WorldWideScience

Sample records for arboviruses risk assessment

  1. A geographical information system-based web model of arbovirus transmission risk in the continental United States of America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Sarah K; Zou, Li; Miller, Scott N

    2012-11-01

    A degree-day (DD) model of West Nile virus capable of forecasting real-time transmission risk in the continental United States of America up to one week in advance using a 50-km grid is available online at https://sites. google.com/site/arbovirusmap/. Daily averages of historical risk based on temperatures for 1994-2003 are available at 10km resolution. Transmission risk maps can be downloaded from 2010 to the present. The model can be adapted to work with any arbovirus for which the temperature-related parameters are known, e.g. Rift Valley fever virus. To more effectively assess virus establishment and transmission, the model incorporates "compound risk" maps and forecasts, which includes livestock density as a parameter.

  2. [Entomological factors of arboviruses emergences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jourdain, F; Roiz, D; Perrin, Y; Grucker, K; Simard, F; Paupy, C

    2015-08-01

    Arboviruses - viruses transmitted by haematophagous arthropods - are responsible for febrile syndromes, which sometimes include haemorrhagic or neurological symptoms. Human activities have facilitated the emergence of these originally zoonotic viruses and the domestication and spread throughout the world of their major vectors. The last decade has seen significant changes in the epidemiology of arboviruses transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes, particularly in relation to the intercontinental spread of Aedes albopictus. Here, we address the epidemiological consequences of the invasion by this species into Central Africa and Europe in a context of viral globalization. The risk of transmission in these areas is influenced by virus-vector adaptation phenomena as well as environmental phenomena including climate. Faced with these new risks, it is essential to develop competences in entomological and virological surveillance, risk assessment and forecasting of epidemic risk in order to develop strategies for the prevention and control of epidemics.

  3. Assessment of Arbovirus Surveillance 13 Years after Introduction of West Nile Virus, United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadler, James L; Patel, Dhara; Nasci, Roger S; Petersen, Lyle R; Hughes, James M; Bradley, Kristy; Etkind, Paul; Kan, Lilly; Engel, Jeffrey

    2015-07-01

    Before 1999, the United States had no appropriated funding for arboviral surveillance, and many states conducted no such surveillance. After emergence of West Nile virus (WNV), federal funding was distributed to state and selected local health departments to build WNV surveillance systems. The Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists conducted assessments of surveillance capacity of resulting systems in 2004 and in 2012; the assessment in 2012 was conducted after a 61% decrease in federal funding. In 2004, nearly all states and assessed local health departments had well-developed animal, mosquito, and human surveillance systems to monitor WNV activity and anticipate outbreaks. In 2012, many health departments had decreased mosquito surveillance and laboratory testing capacity and had no systematic disease-based surveillance for other arboviruses. Arboviral surveillance in many states might no longer be sufficient to rapidly detect and provide information needed to fully respond to WNV outbreaks and other arboviral threats (e.g., dengue, chikungunya).

  4. Nature, nurture and evolution of intra-species variation in mosquito arbovirus transmission competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabachnick, Walter J

    2013-01-11

    Mosquitoes vary in their competence or ability to transmit arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses). Many arboviruses cause disease in humans and animals. Identifying the environmental and genetic causes of variation in mosquito competence for arboviruses is one of the great challenges in public health. Progress identifying genetic (nature) and environmental (nurture) factors influencing mosquito competence for arboviruses is reviewed. There is great complexity in the various traits that comprise mosquito competence. The complex interactions between environmental and genetic factors controlling these traits and the factors shaping variation in Nature are largely unknown. The norms of reaction of specific genes influencing competence, their distributions in natural populations and the effects of genetic polymorphism on phenotypic variation need to be determined. Mechanisms influencing competence are not likely due to natural selection because of the direct effects of the arbovirus on mosquito fitness. More likely the traits for mosquito competence for arboviruses are the effects of adaptations for other functions of these competence mechanisms. Determining these other functions is essential to understand the evolution and distributions of competence for arboviruses. This information is needed to assess risk from mosquito-borne disease, predict new mosquito-arbovirus systems, and provide novel strategies to mitigate mosquito-borne arbovirus transmission.

  5. Nature, Nurture and Evolution of Intra-Species Variation in Mosquito Arbovirus Transmission Competence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter J. Tabachnick

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mosquitoes vary in their competence or ability to transmit arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses. Many arboviruses cause disease in humans and animals. Identifying the environmental and genetic causes of variation in mosquito competence for arboviruses is one of the great challenges in public health. Progress identifying genetic (nature and environmental (nurture factors influencing mosquito competence for arboviruses is reviewed. There is great complexity in the various traits that comprise mosquito competence. The complex interactions between environmental and genetic factors controlling these traits and the factors shaping variation in Nature are largely unknown. The norms of reaction of specific genes influencing competence, their distributions in natural populations and the effects of genetic polymorphism on phenotypic variation need to be determined. Mechanisms influencing competence are not likely due to natural selection because of the direct effects of the arbovirus on mosquito fitness. More likely the traits for mosquito competence for arboviruses are the effects of adaptations for other functions of these competence mechanisms. Determining these other functions is essential to understand the evolution and distributions of competence for arboviruses. This information is needed to assess risk from mosquito-borne disease, predict new mosquito-arbovirus systems, and provide novel strategies to mitigate mosquito-borne arbovirus transmission.

  6. [Emerging arboviruses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaller, Amandine; Moulin, Estelle; Cherpillod, Pascal; Kaiser, Laurent; De Vallière, Serge; Boillat-Blanco, Noémie

    2016-05-01

    Many arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) underwent a dramatic geographic expansion over the last few years, following the spread of their vectors. It is the case for dengue, currently endemic in most tropical regions, for chikungunya and Zika viruses, which propagated rapidly over a considerable territory. West Nile is one of the most broadly distributed arboviruses in the world. The clinical presentation of these viral infections is non-specific (fever, arthralgia, headache, rash). For travelers presenting with fever within 15 days after returning from an endemic area, laboratory tests can distinguish them. The management is essentially supportive but a specific diagnosis might be important in anticipating possible complications and in decreasing the number of laboratory tests often offered in the case of fever of unknown origin. PMID:27323483

  7. [Emerging arboviruses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaller, Amandine; Moulin, Estelle; Cherpillod, Pascal; Kaiser, Laurent; De Vallière, Serge; Boillat-Blanco, Noémie

    2016-05-01

    Many arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) underwent a dramatic geographic expansion over the last few years, following the spread of their vectors. It is the case for dengue, currently endemic in most tropical regions, for chikungunya and Zika viruses, which propagated rapidly over a considerable territory. West Nile is one of the most broadly distributed arboviruses in the world. The clinical presentation of these viral infections is non-specific (fever, arthralgia, headache, rash). For travelers presenting with fever within 15 days after returning from an endemic area, laboratory tests can distinguish them. The management is essentially supportive but a specific diagnosis might be important in anticipating possible complications and in decreasing the number of laboratory tests often offered in the case of fever of unknown origin.

  8. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radiation hormesis hypothesis is discussed claiming that low dose ionizing radiation shows positive biological effects. The hypothesis could not be demonstrably proved. In the last decade, new disciplines have been developing, such as risk assessment and risk management that, on the basis of proven results and the consideration of all circumstances quantitatively assess and test possible risks. (M.D.). 1 fig

  9. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...

  10. Culicoides biting midges, arboviruses and public health in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Simon; Groschup, Martin H; Garros, Claire; Felippe-Bauer, Maria Luiza; Purse, Bethan V

    2013-10-01

    The emergence of multiple strains of bluetongue virus (BTV) and the recent discovery of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in Europe have highlighted the fact that exotic Culicoides-borne arboviruses from remote geographic areas can enter and spread rapidly in this region. This review considers the potential for this phenomenon to impact on human health in Europe, by examining evidence of the role of Culicoides biting midges in the zoonotic transmission and person-to-person spread of arboviruses worldwide. To date, the only arbovirus identified as being primarily transmitted by Culicoides to and between humans is Oropouche virus (OROV). This member of the genus Orthobunyavirus causes major epidemics of febrile illness in human populations of South and Central America and the Caribbean. We examine factors promoting sustained outbreaks of OROV in Brazil from an entomological perspective and assess aspects of the epidemiology of this arbovirus that are currently poorly understood, but may influence the risk of incursion into Europe. We then review the secondary and rarely reported role of Culicoides in the transmission of high-profile zoonotic infections, while critically reviewing evidence of this phenomenon in endemic transmission and place this in context with the presence of other potential vector groups in Europe. Scenarios for the incursions of Culicoides-borne human-to-human transmitted and zoonotic arboviruses are then discussed, along with control measures that could be employed to reduce their impact. These measures are placed in the context of legislative measures used during current and ongoing outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in Europe, involving both veterinary and public health sectors.

  11. Encephalitic Arboviruses: Emergence, Clinical Presentation, and Neuropathogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi, Hamid; Cain, Matthew D; Klein, Robyn S

    2016-07-01

    Arboviruses are arthropod-borne viruses that exhibit worldwide distribution, contributing to systemic and neurologic infections in a variety of geographical locations. Arboviruses are transmitted to vertebral hosts during blood feedings by mosquitoes, ticks, biting flies, mites, and nits. While the majority of arboviral infections do not lead to neuroinvasive forms of disease, they are among the most severe infectious risks to the health of the human central nervous system. The neurologic diseases caused by arboviruses include meningitis, encephalitis, myelitis, encephalomyelitis, neuritis, and myositis in which virus- and immune-mediated injury may lead to severe, persisting neurologic deficits or death. Here we will review the major families of emerging arboviruses that cause neurologic infections, their neuropathogenesis and host neuroimmunologic responses, and current strategies for treatment and prevention of neurologic infections they cause.

  12. Encephalitic Arboviruses: Emergence, Clinical Presentation, and Neuropathogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi, Hamid; Cain, Matthew D; Klein, Robyn S

    2016-07-01

    Arboviruses are arthropod-borne viruses that exhibit worldwide distribution, contributing to systemic and neurologic infections in a variety of geographical locations. Arboviruses are transmitted to vertebral hosts during blood feedings by mosquitoes, ticks, biting flies, mites, and nits. While the majority of arboviral infections do not lead to neuroinvasive forms of disease, they are among the most severe infectious risks to the health of the human central nervous system. The neurologic diseases caused by arboviruses include meningitis, encephalitis, myelitis, encephalomyelitis, neuritis, and myositis in which virus- and immune-mediated injury may lead to severe, persisting neurologic deficits or death. Here we will review the major families of emerging arboviruses that cause neurologic infections, their neuropathogenesis and host neuroimmunologic responses, and current strategies for treatment and prevention of neurologic infections they cause. PMID:27220616

  13. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  14. Mosquito immunity against arboviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sim, Shuzhen; Jupatanakul, Natapong; Dimopoulos, George

    2014-11-19

    Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) pose a significant threat to global health, causing human disease with increasing geographic range and severity. The recent availability of the genome sequences of medically important mosquito species has kick-started investigations into the molecular basis of how mosquito vectors control arbovirus infection. Here, we discuss recent findings concerning the role of the mosquito immune system in antiviral defense, interactions between arboviruses and fundamental cellular processes such as apoptosis and autophagy, and arboviral suppression of mosquito defense mechanisms. This knowledge provides insights into co-evolutionary processes between vector and virus and also lays the groundwork for the development of novel arbovirus control strategies that target the mosquito vector.

  15. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  16. Pipeline risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kariyawasam, S. [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Weir, D. [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)] (comps.)

    2009-07-01

    Risk assessments and risk analysis are system-wide activities that include site-specific risk and reliability-based decision-making, implementation, and monitoring. This working group discussed the risk management process in the pipeline industry, including reliability-based integrity management and risk control processes. Attendants at the group discussed reliability-based decision support and performance measurements designed to support corporate risk management policies. New developments and technologies designed to optimize risk management procedures were also presented. The group was divided into 3 sessions: (1) current practice, strengths and limitations of system-wide risk assessments for facility assets; (2) accounting for uncertainties to assure safety; and (3) reliability based excavation repair criteria and removing potentially unsafe corrosion defects. Presentations of risk assessment procedures used at various companies were given. The role of regulators, best practices, and effective networking environments in ensuring the success of risk assessment policies was discussed. Risk assessment models were also reviewed.

  17. Heart Attack Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Pressure Tools & Resources Stroke More Heart Attack Risk Assessment Updated:May 31,2016 We're sorry, but ... Can You Recognize a Heart Attack? Quiz Risk Assessment Patient Information Sheets: Heart Attack Heart Attack Personal ...

  18. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  19. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  20. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  1. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP)

  2. Deployable Molecular Detection of Arboviruses in the Australian Outback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inglis, Timothy J J; Bradbury, Richard S; McInnes, Russell L; Frances, Stephen P; Merritt, Adam J; Levy, Avram; Nicholson, Jay; Neville, Peter J; Lindsay, Michael; Smith, David W

    2016-09-01

    The most common causes of human infection from the arboviruses that are endemic in Australia are the arthritogenic alphaviruses: Ross River virus (RRV) and Barmah Forest virus (BFV). The most serious infections are caused by the neurotropic flaviviruses, Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) and the Kunjin subtype of West Nile virus. The greatest individual risk of arbovirus infection occurs in tropical/subtropical northern Australia because of the warm, wet summer conditions from December to June, where conventional arbovirus surveillance is difficult due to a combination of low population density, large distances between population centers, poor roads, and seasonal flooding. Furthermore, virus detection requires samples to be sent to Perth up to 2,000 km away for definitive analysis, causing delays of days to weeks before test results are available and public health interventions can be started. We deployed a portable molecular biology laboratory for remote field detection of endemic arboviruses in northern Queensland, then in tropical Western Australia and detected BFV, MVEV, and RRV RNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays of extracts from mosquitoes trapped in Queensland. We then used a field-portable compact real-time thermocycler for the samples collected in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Real-time field PCR assays enabled concurrent endemic arbovirus distribution mapping in outback Queensland and Western Australia. Our deployable laboratory method provides a concept of operations for future remote area arbovirus surveillance.

  3. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  4. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  5. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  6. Biosafety risk assessment methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  7. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  8. Landslide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  9. Public Risk Assessment Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  10. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to assess cardiac risk include: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) : Studies have shown that measuring ... LDL-C but does not respond to typical strategies to lower LDL-C such as diet, exercise, ...

  11. Environmental risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  12. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  13. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  14. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH)

  15. Arbovirus-mosquito interactions: RNAi pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Ken E; Blair, Carol D

    2015-12-01

    Arthropod-borne (arbo) viruses infect hematophagous arthropods (vectors) to maintain virus transmission between vertebrate hosts. The mosquito vector actively controls arbovirus infection to minimize its fitness costs. The RNA interference (RNAi) pathway is the major antiviral response vectors use to restrict arbovirus infections. We know this because depleting RNAi gene products profoundly impacts arbovirus replication, the antiviral RNAi pathway genes undergo positive, diversifying selection and arboviruses have evolved strategies to evade the vector's RNAi responses. The vector's RNAi defense and arbovirus countermeasures lead to an arms race that prevents potential virus-induced fitness costs yet maintains arbovirus infections needed for transmission. This review will discuss the latest findings in RNAi-arbovirus interactions in the model insect (Drosophila melanogaster) and in specific mosquito vectors.

  16. Molecular detection technologies for arboviruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthropod-borne animal viruses (arboviruses) cause significant livestock and economic losses to world agriculture. This paper discusses the current and potential impact of these viruses, as well as the current and developing molecular diagnostic tools for these emerging and re-emerging insect transm...

  17. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.)

  18. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  19. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  20. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  1. Arbovirus Prevalence in Mosquitoes, Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    LaBeaud, A. Desiree; Sutherland, Laura J.; Muiruri, Samuel; Muchiri, Eric M.; Gray, Laurie R; Zimmerman, Peter A; Hise, Amy G.; King, Charles H.

    2011-01-01

    Few studies have investigated the many mosquito species that harbor arboviruses in Kenya. During the 2006–2007 Rift Valley fever outbreak in North Eastern Province, Kenya, exophilic mosquitoes were collected from homesteads within 2 affected areas: Gumarey (rural) and Sogan-Godud (urban). Mosquitoes (n = 920) were pooled by trap location and tested for Rift Valley fever virus and West Nile virus. The most common mosquitoes trapped belonged to the genus Culex (75%). Of 105 mosquito pools teste...

  2. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing foodregulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  3. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SIMONBROOKE-TAYLOR

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supple,The World Trade Oranization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.The relevant international organization for food standards,the Codex Alimentarius Commission,recognises risk analysis,and its component parts risk assessment,risk management and risk communication as the basis for scientific decision-making,Risk assessment comprises two activities:hazard evaluation;and exposure estimation.A hazard may be chemical,microbiological or nutritional in origin,The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation y four examples involving:(1) food additives,(2) microiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses,(3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  4. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G;

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  5. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  6. Replication cycle of chikungunya: A re-emerging arbovirus

    OpenAIRE

    Solignat, Maxime; Gay, Bernard; Higgs, Stephen; Briant, Laurence; Devaux, Christian

    2009-01-01

    Arboviruses (or arthropod-borne viruses), represent a threat for the new century. The 2005–2006 year unprecedented epidemics of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the French Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean, followed by several outbreaks in other parts of the world such as India, have attracted the attention of clinicians, scientists, and state authorities about the risks linked to this re-emerging mosquito-borne virus. CHIKV, which belongs to the Alphaviruses genus, was not previously regarded a...

  7. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sabre J. Coleman; Zalk, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues b...

  8. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  9. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  10. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Ghana Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Choudhary, Vikas; D'Alessandro, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Improved agricultural risk management is one of the core enabling actions of the Group of Eight’s (G-8’s) New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition. The Agricultural Risk Management Team (ARMT) of the Agriculture and Environment Services Department of the World Bank conducted an agricultural sector risk assessment to better understand the dynamics of agricultural risks and identify appropriate responses, incorporate agricultural risk perspective into decision-making, and bui...

  12. Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2016-01-01

    In the agricultural sector, risks are inherent and ubiquitous, posing potentially serious consequences for stakeholders and consumers. Risks disrupt supply chains, causing extensive financial and economic losses. Agricultural risks are also the principal cause of transient food insecurity, creating a poverty trap for millions of households across the developing world that enforces a viciou...

  13. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  14. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  15. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be...... substantial enough to be a risk. A hazard does not necessarily constitute a risk, as efforts can be done to minimize risk by reducing the exposure. Thus, the relationship between hazard and risk must be treated cautiously. Fora robust risk assessment good data on exposure to the substance is needed and...... exposure data for other similarly acting substances are needed for assessing the risk for mixture effects. Such data may, however, often be absent. Toxicological potency, i.e. the lowest dose found to cause adverse effects, has been proposed as one of the key characteristics when evaluating safety of a...

  16. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  17. Arboviruses in North Dakota, 2003-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, John F; Main, Andy J; Armstrong, Philip M; Andreadis, Theodore G; Ferrandino, Francis J

    2015-02-01

    To investigate arbovirus transmission in North Dakota, we collected and screened mosquitoes for viral infection by Vero cell culture assay. Seven viruses were isolated from 13 mosquito species. Spatial and temporal distributions of the important vectors of West Nile virus (WNV), Cache Valley virus, Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV), and trivittatus virus are reported. Snowshoe hare virus, Potosi virus, and western equine encephalomyelitis virus were also isolated. The risks of Culex tarsalis and Aedes vexans transmitting WNV to humans were 61.4% and 34.0% in 2003-2006, respectively, but in 2003 when the largest epidemic was reported, risks for Ae. vexans and Cx. tarsalis in Cass County were 73.6% and 23.9%, respectively. Risk of humans acquiring an infectious bite was greatest from about the second week of July through most of August. West Nile virus sequences were of the WN02 genotype. Most JCV strains belonged to a single clade of genetically related strains. Cache Valley virus and JCV were prevalent during August and early September and during July and August, respectively.

  18. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  19. Quantitative risk assessment of CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.; Spruijt, M.; Molag, M.; Ramírez, A.; Turkenburg, W.; Faaij, A.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO2 pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperat

  20. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland;

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  1. Genetic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on the induction of germ cell mutations in mammals international and national committees developed concepts for quantifying radiation-induced genetic risk in humans. Genetic effects dominated the thinking o the UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effect of Atomic Radiation) Report in 1958, the BEAR (Biological Effects of Atomic Radiations) Report form the National Academy of Sciences, the National Research Council in 1956, and the British counterpart, the Medical Research Council , in 1956. an interesting personal account of the development of the work of the BEIR (Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations) and UNSCEAR Committee was published recently by Russell. The quality of risk estimation depends on the data base and on the concepts used. The current status of both aspects for quantifying genetic risk is reviewed in this paper

  2. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  3. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  4. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  5. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  6. Tissue Barriers to Arbovirus Infection in Mosquitoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, Alexander W E; Kantor, Asher M; Passarelli, A Lorena; Clem, Rollie J

    2015-07-08

    Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) circulate in nature between arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts. Arboviruses often cause devastating diseases in vertebrate hosts, but they typically do not cause significant pathology in their arthropod vectors. Following oral acquisition of a viremic bloodmeal from a vertebrate host, the arbovirus disease cycle requires replication in the cellular environment of the arthropod vector. Once the vector has become systemically and persistently infected, the vector is able to transmit the virus to an uninfected vertebrate host. In order to systemically infect the vector, the virus must cope with innate immune responses and overcome several tissue barriers associated with the midgut and the salivary glands. In this review we describe, in detail, the typical arbovirus infection route in competent mosquito vectors. Based on what is known from the literature, we explain the nature of the tissue barriers that arboviruses are confronted with in a mosquito vector and how arboviruses might surmount these barriers. We also point out controversial findings to highlight particular areas that are not well understood and require further research efforts.

  7. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... the emissions, how should they be defined and classified and what should be measured? LCA have many of these issues in common with RA. There is a need to understand which properties of nanomaterials are crucial for the assessment of their potential transformation and fate as well as their ability to cause...

  8. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  9. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  10. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, ...

  11. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... know before using this tool: The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool was designed for use by doctors and other health providers with their patients. If you are not a health ... your personal risk of colorectal cancer. (Colorectal cancer is another way ...

  12. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  13. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  14. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  15. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  16. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  17. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  18. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  19. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  20. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  1. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  2. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  3. Determinants of Arbovirus Vertical Transmission in Mosquitoes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Lequime

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Vertical transmission (VT and horizontal transmission (HT of pathogens refer to parental and non-parental chains of host-to-host transmission. Combining HT with VT enlarges considerably the range of ecological conditions in which a pathogen can persist, but the factors governing the relative frequency of each transmission mode are poorly understood for pathogens with mixed-mode transmission. Elucidating these factors is particularly important for understanding the epidemiology of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses of public health significance. Arboviruses are primarily maintained by HT between arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts in nature, but are occasionally transmitted vertically in the vector population from an infected female to her offspring, which is a proposed maintenance mechanism during adverse conditions for HT. Here, we review over a century of published primary literature on natural and experimental VT, which we previously assembled into large databases, to identify biological factors associated with the efficiency of arbovirus VT in mosquito vectors. Using a robust statistical framework, we highlight a suite of environmental, taxonomic, and physiological predictors of arbovirus VT. These novel insights contribute to refine our understanding of strategies employed by arboviruses to persist in the environment and cause substantial public health concern. They also provide hypotheses on the biological processes underlying the relative VT frequency for pathogens with mixed-mode transmission that can be tested empirically.

  4. Determinants of Arbovirus Vertical Transmission in Mosquitoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lequime, Sebastian; Paul, Richard E; Lambrechts, Louis

    2016-05-01

    Vertical transmission (VT) and horizontal transmission (HT) of pathogens refer to parental and non-parental chains of host-to-host transmission. Combining HT with VT enlarges considerably the range of ecological conditions in which a pathogen can persist, but the factors governing the relative frequency of each transmission mode are poorly understood for pathogens with mixed-mode transmission. Elucidating these factors is particularly important for understanding the epidemiology of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) of public health significance. Arboviruses are primarily maintained by HT between arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts in nature, but are occasionally transmitted vertically in the vector population from an infected female to her offspring, which is a proposed maintenance mechanism during adverse conditions for HT. Here, we review over a century of published primary literature on natural and experimental VT, which we previously assembled into large databases, to identify biological factors associated with the efficiency of arbovirus VT in mosquito vectors. Using a robust statistical framework, we highlight a suite of environmental, taxonomic, and physiological predictors of arbovirus VT. These novel insights contribute to refine our understanding of strategies employed by arboviruses to persist in the environment and cause substantial public health concern. They also provide hypotheses on the biological processes underlying the relative VT frequency for pathogens with mixed-mode transmission that can be tested empirically.

  5. Risk Assessment for Banking Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Helmut Elsinger; Alfred Lehar; Martin Summer

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we suggest a new approach to risk assessment for banks. Rather than looking at them individually we try to undertake an analysis at the level of the banking system. Such a perspective is necessary because the complicated network of mutual credit obligations can make the actual risk exposure of banks invisible at the level of individual institutions. We apply our framework to a cross section of individual bank data as they are usually collected at the central bank. Using standard...

  6. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  7. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  8. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  9. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  10. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met

  11. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  12. Radiation protection and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In its publications 22 and 26, ICRP recommends a method of optimization that requires that first the risks of the considered activity be quantitatively assessed. This paper deals with the transportation of radioactive material. Several aspects are examined: assessing risk quantitatively (as an expected number of health effects), determining the most cost-effective alternative options and applying the method to a practical example. Two of the possible applications of the results are presented in the case of transportation of UF6 in France: 1) the cost-effectiveness analysis of a set of alternative protection measures and 2) the comparison between such measures affecting risks in nuclear transportation and other measures dealing with different steps of the whole uranium fuel cycle. (HK)

  13. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  14. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  15. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  16. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  17. Automating Spreadsheet Discovery & Risk Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Perry, Eric

    2008-01-01

    There have been many articles and mishaps published about the risks of uncontrolled spreadsheets in today's business environment, including non-compliance, operational risk, errors, and fraud all leading to significant loss events. Spreadsheets fall into the realm of end user developed applications and are often absent the proper safeguards and controls an IT organization would enforce for enterprise applications. There is also an overall lack of software programming discipline enforced in how spreadsheets are developed. However, before an organization can apply proper controls and discipline to critical spreadsheets, an accurate and living inventory of spreadsheets across the enterprise must be created, and all critical spreadsheets must be identified. As such, this paper proposes an automated approach to the initial stages of the spreadsheet management lifecycle - discovery, inventory and risk assessment. Without the use of technology, these phases are often treated as a one-off project. By leveraging techn...

  18. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  19. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  20. Apollo 13 Risk Assessment Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Bukovics, István

    2007-01-01

    Fault tree methodology is the most widespread risk assessment tool by which one is able to predict - in principle - the outcome of an event whenever it is reduced to simpler ones by the logic operations conjunction and disjunction according to the basics of Boolean algebra. The object of this work is to present an algorithm by which, using the corresponding computer code, one is able to predict - in practice - the outcome of an event whenever its fault tree is given in the u...

  1. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  2. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    OpenAIRE

    Saša T. Bakrač; Mladen M. Vuruna; MIŠKO M. MILANOVIĆ

    2012-01-01

    Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be imple...

  3. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    The topics of regulation and risk assessment of nanomaterials have never been more relevant and controversial in Europe than they are at this point in time. In this entry, we present and discuss a number of major pieces of legislation relevant for the regulation of nanomaterials, including REACH......, the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...... a number of limitations specific to nanomaterials, i.e., the fact that mass might not be the proper metric to describe the dose in dose–response assessment. These limitations are not easily overcome despite the fact that a lot of effort is being put into investigating the applicability of each...

  4. Understanding the Wolbachia-mediated inhibition of arboviruses in mosquitoes: progress and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainey, Stephanie M; Shah, Pranav; Kohl, Alain; Dietrich, Isabelle

    2014-03-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) pose a considerable threat to human and animal health, yet effective control measures have proven difficult to implement, and novel means of controlling their replication in arthropod vectors, such as mosquitoes, are urgently required. One of the most exciting approaches to emerge from research on arthropods is the use of the endosymbiotic intracellular bacterium Wolbachia to control arbovirus transmission from mosquito to vertebrate. These α-proteobacteria propagate through insects, in part through modulation of host reproduction, thus ensuring spread through species and maintenance in nature. Since it was discovered that Wolbachia endosymbiosis inhibits insect virus replication in Drosophila species, these bacteria have also been shown to inhibit arbovirus replication and spread in mosquitoes. Importantly, it is not clear how these antiviral effects are mediated. This review will summarize recent work and discuss determinants of antiviral effectiveness that may differ between individual Wolbachia/vector/arbovirus interactions. We will also discuss the application of this approach to field settings and the associated risks.

  5. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify t

  6. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  7. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    OpenAIRE

    Gaetano Liuzzo; Stefano Bentley; Federica Giacometti; Silvia Piva; Andrea Serraino

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed.

  8. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  9. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  10. PREVALENCE OF ARBOVIRUS ANTIBODIES AGAINST THE FAMILY Bunyaviridae IN WATER BUFFALOES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Rosário Casseb

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The State of Pará comprises 26% of Brazilian Amazon region where a large diversity of arboviruses has been described. This study sought to assess the prevalence and distribution of haemagglutination-inhibition antibodies against antigens of nine different types of arbovirus of the Bunyaviridae family, where eight were Orthobunyavirus: Guaroa virus, Maguari virus, Tacaiuma virus, Utinga virus, Belem virus, Caraparu virus, Oropouche virus and Catu virus, and one Phlebovirus: Icoaraci virus in sera samples of water buffaloes in Pará State, Brazil. For all Arboviruses investigated there were antibodies, with the exception of Belem virus. Antibodies to Maguari virus were more prevalent (7.33%. The water buffaloes of the present study showed variable levels of antibodies in monotypic and heterotypic reactions that may indicate there are movements from most bunyavirus studied in domestic buffaloes in the state of Pará, and the Maguari virus presents the largest circulation. Therefore, further studies are needed to investigate the role of water buffalo in the maintenance and dispersal of arboviruses, as well as whether these viruses can cause disease in that species, especially in cases of birth defects and abortions.

  11. Arbovirus en Latinoamérica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JL Arredondo-García

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Las enfermedades producidas por arbovirus son un problema muy grave a nivel mundial, debido a que su vigilancia y prevención implica también la vigilancia de sus vectores, lo que hace difícil su control y casi imposible evitar su expansión a cualquier país tropical o subtropical, e incluso algunas regiones templadas. A nivel mundial, el  dengue es la enfermedad por arbovirus más común con 40% de la población mundial viviendo en zonas de transmisión del virus del dengue. De las 390 millones de infecciones estimadas y 100 millones de casos anuales, una proporción pequeña de estos casos progresa a dengue grave. Aproximadamente uno de cada 2,000 casos de dengue causan la muerte; sin embargo, la tasa de letalidad de los pacientes con dengue grave se puede reducir de casi 10% a menos del 0.1% si se actúa rápidamente y con calidad en la atención clínica que reciben los pacientes. Esto, aunado a la reciente y rápida propagación del virus chikungunya y el brote de virus zika en países latinoamericanos, como México, hace necesaria la actualización médica y revisión de bibliografía respecto a la prevención, control y gestión de las infecciones causadas por arbovirus. Por lo tanto, presentamos una revisión de lo más reciente sobre enfermedades por arbovirus en América Latina.

  12. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  13. Risk assessment as a prediction of recidivism

    OpenAIRE

    Zavackis, Anvars

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment and management is one of the key organising frameworks of crime control in modern society. The aim of the thesis is to research risk assessment practices in predicting crime recidivism and to assess the consequences of implementing these practices, also providing for description of historical, social, cultural and political aspects of their development and maintenance. The initial analysis of risk is a theoretical one, employing insights from different risk sociology theories....

  14. Role of microRNAs in arbovirus/vector interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asgari, Sassan

    2014-09-23

    The role of microRNAs (miRNAs) as small non-coding RNAs in regulation of gene expression has been recognized. They appear to be involved in regulation of a wide range of cellular pathways that affect several biological processes such as development, the immune system, survival, metabolism and host-pathogen interactions. Arthropod-borne viruses impose great economic and health risks around the world. Recent advances in miRNA biology have shed some light on the role of these small RNAs in vector-virus interactions. In this review, I will reflect on our current knowledge on the role of miRNAs in arbovirus-vector interactions and the potential avenues for their utilization in limiting virus replication and/or transmission.

  15. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  16. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  17. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  18. European risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, M.H.A.; Luiijf, H.A.M.; Nieuwenhuijs, A.H.; Cavenne, F.; Ulisse, A.; Bridegeman, G.

    2008-01-01

    Most risk assessment methodologies aim at the risk at the level of an individual organization or company. The European Union commissioned a study to define the elements for a uniform and scalable risk assessment methodology which takes into account critical infrastructure dependencies across organiz

  19. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  20. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  1. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  2. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  3. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  4. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  5. Implementing Cargo Movement into Climate Based Risk Assessment of Vector-Borne Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Margarete Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito has rapidly spread around the globe. Global shipment of goods contributes to its permanent introduction. Invaded regions are facing novel and serious public health concerns, especially regarding the transmission of formerly non-endemic arboviruses such as dengue and chikungunya. The further development and potential spread to other regions depends largely on their climatic suitability. Here, we have developed a tool for identifying and prioritizing European areas at risk for the establishment of Aedes albopictus by taking into account, for the first time, the freight imports from this mosquito’s endemic countries and the climate suitability at harbors and their surrounding regions. In a second step we consider the further transport of containers by train and inland waterways because these types of transport can be well controlled. We identify European regions at risk, where a huge amount of transported goods meet climatically suitable conditions for the disease vector. The current and future suitability of the climate for Aedes albopictus was modeled by a correlative niche model approach and the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. This risk assessment combines impacts of globalization and global warming to improve effective and proactive interventions in disease vector surveillance and control actions.

  6. Enveloped virus-like particles as vaccines against pathogenic arboviruses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pijlman, G.P.

    2015-01-01

    Arthropod-borne arboviruses form a continuous threat to human and animal health, but few arboviral vaccines are currently available. Advances in expression technology for complex, enveloped virus-like particles (eVLPs) create new opportunities to develop potent vaccines against pathogenic arboviruse

  7. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According ...

  8. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.;

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  9. Insect-Specific Virus Discovery: Significance for the Arbovirus Community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolling, Bethany G; Weaver, Scott C; Tesh, Robert B; Vasilakis, Nikos

    2015-09-10

    Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), especially those transmitted by mosquitoes, are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in humans and animals worldwide. Recent discoveries indicate that mosquitoes are naturally infected with a wide range of other viruses, many within taxa occupied by arboviruses that are considered insect-specific. Over the past ten years there has been a dramatic increase in the literature describing novel insect-specific virus detection in mosquitoes, which has provided new insights about viral diversity and evolution, including that of arboviruses. It has also raised questions about what effects the mosquito virome has on arbovirus transmission. Additionally, the discovery of these new viruses has generated interest in their potential use as biological control agents as well as novel vaccine platforms. The arbovirus community will benefit from the growing database of knowledge concerning these newly described viral endosymbionts, as their impacts will likely be far reaching.

  10. Insect-Specific Virus Discovery: Significance for the Arbovirus Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bethany G. Bolling

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses, especially those transmitted by mosquitoes, are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in humans and animals worldwide. Recent discoveries indicate that mosquitoes are naturally infected with a wide range of other viruses, many within taxa occupied by arboviruses that are considered insect-specific. Over the past ten years there has been a dramatic increase in the literature describing novel insect-specific virus detection in mosquitoes, which has provided new insights about viral diversity and evolution, including that of arboviruses. It has also raised questions about what effects the mosquito virome has on arbovirus transmission. Additionally, the discovery of these new viruses has generated interest in their potential use as biological control agents as well as novel vaccine platforms. The arbovirus community will benefit from the growing database of knowledge concerning these newly described viral endosymbionts, as their impacts will likely be far reaching.

  11. Replication cycle of chikungunya: a re-emerging arbovirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solignat, Maxime; Gay, Bernard; Higgs, Stephen; Briant, Laurence; Devaux, Christian

    2009-10-25

    Arboviruses (or arthropod-borne viruses), represent a threat for the new century. The 2005-2006 year unprecedented epidemics of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the French Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean, followed by several outbreaks in other parts of the world such as India, have attracted the attention of clinicians, scientists, and state authorities about the risks linked to this re-emerging mosquito-borne virus. CHIKV, which belongs to the Alphaviruses genus, was not previously regarded as a highly pathogenic arbovirus. However, this opinion was challenged by the death of several CHIKV-infected persons in Reunion Island. The epidemic episode began in December 2005 and four months later the seroprevalence survey report indicated that 236,000 persons, more than 30% of Reunion Island population, had been infected with CHIKV, among which 0.4-0.5% of cases were fatal. Since the epidemic peak, the infection case number has continued to increase to almost 40% of the population, with a total of more than 250 fatalities. Although information available on CHIKV is growing quite rapidly, we are still far from understanding the strategies required for the ecologic success of this virus, virus replication, its interactions with its vertebrate hosts and arthropod vectors, and its genetic evolution. In this paper, we summarize the current knowledge of CHIKV genomic organization, cell tropism, and the virus replication cycle, and evaluate the possibility to predict its future evolution. Such understanding may be applied in order to anticipate future epidemics and reduce the incidence by development and application of, for example, vaccination and antiviral therapy. PMID:19732931

  12. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  13. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  14. Risk assessment of plant protection products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardy T

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR Panel provides independent scientific advice in the field of risk assessment of plant protection products (PPPs, pesticides. Since its establishment in 2003 under Regulation (EC No 178/2002, it has delivered a series of scientific outputs in support of evaluation of pesticide active substances, establishing scientific principles and guidance documents in the field of pesticide risk assessment and in support of decision making of European Union (EU law makers. Next to a series of scientific opinions evaluating specific adverse effects of PPPs for human health (like for instance carcinogenicity the Panel also delivered scientific opinions on general principles in the field of human health risk assessment (like reference value setting and is, in particular over the last years, very much engaged in development of methodologies to meet new challenges in regulatory risk assessments such as assessment of toxicity of pesticide metabolites and potential cumulative effects of pesticides to human health. Fate, behaviour and transformation of pesticides after their application and consequent release to the environment are a major aspect of pesticide risk assessment. The PPR Panel has achieved major accomplishments by delivering guidance and scientific opinions on degradation in soil, exposure of soil organisms and assessment of environmental risks by use of pesticides in greenhouses or grown under cover. A series of scientific opinions have been delivered also in the field of environmental risk assessment of pesticides. Scientific output covered specific issues arising in the peer review of specific active substances, revision of data requirements, development of risk assessment methodologies and the development of guidance documents. A major milestone of the PPR Panel was the development of the methodological framework for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk

  15. GHGT-11 - Integrated Carbon Risk Assessment (ICARAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollenweber, J.; Busby, D.; Wessel-Berg, D.; Nepveu, M.; Bossie Codreanu, D.; Grimstad, A-A.; Sijacic, D.; Maurand, N.; Lothe, A.; Wahl, F.; Polak, S.; Boot, H.; Grøver, A.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper an integrated workflow is described for risk assessment within CCS. IFPEN, SINTEF and TNO joined forces to define a comprehensive and transparent risk assessment methodology. The tools developed in these institutes are thereby integrated. The workflow can be applied to proposed carbon

  16. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to aquat

  17. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process.

  18. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process. PMID:12298344

  19. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  20. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  1. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  2. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  3. [Zika virus: Another emerging arbovirus in Venezuela?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero Nereida

    2015-09-01

    Current health conditions of Venezuela, together with the tropical proliferation of different types of Aedes (aegypti and albopictus), suggest the arrival to this country of ZIKA virus (ZIKV). The Pan American Health Organization urges Latin American countries to take measures to prevent the ZIKV entry and advises that these measures must be designed to detect the introduction of ZIKV in an area, track its spread and actively monitor the disease. In Venezuela and other Latin-American countries, where endemicity is high for other arboviruses such as dengue arid chikungunya, health authorities should strengthen their surveillance systems to detect early and timely introduction of ZIKV ap.d refine diagnostic methods to confirm the infection rate; however, the high incidence of cases due those viral agents reflects weakened and poorly timed insensitive monitoring systems, as well as, poor vector control measures, arising the questions: will this arbovirus pop in our country, will it set as the other as edemicepidemic and lead to alter their clinical behavior and severity of the disease? PMID:26710538

  4. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.;

    2012-01-01

    types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include...

  5. Survey: Risk Assessment for Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Drissi S.; Houmani H.; Medromi H.

    2013-01-01

    with the increase in the growth of cloud computing and the changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers, the cloud consumers should be aware of the risks and vulnerabilities present in the current cloud computing environment. An information security risk assessment is designed specifically for that task. However, there is lack of structured risk assessment approach to do it. This paper aims to survey existing knowledge re...

  6. Mathematical Approach to Security Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Vrabel; Marcel Abas; Pavol Tanuska; Pavel Vazan; Michal Kebisek; Michal Elias; Zuzana Sutova; Dusan Pavliak

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to provide a mathematical threat modeling methodology and a threat risk assessment tool that may assist security consultants at assessing the security risks in their protected systems/plants, nuclear power plants and stores of hazardous substances: explosive atmospheres and flammable and combustible gases and liquids, and so forth, and at building an appropriate risk mitigation policy. The probability of a penetration into the protected objects is estimated by com...

  7. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH)

  8. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Zhengchao Ma; Dan Zhang; Wangyang Wei; Chunlei Yang; Qingtao Wu; Mingchuan Zhang; Ruijuan Zheng

    2013-01-01

    In terms of Internet of Things (IOT) system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi...

  9. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Voss, T.; Lenstra, Arjen K.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is currently under development for deployment. We show how to find a risk mitigation strategy that is optimal with respect to the model used and the available budget.

  10. The insect microbiome modulates vector competence for arboviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jupatanakul, Natapong; Sim, Shuzhen; Dimopoulos, George

    2014-11-11

    Diseases caused by arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), such as Dengue, West Nile, and Chikungunya, constitute a major global health burden and are increasing in incidence and geographic range. The natural microbiota of insect vectors influences various aspects of host biology, such as nutrition, reproduction, metabolism, and immunity, and recent studies have highlighted the ability of insect-associated bacteria to reduce vector competence for arboviruses and other pathogens. This reduction can occur through mechanisms, such as immune response activation, resource competition, or the production of anti-viral molecules. Studying the interactions between insect vectors and their microbiota is an important step toward developing alternative strategies for arbovirus transmission control.

  11. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengchao Ma

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In terms of Internet of Things (IOT system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi-rule mapping relationship between the qualitative input of safety indicators and the quantitative reasoning of self-assessment. Finally, we build security risk assessment simulation platform, and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm in the premise of substantiating the risk level and the safety criterion domain.

  12. Models to Assess the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Valeria TOMA

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Closely related to financial risk assessment, one of the main concerns of the organizations should be the evaluation of bankruptcy risk, in this period of slow economic growth. Organization bankruptcies have increased in recent years worldwide. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the methods and models for forecasting bankruptcy of organizations, for the bankruptcy risk assessment are seeing for the health financing of an entity in financial accounting diagnosis and that the organizations requires assessment of risks accompanying the work, in which some signals fragility (vulnerable health this and other projected bankruptcy (insolvability threatens its survival (continuity. The bankruptcy risk assessment is important for profit-seeking investors because they must know how to value a company in or near bankruptcy is an important skill, but to detect any signs of looming bankruptcy is necessary to calculate and to analyse all kinds of financial rations: working capital, profitability, debt levels and liquidity.

  13. Survey: Risk Assessment for Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drissi S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available with the increase in the growth of cloud computing and the changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers, the cloud consumers should be aware of the risks and vulnerabilities present in the current cloud computing environment. An information security risk assessment is designed specifically for that task. However, there is lack of structured risk assessment approach to do it. This paper aims to survey existing knowledge regarding risk assessment for cloud computing and analyze existing use cases from cloud computing to identify the level of risk assessment realization in state of art systems and emerging challenges for future research.

  14. Tajikistan Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Broka, Sandra; Giertz, Åsa; Christensen, Garry; Hanif, Charity; Rasmussen, Debra

    2016-01-01

    Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of mor...

  15. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  16. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  17. Security risk assessment handbook a complete guide for performing security risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Landoll, Douglas J

    2005-01-01

    The Security Risk Assessment Handbook: A Complete Guide for Performing Security Risk Assessments provides detailed insight into precisely how to conduct an information security risk assessment. Designed for security professionals and their customers who want a more in-depth understanding of the risk assessment process, this volume contains real-world advice that promotes professional development. It also enables security consumers to better negotiate the scope and rigor of a security assessment, effectively interface with a security assessment team, deliver insightful comments on a draft repor

  18. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... as a powerful tool for the evaluation of potential health consequences of planned measures. It is often discussed whether HIA is not just another term or form of risk assessment and what is their relation. Our aim is to discuss similarities and differences between the two methods so as to clarify...

  19. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  20. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  1. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  2. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  3. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  4. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  5. Safety Factors in Pesticide Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, N.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G. A. J. M.

    Foreword It has become common practice to protect the environment from hazardous chemicals by use of risk assessment to establish environmental concentration at which only limited damage to the ecosystem can be expected. The methods and tools applied in the risk assessment need constant evaluation...... to secure that the methodology is adequate. As new knowledge surfaces the risk assessment procedures develops. The present report is a contribution to the development of safety factors used to account for the uncertainty when · extrapolating from the results of test with a single species in the laboratory...... factors used in pesticide risk assessment: the variability in species sensitivities, and the relationship between acute LC50's and chronic NOEC's....

  6. Bayesian networks for enterprise risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bonafede, C E

    2006-01-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover qualitative data must be converted in numerical values to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Network is a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a Bayesian networks in the parti...

  7. The Insect Microbiome Modulates Vector Competence for Arboviruses

    OpenAIRE

    Natapong Jupatanakul; Shuzhen Sim; George Dimopoulos

    2014-01-01

    Diseases caused by arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), such as Dengue, West Nile, and Chikungunya, constitute a major global health burden and are increasing in incidence and geographic range. The natural microbiota of insect vectors influences various aspects of host biology, such as nutrition, reproduction, metabolism, and immunity, and recent studies have highlighted the ability of insect-associated bacteria to reduce vector competence for arboviruses and other pathogens. This reduction...

  8. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky;

    2001-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En......-vironmental Design of Industrial Products) developed in Denmark, respectively. A very important feature of LCA is the relative assessment due to the use of a functional unit. Risk assessment on the other hand is an absolute assessment, which may require very specific and detailed information on e.g. the exposure...... conditions. It is concluded that the conceptual background and the purpose of the tools are different but that there are overlaps where they may benefit from each other and they do complement each other in an overall environmental effort....

  9. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  10. Risk assessment in Obsessive Compulsive Disorder

    OpenAIRE

    Veale, David; Freeston, M; Krebs, Georgina; Heyman, Isobel; Salkovskis, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Some people with obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) experience recurrent intrusive sexual, aggressive or death-related thoughts and as a result may be subjected to lengthy or inappropriate risk assessments. These apparent ‘primary’ risks can be dealt with relatively easily through a careful understanding of the disorder’s phenomenology. However, there are other, less obvious ‘secondary’ risks, which require more careful consideration. This article discusses the differentiation of intrusive t...

  11. Risk Assessment Techniques for Civil Aviation Security

    OpenAIRE

    Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimisation of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantifi...

  12. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  13. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as currently

  14. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kammen, van Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly

    2002-01-01

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  15. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10-5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10-7/year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency for

  16. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  17. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  18. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeger M

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU. Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils, application of spatial spread models, re-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU Plant Health Regime is being formulated. The legislative consequences of the revision will be of considerable significance for the work of the Plant Health Panel.

  19. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  20. Benefit-Risk Assessment in Drug Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarac, Sinan

    This thesis covers the development, testing and use of an eight-step structured method for data-driven benefit-risk assessment. The aim of this thesis was to create a tailored method for the assessment of clinical data. The focus has been on three major aspects: (i) A simple preliminary method wa...

  1. Risk Assessment Study for Storage Explosive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Azhar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, there has been rapidly increasing usage in amount of explosives due to widely expansion in quarrying and mining industries. The explosives are usually stored in the storage where the safety precaution had given high attention. As the storage of large quantity of explosive can be hazardous to workers and nearby residents in the events of accidental denotation of explosives, a risk assessment study for storage explosive (magazine had been carried out. Risk assessment study had been conducted in Kimanis Quarry Sdn. Bhd, located in Sabah. Risk assessment study had been carried out with the identification of hazards and failure scenarios and estimation of the failure frequency of occurrence. Analysis of possible consequences of failure and the effects of blast waves due to the explosion was evaluated. The risk had been estimated in term of fatalities and eardrum rupture to the workers and public. The average individual voluntary risk for fatality to the workers at the quarry is calculated to be 5.75 x 10-6 per person per year, which is much lower than the acceptable level. Eardrum rupture risk calculated to be 3.15 x 10-6 per person per year for voluntary risk. There is no involuntary risk found for fatality but for eardrum rupture it was calculated to be 6.98 x 10-8 per person per year, as given by Asian Development Bank.

  2. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  3. Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios." The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

  4. Risk assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

    OpenAIRE

    Waigmann E; Paoletti C; Davies H; Perry J; Kärenlampi S; Kuiper H

    2012-01-01

    EFSA’s remit in the risk assessment of GMOs is very broad encompassing genetically modified plants, microorganisms and animals and assessing their safety for humans, animals and the environment. The legal frame for GMOs is set by Directive 2001/18/EC on their release into the environment, and Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 on GM food and feed. The main focus of EFSA’s GMO Panel and GMO Unit lies in the evaluation of the scientific risk assessment of new applications for market authoris...

  5. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  6. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David;

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  7. Can we assess genetic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, somatic considerations have been weighed more heavily than genetic risks in determining radiation standards, although the genetic risks cannot be ignored. Familiar generalizations about mutations may be that almost all mutants, chromosomal or point mutations, are harmful or at best neutral. At any one time, population is to some extent impaired by recurrent mutation. The extent of impairment depends on many things, but particularly it depends on the mutation rate. If population is at equilibrium, there is a standing number of mutant genes, determined by the balance between recurrent mutation and the elimination of mutants by selection and other factors. Doubling of mutation and halving of individual mutant damage have essentially the same effect. If a mutant reduces the Darwinian fitness of its bearer by 1%, it will affect on the average 100 individuals before it is eliminated. The data obtained from the experiments with Drosophila suggest that the ratio of mutants, whose homozygous effect is lethal to those whose effect is mild, is higher in radiation-induced mutants than in spontaneous ones. Chemically-induced mutants may be more like spontaneous mutants. All measures of congenital defects, morphology, survival, and sex-ratio have shown no difference between the children of exposed parents and those of control groups, as observed in the Hiroshima-Nagasaki studies. The heterozygous effects of recessive mutants, minor deleterious mutants and the expression of recessive condition spread out over a long time, and are diluted so that the impact on a single generation is very slight. (Yamashita, S.)

  8. Arboviruses pathogenic for domestic and wild animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubálek, Zdenek; Rudolf, Ivo; Nowotny, Norbert

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to provide an updated and concise systematic review on taxonomy, history, arthropod vectors, vertebrate hosts, animal disease, and geographic distribution of all arboviruses known to date to cause disease in homeotherm (endotherm) vertebrates, except those affecting exclusively man. Fifty arboviruses pathogenic for animals have been documented worldwide, belonging to seven families: Togaviridae (mosquito-borne Eastern, Western, and Venezuelan equine encephalilitis viruses; Sindbis, Middelburg, Getah, and Semliki Forest viruses), Flaviviridae (mosquito-borne yellow fever, Japanese encephalitis, Murray Valley encephalitis, West Nile, Usutu, Israel turkey meningoencephalitis, Tembusu and Wesselsbron viruses; tick-borne encephalitis, louping ill, Omsk hemorrhagic fever, Kyasanur Forest disease, and Tyuleniy viruses), Bunyaviridae (tick-borne Nairobi sheep disease, Soldado, and Bhanja viruses; mosquito-borne Rift Valley fever, La Crosse, Snowshoe hare, and Cache Valley viruses; biting midges-borne Main Drain, Akabane, Aino, Shuni, and Schmallenberg viruses), Reoviridae (biting midges-borne African horse sickness, Kasba, bluetongue, epizootic hemorrhagic disease of deer, Ibaraki, equine encephalosis, Peruvian horse sickness, and Yunnan viruses), Rhabdoviridae (sandfly/mosquito-borne bovine ephemeral fever, vesicular stomatitis-Indiana, vesicular stomatitis-New Jersey, vesicular stomatitis-Alagoas, and Coccal viruses), Orthomyxoviridae (tick-borne Thogoto virus), and Asfarviridae (tick-borne African swine fever virus). They are transmitted to animals by five groups of hematophagous arthropods of the subphyllum Chelicerata (order Acarina, families Ixodidae and Argasidae-ticks) or members of the class Insecta: mosquitoes (family Culicidae); biting midges (family Ceratopogonidae); sandflies (subfamily Phlebotominae); and cimicid bugs (family Cimicidae). Arboviral diseases in endotherm animals may therefore be classified as: tick

  9. QRAS-the quantitative risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an overview of QRAS, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System. QRAS is a PC-based software tool for conducting Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs), which was developed to address risk analysis needs held by NASA. QRAS is, however, applicable in a wide range of industries. The philosophy behind the development of QRAS is to bridge communication and skill gaps between managers, engineers, and risk analysts by using representations of the risk model and analysis results that are easy to comprehend by each of those groups. For that purpose, event sequence diagrams (ESD) are being used as a replacement for event trees (ET) to model scenarios, and the quantification of events is possible through a set of quantification models familiar to engineers. An automated common cause failure (CCF) modeling tool further aids the risk modeling. QRAS applies BDD-based algorithms for the accurate and efficient computation of risk results. The paper presents QRAS' modeling and analysis capabilities. The performance of the underlying BDD algorithm is assessed and compared to that of another PRA software tool, using a case study extracted from the International Space Station PRA

  10. Risk assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waigmann E

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s remit in the risk assessment of GMOs is very broad encompassing genetically modified plants, microorganisms and animals and assessing their safety for humans, animals and the environment. The legal frame for GMOs is set by Directive 2001/18/EC on their release into the environment, and Regulation (EC No 1829/2003 on GM food and feed. The main focus of EFSA’s GMO Panel and GMO Unit lies in the evaluation of the scientific risk assessment of new applications for market authorisation of GMOs, and in the development of corresponding guidelines for the applicants. The EFSA GMO Panel has elaborated comprehensive guidance documents on GM plants, GM microorganisms and GM animals, as well as on specific aspects of risk assessment such as the selection of comparators. EFSA also provides special scientific advice upon request of the European Commission; examples are post-market environmental monitoring of GMOs, and consideration of potential risks of new plant breeding techniques. The GMO Panel regularly reviews its guidance documents in the light of experience gained with the evaluation of applications, technological progress in breeding technologies and scientific developments in the diverse areas of risk assessment.

  11. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. Plattner

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not

  12. RNA interference targets arbovirus replication in Culicoides cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnettler, Esther; Ratinier, Maxime; Watson, Mick; Shaw, Andrew E; McFarlane, Melanie; Varela, Mariana; Elliott, Richard M; Palmarini, Massimo; Kohl, Alain

    2013-03-01

    Arboviruses are transmitted to vertebrate hosts by biting arthropod vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and midges. These viruses replicate in both arthropods and vertebrates and are thus exposed to different antiviral responses in these organisms. RNA interference (RNAi) is a sequence-specific RNA degradation mechanism that has been shown to play a major role in the antiviral response against arboviruses in mosquitoes. Culicoides midges are important vectors of arboviruses, known to transmit pathogens of humans and livestock such as bluetongue virus (BTV) (Reoviridae), Oropouche virus (Bunyaviridae), and likely the recently discovered Schmallenberg virus (Bunyaviridae). In this study, we investigated whether Culicoides cells possess an antiviral RNAi response and whether this is effective against arboviruses, including those with double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) genomes, such as BTV. Using reporter gene-based assays, we established the presence of a functional RNAi response in Culicoides sonorensis-derived KC cells which is effective in inhibiting BTV infection. Sequencing of small RNAs from KC and Aedes aegypti-derived Aag2 cells infected with BTV or the unrelated Schmallenberg virus resulted in the production of virus-derived small interfering RNAs (viRNAs) of 21 nucleotides, similar to the viRNAs produced during arbovirus infections of mosquitoes. In addition, viRNA profiles strongly suggest that the BTV dsRNA genome is accessible to a Dicer-type nuclease. Thus, we show for the first time that midge cells target arbovirus replication by mounting an antiviral RNAi response mainly resembling that of other insect vectors of arboviruses.

  13. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  14. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  15. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  16. Clinical practice of risk assessment of sexual violence

    OpenAIRE

    Judge, Joseph Gerard

    2012-01-01

    Background: Risk assessment of sexual violence involves evidence based evaluation of the risks posed by sexual offenders. It informs risk management; the provision of treatment that reduces the risk of future sexual violence. Previous research has focused on assessment of the predictive accuracy of different risk assessment tools, as well as the identification of risk factors that are associated with recidivism. In contrast, the clinical practice of risk assessment is a research a...

  17. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  18. EPA's approach to assessment of radon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Environmental Protection Agency has assessed the potential lung cancer risk to the general population due to radon based on the Agency's general principles of risk assessment. This is the same approach that has been used to assess the impact on public health of other carcinogenic environmental pollutants. This paper describes the application of this approach to radon. This paper includes a description of the method used by the Agency to estimate that 20,000 lung cancer deaths per year may be related to radon exposure. Also presented are the weight-of-evidence for classifying radon as a known human carcinogen and the uncertainties associated with estimating risks from radon exposure. These reflect the extent of the underlying support and context for these estimates

  19. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    decisionmakers better decide on which risk assessment/analysis framework may be best suited for the specific risk decision at hand. Among other results, we find that while many of the assessed frameworks have their advantages along with limitations, most may require potentially lengthy decision-making processes...... of uncertainty, degree of precaution, inclusion of quantitative or qualitative data, inclusion of life-cycle perspective, iterative and/or adaptive, ensuring timely decision making, and degree of transparency. This analysis can ultimately assist scientists, government agencies, organizations, and other......Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...

  20. Risk assessment of biogas in kitchens

    OpenAIRE

    Leroux, Carole; Modelon, Hugues; Rousselle, Christophe; Bellenfant, Gaël; Ramalho, Olivier; Jaeg, Jean-Paul; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; Naja, Ghinwa M.

    2009-01-01

    The health risk associated with human exposure to pollutants while using biogas for cooking was assessed following the methodology described by the US - National Research Council. Information of hazardous compounds and compositions of several biogas types were extracted from scientific literature. Compositions were dependent on the biogas origin (production process). First, a quantitative approach was conducted to identify substances with a high health risk based on their Human Toxicity Value...

  1. A Risk Assessment Framework for Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Djemame, K.; Armstrong, D; Guitart, J; Macias, M.

    2014-01-01

    Cloud service providers offer access to their resources through formal Service Level Agreements (SLA), and need wellbalanced infrastructures so that they can maximise the Quality of Service (QoS) they offer and minimise the number of SLA violations. This paper focuses on a specific aspect of risk assesment as applied in cloud computing: methods within a framework that can be used by cloud service providers and service consumers to assess risk during service deployment and operation. It descri...

  2. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    OpenAIRE

    Gary Vinyard; Jennifer Nielsen; C. Richard Tracy; Mary Peacock; Jason Dunham

    1999-01-01

    Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide informatio...

  3. Concepts of modern risk assessment and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbin, S B

    1994-01-01

    An emerging and increasingly complex array of environmental health concerns face dental practitioners in both the private and public sectors. These concerns are challenging and possibly threatening the traditionally inviolable dentist-patient relationship. Regulatory bodies, health risk experts, attorneys, and enthusiastic media are inserting themselves into the process. Essential assets for "successful" dental practitioners include enhanced expertise in basic science and technology, including the area of risk assessment, and development of broadened perspectives and skills for communicating with patients and the public.

  4. Current practice in tailings ponds risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Pytel, Witold

    2010-01-01

    Current practice for risk assessment posed by surface tailings/waste storage facilities is presented. This involves current legislation and regulations applied in EU countries and over the world and the basics concerned with tailings impoundments design as well. It was proved that a current activity at the existing tailings impoundment structures is presently confined rather to field measurements, monitoring and surveillance understood as a basic source for a “real time risk assessment”.

  5. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders. PMID:26781555

  6. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  7. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  8. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...

  9. Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

    1991-05-01

    Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

  10. Assessing bankruptcy risk for Romanian metallurgical companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.N. Borlea

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper it propose to evaluate the bankruptcy risk of the companies which operate within the Romanian metallurgy industry, over the period 2001-2012, highlighting the impact of financial crisis on this sector. The bankruptcy risk assessing by Altman Model gives us a pessimistic view of the Romanian metallurgical industry. A little more optimistic perspective on the risk of bankruptcy in Romanian metallurgy is provided by the Conan Holder Model according to which the best two Romanian metallurgical companies traded at BSE (ALR and ART face a low risk of bankruptcy. According to this model the financial crisis seems to have affected the first two Romanian metallurgical companies only in 2009, then in the following years the bankruptcy risk degrease, achieving satisfactory levels.

  11. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC......The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...

  12. Essays on financial forecasting and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Πλαστήρα, Σωτηρία Ν.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis aims at investigating the performance of empirical risk factors in financial forecasting and their assessment with respect to the associated risk. The thesis consists of four essays. The first essay focuses on whether the empirical HML and SMB risk factors, along with the long-term reversal and the momentum factors exhibit both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the U.S. stock returns, compared to the performance of the most widely used financial variables. Our fi...

  13. IT Risk Assessment: Developing and defining the IT Risk Assessment Process Framework in the case company

    OpenAIRE

    Damonte, Ronnie

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to define the Information Technology risk assessment process framework for an international Finnish firm belonging to a major IT corporation. The study was motivated by the fact that, in the case company, due to the lack of a common defined process for IT risk assessment, it was challenging to correctly evaluate and compare the relevancy on each risk. As a consequence, potentially misleading and inconsistent information on the impact and related importance of I...

  14. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  15. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  16. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  17. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  18. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  19. New risk assessment tools in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraker, H. de; Douwes, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper an introduction to and description of the risk assessment tools that are freely available for companies in The Netherlands is given. It is explained in what way the tools can and should be used and how the level I checklist for physical load and the level II instruments are related. Th

  20. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  1. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  2. Risk assessment for one-counter threads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Ponse; M.B. van der Zwaag

    2008-01-01

    Threads as contained in a thread algebra are used for the modeling of sequential program behavior. A thread that may use a counter to control its execution is called a ‘one-counter thread’. In this paper the decidability of risk assessment (a certain form of action forecasting) for one-counter threa

  3. Housing conditions in calves welfare risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Relić Renata R.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows results of calf welfare risk assessment at intensive breeding farms. Assessment has been conducted on the basis of housing conditions which can have negative influence on welfare of cattle, especially in calf category considering their needs. According to analysis results very good housing conditions were confirmed in open shed rearing stall (C and closed type rearing stall without feeding yard (A, whilst in closed rearing stall with feeding yard (B housing conditions were estimated as acceptable. Based on collected data about housing conditions, we have estimated that the least risk for calf welfare is at C farm, slightly higher at A farm and the highest at B farm. Data about housing conditions and analysis of potential welfare risk factors show possible causes for already present health and other problems with animals, which also can reappear in future. However for that reason, applying described methods can increase rearing conditions and increase production at cattle farms.

  4. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  5. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  6. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  7. Emerging arboviruses and public health challenges in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima-Camara, Tamara Nunes

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Environmental modification by anthropogenic actions, disordered urban growth, globalization of international exchange and climate change are some factors that help the emergence and dissemination of human infectious diseases transmitted by vectors. This review discusses the recent entry of three arboviruses in Brazil: Chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus, focusing on the challenges for the Country’s public health. The Brazilian population is exposed to infections caused by these three arboviruses widely distributed on the national territory and associated with humans. Without effective vaccine and specific treatment, the maintainance and integration of a continuos entomological and epidemiological surveillance are important so we can set methods to control and prevent these arboviruses in the Country. PMID:27355468

  8. Emerging arboviruses and public health challenges in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara Nunes Lima-Camara

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Environmental modification by anthropogenic actions, disordered urban growth, globalization of international exchange and climate change are some factors that help the emergence and dissemination of human infectious diseases transmitted by vectors. This review discusses the recent entry of three arboviruses in Brazil: Chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus, focusing on the challenges for the Country’s public health. The Brazilian population is exposed to infections caused by these three arboviruses widely distributed on the national territory and associated with humans. Without effective vaccine and specific treatment, the maintainance and integration of a continuos entomological and epidemiological surveillance are important so we can set methods to control and prevent these arboviruses in the Country.

  9. The Insect Microbiome Modulates Vector Competence for Arboviruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natapong Jupatanakul

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Diseases caused by arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses, such as Dengue, West Nile, and Chikungunya, constitute a major global health burden and are increasing in incidence and geographic range. The natural microbiota of insect vectors influences various aspects of host biology, such as nutrition, reproduction, metabolism, and immunity, and recent studies have highlighted the ability of insect-associated bacteria to reduce vector competence for arboviruses and other pathogens. This reduction can occur through mechanisms, such as immune response activation, resource competition, or the production of anti-viral molecules. Studying the interactions between insect vectors and their microbiota is an important step toward developing alternative strategies for arbovirus transmission control.

  10. Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspray, Terry J

    2015-02-01

    More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD.

  11. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  12. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R. [Laboratorio de Toxicologia Experimental, Santa Fe (Argentina)

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  13. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  14. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  15. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  16. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  17. Towards a nanospecific approach for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekkers, Susan; Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Vandebriel, Rob J; Micheletti, Christian; Cabellos, Joan; Janer, Gemma; Fuentes, Natalia; Vázquez-Campos, Socorro; Borges, Teresa; Silva, Maria João; Prina-Mello, Adriele; Movia, Dania; Nesslany, Fabrice; Ribeiro, Ana R; Leite, Paulo Emílio; Groenewold, Monique; Cassee, Flemming R; Sips, Adrienne J A M; Dijkzeul, Aart; van Teunenbroek, Tom; Wijnhoven, Susan W P

    2016-10-01

    In the current paper, a new strategy for risk assessment of nanomaterials is described, which builds upon previous project outcomes and is developed within the FP7 NANoREG project. NANoREG has the aim to develop, for the long term, new testing strategies adapted to a high number of nanomaterials where many factors can affect their environmental and health impact. In the proposed risk assessment strategy, approaches for (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs), grouping and read-across are integrated and expanded to guide the user how to prioritise those nanomaterial applications that may lead to high risks for human health. Furthermore, those aspects of exposure, kinetics and hazard assessment that are most likely to be influenced by the nanospecific properties of the material under assessment are identified. These aspects are summarised in six elements, which play a key role in the strategy: exposure potential, dissolution, nanomaterial transformation, accumulation, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity. With the current approach it is possible to identify those situations where the use of nanospecific grouping, read-across and (Q)SAR tools is likely to become feasible in the future, and to point towards the generation of the type of data that is needed for scientific justification, which may lead to regulatory acceptance of nanospecific applications of these tools. PMID:27255696

  18. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  19. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  20. Risk Assessment Tool for Estimating Your 10-Year Risk of Having a Heart Attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Education Programs Continuing Education Opportunities Health Observances Risk Assessment Tool for Estimating Your 10-year Risk of Having a Heart Attack The risk assessment tool below uses information from the Framingham Heart ...

  1. Cardiovascular risk assessment in Italy: the CUORE Project risk score and risk chart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Giampaoli

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Aim: Risk charts and risk score, based on the global absolute risk, are key tools for CVD risk assessment. When applied to the population from which they derive, they provide the best estimate of CVD risk. That is why the CUORE Project has among its objectives the assessment of the Italian population’s cardiovascular risk, identifying the model for the prediction of coronary and cerebrovascular events in 10 years.

    Methods: Data fromdifferent cohorts enrolled in the North, Centre and South of Italy between the 1980s and the 1990s were used. From the 7,056 men and 12,574 women aged 35-69 years, free of cardiovascular disease at base-line and followed up for a mean time of 10 years for total and cause-specific mortality and non fatal cerebrovascular and coronary events, 894 major cardiovascular events (596 coronary and 298 cerebrovascular were identified and validated. To assess 10-year cardiovascular risk, the risk score and risk chart were developed for men and women separately, considering the first major coronary or cerebrovascular event as the endpoint.

    Results: The risk score is applied tomen andwomen aged 35-69 years and includes age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, smoking habit, diabetes and hypertension treatment using continuous values when possible. The risk chart is applied to persons aged 40-69 years and includes the same risk factors as risk score, except for HDL-cholesterol and hypertension treatment, and uses categorical values for all variables.

    Conclusions: The risk score and risk chart are easy-to-use tools which enable general practitioners and specialists to achieve an objective evaluation of the absolute global cardiovascular risk of middle-aged persons in primary prevention.

  2. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  3. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  4. Cardiovascular risk assessment in women - an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, P; Webb, C M; de Villiers, T J; Stevenson, J C; Panay, N; Baber, R J

    2016-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in postmenopausal women. Although it is a disease of aging, vascular disease initiates much earlier in life. Thus, there is a need to be aware of the potential to prevent the development of the disease from an early age and continue this surveillance throughout life. The menopausal period and early menopause present an ideal opportunity to assess cardiovascular risk and plan accordingly. Generally in this period, women will be seen by primary health-care professionals and non-cardiovascular specialists. This review addresses female-specific risk factors that may contribute to the potential development of cardiovascular disease. It is important for all health-care professionals dealing with women in midlife and beyond to be cognisant of these risk factors and to initiate female-specific preventative measures or to refer to a cardiovascular specialist. PMID:27327421

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment of disassembly procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-11-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the use of Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. PRA is a methodology for (i) identifying combinations of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents (ii) estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and (iii) estimating the consequences of each accident. Specifically the study focused on evaluating the risks associated with dissembling a hazardous assembly. The PRA for the operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of establishing a risk-consequence goal for DOE operations.

  6. Assessing the risk of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current concern with diminishing supplies of non-renewable energy has brought into clearer focus the debate on the future of nuclear energy. Application of the risk assessment process to the biological effects of radiation is considered worthwhile so that the nature and order of the hazards entailed can be appreciated in the total context of the problem. The derivation of regulations and the process of cost-risk-benefit analysis are also discussed. In view of the widespread public concern and, on occasion, apprehension about the development of nuclear energy it has been thought useful to tabulate the elements of this concern so as to gain a fuller understanding of the manner in which the public perceives and weighs risks. (author)

  7. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  8. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  9. Moving Forward in Human Cancer Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Paules, Richard S.; Aubrecht, Jiri; Corvi, Raffaella; Garthoff, Bernward; Kleinjans, Jos C.

    2010-01-01

    Background The current safety paradigm for assessing carcinogenic properties of drugs, cosmetics, industrial chemicals, and environmental exposures relies mainly on in vitro genotoxicity testing followed by 2-year rodent bioassays. This testing battery is extremely sensitive but has low specificity. Furthermore, rodent bioassays are associated with high costs, high animal burden, and limited predictive value for human risks. Objectives We provide a response to a growing appeal for a paradigm ...

  10. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of various aspects of mergers and acquisition transactions in the petroleum industry were presented. Incentives to mergers and acquisitions were reviewed and discussed, among them value opportunity, critical size, incremental tax pools, financial distress, shareholder dissatisfaction, strategic infrastructure position, complementary assets, and undeveloped land inventory. Current trends in mergers and acquisitions were highlighted. An industry checklist for risk assessments discussing financial position, engineering forecasts, and taxation was also included

  11. Risk assessment of tailings facility dam failure

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Nikolova, Marija; Mirakovski, Dejan; Stefanova, Violeta

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the consequences of tailings facility dam failure and therefore the needs for its risk assessment. Tailings are fine-grained wastes of the mining industry, output as slurries, due to mixing with water during mineral processing. Tailings dams vary a lot as it is affected by: tailings characteristics and mill output, site characteristics as: topography, hydrology, geology, groundwater, seismicity and available material and disposal methods. The talings which accumulat...

  12. Selection of Dispersivity in Groundwater Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武晓峰; 唐杰

    2004-01-01

    The Domenico model is used in combination with ASTM E 1739 in a Tier 2 risk assessment of chlorinated organic solvents contaminated groundwater sites to predict potential contaminant concentration in groundwater down-gradient from the point of exposure (POE). A knowledge of the dispersivity parameters is necessary for carrying out this calculation. A constant longitudinal dispersivity of 10 m is often used in analytical and numerical calculation. However, because of the scale effect of dispersion, two other main approaches are currently often used. From the viewpoint of conservative principle in risk assessment, it is necessary to determine which dispersivity data will give a higher predicted concentration, corresponding to a more conservative risk calculation. Generally, it is considered that a smaller dispersivity leads to a higher predicted concentration. This assumption is correct when dispersion is the only natural attenuation factor. However, degradation of commonly encountered chlorinated organic solvents in environment under natural condition has been widely reported. Calculations given in this paper of several representative cases show that a general consideration of the influence of dispersivity on concentration prediction is not always correct when a degradation term is included in the calculation. To give a conservative risk calculation, the scale effect of dispersion is considered. Calculations also show that the dispersivity parameters need to be determined by considering the POE distance from the source, the groundwater velocity, and the degradation rate of the contaminant.

  13. Risk Assessment for Tuzla Naval Base Breakwater

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Can Elmar BALAS

    2003-01-01

    In the applications of reliability-based risk assessment methodology in Turkey, only wave characteristics, tidal range, storm surge, wave set-up, and structural system parameters were included in the past. Tsunami risk was not considered as a major design parameter and thus, was not included in the computation. After a strong earthquake (Mw=7.4) occurred near the town of Golcuk, Izmit Bay, Western Turkey at 00:01 GMT on August 17, 1999, chaotic water movements were observed on the coast of the Marmara Sea. Rubble mound breakwaters demonstrated very little damage, as predicted by the reliability-based risk assessment model developed in this study for the Tuzla Naval Base. For determination of the probability of occurrence under design conditions, which is a function of storm waves, tidal range, storm surge, and tsunami height, the Monte Carlo simulation was interrelated with the βⅡ method. For the Tuzla Naval Base main breakwater, tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves, however, in places with great seismic activity, tsunami risk can be significant depending on the probability of occurrence and the magnitude of the tsunami.

  14. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  15. Detection of arboviruses and other micro-organisms in experimentally infected mosquitoes using massively parallel sequencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall-Mendelin, Sonja; Allcock, Richard; Kresoje, Nina; van den Hurk, Andrew F; Warrilow, David

    2013-01-01

    Human disease incidence attributed to arbovirus infection is increasing throughout the world, with effective control interventions limited by issues of sustainability, insecticide resistance and the lack of effective vaccines. Several promising control strategies are currently under development, such as the release of mosquitoes trans-infected with virus-blocking Wolbachia bacteria. Implementation of any control program is dependent on effective virus surveillance and a thorough understanding of virus-vector interactions. Massively parallel sequencing has enormous potential for providing comprehensive genomic information that can be used to assess many aspects of arbovirus ecology, as well as to evaluate novel control strategies. To demonstrate proof-of-principle, we analyzed Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus experimentally infected with dengue, yellow fever or chikungunya viruses. Random amplification was used to prepare sufficient template for sequencing on the Personal Genome Machine. Viral sequences were present in all infected mosquitoes. In addition, in most cases, we were also able to identify the mosquito species and mosquito micro-organisms, including the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. Importantly, naturally occurring Wolbachia strains could be differentiated from strains that had been trans-infected into the mosquito. The method allowed us to assemble near full-length viral genomes and detect other micro-organisms without prior sequence knowledge, in a single reaction. This is a step toward the application of massively parallel sequencing as an arbovirus surveillance tool. It has the potential to provide insight into virus transmission dynamics, and has applicability to the post-release monitoring of Wolbachia in mosquito populations.

  16. Detection of arboviruses and other micro-organisms in experimentally infected mosquitoes using massively parallel sequencing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Hall-Mendelin

    Full Text Available Human disease incidence attributed to arbovirus infection is increasing throughout the world, with effective control interventions limited by issues of sustainability, insecticide resistance and the lack of effective vaccines. Several promising control strategies are currently under development, such as the release of mosquitoes trans-infected with virus-blocking Wolbachia bacteria. Implementation of any control program is dependent on effective virus surveillance and a thorough understanding of virus-vector interactions. Massively parallel sequencing has enormous potential for providing comprehensive genomic information that can be used to assess many aspects of arbovirus ecology, as well as to evaluate novel control strategies. To demonstrate proof-of-principle, we analyzed Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus experimentally infected with dengue, yellow fever or chikungunya viruses. Random amplification was used to prepare sufficient template for sequencing on the Personal Genome Machine. Viral sequences were present in all infected mosquitoes. In addition, in most cases, we were also able to identify the mosquito species and mosquito micro-organisms, including the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. Importantly, naturally occurring Wolbachia strains could be differentiated from strains that had been trans-infected into the mosquito. The method allowed us to assemble near full-length viral genomes and detect other micro-organisms without prior sequence knowledge, in a single reaction. This is a step toward the application of massively parallel sequencing as an arbovirus surveillance tool. It has the potential to provide insight into virus transmission dynamics, and has applicability to the post-release monitoring of Wolbachia in mosquito populations.

  17. Collection & Processing of Medically Important Arthropods for Arbovirus Isolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudia, W. Daniel; Chamberlain, Roy W.

    The methods given for collecting, preserving, and processing mosquitoes and other archropods for isolation of arboviruses are those used by the National Communicable Disease Center. Techniques of collecting mosquitoes as they bite, using light or bait traps, and from their daytime resting sites are described and illustrated. Details of subsequent…

  18. Collection & Processing of Vertebrate Specimens for Arbovirus Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudia, W. Daniel; And Others

    Described are techniques used by the National Communicable Disease Center in obtaining blood and tissues from man and other vertebrates for arbovirus isolation and antibody studies. Also included are techniques for capturing and handling vertebrates; banding and marking; restraining and bleeding; storing of specimens to preserve antibody and…

  19. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE REGULATED WATERCOURSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Bondar-Nowakowska

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecological risk has not been identified well enough for the designers and contractors to take any actions for its limitation. It results from the lack of the basis formed to assess its level objectively. The aim of this study was to determine the standards useful in the evaluation of the ecological risk for aquatic plants in rivers, where it is planned to conduct regulatory works. The basis for the analysis were the results of the study performed in 2008–2014 in unmodified and transformed lowland watercourses in Lower Silesia. 41 study sections were analysed in 11 watercourses. 30 sections were located in regulated watercourses, while 11 were in unmodified streams. The research included vascular aquatic plants identification and the degree of the bottom coverage by these plants. As a result of regulatory works qualitative and quantitative changes in aquatic plants communities were observed. The analysis of these changes concerning the range and conditions of works conduction enabled assigning measures to the factors of the considered risk. It served as a basis for describing the risk register and the matrix of risk. The study demonstrated that the most important threats resulting from the river regulation from the point of view of environmental protection are complete shading of watercourse bed, and in some cases, bed widening and deepening, embankments slope of 1: 1, 1: 0, embankments protection with stone material or their concreting.

  20. Assessing mixtures risks for cleanup and stewardship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for addressing contamination from past research, production, and disposal activities at over 100 sites and facilities across the country. Use of emerging science to assess risks for these facilities is the key to defining appropriate solutions. Safely managing contamination is a priority to protect workers in the near term, and sustained protection is a priority for local communities over the long term. The Department conducts its environmental management program with input from a number of groups who have expressed concern about the safety of DOE sites over time and the possible conversion of some lands to other uses. In general, past facility activities and disposal operations have contaminated about 10% of the total collective area of DOE sites while surrounding lands have served as buffer zones. Portions of several sites have been released for other uses, such as wildlife preserves. Soil, surface water, and groundwater have been contaminated in most instances, and on-site waste disposal is targeted for many sites. Wastes and contamination that will remain in the environment are at the heart of ongoing future use and long-term management deliberations. For this reason, oversight groups and local citizens are scrutinizing the risk assessments being conducted to support decisions on final cleanup and long-term stewardship. Contaminants exist throughout the world not as individual chemicals but as combinations. The standard risk assessment process broadly applied to support cleanup decisions for contaminated sites is based on single-chemical analyses that do not consider joint toxicity. That is, possible nonadditive effects (commonly termed synergistic or antagonistic) of multiple exposures to multiple chemicals are not generally addressed. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been developing a process to assess risks of multiple chemicals (EPA 1990, 2000), but it is not yet being applied to address

  1. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, N.; Qiu, Y.; Gan, H.; Niu, C.; Liu, J.; Gan, Y.; Zhou, N.

    2014-09-01

    Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG). The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  2. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  3. Quantitative risk assessment of durable glass fibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayerweather, William E; Eastes, Walter; Cereghini, Francesco; Hadley, John G

    2002-06-01

    This article presents a quantitative risk assessment for the theoretical lifetime cancer risk from the manufacture and use of relatively durable synthetic glass fibers. More specifically, we estimate levels of exposure to respirable fibers or fiberlike structures of E-glass and C-glass that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, pose a theoretical lifetime cancer risk of not more than 1 per 100,000. For comparability with other risk assessments we define these levels as nonsignificant exposures. Nonsignificant exposure levels are estimated from (a) the Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E-glass microfibers, and (b) the Research Consulting Company (RCC) chronic inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers (RCF). Best estimates of nonsignificant E-glass exposure exceed 0.05-0.13 fibers (or shards) per cubic centimeter (cm3) when calculated from the multistage nonthreshold model. Best estimates of nonsignificant C-glass exposure exceed 0.27-0.6 fibers/cm3. Estimates of nonsignificant exposure increase markedly for E- and C-glass when non-linear models are applied and rapidly exceed 1 fiber/cm3. Controlling durable fiber exposures to an 8-h time-weighted average of 0.05 fibers/cm3 will assure that the additional theoretical lifetime risk from working lifetime exposures to these durable fibers or shards is kept below the 1 per 100,000 level. Measured airborne exposures to respirable, durable glass fibers (or shards) in glass fiber manufacturing and fabrication operations were compared with the nonsignificant exposure estimates described. Sampling results for B-sized respirable E-glass fibers at facilities that manufacture or fabricate small-diameter continuous-filament products, from those that manufacture respirable E-glass shards from PERG (process to efficiently recycle glass), from milled fiber operations, and from respirable C-glass shards from Flakeglass operations indicate very low median exposures of 0

  4. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  5. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  6. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  7. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  8. Risk Assessment in Advanced Engineering Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holický

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional methods for designing of civil engineering structures and other engineering systems are frequently based on the concept of target probability of failure. However, this fundamental quantity is usually specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, probabilistic design methods suffer from several deficiencies, including lack of consideration for accidental and other hazard situations and their consequences. Both of these extreme conditions are more and more frequently becoming causes of serious failures and other adverse events. Available experience clearly indicates that probabilistic design procedures may be efficiently supplemented by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account various consequences of unfavourable events. It is therefore anticipated that in addition to traditional probabilistic concepts the methods of advanced engineering design will also commonly include criteria for acceptable risks.

  9. MODEL OF ASSESSMENT OF MARKETING RISKS IN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    OpenAIRE

    Solntsev Serhiy O.; Ovchynnikova Anna V.

    2013-01-01

    The goal of the article is the study of theoretical and methodical grounds of assessing marketing risks when realising investment projects for increase of efficiency of making managerial decisions and minimisation of the level of marketing risks. In the result of the study the article offers to allocate the stage of assessment in the process of management, consisting of detection, analysis and assessment of marketing risks. Structurisation of methods of assessment of marketing risks allowed s...

  10. 77 FR 28406 - Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-14

    ... COMMISSION Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft... issuing for public comment a draft NUREG, NUREG-2125, ``Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment (SFTRA... safety assurance. In that assessment, the measure of safety was the risk of radiation doses to the...

  11. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... or national security as a result of the preliminary risk assessment, the candidate or the Provider... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14... CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment...

  12. Benefit - Risk Assessment of Vitamin D Supplementation

    OpenAIRE

    BISCHOFF-FERRARI, H.A.; Dawson-Hughes, B; Shao, A; HATHCOCK, J.; Giovannucci, E; Willett, W. C.

    2009-01-01

    Current intake recommendations of 200 to 600 IU vitamin D per day may be insufficient for important disease outcomes reduced by vitamin D. INTRODUCTION: This study assessed the benefit of higher-dose and higher achieved 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels [25(OH)D] versus any associated risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on double-blind randomized control trials (RCTs), eight for falls (n = 2426) and 12 for non-vertebral fractures (n = 42,279), there was a significant dose-response relationship between ...

  13. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  14. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  15. Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Mauritania: First Report on the Presence of the Arbovirus Mosquito Vector in Nouakchott.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mint Lekweiry, Khadijetou; Ould Ahmedou Salem, Mohamed Salem; Ould Brahim, Khyarhoum; Ould Lemrabott, Mohamed Aly; Brengues, Cécile; Faye, Ousmane; Simard, Frédéric; Ould Mohamed Salem Boukhary, Ali

    2015-07-01

    Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae) is a major vector of yellow fever, dengue, and chikungunya viruses throughout tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Although the southernmost part of Mauritania along the Senegal river has long been recognized at risk of yellow fever transmission, Aedes spp. mosquitoes had never been reported northwards in Mauritania. Here, we report the first observation of Aedes aegypti aegypti (L.) and Aedes (Ochlerotatus) caspius (Pallas, 1771) in the capital city, Nouakchott. We describe the development sites in which larvae of the two species were found, drawing attention to the risk for emergence of arbovirus transmission in the city.

  16. Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Assessment in the Caribbean

    OpenAIRE

    ARIAS CARBALLO, DIEGO; Laura, dos Reis

    2013-01-01

    A rapid agricultural supply chain risk assessment, recently developed by the World Bank, constitutes a useful tool for a system-wide approach to identify risks, risk exposure, the severity of potential loses, and options for risk management either by supply chain participants (individually or collectively) or by third parties (government). Supply chain risk management is the systematic pro...

  17. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  18. Risk Assessment Model for Mobile Malware

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Stanescu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The mobile technology is considered to be the fastest-developing IT security area. Only in the last year security threats around mobile devices have reached new heights in terms of both quality and quantity. The speed of this development has made possible several types of security attacks that, until recently, were only possible on computers. In terms of the most targeted mobile operating systems, Android continues to be the most vulnerable, although new ways of strengthening its security model were introduced by Google. The aim of this article is to provide a model for assessing the risk of mobile infection with malware, starting from a statistical analysis of the permissions required by each application installed into the mobile system. The software implementation of this model will use the Android operating system and in order to do so, we will start by analyzing its permission-based security architecture. Furthermore, based on statistical data regarding the most dangerous permissions, we build the risk assessment model and, to prove its efficiency, we scan some of the most popular apps and interpret the results. To this end, we offer an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of this permission-based model and we also state a short conclusion regarding model’s efficiency.

  19. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  20. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  1. Risk Management Assessment Systems: An Application to Islamic Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Habib

    2011-01-01

    Risk management is central in operations of financial institutions, both from business and regulatory perspectives. Risk management is not only about identifying and mitigating risks, but involves a strong risk management system that includes establishing appropriate risk management environment, maintaining an appropriate risk management process, and instituting adequate internal controls. This paper provides a measurable tool to assess the risk management framework in Islamic banks. The stru...

  2. Assessment and insurance risk of foreign economic activity: accounting aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Susyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on research approaches to risk positioning grounded classification of risks arising in foreign trade activity. Deals with issues of assessment and insurance risks expediency display your losses from them. To reduce the negative impact of risks the theoretical foundations of security and practical advice with his reflection in the system of accounts. Grounded algorithm to select the most suitable method of risk assessment and constructed flowchart automation choice method for assessing the risk of foreign trade. The expediency of development of self-insurance risks of foreign economic activity.

  3. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  4. Radiological endpoints relevant to ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Because of the potential risk from radiation due to the releases of radionuclides from anthropogenic activities, considerable research was performed to determine for humans the levels of dose received, their responses to the doses and mechanisms of action of radioactivity on living matter. More recently, there is an increased interest in the effects of radioactivity on non-human species. There are differences in approach between risk assessment for humans and ecosystems. For protection of humans, the focus is the individual and the endpoint of primary concern is cancer induction. For protection of ecosystems, the focus is on population stability and the endpoint of concern is reproductive success for organisms important ecologically and economically. For these organisms, information is needed on their responses to irradiation and the potential impact of the doses absorbed on their reproductive success. Considerable information is available on the effects of radiation on organisms from different phyla and types of ecosystems. Databases useful for assessing risk from exposures of populations to radioactivity are the effects of irradiation on mortality, fertility and sterility, the latter two of which are important components of reproductive success. Data on radiation effects on mortality are available both from acute and chronic irradiation. In relation to radiation effects, reproductive success for a given population is related to a number of characteristics of the species, including inherent radiosensitivity of reproductive tissues and early life stages, processes occurring during gametogenesis, reproductive strategy and exposure history. The available data on acute and chronic radiation doses is reviewed for invertebrates, fishes and mammals. The information reviewed indicates that wide ranges in responses with species can be expected. Parameters that most likely contribute to inherent radiosensitivity are discussed. (author)

  5. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  6. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  7. 78 FR 36787 - Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-19

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia... the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug Development Without...

  8. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-01-01

    Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process a...

  9. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  10. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  11. Microbiological risk assessment for safe food design & management

    OpenAIRE

    Vásquez, Andrés; Busschaert, Pieter; Geeraerd, Annemie

    2010-01-01

    An important element of microbiological risk analysis, is risk assessment; a process in which the dynamics of microbiological hazards in the food chain are identified and characterized, and the exposure of consumers to the particular hazards is estimated. The current focus of microbiological risk assessment studies is “how it can best be utilized in food safety management to understand the magnitude of prevailing risk regarding a pathogen/product combination, to design risk ...

  12. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment For Emergency Preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The importance of nuclear power plant PSA has grown up all over the world due to this incident. The main concern of this study is to develop a methodology to carry on an emergency preparedness evaluation and to set an exclusive area, or the emergency response area boundary in order to apply it to domestic reference plants. This study also focuses on evaluating the risk parameter of major nuclides through a sensitivity analysis and a safety assessment by calculating the population dose, early fatality, and cancer fatality rates. A methodology for an emergency preparedness, which can be applied to evaluate the damage of the radioactive release as well as to assess the safety of the accident scenario of a nuclear power plant, has been developed and applied for the reference plants in Korea. By applying a source term analysis, an exclusive zone based on the radioactive dose is obtained. And the results of the health effect assessment based on the release fraction of specific nuclides to public with an effective emergency response activity have been simulated. A methodology utilizing the Level 3 PSA with the actual emergency response activities has been developed and applied to typical nuclear accident situations. The plausible standard for performing an emergency plan is suggested and the valuable information regarding emergency preparedness has been produced in this study. For further works, the sensitivity study on important parameters will be performed to simulate the actual severe accident situations such as sheltering, evacuation, and emergency response activities

  13. Arbovirus infections in several Ontario mammals, 1975-1980.

    OpenAIRE

    Artsob, H; Spence, L; Th'ng, C; Lampotang, V; Johnston, D.; MacInnes, C; Matejka, F; Voigt, D; Watt, I

    1986-01-01

    Serological studies for arboviruses were conducted on 725 animal sera collected in 22 Ontario townships between 1975 and 1980 including 44 coyote (Canis latrans), 277 red fox (Vulpes vulpes), 192 raccoon (Procyon lotor) and 212 striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis). Hemagglutination inhibition antibodies to two flaviviruses, namely St. Louis encephalitis and Powassan were found in 50% of coyote, 47% of skunk, 26% of fox and 10% of raccoon sera. Similarly, hemagglutination inhibition antibodies to...

  14. Emerging arboviruses and public health challenges in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Tamara Nunes Lima-Camara

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Environmental modification by anthropogenic actions, disordered urban growth, globalization of international exchange and climate change are some factors that help the emergence and dissemination of human infectious diseases transmitted by vectors. This review discusses the recent entry of three arboviruses in Brazil: Chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus, focusing on the challenges for the Country’s public health. The Brazilian population is exposed to infections caused by these th...

  15. Enveloped virus-like particles as vaccines against pathogenic arboviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijlman, Gorben P

    2015-05-01

    Arthropod-borne arboviruses form a continuous threat to human and animal health, but few arboviral vaccines are currently available. Advances in expression technology for complex, enveloped virus-like particles (eVLPs) create new opportunities to develop potent vaccines against pathogenic arboviruses. In this short review, I highlight the successes and challenges in eVLP production for members of the three major arbovirus families: Flaviviridae (e.g., dengue, West Nile, Japanese encephalitis); Bunyaviridae (e.g., Rift Valley fever); and Togaviridae (e.g., chikungunya). The results from pre-clinical testing will be discussed as well as specific constraints to the large-scale manufacture and purification of eVLPs, which are complex assemblies of membranes and viral glycoproteins. Insect cells emerge as ideal substrates for correct arboviral glycoprotein folding and posttranslational modification to yield high quality eVLPs. Furthermore, baculovirus expression in insect cell culture is scalable and has a proven safety record in industrial human and veterinary vaccine manufacturing. In conclusion, eVLPs produced in insect cells using modern biotechnology have a realistic potential to be used in novel vaccines against arboviral diseases.

  16. Vertical transmission of arboviruses in mosquitoes: a historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lequime, Sebastian; Lambrechts, Louis

    2014-12-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are mainly transmitted horizontally among vertebrate hosts by blood-feeding invertebrate vectors, but can also be transmitted vertically in the vector from an infected female to its offspring. Vertical transmission (VT) is considered a possible mechanism for the persistence of arboviruses during periods unfavorable for horizontal transmission, but the extent and epidemiological significance of this phenomenon have remained controversial. To help resolve this question, we reviewed over a century of published literature on VT to analyze historical trends of scientific investigations on experimental and natural occurrence of VT in mosquitoes. Our synthesis highlights the influence of major events of public health significance in arbovirology on the number of VT publications. Epidemiological landmarks such as emergence events have significantly stimulated VT research. Our analysis also reveals the association between the evolution of virological assays and the probability of VT detection. Increased sensitivity and higher-throughput of modern laboratory assays resulted in enhanced VT detection. In general, VT contribution to arbovirus persistence is likely modest because vertically infected mosquitoes are rarely observed in nature. Taken together, however, our results call for caution when interpreting VT studies because their conclusions are context- and method-dependent.

  17. Enveloped virus-like particles as vaccines against pathogenic arboviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijlman, Gorben P

    2015-05-01

    Arthropod-borne arboviruses form a continuous threat to human and animal health, but few arboviral vaccines are currently available. Advances in expression technology for complex, enveloped virus-like particles (eVLPs) create new opportunities to develop potent vaccines against pathogenic arboviruses. In this short review, I highlight the successes and challenges in eVLP production for members of the three major arbovirus families: Flaviviridae (e.g., dengue, West Nile, Japanese encephalitis); Bunyaviridae (e.g., Rift Valley fever); and Togaviridae (e.g., chikungunya). The results from pre-clinical testing will be discussed as well as specific constraints to the large-scale manufacture and purification of eVLPs, which are complex assemblies of membranes and viral glycoproteins. Insect cells emerge as ideal substrates for correct arboviral glycoprotein folding and posttranslational modification to yield high quality eVLPs. Furthermore, baculovirus expression in insect cell culture is scalable and has a proven safety record in industrial human and veterinary vaccine manufacturing. In conclusion, eVLPs produced in insect cells using modern biotechnology have a realistic potential to be used in novel vaccines against arboviral diseases. PMID:25692281

  18. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2014-01-01

    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  19. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  20. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi [Nuclear Science Programme, School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia)

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  1. Risk assessment of malicious biocontamination of food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elad, Daniel

    2005-06-01

    Throughout the last decades of the 20th century, the biological threat evolved from primarily a government-controlled weapon to a tool of terrorism. One of the consequences of this trend is the near impossibility of foreseeing when and how an act of bioterrorism will occur. The suitability of food products for such an act stems from the multitude of microorganisms that may be used for contamination and the vulnerability of the products during and after processing. Tests that would enable the detection of a large variety of microorganisms quickly, reliably, and economically should also provide satisfactory means to prevent acts of malicious biocontamination of food products. Until such means become available, a priority-based approach to the problem is probably the most practical. Priorities should be determined based on a systematic risk assessment to define the relative likelihood of a certain microorganism being used in an act of malicious food contamination. Criteria to be evaluated are availability, weaponization processes, delivery of an effective dose, probability of early detection, and the microorganism's resistance to the conditions to which it will be exposed. Because the results of such an assessment may vary according to prevailing conditions, the assessment must be based on the existing circumstances. The results of the assessment should then be applied to the various procedures of food processing, which should further reduce the number of potential microbial threats. Existing methods of screening food for contaminating microorganisms and existing food safety and security procedures such as hazard analysis and critical control point programs may have to be modified to become suitable for the detection of acts of bioterrorism.

  2. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  3. Risk assessment of tuberculosis in immunocompromised patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sester, Martina; van Leth, Frank; Bruchfeld, Judith;

    2014-01-01

    RATIONALE: In the absence of active tuberculosis, a positive tuberculin skin test (TST) or interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) result defines latent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, although test results may vary depending on immunodeficiency. OBJECTIVES: This study compared the performance...... of TST and IGRAs in five different groups of immunocompromised patients, and evaluated their ability to identify those at risk for development of tuberculosis. METHODS: Immunocompromised patients with HIV infection, chronic renal failure, rheumatoid arthritis, solid-organ or stem-cell transplantation......, and healthy control subjects were evaluated head-to-head by the TST, QuantiFERON-TB-Gold in-tube test (ELISA), and T-SPOT.TB test (enzyme-linked immunospot) at 17 centers in 11 European countries. Development of tuberculosis was assessed during follow-up. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Frequencies of positive...

  4. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  5. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  6. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment. PMID:27177823

  7. Evolutionary Consequences for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gochfeld, Michael; Burger, Joanna

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the use of the human health risk assessment model as a basis for developing ecological risk assessment (ERA). For ERA, risk to individuals is less important than the survival of the population, with the exception of endangered species. Suggests that ERA take into account the relative reproductive value of the potentially impacted…

  8. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  9. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crevel, R.W.R.; Baumert, J.L.; Baka, A.; Houben, G.F.; Knulst, A.C.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Luccioli, S.; Taylor, S.L.; Madsen, C.B.

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessment

  10. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  11. Population-scale assessment endpoints in ecological risk assessment. Part 1: Reflections of stakeholder values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G

    2006-01-01

    The selection of appropriate assessment endpoints is a basic element of an ecological risk assessment, especially at regional or watershed scales. Because ecological services often are tied to specific species, the risk to populations is a critical endpoint and feature of ecological risk assessments. The first item is a discussion of the replacement of population-level risk assessment with the construct of a population-scale assessment endpoint. Next, the criteria that are currently used for assessment endpoints are reviewed and evaluated for utility in an ecological risk assessment. Following this examination, assessment endpoints from a number of regional-scale ecological risk assessments are compared. The outcome of this evaluation is that population-scale assessment endpoints are important expressions of the valued components of ecological structures. Finally, a few recommendations for the selection of assessment endpoints at a population scale are listed. PMID:16640323

  12. Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

    2016-07-27

    Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence. PMID:27461329

  13. Environmental risk assessment: an Australian perspective. Supervising Scientist Report 102

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Environmental risk assessment can be used as a strategic tool to set environmental priorities and as a tactical tool to set environmental standards. This report is designed to inform Australian environmental managers about the techniques and applications of environmental risk assessment and to familiarize risk analysts with some of the issues that are of concern to environmental managers. The use of risk assessment is illustrated by applying its techniques to five case studies which include: risk from chemicals and from contaminated sites; risk to people and to the natural environment from development, such as uranium mining; climate change; and risk associated with political decision-making. Then, by considering Australian and overseas practice, a generic framework is presented within which environmental risk assessment in Australia can be undertaken, and possible methods of implementation are discussed. refs., 38 figs

  14. Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena;

    2016-01-01

    Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans...

  15. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  16. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ''baseline'' risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site

  17. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  18. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.;

    2011-01-01

    the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... Panel and has been conceived as an enhancement of the relevant parts of the “Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA”. Emphasizing the importance of assessing the consequences on both the structural...... and for ecosystem services in the current area of invasion and in the risk assessment area. To ensure the consistency and transparency of the assessment, a rating system has also been developed based on a probabilistic approach with an evaluation of the degree of uncertainty. Finally, an overview of the available...

  19. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  20. A framework for risk assessment on lean production implementation

    OpenAIRE

    Giuliano Almeida Marodin; Tarcísio Abreu Saurin; Diego de Castro Fettermann

    2014-01-01

    The organizational and technical complexity of implementing the lean principles and practices can become an extensively time consuming journey with few benefits. We argue that risk assessment can aid on the understanding and management of the major difficulties on the Lean production implementation (LPI). Thus, this paper proposes a framework for risk assessment on the LPI process. The literature review permitted to adapt the risk assessment steps to the characteristics of the LPI and develop...

  1. Cancer Risk Assessment for the Primary Care Physician

    OpenAIRE

    Korde, Larissa A; Gadalla, Shahinaz M.

    2009-01-01

    Cancer is the second leading cause of death in the United States. Cancer risk assessment can be divided into two major categories: assessment of familial or genetic risk and assessment of environmental factors that may be causally related to cancer. Identification of individuals with a suspected heritable cancer syndrome can lead to additional evaluation and to interventions that can substantially decrease cancer risk. Special attention should also be paid to potentially modifiable cancer ris...

  2. Risk Assessment of Critical Communication Infrastructure in Railways in Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Johnsen, Stig O.; Veen, Mona

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses the significant findings of a risk assessment of infrastructure used in emergency communication by railways in Norway. The initial risk assessment was performed in 2008 and we have reviewed the results in 2010, documenting mitigating actions and their effect. The development of safety and security culture has also been evaluated. The risk assessment was based on a socio-technical approach, which considers technical, organizational and human factors. Action research was us...

  3. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamel, D.R. [Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  4. Risk Assessment Model and Supply Chain Risk Catalog

    OpenAIRE

    Borut Jereb; Tina Cvahte; Bojan Rosi

    2011-01-01

    By managing risk on the level of the supply chain we gain insight of all potential threats to all organizations involved in the chain as well as to the supply chain itself, especially to the logistics resources: flow of goods, services and information; logistics infrastructure and suprastructure; and people. Supply chain risk management should represent a crucial activity in every organization. As there is currently no standard specifically aimed at holistic supply chain risk management, we p...

  5. Pesticide risk assessment in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ,000 products, and implementing other aspects of the statute, EPA employs about 900 people. Unlike the approval process and actions to cancel pesticides in some countries, in the U.S. they are generally much more transparent. The need for specific test guidelines and the nature of the protocols are debated in the scientific community. Test data adequacy is evaluated according to objective criteria, and study findings are reviewed using standard evaluation procedures and risk assessment guidelines that have been through public comment. Agency risk concerns for a registered pesticide are vetted at a meeting of its Scientific Advisory Panel, a group of technical experts outside of government, where the potential risk case is reviewed and discussed. The meeting is open to the public with opportunity for input from industry, public interest groups, and other parties. Formal Agency regulatory proposals to cancel registered pesticides are published for public review and comment, and there may be several rounds of public involvement before a final decision is reached. Even after a regulatory decision has been made, and unless a settlement has been reached, the Agency is often sued by an environmental group or industry that questions the EPA position; in such situations, the case is then transferred to the court for deliberation. Risks are evaluated for a host of different effects by the pesticide program: acute and chronic, human health and ecological

  6. Risk assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Kristina D; Gerba, Charles P

    2009-01-01

    . 1986). Outbreaks have also been reported from exposure to P. aeruginosa in swimming pools and water slides. Although P. aeruginosa has a reputation for being resistant to disinfection, most studies show that it does not exhibit any marked resistance to the disinfectants used to treat drinking water such as chlorine, chloramines, ozone, or iodine. One author, however, did find it to be slightly more resistant to UV disinfection than most other bacteria (Wolfe 1990). Although much has been written about biofilms in the drinking water industry, very little has been reported regarding the role of P. aeruginosa in biofilms. Tap water appears to be a significant route of transmission in hospitals, from colonization of plumbing fixtures. It is still not clear if the colonization results from the water in the distribution system, or personnel use within the hospital. Infections and colonization can be significantly reduced by placement of filters on the water taps. The oral dose of P. aeruginosa required to establish colonization in a healthy subject is high (George et al. 1989a). During dose-response studies, even when subjects (mice or humans) were colonized via ingestion, there was no evidence of disease. P. aeruginosa administered by the aerosol route at levels of 10(7) cells did cause disease symptoms in mice, and was lethal in aerosolized doses of 10(9) cells. Aerosol dose-response studies have not been undertaken with human subjects. Human health risks associated with exposure to P. aeruginosa via drinking water ingestion were estimated using a four-step risk assessment approach. The risk of colonization from ingesting P. aeruginosa in drinking water is low. The risk is slightly higher if the subject is taking an antibiotic resisted by P. aeruginosa. The fact that individuals on ampicillin are more susceptible to Pseudomonas gastrointestinal infection probably results from suppression of normal intestinal flora, which would allow Pseudomonas to colonize. The process of

  7. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  8. Come Fly With Me : Integration of travel medicine and arbovirus surveillance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N.B. Cleton (Natalie)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThe goal of this thesis was to study how existing medical information and health structures can be used for arbovirus surveillance in the Netherlands. To achieve this, we combined and analysed all routine diagnostic data for Dutch travellers for suitability in arbovirus surveillance.

  9. Tier 1 Ecological Risk Assessment of a Contaminated Rail Corridor

    OpenAIRE

    Steer, Scott

    2004-01-01

    A screening level ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for a contaminated rail corridor in British Columbia. The purpose of the ERA was to demonstrate the utility of British Columbia Tier 1 ERA methodology for identifying contaminated sites with unacceptable ecological risks requiring remediation andor risk management. The methodology applies a weight of evidence approach to characterize ecological risks with risk quotients and site observations serving as the two lines of evidence....

  10. THE ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE OF THE OPERATIONAL RISK EVENTS

    OpenAIRE

    Iulia Iuga

    2009-01-01

    A credit institution must establish a management framework of the operational risk.This framework must cover the appetite and tolerance to the operational risk of a credit institution,in accordance with the management policies of this risk, including the measure and method inwhich the operational risk is transferred outside the credit institution.The management framework of the operational risk should include policies and processes for theidentification, assessment, monitoring and control/dim...

  11. Risk assessment and management in energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nine case studies have been dealt with within the IAEA international coordinated research program ''Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems'', viz.: 1. Reducing radium concentration in uranium mine waste waters; 2. Reducing tritium concentration in nuclear power plant liquid effluents; 3. Reducing radiation exposure of maintenance personnel in nuclear power plants; 4. Reducing the incidence of injuries in power generation; 5. Reducing the radioactivity of gaseous effluents from nuclear power plants in normal operation; 6. Reducing SO2 exhalation; 7. Increasing safety of transport jobs in the nuclear fuel cycle; 8. Reducing the radioactivity of solid wastes from coal-burning power plants; 9. Reducing the content of natural radionuclides in drinking water. Decision analysis is then used to assess the cost-effectiveness of the individual measures. Preconditions and results are summed up for case study No. 5 showing that increasing above 24 the number of sections in the system for reducing the radioactivity of nuclear power plant gaseous effluents in normal operation is not cost-effective. (J.B.). 2 figs., 2 tabs., 11 refs

  12. Photogrammetry in Experiments for Hydrogeological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazzetti, L.; Scaioni, M.; Feng, T.; Qiao, G.; Lu, P.; Tong, X.; Li, R.

    2013-01-01

    The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN) to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors) can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors), potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China).

  13. PHOTOGRAMMETRY IN EXPERIMENTS FOR HYDROGEOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Barazzetti

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors, potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China.

  14. Dangerousness and risk assessment: the state of the art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Arie; Rosca, Paula; Khawalled, Razak; Gruzniewski, Adrian; Grinshpoon, Alex

    2003-01-01

    Risk or dangerousness is an issue which burdens the minds of all mental health and law enforcement professionals. Researchers have attempted to define its extent and constituent elements and to predict and assess it. Risk assessment is a complex task, influenced by the interaction of many variables, such as previous pattern of violence, biological, sociological and psychological factors, divided into facilitating and inhibiting factors. In our paper we discuss the theoretical concepts linked with dangerousness prediction and assessment, and then review the "first" and "second" generations of literature on dangerousness and risk assessment, including the actuarial instruments. We then present the current trends in the field, concentrating on the correlation between dangerousness and mental disorders, dangerousness analysis and risk management, a wider concept including prevention, treatment and communication of risk. Although great progress has been made in this field, there are still many unresolved issues, among them the development of valid instruments for the assessment of risk.

  15. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  16. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  17. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-01-01

    In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of...

  18. CEA: assessment of risk management 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes an overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management in different areas: impact on the environment, installation safety, management of occupational risks (occupational health and safety), radiological protection of workers, transportation of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of law risks, controls and audits. It finally presents the risk management department

  19. Risk assessment in incremental software development

    OpenAIRE

    Matsuo, Eric K.

    1999-01-01

    Cost overruns, schedule slips, and projects with fewer features or functions than originally specified are some of the difficulties that the software community faces in almost all software projects. The application of proper risk management throughout the lifecycle of the software development can drastically improve the chances of success. Risk management is an essential skill that many good mangers possess. Utilizing proper risk management provides early risk detection, which in turn gives t...

  20. Regulatory assessment of risk to the environment: Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    'Health, Safety and Environment' is a familiar catchphrase in today's government departments, universities and industry. This catchphrase is most often associated with terms such as 'risk assessment', 'risk management' and 'hazard identification'. Such grouping demonstrates the underlying assumption that 'risk(s)' to the environment can be dealt with, and are being dealt with, using the same processes as those used for evaluating health and safety risks. This equally applies when the hazard is radiation. Management of risk to the environment is often carried out within a framework of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) incorporating Risk Assessment (RA) processes. Environmental Management Systems (EMS) and Risk Management Systems (RMS) also provide frameworks which incorporate RA processes. These systems are often integrated with existing quality and safety systems. The steps in these frameworks have been explained and comparisons have been drawn of how an EIA process and Environmental Management System compare with Environmental Risk Management processes. These comparisons demonstrate the common elements of each framework. The Australian Standard for Risk Management (AS/NZS 4360:1999) describes the risk management process in terms of establishing a risk context, identification, analysis, evaluation and treatment of risks. The application of risk management procedures as described in the Australian Standard for Risk Management have been discussed in relation to how they might apply to a simple case scenario of a historical landfill containing radioactive waste. (author)

  1. Come fly with me: review of clinically important arboviruses for global travelers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleton, Natalie; Koopmans, Marion; Reimerink, Johan; Godeke, Gert-Jan; Reusken, Chantal

    2012-11-01

    Western tourists are increasingly traveling to exotic locations often located in tropical or subtropical regions of the world. The magnitude of international travel and the constantly changing dynamics of arbovirus diseases across the globe demand up-to-date information about arbovirus threats to travelers and the countries they visit. In this review, the current knowledge on arbovirus threats to global travelers is summarized and prioritized per region. Based on most common clinical syndromes, currently known arboviruses can be grouped to develop diagnostic algorithms to support decision-making in diagnostics. This review systematically combines and structures the current knowledge on medically important travel-related arboviruses and illustrates the necessity of a detailed patient history (travel history, symptoms experienced, vaccination history, engaged activities, tick or mosquito bite and use of repellent and onset of symptoms), to guide the diagnosis.

  2. Defining food sampling strategy for chemical risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Wesolek, Nathalie; Roudot, Alain-Claude

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Collection of accurate and reliable data is a prerequisite for informed risk assessment and risk management. For chemical contaminants in food, contamination assessments enable consumer protection and exposure assessments. And yet, the accuracy of a contamination assessment depends on both chemical analysis and sampling plan performance. A sampling plan is always used when the contamination level of a food lot is evaluated, due to the fact that the whole lot can not be...

  3. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  4. Emergence of zoonotic arboviruses by animal trade and migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobler Gerhard

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Arboviruses are transmitted in nature exclusively or to a major extend by arthropods. They belong to the most important viruses invading new areas in the world and their occurrence is strongly influenced by climatic changes due to the life cycle of the transmitting vectors. Several arboviruses have emerged in new regions of the world during the last years, like West Nile virus (WNV in the Americas, Usutu virus (USUV in Central Europe, or Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV in the Arabian Peninsula. In most instances the ways of introduction of arboviruses into new regions are not known. Infections acquired during stays in the tropics and subtropics are diagnosed with increasing frequency in travellers returning from tropical countries, but interestingly no attention is paid on accompanying pet animals or the hematophagous ectoparasites that may still be attached to them. Here we outline the known ecology of the mosquito-borne equine encephalitis viruses (WEEV, EEEV, and VEEV, WNV, USUV, RVFV, and Japanese Encephalitis virus, as well as Tick-Borne Encephalitis virus and its North American counterpart Powassan virus, and will discuss the most likely mode that these viruses could expand their respective geographical range. All these viruses have a different epidemiology as different vector species, reservoir hosts and virus types have adapted to promiscuous and robust or rather very fine-balanced transmission cycles. Consequently, these viruses will behave differently with regard to the requirements needed to establish new endemic foci outside their original geographical ranges. Hence, emphasis is given on animal trade and suitable ecologic conditions, including competent vectors and vertebrate hosts.

  5. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Monira Hussain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

  6. 2011 FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Lidar: Nashua River Watershed (Massachusetts, New Hampshire)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data are the lidar points collected for FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) for the Nashua River Watershed. This area falls in portions of...

  7. The Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment Project: A New Way of Looking at Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unks, Ruth A.; Thor, Linda

    2008-01-01

    This article reviews the Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment (MIRA) project and discusses its challenges and successes. Strategies and resources are offered for assisting community college administrators, faculty, and staff to successfully implement enterprise risk management at their institutions.

  8. Experimental Infections of Oryzomys couesi with Sympatric Arboviruses from Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deardorff, Eleanor R.; Forrester, Naomi L.; Travassos da Rosa, Amelia P.; Estrada-Franco, Jose G.; Navarro-Lopez, Roberto; Tesh, Robert B.; Weaver, Scott C.

    2010-01-01

    Coues rice rat (Oryzomys couesi), a species abundant throughout Central America, was evaluated experimentally for the ability to serve as an amplifying host for three arboviruses: Patois (Bunyaviridae, Orthobunyavirus), Nepuyo (Orthobunyavirus), and Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus subtype ID (Togaviridae, Alphavirus). These three viruses have similar ecologies and are known to co-circulate in nature. Animals from all three cohorts survived infection and developed viremia with no apparent signs of illness and long-lasting antibodies. Thus, O. couesi may play a role in the general maintenance of these viruses in nature. PMID:20134016

  9. Assessment of the risk of transporting liquid chlorine by rail

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, W.B.

    1980-03-01

    This report presents the risk of shipping liquid chlorine by rail. While chlorine is not an energy material, there are several benefits to studying chlorine transportation risks. First, chlorine, like energy materials, is widely used as a feedstock to industry. Second, it is the major purification agent in municipal water treatment systems and therefore, provides direct benefits to the public. Finally, other risk assessments have been completed for liquid chlorine shipments in the US and Europe, which provide a basis for comparison with this study. None of the previous PNL energy material risk assessments have had other studies for comparison. For these reasons, it was felt that a risk assessment of chlorine transportation by rail could provide information on chlorine risk levels, identify ways to reduce these risks and use previous studies on chlorine risks to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the PNL risk assessment methodology. The risk assessment methodology used in this study is summarized. The methodology is presented in the form of a risk assessment model which is constructed for ease of periodic updating of the data base so that the risk may be reevaluated as additional data become available. The report is sectioned to correspond to specific analysis steps identified in the model. The transport system and accident environment are described. The response of the transport system to accident environments is described. Release sequences are postulated and evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a direct comparison with other reports in this series.

  10. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  11. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille;

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...... randomly selected 5000 women living in the region of Southern Denmark aged 40-90 years to receive a mailed questionnaire concerning risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX. The predicted 10-year probability of hip fractures was calculated for each woman returning a complete questionnaire using...... the Swedish version of FRAX. The observed 10-year hip fracture risk was also calculated for each woman using age-specific hip fracture rates from the National Hospital Discharge Register and National survival tables. RESULTS: A total of 4194 (84%) women responded to the questionnaire and 3636 (73%) gave...

  12. What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

    OpenAIRE

    S. Ravi Rajan; Letourneau, Deborah K.

    2012-01-01

    The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specif...

  13. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  14. Behavioral Risk Assessment of the Guarded Suicidal Patient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Robert I.

    2008-01-01

    Psychiatrists and other mental health professionals are trained to assess patients by direct observation and examination. Short inpatient length of stay, brief outpatient visits, emergency room evaluations, and other time-limited clinical settings require rapid assessment of suicide risk. Recognition of behavioral suicide risk factors can assist…

  15. Study of occupation health risk assessment on Chinese coal mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIAO Guo-qing; YAN Xiang-nong

    2007-01-01

    Factors of occupation health hazard were identified and analyzed, and indexes system of occupation health risk assessment were established by applying fuzzy theory and system safety technique, the weights of index system were obtained by AHP, finally a reasonable mathematics model of occupation health risk assessment was accomplished by an example.

  16. Predictive validity of the Hand Arm Risk assessment Method (HARM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douwes, M.; Boocock, M.; Coenen, P.; Heuvel, S. van den; Bosch, T.

    2014-01-01

    The Hand Arm Risk assessment Method (HARM) is a simplified risk assessment method for determining musculoskeletal symptoms to the arm, neck and/or shoulder posed by hand-arm tasks of the upper body. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of HARM using data collected from a

  17. MINI REVIEW - EPIGENETIC PROCESSES AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment encourages the use of mechanistic data in the assessment of human cancer risk at low (environmental) exposure levels. The key events that define a particular mode of action for tumor fo...

  18. Attacker economics for Internet-scale vulnerability risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Allodi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Vulnerability risk assessment is a crucial process in security management, and the CVSS score is the standard-de-facto risk metric for software vulnerabilities. In this manuscript I show that current risk assessment methodologies do not fit real “in the wild” attack data. I also present my three-steps plan to identify an Internet-scale risk assessment methodology that accounts for attacker economics and opportunities. Eventually, I want to provide answers like the following: “If we depl...

  19. Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

    2016-08-01

    In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments.

  20. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENTS (RA.D.1D)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk assessments are based on questions that the assessor asks about scientific information that is relevant to human and/or environmental risk. The risk characterization also provides an evaluation of the assumptions, uncertainties, and selection of studies and models used in th...

  1. Risk assessment: the importance of genetic polymorphisms in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Lisbeth E.; Loft, S H; Autrup, H

    2001-01-01

    and increased cancer risk, such results indicate effect modification regarding cancer risk. In risk assessment the safety 'factor' of 10 is generally accepted to allow for variation in individual susceptibility. Reviewing the literature justifies the factor of 10 when considering single polymorphisms. However...

  2. Risk assessment: the importance of genetic polymorphisms in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    E. Knudsen, Lisbeth; Loft, Steffen; Autrup, Herman

    2001-01-01

    and increased cancer risk, such results indicate effect modification regarding cancer risk. In risk assessment the safety ‘factor’ of 10 is generally accepted to allow for variation in individual susceptibility. Reviewing the literature justifies the factor of 10 when considering single polymorphisms. However...

  3. Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

    2016-08-01

    In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments. PMID:27234301

  4. Microbiological risk assessment of foods in international trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schothorst, van M.

    2002-01-01

    The international workshop on "Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making" reviewed the use of risk-based decision making across a range of industry sectors and countries. This paper presents the contribution to the workshop covering microbiological risk assessment of foods i

  5. Risk assessment perspectives in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk evaluation involves a) optimization, where collective dose is reduced by application of controls, b) justification, where benefits and costs are balanced, and c) application of dose limits. Justification may be determined in general by examining the difference between the new practice and a reference condition in the form of a diference equation. This equation is expanded to take into account other risks in addition to radiation risks. The relative potencies of some toxic chemicals are compared with those of some isotopes. Nuclear and waste disposal accidents are also considered. It is concluded that a probablistic analysis may be useful for resolving the high level radioactive waste question but not for nuclear accidents. However, in the latter case, relative risk models may provide insight into the causes of risk and where resources for reducing the risk may be best spent. (H.K.)

  6. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  7. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crevel, Rene' W. R.; Baumert, Joseph L.; Baka, Athanasia;

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessment...... approaches and methodologies. Food allergens possess some unique characteristics, which make a simple safety assessment approach based on the establishment of absolute population thresholds inadequate. Dose distribution modelling of MEDs permitted the quantification of the risk of reaction at the population...... level and has been readily integrated with consumption and contamination data through probabilistic risk assessment approaches to generate quantitative risk predictions. This paper discusses the strengths and limitations of this approach and identifies important data gaps, which affect the outcomes...

  8. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  9. Statistical method for scientific projects risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Бедрій, Дмитро Іванович

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses the use of statistical methods for risk evaluation of the scientific institutions activity in the public sector of the Ukrainian economy in the process of planning and execution of scientific projects, some of the results of our research in this area are presented. The main objective of the study is to determine the possibility of using the statistical method in the process of evaluation of the research projects risks. The use of risk evaluation methods allows the manag...

  10. Quadrant III RFI draft report: Appendix J, Baseline risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In accordance with the Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (U. S.EPA 1989), which states that background risk should be calculated separately from site-related risk in order to provide important information to the risk manager, this appendix assesses the human health risks associated with background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soil at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS). This appendix is organized as follows: Background Conditions, in which the results of Geraghty ampersand Miller's work on characterizing background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soils is summarized; Identification of Exposure Pathways; Estimation of Environmental Concentrations; Estimation of Human Intake; Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Characterization, in which numerical estimates of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk are calculated for each naturally occurring compound and potential exposure pathway

  11. Technology development risk assessment and mixed interests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main purpose of this work is to demonstrate by means of a critical analysis of the state-of-the-art in technological and environmental risk analysis and decision making, that risk and environmental management decisions involve heterogeneous groups of social actors, each representing conflicting interests. It is argued that risk analyses should therefore be based on social interaction and communication paradigma, as well as, on a new rational way of thinking concerning the optimum choice of suitable technological development strategies leading towards a publicly acceptable balance between national energy-economic strategic necessities and social and individual perception of risk

  12. Sodium monofluoroacetate (1080) risk assessment and risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sodium monofluoroacetate (1080) is a vertebrate pesticide widely used for possum control in New Zealand. Fluoroacetate is also a toxic component of poisonous plants found in Australia, South Africa, South America, and India. Because of its importance and effectiveness in pest control and the highly toxic nature of this compound, its acute sub-lethal and target organ toxicity have been extensively studied. In relation to its use as a pesticide its environmental fate, persistence, non-target impacts and general toxicology have been and continue to be extensively studied. Toxic baits must be prepared and used with extreme care, otherwise humans, livestock, and non-target wildlife will be put at risk. The high risk of secondary poisoning of dogs is a cause for concern. 1080 acts by interfering with cellular energy production. Possums die from heart failure, usually within 6-18 h of eating baits. Long-term exposure to sub-lethal doses can have harmful effects and strict safety precautions are enforced to protect contractors and workers in the bait manufacturing industry. Considerable care is taken when using 1080 to ensure that the risks of using it are outweighed by the ecological benefits achieved from its use. When its use is controversial, risk communicators must take care not to trivialise the toxicity of the compound. The benefits of 1080 use in conservation, pest control, and disease control should be weighed up alongside the risks of using 1080 and other techniques for pest control

  13. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  14. Evaluation of arboviruses of public health interest in free-living non-human primates (Alouatta spp., Callithrix spp., Sapajus spp. in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Carneiro da Rocha

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the presence of arboviruses from the Flavivirus genus in asymptomatic free-living non-human primates (NHPs living in close contact with humans and vectors in the States of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: NHP sera samples (total n = 80, Alouatta spp. n = 07, Callithrix spp. n = 29 and Sapajus spp. n = 44 were screened for the presence of viral genomes using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and 10% polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis techniques. RESULTS: All of the samples were negative for the Flavivirus genome following the 10% polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These negative results indicate that the analyzed animals were not infected with arboviruses from the Flavivirus genus and did not represent a risk for viral transmission through vectors during the period in which the samples were collected.

  15. Assessment of health risks caused by air pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is a support document to an other report from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 'Risk assessment - a research programme aimed at health risks from air pollution in the general environment', report 3890, 1991 and is a survey of the scientific 'state of the art' in the different parts of risk assessment. Furthermore certain proposals are made concerning the scientific content of the future research in this area. (au)

  16. Risk Assessment Techniques for Split Capital Investment Trusts

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, Andrew T; Clunie, James

    2003-01-01

    The split capital investment trust crisis has brought into focus the need for more reliable risk assessment techniques for shares in the sector. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of traditional pricing and risk description measures for split capital investment trusts (eg gross redemption yield, cover, hurdle rates) and ways of making these more useful. We then examine alternative pricing and risk assessment techniques (eg option pricing, sensitivity measures). In particular, some of the...

  17. Hereditary cancer risk assessment: essential tools for a better approach

    OpenAIRE

    Gomy, Israel; Estevez Diz, Maria Del Pilar

    2013-01-01

    Hereditary cancer risk assessment (HCRA) is a multidisciplinary process of estimating probabilities of germline mutations in cancer susceptibility genes and assessing empiric risks of cancer, based on personal and family history. It includes genetic counseling, testing and management of at-risk individuals so that they can make well-informed choices about cancer surveillance, surgical treatment and chemopreventive measures, including biomolecular cancer therapies. Providing patients and famil...

  18. Uncertainties associated with assessing the public health risk from Legionella

    OpenAIRE

    Harriet eWhiley; Alexandra eKeegan; Howard eFallowfield; Kirstin eRoss

    2014-01-01

    Legionella is an opportunistic pathogen of public health concern. Current regulatory and management guidelines for the control of this organism are informed by risk assessments. However, there are many unanswered questions and uncertainties regarding Legionella epidemiology, strain infectivity, infectious dose and detection methods. This review follows the EnHealth Risk Assessment Framework, to examine the current information available regarding Legionella risk and discuss the uncertainties a...

  19. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    OpenAIRE

    Xin Sun; Ping Ning; Xiaolong Tang; Honghong Yi; Kai Li; Lianbi Zhou; Xianmang Xu

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the...

  20. The Concept of Risk Assessment and Being Unfit for Surgery.

    OpenAIRE

    Kolh, Philippe; De Hert, S; De Rango, P.

    2016-01-01

    The concept of risk assessment and the identification of surgical unfitness for vascular intervention is a particularly controversial issue today as the minimally invasive surgical population has increased not only in volume but also in complexity (comorbidity profile) and age, requiring an improved pre-operative selection and definition of high risk. A practical step by step (three steps, two points for each) approach for surgical risk assessment is suggested in this review. As a general rul...

  1. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  2. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.

    2009-04-01

    to March) precipitation, the number of days with maximum temperature between 24°C and 28°C and the number of days of May with minimum temperature below 0°C is able to model the chestnut productivity with r2 equal to 0.79. It should be pointed out that the relation between weather/climate and chestnut productivity may change over time. Finally, it is important to express objectively the effects of temperature and precipitation extremes on the chestnut productivity since temperature is one of the global circulation models predicted variables with less uncertainty. With these tools will be possible to assess the weather related risk on chestnut production as well as infer about evolution of the adequate conditions to the chestnut trees in the actual plantations and about the expansion of this specie. Bounous, G. (2002) "Il castagno" [Chestnut.] - Edagricole, Bologna. [In Ital.] Gomes-Laranjo, J., Coutinho, J.P., Ferreira-Cardoso, J., Pimentel-Pereira, M., Ramos, C., Torres-Pereira, J.(2005) "Assessment to a new concept of chestnut orchard management in vegetative wall.". Acta Hort. 693: 707-712. Gomes-Laranjo, J.C.E., Peixoto, F., Wong Fong Sang, H.W., Torres-Pereira, J.M.G.(2006) "Study of the temperature effect in three chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivars' behavior". J. Plant Physiol. 163: 945-955.

  3. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in diabetes: Risk scoresand provocative testing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause ofmorbidity and mortality among patients with diabetesmellitus, who have a risk of cardiovascular mortalitytwo to four times that of people without diabetes. Anindividualised approach to cardiovascular risk estimationand management is needed. Over the past decades,many risk scores have been developed to predict CVD.However, few have been externally validated in adiabetic population and limited studies have examinedthe impact of applying a prediction model in clinicalpractice. Currently, guidelines are focused on testingfor CVD in symptomatic patients. Atypical symptomsor silent ischemia are more common in the diabeticpopulation, and with additional markers of vasculardisease such as erectile dysfunction and autonomicneuropathy, these guidelines can be difficult to interpret.We propose an algorithm incorporating cardiovascularrisk scores in combination with typical and atypical signsand symptoms to alert clinicians to consider furtherinvestigation with provocative testing. The modalities forinvestigation of CVD are discussed.

  4. Development of a system utilizing data of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report deals with a concrete method of utilizing data of risk assessment. First, the authors point out the necessity to assess all stages of jobs (planning, meeting with contractors, performing phase of task, etc.) in risk assessment bout jobs in electric power company, because most jobs are performed by contract system and risks of a job are distributed over electric company, contractors and subcontractors. Secondly, risks estimated from past accidents and near-miss events must be included. If these 2 requirements are fulfilled, data of risk assessment can be more useful. Then below 4 forms of present data of risk assessment were developed. A form to be used in job planning stage in electric companies for efficient investment planning in safety measures. A form to be used in meetings between electric companies and contractors for checking accident prevention methods. A form to be used in meetings between contractors and subcontractors for enhancing a shared awareness of risk. A form to be used in tool box meetings for confirming safe condition and inheriting of ability of risk perception. Additionally, a data base system of risk assessment about 4 jobs was developed. This system prints out about 4 forms for each job and is useful for PDCA of safety activities. (author)

  5. Bleeding Risk Assessment in Atrial Fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lip, Gregory Y H; Lane, Deirdre A

    2016-01-01

    Stroke prevention is central to the management of atrial fibrillation (AF), and effective thromboprophylaxis requires oral anticoagulation (OAC). Even a single stroke risk factor confers excess risk, and the net clinical benefit of treatment is positive for OAC compared to no treatment or aspirin...

  6. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  7. Assessing the Construct Validity of Risk Attitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Smidts, A.

    2000-01-01

    Two major approaches to measuring risk attitude are compared. One, based on the expected utility model is derived from responses to lotteries and direct scaling. The other measure is a psychometric approach based on Likert statements that produces a unidimensional risk attitude scale. The data are f

  8. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  9. Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

  10. Political Risks and Their Assessment in Strategic Management Accounting

    OpenAIRE

    Valentyna Khodzytska; Mariya Shyhun

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the article is to develop an approach to the definition of the political risk in the system of strategic management of the company, representation the set of properties of political risk, in terms of its nature and factors of influence. It highlights the main aspects of the impact of political risk on strategic decision-making in the system of integrated management of business entities. It substantiates the importance of timely risk assessment and management, taking appropriate pre...

  11. Is There a Role for Qualitative Risk Assessment?

    OpenAIRE

    Krause, Paul J.; Fox, John; Judson, Philip

    2013-01-01

    Classically, risk is characterized by a point value probability indicating the likelihood of occurrence of an adverse effect. However, there are domains where the attainability of objective numerical risk characterizations is increasingly being questioned. This paper reviews the arguments in favour of extending classical techniques of risk assessment to incorporate meaningful qualitative and weak quantitative risk characterizations. A technique in which linguistic uncertainty terms are define...

  12. 76 FR 48119 - Oral Rabies Vaccine Trial; Availability of a Risk Assessment and an Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-08

    ...), as amended (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), (2) regulations of the Council on Environmental Quality for...@aphis.usda.gov ). To obtain copies of the risk assessment (also the manufacturer's risk analysis with... vaccination field trial in West Virginia. The environmental assessment, which is based on a risk...

  13. Making the EU "Risk Window" transparent: The normative foundations of the environmental risk assessment of GMOs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, K.K.; Gamborg, C.; Madsen, K.H.;

    2003-01-01

    ethical principles recognized in the Member States. However, the directive fails to reflect the critical role of value judgements in scientific risk assessment and any subsequent approval procedure. In this paper we argue that it is important to make all ethically relevant assumptions involved...... in the approval procedure transparent and thus available for public scrutiny. Mapping the value judgements that are made in an environmental risk assessment and approval procedure, we describe the political liberal nature of the EU legislation. We then look more closely at the prescriptions for environmental risk...... assessment and approval of GMOs outlined in the directive. An environmental risk assessment views the world through a "risk window" that only makes visible that which has been predefined as a relevant risk. The importance of the value judgements that define the risk window consists in limiting...

  14. Evolution of Mosquito-Based Arbovirus Surveillance Systems in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew F. van den Hurk

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Control of arboviral disease is dependent on the sensitive and timely detection of elevated virus activity or the identification of emergent or exotic viruses. The emergence of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV in northern Australia revealed numerous problems with performing arbovirus surveillance in remote locations. A sentinel pig programme detected JEV activity, although there were a number of financial, logistical, diagnostic and ethical limitations. A system was developed which detected viral RNA in mosquitoes collected by solar or propane powered CO2-baited traps. However, this method was hampered by trap-component malfunction, microbial contamination and large mosquito numbers which overwhelmed diagnostic capabilities. A novel approach involves allowing mosquitoes within a box trap to probe a sugar-baited nucleic-acid preservation card that is processed for expectorated arboviruses. In a longitudinal field trial, both Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses were detected numerous times from multiple traps over different weeks. Further refinements, including the development of unpowered traps and use of yeast-generated CO2, could enhance the applicability of this system to remote locations. New diagnostic technology, such as next generation sequencing and biosensors, will increase the capacity for recognizing emergent or exotic viruses, while cloud computing platforms will facilitate rapid dissemination of data.

  15. Ozone flux modelling for risk assessment: status and research needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuovinen J-P

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, some shortcomings involved in the modelling of ozone fluxes in the context of local-scale risk assessment are discussed, especially as related to the data collected within the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests. An enhanced monitoring strategy, that would provide a sounder basis for the development, validation and application of risk assessment modelling tools, is also suggested.

  16. DoD/DoN requirements for computer risk assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Black, Margaret A.; Doherty, Martin F.

    1983-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The current methodology for conducting computer Risk Assessments within the Department of the Navy is examined by studying the theories and philosophies that have evolved from the perspective of the Federal Government. A review of the Navy's attitude and procedures for both contractual assistance and inhcuse approaches to conducting Risk Assessments is presented, along with a general framework for conducting an assessment of the ...

  17. The Prospects of Using Fuzzy Approaches to Ecological Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Uzhga-Rebrov, Oleg; Kuleshova, Galina

    2015-01-01

    The issue of environmental quality improvement has been receiving much attention in the developed countries in recent years. Due to that, the role of assessment of ecological risks associated both with natural events and technogene activity of humans is increasing. Previous approaches to the assessment of ecological risks were fully based on statistical data and expert evaluation of potential losses and probabilities of unfavourable consequences. When this kind of assessment is carried out, i...

  18. Mercury from dental amalgam: exposure and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koral, Stephen M

    2013-02-01

    There has long been an undercurrent within the dental profession of anti-amalgam sentiment, a "mercury-free" movement. To assess whether anything is or is not scientifically wrong with amalgam, one must look to the vast literature on exposure, toxicology, and risk assessment of mercury. The subject of risk assessment goes straight to the heart of the debate over whether a malgam is safe, or not, for unrestricted use in dentistry in the population at large.

  19. The readability of online breast cancer risk assessment tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortez, Sarah; Milbrandt, Melissa; Kaphingst, Kimberly; James, Aimee; Colditz, Graham

    2015-11-01

    Numerous breast cancer risk assessment tools that allow users to input personal risk information and obtain a personalized breast cancer risk estimate are available on the Internet. The goal of these tools is to increase screening awareness and identify modifiable health behaviors; however, the utility of this risk information is limited by the readability of the material. We undertook this study to assess the overall readability of breast cancer risk assessment tools and accompanying information, as well as to identify areas of suggested improvement. We searched for breast cancer risk assessment tools, using five search terms, on three search engines. All searches were performed on June 12, 2014. Sites that met inclusion criteria were then assessed for readability using the suitability assessment of materials (SAM) and the SMOG readability formula (July 1, 2014–January 31, 2015). The primary outcomes are the frequency distribution of overall SAM readability category (superior, adequate, or not suitable) and mean SMOG reading grade level. The search returned 42 sites were eligible for assessment, only 9 (21.4 %) of which achieved an overall SAM superior rating, and 27 (64.3 %) were deemed adequate. The average SMOG reading grade level was grade 12.1 (SD 1.6, range 9–15). The readability of breast cancer risk assessment tools and the sites that host them is an important barrier to risk communication. This study demonstrates that most breast cancer risk assessment tools are not accessible to individuals with limited health literacy skills. More importantly, this study identifies potential areas of improvement and has the potential to heighten a physician’s awareness of the Internet resources a patient might navigate in their quest for breast cancer risk information.

  20. Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

    2016-05-01

    Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

  1. Transport of anhydrous ammoniac - risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This risk analysis of anhydrous ammonia transport in France was done within a study initiated by the Department of dangerous goods of the Ministry of transport. The study deals with the road and rail transportation of bulk anhydrous ammonia. After analysis of transport system and traffic, the transport accident risks are estimated, as well as their distribution on the French territory. Finally after a synthesis of results, a number of safety measures to be undertaken were identified. This is a joint study of SMC-CEPN, with a specific role of SEMA-METRA-CONSEIL concerning the traffic frequency, and the center for risk evaluation concerning nuclear safety

  2. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  3. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  4. Selective Factors Associated with the Evolution of Codon Usage in Natural Populations of Arboviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velazquez-Salinas, Lauro; Zarate, Selene; Eschbaumer, Michael; Pereira Lobo, Francisco; Gladue, Douglas P; Arzt, Jonathan; Novella, Isabel S; Rodriguez, Luis L

    2016-01-01

    Arboviruses (arthropod borne viruses) have life cycles that include both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts with substantial differences in vector and host specificity between different viruses. Most arboviruses utilize RNA for their genetic material and are completely dependent on host tRNAs for their translation, suggesting that virus codon usage could be a target for selection. In the current study we analyzed the relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) patterns of 26 arboviruses together with 25 vectors and hosts, including 8 vertebrates and 17 invertebrates. We used hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) to identify trends in codon usage. HCA demonstrated that the RSCU of arboviruses reflects that of their natural hosts, but not that of dead-end hosts. Of the two major components identified by PCA, the first accounted for 62.1% of the total variance, and among the 59 codons analyzed in this study, the leucine codon CTG had the highest correlation with the first principal component, however isoleucine had the highest correlation during amino acid analysis. Nucleotide and dinucleotide composition were the variables that explained most of the total codon usage variance. The results suggest that the main factors driving the evolution of codon usage in arboviruses is based on the nucleotide and dinucleotide composition present in the host. Comparing codon usage of arboviruses and potential vector hosts can help identifying potential vectors for emerging arboviruses.

  5. Rapid selection against arbovirus-induced apoptosis during infection of a mosquito vector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Katelyn; Olson, Bradley J S C; Huang, Ning; Unis, Dave; Clem, Rollie J

    2015-03-10

    Millions of people are infected each year by arboviruses (arthropod-borne viruses) such as chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile viruses, yet for reasons that are largely unknown, only a relatively small number of mosquito species are able to transmit arboviruses. Understanding the complex factors that determine vector competence could facilitate strategies for controlling arbovirus infections. Apoptosis is a potential antiviral defense response that has been shown to be important in other virus-host systems. However, apoptosis is rarely seen in arbovirus-infected mosquito cells, raising questions about its importance as an antiviral defense in mosquitoes. We tested the effect of stimulating apoptosis during arbovirus infection by infecting Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with a Sindbis virus (SINV) clone called MRE/Rpr, in which the MRE-16 strain of SINV was engineered to express the proapoptotic gene reaper from Drosophila. MRE/Rpr exhibited an impaired infection phenotype that included delayed midgut infection, delayed virus replication, and reduced virus accumulation in saliva. Nucleotide sequencing of the reaper insert in virus populations isolated from individual mosquitoes revealed evidence of rapid and strong selection against maintenance of Reaper expression in MRE/Rpr-infected mosquitoes. The impaired phenotype of MRE/Rpr, coupled with the observed negative selection against Reaper expression, indicates that apoptosis is a powerful defense against arbovirus infection in mosquitoes and suggests that arboviruses have evolved mechanisms to avoid stimulating apoptosis in mosquitoes that serve as vectors.

  6. Factors responsible for the emergence of arboviruses; strategies, challenges and limitations for their control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Guodong; Gao, Xiaoyan; Gould, Ernest A

    2015-03-01

    Slave trading of Africans to the Americas, during the 16th to the 19th century was responsible for the first recorded emergence in the New World of two arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), yellow fever virus and dengue virus. Many other arboviruses have since emerged from their sylvatic reservoirs and dispersed globally due to evolving factors that include anthropological behaviour, commercial transportation and land-remediation. Here, we outline some characteristics of these highly divergent arboviruses, including the variety of life cycles they have developed and the mechanisms by which they have adapted to evolving changes in habitat and host availability. We cite recent examples of virus emergence that exemplify how arboviruses have exploited the consequences of the modern human lifestyle. Using our current understanding of these viruses, we also attempt to demonstrate some of the limitations encountered in developing control strategies to reduce the impact of future emerging arbovirus diseases. Finally, we present recommendations for development by an international panel of experts reporting directly to World Health Organization, with the intention of providing internationally acceptable guidelines for improving emerging arbovirus disease control strategies. Success in these aims should alleviate the suffering and costs encountered during recent decades when arboviruses have emerged from their sylvatic environment.

  7. Selective Factors Associated with the Evolution of Codon Usage in Natural Populations of Arboviruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velazquez-Salinas, Lauro; Zarate, Selene; Eschbaumer, Michael; Pereira Lobo, Francisco; Gladue, Douglas P.; Arzt, Jonathan; Novella, Isabel S.; Rodriguez, Luis L.

    2016-01-01

    Arboviruses (arthropod borne viruses) have life cycles that include both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts with substantial differences in vector and host specificity between different viruses. Most arboviruses utilize RNA for their genetic material and are completely dependent on host tRNAs for their translation, suggesting that virus codon usage could be a target for selection. In the current study we analyzed the relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) patterns of 26 arboviruses together with 25 vectors and hosts, including 8 vertebrates and 17 invertebrates. We used hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) to identify trends in codon usage. HCA demonstrated that the RSCU of arboviruses reflects that of their natural hosts, but not that of dead-end hosts. Of the two major components identified by PCA, the first accounted for 62.1% of the total variance, and among the 59 codons analyzed in this study, the leucine codon CTG had the highest correlation with the first principal component, however isoleucine had the highest correlation during amino acid analysis. Nucleotide and dinucleotide composition were the variables that explained most of the total codon usage variance. The results suggest that the main factors driving the evolution of codon usage in arboviruses is based on the nucleotide and dinucleotide composition present in the host. Comparing codon usage of arboviruses and potential vector hosts can help identifying potential vectors for emerging arboviruses. PMID:27455096

  8. A framework for risk assessment on lean production implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliano Almeida Marodin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The organizational and technical complexity of implementing the lean principles and practices can become an extensively time consuming journey with few benefits. We argue that risk assessment can aid on the understanding and management of the major difficulties on the Lean production implementation (LPI. Thus, this paper proposes a framework for risk assessment on the LPI process. The literature review permitted to adapt the risk assessment steps to the characteristics of the LPI and develop data collection and analysis procedures for each step. The Sociotechnical systems (STS theory was brought in to improve the understanding of the context’s characteristics on the proposed framework because it has a major influence on the LPI. The framework was has five steps: (a defining the unit of analysis; (b describing the context; (c risk identification; (d risk analysis; and (e risk relationships modeling.

  9. Development of Integrated Assessment Technology of Risk and Performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main idea and contents are summarized as below 1) Development of new risk/performance assessment system innovating old labor-intensive risk assessment structure - New consolidated risk assessment technology from various hazard(flood, fire, seismic in NPP) - BOP model development for performance monitoring - Consolidated risk/performance management system for consistency and efficiency of NPP 2) Resolution technology for pending issues in PSA - Base technology for PSA of digital I and C system - Base technology for seismic PSA reflecting domestic seismic characteristics and aging effect - Uncertainty reduction technology for level 2 PSA and best estimation of containment failure frequency 3) Next generation risk/performance assessment technology - Human-induced error reduction technology for efficient operation of a NPP

  10. Current issues and perspectives in food safety and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenbrand, G

    2015-12-01

    In this review, current issues and opportunities in food safety assessment are discussed. Food safety is considered an essential element inherent in global food security. Hazard characterization is pivotal within the continuum of risk assessment, but it may be conceived only within a very limited frame as a true alternative to risk assessment. Elucidation of the mode of action underlying a given hazard is vital to create a plausible basis for human toxicology evaluation. Risk assessment, to convey meaningful risk communication, must be based on appropriate and reliable consideration of both exposure and mode of action. New perspectives, provided by monitoring human exogenous and endogenous exposure biomarkers, are considered of great promise to support classical risk extrapolation from animal toxicology. PMID:26614817

  11. Risk monitoring for nuclear power plant applications using Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Systematic and comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is used to evaluate risks for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), and the risk information is also used to enhance the rationality and accountability of safety-related activities, and to realize efficient management in NPPs. Regulators and industry are discussing the standards and guidelines for the various types of PRA and management for near-future usage. 'Risk Monitoring' is the essential item for PRA usage and risk-informed activities, and we assume 'At-power risk monitoring in case of On-Line Maintenance' and 'Shutdown risk evaluation for every outage' are two key issues for 'Risk Monitoring'. This paper describes the COSMOS Risk Monitoring system, and also of its usage for 'At-power risk monitoring in case of On-Line Maintenance' and 'Shutdown risk evaluation for every outage'. (author)

  12. Risk Assessment Techniques and Survey Method for COTS Components

    CERN Document Server

    Gupta, Rashmi

    2012-01-01

    The Rational Unified Process a software engineering process is gaining popularity nowadays. RUP delivers best software practices for component software Development life cycle It supports component based software development. Risk is involved in every component development phase .neglecting those risks sometimes hampers the software growth and leads to negative outcome. In Order to provide appropriate security and protection levels, identifying various risks is very vital. Therefore Risk identification plays a very crucial role in the component based software development This report addresses incorporation of component based software development cycle into RUP phases, assess several category of risk encountered in the component based software. It also entails a survey method to identify the risk factor and evaluating the overall severity of the component software development in terms of the risk. Formula for determining risk prevention cost and finding the risk probability is also been included. The overall go...

  13. Assessing supervisory scenarios for interest rate risk

    OpenAIRE

    Lopez, Jose A.; Christensen, Jens H.E.

    2015-01-01

    A new proposal by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision for setting the amount of capital banks must hold against potential losses from interest rate risk uses only a few, very stylized scenarios. Analysis shows the proposed scenarios are extremely unlikely to occur. While they may be appropriate for setting bank capital guidelines, they are much less relevant for everyday risk management. Instead, using a modeling framework with a plausible range of interest rate scenarios would be more...

  14. Ecological Risk Assessment of Jarosite Waste Disposal

    OpenAIRE

    Kerolli-Mustafa, Mihone; Ćurković, Lidija; Fajković, Hana; Rončević, Sanda

    2015-01-01

    Jarosite waste, originating from zinc extraction industry, is considered hazardous due to the presence and the mobility of toxic metals that it contains. Its worldwide disposal in many tailing damps has become a major ecological concern. Three different methods, namely modified Synthetic Precipitation Leaching Procedure (SPLP), three-stage BCR sequential extraction procedure and Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI) Method were used to access the ecological risk of jarosite waste disposal in...

  15. Kyrgyz Republic Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Broka, Sandra; Giertz, Åsa; Christensen, Garry; Hanif, Charity; Rasmussen, Debra; Rubaiza, Rhoda

    2016-01-01

    Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of mor...

  16. CEA - Assessment of risk management for 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes an overview of the main events, actions performed by the CEA, and facts for 2012 regarding protection and monitoring of the environment, installation safety, occupational health and safety, radiological protection of workers, transportation of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, emergency situation management, legal risk management, internal controls and audits. It also presents the organisation and action of the risk management department within the CEA

  17. Risk assessment after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage.

    OpenAIRE

    Rockall, T A; Logan, R F; Devlin, H. B.; Northfield, T. C.

    1996-01-01

    The aim of this study was to establish the relative importance of risk factors for mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage, and to formulate a simple numerical scoring system that categorizes patients by risk. A prospective, unselected, multicentre, population based study was undertaken using standardised questionnaires in two phases one year apart. A total of 4185 cases of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage over the age of 16 identified over a four month period in 1993...

  18. CEA - Assessment of risk management 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After some introducing texts by CEA managers, this report proposes a rather detailed overview and presentation of CEA activities, objectives and obtained results in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal controls and audits, activity of the risk management department, CEA activities from research to industry

  19. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  20. Model of Assessment of Marketing Risks in Investment Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solntsev Serhiy O.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is the study of theoretical and methodical grounds of assessing marketing risks when realising investment projects for increase of efficiency of making managerial decisions and minimisation of the level of marketing risks. In the result of the study the article offers to allocate the stage of assessment in the process of management, consisting of detection, analysis and assessment of marketing risks. Structurisation of methods of assessment of marketing risks allowed supplementing the existing groups of methods of assessment of risks using methods of marketing studies of consumer behaviour and develop a model of stage-by-stage complex assessment of marketing risks in investment projects, which is based on the study of the process of market exchange of enterprises and modelling behaviour of consumers under market conditions. The prospect of further studies is identification of sources and specific features of assessing marketing risks during the further stages of realisation of an investment project and when a commodity enters the market.

  1. Risk management and risk assessment of novel plant foods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Ib; Søborg, Inge; Eriksen, Folmer Damsted;

    2008-01-01

    and definitions to be used in determining novelty of a plant food and also propose a safety assessment approach for novel plant food with no or limited documented history of safe consumption. A 2-step management procedure is recommended for a smooth introduction of fruits and vegetables; first to establish...... food supply in other parts of the world may be considered novel in Europe. Novel food regulation is already in force in the European Community, Australia/New Zealand and in Canada where the novel plant foods need to go through a premarket assessment procedure. This paper propose criteria...

  2. Economic Risk Assessment Taking Into Account the Volume Oscillator Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loredana Mihaela LAPADUSI

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Economic risk can be assessed from many points of view, but generally speaking it means the firm's inability to match workload with cost structure. Expansion of production capacity, adaptation to new technologies, diversification of products are only a few factors influencing risk. These, along with financial risk and bankruptcy risk constitute the most important category of risk which presents a great interest for the banks, shareholders, managers, business partners, etc. The purpose of this article is to provide a brief overview of tje oscillation of your company's activity from the point of view of economic risk. The main objective of this research lies in economic risk assessment by means of the margin of safety, the safety index and critical time point.

  3. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-12-01

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  4. Biologic markers in risk assessment for environmental carcinogens

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perera, F.; Mayer, J.; Santella, R.M.; Brenner, D.; Jeffrey, A.; Latriano, L.; Smith, S.; Warburton, D.; Young, T.L.; Tsai, W.Y.; Brandt-Rauf, P. (Columbia Univ. School of Public Health, New York, NY (United States)); Hemminki, K. (Finnish School of Occupational Health, Helsinki (Finland))

    1991-01-01

    The potential of biologic markers to provide more timely and precise risk assessments for environmental carcinogens is viewed against the current state-of-the-art in biological monitoring/molecular epidemiology. Biologic markers such as carcinogen-DNA adducts and oncogene activation are currently considered valid qualitative indicators of potential risk, but for most chemical exposures research is needed to establish their validity as quantitative predictors of cancer risk. Biologic markers have, however, already provided valuable insights into the magnitude of interindividual variation in response to carcinogenic exposures, with major implications for risk assessment.

  5. Quantitative risk assessment to enhance aeromacs security in SESAR

    OpenAIRE

    Ben Mahmoud, Mohamed-Slim; Larrieu, Nicolas; Pirovano, Alain

    2012-01-01

    International audience This paper presents the simulation results relevant to the 15.2.7 Working Package of the European SESAR Project1. The main goal was to conduct a risk assessment of network security for the AeroMACS airport network. The risk analysis is based on a new approach for network security assessment that measures quantitatively the network risk level. Critical aspects such as the impact of a successful attack on a node and the risk propagation of that attack within an aeronau...

  6. Biologic markers in risk assessment for environmental carcinogens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential of biologic markers to provide more timely and precise risk assessments for environmental carcinogens is viewed against the current state-of-the-art in biological monitoring/molecular epidemiology. Biologic markers such as carcinogen-DNA adducts and oncogene activation are currently considered valid qualitative indicators of potential risk, but for most chemical exposures research is needed to establish their validity as quantitative predictors of cancer risk. Biologic markers have, however, already provided valuable insights into the magnitude of interindividual variation in response to carcinogenic exposures, with major implications for risk assessment

  7. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  8. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  9. [Use of ionizing radiation sources in metallurgy: risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giugni, U

    2012-01-01

    Use of ionizing radiation sources in the metallurgical industry: risk assessment. Radioactive sources and fixed or mobile X-ray equipment are used for both process and quality control. The use of ionizing radiation sources requires careful risk assessment. The text lists the characteristics of the sources and the legal requirements, and contains a description of the documentation required and the methods used for risk assessment. It describes how to estimate the doses to operators and the relevant classification criteria used for the purpose of radiation protection. Training programs must be organized in close collaboration between the radiation protection expert and the occupational physician.

  10. Assessing the risks from exposure to radon in dwellings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The factors used to assess the radiation dose and health risks from human exposure to radon in dwellings are critically reviewed in this summary. Sources of indoor radon and determinants of air concentrations and exposure levels are given as well as the uncertainties that exist in their formulation. Methods of assessing health effects from inhalation of radon and its progeny are discussed with emphasis on dosimetry of radon daughters and formulation of risk per dose values. Finally, methods of assessing risks for general population exposures to indoor radon concentrations are treated

  11. M/OD Risk Assessment System and Its Applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hai-fu; YU Qing-bo; LIU You-ying; WANG Hui

    2009-01-01

    A risk assessment system named meteoroid & orbital debris risk assessment system (MODRAS) developed for assessing risks of the spacecraft under the meteoroid and debris environment (M/OD EM) is presented.The computing resolution of MODRAS has been verified by both the three generic spacecraft geometries of inter agency debris committee (IADC) and similar foreign software such as BUMPER,ESABASE,and MDPANTO.The results show that the system is fit well with the computing results of the foreign software.Typical applications of the system are also presented,including a manned spacecraft and a space shuttle.

  12. Risk Assessments by Female Victims of Intimate Partner Violence: Predictors of Risk Perceptions and Comparison to an Actuarial Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor-Smith, Jennifer K.; Henning, Kris; Moore, Stephanie; Holdford, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies support the validity of both structured risk assessment tools and victim perceptions as predictors of risk for repeat intimate partner violence (IPV). Combining structured risk assessments and victim risk assessments leads to better predictions of repeat violence than either alone, suggesting that the two forms of assessment provide…

  13. Risk Assessment of Girls : Are There Any Sex Differences in Risk Factors for Re-offending and in Risk Profiles?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, Claudia E.; Dekovic, Maja; Hoeve, Machteld; Stams, Geert Jan J. M.; van der Laan, Peter H.; Langewouters, Femke E. M.

    2014-01-01

    The aims of this study were (a) to investigate sex differences in risk factors for re-offending and (b) to provide a risk assessment model for girls. The data of 1,396 adolescents who committed a criminal offense were examined. Both generic and sex-specific risk factors for re-offending were found.

  14. Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

    2010-01-01

    NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

  15. A methodology for self-assessment of nuclear security risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urenco has developed a methodology for assessing the risks involved in running its uranium enrichment business. This methodology has been used to assess risks in a wide range of areas, for example: financial, commercial, logistics and projects. Recently, this methodology has been introduced for categorising and assessing nuclear security risks. The likelihood and magnitude of consequence of each risk is evaluated using a simple scoring system. A colour-coded chart is used to present a summary of the risk assessment to company management. Such a manner of displaying clearly the overall rating of security risks makes for an easy-to-use system, which shows clearly the importance of each nuclear risk as regards the successful operation of the business. This gives a good basis for deciding on the need for and focus of any action plan to improve nuclear security. This methodology could be utilised for a self assessment of nuclear security risks in any branch of the nuclear industry world-wide. (author)

  16. Generation risk assessment of main output transformers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The loss of large power transformers may have major implications for plant operation, performance, safety, and economics. This paper examines the generation risk associated with main output transformers (MOTs) at a large nuclear station using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. The developed methodology is used for spare inventory optimization and making transformer replacement projections, while taking into account the specific demographics and condition of the transformer population. The transformer reliability is described using a flexible, three parameter mixed Exponential/Weibull lifetime distribution. The results of the study indicate that, due to the long procurement time for large transformers, at least 1 or 2 spare transformers are needed immediately to minimize the risk to the station. Delaying the investment, even for a single year, would increase the risk significantly. (author)

  17. Moving and handling: reducing risk through assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Gemma

    2016-06-01

    Manual handling injuries can occur almost anywhere in a healthcare environment, and most staff perform a variety of moving and handling tasks every day. Heavy lifting, awkward posture, and previous or existing injury can increase the risk of musculoskeletal disorders. A healthcare professional's involvement in moving and handling is more widespread than it might appear, and their actions and understanding of techniques, legislation and guidelines have a direct effect on patient care. Every situation that involves the handling, or partial handling, of a person presents varying levels of risk to the patient and the carer. Maintaining a good level of patient mobility and independence is an essential part of care delivery and can reduce the risk of long-term physical and psychological effects. Delivery of care should focus on the individual's capacity, not their incapacity, to ensure that they are treated with dignity and respect. PMID:27275915

  18. Towards meaningful stakeholder comprehension of sour gas facility risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAuley, C.; Hrudey, S.E. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Public Health Sciences

    2006-01-15

    This study addressed public concerns in Alberta regarding the development of sour gas projects that are in close proximity to established populations. In particular, it focused on the reasoning of different perspectives of risk assessment between proponents of a sour gas development and the stakeholders affected. The main issues reviewed in this study were the toxicity of hydrogen sulphide and the toxic load models; the specifics of risk assessment and the risk estimation associated with pipeline failures; hazard distances associated with various end-points and set-back distances; the uncertainty that a pipeline failure will occur somewhere; a comparison of other risk scenarios where there are unknown exposure populations; risk management and risk issue management for pipeline failures; the evaluation of risk communication and validation of risk reduction measures and the issue of which risks could provide a useful basis for comparison in discussion about risk acceptability. It was noted that although zero risk is impossible, it was suggested that a better communication and understanding of the health affects of hydrogen sulphide and the toxic load concept in both public and regulatory forums would reduce uncertainty in health risk estimates associated with sour gas pipeline failures. 36 refs., 3 tabs.

  19. Risk assessment in risk-informed decision-making: Foundations, challenges, and approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Johansen, Inger Lise

    2014-01-01

    This PhD thesis clarifies foundational concepts and challenges in risk assessment and provides practical guidance for its performance and use in riskinformed decision-making (RIDM). The scope is delimited to engineering risk assessments of sociotechnical systems for informing strategic decisionmaking involving major accident risk to human, environmental, or material assets. Such decisions involve multiple objectives that must be balanced in light of information about the uncertainties and pot...

  20. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  1. Do pressure ulcer risk assessment scales improve clinical practice?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Kottner

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Jan Kottner1, Katrin Balzer21Department of Nursing Science, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; 2Nursing Research Group, Institute for Social Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, GermanyAbstract: Standardized assessment instruments are deemed important for estimating pressure ulcer risk. Today, more than 40 so-called pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are available but still there is an ongoing debate about their usefulness. From a measurement point of view pressure ulcer (PU risk assessment scales have serious limitations. Empirical evidence supporting the validity of PU risk assessment scale scores is weak and obtained scores contain varying amounts of measurement error. The concept of pressure ulcer risk is strongly related to the general health status and severity of illness. A clinical impact due do the application of these scales could also not be demonstrated. It is questionable whether completion of standardized pressure ulcer risk scales in clinical practice is really needed.Keywords: Braden pressure ulcer, prevention, risk assessment, nursing assessment, predictive value, clinical effectiveness, review

  2. Asset Identification for Security Risk Assessment in Web Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hisham M. Haddad

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available As software applications become more complex they require more security, allowing them to reach an appropriate level of quality to manage information, and therefore achieving business objectives. Web applications represent one segment of software industry where security risk assessment is essential. Web engineering must address new challenges to provide new techniques and tools that guarantee high quality application development. This work focuses asset identification, the initial step in security risk assessment for web applications. Risk assessment helps organizations determine security risks in information management systems. The formal approach to identifying information assets for risk assessment is investigated using the MAGERIT methodology and EBIOS method. This work is carried out at Sim?n Bolivar University (Venezuela for its Student Opinion Survey Coordination web-based application. Under this research, a methodological tool for asset identification was developed to help the University achieve security risk assessment. Assets are identified according to their priorities in the organizational environment. This work contributes to Web Engineering in general, and to Information Security Management with emphasis on security risk assessment.

  3. Quantitative security risk assessment of enterprise networks

    CERN Document Server

    Ou, Xinming

    2011-01-01

    Protection of enterprise networks from malicious intrusions is critical to the economy and security of our nation. This article gives an overview of the techniques and challenges for security risk analysis of enterprise networks. A standard model for security analysis will enable us to answer questions such as ""are we more secure than yesterday"" or ""how does the security of one network configuration compare with another one"". In this article, we will present a methodology for quantitative security risk analysis that is based on the model of attack graphs and the Common Vulnerability Scorin

  4. Risk assessment and nuclear insurance: an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the nascent years of commercial nuclear power, the insurance industry expressed confidence in the safety of nuclear operations by committing unprecedented insurance capacity to nuclear risks. As the nuclear industry has developed, it has compiled an enviable safety record. The initial confidence of the insurance industry has thus been justified and an ever-increasing portion of the financial liability associated with nuclear operations has been accepted by the world-wide insurance markets. This increasing acceptance and understanding of nuclear risks by the insurance industry has resulted in significantly reduced rates and large premium refunds for nuclear operators

  5. Department of Risk Assessment and Environment Protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Group of Nuclear Safety Analysis is concerned with the development and application of numerical methods and programs in reactor physics. The development work was primarily concentrated on the WIMS Library Update Project, co-ordinated by IAEA. Under the project the WIMSD-SB version of WIMS was developed capable of 172 group library treatment The work has been continued on the physical analysis of the MARIA reactor core, notably calculations of poisoning of beryllium matrix of the MARIA reactor. The 2D distribution of He-3 and Li-6 poisoning in all beryllium blocks has been evaluated for the end of year 2000. The group participates in the programme: Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors co-ordinated by the Argonne National Laboratory, USA. Group of Safety Analysis for Industrial Installations is concerned with the assessment and management of major accident risk from industrial installations and industrial areas. The activities of the Group include: development of methods, guidelines, stand alone computer codes and real time computer aided emergency decision support system for complex technical systems (nuclear power plants, chemical process installations, etc.); models for pollutant transport in the atmosphere, water bodies, soil and food chains; fluid dynamics modelling of air and water media and dedicated numerical weather prediction systems with emphasis on application to analyses of nuclear and chemical installations behaviour and to environmental impact assessment problems under major accident conditions. The group cooperates with Polish chemical factories, research institutes in Europe and the US and with the EU and OECD working groups concerned with the protection against chemical accidents. In 2001 within the 5-th Framework Programme of the EU the Group participated in the research project ENSEMBLE and thematic network DSSNET both related to improvement of the EU real time on-line decision support system in case of nuclear emergency

  6. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  7. Establishing a family risk assessment clinic for breast cancer.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Mulsow, Jurgen

    2012-02-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting European women and the leading cause of cancer-related death. A total of 15-20% of women who develop breast cancer have a family history and 5-10% a true genetic predisposition. The identification and screening of women at increased risk may allow early detection of breast cancer and improve prognosis. We established a family risk assessment clinic in May 2005 to assess and counsel women with a family history of breast cancer, to initiate surveillance, and to offer risk-reducing strategies for selected high-risk patients. Patients at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer according to NICE guidelines were accepted. Family history was determined by structured questionnaire and interview. Lifetime risk of developing breast cancer was calculated using Claus and Tyrer-Cuzick scoring. Risk of carrying a breast cancer-related gene mutation was calculated using the Manchester system. One thousand two hundred and forty-three patients have been referred. Ninety-two percent were at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer. Formal assessment of risk has been performed in 368 patients, 73% have a high lifetime risk of developing breast cancer, and 72% a Manchester score >or=16. BRCA1\\/2 mutations have been identified in 14 patients and breast cancer diagnosed in two. Our initial experience of family risk assessment has shown there to be a significant demand for this service. Identification of patients at increased risk of developing breast cancer allows us to provide individuals with accurate risk profiles, and enables patients to make informed choices regarding their follow-up and management.

  8. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruno, Michael [Geomechanics Technologies, Incorporated, Monrovia, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  9. Clean Slate transportation and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Public concern regarding activities involving radioactive material generally focuses on the human health risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. This report describes the results of a risk analysis conducted to evaluate risk for excavation, handling, and transport of soil contaminated with transuranics at the Clean Slate sites. Transportation risks were estimated for public transport routes from the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) to the Envirocore disposal facility or to the Area 3 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for both radiological risk and risk due to traffic accidents. Human health risks were evaluated for occupational and radiation-related health effects to workers. This report was generated to respond to this public concern, to provide an evaluation of the risk, and to assess feasibility of transport of the contaminated soil for disposal

  10. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: ► A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. ► An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. ► An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. ► An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. ► The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  11. Emerging arboviruses and public health challenges in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima-Camara, Tamara Nunes

    2016-06-27

    Environmental modification by anthropogenic actions, disordered urban growth, globalization of international exchange and climate change are some factors that help the emergence and dissemination of human infectious diseases transmitted by vectors. This review discusses the recent entry of three arboviruses in Brazil: Chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus, focusing on the challenges for the Country's public health. The Brazilian population is exposed to infections caused by these three arboviruses widely distributed on the national territory and associated with humans. Without effective vaccine and specific treatment, the maintainance and integration of a continuos entomological and epidemiological surveillance are important so we can set methods to control and prevent these arboviruses in the Country. RESUMO A modificação do ambiente por ações antrópicas, o crescimento urbano desordenado, o processo de globalização do intercâmbio internacional e as mudanças climáticas são alguns fatores que vêm facilitando a emergência e disseminação de doenças infecciosas humanas transmitidas por vetores. Este comentário aborda a recente entrada de três arbovírus no Brasil, Chikungunya (CHIKV), West Nile (WNV) e Zika (ZIKV), com enfoque nos desafios para a Saúde Pública do País. Transmitidos por mosquitos vetores amplamente distribuídos no território nacional e associados ao homem, a população brasileira encontra-se exposta à infecção por esses três arbovírus. Na ausência de vacina eficaz e tratamento específico, são importantes a manutenção e integração de uma vigilância entomológica e epidemiológica contínua, a fim de direcionarmos métodos de controle e prevenção contra essas arboviroses no País. PMID:27355468

  12. Emerging arboviruses and public health challenges in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima-Camara, Tamara Nunes

    2016-06-27

    Environmental modification by anthropogenic actions, disordered urban growth, globalization of international exchange and climate change are some factors that help the emergence and dissemination of human infectious diseases transmitted by vectors. This review discusses the recent entry of three arboviruses in Brazil: Chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus, focusing on the challenges for the Country's public health. The Brazilian population is exposed to infections caused by these three arboviruses widely distributed on the national territory and associated with humans. Without effective vaccine and specific treatment, the maintainance and integration of a continuos entomological and epidemiological surveillance are important so we can set methods to control and prevent these arboviruses in the Country. RESUMO A modificação do ambiente por ações antrópicas, o crescimento urbano desordenado, o processo de globalização do intercâmbio internacional e as mudanças climáticas são alguns fatores que vêm facilitando a emergência e disseminação de doenças infecciosas humanas transmitidas por vetores. Este comentário aborda a recente entrada de três arbovírus no Brasil, Chikungunya (CHIKV), West Nile (WNV) e Zika (ZIKV), com enfoque nos desafios para a Saúde Pública do País. Transmitidos por mosquitos vetores amplamente distribuídos no território nacional e associados ao homem, a população brasileira encontra-se exposta à infecção por esses três arbovírus. Na ausência de vacina eficaz e tratamento específico, são importantes a manutenção e integração de uma vigilância entomológica e epidemiológica contínua, a fim de direcionarmos métodos de controle e prevenção contra essas arboviroses no País.

  13. Human health and ecological risk assessment of soil-borne arsenic and lead: A site-specific risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roy, M.; Epp, G.A.; Beukema, P. [Proctor and Redfern Ltd., Don Mills, Ontario (Canada); Nieboer, E. [McMaster Univ., Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)

    1997-12-31

    Screening level site specific human health and ecological risk assessments (ERA) were conducted at a historical (1908--1921) smelting and refining site in the Niagara Region, Ontario in accordance with the recently released provincial and federal risk assessment guidelines. The purpose of the assessment was to evaluate the risk associated with elevated levels of arsenic and lead in surface soils, and to assess alternative remediation options, prior to property transfer. Future intended land use will be parkland and for the site to remain forested. The identification of potential receptors, exposure pathways, and end-points was conducted at the biological community-level. The ERA involved a toxic cue inventory of the core smelting and refining site, adjacent lands and a reference site. Development of remediation options was based on hazard assessment and the prediction of risks associated with arsenic contamination. An evaluation of remediation options and the selection of a preferred option are discussed.

  14. Youth Risk Assessment in Complex Agency Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groner, Mark R.; Solomon, Jean

    2007-01-01

    Advancements in the delivery of community-based services and tight utilization management of high-cost treatment options result in youths with serious behavior problems receiving intervention in lower levels of care than was true ten or fifteen years ago. This shift in where services tend to be delivered necessitates enhancement of risk assessment…

  15. Fiscal Disaster Risk Assessment Options for Consideration

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group; Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

    2015-01-01

    Pakistan is vulnerable to a number of adverse natural events and has experienced a wide range of disasters over the past 40 years, including floods, earthquakes, droughts, cyclones, and tsunamis. The World Bank is supporting the Government of Pakistan (GoP) in building capacity in the area of disaster risk management (DRM) in order to build resilience from both humanitarian and fiscal shoc...

  16. Social risk assessment of large technical systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pasman, H.J.; Vrijling, J.K.

    2003-01-01

    A probabilistic approach to engineering advances. Since risk adhering to a technical structure can be determined quantitatively easier and more accurately than before, criteria for decision making are becoming more important. If the structure is in the public domain, and benefits are not felt, the v

  17. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinic...

  18. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947

  19. Uncertainties associated with assessing the public health risk from Legionella

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet eWhiley

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Legionella is an opportunistic pathogen of public health concern. Current regulatory and management guidelines for the control of this organism are informed by risk assessments. However, there are many unanswered questions and uncertainties regarding Legionella epidemiology, strain infectivity, infectious dose and detection methods. This review follows the EnHealth Risk Assessment Framework, to examine the current information available regarding Legionella risk and discuss the uncertainties and assumptions. This review can be used as a tool for understanding the uncertainties associated with Legionella risk assessment. It also serves to highlight the areas of Legionella research that require future focus. Improvement of these uncertainties will provide information to enhance risk management practises for Legionella, potentially improving public health protection and reducing the economic costs by streamlining current management practises.

  20. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  1. Cryogenic Risk Assessments before Works in the LHC Tunnel

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Tests conducted in 2013/4 demonstrated that a small, residual risk to expose personnel to a helium spill exists in the LHC. Helium spills with a mass flow of less than 100 g s^-1 could be caused by workers accidentally damaging sensitive equipment in the cryogenic distribution system, such as instrumentation feedthroughs. In order to control this risk, a cryogenic risk assessment for all works taking place in the vicinity of such sensitive equipment is mandatory. The risk assessment and its recommendations are approved by the hierarchy and the complex manager before work can start. After introducing the risk assessment procedure, I will give some feedback on its implementation and present status.

  2. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Sun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  3. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947

  4. Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management, Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Desai, B; Maskrey, A.; Peduzzi, Pascal; De Bono, Andréa; Herold, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR15), Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management, is the fourth in the series coordinated by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) in the context of the Hyogo Frame - work for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA). This report includes new results regarding the identification of disaster risk. It features a new global characteri...

  5. Breast cancer risk assessment using genetic variants and risk factors in a Singapore Chinese population

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Charmaine Pei Ling; Irwanto, Astrid; Salim, Agus; Yuan, Jian-Min; Liu, Jianjun; Koh, Woon Puay; Hartman, Mikael

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Genetic variants for breast cancer risk identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in Western populations require further testing in Asian populations. A risk assessment model incorporating both validated genetic variants and established risk factors may improve its performance in risk prediction of Asian women. Methods A nested case-control study of female breast cancer (411 cases and 1,212 controls) within the Singapore Chinese Health Study was conducted to investigat...

  6. An Integrated Risk Assessment Tool to Evaluate the Existing Risk Managment System Within a Health Care Facility

    OpenAIRE

    Breen, Laura F., (Thesis)

    2001-01-01

    Risk assessment is a method used to identify risks within an organisation. It is required by the Safety Health and Welfare at Work Act, 189 for the purpose of safety management. No one method can effectively identify all types of hazard and risks within organisations. The insufficiency of individual risk assessment techniques to generate objective data as to the level of risk, is now generally accepted as an issue in risk management. Therefore, a combination of risk assessment techniques, bes...

  7. Understanding the system in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Craft, R.; Vandewart, R.; Wyss, G.; Funkhouser, D.

    1998-02-01

    In the assessment of a system, understanding the system is central. Even so, most of the current literature takes a narrow view of understanding, making only the catalog of system ``assets`` explicit, while maintaining the balance of the analyst`s understanding inside the analyst`s head. This can lead to problems with non-repeatability and incompleteness of assessment results. This paper introduces the notion of using explicit system models to document the analyst`s understanding of the system and shows that, from these models, standard assessment products, such as fault trees and event trees, can be automatically derived. This paper also presents five ``views`` of a system that can be used to document the analyst`s understanding of the system. These views go well beyond the standard instruction to identify the system`s assets to show that a much richer understanding of the system can be required for effective assessment.

  8. Risk assessment and emerging chemicals hazards in foods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umberto Moscato

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The main beliefs relating to the risk assessment of chemicals in foods, new chemicals in raw material as well as in food processing are briefly presented. Evaluation reviews of representative chemicals found in traditional and novel foods are given. Old and new processes or newly recognized compounds, that require careful assessment in terms of their potential human health impact, are discussed. As example of processing-related contaminants, a risk assessment for acrylamide, is described, providing two different approaches in food safety assessment and the management of carcinogenic contaminants.

  9. Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

  10. Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment Additivity-Based Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powerpoint presentation includes additivity-based chemical mixture risk assessment methods. Basic concepts, theory and example calculations are included. Several slides discuss the use of "common adverse outcomes" in analyzing phthalate mixtures.

  11. Systematic Suicide Risk Assessment for Patients With Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjørup Pedersen, Charlotte; Wallenstein Jensen, Signe Olrik; Gradus, Jaimie;

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Systematic suicide risk assessment is recommended for patients with schizophrenia; however, little is known about the implementation of suicide risk assessment in routine clinical practice. The study aimed to determine the use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge...... and predictors of suicide attempt among hospitalized patients with schizophrenia in Denmark. Methods: A one-year follow-up study was conducted of 9,745 patients with schizophrenia who were discharged from psychiatric wards and registered in a national population-based schizophrenia registry between 2005 and 2009....... Results: The proportion of patients receiving suicide risk assessment at discharge from a psychiatric ward increased from 72% (95% confidence interval [CI]=71%-74%) in 2005, when the national monitoring began, to 89% (CI.89%-90%) in 2009. Within one year after discharge, 1% of all registered patients had...

  12. A comparison of risk assessments on Campylobacter in broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten; Hill, Andy; Rosenquist, Hanne;

    2009-01-01

    In recent years. several quantitative risk assessments for Campylobacter in broiler meat have been developed to support risk managers in controlling this pathogen. The models encompass some or all of the consecutive stages in the broiler meat production chain: primary production, industrial...... processing, consumer food preparation,and the close-response relationship. The modelling approaches vary between the models, and this has supported the progress of risk assessment as a research discipline. The risk assessments are not only used to assess the human incidence of campylobacteriosis due...... to contaminated broiler meat, but more importantly for analyses of the effects of control measures at different stages in the broiler meat production chain. This review paper provides a comparative overview of models developed in the United Kingdom, Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany, and aims to identify...

  13. Evaluating the risk of child abuse: the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, KL

    2011-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child abuse and some theoretically or empirically tested factors associated with child abuse. Using the split-half validation procedure, the 5-factor, 64-it...

  14. A Brief Assessment for HIV Risk: The TCU HVHP Form

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowan, Grace A.; Joe, George W.; Lehman, Wayne E. K.; Knight, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Targeted HIV screens may help identify some risk-related concerns of drug-using offenders. The present study describes the Texas Christian University HIV/Hepatitis Risk Assessment (TCU HVHP) form, a 19-item self-report instrument measuring HIV and hepatitis risks based on a sample (N = 1,056) of offenders in eight prisons. Principal components analysis indicated four scales (Injection Risk, Condom Attitudes, Sex Risk, and AIDS Concern) with reliable psychometric properties with coefficient α reliabilities ranging from .72 to .88. Concurrent validities indicated the four scales were related to motivation for treatment, level of drug use, psychosocial functioning, and criminal thinking, although the patterns varied by gender. The TCU HVHP Form should be attractive to programs needing a brief assessment measuring HIV risk behaviors, attitudes toward condom use, and concerns about acquiring and transmitting HIV. PMID:27302708

  15. Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southern China

    OpenAIRE

    Zhi-Lan Wang; Jing Wang; Jin-Song Wang

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment of drought disaster is necessary for the sustained agriculture development under the background of global climate change, and, meanwhile, it is an urgent scientific issue needed to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. In this paper, collecting the areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data, agricultural drought disasters losses of the southern ...

  16. Genetic Assessment of Breast Cancer Risk in Primary Care Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Burke, Wylie; Culver, Julie; Pinsky, Linda; Hall, Sarah; Reynolds, Susan E; Yasui, Yutaka; Press, Nancy

    2009-01-01

    Family history is increasingly important in primary care as a means to detect candidates for genetic testing or tailored prevention programs. We evaluated primary care physicians’ skills in assessing family history for breast cancer risk, using unannounced standardized patient visits to 86 general internists and family medicine practitioners in King County, WA. Transcripts of clinical encounters were coded to determine ascertainment of family history, risk assessment, and clinical follow-up. ...

  17. Do pressure ulcer risk assessment scales improve clinical practice?

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Kottner; Katrin Balzer

    2010-01-01

    Jan Kottner1, Katrin Balzer21Department of Nursing Science, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; 2Nursing Research Group, Institute for Social Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, GermanyAbstract: Standardized assessment instruments are deemed important for estimating pressure ulcer risk. Today, more than 40 so-called pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are available but still there is an ongoing debate about their usefulne...

  18. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  19. A New Method to Assess Telecom Service Availability Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Vriezekolk, E Eelco; Wieringa, RJ; Etalle, S Sandro

    2011-01-01

    Protection of society against natural and man-made disasters is high on the societal and political agenda. Effective crisis management is more important than ever. Nowadays, crisis organisations depend crucially on reliable telecom services, and unexpected failure of telecommunication may have serious consequences. In order not to be caught unprepared, crisis organisations should therefore perform a risk assessment on telecom availability. Unfortunately, assessment of availability risks of mo...

  20. Decision Suport System for flood risk assessment and management

    OpenAIRE

    Bladé i Castellet, Ernest; Gómez Valentín, Manuel; Dolz Ripollès, Josep; Oñate Ibáñez de Navarra, Eugenio; Piazzese, J; Corestein Poupeau, Georgina

    2006-01-01

    A new decision support system (DSS) for the risk assessment and management of emergency scenarios due to severe floods was created. The DSS combines environmental and geo-physical data from earth observation, with advanced computer simulation, graphical visualisation methods and artificial intelligence techniques, for generating useful knowledge contributing to the flood risk assessment and prevention of floods. The aim of the RAMFLOOD project is to develop a new DSS to assist public ad...

  1. Network Security Risk Assessment Based on Item Response Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Fangwei Li; Qing Huang; Jiang Zhu; Zhuxun Peng

    2015-01-01

    Owing to the traditional risk assessment method has one-sidedness and is difficult to reflect the real network situation, a risk assessment method based on Item Response Theory (IRT) is put forward in network security. First of all, the novel algorithms of calculating the threat of attack and the successful probability of attack are proposed by the combination of IRT model and Service Security Level. Secondly, the service weight of importance is calculated by the three-demarcation analytic hi...

  2. Technology Innovation Enabling Falls Risk Assessment in a Community Setting

    OpenAIRE

    Ni Scanaill, Cliodhna; Garattini, Chiara; Greene, Barry R; McGrath, Michael J

    2010-01-01

    Approximately one in three people over the age of 65 will fall each year, resulting in significant financial, physical, and emotional cost on the individual, their family, and society. Currently, falls are managed using on-body sensors and alarm pendants to notify others when a falls event occurs. However these technologies do not prevent a fall from occurring. There is now a growing focus on falls risk assessment and preventative interventions. Falls risk is currently assessed in a clinical ...

  3. Economic Risk Assessment using the Fractal Market Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Blackledge, Jonathan; Rebow, Marek

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the Fractal Market Hypothesi (FMH) for assessing the risk(s) in developing a financial portfolio based on data that is available through the Internet from an increasing number of sources. Most financial risk management systems are still based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis which often fails due to the inaccuracies of the statistical models that underpin the hypothesis, in particular, that financial data are based on stationary Gaussian processes. The FMH considered in...

  4. Biologic markers in risk assessment for environmental carcinogens

    OpenAIRE

    Perera, F.; Mayer, J.; Santella, R. M.; Brenner, D; Jeffrey, A.; Latriano, L; Smith, S.; Warburton, D; Young, T. L.; Tsai, W. Y.; Hemminki, K; Brandt-Rauf, P

    1991-01-01

    The potential of biologic markers to provide more timely and precise risk assessments for environmental carcinogens is viewed against the current state-of-the-art in biological monitoring/molecular epidemiology. Biologic markers such as carcinogen-DNA adducts and oncogene activation are currently considered valid qualitative indicators of potential risk, but for most chemical exposures research is needed to establish their validity as quantitative predictors of cancer risk. Biologic markers h...

  5. Capacity development for participatory disaster risk assessment 

    OpenAIRE

    12620394 - Van Niekerk, Dewald; 20652739 - Van Riet, Gideon

    2012-01-01

    In this paper a large-scale community-based disaster risk-assessment project, undertaken in the Dr Kenneth Kaunda District Municipality in the North-West Province of South Africa, is evaluated. In contrast to other disaster risk management consultancy projects in South Africa, this project included a significant skills transfer component to the at-risk communities and local government officials. In this evaluation, the authors draw on their own experiences in implementing this and similar pro...

  6. Ecological risk assessment of boreal sediments affected by metal mining: Metal geochemistry, seasonality, and comparison of several risk assessment methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Väänänen, Kristiina; Kauppila, Tommi; Mäkinen, Jari; Leppänen, Matti T; Lyytikäinen, Merja; Akkanen, Jarkko

    2016-10-01

    The mining industry is a common source of environmental metal emissions, which cause long-lasting effects in aquatic ecosystems. Metal risk assessment is challenging due to variations in metal distribution, speciation, and bioavailability. Therefore, seasonal effects must be better understood, especially in boreal regions in which seasonal changes are large. We sampled 4 Finnish lakes and sediments affected by mining for metals and geochemical characteristics in autumn and late winter, to evaluate seasonal changes in metal behavior, the importance of seasonality in risk assessment, and the sensitivity and suitability of different risk assessment methods. We compared metal concentrations in sediment, overlying water, and porewater against environmental quality guidelines (EQGs). We also evaluated the toxicity of metal mixtures using simultaneously extracted metals and an acid volatile sulfides (SEM-AVS) approach together with water quality criteria (US Environmental Protection Agency equilibrium partitioning benchmarks). Finally, site-specific risks for 3 metals (Cu, Ni, Zn) were assessed using 2 biotic ligand models (BLMs). The metal concentrations in the impacted lakes were elevated. During winter stratification, the hypolimnetic O2 saturation levels were low (89%) and neutral pH (6.1-7.5) were found after the autumnal water overturn. Guidelines were the most conservative benchmark for showing an increased risk of toxicity in the all of the lakes. The situation remained stable between seasons. On the other hand, SEM-AVS, equilibrium partition sediment benchmarks (ESBs), and BLMs provided a clearer distinction between lakes and revealed a seasonal variation in risk among some of the lakes, which evidenced a higher risk during late winter. If a sediment risk assessment is based on the situation in the autumn, the overall risk may be underestimated. It is advisable to carry out sampling and risk assessment during periods in which metals are assumed to be the most

  7. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  8. Sexual Risk Assessment for People with Intellectual Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Embregts, P.; van den Bogaard, K.; Hendriks, L.; Heestermans, M.; Schuitemaker, M.; van Wouwe, H.

    2010-01-01

    Given that sexually offensive behavior on the part of people with intellectual disabilities has been identified as a significant problem, we developed a risk assessment questionnaire, that takes not only various static and dynamic factors into account but also environmental risk variables. Psychologists and staff members completed this Risk…

  9. Bigheaded carps : a biological synopsis and environmental risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolar, Cindy S.; Chapman, Duane C.; Courtenay, Walter R., Jr.; Housel, Christine M.; Williams, James D.; Jennings, Dawn P.

    2007-01-01

    The book is a detailed risk assessment and biological synopsis of the bigheaded carps of the genus Hypophthalmichthys, which includes the bighead, silver, and largescale silver carps. It summarizes the scientific literature describing their biology, ecology, uses, ecological effects, and risks to the environment.

  10. Visual Exploration of Classification Models for Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Migut; M. Worring

    2010-01-01

    In risk assessment applications well informed decisions are made based on huge amounts of multi-dimensional data. In many domains not only the risk of a wrong decision, but in particular the trade-off between the costs of possible decisions are of utmost importance. In this paper we describe a frame

  11. Confidence and Professional Judgment in Assessing Children's Risk of Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regehr, Cheryl; Bogo, Marion; Shlonsky, Aron; LeBlanc, Vicki

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Child welfare agencies have moved toward standardized risk assessment measures to improve the reliability with which child's risk of abuse is predicted. Nevertheless, these tools require a degree of subjective judgment. Research to date has not substantially investigated the influence of specific context and worker characteristics on…

  12. Assessment of accident risks in the CRBRP. Volume 2. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-03-01

    Appendices to Volume I include core-related accident-sequence definition, CRBRP risk-assessment sequence-probability determinations, failure-probability data, accident scenario evaluation, radioactive material release analysis, ex-core accident analysis, safety philosophy and design features, calculation of reactor accident consequences, sensitivity study, and risk from fires.

  13. An Evaluation of Transplacental Carcinogenesis for Human Health Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk assessments take into account the sensitivity of the postnatal period to carcinogens through the application of age-dependent adjustment factors (ADAFs) (Barton et al. 2005). The prenatal period is also recognized to be sensitive but is typically not included into risk asse...

  14. IT Confidentiality Risk Assessment for an Architecture-Based Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, Ayse; Zambon, Emmanuele; Etalle, Sandro; Overbeek, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Information systems require awareness of risks and a good understanding of vulnerabilities and their exploitations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the systematic assessment and analysis of confidentiality risks caused by disclosure of operational and functional information. The appro

  15. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  16. Experiences in risk assessments of human behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A method is introduced for the probabilistic safety analysis of procedures. A case-study is performed in which the applicability of the method to six procedures as applied in an industrial installation is investigated. The study shows that probabilistic techniques can be used to make a funded choice among alternative man-machine designs. The results of the case-study reveal a linear relationship between the probability of, and risk due to, errors of omission and commission for different procedures; it implies that, under certain circumstances, it may be possible to predict risk due to errors of commission (errors of which the consequences are difficult to analyze) from the error of omission. (author)

  17. Early interactions during the encounter of plants, aphids and arboviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bak, Aurélie; Martinière, Alexandre; Blanc, Stéphane; Drucker, Martin

    2013-06-01

    Aphids infest many plants and cause damage by depriving them of nutrients and by transmitting many viral diseases. Aphid infestation and arbovirus transmission are controlled by establishment (or not) of a compatible reaction between the insects and the plants. This reaction is the result of defense reactions of the plant and counter-defense reactions of the parasite. Contrarily to plant-bacteria, plant-fungi and plant-herbivorous insects pathosystems, the plant-aphid pathosystem is understudied, although recent advances have begun to uncover some of its details. Especially the very early steps in plant-aphid interactions are hardly known. We here resume the present knowledge of these interactions. We discuss further how an aphid-transmitted plant virus that is transmitted during the first moments of the plant-aphid encounter, might help to study the very early plant aphid interactions.

  18. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    OpenAIRE

    Vladimir Vikulov; Andrey Butrin

    2014-01-01

    Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain R...

  19. Spatial models for flood risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bee, Marco; Benedetti, Roberto; Espa, Giuseppe

    2007-01-01

    The problem of computing risk measures associated to flood events is extremely important not only from the point of view of civil protection systems but also because of the necessity for the municipalities of insuring against the damages. In this work we propose, in the framework of an integrated strategy, an operating solution which merges in a conditional approach the information usually available in this setup. First we use a Logistic Auto-Logistic (LAM) model for the estimation of the uni...

  20. Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)