WorldWideScience

Sample records for arboviruses risk assessment

  1. Sources of Error in the Estimation of Mosquito Infection Rates Used to Assess Risk of Arbovirus Transmission

    OpenAIRE

    Bustamante, Dulce M.; Lord, Cynthia C.

    2010-01-01

    Infection rate is an estimate of the prevalence of arbovirus infection in a mosquito population. It is assumed that when infection rate increases, the risk of arbovirus transmission to humans and animals also increases. We examined some of the factors that can invalidate this assumption. First, we used a model to illustrate how the proportion of mosquitoes capable of virus transmission, or infectious, is not a constant fraction of the number of infected mosquitoes. Thus, infection rate is not...

  2. [Entomological factors of arboviruses emergences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jourdain, F; Roiz, D; Perrin, Y; Grucker, K; Simard, F; Paupy, C

    2015-08-01

    Arboviruses - viruses transmitted by haematophagous arthropods - are responsible for febrile syndromes, which sometimes include haemorrhagic or neurological symptoms. Human activities have facilitated the emergence of these originally zoonotic viruses and the domestication and spread throughout the world of their major vectors. The last decade has seen significant changes in the epidemiology of arboviruses transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes, particularly in relation to the intercontinental spread of Aedes albopictus. Here, we address the epidemiological consequences of the invasion by this species into Central Africa and Europe in a context of viral globalization. The risk of transmission in these areas is influenced by virus-vector adaptation phenomena as well as environmental phenomena including climate. Faced with these new risks, it is essential to develop competences in entomological and virological surveillance, risk assessment and forecasting of epidemic risk in order to develop strategies for the prevention and control of epidemics. PMID:26141429

  3. Nature, Nurture and Evolution of Intra-Species Variation in Mosquito Arbovirus Transmission Competence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter J. Tabachnick

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mosquitoes vary in their competence or ability to transmit arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses. Many arboviruses cause disease in humans and animals. Identifying the environmental and genetic causes of variation in mosquito competence for arboviruses is one of the great challenges in public health. Progress identifying genetic (nature and environmental (nurture factors influencing mosquito competence for arboviruses is reviewed. There is great complexity in the various traits that comprise mosquito competence. The complex interactions between environmental and genetic factors controlling these traits and the factors shaping variation in Nature are largely unknown. The norms of reaction of specific genes influencing competence, their distributions in natural populations and the effects of genetic polymorphism on phenotypic variation need to be determined. Mechanisms influencing competence are not likely due to natural selection because of the direct effects of the arbovirus on mosquito fitness. More likely the traits for mosquito competence for arboviruses are the effects of adaptations for other functions of these competence mechanisms. Determining these other functions is essential to understand the evolution and distributions of competence for arboviruses. This information is needed to assess risk from mosquito-borne disease, predict new mosquito-arbovirus systems, and provide novel strategies to mitigate mosquito-borne arbovirus transmission.

  4. Potential Arbovirus Emergence and Implications for the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Gould, Ernest Andrew; Higgs, Stephen; Buckley, Alan; Gritsun, Tamara Sergeevna

    2006-01-01

    Arboviruses have evolved a number of strategies to survive environmental challenges. This review examines the factors that may determine arbovirus emergence, provides examples of arboviruses that have emerged into new habitats, reviews the arbovirus situation in western Europe in detail, discusses potential arthropod vectors, and attempts to predict the risk for arbovirus emergence in the United Kingdom. We conclude that climate change is probably the most important requirement for the emerge...

  5. Pathways for entry of livestock arboviruses into Great Britain: assessing the strength of evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, P; Kelly, L; Snary, E L

    2015-04-01

    The emergence of bluetongue virus and Schmallenberg virus in Great Britain (GB) during the last decade has highlighted the need for understanding the relative importance of the various pathways of the entry of livestock arboviruses so as to help focus surveillance and mitigation. This study summarizes what is known for the main routes of entry and assesses the strength of the current evidence for and against. Entry through infected arthropod vectors is considered at the level of each life cycle stage for tick-, biting midge- and mosquito-borne viruses, and while there is evidence that this could happen through most tick and mosquito stages, strong evidence that only exists for entry through adult midges. There is also strong evidence that entry through immature midge stages could not happen. The weight of supporting evidence is strongest for importation of viraemic livestock including horses. While there is some indication of a common pathway for midge-borne viruses from sub-Saharan Africa to GB via Continental Europe, other factors such as maternal transmission in dogs and sheep need to be considered in the light of recent findings. PMID:25580655

  6. Mosquito Immunity against Arboviruses

    OpenAIRE

    Shuzhen Sim; Natapong Jupatanakul; George Dimopoulos

    2014-01-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) pose a significant threat to global health, causing human disease with increasing geographic range and severity. The recent availability of the genome sequences of medically important mosquito species has kick-started investigations into the molecular basis of how mosquito vectors control arbovirus infection. Here, we discuss recent findings concerning the role of the mosquito immune system in antiviral defense, interactions between arboviruses and fundam...

  7. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107......). All patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing a structured professional judgment model: the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scheme. After a follow-up period of 5.6 years, recidivism outcome were obtained from the Danish National Crime...... predictive of violent recidivism compared to static items. In sum, the findings support the use of structured professional judgment models of risk assessment and in particular the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. Findings regarding the importance of the (clinical) structured final risk judgment and...

  8. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radiation hormesis hypothesis is discussed claiming that low dose ionizing radiation shows positive biological effects. The hypothesis could not be demonstrably proved. In the last decade, new disciplines have been developing, such as risk assessment and risk management that, on the basis of proven results and the consideration of all circumstances quantitatively assess and test possible risks. (M.D.). 1 fig

  9. Encephalitic Arboviruses: Emergence, Clinical Presentation, and Neuropathogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi, Hamid; Cain, Matthew D; Klein, Robyn S

    2016-07-01

    Arboviruses are arthropod-borne viruses that exhibit worldwide distribution, contributing to systemic and neurologic infections in a variety of geographical locations. Arboviruses are transmitted to vertebral hosts during blood feedings by mosquitoes, ticks, biting flies, mites, and nits. While the majority of arboviral infections do not lead to neuroinvasive forms of disease, they are among the most severe infectious risks to the health of the human central nervous system. The neurologic diseases caused by arboviruses include meningitis, encephalitis, myelitis, encephalomyelitis, neuritis, and myositis in which virus- and immune-mediated injury may lead to severe, persisting neurologic deficits or death. Here we will review the major families of emerging arboviruses that cause neurologic infections, their neuropathogenesis and host neuroimmunologic responses, and current strategies for treatment and prevention of neurologic infections they cause. PMID:27220616

  10. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  11. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  12. Heart Attack Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Pressure Tools & Resources Stroke More Heart Attack Risk Assessment Updated:May 31,2016 We're sorry, but ... Can You Recognize a Heart Attack? Quiz Risk Assessment Patient Information Sheets: Heart Attack Heart Attack Personal ...

  13. Molecular detection technologies for arboviruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthropod-borne animal viruses (arboviruses) cause significant livestock and economic losses to world agriculture. This paper discusses the current and potential impact of these viruses, as well as the current and developing molecular diagnostic tools for these emerging and re-emerging insect transm...

  14. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  15. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  16. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  17. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP)

  18. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  19. Molecular detection technologies for arboviruses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthropod-borne animal viruses (arboviruses) cause significant livestock and economic losses to world agriculture. This paper discusses the current and potential impact of these viruses, as well as the current and developing molecular diagnostic tools for those emerging and re-emerging insect transmitted viruses affecting livestock and wildlife. The emphasis is on viruses for which there have been significant recent outbreaks in livestock including: bluetongue virus (BTV), epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV), vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). The current readiness for rapid detection of arboviruses is fairly high, but there is a need for global harmonisation and continued evaluation due to the genetic variation of these unique pathogens. The tool chest for molecular detection contains a range of assays from low technology to high-throughput sophisticated devices. (author)

  20. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  1. Arbovirus Prevalence in Mosquitoes, Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    LaBeaud, A. Desiree; Sutherland, Laura J.; Muiruri, Samuel; Muchiri, Eric M.; Gray, Laurie R; Zimmerman, Peter A; Hise, Amy G.; King, Charles H.

    2011-01-01

    Few studies have investigated the many mosquito species that harbor arboviruses in Kenya. During the 2006–2007 Rift Valley fever outbreak in North Eastern Province, Kenya, exophilic mosquitoes were collected from homesteads within 2 affected areas: Gumarey (rural) and Sogan-Godud (urban). Mosquitoes (n = 920) were pooled by trap location and tested for Rift Valley fever virus and West Nile virus. The most common mosquitoes trapped belonged to the genus Culex (75%). Of 105 mosquito pools teste...

  2. Diabetic foot risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodbury, M Gail

    2016-05-01

    Diabetes is a serious chronic disease that results in foot complications for many people world-wide. In 2014, the World Health Organization estimated the global prevalence of diabetes in adults to be 9%. To ascertain the risk that an individual patient might develop a diabetic foot ulcer that could lead to an amputation, clinicians are strongly encouraged to perform a risk assessment. Monteiro-Soares and Dinis-Ribeiro have presented a new DIAbetic FOot Risk Assessment with the acronym DIAFORA. It is different from other risk assessments in that it predicts the risk of developing both diabetic foot ulcers and amputation specifically. The risk variables were derived by regression analysis based on a data set of 293 patients from a high-risk setting, a Hospital Diabetic Foot Clinic, who had diabetes and a diabetic foot ulcers. Clear descriptions of the risk variables are provided as well as sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the risk categories. As an added benefit, likelihood ratios are provided that will help clinicians determine the risk of amputation for individual patients. Having a risk assessment form is important for clinician use and examples exist. A question is raised about the effectiveness of risk assessment and how effectiveness might be determined. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26825436

  3. Tissue Barriers to Arbovirus Infection in Mosquitoes

    OpenAIRE

    Franz, Alexander W. E.; Asher M. Kantor; A. Lorena Passarelli; Clem, Rollie J.

    2015-01-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) circulate in nature between arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts. Arboviruses often cause devastating diseases in vertebrate hosts, but they typically do not cause significant pathology in their arthropod vectors. Following oral acquisition of a viremic bloodmeal from a vertebrate host, the arbovirus disease cycle requires replication in the cellular environment of the arthropod vector. Once the vector has become systemically and persistently infected, ...

  4. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  5. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  6. Public Risk Assessment Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  7. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to assess cardiac risk include: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) : Studies have shown that measuring ... LDL-C but does not respond to typical strategies to lower LDL-C such as diet, exercise, ...

  8. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which they...... are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... for prediction purposes, as measured until now in the literature, is at best questionable in schoolchildren, adolescents and adults. That is not to say these additional factors should not be assessed to help understand the strength of their associations with the disease experience in a particular...

  9. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  10. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  11. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  12. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  13. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH)

  14. Tissue Barriers to Arbovirus Infection in Mosquitoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander W. E. Franz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses circulate in nature between arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts. Arboviruses often cause devastating diseases in vertebrate hosts, but they typically do not cause significant pathology in their arthropod vectors. Following oral acquisition of a viremic bloodmeal from a vertebrate host, the arbovirus disease cycle requires replication in the cellular environment of the arthropod vector. Once the vector has become systemically and persistently infected, the vector is able to transmit the virus to an uninfected vertebrate host. In order to systemically infect the vector, the virus must cope with innate immune responses and overcome several tissue barriers associated with the midgut and the salivary glands. In this review we describe, in detail, the typical arbovirus infection route in competent mosquito vectors. Based on what is known from the literature, we explain the nature of the tissue barriers that arboviruses are confronted with in a mosquito vector and how arboviruses might surmount these barriers. We also point out controversial findings to highlight particular areas that are not well understood and require further research efforts.

  15. Tissue Barriers to Arbovirus Infection in Mosquitoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, Alexander W E; Kantor, Asher M; Passarelli, A Lorena; Clem, Rollie J

    2015-07-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) circulate in nature between arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts. Arboviruses often cause devastating diseases in vertebrate hosts, but they typically do not cause significant pathology in their arthropod vectors. Following oral acquisition of a viremic bloodmeal from a vertebrate host, the arbovirus disease cycle requires replication in the cellular environment of the arthropod vector. Once the vector has become systemically and persistently infected, the vector is able to transmit the virus to an uninfected vertebrate host. In order to systemically infect the vector, the virus must cope with innate immune responses and overcome several tissue barriers associated with the midgut and the salivary glands. In this review we describe, in detail, the typical arbovirus infection route in competent mosquito vectors. Based on what is known from the literature, we explain the nature of the tissue barriers that arboviruses are confronted with in a mosquito vector and how arboviruses might surmount these barriers. We also point out controversial findings to highlight particular areas that are not well understood and require further research efforts. PMID:26184281

  16. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.)

  17. Risk assessment in reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A survey of risk assessment methodology which is being given a lot of attention in the scientific world is presented in this paper. The maximum credible accident approach used for reactor safety assessment in the past has proved inadequate and a probabilistic approach has now caught the fancy of the scientific world. This method took to evaluating single accidents and making them the basis for decisions. This non-probabilistic approach had obvious drawbacks. Most importantly, it undermined less severe accidents which might be more important due to a high frequency of occurrence. (J.A.)

  18. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  19. Environmental epidemiology: risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prentice, R.L.; Whittemore, A.S. (eds.)

    1982-01-01

    Papers presented at the symposium are in the disciplines of biometry, environmental medicine, epidemiology, mathematics, and statistics. Attention is given to assessing risk due to environmental agents, particularly those known to be carcinogenic; both the complex medical issues involved and the mathematical and statistical methodologies used in analysis are presented. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 15 papers for inclusion in the Energy Data Base. (RJC)

  20. Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culiciadae) potential vectors of arbovirus in the Urabá region, Northwest of Colombia Mosquitos (Díptera: Culicidae) vectores potenciales de arbovirus en la región de Urabá, noroccidente de Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    Laura Suárez; Gabriel Parra-Henao

    2011-01-01

    Introduction. Studies directed to investigate ecological parameters of sylvatic mosquitoes populations allows to establish the risk of arbovirus transmission and to bring recommendations for health authorities about prevention, surveillance and control.
    Objective. To establish the diversity and abundance of arbovirus mosquitoes vectors of in rural areas of Apartado and Turbo, Antioquia.
    Materials and methods. Quarterly sampling was done. For mosquito catching in forest f...

  1. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  2. Risk assessment handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established.

  3. Risk assessment handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG&G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers` needs and the product have been established.

  4. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  5. Determinants of Arbovirus Vertical Transmission in Mosquitoes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Lequime

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Vertical transmission (VT and horizontal transmission (HT of pathogens refer to parental and non-parental chains of host-to-host transmission. Combining HT with VT enlarges considerably the range of ecological conditions in which a pathogen can persist, but the factors governing the relative frequency of each transmission mode are poorly understood for pathogens with mixed-mode transmission. Elucidating these factors is particularly important for understanding the epidemiology of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses of public health significance. Arboviruses are primarily maintained by HT between arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts in nature, but are occasionally transmitted vertically in the vector population from an infected female to her offspring, which is a proposed maintenance mechanism during adverse conditions for HT. Here, we review over a century of published primary literature on natural and experimental VT, which we previously assembled into large databases, to identify biological factors associated with the efficiency of arbovirus VT in mosquito vectors. Using a robust statistical framework, we highlight a suite of environmental, taxonomic, and physiological predictors of arbovirus VT. These novel insights contribute to refine our understanding of strategies employed by arboviruses to persist in the environment and cause substantial public health concern. They also provide hypotheses on the biological processes underlying the relative VT frequency for pathogens with mixed-mode transmission that can be tested empirically.

  6. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G;

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria. ...... hampered the synthesis of results. There is a great need to standardize study design, outcome measures and reporting of data in studies on caries risk assessment. The accuracy of prediction models should be validated in at least one independent population.......OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria....... Abstracts and full-text articles were assessed independently by two reviewers. The quality of studies was graded according to the QUADAS tool. The quality of evidence of models and single predictors was assessed using the GRADE approach. RESULTS: Ninety original articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria...

  7. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  8. Practical approaches to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke-Taylor, S

    2001-06-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection. PMID:11594473

  9. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing foodregulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  10. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SIMONBROOKE-TAYLOR

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supple,The World Trade Oranization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.The relevant international organization for food standards,the Codex Alimentarius Commission,recognises risk analysis,and its component parts risk assessment,risk management and risk communication as the basis for scientific decision-making,Risk assessment comprises two activities:hazard evaluation;and exposure estimation.A hazard may be chemical,microbiological or nutritional in origin,The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation y four examples involving:(1) food additives,(2) microiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses,(3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  11. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  12. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  13. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland;

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...... information generated through conducting a risk assessment, such as a risk estimate, ranking of risks, identification of key controlling or risk-generating factors, or highlighting of data gaps,can assist governments in their role of setting national policies, criteria or providing public health advice, and...

  14. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  15. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  16. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sabre J. Coleman; Zalk, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues b...

  17. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  18. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  19. Caries Risk Assessment and Prevention

    OpenAIRE

    SJ Pourhashemi

    2000-01-01

    Over 20 years, several analytical approaches have been designed to predict caries in children."nCaries Risk Assessment is a recently developed technique concern to caries prediction."nThis procedure involves three stages as follows:"n1- Determination and assessment of the dental caries risk factors."n2- Examination and evaluation of each individual child to be specifically diagnosed the level of 3- caries risk e.g. high, moderate and low risk."n3- Recommendation of pr...

  20. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  1. Ghana Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Choudhary, Vikas; D'Alessandro, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Improved agricultural risk management is one of the core enabling actions of the Group of Eight’s (G-8’s) New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition. The Agricultural Risk Management Team (ARMT) of the Agriculture and Environment Services Department of the World Bank conducted an agricultural sector risk assessment to better understand the dynamics of agricultural risks and identify appropriate responses, incorporate agricultural risk perspective into decision-making, and bui...

  2. Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2016-01-01

    In the agricultural sector, risks are inherent and ubiquitous, posing potentially serious consequences for stakeholders and consumers. Risks disrupt supply chains, causing extensive financial and economic losses. Agricultural risks are also the principal cause of transient food insecurity, creating a poverty trap for millions of households across the developing world that enforces a viciou...

  3. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  4. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  5. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  6. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be...... substantial enough to be a risk. A hazard does not necessarily constitute a risk, as efforts can be done to minimize risk by reducing the exposure. Thus, the relationship between hazard and risk must be treated cautiously. Fora robust risk assessment good data on exposure to the substance is needed and...... exposure data for other similarly acting substances are needed for assessing the risk for mixture effects. Such data may, however, often be absent. Toxicological potency, i.e. the lowest dose found to cause adverse effects, has been proposed as one of the key characteristics when evaluating safety of a...

  7. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  8. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    The topics of regulation and risk assessment of nanomaterials have never been more relevant and controversial in Europe than they are at this point in time. In this entry, we present and discuss a number of major pieces of legislation relevant for the regulation of nanomaterials, including REACH...... Foods Regulation. Chemical risk assessment provides a fundamental element in support of existing legislation. Risk assessment is normally said to consist of four elements, i.e., hazard identification, dose–response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Each of these four elements......, the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment...

  9. Mosquito immune responses to arbovirus infections

    OpenAIRE

    Carol D. Blair; Olson, Ken E

    2014-01-01

    The principal mosquito innate immune response to virus infections, RNA interference (RNAi), differs substantially from the immune response to bacterial and fungal infections. The exo-siRNA pathway constitutes the major anti-arboviral RNAi response and its essential genetic components have been identified. Recent research has also implicated the Piwi-interacting RNA pathway in mosquito anti-arboviral immunity, but Piwi gene-family components involved are not well-defined. Arboviruses must evad...

  10. RNA interference targets arbovirus replication in Culicoides cells

    OpenAIRE

    Schnettler, Esther; Ratinier, Maxime; Watson, Mick; Shaw, Andrew E.; McFarlane, Melanie; Varela, Mariana; Elliott, Richard M.; Palmarini, Massimo; Kohl, Alain

    2013-01-01

    Arboviruses are transmitted to vertebrate hosts by biting arthropod vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and midges. These viruses replicate in both arthropods and vertebrates and are thus exposed to different antiviral responses in these organisms. RNA interference (RNAi) is a sequence-specific RNA degradation mechanism that has been shown to play a major role in the antiviral response against arboviruses in mosquitoes. Culicoides midges are important vectors of arboviruses, known to transmit ...

  11. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  12. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  13. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  14. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  15. Genetic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on the induction of germ cell mutations in mammals international and national committees developed concepts for quantifying radiation-induced genetic risk in humans. Genetic effects dominated the thinking o the UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effect of Atomic Radiation) Report in 1958, the BEAR (Biological Effects of Atomic Radiations) Report form the National Academy of Sciences, the National Research Council in 1956, and the British counterpart, the Medical Research Council , in 1956. an interesting personal account of the development of the work of the BEIR (Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations) and UNSCEAR Committee was published recently by Russell. The quality of risk estimation depends on the data base and on the concepts used. The current status of both aspects for quantifying genetic risk is reviewed in this paper

  16. PREVALENCE OF ARBOVIRUS ANTIBODIES AGAINST THE FAMILY Bunyaviridae IN WATER BUFFALOES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Rosário Casseb

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The State of Pará comprises 26% of Brazilian Amazon region where a large diversity of arboviruses has been described. This study sought to assess the prevalence and distribution of haemagglutination-inhibition antibodies against antigens of nine different types of arbovirus of the Bunyaviridae family, where eight were Orthobunyavirus: Guaroa virus, Maguari virus, Tacaiuma virus, Utinga virus, Belem virus, Caraparu virus, Oropouche virus and Catu virus, and one Phlebovirus: Icoaraci virus in sera samples of water buffaloes in Pará State, Brazil. For all Arboviruses investigated there were antibodies, with the exception of Belem virus. Antibodies to Maguari virus were more prevalent (7.33%. The water buffaloes of the present study showed variable levels of antibodies in monotypic and heterotypic reactions that may indicate there are movements from most bunyavirus studied in domestic buffaloes in the state of Pará, and the Maguari virus presents the largest circulation. Therefore, further studies are needed to investigate the role of water buffalo in the maintenance and dispersal of arboviruses, as well as whether these viruses can cause disease in that species, especially in cases of birth defects and abortions.

  17. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the...... life cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize the...

  18. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, ...

  19. Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Leandro Medina

    2015-01-01

    This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that...

  20. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  1. Paraguay Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arce, Carlos; Arias, Diego

    2015-01-01

    This report is the result of a World Bank mission that visited Paraguay in June 2013 at the request of the Government of Paraguay. The mission’s objective was to identify, quantify, and prioritize agriculture risks that determine the volatility of agriculture gross domestic product (GDP), based on a methodology to assess sector risks developed by the World Bank. The methodology stipulates ...

  2. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... know before using this tool: The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool was designed for use by doctors and other health providers with their patients. If you are not a health ... your personal risk of colorectal cancer. (Colorectal cancer is another way ...

  3. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  4. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  6. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  7. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  8. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed with......, while the rest displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better...... the AMSTAR tool and the primary publications according to the Cochrane handbook. The quality was rated as low, moderate, or high risk of bias. The findings were descriptively synthesised and the quality of evidence was graded according to GRADE. For the recommendations of practice, the SIGN scores...

  9. Enveloped virus-like particles as vaccines against pathogenic arboviruses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pijlman, G.P.

    2015-01-01

    Arthropod-borne arboviruses form a continuous threat to human and animal health, but few arboviral vaccines are currently available. Advances in expression technology for complex, enveloped virus-like particles (eVLPs) create new opportunities to develop potent vaccines against pathogenic arboviruse

  10. Insights into Arbovirus Evolution and Adaptation from Experimental Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander T. Ciota

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses are maintained in nature by cycling between vertebrate hosts and haematophagous invertebrate vectors. These viruses are responsible for causing a significant public health burden throughout the world, with over 100 species having the capacity to cause human disease. Arbovirus outbreaks in previously naïve environments demonstrate the potential of these pathogens for expansion and emergence, possibly exacerbated more recently by changing climates. These recent outbreaks, together with the continued devastation caused by endemic viruses, such as Dengue virus which persists in many areas, demonstrate the need to better understand the selective pressures that shape arbovirus evolution. Specifically, a comprehensive understanding of host-virus interactions and how they shape both host-specific and virus‑specific evolutionary pressures is needed to fully evaluate the factors that govern the potential for host shifts and geographic expansions. One approach to advance our understanding of the factors influencing arbovirus evolution in nature is the use of experimental studies in the laboratory. Here, we review the contributions that laboratory passage and experimental infection studies have made to the field of arbovirus adaptation and evolution, and how these studies contribute to the overall field of arbovirus evolution. In particular, this review focuses on the areas of evolutionary constraints and mutant swarm dynamics; how experimental results compare to theoretical predictions; the importance of arbovirus ecology in shaping viral swarms; and how current knowledge should guide future questions relevant to understanding arbovirus evolution.

  11. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  12. Insect-Specific Virus Discovery: Significance for the Arbovirus Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bethany G. Bolling

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses, especially those transmitted by mosquitoes, are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in humans and animals worldwide. Recent discoveries indicate that mosquitoes are naturally infected with a wide range of other viruses, many within taxa occupied by arboviruses that are considered insect-specific. Over the past ten years there has been a dramatic increase in the literature describing novel insect-specific virus detection in mosquitoes, which has provided new insights about viral diversity and evolution, including that of arboviruses. It has also raised questions about what effects the mosquito virome has on arbovirus transmission. Additionally, the discovery of these new viruses has generated interest in their potential use as biological control agents as well as novel vaccine platforms. The arbovirus community will benefit from the growing database of knowledge concerning these newly described viral endosymbionts, as their impacts will likely be far reaching.

  13. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  14. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  15. Bayesian methods in risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The need for a consistent framework for the analysis of large nuclear power plant safety, not provided for by conventional methods of statistics and reliability theory, prompted the present article. The qualification of uncertainties depends crucially on the particular way that the assessor views probability. Two principal schools of thought are the subjectivistic approach advocated by de Finetti, and the frequentist school advocated by von Mises. The point of view of the author is the subjective one. The foundations of the proposed approach and a discussion of several topics relevant to risk assessment follow with applications to the specialization of generic data for site-specific risk studies, the assessment of frequency of fires in nuclear plant compartments, and the use of expert opinion in risk assessments

  16. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    results indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major...... challenge in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...

  17. Risk Assessment for Banking Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Helmut Elsinger; Alfred Lehar; Martin Summer

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we suggest a new approach to risk assessment for banks. Rather than looking at them individually we try to undertake an analysis at the level of the banking system. Such a perspective is necessary because the complicated network of mutual credit obligations can make the actual risk exposure of banks invisible at the level of individual institutions. We apply our framework to a cross section of individual bank data as they are usually collected at the central bank. Using standard...

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  19. [Zika virus: Another emerging arbovirus in Venezuela?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero Nereida

    2015-09-01

    Current health conditions of Venezuela, together with the tropical proliferation of different types of Aedes (aegypti and albopictus), suggest the arrival to this country of ZIKA virus (ZIKV). The Pan American Health Organization urges Latin American countries to take measures to prevent the ZIKV entry and advises that these measures must be designed to detect the introduction of ZIKV in an area, track its spread and actively monitor the disease. In Venezuela and other Latin-American countries, where endemicity is high for other arboviruses such as dengue arid chikungunya, health authorities should strengthen their surveillance systems to detect early and timely introduction of ZIKV ap.d refine diagnostic methods to confirm the infection rate; however, the high incidence of cases due those viral agents reflects weakened and poorly timed insensitive monitoring systems, as well as, poor vector control measures, arising the questions: will this arbovirus pop in our country, will it set as the other as edemicepidemic and lead to alter their clinical behavior and severity of the disease? PMID:26710538

  20. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  1. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  2. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  3. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  4. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  5. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met

  6. Radiation protection and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In its publications 22 and 26, ICRP recommends a method of optimization that requires that first the risks of the considered activity be quantitatively assessed. This paper deals with the transportation of radioactive material. Several aspects are examined: assessing risk quantitatively (as an expected number of health effects), determining the most cost-effective alternative options and applying the method to a practical example. Two of the possible applications of the results are presented in the case of transportation of UF6 in France: 1) the cost-effectiveness analysis of a set of alternative protection measures and 2) the comparison between such measures affecting risks in nuclear transportation and other measures dealing with different steps of the whole uranium fuel cycle. (HK)

  7. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be......The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage and...... exposure data for other similarly acting substances are needed for assessing the risk for mixture effects. Such data may, however, often be absent. Toxicological potency, i.e. the lowest dose found to cause adverse effects, has been proposed as one of the key characteristics when evaluating safety of a...

  8. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  9. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  10. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10-4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10-4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  11. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  12. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  13. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  14. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  15. Automating Spreadsheet Discovery & Risk Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Perry, Eric

    2008-01-01

    There have been many articles and mishaps published about the risks of uncontrolled spreadsheets in today's business environment, including non-compliance, operational risk, errors, and fraud all leading to significant loss events. Spreadsheets fall into the realm of end user developed applications and are often absent the proper safeguards and controls an IT organization would enforce for enterprise applications. There is also an overall lack of software programming discipline enforced in how spreadsheets are developed. However, before an organization can apply proper controls and discipline to critical spreadsheets, an accurate and living inventory of spreadsheets across the enterprise must be created, and all critical spreadsheets must be identified. As such, this paper proposes an automated approach to the initial stages of the spreadsheet management lifecycle - discovery, inventory and risk assessment. Without the use of technology, these phases are often treated as a one-off project. By leveraging techn...

  16. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  17. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    OpenAIRE

    Saša T. Bakrač; Mladen M. Vuruna; MIŠKO M. MILANOVIĆ

    2012-01-01

    Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be imple...

  18. Apollo 13 Risk Assessment Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Bukovics, István

    2007-01-01

    Fault tree methodology is the most widespread risk assessment tool by which one is able to predict - in principle - the outcome of an event whenever it is reduced to simpler ones by the logic operations conjunction and disjunction according to the basics of Boolean algebra. The object of this work is to present an algorithm by which, using the corresponding computer code, one is able to predict - in practice - the outcome of an event whenever its fault tree is given in the u...

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  20. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  1. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  2. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  3. Apoptosis, autophagy and unfolded proteinresponse pathways in Arbovirus replicationand pathogenesis

    OpenAIRE

    Iranpour, Mahmoud; Moghadam, Adel R; Yazdi, Mina; Ande, Sudharsana R; Alizadeh, Javad; Wiechec, Emilia; Lindsay, Robbin; Drebot, Michael; Coombs, Kevin M; Ghavami, Saeid

    2016-01-01

    Arboviruses are pathogens that widely affect the health of people in different communities around the world. Recently, a few successful approaches toward production of effective vaccines against some of these pathogens have been developed, but treatment and prevention of the resulting diseases remain a major health and research concern. The arbovirus infection and replication processes are complex, and many factors are involved in their regulation. Apoptosis, autophagy and the unfolded protei...

  4. Intertwined arbovirus transmission activity: reassessing the transmission cycle paradigm.

    OpenAIRE

    LuisAdrianDiaz

    2013-01-01

    Arboviruses are emerging/reemerging infectious agents worldwide. The factors within this scenario include vector and host population fluctuations, climatic changes, anthropogenic activities that disturb ecosystems, an increase in international flights, human mobility, and genetic mutations that allow spill-over phenomenon. Arboviruses are maintained by biologic transmission among vectors and hosts. Sometimes this biological transmission is specific and includes one vector and host species suc...

  5. Insights into Arbovirus Evolution and Adaptation from Experimental Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Ciota, Alexander T.; Kramer, Laura D

    2010-01-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are maintained in nature by cycling between vertebrate hosts and haematophagous invertebrate vectors. These viruses are responsible for causing a significant public health burden throughout the world, with over 100 species having the capacity to cause human disease. Arbovirus outbreaks in previously naïve environments demonstrate the potential of these pathogens for expansion and emergence, possibly exacerbated more recently by changing climates. These re...

  6. Insect-Specific Virus Discovery: Significance for the Arbovirus Community

    OpenAIRE

    Bolling, Bethany G.; Scott C. Weaver; Tesh, Robert B.; Nikos Vasilakis

    2015-01-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), especially those transmitted by mosquitoes, are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in humans and animals worldwide. Recent discoveries indicate that mosquitoes are naturally infected with a wide range of other viruses, many within taxa occupied by arboviruses that are considered insect-specific. Over the past ten years there has been a dramatic increase in the literature describing novel insect-specific virus detection in mosquitoes, which ha...

  7. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  8. Caries risk assessment: why, when and how?

    OpenAIRE

    Antonsen, Grethe Marie; Hunstad, Marie Nøvik

    2011-01-01

    This literature study reviewed papers on caries risk assessment on patients` above 18 years published between 2000 and 2010. In the present study three different methods are discussed: The Cariogram, CAMBRA ( Caries Management By Risk Assessment) and the UIT – method (University of Tromsø). The purpose of caries risk assessments are to find out which risk level the patient has and try to lower the risk. By evaluating the protective and pathologic factors involved in the carious disease the de...

  9. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-01-01

    Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT) multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions ...

  10. Rationalising Risk Assessment: Applications to Agricultural Business

    OpenAIRE

    Hardaker, J. Brian; Lien, Gudbrand D.

    2007-01-01

    To concentrate on treating the most serious risks, methods of business risk management usually seek to identify the main risks and to assess their relative importance. Risks are typically assessed in terms of their chances of occurrence and the severity of their consequences. The assessments may be performed by qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative analysis. This paper is focussed on quantitative methods, requiring assessments of specific probabilities and values for consequences.

  11. A Total Risk Assessment in an Enterprise

    OpenAIRE

    Wasilewski Wiesław

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is an important task of risk management. It must take various aspects into consideration. For this reason the risk management involves various scientific disciplines: mathematics, psychology, law etc. Every institution must deal with many different kinds of risk. The question is: in order to ensure the continuation of the company, is it important to assess individual risk or to identify and evaluate the entire overall risk to the enterprise. This article aims to present a meth...

  12. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify t

  13. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  14. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    OpenAIRE

    Gaetano Liuzzo; Stefano Bentley; Federica Giacometti; Silvia Piva; Andrea Serraino

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed.

  15. Implementing Cargo Movement into Climate Based Risk Assessment of Vector-Borne Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Margarete Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito has rapidly spread around the globe. Global shipment of goods contributes to its permanent introduction. Invaded regions are facing novel and serious public health concerns, especially regarding the transmission of formerly non-endemic arboviruses such as dengue and chikungunya. The further development and potential spread to other regions depends largely on their climatic suitability. Here, we have developed a tool for identifying and prioritizing European areas at risk for the establishment of Aedes albopictus by taking into account, for the first time, the freight imports from this mosquito’s endemic countries and the climate suitability at harbors and their surrounding regions. In a second step we consider the further transport of containers by train and inland waterways because these types of transport can be well controlled. We identify European regions at risk, where a huge amount of transported goods meet climatically suitable conditions for the disease vector. The current and future suitability of the climate for Aedes albopictus was modeled by a correlative niche model approach and the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. This risk assessment combines impacts of globalization and global warming to improve effective and proactive interventions in disease vector surveillance and control actions.

  16. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP)

  17. Risk assessment as a prediction of recidivism

    OpenAIRE

    Zavackis, Anvars

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment and management is one of the key organising frameworks of crime control in modern society. The aim of the thesis is to research risk assessment practices in predicting crime recidivism and to assess the consequences of implementing these practices, also providing for description of historical, social, cultural and political aspects of their development and maintenance. The initial analysis of risk is a theoretical one, employing insights from different risk sociology theories....

  18. Financial Risk Assessment in Project Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Sveinbjörn Jónsson 1981

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines financial risk assessment in the project selection process. In the project selection process the feasibility analysis is used to evaluate projects, with the financial feasibility as the dominating factor. In recent years more emphasis has been on risk assessment in project management, and methods of assessing financial risk have been developed. Project managers are realising the opportunities that risk management entails. The findings of this paper are that the project sel...

  19. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  20. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  1. European risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, M.H.A.; Luiijf, H.A.M.; Nieuwenhuijs, A.H.; Cavenne, F.; Ulisse, A.; Bridegeman, G.

    2008-01-01

    Most risk assessment methodologies aim at the risk at the level of an individual organization or company. The European Union commissioned a study to define the elements for a uniform and scalable risk assessment methodology which takes into account critical infrastructure dependencies across organiz

  2. Nature, Nurture and Evolution of Intra-Species Variation in Mosquito Arbovirus Transmission Competence

    OpenAIRE

    Tabachnick, Walter J.

    2013-01-01

    Mosquitoes vary in their competence or ability to transmit arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses). Many arboviruses cause disease in humans and animals. Identifying the environmental and genetic causes of variation in mosquito competence for arboviruses is one of the great challenges in public health. Progress identifying genetic (nature) and environmental (nurture) factors influencing mosquito competence for arboviruses is reviewed. There is great complexity in the various traits that compris...

  3. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  4. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  5. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  6. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG)

  7. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  8. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  9. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  10. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.;

    2009-01-01

    A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...... the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using...... probabilistic models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  11. Emerging arboviruses and public health challenges in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima-Camara, Tamara Nunes

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Environmental modification by anthropogenic actions, disordered urban growth, globalization of international exchange and climate change are some factors that help the emergence and dissemination of human infectious diseases transmitted by vectors. This review discusses the recent entry of three arboviruses in Brazil: Chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus, focusing on the challenges for the Country’s public health. The Brazilian population is exposed to infections caused by these three arboviruses widely distributed on the national territory and associated with humans. Without effective vaccine and specific treatment, the maintainance and integration of a continuos entomological and epidemiological surveillance are important so we can set methods to control and prevent these arboviruses in the Country. PMID:27355468

  12. Emerging arboviruses and public health challenges in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara Nunes Lima-Camara

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Environmental modification by anthropogenic actions, disordered urban growth, globalization of international exchange and climate change are some factors that help the emergence and dissemination of human infectious diseases transmitted by vectors. This review discusses the recent entry of three arboviruses in Brazil: Chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus, focusing on the challenges for the Country’s public health. The Brazilian population is exposed to infections caused by these three arboviruses widely distributed on the national territory and associated with humans. Without effective vaccine and specific treatment, the maintainance and integration of a continuos entomological and epidemiological surveillance are important so we can set methods to control and prevent these arboviruses in the Country.

  13. The Insect Microbiome Modulates Vector Competence for Arboviruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natapong Jupatanakul

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Diseases caused by arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses, such as Dengue, West Nile, and Chikungunya, constitute a major global health burden and are increasing in incidence and geographic range. The natural microbiota of insect vectors influences various aspects of host biology, such as nutrition, reproduction, metabolism, and immunity, and recent studies have highlighted the ability of insect-associated bacteria to reduce vector competence for arboviruses and other pathogens. This reduction can occur through mechanisms, such as immune response activation, resource competition, or the production of anti-viral molecules. Studying the interactions between insect vectors and their microbiota is an important step toward developing alternative strategies for arbovirus transmission control.

  14. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  15. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  16. 78 FR 23901 - Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-23

    ... Food Safety and Inspection Service Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail... risk assessment (QRA), ``Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens..., approach, and findings of the draft ``Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in...

  17. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  18. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According ...

  19. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  20. Facts and values in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cross, Frank B

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy.

  1. [Forest health ecological risk assessment in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Fengjin; Ouyang, Hua; Cheng, Shulan; Zhang, Qiang

    2004-02-01

    Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management. PMID:15146655

  2. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky;

    2001-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En......-vironmental Design of Industrial Products) developed in Denmark, respectively. A very important feature of LCA is the relative assessment due to the use of a functional unit. Risk assessment on the other hand is an absolute assessment, which may require very specific and detailed information on e.g. the exposure...

  3. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  4. Practical Education through Risk Assessment Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokai, Akihiro

    Although, the staff for assessing environmental risk of chemicals is required in individual units of industrial sectors, there are very few systemic academic curriculums on risk assessment of chemicals in Japanese institutions of higher education. In order to meet such a social needs, Osaka University opened a limited-period program of environmental risk management for both students and working people in 2005. The author describes the contribution of his experience in offering a course on environmental risk assessment of chemicals as a part of the program. The course afforded students a kind of practical training for risk assessment. This paper also involves what to do for strengthening the education activity of risk assessment.

  5. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  6. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  7. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  8. Technological risks - assessment and management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The technological reliability of products, equipment and processes plays an ever increasing role in political motivation - and not only with respect to environmental questions. Present day hazard potential, risk acceptance and the estimation of the consequences of technical risks are dealt with on the basis of the past history of technological risks. The mechanisms for coping with these risks and the unavoidable ethical implications are then considered. (orig.)

  9. Risk assessment of plant protection products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardy T

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR Panel provides independent scientific advice in the field of risk assessment of plant protection products (PPPs, pesticides. Since its establishment in 2003 under Regulation (EC No 178/2002, it has delivered a series of scientific outputs in support of evaluation of pesticide active substances, establishing scientific principles and guidance documents in the field of pesticide risk assessment and in support of decision making of European Union (EU law makers. Next to a series of scientific opinions evaluating specific adverse effects of PPPs for human health (like for instance carcinogenicity the Panel also delivered scientific opinions on general principles in the field of human health risk assessment (like reference value setting and is, in particular over the last years, very much engaged in development of methodologies to meet new challenges in regulatory risk assessments such as assessment of toxicity of pesticide metabolites and potential cumulative effects of pesticides to human health. Fate, behaviour and transformation of pesticides after their application and consequent release to the environment are a major aspect of pesticide risk assessment. The PPR Panel has achieved major accomplishments by delivering guidance and scientific opinions on degradation in soil, exposure of soil organisms and assessment of environmental risks by use of pesticides in greenhouses or grown under cover. A series of scientific opinions have been delivered also in the field of environmental risk assessment of pesticides. Scientific output covered specific issues arising in the peer review of specific active substances, revision of data requirements, development of risk assessment methodologies and the development of guidance documents. A major milestone of the PPR Panel was the development of the methodological framework for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk

  10. GHGT-11 - Integrated Carbon Risk Assessment (ICARAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollenweber, J.; Busby, D.; Wessel-Berg, D.; Nepveu, M.; Bossie Codreanu, D.; Grimstad, A-A.; Sijacic, D.; Maurand, N.; Lothe, A.; Wahl, F.; Polak, S.; Boot, H.; Grøver, A.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper an integrated workflow is described for risk assessment within CCS. IFPEN, SINTEF and TNO joined forces to define a comprehensive and transparent risk assessment methodology. The tools developed in these institutes are thereby integrated. The workflow can be applied to proposed carbon

  11. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to aquat

  12. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process. PMID:12298344

  13. Collection & Processing of Medically Important Arthropods for Arbovirus Isolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudia, W. Daniel; Chamberlain, Roy W.

    The methods given for collecting, preserving, and processing mosquitoes and other archropods for isolation of arboviruses are those used by the National Communicable Disease Center. Techniques of collecting mosquitoes as they bite, using light or bait traps, and from their daytime resting sites are described and illustrated. Details of subsequent…

  14. Collection & Processing of Vertebrate Specimens for Arbovirus Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudia, W. Daniel; And Others

    Described are techniques used by the National Communicable Disease Center in obtaining blood and tissues from man and other vertebrates for arbovirus isolation and antibody studies. Also included are techniques for capturing and handling vertebrates; banding and marking; restraining and bleeding; storing of specimens to preserve antibody and…

  15. Meaning and contextualisation in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an analysis of the construction of risk as a social process. It provides a critique of Jasanoff's 'two cultures' model of the risk assessment community, arguing that corresponding rhetorics serve to obscure the hybrid nature of risk. It is argued that a new perspective, based on the contextualisation of expert scientific knowledge is needed, which transcends reductionist tendencies that view risk assessment as simply about either material artefacts or social constructions. Such approaches have the potential, it is suggested, to address not only the complexity but also the moral and political dilemmas associated with a wide range of risk management problems

  16. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  17. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  18. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  19. Statistics review 11: Assessing risk

    OpenAIRE

    Bewick, Viv; Cheek, Liz; Ball, Jonathan

    2004-01-01

    Relative risk and odds ratio have been introduced in earlier reviews (see Statistics reviews 3, 6 and 8). This review describes the calculation and interpretation of their confidence intervals. The different circumstances in which the use of either the relative risk or odds ratio is appropriate and their relative merits are discussed. A method of measuring the impact of exposure to a risk factor is introduced. Measures of the success of a treatment using data from clinical trials are also con...

  20. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.;

    2012-01-01

    types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...... of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  1. Survey: Risk Assessment for Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Drissi S.; Houmani H.; Medromi H.

    2013-01-01

    with the increase in the growth of cloud computing and the changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers, the cloud consumers should be aware of the risks and vulnerabilities present in the current cloud computing environment. An information security risk assessment is designed specifically for that task. However, there is lack of structured risk assessment approach to do it. This paper aims to survey existing knowledge re...

  2. Mathematical Approach to Security Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Vrabel; Marcel Abas; Pavol Tanuska; Pavel Vazan; Michal Kebisek; Michal Elias; Zuzana Sutova; Dusan Pavliak

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to provide a mathematical threat modeling methodology and a threat risk assessment tool that may assist security consultants at assessing the security risks in their protected systems/plants, nuclear power plants and stores of hazardous substances: explosive atmospheres and flammable and combustible gases and liquids, and so forth, and at building an appropriate risk mitigation policy. The probability of a penetration into the protected objects is estimated by com...

  3. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  4. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... life cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize the...

  5. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  6. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH)

  7. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  8. Detection of arboviruses and other micro-organisms in experimentally infected mosquitoes using massively parallel sequencing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Hall-Mendelin

    Full Text Available Human disease incidence attributed to arbovirus infection is increasing throughout the world, with effective control interventions limited by issues of sustainability, insecticide resistance and the lack of effective vaccines. Several promising control strategies are currently under development, such as the release of mosquitoes trans-infected with virus-blocking Wolbachia bacteria. Implementation of any control program is dependent on effective virus surveillance and a thorough understanding of virus-vector interactions. Massively parallel sequencing has enormous potential for providing comprehensive genomic information that can be used to assess many aspects of arbovirus ecology, as well as to evaluate novel control strategies. To demonstrate proof-of-principle, we analyzed Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus experimentally infected with dengue, yellow fever or chikungunya viruses. Random amplification was used to prepare sufficient template for sequencing on the Personal Genome Machine. Viral sequences were present in all infected mosquitoes. In addition, in most cases, we were also able to identify the mosquito species and mosquito micro-organisms, including the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. Importantly, naturally occurring Wolbachia strains could be differentiated from strains that had been trans-infected into the mosquito. The method allowed us to assemble near full-length viral genomes and detect other micro-organisms without prior sequence knowledge, in a single reaction. This is a step toward the application of massively parallel sequencing as an arbovirus surveillance tool. It has the potential to provide insight into virus transmission dynamics, and has applicability to the post-release monitoring of Wolbachia in mosquito populations.

  9. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments - A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-03-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  10. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  11. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Zhengchao Ma; Dan Zhang; Wangyang Wei; Chunlei Yang; Qingtao Wu; Mingchuan Zhang; Ruijuan Zheng

    2013-01-01

    In terms of Internet of Things (IOT) system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi...

  12. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Voss, T.; Lenstra, Arjen K.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is currently under development for deployment. We show how to find a risk mitigation strategy that is optimal with respect to the model used and the available budget.

  13. Risk Assessment for Biodiversity: an integrated approach

    OpenAIRE

    Sala, S.; Vighi, M.

    2008-01-01

    Performing a risk assessment for biodiversity is a difficult task because it covers several issues and most of them suffer for a lack of crucial information. Several indicators have been developed to assess some aspect of biodiversity on the national, international or global scale but they often do not cover the complexity of the problem..This work represents an attempt for developing, within ALARM Project, a tool for biodiversity risk assessment that integrates approaches and results coming...

  14. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    OpenAIRE

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P. M.; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; Egmond , R. van

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high pri...

  15. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengchao Ma

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In terms of Internet of Things (IOT system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi-rule mapping relationship between the qualitative input of safety indicators and the quantitative reasoning of self-assessment. Finally, we build security risk assessment simulation platform, and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm in the premise of substantiating the risk level and the safety criterion domain.

  16. Survey: Risk Assessment for Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drissi S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available with the increase in the growth of cloud computing and the changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers, the cloud consumers should be aware of the risks and vulnerabilities present in the current cloud computing environment. An information security risk assessment is designed specifically for that task. However, there is lack of structured risk assessment approach to do it. This paper aims to survey existing knowledge regarding risk assessment for cloud computing and analyze existing use cases from cloud computing to identify the level of risk assessment realization in state of art systems and emerging challenges for future research.

  17. Models to Assess the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Valeria TOMA

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Closely related to financial risk assessment, one of the main concerns of the organizations should be the evaluation of bankruptcy risk, in this period of slow economic growth. Organization bankruptcies have increased in recent years worldwide. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the methods and models for forecasting bankruptcy of organizations, for the bankruptcy risk assessment are seeing for the health financing of an entity in financial accounting diagnosis and that the organizations requires assessment of risks accompanying the work, in which some signals fragility (vulnerable health this and other projected bankruptcy (insolvability threatens its survival (continuity. The bankruptcy risk assessment is important for profit-seeking investors because they must know how to value a company in or near bankruptcy is an important skill, but to detect any signs of looming bankruptcy is necessary to calculate and to analyse all kinds of financial rations: working capital, profitability, debt levels and liquidity.

  18. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  19. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  20. Principles of multi risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolov, Elenior; Popovski, Orce; Smileski, Rose; Petreski, Drage

    2012-01-01

    Several risks impend on the environment, on public and private properties, on strategic and priceless infrastructures in any inhabited area of our planet. They are generated by different sources, both natural and anthropogenic, and have different relevance depending on the synergy between the generated events and on the peculiar interaction with the region where they break out. The evaluation of risks related to different sources is generally done through independent analyses, adopting dis...

  1. Tajikistan Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Broka, Sandra; Giertz, Åsa; Christensen, Garry; Hanif, Charity; Rasmussen, Debra

    2016-01-01

    Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of mor...

  2. Security risk assessment handbook a complete guide for performing security risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Landoll, Douglas J

    2005-01-01

    The Security Risk Assessment Handbook: A Complete Guide for Performing Security Risk Assessments provides detailed insight into precisely how to conduct an information security risk assessment. Designed for security professionals and their customers who want a more in-depth understanding of the risk assessment process, this volume contains real-world advice that promotes professional development. It also enables security consumers to better negotiate the scope and rigor of a security assessment, effectively interface with a security assessment team, deliver insightful comments on a draft repor

  3. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used as a...... risk appraisal phase to describe effects of various factors on different health outcomes. Consequently, HIA is typically led by a large, preferably intersectoral steering group with representatives of communities at risk. Risk assessment, in contrary, is mainly a licensed scientific process completed...... by licensed experts and lacks participatory approach. According to our findings, to be able to manage the analysis of the complex impact structure of various planned measures in HIA, the comprehensive assessment of health effects requires the analysis of the full impact scheme and must follow each...

  4. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  5. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  6. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  7. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  8. Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Varazanashvili, Otar; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Mukhadze, Teimuraz; Gvencadze, Aleksandre

    2014-05-01

    Risks of natural hazards caused by natural disaster are closely related to the development process of society. The high level of natural disasters in many countries makes necessary to work out the national programs and strategy. The main goal of these programs is to reduce the natural disasters risk and caused losses. Risk mitigation is the cornerstone of the approach to reduce the nation's vulnerability to disasters from natural hazards. So proper investigation and assessment of natural hazards and vulnerability of the element at risk to hazards is very important for an effective and proper assessment of risk. This work issues a call for advance planning and action to reduce natural disaster risks, notably seismic risk through the investigation of vulnerability and seismic hazard for Georgia. Firstly, detail inventory map of element at risk was created. Here elements at risk are comprised of buildings and population. Secondly, seismic hazard maps were calculated based on modern approach of selecting and ranking global and regional ground motion prediction equation for region. Thirdly, on the bases of empirical data that was collected for some earthquake intensity based vulnerability study were completed for Georgian buildings. Finally, probabilistic seismic risk assessment in terms of structural damage and casualties were calculated for the territory of Georgia using obtained results. This methodology gave prediction of damage and casualty for a given probability of recurrence, based on a probabilistic seismic hazard model, population distribution, inventory, and vulnerability of buildings.

  9. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  10. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  11. Safety Factors in Pesticide Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, N.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G. A. J. M.

    to secure that the methodology is adequate. As new knowledge surfaces the risk assessment procedures develops. The present report is a contribution to the development of safety factors used to account for the uncertainty when · extrapolating from the results of test with a single species in the......Foreword It has become common practice to protect the environment from hazardous chemicals by use of risk assessment to establish environmental concentration at which only limited damage to the ecosystem can be expected. The methods and tools applied in the risk assessment need constant evaluation...... safety factors used in pesticide risk assessment: the variability in species sensitivities, and the relationship between acute LC50's and chronic NOEC's....

  12. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  13. Salivary Biomarkers for Caries Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Lihong; Shi, Wenyuan

    2013-01-01

    Saliva contains various microbes and host biological components that could be used for caries risk assessment. This review focuses on the research topics that connect dental caries with saliva, including both the microbial and host components within saliva.

  14. Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humans and environmental species are rarely exposed to single chemicals. These chemicals typically affect multiple tissues through multiple modes of action, which may depend on the dose. Mixtures risk assessment may employ dose response information from the mixture of interest,...

  15. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...

  16. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  17. Bayesian networks for enterprise risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bonafede, C E

    2006-01-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover qualitative data must be converted in numerical values to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Network is a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a Bayesian networks in the parti...

  18. Risk assessment of plant protection products

    OpenAIRE

    Hardy T; Bopp S; Egsmose M; Fontier H; Mohimont L; Steinkellner H; Streissl F

    2012-01-01

    EFSA’s Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR Panel) provides independent scientific advice in the field of risk assessment of plant protection products (PPPs, pesticides). Since its establishment in 2003 under Regulation (EC) No 178/2002, it has delivered a series of scientific outputs in support of evaluation of pesticide active substances, establishing scientific principles and guidance documents in the field of pesticide risk assessment and in support of decis...

  19. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  20. Risk Assessment Techniques for Civil Aviation Security

    OpenAIRE

    Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimisation of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantifi...

  1. Risk assessment in Obsessive Compulsive Disorder

    OpenAIRE

    Veale, David; Freeston, M; Krebs, Georgina; Heyman, Isobel; Salkovskis, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Some people with obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) experience recurrent intrusive sexual, aggressive or death-related thoughts and as a result may be subjected to lengthy or inappropriate risk assessments. These apparent ‘primary’ risks can be dealt with relatively easily through a careful understanding of the disorder’s phenomenology. However, there are other, less obvious ‘secondary’ risks, which require more careful consideration. This article discusses the differentiation of intrusive t...

  2. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  3. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  4. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as currently

  5. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10-5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10-7/year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency for

  6. Problèmes actuels des arbovirus en Centrafrique

    OpenAIRE

    Mathiot, C.C.; Gonzalez, Jean-paul; Georges, A J

    1988-01-01

    19 arbovirus pathogènes pour l'homme sont présents en République Centrafricaine où les enquêtes séroépidémiologiques indiquent une circulation active de ces virus. Dans la majorité des cas le tableau clinique de ces infections est bénin. Cependant 3 arbovirus ont été récemment à l'origine d'infections mortelles. Le virus West-Nile a été isolé chez 4 malades atteints d'hépatite en 1983, deux malades ont succombé de la Fièvre jaune en 1985 et 1986, et entre 1983 et 1986, le virus de la fièvre d...

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  8. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  9. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeger M

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU. Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils, application of spatial spread models, re-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU Plant Health Regime is being formulated. The legislative consequences of the revision will be of considerable significance for the work of the Plant Health Panel.

  10. Arbovirus infections in several Ontario mammals, 1975-1980.

    OpenAIRE

    Artsob, H; Spence, L; Th'ng, C; Lampotang, V; Johnston, D.; MacInnes, C; Matejka, F; Voigt, D; Watt, I

    1986-01-01

    Serological studies for arboviruses were conducted on 725 animal sera collected in 22 Ontario townships between 1975 and 1980 including 44 coyote (Canis latrans), 277 red fox (Vulpes vulpes), 192 raccoon (Procyon lotor) and 212 striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis). Hemagglutination inhibition antibodies to two flaviviruses, namely St. Louis encephalitis and Powassan were found in 50% of coyote, 47% of skunk, 26% of fox and 10% of raccoon sera. Similarly, hemagglutination inhibition antibodies to...

  11. Emerging arboviruses and public health challenges in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Tamara Nunes Lima-Camara

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Environmental modification by anthropogenic actions, disordered urban growth, globalization of international exchange and climate change are some factors that help the emergence and dissemination of human infectious diseases transmitted by vectors. This review discusses the recent entry of three arboviruses in Brazil: Chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus, focusing on the challenges for the Country’s public health. The Brazilian population is exposed to infections caused by these th...

  12. Evolution of Mosquito-Based Arbovirus Surveillance Systems in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    van den Hurk, Andrew F.; Sonja Hall-Mendelin; Johansen, Cheryl A.; David Warrilow; Ritchie, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    Control of arboviral disease is dependent on the sensitive and timely detection of elevated virus activity or the identification of emergent or exotic viruses. The emergence of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in northern Australia revealed numerous problems with performing arbovirus surveillance in remote locations. A sentinel pig programme detected JEV activity, although there were a number of financial, logistical, diagnostic and ethical limitations. A system was developed which detected ...

  13. Rapid selection against arbovirus-induced apoptosis during infection of a mosquito vector

    OpenAIRE

    O’Neill, Katelyn; Olson, Bradley J. S. C.; Huang, Ning; Unis, Dave; Clem, Rollie J.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the factors that cause mosquitoes to resist arbovirus infection could lead to new strategies to control disease transmission. One antiviral response that may play a role in mosquito immunity is apoptosis, a type of cell suicide that is often induced by virus infection. However, apoptosis is rarely seen in arbovirus-infected mosquitoes. To understand why, we infected mosquitoes with an arbovirus that expresses a proapoptotic gene called reaper and found that the Reaper-expressing...

  14. Development and field evaluation of the sentinel mosquito arbovirus capture kit (SMACK)

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Brian J.; Kerlin, Tim; Hall-Mendelin, Sonja; van den Hurk, Andrew F.; Cortis, Giles; Doggett, Stephen L.; Toi, Cheryl; Fall, Ken; McMahon, Jamie L.; Townsend, Michael; Ritchie, Scott A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although sentinel animals are used successfully throughout the world to monitor arbovirus activity, ethical considerations and cross-reactions in serological assays highlight the importance of developing viable alternatives. Here we outline the development of a passive sentinel mosquito arbovirus capture kit (SMACK) that allows for the detection of arboviruses on honey-baited nucleic acid preservation cards (Flinders Technology Associates; FTA®) and has a similar trap efficacy as s...

  15. Enveloped virus-like particles as vaccines against pathogenic arboviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijlman, Gorben P

    2015-05-01

    Arthropod-borne arboviruses form a continuous threat to human and animal health, but few arboviral vaccines are currently available. Advances in expression technology for complex, enveloped virus-like particles (eVLPs) create new opportunities to develop potent vaccines against pathogenic arboviruses. In this short review, I highlight the successes and challenges in eVLP production for members of the three major arbovirus families: Flaviviridae (e.g., dengue, West Nile, Japanese encephalitis); Bunyaviridae (e.g., Rift Valley fever); and Togaviridae (e.g., chikungunya). The results from pre-clinical testing will be discussed as well as specific constraints to the large-scale manufacture and purification of eVLPs, which are complex assemblies of membranes and viral glycoproteins. Insect cells emerge as ideal substrates for correct arboviral glycoprotein folding and posttranslational modification to yield high quality eVLPs. Furthermore, baculovirus expression in insect cell culture is scalable and has a proven safety record in industrial human and veterinary vaccine manufacturing. In conclusion, eVLPs produced in insect cells using modern biotechnology have a realistic potential to be used in novel vaccines against arboviral diseases. PMID:25692281

  16. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  17. Benefit-Risk Assessment in Drug Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarac, Sinan

    This thesis covers the development, testing and use of an eight-step structured method for data-driven benefit-risk assessment. The aim of this thesis was to create a tailored method for the assessment of clinical data. The focus has been on three major aspects: (i) A simple preliminary method wa...

  18. Risk Assessment Study for Storage Explosive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Azhar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, there has been rapidly increasing usage in amount of explosives due to widely expansion in quarrying and mining industries. The explosives are usually stored in the storage where the safety precaution had given high attention. As the storage of large quantity of explosive can be hazardous to workers and nearby residents in the events of accidental denotation of explosives, a risk assessment study for storage explosive (magazine had been carried out. Risk assessment study had been conducted in Kimanis Quarry Sdn. Bhd, located in Sabah. Risk assessment study had been carried out with the identification of hazards and failure scenarios and estimation of the failure frequency of occurrence. Analysis of possible consequences of failure and the effects of blast waves due to the explosion was evaluated. The risk had been estimated in term of fatalities and eardrum rupture to the workers and public. The average individual voluntary risk for fatality to the workers at the quarry is calculated to be 5.75 x 10-6 per person per year, which is much lower than the acceptable level. Eardrum rupture risk calculated to be 3.15 x 10-6 per person per year for voluntary risk. There is no involuntary risk found for fatality but for eardrum rupture it was calculated to be 6.98 x 10-8 per person per year, as given by Asian Development Bank.

  19. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    impaired specificities. No combinations proved clinically useful values according to Yuoden's index. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limitations of the present study, the computer-based Cariogram did not perform better than a caries risk assessment scheme based on past caries experience and caries progression...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed as...... sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p < 0.05). There was a strong...

  20. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  1. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  2. Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios." The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

  3. Risk assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

    OpenAIRE

    Waigmann E; Paoletti C; Davies H; Perry J; Kärenlampi S; Kuiper H

    2012-01-01

    EFSA’s remit in the risk assessment of GMOs is very broad encompassing genetically modified plants, microorganisms and animals and assessing their safety for humans, animals and the environment. The legal frame for GMOs is set by Directive 2001/18/EC on their release into the environment, and Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 on GM food and feed. The main focus of EFSA’s GMO Panel and GMO Unit lies in the evaluation of the scientific risk assessment of new applications for market authoris...

  4. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  5. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  6. Can we assess genetic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, somatic considerations have been weighed more heavily than genetic risks in determining radiation standards, although the genetic risks cannot be ignored. Familiar generalizations about mutations may be that almost all mutants, chromosomal or point mutations, are harmful or at best neutral. At any one time, population is to some extent impaired by recurrent mutation. The extent of impairment depends on many things, but particularly it depends on the mutation rate. If population is at equilibrium, there is a standing number of mutant genes, determined by the balance between recurrent mutation and the elimination of mutants by selection and other factors. Doubling of mutation and halving of individual mutant damage have essentially the same effect. If a mutant reduces the Darwinian fitness of its bearer by 1%, it will affect on the average 100 individuals before it is eliminated. The data obtained from the experiments with Drosophila suggest that the ratio of mutants, whose homozygous effect is lethal to those whose effect is mild, is higher in radiation-induced mutants than in spontaneous ones. Chemically-induced mutants may be more like spontaneous mutants. All measures of congenital defects, morphology, survival, and sex-ratio have shown no difference between the children of exposed parents and those of control groups, as observed in the Hiroshima-Nagasaki studies. The heterozygous effects of recessive mutants, minor deleterious mutants and the expression of recessive condition spread out over a long time, and are diluted so that the impact on a single generation is very slight. (Yamashita, S.)

  7. Environment, arbovirus transmission and control of epidemics : ambiente, transmissào de arbovirus e controle de epidemias

    OpenAIRE

    Roger Cordellier; Nicolas Degallier

    1992-01-01

    In order to illustrate the relationships between the biotopes (or phytogeographical zones), arbovirus vectors and vertebrate hosts (including man), and epidemiology, current knowledge on the transmission of Yellow Fever virus in West Africa is reported. A dynamic scheme has been devised to integrate the observed geographical distribution of cases and the timing of their occurrence. Two principal areas, endemicity and epidetnicity, were defined according to the presence or absence of sylvatic ...

  8. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  9. QRAS-the quantitative risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an overview of QRAS, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System. QRAS is a PC-based software tool for conducting Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs), which was developed to address risk analysis needs held by NASA. QRAS is, however, applicable in a wide range of industries. The philosophy behind the development of QRAS is to bridge communication and skill gaps between managers, engineers, and risk analysts by using representations of the risk model and analysis results that are easy to comprehend by each of those groups. For that purpose, event sequence diagrams (ESD) are being used as a replacement for event trees (ET) to model scenarios, and the quantification of events is possible through a set of quantification models familiar to engineers. An automated common cause failure (CCF) modeling tool further aids the risk modeling. QRAS applies BDD-based algorithms for the accurate and efficient computation of risk results. The paper presents QRAS' modeling and analysis capabilities. The performance of the underlying BDD algorithm is assessed and compared to that of another PRA software tool, using a case study extracted from the International Space Station PRA

  10. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plattner, Th.; Plapp, T.; Hebel, B.

    2006-06-01

    An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not why it differs. The

  11. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. Plattner

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not

  12. Risk assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waigmann E

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s remit in the risk assessment of GMOs is very broad encompassing genetically modified plants, microorganisms and animals and assessing their safety for humans, animals and the environment. The legal frame for GMOs is set by Directive 2001/18/EC on their release into the environment, and Regulation (EC No 1829/2003 on GM food and feed. The main focus of EFSA’s GMO Panel and GMO Unit lies in the evaluation of the scientific risk assessment of new applications for market authorisation of GMOs, and in the development of corresponding guidelines for the applicants. The EFSA GMO Panel has elaborated comprehensive guidance documents on GM plants, GM microorganisms and GM animals, as well as on specific aspects of risk assessment such as the selection of comparators. EFSA also provides special scientific advice upon request of the European Commission; examples are post-market environmental monitoring of GMOs, and consideration of potential risks of new plant breeding techniques. The GMO Panel regularly reviews its guidance documents in the light of experience gained with the evaluation of applications, technological progress in breeding technologies and scientific developments in the diverse areas of risk assessment.

  13. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  14. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  15. Software Architecture Risk Assessment (SARA Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Shaik

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents Software Architecture Risk Assessment (SARA Tool to demonstrate the process of risk assessment at the software architecture level. The prototype tool accepts different types of inputs that define software architecture. It parses these input files and produces quantitative metrics that are used to estimate the required risk factors. The final result of this process is to discern the potentially high risk components in the software system. By manipulating the data acquired from domain expert and measures obtained from Unified Modeling Language (UML artifacts, SARA Tool can be used at the architecture development phase, at the design phase, or at the implementation phase of the software development process to improve the quality of the software product.

  16. The benefits of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the past 15 yr, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used to enable decision makers to prudently choose between alternatives for achieving safety. While the primary benefits of PRA application have been many lessons learned about contributors to nuclear plant risk, there have also been benefits in the form of lessons learned about how to do risk assessments. Examples have to do with data handling, plant and system modeling, capturing the operator's perspective, controlling the scope, technology transfer, and achieving scrutability. There is still much room for improvement in all these and other areas. Still, the progress toward real time and continuous quantitative risk management has been extremely encouraging. The key is to have patience and not expect the process to be automatic

  17. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  18. EPA's approach to assessment of radon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Environmental Protection Agency has assessed the potential lung cancer risk to the general population due to radon based on the Agency's general principles of risk assessment. This is the same approach that has been used to assess the impact on public health of other carcinogenic environmental pollutants. This paper describes the application of this approach to radon. This paper includes a description of the method used by the Agency to estimate that 20,000 lung cancer deaths per year may be related to radon exposure. Also presented are the weight-of-evidence for classifying radon as a known human carcinogen and the uncertainties associated with estimating risks from radon exposure. These reflect the extent of the underlying support and context for these estimates

  19. A Risk Assessment Framework for Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Djemame, K.; Armstrong, D; Guitart, J; Macias, M.

    2014-01-01

    Cloud service providers offer access to their resources through formal Service Level Agreements (SLA), and need wellbalanced infrastructures so that they can maximise the Quality of Service (QoS) they offer and minimise the number of SLA violations. This paper focuses on a specific aspect of risk assesment as applied in cloud computing: methods within a framework that can be used by cloud service providers and service consumers to assess risk during service deployment and operation. It descri...

  20. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    OpenAIRE

    Gary Vinyard; Jennifer Nielsen; C. Richard Tracy; Mary Peacock; Jason Dunham

    1999-01-01

    Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide informatio...

  1. Risk assessment of biogas in kitchens

    OpenAIRE

    Leroux, Carole; Modelon, Hugues; Rousselle, Christophe; Bellenfant, Gaël; Ramalho, Olivier; Jaeg, Jean-Paul; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; Naja, Ghinwa M.

    2009-01-01

    The health risk associated with human exposure to pollutants while using biogas for cooking was assessed following the methodology described by the US - National Research Council. Information of hazardous compounds and compositions of several biogas types were extracted from scientific literature. Compositions were dependent on the biogas origin (production process). First, a quantitative approach was conducted to identify substances with a high health risk based on their Human Toxicity Value...

  2. Current practice in tailings ponds risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Pytel, Witold

    2010-01-01

    Current practice for risk assessment posed by surface tailings/waste storage facilities is presented. This involves current legislation and regulations applied in EU countries and over the world and the basics concerned with tailings impoundments design as well. It was proved that a current activity at the existing tailings impoundment structures is presently confined rather to field measurements, monitoring and surveillance understood as a basic source for a “real time risk assessment”.

  3. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned. PMID:17433229

  4. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  5. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  6. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  7. IT Risk Assessment: Developing and defining the IT Risk Assessment Process Framework in the case company

    OpenAIRE

    Damonte, Ronnie

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to define the Information Technology risk assessment process framework for an international Finnish firm belonging to a major IT corporation. The study was motivated by the fact that, in the case company, due to the lack of a common defined process for IT risk assessment, it was challenging to correctly evaluate and compare the relevancy on each risk. As a consequence, potentially misleading and inconsistent information on the impact and related importance of I...

  8. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...

  9. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  10. Essays on financial forecasting and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Πλαστήρα, Σωτηρία Ν.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis aims at investigating the performance of empirical risk factors in financial forecasting and their assessment with respect to the associated risk. The thesis consists of four essays. The first essay focuses on whether the empirical HML and SMB risk factors, along with the long-term reversal and the momentum factors exhibit both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the U.S. stock returns, compared to the performance of the most widely used financial variables. Our fi...

  11. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  12. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  13. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  14. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  15. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  16. Systematization of methods for assessing NPP operation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A comparative analysis of the regulations on risk assessment is carried out. Quantitative methods of decision-making under risks are considered and systematization of risk assessment methods to be selected depending on decision-making conditions is proposed

  17. Resources for global risk assessment: The International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database ( (www.tera.org/iter)) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at (http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm), and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET ( (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/)). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations

  18. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  19. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  20. Risk assessment for one-counter threads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Ponse; M.B. van der Zwaag

    2008-01-01

    Threads as contained in a thread algebra are used for the modeling of sequential program behavior. A thread that may use a counter to control its execution is called a ‘one-counter thread’. In this paper the decidability of risk assessment (a certain form of action forecasting) for one-counter threa

  1. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  2. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  3. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  4. Arbovirus high fidelity variant loses fitness in mosquitoes and mice.

    OpenAIRE

    Coffey, L.L.; Beeharry, Y.; Borderia, A.V.; Blanc, H; Vignuzzi, M.

    2011-01-01

    The error rate of RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRp) affects the mutation frequency in a population of viral RNAs. Using chikungunya virus (CHIKV), we describe a unique arbovirus fidelity variant with a single C483Y amino acid change in the nsP4 RdRp that increases replication fidelity and generates populations with reduced genetic diversity. In mosquitoes, high fidelity CHIKV presents lower infection and dissemination titers than wild type. In newborn mice, high fidelity CHIKV produces tru...

  5. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  6. Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

  7. Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving (1) component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and (2) fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: 1. Primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plateout activity that contaminates the confinement. 2. Turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. Two accident families have been examined for safety risk: 1. Primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plateout activity to the confinement. 2. Releases initiated by steam generator leaks which can release radioactivity directly to the environment. Primary coolant leaks dominate the upper portion of the safety risk envelope, while releases initiated by steam generator leaks govern the lower frequency region. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements. (author)

  8. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickol, Craig L.

    2008-01-01

    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  9. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  10. Seismic safety design and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The adequacy and sufficiency of NPP seismic safety design are confirmed by the defense-in-depth safety performance and the risk profile. Seismic safety design and risk assessment are now inseparable for safety assurance of nuclear facilities. Applying the defense-in-depth principle to NPP seismic safety is a difficult issue with respect to the current seismic design philosophy in Japan. The defense-in-depth seismic safety of NPP requires not only resisting seismic events but also assuring safety when safety measures do not function as designed in the seismic events. The current deterministic design practice is not appropriate for the defense-in-depth principle when earthquake shaking demand increases because of new knowledge. Probabilistic risk assessment allows application of the defense-in-depth principle to NPP seismic safety design in these cases. The probability of failure, the maximum conditional probability of failure and the ground motion at the condition derived with the relationship between the realistic seismic load and seismic capacity are the three important indexes for safety design. Performing the safety performance analyses considering maximum conditional probability of failure and the risk assessment complying the probability of failure is essential to satisfy the necessary and sufficiently conditions for the defense-in-depth safety requirements of NPPs. (author)

  11. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  12. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  13. Health risk assessment for fuel reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A health risk assessment for 85Kr was conducted. The purpose of the study was to evaluate radiological impacts of the EPA 85Kr legislation as embodied in 40 CFR 190. This was done by conducting a health risk assessment of the comparative risks involved in a routine release scenario versus 85Kr capture alternatives at a fuel reprocessing plant (FRP). The krypton contained in dissolver offgas, has historically been released routinely into the environment from FRP operations. There is an alternative to the routine release and that is capture, concentrate, and store the gas for long periods of time. Cryogenic distillation or fluorocarbon absorption are alternative methods for the capture of krypton. Ion implantation/sputtering is a method of immobilizing krypton received from the two capture processes. These technologies were evaluated based on the assumption that, for the extremely low doses and dose rates involved, the risks to individuals in the work force can be compared directly to the risks to members of the general public. Early conceptual facility designs for the three processes were taken from the literature

  14. Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM: Groundwater Risk Assessment Model for Wellfield Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nara Somaratne

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A groundwater risk assessment was carried out for 30 potable water supply systems under a framework of protecting drinking water quality across South Australia. A semi-quantitative Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM was developed based on a “multi-barrier” approach using likelihood of release, contaminant pathway and consequence equation. Groundwater vulnerability and well integrity have been incorporated to the pathway component of the risk equation. The land use of the study basins varies from protected water reserves to heavily stocked grazing lands. Based on the risk assessment, 15 systems were considered as low risk, four as medium and 11 systems as at high risk. The GRAM risk levels were comparable with indicator bacteria—total coliform—detection. Most high risk systems were the result of poor well construction and casing corrosion rather than the land use. We carried out risk management actions, including changes to well designs and well operational practices, design to increase time of residence and setting the production zone below identified low permeable zones to provide additional barriers to contaminants. The highlight of the risk management element is the well integrity testing using down hole geophysical methods and camera views of the casing condition.

  15. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  16. CONCEPTUAL MODELS DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grigory М. Franchuk

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available  The basics of conceptual models are presented in the article. Practical application of environmental conceptual models to the process of environmental risks assessment process is given. Structural issues of models formation are presented and most common types of conceptual models are analyzed. Recommendations for site-specific models construction are developed for various organizational levels and types of receptors. The scheme for integration of ecological conceptual model with conceptual model for the industrial site is presented and approaches to making them consistent with the conceptual model of human health risks are stated.

  17. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  18. Risk Assessment Tool for Estimating Your 10-Year Risk of Having a Heart Attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Education Programs Continuing Education Opportunities Health Observances Risk Assessment Tool for Estimating Your 10-year Risk of Having a Heart Attack The risk assessment tool below uses information from the Framingham Heart ...

  19. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The world is a risky place in which to live! The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die!. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk assessment in one country alone or to

  20. STUDIES OF ARBOVIRUSES IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA. SEROLOGICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    STANLEY, N F; CHOO, S B

    1964-01-01

    In order to obtain information on the occurrence of arboviruses in Western Australia, sera from white persons and Australian aborigines and from animals were subjected to antibody estimations with selected viruses as a prelude to virus isolations. The serological evidence shows the presence of group A and group B arboviruses but significant differences in antibody distribution between the two groups. Antibodies to group A viruses, particularly to the Malayan mosquito virus AMM 2354, are present in both the aboriginal and the white populations over the entire territory. Neutralizing antibody to another group A virus, AMM 2021, isolated in Malaya, is found in much lower prevalence, while antibodies to the newly isolated Queensland group A virus, MRM 39, are found only in the Kimberley area. No avian group A antibodies were detected. The prevalence of group B antibodies is high in the northern part of the State and almost non-existent in the central areas. The results indicate the presence of more than one group B virus and the absence of dengue neutralizing antibody in the Australian aborigine. A unique situation exists in central Australia, where all aboriginal sera have group A antibody but none has group B antibody. PMID:14153411

  1. Cardiovascular risk assessment in Italy: the CUORE Project risk score and risk chart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Giampaoli

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Aim: Risk charts and risk score, based on the global absolute risk, are key tools for CVD risk assessment. When applied to the population from which they derive, they provide the best estimate of CVD risk. That is why the CUORE Project has among its objectives the assessment of the Italian population’s cardiovascular risk, identifying the model for the prediction of coronary and cerebrovascular events in 10 years.

    Methods: Data fromdifferent cohorts enrolled in the North, Centre and South of Italy between the 1980s and the 1990s were used. From the 7,056 men and 12,574 women aged 35-69 years, free of cardiovascular disease at base-line and followed up for a mean time of 10 years for total and cause-specific mortality and non fatal cerebrovascular and coronary events, 894 major cardiovascular events (596 coronary and 298 cerebrovascular were identified and validated. To assess 10-year cardiovascular risk, the risk score and risk chart were developed for men and women separately, considering the first major coronary or cerebrovascular event as the endpoint.

    Results: The risk score is applied tomen andwomen aged 35-69 years and includes age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, smoking habit, diabetes and hypertension treatment using continuous values when possible. The risk chart is applied to persons aged 40-69 years and includes the same risk factors as risk score, except for HDL-cholesterol and hypertension treatment, and uses categorical values for all variables.

    Conclusions: The risk score and risk chart are easy-to-use tools which enable general practitioners and specialists to achieve an objective evaluation of the absolute global cardiovascular risk of middle-aged persons in primary prevention.

  2. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  3. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  4. Ionizing radiation risk assessment, BEIR IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report of the Subpanel discusses the potential impact on Federal agencies and indicates individual risk factors that could be used by them in risk assessment. The approach used in this CIRRPC report was to consider the risk factors presented in BEIR IV for each radionuclide (or group radioelements) and to make some judgments regarding their validity and/or the uncertainties involved. The coverage of Radon-222 and its progeny dominated the BEIR IV report and this Subpanel felt is was proper to devote more attention to this radionuclide family. This risk factor presented in BEIR IV for radon is 350 cancer deaths per million person-working level months (WLM) of exposure for a lifetime. There is a range of opinions on the conversion from WLM to absorbed dose. As discussed in the text, the use of the WLM concept makes it difficult or infeasible to compare the risk factor for radon with that of other radionuclides which are based on organ dose. This report also includes a discussion of certain fundamental scientific and operational issues that may have decisive effect upon risk factor selection. These adjunct items are dealt with under separate headings and include discussions of threshold dose considerations, extrapolation to low doses, and age at exposure

  5. Remote risk assessment: A case study using SCOPE software

    OpenAIRE

    Demichela, Micaela

    2015-01-01

    A thorough risk assessment requires input from experts in both safety analyses and the system under analysis. The cost of collecting together the required expertise for a short risk assessment may mean that for some small and medium enterprises (SME), the risk assessment is not deemed worthwhile or is completed using a generic form. This is despite the possible safety and performance benefits that can be identified via a thorough risk assessment. This paper presents a case study of a risk ass...

  6. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    OpenAIRE

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from ...

  7. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  8. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  9. Epigenetic processes and cancer risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment encourages the use of mechanistic data in the assessment of human cancer risk at low (environmental) exposure levels. The key events that define a particular mode of action for tumor formation have been concentrated to date more on mutational responses that are broadly the result of induced DNA damage and enhanced cell proliferation. While it is clear that these processes are important in terms of tumor induction, other modes that fall under the umbrella of epigenetic responses are increasingly being considered to play an important role in susceptibility to tumor induction by environmental chemicals and as significant modifiers of tumor responses. Alterations in gene expression, DNA repair, cell cycle control, genome stability and genome reprogramming could be the result of modification of DNA methylation and chromatin remodeling patterns as a consequence of exposure to environmental chemicals. These concepts are described and discussed

  10. Cardiovascular risk assessment in women - an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, P; Webb, C M; de Villiers, T J; Stevenson, J C; Panay, N; Baber, R J

    2016-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in postmenopausal women. Although it is a disease of aging, vascular disease initiates much earlier in life. Thus, there is a need to be aware of the potential to prevent the development of the disease from an early age and continue this surveillance throughout life. The menopausal period and early menopause present an ideal opportunity to assess cardiovascular risk and plan accordingly. Generally in this period, women will be seen by primary health-care professionals and non-cardiovascular specialists. This review addresses female-specific risk factors that may contribute to the potential development of cardiovascular disease. It is important for all health-care professionals dealing with women in midlife and beyond to be cognisant of these risk factors and to initiate female-specific preventative measures or to refer to a cardiovascular specialist. PMID:27327421

  11. Assessing the risk of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current concern with diminishing supplies of non-renewable energy has brought into clearer focus the debate on the future of nuclear energy. Application of the risk assessment process to the biological effects of radiation is considered worthwhile so that the nature and order of the hazards entailed can be appreciated in the total context of the problem. The derivation of regulations and the process of cost-risk-benefit analysis are also discussed. In view of the widespread public concern and, on occasion, apprehension about the development of nuclear energy it has been thought useful to tabulate the elements of this concern so as to gain a fuller understanding of the manner in which the public perceives and weighs risks. (author)

  12. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  13. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  14. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  15. Ozone Risk Assessment for European Vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albino Maggio

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Tropospheric ozone is the most critical air pollutant for plants. In recent years, common research goals have brought together different groups working on plant/ozone interactions, interested in establishing a European network that could efficiently make progress in this important research area. In this context, the international workshop on “Ozone risk assessment for European vegetation” was held on May 10- 11, 2007 in Capri (Naples, Italy.

  16. Moving Forward in Human Cancer Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Paules, Richard S.; Aubrecht, Jiri; Corvi, Raffaella; Garthoff, Bernward; Kleinjans, Jos C.

    2010-01-01

    Background The current safety paradigm for assessing carcinogenic properties of drugs, cosmetics, industrial chemicals, and environmental exposures relies mainly on in vitro genotoxicity testing followed by 2-year rodent bioassays. This testing battery is extremely sensitive but has low specificity. Furthermore, rodent bioassays are associated with high costs, high animal burden, and limited predictive value for human risks. Objectives We provide a response to a growing appeal for a paradigm ...

  17. Remarks on sequential designs in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The special merits of sequential designs are reviewed in light of particular challenges that attend risk assessment for human population. The kinds of ''statistical inference'' are distinguished and the problem of design which is pursued is the clash between Neyman-Pearson and Bayesian programs of sequential design. The value of sequential designs is discussed and the Neyman-Pearson vs. Bayesian sequential designs are probed in particular. Finally, warnings with sequential designs are considered, especially in relation to utilitarianism

  18. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of various aspects of mergers and acquisition transactions in the petroleum industry were presented. Incentives to mergers and acquisitions were reviewed and discussed, among them value opportunity, critical size, incremental tax pools, financial distress, shareholder dissatisfaction, strategic infrastructure position, complementary assets, and undeveloped land inventory. Current trends in mergers and acquisitions were highlighted. An industry checklist for risk assessments discussing financial position, engineering forecasts, and taxation was also included

  19. Risk assessment of mercury contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    At two sites, highly contaminated with mercury, risk assessment was executed. Methods were developed to determine organomercury compounds in water, air and soil. Toxicity tests demonstrated the high toxicity of organomercury compounds compared to inorganic mercury. Besides highly toxic methylmercury, ethylmercury was found in soils close to a chemical plant in Marktredwitz. In ultrafiltration-experiments mercury showed great affinity to high molecular substances in water. Lysimeter-experiments proved, that organomercury compounds are adsorbed and transformed to inorganic and elemental mercury. (orig.)

  20. Integrating environmental considerations into prisoner risk assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Tompson, L. A.; Chainey, S.

    2013-01-01

    Reducing re-offending amongst ex-prisoners is of paramount importance for both penal and societal reasons. This paper advances an argument that the current prisoner risk assessment instruments used in the UK neglect to account for environmental determinants of re-offending. We frame this position within the growing literature on the ecology of recidivism, and use the principles of environmental criminology to stress the importance of the opportunities for crime that are present in an ex-priso...

  1. Risk assessment of tailings facility dam failure

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Nikolova, Marija; Mirakovski, Dejan; Stefanova, Violeta

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the consequences of tailings facility dam failure and therefore the needs for its risk assessment. Tailings are fine-grained wastes of the mining industry, output as slurries, due to mixing with water during mineral processing. Tailings dams vary a lot as it is affected by: tailings characteristics and mill output, site characteristics as: topography, hydrology, geology, groundwater, seismicity and available material and disposal methods. The talings which accumulat...

  2. Insights from seismic PRAs [probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the last six years, seismic probabilistic risk assessments of eight nuclear power plants have been published and 12 other such studies are being completed. In addition, the NRC funded the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to develop seismic risk analysis methods. Some of these seismic risk analyses have shown that seismic events are dominant contributors to plant risks; others have indicated that the contribution of plant risks from seismic events are not negligible. Seismic PRAs have also highlighted the fact that large uncertainties exist in the seismic risk estimates. In view of this, a procedure is needed to assess the seismic safety of a plant which is somewhat removed from the influence of the uncertainties in seismic hazard estimates. In the last three years, seismic margin review methodologies have been developed based on the results and insights from the seismic PRAs. They focus on the question of how much larger an earthquake should be beyond the plant design basis before it compromises the safety of the plant. The seismic margin review methodologies draw from the seismic PRAs, experience in seismic analyses, testing and actual earthquakes in order to minimize the review effort. The salient steps in the review consists of preliminary screening of components and systems, performance of detailed seismic walkdowns and evaluation of seismic margins for components, systems and plant. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the seismic PRAs and to discuss the insights obtained in the performance of these PRAs. The primary focus is on the seismic capacities of components, systems and plant in order to make judgments of the lower bound earthquake magnitudes for consideration in seismic design of nuclear power plants

  3. Risk Assessment for Tuzla Naval Base Breakwater

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Can Elmar BALAS

    2003-01-01

    In the applications of reliability-based risk assessment methodology in Turkey, only wave characteristics, tidal range, storm surge, wave set-up, and structural system parameters were included in the past. Tsunami risk was not considered as a major design parameter and thus, was not included in the computation. After a strong earthquake (Mw=7.4) occurred near the town of Golcuk, Izmit Bay, Western Turkey at 00:01 GMT on August 17, 1999, chaotic water movements were observed on the coast of the Marmara Sea. Rubble mound breakwaters demonstrated very little damage, as predicted by the reliability-based risk assessment model developed in this study for the Tuzla Naval Base. For determination of the probability of occurrence under design conditions, which is a function of storm waves, tidal range, storm surge, and tsunami height, the Monte Carlo simulation was interrelated with the βⅡ method. For the Tuzla Naval Base main breakwater, tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves, however, in places with great seismic activity, tsunami risk can be significant depending on the probability of occurrence and the magnitude of the tsunami.

  4. Selection of Dispersivity in Groundwater Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武晓峰; 唐杰

    2004-01-01

    The Domenico model is used in combination with ASTM E 1739 in a Tier 2 risk assessment of chlorinated organic solvents contaminated groundwater sites to predict potential contaminant concentration in groundwater down-gradient from the point of exposure (POE). A knowledge of the dispersivity parameters is necessary for carrying out this calculation. A constant longitudinal dispersivity of 10 m is often used in analytical and numerical calculation. However, because of the scale effect of dispersion, two other main approaches are currently often used. From the viewpoint of conservative principle in risk assessment, it is necessary to determine which dispersivity data will give a higher predicted concentration, corresponding to a more conservative risk calculation. Generally, it is considered that a smaller dispersivity leads to a higher predicted concentration. This assumption is correct when dispersion is the only natural attenuation factor. However, degradation of commonly encountered chlorinated organic solvents in environment under natural condition has been widely reported. Calculations given in this paper of several representative cases show that a general consideration of the influence of dispersivity on concentration prediction is not always correct when a degradation term is included in the calculation. To give a conservative risk calculation, the scale effect of dispersion is considered. Calculations also show that the dispersivity parameters need to be determined by considering the POE distance from the source, the groundwater velocity, and the degradation rate of the contaminant.

  5. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  6. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A. [Ecological Planning and Toxicology, Inc., Corvallis, OR (United States); Glicken, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  7. Evaluation of arboviruses of public health interest in free-living non-human primates (Alouatta spp., Callithrix spp., Sapajus spp. in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Carneiro da Rocha

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the presence of arboviruses from the Flavivirus genus in asymptomatic free-living non-human primates (NHPs living in close contact with humans and vectors in the States of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: NHP sera samples (total n = 80, Alouatta spp. n = 07, Callithrix spp. n = 29 and Sapajus spp. n = 44 were screened for the presence of viral genomes using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and 10% polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis techniques. RESULTS: All of the samples were negative for the Flavivirus genome following the 10% polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These negative results indicate that the analyzed animals were not infected with arboviruses from the Flavivirus genus and did not represent a risk for viral transmission through vectors during the period in which the samples were collected.

  8. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE REGULATED WATERCOURSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Bondar-Nowakowska

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecological risk has not been identified well enough for the designers and contractors to take any actions for its limitation. It results from the lack of the basis formed to assess its level objectively. The aim of this study was to determine the standards useful in the evaluation of the ecological risk for aquatic plants in rivers, where it is planned to conduct regulatory works. The basis for the analysis were the results of the study performed in 2008–2014 in unmodified and transformed lowland watercourses in Lower Silesia. 41 study sections were analysed in 11 watercourses. 30 sections were located in regulated watercourses, while 11 were in unmodified streams. The research included vascular aquatic plants identification and the degree of the bottom coverage by these plants. As a result of regulatory works qualitative and quantitative changes in aquatic plants communities were observed. The analysis of these changes concerning the range and conditions of works conduction enabled assigning measures to the factors of the considered risk. It served as a basis for describing the risk register and the matrix of risk. The study demonstrated that the most important threats resulting from the river regulation from the point of view of environmental protection are complete shading of watercourse bed, and in some cases, bed widening and deepening, embankments slope of 1: 1, 1: 0, embankments protection with stone material or their concreting.

  9. Assessing mixtures risks for cleanup and stewardship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for addressing contamination from past research, production, and disposal activities at over 100 sites and facilities across the country. Use of emerging science to assess risks for these facilities is the key to defining appropriate solutions. Safely managing contamination is a priority to protect workers in the near term, and sustained protection is a priority for local communities over the long term. The Department conducts its environmental management program with input from a number of groups who have expressed concern about the safety of DOE sites over time and the possible conversion of some lands to other uses. In general, past facility activities and disposal operations have contaminated about 10% of the total collective area of DOE sites while surrounding lands have served as buffer zones. Portions of several sites have been released for other uses, such as wildlife preserves. Soil, surface water, and groundwater have been contaminated in most instances, and on-site waste disposal is targeted for many sites. Wastes and contamination that will remain in the environment are at the heart of ongoing future use and long-term management deliberations. For this reason, oversight groups and local citizens are scrutinizing the risk assessments being conducted to support decisions on final cleanup and long-term stewardship. Contaminants exist throughout the world not as individual chemicals but as combinations. The standard risk assessment process broadly applied to support cleanup decisions for contaminated sites is based on single-chemical analyses that do not consider joint toxicity. That is, possible nonadditive effects (commonly termed synergistic or antagonistic) of multiple exposures to multiple chemicals are not generally addressed. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been developing a process to assess risks of multiple chemicals (EPA 1990, 2000), but it is not yet being applied to address

  10. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, N.; Qiu, Y.; Gan, H.; Niu, C.; Liu, J.; Gan, Y.; Zhou, N.

    2014-09-01

    Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG). The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  11. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  12. Emerging arboviruses and public health challenges in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima-Camara, Tamara Nunes

    2016-06-27

    Environmental modification by anthropogenic actions, disordered urban growth, globalization of international exchange and climate change are some factors that help the emergence and dissemination of human infectious diseases transmitted by vectors. This review discusses the recent entry of three arboviruses in Brazil: Chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus, focusing on the challenges for the Country's public health. The Brazilian population is exposed to infections caused by these three arboviruses widely distributed on the national territory and associated with humans. Without effective vaccine and specific treatment, the maintainance and integration of a continuos entomological and epidemiological surveillance are important so we can set methods to control and prevent these arboviruses in the Country. RESUMO A modificação do ambiente por ações antrópicas, o crescimento urbano desordenado, o processo de globalização do intercâmbio internacional e as mudanças climáticas são alguns fatores que vêm facilitando a emergência e disseminação de doenças infecciosas humanas transmitidas por vetores. Este comentário aborda a recente entrada de três arbovírus no Brasil, Chikungunya (CHIKV), West Nile (WNV) e Zika (ZIKV), com enfoque nos desafios para a Saúde Pública do País. Transmitidos por mosquitos vetores amplamente distribuídos no território nacional e associados ao homem, a população brasileira encontra-se exposta à infecção por esses três arbovírus. Na ausência de vacina eficaz e tratamento específico, são importantes a manutenção e integração de uma vigilância entomológica e epidemiológica contínua, a fim de direcionarmos métodos de controle e prevenção contra essas arboviroses no País. PMID:27355468

  13. Quantitative risk assessment of durable glass fibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayerweather, William E; Eastes, Walter; Cereghini, Francesco; Hadley, John G

    2002-06-01

    This article presents a quantitative risk assessment for the theoretical lifetime cancer risk from the manufacture and use of relatively durable synthetic glass fibers. More specifically, we estimate levels of exposure to respirable fibers or fiberlike structures of E-glass and C-glass that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, pose a theoretical lifetime cancer risk of not more than 1 per 100,000. For comparability with other risk assessments we define these levels as nonsignificant exposures. Nonsignificant exposure levels are estimated from (a) the Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E-glass microfibers, and (b) the Research Consulting Company (RCC) chronic inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers (RCF). Best estimates of nonsignificant E-glass exposure exceed 0.05-0.13 fibers (or shards) per cubic centimeter (cm3) when calculated from the multistage nonthreshold model. Best estimates of nonsignificant C-glass exposure exceed 0.27-0.6 fibers/cm3. Estimates of nonsignificant exposure increase markedly for E- and C-glass when non-linear models are applied and rapidly exceed 1 fiber/cm3. Controlling durable fiber exposures to an 8-h time-weighted average of 0.05 fibers/cm3 will assure that the additional theoretical lifetime risk from working lifetime exposures to these durable fibers or shards is kept below the 1 per 100,000 level. Measured airborne exposures to respirable, durable glass fibers (or shards) in glass fiber manufacturing and fabrication operations were compared with the nonsignificant exposure estimates described. Sampling results for B-sized respirable E-glass fibers at facilities that manufacture or fabricate small-diameter continuous-filament products, from those that manufacture respirable E-glass shards from PERG (process to efficiently recycle glass), from milled fiber operations, and from respirable C-glass shards from Flakeglass operations indicate very low median exposures of 0

  14. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  15. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment in the CPI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a method of quantifying the frequency of occurrence and magnitude of the consequences of accidents in systems that contain hazardous materials such as toxic, flammable or explosive chemicals. The frequency and magnitude of the consequences are the basic elements in the definition of risk, often simply expressed as the product of frequency and magnitude, summed over all accident sequences. PRA is a mature technique that has been used to estimate risk for a number of industrial facilities: for example, the Canvey Island Petrochemical complex; the Port of Rotterdam; the Reactor Safety Study, the first study to put the risks associated with nuclear power into perspective; and the transportation of chlorine. PRA has been developed to a greater level of sophistication in the nuclear industry than in the chemical industry. In the nuclear area, its usefulness has been demonstrated by increased plant safety, engineering insights, and cost-saving recommendations. Data and methods have been developed to increase the level of realism of the treatment of operator actions in PRA studies. It can be stated generally that the same methods can be applied with equal success in the chemical industry. However, there are pitfalls into which the unwary nuclear-oriented PRA analyst may stumble if he does not bear in mind that there are significant differences between nuclear plants and chemical plants

  17. Risk assessment and radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Problems of radioactive waste management, both real and apparent, have provided a serious constraint in the development of nuclear power. Several studies have been conducted in an attempt to evaluate the actual (quantifiable) risks of radioactive waste management and place them in a reasonable perspective. These studies are reviewed and discussed. Generally, the studies indicate the risks to be of a level of seriousness which might normally be considered acceptable in current society. However, it is apparent that this acceptability has not been attained and public apprehension prevails. To understand the reasons for this apprehension requires an assessment of those factors of ''perceived'' risks which play a major role in determining public attitudes toward radioactive waste management programs and nuclear power, in general. Such factors might include the spector of legacies of harm to future generations, genetic effects, nuclear garbage dumps, proliferation of plutonium inventories, nuclear terrorism, etc. A major problem in development of acceptable waste management policies and programs requires not only the recognition of the importance of perceived risk factors but development of a methodology for their incorporation in planning and conduct of such activities. Some approaches to the development of this methodology are discussed

  18. Risk assessment and improving nuclear plant safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper activities of the Relko, Ltd. are described. The Relko team is an distinguished group of engineers, applied scientists and management consultants who are widely recognised for their problem solving capabilities in the field of safety of nuclear power plants equipped with WWER type reactors. Relko Ltd. was founded in February 1993. The company performs safety analyses and evaluation of operational experience as well as consulting on matters of plant safety. Relko Ltd. provides for nuclear power plants the following services: Preparing of level 1 and level 2 full power and shutdown PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) studies; Support decision making in plant safety upgrading using PSA; Support plant operation based on PSA applications: - risk monitoring by EOOS Risk Monitor (Equipment Out Of Service), - optimization of technical specifications (allowed outage times and test intervals of safety systems), - optimization of maintenance activities based on the RCM (Reliability Centered Maintenance) approach; Reliability analyses for computerized reactor protection systems, control and instrumentation systems (software and hardware); Deterministic fire risk analyses; Deterministic flood risk analysis; High energy piping break analysis; Further development of accident management measures, drafting of safety requirements, emergency operating procedures and guides

  19. Dosimetry and Risk Assessment: Fundamental Concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radiation dosimetry is important for characterizing radiation exposures and for risk assessment. In a medical setting, dosimetry is important for evaluating the safety of administered radiopharmaceuticals and for planning the safe administration of therapeutic radionuclides. Environmental dosimetry helps establish the safety of radionuclide releases from electric power production and other human activities. Internal and external dosimetry help us understand the consequences of radiation exposure. The absorbed dose is the fundamental quantity in radiation dosimetry from which all other operational values in radiation protection are obtained. Equivalent dose to tissue and effective dose to the whole body are derivatives of absorbed dose and constructs of risk. Mathematical systems supported by computer software facilitate dose calculations and make it possible to estimate internal dose based on bioassay or other biokinetic data. Risk coefficients for radiation-induced cancer rely primarily on data from animal studies and long-term observations of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bomb survivors. Low-dose research shows that mechanisms of radiation interactions with tissue are dose-dependent, but the resulting biological effects are not necessarily linear with absorbed dose. Thus, the analysis of radiation effects and associated risks must account for the influences of microscopic energy distributions at the cellular level, dose-rate, cellular repair of sub-lethal radiation damage, and modifying factors such as bystander effects, adaptive response, and genomic instability.

  20. MODEL OF ASSESSMENT OF MARKETING RISKS IN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    OpenAIRE

    Solntsev Serhiy O.; Ovchynnikova Anna V.

    2013-01-01

    The goal of the article is the study of theoretical and methodical grounds of assessing marketing risks when realising investment projects for increase of efficiency of making managerial decisions and minimisation of the level of marketing risks. In the result of the study the article offers to allocate the stage of assessment in the process of management, consisting of detection, analysis and assessment of marketing risks. Structurisation of methods of assessment of marketing risks allowed s...

  1. Genetic cancer risk assessment in practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The advent of genetic testing has made a dramatic impact on the management of individuals with inherited susceptibility to cancer and their relatives. Genetic counsel ing, with or without testing, is warranted when clues to familial cancer are recognized. Today, genetic testing for classic cancer genetic syndromes is now the standard of care, and has been complemented by genetic testing for other situations commonly encountered in clinical practice. Genetic testing for colorectal cancer, breast cancer, kidney cancer, thyroid cancer, melanoma, and pancreatic cancer raise important issues about the parameters for testing. Genetic cancer risk assessment can lead to measurable reductions in morbidity and mortality through strategies that rely on surveillance, chemo prevention, and risk-reducing surgery

  2. Thermal ecological risk assessment - methodology for modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Discharge of hot effluents into natural water bodies is a potential risk to the aquatic life. The stipulations imposed by the MoEF, Government of India for protecting the environment are in place. However, due to lack of quality scientific information, these stipulations are generally conservative in nature and hence questionable. A Coordinated Research Project on Thermal Ecological Studies, successfully completed recently came out with a suggestion of implementing multi-factorially estimated mixing zone concept. In the present paper, risk based assessment methodology is proposed as an alternate approach. The methodology is presented only conceptually and briefly over which further refining may be necessary. The methodology would enable to account for variations in the plant operational conditions, climatic conditions and the geographical and hydraulic characteristic conditions of the water body in a suitable manner. (author)

  3. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects. PMID:22021317

  4. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... or national security as a result of the preliminary risk assessment, the candidate or the Provider... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14... CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment...

  5. 77 FR 28406 - Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-14

    ... COMMISSION Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft... issuing for public comment a draft NUREG, NUREG-2125, ``Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment (SFTRA... safety assurance. In that assessment, the measure of safety was the risk of radiation doses to the...

  6. Risk assessment of tuberculosis in immunocompromised patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sester, Martina; van Leth, Frank; Bruchfeld, Judith;

    2014-01-01

    of TST and IGRAs in five different groups of immunocompromised patients, and evaluated their ability to identify those at risk for development of tuberculosis. METHODS: Immunocompromised patients with HIV infection, chronic renal failure, rheumatoid arthritis, solid-organ or stem-cell transplantation......, and healthy control subjects were evaluated head-to-head by the TST, QuantiFERON-TB-Gold in-tube test (ELISA), and T-SPOT.TB test (enzyme-linked immunospot) at 17 centers in 11 European countries. Development of tuberculosis was assessed during follow-up. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Frequencies of...

  7. Benefit - Risk Assessment of Vitamin D Supplementation

    OpenAIRE

    BISCHOFF-FERRARI, H.A.; Dawson-Hughes, B; Shao, A; HATHCOCK, J.; Giovannucci, E; Willett, W. C.

    2009-01-01

    Current intake recommendations of 200 to 600 IU vitamin D per day may be insufficient for important disease outcomes reduced by vitamin D. INTRODUCTION: This study assessed the benefit of higher-dose and higher achieved 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels [25(OH)D] versus any associated risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on double-blind randomized control trials (RCTs), eight for falls (n = 2426) and 12 for non-vertebral fractures (n = 42,279), there was a significant dose-response relationship between ...

  8. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants. PMID:24046097

  9. The impact of the human genome project on risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radiation protection approach to risk assessment assumes that cancer induction following radiation exposure is purely random. Present risk assessment methods derive risk from cancer incidence frequencies in exposed populations and associate disease outcomes totally with the level of exposure to ionizing red aeon. Exposure defines a risk factor that affects the probability of the disease outcome. But cancer risk can be affected by other risk factors such as underlying genetic factors (predisposition) of the exposed organism. These genetic risk factors are now becoming available for incorporation into ionizing radiation risk assessment Progress in the Human Genome Project (HOP) will lead to direct assays to measure the effects of genetic risk determinants in disease outcomes. When all genetic risk determinants are known and incorporated into risk assessment it will be possible to reevaluate the role of ionizing radiation in the causation of cancer. (author)

  10. Assessment of cardiovascular risks and overall risks for noncardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, O Y; Beattie, C; Friesinger, G C

    1999-02-01

    Appropriate care of the elderly patient requires a concerted multi-disciplinary approach before, during, and after surgery to optimize functional outcomes, with the principal focus placed on improving quality of life and strategies for risk reduction. Perioperative physicians must be able to assess the biologic, not the chronologic, age of geriatric patients and their capacity for independent function. Physicians need to understand alterations in the physiology of elderly patients attributable to the normal aging process as well as the prevalence of concurrent pathologic conditions that necessitate special precautions. Maintaining autonomy and function as a result of an acute surgical intervention may be the most important outcome to the elderly patient. Most of the data available and guidelines promulgated do not specifically address the elderly population. It is important to collect data prospectively and use sophisticated methods for analyses to develop better management algorithms for these (often complicated) clinical issues in the elderly. PMID:10093774

  11. Spatial interaction analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In severe probabilistic risk assessments (PRA), it has been shown that accident scenarios involving ''external events'', such as fires and floods, can make an important contribution to the frequency of core damage and radionuclide release. These events belong to the broader category of common cause events, and an important issue in the evaluation of these events is whether a complete set of scenarios has been considered. In this article, a systematic scoping method is described for identifying and ranking scenarios involving environmental hazards that originate within plant boundaries and for determining the scope of the following detailed external event analysis. This method is also known as spatial interaction analysis. It was developed as part of the Seabrook Station Probabilistic Safety Assessment and has since been improved and applied to two other PRAs

  12. Apoptosis, autophagy and unfolded protein response pathways in Arbovirus replication and pathogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iranpour, Mahmoud; Moghadam, Adel Rezaei; Yazdi, Mina; Ande, Sudharsana R; Alizadeh, Javad; Wiechec, Emilia; Lindsay, Robbin; Drebot, Michael; Coombs, Kevin M; Ghavami, Saeid

    2016-01-01

    Arboviruses are pathogens that widely affect the health of people in different communities around the world. Recently, a few successful approaches toward production of effective vaccines against some of these pathogens have been developed, but treatment and prevention of the resulting diseases remain a major health and research concern. The arbovirus infection and replication processes are complex, and many factors are involved in their regulation. Apoptosis, autophagy and the unfolded protein response (UPR) are three mechanisms that are involved in pathogenesis of many viruses. In this review, we focus on the importance of these pathways in the arbovirus replication and infection processes. We provide a brief introduction on how apoptosis, autophagy and the UPR are initiated and regulated, and then discuss the involvement of these pathways in regulation of arbovirus pathogenesis. PMID:26781343

  13. Risks and risk assessment according to British legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The most important rules of the large number of legal regulations and other norms relating to risk control of technical installations discussed as far as their approach is quantitative: the regulations of the Health and Safety at Work Act of 1974, of the Factories Act of 1961, the Hazardous Installations (Notification and Survey) Regulation, the Canvey-Island Study, regulations referring to Atomic Energy Law and the administrative practice, legal regulations in the field of navigation, regulations concerning planning legislation including the Windscale-Study. In Great Britain, the power of decision in the field of technical safety has been clearly assigned to the administrative authorities. The legislature refrained from going into details in the stipulation of legal regulations, judicial control has not been provided for, or has only little relevance in practice. The prevailing goal is to reach decisions by consensus, taking every effort to solve conflicts of interest by mutual agreements. Methods and criteria in risk assessment have been modified according to technological knowledge and developments. (orig./HSCH)

  14. Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Assessment in the Caribbean

    OpenAIRE

    ARIAS CARBALLO, DIEGO; Laura, dos Reis

    2013-01-01

    A rapid agricultural supply chain risk assessment, recently developed by the World Bank, constitutes a useful tool for a system-wide approach to identify risks, risk exposure, the severity of potential loses, and options for risk management either by supply chain participants (individually or collectively) or by third parties (government). Supply chain risk management is the systematic pro...

  15. Risk Management Assessment Systems: An Application to Islamic Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Habib

    2011-01-01

    Risk management is central in operations of financial institutions, both from business and regulatory perspectives. Risk management is not only about identifying and mitigating risks, but involves a strong risk management system that includes establishing appropriate risk management environment, maintaining an appropriate risk management process, and instituting adequate internal controls. This paper provides a measurable tool to assess the risk management framework in Islamic banks. The stru...

  16. Assessment and insurance risk of foreign economic activity: accounting aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Susyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on research approaches to risk positioning grounded classification of risks arising in foreign trade activity. Deals with issues of assessment and insurance risks expediency display your losses from them. To reduce the negative impact of risks the theoretical foundations of security and practical advice with his reflection in the system of accounts. Grounded algorithm to select the most suitable method of risk assessment and constructed flowchart automation choice method for assessing the risk of foreign trade. The expediency of development of self-insurance risks of foreign economic activity.

  17. Seroprevalence of arboviruses among blood donors in French Polynesia, 2011–2013

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Aubry; Jérôme Finke; Anita Teissier; Claudine Roche; Julien Broult; Sylvie Paulous; Philippe Desprès; Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau; Didier Musso

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: French Polynesia is a high epidemic/endemic area for arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses). We recently reported the silent circulation of Ross River virus and absence of active transmission of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) among blood donors sampled before the emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) and CHIKV in French Polynesia. In this study, the prevalence of the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV) and the occurrence of circulation of other arboviruses were investigated in blood donors i...

  18. Impact of Climate and Mosquito Vector Abundance on Sylvatic Arbovirus Circulation Dynamics in Senegal

    OpenAIRE

    Althouse, Benjamin M.; Hanley, Kathryn A.; Diallo, Mawlouth; Sall, Amadou A.; Ba, Yamar; Faye, Ousmane; Diallo, Diawo; Watts, Douglas M.; Scott C. Weaver; Cummings, Derek A. T.

    2015-01-01

    Sylvatic arboviruses have been isolated in Senegal over the last 50 years. The ecological drivers of the pattern and frequency of virus infection in these species are largely unknown. We used time series analysis and Bayesian hierarchical count modeling on a long-term arbovirus dataset to test associations between mosquito abundance, weather variables, and the frequency of isolation of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We found little correlation between mosquito abundance ...

  19. Mosquito RNAi is the major innate immune pathway controlling arbovirus infection and transmission

    OpenAIRE

    Carol D. Blair

    2011-01-01

    Mosquito-borne arboviruses cause serious diseases in humans that are increasingly becoming public health problems, yet arbovirus infections cause minimal pathology in the mosquito vector, allowing persistent infections and lifelong virus transmission. The principal mosquito innate immune response to virus infections, RNAi, differs substantially from the human immune response and this difference could be the basis for the disparate outcomes of infection in the two hosts. Understanding the mosq...

  20. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  1. Risk Assessment Model for Mobile Malware

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Stanescu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The mobile technology is considered to be the fastest-developing IT security area. Only in the last year security threats around mobile devices have reached new heights in terms of both quality and quantity. The speed of this development has made possible several types of security attacks that, until recently, were only possible on computers. In terms of the most targeted mobile operating systems, Android continues to be the most vulnerable, although new ways of strengthening its security model were introduced by Google. The aim of this article is to provide a model for assessing the risk of mobile infection with malware, starting from a statistical analysis of the permissions required by each application installed into the mobile system. The software implementation of this model will use the Android operating system and in order to do so, we will start by analyzing its permission-based security architecture. Furthermore, based on statistical data regarding the most dangerous permissions, we build the risk assessment model and, to prove its efficiency, we scan some of the most popular apps and interpret the results. To this end, we offer an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of this permission-based model and we also state a short conclusion regarding model’s efficiency.

  2. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  3. Simplified probabilistic risk assessment in fuel reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An evaluation was made to determine if a backup mass tracking computer would significantly reduce the probability of criticality in the fuel reprocessing of the Integral Fast Reactor. Often tradeoff studies, such as this, must be made that would greatly benefit from a Probably Risk Assessment (PRA). The major benefits of a complete PRA can often be accrued with a Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA). An SPRA was performed by selecting a representative fuel reprocessing operation (moving a piece of fuel) for analysis. It showed that the benefit of adding parallel computers was small compared to the benefit which could be obtained by adding parallelism to two computer input steps and two of the weighing operations. The probability of an incorrect material moves with the basic process is estimated to be 4 out of 100 moves. The actual values of the probability numbers are considered accurate to within an order of magnitude. The most useful result of developing the fault trees accrue from the ability to determine where significant improvements in the process can be made. By including the above mentioned parallelism, the error move rate can be reduced to 1 out of 1000

  4. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment for Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betul Demircioglu, Mine; Sesetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-05-01

    Using a GIS-environment to present the results, seismic risk analysis is considered as a helpful tool to support the decision making for planning and prioritizing seismic retrofit intervention programs at large scale. The main ingredients of seismic risk analysis consist of seismic hazard, regional inventory of buildings and vulnerability analysis. In this study, the assessment of the national earthquake hazard based on the NGA ground motion prediction models and the comparisons of the results with the previous models have been considered, respectively. An evaluation of seismic risk based on the probabilistic intensity ground motion prediction for Turkey has been investigated. According to the Macroseismic approach of Giovinazzi and Lagomarsino (2005), two alternative vulnerability models have been used to estimate building damage. The vulnerability and ductility indices for Turkey have been taken from the study of Giovinazzi (2005). These two vulnerability models have been compared with the observed earthquake damage database. A good agreement between curves has been clearly observed. In additional to the building damage, casualty estimations based on three different methods for each return period and for each vulnerability model have been presented to evaluate the earthquake loss. Using three different models of building replacement costs, the average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss ratio (PMLR) due to regional earthquake hazard have been provided to form a basis for the improvement of the parametric insurance model and the determination of premium rates for the compulsory earthquake insurance in Turkey.

  5. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  6. Quantitative Risk Assessment in Titanium Sponge Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasun K. Roy

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available This pap& presents the quantitative risk assessment for the storage of titanium tetrachloride (TiCl,.It is the major reactant used for the production of titanium in the titanium spongeplant. Titanium tetrachloride readily reacts with moisture, leading to the release of toxic hydrogen chloride (HCI.F ire explosive and toxicity index analysis, and hazard and operability(HAZOP studies for the entire titanium sponge plant were carried out. Based on these studies, the TiCl, storage section was found to be one of the most hazardous sections in the titaniumsponge plant. Fault tree analysis technique has been used to identify the basic events responsible for the top event occurrence, ie, release of HCl due to the hydrolysis of TiCl, upon contactwith moisture in the environment during spillagelleakage of TiCl, from the storage tanks and to calculate its probability. Consequence analysis of the probable scenarios has been carriedout. The risk has been estimated in terms of fatality.and injuries. Based on these results, basic input in the form of recommendations for possible changes in the design and operation of thetitanium sponge plant have been made for the risk management.

  7. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  8. Radiological endpoints relevant to ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Because of the potential risk from radiation due to the releases of radionuclides from anthropogenic activities, considerable research was performed to determine for humans the levels of dose received, their responses to the doses and mechanisms of action of radioactivity on living matter. More recently, there is an increased interest in the effects of radioactivity on non-human species. There are differences in approach between risk assessment for humans and ecosystems. For protection of humans, the focus is the individual and the endpoint of primary concern is cancer induction. For protection of ecosystems, the focus is on population stability and the endpoint of concern is reproductive success for organisms important ecologically and economically. For these organisms, information is needed on their responses to irradiation and the potential impact of the doses absorbed on their reproductive success. Considerable information is available on the effects of radiation on organisms from different phyla and types of ecosystems. Databases useful for assessing risk from exposures of populations to radioactivity are the effects of irradiation on mortality, fertility and sterility, the latter two of which are important components of reproductive success. Data on radiation effects on mortality are available both from acute and chronic irradiation. In relation to radiation effects, reproductive success for a given population is related to a number of characteristics of the species, including inherent radiosensitivity of reproductive tissues and early life stages, processes occurring during gametogenesis, reproductive strategy and exposure history. The available data on acute and chronic radiation doses is reviewed for invertebrates, fishes and mammals. The information reviewed indicates that wide ranges in responses with species can be expected. Parameters that most likely contribute to inherent radiosensitivity are discussed. (author)

  9. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  10. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  11. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-01-01

    Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process a...

  12. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  13. Microbiological risk assessment for safe food design & management

    OpenAIRE

    Vásquez, Andrés; Busschaert, Pieter; Geeraerd, Annemie

    2010-01-01

    An important element of microbiological risk analysis, is risk assessment; a process in which the dynamics of microbiological hazards in the food chain are identified and characterized, and the exposure of consumers to the particular hazards is estimated. The current focus of microbiological risk assessment studies is “how it can best be utilized in food safety management to understand the magnitude of prevailing risk regarding a pathogen/product combination, to design risk ...

  14. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  15. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment For Emergency Preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The importance of nuclear power plant PSA has grown up all over the world due to this incident. The main concern of this study is to develop a methodology to carry on an emergency preparedness evaluation and to set an exclusive area, or the emergency response area boundary in order to apply it to domestic reference plants. This study also focuses on evaluating the risk parameter of major nuclides through a sensitivity analysis and a safety assessment by calculating the population dose, early fatality, and cancer fatality rates. A methodology for an emergency preparedness, which can be applied to evaluate the damage of the radioactive release as well as to assess the safety of the accident scenario of a nuclear power plant, has been developed and applied for the reference plants in Korea. By applying a source term analysis, an exclusive zone based on the radioactive dose is obtained. And the results of the health effect assessment based on the release fraction of specific nuclides to public with an effective emergency response activity have been simulated. A methodology utilizing the Level 3 PSA with the actual emergency response activities has been developed and applied to typical nuclear accident situations. The plausible standard for performing an emergency plan is suggested and the valuable information regarding emergency preparedness has been produced in this study. For further works, the sensitivity study on important parameters will be performed to simulate the actual severe accident situations such as sheltering, evacuation, and emergency response activities

  16. Role of risk assessment: risk-informed regulations and requirements for severe accident and risk assessment research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The licensing procedures of nuclear power plants in the Western world, because of their historical development, are based on determinstic approaches incorporating extremely conservative assumptions about risk assessment. The advanced development and application of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) has broadened the range of aspects under which to evaluate the risk and risk factors for nuclear power plants. Both for regulatory authorities and for plant operators, PSA pinpoint the relevance of risk factors, thus allowing the factors to be taken into account to be assigned higher priority, while secondary factors are given lower priority. Licensing procedures more and more are seen to include PSA and PSA findings. However, there is still need for more research and increased application in this field. (orig.)

  17. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2014-01-01

    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  18. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi [Nuclear Science Programme, School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia)

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  19. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m−3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m−3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m−3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m−3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m−3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m−3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m−3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m−3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m−3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m−3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m−3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m−3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m−3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m−3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m−3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0

  20. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  1. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  2. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  3. Evolutionary Consequences for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gochfeld, Michael; Burger, Joanna

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the use of the human health risk assessment model as a basis for developing ecological risk assessment (ERA). For ERA, risk to individuals is less important than the survival of the population, with the exception of endangered species. Suggests that ERA take into account the relative reproductive value of the potentially impacted…

  4. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  5. Inter-system LOCA risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inter-systems loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been included in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) since WASH-1400. While estimated as being relatively low contributors to core damage frequency, ISLOCAs have been identified as major contributors to risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs). They have the potential to result in core melt and containment bypass, which may lead to the early release of large quantities of fission products. Recent events at several operating reactors have been identified as ISLOCA precursors. The occurrence of these events have raised concerns that the frequency of ISLOCA sequences might be underestimated in current state-of-the-art PRAs. In order to expand the current state-of-the-art, a Nuclear Regulatory Commission research program is being conducted by ED and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The objective of the ISLOCA research program is to generate qualitative and quantitative information on the hardware, human factors, and accident consequence issues that dominate nuclear power plant risks for ISLOCA. To meet this objective, the approach being taken includes analysis of all interfaces between the primary reactor coolant system and other, lower pressure systems. This historical experience (primarily, licensee event reports) has provided the basis for determining the scope of the analysis with respect to potential failure mechanisms of the pressure isolation boundary. It is important to note that in the vast majority of these events, the dominant failure was a human error. Because of their significance, human errors are given particular attention in the present analysis

  6. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment. PMID:27177823

  7. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.;

    of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... the actual risk assessment procedures and the risk evaluation, which must proceed the data collection. The report use the terminology ecological risk assessment rather than environmental risk assessment because at present this work does not include bio-geochemical effects and environmental impacts from...... assessment of GM plants when application for placing on the market is made. It is our hope that both the scientific community, the biotechnological industry and the regulatory bodies will participate in the process of improving the present draft, so that it can develop into a useful tool for both...

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

  9. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  10. The Role of RNA Interference (RNAi in Arbovirus-Vector Interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol D. Blair

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available RNA interference (RNAi was shown over 18 years ago to be a mechanism by which arbovirus replication and transmission could be controlled in arthropod vectors. During the intervening period, research on RNAi has defined many of the components and mechanisms of this antiviral pathway in arthropods, yet a number of unexplored questions remain. RNAi refers to RNA-mediated regulation of gene expression. Originally, the term described silencing of endogenous genes by introduction of exogenous double-stranded (dsRNA with the same sequence as the gene to be silenced. Further research has shown that RNAi comprises three gene regulation pathways that are mediated by small RNAs: the small interfering (siRNA, micro (miRNA, and Piwi-interacting (piRNA pathways. The exogenous (exo-siRNA pathway is now recognized as a major antiviral innate immune response of arthropods. More recent studies suggest that the piRNA and miRNA pathways might also have important roles in arbovirus-vector interactions. This review will focus on current knowledge of the role of the exo-siRNA pathway as an arthropod vector antiviral response and on emerging research into vector piRNA and miRNA pathway modulation of arbovirus-vector interactions. Although it is assumed that arboviruses must evade the vector’s antiviral RNAi response in order to maintain their natural transmission cycles, the strategies by which this is accomplished are not well defined. RNAi is also an important tool for arthropod gene knock-down in functional genomics studies and in development of arbovirus-resistant mosquito populations. Possible arbovirus strategies for evasion of RNAi and applications of RNAi in functional genomics analysis and arbovirus transmission control will also be reviewed.

  11. Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

    2016-07-27

    Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence. PMID:27461329

  12. Environmental risk assessment: an Australian perspective. Supervising Scientist Report 102

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Environmental risk assessment can be used as a strategic tool to set environmental priorities and as a tactical tool to set environmental standards. This report is designed to inform Australian environmental managers about the techniques and applications of environmental risk assessment and to familiarize risk analysts with some of the issues that are of concern to environmental managers. The use of risk assessment is illustrated by applying its techniques to five case studies which include: risk from chemicals and from contaminated sites; risk to people and to the natural environment from development, such as uranium mining; climate change; and risk associated with political decision-making. Then, by considering Australian and overseas practice, a generic framework is presented within which environmental risk assessment in Australia can be undertaken, and possible methods of implementation are discussed. refs., 38 figs

  13. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  14. Statistical problems in the assessment of nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Information on nuclear power plant risk assessment is presented concerning attitudinal problems; and methodological problems involving expert opinions, human error probabilities, nonindependent events, uncertainty analysis, and acceptable risk criteria

  15. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  16. Risk assessment of landfill disposal sites - State of the art

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A risk assessment process can assist in drawing a cost-effective compromise between economic and environmental costs, thereby assuring that the philosophy of 'sustainable development' is adhered to. Nowadays risk analysis is in wide use to effectively manage environmental issues. Risk assessment is also applied to other subjects including health and safety, food, finance, ecology and epidemiology. The literature review of environmental risk assessments in general and risk assessment approaches particularly regarding landfill disposal sites undertaken by the authors, reveals that an integrated risk assessment methodology for landfill gas, leachate or degraded waste does not exist. A range of knowledge gaps is discovered in the literature reviewed to date. From the perspective of landfill leachate, this paper identifies the extent to which various risk analysis aspects are absent in the existing approaches

  17. Population-scale assessment endpoints in ecological risk assessment. Part 1: Reflections of stakeholder values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G

    2006-01-01

    The selection of appropriate assessment endpoints is a basic element of an ecological risk assessment, especially at regional or watershed scales. Because ecological services often are tied to specific species, the risk to populations is a critical endpoint and feature of ecological risk assessments. The first item is a discussion of the replacement of population-level risk assessment with the construct of a population-scale assessment endpoint. Next, the criteria that are currently used for assessment endpoints are reviewed and evaluated for utility in an ecological risk assessment. Following this examination, assessment endpoints from a number of regional-scale ecological risk assessments are compared. The outcome of this evaluation is that population-scale assessment endpoints are important expressions of the valued components of ecological structures. Finally, a few recommendations for the selection of assessment endpoints at a population scale are listed. PMID:16640323

  18. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ''baseline'' risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site

  19. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  20. A framework for risk assessment on lean production implementation

    OpenAIRE

    Giuliano Almeida Marodin; Tarcísio Abreu Saurin; Diego de Castro Fettermann

    2014-01-01

    The organizational and technical complexity of implementing the lean principles and practices can become an extensively time consuming journey with few benefits. We argue that risk assessment can aid on the understanding and management of the major difficulties on the Lean production implementation (LPI). Thus, this paper proposes a framework for risk assessment on the LPI process. The literature review permitted to adapt the risk assessment steps to the characteristics of the LPI and develop...

  1. Risk Assessment of Critical Communication Infrastructure in Railways in Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Johnsen, Stig O.; Veen, Mona

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses the significant findings of a risk assessment of infrastructure used in emergency communication by railways in Norway. The initial risk assessment was performed in 2008 and we have reviewed the results in 2010, documenting mitigating actions and their effect. The development of safety and security culture has also been evaluated. The risk assessment was based on a socio-technical approach, which considers technical, organizational and human factors. Action research was us...

  2. European Union Risk Assessment Report - bis (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP)

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    This report provides a summary, with conclusions, of the risk assessment report of the substance bis (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) that has been prepared by Sweden in the context of Council Regulation (EEC) No. 793/93 on the evaluation and control of existing substances. For detailed information on the risk assessment principles and procedures followed, the underlying data and the literature references, the reader is referred to the comprehensive Final Risk Assessment Report (Final RAR...

  3. European Union Summary Risk Assessment Report - Sodium Perborate

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    This report provides a summary, with conclusions, of the risk assessment report of the substance sodium perborate that has been prepared by Austria in the context of Council Regulation (EEC) No. 793/93 on the evaluation and control of existing substances. For detailed information on the risk assessment principles and procedures followed, the underlying data and the literature references, the reader is referred to the comprehensive Final Risk Assessment Report (Final RAR) that can be obtai...

  4. European Union Summary Risk Assessment Report - Benzyl Butyl Phthalate (BBP)

    OpenAIRE

    PAKALIN Sazan; ASCHBERGER Karin; COSGROVE Orna; PAYA PEREZ Ana; VEGRO Stefania

    2008-01-01

    This report provides a summary, with conclusions, of the risk assessment report of the substance benzyl butyl phthalate (BBP) that has been prepared by Norway in the context of Council Regulation (EEC) No. 793/93 on the evaluation and control of existing substances. For detailed information on the risk assessment principles and procedures followed, the underlying data and the literature references the reader is referred to the comprehensive Final Risk Assessment Report (Final RAR) that ca...

  5. European Union Summary Risk Assessment Report - Nitrobenzene - Part I - Environment

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    This report provides a summary, with conclusions, of the risk assessment report of the substance nitrobenzene that has been prepared by Germany in the context of Council Regulation (EEC) No. 793/93 on the evaluation and control of existing substances. For detailed information on the risk assessment principles and procedures followed, the underlying data and the literature references the reader is referred to the comprehensive Final Risk Assessment Report (Final RAR) that can be obtained f...

  6. European Union Summary Risk Assessment Report - Sodium Hydroxide

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    This report provides a summary, with conclusions, of the risk assessment report of the substance sodium hydroxide that has been prepared by Portugal in the context of Council Regulation (EEC) No. 793/93 on the evaluation and control of existing substances. For detailed information on the risk assessment principles and procedures followed, the underlying data and the literature references, the reader is referred to the comprehensive Final Risk Assessment Report (Final RAR) that can be obta...

  7. European Union Summary Risk Assessment Report - 2-nitrotoluene

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    This report provides a summary, with conclusions, of the risk assessment report of the substance 2-nitrotoluene that has been prepared by Spain in the context of Council Regulation (EEC) No. 793/93 on the evaluation and control of existing substances. For detailed information on the risk assessment principles and prcoedures followed, the underlying data and the literature references the reader is referred to the comprehensive final Risk Assessment Report (Final RAR) that can be obtained from ...

  8. Hormesis in Regulatory risk assessment - Science and Science Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Gray, George

    2010-01-01

    This brief commentary will argue that whether hormesis is considered in regulatory risk assessment is a matter less of science than of science policy. I will first discuss the distinction between science and science policy and their roles in regulatory risk assessment. Then I will focus on factors that influence science policy, especially as it relates to the conduct of risk assessments to inform regulatory decisions, with a focus on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The key que...

  9. Cancer Risk Assessment for the Primary Care Physician

    OpenAIRE

    Korde, Larissa A; Gadalla, Shahinaz M.

    2009-01-01

    Cancer is the second leading cause of death in the United States. Cancer risk assessment can be divided into two major categories: assessment of familial or genetic risk and assessment of environmental factors that may be causally related to cancer. Identification of individuals with a suspected heritable cancer syndrome can lead to additional evaluation and to interventions that can substantially decrease cancer risk. Special attention should also be paid to potentially modifiable cancer ris...

  10. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamel, D.R. [Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  11. Risk Assessment Model and Supply Chain Risk Catalog

    OpenAIRE

    Borut Jereb; Tina Cvahte; Bojan Rosi

    2011-01-01

    By managing risk on the level of the supply chain we gain insight of all potential threats to all organizations involved in the chain as well as to the supply chain itself, especially to the logistics resources: flow of goods, services and information; logistics infrastructure and suprastructure; and people. Supply chain risk management should represent a crucial activity in every organization. As there is currently no standard specifically aimed at holistic supply chain risk management, we p...

  12. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  13. Pesticide risk assessment in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ,000 products, and implementing other aspects of the statute, EPA employs about 900 people. Unlike the approval process and actions to cancel pesticides in some countries, in the U.S. they are generally much more transparent. The need for specific test guidelines and the nature of the protocols are debated in the scientific community. Test data adequacy is evaluated according to objective criteria, and study findings are reviewed using standard evaluation procedures and risk assessment guidelines that have been through public comment. Agency risk concerns for a registered pesticide are vetted at a meeting of its Scientific Advisory Panel, a group of technical experts outside of government, where the potential risk case is reviewed and discussed. The meeting is open to the public with opportunity for input from industry, public interest groups, and other parties. Formal Agency regulatory proposals to cancel registered pesticides are published for public review and comment, and there may be several rounds of public involvement before a final decision is reached. Even after a regulatory decision has been made, and unless a settlement has been reached, the Agency is often sued by an environmental group or industry that questions the EPA position; in such situations, the case is then transferred to the court for deliberation. Risks are evaluated for a host of different effects by the pesticide program: acute and chronic, human health and ecological

  14. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  15. Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

    2015-01-01

    Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

  16. Tier 1 Ecological Risk Assessment of a Contaminated Rail Corridor

    OpenAIRE

    Steer, Scott

    2004-01-01

    A screening level ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for a contaminated rail corridor in British Columbia. The purpose of the ERA was to demonstrate the utility of British Columbia Tier 1 ERA methodology for identifying contaminated sites with unacceptable ecological risks requiring remediation andor risk management. The methodology applies a weight of evidence approach to characterize ecological risks with risk quotients and site observations serving as the two lines of evidence....

  17. THE ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE OF THE OPERATIONAL RISK EVENTS

    OpenAIRE

    Iulia Iuga

    2009-01-01

    A credit institution must establish a management framework of the operational risk.This framework must cover the appetite and tolerance to the operational risk of a credit institution,in accordance with the management policies of this risk, including the measure and method inwhich the operational risk is transferred outside the credit institution.The management framework of the operational risk should include policies and processes for theidentification, assessment, monitoring and control/dim...

  18. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  19. Regulatory assessment of risk to the environment: Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    'Health, Safety and Environment' is a familiar catchphrase in today's government departments, universities and industry. This catchphrase is most often associated with terms such as 'risk assessment', 'risk management' and 'hazard identification'. Such grouping demonstrates the underlying assumption that 'risk(s)' to the environment can be dealt with, and are being dealt with, using the same processes as those used for evaluating health and safety risks. This equally applies when the hazard is radiation. Management of risk to the environment is often carried out within a framework of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) incorporating Risk Assessment (RA) processes. Environmental Management Systems (EMS) and Risk Management Systems (RMS) also provide frameworks which incorporate RA processes. These systems are often integrated with existing quality and safety systems. The steps in these frameworks have been explained and comparisons have been drawn of how an EIA process and Environmental Management System compare with Environmental Risk Management processes. These comparisons demonstrate the common elements of each framework. The Australian Standard for Risk Management (AS/NZS 4360:1999) describes the risk management process in terms of establishing a risk context, identification, analysis, evaluation and treatment of risks. The application of risk management procedures as described in the Australian Standard for Risk Management have been discussed in relation to how they might apply to a simple case scenario of a historical landfill containing radioactive waste. (author)

  20. Risk assessment and management in energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nine case studies have been dealt with within the IAEA international coordinated research program ''Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems'', viz.: 1. Reducing radium concentration in uranium mine waste waters; 2. Reducing tritium concentration in nuclear power plant liquid effluents; 3. Reducing radiation exposure of maintenance personnel in nuclear power plants; 4. Reducing the incidence of injuries in power generation; 5. Reducing the radioactivity of gaseous effluents from nuclear power plants in normal operation; 6. Reducing SO2 exhalation; 7. Increasing safety of transport jobs in the nuclear fuel cycle; 8. Reducing the radioactivity of solid wastes from coal-burning power plants; 9. Reducing the content of natural radionuclides in drinking water. Decision analysis is then used to assess the cost-effectiveness of the individual measures. Preconditions and results are summed up for case study No. 5 showing that increasing above 24 the number of sections in the system for reducing the radioactivity of nuclear power plant gaseous effluents in normal operation is not cost-effective. (J.B.). 2 figs., 2 tabs., 11 refs

  1. CEA: assessment of risk management 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes an overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management in different areas: impact on the environment, installation safety, management of occupational risks (occupational health and safety), radiological protection of workers, transportation of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of law risks, controls and audits. It finally presents the risk management department

  2. Risk assessment in incremental software development

    OpenAIRE

    Matsuo, Eric K.

    1999-01-01

    Cost overruns, schedule slips, and projects with fewer features or functions than originally specified are some of the difficulties that the software community faces in almost all software projects. The application of proper risk management throughout the lifecycle of the software development can drastically improve the chances of success. Risk management is an essential skill that many good mangers possess. Utilizing proper risk management provides early risk detection, which in turn gives t...

  3. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-01-01

    In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of...

  4. On the ethical assessment of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The problem with risk is that through a socially relevant decision other people are asked to put up with the less than clear consequences, which do not accord with their subjective risk acceptance. The ethical question is then the question of reasonable criteria for such risks. Two models are discussed, one including morality in and the other precluding morality from technological fields, and they are used to probe for ethical criteria of risk-laden decisions. (DG)

  5. Defining food sampling strategy for chemical risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Wesolek, Nathalie; Roudot, Alain-Claude

    2012-01-01

    International audience Collection of accurate and reliable data is a prerequisite for informed risk assessment and risk management. For chemical contaminants in food, contamination assessments enable consumer protection and exposure assessments. And yet, the accuracy of a contamination assessment depends on both chemical analysis and sampling plan performance. A sampling plan is always used when the contamination level of a food lot is evaluated, due to the fact that the whole lot can not ...

  6. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.;

    2011-01-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing the...... environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... and for ecosystem services in the current area of invasion and in the risk assessment area. To ensure the consistency and transparency of the assessment, a rating system has also been developed based on a probabilistic approach with an evaluation of the degree of uncertainty. Finally, an overview of...

  7. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  8. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Monira Hussain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

  9. The Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment Project: A New Way of Looking at Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unks, Ruth A.; Thor, Linda

    2008-01-01

    This article reviews the Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment (MIRA) project and discusses its challenges and successes. Strategies and resources are offered for assisting community college administrators, faculty, and staff to successfully implement enterprise risk management at their institutions.

  10. Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

  11. 2011 FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Lidar: Nashua River Watershed (Massachusetts, New Hampshire)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data are the lidar points collected for FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) for the Nashua River Watershed. This area falls in portions of...

  12. Taking risk assessment and management to the next level - 59395

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact

  13. Framework for assessing uncertainty in fluvial flood risk mapping

    OpenAIRE

    Beven, Keith; Leedal, Dave; McCarthy, Simon

    2014-01-01

    This CIRIA guide provides a framework for good practice in the assessment of uncertainty in fluvial flood risk mapping. Uncertainty assessments involve subjective assessments and the framework reveals and makes clear those assessments at each stage of the modelling process. The framework makes explicit what has in the past been kept implicit.

  14. Nuclear submarine decommissioning. Radiation risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decommissioning of the ships and vessels with nuclear power installations is a problem of primary and worldwide importance. It is essential for both the naval fleet and the military industrial complex as a whole. Nuclear submarines decommissioning is accompanied by a number of questions concerning the development and performance of the safe technologies for managing radioactive equipment and nuclear waste from the vessels with the nuclear power facilities. Decommissioning of nuclear submarines including unloading of the spent fuel should take place at the operating ship yards and repairing plants that are usually situated close to the densely populated areas and living blocks. Decommissioning includes a series of the potentially dangerous operations with radioactive materials, e.g. fuel unloading, disposal of coolant, dismantling of the contaminated equipment, cutting out the reactor compartment, etc. As a result a great amount of highly radioactive liquid and solid wastes are formed including the cut-out reactor compartment and spent fuel that produce additional radioactive load on the local environment and population. Estimation of the radiation risk for the environment and population due to decommissioning becomes an actual and necessary question. Apart from this the process of decommissioning may cause accidents followed by complicated radiation situation with high dose rates and contamination of the environment. Analysis of the most probable scenarios of the accident development and estimation of the expected radiation consequences should help to assess the risk rate for radiation impact on the environment and population as well as to develop an adequate environmental monitoring and to undertake measures for the accident localisation and liquidation of its consequences. A separate problem is management of the reactor compartment containing radioactive equipment of the steam producing installation and biological protection. Since there are no specialised

  15. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  16. Assessment of the risk of transporting liquid chlorine by rail

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, W.B.

    1980-03-01

    This report presents the risk of shipping liquid chlorine by rail. While chlorine is not an energy material, there are several benefits to studying chlorine transportation risks. First, chlorine, like energy materials, is widely used as a feedstock to industry. Second, it is the major purification agent in municipal water treatment systems and therefore, provides direct benefits to the public. Finally, other risk assessments have been completed for liquid chlorine shipments in the US and Europe, which provide a basis for comparison with this study. None of the previous PNL energy material risk assessments have had other studies for comparison. For these reasons, it was felt that a risk assessment of chlorine transportation by rail could provide information on chlorine risk levels, identify ways to reduce these risks and use previous studies on chlorine risks to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the PNL risk assessment methodology. The risk assessment methodology used in this study is summarized. The methodology is presented in the form of a risk assessment model which is constructed for ease of periodic updating of the data base so that the risk may be reevaluated as additional data become available. The report is sectioned to correspond to specific analysis steps identified in the model. The transport system and accident environment are described. The response of the transport system to accident environments is described. Release sequences are postulated and evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a direct comparison with other reports in this series.

  17. What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

    OpenAIRE

    S. Ravi Rajan; Letourneau, Deborah K.

    2012-01-01

    The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specif...

  18. Experience of CEPN in the field of risk assessment and risk management: Perspectives for future developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Research Center for Nuclear Risk Assessment and Management (CEPN) has been involved for many years in the appraisal and management of technological risks and environmental protection in France. The paper gives a general overview of its past experience and presents orientations for future developments which could serve as support for the advancement of the risk assessment and management methodology. Evaluation of large complex industrial systems should allow progresses in the definition of risk and resources allocation criteria. (author). 26 refs

  19. Comparison of models used for ecological risk assessment and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Models are used to derive action levels for site screening, or to estimate potential ecological or human health risks posed by potentially hazardous sites. At the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), which is RCRA-regulated, the human-health screening action levels are based on hazardous constituents described in RCRA Subpart S and RESRAD-derived soil guidelines (based on 10 mRem/year) for radiological constituents. Also, an ecological risk screening model was developed for a former firing site, where the primary constituents include depleted uranium, beryllium and lead. Sites that fail the screening models are evaluated with site-specific human risk assessment (using RESRAD and other approaches) and a detailed ecological effect model (ECOTRAN). ECOTRAN is based on pharmacokinetics transport modeling within a multitrophic-level biological-growth dynamics model. ECOTRAN provides detailed temporal records of contaminant concentrations in biota, and annual averages of these body burdens are compared to equivalent site-specific runs of the RESRAD model. The results show that thoughtful interpretation of the results of these models must be applied before they can be used for evaluation of current risk posed by sites and the benefits of various remedial options. This presentation compares the concentrations of biological media in the RESRAD screening runs to the concentrations in ecological endpoints predicted by the ecological screening model. The assumptions and limitations of these screening models and the decision process where these are screening models are applied are discussed

  20. Large-scale recoding of an arbovirus genome to rebalance its insect versus mammalian preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Sam H; Stauft, Charles B; Gorbatsevych, Oleksandr; Song, Yutong; Ward, Charles B; Yurovsky, Alisa; Mueller, Steffen; Futcher, Bruce; Wimmer, Eckard

    2015-04-14

    The protein synthesis machineries of two distinct phyla of the Animal kingdom, insects of Arthropoda and mammals of Chordata, have different preferences for how to best encode proteins. Nevertheless, arboviruses (arthropod-borne viruses) are capable of infecting both mammals and insects just like arboviruses that use insect vectors to infect plants. These organisms have evolved carefully balanced genomes that can efficiently use the translational machineries of different phyla, even if the phyla belong to different kingdoms. Using dengue virus as an example, we have undone the genome encoding balance and specifically shifted the encoding preference away from mammals. These mammalian-attenuated viruses grow to high titers in insect cells but low titers in mammalian cells, have dramatically increased LD50s in newborn mice, and induce high levels of protective antibodies. Recoded arboviruses with a bias toward phylum-specific expression could form the basis of a new generation of live attenuated vaccine candidates. PMID:25825721

  1. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  2. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille;

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...... randomly selected 5000 women living in the region of Southern Denmark aged 40-90 years to receive a mailed questionnaire concerning risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX. The predicted 10-year probability of hip fractures was calculated for each woman returning a complete questionnaire using the...... Swedish version of FRAX. The observed 10-year hip fracture risk was also calculated for each woman using age-specific hip fracture rates from the National Hospital Discharge Register and National survival tables. RESULTS: A total of 4194 (84%) women responded to the questionnaire and 3636 (73%) gave...

  3. 78 FR 27939 - Draft Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-13

    ....usda.gov/PDF/Listeria-Transcript_062309.pdf ). As announced by FSIS in the Federal Register (78 FR... monocytogenes Risk Assessment: Notice of a Public Meeting. (74 FR 27276; June 9, 2009). Docket No. FSIS-2009... Draft Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: Notice...

  4. Behavioral Risk Assessment of the Guarded Suicidal Patient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Robert I.

    2008-01-01

    Psychiatrists and other mental health professionals are trained to assess patients by direct observation and examination. Short inpatient length of stay, brief outpatient visits, emergency room evaluations, and other time-limited clinical settings require rapid assessment of suicide risk. Recognition of behavioral suicide risk factors can assist…

  5. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27 Section 1730.27 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS...

  6. Study of occupation health risk assessment on Chinese coal mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIAO Guo-qing; YAN Xiang-nong

    2007-01-01

    Factors of occupation health hazard were identified and analyzed, and indexes system of occupation health risk assessment were established by applying fuzzy theory and system safety technique, the weights of index system were obtained by AHP, finally a reasonable mathematics model of occupation health risk assessment was accomplished by an example.

  7. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENTS (RA.D.1D)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk assessments are based on questions that the assessor asks about scientific information that is relevant to human and/or environmental risk. The risk characterization also provides an evaluation of the assumptions, uncertainties, and selection of studies and models used in th...

  8. Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

    2016-08-01

    In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments. PMID:27234301

  9. Microbiological risk assessment of foods in international trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schothorst, van M.

    2002-01-01

    The international workshop on "Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making" reviewed the use of risk-based decision making across a range of industry sectors and countries. This paper presents the contribution to the workshop covering microbiological risk assessment of foods i

  10. Attacker economics for Internet-scale vulnerability risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Allodi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Vulnerability risk assessment is a crucial process in security management, and the CVSS score is the standard-de-facto risk metric for software vulnerabilities. In this manuscript I show that current risk assessment methodologies do not fit real “in the wild” attack data. I also present my three-steps plan to identify an Internet-scale risk assessment methodology that accounts for attacker economics and opportunities. Eventually, I want to provide answers like the following: “If we depl...

  11. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  12. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  13. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L. [Research Center for Crisis and Conflict Management (ReCCCoM), University of Namur (FUNDP), Faculty of Economic, Social and Management Sciences, Namur (Belgium)

    1998-07-01

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  14. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  15. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crevel, Rene' W. R.; Baumert, Joseph L.; Baka, Athanasia;

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessment...... approaches and methodologies. Food allergens possess some unique characteristics, which make a simple safety assessment approach based on the establishment of absolute population thresholds inadequate. Dose distribution modelling of MEDs permitted the quantification of the risk of reaction at the population...... level and has been readily integrated with consumption and contamination data through probabilistic risk assessment approaches to generate quantitative risk predictions. This paper discusses the strengths and limitations of this approach and identifies important data gaps, which affect the outcomes of...

  16. Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena;

    2016-01-01

    Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans and ...... order to facilitate this process, it is important to transform the current efforts on developing databases and computational models into creating an integrated data and tools infrastructure to support the risk assessment and management of MNs.......Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans and...... the environment. In order to reduce these uncertainties, it is necessary to generate sound scientific data on hazard and exposure by means of relevant frameworks and tools. The development of such approaches to facilitate the risk assessment (RA) of MNs has become a dynamic area of research. The aim...

  17. Development of integrated assessment technology for risk and performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main idea and contents are summarized as below - Development of new risk/performance assessment system innovating old labor-intensive risk assessment structure · New consolidated risk assessment technology from various hazard(flood, fire, seismic) in NPP Consolidated risk/performance management system for consistency and efficiency of NPP Development of the risk-informed severe accident management supporting system - Resolution technology for pending issues in Pasa Basic technology for Pasa of digital I and C system Basic technology for seismic Pasa reflecting domestic seismic characteristics and aging effect Uncertainty reduction technology for level 2 Pasa and best estimation of containment failure frequency - Assessment technology for new emerging risk/performance issues Human-induced error reduction technology for efficient operation of a NPP B/P model development for performance monitoring

  18. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  19. Risk Assessment of Radioactive Waste Disposal Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper contains a short description of analytical method for risk assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities based on calculation of a so-called concentration reduction factor. A conceptual model of a simple near-field intrusion scenario (receptor well), that is being analyzed is described and a review of input parameters characterizing radioactive waste, technical design of facility and site is given. The selected input parameters refer to a surface type of disposal facilities for low and medium level radioactive waste, which are assumed likely to be built in Croatia. The results reached by the analytical method developed by the authors of the article are compared to the results acquired on the same example by applying computer codes GWSCREEN and PAGAN. The authors state a good level of correspondence between them and point out the fact that the analytical method is conservative enough to serve as and adequate approximation to computer codes. The advantages of the analytical method are simplicity of application and minimum requirements for input parameters. This renders itself particularly convenient when only a conceptual technical design is available and when the siting process is not completed so that input parameters are not known to the extent necessary for application of sophisticated computer codes. Furthermore, analytical method approximates disposal facility performance and site characteristic by only one factor (concentration reduction factor), which represents a measure of isolation characteristics of a facility and a site. Such approach enables a simple comparison of various technical designs at a certain site, i.e. a certain technical design on various site. The next significant advantage of analytical method is a relatively simple uncertainty analysis. As an example for this, the paper gives a short survey of one-parameter analysis of uncertainty of total concentration reduction factor for the Sr-90 case. (author)

  20. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  1. Quadrant III RFI draft report: Appendix J, Baseline risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In accordance with the Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (U. S.EPA 1989), which states that background risk should be calculated separately from site-related risk in order to provide important information to the risk manager, this appendix assesses the human health risks associated with background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soil at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS). This appendix is organized as follows: Background Conditions, in which the results of Geraghty ampersand Miller's work on characterizing background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soils is summarized; Identification of Exposure Pathways; Estimation of Environmental Concentrations; Estimation of Human Intake; Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Characterization, in which numerical estimates of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk are calculated for each naturally occurring compound and potential exposure pathway

  2. Risk assessment perspectives in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk evaluation involves a) optimization, where collective dose is reduced by application of controls, b) justification, where benefits and costs are balanced, and c) application of dose limits. Justification may be determined in general by examining the difference between the new practice and a reference condition in the form of a diference equation. This equation is expanded to take into account other risks in addition to radiation risks. The relative potencies of some toxic chemicals are compared with those of some isotopes. Nuclear and waste disposal accidents are also considered. It is concluded that a probablistic analysis may be useful for resolving the high level radioactive waste question but not for nuclear accidents. However, in the latter case, relative risk models may provide insight into the causes of risk and where resources for reducing the risk may be best spent. (H.K.)

  3. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  4. Sodium monofluoroacetate (1080) risk assessment and risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sodium monofluoroacetate (1080) is a vertebrate pesticide widely used for possum control in New Zealand. Fluoroacetate is also a toxic component of poisonous plants found in Australia, South Africa, South America, and India. Because of its importance and effectiveness in pest control and the highly toxic nature of this compound, its acute sub-lethal and target organ toxicity have been extensively studied. In relation to its use as a pesticide its environmental fate, persistence, non-target impacts and general toxicology have been and continue to be extensively studied. Toxic baits must be prepared and used with extreme care, otherwise humans, livestock, and non-target wildlife will be put at risk. The high risk of secondary poisoning of dogs is a cause for concern. 1080 acts by interfering with cellular energy production. Possums die from heart failure, usually within 6-18 h of eating baits. Long-term exposure to sub-lethal doses can have harmful effects and strict safety precautions are enforced to protect contractors and workers in the bait manufacturing industry. Considerable care is taken when using 1080 to ensure that the risks of using it are outweighed by the ecological benefits achieved from its use. When its use is controversial, risk communicators must take care not to trivialise the toxicity of the compound. The benefits of 1080 use in conservation, pest control, and disease control should be weighed up alongside the risks of using 1080 and other techniques for pest control

  5. Integrating Operational and Financial Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Silvia Figini; Ron Kenett; SILVIA SALINI

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel methodology for integrating nan- cial risk and operational risk. In order to demonstrate the approach, we use real data from a telecommunication company providing services to enterprises in di erent business lines and geographical locations. For each enterprise, we have collected information about operational and nancial performance. Our objective is to produce a coherent measure of risk, integrating operational losses from various types of equipment failures and n...

  6. Cavity degradation risk insurance assessment. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hampson, C.; Neill, P.; de Bivort, L.

    1980-01-01

    This study examined the risks and risk management issues involved with the implementation by electric power utilities of compressed air energy storage and underground pumped hydro storage systems. The results are listed in terms of relative risks for the construction and operation of these systems in different geologic deposits, with varying amounts of pressurization, with natural or man-made disasters in the vicinity of the storage equipment, and with different modes of operating the facilities. (LCL)

  7. Statistical method for scientific projects risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Бедрій, Дмитро Іванович

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses the use of statistical methods for risk evaluation of the scientific institutions activity in the public sector of the Ukrainian economy in the process of planning and execution of scientific projects, some of the results of our research in this area are presented. The main objective of the study is to determine the possibility of using the statistical method in the process of evaluation of the research projects risks. The use of risk evaluation methods allows the manag...

  8. ERP post-implementation: risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sobyanina, Elena; Mockutė, Ilona

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this Thesis was to create a framework of 11 risk factors, investigate which of them are the most critical for the company and to find relationships between them Research questions  What continuing risks will the company experience after ERP implementation? What relationships and measures can be constructed to better understand and manage risk factors of post-implementation? Some years ago ERP was a novelty in doing business, but nowadays companies have advanced from the impleme...

  9. Systematic Suicide Risk Assessment for Patients With Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjørup Pedersen, Charlotte; Wallenstein Jensen, Signe Olrik; Gradus, Jaimie; Johnsen, Søren Paaske; Mainz, Jan

    2014-01-01

    predictors of suicide attempt among hospitalized patients with schizophrenia in Denmark. Methods: A one-year follow-up study was conducted of 9,745 patients with schizophrenia who were discharged from psychiatric wards and registered in a national population-based schizophrenia registry between 2005 and 2009...... died by suicide and 8% had attempted suicide. One out of three patients who died by suicide had no documented suicide risk assessment before discharge. Conclusions: The use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge among patients with schizophrenia increased in Denmark between 2005 and 2009......Objectives: Systematic suicide risk assessment is recommended for patients with schizophrenia; however, little is known about the implementation of suicide risk assessment in routine clinical practice. The study aimed to determine the use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge and...

  10. Hereditary cancer risk assessment: essential tools for a better approach

    OpenAIRE

    Gomy, Israel; Estevez Diz, Maria Del Pilar

    2013-01-01

    Hereditary cancer risk assessment (HCRA) is a multidisciplinary process of estimating probabilities of germline mutations in cancer susceptibility genes and assessing empiric risks of cancer, based on personal and family history. It includes genetic counseling, testing and management of at-risk individuals so that they can make well-informed choices about cancer surveillance, surgical treatment and chemopreventive measures, including biomolecular cancer therapies. Providing patients and famil...

  11. Risk Assessment Techniques for Split Capital Investment Trusts

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, Andrew T; Clunie, James

    2003-01-01

    The split capital investment trust crisis has brought into focus the need for more reliable risk assessment techniques for shares in the sector. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of traditional pricing and risk description measures for split capital investment trusts (eg gross redemption yield, cover, hurdle rates) and ways of making these more useful. We then examine alternative pricing and risk assessment techniques (eg option pricing, sensitivity measures). In particular, some of the...

  12. Assessment of health risks caused by air pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is a support document to an other report from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 'Risk assessment - a research programme aimed at health risks from air pollution in the general environment', report 3890, 1991 and is a survey of the scientific 'state of the art' in the different parts of risk assessment. Furthermore certain proposals are made concerning the scientific content of the future research in this area. (au)

  13. Multi-scale landslide risk assessment in Cuba

    OpenAIRE

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.

    2008-01-01

    Landslides cause a considerable amount of damage in the mountainous regions of Cuba, which cover about 25% of the territory. Until now, only a limited amount of research has been carried out in the field of landslide risk assessment in the country. This research presents a methodology and its implementation for spatial landslide risk assessment in Cuba, using a multi-scale approach at national, provincial, municipal and local level. At the national level a landslide risk index was generated, ...

  14. Fire and Spillage Risk Assessment Pattern in Scientific Laboratories

    OpenAIRE

    Manouchehr Omidvari; N Mansouri

    2015-01-01

        Material hazards are the most important risk in scientific laboratories. In risk assessment processing, the potential impact of assessor personal judgment is the most important issue. This study tried to develop a risk assessment pattern based on Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) logics and empirical data in scientific laboratories. The most important issues were high pressure reservoirs and hardware failure fuel. The other type of data about b...

  15. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    OpenAIRE

    Xin Sun; Ping Ning; Xiaolong Tang; Honghong Yi; Kai Li; Lianbi Zhou; Xianmang Xu

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the...

  16. Uncertainties associated with assessing the public health risk from Legionella

    OpenAIRE

    Harriet eWhiley; Alexandra eKeegan; Howard eFallowfield; Kirstin eRoss

    2014-01-01

    Legionella is an opportunistic pathogen of public health concern. Current regulatory and management guidelines for the control of this organism are informed by risk assessments. However, there are many unanswered questions and uncertainties regarding Legionella epidemiology, strain infectivity, infectious dose and detection methods. This review follows the EnHealth Risk Assessment Framework, to examine the current information available regarding Legionella risk and discuss the uncertainties a...

  17. Hurricane flood risk in New York City - a detailed risk assessment of future risks and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Botzen, Wouter; Aerts, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    Hurricane Irene in 2011 and hurricane Sandy in 2012 showed all too clearly how vulnerable New York City (NYC) and the east coast of continental USA is to the devastating effects of coastal flooding. Total repair and recovery costs caused by Sandy in the States of New Jersey and New York totaled around 60 billion. The wake of hurricane Sandy has seen a lively debate on how to cope with this now apparent flood risk, and how it may change in the future. In this research, we developed an integrated flood risk model to assess the flood risk to buildings and vehicles by combining more than 500 synthetic hurricane events with the Hazus-MH4 damage model. Risk is estimated on a refined spatial scale for the current situation, as well as for future conditions around 2050 and 2080 by including population growth and climate change. Climate change is included based on synthetic storms using boundary conditions of 4 different GCMs, representing the effect of sea-level rise as well as a possible increase in storm frequency. The effect of uncertainty in storm water levels and damage estimation is also illustrated. The model results are validated using observations of damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in the region, yielding good agreement, giving confidence in the capacities of the modeling framework. The model results illustrate the spatial extent of the flood risk in New York (at the census block level), yielding an aggregate of 71 million/year for buildings and vehicles (total risk including e.g. infrastructure would roughly be double). The population growth projected by the city will result in a moderate increase in risk (~17%). Climate change, on the other hand, will have a much more profound impact on risk in NYC. Sea-level rise will already have a considerable impact (+60% in 2050s; +150% in 2080s), but coupled with a possible increase in storm frequency, as present in two of the four GCMs, will make for a large increase (+440% in 2050s, +1160%). A future flood risk of up to

  18. Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown

  19. Technology development risk assessment and mixed interests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main purpose of this work is to demonstrate by means of a critical analysis of the state-of-the-art in technological and environmental risk analysis and decision making, that risk and environmental management decisions involve heterogeneous groups of social actors, each representing conflicting interests. It is argued that risk analyses should therefore be based on social interaction and communication paradigma, as well as, on a new rational way of thinking concerning the optimum choice of suitable technological development strategies leading towards a publicly acceptable balance between national energy-economic strategic necessities and social and individual perception of risk

  20. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in diabetes: Risk scoresand provocative testing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause ofmorbidity and mortality among patients with diabetesmellitus, who have a risk of cardiovascular mortalitytwo to four times that of people without diabetes. Anindividualised approach to cardiovascular risk estimationand management is needed. Over the past decades,many risk scores have been developed to predict CVD.However, few have been externally validated in adiabetic population and limited studies have examinedthe impact of applying a prediction model in clinicalpractice. Currently, guidelines are focused on testingfor CVD in symptomatic patients. Atypical symptomsor silent ischemia are more common in the diabeticpopulation, and with additional markers of vasculardisease such as erectile dysfunction and autonomicneuropathy, these guidelines can be difficult to interpret.We propose an algorithm incorporating cardiovascularrisk scores in combination with typical and atypical signsand symptoms to alert clinicians to consider furtherinvestigation with provocative testing. The modalities forinvestigation of CVD are discussed.

  1. Radon programme in the Netherlands: risk assessment and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Dutch policy on the control of the risk of radon is predominantly based on the results of the Radon Research Programme. Important topics of the Radon Research Programme are described. Furthermore, the Dutch policy on indoor radiation is reviewed in view of the national environmental policy and radiation risk management. The policy on the control of radon in domestic and other buildings is related to other policies, both national and international, e.g. economic, environmental and housing policy. A short review of these relations in the Netherlands is given. In brief a description will be given of the attention paid by the government to the communication strategies used in order to enforce, for instance, remedial actions and the implementation of risk reduction technology. (author)

  2. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.

    2009-04-01

    to March) precipitation, the number of days with maximum temperature between 24°C and 28°C and the number of days of May with minimum temperature below 0°C is able to model the chestnut productivity with r2 equal to 0.79. It should be pointed out that the relation between weather/climate and chestnut productivity may change over time. Finally, it is important to express objectively the effects of temperature and precipitation extremes on the chestnut productivity since temperature is one of the global circulation models predicted variables with less uncertainty. With these tools will be possible to assess the weather related risk on chestnut production as well as infer about evolution of the adequate conditions to the chestnut trees in the actual plantations and about the expansion of this specie. Bounous, G. (2002) "Il castagno" [Chestnut.] - Edagricole, Bologna. [In Ital.] Gomes-Laranjo, J., Coutinho, J.P., Ferreira-Cardoso, J., Pimentel-Pereira, M., Ramos, C., Torres-Pereira, J.(2005) "Assessment to a new concept of chestnut orchard management in vegetative wall.". Acta Hort. 693: 707-712. Gomes-Laranjo, J.C.E., Peixoto, F., Wong Fong Sang, H.W., Torres-Pereira, J.M.G.(2006) "Study of the temperature effect in three chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivars' behavior". J. Plant Physiol. 163: 945-955.

  3. Arboviruses and apoptosis: the role of cell death in determining vector competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clem, Rollie J

    2016-05-01

    A relatively small number of mosquito species transmit arboviruses such as dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and West Nile viruses to hundreds of millions of people each year, yet we still lack a thorough understanding of the molecular factors that determine vector competence. Apoptosis has been shown to be an important factor in determining the outcome of virus infection for many viruses. However, until recently, it was not clear whether apoptosis plays a role in determining the outcome of arbovirus infections in mosquitoes. Recent work has begun to shed light on the roles of apoptosis in this important process. PMID:26872460

  4. Development of a system utilizing data of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report deals with a concrete method of utilizing data of risk assessment. First, the authors point out the necessity to assess all stages of jobs (planning, meeting with contractors, performing phase of task, etc.) in risk assessment bout jobs in electric power company, because most jobs are performed by contract system and risks of a job are distributed over electric company, contractors and subcontractors. Secondly, risks estimated from past accidents and near-miss events must be included. If these 2 requirements are fulfilled, data of risk assessment can be more useful. Then below 4 forms of present data of risk assessment were developed. A form to be used in job planning stage in electric companies for efficient investment planning in safety measures. A form to be used in meetings between electric companies and contractors for checking accident prevention methods. A form to be used in meetings between contractors and subcontractors for enhancing a shared awareness of risk. A form to be used in tool box meetings for confirming safe condition and inheriting of ability of risk perception. Additionally, a data base system of risk assessment about 4 jobs was developed. This system prints out about 4 forms for each job and is useful for PDCA of safety activities. (author)

  5. Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessing the uncertainties in and severity of the consequences of intelligent attacks are fundamentally different from risk assessment for accidental events and other phenomena with inherently random failures. Intelligent attacks against a system involve adaptation on the part of the adversary. The probabilities of the initiating events depend on the risk management actions taken, and they may be more difficult to assess due to high degrees of epistemic uncertainty about the motivations and future actions of adversaries. Several fundamentally different frameworks have been proposed for assessing risk from intelligent attacks. These include basing risk assessment and management on game theoretic modelling of attacker actions, using a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach based on eliciting probabilities of different initiating events from appropriate experts, assessing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values, and ignoring the probabilities of the attacks and choosing to protect highest valued targets. In this paper we discuss and compare the fundamental assumptions that underlie each of these approaches. We then suggest a new framework that makes the fundamental assumptions underlying the approaches clear to decision makers and presents them with a suite of results from conditional risk analysis methods. Each of the conditional methods presents the risk from a specified set of fundamental assumptions, allowing the decision maker to see the impacts of these assumptions on the risk management strategies considered and to weight the different conditional results with their assessments of the relative likelihood of the different sets of assumptions.

  6. Is There a Role for Qualitative Risk Assessment?

    OpenAIRE

    Krause, Paul J.; Fox, John; Judson, Philip

    2013-01-01

    Classically, risk is characterized by a point value probability indicating the likelihood of occurrence of an adverse effect. However, there are domains where the attainability of objective numerical risk characterizations is increasingly being questioned. This paper reviews the arguments in favour of extending classical techniques of risk assessment to incorporate meaningful qualitative and weak quantitative risk characterizations. A technique in which linguistic uncertainty terms are define...

  7. Political Risks and Their Assessment in Strategic Management Accounting

    OpenAIRE

    Valentyna Khodzytska; Mariya Shyhun

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the article is to develop an approach to the definition of the political risk in the system of strategic management of the company, representation the set of properties of political risk, in terms of its nature and factors of influence. It highlights the main aspects of the impact of political risk on strategic decision-making in the system of integrated management of business entities. It substantiates the importance of timely risk assessment and management, taking appropriate pre...

  8. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  9. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  10. Bleeding Risk Assessment in Atrial Fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lip, Gregory Y H; Lane, Deirdre A

    2016-01-01

    Stroke prevention is central to the management of atrial fibrillation (AF), and effective thromboprophylaxis requires oral anticoagulation (OAC). Even a single stroke risk factor confers excess risk, and the net clinical benefit of treatment is positive for OAC compared to no treatment or aspirin...

  11. Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

  12. A comparison of models for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Various mathematical models have been used to represent the dependence of excess cancer risk on dose, age and time since exposure. For solid cancers, i.e. all cancers except leukaemia, the so-called relative risk model is usually employed. However, there can be quite different relative risk models. The most usual model for the quantification of excess tumour rate among the atomic bomb survivors has been a dependence of the relative risk on age at exposure, but it has been shown recently that an age attained model can be equally applied, to represent the observations among the atomic bomb survivors. The differences between the models and their implications are explained. It is also shown that the age attained model is similar to the approaches that have been used in the analysis of lung cancer incidence among radon exposed miners. A more unified approach to modelling of radiation risks can thus be achieved. (3 figs.)

  13. Improvement of risk assessment method for application of risk information at Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP), various types of accidents are postulated because unsealed radioactive materials are scattered in several chemical processes. We had been developed the risk assessment method (so called QSA, Quantitative Safety Assessment) for the reprocessing plant to conduct efficiency assessments for such many kinds of accidents and to understand dispersion of risk of them at the RRP. Utilization of risk information for the maintenance activities is one of the concrete purposes of risk assessment. The precise risk importance is indispensable to achieve these purposes. QSA employs Functional Units (FUs) to evaluate the accident frequency. FU is used as a basic element in QSA likewise basic event in PRA. It consists of one to ten basic events such as failure rate, unreliability, common cause failure rate, and others. Naturally, the risk importance is evaluated at individual FU. Therefore, the new function to decompose a risk importance of FU into risk importance of a component which composed the FU is developed. As a result, the precise risk importance of individual component will be successfully obtained from QSA. For accumulation of risk information of RRP, improvement of quality of risk assessment and trial application of risk information will be continued. (author)

  14. Assessment of nitrate contamination risk: The Italian experience

    OpenAIRE

    Capri, E.; Delgado Huertas, Antonio; VASSALLO, M

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to show the results of the Italian research project of national interest (PRIN) launched in 2006 and finished in 2008, concerning the “assessment of groundwater contamination risk by nitrates assessment”. The project verified the IPNOA method for nitrate groundwater contamination risk assessment in four test-sites of Italy. The IPNOA is a parametric index which assesses the potential hazard of nitrate contamination originating from agriculture on a regional scale....

  15. DoD/DoN requirements for computer risk assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Black, Margaret A.; Doherty, Martin F.

    1983-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The current methodology for conducting computer Risk Assessments within the Department of the Navy is examined by studying the theories and philosophies that have evolved from the perspective of the Federal Government. A review of the Navy's attitude and procedures for both contractual assistance and inhcuse approaches to conducting Risk Assessments is presented, along with a general framework for conducting an assessment of the ...

  16. The Prospects of Using Fuzzy Approaches to Ecological Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Uzhga-Rebrov, Oleg; Kuleshova, Galina

    2015-01-01

    The issue of environmental quality improvement has been receiving much attention in the developed countries in recent years. Due to that, the role of assessment of ecological risks associated both with natural events and technogene activity of humans is increasing. Previous approaches to the assessment of ecological risks were fully based on statistical data and expert evaluation of potential losses and probabilities of unfavourable consequences. When this kind of assessment is carried out, i...

  17. Ozone flux modelling for risk assessment: status and research needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuovinen J-P

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, some shortcomings involved in the modelling of ozone fluxes in the context of local-scale risk assessment are discussed, especially as related to the data collected within the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests. An enhanced monitoring strategy, that would provide a sounder basis for the development, validation and application of risk assessment modelling tools, is also suggested.

  18. Development of a system for landslide risk assessment for Cuba

    OpenAIRE

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.; Westen, C. J. van

    2005-01-01

    In many developing countries, such as Cuba, landslide-affected areas are not systematically mapped in a national inventory and no “regional to local” approach for landslide hazard and risk assessment has been carried out so far. Most of the conventional landslide studies in Cuba are qualitative in nature and focus on description of phenomena or on landslide susceptibility assessment. Moreover, most of the quantitative landslides risk assessment methodologies that have been developed elsewhere...

  19. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  20. Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

    2016-05-01

    Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.