WorldWideScience

Sample records for ancient forests bayesian

  1. Dating ancient Chinese celadon porcelain by neutron activation analysis and bayesian classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Guoxi; Feng Songlin; Feng Xiangqian; Zhu Jihao; Yan Lingtong; Li Li

    2009-01-01

    Dating ancient Chinese porcelain is one of the most important and difficult problems in porcelain archaeological field. Eighteen elements in bodies of ancient celadon porcelains fired in Southern Song to Yuan period (AD 1127-1368) and Ming dynasty (AD 1368-1644), including La, Sm, U, Ce, etc., were determined by neutron activation analysis (NAA). After the outliers of experimental data were excluded and multivariate normal distribution was tested, and Bayesian classification was used for dating of 165 ancient celadon porcelain samples. The results show that 98.2% of total ancient celadon porcelain samples are classified correctly. It means that NAA and Bayesian classification are very useful for dating ancient porcelain. (authors)

  2. [Ancientness and maturity: two complementary qualities of forest ecosystems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cateau, Eugénie; Larrieu, Laurent; Vallauri, Daniel; Savoie, Jean-Marie; Touroult, Julien; Brustel, Hervé

    2015-01-01

    Ancientness and maturity are two major qualities of forest ecosystems. They are components of naturalness and are affected by human impact. These qualities and the associated terms are often mixed up and incorrectly used. We have carried out a synthesis in order to propose an adapted French terminology based on international literature. The topics of ancientness and maturity for biodiversity and soil characteristics are explained. This review leads us to submit different potential thresholds for ancientness and maturity. An analysis on ancientness and maturity on forest data for France leads to the conclusion that about 29% of all forests can be considered "ancient woodland", and less than 3% of the even-age forest is older than the harvesting age. Copyright © 2014 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  3. Bayesian phylogeny of sucrose transporters: Ancient origins, differential expansion and convergent evolution in monocots and dicots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duo ePeng

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Sucrose transporters (SUTs are essential for the export and efficient movement of sucrose from source leaves to sink organs in plants. The angiosperm SUT family was previously classified into three or four distinct groups, Types I, II (subgroup IIB and III, with dicot-specific Type I and monocot-specific Type IIB functioning in phloem loading. To shed light on the underlying drivers of SUT evolution, Bayesian phylogenetic inference was undertaken using 41 sequenced plant genomes, including seven basal lineages at key evolutionary junctures. Our analysis supports four phylogenetically and structurally distinct SUT subfamilies, originating from two ancient groups (AG1 and AG2 that diverged early during terrestrial colonization. In both AG1 and AG2, multiple intron acquisition events in the progenitor vascular plant established the gene structures of modern SUTs. Tonoplastic Type III and plasmalemmal Type II represent evolutionarily conserved descendants of AG1 and AG2, respectively. Type I and Type IIB were previously thought to evolve after the dicot-monocot split. We show, however, that divergence of Type I from Type III SUT predated basal angiosperms, likely associated with evolution of vascular cambium and phloem transport. Type I SUT was subsequently lost in monocots along with vascular cambium, and independent evolution of Type IIB coincided with modified monocot vasculature. Both Type I and Type IIB underwent lineage-specific expansion. In multiple unrelated taxa, the newly-derived SUTs exhibit biased expression in reproductive tissues, suggesting a functional link between phloem loading and reproductive fitness. Convergent evolution of Type I and Type IIB for SUT function in phloem loading and reproductive organs supports the idea that differential vascular development in dicots and monocots is a strong driver for SUT family evolution in angiosperms.

  4. Development of soil hydraulic soil properties below ancient forest, planted forest and grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, Nicole; Otten, Wilfred; Schmidt, Sonja; Bengough, Glyn; Bonell, Mike; Shah, Nadeem

    2014-05-01

    A number of serious flood events in recent years have focused attention on flood prevention and mitigation and modelling work suggests that climate change will lead to an increase in the intensity and frequency of flood events in many areas. To understand how soil hydraulic characteristics develops in relation to facilitating the infiltration and storage of storm rainfall, a hypothetical pedogensis sequence was first developed and then tested by investigating a grassland site and four Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forests of different ages in the Scottish Highlands. These sites are: grassland, six and 45 year-old Scots pine plantations, remnant 300 year old individual Scots pines and a 4000 year old Caledonian Forest. The soil characteristics measured were: field saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) using a constant head well permeameter, root numbers and proportion were estimated from soil pits and soil cores were taken for three different soil depths (0.06 - 0.10, 0.16 - 0.20 and 0.26 to 0.40m) for laboratory measurements to estimate organic matter, soil water release curves, macro-pores, and X - ray tomography measured pore connectivity and soil pore structure. It was observed that cutting down of the plantation increased organic matter because of the increase of dead biomass and decreased pore connectivity, which resulted in reduced hydraulic conductivity during the early years of re-afforestation. Where older trees were left, after cutting and removing younger trees; the range of OM, hydraulic conductivity, pore connectivity, and macropores remained similar to and older Scots pine plantation (45 years old). The undisturbed Ancient Caledonian remnant forest (approximately 4000 years old) was observed to have remarkably heterogeneous soil characteristics, providing extreme values of Kfs (12 to 4992 mm hr-1), OM, and macropores. Such ranges of soil characteristics were considered to be the optimum to reduce local flooding, because the soil matrix could

  5. Forgotten Forests? Food Potential of Ancient Coffee Forests and Agroforestry Systems in the Southwestern Ethiopian Mountains, Seen Through a Gender Lens

    OpenAIRE

    Sarah Marie Nischalke; Mulunesh Abebe; Beneberu Assefa Wondimagegnhu; Simone Kathrin Kriesemer; Tina Beuchelt

    2017-01-01

    Forests play an important role in the provision of food and livelihoods across the globe. Thus, forest protection contributes to a diverse set of Sustainable Development Goals. The Yayu Coffee Forest Biosphere Reserve in the southwestern Ethiopian mountains (elevation 1100–2300 m above sea level) hosts an ancient coffee forest with high biodiversity and a large nutritional potential. It is managed in zones, and smallholder farmers can still use forest resources in the buffer and transitional ...

  6. A Bayesian Belief Network approach to assess the potential of non wood forest products for small scale forest owners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacik, Harald; Huber, Patrick; Hujala, Teppo; Kurtilla, Mikko; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

    2015-04-01

    It is an integral element of the European understanding of sustainable forest management to foster the design and marketing of forest products, non-wood forest products (NWFPs) and services that go beyond the production of timber. Despite the relevance of NWFPs in Europe, forest management and planning methods have been traditionally tailored towards wood and wood products, because most forest management models and silviculture techniques were developed to ensure a sustained production of timber. Although several approaches exist which explicitly consider NWFPs as management objectives in forest planning, specific models are needed for the assessment of their production potential in different environmental contexts and for different management regimes. Empirical data supporting a comprehensive assessment of the potential of NWFPs are rare, thus making development of statistical models particularly problematic. However, the complex causal relationships between the sustained production of NWFPs, the available ecological resources, as well as the organizational and the market potential of forest management regimes are well suited for knowledge-based expert models. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are a kind of probabilistic graphical model that have become very popular to practitioners and scientists mainly due to the powerful probability theory involved, which makes BBNs suitable to deal with a wide range of environmental problems. In this contribution we present the development of a Bayesian belief network to assess the potential of NWFPs for small scale forest owners. A three stage iterative process with stakeholder and expert participation was used to develop the Bayesian Network within the frame of the StarTree Project. The group of participants varied in the stages of the modelling process. A core team, consisting of one technical expert and two domain experts was responsible for the entire modelling process as well as for the first prototype of the network

  7. Similar biodiversity of ectomycorrhizal fungi in set-aside plantations and ancient old-growth broadleaved forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spake, Rebecca; van der Linde, Sietse; Newton, Adrian C; Suz, Laura M; Bidartondo, Martin I; Doncaster, C Patrick

    2016-02-01

    Setting aside overmature planted forests is currently seen as an option for preserving species associated with old-growth forests, such as those with dispersal limitation. Few data exist, however, on the utility of set-aside plantations for this purpose, or the value of this habitat type for biodiversity relative to old-growth semi-natural ecosystems. Here, we evaluate the contribution of forest type relative to habitat characteristics in determining species richness and composition in seven forest blocks, each containing an ancient old-growth stand (> 1000 yrs) paired with a set-aside even-aged planted stand (ca. 180 yrs). We investigated the functionally important yet relatively neglected ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), a group for which the importance of forest age has not been assessed in broadleaved forests. We found that forest type was not an important determinant of EMF species richness or composition, demonstrating that set-aside can be an effective option for conserving ancient EMF communities. Species richness of above-ground EMF fruiting bodies was principally related to the basal area of the stand (a correlate of canopy cover) and tree species diversity, whilst richness of below-ground ectomycorrhizae was driven only by tree diversity. Our results suggest that overmature planted forest stands, particularly those that are mixed-woods with high basal area, are an effective means to connect and expand ecological networks of ancient old-growth forests in historically deforested and fragmented landscapes for ectomycorrhizal fungi.

  8. Quantifying pollen-vegetation relationships to reconstruct ancient forests using 19th-century forest composition and pollen data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Andria; Paciorek, Christopher J.; McLachlan, Jason S.; Goring, Simon; Williams, John W.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects relies partly on how effectively land-atmosphere interactions can be quantified. Quantifying composition of past forest ecosystems can help understand processes governing forest dynamics in a changing world. Fossil pollen data provide information about past forest composition, but rigorous interpretation requires development of pollen-vegetation models (PVMs) that account for interspecific differences in pollen production and dispersal. Widespread and intensified land-use over the 19th and 20th centuries may have altered pollen-vegetation relationships. Here we use STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial PVM, to estimate key process parameters and associated uncertainties in the pollen-vegetation relationship. We apply alternate dispersal kernels, and calibrate STEPPS using a newly developed Euro-American settlement-era calibration data set constructed from Public Land Survey data and fossil pollen samples matched to the settlement-era using expert elicitation. Models based on the inverse power-law dispersal kernel outperformed those based on the Gaussian dispersal kernel, indicating that pollen dispersal kernels are fat tailed. Pine and birch have the highest pollen productivities. Pollen productivity and dispersal estimates are generally consistent with previous understanding from modern data sets, although source area estimates are larger. Tests of model predictions demonstrate the ability of STEPPS to predict regional compositional patterns.

  9. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a process-based tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2014-02-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in many scientific disciplines. A key question for inverse parameter estimation is how to define the metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. This metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion methods require a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model parameters, known as the likelihood. For technical and computational reasons, likelihoods for process-based stochastic models are usually based on general assumptions about variability in the observed data, and not on the stochasticity generated by the model. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow the generation of likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual inventory data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine its sensitivity to the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and demonstrate the application of this method by fitting the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss how this approach differs from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), another method commonly used to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation

  10. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a complex tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2013-08-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in ecology and evolution. A key problem of inverse parameter estimation is to define a metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. Such a metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion approaches are based on a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model, known as the likelihood. Deriving likelihoods for dynamic models requires making assumptions about the probability for observations to deviate from mean model predictions. For technical reasons, these assumptions are usually derived without explicit consideration of the processes in the simulation. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow generating likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional MCMC, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual field data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine the sensitivity towards the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and show results from using this method to fit the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss differences of this approach to Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), another commonly used method to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation, can

  11. Detection of photosynthetic responses of cool-temperate forests following extreme climate events using Bayesian inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toda, M.; Knohl, A.; Herbst, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Yokozawa, M.

    2016-12-01

    The increase in extreme climate events associated with ongoing global warming may create severe damage to terrestrial ecosystems, changing plant structure and the eco-physiological functions that regulate ecosystem carbon exchange. However, most damage is usually due to moderate, rather than catastrophic, disturbances. The nature of plant functional responses to such disturbances, and the resulting effects on the terrestrial carbon cycle, remain poorly understood. To unravel the scientific question, tower-based eddy covariance data in the cool-temperate forests were used to constrain plant eco-physiological parameters in a persimoneous ecosystem model that may have affected carbon dynamics following extreme climate events using the statistic Bayesian inversion approach. In the present study, we raised two types of extreme events relevant for cool-temperate regions, i.e. a typhoon with mechanistic foliage destraction and a heat wave with severe drought. With appropriate evaluation of parameter and predictive uncertainties, the inversion analysis shows annual trajectory of activated photosynthetic responses following climate extremes compared the pre-disturbance state in each forest. We address that forests with moderate disturbance show substantial and rapid photosynthetic recovery, enhanced productivity, and, thus, ecosystem carbon exchange, although the effect of extreme climatic events varies depending on the stand successional phase and the type, intensity, timing and legacy of the disturbance.

  12. Forgotten Forests? Food Potential of Ancient Coffee Forests and Agroforestry Systems in the Southwestern Ethiopian Mountains, Seen Through a Gender Lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Marie Nischalke

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Forests play an important role in the provision of food and livelihoods across the globe. Thus, forest protection contributes to a diverse set of Sustainable Development Goals. The Yayu Coffee Forest Biosphere Reserve in the southwestern Ethiopian mountains (elevation 1100–2300 m above sea level hosts an ancient coffee forest with high biodiversity and a large nutritional potential. It is managed in zones, and smallholder farmers can still use forest resources in the buffer and transitional zones in a sustainable manner. The forest is rarely used as a food source, although a large majority of the population in this area suffers from micronutrient deficiencies. This article investigates whether sustainable use of forest resources can contribute to the achievement of different Sustainable Development Goals by looking, through a gender lens, at which forest ecosystem services the community uses; traditional coffee farmers' perceptions of wild edible plants, agricultural territories, and labor divisions; and the constraining factors for forest conservation and sustainable agroforestry on private forest plots. Data for this study were collected through ethnography, transect walks, a sex-disaggregated household survey (n = 334, 32 semistructured interviews, 40 focus groups, and 13 key stakeholder interviews. One reason for neglecting the forest as a food source is that forests are considered a male territory, while vegetable raising and nutrition are female responsibilities. In addition, the collection of wild foods is perceived as a last resort during a famine and as a practice of tribal groups. Because coffee production represents the traditional livelihood source, farmers accept the need to conserve the forest, which is necessary to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. While it may have negative implications for food security, the absence of a tradition of collecting wild plants is positive news for forest conservation.

  13. Forests, fields, and the edge of sustainability at the ancient Maya city of Tikal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, David L; Dunning, Nicholas P; Scarborough, Vernon L; Magee, Kevin S; Thompson, Kim M; Weaver, Eric; Carr, Christopher; Terry, Richard E; Islebe, Gerald; Tankersley, Kenneth B; Grazioso Sierra, Liwy; Jones, John G; Buttles, Palma; Valdez, Fred; Ramos Hernandez, Carmen E

    2014-12-30

    Tikal has long been viewed as one of the leading polities of the ancient Maya realm, yet how the city was able to maintain its substantial population in the midst of a tropical forest environment has been a topic of unresolved debate among researchers for decades. We present ecological, paleoethnobotanical, hydraulic, remote sensing, edaphic, and isotopic evidence that reveals how the Late Classic Maya at Tikal practiced intensive forms of agriculture (including irrigation, terrace construction, arboriculture, household gardens, and short fallow swidden) coupled with carefully controlled agroforestry and a complex system of water retention and redistribution. Empirical evidence is presented to demonstrate that this assiduously managed anthropogenic ecosystem of the Classic period Maya was a landscape optimized in a way that provided sustenance to a relatively large population in a preindustrial, low-density urban community. This landscape productivity optimization, however, came with a heavy cost of reduced environmental resiliency and a complete reliance on consistent annual rainfall. Recent speleothem data collected from regional caves showed that persistent episodes of unusually low rainfall were prevalent in the mid-9th century A.D., a time period that coincides strikingly with the abandonment of Tikal and the erection of its last dated monument in A.D. 869. The intensified resource management strategy used at Tikal-already operating at the landscape's carrying capacity-ceased to provide adequate food, fuel, and drinking water for the Late Classic populace in the face of extended periods of drought. As a result, social disorder and abandonment ensued.

  14. Pollination biology of the urban populations of an ancient forest, spring ephemeral plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maciej A. Ziemiański

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Habitat fragmentation, caused by, among all, agriculture and urbanization, is one of the most important drivers of plant biodiversity decline worldwide. One of the signs of deteriorating zoogamous plant reproduction is pollen limitation, often associated with a decline in pollinator diversity and abundance. Various authors predict that the most vulnerable taxa are outbreeding plant species characterized by specialist pollination systems. We have, therefore, focused on self-incompatible Corydalis solida, an ancient forest, spring ephemeral plant, growing in three remnant urban populations in the city of Warsaw (Poland. Over two years, we checked for pollen limitation and recorded insect diversity and abundance for C. solida flowers. Our study populations composed of self-incompatible individuals were mainly visited by generalist pollinators, and produced more seeds when supplementally pollinated. Pollen limitation, however, was greater during 1 year with an early spring onset, when we observed a decline in floral visitors diversity and activity. This was probably an effect of phenological mismatch between plants and their pollinators, in this case, mostly social bees, i.e., over-wintered bumblebee queens and Apis mellifera. We conclude that for outbreeding zoogamous spring ephemerals, such as C. solida serviced by generalist pollinators, changing climatic conditions may override the effects of habitat fragmentation and influence their reproductive success.

  15. Impact of ancient charcoal kilns on chemical properties of several forest soils after 2 centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufey, Joseph; Hardy, Brieuc; Cornelis, Jean-Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Pyrogenic carbon plays a major role in soil biogeochemical processes and carbon budgets. Until the early 19th century, charcoal was the unique combustible used for iron metallurgy in Wallonia (Belgium). Traditional charcoal kilns were built directly in the forest: wood logs were piled into a mound and isolated from air oxygen with a covering of vegetation residues and soil before setting fire, inducing wood pyrolysis. Nowadays, ancient wood-charring platforms are still easy to identify on the forest floor as heightened domes of 10 meters in diameter characterized by a very dark topsoil horizon containing charcoal dust and fragments. Our goal is to assess the effects of wood charring at mound kiln sites on the properties of various forest soil types in Wallonia (Belgium), after two centuries. We sampled soil by horizon in 18 ancient kiln sites to 1.20 meter depth. The adjacent charcoal-unaffected soils were sampled the same way. We also collected recent charcoal fragments and topsoil samples from a still active charcoal kiln located close to Dole (France) to apprehend the evolution of soil properties over time. The pH, total carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content, available phosphorus (Pav), cation exchange capacity at pH 7 (CEC), exchangeable cations (Ca++, Mg++, K+, Na+) and loss on ignition at 550°C (LI550) were measured on each soil sample. We separated the soil profiles in 5 groups based on the nature of soil substrate and pedogenesis for interpretation of the results. We show that the total carbon stock is significantly increased at kiln sites due to higher C concentrations and greater depth of the organo-mineral horizon. The C/N ratio in charcoal-enriched soil horizons is significantly higher than in the neighboring reference soils but clearly attenuated compared to pure wood-charcoal fragments. The CEC is higher in the charcoal-enriched soil horizons, not only due to higher C concentrations but also to increased CEC by carbon unit at kiln sites. The high

  16. Joint Bayesian Estimation of Quasar Continua and the Lyα Forest Flux Probability Distribution Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eilers, Anna-Christina; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Lee, Khee-Gan

    2017-08-01

    We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature-density relation γ -1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃ 7 % and ≃ 10 % at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ -1 of the IGM temperature-density relation with a precision of +/- 8.6 % at z = 3 and +/- 6.1 % at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.

  17. Spatial Bayesian belief networks as a planning decision tool for mapping ecosystem services trade-offs on forested landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Redin, Julen; Luque, Sandra; Poggio, Laura; Smith, Ron; Gimona, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    An integrated methodology, based on linking Bayesian belief networks (BBN) with GIS, is proposed for combining available evidence to help forest managers evaluate implications and trade-offs between forest production and conservation measures to preserve biodiversity in forested habitats. A Bayesian belief network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents variables and their dependencies through specifying probabilistic relationships. In spatially explicit decision problems where it is difficult to choose appropriate combinations of interventions, the proposed integration of a BBN with GIS helped to facilitate shared understanding of the human-landscape relationships, while fostering collective management that can be incorporated into landscape planning processes. Trades-offs become more and more relevant in these landscape contexts where the participation of many and varied stakeholder groups is indispensable. With these challenges in mind, our integrated approach incorporates GIS-based data with expert knowledge to consider two different land use interests - biodiversity value for conservation and timber production potential - with the focus on a complex mountain landscape in the French Alps. The spatial models produced provided different alternatives of suitable sites that can be used by policy makers in order to support conservation priorities while addressing management options. The approach provided provide a common reasoning language among different experts from different backgrounds while helped to identify spatially explicit conflictive areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Richness of Ancient Forest Plant Species Indicates Suitable Habitats for Macrofungi

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hofmeister, J.; Hošek, J.; Brabec, Marek; Dvořák, D.; Beran, M.; Deckerová, H.; Burel, J.; Kříž, M.; Borovička, Jan; Běťák, J.; Vašutová, Martina

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 8 (2014), s. 2015-2031 ISSN 0960-3115 Grant - others:GA MŽP(CZ) SP/2D1/146/08 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 ; RVO:67985831 ; RVO:67179843 Keywords : diversity * forest continuity * forest management * Herb-layer plant species * red-listed species * species richness * surrogacy Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research; EH - Ecology, Behaviour (GLU-S); EH - Ecology, Behaviour (UEK-B) Impact factor: 2.365, year: 2014

  19. Improving inferences from short-term ecological studies with Bayesian hierarchical modeling: white-headed woodpeckers in managed forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Daniel W; Roloff, Gary J

    2015-08-01

    Pilot studies are often used to design short-term research projects and long-term ecological monitoring programs, but data are sometimes discarded when they do not match the eventual survey design. Bayesian hierarchical modeling provides a convenient framework for integrating multiple data sources while explicitly separating sample variation into observation and ecological state processes. Such an approach can better estimate state uncertainty and improve inferences from short-term studies in dynamic systems. We used a dynamic multistate occupancy model to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and nesting for white-headed woodpeckers Picoides albolarvatus in recent harvest units within managed forests of northern California, USA. Our objectives were to examine how occupancy states and state transitions were related to forest management practices, and how the probabilities changed over time. Using Gibbs variable selection, we made inferences using multiple model structures and generated model-averaged estimates. Probabilities of white-headed woodpecker occurrence and nesting were high in 2009 and 2010, and the probability that nesting persisted at a site was positively related to the snag density in harvest units. Prior-year nesting resulted in higher probabilities of subsequent occurrence and nesting. We demonstrate the benefit of forest management practices that increase the density of retained snags in harvest units for providing white-headed woodpecker nesting habitat. While including an additional year of data from our pilot study did not drastically alter management recommendations, it changed the interpretation of the mechanism behind the observed dynamics. Bayesian hierarchical modeling has the potential to maximize the utility of studies based on small sample sizes while fully accounting for measurement error and both estimation and model uncertainty, thereby improving the ability of observational data to inform conservation and management strategies.

  20. Ancient biomolecules from deep ice cores reveal a forested southern Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willerslev, Eske; Cappellini, Enrico; Boomsma, Wouter Krogh

    2007-01-01

    It is difficult to obtain fossil data from the 10% of Earth's terrestrial surface that is covered by thick glaciers and ice sheets, and hence, knowledge of the paleoenvironments of these regions has remained limited. We show that DNA and amino acids from buried organisms can be recovered from the...... evidence in support of a forested southern Greenland and suggest that many deep ice cores may contain genetic records of paleoenvironments in their basal sections....

  1. Ancient DNA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willerslev, Eske; Cooper, Alan

    2004-01-01

    ancient DNA, palaeontology, palaeoecology, archaeology, population genetics, DNA damage and repair......ancient DNA, palaeontology, palaeoecology, archaeology, population genetics, DNA damage and repair...

  2. Molecular phylogeny, biogeography and insights into the origin of parthenogenesis in the Neotropical genus Leposoma (Squamata: Gymnophthalmidae): Ancient links between the Atlantic Forest and Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellegrino, Katia C M; Rodrigues, Miguel T; Harris, D James; Yonenaga-Yassuda, Yatiyo; Sites, Jack W

    2011-11-01

    Leposoma is a conspicuous component of leaf litter herpetofauna of South and Central American rainforests. The 15 bisexual and one parthenogenetic species are allocated to the parietale and scincoides groups based on morphology. Phylogenetic analyses of 1830 bp (mtDNA+nuclear) were performed on 63 specimens of four species from Amazonian and Panamanian rainforests, and six species and one undescribed form from the Atlantic Forest. Different methods of tree reconstruction were explored, with Anotosaura vanzolinia and Colobosauroides cearensis as outgroups. The monophyly of the parietale and scincoides groups is strongly supported. Contrary to previous hypotheses suggesting a recent contact between Atlantic and Amazon forests, our estimates point to an initial split in Miocene. The position of Leposoma baturitensis, endemic to relictual forests in the semiarid Caatingas northeastern Brazil, and its divergence from the remaining species of the Atlantic Forest, suggests an ancient isolation with no indication of a secondary contact with forests of the eastern coast. Our data do not permit unambiguous assignment of parental species of the unisexual Leposoma percarinatum or the mechanism involved in the origin of parthenogenesis, but revealed two highly divergent diploid and triploid lineages within L. percarinatum, indicating that the unisexuals represent a species complex. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Ancient deforestation revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, J Donald

    2011-01-01

    The image of the classical Mediterranean environment of the Greeks and Romans had a formative influence on the art, literature, and historical perception of modern Europe and America. How closely does is this image congruent with the ancient environment as it in reality existed? In particular, how forested was the ancient Mediterranean world, was there deforestation, and if so, what were its effects? The consensus of historians, geographers, and other scholars from the mid-nineteenth century through the first three quarters of the twentieth century was that human activities had depleted the forests to a major extent and caused severe erosion. My research confirmed this general picture. Since then, revisionist historians have questioned these conclusions, maintaining instead that little environmental damage was done to forests and soils in ancient Greco-Roman times. In a reconsideration of the question, this paper looks at recent scientific work providing proxy evidence for the condition of forests at various times in ancient history. I look at three scientific methodologies, namely anthracology, palynology, and computer modeling. Each of these avenues of research offers support for the concept of forest change, both in abundance and species composition, and episodes of deforestation and erosion, and confirms my earlier work.

  4. Characterizing Species at Risk II: Using Bayesian Belief Networks as Decision Support Tools to Determine Species Conservation Categories Under the Northwest Forest Plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce G. Marcot

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We developed a set of decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs that represented a complex set of evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive management process that evaluated new scientific information under the Northwest Forest Plan. The models were not prescriptive but helped resource managers and specialists to evaluate complicated and at times conflicting conservation guidelines and to reduce bias and uncertainty in evaluating the scientific data. We concluded that applying the BBN modeling framework to complex and equivocal evaluation guidelines provided a set of clear, intuitive decision-aiding tools that greatly aided the species evaluation and conservation process.

  5. Ancient Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Virginia

    This four-week fourth grade social studies unit dealing with religious dimensions in ancient Egyptian culture was developed by the Public Education Religion Studies Center at Wright State University. It seeks to help students understand ancient Egypt by looking at the people, the culture, and the people's world view. The unit begins with outlines…

  6. Ancient mitogenomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ho, Simon Y. W.; Gilbert, Tom

    2010-01-01

    The mitochondrial genome has been the traditional focus of most research into ancient DNA, owing to its high copy number and population-level variability. Despite this long-standing interest in mitochondrial DNA, it was only in 2001 that the first complete ancient mitogenomic sequences were obtai...

  7. Near Real Time Change-Point detection in Optical and Thermal Infrared Time Series Using Bayesian Inference over the Dry Chaco Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barraza Bernadas, V.; Grings, F.; Roitberg, E.; Perna, P.; Karszenbaum, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Dry Chaco region (DCF) has the highest absolute deforestation rates of all Argentinian forests. The most recent report indicates a current deforestation rate of 200,000 Ha year-1. In order to better monitor this process, DCF was chosen to implement an early warning program for illegal deforestation. Although the area is intensively studied using medium resolution imagery (Landsat), the products obtained have a yearly pace and therefore unsuited for an early warning program. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of an online Bayesian change-point detection algorithm for MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) datasets. The goal was to to monitor the abrupt changes in vegetation dynamics associated with deforestation events. We tested this model by simulating 16-day EVI and 8-day LST time series with varying amounts of seasonality, noise, length of the time series and by adding abrupt changes with different magnitudes. This model was then tested on real satellite time series available through the Google Earth Engine, over a pilot area in DCF, where deforestation was common in the 2004-2016 period. A comparison with yearly benchmark products based on Landsat images is also presented (REDAF dataset). The results shows the advantages of using an automatic model to detect a changepoint in the time series than using only visual inspection techniques. Simulating time series with varying amounts of seasonality and noise, and by adding abrupt changes at different times and magnitudes, revealed that this model is robust against noise, and is not influenced by changes in amplitude of the seasonal component. Furthermore, the results compared favorably with REDAF dataset (near 65% of agreement). These results show the potential to combine LST and EVI to identify deforestation events. This work is being developed within the frame of the national Forest Law for the protection and sustainable development of Native Forest in Argentina in

  8. Phylogenetic estimation of timescales using ancient DNA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molak, Martyna; Lorenzen, Eline; Shapiro, Beth

    2013-01-01

    analyses of ancient DNA. We also investigated the sample size and temporal span of the ancient DNA sequences needed to estimate phylogenetic timescales reliably. Our results show that the range of sample ages plays a crucial role in determining the quality of the results but that accurate and precise......In recent years, ancient DNA has increasingly been used for estimating molecular timescales, particularly in studies of substitution rates and demographic histories. Molecular clocks can be calibrated using temporal information from ancient DNA sequences. This information comes from the ages...... of the ancient samples, which can be estimated by radiocarbon dating the source material or by dating the layers in which the material was deposited. Both methods involve sources of uncertainty. The performance of Bayesian phylogenetic inference depends on the information content of the data set, which includes...

  9. Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Mark W. Schwartz

    1994-01-01

    Originally diminished by development, forests are coming back: forest biomass is accumulating. Forests are repositories for many threatened species. Even with increased standing timber, however, biodiversity is threatened by increased forest fragmentation and by exotic species.

  10. Ancient genomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Der Sarkissian, Clio; Allentoft, Morten Erik; Avila Arcos, Maria del Carmen

    2015-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed a revolution in ancient DNA (aDNA) research. Although the field's focus was previously limited to mitochondrial DNA and a few nuclear markers, whole genome sequences from the deep past can now be retrieved. This breakthrough is tightly connected to the massive sequen...

  11. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  12. Ancient Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swamy, Ashwin Balegar

    This thesis involves development of an interactive GIS (Geographic Information System) based application, which gives information about the ancient history of Egypt. The astonishing architecture, the strange burial rituals and their civilization were some of the intriguing questions that motivated me towards developing this application. The application is a historical timeline starting from 3100 BC, leading up to 664 BC, focusing on the evolution of the Egyptian dynasties. The tool holds information regarding some of the famous monuments which were constructed during that era and also about the civilizations that co-existed. It also provides details about the religions followed by their kings. It also includes the languages spoken during those periods. The tool is developed using JAVA, a programing language and MOJO (Map Objects Java Objects) a product of ESRI (Environmental Science Research Institute) to create map objects, to provide geographic information. JAVA Swing is used for designing the user interface. HTML (Hyper Text Markup Language) pages are created to provide the user with more information related to the historic period. CSS (Cascade Style Sheets) and JAVA Scripts are used with HTML5 to achieve creative display of content. The tool is kept simple and easy for the user to interact with. The tool also includes pictures and videos for the user to get a feel of the historic period. The application is built to motivate people to know more about one of the prominent and ancient civilization of the Mediterranean world.

  13. Ancient Bedforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    18 August 2004 This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows groupings of large ripple-like windblown bedforms on the floor of a large crater (larger than the image shown here) in Sinus Sabaeus, south of Schiaparelli Basin. These ripple-like features are much larger than typical wind ripples on Earth, but smaller than typical sand dunes on either planet. Like most of the other ripple-like bedforms in Sinus Sabaeus, they are probably ancient and no longer mobile. Dark streaks on the substrate between the bedforms were formed by passing dust devils. This image is located near 13.0oS, 343.7oW. The image covers an area about 3 km (1.9 mi) across and sunlight illuminates the scene from the upper left.

  14. Preliminary Study of Ancient Town Protection and Rural Tourism Development of Caoshi Town in Hengdong County, Hunan Province

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Tian-zhao; Yang, Zai-tian; Liu Pei-lin

    2012-01-01

    The typical style and features of mountains and waters in Caoshi Ancient Town, have hitherto been well preserved. Caoshi Ancient Town boasts superior base of the natural eco-environment and deep-rooted background of regional culture, where mountains, waters, shoals, towns and other landscape elements are merged harmoniously, the transportation and geographical conditions have been fundamentally changed. Ancient towns, old temples, ancient forests, ancient wells and ancient piers are unique in...

  15. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  16. Apps for Ancient Civilizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Stephanie

    2011-01-01

    This project incorporates technology and a historical emphasis on science drawn from ancient civilizations to promote a greater understanding of conceptual science. In the Apps for Ancient Civilizations project, students investigate an ancient culture to discover how people might have used science and math smartphone apps to make their lives…

  17. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  18. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2003-01-01

    As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

  19. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  20. A Bayesian approach to landscape ecological risk assessment applied to the upper Grande Ronde watershed, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimberley K. Ayre; Wayne G. Landis

    2012-01-01

    We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances,...

  1. Landscape genetics indicate recently increased habitat fragmentation in African forest-associated chafers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberle, Jonas; Rödder, Dennis; Beckett, Marc; Ahrens, Dirk

    2017-05-01

    Today, indigenous forests cover less than 0.6% of South Africa's land surface and are highly fragmented. Most forest relicts are very small and typically occur in fire-protected gorges along the eastern Great Escarpment. Yet, they hold a unique and valuable fauna with high endemism and ancient phylogenetic lineages, fostered by long-term climatic stability and complex microclimates. Despite numerous studies on southern African vegetation cover, the current state of knowledge about the natural extension of indigenous forests is rather fragmentary. We use an integrated approach of population-level phylogeography and climatic niche modeling of forest-associated chafer species to assess connectivity and extent of forest habitats since the last glacial maximum. Current and past species distribution models ascertained potential fluctuations of forest distribution and supported a much wider potential current extension of forests based on climatic data. Considerable genetic admixture of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA among many populations and an increase in mean population mutation rate in Extended Bayesian Skyline Plots of all species indicated more extended or better connected forests in the recent past (habitat succession scenarios suggests considerable loss of habitat connectivity. As major anthropogenic influence is likely, conservational actions need to be considered. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Studying Ancient History.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrow, Robin

    1982-01-01

    Defends the value and relevance of the study of ancient history and classics in history curricula. The unique homogeneity of the classical period contributes to its instructional manageability. A year-long, secondary-level course on fifth-century Greece and Rome is described to illustrate effective approaches to teaching ancient history. (AM)

  3. Ancient Astronomy in Armenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsamian, Elma S.

    2007-08-01

    The most important discovery, which enriched our knowledge of ancient astronomy in Armenia, was the complex of platforms for astronomical observations on the Small Hill of Metzamor, which may be called an ancient “observatory”. Investigations on that Hill show that the ancient inhabitants of the Armenian Highlands have left us not only pictures of celestial bodies, but a very ancient complex of platforms for observing the sky. Among the ancient monuments in Armenia there is a megalithic monument, probably, being connected with astronomy. 250km South-East of Yerevan there is a structure Zorats Kar (Karahunge) dating back to II millennium B.C. Vertical megaliths many of which are more than two meters high form stone rings resembling ancient stone monuments - henges in Great Britain and Brittany. Medieval observations of comets and novas by data in ancient Armenian manuscripts are found. In the collection of ancient Armenian manuscripts (Matenadaran) in Yerevan there are many manuscripts with information about observations of astronomical events as: solar and lunar eclipses, comets and novas, bolides and meteorites etc. in medieval Armenia.

  4. Medicine in Ancient Assur

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arbøll, Troels Pank

    This dissertation is a microhistorical study of a single individual named Kiṣir-Aššur who practiced medicine in the ancient city of Assur (modern northern Iraq) in the 7th century BCE. The study provides the first detailed analysis of one healer’s education and practice in ancient Mesopotamia...

  5. Discovering the Ancient Maya from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sever, T. L.

    2008-01-01

    The Pet6n region of northern Guatemala contains some of the most significant Mayan archeological sites in Latin America. It was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared. Remote sensing technology is helping to locate and map ancient Maya sites that are threatened today by accelerating deforestation and looting. Thematic Mapper, IKONOS, and QuickBird satellite, and airborne STAR-3i and AIRSAR radar data, combined with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, are successfully detecting ancient Maya features such as sites, roadways, canals, and water reservoirs. Satellite imagery is also being used to map the bajos, which are seasonally flooded swamps that cover over 40% of the land surface. Through the use of various airborne and satellite sensor systems we have been able to detect and map ancient causeways, temples, reservoirs, and land forms, and locate these features on the ground through GPS technology. Recently, we have discovered that there is a strong relationship between a tropical forest vegetation signature in satellite imagery and the location of archeological sites. We believe that the use of limestone and lime plasters in ancient Maya construction affects the moisture, nutrition, and plant species of the surface vegetation. We have mapped these vegetation signatures in the imagery and verified through field survey that they are indicative of archeological sites. Through the use of remote sensing and GIS technology it is possible to identify unrecorded archeological features in a dense tropical forest environment and monitor these cultural features for their protection.

  6. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2011-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

  7. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  8. Statistical assignment of DNA sequences using Bayesian phylogenetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terkelsen, Kasper Munch; Boomsma, Wouter Krogh; Huelsenbeck, John P.

    2008-01-01

    We provide a new automated statistical method for DNA barcoding based on a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. The method is based on automated database sequence retrieval, alignment, and phylogenetic analysis using a custom-built program for Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. We show on real data......-analysis of previously published ancient DNA data and show that, with high statistical confidence, most of the published sequences are in fact of Neanderthal origin. However, there are several cases of chimeric sequences that are comprised of a combination of both Neanderthal and modern human DNA....

  9. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    is largely due to the availability of efficient inference algorithms for answering probabilistic queries about the states of the variables in the network. Furthermore, to support the construction of Bayesian network models, learning algorithms are also available. We give an overview of the Bayesian network...

  10. The Bayesian Score Statistic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

  11. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  12. Dentistry in ancient mesopotamia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiburger, E J

    2000-01-01

    Sumer, an empire in ancient Mesopotamia (southern Iraq), is well known as the cradle of our modern civilization and the home of biblical Abraham. An analysis of skeletal remains from cemeteries at the ancient cities of Ur and Kish (circa 2000 B.C.), show a genetically homogeneous, diseased, and short-lived population. These ancient Mesopotamians suffered severe dental attrition (95 percent), periodontal disease (42 percent), and caries (2 percent). Many oral congenital and neoplastic lesions were noted. During this period, the "local dentists" knew only a few modern dental techniques. Skeletal (dental) evidence indicates that the population suffered from chronic malnutrition. Malnutrition was probably caused by famine, which is substantiated in historic cuneiform and biblical writings, geologic strata samples, and analysis of skeletal and forensic dental pathology. These people had modern dentition but relatively poor dental health. The population's lack of malocclusions, caries, and TMJ problems appear to be due to flat plane occlusion.

  13. Ancient Chinese Precedents in China

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Geddis, Robert

    1999-01-01

    ... classics from ancient china. The assumption is that since China's political and military leaders state openly that their strategy is based on traditional Chinese strategic concepts, a study of ancient classics on strategy...

  14. Mathematics in Ancient India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this series of articles, we intend to have a glimpse of some of the landmarks in ancient In- dian mathematics with special emphasis on num- ber theory. This issue features a brief overview of some of the high peaks of mathematics in an- cient India. In the next part we shall describe. Aryabhata's general solution in integers ...

  15. Printing Ancient Terracotta Warriors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadecki, Victoria L.

    2010-01-01

    Standing in awe in Xian, China, at the Terra Cotta warrior archaeological site, the author thought of sharing this experience and excitement with her sixth-grade students. She decided to let her students carve patterns of the ancient soldiers to understand their place in Chinese history. They would make block prints and print multiple soldiers on…

  16. Trepanation in Ancient China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobert, Leah; Binello, Emanuela

    2017-05-01

    Trepanation, the process of making a burr hole in the skull to access the brain, is an ancient form of a primitive craniotomy. There is widespread evidence of contributions made to this practice by ancient civilizations in Europe, Africa, and South America, where archaeologists have unearthed thousands of trepanned skulls dating back to the Neolithic period. Little is known about trepanation in China, and it is commonly believed that the Chinese used only traditional Chinese medicine and nonsurgical methods for treating brain injuries. However, a thorough analysis of the available archeological and literary evidence reveals that trepanation was widely practiced throughout China thousands of years ago. A significant number of trepanned Chinese skulls have been unearthed showing signs of healing and suggesting that patients survived after surgery. Trepanation was likely performed for therapeutic and spiritual reasons. Medical and historical works from Chinese literature contain descriptions of primitive neurosurgical procedures, including stories of surgeons, such as the legendary Hua Tuo, and surgical techniques used for the treatment of brain pathologies. The lack of translation of Chinese reports into the English language and the lack of publications on this topic in the English language may have contributed to the misconception that ancient China was devoid of trepanation. This article summarizes the available evidence attesting to the performance of successful primitive cranial surgery in ancient China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Ancient Egypt: History 380.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turk, Laraine D.

    "Ancient Egypt," an upper-division, non-required history course covering Egypt from pre-dynastic time through the Roman domination is described. General descriptive information is presented first, including the method of grading, expectation of student success rate, long-range course objectives, procedures for revising the course, major…

  18. Ancient Egypt: Personal Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolinski, Arelene

    This teacher resource book provides information on ancient Egypt via short essays, photographs, maps, charts, and drawings. Egyptian social and religious life, including writing, art, architecture, and even the practice of mummification, is conveniently summarized for the teacher or other practitioner in a series of one to three page articles with…

  19. Mathematics in Ancient India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Number Theory for its own sake, as a great 'intellectual challenge, has a long history, particularly here in India. Already in the 7th century, Brahmagupta made impor- tant contributions to what is now known (incorrectly) as. Pell's equation.: Michael Atiyah ([1], p.913). In number theory, the grandest achievements of ancient.

  20. Creative Ventures: Ancient Civilizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stark, Rebecca

    The open-ended activities in this book are designed to extend the imagination and creativity of students and encourage students to examine their feelings and values about historic eras. Civilizations addressed include ancient Egypt, Greece, Rome, Mayan, Stonehenge, and Mesopotamia. The activities focus upon the cognitive and affective pupil…

  1. Mathematics in Ancient India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    SERIES I ARTICLE. Mathematics in Ancient India. 3. Brahmagupta's Lemma: The Samasabhavana. Amartya Kumar Dutta is an Associate Professor of. Mathematics at the. Indian Statistical. Institute, Kolkata. His research interest is in commutative algebra. Part 1, An overview, Reso- nance, VoL7, No.4, pp.4-19,. 2002. Part 2.

  2. Incest in Ancient Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Škorić Marko

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available There are many controversies that surround the problem of incest in Ancient Egypt. One of them is belief that incest was practiced exclusively by the Royal families, which is incorrect. I will try to show that at this time we don’t have satisfactory explanation of this kind of behavior, but that there are interesting suggestions for further research.

  3. Ancient ports of Kalinga

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tripati, S.

    which plied between Kalinga and south east Asian countries. Nanda Raja, is said to have attacked Kalinga with the intention of getting access to the sea for the landlocked Kingdom of Magadha (Bihar). The ancient texa Artha Sastra (3rd-4th century B...

  4. Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

  5. Bayesian estimation of seasonal course of canopy leaf area index from hyperspectral satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varvia, Petri; Rautiainen, Miina; Seppänen, Aku

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, Bayesian inversion of a physically-based forest reflectance model is investigated to estimate of boreal forest canopy leaf area index (LAI) from EO-1 Hyperion hyperspectral data. The data consist of multiple forest stands with different species compositions and structures, imaged in three phases of the growing season. The Bayesian estimates of canopy LAI are compared to reference estimates based on a spectral vegetation index. The forest reflectance model contains also other unknown variables in addition to LAI, for example leaf single scattering albedo and understory reflectance. In the Bayesian approach, these variables are estimated simultaneously with LAI. The feasibility and seasonal variation of these estimates is also examined. Credible intervals for the estimates are also calculated and evaluated. The results show that the Bayesian inversion approach is significantly better than using a comparable spectral vegetation index regression.

  6. Bayesian methods for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Carlin, Bradley P.

    2009-01-01

    Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

  7. Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Donald A

    1996-01-01

    ...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

  8. Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

    We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

  9. Practical Bayesian tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granade, Christopher; Combes, Joshua; Cory, D. G.

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of-the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we address all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Huszár and Houlsby (2012 Phys. Rev. A 85 052120) and by Ferrie (2014 New J. Phys. 16 093035), to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first priors on quantum states and channels that allow for including useful experimental insight. Finally, we develop a method that allows tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.

  10. Variational Bayesian Filtering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmídl, Václav; Quinn, A.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 10 (2008), s. 5020-5030 ISSN 1053-587X R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayesian filtering * particle filtering * Variational Bayes Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 2.335, year: 2008 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/AS/smidl-variational bayesian filtering.pdf

  11. Bayesian Networks An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Koski, Timo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

  12. Mitochondrial phylogenomics of modern and ancient equids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilstrup, Julia T; Seguin-Orlando, Andaine; Stiller, Mathias; Ginolhac, Aurelien; Raghavan, Maanasa; Nielsen, Sandra C A; Weinstock, Jacobo; Froese, Duane; Vasiliev, Sergei K; Ovodov, Nikolai D; Clary, Joel; Helgen, Kristofer M; Fleischer, Robert C; Cooper, Alan; Shapiro, Beth; Orlando, Ludovic

    2013-01-01

    The genus Equus is richly represented in the fossil record, yet our understanding of taxonomic relationships within this genus remains limited. To estimate the phylogenetic relationships among modern horses, zebras, asses and donkeys, we generated the first data set including complete mitochondrial sequences from all seven extant lineages within the genus Equus. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic inference confirms that zebras are monophyletic within the genus, and the Plains and Grevy's zebras form a well-supported monophyletic group. Using ancient DNA techniques, we further characterize the complete mitochondrial genomes of three extinct equid lineages (the New World stilt-legged horses, NWSLH; the subgenus Sussemionus; and the Quagga, Equus quagga quagga). Comparisons with extant taxa confirm the NWSLH as being part of the caballines, and the Quagga and Plains zebras as being conspecific. However, the evolutionary relationships among the non-caballine lineages, including the now-extinct subgenus Sussemionus, remain unresolved, most likely due to extremely rapid radiation within this group. The closest living outgroups (rhinos and tapirs) were found to be too phylogenetically distant to calibrate reliable molecular clocks. Additional mitochondrial genome sequence data, including radiocarbon dated ancient equids, will be required before revisiting the exact timing of the lineage radiation leading up to modern equids, which for now were found to have possibly shared a common ancestor as far as up to 4 Million years ago (Mya).

  13. Mitochondrial phylogenomics of modern and ancient equids.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia T Vilstrup

    Full Text Available The genus Equus is richly represented in the fossil record, yet our understanding of taxonomic relationships within this genus remains limited. To estimate the phylogenetic relationships among modern horses, zebras, asses and donkeys, we generated the first data set including complete mitochondrial sequences from all seven extant lineages within the genus Equus. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic inference confirms that zebras are monophyletic within the genus, and the Plains and Grevy's zebras form a well-supported monophyletic group. Using ancient DNA techniques, we further characterize the complete mitochondrial genomes of three extinct equid lineages (the New World stilt-legged horses, NWSLH; the subgenus Sussemionus; and the Quagga, Equus quagga quagga. Comparisons with extant taxa confirm the NWSLH as being part of the caballines, and the Quagga and Plains zebras as being conspecific. However, the evolutionary relationships among the non-caballine lineages, including the now-extinct subgenus Sussemionus, remain unresolved, most likely due to extremely rapid radiation within this group. The closest living outgroups (rhinos and tapirs were found to be too phylogenetically distant to calibrate reliable molecular clocks. Additional mitochondrial genome sequence data, including radiocarbon dated ancient equids, will be required before revisiting the exact timing of the lineage radiation leading up to modern equids, which for now were found to have possibly shared a common ancestor as far as up to 4 Million years ago (Mya.

  14. Ancient and modern environmental DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Mikkel Winther; Overballe-Petersen, Søren; Ermini, Luca; Sarkissian, Clio Der; Haile, James; Hellstrom, Micaela; Spens, Johan; Thomsen, Philip Francis; Bohmann, Kristine; Cappellini, Enrico; Schnell, Ida Bærholm; Wales, Nathan A.; Carøe, Christian; Campos, Paula F.; Schmidt, Astrid M. Z.; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.; Hansen, Anders J.; Orlando, Ludovic; Willerslev, Eske

    2015-01-01

    DNA obtained from environmental samples such as sediments, ice or water (environmental DNA, eDNA), represents an important source of information on past and present biodiversity. It has revealed an ancient forest in Greenland, extended by several thousand years the survival dates for mainland woolly mammoth in Alaska, and pushed back the dates for spruce survival in Scandinavian ice-free refugia during the last glaciation. More recently, eDNA was used to uncover the past 50 000 years of vegetation history in the Arctic, revealing massive vegetation turnover at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition, with implications for the extinction of megafauna. Furthermore, eDNA can reflect the biodiversity of extant flora and fauna, both qualitatively and quantitatively, allowing detection of rare species. As such, trace studies of plant and vertebrate DNA in the environment have revolutionized our knowledge of biogeography. However, the approach remains marred by biases related to DNA behaviour in environmental settings, incomplete reference databases and false positive results due to contamination. We provide a review of the field. PMID:25487334

  15. Bacteria in ancient sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izzo, G.

    1986-01-01

    In order to ascertain the role of biological activity in ancient sediments, two microbiological studies were carried out. The first was on pleistocenic clay sediments on land, the second on deep oceanic sediments. In the present paper by direct counting the samples is demonstrated the presence of bacteria in a range of 10 5 to 10 7 . Further studies must be carried out to ascertain the activities by in situ incubation methods

  16. Childbirth in ancient Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, Geoffrey

    2004-11-01

    Medicine in ancient Egypt was much more advanced than the rest of the Biblical world, especially in trauma surgery. Care at the time of childbirth was however virtually non-existent. There were no trained obstetricians or midwives but a galaxy of gods were at hand. This article traces what we can piece together about pregnancy of childbirth from the evidence we have in tombs and papyri of Egypt.

  17. Linen in Ancient Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    dr.Rehab Mahmoud Ahmed Elsharnouby

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Egypt was famous through the Ancient Near East for both weaving linen cloth and the produced quantities. Cloth was sent as expensive gifts from one king to another and given to a laborer as wages in return for his work. Cloth was regarded as an essential element in everyday life as it could be used for everything: clothing, bedding, trappings for animals, or sails of a ship. It was in fact one of the most widely used item throughout Ancient Egypt. Although other textile fibers were used in Pharaonic Egypt, namely, sheep's wool, goat hair and a form of coir, the majority of textiles were made from the plant Linum usitatissimum, flax. Cloth made from this fiber is defined as linen. The research starts with a brief definition of the flax, and then reviews the scenes representing the sowing and the harvesting of its seeds. It also focuses on the way of removing the seeds heads, the preparing of the flax for spinning: retting, beating and scutching. After that, it deals with transforming flax into orderly lengths, and rolling it into balls or coils. The researcher as well studies the Ancient Egyptian spinning techniques: grasped spindle, support spindle and drop spinning; the different types of weaving: tabby weaves, basket weaves, tapestry weaves and warps-patterned weave and the types of looms that were in use in Egypt, namely, the horizontal and vertical looms.

  18. The history of researches of forests and forestry in Volyn region

    OpenAIRE

    Yurovchik, Volodymyr

    2017-01-01

    History of forests and forestry in Volyn region from ancient times to the present day is investigated. The extent of human impact on forests is described. The modern problems of forests and forest resources in Volyn region are considered. The system of measures, aimed at ensuring rational use and reproduction of forests and improvement of environmental situation in the region's forests is justified

  19. Suicide in ancient Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laios, K; Tsoukalas, G; Kontaxaki, M-I; Karamanou, M; Androutsos, G

    2014-01-01

    The theme of suicide appears several times in ancient Greek literature. However, each such reference acquires special significance depending on the field from which it originates. Most of the information found in mythology, but the suicide in a mythological tale, although in terms of motivation and mental situation of heroes may be in imitation of similar incidents of real life, in fact is linked with the principles of the ancient Greek religion. In ancient drama and mainly in tragedies suicide conduces to the tragic hypostasis of the heroes and to the evolution of the plot and also is a tool in order to be presented the ideas of poets for the relations of the gods, the relation among gods and men and the relation among the men. In ancient Greek philosophy there were the deniers of suicide, who were more concerned about the impact of suicide on society and also these who accepted it, recognizing the right of the individual to put an end to his life, in order to avoid personal misfortunes. Real suicides will be found mostly from historical sources, but most of them concern leading figures of the ancient world. Closer to the problem of suicide in the everyday life of antiquity are ancient Greek medicines, who studied the phenomenon more general without references to specific incidents. Doctors did not approve in principal the suicide and dealt with it as insane behavior in the development of the mental diseases, of melancholia and mania. They considered that the discrepancy of humors in the organ of logic in the human body will cause malfunction, which will lead to the absurdity and consequently to suicide, either due to excessive concentration of black bile in melancholia or due to yellow bile in mania. They believed that greater risk to commit suicide had women, young people and the elderly. As therapy they used the drugs of their time with the intention to induce calm and repression in the ill person, therefore they mainly used mandragora. In general, we would say

  20. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corr......This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor......, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates...

  1. Bayesian Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berliner, M.

    2017-12-01

    Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.

  2. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

  3. Climate and Ancient Societies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Climate, and human responses to it, have a strongly interconnected relationship. This when climate change occurs, the result of either natural or human causes, societies should react and adapt to these. But do they? If so, what is the nature of that change, and are the responses positive...... or negative for the long-term survival of social groups? In this volume, scholars from diverse disciplines including archaeology, geology and climate sciences explore scientific and material evidence for climate changes in the past, their causes, their effects on ancient societies and how those societies...

  4. Urology in ancient India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakti Das

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The practice of medical and surgical measures in the management of urological ailments prevailed in ancient India from the Vedic era around 3000 BC. Subsequently in the Samhita period, the two stalwarts - Charaka in medicine and Susruta in surgery elevated the art of medicine in India to unprecedented heights. Their elaboration of the etiopathological hypothesis and the medical and surgical treatments of various urological disorders of unparalleled ingenuity still remain valid to some extent in our contemporary understanding. The new generation of accomplished Indian urologists should humbly venerate the legacy of the illustrious pioneers in urology of our motherland.

  5. [Sexuality in Ancient Egypt].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Androutsos, G; Marketos, S

    1994-10-01

    The present article explores the sexuality in ancient Egypt. In particular in this article are presented the ways of concubinage (marriage, concubinage, adultery), the incest, loves of the pharaohs and of the common people, the freedom of choice in garments, the status of the hetairas and of the whores, the sexual perversions (male and female homosexuality, necrophilia, sodomism, bestiality, rape, masturbation, exhibitionism), the operations of the genitals (circumcision, excision, castration) and finally the level of knowledge in gynaecology, fertility, contraception and obstetrics that even today demands our admiration.

  6. Obscuring the ancient artifacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tugrul, B.

    1987-01-01

    Radiography is a non-destructive method which is preferable for ancient artifacts. X-rays, gama rays, beta rays and neutrons can be used for radiography. Differences of them and application materials can be different. In this study, the radiographic techniques are determined with application parameters according to materials of the artifacts, and some interesting examples are given. Therefore, investigation of the artifacts can be realized for definition of physical properties, manufacturing techniques and quality controls of them easily by the application of the radiography. (author)

  7. Mathematics in ancient Greece

    CERN Document Server

    Dantzig, Tobias

    2006-01-01

    More than a history of mathematics, this lively book traces mathematical ideas and processes to their sources, stressing the methods used by the masters of the ancient world. Author Tobias Dantzig portrays the human story behind mathematics, showing how flashes of insight in the minds of certain gifted individuals helped mathematics take enormous forward strides. Dantzig demonstrates how the Greeks organized their precursors' melange of geometric maxims into an elegantly abstract deductive system. He also explains the ways in which some of the famous mathematical brainteasers of antiquity led

  8. Forests of Stone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidow, Beth

    1992-01-01

    Presents a geological tour of Arizona's Petrified Forest National Park, cited as containing the greatest record of life in the Triassic Period. Discusses ancient ecosystems, fossil records, geologic formations, petroglyphs, the Anasazi settlements, Painted Desert, and other park features. Includes an illustration of the fossilization process,…

  9. Forest crimes as a threat to sustainable forest management

    OpenAIRE

    S. Özden; S. Ayan

    2016-01-01

    From ancient times to the present day, forest public relations has been an issue on the agenda. This relationship’s purpose was initially needed for shelter and nutrition; however today this process has changed with urbanization, overpopulation and understanding the new functions of forests. When land ownership became a tool of production, offenses occurred in order to convert forestlands to agricultural lands. So the vast majority of the world’s forests have been lost for this reason. Today,...

  10. Ancient celtic horns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Murray

    2002-11-01

    There is considerable evidence from iconographic and documentary sources that musical lip-reed instruments were important in the early celtic communities of Scotland and Ireland. In recent years several studies have been undertaken with the aim of gaining a better understanding of the musical nature of these ancient horns, and of their place in the life and culture of the time. A valuable source of tangible evidence is to be found in the archaeological remains deposited across Scotland and the whole of Ireland. A project is now under way, under the auspices of the Kilmartin House Trust and the general direction of John Purser, which has brought together an international team of musicians, craftsmen, archaeologists, musicologists and physicists with the aim of analyzing ancient musical artifacts, reconstructing some of the original instruments, and analyzing the sounds they produce. This paper describes acoustical studies carried out on a number of recent reconstructions of wooden and bronze instruments, and discusses the role of acoustics in this type of investigation. [Work supported by Sciart and EPSRC.

  11. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  12. Bayesian logistic regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

  13. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  14. Exploring Ancient Skies A Survey of Ancient and Cultural Astronomy

    CERN Document Server

    Kelley, David H

    2011-01-01

    Exploring Ancient Skies brings together the methods of archaeology and the insights of modern astronomy to explore the science of astronomy as it was practiced in various cultures prior to the invention of the telescope. The book reviews an enormous and growing body of literature on the cultures of the ancient Mediterranean, the Far East, and the New World (particularly Mesoamerica), putting the ancient astronomical materials into their archaeological and cultural contexts. The authors begin with an overview of the field and proceed to essential aspects of naked-eye astronomy, followed by an examination of specific cultures. The book concludes by taking into account the purposes of ancient astronomy: astrology, navigation, calendar regulation, and (not least) the understanding of our place and role in the universe. Skies are recreated to display critical events as they would have appeared to ancient observers—events such as the supernova of 1054 A.D., the "lion horoscope," and the Star of Bethlehem. Explori...

  15. Bayesian optimization for materials science

    CERN Document Server

    Packwood, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

  16. Traditional access and forest management arrangements for beekeeping: the case of Southwest Ethiopia forest region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Endalamaw, T.B.; Wiersum, K.F.

    2009-01-01

    Forest beekeeping is an ancient form of forest exploitation in south west Ethiopia. The practice has continued to the present with a gradual evolution in beekeeping technology and resource access and management arrangements. The aim of the present study is to study traditional forest management

  17. Tamil merchant in ancient Mesopotamia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malliya Gounder Palanichamy

    Full Text Available Recent analyses of ancient Mesopotamian mitochondrial genomes have suggested a genetic link between the Indian subcontinent and Mesopotamian civilization. There is no consensus on the origin of the ancient Mesopotamians. They may be descendants of migrants, who founded regional Mesopotamian groups like that of Terqa or they may be merchants who were involved in trans Mesopotamia trade. To identify the Indian source population showing linkage to the ancient Mesopotamians, we screened a total of 15,751 mitochondrial DNAs (11,432 from the literature and 4,319 from this study representing all major populations of India. Our results although suggest that south India (Tamil Nadu and northeast India served as the source of the ancient Mesopotamian mtDNA gene pool, mtDNA of these ancient Mesopotamians probably contributed by Tamil merchants who were involved in the Indo-Roman trade.

  18. Tamil Merchant in Ancient Mesopotamia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palanichamy, Malliya gounder; Mitra, Bikash; Debnath, Monojit; Agrawal, Suraksha; Chaudhuri, Tapas Kumar; Zhang, Ya-Ping

    2014-01-01

    Recent analyses of ancient Mesopotamian mitochondrial genomes have suggested a genetic link between the Indian subcontinent and Mesopotamian civilization. There is no consensus on the origin of the ancient Mesopotamians. They may be descendants of migrants, who founded regional Mesopotamian groups like that of Terqa or they may be merchants who were involved in trans Mesopotamia trade. To identify the Indian source population showing linkage to the ancient Mesopotamians, we screened a total of 15,751 mitochondrial DNAs (11,432 from the literature and 4,319 from this study) representing all major populations of India. Our results although suggest that south India (Tamil Nadu) and northeast India served as the source of the ancient Mesopotamian mtDNA gene pool, mtDNA of these ancient Mesopotamians probably contributed by Tamil merchants who were involved in the Indo-Roman trade. PMID:25299580

  19. Tamil merchant in ancient Mesopotamia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palanichamy, Malliya Gounder; Mitra, Bikash; Debnath, Monojit; Agrawal, Suraksha; Chaudhuri, Tapas Kumar; Zhang, Ya-Ping

    2014-01-01

    Recent analyses of ancient Mesopotamian mitochondrial genomes have suggested a genetic link between the Indian subcontinent and Mesopotamian civilization. There is no consensus on the origin of the ancient Mesopotamians. They may be descendants of migrants, who founded regional Mesopotamian groups like that of Terqa or they may be merchants who were involved in trans Mesopotamia trade. To identify the Indian source population showing linkage to the ancient Mesopotamians, we screened a total of 15,751 mitochondrial DNAs (11,432 from the literature and 4,319 from this study) representing all major populations of India. Our results although suggest that south India (Tamil Nadu) and northeast India served as the source of the ancient Mesopotamian mtDNA gene pool, mtDNA of these ancient Mesopotamians probably contributed by Tamil merchants who were involved in the Indo-Roman trade.

  20. Ancient Chinese Sundials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Kehui

    Timekeeping was essential in the agricultural society of ancient China. The use of sundials for timekeeping was associated with the use of the gnomon, which had its origin in remote antiquity. This chapter studies three sundials (guiyi 晷仪) from the Qin and Han dynasties, the shorter shadow plane sundial (duanying ping yi 短影平仪) invented by Yuan Chong in the Sui Dynasty, and the sundial chart (guiyingtu 晷影图) invented by Zeng Minxing in the Southern Song dynasty. This chapter also introduces Guo Shoujing's hemispherical sundial (yang yi 仰仪). A circular stone sundial discovered at the Small Wild Goose Pagoda in Xi'an is also mentioned. It is dated from the Sui and Tang dynasties. A brief survey of sundials from the Qing dynasty shows various types of sundials.

  1. Ancient Greek new music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Žužek

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article I use a contextual approach to questions about the revolutionary »new music« in ancient Greece. This view is different from the nowadays most common formalistk view. Rather than analyze textual sources stylistically, I will try to present the available lata in the context of the structure and events of the Athenian society at a tirne when a wave of »new« poetics appeared. In the following discussion it is argued that the »new music« and the phenomena of the destruction of mousiké connected with it are not an esthetical novum, but more a consequence of the change of the discursive practice, where a musical poetry became less important and needless.

  2. Characterization of Ancient Tripitaka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. X. Gong

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Tripitaka is the world’s most comprehensive version of Buddhist sutra. There are limited numbers of Tripitaka currently preserved, most of them present various patterns of degradation. As little is known about the materials and crafts used in Tripitaka, it appeared necessary to identify them, and to further define adapted conservation treatment. In this work, a study concerning the paper source and dyestuff of the Tripitaka from approximate 16th century was carried out using fiber analysis and thin-layer chromatography (TLC. The results proved that the papers were mainly made from hemp or bark of mulberry tree, and indigo was used for colorizing the paper. At the end, we provide with suggestions for protecting and restoring the ancient Tripitaka.

  3. Updating beliefs and combining evidence in adaptive forest management under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Bugmann, Harald

    2013-01-01

    -aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest in the Black Forest, Germany. We simulated forest development under a range of climate change scenarios and forest management alternatives. Our analysis used Bayesian updating and Dempster's rule of combination to simulate how observations of climate and forest...

  4. Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...... in a Matlab toolbox, is demonstrated for non-negative decompositions and compared with non-negative matrix factorization.......In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

  5. Bayesian coronal seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arregui, Iñigo

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to the situation in a laboratory, the study of the solar atmosphere has to be pursued without direct access to the physical conditions of interest. Information is therefore incomplete and uncertain and inference methods need to be employed to diagnose the physical conditions and processes. One of such methods, solar atmospheric seismology, makes use of observed and theoretically predicted properties of waves to infer plasma and magnetic field properties. A recent development in solar atmospheric seismology consists in the use of inversion and model comparison methods based on Bayesian analysis. In this paper, the philosophy and methodology of Bayesian analysis are first explained. Then, we provide an account of what has been achieved so far from the application of these techniques to solar atmospheric seismology and a prospect of possible future extensions.

  6. Bayesian community detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

    2012-09-01

    Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled.

  7. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  8. Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Stephen A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-15

    These are a set of slides about Bayesian hypothesis testing, where many hypotheses are tested. The conclusions are the following: The value of the Bayes factor obtained when using the median of the posterior marginal is almost the minimum value of the Bayes factor. The value of τ2 which minimizes the Bayes factor is a reasonable choice for this parameter. This allows a likelihood ratio to be computed with is the least favorable to H0.

  9. Bayesian networks in reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langseth, Helge [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim (Norway)]. E-mail: helgel@math.ntnu.no; Portinale, Luigi [Department of Computer Science, University of Eastern Piedmont ' Amedeo Avogadro' , 15100 Alessandria (Italy)]. E-mail: portinal@di.unipmn.it

    2007-01-15

    Over the last decade, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become a popular tool for modelling many kinds of statistical problems. We have also seen a growing interest for using BNs in the reliability analysis community. In this paper we will discuss the properties of the modelling framework that make BNs particularly well suited for reliability applications, and point to ongoing research that is relevant for practitioners in reliability.

  10. Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2015-01-01

    A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimental...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....

  11. Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf

  12. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  13. Analysis of ancient silver coins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flament, Christophe; Marchetti, Patrick

    2004-01-01

    Writing from the numismatist point of view, the authors open this paper by reviewing critically the use of scientific methods for the studies of ancient coins. They also report about an application of the PIXE method at low incident proton energy to one of the most celebrated and known coinage in the ancient history: the Athenian silver coins of the fifth century BC. The results of those analyses indicate that the metallic composition of several coins usually taken as ancient imitations of Athenian coins does not differ from that of the genuine ones. Those analyses confirm what the authors have inferred from numismatic sources: These coins are probably genuinely Athenian

  14. Resource Economics and Institutions in Ancient Athens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Brooks

    economic concerns regarding distance-costs to Athens, but also institutional costs of reliably getting the needed timber. We use orbis.stanford.edu and GIS ecological and topographical information as analytical tools for spatial cost-distance from forests to Piraeus to calculate relative costs of transport......Institutional development in ancient Athens ranged from banking and legally recorded and sustained private ownership of a variety of goods and services that enabled domestic and international trade to liturgical mechanisms for procurement of public goods. These institutions in turn provided...... unencumbered, even when direct force or extraction of tribute was not the main mechanism. But no consistent records or other reliable indications point to steady, enforced markets in timber from a given location to Athens. We use resource economic theory to uncover more about timber acquisition in Athens...

  15. Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

    2004-09-01

    ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

  16. Ancient and Current Chaos Theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Güngör Gündüz

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Chaos theories developed in the last three decades have made very important contributions to our understanding of dynamical systems and natural phenomena. The meaning of chaos in the current theories and in the past is somewhat different from each other. In this work, the properties of dynamical systems and the evolution of chaotic systems were discussed in terms of the views of ancient philosophers. The meaning of chaos in Anaximenes’ philosophy and its role in the Ancient natural philosophy has been discussed in relation to other natural philosophers such as of Anaximander, Parmenides, Heraclitus, Empedocles, Leucippus (i.e. atomists and Aristotle. In addition, the fundamental concepts of statistical mechanics and the current chaos theories were discussed in relation to the views in Ancient natural philosophy. The roots of the scientific concepts such as randomness, autocatalysis, nonlinear growth, information, pattern, etc. in the Ancient natural philosophy were investigated.

  17. Sundanese ancient manuscripts search engine using probability approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryani, Mira; Hadi, Setiawan; Paulus, Erick; Nurma Yulita, Intan; Supriatna, Asep K.

    2017-10-01

    Today, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become a regular thing for every aspect of live include cultural and heritage aspect. Sundanese ancient manuscripts as Sundanese heritage are in damage condition and also the information that containing on it. So in order to preserve the information in Sundanese ancient manuscripts and make them easier to search, a search engine has been developed. The search engine must has good computing ability. In order to get the best computation in developed search engine, three types of probabilistic approaches: Bayesian Networks Model, Divergence from Randomness with PL2 distribution, and DFR-PL2F as derivative form DFR-PL2 have been compared in this study. The three probabilistic approaches supported by index of documents and three different weighting methods: term occurrence, term frequency, and TF-IDF. The experiment involved 12 Sundanese ancient manuscripts. From 12 manuscripts there are 474 distinct terms. The developed search engine tested by 50 random queries for three types of query. The experiment results showed that for the single query and multiple query, the best searching performance given by the combination of PL2F approach and TF-IDF weighting method. The performance has been evaluated using average time responds with value about 0.08 second and Mean Average Precision (MAP) about 0.33.

  18. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  19. Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim

    2015-01-01

    This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

  20. Did the ancient Egyptians migrate to ancient Nigeria?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jock M. Agai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Literatures concerning the history of West African peoples published from 1900 to 1970 debate�the possible migrations of the Egyptians into West Africa. Writers like Samuel Johnson and�Lucas Olumide believe that the ancient Egyptians penetrated through ancient Nigeria but Leo�Frobenius and Geoffrey Parrinder frowned at this opinion. Using the works of these early�20th century writers of West African history together with a Yoruba legend which teaches�about the origin of their earliest ancestor(s, this researcher investigates the theories that the�ancient Egyptians had contact with the ancient Nigerians and particularly with the Yorubas.Intradisciplinary and/or interdisciplinary implications: There is an existing ideology�amongst the Yorubas and other writers of Yoruba history that the original ancestors of�the Yorubas originated in ancient Egypt hence there was migration between Egypt and�Yorubaland. This researcher contends that even if there was migration between Egypt and�Nigeria, such migration did not take place during the predynastic and dynastic period as�speculated by some scholars. The subject is open for further research.

  1. Classification using Bayesian neural nets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. Bioch (Cor); O. van der Meer; R. Potharst (Rob)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractRecently, Bayesian methods have been proposed for neural networks to solve regression and classification problems. These methods claim to overcome some difficulties encountered in the standard approach such as overfitting. However, an implementation of the full Bayesian approach to

  2. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  3. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  4. The Bayesian Covariance Lasso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G

    2013-04-01

    Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size ( n ) is less than the dimension ( d ), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data.

  5. Approximate Bayesian computation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Sunnåker

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

  6. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  7. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  8. Bridging the gap between ecosystem theory and forest watershed management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson Webster; Wayne Swank; James Vose; Jennifer Knoepp; Katherine Elliott

    2014-01-01

    The history of forests and logging in North America provides a back drop for our study of Watershed (WS) 7. Prior to European settlement, potentially commercial forests covered approximately 45% of North America, but not all of it was the pristine, ancient forest that some have imagined. Prior to 1492, Native Americans had extensive settlements throughout eastern...

  9. Mitogenomic analyses from ancient DNA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paijmans, Johanna L. A.; Gilbert, Tom; Hofreiter, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The analysis of ancient DNA is playing an increasingly important role in conservation genetic, phylogenetic and population genetic analyses, as it allows incorporating extinct species into DNA sequence trees and adds time depth to population genetics studies. For many years, these types of DNA...... analyses (whether using modern or ancient DNA) were largely restricted to the analysis of short fragments of the mitochondrial genome. However, due to many technological advances during the past decade, a growing number of studies have explored the power of complete mitochondrial genome sequences...... (mitogenomes). Such studies were initially limited to analyses of extant organisms, but developments in both DNA sequencing technologies and general methodological aspects related to working with degraded DNA have resulted in complete mitogenomes becoming increasingly popular for ancient DNA studies as well...

  10. Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B

    2009-04-01

    In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.

  11. Bayesian grid matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2003-01-01

    A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which...... represents the spatial coordinates of the grid nodes. Knowledge of how grid nodes are depicted in the observed image is described through the observation model. The prior consists of a node prior and an arc (edge) prior, both modeled as Gaussian MRFs. The node prior models variations in the positions of grid...... nodes and the arc prior models variations in row and column spacing across the grid. Grid matching is done by placing an initial rough grid over the image and applying an ensemble annealing scheme to maximize the posterior distribution of the grid. The method can be applied to noisy images with missing...

  12. Bayesian supervised dimensionality reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gönen, Mehmet

    2013-12-01

    Dimensionality reduction is commonly used as a preprocessing step before training a supervised learner. However, coupled training of dimensionality reduction and supervised learning steps may improve the prediction performance. In this paper, we introduce a simple and novel Bayesian supervised dimensionality reduction method that combines linear dimensionality reduction and linear supervised learning in a principled way. We present both Gibbs sampling and variational approximation approaches to learn the proposed probabilistic model for multiclass classification. We also extend our formulation toward model selection using automatic relevance determination in order to find the intrinsic dimensionality. Classification experiments on three benchmark data sets show that the new model significantly outperforms seven baseline linear dimensionality reduction algorithms on very low dimensions in terms of generalization performance on test data. The proposed model also obtains the best results on an image recognition task in terms of classification and retrieval performances.

  13. Bayesian Geostatistical Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the use of model-based geostatistics for choosing the set of sampling locations, collectively called the design, to be used in a geostatistical analysis. Two types of design situation are considered. These are retrospective design, which concerns the addition of sampling...... locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...... parameter values are unknown. The results show that in this situation a wide range of interpoint distances should be included in the design, and the widely used regular design is often not the best choice....

  14. Tuberculosis in ancient times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Cilliers

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available In spite of an array of effective antibiotics, tuberculosis is still very common in developing countries where overcrowding, malnutrition and poor hygienic conditions prevail. Over the past 30 years associated HIV infection has worsened the situation by increasing the infection rate and mortality of tuberculosis. Of those diseases caused by a single organism only HIV causes more deaths internationally than tuberculosis. The tubercle bacillus probably first infected man in Neolithic times, and then via infected cattle, but the causative Mycobacteriacea have been in existence for 300 million years. Droplet infection is the most common way of acquiring tuberculosis, although ingestion (e.g. of infected cows’ milk may occur. Tuberculosis probably originated in Africa. The earliest path gnomonic evidence of human tuberculosis in man was found in osteo-archaeological findings of bone tuberculosis (Pott’s disease of the spine in the skeleton of anEgyptian priest from the 21st Dynasty (approximately 1 000 BC. Suggestive but not conclusiveevidence of tuberculotic lesions had been found in even earlier skeletons from Egypt and Europe. Medical hieroglyphics from ancient Egypt are silent on the disease, which could be tuberculosis,as do early Indian and Chinese writings. The Old Testament refers to the disease schachapeth, translated as phthisis in the Greek Septuagint. Although the Bible is not specific about this condition, tuberculosis is still called schachapeth in modern Hebrew. In pre-Hippocratic Greece Homer did not mention phthisis, a word meaning non-specific wasting of the body. However. Alexander of Tralles (6th century BC seemed to narrow the concept down to a specific disease, and in the Hippocratic Corpus (5th-4th centuries BC phthisis can be recognised as tuberculosis. It was predominantly a respiratory disease commonly seen and considered to be caused by an imbalance of bodily humours. It was commonest in autumn, winter and spring

  15. Authenticity in ancient DNA studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gilbert, M Thomas P; Willerslev, Eske

    2006-01-01

    Ancient DNA studies represent a powerful tool that can be used to obtain genetic insights into the past. However, despite the publication of large numbers of apparently successful ancient DNA studies, a number of problems exist with the field that are often ignored. Therefore, questions exist...... as to how reliable the conclusions of many of the published studies are. In this paper we outline first the problems associated with aDNA studies, and secondly present potential guidelines designed so as to enable non-specialist readers the opportunity to critically assess the quality of aDNA publications....

  16. Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials

    CERN Document Server

    Berry, Scott M; Muller, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Already popular in the analysis of medical device trials, adaptive Bayesian designs are increasingly being used in drug development for a wide variety of diseases and conditions, from Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis to obesity, diabetes, hepatitis C, and HIV. Written by leading pioneers of Bayesian clinical trial designs, Bayesian Adaptive Methods for Clinical Trials explores the growing role of Bayesian thinking in the rapidly changing world of clinical trial analysis. The book first summarizes the current state of clinical trial design and analysis and introduces the main ideas and potential benefits of a Bayesian alternative. It then gives an overview of basic Bayesian methodological and computational tools needed for Bayesian clinical trials. With a focus on Bayesian designs that achieve good power and Type I error, the next chapters present Bayesian tools useful in early (Phase I) and middle (Phase II) clinical trials as well as two recent Bayesian adaptive Phase II studies: the BATTLE and ISP...

  17. Mapping The Ancient Maya Landscape From Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sever, Tom; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The Peten region of northern Guatemala is one of the last places on earth where major archeological sites remain to be discovered. It was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared. Remote sensing technology is helping to locate and map ancient Maya sites that are threatened today by accelerating deforestation and looting. Thematic Mapper and IKONOS satellite and airborne Star3-I radar data, combined with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, are successfully detecting ancient Maya features such as cities, roadways, canals, and water reservoirs. Satellite imagery is also being used to map the bajos, which are seasonally flooded swamps that cover over 40% of the land surface. The use of bajos for farming has been a source of debate within the professional community for many years. But the recent detection and verification of cultural features within the bajo system by our research team are providing conclusive evidence that the ancient Maya had adapted well to wetland environments from the earliest times and utilized them until the time of the Maya collapse. The use of the bajos for farming is also an important resource for the future of the current inhabitants who are experiencing rapid population growth. Remote sensing imagery is also demonstrating that in the Preclassic period (600 BC- AD 250), the Maya had already achieved a high organizational level as evidenced by the construction of massive temples and an elaborate inter-connecting roadway system. Although they experienced several setbacks such as droughts and hurricanes, the Maya nevertheless managed the delicate forest ecosystem successfully for several centuries. However, around AD 800, something happened to the Maya to cause their rapid decline and eventual disappearance from the region. The evidence indicates that at this time there was increased climatic dryness, extensive deforestation, overpopulation, and widespread warfare. This raises a question that

  18. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  19. Ancient medicine--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuskin, Eugenija; Lipozencić, Jasna; Pucarin-Cvetković, Jasna; Mustajbegović, Jadranka; Schachter, Neil; Mucić-Pucić, Branka; Neralić-Meniga, Inja

    2008-01-01

    Different aspects of medicine and/or healing in several societies are presented. In the ancient times as well as today medicine has been closely related to magic, science and religion. Various ancient societies and cultures had developed different views of medicine. It was believed that a human being has two bodies: a visible body that belongs to the earth and an invisible body of heaven. In the earliest prehistoric days, a different kind of medicine was practiced in countries such as Egypt, Greece, Rome, Mesopotamia, India, Tibet, China, and others. In those countries, "medicine people" practiced medicine from the magic to modern physical practices. Medicine was magical and mythological, and diseases were attributed mostly to the supernatural forces. The foundation of modern medicine can be traced back to ancient Greeks. Tibetan culture, for instance, even today, combines spiritual and practical medicine. Chinese medicine developed as a concept of yin and yang, acupuncture and acupressure, and it has even been used in the modern medicine. During medieval Europe, major universities and medical schools were established. In the ancient time, before hospitals had developed, patients were treated mostly in temples.

  20. Ancient woodland boundaries in Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Szabó, Péter

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 2 (2010), s. 205-214 ISSN 0305-7488 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA600050812 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : ancient woodland * historical ecology * landscape archaeology Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 0.983, year: 2010

  1. Ancient genes of Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veiga-Crespo, P; Poza, M; Prieto-Alcedo, M; Villa, T G

    2004-07-01

    Amber is a plant resin mainly produced by coniferous trees that, after entrapping a variety of living beings, was subjected to a process of fossilization until it turned into yellowish, translucent stones. It is also one of the best sources of ancient DNA on which to perform studies on evolution. Here a method for the sterilization of amber that allows reliable ancient DNA extraction with no actual DNA contamination is described. Working with insects taken from amber, it was possible to amplify the ATP9, PGU1 and rRNA18S ancient genes of Saccharomyces cerevisiae corresponding to samples from the Miocene and Oligocene. After comparison of the current genes with their ancient (up to 35-40 million years) counterparts it was concluded that essential genes such as rRNA18S are highly conserved and that even normal 'house-keeping' genes, such as PGU1, are strikingly conserved along the millions of years that S. cerevisiae has evolved.

  2. The ancient art of memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Allan

    2013-12-01

    Revision of Freud's theory requires a new way of seeking dream meaning. With the idea of elaborative encoding, Sue Llewellyn has provided a method of dream interpretation that takes into account both modern sleep science and the ancient art of memory. Her synthesis is elegant and compelling. But is her hypothesis testable?

  3. The Echoes of Ancient Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watzman, Haim

    2006-01-01

    Several artifacts found at the Gesher Benot Ya'aqov, or Daughters of Jacob Bridge, archaeological site in Israel provide a picture of ancient human ancestors that is different from the once accepted by most scholars. The discoveries by Israeli archaeologist Naama Goren-Inbar suggest that humans developed language and other key abilities far…

  4. The eye and its diseases in Ancient Egypt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, S. Ry

    1997-01-01

    Ophthalmology, History of ophthalmology, eyes in the Ancient Egypt, eye disease in Ancient Egypt, porotic hyperostosis, mummification......Ophthalmology, History of ophthalmology, eyes in the Ancient Egypt, eye disease in Ancient Egypt, porotic hyperostosis, mummification...

  5. Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

  6. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    OpenAIRE

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...

  7. Ancient and Modern Coins Unit Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United States Mint (Dept. of Treasury), Washington, DC.

    Ancient times comes to life when a student can hold in his/her hand or read about an artifact, such as a coin of the Greek or Roman era. Students are familiar with coins, and this commonality helps them understand the similarities and differences between their lives and times in ancient Greece or Rome. Many symbols on the ancient coins can be…

  8. Dreams in ancient Greek Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laios, K; Moschos, M M; Koukaki, E; Vasilopoulos, E; Karamanou, M; Kontaxaki, M-I; Androutsos, G

    2016-01-01

    Dreams preoccupied the Greek and Roman world in antiquity, therefore they had a prominent role in social, philosophical, religious, historical and political life of those times. They were considered as omens and prophetic signs of future events in private and public life, and that was particularly accentuated when elements of actions which took place in the plot of dreams were associated directly or indirectly with real events. This is why it was important to use them in divination, and helped the growth of superstition and folklore believes. Medicine as a science and an anthropocentric art, could not ignore the importance of dreams, having in mind their popularity in antiquity. In ancient Greek medicine dreams can be divided into two basic categories. In the first one -which is related to religious medicine-dreams experienced by religionists are classified, when resorted to great religious sanctuaries such as those of Asclepius (Asclepieia) and Amphiaraos (Amfiaraeia). These dreams were the essential element for healing in this form of religious medicine, because after pilgrims underwent purifications they went to sleep in a special dwelling of the sanctuaries called "enkoimeterion" (Greek: the place to sleep) so that the healing god would come to their dreams either to cure them or to suggest treatment. In ancient Greek literature there are many reports of these experiences, but if there may be phenomena of self-suggestion, or they could be characterized as propaganda messages from the priesthood of each sanctuary for advertising purposes. The other category concerns the references about dreams found in ancient Greek medical literature, where one can find the attempts of ancient Greek physicians to interpret these dreams in a rational way as sings either of a corporal disease or of psychological distress. This second category will be the object of our study. Despite the different ways followed by each ancient Greek physician in order to explain dreams, their

  9. Bayesian non parametric modelling of Higgs pair production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scarpa Bruno

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistical classification models are commonly used to separate a signal from a background. In this talk we face the problem of isolating the signal of Higgs pair production using the decay channel in which each boson decays into a pair of b-quarks. Typically in this context non parametric methods are used, such as Random Forests or different types of boosting tools. We remain in the same non-parametric framework, but we propose to face the problem following a Bayesian approach. A Dirichlet process is used as prior for the random effects in a logit model which is fitted by leveraging the Polya-Gamma data augmentation. Refinements of the model include the insertion in the simple model of P-splines to relate explanatory variables with the response and the use of Bayesian trees (BART to describe the atoms in the Dirichlet process.

  10. Ancient DNA from marine mammals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foote, Andrew David; Hofreiter, Michael; Morin, Philip A.

    2012-01-01

    discuss studies recon- structing inter- and intra-specific phylogenies from aDNA sequences and discuss how aDNA sequences could be used to estimate mutation rates. Finally, we highlight some of the problems of aDNA studies on marine mammals, such as obtaining sufficient sample sizes and calibrating...... such as bone, tooth, baleen, skin, fur, whiskers and scrimshaw using ancient DNA (aDNA) approaches provide an oppor- tunity for investigating such changes over evolutionary and ecological timescales. Here, we review the application of aDNA techniques to the study of marine mammals. Most of the studies have...... focused on detecting changes in genetic diversity following periods of exploitation and environmental change. To date, these studies have shown that even small sample sizes can provide useful information on historical genetic diversity. Ancient DNA has also been used in investigations of changes...

  11. Bayesian seismic AVO inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buland, Arild

    2002-07-01

    A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S

  12. Bayesian microsaccade detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihali, Andra; van Opheusden, Bas; Ma, Wei Ji

    2017-01-01

    Microsaccades are high-velocity fixational eye movements, with special roles in perception and cognition. The default microsaccade detection method is to determine when the smoothed eye velocity exceeds a threshold. We have developed a new method, Bayesian microsaccade detection (BMD), which performs inference based on a simple statistical model of eye positions. In this model, a hidden state variable changes between drift and microsaccade states at random times. The eye position is a biased random walk with different velocity distributions for each state. BMD generates samples from the posterior probability distribution over the eye state time series given the eye position time series. Applied to simulated data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with fewer errors than alternative algorithms, especially at high noise. Applied to EyeLink eye tracker data, BMD detects almost all the microsaccades detected by the default method, but also apparent microsaccades embedded in high noise—although these can also be interpreted as false positives. Next we apply the algorithms to data collected with a Dual Purkinje Image eye tracker, whose higher precision justifies defining the inferred microsaccades as ground truth. When we add artificial measurement noise, the inferences of all algorithms degrade; however, at noise levels comparable to EyeLink data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with 54% fewer errors than the default algorithm. Though unsuitable for online detection, BMD has other advantages: It returns probabilities rather than binary judgments, and it can be straightforwardly adapted as the generative model is refined. We make our algorithm available as a software package. PMID:28114483

  13. Colour Perception in Ancient World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesterov, D. I.; Fedorova, M. Yu

    2017-11-01

    How did the human thought form the surrounding color information into the persistent semantic images of a mythological, pseudoscientific and religious nature? The concepts associated with colour perception are suggested. The existence of colour environment does not depend on the human consciousness. The colour culture formation is directly related to the level of the human consciousness development and the possibility to influence the worldview and culture. The colour perception of a person goes through the stages similar to the development of colour vision in a child. Like any development, the colour consciousness has undergone stages of growth and decline, evolution and stagnation. The way of life and difficult conditions for existence made their own adjustments to the development of the human perception of the surrounding world. Wars have been both a powerful engine of progress in all spheres of life and a great destructive force demolishing the already created and preserved heritage. The surrounding world has always been interesting for humans, evoked images and fantasies in the consciousness of ancient people. Unusual and inexplicable natural phenomena spawned numerous legends and myths which was reflected in the ancient art and architecture and, accordingly, in a certain manifestation of colour in the human society. The colour perception of the ancient man, his pragmatic, utilitarian attitude to colour is considered as well as the influence of dependence on external conditions of existence and their reflection in the colour culture of antiquity. “Natural Science” conducts research in the field of the colour nature and their authorial interpretation of the Hellenic period. Several authorial concepts of the ancient world have been considered.

  14. Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

    2018-02-01

    Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. An investigation into the ancient abortion laws: comparing ancient Persia with ancient Greece and Rome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarmohammadi, Hassan; Zargaran, Arman; Vatanpour, Azadeh; Abedini, Ehsan; Adhami, Siamak

    2013-01-01

    Since the dawn of medicine, medical rights and ethics have always been one of mankind's concerns. In any civilisation, attention paid to medical laws and ethics depends on the progress of human values and the advancement of medical science. The history of various civilisations teaches that each had its own views on medical ethics, but most had something in common. Ancient civilisations such as Greece, Rome, or Assyria did not consider the foetus to be alive and therefore to have human rights. In contrast, ancient Persians valued the foetus as a living person equal to others. Accordingly, they brought laws against abortion, even in cases of sexual abuse. Furthermore, abortion was considered to be a murder and punishments were meted out to the mother, father, and the person performing it.

  16. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  17. Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Ntzoufras, Ioannis

    2009-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

  18. 3D Bayesian contextual classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    2000-01-01

    We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....

  19. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary...... configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for the salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  20. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary...... configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  1. Bayesian variable selection in regression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, T.J.; Beauchamp, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the selection of subsets of ''predictor'' variables in a linear regression model for the prediction of a ''dependent'' variable. We take a Bayesian approach and assign a probability distribution to the dependent variable through a specification of prior distributions for the unknown parameters in the regression model. The appropriate posterior probabilities are derived for each submodel and methods are proposed for evaluating the family of prior distributions. Examples are given that show the application of the Bayesian methodology. 23 refs., 3 figs.

  2. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees a...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....... and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last...

  3. Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda Hernández

    2015-12-01

    In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

  4. Bayesian variable order Markov models: Towards Bayesian predictive state representations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimitrakakis, C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a Bayesian variable order Markov model that shares many similarities with predictive state representations. The resulting models are compact and much easier to specify and learn than classical predictive state representations. Moreover, we show that they significantly outperform a more

  5. The humble Bayesian : Model checking from a fully Bayesian perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Romeijn, Jan-Willem; Rouder, Jeffrey N.

    Gelman and Shalizi (2012) criticize what they call the usual story in Bayesian statistics: that the distribution over hypotheses or models is the sole means of statistical inference, thus excluding model checking and revision, and that inference is inductivist rather than deductivist. They present

  6. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  7. Bayesian models in cognitive neuroscience: A tutorial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O'Reilly, J.X.; Mars, R.B.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter provides an introduction to Bayesian models and their application in cognitive neuroscience. The central feature of Bayesian models, as opposed to other classes of models, is that Bayesian models represent the beliefs of an observer as probability distributions, allowing them to

  8. A Bayesian framework for risk perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erp, H.R.N.

    2017-01-01

    We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

  9. The conscious of Nightmares in ancient China

    OpenAIRE

    西林, 眞紀子

    2006-01-01

    The analaysis concerns Nightmares in ancient China. People in ancient China were very afraid of Nightmares. Nightmares are described in the『春秋左氏傳』etc. The exocis Nightmares is described in the『周禮』. The ceremony "難" of exocis Nightmares in the『禮記』. In the characters Meng (夢) had the conscious of Nightmares in ancient China. The analaysis is about the characters 'Meng', about the characters of the relationship 'Meng'

  10. The Ancient Greece's roots of Olimpism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bubka Sergej Nazarovich

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper focused on the phenomena of sport in Ancient Greece along with history, traditions, religion, education, culture and art. Economic and political conditions are analysed which promote or hamper development of Olympic Games in Ancient Greece. Exceptional stability of Ancient Olympic games during more than eleven centuries are noted as well as their influence on the life of Greek polices of those days. Hellenistic period needs of individual consideration.

  11. High-Throughput DNA sequencing of ancient wood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Stefanie; Lagane, Frédéric; Seguin-Orlando, Andaine; Schubert, Mikkel; Leroy, Thibault; Guichoux, Erwan; Chancerel, Emilie; Bech-Hebelstrup, Inger; Bernard, Vincent; Billard, Cyrille; Billaud, Yves; Bolliger, Matthias; Croutsch, Christophe; Čufar, Katarina; Eynaud, Frédérique; Heussner, Karl Uwe; Köninger, Joachim; Langenegger, Fabien; Leroy, Frédéric; Lima, Christine; Martinelli, Nicoletta; Momber, Garry; Billamboz, André; Nelle, Oliver; Palomo, Antoni; Piqué, Raquel; Ramstein, Marianne; Schweichel, Roswitha; Stäuble, Harald; Tegel, Willy; Terradas, Xavier; Verdin, Florence; Plomion, Christophe; Kremer, Antoine; Orlando, Ludovic

    2018-03-01

    Reconstructing the colonization and demographic dynamics that gave rise to extant forests is essential to forecasts of forest responses to environmental changes. Classical approaches to map how population of trees changed through space and time largely rely on pollen distribution patterns, with only a limited number of studies exploiting DNA molecules preserved in wooden tree archaeological and subfossil remains. Here, we advance such analyses by applying high-throughput (HTS) DNA sequencing to wood archaeological and subfossil material for the first time, using a comprehensive sample of 167 European white oak waterlogged remains spanning a large temporal (from 550 to 9,800 years) and geographical range across Europe. The successful characterization of the endogenous DNA and exogenous microbial DNA of 140 (~83%) samples helped the identification of environmental conditions favouring long-term DNA preservation in wood remains, and started to unveil the first trends in the DNA decay process in wood material. Additionally, the maternally inherited chloroplast haplotypes of 21 samples from three periods of forest human-induced use (Neolithic, Bronze Age and Middle Ages) were found to be consistent with those of modern populations growing in the same geographic areas. Our work paves the way for further studies aiming at using ancient DNA preserved in wood to reconstruct the micro-evolutionary response of trees to climate change and human forest management. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Ancient Indian Leaps into Mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Yadav, B S

    2011-01-01

    This book presents contributions of mathematicians covering topics from ancient India, placing them in the broader context of the history of mathematics. Although the translations of some Sanskrit mathematical texts are available in the literature, Indian contributions are rarely presented in major Western historical works. Yet some of the well-known and universally-accepted discoveries from India, including the concept of zero and the decimal representation of numbers, have made lasting contributions to the foundation of modern mathematics. Through a systematic approach, this book examines th

  13. Aiding the Interpretation of Ancient Documents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roued-Cunliffe, Henriette

    How can Decision Support System (DSS) software aid the interpretation process involved in the reading of ancient documents? This paper discusses the development of a DSS prototype for the reading of ancient texts. In this context the term ‘ancient documents’ is used to describe mainly Greek...... tool it is important first to comprehend the interpretation process involved in reading ancient documents. This is not a linear process but rather a recursive process where the scholar moves between different levels of reading, such as ‘understanding the meaning of a character’ or ‘understanding...

  14. The History and Practice of Ancient Astronomy

    CERN Document Server

    Evans, James

    1998-01-01

    The History and Practice of Ancient Astronomy combines new scholarship with hands-on science to bring readers into direct contact with the work of ancient astronomers. While tracing ideas from ancient Babylon to sixteenth-century Europe, the book places its greatest emphasis on the Greek period, when astronomers developed the geometric and philosophical ideas that have determined the subsequent character of Western astronomy. The author approaches this history through the concrete details of ancient astronomical practice. Carefully organized and generously illustrated, the book can teach reade

  15. Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about

  16. Bayesian networks in levee reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roscoe, K.; Hanea, A.

    2015-01-01

    We applied a Bayesian network to a system of levees for which the results of traditional reliability analysis showed high failure probabilities, which conflicted with the intuition and experience of those managing the levees. We made use of forty proven strength observations - high water levels with

  17. Bayesian Classification of Image Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic...... dimensionality. The built classi er is tested on standard and non-standard images...

  18. Computational Neuropsychology and Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parr, Thomas; Rees, Geraint; Friston, Karl J

    2018-01-01

    Computational theories of brain function have become very influential in neuroscience. They have facilitated the growth of formal approaches to disease, particularly in psychiatric research. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the body of computational research addressing neuropsychological syndromes, and focus on those that employ Bayesian frameworks. Bayesian approaches to understanding brain function formulate perception and action as inferential processes. These inferences combine 'prior' beliefs with a generative (predictive) model to explain the causes of sensations. Under this view, neuropsychological deficits can be thought of as false inferences that arise due to aberrant prior beliefs (that are poor fits to the real world). This draws upon the notion of a Bayes optimal pathology - optimal inference with suboptimal priors - and provides a means for computational phenotyping. In principle, any given neuropsychological disorder could be characterized by the set of prior beliefs that would make a patient's behavior appear Bayes optimal. We start with an overview of some key theoretical constructs and use these to motivate a form of computational neuropsychology that relates anatomical structures in the brain to the computations they perform. Throughout, we draw upon computational accounts of neuropsychological syndromes. These are selected to emphasize the key features of a Bayesian approach, and the possible types of pathological prior that may be present. They range from visual neglect through hallucinations to autism. Through these illustrative examples, we review the use of Bayesian approaches to understand the link between biology and computation that is at the heart of neuropsychology.

  19. Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caspar Mathias Goeke

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

  20. Application of neutron activation analysis in study of ancient ceramics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Guoxia; Zhao Weijuan; Gao Zhengyao; Xie Jianzhong; Huang Zhongxiang; Jia Xiuqin; Han Song

    2000-01-01

    Trace-elements in ancient ceramics and imitative ancient ceramics were determined by neutron activation analysis (NAA). The NAA data are then analyzed by fuzzy cluster method and the trend cluster diagram is obtained. The raw material sources of ancient ceramics and imitative ancient ceramics are determined. The path for improving quality of imitative ancient ceramics is found

  1. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

    1998-12-01

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  2. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  3. Polytomies and Bayesian phylogenetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Paul O; Holder, Mark T; Holsinger, Kent E

    2005-04-01

    Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short branch lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

  4. Forest hydrology in China: introduction to the featured collection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Shirong Liu; Zhiqiang Zhang; Xiaohua Wei

    2008-01-01

    Chinese people have long recognized the importance of forests and water in environment, societal development, and civilization. The philosophical thoughts are well reflected in many ancient paintings and stories that picture the harmony of forests, water, and mountains, and in fact, well-respected Chinese rulers are known for their contributions to harnessing large...

  5. Foreign Guests in Ancient Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zora Žbontar

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Xenía was a special relationship between a foreign guest and his host in Ancient Greece. The ritual of hosting a foreigner included an exchange of objects, feasting, and the establishment of friendship between people from different social backgrounds. This relationship implied trust, loyalty, friendship, and mutual aid between the people involved. Goods and services were also exchanged without any form of payment. There were no formal laws governing xenía – it was based entirely on a moral appeal. Mutual appreciation between the host and the guest was established during the ritual, but the host did retain a certain level of superiority over the guest. Xenía was one of the most important institutions in Ancient Greece. It had a lot of features and obligations similar to kinship and marriage. In literary sources the word xénos varies in meaning from “enemy stranger”, “friendly stranger”, “foreigner”, “guest”, “host” to “ritual friend”, and it is often hard to tell which usage is appropriate in a given passage. The paper describes the emphasis on hospitality towards foreigners. It presents an example of a depiction indicating xenía is presented, as well as several objects which were traded during the ritual. The paper also addresses the importance of hospitality in Greek drama in general, especially with examples of violations of the hospitality code.

  6. Chemical compositions of ancient coins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mabuchi, Hisao; Notsu, Kenji; Nishimatsu, Shigeyoshi; Fuwa, Keiichiro; Iyama, Hiroyuki.

    1979-01-01

    Chemical composition of ancient coins may be useful to know the provenance of raw ore materials, technique of minting, route of circulation, and governmental policy or economical conditions of the epoch when they were minted. Thirteen elements (major: Cu, Pb, Sn, Zn, minor: Fe, As, Sb, trace: Co, Mn, Ni, Au, Ag, Se) in Chinese and Japanese ancient coins were determined by inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy and instrumental neutron activation analysis. The results show that, in both Chinese and Japanese coins, a transition from Cu-Pb-Sn system to Cu-Zn system occurred in the 15 -- 16 th century in China and in the 18 th century in Japan. Compositional ranges in Cu-Pb-Sn coins extend to 50 -- 80% Cu, 15 -- 35% Pb and 6 -- 15% Sn, respectively, and there seems to be no systematic compositional change with a function of their ages. As to the Cu-Zn coins, the Cu to Zn ratio of Chinese coins is distinctly different from that of Japanese ones, being about unity for Chinese coins and 4 for Japanese ones. In general, Japanese coins are much more abundant in As and Sb than Chinese ones. It is an important problem whether they are impurities of major elements or some components intentionally added in the course of minting. (author)

  7. Ancient Climatic Architectural Design Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasibeh Faghih

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ancient climatic architecture had found out a series of appropriate responses for the best compatibility with the critical climate condition for instance, designing ‘earth sheltered houses’ and ‘courtyard houses’. They could provide human climatic comfort without excessive usage of fossil fuel resources. Owing to the normal thermal conditions in the ground depth, earth sheltered houses can be slightly affected by thermal fluctuations due to being within the earth. In depth further than 6.1 meters, temperature alternation is minute during the year, equaling to average annual temperature of outside. More to the point, courtyard buildings as another traditional design approach, have prepared controlled climatic space based on creating the maximum shade in the summer and maximum solar heat absorption in the winter. The courtyard houses served the multiple functions of lighting to the rooms, acting as a heat absorber in the summer and a radiator in the winter, as well as providing an open space inside for community activities. It must be noted that they divided into summer and winter zones located in south and north of the central courtyard where residents were replaced into them according to changing the seasons. Therefore, Ancient climatic buildings provided better human thermal comfort in comparison with the use contemporary buildings of recent years, except with the air conditioning

  8. A bayesian hierarchical model for spatio-temporal prediction and uncertainty assessment using repeat LiDAR acquisitions for the Kenai Peninsula, AK, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chad Babcock; Hans Andersen; Andrew O. Finley; Bruce D. Cook

    2015-01-01

    Models leveraging repeat LiDAR and field collection campaigns may be one possible mechanism to monitor carbon flux in remote forested regions. Here, we look to the spatio-temporally data-rich Kenai Peninsula in Alaska, USA to examine the potential for Bayesian spatio-temporal mapping of terrestrial forest carbon storage and uncertainty.

  9. Water and sustainable land use at the ancient tropical city of Tikal, Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarborough, Vernon L; Dunning, Nicholas P; Tankersley, Kenneth B; Carr, Christopher; Weaver, Eric; Grazioso, Liwy; Lane, Brian; Jones, John G; Buttles, Palma; Valdez, Fred; Lentz, David L

    2012-07-31

    The access to water and the engineered landscapes accommodating its collection and allocation are pivotal issues for assessing sustainability. Recent mapping, sediment coring, and formal excavation at Tikal, Guatemala, have markedly expanded our understanding of ancient Maya water and land use. Among the landscape and engineering feats identified are the largest ancient dam identified in the Maya area of Central America; the posited manner by which reservoir waters were released; construction of a cofferdam for dredging the largest reservoir at Tikal; the presence of ancient springs linked to the initial colonization of Tikal; the use of sand filtration to cleanse water entering reservoirs; a switching station that facilitated seasonal filling and release; and the deepest rock-cut canal segment in the Maya Lowlands. These engineering achievements were integrated into a system that sustained the urban complex through deep time, and they have implications for sustainable construction and use of water management systems in tropical forest settings worldwide.

  10. Bayesian methods for measures of agreement

    CERN Document Server

    Broemeling, Lyle D

    2009-01-01

    Using WinBUGS to implement Bayesian inferences of estimation and testing hypotheses, Bayesian Methods for Measures of Agreement presents useful methods for the design and analysis of agreement studies. It focuses on agreement among the various players in the diagnostic process.The author employs a Bayesian approach to provide statistical inferences based on various models of intra- and interrater agreement. He presents many examples that illustrate the Bayesian mode of reasoning and explains elements of a Bayesian application, including prior information, experimental information, the likelihood function, posterior distribution, and predictive distribution. The appendices provide the necessary theoretical foundation to understand Bayesian methods as well as introduce the fundamentals of programming and executing the WinBUGS software.Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, this hands-on book explores numerous measures of agreement, including the Kappa coefficient, the G coefficient, and intraclass correlation...

  11. Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

  12. A guide to ancient protein studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendy, Jessica; Welker, Frido; Demarchi, Beatrice

    2018-01-01

    the phylogenetic reconstruction of extinct species to the investigation of past human diets and ancient diseases. However, there is no explicit consensus at present regarding standards for data reporting, data validation measures or the use of suitable contamination controls in ancient protein studies...

  13. On Ancient Babylonian Algebra and Geometry

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Introduction. In an earlier article [1] we had discussed some aspects of ancient Babylonian mathematics as deciphered froIn various clay tablets excavated from modern Iraq, viz. the Pythagoras theorem and also the sexagesimal num- ber system prevalent during the ancient Mesopotamian civilization. In this article, we study ...

  14. Attitudes Toward Deviant Sex in Ancient Mesopotamia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullough, Vern L.

    1971-01-01

    The article concludes that the whole question of sexual life in ancient Mesopotamia is difficult to reconstruct and fraught with many uncertainties. Nevertheless, it seems certain that the ancient Mesopotamians had fewer prohibitions against sex than our own civilization, and regarded as acceptable many practices which later societies condemned.…

  15. Mechanisms in ancient Chinese books with illustrations

    CERN Document Server

    Hsiao, Kuo-Hung

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a unique approach for studying mechanisms and machines with drawings that were depicted unclearly in ancient Chinese books. The historical, cultural and technical backgrounds of the mechanisms are explained, and various mechanisms described and illustrated in ancient books are introduced. By utilizing the idea for the conceptual design of modern mechanisms, all feasible designs of ancient mechanisms with uncertain members and joints that meet the technical standards of the subjects’ time periods are synthesized systematically. Ancient Chinese crossbows (the original crossbow and repeating crossbows), textile mechanisms (silk-reeling mechanism, spinning mechanisms, and looms), and many other artisan's tool mechanisms are used as illustrated examples.  Such an approach provides a logical method for the reconstruction designs of ancient mechanisms with uncertain structures. It also provides an innovative direction for researchers to further identify the original structures of mechanisms...

  16. Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

    2010-12-01

    Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

  17. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2014-01-01

    This article considers Bayesian model averaging as a means of addressing uncertainty in the selection of variables in the propensity score equation. We investigate an approximate Bayesian model averaging approach based on the model-averaged propensity score estimates produced by the R package BMA but that ignores uncertainty in the propensity score. We also provide a fully Bayesian model averaging approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (MCMC) to account for uncertainty in both parameters and models. A detailed study of our approach examines the differences in the causal estimate when incorporating noninformative versus informative priors in the model averaging stage. We examine these approaches under common methods of propensity score implementation. In addition, we evaluate the impact of changing the size of Occam's window used to narrow down the range of possible models. We also assess the predictive performance of both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches and compare it with the case without Bayesian model averaging. Overall, results show that both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches recover the treatment effect estimates well and generally provide larger uncertainty estimates, as expected. Both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer slightly better prediction of the propensity score compared with the Bayesian approach with a single propensity score equation. Covariate balance checks for the case study show that both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer good balance. The fully Bayesian model averaging approach also provides posterior probability intervals of the balance indices.

  18. Pedestrian dynamics via Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkat, Ibrahim; Khader, Ahamad Tajudin; Subramanian, K. G.

    2014-06-01

    Studies on pedestrian dynamics have vital applications in crowd control management relevant to organizing safer large scale gatherings including pilgrimages. Reasoning pedestrian motion via computational intelligence techniques could be posed as a potential research problem within the realms of Artificial Intelligence. In this contribution, we propose a "Bayesian Network Model for Pedestrian Dynamics" (BNMPD) to reason the vast uncertainty imposed by pedestrian motion. With reference to key findings from literature which include simulation studies, we systematically identify: What are the various factors that could contribute to the prediction of crowd flow status? The proposed model unifies these factors in a cohesive manner using Bayesian Networks (BNs) and serves as a sophisticated probabilistic tool to simulate vital cause and effect relationships entailed in the pedestrian domain.

  19. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...... primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples...

  20. BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.

  1. Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

    2015-01-01

    Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259

  2. Bayesian analyses of cognitive architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houpt, Joseph W; Heathcote, Andrew; Eidels, Ami

    2017-06-01

    The question of cognitive architecture-how cognitive processes are temporally organized-has arisen in many areas of psychology. This question has proved difficult to answer, with many proposed solutions turning out to be spurious. Systems factorial technology (Townsend & Nozawa, 1995) provided the first rigorous empirical and analytical method of identifying cognitive architecture, using the survivor interaction contrast (SIC) to determine when people are using multiple sources of information in parallel or in series. Although the SIC is based on rigorous nonparametric mathematical modeling of response time distributions, for many years inference about cognitive architecture has relied solely on visual assessment. Houpt and Townsend (2012) recently introduced null hypothesis significance tests, and here we develop both parametric and nonparametric (encompassing prior) Bayesian inference. We show that the Bayesian approaches can have considerable advantages. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosper Harrison B.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

  4. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  5. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  6. Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2015-01-01

    are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multiview data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....

  7. Reliability analysis with Bayesian networks

    OpenAIRE

    Zwirglmaier, Kilian Martin

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) represent a probabilistic modeling tool with large potential for reliability engineering. While BNs have been successfully applied to reliability engineering, there are remaining issues, some of which are addressed in this work. Firstly a classification of BN elicitation approaches is proposed. Secondly two approximate inference approaches, one of which is based on discretization and the other one on sampling, are proposed. These approaches are applicable to hybrid/con...

  8. Interim Bayesian Persuasion: First Steps

    OpenAIRE

    Perez, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    This paper makes a first attempt at building a theory of interim Bayesian persuasion. I work in a minimalist model where a low or high type sender seeks validation from a receiver who is willing to validate high types exclusively. After learning her type, the sender chooses a complete conditional information structure for the receiver from a possibly restricted feasible set. I suggest a solution to this game that takes into account the signaling potential of the sender's choice.

  9. Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2002-01-01

    . This allows for a Bayesian formulation of the indicators whereby the experience and expertise of the inspection personnel may be fully utilized and consistently updated as frequentistic information is collected. The approach is illustrated on an example considering a concrete structure subject to corrosion....... It is shown how half-cell potential measurements may be utilized to update the probability of excessive repair after 50 years....

  10. Computational Neuropsychology and Bayesian Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Parr

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Computational theories of brain function have become very influential in neuroscience. They have facilitated the growth of formal approaches to disease, particularly in psychiatric research. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the body of computational research addressing neuropsychological syndromes, and focus on those that employ Bayesian frameworks. Bayesian approaches to understanding brain function formulate perception and action as inferential processes. These inferences combine ‘prior’ beliefs with a generative (predictive model to explain the causes of sensations. Under this view, neuropsychological deficits can be thought of as false inferences that arise due to aberrant prior beliefs (that are poor fits to the real world. This draws upon the notion of a Bayes optimal pathology – optimal inference with suboptimal priors – and provides a means for computational phenotyping. In principle, any given neuropsychological disorder could be characterized by the set of prior beliefs that would make a patient’s behavior appear Bayes optimal. We start with an overview of some key theoretical constructs and use these to motivate a form of computational neuropsychology that relates anatomical structures in the brain to the computations they perform. Throughout, we draw upon computational accounts of neuropsychological syndromes. These are selected to emphasize the key features of a Bayesian approach, and the possible types of pathological prior that may be present. They range from visual neglect through hallucinations to autism. Through these illustrative examples, we review the use of Bayesian approaches to understand the link between biology and computation that is at the heart of neuropsychology.

  11. Bayesian methods applied to GWAS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernando, Rohan L; Garrick, Dorian

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian multiple-regression methods are being successfully used for genomic prediction and selection. These regression models simultaneously fit many more markers than the number of observations available for the analysis. Thus, the Bayes theorem is used to combine prior beliefs of marker effects, which are expressed in terms of prior distributions, with information from data for inference. Often, the analyses are too complex for closed-form solutions and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is used to draw inferences from posterior distributions. This chapter describes how these Bayesian multiple-regression analyses can be used for GWAS. In most GWAS, false positives are controlled by limiting the genome-wise error rate, which is the probability of one or more false-positive results, to a small value. As the number of test in GWAS is very large, this results in very low power. Here we show how in Bayesian GWAS false positives can be controlled by limiting the proportion of false-positive results among all positives to some small value. The advantage of this approach is that the power of detecting associations is not inversely related to the number of markers.

  12. 12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

  13. Sequential Fragmentation of Pleistocene Forests in an East Africa Biodiversity Hotspot: Chameleons as a Model to Track Forest History

    OpenAIRE

    Measey, G. John; Tolley, Krystal A.

    2011-01-01

    Background The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM) is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal...

  14. A Comparison of Hierarchical and Non-Hierarchical Bayesian Approaches for Fitting Allometric Larch (Larix.spp. Biomass Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongsheng Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate biomass estimations are important for assessing and monitoring forest carbon storage. Bayesian theory has been widely applied to tree biomass models. Recently, a hierarchical Bayesian approach has received increasing attention for improving biomass models. In this study, tree biomass data were obtained by sampling 310 trees from 209 permanent sample plots from larch plantations in six regions across China. Non-hierarchical and hierarchical Bayesian approaches were used to model allometric biomass equations. We found that the total, root, stem wood, stem bark, branch and foliage biomass model relationships were statistically significant (p-values < 0.001 for both the non-hierarchical and hierarchical Bayesian approaches, but the hierarchical Bayesian approach increased the goodness-of-fit statistics over the non-hierarchical Bayesian approach. The R2 values of the hierarchical approach were higher than those of the non-hierarchical approach by 0.008, 0.018, 0.020, 0.003, 0.088 and 0.116 for the total tree, root, stem wood, stem bark, branch and foliage models, respectively. The hierarchical Bayesian approach significantly improved the accuracy of the biomass model (except for the stem bark and can reflect regional differences by using random parameters to improve the regional scale model accuracy.

  15. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...... and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing the successful compilation, and efficient inference, on relational Bayesian networks whose {\\primula}--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  16. Bayesian Posterior Distributions Without Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Cole, Stephen R.; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B.

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976–1983) assessing the relation between residential ex...

  17. Truth Obviousness in Ancient Greek Philosophy

    OpenAIRE

    Halyna I. Budz

    2013-01-01

    The article examines the features of the axiomatic approach to the truth understanding in ancient Greek philosophy. Truth in the works by ancient philosophers has axiomatic essence, basing on divine origin of truth. As the truth has a divine origin, it is in reality. The reality, created by Gods is the solemn reality. Therefore, understanding of reality by man is the display of divine reality, which is true and clever. In of the context of ancient Greek philosophy, to know truth is to know so...

  18. 3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

    2017-01-01

    This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

  19. Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

    This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learn....... An automated procedure for specifying prior distributions for the parameters in a dynamic Bayesian network is presented. It is a simple extension of the procedure for the ordinary Bayesian networks. Finally the W¨olfer?s sunspot numbers are analyzed....

  20. Urban Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Nowak

    2016-01-01

    Urban forests (and trees) constitute the second forest resource considered in this report. We specifically emphasize the fact that agricultural and urban forests exist on a continuum defined by their relationship (and interrelationship) with a given landscape. These two forest types generally serve different purposes, however. Whereas agricultural forests are...

  1. Genome-wide prediction of discrete traits using bayesian regressions and machine learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forni Selma

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genomic selection has gained much attention and the main goal is to increase the predictive accuracy and the genetic gain in livestock using dense marker information. Most methods dealing with the large p (number of covariates small n (number of observations problem have dealt only with continuous traits, but there are many important traits in livestock that are recorded in a discrete fashion (e.g. pregnancy outcome, disease resistance. It is necessary to evaluate alternatives to analyze discrete traits in a genome-wide prediction context. Methods This study shows two threshold versions of Bayesian regressions (Bayes A and Bayesian LASSO and two machine learning algorithms (boosting and random forest to analyze discrete traits in a genome-wide prediction context. These methods were evaluated using simulated and field data to predict yet-to-be observed records. Performances were compared based on the models' predictive ability. Results The simulation showed that machine learning had some advantages over Bayesian regressions when a small number of QTL regulated the trait under pure additivity. However, differences were small and disappeared with a large number of QTL. Bayesian threshold LASSO and boosting achieved the highest accuracies, whereas Random Forest presented the highest classification performance. Random Forest was the most consistent method in detecting resistant and susceptible animals, phi correlation was up to 81% greater than Bayesian regressions. Random Forest outperformed other methods in correctly classifying resistant and susceptible animals in the two pure swine lines evaluated. Boosting and Bayes A were more accurate with crossbred data. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that the best method for genome-wide prediction may depend on the genetic basis of the population analyzed. All methods were less accurate at correctly classifying intermediate animals than extreme animals. Among the different

  2. Accounting And Forms Of Accountability In Ancient Civilizations: Mesopotamia And Ancient Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    SALVADOR CARMONA

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify the relevance and implications of ancient accounting practices to the contemporary theorizing of accounting. The paper provides a synthesis of the literature on ancient accounting particularly in relation to issues of human accountability, identifies its major achievements and outlines some of the key challenges facing researchers. We argue that far from being an idiosyncratic research field of marginal interest, research in ancient accounting is a rich an...

  3. Ancient history of flatfish research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berghahn, Rüdiger; Bennema, Floris Pieter

    2013-01-01

    Owing to both their special appearance and behavior flatfish have attracted the special attention of people since ages. The first records of humans having been in touch with flatfish date back to the Stone Age about 15,000 years B.C. Detailed descriptions were already given in the classical antiquity and were taken up 1400 years later in the Renaissance by the first ichthyologists, encyclopédists, and also by practical men. This was more than 200 years before a number of common flatfish species were given their scientific names by Linnaeus in 1758. Besides morphology, remarkable and sometimes amusing naturalistic observations and figures are bequeathed. Ancient history of flatfish research is still a wide and open array. Examples are presented how the yield of information and interpretation from these times increases with interdisciplinary cooperation including archeologists, zoologists, ichthyologists, historians, art historians, fisheries and fishery biologist. The timeline of this contribution ends with the start of modern fishery research at the end of the 19th century in the course of the rapidly increasing exploitation of fish stocks.

  4. Genetic diversity among ancient Nordic populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melchior, Linea Cecilie; Lynnerup, Niels; Siegismund, Hans Redlef

    2010-01-01

    Using established criteria for work with fossil DNA we have analysed mitochondrial DNA from 92 individuals from 18 locations in Denmark ranging in time from the Mesolithic to the Medieval Age. Unequivocal assignment of mtDNA haplotypes was possible for 56 of the ancient individuals; however...... samples (4,200 YBP, Bell Beaker culture) that were typed were haplogroup U4 and U5a, respectively, and the single Bronze Age sample (3,300-3,500 YBP) was haplogroup U4. These two haplogroups have been associated with the Mesolithic populations of Central and Northern Europe. Therefore, at least...... the ancient Danes (average 13%) than among extant Danes and Scandinavians ( approximately 2.5%) as well as among other ancient population samples reported. Haplogroup I could therefore have been an ancient Southern Scandinavian type "diluted" by later immigration events. Interestingly, the two Neolithic...

  5. Paleo-Environmental Reconstruction Using Ancient DNA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Mikkel Winther

    The aim of this thesis has been to investigate and expand the methodology and applicability for using ancient DNA deposited in lake sediments to detect and determine its genetic sources for paleo-environmental reconstruction. The aim was furthermore to put this tool into an applicable context...... research on ancient and modern environmental DNA (Paper 1), secondly by setting up a comparative study (Paper 2) to investigate how an ancient plant DNA (mini)-barcode can reflect other traditional methods (e.g. pollen and macrofossils) for reconstructing floristic history. In prolongation of the results...... obtained in paper 2 we developed a holistic metagenomic method combined with shotgun sequencing of ancient DNA in lake sediment samples to reconstruct organismal assemblages in addition to the flora e.g. micro-, meso- and megafauna, fungi and microbial communities (Paper 3). Fundamental processes were...

  6. AN INTERESTING CASE OF ANCIENT SCHWANNOMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION : Schwannoma is a common benign tumour of nerve sheath. Degenerating type of schwannoma is called ancient schwannoma. Ancient schwannomas of scalp are rare and are often misdiagnosed as sebaceous cyst or dermoid cyst. CASE REPORT : We present a thirty two year old male presented with scalp swel ling of eight years duration. X - ray showed no intracranial extension. He underwent excision of the tumour and histopathology was reported as ancient schwannoma. DISCUSSION : Histopathologically , ancient schwannomas charecterised by cellular Antoni type A ar eas and less cellular Antoni type - B areas. 9 th , 7 th , 11 th , 5 th and 4 th cranial nerves are often affected and may be associated with multiple neuro fibramatosis (Von - Recklinghausen’s disease. Impact : Case is presented for its rarity and possible pre - operative misdiagnosis

  7. NIMI TANTRA (Opthalmology of Ancient India)

    OpenAIRE

    Ramachandran, C.K.

    1984-01-01

    The art of opthalmology was well developed in ancient India and was known as Nimi Tantra. In this paper the author presents the main features of Nimi Tantra an authoritative treatises written by Nimi, a prominent opthalmologist of his time.

  8. NIMI TANTRA (Opthalmology of Ancient India).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, C K

    1984-04-01

    The art of opthalmology was well developed in ancient India and was known as Nimi Tantra. In this paper the author presents the main features of Nimi Tantra an authoritative treatises written by Nimi, a prominent opthalmologist of his time.

  9. Ancient and modern DNA reveal dynamics of domestication and cross-continental dispersal of the dromedary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almathen, Faisal; Charruau, Pauline; Mohandesan, Elmira; Mwacharo, Joram M.; Orozco-terWengel, Pablo; Pitt, Daniel; Abdussamad, Abdussamad M.; Uerpmann, Margarethe; Uerpmann, Hans-Peter; De Cupere, Bea; Magee, Peter; Alnaqeeb, Majed A.; Salim, Bashir; Raziq, Abdul; Dessie, Tadelle; Abdelhadi, Omer M.; Banabazi, Mohammad H.; Al-Eknah, Marzook; Walzer, Chris; Faye, Bernard; Hofreiter, Michael; Peters, Joris; Hanotte, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    Dromedaries have been fundamental to the development of human societies in arid landscapes and for long-distance trade across hostile hot terrains for 3,000 y. Today they continue to be an important livestock resource in marginal agro-ecological zones. However, the history of dromedary domestication and the influence of ancient trading networks on their genetic structure have remained elusive. We combined ancient DNA sequences of wild and early-domesticated dromedary samples from arid regions with nuclear microsatellite and mitochondrial genotype information from 1,083 extant animals collected across the species’ range. We observe little phylogeographic signal in the modern population, indicative of extensive gene flow and virtually affecting all regions except East Africa, where dromedary populations have remained relatively isolated. In agreement with archaeological findings, we identify wild dromedaries from the southeast Arabian Peninsula among the founders of the domestic dromedary gene pool. Approximate Bayesian computations further support the “restocking from the wild” hypothesis, with an initial domestication followed by introgression from individuals from wild, now-extinct populations. Compared with other livestock, which show a long history of gene flow with their wild ancestors, we find a high initial diversity relative to the native distribution of the wild ancestor on the Arabian Peninsula and to the brief coexistence of early-domesticated and wild individuals. This study also demonstrates the potential to retrieve ancient DNA sequences from osseous remains excavated in hot and dry desert environments. PMID:27162355

  10. Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Lemey

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

  11. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  12. Surgical history of ancient China: Part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Louis

    2010-03-01

    In this second part of ancient Chinese surgical history, the practice of bone setting in China began around 3000 years ago. Throughout this period, significant progress was made, some highlights of which are cited. These methods, comparable with Western orthopaedic technique, are still being practised today. In conclusion, the possible reasons for the lack of advancement in operative surgery are discussed, within context of the cultural, social and religious background of ancient China.

  13. Science and Library in the Ancient Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Sacit Keseroğlu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Science assumes its contemporary identity as a result of the stages of magic, religion and reason. The religious stage starts with the invention of writing and this stage leaves its place to reason with Thales in Ancient Greece. Knowledge eludes from religious beliefs. Ways to reach accurate, reliable and realistic knowledge are sought, along with the answer for what knowledge is. Therefore, beginning of the science is taken into consideration together with science and philosophy. The purpose of this study is to approach knowledge and science of the ancient age in Mesopotamia, Egypt and Ancient Greece in general terms and to determine the relationship between the knowledge produced in those places and libraries established. The hypothesis has been determined as “Egypt and Mesopotamia at the starting point of the history of science and science, and libraries in Ancient Greece have developed parallelly to each other.” The scope of the study has been limited to Mesopotamia, Egypt and Ancient Greece; and Ancient Greece has been explained, with descriptive method, in the frame of the topics of Ionia, Athens, Hellenistic Period and Rome. Many archives and libraries have been established in the ancient age. The difference between an archive and a library has been mentioned first, and then, various libraries have been introduced such as Nineveh in Mesopotamia, Alexandria in Ancient Greece and many others in Egypt. It has been clearly distinguished that there had been a very tight relationship between knowledge production and library, especially with the Library of Alexandria.

  14. Social Norms in the Ancient Athenian Courts

    OpenAIRE

    Lanni, Adriaan M.

    2013-01-01

    Ancient Athens was a remarkably peaceful and well-ordered society by both ancient and contemporary standards. Scholars typically attribute Athens’ success to internalized norms and purely informal enforcement mechanisms. This article argues that the formal Athenian court system played a vital role in maintaining order by enforcing informal norms. This peculiar approach to norm enforcement compensated for apparent weaknesses in the state system of coercion. It mitigated the effects of under-e...

  15. Problems of ancient and modern greek accent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerneja Kavčič

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the article are the accen­ tual features of ancient and modern Greek. The first part discusses the prob­ lems of the position of the Greek accent at the earliest stages of development and the accentual rules of Ionic-Attic, Lesbic and Doric dialect. The second and the third part present the questions of the phonetics of the ancient Greek accent and the process in which the modern Greek accent appeared.

  16. Problems of ancient and modern greek accent

    OpenAIRE

    Jerneja Kavčič

    2000-01-01

    The subject of the article are the accen­ tual features of ancient and modern Greek. The first part discusses the prob­ lems of the position of the Greek accent at the earliest stages of development and the accentual rules of Ionic-Attic, Lesbic and Doric dialect. The second and the third part present the questions of the phonetics of the ancient Greek accent and the process in which the modern Greek accent appeared.

  17. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  18. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  19. Attention in a bayesian framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whiteley, Louise Emma; Sahani, Maneesh

    2012-01-01

    , and include both selective phenomena, where attention is invoked by cues that point to particular stimuli, and integrative phenomena, where attention is invoked dynamically by endogenous processing. However, most previous Bayesian accounts of attention have focused on describing relatively simple experimental...... settings, where cues shape expectations about a small number of upcoming stimuli and thus convey "prior" information about clearly defined objects. While operationally consistent with the experiments it seeks to describe, this view of attention as prior seems to miss many essential elements of both its...

  20. Forest crimes as a threat to sustainable forest management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Özden

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available From ancient times to the present day, forest public relations has been an issue on the agenda. This relationship’s purpose was initially needed for shelter and nutrition; however today this process has changed with urbanization, overpopulation and understanding the new functions of forests. When land ownership became a tool of production, offenses occurred in order to convert forestlands to agricultural lands. So the vast majority of the world’s forests have been lost for this reason. Today, deforestation is occurring in tropical countries that are expecting to gain agricultural area. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between urbanization and the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of forest crimes, which are a major obstacle for sustainable forestry. Although forests cover about 27 % of Turkey’s territory, the forests are losing viability; the status of wood raw material per unit area and the total area of the country in the ratio of productive forests are becoming critical in Turkey. Turkey’s rugged terrain and factors such as human interventions, fires, deforestation for agriculture, illegal cuttings, or improper grazing reduce existing forests or cause deterioration of their structure. In the past, deforestation, as a result of human interventions in Turkey, was done by forest villagers who live in rural areas. The forest crimes depend on various socio-economic reasons and have many adverse effects on the sustainability of forest and forest existence. In developed countries, illegal interventions such as opening, grazing, cutting, occupation, use, settlement, or hunting crimes have been largely eliminated because of the absence of cadastral problems, the existence of more responsive people to protect the environment and forests and a rural population, which has a higher standard of living. In the last 20 years, there has been both a dramatic decrease in the population living in rural areas and a

  1. Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V V Robin

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies.We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species.Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of

  2. Robust bayesian inference of generalized Pareto distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. In this work, robust Bayesian estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution is proposed. The methodology is presented in terms of oscillation of posterior risks of the Bayesian estimators. By using a Monte Carlo simulation study, we show that, under a suitable generalized loss function, we can obtain a robust ...

  3. Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mo

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

  4. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  5. Calibration in a Bayesian modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.J.W.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    Bayesian statistics may constitute the core of a consistent and comprehensive framework for the statistical aspects of modelling complex processes that involve many parameters whose values are derived from many sources. Bayesian statistics holds great promises for model calibration, provides the

  6. Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.; Collaboration, ALICE

    2016-01-01

    We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian

  7. Bayesian Network for multiple hypthesis tracking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zajdel, W.P.; Kröse, B.J.A.; Blockeel, H.; Denecker, M.

    2002-01-01

    For a flexible camera-to-camera tracking of multiple objects we model the objects behavior with a Bayesian network and combine it with the multiple hypohesis framework that associates observations with objects. Bayesian networks offer a possibility to factor complex, joint distributions into a

  8. Bayesian learning theory applied to human cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Robert A; Kruschke, John K

    2011-01-01

    Probabilistic models based on Bayes' rule are an increasingly popular approach to understanding human cognition. Bayesian models allow immense representational latitude and complexity. Because they use normative Bayesian mathematics to process those representations, they define optimal performance on a given task. This article focuses on key mechanisms of Bayesian information processing, and provides numerous examples illustrating Bayesian approaches to the study of human cognition. We start by providing an overview of Bayesian modeling and Bayesian networks. We then describe three types of information processing operations-inference, parameter learning, and structure learning-in both Bayesian networks and human cognition. This is followed by a discussion of the important roles of prior knowledge and of active learning. We conclude by outlining some challenges for Bayesian models of human cognition that will need to be addressed by future research. WIREs Cogn Sci 2011 2 8-21 DOI: 10.1002/wcs.80 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Properties of the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Sande, Brett

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

  10. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    and secondly, to gain efficiency during modification of an object oriented Bayesian network. To accomplish these two goals we have exploited a mechanism allowing local triangulation of instances to develop a method for updating the junction trees associated with object oriented Bayesian networks in highly...

  11. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  12. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  13. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  14. Flexible Bayesian Human Fecundity Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungduk; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Buck Louis, Germaine M; Pyper, Cecilia

    2012-12-01

    Human fecundity is an issue of considerable interest for both epidemiological and clinical audiences, and is dependent upon a couple's biologic capacity for reproduction coupled with behaviors that place a couple at risk for pregnancy. Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to better model the conception probabilities by accounting for the acts of intercourse around the day of ovulation, i.e., during the fertile window. These models can be viewed in the framework of a generalized nonlinear model with an exponential link. However, a fixed choice of link function may not always provide the best fit, leading to potentially biased estimates for probability of conception. Motivated by this, we propose a general class of models for fecundity by relaxing the choice of the link function under the generalized nonlinear model framework. We use a sample from the Oxford Conception Study (OCS) to illustrate the utility and fit of this general class of models for estimating human conception. Our findings reinforce the need for attention to be paid to the choice of link function in modeling conception, as it may bias the estimation of conception probabilities. Various properties of the proposed models are examined and a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was developed for implementing the Bayesian computations. The deviance information criterion measure and logarithm of pseudo marginal likelihood are used for guiding the choice of links. The supplemental material section contains technical details of the proof of the theorem stated in the paper, and contains further simulation results and analysis.

  15. Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana, Fernando A; Johnson, Wesley O; Waetjen, Elaine; Gold, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    Practical Bayesian nonparametric methods have been developed across a wide variety of contexts. Here, we develop a novel statistical model that generalizes standard mixed models for longitudinal data that include flexible mean functions as well as combined compound symmetry (CS) and autoregressive (AR) covariance structures. AR structure is often specified through the use of a Gaussian process (GP) with covariance functions that allow longitudinal data to be more correlated if they are observed closer in time than if they are observed farther apart. We allow for AR structure by considering a broader class of models that incorporates a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) over the covariance parameters of the GP. We are able to take advantage of modern Bayesian statistical methods in making full predictive inferences and about characteristics of longitudinal profiles and their differences across covariate combinations. We also take advantage of the generality of our model, which provides for estimation of a variety of covariance structures. We observe that models that fail to incorporate CS or AR structure can result in very poor estimation of a covariance or correlation matrix. In our illustration using hormone data observed on women through the menopausal transition, biology dictates the use of a generalized family of sigmoid functions as a model for time trends across subpopulation categories.

  16. BELM: Bayesian extreme learning machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Gómez-Sanchis, Juan; Martín, José D; Vila-Francés, Joan; Martínez, Marcelino; Magdalena, José R; Serrano, Antonio J

    2011-03-01

    The theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) has become very popular on the last few years. ELM is a new approach for learning the parameters of the hidden layers of a multilayer neural network (as the multilayer perceptron or the radial basis function neural network). Its main advantage is the lower computational cost, which is especially relevant when dealing with many patterns defined in a high-dimensional space. This brief proposes a bayesian approach to ELM, which presents some advantages over other approaches: it allows the introduction of a priori knowledge; obtains the confidence intervals (CIs) without the need of applying methods that are computationally intensive, e.g., bootstrap; and presents high generalization capabilities. Bayesian ELM is benchmarked against classical ELM in several artificial and real datasets that are widely used for the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Achieved results show that the proposed approach produces a competitive accuracy with some additional advantages, namely, automatic production of CIs, reduction of probability of model overfitting, and use of a priori knowledge.

  17. 2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

    2015-01-01

    The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

  18. Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

    CERN Document Server

    Zeevat, Henk

    2015-01-01

    The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

  19. Crystal structure prediction accelerated by Bayesian optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Tomoki; Sato, Nobuya; Kino, Hiori; Miyake, Takashi; Tsuda, Koji; Oguchi, Tamio

    2018-01-01

    We propose a crystal structure prediction method based on Bayesian optimization. Our method is classified as a selection-type algorithm which is different from evolution-type algorithms such as an evolutionary algorithm and particle swarm optimization. Crystal structure prediction with Bayesian optimization can efficiently select the most stable structure from a large number of candidate structures with a lower number of searching trials using a machine learning technique. Crystal structure prediction using Bayesian optimization combined with random search is applied to known systems such as NaCl and Y2Co17 to discuss the efficiency of Bayesian optimization. These results demonstrate that Bayesian optimization can significantly reduce the number of searching trials required to find the global minimum structure by 30-40% in comparison with pure random search, which leads to much less computational cost.

  20. Ancient Greek with Thrasymachus: A Web Site for Learning Ancient Greek.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, Alison

    2001-01-01

    Discusses a project that was begun as an attempt by two teachers of Ancient Greek to provide supplementary materials to accompany "Thrasymachus," a first-year textbook for learning ancient Greek. Provides a brief history and description of the project, the format of each chapter, a chronology for completion of materials for each chapter in the…

  1. Ancient DNA analyses exclude humans as the driving force behind late Pleistocene musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campos, Paula; Willerslev, Eske; Sher, Andrei

    2010-01-01

    , as it was the geographic origin of all samples studied and held a large diverse population until local extinction at approximately 45,000 radiocarbon years before present ((14)C YBP). Subsequently, musk ox genetic diversity reincreased at ca. 30,000 (14)C YBP, recontracted at ca. 18,000 (14)C YBP, and finally recovered...... to the present. The musk ox has an intermediate story: relatively abundant during the Pleistocene, it is now restricted to Greenland and the Arctic Archipelago. In this study, we use ancient DNA sequences, temporally unbiased summary statistics, and Bayesian analytical techniques to infer musk ox population...

  2. The Ancient Martian Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than

  3. Forest hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Devendra Amatya; Steve McNulty

    2016-01-01

    Forest hydrology studies the distribution, storage, movement, and quality of water and the hydrological processes in forest-dominated ecosystems. Forest hydrological science is regarded as the foundation of modern integrated water¬shed management. This chapter provides an overview of the history of forest hydrology and basic principles of this unique branch of...

  4. Forest soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles H. (Hobie) Perry; Michael C. Amacher

    2009-01-01

    Productive soils are the foundation of sustainable forests throughout the United States. Forest soils are generally subjected to fewer disturbances than agricultural soils, particularly those that are tilled, so forest soils tend to have better preserved A-horizons than agricultural soils. Another major contrast between forest and agricultural soils is the addition of...

  5. Use of pollen and ancient DNA as conservation baselines for offshore islands in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilmshurst, Janet M; Moar, Neville T; Wood, Jamie R; Bellingham, Peter J; Findlater, Amy M; Robinson, James J; Stone, Clive

    2014-02-01

    Islands play a key role globally in the conservation of endemic species. Many island reserves have been highly modified since human colonization, and their restoration and management usually occur without knowledge of their prehuman state. However, conservation paleoecology is increasingly being recognized as a tool that can help to inform both restoration and conservation of island reserves by providing prehuman vegetation baselines. Many of New Zealand's mammal-free offshore islands are foci for biological diversity conservation and, like many islands in the Polynesian region, were deforested following initial human settlement. Therefore, their current restoration, replanting, and management are guided either by historic vegetation descriptions or the occurrence of species on forested islands. We analyzed pollen and ancient DNA in soil cores from an offshore island in northern New Zealand. The result was a 2000-year record of vegetation change that began >1200 years before human settlement and spanned 550 years of human occupation and 180 years of forest succession since human occupation ceased. Between prehuman and contemporary forests there was nearly a complete species turnover including the extirpation of a dominant conifer and a palm tree. The podocarp-dominated forests were replaced by a native but novel angiosperm-dominated forest. There is no modern analog of the prehuman forests on any northern New Zealand island, and those islands that are forested are dominated by angiosperms which are assumed to be climax forests. The pollen and DNA evidence for conifer- and palm-rich forests in the prehuman era challenge this climax forest assumption. Prehuman vegetation records can thus help to inform future restoration of degraded offshore islands by informing the likely rate and direction of successional change; helping to determine whether natural rates of succession are preferable to more costly replanting programs; and providing past species lists if

  6. Diagnosis and management of retroperitoneal ancient schwannomas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gusani Niraj J

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ancient schwannomas are degenerate peripheral nerve sheath tumors that very rarely occur in the retroperitoneum. They generally reach large proportions before producing symptoms due to mass effect. We describe three cases of retroperitoneal ancient schwannomas and discuss the diagnosis and management of these tumors. Case presentations Three female patients with retroperitoneal ancient schwannomas were reviewed. One patient presented with several weeks of upper abdominal pain and lower chest discomfort, whereas back pain and leg pain with associated weakness were predominant symptoms in the remaining two. Abdominal imaging findings demonstrated heterogeneous masses in the retroperitoneum with demarcated margins, concerning for malignancy. The patients successfully had radical excision of their tumors. Histological examination showed encapsulated tumors that displayed alternating areas of dense cellularity and areas of myxoid matrix consistent with a diagnosis of ancient schwannoma. Conclusion A diagnosis of ancient schwannoma should be entertained for any heterogeneous, well encapsulated mass in the retroperitoneum. In these cases less radical surgical resection should be considered as malignant transformation of these tumors is extremely rare and recurrence is uncommon following excision.

  7. Bayesian Approach to Inverse Problems

    CERN Document Server

    2008-01-01

    Many scientific, medical or engineering problems raise the issue of recovering some physical quantities from indirect measurements; for instance, detecting or quantifying flaws or cracks within a material from acoustic or electromagnetic measurements at its surface is an essential problem of non-destructive evaluation. The concept of inverse problems precisely originates from the idea of inverting the laws of physics to recover a quantity of interest from measurable data.Unfortunately, most inverse problems are ill-posed, which means that precise and stable solutions are not easy to devise. Regularization is the key concept to solve inverse problems.The goal of this book is to deal with inverse problems and regularized solutions using the Bayesian statistical tools, with a particular view to signal and image estimation

  8. Bayesian modelling of fusion diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, R.; Dinklage, A.; Pasch, E.

    2003-07-01

    Integrated data analysis of fusion diagnostics is the combination of different, heterogeneous diagnostics in order to improve physics knowledge and reduce the uncertainties of results. One example is the validation of profiles of plasma quantities. Integration of different diagnostics requires systematic and formalized error analysis for all uncertainties involved. The Bayesian probability theory (BPT) allows a systematic combination of all information entering the measurement descriptive model that considers all uncertainties of the measured data, calibration measurements, physical model parameters and measurement nuisance parameters. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters allows crucial uncertainties to be found, which has an impact on both diagnostic improvement and design. The systematic statistical modelling within the BPT is used for reconstructing electron density and electron temperature profiles from Thomson scattering data from the Wendelstein 7-AS stellarator. The inclusion of different diagnostics and first-principle information is discussed in terms of improvements.

  9. Bayesian networks in educational assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...

  10. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...... sections, in addition to fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix. Intended primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning...... under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples, and exercises are included for the reader to check his or her level of understanding. The techniques and methods presented on model construction and verification, modeling techniques and tricks, learning...

  11. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  12. Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter

    2015-01-01

    As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

  13. Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B

    2011-12-01

    Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online.

  14. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-01-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  15. A Bayesian Reflection on Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Wolf

    1999-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The topic of this paper is a novel Bayesian continuous-basis field representation and inference framework. Within this paper several problems are solved: The maximally informative inference of continuous-basis fields, that is where the basis for the field is itself a continuous object and not representable in a finite manner; the tradeoff between accuracy of representation in terms of information learned, and memory or storage capacity in bits; the approximation of probability distributions so that a maximal amount of information about the object being inferred is preserved; an information theoretic justification for multigrid methodology. The maximally informative field inference framework is described in full generality and denoted the Generalized Kalman Filter. The Generalized Kalman Filter allows the update of field knowledge from previous knowledge at any scale, and new data, to new knowledge at any other scale. An application example instance, the inference of continuous surfaces from measurements (for example, camera image data, is presented.

  16. Forest rights

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balooni, Kulbhushan; Lund, Jens Friis

    2014-01-01

    One of the proposed strategies for implementation of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus (REDD+) is to incentivize conservation of forests managed by communities under decentralized forest management. Yet, we argue that this is a challenging road to REDD+ because......+ transactions costs. Third, beyond the “conservation islands” represented by forests under decentralized management, processes of deforestation and forest degradation continue. Given these challenges, we argue that REDD+ efforts through decentralized forestry should be redirected from incentivizing further...

  17. Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

  18. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  19. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...... by evaluating and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing successful compilation and efficient inference on relational Bayesian networks, whose PRIMULA--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  20. Dacic Ancient Astronomical Research in Sarmizegetuza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuel George Oprea

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The actual Romanian territory belongs to Carpatho-Danubian Space and to Ancient Europe. The Ancient European Society was a vast cultural entity based on a theocratic, matriarchal society, peaceful and art creating.Temples of Sarmizegetusa have given rise to several theories over time, proven by historians with the most diverse arguments. The largest complex of temples and sanctuaries was founded in Sarmizegetusa Regia, the Dacian’s main fortress and ancient capital of Dacia in the time of King Decebalus. The mysterious form of settlements has led researchers to the conclusion that the locations were astronomical observation shrines. Among the places of Dacian worship in Orastie Mountains the most impressive is the Great Circular Sanctuary, used to perform some celestial observations, and also as original solar calendar. This paper had the purpose to re-discover the Dacian Civilization and Dacian cosmogony based on the accumulated knowledge upon our country’s past.

  1. Prehistoric polymers: rubber processing in ancient mesoamerica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosler; Burkett; Tarkanian

    1999-06-18

    Ancient Mesoamerican peoples harvested latex from Castilla elastica, processed it using liquid extracted from Ipomoea alba (a species of morning glory vine), and fashioned rubber balls, hollow rubber figurines, and other rubber artifacts from the resulting material. Chemical and mechanical analyses of the latex and of the processed rubber indicate that the enhanced elastic behavior of the rubber relative to the unprocessed latex is due to purification of the polymer component and to an increase in the strength and number of interchain interactions that are induced by organic compounds present in I. alba. These ancient peoples' control over the properties of latex and processed rubber gave rise to the Mesoamerican ball game, a central ritual element in all ancient Mesoamerican societies.

  2. Twins in Ancient Greece: a synopsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malamitsi-Puchner, Ariadne

    2016-01-01

    This brief outline associates twins with several aspects of life in Ancient Greece. In Greek mythology twins caused ambivalent reactions and were believed to have ambivalent feelings for each other. Very often, they were viewed as the representatives of the dualistic nature of the universe. Heteropaternal superfecundation, which dominates in ancient myths, explains on one hand, the god-like qualities and, on the other hand, the mortal nature of many twins. An assumption is presented that legends referring to twins might reflect the territorial expansions of Ancient Greeks in Northern Mediterranean, around the Black Sea, in Asia Minor, as well as North East Africa. In conclusion, in Greek antiquity, twins have been used as transitional figures between myth and reality.

  3. Palaeoparasitology - Human Parasites in Ancient Material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Adauto; Reinhard, Karl; Ferreira, Luiz Fernando

    2015-01-01

    Parasite finds in ancient material launched a new field of science: palaeoparasitology. Ever since the pioneering studies, parasites were identified in archaeological and palaeontological remains, some preserved for millions of years by fossilization. However, the palaeoparasitological record consists mainly of parasites found specifically in human archaeological material, preserved in ancient occupation sites, from prehistory until closer to 2015. The results include some helminth intestinal parasites still commonly found in 2015, such as Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworms, besides others such as Amoebidae and Giardia intestinalis, as well as viruses, bacteria, fungi and arthropods. These parasites as a whole provide important data on health, diet, climate and living conditions among ancient populations. This chapter describes the principal findings and their importance for knowledge on the origin and dispersal of infectious diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The ancient Chinese notes on hydrogeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yu; Zwahlen, François; Wang, Yanxin

    2011-08-01

    The ancient Chinese notes on hydrogeology are summarized and interpreted, along with records of some related matters, like groundwater exploration and utilization, karst springs, water circulation, water conservation and saline-land transformation, mine drainage, and environmental hydrogeology. The report focuses only on the earliest recorded notes, mostly up until the Han Dynasty (206 BC - AD 25). Besides the references cited, the discussion in this report is based mainly on archaeological material, the preserved written classic literature, and some assumptions and/or conclusions that have been handed down in legends to later ages. Although most material relates to ancient China, the lessons learned may have practical significance worldwide. Compared to other contemporary parts of the world, ancient China, without doubt, took the lead in the field of groundwater hydrology. The great achievements and experience of the Chinese ancestors should provide motivation and inspiration for hydrogeologists to carry out their scientific research and exploration passionately and actively.

  5. Ancient Greek psychotherapy for contemporary nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2002-08-01

    Ancient Greek physicians as well as philosophers were fully cognizant of a human being's psychological function and used their particular art to influence individual or social behavior in accordance with their pursuit. This art or technique favorably compares with several of the methods currently called supportive psychotherapy. This psychotherapy was the first form of care for people with mental health problems. Nurses who base their practice on ancient Greek psychotherapy see the patient as a whole, a person who creates meaning in life. Applying the philosophical principles of ancient Greeks helps nurses understand the behavior of people with mental health problems and recognize and facilitate adaptive satisfaction of these psychological needs. In addition, psychiatric nurses are able to help distressed individuals understand their fears and anxieties, so they are freed from the causes of their symptoms that led them to seek therapy in the first place. Consequently, this understanding can make psychiatric nurses' work a living experience and add meaning to their work.

  6. The Vindolanda Tablets and the Ancient Economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Evers, Kasper Grønlund

    , a model is outlined which takes into account the different economic behaviours revealed by the tablets and attempts to fit them together into one coherent, economic system, whilst also relating the activities to questions of scale in the ancient economy; moreover, the conclusions drawn in the study......, the aim is to investigate how best to comprehend the economic system attested at Vindolanda and to consider the wider implications for studies of the ancient economy in general. This is accomplished by a three-step approach: first, the nature of the Vindolandan evidence is assessed, and the state...... of research on both studies of the ancient economy and the economy of early Roman Britain is accounted for, so as to highlight the value of the Vindolanda Tablets and lay the ground for the interpretations which follow. Secondly, the economic activities attested by the tablets are analysed in terms of market...

  7. Inferring Past Environments from Ancient Epigenomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokhman, David; Malul, Anat; Carmel, Liran

    2017-10-01

    Analyzing the conditions in which past individuals lived is key to understanding the environments and cultural transitions to which humans had to adapt. Here, we suggest a methodology to probe into past environments, using reconstructed premortem DNA methylation maps of ancient individuals. We review a large body of research showing that differential DNA methylation is associated with changes in various external and internal factors, and propose that loci whose DNA methylation level is environmentally responsive could serve as markers to infer about ancient daily life, diseases, nutrition, exposure to toxins, and more. We demonstrate this approach by showing that hunger-related DNA methylation changes are found in ancient hunter-gatherers. The strategy we present here opens a window to reconstruct previously inaccessible aspects of the lives of past individuals. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  8. Forests, woods, forest plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giannini R

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In protected areas the forest ecosystem management is directed to define the best approaches with high protection levels from ecological, historical, anthropological and landscape point of view. The conservation purposes have to be taken in consideration to not disturb the natural and functional processes, and therefore any forest human activity has to be done. Through a detailed analysis of the relations among functionality, stability, productivity and genetic diversity, the statement of the reasons for application of close-to-nature silviculture is described and discussed. Some specific silvicultural systems are illustrated on the basis of very large quantity of data and information originated from researches carried out for long time. A major challenge facing modern silviculture is to reconcile the traditional objectives of timber production with the demand for multifunctional forest ecosystems which arises from the society. The preservation of the functionality is strictly related to the forest genetic pool which is the basis of biodiversity, as it represents the basis for adaptation and survival of species and individual.

  9. The TL dating of ancient porcelain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leung, P.L.; Stokes, M.J.; Wang Weida; Xia Junding; Zhou Zhixin

    1997-01-01

    The age determination of ancient porcelain using the pre-dose technique in TL dating was reported. The variation of beta dose with depth below the surface of the porcelain slice, the thermal activation characteristic (TAC) for 110 degree C peak, the measurement of paleodose and the estimation of annual dose were studied. The results show that this technique is suitable for authenticity testing of ancient porcelain, but both accuracy and precision for porcelain dating are worse than those for pottery, because porcelain differs from pottery on composition, structure and firing temperature. Besides, some complicated factors in the pre-dose technique would be the possible cause of the greater errors

  10. Damage and repair of ancient DNA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitchell, David; Willerslev, Eske; Hansen, Anders

    2005-01-01

    Under certain conditions small amounts of DNA can survive for long periods of time and can be used as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) substrates for the study of phylogenetic relationships and population genetics of extinct plants and animals, including hominids. Because of extensive DNA...... such as extinct horses, cave bears, the marsupial wolf, the moa, and Neanderthal. In the past few years, this technology has been extended to the study of infectious disease in ancient Egyptian and South American mummies, the dietary habits of ancient animals, and agricultural practices and population dynamics...

  11. Ancient Maya impacts on the Earth's surface: An Early Anthropocene analog?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Tim; Luzzadder-Beach, Sheryl; Cook, Duncan; Dunning, Nicholas; Kennett, Douglas J.; Krause, Samantha; Terry, Richard; Trein, Debora; Valdez, Fred

    2015-09-01

    The measure of the "Mayacene," a microcosm of the Early Anthropocene that occurred from c. 3000 to 1000 BP, comes from multiple Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental records. We synthesized the evidence for Maya impacts on climate, vegetation, hydrology and the lithosphere, from studies of soils, lakes, floodplains, wetlands and other ecosystems. Maya civilization had likely altered local to regional ecosystems and hydrology by the Preclassic Period (3000-1700 BP), but these impacts waned by 1000 BP. They altered ecosystems with vast urban and rural infrastructure that included thousands of reservoirs, wetland fields and canals, terraces, field ridges, and temples. Although there is abundant evidence that indicates the Maya altered their forests, even at the large urban complex of Tikal as much as 40% of the forest remained intact through the Classic period. Existing forests are still influenced by ancient Maya forest gardening, particularly by the large expanses of ancient stone structures, terraces, and wetland fields that form their substrates. A few studies suggest deforestation and other land uses probably also warmed and dried regional climate by the Classic Period (1700-1100 BP). A much larger body of research documents the Maya impacts on hydrology, in the form of dams, reservoirs, canals, eroded soils and urban design for runoff. Another metric of the "Mayacene" are paleosols, which contain chemical evidence for human occupation, revealed by high phosphorus concentrations and carbon isotope ratios of C4 species like maize in the C3-dominated tropical forest ecosystem. Paleosol sequences exhibit "Maya Clays," a facies that reflects a glut of rapidly eroded sediments that overlie pre-Maya paleosols. This stratigraphy is conspicuous in many dated soil profiles and marks the large-scale Maya transformation of the landscape in the Preclassic and Classic periods. Some of these also have increased phosphorous and carbon isotope evidence of C4 species. We synthesize

  12. Bayesian estimation and modeling: Editorial to the second special issue on Bayesian data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Hoijtink, Herbert

    2017-12-01

    This editorial accompanies the second special issue on Bayesian data analysis published in this journal. The emphases of this issue are on Bayesian estimation and modeling. In this editorial, we outline the basics of current Bayesian estimation techniques and some notable developments in the statistical literature, as well as adaptations and extensions by psychological researchers to better tailor to the modeling applications in psychology. We end with a discussion on future outlooks of Bayesian data analysis in psychology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Land-use history affects understorey plant species distributions in a large temperate-forest complex, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenning, J.-C.; Baktoft, Karen H.; Balslev, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    spatial, and 5 historical variables, and principal components analysis (PCA), redundancy analysis (RDA) as well as indicator species analysis. The historical variables were status as ancient (1805 AD) high forest, reclaimed bogs, ≤100 m from Bronze Age burial mounds, or former conifer plantation...... dispersal and a strong literature record as ancient-forest species, were still concentrated in areas that were high forest in 1805. Among the younger forests, there were clear floristic differences between those on reclaimed bogs and those not. Apparently remnant populations of wet-soil plants were still...

  14. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  15. Bayesian analysis for the social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Jackman, Simon

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian methods are increasingly being used in the social sciences, as the problems encountered lend themselves so naturally to the subjective qualities of Bayesian methodology. This book provides an accessible introduction to Bayesian methods, tailored specifically for social science students. It contains lots of real examples from political science, psychology, sociology, and economics, exercises in all chapters, and detailed descriptions of all the key concepts, without assuming any background in statistics beyond a first course. It features examples of how to implement the methods using WinBUGS - the most-widely used Bayesian analysis software in the world - and R - an open-source statistical software. The book is supported by a Website featuring WinBUGS and R code, and data sets.

  16. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  17. Bayesian Statistics の源流

    OpenAIRE

    新家, 健精

    1991-01-01

    © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. All rights reserved. Article Outline: Glossary Definition of the Subject and Introduction The Bayesian Statistical Paradigm Three Examples Comparison with the Frequentist Statistical Paradigm Future Directions Bibliography

  18. An overview on Approximate Bayesian computation*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baragatti Meïli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation techniques, also called likelihood-free methods, are one of the most satisfactory approach to intractable likelihood problems. This overview presents recent results since its introduction about ten years ago in population genetics.

  19. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  20. A Bayesian concept learning approach to crowdsourcing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viappiani, P.; Zilles, S.; Hamilton, H.J.

    2011-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian approach to concept learning for crowdsourcing applications. A probabilistic belief over possible concept definitions is maintained and updated according to (noisy) observations from experts, whose behaviors are modeled using discrete types. We propose recommendation...

  1. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

    2014-01-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

  2. A Bayesian Network Approach to Ontology Mapping

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pan, Rong; Ding, Zhongli; Yu, Yang; Peng, Yun

    2005-01-01

    .... In this approach, the source and target ontologies are first translated into Bayesian networks (BN); the concept mapping between the two ontologies are treated as evidential reasoning between the two translated BNs...

  3. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2009-02-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Net aboveground biomass declines of four major forest types with forest ageing and climate change in western Canada's boreal forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Han Y H; Luo, Yong

    2015-10-01

    Biomass change of the world's forests is critical to the global carbon cycle. Despite storing nearly half of global forest carbon, the boreal biome of diverse forest types and ages is a poorly understood component of the carbon cycle. Using data from 871 permanent plots in the western boreal forest of Canada, we examined net annual aboveground biomass change (ΔAGB) of four major forest types between 1958 and 2011. We found that ΔAGB was higher for deciduous broadleaf (DEC) (1.44 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) , 95% Bayesian confidence interval (CI), 1.22-1.68) and early-successional coniferous forests (ESC) (1.42, CI, 1.30-1.56) than mixed forests (MIX) (0.80, CI, 0.50-1.11) and late-successional coniferous (LSC) forests (0.62, CI, 0.39-0.88). ΔAGB declined with forest age as well as calendar year. After accounting for the effects of forest age, ΔAGB declined by 0.035, 0.021, 0.032 and 0.069 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) per calendar year in DEC, ESC, MIX and LSC forests, respectively. The ΔAGB declines resulted from increased tree mortality and reduced growth in all forest types except DEC, in which a large biomass loss from mortality was accompanied with a small increase in growth. With every degree of annual temperature increase, ΔAGB decreased by 1.00, 0.20, 0.55 and 1.07 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) in DEC, ESC, MIX and LSC forests, respectively. With every cm decrease of annual climatic moisture availability, ΔAGB decreased 0.030, 0.045 and 0.17 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) in ESC, MIX and LSC forests, but changed little in DEC forests. Our results suggest that persistent warming and decreasing water availability have profound negative effects on forest biomass in the boreal forests of western Canada. Furthermore, our results indicate that forest responses to climate change are strongly dependent on forest composition with late-successional coniferous forests being most vulnerable to climate changes in terms of aboveground biomass. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Cassin\\'s hawk-eagle Spizaetus africanus in Ndundulu Forest: a first ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A single adult Cassin's hawk-eagle Spizaetus africanus was sighted on five occasions over three years in a highland forest in the Udzungwa Mountains, the first ever record of this species in Tanzania. This discovery has potentially significant biogeographical implications, strengthening ancient links between the forests of ...

  6. Bayesian networks for management of industrial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munteanu, P.; Debache, G.; Duval, C.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents the outlines of Bayesian networks modelling and argues for their interest in the probabilistic studies of industrial risk and reliability. A practical case representative of this type of study is presented in support of the argumentation. The article concludes on some research tracks aiming at improving the performances of the methods relying on Bayesian networks and at widening their application area in risk management. (authors)

  7. MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.

  8. Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross- entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

  9. Capturing Business Cycles from a Bayesian Viewpoint

    OpenAIRE

    大鋸, 崇

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a survey of empirical studies analyzing business cycles from the perspective of Bayesian econometrics. Kim and Nelson (1998) use a hybrid model; Dynamic factor model of Stock and Watson (1989) and Markov switching model of Hamilton (1989). From the point of view, it is more important dealing with non-linear and non-Gaussian econometric models, recently. Although the classical econometric approaches have difficulty in these models, the Bayesian's do easily. The fact leads heavy u...

  10. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  11. A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition

    OpenAIRE

    Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick

    2007-01-01

    URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...

  12. Moessbauer studies on ancient Jizhon plain Temmoku porcelains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Zhengfang; Zheng Yufang; Lin Yongqiang

    1994-01-01

    Three kinds of ancient Jizhou plain Temmoku wares and their several ware-making raw materials were studied by means of X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Moessbauer spectroscopy. The firing technique of ancient Jizhou Temmoku porcelains is discussed. (orig.)

  13. Records of solar eclipse observations in ancient China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Yanben; Qiao, Qiyuan

    2009-11-01

    Like ancient people at other places of the world, the ancient Chinese lived in awe of the Sun. As they felt solar eclipses extremely significant events, they closely observed the occurrence of solar eclipse. Ancient astronomers further realized very early that solar eclipses were one of the important astronomical phenomena to revise and improve the ancient calendar. Interestingly, ancient emperors regarded solar eclipses as warnings from heaven that might affect the stability of their throne. Consequently, observing and recording solar eclipses became official, which dated far back to ancient China when numerous relevant descriptions were recorded in historical books. These records contribute substantially to China as an ancient civilization, as well as to the research of the long-term variation of the rotation rate of the Earth during >2000 years before the 17th century. This paper briefly reviews the perception, observations and recording of solar eclipses by ancient Chinese astronomers.

  14. A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Predict Self-Thinning Line for Chinese Fir in Southern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiongqing Zhang

    Full Text Available Self-thinning is a dynamic equilibrium between forest growth and mortality at full site occupancy. Parameters of the self-thinning lines are often confounded by differences across various stand and site conditions. For overcoming the problem of hierarchical and repeated measures, we used hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the self-thinning line. The results showed that the self-thinning line for Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.Hook. plantations was not sensitive to the initial planting density. The uncertainty of model predictions was mostly due to within-subject variability. The simulation precision of hierarchical Bayesian method was better than that of stochastic frontier function (SFF. Hierarchical Bayesian method provided a reasonable explanation of the impact of other variables (site quality, soil type, aspect, etc. on self-thinning line, which gave us the posterior distribution of parameters of self-thinning line. The research of self-thinning relationship could be benefit from the use of hierarchical Bayesian method.

  15. Tree Biomass Estimation of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) Based on Bayesian Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianguo

    2013-01-01

    Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) is the most important conifer species for timber production with huge distribution area in southern China. Accurate estimation of biomass is required for accounting and monitoring Chinese forest carbon stocking. In the study, allometric equation was used to analyze tree biomass of Chinese fir. The common methods for estimating allometric model have taken the classical approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability. However, many different biotic and abiotic factors introduce variability in Chinese fir biomass model, suggesting that parameters of biomass model are better represented by probability distributions rather than fixed values as classical method. To deal with the problem, Bayesian method was used for estimating Chinese fir biomass model. In the Bayesian framework, two priors were introduced: non-informative priors and informative priors. For informative priors, 32 biomass equations of Chinese fir were collected from published literature in the paper. The parameter distributions from published literature were regarded as prior distributions in Bayesian model for estimating Chinese fir biomass. Therefore, the Bayesian method with informative priors was better than non-informative priors and classical method, which provides a reasonable method for estimating Chinese fir biomass. PMID:24278198

  16. Tree biomass estimation of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata based on Bayesian method.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiongqing Zhang

    Full Text Available Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb. Hook. is the most important conifer species for timber production with huge distribution area in southern China. Accurate estimation of biomass is required for accounting and monitoring Chinese forest carbon stocking. In the study, allometric equation W = a(D2Hb was used to analyze tree biomass of Chinese fir. The common methods for estimating allometric model have taken the classical approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability. However, many different biotic and abiotic factors introduce variability in Chinese fir biomass model, suggesting that parameters of biomass model are better represented by probability distributions rather than fixed values as classical method. To deal with the problem, Bayesian method was used for estimating Chinese fir biomass model. In the Bayesian framework, two priors were introduced: non-informative priors and informative priors. For informative priors, 32 biomass equations of Chinese fir were collected from published literature in the paper. The parameter distributions from published literature were regarded as prior distributions in Bayesian model for estimating Chinese fir biomass. Therefore, the Bayesian method with informative priors was better than non-informative priors and classical method, which provides a reasonable method for estimating Chinese fir biomass.

  17. Bayesian Inference of Tumor Hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawan, R.; Tenti, G.; Sivaloganathan, S.

    2009-12-01

    Tumor hypoxia is a state of oxygen deprivation in tumors. It has been associated with aggressive tumor phenotypes and with increased resistance to conventional cancer therapies. In this study, we report on the application of Bayesian sequential analysis in estimating the most probable value of tumor hypoxia quantification based on immunohistochemical assays of a biomarker. The `gold standard' of tumor hypoxia assessment is a direct measurement of pO2 in vivo by the Eppendorf polarographic electrode, which is an invasive technique restricted to accessible sites and living tissues. An attractive alternative is immunohistochemical staining to detect proteins expressed by cells during hypoxia. Carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) is an enzyme expressed on the cell membrane during hypoxia to balance the immediate extracellular microenvironment. CAIX is widely regarded as a surrogate marker of chronic hypoxia in various cancers. The study was conducted with two different experimental procedures. The first data set was a group of three patients with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which five biopsies were obtained. Each of the biopsies was fully sectioned and from each section, the proportion of CAIX-positive cells was estimated. Measurements were made by image analysis of multiple deep sections cut through these biopsies, labeled for CAIX using both immunofluorescence and immunohistochemical techniques [1]. The second data set was a group of 24 patients, also with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which two biopsies were obtained. Bayesian parameter estimation was applied to obtain a reliable inference about the proportion of CAIX-positive cells within the carcinomas, based on the available biopsies. From the first data set, two to three biopsies were found to be sufficient to infer the overall CAIX percentage in the simple form: best estimate±uncertainty. The second data-set led to a similar result in 70% of the cases. In the remaining cases Bayes' theorem warned us

  18. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2013-02-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  19. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2015-01-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. PMID:22364575

  20. Outreach Testing of Ancient Astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanmartin, J. R. S.; Blanco, M. B. M.

    2015-10-01

    fundamental quantity being given by half the difference between solar distances to vertical at winter and summer solstices, with value about 23.5°. Day and year periods greatly differing by about 2 ½ orders of magnitude, 1 day against 365 days, helps students to correctly visualize and interpret the experimental measurements. Since the gnomon serves to observe at night the moon shadow too, students can also determine the inclination of the lunar orbital plane, as about 5 degrees away from the ecliptic, thus explaining why eclipses are infrequent. Independently, earth taking longer between spring and fall equinoxes than from fall to spring (the solar anomaly), as again verified by the students, was explained in ancient Greek science, which posited orbits universally as circles or their combination, by introducing the eccentric circle, with earth placed some distance away from the orbital centre when considering the relative motion of the sun, which would be closer to the earth in winter. In a sense, this can be seen as hint and approximation of the elliptic orbit proposed by Kepler many centuries later. EPSC Abstracts Vol. 10, EPSC2015-40, 2015 European Planetary Science Congress 2015 c Author(s) 2015 EPSC European Planetary Science Congress Secondly, by observing lunar phases and eclipses from the ground, students could also determine, following Aristarchus of Samos in the 3rd century BC, 4 length ratios involving moon and sun distances to earth, and radii of all three, moon, sun, and earth. The angular width of the moon could be first determined with simplest optical devices as about half a degree; this yields the ratio between moon diameter 2RM and distance DM to earth. Next, eclipses of sun prove its angular width, and thus ratio 2RS/DS, similar to the lunar one, though the relatively high lunar orbital eccentricity, 0.055, does result in not quite a full eclipse if at lunar apogee. Further, at a half-moon phase, when the angle sun-moon-earth is a right one, the angle

  1. A Swarm of Ancient Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    We know of about 150 of the rich collections of old stars called globular clusters that orbit our galaxy, the Milky Way. This sharp new image of Messier 107, captured by the Wide Field Imager on the 2.2-metre telescope at ESO's La Silla Observatory in Chile, displays the structure of one such globular cluster in exquisite detail. Studying these stellar swarms has revealed much about the history of our galaxy and how stars evolve. The globular cluster Messier 107, also known as NGC 6171, is a compact and ancient family of stars that lies about 21 000 light-years away. Messier 107 is a bustling metropolis: thousands of stars in globular clusters like this one are concentrated into a space that is only about twenty times the distance between our Sun and its nearest stellar neighbour, Alpha Centauri, across. A significant number of these stars have already evolved into red giants, one of the last stages of a star's life, and have a yellowish colour in this image. Globular clusters are among the oldest objects in the Universe. And since the stars within a globular cluster formed from the same cloud of interstellar matter at roughly the same time - typically over 10 billion years ago - they are all low-mass stars, as lightweights burn their hydrogen fuel supply much more slowly than stellar behemoths. Globular clusters formed during the earliest stages in the formation of their host galaxies and therefore studying these objects can give significant insights into how galaxies, and their component stars, evolve. Messier 107 has undergone intensive observations, being one of the 160 stellar fields that was selected for the Pre-FLAMES Survey - a preliminary survey conducted between 1999 and 2002 using the 2.2-metre telescope at ESO's La Silla Observatory in Chile, to find suitable stars for follow-up observations with the VLT's spectroscopic instrument FLAMES [1]. Using FLAMES, it is possible to observe up to 130 targets at the same time, making it particularly well suited

  2. Analysis of ancient pigments by Raman microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuo Jian; Xu Cunyi

    1999-01-01

    Raman microscopy can be applied for the spatial resolution, and non-destructive in situ analysis of inorganic pigments in pottery, manuscripts and paintings. Compared with other techniques, it is the best single technique for this purpose. An overview is presented of the applications of Raman microscopy in the analysis of ancient pigments

  3. The Roots of Science in Ancient China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Arthur

    1982-01-01

    A 45-year-old research project (culminating in the multivolume "Science and Civilization in China") is examining major scientific innovations in ancient China and attempting to explain why, although the Chinese gained a technological edge in the past, they did not make the forward leap into modern science. (JN)

  4. Material characterization of ancient Indian copper

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Ancient Indian copper; material characterization; electrochemical behaviour; rust analysis; corrosion rate. Abstract. A chalcolithic (2350–1800 BC) copper chisel from Balathal has been characterized by X-ray diffraction, microstructural and electrochemical methods. The surface patina was composed of sulfates ...

  5. Truth Obviousness in Ancient Greek Philosophy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halyna I. Budz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the features of the axiomatic approach to the truth understanding in ancient Greek philosophy. Truth in the works by ancient philosophers has axiomatic essence, basing on divine origin of truth. As the truth has a divine origin, it is in reality. The reality, created by Gods is the solemn reality. Therefore, understanding of reality by man is the display of divine reality, which is true and clever. In of the context of ancient Greek philosophy, to know truth is to know something, existing in reality, in other words, something, truly existing, eternal reality. Consequently, to know truth is it to know the substantial reality base. That’s why the justification of the reality origin is the axiomatic doctrine of truth at the same time, because only fundamental principle “truly” exists and is the truth itself. The idea of fundamental principle in ancient Greek philosophy is the axiom, universal principle, which is the base of reality as a substance from ontological perspective and is realized as the truth from gnosiological perspective. Fundamental principle, as Greeks understand it, coincides with the truth, in other words, reality and thinking are identical. The idea of reality source is the universal criterion of world perception at the same time, in other words, it is the truth, which is perceived axiomatically.

  6. Ancient Indian Mathematics – A Conspectus*

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    strikingly close to modern mathematics, repre- sent the various levels of intellectual attainment. There is now increasing awareness around the world that as one of the ancient cultures, India has contributed sub- stantially to the global scientific development in many spheres, and mathematics has been one of the recognized.

  7. Communication Arts in the Ancient World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havelock, Eric A., Ed.; Hershbell, Jackson P., Ed.

    Intended for both classicists and nonclassicists, this volume explores the beginnings of literacy in ancient Greece and Rome and examines the effects of written communication on these cultures. The nine articles, written by classical scholars and educators in the field of communication, discuss the following: the superiority of the alphabet over…

  8. The Ancient stellar population of Leo A.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saha, Abhijit; Fiorentino, Giuliana; Tolstoy, Eline; Cole, Andrew

    The primary goal of our proposal is the characterisation of the oldest stellar populations in Leo A using the properties of ancient RR Lyrae variable stars as tracers. Well known and long established correlations exist between the periods and luminosities of RR Lyrae variable stars and their ages

  9. Ancient DNA analysis of dental calculus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyrich, Laura S; Dobney, Keith; Cooper, Alan

    2015-02-01

    Dental calculus (calcified tartar or plaque) is today widespread on modern human teeth around the world. A combination of soft starchy foods, changing acidity of the oral environment, genetic pre-disposition, and the absence of dental hygiene all lead to the build-up of microorganisms and food debris on the tooth crown, which eventually calcifies through a complex process of mineralisation. Millions of oral microbes are trapped and preserved within this mineralised matrix, including pathogens associated with the oral cavity and airways, masticated food debris, and other types of extraneous particles that enter the mouth. As a result, archaeologists and anthropologists are increasingly using ancient human dental calculus to explore broad aspects of past human diet and health. Most recently, high-throughput DNA sequencing of ancient dental calculus has provided valuable insights into the evolution of the oral microbiome and shed new light on the impacts of some of the major biocultural transitions on human health throughout history and prehistory. Here, we provide a brief historical overview of archaeological dental calculus research, and discuss the current approaches to ancient DNA sampling and sequencing. Novel applications of ancient DNA from dental calculus are discussed, highlighting the considerable scope of this new research field for evolutionary biology and modern medicine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. LD Students and the Ancient Mariner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Barbara L.

    1988-01-01

    Synectics, the making of analogies, was used with learning disabled high school seniors to provide them with a creative process that aids in developing a deeper understanding of literature. After studying Coleridge's "Rime of the Ancient Mariner," the students completed a six-step process and produced a short writing assignment. (VW)

  11. Defining Astrology in Ancient and Classical History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campion, Nicholas

    2015-05-01

    Astrology in the ancient and classical worlds can be partly defined by its role, and partly by the way in which scholars spoke about it. The problem is complicated by the fact that the word is Greek - it has no Babylonian or Egyptian cognates - and even in Greece it was interchangeable with its cousin, 'astronomy'. Yet if we are to understand the role of the sky, stars and planets in culture, debates about the nature of ancient astrology, by both classical and modern scholars, must be taken into account. This talk will consider modern scholars' typologies of ancient astrology, together with ancient debates from Cicero in the 1st century BC, to Plotinus (204/5-270 AD) and Isidore of Seville (c. 560 - 4 April 636). It will consider the implications for our understanding of astronomy's role in culture, and conclude that in the classical period astrology may be best understood through its diversity and allegiance to competing philosophies, and that its functions were therefore similarly varied.

  12. Perry: American renaissance of an ancient beverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgeoning world interest in cider and perry (pear cider, which is an alcoholic beverage) has created a strong demand for unique perry pear (Pyrus L.) cultivars. The history of perry dates to the ancient Romans. This beverage has been very popular through the centuries in Europe. The U.S. Department...

  13. The Ancient African Civilization of Kush.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollet, David; Mollet, Joyce

    1998-01-01

    Argues that early African civilizations should be taught to ameliorate the problem of many African-American students first encountering related peoples in discussions of colonialism and slavery. Observes that the absence of materials for middle grade teachers reinforces this tendency. Promotes the authors' teaching packs on the ancient African…

  14. The Challenges of Qualitatively Coding Ancient Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slingerland, Edward; Chudek, Maciej

    2012-01-01

    We respond to several important and valid concerns about our study ("The Prevalence of Folk Dualism in Early China," "Cognitive Science" 35: 997-1007) by Klein and Klein, defending our interpretation of our data. We also argue that, despite the undeniable challenges involved in qualitatively coding texts from ancient cultures,…

  15. Fossil avian eggshell preserves ancient DNA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oskam, Charlotte L; Haile, James Seymour; McLay, Emma

    2010-01-01

    Owing to exceptional biomolecule preservation, fossil avian eggshell has been used extensively in geochronology and palaeodietary studies. Here, we show, to our knowledge, for the first time that fossil eggshell is a previously unrecognized source of ancient DNA (aDNA). We describe the successful...

  16. [Gynecology and obstetrics in ancient Egypt].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morice, P; Josset, P; Colau, J C

    1994-01-01

    We analyzed scriptural and archeologic sources of information concerning gynaecology and obstetrics as practiced in ancient Egypt. Knowledge of anatomy was rudimentary but precocious diagnosis of pregnancy was practiced. An obstetrical chair had been used since the VIth dynasty. The Egyptians were the first to describe prolapsus of the genital organs. The pessary was a known treatment. Spermicidal mixtures were used for contraception.

  17. Ancient Egyptian Medicine: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Adu-Gyamfi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Our present day knowledge in the area of medicine in Ancient Egypt has been severally sourced from medical papyri several of which have been deduced and analyzed by different scholars. For educational purposes it is always imperative to consult different literature or sources in the teaching of ancient Egypt and medicine in particular. To avoid subjectivity the author has found the need to re-engage the efforts made by several scholars in adducing evidences from medical papyri. In the quest to re-engage the efforts of earlier writers and commentaries on the medical papyri, we are afforded the opportunity to be informed about the need to ask further questions to enable us to construct or reconstruct both past and modern views on ancient Egyptian medical knowledge. It is this vocation the author sought to pursue in the interim, through a preliminary review, to highlight, comment and reinvigorate in the reader or researcher the need for a continuous engagement of some pertinent documentary sources on Ancient Egyptian medical knowledge for educational and research purposes. The study is based on qualitative review of published literature. The selection of those articles as sources was based on the focus of the review, in order to purposively select and comment on articles that were published based either on information from a medical papyrus or focused on medical specialization among the ancient Egyptians as well as ancient Egyptian knowledge on diseases and medicine. It was found that the Egyptians developed relatively sophisticated medical practices covering significant medical fields such as herbal medicine, gynecology and obstetrics, anatomy and physiology, mummification and even the preliminary form of surgery. These practices, perhaps, were developed as remedies for the prevailing diseases and the accidents that might have occurred during the construction of their giant pyramids. It must be stated that they were not without flaws. Also, the

  18. Forest Histories & Forest Futures

    OpenAIRE

    Whitlock, Cathy

    2009-01-01

    The climate changes projected for the future will have significant consequences for forest ecosystems and our ability to manage them. It is reasonable to ask: Are there historical precedents that help us understand what might happen in the future or are historical perspectives becoming irrelevant? What synergisms and feedbacks might be expected between rapidly changing climate and land–use in different settings, especially at the wildland–urban interface? What lessons from the past might help...

  19. EXONEST: The Bayesian Exoplanetary Explorer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin H. Knuth

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The fields of astronomy and astrophysics are currently engaged in an unprecedented era of discovery as recent missions have revealed thousands of exoplanets orbiting other stars. While the Kepler Space Telescope mission has enabled most of these exoplanets to be detected by identifying transiting events, exoplanets often exhibit additional photometric effects that can be used to improve the characterization of exoplanets. The EXONEST Exoplanetary Explorer is a Bayesian exoplanet inference engine based on nested sampling and originally designed to analyze archived Kepler Space Telescope and CoRoT (Convection Rotation et Transits planétaires exoplanet mission data. We discuss the EXONEST software package and describe how it accommodates plug-and-play models of exoplanet-associated photometric effects for the purpose of exoplanet detection, characterization and scientific hypothesis testing. The current suite of models allows for both circular and eccentric orbits in conjunction with photometric effects, such as the primary transit and secondary eclipse, reflected light, thermal emissions, ellipsoidal variations, Doppler beaming and superrotation. We discuss our new efforts to expand the capabilities of the software to include more subtle photometric effects involving reflected and refracted light. We discuss the EXONEST inference engine design and introduce our plans to port the current MATLAB-based EXONEST software package over to the next generation Exoplanetary Explorer, which will be a Python-based open source project with the capability to employ third-party plug-and-play models of exoplanet-related photometric effects.

  20. Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.R.; Erickson, G.J.; Neudorfer, P.O.

    1992-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory and Maximum Entropy methods are at the core of a new view of scientific inference. These 'new' ideas, along with the revolution in computational methods afforded by modern computers allow astronomers, electrical engineers, image processors of any type, NMR chemists and physicists, and anyone at all who has to deal with incomplete and noisy data, to take advantage of methods that, in the past, have been applied only in some areas of theoretical physics. The title workshops have been the focus of a group of researchers from many different fields, and this diversity is evident in this book. There are tutorial and theoretical papers, and applications in a very wide variety of fields. Almost any instance of dealing with incomplete and noisy data can be usefully treated by these methods, and many areas of theoretical research are being enhanced by the thoughtful application of Bayes' theorem. Contributions contained in this volume present a state-of-the-art overview that will be influential and useful for many years to come

  1. Pre-Whaling Genetic Diversity and Population Ecology in Eastern Pacific Gray Whales: Insights from Ancient DNA and Stable Isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alter, S. Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

    2012-01-01

    Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size. PMID:22590499

  2. Pre-whaling genetic diversity and population ecology in eastern Pacific gray whales: insights from ancient DNA and stable isotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alter, S Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D; Palumbi, Stephen R

    2012-01-01

    Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ~5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size.

  3. Pre-whaling genetic diversity and population ecology in eastern Pacific gray whales: insights from ancient DNA and stable isotopes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Elizabeth Alter

    Full Text Available Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ~5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size.

  4. Ancient Egypt in our Cultural Heritage?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Vasiljević

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Inspiration derived from ancient Egypt is usually expressed through the Egyptian motifs in arts and popular culture of the 19th and 20th centuries, as well as through the non-scientific interpretations of the culture, very much based upon the Renaissance ones. The number and variety of material and non-material traces of this fascination are most expressed in the countries where, along with the early support for the institutional development of Egyptology, there existed economically potent educated middle classes (Western and Central Europe, USA, but may also be traced elsewhere. The public fascination by ancient Egypt has not ceased by the times of foundation of Egyptology, marked by the decipherment of the hieroglyphic script in 1822. Until the end of the 20th century Egyptologists have rarely dealt with the prelude to their discipline, limiting their interest to the critical approach to ancient sources and to noting the attempts to interpret the hieroglyphic script and the function of pyramids. However, the rising importance of the reception studies in other disciplines raised the interest of Egyptologists for the "fascination of Egypt", thus changing the status of various modes of expressing "Egyptomania" – they have thus become a part of the cultural heritage, registered, documented, preserved and studied. The research of this kind is only beginning in Serbia. The line of inquiry enhances the knowledge of the scope, manifestations and roles of the interest in Egypt, not limited by the national or political borders. On the other hand, the existence of the cultural heritage similar to the wider European view of ancient Egypt – short remarks by Jerotej Račanin, Kandor by Atanasije Stojković, the usage of architectural motifs derived from Egypt, the emergence of small private collections, to mention several early examples – all show that the research into the reception of ancient Egypt may contribute to the knowledge about the history

  5. Ancient and Medieval Cosmology in Armenian Highland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmanyan, Sona V.; Mickaelian, Areg M.

    2016-12-01

    Humankind has always sought to recognize the nature of various sky related phenomena and tried to give them explanations. It is especially vivid in ancient cultures, many of which are related to the Middle East. The purpose of this study is to identify ancient Armenian's pantheistic and cosmological perceptions, world view, notions and beliefs. By this study we answer the question "How did the Universe work in Ancient Armenian Highland?" The paper focuses on the structure of the Universe and many phenomena of nature that have always had major influence on ancient Armenians thinking. Here we weave together astronomy, anthropology and mythology of Armenia, and scientific thinking revealed in local astronomy traditions. The initial review of the study covers Moses of Khoren, Yeznik of Koghb, Anania Shirakatsi and other 5th-7th centuries historians' and scientists' records about the Universe related superstitious beliefs and cosmological understanding. By discussing and comparing Universe structure in various regional traditions, myths, folk songs and phraseological units we very often came across "seven worlds", "seven earths" and "seven layers" concepts. We draw parallels between scientific and mythological Earth and Heaven and thus find similar number of layers on both of the ancient and modern thinking. In the article we also give some details about the tripartite structure of the Universe and how these parts are connected with axis. This axis is either a column or a Cosmic Tree (Kenatz Tsar). In Armenian culture the preliminary meanings of the Kenatz Tsar are more vivid in folk songs (Jan gyulums), plays, epic, and so on, which was subsequently mixed with religious and spiritual views. We conclude that the perception of the Universe structure and celestial objects had a significant impact on culture and worldview of the people of the Armenian Highland; particularly it was one of the bases of the regional cultural diversity.

  6. Forest Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-06-01

    Forest biomass is an abundant biomass feedstock that complements the conventional forest use of wood for paper and wood materials. It may be utilized for bioenergy production, such as heat and electricity, as well as for biofuels and a variety of bioproducts, such as industrial chemicals, textiles, and other renewable materials. The resources within the 2016 Billion-Ton Report include primary forest resources, which are taken directly from timberland-only forests, removed from the land, and taken to the roadside.

  7. Ancient technology of jetties and anchoring points along the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gaur, A.S.; Vora, K.H.

    logs (jetty piles supporting the deck beams and the deck itself) remain strongly secured deep in the sediment (Figure 4). The oral history indicates that this jetty is at least a century old. Figure 2. Collapsed structure of an ancient jetty... small river using strong forest wood. Normally piles are sunk vertically into the seabed or into a rock support. Selection of wood log depends on its straightness. The distance between a pair is normally 0.5 m, which allows at least two planks of 0...

  8. A Bayesian approach to estimate sensible and latent heat over vegetated land surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. van der Tol

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Sensible and latent heat fluxes are often calculated from bulk transfer equations combined with the energy balance. For spatial estimates of these fluxes, a combination of remotely sensed and standard meteorological data from weather stations is used. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the input data and on the accuracy of two variables in particular: aerodynamic and surface conductance. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to improve estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes by using a priori estimates of aerodynamic and surface conductance alongside remote measurements of surface temperature. The method is validated for time series of half-hourly measurements in a fully grown maize field, a vineyard and a forest. It is shown that the Bayesian approach yields more accurate estimates of sensible and latent heat flux than traditional methods.

  9. Testing the role of ancient and contemporary landscapes on structuring genetic variation in a specialist grasshopper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noguerales, Víctor; Cordero, Pedro J; Ortego, Joaquín

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the processes underlying spatial patterns of genetic diversity and structure of natural populations is a central topic in evolutionary biogeography. In this study, we combine data on ancient and contemporary landscape composition to get a comprehensive view of the factors shaping genetic variation across the populations of the scrub-legume grasshopper ( Chorthippus binotatus binotatus ) from the biogeographically complex region of southeast Iberia. First, we examined geographical patterns of genetic structure and employed an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach to compare different plausible scenarios of population divergence. Second, we used a landscape genetic framework to test for the effects of (1) Late Miocene paleogeography, (2) Pleistocene climate fluctuations, and (3) contemporary topographic complexity on the spatial patterns of population genetic differentiation. Genetic structure and ABC analyses supported the presence of three genetic clusters and a sequential west-to-east splitting model that predated the last glacial maximum (LGM, c . 21 Kya). Landscape genetic analyses revealed that population genetic differentiation was primarily shaped by contemporary topographic complexity, but was not explained by any paleogeographic scenario or resistance distances based on climate suitability in the present or during the LGM. Overall, this study emphasizes the need of integrating information on ancient and contemporary landscape composition to get a comprehensive view of their relative importance to explain spatial patterns of genetic variation in organisms inhabiting regions with complex biogeographical histories.

  10. Bayesian tomographic reconstruction of microsystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salem, Sofia Fekih; Vabre, Alexandre; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

    2007-01-01

    The microtomography by X ray transmission plays an increasingly dominating role in the study and the understanding of microsystems. Within this framework, an experimental setup of high resolution X ray microtomography was developed at CEA-List to quantify the physical parameters related to the fluids flow in microsystems. Several difficulties rise from the nature of experimental data collected on this setup: enhanced error measurements due to various physical phenomena occurring during the image formation (diffusion, beam hardening), and specificities of the setup (limited angle, partial view of the object, weak contrast).To reconstruct the object we must solve an inverse problem. This inverse problem is known to be ill-posed. It therefore needs to be regularized by introducing prior information. The main prior information we account for is that the object is composed of a finite known number of different materials distributed in compact regions. This a priori information is introduced via a Gauss-Markov field for the contrast distributions with a hidden Potts-Markov field for the class materials in the Bayesian estimation framework. The computations are done by using an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique.In this paper, we present first the basic steps of the proposed algorithms. Then we focus on one of the main steps in any iterative reconstruction method which is the computation of forward and adjoint operators (projection and backprojection). A fast implementation of these two operators is crucial for the real application of the method. We give some details on the fast computation of these steps and show some preliminary results of simulations

  11. A Bayesian Belief Network Approach to Predict Damages Caused by Disturbance Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred Radl

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In mountain forests of Central Europe, storm and snow breakage as well as bark beetles are the prevailing major disturbances. The complex interrelatedness between climate, disturbance agents, and forest management increases the need for an integrative approach explicitly addressing the multiple interactions between environmental changes, forest management, and disturbance agents to support forest resource managers in adaptive management. Empirical data with a comprehensive coverage for modelling the susceptibility of forests and the impact of disturbance agents are rare, thus making probabilistic models, based on expert knowledge, one of the few modelling approaches that are able to handle uncertainties due to the available information. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs are a kind of probabilistic graphical model that has become very popular to practitioners and scientists mainly due to considerations of risk and uncertainties. In this contribution, we present a development methodology to define and parameterize BBNs based on expert elicitation and approximation. We modelled storm and bark beetle disturbances agents, analyzed effects of the development methodology on model structure, and evaluated behavior with stand data from Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. forests in southern Austria. The high vulnerability of the case study area according to different disturbance agents makes it particularly suitable for testing the BBN model.

  12. Former land use affects the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and biomass of forest herbs

    OpenAIRE

    Baeten, Lander; Verstraeten, Gorik; De Frenne, Pieter; Vanhellemont, Margot; Wuyts, Karen; Hermy, Martin; Verheyen, Kris

    2011-01-01

    The colonization rates of understorey plants into forests growing on former agricultural land differ remarkably among species. Different dispersal and recruitment largely account for the contrasting colonization rates, but different effects of the soil legacies of former agricultural land use on plant performance may also play a role. Seven herbaceous forest species were sampled in paired post-agricultural and ancient forest stands to study whether land-use history has an effect on the aboveg...

  13. Ancient DNA reveals genetic connections between early Di-Qiang and Han Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiawei; Zeng, Wen; Zhang, Ye; Ko, Albert Min-Shan; Li, Chunxiang; Zhu, Hong; Fu, Qiaomei; Zhou, Hui

    2017-12-04

    Ancient Di-Qiang people once resided in the Ganqing region of China, adjacent to the Central Plain area from where Han Chinese originated. While gene flow between the Di-Qiang and Han Chinese has been proposed, there is no evidence to support this view. Here we analyzed the human remains from an early Di-Qiang site (Mogou site dated ~4000 years old) and compared them to other ancient DNA across China, including an early Han-related site (Hengbei site dated ~3000 years old) to establish the underlying genetic relationship between the Di-Qiang and ancestors of Han Chinese. We found Mogou mtDNA haplogroups were highly diverse, comprising 14 haplogroups: A, B, C, D (D*, D4, D5), F, G, M7, M8, M10, M13, M25, N*, N9a, and Z. In contrast, Mogou males were all Y-DNA haplogroup O3a2/P201; specifically one male was further assigned to O3a2c1a/M117 using targeted unique regions on the non-recombining region of the Y-chromosome. We compared Mogou to 7 other ancient and 38 modern Chinese groups, in a total of 1793 individuals, and found that Mogou shared close genetic distances with Taojiazhai (a more recent Di-Qiang population), Hengbei, and Northern Han. We modeled their interactions using Approximate Bayesian Computation, and support was given to a potential admixture of ~13-18% between the Mogou and Northern Han around 3300-3800 years ago. Mogou harbors the earliest genetically identifiable Di-Qiang, ancestral to the Taojiazhai, and up to ~33% paternal and ~70% of its maternal haplogroups could be found in present-day Northern Han Chinese.

  14. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. W. Petty

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals – whether Bayesian or not – lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.

  15. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, G. W.

    2013-09-01

    An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M) of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument) noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals - whether Bayesian or not - lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.

  16. Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

  17. How few? Bayesian statistics in injury biomechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutcliffe, Hattie C; Schmidt, Allison L; Lucas, Joseph E; Bass, Cameron R

    2012-10-01

    In injury biomechanics, there are currently no general a priori estimates of how few specimens are necessary to obtain sufficiently accurate injury risk curves for a given underlying distribution. Further, several methods are available for constructing these curves, and recent methods include Bayesian survival analysis. This study used statistical simulations to evaluate the fidelity of different injury risk methods using limited sample sizes across four different underlying distributions. Five risk curve techniques were evaluated, including Bayesian techniques. For the Bayesian analyses, various prior distributions were assessed, each incorporating more accurate information. Simulated subject injury and biomechanical input values were randomly sampled from each underlying distribution, and injury status was determined by comparing these values. Injury risk curves were developed for this data using each technique for various small sample sizes; for each, analyses on 2000 simulated data sets were performed. Resulting median predicted risk values and confidence intervals were compared with the underlying distributions. Across conditions, the standard and Bayesian survival analyses better represented the underlying distributions included in this study, especially for extreme (1, 10, and 90%) risk. This study demonstrates that the value of the Bayesian analysis is the use of informed priors. As the mean of the prior approaches the actual value, the sample size necessary for good reproduction of the underlying distribution with small confidence intervals can be as small as 2. This study provides estimates of confidence intervals and number of samples to allow the selection of the most appropriate sample sizes given known information.

  18. A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2015-03-01

    In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

  19. Computationally efficient Bayesian inference for inverse problems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.

    2007-10-01

    Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and incomplete data, a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, and a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inferred results. Inverse problems - representing indirect estimation of model parameters, inputs, or structural components - can be fruitfully cast in this framework. Complex and computationally intensive forward models arising in physical applications, however, can render a Bayesian approach prohibitive. This difficulty is compounded by high-dimensional model spaces, as when the unknown is a spatiotemporal field. We present new algorithmic developments for Bayesian inference in this context, showing strong connections with the forward propagation of uncertainty. In particular, we introduce a stochastic spectral formulation that dramatically accelerates the Bayesian solution of inverse problems via rapid evaluation of a surrogate posterior. We also explore dimensionality reduction for the inference of spatiotemporal fields, using truncated spectral representations of Gaussian process priors. These new approaches are demonstrated on scalar transport problems arising in contaminant source inversion and in the inference of inhomogeneous material or transport properties. We also present a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in stochastic models, where intrinsic stochasticity may be intermingled with observational noise. Evaluation of a likelihood function may not be analytically tractable in these cases, and thus several alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes, operating on the product space of the observations and the parameters, are introduced.

  20. A comparison of machine learning and Bayesian modelling for molecular serotyping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Richard; Wernisch, Lorenz

    2017-08-11

    Streptococcus pneumoniae is a human pathogen that is a major cause of infant mortality. Identifying the pneumococcal serotype is an important step in monitoring the impact of vaccines used to protect against disease. Genomic microarrays provide an effective method for molecular serotyping. Previously we developed an empirical Bayesian model for the classification of serotypes from a molecular serotyping array. With only few samples available, a model driven approach was the only option. In the meanwhile, several thousand samples have been made available to us, providing an opportunity to investigate serotype classification by machine learning methods, which could complement the Bayesian model. We compare the performance of the original Bayesian model with two machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Machines and Random Forests. We present our results as an example of a generic strategy whereby a preliminary probabilistic model is complemented or replaced by a machine learning classifier once enough data are available. Despite the availability of thousands of serotyping arrays, a problem encountered when applying machine learning methods is the lack of training data containing mixtures of serotypes; due to the large number of possible combinations. Most of the available training data comprises samples with only a single serotype. To overcome the lack of training data we implemented an iterative analysis, creating artificial training data of serotype mixtures by combining raw data from single serotype arrays. With the enhanced training set the machine learning algorithms out perform the original Bayesian model. However, for serotypes currently lacking sufficient training data the best performing implementation was a combination of the results of the Bayesian Model and the Gradient Boosting Machine. As well as being an effective method for classifying biological data, machine learning can also be used as an efficient method for revealing subtle biological

  1. Coal occurrence in ancient sedimentary environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korkmaz, S. [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey)

    1994-12-31

    Coal is an organic matter and is a product of sedimentary environments. The most favourable areas for coal-forming flora are the shallow-swampy environments which are developed in various parts of sedimentary basins occurring along sea-shores, deltas and lakes. Sedimentary basins contain deposits that may be several hundred kilometers in length and width and a few thousand meters in thickness. Different environments of deposition and associated sediments may develop in a basin through all the periods of geological history, and the deposits may grade into one another both laterally and vertically. Since the environments of coal deposition are known, it is easy to deduce how and where to search for coal occurrences in an ancient sedimentary environment. Large coal deposits of economic interest occur in lacustrine, deltaic and fluvial environments, and lagoons and barrier islands. The most noticeable and characteristic features of the ancient depositional environments in which coal deposits occur are described. 60 refs., 8 figs.

  2. Sportive buildings in the ancient Rome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela TEJA

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Sport and physical education —in Ancient Rome-, looked back to the physical ideals of the Greeks. In contrast, there was also a specific encouragement of spectacles and performance or general entertainment during the Imperial Era. In order to cater for the diverse shows, sophisticated buildings were constructed in Rome, and reproduced in all the built-up areas throughout the Empire. In fact, besides the important circus network, the most emblematic of these being Maximo's Circus, amphitheatres, arenas and spa resorts were constructed, in addition to the Dominitian Stadium. The author studies the different types of «sporting» installations in Ancient Rome, considering the entertainments which took place in them: chariot races, gladiatorial combat, the hunting of wild beasts, naval combats, the stadium sports and, of course, the Roman passion for spas and hot baths.

  3. AMS radiocarbon dating of ancient Japanese sutras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, Hirotaka; Yoshizawa, Yasukazu; Nakamura, Toshio; Fujita, Keiko

    2000-01-01

    Radiocarbon ages of ancient Japanese sutras whose historical ages were known paleographically were measured by means of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Calibrated radiocarbon ages of five samples were consistent with the corresponding historical ages; the 'old wood effect' is negligible for ancient Japanese sutras. Japanese paper has been made from fresh branches grown within a few years and the interval from trimming off the branches to writing sutra on the paper is within one year. The good agreement between the calibrated radiocarbon ages and the historical ages is supported by such characteristics of Japanese paper. It is indicated in this study that Japanese sutra is a suitable sample for radiocarbon dating in the historic period because of little gap by 'old wood effect'

  4. AMS radiocarbon dating of ancient Japanese sutras

    CERN Document Server

    Oda, H; Nakamura, T; Fujita, K

    2000-01-01

    Radiocarbon ages of ancient Japanese sutras whose historical ages were known paleographically were measured by means of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Calibrated radiocarbon ages of five samples were consistent with the corresponding historical ages; the 'old wood effect' is negligible for ancient Japanese sutras. Japanese paper has been made from fresh branches grown within a few years and the interval from trimming off the branches to writing sutra on the paper is within one year. The good agreement between the calibrated radiocarbon ages and the historical ages is supported by such characteristics of Japanese paper. It is indicated in this study that Japanese sutra is a suitable sample for radiocarbon dating in the historic period because of little gap by 'old wood effect'.

  5. Lead in ancient Rome's city waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delile, Hugo; Blichert-Toft, Janne; Goiran, Jean-Philippe; Keay, Simon; Albarède, Francis

    2014-05-06

    It is now universally accepted that utilization of lead for domestic purposes and water distribution presents a major health hazard. The ancient Roman world was unaware of these risks. How far the gigantic network of lead pipes used in ancient Rome compromised public health in the city is unknown. Lead isotopes in sediments from the harbor of Imperial Rome register the presence of a strong anthropogenic component during the beginning of the Common Era and the Early Middle Ages. They demonstrate that the lead pipes of the water distribution system increased Pb contents in drinking water of the capital city by up to two orders of magnitude over the natural background. The Pb isotope record shows that the discontinuities in the pollution of the Tiber by lead are intimately entwined with the major issues affecting Late Antique Rome and its water distribution system.

  6. Lipids of aquatic sediments, recent and ancient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eglinton, G.; Hajibrahim, S. K.; Maxwell, J. R.; Quirke, J. M. E.; Shaw, G. J.; Volkman, J. K.; Wardroper, A. M. K.

    1979-01-01

    Computerized gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) is now an essential tool in the analysis of the complex mixtures of lipids (geolipids) encountered in aquatic sediments, both 'recent' (less than 1 million years old) and ancient. The application of MS, and particularly GC-MS, has been instrumental in the rapid development of organic geochemistry and environmental organic chemistry in recent years. The techniques used have resulted in the identification of numerous compounds of a variety of types in sediments. Most attention has been concentrated on molecules of limited size, mainly below 500 molecular mass, and of limited functionality, for examples, hydrocarbons, fatty acids and alcohols. Examples from recent studies (at Bristol) of contemporary, 'recent' and ancient sediments are presented and discussed.

  7. Evidence and Implications of Frequent Fires in Ancient Shrub Tundra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Higuera, P E; Brubaker, L B; Anderson, P M; Brown, T A; Kennedy, A T; Hu, F S

    2008-03-06

    Understanding feedbacks between terrestrial and atmospheric systems is vital for predicting the consequences of global change, particularly in the rapidly changing Arctic. Fire is a key process in this context, but the consequences of altered fire regimes in tundra ecosystems are rarely considered, largely because tundra fires occur infrequently on the modern landscape. We present paleoecological data that indicate frequent tundra fires in northcentral Alaska between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago. Charcoal and pollen from lake sediments reveal that ancient birchdominated shrub tundra burned as often as modern boreal forests in the region, every 144 years on average (+/- 90 s.d.; n = 44). Although paleoclimate interpretations and data from modern tundra fires suggest that increased burning was aided by low effective moisture, vegetation cover clearly played a critical role in facilitating the paleo-fires by creating an abundance of fine fuels. These records suggest that greater fire activity will likely accompany temperature-related increases in shrub-dominated tundra predicted for the 21st century and beyond. Increased tundra burning will have broad impacts on physical and biological systems as well as land-atmosphere interactions in the Arctic, including the potential to release stored organic carbon to the atmosphere.

  8. Sediment source apportionment in Laurel Hill Creek, PA, using Bayesian chemical mass balance and isotope fingerprinting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Heather; Massoudieh, Arash; Gellis, Allen C.

    2015-01-01

    A Bayesian chemical mass balance (CMB) approach was used to assess the contribution of potential sources for fluvial samples from Laurel Hill Creek in southwest Pennsylvania. The Bayesian approach provides joint probability density functions of the sources' contributions considering the uncertainties due to source and fluvial sample heterogeneity and measurement error. Both elemental profiles of sources and fluvial samples and 13C and 15N isotopes were used for source apportionment. The sources considered include stream bank erosion, forest, roads and agriculture (pasture and cropland). Agriculture was found to have the largest contribution, followed by stream bank erosion. Also, road erosion was found to have a significant contribution in three of the samples collected during lower-intensity rain events. The source apportionment was performed with and without isotopes. The results were largely consistent; however, the use of isotopes was found to slightly increase the uncertainty in most of the cases. The correlation analysis between the contributions of sources shows strong correlations between stream bank and agriculture, whereas roads and forest seem to be less correlated to other sources. Thus, the method was better able to estimate road and forest contributions independently. The hypothesis that the contributions of sources are not seasonally changing was tested by assuming that all ten fluvial samples had the same source contributions. This hypothesis was rejected, demonstrating a significant seasonal variation in the sources of sediments in the stream.

  9. Macroculture, Athletics and Democracy in ancient Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Economou, Emmanouel/Marios/Lazaros; Kyriazis, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    In the present essay we examine whether and how sports affected the emergence of democracy as a political phenomenon in Classical Greece. To achieve this we introduce in a model the concept of macroculture as a complex of mutually supporting values, norms and beliefs in various areas of human activity, like athletics, war, politics, etc. Then, we proceed through a historical review on the history of sports in Ancient Greece and we investigate various aspects of how and under which terms athle...

  10. Sportive buildings in the ancient Rome

    OpenAIRE

    Angela TEJA

    2013-01-01

    Sport and physical education —in Ancient Rome-, looked back to the physical ideals of the Greeks. In contrast, there was also a specific encouragement of spectacles and performance or general entertainment during the Imperial Era. In order to cater for the diverse shows, sophisticated buildings were constructed in Rome, and reproduced in all the built-up areas throughout the Empire. In fact, besides the important circus network, the most emblematic of these being Maximo's Circus, amphitheatre...

  11. Penile representations in ancient Greek art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rempelakos, L; Tsiamis, C; Poulakou-Rebelakou, E

    2013-12-01

    The presentation of the cult of phallus in ancient Greece and the artistic appearance of the phenomenon on vase figures and statues, as indicative of the significant role of the male genitalia in all fertility ceremonies. The examination of a great number of penile representations from the ancient Greek pottery and sculpture and the review of the ancient theater plays (satiric dramas and comedies ). Phallus in artistic representation is connected either with gods of fertility, such as the goat-footed and horned Pan or the ugly dwarf Priapus or the semi-animal nailed figures Satyrs, devotees of the god Dionysus accompanying him in all ritual orgiastic celebrations. Phallus also symbolizes good luck, health and sexuality: people bear or wear artificial phalli exactly like the actors as part of their costume or carry huge penises during the festive ritual processions. On the contrary, the Olympic gods or the ordinary mortals are not imaged ithyphallic; the ideal type of male beauty epitomized in classical sculpture, normally depicts genitals of average or less than average size. It is noteworthy that many of these images belong to athletes during or immediately after hard exercise with the penis shrunk. The normal size genitalia may have been simply a convention to distinguish normal people from the gods of sexuality and fertility, protectors of the reproductive process of Nature. The representation of the over-sized and erected genitalia on vase figures or statues of ancient Greek art is related to fertility gods such as Priapus, Pan and Satyrs and there is strong evidence that imagination and legend were replacing the scientific achievements in the field of erectile function for many centuries.

  12. Cosmologies of the ancient Mediterranean world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Fitzgerald

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Cosmology is concerned with the order of the universe and seeks to provide an account, not only of that order, but also of the mind or reason behind it. In antiquity, the cosmos was usually understood religiously, such that the cosmologies of the ancient Mediterranean world were either religious in nature or constituted a reaction to a religiously conceived understanding of the structures of the universe. The oldest form in which ancient cosmologies occur is myth, which, owing to its elasticity as a form, enabled them to be appropriated, adapted and used by different groups. In addition, different cosmologies co-existed within the same ancient culture, each having an authoritative status. This article provides an introductory overview of these cosmological myths and argues that a comparative approach is the most fruitful way to study them. Emphasis is given to certain prominent cosmological topics, including theogony (the genesis of the divine or the relationship of the divine to the cosmos, cosmogony (the genesis of the cosmos, and anthropogony (the origin of humans within the cosmos. Although these myths vary greatly in terms of content and how they envision the origin of the cosmos, many of them depict death as part of the structure of the universe.

  13. Bayesian analysis of MEG visual evoked responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, D.M.; George, J.S.; Wood, C.C.

    1999-04-01

    The authors developed a method for analyzing neural electromagnetic data that allows probabilistic inferences to be drawn about regions of activation. The method involves the generation of a large number of possible solutions which both fir the data and prior expectations about the nature of probable solutions made explicit by a Bayesian formalism. In addition, they have introduced a model for the current distributions that produce MEG and (EEG) data that allows extended regions of activity, and can easily incorporate prior information such as anatomical constraints from MRI. To evaluate the feasibility and utility of the Bayesian approach with actual data, they analyzed MEG data from a visual evoked response experiment. They compared Bayesian analyses of MEG responses to visual stimuli in the left and right visual fields, in order to examine the sensitivity of the method to detect known features of human visual cortex organization. They also examined the changing pattern of cortical activation as a function of time.

  14. Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability

  15. Bayesian modeling of unknown diseases for biosurveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yanna; Cooper, Gregory F

    2009-11-14

    This paper investigates Bayesian modeling of unknown causes of events in the context of disease-outbreak detection. We introduce a Bayesian approach that models and detects both (1) known diseases (e.g., influenza and anthrax) by using informative prior probabilities and (2) unknown diseases (e.g., a new, highly contagious respiratory virus that has never been seen before) by using relatively non-informative prior probabilities. We report the results of simulation experiments which support that this modeling method can improve the detection of new disease outbreaks in a population. A key contribution of this paper is that it introduces a Bayesian approach for jointly modeling both known and unknown causes of events. Such modeling has broad applicability in medical informatics, where the space of known causes of outcomes of interest is seldom complete.

  16. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    .... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

  17. Bayesian Inference in Polling Technique: 1992 Presidential Polls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, Eiki

    1994-01-01

    Explores the potential utility of Bayesian statistical methods in determining the predictability of multiple polls. Compares Bayesian techniques to the classical statistical method employed by pollsters. Considers these questions in the context of the 1992 presidential elections. (HB)

  18. The Bayesian Approach to Association

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Bayesian approach to Association focuses mainly on quantifying the physics of the domain. In the case of seismic association for instance let X be the set of all significant events (above some threshold) and their attributes, such as location, time, and magnitude, Y1 be the set of detections that are caused by significant events and their attributes such as seismic phase, arrival time, amplitude etc., Y2 be the set of detections that are not caused by significant events, and finally Y be the set of observed detections We would now define the joint distribution P(X, Y1, Y2, Y) = P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2) ; where the last term simply states that Y1 and Y2 are a partitioning of Y. Given the above joint distribution the inference problem is simply to find the X, Y1, and Y2 that maximizes posterior probability P(X, Y1, Y2| Y) which reduces to maximizing P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2). In this expression P(X) captures our prior belief about event locations. P(Y1 | X) captures notions of travel time, residual error distributions as well as detection and mis-detection probabilities. While P(Y2) captures the false detection rate of our seismic network. The elegance of this approach is that all of the assumptions are stated clearly in the model for P(X), P(Y1|X) and P(Y2). The implementation of the inference is merely a by-product of this model. In contrast some of the other methods such as GA hide a number of assumptions in the implementation details of the inference - such as the so called "driver cells." The other important aspect of this approach is that all seismic knowledge including knowledge from other domains such as infrasound and hydroacoustic can be included in the same model. So, we don't need to separately account for misdetections or merge seismic and infrasound events as a separate step. Finally, it should be noted that the objective of automatic association is to simplify the job of humans who are publishing seismic bulletins based on this

  19. Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide

    CERN Document Server

    Haug, Anton J

    2012-01-01

    A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation

  20. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  1. Motion Learning Based on Bayesian Program Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Meng-Zhen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The concept of virtual human has been highly anticipated since the 1980s. By using computer technology, Human motion simulation could generate authentic visual effect, which could cheat human eyes visually. Bayesian Program Learning train one or few motion data, generate new motion data by decomposing and combining. And the generated motion will be more realistic and natural than the traditional one.In this paper, Motion learning based on Bayesian program learning allows us to quickly generate new motion data, reduce workload, improve work efficiency, reduce the cost of motion capture, and improve the reusability of data.

  2. Bayesian inference and the parametric bootstrap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efron, Bradley

    2013-01-01

    The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families, and are particularly simple starting from Jeffreys invariant prior. Because of the i.i.d. nature of bootstrap sampling, familiar formulas describe the computational accuracy of the Bayes estimates. Besides computational methods, the theory provides a connection between Bayesian and frequentist analysis. Efficient algorithms for the frequentist accuracy of Bayesian inferences are developed and demonstrated in a model selection example. PMID:23843930

  3. Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Gh.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1–16 (2012] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule, mesoscopic (Simpson rule, and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision. Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.

  4. Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Gh.; Adam, S.

    2016-02-01

    Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1-16 (2012)] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule), mesoscopic (Simpson rule), and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision). Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.

  5. Quantifying Ancient Maya Land Use Legacy Effects on Contemporary Rainforest Canopy Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica N. Hightower

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Human land use legacies have significant and long-lasting ecological impacts across landscapes. Investigating ancient (>400 years legacy effects can be problematic due to the difficulty in detecting specific, historic land uses, especially those hidden beneath dense canopies. Caracol, the largest (~200 km2 Maya archaeological site in Belize, was abandoned ca. A.D. 900, leaving behind myriad structures, causeways, and an extensive network of agricultural terraces that persist beneath the architecturally complex tropical forest canopy. Airborne LiDAR enables the detection of these below-canopy archaeological features while simultaneously providing a detailed record of the aboveground 3-dimensional canopy organization, which is indicative of a forest’s ecological function. Here, this remote sensing technology is used to determine the effects of ancient land use legacies on contemporary forest structure. Canopy morphology was assessed by extracting LiDAR point clouds (0.25 ha plots from LiDAR-identified terraced (n = 150 and non-terraced (n = 150 areas on low (0°–10°, medium (10°–20°, and high (>20° slopes. We calculated the average canopy height, canopy openness, and vertical diversity from the LiDAR returns, with topographic features (i.e., slope, elevation, and aspect as covariates. Using a PerMANOVA procedure, we determined that forests growing on agricultural terraces exhibited significantly different canopy structure from those growing on non-terraced land. Terraces appear to mediate the effect of slope, resulting in less structural variation between slope and non-sloped land and yielding taller, more closed, more vertically diverse forests. These human land uses abandoned >1000 years ago continue to impact contemporary tropical rainforests having implications related to arboreal habitat and carbon storage.

  6. Homosexuality according to ancient Greek physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laios, K; Moschos, M M; Koukaki, E; Kontaxaki, M-I; Androutsos, G

    2017-01-01

    Homosexuality and pedophilia in ancient Greece greatly concerned many researchers who were mainly interested in highlighting the social aspect of this phenomenon in ancient Greek society. An important source on the subject was the paintings of a man and his lover in attic black and red figured pottery, up to the end of the 5th century BC. Another main source was the information that derived from the texts of ancient Greek literature, especially poetry. Homosexuality was not only referring to relationships between males, but it was also manifested in lesbian love. It is believed that in the Homeric world homosexuality was not favored. In Greek society of the archaic period, the restriction of women at home, the satisfaction of sexual needs with courtesans, the marriage for the purpose of maintaining and managing the property, put women aside, marginalizing them in terms of social life, impeding the cultivation of emotional relationships between sexes. At the same time, in the society of those times, the aristocratic ideal, the constant communication of men during military training and the war, the male nudity in sports and the promotion of beauty and bravery in athletic contests, as well as the gatherings and the entertainment of men at the symposia, created a suitable substrate in which male homosexuality could develop. In this context, pedophile relationships were developed mainly during the archaic period, as recorded on vase paintings, where a mature man developed a special relationship with a teenager of the same social class. The mature man had the role of mentor for the juvenile, he would look after him and cover his living expenses and education cost. In this relationship, exhibiting predominantly the social dimension of an initiation process and introduction to adult life, the erotic homosexual intercourse could find a place to flourish. The above-mentioned relationship could not last forever, given that this would later transform into an emotional

  7. Urology and the scientific method in ancient Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordetsky, Jennifer; O'Brien, Jeanne

    2009-03-01

    To examine the practice of urology in ancient Egypt using various sources, including the Edwin Smith and Ebers Papyri. The sources of knowledge of ancient Egyptian medicine include medical papyri, paleopathology, art, and hieroglyphic carvings. A brief overview of the medical system in ancient Egypt was completed, in addition to an examination of the training and specialization of the physician in the ancient world. Urologic diseases treated in ancient Egypt and some of the first documented urologic surgeries are presented. Finally, we studied the role of the physician-priest and the intertwined use of religion and magic in ancient Egyptian medicine. The same medical conditions urologists treat in the office today were methodically documented thousands of years ago. Medical papyri show evidence that the ancient Egyptians practiced medicine using a scientific method based on the clinical observation of disease. This has been exemplified by the Edwin Smith Surgical Papyrus, a collection of surgical cases that gives a diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis for each ailment, and the discovery of medical specialization in ancient Egypt, giving us perhaps the world's first urologists. Intertwined with the scientific method was also the rich mysticism and religion of ancient Egypt, which were integral components of the healing process. We present an overview of the practice of urology in ancient Egypt, in terms of both pharmacologic and surgical intervention, as well as with a look into the religion of medicine practiced at that time.

  8. Bayesian inference for multivariate point processes observed at sparsely distributed times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper; Aukema, B.H.

    We consider statistical and computational aspects of simulation-based Bayesian inference for a multivariate point process which is only observed at sparsely distributed times. For specicity we consider a particular data set which has earlier been analyzed by a discrete time model involving unknown...... normalizing constants. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using continuous time processes compared to discrete time processes in the setting of the present paper as well as other spatial-temporal situations. Keywords: Bark beetle, conditional intensity, forest entomology, Markov chain Monte Carlo......, missing data, prediction, spatial-temporal process....

  9. Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

    2013-02-01

    Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

  10. A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    2013-01-01

    representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...

  11. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Schoot, Rens|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304833207; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/081831218

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  12. A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  13. Anthropogenic aerosols as a source of ancient dissolved organic matter in glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubbins, Aron; Hood, Eran; Raymond, Peter A.; Aiken, George R.; Sleighter, Rachel L.; Hernes, Peter J.; Butman, David; Hatcher, Patrick G.; Striegl, Robert G.; Schuster, Paul; Abdulla, Hussain A. N.; Vermilyea, Andrew W.; Scott, Durelle T.; Spencer, Robert G. M.

    2012-03-01

    Glacier-derived dissolved organic matter represents a quantitatively significant source of ancient, yet highly bioavailable carbon to downstream ecosystems. This finding runs counter to logical perceptions of age-reactivity relationships, in which the least reactive material withstands degradation the longest and is therefore the oldest. The remnants of ancient peatlands and forests overrun by glaciers have been invoked as the source of this organic matter. Here, we examine the radiocarbon age and chemical composition of dissolved organic matter in snow, glacier surface water, ice and glacier outflow samples from Alaska to determine the origin of the organic matter. Low levels of compounds derived from vascular plants indicate that the organic matter does not originate from forests or peatlands. Instead, we show that the organic matter on the surface of the glaciers is radiocarbon depleted, consistent with an anthropogenic aerosol source. Fluorescence spectrophotometry measurements reveal the presence of protein-like compounds of microbial or aerosol origin. In addition, ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry measurements document the presence of combustion products found in anthropogenic aerosols. Based on the presence of these compounds, we suggest that aerosols derived from fossil fuel burning are a source of pre-aged organic matter to glacier surfaces. Furthermore, we show that the molecular signature of the organic matter is conserved in snow, glacier water and outflow, suggesting that the anthropogenic carbon is exported relatively unchanged in glacier outflows.

  14. Anthropogenic aerosols as a source of ancient dissolved organic matter in glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubbins, Aron; Hood, Eran; Raymond, Peter A.; Aiken, George R.; Sleighter, Rachel L.; Hernes, Peter J.; Butman, David; Hatcher, Patrick G.; Striegl, Robert G.; Schuster, Paul F.; Abdulla, Hussain A.N.; Vermilyea, Andrew W.; Scott, Durelle T.; Spencer, Robert G.M.

    2012-01-01

    Glacier-derived dissolved organic matter represents a quantitatively significant source of ancient, yet highly bioavailable carbon to downstream ecosystems. This finding runs counter to logical perceptions of age–reactivity relationships, in which the least reactive material withstands degradation the longest and is therefore the oldest. The remnants of ancient peatlands and forests overrun by glaciers have been invoked as the source of this organic matter. Here, we examine the radiocarbon age and chemical composition of dissolved organic matter in snow, glacier surface water, ice and glacier outflow samples from Alaska to determine the origin of the organic matter. Low levels of compounds derived from vascular plants indicate that the organic matter does not originate from forests or peatlands. Instead, we show that the organic matter on the surface of the glaciers is radiocarbon depleted, consistent with an anthropogenic aerosol source. Fluorescence spectrophotometry measurements reveal the presence of protein-like compounds of microbial or aerosol origin. In addition, ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry measurements document the presence of combustion products found in anthropogenic aerosols. Based on the presence of these compounds, we suggest that aerosols derived from fossil fuel burning are a source of pre-aged organic matter to glacier surfaces. Furthermore, we show that the molecular signature of the organic matter is conserved in snow, glacier water and outflow, suggesting that the anthropogenic carbon is exported relatively unchanged in glacier outflows.

  15. How People Domesticated Amazonian Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Levis

    2018-01-01

    useful perennial plants occur in multi-species patches around archaeological sites, and that the dominant species are still managed by local people, suggesting long-term persistence of ancient cultural practices. The management practices we identified have transformed plant species abundance and floristic composition through the creation of diverse forest patches rich in edible perennial plants that enhanced food production and food security in Amazonia.

  16. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  17. A study on provenance relation between Jiaotanxia ancient Guan porcelain and Qingliangsi ancient Ru porcelain by NAA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Rongwu; Feng Songlin; Huang Zhongxiang; Jia Xiuqin

    2004-01-01

    11 samples of ancient Chinese Ru porcelain from Qingliangsi kiln, 23 samples of ancient Chinese Guan porcelain from Jiaotanxia kiln and 4 samples of modern archaized Guan porcelain were obtained to determine the contents of elements in each of them by neutron activation analysis (NAA). The NAA data were further analyzed using fuzzy cluster analysis to obtain the fuzzy cluster trend diagrams for the bodies' samples and the glazes samples respectively. The analysis shows that the raw material origins of the Jiaotanxia ancient Chinese Guan porcelain bodies samples are very concentrated; those of the Qingliangsi ancient Chinese Ru porcelain bodies samples are a little dispersed; those of ancient Chinese Guan porcelain glazes samples are relatively concentrated; those of ancient Chinese Ru porcelain glazes samples are dispersed; and the origins of the raw material of ancient Chinese Guan porcelain glazes samples are obviously different from those of ancient Chinese Ru porcelain glazes samples. The bodies samples and glazes samples of Jiaotanxia ancient Chinese Guan porcelain and those of Qingliangsi ancient Chinese Ru porcelain have some difference but can be compared with each other. (authors)

  18. A Bayesian perspective on some replacement strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzuchi, Thomas A.; Soyer, Refik

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for determining optimal replacement strategies. This approach enables us to formally incorporate, express, and update our uncertainty when determining optimal replacement strategies. We develop relevant expressions for both the block replacement protocol with minimal repair and the age replacement protocol and illustrate the use of our approach with real data

  19. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  20. Sequential Bayesian technique: An alternative approach for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper proposes a sequential Bayesian approach similar to Kalman filter for estimating reliability growth or decay of software. The main advantage of proposed method is that it shows the variation of the parameter over a time, as new failure data become available. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated with ...

  1. Sequential Bayesian technique: An alternative approach for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    MS received 8 October 2007; revised 15 July 2008. Abstract. This paper proposes a sequential Bayesian approach similar to Kalman filter for estimating reliability growth or decay of software. The main advantage of proposed method is that it shows the variation of the parameter over a time, as new failure data become ...

  2. Theory change and Bayesian statistical inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romeijn, Jan-Willem

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent

  3. Bayesian mixture models for partially verified data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostoulas, Polychronis; Browne, William J.; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian mixture models can be used to discriminate between the distributions of continuous test responses for different infection stages. These models are particularly useful in case of chronic infections with a long latent period, like Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection...

  4. Non-Linear Approximation of Bayesian Update

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2016-06-23

    We develop a non-linear approximation of expensive Bayesian formula. This non-linear approximation is applied directly to Polynomial Chaos Coefficients. In this way, we avoid Monte Carlo sampling and sampling error. We can show that the famous Kalman Update formula is a particular case of this update.

  5. Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

    2003-01-01

    The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

  6. Comparison between Fisherian and Bayesian approach to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of its simplicity and optimality properties is normally used for two group cases. However, Bayesian approach is found to be better than Fisher's approach because of its low misclassification error rate. Keywords: variance-covariance matrices, centroids, prior probability, mahalanobis distance, probability of misclassification ...

  7. Neural network classification - A Bayesian interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Eric A.

    1990-01-01

    The relationship between minimizing a mean squared error and finding the optimal Bayesian classifier is reviewed. This provides a theoretical interpretation for the process by which neural networks are used in classification. A number of confidence measures are proposed to evaluate the performance of the neural network classifier within a statistical framework.

  8. Bayesian Estimation of Item Response Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutakawa, Robert K.; Lin, Hsin Ying

    1986-01-01

    Item response curves for a set of binary responses are studied from a Bayesian viewpoint of estimating the item parameters. For the two-parameter logistic model with normally distributed ability, restricted bivariate beta priors are used to illustrate the computation of the posterior mode via the EM algorithm. (Author/LMO)

  9. Speech Segmentation Using Bayesian Autoregressive Changepoint Detector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sovka

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available This submission is devoted to the study of the Bayesian autoregressive changepoint detector (BCD and its use for speech segmentation. Results of the detector application to autoregressive signals as well as to real speech are given. BCD basic properties are described and discussed. The novel two-step algorithm consisting of cepstral analysis and BCD for automatic speech segmentation is suggested.

  10. Bayesian networks: a combined tuning heuristic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolt, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    One of the issues in tuning an output probability of a Bayesian network by changing multiple parameters is the relative amount of the individual parameter changes. In an existing heuristic parameters are tied such that their changes induce locally a maximal change of the tuned probability. This

  11. Exploiting structure in cooperative Bayesian games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oliehoek, F.A.; Whiteson, S.; Spaan, M.T.J.; de Freitas, N.; Murphy, K.

    2012-01-01

    Cooperative Bayesian games (BGs) can model decision-making problems for teams of agents under imperfect information, but require space and computation time that is exponential in the number of agents. While agent independence has been used to mitigate these problems in perfect information settings,

  12. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

  13. An Approximate Bayesian Fundamental Frequency Estimator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Jensen, Søren Holdt

    2012-01-01

    Joint fundamental frequency and model order estimation is an important problem in several applications such as speech and music processing. In this paper, we develop an approximate estimation algorithm of these quantities using Bayesian inference. The inference about the fundamental frequency...

  14. Erratum Bayesian and Dempster–Shafer fusion

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    (1) The paper “Bayesian and Dempster–Shafer fusion” contains a mistake in Appendix A, although this has not affected anything in the body of the paper. On page 172, the authors state correctly that the matrix F is, in general, not square, but then in (A.22) they take its determinant. This confusion resulted because the ...

  15. On local optima in learning bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Jens; Kocka, Tomas; Pena, Jose

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes and evaluates the k-greedy equivalence search algorithm (KES) for learning Bayesian networks (BNs) from complete data. The main characteristic of KES is that it allows a trade-off between greediness and randomness, thus exploring different good local optima. When greediness...

  16. Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric D. Johnson

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.

  17. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support. Keywords: Morphological analysis, Bayesian networks, strategic decision support. ORiON Vol. 23 (2) 2007: pp.

  18. Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha

    2018-04-01

    The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.

  19. Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua

    2013-01-01

    The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…

  20. Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romeyn, Jan-Willem

    2008-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent

  1. Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2018-05-01

    Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Default Bayesian Estimation of the Fundamental Frequency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Jensen, Søren Holdt

    2013-01-01

    Joint fundamental frequency and model order esti- mation is an important problem in several applications. In this paper, a default estimation algorithm based on a minimum of prior information is presented. The algorithm is developed in a Bayesian framework, and it can be applied to both real...

  3. Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for

  4. Forecasting nuclear power supply with Bayesian autoregression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.; Solow, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    We explore the possibility of forecasting the quarterly US generation of electricity from nuclear power using a Bayesian autoregression model. In terms of forecasting accuracy, this approach compares favorably with both the Department of Energy's current forecasting methodology and their more recent efforts using ARIMA models, and it is extremely easy and inexpensive to implement. (author)

  5. Bayesian Benefits for the Pragmatic Researcher

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Morey, R.D.; Lee, M.D.

    2016-01-01

    The practical advantages of Bayesian inference are demonstrated here through two concrete examples. In the first example, we wish to learn about a criminal’s IQ: a problem of parameter estimation. In the second example, we wish to quantify and track support in favor of the null hypothesis that Adam

  6. Bayesian evaluation of inequality constrained hypotheses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, X.; Mulder, J.; Deković, M.; Hoijtink, H.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian evaluation of inequality constrained hypotheses enables researchers to investigate their expectations with respect to the structure among model parameters. This article proposes an approximate Bayes procedure that can be used for the selection of the best of a set of inequality constrained

  7. Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-05-10

    Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Low Complexity Bayesian Single Channel Source Separation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beierholm, Thomas; Pedersen, Brian Dam; Winther, Ole

    2004-01-01

    We propose a simple Bayesian model for performing single channel speech separation using factorized source priors in a sliding window linearly transformed domain. Using a one dimensional mixture of Gaussians to model each band source leads to fast tractable inference for the source signals. Simul...

  9. Evidence Estimation for Bayesian Partially Observed MRFs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Welling, M.

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian estimation in Markov random fields is very hard due to the intractability of the partition function. The introduction of hidden units makes the situation even worse due to the presence of potentially very many modes in the posterior distribution. For the first time we propose a

  10. Quantifying Registration Uncertainty With Sparse Bayesian Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Folgoc, Loic; Delingette, Herve; Criminisi, Antonio; Ayache, Nicholas

    2017-02-01

    We investigate uncertainty quantification under a sparse Bayesian model of medical image registration. Bayesian modelling has proven powerful to automate the tuning of registration hyperparameters, such as the trade-off between the data and regularization functionals. Sparsity-inducing priors have recently been used to render the parametrization itself adaptive and data-driven. The sparse prior on transformation parameters effectively favors the use of coarse basis functions to capture the global trends in the visible motion while finer, highly localized bases are introduced only in the presence of coherent image information and motion. In earlier work, approximate inference under the sparse Bayesian model was tackled in an efficient Variational Bayes (VB) framework. In this paper we are interested in the theoretical and empirical quality of uncertainty estimates derived under this approximate scheme vs. under the exact model. We implement an (asymptotically) exact inference scheme based on reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to characterize the posterior distribution of the transformation and compare the predictions of the VB and MCMC based methods. The true posterior distribution under the sparse Bayesian model is found to be meaningful: orders of magnitude for the estimated uncertainty are quantitatively reasonable, the uncertainty is higher in textureless regions and lower in the direction of strong intensity gradients.

  11. Adaptive bayesian analysis for binomial proportions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Das, Sonali

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors consider the problem of statistical inference of binomial proportions for non-matched, correlated samples, under the Bayesian framework. Such inference can arise when the same group is observed at a different number of times with the aim...

  12. Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

    KAUST Repository

    Matthies, Hermann G.

    2016-02-13

    In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

  13. Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2011-08-01

    The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

  14. The provenance investigation on ancient chinese Ru porcelains by NAA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Zhengyao; Wang Jie; Chen Songhua

    1997-01-01

    The 28 samples of glazes and bodies of ancient Chinese Ru porcelains are analyzed by neutron activation. The 36 element contents in each sample are determined. The neutron activation analysis (NAA) data are analyzed by fuzzy cluster. The trend cluster diagram is obtained. The result shows that the ancient Chinese Ru porcelains were most probably from the same raw material source though they were from different time, fired in different kilns and in different colors. The near provenance relation between ancient Jun porcelain and ancient Ru porcelain is preliminarily analyzed. The two modern Ru porcelains approximate to ancient Ru porcelains, one becomes estranged from ancient Ru porcelains. Jingdezhen porcelain is unconcerned with Ru porcelains

  15. Design and development of an ancient Chinese document recognition system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Liangrui; Xiu, Pingping; Ding, Xiaoqing

    2003-12-01

    The digitization of ancient Chinese documents presents new challenges to OCR (Optical Character Recognition) research field due to the large character set of ancient Chinese characters, variant font types, and versatile document layout styles, as these documents are historical reflections to the thousands of years of Chinese civilization. After analyzing the general characteristics of ancient Chinese documents, we present a solution for recognition of ancient Chinese documents with regular font-types and layout-styles. Based on the previous work on multilingual OCR in TH-OCR system, we focus on the design and development of two key technologies which include character recognition and page segmentation. Experimental results show that the developed character recognition kernel of 19,635 Chinese characters outperforms our original traditional Chinese recognition kernel; Benchmarked test on printed ancient Chinese books proves that the proposed system is effective for regular ancient Chinese documents.

  16. Ancient DNA sequences point to a large loss of mitochondrial genetic diversity in the saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica) since the Pleistocene

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campos, Paula; Kristensen, Tommy; Orlando, Ludovic Antoine Alexandre

    2010-01-01

    of the Soviet Union, after which its populations were reduced by over 95%. We have analysed the mitochondrial control region sequence variation of 27 ancient and 38 modern specimens, to assay how the species' genetic diversity has changed since the Pleistocene. Phylogenetic analyses reveal the existence of two...... Bayesian Computation analyses show the observed data is more compatible with a drastic population size reduction (c. 66-77%) following either a demographic bottleneck in the course of the Holocene or late Pleistocene, or a geographic fragmentation (followed by local extinction of one subpopulation...

  17. Unriddling of ancient-medieval culture by PIXE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uda, M.

    1997-01-01

    Some examples are given for unriddling of ancient-medieval culture by PIXE. Effectiveness of PIXE to analyze art and archaeological objects is also explained. Objects employed here are 1) red, yellow, blue and white pigments painted on sun-dried bricks excavated in Egypt, 2) ancient glass beads used in the Near East, 3) South American mummy hair, 4) ancient slag excavated from Kansai-district, Japan 5) ink used by Galileo Galilei and 6) Renaissance style enameled gold jewelry. (author)

  18. Re-discovering ancient wheat varieties as functional foods

    OpenAIRE

    Cooper, Raymond

    2015-01-01

    With the gluten-free food market worth almost $1.6 bn in 2011, there is every reason for renewed interest in ancient grains. This resurgent interest is expressed in re-discovering ancient varieties as functional foods. In particular, people affected by celiac disease have to avoid all gluten in their diet and several ancient grains may offer an important alternative.

  19. Ancient DNA and the tropics: a rodent's tale

    OpenAIRE

    Gutiérrez-García, Tania A.; Vázquez-Domínguez, Ella; Arroyo-Cabrales, Joaquín; Kuch, Melanie; Enk, Jacob; King, Christine; Poinar, Hendrik N.

    2014-01-01

    Most genetic studies of Holocene fauna have been performed with ancient samples from dry and cold regions, in which preservation of fossils is facilitated and molecular damage is reduced. Ancient DNA work from tropical regions has been precluded owing to factors that limit DNA preservation (e.g. temperature, hydrolytic damage). We analysed ancient DNA from rodent jawbones identified as Ototylomys phyllotis, found in Holocene and Late Pleistocene stratigraphic layers from Loltún, a humid tropi...

  20. Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

  1. Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

    Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

  2. [Bow legged adjectives in ancient literature].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Frantisek; Steger, Florian

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the issue of capturing the medical entity called 'curved legs' in a terminologically exact way. In so doing, it refers to the long-lasting process of differentiation of exact nuances of meaning in Ancient Greek and Latin. In the chronological perusal of ancient Greek literature, it becomes evident that the various adjectives employed are often vague when looking at non-medical literature. By contrast, in the Hippocratic corpus these terms are for the first time annotated with explanations intended to lead to a more precise understanding of the described deformity. Further attempts of differentiation can be found in the writings of Galen, who not only distinguishes between outward and inward curvatures, but also between deformities of the thigh and lower leg as well as between pathological and natural curvatures. Latin literature also provides a series of adjectives that were initially often used in the meaning of 'curved' but it was not until Celsus that these were differentiated with respect to the type and direction of the curvature. When comparing Greek and Latin adjectives, it turns out that though the Latin term blaesus can be traced back etymologically to the Greek word beta lambda alpha iota sigma ó zeta, the meaning of beta lambda alpha iota sigma ó zeta does not fully correspond to that of the Latin word. It is not before the later common transliteration of Greek words that this adjective took on the meaning of beta lambda alpha iota sigma ó zeta; however, this was finally lost again. In summary, the article concludes that exact word meanings in ancient literature are often unclear and precise ascriptions of meanings are inconsistent. In the case of "curved legs," this has led to misunderstandings regarding the respective types and directions of the curvature.

  3. Texas' forests, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    James W. Bentley; Consuelo Brandeis; Jason A. Cooper; Christopher M. Oswalt; Sonja N. Oswalt; KaDonna Randolph

    2014-01-01

    This bulletin describes forest resources of the State of Texas at the time of the 2008 forest inventory. This bulletin addresses forest area, volume, growth, removals, mortality, forest health, timber product output, and the economy of the forest sector.

  4. Forest drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.W. Skaggs; S. Tian; G.M. Chescheir; Devendra Amatya; M.A. Youssef

    2016-01-01

    Most of the world's 4030 million ha of forested lands are situated on hilly, mountainous or well-drained upland landscapes where improved drainage is not needed. However, there are millions of hectares of poorly drained forested lands where excessively wet soil conditions limit tree growth and access for harvesting and other management activities. Improved or...

  5. Surgical history of ancient China: part 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Louis

    2009-12-01

    Although surgery was an accepted and quite proficient craft very early on in Chinese history, it has deteriorated through the ages. Despite the fact that anaesthetic agents in major surgery were employed during the third century, Chinese surgery is conspicuous by its stagnation. Reverence for the dead, filial piety, abhorrence of shedding blood and other conservative attitudes make it impossible for any accurate knowledge of the human anatomy and physiology, without which surgery cannot progress. This article surveys some highlights in the history of surgery in ancient China and examines the factors responsible for its decline. The second concluding part deals with orthopaedics.

  6. Safety analysis of an ancient iron structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kweon, Young Gak; Yoon, Byeng Hyun; Lim, Jae Kyun; Lee, Sung Bum

    2002-01-01

    Safety analysis of an ancient iron structure, Danggan, constructed over than a thousand years ago was performed. The structure is consisted of 24 iron cylinders of which the total height is about 15.4 m. The analysis was done by the ultrasonic test to measure thickness of each cylinder, the radiographic test to investigate the inside of cylinders, the measurement of inclination of the structure and the structural analysis to estimate the stress level applied by the wind. Results showed that Danggan structure was on state being well safe at present, but it could be dangerous when the inclination of the structure becomes severely progressive.

  7. Colchicine: an ancient drug with novel applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasgeb, B; Kornreich, D; McGuinn, K; Okon, L; Brownell, I; Sackett, D L

    2018-02-01

    Colchicine is a treatment for gout that has been used for more than a millennium. It is the treatment of choice for familial Mediterranean fever and its associated complication, amyloidosis. The 2009 U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval of colchicine as a new drug had research consequences. Recent investigations with large cohorts of patients with gout who have been taking colchicine for years have demonstrated novel applications within oncology, immunology, cardiology and dermatology. Some emerging dermatological uses include the treatment of epidermolysis bullosa acquisita, leucocytoclastic vasculitis, aphthous stomatitis and others. In this work we relate the history and the new horizon of this ancient medicine. © 2017 British Association of Dermatologists.

  8. Suicide and parasuicide in ancient personal testimonies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooff, A J

    1993-01-01

    Attitudes toward suicide have not always been the same as they are today, and understanding the ideas of other cultures and times could enable us to reexamine contemporary conceptions of self-killing. Greek and Roman personal testimonies were examined to investigate the thesis that ancients did not see suicide as caused by psychic or emotional forces. Indeed, though the documents of antiquity give us a closer look into personal motives, they demonstrate that even would-be self-killers themselves wished to regard suicide as a rational act of volition.

  9. [Ancient clinical application of massage therapy on navel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xing-Yue; Ma, Yu-Xiao; Tian, Si-Sheng; Gao, Shu-Zhong

    2014-07-01

    To further explore the clinical effect of massage therapy on navel,the related ancient literatures were arranged and analyzed,and several methods in ancient clinical were introduced, including stroking navel, rubbing navel, pushing navel, tapping navel and puffing navel. In addition, the theoretical basis of massage therapy on navel were discussed. The results revealed ancient literatures offered abundant theoretical basis to modern clinical practice, and there were evidences of treating gastroenteric and gynecological diseases with this therapy. Comprehensively, through the study of ancient literatures and modern research, therapy of massage on navel is believed to be promising and will gain popularity in the future.

  10. China: A Simulation of Ancient Chung Kuo, the World's Most Ancient Civilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargent, Marcia; Baral, Wanda

    This simulation allows students to participate in the "ways" of ancient Chinese history and culture. The unit is organized into five major phases or "li's." Students may spend about one week on activities in each "li" which focuses on a major aspect of Chinese history, culture, or geography. In each "li"…

  11. History through Art and Architecture: Ancient Greek Architecture [and] Ancient Greek Sculpture. Teacher's Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Ann

    This document consists of two teaching manuals designed to accompany a commercially-available "multicultural, interdisciplinary video program," consisting of four still videotape programs (72 minutes, 226 frames), one teaching poster, and these two manuals. "Teacher's Manual: Ancient Greek Architecture" covers: "Ancient…

  12. Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

    2015-08-01

    Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

  13. [Heat and Fever in ancient Greek physiology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, In-Sok

    2009-12-01

    This paper aims at clarifying the relationship of physiological heat and pathological heat(fever) using the theoretical scheme of Georges Canguilhem as is argued in his famous book The Normal and the Pathologic. Ancient authors had presented various views on the innate heat and pathological heat. Some argued that there is only pathological heat while others, like Galen, distinguished two different kinds of heat. Galen was the first medial author who had the clear notion of the relationship between the normal heat and the pathological heat. He conceptualized their difference as the heat conforming to nature (kata phusin) and the heat against nature (para phusin). However, the Peripatetic authors, such as ps-Alexander Aphrodisias, who laid more emphasis on physiology tended to regard pathology in continuation with physiology as Claude Bernard attempted to do it. Therefore, Canguilhem's theoretical scheme turns out to be very useful in analysing the relationship of normal heat and pathological heat as is manifested in ancient Greek physiology.

  14. Antikythera Mechanism and the Ancient World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Safronov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this historical review, the opinions of Ancient Greece philosophers, astronomers, and poets such as Thales Milesian, Pythagoras, Plato, Eudoxus, Aristotle, Archimedes, Cicero, Diogenes Laertius, Iamblichus, Plutarch, Homer, and Aratus about the planet position calculations and about the possibility of predictions of natural phenomena are analyzed. The planet positions were predicted before Eudoxus (probably before Philolaus by a spindle of Ananke and after Eudoxus by Antikythera mechanism. Following Pythagoras and Plato, it is established that the regular seismoacoustic observations were performed. In the Ancient World in the Mediterranean area, there was an extensive network of acoustic stations (~10 pcs, which were located in close proximity to the geologic faults. Also, it is shown that the ship that was carrying Antikythera mechanism (A-Ship was built in 244 BC in Syracuse with direct participation of Archimedes and Archias from Corinthian. Later, the A-Ship was a part of the Roman Republic safety system. The grain volumes, which were delivered to Rome city by large grain vessels, and the population of Rome city in the period 74–71 BC were estimated. Planetary calculator might be used for the chronology of the historical events as a backward prediction in addition to present Radiocarbon dating and Dendrochronology methods.

  15. Ancient eclipses and the Earth's rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, L. V.; Stephenson, F. R.

    Observations of ancient and medieval eclipses are compared with predictions to measure changes in the Earth's rotation over the past 2500 years. The observations are treated in two broad categories: untimed and timed. An untimed observation must have the place and date, but not the time, as the special geometry of the eclipse path essentially supplies this. A timed observation requires the time of day of the eclipse as well as the date and place. In the period 700BC to AD1600 we have found 106 reliable untimed and 343 timed observations of solar and lunar eclipses recorded by the ancient/medieval civilizations of Babylon, China, the Arab Dominions and Europe. Analyses of these two independent datasets lead to the conclusion that the rate of rotation is decreasing, such that the length of the day (lod) is increasing on the average by 1.8 milliseconds per century (ms/cy). This is consistent to within the accuracy of measurement with the resultant sum of a tidal increase of 2.3 ms/cy and a decrease of 0.5 ms/cy due to post-glacial uplift following the end of the last ice-age. Besides these secular changes, there is clear evidence of fluctuations in the lod of several ms on a timescale of centuries.

  16. Mitochondrial DNA analysis of ancient Peruvian highlanders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinoda, Ken-ichi; Adachi, Noboru; Guillen, Sonia; Shimada, Izumi

    2006-09-01

    Ancient DNA recovered from 57 individuals excavated by Hiram Bingham at the rural communities of Paucarcancha, Patallacta, and Huata near the famed Inca royal estate and ritual site of Machu Picchu was analyzed by polymerase chain reaction, and the results were compared with ancient and modern DNA from various Central Andean areas to test their hypothesized indigenous highland origins. The control and coding regions of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) of 35 individuals in this group were sequenced, and the haplogroups of each individual were determined. The frequency data for the haplogroups of these samples show clear proximity to those of modern Quechua and Aymara populations in the Peruvian and Bolivian highlands, and contrast with those of pre-Hispanic individuals of the north coast of Peru that we defined previously. Our study suggests a strong genetic affinity between sampled late pre-Hispanic individuals and modern Andean highlanders. A previous analysis of the Machu Picchu osteological collection suggests that the residents there were a mixed group of natives from various coastal and highland regions relocated by the Inca state for varied purposes. Overall, our study indicates that the sampled individuals from Paucarcancha and Patallacta were indigenous highlanders who provided supportive roles for nearby Machu Picchu. 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  17. The Vindolanda Tablets and the Ancient Economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Evers, Kasper Grønlund

    The Vindolanda Tablets are rightly famous for the insights they provide into the life of Roman auxiliaries on the province of Britain’s northern frontier around the turn of the first century AD. Various authors over the years have dealt with the archaeological excavations at Vindolanda, the evide......The Vindolanda Tablets are rightly famous for the insights they provide into the life of Roman auxiliaries on the province of Britain’s northern frontier around the turn of the first century AD. Various authors over the years have dealt with the archaeological excavations at Vindolanda...... of research on both studies of the ancient economy and the economy of early Roman Britain is accounted for, so as to highlight the value of the Vindolanda Tablets and lay the ground for the interpretations which follow. Secondly, the economic activities attested by the tablets are analysed in terms of market......, a model is outlined which takes into account the different economic behaviours revealed by the tablets and attempts to fit them together into one coherent, economic system, whilst also relating the activities to questions of scale in the ancient economy; moreover, the conclusions drawn in the study...

  18. Ancient and Medieval Earth in Armenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmanyan, S. V.

    2015-07-01

    Humankind has always sought to recognize the nature of various sky related phenomena and tried to give them explanations. The purpose of this study is to identify ancient Armenians' pantheistic and cosmological perceptions, world view, notions and beliefs related to the Earth. The paper focuses on the structure of the Earth and many other phenomena of nature that have always been on a major influence on ancient Armenians thinking. In this paper we have compared the term Earth in 31 languages. By discussing and comparing Universe structure in various regional traditions, myths, folk songs and phraseological units we very often came across to "Seven Heavens" (Seven heavens is a part of religious cosmology found in many major religions such as Islam, Judaism, Hinduism and Christianity (namely Catholicism) and "Seven Earths". Armenians in their turn divided Earth and Heavens into seven layers. And in science too, both the Earth and the Heavens have 7 layers. The Seven Heavens refer to the layers of our atmosphere. The Seven Earths refer to the layers of the Earth (from core to crust), as well as seven continents. We conclude that the perception of celestial objects varies from culture to culture and preastronomy had a significant impact on humankind, particularly on cultural diversities.

  19. Mythological Emblem Glyphs of Ancient Maya Kings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helmke, Christophe

    2012-01-01

    Heinrich Berlin’s identification of Emblem Glyphs in 1958 has rightly been hailed as one of the major breakthroughs in the decipherment of ancient Maya writing. Although their exact function and meaning was unclear at the time, these are now recognized to serve as exalted regal titles that incorp......Heinrich Berlin’s identification of Emblem Glyphs in 1958 has rightly been hailed as one of the major breakthroughs in the decipherment of ancient Maya writing. Although their exact function and meaning was unclear at the time, these are now recognized to serve as exalted regal titles...... that incorporate toponyms, or place names. However, what interests me here is not so much the geo-political importance of Emblem Glyphs, but the toponyms that are used to form these. Many of the toponyms that are the basis of Emblem Glyphs can now be read and can be matched up with corresponding places. In pairing...... off the Emblem Glyphs with their earthly referents, one is left with a peculiar group of toponyms that are clearly otherworldly. It is these supernatural Emblem Glyphs that I would like to discuss here and the role they played in legitimizing the monarchs that bore these, as titles that hark back...

  20. Bayesian networks in overlay recipe optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binns, Lewis A.; Reynolds, Greg; Rigden, Timothy C.; Watkins, Stephen; Soroka, Andrew

    2005-05-01

    Currently, overlay measurements are characterized by "recipe", which defines both physical parameters such as focus, illumination et cetera, and also the software parameters such as algorithm to be used and regions of interest. Setting up these recipes requires both engineering time and wafer availability on an overlay tool, so reducing these requirements will result in higher tool productivity. One of the significant challenges to automating this process is that the parameters are highly and complexly correlated. At the same time, a high level of traceability and transparency is required in the recipe creation process, so a technique that maintains its decisions in terms of well defined physical parameters is desirable. Running time should be short, given the system (automatic recipe creation) is being implemented to reduce overheads. Finally, a failure of the system to determine acceptable parameters should be obvious, so a certainty metric is also desirable. The complex, nonlinear interactions make solution by an expert system difficult at best, especially in the verification of the resulting decision network. The transparency requirements tend to preclude classical neural networks and similar techniques. Genetic algorithms and other "global minimization" techniques require too much computational power (given system footprint and cost requirements). A Bayesian network, however, provides a solution to these requirements. Such a network, with appropriate priors, can be used during recipe creation / optimization not just to select a good set of parameters, but also to guide the direction of search, by evaluating the network state while only incomplete information is available. As a Bayesian network maintains an estimate of the probability distribution of nodal values, a maximum-entropy approach can be utilized to obtain a working recipe in a minimum or near-minimum number of steps. In this paper we discuss the potential use of a Bayesian network in such a capacity

  1. Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R

    2017-08-07

    The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also

  2. Application of nuclear analysis techniques in ancient chinese porcelain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Songlin; Xu Qing; Feng Xiangqian; Lei Yong; Cheng Lin; Wang Yanqing

    2005-01-01

    Ancient ceramic was fired with porcelain clay. It contains various provenance information and age characteristic. It is the scientific foundation of studying Chinese porcelain to analyze and research the ancient ceramic with modern analysis methods. According to the property of nuclear analysis technique, its function and application are discussed. (authors)

  3. The relationship between ancient trees health and soil properties

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yomi

    2011-12-07

    Dec 7, 2011 ... Full Length Research Paper. The relationship between ancient trees ... chemical properties, and the relationship between the ancient trees health level and their soil physical and chemical properties. ..... situation on soil nutrients and fertilization in eucalyptus plantations in. GuangXi. Soil and Fertilizer Sci.

  4. Criticisms of Segal's Interpretation of the Ancient Greek Pentathlon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barney, Robert Knight

    This paper examines the ancient Greek pentathlon as it was conducted during the Olympic games. The pentathlon was comprised of five sub-exercises: (1) the jump; (2) the discus throw; (3) the javelin throw; (4) the stade run; and (5) wrestling. Using scholarship in the fields of archaeology, ancient poetry and legends, and pictorial evidence such…

  5. Sin, Punishment And Forgiveness In Ancient Greek Religion: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper looks in particular at the special sin of hubris in ancient Greek religious thought. It examines what constitutes hubris and some cases in which hubris has been committed and punished. It demonstrates with examples that hubris is an unforgivable sin in ancient Greek religion and examines the reasons for this ...

  6. Attitudes to Ancient Greek in Three Schools: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Frances

    2018-01-01

    This study comes in response to recent changes in UK policy, whereby Ancient Greek and Latin have been included alongside modern languages as part of the curriculum at Key Stage 2. It aims to understand how Ancient Greek is surviving and thriving in three different types of schools. After a short overview of the history of Greek teaching in the…

  7. Deep sequencing of RNA from ancient maize kernels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fordyce, Sarah Louise; Avila Arcos, Maria del Carmen; Rasmussen, Morten

    2013-01-01

    The characterization of biomolecules from ancient samples can shed otherwise unobtainable insights into the past. Despite the fundamental role of transcriptomal change in evolution, the potential of ancient RNA remains unexploited - perhaps due to dogma associated with the fragility of RNA. We hy...

  8. Translation: an example from ancient Chinese to modern Chinese

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, X; Hoede, C.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we gave an idea of translation by means of knowledge graph theory from ancient Chinese to modern Chinese, by using an example story. Actually, we give the details of the method of translation from ancient Chinese to modern Chinese step by step as carried out by hand. From the example,

  9. Possible objections to a philosophical approach to ancient Israelite ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There exists a certain consensus amongst biblical scholars that involving philosophy in the attempt to understand ancient Israelite religion is hermeneutically fallacious. A philosophical approach to ancient Yahwism is considered out of place, given the non-philosophical nature of the Hebrew Bible, the normative concerns of ...

  10. Notions of "Rhetoric as Epistemic" in Ancient Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benoit, William L.

    The notion that rhetoric (and to a lesser extent, argument) is epistemic is an increasingly popular one today, although it can be traced to ancient Greece. The notion holds that rhetoric, or the art of persuasion, creates and shapes knowledge. Two ancient authors--Aristophanes and Plato--provide evidence that others had notions of rhetoric as…

  11. An Ancient Inca Tax and Metallurgy in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Chemical Education, 2007

    2007-01-01

    The discovery of ancient Inca tax rulers and other metallurgical objects in Peru show that the ancient civilizations of the country smelted metals. The analysis shows that the smelters in Peru switched from the production of copper to silver after a tax was imposed on them by the Inca rulers.

  12. Bayesian Modelling of Functional Whole Brain Connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røge, Rasmus

    This thesis deals with parcellation of whole-brain functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) using Bayesian inference with mixture models tailored to the fMRI data. In the three included papers and manuscripts, we analyze two different approaches to modeling fMRI signal; either we accept...... the prevalent strategy of standardizing of fMRI time series and model data using directional statistics or we model the variability in the signal across the brain and across multiple subjects. In either case, we use Bayesian nonparametric modeling to automatically learn from the fMRI data the number...... of funcional units, i.e. parcels. We benchmark the proposed mixture models against state of the art methods of brain parcellation, both probabilistic and non-probabilistic. The time series of each voxel are most often standardized using z-scoring which projects the time series data onto a hypersphere...

  13. Bayesian Peak Picking for NMR Spectra

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Yichen

    2014-02-01

    Protein structure determination is a very important topic in structural genomics, which helps people to understand varieties of biological functions such as protein-protein interactions, protein–DNA interactions and so on. Nowadays, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has often been used to determine the three-dimensional structures of protein in vivo. This study aims to automate the peak picking step, the most important and tricky step in NMR structure determination. We propose to model the NMR spectrum by a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities and use the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm as the computational tool to solve the problem. Under the Bayesian framework, the peak picking problem is casted as a variable selection problem. The proposed method can automatically distinguish true peaks from false ones without preprocessing the data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in the literature that tackles the peak picking problem for NMR spectrum data using Bayesian method.

  14. Structure Learning in Bayesian Sensorimotor Integration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Genewein

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that sensorimotor processing can often be described by Bayesian learning, in particular the integration of prior and feedback information depending on its degree of reliability. Here we test the hypothesis that the integration process itself can be tuned to the statistical structure of the environment. We exposed human participants to a reaching task in a three-dimensional virtual reality environment where we could displace the visual feedback of their hand position in a two dimensional plane. When introducing statistical structure between the two dimensions of the displacement, we found that over the course of several days participants adapted their feedback integration process in order to exploit this structure for performance improvement. In control experiments we found that this adaptation process critically depended on performance feedback and could not be induced by verbal instructions. Our results suggest that structural learning is an important meta-learning component of Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

  15. Machine learning a Bayesian and optimization perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Theodoridis, Sergios

    2015-01-01

    This tutorial text gives a unifying perspective on machine learning by covering both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, which rely on optimization techniques, as well as Bayesian inference, which is based on a hierarchy of probabilistic models. The book presents the major machine learning methods as they have been developed in different disciplines, such as statistics, statistical and adaptive signal processing and computer science. Focusing on the physical reasoning behind the mathematics, all the various methods and techniques are explained in depth, supported by examples and problems, giving an invaluable resource to the student and researcher for understanding and applying machine learning concepts. The book builds carefully from the basic classical methods to the most recent trends, with chapters written to be as self-contained as possible, making the text suitable for different courses: pattern recognition, statistical/adaptive signal processing, statistical/Bayesian learning, as well as shor...

  16. Bayesian image reconstruction: Application to emission tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nunez, J.; Llacer, J.

    1989-02-01

    In this paper we propose a Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) method of image reconstruction in the Bayesian framework for the Poisson noise case. We use entropy to define the prior probability and likelihood to define the conditional probability. The method uses sharpness parameters which can be theoretically computed or adjusted, allowing us to obtain MAP reconstructions without the problem of the grey'' reconstructions associated with the pre Bayesian reconstructions. We have developed several ways to solve the reconstruction problem and propose a new iterative algorithm which is stable, maintains positivity and converges to feasible images faster than the Maximum Likelihood Estimate method. We have successfully applied the new method to the case of Emission Tomography, both with simulated and real data. 41 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Distributed Bayesian Networks for User Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tedesco, Roberto; Dolog, Peter; Nejdl, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    The World Wide Web is a popular platform for providing eLearning applications to a wide spectrum of users. However – as users differ in their preferences, background, requirements, and goals – applications should provide personalization mechanisms. In the Web context, user models used...... by such adaptive applications are often partial fragments of an overall user model. The fragments have then to be collected and merged into a global user profile. In this paper we investigate and present algorithms able to cope with distributed, fragmented user models – based on Bayesian Networks – in the context...... of Web-based eLearning platforms. The scenario we are tackling assumes learners who use several systems over time, which are able to create partial Bayesian Networks for user models based on the local system context. In particular, we focus on how to merge these partial user models. Our merge mechanism...

  18. Bayesian long branch attraction bias and corrections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susko, Edward

    2015-03-01

    Previous work on the star-tree paradox has shown that Bayesian methods suffer from a long branch attraction bias. That work is extended to settings involving more taxa and partially resolved trees. The long branch attraction bias is confirmed to arise more broadly and an additional source of bias is found. A by-product of the analysis is methods that correct for biases toward particular topologies. The corrections can be easily calculated using existing Bayesian software. Posterior support for a set of two or more trees can thus be supplemented with corrected versions to cross-check or replace results. Simulations show the corrections to be highly effective. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Bayesian Peak Picking for NMR Spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yichen Cheng

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Protein structure determination is a very important topic in structural genomics, which helps people to understand varieties of biological functions such as protein-protein interactions, protein–DNA interactions and so on. Nowadays, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR has often been used to determine the three-dimensional structures of protein in vivo. This study aims to automate the peak picking step, the most important and tricky step in NMR structure determination. We propose to model the NMR spectrum by a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities and use the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm as the computational tool to solve the problem. Under the Bayesian framework, the peak picking problem is casted as a variable selection problem. The proposed method can automatically distinguish true peaks from false ones without preprocessing the data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in the literature that tackles the peak picking problem for NMR spectrum data using Bayesian method.

  20. Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriano IRANZO

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesianism and Inference to the best explanation (IBE are two different models of inference. Recently there has been some debate about the possibility of “bayesianizing” IBE. Firstly I explore several alternatives to include explanatory considerations in Bayes’s Theorem. Then I distinguish two different interpretations of prior probabilities: “IBE-Bayesianism” (IBE-Bay and “frequentist-Bayesianism” (Freq-Bay. After detailing the content of the latter, I propose a rule for assessing the priors. I also argue that Freq-Bay: (i endorses a role for explanatory value in the assessment of scientific hypotheses; (ii avoids a purely subjectivist reading of prior probabilities; and (iii fits better than IBE-Bayesianism with two basic facts about science, i.e., the prominent role played by empirical testing and the existence of many scientific theories in the past that failed to fulfil their promises and were subsequently abandoned.

  1. Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann

    2011-01-01

    Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.

  2. Disentangling Complexity in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Gheorghe; Adam, Sanda

    2018-02-01

    The paper describes a Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature (BAAQ) solution for numerical integration which is simultaneously robust, reliable, and efficient. Detailed discussion is provided of three main factors which contribute to the enhancement of these features: (1) refinement of the m-panel automatic adaptive scheme through the use of integration-domain-length-scale-adapted quadrature sums; (2) fast early problem complexity assessment - enables the non-transitive choice among three execution paths: (i) immediate termination (exceptional cases); (ii) pessimistic - involves time and resource consuming Bayesian inference resulting in radical reformulation of the problem to be solved; (iii) optimistic - asks exclusively for subrange subdivision by bisection; (3) use of the weaker accuracy target from the two possible ones (the input accuracy specifications and the intrinsic integrand properties respectively) - results in maximum possible solution accuracy under minimum possible computing time.

  3. Narrowband interference parameterization for sparse Bayesian recovery

    KAUST Repository

    Ali, Anum

    2015-09-11

    This paper addresses the problem of narrowband interference (NBI) in SC-FDMA systems by using tools from compressed sensing and stochastic geometry. The proposed NBI cancellation scheme exploits the frequency domain sparsity of the unknown signal and adopts a Bayesian sparse recovery procedure. This is done by keeping a few randomly chosen sub-carriers data free to sense the NBI signal at the receiver. As Bayesian recovery requires knowledge of some NBI parameters (i.e., mean, variance and sparsity rate), we use tools from stochastic geometry to obtain analytical expressions for the required parameters. Our simulation results validate the analysis and depict suitability of the proposed recovery method for NBI mitigation. © 2015 IEEE.

  4. Bayesian information fusion networks for biosurveillance applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mnatsakanyan, Zaruhi R; Burkom, Howard S; Coberly, Jacqueline S; Lombardo, Joseph S

    2009-01-01

    This study introduces new information fusion algorithms to enhance disease surveillance systems with Bayesian decision support capabilities. A detection system was built and tested using chief complaints from emergency department visits, International Classification of Diseases Revision 9 (ICD-9) codes from records of outpatient visits to civilian and military facilities, and influenza surveillance data from health departments in the National Capital Region (NCR). Data anomalies were identified and distribution of time offsets between events in the multiple data streams were established. The Bayesian Network was built to fuse data from multiple sources and identify influenza-like epidemiologically relevant events. Results showed increased specificity compared with the alerts generated by temporal anomaly detection algorithms currently deployed by NCR health departments. Further research should be done to investigate correlations between data sources for efficient fusion of the collected data.

  5. Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil, Martin; Tailor, Manesh; Marquez, David; Fenton, Norman; Hearty, Peter

    2008-01-01

    A hybrid Bayesian network (BN) is one that incorporates both discrete and continuous nodes. In our extensive applications of BNs for system dependability assessment, the models are invariably hybrid and the need for efficient and accurate computation is paramount. We apply a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretisation with robust propagation algorithms on junction tree structures to perform inference in hybrid BNs. We illustrate its use in the field of dependability with two example of reliability estimation. Firstly we estimate the reliability of a simple single system and next we implement a hierarchical Bayesian model. In the hierarchical model we compute the reliability of two unknown subsystems from data collected on historically similar subsystems and then input the result into a reliability block model to compute system level reliability. We conclude that dynamic discretisation can be used as an alternative to analytical or Monte Carlo methods with high precision and can be applied to a wide range of dependability problems

  6. Probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation

    CERN Document Server

    Reich, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    In this book the authors describe the principles and methods behind probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation. Instead of focusing on particular application areas, the authors adopt a general dynamical systems approach, with a profusion of low-dimensional, discrete-time numerical examples designed to build intuition about the subject. Part I explains the mathematical framework of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification. Part II is devoted to Bayesian filtering algorithms, from classical data assimilation algorithms such as the Kalman filter, variational techniques, and sequential Monte Carlo methods, through to more recent developments such as the ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble transform filters. The McKean approach to sequential filtering in combination with coupling of measures serves as a unifying mathematical framework throughout Part II. Assuming only some basic familiarity with probability, this book is an ideal introduction for graduate students in ap...

  7. Bayesian hypothesis testing: Editorial to the Special Issue on Bayesian data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoijtink, Herbert; Chow, Sy-Miin

    2017-06-01

    In the past 20 years, there has been a steadily increasing attention and demand for Bayesian data analysis across multiple scientific disciplines, including psychology. Bayesian methods and the related Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques offered renewed ways of handling old and challenging new problems that may be difficult or impossible to handle using classical approaches. Yet, such opportunities and potential improvements have not been sufficiently explored and investigated. This is 1 of 2 special issues in Psychological Methods dedicated to the topic of Bayesian data analysis, with an emphasis on Bayesian hypothesis testing, model comparison, and general guidelines for applications in psychology. In this editorial, we provide an overview of the use of Bayesian methods in psychological research and a brief history of the Bayes factor and the posterior predictive p value. Translational abstracts that summarize the articles in this issue in very clear and understandable terms are included in the Appendix. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Bayesian estimation of Weibull distribution parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bacha, M.; Celeux, G.; Idee, E.; Lannoy, A.; Vasseur, D.

    1994-11-01

    In this paper, we expose SEM (Stochastic Expectation Maximization) and WLB-SIR (Weighted Likelihood Bootstrap - Sampling Importance Re-sampling) methods which are used to estimate Weibull distribution parameters when data are very censored. The second method is based on Bayesian inference and allow to take into account available prior informations on parameters. An application of this method, with real data provided by nuclear power plants operation feedback analysis has been realized. (authors). 8 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  9. Essays on portfolio choice with Bayesian methods

    OpenAIRE

    Kebabci, Deniz

    2007-01-01

    How investors should allocate assets to their portfolios in the presence of predictable components in asset returns is a question of great importance in finance. While early studies took the return generating process as given, recent studies have addressed issues such as parameter estimation and model uncertainty. My dissertation develops Bayesian methods for portfolio choice - and industry allocation in particular - under parameter and model uncertainty. The first chapter of my dissertation,...

  10. Characteristic imsets for learning Bayesian network structure

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hemmecke, R.; Lindner, S.; Studený, Milan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2012), s. 1336-1349 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0572; GA ČR GA201/08/0539 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : learning Bayesian network structure * essential graph * standard imset * characteristic imset * LP relaxation of a polytope Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.729, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/studeny-0382596.pdf

  11. Centralized Bayesian reliability modelling with sensor networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dedecius, Kamil; Sečkárová, Vladimíra

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 5 (2013), s. 471-482 ISSN 1387-3954 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7D12004 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) SVV-265315 Keywords : Bayesian modelling * Sensor network * Reliability Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 0.984, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/AS/dedecius-0392551.pdf

  12. SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor M. Rukhlinskiy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The solution of the problem of modelling and quantitative assessment of flight safety risk is being considered in this paper. The article considers the main groups of mathematical models used to quantify the risks of flight safety, which can be used by providers of aviation services. The authors demonstrate and discuss risk modeling possibilities in the field of flight safety on the basis of Bayesian belief networks.In this paper a mathematical model is built on the basis of identified hazards, and this model allows to determine the level of risk for each hazard and the consequences of their occurrence using Bayesian belief networks, consisting of marginal probability distributions graph and conditional probability tables. This mathematical model allows to determine the following, based on the data on adverse events and hazard identification: the probability of various adverse events in all dangers occurrence, the risk level for each of the identified hazards, the most likely consequences of the given danger oc- currence. For risk modeling in the field of flight safety on the basis of Bayesian belief networks there were used supple- mentary Bayes Net Toolbox for MATLAB with open source. To determine the level of risk in the form specified in ICAO Doc 9859 "Flight Safety Management Manual" of the International Civil Aviation Organization, the authors wrote a func- tion to MATLAB, allowing each pair of probability - to set severity level in line with alphanumeric value and significance of the risk category.Risk model in the field of flight safety on the basis of Bayesian belief networks corresponds to the definition of risk by Kaplan and Garrick. The advantage of the developed risk assessment method over other methods is shown in the paper.

  13. Personalized Audio Systems - a Bayesian Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jens Brehm; Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Hansen, Toke Jansen

    2013-01-01

    , the present paper presents a general inter-active framework for personalization of such audio systems. The framework builds on Bayesian Gaussian process regression in which a model of the users's objective function is updated sequentially. The parameter setting to be evaluated in a given trial is selected...... are optimized using the proposed framework. Twelve test subjects obtain a personalized setting with the framework, and these settings are signicantly preferred to those obtained with random experimentation....

  14. Bayesian estimation of traffic lane state

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nagy, Ivan; Kárný, Miroslav; Nedoma, Petr; Voráčová, Š.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 1 (2003), s. 51-65 ISSN 0890-6327 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/03/0049; GA AV ČR IBS1075351 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : mixture models * estimation * Bayesian approach Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.602, year: 2003 http://library.utia.cas.cz/prace/20030021.ps

  15. Multilevel Monte Carlo in Approximate Bayesian Computation

    KAUST Repository

    Jasra, Ajay

    2017-02-13

    In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the approach is developed and it is shown under some assumptions that for a given level of mean square error, this method for ABC has a lower cost than i.i.d. sampling from the most accurate ABC approximation. Several numerical examples are given.

  16. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    G. W. Petty

    2013-01-01

    An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increase...

  17. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    G. W. Petty

    2013-01-01

    An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conf...

  18. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  19. Approximation of Bayesian Inverse Problems for PDEs

    OpenAIRE

    Cotter, S. L.; Dashti, M.; Stuart, A. M.

    2010-01-01

    Inverse problems are often ill posed, with solutions that depend sensitively on data.n any numerical approach to the solution of such problems, regularization of some form is needed to counteract the resulting instability. This paper is based on an approach to regularization, employing a Bayesian formulation of the problem, which leads to a notion of well posedness for inverse problems, at the level of probability measures. The stability which results from this well posedness may be used as t...

  20. Bayesian analysis of Markov point processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    Recently Møller, Pettitt, Berthelsen and Reeves introduced a new MCMC methodology for drawing samples from a posterior distribution when the likelihood function is only specified up to a normalising constant. We illustrate the method in the setting of Bayesian inference for Markov point processes...... a partially ordered Markov point process as the auxiliary variable. As the method requires simulation from the "unknown" likelihood, perfect simulation algorithms for spatial point processes become useful....