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Sample records for applying bayesian neural

  1. Applying Bayesian neural networks to identify pion, kaon and proton in BES Ⅱ

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ye; HOU Jian; ZHU Kai-En

    2008-01-01

    The Monte-Carlo samples of pion, kaon and proton generated from 0.3 GeV/c to 1.2 GeV/c by the 'tester' generator from SIMBES which are used to simulate the detector of BES Ⅱ are identified with the Bayesian neural networks (BNN). The pion identification and misidentification efficiencies are obviously better at high momentum region using BNN than the methods of X2 analysis of dE/dX and TOF information.The kaon identification and misidentification efficiencies are obviously better from 0.3 GeV/c to 1.2 GeV/c using BNN than the methods of X2 analysis. The proton identification and misidentification efficiencies using BNN are basically consistent with the ones of X2 analysis. The anti-proton identification and misidentification efficiencies are better below 0.6 GeV/c using BNN than the methods of X2 analysis.

  2. Classification using Bayesian neural nets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. Bioch (Cor); O. van der Meer; R. Potharst (Rob)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractRecently, Bayesian methods have been proposed for neural networks to solve regression and classification problems. These methods claim to overcome some difficulties encountered in the standard approach such as overfitting. However, an implementation of the full Bayesian approach to neura

  3. Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter D

    2010-01-01

    Bayesian methods facilitate the analysis of complex models and data structures. Emphasizing data applications, alternative modeling specifications, and computer implementation, this book provides a practical overview of methods for Bayesian analysis of hierarchical models.

  4. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  5. Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

    2016-02-01

    A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

  6. An Overview of Bayesian Methods for Neural Spike Train Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Neural spike train analysis is an important task in computational neuroscience which aims to understand neural mechanisms and gain insights into neural circuits. With the advancement of multielectrode recording and imaging technologies, it has become increasingly demanding to develop statistical tools for analyzing large neuronal ensemble spike activity. Here we present a tutorial overview of Bayesian methods and their representative applications in neural spike train analysis, at both single neuron and population levels. On the theoretical side, we focus on various approximate Bayesian inference techniques as applied to latent state and parameter estimation. On the application side, the topics include spike sorting, tuning curve estimation, neural encoding and decoding, deconvolution of spike trains from calcium imaging signals, and inference of neuronal functional connectivity and synchrony. Some research challenges and opportunities for neural spike train analysis are discussed.

  7. Neural network classification - A Bayesian interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Eric A.

    1990-01-01

    The relationship between minimizing a mean squared error and finding the optimal Bayesian classifier is reviewed. This provides a theoretical interpretation for the process by which neural networks are used in classification. A number of confidence measures are proposed to evaluate the performance of the neural network classifier within a statistical framework.

  8. Information flow among neural networks with Bayesian estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yan; LI XiaoLi; OUYANG GaoXiang; GUAN XinPing

    2007-01-01

    Estimating the interaction among neural networks is an interesting issue in neuroscience. Some methods have been proposed to estimate the coupling strength among neural networks; however, few estimations of the coupling direction (information flow) among neural networks have been attempted. It is known that Bayesian estimator is based on a priori knowledge and a probability of event occurrence. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate coupling directions among neural networks with conditional mutual information that is estimated by Bayesian estimation. First, this method is applied to analyze the simulated EEG series generated by a nonlinear lumped-parameter model. In comparison with the conditional mutual information with Shannon entropy, it is found that this method is more successful in estimating the coupling direction, and is insensitive to the length of EEG series. Therefore, this method is suitable to analyze a short time series in practice. Second, we demonstrate how this method can be applied to the analysis of human intracranial epileptic electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, and to indicate the coupling directions among neural networks. Therefore, this method helps to elucidate the epileptic focus localization.

  9. Bayesian and neural networks for preliminary ship design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, H. B.; Lützen, Marie; Friis-Hansen, Andreas

    2001-01-01

    000 ships is acquired and various methods for derivation of empirical relations are employed. A regression analysis is carried out to fit functions to the data. Further, the data are used to learn Bayesian and neural networks to encode the relations between the characteristics. On the basis...

  10. Nuclear charge radii: Density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

    CERN Document Server

    Utama, Raditya; Piekarewicz, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. We explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonst...

  11. Using Bayesian neural networks to classify forest scenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vehtari, Aki; Heikkonen, Jukka; Lampinen, Jouko; Juujarvi, Jouni

    1998-10-01

    We present results that compare the performance of Bayesian learning methods for neural networks on the task of classifying forest scenes into trees and background. Classification task is demanding due to the texture richness of the trees, occlusions of the forest scene objects and diverse lighting conditions under operation. This makes it difficult to determine which are optimal image features for the classification. A natural way to proceed is to extract many different types of potentially suitable features, and to evaluate their usefulness in later processing stages. One approach to cope with large number of features is to use Bayesian methods to control the model complexity. Bayesian learning uses a prior on model parameters, combines this with evidence from a training data, and the integrates over the resulting posterior to make predictions. With this method, we can use large networks and many features without fear of overfitting. For this classification task we compare two Bayesian learning methods for multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks: (1) The evidence framework of MacKay uses a Gaussian approximation to the posterior weight distribution and maximizes with respect to hyperparameters. (2) In a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method due to Neal, the posterior distribution of the network parameters is numerically integrated using the MCMC method. As baseline classifiers for comparison we use (3) MLP early stop committee, (4) K-nearest-neighbor and (5) Classification And Regression Tree.

  12. Introduction to applied Bayesian statistics and estimation for social scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Lynch, Scott M

    2007-01-01

    ""Introduction to Applied Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists"" covers the complete process of Bayesian statistical analysis in great detail from the development of a model through the process of making statistical inference. The key feature of this book is that it covers models that are most commonly used in social science research - including the linear regression model, generalized linear models, hierarchical models, and multivariate regression models - and it thoroughly develops each real-data example in painstaking detail.The first part of the book provides a detailed

  13. Recursive Bayesian recurrent neural networks for time-series modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirikitani, Derrick T; Nikolaev, Nikolay

    2010-02-01

    This paper develops a probabilistic approach to recursive second-order training of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for improved time-series modeling. A general recursive Bayesian Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is derived to sequentially update the weights and the covariance (Hessian) matrix. The main strengths of the approach are a principled handling of the regularization hyperparameters that leads to better generalization, and stable numerical performance. The framework involves the adaptation of a noise hyperparameter and local weight prior hyperparameters, which represent the noise in the data and the uncertainties in the model parameters. Experimental investigations using artificial and real-world data sets show that RNNs equipped with the proposed approach outperform standard real-time recurrent learning and extended Kalman training algorithms for recurrent networks, as well as other contemporary nonlinear neural models, on time-series modeling.

  14. Nuclear charge radii: density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utama, R.; Chen, Wei-Chia; Piekarewicz, J.

    2016-11-01

    The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. The aim of this study is to explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonstrated the ability of the BNN approach to significantly increase the accuracy of nuclear models in the predictions of nuclear charge radii. However, as many before us, we failed to uncover the underlying physics behind the intriguing behavior of charge radii along the calcium isotopic chain.

  15. D-optimal Bayesian Interrogation for Parameter and Noise Identification of Recurrent Neural Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Poczos, Barnabas

    2008-01-01

    We introduce a novel online Bayesian method for the identification of a family of noisy recurrent neural networks (RNNs). We develop Bayesian active learning technique in order to optimize the interrogating stimuli given past experiences. In particular, we consider the unknown parameters as stochastic variables and use the D-optimality principle, also known as `\\emph{infomax method}', to choose optimal stimuli. We apply a greedy technique to maximize the information gain concerning network parameters at each time step. We also derive the D-optimal estimation of the additive noise that perturbs the dynamical system of the RNN. Our analytical results are approximation-free. The analytic derivation gives rise to attractive quadratic update rules.

  16. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, Michael S.

    2011-01-01

    Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

  17. A Bayesian regularized artificial neural network for adaptive optics forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhi; Chen, Ying; Li, Xinyang; Qin, Xiaolin; Wang, Huiyong

    2017-01-01

    Real-time adaptive optics is a technology for enhancing the resolution of ground-based optical telescopes and overcoming the disturbance of atmospheric turbulence. The performance of the system is limited by delay errors induced by the servo system and photoelectrons noise of wavefront sensor. In order to cut these delay errors, this paper proposes a novel model to forecast the future control voltages of the deformable mirror. The predictive model is constructed by a multi-layered back propagation network with Bayesian regularization (BRBP). For the purpose of parallel computation and less disturbance, we adopt a number of sub-BP neural networks to substitute the whole network. The Bayesian regularized network assigns a probability to the network weights, allowing the network to automatically and optimally penalize excessively complex models. The simulation results show that the BRBP introduces smaller mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square errors (MSE) than other typical algorithms. Meanwhile, real data analysis results show that the BRBP model has strong generalization capability and parallelism.

  18. A novel Bayesian learning method for information aggregation in modular neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Pan; Xu, Lida; Zhou, Shang-Ming;

    2010-01-01

    Modular neural network is a popular neural network model which has many successful applications. In this paper, a sequential Bayesian learning (SBL) is proposed for modular neural networks aiming at efficiently aggregating the outputs of members of the ensemble. The experimental results on eight ...

  19. Evidence for single top quark production using Bayesian neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kau, Daekwang [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2007-01-01

    We present results of a search for single top quark production in p$\\bar{p}$ collisions using a dataset of approximately 1 fb-1 collected with the D0 detector. This analysis considers the muon+jets and electron+jets final states and makes use of Bayesian neural networks to separate the expected signals from backgrounds. The observed excess is associated with a p-value of 0.081%, assuming the background-only hypothesis, which corresponds to an excess over background of 3.2 standard deviations for a Gaussian density. The p-value computed using the SM signal cross section of 2.9 pb is 1.6%, corresponding to an expected significance of 2.2 standard deviations. Assuming the observed excess is due to single top production, we measure a single top quark production cross section of σ(p$\\bar{p}$ → tb + X, tqb + X) = 4.4 ± 1.5 pb.

  20. Recognizing recurrent neural networks (rRNN): Bayesian inference for recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2012-07-01

    Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are widely used in computational neuroscience and machine learning applications. In an RNN, each neuron computes its output as a nonlinear function of its integrated input. While the importance of RNNs, especially as models of brain processing, is undisputed, it is also widely acknowledged that the computations in standard RNN models may be an over-simplification of what real neuronal networks compute. Here, we suggest that the RNN approach may be made computationally more powerful by its fusion with Bayesian inference techniques for nonlinear dynamical systems. In this scheme, we use an RNN as a generative model of dynamic input caused by the environment, e.g. of speech or kinematics. Given this generative RNN model, we derive Bayesian update equations that can decode its output. Critically, these updates define a 'recognizing RNN' (rRNN), in which neurons compute and exchange prediction and prediction error messages. The rRNN has several desirable features that a conventional RNN does not have, e.g. fast decoding of dynamic stimuli and robustness to initial conditions and noise. Furthermore, it implements a predictive coding scheme for dynamic inputs. We suggest that the Bayesian inversion of RNNs may be useful both as a model of brain function and as a machine learning tool. We illustrate the use of the rRNN by an application to the online decoding (i.e. recognition) of human kinematics.

  1. Hybrid Hot Strip Rolling Force Prediction using a Bayesian Trained Artificial Neural Network and Analytical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Abdelkrim Moussaoui; Yacine Selaimia; Hadj A. Abbassi

    2006-01-01

    The authors discuss the combination of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with analytical models to improve the performance of the prediction model of finishing rolling force in hot strip rolling mill process. The suggested model was implemented using Bayesian Evidence based training algorithm. It was found that the Bayesian Evidence based approach provided a superior and smoother fit to the real rolling mill data. Completely independent set of real rolling data were used to evaluate the capa...

  2. Applying Artificial Neural Networks for Face Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thai Hoang Le

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces some novel models for all steps of a face recognition system. In the step of face detection, we propose a hybrid model combining AdaBoost and Artificial Neural Network (ABANN to solve the process efficiently. In the next step, labeled faces detected by ABANN will be aligned by Active Shape Model and Multi Layer Perceptron. In this alignment step, we propose a new 2D local texture model based on Multi Layer Perceptron. The classifier of the model significantly improves the accuracy and the robustness of local searching on faces with expression variation and ambiguous contours. In the feature extraction step, we describe a methodology for improving the efficiency by the association of two methods: geometric feature based method and Independent Component Analysis method. In the face matching step, we apply a model combining many Neural Networks for matching geometric features of human face. The model links many Neural Networks together, so we call it Multi Artificial Neural Network. MIT + CMU database is used for evaluating our proposed methods for face detection and alignment. Finally, the experimental results of all steps on CallTech database show the feasibility of our proposed model.

  3. Bayesian neural network approach for determining the risk of re-intervention after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attallah, Omneya; Ma, Xianghong

    2014-09-01

    This article proposes a Bayesian neural network approach to determine the risk of re-intervention after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair surgery. The target of proposed technique is to determine which patients have high chance to re-intervention (high-risk patients) and which are not (low-risk patients) after 5 years of the surgery. Two censored datasets relating to the clinical conditions of aortic aneurysms have been collected from two different vascular centers in the United Kingdom. A Bayesian network was first employed to solve the censoring issue in the datasets. Then, a back propagation neural network model was built using the uncensored data of the first center to predict re-intervention on the second center and classify the patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for each group of patients separately to show whether there is a significant difference between the two risk groups. Finally, the logrank test was applied to determine whether the neural network model was capable of predicting and distinguishing between the two risk groups. The results show that the Bayesian network used for uncensoring the data has improved the performance of the neural networks that were built for the two centers separately. More importantly, the neural network that was trained with uncensored data of the first center was able to predict and discriminate between groups of low risk and high risk of re-intervention after 5 years of endovascular aortic aneurysm surgery at center 2 (p = 0.0037 in the logrank test).

  4. Population red blood cell folate concentrations for prevention of neural tube defects: bayesian model

    OpenAIRE

    MOLLOY, ANNE

    2014-01-01

    PUBLISHED OBJECTIVE: To determine an optimal population red blood cell (RBC) folate concentration for the prevention of neural tube birth defects. DESIGN: Bayesian model. SETTING: Data from two population based studies in China. PARTICIPANTS: 247,831 participants in a prospective community intervention project in China (1993-95) to prevent neural tube defects with 400 μg/day folic acid supplementation and 1194 participants in a population based randomized trial (20...

  5. GPU Implementation of Bayesian Neural Network Construction for Data-Intensive Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Michelle; Prosper, Harrison B.; Meyer-Baese, Anke

    2014-06-01

    We describe a graphical processing unit (GPU) implementation of the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo (HMC) method for training Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN). Our implementation uses NVIDIA's parallel computing architecture, CUDA. We briefly review BNNs and the HMC method and we describe our implementations and give preliminary results.

  6. EEG-fMRI Bayesian framework for neural activity estimation: a simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croce, Pierpaolo; Basti, Alessio; Marzetti, Laura; Zappasodi, Filippo; Del Gratta, Cosimo

    2016-12-01

    Objective. Due to the complementary nature of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and given the possibility of simultaneous acquisition, the joint data analysis can afford a better understanding of the underlying neural activity estimation. In this simulation study we want to show the benefit of the joint EEG-fMRI neural activity estimation in a Bayesian framework. Approach. We built a dynamic Bayesian framework in order to perform joint EEG-fMRI neural activity time course estimation. The neural activity is originated by a given brain area and detected by means of both measurement techniques. We have chosen a resting state neural activity situation to address the worst case in terms of the signal-to-noise ratio. To infer information by EEG and fMRI concurrently we used a tool belonging to the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods: the particle filter (PF). Main results. First, despite a high computational cost, we showed the feasibility of such an approach. Second, we obtained an improvement in neural activity reconstruction when using both EEG and fMRI measurements. Significance. The proposed simulation shows the improvements in neural activity reconstruction with EEG-fMRI simultaneous data. The application of such an approach to real data allows a better comprehension of the neural dynamics.

  7. Bayesian classifiers applied to the Tennessee Eastman process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos, Edimilson Batista; Ebecken, Nelson F F; Hruschka, Estevam R; Elkamel, Ali; Madhuranthakam, Chandra M R

    2014-03-01

    Fault diagnosis includes the main task of classification. Bayesian networks (BNs) present several advantages in the classification task, and previous works have suggested their use as classifiers. Because a classifier is often only one part of a larger decision process, this article proposes, for industrial process diagnosis, the use of a Bayesian method called dynamic Markov blanket classifier that has as its main goal the induction of accurate Bayesian classifiers having dependable probability estimates and revealing actual relationships among the most relevant variables. In addition, a new method, named variable ordering multiple offspring sampling capable of inducing a BN to be used as a classifier, is presented. The performance of these methods is assessed on the data of a benchmark problem known as the Tennessee Eastman process. The obtained results are compared with naive Bayes and tree augmented network classifiers, and confirm that both proposed algorithms can provide good classification accuracies as well as knowledge about relevant variables.

  8. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  9. Applying Bayesian networks in practical customer satisfaction studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaronski, W.; Bloemer, J.M.M.; Vanhoof, K.; Wets, G.

    2004-01-01

    This chapter presents an application of Bayesian network technology in an empirical customer satisfaction study. The findings of the study should provide insight to the importance of product/service dimensions in terms of the strength of their influence on overall (dis)satisfaction. To this end we a

  10. Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takiyama, Ken

    2016-05-01

    Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

  11. Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takiyama, Ken

    2016-05-01

    Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

  12. Neural correlates of decision-making during a Bayesian choice task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poudel, Govinda R; Bhattarai, Anjan; Dickinson, David L; Drummond, Sean P A

    2017-03-01

    Many critical decisions require evaluation of accumulated previous information and/or newly acquired evidence. Although neural correlates of belief updating have been investigated, how these neural processes guide decisions involving Bayesian choice is less clear. Here, we used functional MRI to investigate neural activity during a Bayesian choice task involving two sources of information: base rate odds ('odds') and sample evidence ('evidence'). Thirty-seven healthy control individuals performed the Bayesian choice task in which they had to make probability judgements. Average functional MRI activity during the trials where choice was consistent with use of Odds, use of Evidence, and use of Both was compared. Decision-making consistent with odds, evidence and both each strongly activated the bilateral executive network encompassing the bilateral frontal, cingulate, posterior parietal and occipital cortices. The Evidence consistent, compared with Odds consistent, decisions showed greater activity in the bilateral middle and inferior frontal and right lateral occipital cortices. Decisions consistent with the use of Both strategies were associated with increased activity in the bilateral middle frontal and superior frontal cortices. These findings support the conclusion that both overlapping and distinct brain regions within the frontoparietal network underlie the incorporation of different types of information into a Bayesian decision.

  13. Applying Bayesian belief networks in rapid response situations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibson, William L [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Deborah, Leishman, A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Van Eeckhout, Edward [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    The authors have developed an enhanced Bayesian analysis tool called the Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) for monitoring and surveillance. The enhancements are suited for Rapid Response Situations where decisions must be made based on uncertain and incomplete evidence from many diverse and heterogeneous sources. The enhancements extend the probabilistic results of the traditional Bayesian analysis by (1) better quantifying uncertainty arising from model parameter uncertainty and uncertain evidence, (2) optimizing the collection of evidence to reach conclusions more quickly, and (3) allowing the analyst to determine the influence of the remaining evidence that cannot be obtained in the time allowed. These extended features give the analyst and decision maker a better comprehension of the adequacy of the acquired evidence and hence the quality of the hurried decisions. They also describe two example systems where the above features are highlighted.

  14. Neural network modeling and an uncertainty analysis in Bayesian framework: A case study from the KTB borehole site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maiti, Saumen; Tiwari, Ram Krishna

    2010-10-01

    A new probabilistic approach based on the concept of Bayesian neural network (BNN) learning theory is proposed for decoding litho-facies boundaries from well-log data. We show that how a multi-layer-perceptron neural network model can be employed in Bayesian framework to classify changes in litho-log successions. The method is then applied to the German Continental Deep Drilling Program (KTB) well-log data for classification and uncertainty estimation in the litho-facies boundaries. In this framework, a posteriori distribution of network parameter is estimated via the principle of Bayesian probabilistic theory, and an objective function is minimized following the scaled conjugate gradient optimization scheme. For the model development, we inflict a suitable criterion, which provides probabilistic information by emulating different combinations of synthetic data. Uncertainty in the relationship between the data and the model space is appropriately taken care by assuming a Gaussian a priori distribution of networks parameters (e.g., synaptic weights and biases). Prior to applying the new method to the real KTB data, we tested the proposed method on synthetic examples to examine the sensitivity of neural network hyperparameters in prediction. Within this framework, we examine stability and efficiency of this new probabilistic approach using different kinds of synthetic data assorted with different level of correlated noise. Our data analysis suggests that the designed network topology based on the Bayesian paradigm is steady up to nearly 40% correlated noise; however, adding more noise (˜50% or more) degrades the results. We perform uncertainty analyses on training, validation, and test data sets with and devoid of intrinsic noise by making the Gaussian approximation of the a posteriori distribution about the peak model. We present a standard deviation error-map at the network output corresponding to the three types of the litho-facies present over the entire litho

  15. Applying Bayesian Inference to Galileon Solutions of the Muon Problem

    CERN Document Server

    Lamm, Henry

    2016-01-01

    We derive corrections to atomic energy levels from disformal couplings in Galileon theories. Through Bayesian inference, we constrain the cut-off radii and Galileon scale via these corrections. To connect different atomic systems, we assume the various cut-off radii related by a 1-parameter family of solutions. This introduces a new parameter $\\alpha$ which is also constrained. In this model, we predict shifts to muonic helium of $\\delta E_{He^3}=1.97^{+9.28}_{-1.87}$ meV and $\\delta E_{He^4}=1.69^{+9.25}_{-1.61}$ meV.

  16. Nuclear Mass Predictions for the Crustal Composition of Neutron Stars: A Bayesian Neural Network Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Utama, R; Prosper, H B

    2016-01-01

    Besides their intrinsic nuclear-structure value, nuclear mass models are essential for astrophysical applications, such as r-process nucleosynthesis and neutron-star structure. To overcome the intrinsic limitations of existing "state-of-the-art" mass models, we propose a refinement based on a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) formalism. A novel BNN approach is implemented with the goal of optimizing mass residuals between theory and experiment. A significant improvement (of about 40%) in the mass predictions of existing models is obtained after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results are now accompanied by proper statistical errors. Finally, by constructing a "world average" of these predictions, a mass model is obtained that is used to predict the composition of the outer crust of a neutron star. The power of the Bayesian neural network method has been successfully demonstrated by a systematic improvement in the accuracy of the predictions of nuclear masses. Extension to other nuclear observables is a n...

  17. Bayesian Inference using Neural Net Likelihood Models for Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seong-Gon Kim

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Several techniques such as Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, Decision Trees and other statistical or heuristic methods have been used to approach the complex non-linear task of predicting Alpha-helicies, Beta-sheets and Turns of a proteins secondary structure in the past. This project introduces a new machine learning method by using an offline trained Multilayered Perceptrons (MLP as the likelihood models within a Bayesian Inference framework to predict secondary structures proteins. Varying window sizes are used to extract neighboring amino acid information and passed back and forth between the Neural Net models and the Bayesian Inference process until there is a convergence of the posterior secondary structure probability.

  18. Estimating complicated baselines in analytical signals using the iterative training of Bayesian regularized artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani-Varnosfaderani, Ahmad; Kanginejad, Atefeh; Gilany, Kambiz; Valadkhani, Abolfazl

    2016-10-12

    The present work deals with the development of a new baseline correction method based on the comparative learning capabilities of artificial neural networks. The developed method uses the Bayes probability theorem for prevention of the occurrence of the over-fitting and finding a generalized baseline. The developed method has been applied on simulated and real metabolomic gas-chromatography (GC) and Raman data sets. The results revealed that the proposed method can be used to handle different types of baselines with cave, convex, curvelinear, triangular and sinusoidal patterns. For further evaluation of the performances of this method, it has been compared with benchmarking baseline correction methods such as corner-cutting (CC), morphological weighted penalized least squares (MPLS), adaptive iteratively-reweighted penalized least squares (airPLS) and iterative polynomial fitting (iPF). In order to compare the methods, the projected difference resolution (PDR) criterion has been calculated for the data before and after the baseline correction procedure. The calculated values of PDR after the baseline correction using iBRANN, airPLS, MPLS, iPF and CC algorithms for the GC metabolomic data were 4.18, 3.64, 3.88, 1.88 and 3.08, respectively. The obtained results in this work demonstrated that the developed iterative Bayesian regularized neural network (iBRANN) method in this work thoroughly detects the baselines and is superior over the CC, MPLS, airPLS and iPF techniques. A graphical user interface has been developed for the suggested algorithm and can be used for easy implementation of the iBRANN algorithm for the correction of different chromatography, NMR and Raman data sets.

  19. Nonlinear inversion of electrical resistivity imaging using pruning Bayesian neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Fei-Bo; Dai, Qian-Wei; Dong, Li

    2016-06-01

    Conventional artificial neural networks used to solve electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) inversion problem suffer from overfitting and local minima. To solve these problems, we propose to use a pruning Bayesian neural network (PBNN) nonlinear inversion method and a sample design method based on the K-medoids clustering algorithm. In the sample design method, the training samples of the neural network are designed according to the prior information provided by the K-medoids clustering results; thus, the training process of the neural network is well guided. The proposed PBNN, based on Bayesian regularization, is used to select the hidden layer structure by assessing the effect of each hidden neuron to the inversion results. Then, the hyperparameter α k , which is based on the generalized mean, is chosen to guide the pruning process according to the prior distribution of the training samples under the small-sample condition. The proposed algorithm is more efficient than other common adaptive regularization methods in geophysics. The inversion of synthetic data and field data suggests that the proposed method suppresses the noise in the neural network training stage and enhances the generalization. The inversion results with the proposed method are better than those of the BPNN, RBFNN, and RRBFNN inversion methods as well as the conventional least squares inversion.

  20. Applying Bayesian inference to Galileon solutions of the muon problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamm, Henry

    2016-12-01

    We derive corrections to atomic energy levels from disformal couplings in Galileon theories. Through Bayesian inference, we constrain the cutoff radii and Galileon scale via these corrections. To connect different atomic systems, we assume the various cutoff radii related by a one-parameter family of solutions. This introduces a new parameter α which is also constrained. In this model, we predict shifts to muonic helium of δ EHe3=1.9 7-1.87+9.28 meV and δ EHe4=1.6 9-1.61+9.25 meV as well as for true muonium, δ ETM=0.0 6-0.05+0.46 meV .

  1. Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsheikh, Ahmed H., E-mail: aelsheikh@ices.utexas.edu [Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences (ICES), University of Texas at Austin, TX (United States); Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS (United Kingdom); Wheeler, Mary F. [Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences (ICES), University of Texas at Austin, TX (United States); Hoteit, Ibrahim [Department of Earth Sciences and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal (Saudi Arabia)

    2014-02-01

    A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems.

  2. Bayesian Regularization in a Neural Network Model to Estimate Lines of Code Using Function Points

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. K. Aggarwal

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available It is a well known fact that at the beginning of any project, the software industry needs to know, how much will it cost to develop and what would be the time required ? . This paper examines the potential of using a neural network model for estimating the lines of code, once the functional requirements are known. Using the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (ISBSG Repository Data (release 9 for the experiment, this paper examines the performance of back propagation feed forward neural network to estimate the Source Lines of Code. Multiple training algorithms are used in the experiments. Results demonstrate that the neural network models trained using Bayesian Regularization provide the best results and are suitable for this purpose.

  3. Development of a combined GIS, neural network and Bayesian classifier methodology for classifying remotely sensed data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Claudio Albert

    This research is aimed at the solution of two common but still largely unsolved problems in the classification of remotely sensed data: (1) Classification accuracy of remotely sensed data decreases significantly in mountainous terrain, where topography strongly influences the spectral response of the features on the ground; and (2) when attempting to obtain more detailed classifications, e.g. forest cover types or species, rather than just broad categories of forest such as coniferous or deciduous, the accuracy of the classification generally decreases significantly. The main objective of the study was to develop a widely applicable and efficient classification procedure for mapping forest and other cover types in mountainous terrain, using an integrated GIS/neural network/Bayesian classification approach. The performance of this new technique was compared to a standard supervised Maximum Likelihood classification technique, a "conventional" Bayesian/Maximum Likelihood classification, and to a "conventional" neural network classifier. Results indicate a considerable improvement of the new technique over the standard Maximum Likelihood classification technique, as well as a better accuracy than the "conventional" Bayesian/Maximum Likelihood classifier (13.08 percent improvement in overall accuracy), but the "conventional" neural network classifiers outperformed all the techniques compared in this study, with an overall accuracy improvement of 15.94 percent as compared to the standard Maximum Likelihood classifier (from 46.77 percent to 62.71 percent). However, the overall accuracies of all the classification techniques compared in this study were relative low. It is believed that this was caused by problems related to the inadequacy of the reference data. On the other hand, the results also indicate the need to develop a different sampling design to more effectively cover the variability across all the parameters needed by the neural network classification technique

  4. Hybrid Hot Strip Rolling Force Prediction using a Bayesian Trained Artificial Neural Network and Analytical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkrim Moussaoui

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors discuss the combination of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN with analytical models to improve the performance of the prediction model of finishing rolling force in hot strip rolling mill process. The suggested model was implemented using Bayesian Evidence based training algorithm. It was found that the Bayesian Evidence based approach provided a superior and smoother fit to the real rolling mill data. Completely independent set of real rolling data were used to evaluate the capacity of the fitted ANN model to predict the unseen regions of data. As a result, test rolls obtained by the suggested hybrid model have shown high prediction quality comparatively to the usual empirical prediction models.

  5. Applying neural networks to optimize instrumentation performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Start, S.E.; Peters, G.G.

    1995-06-01

    Well calibrated instrumentation is essential in providing meaningful information about the status of a plant. Signals from plant instrumentation frequently have inherent non-linearities, may be affected by environmental conditions and can therefore cause calibration difficulties for the people who maintain them. Two neural network approaches are described in this paper for improving the accuracy of a non-linear, temperature sensitive level probe ised in Expermental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) that was difficult to calibrate.

  6. Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aires, F.; Prigent, C.; Rossow, W. B.

    2004-01-01

    Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component

  7. Forecasting Rainfall Time Series with stochastic output approximated by neural networks Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Rodriguez Rivero

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The annual estimate of the availability of the amount of water for the agricultural sector has become a lifetime in places where rainfall is scarce, as is the case of northwestern Argentina. This work proposes to model and simulate monthly rainfall time series from one geographical location of Catamarca, Valle El Viejo Portezuelo. In this sense, the time series prediction is mathematical and computational modelling series provided by monthly cumulative rainfall, which has stochastic output approximated by neural networks Bayesian approach. We propose to use an algorithm based on artificial neural networks (ANNs using the Bayesian inference. The result of the prediction consists of 20% of the provided data consisting of 2000 to 2010. A new analysis for modelling, simulation and computational prediction of cumulative rainfall from one geographical location is well presented. They are used as data information, only the historical time series of daily flows measured in mmH2O. Preliminary results of the annual forecast in mmH2O with a prediction horizon of one year and a half are presented, 18 months, respectively. The methodology employs artificial neural network based tools, statistical analysis and computer to complete the missing information and knowledge of the qualitative and quantitative behavior. They also show some preliminary results with different prediction horizons of the proposed filter and its comparison with the performance Gaussian process filter used in the literature.

  8. Artificial Neural Network applied to lightning flashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gin, R. B.; Guedes, D.; Bianchi, R.

    2013-05-01

    The development of video cameras enabled cientists to study lightning discharges comportment with more precision. The main goal of this project is to create a system able to detect images of lightning discharges stored in videos and classify them using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)using C Language and OpenCV libraries. The developed system, can be split in two different modules: detection module and classification module. The detection module uses OpenCV`s computer vision libraries and image processing techniques to detect if there are significant differences between frames in a sequence, indicating that something, still not classified, occurred. Whenever there is a significant difference between two consecutive frames, two main algorithms are used to analyze the frame image: brightness and shape algorithms. These algorithms detect both shape and brightness of the event, removing irrelevant events like birds, as well as detecting the relevant events exact position, allowing the system to track it over time. The classification module uses a neural network to classify the relevant events as horizontal or vertical lightning, save the event`s images and calculates his number of discharges. The Neural Network was implemented using the backpropagation algorithm, and was trained with 42 training images , containing 57 lightning events (one image can have more than one lightning). TheANN was tested with one to five hidden layers, with up to 50 neurons each. The best configuration achieved a success rate of 95%, with one layer containing 20 neurons (33 test images with 42 events were used in this phase). This configuration was implemented in the developed system to analyze 20 video files, containing 63 lightning discharges previously manually detected. Results showed that all the lightning discharges were detected, many irrelevant events were unconsidered, and the event's number of discharges was correctly computed. The neural network used in this project achieved a

  9. A methodology for estimating the uncertainty in model parameters applying the robust Bayesian inferences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Joo Yeon; Lee, Seung Hyun; Park, Tai Jin [Korean Association for Radiation Application, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    Any real application of Bayesian inference must acknowledge that both prior distribution and likelihood function have only been specified as more or less convenient approximations to whatever the analyzer's true belief might be. If the inferences from the Bayesian analysis are to be trusted, it is important to determine that they are robust to such variations of prior and likelihood as might also be consistent with the analyzer's stated beliefs. The robust Bayesian inference was applied to atmospheric dispersion assessment using Gaussian plume model. The scopes of contaminations were specified as the uncertainties of distribution type and parametric variability. The probabilistic distribution of model parameters was assumed to be contaminated as the symmetric unimodal and unimodal distributions. The distribution of the sector-averaged relative concentrations was then calculated by applying the contaminated priors to the model parameters. The sector-averaged concentrations for stability class were compared by applying the symmetric unimodal and unimodal priors, respectively, as the contaminated one based on the class of ε-contamination. Though ε was assumed as 10%, the medians reflecting the symmetric unimodal priors were nearly approximated within 10% compared with ones reflecting the plausible ones. However, the medians reflecting the unimodal priors were approximated within 20% for a few downwind distances compared with ones reflecting the plausible ones. The robustness has been answered by estimating how the results of the Bayesian inferences are robust to reasonable variations of the plausible priors. From these robust inferences, it is reasonable to apply the symmetric unimodal priors for analyzing the robustness of the Bayesian inferences.

  10. Bayesian adaptive combination of short-term wind speed forecasts from neural network models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Gong; Shi, Jing; Zhou, Junyi [Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, North Dakota State University, Dept. 2485, PO Box 6050, Fargo, ND 58108 (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Short-term wind speed forecasting is of great importance for wind farm operations and the integration of wind energy into the power grid system. Adaptive and reliable methods and techniques of wind speed forecasts are urgently needed in view of the stochastic nature of wind resource varying from time to time and from site to site. This paper presents a robust two-step methodology for accurate wind speed forecasting based on Bayesian combination algorithm, and three neural network models, namely, adaptive linear element network (ADALINE), backpropagation (BP) network, and radial basis function (RBF) network. The hourly average wind speed data from two North Dakota sites are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results indicate that, while the performances of the neural networks are not consistent in forecasting 1-h-ahead wind speed for the two sites or under different evaluation metrics, the Bayesian combination method can always provide adaptive, reliable and comparatively accurate forecast results. The proposed methodology provides a unified approach to tackle the challenging model selection issue in wind speed forecasting. (author)

  11. Multisensory Bayesian Inference Depends on Synapse Maturation during Training: Theoretical Analysis and Neural Modeling Implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ursino, Mauro; Cuppini, Cristiano; Magosso, Elisa

    2017-03-01

    Recent theoretical and experimental studies suggest that in multisensory conditions, the brain performs a near-optimal Bayesian estimate of external events, giving more weight to the more reliable stimuli. However, the neural mechanisms responsible for this behavior, and its progressive maturation in a multisensory environment, are still insufficiently understood. The aim of this letter is to analyze this problem with a neural network model of audiovisual integration, based on probabilistic population coding-the idea that a population of neurons can encode probability functions to perform Bayesian inference. The model consists of two chains of unisensory neurons (auditory and visual) topologically organized. They receive the corresponding input through a plastic receptive field and reciprocally exchange plastic cross-modal synapses, which encode the spatial co-occurrence of visual-auditory inputs. A third chain of multisensory neurons performs a simple sum of auditory and visual excitations. The work includes a theoretical part and a computer simulation study. We show how a simple rule for synapse learning (consisting of Hebbian reinforcement and a decay term) can be used during training to shrink the receptive fields and encode the unisensory likelihood functions. Hence, after training, each unisensory area realizes a maximum likelihood estimate of stimulus position (auditory or visual). In cross-modal conditions, the same learning rule can encode information on prior probability into the cross-modal synapses. Computer simulations confirm the theoretical results and show that the proposed network can realize a maximum likelihood estimate of auditory (or visual) positions in unimodal conditions and a Bayesian estimate, with moderate deviations from optimality, in cross-modal conditions. Furthermore, the model explains the ventriloquism illusion and, looking at the activity in the multimodal neurons, explains the automatic reweighting of auditory and visual inputs

  12. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xuesong

    2011-11-01

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework (BNN-PIS) to incorporate the uncertainties associated with parameters, inputs, and structures into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameters and model structures. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters shows that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of and interactions among different uncertainty sources is expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  13. Decentralized Neural Backstepping Control Applied to a Robot Manipulator

    OpenAIRE

    Ramon Garcia-Hernandez; Ruz-Hernandez, Jose A.; Jose L. Rullan-Lara

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a discrete‐time decentralized control scheme for trajectory tracking of a two degrees of freedom (DOF) robot manipulator. A high order neural network (HONN) is used to approximate a decentralized control law designed by the backstepping technique as applied to a block strict feedback form (BSFF). The weights for each neural network are adapted online by an extended Kalman filter training algorithm. The motion for each joint is controlled independently using only local angu...

  14. Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

    KAUST Repository

    Elsheikh, Ahmed H.

    2014-02-01

    A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  15. Technical note: An R package for fitting Bayesian regularized neural networks with applications in animal breeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, P; Gianola, D; Weigel, K A; Rosa, G J M; Crossa, J

    2013-08-01

    In recent years, several statistical models have been developed for predicting genetic values for complex traits using information on dense molecular markers, pedigrees, or both. These models include, among others, the Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN) that have been widely used in prediction problems in other fields of application and, more recently, for genome-enabled prediction. The R package described here (brnn) implements BRNN models and extends these to include both additive and dominance effects. The implementation takes advantage of multicore architectures via a parallel computing approach using openMP (Open Multiprocessing) for the computations. This note briefly describes the classes of models that can be fitted using the brnn package, and it also illustrates its use through several real examples.

  16. Peak load forecasting using Bayesian regularization, Resilient and adaptive backpropagation learning based artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saini, Lalit Mohan [Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Kurukshetra, Haryana 136119 (India)

    2008-07-15

    Up to 7 days ahead electrical peak load forecasting has been done using feed forward neural network based on Steepest descent, Bayesian regularization, Resilient and adaptive backpropagation learning methods, by incorporating the effect of eleven weather parameters and past peak load information. To avoid trapping of network into a state of local minima, the optimization of user-defined parameters viz., learning rate and error goal has been performed. The sliding window concept has been incorporated for selection of training data set. It was then reduced as per relevant selection according to the day type and season for which the forecast is made. To reduce the dimensionality of input matrix, the Principal Component Analysis method of factor extraction or correlation analysis technique has been used and their performance has been compared. The resultant data set was used for training of three-layered neural network. In order to increase the learning speed, the weights and biases were initialized according to Nguyen and Widrow method. To avoid over fitting, early stopping of training was done at the minimum validation error. (author)

  17. A Bayesian Model for Plan Recognition in RTS Games applied to StarCraft

    CERN Document Server

    Synnaeve, Gabriel

    2011-01-01

    The task of keyhole (unobtrusive) plan recognition is central to adaptive game AI. "Tech trees" or "build trees" are the core of real-time strategy (RTS) game strategic (long term) planning. This paper presents a generic and simple Bayesian model for RTS build tree prediction from noisy observations, which parameters are learned from replays (game logs). This unsupervised machine learning approach involves minimal work for the game developers as it leverage players' data (com- mon in RTS). We applied it to StarCraft1 and showed that it yields high quality and robust predictions, that can feed an adaptive AI.

  18. Assessing Vermont's stream health and biological integrity using artificial neural networks and Bayesian methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzo, D. M.; Fytilis, N.; Stevens, L.

    2012-12-01

    Environmental managers are increasingly required to monitor and forecast long-term effects and vulnerability of biophysical systems to human-generated stresses. Ideally, a study involving both physical and biological assessments conducted concurrently (in space and time) could provide a better understanding of the mechanisms and complex relationships. However, costs and resources associated with monitoring the complex linkages between the physical, geomorphic and habitat conditions and the biological integrity of stream reaches are prohibitive. Researchers have used classification techniques to place individual streams and rivers into a broader spatial context (hydrologic or health condition). Such efforts require environmental managers to gather multiple forms of information - quantitative, qualitative and subjective. We research and develop a novel classification tool that combines self-organizing maps with a Naïve Bayesian classifier to direct resources to stream reaches most in need. The Vermont Agency of Natural Resources has developed and adopted protocols for physical stream geomorphic and habitat assessments throughout the state of Vermont. Separate from these assessments, the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation monitors the biological communities and the water quality in streams. Our initial hypothesis is that the geomorphic reach assessments and water quality data may be leveraged to reduce error and uncertainty associated with predictions of biological integrity and stream health. We test our hypothesis using over 2500 Vermont stream reaches (~1371 stream miles) assessed by the two agencies. In the development of this work, we combine a Naïve Bayesian classifier with a modified Kohonen Self-Organizing Map (SOM). The SOM is an unsupervised artificial neural network that autonomously analyzes inherent dataset properties using input data only. It is typically used to cluster data into similar categories when a priori classes do not exist. The

  19. Bayesian GGE biplot models applied to maize multi-environments trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, L A; da Silva, C P; Nuvunga, J J; da Silva, A Q; Balestre, M

    2016-06-17

    The additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) and the genotype main effects and genotype x environment interaction (GGE) models stand out among the linear-bilinear models used in genotype x environment interaction studies. Despite the advantages of their use to describe genotype x environment (AMMI) or genotype and genotype x environment (GGE) interactions, these methods have known limitations that are inherent to fixed effects models, including difficulty in treating variance heterogeneity and missing data. Traditional biplots include no measure of uncertainty regarding the principal components. The present study aimed to apply the Bayesian approach to GGE biplot models and assess the implications for selecting stable and adapted genotypes. Our results demonstrated that the Bayesian approach applied to GGE models with non-informative priors was consistent with the traditional GGE biplot analysis, although the credible region incorporated into the biplot enabled distinguishing, based on probability, the performance of genotypes, and their relationships with the environments in the biplot. Those regions also enabled the identification of groups of genotypes and environments with similar effects in terms of adaptability and stability. The relative position of genotypes and environments in biplots is highly affected by the experimental accuracy. Thus, incorporation of uncertainty in biplots is a key tool for breeders to make decisions regarding stability selection and adaptability and the definition of mega-environments.

  20. Assessment of groundwater quality: a fusion of geochemical and geophysical information via Bayesian neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maiti, Saumen; Erram, V C; Gupta, Gautam; Tiwari, Ram Krishna; Kulkarni, U D; Sangpal, R R

    2013-04-01

    Deplorable quality of groundwater arising from saltwater intrusion, natural leaching and anthropogenic activities is one of the major concerns for the society. Assessment of groundwater quality is, therefore, a primary objective of scientific research. Here, we propose an artificial neural network-based method set in a Bayesian neural network (BNN) framework and employ it to assess groundwater quality. The approach is based on analyzing 36 water samples and inverting up to 85 Schlumberger vertical electrical sounding data. We constructed a priori model by suitably parameterizing geochemical and geophysical data collected from the western part of India. The posterior model (post-inversion) was estimated using the BNN learning procedure and global hybrid Monte Carlo/Markov Chain Monte Carlo optimization scheme. By suitable parameterization of geochemical and geophysical parameters, we simulated 1,500 training samples, out of which 50 % samples were used for training and remaining 50 % were used for validation and testing. We show that the trained model is able to classify validation and test samples with 85 % and 80 % accuracy respectively. Based on cross-correlation analysis and Gibb's diagram of geochemical attributes, the groundwater qualities of the study area were classified into following three categories: "Very good", "Good", and "Unsuitable". The BNN model-based results suggest that groundwater quality falls mostly in the range of "Good" to "Very good" except for some places near the Arabian Sea. The new modeling results powered by uncertainty and statistical analyses would provide useful constrain, which could be utilized in monitoring and assessment of the groundwater quality.

  1. Decentralized Neural Backstepping Control Applied to a Robot Manipulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramon Garcia-Hernandez

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a discrete‐time decentralized control scheme for trajectory tracking of a two degrees of freedom (DOF robot manipulator. A high order neural network (HONN is used to approximate a decentralized control law designed by the backstepping technique as applied to a block strict feedback form (BSFF. The weights for each neural network are adapted online by an extended Kalman filter training algorithm. The motion for each joint is controlled independently using only local angular position and velocity measurements. The stability analysis for the closed‐loop system via the Lyapunov approach is included. Finally, the real‐time results show the feasibility of the proposed control scheme using a robot manipulator.

  2. Neural network method applied to particle image velocimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Ian; Pan, X.

    1993-12-01

    realised. An important class of neural network is the multi-layer perceptron. The neurons are distributed on surfaces and linked by weighted interconnections. In the present paper we demonstrate how this type of net can developed into a competitive, adaptive filter which will identify PIV image pairs in a number of commonly occurring flow types. Previous work by the authors in particle tracking analysis (1, 2) has shown the efficiency of statistical windowing techniques in flows without systematic (in time or space) variations. The effectiveness of the present neural net is illustrated by applying it to digital simulations ofturbulent and rotating flows. Work reported by Cenedese et al (3) has taken a different approach in examining the potential for neural net methods applied to PIV.

  3. Bayesian Inference for Neural Electromagnetic Source Localization: Analysis of MEG Visual Evoked Activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George, J.S.; Schmidt, D.M.; Wood, C.C.

    1999-02-01

    We have developed a Bayesian approach to the analysis of neural electromagnetic (MEG/EEG) data that can incorporate or fuse information from other imaging modalities and addresses the ill-posed inverse problem by sarnpliig the many different solutions which could have produced the given data. From these samples one can draw probabilistic inferences about regions of activation. Our source model assumes a variable number of variable size cortical regions of stimulus-correlated activity. An active region consists of locations on the cortical surf ace, within a sphere centered on some location in cortex. The number and radi of active regions can vary to defined maximum values. The goal of the analysis is to determine the posterior probability distribution for the set of parameters that govern the number, location, and extent of active regions. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to generate a large sample of sets of parameters distributed according to the posterior distribution. This sample is representative of the many different source distributions that could account for given data, and allows identification of probable (i.e. consistent) features across solutions. Examples of the use of this analysis technique with both simulated and empirical MEG data are presented.

  4. Bayesian flux balance analysis applied to a skeletal muscle metabolic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heino, Jenni; Tunyan, Knarik; Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki

    2007-09-01

    In this article, the steady state condition for the multi-compartment models for cellular metabolism is considered. The problem is to estimate the reaction and transport fluxes, as well as the concentrations in venous blood when the stoichiometry and bound constraints for the fluxes and the concentrations are given. The problem has been addressed previously by a number of authors, and optimization-based approaches as well as extreme pathway analysis have been proposed. These approaches are briefly discussed here. The main emphasis of this work is a Bayesian statistical approach to the flux balance analysis (FBA). We show how the bound constraints and optimality conditions such as maximizing the oxidative phosphorylation flux can be incorporated into the model in the Bayesian framework by proper construction of the prior densities. We propose an effective Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to explore the posterior densities, and compare the results with those obtained via the previously studied linear programming (LP) approach. The proposed methodology, which is applied here to a two-compartment model for skeletal muscle metabolism, can be extended to more complex models.

  5. Chaotic neural network applied to two-dimensional motion control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Hiroyuki; Kurata, Shuhei; Li, Yongtao; Nara, Shigetoshi

    2010-03-01

    Chaotic dynamics generated in a chaotic neural network model are applied to 2-dimensional (2-D) motion control. The change of position of a moving object in each control time step is determined by a motion function which is calculated from the firing activity of the chaotic neural network. Prototype attractors which correspond to simple motions of the object toward four directions in 2-D space are embedded in the neural network model by designing synaptic connection strengths. Chaotic dynamics introduced by changing system parameters sample intermediate points in the high-dimensional state space between the embedded attractors, resulting in motion in various directions. By means of adaptive switching of the system parameters between a chaotic regime and an attractor regime, the object is able to reach a target in a 2-D maze. In computer experiments, the success rate of this method over many trials not only shows better performance than that of stochastic random pattern generators but also shows that chaotic dynamics can be useful for realizing robust, adaptive and complex control function with simple rules.

  6. Fuzzy neural network methodology applied to medical diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorzalczany, Marian B.; Deutsch-Mcleish, Mary

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a technique for building expert systems that combines the fuzzy-set approach with artificial neural network structures. This technique can effectively deal with two types of medical knowledge: a nonfuzzy one and a fuzzy one which usually contributes to the process of medical diagnosis. Nonfuzzy numerical data is obtained from medical tests. Fuzzy linguistic rules describing the diagnosis process are provided by a human expert. The proposed method has been successfully applied in veterinary medicine as a support system in the diagnosis of canine liver diseases.

  7. Bayesian mapping of neural tube defects prevalence in Heshun County, Shanxi Province, China during 1998~2001

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHI Wen-xue; WANG Jin-feng; LI Xin-hu; ZHENG Xiao-ying; LIAO Yi-lan

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To estimate the prevalence rates of neural tube defects (NTDs) in Heshun County, Shanxi Province, China by Bayesian smoothing technique. Methods: A total of 80 infants in the study area who were diagnosed with NTDs were analyzed. Two mapping techniques were then used. Firstly, the GIS software ArcGIS was used to map the crude prevalence rates. Secondly,the data were smoothed by the method of empirical Bayes estimation. Results: The classical statistical approach produced an extremely dishomogeneous map, while the Bayesian map was much smoother and more interpretable. The maps produced by the Bayesian technique indicate the tendency of villages in the southeastern region to produce higher prevalence or risk values. Conclusions: The Bayesian smoothing technique addresses the issue of heterogeneity in the population at risk and it is therefore recommended for use in explorative mapping of birth defects. This approach provides procedures to identify spatial health risk levels and assists in generating hypothesis that will be investigated in further detail.

  8. Applying neural networks to the solution of forward and inverse heat conduction problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, S.; Hwang, Y. [Department of Weapon System Engineering, Chung Cheng Institute of Technology, National Defense University, No. 190, Sanyuan 1st St., Dashi Jen, Taoyuan 33509, Taiwan (Taiwan)

    2006-12-15

    This paper employs the continuous-time analogue Hopfield neural network to compute the temperature distribution in forward heat conduction problems and solves inverse heat conduction problems by using a back propagation neural (BPN) network to identify the unknown boundary conditions. The weak generalization capacity of BPN networks is improved by employing the Bayesian regularization algorithm. The feasibility of the proposed method is examined in a series of numerical simulations. The results show that the proposed neural network analysis method successfully solves forward heat conduction problems and is capable of predicting the unknown parameters in inverse problems with an acceptable error. (author)

  9. Forecasting Baltic Dirty Tanker Index by Applying Wavelet Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fan, Shuangrui; JI, TINGYUN; Bergqvist, Rickard

    2013-01-01

    inputs for WNN forecasting model. The paper examines non-linearity and non-stationary features of the BDTI and elaborates WNN model building procedures. Finally, the comparison of forecasting performance between WNN and ARIMA time series models show that WNN has better forecasting accuracy than...... modeling techniques used in freight rate forecasting. At the same time research in shipping index forecasting e.g. BDTI applying artificial intelligent techniques is scarce. This analyses the possibilities to forecast the BDTI by applying Wavelet Neural Networks (WNN). Firstly, the characteristics......Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) is an important assessment index in world dirty tanker shipping industry. Actors in the industry sector can gain numerous benefits from accurate forecasting of the BDTI. However, limitations exist in traditional stochastic and econometric explanation...

  10. Study of Single Top Quark Production Using Bayesian Neural Networks With D0 Detector at the Tevatron

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joshi, Jyoti [Panjab Univ., Chandigarh (India)

    2012-01-01

    Top quark, the heaviest and most intriguing among the six known quarks, can be created via two independent production mechanisms in {\\pp} collisions. The primary mode, strong {\\ttbar} pair production from a $gtt$ vertex, was used by the {\\d0} and CDF collaborations to establish the existence of the top quark in March 1995. The second mode is the electroweak production of a single top quark or antiquark, which has been observed recently in March 2009. Since single top quarks are produced at hadron colliders through a $Wtb$ vertex, thereby provide a direct probe of the nature of $Wtb$ coupling and of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element, $V_{tb}$. So this mechanism provides a sensitive probe for several, standard model and beyond standard model, parameters such as anomalous $Wtb$ couplings. In this thesis, we measure the cross section of the electroweak produced top quark in three different production modes, $s+t$, $s$ and $t$-channels using a technique based on the Bayesian neural networks. This technique is applied for analysis of the 5.4 $fb^{-1}$ of data collected by the {\\d0} detector. From a comparison of the Bayesian neural networks discriminants between data and the signal-background model using Bayesian statistics, the cross sections of the top quark produced through the electroweak mechanism have been measured as: \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tb+X,tqb+X) = 3.11^{+0.77}_{-0.71}\\;\\rm pb\\] \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tb+X) = 0.72^{+0.44}_{-0.43}\\;\\rm pb\\] \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tqb+X) = 2.92^{+0.87}_{-0.73}\\;\\rm pb\\] % The $s+t$-channel has a gaussian significance of $4.7\\sigma$, the $s$-channel $0.9\\sigma$ and the $t$-channel~$4.7\\sigma$. The results are consistent with the standard model predictions within one standard deviation. By combining these results with the results for two other analyses (using different MVA techniques) improved results \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tb+X,tqb+X) = 3.43^{+0.73}_{-0.74}\\;\\rm pb\\] \\[\\sigma

  11. An empirical Bayesian analysis applied to the globular cluster pulsar population

    CERN Document Server

    Turk, P J

    2013-01-01

    We describe an empirical Bayesian approach to determine the most likely size of an astronomical population of sources of which only a small subset are observed above some limiting flux density threshold. The method is most naturally applied to astronomical source populations at a common distance (e.g.,stellar populations in globular clusters), and can be applied even to populations where a survey detects no objects. The model allows for the inclusion of physical parameters of the stellar population and the detection process. As an example, we apply this method to the current sample of radio pulsars in Galactic globular clusters. Using the sample of flux density limits on pulsar surveys in 94 globular clusters published by Boyles et al., we examine a large number of population models with different dependencies. We find that models which include the globular cluster two-body encounter rate, $\\Gamma$, are strongly favoured over models in which this is not a factor. The optimal model is one in which the mean num...

  12. Applying a Bayesian Approach to Identification of Orthotropic Elastic Constants from Full Field Displacement Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Riche R.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A major challenge in the identification of material properties is handling different sources of uncertainty in the experiment and the modelling of the experiment for estimating the resulting uncertainty in the identified properties. Numerous improvements in identification methods have provided increasingly accurate estimates of various material properties. However, characterizing the uncertainty in the identified properties is still relatively crude. Different material properties obtained from a single test are not obtained with the same confidence. Typically the highest uncertainty is associated with respect to properties to which the experiment is the most insensitive. In addition, the uncertainty in different properties can be strongly correlated, so that obtaining only variance estimates may be misleading. A possible approach for handling the different sources of uncertainty and estimating the uncertainty in the identified properties is the Bayesian method. This method was introduced in the late 1970s in the context of identification [1] and has been applied since to different problems, notably identification of elastic constants from plate vibration experiments [2]-[4]. The applications of the method to these classical pointwise tests involved only a small number of measurements (typically ten natural frequencies in the previously cited vibration test which facilitated the application of the Bayesian approach. For identifying elastic constants, full field strain or displacement measurements provide a high number of measured quantities (one measurement per image pixel and hence a promise of smaller uncertainties in the properties. However, the high number of measurements represents also a major computational challenge in applying the Bayesian approach to full field measurements. To address this challenge we propose an approach based on the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD of the full fields in order to drastically reduce their

  13. Applying a Bayesian Approach to Identification of Orthotropic Elastic Constants from Full Field Displacement Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gogu, C.; Yin, W.; Haftka, R.; Ifju, P.; Molimard, J.; Le Riche, R.; Vautrin, A.

    2010-06-01

    A major challenge in the identification of material properties is handling different sources of uncertainty in the experiment and the modelling of the experiment for estimating the resulting uncertainty in the identified properties. Numerous improvements in identification methods have provided increasingly accurate estimates of various material properties. However, characterizing the uncertainty in the identified properties is still relatively crude. Different material properties obtained from a single test are not obtained with the same confidence. Typically the highest uncertainty is associated with respect to properties to which the experiment is the most insensitive. In addition, the uncertainty in different properties can be strongly correlated, so that obtaining only variance estimates may be misleading. A possible approach for handling the different sources of uncertainty and estimating the uncertainty in the identified properties is the Bayesian method. This method was introduced in the late 1970s in the context of identification [1] and has been applied since to different problems, notably identification of elastic constants from plate vibration experiments [2]-[4]. The applications of the method to these classical pointwise tests involved only a small number of measurements (typically ten natural frequencies in the previously cited vibration test) which facilitated the application of the Bayesian approach. For identifying elastic constants, full field strain or displacement measurements provide a high number of measured quantities (one measurement per image pixel) and hence a promise of smaller uncertainties in the properties. However, the high number of measurements represents also a major computational challenge in applying the Bayesian approach to full field measurements. To address this challenge we propose an approach based on the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) of the full fields in order to drastically reduce their dimensionality. POD is

  14. Application of Bayesian Neural Networks to Energy Reconstruction in EAS Experiments for ground-based TeV Astrophysics

    CERN Document Server

    Bai, Ying; Lan, JieQin; Gao, WeiWei

    2016-01-01

    A toy detector array has been designed to simulate the detection of cosmic rays in Extended Air Shower(EAS) Experiments for ground-based TeV Astrophysics. The primary energies of protons from the Monte-Carlo simulation have been reconstructed by the algorithm of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and a standard method like the LHAASO experiment\\cite{lhaaso-ma}, respectively. The result of the energy reconstruction using BNNs has been compared with the one using the standard method. Compared to the standard method, the energy resolutions are significantly improved using BNNs. And the improvement is more obvious for the high energy protons than the low energy ones.

  15. Application of Bayesian neural networks to energy reconstruction in EAS experiments for ground-based TeV astrophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Y.; Xu, Y.; Pan, J.; Lan, J. Q.; Gao, W. W.

    2016-07-01

    A toy detector array is designed to detect a shower generated by the interaction between a TeV cosmic ray and the atmosphere. In the present paper, the primary energies of showers detected by the detector array are reconstructed with the algorithm of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and a standard method like the LHAASO experiment [1], respectively. Compared to the standard method, the energy resolutions are significantly improved using the BNNs. And the improvement is more obvious for the high energy showers than the low energy ones.

  16. GMDH and neural networks applied in temperature sensors monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueno, Elaine Inacio, E-mail: ebueno@cefetsp.b [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia, Braganca Paulista, SP (Brazil); Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Pereira, Iraci Martinez; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e, E-mail: martinez@ipen.b, E-mail: teixeira@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work a monitoring system was developed based on the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) and Neural Networks (ANNs) methodologies. This methodology was applied to the IEA-R1 research reactor at IPEN by using a database obtained from a theoretical model of the reactor. The IEA-R1 research reactor is a pool type reactor of 5 MW, cooled and moderated by light water, and uses graphite and beryllium as reflector. The theoretical model was developed using the Matlab GUIDE toolbox. The equations are based in the IEA-R1 mass and energy inventory balance and physical as well as operational aspects are taken into consideration. This methodology was developed by using the GMDH algorithm as input variables to the ANNs. The results obtained using the GMDH and ANNs were better than that obtained using only ANNs. (author)

  17. EDITORIAL: Special issue on applied neurodynamics: from neural dynamics to neural engineering Special issue on applied neurodynamics: from neural dynamics to neural engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiel, Hillel J.; Thomas, Peter J.

    2011-12-01

    , the sun, earth and moon) proved to be far more difficult. In the late nineteenth century, Poincaré made significant progress on this problem, introducing a geometric method of reasoning about solutions to differential equations (Diacu and Holmes 1996). This work had a powerful impact on mathematicians and physicists, and also began to influence biology. In his 1925 book, based on his work starting in 1907, and that of others, Lotka used nonlinear differential equations and concepts from dynamical systems theory to analyze a wide variety of biological problems, including oscillations in the numbers of predators and prey (Lotka 1925). Although little was known in detail about the function of the nervous system, Lotka concluded his book with speculations about consciousness and the implications this might have for creating a mathematical formulation of biological systems. Much experimental work in the 1930s and 1940s focused on the biophysical mechanisms of excitability in neural tissue, and Rashevsky and others continued to apply tools and concepts from nonlinear dynamical systems theory as a means of providing a more general framework for understanding these results (Rashevsky 1960, Landahl and Podolsky 1949). The publication of Hodgkin and Huxley's classic quantitative model of the action potential in 1952 created a new impetus for these studies (Hodgkin and Huxley 1952). In 1955, FitzHugh published an important paper that summarized much of the earlier literature, and used concepts from phase plane analysis such as asymptotic stability, saddle points, separatrices and the role of noise to provide a deeper theoretical and conceptual understanding of threshold phenomena (Fitzhugh 1955, Izhikevich and FitzHugh 2006). The Fitzhugh-Nagumo equations constituted an important two-dimensional simplification of the four-dimensional Hodgkin and Huxley equations, and gave rise to an extensive literature of analysis. Many of the papers in this special issue build on tools

  18. On the relationship between deterministic and probabilistic directed Graphical models: from Bayesian networks to recursive neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldi, Pierre; Rosen-Zvi, Michal

    2005-10-01

    Machine learning methods that can handle variable-size structured data such as sequences and graphs include Bayesian networks (BNs) and Recursive Neural Networks (RNNs). In both classes of models, the data is modeled using a set of observed and hidden variables associated with the nodes of a directed acyclic graph. In BNs, the conditional relationships between parent and child variables are probabilistic, whereas in RNNs they are deterministic and parameterized by neural networks. Here, we study the formal relationship between both classes of models and show that when the source nodes variables are observed, RNNs can be viewed as limits, both in distribution and probability, of BNs with local conditional distributions that have vanishing covariance matrices and converge to delta functions. Conditions for uniform convergence are also given together with an analysis of the behavior and exactness of Belief Propagation (BP) in 'deterministic' BNs. Implications for the design of mixed architectures and the corresponding inference algorithms are briefly discussed.

  19. Error-correction learning for artificial neural networks using the Bayesian paradigm. Application to automated medical diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belciug, Smaranda; Gorunescu, Florin

    2014-12-01

    Automated medical diagnosis models are now ubiquitous, and research for developing new ones is constantly growing. They play an important role in medical decision-making, helping physicians to provide a fast and accurate diagnosis. Due to their adaptive learning and nonlinear mapping properties, the artificial neural networks are widely used to support the human decision capabilities, avoiding variability in practice and errors based on lack of experience. Among the most common learning approaches, one can mention either the classical back-propagation algorithm based on the partial derivatives of the error function with respect to the weights, or the Bayesian learning method based on posterior probability distribution of weights, given training data. This paper proposes a novel training technique gathering together the error-correction learning, the posterior probability distribution of weights given the error function, and the Goodman-Kruskal Gamma rank correlation to assembly them in a Bayesian learning strategy. This study had two main purposes; firstly, to develop anovel learning technique based on both the Bayesian paradigm and the error back-propagation, and secondly,to assess its effectiveness. The proposed model performance is compared with those obtained by traditional machine learning algorithms using real-life breast and lung cancer, diabetes, and heart attack medical databases. Overall, the statistical comparison results indicate that thenovellearning approach outperforms the conventional techniques in almost all respects.

  20. A Novel Prediction Algorithm of DR Position Error Based on Bayesian Regularization Back-propagation Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Honglian

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available It is difficult to accurately reckon vehicle position for vehicle navigation system (VNS during GPS outages, a novel prediction algorithm of dead reckon (DR position error is put forward, which based on Bayesian regularization back-propagation (BRBP neural network. DR, GPS position data are first de-noised and compared at different stationary wavelet transformation (SWT decomposition level, and DR position error data are acquired after the SWT coefficients differences are reconstructed. A neural network to mimic position error property is trained with back-propagation algorithm, and the algorithm is improved for improving its generalization by Bayesian regularization theory. During GPS outages, the established prediction algorithm predictes DR position errors, and provides precise position for VNS through DR position error data updating DR position data. The simulation results show the positioning precision of the BRBP algorithm is best among the presented prediction algorithms such as simple DR and adaptive linear network, and a precise mathematical model of navigation sensors isn’t established.

  1. Can Artificial Neural Networks be Applied in Seismic Predicition? Preliminary Analysis Applying Radial Topology. Case: Mexico

    CERN Document Server

    Mota-Hernandez, Cinthya; Alvarado-Corona, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Tectonic earthquakes of high magnitude can cause considerable losses in terms of human lives, economic and infrastructure, among others. According to an evaluation published by the U.S. Geological Survey, 30 is the number of earthquakes which have greatly impacted Mexico from the end of the XIX century to this one. Based upon data from the National Seismological Service, on the period between January 1, 2006 and May 1, 2013 there have occurred 5,826 earthquakes which magnitude has been greater than 4.0 degrees on the Richter magnitude scale (25.54% of the total of earthquakes registered on the national territory), being the Pacific Plate and the Cocos Plate the most important ones. This document describes the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on the radial topology which seeks to generate a prediction with an error margin lower than 20% which can inform about the probability of a future earthquake one of the main questions is: can artificial neural networks be applied in seismic forecast...

  2. Are Student Evaluations of Teaching Effectiveness Valid for Measuring Student Learning Outcomes in Business Related Classes? A Neural Network and Bayesian Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith, Craig S.; Merrill, Gregory B.; Kline, Doug M.

    2012-01-01

    In this study we investigate the underlying relational structure between student evaluations of teaching effectiveness (SETEs) and achievement of student learning outcomes in 116 business related courses. Utilizing traditional statistical techniques, a neural network analysis and a Bayesian data reduction and classification algorithm, we find…

  3. EXONEST: Bayesian model selection applied to the detection and characterization of exoplanets via photometric variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placek, Ben; Knuth, Kevin H. [Physics Department, University at Albany (SUNY), Albany, NY 12222 (United States); Angerhausen, Daniel, E-mail: bplacek@albany.edu, E-mail: kknuth@albany.edu, E-mail: daniel.angerhausen@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Applied Physics, and Astronomy, Rensselear Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180 (United States)

    2014-11-10

    EXONEST is an algorithm dedicated to detecting and characterizing the photometric signatures of exoplanets, which include reflection and thermal emission, Doppler boosting, and ellipsoidal variations. Using Bayesian inference, we can test between competing models that describe the data as well as estimate model parameters. We demonstrate this approach by testing circular versus eccentric planetary orbital models, as well as testing for the presence or absence of four photometric effects. In addition to using Bayesian model selection, a unique aspect of EXONEST is the potential capability to distinguish between reflective and thermal contributions to the light curve. A case study is presented using Kepler data recorded from the transiting planet KOI-13b. By considering only the nontransiting portions of the light curve, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the photometrically relevant model parameters of KOI-13b. Furthermore, Bayesian model testing confirms that the orbit of KOI-13b has a detectable eccentricity.

  4. EXONEST: Bayesian Model Selection Applied to the Detection and Characterization of Exoplanets Via Photometric Variations

    CERN Document Server

    Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    EXONEST is an algorithm dedicated to detecting and characterizing the photometric signatures of exoplanets, which include reflection and thermal emission, Doppler boosting, and ellipsoidal variations. Using Bayesian Inference, we can test between competing models that describe the data as well as estimate model parameters. We demonstrate this approach by testing circular versus eccentric planetary orbital models, as well as testing for the presence or absence of four photometric effects. In addition to using Bayesian Model Selection, a unique aspect of EXONEST is the capability to distinguish between reflective and thermal contributions to the light curve. A case-study is presented using Kepler data recorded from the transiting planet KOI-13b. By considering only the non-transiting portions of the light curve, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the photometrically-relevant model parameters of KOI-13b. Furthermore, Bayesian model testing confirms that the orbit of KOI-13b has a detectable eccentric...

  5. EXONEST: Bayesian Model Selection Applied to the Detection and Characterization of Exoplanets via Photometric Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Placek, Ben; Knuth, Kevin H.; Angerhausen, Daniel

    2014-11-01

    EXONEST is an algorithm dedicated to detecting and characterizing the photometric signatures of exoplanets, which include reflection and thermal emission, Doppler boosting, and ellipsoidal variations. Using Bayesian inference, we can test between competing models that describe the data as well as estimate model parameters. We demonstrate this approach by testing circular versus eccentric planetary orbital models, as well as testing for the presence or absence of four photometric effects. In addition to using Bayesian model selection, a unique aspect of EXONEST is the potential capability to distinguish between reflective and thermal contributions to the light curve. A case study is presented using Kepler data recorded from the transiting planet KOI-13b. By considering only the nontransiting portions of the light curve, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the photometrically relevant model parameters of KOI-13b. Furthermore, Bayesian model testing confirms that the orbit of KOI-13b has a detectable eccentricity.

  6. Bayesian Information-Gap Decision Analysis Applied to a CO2 Leakage Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a decision analysis in the presence of uncertainty that combines a non-probabilistic approach (information-gap decision theory) with a probabilistic approach (Bayes' theorem). Bayes' theorem is one of the most popular techniques for probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ). It is effective in many situations, because it updates our understanding of the uncertainties by conditioning on real data using a mathematically rigorous technique. However, the application of Bayes' theorem in science and engineering is not always rigorous. There are two reasons for this: (1) We can enumerate the possible outcomes of dice-rolling, but not the possible outcomes of real-world contamination remediation; (2) We can precisely determine conditional probabilities for coin-tossing, but substantial uncertainty surrounds the conditional probabilities for real-world contamination remediation. Of course, Bayes' theorem is rigorously applicable beyond dice-rolling and coin-tossing, but even in cases that are constructed to be simple with ostensibly good probabilistic models, applying Bayes' theorem to the real world may not work as well as one might expect. Bayes' theorem is rigorously applicable only if all possible events can be described, and their conditional probabilities can be derived rigorously. Outside of this domain, it may still be useful, but its use lacks at least some rigor. The information-gap approach allows us to circumvent some of the highlighted shortcomings of Bayes' theorem. In particular, it provides a way to account for possibilities beyond those described by our models, and a way to deal with uncertainty in the conditional distribution that forms the core of Bayesian analysis. We have developed a three-tiered technique enables one to make scientifically defensible decisions in the face of severe uncertainty such as is found in many geologic problems. To demonstrate the applicability, we apply the technique to a CO2 leakage problem. The goal is to

  7. Topographic factor analysis: a Bayesian model for inferring brain networks from neural data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy R Manning

    Full Text Available The neural patterns recorded during a neuroscientific experiment reflect complex interactions between many brain regions, each comprising millions of neurons. However, the measurements themselves are typically abstracted from that underlying structure. For example, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI datasets comprise a time series of three-dimensional images, where each voxel in an image (roughly reflects the activity of the brain structure(s-located at the corresponding point in space-at the time the image was collected. FMRI data often exhibit strong spatial correlations, whereby nearby voxels behave similarly over time as the underlying brain structure modulates its activity. Here we develop topographic factor analysis (TFA, a technique that exploits spatial correlations in fMRI data to recover the underlying structure that the images reflect. Specifically, TFA casts each brain image as a weighted sum of spatial functions. The parameters of those spatial functions, which may be learned by applying TFA to an fMRI dataset, reveal the locations and sizes of the brain structures activated while the data were collected, as well as the interactions between those structures.

  8. ECO INVESTMENT PROJECT MANAGEMENT THROUGH TIME APPLYING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara Gvozdenović

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available he concept of project management expresses an indispensable approach to investment projects. Time is often the most important factor in these projects. The artificial neural network is the paradigm of data processing, which is inspired by the one used by the biological brain, and it is used in numerous, different fields, among which is the project management. This research is oriented to application of artificial neural networks in managing time of investment project. The artificial neural networks are used to define the optimistic, the most probable and the pessimistic time in PERT method. The program package Matlab: Neural Network Toolbox is used in data simulation. The feed-forward back propagation network is chosen.

  9. Prioritizing Policies for Pro-Poor Growth : Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klump, R.; Prüfer, P.

    2006-01-01

    Pro-Poor Growth (PPG) is the vision of combining high growth rates with poverty reduction.Due to the myriad of possible determinants of growth and poverty a unique theoretical model for guiding empirical work on PPG is absent, though.Bayesian Model Averaging is a statistically robust framework for t

  10. Artificial neural networks applied to forecasting time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaño Moreno, Juan J; Palmer Pol, Alfonso; Muñoz Gracia, Pilar

    2011-04-01

    This study offers a description and comparison of the main models of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) which have proved to be useful in time series forecasting, and also a standard procedure for the practical application of ANN in this type of task. The Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Base Function (RBF), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models are analyzed. With this aim in mind, we use a time series made up of 244 time points. A comparative study establishes that the error made by the four neural network models analyzed is less than 10%. In accordance with the interpretation criteria of this performance, it can be concluded that the neural network models show a close fit regarding their forecasting capacity. The model with the best performance is the RBF, followed by the RNN and MLP. The GRNN model is the one with the worst performance. Finally, we analyze the advantages and limitations of ANN, the possible solutions to these limitations, and provide an orientation towards future research.

  11. A Fast C++ Implementation of Neural Network Backpropagation Training Algorithm: Application to Bayesian Optimal Image Demosaicing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Qing Wang

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Recent years have seen a surge of interest in multilayer neural networks fueled by their successful applications in numerous image processing and computer vision tasks. In this article, we describe a C++ implementation of the stochastic gradient descent to train a multilayer neural network, where a fast and accurate acceleration of tanh(· is achieved with linear interpolation. As an example of application, we present a neural network able to deliver state-of-the-art performance in image demosaicing.

  12. Intelligent Sensor Based Bayesian Neural Network for Combined Parameters and States Estimation of a Brushed DC Motor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hacene MELLAH

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN model to estimate simultaneously, parameters and state of a brushed DC machine. The proposed ANN estimator is novel in the sense that his estimates simultaneously temperature, speed and rotor resistance based only on the measurement of the voltage and current inputs. Many types of ANN estimators have been designed by a lot of researchers during the last two decades. Each type is designed for a specific application. The thermal behavior of the motor is very slow, which leads to large amounts of data sets. The standard ANN use often Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP with Levenberg-Marquardt Backpropagation (LMBP, among the limits of LMBP in the case of large number of data, so the use of MLP based on LMBP is no longer valid in our case. As solution, we propose the use of Cascade-Forward Neural Network (CFNN based Bayesian Regulation backpropagation (BRBP. To test our estimator robustness a random white-Gaussian noise has been added to the sets. The proposed estimator is in our viewpoint accurate and robust.

  13. Convolutional Neural Networks Applied to House Numbers Digit Classification

    CERN Document Server

    Sermanet, Pierre; LeCun, Yann

    2012-01-01

    We classify digits of real-world house numbers using convolutional neural networks (ConvNets). ConvNets are hierarchical feature learning neural networks whose structure is biologically inspired. Unlike many popular vision approaches that are hand-designed, ConvNets can automatically learn a unique set of features optimized for a given task. We augmented the traditional ConvNet architecture by learning multi-stage features and by using Lp pooling and establish a new state-of-the-art of 94.85% accuracy on the SVHN dataset (45.2% error improvement). Furthermore, we analyze the benefits of different pooling methods and multi-stage features in ConvNets. The source code and a tutorial are available at eblearn.sf.net.

  14. APPLIED CRYPTOGRAPHY IN PASSWORD ENCRYPTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venkata Karthik Gullapalli

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Today the world depends on computers and information systems for processing information in various fields. These systems must be developed in such a way that they are less vulnerable to attacks and more reliable and secured. These systems are more vulnerable to technical issues and many cases of data trawling have been reported as a result of password breaches. Encryption and decryption plays a major role in the modern era as the rate of data flow increased tremendously. Social networking sites such as Facebook and Google stores the most important and private data of people electronically in the servers. Artificial intelligence took over many functions of computer systems in different fields including data security. Neural networks process information with care and certainty like human mind does. This paper proposes a methodology to implement encryption and decryption using the feed forward neural networks and to improve the security of information systems.

  15. Applying Neural Network in Evaporative Cooler Performance Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIANG Tian-wei; SHEN Heng-gen; HUANG Xiang; XUAN Yong-mei

    2007-01-01

    The back-propagation (BP) neural network is created to predict the performance of a direct evaporative cooling (DEC) air conditioner with GLASdek pads. The experiment data about the performance of the DEC air conditioner are obtained. Some experiment data are used to train the network until these data can approximate a function, then, simulate the network with the remanent data. The predicted result shows satisfying effects.

  16. A hybrid approach to monthly streamflow forecasting: Integrating hydrological model outputs into a Bayesian artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphrey, Greer B.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Dandy, Graeme C.; Maier, Holger R.

    2016-09-01

    Monthly streamflow forecasts are needed to support water resources decision making in the South East of South Australia, where baseflow represents a significant proportion of the total streamflow and soil moisture and groundwater are important predictors of runoff. To address this requirement, the utility of a hybrid monthly streamflow forecasting approach is explored, whereby simulated soil moisture from the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to represent initial catchment conditions in a Bayesian artificial neural network (ANN) statistical forecasting model. To assess the performance of this hybrid forecasting method, a comparison is undertaken of the relative performances of the Bayesian ANN, the GR4J conceptual model and the hybrid streamflow forecasting approach for producing 1-month ahead streamflow forecasts at three key locations in the South East of South Australia. Particular attention is paid to the quantification of uncertainty in each of the forecast models and the potential for reducing forecast uncertainty by using the hybrid approach is considered. Case study results suggest that the hybrid models developed in this study are able to take advantage of the complementary strengths of both the ANN models and the GR4J conceptual models. This was particularly the case when forecasting high flows, where the hybrid models were shown to outperform the two individual modelling approaches in terms of the accuracy of the median forecasts, as well as reliability and resolution of the forecast distributions. In addition, the forecast distributions generated by the hybrid models were up to 8 times more precise than those based on climatology; thus, providing a significant improvement on the information currently available to decision makers.

  17. Discovering complex interrelationships between socioeconomic status and health in Europe: A case study applying Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Galvez, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Studies assume that socioeconomic status determines individuals' states of health, but how does health determine socioeconomic status? And how does this association vary depending on contextual differences? To answer this question, our study uses an additive Bayesian Networks model to explain the interrelationships between health and socioeconomic determinants using complex and messy data. This model has been used to find the most probable structure in a network to describe the interdependence of these factors in five European welfare state regimes. The advantage of this study is that it offers a specific picture to describe the complex interrelationship between socioeconomic determinants and health, producing a network that is controlled by socio-demographic factors such as gender and age. The present work provides a general framework to describe and understand the complex association between socioeconomic determinants and health.

  18. Bayesian Source Separation Applied to Identifying Complex Organic Molecules in Space

    CERN Document Server

    Knuth, Kevin H; Choinsky, Joshua; Maunu, Haley A; Carbon, Duane F

    2014-01-01

    Emission from a class of benzene-based molecules known as Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) dominates the infrared spectrum of star-forming regions. The observed emission appears to arise from the combined emission of numerous PAH species, each with its unique spectrum. Linear superposition of the PAH spectra identifies this problem as a source separation problem. It is, however, of a formidable class of source separation problems given that different PAH sources potentially number in the hundreds, even thousands, and there is only one measured spectral signal for a given astrophysical site. Fortunately, the source spectra of the PAHs are known, but the signal is also contaminated by other spectral sources. We describe our ongoing work in developing Bayesian source separation techniques relying on nested sampling in conjunction with an ON/OFF mechanism enabling simultaneous estimation of the probability that a particular PAH species is present and its contribution to the spectrum.

  19. Bayesian probability theory applied to the space group problem in powder diffraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markvardsen, A. J.

    2004-11-01

    Crystal structure determination from powder diffraction data has become a viable option for molecules with less than 50 non-hydrogen atoms in the asymmetric unit and this includes the majority of compounds of pharmaceutical interest. The solution of crystal structures, including space group determination, is more challenging from powder diffraction data than from single crystal diffraction data. Here, it will be demonstrated how a Bayesian probability analysis of this problem has helped to provide a new algorithm for the determination of the space group symmetry of a crystal from powder diffraction data. Specifically, the relative probabilities of different extinction symbols are accessed within a particular crystal system. Examples will be presented to illustrate this approach.

  20. Artificial metaplasticity neural network applied to credit scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcano-Cedeño, Alexis; Marin-de-la-Barcena, A; Jimenez-Trillo, J; Piñuela, J A; Andina, D

    2011-08-01

    The assessment of the risk of default on credit is important for financial institutions. Different Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been suggested to tackle the credit scoring problem, however, the obtained error rates are often high. In the search for the best ANN algorithm for credit scoring, this paper contributes with the application of an ANN Training Algorithm inspired by the neurons' biological property of metaplasticity. This algorithm is especially efficient when few patterns of a class are available, or when information inherent to low probability events is crucial for a successful application, as weight updating is overemphasized in the less frequent activations than in the more frequent ones. Two well-known and readily available such as: Australia and German data sets has been used to test the algorithm. The results obtained by AMMLP shown have been superior to state-of-the-art classification algorithms in credit scoring.

  1. The Theory of Neural Cognition Applied to Robotics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude F. Touzet

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Theory of neural Cognition (TnC states that the brain does not process information, it only represents information (i.e., it is 'only' a memory. The TnC explains how a memory can become an actor pursuing various goals, and proposes explanations concerning the implementation of a large variety of cognitive abilities, such as attention, memory, language, planning, intelligence, emotions, motivation, pleasure, consciousness and personality. The explanatory power of this new framework extends further though, to tackle special psychological states such as hypnosis, the placebo effect and sleep, and brain diseases such as autism, Alzheimer’s disease and schizophrenia. The most interesting findings concern robotics: because the TnC considers the cortical column to be the key cognitive unit (instead of the neuron, it reduces the requirements for a brain implementation to only 160,000 units (instead of 86 billion. A robot exhibiting human-like cognitive abilities is therefore within our reach.

  2. Neural network applied to elemental archaeological Marajoara ceramic compositions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toyota, Rosimeiri G.; Munita, Casimiro S., E-mail: rosimeiritoy@yahoo.com.b, E-mail: camunita@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Boscarioli, Clodis, E-mail: boscarioli@gmail.co [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana, Cascavel, PR (Brazil). Centro de Ciencias Exatas e Tecnologicas. Colegiado de Informatica; Hernandez, Emilio D.M., E-mail: boscarioli@gmail.co [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Escola Politecnica; Neves, Eduardo G.; Demartini, Celia C., E-mail: eduardo@pq.cnpq.b [Museu de Arqueologia e Etnologia (MAE/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In the last decades several analytical techniques have been used in archaeological ceramics studies. However, instrumental neutron activation analysis, INAA, employing gamma-ray spectrometry seems to be the most suitable technique because it is a simple analytical method in its purely instrumental form. The purpose of this work was to determine the concentration of Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Eu, Fe, Hf, K, La, Lu, Na, Nd, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sm, Ta, Tb, Th, U, Yb, and Zn in 160 original marajoara ceramic fragments by INAA. Marajoara ceramics culture was sophisticated and well developed. This culture reached its peak during the V and XIV centuries in Marajo Island located on the Amazon River delta area in Brazil. The purpose of the quantitative data was to identify compositionally homogeneous groups within the database. Having this in mind, the data set was first converted to base-10 logarithms to compensate for the differences in magnitude between major elements and trace elements, and also to yield a closer to normal distribution for several trace elements. After that, the data were analyzed using the Mahalanobis distance and using the lambda Wilks as critical value to identify the outliers. The similarities among the samples were studied by means of cluster analysis, principal components analysis and discriminant analysis. Additional confirmation of these groups was made by using elemental concentration bivariate plots. The results showed that there were two very well defined groups in the data set. In addition, the database was studied using artificial neural network with unsupervised learning strategy known as self-organizing maps to classify the marajoara ceramics. The experiments carried out showed that self-organizing maps artificial neural network is capable of discriminating ceramic fragments like multivariate statistical methods, and, again the results showed that the database was formed by two groups. (author)

  3. Review of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) applied to corrosion monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mabbutt, S.; Picton, P.; Shaw, P.; Black, S.

    2012-05-01

    The assessment of corrosion within an engineering system often forms an important aspect of condition monitoring but it is a parameter that is inherently difficult to measure and predict. The electrochemical nature of the corrosion process allows precise measurements to be made. Advances in instruments, techniques and software have resulted in devices that can gather data and perform various analysis routines that provide parameters to identify corrosion type and corrosion rate. Although corrosion rates are important they are only useful where general or uniform corrosion dominates. However, pitting, inter-granular corrosion and environmentally assisted cracking (stress corrosion) are examples of corrosion mechanisms that can be dangerous and virtually invisible to the naked eye. Electrochemical noise (EN) monitoring is a very useful technique for detecting these types of corrosion and it is the only non-invasive electrochemical corrosion monitoring technique commonly available. Modern instrumentation is extremely sensitive to changes in the system and new experimental configurations for gathering EN data have been proven. In this paper the identification of localised corrosion by different data analysis routines has been reviewed. In particular the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) analysis to corrosion data is of key interest. In most instances data needs to be used with conventional theory to obtain meaningful information and relies on expert interpretation. Recently work has been carried out using artificial neural networks to investigate various types of corrosion data in attempts to predict corrosion behaviour with some success. This work aims to extend this earlier work to identify reliable electrochemical indicators of localised corrosion onset and propagation stages.

  4. Applying Artificial Neural Network to Predict Semiconductor Machine Outliers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keng-Chieh Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Advanced semiconductor processes are produced by very sophisticated and complex machines. The demand of higher precision for the monitoring system is becoming more vital when the devices are shrunk into smaller sizes. The high quality and high solution checking mechanism must rely on the advanced information systems, such as fault detection and classification (FDC. FDC can timely detect the deviations of the machine parameters when the parameters deviate from the original value and exceed the range of the specification. This study adopts backpropagation neural network model and gray relational analysis as tools to analyze the data. This study uses FDC data to detect the semiconductor machine outliers. Data collected for network training are in three different intervals: 6-month period, 3-month period, and one-month period. The results demonstrate that 3-month period has the best result. However, 6-month period has the worst result. The findings indicate that machine deteriorates quickly after continuous use for 6 months. The equipment engineers and managers can take care of this phenomenon and make the production yield better.

  5. A SIMULATION OF THE PENICILLIN G PRODUCTION BIOPROCESS APPLYING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.J.G. da Cruz

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available The production of penicillin G by Penicillium chrysogenum IFO 8644 was simulated employing a feedforward neural network with three layers. The neural network training procedure used an algorithm combining two procedures: random search and backpropagation. The results of this approach were very promising, and it was observed that the neural network was able to accurately describe the nonlinear behavior of the process. Besides, the results showed that this technique can be successfully applied to control process algorithms due to its long processing time and its flexibility in the incorporation of new data

  6. Reducing biases in regional climate downscaling by applying Bayesian model averaging on large-scale forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Hongwei [APEC Climate Center, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Wang, Bin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2012-11-15

    Reduction of uncertainty in large-scale lateral-boundary forcing in regional climate modeling is a critical issue for improving the performance of regional climate downscaling. Numerical simulations of 1998 East Asian summer monsoon were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecast model forced by four different reanalysis datasets, their equal-weight ensemble, and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) ensemble means. Large discrepancies were found among experiments forced by the four individual reanalysis datasets mainly due to the uncertainties in the moisture field of large-scale forcing over ocean. We used satellite water-vapor-path data as observed truth-and-training data to determine the posterior probability (weight) for each forcing dataset using the BMA method. The experiment forced by the equal-weight ensemble reduced the circulation biases significantly but reduced the precipitation biases only moderately. However, the experiment forced by the BMA ensemble outperformed not only the experiments forced by individual reanalysis datasets but also the equal-weight ensemble experiment in simulating the seasonal mean circulation and precipitation. These results suggest that the BMA ensemble method is an effective method for reducing the uncertainties in lateral-boundary forcing and improving model performance in regional climate downscaling. (orig.)

  7. Bayesian statistics applied to the location of the source of explosions at Stromboli Volcano, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccorotti, G.; Chouet, B.; Martini, M.; Scarpa, R.

    1998-01-01

    We present a method for determining the location and spatial extent of the source of explosions at Stromboli Volcano, Italy, based on a Bayesian inversion of the slowness vector derived from frequency-slowness analyses of array data. The method searches for source locations that minimize the error between the expected and observed slowness vectors. For a given set of model parameters, the conditional probability density function of slowness vectors is approximated by a Gaussian distribution of expected errors. The method is tested with synthetics using a five-layer velocity model derived for the north flank of Stromboli and a smoothed velocity model derived from a power-law approximation of the layered structure. Application to data from Stromboli allows for a detailed examination of uncertainties in source location due to experimental errors and incomplete knowledge of the Earth model. Although the solutions are not constrained in the radial direction, excellent resolution is achieved in both transverse and depth directions. Under the assumption that the horizontal extent of the source does not exceed the crater dimension, the 90% confidence region in the estimate of the explosive source location corresponds to a small volume extending from a depth of about 100 m to a maximum depth of about 300 m beneath the active vents, with a maximum likelihood source region located in the 120- to 180-m-depth interval.

  8. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  9. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2003-01-01

    As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

  10. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  11. Convolutional neural networks applied to neutrino events in a liquid argon time projection chamber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acciarri, R.; Adams, C.; An, R.; Asaadi, J.; Auger, M.; Bagby, L.; Baller, B.; Barr, G.; Bass, M.; Bay, F.; Bishai, M.; Blake, A.; Bolton, T.; Bugel, L.; Camilleri, L.; Caratelli, D.; Carls, B.; Castillo Fernandez, R.; Cavanna, F.; Chen, H.; Church, E.; Cianci, D.; Collin, G. H.; Conrad, J. M.; Convery, M.; Crespo-Anadón, J. I.; Del Tutto, M.; Devitt, D.; Dytman, S.; Eberly, B.; Ereditato, A.; Escudero Sanchez, L.; Esquivel, J.; Fleming, B. T.; Foreman, W.; Furmanski, A. P.; Garvey, G. T.; Genty, V.; Goeldi, D.; Gollapinni, S.; Graf, N.; Gramellini, E.; Greenlee, H.; Grosso, R.; Guenette, R.; Hackenburg, A.; Hamilton, P.; Hen, O.; Hewes, J.; Hill, C.; Ho, J.; Horton-Smith, G.; James, C.; de Vries, J. Jan; Jen, C.-M.; Jiang, L.; Johnson, R. A.; Jones, B. J. P.; Joshi, J.; Jostlein, H.; Kaleko, D.; Karagiorgi, G.; Ketchum, W.; Kirby, B.; Kirby, M.; Kobilarcik, T.; Kreslo, I.; Laube, A.; Li, Y.; Lister, A.; Littlejohn, B. R.; Lockwitz, S.; Lorca, D.; Louis, W. C.; Luethi, M.; Lundberg, B.; Luo, X.; Marchionni, A.; Mariani, C.; Marshall, J.; Martinez Caicedo, D. A.; Meddage, V.; Miceli, T.; Mills, G. B.; Moon, J.; Mooney, M.; Moore, C. D.; Mousseau, J.; Murrells, R.; Naples, D.; Nienaber, P.; Nowak, J.; Palamara, O.; Paolone, V.; Papavassiliou, V.; Pate, S. F.; Pavlovic, Z.; Porzio, D.; Pulliam, G.; Qian, X.; Raaf, J. L.; Rafique, A.; Rochester, L.; von Rohr, C. Rudolf; Russell, B.; Schmitz, D. W.; Schukraft, A.; Seligman, W.; Shaevitz, M. H.; Sinclair, J.; Snider, E. L.; Soderberg, M.; Söldner-Rembold, S.; Soleti, S. R.; Spentzouris, P.; Spitz, J.; St. John, J.; Strauss, T.; Szelc, A. M.; Tagg, N.; Terao, K.; Thomson, M.; Toups, M.; Tsai, Y.-T.; Tufanli, S.; Usher, T.; Van de Water, R. G.; Viren, B.; Weber, M.; Weston, J.; Wickremasinghe, D. A.; Wolbers, S.; Wongjirad, T.; Woodruff, K.; Yang, T.; Zeller, G. P.; Zennamo, J.; Zhang, C.

    2017-03-01

    We present several studies of convolutional neural networks applied to data coming from the MicroBooNE detector, a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). The algorithms studied include the classification of single particle images, the localization of single particle and neutrino interactions in an image, and the detection of a simulated neutrino event overlaid with cosmic ray backgrounds taken from real detector data. These studies demonstrate the potential of convolutional neural networks for particle identification or event detection on simulated neutrino interactions. We also address technical issues that arise when applying this technique to data from a large LArTPC at or near ground level.

  12. Convolutional Neural Networks Applied to Neutrino Events in a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber

    CERN Document Server

    Acciarri, R; An, R; Asaadi, J; Auger, M; Bagby, L; Baller, B; Barr, G; Bass, M; Bay, F; Bishai, M; Blake, A; Bolton, T; Bugel, L; Camilleri, L; Caratelli, D; Carls, B; Fernandez, R Castillo; Cavanna, F; Chen, H; Church, E; Cianci, D; Collin, G H; Conrad, J M; Convery, M; Crespo-Anadón, J I; Del Tutto, M; Devitt, D; Dytman, S; Eberly, B; Ereditato, A; Sanchez, L Escudero; Esquivel, J; Fleming, B T; Foreman, W; Furmanski, A P; Garvey, G T; Genty, V; Goeldi, D; Gollapinni, S; Graf, N; Gramellini, E; Greenlee, H; Grosso, R; Guenette, R; Hackenburg, A; Hamilton, P; Hen, O; Hewes, J; Hill, C; Ho, J; Horton-Smith, G; James, C; de Vries, J Jan; Jen, C -M; Jiang, L; Johnson, R A; Jones, B J P; Joshi, J; Jostlein, H; Kaleko, D; Karagiorgi, G; Ketchum, W; Kirby, B; Kirby, M; Kobilarcik, T; Kreslo, I; Laube, A; Li, Y; Lister, A; Littlejohn, B R; Lockwitz, S; Lorca, D; Louis, W C; Luethi, M; Lundberg, B; Luo, X; Marchionni, A; Mariani, C; Marshall, J; Caicedo, D A Martinez; Meddage, V; Miceli, T; Mills, G B; Moon, J; Mooney, M; Moore, C D; Mousseau, J; Murrells, R; Naples, D; Nienaber, P; Nowak, J; Palamara, O; Paolone, V; Papavassiliou, V; Pate, S F; Pavlovic, Z; Porzio, D; Pulliam, G; Qian, X; Raaf, J L; Rafique, A; Rochester, L; von Rohr, C Rudolf; Russell, B; Schmitz, D W; Schukraft, A; Seligman, W; Shaevitz, M H; Sinclair, J; Snider, E L; Soderberg, M; Söldner-Rembold, S; Soleti, S R; Spentzouris, P; Spitz, J; John, J St; Strauss, T; Szelc, A M; Tagg, N; Terao, K; Thomson, M; Toups, M; Tsai, Y -T; Tufanli, S; Usher, T; Van de Water, R G; Viren, B; Weber, M; Weston, J; Wickremasinghe, D A; Wolbers, S; Wongjirad, T; Woodruff, K; Yang, T; Zeller, G P; Zennamo, J; Zhang, C

    2016-01-01

    We present several studies of convolutional neural networks applied to data coming from the MicroBooNE detector, a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). The algorithms studied include the classification of single particle images, the localization of single particle and neutrino interactions in an image, and the detection of a simulated neutrino event overlaid with cosmic ray backgrounds taken from real detector data. These studies demonstrate the potential of convolutional neural networks for particle identification or event detection on simulated neutrino interactions. We also address technical issues that arise when applying this technique to data from a large LArTPC at or near ground level.

  13. Probabilistic neural networks using Bayesian decision strategies and a modified Gompertz model for growth phase classification in the batch culture of Bacillus subtilis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon; Nazmul Karim M

    2001-01-01

    Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) were used in conjunction with the Gompertz model for bacterial growth to classify the lag, logarithmic, and stationary phases in a batch process. Using the fermentation time and the optical density of diluted cell suspensions, sampled from a culture of Bacillus subtilis, PNNs enabled a reliable determination of the growth phases. Based on a Bayesian decision strategy, the Gompertz based PNN used newly proposed definition of the lag and logarithmic phases to estimate the latent, logarithmic and stationary phases. This network topology has the potential for use with on-line turbidimeter for the automation and control of cultivation processes.

  14. Neural networks applied to inverters control; Les reseaux de neurones appliques a la commande des convertisseurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jammes, B.; Marpinard, J.C.

    1995-12-31

    Neural networks are scarcely applied to power electronics. This attempt includes two different topics: optimal control and computerized simulation. The learning has been performed through output error feedback. For implementation, a buck converter has been used as a voltage pulse generator. (D.L.) 7 refs.

  15. Artificial neural networks applied to quantitative elemental analysis of organic material using PIXE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Correa, R. [Universidad Tecnologica Metropolitana, Departamento de Fisica, Av. Jose Pedro Alessandri 1242, Nunoa, Santiago (Chile)]. E-mail: rcorrea@utem.cl; Chesta, M.A. [Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Facultad de Matematica, Astronomia y Fisica, Medina Allende s/n Ciudad Universitaria, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina)]. E-mail: chesta@famaf.unc.edu.ar; Morales, J.R. [Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Fisica, Las Palmeras 3425, Nunoa, Santiago (Chile)]. E-mail: rmorales@uchile.cl; Dinator, M.I. [Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Fisica, Las Palmeras 3425, Nunoa, Santiago (Chile)]. E-mail: mdinator@uchile.cl; Requena, I. [Universidad de Granada, Departamento de Ciencias de la Computacion e Inteligencia Artificial, Daniel Saucedo Aranda s/n, 18071 Granada (Spain)]. E-mail: requena@decsai.ugr.es; Vila, I. [Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Ecologia, Las Palmeras 3425, Nunoa, Santiago (Chile)]. E-mail: limnolog@uchile.cl

    2006-08-15

    An artificial neural network (ANN) has been trained with real-sample PIXE (particle X-ray induced emission) spectra of organic substances. Following the training stage ANN was applied to a subset of similar samples thus obtaining the elemental concentrations in muscle, liver and gills of Cyprinus carpio. Concentrations obtained with the ANN method are in full agreement with results from one standard analytical procedure, showing the high potentiality of ANN in PIXE quantitative analyses.

  16. Ant colony optimization and neural networks applied to nuclear power plant monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Gean Ribeiro dos; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de; Pereira, Iraci Martinez, E-mail: gean@usp.br, E-mail: delvonei@ipen.br, E-mail: martinez@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    A recurring challenge in production processes is the development of monitoring and diagnosis systems. Those systems help on detecting unexpected changes and interruptions, preventing losses and mitigating risks. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been extensively used in creating monitoring systems. Usually the ANNs created to solve this kind of problem are created by taking into account only parameters as the number of inputs, outputs, and hidden layers. The result networks are generally fully connected and have no improvements in its topology. This work intends to use an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm to create a tuned neural network. The ACO search algorithm will use Back Error Propagation (BP) to optimize the network topology by suggesting the best neuron connections. The result ANN will be applied to monitoring the IEA-R1 research reactor at IPEN. (author)

  17. Unsupervised learning applied in MER and ECG signals through Gaussians mixtures with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and Variational Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas Cardona, Hernán Darío; Orozco, Álvaro Ángel; Álvarez, Mauricio A

    2013-01-01

    Automatic identification of biosignals is one of the more studied fields in biomedical engineering. In this paper, we present an approach for the unsupervised recognition of biomedical signals: Microelectrode Recordings (MER) and Electrocardiography signals (ECG). The unsupervised learning is based in classic and bayesian estimation theory. We employ gaussian mixtures models with two estimation methods. The first is derived from the frequentist estimation theory, known as Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The second is obtained from bayesian probabilistic estimation and it is called variational inference. In this framework, both methods are used for parameters estimation of Gaussian mixtures. The mixtures models are used for unsupervised pattern classification, through the responsibility matrix. The algorithms are applied in two real databases acquired in Parkinson's disease surgeries and electrocardiograms. The results show an accuracy over 85% in MER and 90% in ECG for identification of two classes. These results are statistically equal or even better than parametric (Naive Bayes) and nonparametric classifiers (K-nearest neighbor).

  18. APPLYING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK OPTIMIZED BY FIREWORKS ALGORITHM FOR STOCK PRICE ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuat Thanh Tung

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Stock prediction is to determine the future value of a company stock dealt on an exchange. It plays a crucial role to raise the profit gained by firms and investors. Over the past few years, many methods have been developed in which plenty of efforts focus on the machine learning framework achieving the promising results. In this paper, an approach based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN optimized by Fireworks algorithm and data preprocessing by Haar Wavelet is applied to estimate the stock prices. The system was trained and tested with real data of various companies collected from Yahoo Finance. The obtained results are encouraging.

  19. A Novel Neural Network Based Method Developed for Digit Recognition Applied to Automatic Speed Sign Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanene Rouabeh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This Paper presents a new hybrid technique for digit recognition applied to the speed limit sign recognition task. The complete recognition system consists in the detection and recognition of the speed signs in RGB images. A pretreatment is applied to extract the pictogram from a detected circular road sign, and then the task discussed in this work is employed to recognize digit candidates. To realize a compromise between performances, reduced execution time and optimized memory resources, the developed method is based on a conjoint use of a Neural Network and a Decision Tree. A simple Network is employed firstly to classify the extracted candidates into three classes and secondly a small Decision Tree is charged to determine the exact information. This combination is used to reduce the size of the Network as well as the memory resources utilization. The evaluation of the technique and the comparison with existent methods show the effectiveness.

  20. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  1. Using multiple regression, Bayesian networks and artificial neural networks for prediction of total egg production in European quails based on earlier expressed phenotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felipe, Vivian P S; Silva, Martinho A; Valente, Bruno D; Rosa, Guilherme J M

    2015-04-01

    The prediction of total egg production (TEP) potential in poultry is an important task to aid optimized management decisions in commercial enterprises. The objective of the present study was to compare different modeling approaches for prediction of TEP in meat type quails (Coturnix coturnix coturnix) using phenotypes such as weight, weight gain, egg production and egg quality measurements. Phenotypic data on 30 traits from two lines (L1, n=180; and L2, n=205) of quail were modeled to predict TEP. Prediction models included multiple linear regression and artificial neural network (ANN). Moreover, Bayesian network (BN) and a stepwise approach were used as variable selection methods. BN results showed that TEP is independent from other earlier expressed traits when conditioned on egg production from 35 to 80 days of age (EP1). In addition, the prediction accuracy was much lower when EP1 was not included in the model. The best predictive model was ANN, after feature selection, showing prediction correlations of r=0.792 and r=0.714 for L1 and L2, respectively. In conclusion, machine learning methods may be useful, but reasonable prediction accuracies are obtained only when partial egg production measurements are included in the model.

  2. GMDH and neural networks applied in monitoring and fault detection in sensors in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueno, Elaine Inacio [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia, Guarulhos, SP (Brazil); Pereira, Iraci Martinez; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e, E-mail: martinez@ipen.b, E-mail: teixeira@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    In this work a new monitoring and fault detection methodology was developed using GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) algorithm and artificial neural networks (ANNs) which was applied in the IEA-R1 research reactor at IPEN. The monitoring and fault detection system was developed in two parts: the first was dedicated to preprocess information, using GMDH algorithm; and the second to the process information using ANNs. The preprocess information was divided in two parts. In the first part, the GMDH algorithm was used to generate a better database estimate, called matrix z, which was used to train the ANNs. In the second part the GMDH was used to study the best set of variables to be used to train the ANNs, resulting in a best monitoring variable estimative. The methodology was developed and tested using five different models: one theoretical model and for models using different sets of reactor variables. After an exhausting study dedicated to the sensors monitoring, the fault detection in sensors was developed by simulating faults in the sensors database using values of +5%, +10%, +15% and +20% in these sensors database. The good results obtained through the present methodology shows the viability of using GMDH algorithm in the study of the best input variables to the ANNs, thus making possible the use of these methods in the implementation of a new monitoring and fault detection methodology applied in sensors. (author)

  3. Industrial defect discrimination applying infrared imaging spectroscopy and artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Allende, Pilar Beatriz; Conde, Olga M.; Madruga, Francisco J.; Cubillas, Ana M.; Lopez-Higuera, Jose M.

    2008-03-01

    A non-intrusive infrared sensor for the detection of spurious elements in an industrial raw material chain has been developed. The system is an extension to the whole near infrared range of the spectrum of a previously designed system based on the Vis-NIR range (400 - 1000 nm). It incorporates a hyperspectral imaging spectrograph able to register simultaneously the NIR reflected spectrum of the material under study along all the points of an image line. The working material has been different tobacco leaf blends mixed with typical spurious elements of this field such as plastics, cardboards, etc. Spurious elements are discriminated automatically by an artificial neural network able to perform the classification with a high degree of accuracy. Due to the high amount of information involved in the process, Principal Component Analysis is first applied to perform data redundancy removal. By means of the extension to the whole NIR range of the spectrum, from 1000 to 2400 nm, the characterization of the material under test is highly improved. The developed technique could be applied to the classification and discrimination of other materials, and, as a consequence of its non-contact operation it is particularly suitable for food quality control.

  4. Identification of thin elastic isotropic plate parameters applying Guided Wave Measurement and Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabisek, Ewa; Waszczyszyn, Zenon

    2015-12-01

    A new hybrid computational system for material identification (HCSMI) is presented, developed for the identification of homogeneous, elastic, isotropic plate parameters. Attention is focused on the construction of dispersion curves, related to Lamb waves. The main idea of the system HCSMI lies in separation of two essential basic computational stages, corresponding to direct or inverse analyses. In the frame of the first stage an experimental dispersion curve DCexp is constructed, applying Guided Wave Measurement (GWM) technique. Then, in the other stage, corresponding to the inverse analysis, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is trained 'off line'. The substitution of results of the first stage, treated as inputs of the ANN, gives the values of identified plate parameters. In such a way no iteration is needed, unlike to the classical approach. In such an approach, the "distance" between the approximate experimental curves DCexp and dispersion curves DCnum obtained in the direct analysis, is iteratively minimized. Two case studies are presented, corresponding either to measurements in laboratory tests or those related to pseudo-experimental noisy data of computer simulations. The obtained results prove high numerical efficiency of HCSMI, applied to the identification of aluminum plate parameters.

  5. A Bayesian two part model applied to analyze risk factors of adult mortality with application to data from Namibia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence N Kazembe

    Full Text Available Despite remarkable gains in life expectancy and declining mortality in the 21st century, in many places mostly in developing countries, adult mortality has increased in part due to HIV/AIDS or continued abject poverty levels. Moreover many factors including behavioural, socio-economic and demographic variables work simultaneously to impact on risk of mortality. Understanding risk factors of adult mortality is crucial towards designing appropriate public health interventions. In this paper we proposed a structured additive two-part random effects regression model for adult mortality data. Our proposal assumed two processes: (i whether death occurred in the household (prevalence part, and (ii number of reported deaths, if death did occur (severity part. The proposed model specification therefore consisted of two generalized linear mixed models (GLMM with correlated random effects that permitted structured and unstructured spatial components at regional level. Specifically, the first part assumed a GLMM with a logistic link and the second part explored a count model following either a Poisson or negative binomial distribution. The model was used to analyse adult mortality data of 25,793 individuals from the 2006/2007 Namibian DHS data. Inference is based on the Bayesian framework with appropriate priors discussed.

  6. Applying long short-term memory recurrent neural networks to intrusion detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralf C. Staudemeyer

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We claim that modelling network traffic as a time series with a supervised learning approach, using known genuine and malicious behaviour, improves intrusion detection. To substantiate this, we trained long short-term memory (LSTM recurrent neural networks with the training data provided by the DARPA / KDD Cup ’99 challenge. To identify suitable LSTM-RNN network parameters and structure we experimented with various network topologies. We found networks with four memory blocks containing two cells each offer a good compromise between computational cost and detection performance. We applied forget gates and shortcut connections respectively. A learning rate of 0.1 and up to 1,000 epochs showed good results. We tested the performance on all features and on extracted minimal feature sets respectively. We evaluated different feature sets for the detection of all attacks within one network and also to train networks specialised on individual attack classes. Our results show that the LSTM classifier provides superior performance in comparison to results previously published results of strong static classifiers. With 93.82% accuracy and 22.13 cost, LSTM outperforms the winning entries of the KDD Cup ’99 challenge by far. This is due to the fact that LSTM learns to look back in time and correlate consecutive connection records. For the first time ever, we have demonstrated the usefulness of LSTM networks to intrusion detection.

  7. Implementation of Artificial Neural Network applied for the solution of inverse kinematics of 2-link serial chain manipulator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satish Kumar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a method of artificial neural network applied for the solution of inverse kinematics of 2-link serial chain manipulator. The method is multilayer perceptrons neural network has applied. This unsupervised method learns the functional relationship between input (Cartesian space and output (joint space based on a localized adaptation of the mapping, by using the manipulator itself under joint control and adapting the solution based on a comparison between the resulting locations of the manipulator's end effectors in Cartesian space with the desired location. Even when a manipulator is not available; the approach is still valid if the forward kinematic equations are used as a model of the manipulator. The forward kinematic equations always have a unique solution, and the resulting Neural net can be used as a starting point for further refinement when the manipulator does become available. Artificial neural network especially MLP are used to learn the forward and the inverse kinematic equations of two degrees freedom robot arm. A set of some data sets were first generated as per the formula equation for this the input parameter X and Y coordinates in inches. Using these data sets was basis for the training and evaluation or testing the MLP model. Out of the sets data points, maximum were used as training data and some were used for testing for MLP. Backpropagation algorithm was used for training the network and for updating the desired weights. In this work epoch based training method was applied.

  8. Performance of the 'material Failure Forecast Method' in real-time situations: A Bayesian approach applied on effusive and explosive eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boué, A.; Lesage, P.; Cortés, G.; Valette, B.; Reyes-Dávila, G.; Arámbula-Mendoza, R.; Budi-Santoso, A.

    2016-11-01

    Most attempts of deterministic eruption forecasting are based on the material Failure Forecast Method (FFM). This method assumes that a precursory observable, such as the rate of seismic activity, can be described by a simple power law which presents a singularity at a time close to the eruption onset. Until now, this method has been applied only in a small number of cases, generally for forecasts in hindsight. In this paper, a rigorous Bayesian approach of the FFM designed for real-time applications is applied. Using an automatic recognition system, seismo-volcanic events are detected and classified according to their physical mechanism and time series of probability distributions of the rates of events are calculated. At each time of observation, a Bayesian inversion provides estimations of the exponent of the power law and of the time of eruption, together with their probability density functions. Two criteria are defined in order to evaluate the quality and reliability of the forecasts. Our automated procedure has allowed the analysis of long, continuous seismic time series: 13 years from Volcán de Colima, Mexico, 10 years from Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island, France, and several months from Merapi volcano, Java, Indonesia. The new forecasting approach has been applied to 64 pre-eruptive sequences which present various types of dominant seismic activity (volcano-tectonic or long-period events) and patterns of seismicity with different level of complexity. This has allowed us to test the FFM assumptions, to determine in which conditions the method can be applied, and to quantify the success rate of the forecasts. 62% of the precursory sequences analysed are suitable for the application of FFM and half of the total number of eruptions are successfully forecast in hindsight. In real-time, the method allows for the successful forecast of 36% of all the eruptions considered. Nevertheless, real-time forecasts are successful for 83% of the cases that fulfil the

  9. Applying Bayesian network modelling to understand the links between on-farm biosecurity practice during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak and horse managers' perceptions of a subsequent outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firestone, Simon M; Lewis, Fraser I; Schemann, Kathrin; Ward, Michael P; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Taylor, Melanie R; Dhand, Navneet K

    2014-10-01

    Australia experienced its first ever outbreak of equine influenza in August 2007. Horses on 9359 premises were infected over a period of 5 months before the disease was successfully eradicated through the combination of horse movement controls, on-farm biosecurity and vaccination. In a previous premises-level case-control study of the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in Australia, the protective effect of several variables representing on-farm biosecurity practices were identified. Separately, factors associated with horse managers' perceptions of the effectiveness of biosecurity measures have been identified. In this analysis we applied additive Bayesian network modelling to describe the complex web of associations linking variables representing on-farm human behaviours during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak (compliance or lack thereof with advised personal biosecurity measures) and horse managers' perceptions of the effectiveness of such measures in the event of a subsequent outbreak. Heuristic structure discovery enabled identification of a robust statistical model for 31 variables representing biosecurity practices and perceptions of the owners and managers of 148 premises. The Bayesian graphical network model we present statistically describes the associations linking horse managers' on-farm biosecurity practices during an at-risk period in the 2007 outbreak and their perceptions of whether such measures will be effective in a future outbreak. Practice of barrier infection control measures were associated with a heightened perception of preparedness, whereas horse managers that considered their on-farm biosecurity to be more stringent during the outbreak period than normal practices had a heightened perception of the effectiveness of other measures such as controlling access to the premises. Past performance in an outbreak setting may indeed be a reliable predictor of future perceptions, and should be considered when targeting infection control guidance to

  10. Application of Bayesian regularized BP neural network model for analysis of aquatic ecological data--A case study of chlorophyll-a prediction in Nanzui water area of Dongting Lake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Min; ZENG Guang-ming; XU Xin-yi; HUANG Guo-he; SUN Wei; JIANG Xiao-yun

    2005-01-01

    Bayesian regularized BP neural network(BRBPNN) technique was applied in the chlorophyll-a prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of the network were obtained. After the selection of input variables using stepwise/multiple linear regression method in SPSS 11.0 software, the BRBPNN model was established between chlorophyll-a and environmental parameters, biological parameters. The achieved optimal network structure was 3-11-1 with the correlation coefficients and the mean square errors for the training set and the test set as 0.999 and 0.00078426, 0.981 and 0.0216 respectively. The sum of square weights between each input neuron and the hidden layer of optimal BRBPNN models of different structures indicated that the effect of individual input parameter on chlorophyll-a declined in the order of alga amount > secchi disc depth(SD) > electrical conductivity (EC) . Additionally, it also demonstrated that the contributions of these three factors were the maximal for the change of chlorophyll-a concentration, total phosphorus(TP) and total nitrogen(TN) were the minimal. All the results showed that BRBPNN model was capable of automated regularization parameter selection and thus it may ensure the excellent generation ability and robustness. Thus, this study laid the foundation for the application of BRBPNN model in the analysis of aquatic ecological data(chlorophyll-a prediction) and the explanation about the effective eutrophication treatment measures for Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake.

  11. Applying Novel Time-Frequency Moments Singular Value Decomposition Method and Artificial Neural Networks for Ballistocardiography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koivistoinen Teemu

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available As we know, singular value decomposition (SVD is designed for computing singular values (SVs of a matrix. Then, if it is used for finding SVs of an -by-1 or 1-by- array with elements representing samples of a signal, it will return only one singular value that is not enough to express the whole signal. To overcome this problem, we designed a new kind of the feature extraction method which we call ''time-frequency moments singular value decomposition (TFM-SVD.'' In this new method, we use statistical features of time series as well as frequency series (Fourier transform of the signal. This information is then extracted into a certain matrix with a fixed structure and the SVs of that matrix are sought. This transform can be used as a preprocessing stage in pattern clustering methods. The results in using it indicate that the performance of a combined system including this transform and classifiers is comparable with the performance of using other feature extraction methods such as wavelet transforms. To evaluate TFM-SVD, we applied this new method and artificial neural networks (ANNs for ballistocardiogram (BCG data clustering to look for probable heart disease of six test subjects. BCG from the test subjects was recorded using a chair-like ballistocardiograph, developed in our project. This kind of device combined with automated recording and analysis would be suitable for use in many places, such as home, office, and so forth. The results show that the method has high performance and it is almost insensitive to BCG waveform latency or nonlinear disturbance.

  12. Applying Novel Time-Frequency Moments Singular Value Decomposition Method and Artificial Neural Networks for Ballistocardiography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alpo Värri

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available As we know, singular value decomposition (SVD is designed for computing singular values (SVs of a matrix. Then, if it is used for finding SVs of an m-by-1 or 1-by-m array with elements representing samples of a signal, it will return only one singular value that is not enough to express the whole signal. To overcome this problem, we designed a new kind of the feature extraction method which we call ‘‘time-frequency moments singular value decomposition (TFM-SVD.’’ In this new method, we use statistical features of time series as well as frequency series (Fourier transform of the signal. This information is then extracted into a certain matrix with a fixed structure and the SVs of that matrix are sought. This transform can be used as a preprocessing stage in pattern clustering methods. The results in using it indicate that the performance of a combined system including this transform and classifiers is comparable with the performance of using other feature extraction methods such as wavelet transforms. To evaluate TFM-SVD, we applied this new method and artificial neural networks (ANNs for ballistocardiogram (BCG data clustering to look for probable heart disease of six test subjects. BCG from the test subjects was recorded using a chair-like ballistocardiograph, developed in our project. This kind of device combined with automated recording and analysis would be suitable for use in many places, such as home, office, and so forth. The results show that the method has high performance and it is almost insensitive to BCG waveform latency or nonlinear disturbance.

  13. Applying Novel Time-Frequency Moments Singular Value Decomposition Method and Artificial Neural Networks for Ballistocardiography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhbardeh, Alireza; Junnila, Sakari; Koivuluoma, Mikko; Koivistoinen, Teemu; Värri, Alpo

    2006-12-01

    As we know, singular value decomposition (SVD) is designed for computing singular values (SVs) of a matrix. Then, if it is used for finding SVs of an [InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]-by-1 or 1-by- [InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.] array with elements representing samples of a signal, it will return only one singular value that is not enough to express the whole signal. To overcome this problem, we designed a new kind of the feature extraction method which we call ''time-frequency moments singular value decomposition (TFM-SVD).'' In this new method, we use statistical features of time series as well as frequency series (Fourier transform of the signal). This information is then extracted into a certain matrix with a fixed structure and the SVs of that matrix are sought. This transform can be used as a preprocessing stage in pattern clustering methods. The results in using it indicate that the performance of a combined system including this transform and classifiers is comparable with the performance of using other feature extraction methods such as wavelet transforms. To evaluate TFM-SVD, we applied this new method and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for ballistocardiogram (BCG) data clustering to look for probable heart disease of six test subjects. BCG from the test subjects was recorded using a chair-like ballistocardiograph, developed in our project. This kind of device combined with automated recording and analysis would be suitable for use in many places, such as home, office, and so forth. The results show that the method has high performance and it is almost insensitive to BCG waveform latency or nonlinear disturbance.

  14. Determining the amount of anesthetic medicine to be applied by using Elman's recurrent neural networks via resilient back propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güntürkün, Rüştü

    2010-08-01

    In this study, Elman recurrent neural networks have been defined by using Resilient Back Propagation in order to determine the depth of anesthesia in the continuation stage of the anesthesia and to estimate the amount of medicine to be applied at that moment. From 30 patients, 57 distinct EEG recordings have been collected prior to during anaesthesia of different levels. The applied artificial neural network is composed of three layers, namely the input layer, the middle layer and the output layer. The nonlinear activation function sigmoid (sigmoid function) has been used in the hidden layer and the output layer. Prediction has been made by means of ANN. Training and testing the ANN have been used previous anaesthesia amount, total power/normal power and total power/previous. The system has been able to correctly purposeful responses in average accuracy of 95% of the cases. This method is also computationally fast and acceptable real-time clinical performance has been obtained.

  15. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.;

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corr......This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor......, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates...

  16. Applying Neural Network to Dynamic Modeling of Biosurfactant Production Using Soybean Oil Refinery Wastes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shokoufe Tayyebi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Biosurfactants are surface active compounds produced by various microorganisms. Production of biosurfactants via fermentation of immiscible wastes has the dual benefit of creating economic opportunities for manufacturers, while improving environmental health. A predictor system, recommended in such processes, must be scaled-up. Hence, four neural networks were developed for the dynamic modeling of the biosurfactant production kinetics, in presence of soybean oil or refinery wastes including acid oil, deodorizer distillate and soap stock. Each proposed feed forward neural network consists of three layers which are not fully connected. The input and output data for the training and validation of the neural network models were gathered from batch fermentation experiments. The proposed neural network models were evaluated by three statistical criteria (R2, RMSE and SE. The typical regression analysis showed high correlation coefficients greater than 0.971, demonstrating that the neural network is an excellent estimator for prediction of biosurfactant production kinetic data in a two phase liquid-liquid batch fermentation system. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicates that residual oil has the significant effect (i.e. 49% on the biosurfactant in the process.

  17. A Modular Neural Network Scheme Applied to Fault Diagnosis in Electric Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustín Flores

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This work proposes a new method for fault diagnosis in electric power systems based on neural modules. With this method the diagnosis is performed by assigning a neural module for each type of component comprising the electric power system, whether it is a transmission line, bus or transformer. The neural modules for buses and transformers comprise two diagnostic levels which take into consideration the logic states of switches and relays, both internal and back-up, with the exception of the neural module for transmission lines which also has a third diagnostic level which takes into account the oscillograms of fault voltages and currents as well as the frequency spectrums of these oscillograms, in order to verify if the transmission line had in fact been subjected to a fault. One important advantage of the diagnostic system proposed is that its implementation does not require the use of a network configurator for the system; it does not depend on the size of the power network nor does it require retraining of the neural modules if the power network increases in size, making its application possible to only one component, a specific area, or the whole context of the power system.

  18. A modular neural network scheme applied to fault diagnosis in electric power systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Agustín; Quiles, Eduardo; García, Emilio; Morant, Francisco; Correcher, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    This work proposes a new method for fault diagnosis in electric power systems based on neural modules. With this method the diagnosis is performed by assigning a neural module for each type of component comprising the electric power system, whether it is a transmission line, bus or transformer. The neural modules for buses and transformers comprise two diagnostic levels which take into consideration the logic states of switches and relays, both internal and back-up, with the exception of the neural module for transmission lines which also has a third diagnostic level which takes into account the oscillograms of fault voltages and currents as well as the frequency spectrums of these oscillograms, in order to verify if the transmission line had in fact been subjected to a fault. One important advantage of the diagnostic system proposed is that its implementation does not require the use of a network configurator for the system; it does not depend on the size of the power network nor does it require retraining of the neural modules if the power network increases in size, making its application possible to only one component, a specific area, or the whole context of the power system.

  19. Neural-Dynamic-Method-Based Dual-Arm CMG Scheme With Time-Varying Constraints Applied to Humanoid Robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhijun; Li, Zhijun; Zhang, Yunong; Luo, Yamei; Li, Yuanqing

    2015-12-01

    We propose a dual-arm cyclic-motion-generation (DACMG) scheme by a neural-dynamic method, which can remedy the joint-angle-drift phenomenon of a humanoid robot. In particular, according to a neural-dynamic design method, first, a cyclic-motion performance index is exploited and applied. This cyclic-motion performance index is then integrated into a quadratic programming (QP)-type scheme with time-varying constraints, called the time-varying-constrained DACMG (TVC-DACMG) scheme. The scheme includes the kinematic motion equations of two arms and the time-varying joint limits. The scheme can not only generate the cyclic motion of two arms for a humanoid robot but also control the arms to move to the desired position. In addition, the scheme considers the physical limit avoidance. To solve the QP problem, a recurrent neural network is presented and used to obtain the optimal solutions. Computer simulations and physical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and the accuracy of such a TVC-DACMG scheme and the neural network solver.

  20. Psychometric Evaluation of the Overexcitability Questionnaire-Two Applying Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling (BSEM) and Multiple-Group BSEM-Based Alignment with Approximate Measurement Invariance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Bondt, Niki; Van Petegem, Peter

    2015-01-01

    The Overexcitability Questionnaire-Two (OEQ-II) measures the degree and nature of overexcitability, which assists in determining the developmental potential of an individual according to Dabrowski's Theory of Positive Disintegration. Previous validation studies using frequentist confirmatory factor analysis, which postulates exact parameter constraints, led to model rejection and a long series of model modifications. Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) allows the application of zero-mean, small-variance priors for cross-loadings, residual covariances, and differences in measurement parameters across groups, better reflecting substantive theory and leading to better model fit and less overestimation of factor correlations. Our BSEM analysis with a sample of 516 students in higher education yields positive results regarding the factorial validity of the OEQ-II. Likewise, applying BSEM-based alignment with approximate measurement invariance, the absence of non-invariant factor loadings and intercepts across gender is supportive of the psychometric quality of the OEQ-II. Compared to males, females scored significantly higher on emotional and sensual overexcitability, and significantly lower on psychomotor overexcitability.

  1. Multivariate Cross-Classification: Applying machine learning techniques to characterize abstraction in neural representations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas eKaplan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Here we highlight an emerging trend in the use of machine learning classifiers to test for abstraction across patterns of neural activity. When a classifier algorithm is trained on data from one cognitive context, and tested on data from another, conclusions can be drawn about the role of a given brain region in representing information that abstracts across those cognitive contexts. We call this kind of analysis Multivariate Cross-Classification (MVCC, and review several domains where it has recently made an impact. MVCC has been important in establishing correspondences among neural patterns across cognitive domains, including motor-perception matching and cross-sensory matching. It has been used to test for similarity between neural patterns evoked by perception and those generated from memory. Other work has used MVCC to investigate the similarity of representations for semantic categories across different kinds of stimulus presentation, and in the presence of different cognitive demands. We use these examples to demonstrate the power of MVCC as a tool for investigating neural abstraction and discuss some important methodological issues related to its application.

  2. RBF-Type Artificial Neural Network Model Applied in Alloy Design of Steels

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YOU Wei; LIU Ya-xiu; BAI Bing-zhe; FANG Hong-sheng

    2008-01-01

    RBF model, a new type of artificial neural network model was developed to design the content of carbon in low-alloy engineering steels. The errors of the ANN model are. MSE 0. 052 1, MSRE 17. 85%, and VOF 1. 932 9. The results obtained are satisfactory. The method is a powerful aid for designing new steels.

  3. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    Object oriented Bayesian networks have proven themselves useful in recent years. The idea of applying an object oriented approach to Bayesian networks has extended their scope to larger domains that can be divided into autonomous but interrelated entities. Object oriented Bayesian networks have b...

  4. Bayesian least squares deconvolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asensio Ramos, A.; Petit, P.

    2015-11-01

    Aims: We develop a fully Bayesian least squares deconvolution (LSD) that can be applied to the reliable detection of magnetic signals in noise-limited stellar spectropolarimetric observations using multiline techniques. Methods: We consider LSD under the Bayesian framework and we introduce a flexible Gaussian process (GP) prior for the LSD profile. This prior allows the result to automatically adapt to the presence of signal. We exploit several linear algebra identities to accelerate the calculations. The final algorithm can deal with thousands of spectral lines in a few seconds. Results: We demonstrate the reliability of the method with synthetic experiments and we apply it to real spectropolarimetric observations of magnetic stars. We are able to recover the magnetic signals using a small number of spectral lines, together with the uncertainty at each velocity bin. This allows the user to consider if the detected signal is reliable. The code to compute the Bayesian LSD profile is freely available.

  5. Bayesian least squares deconvolution

    CERN Document Server

    Ramos, A Asensio

    2015-01-01

    Aims. To develop a fully Bayesian least squares deconvolution (LSD) that can be applied to the reliable detection of magnetic signals in noise-limited stellar spectropolarimetric observations using multiline techniques. Methods. We consider LSD under the Bayesian framework and we introduce a flexible Gaussian Process (GP) prior for the LSD profile. This prior allows the result to automatically adapt to the presence of signal. We exploit several linear algebra identities to accelerate the calculations. The final algorithm can deal with thousands of spectral lines in a few seconds. Results. We demonstrate the reliability of the method with synthetic experiments and we apply it to real spectropolarimetric observations of magnetic stars. We are able to recover the magnetic signals using a small number of spectral lines, together with the uncertainty at each velocity bin. This allows the user to consider if the detected signal is reliable. The code to compute the Bayesian LSD profile is freely available.

  6. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  7. Bayesian Missile System Reliability from Point Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-28

    OCT 2014 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Bayesian Missile System Reliability from Point Estimates 5a. CONTRACT...Principle (MEP) to convert point estimates to probability distributions to be used as priors for Bayesian reliability analysis of missile data, and...illustrate this approach by applying the priors to a Bayesian reliability model of a missile system. 15. SUBJECT TERMS priors, Bayesian , missile

  8. Fuzzy Optimization of an Elevator Mechanism Applying the Genetic Algorithm and Neural Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Considering the indefinite character of the value of design parameters and being satisfied with load-bearing capacity and stiffness, the fuzzy optimization mathematical model is set up to minimize the volume of tooth corona of a worm gear in an elevator mechanism. The method of second-class comprehensive evaluation was used based on the optimal level cut set, thus the optimal level value of every fuzzy constraint can be attained; the fuzzy optimization is transformed into the usual optimization.The Fast Back Propagation of the neural networks algorithm are adopted to train feed-forward networks so as to fit a relative coefficient. Then the fitness function with penalty terms is built by a penalty strategy, a neural networks program is recalled, and solver functions of the Genetic Algorithm Toolbox of Matlab software are adopted to solve the optimization model.

  9. Upon the opportunity to apply ART2 Neural Network for clusterization of biodiesel fuels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petkov T.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A chemometric approach using artificial neural network for clusterization of biodiesels was developed. It is based on artificial ART2 neural network. Gas chromatography (GC and Gas Chromatography - mass spectrometry (GC-MS were used for quantitative and qualitative analysis of biodiesels, produced from different feedstocks, and FAME (fatty acid methyl esters profiles were determined. Totally 96 analytical results for 7 different classes of biofuel plants: sunflower, rapeseed, corn, soybean, palm, peanut, “unknown” were used as objects. The analysis of biodiesels showed the content of five major FAME (C16:0, C18:0, C18:1, C18:2, C18:3 and those components were used like inputs in the model. After training with 6 samples, for which the origin was known, ANN was verified and tested with ninety “unknown” samples. The present research demonstrated the successful application of neural network for recognition of biodiesels according to their feedstock which give information upon their properties and handling.

  10. Upon the opportunity to apply ART2 Neural Network for clusterization of biodiesel fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkov, T.; Mustafa, Z.; Sotirov, S.; Milina, R.; Moskovkina, M.

    2016-03-01

    A chemometric approach using artificial neural network for clusterization of biodiesels was developed. It is based on artificial ART2 neural network. Gas chromatography (GC) and Gas Chromatography - mass spectrometry (GC-MS) were used for quantitative and qualitative analysis of biodiesels, produced from different feedstocks, and FAME (fatty acid methyl esters) profiles were determined. Totally 96 analytical results for 7 different classes of biofuel plants: sunflower, rapeseed, corn, soybean, palm, peanut, "unknown" were used as objects. The analysis of biodiesels showed the content of five major FAME (C16:0, C18:0, C18:1, C18:2, C18:3) and those components were used like inputs in the model. After training with 6 samples, for which the origin was known, ANN was verified and tested with ninety "unknown" samples. The present research demonstrated the successful application of neural network for recognition of biodiesels according to their feedstock which give information upon their properties and handling.

  11. Bayesian statistics

    OpenAIRE

    新家, 健精

    2013-01-01

    © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. All rights reserved. Article Outline: Glossary Definition of the Subject and Introduction The Bayesian Statistical Paradigm Three Examples Comparison with the Frequentist Statistical Paradigm Future Directions Bibliography

  12. The Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on Bayesian Neural Network%基于贝叶斯神经网络短期负荷预测模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    史会峰; 牛东晓; 卢艳霞

    2012-01-01

    本文提出了基于贝叶斯神经网络(BNN)短期负荷预测模型。根据气象影响因素和电力负荷的样本数据,针对权向量参数的先验分布分别为正态分布和柯西分布两种情况,应用混合蒙特卡洛(HMC)算法学习了BNN的权向量参数。由HMC算法和Laplace算法学习的贝叶斯神经网络以及BP算法学习的传统神经网络分别对4月(春)、8月(夏)、10月(秋)和1月(冬)每月25天的每个整点时刻的负荷进行了预测。这些神经网络的输入层有11个节点,它们分别与每个整点时刻和的气象因素、上一个整点时刻的气象因素和时间变量相对应,输出层只有一个节点,它与负荷变量对应。试验结果表明HMC算法学习的BNN的预测结果的百分比平均绝对误差(MAPE)和平方根平均误差(RSME)取值远远小于由Laplace算法学习的BNN和BP算法学习的人工神经网络的MAPE和RMSE。而且,HMC算法学习的BNN在测试集和训练集上的预测误差MAPE和RMSE的相差很小。实验结果充分说明HMC算法学习的BNN具有较高的预测精度和较强的泛化能力。%A short term load forecasting model based on Bayesian neural network learned by the Hybrid Monte Carlo(HMC) algorithm is presented in this paper.The weight vector parameter of the Bayesian neural network is considered as multi-dimensional random variables.Using the weather factors and load recorders in training set,HMC algorithm is used to learn the weight vector parameter with respect to normal prior distribution and Cauchy prior distribution respectively.Two Bayesian neural networks learned by Laplace algorithm and HMC algorithm and the artificial neural network learned by the BP algorithm are used to forecast the hourly load of 25 days of April(spring),August(summer),October(autumn) and January(winter) respectively.There are eleven nodes in input layer,ten nodes representing the ten weather factor

  13. Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.;

    2015-01-01

    A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimental...

  14. Mindfulness training applied to addiction therapy: insights into the neural mechanisms of positive behavioral change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garl

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Eric L Garland,1,2 Matthew O Howard,3 Sarah E Priddy,1 Patrick A McConnell,4 Michael R Riquino,1 Brett Froeliger4 1College of Social Work, 2Hunstsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; 3School of Social Work, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; 4Department of Neuroscience, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA Abstract: Dual-process models from neuroscience suggest that addiction is driven by dysregulated interactions between bottom-up neural processes underpinning reward learning and top-down neural functions subserving executive function. Over time, drug use causes atrophy in prefrontally mediated cognitive control networks and hijacks striatal circuits devoted to processing natural rewards in service of compulsive seeking of drug-related reward. In essence, mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs can be conceptualized as mental training programs for exercising, strengthening, and remediating these functional brain networks. This review describes how MBIs may remediate addiction by regulating frontostriatal circuits, thereby restoring an adaptive balance between these top-down and bottom-up processes. Empirical evidence is presented suggesting that MBIs facilitate cognitive control over drug-related automaticity, attentional bias, and drug cue reactivity, while enhancing responsiveness to natural rewards. Findings from the literature are incorporated into an integrative account of the neural mechanisms of mindfulness-based therapies for effecting positive behavior change in the context of addiction recovery. Implications of our theoretical framework are presented with respect to how these insights can inform the addiction therapy process. Keywords: mindfulness, frontostriatal, savoring, cue reactivity, hedonic dysregulation, reward, addiction

  15. Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Ntzoufras, Ioannis

    2009-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

  16. Applying Hopfield neural network to QoS routing in communication network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Li; SHEN Jin-yuan; CHANG Sheng-jiang; ZHANG Yan-xin

    2005-01-01

    The main goal of routing solutions is to satisfy the requirements of the Quality of Service (QoS) for every admitted connection as well as to achieve a global efficiency in resource utilization.In this paper proposes a solution based on Hopfield neural network (HNN) to deal with one of representative routing problems in uni-cast routing,i.e.the multi-constrained(MC) routing problem.Computer simulation shows that we can obtain the optimal path very rapidly with our new Lyapunov energy functions.

  17. Imaging regenerating bone tissue based on neural networks applied to micro-diffraction measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campi, G.; Pezzotti, G. [Institute of Crystallography, CNR, via Salaria Km 29.300, I-00015, Monterotondo Roma (Italy); Fratini, M. [Centro Fermi -Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche ' Enrico Fermi' , Roma (Italy); Ricci, A. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Notkestraße 85, D-22607 Hamburg (Germany); Burghammer, M. [European Synchrotron Radiation Facility, B. P. 220, F-38043 Grenoble Cedex (France); Cancedda, R.; Mastrogiacomo, M. [Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, and Dipartimento di Medicina Sperimentale dell' Università di Genova and AUO San Martino Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Largo R. Benzi 10, 16132, Genova (Italy); Bukreeva, I.; Cedola, A. [Institute for Chemical and Physical Process, CNR, c/o Physics Dep. at Sapienza University, P-le A. Moro 5, 00185, Roma (Italy)

    2013-12-16

    We monitored bone regeneration in a tissue engineering approach. To visualize and understand the structural evolution, the samples have been measured by X-ray micro-diffraction. We find that bone tissue regeneration proceeds through a multi-step mechanism, each step providing a specific diffraction signal. The large amount of data have been classified according to their structure and associated to the process they came from combining Neural Networks algorithms with least square pattern analysis. In this way, we obtain spatial maps of the different components of the tissues visualizing the complex kinetic at the base of the bone regeneration.

  18. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosper Harrison B.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

  19. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2017-03-01

    A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

  20. Bayesian Face Sketch Synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Nannan; Gao, Xinbo; Sun, Leiyu; Li, Jie

    2017-03-01

    Exemplar-based face sketch synthesis has been widely applied to both digital entertainment and law enforcement. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework for face sketch synthesis, which provides a systematic interpretation for understanding the common properties and intrinsic difference in different methods from the perspective of probabilistic graphical models. The proposed Bayesian framework consists of two parts: the neighbor selection model and the weight computation model. Within the proposed framework, we further propose a Bayesian face sketch synthesis method. The essential rationale behind the proposed Bayesian method is that we take the spatial neighboring constraint between adjacent image patches into consideration for both aforementioned models, while the state-of-the-art methods neglect the constraint either in the neighbor selection model or in the weight computation model. Extensive experiments on the Chinese University of Hong Kong face sketch database demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian method could achieve superior performance compared with the state-of-the-art methods in terms of both subjective perceptions and objective evaluations.

  1. Predicting the Severity of Breast Masses with Ensemble of Bayesian Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alaa M. Elsayad

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: This study evaluated two different Bayesian classifiers; tree augmented Naive Bayes and Markov blanket estimation networks in order to build an ensemble model for prediction the severity of breast masses. The objective of the proposed algorithm was to help physicians in their decisions to perform a breast biopsy on a suspicious lesion seen in a mammogram image or to perform a short term follow-up examination instead. While, mammography is the most effective and available tool for breast cancer screening, mammograms do not detect all breast cancers. Also, a small portion of mammograms show that a cancer could probably be present when it is not (called a false-positive result. Approach: Apply ensemble of Bayesian classifiers to predict the severity of breast masses. Bayesian classifiers had been selected as they were able to produce probability estimates rather than predictions. These estimated allow predictions to be ranked and their expected costs to be minimized. The proposed ensemble used the confidence scores where the highest confidence wins to combine the predictions of individual classifiers. Results: The prediction accuracies of Bayesian ensemble was benchmarked against the well-known multilayer perceptron neural network and the ensemble had achieved a remarkable performance with 91.83% accuracy on training subset and 90.63% of test one and outperformed the neural network model. Conclusion: Experimental results showed that the Bayesian classifiers are competitive techniques in the problem of prediction the severity of breast masses.

  2. The spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility applying artificial neural network and logistic regression models: A case study of Inje, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saro, Lee; Woo, Jeon Seong; Kwan-Young, Oh; Moung-Jin, Lee

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs) followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering forest, geophysical, soil and topographic data, was built on the study area using the Geographical Information System (GIS). These factors were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression models to generate a landslide susceptibility map. The study validates the landslide susceptibility map by comparing them with landslide occurrence areas. The locations of landslide occurrence were divided randomly into a training set (50%) and a test set (50%). A training set analyse the landslide susceptibility map using the artificial network along with logistic regression models, and a test set was retained to validate the prediction map. The validation results revealed that the artificial neural network model (with an accuracy of 80.10%) was better at predicting landslides than the logistic regression model (with an accuracy of 77.05%). Of the weights used in the artificial neural network model, `slope' yielded the highest weight value (1.330), and `aspect' yielded the lowest value (1.000). This research applied two statistical analysis methods in a GIS and compared their results. Based on the findings, we were able to derive a more effective method for analyzing landslide susceptibility.

  3. Applying the Fuzzy ARTMAP neural network for mapping erosive status in the Ria Formosa catchment (Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granja Martins, F. M.; Neto Paixão, H. M.; Jordán, A.; Zavala, L. M.; Bellinfante, N.

    2012-04-01

    The study of the soil erosion risk is the starting point for development and sustainable land management. The intensity of soil erosion risk is conditioned by soil erodibility, slope, land use and vegetation cover. The objective of this work is mapping the erosive status of the Ria Formosa catchment using "Fuzzy ARTMAP" neural network. The study area is the catchment of Ria Formosa, which includes a shallow coastal lagoon with an area of about 16000 ha located in Algarve (southern Portugal). It is protected by EU and national laws, and is classified as a wetland of international importance under the RAMSAR convention. Previously to the construction of the artificial neuronal network model, it was necessary to establish the training areas (proposed by the Priority Action Plan/Regional Activity Centre (PAP/RAC, 1997). The differences between both methods were about 1% of the total area. Both maps were validated with field observations and analysis of aerial photographs.

  4. Bayesian Approach for Inconsistent Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, M; Beer, M; Kreinovich, V

    2013-10-01

    In engineering situations, we usually have a large amount of prior knowledge that needs to be taken into account when processing data. Traditionally, the Bayesian approach is used to process data in the presence of prior knowledge. Sometimes, when we apply the traditional Bayesian techniques to engineering data, we get inconsistencies between the data and prior knowledge. These inconsistencies are usually caused by the fact that in the traditional approach, we assume that we know the exact sample values, that the prior distribution is exactly known, etc. In reality, the data is imprecise due to measurement errors, the prior knowledge is only approximately known, etc. So, a natural way to deal with the seemingly inconsistent information is to take this imprecision into account in the Bayesian approach - e.g., by using fuzzy techniques. In this paper, we describe several possible scenarios for fuzzifying the Bayesian approach. Particular attention is paid to the interaction between the estimated imprecise parameters. In this paper, to implement the corresponding fuzzy versions of the Bayesian formulas, we use straightforward computations of the related expression - which makes our computations reasonably time-consuming. Computations in the traditional (non-fuzzy) Bayesian approach are much faster - because they use algorithmically efficient reformulations of the Bayesian formulas. We expect that similar reformulations of the fuzzy Bayesian formulas will also drastically decrease the computation time and thus, enhance the practical use of the proposed methods.

  5. Bayesian Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Bernardo, Jose M

    2000-01-01

    This highly acclaimed text, now available in paperback, provides a thorough account of key concepts and theoretical results, with particular emphasis on viewing statistical inference as a special case of decision theory. Information-theoretic concepts play a central role in the development of the theory, which provides, in particular, a detailed discussion of the problem of specification of so-called prior ignorance . The work is written from the authors s committed Bayesian perspective, but an overview of non-Bayesian theories is also provided, and each chapter contains a wide-ranging critica

  6. Deep Learning with Convolutional Neural Networks Applied to Electromyography Data: A Resource for the Classification of Movements for Prosthetic Hands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atzori, Manfredo; Cognolato, Matteo; Müller, Henning

    2016-01-01

    Natural control methods based on surface electromyography (sEMG) and pattern recognition are promising for hand prosthetics. However, the control robustness offered by scientific research is still not sufficient for many real life applications, and commercial prostheses are capable of offering natural control for only a few movements. In recent years deep learning revolutionized several fields of machine learning, including computer vision and speech recognition. Our objective is to test its methods for natural control of robotic hands via sEMG using a large number of intact subjects and amputees. We tested convolutional networks for the classification of an average of 50 hand movements in 67 intact subjects and 11 transradial amputees. The simple architecture of the neural network allowed to make several tests in order to evaluate the effect of pre-processing, layer architecture, data augmentation and optimization. The classification results are compared with a set of classical classification methods applied on the same datasets. The classification accuracy obtained with convolutional neural networks using the proposed architecture is higher than the average results obtained with the classical classification methods, but lower than the results obtained with the best reference methods in our tests. The results show that convolutional neural networks with a very simple architecture can produce accurate results comparable to the average classical classification methods. They show that several factors (including pre-processing, the architecture of the net and the optimization parameters) can be fundamental for the analysis of sEMG data. Larger networks can achieve higher accuracy on computer vision and object recognition tasks. This fact suggests that it may be interesting to evaluate if larger networks can increase sEMG classification accuracy too.

  7. Deep Learning with Convolutional Neural Networks Applied to Electromyography Data: A Resource for the Classification of Movements for Prosthetic Hands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atzori, Manfredo; Cognolato, Matteo; Müller, Henning

    2016-01-01

    Natural control methods based on surface electromyography (sEMG) and pattern recognition are promising for hand prosthetics. However, the control robustness offered by scientific research is still not sufficient for many real life applications, and commercial prostheses are capable of offering natural control for only a few movements. In recent years deep learning revolutionized several fields of machine learning, including computer vision and speech recognition. Our objective is to test its methods for natural control of robotic hands via sEMG using a large number of intact subjects and amputees. We tested convolutional networks for the classification of an average of 50 hand movements in 67 intact subjects and 11 transradial amputees. The simple architecture of the neural network allowed to make several tests in order to evaluate the effect of pre-processing, layer architecture, data augmentation and optimization. The classification results are compared with a set of classical classification methods applied on the same datasets. The classification accuracy obtained with convolutional neural networks using the proposed architecture is higher than the average results obtained with the classical classification methods, but lower than the results obtained with the best reference methods in our tests. The results show that convolutional neural networks with a very simple architecture can produce accurate results comparable to the average classical classification methods. They show that several factors (including pre-processing, the architecture of the net and the optimization parameters) can be fundamental for the analysis of sEMG data. Larger networks can achieve higher accuracy on computer vision and object recognition tasks. This fact suggests that it may be interesting to evaluate if larger networks can increase sEMG classification accuracy too. PMID:27656140

  8. Artificial neural networks applied for soil class prediction in mountainous landscape of the Serra do Mar¹

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Braz Calderano Filho

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Soil information is needed for managing the agricultural environment. The aim of this study was to apply artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of soil classes using orbital remote sensing products, terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model and local geology information as data sources. This approach to digital soil mapping was evaluated in an area with a high degree of lithologic diversity in the Serra do Mar. The neural network simulator used in this study was JavaNNS and the backpropagation learning algorithm. For soil class prediction, different combinations of the selected discriminant variables were tested: elevation, declivity, aspect, curvature, curvature plan, curvature profile, topographic index, solar radiation, LS topographic factor, local geology information, and clay mineral indices, iron oxides and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI derived from an image of a Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+ sensor. With the tested sets, best results were obtained when all discriminant variables were associated with geological information (overall accuracy 93.2 - 95.6 %, Kappa index 0.924 - 0.951, for set 13. Excluding the variable profile curvature (set 12, overall accuracy ranged from 93.9 to 95.4 % and the Kappa index from 0.932 to 0.948. The maps based on the neural network classifier were consistent and similar to conventional soil maps drawn for the study area, although with more spatial details. The results show the potential of ANNs for soil class prediction in mountainous areas with lithological diversity.

  9. Connectivity strategies for higher-order neural networks applied to pattern recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirkovska, Lilly; Reid, Max B.

    1990-01-01

    Different strategies for non-fully connected HONNs (higher-order neural networks) are discussed, showing that by using such strategies an input field of 128 x 128 pixels can be attained while still achieving in-plane rotation and translation-invariant recognition. These techniques allow HONNs to be used with the larger input scenes required for practical pattern-recognition applications. The number of interconnections that must be stored has been reduced by a factor of approximately 200,000 in a T/C case and about 2000 in a Space Shuttle/F-18 case by using regional connectivity. Third-order networks have been simulated using several connection strategies. The method found to work best is regional connectivity. The main advantages of this strategy are the following: (1) it considers features of various scales within the image and thus gets a better sample of what the image looks like; (2) it is invariant to shape-preserving geometric transformations, such as translation and rotation; (3) the connections are predetermined so that no extra computations are necessary during run time; and (4) it does not require any extra storage for recording which connections were formed.

  10. Higher-Order Neural Networks Applied to 2D and 3D Object Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirkovska, Lilly; Reid, Max B.

    1994-01-01

    A Higher-Order Neural Network (HONN) can be designed to be invariant to geometric transformations such as scale, translation, and in-plane rotation. Invariances are built directly into the architecture of a HONN and do not need to be learned. Thus, for 2D object recognition, the network needs to be trained on just one view of each object class, not numerous scaled, translated, and rotated views. Because the 2D object recognition task is a component of the 3D object recognition task, built-in 2D invariance also decreases the size of the training set required for 3D object recognition. We present results for 2D object recognition both in simulation and within a robotic vision experiment and for 3D object recognition in simulation. We also compare our method to other approaches and show that HONNs have distinct advantages for position, scale, and rotation-invariant object recognition. The major drawback of HONNs is that the size of the input field is limited due to the memory required for the large number of interconnections in a fully connected network. We present partial connectivity strategies and a coarse-coding technique for overcoming this limitation and increasing the input field to that required by practical object recognition problems.

  11. Artificial Neural Network applied as a methodology of mosquito species identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Camila; Ferraudo, Antonio Sergio; Suesdek, Lincoln

    2015-12-01

    There are about 200 species of mosquitoes (Culicidae) known to be vectors of pathogens that cause diseases in humans. Correct identification of mosquito species is an essential step in the development of effective control strategies for these diseases; recognizing the vectors of pathogens is integral to understanding transmission. Unfortunately, taxonomic identification of mosquitoes is a laborious task, which requires trained experts, and it is jeopardized by the high variability of morphological and molecular characters found within the Culicidae family. In this context, the development of an automatized species identification method would be a valuable and more accessible resource to non-taxonomist and health professionals. In this work, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique was proposed for the identification and classification of 17 species of the genera Anopheles, Aedes, and Culex, based on wing shape characters. We tested the hypothesis that classification using ANN is better than traditional classification by discriminant analysis (DA). Thirty-two wing shape principal components were used as input to a Multilayer Perceptron Classification ANN. The obtained ANN correctly identified species with accuracy rates ranging from 85.70% to 100%, and classified species more efficiently than did the traditional method of multivariate discriminant analysis. The results highlight the power of ANNs to diagnose mosquito species and to partly automatize taxonomic identification. These findings also support the hypothesis that wing venation patterns are species-specific, and thus should be included in taxonomic keys.

  12. Neutron spectrometry and dosimetry by means of Bonner spheres system and artificial neural networks applying robust design of artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez B, M.R.; Ortiz R, J.M.; Vega C, H.R. [UAZ, Av. Ramon Lopez Velarde No. 801, 98000 Zacatecas (Mexico)

    2006-07-01

    An Artificial Neural Network has been designed, trained and tested to unfold neutron spectra and simultaneously to calculate equivalent doses. A set of 187 neutron spectra compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency and 13 equivalent doses were used in the artificial neural network designed, trained and tested. In order to design the neural network was used the robust design of artificial neural networks methodology, which assures that the quality of the neural networks takes into account from the design stage. Unless previous works, here, for first time a group of neural networks were designed and trained to unfold 187 neutron spectra and at the same time to calculate 13 equivalent doses, starting from the count rates coming from the Bonner spheres system by using a systematic and experimental strategy. (Author)

  13. Bayesian SPLDA

    OpenAIRE

    Villalba, Jesús

    2015-01-01

    In this document we are going to derive the equations needed to implement a Variational Bayes estimation of the parameters of the simplified probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (SPLDA) model. This can be used to adapt SPLDA from one database to another with few development data or to implement the fully Bayesian recipe. Our approach is similar to Bishop's VB PPCA.

  14. Applying Neural Networks to Hyperspectral and Multispectral Field Data for Discrimination of Cruciferous Weeds in Winter Crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Ana-Isabel; Jurado-Expósito, Montserrat; Gómez-Casero, María-Teresa; López-Granados, Francisca

    2012-01-01

    In the context of detection of weeds in crops for site-specific weed control, on-ground spectral reflectance measurements are the first step to determine the potential of remote spectral data to classify weeds and crops. Field studies were conducted for four years at different locations in Spain. We aimed to distinguish cruciferous weeds in wheat and broad bean crops, using hyperspectral and multispectral readings in the visible and near-infrared spectrum. To identify differences in reflectance between cruciferous weeds, we applied three classification methods: stepwise discriminant (STEPDISC) analysis and two neural networks, specifically, multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF). Hyperspectral and multispectral signatures of cruciferous weeds, and wheat and broad bean crops can be classified using STEPDISC analysis, and MLP and RBF neural networks with different success, being the MLP model the most accurate with 100%, or higher than 98.1%, of classification performance for all the years. Classification accuracy from hyperspectral signatures was similar to that from multispectral and spectral indices, suggesting that little advantage would be obtained by using more expensive airborne hyperspectral imagery. Therefore, for next investigations, we recommend using multispectral remote imagery to explore whether they can potentially discriminate these weeds and crops. PMID:22629171

  15. Applying Neural Networks to Hyperspectral and Multispectral Field Data for Discrimination of Cruciferous Weeds in Winter Crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Isabel de Castro

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of detection of weeds in crops for site-specific weed control, on-ground spectral reflectance measurements are the first step to determine the potential of remote spectral data to classify weeds and crops. Field studies were conducted for four years at different locations in Spain. We aimed to distinguish cruciferous weeds in wheat and broad bean crops, using hyperspectral and multispectral readings in the visible and near-infrared spectrum. To identify differences in reflectance between cruciferous weeds, we applied three classification methods: stepwise discriminant (STEPDISC analysis and two neural networks, specifically, multilayer perceptron (MLP and radial basis function (RBF. Hyperspectral and multispectral signatures of cruciferous weeds, and wheat and broad bean crops can be classified using STEPDISC analysis, and MLP and RBF neural networks with different success, being the MLP model the most accurate with 100%, or higher than 98.1%, of classification performance for all the years. Classification accuracy from hyperspectral signatures was similar to that from multispectral and spectral indices, suggesting that little advantage would be obtained by using more expensive airborne hyperspectral imagery. Therefore, for next investigations, we recommend using multispectral remote imagery to explore whether they can potentially discriminate these weeds and crops.

  16. Applying neural networks to hyperspectral and multispectral field data for discrimination of cruciferous weeds in winter crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Ana-Isabel; Jurado-Expósito, Montserrat; Gómez-Casero, María-Teresa; López-Granados, Francisca

    2012-01-01

    In the context of detection of weeds in crops for site-specific weed control, on-ground spectral reflectance measurements are the first step to determine the potential of remote spectral data to classify weeds and crops. Field studies were conducted for four years at different locations in Spain. We aimed to distinguish cruciferous weeds in wheat and broad bean crops, using hyperspectral and multispectral readings in the visible and near-infrared spectrum. To identify differences in reflectance between cruciferous weeds, we applied three classification methods: stepwise discriminant (STEPDISC) analysis and two neural networks, specifically, multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF). Hyperspectral and multispectral signatures of cruciferous weeds, and wheat and broad bean crops can be classified using STEPDISC analysis, and MLP and RBF neural networks with different success, being the MLP model the most accurate with 100%, or higher than 98.1%, of classification performance for all the years. Classification accuracy from hyperspectral signatures was similar to that from multispectral and spectral indices, suggesting that little advantage would be obtained by using more expensive airborne hyperspectral imagery. Therefore, for next investigations, we recommend using multispectral remote imagery to explore whether they can potentially discriminate these weeds and crops.

  17. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

  18. Bayesian signaling

    OpenAIRE

    Hedlund, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces private sender information into a sender-receiver game of Bayesian persuasion with monotonic sender preferences. I derive properties of increasing differences related to the precision of signals and use these to fully characterize the set of equilibria robust to the intuitive criterion. In particular, all such equilibria are either separating, i.e., the sender's choice of signal reveals his private information to the receiver, or fully disclosing, i.e., the outcome of th...

  19. Bayesian Monitoring.

    OpenAIRE

    Kirstein, Roland

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a modification of the inspection game: The ?Bayesian Monitoring? model rests on the assumption that judges are interested in enforcing compliant behavior and making correct decisions. They may base their judgements on an informative but imperfect signal which can be generated costlessly. In the original inspection game, monitoring is costly and generates a perfectly informative signal. While the inspection game has only one mixed strategy equilibrium, three Perfect Bayesia...

  20. Visual masking with frontally applied pre-stimulus TMS and its subject-specific neural correlates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutiku, Renate; Tulver, Kadi; Aru, Jaan; Bachmann, Talis

    2016-07-01

    The visibility of a visual target stimulus depends on the local state of the early visual cortex shortly before the stimulus itself is presented. This view is supported by the observation that occipitally applied pre-stimulus TMS can disrupt subsequent information processing leading to visual masking effects. According to another line of accumulating evidence, however, global pre-stimulus connectivity patterns could be as crucial as local cortical states. In line with the latter view we show that pre-stimulus masking occurs even if TMS is directed to the frontal cortex. Importantly, the individual extent of this effect is strongly correlated with the subject-specific peak latency of a late positive TMS-evoked potential. Our results thus suggest a third type of masking occurring neither through direct interaction with visual areas nor by a modal visual masking input. Our results also shed light on the inter-individual differences in TMS research in general.

  1. Bayesian grid matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2003-01-01

    A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which...... nodes and the arc prior models variations in row and column spacing across the grid. Grid matching is done by placing an initial rough grid over the image and applying an ensemble annealing scheme to maximize the posterior distribution of the grid. The method can be applied to noisy images with missing...

  2. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  3. Direct and inverse neural networks modelling applied to study the influence of the gas diffusion layer properties on PBI-based PEM fuel cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobato, Justo; Canizares, Pablo; Rodrigo, Manuel A.; Linares, Jose J. [Chemical Engineering Department, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Campus Universitario s/n, 13004 Ciudad Real (Spain); Piuleac, Ciprian-George; Curteanu, Silvia [Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Environmental Protection, Department of Chemical Engineering, ' ' Gh. Asachi' ' Technical University Iasi Bd. D. Mangeron, No. 71A, 700050 IASI (Romania)

    2010-08-15

    This article shows the application of a very useful mathematical tool, artificial neural networks, to predict the fuel cells results (the value of the tortuosity and the cell voltage, at a given current density, and therefore, the power) on the basis of several properties that define a Gas Diffusion Layer: Teflon content, air permeability, porosity, mean pore size, hydrophobia level. Four neural networks types (multilayer perceptron, generalized feedforward network, modular neural network, and Jordan-Elman neural network) have been applied, with a good fitting between the predicted and the experimental values in the polarization curves. A simple feedforward neural network with one hidden layer proved to be an accurate model with good generalization capability (error about 1% in the validation phase). A procedure based on inverse neural network modelling was able to determine, with small errors, the initial conditions leading to imposed values for characteristics of the fuel cell. In addition, the use of this tool has been proved to be very attractive in order to predict the cell performance, and more interestingly, the influence of the properties of the gas diffusion layer on the cell performance, allowing possible enhancements of this material by changing some of its properties. (author)

  4. Using Elman recurrent neural networks with conjugate gradient algorithm in determining the anesthetic the amount of anesthetic medicine to be applied.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güntürkün, Rüştü

    2010-08-01

    In this study, Elman recurrent neural networks have been defined by using conjugate gradient algorithm in order to determine the depth of anesthesia in the continuation stage of the anesthesia and to estimate the amount of medicine to be applied at that moment. The feed forward neural networks are also used for comparison. The conjugate gradient algorithm is compared with back propagation (BP) for training of the neural Networks. The applied artificial neural network is composed of three layers, namely the input layer, the hidden layer and the output layer. The nonlinear activation function sigmoid (sigmoid function) has been used in the hidden layer and the output layer. EEG data has been recorded with Nihon Kohden 9200 brand 22-channel EEG device. The international 8-channel bipolar 10-20 montage system (8 TB-b system) has been used in assembling the recording electrodes. EEG data have been recorded by being sampled once in every 2 milliseconds. The artificial neural network has been designed so as to have 60 neurons in the input layer, 30 neurons in the hidden layer and 1 neuron in the output layer. The values of the power spectral density (PSD) of 10-second EEG segments which correspond to the 1-50 Hz frequency range; the ratio of the total power of PSD values of the EEG segment at that moment in the same range to the total of PSD values of EEG segment taken prior to the anesthesia.

  5. A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

  6. Boltzmann learning of parameters in cellular neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai

    1992-01-01

    The use of Bayesian methods to design cellular neural networks for signal processing tasks and the Boltzmann machine learning rule for parameter estimation is discussed. The learning rule can be used for models with hidden units, or for completely unsupervised learning. The latter is exemplified...... by unsupervised adaptation of an image segmentation cellular network. The learning rule is applied to adaptive segmentation of satellite imagery...

  7. 12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

  8. The Bayesian Revolution Approaches Psychological Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Thomas R.

    2007-01-01

    This commentary reviews five articles that apply Bayesian ideas to psychological development, some with psychology experiments, some with computational modeling, and some with both experiments and modeling. The reviewed work extends the current Bayesian revolution into tasks often studied in children, such as causal learning and word learning, and…

  9. Applying Bayesian parameter estimation to relativistic heavy-ion collisions: simultaneous characterization of the initial state and quark-gluon plasma medium

    CERN Document Server

    Bernhard, Jonah E; Bass, Steffen A; Liu, Jia; Heinz, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    We quantitatively estimate properties of the quark-gluon plasma created in ultra-relativistic heavy-ion collisions utilizing Bayesian statistics and a multi-parameter model-to-data comparison. The study is performed using a recently developed parametric initial condition model, TRENTO, which interpolates among a general class of particle production schemes, and a modern hybrid model which couples viscous hydrodynamics to a hadronic cascade. We calibrate the model to multiplicity, transverse momentum, and flow data and report constraints on the parametrized initial conditions and the temperature-dependent transport coefficients of the quark-gluon plasma. We show that initial entropy deposition is consistent with a saturation-based picture, extract a relation between the minimum value and slope of the temperature-dependent specific shear viscosity, and find a clear signal for a nonzero bulk viscosity.

  10. Bayesian modeling of flexible cognitive control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiefeng; Heller, Katherine; Egner, Tobias

    2014-10-01

    "Cognitive control" describes endogenous guidance of behavior in situations where routine stimulus-response associations are suboptimal for achieving a desired goal. The computational and neural mechanisms underlying this capacity remain poorly understood. We examine recent advances stemming from the application of a Bayesian learner perspective that provides optimal prediction for control processes. In reviewing the application of Bayesian models to cognitive control, we note that an important limitation in current models is a lack of a plausible mechanism for the flexible adjustment of control over conflict levels changing at varying temporal scales. We then show that flexible cognitive control can be achieved by a Bayesian model with a volatility-driven learning mechanism that modulates dynamically the relative dependence on recent and remote experiences in its prediction of future control demand. We conclude that the emergent Bayesian perspective on computational mechanisms of cognitive control holds considerable promise, especially if future studies can identify neural substrates of the variables encoded by these models, and determine the nature (Bayesian or otherwise) of their neural implementation.

  11. Bayesian modeling of flexible cognitive control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiefeng; Heller, Katherine; Egner, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    “Cognitive control” describes endogenous guidance of behavior in situations where routine stimulus-response associations are suboptimal for achieving a desired goal. The computational and neural mechanisms underlying this capacity remain poorly understood. We examine recent advances stemming from the application of a Bayesian learner perspective that provides optimal prediction for control processes. In reviewing the application of Bayesian models to cognitive control, we note that an important limitation in current models is a lack of a plausible mechanism for the flexible adjustment of control over conflict levels changing at varying temporal scales. We then show that flexible cognitive control can be achieved by a Bayesian model with a volatility-driven learning mechanism that modulates dynamically the relative dependence on recent and remote experiences in its prediction of future control demand. We conclude that the emergent Bayesian perspective on computational mechanisms of cognitive control holds considerable promise, especially if future studies can identify neural substrates of the variables encoded by these models, and determine the nature (Bayesian or otherwise) of their neural implementation. PMID:24929218

  12. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  13. A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    2013-01-01

    representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...

  14. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, t

  15. Varying prior information in Bayesian inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Matthew; Curtis, Andrew

    2014-06-01

    Bayes' rule is used to combine likelihood and prior probability distributions. The former represents knowledge derived from new data, the latter represents pre-existing knowledge; the Bayesian combination is the so-called posterior distribution, representing the resultant new state of knowledge. While varying the likelihood due to differing data observations is common, there are also situations where the prior distribution must be changed or replaced repeatedly. For example, in mixture density neural network (MDN) inversion, using current methods the neural network employed for inversion needs to be retrained every time prior information changes. We develop a method of prior replacement to vary the prior without re-training the network. Thus the efficiency of MDN inversions can be increased, typically by orders of magnitude when applied to geophysical problems. We demonstrate this for the inversion of seismic attributes in a synthetic subsurface geological reservoir model. We also present results which suggest that prior replacement can be used to control the statistical properties (such as variance) of the final estimate of the posterior in more general (e.g., Monte Carlo based) inverse problem solutions.

  16. 金属疲劳裂纹扩展速率的贝叶斯正则化BP神经网络预测%Prediction of fatigue crack growth rate of metal based on Bayesian regularized BP neural network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗广恩; 崔维成

    2012-01-01

    Artificial neural network is an important method for predicting the fatigue crack growth rate. In this paper, the Bayesian regularized BP neural network is established to predict the fatigue crack growth rate of metal.The experimental data of each material at different stress ratio R are divided into two parts. One is used for training neural network, the other is used for testing the network. Experimental data of four different types of materials taken from literature were used in the analyses. The results show that the neural network has strong fitting and generalization capability. And the generalization capability of neural network is improved by reducing the training data near the threshold.So the neural network can be used for predicting the crack growth rate of different stress ratios R based on the existing data. Furthermore, it will provide a reliable and useful predictor for fatigue crack growth rate of different metals.%人工神经网络是进行预报裂纹扩展率的一个重要方法.文章针对不同金属的疲劳裂纹扩展速率分别建立贝叶斯正则化BP( Back Propagation)神经网络,将各材料在不同应力比R下的疲劳裂纹扩展速率试验数据分为两部分,一部分用来进行训练网络,另一部分用来测试训练好的网络,检验其泛化能力.将从文献中获取的4种不同金属材料的疲劳试验数据作为算例,来检验网络的性能.计算结果表明贝叶斯正则化BP神经网络不仅对训练样本有很好的拟合能力,而且对于未训练过的测试样本也有较好的预测能力,即有较强的泛化能力.同时,指出了建立网络时减少门槛值附近的试验样本点,可以提高网络的预测能力.研究结果表明,该方法可以方便地获得不同应力比R下的疲劳裂纹扩展速率,从而达到减少试验次数,充分利用已有数据的目的.并且可以进一步应用于其他金属的疲劳裂纹扩展速率的预报.

  17. Structure learning for Bayesian networks as models of biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larjo, Antti; Shmulevich, Ilya; Lähdesmäki, Harri

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models suitable for modeling several kinds of biological systems. In many cases, the structure of a Bayesian network represents causal molecular mechanisms or statistical associations of the underlying system. Bayesian networks have been applied, for example, for inferring the structure of many biological networks from experimental data. We present some recent progress in learning the structure of static and dynamic Bayesian networks from data.

  18. Elman神经网络在变形预报中的应用研究%Applied Research in the Deformation Monitoring Based on Elman Neural Network Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    白雪武; 梁东伟; 马友利

    2012-01-01

    As a rapid development of nonlinear science in dealing with some background unclear and extremely complex information, neural network will show its unique superiority. This article applies Elman neural network to deformation monitoring of landslide to set up the forecasting model and Matlab neural network toolbox of MATLAB program design is applied to concrete examples. Through the model of prediction accuracy, the Elman neural network model to landslide monitoring and forecasting of feasibility is verified.%神经网络作为一门快速发展起来的非线性科学,在处理一些背景不清楚而且极其复杂信息的时候,就会显示出其独特的优越性。本文通过Elman神经网络应用到滑坡变形监测中,建立预报模型,并以Matlab神经网络工具箱进行程序设计,最后运用到具体实例中,通过模型的预报精度,来验证Elman神经网络模型在滑坡监测预报中的可行性。

  19. Fuzzy Naive Bayesian for constructing regulated network with weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xi Y; Tian, Xue W; Lim, Joon S

    2015-01-01

    In the data mining field, classification is a very crucial technology, and the Bayesian classifier has been one of the hotspots in classification research area. However, assumptions of Naive Bayesian and Tree Augmented Naive Bayesian (TAN) are unfair to attribute relations. Therefore, this paper proposes a new algorithm named Fuzzy Naive Bayesian (FNB) using neural network with weighted membership function (NEWFM) to extract regulated relations and weights. Then, we can use regulated relations and weights to construct a regulated network. Finally, we will classify the heart and Haberman datasets by the FNB network to compare with experiments of Naive Bayesian and TAN. The experiment results show that the FNB has a higher classification rate than Naive Bayesian and TAN.

  20. Tactile length contraction as Bayesian inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Jonathan; Ngo, Vy; Goldreich, Daniel

    2016-08-01

    To perceive, the brain must interpret stimulus-evoked neural activity. This is challenging: The stochastic nature of the neural response renders its interpretation inherently uncertain. Perception would be optimized if the brain used Bayesian inference to interpret inputs in light of expectations derived from experience. Bayesian inference would improve perception on average but cause illusions when stimuli violate expectation. Intriguingly, tactile, auditory, and visual perception are all prone to length contraction illusions, characterized by the dramatic underestimation of the distance between punctate stimuli delivered in rapid succession; the origin of these illusions has been mysterious. We previously proposed that length contraction illusions occur because the brain interprets punctate stimulus sequences using Bayesian inference with a low-velocity expectation. A novel prediction of our Bayesian observer model is that length contraction should intensify if stimuli are made more difficult to localize. Here we report a tactile psychophysical study that tested this prediction. Twenty humans compared two distances on the forearm: a fixed reference distance defined by two taps with 1-s temporal separation and an adjustable comparison distance defined by two taps with temporal separation t ≤ 1 s. We observed significant length contraction: As t was decreased, participants perceived the two distances as equal only when the comparison distance was made progressively greater than the reference distance. Furthermore, the use of weaker taps significantly enhanced participants' length contraction. These findings confirm the model's predictions, supporting the view that the spatiotemporal percept is a best estimate resulting from a Bayesian inference process.

  1. Control of Complex Systems Using Bayesian Networks and Genetic Algorithm

    CERN Document Server

    Marwala, Tshilidzi

    2007-01-01

    A method based on Bayesian neural networks and genetic algorithm is proposed to control the fermentation process. The relationship between input and output variables is modelled using Bayesian neural network that is trained using hybrid Monte Carlo method. A feedback loop based on genetic algorithm is used to change input variables so that the output variables are as close to the desired target as possible without the loss of confidence level on the prediction that the neural network gives. The proposed procedure is found to reduce the distance between the desired target and measured outputs significantly.

  2. Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liangdong; Wang, Limin

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

  3. Bayesian data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gelman, Andrew; Stern, Hal S; Dunson, David B; Vehtari, Aki; Rubin, Donald B

    2013-01-01

    FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN INFERENCEProbability and InferenceSingle-Parameter Models Introduction to Multiparameter Models Asymptotics and Connections to Non-Bayesian ApproachesHierarchical ModelsFUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSISModel Checking Evaluating, Comparing, and Expanding ModelsModeling Accounting for Data Collection Decision AnalysisADVANCED COMPUTATION Introduction to Bayesian Computation Basics of Markov Chain Simulation Computationally Efficient Markov Chain Simulation Modal and Distributional ApproximationsREGRESSION MODELS Introduction to Regression Models Hierarchical Linear

  4. Using Consensus Bayesian Network to Model the Reactive Oxygen Species Regulatory Pathway

    OpenAIRE

    Liangdong Hu; Limin Wang

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks...

  5. [Applying local neural network and visible/near-infrared spectroscopy to estimating available nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in soil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qian; Yang, Yu-hong; Xu, Zhao-li; Jin, Yan; Guo, Yan; Lao, Cai-lian

    2014-08-01

    To establish the quantitative relationship between soil spectrum and the concentration of available nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in soil, the critical procedures of a new analysis method were examined, involving spectral preprocessing, wavebands selection and adoption of regression methods. As a result, a soil spectral analysis model was built using VIS/NIRS bands, with multiplicative scatter correction and first-derivative for spectral preprocessing, and local nonlinear regression method (Local regression method of BP neural network). The coefficients of correlation between the chemically determined and the modeled available nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for predicted samples were 0.90, 0.82 and 0.94, respectively. It is proved that the prediction of local regression method of BP neural network has better accuracy and stability than that of global regression methods. In addition, the estimation accuracy of soil available nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium was increased by 40.63%, 28.64% and 28.64%, respectively. Thus, the quantitative analysis model established by the local regression method of BP neural network could be used to estimate the concentration of available nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium rapidly. It is innovative for using local nonlinear method to improve the stability and reliability of the soil spectrum model for nutrient diagnosis, which provides technical support for dynamic monitoring and process control for the soil nutrient under different growth stages of field-growing crops.

  6. Fuzzy ARTMAP neural network for seafloor classification from multibeam sonar data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhou Xinghua; Chen Yongqi; Nick Emerson; Du Dewen

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a seafloor classification method of multibeam sonar data, based on the use of Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) neural networks. A general ART-based neural network, Fuzzy ARTMAP, has been proposed for seafloor classification of multibeam sonar data. An evolutionary strategy was used to generate new training samples near the cluster boundaries of the neural network, therefore the weights can be revised and refined by supervised learning. The proposed method resolves the training problem for Fuzzy ARTMAP neural networks, which are applied to seafloor classification of multibeam sonar data when there are less than adequate ground-truth samples. The results were synthetically analyzed in comparison with the standard Fuzzy ARTMAP network and a conventional Bayesian classifier.The conclusion can be drawn that Fuzzy ARTMAP neural networks combining with GA algorithms can be alternative powerful tools for seafloor classification of multibeam sonar data.

  7. Bayesian analysis of MEG visual evoked responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, D.M.; George, J.S.; Wood, C.C.

    1999-04-01

    The authors developed a method for analyzing neural electromagnetic data that allows probabilistic inferences to be drawn about regions of activation. The method involves the generation of a large number of possible solutions which both fir the data and prior expectations about the nature of probable solutions made explicit by a Bayesian formalism. In addition, they have introduced a model for the current distributions that produce MEG and (EEG) data that allows extended regions of activity, and can easily incorporate prior information such as anatomical constraints from MRI. To evaluate the feasibility and utility of the Bayesian approach with actual data, they analyzed MEG data from a visual evoked response experiment. They compared Bayesian analyses of MEG responses to visual stimuli in the left and right visual fields, in order to examine the sensitivity of the method to detect known features of human visual cortex organization. They also examined the changing pattern of cortical activation as a function of time.

  8. Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

    2015-08-01

    Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

  9. Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.

  10. ANALYSIS OF BAYESIAN CLASSIFIER ACCURACY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Schneider Costa

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The naïve Bayes classifier is considered one of the most effective classification algorithms today, competing with more modern and sophisticated classifiers. Despite being based on unrealistic (naïve assumption that all variables are independent, given the output class, the classifier provides proper results. However, depending on the scenario utilized (network structure, number of samples or training cases, number of variables, the network may not provide appropriate results. This study uses a process variable selection, using the chi-squared test to verify the existence of dependence between variables in the data model in order to identify the reasons which prevent a Bayesian network to provide good performance. A detailed analysis of the data is also proposed, unlike other existing work, as well as adjustments in case of limit values between two adjacent classes. Furthermore, variable weights are used in the calculation of a posteriori probabilities, calculated with mutual information function. Tests were applied in both a naïve Bayesian network and a hierarchical Bayesian network. After testing, a significant reduction in error rate has been observed. The naïve Bayesian network presented a drop in error rates from twenty five percent to five percent, considering the initial results of the classification process. In the hierarchical network, there was not only a drop in fifteen percent error rate, but also the final result came to zero.

  11. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  12. Elements of Bayesian experimental design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sivia, D.S. [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxon (United Kingdom)

    1997-09-01

    We consider some elements of the Bayesian approach that are important for optimal experimental design. While the underlying principles used are very general, and are explained in detail in a recent tutorial text, they are applied here to the specific case of characterising the inferential value of different resolution peakshapes. This particular issue was considered earlier by Silver, Sivia and Pynn (1989, 1990a, 1990b), and the following presentation confirms and extends the conclusions of their analysis.

  13. Neural network modelling of sediment-discharge relationships: Pictorial analysis of six computational methodologies applied to two rivers in Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghani, N. Ab; Abrahart, R. J.; Clifford, N. J.

    2009-04-01

    Neural networks can be trained to model the sediment-discharge relationship: numerous illustrative applications exist. The standard method of reporting involves using a scatterplot of observed versus predicted records, plus a handful of global statistics, to support an assessment of model skill. This traditional approach will nevertheless result in undesirable side effects since it reinforces the 'black box' criticisms and associated demonisation that is sometimes levelled at computational intelligence solutions: no 'line-of-best-fit' is ever supplied. This paper in contrast compares and evaluates six computational methods for modelling the sediment-discharge relationship from a structural and behavioural standpoint in which the exact nature of each model is visualised for the purposes of diagnostic appraisal and scientific enlightenment. The following methods are compared: backpropagation neural network; corrected power function; simple linear regression; piecewise linear regression using an M5 Model Tree; LOWESS; and Robust LOWESS. Modelling is restricted to a consideration of bivariate relationships. The models were developed on daily river discharge and sediment concentration datasets for two rivers in Missouri: Lower Salt River and Little Black River. Each dataset was divided into two parts using different methods and each model was first calibrated on one sub-set and thereafter tested on the other. The datasets were next swapped over and the process repeated. Each model is also evaluated using statistical measures calculated in HydroTest (http://www.hydrotest.org.uk/). The need for more benchmarking exercises of a similar nature is highlighted.

  14. Bayesian Games with Intentions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Bjorndahl

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We show that standard Bayesian games cannot represent the full spectrum of belief-dependent preferences. However, by introducing a fundamental distinction between intended and actual strategies, we remove this limitation. We define Bayesian games with intentions, generalizing both Bayesian games and psychological games, and prove that Nash equilibria in psychological games correspond to a special class of equilibria as defined in our setting.

  15. Small sample Bayesian analyses in assessment of weapon performance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Abundant test data are required in assessment of weapon performance.When weapon test data are insufficient,Bayesian analyses in small sample circumstance should be considered and the test data should be provided by simulations.The several Bayesian approaches are discussed and some limitations are founded.An improvement is put forward after limitations of Bayesian approaches available are analyzed and t he improved approach is applied to assessment of some new weapon performance.

  16. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  17. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2011-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

  18. A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zengkai Liu

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

  19. Bayesian calibration of car-following models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Hinsbergen, C.P.IJ.; Van Lint, H.W.C.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Van Zuylen, H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Recent research has revealed that there exist large inter-driver differences in car-following behavior such that different car-following models may apply to different drivers. This study applies Bayesian techniques to the calibration of car-following models, where prior distributions on each model p

  20. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  1. An introduction to Gaussian Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco

    2010-01-01

    The extraction of regulatory networks and pathways from postgenomic data is important for drug -discovery and development, as the extracted pathways reveal how genes or proteins regulate each other. Following up on the seminal paper of Friedman et al. (J Comput Biol 7:601-620, 2000), Bayesian networks have been widely applied as a popular tool to this end in systems biology research. Their popularity stems from the tractability of the marginal likelihood of the network structure, which is a consistent scoring scheme in the Bayesian context. This score is based on an integration over the entire parameter space, for which highly expensive computational procedures have to be applied when using more complex -models based on differential equations; for example, see (Bioinformatics 24:833-839, 2008). This chapter gives an introduction to reverse engineering regulatory networks and pathways with Gaussian Bayesian networks, that is Bayesian networks with the probabilistic BGe scoring metric [see (Geiger and Heckerman 235-243, 1995)]. In the BGe model, the data are assumed to stem from a Gaussian distribution and a normal-Wishart prior is assigned to the unknown parameters. Gaussian Bayesian network methodology for analysing static observational, static interventional as well as dynamic (observational) time series data will be described in detail in this chapter. Finally, we apply these Bayesian network inference methods (1) to observational and interventional flow cytometry (protein) data from the well-known RAF pathway to evaluate the global network reconstruction accuracy of Bayesian network inference and (2) to dynamic gene expression time series data of nine circadian genes in Arabidopsis thaliana to reverse engineer the unknown regulatory network topology for this domain.

  2. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  3. Bayesian missing data problems EM, data augmentation and noniterative computation

    CERN Document Server

    Tan, Ming T; Ng, Kai Wang

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian Missing Data Problems: EM, Data Augmentation and Noniterative Computation presents solutions to missing data problems through explicit or noniterative sampling calculation of Bayesian posteriors. The methods are based on the inverse Bayes formulae discovered by one of the author in 1995. Applying the Bayesian approach to important real-world problems, the authors focus on exact numerical solutions, a conditional sampling approach via data augmentation, and a noniterative sampling approach via EM-type algorithms. After introducing the missing data problems, Bayesian approach, and poste

  4. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2013-02-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework.

  5. Bayesian Learning and the Psychology of Rule Induction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endress, Ansgar D.

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, Bayesian learning models have been applied to an increasing variety of domains. While such models have been criticized on theoretical grounds, the underlying assumptions and predictions are rarely made concrete and tested experimentally. Here, I use Frank and Tenenbaum's (2011) Bayesian model of rule-learning as a case study to…

  6. Bayesian Compressed Sensing with Unknown Measurement Noise Level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas Lundgaard; Jørgensen, Peter Bjørn; Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) approximate Bayesian inference is applied to find sparse estimates from observations corrupted by additive noise. Current literature only vaguely considers the case where the noise level is unknown a priori. We show that for most state-of-the-art reconstruction a...

  7. Bayesian Student Modeling and the Problem of Parameter Specification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Agosta, John Mark; Perez de la Cruz, Jose Luis

    2001-01-01

    Discusses intelligent tutoring systems and the application of Bayesian networks to student modeling. Considers reasons for not using Bayesian networks, including the computational complexity of the algorithms and the difficulty of knowledge acquisition, and proposes an approach to simplify knowledge acquisition that applies causal independence to…

  8. Bayesian Item Selection in Constrained Adaptive Testing Using Shadow Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Bernard P.

    2010-01-01

    Application of Bayesian item selection criteria in computerized adaptive testing might result in improvement of bias and MSE of the ability estimates. The question remains how to apply Bayesian item selection criteria in the context of constrained adaptive testing, where large numbers of specifications have to be taken into account in the item…

  9. Konstruksi Bayesian Network Dengan Algoritma Bayesian Association Rule Mining Network

    OpenAIRE

    Octavian

    2015-01-01

    Beberapa tahun terakhir, Bayesian Network telah menjadi konsep yang populer digunakan dalam berbagai bidang kehidupan seperti dalam pengambilan sebuah keputusan dan menentukan peluang suatu kejadian dapat terjadi. Sayangnya, pengkonstruksian struktur dari Bayesian Network itu sendiri bukanlah hal yang sederhana. Oleh sebab itu, penelitian ini mencoba memperkenalkan algoritma Bayesian Association Rule Mining Network untuk memudahkan kita dalam mengkonstruksi Bayesian Network berdasarkan data ...

  10. SU-E-T-131: Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Overall Survival Prediction for Patients with Periampullary Carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gong, Y; Yu, J; Yeung, V; Palmer, J; Yu, Y; Lu, B; Babinsky, L; Burkhart, R; Leiby, B; Siow, V; Lavu, H; Rosato, E; Winter, J; Lewis, N; Sama, A; Mitchell, E; Anne, P; Hurwitz, M; Yeo, C; Bar-Ad, V [Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA (United States); and others

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Artificial neural networks (ANN) can be used to discover complex relations within datasets to help with medical decision making. This study aimed to develop an ANN method to predict two-year overall survival of patients with peri-ampullary cancer (PAC) following resection. Methods: Data were collected from 334 patients with PAC following resection treated in our institutional pancreatic tumor registry between 2006 and 2012. The dataset contains 14 variables including age, gender, T-stage, tumor differentiation, positive-lymph-node ratio, positive resection margins, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and tumor histology.After censoring for two-year survival analysis, 309 patients were left, of which 44 patients (∼15%) were randomly selected to form testing set. The remaining 265 cases were randomly divided into training set (211 cases, ∼80% of 265) and validation set (54 cases, ∼20% of 265) for 20 times to build 20 ANN models. Each ANN has one hidden layer with 5 units. The 20 ANN models were ranked according to their concordance index (c-index) of prediction on validation sets. To further improve prediction, the top 10% of ANN models were selected, and their outputs averaged for prediction on testing set. Results: By random division, 44 cases in testing set and the remaining 265 cases have approximately equal two-year survival rates, 36.4% and 35.5% respectively. The 20 ANN models, which were trained and validated on the 265 cases, yielded mean c-indexes as 0.59 and 0.63 on validation sets and the testing set, respectively. C-index was 0.72 when the two best ANN models (top 10%) were used in prediction on testing set. The c-index of Cox regression analysis was 0.63. Conclusion: ANN improved survival prediction for patients with PAC. More patient data and further analysis of additional factors may be needed for a more robust model, which will help guide physicians in providing optimal post-operative care. This project was supported by PA CURE Grant.

  11. Diagnosis of combined faults in Rotary Machinery by Non-Naive Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asr, Mahsa Yazdanian; Ettefagh, Mir Mohammad; Hassannejad, Reza; Razavi, Seyed Naser

    2017-02-01

    When combined faults happen in different parts of the rotating machines, their features are profoundly dependent. Experts are completely familiar with individuals faults characteristics and enough data are available from single faults but the problem arises, when the faults combined and the separation of characteristics becomes complex. Therefore, the experts cannot declare exact information about the symptoms of combined fault and its quality. In this paper to overcome this drawback, a novel method is proposed. The core idea of the method is about declaring combined fault without using combined fault features as training data set and just individual fault features are applied in training step. For this purpose, after data acquisition and resampling the obtained vibration signals, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is utilized to decompose multi component signals to Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). With the use of correlation coefficient, proper IMFs for feature extraction are selected. In feature extraction step, Shannon energy entropy of IMFs was extracted as well as statistical features. It is obvious that most of extracted features are strongly dependent. To consider this matter, Non-Naive Bayesian Classifier (NNBC) is appointed, which release the fundamental assumption of Naive Bayesian, i.e., the independence among features. To demonstrate the superiority of NNBC, other counterpart methods, include Normal Naive Bayesian classifier, Kernel Naive Bayesian classifier and Back Propagation Neural Networks were applied and the classification results are compared. An experimental vibration signals, collected from automobile gearbox, were used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. During the classification process, only the features, related individually to healthy state, bearing failure and gear failures, were assigned for training the classifier. But, combined fault features (combined gear and bearing failures) were examined as test data. The achieved

  12. Bayesian microsaccade detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihali, Andra; van Opheusden, Bas; Ma, Wei Ji

    2017-01-01

    Microsaccades are high-velocity fixational eye movements, with special roles in perception and cognition. The default microsaccade detection method is to determine when the smoothed eye velocity exceeds a threshold. We have developed a new method, Bayesian microsaccade detection (BMD), which performs inference based on a simple statistical model of eye positions. In this model, a hidden state variable changes between drift and microsaccade states at random times. The eye position is a biased random walk with different velocity distributions for each state. BMD generates samples from the posterior probability distribution over the eye state time series given the eye position time series. Applied to simulated data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with fewer errors than alternative algorithms, especially at high noise. Applied to EyeLink eye tracker data, BMD detects almost all the microsaccades detected by the default method, but also apparent microsaccades embedded in high noise—although these can also be interpreted as false positives. Next we apply the algorithms to data collected with a Dual Purkinje Image eye tracker, whose higher precision justifies defining the inferred microsaccades as ground truth. When we add artificial measurement noise, the inferences of all algorithms degrade; however, at noise levels comparable to EyeLink data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with 54% fewer errors than the default algorithm. Though unsuitable for online detection, BMD has other advantages: It returns probabilities rather than binary judgments, and it can be straightforwardly adapted as the generative model is refined. We make our algorithm available as a software package. PMID:28114483

  13. Bayesian Image Reconstruction Based on Voronoi Diagrams

    CERN Document Server

    Cabrera, G F; Hitschfeld, N

    2007-01-01

    We present a Bayesian Voronoi image reconstruction technique (VIR) for interferometric data. Bayesian analysis applied to the inverse problem allows us to derive the a-posteriori probability of a novel parameterization of interferometric images. We use a variable Voronoi diagram as our model in place of the usual fixed pixel grid. A quantization of the intensity field allows us to calculate the likelihood function and a-priori probabilities. The Voronoi image is optimized including the number of polygons as free parameters. We apply our algorithm to deconvolve simulated interferometric data. Residuals, restored images and chi^2 values are used to compare our reconstructions with fixed grid models. VIR has the advantage of modeling the image with few parameters, obtaining a better image from a Bayesian point of view.

  14. Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

  15. Bayesian Modelling of fMRI Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højen-Sørensen, Pedro; Hansen, Lars Kai; Rasmussen, Carl Edward

    2000-01-01

    We present a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for inferring the hidden psychological state (or neural activity) during single trial fMRI activation experiments with blocked task paradigms. Inference is based on Bayesian methodology, using a combination of analytical and a variety of Markov Chain Monte...

  16. SOMBI: Bayesian identification of parameter relations in unstructured cosmological data

    CERN Document Server

    Frank, Philipp; Enßlin, Torsten A

    2016-01-01

    This work describes the implementation and application of a correlation determination method based on Self Organizing Maps and Bayesian Inference (SOMBI). SOMBI aims to automatically identify relations between different observed parameters in unstructured cosmological or astrophysical surveys by automatically identifying data clusters in high-dimensional datasets via the Self Organizing Map neural network algorithm. Parameter relations are then revealed by means of a Bayesian inference within respective identified data clusters. Specifically such relations are assumed to be parametrized as a polynomial of unknown order. The Bayesian approach results in a posterior probability distribution function for respective polynomial coefficients. To decide which polynomial order suffices to describe correlation structures in data, we include a method for model selection, the Bayesian Information Criterion, to the analysis. The performance of the SOMBI algorithm is tested with mock data. As illustration we also provide ...

  17. Multi-Fraction Bayesian Sediment Transport Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark L. Schmelter

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian approach to sediment transport modeling can provide a strong basis for evaluating and propagating model uncertainty, which can be useful in transport applications. Previous work in developing and applying Bayesian sediment transport models used a single grain size fraction or characterized the transport of mixed-size sediment with a single characteristic grain size. Although this approach is common in sediment transport modeling, it precludes the possibility of capturing processes that cause mixed-size sediments to sort and, thereby, alter the grain size available for transport and the transport rates themselves. This paper extends development of a Bayesian transport model from one to k fractional dimensions. The model uses an existing transport function as its deterministic core and is applied to the dataset used to originally develop the function. The Bayesian multi-fraction model is able to infer the posterior distributions for essential model parameters and replicates predictive distributions of both bulk and fractional transport. Further, the inferred posterior distributions are used to evaluate parametric and other sources of variability in relations representing mixed-size interactions in the original model. Successful OPEN ACCESS J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3 1067 development of the model demonstrates that Bayesian methods can be used to provide a robust and rigorous basis for quantifying uncertainty in mixed-size sediment transport. Such a method has heretofore been unavailable and allows for the propagation of uncertainty in sediment transport applications.

  18. Bayesian Lensing Shear Measurement

    CERN Document Server

    Bernstein, Gary M

    2013-01-01

    We derive an estimator of weak gravitational lensing shear from background galaxy images that avoids noise-induced biases through a rigorous Bayesian treatment of the measurement. The Bayesian formalism requires a prior describing the (noiseless) distribution of the target galaxy population over some parameter space; this prior can be constructed from low-noise images of a subsample of the target population, attainable from long integrations of a fraction of the survey field. We find two ways to combine this exact treatment of noise with rigorous treatment of the effects of the instrumental point-spread function and sampling. The Bayesian model fitting (BMF) method assigns a likelihood of the pixel data to galaxy models (e.g. Sersic ellipses), and requires the unlensed distribution of galaxies over the model parameters as a prior. The Bayesian Fourier domain (BFD) method compresses galaxies to a small set of weighted moments calculated after PSF correction in Fourier space. It requires the unlensed distributi...

  19. Bayesian psychometric scaling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, G.J.A.; Berg, van den S.M.; Veldkamp, B.P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.

    2015-01-01

    In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item resp

  20. Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

    We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

  1. Practical Bayesian Tomography

    CERN Document Server

    Granade, Christopher; Cory, D G

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of- the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we solve all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Husz\\'ar and Houlsby and by Ferrie, to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first informative priors on quantum states and channels. Finally, we develop a method that allows online tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.

  2. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  3. Bayesian Optimization in High Dimensions via Random Embeddings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Z.; Zoghi, M.; Hutter, F.; Matheson, D.; de Freitas, N.; Rossi, F.

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian optimization techniques have been successfully applied to robotics, planning, sensor placement, recommendation, advertising, intelligent user interfaces and automatic algorithm configuration. Despite these successes, the approach is restricted to problems of moderate dimension, and several

  4. Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

    CERN Document Server

    Groer, Peter G

    2002-01-01

    We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed comp...

  5. Dynamic Bayesian Combination of Multiple Imperfect Classifiers

    CERN Document Server

    Simpson, Edwin; Psorakis, Ioannis; Smith, Arfon

    2012-01-01

    Classifier combination methods need to make best use of the outputs of multiple, imperfect classifiers to enable higher accuracy classifications. In many situations, such as when human decisions need to be combined, the base decisions can vary enormously in reliability. A Bayesian approach to such uncertain combination allows us to infer the differences in performance between individuals and to incorporate any available prior knowledge about their abilities when training data is sparse. In this paper we explore Bayesian classifier combination, using the computationally efficient framework of variational Bayesian inference. We apply the approach to real data from a large citizen science project, Galaxy Zoo Supernovae, and show that our method far outperforms other established approaches to imperfect decision combination. We go on to analyse the putative community structure of the decision makers, based on their inferred decision making strategies, and show that natural groupings are formed. Finally we present ...

  6. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. W. Petty

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals – whether Bayesian or not – lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.

  7. Sediment classification using neural networks: An example from the site-U1344A of IODP Expedition 323 in the Bering Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojha, Maheswar; Maiti, Saumen

    2016-03-01

    A novel approach based on the concept of Bayesian neural network (BNN) has been implemented for classifying sediment boundaries using downhole log data obtained during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 323 in the Bering Sea slope region. The Bayesian framework in conjunction with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)/hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) learning paradigm has been applied to constrain the lithology boundaries using density, density porosity, gamma ray, sonic P-wave velocity and electrical resistivity at the Hole U1344A. We have demonstrated the effectiveness of our supervised classification methodology by comparing our findings with a conventional neural network and a Bayesian neural network optimized by scaled conjugate gradient method (SCG), and tested the robustness of the algorithm in the presence of red noise in the data. The Bayesian results based on the HMC algorithm (BNN.HMC) resolve detailed finer structures at certain depths in addition to main lithology such as silty clay, diatom clayey silt and sandy silt. Our method also recovers the lithology information from a depth ranging between 615 and 655 m Wireline log Matched depth below Sea Floor of no core recovery zone. Our analyses demonstrate that the BNN based approach renders robust means for the classification of complex lithology successions at the Hole U1344A, which could be very useful for other studies and understanding the oceanic crustal inhomogeneity and structural discontinuities.

  8. Bayesian Estimation of Thermonuclear Reaction Rates

    CERN Document Server

    Iliadis, Christian; Coc, Alain; Timmes, Frank; Starrfield, Sumner

    2016-01-01

    The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S-factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied in the past to this problem, all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extra-solar planets, gravitational waves, and type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present the first astrophysical S-factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the d(p,$\\gamma$)$^3$He, $^3$He($^3$He,2p)$^4$He, and $^3$He($\\alpha$,$\\gamma$)$^7$Be reactions,...

  9. Bayesian Estimation of Thermonuclear Reaction Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S.; Coc, A.; Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S.

    2016-11-01

    The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S-factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S-factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p,γ)3He, 3He(3He,2p)4He, and 3He(α,γ)7Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

  10. Stochastic margin-based structure learning of Bayesian network classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael

    2013-02-01

    The margin criterion for parameter learning in graphical models gained significant impact over the last years. We use the maximum margin score for discriminatively optimizing the structure of Bayesian network classifiers. Furthermore, greedy hill-climbing and simulated annealing search heuristics are applied to determine the classifier structures. In the experiments, we demonstrate the advantages of maximum margin optimized Bayesian network structures in terms of classification performance compared to traditionally used discriminative structure learning methods. Stochastic simulated annealing requires less score evaluations than greedy heuristics. Additionally, we compare generative and discriminative parameter learning on both generatively and discriminatively structured Bayesian network classifiers. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve similar classification performance as support vector machines. Moreover, missing feature values during classification can be handled by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where purely discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  11. Hybrid Batch Bayesian Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Azimi, Javad; Fern, Xiaoli

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Optimization aims at optimizing an unknown non-convex/concave function that is costly to evaluate. We are interested in application scenarios where concurrent function evaluations are possible. Under such a setting, BO could choose to either sequentially evaluate the function, one input at a time and wait for the output of the function before making the next selection, or evaluate the function at a batch of multiple inputs at once. These two different settings are commonly referred to as the sequential and batch settings of Bayesian Optimization. In general, the sequential setting leads to better optimization performance as each function evaluation is selected with more information, whereas the batch setting has an advantage in terms of the total experimental time (the number of iterations). In this work, our goal is to combine the strength of both settings. Specifically, we systematically analyze Bayesian optimization using Gaussian process as the posterior estimator and provide a hybrid algorithm t...

  12. Bayesian Visual Odometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Center, Julian L.; Knuth, Kevin H.

    2011-03-01

    Visual odometry refers to tracking the motion of a body using an onboard vision system. Practical visual odometry systems combine the complementary accuracy characteristics of vision and inertial measurement units. The Mars Exploration Rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, used this type of visual odometry. The visual odometry algorithms in Spirit and Opportunity were based on Bayesian methods, but a number of simplifying approximations were needed to deal with onboard computer limitations. Furthermore, the allowable motion of the rover had to be severely limited so that computations could keep up. Recent advances in computer technology make it feasible to implement a fully Bayesian approach to visual odometry. This approach combines dense stereo vision, dense optical flow, and inertial measurements. As with all true Bayesian methods, it also determines error bars for all estimates. This approach also offers the possibility of using Micro-Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) inertial components, which are more economical, weigh less, and consume less power than conventional inertial components.

  13. Morphological neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritter, G.X.; Sussner, P. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The theory of artificial neural networks has been successfully applied to a wide variety of pattern recognition problems. In this theory, the first step in computing the next state of a neuron or in performing the next layer neural network computation involves the linear operation of multiplying neural values by their synaptic strengths and adding the results. Thresholding usually follows the linear operation in order to provide for nonlinearity of the network. In this paper we introduce a novel class of neural networks, called morphological neural networks, in which the operations of multiplication and addition are replaced by addition and maximum (or minimum), respectively. By taking the maximum (or minimum) of sums instead of the sum of products, morphological network computation is nonlinear before thresholding. As a consequence, the properties of morphological neural networks are drastically different than those of traditional neural network models. In this paper we consider some of these differences and provide some particular examples of morphological neural network.

  14. Comparison of Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter and successive restrictions algorithms for computing probability distributions in Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smail, Linda

    2016-06-01

    The basic task of any probabilistic inference system in Bayesian networks is computing the posterior probability distribution for a subset or subsets of random variables, given values or evidence for some other variables from the same Bayesian network. Many methods and algorithms have been developed to exact and approximate inference in Bayesian networks. This work compares two exact inference methods in Bayesian networks-Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter and the successive restrictions algorithm-from the perspective of computational efficiency. The two methods were applied for comparison to a Chest Clinic Bayesian Network. Results indicate that the successive restrictions algorithm shows more computational efficiency than the Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter algorithm.

  15. Probabilistic Inferences in Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Jianguo

    2010-01-01

    This chapter summarizes the popular inferences methods in Bayesian networks. The results demonstrates that the evidence can propagated across the Bayesian networks by any links, whatever it is forward or backward or intercausal style. The belief updating of Bayesian networks can be obtained by various available inference techniques. Theoretically, exact inferences in Bayesian networks is feasible and manageable. However, the computing and inference is NP-hard. That means, in applications, in ...

  16. Bayesian multiple target tracking

    CERN Document Server

    Streit, Roy L

    2013-01-01

    This second edition has undergone substantial revision from the 1999 first edition, recognizing that a lot has changed in the multiple target tracking field. One of the most dramatic changes is in the widespread use of particle filters to implement nonlinear, non-Gaussian Bayesian trackers. This book views multiple target tracking as a Bayesian inference problem. Within this framework it develops the theory of single target tracking, multiple target tracking, and likelihood ratio detection and tracking. In addition to providing a detailed description of a basic particle filter that implements

  17. BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.

  18. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  19. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    and edges. The nodes represent variables, which may be either discrete or continuous. An edge between two nodes A and B indicates a direct influence between the state of A and the state of B, which in some domains can also be interpreted as a causal relation. The wide-spread use of Bayesian networks...

  20. A tutorial on Bayesian Normal linear regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klauenberg, Katy; Wübbeler, Gerd; Mickan, Bodo; Harris, Peter; Elster, Clemens

    2015-12-01

    Regression is a common task in metrology and often applied to calibrate instruments, evaluate inter-laboratory comparisons or determine fundamental constants, for example. Yet, a regression model cannot be uniquely formulated as a measurement function, and consequently the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and its supplements are not applicable directly. Bayesian inference, however, is well suited to regression tasks, and has the advantage of accounting for additional a priori information, which typically robustifies analyses. Furthermore, it is anticipated that future revisions of the GUM shall also embrace the Bayesian view. Guidance on Bayesian inference for regression tasks is largely lacking in metrology. For linear regression models with Gaussian measurement errors this tutorial gives explicit guidance. Divided into three steps, the tutorial first illustrates how a priori knowledge, which is available from previous experiments, can be translated into prior distributions from a specific class. These prior distributions have the advantage of yielding analytical, closed form results, thus avoiding the need to apply numerical methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Secondly, formulas for the posterior results are given, explained and illustrated, and software implementations are provided. In the third step, Bayesian tools are used to assess the assumptions behind the suggested approach. These three steps (prior elicitation, posterior calculation, and robustness to prior uncertainty and model adequacy) are critical to Bayesian inference. The general guidance given here for Normal linear regression tasks is accompanied by a simple, but real-world, metrological example. The calibration of a flow device serves as a running example and illustrates the three steps. It is shown that prior knowledge from previous calibrations of the same sonic nozzle enables robust predictions even for extrapolations.

  1. Uncertainty, reward, and attention in the Bayesian brain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whiteley, Louise Emma

    2008-01-01

    The ‘Bayesian Coding Hypothesis’ formalises the classic Helmholtzian picture of perception as inverse inference, stating that the brain uses Bayes’ rule to compute posterior belief distributions over states of the world. There is much behavioural evidence that human observers can behave Bayes...... in the focus of attention. When faced instead with a complex scene, the brain can’t be Bayes-optimal everywhere. We suggest that a general limitation on the representation of complex posteriors causes the brain to make approximations, which are then locally re¿ned by attention. This framework extends ideas...... of attention as Bayesian prior, and uni¿es apparently disparate attentional ‘bottlenecks’. We present simulations of three key paradigms, and discuss how such modelling could be extended to more detailed, neurally inspired settings. Broadening the Bayesian picture of perception and strengthening its connection...

  2. Neural Induction, Neural Fate Stabilization, and Neural Stem Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sally A. Moody

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The promise of stem cell therapy is expected to greatly benefit the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases. An underlying biological reason for the progressive functional losses associated with these diseases is the extremely low natural rate of self-repair in the nervous system. Although the mature CNS harbors a limited number of self-renewing stem cells, these make a significant contribution to only a few areas of brain. Therefore, it is particularly important to understand how to manipulate embryonic stem cells and adult neural stem cells so their descendants can repopulate and functionally repair damaged brain regions. A large knowledge base has been gathered about the normal processes of neural development. The time has come for this information to be applied to the problems of obtaining sufficient, neurally committed stem cells for clinical use. In this article we review the process of neural induction, by which the embryonic ectodermal cells are directed to form the neural plate, and the process of neural�fate stabilization, by which neural plate cells expand in number and consolidate their neural fate. We will present the current knowledge of the transcription factors and signaling molecules that are known to be involved in these processes. We will discuss how these factors may be relevant to manipulating embryonic stem cells to express a neural fate and to produce large numbers of neurally committed, yet undifferentiated, stem cells for transplantation therapies.

  3. Proceedings of the First Astrostatistics School: Bayesian Methods in Cosmology

    CERN Document Server

    Hortúa, Héctor J

    2014-01-01

    These are the proceedings of the First Astrostatistics School: Bayesian Methods in Cosmology, held in Bogot\\'a D.C., Colombia, June 9-13, 2014. The first astrostatistics school has been the first event in Colombia where statisticians and cosmologists from some universities in Bogot\\'a met to discuss the statistic methods applied to cosmology, especially the use of Bayesian statistics in the study of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), Large Scale Structure (LSS) and weak lensing.

  4. Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter

    2015-01-01

    As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

  5. Bayesian networks in educational assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...

  6. The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selig, Marco, E-mail: mselig@mpa-Garching.mpg.de [Max Planck Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Straße 1, D-85748 Garching, Germany, and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1, D-80539 München (Germany)

    2014-12-05

    We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D{sup 3}PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

  7. Bayesian spatial modeling applied to environmental monitoring due to the use of different drilling fluids in the maritime exploration activity; Modelagem espacial Bayesiana aplicada ao monitoramento ambiental decorrente do uso de diferentes fluidos de perfuracao na atividade exploratoria maritima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulgati, Fernando H. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Modelagem de Bacias (LAB2M); Zouain, Ricardo N.A. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudos de Geologia Costeira e Oceanica; Fachel, Jandyra M.G. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Inst. de Matematica; Landau, Luiz [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Metodos Computacionais em Engenharia (LAMCE)

    2004-07-01

    Controlling and monitoring environmental researches have accompanied the development of offshore exploration drill activities aimed at finding oil and gas reserves, as there has been an increase in the environmental demands and restrictions. Three stages of the drilling process were isolated and the effects of different fluids were measured using Bayesian spatial models. The probable impact of the use of non-aqueous fluid (NAF) was measured through changes observed in sea sediments in three different occasions: previous to the activity, one (1) month after the end of the activity, and one (1) year after the end of the activity. BACI (Before-After Control Impact) design, which allows the control of temporal and spatial variation components, was chosen. (author)

  8. Fuzzy stochastic neural network model for structural system identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaomo; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Yuan, Yong

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic fuzzy stochastic neural network model for nonparametric system identification using ambient vibration data. The model is developed to handle two types of imprecision in the sensed data: fuzzy information and measurement uncertainties. The dimension of the input vector is determined by using the false nearest neighbor approach. A Bayesian information criterion is applied to obtain the optimum number of stochastic neurons in the model. A fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is employed as a data mining tool to divide the sensed data into clusters with common features. The fuzzy stochastic model is created by combining the fuzzy clusters of input vectors with the radial basis activation functions in the stochastic neural network. A natural gradient method is developed based on the Kullback-Leibler distance criterion for quick convergence of the model training. The model is validated using a power density pseudospectrum approach and a Bayesian hypothesis testing-based metric. The proposed methodology is investigated with numerically simulated data from a Markov Chain model and a two-story planar frame, and experimentally sensed data from ambient vibration data of a benchmark structure.

  9. Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Robert

    2016-01-01

    During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

  10. Prediction of HPLC retention times of tebipenem pivoxyl and its degradation products in solid state by applying adaptive artificial neural network with recursive features elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizera, Mikołaj; Talaczyńska, Alicja; Zalewski, Przemysław; Skibiński, Robert; Cielecka-Piontek, Judyta

    2015-05-01

    A sensitive and fast HPLC method using ultraviolet diode-array detector (DAD)/electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (Q-TOF-MS/MS) was developed for the determination of tebipenem pivoxyl and in the presence of degradation products formed during thermolysis. The chromatographic separations were performed on stationary phases produced in core-shell technology with particle diameter of 5.0 µm. The mobile phases consisted of formic acid (0.1%) and acetonitrile at different ratios. The flow rate was 0.8 mL/min while the wavelength was set at 331 nm. The stability characteristics of tebipenem pivoxyl were studied by performing stress tests in the solid state in dry air (RH=0%) and at an increased relative air humidity (RH=90%). The validation parameters such as selectivity, accuracy, precision and sensitivity were found to be satisfying. The satisfied selectivity and precision of determination were obtained for the separation of tebipenem pivoxyl from its degradation products using a stationary phase with 5.0 µm particles. The evaluation of the chemical structure of the 9 degradation products of tebipenem pivoxyl was conducted following separation based on the stationary phase with a 5.0 µm particle size by applying a Q-TOF-MS/MS detector. The main degradation products of tebipenem pivoxyl were identified: a product resulting from the condensation of the substituents of 1-(4,5-dihydro-1,3-thiazol-2-yl)-3-azetidinyl]sulfanyl and acid and ester forms of tebipenem with an open β-lactam ring in dry air at an increased temperature (RH=0%, T=393 K) as well as acid and ester forms of tebipenem with an open β-lactam ring at an increased relative air humidity and an elevated temperature (RH=90%, T=333 K). Retention times of tebipenem pivoxyl and its degradation products were used as training data set for predictive model of quantitative structure-retention relationship. An artificial neural network with adaptation protocol and extensive feature selection process

  11. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  12. Bayesian community detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

    2012-01-01

    Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...

  13. Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...... in a Matlab toolbox, is demonstrated for non-negative decompositions and compared with non-negative matrix factorization....

  14. Design and Algorithm of Neural Network Applied in Switches%开关电器的神经网络设计与算法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈兆仁; 戴瑜兴

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the application of neural Net work in switches,and proposes a method of dividing neural net work into groups and its training algorithm.%根据神经网络的基本理论,研究了神经网络在电器设备中的应用,提出了神经网络 的分块构造方法和神经网络分块学习算法,并通过实验模拟达到实际要求。

  15. On the use of back propagation and radial basis function neural networks in surface roughness prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markopoulos, Angelos P.; Georgiopoulos, Sotirios; Manolakos, Dimitrios E.

    2016-03-01

    Various artificial neural networks types are examined and compared for the prediction of surface roughness in manufacturing technology. The aim of the study is to evaluate different kinds of neural networks and observe their performance and applicability on the same problem. More specifically, feed-forward artificial neural networks are trained with three different back propagation algorithms, namely the adaptive back propagation algorithm of the steepest descent with the use of momentum term, the back propagation Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and the back propagation Bayesian algorithm. Moreover, radial basis function neural networks are examined. All the aforementioned algorithms are used for the prediction of surface roughness in milling, trained with the same input parameters and output data so that they can be compared. The advantages and disadvantages, in terms of the quality of the results, computational cost and time are identified. An algorithm for the selection of the spread constant is applied and tests are performed for the determination of the neural network with the best performance. The finally selected neural networks can satisfactorily predict the quality of the manufacturing process performed, through simulation and input-output surfaces for combinations of the input data, which correspond to milling cutting conditions.

  16. Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

    2007-01-01

    Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

  17. Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldehinkel, Albertine J

    2016-09-01

    For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field.

  18. Multivariate discrimination technique based on the Bayesian theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIN Ping; PAN Chang-zhou; XIAO Wei-guo

    2007-01-01

    A multivariate discrimination technique was established based on the Bayesian theory. Using this technique, P/S ratios of different types (e.g., Pn/Sn, Pn/Lg, Pg/Sn or Pg/Lg) measured within different frequency bands and from different stations were combined together to discriminate seismic events in Central Asia. Major advantages of the Bayesian approach are that the probability to be an explosion for any unknown event can be directly calculated given the measurements of a group of discriminants, and at the same time correlations among these discriminants can be fully taken into account. It was proved theoretically that the Bayesian technique would be optimal and its discriminating performance would be better than that of any individual discriminant as well as better than that yielded by the linear combination approach ignoring correlations among discriminants. This conclusion was also validated in this paper by applying the Bayesian approach to the above-mentioned observed data.

  19. A Bayesian Optimisation Algorithm for the Nurse Scheduling Problem

    CERN Document Server

    Jingpeng, Li

    2008-01-01

    A Bayesian optimization algorithm for the nurse scheduling problem is presented, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each nurses assignment. Unlike our previous work that used Gas to implement implicit learning, the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, ie. Eventually, we will be able to identify and mix building blocks directly. The Bayesian optimization algorithm is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated, ie in our case, a new rule string has been obtained. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again usin...

  20. Bayesian system reliability assessment under fuzzy environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, H.-C

    2004-03-01

    The Bayesian system reliability assessment under fuzzy environments is proposed in this paper. In order to apply the Bayesian approach, the fuzzy parameters are assumed as fuzzy random variables with fuzzy prior distributions. The (conventional) Bayes estimation method will be used to create the fuzzy Bayes point estimator of system reliability by invoking the well-known theorem called 'Resolution Identity' in fuzzy sets theory. On the other hand, we also provide the computational procedures to evaluate the membership degree of any given Bayes point estimate of system reliability. In order to achieve this purpose, we transform the original problem into a nonlinear programming problem. This nonlinear programming problem is then divided into four subproblems for the purpose of simplifying computation. Finally, the subproblems can be solved by using any commercial optimizers, e.g. GAMS or LINGO.

  1. Bayesian modelling of geostatistical malaria risk data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Gosoniu

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian geostatistical models applied to malaria risk data quantify the environment-disease relations, identify significant environmental predictors of malaria transmission and provide model-based predictions of malaria risk together with their precision. These models are often based on the stationarity assumption which implies that spatial correlation is a function of distance between locations and independent of location. We relax this assumption and analyse malaria survey data in Mali using a Bayesian non-stationary model. Model fit and predictions are based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. Model validation compares the predictive ability of the non-stationary model with the stationary analogue. Results indicate that the stationarity assumption is important because it influences the significance of environmental factors and the corresponding malaria risk maps.

  2. Bayesian modelling of geostatistical malaria risk data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosoniu, L; Vounatsou, P; Sogoba, N; Smith, T

    2006-11-01

    Bayesian geostatistical models applied to malaria risk data quantify the environment-disease relations, identify significant environmental predictors of malaria transmission and provide model-based predictions of malaria risk together with their precision. These models are often based on the stationarity assumption which implies that spatial correlation is a function of distance between locations and independent of location. We relax this assumption and analyse malaria survey data in Mali using a Bayesian non-stationary model. Model fit and predictions are based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. Model validation compares the predictive ability of the non-stationary model with the stationary analogue. Results indicate that the stationarity assumption is important because it influences the significance of environmental factors and the corresponding malaria risk maps.

  3. Machine learning a Bayesian and optimization perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Theodoridis, Sergios

    2015-01-01

    This tutorial text gives a unifying perspective on machine learning by covering both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, which rely on optimization techniques, as well as Bayesian inference, which is based on a hierarchy of probabilistic models. The book presents the major machine learning methods as they have been developed in different disciplines, such as statistics, statistical and adaptive signal processing and computer science. Focusing on the physical reasoning behind the mathematics, all the various methods and techniques are explained in depth, supported by examples and problems, giving an invaluable resource to the student and researcher for understanding and applying machine learning concepts. The book builds carefully from the basic classical methods to the most recent trends, with chapters written to be as self-contained as possible, making the text suitable for different courses: pattern recognition, statistical/adaptive signal processing, statistical/Bayesian learning, as well as shor...

  4. Integrative bayesian network analysis of genomic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Yang; Stingo, Francesco C; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran

    2014-01-01

    Rapid development of genome-wide profiling technologies has made it possible to conduct integrative analysis on genomic data from multiple platforms. In this study, we develop a novel integrative Bayesian network approach to investigate the relationships between genetic and epigenetic alterations as well as how these mutations affect a patient's clinical outcome. We take a Bayesian network approach that admits a convenient decomposition of the joint distribution into local distributions. Exploiting the prior biological knowledge about regulatory mechanisms, we model each local distribution as linear regressions. This allows us to analyze multi-platform genome-wide data in a computationally efficient manner. We illustrate the performance of our approach through simulation studies. Our methods are motivated by and applied to a multi-platform glioblastoma dataset, from which we reveal several biologically relevant relationships that have been validated in the literature as well as new genes that could potentially be novel biomarkers for cancer progression.

  5. Learning Bayesian networks using genetic algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Fei; Wang Xiufeng; Rao Yimei

    2007-01-01

    A new method to evaluate the fitness of the Bayesian networks according to the observed data is provided. The main advantage of this criterion is that it is suitable for both the complete and incomplete cases while the others not.Moreover it facilitates the computation greatly. In order to reduce the search space, the notation of equivalent class proposed by David Chickering is adopted. Instead of using the method directly, the novel criterion, variable ordering, and equivalent class are combined,moreover the proposed mthod avoids some problems caused by the previous one. Later, the genetic algorithm which allows global convergence, lack in the most of the methods searching for Bayesian network is applied to search for a good model in thisspace. To speed up the convergence, the genetic algorithm is combined with the greedy algorithm. Finally, the simulation shows the validity of the proposed approach.

  6. Bayesian image reconstruction: Application to emission tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nunez, J.; Llacer, J.

    1989-02-01

    In this paper we propose a Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) method of image reconstruction in the Bayesian framework for the Poisson noise case. We use entropy to define the prior probability and likelihood to define the conditional probability. The method uses sharpness parameters which can be theoretically computed or adjusted, allowing us to obtain MAP reconstructions without the problem of the grey'' reconstructions associated with the pre Bayesian reconstructions. We have developed several ways to solve the reconstruction problem and propose a new iterative algorithm which is stable, maintains positivity and converges to feasible images faster than the Maximum Likelihood Estimate method. We have successfully applied the new method to the case of Emission Tomography, both with simulated and real data. 41 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Bayesian data analysis tools for atomic physics

    CERN Document Server

    Trassinelli, Martino

    2016-01-01

    We present an introduction to some concepts of Bayesian data analysis in the context of atomic physics. Starting from basic rules of probability, we present the Bayes' theorem and its applications. In particular we discuss about how to calculate simple and joint probability distributions and the Bayesian evidence, a model dependent quantity that allows to assign probabilities to different hypotheses from the analysis of a same data set. To give some practical examples, these methods are applied to two concrete cases. In the first example, the presence or not of a satellite line in an atomic spectrum is investigated. In the second example, we determine the most probable model among a set of possible profiles from the analysis of a statistically poor spectrum. We show also how to calculate the probability distribution of the main spectral component without having to determine uniquely the spectrum modeling. For these two studies, we implement the program Nested fit to calculate the different probability distrib...

  8. Bayesian analysis of multiple direct detection experiments

    CERN Document Server

    Arina, Chiara

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian methods offer a coherent and efficient framework for implementing uncertainties into induction problems. In this article, we review how this approach applies to the analysis of dark matter direct detection experiments. In particular we discuss the exclusion limit of XENON100 and the debated hints of detection under the hypothesis of a WIMP signal. Within parameter inference, marginalizing consistently over uncertainties to extract robust posterior probability distributions, we find that the claimed tension between XENON100 and the other experiments can be partially alleviated in isospin violating scenario, while elastic scattering model appears to be compatible with the classical approach. We then move to model comparison, for which Bayesian methods are particularly well suited. Firstly, we investigate the annual modulation seen in CoGeNT data, finding that there is weak evidence for a modulation. Modulation models due to other physics compare unfavorably with the WIMP models, paying the price for th...

  9. Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim

    2015-01-01

    This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

  10. Analysis of the internal representations developed by neural networks for structures applied to quantitative structure--activity relationship studies of benzodiazepines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micheli, A; Sperduti, A; Starita, A; Bianucci, A M

    2001-01-01

    An application of recursive cascade correlation (CC) neural networks to quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) studies is presented, with emphasis on the study of the internal representations developed by the neural networks. Recursive CC is a neural network model recently proposed for the processing of structured data. It allows the direct handling of chemical compounds as labeled ordered directed graphs, and constitutes a novel approach to QSAR. The adopted representation of molecular structure captures, in a quite general and flexible way, significant topological aspects and chemical functionalities for each specific class of molecules showing a particular chemical reactivity or biological activity. A class of 1,4-benzodiazepin-2-ones is analyzed by the proposed approach. It compares favorably versus the traditional QSAR treatment based on equations. To show the ability of the model in capturing most of the structural features that account for the biological activity, the internal representations developed by the networks are analyzed by principal component analysis. This analysis shows that the networks are able to discover relevant structural features just on the basis of the association between the molecular morphology and the target property (affinity).

  11. Bayesian Intersubjectivity and Quantum Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Suárez, Marcos; Santos, David J.

    2005-02-01

    Two of the major approaches to probability, namely, frequentism and (subjectivistic) Bayesian theory, are discussed, together with the replacement of frequentist objectivity for Bayesian intersubjectivity. This discussion is then expanded to Quantum Theory, as quantum states and operations can be seen as structural elements of a subjective nature.

  12. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  13. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  14. Approximate Bayesian computation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Sunnåker

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

  15. Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin

    2016-04-01

    Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

  16. BP神经网络在心理障碍诊断中的应用研究%THE APPLIED RESEARCH OF BP NEURAL NETWORK IN THE DIAGNOSTIC OF MENTAL DISORDERS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔玉洁; 熊海灵; 朱明强

    2012-01-01

    This system illustrates the basic principles of the neural network algorithm and establishes a psychological diagnosis model based on L-M algorithm which uses common mental illness among college students as subjects. By fully using L-M algorithm' s global optimization and local convergence characteristics with BP neural network optimization, the psychological diagnosis model based on improved BP algorithm is established to realize simple mode recognition. Simulation outcomes illustrate that the model reduces training iterations and time with high accuracy. When applying the neural network into establishing a psychological diagnostic system, it is effective too.%以高校大学生常见心理疾病作为研究对象,充分利用L-M算法的全局寻优性及局部收敛性的特点对BP神经网络进行优化,建立基于改进的BP算法的心理诊断模型,实现简单的模式识别.仿真结果表明:该模型减少了训练迭代次数,缩短了训练时间,具有较高的准确性,应用该神经网络建立心理障碍诊断系统也是有效的.

  17. How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

    2013-01-01

    Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science primar

  18. Training of reverse propagation neural networks applied to neutron dosimetry; Entrenamiento de redes neuronales de propagacion inversa aplicadas a la dosimetria de neutrones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez P, C. F.; Martinez B, M. R.; Leon P, A. A.; Espinoza G, J. G.; Castaneda M, V. H.; Solis S, L. O.; Castaneda M, R.; Ortiz R, M.; Vega C, H. R. [Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Av. Ramon Lopez Velarde 801, Col. Centro, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico); Mendez V, R. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas, Laboratorio de Patrones Neutronicos, Av. Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Gallego, E. [Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Departamento de Ingenieria Nuclear, ETSI Industriales, Jose Gutierrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid (Spain); De Sousa L, M. A. [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear / CNEN, Av. Pte. Antonio Carlos 6627, 31270-901 Pampulha, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (Brazil)

    2016-10-15

    Neutron dosimetry is of great importance in radiation protection as aims to provide dosimetric quantities to assess the magnitude of detrimental health effects due to exposure of neutron radiation. To quantify detriment to health is necessary to evaluate the dose received by the occupationally exposed personnel using different detection systems called dosimeters, which have very dependent responses to the energy distribution of neutrons. The neutron detection is a much more complex problem than the detection of charged particles, since it does not carry an electric charge, does not cause direct ionization and has a greater penetration power giving the possibility of interacting with matter in a different way. Because of this, various neutron detection systems have been developed, among which the Bonner spheres spectrometric system stands out due to the advantages that possesses, such as a wide range of energy, high sensitivity and easy operation. However, once obtained the counting rates, the problem lies in the neutron spectrum deconvolution, necessary for the calculation of the doses, using different mathematical methods such as Monte Carlo, maximum entropy, iterative methods among others, which present various difficulties that have motivated the development of new technologies. Nowadays, methods based on artificial intelligence technologies are being used to perform neutron dosimetry, mainly using the theory of artificial neural networks. In these new methods the need for spectrum reconstruction can be eliminated for the calculation of the doses. In this work an artificial neural network or reverse propagation was trained for the calculation of 15 equivalent doses from the counting rates of the Bonner spheres spectrometric system using a set of 7 spheres, one of 2 spheres and two of a single sphere of different sizes, testing different error values until finding the most appropriate. The optimum network topology was obtained through the robust design

  19. Top-of-the-atmosphere shortwave flux estimation from satellite observations: an empirical neural network approach applied with data from the A-train constellation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Pawan; Joiner, Joanna; Vasilkov, Alexander; Bhartia, Pawan K.

    2016-07-01

    Estimates of top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux are essential for the understanding of Earth's energy budget and climate system. Clouds, aerosols, water vapor, and ozone (O3) are among the most important atmospheric agents impacting the Earth's shortwave (SW) radiation budget. There are several sensors in orbit that provide independent information related to these parameters. Having coincident information from these sensors is important for understanding their potential contributions. The A-train constellation of satellites provides a unique opportunity to analyze data from several of these sensors. In this paper, retrievals of cloud/aerosol parameters and total column ozone (TCO) from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) have been collocated with the Aqua Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) estimates of total reflected TOA outgoing SW flux (SWF). We use these data to develop a variety of neural networks that estimate TOA SWF globally over ocean and land using only OMI data and other ancillary information as inputs and CERES TOA SWF as the output for training purposes. OMI-estimated TOA SWF from the trained neural networks reproduces independent CERES data with high fidelity. The global mean daily TOA SWF calculated from OMI is consistently within ±1 % of CERES throughout the year 2007. Application of our neural network method to other sensors that provide similar retrieved parameters, both past and future, can produce similar estimates TOA SWF. For example, the well-calibrated Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) series could provide estimates of TOA SWF dating back to late 1978.

  20. Implementing Bayesian Vector Autoregressions Implementing Bayesian Vector Autoregressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard M. Todd

    1988-03-01

    Full Text Available Implementing Bayesian Vector Autoregressions This paper discusses how the Bayesian approach can be used to construct a type of multivariate forecasting model known as a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR. In doing so, we mainly explain Doan, Littermann, and Sims (1984 propositions on how to estimate a BVAR based on a certain family of prior probability distributions. indexed by a fairly small set of hyperparameters. There is also a discussion on how to specify a BVAR and set up a BVAR database. A 4-variable model is used to iliustrate the BVAR approach.

  1. A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Han; Yu, Qingzhao; Mercante, Donald E

    2017-03-02

    Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha-spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha-spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.

  2. Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

    2012-03-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.

  3. A Bayesian method for pulsar template generation

    CERN Document Server

    Imgrund, M; Kramer, M; Lesch, H

    2015-01-01

    Extracting Times of Arrival from pulsar radio signals depends on the knowledge of the pulsars pulse profile and how this template is generated. We examine pulsar template generation with Bayesian methods. We will contrast the classical generation mechanism of averaging intensity profiles with a new approach based on Bayesian inference. We introduce the Bayesian measurement model imposed and derive the algorithm to reconstruct a "statistical template" out of noisy data. The properties of these "statistical templates" are analysed with simulated and real measurement data from PSR B1133+16. We explain how to put this new form of template to use in analysing secondary parameters of interest and give various examples: We implement a nonlinear filter for determining ToAs of pulsars. Applying this method to data from PSR J1713+0747 we derive ToAs self consistently, meaning all epochs were timed and we used the same epochs for template generation. While the average template contains fluctuations and noise as unavoida...

  4. Autoregressive Integrated Adaptive Neural Networks Classifier for EEG-P300 Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demi Soetraprawata

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brain Computer Interface has a potency to be applied in mechatronics apparatus and vehicles in the future. Compared to the other techniques, EEG is the most preferred for BCI designs. In this paper, a new adaptive neural network classifier of different mental activities from EEG-based P300 signals is proposed. To overcome the over-training that is caused by noisy and non-stationary data, the EEG signals are filtered and extracted using autoregressive models before passed to the adaptive neural networks classifier. To test the improvement in the EEG classification performance with the proposed method, comparative experiments were conducted using Bayesian Linear Discriminant Analysis. The experiment results show that the all subjects achieve a classification accuracy of 100%.

  5. Analysis of Gumbel Model for Software Reliability Using Bayesian Paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raj Kumar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have illustrated the suitability of Gumbel Model for software reliability data. The model parameters are estimated using likelihood based inferential procedure: classical as well as Bayesian. The quasi Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and associated probability intervals. The Bayesian estimates of the parameters of Gumbel model are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC simulation method in OpenBUGS(established software for Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The R functions are developed to study the statistical properties, model validation and comparison tools of the model and the output analysis of MCMC samples generated from OpenBUGS. Details of applying MCMC to parameter estimation for the Gumbel model are elaborated and a real software reliability data set is considered to illustrate the methods of inference discussed in this paper.

  6. Applying the General Regression Neural Network to Ground Motion Prediction Equations of Induced Events in the Legnica-Głogów Copper District in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiszniowski, Jan

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents a study of the nonlinear estimation of the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) using neural networks. The general regression neural network (GRNN) was chosen for its high learning rate. A separate GRNN was tested as well as a GRNN in cascade connection with linear regression (LR). Measurements of induced seismicity in the Legnica-Głogów Copper District were used in this study. Various sets of input variables were tested. The basic variables used in every case were seismic energy and epicentral distance, while the additional variables were the location of the epicenter, the location of the seismic station, and the direction towards the epicenter. The GRNN improves the GMPE. The best results were obtained when the epicenter location was used as an additional input. The GRNN model was analysed for how it can improve the GMPE with respect to LR. The bootstrap re-sampling method was used for this purpose. It proved the statistical significance of the improvement of the GMPE. Additionally, this method allows the determination of smoothness parameters for the GRNN. Parameters derived through this method have better generalisation capabilities than the smoothness parameters estimated using the holdout method.

  7. Paraconsistents artificial neural networks applied to the study of mutational patterns of the F subtype of the viral strains of HIV-1 to antiretroviral therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, Paulo C C; Lopes, Helder F S; Alcalde, Rosana; Gonsalez, Cláudio R; Abe, Jair M; Lopez, Luis F

    2016-03-01

    The high variability of HIV-1 as well as the lack of efficient repair mechanisms during the stages of viral replication, contribute to the rapid emergence of HIV-1 strains resistant to antiretroviral drugs. The selective pressure exerted by the drug leads to fixation of mutations capable of imparting varying degrees of resistance. The presence of these mutations is one of the most important factors in the failure of therapeutic response to medications. Thus, it is of critical to understand the resistance patterns and mechanisms associated with them, allowing the choice of an appropriate therapeutic scheme, which considers the frequency, and other characteristics of mutations. Utilizing Paraconsistents Artificial Neural Networks, seated in Paraconsistent Annotated Logic Et which has the capability of measuring uncertainties and inconsistencies, we have achieved levels of agreement above 90% when compared to the methodology proposed with the current methodology used to classify HIV-1 subtypes. The results demonstrate that Paraconsistents Artificial Neural Networks can serve as a promising tool of analysis.

  8. Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)

  9. 用Bayesian正则化BP神经网络预测稀土永磁体性能%Property prediction of the (Nd2Fe14B/α-Fe) permanent magnet based on the Bayesian-regularization BP neural network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王向中; 查五生; 刘锦云; 储林华

    2009-01-01

    The (Nd2Fe14B/α-Fe) permanent magnetic property prediction model was bulit by taking magnetic particle preparation processes(spinning speed and annealing temperature) and alloy components as network input, the magnetic properties as output. For enhancing the model's ability of generalization it was trained by the way of weighted detecting method and clustering multiple based on the Bayesian-regularization BP neural network. The input data was analyzed the principal components for reducing its dimension.The results show that this model's generalization is better. The relative error between the measured value and predicted value of Br is confined to about 2% and that of Hcj、(BH)max to 5%. And the average of the relative error fluctuates within 1% in every prediction.%针对一般BP神经网络泛化能力差,在Bayesian正则化BP神经网络的基础上,运用加权检验、"表决网"等方法的思路训练网络,并通过主成分分析方法对输入数据进行降维,建立了磁粉制备工艺(淬速度和晶化退火温度)、合金成分与磁性能之间的BPNN(back propagation network)预测模型.结果表明:该模型泛化能力较高,预测的Br相对误差在2%左右、Hcj和(BH)max都在5%以内,且每次预测的相对误差平均值波动不超过1%.

  10. Bayesian Causal Induction

    CERN Document Server

    Ortega, Pedro A

    2011-01-01

    Discovering causal relationships is a hard task, often hindered by the need for intervention, and often requiring large amounts of data to resolve statistical uncertainty. However, humans quickly arrive at useful causal relationships. One possible reason is that humans use strong prior knowledge; and rather than encoding hard causal relationships, they encode beliefs over causal structures, allowing for sound generalization from the observations they obtain from directly acting in the world. In this work we propose a Bayesian approach to causal induction which allows modeling beliefs over multiple causal hypotheses and predicting the behavior of the world under causal interventions. We then illustrate how this method extracts causal information from data containing interventions and observations.

  11. Bayesian Rose Trees

    CERN Document Server

    Blundell, Charles; Heller, Katherine A

    2012-01-01

    Hierarchical structure is ubiquitous in data across many domains. There are many hier- archical clustering methods, frequently used by domain experts, which strive to discover this structure. However, most of these meth- ods limit discoverable hierarchies to those with binary branching structure. This lim- itation, while computationally convenient, is often undesirable. In this paper we ex- plore a Bayesian hierarchical clustering algo- rithm that can produce trees with arbitrary branching structure at each node, known as rose trees. We interpret these trees as mixtures over partitions of a data set, and use a computationally efficient, greedy ag- glomerative algorithm to find the rose trees which have high marginal likelihood given the data. Lastly, we perform experiments which demonstrate that rose trees are better models of data than the typical binary trees returned by other hierarchical clustering algorithms.

  12. Bayesian inference in geomagnetism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backus, George E.

    1988-01-01

    The inverse problem in empirical geomagnetic modeling is investigated, with critical examination of recently published studies. Particular attention is given to the use of Bayesian inference (BI) to select the damping parameter lambda in the uniqueness portion of the inverse problem. The mathematical bases of BI and stochastic inversion are explored, with consideration of bound-softening problems and resolution in linear Gaussian BI. The problem of estimating the radial magnetic field B(r) at the earth core-mantle boundary from surface and satellite measurements is then analyzed in detail, with specific attention to the selection of lambda in the studies of Gubbins (1983) and Gubbins and Bloxham (1985). It is argued that the selection method is inappropriate and leads to lambda values much larger than those that would result if a reasonable bound on the heat flow at the CMB were assumed.

  13. Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

  14. Bayesian inversion of free oscillations for Earth's radial (an)elastic structure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Wit, R. W L; Käufl, P.J.; Valentine, A. P.; Trampert, J.

    2014-01-01

    We perform a Bayesian inversion of degree-zero spheroidal mode splitting function measurements for radial (1-D) Earth structure, in terms of the Voigt averages of P-wave (VP) and S-wave (VS) velocities, density, bulk and shear attenuation, using neural networks. The method is flexible and allows us

  15. Bayesian inference for OPC modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burbine, Andrew; Sturtevant, John; Fryer, David; Smith, Bruce W.

    2016-03-01

    The use of optical proximity correction (OPC) demands increasingly accurate models of the photolithographic process. Model building and inference techniques in the data science community have seen great strides in the past two decades which make better use of available information. This paper aims to demonstrate the predictive power of Bayesian inference as a method for parameter selection in lithographic models by quantifying the uncertainty associated with model inputs and wafer data. Specifically, the method combines the model builder's prior information about each modelling assumption with the maximization of each observation's likelihood as a Student's t-distributed random variable. Through the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a model's parameter space is explored to find the most credible parameter values. During parameter exploration, the parameters' posterior distributions are generated by applying Bayes' rule, using a likelihood function and the a priori knowledge supplied. The MCMC algorithm used, an affine invariant ensemble sampler (AIES), is implemented by initializing many walkers which semiindependently explore the space. The convergence of these walkers to global maxima of the likelihood volume determine the parameter values' highest density intervals (HDI) to reveal champion models. We show that this method of parameter selection provides insights into the data that traditional methods do not and outline continued experiments to vet the method.

  16. PAC-Bayesian Analysis of Martingales and Multiarmed Bandits

    CERN Document Server

    Seldin, Yevgeny; Shawe-Taylor, John; Peters, Jan; Auer, Peter

    2011-01-01

    We present two alternative ways to apply PAC-Bayesian analysis to sequences of dependent random variables. The first is based on a new lemma that enables to bound expectations of convex functions of certain dependent random variables by expectations of the same functions of independent Bernoulli random variables. This lemma provides an alternative tool to Hoeffding-Azuma inequality to bound concentration of martingale values. Our second approach is based on integration of Hoeffding-Azuma inequality with PAC-Bayesian analysis. We also introduce a way to apply PAC-Bayesian analysis in situation of limited feedback. We combine the new tools to derive PAC-Bayesian generalization and regret bounds for the multiarmed bandit problem. Although our regret bound is not yet as tight as state-of-the-art regret bounds based on other well-established techniques, our results significantly expand the range of potential applications of PAC-Bayesian analysis and introduce a new analysis tool to reinforcement learning and many ...

  17. A Neural Network Approach for GMA Butt Joint Welding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Kim Hardam; Sørensen, Torben

    2003-01-01

    squares has been used with the back-propagation algorithm for training the network, while a Bayesian regularization technique has been successfully applied for minimizing the risk of inexpedient over-training. Finally, a predictive closed-loop control strategy based on a so-called single-neuron self......This paper describes the application of the neural network technology for gas metal arc welding (GMAW) control. A system has been developed for modeling and online adjustment of welding parameters, appropriate to guarantee a certain degree of quality in the field of butt joint welding with full...... penetration, when the gap width is varying during the welding process. The process modeling to facilitate the mapping from joint geometry and reference weld quality to significant welding parameters has been based on a multi-layer feed-forward network. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for non-linear least...

  18. Irregular-Time Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Ramati, Michael

    2012-01-01

    In many fields observations are performed irregularly along time, due to either measurement limitations or lack of a constant immanent rate. While discrete-time Markov models (as Dynamic Bayesian Networks) introduce either inefficient computation or an information loss to reasoning about such processes, continuous-time Markov models assume either a discrete state space (as Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks), or a flat continuous state space (as stochastic dif- ferential equations). To address these problems, we present a new modeling class called Irregular-Time Bayesian Networks (ITBNs), generalizing Dynamic Bayesian Networks, allowing substantially more compact representations, and increasing the expressivity of the temporal dynamics. In addition, a globally optimal solution is guaranteed when learning temporal systems, provided that they are fully observed at the same irregularly spaced time-points, and a semiparametric subclass of ITBNs is introduced to allow further adaptation to the irregular nature of t...

  19. Neural networks and statistical learning

    CERN Document Server

    Du, Ke-Lin

    2014-01-01

    Providing a broad but in-depth introduction to neural network and machine learning in a statistical framework, this book provides a single, comprehensive resource for study and further research. All the major popular neural network models and statistical learning approaches are covered with examples and exercises in every chapter to develop a practical working understanding of the content. Each of the twenty-five chapters includes state-of-the-art descriptions and important research results on the respective topics. The broad coverage includes the multilayer perceptron, the Hopfield network, associative memory models, clustering models and algorithms, the radial basis function network, recurrent neural networks, principal component analysis, nonnegative matrix factorization, independent component analysis, discriminant analysis, support vector machines, kernel methods, reinforcement learning, probabilistic and Bayesian networks, data fusion and ensemble learning, fuzzy sets and logic, neurofuzzy models, hardw...

  20. Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

  1. Bayesian Methods for Statistical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Puza, Borek

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian methods for statistical analysis is a book on statistical methods for analysing a wide variety of data. The book consists of 12 chapters, starting with basic concepts and covering numerous topics, including Bayesian estimation, decision theory, prediction, hypothesis testing, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, finite population inference, biased sampling and nonignorable nonresponse. The book contains many exercises, all with worked solutions, including complete c...

  2. Designing neural networks that process mean values of random variables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barber, Michael J. [AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Innovation Systems Department, 1220 Vienna (Austria); Clark, John W. [Department of Physics and McDonnell Center for the Space Sciences, Washington University, St. Louis, MO 63130 (United States); Centro de Ciências Matemáticas, Universidade de Madeira, 9000-390 Funchal (Portugal)

    2014-06-13

    We develop a class of neural networks derived from probabilistic models posed in the form of Bayesian networks. Making biologically and technically plausible assumptions about the nature of the probabilistic models to be represented in the networks, we derive neural networks exhibiting standard dynamics that require no training to determine the synaptic weights, that perform accurate calculation of the mean values of the relevant random variables, that can pool multiple sources of evidence, and that deal appropriately with ambivalent, inconsistent, or contradictory evidence. - Highlights: • High-level neural computations are specified by Bayesian belief networks of random variables. • Probability densities of random variables are encoded in activities of populations of neurons. • Top-down algorithm generates specific neural network implementation of given computation. • Resulting “neural belief networks” process mean values of random variables. • Such networks pool multiple sources of evidence and deal properly with inconsistent evidence.

  3. Spatial correlation in Bayesian logistic regression with misclassification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bihrmann, Kristine; Toft, Nils; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2014-01-01

    Standard logistic regression assumes that the outcome is measured perfectly. In practice, this is often not the case, which could lead to biased estimates if not accounted for. This study presents Bayesian logistic regression with adjustment for misclassification of the outcome applied to data...

  4. Rate-optimal Bayesian intensity smoothing for inhomogeneous Poisson processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Belitser; P. Serra; H. van Zanten

    2015-01-01

    We apply nonparametric Bayesian methods to study the problem of estimating the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process. To motivate our results we start by analyzing count data coming from a call center which we model as a Poisson process. This analysis is carried out using a certain

  5. A Study on Associative Neural Memories

    OpenAIRE

    B.D.C.N.Prasad; P. E. S. N. Krishna Prasad; Sagar Yeruva; P Sita Rama Murty

    2011-01-01

    Memory plays a major role in Artificial Neural Networks. Without memory, Neural Network can not be learned itself. One of the primary concepts of memory in neural networks is Associative neural memories. A survey has been made on associative neural memories such as Simple associative memories (SAM), Dynamic associative memories (DAM), Bidirectional Associative memories (BAM), Hopfield memories, Context Sensitive Auto-associative memories (CSAM) and so on. These memories can be applied in vari...

  6. Bayesian Inference in the Modern Design of Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLoach, Richard

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an elementary tutorial overview of Bayesian inference and its potential for application in aerospace experimentation in general and wind tunnel testing in particular. Bayes Theorem is reviewed and examples are provided to illustrate how it can be applied to objectively revise prior knowledge by incorporating insights subsequently obtained from additional observations, resulting in new (posterior) knowledge that combines information from both sources. A logical merger of Bayesian methods and certain aspects of Response Surface Modeling is explored. Specific applications to wind tunnel testing, computational code validation, and instrumentation calibration are discussed.

  7. Bayesian probabilistic modeling for damage assessment in a bolted frame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Colin; Todd, Michael

    2012-04-01

    This paper presents the development of a Bayesian framework for optimizing the design of a structural health monitoring (SHM) system. Statistical damage detection techniques are applied to a geometrically-complex, three-story structure with bolted joints. A sparse network of PZT sensor-actuators is bonded to the structure, using ultrasonic guided waves in both pulse-echo and pitch-catch modes to inspect the structure. Receiver operating characteristics are used to quantify the performance of multiple features (or detectors). The detection rate of the system is compared across different types and levels of damage. A Bayesian cost model is implemented to determine the best performing network.

  8. Dynamic Batch Bayesian Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Azimi, Javad; Fern, Xiaoli

    2011-01-01

    Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms try to optimize an unknown function that is expensive to evaluate using minimum number of evaluations/experiments. Most of the proposed algorithms in BO are sequential, where only one experiment is selected at each iteration. This method can be time inefficient when each experiment takes a long time and more than one experiment can be ran concurrently. On the other hand, requesting a fix-sized batch of experiments at each iteration causes performance inefficiency in BO compared to the sequential policies. In this paper, we present an algorithm that asks a batch of experiments at each time step t where the batch size p_t is dynamically determined in each step. Our algorithm is based on the observation that the sequence of experiments selected by the sequential policy can sometimes be almost independent from each other. Our algorithm identifies such scenarios and request those experiments at the same time without degrading the performance. We evaluate our proposed method us...

  9. Artificial neural networks applied to flow prediction scenarios in Tomebamba River - Paute watershed, for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisneros, Felipe; Veintimilla, Jaime

    2013-04-01

    The main aim of this research is to create a model of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) that allows predicting the flow in Tomebamba River both, at real time and in a certain day of year. As inputs we are using information of rainfall and flow of the stations along of the river. This information is organized in scenarios and each scenario is prepared to a specific area. The information is acquired from the hydrological stations placed in the watershed using an electronic system developed at real time and it supports any kind or brands of this type of sensors. The prediction works very good three days in advance This research includes two ANN models: Back propagation and a hybrid model between back propagation and OWO-HWO. These last two models have been tested in a preliminary research. To validate the results we are using some error indicators such as: MSE, RMSE, EF, CD and BIAS. The results of this research reached high levels of reliability and the level of error are minimal. These predictions are useful for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

  10. Ocean wave forecasting using recurrent neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper describes an artificial neural network, namely recurrent neural network with rprop update algorithm and is applied for wave forecasting. Measured ocean waves off...

  11. The Bayesian statistical decision theory applied to the optimization of generating set maintenance; La theorie de la decision statistique bayesienne appliquee a l`optimisation de la maintenance des groupes electrogenes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.

    1994-11-01

    The difficulty in RCM methodology is the allocation of a new periodicity of preventive maintenance on one equipment when a critical failure has been identified: until now this new allocation has been based on the engineer`s judgment, and one must wait for a full cycle of feedback experience before to validate it. Statistical decision theory could be a more rational alternative for the optimization of preventive maintenance periodicity. This methodology has been applied to inspection and maintenance optimization of cylinders of diesel generator engines of 900 MW nuclear plants, and has shown that previous preventive maintenance periodicity can be extended. (authors). 8 refs., 5 figs.

  12. Fast Bayesian inference of optical trap stiffness and particle diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bera, Sudipta; Paul, Shuvojit; Singh, Rajesh; Ghosh, Dipanjan; Kundu, Avijit; Banerjee, Ayan; Adhikari, R.

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian inference provides a principled way of estimating the parameters of a stochastic process that is observed discretely in time. The overdamped Brownian motion of a particle confined in an optical trap is generally modelled by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and can be observed directly in experiment. Here we present Bayesian methods for inferring the parameters of this process, the trap stiffness and the particle diffusion coefficient, that use exact likelihoods and sufficient statistics to arrive at simple expressions for the maximum a posteriori estimates. This obviates the need for Monte Carlo sampling and yields methods that are both fast and accurate. We apply these to experimental data and demonstrate their advantage over commonly used non-Bayesian fitting methods.

  13. Bayesian population finding with biomarkers in a randomized clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Satoshi; Müller, Peter

    2017-03-03

    The identification of good predictive biomarkers allows investigators to optimize the target population for a new treatment. We propose a novel utility-based Bayesian population finding (BaPoFi) method to analyze data from a randomized clinical trial with the aim of finding a sensitive patient population. Our approach is based on casting the population finding process as a formal decision problem together with a flexible probability model, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), to summarize observed data. The proposed method evaluates enhanced treatment effects in patient subpopulations based on counter-factual modeling of responses to new treatment and control for each patient. In extensive simulation studies, we examine the operating characteristics of the proposed method. We compare with a Bayesian regression-based method that implements shrinkage estimates of subgroup-specific treatment effects. For illustration, we apply the proposed method to data from a randomized clinical trial.

  14. A COMPOUND POISSON MODEL FOR LEARNING DISCRETE BAYESIAN NETWORKS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Abdelaziz GHRIBI; Afif MASMOUDI

    2013-01-01

    We introduce here the concept of Bayesian networks, in compound Poisson model, which provides a graphical modeling framework that encodes the joint probability distribution for a set of random variables within a directed acyclic graph. We suggest an approach proposal which offers a new mixed implicit estimator. We show that the implicit approach applied in compound Poisson model is very attractive for its ability to understand data and does not require any prior information. A comparative study between learned estimates given by implicit and by standard Bayesian approaches is established. Under some conditions and based on minimal squared error calculations, we show that the mixed implicit estimator is better than the standard Bayesian and the maximum likelihood estimators. We illustrate our approach by considering a simulation study in the context of mobile communication networks.

  15. Fast Bayesian inference of optical trap stiffness and particle diffusion

    CERN Document Server

    Bera, Sudipta; Singh, Rajesh; Ghosh, Dipanjan; Kundu, Avijit; Banerjee, Ayan; Adhikari, R

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian inference provides a principled way of estimating the parameters of a stochastic process that is observed discretely in time. The overdamped Brownian motion of a particle confined in an optical trap is generally modelled by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and can be observed directly in experiment. Here we present Bayesian methods for inferring the parameters of this process, the trap stiffness and the particle diffusion coefficient, that use exact likelihoods and sufficient statistics to arrive at simple expressions for the maximum a posteriori estimates. This obviates the need for Monte Carlo sampling and yields methods that are both fast and accurate. We apply these to experimental data and demonstrate their advantage over commonly used non-Bayesian fitting methods.

  16. The subjectivity of scientists and the Bayesian approach

    CERN Document Server

    Press, James S

    2016-01-01

    "Press and Tanur argue that subjectivity has not only played a significant role in the advancement of science but that science will advance more rapidly if the modern methods of Bayesian statistical analysis replace some of the more classical twentieth-century methods." — SciTech Book News. "An insightful work." ― Choice. "Compilation of interesting popular problems … this book is fascinating." — Short Book Reviews, International Statistical Institute. Subjectivity ― including intuition, hunches, and personal beliefs ― has played a key role in scientific discovery. This intriguing book illustrates subjective influences on scientific progress with historical accounts and biographical sketches of more than a dozen luminaries, including Aristotle, Galileo, Newton, Darwin, Pasteur, Freud, Einstein, Margaret Mead, and others. The treatment also offers a detailed examination of the modern Bayesian approach to data analysis, with references to the Bayesian theoretical and applied literature. Suitable for...

  17. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T.;

    2013-01-01

    In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson......-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks...... in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models.Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis...

  18. Bayesian cloud detection for MERIS, AATSR, and their combination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hollstein

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A broad range of different of Bayesian cloud detection schemes is applied to measurements from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS, the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR, and their combination. The cloud masks were designed to be numerically efficient and suited for the processing of large amounts of data. Results from the classical and naive approach to Bayesian cloud masking are discussed for MERIS and AATSR as well as for their combination. A sensitivity study on the resolution of multidimensional histograms, which were post-processed by Gaussian smoothing, shows how theoretically insufficient amounts of truth data can be used to set up accurate classical Bayesian cloud masks. Sets of exploited features from single and derived channels are numerically optimized and results for naive and classical Bayesian cloud masks are presented. The application of the Bayesian approach is discussed in terms of reproducing existing algorithms, enhancing existing algorithms, increasing the robustness of existing algorithms, and on setting up new classification schemes based on manually classified scenes.

  19. Algorithms and Complexity Results for Exact Bayesian Structure Learning

    CERN Document Server

    Ordyniak, Sebastian

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian structure learning is the NP-hard problem of discovering a Bayesian network that optimally represents a given set of training data. In this paper we study the computational worst-case complexity of exact Bayesian structure learning under graph theoretic restrictions on the super-structure. The super-structure (a concept introduced by Perrier, Imoto, and Miyano, JMLR 2008) is an undirected graph that contains as subgraphs the skeletons of solution networks. Our results apply to several variants of score-based Bayesian structure learning where the score of a network decomposes into local scores of its nodes. Results: We show that exact Bayesian structure learning can be carried out in non-uniform polynomial time if the super-structure has bounded treewidth and in linear time if in addition the super-structure has bounded maximum degree. We complement this with a number of hardness results. We show that both restrictions (treewidth and degree) are essential and cannot be dropped without loosing uniform ...

  20. A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

    1996-01-01

    To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

  1. A bootstrapped neural network model applied to prediction of the biodegradation rate of reactive Black 5 dye - doi: 10.4025/actascitechnol.v35i3.16210

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleber Rogério Moreira Prado

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Current essay forwards a biodegradation model of a dye, used in the textile industry, based on a neural network propped by bootstrap remodeling. Bootstrapped neural network is set to generate estimates that are close to results obtained in an intrinsic experience in which a chemical process is applied. Pseudomonas oleovorans was used in the biodegradation of reactive Black 5. Results show a brief comparison between the information estimated by the proposed approach and the experimental data, with a coefficient of correlation between real and predicted values for a more than 0.99 biodegradation rate. Dye concentration and the solution’s pH failed to interfere in biodegradation index rates. A value above 90% of dye biodegradation was achieved between 1.000 and 1.841 mL 10 mL-1 of microorganism concentration and between 1.000 and 2.000 g 100 mL-1 of glucose concentration within the experimental conditions under analysis.   

  2. 一种神经网络方法在机械手控制中的应用%A neural network method applying to robot manipulator control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨国军; 崔平远

    2000-01-01

    The multilayer forward neural networks are used to establish theinverse kinematic models for robot manipulator. An improved genetic algorithm is presented to update the weights of the networks. In the improved genetic algorithm, the crossover probability is adapted by the fitness values of the solutions and the mutation probability is adjusted by the iteration times. The motivation of this approach is to overcome the shortcomings of traditional back propagation algorithm, such as the low precision of the solutions, the slow search speed and easy convergence to the local minimum points. Simulations show that the proposed method improves considerably the inverse kinematic solutions for robot manipulator and guarantees a rapid global convergence.%采用多层前向神经网络建立机械手逆运动学模型。提出了一种改进遗传算法来学习网络的权系数,其交叉概率根据解的适应度来自适应调整,变异概率根据迭代次数来动态调整。这样可以有效地克服传统的反向传播算法求解精度低、搜索速度慢、易陷于局部极小的缺点。仿真结果表明,所提方法大大提高了机械手逆运动学解的精度,确保快速达到全局收敛。

  3. Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutter, Carolyn M; Miglioretti, Diana L; Savarino, James E

    2009-12-01

    Microsimulation models that describe disease processes synthesize information from multiple sources and can be used to estimate the effects of screening and treatment on cancer incidence and mortality at a population level. These models are characterized by simulation of individual event histories for an idealized population of interest. Microsimulation models are complex and invariably include parameters that are not well informed by existing data. Therefore, a key component of model development is the choice of parameter values. Microsimulation model parameter values are selected to reproduce expected or known results though the process of model calibration. Calibration may be done by perturbing model parameters one at a time or by using a search algorithm. As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian method to calibrate microsimulation models that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that this approach converges to the target distribution and use a simulation study to demonstrate its finite-sample performance. Although computationally intensive, this approach has several advantages over previously proposed methods, including the use of statistical criteria to select parameter values, simultaneous calibration of multiple parameters to multiple data sources, incorporation of information via prior distributions, description of parameter identifiability, and the ability to obtain interval estimates of model parameters. We develop a microsimulation model for colorectal cancer and use our proposed method to calibrate model parameters. The microsimulation model provides a good fit to the calibration data. We find evidence that some parameters are identified primarily through prior distributions. Our results underscore the need to incorporate multiple sources of variability (i.e., due to calibration data, unknown parameters, and estimated parameters and predicted values) when calibrating and applying microsimulation models.

  4. Bayesian seismic AVO inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buland, Arild

    2002-07-01

    A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S

  5. Maximum margin Bayesian network classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael; Tschiatschek, Sebastian

    2012-03-01

    We present a maximum margin parameter learning algorithm for Bayesian network classifiers using a conjugate gradient (CG) method for optimization. In contrast to previous approaches, we maintain the normalization constraints on the parameters of the Bayesian network during optimization, i.e., the probabilistic interpretation of the model is not lost. This enables us to handle missing features in discriminatively optimized Bayesian networks. In experiments, we compare the classification performance of maximum margin parameter learning to conditional likelihood and maximum likelihood learning approaches. Discriminative parameter learning significantly outperforms generative maximum likelihood estimation for naive Bayes and tree augmented naive Bayes structures on all considered data sets. Furthermore, maximizing the margin dominates the conditional likelihood approach in terms of classification performance in most cases. We provide results for a recently proposed maximum margin optimization approach based on convex relaxation. While the classification results are highly similar, our CG-based optimization is computationally up to orders of magnitude faster. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve classification performance comparable to support vector machines (SVMs) using fewer parameters. Moreover, we show that unanticipated missing feature values during classification can be easily processed by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  6. Approximate Bayesian computation with functional statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soubeyrand, Samuel; Carpentier, Florence; Guiton, François; Klein, Etienne K

    2013-03-26

    Functional statistics are commonly used to characterize spatial patterns in general and spatial genetic structures in population genetics in particular. Such functional statistics also enable the estimation of parameters of spatially explicit (and genetic) models. Recently, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has been proposed to estimate model parameters from functional statistics. However, applying ABC with functional statistics may be cumbersome because of the high dimension of the set of statistics and the dependences among them. To tackle this difficulty, we propose an ABC procedure which relies on an optimized weighted distance between observed and simulated functional statistics. We applied this procedure to a simple step model, a spatial point process characterized by its pair correlation function and a pollen dispersal model characterized by genetic differentiation as a function of distance. These applications showed how the optimized weighted distance improved estimation accuracy. In the discussion, we consider the application of the proposed ABC procedure to functional statistics characterizing non-spatial processes.

  7. Bayesian Methods and Universal Darwinism

    CERN Document Server

    Campbell, John

    2010-01-01

    Bayesian methods since the time of Laplace have been understood by their practitioners as closely aligned to the scientific method. Indeed a recent champion of Bayesian methods, E. T. Jaynes, titled his textbook on the subject Probability Theory: the Logic of Science. Many philosophers of science including Karl Popper and Donald Campbell have interpreted the evolution of Science as a Darwinian process consisting of a 'copy with selective retention' algorithm abstracted from Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Arguments are presented for an isomorphism between Bayesian Methods and Darwinian processes. Universal Darwinism, as the term has been developed by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Susan Blackmore, is the collection of scientific theories which explain the creation and evolution of their subject matter as due to the operation of Darwinian processes. These subject matters span the fields of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences. The principle of Maximum Entropy states that system...

  8. Attention in a bayesian framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whiteley, Louise Emma; Sahani, Maneesh

    2012-01-01

    The behavioral phenomena of sensory attention are thought to reflect the allocation of a limited processing resource, but there is little consensus on the nature of the resource or why it should be limited. Here we argue that a fundamental bottleneck emerges naturally within Bayesian models...... of perception, and use this observation to frame a new computational account of the need for, and action of, attention - unifying diverse attentional phenomena in a way that goes beyond previous inferential, probabilistic and Bayesian models. Attentional effects are most evident in cluttered environments......, and include both selective phenomena, where attention is invoked by cues that point to particular stimuli, and integrative phenomena, where attention is invoked dynamically by endogenous processing. However, most previous Bayesian accounts of attention have focused on describing relatively simple experimental...

  9. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  10. Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

  11. Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Guo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

  12. Multi-source Fuzzy Information Fusion Method Based on Bayesian Optimal Classifier%基于贝叶斯最优分类器的多源模糊信息融合方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    苏宏升

    2008-01-01

    To make conventional Bayesian optimal classifier possess the abilities of disposing fuzzy information and realizing the automation of reasoning process, a new Bayesian optimal classifier is proposed with fuzzy information embedded. It can not only dispose fuzzy information effectively, but also retain learning properties of Bayesian optimal classifier. In addition, according to the evolution of fuzzy set theory, vague set is also imbedded into it to generate vague Bayesian optimal classifier. It can simultaneously simulate the twofold characteristics of fuzzy information from the positive and reverse directions. Further, a set pair Bayesian optimal classifier is also proposed considering the threefold characteristics of fuzzy information from the positive, reverse, and indeterminate sides. In the end, a knowledge-based artificial neural network (KBANN) is presented to realize automatic reasoning of Bayesian optimal classifier. It not only reduces the computational cost of Bayesian optimal classifier but also improves its classification learning quality.

  13. Approximate Inference for Time-Varying Interactions and Macroscopic Dynamics of Neural Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obermayer, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    The models in statistical physics such as an Ising model offer a convenient way to characterize stationary activity of neural populations. Such stationary activity of neurons may be expected for recordings from in vitro slices or anesthetized animals. However, modeling activity of cortical circuitries of awake animals has been more challenging because both spike-rates and interactions can change according to sensory stimulation, behavior, or an internal state of the brain. Previous approaches modeling the dynamics of neural interactions suffer from computational cost; therefore, its application was limited to only a dozen neurons. Here by introducing multiple analytic approximation methods to a state-space model of neural population activity, we make it possible to estimate dynamic pairwise interactions of up to 60 neurons. More specifically, we applied the pseudolikelihood approximation to the state-space model, and combined it with the Bethe or TAP mean-field approximation to make the sequential Bayesian estimation of the model parameters possible. The large-scale analysis allows us to investigate dynamics of macroscopic properties of neural circuitries underlying stimulus processing and behavior. We show that the model accurately estimates dynamics of network properties such as sparseness, entropy, and heat capacity by simulated data, and demonstrate utilities of these measures by analyzing activity of monkey V4 neurons as well as a simulated balanced network of spiking neurons. PMID:28095421

  14. A comparison of back propagation and generalized regression neural networks performance in neutron spectrometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz R, J. M.; Martinez B, M. R.; Solis S, L. O.; Castaneda M, R. [Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Unidad Academica de Ingenieria Electrica, Av. Ramon Lopez Velarde 801, Col. Centro, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico); Vega C, H. R., E-mail: morvymm@yahoo.com.mx [Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Unidad Academica de Estudios Nucleares, Cipres No. 10, Fracc. La Penuela, 98068 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico)

    2015-10-15

    The process of unfolding the neutron energy spectrum has been the subject of research for many years. Monte Carlo, iterative methods, the bayesian theory, the principle of maximum entropy are some of the methods used. The drawbacks associated with traditional unfolding procedures have motivated the need of complementary approaches. Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN), have been applied with success in the neutron spectrometry and dosimetry domains, however, the structure and the learning parameters are factors that contribute in a significant way in the networks performance. In artificial neural network domain, Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the simplest neural networks in term of network architecture and learning algorithm. The learning is instantaneous, which mean require no time for training. Opposite to BPNN, a GRNN would be formed instantly with just a 1-pass training with the development data. In the network development phase, the only hurdle is to tune the hyper parameter, which is known as sigma, governing the smoothness of the network. The aim of this work was to compare the performance of BPNN and GRNN in the solution of the neutron spectrometry problem. From results obtained can be observed that despite the very similar results, GRNN performs better than BPNN. (Author)

  15. Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elise Payzan-LeNestour

    Full Text Available Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.

  16. Perception, illusions and Bayesian inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nour, Matthew M; Nour, Joseph M

    2015-01-01

    Descriptive psychopathology makes a distinction between veridical perception and illusory perception. In both cases a perception is tied to a sensory stimulus, but in illusions the perception is of a false object. This article re-examines this distinction in light of new work in theoretical and computational neurobiology, which views all perception as a form of Bayesian statistical inference that combines sensory signals with prior expectations. Bayesian perceptual inference can solve the 'inverse optics' problem of veridical perception and provides a biologically plausible account of a number of illusory phenomena, suggesting that veridical and illusory perceptions are generated by precisely the same inferential mechanisms.

  17. Bayesian test and Kuhn's paradigm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Xiaoping

    2006-01-01

    Kuhn's theory of paradigm reveals a pattern of scientific progress,in which normal science alternates with scientific revolution.But Kuhn underrated too much the function of scientific test in his pattern,because he focuses all his attention on the hypothetico-deductive schema instead of Bayesian schema.This paper employs Bayesian schema to re-examine Kuhn's theory of paradigm,to uncover its logical and rational components,and to illustrate the tensional structure of logic and belief,rationality and irrationality,in the process of scientific revolution.

  18. 3D Bayesian contextual classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    2000-01-01

    We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....

  19. A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Test Equating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

    2009-01-01

    A Bayesian nonparametric model is introduced for score equating. It is applicable to all major equating designs, and has advantages over previous equating models. Unlike the previous models, the Bayesian model accounts for positive dependence between distributions of scores from two tests. The Bayesian model and the previous equating models are…

  20. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  1. Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.

    2004-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision sup

  2. Analysis of COSIMA spectra: Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. J. Lehto

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We describe the use of Bayesian analysis methods applied to TOF-SIMS spectra. The method finds the probability density functions of measured line parameters (number of lines, and their widths, peak amplitudes, integrated amplitudes, positions in mass intervals over the whole spectrum. We discuss the results we can expect from this analysis. We discuss the effects the instrument dead time causes in the COSIMA TOF SIMS. We address this issue in a new way. The derived line parameters can be used to further calibrate the mass scaling of TOF-SIMS and to feed the results into other analysis methods such as multivariate analyses of spectra. We intend to use the method in two ways, first as a comprehensive tool to perform quantitative analysis of spectra, and second as a fast tool for studying interesting targets for obtaining additional TOF-SIMS measurements of the sample, a property unique for COSIMA. Finally, we point out that the Bayesian method can be thought as a means to solve inverse problems but with forward calculations only.

  3. Bayesian analysis of multiple direct detection experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arina, Chiara

    2014-12-01

    Bayesian methods offer a coherent and efficient framework for implementing uncertainties into induction problems. In this article, we review how this approach applies to the analysis of dark matter direct detection experiments. In particular we discuss the exclusion limit of XENON100 and the debated hints of detection under the hypothesis of a WIMP signal. Within parameter inference, marginalizing consistently over uncertainties to extract robust posterior probability distributions, we find that the claimed tension between XENON100 and the other experiments can be partially alleviated in isospin violating scenario, while elastic scattering model appears to be compatible with the frequentist statistical approach. We then move to model comparison, for which Bayesian methods are particularly well suited. Firstly, we investigate the annual modulation seen in CoGeNT data, finding that there is weak evidence for a modulation. Modulation models due to other physics compare unfavorably with the WIMP models, paying the price for their excessive complexity. Secondly, we confront several coherent scattering models to determine the current best physical scenario compatible with the experimental hints. We find that exothermic and inelastic dark matter are moderatly disfavored against the elastic scenario, while the isospin violating model has a similar evidence. Lastly the Bayes' factor gives inconclusive evidence for an incompatibility between the data sets of XENON100 and the hints of detection. The same question assessed with goodness of fit would indicate a 2 σ discrepancy. This suggests that more data are therefore needed to settle this question.

  4. MERGING DIGITAL SURFACE MODELS IMPLEMENTING BAYESIAN APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeq

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades. It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  5. Merging Digital Surface Models Implementing Bayesian Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeq, H.; Drummond, J.; Li, Z.

    2016-06-01

    In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades). It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  6. Bayesian stable isotope mixing models

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this paper we review recent advances in Stable Isotope Mixing Models (SIMMs) and place them into an over-arching Bayesian statistical framework which allows for several useful extensions. SIMMs are used to quantify the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixtur...

  7. Naive Bayesian for Email Filtering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a method of email filter based on Naive Bayesian theory that can effectively filter junk mail and illegal mail. Furthermore, the keys of implementation are discussed in detail. The filtering model is obtained from training set of email. The filtering can be done without the users specification of filtering rules.

  8. Bayesian analysis of binary sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torney, David C.

    2005-03-01

    This manuscript details Bayesian methodology for "learning by example", with binary n-sequences encoding the objects under consideration. Priors prove influential; conformable priors are described. Laplace approximation of Bayes integrals yields posterior likelihoods for all n-sequences. This involves the optimization of a definite function over a convex domain--efficiently effectuated by the sequential application of the quadratic program.

  9. Bayesian NL interpretation and learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeevat, H.

    2011-01-01

    Everyday natural language communication is normally successful, even though contemporary computational linguistics has shown that NL is characterised by very high degree of ambiguity and the results of stochastic methods are not good enough to explain the high success rate. Bayesian natural language

  10. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...

  11. Bayesian Classification of Image Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic dimensi...

  12. 3-D contextual Bayesian classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    In this paper we will consider extensions of a series of Bayesian 2-D contextual classification pocedures proposed by Owen (1984) Hjort & Mohn (1984) and Welch & Salter (1971) and Haslett (1985) to 3 spatial dimensions. It is evident that compared to classical pixelwise classification further...

  13. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

  14. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  15. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda

    2006-01-01

    configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for the salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  16. Bayesian Evidence and Model Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Knuth, Kevin H; Malakar, Nabin K; Mubeen, Asim M; Placek, Ben

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we review the concept of the Bayesian evidence and its application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical techniques. Application to several practical examples within the context of signal processing are discussed.

  17. Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about

  18. A Fuzzy Quantum Neural Network and Its Application in Pattern Recognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MIAOFuyou; XIONGYan; CHENHuanhuan; WANGXingfu

    2005-01-01

    This paper proposes a fuzzy quantum neural network model combining quantum neural network and fuzzy logic, which applies the fuzzy logic to design the collapse rules of the quantum neural network, and solves the character recognition problem. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show that fuzzy quantum neural network improves recognizing veracity than the traditional neural network and quantum neural network.

  19. Bayesian Analysis Made Simple An Excel GUI for WinBUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Woodward, Philip

    2011-01-01

    From simple NLMs to complex GLMMs, this book describes how to use the GUI for WinBUGS - BugsXLA - an Excel add-in written by the author that allows a range of Bayesian models to be easily specified. With case studies throughout, the text shows how to routinely apply even the more complex aspects of model specification, such as GLMMs, outlier robust models, random effects Emax models, auto-regressive errors, and Bayesian variable selection. It provides brief, up-to-date discussions of current issues in the practical application of Bayesian methods. The author also explains how to obtain free so

  20. Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caspar Mathias Goeke

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

  1. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  2. Multigradient for Neural Networks for Equalizers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chulhee Lee

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, a new training algorithm, multigradient, has been published for neural networks and it is reported that the multigradient outperforms the backpropagation when neural networks are used as a classifier. When neural networks are used as an equalizer in communications, they can be viewed as a classifier. In this paper, we apply the multigradient algorithm to train the neural networks that are used as equalizers. Experiments show that the neural networks trained using the multigradient noticeably outperforms the neural networks trained by the backpropagation.

  3. SOMBI: Bayesian identification of parameter relations in unstructured cosmological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Philipp; Jasche, Jens; Enßlin, Torsten A.

    2016-11-01

    This work describes the implementation and application of a correlation determination method based on self organizing maps and Bayesian inference (SOMBI). SOMBI aims to automatically identify relations between different observed parameters in unstructured cosmological or astrophysical surveys by automatically identifying data clusters in high-dimensional datasets via the self organizing map neural network algorithm. Parameter relations are then revealed by means of a Bayesian inference within respective identified data clusters. Specifically such relations are assumed to be parametrized as a polynomial of unknown order. The Bayesian approach results in a posterior probability distribution function for respective polynomial coefficients. To decide which polynomial order suffices to describe correlation structures in data, we include a method for model selection, the Bayesian information criterion, to the analysis. The performance of the SOMBI algorithm is tested with mock data. As illustration we also provide applications of our method to cosmological data. In particular, we present results of a correlation analysis between galaxy and active galactic nucleus (AGN) properties provided by the SDSS catalog with the cosmic large-scale-structure (LSS). The results indicate that the combined galaxy and LSS dataset indeed is clustered into several sub-samples of data with different average properties (for example different stellar masses or web-type classifications). The majority of data clusters appear to have a similar correlation structure between galaxy properties and the LSS. In particular we revealed a positive and linear dependency between the stellar mass, the absolute magnitude and the color of a galaxy with the corresponding cosmic density field. A remaining subset of data shows inverted correlations, which might be an artifact of non-linear redshift distortions.

  4. STATISTICAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTAL DATA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AHLAM LABDAOUI

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian researcher should know the basic ideas underlying Bayesian methodology and the computational tools used in modern Bayesian econometrics.  Some of the most important methods of posterior simulation are Monte Carlo integration, importance sampling, Gibbs sampling and the Metropolis- Hastings algorithm. The Bayesian should also be able to put the theory and computational tools together in the context of substantive empirical problems. We focus primarily on recent developments in Bayesian computation. Then we focus on particular models. Inevitably, we combine theory and computation in the context of particular models. Although we have tried to be reasonably complete in terms of covering the basic ideas of Bayesian theory and the computational tools most commonly used by the Bayesian, there is no way we can cover all the classes of models used in econometrics. We propose to the user of analysis of variance and linear regression model.

  5. Bayesian methods for measures of agreement

    CERN Document Server

    Broemeling, Lyle D

    2009-01-01

    Using WinBUGS to implement Bayesian inferences of estimation and testing hypotheses, Bayesian Methods for Measures of Agreement presents useful methods for the design and analysis of agreement studies. It focuses on agreement among the various players in the diagnostic process.The author employs a Bayesian approach to provide statistical inferences based on various models of intra- and interrater agreement. He presents many examples that illustrate the Bayesian mode of reasoning and explains elements of a Bayesian application, including prior information, experimental information, the likelihood function, posterior distribution, and predictive distribution. The appendices provide the necessary theoretical foundation to understand Bayesian methods as well as introduce the fundamentals of programming and executing the WinBUGS software.Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, this hands-on book explores numerous measures of agreement, including the Kappa coefficient, the G coefficient, and intraclass correlation...

  6. Applied Bayesian statistical studies in biology and medicine

    CERN Document Server

    D’Amore, G; Scalfari, F

    2004-01-01

    It was written on another occasion· that "It is apparent that the scientific culture, if one means production of scientific papers, is growing exponentially, and chaotically, in almost every field of investigation". The biomedical sciences sensu lato and mathematical statistics are no exceptions. One might say then, and with good reason, that another collection of bio­ statistical papers would only add to the overflow and cause even more confusion. Nevertheless, this book may be greeted with some interest if we state that most of the papers in it are the result of a collaboration between biologists and statisticians, and partly the product of the Summer School th "Statistical Inference in Human Biology" which reaches its 10 edition in 2003 (information about the School can be obtained at the Web site http://www2. stat. unibo. itleventilSito%20scuolalindex. htm). is common experience - and not only This is rather important. Indeed, it in Italy - that encounters between statisticians and researchers are spora...

  7. Applying dynamic Bayesian networks in transliteration detection and generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nabende, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Peter Nabende promoveert op methoden die programma’s voor automatisch vertalen kunnen verbeteren. Hij onderzocht twee systemen voor het genereren en vergelijken van transcripties: een DBN-model (Dynamische Bayesiaanse Netwerken) waarin Pair Hidden Markovmodellen zijn geïmplementeerd en een DBN-model

  8. Effective Parameter Dimension via Bayesian Model Selection in the Inverse Acoustic Scattering Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abel Palafox

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We address a prototype inverse scattering problem in the interface of applied mathematics, statistics, and scientific computing. We pose the acoustic inverse scattering problem in a Bayesian inference perspective and simulate from the posterior distribution using MCMC. The PDE forward map is implemented using high performance computing methods. We implement a standard Bayesian model selection method to estimate an effective number of Fourier coefficients that may be retrieved from noisy data within a standard formulation.

  9. A Bayesian Approach to Network Modularity

    CERN Document Server

    Hofman, Jake M

    2007-01-01

    We present an efficient, principled, and interpretable technique for inferring module assignments and identifying the optimal number of modules in a given network. We show how several existing methods for finding modules can be described as variant, special, or limiting cases of our work, and how related methods for complexity control -- identification of the true number of modules -- are outperformed. Our approach is based on Bayesian methods for model selection which have been used with success for almost a century, implemented using a variational technique developed only in the past decade. We apply the technique to synthetic and real networks, including networks of up to $10^4$ nodes, and outline how the method naturally allows model selection among generative models.

  10. CausalTrail: Testing hypothesis using causal Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stöckel, Daniel; Schmidt, Florian; Trampert, Patrick; Lenhof, Hans-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Summary Causal Bayesian Networks are a special class of Bayesian networks in which the hierarchy directly encodes the causal relationships between the variables. This allows to compute the effect of interventions, which are external changes to the system, caused by e.g. gene knockouts or an administered drug. Whereas numerous packages for constructing causal Bayesian networks are available, hardly any program targeted at downstream analysis exists. In this paper we present CausalTrail, a tool for performing reasoning on causal Bayesian networks using the do-calculus. CausalTrail's features include multiple data import methods, a flexible query language for formulating hypotheses, as well as an intuitive graphical user interface. The program is able to account for missing data and thus can be readily applied in multi-omics settings where it is common that not all measurements are performed for all samples. Availability and Implementation CausalTrail is implemented in C++ using the Boost and Qt5 libraries. It can be obtained from https://github.com/dstoeckel/causaltrail.

  11. A Bayesian variable selection procedure to rank overlapping gene sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skarman Axel

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genome-wide expression profiling using microarrays or sequence-based technologies allows us to identify genes and genetic pathways whose expression patterns influence complex traits. Different methods to prioritize gene sets, such as the genes in a given molecular pathway, have been described. In many cases, these methods test one gene set at a time, and therefore do not consider overlaps among the pathways. Here, we present a Bayesian variable selection method to prioritize gene sets that overcomes this limitation by considering all gene sets simultaneously. We applied Bayesian variable selection to differential expression to prioritize the molecular and genetic pathways involved in the responses to Escherichia coli infection in Danish Holstein cows. Results We used a Bayesian variable selection method to prioritize Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathways. We used our data to study how the variable selection method was affected by overlaps among the pathways. In addition, we compared our approach to another that ignores the overlaps, and studied the differences in the prioritization. The variable selection method was robust to a change in prior probability and stable given a limited number of observations. Conclusions Bayesian variable selection is a useful way to prioritize gene sets while considering their overlaps. Ignoring the overlaps gives different and possibly misleading results. Additional procedures may be needed in cases of highly overlapping pathways that are hard to prioritize.

  12. What are artificial neural networks?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders

    2008-01-01

    Artificial neural networks have been applied to problems ranging from speech recognition to prediction of protein secondary structure, classification of cancers and gene prediction. How do they work and what might they be good for? Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Feb......Artificial neural networks have been applied to problems ranging from speech recognition to prediction of protein secondary structure, classification of cancers and gene prediction. How do they work and what might they be good for? Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Feb...

  13. Bayesian versus 'plain-vanilla Bayesian' multitarget statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahler, Ronald P. S.

    2004-08-01

    Finite-set statistics (FISST) is a direct generalization of single-sensor, single-target Bayes statistics to the multisensor-multitarget realm, based on random set theory. Various aspects of FISST are being investigated by several research teams around the world. In recent years, however, a few partisans have claimed that a "plain-vanilla Bayesian approach" suffices as down-to-earth, "straightforward," and general "first principles" for multitarget problems. Therefore, FISST is mere mathematical "obfuscation." In this and a companion paper I demonstrate the speciousness of these claims. In this paper I summarize general Bayes statistics, what is required to use it in multisensor-multitarget problems, and why FISST is necessary to make it practical. Then I demonstrate that the "plain-vanilla Bayesian approach" is so heedlessly formulated that it is erroneous, not even Bayesian denigrates FISST concepts while unwittingly assuming them, and has resulted in a succession of algorithms afflicted by inherent -- but less than candidly acknowledged -- computational "logjams."

  14. Bayesian imperfect information analysis for clinical recurrent data

    OpenAIRE

    Chang CK; Chang CC

    2014-01-01

    Chih-Kuang Chang,1 Chi-Chang Chang2 1Department of Cardiology, Jen-Ai Hospital, Dali District, Taichung, Taiwan; 2School of Medical Informatics, Chung Shan Medical University, Information Technology Office of Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, Taichung, TaiwanAbstract: In medical research, clinical practice must often be undertaken with imperfect information from limited resources. This study applied Bayesian imperfect information-value analysis to realistic situations to produce likelih...

  15. Bayesian priors for transiting planets

    CERN Document Server

    Kipping, David M

    2016-01-01

    As astronomers push towards discovering ever-smaller transiting planets, it is increasingly common to deal with low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) events, where the choice of priors plays an influential role in Bayesian inference. In the analysis of exoplanet data, the selection of priors is often treated as a nuisance, with observers typically defaulting to uninformative distributions. Such treatments miss a key strength of the Bayesian framework, especially in the low SNR regime, where even weak a priori information is valuable. When estimating the parameters of a low-SNR transit, two key pieces of information are known: (i) the planet has the correct geometric alignment to transit and (ii) the transit event exhibits sufficient signal-to-noise to have been detected. These represent two forms of observational bias. Accordingly, when fitting transits, the model parameter priors should not follow the intrinsic distributions of said terms, but rather those of both the intrinsic distributions and the observational ...

  16. Bayesian approach to rough set

    CERN Document Server

    Marwala, Tshilidzi

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes an approach to training rough set models using Bayesian framework trained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The prior probabilities are constructed from the prior knowledge that good rough set models have fewer rules. Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is conducted through sampling in the rough set granule space and Metropolis algorithm is used as an acceptance criteria. The proposed method is tested to estimate the risk of HIV given demographic data. The results obtained shows that the proposed approach is able to achieve an average accuracy of 58% with the accuracy varying up to 66%. In addition the Bayesian rough set give the probabilities of the estimated HIV status as well as the linguistic rules describing how the demographic parameters drive the risk of HIV.

  17. Bayesian Source Separation and Localization

    CERN Document Server

    Knuth, K H

    1998-01-01

    The problem of mixed signals occurs in many different contexts; one of the most familiar being acoustics. The forward problem in acoustics consists of finding the sound pressure levels at various detectors resulting from sound signals emanating from the active acoustic sources. The inverse problem consists of using the sound recorded by the detectors to separate the signals and recover the original source waveforms. In general, the inverse problem is unsolvable without additional information. This general problem is called source separation, and several techniques have been developed that utilize maximum entropy, minimum mutual information, and maximum likelihood. In previous work, it has been demonstrated that these techniques can be recast in a Bayesian framework. This paper demonstrates the power of the Bayesian approach, which provides a natural means for incorporating prior information into a source model. An algorithm is developed that utilizes information regarding both the statistics of the amplitudes...

  18. Bayesian Inference for Radio Observations

    CERN Document Server

    Lochner, Michelle; Zwart, Jonathan T L; Smirnov, Oleg; Bassett, Bruce A; Oozeer, Nadeem; Kunz, Martin

    2015-01-01

    (Abridged) New telescopes like the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will push into a new sensitivity regime and expose systematics, such as direction-dependent effects, that could previously be ignored. Current methods for handling such systematics rely on alternating best estimates of instrumental calibration and models of the underlying sky, which can lead to inaccurate uncertainty estimates and biased results because such methods ignore any correlations between parameters. These deconvolution algorithms produce a single image that is assumed to be a true representation of the sky, when in fact it is just one realisation of an infinite ensemble of images compatible with the noise in the data. In contrast, here we report a Bayesian formalism that simultaneously infers both systematics and science. Our technique, Bayesian Inference for Radio Observations (BIRO), determines all parameters directly from the raw data, bypassing image-making entirely, by sampling from the joint posterior probability distribution. Thi...

  19. Neural Network-based Q-learning Applied to Obstacle Avoidance in Khepera Ⅱ Mobile Robots%基于神经网络的Q学习在Khepera Ⅱ机器人避障中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    盛维涛; 张文君; 张建兴

    2013-01-01

    为了提高移动机器人的自主学习能力,在传统的机器人行为控制结构基础上设计了智能控制结构,同时引入了基于神经网络的Q学习模块算法,克服了传统算法只能应用到离散状态中的不足.移动机器人的避障实验结果表明,该方法能够使移动机器人通过自学习实现自主避障.%An intelligent control architecture was designed based on a behavior architecture to improve the learning ability of mobile robots.At the same time,a Q-learning algorithm based on a neural network was led into the intelligent control architecture,while normal algorithm can only be applied to discrete states.Experiments of obstacle avoidance show that the mobile robot can learn to avoid obstacles with the algorithm.

  20. Bayesian analysis for kaon photoproduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marsainy, T., E-mail: tmart@fisika.ui.ac.id; Mart, T., E-mail: tmart@fisika.ui.ac.id [Department Fisika, FMIPA, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424 (Indonesia)

    2014-09-25

    We have investigated contribution of the nucleon resonances in the kaon photoproduction process by using an established statistical decision making method, i.e. the Bayesian method. This method does not only evaluate the model over its entire parameter space, but also takes the prior information and experimental data into account. The result indicates that certain resonances have larger probabilities to contribute to the process.

  1. Bayesian priors and nuisance parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Gupta, Sourendu

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian techniques are widely used to obtain spectral functions from correlators. We suggest a technique to rid the results of nuisance parameters, ie, parameters which are needed for the regularization but cannot be determined from data. We give examples where the method works, including a pion mass extraction with two flavours of staggered quarks at a lattice spacing of about 0.07 fm. We also give an example where the method does not work.

  2. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  3. Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2002-01-01

    . This allows for a Bayesian formulation of the indicators whereby the experience and expertise of the inspection personnel may be fully utilized and consistently updated as frequentistic information is collected. The approach is illustrated on an example considering a concrete structure subject to corrosion....... It is shown how half-cell potential measurements may be utilized to update the probability of excessive repair after 50 years....

  4. Perceptual decision making: Drift-diffusion model is equivalent to a Bayesian model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian eBitzer

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Behavioural data obtained with perceptual decision making experiments are typically analysed with the drift-diffusion model. This parsimonious model accumulates noisy pieces of evidence towards a decision bound to explain the accuracy and reaction times of subjects. Recently, Bayesian models have been proposed to explain how the brain extracts information from noisy input as typically presented in perceptual decision making tasks. It has long been known that the drift-diffusion model is tightly linked with such functional Bayesian models but the precise relationship of the two mechanisms was never made explicit. Using a Bayesian model, we derived the equations which relate parameter values between these models. In practice we show that this equivalence is useful when fitting multi-subject data. We further show that the Bayesian model suggests different decision variables which all predict equal responses and discuss how these may be discriminated based on neural correlates of accumulated evidence. In addition, we discuss extensions to the Bayesian model which would be difficult to derive for the drift-diffusion model. We suggest that these and other extensions may be highly useful for deriving new experiments which test novel hypotheses.

  5. Comparison Between Bayesian and Maximum Entropy Analyses of Flow Networks†

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven H. Waldrip

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We compare the application of Bayesian inference and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt method for the analysis of flow networks, such as water, electrical and transport networks. The two methods have the advantage of allowing a probabilistic prediction of flow rates and other variables, when there is insufficient information to obtain a deterministic solution, and also allow the effects of uncertainty to be included. Both methods of inference update a prior to a posterior probability density function (pdf by the inclusion of new information, in the form of data or constraints. The MaxEnt method maximises an entropy function subject to constraints, using the method of Lagrange multipliers,to give the posterior, while the Bayesian method finds its posterior by multiplying the prior with likelihood functions incorporating the measured data. In this study, we examine MaxEnt using soft constraints, either included in the prior or as probabilistic constraints, in addition to standard moment constraints. We show that when the prior is Gaussian,both Bayesian inference and the MaxEnt method with soft prior constraints give the same posterior means, but their covariances are different. In the Bayesian method, the interactions between variables are applied through the likelihood function, using second or higher-order cross-terms within the posterior pdf. In contrast, the MaxEnt method incorporates interactions between variables using Lagrange multipliers, avoiding second-order correlation terms in the posterior covariance. The MaxEnt method with soft prior constraints, therefore, has a numerical advantage over Bayesian inference, in that the covariance terms are avoided in its integrations. The second MaxEnt method with soft probabilistic constraints is shown to give posterior means of similar, but not identical, structure to the other two methods, due to its different formulation.

  6. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2013-07-26

    Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  7. Neural network design with combined backpropagation and creeping random search learning algorithms applied to the determination of retained austenite in TRIP steels; Diseno de redes neuronales con aprendizaje combinado de retropropagacion y busqueda aleatoria progresiva aplicado a la determinacion de austenita retenida en aceros TRIP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toda-Caraballo, I.; Garcia-Mateo, C.; Capdevila, C.

    2010-07-01

    At the beginning of the decade of the nineties, the industrial interest for TRIP steels leads to a significant increase of the investigation and application in this field. In this work, the flexibility of neural networks for the modelling of complex properties is used to tackle the problem of determining the retained austenite content in TRIP-steel. Applying a combination of two learning algorithms (backpropagation and creeping-random-search) for the neural network, a model has been created that enables the prediction of retained austenite in low-Si / low-Al multiphase steels as a function of processing parameters. (Author). 34 refs.

  8. Bayesian modeling of ChIP-chip data using latent variables.

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Mingqi

    2009-10-26

    BACKGROUND: The ChIP-chip technology has been used in a wide range of biomedical studies, such as identification of human transcription factor binding sites, investigation of DNA methylation, and investigation of histone modifications in animals and plants. Various methods have been proposed in the literature for analyzing the ChIP-chip data, such as the sliding window methods, the hidden Markov model-based methods, and Bayesian methods. Although, due to the integrated consideration of uncertainty of the models and model parameters, Bayesian methods can potentially work better than the other two classes of methods, the existing Bayesian methods do not perform satisfactorily. They usually require multiple replicates or some extra experimental information to parametrize the model, and long CPU time due to involving of MCMC simulations. RESULTS: In this paper, we propose a Bayesian latent model for the ChIP-chip data. The new model mainly differs from the existing Bayesian models, such as the joint deconvolution model, the hierarchical gamma mixture model, and the Bayesian hierarchical model, in two respects. Firstly, it works on the difference between the averaged treatment and control samples. This enables the use of a simple model for the data, which avoids the probe-specific effect and the sample (control/treatment) effect. As a consequence, this enables an efficient MCMC simulation of the posterior distribution of the model, and also makes the model more robust to the outliers. Secondly, it models the neighboring dependence of probes by introducing a latent indicator vector. A truncated Poisson prior distribution is assumed for the latent indicator variable, with the rationale being justified at length. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian latent method is successfully applied to real and ten simulated datasets, with comparisons with some of the existing Bayesian methods, hidden Markov model methods, and sliding window methods. The numerical results indicate that the

  9. Bayesian Inversion of Seabed Scattering Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    Bayesian Inversion of Seabed Scattering Data (Special Research Award in Ocean Acoustics) Gavin A.M.W. Steininger School of Earth & Ocean...project are to carry out joint Bayesian inversion of scattering and reflection data to estimate the in-situ seabed scattering and geoacoustic parameters...valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 30 SEP 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Bayesian

  10. Anomaly Detection and Attribution Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    UNCLASSIFIED Anomaly Detection and Attribution Using Bayesian Networks Andrew Kirk, Jonathan Legg and Edwin El-Mahassni National Security and...detection in Bayesian networks , en- abling both the detection and explanation of anomalous cases in a dataset. By exploiting the structure of a... Bayesian network , our algorithm is able to efficiently search for local maxima of data conflict between closely related vari- ables. Benchmark tests using

  11. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...... and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing the successful compilation, and efficient inference, on relational Bayesian networks whose {\\primula}--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  12. Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

    2016-02-15

    This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services.

  13. Guidance on the implementation and reporting of a drug safety Bayesian network meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlssen, David; Price, Karen L; Xia, H Amy; Hong, Hwanhee; Kerman, Jouni; Fu, Haoda; Quartey, George; Heilmann, Cory R; Ma, Haijun; Carlin, Bradley P

    2014-01-01

    The Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG) was formed in 2011 with a vision to ensure that Bayesian methods are well understood and broadly utilized for design and analysis and throughout the medical product development process, and to improve industrial, regulatory, and economic decision making. The group, composed of individuals from academia, industry, and regulatory, has as its mission to facilitate the appropriate use and contribute to the progress of Bayesian methodology. In this paper, the safety sub-team of the BSWG explores the use of Bayesian methods when applied to drug safety meta-analysis and network meta-analysis. Guidance is presented on the conduct and reporting of such analyses. We also discuss different structural model assumptions and provide discussion on prior specification. The work is illustrated through a case study involving a network meta-analysis related to the cardiovascular safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.

  14. Inherently irrational? A computational model of escalation of commitment as Bayesian Updating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilroy, Shawn P; Hantula, Donald A

    2016-06-01

    Monte Carlo simulations were performed to analyze the degree to which two-, three- and four-step learning histories of losses and gains correlated with escalation and persistence in extended extinction (continuous loss) conditions. Simulated learning histories were randomly generated at varying lengths and compositions and warranted probabilities were determined using Bayesian Updating methods. Bayesian Updating predicted instances where particular learning sequences were more likely to engender escalation and persistence under extinction conditions. All simulations revealed greater rates of escalation and persistence in the presence of heterogeneous (e.g., both Wins and Losses) lag sequences, with substantially increased rates of escalation when lags comprised predominantly of losses were followed by wins. These methods were then applied to human investment choices in earlier experiments. The Bayesian Updating models corresponded with data obtained from these experiments. These findings suggest that Bayesian Updating can be utilized as a model for understanding how and when individual commitment may escalate and persist despite continued failures.

  15. SYNTHESIZED EXPECTED BAYESIAN METHOD OF PARAMETRIC ESTIMATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ming HAN; Yuanyao DING

    2004-01-01

    This paper develops a new method of parametric estimate, which is named as "synthesized expected Bayesian method". When samples of products are tested and no failure events occur, thedefinition of expected Bayesian estimate is introduced and the estimates of failure probability and failure rate are provided. After some failure information is introduced by making an extra-test, a synthesized expected Bayesian method is defined and used to estimate failure probability, failure rateand some other parameters in exponential distribution and Weibull distribution of populations. Finally,calculations are performed according to practical problems, which show that the synthesized expected Bayesian method is feasible and easy to operate.

  16. Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

    This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned....... An automated procedure for specifying prior distributions for the parameters in a dynamic Bayesian network is presented. It is a simple extension of the procedure for the ordinary Bayesian networks. Finally the W¨olfer?s sunspot numbers are analyzed....

  17. Variational bayesian method of estimating variance components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arakawa, Aisaku; Taniguchi, Masaaki; Hayashi, Takeshi; Mikawa, Satoshi

    2016-07-01

    We developed a Bayesian analysis approach by using a variational inference method, a so-called variational Bayesian method, to determine the posterior distributions of variance components. This variational Bayesian method and an alternative Bayesian method using Gibbs sampling were compared in estimating genetic and residual variance components from both simulated data and publically available real pig data. In the simulated data set, we observed strong bias toward overestimation of genetic variance for the variational Bayesian method in the case of low heritability and low population size, and less bias was detected with larger population sizes in both methods examined. The differences in the estimates of variance components between the variational Bayesian and the Gibbs sampling were not found in the real pig data. However, the posterior distributions of the variance components obtained with the variational Bayesian method had shorter tails than those obtained with the Gibbs sampling. Consequently, the posterior standard deviations of the genetic and residual variances of the variational Bayesian method were lower than those of the method using Gibbs sampling. The computing time required was much shorter with the variational Bayesian method than with the method using Gibbs sampling.

  18. A Novel Method for Nonlinear Time Series Forecasting of Time-Delay Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Weijin; XU Yuhui

    2006-01-01

    Based on the idea of nonlinear prediction of phase space reconstruction, this paper presented a time delay BP neural network model, whose generalization capability was improved by Bayesian regularization.Furthermore, the model is applied to forecast the import and export trades in one industry.The results showed that the improved model has excellent generalization capabilities, which not only learned the historical curve, but efficiently predicted the trend of business.Comparing with common evaluation of forecasts, we put on a conclusion that nonlinear forecast can not only focus on data combination and precision improvement, it also can vividly reflect the nonlinear characteristic of the forecasting system.While analyzing the forecasting precision of the model, we give a model judgment by calculating the nonlinear characteristic value of the combined serial and original serial, proved that the forecasting model can reasonably catch' the dynamic characteristic of the nonlinear system which produced the origin serial.

  19. A comparison of back propagation and Generalized Regression Neural Networks performance in neutron spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Blanco, Ma Del Rosario; Ornelas-Vargas, Gerardo; Solís-Sánchez, Luis Octavio; Castañeda-Miranada, Rodrigo; Vega-Carrillo, Héctor René; Celaya-Padilla, José M; Garza-Veloz, Idalia; Martínez-Fierro, Margarita; Ortiz-Rodríguez, José Manuel

    2016-11-01

    The process of unfolding the neutron energy spectrum has been subject of research for many years. Monte Carlo, iterative methods, the bayesian theory, the principle of maximum entropy are some of the methods used. The drawbacks associated with traditional unfolding procedures have motivated the research of complementary approaches. Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN), have been applied with success in neutron spectrometry and dosimetry domains, however, the structure and learning parameters are factors that highly impact in the networks performance. In ANN domain, Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the simplest neural networks in term of network architecture and learning algorithm. The learning is instantaneous, requiring no time for training. Opposite to BPNN, a GRNN would be formed instantly with just a 1-pass training on the development data. In the network development phase, the only hurdle is to optimize the hyper-parameter, which is known as sigma, governing the smoothness of the network. The aim of this work was to compare the performance of BPNN and GRNN in the solution of the neutron spectrometry problem. From results obtained it can be observed that despite the very similar results, GRNN performs better than BPNN.

  20. One day prediction of nighttime VLF amplitudes using nonlinear autoregression and neural network modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santosa, H.; Hobara, Y.

    2017-01-01

    The electric field amplitude of very low frequency (VLF) transmitter from Hawaii (NPM) has been continuously recorded at Chofu (CHF), Tokyo, Japan. The VLF amplitude variability indicates lower ionospheric perturbation in the D region (60-90 km altitude range) around the NPM-CHF propagation path. We carried out the prediction of daily nighttime mean VLF amplitude by using Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input Neural Network (NARX NN). The NARX NN model, which was built based on the daily input variables of various physical parameters such as stratospheric temperature, total column ozone, cosmic rays, Dst, and Kp indices possess good accuracy during the model building. The fitted model was constructed within the training period from 1 January 2011 to 4 February 2013 by using three algorithms, namely, Bayesian Neural Network (BRANN), Levenberg Marquardt Neural Network (LMANN), and Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG). The LMANN has the largest Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of 0.94 and smallest root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.19 dB. The constructed models by using LMANN were applied to predict the VLF amplitude from 5 February 2013 to 31 December 2013. As a result the one step (1 day) ahead predicted nighttime VLF amplitude has the r of 0.93 and RMSE of 2.25 dB. We conclude that the model built according to the proposed methodology provides good predictions of the electric field amplitude of VLF waves for NPM-CHF (midlatitude) propagation path.

  1. Lie Group Techniques for Neural Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-03

    Lie group techniques for Neural Learning Edinburgh June 2004 Elena Celledoni SINTEF Applied Mathematics, IMF-NTNU Lie group techniques for Neural...ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) SINTEF Applied Mathematics, IMF-NTNU 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND

  2. Bayesian prediction of placebo analgesia in an instrumental learning model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Won-Mo; Lee, Ye-Seul; Wallraven, Christian; Chae, Younbyoung

    2017-01-01

    Placebo analgesia can be primarily explained by the Pavlovian conditioning paradigm in which a passively applied cue becomes associated with less pain. In contrast, instrumental conditioning employs an active paradigm that might be more similar to clinical settings. In the present study, an instrumental conditioning paradigm involving a modified trust game in a simulated clinical situation was used to induce placebo analgesia. Additionally, Bayesian modeling was applied to predict the placebo responses of individuals based on their choices. Twenty-four participants engaged in a medical trust game in which decisions to receive treatment from either a doctor (more effective with high cost) or a pharmacy (less effective with low cost) were made after receiving a reference pain stimulus. In the conditioning session, the participants received lower levels of pain following both choices, while high pain stimuli were administered in the test session even after making the decision. The choice-dependent pain in the conditioning session was modulated in terms of both intensity and uncertainty. Participants reported significantly less pain when they chose the doctor or the pharmacy for treatment compared to the control trials. The predicted pain ratings based on Bayesian modeling showed significant correlations with the actual reports from participants for both of the choice categories. The instrumental conditioning paradigm allowed for the active choice of optional cues and was able to induce the placebo analgesia effect. Additionally, Bayesian modeling successfully predicted pain ratings in a simulated clinical situation that fits well with placebo analgesia induced by instrumental conditioning. PMID:28225816

  3. Eight-Dimensional Mid-Infrared/Optical Bayesian Quasar Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Richards, Gordon T; Lacy, Mark; Myers, Adam D; Nichol, Robert C; Zakamska, Nadia L; Brunner, Robert J; Brandt, W N; Gray, Alexander G; Parejko, John K; Ptak, Andrew; Schneider, Donald P; Storrie-Lombardi, Lisa J; Szalay, Alexander S

    2008-01-01

    We explore the multidimensional, multiwavelength selection of quasars from mid-IR (MIR) plus optical data, specifically from Spitzer-IRAC and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We apply modern statistical techniques to combined Spitzer MIR and SDSS optical data, allowing up to 8-D color selection of quasars. Using a Bayesian selection method, we catalog 5546 quasar candidates to an 8.0um depth of 56uJy over an area of ~24 sq. deg; ~70% of these candidates are not identified by applying the same Bayesian algorithm to 4-color SDSS optical data alone. Our selection recovers 97.7% of known type 1 quasars in this area and greatly improves the effectiveness of identifying 3.5Bayesian techniques to select quasars with 97% completeness and as little as 10% contamination. This sample has a photometric redshift accuracy of 93.6% (DeltaZ +/- 0.3), remaining roughly constant when the two reddest MI...

  4. Bayesian Concordance Correlation Coefficient with Application to Repeatedly Measured Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atanu BHATTACHARJEE

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: In medical research, Lin's classical concordance correlation coefficient (CCC is frequently applied to evaluate the similarity of the measurements produced by different raters or methods on the same subjects. It is particularly useful for continuous data. The objective of this paper is to propose the Bayesian counterpart to compute CCC for continuous data. Material and Methods: A total of 33 patients of astrocytoma brain treated in the Department of Radiation Oncology at Malabar Cancer Centre is enrolled in this work. It is a continuous data of tumor volume and tumor size repeatedly measured during baseline pretreatment workup and post surgery follow-ups for all patients. The tumor volume and tumor size are measured separately by MRI and CT scan. The agreement of measurement between MRI and CT scan is calculated through CCC. The statistical inference is performed through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC technique. Results: Bayesian CCC is found suitable to get prominent evidence for test statistics to explore the relation between concordance measurements. The posterior mean estimates and 95% credible interval of CCC on tumor size and tumor volume are observed with 0.96(0.87,0.99 and 0.98(0.95,0.99 respectively. Conclusion: The Bayesian inference is adopted for development of the computational algorithm. The approach illustrated in this work provides the researchers an opportunity to find out the most appropriate model for specific data and apply CCC to fulfill the desired hypothesis.

  5. Extreme dry spells: Problem of rounding and Bayesian solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cindric Kalin, Ksenija; Pasaric, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    Two theoretically justified models of extremes are applied to dry spell (DS) series: The generalized Pareto distribution is applied to peak-over-threshold data (POT-GP), and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution is applied to the annual maxima (AM-GEV). DS data are categorized according to three precipitation-per-day thresholds (1, 5 and 10 mm). The well-known classical methods for parameter estimation (L-moments and Maximum Likelihood) are applied both to measured and to simulated DS time series. When applied within the GEV model, both methods yield very similar results. Somewhat surprisingly, in the case of the GP model, these methods lead to substantially different estimates of parameters, as well as return values. This is found to be a consequence of the fact that DS values are recorded discretely as a whole number of days, whereas the classical extreme value distributions are intended for continuous data. The inference is further evaluated within the Bayesian paradigm, where the process of rounding can be incorporated in a straightforward manner. The study confirmed precautionary estimations when applying the AM-GEV model in comparison with the simpler AM-Gumbel model. Regarding POT-GP modelling, the Bayesian approach reveals a high uncertainty that can occur in parameter estimations when very high thresholds are considered. It is found that there are no clear criteria in the assessment of some optimal threshold, nor is there a necessity for its detection. Instead, Bayesian inference provides a reasonable overall picture of the range of thresholds compatible with the GP-model. Furthermore, it is concluded that when using rounded data, all three GP parameters should be assessed. The location estimates should be compatible with the theoretical value of 0.5. Although the present study is performed mainly on the DS series from two stations in Croatia spanning the period of 1961-2010, the authors believe that the methodology developed here is applicable to

  6. Neural fields theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Graben, Peter; Potthast, Roland; Wright, James

    2014-01-01

    With this book, the editors present the first comprehensive collection in neural field studies, authored by leading scientists in the field - among them are two of the founding-fathers of neural field theory. Up to now, research results in the field have been disseminated across a number of distinct journals from mathematics, computational neuroscience, biophysics, cognitive science and others. Starting with a tutorial for novices in neural field studies, the book comprises chapters on emergent patterns, their phase transitions and evolution, on stochastic approaches, cortical development, cognition, robotics and computation, large-scale numerical simulations, the coupling of neural fields to the electroencephalogram and phase transitions in anesthesia. The intended readership are students and scientists in applied mathematics, theoretical physics, theoretical biology, and computational neuroscience. Neural field theory and its applications have a long-standing tradition in the mathematical and computational ...

  7. Photometric Redshift with Bayesian Priors on Physical Properties of Galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Tanaka, Masayuki

    2015-01-01

    We present a proof-of-concept analysis of photometric redshifts with Bayesian priors on physical properties of galaxies. This concept is particularly suited for upcoming/on-going large imaging surveys, in which only several broad-band filters are available and it is hard to break some of the degeneracies in the multi-color space. We construct model templates of galaxies using a stellar population synthesis code and apply Bayesian priors on physical properties such as stellar mass and star formation rate. These priors are a function of redshift and they effectively evolve the templates with time in an observationally motivated way. We demonstrate that the priors help reduce the degeneracy and deliver significantly improved photometric redshifts. Furthermore, we show that a template error function, which corrects for systematic flux errors in the model templates as a function of rest-frame wavelength, delivers further improvements. One great advantage of our technique is that we simultaneously measure redshifts...

  8. Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Cheon, Sooyoung

    2009-11-01

    Monte Carlo methods have received much attention in the recent literature of phylogeny analysis. However, the conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, tend to get trapped in a local mode in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method is compared with two popular Bayesian phylogeny software, BAMBE and MrBayes, on simulated and real datasets. The numerical results indicate that our method outperforms BAMBE and MrBayes. Among the three methods, SAMC produces the consensus trees which have the highest similarity to the true trees, and the model parameter estimates which have the smallest mean square errors, but costs the least CPU time. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheon, Sooyoung; Liang, Faming

    2009-11-01

    Monte Carlo methods have received much attention in the recent literature of phylogeny analysis. However, the conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, tend to get trapped in a local mode in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method is compared with two popular Bayesian phylogeny software, BAMBE and MrBayes, on simulated and real datasets. The numerical results indicate that our method outperforms BAMBE and MrBayes. Among the three methods, SAMC produces the consensus trees which have the highest similarity to the true trees, and the model parameter estimates which have the smallest mean square errors, but costs the least CPU time.

  10. Spatial Bayesian hierarchical modelling of extreme sea states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clancy, Colm; O'Sullivan, John; Sweeney, Conor; Dias, Frédéric; Parnell, Andrew C.

    2016-11-01

    A Bayesian hierarchical framework is used to model extreme sea states, incorporating a latent spatial process to more effectively capture the spatial variation of the extremes. The model is applied to a 34-year hindcast of significant wave height off the west coast of Ireland. The generalised Pareto distribution is fitted to declustered peaks over a threshold given by the 99.8th percentile of the data. Return levels of significant wave height are computed and compared against those from a model based on the commonly-used maximum likelihood inference method. The Bayesian spatial model produces smoother maps of return levels. Furthermore, this approach greatly reduces the uncertainty in the estimates, thus providing information on extremes which is more useful for practical applications.

  11. Bayesian modeling growth curves for quail assuming skewness in errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robson Marcelo Rossi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian modeling growth curves for quail assuming skewness in errors - To assume normal distributions in the data analysis is common in different areas of the knowledge. However we can make use of the other distributions that are capable to model the skewness parameter in the situations that is needed to model data with tails heavier than the normal. This article intend to present alternatives to the assumption of the normality in the errors, adding asymmetric distributions. A Bayesian approach is proposed to fit nonlinear models when the errors are not normal, thus, the distributions t, skew-normal and skew-t are adopted. The methodology is intended to apply to different growth curves to the quail body weights. It was found that the Gompertz model assuming skew-normal errors and skew-t errors, respectively for male and female, were the best fitted to the data.

  12. Decision Support System for Maintenance Management Using Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The maintenance process has undergone several major developments that have led to proactive considerations and the transformation from the traditional "fail and fix" practice into the "predict and prevent" proactive maintenance methodology. The anticipation action, which characterizes this proactive maintenance strategy is mainly based on monitoring, diagnosis, prognosis and decision-making modules. Oil monitoring is a key component of a successful condition monitoring program. It can be used as a proactive tool to identify the wear modes of rubbing parts and diagnoses the faults in machinery. But diagnosis relying on oil analysis technology must deal with uncertain knowledge and fuzzy input data. Besides other methods, Bayesian Networks have been extensively applied to fault diagnosis with the advantages of uncertainty inference; however, in the area of oil monitoring, it is a new field. This paper presents an integrated Bayesian network based decision support for maintenance of diesel engines.

  13. Adaptive Non-Linear Bayesian Filter for ECG Denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitesh Kumar Sao

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The cycles of an electrocardiogram (ECG signal contain three components P-wave, QRS complex and the T-wave. Noise is present in cardiograph as signals being measured in which biological resources (muscle contraction, base line drift, motion noise and environmental resources (power line interference, electrode contact noise, instrumentation noise are normally pollute ECG signal detected at the electrode. Visu-Shrink thresholding and Bayesian thresholding are the two filters based technique on wavelet method which is denoising the PLI noisy ECG signal. So thresholding techniques are applied for the effectiveness of ECG interval and compared the results with the wavelet soft and hard thresholding methods. The outputs are evaluated by calculating the root mean square (RMS, signal to noise ratio (SNR, correlation coefficient (CC and power spectral density (PSD using MATLAB software. The clean ECG signal shows Bayesian thresholding technique is more powerful algorithm for denoising.

  14. Clustered nested sampling: efficient Bayesian inference for cosmology

    CERN Document Server

    Shaw, R; Hobson, M P

    2007-01-01

    Bayesian model selection provides the cosmologist with an exacting tool to distinguish between competing models based purely on the data, via the Bayesian evidence. Previous methods to calculate this quantity either lacked general applicability or were computationally demanding. However, nested sampling (Skilling 2004), which was recently applied successfully to cosmology by Muhkerjee et al. 2006, overcomes both of these impediments. Their implementation restricts the parameter space sampled, and thus improves the efficiency, using a decreasing ellipsoidal bound in the $n$-dimensional parameter space centred on the maximum likelihood point. However, if the likelihood function contains any multi-modality, then the ellipse is prevented from constraining the sampling region efficiently. In this paper we introduce a method of clustered ellipsoidal nested sampling which can form multiple ellipses around each individual peak in the likelihood. In addition we have implemented a method for determining the expectation...

  15. A Bayesian Analysis of the Radioactive Releases of Fukushima

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomioka, Ryota; Mørup, Morten

    2012-01-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi disaster 11 March, 2011 is considered the largest nuclear accident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and has been rated at level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. As different radioactive materials have different effects to human body, it is important to know...... the types of nuclides and their levels of concentration from the recorded mixture of radiations to take necessary measures. We presently formulate a Bayesian generative model for the data available on radioactive releases from the Fukushima Daiichi disaster across Japan. From the sparsely sampled...... the Fukushima Daiichi plant we establish that the model is able to account for the data. We further demonstrate how the model extends to include all the available measurements recorded throughout Japan. The model can be considered a first attempt to apply Bayesian learning unsupervised in order to give a more...

  16. Bayesian Methods and Universal Darwinism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, John

    2009-12-01

    Bayesian methods since the time of Laplace have been understood by their practitioners as closely aligned to the scientific method. Indeed a recent Champion of Bayesian methods, E. T. Jaynes, titled his textbook on the subject Probability Theory: the Logic of Science. Many philosophers of science including Karl Popper and Donald Campbell have interpreted the evolution of Science as a Darwinian process consisting of a `copy with selective retention' algorithm abstracted from Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Arguments are presented for an isomorphism between Bayesian Methods and Darwinian processes. Universal Darwinism, as the term has been developed by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Susan Blackmore, is the collection of scientific theories which explain the creation and evolution of their subject matter as due to the Operation of Darwinian processes. These subject matters span the fields of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences. The principle of Maximum Entropy states that Systems will evolve to states of highest entropy subject to the constraints of scientific law. This principle may be inverted to provide illumination as to the nature of scientific law. Our best cosmological theories suggest the universe contained much less complexity during the period shortly after the Big Bang than it does at present. The scientific subject matter of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences has been created since that time. An explanation is proposed for the existence of this subject matter as due to the evolution of constraints in the form of adaptations imposed on Maximum Entropy. It is argued these adaptations were discovered and instantiated through the Operations of a succession of Darwinian processes.

  17. Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Lemey

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

  18. [Application of artificial neural networks in infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jun-fang; Zhou, Xiao-nong

    2011-02-28

    With the development of information technology, artificial neural networks has been applied to many research fields. Due to the special features such as nonlinearity, self-adaptation, and parallel processing, artificial neural networks are applied in medicine and biology. This review summarizes the application of artificial neural networks in the relative factors, prediction and diagnosis of infectious diseases in recent years.

  19. Bayesian Query-Focused Summarization

    CERN Document Server

    Daumé, Hal

    2009-01-01

    We present BayeSum (for ``Bayesian summarization''), a model for sentence extraction in query-focused summarization. BayeSum leverages the common case in which multiple documents are relevant to a single query. Using these documents as reinforcement for query terms, BayeSum is not afflicted by the paucity of information in short queries. We show that approximate inference in BayeSum is possible on large data sets and results in a state-of-the-art summarization system. Furthermore, we show how BayeSum can be understood as a justified query expansion technique in the language modeling for IR framework.

  20. Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gretchen B. Chapman

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has demonstrated that Bayesian reasoning performance is improved if uncertainty information is presented as natural frequencies rather than single-event probabilities. A questionnaire study of 342 college students replicated this effect but also found that the performance-boosting benefits of the natural frequency presentation occurred primarily for participants who scored high in numeracy. This finding suggests that even comprehension and manipulation of natural frequencies requires a certain threshold of numeracy abilities, and that the beneficial effects of natural frequency presentation may not be as general as previously believed.

  1. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  2. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  3. Bayesian homeopathy: talking normal again.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutten, A L B

    2007-04-01

    Homeopathy has a communication problem: important homeopathic concepts are not understood by conventional colleagues. Homeopathic terminology seems to be comprehensible only after practical experience of homeopathy. The main problem lies in different handling of diagnosis. In conventional medicine diagnosis is the starting point for randomised controlled trials to determine the effect of treatment. In homeopathy diagnosis is combined with other symptoms and personal traits of the patient to guide treatment and predict response. Broadening our scope to include diagnostic as well as treatment research opens the possibility of multi factorial reasoning. Adopting Bayesian methodology opens the possibility of investigating homeopathy in everyday practice and of describing some aspects of homeopathy in conventional terms.

  4. Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering for Positive Definite Matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherian, Anoop; Morellas, Vassilios; Papanikolopoulos, Nikolaos

    2016-05-01

    Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) matrices emerge as data descriptors in several applications of computer vision such as object tracking, texture recognition, and diffusion tensor imaging. Clustering these data matrices forms an integral part of these applications, for which soft-clustering algorithms (K-Means, expectation maximization, etc.) are generally used. As is well-known, these algorithms need the number of clusters to be specified, which is difficult when the dataset scales. To address this issue, we resort to the classical nonparametric Bayesian framework by modeling the data as a mixture model using the Dirichlet process (DP) prior. Since these matrices do not conform to the Euclidean geometry, rather belongs to a curved Riemannian manifold,existing DP models cannot be directly applied. Thus, in this paper, we propose a novel DP mixture model framework for SPD matrices. Using the log-determinant divergence as the underlying dissimilarity measure to compare these matrices, and further using the connection between this measure and the Wishart distribution, we derive a novel DPM model based on the Wishart-Inverse-Wishart conjugate pair. We apply this model to several applications in computer vision. Our experiments demonstrate that our model is scalable to the dataset size and at the same time achieves superior accuracy compared to several state-of-the-art parametric and nonparametric clustering algorithms.

  5. Bayesian data assimilation in shape registration

    KAUST Repository

    Cotter, C J

    2013-03-28

    In this paper we apply a Bayesian framework to the problem of geodesic curve matching. Given a template curve, the geodesic equations provide a mapping from initial conditions for the conjugate momentum onto topologically equivalent shapes. Here, we aim to recover the well-defined posterior distribution on the initial momentum which gives rise to observed points on the target curve; this is achieved by explicitly including a reparameterization in the formulation. Appropriate priors are chosen for the functions which together determine this field and the positions of the observation points, the initial momentum p0 and the reparameterization vector field ν, informed by regularity results about the forward model. Having done this, we illustrate how maximum likelihood estimators can be used to find regions of high posterior density, but also how we can apply recently developed Markov chain Monte Carlo methods on function spaces to characterize the whole of the posterior density. These illustrative examples also include scenarios where the posterior distribution is multimodal and irregular, leading us to the conclusion that knowledge of a state of global maximal posterior density does not always give us the whole picture, and full posterior sampling can give better quantification of likely states and the overall uncertainty inherent in the problem. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  6. Bayesian credible interval construction for Poisson statistics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Yong-Sheng

    2008-01-01

    The construction of the Bayesian credible (confidence) interval for a Poisson observable including both the signal and background with and without systematic uncertainties is presented.Introducing the conditional probability satisfying the requirement of the background not larger than the observed events to construct the Bayesian credible interval is also discussed.A Fortran routine,BPOCI,has been developed to implement the calculation.

  7. Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy

    2016-01-01

    In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

  8. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...... for complex networks can be derived and point out relevant literature....

  9. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  10. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  11. Bayesian analysis of exoplanet and binary orbits

    OpenAIRE

    Schulze-Hartung, Tim; Launhardt, Ralf; Henning, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    We introduce BASE (Bayesian astrometric and spectroscopic exoplanet detection and characterisation tool), a novel program for the combined or separate Bayesian analysis of astrometric and radial-velocity measurements of potential exoplanet hosts and binary stars. The capabilities of BASE are demonstrated using all publicly available data of the binary Mizar A.

  12. Bayesian Network for multiple hypthesis tracking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P. Zajdel; B.J.A. Kröse

    2002-01-01

    For a flexible camera-to-camera tracking of multiple objects we model the objects behavior with a Bayesian network and combine it with the multiple hypohesis framework that associates observations with objects. Bayesian networks offer a possibility to factor complex, joint distributions into a produ

  13. A Bayesian Model Committee Approach to Forecasting Global Solar Radiation

    CERN Document Server

    Lauret, Philippe; Muselli, Marc; David, Mathieu; Diagne, Hadja; Voyant, Cyril

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes to use a rather new modelling approach in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Neural Network (NN) models are combined to form a model committee. The Bayesian inference is used to affect a probability to each model in the committee. Hence, each model's predictions are weighted by their respective probability. The models are fitted to one year of hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) measurements. Another year (the test set) is used for making genuine one hour ahead (h+1) out-of-sample forecast comparisons. The proposed approach is benchmarked against the persistence model. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach.

  14. Experimental validation of a Bayesian model of visual acuity.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dalimier, Eugénie

    2009-01-01

    Based on standard procedures used in optometry clinics, we compare measurements of visual acuity for 10 subjects (11 eyes tested) in the presence of natural ocular aberrations and different degrees of induced defocus, with the predictions given by a Bayesian model customized with aberrometric data of the eye. The absolute predictions of the model, without any adjustment, show good agreement with the experimental data, in terms of correlation and absolute error. The efficiency of the model is discussed in comparison with image quality metrics and other customized visual process models. An analysis of the importance and customization of each stage of the model is also given; it stresses the potential high predictive power from precise modeling of ocular and neural transfer functions.

  15. Spike-Based Bayesian-Hebbian Learning of Temporal Sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tully, Philip J; Lindén, Henrik; Hennig, Matthias H

    2016-01-01

    of firing in pools of excitatory neurons, together with asymmetrical associations between these distinct network states, can be acquired through plasticity. The model's feasibility is demonstrated using simulations of adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model neurons (AdEx). We show that the learning......Many cognitive and motor functions are enabled by the temporal representation and processing of stimuli, but it remains an open issue how neocortical microcircuits can reliably encode and replay such sequences of information. To better understand this, a modular attractor memory network is proposed...... in which meta-stable sequential attractor transitions are learned through changes to synaptic weights and intrinsic excitabilities via the spike-based Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) learning rule. We find that the formation of distributed memories, embodied by increased periods...

  16. Forecasting natural gas consumption in China by Bayesian Model Averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available With rapid growth of natural gas consumption in China, it is in urgent need of more accurate and reliable models to make a reasonable forecast. Considering the limitations of the single model and the model uncertainty, this paper presents a combinative method to forecast natural gas consumption by Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA. It can effectively handle the uncertainty associated with model structure and parameters, and thus improves the forecasting accuracy. This paper chooses six variables for forecasting the natural gas consumption, including GDP, urban population, energy consumption structure, industrial structure, energy efficiency and exports of goods and services. The results show that comparing to Gray prediction model, Linear regression model and Artificial neural networks, the BMA method provides a flexible tool to forecast natural gas consumption that will have a rapid growth in the future. This study can provide insightful information on natural gas consumption in the future.

  17. Bayesian inference for generalized linear models for spiking neurons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Gerwinn

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Generalized Linear Models (GLMs are commonly used statistical methods for modelling the relationship between neural population activity and presented stimuli. When the dimension of the parameter space is large, strong regularization has to be used in order to fit GLMs to datasets of realistic size without overfitting. By imposing properly chosen priors over parameters, Bayesian inference provides an effective and principled approach for achieving regularization. Here we show how the posterior distribution over model parameters of GLMs can be approximated by a Gaussian using the Expectation Propagation algorithm. In this way, we obtain an estimate of the posterior mean and posterior covariance, allowing us to calculate Bayesian confidence intervals that characterize the uncertainty about the optimal solution. From the posterior we also obtain a different point estimate, namely the posterior mean as opposed to the commonly used maximum a posteriori estimate. We systematically compare the different inference techniques on simulated as well as on multi-electrode recordings of retinal ganglion cells, and explore the effects of the chosen prior and the performance measure used. We find that good performance can be achieved by choosing an Laplace prior together with the posterior mean estimate.

  18. Hepatitis disease detection using Bayesian theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maseleno, Andino; Hidayati, Rohmah Zahroh

    2017-02-01

    This paper presents hepatitis disease diagnosis using a Bayesian theory for better understanding of the theory. In this research, we used a Bayesian theory for detecting hepatitis disease and displaying the result of diagnosis process. Bayesian algorithm theory is rediscovered and perfected by Laplace, the basic idea is using of the known prior probability and conditional probability density parameter, based on Bayes theorem to calculate the corresponding posterior probability, and then obtained the posterior probability to infer and make decisions. Bayesian methods combine existing knowledge, prior probabilities, with additional knowledge derived from new data, the likelihood function. The initial symptoms of hepatitis which include malaise, fever and headache. The probability of hepatitis given the presence of malaise, fever, and headache. The result revealed that a Bayesian theory has successfully identified the existence of hepatitis disease.

  19. 2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

    2015-01-01

    The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

  20. Wave transmission prediction of multilayer floating breakwater using neural network

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Patil, S.G.; Hegde, A.V.

    In the present study, an artificial neural network method has been applied for wave transmission prediction of multilayer floating breakwater. Two neural network models are constructed based on the parameters which influence the wave transmission...

  1. A Bayesian Surrogate Model for Rapid Time Series Analysis and Application to Exoplanet Observations

    CERN Document Server

    Ford, Eric B; Veras, Dimitri

    2011-01-01

    We present a Bayesian surrogate model for the analysis of periodic or quasi-periodic time series data. We describe a computationally efficient implementation that enables Bayesian model comparison. We apply this model to simulated and real exoplanet observations. We discuss the results and demonstrate some of the challenges for applying our surrogate model to realistic exoplanet data sets. In particular, we find that analyses of real world data should pay careful attention to the effects of uneven spacing of observations and the choice of prior for the "jitter" parameter.

  2. Use of SAMC for Bayesian analysis of statistical models with intractable normalizing constants

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2014-03-01

    Statistical inference for the models with intractable normalizing constants has attracted much attention. During the past two decades, various approximation- or simulation-based methods have been proposed for the problem, such as the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method and the auxiliary variable Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm specifically addresses this problem: It works by sampling from a sequence of approximate distributions with their average converging to the target posterior distribution, where the approximate distributions can be achieved using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm. A strong law of large numbers is established for the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo estimator under mild conditions. Compared to the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm is more robust to the initial guess of model parameters. Compared to the auxiliary variable MCMC methods, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm avoids the requirement for perfect samples, and thus can be applied to many models for which perfect sampling is not available or very expensive. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm also provides a general framework for approximate Bayesian analysis. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Bayesian parameter estimation for nonlinear modelling of biological pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghasemi Omid

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The availability of temporal measurements on biological experiments has significantly promoted research areas in systems biology. To gain insight into the interaction and regulation of biological systems, mathematical frameworks such as ordinary differential equations have been widely applied to model biological pathways and interpret the temporal data. Hill equations are the preferred formats to represent the reaction rate in differential equation frameworks, due to their simple structures and their capabilities for easy fitting to saturated experimental measurements. However, Hill equations are highly nonlinearly parameterized functions, and parameters in these functions cannot be measured easily. Additionally, because of its high nonlinearity, adaptive parameter estimation algorithms developed for linear parameterized differential equations cannot be applied. Therefore, parameter estimation in nonlinearly parameterized differential equation models for biological pathways is both challenging and rewarding. In this study, we propose a Bayesian parameter estimation algorithm to estimate parameters in nonlinear mathematical models for biological pathways using time series data. Results We used the Runge-Kutta method to transform differential equations to difference equations assuming a known structure of the differential equations. This transformation allowed us to generate predictions dependent on previous states and to apply a Bayesian approach, namely, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method. We applied this approach to the biological pathways involved in the left ventricle (LV response to myocardial infarction (MI and verified our algorithm by estimating two parameters in a Hill equation embedded in the nonlinear model. We further evaluated our estimation performance with different parameter settings and signal to noise ratios. Our results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm for both linearly and nonlinearly

  4. Bayesian networks for evaluation of evidence from forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, M Gunnar; Sundström, Anders; Lindström, Anders

    2013-09-01

    In the aftermath of a CBRN incident, there is an urgent need to reconstruct events in order to bring the perpetrators to court and to take preventive actions for the future. The challenge is to discriminate, based on available information, between alternative scenarios. Forensic interpretation is used to evaluate to what extent results from the forensic investigation favor the prosecutors' or the defendants' arguments, using the framework of Bayesian hypothesis testing. Recently, several new scientific disciplines have been used in a forensic context. In the AniBioThreat project, the framework was applied to veterinary forensic pathology, tracing of pathogenic microorganisms, and forensic entomology. Forensic entomology is an important tool for estimating the postmortem interval in, for example, homicide investigations as a complement to more traditional methods. In this article we demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian framework for evaluating entomological evidence in a forensic investigation through the analysis of a hypothetical scenario involving suspect movement of carcasses from a clandestine laboratory. Probabilities of different findings under the alternative hypotheses were estimated using a combination of statistical analysis of data, expert knowledge, and simulation, and entomological findings are used to update the beliefs about the prosecutors' and defendants' hypotheses and to calculate the value of evidence. The Bayesian framework proved useful for evaluating complex hypotheses using findings from several insect species, accounting for uncertainty about development rate, temperature, and precolonization. The applicability of the forensic statistic approach to evaluating forensic results from a CBRN incident is discussed.

  5. Bayesian geostatistical modeling of leishmaniasis incidence in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios-Alexios Karagiannis-Voules

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is endemic in 98 countries with an estimated 350 million people at risk and approximately 2 million cases annually. Brazil is one of the most severely affected countries. METHODOLOGY: We applied Bayesian geostatistical negative binomial models to analyze reported incidence data of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil covering a 10-year period (2001-2010. Particular emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal patterns. The models were fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform fast approximate Bayesian inference. Bayesian variable selection was employed to determine the most important climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic predictors of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For both types of leishmaniasis, precipitation and socioeconomic proxies were identified as important risk factors. The predicted number of cases in 2010 were 30,189 (standard deviation [SD]: 7,676 for cutaneous leishmaniasis and 4,889 (SD: 288 for visceral leishmaniasis. Our risk maps predicted the highest numbers of infected people in the states of Minas Gerais and Pará for visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our spatially explicit, high-resolution incidence maps identified priority areas where leishmaniasis control efforts should be targeted with the ultimate goal to reduce disease incidence.

  6. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  7. Bayesian accounts of covert selective attention: A tutorial review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Benjamin T

    2015-05-01

    Decision making and optimal observer models offer an important theoretical approach to the study of covert selective attention. While their probabilistic formulation allows quantitative comparison to human performance, the models can be complex and their insights are not always immediately apparent. Part 1 establishes the theoretical appeal of the Bayesian approach, and introduces the way in which probabilistic approaches can be applied to covert search paradigms. Part 2 presents novel formulations of Bayesian models of 4 important covert attention paradigms, illustrating optimal observer predictions over a range of experimental manipulations. Graphical model notation is used to present models in an accessible way and Supplementary Code is provided to help bridge the gap between model theory and practical implementation. Part 3 reviews a large body of empirical and modelling evidence showing that many experimental phenomena in the domain of covert selective attention are a set of by-products. These effects emerge as the result of observers conducting Bayesian inference with noisy sensory observations, prior expectations, and knowledge of the generative structure of the stimulus environment.

  8. Bayesian inference in the numerical solution of Laplace's equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, Fábio Macêdo; da Costa Júnior, Edson Alves

    2012-05-01

    Inference is not unrelated to numerical analysis: given partial information about a mathematical problem, one has to estimate the unknown "true solution" and uncertainties. Many methods of interpolation (least squares, Kriging, Tikhonov regularization, etc) have also a probabilistic interpretation. O'Hagan showed that quadratures can also be constructed explicitly as a form of Bayesian inference (O'Hagan, A., BAYESIAN STATISTICS (1992) 4, pp. 345-363). In his framework, the integrand is modeled as a Gaussian process. It is then possible to build a reliable estimate for the value of the integral by conditioning the stochastic process to the known values of the integr nd in a finite set of points. The present work applies a similar method for the problem of solving Laplace's equation inside a closed boundary. First, one needs a Gaussian process that yields arbitrary harmonic functions. Secondly, the boundaries (Dirichilet or Neumann conditions) are used to update these probabilities and to estimate the solution in the whole domain. This procedure is similar to the widely used Boundary Element Method, but differs from it in the treatment of the boundaries. The language of Bayesian inference gives more flexibility on how the boundary conditions and conservation laws can be handled. This flexibility can be used to attain greater accuracy using a coarser discretization of the boundary and can open doors to more efficient implementations.

  9. Bayesian wavelet PCA methodology for turbomachinery damage diagnosis under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shengli; Jiang, Xiaomo; Huang, Jinzhi; Yang, Shuhua; Wang, Xiaofang

    2016-12-01

    Centrifugal compressor often suffers various defects such as impeller cracking, resulting in forced outage of the total plant. Damage diagnostics and condition monitoring of such a turbomachinery system has become an increasingly important and powerful tool to prevent potential failure in components and reduce unplanned forced outage and further maintenance costs, while improving reliability, availability and maintainability of a turbomachinery system. This paper presents a probabilistic signal processing methodology for damage diagnostics using multiple time history data collected from different locations of a turbomachine, considering data uncertainty and multivariate correlation. The proposed methodology is based on the integration of three advanced state-of-the-art data mining techniques: discrete wavelet packet transform, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and probabilistic principal component analysis. The multiresolution wavelet analysis approach is employed to decompose a time series signal into different levels of wavelet coefficients. These coefficients represent multiple time-frequency resolutions of a signal. Bayesian hypothesis testing is then applied to each level of wavelet coefficient to remove possible imperfections. The ratio of posterior odds Bayesian approach provides a direct means to assess whether there is imperfection in the decomposed coefficients, thus avoiding over-denoising. Power spectral density estimated by the Welch method is utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of Bayesian wavelet cleansing method. Furthermore, the probabilistic principal component analysis approach is developed to reduce dimensionality of multiple time series and to address multivariate correlation and data uncertainty for damage diagnostics. The proposed methodology and generalized framework is demonstrated with a set of sensor data collected from a real-world centrifugal compressor with impeller cracks, through both time series and contour analyses of vibration

  10. Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

    2010-12-01

    Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

  11. Prediction in Health Domain Using Bayesian Networks Optimization Based on Induction Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felgaer, Pablo; Britos, Paola; García-Martínez, Ramón

    A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph in which each node represents a variable and each arc a probabilistic dependency; they are used to provide: a compact form to represent the knowledge and flexible methods of reasoning. Obtaining it from data is a learning process that is divided in two steps: structural learning and parametric learning. In this paper we define an automatic learning method that optimizes the Bayesian networks applied to classification, using a hybrid method of learning that combines the advantages of the induction techniques of the decision trees (TDIDT-C4.5) with those of the Bayesian networks. The resulting method is applied to prediction in health domain.

  12. A Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition of performance in Approach-Avoidance Tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Beckers, Tom; Kindt, Merel; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2015-01-01

    Common methods for analysing response time (RT) tasks, frequently used across different disciplines of psychology, suffer from a number of limitations such as the failure to directly measure the underlying latent processes of interest and the inability to take into account the uncertainty associated with each individual's point estimate of performance. Here, we discuss a Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model and apply it to RT data. This model allows researchers to decompose performance into meaningful psychological processes and to account optimally for individual differences and commonalities, even with relatively sparse data. We highlight the advantages of the Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition by applying it to performance on Approach-Avoidance Tasks, widely used in the emotion and psychopathology literature. Model fits for two experimental data-sets demonstrate that the model performs well. The Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model overcomes important limitations of current analysis procedures and provides deeper insight in latent psychological processes of interest.

  13. Accelerating inference for diffusions observed with measurement error and large sample sizes using approximate Bayesian computation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Picchini, Umberto; Forman, Julie Lyng

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, dynamical modelling has been provided with a range of breakthrough methods to perform exact Bayesian inference. However, it is often computationally unfeasible to apply exact statistical methodologies in the context of large data sets and complex models. This paper considers...... a nonlinear stochastic differential equation model observed with correlated measurement errors and an application to protein folding modelling. An approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-MCMC algorithm is suggested to allow inference for model parameters within reasonable time constraints. The ABC algorithm...... applications. A simulation study is conducted to compare our strategy with exact Bayesian inference, the latter resulting two orders of magnitude slower than ABC-MCMC for the considered set-up. Finally, the ABC algorithm is applied to a large size protein data. The suggested methodology is fairly general...

  14. Quantum Bayesianism at the Perimeter

    CERN Document Server

    Fuchs, Christopher A

    2010-01-01

    The author summarizes the Quantum Bayesian viewpoint of quantum mechanics, developed originally by C. M. Caves, R. Schack, and himself. It is a view crucially dependent upon the tools of quantum information theory. Work at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics continues the development and is focused on the hard technical problem of a finding a good representation of quantum mechanics purely in terms of probabilities, without amplitudes or Hilbert-space operators. The best candidate representation involves a mysterious entity called a symmetric informationally complete quantum measurement. Contemplation of it gives a way of thinking of the Born Rule as an addition to the rules of probability theory, applicable when one gambles on the consequences of interactions with physical systems. The article ends by outlining some directions for future work.

  15. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  16. Hedging Strategies for Bayesian Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Brochu, Eric; de Freitas, Nando

    2010-01-01

    Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes has become an increasingly popular tool in the machine learning community. It is efficient and can be used when very little is known about the objective function, making it popular in expensive black-box optimization scenarios. It is able to do this by sampling the objective using an acquisition function which incorporates the model's estimate of the objective and the uncertainty at any given point. However, there are several different parameterized acquisition functions in the literature, and it is often unclear which one to use. Instead of using a single acquisition function, we adopt a portfolio of acquisition functions governed by an online multi-armed bandit strategy. We describe the method, which we call GP-Hedge, and show that this method almost always outperforms the best individual acquisition function.

  17. Bayesian Inference with Optimal Maps

    CERN Document Server

    Moselhy, Tarek A El

    2011-01-01

    We present a new approach to Bayesian inference that entirely avoids Markov chain simulation, by constructing a map that pushes forward the prior measure to the posterior measure. Existence and uniqueness of a suitable measure-preserving map is established by formulating the problem in the context of optimal transport theory. We discuss various means of explicitly parameterizing the map and computing it efficiently through solution of an optimization problem, exploiting gradient information from the forward model when possible. The resulting algorithm overcomes many of the computational bottlenecks associated with Markov chain Monte Carlo. Advantages of a map-based representation of the posterior include analytical expressions for posterior moments and the ability to generate arbitrary numbers of independent posterior samples without additional likelihood evaluations or forward solves. The optimization approach also provides clear convergence criteria for posterior approximation and facilitates model selectio...

  18. Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2015-01-01

    Correlated component analysis as proposed by Dmochowski, Sajda, Dias, and Parra (2012) is a tool for investigating brain process similarity in the responses to multiple views of a given stimulus. Correlated components are identified under the assumption that the involved spatial networks are iden......Correlated component analysis as proposed by Dmochowski, Sajda, Dias, and Parra (2012) is a tool for investigating brain process similarity in the responses to multiple views of a given stimulus. Correlated components are identified under the assumption that the involved spatial networks...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....

  19. Bayesian anti-sparse coding

    CERN Document Server

    Elvira, Clément; Dobigeon, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    Sparse representations have proven their efficiency in solving a wide class of inverse problems encountered in signal and image processing. Conversely, enforcing the information to be spread uniformly over representation coefficients exhibits relevant properties in various applications such as digital communications. Anti-sparse regularization can be naturally expressed through an $\\ell_{\\infty}$-norm penalty. This paper derives a probabilistic formulation of such representations. A new probability distribution, referred to as the democratic prior, is first introduced. Its main properties as well as three random variate generators for this distribution are derived. Then this probability distribution is used as a prior to promote anti-sparsity in a Gaussian linear inverse problem, yielding a fully Bayesian formulation of anti-sparse coding. Two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are proposed to generate samples according to the posterior distribution. The first one is a standard Gibbs sampler. The seco...

  20. Bayesian Inference in Queueing Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Sutton, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Modern Web services, such as those at Google, Yahoo!, and Amazon, handle billions of requests per day on clusters of thousands of computers. Because these services operate under strict performance requirements, a statistical understanding of their performance is of great practical interest. Such services are modeled by networks of queues, where one queue models each of the individual computers in the system. A key challenge is that the data is incomplete, because recording detailed information about every request to a heavily used system can require unacceptable overhead. In this paper we develop a Bayesian perspective on queueing models in which the arrival and departure times that are not observed are treated as latent variables. Underlying this viewpoint is the observation that a queueing model defines a deterministic transformation between the data and a set of independent variables called the service times. With this viewpoint in hand, we sample from the posterior distribution over missing data and model...

  1. A Bayesian Reflection on Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Wolf

    1999-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The topic of this paper is a novel Bayesian continuous-basis field representation and inference framework. Within this paper several problems are solved: The maximally informative inference of continuous-basis fields, that is where the basis for the field is itself a continuous object and not representable in a finite manner; the tradeoff between accuracy of representation in terms of information learned, and memory or storage capacity in bits; the approximation of probability distributions so that a maximal amount of information about the object being inferred is preserved; an information theoretic justification for multigrid methodology. The maximally informative field inference framework is described in full generality and denoted the Generalized Kalman Filter. The Generalized Kalman Filter allows the update of field knowledge from previous knowledge at any scale, and new data, to new knowledge at any other scale. An application example instance, the inference of continuous surfaces from measurements (for example, camera image data, is presented.

  2. Flood alert system based on bayesian techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulliver, Z.; Herrero, J.; Viesca, C.; Polo, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    The problem of floods in the Mediterranean regions is closely linked to the occurrence of torrential storms in dry regions, where even the water supply relies on adequate water management. Like other Mediterranean basins in Southern Spain, the Guadalhorce River Basin is a medium sized watershed (3856 km2) where recurrent yearly floods occur , mainly in autumn and spring periods, driven by cold front phenomena. The torrential character of the precipitation in such small basins, with a concentration time of less than 12 hours, produces flash flood events with catastrophic effects over the city of Malaga (600000 inhabitants). From this fact arises the need for specific alert tools which can forecast these kinds of phenomena. Bayesian networks (BN) have been emerging in the last decade as a very useful and reliable computational tool for water resources and for the decision making process. The joint use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and BN have served us to recognize and simulate the two different types of hydrological behaviour in the basin: natural and regulated. This led to the establishment of causal relationships between precipitation, discharge from upstream reservoirs, and water levels at a gauging station. It was seen that a recurrent ANN model working at an hourly scale, considering daily precipitation and the two previous hourly values of reservoir discharge and water level, could provide R2 values of 0.86. BN's results slightly improve this fit, but contribute with uncertainty to the prediction. In our current work to Design a Weather Warning Service based on Bayesian techniques the first steps were carried out through an analysis of the correlations between the water level and rainfall at certain representative points in the basin, along with the upstream reservoir discharge. The lower correlation found between precipitation and water level emphasizes the highly regulated condition of the stream. The autocorrelations of the variables were also

  3. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  4. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...... by evaluating and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing successful compilation and efficient inference on relational Bayesian networks, whose PRIMULA--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  5. Rule Extraction using Artificial Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Artificial neural networks have been successfully applied to a variety of business application problems involving classification and regression. Although backpropagation neural networks generally predict better than decision trees do for pattern classification problems, they are often regarded as black boxes, i.e., their predictions are not as interpretable as those of decision trees. In many applications, it is desirable to extract knowledge from trained neural networks so that the users can...

  6. Analysis of COSIMA spectra: Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. J. Lehto

    2015-06-01

    secondary ion mass spectrometer (TOF-SIMS spectra. The method is applied to the COmetary Secondary Ion Mass Analyzer (COSIMA TOF-SIMS mass spectra where the analysis can be broken into subgroups of lines close to integer mass values. The effects of the instrumental dead time are discussed in a new way. The method finds the joint probability density functions of measured line parameters (number of lines, and their widths, peak amplitudes, integrated amplitudes and positions. In the case of two or more lines, these distributions can take complex forms. The derived line parameters can be used to further calibrate the mass scaling of TOF-SIMS and to feed the results into other analysis methods such as multivariate analyses of spectra. We intend to use the method, first as a comprehensive tool to perform quantitative analysis of spectra, and second as a fast tool for studying interesting targets for obtaining additional TOF-SIMS measurements of the sample, a property unique to COSIMA. Finally, we point out that the Bayesian method can be thought of as a means to solve inverse problems but with forward calculations, only with no iterative corrections or other manipulation of the observed data.

  7. Semiparametric Bayesian Regression with Applications in Astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broadbent, Mary Elizabeth

    In this thesis we describe a class of Bayesian semiparametric models, known as Levy Adaptive Regression Kernels (LARK); a novel method for posterior computation for those models; and the applications of these models in astronomy, in particular to the analysis of the photon fluence time series of gamma-ray bursts. Gamma-ray bursts are bursts of photons which arrive in a varying number of overlapping pulses with a distinctive "fast-rise, exponential decay" shape in the time domain. LARK models allow us to do inference both on the number of pulses, but also on the parameters which describe the pulses, such as incident time, or decay rate. In Chapter 2, we describe a novel method to aid posterior computation in infinitely-divisible models, of which LARK models are a special case, when the posterior is evaluated through Markov chain Monte Carlo. This is applied in Chapter 3, where time series representing the photon fluence in a single energy channel is analyzed using LARK methods. Due to the effect of the discriminators on BATSE and other instruments, it is important to model the gamma-ray bursts in the incident space. Chapter 4 describes the first to model bursts in the incident photon space, instead of after they have been distorted by the discriminators; since to model photons as they enter the detector is to model both the energy and the arrival time of the incident photon, this model is also the first to jointly model the time and energy domains.

  8. Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Orum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2004-01-01

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2 - T i e Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from [Koller & Lerner, 20001 to model fault detection in a watertank system. In [Koller & Lerner, 20001 a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for inference. We extend the experiment and perform approximate inference using The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Furthermore, we combine these techniques in a 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation framework and apply it to the watertank system. We show that UKF and UKF in a PF framework outperfom the generic PF, EKF and EKF in a PF framework with respect to accuracy and robustness in terms of estimation RMSE. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. We also show that the choice of network structure is very important for the performance of the generic PF and the EKF algorithms, but not for the UKF algorithms. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the water[ank simulation. Theory and implementation is based on the theory presented.

  9. DIAMONDS: a new Bayesian nested sampling tool*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corsaro Enrico

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of high-quality asteroseismic data provided by the NASA Kepler Mission, we developed a new code, termed DIAMONDS (high-DImensional And multi-MOdal NesteD Sampling, for fast Bayesian parameter estimation and model comparison by means of the Nested Sampling Monte Carlo (NSMC algorithm, an efficient and powerful method very suitable for high-dimensional problems (like the peak bagging analysis of solar-like oscillations and multi-modal problems (i.e. problems that show multiple solutions. We applied the code to the peak bagging analysis of solar-like oscillations observed in a challenging F-type star. By means of DIAMONDS one is able to detect the different backgrounds in the power spectrum of the star (e.g. stellar granulation and faculae activity and to understand whether one or two oscillation peaks can be identified or not. In addition, we demonstrate a novel approach to peak bagging based on multi-modality, which is able to reduce significantly the number of free parameters involved in the peak bagging model. This novel approach is therefore of great interest for possible future automatization of the entire analysis technique.

  10. BPR: Bayesian Personalized Ranking from Implicit Feedback

    CERN Document Server

    Rendle, Steffen; Gantner, Zeno; Schmidt-Thieme, Lars

    2012-01-01

    Item recommendation is the task of predicting a personalized ranking on a set of items (e.g. websites, movies, products). In this paper, we investigate the most common scenario with implicit feedback (e.g. clicks, purchases). There are many methods for item recommendation from implicit feedback like matrix factorization (MF) or adaptive knearest-neighbor (kNN). Even though these methods are designed for the item prediction task of personalized ranking, none of them is directly optimized for ranking. In this paper we present a generic optimization criterion BPR-Opt for personalized ranking that is the maximum posterior estimator derived from a Bayesian analysis of the problem. We also provide a generic learning algorithm for optimizing models with respect to BPR-Opt. The learning method is based on stochastic gradient descent with bootstrap sampling. We show how to apply our method to two state-of-the-art recommender models: matrix factorization and adaptive kNN. Our experiments indicate that for the task of p...

  11. Constraining duty cycles through a Bayesian technique

    CERN Document Server

    Romano, P; Segreto, A; Ducci, L; Vercellone, S

    2014-01-01

    The duty cycle (DC) of astrophysical sources is generally defined as the fraction of time during which the sources are active. However, DCs are generally not provided with statistical uncertainties, since the standard approach is to perform Monte Carlo bootstrap simulations to evaluate them, which can be quite time consuming for a large sample of sources. As an alternative, considerably less time-consuming approach, we derived the theoretical expectation value for the DC and its error for sources whose state is one of two possible, mutually exclusive states, inactive (off) or flaring (on), as based on a finite set of independent observational data points. Following a Bayesian approach, we derived the analytical expression for the posterior, the conjugated distribution adopted as prior, and the expectation value and variance. We applied our method to the specific case of the inactivity duty cycle (IDC) for supergiant fast X-ray transients. We also studied IDC as a function of the number of observations in the ...

  12. Bayesian object classification of gold nanoparticles

    KAUST Repository

    Konomi, Bledar A.

    2013-06-01

    The properties of materials synthesized with nanoparticles (NPs) are highly correlated to the sizes and shapes of the nanoparticles. The transmission electron microscopy (TEM) imaging technique can be used to measure the morphological characteristics of NPs, which can be simple circles or more complex irregular polygons with varying degrees of scales and sizes. A major difficulty in analyzing the TEM images is the overlapping of objects, having different morphological properties with no specific information about the number of objects present. Furthermore, the objects lying along the boundary render automated image analysis much more difficult. To overcome these challenges, we propose a Bayesian method based on the marked-point process representation of the objects. We derive models, both for the marks which parameterize the morphological aspects and the points which determine the location of the objects. The proposed model is an automatic image segmentation and classification procedure, which simultaneously detects the boundaries and classifies the NPs into one of the predetermined shape families. We execute the inference by sampling the posterior distribution using Markov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) since the posterior is doubly intractable. We apply our novel method to several TEM imaging samples of gold NPs, producing the needed statistical characterization of their morphology. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2013.

  13. Evaluation of a partial genome screening of two asthma susceptibility regions using bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildikó Ungvári

    Full Text Available Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls. The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA. This method uses bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated.With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2-1.8; p = 3×10(-4. The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics.In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance.

  14. BONNSAI: correlated stellar observables in Bayesian methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, F. R. N.; Castro, N.; Fossati, L.; Langer, N.; de Koter, A.

    2017-02-01

    In an era of large spectroscopic surveys of stars and big data, sophisticated statistical methods become more and more important in order to infer fundamental stellar parameters such as mass and age. Bayesian techniques are powerful methods because they can match all available observables simultaneously to stellar models while taking prior knowledge properly into account. However, in most cases it is assumed that observables are uncorrelated which is generally not the case. Here, we include correlations in the Bayesian code Bonnsai by incorporating the covariance matrix in the likelihood function. We derive a parametrisation of the covariance matrix that, in addition to classical uncertainties, only requires the specification of a correlation parameter that describes how observables co-vary. Our correlation parameter depends purely on the method with which observables have been determined and can be analytically derived in some cases. This approach therefore has the advantage that correlations can be accounted for even if information for them are not available in specific cases but are known in general. Because the new likelihood model is a better approximation of the data, the reliability and robustness of the inferred parameters are improved. We find that neglecting correlations biases the most likely values of inferred stellar parameters and affects the precision with which these parameters can be determined. The importance of these biases depends on the strength of the correlations and the uncertainties. For example, we apply our technique to massive OB stars, but emphasise that it is valid for any type of stars. For effective temperatures and surface gravities determined from atmosphere modelling, we find that masses can be underestimated on average by 0.5σ and mass uncertainties overestimated by a factor of about 2 when neglecting correlations. At the same time, the age precisions are underestimated over a wide range of stellar parameters. We conclude that

  15. Computational modeling of neural activities for statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Kolossa, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    This authored monograph supplies empirical evidence for the Bayesian brain hypothesis by modeling event-related potentials (ERP) of the human electroencephalogram (EEG) during successive trials in cognitive tasks. The employed observer models are useful to compute probability distributions over observable events and hidden states, depending on which are present in the respective tasks. Bayesian model selection is then used to choose the model which best explains the ERP amplitude fluctuations. Thus, this book constitutes a decisive step towards a better understanding of the neural coding and computing of probabilities following Bayesian rules. The target audience primarily comprises research experts in the field of computational neurosciences, but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students who want to specialize in this field. .

  16. The Diagnosis of Reciprocating Machinery by Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    A Bayesian Network is a reasoning tool based on probability theory and has many advantages that other reasoning tools do not have. This paper discusses the basic theory of Bayesian networks and studies the problems in constructing Bayesian networks. The paper also constructs a Bayesian diagnosis network of a reciprocating compressor. The example helps us to draw a conclusion that Bayesian diagnosis networks can diagnose reciprocating machinery effectively.

  17. Handbook on neural information processing

    CERN Document Server

    Maggini, Marco; Jain, Lakhmi

    2013-01-01

    This handbook presents some of the most recent topics in neural information processing, covering both theoretical concepts and practical applications. The contributions include:                         Deep architectures                         Recurrent, recursive, and graph neural networks                         Cellular neural networks                         Bayesian networks                         Approximation capabilities of neural networks                         Semi-supervised learning                         Statistical relational learning                         Kernel methods for structured data                         Multiple classifier systems                         Self organisation and modal learning                         Applications to ...

  18. Logic Mining Using Neural Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Sathasivam, Saratha

    2008-01-01

    Knowledge could be gained from experts, specialists in the area of interest, or it can be gained by induction from sets of data. Automatic induction of knowledge from data sets, usually stored in large databases, is called data mining. Data mining methods are important in the management of complex systems. There are many technologies available to data mining practitioners, including Artificial Neural Networks, Regression, and Decision Trees. Neural networks have been successfully applied in wide range of supervised and unsupervised learning applications. Neural network methods are not commonly used for data mining tasks, because they often produce incomprehensible models, and require long training times. One way in which the collective properties of a neural network may be used to implement a computational task is by way of the concept of energy minimization. The Hopfield network is well-known example of such an approach. The Hopfield network is useful as content addressable memory or an analog computer for s...

  19. Neural Networks in Control Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    examined, and it appears that considering 'normal' neural network models with, say, 500 samples, the problem of over-fitting is neglible, and therefore it is not taken into consideration afterwards. Numerous model types, often met in control applications, are implemented as neural network models....... - Control concepts including parameter estimation - Control concepts including inverse modelling - Control concepts including optimal control For each of the three groups, different control concepts and specific training methods are detailed described.Further, all control concepts are tested on the same......The intention of this report is to make a systematic examination of the possibilities of applying neural networks in those technical areas, which are familiar to a control engineer. In other words, the potential of neural networks in control applications is given higher priority than a detailed...

  20. A Bayesian-style approach to estimating LISA science capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, John; Marsat, Sylvain

    2017-01-01

    A full understanding of LISA's science capability will require accurate models of incident waveform signals and the instrumental response. While Fisher matrix analysis is useful for some estimates, a Bayesian characterization of simulated probability distributions is needed for understanding important cases at the limit of LISA's capability. We apply fast analysis algorithms enabling accurate treatment using EOB waveforms with relevant higher modes and the full-featured LISA response to study these aspects of LISA science capability. Supported by NASA grant 11-ATP-046.