Combining drought survival via summer dormancy and annual biomass productivity in Dactylis glomerata L.

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Rajae eKallida

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Under Mediterranean climates, the best strategy to produce rain-fed fodder crops is to develop perennial drought resistant varieties. Summer dormancy present in native germplasm has been shown to confer a high level of survival under severe drought. Nevertheless it has also been shown to be negatively correlated with annual biomass productivity. The aim of this study was to analyse the correlations between summer dormancy and annual biomass productivity related traits and to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL for these traits in a progeny of a summer dormant cocksfoot parent (Kasbah and a summer active parent (Medly. A total of 283 offspring and the parents were phenotyped for summer dormancy, plant growth rate and heading date in Morocco and for maximum leaf elongation rate (LERm in France. The individuals were genotyped with a total of 325 markers including 59 AFLP, 64 SSR and 202 DArT markers. The offspring exhibited a large quantitative variation for all measured traits. Summer dormancy showed a negative correlation with both plant growth rate (-0.34 p<0.005 and LERm (-0.27 p<0.005. However, genotypes with both a high level of summer dormancy and a high level of plant growth rate were detected in the progeny. One genetic map per parent was built with a total length of 377 and 423 cM for Kasbah and Medly, respectively. Both different and co-localised QTL for summer dormancy and plant growth rate were identified. These results demonstrate that it should be possible to create summer dormant cocksfoot varieties with a high annual biomass productivity.

Analysis of Droughts of Northwest of Iran Using the Reconnaissance Drought Index

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behrouz hosseini

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Drought is a creeping natural phenomenon, which can occur in any region. Such phenomenon not only affects the region subjected to drought, but its adverse effects can also be extended to other adjacent regions. This phenomenon mainly starts with water deficiency (say less than long- term mean of variable under study such as rainfall, streamflow, groundwater level or soil moisture and progress in time. This period can be ended by increasing the rainfall and reaching the mean level. Even after the ending of a drought period, its adverse effects can be continued for several months. Although, it is not possible (at least at this time to prevent the occurrence of drought in a given region, it is not impossible to alleviate the drought consequences by scientific water management. Such a management should be employed before drought initiation as well as during it and continue on even after the end of the drought period. The frequency of the main drought characteristics is a major concern of this study. The Northwest of Iran recently encountered severe and prolonged droughts, such that a major portion of the Urmia Lake surface disappeared during the last drought in recent years. In order to study drought characteristics, we used the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI. This index is based on annual rainfall and potential reference crop evapotranspiration (abbreviated by PET here. This study employed the Monte Carlo simulation technique for synthetic data generation for analysis. Materials and Methods: The information from the 17 synoptic weather stations located in the North-west of Iran was used for drought analysis. Data was gathered from the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Meteorological Organization (IRIMO. In the first stage of research, the ratio of long term mean annual precipitation to evapotranspiration was calculated for each of the stations. For this purpose, the Penman-Montheis (FAO 56 method was selected for PET estimation. In the

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Luanhe River basin, China

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Wang, Yixuan; Zhang, Ting; Chen, Xu; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping

2018-02-01

The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought are investigated for Luanhe River basin, using monthly precipitation data from 26 stations covering the common period of 1958-2011. The spatial pattern of drought was assessed by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on 3- and 12-month time scales. In addition, annual SPI and seasonal SPIs (including spring SPI, summer SPI, autumn SPI, and winter SPI) were also defined and considered in this study to characterize seasonal and annual drought conditions, respectively. For all seven SPI cases, three distinctive sub-regions with different temporal evolutions of droughts are well identified, respectively, representing the southeast, middle, and northwest of the Luanhe River basin. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test with a trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) procedure and Sen's method were used to determine the temporal trends in the annual and seasonal SPI time series. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was employed for further detecting the periodical features of drought condition in each sub-region. Results of MK and Sen's tests show a general tendency of intensification in summer drought over the entire basin, while a significant mitigating trend in spring drought. On the whole, an aggravating trend of inter-annual drought is discovered across the basin. Based on the CWT, the drought variability in the basin is generally dominated by 16- to 64-month cycles, and the 2- to 6-year cycles appear to be obvious when concerned with annual and seasonal droughts. Furthermore, a cross wavelet analysis was performed to examine the possible links between the drought conditions and large-scale climate patterns. The teleconnections of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO show significant influences on the regional droughts principally concentrated in the 16- to 64-month period, maybe responsible for the physical causes of the cyclical behavior of drought occurrences. PDO and AMO also

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

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Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

Drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality

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Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest

The 2010 spring drought reduced primary productivity in southwestern China

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Zhang Li; Li Jing; Xiao Jingfeng; Wang Kun; Lei Liping; Guo Huadong

2012-01-01

Many parts of the world experience frequent and severe droughts. Summer drought can significantly reduce primary productivity and carbon sequestration capacity. The impacts of spring droughts, however, have received much less attention. A severe and sustained spring drought occurred in southwestern China in 2010. Here we examine the influence of this spring drought on the primary productivity of terrestrial ecosystems using data on climate, vegetation greenness and productivity. We first assess the spatial extent, duration and severity of the drought using precipitation data and the Palmer drought severity index. We then examine the impacts of the drought on terrestrial ecosystems using satellite data for the period 2000–2010. Our results show that the spring drought substantially reduced the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) during spring 2010 (March–May). Both EVI and GPP also substantially declined in the summer and did not fully recover from the drought stress until August. The drought reduced regional annual GPP and net primary productivity (NPP) in 2010 by 65 and 46 Tg C yr −1 , respectively. Both annual GPP and NPP in 2010 were the lowest over the period 2000–2010. The negative effects of the drought on annual primary productivity were partly offset by the remarkably high productivity in August and September caused by the exceptionally wet conditions in late summer and early fall and the farming practices adopted to mitigate drought effects. Our results show that, like summer droughts, spring droughts can also have significant impacts on vegetation productivity and terrestrial carbon cycling. (letter)

Analysis of magnitude and duration of floods and droughts in the context of climate change

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Eshetu Debele, Sisay; Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Strupczewski, Witold

2016-04-01

Research and scientific information are key elements of any decision-making process. There is also a strong need for tools to describe and compare in a concise way the regime of hydrological extreme events in the context of presumed climate change. To meet these demands, two complementary methods for estimating high and low-flow frequency characteristics are proposed. Both methods deal with duration and magnitude of extreme events. The first one "flow-duration-frequency" (known as QdF) has already been applied successfully to low-flow analysis, flood flows and rainfall intensity. The second one called "duration-flow-frequency" (DqF) was proposed by Strupczewski et al. in 2010 to flood frequency analysis. The two methods differ in the treatment of flow and duration. In the QdF method the duration (d-consecutive days) is a chosen fixed value and the frequency analysis concerns the annual or seasonal series of mean value of flows exceeded (in the case of floods) or non-exceeded (in the case of droughts) within d-day period. In the second method, DqF, the flows are treated as fixed thresholds and the duration of flows exceeding (floods) and non-exceeding (droughts) these thresholds are a subject of frequency analysis. The comparison of characteristics of floods and droughts in reference period and under future climate conditions for catchments studied within the CHIHE project is presented and a simple way to show the results to non-professionals and decision-makers is proposed. The work was undertaken within the project "Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Extremes (CHIHE)", which is supported by the Norway-Poland Grants Program administered by the Norwegian Research Council. The observed time series were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland. Strupczewski, W. G., Kochanek, K., Markiewicz, I., Bogdanowicz, E., Weglarczyk, S., & Singh V. P. (2010). On the Tails of Distributions of Annual Peak Flow. Hydrology Research, 42, 171

InfoDROUGHT: Technical reliability assessment using crop yield data at the Spanish-national level

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Contreras, Sergio; Garcia-León, David; Hunink, Johannes E.

2017-04-01

Drought monitoring (DM) is a key component of risk-centered drought preparedness plans and drought policies. InfoDROUGHT (www.infosequia.es) is a a site- and user-tailored and fully-integrated DM system which combines functionalities for: a) the operational satellite-based weekly-1km tracking of severity and spatial extent of drought impacts, b) the interactive and faster query and delivery of drought information through a web-mapping service. InfoDROUGHT has a flexible and modular structure. The calibration (threshold definitions) and validation of the system is performed by combining expert knowledge and auxiliary impact assessments and datasets. Different technical solutions (basic or advanced versions) or deployment options (open-standard or restricted-authenticated) can be purchased by end-users and customers according to their needs. In this analysis, the technical reliability of InfoDROUGHT and its performance for detecting drought impacts on agriculture has been evaluated in the 2003-2014 period by exploring and quantifying the relationships among the drought severity indices reported by InfoDROUGHT and the annual yield anomalies observed for different rainfed crops (maize, wheat, barley) at Spain. We hypothesize a positive relationship between the crop anomalies and the drought severity level detected by InfoDROUGHT. Annual yield anomalies were computed at the province administrative level as the difference between the annual yield reported by the Spanish Annual Survey of Crop Acreages and Yields (ESYRCE database) and the mean annual yield estimated during the study period. Yield anomalies were finally compared against drought greenness-based and thermal-based drought indices (VCI and TCI, respectively) to check the coherence of the outputs and the hypothesis stated. InfoDROUGHT has been partly funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competiveness through a Torres-Quevedo grant, and by the H2020-EU project "Bridging the Gap for Innovations in

Methods for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma

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Esralew, Rachel A.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2010-01-01

Flow statistics can be used to provide decision makers with surface-water information needed for activities such as water-supply permitting, flow regulation, and other water rights issues. Flow statistics could be needed at any location along a stream. Most often, streamflow statistics are needed at ungaged sites, where no flow data are available to compute the statistics. Methods are presented in this report for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma. Flow statistics included the (1) annual (period of record), (2) seasonal (summer-autumn and winter-spring), and (3) 12 monthly duration statistics, including the 20th, 50th, 80th, 90th, and 95th percentile flow exceedances, and the annual mean-flow (mean of daily flows for the period of record). Flow statistics were calculated from daily streamflow information collected from 235 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Oklahoma and areas in adjacent states. A drainage-area ratio method is the preferred method for estimating flow statistics at an ungaged location that is on a stream near a gage. The method generally is reliable only if the drainage-area ratio of the two sites is between 0.5 and 1.5. Regression equations that relate flow statistics to drainage-basin characteristics were developed for the purpose of estimating selected flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams that are not near gaging stations on the same stream. Regression equations were developed from flow statistics and drainage-basin characteristics for 113 unregulated gaging stations. Separate regression equations were developed by using U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in regions with similar drainage-basin characteristics. These equations can increase the accuracy of regression equations used for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics at ungaged stream locations in Oklahoma. Streamflow-gaging stations were grouped by selected drainage

Effect of Experimentally Manipulated Fire Regimes on the Response of Forests to Drought

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Refsland, T. K.; Knapp, B.; Fraterrigo, J.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase drought stress in many forests and alter fire regimes. Fire can reduce tree density and thus competition for limited water, but the effects of changing fire regimes on forest productivity during drought remain poorly understood. We measured the annual ring-widths of adult oak (Quercus spp.) trees in Mark Twain National Forest, Missouri USA that experienced unburned, annual or periodic (every 4 years) surface fire treatments from 1951 - 2015. Severe drought events were identified using the BILJOU water balance model. We determined the effect of fire treatment on stand-level annual growth rates as well as stand-level resistance and resilience to drought, defined as the drought-induced reduction in growth and post-drought recovery in growth, respectively. During favorable wet years, annual and periodic fire treatments reduced annual growth rates by approximately 10-15% relative to unburned controls (P burned stands during favorable wet years was likely caused by increased nitrogen (N) limitation in burned plots. After 60 years of treatment, burned plots experienced 30% declines in total soil N relative to unburned plots. Our finding that drought resistance and resilience were similar across all treatments suggest that fire-driven reductions in stand density may have negligible effects on soil moisture availability during drought. Our results highlight that climate-fire interactions can have important long-term effects on forest productivity.

Risk analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in the major grain-producing areas, China

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Zongtang Xie

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the assessment results, provincial drought disaster risk spatial distribution maps for each major grain-producing area in China were obtained. These risk patterns showed that the probability of drought fell when the annual drought-covered rate and the annual drought-affected rate increased, and that the high risk areas were located primarily in China's northern and central provinces. These results can provide the basis for the development of effective drought mitigation strategies which would be able to inform possible drought situations and allow for easier decision-making on drought resistance strategies. The fuzzy relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the drought-caused grain production losses provides vital information for the development of disaster compensation plans. Furthermore, the results of this study indicated that the proposed methods had superior detection stability and higher precision. We hope that by conducting such agricultural drought risk analysis, the results are able to provide the basis for the development of drought mitigation strategies to reduce future losses.

A phenological timetable of oak growth under experimental drought and air warming.

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Thomas M Kuster

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to increase temperature and decrease summer precipitation in Central Europe. Little is known about how warming and drought will affect phenological patterns of oaks, which are considered to possess excellent adaptability to these climatic changes. Here, we investigated bud burst and intra-annual shoot growth of Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens grown on two different forest soils and exposed to air warming and drought. Phenological development was assessed over the course of three growing seasons. Warming advanced bud burst by 1-3 days °C⁻¹ and led to an earlier start of intra-annual shoot growth. Despite this phenological shift, total time span of annual growth and shoot biomass were not affected. Drought changed the frequency and intensity of intra-annual shoot growth and advanced bud burst in the subsequent spring of a severe summer drought by 1-2 days. After re-wetting, shoot growth recovered within a few days, demonstrating the superior drought tolerance of this tree genus. Our findings show that phenological patterns of oaks are modified by warming and drought but also suggest that ontogenetic factors and/or limitations of water and nutrients counteract warming effects on the biomass and the entire span of annual shoot growth.

Drought analysis in the Tons River Basin, India during 1969-2008

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Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Gautam, Randhir; Kahya, Ercan

2018-05-01

The primary focus of this study is the analysis of droughts in the Tons River Basin during the period 1969-2008. Precipitation data observed at four gauging stations are used to identify drought over the study area. The event of drought is derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on a 3-month scale. Our results indicated that severe drought occurred in the Allahabad, Rewa, and Satna stations in the years 1973 and 1979. The droughts in this region had occurred mainly due to erratic behavior in monsoons, especially due to long breaks between monsoons. During the drought years, the deficiency of the annual rainfall in the analysis of annual rainfall departure had varied from -26% in 1976 to -60% in 1973 at Allahabad station in the basin. The maximum deficiency of annual and seasonal rainfall recorded in the basin is 60%. The maximum seasonal rainfall departure observed in the basin is in the order of -60% at Allahabad station in 1973, while maximum annual rainfall departure had been recorded as -60% during 1979 at the Satna station. Extreme dry events ( z score <-2) were detected during July, August, and September. Moreover, severe dry events were observed in August, September, and October. The drought conditions in the Tons River Basin are dominantly driven by total rainfall throughout the period between June and November.

A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics

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A. K. Fleig

2006-01-01

Full Text Available How drought is characterised depends on the purpose and region of the study and the available data. In case of regional applications or global comparison a standardisation of the methodology to characterise drought is preferable. In this study the threshold level method in combination with three common pooling procedures is applied to daily streamflow series from a wide range of hydrological regimes. Drought deficit characteristics, such as drought duration and deficit volume, are derived, and the methods are evaluated for their applicability for regional studies. Three different pooling procedures are evaluated: the moving-average procedure (MA-procedure, the inter-event time method (IT-method, and the sequent peak algorithm (SPA. The MA-procedure proved to be a flexible approach for the different series, and its parameter, the averaging interval, can easily be optimised for each stream. However, it modifies the discharge series and might introduce dependency between drought events. For the IT-method it is more difficult to find an optimal value for its parameter, the length of the excess period, in particular for flashy streams. The SPA can only be recommended as pooling procedure for the selection of annual maximum series of deficit characteristics and for very low threshold levels to ensure that events occurring shortly after major events are recognized. Furthermore, a frequency analysis of deficit volume and duration is conducted based on partial duration series of drought events. According to extreme value theory, excesses over a certain limit are Generalized Pareto (GP distributed. It was found that this model indeed performed better than or equally to other distribution models. In general, the GP-model could be used for streams of all regime types. However, for intermittent streams, zero-flow periods should be treated as censored data. For catchments with frost during the winter season, summer and winter droughts have to be analysed

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

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Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Impacts of droughts on carbon sequestration by China's terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2011

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Liu, Y.; Zhou, Y.; Ju, W.; Wang, S.; Wu, X.; He, M.; Zhu, G.

2014-05-01

In recent years, China's terrestrial ecosystems have experienced frequent droughts. How these droughts have affected carbon sequestration by the terrestrial ecosystems is still unclear. In this study, the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model, driven by remotely sensed vegetation parameters, was employed to assess the effects of droughts on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of terrestrial ecosystems in China from 2000 to 2011. Droughts of differing severity, as indicated by a standard precipitation index (SPI), hit terrestrial ecosystems in China extensively in 2001, 2006, 2009, and 2011. The national total annual NEP exhibited the slight decline of -11.3 Tg C yr-2 during the aforementioned years of extensive droughts. The NEP reduction ranged from 61.1 Tg C yr-1 to 168.8 Tg C yr-1. National and regional total NEP anomalies were correlated with the annual mean SPI, especially in Northwest China, North China, Central China, and Southwest China. The reductions in annual NEP in 2001 and 2011 might have been caused by a larger decrease in annual gross primary productivity (GPP) than in annual ecosystem respiration (ER). The reductions experienced in 2009 might be due to a decrease in annual GPP and an increase in annual ER, while reductions in 2006 could stem from a larger increase in ER than in GPP. The effects of droughts on NEP lagged up to 3-6 months, due to different responses of GPP and ER. In eastern China, where is humid and warm, droughts have predominant and short-term lagged influences on NEP. In western regions, cold and arid, the drought effects on NEP were relatively weaker but prone to lasting longer.

2000 Years of Drought Variability in Inner Asia from Tree Rings

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Hessl, A. E.; Pederson, N.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Leland, C.; Byambasuren, O.; Nachin, B.; Andreu-Hayles, L.

2015-12-01

Understanding connections between climate, ecosystems, and society during historical and modern climatic transitions requires annual resolution records with high fidelity climate signals. In semi-arid regions, high temperatures are projected to increase the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts in coming decades. Between 1996-2014, Mongolia experienced an extended drought that coincided with a transition away from pastoralism as thousands of families lost their herds and migrated to informal urban settlements. Because Mongolia's climate is highly variable, it is difficult to place recent climatic extremes and associated social and ecological change in context without long records of climatic variability. Here we ask: how extreme was the 21st century drought in the last 2000 years? We present two 2000 year long tree-ring reconstructions of warm-season drought, derived from live and dead Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees from two lava flows in central Mongolia. Trees growing on the lava today are stunted and widely spaced, occurring on microsites with little to no soil development. These trees are water-stressed and their radial growth is correlated with both soil water availability (scPDSI) and grassland productivity (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)). To contextualize the severity of recent droughts and to explore potential forcing factors, we compare recent drought persistence to the distribution of events in the past and perform long control runs of GFDL climate model. Our reconstructions, calibrated and validated on instrumental June-August scPDSI (1959-2009) account for >55% of the variability in the regional scPDSI when >70% of the annual rainfall occurs. Our tree-ring data combined with existing reconstructions of temperature, meteorological data, and model results suggest that the early 21st century drought was the hottest and one of the most persistent droughts in the last 2000 years. These dry conditions were occurred with

Drought variability and change across the Iberian Peninsula

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Coll, J. R.; Aguilar, E.; Ashcroft, L.

2017-11-01

Drought variability and change was assessed across the Iberian Peninsula over more than 100 years expanding through the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 24 Iberian time series were quality controlled and homogenized to create the Monthly Iberian Temperature and Precipitation Series (MITPS) for the period 1906-2010. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), driven only by precipitation, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on the difference between the precipitation and the reference evapotranspiration (ET0), were computed at annual and seasonal scale to describe the evolution of droughts across time. The results confirmed that a clear temperature increase has occurred over the entire Iberian Peninsula at the annual and seasonal scale, but no significant changes in precipitation accumulated amounts were found. Similar drought variability was provided by the SPI and SPEI, although the SPEI showed greater drought severity and larger surface area affected by drought than SPI from 1980s to 2010 due to the increase in atmospheric evaporative demand caused by increased temperatures. Moreover, a clear drying trend was found by the SPEI for most of the Iberian Peninsula at annual scale and also for spring and summer, although the SPI did not experience significant changes in drought conditions. From the drying trend identified for most of the Iberian Peninsula along the twentieth century, an increase in drought conditions can also be expected for this region in the twenty-first century according to future climate change projections and scenarios.

Hydrological River Drought Analysis (Case Study: Lake Urmia Basin Rivers

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Mohammad Nazeri Tahrudi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Drought from the hydrological viewpoint is a continuation of the meteorological drought that cause of the lack of surface water such as rivers, lakes, reservoirs and groundwater resources. This analysis, which is generally on the surface streams, reservoirs, lakes and groundwater, takes place as hydrological drought considered and studied. So the data on the quantity of flow of the rivers in this study is of fundamental importance. This data are included, level, flow, river flow is no term (5. Overall the hydrological drought studies are focused on annual discharges, maximum annual discharge or minimum discharge period. The most importance of this analysis is periodically during the course of the analysis remains a certain threshold and subthresholdrunoff volume fraction has created. In situations where water for irrigation or water of a river without any reservoir, is not adequate, the minimum flow analysis, the most important factor to be considered (4. The aim of this study is evaluatingthe statistical distributions of drought volume rivers data from the Urmia Lake’s rivers and its return period. Materials and Methods: Urmia Lake is a biggest and saltiest continued lake in Iran. The Lake Urmia basin is one of the most important basins in Iran region which is located in the North West of Iran. With an extent of 52700 square kilometers and an area equivalent to 3.21% of the total area of the country, This basin is located between the circuit of 35 degrees 40 minutes to 38 degrees 29 minutes north latitude and the meridian of 44 degrees 13 minutes to 47 degrees 53 minutes east longitude. In this study used the daily discharge data (m3s-1 of Urmia Lake Rivers. Extraction of river drought volume The drought durations were extracted from the daily discharge of 13 studied stations. The first mean year was calculated for each 365 days using the Eq 1 (14. (1 (For i=1,2,3,…,365 That Ki is aith mean year, Yijis ith day discharge in jth

An improved method for standardized mapping of drought conditions

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Frank H. Koch; William D. Smith; John W. Coulston

2013-01-01

Virtually all U.S. forests experience droughts, although the intensity and frequency of the droughts vary widely between, as well as, within forest ecosystems (Hanson and Weltzin 2000). Generally, forests throughout the Western United States are subject to annual seasonal droughts, while forests in the Eastern United States can be characterized by one of two...

Water Use Efficiency of China's Terrestrial Ecosystems and Responses to Drought

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Liu, Y.; Xiao, J.; Ju, W.; Zhou, Y.; Wang, S.; Wu, X.

2015-12-01

Yibo Liu1, 2, Jingfeng Xiao2, Weimin Ju3, Yanlian Zhou4, Shaoqiang Wang5, Xiaocui Wu31 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China, 2Earth Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA, 3 International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China, 4 School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China, 5 Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China Water use efficiency (WUE) measures the trade-off between carbon gain and water loss of terrestrial ecosystems, and better understanding its dynamics and controlling factors is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. We assessed the magnitude, spatial patterns, and trends of WUE of China's terrestrial ecosystems and its responses to drought using a process-based ecosystem model. During the period from 2000 to 2011, the national average annual WUE (net primary productivity (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of China was 0.79 g C kg-1 H2O. Annual WUE decreased in the southern regions because of the decrease in NPP and increase in ET and increased in most northern regions mainly because of the increase in NPP. Droughts usually increased annual WUE in Northeast China and central Inner Mongolia but decreased annual WUE in central China. "Turning-points" were observed for southern China where moderate and extreme drought reduced annual WUE and severe drought slightly increased annual WUE. The cumulative lagged effect of drought on monthly WUE varied by region. Our findings have implications for ecosystem management and climate policy making. WUE is expected to continue to change under future climate

Hydrologic drought of water year 2011 compared to four major drought periods of the 20th century in Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Shivers, Molly J.; Andrews, William J.

2013-01-01

Water year 2011 (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2011) was a year of hydrologic drought (based on streamflow) in Oklahoma and the second-driest year to date (based on precipitation) since 1925. Drought conditions worsened substantially in the summer, with the highest monthly average temperature record for all States being broken by Oklahoma in July (89.1 degrees Fahrenheit), June being the second hottest and August being the hottest on record for those months for the State since 1895. Drought conditions continued into the fall, with all of the State continuing to be in severe to exceptional drought through the end of September. In addition to effects on streamflow and reservoirs, the 2011 drought increased damage from wildfires, led to declarations of states of emergency, water-use restrictions, and outdoor burning bans; caused at least $2 billion of losses in the agricultural sector and higher prices for food and other agricultural products; caused losses of tourism and wildlife; reduced hydropower generation; and lowered groundwater levels in State aquifers. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, conducted an investigation to compare the severity of the 2011 drought with four previous major hydrologic drought periods during the 20th century – water years 1929–41, 1952–56, 1961–72, and 1976–81. The period of water years 1925–2011 was selected as the period of record because few continuous record streamflow-gaging stations existed before 1925, and gaps in time existed where no streamflow-gaging stations were operated before 1925. In water year 2011, statewide annual precipitation was the 2d lowest, statewide annual streamflow was 16th lowest, and statewide annual runoff was 42d lowest of those 87 years of record. Annual area-averaged precipitation totals by the nine National Weather Service climate divisions from water year 2011 were compared to those during four previous major hydrologic drought

The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

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G. Laaha

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by drought. In this paper, we analyze the hydrological footprint (dynamic development over space and time of the drought of 2015 in terms of both severity (magnitude and spatial extent and compare it to the extreme drought of 2003. Analyses are based on a range of low flow and hydrological drought indices derived for about 800 streamflow records across Europe, collected in a community effort based on a common protocol. We compare the hydrological footprints of both events with the meteorological footprints, in order to learn from similarities and differences of both perspectives and to draw conclusions for drought management. The region affected by hydrological drought in 2015 differed somewhat from the drought of 2003, with its center located more towards eastern Europe. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region surrounding the Czech Republic was the most affected, with summer low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical center of the event was in southern Germany, where the drought lasted a particularly long time. A detailed spatial and temporal assessment of the 2015 event showed that the particular behavior in these regions was partly a result of diverging wetness preconditions in the studied catchments. Extreme droughts emerged where preconditions were particularly dry. In regions with wet preconditions, low flow events developed later and tended to be less severe. For both the 2003 and 2015 events, the onset of the hydrological drought was well correlated with the lowest flow recorded during the event (low flow magnitude, pointing towards a potential for early warning of the severity of streamflow drought. Time series of monthly drought indices (both streamflow- and climate-based indices showed that meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time, both in terms of extent and severity

Drought-related tree mortality in drought-resistant semi-arid Aleppo pine forest

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Preisler, Yakir; Grünzweig, José M.; Rotenberg, Eyal; Rohatyn, Shani; Yakir, Dan

2014-05-01

The frequency and intensity of drought events are expected to increase as part of global climate change. In fact, drought related tree mortality had become a widespread phenomenon in forests around the globe in the past decades. This study was conducted at the Yatir FLUXNET site, located in a 45 years old Pinus halepensis dominated forest that successfully sustained low mean annual precipitation (276mm) and extended seasonal droughts (up to 340 days between rain events). However, five recent non-consecutive drought years led to enhanced tree mortality in 2010 (5-10% of the forest population, which was not observed hitherto). The Tree mortality was characterized by patchiness, showing forest zones with either >80% mortality or no mortality at all. Areas of healthy trees were associated with deeper root distribution and increased stoniness (soil pockets & cracks). To help identify possible causes of the increased mortality and its patterns, four tree stress levels were identified based on visual appearance, and studied in more detail. This included examining from spring 2011 to summer 2013 the local trees density, root distribution, annual growth rings, needle length and chlorophyll content, rates of leaf gas exchange, and branch predawn water potential. Tree phenotypic stress level correlated with the leaf predawn water potential (-1.8 and -3.0 in healthy and stressed trees, respectively), which likely reflected tree-scale water availability. These below ground characteristics were also associated, in turn, with higher rate of assimilation (3.5 and 0.8 μmol CO2 m-2s1 in healthy and stress trees, respectively), longer needles (8.2cm and 3.4 cm in healthy and stressed trees, respectively). Annual ring widths showed differences between stress classes, with stressed trees showing 30% narrower rings on average than unstressed trees. Notably, decline in annual ring widths could be identified in currently dead or severely stressed trees 15-20 years prior to mortality or

Implications of vegetation hydraulic capacitance as an indicator of water stress and drought recovery

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Matheny, A. M.; Bohrer, G.

2017-12-01

Above-ground water storage in vegetation plays an integral role in the avoidance of hydraulic impairment to transpiration. New high temporal resolution measurements of dynamic changes in tree hydraulic capacitance are facilitating insights into vegetation water use strategies. Diurnal withdrawal from water storage in leaves, branches, stems, and roots significantly impacts sap flow, stomatal conductance, and transpiration. The ability to store and use water varies based on soil- and root-water availability, tree size, wood vessel anatomy and density, and stomatal response strategy (i.e. isohydricity). We present results from a three-year long study of stem capacitance dynamics in five species in a mixed deciduous forest in Michigan. The site receives 800mm of rainfall annually, but water potential in the well-drained sandy soil nears the permanent wilting point several times annually. We demonstrate radical differences in stored water use between drought tolerant and intolerant species. Red maple, a drought intolerant, isohydric species, showed a strong dependence on stem capacitance for transpiration during both wet and dry periods. Red oak, a more drought hearty, deep rooted, anisohydric species, was much less reliant on withdrawal from water storage during all conditions. During well-watered conditions, withdrawal from storage by red maple was 10 kg day-1, yet storage withdrawal from similarly sized red oaks was 1 kg day-1. Red oaks only drew strongly upon stored water during the driest extremes. Metrics of hydration status derived from capacitance provide a means to explore drought response and recovery. Declines in consecutive days' maximum capacitance indicate an inability to restore lost water and can be used to mark the onset of water stress. Drought recovery can be quantified as the time required for stem water content to return to pre-drought volumes. Capacitance withdrawal and depletion exhibit a clear threshold response to declining soil water

Analysis of meteorological drought for Dagua river basin, Valle del Cauca, Colombia

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Nathalia González López

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Context: Extreme climatic events causes great challenges for social, economic and environmental sustainability of a region. Droughts affect agricultural activities significantly thus endangering the livelihoods and food security of rural populations, this is especially crucial for developing countries. The objective of this study is to characterize meteorological drought in Dagua river basin, Valle del Cauca. Method:  Intensity, magnitude, duration and frequency of drought events was estimated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, for semi-annual and annual groupings with records of 19 stations, during the period 1982-2011 Results: At least one drought was identified in each series; the area near to the subxerofític Basin region, exhibits more frequency of extremely strong drought and lower threshold of minimum precipitation; the largest percentage of spatial coverage of drought coincides with El Niño phenomena events, such as those that occurred in 91-92 to 09-10. Conclusions: The results obtained provide an approach for prediction and characterization of drought, and offer inputs to generate strategies for planning and mitigation of their impacts.

Drought monitoring in the Seybouse basin (Algeria over the last decades

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Khezazna Amina

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Algeria is amongst the African countries most affected by climate change impacts especially by drought which caused considerable economic losses in the past decades. In this paper, drought monitoring for the period between 1970 and 2011 was conducted in the Seybouse watershed by analysing annual rainfall data in terms of variability and trends along with the calculation of the standardized precipitation index (SPI. The results indicated important inter-annual rainfall fluctuation and a significant increasing trend. The estimated drought indices indicated that the Seybouse watershed experienced in the past a long dry period with a moderate severity followed by a long wet period at the majority of the study area. Moreover, the interpolation of the standardized precipitation indices (SPI on the entire Seybouse basin in GIS allowed visualizing and evaluating the spatial-temporal evolution of drought in the region which should help the decision-makers in the management of water resources, agriculture and other activities that may be affected by drought.

Chapter4 - Drought patterns in the conterminous United States and Hawaii.

Science.gov (United States)

Frank H. Koch; William D. Smith; John W. Coulston

2014-01-01

Droughts are common in virtually all U.S. forests, but their frequency and intensity vary widely both between and within forest ecosystems (Hanson and Weltzin 2000). Forests in the Western United States generally exhibit a pattern of annual seasonal droughts. Forests in the Eastern United States tend to exhibit one of two prevailing patterns: random occasional droughts...

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

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Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

Influence of Flow Sequencing Attributed to Climate Change and Climate Variability on the Assessment of Water-dependent Ecosystem Outcomes

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Wang, J.; Nathan, R.; Horne, A.

2017-12-01

Traditional approaches to characterize water-dependent ecosystem outcomes in response to flow have been based on time-averaged hydrological indicators, however there is increasing recognition for the need to characterize ecological processes that are highly dependent on the sequencing of flow conditions (i.e. floods and droughts). This study considers the representation of flow regimes when considering assessment of ecological outcomes, and in particular, the need to account for sequencing and variability of flow. We conducted two case studies - one in the largely unregulated Ovens River catchment and one in the highly regulated Murray River catchment (both located in south-eastern Australia) - to explore the importance of flow sequencing to the condition of a typical long-lived ecological asset in Australia, the River Red Gum forests. In the first, the Ovens River case study, the implications of representing climate change using different downscaling methods (annual scaling, monthly scaling, quantile mapping, and weather generator method) on the sequencing of flows and resulting ecological outcomes were considered. In the second, the Murray River catchment, sequencing within a historic drought period was considered by systematically making modest adjustments on an annual basis to the hydrological records. In both cases, the condition of River Red Gum forests was assessed using an ecological model that incorporates transitions between ecological conditions in response to sequences of required flow components. The results of both studies show the importance of considering how hydrological alterations are represented when assessing ecological outcomes. The Ovens case study showed that there is significant variation in the predicted ecological outcomes when different downscaling techniques are applied. Similarly, the analysis in the Murray case study showed that the drought as it historically occurred provided one of the best possible outcomes for River Red Gum

Cyclic electron flow, NPQ and photorespiration are crucial for the establishment of young plants of Ricinus communis and Jatropha curcas exposed to drought.

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Lima Neto, M C; Cerqueira, J V A; da Cunha, J R; Ribeiro, R V; Silveira, J A G

2017-07-01

Although plant physiological responses to drought have been widely studied, the interaction between photoprotection, photorespiration and antioxidant metabolism in water-stressed plants is scarcely addressed. This study aimed to evaluate the physiological adjustments preserving photosynthesis and growth in two plant species with different tolerance to drought: Jatropha curcas and Ricinus communis. We measured stress indicators, gas exchange, photochemistry of PSII and PSI, antioxidant enzymes, cyclic electron flow and photorespiration. Physiological stress indicators associated with reduction in growth confirmed R. communis as sensitive and J. curcas as tolerant to drought. Drought induced loss of photosynthesis in R. communis, whereas J. curcas maintained higher leaf gas exchange and photochemistry under drought. In addition, J. curcas showed higher dissipation of excess energy and presented higher cyclic electron flow when exposed to drought. Although none of these mechanisms have been triggered in R. communis, this species showed increases in photorespiration. R. communis displayed loss of Rubisco content while the Rubisco relative abundance did not change in J. curcas under drought. Accordingly, the in vivo maximum Rubisco carboxylation rate (V cmax ) and the maximum photosynthetic electron transport rate driving RuBP regeneration (J max ) were less affected in J. curcas. Both species displayed an efficient antioxidant mechanism by increasing activities of ascorbate peroxidase (APX) and superoxide dismutase (SOD). Overall, we suggest that the modulation of different photoprotective mechanisms is crucial to mitigate the effects caused by excess energy, maintaining photosynthetic apparatus efficiency and promoting the establishment of young plants of these two species under drought. © 2017 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Long-range hydrometeorological ensemble predictions of drought parameters

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Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

2012-06-01

Low streamflow as consequence of a drought event affects numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that may be impacted by drought are, e.g. power production, agriculture, tourism and water quality management. Numerical models have increasingly been used to forecast low-flow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the low-flow indices duration, severity and magnitude, with a forecast lead-time of one month, to assess their potential usefulness for predictions. The ECMWF VarEPS 5 member reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification shows that, compared to peak flow, probabilistic low-flow forecasts are skillful for longer lead-times, low-flow index forecasts could also be beneficially included in a decision-making process. The results suggest monthly runoff forecasts are useful for accessing the risk of hydrological droughts.

Low-flow characteristics of streams in South Carolina

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Feaster, Toby D.; Guimaraes, Wladmir B.

2017-09-22

An ongoing understanding of streamflow characteristics of the rivers and streams in South Carolina is important for the protection and preservation of the State’s water resources. Information concerning the low-flow characteristics of streams is especially important during critical flow periods, such as during the historic droughts that South Carolina has experienced in the past few decades.Between 2008 and 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, updated low-flow statistics at 106 continuous-record streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey for the eight major river basins in South Carolina. The low-flow frequency statistics included the annual minimum 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day mean flows with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 50 years, depending on the length of record available at the streamflow-gaging station. Computations of daily mean flow durations for the 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 75-, 90-, and 95-percent probability of exceedance also were included.This report summarizes the findings from publications generated during the 2008 to 2016 investigations. Trend analyses for the annual minimum 7-day average flows are provided as well as trend assessments of long-term annual precipitation data. Statewide variability in the annual minimum 7-day average flow is assessed at eight long-term (record lengths from 55 to 78 years) streamgages. If previous low-flow statistics were available, comparisons with the updated annual minimum 7-day average flow, having a 10-year recurrence interval, were made. In addition, methods for estimating low-flow statistics at ungaged locations near a gaged location are described.

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

2018-01-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

Extreme Drought Events Revealed in Amazon Tree Ring Records

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Jenkins, H. S.; Baker, P. A.; Guilderson, T. P.

2010-12-01

The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global hydrologic circulation. Yet despite its significance, a full understanding of Amazon rainfall variability remains elusive due to a poor historical record of climate. Temperate tree rings have been used extensively to reconstruct climate over the last thousand years, however less attention has been given to the application of dendrochronology in tropical regions, in large part due to a lower frequency of tree species known to produce annual rings. Here we present a tree ring record of drought extremes from the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru over the last 190 years. We confirm that tree ring growth in species Cedrela odorata is annual and show it to be well correlated with wet season precipitation. This correlation is used to identify extreme dry (and wet) events that have occurred in the past. We focus on drought events identified in the record as drought frequency is expected to increase over the Amazon in a warming climate. The Cedrela chronology records historic Amazon droughts of the 20th century previously identified in the literature and extends the record of drought for this region to the year 1816. Our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme drought (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) since the turn of the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated.

Inter-annual rainfall variability and droughts occurrence during ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study examined the trends of rainfall and the intensity of drought during sowing season and mid-season of rice farming calendar in the rainforest belt of Nigeria using data spanning 52 years (1961-2012) for five synoptic weather stations. The trends were investigated using simple linear regression and second order ...

Drought, Frost, Rain and Sunshine. Four Years of Sap Flow Measurements for One of the World's Largest Conifers

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Macinnis-Ng, C.; Taylor, D. T.; Kaplick, J.; Clearwater, M.

2015-12-01

Amongst the largest and longest lived conifers in the world, the endemic New Zealand kauri, Agathis australis, provides a proxy-climate record dating back 4000 y. Tree-ring widths provide a strong indicator of the occurrence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. We are measuring physiological processes, including carbon uptake and loss, leaf-scale gas exchange and sap flow together with meteorological data to explore the mechanisms of the climate response of this iconic and culturally significant species. In this continuous 15 min time interval sap flow dataset spanning four years, we have captured very wet and very dry summer periods. Winter flow rates peaked lower than summer flow rates and winter flow also started later and finished earlier in the day, resulting in less water use. Larger, canopy dominant trees (DBH up to 176 cm) had large sapwood area (sapwood depth up to 18 cm) and faster flow rates and therefore dominated stand water use. During dry periods, smaller trees (DBH 20-80 cm) were more responsive to dry soils than larger trees, suggesting access to deeper soil water stores. Leaf-scale gas exchange rates were low with very low stomatal conductance values reflecting known vulnerability to xylem embolism. Night-time refilling of sapwood was particularly evident during the summer drought with evidence that refilling was incomplete as the drought progressed. Photosynthetically active radiation and vapour pressure deficit are strongly correlated with sap flow across all seasons, a promising indicator for future modelling work on this dataset. Water saving strategies and stand-scale water budgets are discussed.

Risk analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in the major grain-producing areas, China

OpenAIRE

Zongtang Xie; Jiuping Xu; Yanfei Deng

2016-01-01

The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the asse...

Exceptional Drought and Unconventional Energy Production

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Reid B. Stevens

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The hydraulic fracturing boom in Texas required massive water flows. Beginning in the summer of 2011, water became scarce as a prolonged heat wave and subsequent severe drought spread across the state. Oil and gas producers working in drought areas needed to purchase expensive local water or transport water from a non-drought county far from the drill site. In response to decreased water availability in drought areas, these producers completed fewer wells and completed wells that used less water. This decrease in well-level water use had a measurable effect on the amount of oil and gas produced by wells completed during exceptional conditions.

Drought, climate change and vegetation response in the succulent karoo, South Africa

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M. T. Hoffman

2009-12-01

Full Text Available For the winter-rainfall region of South Africa, the frequency of drought is predicted to increase over the next 100 years, with dire consequences for the vegetation of this biodiversity hotspot. We analysed historical 20th century rainfall records for six rainfall stations within the succulent karoo biome to determine if the signal of increasing drought frequency is already apparent, and whether mean annual rainfall is decreasing. We found no evidence for a decrease either in mean annual rainfall or in the incidence of drought, as measured by the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI over the 20th century. Evidence points to a drying trend from 1900–1950 while no significant trend in rainfall and drought was found at most stations from 1951–2000. In a second analysis we synthesised the information concerning the response of adult succulent karoo biome plants and seedlings to extended drought conditions. General findings are that responses to drought differ between species, and that longevity is an important life history trait related to drought survival. Growth form is a poor predictor of drought response across the biome. There was a range of responses to drought among adult plants of various growth forms, and among non-succulent seedlings. Leaf-succulent seedlings, however, exhibited phenomenal drought resistance, the majority surviving drought long after all the experimentally comparative non-succulent seedlings had died. Our synthesis showed that previous studies on the impact of drought on succulent karoo biome plants differ greatly in terms of their location, sampling design, measured values and plant responses. A suite of coordinated long-term field observations, experiments and models are therefore needed to assess the response of succulent karoo biome species to key drought events as they occur over time and to integrate this information into conservation planning.

Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Tijdeman, Erik; Hannaford, Jamie; Stahl, Kerstin

2018-02-01

Human influences can affect streamflow drought characteristics and propagation. The question is where, when and why? To answer these questions, the impact of different human influences on streamflow droughts were assessed in England and Wales, across a broad range of climate and catchments conditions. We used a dataset consisting of catchments with near-natural flow as well as catchments for which different human influences have been indicated in the metadata (Factors Affecting Runoff) of the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA). A screening approach was applied on the streamflow records to identify human-influenced records with drought characteristics that deviated from those found for catchments with near-natural flow. Three different deviations were considered, specifically deviations in (1) the relationship between streamflow drought duration and the base flow index, BFI (specifically, BFIHOST, the BFI predicted from the hydrological properties of soils), (2) the correlation between streamflow and precipitation and (3) the temporal occurrence of streamflow droughts compared to precipitation droughts, i.e. an increase or decrease in streamflow drought months relative to precipitation drought months over the period of record. The identified deviations were then related to the indicated human influences. Results showed that the majority of catchments for which human influences were indicated did not show streamflow drought characteristics that deviated from those expected under near-natural conditions. For the catchments that did show deviating streamflow drought characteristics, prolonged streamflow drought durations were found in some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions. Weaker correlations between streamflow and precipitation were found for some of the catchments with reservoirs, water transfers or groundwater augmentation schemes. An increase in streamflow drought occurrence towards the end of their records was found for some of the

Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Tijdeman

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Human influences can affect streamflow drought characteristics and propagation. The question is where, when and why? To answer these questions, the impact of different human influences on streamflow droughts were assessed in England and Wales, across a broad range of climate and catchments conditions. We used a dataset consisting of catchments with near-natural flow as well as catchments for which different human influences have been indicated in the metadata (Factors Affecting Runoff of the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA. A screening approach was applied on the streamflow records to identify human-influenced records with drought characteristics that deviated from those found for catchments with near-natural flow. Three different deviations were considered, specifically deviations in (1 the relationship between streamflow drought duration and the base flow index, BFI (specifically, BFIHOST, the BFI predicted from the hydrological properties of soils, (2 the correlation between streamflow and precipitation and (3 the temporal occurrence of streamflow droughts compared to precipitation droughts, i.e. an increase or decrease in streamflow drought months relative to precipitation drought months over the period of record. The identified deviations were then related to the indicated human influences. Results showed that the majority of catchments for which human influences were indicated did not show streamflow drought characteristics that deviated from those expected under near-natural conditions. For the catchments that did show deviating streamflow drought characteristics, prolonged streamflow drought durations were found in some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions. Weaker correlations between streamflow and precipitation were found for some of the catchments with reservoirs, water transfers or groundwater augmentation schemes. An increase in streamflow drought occurrence towards the end of their records was found for

Multi-decadal Hydrological Retrospective: Case study of Amazon floods and droughts

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Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Collischonn, Walter

2017-06-01

Recently developed methodologies such as climate reanalysis make it possible to create a historical record of climate systems. This paper proposes a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), which essentially simulates large rainfall datasets, using this as input into hydrological models to develop a record of past hydrology, making it possible to analyze past floods and droughts. We developed a methodology for the Amazon basin, where studies have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in recent decades. We used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) as input for a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH). HR products were then validated against several in situ discharge gauges controlling the main Amazon sub-basins, focusing on maximum and minimum events. For the most accurate HR, based on performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts, comparing the results with in-situ observations. A statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and droughts in the entire Amazon basin. Results indicate that HR could represent most past extreme events well, compared with in-situ observed data, and was consistent with many events reported in literature. Because of their flow duration, some minor regional events were not reported in literature but were captured by HR. To represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events, we believe it is feasible to use some large precipitation datasets such as i) climate reanalysis, which is mainly based on a land surface component, and ii) datasets based on merged products. A significant upward trend in intensity was seen in maximum annual discharge (related to floods) in western and northwestern regions and for minimum annual discharge (related to droughts) in south and central-south regions of the Amazon basin. Because of the global coverage of rainfall datasets

Assessing extreme droughts in North-East Spain from rogation ceremonies

Science.gov (United States)

Cuadrat, José M.; Barriendos, Mariano; Tejedor, Ernesto; Ángel Saz, Miguel; Serrano, Roberto

2014-05-01

Among the different meteorological hazards, droughts are those with the highest socio-economical impact on the Iberian Peninsula. In the present work, drought events that occurred in North-East Spain during the period 1600-1900 have been analysed, using historical information. The abundant documentation available in historical archives and the detail of the meteorological event records allows us the systematic and continuous summary of the drought events from 16th to 19th centuries. Rogation (ceremonies to ask God for rain: pro-pluvia, or to stop raining: pro-serenitate) analysis is an effective method to derive information about climate extremes from documentary sources. These documents are homogeneous information that permit the reconstruction of drought frequency series and create continuous drought indices. Weighted annual sum by levels has been a widespread technique to analyze such data but this analysis is liable to be biased to spring values as these ceremonies are strongly related to farming activities and crop development. The analysis of the length of pro-pluvia periods (the time span during which rogations are carried out in relation to a drought event) and the combination of annual and seasonal information offers a more objective criterion for the analysis of the drought periods and an increase in the resolution of the study. Two drought maxima appear during the 1650-1675 and 1765-1795 periods, characterized by rogations during almost all the year, with a middle stage (1676-1710) when droughts were less frequent and their length shortened. Results indicate that drought evolution during the past four centuries often coincides in time with the evolution recorded in other Mediterranean areas. Between the sixteenth and nineteenth centuries the most important droughts were recorded in the last quarter of the eighteenth century, which coincided with a period of high climatic variability known as the "Maldá" anomaly. In general, the eighteenth century was

A new drought tipping point for conifer mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Kolb, Thomas E.

2015-03-01

(Huang et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 024011) present a method for predicting mortality of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) in the Southwestern US during severe drought based on the relationship between the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and annual tree ring growth. Ring growth was zero when SPEI for September to July was -1.64. The threshold SPEI of -1.64 was successful in distinguishing areas with high tree mortality during recent severe drought from areas with low mortality, and is proposed to be a tipping point of drought severity leading to tree mortality. Below, I discuss this work in more detail.

Evidence for increasingly variable Palmer Drought Severity Index in the United States since 1895.

Science.gov (United States)

Rayne, Sierra; Forest, Kaya

2016-02-15

Annual and summertime trends towards increasingly variable values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over a sub-decadal period (five years) were investigated within the contiguous United States between 1895 and the present. For the contiguous United States as a whole, there is a significant increasing trend in the five-year running minimum-maximum ranges for the annual PDSI (aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range)). During this time frame, the average aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) has increased by about one full unit, indicating a substantial increase in drought variability over short time scales across the United States. The end members of the running aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) highlight even more rapid changes in the drought index variability within the past 120 years. This increasing variability in the aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) is driven primarily by changes taking place in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean coastal climate regions, climate regions which collectively comprise one-third the area of the contiguous United States. Similar trends were found for the annual and summertime Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI), and the Palmer Z Index (PZI). Overall, interannual drought patterns in the contiguous United States are becoming more extreme and difficult to predict, posing a challenge to agricultural and other water-resource related planning efforts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production

Science.gov (United States)

Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J.

2017-08-01

Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980-2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001-2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25-45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops.

Canopy Transpiration and Stomatal Responses to Prolonged Drought by a Dominant Desert Species in Central Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daxing Gu

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In arid and semiarid lands, canopy transpiration and its dynamics depend largely on stomatal sensitivity to drought. In this study, the sap flow of a dominant species, Haloxylon ammodendron growing in Central Asian deserts, was monitored using Granier-type sensors, from which the canopy stomatal conductance was derived. The responses of canopy transpiration and stomatal conductance to environmental variables during the second half of the growing season, when annual prolonged drought occurred, was analyzed for four continuous years, from 2013 to 2016. A soil water content (SWC of 3% was identified as the lower soil water threshold for this species, below which the plant lost the ability for stomatal regulation on water loss and suffered the risk of mortality. Above this threshold, the sensitivity of canopy transpiration to vapor pressure deficit, VPD (K, was linearly correlated with SWC, which mainly resulted from different stomatal behaviors at varying drought intensities. Stomatal sensitivity to VPD (m/Gsref increased linearly with soil moisture deficit, inducing a shift from more anisohydric to a more isohydric stomatal behavior. The flexibility of stomatal behavior regarding soil drought was one key element facilitating the survival of H. ammodendron in such an extreme dry environment.

Adaptive transgenerational plasticity in an annual plant: grandparental and parental drought stress enhance performance of seedlings in dry soil.

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Jacob J; Sultan, Sonia E; Horgan-Kobelski, Tim; Riggs, Charlotte

2012-07-01

Stressful parental (usually maternal) environments can dramatically influence expression of traits in offspring, in some cases resulting in phenotypes that are adaptive to the inducing stress. The ecological and evolutionary impact of such transgenerational plasticity depends on both its persistence across generations and its adaptive value. Few studies have examined both aspects of transgenerational plasticity within a given system. Here we report the results of a growth-chamber study of adaptive transgenerational plasticity across two generations, using the widespread annual plant Polygonum persicaria as a naturally evolved model system. We grew five inbred Polygonum genetic lines in controlled dry vs. moist soil environments for two generations in a fully factorial design, producing replicate individuals of each genetic line with all permutations of grandparental and parental environment. We then measured the effects of these two-generational stress histories on traits critical for functioning in dry soil, in a third (grandchild) generation of seedling offspring raised in the dry treatment. Both grandparental and parental moisture environment significantly influenced seedling development: seedlings of drought-stressed grandparents or parents produced longer root systems that extended deeper and faster into dry soil compared with seedlings of the same genetic lines whose grandparents and/or parents had been amply watered. Offspring of stressed individuals also grew to a greater biomass than offspring of nonstressed parents and grandparents. Importantly, the effects of drought were cumulative over the course of two generations: when both grandparents and parents were drought-stressed, offspring had the greatest provisioning, germinated earliest, and developed into the largest seedlings with the most extensive root systems. Along with these functionally appropriate developmental effects, seedlings produced after two previous drought-stressed generations had

From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010-11 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazonas River and tributaries

Science.gov (United States)

Carlo Espinoza, Jhan; Ronchail, Josyane; Loup Guyot, Jean; Junquas, Clementine; Drapeau, Guillaume; Martinez, Jean Michel; Santini, William; Vauchel, Philippe; Lavado, Waldo; Ordoñez, Julio; Espinoza, Raúl

2012-06-01

In this work we document and analyze the hydrological annual cycles characterized by a rapid transition between low and high flows in the Amazonas River (Peruvian Amazon) and we show how these events, which may impact vulnerable riverside residents, are related to regional climate variability. Our analysis is based on comprehensive discharge, rainfall and average suspended sediment data sets. Particular attention is paid to the 2010-11 hydrological year, when an unprecedented abrupt transition from the extreme September 2010 drought (8300 m3 s-1) to one of the four highest discharges in April 2011 (49 500 m3 s-1) was recorded at Tamshiyacu (Amazonas River). This unusual transition is also observed in average suspended sediments. Years with a rapid increase in discharge are characterized by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during austral summer, corresponding to a La Niña-like mode. It originates a geopotential height wave train over the subtropical South Pacific and southeastern South America, with a negative anomaly along the southern Amazon and the southeastern South Atlantic convergence zone region. As a consequence, the monsoon flux is retained over the Amazon and a strong convergence of humidity occurs in the Peruvian Amazon basin, favoring high rainfall and discharge. These features are also reported during the 2010-11 austral summer, when an intense La Niña event characterized the equatorial Pacific.

The North American Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Drought Variability for Climate Modeling and Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, E. R.

2007-05-01

The North American Drought Atlas describes a detailed reconstruction of drought variability from tree rings over most of North America for the past 500-1000 years. The first version of it, produced over three years ago, was based on a network of 835 tree-ring chronologies and a 286-point grid of instrumental Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI). These gridded PDSI reconstructions have been used in numerous published studies now that range from modeling fire in the American West, to the impact of drought on palaeo-Indian societies, and to the determination of the primary causes of drought over North America through climate modeling experiments. Some examples of these applications will be described to illustrate the scientific value of these large-scale reconstructions of drought. Since the development and free public release of Version 1 of the North American Drought Atlas (see http:iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.LDEO/.TRL/.NADA2004/.pdsi-atlas.html), great improvements have been made in the critical tree-ring network used to reconstruct PDSI at each grid point. This network has now been enlarged to 1743 annual tree-ring chronologies, which greatly improves the density of tree-ring records in certain parts of the grid, especially in Canada and Mexico. In addition, the number of tree-ring records that extend back before AD 1400 has been substantially increased. These developments justify the creation of Version 2 of the North American Drought Atlas. In this talk I will describe this new version of the drought atlas and some of its properties that make it a significant improvement over the previous version. The new product provides enhanced resolution of the spatial and temporal variability of prolonged drought such as the late 16th century event that impacted regions of both Mexico and the United States. I will also argue for the North American Drought Atlas being used as a template for the development of large-scale drought reconstructions in other land areas of

The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Laaha, Gregor; Gauster, Tobias; Delus, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe

2016-04-01

The year 2015 was hot and dry in many European countries. A timely assessment of its hydrological impacts constitutes a difficult task, because stream flow records are often not available within 2-3 years after recording. Moreover, monitoring is performed on a national or even provincial basis. There are still major barriers of data access, especially for eastern European countries. Wherever data are available, their compatibility poses a major challenge. In two companion papers we summarize a collaborative initiative of members of UNESCO's FRIEND-Water program to perform a timely Pan-European assessment of the 2015 drought. In this second part we analyse the hydrological perspective based on streamflow observations. We first describe the data access strategy and the assessment method. We than present the results consisting of a range of low flow indices calculated for about 800 gauges across Europe. We compare the characteristics of the 2015 drought with the average, long-term conditions, and with the specific conditions of the 2003 drought, which is often used as a worst-case benchmark to gauge future drought events. Overall, the hydrological 2015 drought is characterised by a much smaller spatial extend than the 2003 drought. Extreme streamflows are observed mainly in a band North of the Alps spanning from E-France to Poland. In terms of flow magnitude, Czech, E-Germany and N-Austria were most affected. In this region the low flows often had return periods of 100 years and more, indicating that the event was much more severe than the 2003 event. In terms of deficit volumes, the centre of the event was more oriented towards S-Germany. Based on a detailed assessment of the spatio-temporal characteristics at various scales, we are able to explain the different behaviour in these regions by diverging wetness preconditions in the catchments. This suggest that the sole knowledge of atmospheric indices is not sufficient to characterise hydrological drought events. We

Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Fundel

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.

The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive

Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

Science.gov (United States)

Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

2013-01-01

Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

Probabilistic analysis of drought spatiotemporal characteristics inThessaly region, Greece

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A. Loukas

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological drought are investigated to provide a framework for sustainable water resources management in the region of Thessaly, Greece. Thessaly is the most intensely cultivated and productive agricultural plain region in Greece. Thessaly's total area is about 13700 km2 and it is surrounded by mountains and traversed by Pinios River. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI as an indicator of drought severity, the characteristics of droughts are examined. Thessaly was divided into 212 grid-cells of 8 x 8 km and monthly precipitation data for the period 1960–1993 from 50 meteorological stations were used for global interpolation of precipitation using spatial co-ordinates and elevation data. Drought severity was assessed from the estimated gridded SPI values at multiple time scales. Firstly, the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts were analyzed and then, Drought Severity – Areal extent – Frequency (SAF annual and monthly curves were developed. The analysis indicated that moderate and severe droughts are common in Thessaly region. Using the SAF curves, the return period of selected severe drought events was assessed.

Mapping Drought Sensitivity of Ecosystem Functioning in Mountainous Watersheds: Spatial Heterogeneity and Geological-Geomorphological Control

Science.gov (United States)

Wainwright, H. M.; Steefel, C. F.; Williams, K. H.; Hubbard, S. S.; Enquist, B. J.; Steltzer, H.; Sarah, T.

2016-12-01

Mountainous watersheds in the Upper Colorado River Basin play a critical role in supplying water and nutrients to western North America. Ecosystem functioning in those regions - including plant dynamics and biogeochemical cycling - is known to be limited by water availability. Under the climate change, early snowmelt and increasing temperature are expected to intensify the drought conditions in early growing seasons. Although the impact of early-season drought has been documented in plot-scale experiments, ascertaining its significance in mountainous watersheds is challenging given the highly heterogeneous nature of the systems with complex terrain and diverse plant functional types (PFTs). The objectives of this study are (1) to map the regions where the plant dynamics are relatively more sensitive to drought conditions based on historical satellite and climate data, and (2) to identify the environmental controls (e.g., geomorphology, elevation, geology, snow and PFT) on drought sensitivity. We characterize the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity in four watersheds (a 15 x 15 km domain) near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Colorado, USA. Following previous plot-scale studies, we first define the drought sensitivity based on annual peak NDVI (Landsat 5) and climatic datasets. Non-parametric tree-based machine learning methods are used to identify the significant environmental controls, using high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation map and peak snow-water-equivalent distribution from NASA airborne snow observatory. Results show that the drought sensitivity is negatively correlated with elevation, suggesting increased water limitations in lower elevation (less snow, higher temperature). The drought sensitivity is more spatially variable in shallow-rooted plant types, affected by local hydrological conditions. We also found geomorphological and geological controls, such as high sensitivity in the steep well-drained glacial moraine regions. Our

Drought vulnerability assesssment and mapping in Morocco

Science.gov (United States)

Imani, Yasmina; Lahlou, Ouiam; Bennasser Alaoui, Si; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Juergen

2014-05-01

basin is highly vulnerable to drought. The mountainous areas present the most favorable annual rainfall. That contributes to explain their low DVI. In the provinces that present the highest vulnerability to drought, spots presenting a lower vulnerability correspond to large irrigated perimeters. Overall, the main output of this study were to show how the DVI can allow detecting the differences in vulnerability in the different rural communes providing, therefore, a tool for more effective drought management practices. The analysis of the 4 dimensions of the DVI showed that at the river basin level, the mean annual rainfall, the percentage of irrigated lands, The Cereal / Fruit trees and market crops ratio, the land status, the farm's sizes, the adult literacy rate and the access to improved drinking water represent the major drivers of vulnerability. They may therefore be targeted in priority by mitigation and adaptation actions.

Hypocalcemia in ewes after a drought

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, J.W.A.; Constable, P.D.; Napthine, D.V.

1986-01-01

A marked increase in the incidence of hypocalcemia of ewes 2 to 6 weeks before lambing was observed in the Western District of Victoria, following the break of the severe 1982/3 drought. A similar observation was made after the 1968 drought. In western Victoria, hypocalcemia is usually seen annually as sporadic cases or in sporadic outbreaks associated with some predisposing stress. After the drought broke in 1983, many farms reported cases of hypocalcemia in ewes. The incidence of hypocalcemia on the 9 farms the authors studied varied from 1 to 8% of all ewes, with some mobs having an incidence of over 10%. Detailed investigation of 9 farms that affected sheep were grazing pasture of unusually low calcium (Ca) content. Near record rains fell after the drought broke in late March 1983 resulting in luxuriant pasture growth with subterranean clover Trifolium subterraneum and capeweed Arctotheca calendula the dominant species. Cases of hypocalcemia commenced in May 1983 reaching a peak in June-July corresponding with flocks' lambing times, and continued into August. Most occurred spontaneously in mature ewes. A few farms experienced many cases during prelambing crutching.

Spatial and temporal variability of drought in the arid region of China and its relationships to teleconnection indices

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huaijun; Chen, Yaning; Pan, Yingping; Li, Weihong

2015-04-01

We studied the drought patterns in the arid region of northwestern China between 1960 and 2010 using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The general evolution of drought was obtained by empirical orthogonal function (EOF), rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the continuous wavelet transform method. Additionally, relationships between rotated principal component time series (RPCs) and seven selected climate indices were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Four moisture-related spatial patterns (North Xinjiang, western South Xinjiang, Central Xinjiang, and the Hexi Corridor) were objectively defined by REOF analysis. These patterns are related to distinct geographical areas and are associated with distinct temporal variations. (2) The PDSI increased significantly in most regions of Xinjiang, while decreased in the eastern Hexi Corridor. The significant 4-8 year band is the major period band for the annual and seasonal PDSI derived. (3) The seasonal REOFs (RPCs) and EOFs (PCs) have consistent spatial distribution patterns with the annual REOF. The seasonal trends of PDSI are also the same as the annual PDSI trends, indicating space-time consistency between annual PDSI and seasonal PDSI. (4) The drought evolution in this region is affected by the area of northern hemisphere polar vortex, the Arctic Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. In addition, the changes of drought in South Xinjiang and the Hexi Corridor may also be associated with the Tibetan Plateau High. Changes in drought pattern are expected to have a strong impact on the economic livelihood of the region, especially for agricultural production.

Flow-duration-frequency behaviour of British rivers based on annual minima data

Science.gov (United States)

Zaidman, Maxine D.; Keller, Virginie; Young, Andrew R.; Cadman, Daniel

2003-06-01

A comparison of different probability distribution models for describing the flow-duration-frequency behaviour of annual minima flow events in British rivers is reported. Twenty-five catchments were included in the study, each having stable and natural flow records of at least 30 years in length. Time series of annual minima D-day average flows were derived for each record using durations ( D) of 1, 7, 30, 60, 90, and 365 days and used to construct low flow frequency curves. In each case the Gringorten plotting position formula was used to determine probabilities (of non-exceedance). Four distribution types—Generalised Extreme Value (GEV), Generalised Logistic (GL), Pearson Type-3 (PE3) and Generalised Pareto (GP)—were used to model the probability distribution function for each site. L-moments were used to parameterise individual models, whilst goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess their match to the sample data. The study showed that where short durations (i.e. 60 days or less) were considered, high storage catchments tended to be best represented by GL and GEV distribution models whilst low storage catchments were best described by PE3 or GEV models. However, these models produced reasonable results only within a limited range (e.g. models for high storage catchments did not produce sensible estimates of return periods where the prescribed flow was less than 10% of the mean flow). For annual minima series derived using long duration flow averages (e.g. more than 90 days), GP and GEV models were generally more applicable. The study suggests that longer duration minima do not conform to the same distribution types as short durations, and that catchment properties can influence the type of distribution selected.

Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wada, Yoshi|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; van Lanen, H.A.J

2015-01-01

Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010–11 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazonas River and tributaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Ronchail, Josyane; Drapeau, Guillaume; Guyot, Jean Loup; Martinez, Jean Michel; Santini, William; Vauchel, Philippe; Espinoza, Raúl; Junquas, Clementine; Lavado, Waldo; Ordoñez, Julio

2012-01-01

In this work we document and analyze the hydrological annual cycles characterized by a rapid transition between low and high flows in the Amazonas River (Peruvian Amazon) and we show how these events, which may impact vulnerable riverside residents, are related to regional climate variability. Our analysis is based on comprehensive discharge, rainfall and average suspended sediment data sets. Particular attention is paid to the 2010–11 hydrological year, when an unprecedented abrupt transition from the extreme September 2010 drought (8300 m 3 s −1 ) to one of the four highest discharges in April 2011 (49 500 m 3 s −1 ) was recorded at Tamshiyacu (Amazonas River). This unusual transition is also observed in average suspended sediments. Years with a rapid increase in discharge are characterized by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during austral summer, corresponding to a La Niña-like mode. It originates a geopotential height wave train over the subtropical South Pacific and southeastern South America, with a negative anomaly along the southern Amazon and the southeastern South Atlantic convergence zone region. As a consequence, the monsoon flux is retained over the Amazon and a strong convergence of humidity occurs in the Peruvian Amazon basin, favoring high rainfall and discharge. These features are also reported during the 2010–11 austral summer, when an intense La Niña event characterized the equatorial Pacific. (letter)

The response of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and the ecosystem carbon balance to experimental drought in a temperate shrubland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sowerby, A.; Emmett, B.A.; Williams, D.

2010-01-01

in northeast Wales, we have carried out an annual drought treatment for 8 years, reducing levels of annual rainfall by 23% on average (1999–2007) through the use of automated roofs, which prevent rain falling on experimental plots between June and September annually. Following 5 years of repeated summer...... drainage of water from the drought-treated soils resulted in an overall decrease of 9% in total DOC export. Calculating the carbon (C) balance for the below-ground component of the ecosystem reveals that DOC represents 3% of gross C export. Previous studies at the site have demonstrated large increases...... in soil respiration resulting from the repeated drought treatment. By including data presented here with other C fluxes and pool measurements from the site, we demonstrate that soil carbon is accumulating by 126 g C m−2 year−1 in the control plots, but decreasing by 18 g C m2 year−1 in the drought plots...

Bivariate Drought Analysis Using Streamflow Reconstruction with Tree Ring Indices in the Sacramento Basin, California, USA

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Jaewon Kwak

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Long-term streamflow data are vital for analysis of hydrological droughts. Using an artificial neural network (ANN model and nine tree-ring indices, this study reconstructed the annual streamflow of the Sacramento River for the period from 1560 to 1871. Using the reconstructed streamflow data, the copula method was used for bivariate drought analysis, deriving a hydrological drought return period plot for the Sacramento River basin. Results showed strong correlation among drought characteristics, and the drought with a 20-year return period (17.2 million acre-feet (MAF per year in the Sacramento River basin could be considered a critical level of drought for water shortages.

Hydrologic Drought Decision Support System (HyDroDSS)

Science.gov (United States)

Granato, Gregory E.

2014-01-01

The hydrologic drought decision support system (HyDroDSS) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Rhode Island Water Resources Board (RIWRB) for use in the analysis of hydrologic variables that may indicate the risk for streamflows to be below user-defined flow targets at a designated site of interest, which is defined herein as data-collection site on a stream that may be adversely affected by pumping. Hydrologic drought is defined for this study as a period of lower than normal streamflows caused by precipitation deficits and (or) water withdrawals. The HyDroDSS is designed to provide water managers with risk-based information for balancing water-supply needs and aquatic-habitat protection goals to mitigate potential effects of hydrologic drought. This report describes the theory and methods for retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis, rank correlation analysis, and drought-projection analysis. All three methods are designed to inform decisions made by drought steering committees and decisionmakers on the basis of quantitative risk assessment. All three methods use estimates of unaltered streamflow, which is the measured or modeled flow without major withdrawals or discharges, to approximate a natural low-flow regime. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis can be used by water-resource managers to evaluate relations between withdrawal plans and the potential effects of withdrawal plans on streams at one or more sites of interest in an area. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis indicates the historical risk of being below user-defined flow targets if different pumping plans were implemented for the period of record. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis also indicates the risk for creating hydrologic drought conditions caused by use of a pumping plan. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis is done by calculating the net streamflow depletions from withdrawals and discharges and applying these depletions

Drought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes

Science.gov (United States)

Zipper, Samuel C.; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Kucharik, Christopher J.

2016-09-01

Maximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global food security needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such as drought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yield data to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to 2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, and yield is most sensitive to short-term (1-3 month) droughts during critical development periods from July to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13% of overall yield variability, substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central and southeastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustrates fine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in crop production is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies that buffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term crop productivity.

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE DROUGHT PHENOMENON IN CLUJ COUNTY

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CORNEL BLAGA

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Considerations on the drought phenomenon in Cluj County. Cluj county area is 6674 km², and is located in the northwestern part of Romania. The climate is temperate continental with oceanic influences, relatively humid, but there are also periods of drought and even years with deficient rainfall, as there are periods of excess rainfall. Dryness and drought phenomena are caused by cosmic, climatic, hydrological (groundwater depth, the existence of surface water sources factors, features of the underlying surface, vegetation coverage, soil texture and structure. The relief determines a climate elevation with differences in terms of precipitation and temperatures quantities. To calculate the dryness degree of the climate at weather stations in the Cluj county, the Emmanuel de Martonne aridity index was used. Drought do not induce into the substrate the geomorphologic processes per se, however, they pave the way for starting the deflation process, surface erosion and ravine, by reducing the cohesion between the particles and the formation of deep cracks in the soil and even rock. In these climatic conditions, droughts are less frequent in the county of Cluj, in relation to the extra-Carpathian regions and are distributed unevenly across the county. The number of periods of drought decreases with the increase of the altitude, from an average of 2.6 drought periods a year at Dej (altitude of 232 m to an annual average of 0.3 draught periods at Vlădeasa Peak (altitude of 1836 m.

Defining Drought Characteristics for Natural Resource Management

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Ojima, D. S.; Senay, G. B.; McNeeley, S.; Morisette, J. T.

2016-12-01

In the north central region of the US, on-going drought studies are investigating factors determining how drought impacts various ecosystem services and challenge natural resource management decisions. The effort reported here stems from research sponsored by the USGS North Central Climate Science Center, to deal with ecosystem response to drought with the goal to see if there are indicators of drought emerging from the ecosystem interactions with various weather patterns, soil moisture dynamics, and the structural aspects of the ecosystem in question. The North Central domain covers a region from the headwaters of the Missouri River Basin to the northern Great Plains. Using spatial and temporal analysis of remote sensing products and mechanistic daily time-step ecosystem model simulations across the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies, analysis of recent drought conditions over the region will be provided. Drought characteristics will be analyzed related to resource management targets, such as water supply, landscape productivity, or habitat needs for key species. Analysis of ecosystem and landscape patterns of drought relative to net primary productivity, surface temperatures, soil moisture content, evaporation, transpiration, and water use efficiency from 2000 through 2014 will be analyzed for different drought and non-drought events. Comparisons between satellite-derived ET and NPP of different Great Plains ecosystems related to simulated ET and NPP will be presented. These comparisons provide indications of the role that soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge and rooting depth of different ecosystems have on determining the sensitivity to water stress due to seasonal warming and reduced precipitation across the region. In addition, indications that average annual rainfall levels over certain ecosystems may result in reduced production due to higher rates of water demand under the observed warmer temperatures and the prolonged warming in the spring

Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble

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Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia

2017-04-01

Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event

Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality.

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Qingyin Zhang

Full Text Available Tree mortality due to warming and drought is a critical aspect of forest ecosystem in responding to climate change. Spatial patterns of tree mortality induced by drought and its influencing factors, however, have yet to be documented at the global scale. We collected observations from 248 sites globally where trees have died due to drought and then assessed the effects of climatic and forest factors on the rate of tree mortality. The global mean annual mortality rate was 5.5%. The rate of tree mortality was significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation (P 2000 mm and was severe in regions with mean annual precipitation <1000 mm. Mortality rates varied amongst species. The global annual rate of mortality was much higher for gymnosperms (7.1% than angiosperms (4.8% but did not differ significantly between evergreen (6.2% and deciduous (6.1% species. Stand age and wood density affected the mortality rate. Saplings (4.6% had a higher mortality rate than mature trees (3.2%, and mortality rates significantly decreased with increasing wood density for all species (P < 0.01. We therefore concluded that the tree mortality around the globe varied with climatic and forest factors. The differences between tree species, wood density, stand density, and stand age should be considered when evaluating tree mortality at a large spatial scale during future climatic extremes.

Multi-index time series monitoring of drought and fire effects on desert grasslands

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Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Buckley, Steven; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Coe, Michelle A.

2016-01-01

The Western United States is expected to undergo both extended periods of drought and longer wildfire seasons under forecasted global climate change and it is important to understand how these disturbances will interact and affect recovery and composition of plant communities in the future. In this research paper we describe the temporal response of grassland communities to drought and fire in southern Arizona, where land managers are using repeated, prescribed fire as a habitat restoration tool. Using a 25-year atlas of fire locations, we paired sites with multiple fires to unburned control areas and compare satellite and field-based estimates of vegetation cover over time. Two hundred and fifty Landsat TM images, dating from 1985–2011, were used to derive estimates of Total Vegetation Fractional Cover (TVFC) of live and senescent grass using the Soil-Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI) and post-fire vegetation greenness using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We also implemented a Greenness to Cover Index that is the difference of time-standardized SATVI-TVFC and NDVI values at a given time and location to identify post-fire shifts in native, non-native, and annual plant cover. The results highlight anomalous greening and browning during drought periods related to amounts of annual and non-native plant cover present. Results suggest that aggressive application of prescribed fire may encourage spread of non-native perennial grasses and annual plants, particularly during droughts.

Hydrogeological framework, numerical simulation of groundwater flow, and effects of projected water use and drought for the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, northwestern Oklahoma

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Ryter, Derek W.; Correll, Jessica S.

2016-01-14

This report describes a study of the hydrology, hydrogeological framework, numerical groundwater-flow models, and results of simulations of the effects of water use and drought for the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, northwestern Oklahoma. The purpose of the study was to provide analyses, including estimating equal-proportionate-share (EPS) groundwater-pumping rates and the effects of projected water use and droughts, pertinent to water management of the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer for the Oklahoma Water Resources Board.

A shift in the spatial pattern of Iberian droughts during the 17th century

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F. Domínguez-Castro

2010-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, series of drought occurrence and drought extension in the Iberian Peninsula are constructed for the 1600–1750 period from seven rogation series. These rogation ceremony records come from Bilbao, Catalonia, Zamora, Zaragoza, Toledo, Murcia and Seville. They are distributed across the Peninsula and include the areas with the most characteristic Iberian climate types, influenced by the Atlantic and the Mediterranean conditions, described from modern data. A seasonal division of the series shows that spring is a critical season for rogation series in most of Iberia, being Bilbao the only site were the highest number of rogations is detected for a different season. The annual analysis of the series shows a dramatic difference between the first half of the 17th century when droughts are characterized by its local character; and the rest of the period, when they affect to broader regions or even to the whole Peninsula. The analysis of spring series confirms the existence of the two periods detected in the annual analysis. Finally, secondary documentary sources are used to further characterise the two most extended droughts in the period, 1664 and 1680, and to verify the extension of the areas affected by droughts recorded through rogation series.

Farming suicides during the Victorian drought: 2001-2007.

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Guiney, Robyn

2012-02-01

The objective of this study was to determine whether farming suicides increased in Victoria during the prolonged drought in south eastern Australia and gain an understanding of Victorian farming suicides during the period. Intentional self-harm deaths of farmers and primary producers notified to the Victorian State Coroner from 2001 to 2007 were examined to identify characteristics and determine whether the annual number of farming suicides increased. Farming suicides accounted for just over 3% of Victorian suicides. The total number of farming suicides was 110 for the period and ranged between 11 and 19 deaths per year, rising and falling inconsistently from year to year. Males accounted for nearly 95% of farming suicides, with firearms and hanging the most frequently used methods, and most deaths occurring between 30 and 59 years of age. The small number of relevant cases and fluctuations in the annual number of deaths provides no evidence of a pattern of increasing farming suicides during the drought years, when there was approximately one suicide every 3 weeks. Given the elevated suicide risk in male farmers and association with multiple psychosocial and environmental factors, it cannot be concluded, however, that suicide risk itself did not increase during this period of heightened uncertainty and stress. Drought should not be dismissed among the many risk factors, and it is possible that increased mental health awareness and community support programs targeting drought-affected areas contributed to improved management of stress and suicide risk in regional and rural Victoria over the past decade. © 2012 The Author. Australian Journal of Rural Health © National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System

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Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.

2017-12-01

Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

A century of changing flows: Forest management changed flow magnitudes and warming advanced the timing of flow in a southwestern US river.

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Marcos D Robles

Full Text Available The continued provision of water from rivers in the southwestern United States to downstream cities, natural communities and species is at risk due to higher temperatures and drought conditions in recent decades. Snowpack and snowfall levels have declined, snowmelt and peak spring flows are arriving earlier, and summer flows have declined. Concurrent to climate change and variation, a century of fire suppression has resulted in dramatic changes to forest conditions, and yet, few studies have focused on determining the degree to which changing forests have altered flows. In this study, we evaluated changes in flow, climate, and forest conditions in the Salt River in central Arizona from 1914-2012 to compare and evaluate the effects of changing forest conditions and temperatures on flows. After using linear regression models to remove the influence of precipitation and temperature, we estimated that annual flows declined by 8-29% from 1914-1963, coincident with a 2-fold increase in basal area, a 2-3-fold increase in canopy cover, and at least a 10-fold increase in forest density within ponderosa pine forests. Streamflow volumes declined by 37-56% in summer and fall months during this period. Declines in climate-adjusted flows reversed at mid-century when spring and annual flows increased by 10-31% from 1964-2012, perhaps due to more winter rainfall. Additionally, peak spring flows occurred about 12 days earlier in this period than in the previous period, coincident with winter and spring temperatures that increased by 1-2°C. While uncertainties remain, this study adds to the knowledge gained in other regions that forest change has had effects on flow that were on par with climate variability and, in the case of mid-century declines, well before the influence of anthropogenic warming. Current large-scale forest restoration projects hold some promise of recovering seasonal flows.

The influence of drought on flow‐ecology relationships in Ozark Highland streams

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Lynch, Dustin T.; Leasure, D. R.; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2018-01-01

Drought and summer drying can have strong effects on abiotic and biotic components of stream ecosystems. Environmental flow‐ecology relationships may be affected by drought and drying, adding further uncertainty to the already complex interaction of flow with other environmental variables, including geomorphology and water quality.Environment–ecology relationships in stream communities in Ozark Highland streams, USA, were examined over two years with contrasting environmental conditions, a drought year (2012) and a flood year (2013). We analysed fish, crayfish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages using two different approaches: (1) a multiple regression analysis incorporating predictor variables related to habitat, water quality, geomorphology and hydrology and (2) a canonical ordination procedure using only hydrologic variables in which forward selection was used to select predictors that were most related to our response variables.Reach‐scale habitat quality and geomorphology were found to be the most important influences on community structure, but hydrology was also important, particularly during the flood year. We also found substantial between‐year variation in environment–ecology relationships. Some ecological responses differed significantly between drought and flood years, while others remained consistent. We found that magnitude was the most important flow component overall, but that there was a shift in relative importance from low flow metrics during the drought year to average flow metrics during the flood year, and the specific metrics of importance varied markedly between assemblages and years.Findings suggest that understanding temporal variation in flow‐ecology relationships may be crucial for resource planning. While some relationships show temporal variation, others are consistent between years. Additionally, different kinds of hydrologic variables can differ greatly in terms of which assemblages they affect and how they affect

Competition amplifies drought stress in forests across broad climatic and compositional gradients

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Gleason, Kelly; Bradford, John B.; Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Tony; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.; Battaglia, Michael; Iverson, Louis R.; Kenefic, Laura; Kern, Christel C.

2017-01-01

Forests around the world are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and elevated competitive intensity due to increased tree density. However, the influence of interactions between drought and competition on forest growth remains poorly understood. Using a unique dataset of stand-scale dendrochronology sampled from 6405 trees, we quantified how annual growth of entire tree populations responds to drought and competition in eight, long-term (multi-decadal), experiments with replicated levels of density (e.g., competitive intensity) arrayed across a broad climatic and compositional gradient. Forest growth (cumulative individual tree growth within a stand) declined during drought, especially during more severe drought in drier climates. Forest growth declines were exacerbated by high density at all sites but one, particularly during periods of more severe drought. Surprisingly, the influence of forest density was persistent overall, but these density impacts were greater in the humid sites than in more arid sites. Significant density impacts occurred during periods of more extreme drought, and during warmer temperatures in the semi-arid sites but during periods of cooler temperatures in the humid sites. Because competition has a consistent influence over growth response to drought, maintaining forests at lower density may enhance resilience to drought in all climates.

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

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Wan, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Now at Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Mishra, Ashok [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson SC USA; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hejazi, Mohamad [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Wei [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Demissisie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA USA; Wang, Hao [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing China

2017-11-03

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

Surface and groundwater drought evaluation with respect to aquatic habitat quality in the upper Nitra River Basin in Slovakia

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Fendekova, M.; Fendek, M.; Macura, V.; Kralova, J.

2012-04-01

Hydrological drought is being broadly studied within last decades in many countries. It is because of increasing frequency of drought periods occurrence also in mild climate conditions, leading to unexpected and undesired consequences for environment and various spheres of the state economy. Drought affects water availability for plants, animals and human society. Natural conditions of drought occurrence are often combined with human activities strengthening drought consequences. Lack of water in the nature, connected to meteorological and hydrological drought occurrence, increases at the same time needs for surface and groundwater in many types of human activities (agriculture, industrial production, electric power generation…). Drought can be identified within the low flow phase of the flow regime. Flow regime is considered for one of the most important conditions influencing quality of the river ecosystems. Occurrence of meteorological, surface and groundwater droughts was analyzed for the upper part of the Nitra River catchment in Slovakia. Drought occurrence was studied in two gauging profiles on the Nitra River - in Klacno and Nedozery, both representing the headwater profiles. The threshold level method was used for groundwater drought analysis. Base flow values were separated from the discharge hydrograms using the HydroOffice 2010 statistical program package. The influence of surface water drought on groundwater level was analyzed. Habitat suitability curves derived according to IFIM methodology were constructed for different fish species at Nedozery profile. The influence of different low flow values from 600 to 150 L/s on fish amount, size and species variability was studied. In the end, the minimum flow, bellow which unfavourable life conditions occur, was estimated. The results showed the necessity of taking into account the ecological parameters when estimating the ecological status of surface water bodies. Such an approach is fully compatible with

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

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Stagge, J. H.; Rosenberg, D. E.; DeRose, R. J.; Rittenour, T. M.

2018-02-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate-change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually require streamflow input at the monthly scale. This study explores the hypothesis that monthly streamflows can be adequately modeled by statistically decomposing annual flow reconstructions. To test this hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model for monthly streamflow reconstruction is presented that expands the set of predictors to include annual streamflow reconstructions, reconstructions of global circulation, and potential differences among regional tree-ring chronologies related to tree species and geographic location. This approach is used to reconstruct 600 years of monthly streamflows at two sites on the Bear and Logan rivers in northern Utah. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies remain above zero (0.26-0.60) for all months except April and Pearson's correlation coefficients (R) are 0.94 and 0.88 for the Bear and Logan rivers, respectively, confirming that the model can adequately reproduce monthly flows during the reference period (10/1942 to 9/2015). Incorporating a flexible transition between the previous and concurrent annual reconstructed flows was the most important factor for model skill. Expanding the model to include global climate indices and regional tree-ring chronologies produced smaller, but still significant improvements in model fit. The model presented here is the only approach currently available to reconstruct monthly streamflows directly from tree-ring chronologies and climate reconstructions, rather than using resampling of the observed record. With reasonable estimates of monthly flow that extend back in time many centuries, water managers can challenge systems models with a

Linking events, science and media for flood and drought management

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Ding, M.; Wei, Y.; Zheng, H.; Zhao, Y.

2017-12-01

Throughout history, floods and droughts have been closely related to the development of human riparian civilization. The socio-economic damage caused by floods/droughts appears to be on the rise and the frequency of floods/droughts increases due to global climate change. In this paper, we take a fresh perspective to examine the (dis)connection between events (floods and droughts), research papers and media reports in globally 42 river basins between 1990 and 2012 for better solutions in floods and droughts management. We collected hydrological data from NOAA/ESPL Physical Sciences Division (PSD) and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), all relevant scientific papers from Web of Science (WOS) and media records from Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the study period, presented the temporal variability at annual level of these three groups of data, and analysed the (connection) among these three groups of data in typical river basins. We found that 1) the number of flood related reports on both media and research is much more than those on droughts; 2) the concerns of media reports just focused on partial topics (death, severity and damage) and partial catchments (Mediterranean Sea and Nile River); 3) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within some river basins such as Nile River Basin, Parana River Basin, Savannah River Basin and Murray-Darling River Basin; 4) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within only a few of disciplines such as Geology, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Agriculture, Engineering and Forestry. It is recommended that multiple disciplinary contribution and collaboration should be promoted to achieve comprehensive flood/drought management, and science and media should interactively play their valuable roles and in flood/drought issues. Keywords: Floods, droughts, events, science, media, flood and drought management

Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

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Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin

2018-01-01

The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought in Shandong Province of Eastern China were investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. Monthly precipitation and air temperature time series during the period 1960-2012 were collected at 23 meteorological stations uniformly distributed over the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the temporal trends of precipitation, air temperature, and the SPEI drought index. S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify the spatial patterns of drought. The results showed that an insignificant decreasing trend in annual total precipitation was detected at most stations, a significant increase of annual average air temperature occurred at all the 23 stations, and a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI was mainly detected at the coastal stations for all the time scales. The frequency of occurrence of extreme and severe drought at different time scales generally increased with decades; higher frequency and larger affected area of extreme and severe droughts occurred as the time scale increased, especially for the northwest of Shandong Province and Jiaodong peninsular. The spatial pattern of drought for SPEI-1 contains three regions: eastern Jiaodong Peninsular and northwestern and southern Shandong. As the time scale increased to 3, 6, and 12 months, the order of the three regions was transformed into another as northwestern Shandong, eastern Jiaodong Peninsular, and southern Shandong. For SPEI-24, the location identified by REOF1 was slightly shifted from northwestern Shandong to western Shandong, and REOF2 and REOF3 identified another two weak patterns in the south edge and north edge of Jiaodong Peninsular, respectively. The potential causes of drought and the impact of drought on agriculture in the study area have also been discussed. The temporal variations and spatial patterns

Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

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N. Wanders

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

Assessment the Effect of Drought on Vegetation in Desert Area using Landsat Data

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H. Khosravi

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Drought phenomenon is one kind of a disaster that can significantly affect the density of vegetation in any area especially dry regions. This study tries to express the effect of drought on vegetation cover in Yazd-Ardakan plain, central Iran. At first, annual average for SPI index was calculated from 1996 to 2015, and then NDVI was calculated for May in 1998, 2000, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2015. Afterwards, NDVI maps were classified into three groups including no vegetation, poor vegetation (pastures, and dense vegetation (farmlands and gardens. Based on the results the worst value of drought was −1.92 in year 1999. Besides, the annual SPI of 1996 with value of 2.4 was considered as the wettest year during study period (1996–2015. The highest percentage of dense vegetation and poor vegetation were related to 2010 and 1998 respectively, and the lowest percentage for both classes was related to 2000. There was correlation among the area of poor vegetation class in middle of spring and previous annual SPI at the significant level of 95%. In contract, no correlation was found between dense vegetation class areas in middle spring and previous amount of annual SPI. The study of the correlation between the SPI average and the percentage of vegetation classes indicated that pastures were highly sensitive to SPI changes; however, farming lands showed less sensitivity in short term due to using deep wells.

Multiple causes of nonstationarity in the Weihe annual low-flow series

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Xiong, Bin; Xiong, Lihua; Chen, Jie; Xu, Chong-Yu; Li, Lingqi

2018-02-01

Under the background of global climate change and local anthropogenic activities, multiple driving forces have introduced various nonstationary components into low-flow series. This has led to a high demand on low-flow frequency analysis that considers nonstationary conditions for modeling. In this study, through a nonstationary frequency analysis framework with the generalized linear model (GLM) to consider time-varying distribution parameters, the multiple explanatory variables were incorporated to explain the variation in low-flow distribution parameters. These variables are comprised of the three indices of human activities (HAs; i.e., population, POP; irrigation area, IAR; and gross domestic product, GDP) and the eight measuring indices of the climate and catchment conditions (i.e., total precipitation P, mean frequency of precipitation events λ, temperature T, potential evapotranspiration (EP), climate aridity index AIEP, base-flow index (BFI), recession constant K and the recession-related aridity index AIK). This framework was applied to model the annual minimum flow series of both Huaxian and Xianyang gauging stations in the Weihe River, China (also known as the Wei He River). The results from stepwise regression for the optimal explanatory variables show that the variables related to irrigation, recession, temperature and precipitation play an important role in modeling. Specifically, analysis of annual minimum 30-day flow in Huaxian shows that the nonstationary distribution model with any one of all explanatory variables is better than the one without explanatory variables, the nonstationary gamma distribution model with four optimal variables is the best model and AIK is of the highest relative importance among these four variables, followed by IAR, BFI and AIEP. We conclude that the incorporation of multiple indices related to low-flow generation permits tracing various driving forces. The established link in nonstationary analysis will be beneficial

Satellite-based Drought Reporting on the Navajo Nation

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McCullum, A. J. K.; Schmidt, C.; Ly, V.; Green, R.; McClellan, C.

2017-12-01

The Navajo Nation (NN) is the largest reservation in the US, and faces challenges related to water management during long-term and widespread drought episodes. The Navajo Nation is a federally recognized tribe, which has boundaries within Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. The Navajo Nation has a land area of over 70,000 square kilometers. The Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources (NNDWR) reports on drought and climatic conditions through the use of regional Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and a network of in-situ rainfall, streamflow, and climate data. However, these data sources lack the spatial detail and consistent measurements needed to provide a coherent understanding of the drought regime within the Nation's regional boundaries. This project, as part of NASA's Western Water Applications Office (WWAO), improves upon the recently developed Drought Severity Assessment Tool (DSAT) to ingest satellite-based precipitation data to generate SPI values for specific administrative boundaries within the reservation. The tool aims to: (1) generate SPI values and summary statistics for regions of interest on various timescales, (2) to visualize SPI values within a web-map application, and (3) produce maps and comparative statistical outputs in the format required for annual drought reporting. The co-development of the DSAT with NN partners is integral to increasing the sustained use of Earth Observations for water management applications. This tool will provide data to support the NN in allocation of drought contingency dollars to the regions most adversely impacted by declines in water availability.

Assessing and mapping drought hazard in Africa and South-Central America with a Meteorological Drought Severity Index

Science.gov (United States)

Carrao, Hugo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen

2015-04-01

the intra-annual variability of precipitation in estimating the severity of events that can impact on seasonal activities. The MDSI is standardized in space and time, and considers the relative monthly precipitation deficits and the seasonal influence of precipitation regimes in the meteorological drought severity computation. In this study, the calculation of the MDSI is performed with monthly precipitation totals from the Full Data Reanalysis Monthly Product Version 6.0 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). This dataset provides a global analysis at 0.5 dd latitude/longitude grid spacing of monthly precipitation over land from operational in situ rain gauges collected between January 1901 and December 2010. Using the MDSI, we estimated the severity of drought events that occurred in the past 100 years in Africa and South-Central America, and produced drought hazard maps based on the probability of exceedance the median historical severity. Overall, results indicate that drought hazard is high for semiarid areas, such as Northeastern and Southern South America, as well as Eastern and Southwestern Africa. Since available water resources in semiarid areas are already insufficient to permanently meet the demands of human activities, the outcomes highlight the aggravated risk for food security and confirm the need for the implementation of disaster mitigation measures in those regions.

Evaluation of groundwater droughts in Austria

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Haas, Johannes Christoph; Birk, Steffen

2015-04-01

Droughts are abnormally dry periods that affect various aspects of human life on earth, ranging from negative impacts on agriculture or industry, to being the cause for conflict and loss of human life. The changing climate reinforces the importance of investigations into this phenomenon. Various methods to analyze and classify droughts have been developed. These include drought indices such as the Standard Precipitation Index SPI, the Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI or the Crop Moisture Index CMI. These and other indices consider meteorological parameters and/or their effects on soil moisture. A depletion of soil moisture triggered by low precipitation and high evapotranspiration may also cause reduced groundwater recharge and thus decreasing groundwater levels and reduced groundwater flow to springs, streams, and wetlands. However, the existing indices were generally not designed to address such drought effects on groundwater. Thus, a Standardized Groundwater level Index has recently been proposed by Bloomfied and Marchant (2013). Yet, to our knowledge, this approach has only been applied to consolidated aquifers in the UK. This work analyzes time series of groundwater levels from various, mostly unconsolidated aquifers in Austria in order to characterize the effects of droughts on aquifers in different hydrogeologic and climatic settings as well as under different usage scenarios. In particular, comparisons are made between the water rich Alpine parts of Austria, and the dryer parts situated in the East. The time series of groundwater levels are compared to other data, such as meteorological time series and written weather records about generally accepted phenomena, such as the 2003 European drought and heat wave. Thus, valuable insight is gained into the propagation of meteorological droughts through the soil and the aquifer in different types of hydrogeologic and climatic settings, which provides a prerequisite for the assessment of the aquifers' drought

Hydrology, water quality, and effects of drought in Monroe County, Michigan

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholas, J.R.; Rowe, Gary L.; Brannen, J.R.

1996-01-01

streamwater at low flow is suitable for most domestic u~es, irrigation, and recreation. In ground water, dissolved solids and hydrogen sulfide are present at concentrations objectionable to some users. Indicators of ground-water contamination from agricultural activities-pesticides and nitrates-were not present at detectable concentrations or were below U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) limits. In streamwater, some treatment to remove bacteria may be necessary in summer months; nitrate concentrations, however, were found to be below USEPA limits.Tritium concentrations indicative of recent recharge to the Silurian-Devonian aquifer are present in a southwest-to-northeast-trending band from Whiteford to Berlin Townships. Generally, where glacial deposits are thicker than 30 feet, rech~rge.takes more than 40 years. Carbon isotope data md1cate that some of the ground water in the Silurian-Devonian aquifer is more than 14,000 years old.Mild droughts are common in Michigan, but long severe droughts, such as those during 1930-37 and 1960-67, are infrequent. The most recent drought, during 1988, was severe but short. Ground-water levels declined throughout the county; the largest declines were probably in the southwest. Shallow bedrock wells completed in only the upper part of the Silurian-Devonian aquifer and near large uses of ground water were especially susceptible to the effects of drought. Deep bedrock wells continued to produce water through the drought of 1988.During droughts, streamflow is reduced because of low ground-water levels and high consumptive uses of surface water. In 1988, annual discharge on the River Raisin was near normal, but monthly averages were below normal from March through August. The quality of surface water during droughts is similar to that during normal lowflow conditions.

Proof of the Post-drought Effect of Amazonian Forests from Space

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Y.; Saatchi, S. S.; Xu, L.; Yu, Y.; Myneni, R. B.; Knyazikhin, Y.; CHOI, S.

2015-12-01

In 2005, the tropical forests in Amazonia went through a severe drought event across the entire basin. There have been conflict reports on the drought impact on vegetation and the issue was never settled due to limited ground truth. Remote sensing data have been used but often questioned for signal saturation, data quality, or atmosphere contamination. The quantification of carbon changes in this vast terrestrial carbon pool, especially the post-drought effect, is difficult but essential. Lidar measurements, which are regarded as the accurate retrieval of canopy vertical structure, give us the opportunity to quantify the carbon changes for this severe event. Here, we use the lidar waveforms measured from the GLAS sensor from 2004 to 2007 to calculate the vertical profiles of Amazonian forests and their associated carbon stock. After careful quality-filtering, removal of seasonal effect, as well as uncertainty reduction through spatial averaging and random sampling, we find that the mean canopy height in Amazon has much higher reduction from 2006 to 2007 compared to either the drought year from 2004 to 2005, or the immediate post-drought change from 2005 to 2006, demonstrating a lagged effect of drought. Our estimation of carbon loss from model calculation also show that 2005 drought had an significant impact on the carbon exchange, and emissions from post drought disturbance may match the emissions of annual deforestation from Amazonia.

National water summary 1988-89: Hydrologic events and floods and droughts

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Paulson, Richard W.; Chase, Edith B.; Roberts, Robert S.; Moody, David W.

1991-01-01

National Water Summary 1988-89 - Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts documents the occurrence in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands of two types of extreme hydrologic events floods and droughts on the basis of analysis of stream-discharge data. This report details, for the first time, the areal extent of the most notable floods and droughts in each State, portrays their severity in terms of annual peak discharge for floods and annual departure from long-term discharge for droughts for selected stream-gaging stations, and estimates how frequently floods and droughts of such severity can be expected to recur. These two types of extreme hydrologic events are very different in their duration, cause, areal extent, and effect on human activities. Floods are short-term phenomena that typically last only a few hours to a few days and are associated with weather systems that produce unusually large amounts of rain or that cause snow to melt quickly. The large amount of runoff produced causes rivers to overflow their banks and, thus, is highly dangerous to human life and property. In contrast, droughts are long-term phenomena that typically persist for months to a decade or more and are associated with the absence of precipitation producing weather. They affect large geographic areas that can be statewide, regional, or even nationwide in extent. Droughts can cause great economic hardship and even loss of life in developing countries, although the loss of life results almost wholly from diminished water supplies and catastrophic crop failures rather than from the direct and obvious peril to human life that is common to floods. The following discussion is an overview of the three parts of this 1988-89 National Water Summary "Hydrologic Conditions and Water-Related Events, Water Years 1988-89," "Hydrologic Perspectives on Water Issues," and "State Summaries of Floods and Droughts." Background information on sources of atmospheric moisture to the

Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YANG Qing; LI MingXing; ZHENG ZiYan; MA ZhuGuo

2017-01-01

The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought research.However,because of the complexity of drought,there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same time.Therefore,it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought indices.Using terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment,and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in China,we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices:the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI),modified PDSI(PDSI_CN) based on observations in China,self-calibrating PDSI(scPDSI),Surface Wetness Index(SWI),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing(CLM3.5/ObsFC).The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for China.However,it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN;thus,the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted accordingly.Some problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of empiricalparameters.The SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid areas.This is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI,but overestimated in the SPEI,when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these areas.Consequently,the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results,respectively.The CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for China before 2000,but not for arid and semiarid areas after 2000.Consistent with other drought indices,the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet variations.Although the long-term trends of drought areas in China detected by these seven

Statistical Approaches for Spatiotemporal Prediction of Low Flows

Science.gov (United States)

Fangmann, A.; Haberlandt, U.

2017-12-01

An adequate assessment of regional climate change impacts on streamflow requires the integration of various sources of information and modeling approaches. This study proposes simple statistical tools for inclusion into model ensembles, which are fast and straightforward in their application, yet able to yield accurate streamflow predictions in time and space. Target variables for all approaches are annual low flow indices derived from a data set of 51 records of average daily discharge for northwestern Germany. The models require input of climatic data in the form of meteorological drought indices, derived from observed daily climatic variables, averaged over the streamflow gauges' catchments areas. Four different modeling approaches are analyzed. Basis for all pose multiple linear regression models that estimate low flows as a function of a set of meteorological indices and/or physiographic and climatic catchment descriptors. For the first method, individual regression models are fitted at each station, predicting annual low flow values from a set of annual meteorological indices, which are subsequently regionalized using a set of catchment characteristics. The second method combines temporal and spatial prediction within a single panel data regression model, allowing estimation of annual low flow values from input of both annual meteorological indices and catchment descriptors. The third and fourth methods represent non-stationary low flow frequency analyses and require fitting of regional distribution functions. Method three is subject to a spatiotemporal prediction of an index value, method four to estimation of L-moments that adapt the regional frequency distribution to the at-site conditions. The results show that method two outperforms successive prediction in time and space. Method three also shows a high performance in the near future period, but since it relies on a stationary distribution, its application for prediction of far future changes may be

Historical changes in annual peak flows in Maine and implications for flood-frequency analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2010-01-01

Flood-frequency analyses use statistical methods to compute peak streamflows for selected recurrence intervals— the average number of years between peak flows that are equal to or greater than a specified peak flow. Analyses are based on annual peak flows at a stream. It has long been assumed that the annual peak streamflows used in these computations were stationary (non-changing) over very long periods of time, except in river basins subject to direct effects of human activities, such as urbanization and regulation. Because of the potential effects of global warming on peak flows, the assumption of peak-flow stationarity has recently been questioned. Maine has many streamgages with 50 to 105 years of recorded annual peak streamflows. In this study, this long-term record has been tested for historical flood-frequency stationarity, to provide some insight into future flood frequency. Changes over time in annual instantaneous peak streamflows at 28 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages with long-term data (50 or more years) and relatively complete records were investigated by examining linear trends for each streamgage’s period of record. None of the 28 streamgages had more than 5 years of missing data. Eight streamgages have substantial streamflow regulation. Because previous studies have suggested that changes over time may have occurred as a step change around 1970, step changes between each streamgage’s older record (start year to 1970) and newer record (1971 to 2006) also were computed. The median change over time for all 28 streamgages is an increase of 15.9 percent based on a linear change and an increase of 12.4 percent based on a step change. The median change for the 20 unregulated streamgages is slightly higher than for all 28 streamgages; it is 18.4 percent based on a linear change and 15.0 percent based on a step change. Peak flows with 100- and 5-year recurrence intervals were computed for the 28 streamgages using the full annual peak-flow record

The Influences of Drought and Land-Cover Conversion on Inter-Annual Variation of NPP in the Three-North Shelterbelt Program Zone of China Based on MODIS Data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dailiang Peng

Full Text Available Terrestrial ecosystems greatly contribute to carbon (C emission reduction targets through photosynthetic C uptake.Net primary production (NPP represents the amount of atmospheric C fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP zone accounts for more than 40% of China's landmass. This zone has been the scene of several large-scale ecological restoration efforts since the late 1990s, and has witnessed significant changes in climate and human activities.Assessing the relative roles of different causal factors on NPP variability in TNSP zone is very important for establishing reasonable local policies to realize the emission reduction targets for central government. In this study, we examined the relative roles of drought and land cover conversion(LCC on inter-annual changes of TNSP zone for 2001-2010. We applied integrated correlation and decomposition analyses to a Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI and MODIS land cover dataset. Our results show that the 10-year average NPP within this region was about 420 Tg C. We found that about 60% of total annual NPP over the study area was significantly correlated with SPEI (p<0.05. The LCC-NPP relationship, which is especially evident for forests in the south-central area, indicates that ecological programs have a positive impact on C sequestration in the TNSP zone. Decomposition analysis generally indicated that the contributions of LCC, drought, and other Natural or Anthropogenic activities (ONA to changes in NPP generally had a consistent distribution pattern for consecutive years. Drought and ONA contributed about 74% and 23% to the total changes in NPP, respectively, and the remaining 3% was attributed to LCC. Our results highlight the importance of rainfall supply on NPP variability in the TNSP zone.

Causes and consequences of the hydrological droughts in the south region of European Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Kireeva, Maria; Ilich, Vladislav; Kharlamov, Maksim; Frolova, Natalia; Goncharov, Aleksandr

2017-04-01

In the last decade the number of extreme low-flow periods on Russian rivers has increased significantly. The most severe water shortage currently observed in the Don and Volga basin. Also suffers from lack of water of Lake Baikal region, left-bank tributaries of the Lena. The most acute problem of water shortage is in the basin of the Don river. It is located in the south od European part of Russia and has an area of 422 ths km2, which is very densely populated (more than 29 million inhabitants). The river and its tributaries are the main sources of fresh water for the population. In addition, they play a key role in industries such as fisheries, recreation, shipping, hydropower (HPP Tsimlyanskaya). Don anciently was very famous for its biodiversity and the number of organisms of the floodplain ecosystems. However, at the present time due to anthropogenic stress and climate change, these figures dropped down. This study is devoted to the complex analysis arising in the district. Don water shortage. As part of the research was carried out the spatial distribution of runoff, revealing its meteorological reasons of water shortage, the impact of water scarcity on the ecosystem in general and fish fauna in particular. Hydrological drought is clearly manifested in the annual runoff only in the lower part of the basin. From 2007 the annual runoff probability here are higher than 80%. It was found that the longest (during record from 1930ths) duration of the event associated with rotation of water shortages on the left and right-bank tributaries of the river. In addition, the analysis of the spatial distribution of seasonal runoff probability showed that in the upper catchment hydrological drought is hardly observed: the rate accounts for 60% and lower. Drought has led to the transformation of the aquatic ecosystem of the Don river and its transition from oligotrophic to eutrophic state. The concentration of phytoplankton in the August - September during low flow period

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

Characterizing water use strategies of Acer saccharum, Liriodendron tulipifera, and Quercus spp. during a severe drought

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, K.; Novick, K. A.; Dragoni, D.; Moore, W.; Roman, D. T.

2014-12-01

In many areas, drought is expected to occur more frequently and intensely in the future due to climate change; however, drought effects on ecosystem-scale fluxes in diverse forests will reflect the diversity of water use strategies among the dominant tree species. For three years (2011-2013) that included a severe drought event (in 2012), we measured the sap flow densities along the sapwood profiles (four radial depths: 1, 2, 3, 4 cm) in Acer saccharum, Liriodendron tulipifera, and Quercus spp. using the compensation heat pulse technique at the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (Indiana, USA). Sap flow velocity varies along the radial profile of the stem, and thus characterizing its pattern is important for estimating whole tree sap flow, and for characterizing the extent to which water stress alters the radial pattern of flow. We also focused on the nocturnal sap flow, which may be used to replenish stored water depleted during the daytime, in order to assess the extent to which the three species rely on hydraulic capacitance to cope with water stress. Sap flow densities along the sapwood profile of all three species tended to increase toward the cambium under moderate climate, while the tendency was reversed under severe drought. This shift may indicate greater reliance on stored water in the inner sapwood or cavitation of outer sapwood during the drought. It was also noticeable that Quercus spp. showed lower maximum sap flow density and narrower range (1.5 - 4.6 cm h-1) than other species (A. saccharum: 1.0 - 20.8 cm h-1, L. tulipifera: < 0.1 - 45.2 cm h-1) during 3 years of measurements. In addition, nocturnal/diurnal ratios of volumetric sap flows were significantly higher in the drought year for A. saccharum (0.140.01 in 2011 and 0.200.01 in 2013 vs. 0.290.01 in 2012) and L. tulipifera (0.140.00 in 2011 and 0.090.01 in 2013 vs. 0.300.01 in 2012), while Quercus spp. didn't show a significant difference between moderate and drought years. This may be due to the

SDI and Markov Chains for Regional Drought Characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen-Feng Yeh

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In recent years, global climate change has altered precipitation patterns, causing uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation that gradually induces precipitation polarization phenomena. Taiwan is located in the subtropical climate zone, with distinct wet and dry seasons, which makes the polarization phenomenon more obvious; this has also led to a large difference between river flows during the wet and dry seasons, which is significantly influenced by precipitation, resulting in hydrological drought. Therefore, to effectively address the growing issue of water shortages, it is necessary to explore and assess the drought characteristics of river systems. In this study, the drought characteristics of northern Taiwan were studied using the streamflow drought index (SDI and Markov chains. Analysis results showed that the year 2002 was a turning point for drought severity in both the Lanyang River and Yilan River basins; the severity of rain events in the Lanyang River basin increased after 2002, and the severity of drought events in the Yilan River basin exhibited a gradual upward trend. In the study of drought severity, analysis results from periods of three months (November to January and six months (November to April have shown significant drought characteristics. In addition, analysis of drought occurrence probabilities using the method of Markov chains has shown that the occurrence probabilities of drought events are higher in the Lanyang River basin than in the Yilan River basin; particularly for extreme events, the occurrence probability of an extreme drought event is 20.6% during the dry season (November to April in the Lanyang River basin, and 3.4% in the Yilan River basin. This study shows that for analysis of drought/wet occurrence probabilities, the results obtained for the drought frequency and occurrence probability using short-term data with the method of Markov chains can be used to predict the long-term occurrence

Lags in hydrologic recovery following an extreme drought: Assessing the roles of climate and catchment characteristics

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Yang, Yuting; McVicar, Tim R.; Donohue, Randall J.; Zhang, Yongqiang; Roderick, Michael L.; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Zhang, Lu; Zhang, Junlong

2017-06-01

Drought, generally characterized by below-average water supply, propagates through the hydrologic system with consequent ecological and societal impacts. Compared with other drought aspects, the recovery of drought especially in the hydrological components, which directly relates to the recovery of water resources for agricultural, ecological and human needs, is less-understood. Here, taking the Millennium drought in southeast Australia (˜1997-2009) as an illustrating case, we comprehensively examined multiple aspects of the meteorological (i.e., precipitation) and hydrological (i.e., streamflow and base flow) droughts across 130 unimpaired catchments using long-term hydro-meteorological observations. Results show that the duration and intensity of the meteorological drought are both lengthened and amplified in the hydrological drought, suggesting a nonstationarity in the rainfall-runoff relationship during a prolonged drought. Additionally, we find a time lag commonly exists between the end of the meteorological droughts and the end of the hydrological drought, with the recovery of base flow showing a longer lag than the recovery of streamflow. The recovery rate of precipitation after drought was found to be the dominant factor that controls the recovery of hydrological droughts while catchment landscape (i.e., valley bottom flatness) plays an important but secondary role in controlling the lags in the hydrological recovery. Other hydro-climatic factors and catchment properties appear to have only minor influences governing hydrological drought recovery. Our findings highlight a delayed response in the terrestrial components of the hydrological cycle to precipitation after prolonged drought, and provide valuable scientific guidance to water resources management and water security assessment in regions facing future droughts.

Southern Hemisphere bog persists as a strong carbon sink during droughts

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Goodrich, Jordan P.; Campbell, David I.; Schipper, Louis A.

2017-10-01

Peatland ecosystems have been important global carbon sinks throughout the Holocene. Most of the research on peatland carbon budgets and effects of variable weather conditions has been done in Northern Hemisphere Sphagnum-dominated systems. Given their importance in other geographic and climatic regions, a better understanding of peatland carbon dynamics is needed across the spectrum of global peatland types. In New Zealand, much of the historic peatland area has been drained for agriculture but little is known about rates of carbon exchange and storage in unaltered peatland remnants that are dominated by the jointed wire rush, Empodisma robustum. We used eddy covariance to measure ecosystem-scale CO2 and CH4 fluxes and a water balance approach to estimate the sub-surface flux of dissolved organic carbon from the largest remaining raised peat bog in New Zealand, Kopuatai bog. The net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was estimated over four years, which included two drought summers, a relatively wet summer, and a meteorologically average summer. In all measurement years, the bog was a substantial sink for carbon, ranging from 134.7 to 216.9 gC m-2 yr-1, owing to the large annual net ecosystem production (161.8 to 244.9 gCO2-C m-2 yr-1). Annual methane fluxes were large relative to most Northern Hemisphere peatlands (14.2 to 21.9 gCH4-C m-2 yr-1), although summer and autumn emissions were highly sensitive to dry conditions, leading to very predictable seasonality according to water table position. The annual flux of dissolved organic carbon was similar in magnitude to methane emissions but less variable, ranging from 11.7 to 12.8 gC m-2 yr-1. Dry conditions experienced during late summer droughts led to significant reductions in annual carbon storage, which resulted nearly equally from enhanced ecosystem respiration due to lowered water tables and increased temperatures, and from reduced gross primary production due to vapor pressure deficit-related stresses to the

The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

KAUST Repository

Meng, Xianhong; Evans, Jason P.; McCabe, Matthew

2013-01-01

Albedo plays an important role in land-atmosphere interactions and local climate. This study presents the impact on simulating regional climate, and the evolution of a drought, when using the default climatological albedo as is usually done

Global Change Drought in the Southwest: New Management Options

Science.gov (United States)

Udall, B. H.; Overpeck, J. T.

2015-12-01

Long held worries about future runoff declines in the Colorado River under climate change are proving to be more than just theory. Fifteen years into this century flows of the Colorado are already declining due mostly to unprecedented temperatures, and as warming proceeds, declines in river flow will grow larger. Temperature-driven droughts, some lasting decades and much more severe than the current 15-year drought, will also become more commonplace if climate change continues unabated. Current projections of future water availability almost universally understate the risk of large Colorado flow reductions under business-as-usual warming. Betting on highly uncertain projections of increased precipitation to overcome even part of the flow reductions due to virtually certain warming is a poor risk management strategy. Many of the existing water policy arrangements in the Colorado River Basin will fail in the 21st century unless innovative new solutions are developed under leadership from the federal government and its basin state partners.

Anatomy of Human Interventions on the Alteration of Drought Risk over the Conterminous US

Science.gov (United States)

He, X.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.

2017-12-01

Drought attribution focusing on anthropogenic climate change has received wide attentions. However, human interventions (HIs), such as irrigation, reservoir operation, and water use, are less well known. In this study, using the large-scale water resources model PCR-GLOBWB, we perform a suite of high-resolution ( 10 km) simulations over the conterminous US (CONUS) in order to disentangle the fingerprints of individual HI elements on changes of hydrological drought. The results show significant trend differences between scenarios with and without HIs in certain regions of the CONUS. HIs cause increased trends in drought severity for the High Plains, California and Mid-Atlantic region, whereas decreased trend emerges in the California Central Valley, lower Mississippi basin and Pacific Northwest. The mechanism of altered drought severity can be broken down into three individual parts, with irrigation increasing the trend in the High Plains and Central Valley, reservoir operation decreasing the trend in Western US and water use amplifying the trend in the urban areas. Besides the trend analysis, we show the relative contribution of water abstraction and return flows to explain how each HI contributes to enhancing or mitigating drought. Results demonstrate that return flows from agricultural irrigation increase recharge and therefore can alleviate hydrological drought (e.g., by 60-80% in Mississippi embayment). Further examination of the water sources indicates that in these drought alleviation hotspots, non-fossil groundwater dominates the total water abstraction. However, for the hotspots of drought intensification (e.g., southern High Plains), extensive irrigational pumping causes severe depletion of fossil groundwater, which reduces the interaction between baseflow and channel flow, and therefore reduces the total streamflow. Return level analysis is further applied to quantify how different types of HIs could alter the probability of occurrence of recent major

Hydrological Retrospective of floods and droughts: Case study in the Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Carlo Espinoza Villar, Jhan; Collischonn, Walter

2017-04-01

Recent studies have reported an increase in intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in many regions of the Amazon basin over last decades, these events such as seasonal floods and droughts have originated a significant impact in human and natural systems. Recently, methodologies such as climatic reanalysis are being developed in order to create a coherent register of climatic systems, thus taking this notion, this research efforts to produce a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), that essentially simulate large rainfall datasets over hydrological models in order to develop a record over past hydrology, enabling the analysis of past floods and droughts. We developed our methodology on the Amazon basin, thus we used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) through a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH), after that HR products were validated against several in situ discharge gauges dispersed throughout Amazon basin, given focus in maximum and minimum events. For better HR results according performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts considering in-situ observations. Furthermore, statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and drought in the whole Amazon basin. Results indicate that better HR represented well most past extreme events registered by in-situ observed data and also showed coherent with many events cited by literature, thus we consider viable to use some large precipitation datasets as climatic reanalysis mainly based on land surface component and datasets based in merged products for represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events. On the other hand, an increase trend of intensity was realized for maximum annual discharges (related to floods) in north-western regions and for minimum annual discharges (related to drought) in central-south regions of the Amazon basin, these features were

Amazon Forests Response to Droughts: A Perspective from the MAIAC Product

Science.gov (United States)

Bi, Jian; Myneni, Ranga; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Park, Taejin; Chi, Chen; Yan, Kai; Knyazikhin, Yuri

2016-01-01

Amazon forests experienced two severe droughts at the beginning of the 21st century: one in 2005 and the other in 2010. How Amazon forests responded to these droughts is critical for the future of the Earth's climate system. It is only possible to assess Amazon forests' response to the droughts in large areal extent through satellite remote sensing. Here, we used the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index (VI) data to assess Amazon forests' response to droughts, and compared the results with those from the standard (Collection 5 and Collection 6) MODIS VI data. Overall, the MAIAC data reveal more realistic Amazon forests inter-annual greenness dynamics than the standard MODIS data. Our results from the MAIAC data suggest that: (1) the droughts decreased the greenness (i.e., photosynthetic activity) of Amazon forests; (2) the Amazon wet season precipitation reduction induced by El Niño events could also lead to reduced photosynthetic activity of Amazon forests; and (3) in the subsequent year after the water stresses, the greenness of Amazon forests recovered from the preceding decreases. However, as previous research shows droughts cause Amazon forests to reduce investment in tissue maintenance and defense, it is not clear whether the photosynthesis of Amazon forests will continue to recover after future water stresses, because of the accumulated damages caused by the droughts.

Spatiotemporal analysis of hydro-meteorological drought in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

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Tan, Mou Leong; Chua, Vivien P.; Li, Cheng; Brindha, K.

2018-02-01

Assessment of historical hydro-meteorological drought is important to develop a robust drought monitoring and prediction system. This study aims to assess the historical hydro-meteorological drought of the Johor River Basin (JRB) from 1975 to 2010, an important basin for the population of southern Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were selected to represent the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Four absolute homogeneity tests were used to assess the rainfall data from 20 stations, and two stations were flagged by these tests. Results indicate the SPI duration to be comparatively low (3 months), and drier conditions occur over the upper JRB. The annual SSI had a strong decreasing trend at 95% significance level, showing that human activities such as reservoir construction and agriculture (oil palm) have a major influence on streamflow in the middle and lower basin. In addition, moderate response rate of SSI to SPI was found, indicating that hydrological drought could also have occurred in normal climate condition. Generally, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Madden Julian Oscillation have greater impacts on drought events in the basin. Findings of this study could be beneficial for future drought projection and water resources management.

Exploring the linkage between drought, high temperatures, and hydrologic sensitivities: A case study of the 2012 Great Plains drought.

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Livneh, B.; Hoerling, M. P.

2014-12-01

The occurrence of drought is associated with agricultural loss, water supply shortfalls, and other economic impacts. Here we explore the physical relationships between precipitation deficits, high temperatures, and hydrologic responses as a pathway to better anticipate drought impacts. Current methodologies to predict hydrologic scarcity include local monitoring of river flows, remote sensing of land-surface wetness, drought indices, expert judgment, climate indices (e.g. SST-relationships) and the application of hydrologic models. At longer lead times, predictions of drought have most frequently been made on the basis of GCM ensembles, with subsequent downscaling of those to scales over which hydrologic predictions can be made. This study focuses on two important aspects of drought. First, we explore the causal hydro-climatic timeline of a drought event, namely (a) the lack of precipitation, which serves to reduce soil moisture and produce (b) a skewed Bowen ratio, i.e. comparatively more sensible heating (warming) with less ET, resulting in (c) anomalously warm conditions. We seek to assess the extent to which the lack of precipitation contributes to warming temperatures, and the further effects of that warming on hydrology and the severity of drought impacts. An ensemble of GCM simulations will be used to explore the evolution of the land surface energy budget during a recent Great Plains drought event, which will subsequently be used to drive a hydrologic model. Second, we examine the impacts of the critical assumptions relating climatic variables with water demand, specifically the relationship between potential evapotranspiration (PET) and temperature. The common oversimplification in relating PET to temperature is explored against a more physically consistent energy balance estimate of PET, using the Penman-Monteith approach and the hydrologic impacts are presented. Results from this work are anticipated to have broad relevance for future water management

Evaluation of Drought Tolerance in 16 Genotypes of Safflower(Carthamus tinctoriusL

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s.M Azimzadeh

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract In order to study drought tolerance of 16 genotypes of safflower an experiment was conducted in Research Farm of Shirvan Islamic Azad University during 2005 –2006 growing season. The experiment was performed as randomized complete block design with 4 replications in two separate irrigated and rainfed conditions. The seed rate was 20 seed per square meter, hand planted in each plot. During growing season some agronomic traits including number of grains per heads, grain yield of total head per plant, TKW and grain yield per hectare were recorded. To select drought tolerant genotypes 4 methods including stress tolerance index, stress susceptibility index, cell membrane stability and relative water content were applied. The results showed that two genotypes of LRV-51-51 and CW74 had the highest drought tolerance index and the lowest drought susceptibility index compared with the other genotypes. Grain yield of these two genotypes was 1520 and 1452 kg/ha, respectively which were more than other genotypes. According to these traits the genotypes LRV-51-51 and CW74 are recommended to plant in dry regions with low annual rainfall. Keywords: Safflower, Drought tolerance index, Drought susceptibility index, Yield

Bacterial mediated amelioration of drought stress in drought tolerant ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Bacterial mediated amelioration of drought stress in drought tolerant and susceptible cultivars of rice ( Oryza sativa L.) ... and IR-64 (drought sensitive) cultivars of rice (Oryza sativa L.) under different level of drought stress. ... from 32 Countries:.

Changes in Stream Flow and Their Relationships with Climatic Variations and Anthropogenic Activities in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

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Chaojun Gu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The Poyang Lake Basin has been suffering from severe water problems such as floods and droughts. This has led to great adverse impacts on local ecosystems and water resource utilization. It is therefore important to understand stream flow changes and their driving factors. In this paper, the dynamics of stream flow and precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin between 1961 and 2012 were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall test, Theil–Sen approaches, Pettitt test, and Pearson’s correlation. Stream flow was measured at the outlets of five major tributaries of Poyang Lake, while precipitation was recorded by fourteen meteorological stations located within the Poyang Lake Basin. Results showed that annual stream flow of all tributaries and the precipitation over the study area had insignificant (P > 0.1 temporal trends and change points, while significant trends and shifts were found in monthly scale. Stream flow concentration indices (SCI at Waizhou, Meigang, and Wanjiabu stations showed significant (P < 0.05 decreasing trends with change points emerging in 1984 at Waizhou and 1978 at Wanjiabu, while there was no significant temporal trend and change point detected for the precipitation concentration indices (PCI. Correlation analysis indicated that area-average stream flow was closely related to area-average precipitation, but area-average SCI was insignificantly correlated with area-average PCI after change point (1984. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO had greater impacts on stream flow than other climate indices, and La Niña events played a more important role in stream flow changes than EI Niño. Human activities, particularly in terms of reservoir constructions, largely altered the intra-annual distribution of stream flow but its effects on the amount of stream flow were relatively low. Results of this study provided a useful reference to regional water resource management and the prevention of flood and drought disasters.

Asia’s glaciers are a regionally important buffer against drought

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Pritchard, Hamish D.

2017-05-01

The high mountains of Asia—encompassing the Himalayas, the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Pamir Alai, Kunlun Shan, and Tian Shan mountains—have the highest concentration of glaciers globally, and 800 million people depend in part on meltwater from them. Water stress makes this region vulnerable economically and socially to drought, but glaciers are a uniquely drought-resilient source of water. Here I show that these glaciers provide summer meltwater to rivers and aquifers that is sufficient for the basic needs of 136 million people, or most of the annual municipal and industrial needs of Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. During drought summers, meltwater dominates water inputs to the upper Indus and Aral river basins. Uncertainties in mountain precipitation are poorly known, but, given the magnitude of this water supply, predicted glacier loss would add considerably to drought-related water stress. Such additional water stress increases the risk of social instability, conflict and sudden, uncontrolled population migrations triggered by water scarcity, which is already associated with the large and rapidly growing populations and hydro-economies of these basins.

Developing drought impact functions for drought risk management

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S. Bachmair

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Drought management frameworks are dependent on methods for monitoring and prediction, but quantifying the hazard alone is arguably not sufficient; the negative consequences that may arise from a lack of precipitation must also be predicted if droughts are to be better managed. However, the link between drought intensity, expressed by some hydrometeorological indicator, and the occurrence of drought impacts has only recently begun to be addressed. One challenge is the paucity of information on ecological and socioeconomic consequences of drought. This study tests the potential for developing empirical drought impact functions based on drought indicators (Standardized Precipitation and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index as predictors and text-based reports on drought impacts as a surrogate variable for drought damage. While there have been studies exploiting textual evidence of drought impacts, a systematic assessment of the effect of impact quantification method and different functional relationships for modeling drought impacts is missing. Using Southeast England as a case study we tested the potential of three different data-driven models for predicting drought impacts quantified from text-based reports: logistic regression, zero-altered negative binomial regression (hurdle model, and an ensemble regression tree approach (random forest. The logistic regression model can only be applied to a binary impact/no impact time series, whereas the other two models can additionally predict the full counts of impact occurrence at each time point. While modeling binary data results in the lowest prediction uncertainty, modeling the full counts has the advantage of also providing a measure of impact severity, and the counts were found to be reasonably predictable. However, there were noticeable differences in skill between modeling methodologies. For binary data the logistic regression and the random forest model performed similarly well based on

Water Storage, Mixing and Transit Times During a Multiyear Drought.

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Van der Velde, Y.; Visser, A.; Thaw, M.; Safeeq, M.

2017-12-01

From 2012 to 2016, a five year intensive drought occurred in the Californian Sierra Nevada. We use this drought period as an opportunity to investigate how catchment water storage, mixing and transit times changes from wet to dry conditions using long term datasets of river discharge, evapotranspiration, water quality, and multiple cosmogenic radioactive isotopes. Characteristic features of the test catchment (4.6 km2 , altitude 1660-2117 m) include a thick (>5m) unsaturated zone in deeply weathered granite mountain soils, snow melt and events of high intensity rainfall, dry summers and numerous wetland meadows along the stream. Our data and model analysis suggest that under drought conditions, river flow predominantly consist of deep groundwater tapped by deeply incised sections of the stream, while the wetlands hold on to their water just below the root system of its shallow rooting vegetation. In contrast, during wet periods, most runoff is generated on the flat riparian wetland meadows, while the regional groundwater system slowly refills itself as water makes its way through the thick unsaturated zones. Antecedent wet or dry years play an crucial role as antecedent wet years cause a substantial regional groundwater flow towards the riparian wetlands, filling up the riparian wetlands and yielding a much stronger discharge response of the wetlands to rainfall events than under antecedent dry years This interaction between the regional groundwater system and the local wetland systems weakens as the drought progresses and regional groundwater flow to the wetlands lessens. Although, due to the wet events in 2016-2017, the catchment fills up rapidly to pre-drought conditions, we show that water transit times and therefore likely the water quality will contain drought signs for several years to come. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS- XXXXXX

Drought, Agriculture, and Labor: Understanding Drought Impacts and Vulnerability in California

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Greene, C.

2015-12-01

Hazardous drought impacts are a product of not only the physical intensity of drought, but also the economic, social, and environmental characteristics of the region exposed to drought. Drought risk management requires understanding the complex links between the physical and human dimensions of drought. Yet, there is a research gap in identifying and explaining the socio-economic complexities of drought in the context of the first world, especially for economic and socially marginal groups who rely on seasonal and temporary jobs. This research uses the current drought in California as a case study to identify the socioeconomic impacts of drought on farmworker communities in California's San Joaquin Valley, with a specific focus on the relationship between drought and agricultural labor. Through both a narrative analysis of drought coverage in newspaper media, drought policy documents, and interviews with farmworkers, farmers, community based organizations, and government officials in the San Joaquin Valley, this research aims to highlight the different understandings and experiences of the human impacts of drought and drought vulnerability in order to better inform drought risk planning and policy.

Drought-Related Mortality in Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands: A Test Case for the FIA Annual Inventory System

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John D. Shaw

2006-01-01

Several years of drought in the Southwest United States are associated with widespread mortality in the pinyon-juniper forest type. A complex of drought, insects, and disease is responsible for pinyon mortality rates approaching 100 percent in some areas, while other areas have experienced little or no mortality. Implementation of the Forest Inventory and Analysis...

The influence of oceanic basins on drought and ecosystem dynamics in Northeast Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pereira, Marcos Paulo Santos; Justino, Flavio; Malhado, Ana Claudia Mendes; Barbosa, Humberto; Marengo, José

2014-01-01

The 2012 drought in Northeast Brazil was the harshest in decades, with potentially significant impacts on the vegetation of the unique semi-arid caatinga biome and on local livelihoods. Here, we use a coupled climate–vegetation model (CCM3-IBIS) to: (1) investigate the role of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in the 2012 drought, and; (2) evaluate the response of the caatinga vegetation to the 2012 climate extreme. Our results indicate that anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean were the primary factor forcing the 2012 drought, with Pacific Ocean SST having a larger role in sustaining typical climatic conditions in the region. The drought strongly influenced net primary production in the caatinga, causing a reduction in annual net ecosystem exchange indicating a reduction in amount of CO 2 released to the atmosphere. (letter)

Limited growth recovery after drought-induced forest dieback in very defoliated trees of two pine species

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Guillermo eGuada

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Mediterranean pine forests display high resilience after extreme climatic events such as severe droughts. However, recent dry spells causing growth decline and triggering forest dieback challenge the capacity of some forests to recover following major disturbances. To describe how resilient the responses of forests to drought can be, we quantified growth dynamics in plantations of two pine species (Scots pine, black pine located in south-eastern Spain and showing drought-triggered dieback. Radial growth was characterized at inter- (tree-ring width and intra-annual (xylogenesis scales in three defoliation levels. It was assumed that the higher defoliation the more negative the impact of drought on tree growth. Tree-ring width chronologies were built and xylogenesis was characterized three years after the last severe drought occurred. Annual growth data and the number of tracheids produced in different stages of xylem formation were related to climate data at several time scales. Drought negatively impacted growth of the most defoliated trees in both pine species. In Scots pine, xylem formation started earlier in the non-defoliated than in the most defoliated trees. Defoliated trees presented the shortest duration of the radial-enlargement phase in both species. On average the most defoliated trees formed 60% of the number of mature tracheids formed by the non-defoliated trees in both species. Since radial enlargement is the xylogenesis phase most tightly related to final growth, this explains why the most defoliated trees grew the least due to their altered xylogenesis phases. Our findings indicate a very limited resilience capacity of drought-defoliated Scots and black pines. Moreover, droughts produce legacy effects on xylogenesis of highly defoliated trees which could not recover previous growth rates and are thus more prone to die.

Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge

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Peterson, Thomas C.; Heim, Richard R.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Kaiser, Dale P.; Brooks, Harold; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Dole, Randall M.; Giovannettone, Jason P.; Guirguis, Kristen; Karl, Thomas R.; Katz, Richard W.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Ryberg, Karen R.; K Wolter, BS Silva; Schubert, Siegfried; Silva, Viviane B. S.; Stewart, Brooke C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Villarini, Gabriele; Vose, Russell S.; Walsh, John; Wehner, Michael; Wolock, David; Wolter, Klaus; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Wuebbles, Donald

2013-01-01

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

Long-term variation analysis of a tropical river's annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period

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Seyam, Mohammed; Othman, Faridah

2015-07-01

Studying the long-term changes of streamflow is an important tool for enhancing water resource and river system planning, design, and management. The aim of this work is to identify the long-term variations in annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period from 1961 to 2010 in the Selangor River, which is one of the main tropical rivers in Malaysia. Initially, the data underwent preliminary independence, normality, and homogeneity testing using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Shapiro-Wilk and Pettitt's tests, respectively. The work includes a study and analysis of the changes through nine variables describing the annual streamflow and variations in the yearly duration of high and low streamflows. The analyses were conducted via two time scales: yearly and sub-periodic. The sub-periods were obtained by segmenting the 50 years into seven sub-periods by two techniques, namely the change-point test and direct method. Even though analysis revealed nearly negligible changes in mean annual flow over the study period, the maximum annual flow generally increased while the minimum annual flow significantly decreased with respect to time. It was also observed that the variables describing the dispersion in streamflow continually increased with respect to time. An obvious increase was detected in the yearly duration of danger level of streamflow, a slight increase was noted in the yearly duration of warning and alert levels, and a slight decrease in the yearly duration of low streamflow was found. The perceived changes validate the existence of long-term changes in annual streamflow regime, which increase the probability of floods and droughts occurring in future. In light of the results, attention should be drawn to developing water resource management and flood protection plans in order to avert the harmful effects potentially resulting from the expected changes in annual streamflow regime.

Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Drought Indices Comparison in India

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Janardhanan, A.

2017-12-01

Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.

Hydrogeology and simulated groundwater flow and availability in the North Fork Red River aquifer, southwest Oklahoma, 1980–2013

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Smith, S. Jerrod; Ellis, John H.; Wagner, Derrick L.; Peterson, Steven M.

2017-09-28

definition of the aquifer extent and potentiometric surface, as well as a description of the textural and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The hydrogeologic framework was used in the construction of a numerical groundwater-flow model of the North Fork Red River aquifer described in this report. A conceptual model of aquifer inflows and outflows was developed for the North Fork Red River aquifer to constrain the construction and calibration of a numerical groundwater-flow model that reasonably represented the groundwater-flow system. The conceptual-model water budget estimated mean annual inflows to and outflows from the North Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2013 and included a sub-accounting of mean annual inflows and outflows for the portions of the aquifer that were upgradient and downgradient from Lake Altus. The numerical groundwater-flow model simulated the period 1980–2013 and was calibrated to water-table-altitude observations at selected wells, monthly base flow at selected streamgages, net streambed seepage as estimated for the conceptual model, and Lake Altus stage.Groundwater-availability scenarios were performed by using the calibrated numerical groundwater-flow model to (1) estimate the EPS pumping rate that guarantees a minimum 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of the aquifer, (2) quantify the potential effects of projected well withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical (10-year) drought on base flow and groundwater storage. The results of the groundwater-availability scenarios could be used by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board to reevaluate the maximum annual yield of groundwater from the North Fork Red River aquifer.EPS scenarios for the North Fork Red River aquifer were run for periods of 20, 40, and 50 years. The 20-, 40-, and 50-year EPS pumping rates under normal recharge conditions were 0.59, 0.52, and 0.52 acre-foot per acre per year, respectively. Given the 497

Variable coupling between sap-flow and transpiration in pine trees under drought conditions

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Preisler, Yakir; Tatarinov, Fyodor; Rohatyn, Shani; Rotenberg, Eyal; Grunzweig, Jose M.; Yakir, Dan

2016-04-01

Changes in diurnal patterns in water transport and physiological activities in response to changes in environmental conditions are important adjustments of trees to drought. The rate of sap flow (SF) in trees is expected to be in agreement with the rate of tree-scale transpiration (T) and provides a powerful measure of water transport in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. The aim of this five-years study was to investigate the temporal links between SF and T in Pinus halepensis exposed to extreme seasonal drought in the Yatir forest in Israel. We continuously measured SF (20 trees), the daily variations in stem diameter (ΔDBH, determined with high precision dendrometers; 8 trees), and ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET; eddy covariance), which were complemented with short-term campaigns of leaf-scale measurements of H2O and CO2 gas exchange, water potentials, and hydraulic conductivity. During the rainy season, tree SF was well synchronized with ecosystem ET, reaching maximum rates during midday in all trees. However, during the dry season, the daily SF trends greatly varied among trees, allowing a classification of trees into three classes: 1) Trees that remain with SF maximum at midday, 2) trees that advanced their SF peak to early morning, and 3) trees that delayed their SF peak to late afternoon hours. This classification remained valid for the entire study period (2010-2015), and strongly correlated with tree height and DBH, and to a lower degree with crown size and competition index. In the dry season, class 3 trees (large) tended to delay the timing of SF maximum to the afternoon, and to advance their maximum diurnal DBH to early morning, while class 2 trees (smaller) advanced their SF maximum to early morning and had maximum daily DBH during midday and afternoon. Leaf-scale transpiration (T), measurements showed a typical morning peak in all trees, irrespective of classification, and a secondary peak in the afternoon in large trees only. Water potential and

Spatio-temporal drought characteristics of the tropical Paraiba do Sul River Basin and responses to the Mega Drought in 2014-2016

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Nauditt, Alexandra; Metzke, Daniel; Ribbe, Lars

2017-04-01

The Paraiba do Sul River Basin (56.000 km2) supplies water to the Brazilian states Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Their large metropolitan areas were strongly affected by a Mega drought during the years 2014 and 2015 with severe implications for domestic water supply, the hydropower sector as well as for rural agricultural downstream regions. Longer drought periods are expected to become more frequent in the future. However, drought characteristics, low flow hydrology and the reasons for the recurrent water scarcity in this water abundant tropical region are still poorly understood. In order to separate the impact of human abstractions from hydro-climatic and catchment storage related hydrological drought propagation, we assessed the spatio-temporal distribution of drought severity and duration establishing relationships between SPI, SRI and discharge threshold drought anomalies for all subcatchments of the PdS based on a comprehensive hydro-meteorological data set of the Brazilian National Water Agency ANA. The water allocation model "Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP)" was established on a monthly basis for the entire Paraiba do Sul river basin incorporating human modifications of the hydrological system as major (hydropower) reservoirs and their operational rules, water diversions and major abstractions. It simulates reasonable discharges and reservoir levels comparable to the observed values. To evaluate the role of climate variability and drought responses for hydrological drought events, scenarios were developed to simulate discharge and reservoir level the impact of 1. Varying meteorological drought frequencies and durations and 2. Implementing operational rules as a response to drought. Uncertainties related to the drought assessment, modelling, parameter and input data were assessed. The outcome of this study for the first time provides an overview on the heterogeneous spatio-temporal drought characteristics of the Paraiba do Sul river basin and

The implications of drought and water conservation on the reuse of municipal wastewater: Recognizing impacts and identifying mitigation possibilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Quynh K; Jassby, David; Schwabe, Kurt A

2017-11-01

As water agencies continue to investigate opportunities to increase resilience and local water supply reliability in the face of drought and rising water scarcity, water conservation strategies and the reuse of treated municipal wastewater are garnering significant attention and adoption. Yet a simple water balance thought experiment illustrates that drought, and the conservation strategies that are often enacted in response to it, both likely limit the role reuse may play in improving local water supply reliability. For instance, as a particular drought progresses and agencies enact water conservation measures to cope with drought, influent flows likely decrease while influent pollution concentrations increase, particularly salinity, which adversely affects wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) costs and effluent quality and flow. Consequently, downstream uses of this effluent, whether to maintain streamflow and quality, groundwater recharge, or irrigation may be impacted. This is unfortunate since reuse is often heralded as a drought-proof mechanism to increase resilience. The objectives of this paper are two-fold. First, we illustrate-using a case study from Southern California during its most recent drought- how drought and water conservation strategies combine to reduce influent flow and quality and, subsequently, effluent flow and quality. Second, we use a recently developed regional water reuse decision support model (RWRM) to highlight cost-effective strategies that can be implemented to mitigate the impacts of drought on effluent water quality. While the solutions we identify cannot increase the flow of influent or effluent coming into or out of a treatment plant, they can improve the value of the remaining effluent in a cost-effective manner that takes into account the characteristics of its demand, whether it be for landscaping, golf courses, agricultural irrigation, or surface water augmentation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of climate change. V. Seasonal drought characteristics division and assessment in southern China].

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Wan-Hua; Sui, Yue; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Dai, Shu-Wei; Li, Mao-Song

2013-10-01

Zoning seasonal drought based on the study of drought characteristics can provide theoretical basis for formulating drought mitigation plans and improving disaster reduction technologies in different arid zones under global climate change. Based on the National standard of meteorological drought indices and agricultural drought indices and the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 268 meteorological stations in southern China, this paper analyzed the climatic background and distribution characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China, and made a three-level division of seasonal drought in this region by the methods of combining comprehensive factors and main factors, stepwise screening indices, comprehensive disaster analysis, and clustering analysis. The first-level division was with the annual aridity index and seasonal aridity index as the main indices and with the precipitation during entire year and main crop growing season as the auxiliary indices, dividing the southern China into four primary zones, including semi-arid zone, sub-humid zone, humid zone, and super-humid zone. On this basis, the four primary zones were subdivided into nine second-level zones, including one semi-arid area-temperate-cold semi-arid hilly area in Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau, three sub-humid areas of warm sub-humid area in the north of the Yangtze River, warm-tropical sub-humid area in South China, and temperate-cold sub-humid plateau area in Southwest China, three humid areas of temperate-tropical humid area in the Yangtze River Basin, warm-tropical humid area in South China, and warm humid hilly area in Southwest China, and two super-humid areas of warm-tropical super-humid area in South China and temperate-cold super-humid hilly area in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China. According to the frequency and intensity of multiple drought indices, the second-level zones were further divided into 29 third-level zones. The distribution of each seasonal drought zone was

Drought occurence

Science.gov (United States)

John W. Coulston

2007-01-01

Why Is Drought Important? Drought is an important forest disturbance that occurs regularly in the Western United States and irregularly in the Eastern United States (Dale and others 2001). Moderate drought stress tends to slow plant growth while severedrought stress can also reduce photosynthesis (Kareiva and others 1993). Drought can also interact with...

Drought-induced vegetation stress in southwestern North America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xiaoyang; Goldberg, Mitchell; Tarpley, Dan; Kogan, Felix; Yu Yunyue; Friedl, Mark A; Morisette, Jeffrey

2010-01-01

Trends towards earlier greenup and increased average greenness have been widely reported in both humid and dry ecosystems. By analyzing NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) data from 1982 to 2007, we report complex trends in both the growing season amplitude and seasonally integrated vegetation greenness in southwestern North America and further highlight regions consistently experiencing drought stress. In particular, greenness measurements from 1982 to 2007 show an increasing trend in grasslands but a decreasing trend in shrublands. However, vegetation greenness in this period has experienced a strong cycle, increasing from 1982 to 1993 but decreasing from 1993 to 2007. The significant decrease during the last decade has reduced vegetation greenness by 6% in shrublands and 13% in grasslands (16% and 21%, respectively, in the severe drought years). The greenness cycle correlates to both annual precipitation and dry season length derived from NOAA North America Regional Reanalysis data. If drought events continue as predicted by climate models, they will exacerbate ecosystem degradation and reduce carbon uptake.

Comprehensive drought characteristics analysis based on a nonlinear multivariate drought index

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Yang, Jie; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Li, Yunyun; Hu, Hui; Chen, Yutong; Huang, Qiang; Yao, Jun

2018-02-01

It is vital to identify drought events and to evaluate multivariate drought characteristics based on a composite drought index for better drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources. However, most composite drought indices are constructed by the linear combination, principal component analysis and entropy weight method assuming a linear relationship among different drought indices. In this study, the multidimensional copulas function was applied to construct a nonlinear multivariate drought index (NMDI) to solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship due to its dependence structure and flexibility. The NMDI was constructed by combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural variables (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) to better reflect the multivariate variables simultaneously. Based on the constructed NMDI and runs theory, drought events for a particular area regarding three drought characteristics: duration, peak, and severity were identified. Finally, multivariate drought risk was analyzed as a tool for providing reliable support in drought decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) multidimensional copulas can effectively solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship among multivariate variables; (2) compared with single and other composite drought indices, the NMDI is slightly more sensitive in capturing recorded drought events; and (3) drought risk shows a spatial variation; out of the five partitions studied, the Jing River Basin as well as the upstream and midstream of the Wei River Basin are characterized by a higher multivariate drought risk. In general, multidimensional copulas provides a reliable way to solve the nonlinear relationship when constructing a comprehensive drought index and evaluating multivariate drought characteristics.

Proteomic responses of drought-tolerant and drought-sensitive cotton varieties to drought stress.

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Zhang, Haiyan; Ni, Zhiyong; Chen, Quanjia; Guo, Zhongjun; Gao, Wenwei; Su, Xiujuan; Qu, Yanying

2016-06-01

Drought, one of the most widespread factors reducing agricultural crop productivity, affects biological processes such as development, architecture, flowering and senescence. Although protein analysis techniques and genome sequencing have made facilitated the proteomic study of cotton, information on genetic differences associated with proteomic changes in response to drought between different cotton genotypes is lacking. To determine the effects of drought stress on cotton seedlings, we used two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (2-DE) and matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry to comparatively analyze proteome of drought-responsive proteins during the seedling stage in two cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) cultivars, drought-tolerant KK1543 and drought-sensitive Xinluzao26. A total of 110 protein spots were detected on 2-DE maps, of which 56 were identified by MALDI-TOF and MALDI-TOF/TOF mass spectrometry. The identified proteins were mainly associated with metabolism (46.4 %), antioxidants (14.2 %), and transport and cellular structure (23.2 %). Some key proteins had significantly different expression patterns between the two genotypes. In particular, 5-methyltetrahydropteroyltriglutamate-homocysteine methyltransferase, UDP-D-glucose pyrophosphorylase and ascorbate peroxidase were up-regulated in KK1543 compared with Xinluzao26. Under drought stress conditions, the vacuolar H(+)-ATPase catalytic subunit, a 14-3-3g protein, translation initiation factor 5A and pathogenesis-related protein 10 were up-regulated in KK1543, whereas ribosomal protein S12, actin, cytosolic copper/zinc superoxide dismutase, protein disulfide isomerase, S-adenosylmethionine synthase and cysteine synthase were down-regulated in Xinluzao26. This work represents the first characterization of proteomic changes that occur in response to drought in roots of cotton plants. These differentially expressed proteins may be related to

The relative influence of climate and catchment properties on hydrological drought

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Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Koffler, Daniel

2014-05-01

Studying hydrological drought (a below-normal water availability in groundwater, lakes and streams) is important to society and the ecosystem, but can also reveal interesting information about catchment functioning. This information can later be used for predicting drought in ungauged basins and to inform water management decisions. In this study, we used an extensive Austrian dataset of discharge measurements in clusters of catchments and combine this dataset with thematic information on climate and catchment properties. Our aim was to study the relative effects of climate and catchment characteristics on drought duration and deficit and on hydrological drought typology. Because the climate of the region is roughly uniform, our hypothesis was that the effect of differences of catchment properties would stand out. From time series of precipitation and discharge we identified droughts with the widely-used threshold level approach, defining a drought when a variable falls below a pre-defined threshold representing the regime. Drought characteristics that were analysed are drought duration and deficit. We also applied the typology of Van Loon & Van Lanen (2012). To explain differences in drought characteristics between catchments we did a correlation analysis with climate and catchment characteristics, based on Pearson correlation. We found very interesting patterns in the correlations of drought characteristics with climate and catchment properties: 1) Droughts with long duration (mean and maximum) and composite droughts are related to catchments with a high BFI (high baseflow) and a high percentage of shallow groundwater tables. 2) The deficit (mean and maximum) of both meteorological droughts and hydrological droughts is strongly related to catchment humidity, in this case quantified by average annual precipitation. 3) The hydrological drought types that are related to snow, i.e. cold snow season drought and snow melt drought, occur in catchments that are have a

Amazon Forests’ Response to Droughts: A Perspective from the MAIAC Product

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Jian Bi

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Amazon forests experienced two severe droughts at the beginning of the 21st century: one in 2005 and the other in 2010. How Amazon forests responded to these droughts is critical for the future of the Earth’s climate system. It is only possible to assess Amazon forests’ response to the droughts in large areal extent through satellite remote sensing. Here, we used the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS vegetation index (VI data to assess Amazon forests’ response to droughts, and compared the results with those from the standard (Collection 5 and Collection 6 MODIS VI data. Overall, the MAIAC data reveal more realistic Amazon forests inter-annual greenness dynamics than the standard MODIS data. Our results from the MAIAC data suggest that: (1 the droughts decreased the greenness (i.e., photosynthetic activity of Amazon forests; (2 the Amazon wet season precipitation reduction induced by El Niño events could also lead to reduced photosynthetic activity of Amazon forests; and (3 in the subsequent year after the water stresses, the greenness of Amazon forests recovered from the preceding decreases. However, as previous research shows droughts cause Amazon forests to reduce investment in tissue maintenance and defense, it is not clear whether the photosynthesis of Amazon forests will continue to recover after future water stresses, because of the accumulated damages caused by the droughts.

Analysis for Drought Resilience of Monoculture on Climate Change

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Jung, Seungkwon; Kang, Hyunjoong; Maeng, Seungjin

2015-04-01

Damage occur frequently around the world on climate change, and Korea is no exception. Drought of natural disasters caused by climate change is having a significant impact on crops. Therefore, established for adaptation measures of drought are needed. Recently resilience concept is based on the study to analyze the natural disaster has conducted actively. Uses a different definition for each researcher because of the complexity of resilience concept on the studies of the natural disaster and commonly contains the meaning of "Ability to resist changes in pressure by external force. In this study, the cabbage-growing areas in the Chungcheong utilizing Statistical Annual Report(2013) from past 2007 to 2012 were analyzed by region per unit area yield of Chinese cabbage. Determination of the occurrence and intensity of the drought were utilizing SPEI(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration). Configure the drought scenario was based on the result that SPEI index, cabbage yield per unit area (kg/10a) analyzed the regional drought resilience for a single crop by comparison. As a result, the average Chinese cabbage yield per unit area is the same when drought occurs Cheongyang, YeSan, SeoSan, Asan, GongJu, CheongJu came out in the order, Chungnam Chinese cabbage yield (kg / 10a) was higher than 10% of the value of Chungbuk in Republic of Korea. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (12-TI-C01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Mercury and drought along the lower Carson River, Nevada: II. Snowy egret and black-crowned night-heron reproduction on Lahontan Reservoir, 1997-2006

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Hill, Elwood F.; Henry, Charles J.; Grove, Robert A.

2008-01-01

Mercury concentrations in the floodplain of the Carson River Basin in northwestern Nevada are some of the highest ever reported in a natural system. Thus, a portion of the basin including Lahontan Reservoir was placed on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Natural Priorities List for research and cleanup. Preliminary studies indicated that reproduction in piscivorous birds may be at risk. Therefore, a 10-year study (1997–2006) was conducted to evaluate reproduction of snowy egrets (Egretta thula) and black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) nesting on Gull Island in Lahontan Reservoir. Special attention was given to the annual flow of the Carson River, the resultant fluctuation of this irrigation reservoir, and the annual exposure of snowy egrets and night-herons to methylmercury (MeHg). The dynamic character of the river due to flooding and drought (drought effect) influenced snowy egret and night-heron reproduction more so than did MeHg contamination of eggs. During an extended drought (2000–2004) in the middle of the study, snowy egret nests containing eggs with concentrations of MeHg (measured as total mercury [THg] ∼ 100% MeHg) ≥0.80 μg THg/g, ww, all failed, but in 1997 and 2006 (wet years with general flooding), substantial numbers of young were produced (but fewer than at nests where eggs contained reproductive threshold of tolerance to MeHg may be associated with habitat quality (food type and abundance). Clearly, drought was the most important factor affecting snowy egret annual productivity. In contrast to snowy egrets, night-herons generally had fewer nests meeting the 0.80 μg THg/g criterion, and those above the criterion were less sensitive to mercury than were snowy egrets. Furthermore, night-herons appeared more tolerant of drought conditions than snowy egrets because they nested earlier, selected more protected nesting sites, and had a more generalist diet that provided additional food options including terrestrial

Incorporation of GRACE Data into a Bayesian Model for Groundwater Drought Monitoring

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Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.; Porter, A.

2015-12-01

Groundwater drought, defined as the sustained occurrence of below average availability of groundwater, is marked by below average water levels in aquifers and reduced flows to groundwater-fed rivers and wetlands. The impact of groundwater drought on ecosystems, agriculture, municipal water supply, and the energy sector is an increasingly important global issue. However, current drought monitors heavily rely on precipitation and vegetative stress indices to characterize the timing, duration, and severity of drought events. The paucity of in situ observations of aquifer levels is a substantial obstacle to the development of systems to monitor groundwater drought in drought-prone areas, particularly in developing countries. Observations from the NASA/German Space Agency's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been used to estimate changes in groundwater storage over areas with sparse point measurements. This study incorporates GRACE total water storage observations into a Bayesian framework to assess the performance of a probabilistic model for monitoring groundwater drought based on remote sensing data. Overall, it is hoped that these methods will improve global drought preparedness and risk reduction by providing information on groundwater drought necessary to manage its impacts on ecosystems, as well as on the agricultural, municipal, and energy sectors.

Net ecosystem carbon exchange in three contrasting Mediterranean ecosystems – the effect of drought

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T. S. David

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Droughts reduce gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco, contributing to most of the inter-annual variability in terrestrial carbon sequestration. In seasonally dry climates (Mediterranean, droughts result from reductions in annual rainfall and changes in rain seasonality. We compared carbon fluxes measured by the eddy covariance technique in three contrasting ecosystems in southern Portugal: an evergreen oak woodland (savannah-like with ca.~21% tree crown cover, a grassland dominated by herbaceous annuals and a coppiced short-rotation eucalyptus plantation. During the experimental period (2003–2006 the eucalyptus plantation was always the strongest sink for carbon: net ecosystem exchange rate (NEE between −861 and −399 g C m−2 year−1. The oak woodland and the grassland were much weaker sinks for carbon: NEE varied in the oak woodland between −140 and −28 g C m−2 year−1 and in the grassland between −190 and +49 g C m−2 year−1. The eucalyptus stand had higher GPP and a lower proportion of GPP spent in respiration than the other systems. The higher GPP resulted from high leaf area duration (LAD, as a surrogate for the photosynthetic photon flux density absorbed by the canopy. The eucalyptus had also higher rain use efficiency (GPP per unit of rain volume and light use efficiency (the daily GPP per unit incident photosynthetic photon flux density than the other two ecosystems. The effects of a severe drought could be evaluated during the hydrological-year (i.e., from October to September of 2004–2005. Between October 2004 and June 2005 the precipitation was only 40% of the long-term average. In 2004–2005 all ecosystems had GPP lower than in wetter years and carbon sequestration was strongly restricted (less negative NEE. The grassland was a net source of carbon dioxide (+49 g C m−2 year−1. In the oak woodland a large proportion of GPP resulted from carbon assimilated by its annual vegetation

The Lifecycles of Drought: Informing Responses Across Timescales

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Pulwarty, R. S.; Schubert, S. D.

2014-12-01

Drought is a slow-onset hazard that is a normal part of climate. Drought onset and demise are difficult to determine. Impacts are mostly nonstructural, spread over large geographical areas, and can persist long after precipitation deficits end. These factors hinder development of accurate, timely estimates of drought severity and resultant responses. Drivers of drought range from SST anomalies and global scale atmospheric response, through regional forcing and local land-surface feedbacks. Key climatological questions related to drought risk assessment, perception and management include, "Does a drought end by a return to normal precipitation; how much moisture is required and over what period; can the end of a drought be defined by the diminishing impacts e.g. soil moisture, reservoir volumes; will precipitation patterns on which management systems rely, change in the future?" Effective early warning systems inform strategic responses that anticipate crises and crisis evolution across climate timescales. While such "early information" is critical for defining event onset, it is even more critical for identifying the potential for increases in severity. Many social and economic systems have buffers in place to respond to onset (storage, transfers and purchase of grain) but lack response capabilities as drought intensifies, as buffers are depleted. Throughout the drought lifecycle (and between events), monitoring, research and risk assessments are required to: Map decision-making processes and resource capabilities including degradation of water and ecosystems Place multiple climate and land surface indicators within a consistent triggering framework (e.g. climate and vegetation mapping) before critical thresholds are reached Identify policies and practices that impede or enable the flow of information, through policy gaming and other exercises The presentation will outline the capabilities and framework needed to ensure improved scientific inputs to preparedness

Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

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Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

2014-05-01

By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest

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Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.

2017-12-01

The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative

Drought periods in non-mountainous part of South Bulgaria on the background of climate change

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Nikolova Nina

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The scientific investigations and various analyses show a trend towards a significant extension of water scarcity across Europe. Decreasing of precipitation totals and increasing of drought periods are characteristic for many regions of Bulgaria. Often high temperatures, strong winds and low relative humidity occur in conjunction with the drought. This makes the drought very strong expressed. The present work aims to analyze drought periods in South Bulgaria in terms of its temporal variability, intensity, seasonal and territorial differences. The study areas are one of the main agricultural areas in Bulgaria and because of this investigation of drought in this region is very important. Drought periods are investigated on the base of seasonal precipitation totals and precipitation indices. The data for monthly precipitation from nine meteorological stations situated at the regions with different geographical conditions are used. The deviations of the seasonal and annual precipitation from normal (precipitation for the period 1961-1990 are used to determine drought periods in investigated stations. The duration of drought event is determined by Cumulative Precipitation Anomalies (CA. The Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI are calculated in order to determine moisture conditions and occurrence of drought periods in the investigated stations. The results from the research show that drought was widespread in 1945 and 1949. The years with dry seasons are more often during 80’s and 90’s but drought during these periods was observed in a few of the investigated stations.

Overexploitation and cumulative drought trend effect on Ras El Ain karstic spring discharge (Khabour Sub-basin, Syria)

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Abou Zakhem, Boulos; Kattaa, Bassam

2017-10-01

The effects of climate change and overexploitation are being strongly perceived in the studied area and the springs discharge is obviously affected. In this paper, Ras El Ain spring discharge and precipitation were analyzed by normalized methods on an yearly timescale. The deficit of Ras El Ain spring discharge due to overexploitation factors and drought effects was estimated. Cumulative drought analyses were carried out using SPI10 and SQI10. Finally, the decreasing trends of the spring discharge due to the deficiency in rainfall were analyzed. The main results reveal that the annual mean deficit of Ras El Ain spring discharge due to overpumping was between 32 and 45%, whereas, annual mean deficit related to drought was between 22 and 35% on average, during the last 30 years (post-1984). The moving averages of SPI and SQI delineate very well the drought periods during last three decades. The cumulative droughts using SPI10 and SQI10 reveal that wet period (pre-1984) with positive values was characterized by high precipitation and spring discharge. Overexploitation period (1984-1989) is distinguished by decreasing SQI10 values whereas, SPI10 is almost stable. The response of the karst system to the precipitation signal has been changed, during the drought period (1990-2000), and the spring behaviour has been modified due to the first overexploitation period. Finally, overexploitation period (2001-2008) is related to the second phase of groundwater intensive pumping for irrigation purposes. Consequently, this period is completely catastrophic causing the drying up of the spring. The decreasing trends analyzed using DPI and DQI showed annual decreasing rates relative to the mean values of -0.268% and -0.105%, respectively. Thus, the results of theoretical model reveal that precipitation will decrease by about DPI = -20.7% and the discharge will decline by about -9.2% by 2050. Consequently, the declining discharge due to climatic variation under natural conditions as

Automated Monitoring of Carbon Fluxes in a Northern Rocky Mountain Forest Indicates Above-Average Net Primary Productivity During the 2015 Western U.S. Drought

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Stenzel, J.; Hudiburg, T. W.

2016-12-01

As global temperatures rise in the 21st century, "hotter" droughts will become more intense and persistent, particularly in areas which already experience seasonal drought. Because forests represent a large and persistent terrestrial carbon sink which has previously offset a significant proportion of anthropogenic carbon emissions, forest carbon cycle responses to drought have become a prominent research concern. However, robust mechanistic modeling of carbon balance responses to projected drought effects requires improved observation-driven representations of carbon cycle processes; many such component processes are rarely monitored in complex terrain, are modeled or unrepresented quantities at eddy covariance sites, or are monitored at course temporal scales that are not conducive to elucidating process responses at process time scales. In the present study, we demonstrate the use of newly available and affordable automated dendrometers for the estimation of intra-seasonal Net Primary Productivity (NPP) in a Northern Rocky Mountain conifer forest which is impacted by seasonal drought. Results from our pilot study suggest that NPP was restricted by mid-summer moisture deficit under the extraordinary 2015 Western U.S. drought, with greater than 90% off stand growth occurring prior to August. Examination of growth on an inter-annual scale, however, suggests that the study site experienced above-average NPP during this exceptionally hot year. Taken together, these findings indicate that intensifying mid-summer drought in regional forests has affected the timing but has not diminished the magnitude of this carbon flux. By employing automated instrumentation for the intra-annual assessment of NPP, we reveal that annual NPP in regional forests is largely determined before mid-summer and is therefore surprisingly resilient to intensities of seasonal drought that exceed normal conditions of the 20th century.

Wheat yield loss attributable to heat waves, drought and water excess at the global, national and subnational scales

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Zampieri, M.; Ceglar, A.; Dentener, F.; Toreti, A.

2017-06-01

Heat waves and drought are often considered the most damaging climatic stressors for wheat. In this study, we characterize and attribute the effects of these climate extremes on wheat yield anomalies (at global and national scales) from 1980 to 2010. Using a combination of up-to-date heat wave and drought indexes (the latter capturing both excessively dry and wet conditions), we have developed a composite indicator that is able to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of the underlying physical processes in the different agro-climatic regions of the world. At the global level, our diagnostic explains a significant portion (more than 40%) of the inter-annual production variability. By quantifying the contribution of national yield anomalies to global fluctuations, we have found that just two concurrent yield anomalies affecting the larger producers of the world could be responsible for more than half of the global annual fluctuations. The relative importance of heat stress and drought in determining the yield anomalies depends on the region. Moreover, in contrast to common perception, water excess affects wheat production more than drought in several countries. We have also performed the same analysis at the subnational level for France, which is the largest wheat producer of the European Union, and home to a range of climatic zones. Large subnational variability of inter-annual wheat yield is mostly captured by the heat and water stress indicators, consistently with the country-level result.

Analysis of catchments response to severe drought event for ...

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Nafiisah

The run sum analysis method was a sound method which indicates in ... intensity and duration of stream flow depletion between nearby catchments. ... threshold level analysis method, and allows drought events to be described in more.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of historical droughts over Canada: role of observational uncertainties and teleconnections

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Asong, Z. E.; Wheater, H. S.; Bonsal, B. R.; Razavi, S.; Kurkute, S.

2017-12-01

Drought is a naturally occurring environmental phenomenon, and a major costly natural hazard that can have devastating impacts on regional water resources, agriculture, energy and other social-ecological systems. Of particular interest here is drought occurrence over Canada, where drought is both a frequent and damaging phenomenon, particularly in the interior Prairie region. However, nation-wide drought assessments are currently lacking and hampered partly by observational uncertainties. Therefore, this study aims to fill these gaps by providing a comprehensive analysis of historical droughts over the whole of Canada, including the role of observational uncertainties and teleconnectivity. This is carried out by analysing different monthly precipitation and temperature products for the period 1950 - 2013. Drought events are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over various temporal scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 consecutive months and 6 months from April to September and 12 months from October to September). First, trends in the SPEI are investigated by means of the Modified Mann Kendall test, while the Pettitt test was used to detect change points/transition years during the period of record. Major spatial patterns of long-term change, inter/intra-annual variability and periodicity of drought events are then characterized using the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function, and Continuous Wavelet Transform techniques. In addition, potential key drivers of drought are investigated using Wavelet Coherence Analysis, with a special emphasis on the role played by large-scale modes of climate variability. This provides important insight into the physical and dynamical mechanisms associated with the variability of drought events over different Canadian sub-regions.

Physiological and photosynthetic response of quinoa to drought stress

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Rachid Fghire

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Water shortage is a critical problem touching plant growth and yield in semi-arid areas, for instance the Mediterranean región. For this reason was studied the physiological basis of drought tolerance of a new, drought tolerant crop quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd. tested in Morocco in two successive seasons, subject to four irrigation treatments (100, 50, and 33%ETc, and rainfed. The chlorophyll a fluorescence transients were analyzed by the JIP-test to transíate stress-induced damage in these transients to changes in biophysical parameter's allowing quantification of the energy flow through the photosynthetic apparatus. Drought stress induced a significant decrease in the maximum quantum yield of primary photochemistry (Φpo = Fv/Fm, and the quantum yield of electron transport (Φeo. The amount of active Photosystem II (PSII reaction centers (RC per excited cross section (RC/CS also decreased when exposed to the highest drought stress. The effective antenna size of active RCs (ABS/RC increased and the effective dissipation per active reaction centers (DIo/RC increased by increasing drought stress during the growth season in comparison to the control. However the performance index (PI, was a very sensitive indicator of the physiological status of plants. Leaf area index, leaf water potential and stomatal conductance decreased as the drought increased. These results indicate that, in quinoa leaf, JIP-test can be used as a sensitive method for measuring drought stress effects.

Evaluation of drought stress tolerance in promising lines of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. using drought resistance indices

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Akbar Shabani

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. is an annual grain legume or “pulse crop” that is 2th legume after soybean in the world and was cultivated in 60 country. Legume, spatially chickpea is the most important tolerant crop in arid and semi-arid country in western of Asia such as Iran. Chickpea can growth in poor soil and undesirable environment conditions. Drought is an important factors that influencing chickpea production and quality. As area of cultivation is in dryland conditions thus aim of researches is reach to tolerant genotypes. The objective of current study was to evaluate the genetic variation and drought resistance advanced genotypes in chickpea Materials and methods For investigation of genetic variation and drought resistance, 64 advanced genotypes were evaluated in a simple latis (LD with two replications under normal and drought stress conditions in deputy of Dryland Agricultural Research Institute of Kermanshah during 2013-2014 cropping season. Plant spacing was as plots with four rows in 4 m in length, 30 cm apart. The seed were sowed in row with 10 cm distance and the seeding rate was 33 seeds per m2 for all plots. At maturity stage after separation of border effects from each plot, grain yield was measured. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS, SPSS and STATISTICA packages. some drought resistance indices such as mean productivity (MP, geometric mean productivity (GMP, harmonic mean (HAM, stress tolerance index (STI, stress susceptibility index (SSI, yield index (YI, K1 and K2 were measured based on yield in both conditions. Also we used stress tolerance score (STS method for selection genotypes according to all indices. Results and discussion Study on correlation between Yp, Ys and drought resistance indices showed that Yp and Ys had positive and significant correlated with MP, GMP, STI, YI, HAM, K1 and K2 thus these indices were the most suitable drought tolerance criteria for screening of chickpea

El Niño drought increased canopy turnover in Amazon forests.

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Leitold, Veronika; Morton, Douglas C; Longo, Marcos; Dos-Santos, Maiza Nara; Keller, Michael; Scaranello, Marcos

2018-03-25

Amazon droughts, including the 2015-2016 El Niño, may reduce forest net primary productivity and increase canopy tree mortality, thereby altering both the short- and the long-term net forest carbon balance. Given the broad extent of drought impacts, inventory plots or eddy flux towers may not capture regional variability in forest response to drought. We used multi-temporal airborne Lidar data and field measurements of coarse woody debris to estimate patterns of canopy turnover and associated carbon losses in intact and fragmented forests in the central Brazilian Amazon between 2013-2014 and 2014-2016. Average annualized canopy turnover rates increased by 65% during the drought period in both intact and fragmented forests. The average size and height of turnover events was similar for both time intervals, in contrast to expectations that the 2015-2016 El Niño drought would disproportionally affect large trees. Lidar-biomass relationships between canopy turnover and field measurements of coarse woody debris were modest (R 2  ≈ 0.3), given similar coarse woody debris production and Lidar-derived changes in canopy volume from single tree and multiple branch fall events. Our findings suggest that El Niño conditions accelerated canopy turnover in central Amazon forests, increasing coarse woody debris production by 62% to 1.22 Mg C ha -1  yr -1 in drought years . No claim to original US Government works New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Physiological response to drought stress in Camptotheca acuminata seedlings from two provenances

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Yeqing eYing

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Drought stress is a key environmental factor limiting the growth and productivity of plants. The purpose of this study was to investigate the physiological responses of Camptotheca acuminata (C. acuminata to different drought stresses and compare the drought tolerance between the provenances Kunming (KM and Nanchang (NC, which are naturally distributed in different rainfall zones with annual rainfalls of 1000-1100 mm and 1600-1700 mm, respectively. We determined relative water content (RWC, chlorophyll content (Chl(a+b, net photosynthesis (Pn, gas exchange parameters, relative leakage conductivity (REC, malondialdehyde (MDA content and superoxide dismutase (SOD and peroxidase (POD activities of C. acuminata seedlings under both moderate (50% of maximum field capacity and severe drought stress (30% of maximum field capacity. As the degree of water stress increased, RWC, Chl(a+b content, Pn, stomatal conductance (Gs, transpiration rate (Tr and intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci values decreased, but water use efficiency (WUE, REC, MDA content and SOD and POD activities increased in provenances KM and NC. Under moderate and severe drought stress, provenance KM had higher RWC, Chl(a+b, Pn, WUE, SOD and POD and lower Gs, Tr, Ci and REC in leaves than provenance NC. The results indicated that provenance KM may maintain stronger drought tolerance via improvements in water-retention capacity, antioxidant enzyme activity and membrane integrity.

Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Van Loon, Anne F.; Stahl, Kerstin; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Clark, Julian; Rangecroft, Sally; Wanders, Niko; Gleeson, Tom; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Hannaford, Jamie; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Hannah, David M.; Sheffield, Justin; Svoboda, Mark; Verbeiren, Boud; Wagener, Thorsten; Van Lanen, Henny A. J.

2016-09-01

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what

Adaptation responses to increasing drought frequency

Science.gov (United States)

Loch, A. J.; Adamson, D. C.; Schwabe, K.

2016-12-01

Using state contingent analysis we discuss how and why irrigators adapt to alternative water supply signals. This analysis approach helps to illustrate how and why producers currently use state-general and state-allocable inputs to adapt and respond to known and possible future climatic alternative natures. Focusing on the timing of water allocations, we explore inherent differences in the demand for water by two key irrigation sectors: annual and perennial producers which in Australia have allowed a significant degree of risk-minimisation during droughts. In the absence of land constraints, producers also had a capacity to respond to positive state outcomes and achieve super-normal profits. In the future, however, the probability of positive state outcomes is uncertain; production systems may need to adapt to minimise losses and/or achieve positive returns under altered water supply conditions that may arise as a consequence of more frequent drought states. As such, producers must assess whether altering current input/output choice sets in response to possible future climate states will enhance their long-run competitive advantage for both expected new normal and extreme water supply outcomes. Further, policy supporting agricultural sector climate change resilience must avoid poorly-designed strategies that increase producer vulnerability in the face of drought. Our analysis explores the reliability of alternative water property right bundles and how reduced allocations across time influence alternative responses by producers. We then extend our analysis to explore how management strategies could adapt to two possible future drier state types: i) where an average reduction in water supply is experienced; and ii) where the frequency of droughts increase. The combination of these findings are subsequently used to discuss the role water reform policy has to deal with current and future climate scenarios. We argue current policy strategies could drive producers to

Estimating carbon and showing impacts of drought using satellite data in regression-tree models

Science.gov (United States)

Boyte, Stephen; Wylie, Bruce K.; Howard, Danny; Dahal, Devendra; Gilmanov, Tagir G.

2018-01-01

Integrating spatially explicit biogeophysical and remotely sensed data into regression-tree models enables the spatial extrapolation of training data over large geographic spaces, allowing a better understanding of broad-scale ecosystem processes. The current study presents annual gross primary production (GPP) and annual ecosystem respiration (RE) for 2000–2013 in several short-statured vegetation types using carbon flux data from towers that are located strategically across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We calculate carbon fluxes (annual net ecosystem production [NEP]) for each year in our study period, which includes 2012 when drought and higher-than-normal temperatures influence vegetation productivity in large parts of the study area. We present and analyse carbon flux dynamics in the CONUS to better understand how drought affects GPP, RE, and NEP. Model accuracy metrics show strong correlation coefficients (r) (r ≥ 94%) between training and estimated data for both GPP and RE. Overall, average annual GPP, RE, and NEP are relatively constant throughout the study period except during 2012 when almost 60% less carbon is sequestered than normal. These results allow us to conclude that this modelling method effectively estimates carbon dynamics through time and allows the exploration of impacts of meteorological anomalies and vegetation types on carbon dynamics.

Comprehensive Characterization of Droughts to Assess the Effectiveness of a Basin-Wide Integrated Water Management in the Yakima River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Demissie, Y.; Mortuza, M. R.; Li, H. Y.

2017-12-01

Better characterization and understanding of droughts and their potential links to climate and hydrologic factors are essential for water resources planning and management in drought-sensitive but agriculturally productive regions like the Yakima River Basin (YKB) in Washington State. The basin is semi-arid and heavily relies on a fully appropriated irrigation water for fruit and crop productions that worth more than 3 billion annually. The basin experienced three major droughts since 2000 with estimated 670 million losses in farm revenue. In response to these and expected worsening drought conditions in the future, there is an ongoing multi-agency effort to adopt a basin-wide integrated water management to ensure water security during severe droughts. In this study, the effectiveness of the proposed water management plan to reduce the frequency and severity of droughts was assessed using a new drought index developed based on the seasonal variations of precipitation, temperature, snow accumulation, streamflow, and reservoir storages. In order to uncover the underlying causes of the various types of droughts observed during the 1961-2016, explanatory data analysis using deep learning was conducted for the local climate and hydrologic data including total water supply available, as well as global climatic phenomenon (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation). The preliminary results showed that besides shortage in annual precipitation, various combinations of climate and hydrologic factors are responsible for the different drought conditions in the basin. Particularly, the winter snowpack, which provides about 2/3 of the surface water in the basin along with the carryover storage from the reservoirs play an important role during both single- and multiple-year drought events. Besides providing the much-needed insights about characteristics of droughts and their contributing factors, the outcome of the study is expected

Measured and modelled leaf and stand-scale productivity across a soil moisture gradient and a severe drought.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, J K; Williams, M; Starr, G; McGee, J; Mitchell, R J

2013-02-01

Environmental controls on carbon dynamics operate at a range of interacting scales from the leaf to landscape. The key questions of this study addressed the influence of water and nitrogen (N) availability on Pinus palustris (Mill.) physiology and primary productivity across leaf and canopy scales, linking the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) model to leaf and stand-scale flux and leaf trait/canopy data. We present previously unreported ecophysiological parameters (e.g. V(cmax) and J(max)) for P. palustris and the first modelled estimates of its annual gross primary productivity (GPP) across xeric and mesic sites and under extreme drought. Annual mesic site P. palustris GPP was ∼23% greater than at the xeric site. However, at the leaf level, xeric trees had higher net photosynthetic rates, and water and light use efficiency. At the canopy scale, GPP was limited by light interception (canopy level), but co-limited by nitrogen and water at the leaf level. Contrary to expectations, the impacts of an intense growing season drought were greater at the mesic site. Modelling indicated a 10% greater decrease in mesic GPP compared with the xeric site. Xeric P. palustris trees exhibited drought-tolerant behaviour that contrasted with mesic trees' drought-avoidance behaviour. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Blended Drought Index: Integrated Drought Hazard Assessment in the Cuvelai-Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Luetkemeier

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Drought is one of the major threats to societies in Sub-Saharan Africa, as the majority of the population highly depends on rain-fed subsistence agriculture and traditional water supply systems. Hot-spot areas of potential drought impact need to be identified to reduce risk and adapt a growing population to a changing environment. This paper presents the Blended Drought Index (BDI, an integrated tool for estimating the impact of drought as a climate-induced hazard in the semi-arid Cuvelai-Basin of Angola and Namibia. It incorporates meteorological and agricultural drought characteristics that impair the population’s ability to ensure food and water security. The BDI uses a copula function to combine common standardized drought indicators that describe precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Satellite remote sensing products were processed to analyze drought frequency, severity and duration. As the primary result, an integrated drought hazard map was built to spatially depict drought hot-spots. Temporally, the BDI correlates well with millet/sorghum yield (r = 0.51 and local water consumption (r = −0.45 and outperforms conventional indicators. In the light of a drought’s multifaceted impact on society, the BDI is a simple and transferable tool to identify areas highly threatened by drought in an integrated manner.

Duration and severity of Medieval drought in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Kleppe, J.A.; Brothers, D.S.; Kent, G.M.; Biondi, F.; Jensen, S.; Driscoll, N.W.

2011-01-01

Droughts in the western U.S. in the past 200 years are small compared to several megadroughts that occurred during Medieval times. We reconstruct duration and magnitude of extreme droughts in the northern Sierra Nevada from hydroclimatic conditions in Fallen Leaf Lake, California. Stands of submerged trees rooted in situ below the lake surface were imaged with sidescan sonar and radiocarbon analysis yields an age estimate of ∼1250 AD. Tree-ring records and submerged paleoshoreline geomorphology suggest a Medieval low-stand of Fallen Leaf Lake lasted more than 220 years. Over eighty more trees were found lying on the lake floor at various elevations above the paleoshoreline. Water-balance calculations suggest annual precipitation was less than 60% normal from late 10th century to early 13th century AD. Hence, the lake’s shoreline dropped 40–60 m below its modern elevation. Stands of pre-Medieval trees in this lake and in Lake Tahoe suggest the region experienced severe drought at least every 650–1150 years during the mid- and late-Holocene. These observations quantify paleo-precipitation and recurrence of prolonged drought in the northern Sierra Nevada.

The effect of severe drought and management after drought on the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The False Thornveld of the Eastern Cape experienced a particularly intense drought during the 1982/1983 growing season. Extensive grass mortality took place during the drought. After the drought, recovery was particularly sensitive to the post-drought management treatment applied. Veld that was grazed immediately ...

How drought severity constrains GPP and its partitioning among carbon pools in a Quercus ilex coppice?

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Rambal, S.; Lempereur, M.; Limousin, J. M.; Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ourcival, J. M.; Rodríguez-Calcerrada, J.

2014-06-01

The partitioning of photosynthates toward biomass compartments has a crucial role in the carbon sink function of forests. Few studies have examined how carbon is allocated toward plant compartments in drought prone forests. We analyzed the fate of GPP in relation to yearly water deficit in an old evergreen Mediterranean Quercus ilex coppice severely affected by water limitations. Gross and net carbon fluxes between the ecosystem and the atmosphere were measured with an eddy-covariance flux tower running continuously since 2001. Discrete measurements of litterfall, stem growth and fAPAR allowed us to derive annual productions of leaves, wood, flowers and acorns and an isometric relationship between stem and belowground biomass has been used to estimate perennial belowground growth. By combining eddy-covariance fluxes with annual productions we managed to close a C budget and derive values of autotrophic and heterotrophic respirations, NPP and carbon use efficiency (CUE, the ratio between NPP and GPP). Average values of yearly NEP, GPP and Reco were 282, 1259 and 977 g C m-2. The corresponding ANPP components were 142.5, 26.4 and 69.6 g C m-2 for leaves, reproductive effort (flowers and fruits) and stems. Gross and net carbon exchange between the ecosystem and the atmosphere were affected by annual water deficit. Partitioning to the different plant compartments was also impacted by drought, with a hierarchy of responses going from the most affected, the stem growth, to the least affected, the leaf production. The average CUE was 0.40, which is well in the range for Mediterranean-type forest ecosystems. CUE tended to decrease more slightly in response to drought than GPP and NPP, probably due to drought-acclimation of autotrophic respiration. Overall, our results provide a baseline for modeling the inter-annual variations of carbon fluxes and allocation in this widespread Mediterranean ecosystem and highlight the value of maintaining continuous experimental

An analysis of the relationship between drought events and mangrove changes along the northern coasts of the Pe rsian Gulf and Oman Sea

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Mafi-Gholami, Davood; Mahmoudi, Beytollah; Zenner, Eric K.

2017-12-01

Relating the changes of mangrove forests to spatially explicit reductions in rainfall amounts and increases in drought occurrences is a prerequisite for improving the effectiveness and success of mangrove forest conservation programs. To this end, we investigated the relationship between drought events (quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index [SPI]) and changes in area and canopy cover of mangrove forests on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea using satellite imagery and long-term annual rainfall data over a period of 30 years (1986-2016). Statistical analyses revealed 1998 as the year marking the most significant change-point in the mean annual rainfall values in the catchments and mangroves, after which average SPI values consistently remained at lower levels. In the period of 1998-2016, decreases in the mean annual rainfall and increases in the severity of droughts differed spatially and were greater in the catchments and mangroves on the coasts of the Oman Sea than the coasts of the Persian Gulf. These spatially explicit results were closely mirrored by the mangrove response, with differential in reductions in mangrove areas and canopy cover that corresponded closely with the spatial distribution of drought intensities in the different parts of the coasts, with correlation coefficients ≥0.89 for the different coastal regions.

Effect of drought on productivity in a Costa Rican tropical dry forest

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Castro, S. M.; Sanchez-Azofeifa, G. A.; Sato, H.

2018-04-01

Climate models predict that precipitation patterns in tropical dry forests (TDFs) will change, with an overall reduction in rainfall amount and intensification of dry intervals, leading to greater susceptibility to drought. In this paper, we explore the effect of drought on phenology and carbon dynamics of a secondary TDF located in the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. Through the use of optical sensors and an eddy covariance flux tower, seasonal phenology and carbon fluxes were monitored over a four-year period (2013-2016). Over this time frame, annual precipitation varied considerably. Total precipitation amounts for the 2013-2016 seasons equaled 1591.8 mm (+14.4 mm SD), 1112.9 mm (+9.9 mm SD), 600.8 mm (+7.6 mm SD), and 1762.2 mm (+13.9 mm SD), respectively. The 2014 and 2015 (ENSO) seasonal precipitation amounts represent a 30% and 63% reduction in precipitation, respectively, and were designated as drought seasons. Phenology was affected by precipitation patterns and availability. The onset of green-up was closely associated with pre-seasonal rains. Drought events lead to seasonal NDVI minimums and changes in phenologic cycle length. Carbon fluxes, assimilation, and photosynthetic light use efficiency were negatively affected by drought. Seasonal minimums in photosynthetic rates and light use efficiency were observed during drought events, and gross primary productivity was reduced by 13% and 42% during drought seasons 2014 and 2015, respectively. However, all four growth seasons were net carbon sinks. Results from this study contribute towards a deeper understanding of the impact of drought on TDF phenology and carbon dynamics.

Groundwater drought in different geological conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Machlica, A; Stojkovova, M

2008-01-01

The identification of hydrological extremes (drought) is very actual at present. The knowledge of the mechanism of hydrological extremes evolution could be useful at many levels of human society, such as scientific, agricultural, local governmental, political and others. The research was performed in the Upper part of the Nitra River catchment (central part of Slovakia) and in the Topla and Ondava River catchments (eastern part of Slovakia). Lumped hydrological model BILAN was used to identify relationships among compounds of the water balance. Presented results are focused on drought in groundwater storage, soil moisture, base flow and discharges. BFI model for baseflow estimation was used and results were compared with those gained by BILAN model. Another item of the research was to compare results of hydrological balance model application on catchments with different geological conditions.

A comparative assessment of projected meteorological and hydrological droughts: Elucidating the role of temperature

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Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Demirel, Mehmet C.

2017-10-01

The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970-1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010-2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a robust distributed hydrologic model with lower computational cost compared to other models. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied using three drought indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Streamflow Index). Results reveal that the intensity and duration of hydrological droughts are expected to increase over the WRB, albeit the annual precipitation is expected to increase. On the other hand, the intensity of meteorological droughts do not indicate an aggravation for most cases. We explore the changes of hydrometeolorogical variables over the basin in order to understand the causes for such differences and to discover the controlling factors of drought. Furthermore, the uncertainty of projections are quantified for model, scenario, and downscaling uncertainty.

Changes in the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts over Ethiopia from 1960 to 2013

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, A. M.; McCabe, Matthew; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Ló pez-Moreno, J. I.; Robaa, S. M.

2016-01-01

Here we present an analysis of drought occurrence and variability in Ethiopia, based on the monthly precipitation data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU-v3.22) over the period from 1960 to 2013. The drought events were characterized by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) applied to precipitation data at a temporal scale of 12 months. At the national scale, the results reveal a statistically significant decrease in the severity of droughts over the 54-year period, a pattern that is mostly attributed to a statistically significant decrease in the frequency of high intensity drought episodes (i.e., extreme and very extreme droughts), compared to moderate droughts. To assess the general patterns of drought evolution, a principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the SPI series. PCA results indicate a high spatial heterogeneity in the SPI variations over the investigated period, with ten different spatially well-defined regions identified. These PCA components accounted for 72.9% of the total variance of drought in the region. These regions also showed considerable differences in the temporal variability of drought, as most of the regions exhibited an increase in wetness conditions in recent decades. In contrast, the regions that receive less than 400 mm of annual precipitation showed a declining  trend, with the largest changes occurring over Afar region. Generally, the highly elevated regions over the central Ethiopian Highlands showed the weakest changes, compared to the lowlands. This study confirms the local character of drought evolution over Ethiopia, providing evidence for policy makers to adopt appropriate local policies to cope with the risks of drought. Over Ethiopia, the detailed spatial assessment of drought evolution is required for a better understanding of the possible impacts of recurrent drought on agriculture, food production, soil degradation, human settlements and migrations, as well as energy production and water resources

Changes in the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts over Ethiopia from 1960 to 2013

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, A. M.

2016-06-27

Here we present an analysis of drought occurrence and variability in Ethiopia, based on the monthly precipitation data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU-v3.22) over the period from 1960 to 2013. The drought events were characterized by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) applied to precipitation data at a temporal scale of 12 months. At the national scale, the results reveal a statistically significant decrease in the severity of droughts over the 54-year period, a pattern that is mostly attributed to a statistically significant decrease in the frequency of high intensity drought episodes (i.e., extreme and very extreme droughts), compared to moderate droughts. To assess the general patterns of drought evolution, a principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the SPI series. PCA results indicate a high spatial heterogeneity in the SPI variations over the investigated period, with ten different spatially well-defined regions identified. These PCA components accounted for 72.9% of the total variance of drought in the region. These regions also showed considerable differences in the temporal variability of drought, as most of the regions exhibited an increase in wetness conditions in recent decades. In contrast, the regions that receive less than 400 mm of annual precipitation showed a declining  trend, with the largest changes occurring over Afar region. Generally, the highly elevated regions over the central Ethiopian Highlands showed the weakest changes, compared to the lowlands. This study confirms the local character of drought evolution over Ethiopia, providing evidence for policy makers to adopt appropriate local policies to cope with the risks of drought. Over Ethiopia, the detailed spatial assessment of drought evolution is required for a better understanding of the possible impacts of recurrent drought on agriculture, food production, soil degradation, human settlements and migrations, as well as energy production and water resources

Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shoaib Ahmed

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

Drought sensitivity changes over the last century at the North American savanna-forest boundary

Science.gov (United States)

Heilman, K.; McLachlan, J. S.

2017-12-01

Future environmental changes can affect the sensitivity of tree growth to climate. Theses changes are of particular concern at biome boundaries where tree distribution could shift as a result of changes in both drought and drought sensitivity. One such region is the North American savanna-forest boundary, where increased CO2 and droughts could alter savanna and forest ecosystem distributions in two contrasting ways: 1). More severe droughts may increase drought sensitivity, favoring open savanna ecosystems or, 2). Increases in water use efficiency resulting from higher atmospheric CO2 may decrease drought sensitivity, promoting forest expansion. This study sought to understand whether the past 100 years of climate and CO2 changes have impacted regional tree growth-climate sensitivity. To test for these climate sensitivity changes, we measured the sensitivity of Quercus spp. radial growth to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Tree growth sensitivity to climate can vary according to many factors, including: stand structure, available moisture, and tree age. To control for these factors, we sampled tree growth-climate responses at sites in both open and closed forests, and at both low and high annual precipitation. Within each site, we compared growth responses to climate between trees established under high CO2 conditions after 1950 (high CO2 young), and tree established before 1950 under low CO2 levels (low CO2 young). At most sites, low CO2 young have a higher drought sensitivity than higher CO2 young. These changes in the sensitivity to drought are consistent with CO2 enhancement of water use efficiency. Furthermore, these differences in drought sensitivity are higher at sites with high temperature and low precipitation, suggesting that the alleviation of drought is more likely in hot and dry regions. Thus, if CO2 enhancement is indeed occurring in these systems, lower growth sensitivity to drought in hot and dry regions could favor increased forest growth. If

Comparative proteome analysis of drought-sensitive and drought-tolerant rapeseed roots and their hybrid F1 line under drought stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammadi, Payam Pour; Moieni, Ahmad; Komatsu, Setsuko

2012-11-01

Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.), which is the third leading source of vegetable oil, is sensitive to drought stress during the early vegetative growth stage. To investigate the initial response of rapeseed to drought stress, changes in the protein expression profiles of drought-sensitive (RGS-003) and drought-tolerant lines (SLM-003), and their F1 hybrid, were analyzed using a proteomics approach. Seven-day-old rapeseed seedlings were treated with drought stress by restricting water for 7 days, and proteins were extracted from roots and separated by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. In the sensitive rapeseed line, 35 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins related to metabolism, energy, disease/defense, and transport were decreased. In the tolerant line, 32 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins involved in metabolism, disease/defense, and transport were increased, while energy-related proteins were decreased. Six protein spots in F1 hybrid were common among expressed proteins in the drought-sensitive and -tolerant lines. Notably, tubulin beta-2 and heat shock protein 70 were decreased in the drought-sensitive line and hybrid F1 plants, while jasmonate-inducible protein and 20S proteasome subunit PAF1 were increased in the F1 hybrids and drought-tolerant line. These results indicate that (1) V-type H(+) ATPase, plasma-membrane associated cation-binding protein, HSP 90, and elongation factor EF-2 have a role in the drought tolerance of rapeseed; (2) The decreased levels of heat shock protein 70 and tubulin beta-2 in the drought-sensitive and hybrid F1 lines might explain the reduced growth of these lines in drought conditions.

Vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems and forest dependent communities to droughts.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogt, D J; Vogt, K A; Gmur, S J; Scullion, J J; Suntana, A S; Daryanto, S; Sigurðardóttir, R

2016-01-01

Energy captured by and flowing through a forest ecosystem can be indexed by its total Net Primary Productivity (NPP). This forest NPP can also be a reflection of its sensitivity to, and its ability to adapt to, any climate change while also being harvested by humans. However detecting and identifying the vulnerability of forest and human ecosystems to climate change requires information on whether these coupled social and ecological systems are able to maintain functionality while responding to environmental variability. To better understand what parameters might be representative of environmental variability, we compiled a metadata analysis of 96 tropical forest sites. We found that three soil textural classes (i.e., sand, sandy loam and clay) had significant but different relationships between NPP and precipitation levels. Therefore, assessing the vulnerability of forests and forest dependent communities to drought was carried out using data from those sites that had one of those three soil textural classes. For example, forests growing on soil textures of sand and clay had NPP levels decreasing as precipitation levels increased, in contrast to those forest sites that had sandy loam soils where NPP levels increased. Also, forests growing on sandy loam soil textures appeared better adapted to grow at lower precipitation levels compared to the sand and clay textured soils. In fact in our tropical database the lowest precipitation level found for the sandy loam soils was 821 mm yr(-1) compared to sand at 1739 mm yr(-1) and clay at 1771 mm yr(-1). Soil texture also determined the level of NPP reached by a forest, i.e., forest growing on sandy loam and clay reached low-medium NPP levels while higher NPP levels (i.e., medium, high) were found on sand-textured soils. Intermediate precipitation levels (>1800-3000 mm yr(-1)) were needed to grow forests at the medium and high NPP levels. Low thresholds of NPP were identified at both low (∼750 mm) and high precipitation

Magnitude of flood flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities for streams in Massachusetts

Science.gov (United States)

Zarriello, Phillip J.

2017-05-11

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, determined the magnitude of flood flows at selected annual exceedance prob­abilities (AEPs) at streamgages in Massachusetts and from these data developed equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged locations in the State. Flood magnitudes were deter­mined for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEPs at 220 streamgages, 125 of which are in Massachusetts and 95 are in the adjacent States of Connecticut, New Hamp­shire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. AEP flood flows were computed for streamgages using the expected moments algorithm weighted with a recently computed regional skew­ness coefficient for New England.Regional regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitude of floods for selected AEP flows at ungaged sites from 199 selected streamgages and for 60 potential explanatory basin characteristics. AEP flows for 21 of the 125 streamgages in Massachusetts were not used in the final regional regression analysis, primarily because of regulation or redundancy. The final regression equations used general­ized least squares methods to account for streamgage record length and correlation. Drainage area, mean basin elevation, and basin storage explained 86 to 93 percent of the variance in flood magnitude from the 50- to 0.2-percent AEPs, respec­tively. The estimates of AEP flows at streamgages can be improved by using a weighted estimate that is based on the magnitude of the flood and associated uncertainty from the at-site analysis and the regional regression equations. Weighting procedures for estimating AEP flows at an ungaged site on a gaged stream also are provided that improve estimates of flood flows at the ungaged site when hydrologic characteristics do not abruptly change.Urbanization expressed as the percentage of imperviousness provided some explanatory power in the regional regression; however, it was not statistically

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow, resource optimization, and potential effects of prolonged drought for the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area, central Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Ryter, Derek W.; Kunkel, Christopher D.; Peterson, Steven M.; Traylor, Jonathan P.

2015-08-13

A hydrogeological study including two numerical groundwater-flow models was completed for the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area of central Oklahoma. One numerical groundwater-flow model, the Citizen Potawatomi Nation model, encompassed the jurisdictional area and was based on the results of a regional-scale hydrogeological study and numerical groundwater flow model of the Central Oklahoma aquifer, which had a geographic extent that included the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area. The Citizen Potawatomi Nation numerical groundwater-flow model included alluvial aquifers not in the original model and improved calibration using automated parameter-estimation techniques. The Citizen Potawatomi Nation numerical groundwater-flow model was used to analyze the groundwater-flow system and the effects of drought on the volume of groundwater in storage and streamflow in the North Canadian River. A more detailed, local-scale inset model was constructed from the Citizen Potawatomi Nation model to estimate available groundwater resources for two Citizen Potawatomi Nation economic development zones near the North Canadian River, the geothermal supply area and the Iron Horse Industrial Park.

Combined statistical and spatially distributed hydrological model for evaluating future drought indices in Virginia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyunwoo Kang

2017-08-01

New hydrological insights for the region: The results of the ensemble mean of SSI indicated that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences projected in the New (>1.3 times and Rappahannock (>1.13 times river basins due to increases in evapotranspiration and surface and groundwater flow. However, MSDI and MPDSI exhibited a decrease in projected future drought, despite increases in precipitation, which suggests that it is essential to use hybrid-modeling approaches and to interpret application-specific drought indices that consider both precipitation and temperature changes.

Linking meteorological drivers of spring-summer drought regimes to agricultural drought risk in China

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Dai, L.; Wright, J. S.; Yu, C.; Huang, W. Y.

2017-12-01

As a drought prone country, China has experienced frequent severe droughts in recent decades. Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in China under climate change. An understanding of the physical processes that contribute to extreme droughts is essential for seasonal forecasting, but the dominant physical mechanisms responsible for droughts in most parts of China are still unclear. Moreover, despite numerous studies on droughts in China, there are few clear connections between the meteorological and climatological drivers of extreme droughts and the associated agricultural consequences. This knowledge gap limits the capacity for decision-making support in drought management. The objectives of this study are (1) to identify robust spring-summer drought regimes over China, (2) to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with each regime, and (3) to better clarify connections between meteorological drought regimes and agricultural drought risk. First, we identify six drought regimes over China by applying an area-weighted k-means clustering technique to spatial patterns of spring-summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) obtained from the ten-member ERA-20CM ensemble for 1900-2010. Second, we project these drought regimes onto agricultural drought risk maps for the three major cereal crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in China. Taking into account historical harvest areas for these crops, we then evaluate the potential impact of each drought regime on agricultural production. Third, the physical mechanisms and meteorological context behind each drought regimes are investigated based on monthly outputs from ERA20CM. We analyze the preceding and concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with each regime, and propose mechanistic explanations for drought development. This work provides a new perspective on diagnosing the physical mechanisms behind seasonal droughts, and lays a foundation for improving seasonal drought prediction and

GRACE-Assimilated Drought Indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor

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Rui, Hualan; Vollmer, Bruce; Teng, Bill; Loeser, Carlee; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Rodell, Matt

2018-01-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission detects changes in Earth's gravity field by precisely monitoring the changes in distance between two satellites orbiting the Earth in tandem. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center generate GRACE-assimilated groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week, for drought monitor-related studies and applications. The GRACE-assimilated Drought Indicator Version 2.0 data product (GRACE-DA-DM V2.0) is archived at, and distributed by, the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center). More information about the data and data access is available on the data product landing page at https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets /GRACEDADM_CLSM0125US_7D_2.0/summary. The GRACE-DA-DM V2.0 data product contains three drought indicators: Groundwater Percentile, Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile, and Surface Soil Moisture Percentile. The drought indicators are of wet or dry conditions, expressed as a percentile, indicating the probability of occurrence within the period of record from 1948 to 2012. These GRACE-assimilated drought indicators, with improved spatial and temporal resolutions, should provide a more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions. This presentation describes the basic characteristics of the data and data services at NASA GES DISC and collaborative organizations, and uses a few examples to demonstrate the simple ways to explore the GRACE-assimilated drought indicator data.

Improved tolerance to post-anthesis drought stress by pre-drought priming at vegetative stages in drought-tolerant and -sensitive wheat cultivars.

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Abid, Muhammad; Tian, Zhongwei; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Liu, Yang; Cui, Yakun; Zahoor, Rizwan; Jiang, Dong; Dai, Tingbo

2016-09-01

Wheat crop endures a considerable penalty of yield reduction to escape the drought events during post-anthesis period. Drought priming under a pre-drought stress can enhance the crop potential to tolerate the subsequent drought stress by triggering a faster and stronger defense mechanism. Towards these understandings, a set of controlled moderate drought stress at 55-60% field capacity (FC) was developed to prime the plants of two wheat cultivars namely Luhan-7 (drought tolerant) and Yangmai-16 (drought sensitive) during tillering (Feekes 2 stage) and jointing (Feekes 6 stage), respectively. The comparative response of primed and non-primed plants, cultivars and priming stages was evaluated by applying a subsequent severe drought stress at 7 days after anthesis. The results showed that primed plants of both cultivars showed higher potential to tolerate the post-anthesis drought stress through improved leaf water potential, more chlorophyll, and ribulose-1, 5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase contents, enhanced photosynthesis, better photoprotection and efficient enzymatic antioxidant system leading to less yield reductions. The primed plants of Luhan-7 showed higher capability to adapt the drought stress events than Yangmai-16. The positive effects of drought priming to sustain higher grain yield were pronounced in plants primed at tillering than those primed at jointing. In consequence, upregulated functioning of photosynthetic apparatus and efficient enzymatic antioxidant activities in primed plants indicated their superior potential to alleviate a subsequently occurring drought stress, which contributed to lower yield reductions than non-primed plants. However, genotypic and priming stages differences in response to drought stress also contributed to affect the capability of primed plants to tolerate the post-anthesis drought stress conditions in wheat. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Quercus macrocarpa annual, early- and latewood widths as hydroclimatic proxies, southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanstone, Jessica R; Sauchyn, David J

2010-01-01

Fluctuations in size of annual ring-widths of Quercus species suggest that environmental factors influence the size and density of vessels within the ring, either by acting as a limiting factor for growth or through fine tuning of the wood structure to environmental factors. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential of Q. macrocarpa to provide multiple dendroclimatic proxies for the Canadian Prairies, by investigating growth responses of annual, early- and latewood widths to regional climate variability. Results indicate that ring width chronologies, from southeastern Saskatchewan capture regional signals related to moisture and drought conditions. Correlations suggest that late-wood widths are more representative of annual ring-widths, than are early-wood widths, and are the best proxy of seasonal fluctuations in climate. Thus regression models that include latewood widths were able to account for more variance in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) than when annual ring-widths are used as the only proxy. This study demonstrates that Q. macrocarpa can provide multiple dendroclimatic proxies for investigating large scale climatic fluctuations at annual and sub-annual time scales. It is novel in terms of sub-annual analysis of tree-rings in a region that previously lacked dendrochronological research.

Temporal-spatial characteristics of severe drought events in Southwest China and their relationships to teleconnection indices

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Wang, P., III; Wu, C.; Hao, Y.; Xu, K.

2017-12-01

In the process of global warming, the frequency and intensity of a series of climate events (such as, precipitation, flood disaster, climate arid) are also being changed. Even in the today of advanced science and technology, the occurrence and severity of drought in China is still devastating impact on social and economic development. We studied the spatial and temporal variability of drought in southwestern China China and its relationships to teleconnection indices. We used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to investigate the variation in drought in southwestern China between 1961 and 2012 using the Mann-Kendall (MK), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) methods. Additionally, We analyzed the relationships between the time variability of significant patterns and teleconnection indices. The PDSI shows that there is a trend of turning dry in west Tibet; while it is remarkably drying in junction of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing provinces, and the drought in Spring is more severe than in autumn, with a changing oscillation period of 2-7a. It's found the drought strength reducing before rising without a obvious turning point. Also, the drought frequency staggered in spatial distribution, and a larger inter-annual difference. AO and SS are the most important factors among all the drought influence factors, the others differ from the importance.

Drought over Seoul and Its Association with Solar Cycles

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Jong-Hyeok Park

2013-12-01

Full Text Available We have investigated drought periodicities occurred in Seoul to find out any indication of relationship between drought in Korea and solar activities. It is motivated, in view of solar-terrestrial connection, to search for an example of extreme weather condition controlled by solar activity. The periodicity of drought in Seoul has been re-examined using the wavelet transform technique as the consensus is not achieved yet. The reason we have chosen Seoul is because daily precipitation was recorded for longer than 200 years, which meets our requirement that analyses of drought frequency demand long-term historical data to ensure reliable estimates. We have examined three types of time series of the Effective Drought Index (EDI. We have directly analyzed EDI time series in the first place. And we have constructed and analyzed time series of histogram in which the number of days whose EDI is less than -1.5 for a given month of the year is given as a function of time, and one in which the number of occasions where EDI values of three consecutive days are all less than -1.5 is given as a function of time. All the time series data sets we analyzed are periodic. Apart from the annual cycle due to seasonal variations, periodicities shorter than the 11 year sunspot cycle, ~ 3, ~ 4, ~ 6 years, have been confirmed. Periodicities to which theses short periodicities (shorter than Hale period may be corresponding are not yet known. Longer periodicities possibly related to Gleissberg cycles, ~ 55, ~ 120 years, can be also seen. However, periodicity comparable to the 11 year solar cycle seems absent in both EDI and the constructed data sets.

CreativeDrought: An interdisciplinary approach to building resilience to drought

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Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Rohse, Melanie; Day, Rosie; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Makaya, Eugine

2017-04-01

Drought events cause severe water and food insecurities in many developing countries where resilience to natural hazards and change is low due to a number of reasons (including poverty, social and political inequality, and limited access to information). Furthermore, with climate change and increasing pressures from population and societal change, populations are expected to experience future droughts outside of their historic range. Integrated water resources management is an established tool combining natural science, engineering and management to help address drought and associated impacts. However, it often lacks a strong social and cultural aspect, leading to poor implementation on the ground. For a more holistic approach to building resilience to future drought, a stronger interdisciplinary approach is required which can incorporate the local cultural context and perspectives into drought and water management, and communicate information effectively to communities. In this pilot project 'CreativeDrought', we use a novel interdisciplinary approach aimed at building resilience to future drought in rural Africa by combining hydrological modelling with rich local information and engaging communicative approaches from social sciences. The work is conducted through a series of steps in which we i) engage with local rural communities to collect narratives on drought experiences; ii) generate hydrological modelling scenarios based on IPCC projections, existing data and the collected narratives; iii) feed these back to the local community to gather their responses to these scenarios; iv) iteratively adapt them to obtain hypothetical future drought scenarios; v) engage the community with the scenarios to formulate new future drought narratives; and vi) use this new data to enhance local water resource management. Here we present some of the indigenous knowledge gathered through narratives and the hydrological modelling scenarios for a rural community in Southern Africa

Assessment of groundwater response to droughts in a complex runoff-dominated watershed by using an integrated hydrologic model

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Woolfenden, L. R.; Hevesi, J. A.; Nishikawa, T.

2014-12-01

Groundwater is an important component of the water supply, especially during droughts, within the Santa Rosa Plain watershed (SRPW), California, USA. The SRPW is 680 km2 and includes a network of natural and engineered stream channels. Streamflow is strongly seasonal, with high winter flows, predominantly intermittent summer flows, and comparatively rapid response time to larger storms. Groundwater flow is influenced primarily by complex geology, spatial and temporal variation in recharge, and pumping for urban, agricultural, and rural demands. Results from an integrated hydrologic model (GSFLOW) for the SRPW were analyzed to assess the effect of droughts on groundwater resources during water years 1976-2010. Model results indicate that, in general, below-average precipitation during historical drought periods reduced groundwater recharge (focused within stream channels and diffuse outside of channels on alluvial plains), groundwater evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater discharge to streams (baseflow). In addition, recharge during wet periods was not sufficient to replenish groundwater-storage losses caused by drought and groundwater pumping, resulting in an overall 150 gigaliter loss in groundwater storage for water years 1976-2010. During drought periods, lower groundwater levels from reduced recharge broadly increased the number and length of losing-stream reaches, and seepage losses in streams became a higher percentage of recharge relative to the diffuse recharge outside of stream channels (for example, seepage losses in streams were 36% of recharge in 2006 and 57% at the end of the 2007-09 drought). Reductions in groundwater storage during drought periods resulted in decreased groundwater ET (loss of riparian habitat) and baseflow, especially during the warmer and dryer months (May through September) when groundwater is the dominant component of streamflow.

Characterizing drought in terms of changes in the precipitation-runoff relationship: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

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Zhang, Yuan; Feng, Xiaoming; Wang, Xiaofeng; Fu, Bojie

2018-03-01

The frequency and intensity of drought are increasing dramatically with global warming. However, few studies have characterized drought in terms of its impacts on ecosystem services, the mechanisms through which ecosystems support life. As a result, little is known about the implications of increased drought for resource management. This case study characterizes drought by linking climate anomalies with changes in the precipitation-runoff relationship (PRR) on the Loess Plateau of China, a water-limited region where ongoing revegetation makes drought a major concern. We analyzed drought events with drought durations ≥ 5 years and mean annual precipitation anomaly (PA) values ≤ -5 % during drought periods. The results show that continuous precipitation shifts are able to change the water balance of watersheds in water-limited areas, and multi-year drought events cause the PRR to change with a significantly decreasing trend (p runoff ratio decreased from 10 to 6.8 % during 1991-1999. The joint probability and return period gradually increase with increasing of drought duration and severity. The ecosystem service of water yield is easily affected by drought events with durations equal to or greater than 6 years and drought severity values equal to or greater than 0.55 (precipitation ≤ 212 mm). At the same time, multi-year drought events also lead to significant changes in the leaf area index (LAI). Such studies are essential for ecosystem management in water-limited areas.

Post-fire soil functionality and microbial community structure in a Mediterranean shrubland subjected to experimental drought.

Science.gov (United States)

Hinojosa, M Belén; Parra, Antonio; Laudicina, Vito Armando; Moreno, José M

2016-12-15

Fire may cause significant alterations in soil properties. Post-fire soil dynamics can vary depending, among other factors, on rainfall patterns. However, little is known regarding variations in response to post-fire drought. This is relevant in arid and semiarid areas with poor soils, like much of the western Mediterranean. Furthermore, climate change projections in such areas anticipate reduced precipitation and longer annual drought periods, together with an increase in fire severity and frequency. This research evaluates the effects of experimental drought after fire on soil dynamics of a Cistus-Erica shrubland (Central Spain). A replicated (n=4) field experiment was conducted in which the total rainfall and its patterns were manipulated by means of a rain-out shelters and irrigation system. The treatments were: environmental control (natural rainfall), historical control (average rainfall, 2months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction of historical control, 5months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7months drought). After one growing season under these rainfall treatments, the plots were burned. One set of unburned plots under natural rainfall served as an additional control. Soils were collected seasonally. Fire increased soil P and N availability. Post-fire drought treatments reduced available soil P but increased N concentration (mainly nitrate). Fire reduced available K irrespective of drought treatments. Fire reduced enzyme activities and carbon mineralization rate, a reduction that was higher in post-fire drought-treated soils. Fire decreased soil microbial biomass and the proportion of fungi, while that of actinomycetes increased. Post-fire drought decreased soil total microbial biomass and fungi, with bacteria becoming more abundant. Our results support that increasing drought after fire could compromise the resilience of Mediterranean ecosystems to fire. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drought impact on water use efficiency and intra-annual density fluctuations in Erica arborea on Elba (Italy).

Science.gov (United States)

Battipaglia, Giovanna; DE Micco, Veronica; Brand, Willi A; Saurer, Matthias; Aronne, Giovanna; Linke, Petra; Cherubini, Paolo

2014-02-01

Erica arborea (L) is a widespread Mediterranean species, able to cope with water stress and colonize semiarid environments. The eco-physiological plasticity of this species was evaluated by studying plants growing at two sites with different soil moistures on the island of Elba (Italy), through dendrochronological, wood-anatomical analyses and stable isotopes measurements. Intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs) were abundant in tree rings, and were identified as the key parameter to understand site-specific plant responses to water stress. Our findings showed that the formation of IADFs is mainly related to the high temperature, precipitation patterns and probably to soil water availability, which differs at the selected study sites. The recorded increase in the (13) C-derived intrinsic water use efficiency at the IADFs level was linked to reduced water loss rather than to increasing C assimilation. The variation in vessel size and the different absolute values of δ(18) O among trees growing at the two study sites underlined possible differences in stomatal control of water loss and possible differences in sources of water uptake. This approach not only helped monitor seasonal environmental differences through tree-ring width, but also added valuable information on E. arborea responses to drought and their ecological implications for Mediterranean vegetation dynamics. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

Science.gov (United States)

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-08-16

Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow.Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

The Use Of Standardized Indicators (SPI And SPEI In Predicting Droughts Over The Republic Of Moldova Territory

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Nedealcov M.

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The drought events frequent manifestation over the Republic of Moldova territory, in the context of climate change requires a scientific monitoring adjusted to international researchers. In recent years, internationally, the estimation of this phenomenon occurs through standardized indexes. The most used of these, being the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. Since there is no a unified definition of drought, the World Meteorological Organization proposes to calculate the indexes, through developed calculation software. Thus, based on multi-annual data (1980-2014 a regional spatio-temporal estimation concerning drought in the Republic of Moldova was performed, thereby realizing the regional investigations framing in the international ones.

Analysis of 20th century rainfall and streamflow to characterize drought and water resources in Puerto Rico

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Larsen, Matthew C.

2000-01-01

During the period from 1990 to 1997, annual rainfall accumulation averaged 87% of normal at the 12 stations with the longest period of record in Puerto Rico, a Caribbean island with a 1999 population of 3.8 million. Streamflow in rivers supplying the La Plata and Loíza reservoirs, the principal water supply of the San Juan metropolitan area, was at or below the 10th flow percentile for 27% to 50% of the time between December 1993 and May 1996. Diminished reservoir levels in 1994 and 1995 affected more than 1 million people in the San Juan metropolitan area. Water rationing was implemented during this period and significant agricultural losses, valued at $165 million, were recorded in 1994. The public endured a year of mandatory water rationing in which sections of the city had their water-distribution networks shut off for 24 to 36 hours on alternate days. During the winter and spring of 1997–1998, water was rationed to more than 200,000 people in northwestern Puerto Rico because water level in the Guajataca reservoir was well below normal for two years because of rainfall deficits. The drought period of 1993–1996 was comparable in magnitude to a drought in 1966–1968, but water rationing was more severe during the 1993–1996 period, indicating that water management issues such as demand, storage capacity, water production and losses, and per capita consumption are increasingly important as population and development in Puerto Rico expand. [Key words: drought, streamflow, water resources, Caribbean, Puerto Rico, rainfall, water supply.

The current California drought through EDDI's eyes: early warning and monitoring of agricultural and hydrologic drought with the new Evaporative Demand Drought Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Wood, A. W.; Morton, C.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

We have developed a physically based, multi-scalar drought index—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)—to improve treatment of evaporative dynamics in drought monitoring. Existing popular drought indices—such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index that informs much of the US Drought Monitor (USDM)—have primarily relyied on precipitation and temperature (T) to represent hydroclimatic anomalies, leaving evaporative demand (E0) most often derived from poorly performing T-based parameterizations then used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) from LSMs. Instead, EDDI leverages the inter-relations of E0 and ET, measuring E0's physical response to surface drying anomalies due to two distinct land surface/atmosphere interactions: (i) in sustained drought, limited moisture availability forces E0 and ET into a complementary relation, whereby ET declines as E0 increases; and (ii) in "flash" droughts, E0 increases due to increasing advection or radiation. E0's rise in response to both drought types suggests EDDI's robustness as a monitor and leading indicator of drought. To drive EDDI, we use for E0 daily reference ET from the ASCE Standardized Reference ET equation forced by North American Land Data Assimilation System drivers. EDDI is derived by aggregating E0 anomalies from its long-term mean across a period of interest and normalizing them to a Z-score. Positive EDDI indicates drier than normal conditions (and so drought). We use the current historic California drought as a test-case in which to examine EDDI's performance in monitoring agricultural and hydrologic drought. We observe drought development and decompose the behavior of drought's evaporative drivers during in-drought intensification periods and wetting events. EDDI's performance as a drought leading indicator with respect to the USDM is tested in important agricultural regions. Comparing streamflow from several USGS gauges in the Sierra Nevada to EDDI, we find that EDDI tracks most major

Interannual variations in needle and sapwood traits of Pinus edulis branches under an experimental drought.

Science.gov (United States)

Guérin, Marceau; Martin-Benito, Dario; von Arx, Georg; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Griffin, Kevin L; Hamdan, Rayann; McDowell, Nate G; Muscarella, Robert; Pockman, William; Gentine, Pierre

2018-02-01

In the southwestern USA, recent large-scale die-offs of conifers raise the question of their resilience and mortality under droughts. To date, little is known about the interannual structural response to droughts. We hypothesized that piñon pines ( Pinus edulis ) respond to drought by reducing the drop of leaf water potential in branches from year to year through needle morphological adjustments. We tested our hypothesis using a 7-year experiment in central New Mexico with three watering treatments (irrigated, normal, and rain exclusion). We analyzed how variation in "evaporative structure" (needle length, stomatal diameter, stomatal density, stomatal conductance) responded to watering treatment and interannual climate variability. We further analyzed annual functional adjustments by comparing yearly addition of needle area (LA) with yearly addition of sapwood area (SA) and distance to tip ( d ), defining the yearly ratios SA:LA and SA:LA/ d . Needle length ( l ) increased with increasing winter and monsoon water supply, and showed more interannual variability when the soil was drier. Stomatal density increased with dryness, while stomatal diameter was reduced. As a result, anatomical maximal stomatal conductance was relatively invariant across treatments. SA:LA and SA:LA/ d showed significant differences across treatments and contrary to our expectation were lower with reduced water input. Within average precipitation ranges, the response of these ratios to soil moisture was similar across treatments. However, when extreme soil drought was combined with high VPD, needle length, SA:LA and SA:LA/ d became highly nonlinear, emphasizing the existence of a response threshold of combined high VPD and dry soil conditions. In new branch tissues, the response of annual functional ratios to water stress was immediate (same year) and does not attempt to reduce the drop of water potential. We suggest that unfavorable evaporative structural response to drought is compensated

Modeling drought impact occurrence based on climatological drought indices for four European countries

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Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

2014-05-01

The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information (www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts

Dendrochronological assessment of drought severity indices for Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia, U.S.A.

Science.gov (United States)

McKee, A.; Aulenbach, B. T.

2015-12-01

Quantifying the relation between drought severity and tree growth is important to predict future growth rates as climate change effects the frequency and severity of future droughts. Two commonly used metrics of drought severity are the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). These indices are often calculated from proximal weather station data and therefore may not be very accurate at the local watershed scale. The accuracy of these commonly used measures of drought severity was compared to a recently developed, locally calibrated model of water limitation based on the difference between potential and actual evapotranspiration (ETDIFF). Relative accuracies of the drought indices were assessed on the strength of correlations with a 20-year tree-ring index chronology (1986-2006) developed from 22 loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) trees in water-limited landscape positions at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW), a 41-hectare forested watershed located in north-central Georgia. We used SPI and PDSI index values from the weather station located at the Atlanta Airport, approximately 36 kilometers from PMRW. ETDIFF was calculated based on precipitation, temperature, runoff, and solar radiation data collected at PMRW. Annual index values for all three drought indices were calculated as the mean value over the growing season (May to September). All three indices had significant Pearson correlations with the tree-ring index (p = 0.044, 0.007, 0.002 for SPI, PDSI, and ETDIFF, respectively). The ETDIFF method had the strongest correlation (R2 = 0.40) compared to SPI and PDSI results (R2 = 0.19 and 0.32, respectively). Results suggest SPI and PDSI provided a general measure of drought conditions, however, the locally calibrated model of water limitation appears to measure drought severity more accurately. Future studies on the ecological effects of drought may benefit from adopting ETDIFF as a measure of drought severity.

An evaluation of Dynamic TOPMODEL for low flow simulation

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Coxon, G.; Freer, J. E.; Quinn, N.; Woods, R. A.; Wagener, T.; Howden, N. J. K.

2015-12-01

Hydrological models are essential tools for drought risk management, often providing input to water resource system models, aiding our understanding of low flow processes within catchments and providing low flow predictions. However, simulating low flows and droughts is challenging as hydrological systems often demonstrate threshold effects in connectivity, non-linear groundwater contributions and a greater influence of water resource system elements during low flow periods. These dynamic processes are typically not well represented in commonly used hydrological models due to data and model limitations. Furthermore, calibrated or behavioural models may not be effectively evaluated during more extreme drought periods. A better understanding of the processes that occur during low flows and how these are represented within models is thus required if we want to be able to provide robust and reliable predictions of future drought events. In this study, we assess the performance of dynamic TOPMODEL for low flow simulation. Dynamic TOPMODEL was applied to a number of UK catchments in the Thames region using time series of observed rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data that captured multiple historic droughts over a period of several years. The model performance was assessed against the observed discharge time series using a limits of acceptability framework, which included uncertainty in the discharge time series. We evaluate the models against multiple signatures of catchment low-flow behaviour and investigate differences in model performance between catchments, model diagnostics and for different low flow periods. We also considered the impact of surface water and groundwater abstractions and discharges on the observed discharge time series and how this affected the model evaluation. From analysing the model performance, we suggest future improvements to Dynamic TOPMODEL to improve the representation of low flow processes within the model structure.

Drought variation of western Chinese Loess Plateau since 1568 and its linkages with droughts in western North America

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Keyan; Guo, Zhengtang; Chen, Deliang; Linderholm, Hans W.; Li, Jinbao; Zhou, Feifei; Guo, Guoyang; Dong, Zhipeng; Li, Yingjun

2017-12-01

Understanding long-term drought variations in the past can help to evaluate ongoing and future hydroclimate change in the arid western Chinese Loess Plateau (WCLP), a region with increasing demand for water resources due to the increasing population and socioeconomic activities. Here we present a new tree-ring chronology inform the WCLP, which shows coherent interannual variations with tree-ring chronologies from 7 neighboring areas across the WCLP, suggesting a common regional climate control over tree growth. However, considerable differences are observed among their interdecadal variations, which are likely due to growth disturbances at interdecadal timescales. To deal with this issue, we use a frequency based method to develop a composite tree-ring chronology from 401 tree-ring series from these 8 sites, which shows more pronounced interdecadal variability than a chronology developed using traditional methods. The composite tree-ring chronology is used to reconstruct the annual precipitation from previous August to current July from 1568 to 2012, extending about 50 years longer than the previous longest tree-ring reconstruction from the region. The driest epoch of our reconstruction is found in the 1920s-1930s, which matches well with droughts recorded in historical documents. Over the past four centuries, a strong resemblance between drought variability in the WCLP and western North America (WNA) is evident on multidecadal timescales, but this relationship breaks down on timescales shorter than about 50 years.

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2008-01-01

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response

The 1988 Drought, Barges, and Diversion.

Science.gov (United States)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1989-09-01

The drought of 1988 rated as one of the nation's worst in the past 100 years, resulting in a myriad of impacts and responses. A notable, largely unexpected impact involved stoppages of barge traffic on the lower Mississippi River during June and July, a result of shallow areas produced by record low flows and shoaling. The barge industry hauls 45% of all bulk commodities (grains, coal, petroleum) shipped in the central United States. The low flows were a result of the unusually large areas extent of drought conditions across most of the Mississippi Basin, which comprises 40% of the continental United States. Most 1987 months had been relatively warm and dry, minimizing moisture in the soils and shallow ground water. Then deficient snowmelt (due to low winter snow-falls) and record low spring 1988 precipitation combined to produce the record low flows along much of the Mississippi River.Most responses to the drought came in a crisis mode and included concentrated dredging to open channels, government enforced reductions in barge loads and in numbers of barges per tow, tripled barge shipping rates, and shifts in transportation modes. The barge industry suffered a 20% income loss. The total losses to the barge industry coupled with higher costs for shipping were $1 billion. The Illinois Central Railroad, which parallels the major blocked waterways, used a climate prediction to anticipate the low flows 3 months in advance. They leased additional cars to help handle the increased shipments transferred from barges and made a sizable profit. A response proposed by Illinois and shippers-a temporary increase in the water diverted from lake Michigan to raise the levels on the lower Mississippi River-was met with strong objections by other lake states and Canada. The federal government declined the proposal, but the sizable controversy it engendered reflects the growing sensitivity to water resources issues in the Great Lakes Basin and is also illustrative of problems to be

Global patterns of drought recovery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin

2017-08-09

Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of gross primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.

Comparative Analysis of Drought Indices for Drought Zone Scheme of Northern Khorasan Province of Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ehsan EYSHI REZAEI

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Drought is one of the natural disasters which deeply influenced agricultural production. Drought monitoring programs could help to forecast and mitigate the impacts of drought. In this study occurrence, severity, and duration of drought were evaluated by monthly rainfall data (1986-2005 that were recorded at all meteorological stations in north Khorasan province of Iran. Drought indices include Standard Rainfall Index (SPI, Decades Index (DI and Percent of Normal (PNI calculated and compared to determine drought severity, duration and drought occurrence for all stations. In addition, drought maps were prepared by Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method, for each study zone. Based on these indices, the most extensive drought occurred in 1989, 1990, 1995, 1996, 2000, and 2001 years. The longest duration of drought based on SPI happened in 1994 and 1997 years. Furthermore, the extreme drought occurred in 1990 and 2001 in all stations. In conclusion, Central part of this province was more exposed to extreme drought during study period than other parts of this region.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Droughts in the Xijiang River Basin, China and Its Responses to Global Climatic Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jizhong Qiu

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The Xijiang River is a main branch of the Pearl River, the largest river in South China. Droughts in this area have seriously influenced local water resource utilization, and socio-economic development. The spatiotemporal distribution of droughts and its responses to global climatic events are of critical significance for the assessment and early warning of drought disasters. In this paper, the spatiotemporal patterns of droughts characterized by Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function/Rotated Principal Components (REOF/RPC in the Xijiang River Basin, China were evaluated using the Self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (Sc-PDSI. The drought responses to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, India Ocean Dipole (IOD, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO were analysed by Pearson correlation and multiple stepwise regression. The results showed that one year earlier NAO was the dominant factor impacting the droughts in the Xijiang Basin. Its contribution for the RPC2s of the annual, the first and second half years, winter, summer, autumn, and February were −0.556, −0.419, 0.597, −0.447, 0.542, 0.600, and −0.327, respectively. Besides the two adjacent Pacific and India oceans, the droughts seem be influenced by distant Atlantic climatic events. These results offer new reference insights into the early warning of droughts as well as the planning and management of water resources in the study area.

Impact of drought on wildfires in Iberia

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia M.; DaCamara, Carlos; Sousa, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2015-04-01

Southern European countries, and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in particular, have been vastly affected by summer wildfires (Trigo et al., 2013). This condition is hampered by the frequent warm and dry meteorological conditions found in summer which play a significant role in the triggering and spreading of wildfires. These meteorological conditions are also particularly important for the onset and end of drought periods, a phenomenon that has recurrently affected the IP (Gouveia et al., 2012). Moreover, the IP corresponds to one of the most sensitive areas to current and future climate change, and recent and future trends towards a dryer and warmer Mediterranean climate (Sousa et al., 2014) will tend to exacerbate these problems. The main scope of this study was to investigate the impact of drought on wildfires' burned areas in the IP. The objective was to examine the correlation between drought, as expressed by both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010), and wildfire burned areas. The SPI and SPEI were both calculated for 4 large regions (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes were shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions (Trigo et al., 2013). In this study, the drought indices were determined for the time scales of 3 and 6 months for August and for 12 months in September, thus representing the summer and annual drought. The correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the 3 months SPEI and SPI relatively to the 6 and 12 time scales, which indicates that drought and fires relation is a small-size scale process. Moreover, the correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the Northern and Southwestern regions both for SPEI for 3 and 6

Thinning, tree-growth, and resistance to multi-year drought in a mixed-conifer forest of northern California

Science.gov (United States)

Vernon, Michael J.; Sherriff, Rosemary L.; van Mantgem, Phillip; Kane, Jeffrey M.

2018-01-01

Drought is an important stressor in forest ecosystems that can influence tree vigor and survival. In the U.S., forest managers use two primary management techniques to promote resistance and resilience to drought: prescribed fire and mechanical thinning. Generally applied to reduce fuels and fire hazard, treatments may also reduce competition for resources that may improve tree-growth and reduce mortality during drought. A recent severe and prolonged drought in California provided a natural experiment to investigate tree-growth responses to fuel treatments and climatic stress. We assessed tree-growth from 299 ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in treated and untreated stands during severe drought from 2012 to 2015 in the mixed-conifer forests of Whiskeytown National Recreation Area (WNRA) in northern California. The treatment implemented at WNRA removed 34% of live basal area through mechanical thinning with a subsequent pile burning of residual fuels. Tree-growth was positively associated with crown ratio and negatively associated with competition and a 1-year lag of climate water deficit, an index of drought. Douglas-fir generally had higher annual growth than ponderosa pine, although factors affecting growth were the same for both species. Drought resistance, expressed as the ratio between mean growth during drought and mean growth pre-drought, was higher in treated stands compared to untreated stands during both years of severe drought (2014 and 2015) for ponderosa pine but only one year (2014) for Douglas-fir. Thinning improved drought resistance, but tree size, competition and species influenced this response. On-going thinning treatments focused on fuels and fire hazard reduction are likely to be effective at promoting growth and greater drought resistance in dry mixed-conifer forests. Given the likelihood of future droughts, land managers may choose to implement similar treatments to reduce potential impacts.

The influence of climate change on meteorological drought characteristic in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pao-Shan Yu; Chun-Chao Kuo; Chi-Wen Sung

2004-01-01

Global climate change and its influence on water resource are the worldwide issues. This study aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on drought characteristic in western Taiwan. This analysis on local climate change, may provide the reference for climate change study on Asia region. Thirty-one rainfall stations with at least 80 years records over western Taiwan provide the data set to analysis trend and change in the long term rainfall series. As the area of Taiwan is too small, the GCM is not suitable for our investigation on climate change. Therefore, the statistical methods of Cumulative Deviations test, Kruskal-Wallis test and Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test were applied to detect the change points of annual rainfall depth and detect whether the long-term rainfall series exist variation and tendency in the historical records. The analytical results reveal that a significant change point occurs during about 1960s for annual rainfall series. Two samples in the long- tern rainfall series are further divided based on this change point. Yearly rainfall depth increases in northern Taiwan and decreases in middle and southern Taiwan. Average values and standard deviation of monthly rainfall depth in these two samples are compared. A stable reducing tendency of average rainfall in the wet seasons (May to October) is found in middle and southern Taiwan and increasing tendency in northern Taiwan. We further investigate whether drought characteristic is difference before and after 1960. Nine irrigation areas in Taiwan are divided based on its irrigation system. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is estimated and compared with historical agriculture drought. It is found that 3-month SPI has better characteristic than 1-month SPI to respond the agriculture drought characteristic. Therefore, 3-month SPI for each irrigation area is estimated both before and after 1960. It is found that the frequency and duration of moderate dry (3-month SPI<-1.0) and severely dry

How do riparian woody seedlings survive seasonal drought?

Science.gov (United States)

Stella, John C; Battles, John J

2010-11-01

In semi-arid regions, a major population limitation for riparian trees is seedling desiccation during the dry season that follows annual spring floods. We investigated the stress response of first-year pioneer riparian seedlings to experimental water table declines (0, 1 and 3 cm day(-1)), focusing on the three dominant cottonwood and willows (family Salicaceae) in California's San Joaquin Basin. We analyzed growth and belowground allocation response to water stress, and used logistic regression to determine if these traits had an influence on individual survival. The models indicate that high root growth (>3 mm day(-1)) and low shoot:root ratios (water-use efficiency for surviving water stress. Both S. gooddingii and sandbar willow (S. exigua) reduced leaf size from controls, whereas Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) sustained a 29% reduction in specific leaf area (from 13.4 to 9.6 m(2) kg(-1)). The functional responses exhibited by Goodding's willow, the more drought-tolerant species, may play a role in its greater relative abundance in dry regions such as the San Joaquin Basin. This study highlights the potential for a shift in riparian forest composition. Under a future drier climate regime or under reduced regulated river flows, our results suggest that willow establishment will be favored over cottonwood.

Oak sprouts grow better than seedlings under drought stress

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Pietras, Justyna; Stojanović, Marko; Knott, R.; Pokorný, Radek

2016-01-01

Roč. 9, č. 4 (2016), s. 529-535 ISSN 1971-7458 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0267 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : drought stress * sap flow * transpiration * biomass Production * sessile Oak * sprout * seedling Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.623, year: 2016

Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Yilin; Leung, L. Ruby; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

2017-08-01

The Amazon basin has experienced periodic droughts in the past, and intense and frequent droughts are predicted in the future. Landscape heterogeneity could play an important role in how tropical forests respond to drought by influencing water available to plants. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, numerical experiments were performed for a catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, even in the plateau with much deeper water table depth during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed as the soil saturation is still sufficient for the stomata to be fully open based on the empirical wilting formulation in the models. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies. The results could be applicable to other catchments in the Amazon basin with similar seasonal variability and hydrologic regimes.

The U.S./Canadian GEO Bilateral Drought Indices and Definitions Study: Implications for the Canadian Drought Monitor and a Global Drought Early Warning System

Science.gov (United States)

Hadwen, T.; Heim, R. R.; Howard, A.

2011-12-01

Drought is a difficult phenomenon to define; the way in which it is monitored, measured, assessed and even the very definition of drought vary from location to location based on the regional climate and the potential impacts. Drought is not an absolute condition but an evolving state brought on by relatively dry weather, growing more severe over time. There are many factors that define a drought and many more that define its impacts. Many definitions and indices are based solely on meteorological characteristics. Although this approach has merit, it is often necessary to go further to define those meteorological conditions in a way that is relevant to the land and water use in a region. A Drought Indices and Definitions Study was initiated in 2010 as part of a GEO Bilateral effort to examine drought across the U.S. and Canada. The Study's deliverables will include a survey of the drought indices used to monitor drought, and a bibliography of research addressing the nature of drought, across the diverse climates of the continent. With an increasing pressure to utilize drought monitoring as a primary indicator of need for disaster assistance, the reliability of drought indices must be validated and utilized in appropriate in various regions. In 2009, following over five years of participation in the North American Drought Monitor (NA-DM), the National Agroclimate Information Service of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada initiated a project to develop a Canadian Drought Monitor (Can-DM), based on primary principles used in the NA-DM and the US Drought Monitor (US-DM). The process of developing an operational monitoring tool and using drought indices in a vast and environmentally diverse country has been challenging. in Canada, many of the commonly used indices are not appropriate in certain regions or data densities do not allow for proper use. This paper will discuss the experiences that the Can-DM team has had dealing with these challenges, how these experiences

The hydroclimatology of UK droughts: evidence from newly recovered and reconstructed datasets from the late 19th century to present

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, K. A.; Hannaford, J.; Bloomfield, J.; McCarthy, M.; Parry, S.; Barker, L. J.; Svensson, C.; Tanguy, M.; Marchant, B.; McKenzie, A.; Legg, T.; Prudhomme, C.

2017-12-01

While the UK is regarded as a wet country, it has periodically suffered from major droughts which have caused serious environmental and societal impacts. Parts of the UK are water stressed and, in a warming world, changes to supply/demand balances could have major implications. There is a pressing need for improved tools for drought risk assessment, which is contingent on a proper understanding of past occurrence of droughts. However, our understanding of hydrological drought occurrence is grounded in the post-1960 period when most UK river flow and groundwater records commenced. As such, water resources planners would benefit from a more thorough assessment of historical drought characteristics and their variability. The multi-disciplinary `Historic Droughts' project thus aims to rigorously characterise droughts in the UK back to the 1890s to inform improved drought management. The foundation of this is a comprehensive characterisation of the hydroclimatology of UK droughts. Here, we present the results of this initiative, based on a hydrological reconstruction campaign of unparalleled scope and detail. Driven by rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data, extended in time using newly recovered observational records, hydro(geo)logical models are used to reconstruct, back to 1890, river flows for >300 catchments across the UK, and groundwater levels from >50 boreholes. The reconstructions are derived within a state-of-the-art modelling framework which allows a comprehensive assessment of uncertainty. A suite of indicators are then applied to these datasets to identify and characterise drought events, integrating precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow and groundwater. The work provides new insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of hitherto poorly quantified late 19th and early 20th century droughts. Similarly, the assessment of temporal variability of drought characteristics benefits from the long timescale of the reconstructions, in turn

Flow rate and biological quality of the water in the river Anoia; Caudal y calidad biologica de las aguas del rio Anoia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munne, A.; Prat, N. [Departamento d`Ecologia, Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelon, Barcelona (Spain)

1997-04-01

Floods and droughts are typical in Mediterranean rivers, with large annual and inter annual fluctuations in flow. This is the case of the river Anoia in which in addition, water is intensively used for agriculture, industry and urban supply. This causes the flow to be scarce in summer and an increase in river pollution due to the lack dilution. We studied the river during two consecutive springs and summers (1994-1995) with very different hydrology. While in 1994 the basin was subject to a severe drought, in 1995 the climate was milder. As a result in 1995 the main river maintained a continuous flow throughout mos of its length and in most of the tributaries, while in 1994 flow was intermittent in the main channel and the tributaries. Lower fluxes in 1994 resulted in increased pollution which can be measured by both the physico-chemical characteristics of the water and biotic indices. As the basin is used in headwaters for agriculture, water in the upper part is rich in nitrogen an phosphorus, leading to eutrophication process with Cladophora abundant in the river, although the macro invertebrate community is still rich. In the middle part of the basin, in summer, the community is reduced in abundance and diversity due to the water abstraction and pollution, especially in 1994. In the lower part of the area studied, the river is devoid of macro invertebrates due to the inadequate water sewage treatment and the lack of dilution. In this study we compare the evolution of biological water quality in the two sampled years by two different biotic indices (BILL and BMWP). (Author) 15 refs.

Magnitude of flood flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities in Rhode Island through 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Ahearn, Elizabeth A.; Levin, Sara B.

2012-01-01

Heavy persistent rains from late February through March 2010 caused severe widespread flooding in Rhode Island that set or nearly set record flows and water levels at many long-term streamgages in the State. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in partnership with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, conducted a study to update estimates of flood magnitudes at streamgages and regional equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged locations. This report provides information needed for flood plain management, transportation infrastructure design, flood insurance studies, and other purposes that can help minimize future flood damages and risks. The magnitudes of floods were determined from the annual peak flows at 43 streamgages in Rhode Island (20 sites), Connecticut (14 sites), and Massachusetts (9 sites) using the standard Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method and a modification of this method called the expected moments algorithm (EMA) for 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) floods. Annual-peak flows were analyzed for the period of record through the 2010 water year; however, records were extended at 23 streamgages using the maintenance of variance extension (MOVE) procedure to best represent the longest period possible for determining the generalized skew and flood magnitudes. Generalized least square regression equations were developed from the flood quantiles computed at 41 streamgages (2 streamgages in Rhode Island with reported flood quantiles were not used in the regional regression because of regulation or redundancy) and their respective basin characteristics to estimate magnitude of floods at ungaged sites. Of 55 basin characteristics evaluated as potential explanatory variables, 3 were statistically significant—drainage area, stream density, and basin storage. The pseudo-coefficient of determination (pseudo-R2) indicates these three explanatory variables explain 95 to 96 percent of the variance

Characteristics and drivers of drought in Europe-a summary of the DROUGHT-R&SPI project

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stagge, James H.; Stahl, Kerstin; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Loon, van Anne F.; Lanen, van Henny A.J.

2015-01-01

A prerequisite to mitigate the wide range of drought impacts is to establish a good understanding of the drought generating mechanisms from their initiation as a meteorological drought through to their development as soil moisture and hydrological drought. The DROUGHT-R&SPI project has

How drought severity constrains gross primary production(GPP) and its partitioning among carbon pools in a Quercus ilex coppice?

Science.gov (United States)

Rambal, S.; Lempereur, M.; Limousin, J. M.; Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ourcival, J. M.; Rodríguez-Calcerrada, J.

2014-12-01

The partitioning of photosynthates toward biomass compartments plays a crucial role in the carbon (C) sink function of forests. Few studies have examined how carbon is allocated toward plant compartments in drought-prone forests. We analyzed the fate of gross primary production (GPP) in relation to yearly water deficit in an old evergreen Mediterranean Quercus ilex coppice severely affected by water limitations. Carbon fluxes between the ecosystem and the atmosphere were measured with an eddy covariance flux tower running continuously since 2001. Discrete measurements of litterfall, stem growth and fAPAR allowed us to derive annual productions of leaves, wood, flowers and acorns, and an isometric relationship between stem and belowground biomass has been used to estimate perennial belowground growth. By combining eddy covariance fluxes with annual net primary productions (NPP), we managed to close a C budget and derive values of autotrophic, heterotrophic respirations and carbon-use efficiency (CUE; the ratio between NPP and GPP). Average values of yearly net ecosystem production (NEP), GPP and Reco were 282, 1259 and 977 g C m-2. The corresponding aboveground net primary production (ANPP) components were 142.5, 26.4 and 69.6 g C m-2 for leaves, reproductive effort (flowers and fruits) and stems, respectively. NEP, GPP and Reco were affected by annual water deficit. Partitioning to the different plant compartments was also impacted by drought, with a hierarchy of responses going from the most affected - the stem growth - to the least affected - the leaf production. The average CUE was 0.40, which is well in the range for Mediterranean-type forest ecosystems. CUE tended to decrease less drastically in response to drought than GPP and NPP did, probably due to drought acclimation of autotrophic respiration. Overall, our results provide a baseline for modeling the inter-annual variations of carbon fluxes and allocation in this widespread Mediterranean ecosystem, and

Testing the sensitivity of trade linkages in Europe to compound drought events

Science.gov (United States)

Veldkamp, Ted; Koks, Elco; Thissen, Mark; Wahl, Thomas; Haigh, Ivan; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip

2017-04-01

Droughts can be defined as spatially extensive events that are characterized by temporal deficits in precipitation, soil moisture or streamflow, and have the potential to cause large direct and indirect economic losses. Many European countries face drought as an economically important hazard, with agriculture, livestock, forestry, energy, industry, and water sectors particularly at risk, causing economic losses of 139 billion US over the past 30 years. Apart from these direct impacts, business production and the flow of goods and services can be affected indirectly by droughts. With consequences that can propagate through the economic system affecting regions not directly hit by the drought event itself, or in time-periods long after the original drought event occurred. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of existing trade linkages between the different NUTS-2 regions in Europe to the coupled occurrence of hydro-meteorological drought events, and their associated production losses. Using a multi-regional supply-use model for Europe, we have, on a product level, insight in the existing trade linkages between NUTS-2 regions. Using this information in combination with historical drought data, we assessed and identified for a selection of water related products: 1) the dependency-structures of the NUTS-2 regions within Europe for the import and export of products (and therein water); 2) the coupled nature of drought events occurring in regions that are linked via these trade-patterns; 3) the probability of not meeting demands (on a product level) due to drought events and the associated (indirect economic) impacts; and 4) regions that lose or benefit from their selection of trade-partners given the coupled nature of drought events, as well as the net effects for Europe as a whole.

Repeated drought alters resistance of seed bank regeneration in baldcypress swamps of North America

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Ting; Middleton, Beth A.

2018-01-01

Recurring drying and wetting events are likely to increase in frequency and intensity in predicted future droughts in the central USA and alter the regeneration potential of species. We explored the resistance of seed banks to successive droughts in 53 sites across the nine locations in baldcypress swamps in the southeastern USA. Along the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley and northern Gulf of Mexico, we investigated the capacity of seed banks to retain viable seeds after successive periods of drying and wetting in a greenhouse study. Mean differences in species richness and seed density were compared to examine the interactions of successive droughts, geographical location and water regime. The results showed that both species richness and total density of germinating seedlings decreased over repeated drought trials. These responses were more pronounced in geographical areas with higher annual mean temperature. In seed banks across the southeastern swamp region, most species were exhausted after Trial 2 or 3, except for semiaquatic species in Illinois and Tennessee, and aquatic species in Texas. Distinct geographical trends in seed bank resistance to drought demonstrate that climate-induced drying of baldcypress swamps could influence the regeneration of species differently across their ranges. Despite the health of adult individuals, lack of regeneration may push ecosystems into a relict status. Seed bank depletion by germination without replenishment may be a major conservation threat in a future with recurring droughts far less severe than megadrought. Nevertheless, the protection of moist refugia might aid conservation.

Ecological drought: Accounting for the non-human impacts of water shortage in the Upper Missouri Headwaters Basin, Montana, USA

Science.gov (United States)

McEvoy, Jamie; Bathke, Deborah J.; Burkardt, Nina; Cravens, Amanda; Haigh, Tonya; Hall, Kimberly R.; Hayes, Michael J.; Jedd, Theresa; Podebradska, Marketa; Wickham, Elliot

2018-01-01

Water laws and drought plans are used to prioritize and allocate scarce water resources. Both have historically been human-centric, failing to account for non-human water needs. In this paper, we examine the development of instream flow legislation and the evolution of drought planning to highlight the growing concern for the non-human impacts of water scarcity. Utilizing a new framework for ecological drought, we analyzed five watershed-scale drought plans in southwestern Montana, USA to understand if, and how, the ecological impacts of drought are currently being assessed. We found that while these plans do account for some ecological impacts, it is primarily through the narrow lens of impacts to fish as measured by water temperature and streamflow. The latter is typically based on the same ecological principles used to determine instream flow requirements. We also found that other resource plans in the same watersheds (e.g., Watershed Restoration Plans, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Watershed Assessments or United States Forest Service (USFS) Forest Plans) identify a broader range of ecological drought risks. Given limited resources and the potential for mutual benefits and synergies, we suggest greater integration between various planning processes could result in a more holistic consideration of water needs and uses across the landscape.

Seasonal soil VOC exchange rates in a Mediterranean holm oak forest and their responses to drought conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Asensio, Dolores; Peñuelas, Josep; Ogaya, Romà; Llusià, Joan

Available information on soil volatile organic compound (VOC) exchange, emissions and uptake, is very scarce. We here describe the amounts and seasonality of soil VOC exchange during a year in a natural Mediterranean holm oak forest growing in Southern Catalonia. We investigated changes in soil VOC dynamics in drought conditions by decreasing the soil moisture to 30% of ambient conditions by artificially excluding rainfall and water runoff, and predicted the response of VOC exchange to the drought forecasted in the Mediterranean region for the next decades by GCM and ecophysiological models. The annual average of the total (detected) soil VOC and total monoterpene exchange rates were 3.2±3.2 and -0.4±0.3 μg m -2 h -1, respectively, in control plots. These values represent 0.003% of the total C emitted by soil at the study site as CO 2 whereas the annual mean of soil monoterpene exchange represents 0.0004% of total C. Total soil VOC exchange rates in control plots showed seasonal variations following changes in soil moisture and phenology. Maximum values were found in spring (17±8 μg m -2 h -1). Although there was no significant global effect of drought treatment on the total soil VOC exchange rates, annual average of total VOC exchange rates in drought plots resulted in an uptake rate (-0.5±1.8 μg m -2 h -1) instead of positive net emission rates. Larger soil VOC and monoterpene exchanges were measured in drought plots than in control plots in summer, which might be mostly attributable to autotrophic (roots) metabolism. The results show that the diversity and magnitude of monoterpene and VOC soil emissions are low compared with plant emissions, that they are driven by soil moisture, that they represent a very small part of the soil-released carbon and that they may be strongly reduced or even reversed into net uptakes by the predicted decreases of soil water availability in the next decades. In all cases, it seems that VOC fluxes in soil might have greater

Characterizing drought in terms of changes in the precipitation–runoff relationship: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

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Y. Zhang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The frequency and intensity of drought are increasing dramatically with global warming. However, few studies have characterized drought in terms of its impacts on ecosystem services, the mechanisms through which ecosystems support life. As a result, little is known about the implications of increased drought for resource management. This case study characterizes drought by linking climate anomalies with changes in the precipitation–runoff relationship (PRR on the Loess Plateau of China, a water-limited region where ongoing revegetation makes drought a major concern. We analyzed drought events with drought durations  ≥  5 years and mean annual precipitation anomaly (PA values  ≤  −5 % during drought periods. The results show that continuous precipitation shifts are able to change the water balance of watersheds in water-limited areas, and multi-year drought events cause the PRR to change with a significantly decreasing trend (p < 0.05 compared to other historical records. For the Loess Plateau as a whole, the average runoff ratio decreased from 10 to 6.8  % during 1991–1999. The joint probability and return period gradually increase with increasing of drought duration and severity. The ecosystem service of water yield is easily affected by drought events with durations equal to or greater than 6 years and drought severity values equal to or greater than 0.55 (precipitation  ≤  212 mm. At the same time, multi-year drought events also lead to significant changes in the leaf area index (LAI. Such studies are essential for ecosystem management in water-limited areas.

Drought in the Emerald City

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Babcock, S.D.

1993-01-01

This paper discusses a drought preparedness study being conducted for the Cedar River and Green River basins in western Washington state. The study is one of four regional case studies being managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as part of the National Study of Water Management During Drought. The overriding objective of the drought preparedness study is to leave the region better prepared for drought, through demonstration and test of drought preparedness tools and strategies. The study has served as a vehicle to promote a greater regional focus on drought related water supply problem solving. The 1992 drought in the Seattle/Tacoma metropolitan area provided a unique opportunity for the study team to demonstrate approaches to drought management being researched and tested as part of the study

Drought severity in intensive agricultural areas by means of the EDI index

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Procházková, Petra; Chuchma, Filip; Středa, Tomáš

2016-12-01

The aim of this work was the evaluation of drought severity development in the Czech Republic for the period 1971-2015 by the means of the Effective Drought Index (EDI). Annual values of the EDI index were determined using the method of effective precipitation for 14 localities spread throughout the Czech Republic (Central Europe). The seven categories were created according to obtained index values for the drought conditions determination for years during the period 1971-2015 through the percentile method. The annual index values were compared with acquired 2nd, 15th, 45th, 55th, 85th and 98th percentiles. Both the years with precipitation unfavourable conditions: 1972, 1973, 1984, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 2015 and the years with precipitation favourable conditions: 1977, 1987, 1995, 2001, 2002 and 2010 were determined. Precipitation conditions in the growing season from 61st to 180th day of the year were also analysed. This evaluation was conducted during the period 1971-2015 through the ten-day index values which were compared with acquired 2nd, 15th, 45th, 55th, 85th and 98th percentiles. Dry growing seasons occurred in 1973, 1974, 1976 and 1993. Wet growing seasons occurred in 1987, 2006 and 2010. Trend analysis of annual index values was performed through the Mann-Kendall test. Highly statistically significant increasing linear trends (P < 0.01) were found for four localities (Uherský Ostroh, Vysoká, Znojmo-Oblekovice and Žatec); statistically significant increasing trends (P < 0.05) were found for three localities (Brno-Chrlice, Lednice and Lípa). Based on the extrapolation of the trend, a slightly higher effective precipitation can be expected during the year in a substantial part of the country. However, these findings do not necessarily mean an optimal supply of agricultural land with water. Precipitation exhibits considerable unevenness of distribution through time. Given the increasing evapotranspiration demands of the environment their

The response of tropical rainforests to drought-lessons from recent research and future prospects.

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Bonal, Damien; Burban, Benoit; Stahl, Clément; Wagner, Fabien; Hérault, Bruno

We review the recent findings on the influence of drought on tree mortality, growth or ecosystem functioning in tropical rainforests. Drought plays a major role in shaping tropical rainforests and the response mechanisms are highly diverse and complex. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical rainforests on the three continents. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance. Tropical rainforest ecosystems are characterized by high annual rainfall. Nevertheless, rainfall regularly fluctuates during the year and seasonal soil droughts do occur. Over the past decades, a number of extreme droughts have hit tropical rainforests, not only in Amazonia but also in Asia and Africa. The influence of drought events on tree mortality and growth or on ecosystem functioning (carbon and water fluxes) in tropical rainforest ecosystems has been studied intensively, but the response mechanisms are complex. Herein, we review the recent findings related to the response of tropical forest ecosystems to seasonal and extreme droughts and the current knowledge about the future of these ecosystems. This review emphasizes the progress made over recent years and the importance of the studies conducted under extreme drought conditions or in through-fall exclusion experiments in understanding the response of these ecosystems. It also points to the great diversity and complexity of the response of tropical rainforest ecosystems to drought. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical forest regions. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance.

Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite

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J.-P. Vidal

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc. on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI. Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow. Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990 to short hot and dry periods (2003. Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly

Effects of drought on leaf gas exchange in an eastern broadleaf deciduous forest

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Roman, D. T.; Brzostek, E. R.; Dragoni, D.; Rahman, A. F.; Novick, K. A.; Phillips, R.

2013-12-01

Understanding plant physiological adaptations to drought is critical for predicting changes in ecosystem productivity that result from climate variability and future climate change. From 2011-2013, southern Indiana experienced a late growing season drought in 2011, a severe early season drought in 2012, and a wet growing season in 2013 characterized by an absence of water stress with frequent precipitation and milder temperatures. The 2012 drought was unique due to the severity and early onset drought conditions (compared to the more frequent late season drought) and was characterized by a Palmer Drought severity index below -4 and precipitation totals from May - July that were 70% less than the long-term (2000 - 2010) mean. During the 2012 drought, an 11% decline in net ecosystem productivity relative to the long-term mean was observed at the AmeriFlux tower in Morgan Monroe State Forest despite a growing season that started ~25 days earlier. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate species-specific contributions to the canopy-scale response to inter-annual variability in water stress. We investigated differences between tree species in their response to climate variability using weekly leaf gas exchange and leaf water potential measurements during the growing seasons of 2011-2013. We used this unique dataset, collected at the top of the canopy with a 25 m boom lift, to evaluate changes in leaf water status and maximum assimilation capacity in the drought versus non-drought years. The leaf-level physiology of oak (Quercus) species appears to be less sensitive to drought than other species (tulip poplar [Liriodendron tulipifera], sassafras [Sassafras albidum] and sugar maple [Acer saccharum]). Preliminary data shows mean canopy leaf water potential for oaks was 30.5% more negative in May-July 2012 versus the same time period in 2013. During these same periods the rate of C assimilation in oaks was reduced by only 3%, whereas other species were reduced by

Drought-induced changes in Amazon forest structure from repeat airborne lidar

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Morton, D. C.; Leitold, V.; Longo, M.; Keller, M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.

2017-12-01

Drought events in tropical forests, including the 2015-2016 El Niño, may reduce net primary productivity and increase canopy tree mortality, thereby altering the short and long-term net carbon balance of tropical forests. Given the broad extent of drought impacts, forest inventory plots or eddy flux towers may not capture regional variability in forest response to drought. Here, we analyzed repeat airborne lidar data to evaluate canopy turnover from branch and tree fall before (2013-2014) and during (2014-2016) the recent El Niño drought in the eastern and central Brazilian Amazon. Coincident field surveys for a 16-ha subset of the lidar coverage provided complementary information to classify turnover areas by mechanism (branch, multiple branch, tree fall, multiple tree fall) and estimate the total coarse woody debris volume from canopy and understory tree mortality. Annualized rates of canopy turnover increased by 50%, on average, during the drought period in both intact and fragmented forests near Santarém, Pará. Turnover increased uniformly across all size classes, and there was limited evidence that taller trees contributed a greater proportion of turnover events in any size class in 2014-2016 compared to 2013-2014. This short-term increase in canopy turnover differs from findings in multi-year rainfall exclusion experiments that large trees were more sensitive to drought impacts. Field measurements confirmed the separability of the smallest (single branch) and largest damage classes (multiple tree falls), but single tree and multiple branch fall events generated similar coarse woody debris production and lidar-derived changes in canopy volume. Large-scale sampling possible with repeat airborne lidar data also captured strong local and regional gradients in canopy turnover. Differences in slope partially explained the north-south gradient in canopy turnover dynamics near Santarém, with larger increases in turnover on flatter terrain. Regional variability

Assessing Agricultural Drought in the Anthropocene: A Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index

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Mingzhi Yang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In the current human-influenced era, drought is initiated by natural and human drivers, and human activities are as integral to drought as meteorological factors. In large irrigated agricultural regions with high levels of human intervention, where the natural farmland soil moisture has usually been changed significantly by high-frequency irrigation, the actual severity of agricultural drought is distorted in traditional drought indices. In this work, an agricultural drought index that considering irrigation processes based on the Palmer drought severity index (IrrPDSI was developed to interpret the real agricultural drought conditions in irrigated regions, with a case study in the Haihe River Basin in northeast China. The water balance model in the original PDSI was revised by an auto-irrigation threshold method combined with a local irrigation schedule. The auto-irrigation setting of the index was used by taking irrigation quotas during specific growth stages of specific crops (wheat–corn into consideration. A series of weekly comparative analyses are as follows: (1 The soil moisture analyses showed that soil moisture values calculated by the modified water balance model were close to the real values; (2 The statistical analyses indicated that most of the stations in the study area based on IrrPDSI had nearly normal distributed values; (3 The time series and spatial analyses showed that the results of the IrrPDSI-reported dry-wet evaluation were more consistent with documented real conditions. All the results revealed that IrrPDSI performed well when used to assess agricultural drought. This work has direct significance for agricultural drought management in large irrigated areas heavily disturbed by human activity.

The role of silicon in higher plants under salinity and drought stress

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Devrim Coskun

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Although deemed a non-essential mineral nutrient, silicon (Si is clearly beneficial to plant growth and development, particularly under stress conditions, including salinity and drought. Here, we review recent research on the physiological, biochemical, and molecular mechanisms underlying Si-induced alleviation of osmotic and ionic stresses associated with salinity and drought. We distinguish between changes observed in the apoplast (i.e. suberization, lignification, and silicification of the extracellular matrix; transpirational bypass flow of solutes and water, and those of the symplast (i.e. transmembrane transport of solutes and water; gene expression; oxidative stress; metabolism, and discuss these features in the context of Si biogeochemistry and bioavailability in agricultural soils, evaluating the prospect of using Si fertilization to increase crop yield and stress tolerance under salinity and drought conditions.

Response of surface and groundwater on meteorological drought in Topla River catchment, Slovakia

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Fendekova, Miriam; Fendek, Marian; Vrablikova, Dana; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Slivova, Valeria; Horvat, Oliver

2016-04-01

Continuously increasing number of drought studies published in scientific journals reflects the attention of the scientific community paid to drought. The fundamental works among many others were published by Yevjevich (1967), Zelenhasic and Salvai (1987), later by Tallaksen and van Lanen Eds. (2004). The aim of the paper was to analyze the response of surface and groundwater to meteorological drought occurrence in the upper and middle part of the Topla River Basin, Slovakia. This catchment belongs to catchments with unfavourable hydrogeological conditions, being built of rocks with quite low permeability. The basin is located in the north-eastern part of Slovakia covering the area of 1050.05 km2. The response was analyzed using precipitation data from the Bardejov station (long-term annual average of 662 mm in 1981 - 2012) and discharge data from two gauging stations - Bardejov and Hanusovce nad Toplou. Data on groundwater head from eight observation wells, located in the catchment, were also used, covering the same observation period. Meteorological drought was estimated using characterisation of the year humidity and SPI index. Hydrological drought was evaluated using the threshold level method and method of sequent peak algorithm, both with the fixed and also variable thresholds. The centroid method of the cluster analysis with the squared Euclidean distance was used for clustering data according to occurrence of drought periods, lasting for 100 days and more. Results of the SPI index showed very good applicability for drought periods identification in the basin. The most pronounced dry periods occurred in 1982 - 1983, 1984, 1998 and 2012 being classified as moderately dry, and also in 1993 - 1994, 2003 - 2004 and 2007 evolving from moderately to severely dry years. Short-term drought prevailed in discharges, only three periods of drought longer than 100 days occurred during the evaluated period in 1986 - 1987, 1997 and 2003 - 2004. Discharge drought in the

Drought Dynamics and Vegetation Productivity in Different Land Management Systems of Eastern Cape, South Africa—A Remote Sensing Perspective

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Valerie Graw

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Eastern Cape Province in South Africa has experienced extreme drought events during the last decade. In South Africa, different land management systems exist belonging to two different land tenure classes: commercial large scale farming and communal small-scale subsistence farming. Communal lands are often reported to be affected by land degradation and drought events among others considered as trigger for this process. Against this background, we analyzed vegetation response to drought in different land management and land tenure systems through assessing vegetation productivity trends and monitoring the intensity, frequency and distribution of the drought hazard in grasslands and communal and commercial croplands during drought and non-drought conditions. For the observation period 2000–2016, we used time series of 250 m Vegetation Condition Index (VCI based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI and Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS precipitation data with 5 km resolution. For the assessment of vegetation dynamics, we: (1 analyzed vegetation productivity in Eastern Cape over the last 16 years with EVI; (2 analyzed the impact of drought events on vegetation productivity in grasslands as well as commercial and communal croplands; and (3 compared precipitation-vegetation dynamics between the drought season 2015/2016 and the non-drought season 2011/2012. Change in total annual vegetation productivity could detect drought years while drought dynamics during the season could be rather monitored by the VCI. Correlation of vegetation condition and precipitation indicated areas experiencing significant vegetation productivity trends showing low and even negative correlation coefficients indicating other drivers for productivity change and drought impact besides rainfall.

Experimental droughts: Are precipitation variability and methodological trends hindering our understanding of ecological sensitivities to drought?

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Hoover, D. L.; Wilcox, K.; Young, K. E.

2017-12-01

Droughts are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may have dramatic and prolonged effects on ecosystem structure and function. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing, and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify the mechanisms governing ecological resistance and resilience. However, to date, the results from these experiments have varied widely, and thus patterns of drought sensitivities have been difficult to discern. This lack of consensus at the field scale, limits the abilities of experiments to help improve land surface models, which often fail to realistically simulate ecological responses to extreme events. This is unfortunate because models offer an alternative, yet complementary approach to increase the spatial and temporal assessment of ecological sensitivities to drought that are not possible in the field due to logistical and financial constraints. Here we examined 89 published drought experiments, along with their associated historical precipitation records to (1) identify where and how drought experiments have been imposed, (2) determine the extremity of drought treatments in the context of historical climate, and (3) assess the influence of precipitation variability on drought experiments. We found an overall bias in drought experiments towards short-term, extreme experiments in water-limited ecosystems. When placed in the context of local historical precipitation, most experimental droughts were extreme, with 61% below the 5th, and 43% below the 1st percentile. Furthermore, we found that interannual precipitation variability had a large and potentially underappreciated effect on drought experiments due to the co-varying nature of control and drought treatments. Thus detecting ecological effects in experimental droughts is strongly influenced by the interaction between drought treatment magnitude, precipitation variability, and key

Drought-induced defoliation and long periods of near-zero gas exchange play a key role in accentuating metabolic decline of Scots pine.

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Poyatos, Rafael; Aguadé, David; Galiano, Lucía; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

2013-10-01

Drought-induced defoliation has recently been associated with the depletion of carbon reserves and increased mortality risk in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). We hypothesize that defoliated individuals are more sensitive to drought, implying that potentially higher gas exchange (per unit of leaf area) during wet periods may not compensate for their reduced photosynthetic area. We measured sap flow, needle water potentials and whole-tree hydraulic conductance to analyse the drought responses of co-occurring defoliated and nondefoliated Scots pines in northeast Spain during typical (2010) and extreme (2011) drought conditions. Defoliated Scots pines showed higher sap flow per unit leaf area during spring, but were more sensitive to summer drought, relative to nondefoliated pines. This pattern was associated with a steeper decline in soil-to-leaf hydraulic conductance with drought and an enhanced sensitivity of canopy conductance to soil water availability. Near-homeostasis in midday water potentials was observed across years and defoliation classes, with minimum values of -2.5 MPa. Enhanced sensitivity to drought and prolonged periods of near-zero gas exchange were consistent with low levels of carbohydrate reserves in defoliated trees. Our results support the critical links between defoliation, water and carbon availability, and their key roles in determining tree survival and recovery under drought. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of projected water use for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer, western and central Oklahoma

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Ellis, John H.; Mashburn, Shana L.; Graves, Grant M.; Peterson, Steven M.; Smith, S. Jerrod; Fuhrig, Leland T.; Wagner, Derrick L.; Sanford, Jon E.

2017-02-13

This report describes a study of the hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer in western and central Oklahoma conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The report (1) quantifies the groundwater resources of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer by developing a conceptual model, (2) summarizes the general water quality of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer groundwater by using data collected during August and September 2013, (3) evaluates the effects of estimated equal proportionate share (EPS) on aquifer storage and streamflow for time periods of 20, 40, and 50 years into the future by using numerical groundwater-flow models, and (4) evaluates the effects of present-day groundwater pumping over a 50-year period and sustained hypothetical drought conditions over a 10-year period on stream base flow and groundwater in storage by using numerical flow models. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer is a Quaternary-age alluvial and terrace unit consisting of beds of clay, silt, sand, and fine gravel sediments unconformably overlying Tertiary-, Permian-, and Pennsylvanian-age sedimentary rocks. For groundwater-flow modeling purposes, the Canadian River was divided into Reach I, extending from the Texas border to the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), and Reach II, extending downstream from the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), to the confluence of the river with Eufaula Lake. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer spans multiple climate divisions, ranging from semiarid in the west to humid subtropical in the east. The average annual precipitation in the study area from 1896 to 2014 was 34.4 inches per year (in/yr).A hydrogeologic framework of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was developed that includes the areal and vertical extent of the aquifer and the distribution, texture variability, and hydraulic properties of

USGS integrated drought science

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Ostroff, Andrea C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Lambert, Patrick M.; Booth, Nathaniel L.; Carter, Shawn L.; Stoker, Jason M.; Focazio, Michael J.

2017-06-05

Project Need and OverviewDrought poses a serious threat to the resilience of human communities and ecosystems in the United States (Easterling and others, 2000). Over the past several years, many regions have experienced extreme drought conditions, fueled by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation and exceptionally warm temperatures. Extreme drought has far-reaching impacts on water supplies, ecosystems, agricultural production, critical infrastructure, energy costs, human health, and local economies (Milly and others, 2005; Wihlite, 2005; Vörösmarty and others, 2010; Choat and others, 2012; Ledger and others, 2013). As global temperatures continue to increase, the frequency, severity, extent, and duration of droughts are expected to increase across North America, affecting both humans and natural ecosystems (Parry and others, 2007).The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long, proven history of delivering science and tools to help decision-makers manage and mitigate effects of drought. That said, there is substantial capacity for improved integration and coordination in the ways that the USGS provides drought science. A USGS Drought Team was formed in August 2016 to work across USGS Mission Areas to identify current USGS drought-related research and core capabilities. This information has been used to initiate the development of an integrated science effort that will bring the full USGS capacity to bear on this national crisis.

A Look into the National Drought Mitigation Center: Providing 15 Years of Drought Services (Invited)

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Svoboda, M. D.; Hayes, M. J.; Knutson, C. L.; Wardlow, B. D.

2009-12-01

The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) was formed in 1995 at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Over the past 15 years, the NDMC has made it a priority to work with various local, state, tribal and federal entities to provide a suite of drought/climate services, with a goal of bringing research to fruition through applications and operations. Through our research and outreach projects, the NDMC has worked to reduce risk to drought by developing several mitigation strategies, monitoring and decision making tools and other services aimed at enhancing our nation’s capacity to cope with drought. Two of the earliest NDMC activities were the creation of a website and assessing drought conditions around the United States. An electronic drought clearinghouse was built in 1995 at drought.unl.edu. The site was designed, and still concentrates, on the concepts of drought monitoring, planning, and mitigation and also serves as a repository of information from around the world. The NDMC’s electronic quarterly newsletter, DroughtScape, disseminates information about all things drought to people across the country. In addition, the NDMC has developed and is home to websites for the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), and the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI). In an effort to inform decision makers, the NDMC continually pursues ways to raise the awareness and visibility of drought as one of the most costly hazards we face. This began in the mid-1990s with the creation of a state-based drought impact assessment map that would help lead to the formation of the USDM in 1999 and the DIR in 2005. The NDMC plays a key role in producing the weekly USDM and the monthly North American Drought Monitor (NADM). The USDM was created out of collaborations between the NDMC, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and has quickly become one of the most widely used products in assessing

Drought timing and local climate determine the sensitivity of eastern temperate forests to drought.

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D'Orangeville, Loïc; Maxwell, Justin; Kneeshaw, Daniel; Pederson, Neil; Duchesne, Louis; Logan, Travis; Houle, Daniel; Arseneault, Dominique; Beier, Colin M; Bishop, Daniel A; Druckenbrod, Daniel; Fraver, Shawn; Girard, François; Halman, Joshua; Hansen, Chris; Hart, Justin L; Hartmann, Henrik; Kaye, Margot; Leblanc, David; Manzoni, Stefano; Ouimet, Rock; Rayback, Shelly; Rollinson, Christine R; Phillips, Richard P

2018-02-20

Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi-arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad-scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors-the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)-are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought-induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early-season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ 50 ) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early-season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Towards Improved Understanding of Drought and Drought Impacts from Long Term Earth Observation Records

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Champagne, C.; Wang, S.; Liu, J.; Hadwen, T. A.

2017-12-01

Drought is a complex natural disaster, which often emerges slowly, but can occur at various time scales and have impacts that are not well understood. Long term observations of drought intensity and frequency are often quantified from precipitation and temperature based indices or modelled estimates of soil water storage. The maturity of satellite based observations has created the potential to enhance the understanding of drought and drought impacts, particularly in regions where traditional data sets are limited by remoteness or inaccessibility, and where drought processes are not well-quantified by models. Long term global satellite data records now provide observations of key hydrological variables, including evaporation modelled from thermal sensors, soil moisture from microwave sensors, ground water from gravity sensors and vegetation condition that can be modelled from optical sensors. This study examined trends in drought frequency, intensity and duration over diverse ecoregions in Canada, including agricultural, grassland, forested and wetland areas. Trends in drought were obtained from the Canadian Drought Monitor as well as meteorological based indices from weather stations, and evaluated against satellite derived information on evaporative stress (Anderson et al. 2011), soil moisture (Champagne et al. 2015), terrestrial water storage (Wang and Li 2016) and vegetation condition (Davidson et al. 2009). Data sets were evaluated to determine differences in how different sensors characterize the hydrology and impacts of drought events from 2003 to 2016. Preliminary results show how different hydrological observations can provide unique information that can tie causes of drought (water shortages resulting from precipitation, lack of moisture storage or evaporative stress) to impacts (vegetation condition) that hold the potential to improve the understanding and classification of drought events.

Extreme drought alters frequency and reproductive success of floaters in Willow Flycatchers

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Theimer, Tad; Sogge, Mark K.; Cardinal, Suzanne N.; Durst, Scott L.; Paxton, Eben H.

2018-01-01

Changes in habitat quality, including those caused by extreme events like droughts and floods, could alter costs and benefits of territoriality and thereby the prevalence and reproductive consequences for individuals capable of breeding that do not do so (floaters). We studied floating behavior in a population of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii extimus) in central Arizona during one year of extreme drought, one year of lake inundation, and three years of near average precipitation. In all years, most floaters were second year (SY) males, and most subsequently settled outside of the patch where they were detected in the floating year, suggesting that floaters did not “queue” at high-quality territories in order to achieve higher reproductive success in subsequent years. Instead, cohorts that floated in non-drought years had lower apparent survival and lower reproductive success compared to territorial birds. In the extreme drought year, however, the number of floaters was 1.5 times greater than in all other years combined, more females floated, and apparent survival and mean annual productivity in subsequent years was higher for males that floated in that year than for those that were territorial. Inundation of habitat due to rising reservoir levels did not result in an increase in floaters because many birds nested in inundated areas where trees projected above the water so that the relative amount of available habitat was not reduced to the extent habitat models predicted. Overall, our results indicate that the prevalence and reproductive and demographic consequences of floating can change under extreme climatic events like severe drought.

Evaluation of Wild Lentil Species as Genetic Resources to Improve Drought Tolerance in Cultivated Lentil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda Y. Gorim

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Increasingly unpredictable annual rainfall amounts and distribution patterns have far reaching implications for pulse crop biology. Seedling and whole plant survival will be affected given that water is a key factor in plant photosynthesis and also influences the evolving disease spectrum that affects crops. The wild relatives of cultivated lentil are native to drought prone areas, making them good candidates for the evaluation of drought tolerance traits. We evaluated root and shoot traits of genotypes of cultivated lentil and five wild species grown under two water deficit regimes as well as fully watered conditions over a 13 week period indoors. Plants were grown in sectioned polyvinyl chloride (PVC tubes containing field soil from the A, B, and C horizons. We found that root distribution into different soil horizons varied among wild lentil genotypes. Secondly, wild lentil genotypes employed diverse strategies such as delayed flowering, reduced transpiration rates, reduced plant height, and deep root systems to either escape, evade or tolerate drought conditions. In some cases, more than one drought strategy was observed within the same genotype. Sequence based classification of wild and cultivated genotypes did not explain patterns of drought response. The environmental conditions at their centers of origin may explain the patterns of drought strategies observed in wild lentils. The production of numerous small seeds by wild lentil genotypes may have implications for yield improvement in lentil breeding programs.

Why Different Drought Indexes Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains?

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, S.; Hayes, M. J.; Trnka, M.

2015-12-01

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the US Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, we analyzed 10 commonly-used drought indexes using the output from 26 state-of-the-art climate models. These drought indices were computed using potential evapotranspiration estimated by the physically-based Penman-Monteith method (PE_pm) and the empirically-based Thornthwaite method (PE_th). The results showed that the short-term drought indicators are similar to modeled surface soil moisture and show a small but consistent drying trend in the future. The long-term drought indicators and the total column soil moisture, however, are consistent in projecting more intense future drought. When normalized, the drought indices with PE_th all show unprecedented and possibly unrealistic future drying, while the drought indices with PE_pm show comparable dryness with the modeled soil moisture. Additionally, the drought indices with PE_pm are closely related to soil moisture during both the 20th and 21st Centuries. Overall, the drought indices with PE_pm, as well as the modeled total column soil moisture, suggest a widespread and very significant drying of the Great Plains region toward the end of the Century. Our results suggested that the sharp contracts about future drought risk in the Great Plains discussed in previous studies are caused by 1) comparing the projected changes in short-term droughts with that of the long-term droughts, and/or 2) computing the atmospheric evaporative demand using the empirically-based method (e.g., PE_th). Our analysis may be applied for drought projections in other regions across the globe.

A simple flow-concentration modelling method for integrating water ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A simple flow-concentration modelling method for integrating water quality and ... flow requirements are assessed for maintenance low flow, drought low flow ... the instream concentrations of chemical constituents that will arise from different ...

Comparative Analysis of Drought Indices for Drought Zone Scheme of Northern Khorasan Province of Iran

OpenAIRE

Ehsan EYSHI REZAEI; Azade MOHAMMADIAN; Mansoreh KOOHI; Mohammad BANNAYAN

2011-01-01

Drought is one of the natural disasters which deeply influenced agricultural production. Drought monitoring programs could help to forecast and mitigate the impacts of drought. In this study occurrence, severity, and duration of drought were evaluated by monthly rainfall data (1986-2005) that were recorded at all meteorological stations in north Khorasan province of Iran. Drought indices include Standard Rainfall Index (SPI), Decades Index (DI) and Percent of Normal (PNI) calculated and compa...

Isoprene emission response to drought and the impact on global atmospheric chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Xiaoyan; Guenther, Alex; Potosnak, Mark; Geron, Chris; Seco, Roger; Karl, Thomas; Kim, Saewung; Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen

2018-06-01

Biogenic isoprene emissions play a very important role in atmospheric chemistry. These emissions are strongly dependent on various environmental conditions, such as temperature, solar radiation, plant water stress, ambient ozone and CO2 concentrations, and soil moisture. Current biogenic emission models (i.e., Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN) can simulate emission responses to some of the major driving variables, such as short-term variations in temperature and solar radiation, but the other factors are either missing or poorly represented. In this paper, we propose a new modelling approach that considers the physiological effects of drought stress on plant photosynthesis and isoprene emissions for use in the MEGAN3 biogenic emission model. We test the MEGAN3 approach by integrating the algorithm into the existing MEGAN2.1 biogenic emission model framework embedded into the global Community Land Model of the Community Earth System Model (CLM4.5/CESM1.2). Single-point simulations are compared against available field measurements at the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) field site. The modelling results show that the MEGAN3 approach of using of a photosynthesis parameter (Vcmax) and soil wetness factor (βt) to determine the drought activity factor leads to better simulated isoprene emissions in non-drought and drought periods. The global simulation with the MEGAN3 approach predicts a 17% reduction in global annual isoprene emissions, in comparison to the value predicted using the default CLM4.5/MEGAN2.1 without any drought effect. This reduction leads to changes in surface ozone and oxidants in the areas where the reduction of isoprene emissions is observed. Based on the results presented in this study, we conclude that it is important to simulate the drought-induced response of biogenic isoprene emission accurately in the coupled Earth System model.

Drought in Africa 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dalby, D; Harrison-Church, R J; Berzaz, F [eds.

1977-01-01

The second edition of Drought in Africa is reviewed. The book, which has been greatly expanded, looks at the Sahelian and Ethiopian droughts from a long-term perspective. Among the subjects included are: a description of the meteorological aspects of the drought; changes in animal and human populations; overpopulation of areas of nomadic pastoralism and of crop-producing areas; and mechanisms by which people survived. Cash crops, taxes, the market economy and over-centralized planning receive much of the blame for the effects of the drought.

[Physiological responses of mycorrhizal Pinus massoniana seedlings to drought stress and drought resistance evaluation].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yi; Ding, Gui-jie

2013-03-01

A greenhouse pot experiment was conducted to study the effects of inoculating Pisolithus tinctorius, Cenococcum geophilum, Cantharellus cibarius, and Suillus luteus on the physiological characteristics of Pinus massoniana seedlings under the conditions of drought stress and re-watering, with the drought resistance of the mycorrhizal seedlings evaluated. Under drought stress, the MDA content and membrane' s relative permeability of P. massoniana seedlings increased, but these two indices in the inoculated (mycorrhizal) seedlings were significantly lower than these in the un-inoculated (control) seedlings. After re-watering, the MDA content and membrane's relative permeability of mycorrhizal seedlings had a rapid decrease, as compared with the control. In the first 21 days of drought stress, the production rate of superoxide radical of the seedlings increased, and the SOD, POD and NR activities of mycorrhizal seedlings increased significantly. With the extending of drought stress, the seedlings after re-watering had different recovery ability. Under the re-watering after 14 days drought stress, the SOD, POD and NR activities recovered. The drought resistance of the mycorrhizal seedlings was in the order of Suillus luteus 1 > Suillus luteus 7 > Cantharellus cibarius > Cenococcum geophilum > Pisolithus tinctorius. The SOD and MDA activities had a greater correlation with the mycorrhizal seedlings drought resistance, being able to be used as the indicators to evaluate the drought resistance of mycorrhizal seedlings.

Variation of Annual ET Determined from Water Budgets Across Rural Southeastern Basins Differing in Forest Types

Science.gov (United States)

Younger, S. E.; Jackson, C. R.

2017-12-01

In the Southeastern United States, evapotranspiration (ET) typically accounts for 60-70% of precipitation. Watershed and plot scale experiments show that evergreen forests have higher ET rates than hardwood forests and pastures. However, some plot experiments indicate that certain hardwood species have higher ET than paired evergreens. The complexity of factors influencing ET in mixed land cover watersheds makes identifying the relative influences difficult. Previous watershed scale studies have relied on regression to understand the influences or low flow analysis to indicate growing season differences among watersheds. Existing studies in the southeast investigating ET rates for watersheds with multiple forest cover types have failed to identify a significant forest type effect, but these studies acknowledge small sample sizes. Trends of decreasing streamflow have been recognized in the region and are generally attributed to five key factors, 1.) influences from multiple droughts, 2.) changes in distribution of precipitation, 3.) reforestation of agricultural land, 4.) increasing consumptive uses, or 5.) a combination of these and other factors. This study attempts to address the influence of forest type on long term average annual streamflow and on stream low flows. Long term annual ET rates were calculated as ET = P-Q for 46 USGS gaged basins with daily data for the 1982 - 2014 water years, >40% forest cover, and no large reservoirs. Land cover data was regressed against ET to describe the relationship between each of the forest types in the National Land Cover Database. Regression analysis indicates evergreen land cover has a positive relationship with ET while deciduous and total forest have a negative relationship with ET. Low flow analysis indicates low flows tend to be lower in watersheds with more evergreen cover, and that low flows increase with increasing deciduous cover, although these relationships are noisy. This work suggests considering forest

Compounded effects of heat waves and droughts over the Western Electricity Grid: spatio-temporal scales of impacts and predictability toward mitigation and adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Voisin, N.; Kintner-Meyer, M.; Skaggs, R.; Xie, Y.; Wu, D.; Nguyen, T. B.; Fu, T.; Zhou, T.

2016-12-01

Heat waves and droughts are projected to be more frequent and intense. We have seen in the past the effects of each of those extreme climate events on electricity demand and constrained electricity generation, challenging power system operations. Our aim here is to understand the compounding effects under historical conditions. We present a benchmark of Western US grid performance under 55 years of historical climate, and including droughts, using 2010-level of water demand and water management infrastructure, and 2010-level of electricity grid infrastructure and operations. We leverage CMIP5 historical hydrology simulations and force a large scale river routing- reservoir model with 2010-level sectoral water demands. The regulated flow at each water-dependent generating plants is processed to adjust water-dependent electricity generation parameterization in a production cost model, that represents 2010-level power system operations with hourly energy demand of 2010. The resulting benchmark includes a risk distribution of several grid performance metrics (unserved energy, production cost, carbon emission) as a function of inter-annual variability in regional water availability and predictability using large scale climate oscillations. In the second part of the presentation, we describe an approach to map historical heat waves onto this benchmark grid performance using a building energy demand model. The impact of the heat waves, combined with the impact of droughts, is explored at multiple scales to understand the compounding effects. Vulnerabilities of the power generation and transmission systems are highlighted to guide future adaptation.

Performing drought indices to identify the relationship between agricultural losses and drought events in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Peña Gallardo, Marina; Serrano, Sergio Martín Vicente; Portugués Santiago, Beguería; Burguera Miquel, Tomás

2017-04-01

Drought leads to crop failures reducing the productivity. For this reason, the need of appropriate tool for recognize dry periods and evaluate the impact of drought on crop production is important. In this study, we provide an assessment of the relationship between drought episodes and crop failures in Spain as one of the direct consequences of drought is the diminishing of crop yields. First, different drought indices [the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI); the self-calibrated Palmer Moisture Anomaly Index (Z-Index), the self-calibrated Crop Moisture Index (CMI) and the Standardized Palmer Drought Index (SPDI)] have been calculated at different time scales in order to identify the dry events occurred in Spain and determine the duration and intensity of each event. Second, the drought episodes have been correlated with crop production estimated and final crop production data provided by the Spanish Crop Insurance System for the available period from 1995 to 2014 at the municipal spatial scale, with the purpose of knowing if the characteristics of the drought episodes are reflected on the agricultural losses. The analysis has been carried out in particular for two types of crop, wheat and barley. The results indicate the existence of an agreement between the most important drought events in Spain and the response of the crop productions and the proportion of hectare insurance. Nevertheless, this agreement vary depending on the drought index applied. Authors found a higher competence of the drought indices calculated at different time scales (SPEI, SPI and SPDI) identifying the begging and end of the drought events and the correspondence with the crop failures.

Vegetation productivity responses to drought on tribal lands in the four corners region of the Southwest USA

Science.gov (United States)

El-Vilaly, Mohamed Abd Salam; Didan, Kamel; Marsh, Stuart E.; van Leeuwen, Willem J. D.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Munoz, Armando Barreto

2018-03-01

For more than a decade, the Four Corners Region has faced extensive and persistent drought conditions that have impacted vegetation communities and local water resources while exacerbating soil erosion. These persistent droughts threaten ecosystem services, agriculture, and livestock activities, and expose the hypersensitivity of this region to inter-annual climate variability and change. Much of the intermountainWestern United States has sparse climate and vegetation monitoring stations, making fine-scale drought assessments difficult. Remote sensing data offers the opportunity to assess the impacts of the recent droughts on vegetation productivity across these areas. Here, we propose a drought assessment approach that integrates climate and topographical data with remote sensing vegetation index time series. Multisensor Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data from 1989 to 2010 at 5.6 km were analyzed to characterize the vegetation productivity changes and responses to the ongoing drought. A multi-linear regression was applied to metrics of vegetation productivity derived from the NDVI time series to detect vegetation productivity, an ecosystem service proxy, and changes. The results show that around 60.13% of the study area is observing a general decline of greenness ( pchallenges to the region's already stressed ecosystems. Whereas the results provide additional insights into this isolated and vulnerable region, the drought assessment approach used in this study may be adapted for application in other regions where surface-based climate and vegetation monitoring record is spatially and temporally limited.

Drought impact on wood formation and antioxidant protection of Scots pine cambial zone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. E. Sudachkova

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The effect of drought on the 8-9-year-old seedlings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. was simulated in the field by isolating trees from precipitation. The biochemical changes typical of water stress wеre compared with the structural changes of the annual rings of wood. The samples of the current and last year needles, cambium and adjoining layers of xylem and phloem of stems and roots were analyzed. In the needles, the content of chlorophyll a and b and carotenoids were determined. The contents of hydrogen peroxide and malondialdehyde (MDA, the activity of enzymes, realizing antioxidant protection: superoxide dismutase (SOD, peroxidase, glutathione reductase and content of sugars and starch were determined in tissues of xylem, phloem and cambium. It was shown that drought reduces the weight of the needles, the chlorophyll content and the width of the annual wood rings. In moderate drought in the cambial zone oxidative stress was developed and also protection system against free radicals was activated, which resulted in a high SOD activity and the accumulation of hydrogen peroxide due to the activity of peroxidase reduction. As a result, the division processes in cambial zone and cells extension growth were inhibited and the width of annual wood rings decreased due to reduction in the number and size of tracheids. It was found that decrease in growth was not due to deficit of carbohydrates for the process xylogenesis. Water deficit increases the concentration of low molecular weight carbohydrates in the tissues, which, due to the inhibition of division and extension cambial derivatives are only partially used for thickening tracheid cell walls. As a result, abnormal tracheides with reduced size of cells and lumens and thickened cell walls were formed. Abundance of soluble carbohydrates was deposited as a reserve pool in the root phloem in the form of starch. The stock function of root phloem was increased under water deficit conditions.

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi; Mishra, Ashok; Ruby Leung, L.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Deng, Zhiqun; Demissisie, Yonas; Wang, Hao

2017-11-01

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation and use the Standardized Streamflow Index to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous U.S. in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

River water quality modelling under drought situations – the Turia River case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Paredes-Arquiola

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Drought and water shortage effects are normally exacerbated due to collateral impacts on water quality, since low streamflow affects water quality in rivers and water uses depend on it. One of the most common problems during drought conditions is maintaining a good water quality while securing the water supply to demands. This research analyses the case of the Turia River Water Resource System located in Eastern Spain. Its main water demand comes as urban demand from Valencia City, which intake is located in the final stretch of the river, where streamflow may become very low during droughts. As a result, during drought conditions concentrations of pathogens and other contaminants increase, compromising the water supply to Valencia City. In order to define possible solutions for the above-mentioned problem, we have developed an integrated model for simulating water management and water quality in the Turia River Basin to propose solutions for water quality problems under water scarcity. For this purpose, the Decision Support System Shell AQUATOOL has been used. The results demonstrate the importance of applying environmental flows as a measure of reducing pollutant's concentration depending on the evolution of a drought event and the state of the water resources system.

The Drought Monitor.

Science.gov (United States)

Svoboda, Mark; Lecomte, Doug; Hayes, Mike; Heim, Richard; Gleason, Karin; Angel, Jim; Rippey, Brad; Tinker, Rich; Palecki, Mike; Stooksbury, David; Miskus, David; Stephens, Scott

2002-08-01

information about drought and to receive regional and local input that is in turn incorporated into the product. This paper describes the Drought Monitor and the interactive process through which it is created.

Resilient Leaf Physiological Response of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L. to Summer Drought and Drought Release

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellen E. Pflug

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Drought is a major environmental constraint to trees, causing severe stress and thus adversely affecting their functional integrity. European beech (Fagus sylvatica L. is a key species in mesic forests that is commonly expected to suffer in a future climate with more intense and frequent droughts. Here, we assessed the seasonal response of leaf physiological characteristics of beech saplings to drought and drought release to investigate their potential to recover from the imposed stress and overcome previous limitations. Saplings were transplanted to model ecosystems and exposed to a simulated summer drought. Pre-dawn water potentials (ψpd, stomatal conductance (gS, intercellular CO2 concentration (ci, net-photosynthesis (AN, PSII chlorophyll fluorescence (PItot, non-structural carbohydrate concentrations (NSC; soluble sugars, starch and carbon isotope signatures were measured in leaves throughout the growing season. Pre-dawn water potentials (ψpd, gS, ci, AN, and PItot decreased as drought progressed, and the concentration of soluble sugars increased at the expense of starch. Carbon isotopes in soluble sugars (δ13CS showed a distinct increase under drought, suggesting, together with decreased ci, stomatal limitation of AN. Drought effects on ψpd, ci, and NSC disappeared shortly after re-watering, while full recovery of gS, AN, and PItot was delayed by 1 week. The fast recovery of NSC was reflected by a rapid decay of the drought signal in δ13C values, indicating a rapid turnover of assimilates and a reactivation of carbon metabolism. After recovery, the previously drought-exposed saplings showed a stimulation of AN and a trend toward elevated starch concentrations, which counteracted the previous drought limitations. Overall, our results suggest that the internal water relations of beech saplings and the physiological activity of leaves are restored rapidly after drought release. In the case of AN, stimulation after drought may partially

Drought assessment in the Dongliao River basin: traditional approaches vs. generalized drought assessment index based on water resources systems

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, B. S.; Yan, D. H.; Wang, H.; Liu, J. H.; Yang, Z. Y.; Qin, T. L.; Yin, J.

2015-08-01

Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it evolves into a disaster issue. Drought events usually occur in a determinate but a random manner. Drought has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable socioeconomic development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources systems for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao River basin in northeastern China. The results simulated by the GDAI are compared to observed drought disaster records in the Dongliao River basin. In addition, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approaches in general (i.e., standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index and rate of water deficit index). Then, generalized drought times, generalized drought duration, and generalized drought severity were calculated by theory of runs. Application of said runs at various drought levels (i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) during the period 1960-2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them all distribute in the middle reaches of Dongliao River basin, and change with time. The proposed methodology may help water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, and consequently, to make decisions for coping with drought.

Quantifying water requirements of riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia: Implications for the management of environmental flows

Science.gov (United States)

Doody, Tanya M.; Colloff, Matthew J.; Davies, Micah; Koul, Vijay; Benyon, Richard G.; Nagler, Pamela L.

2015-01-01

Water resource development and drought have altered river flow regimes, increasing average flood return intervals across floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, causing health declines in riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) forests and woodlands. Environmental flow allocations helped to alleviate water stress during the recent Millennium Drought (1997–2010), however, quantification of the flood frequency required to support healthy E. camaldulensis communities is still needed. We quantified water requirements of E. camaldulensis for two years across a flood gradient (trees inundated at frequencies of 1:2, 1:5 and 1:10 years) at Yanga National Park, New South Wales to help inform management decision-making and design of environmental flows. Sap flow, evaporative losses and soil moisture measurements were used to determine transpiration, evapotranspiration and plant-available soil water before and after flooding. A formula was developed using plant-available soil water post-flooding and average annual rainfall, to estimate maintenance time of soil water reserves in each flood frequency zone. Results indicated that soil water reserves could sustain 1:2 and 1:5 trees for 15 months and six years, respectively. Trees regulated their transpiration rates, allowing them to persist within their flood frequency zone, and showed reduction in active sapwood area and transpiration rates when flood frequencies exceeded 1:2 years. A leaf area index of 0.5 was identified as a potential threshold indicator of severe drought stress. Our results suggest environmental water managers may have greater flexibility to adaptively manage floodplains in order to sustain E. camaldulensis forests and woodlands than has been appreciated hitherto.

Annual reduction of 90Sr migration from Solid Waste Storage Area 4 to White Oak Creek by flow diversion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melroy, L.A.; Huff, D.D.

1985-05-01

The discharge from Solid Waste Storage Area 4 (SWSA 4) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory was studied to determine the effect of a new flow diversion system on the annual flux of 90 Sr into White Oak Creek. The diversion structure was built in late 1983 to route runoff from the SWSA 4 catchment headwaters area (56% of the basin) around the burial ground, because an earlier study showed that this would be an effective remedial measure for reducing 90 Sr migration. A preliminary evaluation of the diversion was conducted during the winter of 1984, and an average flow reduction of 56% and a 90 Sr flux reduction of 44% were observed during the initial study period. The results presented here indicate that an overall annual flow reduction of 66% and an annual 90 Sr flux reduction of 47% were achieved during the 1984 calendar year. An additional goal of the study was to rank SWSA 4 and the surrounding areas as sources of 90 Sr input into White Oak Creek. Runoff from SWSA 4 was found to contribute 58% of the 90 Sr flux to the adjacent reach of White Oak Creek and therefore is the major source of contamination in that area. Statistical analysis suggests that the remaining 42% of the influx is attributable to groundwater inflows from adjacent contaminated areas rather than to the considerable uncertainty associated with flow and 90 Sr measurements

A Meta-analysis of Plant Photosynthetic Traits and Water-use efficiency Responses to Drought

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Drought is predicted to become more intense and frequent in many regions of the world in the context of climate change, especially in the semi-arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Understanding the plant photosynthetic traits (Pn, Gs and Tr) and water use efficiency (WUE) response to drought is very important with regard to plant growth and productivity, which could reflect the terrestrial primary productivity worldwide. We used a meta-analysis based on studies of a worldwide range and full plant species Pn, Gs, Tr and WUE under drought condition and aimed to determine the responses of Pn, Gs, Tr and WUE of different drought intensities (mild, moderate and severe), different photosynthetic pathways (C3 and C4) and growth forms (herbs, shrubs, trees and lianas). Furthermore, reveal the differences from different plant groups (e.g. C3 and C4 plants; annual (A-herbs) and perennial (P-herbs) herbs; conifer, deciduous and evergreen trees) under the same drought intensities. Additionally, we analyzed the relationship between stomatal conductance (Gs) with Pn, Tr and WUE. Our results were as follows: 1) drought decreased the photosynthetic traits with the drought stress increasing, but increased the water use efficiency, and increased to the greatest extent in lianas, compared with herbs, shrubs and trees. 2) Furthermore, C4 plants had an advantage in photosynthesis compared to C3 plants under the same drought conditions. However, the WUE in C4 plants was not promoted as in C3 plants. The photosynthesis traits showed a more substantial decrease in P-herbs than in A-herbs. The drought promoted the WUE in P-herbs, but inhibited it in A-herbs. Compared with conifer and deciduous trees, the photosynthesis traits declined the most in evergreen tree. The WUE in deciduous trees showed a more obvious increase among the three leaf habits. 3) Finally, the Gs showed a close relationship with photosynthesis rate (Pn) and transpiration rate (Tr), which could explain 50% of the

Local Perception of Drought Impacts in a Changing Climate: The Mega-Drought in Central Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulina Aldunce

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Droughts are a recurrent and complex natural hazard whose frequency and magnitude are expected to increase with climate change. Despite the advances in responding and adapting to droughts (with the development of new policies, for example, droughts continue to cause serious impacts and suffering. Developing well-targeted public policies requires further research on adaptation. Specifically, understanding the public perception of drought can help to identify drivers of and barriers to adaptation and options. This research seeks to understand the public perception of drought in central Chile in order to inform adaptation-related policies and decision-making processes. This study focused on the Mega-drought, which was a protracted dry spell afflicting central Chile since 2010.

Adaptability to climate change in forestry species: drought effects on growth and wood anatomy of ponderosa pines growing at different competition levels

OpenAIRE

Fernández, M.E.; Gyenge, J.E.; de Urquiza, M.M.; Varela, S.

2012-01-01

More stressful conditions are expected due to climatic change in several regions, including Patagonia, South-America. In this region, there are no studies about the impact of severe drought events on growth and wood characteristics of the most planted forestry species, Pinus ponderosa (Doug. ex-Laws). The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of a severe drought event on annual stem growth and functional wood anatomy of pines growing at different plantation densities aiming to un...

Drought preparedness and drought mitigation in the developing world׳s drylands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmoud Solh

2014-06-01

Drought is a climatic event that cannot be prevented, but interventions and preparedness to drought can help to: (i be better prepared to cope with drought; (ii develop more resilient ecosystems (iii improve resilience to recover from drought; and (iv mitigate the impacts of droughts. Preparedness strategies to drought include: (a geographical shifts of agricultural systems; (b climate-proofing rainfall-based systems; (c making irrigated systems more efficient; (d expanding the intermediate rainfed–irrigated systems. The paper presents successful research results and case studies applying some innovative techniques where clear impact is demonstrated to cope with drought and contribute to food security in dry areas. The CGIAR Consortium Research Program (CRP on “Integrated and Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems for Improved Food Security and Livelihoods in Dry Areas” (in short, “Dryland Systems”, led by ICARDA, was launched in May 2013 with many partners and stakeholders from 40 countries. It addresses farming systems in dry areas, at a global level, involving 80 partner institutions. The Dryland Systems Program aims at coping with drought and water scarcity to enhance food security and reduce poverty in dry areas through an integrated agro-ecosystem approach. It will also deliver science-based solutions that can be adopted in regions that are not yet experiencing extreme shocks, but will be affected in the medium to long-term. The approach entails shifting the thinking away from the traditional focus on a small number of research components to take an integrated approach aiming to address agro-ecosystems challenges. Such an approach involves crops, livestock, rangeland, trees, soils, water and policies. It is one of the first global research for development efforts that brings “systems thinking” to farming innovations leading to improved livelihoods in the developing world. The new technique uses modern innovation platforms to involve all

Operationalising resilience to drought: Multi-layered safety for flooding applied to droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Rijke, Jeroen; Smith, Jennifer Vessels; Gersonius, Berry; van Herk, Sebastiaan; Pathirana, Assela; Ashley, Richard; Wong, Tony; Zevenbergen, Chris

2014-11-01

This paper sets out a way of thinking about how to prepare for and respond to droughts in a holistic way using a framework developed for managing floods. It shows how the multi-layered safety (MLS) approach for flood resilience can be utilised in the context of drought in a way that three layers of intervention can be distinguished for operationalising drought resilience: (1) protection against water shortage through augmentation and diversification of water supplies; (2) prevention of damage in case of water shortage through increased efficiency of water use and timely asset maintenance; (3) preparedness for future water shortages through mechanisms to reduce the use of water and adopt innovative water technologies. Application of MLS to the cities of Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney shows that recent water reforms in these cities were primarily focused on protection measures that aim to reduce the hazard source or exposure to insufficient water supplies. Prevention and preparedness measures could be considered in defining interventions that aim to further increase the drought resilience of these cities. Although further research is needed, the application suggests that MLS can be applied to the context of drought risk management. The MLS framework can be used to classify the suite of plans deployed by a city to manage future drought risks and can be considered a planning tool to identify opportunities for increasing the level of redundancy and hence resilience of the drought risk management system.

Drought trends in the Iberian Peninsula over the last 112 years

Science.gov (United States)

Gouveia, Célia M.; Ramos, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2015-04-01

The Iberian Peninsula is often affected by drought events with strong influences in ecosystems and the related social and economic impacts (Gouveia et al. 2012, Trigo et al., 2013). In the last decades the severity of droughts in Iberia have increased due to the higher atmospheric evaporative demand (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2014). The need for a deeper knowledge of drought frequency, duration and intensity over the Iberian Peninsula during the last 112 years is reinforced by the findings showing that the period of 1970-2010 over the Mediterranean region was considered drier when compared with 1901-1970. Together with the increasing dryness, the projections point for an increase of drought conditions during the twenty-first century (Hoerling et al., 2012) will tend to exacerbate these problems. The evolution of drought in the Iberian Peninsula was analyzed, using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), for the period 1901-2012, and the sub-periods 1901-1937, 1938-1974 and 1975-2012. We have used SPI and SPEI for the time scale of 12 months, as obtained from CRU TS3.21 database between 1901 and 2012, using a spatial resolution of 0.5°. The drought indices were analyzed in order to identify significant trends during the entire period and sub-periods. Trends in annual precipitation and PET were also performed. Drought's duration, magnitude and time spanned between drought events were computed. SPI and SPEI significant trends show areas with opposite signals in the period 1901-2012, following precipitation patterns. Precipitation trends are significant and positive in the Northwestern region of the IP, and significant and negative in the Southern areas. SPEI identified dryer conditions and an increase in the area affected by droughts, which is in agreement with the increase in PET on the majority of the territory. The same spatial differences were identified in the drought duration, magnitude and

Species-specific intrinsic water use efficiency and its mediation of carbon assimilation during the drought

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Yi, K.; Wenzel, M. K.; Maxwell, J. T.; Novick, K. A.; Gray, A.; Roman, D. T.

2015-12-01

Drought is expected to occur more frequently and intensely in the future, and many studies have suggested frequent and intense droughts can significantly alter carbon and water cycling in forest ecosystems, consequently decreasing the ability of forests to assimilate carbon. Predicting the impact of drought on forest ecosystem processes requires an understanding of species-specific responses to drought, especially in eastern US where species composition is highly dynamic. An emerging approach for describing species-specific drought response is to classify the plant water use strategy into isohydric and anisohydric behaviors. Trees utilizing isohydric behavior regulate water potential by closing stomata to reduce water loss during drought conditions, while anisohydric trees allow water potential to drop by sustaining stomatal conductance, but with the risk of hydraulic failure caused by cavitation of xylem tissues. Since catastrophic cavitation occurs infrequently in the relatively wet eastern U.S., we hypothesize that 1) tree growth of isohydric trees will be more limited during the drought than the anisohydric trees due to decreased stomatal conductance, but 2) variation in intrinsic water use efficient (iWUE) during drought in isohydric trees will mediate the effects of drought on carbon assimilation. We will test these hypotheses by 1) analyzing tree-ring chronologies and dendrometer data on productivity, and 2) estimating intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) at multiple scales by analyzing gas exchange data for the leaf-level, inter-annual variability of d13C in tree stem cores for the tree-level, and eddy covariance technique for the stand-level. Our study site is the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (Indiana, USA). A 46 m flux tower has been continuously recording the carbon, water and energy fluxes, and tree diameter has been measured every 2 weeks using dendrometers, since 1998. Additional research, including gas exchange measurements performed during the

Screening of sustainable groundwater sources for integration into a regional drought-prone water supply system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Lucas

2009-07-01

Full Text Available This paper reports on the qualitative and quantitative screening of groundwater sources for integration into the public water supply system of the Algarve, Portugal. The results are employed in a decision support system currently under development for an integrated water resources management scheme in the region. Such a scheme is crucial for several reasons, including the extreme seasonal and annual variations in rainfall, the effect of climate change on more frequent and long-lasting droughts, the continuously increasing water demand and the high risk of a single-source water supply policy. The latter was revealed during the severe drought of 2004 and 2005, when surface reservoirs were depleted and the regional water demand could not be met, despite the drilling of emergency wells.

For screening and selection, quantitative criteria are based on aquifer properties and well yields, whereas qualitative criteria are defined by water quality indices. These reflect the well's degree of violation of drinking water standards for different sets of variables, including toxicity parameters, nitrate and chloride, iron and manganese and microbiological parameters. Results indicate the current availability of at least 1100 l s⁻¹ of high quality groundwater (55% of the regional demand, requiring only disinfection (900 l s⁻¹ or basic treatment, prior to human consumption. These groundwater withdrawals are sustainable when compared to mean annual recharge, considering that at least 40% is preserved for ecological demands. A more accurate and comprehensive analysis of sustainability is performed with the help of steady-state and transient groundwater flow simulations, which account for aquifer geometry, boundary conditions, recharge and discharge rates, pumping activity and seasonality. They permit an advanced analysis of present and future scenarios and show that increasing water demands and decreasing rainfall will make

Hydrological drought across the world: impact of climate and physical catchment structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. A. J. Van Lanen

2013-05-01

�ppen–Geiger climate, soil and groundwater system showed that the responsiveness of the groundwater system is as important as climate for hydrological drought development. This urges for an improvement of subsurface modules in global hydrological models to be more useful for water resources assessments. A foreseen higher spatial resolution in large-scale models would enable a better hydrogeological parameterization and thus inclusion of lateral flow.

On the propagation of drought : how climate and catchment characteristics influence hydrological drought development and recovery

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Loon, van A.F.

2013-01-01

Drought is a severe natural disaster resulting in high economic loss and huge ecological and societal impacts. In this thesis drought is defined as a period of below-normal water availability in precipitation (meteorological drought), soil moisture (soil moisture drought), or groundwater and

Teleconnected ocean forcing of Western North American droughts and pluvials during the last millennium

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Routson, Cody C.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; McKay, Nicholas P.

2016-01-01

Western North America (WNA) is rich in hydroclimate reconstructions, yet questions remain about the causes of decadal-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability. Teleconnection patterns preserved in annually-resolved tree-ring reconstructed drought maps, and anomalies in a global network of proxy sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions, were used to reassess the evidence linking ocean forcing to WNA hydroclimate variability over the past millennium. Potential forcing mechanisms of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and individual drought and pluvial events—including two multidecadal-length MCA pluvials—were evaluated. We show strong teleconnection patterns occurred during the driest (wettest) years within persistent droughts (pluvials), implicating SSTs as a potent hydroclimate forcing mechanism. The role of the SSTs on longer timescales is more complex. Pacific teleconnection patterns show little long-term change, whereas low-resolution SST reconstructions vary over decades to centuries. While weaker than the tropical Pacific teleconnections, North Atlantic teleconnection patterns and SST reconstructions also show links to WNA droughts and pluvials, and may in part account for longer-term WNA hydroclimate changes. Nonetheless, evidence linking WNA hydroclimate to SSTs still remains sparse and nuanced—especially over long-timescales with a broader range of hydroclimatic variability than characterized during the 20th century.

Enhancing Access to Drought Information Using the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System

Science.gov (United States)

Schreuders, K. A.; Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Sen Gupta, A.; Reeder, S.

2011-12-01

The National Drought Information System (NIDIS) Upper Colorado River Basin pilot study is investigating and establishing capabilities for better dissemination of drought information for early warning and management. As part of this study we are using and extending functionality from the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI) Hydrologic Information System (HIS) to provide better access to drought-related data in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The CUAHSI HIS is a federated system for sharing hydrologic data. It is comprised of multiple data servers, referred to as HydroServers, that publish data in a standard XML format called Water Markup Language (WaterML), using web services referred to as WaterOneFlow web services. HydroServers can also publish geospatial data using Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) web map, feature and coverage services and are capable of hosting web and map applications that combine geospatial datasets with observational data served via web services. HIS also includes a centralized metadata catalog that indexes data from registered HydroServers and a data access client referred to as HydroDesktop. For NIDIS, we have established a HydroServer to publish drought index values as well as the input data used in drought index calculations. Primary input data required for drought index calculation include streamflow, precipitation, reservoir storages, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture. We have developed procedures to redistribute the input data to the time and space scales chosen for drought index calculation, namely half monthly time intervals for HUC 10 subwatersheds. The spatial redistribution approaches used for each input parameter are dependent on the spatial linkages for that parameter, i.e., the redistribution procedure for streamflow is dependent on the upstream/downstream connectivity of the stream network, and the precipitation redistribution procedure is dependent on elevation to account

Prospects for Groundwater Drought Termination in the UK in 2017-18

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Parry, S.; McKenzie, A.; Prudhomme, C.; Wilby, R.; Wood, P.

2017-12-01

approach adopted in this study could complement existing operational tools which provide outlooks for groundwater levels over seasonal to annual timescales, such as the UK Hydrological Outlook. The drought termination metrics are also applicable to surface water and hydrological contexts beyond the UK.

Influence of mathematical and physical background of drought indices on their complementarity and drought recognition ability

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Frank, Anna; Armenski, Tanja; Gocic, Milan; Popov, Srdjan; Popovic, Ljiljana; Trajkovic, Slavisa

2017-09-01

The aim of this study is to test how effective and physically correct are the mathematical approaches of operational indices used by relevant National Agencies across the globe. To do so, the following indices were analysed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Standardized Precipitation - Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Effective Drought Index (EDI) and Index of Drying Efficiency of Air (IDEA). To make regions more comparable to each other and follow the spatial development of drought SPI index was advised by World Meteorological Organisation to be used widely by official meteorological services. The SPI and SPEI are used for Drought Early Warning in the USA, National Drought Mitigation Center and NASA, and in the EU by the European Drought Centre (EDC) and in the Balkan Region by National Meteorological Agencies. The EDI Index has wide application in Asia. In this paper four different issues were investigated: 1) how the mathematical method used in a drought indicator's computation influence drought indices' (DI) comparative analyses; 2) the sensitivity of the DIs on any change of the length of observational period; 3) similarities between the DIs time series; 4) and how accurate DIs are when compared to historical drought records. Results suggest that it is necessary to apply a few crucial changes in the Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems: 1) reconsider use of SPI and SPEI family indices as a measure of quality of other indices; and for Drought Early Recognition Programs 2) switch to DIs with a solid physical background, such as EDI; 3) Adopt solid physics for modelling drought processes and define the physical measure of drought, e.g. EDI and IDEA indices; 4) investigate further the IDEA index, which, supported by our study as well, is valuable for simulation of a drought process.

Effect of irrigation on needle morphology, shoot and stem growth in a drought-exposed Pinus sylvestris forest.

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Dobbertin, Matthias; Eilmann, Britta; Bleuler, Peter; Giuggiola, Arnaud; Graf Pannatier, Elisabeth; Landolt, Werner; Schleppi, Patrick; Rigling, Andreas

2010-03-01

In Valais, Switzerland, Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) are declining, mainly following drought. To assess the impact of drought on tree growth and survival, an irrigation experiment was initiated in 2003 in a mature pine forest, approximately doubling the annual precipitation. Tree crown transparency (lack of foliage) and leaf area index (LAI) were annually assessed. Seven irrigated and six control trees were felled in 2006, and needles, stem discs and branches were taken for growth analysis. Irrigation in 2004 and 2005, both with below-average precipitation, increased needle size, area and mass, stem growth and, with a 1-year delay, shoot length. This led to a relative decrease in tree crown transparency (-14%) and to an increase in stand LAI (+20%). Irrigation increased needle length by 70%, shoot length by 100% and ring width by 120%, regardless of crown transparency. Crown transparency correlated positively with mean needle size, shoot length and ring width and negatively with specific leaf area. Trees with high crown transparency (low growth, short needles) experienced similar increases in needle mass and growth with irrigation than trees with low transparency (high growth, long needles), indicating that seemingly declining trees were able to 'recover' when water supply became sufficient. A simple drought index before and during the irrigation explained most of the variation found in the parameters for both irrigated and control trees.

The need for integration of drought monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Tadesse, T.; Haile, M.; Senay, G.; Wardlow, B.D.; Knutson, C.L.

2008-01-01

Reducing the impact of drought and famine remains a challenge in sub-Saharan Africa despite ongoing drought relief assistance in recent decades. This is because drought and famine are primarily addressed through a crisis management approach when a disaster occurs, rather than stressing preparedness and risk management. Moreover, drought planning and food security efforts have been hampered by a lack of integrated drought monitoring tools, inadequate early warning systems (EWS), and insufficient information flow within and between levels of government in many sub-Saharan countries. The integration of existing drought monitoring tools for sub-Saharan Africa is essential for improving food security systems to reduce the impacts of drought and famine on society in this region. A proactive approach emphasizing integration requires the collective use of multiple tools, which can be used to detect trends in food availability and provide early indicators at local, national, and regional scales on the likely occurrence of food crises. In addition, improving the ability to monitor and disseminate critical drought-related information using available modern technologies (e.g., satellites, computers, and modern communication techniques) may help trigger timely and appropriate preventive responses and, ultimately, contribute to food security and sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. ?? 2008 United Nations.

Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fang, Yilin; Leung, Lai-Yung; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

2017-08-18

The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.

Forages and Pastures Symposium: assessing drought vulnerability of agricultural production systems in context of the 2012 drought.

Science.gov (United States)

Kellner, O; Niyogi, D

2014-07-01

Weather and climate events and agronomic enterprise are coupled via crop phenology and yield, which is temperature and precipitation dependent. Additional coupling between weather and climate and agronomic enterprise occurs through agricultural practices such as tillage, irrigation, erosion, livestock management, and forage. Thus, the relationship between precipitation, temperature, and yield is coupled to the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and drought. Unraveling the different meteorological and climatological patterns by comparing different growing seasons provides insight into how drought conditions develop and what agricultural producers can do to mitigate and adapt to drought conditions. The 2012 drought in the United States greatly impacted the agricultural sector of the economy. With comparable severity and spatial extent of the droughts of the 1930s, 1950s, and 1980s, the 2012 drought impacted much of the U.S. crop and livestock producers via decreased forage and feed. This brief summary of drought impacts to agricultural production systems includes 1) the basics of drought; 2) the meteorology and climatology involved in forecasting, predicting, and monitoring drought with attribution of the 2012 drought explored in detail; and 3) comparative analysis completed between the 2011 and 2012 growing season. This synthesis highlights the complex nature of drought in agriculture production systems as producers prepare for future climate variability.

Flooding During Drought: Learning from Stakeholder Engagement & Partner Coordination in the California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, A. M.

2017-12-01

After more than 5 years of drought, extreme precipitation brought drought relief in California and Nevada and presents an opportunity to reflect upon lessons learned while planning for the future. NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) in June 2017 convened a regional coordination workshop to provide a forum to discuss and build upon past drought efforts in the region and increase coordination, collaboration and information sharing across the region as a whole. Participants included federal, tribal, state, academic, and local partners who provided a post-mortem on the recent drought and impacts as well as recent innovations in drought monitoring, forecasts, and decision support tools in response to the historic drought. This presentation will highlight lessons learned from stakeholder outreach and engagement around flooding during drought, and pathways for moving forward coordination and collaboration in the region. Additional focus will be on the potential opportunities from examining California decision making calendars from this drought. Identified gaps and challenges will also be shared, such as the need to connect observations with social impacts, capacity building around available tools and resources, and future drought monitoring needs. Drought will continue to impact California and Nevada, and the CA-NV DEWS works to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.

Climate and drought

Science.gov (United States)

McNab, Alan L.

Drought is a complex phenomenon that can be defined from several perspectives [Wilhite and Glantz, 1987]. The common characteristic and central idea of these perspectives is the straightforward notion of a water deficit. Complexity arises because of the need to specify the part of the hydrologic cycle experiencing the deficit and the associated time period. For example, a long-term deficit in deep groundwater storage can occur simultaneously with a short-term surplus of root zone soil water.Figure 1 [Changnon, 1987] illustrates how the definitions of drought are related to specific components of the hydrologic cycle. The dashed lines indicate the delayed translation of two hypothetical precipitation deficits with respect to runoff, soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater. From this perspective, precipitation can be considered as the carrier of the drought signal, and hydrological processes are among the final indicators that reveal the presence of drought [Hare, 1987; Klemes, 1987].

Groundwater Drought and Recovery: a Case Study from the United Kingdom

Science.gov (United States)

Peach, D.; McKenzie, A. A.; Bloomfield, J.

2012-12-01

An understanding of the processes leading to the onset, duration and end of hydrological droughts is necessary to help improve the management of stressed or scarce water resources during such periods. In particular, the role and use of groundwater during episodes of drought is crucially important, since groundwater can provide relatively resilient water supplies during early stages of drought but maybe highly susceptible to relatively persistent or sustained droughts. Nevertheless, groundwater is seldom considered in drought analyses, and compared with other types of hydrological drought there have been few studies to date. The few previous studies of groundwater droughts at catchment- and regional-scale have shown that catchment and aquifer characteristics exert a strong influence on the spatio-temporal development of groundwater droughts as water deficit propagates through the terrestrial water cycle. In this context, the relationships between hydrogeological heterogeneity, catchment engineering infrastructure (storage), and decisions related to water resource management during drought events all shape the evolution and consequences of groundwater droughts. Here we examine the evolution of a recent regionally significant two-year drought across the United Kingdom (UK) and use it to investigate these relationships. We identify the drivers, characterise the development and spatio-temporal extent of the groundwater drought. In particular, we focus on the unusually rapid end and recovery from drought during what would normally be a period of groundwater recession. The UK, and in particular southern England, relies extensively on groundwater for public water supply, agricultural and industrial use, as well as for sustaining river flows that are essential to ecosystem health. In normal years relatively consistent rainfall patterns prevail, recharging aquifers over winter when evapotranspiration is minimal. However, by March 2012 large parts of the southern UK had

Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment (DroughtPEX_China)

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yaohui

2017-04-01

Drought is one of the most common and frequent nature disasters in the world, particularly in China under the continental monsoonal climate with great variation. About thirty percent of economic loss caused by natural disasters is contributed by droughts in China, which is by far the most damaging weather disasters because of its long duration and extensive hazard areas. Droughts not only have a serious impact on the agriculture, water resources, ecology, natural environment, but also seriously affect the socio-economic such as human health, energy and transportation. Worsely, under the background of climate change, droughts in show increases in frequency, duration and scope in many places around the world, particularly northern China. Nowadays, droughts have aroused extensive concern of the scientists, governments and international community, and became one of the important scientific issues in geoscience research. However, most of researches on droughts in China so far were focused on the causes or regulars of one type of droughts (the atmosphere, agriculture or hydrological) from the perspective of the atmospheric circulation anomalies. Few of them considered a whole cycle of the drought-forming process from atmosphere-land interaction to agricultural/ecological one in terms of the land-atmosphere interaction; meanwhile, the feedback mechanism with the drought and land-atmosphere interaction is still unclear as well. All of them is because of lack of the relevant comprehensive observation experiment. "Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment" (DroughtPEX_China)is just launched in this requirement and background. DroughtPEX_China is supported by Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Industry (Meteorological) of China (Grant No.GYHY201506001)—"Drought Meteorology Scientific Research Project—the disaster-causing process and mechanism of drought in northern China". This project

Drought during canopy development has lasting effect on annual carbon balance in a deciduous temperate forest

Science.gov (United States)

Asko Noormets; Steve G. McNulty; Jared L. DeForest; Ge Sun; Qinglin Li; Jiquan Chen

2008-01-01

Climate change projections predict an intensifying hydrologic cycle and an increasing frequency of droughts, yet quantitative understanding of the effects on ecosystem carbon exchange remains limitedHere, the effect of contrasting precipitation and soil moisture dynamics were evaluated on forest carbon exchange using 2 yr of...

The importance of drought-pathogen interactions in driving oak mortality events in the Ozark Border Region

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Jeffrey D.; Knapp, Benjamin O.; Muzika, Rose-Marie; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Gu, Lianhong

2018-01-01

Forests are expected to become more vulnerable to drought-induced tree mortality owing to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns that amplify drought lethality. There is a crucial knowledge gap regarding drought-pathogen interactions and their effects on tree mortality. The objectives of this research were to examine whether stand dynamics and ‘background’ mortality rates were affected by a severe drought in 2012; and to evaluate the importance of drought-pathogen interactions within the context of a mortality event that killed 10.0% and 26.5% of white (Quercus alba L.) and black (Q. velutina Lam.) oak stems, respectively, in a single year. We synthesized (i) forest inventory data (24 years), (ii) 11 years of ecosystem flux data with supporting biological data including predawn leaf water potential and annual forest inventories, (iii) tree-ring analyses of individual white oaks that were alive and ones that died in 2013, and (iv) documentation of a pathogen infection. This forest displayed stand dynamics consistent with expected patterns of decreasing tree density and increasing basal area. Continued basal area growth outpaced mortality implying a net accumulation of live biomass, which was supported by eddy covariance ecosystem carbon flux observations. Individual white and black oaks that died in 2013 displayed historically lower growth with the majority of dead trees exhibiting Biscogniauxia cankers. Our observations point to the importance of event-based oak mortality and that drought-Biscogniauxia interactions are important in shaping oak stand dynamics in this region. Although forest function has not been significantly impaired, these drought-pathogen interactions could amplify mortality under future climate conditions and thus warrant further investigation.

Experimental evidence and modelling of drought induced alternative stable soil moisture states

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, David; Jones, Scott; Lebron, Inma; Reinsch, Sabine; Dominguez, Maria; Smith, Andrew; Marshal, Miles; Emmett, Bridget

2017-04-01

The theory of alternative stable states in ecosystems is well established in ecology; however, evidence from manipulation experiments supporting the theory is limited. Developing the evidence base is important because it has profound implications for ecosystem management. Here we show evidence of the existence of alternative stable soil moisture states induced by drought in an upland wet heath. We used a long-term (15 yrs) climate change manipulation experiment with moderate sustained drought, which reduced the ability of the soil to retain soil moisture by degrading the soil structure, reducing moisture retention. Moreover, natural intense droughts superimposed themselves on the experiment, causing an unexpected additional alternative soil moisture state to develop, both for the drought manipulation and control plots; this impaired the soil from rewetting in winter. Our results show the coexistence of three stable states. Using modelling with the Hydrus 1D software package we are able to show the circumstances under which shifts in soil moisture states are likely to occur. Given the new understanding it presents a challenge of how to incorporate feedbacks, particularly related to soil structure, into soil flow and transport models?

A Comparison of Satellite Data-Based Drought Indicators in Detecting the 2012 Drought in the Southeastern US

Science.gov (United States)

Yagci, Ali Levent; Santanello, Joseph A.; Rodell, Matthew; Deng, Meixia; Di, Liping

2018-01-01

The drought of 2012 in the North America devastated agricultural crops and pastures, further damaging agriculture and livestock industries and leading to great losses in the economy. The drought maps of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and various drought monitoring techniques based on the data collected by the satellites orbiting in space such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are inter-compared during the 2012 drought conditions in the southeastern United States. The results indicated that spatial extent of drought reported by USDM were in general agreement with those reported by the MODIS-based drought maps. GRACE-based drought maps suggested that the southeastern US experienced widespread decline in surface and root-zone soil moisture and groundwater resources. Disagreements among all drought indicators were observed over irrigated areas, especially in Lower Mississippi region where agriculture is mainly irrigated. Besides, we demonstrated that time lag of vegetation response to changes in soil moisture and groundwater partly contributed to these disagreements, as well.

Forest Growth Responses to Drought at Short- and Long-Term Scales in Spain: Squeezing the Stress Memory from Tree Rings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Julio Camarero

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Drought-triggered declines in forest productivity and associated die-off events have increased considerably due to climate warming in the last decades. There is an increasing interest in quantifying the resilience capacity of forests against climate warming and drought to uncover how different stands and tree species will resist and recover after more frequent and intense droughts. Trees form annual growth rings that represent an accurate record of how forest growth responded to past droughts. Here we use dendrochronology to quantify the radial growth of different forests subjected to contrasting climatic conditions in Spain during the last half century. Particularly, we considered four climatically contrasting areas where dominant forests showed clear signs of drought-induced dieback. Studied forests included wet sites dominated by silver fir (Abies alba in the Pyrenees and beech (Fagus sylvatica stands in northern Spain, and drought-prone sites dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris in eastern Spain and black pine (Pinus nigra in the semi-arid south-eastern Spain. We quantified the growth reduction caused by different droughts and assessed the short-and long-term resilience capacity of declining vs. non-declining trees in each forest. In all cases, drought induced a marked growth reduction regardless tree vigor. However, the capacity to recover after drought (resilience at short- and long-term scales varied greatly between declining and non-declining individuals. In the case of beech and silver fir, non-declining individuals presented greater growth rates and capacity to recover after drought than declining individuals. For Scots pine, the resilience to drought was found to be lower in recent years regardless the tree vigor, but the growth reduction caused by successive droughts was more pronounced in declining than in non-declining individuals. In the black pine forest an extreme drought induced a marked growth reduction in declining

Relationship between drought intensity and crop production in Serbia and Montenegro

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dragovic, Svetimir; Maksimovic, Livija

2004-01-01

Serbia and Montenegro is divided into three parts - the Mediterranean part, the mountainous part and the lowlands. Each part features distinctive local climatic conditions. The lowlands in the northern, eastern and central parts of the country, in which agricultural production is concentrated, have changeable, unstable and unforeseeable rainfall and dry periods between July and September. The northern part of the country (the Vojvodina Province) has a moderately continental climate with warm summers, cold and dry winters and the unevenly distributed precipitation, with frequent occurrences of drought. The analysis of drought has been made on the basis of precipitation data collected in Novi Sad, which represents the northern part, and Zajecar, which represents the eastern part of the country. Precipitation sums by hydrological years (October - September) vary largely, from 322 to 867 mm. The variations during growing season are also significant, from 172 to 487 mm. The precipitation during growing season is important for water provision to plants. The average precipitation sum for the Vojvodina Province (Novi Sad), for the hydrological years in an 81-year period (1923-2002) is 605 mm, 341 mm in the vegetation period and 264 mm in the winter period. In the eastern part (Zajecar), the annual average is 592 mm (from 416 to 704 mm) and the average for growing season is 326 mm (from 170 to 478 mm). In Serbia and Montenegro, droughts are frequent in the northern, eastern, and central parts of the country and they usually hit large areas of land. Droughts are characterized by fairly long spells with no precipitation, high air temperatures, hot and dry winds, increased plant water requirements, and soil moisture levels below the wilting point. Ail these phenomena affect plant growth and development and considerably reduce yields of most crop species. In some years and some regions of the country, drought reaches catastrophic proportions for agricultural production. The

Fostering drought research and science-policy interfacing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lanen, van Henny A.J.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis; Stahl, Kerstin; Wolters, Wouter; Andreu, Joaquin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Stefano, De Lucia; Seidl, Irmi; Rego, Francisco Castro; Massarutto, Antonio; Garnier, Emmanuel

2015-01-01

The DROUGHT-R&SPI project adopted a transdisciplinary approach that combined drought analyses for six selected Case Studies across Europe with drought analyses at the pan-European scale both for past and future climates. Achievements on drought as natural hazard, drought impacts, responses

Comparing growth phenology of co-occurring deciduous and evergreen conifers exposed to drought

OpenAIRE

Swidrak, Irene; Schuster, Roman; Oberhuber, Walter

2013-01-01

Plant phenological events are influenced by climate factors such as temperature and rainfall. To evaluate phenological responses to water availability in a Spring Heath-Pine wood (Erico-Pinetum typicum), the focus of this study was to determine intra-annual dynamics of apical and lateral growth of co-occurring early successional Larix decidua and Pinus sylvestris and late successional Picea abies exposed to drought. The effect of reduced plant water availability on growth phenology was invest...

Pathways Into and Out of the 2012-2016 California-Nevada Drought—Lessons for Future Drought and Drought Termination

Science.gov (United States)

Dettinger, M. D.

2017-12-01

Droughts in California have historically been a function of prolonged deficits of precipitation from the largest storms (much more so than from medium to weak storms), and drought endings typically reflect the return of those same large storms and more. The recent 2012-2016 drought in California followed this pattern, being bracketed by the extremely wet 2011 and 2017 water years, both brought about by the arrival of multiple major atmospheric river storms, and was marked by one of the episodic multi-year periods when these storms are diverted from the State by anomalous atmospheric circulations over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The 2012-2016 episode was also marked by conditions that have been much less "normal" for California droughts, with record warm temperatures adding significantly to the drought and its impacts. Except in the highest mountains, these temperatures contributed as much to the drought potential as did precipitation deficits. The temperatures also led to record snow droughts that focused most in the low to middle altitude snowfields. Together the persistent precipitation deficits and high temperatures of this drought are a prescient example of a major drought with precipitation deficits emphasized at higher altitudes and temperature effects at lower altitudes. This drought ended with the remarkably wet 2017 water year, due to the arrival of a record number of large atmospheric river storms and associated precipitation. But this termination of precipitation drought was marked by its own flirtation with record-breaking "warm" snow drought conditions in late 2016 as well as by an eventual springtime snowpack that was very large but nowhere near as large as in other historical years with correspondingly large precipitation totals, especially at low to middle altitudes. These patterns of temperature-accentuated drought emphasized at lower altitudes and precipitation-driven droughts and drought endings emphasized at higher altitudes, both delineated

Assessing Agricultural Drought Vulnerability by a VSD Model: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiansheng Wu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Drought vulnerability of agriculture is significant to economic development and sustainable food production. In this paper, we proposed a framework to evaluate the regional agricultural-eco environment in the face of drought caused by climate change. Based on a vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD model, we built up a comprehensive system to evaluate the agricultural drought vulnerability of Yunnan Province in China. The model highlights the human-land relationship by considering both natural conditions and human activities. Twelve indicators were generated to construct three components of the model: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. During the construction of the VSD model, the entropy and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP comprehensive analysis method were adopted to generate the weights and to compute the composite index for each section. Furthermore, the factor analysis method was used to determine the dominant factors of different cities and the main indicators driving the system. The results indicated a spatial pattern that the vulnerability value was high on the eastern and western sides, but low in the middle of Yunnan Province. Most of the vulnerable regions were concentrated in remote areas. Indicators such as population density, irrigation level, annual average precipitation, cultivation land ratio, and difficulty of water supply were the main driving factors. This means that there is a deep connection between agricultural drought vulnerability and urbanization. The evaluation system developed during this research will provide guidance for drought mitigation in regions of complex terrain.

Examining the extreme 2017 spring drought event in South Korea using a suite of drought indices (SPI, SC-PDSI, SPEI, EDI)

Science.gov (United States)

Nam, W. H.; Hayes, M. J.; Svoboda, M. D.; Fuchs, B.; Tadesse, T.; Wilhite, D. A.; Hong, E. M.; Kim, T.

2017-12-01

South Korea has experienced extreme droughts in 1994-1995, 2000-2001, 2012, 2015, and 2016-2017. The 2017 spring drought (with especially low winter precipitation recorded in winter 2016) affected a large portion of central and western South Korea, and was one of the most severe droughts in the region since the 2000-2001 drought. The spring drought of 2017 was characterized by exceptionally low precipitation with total precipitation from January to June being 50% lower than the mean normal precipitation record (1981-2010) over most of western South Korea. It was the climatologically driest spring over the 1961-2016 record period. Effective drought monitoring and management depends on which drought indices are selected because each drought index has different drought criteria or levels of drought severity, associated with drought responses. In this study, for the quantitative analysis of the spring 2017 drought event in South Korea, four widely-used drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI), and the Effective Drought Index (EDI) are compared with observed drought damaged areas in the context of agricultural drought impacts. The South Korean government (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) and Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC)) has been operating a government-level drought monitoring system since 2016. Results from this study can be used to improve the drought monitoring applications, as well as drought planning and preparedness in South Korea.

Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System

Science.gov (United States)

Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.

2011-12-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process

Key mechanisms of metabolic changes in mountain pine and larch under drought in the Swiss National Park

Science.gov (United States)

Churakova, Olga; Bigler, Christof; Bryukhanova, Marina; Siegwolf, Rolf

2014-05-01

Forests are of great ecological, economic and social importance worldwide. In many regions they have been recently affected by water deficits during summer droughts due to increasing temperatures and shortage of precipitation (Allen et al. 2010). Climate models predict that drought frequency will continue to increase during the 21st century and beyond (CH 2011). Since the foundation of the Swiss National Park (SNP) in 1914 these forests have not been managed any more, which allows to study natural processes in these forest ecosystems. Since the 1990s, annual and spring temperatures increased in the SNP up to 0.5 ºC and 1.02 ºC, respectively, and average summer temperature increased up to 0.6 ºC. Annual precipitation decreased by 81 mm compared to the mean values (927 mm) from 1917 to 1989. Therefore, detailed studies of drought effects on the physiological functioning of trees over the last decades are needed. Recently, mortality processes of mountain pines were observed in the Swiss National Park (Bigler, Rigling 2013). It is of great interest to investigate and compare the physiological responses of mountain pine and larch to drought and to understand the mechanisms behind the mortality processes. The goal of our study is to investigate the key mechanisms of tree physiological responses to drought in the SNP using state-of-the-art methods of classical dendrochronology, tree physiology, stable isotope, and compound-specific isotope analyses. Long-term responses of mountain pine and larch trees from north- and south-facing sites to drought will be inferred from tree-ring width data. Based on climatic data a drought index will be calculated and reconstructed back in time. New chronologies for stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios derived from both pine and larch tree-ring cellulose will provide retrospective insight into the long-term whole-plant physiological control of gas exchange derived from estimates of stomatal conductance, photosynthetic rate and

Assessing the utility of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought based on soil moisture in Chongqing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hui; Wu, Wei; Liu, Hong-Bin

2018-04-01

Numerous drought indices have been developed to analyze and monitor drought condition, but they are region specific and limited by various climatic conditions. In southwest China, summer drought mainly occurs from June to September, causing destructive and profound impact on agriculture, society, and ecosystems. The current study assesses the availability of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought in this area at 5-day scale. The drought indices include the relative moisture index ( M), the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the composite index of meteorological drought (CIspi), and the improved composite index of meteorological drought (CIwap). Long-term daily precipitation and temperature from 1970 to 2014 are used to calculate 30-day M ( M 30), SPI (SPI30), SPEI (SPEI30), 90-day SPEI (SPEI90), CIspi, and CIwap. The 5-day soil moisture observations from 2010 to 2013 are applied to assess the performance of these drought indices. Correlation analysis, overall accuracy, and kappa coefficient are utilized to investigate the relationships between soil moisture and drought indices. Correlation analysis indicates that soil moisture is well correlated with CIwap, SPEI30, M 30, SPI30, and CIspi except SPEI90. Moreover, drought classifications identified by M 30 are in agreement with that of the observed soil moisture. The results show that M 30 based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration is an appropriate indicator for monitoring drought condition at a finer scale in the study area. According to M 30, summer drought during 1970-2014 happened in each year and showed a slightly upward tendency in recent years.

Woodland recovery following drought-induced tree mortality across an environmental stress gradient.

Science.gov (United States)

Redmond, Miranda D; Cobb, Neil S; Clifford, Michael J; Barger, Nichole N

2015-10-01

Recent droughts and increasing temperatures have resulted in extensive tree mortality across the globe. Understanding the environmental controls on tree regeneration following these drought events will allow for better predictions of how these ecosystems may shift under a warmer, drier climate. Within the widely distributed piñon-juniper woodlands of the southwestern USA, a multiyear drought in 2002-2004 resulted in extensive adult piñon mortality and shifted adult woodland composition to a juniper-dominated, more savannah-type ecosystem. Here, we used pre- (1998-2001) and 10-year post- (2014) drought stand structure data of individually mapped trees at 42 sites to assess the effects of this drought on tree regeneration across a gradient of environmental stress. We found declines in piñon juvenile densities since the multiyear drought due to limited new recruitment and high (>50%) juvenile mortality. This is in contrast to juniper juvenile densities, which increased over this time period. Across the landscape, piñon recruitment was positively associated with live adult piñon densities and soil available water capacity, likely due to their respective effects on seed and water availability. Juvenile piñon survival was strongly facilitated by certain types of nurse trees and shrubs. These nurse plants also moderated the effects of environmental stress on piñon survival: Survival of interspace piñon juveniles was positively associated with soil available water capacity, whereas survival of nursed piñon juveniles was negatively associated with perennial grass cover. Thus, nurse plants had a greater facilitative effect on survival at sites with higher soil available water capacity and perennial grass cover. Notably, mean annual climatic water deficit and elevation were not associated with piñon recruitment or survival across the landscape. Our findings reveal a clear shift in successional trajectories toward a more juniper-dominated woodland and highlight the

Water Management for Competing Uses: Environmental Flows in the Transboundary Rio Grande/Rio Bravo

Science.gov (United States)

Sandoval Solis, S.; McKinney, D. C.

2011-12-01

connectivity between the side-banks, and (3) small floods aimed to re-widen the channel and connect the river longitudinally. The maximum annual flow for the big bend region is 941 Million m3/year. Median flows and small floods are delivered from Luis L Leon reservoir; high flows are supplied by the rest of the rivers. The proposed policy effectively met the physical and legal constraints, while reducing the flooding and drought risk in Presidio/Ojinaga.

USING VARIOUS VISUALIZATION TECHNIQUES TO OUTLINE VULNERABILITY TO DROUGHT IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CONSTANṬA BORONEANṬ

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Using visualization techniques to outline vulnerability to drought in the Republic of Moldova. This paper is a demonstration of use of various visualization techniques in representing the results on vulnerability to drought at various times scales in the Republic of Moldova. Monthly precipitation totals from simulated data at 10 km horizontal resolution with a regional climatic model RegCM, CRU TS2.10 land observation data set at 0.5ºx0.5º horizontal resolution and observations recorded at 15 meteorological stations in Moldova were used to compare the annual cycle of precipitation, seasonal variability of precipitation, and the spatial and temporal evolution of drought. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF analysis was used to identify the principal modes of seasonal variability of precipitation over the country and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI was calculated as an indicator of drought or wetness at various time scales (1 to 24 months. The period of analysis was 1960-1997. One of the visualization techniques was the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS which is an easy manipulation and visualization tool for gridded and station meteorological data. We used it to represent the RegCM and CRU data on their grids. The kriging interpolation with a Gaussian model variance was selected as a suitable interpolation tool for the spatial distribution of the SPI and EOF over Moldova. For temporal diagram and mapping, Golden Software Surfer 9.0 and ArcGis Software 9.1 were used. The results presented with these visualization tools emphasize precipitation and drought characteristics over Moldova domain.

Adaptability to climate change in forestry species: drought effects on growth and wood anatomy of ponderosa pines growing at different competition levels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fernandez, M. E.; Gyenge, J. E.; Urquiza, M. M.; Varela, S.

2012-11-01

More stressful conditions are expected due to climatic change in several regions, including Patagonia, South-America. In this region, there are no studies about the impact of severe drought events on growth and wood characteristics of the most planted forestry species, Pinus ponderosa (Doug. ex-Laws). The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of a severe drought event on annual stem growth and functional wood anatomy of pines growing at different plantation densities aiming to understand how management practices can help to increase their adaptability to climate change. Growth magnitude and period, specific hydraulic conductivity, and anatomical traits (early- and late wood proportion, lumen diameter, cell-wall thickness, tracheid length and bordered pit dimensions) were measured in the ring 2008-2009, which was formed during drought conditions. This drought event decreased annual stem growth by 30-38% and 58-65% respect to previous mean growth, in open vs. closed stand trees, respectively, indicating a higher sensitivity of the latter, which is opposite to reports from the same species growing in managed native forests in USA. Some wood anatomical variables did differ in more water stressed trees (lower cell wall thickness of early wood cells and higher proportion of small-lumen cells in late wood), which in turn did not affect wood function (hydraulic conductivity and resistance to implosion). Other anatomical variables (tracheid length, pit dimensions, early- and late wood proportion, lumen diameter of early wood cells) did not differ between tree sizes and plantation density. The results suggest that severe drought affects differentially the amount but not the function and quality of formed wood in ponderosa pine growing at different competition levels. (Author) 41 refs.

Economics and societal considerations of drought

Science.gov (United States)

Jeff Prestemon; Linda Kruger; Karen L. Abt; Michael Bowker; Consuelo Brandeis; Dave Calkin; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Charlotte Ham; Thomas P. Holmes; Jeffrey Kline; Travis Warziniack

2016-01-01

The economic and social effects of drought are diverse and related to physical characteristics of drought, including spatial extent, severity, duration, and frequency that combine to determine drought’s overall effects on society. Most of the attention given to economic and social impacts of drought focuses on adverse consequences, but technology, public...

Energy droughts in a 100% renewable electricity mix

Science.gov (United States)

Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoît; François, Baptiste; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2017-04-01

During the 21st conference of parties, 175 countries agreed on limiting the temperature increase due to global warming to 2°C above preindustrial levels. Such an ambitious goal necessitates a deep transformation of our society in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Europe has started its energy transition years ago by, for instance, increasing the share of renewables in the European electricity generation and should continue in this direction. Variable renewable energies (VRE) and especially those driven by weather conditions (namely wind, solar and hydro power from river flow), are expected to play a key role in achieving the GHG reduction target. However, these renewables are often criticized for their intermittency and for the resulting difficult integration in the power supply system, especially for large shares of VRE in the energy mix. Assessing the feasibility of electricity generation using large contributions of VRE requires a deep understanding and characterization of the VRE spatiotemporal variations. In the last decade, many studies have focused on the short-term intermittency of VRE generation, but the persistency and the characteristics of periods of low/high electricity generation have been rarely studied. Yet, these particular situations require some demanding adaptations of the power supply system in term of back-up sources or production curtailment respectively. This study focuses on what we call "energy droughts" which, by analogy with hydrological or meteorological droughts, are defined as periods of very low energy production. We consider in turn "energy droughts" associated to wind, solar and hydro power (run-of-the-river). Their characteristics are estimated for 12 European regions being subjected to different climatic regimes. For each region and energy source, "droughts" are evaluated from a 30-yr time series of power generation (1983-2012). These series are simulated by using a suite of weather-to-energy conversion models with

Drought and groundwater management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amundsen, Eirik S; Jensen, Frank

This paper considers the problem of a water management authority faced with the threat of a drought that hits at an uncertain date. Three management policies are investigated: i) a laissez-faire (open-access) policy of automatic adjustment through a zero marginal private net benefit condition, ii......-drought steady-state equilibrium stock size of water under policy iii) is smaller than under policy ii) and, hence, a precautionary stock size should not be built up prior to the drought....

Introduction 'Governance for Drought Resilience'

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bressers, Nanny; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Larrue, Corinne; Bressers, Hans; Bressers, Nanny; Larrue, Corinne

2016-01-01

This book is about governance for drought resilience. But that simple sentence alone might rouse several questions. Because what do we mean with drought, and how does that relate to water scarcity? And what do we mean with resilience, and why is resilience needed for tackling drought? And how does

Climate conditions and drought assessment with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in Iran: evaluation of CORDEX South Asia climate projections (2070-2099)

Science.gov (United States)

Senatore, Alfonso; Hejabi, Somayeh; Mendicino, Giuseppe; Bazrafshan, Javad; Irannejad, Parviz

2018-03-01

Climate change projections were evaluated over both the whole Iran and six zones having different precipitation regimes considering the CORDEX South Asia dataset, for assessing space-time distribution of drought occurrences in the future period 2070-2099 under RCP4.5 scenario. Initially, the performances of eight available CORDEX South Asia Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were assessed for the baseline period 1970-2005 through the GPCC v.7 precipitation dataset and the CFSR temperature dataset, which were previously selected as the most reliable within a set of five global datasets compared to 41 available synoptic stations. Though the CCLM RCM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR General Circulation Model is in general the most suitable for temperature and, together with the REMO 2009 RCM also driven by MPI-ESM-LR, for precipitation, their performances do not overwhelm other models for every season and zone in which Iranian territory was divided according to a principal component analysis approach. Hence, a weighting approach was tested and adopted to take into account useful information from every RCM in each of the six zones. The models resulting more reliable compared to current climate show a strong precipitation decrease. Weighted average predicts an overall yearly precipitation decrease of about 20%. Temperature projections provide a mean annual increase of 2.4 °C. Future drought scenarios were depicted by means of the self-calibrating version of the Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) model. Weighted average predicts a sharp drying that can be configured as a real shift in mean climate conditions, drastically affecting water resources of the country.

Coupling a global climatic model with insurance impact models for flood and drought: an estimation of the financial impact of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tinard Pierre

2016-01-01

Full Text Available CCR, a French reinsurance company mostly involved in natural disasters coverage in France, has been developing tools for the estimation of its exposure to climatic risks for many years. Both a flood and a drought models were developed and calibrated on a large policies and claims database supplied every year with insurers’ data. More recently, CCR has been developing a stochastic approach in order to evaluate its financial exposure to extreme events. A large and realistic event set has been generated by applying extreme value statistic tools to simulate hazard and to estimate, using our impact models, the average annual losses and losses related to different return periods. These event sets have been simulated separately for flood and drought, with a hypothesis of independence, consistent with recent annual damage data. The newest development presented here consists in the use of the ARPEGE–Climat model performed by Météo-France to simulate two 200-years sets of hourly atmospheric time series reflecting both the current climate and the RCP 4.5 climate conditions circa year 2050. These climatic data constitute the input data for the flood and drought impact models to detect events and simulate the associated hazard and damages. Our two main goals are (1 to simulate simultaneously flood and drought events for the same simulated years and (2 to evaluate the financial impact of climate change.

The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong

2015-01-01

Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

Assessment of Drought Severity Techniques - A Historical Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Panu, U. S.; Crinklaw, T.

2011-12-01

Droughts are natural phenomenon experienced by all nations across the globe. Drought inherently means a scarcity of water, which adversely affects various sectors of human socio-economic spectrum, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation, water supply, industry, recreation, navigation, fish production etc. The prime cause of droughts is the occurrence of less than optimal (below normal) precipitation, which has its origin to various natural reasons, the most important being the global climatic forcing. Droughts are also referred to as sustained and regionally extensive occurrences of below average water availability which invariably cultivate into environmental disasters. The evolution of a drought event is defined into four types; meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Drought affects all aspects of societal systems irrespective of how it is defined. This has led to a wide range of studies conducted by meteorologists, ecologists, environmentalists, hydrologists, geologists and agricultural scientists in attempts to understand drought processes as required to analyze and predict the impacts of droughts. A conceptual definition, such as a shortage of water relied on by human activity, avoids quantification of a drought event. On the other hand, the purpose of an operational definition is to determine the beginning, termination, and severity of a drought event. The severity assessment of droughts is of primary importance for allocation and management of available water resources. The progression and impact of historical droughts in a region is helpful for developing relationships and techniques to investigate relevant characteristics of droughts. For optimum drought preparedness and mitigative responses, professional bodies need to provide information to private and government agencies in a manner that may also be understood by their employers, stakeholders and the general public. Drought indicators bridge this communication gap between all

Drought tolerance in potato (S. tuberosum L.): Can we learn from drought tolerance research in cereals?

Science.gov (United States)

Monneveux, Philippe; Ramírez, David A; Pino, María-Teresa

2013-05-01

Drought tolerance is a complex trait of increasing importance in potato. Our knowledge is summarized concerning drought tolerance and water use efficiency in this crop. We describe the effects of water restriction on physiological characteristics, examine the main traits involved, report the attempts to improve drought tolerance through in vitro screening and marker assisted selection, list the main genes involved and analyze the potential interest of native and wild potatoes to improve drought tolerance. Drought tolerance has received more attention in cereals than in potato. The review compares these crops for indirect selection methods available for assessment of drought tolerance related traits, use of genetic resources, progress in genomics, application of water saving techniques and availability of models to anticipate the effects of climate change on yield. It is concluded that drought tolerance improvement in potato could greatly benefit from the transfer of research achievements in cereals. Several promising research directions are presented, such as the use of fluorescence, reflectance, color and thermal imaging and stable isotope techniques to assess drought tolerance related traits, the application of the partial root-zone drying technique to improve efficiency of water supply and the exploitation of stressful memory to enhance hardiness. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drought as a natural disaster

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maybank, J. [Agvironics Consulting, SK (Canada); Bonsal, B. [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Geography; Jones, K. [Environment Canada, Downsview, ON (Canada). Canadian Climate Centre; Lawford, R. [Canadian Climate Centre, Saskatoon, SK (Canada). National Hydrology Research Centre; O`Brien, E.G. [Agriculture Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Energy Analysis and Policy Div.; Ripley, E.A. [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Soil Science; Wheaton, E. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)

1995-12-31

A discussion of droughts as a major natural disaster in dry areas such as the Canadian Prairies where precipitation patterns are seasonal, was presented. Environmental damages include soil degradation and erosion, vegetation damage, slough and lake deterioration and wildlife loss. The development and application of specific soil moisture and drought indices based on cumulative precipitation deficits have enhanced drought monitoring programs. The identification of precursor conditions raises the possibility that the likelihood of a drought occurring in a particular year or growing season might be predictable. The ability to forecast seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies is potentially feasible using a suitable merging of precursor parameters and modelling methodologies. Research activity to identify and evaluate new mitigative measure should be increased to keep pace with the prospects of drought predictability. 90 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

Drought priming at vegetative growth stage enhances nitrogen-use efficiency under post-anthesis drought and heat stress in wheat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, S.; Li, Xiangnan; Larsen, Dorthe Horn

2017-01-01

reached ca. −0.9 MPa) at the 5th-leaf stage for 11 days, and leaf water relations and gas exchange rates, grain yield and yield components, and agronomic nitrogen-use efficiency (ANUE) of the primed and non-primed plants under post-anthesis drought and heat stress were investigated. Compared with the non......To study the effects of early drought priming at 5th-leaf stage on grain yield and nitrogen-use efficiency in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under post-anthesis drought and heat stress, wheat plants were first exposed to moderate drought stress (drought priming; that is, the leaf water potential......-primed plants, the drought-primed plants possessed higher leaf water potential and chlorophyll content, and consequently a higher photosynthetic rate during post-anthesis drought and heat stress. Drought priming also resulted in higher grain yield and ANUE in wheat under post-anthesis drought and heat stress...

Drought Tolerance in Modern and Wild Wheat

Science.gov (United States)

Budak, Hikmet; Kantar, Melda; Yucebilgili Kurtoglu, Kuaybe

2013-01-01

The genus Triticum includes bread (Triticum aestivum) and durum wheat (Triticum durum) and constitutes a major source for human food consumption. Drought is currently the leading threat on world's food supply, limiting crop yield, and is complicated since drought tolerance is a quantitative trait with a complex phenotype affected by the plant's developmental stage. Drought tolerance is crucial to stabilize and increase food production since domestication has limited the genetic diversity of crops including wild wheat, leading to cultivated species, adapted to artificial environments, and lost tolerance to drought stress. Improvement for drought tolerance can be achieved by the introduction of drought-grelated genes and QTLs to modern wheat cultivars. Therefore, identification of candidate molecules or loci involved in drought tolerance is necessary, which is undertaken by “omics” studies and QTL mapping. In this sense, wild counterparts of modern varieties, specifically wild emmer wheat (T. dicoccoides), which are highly tolerant to drought, hold a great potential. Prior to their introgression to modern wheat cultivars, drought related candidate genes are first characterized at the molecular level, and their function is confirmed via transgenic studies. After integration of the tolerance loci, specific environment targeted field trials are performed coupled with extensive analysis of morphological and physiological characteristics of developed cultivars, to assess their performance under drought conditions and their possible contributions to yield in certain regions. This paper focuses on recent advances on drought related gene/QTL identification, studies on drought related molecular pathways, and current efforts on improvement of wheat cultivars for drought tolerance. PMID:23766697

Drought Tolerance in Modern and Wild Wheat

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hikmet Budak

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The genus Triticum includes bread (Triticum aestivum and durum wheat (Triticum durum and constitutes a major source for human food consumption. Drought is currently the leading threat on world's food supply, limiting crop yield, and is complicated since drought tolerance is a quantitative trait with a complex phenotype affected by the plant's developmental stage. Drought tolerance is crucial to stabilize and increase food production since domestication has limited the genetic diversity of crops including wild wheat, leading to cultivated species, adapted to artificial environments, and lost tolerance to drought stress. Improvement for drought tolerance can be achieved by the introduction of drought-grelated genes and QTLs to modern wheat cultivars. Therefore, identification of candidate molecules or loci involved in drought tolerance is necessary, which is undertaken by “omics” studies and QTL mapping. In this sense, wild counterparts of modern varieties, specifically wild emmer wheat (T. dicoccoides, which are highly tolerant to drought, hold a great potential. Prior to their introgression to modern wheat cultivars, drought related candidate genes are first characterized at the molecular level, and their function is confirmed via transgenic studies. After integration of the tolerance loci, specific environment targeted field trials are performed coupled with extensive analysis of morphological and physiological characteristics of developed cultivars, to assess their performance under drought conditions and their possible contributions to yield in certain regions. This paper focuses on recent advances on drought related gene/QTL identification, studies on drought related molecular pathways, and current efforts on improvement of wheat cultivars for drought tolerance.

Meeting instream flow needs of lower Colorado River in Texas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, Q.W.

1993-01-01

The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), an agency of the State of Texas, manages the surface waters of the lower Colorado River in Texas. The major water supply source in the lower basin is the Highland Lakes chain of reservoirs in Central Texas. The use of water from these lakes for environmental protection and enhancement has received increasing attention in recent years. The LCRA recently completed major revisions to its comprehensive Water Management Plan (WMP) for the Highland Lakes. These revisions included changes to incorporate the results of a three year study of instream flow needs in the lower Colorado River. The instream flow needs were determined to consist of two flow regimes: critical and target. The critical flows are considered to be the daily minimum flows needed to maintain minimum viable aquatic conditions for important fish species. The target flow needs are those daily flows which maximize the available habitat for a variety of fish. After evaluating numerous policy options, LCRA revised to WMP to allow the release of water from the Highland Lakes to maintain the daily river flows at no less than the critical flows in all years. Further, in those years when drought-induced irrigation water supply curtailments do not occur, LCRA will release water from the lakes, to the extent of daily inflows, to maintain daily river flows at no less than the target levels. To fully honor this pledge, LCRA committed an average of 28,700 acre-feet annually, during any ten consecutive years, from the dependable supply of the Highland Lakes

Building the vegetation drought response index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) to monitor agricultural drought: first results

Science.gov (United States)

Tadesse, Tsegaye; Champagne, Catherine; Wardlow, Brian D.; Hadwen, Trevor A.; Brown, Jesslyn; Demisse, Getachew B.; Bayissa, Yared A.; Davidson, Andrew M.

2017-01-01

Drought is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs throughout the world and impacts many sectors of society. To help decision-makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve monitoring tools that provide relevant and timely information in support of drought mitigation decisions. Given that drought is a complex natural hazard that manifests in different forms, monitoring can be improved by integrating various types of information (e.g., remote sensing and climate) that is timely and region specific to identify where and when droughts are occurring. The Vegetation Drought Response Index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) is a recently developed drought monitoring tool for Canada. VegDRI-Canada extends the initial VegDRI concept developed for the conterminous United States to a broader transnational coverage across North America. VegDRI-Canada models are similar to those developed for the United States, integrating satellite observations of vegetation status, climate data, and biophysical information on land use and land cover, soil characteristics, and other environmental factors. Collectively, these different types of data are integrated into the hybrid VegDRI-Canada to isolate the effects of drought on vegetation. Twenty-three weekly VegDRI-Canada models were built for the growing season (April–September) through the weekly analysis of these data using a regression tree-based data mining approach. A 15-year time series of VegDRI-Canada results (s to 2014) was produced using these models and the output was validated by randomly selecting 20% of the historical data, as well as holdout year (15% unseen data) across the growing season that the Pearson’s correlation ranged from 0.6 to 0.77. A case study was also conducted to evaluate the VegDRI-Canada results over the prairie region of Canada for two drought years and one non-drought year for three weekly periods of the growing season (i.e., early-, mid-, and late season). The comparison of the Veg

The Urban Environment Can Modify Drought Stress of Small-Leaved Lime (Tilia cordata Mill. and Black Locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Astrid Moser

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The urban environment characterized by various stresses poses challenges to trees. In particular, water deficits and high temperatures can cause immense drought stress to urban trees, resulting in reduced growth and die-off. Drought-tolerant species are expected to be resilient to these conditions and are therefore advantageous over other, more susceptible species. However, the drought tolerance of urban trees in relation to the specific growth conditions in urban areas remains poorly researched. This study aimed to analyze the annual growth and drought tolerance of two common urban tree species, namely small-leaved lime (Tilia cordata Mill. (T. cordata and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L. (R. pseudoacacia, in two cities in southern Germany in relation to their urban growing conditions. Marked growth reductions during drought periods and subsequent fast recovery were found for R. pseudoacacia, whereas T. cordata exhibited continued reduced growth after a drought event, although these results were highly specific to the analyzed city. We further show that individual tree characteristics and environmental conditions significantly influence the growth of urban trees. Canopy openness and other aspects of the surrounding environment (water supply and open surface area of the tree pit, tree size, and tree species significantly affect urban tree growth and can modify the ability of trees to tolerate the drought stress in urban areas. Sustainable tree planting of well adapted tree species to their urban environment ensures healthy trees providing ecosystem services for a high quality of life in cities.

Precursor conditions related to Zimbabwe's summer droughts

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Nangombe, Shingirai; Madyiwa, Simon; Wang, Jianhong

2018-01-01

Despite the increasing severity of droughts and their effects on Zimbabwe's agriculture, there are few tools available for predicting these droughts in advance. Consequently, communities and farmers are more exposed, and policy makers are always ill prepared for such. This study sought to investigate possible cycles and precursor meteorological conditions prior to drought seasons that could be used to predict impending droughts in Zimbabwe. The Single Z-Index was used to identify and grade drought years between 1951 and 2010 according to rainfall severity. Spectral analysis was used to reveal the cycles of droughts for possible use of these cycles for drought prediction. Composite analysis was used to investigate circulation and temperature anomalies associated with severe and extreme drought years. Results indicate that severe droughts are more highly correlated with circulation patterns and embedded weather systems in the Indian Ocean and equatorial Pacific Ocean than any other area. This study identified sea surface temperatures in the average period June to August, geopotential height and wind vector in July to September period, and air temperature in September to November period as precursors that can be used to predict a drought occurrence several months in advance. Therefore, in addition to sea surface temperature, which was identified through previous research for predicting Zimbabwean droughts, the other parameters identified in this study can aid in drought prediction. Drought cycles were established at 20-, 12.5-, 3.2-, and 2.7-year cycles. The spectral peaks, 12.5, 3.2, and 2.7, had a similar timescale with the luni-solar tide, El Niño Southern Oscillation and Quasi Biennial Oscillation, respectively, and hence, occurrence of these phenomena have a possibility of indicating when the next drought might be.

Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes.

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Gazol, Antonio; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Gutiérrez, Emilia; de Luis, Martin; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Novak, Klemen; Rozas, Vicente; Tíscar, Pedro A; Linares, Juan C; Martín-Hernández, Natalia; Martínez Del Castillo, Edurne; Ribas, Montse; García-González, Ignacio; Silla, Fernando; Camisón, Alvaro; Génova, Mar; Olano, José M; Longares, Luis A; Hevia, Andrea; Tomás-Burguera, Miquel; Galván, J Diego

2018-05-01

Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Added Utility of Hydrological Model and Satellite Based Datasets in Agricultural Drought Analysis over Turkey

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Bulut, B.; Hüsami Afşar, M.; Yilmaz, M. T.

2017-12-01

Analysis of agricultural drought, which causes substantial socioeconomically costs in Turkey and in the world, is critical in terms of understanding this natural disaster's characteristics (intensity, duration, influence area) and research on possible precautions. Soil moisture is one of the most important parameters which is used to observe agricultural drought, can be obtained using different methods. The most common, consistent and reliable soil moisture datasets used for large scale analysis are obtained from hydrologic models and remote sensing retrievals. On the other hand, Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and gauge based precipitation observations are also commonly used for drought analysis. In this study, soil moisture products obtained from different platforms, NDVI and precipitation datasets over several different agricultural regions under various climate conditions in Turkey are obtained in growth season period. These datasets are later used to investigate agricultural drought by the help of annual crop yield data of selected agricultural lands. The type of vegetation over these regions are obtained using CORINE Land Cover (CLC 2012) data. The crop yield data were taken from the record of related district's statistics which is provided by Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). This project is supported by TÜBİTAK project number 114Y676.

Status of Drought and Desertification in Kenya

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mutiso, S.K

2001-01-01

The author defined drought in three points of view, viz: agricultural, meteorological and hydrological. All categories of drought are important in the understanding of the society's vulnerability to drought and adjustment mechanisms. Agricultural and hydrological droughts have been shown to have far greater socio-economic and political impacts to people living in the dry lands. methods of predicting drought have been highlighted. Early warning systems should be put in places at District level. Mitigation and rehabilitation of people suffering drought and attendant famine should involve both short term and long term strategies. Rain-harvesting techniques, soil and water conservation, crop water requirement and drought risk forecasting should be carried out along with other measures to combat desrtification

Effects of drought and irrigation on ecosystem functioning in a mature Scots pine forest

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Dobbertin, Matthias; Brunner, Ivano; Egli, Simon; Eilmann, Britta; Graf Pannatier, Eisabeth; Schleppi, Patrick; Zingg, Andreas; Rigling, Andreas

2010-05-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperature and reduce summer precipitation in Switzerland. To study the expected effects of increased drought in mature forests two different approaches are in general possible: water can be partially or completely removed from the ecosystems via above- or below-canopy roofs or water can be added to already drought-prone ecosystems. Both methods have advantages and disadvantages. In our study water was added to a mature 90-year old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest with a few singe pubescent oaks (Quercus pubescens Willd.), located in the valley bottom of the driest region of Switzerland (Valais). In Valais, Scots pines are declining, usually with increased mortality rates following drought years. It was therefore of special interest to study here how water addition is changing forest ecosystem functioning. The irrigation experiment started in the summer of 2003. Out of eight 0.1 ha experimental plots, four were randomly selected for irrigation, the other four left as a control. Irrigation occurred during rainless nights between April and October, doubling the annual rainfall amount from 650 to 1300 mm. Irrigation water, taken from a near-by irrigation channel, added some nutrients to the plots, but nutrients which were deficient on the site, e.g. nitrogen and phosphorus, were not altered. Tree diameter, tree height and crown width were assessed before the start of the irrigation in winter 2002/2003 and after 7 years of the experiment in 2009/2010. Tree crown transparency (lack of foliage) and leaf area index (LAI) were annually assessed. Additionally, tree mortality was annually evaluated. Mycorrhizal fruit bodies were identified and counted at weekly intervals from 2003 until 2007. Root samples were taken in 2004 and 2005. In 2004 and 2005 wood formation of thirteen trees was analysed in weekly or biweekly intervals using the pinning method. These trees were felled in 2006 for stem, shoot and needle growth analysis

Novel Digital Features Discriminate Between Drought Resistant and Drought Sensitive Rice Under Controlled and Field Conditions

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Lingfeng Duan

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Dynamic quantification of drought response is a key issue both for variety selection and for functional genetic study of rice drought resistance. Traditional assessment of drought resistance traits, such as stay-green and leaf-rolling, has utilized manual measurements, that are often subjective, error-prone, poorly quantified and time consuming. To relieve this phenotyping bottleneck, we demonstrate a feasible, robust and non-destructive method that dynamically quantifies response to drought, under both controlled and field conditions. Firstly, RGB images of individual rice plants at different growth points were analyzed to derive 4 features that were influenced by imposition of drought. These include a feature related to the ability to stay green, which we termed greenness plant area ratio (GPAR and 3 shape descriptors [total plant area/bounding rectangle area ratio (TBR, perimeter area ratio (PAR and total plant area/convex hull area ratio (TCR]. Experiments showed that these 4 features were capable of discriminating reliably between drought resistant and drought sensitive accessions, and dynamically quantifying the drought response under controlled conditions across time (at either daily or half hourly time intervals. We compared the 3 shape descriptors and concluded that PAR was more robust and sensitive to leaf-rolling than the other shape descriptors. In addition, PAR and GPAR proved to be effective in quantification of drought response in the field. Moreover, the values obtained in field experiments using the collection of rice varieties were correlated with those derived from pot-based experiments. The general applicability of the algorithms is demonstrated by their ability to probe archival Miscanthus data previously collected on an independent platform. In conclusion, this image-based technology is robust providing a platform-independent tool for quantifying drought response that should be of general utility for breeding and functional

What plant hydraulics can tell us about responses to climate-change droughts.

Science.gov (United States)

Sperry, John S; Love, David M

2015-07-01

Climate change exposes vegetation to unusual drought, causing declines in productivity and increased mortality. Drought responses are hard to anticipate because canopy transpiration and diffusive conductance (G) respond to drying soil and vapor pressure deficit (D) in complex ways. A growing database of hydraulic traits, combined with a parsimonious theory of tree water transport and its regulation, may improve predictions of at-risk vegetation. The theory uses the physics of flow through soil and xylem to quantify how canopy water supply declines with drought and ceases by hydraulic failure. This transpiration 'supply function' is used to predict a water 'loss function' by assuming that stomatal regulation exploits transport capacity while avoiding failure. Supply-loss theory incorporates root distribution, hydraulic redistribution, cavitation vulnerability, and cavitation reversal. The theory efficiently defines stomatal responses to D, drying soil, and hydraulic vulnerability. Driving the theory with climate predicts drought-induced loss of plant hydraulic conductance (k), canopy G, carbon assimilation, and productivity. Data lead to the 'chronic stress hypothesis' wherein > 60% loss of k increases mortality by multiple mechanisms. Supply-loss theory predicts the climatic conditions that push vegetation over this risk threshold. The theory's simplicity and predictive power encourage testing and application in large-scale modeling. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

DROUGHT ANALYSIS IN OZANA DRAINAGE BASIN

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Marina IOSUB

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Ozana drainage basin is located at the contact between large landscape units (the Carpathian mountains, the Subcarpathian area, and the plateau region. This placement determines the existence of a complex climate in the region. Despite being small in size, and its extension on an W-E direction, differences can be observed, especially of the way extreme phenomena take place. In the case of droughts, it had different intensities in the mountains, compared to the plateau region. In order to emphasize the different distribution on the territory, several climatic indexes have been calculated, regarding dryness (De Martonne Index, Hellman criterion. The analysis of these indexes at the same monitoring stations (Pluton, Leghin and Dumbrava emphasizes the growth of the drought periods in the plateau region and the fact that they shorten in the mountain area. In the mountainous area, where the land is very well forested, the values of the De Martonne index can reach 45.4, and in the plateau regions, where the forest associations are sparse, the values dropped to 30.6. According to the Hellman criterion, several differences can be emphasized, at basin level. In the mountainous region, there is only one month that, at a multi-annual level, has stood up among the rest, as being excessively droughty, while in the median /central region of the basin, three months have been identified, that have such potential, as well as five months, at Dumbrava.

Assessing social vulnerability to drought in South Africa: Policy implication for drought risk reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fumiso Muyambo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article was to assess and identify social vulnerability of communal farmers to drought in the O.R. Tambo district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using a survey data and social vulnerability index (SoVI. Eleven social vulnerability indicators were identified using Bogardi, Birkman and Cardona conceptual framework. The result found that an SoVI estimated for O.R. Tambo district was very high with a Likert scale of 5 for cultural values and practices, security or safety, social networks, social dependence, preparedness strategies and psychological stress attributed for the high value of social vulnerability to drought. Indigenous knowledge and education had an SoVI value of 2, which was of low vulnerability, contributing positively to resilience to drought. The study also found that government involvement in drought risk reduction is limited; as a result, the study recommends that a national, provincial and district municipalities policy on drought risk reduction and mitigation should be developed.

Spatial coherence and large-scale drivers of drought

Science.gov (United States)

Svensson, Cecilia; Hannaford, Jamie

2017-04-01

Drought is a potentially widespread and generally multifaceted natural phenomenon affecting all aspects of the hydrological cycle. It mainly manifests itself at seasonal, or longer, time scales. Here, we use seasonal river flows across the climatologically and topographically diverse UK to investigate the spatial coherence of drought, and explore its oceanic and atmospheric drivers. A better understanding of the spatial characteristics and drivers will improve forecasting and help increase drought preparedness. The location of the UK in the mid-latitude belt of predominantly westerly winds, together with a pronounced topographical divide running roughly from north to south, produce strong windward and leeward effects. Weather fronts associated with storms tracking north-eastward between Scotland and Iceland typically lead to abundant precipitation in the mountainous north and west, while the south and east remain drier. In contrast, prolonged precipitation in eastern Britain tends to be associated with storms on a more southerly track, producing precipitation in onshore winds on the northern side of depressions. Persistence in the preferred storm tracks can therefore result in periods of wet/dry conditions across two main regions of the UK, a mountainous northwest region exposed to westerly winds and a more sheltered, lowland southeast region. This is reflected in cluster analyses of monthly river flow anomalies. A further division into three clusters separates out a region of highly permeable, slowly responding, catchments in the southeast. An expectation that the preferred storm tracks over seasonal time scales can be captured by atmospheric airflow indices, which in turn may be related to oceanic conditions, suggests that statistical methods may be used to describe the relationships between UK regional streamflows, and oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Such relationships may be concurrent or lagged, and the longer response time of the group of permeable

California's Drought - Stress test for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Lund, J. R.

2014-12-01

The current California drought is in its third dry years, with this year being the third driest years in a 106-year record. This drought occurs at a time when urban, agricultural, and environmental water demands have never been greater. This drought has revealed the importance of more quantitative evaluation and methods for water assessment and management. All areas of water and environmental management are likely to become increasingly stressed, and have essentially drought-like conditions, in the future, as California's urban, agricultural, and environmental demands continue to expand and as the climate changes. In the historical past, droughts have pre-viewed stresses developing in the future and helped focus policy-makers, the public, and stakeholders on preparing for these developing future conditions. Multi-decade water management strategies are often galvinized by drought. Irrigation was galvanized by California droughts in the 1800s, reservoir systems by the 1928-32 drought, urban water conservation by the 1976-77 drought, and water markets by the 1988-92 drought. With each drought, demands for tighter accounting, rights, and management have increased. This talk reviews the prospects and challenges for increased development and use of water data and systems analysis in the service of human and environmental water demands in California's highly decentralized water management system, and the prospects if these challenges are not more successfully addressed.

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

A process-based typology of hydrological drought

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Loon, van A.F.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

2012-01-01

Hydrological drought events have very different causes and effects. Classifying these events into distinct types can be useful for both science and management. We propose a hydrological drought typology that is based on governing drought propagation processes derived from catchment-scale drought

Drought responses of conifers in ecotone forests of northern Arizona: tree ring growth and leaf delta13C.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Henry D; Kolb, Thomas E

2004-07-01

We sought to understand differences in tree response to meteorological drought among species and soil types at two ecotone forests in northern Arizona, the pinyon-juniper woodland/ponderosa pine ecotone, and the higher elevation, wetter, ponderosa pine/mixed conifer ecotone. We used two approaches that provide different information about drought response: the ratio of standardized radial growth in wet years to dry years (W:D) for the period between years 1950 and 2000 as a measure of growth response to drought, and delta13C in leaves formed in non-drought (2001) and drought (2002) years as a measure of change in water use efficiency (WUE) in response to drought. W:D and leaf delta13C response to drought for Pinus edulis and P. ponderosa did not differ for trees growing on coarse-texture soils derived from cinders compared with finer textured soils derived from flow basalts or sedimentary rocks. P. ponderosa growing near its low elevation range limit at the pinyon-juniper woodland/ponderosa pine ecotone had a greater growth response to drought (higher W:D) and a larger increase in WUE in response to drought than co-occurring P. edulis growing near its high elevation range limit. P. flexilis and Pseudotsuga menziesii growing near their low elevation range limit at the ponderosa pine/mixed conifer ecotone had a larger growth response to drought than co-occurring P. ponderosa growing near its high elevation range limit. Increases in WUE in response to drought were similar for all species at the ponderosa pine/mixed conifer ecotone. Low elevation populations of P. ponderosa had greater growth response to drought than high-elevation populations, whereas populations had a similar increase in WUE in response to drought. Our findings of different responses to drought among co-occurring tree species and between low- and high-elevation populations are interpreted in the context of drought impacts on montane coniferous forests of the southwestern USA.

Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian

Science.gov (United States)

Hossack, Blake R.; Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Pilliod, David S.; Corn, P. Stephen; , KRISTINE W. WILSON; , EVELYN L. BULL; , KRISTIN LOHR; , DEBRA PATLA; , JASON JONES

2013-01-01

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change.

Changing Drought Risk in a Warming World - Using Event Attribution Methods to Explore Changing Likelihoods of Drought in East Africa in the Past, Present and Future

Science.gov (United States)

O'Keefe, S. A.; Li, S.; Otto, F. E. L.

2017-12-01

East Africa is particularly vulnerable to potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, due to the particular climatic forces at play in the region and the population's dependence on rain fed agriculture. However large natural inter-annual variability in the region has made the detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcing a challenge. Making use of the design and implementation of the HAPPI project (happimip.org) in which large ensembles of atmosphere-only models are run under historic, 1.5 and 2 C conditions (Mitchell et al., 2017) we estimate current and future changes in the probability of drought in different regions to occur. Attribution of present day changes are examined alongside future conditions allowing for the first time a seamless analysis of how the risk of droughts in this highly vulnerable region changes. The large ensemble multi-model framework in the HAPPI design allows for a more robust estimation of extremes than ever before while at the same time providing a confidence estimate depending on the specific model used.

Nonparametric Integrated Agrometeorological Drought Monitoring: Model Development and Application

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qiang; Li, Qin; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Huang, Qingzhong; Sun, Peng

2018-01-01

Drought is a major natural hazard that has massive impacts on the society. How to monitor drought is critical for its mitigation and early warning. This study proposed a modified version of the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) based on precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, i.e., modified multivariate standardized drought index (MMSDI). This study also used nonparametric joint probability distribution analysis. Comparisons were done between standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized soil moisture index (SSMI), MSDI, and MMSDI, and real-world observed drought regimes. Results indicated that MMSDI detected droughts that SPEI and/or SSMI failed to do. Also, MMSDI detected almost all droughts that were identified by SPEI and SSMI. Further, droughts detected by MMSDI were similar to real-world observed droughts in terms of drought intensity and drought-affected area. When compared to MMSDI, MSDI has the potential to overestimate drought intensity and drought-affected area across China, which should be attributed to exclusion of the evapotranspiration components from estimation of drought intensity. Therefore, MMSDI is proposed for drought monitoring that can detect agrometeorological droughts. Results of this study provide a framework for integrated drought monitoring in other regions of the world and can help to develop drought mitigation.

Drought Characterisation Using Ground and Remote Sensing Data

Science.gov (United States)

Hore, Sudipta Kumar; Werner, Micha; Maskey, Shreedhar

2016-04-01

The North-West of Bangladesh is frequently affected by drought, which may have profound impacts to different water related sectors. The characterisation and identification of drought is, however, challenging. Despite several standard drought indices being available it is important that indicators proposed in support of an effective drought management are related to the impacts drought may have. In this study we present the characterisation of drought in the districts of Rajshahi and Rangpur in North-Western Bangladesh. Drought indicators were developed using available temperature, precipitation, river discharge and groundwater level data, as well as from remotely sensed NDVI data. We compare these indicators to records of drought impacts to agriculture, fisheries and migration collected from relevant organisations, as well as through interviews with key stakeholders, key informants, and community leaders. The analysis shows that droughts occur frequently, with nine occurrences in the last 42 years, as found using common meteorological drought indicators. NDVI data corroborated these events, despite being only available from 2001. The agricultural sector was adversely impacted in all events, with impacts correlated to drought severity. Impacts to the fisheries sector were, however, reported only three times, though impacts to fisheries are less well recorded. Interestingly, the good relationship between meteorological drought indicators and agricultural impacts weakens in the last decade. This appears to be due to the intensification of irrigation using groundwater, with the declining groundwater levels found in Rajshahi district suggesting overexploitation of the resource, and the increasing importance of groundwater drought indicators. The study reveals the drought indicators that are important to the agriculture and fisheries sectors, and also tentative threshold values at which drought start to impact these sectors. Such sector relevant drought indicators, as

Assessment of drought related mortality in pinyon-juniper and ponderosa pine forests using Forest Inventory and Analysis data

Science.gov (United States)

John D. Shaw

2008-01-01

(Please note, this is an abstract only) Widespread mortality in several forest types is associated with several years of drought in the Southwest. Implementation of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) annual inventory in several states coincided with the onset of elevated mortality rates. Analysis of data collected 2000-2004 reveals the status and...

Identification of drought-responsive miRNAs and physiological characterization of tea plant (Camellia sinensis L.) under drought stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yuqiong; Zhao, Shanshan; Zhu, Chen; Chang, Xiaojun; Yue, Chuan; Wang, Zhong; Lin, Yuling; Lai, Zhongxiong

2017-11-21

Drought stress is one of the major natural challenges in the main tea-producing regions of China. The tea plant (Camellia sinensis) is a traditional beverage plant whose growth status directly affects tea quality. Recent studies have revealed that microRNAs (miRNAs) play key functions in plant growth and development. Although some miRNAs have been identified in C. sinensis, little is known about their roles in the drought stress response of tea plants. Physiological characterization of Camellia sinensis 'Tieguanyin' under drought stress showed that the malondialdehyde concentration and electrical conductivity of leaves of drought-stressed plants increased when the chlorophyll concentration decreased under severe drought stress. We sequenced four small-RNA (sRNA) libraries constructed from leaves of plants subjected to four different treatments, normal water supply (CK); mild drought stress (T1); moderate drought stress (T2) and severe drought stress (T3). A total of 299 known mature miRNA sequences and 46 novel miRNAs were identified. Gene Ontology enrichment analysis revealed that most of the differentially expressed-miRNA target genes were related to regulation of transcription. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes analysis revealed that the most highly enriched pathways under drought stress were D-alanine metabolism, sulfur metabolism, and mineral absorption pathways. Real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) was used to validate the expression patterns of 21 miRNAs (2 up-regulated and 19 down-regulated under drought stress). The observed co-regulation of the miR166 family and their targets ATHB-14-like and ATHB-15-like indicate the presence of negative feedback regulation in miRNA pathways. Analyses of drought-responsive miRNAs in tea plants showed that most of differentially expressed-miRNA target genes were related to regulation of transcription. The results of study revealed that the expressions of phase-specific miRNAs vary with morphological, physiological, and

Hydrological classification of natural flow regimes to support environmental flow assessments in intensively regulated Mediterranean rivers, Segura River Basin (Spain).

Science.gov (United States)

Belmar, Oscar; Velasco, Josefa; Martinez-Capel, Francisco

2011-05-01

Hydrological classification constitutes the first step of a new holistic framework for developing regional environmental flow criteria: the "Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA)". The aim of this study was to develop a classification for 390 stream sections of the Segura River Basin based on 73 hydrological indices that characterize their natural flow regimes. The hydrological indices were calculated with 25 years of natural monthly flows (1980/81-2005/06) derived from a rainfall-runoff model developed by the Spanish Ministry of Environment and Public Works. These indices included, at a monthly or annual basis, measures of duration of droughts and central tendency and dispersion of flow magnitude (average, low and high flow conditions). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated high redundancy among most hydrological indices, as well as two gradients: flow magnitude for mainstream rivers and temporal variability for tributary streams. A classification with eight flow-regime classes was chosen as the most easily interpretable in the Segura River Basin, which was supported by ANOSIM analyses. These classes can be simplified in 4 broader groups, with different seasonal discharge pattern: large rivers, perennial stable streams, perennial seasonal streams and intermittent and ephemeral streams. They showed a high degree of spatial cohesion, following a gradient associated with climatic aridity from NW to SE, and were well defined in terms of the fundamental variables in Mediterranean streams: magnitude and temporal variability of flows. Therefore, this classification is a fundamental tool to support water management and planning in the Segura River Basin. Future research will allow us to study the flow alteration-ecological response relationship for each river type, and set the basis to design scientifically credible environmental flows following the ELOHA framework.

Development and assessment of Transpirative Deficit Index (D-TDI) for agricultural drought monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Borghi, Anna; Rienzner, Michele; Gandolfi, Claudio; Facchi, Arianna

2017-04-01

Drought is a major cause of crop yield loss, both in rainfed and irrigated agroecosystems. In past decades, many approaches have been developed to assess agricultural drought, usually based on the monitoring or modelling of the soil water content condition. All these indices show weaknesses when applied for a real time drought monitoring and management at the local scale, since they do not consider explicitly crops and soil properties at an adequate spatial resolution. This work describes a newly developed agricultural drought index, called Transpirative Deficit Index (D-TDI), and assesses the results of its application over a study area of about 210 km2 within the Po River Plain (northern Italy). The index is based on transforming the interannual distribution of the transpirative deficit (potential crop transpiration minus actual transpiration), calculated daily by means of a spatially distributed conceptual hydrological model and cumulated over user-selected time-steps, to a standard normal distribution (following the approach proposed by the meteorological index SPI - Standard Precipitation Index). For the application to the study area a uniform maize crop cover (maize is the most widespread crop in the area) and 22-year (1993-2014) meteorological data series were considered. Simulation results consist in maps of the index cumulated over 10-day time steps over a mesh with cells of 250 m. A correlation analysis was carried out (1) to study the characteristics and the memory of D-TDI and to assess its intra- and inter-annual variability, (2) to assess the response of the agricultural drought (i.e., the information provided by D-TDI) to the meteorological drought computed through the SPI over different temporal steps. The D-TDI is positively auto-correlated with a persistence of 30 days, and positively cross-correlated to the SPI with a persistence of 40 days, demonstrating that D-TDI responds to meteorological forcing. Correlation analyses demonstrate that soils

Mega drought in the Colorado River Basin, water supply, and adaptive scenario planning for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area; simulations using WaterSim 5.

Science.gov (United States)

Sampson, D. A.

2015-12-01

The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC), a boundary organization, bridges science and policy (to foster knowledge-based decision making); we study how decisions are made in the face of uncertainty. Our water policy and management model for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (hereafter "Phoenix"), termed WaterSim, represents one such bridging mechanism. We evaluated the effect of varying the length of drought on water availability for Phoenix. We examined droughts (starting in 2000) lasting 15, 25, and 50 years. We picked a 60-year window of runoff estimates from the paleo reconstruction data for the Colorado River (CO) (1121 through 1180 A.D.), and the two local rivers (1391 through 1450 A.D.), and assumed that the proportional difference in median flow between these periods and the long-term record represented an estimate of potential drought reductions on river flows. This resulted in a 12%, and 19% reduction in flows for the CO River and the Salt-Verde (SV) Rivers, respectively. WaterSim uses 30-year trace periods from the historical flow records to simulate river flow for future projections. We used each 30-year trace from the historical record (1906 to present, CO River; 1945 to present SV Rivers) , and default settings, to simulate 60 year projections of Lake Mead elevation and the accompanying Colorado River water shortages to Phoenix. Overall, elevations for Lake Mead fell below the 1st shortage sharing tier (1075 ft) in 83% of the simulations; 74% of the simulations fell below the 2nd tier (1050 ft), and 64% fell below the 3rd (1025 ft). Length of drought, however, determined the shortage tiers met. Median elevations for droughts ending in 2015, 2025, and 2050 were 1036, 1019, and 967 feet msl, respectively. We present the plausible water futures with adaptive anticipatory scenario planning for the projected reductions in surface water availability to demonstrate decision points for water conservation measures to effectively manage shortage conditions.

EFFECT OF DROUGHT ON STRESS IN PLANTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jelena Marković

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Drought occurs due to lack of water in the soil, as well as due to disturbances in the circulation of the atmosphere. The duration of the drought may be different, and droughts not only the lack of rainfall, but also erratic distribution of rainfall throughout the year. The intensity of droughts amplified high temperatures, low relative humidity and dry, hot winds. The drought in many areas of common occurrence that repeats without a discernible regularity. Although it can be found in almost all parts of the world, its characteristics vary from region to region. Defining drought is therefore difficult and depends on regional differences and needs, but also from the perspective from which to observe this phenomenon. In the broadest sense, the drought is due to the lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, leading to water shortages for some activities, group activities or an entire sector of the environment. Drought can not be viewed solely as a physical phenomenon. The occurrence of drought, because of the weather, a lot of influences and reflects on the plants and agricultural production.

Amazon forest response to repeated droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Feldpausch, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Brienen, R. J. W.; Gloor, E.; Lloyd, J.; Lopez-Gonzalez, G.; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A.; Malhi, Y.; Alarcón, A.; Álvarez Dávila, E.; Alvarez-Loayza, P.; Andrade, A.; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Arroyo, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Baker, T. R.; Baraloto, C.; Barroso, J.; Bonal, D.; Castro, W.; Chama, V.; Chave, J.; Domingues, T. F.; Fauset, S.; Groot, N.; Honorio Coronado, E.; Laurance, S.; Laurance, W. F.; Lewis, S. L.; Licona, J. C.; Marimon, B. S.; Marimon-Junior, B. H.; Mendoza Bautista, C.; Neill, D. A.; Oliveira, E. A.; Oliveira dos Santos, C.; Pallqui Camacho, N. C.; Pardo-Molina, G.; Prieto, A.; Quesada, C. A.; Ramírez, F.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Réjou-Méchain, M.; Rudas, A.; Saiz, G.; Salomão, R. P.; Silva-Espejo, J. E.; Silveira, M.; ter Steege, H.; Stropp, J.; Terborgh, J.; Thomas-Caesar, R.; van der Heijden, G. M. F.; Vásquez Martinez, R.; Vilanova, E.; Vos, V. A.

2016-07-01

The Amazon Basin has experienced more variable climate over the last decade, with a severe and widespread drought in 2005 causing large basin-wide losses of biomass. A drought of similar climatological magnitude occurred again in 2010; however, there has been no basin-wide ground-based evaluation of effects on vegetation. We examine to what extent the 2010 drought affected forest dynamics using ground-based observations of mortality and growth from an extensive forest plot network. We find that during the 2010 drought interval, forests did not gain biomass (net change: -0.43 Mg ha-1, confidence interval (CI): -1.11, 0.19, n = 97), regardless of whether forests experienced precipitation deficit anomalies. This contrasted with a long-term biomass sink during the baseline pre-2010 drought period (1998 to pre-2010) of 1.33 Mg ha-1 yr-1 (CI: 0.90, 1.74, p history. Thus, there was no evidence that pre-2010 droughts compounded the effects of the 2010 drought. We detected a systematic basin-wide impact of the 2010 drought on tree growth rates across Amazonia, which was related to the strength of the moisture deficit. This impact differed from the drought event in 2005 which did not affect productivity. Based on these ground data, live biomass in trees and corresponding estimates of live biomass in lianas and roots, we estimate that intact forests in Amazonia were carbon neutral in 2010 (-0.07 Pg C yr-1 CI:-0.42, 0.23), consistent with results from an independent analysis of airborne estimates of land-atmospheric fluxes during 2010. Relative to the long-term mean, the 2010 drought resulted in a reduction in biomass carbon uptake of 1.1 Pg C, compared to 1.6 Pg C for the 2005 event.

Impacts of climate change on vegetation, hydrological and socio-economic droughts in a transitional wet-to-dry Mediterranean region

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, João Pedro; Pulquério, Mário; Grosso, Nuno; Duarte Santos, Filipe; João Cruz, Maria

2015-04-01

noticeable increase in the latter decades. The exceptions are agricultural droughts for annual crops, which appear to benefit from a milder and rainier winter; and domestic water supplies, which are not threatened in any scenario as long as they are prioritized over other water uses.

Income breeding allows an aquatic snake Seminatrix pygaea to reproduce normally following prolonged drought-induced aestivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Winne, Christopher T; Willson, John D; Gibbons, J Whitfield

2006-11-01

1. Capital breeding is an ideal reproductive strategy for many ectotherms because it provides a disassociation between feeding and reproduction, a necessary requirement for animals that become anorexic during pregnancy. Among ectotherms, some viviparous snakes (e.g. Viperidae) exemplify the capital breeding strategy because many species (i) do not feed during pregnancy due to behavioural conflicts between reproduction and foraging, and (ii) take more than one season to accumulate sufficient energetic stores for reproduction. 2. Isolated wetlands often exhibit extreme annual fluctuations in environmental conditions with prolonged droughts periodically leaving wetlands completely dry and devoid of prey. Following droughts, however, wetlands can be extremely productive, rendering prey resources virtually unlimited for some species. 3. This study examines drought survival strategy and reproductive ecology of a small aquatic snake Seminatrix pygaea (Cope) in an isolated wetland. Seminatrix pygaea are atypical from most sympatric snake species in that (i) their small body size, reliance on aquatic prey, and high rates of evaporative water loss make them ill-suited to overland movement, and (ii) they may not be subject to costs typically associated with feeding during pregnancy. 4. We hypothesized that S. pygaea would survive periodic multiyear droughts by aestivating within the dried wetland, a survival strategy heretofore undocumented in snakes. Further, we hypothesized that if S. pygaea rely on 'typical' snake reproductive strategies of 'adaptive anorexia' and capital breeding, reproductive output would be reduced in the first wet year following drought. 5. By encircling a 10-ha wetland with a continuous drift fence before it refilled we were able to demonstrate that S. pygaea were present within the dried wetland prior to the onset of spring rains that refilled the wetland in 2003. Our results suggest that S. pygaea are capable of surviving multiyear droughts by

Politics and drought planning: Friends or foes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDowell, B.D.; Blomquist, W.

1993-01-01

Nothing frustrates the average drought planner more than politics. Yet, droughts cannot be prepared for realistically without reliable political partners, smoothly cooperating government agencies, and strong public support. This paper suggests six rules for linking technical drought planning processes to the political processes and institutions that can implement drought plans

Genetic dissection of drought tolerance in potato

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anithakumari, A.M.

2011-01-01

Drought is the most important cause of crop and yield loss around the world. Breeding for

drought tolerance is not straightforward, as drought is a complex trait. A better understanding

of the expression of drought traits, the genes underlying the traits and the way these

Arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis induces strigolactone biosynthesis under drought and improves drought tolerance in lettuce and tomato.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Lozano, Juan Manuel; Aroca, Ricardo; Zamarreño, Ángel María; Molina, Sonia; Andreo-Jiménez, Beatriz; Porcel, Rosa; García-Mina, José María; Ruyter-Spira, Carolien; López-Ráez, Juan Antonio

2016-02-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) symbiosis alleviates drought stress in plants. However, the intimate mechanisms involved, as well as its effect on the production of signalling molecules associated with the host plant-AM fungus interaction remains largely unknown. In the present work, the effects of drought on lettuce and tomato plant performance and hormone levels were investigated in non-AM and AM plants. Three different water regimes were applied, and their effects were analysed over time. AM plants showed an improved growth rate and efficiency of photosystem II than non-AM plants under drought from very early stages of plant colonization. The levels of the phytohormone abscisic acid, as well as the expression of the corresponding marker genes, were influenced by drought stress in non-AM and AM plants. The levels of strigolactones and the expression of corresponding marker genes were affected by both AM symbiosis and drought. The results suggest that AM symbiosis alleviates drought stress by altering the hormonal profiles and affecting plant physiology in the host plant. In addition, a correlation between AM root colonization, strigolactone levels and drought severity is shown, suggesting that under these unfavourable conditions, plants might increase strigolactone production in order to promote symbiosis establishment to cope with the stress. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Temporospatial Variations and Propagation of Drought in China

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, F.; Ye, A.; Luo, L.; Duan, Q.

2017-12-01

Drought monitoring and forecasting system is a crucial component of drought preparedness. However, under the changing environment, the hydro-climate presents non-stationarity due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, which brings great challenges for drought forecasts. This study investigates the temporospatial characteristics and propagation of different types of droughts from 1961 to 2016 in China. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) are used to characterize meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts, respectively. The soil moisture and streamflow datasets are obtained from simulations by the distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) hydrological model, which has been calibrated and validated in China. The spatial patterns of drought frequency and severity, and temporal characteristics of drought coverage, drought duration and drought intensity are investigated. The cross wavelet analysis is used to examine the correlations between meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts. The study also explores how different types of droughts are linked and how one drought morphs into another through time. The findings on temporospatial variations and propagation of drought will provide better understanding on drought development to be helpful for improvement of drought monitoring and forecasting.

Mapping of SPI drought index in South-Eastern Europe, theory and practice

Science.gov (United States)

Bihari, Z.; Szentimrey, T.; Lakatos, M.; Gregorič, G.; Likso, T.

2010-09-01

In recent decades drought has a major impact on the economy in South-Eastern Europe (SEE). The annual precipitation has decreased from the beginning of 20th century. Additional problem is that the intensity of precipitation increases in average. The part of runoff became larger, and greater part of the precipitation runs to the rivers, streamlets, and less part infiltrates into the soil. Therefore, the available water reduces for vegetation. Summarized, the drought tendency increases in the region. The Drought Management Centre for South East Europe was established to deal with these events and try to improve drought management and policy. One method to calculate the extent of a drought event is the application of drought indices. Several indices are used for this purpose, one of them is the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) developed by McKee et al. The SPI is based only on precipitation and can be used to monitor conditions on a variety of time scales. The SPI calculation for any location is based on long-term precipitation record for a desired period. This long-term record is fitted to a gamma probability distribution, which is then transformed into the standard normal distribution. In the practice SPI is calculated mainly for 1, 3, 6 months. The SPI calculator which is offered on the project page of DMCSEE is applied for SPI calculations in this study. For the interpolation of SPI we use the MISH interpolation method developed at Hungarian Meteorological Service (Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenized Data Basis; Szentimrey, Bihari, 2007). The interpolation can be realized in to ways: 1. The SPI values are calculated in grid points after gridding (by gridding part of MISH) the station precipitation data series 2. The station based SPI values are interpolated by method MISH One of the main feature of MISH is that it use longtime data series for modelling of the necessary climate statistical parameters while the SPI calculations are also based

Decadal Drought and Wetness Reconstructed for Subtropical North America in the Mexican Drought Atlas

Science.gov (United States)

Burnette, D. J.; Stahle, D. W.; Cook, E. R.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Griffin, D.; Cook, B.

2014-12-01

A new drought atlas has been developed for subtropical North America, including the entire Republic of Mexico. This Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) is based on 251 tree-ring chronologies, including 82 from Mexico and another 169 from the southern U.S. and western Guatemala. Point-by-point principal components regression was used to reconstruct the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June-August. Calibration and verification statistics were improved over what was previously possible with the North American Drought Atlas, which was based on fewer chronologies only in Mexico. The MXDA will be served on the web with analytical tools for composite, correlation, and congruence analyses. The new PDSI reconstructions provide a more detailed estimation of decadal moisture regimes over the past 2000 years, but are most robust after 1400 AD, when several chronologies are available across Mexico. Droughts previously identified in a subset of chronologies are confirmed and their spatial impact quantified in the new reconstructions. This includes the intense drought of the mid-15th Century described in Aztec legend, the 16th Century megadrought, and "El Año del Hambre", one of the worst famines in Mexican history. We also use the best replicated portion of the MXDA in the 18th and 19th Centuries to reconstruct moisture anomalies during key time periods of Mexican turmoil (e.g., the Mexican War of Independence).

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

2018-03-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

Are tall trees more sensitive to prolonged drought in tropical per-humid forests?

Science.gov (United States)

Schuldt, Bernhard; Horna, Viviana; Leuschner, Christoph

2010-05-01

Seasonality of water flux was investigated for common tree species of a Central Sulawesi pre-montane perhumid forest located in the Lore Lindu National Park. Trees were exposed to reduced soil water levels under a rainfall exclusion experiment (Sulawesi Throughfall Displacement Experiment, STD), to simulate drought effects and to monitor species-specific short-term responses to extended water stress. Several climate scenarios predict more frequent occurrence of ENSO droughts with increasing severity induced by global warming. Detailed assessments of the ecological consequences of droughts in perhumid forests are scarce and knowledge whether and how these ecosystems are adapted to severe droughts is limited. Key research questions were: (1) how do tall rainforest trees cope with long pathways under low evaporative demand, (2) how sensitive are trees from tropical perhumid forests and how do they acclimate to drought-stress and 3) does wood density determine the drought sensitivity of perhumid forest trees? From June 2007 until October 2009 we monitored 95 trees from 8 common tree species. Half of them were located under the STD Experiment and the other half in control areas. We used the constant heated method to continuously monitor stem xylem flux density and conduct parallel measurements of xylem anatomy and hydraulic conductivity in twigs, stems and roots. After almost 22 months of experimental drought only 25% of xylem flux density reduction was observed in the experimental trees. But the reaction to water stress was species-specific and in some species xylem flux went down to 50 % compared to the individuals located at the control plots. Wood density did not correlate with any hydraulic measurement, but anatomy and hydraulic architecture observations showed a positive correlation between xylem conductivity and vessel size with tree height. These results reveal a well adapted hydraulic system of tall canopy trees allowing for highly efficient water flow under

Spatial patterns of drought persistence in East China

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, L.; Ford, T.

2017-12-01

East China has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent decades. Understanding the characteristics of droughts and their persistence will provide operational guidelines for water resource management and agricultural production. This study uses a logistic regression model to measure the probability of drought occurrence in the current season given the previous season's Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as well as drought persistence. Results reveal large spatial and seasonal variations in the relationship between the previous season's SPI and the drought occurrence probability in a given season. The drought persistence averaged over the entire study area for all the four seasons is approximately 34% with large variations from season to season and from region to region. The East and Northeast regions have the largest summer drought persistence ( 40%) and lowest fall drought persistence ( 28%). The spatial pattern in winter and spring drought persistence is dissimilar with stronger winter and weaker spring drought persistence in the Southwest and Northeast relative to other regions. Logistic regression analysis indicates a stronger negative relationship in summer-to-fall (or between fall drought occurrence and summer SPI) than other inter-season relationships. This study demonstrates that the impact of previous season SPI and SOI on current season drought varies substantially from region to region and from season to season. This study also shows stronger drought persistence in summer than in other seasons. In other words, the probability of fall drought occurrence is closely related to summer moisture conditions in the East China.

European Drought and Water Scarcity Policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Özerol, Gül; Stein, Ulf; Troeltzsch, Jenny; Landgrebe, Ruta; Szendrenyi, Anna; Vidaurre, Rodrigo; Bressers, Hans; Bressers, Nanny; Larrue, Corinne

2016-01-01

Over the last decade, Europe’s drought management and policy has been characterized by a predominantly crisis-oriented approach. However, the widening gap between the impacts of drought episodes and the ability to prepare, manage and mitigate such droughts has motivated the European Union (EU) to

Improving Federal Response to Drought.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilhite, Donald A.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Glantz, Michael H.

1986-03-01

Severe and widespread drought occurred over a large portion of the United States between 1974 and 1977. Impacts on agriculture and other industries, as well as local water supplies, were substantial. The federal government responded with forty assistance programs administered by sixteen federal agencies. Assistance was provided primarily in the form of loans and grants to people, businesses and governments experiencing hardship caused by drought. The total cost of the program is estimated at $7-8 billion.Federal response to the mid-1970s drought was largely untimely, ineffective and poorly coordinated. Four recommendations are offered that, if implemented, would improve future drought assessment and response efforts: 1) reliable and timely informational products and dissemination plans; 2) improved impact assessment techniques, especially in the agricultural sector, for use by government to identify periods of enhanced risk and to trigger assistance measures; 3) administratively centralized drought declaration procedures that are well publicized and consistently applied; and 4) standby assistance measures that encourage appropriate levels of risk management by producers and that are equitable, consistent and predictable. The development of a national drought plan that incorporates these four items is recommended. Atmospheric scientists have an important role to play in the collection and interpretation of near-real time weather data for use by government decision makers.

Use of Drought Index and Crop Modelling for Drought Impacts Analysis on Maize (Zea mays L.) Yield Loss in Bandung District

Science.gov (United States)

Kurniasih, E.; Impron; Perdinan

2017-03-01

Drought impacts on crop yield loss depend on drought magnitude and duration and on plant genotype at every plant growth stages when droughts occur. This research aims to assess the difference calculation results of 2 drought index methods and to study the maize yield loss variability impacted by drought magnitude and duration during maize growth stages in Bandung district, province of West Java, Indonesia. Droughts were quantified by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 1- to 3-month lags for the January1986-December 2015 period data. Maize yield responses to droughts were simulated by AquaCrop for the January 1986-May 2016 period of growing season. The analysis showed that the SPI and SPEI methods provided similar results in quantifying drought event. Droughts during maize reproductive stages caused the highest maize yield loss.

A comparative analysis of surface winds in the Mid-Continental United States of America during severe droughts in the 1950s and 2010s.

Science.gov (United States)

McCarter, R.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Schepanski, K.; Gill, T. E.

2016-12-01

In 2011 the Mid-Continental United States of America experienced its worst drought since the 1930s `Dust Bowl` and subsequent 1950s Southwest drought. Both the 1950s and 2010s droughts have had negative ecological and economic impacts the Mid-Continental US (i.e. crops, livestock, fuel, and transportation). Drought distribution, severity, and duration in North America are influenced by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate variability as well as mesoscale land-surface forcing. Intense surface heating during a drought's summer months promotes dry convection and convergence thereby indirectly increasing dust emissions through increased surface-winds. Thus, drought years are frequently linked with increased dust storms and overall dust production that can affect visibility, crop production, and human health. Another important aspect that influences dust production is the potential change in behavior of surface winds during different drought and non-drought regimes over the past 60 years. This investigation compares historic and modern surface winds to determine if the wind-driven drought and dust producing conditions have changed. We examine hourly wind speed data from 79 meteorological stations distributed over the mid-continental USA (25° to 49°N,-116° to -93°W) for two drought periods (1954-1956, 2011-2013), and two relatively wet time periods (1983-1987, 1992-1998), as determined using the Palmer-Drought Severity Index. Our preliminary examination of annual and seasonal distributions of wind speed and show that wind speeds were statistically higher during the 1950s compared with the 2010s drought and wind speeds were also greater during the spring months compared to other seasons. Characterizing these winds is a first step in identifying if these changes are a result of land surface changes, general circulation changes associated with atmospheric anomalies, and/or climate change.

Xylem and Leaf Functional Adjustments to Drought in Pinus sylvestris and Quercus pyrenaica at Their Elevational Boundary.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-de-Uña, Laura; Rossi, Sergio; Aranda, Ismael; Fonti, Patrick; González-González, Borja D; Cañellas, Isabel; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo

2017-01-01

Climatic scenarios for the Mediterranean region forecast increasing frequency and intensity of drought events. Consequently, a reduction in Pinus sylvestris L. distribution range is projected within the region, with this species being outcompeted at lower elevations by more drought-tolerant taxa such as Quercus pyrenaica Willd. The functional response of these species to the projected shifts in water availability will partially determine their performance and, thus, their competitive success under these changing climatic conditions. We studied how the cambial and leaf phenology and xylem anatomy of these two species responded to a 3-year rainfall exclusion experiment set at their elevational boundary in Central Spain. Additionally, P. sylvestris leaf gas exchange, water potential and carbon isotope content response to the treatment were measured. Likewise, we assessed inter-annual variability in the studied functional traits under control and rainfall exclusion conditions. Prolonged exposure to drier conditions did not affect the onset of xylogenesis in either of the studied species, whereas xylem formation ceased 1-3 weeks earlier in P. sylvestris . The rainfall exclusion had, however, no effect on leaf phenology on either species, which suggests that cambial phenology is more sensitive to drought than leaf phenology. P. sylvestris formed fewer, but larger tracheids under dry conditions and reduced the proportion of latewood in the tree ring. On the other hand, Q. pyrenaica did not suffer earlywood hydraulic diameter changes under rainfall exclusion, but experienced a cumulative reduction in latewood width, which could ultimately challenge its hydraulic performance. The phenological and anatomical response of the studied species to drought is consistent with a shift in resource allocation under drought stress from xylem to other sinks. Additionally, the tighter stomatal control and higher intrinsic water use efficiency observed in drought-stressed P. sylvestris

Xylem and Leaf Functional Adjustments to Drought in Pinus sylvestris and Quercus pyrenaica at Their Elevational Boundary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Fernández-de-Uña

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Climatic scenarios for the Mediterranean region forecast increasing frequency and intensity of drought events. Consequently, a reduction in Pinus sylvestris L. distribution range is projected within the region, with this species being outcompeted at lower elevations by more drought-tolerant taxa such as Quercus pyrenaica Willd. The functional response of these species to the projected shifts in water availability will partially determine their performance and, thus, their competitive success under these changing climatic conditions. We studied how the cambial and leaf phenology and xylem anatomy of these two species responded to a 3-year rainfall exclusion experiment set at their elevational boundary in Central Spain. Additionally, P. sylvestris leaf gas exchange, water potential and carbon isotope content response to the treatment were measured. Likewise, we assessed inter-annual variability in the studied functional traits under control and rainfall exclusion conditions. Prolonged exposure to drier conditions did not affect the onset of xylogenesis in either of the studied species, whereas xylem formation ceased 1–3 weeks earlier in P. sylvestris. The rainfall exclusion had, however, no effect on leaf phenology on either species, which suggests that cambial phenology is more sensitive to drought than leaf phenology. P. sylvestris formed fewer, but larger tracheids under dry conditions and reduced the proportion of latewood in the tree ring. On the other hand, Q. pyrenaica did not suffer earlywood hydraulic diameter changes under rainfall exclusion, but experienced a cumulative reduction in latewood width, which could ultimately challenge its hydraulic performance. The phenological and anatomical response of the studied species to drought is consistent with a shift in resource allocation under drought stress from xylem to other sinks. Additionally, the tighter stomatal control and higher intrinsic water use efficiency observed in drought

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Data Products for National Drought Monitor Decision Support

Science.gov (United States)

Estep, Leland

2007-01-01

Drought effects are either direct or indirect depending on location, population, and regional economic vitality. Common direct effects of drought are reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity; increased fire hazard; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitat. Indirect impacts follow on the heels of direct impacts. For example, a reduction in crop, rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues, increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, migration, and disaster relief programs. In the United States alone, drought is estimated to result in annual losses of between $6 - 8 billion. Recent sustained drought in the United States has made decision-makers aware of the impacts of climate change on society and environment. The eight major droughts that occurred in the United States between 1980 and 1999 accounted for the largest percentage of weather-related monetary losses. Monitoring drought and its impact that occurs at a variety of scales is an important government activity -- not only nationally but internationally as well. The NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center) and the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) RMA (Risk Management Agency) have partnered together to develop a DM-DSS (Drought Monitoring Decision Support System). This monitoring system will be an interactive portal that will provide users the ability to visualize and assess drought at all levels. This candidate solution incorporates atmospherically corrected VIIRS data products, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and Ocean SST (sea surface temperature), and AMSR-E soil moisture data products into two NDMC vegetation indices -- VegDRI (Vegetation Drought Response Index) and VegOUT (Vegetation Outlook) -- which are then input into the DM-DSS.

Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wanders, Niko; Bierkens, Marc F P

2013-01-01

Over the past 50 years, human water use has more than doubled and affected streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought (the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow). Here, we quantify over the period 1960–2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological drought worldwide. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow over Europe, North America and Asia, and subsequently intensified the magnitude of hydrological droughts by 10–500%, occurring during nation- and continent-wide drought events. Also, human water consumption alone increased global drought frequency by 27 (±6)%. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia (35 ± 7%), but also substantial over North America (25 ± 6%) and Europe (20 ± 5%). Importantly, the severe drought conditions are driven primarily by human water consumption over many parts of these regions. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over the western and central US, southern Europe and Asia, whereas the impact of industrial and households’ consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over the eastern US and western and central Europe. Our findings reveal that human water consumption is one of the more important mechanisms intensifying hydrological drought, and is likely to remain as a major factor affecting drought intensity and frequency in the coming decades. (letter)

Drought priming effects on alleviating later damages of heat and drought stress in different wheat cultivars

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mendanha, Thayna; Hyldgaard, Benita; Ottosen, Carl-Otto

The ongoing change is climate; in particular the increase of drought and heat waves episodes are a major challenge in the prospect of food safety. Under many field conditions, plants are usually exposed to mild intermittent stress episodes rather than a terminal stress event. Previous, but limited...... studies suggest that plants subjected to early stress (primed) can be more resistant to future stress exposure than those not stressed during seedling stage. In our experiment we aimed to test if repeated mild drought stresses could improve heat and drought tolerance during anthesis heat and drought...... stresses in wheat cultivars. Two wheat cultivars, Gladius and Paragon, were grown in a fully controlled gravimetric platform and subjected to either no stress (control) or two (P) drought cycles during seedling stage, at three and five complete developed leaves. Each cycle consisted of withholding water...

Development of an Experimental African Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Forecasting System: A First Step towards a Global Drought Information System

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Sheffield, J.; Yuan, X.

2012-12-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are a significant source of social and economic damage. Internationally, organizations such as UNESCO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have recognized the need for drought monitoring, especially for the developing world where drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Having the capacity to monitor droughts in real-time, and to provide drought forecasts with sufficient warning will help developing countries and international programs move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. While observation-based assessments, such as those produced by the US Drought Monitor, are effective for monitoring in countries with extensive observation networks (of precipitation in particular), their utility is lessened in areas (e.g., Africa) where observing networks are sparse. For countries with sparse networks and weak reporting systems, remote sensing observations can provide the real-time data for the monitoring of drought. More importantly, these datasets are now available for at least a decade, which allows for the construction of a climatology against which current conditions can be compared. In this presentation we discuss the development of our multi-lingual experimental African Drought Monitor (ADM) (see http://hydrology.princeton.edu/~nchaney/ADM_ML). At the request of UNESCO, the ADM system has been installed at AGRHYMET, a regional climate and agricultural center in Niamey, Niger and at the ICPAC climate center in Nairobi, Kenya. The ADM system leverages off our U.S. drought monitoring and forecasting system (http://hydrology.princeton.edu/forecasting) that uses the NLDAS data to force the VIC land surface model (LSM) at 1/8th degree spatial resolution for the estimation of our soil moisture drought index (Sheffield et al., 2004). For the seasonal forecast of drought, CFSv2 climate

Application of Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System to enhance drought monitoring and forecasting in Lower Mekong region

Science.gov (United States)

Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.

2017-12-01

The Lower Mekong Region has been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to agricultural production leading to food insecurity and impacts on livelihoods of the farming communities. Climate variability further complicates the situation by making drought harder to forecast. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS), developed by SERVIR-Mekong, helps decision makers to take effective measures through monitoring, analyzing and forecasting of drought conditions and providing early warnings to farmers to make adjustments to cropping calendars. The RDCYIS is built on regionally calibrated Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and forecast of drought. The RHEAS allows ingestion of numerus freely available earth observation and ground observation data to generate and customize drought related indices, variables and crop yield information for better decision making. The Lower Mekong region has experienced severe drought in 2016 encompassing the region's worst drought in 90 years. This paper presents the simulation of the 2016 drought event using RDCYIS based on its hindcast and forecast capabilities. The regionally calibrated RDCYIS can help capture salient features of drought through a variety of drought indices, soil variables, energy balance variables and water balance variables. The RDCYIS is capable of assimilating soil moisture data from different satellite products and perform ensemble runs to further reduce the uncertainty of it outputs. The calibrated results have correlation coefficient around 0.73 and NSE between 0.4-0.5. Based on the acceptable results of the retrospective runs, the system has the potential to generate reliable drought monitoring and forecasting information to improve decision-makings at operational, technological and

Diversity of seedling responses to drought

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Slot, M.; Poorter, L.

2007-01-01