WorldWideScience

Sample records for analysis risk spar

  1. Inspection of spar-core bond in helicopter rotor blades using finite element analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakrapani, Sunil Kishore; Barnard, Daniel J.; Dayal, Vinay

    2015-03-01

    This work focuses on inspection of spar-core bond of a helicopter rotor blade using finite element analysis. Structures which have high density, high stiffness cores can be very difficult to inspect due to various mode conversions. FEM was used to capture these mode conversions effectively. The structure consists of a thin spar section followed by a spar-core half space and another thin spar section. A Lamb wave excited in the spar section can mode convert into a Rayleigh wave in the spar-core section due to the coupling of the core material. This in turn mode converts back into a Lamb wave upon interacting with the next spar section. This work focuses solely on capturing the mode conversions between Rayleigh and Lamb modes at different discontinuities in the geometry.

  2. SPAR Model Structural Efficiencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Schroeder; Dan Henry

    2013-04-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are supporting initiatives aimed at improving the quality of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Included in these initiatives are the resolution of key technical issues that are have been judged to have the most significant influence on the baseline core damage frequency of the NRC’s Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and licensee PRA models. Previous work addressed issues associated with support system initiating event analysis and loss of off-site power/station blackout analysis. The key technical issues were: • Development of a standard methodology and implementation of support system initiating events • Treatment of loss of offsite power • Development of standard approach for emergency core cooling following containment failure Some of the related issues were not fully resolved. This project continues the effort to resolve outstanding issues. The work scope was intended to include substantial collaboration with EPRI; however, EPRI has had other higher priority initiatives to support. Therefore this project has addressed SPAR modeling issues. The issues addressed are • SPAR model transparency • Common cause failure modeling deficiencies and approaches • Ac and dc modeling deficiencies and approaches • Instrumentation and control system modeling deficiencies and approaches

  3. Collision Analysis of the Spar Upper Module Docking

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Liu; Liping Sun; Chunlin Wu; Guo Wei

    2014-01-01

    In order to assess the possible collision effect, a numerical simulation for the upper module and spar platform docking at the speed of 0.2 m/s was conducted by using the software ANSYS/LS-DYNA, and the time history of the collision force, energy absorption and structural deformation during the collision was described. The purpose was to ensure that the platform was safely put into operation. Furthermore, this paper analyzes different initial velocities and angles on the Von Mises stress and collision resultant force during the docking collision. The results of this paper showed that the docking could be conducted with higher security. The data in this paper can provide useful references for the determination of the upper module’s offshore hoisting scheme and practical construction by contrasting the numerical simulation results of the parameters on the docking collision.

  4. An Integrated Structural Strength Analysis Method for Spar Type Floating Wind Turbine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡志强; 刘毅; 王晋

    2016-01-01

    An integrated structural strength analysis method for a Spar type floating wind turbine is proposed in this paper, and technical issues related to turbine structure modeling and stress combination are also addressed. The NREL-5MW “Hywind” Spar type wind turbine is adopted as study object. Time-domain dynamic coupled simulations are performed by a fully-coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool, FAST, on the purpose of obtaining the dynamic characteristics of the floating wind turbine, and determining parameters for design load cases of finite element calculation. Then design load cases are identified, and finite element analyses are performed for these design load cases. The structural stresses due to wave-induced loads and wind-induced loads are calculated, and then combined to assess the structural strength of the floating wind turbine. The feasibility of the proposed structural strength analysis method for floating wind turbines is then validated.

  5. An integrated structural strength analysis method for Spar type floating wind turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhi-qiang; Liu, Yi; Wang, Jin

    2016-04-01

    An integrated structural strength analysis method for a Spar type floating wind turbine is proposed in this paper, and technical issues related to turbine structure modeling and stress combination are also addressed. The NREL-5MW "Hywind" Spar type wind turbine is adopted as study object. Time-domain dynamic coupled simulations are performed by a fully-coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool, FAST, on the purpose of obtaining the dynamic characteristics of the floating wind turbine, and determining parameters for design load cases of finite element calculation. Then design load cases are identified, and finite element analyses are performed for these design load cases. The structural stresses due to wave-induced loads and wind-induced loads are calculated, and then combined to assess the structural strength of the floating wind turbine. The feasibility of the proposed structural strength analysis method for floating wind turbines is then validated.

  6. Proposed SPAR Modeling Method for Quantifying Time Dependent Station Blackout Cut Sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John A. Schroeder

    2010-06-01

    Abstract: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (USNRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and industry risk models take similar approaches to analyzing the risk associated with loss of offsite power and station blackout (LOOP/SBO) events at nuclear reactor plants. In both SPAR models and industry models, core damage risk resulting from a LOOP/SBO event is analyzed using a combination of event trees and fault trees that produce cut sets that are, in turn, quantified to obtain a numerical estimate of the resulting core damage risk. A proposed SPAR method for quantifying the time-dependent cut sets is sometimes referred to as a convolution method. The SPAR method reflects assumptions about the timing of emergency diesel failures, the timing of subsequent attempts at emergency diesel repair, and the timing of core damage that may be different than those often used in industry models. This paper describes the proposed SPAR method.

  7. Design Analysis And Application Of Nylon66 In Rotary Spars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.K. Harish Kumar

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Technology has led to the increased use of plastics as replacement to conventional materials in various sectors. The use of alloy steels in various rotary spares such as gears, cams, bearings, valve seats and other bearing and wear applications that requires quite operation, low coefficient of friction and wear resistance shall be replaced with nylon 66 as per requirements. In the present work I am applying nylon66 in gears and sprocket wheels used in automotive it is proposed to substitute the metallic rotating spares like gears and sprockets with nylon 66 to reduce the weight and noise. For this purpose different types of polymers were considered namely Polyethylene, PVC, Polystyrene, Polypropylene and Nylon66 and their viability are checked with their counterpart metallic gear (Cast iron. Based on the static analysis, the best plastic material is recommended for the purpose.3D model of gears and sprocket wheel chain assembly has been modeled by using Pro-E WF4. The models are then pre-processed using hyper mesh 10 .

  8. Dynamic testing and analysis of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izapanah, Amir P.; Baucon, Robert M.

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist elastic coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars, representative of the primary load carrying structure within a helicopter rotor blade, was manufactured using four plies of woven graphite/epoxy cloth 'prepreg.' These spars were non-circular in cross section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three cross-sectional geometries were developed: square, D-shape, and flattened ellipse. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models developed in MSC/NASTRAN. Five global or 'non-shell' modes were identified within the 0-2000 Hz range for each spar. The frequencies and associated mode shapes for the D-shape spar were correlated with analytical results, showing agreement within 13.8 percent. Frequencies corresponding to the five global mode shapes for the square spar agreed within 9.5 percent of the analytical results. Five global modes were similarly identified for the elliptical spar and agreed within 4.9 percent of the respective analytical results.

  9. SparSNP: Fast and memory-efficient analysis of all SNPs for phenotype prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Abraham Gad; Kowalczyk Adam; Zobel Justin; Inouye Michael

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background A central goal of genomics is to predict phenotypic variation from genetic variation. Fitting predictive models to genome-wide and whole genome single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) profiles allows us to estimate the predictive power of the SNPs and potentially develop diagnostic models for disease. However, many current datasets cannot be analysed with standard tools due to their large size. Results We introduce SparSNP, a tool for fitting lasso linear models for massive S...

  10. Study of composite wind turbine spars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Syed Shahrukh

    This report presents a theoretical, numerical and experimental study of composite wind turbine spars under bending loads. Spars were made from commercially available glass/ carbon fiber material. The spars were composed of uniaxial (0°) flanges and biaxial (+/-45°) shear webs. Items of particular study were co-block polymer additives in vinyl ester resins, a presumably new spar design, and using carbon fiber pultrusions for spar caps (flanges). Composites are very strong and thus tend to be thin, which exacerbates the problem of buckling. Further, fibers also buckle at the micro level, leading to lower effective compression strength than tensile strength of a composite. Many structures tend to buckle in out of plane direction which can cause early and abrupt failure. A 3-point bend test rig was manufactured in-house for experimentally testing composite spars. The experiments indicated abrupt failure without any sign or other form of damage. Limited number of spars was made with slightly different construction. All spars were subjected to same testing environment. Finite element analyses were performed in order to shed light on the failure mechanisms leading to catastrophic failure. The FE code Ansys was used for the analyses. 3D models were developed, loads were applied, and linear elastic static as well as buckling analyses were performed. The results obtained from analysis were in reasonable agreement with the experimental tests.

  11. The Origins of the SPAR-H Method's Performance Shaping Factor Multipliers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; Harold S. Blackman

    2007-08-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method has proved to be a reliable, easy-to-use method for human reliability analysis. Calculation of human error probability (HEP) rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor (PSF) multipliers upon those nominal error rates. SPAR-H uses eight PSFs with multipliers typically corresponding to nominal, degraded, and severely degraded human performance for individual PSFs. Additionally, some PSFs feature multipliers to reflect enhanced performance. Although SPAR-H enjoys widespread use among industry and regulators, current source documents on SPAR-H such as NUREG/CR-6883 do not provide a clear account of the origin of these multipliers. The present paper redresses this shortcoming and documents the historic development of the SPAR-H PSF multipliers, from the initial use of nominal error rates, to the selection of the eight PSFs, to the mapping of multipliers to available data sources such as a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). Where error rates were not readily derived from THERP and other sources, expert judgment was used to extrapolate appropriate values. In documenting key background information on the multipliers, this paper provides a much needed cross-reference for human reliability practitioners and researchers of SPAR-H to validate analyses and research findings.

  12. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    April M. Whaley; Dana L. Kelly; Ronald L. Boring; William J. Galyean

    2012-06-01

    Step-by-step guidance was developed recently at Idaho National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission on the use of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This work was done to address SPAR-H user needs, specifically requests for additional guidance on the proper application of various aspects of the methodology. This paper overviews the steps of the SPAR-H analysis process and highlights some of the most important insights gained during the development of the step-by-step directions. This supplemental guidance for analysts is applicable when plant-specific information is available, and goes beyond the general guidance provided in existing SPAR-H documentation. The steps highlighted in this paper are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff.

  13. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  14. Human reliability analysis of the Tehran research reactor using the SPAR-H method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barati Ramin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to cover human reliability analysis of the Tehran research reactor using an appropriate method for the representation of human failure probabilities. In the present work, the technique for human error rate prediction and standardized plant analysis risk-human reliability methods have been utilized to quantify different categories of human errors, applied extensively to nuclear power plants. Human reliability analysis is, indeed, an integral and significant part of probabilistic safety analysis studies, without it probabilistic safety analysis would not be a systematic and complete representation of actual plant risks. In addition, possible human errors in research reactors constitute a significant part of the associated risk of such installations and including them in a probabilistic safety analysis for such facilities is a complicated issue. Standardized plant analysis risk-human can be used to address these concerns; it is a well-documented and systematic human reliability analysis system with tables for human performance choices prepared in consultation with experts in the domain. In this method, performance shaping factors are selected via tables, human action dependencies are accounted for, and the method is well designed for the intended use. In this study, in consultations with reactor operators, human errors are identified and adequate performance shaping factors are assigned to produce proper human failure probabilities. Our importance analysis has revealed that human action contained in the possibility of an external object falling on the reactor core are the most significant human errors concerning the Tehran research reactor to be considered in reactor emergency operating procedures and operator training programs aimed at improving reactor safety.

  15. Decommissioning the Brent Spar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 1995 the oil company Shell was granted a deep-sea UK Government Licence to dispose of the oil storage and off-loading platform Brent Spar, their intention being to sink it in the North Atlantic. This prompted a Greenpeace protest, resulting in their occupation of the Spar in May 1995, this ended in late June with Shell's capitulation. This was given widespread publicity in the media throughout the world, and it was a further three years before the UK Government issued another licence for final disposal, this time for its reuse in a quay extension in Norway. This book examines the background to the events, and concludes that serious errors were made by all organisations directly involved, however as a result of these mistakes lessons have been learned for the future. (UK)

  16. Response Analysis and Comparison of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine and an Onshore Wind Turbine under Blade Pitch Controller Faults

    OpenAIRE

    Etemaddar, M.; Blanke, Mogens; Gao, Z.; Moan, T.

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyses the effects of three pitch controller faults on the responses of an onshorewind turbine and a spar-type offshore floating wind turbine. These faults include:a stuck blade pitch actuator,a fixed value fault and a bias fault of the blade pitch sensor.The faults are modeled in the controller dynamic link library and a short-term extreme response analysis is performed using the HAWC2 simulation tool.The main objectives of this paper are to investigate how different faults affe...

  17. Use of spar elements to simulate fluid-solid interaction in the finite element analysis of piping system dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With this technique, the fluid in straight pipe sections is represented as a sequence of spar elements coupled to the pipe motion in the transverse direction but free to move independently in the axial direction. Results are presented for a pulse loading of a leg of piping with the same cross-sectional dimensions and elbow radii as the Clinch River Breeder Reactor primary piping. 4 refs

  18. Stochastic Dynamic Response Analysis of Spar-Type Wind Turbines with Catenary or Taut Mooring Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Karimirad, Madjid

    2011-01-01

    Floating wind turbines can be the most practical and economical way to extract the vast offshore wind energy resources at deep and intermediate water depths. The Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy is strongly committed to developing offshore wind technology that utilises available renewable energy sources. As the wind is steadier and stronger over the sea than over land, the wind industry recently moved to offshore areas. Analysis of the structural dynamic response of offshore wind tu...

  19. Guidance on Dependence Assessment in SPAR-H

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    April M. Whaley

    2012-06-01

    As part of the effort to develop the SPAR-H user guidance, particular attention was paid to the assessment of dependence in order to address user questions about proper application of dependence. This paper presents a discussion of dependence from a psychological perspective and provides guidance on applying this information during the qualitative analysis of dependence to ensure more realistic and appropriate dependence assessments with the SPAR-H method. While this guidance was developed with SPAR-H in mind, it may be informative to other human reliability analysis methods that also use a THERP-based dependence approach, particularly if applied at the human failure event level.

  20. Use of spar elements to simulate fluid accoustical effects and fluid-solid interaction in the finite element analysis of piping system dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A technique is presented for using existing options in structural analysis finite element computer programs to simulate fluid acoustical effects and fluid-structure interaction in piping system dynamic analysis. With this technique, the fluid in straight pipe sections is represented as a sequence of spar elements coupled to the pipe motion in the transverse direction but free to move independently in the axial direction. Special modeling considerations for treating the acoustical and fluid-structure interaction effects at elbows, tees and area changes are also derived. Results using this kind of modeling are presented for a pulse loading of a leg piping with the same cross-sectional dimensions and elbow radii as the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant (CRBRP) primary piping. (orig.)

  1. Response Analysis and Comparison of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine and an Onshore Wind Turbine under Blade Pitch Controller Faults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Etemaddar, M.; Blanke, Mogens; Gao, Z.;

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyses the effects of three pitch controller faults on the responses of an onshorewind turbine and a spar-type offshore floating wind turbine. These faults include:a stuck blade pitch actuator,a fixed value fault and a bias fault of the blade pitch sensor.The faults are modeled in the...... controller dynamic link library and a short-term extreme response analysis is performed using the HAWC2 simulation tool.The main objectives of this paper are to investigate how different faults affect the performance of wind turbines for condition monitoring purposes and which differences exist in the...... structural responses between onshore and offshore floating wind turbines. Statistical analysis of the selected response parameters are conducted using the six1-hour stochastic samples for each load case.For condition monitoring purpose,the effects of faults on the responses at different wind speeds and fault...

  2. Apollo Telescope Mount Spar Assembly

    Science.gov (United States)

    1969-01-01

    The Apollo Telescope Mount (ATM), designed and developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center, served as the primary scientific instrument unit aboard the Skylab. The ATM contained eight complex astronomical instruments designed to observe the Sun over a wide spectrum from visible light to x-rays. This image shows the ATM spar assembly. All solar telescopes, the fine Sun sensors, and some auxiliary systems are mounted on the spar, a cruciform lightweight perforated metal mounting panel that divides the 10-foot long canister lengthwise into four equal compartments. The spar assembly was nested inside a cylindrical canister that fit into the rack, a complex frame, and was protected by the solar shield.

  3. HUMAN ERROR QUANTIFICATION USING PERFORMANCE SHAPING FACTORS IN THE SPAR-H METHOD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harold S. Blackman; David I. Gertman; Ronald L. Boring

    2008-09-01

    This paper describes a cognitively based human reliability analysis (HRA) quantification technique for estimating the human error probabilities (HEPs) associated with operator and crew actions at nuclear power plants. The method described here, Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method, was developed to aid in characterizing and quantifying human performance at nuclear power plants. The intent was to develop a defensible method that would consider all factors that may influence performance. In the SPAR-H approach, calculation of HEP rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action-oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor multipliers upon those nominal error rates.

  4. Brent Spar abandonment - impact hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes the predicted fate of the Brent Spar storage and offloading platform following its proposed deep sea abandonment. Based on the characteristics of the Brent Spar and the contents of the buoy this ''Impact Hypothesis'' uses currently available knowledge of the North East Atlantic deep sea environment. Three scenarios based on possible outcomes are considered, incllcuding the release of metals into the water following corrosion of the structure. (UK)

  5. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  6. A concept study of a carbon spar cap design for a 80m wind turbine blade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosemeier, M.; Bätge, M.

    2014-06-01

    The buckling resistance is a key design driver for large wind turbine blades with a significant influence on the material costs. During the structural design process the choice was made for carbon spar caps and two shear webs, which were set relatively far apart in order to stabilize the panels. This design presented a major challenge for the stability of the spar caps. The topology of these spar caps has been modified with regard to stability, comparing a continuous spar cap with split spar cap concepts and considering both lay-ups with hybrid carbon glass spar caps or sandwich concepts. Within those concepts, parametric studies were conducted varying different geometrical parameters of the spar caps and its layups. In order to determine the buckling resistance of the spar cap, an analytical model considering a 2D cross section discretized blade model was utilized to select the basic concept, after which a 3D numerical finite element model taking the whole blade into account was used to evaluate the chosen design concepts. The stability limit state analysis was conducted according to the certification scheme of GL guideline 2012. The various concepts were evaluated based on the blade's mass, tip deflection and modal properties. The results of this design process of the spar caps and the evaluation of the used analysis tools are presented within the paper.

  7. A concept study of a carbon spar cap design for a 80m wind turbine blade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The buckling resistance is a key design driver for large wind turbine blades with a significant influence on the material costs. During the structural design process the choice was made for carbon spar caps and two shear webs, which were set relatively far apart in order to stabilize the panels. This design presented a major challenge for the stability of the spar caps. The topology of these spar caps has been modified with regard to stability, comparing a continuous spar cap with split spar cap concepts and considering both lay-ups with hybrid carbon glass spar caps or sandwich concepts. Within those concepts, parametric studies were conducted varying different geometrical parameters of the spar caps and its layups. In order to determine the buckling resistance of the spar cap, an analytical model considering a 2D cross section discretized blade model was utilized to select the basic concept, after which a 3D numerical finite element model taking the whole blade into account was used to evaluate the chosen design concepts. The stability limit state analysis was conducted according to the certification scheme of GL guideline 2012. The various concepts were evaluated based on the blade's mass, tip deflection and modal properties. The results of this design process of the spar caps and the evaluation of the used analysis tools are presented within the paper

  8. Turbine blade with spar and shell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Daniel O.; Peterson, Ross H.

    2012-04-24

    A turbine blade with a spar and shell construction in which the spar and the shell are both secured within two platform halves. The spar and the shell each include outward extending ledges on the bottom ends that fit within grooves formed on the inner sides of the platform halves to secure the spar and the shell against radial movement when the two platform halves are joined. The shell is also secured to the spar by hooks extending from the shell that slide into grooves formed on the outer surface of the spar. The hooks form a serpentine flow cooling passage between the shell and the spar. The spar includes cooling holes on the lower end in the leading edge region to discharge cooling air supplied through the platform root and into the leading edge cooling channel.

  9. Wind-wave induced dynamic response analysis for motions and mooring loads of a spar-type offshore floating wind turbine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马钰; 肖龙飞; 胡志强

    2014-01-01

    Due to the energy crisis and the environmental issues like pollution and global warming, the exploration for renewable and clean energies becomes crucial. The offshore floating wind turbines (OFWTs) draw a great deal of attention recently as a means to exploit the steadier and stronger wind resources available in deep water seas. This paper studies the hydrodynamic characteristics of a spar-type wind turbine known as the OC3-Hywind concept and the dynamic responses of the turbine. Response characteristics of motions and mooring loads of the system under different sea states are evaluated and the effects of the loads induced by the wind and the wave on the system are discussed. The calculations are carried out with the numerical simulation code FAST in the time domain and the frequency analysis is made by using the FFT method. The results and the conclusions from this paper might help better understand the behavior characteristics of the floating wind turbine system under actual ocean environments and provide valuable data in design and engineering practice.

  10. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field

  11. NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION ON THE HYDRODYNAMIC PERFORMANCES OF A NEW SPAR CONCEPT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Recently, the spar platform concept develops quickly in the offshore oil and gas exploitations, especially in deep and ultra-deep water, owing to its benign motion performance, excellent stability and adaptation to wide range of water depth. Many new spar concepts have been put forward with the purpose of reducing fabrication difficulty and cost, while meeting the requirements of exploitation in the meantime. Based on the aims mentioned above, a new spar concept was presented in this article and its hydrodynamics both in operating and survival conditions was studied by means of numerical simulation. Basic model tests were also conducted to calibrate the numerical approach. Following aspects are highlighted: (1) new spar concept, (2) global performance of the spar concept and (3) mooring line analysis.

  12. Dynamic behavior of offshore spar platforms under regular sea waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agarwal, A.K.; Jain, A.K. [Indian Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Civil Engineering, New Delhi (India)

    2003-03-01

    Many innovative floating offshore structures have been proposed for cost effectiveness of oil and gas exploration and production in water depths exceeding one thousand meters in recent years. One such type of platform is the offshore floating Spar platform. The Spar platform is modelled as a rigid body with six degrees-of-freedom, connected to the sea floor by multi-component catenary mooring lines, which are attached to the Spar platform at the fairleads. The response dependent stiffness matrix consists of two parts (a) the hydrostatics provide restoring force in heave, roll and pitch, (b) the mooring lines provide the restoring force which are represented here by nonlinear horizontal springs. A unidirectional regular wave model is used for computing the incident wave kinematics by Airy's wave theory and force by Morison's equation. The response analysis is performed in time domain to solve the dynamic behavior of the moored Spar platform as an integrated system using the iterative incremental Newmark's Beta approach. Numerical studies are conducted for sea state conditions with and without coupling of degrees-of-freedom. (Author)

  13. Design, Manufacture and Testing of A Bend-Twist D-Spar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ong, Cheng-Huat; Tsai, Stephen W.

    1999-06-01

    Studies have indicated that an adaptive wind turbine blade design can significantly enhance the performance of the wind turbine blade on energy capture and load mitigation. In order to realize the potential benefits of aeroelastic tailoring, a bend-twist D-spar, which is the backbone of a blade, was designed and fabricated to achieve the objectives of having maximum bend-twist coupling and fulfilling desirable structural properties (031 & GJ). Two bend-twist D-spars, a hybrid of glass and carbon fibers and an all-carbon D-spar, were fabricated using a bladder process. One of the D-spars, the hybrid D-spar, was subjected to a cantilever static test and modal testing. Various parameters such as materials, laminate schedule, thickness and internal rib were examined in designing a bend-twist D-spar. The fabrication tooling, the lay-up process and the joint design for two symmetric clamshells are described in this report. Finally, comparisons between the experimental test results and numerical results are presented. The comparisons indicate that the numerical analysis (static and modal analysis) agrees well with test results.

  14. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  15. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    W. J. Galyean; A. M. Whaley; D. L. Kelly; R. L. Boring

    2011-05-01

    This guide provides step-by-step guidance on the use of the SPAR-H method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This guide is intended to be used with the worksheets provided in: 'The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method,' NUREG/CR-6883, dated August 2005. Each step in the process of producing a Human Error Probability (HEP) is discussed. These steps are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff. The discussions on dependence are extensive and include an appendix that describes insights obtained from the psychology literature.

  16. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This guide provides step-by-step guidance on the use of the SPAR-H method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This guide is intended to be used with the worksheets provided in: 'The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method,' NUREG/CR-6883, dated August 2005. Each step in the process of producing a Human Error Probability (HEP) is discussed. These steps are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff. The discussions on dependence are extensive and include an appendix that describes insights obtained from the psychology literature.

  17. Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  18. Experimental Investigation on Hydrodynamic Behavior of the Geometric Spar Platform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Fan; YANG Jian-min; LI Run-pei; CHEN Gang

    2006-01-01

    In recent years, attention has been focused on the spar platform for gas and oil exploitation in deep water. With the development of offshore technology, many new spar concepts have been put forward and fully studied. This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on the hydrodynamic behavior of a new spar concept from Novellent Offshore LLC, USA, which is called Geometric Spar (G-spar). A new type of buoyancy can concept from the same company, viz. Integrated Buoyancy Can (IBC), is researched in the meantime. The G-spar and IBC models with a 1:70 scale are tested in the State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering at Shanghai Jiao Tong University for the global performance of the spar hull, in which the second-order wave drift force is involved, as well as the effect of heave plates on the motion characteristics and mooring force of the G-spar platform.

  19. Brent Spar abandonment - Best Practicable Environmental Option (BPEO) assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Possible methods of abandoning or re-using the Brent Spar storage and tanker offloading facility following its decommissioning in 1991 are discussed. The report assesses six of the thirteen possible methods, including horizontal dismantling and onshore disposal, vertical dismantling and onshore disposal, in-field disposal, deep water disposal, refurbishment and re-use, and continued maintenance, in order to determine the Best Practicable Environmental Option (BPEO). The BPEO covers technical feasibility risks to health and safety of the work force, environmental impacts, public acceptability and costs. (UK)

  20. Structural point defects in 'Iceland spar' calcite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trace element concentrations by micro-PIXE, cathodoluminescence (CL) emission spectra and electron spin resonance (ESR) spectra of Mn2+ in 'Iceland spar' calcite have been measured. The average rare earth elements (REE) abundances of the Iceland spar calcite revealed a concave shape with positive Eu and Tb anomalies. All samples show comparable average REE abundances compared to average chondrites standard. The REE signal in hydrothermal solution seems to be similar for the different locations and age of formation although the absolute REE concentration in the solution was certainly different. The CL-properties of investigated Iceland spar varied from orange to green. The orange luminescence is based on Mn2+ in Ca-position of calcite while this uncommon green luminescence is most likely attributed to UO22+ complex ions associated with electron-hole centres

  1. FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

  2. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  3. Physiological Analysis and Research of the Free Sparring Feet Hitting the Target Training%武术散打项目打脚靶训练的生理学分析与研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林利君; 王程辉

    2011-01-01

    文章通过对散打运动员打脚靶时心率变化的情况进行监控,运用实验法和数理统计分析法,进一步掌握运动员在训练时的心率频率及其恢复情况。并利用心率情况客观地了解训练和比赛的激烈程度,分析影响训练效果的主要因素,从而更好地为各个运动队和俱乐部进行有针对性的科学训练提供依据和参考。%Through monitoring the changes of heart rate of Sanda athletes practicing the free sparring feet hitting foot target,with the methods of experiment and mathematical statistical analysis,the paper further understands the athletes in training frequency and recovery of their heart rate.Utilizing heart rate objectively understanding the intensity of training and competition,the study does analysis of the main factors affecting the training effect,then to offer some traning evidences and references for the sport team and clubs training.

  4. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  5. PROOF OF CONCEPT FOR A HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD FOR HEURISTIC USABILITY EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An ongoing issue within human-computer interaction (HCI) is the need for simplified or ''discount'' methods. The current economic slowdown has necessitated innovative methods that are results driven and cost effective. The myriad methods of design and usability are currently being cost-justified, and new techniques are actively being explored that meet current budgets and needs. Recent efforts in human reliability analysis (HRA) are highlighted by the ten-year development of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk HRA (SPAR-H) method. The SPAR-H method has been used primarily for determining human centered risk at nuclear power plants. The SPAR-H method, however, shares task analysis underpinnings with HCI. Despite this methodological overlap, there is currently no HRA approach deployed in heuristic usability evaluation. This paper presents an extension of the existing SPAR-H method to be used as part of heuristic usability evaluation in HCI

  6. Approximations for column effect in airplane wing spars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Edward P; Short, Mac

    1927-01-01

    The significance attaching to "column effect" in airplane wing spars has been increasingly realized with the passage of time, but exact computations of the corrections to bending moment curves resulting from the existence of end loads are frequently omitted because of the additional labor involved in an analysis by rigorously correct methods. The present report represents an attempt to provide for approximate column effect corrections that can be graphically or otherwise expressed so as to be applied with a minimum of labor. Curves are plotted giving approximate values of the correction factors for single and two bay trusses of varying proportions and with various relationships between axial and lateral loads. It is further shown from an analysis of those curves that rough but useful approximations can be obtained from Perry's formula for corrected bending moment, with the assumed distance between points of inflection arbitrarily modified in accordance with rules given in the report. The discussion of general rules of variation of bending stress with axial load is accompanied by a study of the best distribution of the points of support along a spar for various conditions of loading.

  7. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@Risk analysis is a useful tool for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data, contaminant residue levels, statistical tools, exposure values and relevant variants. Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates, along with statutory, engineering, economic, social, and political factors, in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options (NRC, 1983).

  8. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KYU-HAWNYANG

    2001-01-01

    Risk analysis is a useful too for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data.contaminant residue levels,statistical tools,exposure values and relevant variants,Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates,along with statutory,engineering,economic,social,and political factors,in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options(NRC,1983).

  9. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KYU-HWAN; YANG

    2001-01-01

    Risk analysis is a useful tool for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data, contaminant residue levels, statistical tools, exposure values and relevant variants. Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates, along with statutory, engineering, economic, social, and political factors, in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options (NRC, 1983).……

  10. RISK ANALYSIS DEVELOPED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgiana Cristina NUKINA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Through Risk analysis developed model deciding whether control measures suitable for implementation. However, the analysis determines whether the benefits of a data control options cost more than the implementation.

  11. "Nonlinear coupled dynamic response of offshore spar platforms under regular sea waves" by A.K. Agarwal and A.K. Jain. Ocean Engineering 30; 2003; 517-555

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    the analysis of dynamic response of offshore spar plat- form under regular waves. They have rightly highlighted the features of present generation Spar. They also reviewed in detail (about three-and-half pages) on Spar for which itself could have been a review... have to be taken care to withstand worse weather conditions. Some assumptions carried out by the authors may hold good for the sake Fig 1. Three prominent motions of Spar platform 792 Letter to the editor / Ocean Engineering 31 (2004) 791...

  12. Spar genetic analysis of two invasive species of Cichla (Tucunaré (Perciformes: Cichlidae in the Paraná river basin = Análise genética via spar, de duas espécies de Cichla (Tucunaré (Perciformes: Cichlidae introduzidas na Bacia do rio Paraná

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanna Caputo Almeida-Ferreira

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of exotic species in lake ecosystems has been greatly highlighted in the literature worldwide. Since introduction may threaten diversity of native fish, the issue turns up to be of paramount importance. Ecological effects may be predation, competition, parasitism or genetic, that is, changes in the genetic pool of populations owing to the occurrence of hybrids. Although the Tucunaré fish (Cichla is native to the Amazon region, it can be foundin other hydrographic basins in which it has been introduced. RAPD molecular marker research showed that there are two species (Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti belonging to the genus Cichla in the rivers of the Paraná basin. Different morphotypes in the region may also be due to hybridization. Current research used SPAR molecular markers to confirm the presence of hybrids and the rupture of isolation mechanisms. Seventy-two specimens collected in several sites of the river Paraná and Amazon basins were analyzed. Since exclusive SPAR molecular markers were obtained for Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti populations, the introduction of the two species in the region has been confirmed. Identification of the markers in specimens of theParaná river basin confirmed hybridization between these exotic species.A introdução de espécies exóticas nos ecossistemas lacustres tem sido muito destacada na literatura mundial, pois ameaça a diversidade de peixes nativos, tornando-se uma questão de extrema importância. Os efeitos observados podem ser ecológicos, como predação, competição e parasitismo ou genéticos, como a ocorrência de híbridos. Apesar do peixe tucunaré (Cichla ser nativo da região amazônica, ele pode ser encontrado em outras bacias hidrográficas nas quais foram introduzidos. Estudos utilizando marcadores moleculares RAPD revelaram que existem duas espécies (Cichla kelberi e C. piquiti do gênero Cichla na bacia do alto rio Paraná e morfotipos diferentes que podem ser devido

  13. Risk analysis methodology survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  14. Nonlinear coupled dynamic response of offshore Spar platforms under regular sea waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agarwal, A.K.; Jain, A.K. [Indian Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Civil Engineering, New Delhi (India)

    2003-03-01

    Oil and gas exploration of large reservoirs in deep water has accelerated the need to explore structures suitable for these depths, which operate more economically in deep water. A Spar platform is one such compliant offshore floating structure used for deep water applications for the drilling, production, processing, storage and offloading of ocean deposits. The Spar is modeled as a rigid body with 6 degrees-of-freedom, connected to the sea floor by multi-component catenary mooring lines, which are attached to the Spar at the fairleads. The response-dependent stiffness matrix consists of three parts: (a) the hydrostatics provide restoring force in heave, roll and pitch; (b) the mooring lines provide the restoring force which are represented here by nonlinear horizontal; and (c) vertical springs. An unidirectional regular wave model is used for computing the incident wave kinematics by Airy's wave theory and force by Morison's equation. The response analysis is performed in time domain to solve the dynamic behavior of a moored Spar platform as an integrated system using the iterative incremental Newmark's Beta approach. Numerical studies are conducted for several regular waves. (Author)

  15. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  16. Iceland spar and its legacy in science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Kristjánsson

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In the late 17th century, Rasmus Bartholin and Christiaan Huygens investigated a curious optical property of crystals found at Helgustaðir in Eastern Iceland. This property which has been called double refraction, revealed in the 19th century a new aspect of light which turned out to be very useful as a probe of the internal structure of matter. Clear specimens of these crystals, an unusually pure variety of calcite, have since around 1780 been known as ''Iceland spar''. Few if any other localities yielding calcite crystals of comparable size and quality were discovered before 1900, and no alternatives for use in precision optical instrumentation were developed until the 1930s. Hundreds of tons of calcite were exported from Helgustaðir, mostly between 1850 and 1925. However, little information has been found on trading routes for the material of optical quality, so that some enigmas remain regarding its supply-demand situation. A study of the scientific literature in the period up to 1930 has revealed that results obtained with the aid of Iceland spar accelerated progress within the earth sciences (in mineralogy and petrology, physics, chemistry, and biology, even by decades. This has also influenced the development of technology and of medicine in various direct and indirect ways.

  17. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  18. Astrophysics and Fusion Plasmas: application of the SparSpec algorithm to the data analysis and design of the ITER high-frequency Mirnov coil diagnostic system

    OpenAIRE

    Testa, Duccio; Carfantan, Herve; Chavan, Rene; Fasoli, Ambrogio; Lister, Jo; Moret, Jean-Marc; Panis, Theodoros; Sanchez, Francisco; Toussaint, Matthieu; Klein, Alexander; Snipes, Jo; Encheva, Anna; Vayakis, George; Walker, Christopher; Arshad, Shakeib

    2008-01-01

    Analysis of magnetic fluctuations is important for understanding the magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) properties of fusion plasmas. These properties affect nearly all aspects of behaviour of magnetic confinement, and thus are of interest in topics ranging from global plasma stability, control, and disruption avoidance, to more subtle areas such as MHD spectroscopy. Mode number analysis is generally accomplished by interpreting signals from a finite number of Mirnov coils, which typically are uneven...

  19. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  20. Targeted assets risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwsema, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessments utilising the consolidated risk assessment process as described by Public Safety Canada and the Centre for Security Science utilise the five threat categories of natural, human accidental, technological, human intentional and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or explosive (CBRNE). The categories of human intentional and CBRNE indicate intended actions against specific targets. It is therefore necessary to be able to identify which pieces of critical infrastructure represent the likely targets of individuals with malicious intent. Using the consolidated risk assessment process and the target capabilities list, coupled with the CARVER methodology and a security vulnerability analysis, it is possible to identify these targeted assets and their weaknesses. This process can help emergency managers to identify where resources should be allocated and funding spent. Targeted Assets Risk Analysis (TARA) presents a new opportunity to improve how risk is measured, monitored, managed and minimised through the four phases of emergency management, namely, prevention, preparation, response and recovery. To reduce risk throughout Canada, Defence Research and Development Canada is interested in researching the potential benefits of a comprehensive approach to risk assessment and management. The TARA provides a framework against which potential human intentional threats can be measured and quantified, thereby improving safety for all Canadians. PMID:23615063

  1. Risk Analysis of Marine Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis

    1998-01-01

    Basic concepts of risk analysis is introduced. Formulation and analysis of fault and event trees are treated.......Basic concepts of risk analysis is introduced. Formulation and analysis of fault and event trees are treated....

  2. Plan for the Brent Spar. Wind and wave energy converter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In a competition on the future of the much discussed oil platform Brent Spar of Shell the idea to retrofit the platform into a combined wind/wave energy converter appears to be an attractive option for Shell

  3. SPAR: a random forest-based predictor for self-interacting proteins with fine-grained domain information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuhan; Yang, Shiping; Li, Chen; Zhang, Ziding; Song, Jiangning

    2016-07-01

    Protein self-interaction, i.e. the interaction between two or more identical proteins expressed by one gene, plays an important role in the regulation of cellular functions. Considering the limitations of experimental self-interaction identification, it is necessary to design specific bioinformatics tools for self-interacting protein (SIP) prediction from protein sequence information. In this study, we proposed an improved computational approach for SIP prediction, termed SPAR (Self-interacting Protein Analysis serveR). Firstly, we developed an improved encoding scheme named critical residues substitution (CRS), in which the fine-grained domain-domain interaction information was taken into account. Then, by employing the Random Forest algorithm, the performance of CRS was evaluated and compared with several other encoding schemes commonly used for sequence-based protein-protein interaction prediction. Through the tenfold cross-validation tests on a balanced training dataset, CRS performed the best, with the average accuracy up to 72.01 %. We further integrated CRS with other encoding schemes and identified the most important features using the mRMR (the minimum redundancy maximum relevance) feature selection method. Our SPAR model with selected features achieved an average accuracy of 92.09 % on the human-independent test set (the ratio of positives to negatives was about 1:11). Besides, we also evaluated the performance of SPAR on an independent yeast test set (the ratio of positives to negatives was about 1:8) and obtained an average accuracy of 76.96 %. The results demonstrate that SPAR is capable of achieving a reasonable performance in cross-species application. The SPAR server is freely available for academic use at http://systbio.cau.edu.cn/zzdlab/spar/ . PMID:27074717

  4. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  5. Spar genetic analysis of two invasive species of Cichla (Tucunaré (Perciformes: Cichlidae in the Paraná river basin - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v33i1.4855 Spar genetic analysis of two invasive species of Cichla (Tucunaré (Perciformes: Cichlidae in the Paraná river basin - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v33i1.4855

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto José Prioli

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of exotic species in lake ecosystems has been greatly highlighted in the literature worldwide. Since introduction may threaten diversity of native fish, the issue turns up to be of paramount importance. Ecological effects may be predation, competition, parasitism or genetic, that is, changes in the genetic pool of populations owing to the occurrence of hybrids. Although the Tucunaré fish (Cichla is native to the Amazon region, it can be found in other hydrographic basins in which it has been introduced. RAPD molecular marker research showed that there are two species (Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti belonging to the genus Cichla in the rivers of the Paraná basin. Different morphotypes in the region may also be due to hybridization. Current research used SPAR molecular markers to confirm the presence of hybrids and the rupture of isolation mechanisms. Seventy-two specimens collected in several sites of the river Paraná and Amazon basins were analyzed. Since exclusive SPAR molecular markers were obtained for Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti populations, the introduction of the two species in the region has been confirmed. Identification of the markers in specimens of the Paraná river basin confirmed hybridization between these exotic species.The introduction of exotic species in lake ecosystems has been greatly highlighted in the literature worldwide. Since introduction may threaten diversity of native fish, the issue turns up to be of paramount importance. Ecological effects may be predation, competition, parasitism or genetic, that is, changes in the genetic pool of populations owing to the occurrence of hybrids. Although the Tucunaré fish (Cichla is native to the Amazon region, it can be found in other hydrographic basins in which it has been introduced. RAPD molecular marker research showed that there are two species (Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti belonging to the genus Cichla in the rivers of the Paraná basin. Different

  6. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  7. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  8. Numerical Study on Global Motion of Truss Spar in Frequency and Time Domains for the Liwan 3-1 Area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Lu; LI Binbin; OU Jinping

    2011-01-01

    Using frequency and time domain analysis, the authors analyzed the hydrodynamics and motion behavior of a Truss Spar platform at a water depth of 1500 m in the Liwan 3-1 area of the South China Sea. Firstly, the seakeeping ability is acquired in the frequency domain by calculating the hull's hydrodynamics and comparing with a semi-submersible platform. The random wave analysis for 100-year, 10-year and 1-year return periods in Liwan 3-1 distinctly shows lower heave but larger surge and pitch responses of the Truss Spar than those of a semi-submersible. Secondly, 3-hour motions of the Truss Spar are predicted and compared in the time domain under 100-year return period conditions in Liwan 3-1 and the Gulf of Mexico. Thirdly, the hull/mooring line coupled and uncoupled models are compared. Finally, the responses of the Truss Spar under 10-year and 1-year return period conditions are assessed. The results reveal that the mooring line damping reflected by the coupled model distinctly decreases the low frequency motior The maximum heave response for 100-year return period waves is 1.23m and below 0. 1m for the case of 1-year return period.

  9. Skylab Apollo Telescope Mount Spar and Sun End

    Science.gov (United States)

    1971-01-01

    The Apollo Telescope Mount (ATM) was designed and developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center and served as the primary scientific instrument unit aboard Skylab (1973-1979). The ATM contained eight complex astronomical instruments designed to observe the Sun over a wide spectrum from visible light to x-rays. This image depicts the sun end and spar of the ATM flight unit showing individual telescopes. All solar telescopes, the fine Sun sensors, and some auxiliary systems are mounted on the spar, a cruciform lightweight perforated metal mounting panel that divides the canister lengthwise into four equal compartments. The spar assembly was nested inside a cylindrical canister that fit into a complex frame named the rack, and was protected by the solar shield.

  10. Dynamic Responses of Truss Spar Due to Wave Actions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.J. Kurian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Spar platforms have been used for drilling, production and storage of oil and gas in the offshore deepwater region. The structure is installed at the deepwater locations in the sea and is exposed to continuous action of wind, wave, current and other environmental forces. Wave force constitutes about 70% of the total environmental force and could be considered as the most significant force affecting the dynamic responses needed for the design of these structures. In this study, the dynamic responses of the truss spar due to wave actions including the wave force theories and wave propagation directions are investigated. Numerical simulations are developed to investigate the accuracy of the wave force theories i.e., Morison equation and Diffraction theory, for large structure such as truss spar. The investigation is further expanded to study responses of the truss spar due to variations directions of the wave propagated. The truss spar is modelled as a rigid body with three degrees of freedom restrained by mooring lines. In the simulation, the mass, damping and stiffness matrices are evaluated at every time step. The equations of motion are formulated for the platform dynamic equilibrium and solved by using Newmark Beta method. To compute the wave force for truss spar, which is large compared to the wave length, Diffraction theory was found to be more appropriate. The Morison equation was found applicable only at the high frequency range. Short crested waves resulted in smaller responses in all the motions than that for long crested waves. Hence, it would be appropriate to consider the short crested wave statistics for the optimum design.

  11. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  12. Multiple piece turbine engine airfoil with a structural spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vance, Steven J.

    2011-10-11

    A multiple piece turbine airfoil having an outer shell with an airfoil tip that is attached to a root with an internal structural spar is disclosed. The root may be formed from first and second sections that include an internal cavity configured to receive and secure the one or more components forming the generally elongated airfoil. The internal structural spar may be attached to an airfoil tip and place the generally elongated airfoil in compression. The configuration enables each component to be formed from different materials to reduce the cost of the materials and to optimize the choice of material for each component.

  13. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  14. Advanced grid-stiffened composite shells for applications in heavy-lift helicopter rotor blade spars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan Nampy, Sreenivas

    Modern rotor blades are constructed using composite materials to exploit their superior structural performance compared to metals. Helicopter rotor blade spars are conventionally designed as monocoque structures. Blades of the proposed Heavy Lift Helicopter are envisioned to be as heavy as 800 lbs when designed using the monocoque spar design. A new and innovative design is proposed to replace the conventional spar designs with light weight grid-stiffened composite shell. Composite stiffened shells have been known to provide excellent strength to weight ratio and damage tolerance with an excellent potential to reduce weight. Conventional stringer--rib stiffened construction is not suitable for rotor blade spars since they are limited in generating high torsion stiffness that is required for aeroelastic stability of the rotor. As a result, off-axis (helical) stiffeners must be provided. This is a new design space where innovative modeling techniques are needed. The structural behavior of grid-stiffened structures under axial, bending, and torsion loads, typically experienced by rotor blades need to be accurately predicted. The overall objective of the present research is to develop and integrate the necessary design analysis tools to conduct a feasibility study in employing grid-stiffened shells for heavy-lift rotor blade spars. Upon evaluating the limitations in state-of-the-art analytical models in predicting the axial, bending, and torsion stiffness coefficients of grid and grid-stiffened structures, a new analytical model was developed. The new analytical model based on the smeared stiffness approach was developed employing the stiffness matrices of the constituent members of the grid structure such as an arch, helical, or straight beam representing circumferential, helical, and longitudinal stiffeners. This analysis has the capability to model various stiffening configurations such as angle-grid, ortho-grid, and general-grid. Analyses were performed using an

  15. Numerical Simulation of Wave Loading on a SPAR Platform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleefsman, K.M.T.; Veldman, A.E.P.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes a study of simulation of wave loading on a SPAR platform. The method used for the simulations is based on the Navier-Stokes equations, discretised using a finite volume method. The free-surface displacement is described by the VOF-method combined with a local height function. Th

  16. Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

  17. Operational Risk - Scenario Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Rippel, Milan; Teplý, Petr

    2008-01-01

    Operational risk management and measurement has been paid an increasing attention in last years. The main two reasons are the Basel II requirements that were to be complied with by all international active financial institutions by the end of 2006 and recent severe operational risk loss events. This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed ...

  18. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  19. Nanoparticles: Uncertainty Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    2012-01-01

    Scientific uncertainty plays a major role in assessing the potential environmental risks of nanoparticles. Moreover, there is uncertainty within fundamental data and information regarding the potential environmental and health risks of nanoparticles, hampering risk assessments based on standard...... approaches. To date, there have been a number of different approaches to assess uncertainty of environmental risks in general, and some have also been proposed in the case of nanoparticles and nanomaterials. In recent years, others have also proposed that broader assessments of uncertainty are also needed in...... order to handle the complex potential risks of nanoparticles, including more descriptive characterizations of uncertainty. Some of these approaches are presented and discussed herein, in which the potential strengths and limitations of these approaches are identified along with further challenges for...

  20. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  1. Object Oriented Risk Analysis Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, M. Güell I.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2009-04-01

    In the framework of the RISET Project (Interfaculty Network of Support to Education and Technology) an educational tool for introducing risk analysis has been developed. This workshop enables to carry a group of students (role-play game) through a step-by-step process of risk identification and quantification. The aim is to assess risk in a characteristic alpine village regarding natural hazards (rockfall, snow avalanche, flooding…) and is oriented to affected objects such as buildings, infrastructures... The workshop contains the following steps: 1.- Planning of the study and definition of stakeholders 2.- Hazard identification 3.- Risk analysis 4.- Risk assessment 5.- Proposition of mitigation measures 6- Risk management and cost-benefit analysis. During the process, information related to past events and useful concepts are provided in order to bring up discussion and decision making. The Risk Matrix and other graphical tools allow having a visual representation of the risk level and help to prioritize counter measures. At the end of the workshop, there is the possibility to compare the results between different groups and print out a summarizing report. This approach provides a rapid and comprehensible risk evaluation. The workshop is accessible from the internet and will be used for educational purposes at bachelor and master level as well as for external persons dealing with risk analysis.

  2. The components of microbiological risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gaetano Liuzzo; Stefano Bentley; Federica Giacometti; Andrea Serraino

    2015-01-01

    The paper describes the process of risk analysis in a food safety perspective. The steps of risk analysis defined as a process consisting of three interconnected components (risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication) are analysed. The different components of the risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are further described.

  3. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  4. Risk analysis: opening the process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubert, Ph. [CEA/Fontenay-aux-Roses, Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, IPSN, 92 (France); Mays, C. [Institut Symlog, 94 - Cachan (France)

    1998-07-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. Most of the papers are analysed in the INIS data base and twelve in the ETDE data base. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process and most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but new debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risk analysis, even in its most 'technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional backgrounds, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and verifiable. Public perceptions and behavioural preferences must be identified and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational

  5. Risk analysis and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, H. E.

    1990-01-01

    Present software development accomplishments are indicative of the emerging interest in and increasing efforts to provide risk assessment backbone tools in the manned spacecraft engineering community. There are indications that similar efforts are underway in the chemical processes industry and are probably being planned for other high risk ground base environments. It appears that complex flight systems intended for extended manned planetary exploration will drive this technology.

  6. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite the...... differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  7. COUPLING EFFECTS FOR CELL-TRUSS SPAR PLATFORM: COMPARISON OF FREQUENCY- AND TIME-DOMAIN ANALYSES WITH MODEL TESTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Fan; YANG Jian-min; LI Run-pei; CHEN Gang

    2008-01-01

    For the floating structures in deepwater, the coupling effects of the mooring lines and risers on the motion responses of the structures become increasingly significant. Viscous damping, inertial mass, current loading and restoring, etc. from these slender structures should be carefully handled to accurately predict the motion responses and line tensions. For the spar platforms, coupling the mooring system and riser with the vessel motion typically results in a reduction in extreme motion responses. This article presents numerical simulations and model tests on a new cell-truss spar platform in the State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering in Shanghai Jiaotong University. Results from three calculation methods, including frequency-domain analysis, time-domain semi-coupled and fully-coupled analyses, were compared with the experimental data to find the applicability of different approaches. Proposals for the improvement of numerical calculations and experimental technique were tabled as well.

  8. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  9. THE ANALYSIS OF FISCAL RISK

    OpenAIRE

    Alina Cojan

    2011-01-01

    This article describes the fiscal risk analysis, with emphasis on environmental and organizational factors, which should be taking into account in the risk management process. A special attention was given to the role of the fiscal policy and voluntary compliance related issues.

  10. Risk Analysis in Business Plan

    OpenAIRE

    Roháčková, Sabina

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to deliver insights into the field of structuring a business plan for start-up companies and implementing an efficient risk analysis in the course of business planning. In order to achieve this goal, this thesis challenges the theory with practice to equally reflect both perspectives. The theoretical part first reviews the literature dealing with business plan outlines and, then, presents the author's own systematic methodology to the risk analysis in business planning. The em...

  11. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  12. Variable Torque Control of Offshore Wind Turbine on Spar Floating Platform Using Advanced RBF Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Offshore floating wind turbine (OFWT has been a challenging research spot because of the high-quality wind power and complex load environment. This paper focuses on the research of variable torque control of offshore wind turbine on Spar floating platform. The control objective in below-rated wind speed region is to optimize the output power by tracking the optimal tip-speed ratio and ideal power curve. Aiming at the external disturbances and nonlinear uncertain dynamic systems of OFWT because of the proximity to load centers and strong wave coupling, this paper proposes an advanced radial basis function (RBF neural network approach for torque control of OFWT system at speeds lower than rated wind speed. The robust RBF neural network weight adaptive rules are acquired based on the Lyapunov stability analysis. The proposed control approach is tested and compared with the NREL baseline controller using the “NREL offshore 5 MW wind turbine” model mounted on a Spar floating platform run on FAST and Matlab/Simulink, operating in the below-rated wind speed condition. The simulation results show a better performance in tracking the optimal output power curve, therefore, completing the maximum wind energy utilization.

  13. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  14. Simplified Methods Applied to Nonlinear Motion of Spar Platforms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haslum, Herbjoern Alf

    2000-07-01

    Simplified methods for prediction of motion response of spar platforms are presented. The methods are based on first and second order potential theory. Nonlinear drag loads and the effect of the pumping motion in a moon-pool are also considered. Large amplitude pitch motions coupled to extreme amplitude heave motions may arise when spar platforms are exposed to long period swell. The phenomenon is investigated theoretically and explained as a Mathieu instability. It is caused by nonlinear coupling effects between heave, surge, and pitch. It is shown that for a critical wave period, the envelope of the heave motion makes the pitch motion unstable. For the same wave period, a higher order pitch/heave coupling excites resonant heave response. This mutual interaction largely amplifies both the pitch and the heave response. As a result, the pitch/heave instability revealed in this work is more critical than the previously well known Mathieu's instability in pitch which occurs if the wave period (or the natural heave period) is half the natural pitch period. The Mathieu instability is demonstrated both by numerical simulations with a newly developed calculation tool and in model experiments. In order to learn more about the conditions for this instability to occur and also how it may be controlled, different damping configurations (heave damping disks and pitch/surge damping fins) are evaluated both in model experiments and by numerical simulations. With increased drag damping, larger wave amplitudes and more time are needed to trigger the instability. The pitch/heave instability is a low probability of occurrence phenomenon. Extreme wave periods are needed for the instability to be triggered, about 20 seconds for a typical 200m draft spar. However, it may be important to consider the phenomenon in design since the pitch/heave instability is very critical. It is also seen that when classical spar platforms (constant cylindrical cross section and about 200m draft

  15. Complete Genome of the Attenuated Sparfloxacin-Resistant Streptococcus agalactiae Strain 138spar

    OpenAIRE

    Pridgeon, Julia W.; Zhang, Dunhua; Zhang, Lee

    2014-01-01

    Through the selection of resistance to sparfloxacin, an attenuated Streptococcus agalactiae strain, 138spar, was obtained from its virulent parent strain, S. agalactiae 138P. The full genome of S. agalactiae 138spar is 1,838,126 bp. This genome will allow comparative genomics to identify genes associated with virulence, antibiotic resistance, or other characteristics.

  16. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Through selection of resistance to sparfloxacin, an attenuated Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar was obtained from its virulent parent strain S. agalactiae 138P. The full genome of S. agalactiae 138spar is 1,838,126 bp. The availability of this genome will allow comparative genomics to identi...

  17. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different from...... conventional ships. To reach a documented level of safety, it is therefore not possible directly to transfer experience with conventional ships. The purpose of this paper is to present new rational scientific tools to assess and quantify the collision risk associated with HSC transportation. The paper...... analysis tools to quantify the effect of the high speed have been available. Instead nearly all research on ship accidents has been devoted to analysis of the consequences of given accident scenarios. The proposed collision analysis includes an analysis which determines the probability of a collision for a...

  18. Risk Dynamics─An Analysis for the Risk of Change

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Tailin

    2010-01-01

    The concept of risk has evolved over the centuries of human history. People care about risk because much of our property and human lives are constantly at stake in the face of unforeseeable future. Unlike the fixed, known past, the future is always uncertain to us. In fact, such uncertainty is where risk arises. Thus, people assess risk by identifying sources of uncertainty and manage risk by trying to reduce those uncertainties. Indeed, existing risk analysis may be reduced to an endless ant...

  19. Risk management application of fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has shown that the contribution of fires to the frequency of core damage and radionuclide release in some nuclear power plants can be significant. This article discusses the use of PRA results in fire risk management. The decomposition of these results leads to the identification of the most important contributors to the risk and, thus, allows for the identification of potential modifications that can have the greatest impact on risk. This paper discusses the process of generating these options and offers several insights that have been gained from an actual study. (author)

  20. Risk analysis in work process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The work organizing process integrated with risk analysis of Gadding Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station (GNPS) is depicted. This process is based upon worldwide successful practice and experience with the special characteristics of the plant organization and culture taken into account

  1. GROWING NEED FOR RISK ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk analysis has been increasingly receiving attention in making environmental decisions. or example, in its May 18, 1993 Combustion Strategy announcement, EPA required that any issuance of a new hazardous waste combustion permit be preceded by the performance of a complete (dir...

  2. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  3. Contests with deadly weapons: telson sparring in mantis shrimp (Stomatopoda).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, P A; Patek, S N

    2015-09-01

    Mantis shrimp strike with extreme impact forces that are deadly to prey. They also strike conspecifics during territorial contests, yet theoretical and empirical findings in aggressive behaviour research suggest competitors should resolve conflicts using signals before escalating to dangerous combat. We tested how Neogonodactylus bredini uses two ritualized behaviours to resolve size-matched contests: meral spread visual displays and telson (tailplate) strikes. We predicted that (i) most contests would be resolved by meral spreads, (ii) meral spreads would reliably signal strike force and (iii) strike force would predict contest success. The results were unexpected for each prediction. Contests were not resolved by meral spreads, instead escalating to striking in 33 of 34 experiments. The size of meral spread components did not strongly correlate with strike force. Strike force did not predict contest success; instead, winners delivered more strikes. Size-matched N. bredini avoid deadly combat not by visual displays, but by ritualistically and repeatedly striking each other's telsons until the loser retreats. We term this behaviour 'telson sparring', analogous to sparring in other weapon systems. We present an alternative framework for mantis shrimp contests in which the fight itself is the signal, serving as a non-lethal indicator of aggressive persistence or endurance. PMID:26399976

  4. Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, R. L. [Human Factors, Instrumentation and Control Systems Dept., Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83415 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)

  5. Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)

  6. Software reliability analysis in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) is a tool which can reveal shortcomings of the NPP design in general. PRA analysts have not had sufficient guiding principles in modelling particular digital components malfunctions. Digital I and C systems are mostly analysed simply and the software reliability estimates are engineering judgments often lacking a proper justification. The OECD/NEA Working Group RISK's task DIGREL develops a taxonomy of failure modes of digital I and C systems. The EU FP7 project HARMONICS develops software reliability estimation method based on an analytic approach and Bayesian belief network. (author)

  7. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  8. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian;

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies the...... effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... order: first, fire part (maximum heat release rate); second, evacuation part (maximum pre-evacuation time); and, third, frequency part (specific frequency of fire). The plausibility of these results is discussed with view to experiences from experimental studies and past fire incidents. Conclusively...

  9. Dam risk assistant analysis system design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In order to reduce the labor intensity and task difficulty of dam risk analysis and to meet the actual requirement of dam risk analysis,it is necessary to establish a dam risk assistant analysis system.The program structure and the implementation ways of the dam risk assistant analysis system are analyzed,and a procedural framework with "three-tier and multi-database" structure and "level structure" is established.The concept of dam risk assessment system modular development is proposed and the coupled mode of function module and data is improved.Finally,the dam risk assistant analysis system is developed using Delphi visual programming language.

  10. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  11. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  12. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  13. Uranium enrichment plant risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A method for risk analysis of enrichment facilities is presented and applied to a small scale ultracentrifuge plant. Internal events are identified and the consequences of accidental releases of U F6 are quantified in terms of its toxicological and radiological impact. It is shown that releases in the feed and the cascade areas offers no hazards to the public . Releases of liquefied U F6 in the withdrawal areas, associated with failures in the building isolation systems, may cause undesirable consequences. (author). 11 refs, 4 figs, 3 tabs

  14. Analysis of foreign schools of risk management

    OpenAIRE

    I.M. Posokhov

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to study the scientific development of foreign scientific schools of risk management and analysis of their main publications; the allocation of foreign scientific schools of risk management. The results of the analysis. Research of modern risk management is carried out leading foreign schools. The most famous school in the theory of financial risk and risk management is American school. Among its current members are D. Galai, H. Greuning, A...

  15. Primer on Environmental Risk Analysis, A

    OpenAIRE

    Shogren, Jason F.

    1990-01-01

    Throughout history, hazardous material has represented a risk to individuals. The task of regulating risk can be overwhelming. A regulator must interpret and coordinate a wide variety of information from experts and the lay public. To aid the regulator, the loosely coordinated field of environmental risk analysis has evolved. This paper provides a nontechnical examination of the four steps in the analysis of risks associated with an environmental hazard. The steps are (1) risk assessment--the...

  16. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  17. Fortran 77 interface specification to the SparsLinC 1.0 library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The SparsLinC library, written in C, has been developed for exploiting sparsity in automatic differentiation of codes. Issues pertaining to the proper interface to the library from Fortran programs are discussed, including the interpretation of Fortran INTEGERs as C pointers, and the representation of Fortran precisions in C. The Appendix contains the full set of Fortran Interfaces to the SparsLinC library

  18. An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Sinpyo

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine is presented. The effects of the Center of Gravity (COG, mooring line spring constant, and fair-lead location on the turbine’s motion in response to regular waves are investigated. Experimental results show that for a typical mooring system of a SPAR buoy-type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT, the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of the turbine can be considered negligible. However, the pitch decreases notably as the COG increases. The COG and spring constant of the mooring line have a negligible effect on the fairlead displacement. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that the wind turbine motion and its sensitivity to changes in the mooring system and COG are very large near resonant frequencies. The test results can be used to validate numerical simulation tools for FOWTs.

  19. An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sinpyo; Lee, Inwon; Park, Seong Hyeon; Lee, Cheolmin; Chun, Ho-Hwan; Lim, Hee Chang

    2015-09-01

    An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine is presented. The effects of the Center of Gravity (COG), mooring line spring constant, and fair-lead location on the turbine's motion in response to regular waves are investigated. Experimental results show that for a typical mooring system of a SPAR buoy-type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT), the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of the turbine can be considered negligible. However, the pitch decreases notably as the COG increases. The COG and spring constant of the mooring line have a negligible effect on the fairlead displacement. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that the wind turbine motion and its sensitivity to changes in the mooring system and COG are very large near resonant frequencies. The test results can be used to validate numerical simulation tools for FOWTs.

  20. Risk Analysis for Tea Processing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@ Itis lbviors that after all the disasters with dilxins, BSE, pathogcns,Footand Mouth disease a. o. and now shortly because of the possibillties of bioterrorism, thatFoodSafetyisalmostatthetopoftheagendaoftheEUfor theyearstocome The implementaion of certainhy gicneprinci plessuchas HA C C P and a transparent hygiene policy applicable to all food and all food operators, from the farm to the table, togetherwith effoctiveinstruments to manage Food Safety will form fsubstantialpart on this agenda. As an example external quality factors such as certain pathogens in tea will. be discussed. Since risk analysis of e. g. my cotoxing have already a quite long histoy and development in sereral international bodies and tea might bear unwanted (or deliberately added by terroristic action)contaminants, the need to monitor teamuch more regularly than is being done today, seems to be a"conditio sine qua non ". Recentoy developed Immuno Flow tests may one day help the consumer perhaps to find out if he gets poisoned.

  1. Inhalation Anthrax: Dose Response and Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Coleman, Margaret E.; Thran, Brandolyn; Morse, Stephen S.; Hugh-Jones, Martin; Massulik, Stacey

    2008-01-01

    The notion that inhalation of a single Bacillus anthracis spore is fatal has become entrenched nearly to the point of urban legend, in part because of incomplete articulation of the scientific basis for microbial risk assessment, particularly dose-response assessment. Risk analysis (ie, risk assessment, risk communication, risk management) necessitates transparency: distinguishing scientific facts, hypotheses, judgments, biases in interpretations, and potential misinformation. The difficulty ...

  2. Submarine Pipeline Routing Risk Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐慧; 于莉; 胡云昌; 王金英

    2004-01-01

    A new method for submarine pipeline routing risk quantitative analysis was provided, and the study was developed from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis.The characteristics of the potential risk of the submarine pipeline system were considered, and grey-mode identification theory was used. The study process was composed of three parts: establishing the indexes system of routing risk quantitative analysis, establishing the model of grey-mode identification for routing risk quantitative analysis, and establishing the standard of mode identification result. It is shown that this model can directly and concisely reflect the hazard degree of the routing through computing example, and prepares the routing selection for the future.

  3. Status of risk-benefit analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Horn, A.J.; Wilson, R.

    1976-12-01

    The benefits and deficiencies of cost benefit analysis are reviewed. It is pointed out that, if decision making involving risks and benefits is to improve, more attention must be paid to the clear presentation of the assumptions, values, and results. Reports need to present concise summaries which convey the uncertainties and limitations of the analysis in addition to the matrix of costs, risks, and benefits. As the field of risk-benefit analysis advances the estimation of risks and benefits will become more precise and implicit valuations will be made more explicit. Corresponding improvements must also be made to enhance communications between the risk-benefit analyst and the accountable decision maker.

  4. On-line updating Gaussian mixture model for aircraft wing spar damage evaluation under time-varying boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Structural health monitoring technology for aerospace structures has gradually turned from fundamental research to practical implementations. However, real aerospace structures work under time-varying conditions that introduce uncertainties to signal features that are extracted from sensor signals, giving rise to difficulty in reliably evaluating the damage. This paper proposes an online updating Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based damage evaluation method to improve damage evaluation reliability under time-varying conditions. In this method, Lamb-wave-signal variation indexes and principle component analysis (PCA) are adopted to obtain the signal features. A baseline GMM is constructed on the signal features acquired under time-varying conditions when the structure is in a healthy state. By adopting the online updating mechanism based on a moving feature sample set and inner probability structural reconstruction, the probability structures of the GMM can be updated over time with new monitoring signal features to track the damage progress online continuously under time-varying conditions. This method can be implemented without any physical model of damage or structure. A real aircraft wing spar, which is an important load-bearing structure of an aircraft, is adopted to validate the proposed method. The validation results show that the method is effective for edge crack growth monitoring of the wing spar bolts holes under the time-varying changes in the tightness degree of the bolts. (paper)

  5. Easy assessment of diversity in Jatropha curcas L. plants using two single-primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ranade, Shirish A.; Srivastava, Anuj P.; Srivastava, Jyoti; Tuli, Rakesh [PMB Division, National Botanical Research Institute, Rana Pratap Marg, Lucknow 226 001, U.P. (India); Rana, Tikam S. [Plant Biodiversity and Conservation Biology Division, National Botanical Research Institute, Rana Pratap Marg, Lucknow 226 001, U.P. (India)

    2008-06-15

    Jatropha curcas L. (physic nut) has drawn attention in recent years as a source of seed oil that can provide an economically viable substitute for diesel. Very little work on provenance trials and genetic resources of J. curcas L. has been reported so far. Though J. curcas grows widely in India and several collections of the plant are also maintained, pedigree and provenance records are not always available. This article reports our studies on the diversity amongst the accessions of J. curcas L., both amongst already held collections as well as from a few locations in the wild. Two single-primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods were used for this purpose. The accessions from the North East were most distant from all other accessions in UPGMA analysis. The NBRI, Bhubaneshwar and Lalkuan accessions were more related to each other. The UPGMA tree clearly shows well-separated accession groups: NBRI, Bhubaneshwar, North East, Lalkuan and Outgroup. The study suggests that this relatively recently introduced plant species shows adequate genetic diversity in India and that the SPAR methods are useful for a rapid assessment of the same. The methods provide important tools for analyzing the diversity within the available collections to shortlist the parental lines for adaptability trials and further improvement of Jatropha plants. (author)

  6. ARC/SPAR sealing system - Preliminary field evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ARC/SPAR sealing system, based on an ultra-sonic signature and designed for sealing CANDU-type spent fuel, has been undergoing field evaluation at Gentilly-2 600 MW Reactor for the last ten months. The test was designed to evaluate the hardware and software of the system, the effort required for the application and verification of the containment and seals, the interference with operator, the procedures and the false- and missed alarm rates. Routine use conditions were emphasized throughout the test. In the course of the trial the entire content of the spent fuel in the pond was sealed. Preliminary results indicate that the system is acceptable. Hardware, software and procedures except for the transducer worked well. Transducer failure occurred too frequently at an unacceptable rate. The problem was identified and will hopefully be overcome. Level of intrusion with operations could be considered acceptable. Inspectors carrying out seal application and verification were adequately trained and performed satisfactorily. Auto- and crosscorrelations are reported. Recommendations are made for the improvement of equipment and procedures. The test will continue until the end of this year

  7. Optimization design of spar cap layup for wind turbine blade

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    Based on the aerodynamic shape and structural form of the blade are fixed,a mathematical model of optimization design for wind turbine blade is established.The model is pursued with respect to minimum the blade mass to reduce the cost of wind turbine production.The material layup numbers of the spar cap are chosen as the design variables;while the demands of strength,stiffness and stability of the blade are employed as the constraint conditions.The optimization design for a 1.5 MW wind turbine blade is carried out by combing above objective and constraint conditions at the action of ultimate flapwise loads with the finite element software ANSYS.Compared with the original design,the optimization design result achieves a reduction of 7.2% of the blade mass,the stress and strain distribution of the blade is more reasonable,and there is no occurrence of resonance,therefore its effectiveness is verified.

  8. Credit Risk Rating Migration Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Popescu Madalina

    2006-01-01

    The Credit Risk Rating System main purpose is to measure credit risk and to rate credits by the risk they pose, providing a well informed decision making process to the management in order to promote safety and soundness of the bank. This system allows bank management to monitor credit risk and also to forecast trends in risk levels of a bank loan. The rating system should provide information on both the ability and willingness of the borrower to repay the loan. Also the rating system provide...

  9. Hazard and Risk Analysis in Culture Fisheries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.N. Ezekiel

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Culture fisheries is multi-faceted and also presents a diverse array of environment ranging from freshwater to marine and from simple stagnant ponds to high tech computerized closed indoor water recirculation systems. The industry is therefore, fraught with potential risks and hazards. Risk analysis is now widely applied in many fields that touch our daily lives. Risk analysis is a process that provides a flexible framework within which the risks of adverse consequences resulting from a course of action can be evaluated in a systematic, science-based manner. Governments and the private sector must often make decisions based on incomplete knowledge and a high degree of uncertainty. Such decisions may have far-reaching social, environmental and economic consequences. An integrated approach to risk analysis will assist the culture fisheries sector in reducing risks to successful operations from both internal and external hazards and can similarly help to protect the environment, society and other resource users from adverse and often unpredicted impacts. The principles for controlling hazards in Culture fisheries will include the identification of hazard, control of the hazard and monitoring of the effectiveness of the controls. This paper reviews the risk concept, general Principles, applications of risk analysis, management of hazards and risks in culture fisheries, application of risk analysis to culture fisheries and proffered management strategy to reduce or minimize hazards and risk in culture fisheries.

  10. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  11. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  12. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  13. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  14. Risk Analysis of Mussels Transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Wijsman, J.W.M.; Smaal, A. C.

    2006-01-01

    The risk that the transfer of mussels from the Irish and Celtic Sea to the Oosterschelde will lead to substantial ecological impact as a result of importing exotic nonindigenous species is small, but not totally absent

  15. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  16. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  17. Combining risk analysis and security testing

    OpenAIRE

    Großmann, Jürgen; SCHNEIDER, Martin; Viehmann, Johannes; Wendland, Marc-Florian

    2014-01-01

    A systematic integration of risk analysis and security testing allows for optimizing the test process as well as the risk assessment itself. The result of the risk assessment, i.e. the identified vulnerabilities, threat scenarios and unwanted incidents, can be used to guide the test identification and may complement requirements engineering results with systematic information concerning the threats and vulnerabilities of a system and their probabilities and consequences. This information can ...

  18. Analysis of information risk management methods

    OpenAIRE

    Zudin, Rodion

    2014-01-01

    Zudin, Rodion Analysis of information risk management methods Jyväskylä: University of Jyväskylä, 2014, 33 p. Information Systems, Bachelor’s Thesis Supervisor: Siponen, Mikko A brief overview in the information risk management field is done in this study by introducing the shared terminology and methodology of the field using literature overview in the first chapter. Second chapter consists of examining and comparing two information risk management methodologies propo...

  19. Analysis of foreign schools of risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.M. Posokhov

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to study the scientific development of foreign scientific schools of risk management and analysis of their main publications; the allocation of foreign scientific schools of risk management. The results of the analysis. Research of modern risk management is carried out leading foreign schools. The most famous school in the theory of financial risk and risk management is American school. Among its current members are D. Galai, H. Greuning, A. Damodaran, P. Jorion, J. Kallman, M. Crouhy, M. Mccarthy, R. Mark, T. Flynn and other scientists. Important contribution to the development of the theory and practice of risk management made British scientists and economists – the representatives of English Schools of Risk Management: T. Andersen, T. Bedford, A. Griffin, A. Zaman, R. Cooke, P. Sweeting, P. Hopkin, a German P. Schroder and others. A significant advance to the theory of risk management of German scientific school, based on the classic work of Zadeh has received significant results of the risk assessment using fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets. Graduate School of Risk Management of the University of Cologne is training and research group funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG under the project «Theoretical and Empirical Basis of Risk Management». The aim of Graduate School of Risk Management is to promote young scientists. The school risk management of the University of Cologne outstanding research conducted by German and foreign professors, such as: K. Mosler, A. Kempf, C. Kuhner, T. Hartmann-Wendels, C. Homburg, D. Hess, D. Sliwka, F. Schmid, H. Schradin. The author noted the existence and fruitful work in the capital of Switzerland Laboratory of risk management (Risk Lab Switzerland and its leading scientists: P. Embrechts, A. Gisler, M. Wüthrich, H. Bühlmann, V. Bignozzi, M. Hofert, P. Deprez, and the Basel Committee on banking supervision – Developer international standards of Basel

  20. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  1. Formal analysis of security metrics and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Krautsevich L.; Martinelli F.; Yautsiukhin A.

    2011-01-01

    Security metrics are usually defined informally and, therefore, the rigourous analysis of these metrics is a hard task. This analysis is required to identify the existing relations between the security metrics, which try to quantify the same quality: security. Risk, computed as Annualised Loss Expectancy, is often used in order to give the overall assessment of security as a whole. Risk and security metrics are usually defined separately and the relation between these indicators have not been...

  2. RISK ANALYSIS, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: GETTING MORE FROM OUR DATA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression are common statistical techniques used to analyze agronomic experimental data and determine significant differences among yields due to treatments or other experimental factors. Risk analysis provides an alternate and complimentary examination of the same...

  3. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  4. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize...

  5. Project cost analysis under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Florica LUBAN; Daniela HINCU

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an integrated approach based on Monte Carlo simulation and Six Sigma methodology is used to analyze the risk associated with a project's total cost. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to understand the variability in total cost caused by the probabilistic cost items. By Six Sigma methodology the range of variation of the project cost can be reduced by operating on the input factors with the greatest impact on total cost to cover the variation of 6 between the limits that were e...

  6. Services Cost Analysis Under Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Golea Pompiliu; Balogh Petru

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, an integrated approach based on Monte Carlo simulation and Six Sigma methodology is used to analyze the risk associated with a services cost. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to understand the variability in total cost caused by the probabilistic cost items. By Six Sigma methodology the range of variation of the service cost can be reduced by operating on the input factors with the greatest impact on total cost to cover the variation of 6s between the limits that were establis...

  7. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    The complete genome of a sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae vaccine strain 138spar is 1,838,126 bp in size. The genome has 1892 coding sequences and 82 RNAs. The annotation of the genome is added by the NCBI Prokaryotic Genome Annotation Pipeline. The publishing of this genome will allo...

  8. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  9. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  10. Numerical modeling of a spar platform tethered by a mooring cable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiangqian; Yoo, Wan-Suk

    2015-07-01

    Virtual simulation is an economical and efficient method in mechanical system design. Numerical modeling of a spar platform, tethered by a mooring cable with a spherical joint is developed for the dynamic simulation of the floating structure in ocean. The geometry modeling of the spar is created using finite element methods. The submerged part of the spar bears the buoyancy, hydrodynamic drag force, and effect of the added mass and Froude-Krylov force. Strip theory is used to sum up the forces acting on the elements. The geometry modeling of the cable is established based on the lumped-mass-and-spring modeling through which the cable is divided into 10 elements. A new element-fixed local frame is used, which is created by the element orientation vector and relative velocity of the fluid, to express the loads acting on the cable. The bottom of the cable is fixed on the seabed by spring forces, while the top of the cable is connected to the bottom of the spar platform by a modified spherical joint. This system suffers the propagating wave and current in the X-direction and the linear wave theory is applied for setting of the propagating wave. Based on the numerical modeling, the displacement-load relationships are analyzed, and the simulation results of the numerical modeling are compared with those by the commercial simulation code, ProteusDS. The comparison indicates that the numerical modeling of the spar platform tethered by a mooring cable is well developed, which provides an instruction for the optimization of a floating structure tethered by a mooring cable system.

  11. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  12. Farm Level Analysis of Risk and Risk Management Strategies and Policies: Cross Country Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Shingo Kimura; Jesús Antón; Christine LeThi

    2010-01-01

    This Working Paper presents the work on farm level analysis of risk management environment, strategies and policies. Two types of results are presented: statistical indicators of risk exposure at the individual level, and micro model simulation results on risk management strategies.

  13. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  14. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results

  15. Analysis and estimation of risk management methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kankhva Vadim Sergeevich

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available At the present time risk management is an integral part of state policy in all the countries with developed market economy. Companies dealing with consulting services and implementation of the risk management systems carve out a niche. Unfortunately, conscious preventive risk management in Russia is still far from the level of standardized process of a construction company activity, which often leads to scandals and disapproval in case of unprofessional implementation of projects. The authors present the results of the investigation of the modern understanding of the existing methodology classification and offer the authorial concept of classification matrix of risk management methods. Creation of the developed matrix is based on the analysis of the method in the context of incoming and outgoing transformed information, which may include different elements of risk control stages. So the offered approach allows analyzing the possibilities of each method.

  16. HACCP and risk analysis in global

    OpenAIRE

    Uhlenhopps Eldon K.

    2002-01-01

    Recent public concern regarding food safety, and the implementation of Global regulations and agreements on trade, have given rise to questions regarding the veterinarian’s role and expertise in formally assessing and mitigating these risk. The objective of this work is to demonstrate latest knowledge on Risk Analysis as a process, to review HACCP with regard to food safety and defense against introduction of infectious agents.

  17. HACCP and risk analysis in global

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uhlenhopps Eldon K.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent public concern regarding food safety, and the implementation of Global regulations and agreements on trade, have given rise to questions regarding the veterinarian’s role and expertise in formally assessing and mitigating these risk. The objective of this work is to demonstrate latest knowledge on Risk Analysis as a process, to review HACCP with regard to food safety and defense against introduction of infectious agents.

  18. Economic analysis of safety risks in construction

    OpenAIRE

    Teresa Bourbon; Fernando Santos; Alfredo Soeiro

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study revolves around the analysis of the safety risks involved with one construction project, and the respective economic effects of risk prevention and safety management. As a result of the co-ordination of systems, and harmonising of work between the Project Leader, Safety Co-ordinator and Contractor, an adequate strategy was developed for the safety of the project Escola de Ciências da Saúde da Universidade do Minho. The risk evaluation is carried out in simulated fo...

  19. BANKS IN EQUITY MARKET - A RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.S.Nemavathi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Equity market is often considered as the main engine driving the economy. Inemerging countries, equity market plays a vital role in economic development. Manyemerging markets, firms would need large quantum of fund to expand and be able to pursuethe prevalent high growth rates. Equity market is the only liquid financial market in manyemerging countries and hence its role in economic development cannot be overemphasized.In addition, all over the world, financial markets are getting less insular. The investors indeveloped countries are seeking investment opportunities beyond the confines of theirdomestic economy to enhance return and diversify risks. The investment in stock involvesmany risks. The investors have to carry analysis before investing in any stocks. Most of theinvestors are unaware about the analysis to be carried out before investing. This studyinvolves analysis of earnings per share, price to earnings and analysis of risk through betavalue, of the banks in equity market. Technical analysis helps the investor to know whetherthe stock is in over sold region or over bought region and to find any trend reversals. Basedon these analysis investor can make buy or sell decision. The researcher concludes that themaximum return is based on the maximum risk in which the investor is going to face.

  20. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    decision-makers and their advisors have lagged in going beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions. Whether it is a case like Brent Spar here in Europe or Yucca Mountain in the United States, significant lessons can be learned on how to make decisions in democratic societies

  1. Risk analysis for critical asset protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, William L; Ayyub, Bilal M; Kaminskiy, Mark

    2007-10-01

    This article proposes a quantitative risk assessment and management framework that supports strategic asset-level resource allocation decision making for critical infrastructure and key resource protection. The proposed framework consists of five phases: scenario identification, consequence and criticality assessment, security vulnerability assessment, threat likelihood assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. Key innovations in this methodology include its initial focus on fundamental asset characteristics to generate an exhaustive set of plausible threat scenarios based on a target susceptibility matrix (which we refer to as asset-driven analysis) and an approach to threat likelihood assessment that captures adversary tendencies to shift their preferences in response to security investments based on the expected utilities of alternative attack profiles assessed from the adversary perspective. A notional example is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed framework. Extensions of this model to support strategic portfolio-level analysis and tactical risk analysis are suggested. PMID:18076495

  2. Competence Set Analysis Under Risk and Uncertainty

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.

  3. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  4. Risk-driven security testing using risk analysis with threat modeling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Palanivel, Maragathavalli; Selvadurai, Kanmani

    2014-01-01

    Security testing is a process of determining risks present in the system states and protects them from vulnerabilities. But security testing does not provide due importance to threat modeling and risk analysis simultaneously that affects confidentiality and integrity of the system. Risk analysis includes identification, evaluation and assessment of risks. Threat modeling approach is identifying threats associated with the system. Risk-driven security testing uses risk analysis results in test...

  5. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative influence of model risk on risk management with a main focus on regulation issues. We present frameworks for measuring model risk and backtesting procedures for evaluating model quality. Furthermore, ...

  6. Dynamic modeling of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine

    OpenAIRE

    Savenije, L.B.; Ashuri, T.; van Bussel, G. J. W.; Staerdahl, J.W.

    2010-01-01

    The installation of floating wind farms in deeper water is encouraged by the stronger and steadier wind, the lower visibility and noise impact, the absence of road restrictions, but also the absence or shortage of shallow water. In the summer of 2009, the first large-scale floating wind turbine ”Hywind” was installed. Hywind is a spar-buoy concept with three catenary mooring lines. The experience with modeling floating turbines is still limited. Furthermore, existing models for the design of ...

  7. Variable Torque Control of Offshore Wind Turbine on Spar Floating Platform Using Advanced RBF Neural Network

    OpenAIRE

    Lei Wang; Shan Zuo; Song, Y. D.; Zheng Zhou

    2014-01-01

    Offshore floating wind turbine (OFWT) has been a challenging research spot because of the high-quality wind power and complex load environment. This paper focuses on the research of variable torque control of offshore wind turbine on Spar floating platform. The control objective in below-rated wind speed region is to optimize the output power by tracking the optimal tip-speed ratio and ideal power curve. Aiming at the external disturbances and nonlinear uncertain dynamic systems of OFWT becau...

  8. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  9. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  10. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  11. Risk analysis for confined space entries: Critical analysis of four tools applied to three risk scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burlet-Vienney, Damien; Chinniah, Yuvin; Bahloul, Ali; Roberge, Brigitte

    2016-06-01

    Investigation reports of fatal confined space accidents nearly always point to a problem of identifying or underestimating risks. This paper compares 4 different risk analysis tools developed for confined spaces by applying them to 3 hazardous scenarios. The tools were namely 1. a checklist without risk estimation (Tool A), 2. a checklist with a risk scale (Tool B), 3. a risk calculation without a formal hazard identification stage (Tool C), and 4. a questionnaire followed by a risk matrix (Tool D). Each tool's structure and practical application were studied. Tools A and B gave crude results comparable to those of more analytic tools in less time. Their main limitations were lack of contextual information for the identified hazards and greater dependency on the user's expertise and ability to tackle hazards of different nature. Tools C and D utilized more systematic approaches than tools A and B by supporting risk reduction based on the description of the risk factors. Tool D is distinctive because of 1. its comprehensive structure with respect to the steps suggested in risk management, 2. its dynamic approach to hazard identification, and 3. its use of data resulting from the risk analysis. PMID:26864350

  12. Demonstration of Enabling Spar-Shell Cooling Technology in Gas Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downs, James [Florida Turbine Technologies Inc., Jupiter, FL (United States)

    2014-12-29

    In this Advanced Turbine Program-funded Phase III project, Florida Turbine Technologies, Inc. (FTT) has developed and tested, at a pre-commercial prototypescale, spar-shell turbine airfoils in a commercial gas turbine. The airfoil development is based upon FTT’s research and development to date in Phases I and II of Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) grants. During this program, FTT has partnered with an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Siemens Energy, to produce sparshell turbine components for the first pre-commercial prototype test in an F-Class industrial gas turbine engine and has successfully completed validation testing. This project will further the commercialization of this new technology in F-frame and other highly cooled turbine airfoil applications. FTT, in cooperation with Siemens, intends to offer the spar-shell vane as a first-tier supplier for retrofit applications and new large frame industrial gas turbines. The market for the spar-shell vane for these machines is huge. According to Forecast International, 3,211 new gas turbines units (in the >50MW capacity size range) will be ordered in ten years from 2007 to 2016. FTT intends to enter the market in a low rate initial production. After one year of successful extended use, FTT will quickly ramp up production and sales, with a target to capture 1% of the market within the first year and 10% within 5 years (2020).

  13. SPAR X Technical Report for Experiment 76-22 Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bethin, J.

    1984-01-01

    The effects of gravity on Bridgman-Stockbarger directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi were studied in reduced gravity aboard the SPAR X flight and compared to normal-gravity investigations and previous eutectic Bi/MnBi SPAR flight experiments. The directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi results in either a dendritic structure connected with local cooperative growth or a coupled low volume fraction faceted/non faceted aligned rod eutectic whose Mn macrosegregation, MnBi rod size, interrod spacing, and thermal and magnetic properties are sensitive functions of the solidification processing conditions. Two hypoeutectic and two hypereutectic samples were solidified during 605 sec of furnace travel, with an initial 265 sec low-gravity interval. Comparison Earth-gravity samples were solidified in the same furance assembly under identical processing conditions. Macrosegregation in the low-g samples was consistent with a metastable increase in Mn solubility in the Bi matrix, in partial agreement with previous Bi/MnBi SPAR findings of MnBi volume reduction.

  14. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mo Chongxun; Liu Fanggui; Yu Mei; Ma Rongyong; Sun Guikai

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  15. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  16. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  17. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP)

  18. Single primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods reveal subsequent increase in genetic variations in micropropagated plants of Nepenthes khasiana Hook. f. maintained for three consecutive regenerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devi, Soibam Purnima; Kumaria, Suman; Rao, Satyawada Rama; Tandon, Pramod

    2014-03-15

    The genetic fidelity of in vitro-raised plants of three successive regenerations of Nepenthes khasiana Hook. f. was assessed using three different single primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods, viz., random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD), inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) and direct amplification of minisatellite DNA region (DAMD) markers. Out of 80 RAPD primers screened, 14 primers reflected a genetic variation of 4.1% in the first regeneration which was increased to 9.4% in the third regeneration. In the case of ISSR, out of 36 primers screened for assessment of genetic homogeneity of the regenerated plantlets, 12 primers showed an increase of genetic variation from 4.3% to 10% from the first to the third regenerations. In DAMD profiling, 15 primers were used for the evaluation of genetic fidelity where 8.47% of polymorphism was observed in the first regeneration which was increased to 13.33% in the third regeneration. The cumulative analysis reflected a genetic variation of 5.65% in the first regeneration which increased subsequently to 7.77% in the second regeneration and 10.87% in the third regeneration. The present study demonstrates SPAR technique to be an efficient tool for the assessment of clonal fidelity of in vitro-raised plants. PMID:24440289

  19. Empirical analysis of Japanese flood risk acceptability within multi-risk context

    OpenAIRE

    Zhai, G.; Ikeda, S

    2008-01-01

    This paper establishes a framework of a multi-risk context for analyzing acceptable risk beyond single-risk context and empirically examines how other risks affects flood risk acceptability based on Rational Action Paradigm (RAP) by using a survey conducted in the Toki-Shonai River region of Japan. The main findings obtained by cross-sectional analysis and covariance structure analysis within a multi-risk context can be summarized as follows.

    – Nearly half of th...

  20. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  1. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rasmuson, D M [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  2. Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates case

    OpenAIRE

    Ríos Insúa, David; Ríos, Jesús

    2013-01-01

    Some of the current world’s biggest problems revolve around security issues. This has raised recent interest in resource allocation models to manage security threats, from terrorism to organized crime through money laundering. One of those approaches is adversarial risk analysis, which aims at dealing with decision making problems with intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. We show here how such framework may cope with a current important security issue in relation with piracy in the S...

  3. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  4. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    OpenAIRE

    Maxime Frydman; Guifré Ruiz; Elisa Heymann; Eduardo César; Barton P. Miller

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security e...

  5. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  6. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  7. Risk Analysis of Safety-Critical Control Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Karol Rastocny

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with problems associated with risks analysis of a safety-critical control system. In the paper there are introduced recommendations enabling practical enforceability of risk analysis by the assurance of sufficient objectivity level. In the initial phases of the system lifecycle risk analysis serves for a tolerable hazard rate definition for individual safety relevant functions. In the end of the control system development process the risk analysis (an analysis of failures con...

  8. Risk analysis in maritime transportation : principles, frameworks and evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Goerlandt, Floris

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses are widely used tools for supporting decision making. Nonetheless, many criticisms have been raised against the discipline of risk analysis, e.g. technical analyses having a narrow focus, poorly examined claims of the ability of accurately measuring risk and lack of standards for quality assurance and risk analysis evaluation. In response to these criticisms, calls have been made for increased focus on these and other foundational issues, both in the general risk analysis discip...

  9. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  10. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative inf

  11. Risk analysis of lymphocytopenia with temozolomide radiochemotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Temozolomide (TMZ) and concomitant radiotherapy are often used to treat newly diagnosed glioma, followed by adjuvant therapy. TMZ causes severe lymphocytopenia, thereby increasing the risk of opportunistic infection (OI). We analyzed the risk factors of lymphocytopenia. Between October 2006 and December 2009, we examined 43 patients aged between 22 and 83 years (average age, 64 years) with primary glioblastoma (n=32), anaplastic oligoastrocytoma (n=4), anaplastic astrocytoma (n=2), anaplastic oligodendroglioma (n=2), anaplastic ependymoma (n=2), and unknown tumor (n=1). The patients received a combination of postoperative radiotherapy (5 days per week for 6 weeks; total dose, 60 Gy) and daily oral TMZ (75 mg/m2; 42 days). A total of 37 Out of 43 patients completed combined radiochemotherapy. Hematologic toxicities were graded according to the Common Toxicity Criteria version 4.0: leukopenia grade 3/4, 9%; neutropenia grade 3/4, 7%; lymphopenia grade 3/4, 61%. The non-hematological toxicities observed were as follows: fatigue, 83%; nausea, 74%; and vomiting, 33%. Multivariate analysis results suggest the following lymophocytopenia risk factors: female, body weight loss, and on trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. These results suggest that risk factors can predict severe lymphopenia during TMZ and concomitant radiotherapy. (author)

  12. Analysis of Operational Risks in Shipbuilding Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela MATEI

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Our paper emphasizes the opportunities provided both for the academic research and companies by using a proposed model of analyzing the operational risks within business in general and shipbuilding industry in particular. The model aims to display the loss distribution from the operational risk for each business line/ type of event, based on frequency and severity estimation of the events. These estimations are derived mainly from the history logs of internal loss events. The calculations extend over a certain period of time in the future with a certain level of confidence. It should also be mentioned that the proposed model estimates unexpected losses, without making any suppositions concerning the values of the expected and unexpected losses. Several ideas could be extracted by analyzing and synthesizing the theoretical models from available literature. These ideas were analyzed in order to develop a model for operational risk analysis that is adapted to shipbuilding. This paper describes a new model, which can be applied to the naval industry to quantify operational risks.

  13. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  14. Conceptual issues with risk analysis in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Lévy, Sébastien

    2015-04-01

    Risk analysis is a tricky procedure, where one can easily make mistakes. Indeed, although risk equations are rather general, transferring a methodology to another context or hazard type can often lead to inaccuracies or even significant errors. To illustrate this, common mistakes made with the Swiss methodology are presented, together with possible solutions. This includes the following: Risk analysis for moving objects only takes the process dimension into account (e.g. the length of a road section potentially affected by a landslide), but not the object dimension (e.g. the cars length). This is a fair simplification as long as the object dimension is considerably smaller than the process dimension. However, when the object is large compared to the process (e.g. rockfalls on a train), the results will be wrong. This problem can be illustrated by considering two blocs. According to this methodology a 1 m diameter bloc will be twice more susceptible to reach a train than a 50 cm bloc. This is obviously not correct. When it comes to rockfalls risk analysis on roads or railway found in the literature, the bloc dimension is usually neglected, in favour of the object dimension, which is a fair assumption in this context. However, it is possible to include both dimensions by using the sum of the lengths instead of one of them. Risk analysis is usually performed using 3 different scenarios, for 3 different ranges of return periods, namely 1-30, 30-100 and 100-300 years. In order to be conservative, the operator commonly considers the magnitude of the worst event that happens with a return period included between the class bounds, which means that the operator evaluates the magnitude reached or overpassed with a return period of 30, 100 and 300 years respectively. Then, since the magnitude corresponds to the upper bounds of the classes, risk is calculated using the frequency corresponding to these return periods and not to the middle of the class (and also subtracting the

  15. Econometric Analysis of Financial Data in Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Fantazzini, Dean

    2009-01-01

    This part completes the consultation series of Dean Fantazzini dealing with econometric analysis of financial data in credit risk management. Particularly, analysis of multidimensional credit risk models is continued from the previous discussion

  16. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  17. Empirical analysis on risk of security investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    AN Peng; LI Sheng-hong

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyzes the theory and application of Markowitz Mean-Variance Model and CAPM model. Firstly, it explains the development process and standpoints of two models and deduces the whole process in detail. Then 30 stocks are choosen from Shangzheng 50 stocks and are testified whether the prices of Shanghai stocks conform to the two models. With the technique of time series and panel data analysis, the research on the stock risk and effective portfolio by ORIGIN and MATLAB software is conducted. The result shows that Shanghai stock market conforms to Markowitz Mean-Variance Model to a certain extent and can give investors reliable suggestion to gain higher return, but there is no positive relation between system risk and profit ratio and CAPM doesn't function well in China's security market.

  18. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  19. FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Robin K.

    1976-01-01

    A program for seismic risk analysis is described which combines generality of application, efficiency and accuracy of operation, and the advantage of small storage requirements. The theoretical basis for the program is first reviewed, and the computational algorithms used to apply this theory are described. The information required for running the program is listed. Published attenuation functions describing the variation with earthquake magnitude and distance of expected values for various ground motion parameters are summarized for reference by the program user. Finally, suggestions for use of the program are made, an example problem is described (along with example problem input and output) and the program is listed.

  20. Feasibility of producing closed-cell metal foams in a zero-gravity environment from sputter deposited inert gas-bearing metals and alloys. Post-flight technical report, SPAR flight 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patten, J. W.; Greenwell, E. N.

    1976-01-01

    Metallography from experiment 24-10 obtained on the second space processing applications rocket (SPAR) flight is discussed. Results are considered along with results from the related experiments on the first SPAR flight. Conclusions are presented.

  1. An integrated approach to supply chain risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Marco, Alberto; Cagliano, Anna Corinna; Rafele, Carlo; Grimaldi, Sabrina

    2012-01-01

    Despite the increasing attention that supply chain risk management is receiving by both researchers and practitioners, companies still lack a risk culture. Moreover, risk management approaches are either too general or require pieces of information not regularly recorded by organisations. This work develops a risk identification and analysis methodology that integrates widely adopted supply chain and risk management tools. In particular, process analysis is performed by means of the standard ...

  2. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  3. Spatial interaction analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In severe probabilistic risk assessments (PRA), it has been shown that accident scenarios involving ''external events'', such as fires and floods, can make an important contribution to the frequency of core damage and radionuclide release. These events belong to the broader category of common cause events, and an important issue in the evaluation of these events is whether a complete set of scenarios has been considered. In this article, a systematic scoping method is described for identifying and ranking scenarios involving environmental hazards that originate within plant boundaries and for determining the scope of the following detailed external event analysis. This method is also known as spatial interaction analysis. It was developed as part of the Seabrook Station Probabilistic Safety Assessment and has since been improved and applied to two other PRAs

  4. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  5. Calibration and Validation of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Model using the FAST Dynamic Simulation Tool: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2012-11-01

    In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states.

  6. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss;

    2012-01-01

    In response to the challenges of conducting traditional human health and ecological risk assessment for nanomaterials (NM), a number of alternative frameworks have been proposed for NM risk analysis. This paper evaluates various risk analysis frameworks proposed for NM based on a number of criteria...... to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  7. Feasibility study of a semi floating spar buoy wind turbine anchored with a spherical joint to the sea floor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanz Martinez, Maria; Natarajan, Anand; Henriksen, Lars Christian

    2013-01-01

    The feasibility of a semi floating platform offshore wind turbine system is investigated at 120m water depth. The semi floating system consists of a 5MW wind turbine on a floater with mooring lines similar to a spar buoy and strongly anchored with a spherical joint to the sea soil. The stability of...... loads are obtained and compared with the corresponding loads from the same wind turbine mounted on a spar buoy and as a land based wind turbine. The results show a reduction in the ultimate and equivalent fatigue loads for the new system....

  8. Sound bites, science and the Brent Spar: environmental considerations relevant to the deep-sea disposal option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenpeace's high profile press campaign against the deep-sea disposal of the redundant Brent Spar oil platform has focussed attention on the need for greater knowledge of deep ocean ecology. Scientists from the Scottish Association for Marine Science, and the Institute of Oceanographic Sciences opposed Greenpeace's campaign and used the controversy to examine these issues more fully, highlighting errors and deficiencies in Shell's reports and press and Greenpeace publications. They conclude that the one-off deep-sea disposal of the Brent Spar might not be the environmental catastrophe anticipated. (Author)

  9. FJS I and C equipment technical risk analysis and strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During equipment manufacturing period of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant Expansion Project (Fangjiashan Nu clear Power Project), according to the FJS I and C equipment risk information, FJS owner's I and C staff classify the I and C equipment risk level, identify high risk level equipment and major technical risks, predictively conduct FJS I and C equipment risk analysis and make risk management strategy, take effective measurements, especially for DCS, TPCS and FSS. The important I and C equipment risk is known and under control, the risk level can be lowered, and this contributes to the technical quality of FJS I and C equipment. (author)

  10. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  11. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  12. Seismic risk analysis of the Beznau nuclear plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A seismic risk analysis was accomplished as part of the probabilistic risk assessment performed for the Beznau nuclear plant using state-of-the-art techniques. These techniques and their application to the Beznau project are discussed in this paper. The main elements of a seismic risk analysis are the seismic hazard evaluation, structure and component fragility analysis, plant logic analysis, and the assembly process. (orig./HSCH)

  13. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  14. Risk analysis : a need to communicate

    OpenAIRE

    Renn, Ortwin

    1989-01-01

    Effective communication does not mean luring people into accepting risks that they fear or hope to avoid. It means, however, giving people the tools to understand and participate in debates about risk and risk sources. The major goal of risk communication is to enhance understanding, to develop mutual respect, and to acknowledge conflicting values in the decisionmaking process. Ultimately, risk communication should provide a platform for rational conflict resolution and effective, democratic ...

  15. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  16. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    , for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for...... further structuring and enriching the taxonomies of society’s critical functions and threats, which form an important part of the model. Creating terminological ontologies is a time consuming work, and therefore there is a need for automatic tools for extraction of terms, concept relations and...... characteristics. Terminological ontologies must adhere to a number of constraints, and therefore tools for automatic validation of these ontologies are also needed. Methods and tools for automatic ontology construction are being developed by researchers at Copenhagen Business School. The tools developed may also...

  17. Modeling of Safety Functions in Quantitative Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Thien Duy

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative risk analysis in the offshore industry is mandated by the Norwegian legislation. A literature survey is carried out, related to the current legislation from the Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) and supporting NORSOK standards. Process accidents on offshore installations, operating on the Norwegian continental shelf are emphasized. A risk picture is the synthesis of a risk assessment, describing the risk level. Requirements to the risk picture are discussed, and associat...

  18. Comparative analysis of credit risk models for loan portfolios.

    OpenAIRE

    Han, C

    2014-01-01

    This study is distinct from previous studies in its inclusion of new models, consideration of sector correlation and performance of comprehensive sensitivity analysis. CreditRisk++, CreditMetrics, the Basel II internal-ratings-based method and the Mercer Oliver Wyman model are considered. Risk factor distribution and the relationship between risk components and risk factors are the key distinguishing characteristics of each model. CreditRisk++, due to its extra degree of freedom, has the high...

  19. Managing Software Project Risks (Analysis Phase) with Proposed Fuzzy Regression Analysis Modelling Techniques with Fuzzy Concepts

    OpenAIRE

    Elzamly, Abdelrafe; Hussin, Burairah

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to propose new mining techniques by which we can study the impact of different risk management techniques and different software risk factors on software analysis development projects. The new mining technique uses the fuzzy multiple regression analysis techniques with fuzzy concepts to manage the software risks in a software project and mitigating risk with software process improvement. Top ten software risk factors in analysis phase and thirty risk management techni...

  20. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  1. Risk analysis in nuclear energy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In nuclear energy like other energy sources risk is present. The risk assessment and comparison with proposed risk criteria in nuclear energy user country, need to be measured for nuclear power plant site selection, construction, operation and maintenance. Experience of long-term nuclear energy user countries need to be used in the risk assesment and criteria creation. In article are shown results of risk assessment in many human activities. Nuclear power plants accidents categorization is given. There are accidents shown which occurred at nuclear power plants. Basic information about probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant site evaluation are given. (author)

  2. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  3. Risk analysis of linear accelerator radiosurgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: To evaluate the toxicity of stereotactic single-dose irradiation and to compare the own results with already existing risk prediction models. Methods and Materials: Computed tomography (CT) or magnetic-resonance (MR) images, and clinical data of 133 consecutive patients treated with linear accelerator radiosurgery were analyzed retrospectively. Using the Cox proportional hazards model the relevance of treatment parameters and dose-volume relationships on the occurrence of radiation-induced tissue changes (edema, localized blood-brain barrier breakdown) were assessed. Results: Sixty-two intraparenchymal lesions (arteriovenous malformation (AVM): 56 patients, meningioma: 6 patients) and 73 skull base tumors were selected for analysis. The median follow-up was 28.1 months (range: 9.0-58.9 months). Radiation-induced tissue changes (32 out of 135, 23.7%) were documented on CT or MR images 3.6-58.7 months after radiosurgery (median time: 17.8 months). The actuarial risk at 2 years for the development of neuroradiological changes was 25.8% for all evaluated patients, 38.4% for intraparenchymal lesions, and 14.6% for skull base tumors. The coefficient: total volume receiving a minimum dose of 10 Gy (VTREAT10) reached statistical significance in a Cox proportional hazards model calculated for all patients, intraparenchymal lesions, and AVMs. In skull base tumors, the volume of normal brain tissue covered by the 10 Gy isodose line (VBRAIN10) was the only significant variable. Conclusions: These results demonstrate the particular vulnerability of normal brain tissue to single dose irradiation. Optimal conformation of the therapeutic isodose line to the 3D configuration of the target volume may help to reduce side effects

  4. Spar-type platform design for the offshore floating nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There exists the potential for substantial gains in safety, physical security, and economics for nuclear electricity supply through the development of an Offshore Floating Nuclear Plant (OFNP). Utilizing the most reliable and efficient construction techniques, this plant can be built from modular components in a shipyard as a partially submerged floating spar platform. The plant can then be floated to a site between 5 and 10 miles off the coast, moored in approximately 100-meter deep water, and connected to the grid via an underwater transmission line. The OFNP is designed to take full advantage of its environment to include passive cooling systems that eliminate the loss of ultimate heat sink accident, thereby decreasing the likelihood of severe accidents. The platform’s structural design, mooring system, and siting protect it against severe weather systems and render it immune to tsunamis and seismic activity. Furthermore, the OFNP containment design and venting procedures effectively eliminate the threat of serious land contamination, should a severe accident actually occur. The OFNP overall design builds on decades of offshore oil drilling experience and is derived from a shortened cylindrical spar platform. The platform has a skirt diameter of 75 m, a waterline diameter of 45 m, an operational draft of 48.5 m, and a total weight of about 38,200 tons when the skirt is empty. The spar design maximizes hydrodynamic stability, has been tested in various locations around the world in oil extraction, and offers significant protection to critical systems from external threats. The reactor containment is located below sea level and centered in a hull surrounded by seawater. This positioning offers both considerable physical security as well as unique opportunities in passive cooling. Watertight levels house safety critical systems (e.g. reactor, spent fuel pool, control room, battery room), the steam cycle, the condensate storage tank, and the desalination plant

  5. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  6. Comparative analysis between RiskA and Risk spectrum in fault tree calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    RiskA is a home-developed probabilistic safety assessment software by FDS team. Large numbers of real fault tree models of nuclear power plants are calculated by RiskA and Risk Spectrum. Comparative analysis shows that the fault tree qualitative and quantitative analysis of RiskA is accurate and efficient. On the contrary, Risk Spectrum may be ill-considered and faulty in some cases though it is used by 40% of the world nuclear power plants, as the probability of each MCS is inconsistent with theoretical value which is calculated based on the technology of rank truncation. (authors)

  7. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  8. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxime Frydman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  9. Comparative analysis of enterprise risk management models

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolaev Igor V.

    2012-01-01

    The article is devoted to the analysis and the comparison of modern enterprise risk management models used in domestic and world practice. Some thesis to build such a model are proposed.Статья посвящена анализу и сравнению современных моделей управления рисками предприятий, которые используются в отечественной и зарубежной практике. Предложены некоторые положения, на которых должны базироваться такие модели....

  10. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  11. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.;

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and...... severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of...

  12. Engineering risk analysis of water pollution. Probabilities and fuzzy sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In a unique and comprehensive way, this book analyzes the questions of risk and reliability in water quality. And more than that: It also develops a methodology to evaluate the environmental impact from wastewater disposal on rivers, groundwater and coastal areas. Major topics covered include: - Fuzzy set theory for engineering risk analysis; - uncertainty analysis of water quantity and quality data; - stochastic and fuzzy simulation of hydrosystems: Model selection under uncertainty, water quality management in rivers and aquifers, risk in coastal pollution; - decision theory under uncertainty: Groundwater pollution, risk management, risk-cost trade-offs. (orig./EF)

  13. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  14. Corporate Risk Disclosure: A Content Analysis of Swedish Interim Reports

    OpenAIRE

    Khaledi, Soheila

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this research is to examine the determinants of the level of corporate risk disclosure (CRD) in the interim reports of Swedish non-financial companies. A quantitative research approach is used, the sample data of which consist of 166 firms with 4,849 interim reports over a 10-year period. By utilizing the notion of risk and its definition, I have distinguished three categories of risk, namely risk as uncertainty, risk as threat and risk as opportunity. A systematic content analysis...

  15. Bank Liquidity Risk: Analysis and Estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Meilė Jasienė; Jonas Martinavičius; Filomena Jasevičienė; Gražina Krivkienė

    2012-01-01

    In today’s banking business, liquidity risk and its management are some of the most critical elements that underlie the stability and security of the bank’s operations, profit-making and clients confidence as well as many of the decisions that the bank makes. Managing liquidity risk in a commercial bank is not something new, yet scientific literature has not focused enough on different approaches to liquidity risk management and assessment. Furthermore, models, methodologies or policies of ma...

  16. Network analysis using organizational risk analyzer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The tool system of the organizational risk analyzer (ORA) to study the network of East Turkistan terrorists is selected. The model of the relationships among its personnel, knowledge, resources and task entities is represented by the meta-matrix in ORA, with which to analyze the risks and vulnerabilities of organizational structure quantitatively, and obtain the last vulnerabilities and risks of the organization. Case study in this system shows that it should be a shortcut to destroy effectively the network...

  17. CFD Simulation of the Vertical Motion Characteristics of the Moonpool Fluid for the Truss Spar

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bin Wang; Liqin Liu; Yougang Tang

    2014-01-01

    The research purpose of this paper is to estimate the impacts of the parameters of the guide plate on the vertical motion characteristics of the moonpool fluid. With the volume of fluid (VOF) method, three-dimensional models of the moonpool fluid motions of the truss spar platform are established. Simulation results are then presented for the moonpool forced oscillation by employing the dynamic mesh method and user-defined functions in FLUENT. The motions of the moonpool fluid and the loads on the guide plates are obtained for both cases of square-ring and crisscross. The results show that the shape and area of the guide plate at the bottom of the moonpool have a significant impact on the physical parameters of the moonpool, including the load on the moonpool guide plate, motion form of the moonpool fluid and the mass flow rate.

  18. CFD simulation of the vertical motion characteristics of the moonpool fluid for the truss spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Liu, Liqin; Tang, Yougang

    2014-03-01

    The research purpose of this paper is to estimate the impacts of the parameters of the guide plate on the vertical motion characteristics of the moonpool fluid. With the volume of fluid (VOF) method, three-dimensional models of the moonpool fluid motions of the truss spar platform are established. Simulation results are then presented for the moonpool forced oscillation by employing the dynamic mesh method and user-defined functions in FLUENT. The motions of the moonpool fluid and the loads on the guide plates are obtained for both cases of square-ring and crisscross. The results show that the shape and area of the guide plate at the bottom of the moonpool have a significant impact on the physical parameters of the moonpool, including the load on the moonpool guide plate, motion form of the moonpool fluid and the mass flow rate.

  19. Classification and treatment of LSA-sludge from the Brent Spar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessments of the levels of radioactivity in sludge from the Brent Spar storage tanks have been performed. Based on field and laboratory measurements, only 44 drums (of a total of 2268 drums) were identified as drums with 226Ra concentrations above the exemption level of 10 Bq/g given by the Authorities. Field measurements showed satisfactorily agreement with laboratory measurements. The drums containing radioactivity concentrations below the exemption level were classified as non-radioactive and shipped to Sloevaeg Industriservice AS for incineration. Only small amounts of radioactivity were found in the ashes after incineration. The concentrations in the offgas and the outlet water were below or close to the detection limit for gamma spectrometry. Incineration of sludge with activity concentrations below the exemption level was found to be a well-suited method for disposal. (orig.)

  20. Risk analysis: toward a standard method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The wide range of claims about the comparative risks of energy technologies is due as much to the immature development of the risk-assessment trade as to the scarcity of health and accident statistics. The risks of different systems often are not only compared inconsistently, but are calculated in a manner inappropriate to the decisions being made about energy technologies. Without a carefully constructed and agreed-upon framework for tabulating risks, it is possible to come to nearly any conclusion about comparative hazards. However, adherence to a few straightforward rules (some borrowed from financial accounting) is sufficient to ensure consistency

  1. Stress testing in credit risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ramanauskaitė, Giedrė

    2008-01-01

    The supervising institutions do not give to commercial banks indications what models have to be used for stress testing. This research was done in order to find out which mathematical/statistical models are and can be used in credit risk stress testing. Credit risk is one of the biggest financial risks that every bank faces. Stress testing is a tool of credit risk assessment that helps to estimate the consequences of the events that have really small probability to happen but if they occur, b...

  2. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Guixian Dong; Ning Zhang; Zhanpo Wu; Yumin Liu; Litao Wang

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS) and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs...

  3. A DST-based approach for construction project risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Taroun, A; J-B Yang

    2013-01-01

    Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk im...

  4. Diabetes and breast cancer risk: a meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    P Boyle; Koechlin, A; Robertson, C; Valentini, F.; Coppens, K; Fairley, L-L; BONIOL,M; Zheng, T.; Zhang, Y.; Pasterk, M; Smans, M; Curado, M.P.; Mullie, P.; Gandini, S; Bota, M.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The potential of an increased risk of breast cancer in women with diabetes has been the subject of a great deal of recent research. Methods: A meta-analysis was undertaken using a random effects model to investigate the association between diabetes and breast cancer risk. Results: Thirty-nine independent risk estimates were available from observational epidemiological studies. The summary relative risk (SRR) for breast cancer in women with diabetes was 1.27 (95% confidence interva...

  5. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  6. MULTI-OBJECTIVE APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS RISKS

    OpenAIRE

    Bashkatova V. S.; Bashkatov V. V.

    2015-01-01

    Business risk is an integral part of the economic activities of any organization. Currently, compulsory and one of the main criteria of normal and stable operation of the economic entity is timely risk assessment of entrepreneurial activity in order to prevent further negative consequences. In this article, we present a technique of multi-criteria approach to the analysis of business risks. The basic signs of increasing risks of entrepreneurship are formulated. On the example of the organizat...

  7. An Economic Analysis of Risk, Management, and Agricultural Technology

    OpenAIRE

    Chavas, Jean-Paul; Shi, Guanming

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses conditional quantile regression to analyze the effects of genetically modified (GM) seed technology and management on production risk in agriculture, with an application to the distribution of corn yield in Wisconsin. Using the certainty equivalent (CE) as a welfare measure, our analysis decomposes the welfare effects of risk, management, and agricultural technology into two parts: mean effects and risk premium (measuring the cost of risk). We document how biotechnology and ma...

  8. An Experimental Investigation of the Responses of Classic Spar Platform Subjected to Bi-directional Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.J. Kurian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of the bi-directional short-crested waves on the dynamic motion responses of the moored classic spar is demonstrated from the results of the models test in this study. Practically in the design of offshore structures, long-crested or 2-dimensional wave properties that propagated to one direction are considered. Even though such long-crested wave is widely used for the design purposes, it is hardly determined in the real sea. The wind generated sea state in the real sea conditions are indeed well represented by the short-crested waves. Short-crested waves are defined as linear summation of long-crested wave series that propagated to different directions. Hence, the motions of the model were investigated experimentally by conducting the wave tank tests in the wave tank of Offshore Laboratory of Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS. Five groups of bi-directional wave series were defined and exerted on the classic spar model, which fabricated by using steel with scaling factor of 1:100. From the results measured, it was found that similar trends of the responses in term of Response Amplitude Operator (RAO for surge, heave and pitch motions were obtained. Maximum responses of surge, heave and pitch were found due to wave crossing angle 90°, while minimum response was found due to wave crossing angle 135°, respectively. It could be concluded that the wave crossing angle 90° (BD3 gives the widest spreading for short crested waves, while the wave crossing angle 135° (BD4 gives the narrowest spreading for short crested waves.

  9. Risk Analysis of Business Intelligence in Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Alsufyani, Raed; Chang, Victor

    2015-01-01

    The paper discusses the issues of risk analysis of Business Intelligence on the basis of Cloud platforms. The study gives an account on various aspects of the issue such as benefits and risks, financial appliance, and a factual process of data analysis. The paper attempts to address the issue in terms of empirical knowledge as long as numerous organizations face difficulties concerning appropriate application of Business Intelligence in the Cloud environment for purposes of risk forecasting a...

  10. UML based risk analysis - Application to a medical robot

    OpenAIRE

    Guiochet, Jérémie; Baron, Claude

    2004-01-01

    Medical robots perform complex tasks and share their working area with humans. Therefore , they belong to safety critical systems. In nowadays development process, safety is often managed by the way of dependability techniques. We propose a new global approach , based on the risk concept in order to guide designers along the safety analysis of such complex systems. Safety depends on risk management activity, which core is risk analysis. This one consists in three steps: system definition, haz...

  11. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  12. Empirical Analysis of Urban Residents' Perceived Climatic Change Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Dai, Peihui; HUANG, LINGLING

    2014-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human survival and security, urban development is even more profound, and receives more and more attention. To explore the perceived status of urban residents for the risks of climate change and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, taking Wuhan for example, from the microscopic point of urban residents, we use factor analysis to classify the perceived risks and recognized risk reduction measures, use cluster analysis to divide the urban re...

  13. Project risk simulation methods – a comparative analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Constanța-Nicoleta BODEA; Augustin PURNUȘ

    2012-01-01

    Effective risk management provides a solid basis for decisionmaking in projects, bringing important benefits. While the financial and economical crisis is present at the global level and the competition in the market is more and more aggressive, the interest in project risk management increases. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of two quantitative risk analysis methods, Monte Carlo simulation and the Three Scenario approach. Two experiments are designed based on ...

  14. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260..., based on Applicant's: (A) Industry outlook; (B) Market position; (C) Management and financial...

  15. Science Based Governance? EU Food Regulation Submitted to Risk Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Szajkowska, A.; Meulen, van der B.M.J.

    2014-01-01

    Anna Szajkowska and Bernd van der Meulen analyse in their contribution, Science Based Governance? EU Food Regulation Submitted to Risk Analysis, the scope of application of risk analysis and the precautionary principle in EU food safety regulation. To what extent does this technocratic, science-base

  16. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  17. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  18. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  19. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  20. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-07-31

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation.

  1. Risk analysis considering accident in nuclear reactors and oil refineries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk analysis is an important tool to help decision-making, especially related to energy choices and their environmental consequences. This paper sets out to analyze the risk associated with deploying and operating a nuclear installation for later comparison with the risk of other energy sources such as oil. We have conducted a risk analysis based on the number of reactors-year and the number of worldwide accidents that have occurred in nuclear power plants. The same was done based on the number of refineries-year and the number of accidents that have occurred worldwide in oil refineries. Our results showed that the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants is smaller than the risk in oil production. We believe the proposed analysis might affect the decision-making process in the environmental area and contribute to a more sustainable energy future. (author)

  2. The Network's Data Security Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil BURTESCU

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Establishing the networks security risk can be a very difficult operation especially for the small companies which, from financial reasons can't appeal at specialist in this domain, or for the medium or large companies that don't have experience. The following method proposes not to use complex financial calculus to determine the loss level and the value of impact making the determination of risk level a lot easier.

  3. The Operational Risk – Comparative Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriela Victoria Anghelache; Ana Cornelia Olteanu

    2009-01-01

    In many cases operational risks tend to be underestimated, considering that the losses they cause are generally minor can’t threatening the survival of a bank. Losses resulting from these events come from a complex interaction between organizational factors, personal and market that do not fit into a simple classification scheme. Observing what happened in the past we can say that operational risk is an important question of the financial losses in the banking sector.

  4. Econometric Analysis of Financial Data in Risk Management (continuation). Section III: Managing Operational Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Fantazzini, Dean

    2008-01-01

    We continue publishing the four-part consultation of professor of Moscow School of Economics of Lomonosov MSU Dean Fantazzini. The first part, that appeared in 2 (10), 2008 of the journal, dealt with the introduction to the problem (section one: basic concepts and types of financial risks, methods of measurement) and also with the econometric approach to analysis of market risks (section two).Here a detailed review of methods of operational risk management (section three) is given. Finally, t...

  5. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  6. Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

    2010-01-01

    A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

  7. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  8. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  9. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    OpenAIRE

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks...

  10. Commercial Bank Risk Management: An Analysis of the Process

    OpenAIRE

    Anthony M. Santomero

    1997-01-01

    Throughout the past year, on-site visits to financial service firms were conducted to review and evaluate their financial risk management systems. The commercial banking analysis covered a number of North American super-regionals and quasi-money center institutions as well as several firms outside the U.S. The information obtained covered both the philosophy and practice of financial risk management. This paper outlines the results of this investigation. It reports the state of risk managemen...

  11. Risk Analysis in Construction Projects: A Practical Selection Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Alberto De Marco; Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem

    2013-01-01

    Project Risk Management (PRM) is gaining attention from researchers and practitioners in the form of sophisticated tools and techniques to help construction managers perform risk management. However, the large variety of techniques has made selecting an appropriate solution a complex and risky task in itself. Accordingly, this study proposes a practical framework methodology to assist construction project managers and practitioners in choosing a suitable risk analysis technique based on selec...

  12. Quantitative risk analysis of urban flooding in lowland areas

    OpenAIRE

    J. A. E. ten Veldhuis

    2010-01-01

    Urban flood risk analyses suffer from a lack of quantitative historical data on flooding incidents. Data collection takes place on an ad hoc basis and is usually restricted to severe events. The resulting data deficiency renders quantitative assessment of urban flood risks uncertain. The study reported in this thesis reviews existing approaches to quantitative flood risk analysis and evaluation of urban flooding guidelines. It proceeds to explore historical data on flooding incidents from mun...

  13. Panel Random Analysis of Credit Risk in Business

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Wei; ZHOU Yue-mei; ZHOU Ke

    2005-01-01

    Market economy is a kind of credit economy.The survival and development of an individual in the society are closely related with his credit. Without credit, market economy can not continue, the society can hardly run in good order and good health. This paper defines the basic concept of trade credit risk with its manifestation and brings forward the basic mode quantitatively analyzing the credit risk. The data structure of information is analyzed, the decomposition model of credit risk is structured and with the aid of statistical analysis, including regression analysis, analysis of variance, test of hypothesized, the description, classification, certification and confirmation of credit risk model are completed, then, we can describe and control the credit risk with the model to provide basis when building credit support system in today's society.

  14. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    High-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities

  15. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    High-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.

  16. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  17. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... degree of protection for the data, e.g., unencrypted, plain text; (6) Time the data has been out of VA... personal information that is processed or maintained by VA occurs and the Secretary has not determined... circumstances create a reasonable risk that sensitive personal information potentially may be misused. If...

  18. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  19. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  20. Comparative Analysis and Evaluation of Existing Risk Management Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this article lies on the specific features of the existing software packages for risk management differentiating three categories. Representative for these categories we consider the Crystal Ball, Haufe Risikomanager and MIS - Risk Management solutions, outlining the strenghts and weaknesses in a comparative analysis.

  1. Hydrodynamic Comparison of a Semi-submersible, TLP, and Spar: Numerical Study in the South China Sea Environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Binbin Li; Kun Liu; Gongwei Yan; Jinping Ou

    2011-01-01

    The South China Sea contains tremendous oil and gas resources in deepwater areas.However,one of the keys for deepwater exploration,the investigation of deepwater floating platforms,is very inadequate.In this paper,the authors studied and compared the hydrodynamics and global motion behaviors of typical deepwater platforms in the South China Sea environment.The hydrodynamic models of three main types of floating platforms,e.g.the Semi-submersible,tension leg platform (TLP),and Truss Spar,which could potentially be utilized in the South China Sea,were established by using the 3-D potential theory.Additionally,some important considerations which significantly influence the hydrodynamics were given.The RAOs in frequency domains as well as global motions in time domains under time-varying wind,random waves,and current in 100-y,10-y,and 1-y return period environment conditions were predicted,compared,and analyzed.The results indicate that the heave and especially the pitch motion of the TLP are favorable.The heave response of the Truss Spar is perfect and comparable with that of the TLP when the peak period of random waves is low.However,the pitch motion of Truss Spar is extraordinarily larger than that of Semi-submersible and TLP.

  2. Application of PRA (probabilistic risk assessments) methods for fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fire as a contributor to nuclear power plant risk has been evaluated extensively in more than 15 large-scale probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Since their first application 9 years ago, these studies have shown that fire can be an important contributor to plant risk, an extremely plant-specific conclusion. In this article, the evolution of the application of fire risk analysis to nuclear plants is summarized. Special attention is given to Appendix R, 10CFR50; the two-stage screening approach; multilocation fires; smoke propagation; adverse effects of fire protection systems; effectiveness of fire protection systems; and fires from earthquakes. 15 refs

  3. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  4. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  5. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  6. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  7. Pest risk analysis for Alternanthera philoxeroides

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson, Lars W.J.; Fried, Guillaume; Gunasekera, Lalith; Hussner, Andreas; Newman, Jonathan; Starfinger, Uwe; Stiers, Iris; van Valkenburg, Johan; Tanner, Rob

    2015-01-01

    Alternanthera philoxeroides presents a high phytosanitary risk for the EPPO region with a low uncertainty rating. A. philoxeroides is already present in the EPPO region in France and Italy. Further spread within and between EPPO countries is considered likely. The overall likelihood of A. philoxeroides continuing to enter the EPPO region is medium. It is not clear how this species entered the EPPO region and there are no clear pathways of further introduction, as the species is not widely tra...

  8. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  9. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  10. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  11. Risk analysis of radiography as a nondestructive testing method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The risk analysis was made in preparation of a safety manual for the wide variety of applications of industrial radiography. The safety manual is intended to serve as a guide to professionals, presenting the information about safety and health risks involved in a concise though very illustrative manner. The potential risks were listed and evaluated on the occasion of a meeting of experts in October 1999, who used the FMEA analysis, a quality management tool. The following methods or sources were analysed and rated in terms of risks involved: (a) ionizing radiation (b) electric power (c) handling of radioactive radiation sources (d) minor accidents (e) defect equipment (f) activities at construction sites (g) transportation of gear and instruments (h) auxiliary equipment. The risk evaluation presented in the paper also permits identification of problematic aspects in the daily routine. (orig./CB)

  12. A Project Risk Ranking Approach Based on Set Pair Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Feng; Chen Yingwu

    2006-01-01

    Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is a new methodology to describe and process system uncertainty. It is different from stochastic or fuzzy methods in reasoning and operation, and it has been applied in many areas recently. In this paper, the application of SPA in risk ranking is presented, which includes review of risk ranking, introduction of Connecting Degree (CD) that is a key role in SPA., Arithmetic and Tendency Grade (TG) of CDs, and a risk ranking approach proposed. Finally a case analysis is presented to illustrate the reasonability of this approach. It is found that this approach is very convenient to operate, while the ranking result is more comprehensible.

  13. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. PMID:26061899

  14. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  15. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2014-01-15

    An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials. PMID:24239259

  16. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  17. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability

  18. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures. PMID:27575259

  19. Development of a risk-analysis model. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-10-01

    This report consists of a main body, which provides a presentation of risk analysis and its general and specific application to the needs of the Office of Buildings and Community Systems of the Department of Energy; and several case studies employing the risk-analysis model developed. The highlights include a discussion of how risk analysis is currently used in the private, regulated, and public sectors and how this methodology can be employed to meet the policy-analysis needs of the Office of Buildings and Community Systems of the Department of Energy (BCS/DOE). After a review of the primary methodologies available for risk analysis, it was determined that Monte Carlo simulation techniques provide the greatest degree of visibility into uncertainty in the decision-making process. Although the data-collection requirements can be demanding, the benefits, when compared to other methods, are substantial. The data-collection problem can be significantly reduced, without sacrificing proprietary-information rights, if prior arrangements are made with RD and D contractors to provide responses to reasonable requests for base-case data. A total of three case studies were performed on BCS technologies: a gas-fired heat pump; a 1000 ton/day anaerobic digestion plant; and a district heating and cooling system. The three case studies plus the risk-analysis methodology were issued as separate reports. It is concluded that, based on the overall research of risk analysis and the case-study experience, that the risk-analysis methodology has significant potential as a policy-evaluation tool within BCS.

  20. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.

  1. Risk analysis of the Vidaa River System

    OpenAIRE

    Vinyals i Patón, Miquel

    2011-01-01

    The main goal of this hydraulic study is the asses of flooding in the Vidaa River system. In order to realize a complete assessment, the main water contributions to the river system have been included in the flood analysis. Three kind of software have been used: • Flooding simulation (MIKE11). • Stochastic weather generator (RainSim). • Extreme value analysis (EVA tool from MIKE11). Mike11 offers the possibility of based upon twenty years observed rainfall data (main head catch...

  2. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  3. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management-The inherency risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Current regulatory systems focus on the state of scientific evidence as the predominant factor for how to handle risks to human health and the environment. However, production and assessment of risk information are costly and time-consuming, and firms have an intrinsic disincentive to produce and distribute information about risks of their products as this could endanger their production opportunities and sales. An emphasis on more or better science may result in insufficient thought and attention going into the exploration of technology alternatives, and that risk management policies miss out on the possible achievement of a more favorable set of consequences. In this article, a method is proposed that combines risk assessment with the search for alternative technological options as a part of the risk management procedure. The method proposed is the inherency risk analysis where the first stage focuses on the original agent subject to investigation, the second stage focuses on identifying technological options whereas the third stage reviews the different alternatives, searching for the most attractive tradeoffs between costs and inherent safety. This is then used as a fundament for deciding which technology option to pursue. This method aims at providing a solution-focused, systematic technology-based approach for addressing and setting priorities for environmental problems. By combining risk assessment with a structured approach to identify superior technology options within a risk management system, the result could very well be a win-win situation for both company and the environment.

  4. Contract Negotiations Supported Through Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Sérgio A.; Vaz, Marco A.; Souza, Jano M.

    Many clients often view software as a commodity; then, it is critical that IT sellers know how to create value into their offering to differentiate their service from all the others. Clients sometimes refuse to contract software development due to lack of technical understanding or simply because they are afraid of IT contractual commitments. The IT negotiators who recognize the importance of this issue and the reason why it is a problem will be able to work to reach the commercial terms they want. Therefore, this chapter aims to stimulate IT professionals to improve their negotiation skills and presents a computational tool to support managers to get the best out of software negotiations through the identification of contract risks.

  5. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  6. Risk analysis enhancement via computer applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since the development of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) by the airline industry, there has been various alternative approaches to applying this methodology to the nuclear power industry. Some of the alternatives were developed in order to shift the focus of analyses on plant specific concerns but the greatest majority of alternatives were developed in attempt to reduce the effort required to conduct a RCM analysis on as large of scale as a nuclear power station. Computer applications have not only reduced the amount of analysis time but have also produced more consistent results, provided an effective working RCM analysis tool and made it possible to automate a Living Program. During the development of a RCM Program at South Carolina Electric and Gas' V.C. Summer Nuclear Station (VCSNS), computer applications were developed. 6 figs, 1 tab

  7. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.)

  8. Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

  9. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in quantitative pest risk assessments; practical rules for risk assessors

    OpenAIRE

    David Makowski

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative models have several advantages compared to qualitative methods for pest risk assessments (PRA). Quantitative models do not require the definition of categorical ratings and can be used to compute numerical probabilities of entry and establishment, and to quantify spread and impact. These models are powerful tools, but they include several sources of uncertainty that need to be taken into account by risk assessors and communicated to decision makers. Uncertainty analysis (UA) and ...

  10. Regional seismic risk analysis of peninsular India and structural seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earthquake is one of the natural hazards that can cause extensive damage to human lives and property. From the earthquake damage surveys conducted it has been noted that even the engineered structures suffer damage to varying degrees during earthquakes. Hence, one of the important issues of concern for design engineers and the decision-making authorities in public and private sector organizations is forecasting of seismic events in a seismically active region that can cause potential damage to the region/structures. Scientific and rational methods have to be applied to forecast the hazard potential and its effect. In this paper, an attempt has been made to present a general, rational method for seismic hazard estimation for a given region. Methodology of estimation of seismic hazard of two regions in peninsular India has been presented. A methodology has also been presented for carrying out structural risk analysis of reinforced concrete framed structures subjected to seismic excitation. The usefulness of the methodology is demonstrated by considering a two-day six-storey reinforced concrete frame subjected to different stochastic seismic excitations. (author)

  11. Geotechnical risk analysis by flat dilatometer (DMT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoroso, Sara; Monaco, Paola

    2015-04-01

    In the last decades we have assisted at a massive migration from laboratory testing to in situ testing, to the point that, today, in situ testing is often the major part of a geotechnical investigation. The State of the Art indicates that direct-push in situ tests, such as the Cone Penetration Test (CPT) and the Flat Dilatometer Test (DMT), are fast and convenient in situ tests for routine site investigation. In most cases the DMT estimated parameters, in particular the undrained shear strength su and the constrained modulus M, are used with the common design methods of Geotechnical Engineering for evaluating bearing capacity, settlements etc. The paper focuses on the prediction of settlements of shallow foundations, that is probably the No. 1 application of the DMT, especially in sands, where undisturbed samples cannot be retrieved, and on the risk associated with their design. A compilation of documented case histories that compare DMT-predicted vs observed settlements, was collected by Monaco et al. (2006), indicating that, in general, the constrained modulus M can be considered a reasonable "operative modulus" (relevant to foundations in "working conditions") for settlement predictions based on the traditional linear elastic approach. Indeed, the use of a site investigation method, such as DMT, that improve the accuracy of design parameters, reduces risk, and the design can then center on the site's true soil variability without parasitic test variability. In this respect, Failmezger et al. (1999, 2015) suggested to introduce Beta probability distribution, that provides a realistic and useful description of variability for geotechnical design problems. The paper estimates Beta probability distribution in research sites where DMT tests and observed settlements are available. References Failmezger, R.A., Rom, D., Ziegler, S.R. (1999). "SPT? A better approach of characterizing residual soils using other in-situ tests", Behavioral Characterics of Residual Soils, B

  12. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  13. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  14. A Subjective Risk Analysis Approach of Container Supply Chains

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zai-Li Yang; Jin Wang; Steve Bonsall; Jian-Bo Yang; Quan-Gen Fang

    2005-01-01

    After the 9/11 terrorism attacks, the lock-out of the American West Ports in 2002 and the breakout of SARS disease in 2003 have further focused mind of both the public and industrialists to take effective and timely measures for assessing and controlling the risks related to container supply chains (CSCs). However, due to the complexity of the risks in the chains, conventional quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods may not be capable of providing sufficient safety management information, as achieving such a functionality requires enabling the possibility of conducting risk analysis in view of the challenges and uncertainties posed by the unavailability and incompleteness of historical failure data. Combing the fuzzy set theory (FST) and an evidential reasoning (ER) approach, the paper presents a subjective method to deal with the vulnerability-based risks, which are more ubiquitous and uncertain than the traditional hazard-based ones in the chains.

  15. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  16. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process...... Monte Carlo simulation, being the technique behind the quantitative risk analysis of CBA-DK. The informed decision support is dealt with by a set of resulting accumulated descending graphs (ADG) which makes it possible for decision-makers to come to terms with their risk aversion given a specific...... transport projects, namely by moving from point estimates to interval results. The main focus of this Ph.D. study has been to develop a valid, flexible and functional decision support tool in which risk oriented aspects of project evaluation is implemented. Throughout the study six papers have been produced...

  17. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. PMID:21679738

  18. Risk analysis for power systems : overview and potential benefits

    OpenAIRE

    Hilber, Patrik; Wallnerström, Carl Johan; Rosenlind, Johanna; Setréus, Johan; Schönborg, Niclas

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a mapping and sample of recently developed risk assessment techniques that are available for the distribution system operator. Three estimates on the value of more detailed risk analysis are desccribed. I.e. component reliability importance indices can be used to divversify the maintenance efforts, gaining better expected system performance at no cost. Furthermore, components that are assumed to be relatively harmless (based on average values) are identified as critical fo...

  19. The threat nets approach to information system security risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mirembe, Drake

    2015-01-01

    The growing demand for healthcare services is motivating hospitals to strengthen outpatient case management using information systems in order to serve more patients using the available resources. Though the use of information systems in outpatient case management raises patient data security concerns, it was established that the current approaches to information systems risk analysis do not provide logical recipes for quantifying threat impact and determining the cost-effectiveness of risk m...

  20. The Analysis and Assessment of the Credit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Mirea Marioara; Aivaz Kamer Ainur

    2011-01-01

    The commercial banks main operation is the granting of credits that occupies the first place among the total investments. Any bank assumes risks to a certain extent when granting credits and certainly all the banks generally incur losses when some debtors fail to comply with their obligations. The level of the assumed risks, the losses can be minimized if the credit operations are organized and managed in a professional manner. The paper grasps the moment of the analysis process preceding the...

  1. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  2. Risk portofolio management under Zipf analysis based strategies

    CERN Document Server

    Bronlet, M A P

    2005-01-01

    A so called Zipf analysis portofolio management technique is introduced in order to comprehend the risk and returns. Two portofoios are built each from a well known financial index. The portofolio management is based on two approaches: one called the ''equally weighted portofolio'', the other the ''confidence parametrized portofolio''. A discussion of the (yearly) expected return, variance, Sharpe ratio and $\\beta$ follows. Optimization levels of high returns or low risks are found.

  3. Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

  4. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  5. SYNTHETIC ANALYSIS OF CREDIT RISK - PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LĂPĂDUSI MIHAELA LOREDANA

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty of the economic and social environment in which a company operates represents the essentialfeature from which are discharged all types of hazards. Protection against risks, mitigation of their effects that aremeasured by the losses generated are issues which led to the continuous improvement of the measure of prevention andmanagement of riskThe article puts in to highlight a number of aspects related to the prevention and management of credit risk, twokey actions on the conduct of the business of a firm, but in carrying out the activities. In the presentation of the articlewe focused on a synthetic analysis of the sources of information used in credit risk analysis based on information fromsources both within the company and outside of it.The importance of prevention and management of credit consists in being able to forecast the possibleproduction of the event of credit risk and of taking in time the necessary decisions in order to reduce this and someadverse consequences. The essence of credit risk can be expressed by the possibility of the quantification of likelihoodappearance of this risk with consequences which have a direct effect on the activity of banks or financial institutions.

  6. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases. PMID:24402720

  7. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Obstacle Limitation Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandaradura, Amila Silva

    Obstacle limitation surfaces (OLS) are the main safeguard against objects that can pose a hazard to aircraft operations at and around the airports. The standard dimensions of the most of these surfaces were estimated using the pilot's experience at the time when they were included in to the standard documents. As a result, some of these standards may have been overestimated while others may not provide an adequate level of safety. With airports moving to the Safety Management System (SMS) approach to design and operations safety, proper evaluation of the level of safety provided by OLS at specific sites becomes great importance to airport operators. There is no published evidence, however, for the estimation of the safety level provided by the existing OLS standards. Moreover, the rationale used by the ICAO to establish existing OLS standards is not readily available in the standard documents. Therefore this study attempts to collect actual flight path data using information provided by air traffic control radars and construct a methodology to assess the probability of aircraft deviating from their intended/protected path. The extension of the developed methodology can be used to estimate the OLS dimensions that provide an acceptable safety level for the aircraft operations. This will be helpful to estimate safe and efficient standard dimensions of the OLS and assess the risk level of objects to the aircraft operations around airports. In order to assess the existing standards and show the applications of the methodology, three case studies were conducted using aircraft data collected from Ottawa (CYOW), Calgary (CYYC) and Edmonton (CYEG) International Airports.

  8. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-12-01

    Mozambique's National STD/AIDS Control Program (NACP) estimates that, at present, about 8% of the population is infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The epidemic is expected to peak in 1997. By 2001, Mozambique is projected to have 1,650,000 HIV-positive adults 15-49 years of age, of whom 500,000 will have developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and 500,000 AIDS orphans. Incidence rates are highest in the country's central region, the transport corridors, and urban centers. The rapid spread of HIV has been facilitated by extreme poverty, the social upheaval and erosion of traditional norms created by years of political conflict and civil war, destruction of the primary health care infrastructure, growth of the commercial sex work trade, and labor migration to and from neighboring countries with high HIV prevalence. Moreover, about 10% of the adult population suffers from sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including genital ulcers. NACP, created in 1988, is attempting to curb the further spread of HIV through education aimed at changing high-risk behaviors and condom distribution to prevent STD transmission. Theater performances and radio/television programs are used to reach the large illiterate population. The integration of sex education and STD/AIDS information in the curricula of primary and secondary schools and universities has been approved by the Ministry of Education. Several private companies have been persuaded to distribute condoms to their employees. Finally, the confidentiality of HIV patients has been guaranteed. In 1993, the total AIDS budget was US $1.67 million, 50% of which was provided by the European Union. The European Commission seeks to develop a national strategy for managing STDs within the primary health care system. PMID:12320532

  9. The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

  10. Fire risk analysis in ITER tritium building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Events as fire have been considered in ITER documentation of low probability and a general approach has been defined to be developed later for the ITER Specific site. It was said that These hazards will be treated according to the industrial safety regulations and practices of the host country. In the framework of studies for the European ITER site in Cadarache, an assessment of fire hazard has been done in order to ensure compliance with French safety requirements. In this report a summary of existing laws is presented and an example of the deterministic approach to be followed for the Preliminary Safety Report is given on the analysis of Tritium building design. (authors)

  11. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  12. DMAICR in an ergonomic risks analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, E F; Lima, C R C

    2012-01-01

    The DMAICR problem-solving methodology is used throughout this paper to show you how to implement ergonomics recommendations. The DMAICR method consists of the following five six steps by which you can solve ergonomic design problems: The steps of the proposed method, adapting DMAICR, are the following: In the steep D, there is the definition of the project or the situation to be assessed and its guiding objectives, known as demand. In the step M, it relates to the work, tasks and organizational protocols and also includes the need of measuring. In the step A, all concepts are about the analysis itself. The step I is the moment of improving or incrementing. In the step C, control, prevention from prospective troublesome situation and implementation of management are the activities controlling the situation. R is Report. Some relevant technical and conceptual aspects for the comparison of these methodologies are illustrated in this paper. The steps of DMAICR were taken by a multifunctional team (multi-professional and multi-disciplinary) termed as focus group, composed by selected members of the company and supported by experts in ergonomics. PMID:22316949

  13. Empirical Analysis of Urban Residents’ Perceived Climatic Change Risks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peihui; DAI; Lingling; HUANG

    2014-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human survival and security,urban development is even more profound,and receives more and more attention. To explore the perceived status of urban residents for the risks of climate change and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,taking Wuhan for example,from the microscopic point of urban residents,we use factor analysis to classify the perceived risks and recognized risk reduction measures,use cluster analysis to divide the urban residents into five groups,and use variance analysis to explore differences in the choice of measures between different cluster groups. We draw the following conclusions: the risk of deterioration of the ecological environment,the risk of economic damage,the risk of damage to the mental health,the risk of damage to the physical health and the risk of damage to the political harmony are the main risks of climate change for urban residents; individuals and families to develop good habits,businesses and governments to strengthen energy conservation,schools and other agencies to carry on the propaganda and education,carrying out multi-agent environment improvement,learn from the West are their recognized risk reduction measures. Depending on the perceived risk,the urban residents are clustered into five groups: those who are concerned about the body and politics,those who are concerned about the mental health,those who are concerned about the economic development,those who are concerned about the ecological safety,and those who ignore the climatic change. For the roles of individual and the family,business and government in the environmental protection,different groups have unanimous views,while for other measures,different groups have different understanding. It is concluded that individuals and families to develop environmentally friendly habits,government to strengthen regulation,businesses to take environmental responsibility,schools to strengthen publicity and education,and exploring

  14. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  15. Risk Analysis on Uric Acid Resulting in Carotid Atherosclerosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    肖敏; 李河; 郭兰; 石美铃; 麦劲壮

    2004-01-01

    Objectives To explore the risk of uric acid (UA) resulting in carotid atherosclerosis. Methods With a cross sectional study, 643 subjects (aged 41-83 yrs, male 552 and female 91)were surveyed in 1999 in Guangdong Province, China.The main research variables were uric acid (UA), occurrence and the size of carotid artery plaque. Results There was no statistical significance between the UA means of plaque occurrence and no-occurrence groups (t=0.60, df=242, P=0.5495). It seemed UA was not a possible risk factor of carotid atherosclerosis (OR=1.060, P=-0.8448>0.05, n=244) based on the logistic regression analysis. Conclusions Our results are not consistent with serum UA being an independent risk factor for atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease (CHD). It is necessary to do more research to learn the risk degree of UA during the progress of atherosclerosis/CHD.

  16. Computer code for general analysis of radon risks (GARR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document presents a computer model for general analysis of radon risks that allow the user to specify a large number of possible models with a small number of simple commands. The model is written in a version of BASIC which conforms closely to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) definition for minimal BASIC and thus is readily modified for use on a wide variety of computers and, in particular, microcomputers. Model capabilities include generation of single-year life tables from 5-year abridged data, calculation of multiple-decrement life tables for lung cancer for the general population, smokers, and nonsmokers, and a cohort lung cancer risk calculation that allows specification of level and duration of radon exposure, the form of the risk model, and the specific population assumed at risk. 36 references, 8 figures, 7 tables

  17. Downside Risk analysis applied to Hedge Funds universe

    CERN Document Server

    Perello, J

    2006-01-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires a high precision risk evaluation and an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater (or lower) than investor's goal. We study several risk indicators using the Gaussian case as a benchmark and apply them to the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data.

  18. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  19. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  20. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  1. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  2. Regional hazard analysis for use in vulnerability and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maris, Fotis; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Potouridis, Simeon; Fuchs, Sven

    2014-05-01

    A method for supporting an operational regional risk and vulnerability analysis for hydrological hazards is suggested and applied in the Island of Cyprus. The method aggregates the output of a hydrological flow model forced by observed temperatures and precipitations, with observed discharge data. A scheme supported by observed discharge is applied for model calibration. A comparison of different calibration schemes indicated that the same model parameters can be used for the entire country. In addition, it was demonstrated that, for operational purposes, it is sufficient to rely on a few stations. Model parameters were adjusted to account for land use and thus for vulnerability of elements at risk by comparing observed and simulated flow patterns, using all components of the hydrological model. The results can be used for regional risk and vulnerability analysis in order to increase the resilience of the affected population.

  3. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  4. Meta analysis of risk factors for colorectal cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kun Chen; Jiong-Liang Qiu; Yang Zhang; Yu-Wan Zhao

    2003-01-01

    AIM: To study the risk factors for colorectal cancer in China.METHODS: A meta-analysis of the risk factors of colorectal cancer was conducted for 14 case-control studies, and reviewed 14 reports within 13 years which included 5034cases and 5205 controls. Dersimonian and Laird random effective models were used to process the results.RESULTS: Meta analysis of the 14 studies demonstrated that proper physical activites and dietary fibers were protective factors (pooled OR<0.8), while fecal mucohemorrhage,chronic diarrhea and polyposis were highly associated with colorectal cancer (all pooled OR>4). The stratified results showed that different OR values of some factors were due to geographic factors or different resourses.CONCLUSION: Risks of colorectal cancer are significantly associated with the histories of intestinal diseases or relative symptoms, high lipid diet, emotional trauma and family history of cancers. The suitable physical activities and dietary fibers are protective factors.

  5. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  6. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices; Analisis de riesgos en tratamientos de radiocirugia mediante matrices de riesgo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  7. Hanford safety analysis and risk assessment handbook (SARAH)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 1,2, and 3 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities. SARAH describes currently acceptable methodology for development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of technical safety requirements (TSR) based on 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management,'' Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements,'' and provides data to ensure consistency in approach

  8. The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

  9. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  10. Spent fuel performance assessment and research. Final report of a co-ordinated research project on Spent Fuel Performance Assessment and Research (SPAR) 1997-2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report provides an overview of technical issues related to spent fuel wet and dry storage and summarizes the objectives and major findings of research, carried out within the framework of the Coordinated Research Program. Included are the fuel integrity aspects, fuel degradation mechanisms in dry and wet storage, behaviour of storage facility components (metallic components, reinforced concrete). Also included are issues related to long-term storage and monitoring technologies and techniques. Country reports on research projects within the SPAR Coordinated Research Program is presented. A brief history is given on the history of the BEFAST and SPAR Coordinated Research Projects

  11. Geomorphological risk analysis in the Republic of Belarus

    OpenAIRE

    Romanenko, Vlad; Kurlovich, Dzmitry

    2014-01-01

    Romanenko V. GIS-Mapping and Assessment of Geomorphological Risk in Belarus / V. Romanenko, D. Kurlovich // The geomorphology of natural hazards: mapping, analysis and prevention. Abstract book. 17th Joint Geomorphological Meeting, Liege (Belgium). 1-3 July 2014. – Liege. – P. 116.

  12. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  13. Risk analysis of coastal flood defences: A Vietnam case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mai, C.V.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Vrijling, J.K.; Mai, T.C.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aims at risk analysis and the investigation of safety aspects of coastal flood defences in Vietnam. The sea dike system has been actually designed by a 20 to 25 years return period. From the current situation it seems that the dike system is not sufficient to withstand the actual sea boun

  14. Seismic risk analysis for General Electric Plutonium Facility, Pleasanton, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a seismic risk analysis that focuses on all possible sources of seismic activity, with the exception of the postulated Verona Fault. The best estimate curve indicates that the Vallecitos facility will experience 30% g with a return period of roughly 130 years and 60% g with a return period of roughly 700 years

  15. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

    2005-08-31

    Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference. PMID:15908107

  16. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  17. Medicine and ionizing radiation: help cards for risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following an inquiry in Ile de France on radiation protection, a scientific committee associating several institutions and different experts has elaborated cards for help to risk analysis. A first series of this cards is published in this issue documents for the labour physician and will be next on Internet. the other fields of medical use will be covered in the future. (N.C.)

  18. RASOR Project: Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk, from Hazard to Risk using EO data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Over recent decades, there has been a dramatic rise in disasters, and their impact on human populations. Escalation in complexities in our societies is making risks increasingly difficult to understand and changing the ways in which hazards interact with each other. The Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk (RASOR) project developed a multi-hazard risk analysis platform to support the full cycle of disaster management. RASOR provides up-to-date hazard information across floods and geohazards, up-to-date exposure data from known sources and newly-generated EO-based data, and characterised quantitatively their vulnerabilities. RASOR also adapts the newly-developed 12m resolution global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to risk management applications, using it as a base layer to develop specific disaster scenarios. RASOR overlays archived and near real-time very high resolution optical and radar satellite data, combined with in situ data for both global and local applications. A scenario-driven query system allows users to project situations into the future and model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event. Applications with regards to different case study sites are presented in order to illustrate the platform potential.

  19. The risk communication using the special website of the society of risk analysis for the Great East Japan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Society for Risk Analysis Japan built the special website that reply to the people who are concerning the risk related to the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. Although, there were many risk communication activities between the specialists of the risk research and citizens on the website, there are some significant problems for the risk communication using the website. This report summarizes the result of our activity. (author)

  20. Response Analysis of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Under Atmospheric Icing Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Etemaddar, Mahmoud; Hansen, Martin Otto Laver; Moan, Torgeir

    2014-01-01

    , normal and emergency rotor shutdown, extreme gusts, and survival conditions. Atmospheric icing is simulated by using the ice accretion simulation code LEWICE. A CFD method is used to estimate the blade aerodynamic degradation due to icing. The effects of icing on one, two, or three blades are compared......, as are the effects of atmospheric icing on land-based and offshore wind turbines....

  1. Experimental RAO’s analysis of a monolithic concrete spar structure for offshore floating wind turbines

    OpenAIRE

    Campos Hortigüela, Alexis; Molins i Borrell, Climent; Gironella Cobos, Xavier; Trubat Casal, Pau; Alarcón Fernández, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays the offshore wind energy market is clearly oriented to be extended around the world. Bottom fixed solutions for supporting offshore wind turbines are useful in shallow waters which are available in a limited extent unless a continental shelf exists. Considering the Oil & Gas background knowledge, move from bottom fixed solutions to floating solutions is not a technical challenge, but the cost of each structure in terms of industry profit is currently the main ...

  2. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis. In this respect there is a

  3. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  4. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  5. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  6. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  7. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  8. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chap-ter presents an overview of the various types of operation refer-ences: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, com-ponent characteristics etc., and their validity in different situa......-tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is...

  9. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  10. Security risk analysis in retail store, Case study: Company X

    OpenAIRE

    Nugrahany, Raihana

    2015-01-01

    This thesis was conducted to protect the valuable assets of the case study company. By using the risk analysis, it will improve their business resilience by being well organized to prevent the occurrence of the threats and taking appropriate measure as response to it and by applying corporate security it can help to manage the safety of business function and assets of the case company. The purpose of this study is to identify various type of external and internal risk in the case company...

  11. Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

  12. 49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may...

  13. Risk analysis of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies in animals: state-of-the-art

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; de Koeijer, Aline; Hagenaars, Thomas J.;

    2008-01-01

    ). Nevertheless, the decline in the BSE epidemic in the UK and most European countries demonstrates that management has been, for the most part, sucessful. Literature pertaining to the three inter-related facets of risk analysis: risk assessment, risk management and risk communication of TSE's of animal origin...... was reviewed and used to describe the state-of-the-art of risk analysis for TSEs.......The Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) crisis of the last two decades has shown that proper interaction of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is essential. Mathematical models and risk assessments have been used as a basis for BSE risk management options and much of the...

  14. Riskgov European Project. Comparative analysis of risk governance for radiological and chemical discharges of industrial installations. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of the RISKGOV Project is to analyse and identify quality criteria for the governance of industrial activities giving rise to risks to people and the environment from radioactive and chemical discharges during normal operations. For this purpose, RISKGOV aims at: 1) analysing and comparing the elements contributing to the quality of governance systems associated with environmental discharges from nuclear and chemical installations; 2) providing a series of criteria to assess the quality of the governance of risk activities. In total, 8 case studies were conducted, covering radioactive and chemical releases related to local and international contexts and referring to innovative risk governance processes in France, Sweden and the United Kingdom: - The role of local liaison committees with regard to the management of discharges of installations: - France: Local liaison committee of the Gravelines Nuclear Power Plant, - Sweden: Local liaison committees of the Barsebaeck Nuclear Power Plant and the Rohm and Hass Chemical installation, - The dialogue process during the preparation of re-authorisation of radioactive discharges: - France: COGEMA-La Hague facility, - United-Kingdom: Devonport Royal Dockyard, - The dialogue process in a regional context: - France: Management of air quality around the industrial site of Etang de Berre, - The dialogue process in an international context: - Implementation of the OSPAR Convention for chemical and radioactive releases, - The abandonment of the Brent Spar offshore platform. The analysis was performed by a multidisciplinary research team and based notably on interviews with key stakeholders directly involved in these innovative risk governance processes. The following dimensions were addressed: a) The guiding principles of the decision-making process; b) The role of expertise; c) The stakeholders involvement process; d) The factors integrated into the decision-framing and decision-taking processes; e) The

  15. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

  16. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börner, Susanne; Albino, Juan Carlos Torrico; Caraveo, Luz María Nieto; Tejeda, Ana Cristina Cubillas

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs) aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed. PMID:26017963

  17. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Börner

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed.

  18. [Risk analysis in radiation therapy: state of the art].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazeron, R; Aguini, N; Deutsch, É

    2013-01-01

    Five radiotherapy accidents, from which two serial, occurred in France from 2003 to 2007, led the authorities to establish a roadmap for securing radiotherapy. By analogy with industrial processes, a technical decision form the French Nuclear Safety Authority in 2008 requires radiotherapy professionals to conduct analyzes of risks to patients. The process of risk analysis had been tested in three pilot centers, before the occurrence of accidents, with the creation of cells feedback. The regulation now requires all radiotherapy services to have similar structures to collect precursor events, incidents and accidents, to perform analyzes following rigorous methods and to initiate corrective actions. At the same time, it is also required to conduct analyzes a priori, less intuitive, and usually require the help of a quality engineer, with the aim of reducing risk. The progressive implementation of these devices is part of an overall policy to improve the quality of radiotherapy. Since 2007, no radiotherapy accident was reported. PMID:23787020

  19. Financial risk analysis and prediction of Chinese power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A study of 57 Shanghai and Shenzhen power industry companies was presented. The study considered financial ratios between companies in order to determine risk factors for financial crises. Financial data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were used to investigate power company performance from 2006 to 2008. Data from the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) were also used. Results of the study indicated that the cash-to-current debt ratio, the return on equity (ROE), net asset growth ratio, and inventory turnover presented uncorrelated and significantly varying ratios for failed power companies. The study also showed that most power companies have a high proportion of liabilities, higher debt risk, low asset turnover ratios, and negative net working capital. Results of the analysis were used to design an early warning model that used logistic regression techniques to predict risk. 7 refs., 5 tabs.

  20. Risk Factors Analysis on Traumatic Brain Injury Prognosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-dong Qu; Resha Shrestha; Mao-de Wang

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the independent risk factors of traumatic brain injury (TBI) prognosis.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed in 885 hospitalized TEl patients from January 1,2003 to January 1, 2010 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Medical College of Xi' an Jiaotong University. Single-factor and logistic regression analysis were conducted to evaluate the association of different variables with TBI outcome.Results The single-factor analysis revealed significant association between several variables and TEl outcome, including age (P=0.044 for the age group 40-60, P<0.001 for the age group ≥60), complications (P<0.001), cerebrospinal fluid leakage (P<0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (P<0.001), pupillary light reflex (P<0.001), shock (P<0.001), associated extra-cranial lesions (P=0.01), subdural hematoma (P<0.001), cerebral contusion (P<0.001), diffuse axonal injury (P<0.001), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (P<0.001), suggesting the influence of those factors on the prognosis of TBI. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis identified age, GCS score, pupillary light reflex, subdural hematoma, and subarachnoid hemorrhage as independent risk factors of TEl prognosis.Conclusion Age, GCS score, papillary light reflex, subdural hematoma, and subarachnoid hemorrhage may be risk factors influencing the prognosis of TEl. Paying attention to those factors might improve the outcome of TBI in clinical treatment.

  1. Seismic risk analysis for the Westinghouse Electric facility, Cheswick, Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Westinghouse Electric plutonium fuel development facility at Cheswick, Pennsylvania. This report focuses on earthquakes. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases. Because of the aseismicity of the region around the site, an analysis different from the conventional closest approach in a tectonic province was adapted. Earthquakes as far from the site as 1,000 km were included, as were the possibility of earthquakes at the site. In addition, various uncertainties in the input were explicitly considered in the analysis. For example, allowance was made for both the uncertainty in predicting maximum possible earthquakes in the region and the effect of the dispersion of data about the best fit attenuation relation. The attenuation relationship is derived from two of the most recent, advanced studies relating earthquake intensity reports and acceleration. Results of the risk analysis, which include a Bayesian estimate of the uncertainties, are presented as return period accelerations. The best estimate curve indicates that the Westinghouse facility will experience 0.05 g every 220 years and 0.10 g every 1400 years. The accelerations are very insensitive to the details of the source region geometries or the historical earthquake statistics in each region and each of the source regions contributes almost equally to the cumulative risk at the site

  2. Risk analysis of critical infrastructures emphasizing electricity supply and interdependencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Failures in critical infrastructures can cause major damage to society. Wide-area interruptions (blackouts) in the electricity supply system have severe impacts on societal critical functions and other critical infrastructures, but there is no agreed-upon framework on how to analyze and predict the reliability of electricity supply. Thus, there is a need for an approach to cross-sector risk analyses, which facilitates risk analysis of outages in the electricity supply system and enables investigation of cascading failures and consequences in other infrastructures. This paper presents such an approach, which includes contingency analysis (power flow) and reliability analysis of power systems, as well as use of a cascade diagram for investigating interdependencies. A case study was carried out together with the Emergency Preparedness Group in the city of Oslo, Norway and the network company Hafslund Nett. The case study results highlight the need for cross-sector analyses by showing that the total estimated societal costs are substantially higher when cascading effects and consequences to other infrastructures are taken into account compared to only considering the costs of electricity interruptions as seen by the network company. The approach is a promising starting point for cross-sector risk analysis of electricity supply interruptions and consequences for dependent infrastructures.

  3. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  4. Comparison of methods for dependency determination between human failure events within human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease of subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan - Human Reliability Analysis (IJS-HRA) and Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance. (author)

  5. Plasma prolactin and breast cancer risk: a meta- analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Minghao; Wu, Xiujuan; Chai, Fan; Zhang, Yi; Jiang, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women, and its incidence is on a constant rise. Previous studies suggest that higher levels of plasma prolactin are associated with escalated risk of breast cancer, however, these results are contradictory and inconclusive. PubMed and Medline were used to search and identify published observational studies that assessed the relationship between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer. The pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a fixed-effects or random-effects model. A total of 7 studies were included in our analysis. For the highest versus lowest levels of plasma prolactin, the pooled RR (95% CI) of breast cancer were 1.16 (1.04, 1.29). In subgroup analyses, we found a positive association between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer among the patients who were postmenopausal, ER(+)/PR(+) or in situ and invasive carcinoma. However, this positive association was not detected in the premenopausal and ER(-)/PR(-) patients. In conclusion, the present study provides evidence supporting a significantly positive association between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer. PMID:27184120

  6. Environmental risk analysis for offshore oil and gas activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brude, Odd Willy; Aspholm, Ole O.; Rudberg, Anders [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities always have a risk for environmental impact due to potential accidental releases of oil and gas. The environmental risk can be calculated as a combination of the frequency of such accidents to occur and their environmental consequences in terms of environmental damage to habitats or populations. A method for conducting environmental risk analysis has been in use in Norwegian offshore waters for a decade, with a continuously refinement of methodology over the past years. This paper outlines the principles in the MIRA method and gives examples and discussions regarding use in different environmental compartments. The risk assessment starts with identification of oil spill scenarios with frequencies of potential release rates and spill durations. The next step is to model the oil drift for each accidental oil spill scenario. Drift and fate of oil is modeled probabilistic. Based on the oil spill scenarios and their probability of oil pollution, the potential environmental damage is quantified for each scenario. The endpoint of environmental damage is reduction of a population and the resulting recovery time (in years) for various species and habitats. Environmental risk levels are then evaluated against the operating companies' environmental acceptance criteria. (author)

  7. Working session 5: Operational aspects and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cizelj, L. [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Donoghue, J. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1997-02-01

    A general observation is that both operational aspects and risk analysis cannot be adequately discussed without information presented in other sessions. Some overlap of conclusions and recommendations is therefore to be expected. Further, it was assumed that recommendations concerning improvements in some related topics were generated by other sessions and are not repeated here. These include: (1) Knowledge on degradation mechanisms (initiation, progression, and failure). (2) Modeling of degradation (initiation, progression, and failure). (3) Capabilities of NDE methods. (4) Preventive maintenance and repair. One should note here, however, that all of these directly affect both operational and risk aspects of affected plants. A list of conclusions and recommendations is based on available presentations and discussions addressing risk and operational experience. The authors aimed at reaching as broad a consensus as possible. It should be noted here that there is no strict delineation between operational and safety aspects of degradation of steam generator tubes. This is caused by different risk perceptions in different countries/societies. The conclusions and recommendations were divided into four broad groups: human reliability; leakage monitoring; risk impact; and consequence assessment.

  8. Uncertainty analysis in the applications of nuclear probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this thesis is to propose an approach to model parameter and model uncertainties affecting the results of risk indicators used in the applications of nuclear Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA). After studying the limitations of the traditional probabilistic approach to represent uncertainty in PRA model, a new approach based on the Dempster-Shafer theory has been proposed. The uncertainty analysis process of the proposed approach consists in five main steps. The first step aims to model input parameter uncertainties by belief and plausibility functions according to the data PRA model. The second step involves the propagation of parameter uncertainties through the risk model to lay out the uncertainties associated with output risk indicators. The model uncertainty is then taken into account in the third step by considering possible alternative risk models. The fourth step is intended firstly to provide decision makers with information needed for decision making under uncertainty (parametric and model) and secondly to identify the input parameters that have significant uncertainty contributions on the result. The final step allows the process to be continued in loop by studying the updating of beliefs functions given new data. The proposed methodology was implemented on a real but simplified application of PRA model. (author)

  9. [Radiobiological analysis of cancerogenic risk values in radioepidemiological investigations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozhdestvenskiĭ, L M

    2008-01-01

    The aim of the present article consisted in critical analysis of the epidemiological approach to radiocancerogenic risk estimation in region of low level radiation (LLR). The estimation is making by means of mathematician models that ignore a principal difference in biological action of LLR and high level radiation (HLR). The main formal characteristic of LLR action is the presence of a plateau in beginning of a dose-effect curve of radiogenic risk. It may be argued by the following positions: repeating the plateau-phenomenon on various radiobiological effects, in different tests and bioobjects, first; a paradoxical trend of reciprocal ERR/Sv increasing regarding dose decreasing in region of plateau, second, and third, the increasing of the curvature in dose-effect curve beginning. The presence of a plateau is associated with the presence of a real radiogenic risk threshold. Besides, the analysis of processes influencing significantly the dynamics of initial radiation injury of biologically important macromolecules showed the preference in region of LLR those, decreasing/eliminating genome damages. There is follows from mentioned above a necessity to evaluate radiogenic risks in LLR region separately from HLR region. PMID:18825986

  10. The approach to risk analysis in three industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is the purpose of this paper to review how risk and safety analysis is performed in the three major industries of nuclear power, space flight, and chemical and petroleum processes. The underlying reason for such a review is the belief that efficiencies and safety enhancements may result from a greater exchange of risk assessment technology between these industries. The thrust of this discussion related to the engineered systems involved in the three industries. The industries are very different. The chemical industry epitomizes the highly competitive private sector and its bottom-line emphasis; the nuclear power industry is unique by the degree to which it is regulated; and the space industry is essentially a government business just beginning to have commercial implications. Institutional differences are extreme; however, from a societal needs, and their safety implications have a far reaching impact on public opinion and support. In reviewing the risk and safety analysis activities, particular attention is given to the use of such quantitative approaches as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as it has evolved in the nuclear power industry

  11. Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cagno, Enrico, E-mail: Enrico.Cagno@PoliMI.i [Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, Milan 20132 (Italy); De Ambroggi, Massimiliano; Grande, Ottavio; Trucco, Paolo [Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, Milan 20132 (Italy)

    2011-01-15

    The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

  12. Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

  13. Risk-oriented analysis for the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of the risk assessment consists of a comparative security evaluation for the SNR-300 and the PWR Biblis B. The failure analysis focusses on the reactor core; in addition, possible fission product release from the spent fuel pits is examined. By reliability analyses, the frequency of events leading to incidents is determined together with the probability of core destruction. In the accident analysis, the kind and frequency of failure of the activity barriers, i.e., primary system (reactorvessel) and inner and outer containment are investigated for the various incident sequences. The radionuclide release into the environment is classified into five different release categories. Besides internal failures, external causes (especially earthquakes and plane crashes) are considered under the aspect of their risk contribution. (RF)

  14. TRANSNET: Online transportation risk analysis for public use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The TRANSNET system of transportation risk and systems analysis models and associated data bases was developed to allow access by qualified users to information and technique developed under the sponsorship of the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Defense Programs. The TRANSNET system allows outside users to access the RADTRAN III transportation risk analysis model as well as associated logistics, cost and netowrk models, and data. TRANSNET contains the most recent versions of models developed under DOE sponsorship. Code modifications that have been made since the last published documentation are noted to the user on the TRANSNET screens. To permit a greater spectrum of users to have access to the models, considerable attention has been given to makign them user-friendly and to provide default data sets for typical problems. 5 refs

  15. Software requirements specification for the program analysis and control system risk management module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    TWR Program Analysis and Control System Risk Module is used to facilitate specific data processes surrounding the Risk Management program of the Tank Waste Retrieval environment. This document contains the Risk Management system requirements of the database system

  16. Manage Stakeholders approach for analysis and risk assessment in the implementation of innovative projects

    OpenAIRE

    СУХОНОС, Марія Костянтинівна; Угоднікова, Олена Ігорівна

    2012-01-01

    The problem of innovation project risk management, notably Manage Stakeholder's risks, is consider in this article. The methodology of analysis and assessment Manage Stakeholder's risks in innovation projects is suggest

  17. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sibel ÇELİK

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks since it underlines the critical factors in liquidity risk management.

  18. Analysis and management of ecological risks : interests of PRA.

    OpenAIRE

    Delmotte, Sebastien; Arrignon, Florent; Gonzalez, Maya

    2010-01-01

    National audience Increasing intensity of human activities and natural resources exploitation threaten Earth ecological stability and resource durability. The recent understanding of the stakes linked with biodiversity erosion, especially for the goods and services given back to the society, rises the need for tools able to tackle ecological risks analysis. Addressing such analyses leads to be able to apprehend the inherent complexity of the natural ecosystems functioning, the diversity of...

  19. Water Flow Forecasting and River Simulation for Flood Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Merkurjeva, G

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents the state-of-the-art in flood forecasting and simulation applied to a river flood analysis and risk prediction. Different water flow forecasting and river simulation models are analysed. An advanced river flood forecasting and modelling approach developed within the ongoing project INFROM is described. It provides an integrated procedure for river flow forecasting and simulation advanced by integration of different models for improving predictions of th...

  20. Flood modeling for risk evaluation: a MIKE FLOOD sensitivity analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Vanderkimpen, P.; Peeters, P

    2008-01-01

    The flood risk for a section of the Belgian coastal plain was evaluated by means of dynamically linked 1D (breach) and 2D (floodplain) hydraulic models. First, a one-at-a-time factor screening was performed to evaluate the relative importance of various model processes and parameters. Subsequently, a systematic sensitivity analysis was added to establish the contribution of the most influential factors (breach growth and surface roughness) to hydraulic modeling uncertainty. Finally, the uncer...

  1. Systemic risk in energy derivative markets: a graph theory analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Lautier, Delphine; Raynaud, Franck

    2012-01-01

    This article uses graph theory to provide novel evidence regarding market integration, a favorable condition for systemic risk to appear in. Relying on daily futures returns covering a 12-year period, we examine cross- and inter-market linkages, both within the commodity complex and between commodities and other financial assets. In such a high dimensional analysis, graph theory enables us to understand the dynamic behavior of our price system. We show that energy markets - as a whole - stand...

  2. EMI Risk Management with the Threat Scenario, Effect, and Criticality Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabath, F.

    EMI risk assessment is a process for identifying, analyzing, and developing mitigation strategies for risks caused by electromagnetic interferences (EMI). The EMI risk assessment incorporates risk analysis and risk management, i.e., it combines systematic processes for risk identification, and evaluation, and how to deal with these risks. This chapter introduces a novel methodology for EMI risk assessment at system level, the Threat Scenario, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (TSECA). The TSECA is based on the general principle of the well-established Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), which has been modified to include.

  3. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  4. Public perception versus results of scientific risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Using nuclear power as an example, it is shown without any controversial arguments that public perception can be completely out of touch with the results of scientific risk analysis. Evidence is presented which indicates that the direct responsibility for this is in the refusal of the media to transmit the relevant information, especially about probabilities, and the underlying responsibility is in the political agenda of environmental groups. My analysis of the reasons for this is presented. The history of the battle for public perception of nuclear power is recounted

  5. Aircraft hazard analysis at the Pantex Plant: Data analysis, risk assessment, and risk reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Operations at the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Pantex Plant include assembly and dismantlement of nuclear weapons, as well as surveillance and interim storage of special nuclear material. The possibility of an aircraft crash into the Pantex Plant outside Amarillo, Texas, is of particular concern to the Department of Energy. In response to public concerns about such occurrences and in an effort to reduce risks associated with overflights of Pantex, several changes to navigational aids at the Amarillo International Airport are being implemented. Additionally, a radar airspace monitor and recording system have been connected to the airport surveillance radar at Amarillo to record all aircraft operations at the airport and those of aircraft flying over. This digitizer/controller and computer combination is allowing a database to be compiled that contains the number of aircraft operations, the type of aircraft involved, and the flightpath of each aircraft operating in the vicinity of the Pantex Plant. This observed data has provided a means to gain an objective understanding of overflight risk at Pantex

  6. Dynamic event tree analysis as a risk management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work demonstrates the use of dynamic event tree (DET) methods in the development of optimal severe accident management strategies. The ADAPT (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees) software is a tool which can generate dynamic event trees (DETs) using a system model and a user-specified set of branching rules. DETs explicitly account for time in the system analysis and can more accurately model stochastic processes which can occur in a system compared to traditional event tree analysis. The kinds of information which can be extracted from a DET analysis (specifically, an ADAPT analysis) towards risk management and the advantages of such an approach are illustrated using a sodium fast reactor (SFR). The scenario studied is that of an aircraft crash which eliminates most reactor vessel auxiliary cooling system (RVACS) heat removal capability (three of four RVACS towers). Probability distributions on worker response time were developed and used as branching rules. In order to demonstrate the abilities of dynamic methodologies in the context of severe accident mitigation strategies, several recovery strategies are considered. Probability distributions of fuel temperature and tower recovery times are generated to determine which strategy resulted in the lowest overall risk. (authors)

  7. Global Human Settlement Analysis for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesaresi, M.; Ehrlich, D.; Ferri, S.; Florczyk, A.; Freire, S.; Haag, F.; Halkia, M.; Julea, A. M.; Kemper, T.; Soille, P.

    2015-04-01

    The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) is supported by the European Commission, Joint Research Center (JRC) in the frame of his institutional research activities. Scope of GHSL is developing, testing and applying the technologies and analysis methods integrated in the JRC Global Human Settlement analysis platform for applications in support to global disaster risk reduction initiatives (DRR) and regional analysis in the frame of the European Cohesion policy. GHSL analysis platform uses geo-spatial data, primarily remotely sensed and population. GHSL also cooperates with the Group on Earth Observation on SB-04-Global Urban Observation and Information, and various international partners andWorld Bank and United Nations agencies. Some preliminary results integrating global human settlement information extracted from Landsat data records of the last 40 years and population data are presented.

  8. Risk Analysis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhi-fang Jia; Meng Su; Miao He; Zhi-hua Yin; Wei Wu; Xue-lian Li; Peng Guan; Bao-sen Zhou

    2009-01-01

    Objective: It is known that chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a main risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). To assess the effect of HBV infection and its interaction with other factors on the risk for HCC, a hospital-based case-control study was carried out in Northeast China. Methods: A total of 384 cases with hepatocellular carcinoma and 432 controls without evidence of liver diseases were enrolled in the study. Blood samples were collected to detect the serum markers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) and questionnaires about lifestyle and family tumor history were performed in all subjects. Results: The total infection rate of HBV in hepatocellular carcinoma cases was 70.8% and 10.0% in non-liver disease controls. There was a statistically significant difference (P<0.0001) between cases and controls (OR= 22.0; 95%CI:15.0-32.3). Interaction analysis indicated that in HBV chronic carriers with HCV infection or alcohol consumption or family HCC history, the risk for HCC increased (OR=41.1, 95%CI: 20.2-83.9, OR=125.0, 95%CI: 66.5-235.2; OR=56.9, 95%CI: 27.2-119.3 respectively). In addition, hepatitis B history, HCV infection, hepatic cirrhosis and family history of HCC were also potential HCC independent risk factors. Conclusion: We confirmed that HBV is a chief risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma and accounts for 67.7% of all hepatocellular carcinoma in Northeast China. HCV infection, alcohol intake and family history could enhance the risk for HCC in chronic HBV carriers.

  9. Transitory storage plants for hazardous waste, mapping and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Defence Research Establishment has, at the request of the National Rescue Service Board, studied risks in connection with transitory storage plants of hazardous waste. The aim of this study has been to map out, describe and analyse risks to human beings and to the environment at, and in the neighbourhood of, transitory storage plants in Sweden and, too, make a preliminary judgement on the extent of the problem. Altogether, the study is based on information about 121 transitory storage plants for hazardous waste in 21 countries and 74 municipalities, information of a highly detailed nature as well as of a less detailed one. In order to be able to form an opinion of possible risks at transitory storage plants, the reader is offered an account of the various stages of analysis and synthesis as follows: 1) Description of transitory storage of hazardous waste as socio technical system. 2) Description of possible events. 3) Description of possible effects on human beings and on the environment. 4) Conclusion. As far as the extent of the problem is concerned, we believe that the risk of serious accidents at transitory storage plants of hazardous waste is statistically small. When compared to other risks present in the society, accidents at transitory storage plants might be considered to be a problem not worth mentioning, but still, the prerequisites are there and the effects on human beings and on the environment can be extensive in a worst case. Therefore, there is every reason to seek further knowledge for reasons of risk and security at transitory storage plants of hazardous waste. One subject to enter deeply into could be that of how various actors cooperate when it comes to security at transitory storage plants

  10. Analysis and evaluation of enterprise risk management capability elements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Research on enterprise risk management capability is conducted with a view of discerning and processing risks, in which an evaluation index system and an evaluation model of enterprise risk management capabilities are constructed. The risk management capability consists of four aspects, i.e. risk identification capability, risk assessment capability, risk planning capability and risk control capability. Risk identification and assessment capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on finding and analyzing...

  11. Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jörg; Veen, van, R.

    2008-01-01

    The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the virtues of three different methods: the quantifiable conventional approach to risk; the taxonomic analysis of perceived risk; and the analytical framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis. This ...

  12. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in quantitative pest risk assessments; practical rules for risk assessors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Makowski

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative models have several advantages compared to qualitative methods for pest risk assessments (PRA. Quantitative models do not require the definition of categorical ratings and can be used to compute numerical probabilities of entry and establishment, and to quantify spread and impact. These models are powerful tools, but they include several sources of uncertainty that need to be taken into account by risk assessors and communicated to decision makers. Uncertainty analysis (UA and sensitivity analysis (SA are useful for analyzing uncertainty in models used in PRA, and are becoming more popular. However, these techniques should be applied with caution because several factors may influence their results. In this paper, a brief overview of methods of UA and SA are given. As well, a series of practical rules are defined that can be followed by risk assessors to improve the reliability of UA and SA results. These rules are illustrated in a case study based on the infection model of Magarey et al. (2005 where the results of UA and SA are shown to be highly dependent on the assumptions made on the probability distribution of the model inputs.

  13. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to human... 7 Agriculture 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Director, Office of Risk Assessment and...

  14. A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

  15. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt [Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark). Systems Analysis Department

    2001-07-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis

  16. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sterlacchini

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

    A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

  17. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

    2007-11-01

    This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

  18. Risk analysis guideline for working with radiation; Leidraad risicoanalyse stralingstoepassingen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bader, S.

    2010-11-15

    The RIVM has developed a guideline for carrying out ionizing radiation risk analyses. Dutch law requires that radiation risk analyses be carried out, but the Dutch Labour Inspectorate has signalled that compliance is low, primarily because many health physicists lack the necessary knowledge. Noncompliance is a reason for concern, as the risk analysis provides the basis for a proper understanding of the risks of working with radiation. Worker safety is enhanced when the guideline is followed. Dutch law dictates that a risk analysis must be carried out before any individual starts working with radiation. Examples of activities falling under the auspices of this law are the detection of welding defects in gas pipes and the taking of X-rays by veterinarians. The guideline, which was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, is a roadmap in which the most important steps for performing a risk analysis are described. Those responsible for radiation worker safety are expected to modify and apply these guidelines to the specific working conditions of their respective professional groups. [Dutch] Het RIVM heeft een leidraad ontwikkeld waarmee een risicoanalyse kan worden uitgevoerd voor het werken met ioniserende straling. Aanleiding is een signaal van de Arbeidsinspectie dat deze risicoanalyses die bij wet verplicht zijn, te weinig worden opgesteld. Dat komt doordat stralingsdeskundigen vaak niet weten hoe ze zoiets aan moeten pakken. Dit is zorgelijk, omdat de risicoanalyse ten grondslag ligt aan een goed begrip van de risico's van het werken met straling. Gebruik van de leidraad draagt bij aan een betere veiligheid van werknemers. De Nederlandse wet verplicht ondernemers om voorafgaand aan een handeling met ioniserende straling een risicoanalyse uit te laten voeren. Enkele voorbeelden van dat soort handelingen zijn de controle van lasnaden in gasleidingen met gammabronnen en het maken van een rontgenfoto door een dierenarts. De leidraad

  19. Risk Propagation Analysis and Visualization using Percolation Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Konig

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a percolation-based approach for the analysis of risk propagation, using malware spreading as a showcase example. Conventional risk management is often driven by human (subjective assessment of how one risk influences the other, respectively, how security incidents can affect subsequent problems in interconnected (subsystems of an infrastructure. Using percolation theory, a well-established methodology in the fields of epidemiology and disease spreading, a simple simulation-based method is described to assess risk propagation system-atically. This simulation is formally analyzed using percolation theory, to obtain closed form criteria that help predicting a pandemic incident propagation (or a propagation with average-case bounded implications. The method is designed as a security decision support tool, e.g., to be used in security operation centers. For that matter, a flexible visualization technique is devised, which is naturally induced by the percolation model and the simulation algorithm that derives from it. The main output of the model is a graphical visualization of the infrastructure (physical or logical topology. This representation uses color codes to indicate the likelihood of problems to arise from a security incident that initially occurs at a given point in the system. Large likelihoods for problems thus indicate “hotspots”, where additional action should be taken.

  20. Flood Risk Analysis and Flood Potential Losses Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The heavy floods in the Taihu Basin showed increasing trend in recent years. In thiswork, a typical area in the northern Taihu Basin was selected for flood risk analysis and potentialflood losses assessment. Human activities have strong impact on the study area' s flood situation (asaffected by the polders built, deforestation, population increase, urbanization, etc. ), and havemade water level higher, flood duration shorter, and flood peaks sharper. Five years of differentflood return periods [(1970), 5 (1962), 10 (1987), 20 (1954), 50 (1991)] were used to cal-culate the potential flood risk area and its losses. The potential flood risk map, economic losses,and flood-impacted population were also calculated. The study's main conclusions are: 1 ) Humanactivities have strongly changed the natural flood situation in the study area, increasing runoff andflooding; 2) The flood risk area is closely related with the precipitation center; 3) Polder construc-tion has successfully protected land from flood, shortened the flood duration, and elevated waterlevel in rivers outside the polders; 4) Economic and social development have caused flood losses toincrease in recent years.

  1. Quantitative analysis of fall risk using TUG test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakaria, Nor Aini; Kuwae, Yutaka; Tamura, Toshiyo; Minato, Kotaro; Kanaya, Shigehiko

    2015-01-01

    We examined falling risk among elderly using a wearable inertial sensor, which combines accelerometer and gyrosensors devices, applied during the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test. Subjects were categorised into two groups as low fall risk and high fall risk with 13.5 s duration taken to complete the TUG test as the threshold between them. One sensor was attached at the subject's waist dorsally, while acceleration and gyrosensor signals in three directions were extracted during the test. The analysis was carried out in phases: sit-bend, bend-stand, walking, turning, stand-bend and bend-sit. Comparisons between the two groups showed that time parameters along with root mean square (RMS) value, amplitude and other parameters could reveal the activities in each phase. Classification using RMS value of angular velocity parameters for sit-stand phase, RMS value of acceleration for walking phase and amplitude of angular velocity signal for turning phase along with time parameters suggests that this is an improved method in evaluating fall risk, which promises benefits in terms of improvement of elderly quality of life. PMID:23964848

  2. Securitization of Receivables - An Analysis of the Inherent Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Roberto Ferreira Savoia

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Securitization is a modality of structured finance which allows a company to raise funds based on its receivables through capital markets. In Brazil, securitization was developed mostly in the form of mutual funds - the FIDC, which raise money by issuing senior cotes for qualified investors, and subordinated cotes, usually bought by the company that originated the receivables. This paper evaluates the risk and return for both kinds of investors through a stochastic model with two main variables: interest rates and default rates. The model is still sensible to the characteristics of the fund, like the amount of subordinated cotes, the type of asset being securitized; and the amount of receivables in relation to the assets. Regarding the case of senior cotes, the risk of returns under the basic level of interest rates is highly improbable; and in the case of subordinated cotes, the risk of returns under the basic interest rate may be considered still low, due to the high spreads observed in the Brazilian financial market. The simulations indicated that under historically mean interest rate volatility the default rates are the main component of the total risk. Accordingly to the developed analysis of international standards of regulation, the Brazilian Central Bank imposes very strong capital requirements to banks that securitize their assets and purchase the corresponding subordinated cotes.

  3. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. PMID:20731790

  4. Application of Risk Analysis in Business Investment Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Merková

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decision-makings should be regarded in each business entity as the crucial factor for its long-term prosperity. An acquired decision affects the performance of the company as well as its competitiveness in long time. If a competent investor has an interest to make a qualified investment decision, it means that he must primarily determine the time and risk factor. In the capital-intensive investment projects, attention must be paid to the risks that the preparation, realization and use of investment bring. The aim of this paper is to identify critical factors that affect the expected profit and cash flow in the implementation of investment projects by applying the most advanced models used to quantify the risks of investing. Research was conducted in a wood processing and furniture manufacturing company. The results given by cash flow indicatiors show that the investment project is feasible and effective. By changing some parameters, sensitivity analysis shows that the main risk factors for the project in question are the selling price, volume of production, material costs and labor costs.

  5. Risk analysis of the LHC underground area fire risk due to faulty electrical equipment

    CERN Document Server

    Harrison, A

    2007-01-01

    The European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland, is currently building the latest generation of particle accelerators, the LHC (Large Hadron Collider). The machine is housed in a circular tunnel of 27 km of circumference and is situated approximately 100 metres beneath the surface astride the Franco-Swiss border. Electrically induced fires in the LHC are a major concern, since an incident could present a threat to CERN personnel as well as the public. Moreover, the loss of equipment would result in significant costs and downtime. However, the amount of electrical equipment in the underground area required for operation, supervision and control of the machine is essential. Thus the present thesis is assessing the risk of fire due to faulty electrical equipment in both a qualitative as well as quantitative way. The recommendations following the qualitative analysis suggest the introduction of fire protection zones for the areas with the highest risk of fire due to a combination of p...

  6. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs

  7. Brucellosis in a high risk occupational group: sero prevalence and analysis of risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Objectives: To estimate Brucella sero positivity among slaughterhouse workers of Lahore district and to elucidate risk factors associated with sero positivity to Brucella. Method: During the year 2008, a cross-sectional study was conducted in four slaughterhouses of Lahore district. A sample of 360 workers was selected from these slaughterhouses through stratified random sampling on proportional basis. Workers were interviewed using a structured questionnaire to obtain risk factor information and their blood samples were collected to be screened for the presence of anti-Brucella IgG using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) technique. Data management and analysis were performed using SPSS (statistical package for social sciences) version 16. Risk factors associated with sero positivity to anti-Brucella IgG were identified by constructing a logistic regression model. Results: Of the 360 serum samples tested, 21.7% (95% CI 17.44% - 25.96%) were positive by ELISA test. The logistic regression model identified age (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99), assistance in parturition of animal (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.23-0.96), consuming raw milk (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.04-4.87) and handling sheep (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.09- 0.92) as risk factors for Brucella sero positivity among slaughterhouse workers of Lahore district. Conclusion: To reduce the burden of brucellosis, a national brucellosis control programme should be initiated with special emphasis on the high risk population of slaughterhouse workers. (author)

  8. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  9. Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michael M·derl; Wolfgang Rauch

    2011-01-01

    The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g.,by terrorist attacks,infrastructure deterioration or climate change.For the spatial risk assessment,vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process.Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios.Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario.Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past.The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system,but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure.The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.

  10. Recent Advances in Launch Vehicle Toxic Hazard and Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    A number of widely used rocket propellants produce toxic combustion byproducts or are themselves toxic in their un-reacted state. In this paper we focus on the methodology used to evaluate early flight catastrophic failures and nominal launch emissions that release large amounts of propellant or combustion products into the planetary boundary layer that pose a potential risk to launch area personnel, spectators, or the general public. The United States has traditionally used the Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion Model (REEDM) [1] to access the hazard zones associated with such releases. REEDM is a 1970's vintage Gaussian atmospheric dispersion model that is limited in its ability to accurately simulate certain aspects of the initial source geometry and dynamics of a vehicle breakup and propellant fragment dispersion. The Launch Area Toxic Risk Analysis 3-Dimensional (LATRA3D) [2] computer program has been developed that addresses many of REEDM's deficiencies. LATRA3D is a probabilistic risk analysis tool that simulates both nominal vehicle flight and in-flight failure emissions.

  11. Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle D. Sant´Anna

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%. In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector’s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.

  12. French experience in seismic risk analysis and associated research works

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This communication reviews the basic principles of the seismic risk analysis for nuclear installations in France practiced by the IPSN of the CEA. The presentation of each stage of the analysis includes an account of the methods used, the difficulties met, and a comparison with the recommendations of the AIEA-SG-S1. First, this paper deals with the sismotectonic analysis and with the definition of two reference earthquakes. Then, the calculation of the ground motion corresponding to the reference earthquakes is presented. A particular attention is paid to the problems of calculation of ground motion in the case of important earthquakes near active faults and to the effect of the soil on these movements. Finally, some criticisms, a description of studies undertaken at the moment and some recommendations are presented

  13. Benefit, risk, and optimization by ROC analysis in cancer radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of definitive cancer radiation therapy is cure or control. The attainment of that objective is not without risk of treatment-induced radiation injury. The optimum treatment is, therefore, that level of radiotherapeutic effect with the maximum probability of benefit and the minimum associated probability of injury. An objective of radiotherapy research is the formulation of a model of optimization that is independent of a consensus of what constitutes optimization. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is such a model, for it can relate probabilities of benefit and injury yielding a graphical determination of the optimum level of radiotherapeutic effect. ROC analysis is explained, an example taken from the contemporary radiotherapy literature is presented, and clinical research requirements for a general application of ROC analysis to the optimization of definitive cancer radiotherapy are developed

  14. Risk Analysis for the Radioactive Waste Management Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Method of PSA has been applied to nuclear reactor for power reactor or research reactor. As IAEA recommendation, PSA could be used on non-reactor nuclear facility. In this paper, PSA method has been applied for the radioactive waste management facility. Purpose of this method is to determine the risk that is combination of probability and consequence. In these cases, discharge of radioactive material and chemical substance and overexposure are as consequence. Analysis is carried out by two stages, firstly it determines initiating event and secondly, it makes accident sequence modeling. Analysis has been done for 5 group of initiating events. Initiating event frequency is adopted from facility condition and NUREG data. As component reliability data is used from data of IAEA-TECDOC-478 and NUREG. Result of analysis, probability of consequence is about 10-10 per year to 10-5 per year. The radioactive waste management facility is safe enough because probability of consequence is very small

  15. Modelling soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) in the immediate period after a grassland fire in Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Paulo; Cerda, Artemi; Misiūnė, Ieva

    2015-04-01

    The soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) is an index that measures the amount of sodium and potassium adsorbed onto clay and organic matter surfaces, in relation to calcium and magnesium. Assess the potential of soil dispersion or flocculation, a process which has implication in soil hydraulic properties and erosion (Sarah, 2004). Depending on severity and the type of ash produced, fire can changes in the immediate period the soil nutrient status (Bodi et al. 2014). Ash releases onto soil surface a large amount of cations, due the high pH. Previous works showed that SPAR from ash slurries is higher than solutions produced from litter (Pereira et al., 2014a). Normally the spatial distribution of topsoil nutrients in the immediate period after the fire is very heterogeneous, due to the different impacts of fire. Thus it is important to identify the most accurate interpolation method in order to identify with better precision the impacts of fire on soil properties. The objective of this work is to test several interpolation methods. The study area is located in near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Four days after the fire it was designed a plot in a burned area with near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Twenty five samples were collected from the topsoil. The SPAR index was calculated according to the formula: (Na++K+)/(Ca2++Mg2+)1/2 (Sarah, 2004). Data followed the normal distribution, thus no transformation was required previous to data modelling. Several well know interpolation models were tested, as Inverse Distance to a Weight (IDW) with the power of 1, 2, 3 and 4, Radial Basis Functions (RBF), Inverse Multiquadratic (IMT), Multilog (MTG), Multiquadratic (MTQ), Natural Cubic Spline (NCS) and Thin Plate Spline (TPS) and Local Polynomial (LP) with the power of 1 and 2 and Ordinary Kriging. The best interpolator was the one which had the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (Pereira et al., 2014b). The

  16. Romanian Economic Environment Entrepreneurial Activities Analysis and Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta VINTILĂ

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to approach risks at enterprise financial management by identifying potential risk sources and their attached risk factors, as well as identified risk quantification through statistical and mathematical instruments. Starting from the hypothesis that, in its essence, risk means variability, we propose measuring risk through elasticity coefficients, dispersion as well as trust intervals attached to financial indicators.

  17. LAVA (Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology): A conceptual framework for automated risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.; Phillips, J.R.; Tisinger, R.M.; Brown, D.C.; FitzGerald, P.D.

    1986-01-01

    At Los Alamos National Laboratory, we have developed an original methodology for performing risk analyses on subject systems characterized by a general set of asset categories, a general spectrum of threats, a definable system-specific set of safeguards protecting the assets from the threats, and a general set of outcomes resulting from threats exploiting weaknesses in the safeguards system. The Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology (LAVA) models complex systems having large amounts of ''soft'' information about both the system itself and occurrences related to the system. Its structure lends itself well to automation on a portable computer, making it possible to analyze numerous similar but geographically separated installations consistently and in as much depth as the subject system warrants. LAVA is based on hierarchical systems theory, event trees, fuzzy sets, natural-language processing, decision theory, and utility theory. LAVA's framework is a hierarchical set of fuzzy event trees that relate the results of several embedded (or sub-) analyses: a vulnerability assessment providing information about the presence and efficacy of system safeguards, a threat analysis providing information about static (background) and dynamic (changing) threat components coupled with an analysis of asset ''attractiveness'' to the dynamic threat, and a consequence analysis providing information about the outcome spectrum's severity measures and impact values. By using LAVA, we have modeled our widely used computer security application as well as LAVA/CS systems for physical protection, transborder data flow, contract awards, and property management. It is presently being applied for modeling risk management in embedded systems, survivability systems, and weapons systems security. LAVA is especially effective in modeling subject systems that include a large human component.

  18. Contextual risk factors for low birth weight: a multilevel analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbenga A Kayode

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (LBW remains to be a leading cause of neonatal death and a major contributor to infant and under-five mortality. Its prevalence has not declined in the last decade in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA and Asia. Some individual level factors have been identified as risk factors for LBW but knowledge is limited on contextual risk factors for LBW especially in SSA. METHODS: Contextual risk factors for LBW in Ghana were identified by performing multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis of 6,900 mothers dwelling in 412 communities that participated in the 2003 and 2008 Demographic and Health Surveys in Ghana. RESULTS: Contextual-level factors were significantly associated with LBW: Being a rural dweller increased the likelihood of having a LBW infant by 43% (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.01-2.01; P-value <0.05 while living in poverty-concentrated communities increased the risk of having a LBW infant twofold (OR 2.16; 95% CI 1.29-3.61; P-value <0.01. In neighbourhoods with a high coverage of safe water supply the odds of having a LBW infant reduced by 28% (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.57-0.96; P-value <0.05. CONCLUSION: This study showed contextual risk factors to have independent effects on the prevalence of LBW infants. Being a rural dweller, living in a community with a high concentration of poverty and a low coverage of safe water supply were found to increase the prevalence of LBW infants. Implementing appropriate community-based intervention programmes will likely reduce the occurrence of LBW infants.

  19. 76 FR 76215 - Privacy Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the Department of State proposes to create a system of records, Risk Analysis and Management.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Department of State proposes that the new system will be ``Risk Analysis...

  20. 76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... Part 171 Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records..., as amended (5 U.S.C. 552a). Certain portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State... system, Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, will support the vetting of...

  1. 75 FR 53273 - Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-31

    ... Risk Analysis Protocol AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and... availability of the draft revised Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol (Protocol... aquatic species that are the target of this risk analysis. Language used in the NANPCA...

  2. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a flight... risk analysis. (b) For licensed launches, the FAA will not approve the location of the proposed...

  3. An empirical analysis of controlled risk and investment performance using risk measures: a study of risk controlled environment

    OpenAIRE

    Haidar, Haidar

    2014-01-01

    In this thesis, I study the performance behaviour of hedge funds and mutual funds. I study a basket of various risk statistics that are widely used to measure the fluctuation of asset prices. Those risk statistics are used to rank the performance of the assets. The linear dependence relation of these risk measures in ranking assets is investigated and the set of risk measures is reduced by excluding risk measures that produce linearly dependent ranking vectors to other risk mea...

  4. A performance-based approach to landslide risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeo, R. W.

    2009-04-01

    An approach for the risk assessment based on a probabilistic analysis of the performance of structures threatened by landslides is shown and discussed. The risk is a possible loss due to the occurrence of a potentially damaging event. Analytically the risk is the probability convolution of hazard, which defines the frequency of occurrence of the event (i.e., the demand), and fragility that defines the capacity of the system to withstand the event given its characteristics (i.e., severity) and those of the exposed goods (vulnerability), that is: Risk=p(D>=d|S,V) The inequality sets a damage (or loss) threshold beyond which the system's performance is no longer met. Therefore a consistent approach to risk assessment should: 1) adopt a probabilistic model which takes into account all the uncertainties of the involved variables (capacity and demand), 2) follow a performance approach based on given loss or damage thresholds. The proposed method belongs to the category of the semi-empirical ones: the theoretical component is given by the probabilistic capacity-demand model; the empirical component is given by the observed statistical behaviour of structures damaged by landslides. Two landslide properties alone are required: the area-extent and the type (or kinematism). All other properties required to determine the severity of landslides (such as depth, speed and frequency) are derived via probabilistic methods. The severity (or intensity) of landslides, in terms of kinetic energy, is the demand of resistance; the resistance capacity is given by the cumulative distribution functions of the limit state performance (fragility functions) assessed via damage surveys and cards compilation. The investigated limit states are aesthetic (of nominal concern alone), functional (interruption of service) and structural (economic and social losses). The damage probability is the probabilistic convolution of hazard (the probability mass function of the frequency of occurrence of given

  5. ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES BANKRUPTCY RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulcsar Edina

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the fundamental role of small and medium enterprises in Romanian economy, this paper aims to quantify the level of their bankruptcy risk for 2009 and 2012 period, after debuting of financial crisis. The main reason of selecting this type of companies is that they represent the backbone of national economy. They have an indispensable role, because they offer jobs for great part of population and their contribution for GDP stimulation is considerable. In this paper it was applied two default risk models, namely the well known Altman’s Z-score model, based on five financial ratios and a bankruptcy predictor model developed by Teti et. al (2012 used firstly exclusively for Italian small and medium-sized enterprise for 2006-2009 period. The model proposed by Teti et. is based on the investigation of financially distressed and financially non-distressed Italian small and medium-sized enterprises during the financial crisis by using a discriminant analysis model. They conclude that there are four financial ratios, which characterized well the small and medium-sized enterprises bankruptcy risk. These variables are financial ratios, like: Debt/Total Assets, Return on Sales (ROS, EBIT/Interest Expenses and Working capital/EBIDTA. They consider that small and medium-sized enterprises require a particular approach in terms of bankruptcy risk analysis. In present study I try to compare the efficiency of traditional bankruptcy risk model with a small and medium-sized specific model. The necessary database for present analysis is ensured by simplified financial reports of 120 small and medium-sized enterprises registered in Bihor County. The selected enterprises are operating in manufacturing industry (21,67% and trading (78,33%. Present investigation has an important value in actual economic background, where the healthiness and sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises is a great issue. The results of study shows contradictory

  6. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  7. Probabilistic Approach to Risk Analysis of Chemical Spills at Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Magda Bogalecka; Krzysztof Kolowrocki

    2006-01-01

    Risk analysis of chemical spills at sea and their consequences for sea environment are discussed. Mutual interactions between the process of the sea accident initiating events, the process of the sea environment threats, and the process of the sea environment degradation are investigated. To describe these three particular processes, the separate semi-Markov models are built. Furthermore, these models are jointed into one general model of these processes interactions.Moreover, some comments on the method for statistical identification of the considered models are proposed.

  8. Risk Analysis of the applied RFID system : Project Stolpen

    OpenAIRE

    Grunzke, Richard

    2007-01-01

    This thesis will be a risk analysis of a RFID-system for a logistical application. The system works as follows: Around Karlstad in Sweden there are three new weighing machines for lorries. The load weight will be measured for the police to control overweight and for logistical reasons such as issuing invoices and optimising the supply chain. The lorries do not have to stop to be weighed. They have to drive slowly over the weighing machine, so the loss of time is minimal. The lorries will be i...

  9. Risk-analysis of the fuel cycle in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As part of the risk analysis of the nuclear power plant fuel cycle in the Netherlands, a risk analysis is given of nuclear power plants in casu of the already operating Borssele reactor, Dodewaard reactor and a 1000MWe PWR and BWR reactor during accident and normal conditions. For a 1000MWe PWR and BWR reactor, four possible locations are considered. In the first part of the report the influence of nuclear power plants on the environment during normal operations is considered. For each location, a summary is given of the population, the kind of industry, the meteorology, the condition of the soil and surface waters in the environment of the reactor site. After a summary of the most important safety systems for cooling the reactor core, the power supply of the power plant, the treatment and discharge of gaseous and solid waste is described as is the administration, security and monitoring thereof. The quality control and quality assurance of reactor components is described extensively. For safeguards, there are ways described to prevent the theft of fossile materials during the fuel cycle. Health physics and radiation monitoring of reactor operators and workers in the power plant are discussed and the report closes with a description and calculation using diffusion models, of the direct influence of radioactive waste on the environment especially on the human population, or the indirect influence of radioactive waste due to food consumption. The description of the influence of reactor accidents on the environment starts with a classification of the most important accidents that can occur. For each of these accidents, an event tree has been made and the probability of occurrence of these events is calculated. For each accident, the probability and the order of radioactivity release has been calculated. A description is given of the risk analysis calculation for each release category and each reactor location. After a summary of the different kinds of radioactive

  10. Winter risk estimations through infrared cameras an principal component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchetti, M.; Dumoulin, J.; Ibos, L.

    2012-04-01

    Thermal mapping has been implemented since the late eighties to measure road pavement temperature along with some other atmospheric parameters to establish a winter risk describing the susceptibility of road network to ice occurrence. Measurements are done using a vehicle circulating on the road network in various road weather conditions. When the dew point temperature drops below road surface temperature a risk of ice occurs and therefore a loss of grip risk for circulating vehicles. To avoid too much influence of the sun, and to see the thermal behavior of the pavement enhanced, thermal mapping is usually done before dawn during winter time. That is when the energy accumulated by the road during daytime is mainly dissipated (by radiation, by conduction and by convection) and before the road structure starts a new cycle. This analysis is mainly done when a new road network is built, or when some major pavement changes are made, or when modifications in the road surroundings took place that might affect the thermal heat balance. This helps road managers to install sensors to monitor road status on specific locations identified as dangerous, or simply to install specific road signs. Measurements are anyhow time-consuming. Indeed, a whole road network can hardly be analysed at once, and has to be partitioned in stretches that could be done in the open time window to avoid temperature artefacts due to a rising sun. The LRPC Nancy has been using a thermal mapping vehicle with now two infrared cameras. Road events were collected by the operator to help the analysis of the network thermal response. A conventional radiometer with appropriate performances was used as a reference. The objective of the work was to compare results from the radiometer and the cameras. All the atmospheric parameters measured by the different sensors such as air temperature and relative humidity were used as input parameters for the infrared camera when recording thermal images. Road thermal

  11. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  12. Basel II and default risk: An empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Luppi Barbara; Marzo Massimiliano; Scorcu Antonello

    2009-01-01

    The New Accord on Capital, known as Basel II, has induced a progressive harmonization of evaluation processes on credit risk merit in Italy. The present work analyzes the effect of Basel II on the basis of the definition of default that will come into effect at the end of the transition period. The analysis is based on a representative sample of a retail portfolio of one major Italian bank and distinguishes Northern, Central and Southern Italy. The findings highlight that under the new defini...

  13. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  14. RISK ANALYSIS IN HANDLING AND STORAGE OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guarascio Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Increase in productivity and technological system innovation have resulted a boost in the specific activity of use and handling petroleum Products the chemical and physical properties of petroleum products represent an advantage when they are used for its own uses, but may result in accidental scenarios which can cause serious damage to people and to environment. The quantitative risk analysis applied to gasoline storage plant is a tool to quantify the damage and to planning safety of exposed workers and people in surrounding area. Therefore this represents an effective means for emergency planning. Defined the vulnerability of the potential damage area through the characterization of known exposure levels, is possible to assess the individual risk indicators which depends on these exposure levels and the hazard scenarios evolution. The evaluations are used to verify that, for the emergency management purposes and safety design, it is partial to consider only the accidental events with high probability of occurrence but is exhaustive to use a quantitative probabilistic risk indicator (Expected Value of Damage. Through simulation of generated danger flow, consistent with the operating conditions of the plant, the compliance conditions in the early step of emergency management and the practical procedures for the implementation of the identified hazard scenarios have been laid down. These assessments check, as strategic goals, that the collection areas are not affected by the danger flow.

  15. Potential Improvements in Human Reliability Analysis for Fire Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The results of numerous fire risk assessments (FRA) and the experience gained from actual fire events have shown that fire can be a significant contributor to nuclear power plant (NPP) risk. However, on the basis of reviews of the FRAs performed for the Individual Plant External Events Examination (IPEEE) program in the U.S. and on recent research performed by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to support increased use of risk information in regulatory decision making [e.g., Ref. 1, 2], it has become clear that improved modelling and quantification of human performance during fire events requires a better treatment of the special environment and response context produced by fires. This paper describes fire-related factors that have been identified as potentially impacting human performance, discusses to what extent such factors were modelled in the IPEEE FRAs, discusses prioritization of the factors likely to be most important to a realistic assessment of plant safety, and discusses which factors are likely to need additional research and development in order to allow adequate modelling in the human reliability analysis (HRA) portions of FRAs. The determination of which factors need to be modelled and the improvement of HRA related approaches for modelling such factors are critical aspects of the NRC's plan to improve FRA methods, tools, and data and to update a number of existing FRAs. (authors)

  16. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  17. Risk analysis associated with petroleum hydrocarbons: is everything running smoothly?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petroleum products represent one of the main sources of environmental contamination, and these products are complex, composed of several hundred individual hydrocarbons. The evaluation of the risks associated with petroleum products is often limited by certain specific parameters such as benzene. The petroleum hydrocarbons running from C(10) to C(50) are not often integrated in an analysis of the toxological risks since the toxological characterization of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons is difficult to carry out. There exist in the United States two approaches that were developed recently that allow the integration of various hydrocarbons comprising a mixture. In this presentation, two of these approaches are described and compared. An overview of these approaches related to Canadian regulatory bodies is included, and a case study completes the account. The two approaches that are most well known in this area are: 1) that of the Massachusetts Dept. of Environmental Protection, and 2) that of the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group. The integration of petroleum hydrocarbons in a quantitative evaluation of their toxological risk is possible by present methods. This integration allows a reduction in the uncertainty associated with the use of an integrating parameter in the case of these petroleum hydrocarbons in the C(10) to the C(50) range

  18. Risk Perception Analysis Related To Existing Dams In Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solimene, Pellegrino

    2013-04-01

    earthfill dam is illustrated by defining the risk analysis during its construction and operation. A qualitative "Event Tree Analysis" makes clear with an example the probability of occurrence of the events triggered by an earthquake, and leads to a classification of the damage level. Finally, a System Dynamics (SD) approach is presented to investigate possibilities of a preventive planning in relationship to the risk, so that it's possible to establish shared procedures to achieve the correct management in any crisis phase. As a qualitative result of a SD application, figure 1 presents a flow-chart about a case study on the same dam so to illustrate the emergency planning in a step by step procedure according to the Regulations.

  19. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  20. RAVEN, a New Software for Dynamic Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cristian Rabiti; Andrea Alfonsi; Joshua Cogliati; Diego Mandelli; Robert Kinoshita

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN is a generic software driver to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis of code simulating complex systems. Initially developed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the RELAP-7 code [1] is currently being generalized with the addition of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These interfaces are used to extend RAVEN capabilities to any software as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or directly via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable to investigate the system response probing the input space using Monte Carlo, grid strategies, or Latin Hyper Cube schemes, but its strength is its focus toward system feature discovery like limit surfaces separating regions of the input space leading to system failure using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The paper will present an overview of the software capabilities and their implementation schemes followed by same application examples.

  1. Information Security Risk Analysis Methods and Research Trends: AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Method

    OpenAIRE

    Ming-Chang Lee

    2014-01-01

    Information security risk analysis becomes an increasingly essential component of organization’s operations. Traditional Information security risk analysis is quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. Quantitative and qualitative analysis methods have some advantages for information risk analysis. However, hierarchy process has been widely used in security assessment. A future research direction may be development and application of soft computing such as rough sets, grey set...

  2. PERCEPTIONS OF RISKS AND RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES; AN ANALYSIS OF DUTCH LIVESTOCK FARMERS

    OpenAIRE

    Meuwissen, Miranda P.M.; Huirne, Ruud B.M.; Hardaker, J. Brian

    1999-01-01

    The risk environment of farmers is changing and new risk management strategies are being introduced. Beal (1996) stated that risk management strategies adopted by farmers will be in accordance with their personal preferences for risk. In this context it would be useful for developers and sellers of new risk management strategies to have insight into farmers' preferences for risk. This paper studies to what extent such preferences are farmer-specific or whether general relationships exist. By ...

  3. Analysis of trends in aviation maintenance risk: An empirical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safety is paramount in the airline industry. A significant amount of effort has been devoted to reducing mechanical failures and pilot errors. Recently, more attention has been devoted to the contribution of maintenance to accidents and incidents. This study investigates and quantifies the contribution of maintenance, both in terms of frequency and severity, to passenger airline risk by analyzing three different sources of data from 1999 to 2008: 769 NTSB accident reports, 3242 FAA incident reports, and 7478 FAA records of fines and other legal actions taken against airlines and associated organizations. We analyze several safety related metrics and develop an aviation maintenance risk scorecard that collects these metrics to synthesize a comprehensive track record of maintenance contribution to airline accidents and incidents. We found for example that maintenance-related accidents are approximately 6.5 times more likely to be fatal than accidents in general, and that when fatalities do occur, maintenance accidents result in approximately 3.6 times more fatalities on average. Our analysis of accident trends indicates that this contribution to accident risk has remained fairly constant over the past decade. Our analysis of incidents and FAA fines and legal actions also revealed similar trends. We found that at least 10% of incidents involving mechanical failures such as ruptured hydraulic lines can be attributed to maintenance, suggesting that there may be issues surrounding both the design of and compliance with maintenance plans. Similarly 36% of FAA fines and legal actions involve inadequate maintenance, with recent years showing a decline to about 20%, which may be a reflection of improved maintenance practices. Our results can aid industry and government in focusing resources to continue improving aviation safety.

  4. Fire risk analysis: a discussion on uncertainties and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A fire risk analysis, using probabilistic methods, attempts to model fire scenarios that can be described in terms of the following elements: ignition of fire, growth of the fire, detection and suppression processes, impact on cables and other equipment, and response of the automatic safety and control systems and plant operators. The level of uncertainties and limitations of the analysis varies among these elements. Although the potential failure modes of cables and electrical circuits have been debated for a long time, there are some uncertainties in our understanding of the failure modes of equipment under fire conditions. Smoke propagation and smoke damage have generally been omitted from fire risk studies. Shorts within electronic circuit boards caused by soot deposits are not modeled, such failures can have an impact on the information provided to the control room operator. The operators' response to the changes on the control board is certainly a complex issue. The behavior of control room operators when there is a fire in the control room is also the subject of much debate. Of specific concern is the proper transfer of the controls to the remote shutdown panel. Another area of much debate centers around the control of combustibles. Several studies have taken credit for the house-keeping procedures to screen potential fire scenarios in areas of a plant that contain a large collection of cables (e.g., a cable tunnel or cable shaft). In such cases, clearly the debate is over the likelihood of a fire that can cause damage. None of the fire risk analyses familiar to the authors have properly modeled the simultaneous effect of a fire on multi-units. (author)

  5. Analysis of risk factors of pulmonary embolism in diabetic patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Objective: To study the related risk factors in diabetic patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Methods: 58 diabetic cases underwent lower limbs 99mTc-MAA veins imaging (and/or ultrasonography) and pulmonary perfusion imaging. The related laboratory data [fasting blood glucose (FBG), blood cholesterol, blood long chain triglycerides (LCT)] and clinic information [age, disease courses, chest symptoms (chest pain and short of breathe), lower limbs symptoms (swelling, varicose veins and diabetic foot) and acute complication (diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperosmolar non ketotic diabetic coma)] were collected simultaneously. SPSS was used for χ2-test and Logistic regression analysis. Results: (1) 28 patients (48.3%) were showed to be with lower limbs deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and by 99mTc-MAA imaging, 10 cases (17.2%) with PE. The PE ratios (32.1%) of the patients with DVT was more higher than no DVT (3.3%) (χ2 =6.53, P2≥4.23, P2≤2.76, P>0.05), respectively. (3) Multiplicity analysis indicated: the related risk factors for PE included chest symptoms (Score=13.316, P=0.000) and lower limbs symptoms (Score=7.780, P=0.005). No significant difference to other factors (Score≤2.494, P>0.114), respectively. Conclusion: The serious DM with chest symptoms, lower limbs symptoms and/or DVT must be controlled as early as possible by all kinds of treatment. It will decrease the PE complication. (authors)

  6. Geographic resolution issues in RAM transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Over the years that radioactive material (RAM) transportation risk estimates have been calculated using the RADTRAN code, demand for improved geographic resolution of route characteristics, especially density of population neighboring route segments, has led to code improvements that provide more specific route definition. With the advent of geographic information systems (GISs), the achievable resolution of route characteristics is theoretically very high. The authors have compiled population-density data in 1-kilometer increments for routes extending over hundreds of kilometers without impractical expenditures of time. Achievable resolution of analysis is limited, however, by the resolution of available data. U.S. Census data typically have 1-km or better resolution within densely-populated portions of metropolitan areas but census blocks are much larger in rural areas. Geographic resolution of accident-rate data, especially for heavy/combination trucks, are typically tabulated on a statewide basis. These practical realities cause one to ask what level(s) of resolution may be necessary for meaningful risk analysis of transportation actions on a state or interstate scale

  7. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS IN 3901 PATIENTS WITH STROKE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin-Feng Liu; Guy van Melle; Julien Bogousslavsky

    2005-01-01

    Objective To estimate the frequency of various risk factors for overall stroke and to identify risk factors for cerebral infarction (CI) versus intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in a large hospital-based stroke registry.Methods Data from a total of 3901 patients, consisting of 3525 patients with CI and 376 patients with ICH were prospectively coded and entered into a computerized data bank.Results Hypertension and smoking were the most prominent factors affecting overall stroke followed by mild internal carotid artery stenosis (< 50%), hypercholesterolemia, transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), diabetes mellitus, and cardiac ischemia. Univariate analysis showed that factors in male significantly associated with CI versus ICH were old age, a family history of stroke, and intermittent claudication; whereas in female the factors were oral contraception and migraine. By multivariate analysis, in all patients, the factors significantly associated with CI as opposed to ICH were smoking, hypercholesterolemia, migraine, TIAs, atrial fibrillation, structural heart disease, and arterial disease. Hypertension was the only significant factor related with ICH versus CI.Conclusions The factors for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke are not exactly the same. Cardiac and arterial disease are the most powerful factors associated with CI rather than ICH.

  8. Malaria in central Vietnam: analysis of risk factors by multivariate analysis and classification tree models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung Cong

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Central Vietnam, forest malaria remains difficult to control due to the complex interactions between human, vector and environmental factors. Methods Prior to a community-based intervention to assess the efficacy of long-lasting insecticidal hammocks, a complete census (18,646 individuals and a baseline cross-sectional survey for determining malaria prevalence and related risk factors were carried out. Multivariate analysis using survey logistic regression was combined to a classification tree model (CART to better define the relative importance and inter-relations between the different risk factors. Results The study population was mostly from the Ra-glai ethnic group (88%, with both low education and socio-economic status and engaged mainly in forest activities (58%. The multivariate analysis confirmed forest activity, bed net use, ethnicity, age and education as risk factors for malaria infections, but could not handle multiple interactions. The CART analysis showed that the most important risk factor for malaria was the wealth category, the wealthiest group being much less infected (8.9% than the lower and medium wealth category (16.6%. In the former, forest activity and bed net use were the most determinant risk factors for malaria, while in the lower and medium wealth category, insecticide treated nets were most important, although the latter were less protective among Ra-glai people. Conclusion The combination of CART and multivariate analysis constitute a novel analytical approach, providing an accurate and dynamic picture of the main risk factors for malaria infection. Results show that the control of forest malaria remains an extremely complex task that has to address poverty-related risk factors such as education, ethnicity and housing conditions.

  9. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  10. Methodology of nanotechnogy's risks analysis for health and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk assessment is a multidisciplinary field, and an important tool for understanding and managing the potential risks from nanotechnologies. As new technologies develop, a crucial task is to understand the health and environmental impacts and to identify potential risks. (authors)

  11. Logistic regression analysis on the risk factors of radiation pneumonitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Objective: To identify the risk factors of radiation pneumonitis (RP). Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 101 patients with radiation pneumonitis using SPSS 8.0 software. Factors evaluated included: gender, age, pathology, clinical stage, irradiation dose, irradiation field size, history of smoking, cardiovascular disease, bronchitis, surgery, chemotherapy, lung infection, atelectasis, obstructive infection and pleural effusion. Univariate analysis was performed using Chi-Square test and multivariate analysis was performed using Logistic regression model. Results: Univariate analysis revealed a significant relationship between 10 factors: pulmonary infection, atelectasis, obstructive infection, cardiovascular disease, bronchitis, chemotherapy, irradiation dose, number of days of radiation and irradiation field size were factors leading to radiation pneumonitis. Multivariate analysis showed that 9 factors: pulmonary infection, obs tractive infection, atelectasis, pleural effusion, bronchitis, cardiovascular disease, chemotherapy, irradiation dose, and irradiation field size were independent factors. Conclusion: Comprehensive consideration of the accompanying disease, chemotherapy, dose, field size, etc during the planning of radiotherapy is able to minimize the possibility of developing radiation pneumonitis

  12. Establishment of a Risk Assessment Framework for Analysis of the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jing; WANG Jing-fei; WU Chun-yan; YANG Yan-tao; JI Zeng-tao; WANG Hong-bin

    2007-01-01

    To evaluate the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in mainland China, a risk assessment framework was built.Risk factors were determined by analyzing the epidemic data using the brainstorming method; the analytic hierarchy process was designed to weigh risk factors, and the integrated multicriteria analysis was used to evaluate the final result.The completed framework included the risk factor system, data standards for risk factors, weights of risk factors, and integrated assessment methods. This risk assessment framework can be used to quantitatively analyze the outbreak and spread of HPAI in mainland China.

  13. The Shank3 Interaction Partner ProSAPiP1 Regulates Postsynaptic SPAR Levels and the Maturation of Dendritic Spines in Hippocampal Neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reim, Dominik; Weis, Tobias M.; Halbedl, Sonja; Delling, Jan Philipp; Grabrucker, Andreas M.; Boeckers, Tobias M.; Schmeisser, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    The postsynaptic density or PSD is a submembranous compartment containing a wide array of proteins that contribute to both morphology and function of excitatory glutamatergic synapses. In this study, we have analyzed functional aspects of the Fezzin ProSAP-interacting protein 1 (ProSAPiP1), an interaction partner of the well-known PSD proteins Shank3 and SPAR. Using lentiviral-mediated overexpression and knockdown of ProSAPiP1, we found that this protein is dispensable for the formation of both pre- and postsynaptic specializations per se. We further show that ProSAPiP1 regulates SPAR levels at the PSD and the maturation of dendritic spines. In line with previous findings on the ProSAPiP1 homolog PSD-Zip70, we conclude that Fezzins essentially contribute to the maturation of excitatory spine synapses. PMID:27252646

  14. Risk factors for progressive ischemic stroke A retrospective analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Progressive ischemic stroke has higher fatality rate and disability rate than common cerebral infarction, thus it is very significant to investigate the early predicting factors related to the occurrence of progressive ischemic stroke, thc potential pathological mechanism and the risk factors of early intervention for preventing the occurrence of progressive ischemic stroke and ameliorating its outcome.OBJECTIVE: To analyze the possible related risk factors in patients with progressive ishcemic stroke, so as to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of progressive ishcemic stroke.DESIGN: A retrospective analysis.SETTING: Department of Neurology, General Hospital of Beijing Coal Mining Group.PARTICIPANTS: Totally 280 patients with progressive ischemic stroke were selected from the Department of Neurology, General Hospital of Beijing Coal Mining Group from March 2002 to June 2006, including 192 males and 88 females, with a mean age of (62±7) years old. They were all accorded with the diagnostic standards for cerebral infarction set by the Fourth National Academic Meeting for Cerebrovascular Disease in 1995, and confired by CT or MRI, admitted within 24 hours after attack, and the neurological defect progressed gradually or aggravated in gradients within 72 hours after attack, and the aggravation of neurological defect was defined as the neurological deficit score decreased by more than 2 points. Meanwhile,200 inpatients with non-progressive ischemic stroke (135 males and 65 females) were selected as the control group.METHODS: After admission, a univariate analysis of variance was conducted using the factors of blood pressure, history of diabetes mellitus, fever, leukocytosis, levels of blood lipids, fibrinogen, blood glucose and plasma homocysteine, cerebral arterial stenosis, and CT symptoms of early infarction, and the significant factors were involved in the multivariate non-conditional Logistic regression analysis.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

  15. Collaborative Strategies for Sustainable EU Flood Risk Management: FOSS and Geospatial Tools—Challenges and Opportunities for Operative Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Raffaele Albano; Leonardo Mancusi; Aurelia Sole; Jan Adamowski

    2015-01-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to mitigate the impact of natural hazards on European economies and societies, improved risk assessment, and management needs to be pursued. With the recent transition to a more risk-bas...

  16. Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Huysmans, Marijke; Madarasz, Tamas; Dassargues, Alain

    2006-01-01

    This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availabili...

  17. A Categorical Data Analysis on Risks in Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Uematsu, Hiroki; Mishra, Ashok K.

    2011-01-01

    This study compares farm operators’ risk perceptions and actual realization of risk attitudes revealed through off-farm labor, enterprise diversification, and use of contracts, crop insurance, and other types of insurance, using data from 2001 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Results from ordered logit model and multivariate probit models unexpectedly found that risk loving farmers are more likely to employ risk management strategies.

  18. Game Analysis of Internal Control and Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhong Pang

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Based on examining links and differences between internal control and risk management from their definition,this paper mainly analyzes their relation with game theory. A complete information static game model isestablished and payoff functions for managers and investors are designed. The result shows that the decrease ofbusiness risk cannot be realized by severe penalties, instead, the frequency of internal control in risk monitoringmust be taken into consideration, and otherwise it will stimulate enterprise risk monitoring paradox. It is aneffective way for enterprises to reduce risk by lowering the cost of internal control in risk monitoring andimproving the ability of risk prevention.

  19. Investigation and risk factor analysis of hyperuricemia in pilots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-yu MA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective  To investigate the incidence of hyperuricemia in military pilots and the relationship between hyperuricemia and other related risk factors of cardiovascular diseases. Methods  A total of 2563 pilots, who had undergone a regular physical examination in the Air Force General Hospital from 2005 to 2010, participated in the current study. The participants were divided into high serum uric acid (UA group (hyperuricemia group, UA >420µmol/L, n=294 and normal UA group (n=2269. The incidence rates of hypertension, hyperglycemia, and hyperlipemia were compared between these two groups. The dependent variable was serum UA level of the pilots. Other indices included the total cholesterol (CHO, triglycerides (TG, high density lipoprotein (HDL, low density lipoprotein (LDL, fasting blood glucose (FBG, systolic blood pressure (SBP, diastolic blood pressure (DBP, smoking, body weight, and flight time as independent variable. Logistic multivariate regression analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between UA level and these indexes. Results  The incidence rates of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, low HDL, and high LDL were significantly higher in hyperuricemia group than in normal UA group (POR=1.637, POR=1.025, POR=1.046, PConclusion  The serum UA of pilots is closely related to the risk factors of other cardiovascular diseases.

  20. A flexible count data regression model for risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guikema, Seth D; Coffelt, Jeremy P; Goffelt, Jeremy P

    2008-02-01

    In many cases, risk and reliability analyses involve estimating the probabilities of discrete events such as hardware failures and occurrences of disease or death. There is often additional information in the form of explanatory variables that can be used to help estimate the likelihood of different numbers of events in the future through the use of an appropriate regression model, such as a generalized linear model. However, existing generalized linear models (GLM) are limited in their ability to handle the types of variance structures often encountered in using count data in risk and reliability analysis. In particular, standard models cannot handle both underdispersed data (variance less than the mean) and overdispersed data (variance greater than the mean) in a single coherent modeling framework. This article presents a new GLM based on a reformulation of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COM) distribution that is useful for both underdispersed and overdispersed count data and demonstrates this model by applying it to the assessment of electric power system reliability. The results show that the proposed COM GLM can provide as good of fits to data as the commonly used existing models for overdispered data sets while outperforming these commonly used models for underdispersed data sets. PMID:18304118

  1. Analysis of Risk Optimization on the Industrial Area Around

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Indonesia as an industrial country, there are large industrial area whichis directly or indirectly have an effect to human health by routine dischargeof waste from industrial installations. So, the criteria limit must bedetermined to regulate industrial area. The PRA method (Probabilistic RiskAssessment) is used in the nuclear technology especially reactor safetytechnology could be applied to accommodate those problems. The principles ofPRA method is to determine probability and consequences for accident ofindustrial plant or transportation of product. The analysis procedureincludes classification of industry activity type and inventories, estimationof external consequences, estimation of probability for installation andtransportation accident, determination of social risk and prioritization ofrisks. Calculation of consequence is based on the lost of life which isaffected by fire, toxic and explosive. The calculation for one industrialarea simple model as case study was done. From the calculation result, theconsequences value of 0 - 25 persons/event; 26 - 50 persons/event; 51 - 75persons/event, 625 - 650 persons/event and the event probability value of1.10-2 to 3.10-8 are obtained. The optimization value of industrial areaaround can be determined by using combination of probability value andconsequences value. (author)

  2. Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

  3. Risk of Hypothyroidism following Hemithyroidectomy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prognostic Studies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verloop, H.; Louwerens, M.; Schoones, J.W.; Kievit, J.; Smit, J.W.A.; Dekkers, O.M.

    2012-01-01

    Context: The reported risk of hypothyroidism after hemithyroidectomy shows considerable heterogeneity in literature. Objective: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine the overall risk of hypothyroidism, both clinical and subclinical, after hemithyroidectomy. Furthermore

  4. Risk analysis of sustainable urban drainage and irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ursino, Nadia

    2015-09-01

    Urbanization, by creating extended impervious areas, to the detriment of vegetated ones, may have an undesirable influence on the water and energy balances of urban environments. The storage and infiltration capacity of the drainage system lessens the negative influence of urbanization, and vegetated areas help to re-establish pre-development environmental conditions. Resource limitation, climate, leading to increasing water scarcity, demographic and socio-institutional shifts promote more integrated water management. Storm-water harvesting for landscape irrigation mitigates possible water restrictions for the urban population in drought scenarios. A new probabilistic model for sustainable rainfall drainage, storage and re-use systems was implemented in this study. Risk analysis of multipurpose storage capacities was generalized by the use of only a few dimensionless parameters and applied to a case study in a Mediterranean-type climate, although the applicability of the model is not restricted to any particular climatic type.

  5. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study, rail and highway routes which may be used for shipments of high-level nuclear waste to a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada are characterized. This characterization facilitates three types of impact analysis: comparative study, limited worst-case assessment, and more sophisticated probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Data for relative and absolute impact measures are provided to support comparisons of routes based on selected characteristics. A worst-case scenario assessment is included to determine potentially critical and most likely places for accidents or incidents to occur. The assessment facilitated by the data in this study is limited because impact measures are restricted to the identification of potential areas or persons affected. No attempt is made to quantify the magnitude of these impacts. Most likely locations for accidents to occur are determined relative to other locations within the scope of this study. Independent factors and historical trends used to identify these likely locations are only proxies for accident probability

  6. 76 FR 13972 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Papaya Fruit From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-15

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... prepared a pest risk analysis for the purpose of evaluating the pest risks associated with the importation... sufficient to mitigate the pest risk. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for...

  7. 75 FR 6346 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Male Summer Squash...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-09

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation of fresh... to mitigate the pest risk. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for...

  8. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundtang Paulsen, J

    2004-05-01

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  9. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  10. The Impact of Risk Indicators on Companies. Analysis on Economic Sectors

    OpenAIRE

    Lala - Popa Ion; Dalea Iustin

    2012-01-01

    The paper presents the result of a risk analysis of some companies, which are grouped in three economic sectors: production, construction and tourism. The main focus consists in the impact the three risk indicators have (risk of exploitation, financial risk, risk of bankruptcy) on the activities that underlie at each economic sector. The applicative part of this paper is materialized in a scientific approach that includes a number of 27 companies, grouped by sector, from Timis County, Romania...

  11. Modelling and Evaluating Software Project Risks with Quantitative Analysis Techniques in Planning Software Development

    OpenAIRE

    Elzamly, Abdelrafe; Hussin, Burairah

    2015-01-01

    Risk is not always avoidable, but it is controllable. The aim of this paper is to present new techniques which use the stepwise regression analysis tomodel and evaluate the risks in planning software development and reducing risk with software process improvement. Top ten software risk factors in planning software development phase and thirty control factors were presented to respondents. This study incorporates risk management approach and planning software development to mitigate software p...

  12. Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

    OpenAIRE

    Bin Suo; Ying Yan

    2013-01-01

    Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much un...

  13. An Analysis of the Construction of Total Risk Management Mechanism for Enterprises’ Accounts Receivable

    OpenAIRE

    Enzhu Li

    2009-01-01

    The accounts receivable that exist in enterprises’ operational activities will slow down the turnover of capitals and cause risks of bad debts, what will block the normal circulation of capitals and restrain enterprises’ healthy and orderly development. Therefore, it is vital for Chinese enterprises to emphasize on the risk management and risk defense of accounts receivable. By theoretical analysis, this paper makes comprehensive and systematic analysis on the problems that exist in the risk ...

  14. Plasma urate concentration and risk of coronary heart disease:a Mendelian randomisation analysis

    OpenAIRE

    White, Jon; Sofat, Reecha; Hemani, Gibran; Shah, Tina; Engmann, Jorgen; Dale, Caroline; Shah, Sonia; Kruger, Felix A.; Giambartolomei, Claudia; Swerdlow, Daniel I.; Palmer, Tom; McLachlan, Stela; Langenberg, Claudia; Zabaneh, Delilah; Lovering, Ruth

    2016-01-01

    Summary Background Increased circulating plasma urate concentration is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease, but the extent of any causative effect of urate on risk of coronary heart disease is still unclear. In this study, we aimed to clarify any causal role of urate on coronary heart disease risk using Mendelian randomisation analysis. Methods We first did a fixed-effects meta-analysis of the observational association of plasma urate and risk of coronary heart disease...

  15. A Graphical Adversarial Risk Analysis Model for Oil and Gas Drilling Cybersecurity

    OpenAIRE

    Vieira, Aitor Couce; Houmb, Siv Hilde; Insua, David Rios

    2014-01-01

    Oil and gas drilling is based, increasingly, on operational technology, whose cybersecurity is complicated by several challenges. We propose a graphical model for cybersecurity risk assessment based on Adversarial Risk Analysis to face those challenges. We also provide an example of the model in the context of an offshore drilling rig. The proposed model provides a more formal and comprehensive analysis of risks, still using the standard business language based on decisions, risks, and value.

  16. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica T.; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Porta-Sancho, Juan R.

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative flood risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a standardized framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response and consequen...

  17. Study of Hip Fracture Risk using Tree Structured Survival Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Y

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In dieser Studie wird das Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei postmenopausalen Frauen untersucht, indem die Frauen in verschiedene Subgruppen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos klassifiziert werden. Frauen in einer gemeinsamen Subgruppe haben ein ähnliches Risiko, hingegen in verschiedenen Subgruppen ein unterschiedliches Hüftfraktur-Risiko. Die Subgruppen wurden mittels der Tree Structured Survival Analysis (TSSA aus den Daten von 7.665 Frauen der SOF (Study of Osteoporosis Fracture ermittelt. Bei allen Studienteilnehmerinnen wurde die Knochenmineraldichte (BMD von Unterarm, Oberschenkelhals, Hüfte und Wirbelsäule gemessen. Die Zeit von der BMD-Messung bis zur Hüftfraktur wurde als Endpunkt notiert. Eine Stichprobe von 75% der Teilnehmerinnen wurde verwendet, um die prognostischen Subgruppen zu bilden (Trainings-Datensatz, während die anderen 25% als Bestätigung der Ergebnisse diente (Validierungs-Datensatz. Aufgrund des Trainings-Datensatzes konnten mittels TSSA 4 Subgruppen identifiziert werden, deren Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei einem Follow-up von im Mittel 6,5 Jahren bei 19%, 9%, 4% und 1% lag. Die Einteilung in die Subgruppen erfolgte aufgrund der Bewertung der BMD des Ward'schen Dreiecks sowie des Oberschenkelhalses und nach dem Alter. Diese Ergebnisse konnten mittels des Validierungs-Datensatzes reproduziert werden, was die Sinnhaftigkeit der Klassifizierungregeln in einem klinischen Setting bestätigte. Mittels TSSA war eine sinnvolle, aussagekräftige und reproduzierbare Identifikation von prognostischen Subgruppen, die auf dem Alter und den BMD-Werten beruhen, möglich. In this paper we studied the risk of hip fracture for post-menopausal women by classifying women into different subgroups based on their risk of hip fracture. The subgroups were generated such that all the women in a particular subgroup had relatively similar risk while women belonging to two different subgroups had rather different risks of hip fracture. We used the Tree Structured

  18. Information Security Risk Analysis Methods and Research Trends: AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang Lee

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Information security risk analysis becomes an increasingly essential component of organization’s operations. Traditional Information security risk analysis is quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. Quantitative and qualitative analysis methods have some advantages for information risk analysis. However, hierarchy process has been widely used in security assessment. A future research direction may be development and application of soft computing such as rough sets, grey sets, fuzzy systems, generic algorithm, support vector machine, and Bayesian network and hybrid model. Hybrid model are developed by integrating two or more existing model. A Practical advice for evaluation information security risk is discussed. This approach is combination with AHP and Fuzzy comprehensive method

  19. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    Societies around the world are faced with flood risk, prompting authorities and decision makers to manage risk to protect population and assets. With climate change, urbanisation and population growth, flood risk changes constantly, requiring flood risk management strategies that are flexible and...... robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...... measures, allows identifying flexible and robust flood risk management strategies. Based on it, this thesis investigates hierarchical flood protection systems, which encompass two, or more, hierarchically integrated flood protection structures on different spatial scales (e.g. dikes, local flood barriers...

  20. DNA adducts and cancer risk in prospective studies: a pooled analysis and a meta-analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veglia, Fabrizio; Loft, Steffen; Matullo, Giuseppe; Peluso, Marco; Munnia, Armelle; Perera, Frederica; Phillips, David H; Tang, Deliang; Autrup, Herman; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Tjønneland, Anne; Vineis, Paolo

    2008-01-01

    Bulky DNA adducts are biomarkers of exposure to aromatic compounds and of the ability of the individual to metabolically activate carcinogens and to repair DNA damage. Their ability to predict cancer onset is uncertain. We have performed a pooled analysis of three prospective studies on cancer risk...... in which bulky DNA adducts have been measured in blood samples collected from healthy subjects (N = 1947; average follow-up 51-137 months). In addition, we have performed a meta-analysis by identifying all articles on the same subject published up to the end of 2006, including case-control studies....... In the pooled analysis, a weakly statistically significant increase in the risk of lung cancer was apparent (14% per unit standard deviation change in adduct levels, 95% confidence interval 1-28%; using the weighted mean difference method, 0.15 SD, units higher adducts in cases than in controls). The...