WorldWideScience

Sample records for analysis risk spar

  1. SPAR Model Structural Efficiencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Schroeder; Dan Henry

    2013-04-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are supporting initiatives aimed at improving the quality of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Included in these initiatives are the resolution of key technical issues that are have been judged to have the most significant influence on the baseline core damage frequency of the NRC’s Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and licensee PRA models. Previous work addressed issues associated with support system initiating event analysis and loss of off-site power/station blackout analysis. The key technical issues were: • Development of a standard methodology and implementation of support system initiating events • Treatment of loss of offsite power • Development of standard approach for emergency core cooling following containment failure Some of the related issues were not fully resolved. This project continues the effort to resolve outstanding issues. The work scope was intended to include substantial collaboration with EPRI; however, EPRI has had other higher priority initiatives to support. Therefore this project has addressed SPAR modeling issues. The issues addressed are • SPAR model transparency • Common cause failure modeling deficiencies and approaches • Ac and dc modeling deficiencies and approaches • Instrumentation and control system modeling deficiencies and approaches

  2. Collision Analysis of the Spar Upper Module Docking

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Liu; Liping Sun; Chunlin Wu; Guo Wei

    2014-01-01

    In order to assess the possible collision effect, a numerical simulation for the upper module and spar platform docking at the speed of 0.2 m/s was conducted by using the software ANSYS/LS-DYNA, and the time history of the collision force, energy absorption and structural deformation during the collision was described. The purpose was to ensure that the platform was safely put into operation. Furthermore, this paper analyzes different initial velocities and angles on the Von Mises stress and collision resultant force during the docking collision. The results of this paper showed that the docking could be conducted with higher security. The data in this paper can provide useful references for the determination of the upper module’s offshore hoisting scheme and practical construction by contrasting the numerical simulation results of the parameters on the docking collision.

  3. An Integrated Structural Strength Analysis Method for Spar Type Floating Wind Turbine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡志强; 刘毅; 王晋

    2016-01-01

    An integrated structural strength analysis method for a Spar type floating wind turbine is proposed in this paper, and technical issues related to turbine structure modeling and stress combination are also addressed. The NREL-5MW “Hywind” Spar type wind turbine is adopted as study object. Time-domain dynamic coupled simulations are performed by a fully-coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool, FAST, on the purpose of obtaining the dynamic characteristics of the floating wind turbine, and determining parameters for design load cases of finite element calculation. Then design load cases are identified, and finite element analyses are performed for these design load cases. The structural stresses due to wave-induced loads and wind-induced loads are calculated, and then combined to assess the structural strength of the floating wind turbine. The feasibility of the proposed structural strength analysis method for floating wind turbines is then validated.

  4. An integrated structural strength analysis method for Spar type floating wind turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhi-qiang; Liu, Yi; Wang, Jin

    2016-04-01

    An integrated structural strength analysis method for a Spar type floating wind turbine is proposed in this paper, and technical issues related to turbine structure modeling and stress combination are also addressed. The NREL-5MW "Hywind" Spar type wind turbine is adopted as study object. Time-domain dynamic coupled simulations are performed by a fully-coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool, FAST, on the purpose of obtaining the dynamic characteristics of the floating wind turbine, and determining parameters for design load cases of finite element calculation. Then design load cases are identified, and finite element analyses are performed for these design load cases. The structural stresses due to wave-induced loads and wind-induced loads are calculated, and then combined to assess the structural strength of the floating wind turbine. The feasibility of the proposed structural strength analysis method for floating wind turbines is then validated.

  5. Proposed SPAR Modeling Method for Quantifying Time Dependent Station Blackout Cut Sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John A. Schroeder

    2010-06-01

    Abstract: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (USNRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and industry risk models take similar approaches to analyzing the risk associated with loss of offsite power and station blackout (LOOP/SBO) events at nuclear reactor plants. In both SPAR models and industry models, core damage risk resulting from a LOOP/SBO event is analyzed using a combination of event trees and fault trees that produce cut sets that are, in turn, quantified to obtain a numerical estimate of the resulting core damage risk. A proposed SPAR method for quantifying the time-dependent cut sets is sometimes referred to as a convolution method. The SPAR method reflects assumptions about the timing of emergency diesel failures, the timing of subsequent attempts at emergency diesel repair, and the timing of core damage that may be different than those often used in industry models. This paper describes the proposed SPAR method.

  6. Design Analysis And Application Of Nylon66 In Rotary Spars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.K. Harish Kumar

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Technology has led to the increased use of plastics as replacement to conventional materials in various sectors. The use of alloy steels in various rotary spares such as gears, cams, bearings, valve seats and other bearing and wear applications that requires quite operation, low coefficient of friction and wear resistance shall be replaced with nylon 66 as per requirements. In the present work I am applying nylon66 in gears and sprocket wheels used in automotive it is proposed to substitute the metallic rotating spares like gears and sprockets with nylon 66 to reduce the weight and noise. For this purpose different types of polymers were considered namely Polyethylene, PVC, Polystyrene, Polypropylene and Nylon66 and their viability are checked with their counterpart metallic gear (Cast iron. Based on the static analysis, the best plastic material is recommended for the purpose.3D model of gears and sprocket wheel chain assembly has been modeled by using Pro-E WF4. The models are then pre-processed using hyper mesh 10 .

  7. The NRC's SPAR Models: Current Status, Future Development, and Modeling Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert F. Buell

    2008-09-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) play an increasingly important role in the regulatory framework of the U.S. nuclear power industry. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) relies on a set of plant-specific Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models to provide critical risk-based input to the regulatory process. The Significance Determination Process (SDP), Management Directive 8.3 - NRC Incident Investigation Program, Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) and Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) programs are among the regulatory initiatives that receive significant input from the SPAR models. Other uses of the SPAR models include: Screening & Resolution of Generic Safety Issues, License Amendment reviews and Notice of Enforcement Discretion (NOEDs). This paper presents the current status of SPAR model development activities, future development objectives, and issues related to the development, verification and maintenance of the SPAR models.

  8. Dynamic testing and analysis of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izapanah, Amir P.; Baucon, Robert M.

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist elastic coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars, representative of the primary load carrying structure within a helicopter rotor blade, was manufactured using four plies of woven graphite/epoxy cloth 'prepreg.' These spars were non-circular in cross section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three cross-sectional geometries were developed: square, D-shape, and flattened ellipse. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models developed in MSC/NASTRAN. Five global or 'non-shell' modes were identified within the 0-2000 Hz range for each spar. The frequencies and associated mode shapes for the D-shape spar were correlated with analytical results, showing agreement within 13.8 percent. Frequencies corresponding to the five global mode shapes for the square spar agreed within 9.5 percent of the analytical results. Five global modes were similarly identified for the elliptical spar and agreed within 4.9 percent of the respective analytical results.

  9. Flexible dynamic analysis of an offshore wind turbine installed on a floating spar platform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangqian Zhu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Flexible dynamic analysis is a critical process in designing offshore wind turbines that are composed of several huge components. This process was implemented with a hybrid method of finite element multibody system using commercial software in this article. Based on this method, the tower and blades were modeled as flexible components using three-dimensional solid elements. The effect of flexible deformation of the tower and blades on the global motions of the floating wind turbine was investigated by comparing the simulation results from the flexible body modeling with those from the rigid body modeling. The tower, blades, and spar platform were divided into sections according to the geometry configuration of the 5-MW OC3-Hywind floating wind turbine. The time- and position-dependent loads, coming from the wind, wave, and mooring system, were expressed approximately with respect to the divided sections. The relationships between the global motions and the external loads were studied, which indicated that the wind loads had dominant influences on the translational motions and the rotational motions were mainly generated by the propagating waves.

  10. SparSNP: Fast and memory-efficient analysis of all SNPs for phenotype prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Abraham Gad; Kowalczyk Adam; Zobel Justin; Inouye Michael

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background A central goal of genomics is to predict phenotypic variation from genetic variation. Fitting predictive models to genome-wide and whole genome single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) profiles allows us to estimate the predictive power of the SNPs and potentially develop diagnostic models for disease. However, many current datasets cannot be analysed with standard tools due to their large size. Results We introduce SparSNP, a tool for fitting lasso linear models for massive S...

  11. Study of composite wind turbine spars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Syed Shahrukh

    This report presents a theoretical, numerical and experimental study of composite wind turbine spars under bending loads. Spars were made from commercially available glass/ carbon fiber material. The spars were composed of uniaxial (0°) flanges and biaxial (+/-45°) shear webs. Items of particular study were co-block polymer additives in vinyl ester resins, a presumably new spar design, and using carbon fiber pultrusions for spar caps (flanges). Composites are very strong and thus tend to be thin, which exacerbates the problem of buckling. Further, fibers also buckle at the micro level, leading to lower effective compression strength than tensile strength of a composite. Many structures tend to buckle in out of plane direction which can cause early and abrupt failure. A 3-point bend test rig was manufactured in-house for experimentally testing composite spars. The experiments indicated abrupt failure without any sign or other form of damage. Limited number of spars was made with slightly different construction. All spars were subjected to same testing environment. Finite element analyses were performed in order to shed light on the failure mechanisms leading to catastrophic failure. The FE code Ansys was used for the analyses. 3D models were developed, loads were applied, and linear elastic static as well as buckling analyses were performed. The results obtained from analysis were in reasonable agreement with the experimental tests.

  12. Response Analysis of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Under Atmospheric Icing Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Etemaddar, Mahmoud; Hansen, Martin Otto Laver; Moan, Torgeir

    2014-01-01

    , normal and emergency rotor shutdown, extreme gusts, and survival conditions. Atmospheric icing is simulated by using the ice accretion simulation code LEWICE. A CFD method is used to estimate the blade aerodynamic degradation due to icing. The effects of icing on one, two, or three blades are compared......One of the challenges for the development of wind energy in offshore cold-climate regions is atmospheric icing. This paper examines the effects of atmospheric icing on power production, overall performance, and extreme loads of a 5-MW spar-type floating offshore wind turbine during power production......, as are the effects of atmospheric icing on land-based and offshore wind turbines....

  13. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    April M. Whaley; Dana L. Kelly; Ronald L. Boring; William J. Galyean

    2012-06-01

    Step-by-step guidance was developed recently at Idaho National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission on the use of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This work was done to address SPAR-H user needs, specifically requests for additional guidance on the proper application of various aspects of the methodology. This paper overviews the steps of the SPAR-H analysis process and highlights some of the most important insights gained during the development of the step-by-step directions. This supplemental guidance for analysts is applicable when plant-specific information is available, and goes beyond the general guidance provided in existing SPAR-H documentation. The steps highlighted in this paper are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff.

  14. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  15. Sparring And Neurological Function In Professional Boxers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John W Stiller

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available AbstractDespite increased interest regarding the potentially long-term negative impact of chronic traumatic brain injury (CTBI, limited research had been conducted regarding such injuries and neurological outcomes in real world settings. To increase understanding regarding the relationship between sparring (e.g., number of years actively training for professional boxing and neurological functioning, professional boxers (n = 237 who competed in Maryland between 2003 to 2008 completed measures regarding sparring exposure (Cumulative Sparring Index; CSI and performance on tests of cognition (Symbol Digit Modalities Test; SDMT and balance (Sharpened Romberg Test; SRT. Measures were completed prior to boxing matches. Higher scores on the CSI (increased sparring exposure were associated with poorer performance on both tests of cognition (SDMT and balance (SRT. A threshold effect was noted regarding performance on the SDMT, with those reporting CSI values greater than about 150 experiencing a decline in cognition. A history of frequent and/or intense sparring may pose a significant risk for developing boxing associated neurological sequelae. Implementing administration of clinically meaningful tests before bouts, such as the CSI, SDMT, and/or the SRT, as well as documentation of results into the boxer’s physicals or medical profiles may be an important step for improving boxing safety.

  16. Decommissioning the Brent Spar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 1995 the oil company Shell was granted a deep-sea UK Government Licence to dispose of the oil storage and off-loading platform Brent Spar, their intention being to sink it in the North Atlantic. This prompted a Greenpeace protest, resulting in their occupation of the Spar in May 1995, this ended in late June with Shell's capitulation. This was given widespread publicity in the media throughout the world, and it was a further three years before the UK Government issued another licence for final disposal, this time for its reuse in a quay extension in Norway. This book examines the background to the events, and concludes that serious errors were made by all organisations directly involved, however as a result of these mistakes lessons have been learned for the future. (UK)

  17. Stochastic Dynamic Response Analysis of Spar-Type Wind Turbines with Catenary or Taut Mooring Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Karimirad, Madjid

    2011-01-01

    Floating wind turbines can be the most practical and economical way to extract the vast offshore wind energy resources at deep and intermediate water depths. The Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy is strongly committed to developing offshore wind technology that utilises available renewable energy sources. As the wind is steadier and stronger over the sea than over land, the wind industry recently moved to offshore areas. Analysis of the structural dynamic response of offshore wind tu...

  18. Guidance on Dependence Assessment in SPAR-H

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    April M. Whaley

    2012-06-01

    As part of the effort to develop the SPAR-H user guidance, particular attention was paid to the assessment of dependence in order to address user questions about proper application of dependence. This paper presents a discussion of dependence from a psychological perspective and provides guidance on applying this information during the qualitative analysis of dependence to ensure more realistic and appropriate dependence assessments with the SPAR-H method. While this guidance was developed with SPAR-H in mind, it may be informative to other human reliability analysis methods that also use a THERP-based dependence approach, particularly if applied at the human failure event level.

  19. HUMAN ERROR QUANTIFICATION USING PERFORMANCE SHAPING FACTORS IN THE SPAR-H METHOD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harold S. Blackman; David I. Gertman; Ronald L. Boring

    2008-09-01

    This paper describes a cognitively based human reliability analysis (HRA) quantification technique for estimating the human error probabilities (HEPs) associated with operator and crew actions at nuclear power plants. The method described here, Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method, was developed to aid in characterizing and quantifying human performance at nuclear power plants. The intent was to develop a defensible method that would consider all factors that may influence performance. In the SPAR-H approach, calculation of HEP rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action-oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor multipliers upon those nominal error rates.

  20. Brent Spar abandonment - impact hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes the predicted fate of the Brent Spar storage and offloading platform following its proposed deep sea abandonment. Based on the characteristics of the Brent Spar and the contents of the buoy this ''Impact Hypothesis'' uses currently available knowledge of the North East Atlantic deep sea environment. Three scenarios based on possible outcomes are considered, incllcuding the release of metals into the water following corrosion of the structure. (UK)

  1. A New Approach to Quantify Level 2 SPAR Models in SAPHIRE 8

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhegang Ma; John Schroeder; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood; Martin Sattison

    2012-11-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (USNRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Level 2 models for U.S. commercial nuclear power plants has historically used a partitioning approach for plant damage state (PDS) binning and model quantification since late 1990s [1]. While this approach has the advantage to be able to identify the details of the severe accident sequences with one or more individual PDS vector characters, the Level 2 model quantification process is tedious and error-prone with multiple steps involved. A new approach to quantify Level 2 SPAR models was recently developed and implemented in the latest SAPHIRE Version 8 [2]. The new approach removes the partition rules and greatly simplifies the quantification process.

  2. A concept study of a carbon spar cap design for a 80m wind turbine blade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosemeier, M.; Bätge, M.

    2014-06-01

    The buckling resistance is a key design driver for large wind turbine blades with a significant influence on the material costs. During the structural design process the choice was made for carbon spar caps and two shear webs, which were set relatively far apart in order to stabilize the panels. This design presented a major challenge for the stability of the spar caps. The topology of these spar caps has been modified with regard to stability, comparing a continuous spar cap with split spar cap concepts and considering both lay-ups with hybrid carbon glass spar caps or sandwich concepts. Within those concepts, parametric studies were conducted varying different geometrical parameters of the spar caps and its layups. In order to determine the buckling resistance of the spar cap, an analytical model considering a 2D cross section discretized blade model was utilized to select the basic concept, after which a 3D numerical finite element model taking the whole blade into account was used to evaluate the chosen design concepts. The stability limit state analysis was conducted according to the certification scheme of GL guideline 2012. The various concepts were evaluated based on the blade's mass, tip deflection and modal properties. The results of this design process of the spar caps and the evaluation of the used analysis tools are presented within the paper.

  3. A concept study of a carbon spar cap design for a 80m wind turbine blade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The buckling resistance is a key design driver for large wind turbine blades with a significant influence on the material costs. During the structural design process the choice was made for carbon spar caps and two shear webs, which were set relatively far apart in order to stabilize the panels. This design presented a major challenge for the stability of the spar caps. The topology of these spar caps has been modified with regard to stability, comparing a continuous spar cap with split spar cap concepts and considering both lay-ups with hybrid carbon glass spar caps or sandwich concepts. Within those concepts, parametric studies were conducted varying different geometrical parameters of the spar caps and its layups. In order to determine the buckling resistance of the spar cap, an analytical model considering a 2D cross section discretized blade model was utilized to select the basic concept, after which a 3D numerical finite element model taking the whole blade into account was used to evaluate the chosen design concepts. The stability limit state analysis was conducted according to the certification scheme of GL guideline 2012. The various concepts were evaluated based on the blade's mass, tip deflection and modal properties. The results of this design process of the spar caps and the evaluation of the used analysis tools are presented within the paper

  4. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  5. Turbine blade with spar and shell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Daniel O.; Peterson, Ross H.

    2012-04-24

    A turbine blade with a spar and shell construction in which the spar and the shell are both secured within two platform halves. The spar and the shell each include outward extending ledges on the bottom ends that fit within grooves formed on the inner sides of the platform halves to secure the spar and the shell against radial movement when the two platform halves are joined. The shell is also secured to the spar by hooks extending from the shell that slide into grooves formed on the outer surface of the spar. The hooks form a serpentine flow cooling passage between the shell and the spar. The spar includes cooling holes on the lower end in the leading edge region to discharge cooling air supplied through the platform root and into the leading edge cooling channel.

  6. Wind-wave induced dynamic response analysis for motions and mooring loads of a spar-type offshore floating wind turbine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马钰; 肖龙飞; 胡志强

    2014-01-01

    Due to the energy crisis and the environmental issues like pollution and global warming, the exploration for renewable and clean energies becomes crucial. The offshore floating wind turbines (OFWTs) draw a great deal of attention recently as a means to exploit the steadier and stronger wind resources available in deep water seas. This paper studies the hydrodynamic characteristics of a spar-type wind turbine known as the OC3-Hywind concept and the dynamic responses of the turbine. Response characteristics of motions and mooring loads of the system under different sea states are evaluated and the effects of the loads induced by the wind and the wave on the system are discussed. The calculations are carried out with the numerical simulation code FAST in the time domain and the frequency analysis is made by using the FFT method. The results and the conclusions from this paper might help better understand the behavior characteristics of the floating wind turbine system under actual ocean environments and provide valuable data in design and engineering practice.

  7. NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION ON THE HYDRODYNAMIC PERFORMANCES OF A NEW SPAR CONCEPT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Recently, the spar platform concept develops quickly in the offshore oil and gas exploitations, especially in deep and ultra-deep water, owing to its benign motion performance, excellent stability and adaptation to wide range of water depth. Many new spar concepts have been put forward with the purpose of reducing fabrication difficulty and cost, while meeting the requirements of exploitation in the meantime. Based on the aims mentioned above, a new spar concept was presented in this article and its hydrodynamics both in operating and survival conditions was studied by means of numerical simulation. Basic model tests were also conducted to calibrate the numerical approach. Following aspects are highlighted: (1) new spar concept, (2) global performance of the spar concept and (3) mooring line analysis.

  8. Spar på Farten

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agerholm, Niels; Juhl, Jens; Sonne, Ian Berg;

    Spar på Farten er et Nordjysk INFATI projekt (Intelligent FartTilpasning). Projektet er baseret på et princip om, at i jo mindre grad hastighedsgrænsen overskrides, jo mere sparer den enkelte forsøgsdeltager på sin bilforsikring. Når overskridelse af hastighedsgrænsen skal gøres op i penge, er de...

  9. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field

  10. Pulsed eddy current inspection of CF-188 inner wing spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horan, Peter Francis

    Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) CF-188 Hornet aircraft engineering authorities have stated a requirement for a Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technique to detect Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) in the inner wing spars without fastener or composite wing skin removal. Current radiographic inspections involve significant aircraft downtime, and Pulsed Eddy Current (PEC) inspection is proposed as a solution. The aluminum inner wing spars of CF-188 Hornet aircraft may undergo stress corrosion cracking (SCC) along the spar between the fasteners that secure carbon-fiber/ epoxy composite skin to the wing. Inspection of the spar through the wing skin is required to avoid wing disassembly. The thickness of the wing skin varies between 8 and 20 mm (0.3 to 0.8 inch) and fasteners may be either titanium or ferrous. PEC generated by a probe centered over a fastener, demonstrates capability of detecting simulated cracks within spars with the wing skin present. Comparison of signals from separate sensors, mounted to either side of the excitation coil, is used to detect differences in induced eddy current fields, which arise in the presence of cracks. To overcome variability in PEC signal response due to variation in 1) skin thickness, 2) fastener material and size, and 3) centering over fasteners, a large calibration data set is acquired. Multi-dimensional scores from a Modified Principal Components Analysis (PCA) of the data are reduced to one dimension (1D) using a Discriminant Analysis method. Under inspection conditions, calibrated PCA scores combined with discriminant analysis permit rapid real time go/no-go PEC detection of cracks in CF-188 inner wing spar. Probe designs using both pickup coils and Giant Magnetoresistive (GMR) sensors were tested on samples with the same ferrous and titanium fasteners found on the CF-188. Flaws were correctly detected at lift-offs of up to 21mm utilizing a variety of insulating skin materials simulating the carbon-fibre reinforced polymer

  11. Response Analysis and Comparison of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine and an Onshore Wind Turbine under Blade Pitch Controller Faults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Etemaddar, M.; Blanke, Mogens; Gao, Z.;

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyses the effects of three pitch controller faults on the responses of an onshorewind turbine and a spar-type offshore floating wind turbine. These faults include:a stuck blade pitch actuator,a fixed value fault and a bias fault of the blade pitch sensor.The faults are modeled...... amplitudes are investigated by comparing the same response under normal operation.The severities of the individual faults are categorized by the extreme values of structural loads and the structural components are sorted based on the magnitude of the fault effects on the extreme values.The pitch sensor fixed...

  12. Design, Manufacture and Testing of A Bend-Twist D-Spar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ong, Cheng-Huat; Tsai, Stephen W.

    1999-06-01

    Studies have indicated that an adaptive wind turbine blade design can significantly enhance the performance of the wind turbine blade on energy capture and load mitigation. In order to realize the potential benefits of aeroelastic tailoring, a bend-twist D-spar, which is the backbone of a blade, was designed and fabricated to achieve the objectives of having maximum bend-twist coupling and fulfilling desirable structural properties (031 & GJ). Two bend-twist D-spars, a hybrid of glass and carbon fibers and an all-carbon D-spar, were fabricated using a bladder process. One of the D-spars, the hybrid D-spar, was subjected to a cantilever static test and modal testing. Various parameters such as materials, laminate schedule, thickness and internal rib were examined in designing a bend-twist D-spar. The fabrication tooling, the lay-up process and the joint design for two symmetric clamshells are described in this report. Finally, comparisons between the experimental test results and numerical results are presented. The comparisons indicate that the numerical analysis (static and modal analysis) agrees well with test results.

  13. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    W. J. Galyean; A. M. Whaley; D. L. Kelly; R. L. Boring

    2011-05-01

    This guide provides step-by-step guidance on the use of the SPAR-H method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This guide is intended to be used with the worksheets provided in: 'The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method,' NUREG/CR-6883, dated August 2005. Each step in the process of producing a Human Error Probability (HEP) is discussed. These steps are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff. The discussions on dependence are extensive and include an appendix that describes insights obtained from the psychology literature.

  14. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  15. Experimental Investigation on Hydrodynamic Behavior of the Geometric Spar Platform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Fan; YANG Jian-min; LI Run-pei; CHEN Gang

    2006-01-01

    In recent years, attention has been focused on the spar platform for gas and oil exploitation in deep water. With the development of offshore technology, many new spar concepts have been put forward and fully studied. This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on the hydrodynamic behavior of a new spar concept from Novellent Offshore LLC, USA, which is called Geometric Spar (G-spar). A new type of buoyancy can concept from the same company, viz. Integrated Buoyancy Can (IBC), is researched in the meantime. The G-spar and IBC models with a 1:70 scale are tested in the State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering at Shanghai Jiao Tong University for the global performance of the spar hull, in which the second-order wave drift force is involved, as well as the effect of heave plates on the motion characteristics and mooring force of the G-spar platform.

  16. Structural point defects in 'Iceland spar' calcite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trace element concentrations by micro-PIXE, cathodoluminescence (CL) emission spectra and electron spin resonance (ESR) spectra of Mn2+ in 'Iceland spar' calcite have been measured. The average rare earth elements (REE) abundances of the Iceland spar calcite revealed a concave shape with positive Eu and Tb anomalies. All samples show comparable average REE abundances compared to average chondrites standard. The REE signal in hydrothermal solution seems to be similar for the different locations and age of formation although the absolute REE concentration in the solution was certainly different. The CL-properties of investigated Iceland spar varied from orange to green. The orange luminescence is based on Mn2+ in Ca-position of calcite while this uncommon green luminescence is most likely attributed to UO22+ complex ions associated with electron-hole centres

  17. Brent Spar abandonment - Best Practicable Environmental Option (BPEO) assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Possible methods of abandoning or re-using the Brent Spar storage and tanker offloading facility following its decommissioning in 1991 are discussed. The report assesses six of the thirteen possible methods, including horizontal dismantling and onshore disposal, vertical dismantling and onshore disposal, in-field disposal, deep water disposal, refurbishment and re-use, and continued maintenance, in order to determine the Best Practicable Environmental Option (BPEO). The BPEO covers technical feasibility risks to health and safety of the work force, environmental impacts, public acceptability and costs. (UK)

  18. 33 CFR 147.825 - Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone... (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.825 Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone. (a) Description. The Chevron Genesis Spar, Green Canyon 205A (GC205A), is located at position 27°46′46.365″ N,...

  19. Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  20. Nonlinear random motion analysis of coupled heave-pitch motions of a spar platform considering 1st-order and 2nd-order wave loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuxiao; Tang, Yougang; Li, Wei

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we consider first- and second-order random wave loads and the effects of time-varying displacement volume and transient wave elevation to establish motion equations of the Spar platform's coupled heave-pitch. We generated random wave loads based on frequency-domain wave load transfer functions and the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) wave spectrum, designed program codes to solve the motion equations, and then simulated the coupled heave-pitch motion responses of the platform in the time domain. We then calculated and compared the motion responses in different sea conditions and separately investigated the effects of second-order random wave loads and transient wave elevation. The results show that the coupled heave-pitch motion responses of the platform are primarily dominated by wave height and the characteristic wave period, the latter of which has a greater impact. Second-order mean wave loads mainly affect the average heave value. The platform's pitch increases after the second-order low frequency wave loads are taken into account. The platform's heave is underestimated if the transient wave elevation term in the motion equations is neglected.

  1. FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

  2. Physiological Analysis and Research of the Free Sparring Feet Hitting the Target Training%武术散打项目打脚靶训练的生理学分析与研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林利君; 王程辉

    2011-01-01

    文章通过对散打运动员打脚靶时心率变化的情况进行监控,运用实验法和数理统计分析法,进一步掌握运动员在训练时的心率频率及其恢复情况。并利用心率情况客观地了解训练和比赛的激烈程度,分析影响训练效果的主要因素,从而更好地为各个运动队和俱乐部进行有针对性的科学训练提供依据和参考。%Through monitoring the changes of heart rate of Sanda athletes practicing the free sparring feet hitting foot target,with the methods of experiment and mathematical statistical analysis,the paper further understands the athletes in training frequency and recovery of their heart rate.Utilizing heart rate objectively understanding the intensity of training and competition,the study does analysis of the main factors affecting the training effect,then to offer some traning evidences and references for the sport team and clubs training.

  3. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  4. Approximations for column effect in airplane wing spars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Edward P; Short, Mac

    1927-01-01

    The significance attaching to "column effect" in airplane wing spars has been increasingly realized with the passage of time, but exact computations of the corrections to bending moment curves resulting from the existence of end loads are frequently omitted because of the additional labor involved in an analysis by rigorously correct methods. The present report represents an attempt to provide for approximate column effect corrections that can be graphically or otherwise expressed so as to be applied with a minimum of labor. Curves are plotted giving approximate values of the correction factors for single and two bay trusses of varying proportions and with various relationships between axial and lateral loads. It is further shown from an analysis of those curves that rough but useful approximations can be obtained from Perry's formula for corrected bending moment, with the assumed distance between points of inflection arbitrarily modified in accordance with rules given in the report. The discussion of general rules of variation of bending stress with axial load is accompanied by a study of the best distribution of the points of support along a spar for various conditions of loading.

  5. "Nonlinear coupled dynamic response of offshore spar platforms under regular sea waves" by A.K. Agarwal and A.K. Jain. Ocean Engineering 30; 2003; 517-555

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    31 (2004) 791–793 www.elsevier.com/locate/oceaneng Letter to the editor “Nonlinear coupled dynamic response of offshore spar platforms under regular sea waves” By Agarwal, AK and Jain, AK. Ocean Engineering, 2003, 30, 517-555 The authors have shown... the analysis of dynamic response of offshore spar plat- form under regular waves. They have rightly highlighted the features of present generation Spar. They also reviewed in detail (about three-and-half pages) on Spar for which itself could have been a review...

  6. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  7. Spar genetic analysis of two invasive species of Cichla (Tucunaré (Perciformes: Cichlidae in the Paraná river basin = Análise genética via spar, de duas espécies de Cichla (Tucunaré (Perciformes: Cichlidae introduzidas na Bacia do rio Paraná

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanna Caputo Almeida-Ferreira

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of exotic species in lake ecosystems has been greatly highlighted in the literature worldwide. Since introduction may threaten diversity of native fish, the issue turns up to be of paramount importance. Ecological effects may be predation, competition, parasitism or genetic, that is, changes in the genetic pool of populations owing to the occurrence of hybrids. Although the Tucunaré fish (Cichla is native to the Amazon region, it can be foundin other hydrographic basins in which it has been introduced. RAPD molecular marker research showed that there are two species (Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti belonging to the genus Cichla in the rivers of the Paraná basin. Different morphotypes in the region may also be due to hybridization. Current research used SPAR molecular markers to confirm the presence of hybrids and the rupture of isolation mechanisms. Seventy-two specimens collected in several sites of the river Paraná and Amazon basins were analyzed. Since exclusive SPAR molecular markers were obtained for Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti populations, the introduction of the two species in the region has been confirmed. Identification of the markers in specimens of theParaná river basin confirmed hybridization between these exotic species.A introdução de espécies exóticas nos ecossistemas lacustres tem sido muito destacada na literatura mundial, pois ameaça a diversidade de peixes nativos, tornando-se uma questão de extrema importância. Os efeitos observados podem ser ecológicos, como predação, competição e parasitismo ou genéticos, como a ocorrência de híbridos. Apesar do peixe tucunaré (Cichla ser nativo da região amazônica, ele pode ser encontrado em outras bacias hidrográficas nas quais foram introduzidos. Estudos utilizando marcadores moleculares RAPD revelaram que existem duas espécies (Cichla kelberi e C. piquiti do gênero Cichla na bacia do alto rio Paraná e morfotipos diferentes que podem ser devido

  8. Iceland spar and its legacy in science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Kristjánsson

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In the late 17th century, Rasmus Bartholin and Christiaan Huygens investigated a curious optical property of crystals found at Helgustaðir in Eastern Iceland. This property which has been called double refraction, revealed in the 19th century a new aspect of light which turned out to be very useful as a probe of the internal structure of matter. Clear specimens of these crystals, an unusually pure variety of calcite, have since around 1780 been known as ''Iceland spar''. Few if any other localities yielding calcite crystals of comparable size and quality were discovered before 1900, and no alternatives for use in precision optical instrumentation were developed until the 1930s. Hundreds of tons of calcite were exported from Helgustaðir, mostly between 1850 and 1925. However, little information has been found on trading routes for the material of optical quality, so that some enigmas remain regarding its supply-demand situation. A study of the scientific literature in the period up to 1930 has revealed that results obtained with the aid of Iceland spar accelerated progress within the earth sciences (in mineralogy and petrology, physics, chemistry, and biology, even by decades. This has also influenced the development of technology and of medicine in various direct and indirect ways.

  9. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KYU-HWAN; YANG

    2001-01-01

    Risk analysis is a useful tool for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data, contaminant residue levels, statistical tools, exposure values and relevant variants. Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates, along with statutory, engineering, economic, social, and political factors, in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options (NRC, 1983).……

  10. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KYU-HAWNYANG

    2001-01-01

    Risk analysis is a useful too for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data.contaminant residue levels,statistical tools,exposure values and relevant variants,Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates,along with statutory,engineering,economic,social,and political factors,in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options(NRC,1983).

  11. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@Risk analysis is a useful tool for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data, contaminant residue levels, statistical tools, exposure values and relevant variants. Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates, along with statutory, engineering, economic, social, and political factors, in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options (NRC, 1983).

  12. RISK ANALYSIS DEVELOPED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgiana Cristina NUKINA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Through Risk analysis developed model deciding whether control measures suitable for implementation. However, the analysis determines whether the benefits of a data control options cost more than the implementation.

  13. Astrophysics and Fusion Plasmas: application of the SparSpec algorithm to the data analysis and design of the ITER high-frequency Mirnov coil diagnostic system

    OpenAIRE

    Testa, Duccio; Carfantan, Herve; Chavan, Rene; Fasoli, Ambrogio; Lister, Jo; Moret, Jean-Marc; Panis, Theodoros; Sanchez, Francisco; Toussaint, Matthieu; Klein, Alexander; Snipes, Jo; Encheva, Anna; Vayakis, George; Walker, Christopher; Arshad, Shakeib

    2008-01-01

    Analysis of magnetic fluctuations is important for understanding the magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) properties of fusion plasmas. These properties affect nearly all aspects of behaviour of magnetic confinement, and thus are of interest in topics ranging from global plasma stability, control, and disruption avoidance, to more subtle areas such as MHD spectroscopy. Mode number analysis is generally accomplished by interpreting signals from a finite number of Mirnov coils, which typically are uneven...

  14. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  15. Risk analysis methodology survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  16. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  17. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  18. Plan for the Brent Spar. Wind and wave energy converter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In a competition on the future of the much discussed oil platform Brent Spar of Shell the idea to retrofit the platform into a combined wind/wave energy converter appears to be an attractive option for Shell

  19. A dynamic spar numerical model for passive shape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calogero, J. P.; Frecker, M. I.; Hasnain, Z.; Hubbard, J. E., Jr.

    2016-10-01

    A three-dimensional constraint-driven dynamic rigid-link numerical model of a flapping wing structure with compliant joints (CJs) called the dynamic spar numerical model is introduced and implemented. CJs are modeled as spherical joints with distributed mass and spring-dampers with coupled nonlinear spring and damping coefficients, which models compliant mechanisms spatially distributed in the structure while greatly reducing computation time compared to a finite element model. The constraints are established, followed by the formulation of a state model used in conjunction with a forward time integrator, an experiment to verify a rigid-link assumption and determine a flapping angle function, and finally several example runs. Modeling the CJs as coupled bi-linear springs shows the wing is able to flex more during upstroke than downstroke. Coupling the spring stiffnesses allows an angular deformation about one axis to induce an angular deformation about another axis, where the magnitude is proportional to the coupling term. Modeling both the leading edge and diagonal spars shows that the diagonal spar changes the kinematics of the leading edge spar verses only considering the leading edge spar, causing much larger axial rotations in the leading edge spar. The kinematics are very sensitive to CJ location, where moving the CJ toward the wing root causes a stronger response, and adding multiple CJs on the leading edge spar with a CJ on the diagonal spar allows the wing to deform with larger magnitude in all directions. This model lays a framework for a tool which can be used to understand flapping wing flight.

  20. Spar genetic analysis of two invasive species of Cichla (Tucunaré (Perciformes: Cichlidae in the Paraná river basin - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v33i1.4855 Spar genetic analysis of two invasive species of Cichla (Tucunaré (Perciformes: Cichlidae in the Paraná river basin - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v33i1.4855

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto José Prioli

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of exotic species in lake ecosystems has been greatly highlighted in the literature worldwide. Since introduction may threaten diversity of native fish, the issue turns up to be of paramount importance. Ecological effects may be predation, competition, parasitism or genetic, that is, changes in the genetic pool of populations owing to the occurrence of hybrids. Although the Tucunaré fish (Cichla is native to the Amazon region, it can be found in other hydrographic basins in which it has been introduced. RAPD molecular marker research showed that there are two species (Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti belonging to the genus Cichla in the rivers of the Paraná basin. Different morphotypes in the region may also be due to hybridization. Current research used SPAR molecular markers to confirm the presence of hybrids and the rupture of isolation mechanisms. Seventy-two specimens collected in several sites of the river Paraná and Amazon basins were analyzed. Since exclusive SPAR molecular markers were obtained for Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti populations, the introduction of the two species in the region has been confirmed. Identification of the markers in specimens of the Paraná river basin confirmed hybridization between these exotic species.The introduction of exotic species in lake ecosystems has been greatly highlighted in the literature worldwide. Since introduction may threaten diversity of native fish, the issue turns up to be of paramount importance. Ecological effects may be predation, competition, parasitism or genetic, that is, changes in the genetic pool of populations owing to the occurrence of hybrids. Although the Tucunaré fish (Cichla is native to the Amazon region, it can be found in other hydrographic basins in which it has been introduced. RAPD molecular marker research showed that there are two species (Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti belonging to the genus Cichla in the rivers of the Paraná basin. Different

  1. Risk Analysis of Marine Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis

    1998-01-01

    Basic concepts of risk analysis is introduced. Formulation and analysis of fault and event trees are treated.......Basic concepts of risk analysis is introduced. Formulation and analysis of fault and event trees are treated....

  2. Numerical Study on Global Motion of Truss Spar in Frequency and Time Domains for the Liwan 3-1 Area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Lu; LI Binbin; OU Jinping

    2011-01-01

    Using frequency and time domain analysis, the authors analyzed the hydrodynamics and motion behavior of a Truss Spar platform at a water depth of 1500 m in the Liwan 3-1 area of the South China Sea. Firstly, the seakeeping ability is acquired in the frequency domain by calculating the hull's hydrodynamics and comparing with a semi-submersible platform. The random wave analysis for 100-year, 10-year and 1-year return periods in Liwan 3-1 distinctly shows lower heave but larger surge and pitch responses of the Truss Spar than those of a semi-submersible. Secondly, 3-hour motions of the Truss Spar are predicted and compared in the time domain under 100-year return period conditions in Liwan 3-1 and the Gulf of Mexico. Thirdly, the hull/mooring line coupled and uncoupled models are compared. Finally, the responses of the Truss Spar under 10-year and 1-year return period conditions are assessed. The results reveal that the mooring line damping reflected by the coupled model distinctly decreases the low frequency motior The maximum heave response for 100-year return period waves is 1.23m and below 0. 1m for the case of 1-year return period.

  3. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  4. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  5. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  6. Advanced grid-stiffened composite shells for applications in heavy-lift helicopter rotor blade spars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan Nampy, Sreenivas

    Modern rotor blades are constructed using composite materials to exploit their superior structural performance compared to metals. Helicopter rotor blade spars are conventionally designed as monocoque structures. Blades of the proposed Heavy Lift Helicopter are envisioned to be as heavy as 800 lbs when designed using the monocoque spar design. A new and innovative design is proposed to replace the conventional spar designs with light weight grid-stiffened composite shell. Composite stiffened shells have been known to provide excellent strength to weight ratio and damage tolerance with an excellent potential to reduce weight. Conventional stringer--rib stiffened construction is not suitable for rotor blade spars since they are limited in generating high torsion stiffness that is required for aeroelastic stability of the rotor. As a result, off-axis (helical) stiffeners must be provided. This is a new design space where innovative modeling techniques are needed. The structural behavior of grid-stiffened structures under axial, bending, and torsion loads, typically experienced by rotor blades need to be accurately predicted. The overall objective of the present research is to develop and integrate the necessary design analysis tools to conduct a feasibility study in employing grid-stiffened shells for heavy-lift rotor blade spars. Upon evaluating the limitations in state-of-the-art analytical models in predicting the axial, bending, and torsion stiffness coefficients of grid and grid-stiffened structures, a new analytical model was developed. The new analytical model based on the smeared stiffness approach was developed employing the stiffness matrices of the constituent members of the grid structure such as an arch, helical, or straight beam representing circumferential, helical, and longitudinal stiffeners. This analysis has the capability to model various stiffening configurations such as angle-grid, ortho-grid, and general-grid. Analyses were performed using an

  7. Numerical Simulation of Wave Loading on a SPAR Platform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleefsman, K.M.T.; Veldman, A.E.P.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes a study of simulation of wave loading on a SPAR platform. The method used for the simulations is based on the Navier-Stokes equations, discretised using a finite volume method. The free-surface displacement is described by the VOF-method combined with a local height function. Th

  8. Graphics and composite material computer program enhancements for SPAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, G. L.; Baker, D. J.

    1980-01-01

    User documentation is provided for additional computer programs developed for use in conjunction with SPAR. These programs plot digital data, simplify input for composite material section properties, and compute lamina stresses and strains. Sample problems are presented including execution procedures, program input, and graphical output.

  9. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  10. COUPLING EFFECTS FOR CELL-TRUSS SPAR PLATFORM: COMPARISON OF FREQUENCY- AND TIME-DOMAIN ANALYSES WITH MODEL TESTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Fan; YANG Jian-min; LI Run-pei; CHEN Gang

    2008-01-01

    For the floating structures in deepwater, the coupling effects of the mooring lines and risers on the motion responses of the structures become increasingly significant. Viscous damping, inertial mass, current loading and restoring, etc. from these slender structures should be carefully handled to accurately predict the motion responses and line tensions. For the spar platforms, coupling the mooring system and riser with the vessel motion typically results in a reduction in extreme motion responses. This article presents numerical simulations and model tests on a new cell-truss spar platform in the State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering in Shanghai Jiaotong University. Results from three calculation methods, including frequency-domain analysis, time-domain semi-coupled and fully-coupled analyses, were compared with the experimental data to find the applicability of different approaches. Proposals for the improvement of numerical calculations and experimental technique were tabled as well.

  11. Regular paths in SparQL: querying the NCI Thesaurus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detwiler, Landon T; Suciu, Dan; Brinkley, James F

    2008-01-01

    OWL, the Web Ontology Language, provides syntax and semantics for representing knowledge for the semantic web. Many of the constructs of OWL have a basis in the field of description logics. While the formal underpinnings of description logics have lead to a highly computable language, it has come at a cognitive cost. OWL ontologies are often unintuitive to readers lacking a strong logic background. In this work we describe GLEEN, a regular path expression library, which extends the RDF query language SparQL to support complex path expressions over OWL and other RDF-based ontologies. We illustrate the utility of GLEEN by showing how it can be used in a query-based approach to defining simpler, more intuitive views of OWL ontologies. In particular we show how relatively simple GLEEN-enhanced SparQL queries can create views of the OWL version of the NCI Thesaurus that match the views generated by the web-based NCI browser.

  12. Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

  13. Operational Risk - Scenario Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Rippel, Milan; Teplý, Petr

    2008-01-01

    Operational risk management and measurement has been paid an increasing attention in last years. The main two reasons are the Basel II requirements that were to be complied with by all international active financial institutions by the end of 2006 and recent severe operational risk loss events. This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed ...

  14. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  15. Impact resistance of spar-shell composite fan blades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graff, J.; Stoltze, L.; Varholak, E. M.

    1973-01-01

    Composite spar-shell fan blades for a 1.83 meter (6 feet) diameter fan stage were fabricated and tested in a whirling arm facility to evaluate foreign object damage (FOD) resistance. The blades were made by adhesively bonding boron-epoxy shells on titanium spars and then adhesively bonding an Inconel 625 sheath on the leading edge. The rotating blades were individually tested at a tip speed of 800 feet per second. Impacting media used were gravel, rivets, bolt, nut, ice balls, simulated birds, and a real bird. Incidence angles were typical of those which might be experienced by STOL aircraft. The tests showed that blades of the design tested in this program have satisfactory impact resistance to small objects such as gravel, rivets, nuts, bolts, and two inch diameter ice balls. The blades suffered nominal damage when impacted with one-pound birds (9 to 10 ounce slice size). However, the shell was removed from the spar for a larger slice size.

  16. Nanoparticles: Uncertainty Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    2012-01-01

    approaches. To date, there have been a number of different approaches to assess uncertainty of environmental risks in general, and some have also been proposed in the case of nanoparticles and nanomaterials. In recent years, others have also proposed that broader assessments of uncertainty are also needed......Scientific uncertainty plays a major role in assessing the potential environmental risks of nanoparticles. Moreover, there is uncertainty within fundamental data and information regarding the potential environmental and health risks of nanoparticles, hampering risk assessments based on standard...... in order to handle the complex potential risks of nanoparticles, including more descriptive characterizations of uncertainty. Some of these approaches are presented and discussed herein, in which the potential strengths and limitations of these approaches are identified along with further challenges...

  17. Variable Torque Control of Offshore Wind Turbine on Spar Floating Platform Using Advanced RBF Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Offshore floating wind turbine (OFWT has been a challenging research spot because of the high-quality wind power and complex load environment. This paper focuses on the research of variable torque control of offshore wind turbine on Spar floating platform. The control objective in below-rated wind speed region is to optimize the output power by tracking the optimal tip-speed ratio and ideal power curve. Aiming at the external disturbances and nonlinear uncertain dynamic systems of OFWT because of the proximity to load centers and strong wave coupling, this paper proposes an advanced radial basis function (RBF neural network approach for torque control of OFWT system at speeds lower than rated wind speed. The robust RBF neural network weight adaptive rules are acquired based on the Lyapunov stability analysis. The proposed control approach is tested and compared with the NREL baseline controller using the “NREL offshore 5 MW wind turbine” model mounted on a Spar floating platform run on FAST and Matlab/Simulink, operating in the below-rated wind speed condition. The simulation results show a better performance in tracking the optimal output power curve, therefore, completing the maximum wind energy utilization.

  18. The components of microbiological risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gaetano Liuzzo; Stefano Bentley; Federica Giacometti; Andrea Serraino

    2015-01-01

    The paper describes the process of risk analysis in a food safety perspective. The steps of risk analysis defined as a process consisting of three interconnected components (risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication) are analysed. The different components of the risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are further described.

  19. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  20. Global Asteroid Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rumpf, Clemens

    2014-01-01

    Potentially impacting asteroids were analysed for their impact risk on the Earth. To this end, the Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) tool is currently being developed. The tool's modules are described and their validation is documented. Based on the asteroid ephemeris, the tool calculates the impact location probability distribution on the surface of the Earth (in the literature, occasionally referred to as risk corridor). NASA's Near Earth Object (NEO) risk list served as the source for asteroid ephemerides. The Line of Variation (LOV) method was employed to find virtual impactors. While offering a simple and fast way of identifying virtual impactors, the method provides a low impactor identification rate. This is because the search space is tightly constricted to the LOV and thus excludes virtual impactors located elsewhere in the asteroid position uncertainty region. The method's performance was evaluated and suggestions for improvements are provided. Application of the tool showed...

  1. Risk analysis and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, H. E.

    1990-01-01

    Present software development accomplishments are indicative of the emerging interest in and increasing efforts to provide risk assessment backbone tools in the manned spacecraft engineering community. There are indications that similar efforts are underway in the chemical processes industry and are probably being planned for other high risk ground base environments. It appears that complex flight systems intended for extended manned planetary exploration will drive this technology.

  2. CONSIDERATIONS ON ENTITY'S RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIRELA MONEA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, because of the complexity of this topic, the purpose is to discuss the main aspects involved by risk analysis; starting with few conceptual approaches about risk and to outline the contributions about methods to assess different risks categories, especially methods to assess bankruptcy risk prediction (entity insolvency from economic literature. The methods used to estimate bankruptcy risk are based on the score function which helps to find if an entity is confronted with financial difficulties. The score functions are a diagnosis method elaborated relying on the discriminant analysis, allowing to assess and to predict the bankruptcy risk of the entity using a set of relevant financial ratios.

  3. Workshop One : Risk Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carlson, T.J.; Jong, C.A.F. de; Dekeling, R.P.A.

    2012-01-01

    The workshop looked at the assessment of risk to aquatic animals exposed to anthropogenic sound. The discussion focused on marine mammals given the worldwide attention being paid to them at the present time, particularly in relationship to oil and gas exploration, ocean power, and increases in ship

  4. THE ANALYSIS OF FISCAL RISK

    OpenAIRE

    Alina Cojan

    2011-01-01

    This article describes the fiscal risk analysis, with emphasis on environmental and organizational factors, which should be taking into account in the risk management process. A special attention was given to the role of the fiscal policy and voluntary compliance related issues.

  5. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  6. Simplified Methods Applied to Nonlinear Motion of Spar Platforms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haslum, Herbjoern Alf

    2000-07-01

    Simplified methods for prediction of motion response of spar platforms are presented. The methods are based on first and second order potential theory. Nonlinear drag loads and the effect of the pumping motion in a moon-pool are also considered. Large amplitude pitch motions coupled to extreme amplitude heave motions may arise when spar platforms are exposed to long period swell. The phenomenon is investigated theoretically and explained as a Mathieu instability. It is caused by nonlinear coupling effects between heave, surge, and pitch. It is shown that for a critical wave period, the envelope of the heave motion makes the pitch motion unstable. For the same wave period, a higher order pitch/heave coupling excites resonant heave response. This mutual interaction largely amplifies both the pitch and the heave response. As a result, the pitch/heave instability revealed in this work is more critical than the previously well known Mathieu's instability in pitch which occurs if the wave period (or the natural heave period) is half the natural pitch period. The Mathieu instability is demonstrated both by numerical simulations with a newly developed calculation tool and in model experiments. In order to learn more about the conditions for this instability to occur and also how it may be controlled, different damping configurations (heave damping disks and pitch/surge damping fins) are evaluated both in model experiments and by numerical simulations. With increased drag damping, larger wave amplitudes and more time are needed to trigger the instability. The pitch/heave instability is a low probability of occurrence phenomenon. Extreme wave periods are needed for the instability to be triggered, about 20 seconds for a typical 200m draft spar. However, it may be important to consider the phenomenon in design since the pitch/heave instability is very critical. It is also seen that when classical spar platforms (constant cylindrical cross section and about 200m draft

  7. Complete Genome of the Attenuated Sparfloxacin-Resistant Streptococcus agalactiae Strain 138spar

    OpenAIRE

    Pridgeon, Julia W.; Zhang, Dunhua; Zhang, Lee

    2014-01-01

    Through the selection of resistance to sparfloxacin, an attenuated Streptococcus agalactiae strain, 138spar, was obtained from its virulent parent strain, S. agalactiae 138P. The full genome of S. agalactiae 138spar is 1,838,126 bp. This genome will allow comparative genomics to identify genes associated with virulence, antibiotic resistance, or other characteristics.

  8. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Through selection of resistance to sparfloxacin, an attenuated Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar was obtained from its virulent parent strain S. agalactiae 138P. The full genome of S. agalactiae 138spar is 1,838,126 bp. The availability of this genome will allow comparative genomics to identi...

  9. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  10. Software reliability analysis in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) is a tool which can reveal shortcomings of the NPP design in general. PRA analysts have not had sufficient guiding principles in modelling particular digital components malfunctions. Digital I and C systems are mostly analysed simply and the software reliability estimates are engineering judgments often lacking a proper justification. The OECD/NEA Working Group RISK's task DIGREL develops a taxonomy of failure modes of digital I and C systems. The EU FP7 project HARMONICS develops software reliability estimation method based on an analytic approach and Bayesian belief network. (author)

  11. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  12. An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sinpyo; Lee, Inwon; Park, Seong Hyeon; Lee, Cheolmin; Chun, Ho-Hwan; Lim, Hee Chang

    2015-09-01

    An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine is presented. The effects of the Center of Gravity (COG), mooring line spring constant, and fair-lead location on the turbine's motion in response to regular waves are investigated. Experimental results show that for a typical mooring system of a SPAR buoy-type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT), the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of the turbine can be considered negligible. However, the pitch decreases notably as the COG increases. The COG and spring constant of the mooring line have a negligible effect on the fairlead displacement. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that the wind turbine motion and its sensitivity to changes in the mooring system and COG are very large near resonant frequencies. The test results can be used to validate numerical simulation tools for FOWTs.

  13. Dam risk assistant analysis system design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In order to reduce the labor intensity and task difficulty of dam risk analysis and to meet the actual requirement of dam risk analysis,it is necessary to establish a dam risk assistant analysis system.The program structure and the implementation ways of the dam risk assistant analysis system are analyzed,and a procedural framework with "three-tier and multi-database" structure and "level structure" is established.The concept of dam risk assessment system modular development is proposed and the coupled mode of function module and data is improved.Finally,the dam risk assistant analysis system is developed using Delphi visual programming language.

  14. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  15. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  16. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  17. Uranium enrichment plant risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A method for risk analysis of enrichment facilities is presented and applied to a small scale ultracentrifuge plant. Internal events are identified and the consequences of accidental releases of U F6 are quantified in terms of its toxicological and radiological impact. It is shown that releases in the feed and the cascade areas offers no hazards to the public . Releases of liquefied U F6 in the withdrawal areas, associated with failures in the building isolation systems, may cause undesirable consequences. (author). 11 refs, 4 figs, 3 tabs

  18. Easy assessment of diversity in Jatropha curcas L. plants using two single-primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ranade, Shirish A.; Srivastava, Anuj P.; Srivastava, Jyoti; Tuli, Rakesh [PMB Division, National Botanical Research Institute, Rana Pratap Marg, Lucknow 226 001, U.P. (India); Rana, Tikam S. [Plant Biodiversity and Conservation Biology Division, National Botanical Research Institute, Rana Pratap Marg, Lucknow 226 001, U.P. (India)

    2008-06-15

    Jatropha curcas L. (physic nut) has drawn attention in recent years as a source of seed oil that can provide an economically viable substitute for diesel. Very little work on provenance trials and genetic resources of J. curcas L. has been reported so far. Though J. curcas grows widely in India and several collections of the plant are also maintained, pedigree and provenance records are not always available. This article reports our studies on the diversity amongst the accessions of J. curcas L., both amongst already held collections as well as from a few locations in the wild. Two single-primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods were used for this purpose. The accessions from the North East were most distant from all other accessions in UPGMA analysis. The NBRI, Bhubaneshwar and Lalkuan accessions were more related to each other. The UPGMA tree clearly shows well-separated accession groups: NBRI, Bhubaneshwar, North East, Lalkuan and Outgroup. The study suggests that this relatively recently introduced plant species shows adequate genetic diversity in India and that the SPAR methods are useful for a rapid assessment of the same. The methods provide important tools for analyzing the diversity within the available collections to shortlist the parental lines for adaptability trials and further improvement of Jatropha plants. (author)

  19. Analysis of foreign schools of risk management

    OpenAIRE

    I.M. Posokhov

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to study the scientific development of foreign scientific schools of risk management and analysis of their main publications; the allocation of foreign scientific schools of risk management. The results of the analysis. Research of modern risk management is carried out leading foreign schools. The most famous school in the theory of financial risk and risk management is American school. Among its current members are D. Galai, H. Greuning, A...

  20. Primer on Environmental Risk Analysis, A

    OpenAIRE

    Shogren, Jason F.

    1990-01-01

    Throughout history, hazardous material has represented a risk to individuals. The task of regulating risk can be overwhelming. A regulator must interpret and coordinate a wide variety of information from experts and the lay public. To aid the regulator, the loosely coordinated field of environmental risk analysis has evolved. This paper provides a nontechnical examination of the four steps in the analysis of risks associated with an environmental hazard. The steps are (1) risk assessment--the...

  1. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  2. Optimization design of spar cap layup for wind turbine blade

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    Based on the aerodynamic shape and structural form of the blade are fixed,a mathematical model of optimization design for wind turbine blade is established.The model is pursued with respect to minimum the blade mass to reduce the cost of wind turbine production.The material layup numbers of the spar cap are chosen as the design variables;while the demands of strength,stiffness and stability of the blade are employed as the constraint conditions.The optimization design for a 1.5 MW wind turbine blade is carried out by combing above objective and constraint conditions at the action of ultimate flapwise loads with the finite element software ANSYS.Compared with the original design,the optimization design result achieves a reduction of 7.2% of the blade mass,the stress and strain distribution of the blade is more reasonable,and there is no occurrence of resonance,therefore its effectiveness is verified.

  3. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian;

    2016-01-01

    the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following......, further research can focus on these most important risk indicators with the aim to optimise risk analysis....

  4. Risk Analysis for Tea Processing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@ Itis lbviors that after all the disasters with dilxins, BSE, pathogcns,Footand Mouth disease a. o. and now shortly because of the possibillties of bioterrorism, thatFoodSafetyisalmostatthetopoftheagendaoftheEUfor theyearstocome The implementaion of certainhy gicneprinci plessuchas HA C C P and a transparent hygiene policy applicable to all food and all food operators, from the farm to the table, togetherwith effoctiveinstruments to manage Food Safety will form fsubstantialpart on this agenda. As an example external quality factors such as certain pathogens in tea will. be discussed. Since risk analysis of e. g. my cotoxing have already a quite long histoy and development in sereral international bodies and tea might bear unwanted (or deliberately added by terroristic action)contaminants, the need to monitor teamuch more regularly than is being done today, seems to be a"conditio sine qua non ". Recentoy developed Immuno Flow tests may one day help the consumer perhaps to find out if he gets poisoned.

  5. Submarine Pipeline Routing Risk Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐慧; 于莉; 胡云昌; 王金英

    2004-01-01

    A new method for submarine pipeline routing risk quantitative analysis was provided, and the study was developed from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis.The characteristics of the potential risk of the submarine pipeline system were considered, and grey-mode identification theory was used. The study process was composed of three parts: establishing the indexes system of routing risk quantitative analysis, establishing the model of grey-mode identification for routing risk quantitative analysis, and establishing the standard of mode identification result. It is shown that this model can directly and concisely reflect the hazard degree of the routing through computing example, and prepares the routing selection for the future.

  6. Computational Fluid Dynamics and Experimental Study of Lock-in Phenomenon in Vortex-Induced Motions of a Cell-Truss Spar

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Ying; YANG Jian-min; L(U) Hai-ning

    2009-01-01

    Spar platforms could be subject to vortex-induced-motions (VIM) in certain current conditions. Lock-in is a phenomenon which occurs in a range of reduced velocities in VIM. In this paper, a new concept of spar platform called cell-truss spar is studied using both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and model test to investigate the VIM of the spar under different reduced velocities. The unique configuration of the cell-truss spar is carefully considered, and the unsteady flow around the spar is calculated and visualized in CFD simulations. A physical model with a scale ratio of 1:100 of the cell-truss spar is fabricated, and model tests are carried out in the current-generating ocean engineering basin. Many important parameters in VIM of the cell-truss spar are obtained, the occurrence of lock-in phenomenon is successfully simulated, and the mechanism and rules of lock-in are analyzed.

  7. Concept design and key technology of new deep-water SPAR and TLP

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    @@ The study of Concept Design and Key Technology of New DeepWater SPAR and TLP came to an end successfully after scientific and technical personnel had made two years' endeavor.The study, which was sponsored by CSIC Ship Design and Research Center Company with the participation of CSIC no 702 Institute, Shanghai LICE Company and Dalian SHI, is part of the national hi-tech study program (863), category Ocean Technology, project key technology and equipment for deep-sea oil and gas prospecting and exploration in South China Sea, subject concept design and key technology of new deepwater SPAR and TLP.

  8. Hazard and Risk Analysis in Culture Fisheries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.N. Ezekiel

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Culture fisheries is multi-faceted and also presents a diverse array of environment ranging from freshwater to marine and from simple stagnant ponds to high tech computerized closed indoor water recirculation systems. The industry is therefore, fraught with potential risks and hazards. Risk analysis is now widely applied in many fields that touch our daily lives. Risk analysis is a process that provides a flexible framework within which the risks of adverse consequences resulting from a course of action can be evaluated in a systematic, science-based manner. Governments and the private sector must often make decisions based on incomplete knowledge and a high degree of uncertainty. Such decisions may have far-reaching social, environmental and economic consequences. An integrated approach to risk analysis will assist the culture fisheries sector in reducing risks to successful operations from both internal and external hazards and can similarly help to protect the environment, society and other resource users from adverse and often unpredicted impacts. The principles for controlling hazards in Culture fisheries will include the identification of hazard, control of the hazard and monitoring of the effectiveness of the controls. This paper reviews the risk concept, general Principles, applications of risk analysis, management of hazards and risks in culture fisheries, application of risk analysis to culture fisheries and proffered management strategy to reduce or minimize hazards and risk in culture fisheries.

  9. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  10. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  11. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  12. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  13. Evaluation Between Existing and Improved CCF Modeling Using the NRC SPAR Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James K. Knudsen

    2010-06-01

    Abstract: The NRC SPAR models currently employ the alpha factor common cause failure (CCF) methodology and model CCF for a group of redundant components as a single “rolled-up” basic event. These SPAR models will be updated to employ a more computationally intensive and accurate approach by expanding the CCF basic events for all active components to include all terms that appear in the Basic Parameter Model (BPM). A discussion is provided to detail the differences between the rolled-up common cause group (CCG) and expanded BPM adjustment concepts based on differences in core damage frequency and individual component importance measures. Lastly, a hypothetical condition is evaluated with a SPAR model to show the difference in results between the current adjustment method (rolled-up CCF events) and the newer method employing all of the expanded terms in the BPM. The event evaluation on the SPAR model employing the expanded terms will be solved using the graphical evaluation module (GEM) and the proposed method discussed in Reference 1.

  14. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    The complete genome of a sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae vaccine strain 138spar is 1,838,126 bp in size. The genome has 1892 coding sequences and 82 RNAs. The annotation of the genome is added by the NCBI Prokaryotic Genome Annotation Pipeline. The publishing of this genome will allo...

  15. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different from...... conventional ships. To reach a documented level of safety, it is therefore not possible directly to transfer experience with conventional ships. The purpose of this paper is to present new rational scientific tools to assess and quantify the collision risk associated with HSC transportation. The paper...

  16. Combining risk analysis and security testing

    OpenAIRE

    Großmann, Jürgen; SCHNEIDER, Martin; Viehmann, Johannes; Wendland, Marc-Florian

    2014-01-01

    A systematic integration of risk analysis and security testing allows for optimizing the test process as well as the risk assessment itself. The result of the risk assessment, i.e. the identified vulnerabilities, threat scenarios and unwanted incidents, can be used to guide the test identification and may complement requirements engineering results with systematic information concerning the threats and vulnerabilities of a system and their probabilities and consequences. This information can ...

  17. Analysis of foreign schools of risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.M. Posokhov

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to study the scientific development of foreign scientific schools of risk management and analysis of their main publications; the allocation of foreign scientific schools of risk management. The results of the analysis. Research of modern risk management is carried out leading foreign schools. The most famous school in the theory of financial risk and risk management is American school. Among its current members are D. Galai, H. Greuning, A. Damodaran, P. Jorion, J. Kallman, M. Crouhy, M. Mccarthy, R. Mark, T. Flynn and other scientists. Important contribution to the development of the theory and practice of risk management made British scientists and economists – the representatives of English Schools of Risk Management: T. Andersen, T. Bedford, A. Griffin, A. Zaman, R. Cooke, P. Sweeting, P. Hopkin, a German P. Schroder and others. A significant advance to the theory of risk management of German scientific school, based on the classic work of Zadeh has received significant results of the risk assessment using fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets. Graduate School of Risk Management of the University of Cologne is training and research group funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG under the project «Theoretical and Empirical Basis of Risk Management». The aim of Graduate School of Risk Management is to promote young scientists. The school risk management of the University of Cologne outstanding research conducted by German and foreign professors, such as: K. Mosler, A. Kempf, C. Kuhner, T. Hartmann-Wendels, C. Homburg, D. Hess, D. Sliwka, F. Schmid, H. Schradin. The author noted the existence and fruitful work in the capital of Switzerland Laboratory of risk management (Risk Lab Switzerland and its leading scientists: P. Embrechts, A. Gisler, M. Wüthrich, H. Bühlmann, V. Bignozzi, M. Hofert, P. Deprez, and the Basel Committee on banking supervision – Developer international standards of Basel

  18. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  19. Formal analysis of security metrics and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Krautsevich L.; Martinelli F.; Yautsiukhin A.

    2011-01-01

    Security metrics are usually defined informally and, therefore, the rigourous analysis of these metrics is a hard task. This analysis is required to identify the existing relations between the security metrics, which try to quantify the same quality: security. Risk, computed as Annualised Loss Expectancy, is often used in order to give the overall assessment of security as a whole. Risk and security metrics are usually defined separately and the relation between these indicators have not been...

  20. SHRIMP U-Pb ages of xenotime and monazite from the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana: Implications for ore genesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleinikoff, John N.; Hayes, Timothy S.; Evans, Karl V.; Mazdab, Frank K.; Pillers, Renee M.; Fanning, C. Mark

    2012-01-01

    Xenotime occurs as epitaxial overgrowths on detrital zircons in the Mesoproterozoic Revett Formation (Belt Supergroup) at the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana. The deposit formed during diagenesis of Revett strata, where oxidizing metal-bearing hydrothermal fluids encountered a reducing zone. Samples for geochronology were collected from several mineral zones. Xenotime overgrowths (1–30 μm wide) were found in polished thin sections from five ore and near-ore zones (chalcocite-chlorite, bornite-calcite, galena-calcite, chalcopyrite-ankerite, and pyrite-calcite), but not in more distant zones across the region. Thirty-two in situ SHRIMP U-Pb analyses on xenotime overgrowths yield a weighted average of 207Pb/206Pb ages of 1409 ± 8 Ma, interpreted as the time of mineralization. This age is about 40 to 60 m.y. after deposition of the Revett Formation. Six other xenotime overgrowths formed during a younger event at 1304 ± 19 Ma. Several isolated grains of xenotime have 207Pb/206Pb ages in the range of 1.67 to 1.51 Ga, and thus are considered detrital in origin. Trace element data can distinguish Spar Lake xenotimes of different origins. Based on in situ SHRIMP analysis, detrital xenotime has heavy rare earth elements-enriched patterns similar to those of igneous xenotime, whereas xenotime overgrowths of inferred hydrothermal origin have hump-shaped (i.e., middle rare earth elements-enriched) patterns. The two ages of hydrothermal xenotime can be distinguished by slightly different rare earth elements patterns. In addition, 1409 Ma xenotime overgrowths have higher Eu and Gd contents than the 1304 Ma overgrowths. Most xenotime overgrowths from the Spar Lake deposit have elevated As concentrations, further suggesting a genetic relationship between the xenotime formation and Cu-Ag mineralization.

  1. RISK ANALYSIS, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: GETTING MORE FROM OUR DATA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression are common statistical techniques used to analyze agronomic experimental data and determine significant differences among yields due to treatments or other experimental factors. Risk analysis provides an alternate and complimentary examination of the same...

  2. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  3. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  4. Services Cost Analysis Under Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Golea Pompiliu; Balogh Petru

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, an integrated approach based on Monte Carlo simulation and Six Sigma methodology is used to analyze the risk associated with a services cost. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to understand the variability in total cost caused by the probabilistic cost items. By Six Sigma methodology the range of variation of the service cost can be reduced by operating on the input factors with the greatest impact on total cost to cover the variation of 6s between the limits that were establis...

  5. Project cost analysis under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florica LUBAN

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integrated approach based on Monte Carlo simulation and Six Sigma methodology is used to analyze the risk associated with a project's total cost. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to understand the variability in total cost caused by the probabilistic cost items. By Six Sigma methodology the range of variation of the project cost can be reduced by operating on the input factors with the greatest impact on total cost to cover the variation of 6 between the limits that were established in the design phase of Six Sigma.

  6. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  7. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  8. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  9. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  10. Application of intelligent materials to enhance SPAR floating offshore platforms stability

    OpenAIRE

    Rius Planas, Maria

    2010-01-01

    The following thesis presents a stability study of a floating wind turbine platform, composed by two concentric cylinders, for offshore application. The theoretical bases of the linear theory and the derivation of the equation of motion are introduced in the second chapter. The following chapter resumes the results of the research of the optimum dimensions as well as the results of the simulation of the equation of motion of the spar with and without inertial plate. The addition of the ine...

  11. Variable Torque Control of Offshore Wind Turbine on Spar Floating Platform Using Advanced RBF Neural Network

    OpenAIRE

    Lei Wang; Shan Zuo; Y. D. Song; Zheng Zhou

    2014-01-01

    Offshore floating wind turbine (OFWT) has been a challenging research spot because of the high-quality wind power and complex load environment. This paper focuses on the research of variable torque control of offshore wind turbine on Spar floating platform. The control objective in below-rated wind speed region is to optimize the output power by tracking the optimal tip-speed ratio and ideal power curve. Aiming at the external disturbances and nonlinear uncertain dynamic systems of OFWT becau...

  12. Analysis and estimation of risk management methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kankhva Vadim Sergeevich

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available At the present time risk management is an integral part of state policy in all the countries with developed market economy. Companies dealing with consulting services and implementation of the risk management systems carve out a niche. Unfortunately, conscious preventive risk management in Russia is still far from the level of standardized process of a construction company activity, which often leads to scandals and disapproval in case of unprofessional implementation of projects. The authors present the results of the investigation of the modern understanding of the existing methodology classification and offer the authorial concept of classification matrix of risk management methods. Creation of the developed matrix is based on the analysis of the method in the context of incoming and outgoing transformed information, which may include different elements of risk control stages. So the offered approach allows analyzing the possibilities of each method.

  13. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results

  14. HACCP and risk analysis in global

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uhlenhopps Eldon K.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent public concern regarding food safety, and the implementation of Global regulations and agreements on trade, have given rise to questions regarding the veterinarian’s role and expertise in formally assessing and mitigating these risk. The objective of this work is to demonstrate latest knowledge on Risk Analysis as a process, to review HACCP with regard to food safety and defense against introduction of infectious agents.

  15. SPAR X Technical Report for Experiment 76-22 Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bethin, J.

    1984-01-01

    The effects of gravity on Bridgman-Stockbarger directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi were studied in reduced gravity aboard the SPAR X flight and compared to normal-gravity investigations and previous eutectic Bi/MnBi SPAR flight experiments. The directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi results in either a dendritic structure connected with local cooperative growth or a coupled low volume fraction faceted/non faceted aligned rod eutectic whose Mn macrosegregation, MnBi rod size, interrod spacing, and thermal and magnetic properties are sensitive functions of the solidification processing conditions. Two hypoeutectic and two hypereutectic samples were solidified during 605 sec of furnace travel, with an initial 265 sec low-gravity interval. Comparison Earth-gravity samples were solidified in the same furance assembly under identical processing conditions. Macrosegregation in the low-g samples was consistent with a metastable increase in Mn solubility in the Bi matrix, in partial agreement with previous Bi/MnBi SPAR findings of MnBi volume reduction.

  16. Demonstration of Enabling Spar-Shell Cooling Technology in Gas Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downs, James [Florida Turbine Technologies Inc., Jupiter, FL (United States)

    2014-12-29

    In this Advanced Turbine Program-funded Phase III project, Florida Turbine Technologies, Inc. (FTT) has developed and tested, at a pre-commercial prototypescale, spar-shell turbine airfoils in a commercial gas turbine. The airfoil development is based upon FTT’s research and development to date in Phases I and II of Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) grants. During this program, FTT has partnered with an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Siemens Energy, to produce sparshell turbine components for the first pre-commercial prototype test in an F-Class industrial gas turbine engine and has successfully completed validation testing. This project will further the commercialization of this new technology in F-frame and other highly cooled turbine airfoil applications. FTT, in cooperation with Siemens, intends to offer the spar-shell vane as a first-tier supplier for retrofit applications and new large frame industrial gas turbines. The market for the spar-shell vane for these machines is huge. According to Forecast International, 3,211 new gas turbines units (in the >50MW capacity size range) will be ordered in ten years from 2007 to 2016. FTT intends to enter the market in a low rate initial production. After one year of successful extended use, FTT will quickly ramp up production and sales, with a target to capture 1% of the market within the first year and 10% within 5 years (2020).

  17. Quantitative risks analysis of maritime terminal petrochemical

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, Leandro Silveira; Leal, Cesar A. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica (PROMEC)]. E-mail: leandro19889900@yahoo.com.br

    2008-07-01

    This work consists of the application of a computer program (RISKAN) developed for studies of quantification of industrial risks and also a revision of the models used in the program. As part the evaluation made, a test was performed with the application of the computer program to estimate the risks for a marine terminal for storage of petrochemical products, in the city of Rio Grande, Brazil. Thus, as part of the work, it was performed a Quantitative Risk Analysis associated to the terminal, both for the workers and for the population nearby, with a verification of acceptability using the tolerability limits established by the State Licensing Agency (FEPAM-RS). In the risk analysis methodology used internationally, the most used way of presenting results of social risks is in the graphical form with the use of the FN curves and for the individual risk it is common the use of the iso-risk curves traced on the map of the area where is the plant. In the beginning of the study, both a historical analysis of accidents and use of the technique of Preliminary Analysis of Risks were made in order to aid in the process of identification of the possible scenarios of accidents related to the activities in the terminal. After identifying the initiating events, their frequencies or probabilities of occurrence were estimated and followed by the calculations of the physical effects and deaths, with the use, inside the computer program, of published models of Prins Mauritz Laboratory and of American Institute of Chemical Engineers. The average social risk obtained for the external populations was of 8.7x10{sup -7} fatality.year{sup -1} and for the internal population (people working inside the terminal), 3.2x10{sup -4} fatality.year-1. The accident scenario that most contributed to the social risk was death due to exposure to the thermal radiation caused by pool fire, with 84.3% of the total estimated for external populations and 82.9% for the people inside the terminal. The

  18. Economic analysis of safety risks in construction

    OpenAIRE

    Teresa Bourbon; Fernando Santos; Alfredo Soeiro

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study revolves around the analysis of the safety risks involved with one construction project, and the respective economic effects of risk prevention and safety management. As a result of the co-ordination of systems, and harmonising of work between the Project Leader, Safety Co-ordinator and Contractor, an adequate strategy was developed for the safety of the project Escola de Ciências da Saúde da Universidade do Minho. The risk evaluation is carried out in simulated fo...

  19. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahearne, J.F. [The Sigma XI Center, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1999-12-01

    safer systems. However, the decision-makers and their advisors have lagged in going beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions. Whether it is a case like Brent Spar here in Europe or Yucca Mountain in the United States, significant lessons can be learned on how to make decisions in democratic societies.

  20. BANKS IN EQUITY MARKET - A RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.S.Nemavathi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Equity market is often considered as the main engine driving the economy. Inemerging countries, equity market plays a vital role in economic development. Manyemerging markets, firms would need large quantum of fund to expand and be able to pursuethe prevalent high growth rates. Equity market is the only liquid financial market in manyemerging countries and hence its role in economic development cannot be overemphasized.In addition, all over the world, financial markets are getting less insular. The investors indeveloped countries are seeking investment opportunities beyond the confines of theirdomestic economy to enhance return and diversify risks. The investment in stock involvesmany risks. The investors have to carry analysis before investing in any stocks. Most of theinvestors are unaware about the analysis to be carried out before investing. This studyinvolves analysis of earnings per share, price to earnings and analysis of risk through betavalue, of the banks in equity market. Technical analysis helps the investor to know whetherthe stock is in over sold region or over bought region and to find any trend reversals. Basedon these analysis investor can make buy or sell decision. The researcher concludes that themaximum return is based on the maximum risk in which the investor is going to face.

  1. Competence Set Analysis Under Risk and Uncertainty

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.

  2. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  3. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or maintained by VA occurs and the Secretary has not determined... personal information, if any. (c) Assessment of the potential harm to the affected individuals. (d)...

  4. Risk-driven security testing using risk analysis with threat modeling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Palanivel, Maragathavalli; Selvadurai, Kanmani

    2014-01-01

    Security testing is a process of determining risks present in the system states and protects them from vulnerabilities. But security testing does not provide due importance to threat modeling and risk analysis simultaneously that affects confidentiality and integrity of the system. Risk analysis includes identification, evaluation and assessment of risks. Threat modeling approach is identifying threats associated with the system. Risk-driven security testing uses risk analysis results in test...

  5. Selected Tools for Risk Analysis in Logistics Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulińska, Ewa

    2012-03-01

    As each organization aims at managing effective logistics processes, risk factors can and should be controlled through proper system of risk management. Implementation of complex approach to risk management allows for the following: - evaluation of significant risk groups associated with logistics processes implementation, - composition of integrated strategies of risk management, - composition of tools for risk analysis in logistics processes.

  6. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative influence of model risk on risk management with a main focus on regulation issues. We present frameworks for measuring model risk and backtesting procedures for evaluating model quality. Furthermore, ...

  7. Resistant Hypertension and Obstructive Sleep Apnea: The Sparring Partners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Costas Thomopoulos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Enhanced target organ damage and cardiovascular morbidity represent common issues observed in both resistant hypertension and obstructive sleep apnea. Common pathophysiological features and risk factors justify their coexistence, especially in individuals with increased upper-body adiposity. Impaired sodium handling, sympathetic activation, accelerated arterial stiffening, and impaired cardiorenal hemodynamics contribute to drug-resistant hypertension development in obstructive sleep apnea. Effective CPAP therapy qualifies as an effective “add-on” to the underlying antihypertensive pharmacological therapy, and emerging evidence underlines the favorable effect of mineralocorticoid antagonists on both resistant hypertension and obstructive sleep apnea treatment.

  8. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  9. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  10. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  11. Risk analysis for confined space entries: Critical analysis of four tools applied to three risk scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burlet-Vienney, Damien; Chinniah, Yuvin; Bahloul, Ali; Roberge, Brigitte

    2016-06-01

    Investigation reports of fatal confined space accidents nearly always point to a problem of identifying or underestimating risks. This paper compares 4 different risk analysis tools developed for confined spaces by applying them to 3 hazardous scenarios. The tools were namely 1. a checklist without risk estimation (Tool A), 2. a checklist with a risk scale (Tool B), 3. a risk calculation without a formal hazard identification stage (Tool C), and 4. a questionnaire followed by a risk matrix (Tool D). Each tool's structure and practical application were studied. Tools A and B gave crude results comparable to those of more analytic tools in less time. Their main limitations were lack of contextual information for the identified hazards and greater dependency on the user's expertise and ability to tackle hazards of different nature. Tools C and D utilized more systematic approaches than tools A and B by supporting risk reduction based on the description of the risk factors. Tool D is distinctive because of 1. its comprehensive structure with respect to the steps suggested in risk management, 2. its dynamic approach to hazard identification, and 3. its use of data resulting from the risk analysis. PMID:26864350

  12. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  13. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mo Chongxun; Liu Fanggui; Yu Mei; Ma Rongyong; Sun Guikai

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  14. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  15. Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

    2015-02-28

    The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms. PMID:25583870

  16. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP)

  17. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rasmuson, D M [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  18. Optimal Topology of Aircraft Rib and Spar Structures under Aeroelastic Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanford, Bret K.; Dunning, Peter D.

    2014-01-01

    Several topology optimization problems are conducted within the ribs and spars of a wing box. It is desired to locate the best position of lightening holes, truss/cross-bracing, etc. A variety of aeroelastic metrics are isolated for each of these problems: elastic wing compliance under trim loads and taxi loads, stress distribution, and crushing loads. Aileron effectiveness under a constant roll rate is considered, as are dynamic metrics: natural vibration frequency and flutter. This approach helps uncover the relationship between topology and aeroelasticity in subsonic transport wings, and can therefore aid in understanding the complex aircraft design process which must eventually consider all these metrics and load cases simultaneously.

  19. Calibration and Validation of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Model using the FAST Dynamic Simulation Tool: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2012-11-01

    In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states.

  20. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  1. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  2. Risk Analysis of Safety-Critical Control Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Karol Rastocny

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with problems associated with risks analysis of a safety-critical control system. In the paper there are introduced recommendations enabling practical enforceability of risk analysis by the assurance of sufficient objectivity level. In the initial phases of the system lifecycle risk analysis serves for a tolerable hazard rate definition for individual safety relevant functions. In the end of the control system development process the risk analysis (an analysis of failures con...

  3. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative inf

  4. 奥地利SPAR公司肉制品物流系统%TANN logistics system of SPAR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    奥地利SPAR Osterreichische warenhandels AG公司(原名SPAR Tyrol/Pinzgan贸易协会)创设于1954年,1970年兼并了10家批发公司后改为现名,目前已发展成为奥地利最大的工商业企业,其经营范围涉及各种食品的批发和零售,同时生产肉制品、香肠、葡萄酒、烈酒、咖啡和茶。

  5. Sound bites, science and the Brent Spar: environmental considerations relevant to the deep-sea disposal option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenpeace's high profile press campaign against the deep-sea disposal of the redundant Brent Spar oil platform has focussed attention on the need for greater knowledge of deep ocean ecology. Scientists from the Scottish Association for Marine Science, and the Institute of Oceanographic Sciences opposed Greenpeace's campaign and used the controversy to examine these issues more fully, highlighting errors and deficiencies in Shell's reports and press and Greenpeace publications. They conclude that the one-off deep-sea disposal of the Brent Spar might not be the environmental catastrophe anticipated. (Author)

  6. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  7. Analysis of Operational Risks in Shipbuilding Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela MATEI

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Our paper emphasizes the opportunities provided both for the academic research and companies by using a proposed model of analyzing the operational risks within business in general and shipbuilding industry in particular. The model aims to display the loss distribution from the operational risk for each business line/ type of event, based on frequency and severity estimation of the events. These estimations are derived mainly from the history logs of internal loss events. The calculations extend over a certain period of time in the future with a certain level of confidence. It should also be mentioned that the proposed model estimates unexpected losses, without making any suppositions concerning the values of the expected and unexpected losses. Several ideas could be extracted by analyzing and synthesizing the theoretical models from available literature. These ideas were analyzed in order to develop a model for operational risk analysis that is adapted to shipbuilding. This paper describes a new model, which can be applied to the naval industry to quantify operational risks.

  8. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  9. Risk analysis of lymphocytopenia with temozolomide radiochemotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Temozolomide (TMZ) and concomitant radiotherapy are often used to treat newly diagnosed glioma, followed by adjuvant therapy. TMZ causes severe lymphocytopenia, thereby increasing the risk of opportunistic infection (OI). We analyzed the risk factors of lymphocytopenia. Between October 2006 and December 2009, we examined 43 patients aged between 22 and 83 years (average age, 64 years) with primary glioblastoma (n=32), anaplastic oligoastrocytoma (n=4), anaplastic astrocytoma (n=2), anaplastic oligodendroglioma (n=2), anaplastic ependymoma (n=2), and unknown tumor (n=1). The patients received a combination of postoperative radiotherapy (5 days per week for 6 weeks; total dose, 60 Gy) and daily oral TMZ (75 mg/m2; 42 days). A total of 37 Out of 43 patients completed combined radiochemotherapy. Hematologic toxicities were graded according to the Common Toxicity Criteria version 4.0: leukopenia grade 3/4, 9%; neutropenia grade 3/4, 7%; lymphopenia grade 3/4, 61%. The non-hematological toxicities observed were as follows: fatigue, 83%; nausea, 74%; and vomiting, 33%. Multivariate analysis results suggest the following lymophocytopenia risk factors: female, body weight loss, and on trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. These results suggest that risk factors can predict severe lymphopenia during TMZ and concomitant radiotherapy. (author)

  10. Econometric Analysis of Financial Data in Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Fantazzini, Dean

    2009-01-01

    This part completes the consultation series of Dean Fantazzini dealing with econometric analysis of financial data in credit risk management. Particularly, analysis of multidimensional credit risk models is continued from the previous discussion

  11. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  12. Empirical analysis on risk of security investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    AN Peng; LI Sheng-hong

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyzes the theory and application of Markowitz Mean-Variance Model and CAPM model. Firstly, it explains the development process and standpoints of two models and deduces the whole process in detail. Then 30 stocks are choosen from Shangzheng 50 stocks and are testified whether the prices of Shanghai stocks conform to the two models. With the technique of time series and panel data analysis, the research on the stock risk and effective portfolio by ORIGIN and MATLAB software is conducted. The result shows that Shanghai stock market conforms to Markowitz Mean-Variance Model to a certain extent and can give investors reliable suggestion to gain higher return, but there is no positive relation between system risk and profit ratio and CAPM doesn't function well in China's security market.

  13. FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Robin K.

    1976-01-01

    A program for seismic risk analysis is described which combines generality of application, efficiency and accuracy of operation, and the advantage of small storage requirements. The theoretical basis for the program is first reviewed, and the computational algorithms used to apply this theory are described. The information required for running the program is listed. Published attenuation functions describing the variation with earthquake magnitude and distance of expected values for various ground motion parameters are summarized for reference by the program user. Finally, suggestions for use of the program are made, an example problem is described (along with example problem input and output) and the program is listed.

  14. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  15. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss;

    2012-01-01

    In response to the challenges of conducting traditional human health and ecological risk assessment for nanomaterials (NM), a number of alternative frameworks have been proposed for NM risk analysis. This paper evaluates various risk analysis frameworks proposed for NM based on a number of criteria...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....... to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...

  16. FJS I and C equipment technical risk analysis and strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During equipment manufacturing period of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant Expansion Project (Fangjiashan Nu clear Power Project), according to the FJS I and C equipment risk information, FJS owner's I and C staff classify the I and C equipment risk level, identify high risk level equipment and major technical risks, predictively conduct FJS I and C equipment risk analysis and make risk management strategy, take effective measurements, especially for DCS, TPCS and FSS. The important I and C equipment risk is known and under control, the risk level can be lowered, and this contributes to the technical quality of FJS I and C equipment. (author)

  17. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  18. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  19. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  20. CFD Simulation of the Vertical Motion Characteristics of the Moonpool Fluid for the Truss Spar

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bin Wang; Liqin Liu; Yougang Tang

    2014-01-01

    The research purpose of this paper is to estimate the impacts of the parameters of the guide plate on the vertical motion characteristics of the moonpool fluid. With the volume of fluid (VOF) method, three-dimensional models of the moonpool fluid motions of the truss spar platform are established. Simulation results are then presented for the moonpool forced oscillation by employing the dynamic mesh method and user-defined functions in FLUENT. The motions of the moonpool fluid and the loads on the guide plates are obtained for both cases of square-ring and crisscross. The results show that the shape and area of the guide plate at the bottom of the moonpool have a significant impact on the physical parameters of the moonpool, including the load on the moonpool guide plate, motion form of the moonpool fluid and the mass flow rate.

  1. CFD simulation of the vertical motion characteristics of the moonpool fluid for the truss spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Liu, Liqin; Tang, Yougang

    2014-03-01

    The research purpose of this paper is to estimate the impacts of the parameters of the guide plate on the vertical motion characteristics of the moonpool fluid. With the volume of fluid (VOF) method, three-dimensional models of the moonpool fluid motions of the truss spar platform are established. Simulation results are then presented for the moonpool forced oscillation by employing the dynamic mesh method and user-defined functions in FLUENT. The motions of the moonpool fluid and the loads on the guide plates are obtained for both cases of square-ring and crisscross. The results show that the shape and area of the guide plate at the bottom of the moonpool have a significant impact on the physical parameters of the moonpool, including the load on the moonpool guide plate, motion form of the moonpool fluid and the mass flow rate.

  2. Classification and treatment of LSA-sludge from the Brent Spar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessments of the levels of radioactivity in sludge from the Brent Spar storage tanks have been performed. Based on field and laboratory measurements, only 44 drums (of a total of 2268 drums) were identified as drums with 226Ra concentrations above the exemption level of 10 Bq/g given by the Authorities. Field measurements showed satisfactorily agreement with laboratory measurements. The drums containing radioactivity concentrations below the exemption level were classified as non-radioactive and shipped to Sloevaeg Industriservice AS for incineration. Only small amounts of radioactivity were found in the ashes after incineration. The concentrations in the offgas and the outlet water were below or close to the detection limit for gamma spectrometry. Incineration of sludge with activity concentrations below the exemption level was found to be a well-suited method for disposal. (orig.)

  3. Risk analysis : a need to communicate

    OpenAIRE

    Renn, Ortwin

    1989-01-01

    Effective communication does not mean luring people into accepting risks that they fear or hope to avoid. It means, however, giving people the tools to understand and participate in debates about risk and risk sources. The major goal of risk communication is to enhance understanding, to develop mutual respect, and to acknowledge conflicting values in the decisionmaking process. Ultimately, risk communication should provide a platform for rational conflict resolution and effective, democratic ...

  4. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  5. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  6. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  7. An Experimental Investigation of the Responses of Classic Spar Platform Subjected to Bi-directional Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.J. Kurian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of the bi-directional short-crested waves on the dynamic motion responses of the moored classic spar is demonstrated from the results of the models test in this study. Practically in the design of offshore structures, long-crested or 2-dimensional wave properties that propagated to one direction are considered. Even though such long-crested wave is widely used for the design purposes, it is hardly determined in the real sea. The wind generated sea state in the real sea conditions are indeed well represented by the short-crested waves. Short-crested waves are defined as linear summation of long-crested wave series that propagated to different directions. Hence, the motions of the model were investigated experimentally by conducting the wave tank tests in the wave tank of Offshore Laboratory of Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS. Five groups of bi-directional wave series were defined and exerted on the classic spar model, which fabricated by using steel with scaling factor of 1:100. From the results measured, it was found that similar trends of the responses in term of Response Amplitude Operator (RAO for surge, heave and pitch motions were obtained. Maximum responses of surge, heave and pitch were found due to wave crossing angle 90°, while minimum response was found due to wave crossing angle 135°, respectively. It could be concluded that the wave crossing angle 90° (BD3 gives the widest spreading for short crested waves, while the wave crossing angle 135° (BD4 gives the narrowest spreading for short crested waves.

  8. Modeling of Safety Functions in Quantitative Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Thien Duy

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative risk analysis in the offshore industry is mandated by the Norwegian legislation. A literature survey is carried out, related to the current legislation from the Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) and supporting NORSOK standards. Process accidents on offshore installations, operating on the Norwegian continental shelf are emphasized. A risk picture is the synthesis of a risk assessment, describing the risk level. Requirements to the risk picture are discussed, and associat...

  9. Comparative analysis of credit risk models for loan portfolios.

    OpenAIRE

    Han, C

    2014-01-01

    This study is distinct from previous studies in its inclusion of new models, consideration of sector correlation and performance of comprehensive sensitivity analysis. CreditRisk++, CreditMetrics, the Basel II internal-ratings-based method and the Mercer Oliver Wyman model are considered. Risk factor distribution and the relationship between risk components and risk factors are the key distinguishing characteristics of each model. CreditRisk++, due to its extra degree of freedom, has the high...

  10. Managing Software Project Risks (Analysis Phase) with Proposed Fuzzy Regression Analysis Modelling Techniques with Fuzzy Concepts

    OpenAIRE

    Elzamly, Abdelrafe; Hussin, Burairah

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to propose new mining techniques by which we can study the impact of different risk management techniques and different software risk factors on software analysis development projects. The new mining technique uses the fuzzy multiple regression analysis techniques with fuzzy concepts to manage the software risks in a software project and mitigating risk with software process improvement. Top ten software risk factors in analysis phase and thirty risk management techni...

  11. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  12. Risk analysis in nuclear energy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In nuclear energy like other energy sources risk is present. The risk assessment and comparison with proposed risk criteria in nuclear energy user country, need to be measured for nuclear power plant site selection, construction, operation and maintenance. Experience of long-term nuclear energy user countries need to be used in the risk assesment and criteria creation. In article are shown results of risk assessment in many human activities. Nuclear power plants accidents categorization is given. There are accidents shown which occurred at nuclear power plants. Basic information about probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant site evaluation are given. (author)

  13. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  14. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence comp

  15. Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk Based Inspection analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhus, Torben Lund; Hillier, Elizabeth; Andersen, Erlend S.

    2016-01-01

    Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. In order to manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk Based Inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used in the of...

  16. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxime Frydman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  17. Comparative analysis of enterprise risk management models

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolaev Igor V.

    2012-01-01

    The article is devoted to the analysis and the comparison of modern enterprise risk management models used in domestic and world practice. Some thesis to build such a model are proposed.Статья посвящена анализу и сравнению современных моделей управления рисками предприятий, которые используются в отечественной и зарубежной практике. Предложены некоторые положения, на которых должны базироваться такие модели....

  18. Corporate Risk Disclosure: A Content Analysis of Swedish Interim Reports

    OpenAIRE

    Khaledi, Soheila

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this research is to examine the determinants of the level of corporate risk disclosure (CRD) in the interim reports of Swedish non-financial companies. A quantitative research approach is used, the sample data of which consist of 166 firms with 4,849 interim reports over a 10-year period. By utilizing the notion of risk and its definition, I have distinguished three categories of risk, namely risk as uncertainty, risk as threat and risk as opportunity. A systematic content analysis...

  19. Network analysis using organizational risk analyzer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The tool system of the organizational risk analyzer (ORA) to study the network of East Turkistan terrorists is selected. The model of the relationships among its personnel, knowledge, resources and task entities is represented by the meta-matrix in ORA, with which to analyze the risks and vulnerabilities of organizational structure quantitatively, and obtain the last vulnerabilities and risks of the organization. Case study in this system shows that it should be a shortcut to destroy effectively the network...

  20. Risk analysis: toward a standard method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The wide range of claims about the comparative risks of energy technologies is due as much to the immature development of the risk-assessment trade as to the scarcity of health and accident statistics. The risks of different systems often are not only compared inconsistently, but are calculated in a manner inappropriate to the decisions being made about energy technologies. Without a carefully constructed and agreed-upon framework for tabulating risks, it is possible to come to nearly any conclusion about comparative hazards. However, adherence to a few straightforward rules (some borrowed from financial accounting) is sufficient to ensure consistency

  1. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    High-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities

  2. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    High-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.

  3. UML based risk analysis - Application to a medical robot

    OpenAIRE

    Guiochet, Jérémie; Baron, Claude

    2004-01-01

    Medical robots perform complex tasks and share their working area with humans. Therefore , they belong to safety critical systems. In nowadays development process, safety is often managed by the way of dependability techniques. We propose a new global approach , based on the risk concept in order to guide designers along the safety analysis of such complex systems. Safety depends on risk management activity, which core is risk analysis. This one consists in three steps: system definition, haz...

  4. Risk Analysis of Business Intelligence in Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Alsufyani, Raed; Chang, Victor

    2015-01-01

    The paper discusses the issues of risk analysis of Business Intelligence on the basis of Cloud platforms. The study gives an account on various aspects of the issue such as benefits and risks, financial appliance, and a factual process of data analysis. The paper attempts to address the issue in terms of empirical knowledge as long as numerous organizations face difficulties concerning appropriate application of Business Intelligence in the Cloud environment for purposes of risk forecasting a...

  5. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  6. Hydrodynamic Comparison of a Semi-submersible, TLP, and Spar: Numerical Study in the South China Sea Environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Binbin Li; Kun Liu; Gongwei Yan; Jinping Ou

    2011-01-01

    The South China Sea contains tremendous oil and gas resources in deepwater areas.However,one of the keys for deepwater exploration,the investigation of deepwater floating platforms,is very inadequate.In this paper,the authors studied and compared the hydrodynamics and global motion behaviors of typical deepwater platforms in the South China Sea environment.The hydrodynamic models of three main types of floating platforms,e.g.the Semi-submersible,tension leg platform (TLP),and Truss Spar,which could potentially be utilized in the South China Sea,were established by using the 3-D potential theory.Additionally,some important considerations which significantly influence the hydrodynamics were given.The RAOs in frequency domains as well as global motions in time domains under time-varying wind,random waves,and current in 100-y,10-y,and 1-y return period environment conditions were predicted,compared,and analyzed.The results indicate that the heave and especially the pitch motion of the TLP are favorable.The heave response of the Truss Spar is perfect and comparable with that of the TLP when the peak period of random waves is low.However,the pitch motion of Truss Spar is extraordinarily larger than that of Semi-submersible and TLP.

  7. Science Based Governance? EU Food Regulation Submitted to Risk Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Szajkowska, A.; Meulen, van der B.M.J.

    2014-01-01

    Anna Szajkowska and Bernd van der Meulen analyse in their contribution, Science Based Governance? EU Food Regulation Submitted to Risk Analysis, the scope of application of risk analysis and the precautionary principle in EU food safety regulation. To what extent does this technocratic, science-base

  8. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  9. The Operational Risk – Comparative Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriela Victoria Anghelache; Ana Cornelia Olteanu

    2009-01-01

    In many cases operational risks tend to be underestimated, considering that the losses they cause are generally minor can’t threatening the survival of a bank. Losses resulting from these events come from a complex interaction between organizational factors, personal and market that do not fit into a simple classification scheme. Observing what happened in the past we can say that operational risk is an important question of the financial losses in the banking sector.

  10. Truss Spar平台简介%An introduction of Truss Spar Platform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐琦

    2002-01-01

    Truss spar平台是传统spar平台的一个变种,如图1所示.它是一种深吃水圆柱结构.世界上第一座spar平台于1996年8月在2000英尺水深的墨西哥湾安装.第一座Truss spar平台,Kerr McGee(柯麦奇)Nansen and Boomvang,于2001年安装于墨西哥湾.Spar平台的最新进展是BP的Holstein、Mad Dog以及Murphy的Front Runner.所有的己交付的或近期将要交付使用的Truss spar平台都在墨西哥湾.图2显示了由CSO-Aker已交付的或正在交付的spar.其中最后一个称为多管式spar的是第三代Truss spar平台,它已经被Kerr Magee的Red Hawk项目采用.本文将对Truss spar平台的技术进行简要介绍.

  11. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  12. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  13. Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

    2010-01-01

    A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

  14. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  15. Commercial Bank Risk Management: An Analysis of the Process

    OpenAIRE

    Anthony M. Santomero

    1997-01-01

    Throughout the past year, on-site visits to financial service firms were conducted to review and evaluate their financial risk management systems. The commercial banking analysis covered a number of North American super-regionals and quasi-money center institutions as well as several firms outside the U.S. The information obtained covered both the philosophy and practice of financial risk management. This paper outlines the results of this investigation. It reports the state of risk managemen...

  16. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    OpenAIRE

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks...

  17. Panel Random Analysis of Credit Risk in Business

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Wei; ZHOU Yue-mei; ZHOU Ke

    2005-01-01

    Market economy is a kind of credit economy.The survival and development of an individual in the society are closely related with his credit. Without credit, market economy can not continue, the society can hardly run in good order and good health. This paper defines the basic concept of trade credit risk with its manifestation and brings forward the basic mode quantitatively analyzing the credit risk. The data structure of information is analyzed, the decomposition model of credit risk is structured and with the aid of statistical analysis, including regression analysis, analysis of variance, test of hypothesized, the description, classification, certification and confirmation of credit risk model are completed, then, we can describe and control the credit risk with the model to provide basis when building credit support system in today's society.

  18. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  19. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  20. Import risk analysis: the experience of Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporale, V; Giovannini, A; Calistri, P; Conte, A

    1999-12-01

    The authors propose a contribution to the possible revision of Chapters 1.4.1. and 1.4.2. of the International Animal Health Code (Code) of the Office International des Epizooties (OIE). In particular, data are presented to illustrate some of the inadequacies of both the rationale and the results of the method for risk assessment reported in the Code. The method suggested by the Code for risk assessment is based on the calculation of the 'probability of the occurrence of at least one outbreak' of a given disease following the importation of a given quantity of either live animals or animal products (unrestricted risk estimate). This is usually undertaken when dealing with rare events. For a country such as Italy, this method may not be particularly useful as the frequency of disease outbreaks is what should be estimated, so as to provide decision makers with appropriate and relevant information. Practical use of risk information generated by the use of the OIE risk assessment method for swine vesicular disease (SVD) would have encouraged the Chief Veterinary Officer of Italy to prohibit all imports of swine from the Netherlands and Belgium for at least two years in the early 1990s, with the consequential heavy economic losses for both Italy and the exporting countries. On the contrary, the number of actual outbreaks of the disease due to direct imports of swine from Member States of the European Union (EU), which occurred in Italy in 1992, 1993 and 1994 was very low (two to five outbreaks due to direct imports of swine from the Netherlands and one to two from Belgium). An example of a method for assessing the risks associated with high volumes of trade in commodities is also described. This method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation and provides the information required to evaluate the costs of the strategies compared. The method can be used to predict the number of outbreaks which are likely to occur following importation and enables a comparison to be made of

  1. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  2. Software Speeds Up Analysis of Breast Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_161117.html Software Speeds Up Analysis of Breast Cancer Risk: Study ... 22, 2016 THURSDAY, Sept. 22, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Software that quickly analyzes mammograms and patient history to ...

  3. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  4. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  5. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  6. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, and by comparing the model results with an epidemiological study of the same event, the concept of using hydrological models to estimate water quality – and thereby estimate risk – was improved. Another urban flooding risk assessment used average measured concentrations of pathogens in wastewater as inputs......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...

  7. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  8. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  9. Schedule Risk Analysis Simulator using Beta Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isha Sharma,

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an application of simulation and Modelling in Software risk management. This paper describes a simulation based software risk management tool which helps manager to identifyhigh risk areas of software process. In this paper an endeavour has been made to build up a Stochastic Simulator which helps in decision making to identify the critical activities which are given due priorities during the development of Software Project. In response to new information or revised estimates, it may be necessary to reassign resources, cancel optional tasks, etc. Project management tools that make projections while treating decisions about tasks and resource assignments as static will not yield realistic results. The usual PERT procedure may lead to overly optimistic results as many pass which are not critical but slightly shorter than critical on the basis of estimated activity duration or average durations.Due to randomness of durations, these pass under some combination of activity durations, could become longer than the average longest path. Such paths would be ignored while using the PERT technique onthe basis of the average durations. In order to overcome this problem and be more reasonable, the said Stochastic Simulator has been designed by generating random samples from a specific probabilitydistribution associated with that particular activity of SPM. The said simulator is also not bugged with overly estimated results.

  10. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  11. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  12. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  13. The semantic distinction between "risk" and "danger": a linguistic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boholm, Max

    2012-02-01

    The analysis combines frame semantic and corpus linguistic approaches in analyzing the role of agency and decision making in the semantics of the words "risk" and "danger" (both nominal and verbal uses). In frame semantics, the meanings of "risk" and of related words, such as "danger," are analyzed against the background of a specific cognitive-semantic structure (a frame) comprising frame elements such as Protagonist, Bad Outcome, Decision, Possession, and Source. Empirical data derive from the British National Corpus (100 million words). Results indicate both similarities and differences in use. First, both "risk" and "danger" are commonly used to represent situations having potential negative consequences as the result of agency. Second, "risk" and "danger," especially their verbal uses (to risk, to endanger), differ in agent-victim structure, i.e., "risk" is used to express that a person affected by an action is also the agent of the action, while "endanger" is used to express that the one affected is not the agent. Third, "risk," but not "danger," tends to be used to represent rational and goal-directed action. The results therefore to some extent confirm the analysis of "risk" and "danger" suggested by German sociologist Niklas Luhmann. As a point of discussion, the present findings arguably have implications for risk communication.

  14. A Project Risk Ranking Approach Based on Set Pair Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Feng; Chen Yingwu

    2006-01-01

    Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is a new methodology to describe and process system uncertainty. It is different from stochastic or fuzzy methods in reasoning and operation, and it has been applied in many areas recently. In this paper, the application of SPA in risk ranking is presented, which includes review of risk ranking, introduction of Connecting Degree (CD) that is a key role in SPA., Arithmetic and Tendency Grade (TG) of CDs, and a risk ranking approach proposed. Finally a case analysis is presented to illustrate the reasonability of this approach. It is found that this approach is very convenient to operate, while the ranking result is more comprehensible.

  15. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process.

  16. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  17. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  18. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability

  19. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures. PMID:27575259

  20. Development of a risk-analysis model. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-10-01

    This report consists of a main body, which provides a presentation of risk analysis and its general and specific application to the needs of the Office of Buildings and Community Systems of the Department of Energy; and several case studies employing the risk-analysis model developed. The highlights include a discussion of how risk analysis is currently used in the private, regulated, and public sectors and how this methodology can be employed to meet the policy-analysis needs of the Office of Buildings and Community Systems of the Department of Energy (BCS/DOE). After a review of the primary methodologies available for risk analysis, it was determined that Monte Carlo simulation techniques provide the greatest degree of visibility into uncertainty in the decision-making process. Although the data-collection requirements can be demanding, the benefits, when compared to other methods, are substantial. The data-collection problem can be significantly reduced, without sacrificing proprietary-information rights, if prior arrangements are made with RD and D contractors to provide responses to reasonable requests for base-case data. A total of three case studies were performed on BCS technologies: a gas-fired heat pump; a 1000 ton/day anaerobic digestion plant; and a district heating and cooling system. The three case studies plus the risk-analysis methodology were issued as separate reports. It is concluded that, based on the overall research of risk analysis and the case-study experience, that the risk-analysis methodology has significant potential as a policy-evaluation tool within BCS.

  1. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.

  2. Risk analysis of the Vidaa River System

    OpenAIRE

    Vinyals i Patón, Miquel

    2011-01-01

    The main goal of this hydraulic study is the asses of flooding in the Vidaa River system. In order to realize a complete assessment, the main water contributions to the river system have been included in the flood analysis. Three kind of software have been used: • Flooding simulation (MIKE11). • Stochastic weather generator (RainSim). • Extreme value analysis (EVA tool from MIKE11). Mike11 offers the possibility of based upon twenty years observed rainfall data (main head catch...

  3. Contract Negotiations Supported Through Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Sérgio A.; Vaz, Marco A.; Souza, Jano M.

    Many clients often view software as a commodity; then, it is critical that IT sellers know how to create value into their offering to differentiate their service from all the others. Clients sometimes refuse to contract software development due to lack of technical understanding or simply because they are afraid of IT contractual commitments. The IT negotiators who recognize the importance of this issue and the reason why it is a problem will be able to work to reach the commercial terms they want. Therefore, this chapter aims to stimulate IT professionals to improve their negotiation skills and presents a computational tool to support managers to get the best out of software negotiations through the identification of contract risks.

  4. Risk analysis enhancement via computer applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since the development of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) by the airline industry, there has been various alternative approaches to applying this methodology to the nuclear power industry. Some of the alternatives were developed in order to shift the focus of analyses on plant specific concerns but the greatest majority of alternatives were developed in attempt to reduce the effort required to conduct a RCM analysis on as large of scale as a nuclear power station. Computer applications have not only reduced the amount of analysis time but have also produced more consistent results, provided an effective working RCM analysis tool and made it possible to automate a Living Program. During the development of a RCM Program at South Carolina Electric and Gas' V.C. Summer Nuclear Station (VCSNS), computer applications were developed. 6 figs, 1 tab

  5. Emerging frontier technologies for food safety analysis and risk assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Yi-yang; LIU Jia-hui; WANG Sai; CHEN Qi-long; GUO Tian-yang; ZHANG Li-ya; JIN Yong; SU Hai-jia; TAN Tian-wei

    2015-01-01

    Access to security and safe food is a basic human necessity and essential for a sustainable world. To perform hi-end food safety analysis and risk assessment with state of the art technologies is of utmost importance thereof. With applications as exempliifed by microlfuidic immunoassay, aptasensor, direct analysis in real time, high resolution mass spectrometry, benchmark dose and chemical speciifc adjustment factor, this review presents frontier food safety analysis and risk assess-ment technologies, from which both food quality and public health wil beneift undoubtedly in a foreseeable future.

  6. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  7. Spent fuel performance assessment and research. Final report of a co-ordinated research project on Spent Fuel Performance Assessment and Research (SPAR) 1997-2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report provides an overview of technical issues related to spent fuel wet and dry storage and summarizes the objectives and major findings of research, carried out within the framework of the Coordinated Research Program. Included are the fuel integrity aspects, fuel degradation mechanisms in dry and wet storage, behaviour of storage facility components (metallic components, reinforced concrete). Also included are issues related to long-term storage and monitoring technologies and techniques. Country reports on research projects within the SPAR Coordinated Research Program is presented. A brief history is given on the history of the BEFAST and SPAR Coordinated Research Projects

  8. Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

  9. How does scientific risk assessment of GM crops fit within the wider risk analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Katy L; Raybould, Alan F; Hudson, Malcolm D; Poppy, Guy M

    2007-01-01

    The debate concerning genetically modified crops illustrates confusion between the role of scientists and that of wider society in regulatory decision making. We identify two fundamental misunderstandings, which, if rectified, would allow progress with confidence. First, scientific risk assessment needs to test well-defined hypotheses, not simply collect data. Second, risk assessments need to be placed in the wider context of risk analysis to enable the wider 'non-scientific' questions to be considered in regulatory decision making. Such integration and understanding is urgently required because the challenges to regulation will escalate as scientific progress advances.

  10. Regional seismic risk analysis of peninsular India and structural seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earthquake is one of the natural hazards that can cause extensive damage to human lives and property. From the earthquake damage surveys conducted it has been noted that even the engineered structures suffer damage to varying degrees during earthquakes. Hence, one of the important issues of concern for design engineers and the decision-making authorities in public and private sector organizations is forecasting of seismic events in a seismically active region that can cause potential damage to the region/structures. Scientific and rational methods have to be applied to forecast the hazard potential and its effect. In this paper, an attempt has been made to present a general, rational method for seismic hazard estimation for a given region. Methodology of estimation of seismic hazard of two regions in peninsular India has been presented. A methodology has also been presented for carrying out structural risk analysis of reinforced concrete framed structures subjected to seismic excitation. The usefulness of the methodology is demonstrated by considering a two-day six-storey reinforced concrete frame subjected to different stochastic seismic excitations. (author)

  11. Geotechnical risk analysis by flat dilatometer (DMT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoroso, Sara; Monaco, Paola

    2015-04-01

    In the last decades we have assisted at a massive migration from laboratory testing to in situ testing, to the point that, today, in situ testing is often the major part of a geotechnical investigation. The State of the Art indicates that direct-push in situ tests, such as the Cone Penetration Test (CPT) and the Flat Dilatometer Test (DMT), are fast and convenient in situ tests for routine site investigation. In most cases the DMT estimated parameters, in particular the undrained shear strength su and the constrained modulus M, are used with the common design methods of Geotechnical Engineering for evaluating bearing capacity, settlements etc. The paper focuses on the prediction of settlements of shallow foundations, that is probably the No. 1 application of the DMT, especially in sands, where undisturbed samples cannot be retrieved, and on the risk associated with their design. A compilation of documented case histories that compare DMT-predicted vs observed settlements, was collected by Monaco et al. (2006), indicating that, in general, the constrained modulus M can be considered a reasonable "operative modulus" (relevant to foundations in "working conditions") for settlement predictions based on the traditional linear elastic approach. Indeed, the use of a site investigation method, such as DMT, that improve the accuracy of design parameters, reduces risk, and the design can then center on the site's true soil variability without parasitic test variability. In this respect, Failmezger et al. (1999, 2015) suggested to introduce Beta probability distribution, that provides a realistic and useful description of variability for geotechnical design problems. The paper estimates Beta probability distribution in research sites where DMT tests and observed settlements are available. References Failmezger, R.A., Rom, D., Ziegler, S.R. (1999). "SPT? A better approach of characterizing residual soils using other in-situ tests", Behavioral Characterics of Residual Soils, B

  12. A Subjective Risk Analysis Approach of Container Supply Chains

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zai-Li Yang; Jin Wang; Steve Bonsall; Jian-Bo Yang; Quan-Gen Fang

    2005-01-01

    After the 9/11 terrorism attacks, the lock-out of the American West Ports in 2002 and the breakout of SARS disease in 2003 have further focused mind of both the public and industrialists to take effective and timely measures for assessing and controlling the risks related to container supply chains (CSCs). However, due to the complexity of the risks in the chains, conventional quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods may not be capable of providing sufficient safety management information, as achieving such a functionality requires enabling the possibility of conducting risk analysis in view of the challenges and uncertainties posed by the unavailability and incompleteness of historical failure data. Combing the fuzzy set theory (FST) and an evidential reasoning (ER) approach, the paper presents a subjective method to deal with the vulnerability-based risks, which are more ubiquitous and uncertain than the traditional hazard-based ones in the chains.

  13. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.;

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...... of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure....

  14. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  15. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. PMID:21679738

  16. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume.

  17. Risk analysis for power systems : overview and potential benefits

    OpenAIRE

    Hilber, Patrik; Wallnerström, Carl Johan; Rosenlind, Johanna; Setréus, Johan; Schönborg, Niclas

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a mapping and sample of recently developed risk assessment techniques that are available for the distribution system operator. Three estimates on the value of more detailed risk analysis are desccribed. I.e. component reliability importance indices can be used to divversify the maintenance efforts, gaining better expected system performance at no cost. Furthermore, components that are assumed to be relatively harmless (based on average values) are identified as critical fo...

  18. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  19. Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

    2016-06-01

    In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

  20. RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

  1. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  2. The threat nets approach to information system security risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mirembe, Drake

    2015-01-01

    The growing demand for healthcare services is motivating hospitals to strengthen outpatient case management using information systems in order to serve more patients using the available resources. Though the use of information systems in outpatient case management raises patient data security concerns, it was established that the current approaches to information systems risk analysis do not provide logical recipes for quantifying threat impact and determining the cost-effectiveness of risk m...

  3. The Analysis and Assessment of the Credit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Mirea Marioara; Aivaz Kamer Ainur

    2011-01-01

    The commercial banks main operation is the granting of credits that occupies the first place among the total investments. Any bank assumes risks to a certain extent when granting credits and certainly all the banks generally incur losses when some debtors fail to comply with their obligations. The level of the assumed risks, the losses can be minimized if the credit operations are organized and managed in a professional manner. The paper grasps the moment of the analysis process preceding the...

  4. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  5. Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

  6. SYNTHETIC ANALYSIS OF CREDIT RISK - PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LĂPĂDUSI MIHAELA LOREDANA

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty of the economic and social environment in which a company operates represents the essentialfeature from which are discharged all types of hazards. Protection against risks, mitigation of their effects that aremeasured by the losses generated are issues which led to the continuous improvement of the measure of prevention andmanagement of riskThe article puts in to highlight a number of aspects related to the prevention and management of credit risk, twokey actions on the conduct of the business of a firm, but in carrying out the activities. In the presentation of the articlewe focused on a synthetic analysis of the sources of information used in credit risk analysis based on information fromsources both within the company and outside of it.The importance of prevention and management of credit consists in being able to forecast the possibleproduction of the event of credit risk and of taking in time the necessary decisions in order to reduce this and someadverse consequences. The essence of credit risk can be expressed by the possibility of the quantification of likelihoodappearance of this risk with consequences which have a direct effect on the activity of banks or financial institutions.

  7. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases. PMID:24402720

  8. Experimental RAO’s analysis of a monolithic concrete spar structure for offshore floating wind turbines

    OpenAIRE

    Campos Hortigüela, Alexis; Molins i Borrell, Climent; Gironella Cobos, Xavier; Trubat Casal, Pau; Alarcón Fernández, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays the offshore wind energy market is clearly oriented to be extended around the world. Bottom fixed solutions for supporting offshore wind turbines are useful in shallow waters which are available in a limited extent unless a continental shelf exists. Considering the Oil & Gas background knowledge, move from bottom fixed solutions to floating solutions is not a technical challenge, but the cost of each structure in terms of industry profit is currently the main ...

  9. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  10. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Obstacle Limitation Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandaradura, Amila Silva

    Obstacle limitation surfaces (OLS) are the main safeguard against objects that can pose a hazard to aircraft operations at and around the airports. The standard dimensions of the most of these surfaces were estimated using the pilot's experience at the time when they were included in to the standard documents. As a result, some of these standards may have been overestimated while others may not provide an adequate level of safety. With airports moving to the Safety Management System (SMS) approach to design and operations safety, proper evaluation of the level of safety provided by OLS at specific sites becomes great importance to airport operators. There is no published evidence, however, for the estimation of the safety level provided by the existing OLS standards. Moreover, the rationale used by the ICAO to establish existing OLS standards is not readily available in the standard documents. Therefore this study attempts to collect actual flight path data using information provided by air traffic control radars and construct a methodology to assess the probability of aircraft deviating from their intended/protected path. The extension of the developed methodology can be used to estimate the OLS dimensions that provide an acceptable safety level for the aircraft operations. This will be helpful to estimate safe and efficient standard dimensions of the OLS and assess the risk level of objects to the aircraft operations around airports. In order to assess the existing standards and show the applications of the methodology, three case studies were conducted using aircraft data collected from Ottawa (CYOW), Calgary (CYYC) and Edmonton (CYEG) International Airports.

  11. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  12. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  13. DMAICR in an ergonomic risks analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, E F; Lima, C R C

    2012-01-01

    The DMAICR problem-solving methodology is used throughout this paper to show you how to implement ergonomics recommendations. The DMAICR method consists of the following five six steps by which you can solve ergonomic design problems: The steps of the proposed method, adapting DMAICR, are the following: In the steep D, there is the definition of the project or the situation to be assessed and its guiding objectives, known as demand. In the step M, it relates to the work, tasks and organizational protocols and also includes the need of measuring. In the step A, all concepts are about the analysis itself. The step I is the moment of improving or incrementing. In the step C, control, prevention from prospective troublesome situation and implementation of management are the activities controlling the situation. R is Report. Some relevant technical and conceptual aspects for the comparison of these methodologies are illustrated in this paper. The steps of DMAICR were taken by a multifunctional team (multi-professional and multi-disciplinary) termed as focus group, composed by selected members of the company and supported by experts in ergonomics.

  14. DMAICR in an ergonomic risks analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, E F; Lima, C R C

    2012-01-01

    The DMAICR problem-solving methodology is used throughout this paper to show you how to implement ergonomics recommendations. The DMAICR method consists of the following five six steps by which you can solve ergonomic design problems: The steps of the proposed method, adapting DMAICR, are the following: In the steep D, there is the definition of the project or the situation to be assessed and its guiding objectives, known as demand. In the step M, it relates to the work, tasks and organizational protocols and also includes the need of measuring. In the step A, all concepts are about the analysis itself. The step I is the moment of improving or incrementing. In the step C, control, prevention from prospective troublesome situation and implementation of management are the activities controlling the situation. R is Report. Some relevant technical and conceptual aspects for the comparison of these methodologies are illustrated in this paper. The steps of DMAICR were taken by a multifunctional team (multi-professional and multi-disciplinary) termed as focus group, composed by selected members of the company and supported by experts in ergonomics. PMID:22316949

  15. Empirical Analysis of Urban Residents’ Perceived Climatic Change Risks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peihui; DAI; Lingling; HUANG

    2014-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human survival and security,urban development is even more profound,and receives more and more attention. To explore the perceived status of urban residents for the risks of climate change and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,taking Wuhan for example,from the microscopic point of urban residents,we use factor analysis to classify the perceived risks and recognized risk reduction measures,use cluster analysis to divide the urban residents into five groups,and use variance analysis to explore differences in the choice of measures between different cluster groups. We draw the following conclusions: the risk of deterioration of the ecological environment,the risk of economic damage,the risk of damage to the mental health,the risk of damage to the physical health and the risk of damage to the political harmony are the main risks of climate change for urban residents; individuals and families to develop good habits,businesses and governments to strengthen energy conservation,schools and other agencies to carry on the propaganda and education,carrying out multi-agent environment improvement,learn from the West are their recognized risk reduction measures. Depending on the perceived risk,the urban residents are clustered into five groups: those who are concerned about the body and politics,those who are concerned about the mental health,those who are concerned about the economic development,those who are concerned about the ecological safety,and those who ignore the climatic change. For the roles of individual and the family,business and government in the environmental protection,different groups have unanimous views,while for other measures,different groups have different understanding. It is concluded that individuals and families to develop environmentally friendly habits,government to strengthen regulation,businesses to take environmental responsibility,schools to strengthen publicity and education,and exploring

  16. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  17. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  18. Downside Risk analysis applied to Hedge Funds universe

    CERN Document Server

    Perello, J

    2006-01-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires a high precision risk evaluation and an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater (or lower) than investor's goal. We study several risk indicators using the Gaussian case as a benchmark and apply them to the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data.

  19. Computer code for general analysis of radon risks (GARR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document presents a computer model for general analysis of radon risks that allow the user to specify a large number of possible models with a small number of simple commands. The model is written in a version of BASIC which conforms closely to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) definition for minimal BASIC and thus is readily modified for use on a wide variety of computers and, in particular, microcomputers. Model capabilities include generation of single-year life tables from 5-year abridged data, calculation of multiple-decrement life tables for lung cancer for the general population, smokers, and nonsmokers, and a cohort lung cancer risk calculation that allows specification of level and duration of radon exposure, the form of the risk model, and the specific population assumed at risk. 36 references, 8 figures, 7 tables

  20. Risk Analysis on Uric Acid Resulting in Carotid Atherosclerosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    肖敏; 李河; 郭兰; 石美铃; 麦劲壮

    2004-01-01

    Objectives To explore the risk of uric acid (UA) resulting in carotid atherosclerosis. Methods With a cross sectional study, 643 subjects (aged 41-83 yrs, male 552 and female 91)were surveyed in 1999 in Guangdong Province, China.The main research variables were uric acid (UA), occurrence and the size of carotid artery plaque. Results There was no statistical significance between the UA means of plaque occurrence and no-occurrence groups (t=0.60, df=242, P=0.5495). It seemed UA was not a possible risk factor of carotid atherosclerosis (OR=1.060, P=-0.8448>0.05, n=244) based on the logistic regression analysis. Conclusions Our results are not consistent with serum UA being an independent risk factor for atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease (CHD). It is necessary to do more research to learn the risk degree of UA during the progress of atherosclerosis/CHD.

  1. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  2. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  3. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  4. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices; Analisis de riesgos en tratamientos de radiocirugia mediante matrices de riesgo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  5. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  6. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  7. Meta analysis of risk factors for colorectal cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kun Chen; Jiong-Liang Qiu; Yang Zhang; Yu-Wan Zhao

    2003-01-01

    AIM: To study the risk factors for colorectal cancer in China.METHODS: A meta-analysis of the risk factors of colorectal cancer was conducted for 14 case-control studies, and reviewed 14 reports within 13 years which included 5034cases and 5205 controls. Dersimonian and Laird random effective models were used to process the results.RESULTS: Meta analysis of the 14 studies demonstrated that proper physical activites and dietary fibers were protective factors (pooled OR<0.8), while fecal mucohemorrhage,chronic diarrhea and polyposis were highly associated with colorectal cancer (all pooled OR>4). The stratified results showed that different OR values of some factors were due to geographic factors or different resourses.CONCLUSION: Risks of colorectal cancer are significantly associated with the histories of intestinal diseases or relative symptoms, high lipid diet, emotional trauma and family history of cancers. The suitable physical activities and dietary fibers are protective factors.

  8. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  9. The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

  10. RASOR Project: Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk, from Hazard to Risk using EO data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Over recent decades, there has been a dramatic rise in disasters, and their impact on human populations. Escalation in complexities in our societies is making risks increasingly difficult to understand and changing the ways in which hazards interact with each other. The Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk (RASOR) project developed a multi-hazard risk analysis platform to support the full cycle of disaster management. RASOR provides up-to-date hazard information across floods and geohazards, up-to-date exposure data from known sources and newly-generated EO-based data, and characterised quantitatively their vulnerabilities. RASOR also adapts the newly-developed 12m resolution global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to risk management applications, using it as a base layer to develop specific disaster scenarios. RASOR overlays archived and near real-time very high resolution optical and radar satellite data, combined with in situ data for both global and local applications. A scenario-driven query system allows users to project situations into the future and model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event. Applications with regards to different case study sites are presented in order to illustrate the platform potential.

  11. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  12. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  13. Risk analysis of coastal flood defences: A Vietnam case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mai, C.V.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Vrijling, J.K.; Mai, T.C.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aims at risk analysis and the investigation of safety aspects of coastal flood defences in Vietnam. The sea dike system has been actually designed by a 20 to 25 years return period. From the current situation it seems that the dike system is not sufficient to withstand the actual sea boun

  14. Seismic risk analysis for General Electric Plutonium Facility, Pleasanton, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a seismic risk analysis that focuses on all possible sources of seismic activity, with the exception of the postulated Verona Fault. The best estimate curve indicates that the Vallecitos facility will experience 30% g with a return period of roughly 130 years and 60% g with a return period of roughly 700 years

  15. The risk communication using the special website of the society of risk analysis for the Great East Japan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Society for Risk Analysis Japan built the special website that reply to the people who are concerning the risk related to the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. Although, there were many risk communication activities between the specialists of the risk research and citizens on the website, there are some significant problems for the risk communication using the website. This report summarizes the result of our activity. (author)

  16. Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks--heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prpich, G; Dagonneau, J; Rocks, S A; Lickorish, F; Pollard, S J T

    2013-10-01

    We summarise our recent efforts on the policy-level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.

  17. Riskgov European Project. Comparative analysis of risk governance for radiological and chemical discharges of industrial installations. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of the RISKGOV Project is to analyse and identify quality criteria for the governance of industrial activities giving rise to risks to people and the environment from radioactive and chemical discharges during normal operations. For this purpose, RISKGOV aims at: 1) analysing and comparing the elements contributing to the quality of governance systems associated with environmental discharges from nuclear and chemical installations; 2) providing a series of criteria to assess the quality of the governance of risk activities. In total, 8 case studies were conducted, covering radioactive and chemical releases related to local and international contexts and referring to innovative risk governance processes in France, Sweden and the United Kingdom: - The role of local liaison committees with regard to the management of discharges of installations: - France: Local liaison committee of the Gravelines Nuclear Power Plant, - Sweden: Local liaison committees of the Barsebaeck Nuclear Power Plant and the Rohm and Hass Chemical installation, - The dialogue process during the preparation of re-authorisation of radioactive discharges: - France: COGEMA-La Hague facility, - United-Kingdom: Devonport Royal Dockyard, - The dialogue process in a regional context: - France: Management of air quality around the industrial site of Etang de Berre, - The dialogue process in an international context: - Implementation of the OSPAR Convention for chemical and radioactive releases, - The abandonment of the Brent Spar offshore platform. The analysis was performed by a multidisciplinary research team and based notably on interviews with key stakeholders directly involved in these innovative risk governance processes. The following dimensions were addressed: a) The guiding principles of the decision-making process; b) The role of expertise; c) The stakeholders involvement process; d) The factors integrated into the decision-framing and decision-taking processes; e) The

  18. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  19. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  20. Analysis of automated highway system risks and uncertainties. Volume 5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sicherman, A.

    1994-10-01

    This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.

  1. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  2. Use Of Risk Analysis Fremeworks In Urban Flood Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik

    , primarily insurance companies and mortgage providers, but also politicians and media are highly interested. Presently two very different approaches are being followed in both research and practice. One is the introduction of risk analysis and risk management tools to provide professionals and politicians...... and accepting losses that are outweighed by benefits to society as a whole. Another, very different approach is to apply more stakeholder driven approaches, much in the line of Integrated Water Resources Management. The key difference is that it is recognized that the costs and benefits of both existing...... are being carried out in real-life applications combining researchers, practitioners, and NGOs....

  3. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  4. Security risk analysis in retail store, Case study: Company X

    OpenAIRE

    Nugrahany, Raihana

    2015-01-01

    This thesis was conducted to protect the valuable assets of the case study company. By using the risk analysis, it will improve their business resilience by being well organized to prevent the occurrence of the threats and taking appropriate measure as response to it and by applying corporate security it can help to manage the safety of business function and assets of the case company. The purpose of this study is to identify various type of external and internal risk in the case company...

  5. Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

  6. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    to changing flood risk. In the presence of flood protection structures, flood development depends on the state of all protection structures in the system. As such, hazard is a function not only of rainfall and river discharge, but also of protection structures’ fragility. A methodology for flood risk analysis.......g. dikes), engineering vulnerability models that allow considering the impact of flood proofing measures on residential building vulnerability seem to be lacking. Thus, a flood vulnerability modelling approach for residential buildings is proposed, which allows for detailed building and hazard...

  7. Egg consumption and breast cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Ruohuang; Qu, Kunpeng; Jiang, Zebin; Yang, Xiaojun; Gao, Peng

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between egg consumption and breast cancer risk has been inconsistent, so it is necessary to conduct a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship. PubMed, EMBASE and ISI Web of Knowledge were searched to find cohort studies or case control studies that evaluated the relationship between egg consumption and breast cancer risk. A comprehensive meta-analysis software was used to conduct the meta-analysis. 13 studies were included. The meta-analysis results showed that egg consumption was associated with increased breast cancer risk (RR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.01-1.08). Subgroup analyses showed egg consumption was also associated with increased breast cancer risk based on cohort studies (RR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.00-1.08), among European population (RR 1.05, 95 % CI 1.01-1.09), Asian population (RR 1.09, 95 % CI 1.00-1.18), postmenopausal population (RR 1.06, 95 % CI 1.02-1.10), and those who consumed ≥2, ≤5/week (RR 1.10, 95 % CI 1.02-1.17), but not in case-control studies (RR 1.06, 95 % CI 0.97-1.15), among American population (RR 1.04, 95 % CI 0.94-1.16), premenopausal population (RR 1.04, 95 % CI 0.98-1.11) and those who consumed ≥1, 5 eggs/week (RR 0.97, 95 % CI 0.88-1.06). Egg consumption was associated with increased breast cancer risk among the European, Asian and postmenopausal population and those who consumed ≥2, ≤5/week. PMID:24504557

  8. Methodology for risk analysis based on atmospheric dispersion modelling from nuclear risk sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.; Rigina, O.

    2003-04-01

    The main purpose of this multidisciplinary study is to develop a methodology for complex nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test it on example of estimation of nuclear risk to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident at a nuclear risk site (NRS). The main focus of the paper is the methodology for the evaluation of the atmospheric transport and deposition of radioactive pollutants from NRSs. The method developed for this evaluation is derived from a probabilistic point of view. The main question we are trying to answer is: What is the probability for radionuclide atmospheric transport and impact to different neighbouring regions and countries in case of an accident at an NPP? To answer this question we applied a number of different tools: (i) Trajectory Modelling - to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originating over the locations of selected risk sites; (ii) Dispersion Modelling - for long-term simulation and case studies of radionuclide transport from hypothetical accidental releases at NRSs; (iii) Cluster Analysis - to identify atmospheric transport pathways from NRSs; (iv) Probability Fields Analysis - to construct annual, monthly, and seasonal NRS impact indicators to identify the most impacted geographical regions; (v) Specific Case Studies - to estimate consequences for the environment and the populations after a hypothetical accident; (vi) Vulnerability Evaluation to Radioactive Deposition - to describe its persistence in the ecosystems with a focus to the transfer of certain radionuclides into the food chains of key importance for the intake and exposure for a whole population and for certain population groups; (vii) Risk Evaluation and Mapping - to analyse socio-economical consequences for different geographical areas and various population groups taking into account social-geophysical factors and probabilities, and using demographic databases based on GIS analysis.

  9. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Börner

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed.

  10. Modelling soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) in the immediate period after a grassland fire in Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Paulo; Cerda, Artemi; Misiūnė, Ieva

    2015-04-01

    The soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) is an index that measures the amount of sodium and potassium adsorbed onto clay and organic matter surfaces, in relation to calcium and magnesium. Assess the potential of soil dispersion or flocculation, a process which has implication in soil hydraulic properties and erosion (Sarah, 2004). Depending on severity and the type of ash produced, fire can changes in the immediate period the soil nutrient status (Bodi et al. 2014). Ash releases onto soil surface a large amount of cations, due the high pH. Previous works showed that SPAR from ash slurries is higher than solutions produced from litter (Pereira et al., 2014a). Normally the spatial distribution of topsoil nutrients in the immediate period after the fire is very heterogeneous, due to the different impacts of fire. Thus it is important to identify the most accurate interpolation method in order to identify with better precision the impacts of fire on soil properties. The objective of this work is to test several interpolation methods. The study area is located in near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Four days after the fire it was designed a plot in a burned area with near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Twenty five samples were collected from the topsoil. The SPAR index was calculated according to the formula: (Na++K+)/(Ca2++Mg2+)1/2 (Sarah, 2004). Data followed the normal distribution, thus no transformation was required previous to data modelling. Several well know interpolation models were tested, as Inverse Distance to a Weight (IDW) with the power of 1, 2, 3 and 4, Radial Basis Functions (RBF), Inverse Multiquadratic (IMT), Multilog (MTG), Multiquadratic (MTQ), Natural Cubic Spline (NCS) and Thin Plate Spline (TPS) and Local Polynomial (LP) with the power of 1 and 2 and Ordinary Kriging. The best interpolator was the one which had the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (Pereira et al., 2014b). The

  11. Financial risk analysis and prediction of Chinese power industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, H.; An, C. [Hebei Univ. of Technology, Tianjin (China). School of Management; Zhang, C. [Nankai Univ., Tianjin (China). School of Business

    2009-03-11

    A study of 57 Shanghai and Shenzhen power industry companies was presented. The study considered financial ratios between companies in order to determine risk factors for financial crises. Financial data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were used to investigate power company performance from 2006 to 2008. Data from the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) were also used. Results of the study indicated that the cash-to-current debt ratio, the return on equity (ROE), net asset growth ratio, and inventory turnover presented uncorrelated and significantly varying ratios for failed power companies. The study also showed that most power companies have a high proportion of liabilities, higher debt risk, low asset turnover ratios, and negative net working capital. Results of the analysis were used to design an early warning model that used logistic regression techniques to predict risk. 7 refs., 5 tabs.

  12. Financial risk analysis and prediction of Chinese power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A study of 57 Shanghai and Shenzhen power industry companies was presented. The study considered financial ratios between companies in order to determine risk factors for financial crises. Financial data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were used to investigate power company performance from 2006 to 2008. Data from the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) were also used. Results of the study indicated that the cash-to-current debt ratio, the return on equity (ROE), net asset growth ratio, and inventory turnover presented uncorrelated and significantly varying ratios for failed power companies. The study also showed that most power companies have a high proportion of liabilities, higher debt risk, low asset turnover ratios, and negative net working capital. Results of the analysis were used to design an early warning model that used logistic regression techniques to predict risk. 7 refs., 5 tabs.

  13. [Risk analysis in radiation therapy: state of the art].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazeron, R; Aguini, N; Deutsch, É

    2013-01-01

    Five radiotherapy accidents, from which two serial, occurred in France from 2003 to 2007, led the authorities to establish a roadmap for securing radiotherapy. By analogy with industrial processes, a technical decision form the French Nuclear Safety Authority in 2008 requires radiotherapy professionals to conduct analyzes of risks to patients. The process of risk analysis had been tested in three pilot centers, before the occurrence of accidents, with the creation of cells feedback. The regulation now requires all radiotherapy services to have similar structures to collect precursor events, incidents and accidents, to perform analyzes following rigorous methods and to initiate corrective actions. At the same time, it is also required to conduct analyzes a priori, less intuitive, and usually require the help of a quality engineer, with the aim of reducing risk. The progressive implementation of these devices is part of an overall policy to improve the quality of radiotherapy. Since 2007, no radiotherapy accident was reported. PMID:23787020

  14. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being.

  15. Risk Factors Analysis on Traumatic Brain Injury Prognosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-dong Qu; Resha Shrestha; Mao-de Wang

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the independent risk factors of traumatic brain injury (TBI) prognosis.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed in 885 hospitalized TEl patients from January 1,2003 to January 1, 2010 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Medical College of Xi' an Jiaotong University. Single-factor and logistic regression analysis were conducted to evaluate the association of different variables with TBI outcome.Results The single-factor analysis revealed significant association between several variables and TEl outcome, including age (P=0.044 for the age group 40-60, P<0.001 for the age group ≥60), complications (P<0.001), cerebrospinal fluid leakage (P<0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (P<0.001), pupillary light reflex (P<0.001), shock (P<0.001), associated extra-cranial lesions (P=0.01), subdural hematoma (P<0.001), cerebral contusion (P<0.001), diffuse axonal injury (P<0.001), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (P<0.001), suggesting the influence of those factors on the prognosis of TBI. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis identified age, GCS score, pupillary light reflex, subdural hematoma, and subarachnoid hemorrhage as independent risk factors of TEl prognosis.Conclusion Age, GCS score, papillary light reflex, subdural hematoma, and subarachnoid hemorrhage may be risk factors influencing the prognosis of TEl. Paying attention to those factors might improve the outcome of TBI in clinical treatment.

  16. Risk analysis of critical infrastructures emphasizing electricity supply and interdependencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Failures in critical infrastructures can cause major damage to society. Wide-area interruptions (blackouts) in the electricity supply system have severe impacts on societal critical functions and other critical infrastructures, but there is no agreed-upon framework on how to analyze and predict the reliability of electricity supply. Thus, there is a need for an approach to cross-sector risk analyses, which facilitates risk analysis of outages in the electricity supply system and enables investigation of cascading failures and consequences in other infrastructures. This paper presents such an approach, which includes contingency analysis (power flow) and reliability analysis of power systems, as well as use of a cascade diagram for investigating interdependencies. A case study was carried out together with the Emergency Preparedness Group in the city of Oslo, Norway and the network company Hafslund Nett. The case study results highlight the need for cross-sector analyses by showing that the total estimated societal costs are substantially higher when cascading effects and consequences to other infrastructures are taken into account compared to only considering the costs of electricity interruptions as seen by the network company. The approach is a promising starting point for cross-sector risk analysis of electricity supply interruptions and consequences for dependent infrastructures.

  17. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  18. Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

    2016-01-01

    Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09-1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13-1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias-cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40-5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01-1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

  19. Working session 5: Operational aspects and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cizelj, L. [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Donoghue, J. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1997-02-01

    A general observation is that both operational aspects and risk analysis cannot be adequately discussed without information presented in other sessions. Some overlap of conclusions and recommendations is therefore to be expected. Further, it was assumed that recommendations concerning improvements in some related topics were generated by other sessions and are not repeated here. These include: (1) Knowledge on degradation mechanisms (initiation, progression, and failure). (2) Modeling of degradation (initiation, progression, and failure). (3) Capabilities of NDE methods. (4) Preventive maintenance and repair. One should note here, however, that all of these directly affect both operational and risk aspects of affected plants. A list of conclusions and recommendations is based on available presentations and discussions addressing risk and operational experience. The authors aimed at reaching as broad a consensus as possible. It should be noted here that there is no strict delineation between operational and safety aspects of degradation of steam generator tubes. This is caused by different risk perceptions in different countries/societies. The conclusions and recommendations were divided into four broad groups: human reliability; leakage monitoring; risk impact; and consequence assessment.

  20. Environmental risk analysis for offshore oil and gas activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brude, Odd Willy; Aspholm, Ole O.; Rudberg, Anders [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities always have a risk for environmental impact due to potential accidental releases of oil and gas. The environmental risk can be calculated as a combination of the frequency of such accidents to occur and their environmental consequences in terms of environmental damage to habitats or populations. A method for conducting environmental risk analysis has been in use in Norwegian offshore waters for a decade, with a continuously refinement of methodology over the past years. This paper outlines the principles in the MIRA method and gives examples and discussions regarding use in different environmental compartments. The risk assessment starts with identification of oil spill scenarios with frequencies of potential release rates and spill durations. The next step is to model the oil drift for each accidental oil spill scenario. Drift and fate of oil is modeled probabilistic. Based on the oil spill scenarios and their probability of oil pollution, the potential environmental damage is quantified for each scenario. The endpoint of environmental damage is reduction of a population and the resulting recovery time (in years) for various species and habitats. Environmental risk levels are then evaluated against the operating companies' environmental acceptance criteria. (author)

  1. Uncertainty analysis in the applications of nuclear probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this thesis is to propose an approach to model parameter and model uncertainties affecting the results of risk indicators used in the applications of nuclear Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA). After studying the limitations of the traditional probabilistic approach to represent uncertainty in PRA model, a new approach based on the Dempster-Shafer theory has been proposed. The uncertainty analysis process of the proposed approach consists in five main steps. The first step aims to model input parameter uncertainties by belief and plausibility functions according to the data PRA model. The second step involves the propagation of parameter uncertainties through the risk model to lay out the uncertainties associated with output risk indicators. The model uncertainty is then taken into account in the third step by considering possible alternative risk models. The fourth step is intended firstly to provide decision makers with information needed for decision making under uncertainty (parametric and model) and secondly to identify the input parameters that have significant uncertainty contributions on the result. The final step allows the process to be continued in loop by studying the updating of beliefs functions given new data. The proposed methodology was implemented on a real but simplified application of PRA model. (author)

  2. [Radiobiological analysis of cancerogenic risk values in radioepidemiological investigations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozhdestvenskiĭ, L M

    2008-01-01

    The aim of the present article consisted in critical analysis of the epidemiological approach to radiocancerogenic risk estimation in region of low level radiation (LLR). The estimation is making by means of mathematician models that ignore a principal difference in biological action of LLR and high level radiation (HLR). The main formal characteristic of LLR action is the presence of a plateau in beginning of a dose-effect curve of radiogenic risk. It may be argued by the following positions: repeating the plateau-phenomenon on various radiobiological effects, in different tests and bioobjects, first; a paradoxical trend of reciprocal ERR/Sv increasing regarding dose decreasing in region of plateau, second, and third, the increasing of the curvature in dose-effect curve beginning. The presence of a plateau is associated with the presence of a real radiogenic risk threshold. Besides, the analysis of processes influencing significantly the dynamics of initial radiation injury of biologically important macromolecules showed the preference in region of LLR those, decreasing/eliminating genome damages. There is follows from mentioned above a necessity to evaluate radiogenic risks in LLR region separately from HLR region. PMID:18825986

  3. Software requirements specification for the program analysis and control system risk management module

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SCHAEFER, J.C.

    1999-06-02

    TWR Program Analysis and Control System Risk Module is used to facilitate specific data processes surrounding the Risk Management program of the Tank Waste Retrieval environment. This document contains the Risk Management system requirements of the database system.

  4. Manage Stakeholders approach for analysis and risk assessment in the implementation of innovative projects

    OpenAIRE

    СУХОНОС, Марія Костянтинівна; Угоднікова, Олена Ігорівна

    2012-01-01

    The problem of innovation project risk management, notably Manage Stakeholder's risks, is consider in this article. The methodology of analysis and assessment Manage Stakeholder's risks in innovation projects is suggest

  5. Software requirements specification for the program analysis and control system risk management module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    TWR Program Analysis and Control System Risk Module is used to facilitate specific data processes surrounding the Risk Management program of the Tank Waste Retrieval environment. This document contains the Risk Management system requirements of the database system

  6. Water Flow Forecasting and River Simulation for Flood Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Merkurjeva, G

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents the state-of-the-art in flood forecasting and simulation applied to a river flood analysis and risk prediction. Different water flow forecasting and river simulation models are analysed. An advanced river flood forecasting and modelling approach developed within the ongoing project INFROM is described. It provides an integrated procedure for river flow forecasting and simulation advanced by integration of different models for improving predictions of th...

  7. Analysis and management of ecological risks : interests of PRA.

    OpenAIRE

    Delmotte, Sebastien; Arrignon, Florent; Gonzalez, Maya

    2010-01-01

    National audience Increasing intensity of human activities and natural resources exploitation threaten Earth ecological stability and resource durability. The recent understanding of the stakes linked with biodiversity erosion, especially for the goods and services given back to the society, rises the need for tools able to tackle ecological risks analysis. Addressing such analyses leads to be able to apprehend the inherent complexity of the natural ecosystems functioning, the diversity of...

  8. Flood modeling for risk evaluation: a MIKE FLOOD sensitivity analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Vanderkimpen, P.; Peeters, P

    2008-01-01

    The flood risk for a section of the Belgian coastal plain was evaluated by means of dynamically linked 1D (breach) and 2D (floodplain) hydraulic models. First, a one-at-a-time factor screening was performed to evaluate the relative importance of various model processes and parameters. Subsequently, a systematic sensitivity analysis was added to establish the contribution of the most influential factors (breach growth and surface roughness) to hydraulic modeling uncertainty. Finally, the uncer...

  9. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  10. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sibel ÇELİK

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks since it underlines the critical factors in liquidity risk management.

  11. Economic risk analysis and critical comparison of optimal biorefinery concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheali, Peam; Posada, John A.; Gernaey, Krist;

    2016-01-01

    value-added chemicals (diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene), provides an improved resilience and robustness against market price fluctuations by reducing economic loss by 140 MM$/a (17% IRR); (iii) the economic analysis favors biochemical conversion technologies for a small production/processing capacity...... recommend that a comprehensive economic risk analysis, using for example the MonteCarlo technique, should be an integral part of the conceptual design, development, and optimization of biorefineries to help improve their economic robustness in view of the competitive market forchemicals and fuels....

  12. Aircraft hazard analysis at the Pantex Plant: Data analysis, risk assessment, and risk reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Operations at the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Pantex Plant include assembly and dismantlement of nuclear weapons, as well as surveillance and interim storage of special nuclear material. The possibility of an aircraft crash into the Pantex Plant outside Amarillo, Texas, is of particular concern to the Department of Energy. In response to public concerns about such occurrences and in an effort to reduce risks associated with overflights of Pantex, several changes to navigational aids at the Amarillo International Airport are being implemented. Additionally, a radar airspace monitor and recording system have been connected to the airport surveillance radar at Amarillo to record all aircraft operations at the airport and those of aircraft flying over. This digitizer/controller and computer combination is allowing a database to be compiled that contains the number of aircraft operations, the type of aircraft involved, and the flightpath of each aircraft operating in the vicinity of the Pantex Plant. This observed data has provided a means to gain an objective understanding of overflight risk at Pantex

  13. Risk Analysis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhi-fang Jia; Meng Su; Miao He; Zhi-hua Yin; Wei Wu; Xue-lian Li; Peng Guan; Bao-sen Zhou

    2009-01-01

    Objective: It is known that chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a main risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). To assess the effect of HBV infection and its interaction with other factors on the risk for HCC, a hospital-based case-control study was carried out in Northeast China. Methods: A total of 384 cases with hepatocellular carcinoma and 432 controls without evidence of liver diseases were enrolled in the study. Blood samples were collected to detect the serum markers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) and questionnaires about lifestyle and family tumor history were performed in all subjects. Results: The total infection rate of HBV in hepatocellular carcinoma cases was 70.8% and 10.0% in non-liver disease controls. There was a statistically significant difference (P<0.0001) between cases and controls (OR= 22.0; 95%CI:15.0-32.3). Interaction analysis indicated that in HBV chronic carriers with HCV infection or alcohol consumption or family HCC history, the risk for HCC increased (OR=41.1, 95%CI: 20.2-83.9, OR=125.0, 95%CI: 66.5-235.2; OR=56.9, 95%CI: 27.2-119.3 respectively). In addition, hepatitis B history, HCV infection, hepatic cirrhosis and family history of HCC were also potential HCC independent risk factors. Conclusion: We confirmed that HBV is a chief risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma and accounts for 67.7% of all hepatocellular carcinoma in Northeast China. HCV infection, alcohol intake and family history could enhance the risk for HCC in chronic HBV carriers.

  14. Analysis and evaluation of enterprise risk management capability elements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Research on enterprise risk management capability is conducted with a view of discerning and processing risks, in which an evaluation index system and an evaluation model of enterprise risk management capabilities are constructed. The risk management capability consists of four aspects, i.e. risk identification capability, risk assessment capability, risk planning capability and risk control capability. Risk identification and assessment capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on finding and analyzing...

  15. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to human... 7 Agriculture 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Director, Office of Risk Assessment and...

  16. Risk analysis of the LHC underground area fire risk due to faulty electrical equipment

    CERN Document Server

    Harrison, A

    2007-01-01

    The European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland, is currently building the latest generation of particle accelerators, the LHC (Large Hadron Collider). The machine is housed in a circular tunnel of 27 km of circumference and is situated approximately 100 metres beneath the surface astride the Franco-Swiss border. Electrically induced fires in the LHC are a major concern, since an incident could present a threat to CERN personnel as well as the public. Moreover, the loss of equipment would result in significant costs and downtime. However, the amount of electrical equipment in the underground area required for operation, supervision and control of the machine is essential. Thus the present thesis is assessing the risk of fire due to faulty electrical equipment in both a qualitative as well as quantitative way. The recommendations following the qualitative analysis suggest the introduction of fire protection zones for the areas with the highest risk of fire due to a combination of p...

  17. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt [Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark). Systems Analysis Department

    2001-07-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis

  18. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sterlacchini

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

    A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

  19. Risk analysis guideline for working with radiation; Leidraad risicoanalyse stralingstoepassingen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bader, S.

    2010-11-15

    The RIVM has developed a guideline for carrying out ionizing radiation risk analyses. Dutch law requires that radiation risk analyses be carried out, but the Dutch Labour Inspectorate has signalled that compliance is low, primarily because many health physicists lack the necessary knowledge. Noncompliance is a reason for concern, as the risk analysis provides the basis for a proper understanding of the risks of working with radiation. Worker safety is enhanced when the guideline is followed. Dutch law dictates that a risk analysis must be carried out before any individual starts working with radiation. Examples of activities falling under the auspices of this law are the detection of welding defects in gas pipes and the taking of X-rays by veterinarians. The guideline, which was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, is a roadmap in which the most important steps for performing a risk analysis are described. Those responsible for radiation worker safety are expected to modify and apply these guidelines to the specific working conditions of their respective professional groups. [Dutch] Het RIVM heeft een leidraad ontwikkeld waarmee een risicoanalyse kan worden uitgevoerd voor het werken met ioniserende straling. Aanleiding is een signaal van de Arbeidsinspectie dat deze risicoanalyses die bij wet verplicht zijn, te weinig worden opgesteld. Dat komt doordat stralingsdeskundigen vaak niet weten hoe ze zoiets aan moeten pakken. Dit is zorgelijk, omdat de risicoanalyse ten grondslag ligt aan een goed begrip van de risico's van het werken met straling. Gebruik van de leidraad draagt bij aan een betere veiligheid van werknemers. De Nederlandse wet verplicht ondernemers om voorafgaand aan een handeling met ioniserende straling een risicoanalyse uit te laten voeren. Enkele voorbeelden van dat soort handelingen zijn de controle van lasnaden in gasleidingen met gammabronnen en het maken van een rontgenfoto door een dierenarts. De leidraad

  20. Flood Risk Analysis and Flood Potential Losses Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The heavy floods in the Taihu Basin showed increasing trend in recent years. In thiswork, a typical area in the northern Taihu Basin was selected for flood risk analysis and potentialflood losses assessment. Human activities have strong impact on the study area' s flood situation (asaffected by the polders built, deforestation, population increase, urbanization, etc. ), and havemade water level higher, flood duration shorter, and flood peaks sharper. Five years of differentflood return periods [(1970), 5 (1962), 10 (1987), 20 (1954), 50 (1991)] were used to cal-culate the potential flood risk area and its losses. The potential flood risk map, economic losses,and flood-impacted population were also calculated. The study's main conclusions are: 1 ) Humanactivities have strongly changed the natural flood situation in the study area, increasing runoff andflooding; 2) The flood risk area is closely related with the precipitation center; 3) Polder construc-tion has successfully protected land from flood, shortened the flood duration, and elevated waterlevel in rivers outside the polders; 4) Economic and social development have caused flood losses toincrease in recent years.

  1. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009.

  2. Risk Propagation Analysis and Visualization using Percolation Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Konig

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a percolation-based approach for the analysis of risk propagation, using malware spreading as a showcase example. Conventional risk management is often driven by human (subjective assessment of how one risk influences the other, respectively, how security incidents can affect subsequent problems in interconnected (subsystems of an infrastructure. Using percolation theory, a well-established methodology in the fields of epidemiology and disease spreading, a simple simulation-based method is described to assess risk propagation system-atically. This simulation is formally analyzed using percolation theory, to obtain closed form criteria that help predicting a pandemic incident propagation (or a propagation with average-case bounded implications. The method is designed as a security decision support tool, e.g., to be used in security operation centers. For that matter, a flexible visualization technique is devised, which is naturally induced by the percolation model and the simulation algorithm that derives from it. The main output of the model is a graphical visualization of the infrastructure (physical or logical topology. This representation uses color codes to indicate the likelihood of problems to arise from a security incident that initially occurs at a given point in the system. Large likelihoods for problems thus indicate “hotspots”, where additional action should be taken.

  3. Securitization of Receivables - An Analysis of the Inherent Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Roberto Ferreira Savoia

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Securitization is a modality of structured finance which allows a company to raise funds based on its receivables through capital markets. In Brazil, securitization was developed mostly in the form of mutual funds - the FIDC, which raise money by issuing senior cotes for qualified investors, and subordinated cotes, usually bought by the company that originated the receivables. This paper evaluates the risk and return for both kinds of investors through a stochastic model with two main variables: interest rates and default rates. The model is still sensible to the characteristics of the fund, like the amount of subordinated cotes, the type of asset being securitized; and the amount of receivables in relation to the assets. Regarding the case of senior cotes, the risk of returns under the basic level of interest rates is highly improbable; and in the case of subordinated cotes, the risk of returns under the basic interest rate may be considered still low, due to the high spreads observed in the Brazilian financial market. The simulations indicated that under historically mean interest rate volatility the default rates are the main component of the total risk. Accordingly to the developed analysis of international standards of regulation, the Brazilian Central Bank imposes very strong capital requirements to banks that securitize their assets and purchase the corresponding subordinated cotes.

  4. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. PMID:20731790

  5. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs

  6. Recent Advances in Launch Vehicle Toxic Hazard and Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    A number of widely used rocket propellants produce toxic combustion byproducts or are themselves toxic in their un-reacted state. In this paper we focus on the methodology used to evaluate early flight catastrophic failures and nominal launch emissions that release large amounts of propellant or combustion products into the planetary boundary layer that pose a potential risk to launch area personnel, spectators, or the general public. The United States has traditionally used the Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion Model (REEDM) [1] to access the hazard zones associated with such releases. REEDM is a 1970's vintage Gaussian atmospheric dispersion model that is limited in its ability to accurately simulate certain aspects of the initial source geometry and dynamics of a vehicle breakup and propellant fragment dispersion. The Launch Area Toxic Risk Analysis 3-Dimensional (LATRA3D) [2] computer program has been developed that addresses many of REEDM's deficiencies. LATRA3D is a probabilistic risk analysis tool that simulates both nominal vehicle flight and in-flight failure emissions.

  7. Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michael M·derl; Wolfgang Rauch

    2011-01-01

    The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g.,by terrorist attacks,infrastructure deterioration or climate change.For the spatial risk assessment,vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process.Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios.Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario.Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past.The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system,but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure.The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.

  8. Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle D. Sant´Anna

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%. In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector’s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.

  9. French experience in seismic risk analysis and associated research works

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This communication reviews the basic principles of the seismic risk analysis for nuclear installations in France practiced by the IPSN of the CEA. The presentation of each stage of the analysis includes an account of the methods used, the difficulties met, and a comparison with the recommendations of the AIEA-SG-S1. First, this paper deals with the sismotectonic analysis and with the definition of two reference earthquakes. Then, the calculation of the ground motion corresponding to the reference earthquakes is presented. A particular attention is paid to the problems of calculation of ground motion in the case of important earthquakes near active faults and to the effect of the soil on these movements. Finally, some criticisms, a description of studies undertaken at the moment and some recommendations are presented

  10. Effects of Zibu Piyin Recipe(滋补脾阴方药)on SNK-SPAR Pathway in Neuron Injury Induced by Glutamate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAN Li-bin; SUI Hua; LU Xiao-guang; SUN Chang-kai; ZHANG Jian; MA Hui

    2008-01-01

    Objective:To investigate the relationship between the excitotoxicity and seruminducible kinase(SNK)and spine-associated Rap GTPase-activating protein(SPAR)pathway in primary hippocampal neuron injury induced by glutamate and furthermore,to explore the molecular between ZBPYR and the morphological regulation of dendritic spines.Methods:The serum containing ZBPYR was prepared by seropharmacology.Reverse transcription and polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR)was used to detect the expression of mRNA for SNK,SPAR,postsynaptic density protein 95(PSD-95)and N-methyl-D-aspartate(NMDA)receptor subunits(NR1,NR2A and NR2B)in primary rat hippocampal neuron cultures after pretreatment with 10 μ mol/L glutamate and ZBPYR serum.Results:ZBPYR serum pretreatment resulted in a significant down-regulation of glutamate-induced SNK mRNA expression(P<0.05).Significant up-regulation was seen on the mRNA expression of SPAR and PSD-95 (P<0.05).All these changes were dose-dependent.The mRNA expression of NR1,NR2A and NR2B was down-regulated to different degrees(P<0.05).Conclusion:The mechanism of effect of ZBPYR on glutamate-induced excitotoxicity may be related to the regulation of SNK-SPAR signal pathway.ZBPYR may play a role in protecting and maintaining the normal morphology and structure of dendritic spines,which may be achieved by inhibiting the excessive activation of NMDA receptors.

  11. Romanian Economic Environment Entrepreneurial Activities Analysis and Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta VINTILĂ

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to approach risks at enterprise financial management by identifying potential risk sources and their attached risk factors, as well as identified risk quantification through statistical and mathematical instruments. Starting from the hypothesis that, in its essence, risk means variability, we propose measuring risk through elasticity coefficients, dispersion as well as trust intervals attached to financial indicators.

  12. Contextual risk factors for low birth weight: a multilevel analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbenga A Kayode

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (LBW remains to be a leading cause of neonatal death and a major contributor to infant and under-five mortality. Its prevalence has not declined in the last decade in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA and Asia. Some individual level factors have been identified as risk factors for LBW but knowledge is limited on contextual risk factors for LBW especially in SSA. METHODS: Contextual risk factors for LBW in Ghana were identified by performing multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis of 6,900 mothers dwelling in 412 communities that participated in the 2003 and 2008 Demographic and Health Surveys in Ghana. RESULTS: Contextual-level factors were significantly associated with LBW: Being a rural dweller increased the likelihood of having a LBW infant by 43% (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.01-2.01; P-value <0.05 while living in poverty-concentrated communities increased the risk of having a LBW infant twofold (OR 2.16; 95% CI 1.29-3.61; P-value <0.01. In neighbourhoods with a high coverage of safe water supply the odds of having a LBW infant reduced by 28% (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.57-0.96; P-value <0.05. CONCLUSION: This study showed contextual risk factors to have independent effects on the prevalence of LBW infants. Being a rural dweller, living in a community with a high concentration of poverty and a low coverage of safe water supply were found to increase the prevalence of LBW infants. Implementing appropriate community-based intervention programmes will likely reduce the occurrence of LBW infants.

  13. 76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... Part 171 Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records..., as amended (5 U.S.C. 552a). Certain portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State... system, Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, will support the vetting of...

  14. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a flight... risk analysis. (b) For licensed launches, the FAA will not approve the location of the proposed...

  15. ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES BANKRUPTCY RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulcsar Edina

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the fundamental role of small and medium enterprises in Romanian economy, this paper aims to quantify the level of their bankruptcy risk for 2009 and 2012 period, after debuting of financial crisis. The main reason of selecting this type of companies is that they represent the backbone of national economy. They have an indispensable role, because they offer jobs for great part of population and their contribution for GDP stimulation is considerable. In this paper it was applied two default risk models, namely the well known Altman’s Z-score model, based on five financial ratios and a bankruptcy predictor model developed by Teti et. al (2012 used firstly exclusively for Italian small and medium-sized enterprise for 2006-2009 period. The model proposed by Teti et. is based on the investigation of financially distressed and financially non-distressed Italian small and medium-sized enterprises during the financial crisis by using a discriminant analysis model. They conclude that there are four financial ratios, which characterized well the small and medium-sized enterprises bankruptcy risk. These variables are financial ratios, like: Debt/Total Assets, Return on Sales (ROS, EBIT/Interest Expenses and Working capital/EBIDTA. They consider that small and medium-sized enterprises require a particular approach in terms of bankruptcy risk analysis. In present study I try to compare the efficiency of traditional bankruptcy risk model with a small and medium-sized specific model. The necessary database for present analysis is ensured by simplified financial reports of 120 small and medium-sized enterprises registered in Bihor County. The selected enterprises are operating in manufacturing industry (21,67% and trading (78,33%. Present investigation has an important value in actual economic background, where the healthiness and sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises is a great issue. The results of study shows contradictory

  16. A performance-based approach to landslide risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeo, R. W.

    2009-04-01

    An approach for the risk assessment based on a probabilistic analysis of the performance of structures threatened by landslides is shown and discussed. The risk is a possible loss due to the occurrence of a potentially damaging event. Analytically the risk is the probability convolution of hazard, which defines the frequency of occurrence of the event (i.e., the demand), and fragility that defines the capacity of the system to withstand the event given its characteristics (i.e., severity) and those of the exposed goods (vulnerability), that is: Risk=p(D>=d|S,V) The inequality sets a damage (or loss) threshold beyond which the system's performance is no longer met. Therefore a consistent approach to risk assessment should: 1) adopt a probabilistic model which takes into account all the uncertainties of the involved variables (capacity and demand), 2) follow a performance approach based on given loss or damage thresholds. The proposed method belongs to the category of the semi-empirical ones: the theoretical component is given by the probabilistic capacity-demand model; the empirical component is given by the observed statistical behaviour of structures damaged by landslides. Two landslide properties alone are required: the area-extent and the type (or kinematism). All other properties required to determine the severity of landslides (such as depth, speed and frequency) are derived via probabilistic methods. The severity (or intensity) of landslides, in terms of kinetic energy, is the demand of resistance; the resistance capacity is given by the cumulative distribution functions of the limit state performance (fragility functions) assessed via damage surveys and cards compilation. The investigated limit states are aesthetic (of nominal concern alone), functional (interruption of service) and structural (economic and social losses). The damage probability is the probabilistic convolution of hazard (the probability mass function of the frequency of occurrence of given

  17. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  18. Probabilistic Approach to Risk Analysis of Chemical Spills at Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Magda Bogalecka; Krzysztof Kolowrocki

    2006-01-01

    Risk analysis of chemical spills at sea and their consequences for sea environment are discussed. Mutual interactions between the process of the sea accident initiating events, the process of the sea environment threats, and the process of the sea environment degradation are investigated. To describe these three particular processes, the separate semi-Markov models are built. Furthermore, these models are jointed into one general model of these processes interactions.Moreover, some comments on the method for statistical identification of the considered models are proposed.

  19. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  20. Risk-analysis of the fuel cycle in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As part of the risk analysis of the nuclear power plant fuel cycle in the Netherlands, a risk analysis is given of nuclear power plants in casu of the already operating Borssele reactor, Dodewaard reactor and a 1000MWe PWR and BWR reactor during accident and normal conditions. For a 1000MWe PWR and BWR reactor, four possible locations are considered. In the first part of the report the influence of nuclear power plants on the environment during normal operations is considered. For each location, a summary is given of the population, the kind of industry, the meteorology, the condition of the soil and surface waters in the environment of the reactor site. After a summary of the most important safety systems for cooling the reactor core, the power supply of the power plant, the treatment and discharge of gaseous and solid waste is described as is the administration, security and monitoring thereof. The quality control and quality assurance of reactor components is described extensively. For safeguards, there are ways described to prevent the theft of fossile materials during the fuel cycle. Health physics and radiation monitoring of reactor operators and workers in the power plant are discussed and the report closes with a description and calculation using diffusion models, of the direct influence of radioactive waste on the environment especially on the human population, or the indirect influence of radioactive waste due to food consumption. The description of the influence of reactor accidents on the environment starts with a classification of the most important accidents that can occur. For each of these accidents, an event tree has been made and the probability of occurrence of these events is calculated. For each accident, the probability and the order of radioactivity release has been calculated. A description is given of the risk analysis calculation for each release category and each reactor location. After a summary of the different kinds of radioactive

  1. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, es-pecially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems......-tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described...

  2. Risk Analysis of the applied RFID system : Project Stolpen

    OpenAIRE

    Grunzke, Richard

    2007-01-01

    This thesis will be a risk analysis of a RFID-system for a logistical application. The system works as follows: Around Karlstad in Sweden there are three new weighing machines for lorries. The load weight will be measured for the police to control overweight and for logistical reasons such as issuing invoices and optimising the supply chain. The lorries do not have to stop to be weighed. They have to drive slowly over the weighing machine, so the loss of time is minimal. The lorries will be i...

  3. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  4. RISK ANALYSIS IN HANDLING AND STORAGE OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guarascio Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Increase in productivity and technological system innovation have resulted a boost in the specific activity of use and handling petroleum Products the chemical and physical properties of petroleum products represent an advantage when they are used for its own uses, but may result in accidental scenarios which can cause serious damage to people and to environment. The quantitative risk analysis applied to gasoline storage plant is a tool to quantify the damage and to planning safety of exposed workers and people in surrounding area. Therefore this represents an effective means for emergency planning. Defined the vulnerability of the potential damage area through the characterization of known exposure levels, is possible to assess the individual risk indicators which depends on these exposure levels and the hazard scenarios evolution. The evaluations are used to verify that, for the emergency management purposes and safety design, it is partial to consider only the accidental events with high probability of occurrence but is exhaustive to use a quantitative probabilistic risk indicator (Expected Value of Damage. Through simulation of generated danger flow, consistent with the operating conditions of the plant, the compliance conditions in the early step of emergency management and the practical procedures for the implementation of the identified hazard scenarios have been laid down. These assessments check, as strategic goals, that the collection areas are not affected by the danger flow.

  5. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  6. Risk analysis associated with petroleum hydrocarbons: is everything running smoothly?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petroleum products represent one of the main sources of environmental contamination, and these products are complex, composed of several hundred individual hydrocarbons. The evaluation of the risks associated with petroleum products is often limited by certain specific parameters such as benzene. The petroleum hydrocarbons running from C(10) to C(50) are not often integrated in an analysis of the toxological risks since the toxological characterization of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons is difficult to carry out. There exist in the United States two approaches that were developed recently that allow the integration of various hydrocarbons comprising a mixture. In this presentation, two of these approaches are described and compared. An overview of these approaches related to Canadian regulatory bodies is included, and a case study completes the account. The two approaches that are most well known in this area are: 1) that of the Massachusetts Dept. of Environmental Protection, and 2) that of the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group. The integration of petroleum hydrocarbons in a quantitative evaluation of their toxological risk is possible by present methods. This integration allows a reduction in the uncertainty associated with the use of an integrating parameter in the case of these petroleum hydrocarbons in the C(10) to the C(50) range

  7. Risk Perception Analysis Related To Existing Dams In Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solimene, Pellegrino

    2013-04-01

    earthfill dam is illustrated by defining the risk analysis during its construction and operation. A qualitative "Event Tree Analysis" makes clear with an example the probability of occurrence of the events triggered by an earthquake, and leads to a classification of the damage level. Finally, a System Dynamics (SD) approach is presented to investigate possibilities of a preventive planning in relationship to the risk, so that it's possible to establish shared procedures to achieve the correct management in any crisis phase. As a qualitative result of a SD application, figure 1 presents a flow-chart about a case study on the same dam so to illustrate the emergency planning in a step by step procedure according to the Regulations.

  8. Bisphosphonates and risk of cardiovascular events: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dae Hyun Kim

    Full Text Available Some evidence suggests that bisphosphonates may reduce atherosclerosis, while concerns have been raised about atrial fibrillation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effects of bisphosphonates on total adverse cardiovascular (CV events, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction (MI, stroke, and CV death in adults with or at risk for low bone mass.A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE through July 2014 identified 58 randomized controlled trials with longer than 6 months in duration that reported CV events. Absolute risks and the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs of total CV events, atrial fibrillation, MI, stroke, and CV death were estimated. Subgroup analyses by follow-up duration, population characteristics, bisphosphonate types, and route were performed.Absolute risks over 25-36 months in bisphosphonate-treated versus control patients were 6.5% versus 6.2% for total CV events; 1.4% versus 1.5% for atrial fibrillation; 1.0% versus 1.2% for MI; 1.6% versus 1.9% for stroke; and 1.5% versus 1.4% for CV death. Bisphosphonate treatment up to 36 months did not have any significant effects on total CV events (14 trials; ORs [95% CI]: 0.98 [0.84-1.14]; I2 = 0.0%, atrial fibrillation (41 trials; 1.08 [0.92-1.25]; I2 = 0.0%, MI (10 trials; 0.96 [0.69-1.34]; I2 = 0.0%, stroke (10 trials; 0.99 [0.82-1.19]; I2 = 5.8%, and CV death (14 trials; 0.88 [0.72-1.07]; I2 = 0.0% with little between-study heterogeneity. The risk of atrial fibrillation appears to be modestly elevated for zoledronic acid (6 trials; 1.24 [0.96-1.61]; I2 = 0.0%, not for oral bisphosphonates (26 trials; 1.02 [0.83-1.24]; I2 = 0.0%. The CV effects did not vary by subgroups or study quality.Bisphosphonates do not have beneficial or harmful effects on atherosclerotic CV events, but zoledronic acid may modestly increase the risk of atrial fibrillation. Given the large reduction in fractures with bisphosphonates, changes in

  9. PERCEPTIONS OF RISKS AND RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES; AN ANALYSIS OF DUTCH LIVESTOCK FARMERS

    OpenAIRE

    Meuwissen, Miranda P.M.; Huirne, Ruud B.M.; Hardaker, J. Brian

    1999-01-01

    The risk environment of farmers is changing and new risk management strategies are being introduced. Beal (1996) stated that risk management strategies adopted by farmers will be in accordance with their personal preferences for risk. In this context it would be useful for developers and sellers of new risk management strategies to have insight into farmers' preferences for risk. This paper studies to what extent such preferences are farmer-specific or whether general relationships exist. By ...

  10. A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

  11. RAVEN, a New Software for Dynamic Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cristian Rabiti; Andrea Alfonsi; Joshua Cogliati; Diego Mandelli; Robert Kinoshita

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN is a generic software driver to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis of code simulating complex systems. Initially developed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the RELAP-7 code [1] is currently being generalized with the addition of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These interfaces are used to extend RAVEN capabilities to any software as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or directly via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable to investigate the system response probing the input space using Monte Carlo, grid strategies, or Latin Hyper Cube schemes, but its strength is its focus toward system feature discovery like limit surfaces separating regions of the input space leading to system failure using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The paper will present an overview of the software capabilities and their implementation schemes followed by same application examples.

  12. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  13. Information Security Risk Analysis Methods and Research Trends: AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Method

    OpenAIRE

    Ming-Chang Lee

    2014-01-01

    Information security risk analysis becomes an increasingly essential component of organization’s operations. Traditional Information security risk analysis is quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. Quantitative and qualitative analysis methods have some advantages for information risk analysis. However, hierarchy process has been widely used in security assessment. A future research direction may be development and application of soft computing such as rough sets, grey set...

  14. Prenatal stress increased Snk Polo-like kinase 2, SCF β-TrCP ubiquitin ligase and ubiquitination of SPAR in the hippocampus of the offspring at adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chutabhakdikul, Naunchan; Surakul, Pornprom

    2013-11-01

    Exposure to excessive glucocorticoids during fetal development period contributes to later life psychopathology. Prenatal stress decreases dendritic spine density and impair LTP in the hippocampus of rat pups, however, the mechanisms regulating these changes are still unclear. Glutamate receptors are localized in the postsynaptic density. PSD-95 is a postsynaptic scaffolding protein that plays a role in synaptic maturation and regulation of the synaptic strength and plasticity. PSD-95 interacts with other proteins to form the protein networks that promote dendritic spine formation. The present study investigated the effect of prenatal stress on the levels of scaffolding proteins of NMDA receptor in the hippocampus in order to explain how prenatal stress alters the amount of NMDA receptor in the pups' brain. Pregnant rats were randomly assigned to either the prenatal stress (PS) or the control group (C). The pregnant rats in the PS group were restrained in a plexiglas restrainer for 4h/day during the GD 14-21. Control rats were left undisturbed for the duration of their pregnancies. The amount of PSD-95, SPAR, NR2A and NR2B, as well as the levels of Snk Polo-like kinase 2 and the SCF β-TrCP ubiquitin ligase were measured in the hippocampus of the offspring. The results show that prenatal stress induces a reduction in the amount of NR2B and NR2A subunits in the hippocampus of rat pups, parallel to the decrease in PSD-95 and SPAR at P40 and P60. Moreover, prenatal stress increases Snk and β-TrCP in the hippocampus of rat pups, and the timing correlates with the decrease of SPAR and PSD-95. Prenatal stress also induces a significantly increases in the level of ubiquitinated SPAR in the hippocampus of rat pups at adulthood. The results suggest that degradation of SPAR via UPS system may contribute to the loss of PSD-95 and NMDA receptor subunits in the hippocampus of rat pups at adulthood. In conclusion, the present work demonstrates that the developing brain is

  15. Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

    2010-04-15

    During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

  16. Risk Analysis, Driver Behaviour and Traffic Safety at Intersections in Motorcycle-Dominated Traffic Flow

    OpenAIRE

    Le, Thu Huyen

    2009-01-01

    Firstly applied by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, risk analysis has quickly become an efficient methodology to apply in many industries, which have to deal with uncertainty. The nuclear industry, and more recently transportation (land and air), space, and food safety industries promote a greater use of risk analysis in their operations, and policy decision making. Aiming at modelling the cause-and-effect chain of driver behaviour, a new methodology of risk analysis, Darmstadt Risk An...

  17. MICA polymorphisms and cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Mengyao; Wang, Jun; Yuan, Lei; Zhang, Yunting; Zhang, Jixiang; Dong, Weiguo; Peng, Xiulan

    2015-01-01

    The major histocompatibility complex class I chain-related gene A transmembrane (MICA-TM) polymorphism has been implicated in susceptibility to cancer. However, the results are inconsistent. The aim of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the association between the MICA-TM polymorphisms and cancer risk. All eligible case-control studies published up to August 20, 2014 were identified by searching PubMed, Web of Science, CNKI and Wanfang databases. The cancer risk associated with the MICA polymorphism was estimated for each study by odds ratios (OR) together with its 95% confidence interval (CI), respectively. 21 studies from 19 publications with 3620 cases and 4903 controls were included. Overall, no significant associations between the MICA-TM polymorphism and cancer risk were found (A4 allele: OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.88-1.07; A5 allele: OR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.81-1.04; A5.1 allele: OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.89-1.18; A6 allele: OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.95-1.15; A9 allele: OR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.80-1.14; A10 allele: OR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.43-1.79; del: OR = 2.50, 95% CI: 0.73-8.58; A7 allele: OR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.43-2.00). When stratified by ethnicity, similar results were observed among Asians; however, there were significant association in Caucasian population for A5 (OR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.68-0.87) and A9 allele (OR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.66-0.85). This meta-analysis suggests that the MICA-TM A5 and A9 alleles may be an important protective factor for cancer in Caucasian populations.

  18. Analysis of trends in aviation maintenance risk: An empirical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safety is paramount in the airline industry. A significant amount of effort has been devoted to reducing mechanical failures and pilot errors. Recently, more attention has been devoted to the contribution of maintenance to accidents and incidents. This study investigates and quantifies the contribution of maintenance, both in terms of frequency and severity, to passenger airline risk by analyzing three different sources of data from 1999 to 2008: 769 NTSB accident reports, 3242 FAA incident reports, and 7478 FAA records of fines and other legal actions taken against airlines and associated organizations. We analyze several safety related metrics and develop an aviation maintenance risk scorecard that collects these metrics to synthesize a comprehensive track record of maintenance contribution to airline accidents and incidents. We found for example that maintenance-related accidents are approximately 6.5 times more likely to be fatal than accidents in general, and that when fatalities do occur, maintenance accidents result in approximately 3.6 times more fatalities on average. Our analysis of accident trends indicates that this contribution to accident risk has remained fairly constant over the past decade. Our analysis of incidents and FAA fines and legal actions also revealed similar trends. We found that at least 10% of incidents involving mechanical failures such as ruptured hydraulic lines can be attributed to maintenance, suggesting that there may be issues surrounding both the design of and compliance with maintenance plans. Similarly 36% of FAA fines and legal actions involve inadequate maintenance, with recent years showing a decline to about 20%, which may be a reflection of improved maintenance practices. Our results can aid industry and government in focusing resources to continue improving aviation safety.

  19. Dietary acrylamide and cancer risk: an updated meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelucchi, Claudio; Bosetti, Cristina; Galeone, Carlotta; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2015-06-15

    The debate on the potential carcinogenic effect of dietary acrylamide is open. In consideration of the recent findings from large prospective investigations, we conducted an updated meta-analysis on acrylamide intake and the risk of cancer at several sites. Up to July 2014, we identified 32 publications. We performed meta-analyses to calculate the summary relative risk (RR) of each cancer site for the highest versus lowest level of intake and for an increment of 10 µg/day of dietary acrylamide, through fixed-effects or random-effects models, depending on the heterogeneity test. Fourteen cancer sites could be examined. No meaningful associations were found for most cancers considered. The summary RRs for high versus low acrylamide intake were 0.87 for oral and pharyngeal, 1.14 for esophageal, 1.03 for stomach, 0.94 for colorectal, 0.93 for pancreatic, 1.10 for laryngeal, 0.88 for lung, 0.96 for breast, 1.06 for endometrial, 1.12 for ovarian, 1.00 for prostate, 0.93 for bladder and 1.13 for lymphoid malignancies. The RR was of borderline significance only for kidney cancer (RR = 1.20; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.00-1.45). All the corresponding continuous estimates ranged between 0.95 and 1.03, and none of them was significant. Among never-smokers, borderline associations with dietary acrylamide emerged for endometrial (RR = 1.23; 95% CI, 1.00-1.51) and ovarian (RR = 1.39; 95% CI, 0.97-2.00) cancers. This systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies indicates that dietary acrylamide is not related to the risk of most common cancers. A modest association for kidney cancer, and for endometrial and ovarian cancers in never smokers only, cannot be excluded.

  20. Analysis of risk factors of pulmonary embolism in diabetic patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Objective: To study the related risk factors in diabetic patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Methods: 58 diabetic cases underwent lower limbs 99mTc-MAA veins imaging (and/or ultrasonography) and pulmonary perfusion imaging. The related laboratory data [fasting blood glucose (FBG), blood cholesterol, blood long chain triglycerides (LCT)] and clinic information [age, disease courses, chest symptoms (chest pain and short of breathe), lower limbs symptoms (swelling, varicose veins and diabetic foot) and acute complication (diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperosmolar non ketotic diabetic coma)] were collected simultaneously. SPSS was used for χ2-test and Logistic regression analysis. Results: (1) 28 patients (48.3%) were showed to be with lower limbs deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and by 99mTc-MAA imaging, 10 cases (17.2%) with PE. The PE ratios (32.1%) of the patients with DVT was more higher than no DVT (3.3%) (χ2 =6.53, P2≥4.23, P2≤2.76, P>0.05), respectively. (3) Multiplicity analysis indicated: the related risk factors for PE included chest symptoms (Score=13.316, P=0.000) and lower limbs symptoms (Score=7.780, P=0.005). No significant difference to other factors (Score≤2.494, P>0.114), respectively. Conclusion: The serious DM with chest symptoms, lower limbs symptoms and/or DVT must be controlled as early as possible by all kinds of treatment. It will decrease the PE complication. (authors)

  1. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS IN 3901 PATIENTS WITH STROKE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin-Feng Liu; Guy van Melle; Julien Bogousslavsky

    2005-01-01

    Objective To estimate the frequency of various risk factors for overall stroke and to identify risk factors for cerebral infarction (CI) versus intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in a large hospital-based stroke registry.Methods Data from a total of 3901 patients, consisting of 3525 patients with CI and 376 patients with ICH were prospectively coded and entered into a computerized data bank.Results Hypertension and smoking were the most prominent factors affecting overall stroke followed by mild internal carotid artery stenosis (< 50%), hypercholesterolemia, transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), diabetes mellitus, and cardiac ischemia. Univariate analysis showed that factors in male significantly associated with CI versus ICH were old age, a family history of stroke, and intermittent claudication; whereas in female the factors were oral contraception and migraine. By multivariate analysis, in all patients, the factors significantly associated with CI as opposed to ICH were smoking, hypercholesterolemia, migraine, TIAs, atrial fibrillation, structural heart disease, and arterial disease. Hypertension was the only significant factor related with ICH versus CI.Conclusions The factors for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke are not exactly the same. Cardiac and arterial disease are the most powerful factors associated with CI rather than ICH.

  2. An adhesive bond state classification method for a composite skin-to-spar joint using chaotic insonification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasel, Timothy R.; Todd, Michael D.

    2010-07-01

    The combination of chaotically amplitude-modulated ultrasonic waves and time series prediction algorithms has shown the ability to locate and classify various bond state damage conditions of a composite bonded joint. This study examines the ability of a new two-part supervised learning classification scheme not only to classify disbond size but also to classify whether a bond for which there is no baseline data is undamaged or has some form of disbond. This classification is performed using data from a similarly configured composite bond for which baseline data are available. The test structures are analogous to a wing skin-to-spar bonded joint. An active excitation signal is imparted to the structure through a macro fiber composite (MFC) patch on one side of the bonded joint and sensed using an equivalent MFC patch on the opposite side of the joint. There is an MFC actuator/sensor pair for each bond condition to be identified. The classification approach compares features derived from an autoregressive (AR) model coefficient vector cross-assurance criterion.

  3. Establishment of a Risk Assessment Framework for Analysis of the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jing; WANG Jing-fei; WU Chun-yan; YANG Yan-tao; JI Zeng-tao; WANG Hong-bin

    2007-01-01

    To evaluate the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in mainland China, a risk assessment framework was built.Risk factors were determined by analyzing the epidemic data using the brainstorming method; the analytic hierarchy process was designed to weigh risk factors, and the integrated multicriteria analysis was used to evaluate the final result.The completed framework included the risk factor system, data standards for risk factors, weights of risk factors, and integrated assessment methods. This risk assessment framework can be used to quantitatively analyze the outbreak and spread of HPAI in mainland China.

  4. Risk factors for progressive ischemic stroke A retrospective analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Progressive ischemic stroke has higher fatality rate and disability rate than common cerebral infarction, thus it is very significant to investigate the early predicting factors related to the occurrence of progressive ischemic stroke, thc potential pathological mechanism and the risk factors of early intervention for preventing the occurrence of progressive ischemic stroke and ameliorating its outcome.OBJECTIVE: To analyze the possible related risk factors in patients with progressive ishcemic stroke, so as to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of progressive ishcemic stroke.DESIGN: A retrospective analysis.SETTING: Department of Neurology, General Hospital of Beijing Coal Mining Group.PARTICIPANTS: Totally 280 patients with progressive ischemic stroke were selected from the Department of Neurology, General Hospital of Beijing Coal Mining Group from March 2002 to June 2006, including 192 males and 88 females, with a mean age of (62±7) years old. They were all accorded with the diagnostic standards for cerebral infarction set by the Fourth National Academic Meeting for Cerebrovascular Disease in 1995, and confired by CT or MRI, admitted within 24 hours after attack, and the neurological defect progressed gradually or aggravated in gradients within 72 hours after attack, and the aggravation of neurological defect was defined as the neurological deficit score decreased by more than 2 points. Meanwhile,200 inpatients with non-progressive ischemic stroke (135 males and 65 females) were selected as the control group.METHODS: After admission, a univariate analysis of variance was conducted using the factors of blood pressure, history of diabetes mellitus, fever, leukocytosis, levels of blood lipids, fibrinogen, blood glucose and plasma homocysteine, cerebral arterial stenosis, and CT symptoms of early infarction, and the significant factors were involved in the multivariate non-conditional Logistic regression analysis.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

  5. A Categorical Data Analysis on Risks in Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Uematsu, Hiroki; Mishra, Ashok K.

    2011-01-01

    This study compares farm operators’ risk perceptions and actual realization of risk attitudes revealed through off-farm labor, enterprise diversification, and use of contracts, crop insurance, and other types of insurance, using data from 2001 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Results from ordered logit model and multivariate probit models unexpectedly found that risk loving farmers are more likely to employ risk management strategies.

  6. Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

  7. Investigation and risk factor analysis of hyperuricemia in pilots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-yu MA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective  To investigate the incidence of hyperuricemia in military pilots and the relationship between hyperuricemia and other related risk factors of cardiovascular diseases. Methods  A total of 2563 pilots, who had undergone a regular physical examination in the Air Force General Hospital from 2005 to 2010, participated in the current study. The participants were divided into high serum uric acid (UA group (hyperuricemia group, UA >420µmol/L, n=294 and normal UA group (n=2269. The incidence rates of hypertension, hyperglycemia, and hyperlipemia were compared between these two groups. The dependent variable was serum UA level of the pilots. Other indices included the total cholesterol (CHO, triglycerides (TG, high density lipoprotein (HDL, low density lipoprotein (LDL, fasting blood glucose (FBG, systolic blood pressure (SBP, diastolic blood pressure (DBP, smoking, body weight, and flight time as independent variable. Logistic multivariate regression analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between UA level and these indexes. Results  The incidence rates of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, low HDL, and high LDL were significantly higher in hyperuricemia group than in normal UA group (POR=1.637, POR=1.025, POR=1.046, PConclusion  The serum UA of pilots is closely related to the risk factors of other cardiovascular diseases.

  8. Risk of Hypothyroidism following Hemithyroidectomy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prognostic Studies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verloop, H.; Louwerens, M.; Schoones, J.W.; Kievit, J.; Smit, J.W.A.; Dekkers, O.M.

    2012-01-01

    Context: The reported risk of hypothyroidism after hemithyroidectomy shows considerable heterogeneity in literature. Objective: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine the overall risk of hypothyroidism, both clinical and subclinical, after hemithyroidectomy. Furthermore

  9. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study, rail and highway routes which may be used for shipments of high-level nuclear waste to a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada are characterized. This characterization facilitates three types of impact analysis: comparative study, limited worst-case assessment, and more sophisticated probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Data for relative and absolute impact measures are provided to support comparisons of routes based on selected characteristics. A worst-case scenario assessment is included to determine potentially critical and most likely places for accidents or incidents to occur. The assessment facilitated by the data in this study is limited because impact measures are restricted to the identification of potential areas or persons affected. No attempt is made to quantify the magnitude of these impacts. Most likely locations for accidents to occur are determined relative to other locations within the scope of this study. Independent factors and historical trends used to identify these likely locations are only proxies for accident probability

  10. Risk analysis of sustainable urban drainage and irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ursino, Nadia

    2015-09-01

    Urbanization, by creating extended impervious areas, to the detriment of vegetated ones, may have an undesirable influence on the water and energy balances of urban environments. The storage and infiltration capacity of the drainage system lessens the negative influence of urbanization, and vegetated areas help to re-establish pre-development environmental conditions. Resource limitation, climate, leading to increasing water scarcity, demographic and socio-institutional shifts promote more integrated water management. Storm-water harvesting for landscape irrigation mitigates possible water restrictions for the urban population in drought scenarios. A new probabilistic model for sustainable rainfall drainage, storage and re-use systems was implemented in this study. Risk analysis of multipurpose storage capacities was generalized by the use of only a few dimensionless parameters and applied to a case study in a Mediterranean-type climate, although the applicability of the model is not restricted to any particular climatic type.

  11. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  12. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundtang Paulsen, J

    2004-05-01

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  13. A Graphical Adversarial Risk Analysis Model for Oil and Gas Drilling Cybersecurity

    OpenAIRE

    Vieira, Aitor Couce; Houmb, Siv Hilde; Insua, David Rios

    2014-01-01

    Oil and gas drilling is based, increasingly, on operational technology, whose cybersecurity is complicated by several challenges. We propose a graphical model for cybersecurity risk assessment based on Adversarial Risk Analysis to face those challenges. We also provide an example of the model in the context of an offshore drilling rig. The proposed model provides a more formal and comprehensive analysis of risks, still using the standard business language based on decisions, risks, and value.

  14. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica T.; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Porta-Sancho, Juan R.

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative flood risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a standardized framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response and consequen...

  15. Information Security Risk Analysis Methods and Research Trends: AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang Lee

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Information security risk analysis becomes an increasingly essential component of organization’s operations. Traditional Information security risk analysis is quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. Quantitative and qualitative analysis methods have some advantages for information risk analysis. However, hierarchy process has been widely used in security assessment. A future research direction may be development and application of soft computing such as rough sets, grey sets, fuzzy systems, generic algorithm, support vector machine, and Bayesian network and hybrid model. Hybrid model are developed by integrating two or more existing model. A Practical advice for evaluation information security risk is discussed. This approach is combination with AHP and Fuzzy comprehensive method

  16. Study of Hip Fracture Risk using Tree Structured Survival Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Y

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In dieser Studie wird das Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei postmenopausalen Frauen untersucht, indem die Frauen in verschiedene Subgruppen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos klassifiziert werden. Frauen in einer gemeinsamen Subgruppe haben ein ähnliches Risiko, hingegen in verschiedenen Subgruppen ein unterschiedliches Hüftfraktur-Risiko. Die Subgruppen wurden mittels der Tree Structured Survival Analysis (TSSA aus den Daten von 7.665 Frauen der SOF (Study of Osteoporosis Fracture ermittelt. Bei allen Studienteilnehmerinnen wurde die Knochenmineraldichte (BMD von Unterarm, Oberschenkelhals, Hüfte und Wirbelsäule gemessen. Die Zeit von der BMD-Messung bis zur Hüftfraktur wurde als Endpunkt notiert. Eine Stichprobe von 75% der Teilnehmerinnen wurde verwendet, um die prognostischen Subgruppen zu bilden (Trainings-Datensatz, während die anderen 25% als Bestätigung der Ergebnisse diente (Validierungs-Datensatz. Aufgrund des Trainings-Datensatzes konnten mittels TSSA 4 Subgruppen identifiziert werden, deren Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei einem Follow-up von im Mittel 6,5 Jahren bei 19%, 9%, 4% und 1% lag. Die Einteilung in die Subgruppen erfolgte aufgrund der Bewertung der BMD des Ward'schen Dreiecks sowie des Oberschenkelhalses und nach dem Alter. Diese Ergebnisse konnten mittels des Validierungs-Datensatzes reproduziert werden, was die Sinnhaftigkeit der Klassifizierungregeln in einem klinischen Setting bestätigte. Mittels TSSA war eine sinnvolle, aussagekräftige und reproduzierbare Identifikation von prognostischen Subgruppen, die auf dem Alter und den BMD-Werten beruhen, möglich. In this paper we studied the risk of hip fracture for post-menopausal women by classifying women into different subgroups based on their risk of hip fracture. The subgroups were generated such that all the women in a particular subgroup had relatively similar risk while women belonging to two different subgroups had rather different risks of hip fracture. We used the Tree Structured

  17. Risk analysis of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies in animals: state-of-the-art

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; de Koeijer, Aline; Hagenaars, Thomas J.;

    2008-01-01

    The Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) crisis of the last two decades has shown that proper interaction of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is essential. Mathematical models and risk assessments have been used as a basis for BSE risk management options and much...... of the legislation regarding the control and eradication of BSE. Much uncertainty regarding important input parameters remains a major constraint in risk assessment. Uncertainty is one of the most critical and most difficult aspects of communication of risks about Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs......). Nevertheless, the decline in the BSE epidemic in the UK and most European countries demonstrates that management has been, for the most part, sucessful. Literature pertaining to the three inter-related facets of risk analysis: risk assessment, risk management and risk communication of TSE's of animal origin...

  18. Imminent Cardiac Risk Assessment via Optical Intravascular Biochemical Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wetzel, D.; Wetzel, L; Wetzel, M; Lodder, R

    2009-01-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination are

  19. DNA adducts and cancer risk in prospective studies: a pooled analysis and a meta-analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veglia, Fabrizio; Loft, Steffen; Matullo, Giuseppe;

    2008-01-01

    Bulky DNA adducts are biomarkers of exposure to aromatic compounds and of the ability of the individual to metabolically activate carcinogens and to repair DNA damage. Their ability to predict cancer onset is uncertain. We have performed a pooled analysis of three prospective studies on cancer risk...... in which bulky DNA adducts have been measured in blood samples collected from healthy subjects (N = 1947; average follow-up 51-137 months). In addition, we have performed a meta-analysis by identifying all articles on the same subject published up to the end of 2006, including case-control studies....... In the pooled analysis, a weakly statistically significant increase in the risk of lung cancer was apparent (14% per unit standard deviation change in adduct levels, 95% confidence interval 1-28%; using the weighted mean difference method, 0.15 SD, units higher adducts in cases than in controls...

  20. Foundations of risk analysis a knowledge and decision-oriented perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Aven

    2004-01-01

    Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis - expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support d

  1. 49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... information as well as changes that may reasonably be anticipated to occur during the analysis year....

  2. Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Harwood, Joy L.; Heifner, Richard G.; Coble, Keith H.; Perry, Janet E.; Somwaru, Agapi

    1999-01-01

    The risks confronted by grain and cotton farmers are of particular interest, given the changing role of the Government after passage of the 1996 Farm Act. With the shift toward less government intervention in the post-1996 Farm Act environment, a more sophisticated understanding of risk and risk management is important to help producers make better decisions in risky situations and to assist policymakers in assessing the effectiveness of different types of risk protection tools. In response, ...

  3. Risk Management in the Extractive Industries: Environmental Analysis and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Sean P.

    2014-01-01

    Risk management has been used regularly in the mining industry over the last few decades. The majority of those instances have focused on health and safety issues. Health and safety has improved in the United States, Australia, and other major mining districts because of the successful use of risk management and mitigation practices. Risk management has been used to a lesser extent to reduce or avoid environmental issues as well. There are a number of factors that make utilization of risk man...

  4. Study on risk analysis of supply chain enterprises

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wu Xiaohui; Zhong Xiaobing; Song Shiji; Wu Cheng

    2006-01-01

    The sources of supply chain enterprise risk from different aspects including material flow, information flow, cash flow and partner relationship is analyzed. Measures for risk reduction have also been summarized from the aspects of risk sharing, information sharing, change of inventory control mode, and supply chain flexibility. Finally, problems in current research on supply chain risk management are pointed out and a discussion on future research trend is presented.

  5. Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Dimitrova, D S; Kaishev, V. K.; Zhao, S.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint proba...

  6. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group] [and others

    2012-09-15

    There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

  7. Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

  8. Safety optimization in waste management based on risk analysis using fuzzy-logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk analysis is the basis for site selection of repositories for low and medium radioactive waste and for optimization of a selected waste disposal system from a safety point of view. It comprises the processing of subjective expert judgment data and the identification of events which are major risk contributors according to the authors. The method of risk analysis is based on probability theory and elements of fuzzy set theory and involves uncertainty analysis and the structured use of expert judgment data. The risk analysis methodology and its application to waste management systems are explained in detail

  9. Cardiovascular Risk in Psoriasis: A Population-Based Analysis with Assessment of the Framingham Risk Score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Myasoedova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To examine the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS in estimating cardiovascular risk in psoriasis. Methods. We compared the predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular events, namely, cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, heart failure, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, and coronary artery bypass grafting using the FRS, to the observed risk of cardiovascular events in a population-based cohort of patients with psoriasis. Patients with incident or prevalent adult-onset psoriasis aged 30–79 years without prior history of cardiovascular disease were included. Results. Among the 1197 patients with predicted risk scores, the median FRS was 6.0%, while the observed 10-year cardiovascular risk was 6.9% (standardized incidence ratio (SIR: 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI: 0.92–1.42. The SIR was not elevated for women nor for men. The differences between observed and predicted cardiovascular risks in patients <60 years (SIR: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.73–1.41 or ≥60 years (SIR: 1.26; 95% CI: 0.95–1.68 were not statistically significant. Conclusion. There was no apparent difference between observed and predicted cardiovascular risks in patients with psoriasis in our study. FRS reasonably estimated cardiovascular risk in both men and women as well as in younger and older psoriasis patients, suggesting that FRS can be used in risk stratification in psoriasis without further adjustment.

  10. ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT RISK IN CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

    OpenAIRE

    Kinga Kądziołka

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the article was to evaluate the risks of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Particular attention was paid to the risk of investment on the Polish exchanges: Bitcurex, BitBay, BitMarket.pl and LocalBitcoins. To evaluate the risk there was used VaR measure. There were compared the risk of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency and the risk of investing in the selected "traditional" currencies. There was also paid attention to the effect of day of the week on the Bitcoin’s exchanges. T...

  11. Prospective Analysis of Risk for Hypothyroidism after Hemithyroidectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgilijus Beisa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To evaluate risk factors and to develop a simple scoring system to grade the risk of postoperative hypothyroidism (PH. Methods. In a controlled prospective study, 109 patients, who underwent hemithyroidectomy for a benign thyroid disease, were followed up for 12 months. The relation between clinical data and PH was analyzed for significance. A risk scoring system based on significant risk factors and clinical implications was developed. Results. The significant risk factors of PH were higher TSH (thyroid-stimulating hormone level and lower ratio of the remaining thyroid weight to the patient’s weight (derived weight index. Based on the log of risk factor, preoperative TSH level greater than 1.4 mU/L was assigned 2 points; 1 point was for 0.8–1.4 mU/L. The derived weight index lower than 0.8 g/kg was assigned 1 point. A risk scoring system was calculated by summing the scores. The incidences of PH were 7.3%, 30.4%, and 69.2% according to the risk scores of 0-1, 2, and 3. Conclusion. Risk factors for PH are higher preoperative TSH level and lower derived weight index. Our developed risk scoring system is a valid and reliable tool to identify patients who are at risk for PH before surgery.

  12. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  13. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory.

  14. Analysis and management of risks from the nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Coordinated Research Programme (CRP) on Risk Criteria for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle was begun in 1983 with several objectives: A primary objective was to permit countries with little experience with risk assessment methods to gain familiarity with these techniques. Another objective was to support work regarding safety criteria complementary to the risk assessment work. Risk criteria expressed as quantitative safety goals or targets can be used to establish acceptable safety levels; in this respect, they define what it is that risk assessments should measure; conversely the capabilities of risk assessment must be recognized when risk criteria are established. In addition to the work by each participating country under the sponsorship of the programme, the exchange of information between the participants was an objective of the programme. Refs, figs and tabs

  15. ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT RISK IN CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kinga Kądziołka

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article was to evaluate the risks of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Particular attention was paid to the risk of investment on the Polish exchanges: Bitcurex, BitBay, BitMarket.pl and LocalBitcoins. To evaluate the risk there was used VaR measure. There were compared the risk of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency and the risk of investing in the selected "traditional" currencies. There was also paid attention to the effect of day of the week on the Bitcoin’s exchanges. The investment in cryptocurrency was characterized by higher risk than investing in “traditional” currencies. The Polish Bitcoin exchange LocalBitcoins was characterized by the highest risk and highest average daily rate of return.

  16. RISK DISCLOSURE ANALYSIS IN THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ANNUAL REPORT USING FUZZY-SET QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Carmona

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the necessary and sufficient conditions of good Corporate Governance practices for high risk disclosure by firms in their Corporate Governance Annual Report. Additionally, we explore whether those recipes have changed during the financial crisis. With a sample of 271 Spanish listed companies, we applied fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to a database of financial and non-financial data. We report that Board of Directors independence, size, level of activity and gender diversity, CEO duality, Audit Committee independence, being audited by the Big Four auditing firms and the presence of institutional investors are associated with high risk disclosure. The conditions included in almost every combination are the presence of institutional investors and being audited by the Big Four. We found similar combinations for 2006 and 2012, while the analysis for 2009 showed the lowest number of causal configurations.

  17. Assessing the impact of a combined analysis of four common low-risk genetic variants on autism risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carayol Jerome

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Autism is a complex disorder characterized by deficits involving communication, social interaction, and repetitive and restrictive patterns of behavior. Twin studies have shown that autism is strongly heritable, suggesting a strong genetic component. In other disease states with a complex etiology, such as type 2 diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease, combined analysis of multiple genetic variants in a genetic score has helped to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Genetic scores are designed to test for association of genetic markers with disease. Method The accumulation of multiple risk alleles markedly increases the risk of being affected, and compared with studying polymorphisms individually, it improves the identification of subgroups of individuals at greater risk. In the present study, we show that this approach can be applied to autism by specifically looking at a high-risk population of children who have siblings with autism. A two-sample study design and the generation of a genetic score using multiple independent genes were used to assess the risk of autism in a high-risk population. Results In both samples, odds ratios (ORs increased significantly as a function of the number of risk alleles, with a genetic score of 8 being associated with an OR of 5.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.45 to 12.49. The sensitivities and specificities for each genetic score were similar in both analyses, and the resultant area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were identical (0.59. Conclusions These results suggest that the accumulation of multiple risk alleles in a genetic score is a useful strategy for assessing the risk of autism in siblings of affected individuals, and may be better than studying single polymorphisms for identifying subgroups of individuals with significantly greater risk.

  18. Putting risk analysis into perspective: a comparative review of major societal risk studies of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The emphasis in this final report of the project Evaluation of major Swedish energy risk assessments in an international perspective is shifted towards the comparative aspect. The comprehensive nuclear risk study has been used as an instrument to satisfy many needs simultaneously. The research consisted of an examination of existing risk studies of five nations, namely West Germany, UK, US, Canada and Sweden. The effect of nuclear risk studies on society at large and on public attitude towards nuclear power in particular is discussed. Finally, the effect on the nuclear establishment is analysed. (G.B.)

  19. Integrating input output analysis with risk assessment to evaluate the population risk of arsenic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Hwong-Wen; Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Hung, Ming-Lung; Chao, Chia-Wei; Li, Pei-Chiun

    2012-01-17

    Multimedia and site-specific risk assessments (RA) of major sources releasing arsenic (As) were converted into sector-based risk coefficients, which were integrated with the Input Output Table (IO) to analyze the association between sector activities and health risks. The developed IO-RA framework is a valuable tool for unfolding the risk chain linking the receptors, exposure pathways, emission sources, and production and consumption activities associated with various industrial sectors. The enlarged decision space along the chain can then be considered in planning risk management strategies. This case study estimates that air emissions of As result in 1.54 carcinogenic cases. Export is the primary driving force and accounts for approximately 48% of the final demand that leads to population risks of As. The ranking of the contribution of the five sectors in terms of total population risks is as follows: electricity supply (1.06E+00), steelmaking (2.2 × 10(-1)), cement kilns (1.50 × 10(-1)), semiconductor manufacturing (6.34 × 10(-2)) and incinerators (4.31 × 10(-2)). The electricity supply, steelmaking industry, and cement kilns are the major sectors, not only because their emissions directly cause risk but also because they have a stronger influence on the risk generated by other sectors. PMID:22192073

  20. Issues regarding Risk Effect Analysis of Digitalized Safety Systems and Main Risk Contributors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung-Cheol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, P.O. Box 105, Yusong, Daejeon, 305-600 (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-07-01

    Risk factors of safety-critical digital systems affect overall plant risk. In order to assess this risk effect, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required. This article aims to provide an overview of the issues when developing a risk model and demonstrate their effect on plant risk quantitatively. Research activities in Korea for addressing these various issues, such as the software failure probability and the fault coverage of self monitoring mechanism are also described. The main risk contributors related to the digitalized safety system were determined in a quantitative manner. Reactor protection system and engineered safety feature component control system designed as part of the Korean Nuclear I and C System project are used as example systems. Fault-tree models were developed to assess the failure probability of a system function which is designed to generate an automated signal for actuating both of the reactor trip and the complicated accident-mitigation actions. The developed fault trees were combined with a plant risk model to evaluate the effect of a digitalized system's failure on the plant risk. (authors)

  1. [Risk communication in analysis of occupational health risk for industrial workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barg, A O; Lebedeva-Nesevrya, N A

    2015-01-01

    The article covers problems of risk communication system function on industrial enterprise. Sociologic study in machinery construction enterprise of Perm area helped to consider main procedures of informing on occupational risk for health of workers exposed to occupational hazards, to describe features and mechanisms of risk communication, to specify its model. The authors proved that main obstacles for efficient system of occupational risks communication are insufficiently thorough legal basis, low corporative social responsibility of the enterprise and low social value of health for workers. This article was prepared with the support of the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation (Project No. 14-16-59011). PMID:26596113

  2. Method to calculate additional ramps explicity (CARE) in quantitative risk analysis for road tunnels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelisse, R.M.L.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2014-01-01

    Article 13 of the EU Directive on minimum safety requirements for tunnels in the Trans-European Road Network states that a risk analysis, where necessary, shall be carried out. In the Netherlands, the risk of decease for road users in a tunnel (internal risk) is calculated with a model for quantitat

  3. A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

    2005-01-01

    Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

  4. Graduate Education in Risk Analysis for Food, Agriculture, and Veterinary Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Ana-Paula; Wolt, Jeffrey D.

    2010-01-01

    The notion of risk in relation to food and food production has heightened the need to educate students to effectively deal with risk in relation to decision making from a science-based perspective. Curricula and related materials were developed and adopted to support graduate learning opportunities in risk analysis and decision making as applied…

  5. Elusive Critical Elements of Transformative Risk Assessment Practice and Interpretation: Is Alternatives Analysis the Next Step?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Royce A

    2015-11-01

    This article argues that "game-changing" approaches to risk analysis must focus on "democratizing" risk analysis in the same way that information technologies have democratized access to, and production of, knowledge. This argument is motivated by the author's reading of Goble and Bier's analysis, "Risk Assessment Can Be a Game-Changing Information Technology-But Too Often It Isn't" (Risk Analysis, 2013; 33: 1942-1951), in which living risk assessments are shown to be "game changing" in probabilistic risk analysis. In this author's opinion, Goble and Bier's article focuses on living risk assessment's potential for transforming risk analysis from the perspective of risk professionals-yet, the game-changing nature of information technologies has typically achieved a much broader reach. Specifically, information technologies change who has access to, and who can produce, information. From this perspective, the author argues that risk assessment is not a game-changing technology in the same way as the printing press or the Internet because transformative information technologies reduce the cost of production of, and access to, privileged knowledge bases. The author argues that risk analysis does not reduce these costs. The author applies Goble and Bier's metaphor to the chemical risk analysis context, and in doing so proposes key features that transformative risk analysis technology should possess. The author also discusses the challenges and opportunities facing risk analysis in this context. These key features include: clarity in information structure and problem representation, economical information dissemination, increased transparency to nonspecialists, democratized manufacture and transmission of knowledge, and democratic ownership, control, and interpretation of knowledge. The chemical safety decision-making context illustrates the impact of changing the way information is produced and accessed in the risk context. Ultimately, the author concludes that although

  6. Advanced probabilistic risk analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-7

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Cogliati, Joshua [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN, under the support of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program [1], is advancing its capability to perform statistical analyses of stochastic dynamic systems. This is aligned with its mission to provide the tools needed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) path-lead [2] under the Department Of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability program [3]. In particular this task is focused on the synergetic development with the RELAP-7 [4] code to advance the state of the art on the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (NPP). The investigation of the probabilistic evolution of accident scenarios for a complex system such as a nuclear power plant is not a trivial challenge. The complexity of the system to be modeled leads to demanding computational requirements even to simulate one of the many possible evolutions of an accident scenario (tens of CPU/hour). At the same time, the probabilistic analysis requires thousands of runs to investigate outcomes characterized by low probability and severe consequence (tail problem). The milestone reported in June of 2013 [5] described the capability of RAVEN to implement complex control logic and provide an adequate support for the exploration of the probabilistic space using a Monte Carlo sampling strategy. Unfortunately the Monte Carlo approach is ineffective with a problem of this complexity. In the following year of development, the RAVEN code has been extended with more sophisticated sampling strategies (grids, Latin Hypercube, and adaptive sampling). This milestone report illustrates the effectiveness of those methodologies in performing the assessment of the probability of core damage following the onset of a Station Black Out (SBO) situation in a boiling water reactor (BWR). The first part of the report provides an overview of the available probabilistic analysis capabilities, ranging from the different types of distributions available, possible sampling

  7. Sanitary risk analysis for farm workers exposed to environmental pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Pascuzzi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In Italy, a large number of agricultural areas are contaminated by organic and inorganic polluting substances. In such areas, the agricultural operators come into contact with the environmental contaminants through inhalation and dermic contact with dusts and vapour, and this exposure can potentially alter the biological equilibrium with consequent poisonings and/or work-related illness. The aim of this paper is to apply a methodological procedure for the numerical evaluation of the health risk for agricultural employees operating in open fields or inside greenhouses located in areas contaminated with organic pollutants. This procedure is in response to the lack of calculation models concerning these types of environment and agricultural activities. As a case study, this methodology has been applied to an agricultural area of southern Italy characterised by the presence of pollutants. The results underline that in this area there is a smaller concentration of pollutants in open field cultivations than inside greenhouses owing to a phenomenon of dispersion into the atmosphere. This numeric analysis will later be verified by measurements carried out in situ in order to evaluate the real situation on the ground.

  8. Arctic climate change and oil spill risk analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    William B. Samuels; David E. Amstutz; Heather A. Crowley

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to:1) describe the effects of climate change in the Arctic and its impact on circulation,2) describe hindcast data used in the Ocean Energy Management,Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model,3)evaluate alternatives such as using forecast results in the OSRA model,and 4) recommend future studies.Effects of climate change on winds,sea ice,ocean circulation and river discharge in the Arctic and impacts on surface circulation can be evaluated only through a series of specially designed numerical experiments using highresolution coupled ice-ocean models to elucidate the sensitivity of the models to various parameterizations or forcings.The results of these experiments will suggest what mechanisms are most important in controlling model response and guide inferences on how OSRA may respond to different climate change scenarios.Climatological change in the Arctic could lead to drastic alterations of wind,sea ice cover and concentration,and surface current fields all of which would influence hypothetical oil spill trajectories.Because of the pace at which conditions are changing,BOEMRE needs to assess whether forecast ice/ocean model results might contain useful information for the purposes of calculating hypothetical oil spill trajectories.

  9. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, D.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  10. Risk analysis for a local gas distribution network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cost control and service reliability are popular topics when discussing strategic issues facing local distribution companies (LDCs) in the 1990s. The ability to provide secure and uninterrupted gas service is crucial for growth and company image, both with the public and regulatory agencies. At the same time, the industry is facing unprecedented competition from alternate fuels, and cost control is essential for maintaining a competitive edge in the market. On the surface, it would appear that cost control and service reliability are contradictory terms. Improvement in service reliability should cost something, or does it? Risk analysis can provide the answer from a distribution design perspective. From a gas distribution engineer's perspective, projects such as loops, backfeeds and even valve placement are designed to reduce, minimize and/or eliminate potential customer outages. These projects improve service reliability by acting as backups should a failure occur on a component of the distribution network. These contingency projects are cost-effective but their longterm benefit or true value is under question. Their purpose is to maintain supply to an area in the distribution network in the event of a failure somewhere else. Two phrases, potential customer outages and in the event of failure, identify uncertainty

  11. Framework for risk analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whelan, G.; Buck, J.W.; Castleton, K.J.; Hoopes, B.L.; Pelton, M.A.; McDonald, J.P.; Gelston, G.M.; Taira, R.Y. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1998-05-01

    The objectives of this workshop are to (1) provide the NRC staff and the public with an overview of currently available Federally-Sponsored dose models appropriate for decommissioning assessments and (2) discuss NRC staff-developed questions related to model selection criteria with the final rule on ``Radiological Criteria for License Termination`` (62 FR 39058). For over 40 years, medium specific models have been and will continue to be developed in an effort to understand and predict environmental phenomena, including fluid-flow patterns, contaminant migration and fate, human or wildlife exposures, impacts from specific toxicants to specific species and their organs, cost-benefit analyses, impacts from remediation alternatives, etc. For nearly 40 years, medium-specific models have been combined for either sequential or concurrent assessments. The evolution of multiple-media assessment tools has followed a logic progression. To allow a suite of users the flexibility and versatility to construct, combine, and couple attributes that meet their specific needs without unnecessarily burdening the user with extraneous capabilities, the development of a computer-based methodology to implement a Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) was begun in 1994. FRAMES represents a platform which links elements together and yet does not represent the models that are linked to or within it; therefore, changes to elements that are linked to or within FRAMES do not change the framework.

  12. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk

    KAUST Repository

    Picone, Sara

    2012-03-30

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the vast majority of previous studies, this model accounts for vertical variation of soil water saturation and includes aerobic biodegradation. The attenuation factor (ratio between concentration in the crawl space and source concentration) and the characteristic time to approach maximum concentrations were calculated and compared for a variety of scenarios. These concepts allow an understanding of controlling mechanisms and aid in the identification of critical parameters to be collected for field situations. The relative distance of the source to the nearest gas-filled pores of the unsaturated zone is the most critical parameter because diffusive contaminant transport is significantly slower in water-filled pores than in gas-filled pores. Therefore, attenuation factors decrease and characteristic times increase with increasing relative distance of the contaminant dissolved source to the nearest gas diffusion front. Aerobic biodegradation may decrease the attenuation factor by up to three orders of magnitude. Moreover, the occurrence of water table oscillations is of importance. Dynamic processes leading to a retreating water table increase the attenuation factor by two orders of magnitude because of the enhanced gas phase diffusion. © 2012 SETAC.

  13. Risk analysis of tyramine concentration in food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doudová, L.; Buňka, F.; Michálek, J.; Sedlačík, M.; Buňková, L.

    2013-10-01

    The contribution is focused on risk analysis in food microbiology. This paper evaluates the effect of selected factors on tyramine production in bacterial strains of Lactococcus genus which were assigned as tyramine producers. Tyramine is a biogenic amine sythesized from an amino acid called tyrosine. It can be found in certain foodstuffs (often in cheese), and can cause a pseudo-response in sensitive individuals. The above-mentioned bacteria are commonly used in the biotechnological process of cheese production as starter cultures. The levels of factors were chosen with respect to the conditions which can occur in this technological process. To describe and compare tyramine production in chosen microorganisms, generalized regression models were applied. Tyramine production was modelled by Gompertz curves according to the selected factors (the lactose concentration of 0-1% w/v, NaCl 0-2% w/v and aero/anaerobiosis) for 3 different types of bacterial cultivation. Moreover, estimates of model parameters were calculated and tested; multiple comparisons were discussed as well. The aim of this paper is to find a combination of factors leading to a similar tyramine production level.

  14. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007; Metode for miljoerettet risikoanalyse (MIRA) revisjon 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-04-15

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  15. Uncertainty analysis of EUSES: Improving risk management through probabilistic risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Rikken MGJ; Poel P van der; ECO

    1997-01-01

    In risk assessment of new and existing substances, it is current practice to characterise risk using a deterministic quotient of the exposure concentration, or the dose, and a no-effect level. Feelings of uncertainty are tackled by introducing worst-case assumptions in the methodology. Since this pr

  16. Risk Management by Insurers: An Analysis of the Process

    OpenAIRE

    David F. Babbel; Anthony M. Santomero

    1997-01-01

    Throughout the past year, on-site visits to financial service firms were conducted to review and evaluate their risk management systems. In the insurance sector, this evaluation covered a number of prominent life/health and property/casualty insurers, both in the U.S. and abroad. The information obtained covered both the philosophy and practice of financial risk management. This paper outlines the results of this investigation. It reports the state of risk management techniques in the industr...

  17. MULTIPLE CRITERIA ANALYSIS FOR EVALUATION OF INFORMATION SYSTEM RISK

    OpenAIRE

    Olson, David L.; DESHENG DASH WU

    2011-01-01

    Information technology (IT) involve a wide set of risks. Enterprise information systems are a major developing form of information technology involving their own set of risks, thus creating potential blind spots. This paper describes risk management issues involved in enterprise resource planning systems (ERP) which have high impact on organizations due to their high cost, and their pervasive impact on organizational operations. Alternative means of acquiring ERP systems, to include outsourci...

  18. Risk analysis of potential invasive plants in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Andreu, Jara; Vilà, Montserrat

    2010-01-01

    Once non-native species become established in a new region, they are extremely difficult to eradicate or control, suggesting an urgent need for the development of early warning systems to determine the probability of a given species becoming invasive. Risk assessment schemes are valuable tools to diminish the risk of invasion and to concentrate resources on preventing the entrance and spread of those species with higher risk of invasion. For many European countries, plant species not yet intr...

  19. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  20. Risk-analysis for alternative fuels; Risikoanalyse alternativer Treibstoffe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fermaud, Ch.

    2008-07-01

    This presentation made at the Swiss 2008 research conference on traffic by Charles Fermaud from the Ernst Basler and Partner AG company in Zollikon, Switzerland, deals with risk-related topics in connection with the shift away from traditional oil-based fuels. The various risks posed by liquid and gas fuels in the various stages from their manufacture through storage, tank-filling and use are discussed. The author is of the opinion that, with the proliferation of new fuels, the overall risk level will be reduced. The subjective perception of risk and increasing demands on safety are looked at.

  1. Risk Analysis and Consumer Protection in B2C Transactions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jian-zheng; SHI Qi-liang; Gary Millar; Ruhul A. Sarker

    2005-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that the perceived lack of security is a major obstacle to the wider acceptance of e-commerce. To overcome this barrier, businesses need to implement comprehensive consumer protection systems that protect consumers during every stage of the purchasing process. This paper used the consumer behaviour model as the basis for analysing risks in Bussiness-to-Consumer (B2C) transactions. Four categories of risks were identified: information, agreement, payment and delivery risk. By combining these risk categories with the three dimensions of management, technology and legislation, a comprehensive B2C consumer protection framework is developed.

  2. Aspirin Use and Lung Cancer Risk: A Possible Relationship? Evidence from an Updated Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Hai-yan Jiang; Tian-bao Huang; Lei Xu; Jing Yu; Yan Wu; Jiang Geng; Xu-dong Yao

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose Growing evidence has emerged and controversial results reported on possible relationship between aspirin use and lung cancer risk. We, therefore, conducted this updated and comprehensive meta-analysis to evaluate this issue, with focus on dose-risk and duration-risk relationships. Methods We searched electronic databases including PUBMED, EMBASE and Cochrane library to identify eligible studies. Relative risk (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were used for cohor...

  3. Sex dependent risk factors for mortality after myocardial infarction: individual patient data meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Loo,, K.K.; Heuvel, van den, E.P.J.; Schoevers, RA; Anselmino, M.; Carney, RM; Denollet, J; Doyle, F.; Freedland, KE; Grace, SL; Hosseini, Sh; Parakh, K; Pilote, L.; C. Rafanelli; Roest, AM; SATO, H

    2014-01-01

    Background: Although a number of risk factors are known to predict mortality within the first years after myocardial infarction, little is known about interactions between risk factors, whereas these could contribute to accurate differentiation of patients with higher and lower risk for mortality. This study explored the effect of interactions of risk factors on all-cause mortality in patients with myocardial infarction based on individual patient data meta-analysis. Methods: Prospective data...

  4. 75 FR 32900 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Sweet Limes From Mexico...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-10

    ... have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation of sweet... are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES: We will... risk analysis, can be safely imported subject to one or more of the designated phytosanitary...

  5. 76 FR 31577 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Apricot, Sweet Cherry...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the... the importation of those commodities from South Africa. We are making the pest risk analysis...

  6. 76 FR 35186 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Interstate Movement of Rambutan From Puerto...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-16

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Interstate... risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the interstate movement into the continental... Rico. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. ] DATES:...

  7. 76 FR 5779 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Litchi From the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-02

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation of... importation of litchi from the Republic of South Africa. We are making the pest risk analysis available to...

  8. 75 FR 52304 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Interstate Movement of Guavas From Hawaii Into...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-25

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Interstate... risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the interstate movement into the continental.... We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES: We...

  9. 75 FR 6345 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh False Coriander From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-09

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation into the continental... Panama. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES:...

  10. 77 FR 13260 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Litchi, Longan, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-06

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the.... SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks... Philippines. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES:...

  11. Meta-analysis of studies using statins as a reducer for primary liver cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Guo-Chao; Liu, Yan; Ye, Yuan-Yuan; Hao, Fa-Bao; Wang, Kang; Gong, Jian-Ping

    2016-01-01

    A protective effect of statins on primary liver cancer (PLC) risk has been suggested. However, issues about the dose–response relationship, the protective effect of individual statins, and PLC risk reduction among at-risk populations remain unsolved. Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for studies providing the risk ratio (RR) on statins and PLC risk. Summary RRs were calculated using a random-effects model. Twenty-five studies were identified. Stain use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of PLC (RR = 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.53–0.69). The summary RR for every additional 50 cumulative defined daily doses per year was 0.87 (95% CI = 0.83–0.91). Evidence of a non-linear dose–response relationship between statins and PLC risk was found (Pnon-linearity < 0.01). All individual statins significantly reduced PLC risk, and the risk reduction was more evident with rosuvastatin. The inverse association between statins and PLC risk remained among populations with common risk factors. Subgroup analyses revealed more significant reduction in PLC risk by statins in high- versus non-high-risk populations (Pinteraction = 0.02). Overall, these findings add to our understanding of the association between statins and PLC risk. Whether statin use is causally associated with a reduced risk of PLC should be further studied. PMID:27198922

  12. An Improved Gaussian Mixture Model for Damage Propagation Monitoring of an Aircraft Wing Spar under Changing Structural Boundary Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Fang, Fang

    2016-01-01

    Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) technology is considered to be a key technology to reduce the maintenance cost and meanwhile ensure the operational safety of aircraft structures. It has gradually developed from theoretic and fundamental research to real-world engineering applications in recent decades. The problem of reliable damage monitoring under time-varying conditions is a main issue for the aerospace engineering applications of SHM technology. Among the existing SHM methods, Guided Wave (GW) and piezoelectric sensor-based SHM technique is a promising method due to its high damage sensitivity and long monitoring range. Nevertheless the reliability problem should be addressed. Several methods including environmental parameter compensation, baseline signal dependency reduction and data normalization, have been well studied but limitations remain. This paper proposes a damage propagation monitoring method based on an improved Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). It can be used on-line without any structural mechanical model and a priori knowledge of damage and time-varying conditions. With this method, a baseline GMM is constructed first based on the GW features obtained under time-varying conditions when the structure under monitoring is in the healthy state. When a new GW feature is obtained during the on-line damage monitoring process, the GMM can be updated by an adaptive migration mechanism including dynamic learning and Gaussian components split-merge. The mixture probability distribution structure of the GMM and the number of Gaussian components can be optimized adaptively. Then an on-line GMM can be obtained. Finally, a best match based Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is studied to measure the migration degree between the baseline GMM and the on-line GMM to reveal the weak cumulative changes of the damage propagation mixed in the time-varying influence. A wing spar of an aircraft is used to validate the proposed method. The results indicate that the crack

  13. The health risk of the agricultural production in potentially contaminated sites: an environmental-health risk analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Russo

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Rural areas are often interested by pollution phenomena generated by agricultural activities with a high use of pesticides and/or by anthropic activities, such as industrial plants or illegal waste disposal sites, which may cause even long-range contamination. The risk for human health from the pollutants present in the environment can be quantitatively evaluated by the environmental health risk analysis set out in the Italian Legislative Decree no. 152/2006 (Italian Regulation, 2006. This analysis is the best technical-normative tool to estimate the health risks linked to the pollutants present in the environment but it does not consider the specificity of agricultural soils or the contamination of agricultural products. This study aims to provide this missing technical-normative data by identifying and applying a suitable methodology to evaluate the health risk caused by the ingestion of agricultural products grown in contaminated soils. The risk analysis was applied to two contaminated areas in southern Italy using an innovative methodology based on widely accepted parameters for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs soil-plant bio-transfer factor in the case of horticultural crops. In addition, some concentration limits of PAHs in agricultural soils are proposed that may be of help to the competent authorities (health agencies, local authorities in delineating the areas requiring strict health surveillance of the food products cultivated.

  14. Risk Analysis of Tilapia Recirculating Aquaculture Systems: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kodra, Bledar

    2007-01-01

    Risk Analysis of Tilapia Recirculating Aquaculture Systems: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach Bledar Kodra (ABSTRACT) The purpose of this study is to modify an existing static analytical model developed for a Re-circulating Aquaculture Systems through incorporation of risk considerations to evaluate the economic viability of the system. In addition the objective of this analysis is to provide a well documented risk based analytical system so that individuals (investors/lenders) c...

  15. The risk analysis during production process of an innovative baby carriage with a bike function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nowiński Emil

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the risk assesment of damages occurance in production stage of a babycarriage with a bike function. The analysis of risk is done by using the FMEA – Failure Made and Effect Analysis that is used in aviation and automotive industry. This way of innovative product assessment allows to evaluate the risk of defects and indicate the priorities of quality for key parts as well as the device.

  16. [Risk factors of ischemic heart disease in various occupational groups. II. Complex analysis of risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gałuszka, Z; Kolarzyk, E; Stepniewski, M; Salwińska-Ciećkiewicz, B; Szpak, D

    1991-01-01

    Four hundred four men aged 30 to 59 years, belonging to one of 4 occupational groups were investigated in a standard clinical conditions. Two from those groups were characteristic for steel mill professions: 121 blast furnace workers; exerting strenuous physical effort and working in hot microclimate. 131 operators (the second group) performed work in comfort microclimate conditions not demanding much effort. The third group comprised 73 executives of industry. The fourth group consisted of 79 monks. For all subjects of investigations 8 selected risk factors of ischemic heart disease were evaluated. They included: age, sex, family history, habit of smoking, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood cholesterol level, obesity index and professional physical activity. The level of each risk factor had numerical value in a span from "0" to "8". The sum of all points was decisive to which of 3 groups of risk given man should be accounted. Those 3 groups were arbitrary divided into "low, intermediate and high risk". The highest risk was found for the executives group, and the lowest for blast furnace workers. From the risk factors under investigation highest overall influence on incidence of ischemic heart disease had habit of smoking and obesity. Described here point classification system seems to be very simple and useful for estimation of risk of ischemic heart disease in a given population. PMID:1845321

  17. Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty: an ESDMA Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

  18. NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.

  19. Towards integration of compositional risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation and security testing

    OpenAIRE

    Viehmann, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    This short paper describes ongoing efforts to combine concepts of security risk analysis with security testing into a single process. Using risk analysis artefact composition and Monte Carlo simulation to calculate likelihood values, the method described here is intended to become applicable for complex large scale systems with dynamically changing probability values.

  20. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bell

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative

  1. Risky Business: An Analysis of Teacher Risk Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Daniel H.; Buck, Stuart; Deck, Cary; Mills, Jonathan N.; Shuls, James V.

    2015-01-01

    A range of proposals aim to reform teacher compensation, recruitment, and retention. Teachers have generally not embraced these policies. One potential explanation for their objections is that teachers are relatively risk averse. We examine this hypothesis using a risk-elicitation task common to experimental economics. By comparing preferences of…

  2. Quantitative risk analysis of urban flooding in lowland areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2010-01-01

    Urban flood risk analyses suffer from a lack of quantitative historical data on flooding incidents. Data collection takes place on an ad hoc basis and is usually restricted to severe events. The resulting data deficiency renders quantitative assessment of urban flood risks uncertain. The study repor

  3. The Importance of At-Risk Funding. Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Emily; Griffith, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, states and districts have moved toward making education more equitable. A key component of equity in education is providing additional funds for economically disadvantaged students, commonly referred to as "at-risk students." At-risk students are most often defined as students who qualify for free or reduced priced…

  4. Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

    2016-01-01

    Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

  5. Import risk analysis: A case study of white shrimp in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Supamattaya, K.

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available As the culture industry of black tiger shrimp in Thailand has encountered several problems causing unsuccessful shrimp culture over decades, a new non-indigenous marine species, i.e. Pacific white shrimp (Penaeus vannamei was imported into Thailand as an alternation. However, imported white shrimp may carry some infectious agents which pose serious threats on aquatic species native to Thailand. Therefore, in the present study the import risk analysis (IRA was conducted to identify any hazard and estimate the risk presented by importation of white shrimp. The process involves the risk analysis steps of hazard identification and characterization, risk assessment and risk management. The risks associated with individual diseases and disease agents of white shrimp have been evaluated. Risk assessment conducted using risk evaluation matrix indicated high risk of Taura syndrome virus (TSV, White spot syndrome virus (WSSV and Infectious hypodermal and haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV in imported white shrimp. The iterative process of risk management leads to a set of acceptable measures or strategies for each identified hazard for which the unrestricted risk is considered higher than appropriate level of protection. These measures or strategies will reduce risk to a level that is considered acceptable. Where measures or strategies that reduce the risk associated with a particular hazard to an acceptable level cannot be identified, permission to import the relevant commodity will be denied. The measures implemented in the control of white shrimp imports constitute quarantine and health certificate issued by exporting countries.

  6. Debris flow and landslide hazard mapping and risk analysis in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xilin LIU; Chengjun YU; Peijun SHI; Weihua FANG

    2012-01-01

    This paper assesses the hazardousness,vulnerability and risk of debris flow and landslide in China and compiles maps with a scale of 1∶6000000,based on Geographical Information System (GIS) technology,hazard regionalization map,socioeconomic data from 2000.Integrated hazardousness of debris flow and landslide is equivalent to the sum of debris flow hazardousness and landslide hazardousness.Vulnerability is assessed by employing a simplified assessment model.Risk is calculated by the following formula:Risk =Hazardousness × Vulnerability.The analysis results of assessment of hazardousness,vulnerability and risk show that there are extremely high risk regions of 104 km2,high risk regions of 283008 km2,moderate risk regions of 3161815 km2,low risk regions of 3299604km2,and extremely low risk regions of 2681709 km2.Exploitation activities should be prohibited in extremely high risk and high risk regions and restricted in moderate risk regions.The present study on risk analysis of debris flow and landslide not only sheds new light on the future work in this direction but also provides a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation policy making.

  7. Hepatitis C virus infection increases risk of developing end-stage renal disease using competing risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Jung Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD and hepatitis C virus (HCV infection are closely linked and both increase patient mortality. The association of HCV and risk of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD has not been analyzed with competing risk model. METHOD: We enrolled a prospective cohort of 4,185 patients (mean age, 62 years; 41% female registered in the CKD integrated care program at two affiliated hospitals of Kaohsiung Medical University in Taiwan between November 11, 2002 and May 31, 2009. With competing risk model, we analyzed the association of HCV infection, defined by seropositive of anti-HCV antibody, and hepatitis B virus (HBV infection, defined by seropositive of HBV surface antigen, with the risk of entering ESRD. RESULTS: The prevalence of HCV infection was 7.6% and it increased with the CKD stages (trend test, P<0.001, while the prevalence of HBV infection was 7.4% and no specific trend among CKD stages (tend test, P = 0.1. During the 9,101 person-year follow-up period, there were 446 death and 1,205 patients entering ESRD. After adjusting death as the competing risk, the estimated 5-year cumulative incidence rate of ESRD among patients with and without HCV infection were 52.6% and 38.4%, respectively (modified log-rank, P<0.001. Multivariable analysis showed that HCV infection, but not HBV infection, had higher risk of developing ESRD compared with cases without infection (HCV, HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.07-1.62; HBV, HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.89-1.35. Subgroup analyses showed consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: With death-adjusted competing risk analysis, HCV infection is associated with an increased risk of developing ESRD in CKD cohort.

  8. Collaborative Strategies for Sustainable EU Flood Risk Management: FOSS and Geospatial Tools—Challenges and Opportunities for Operative Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Albano

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to mitigate the impact of natural hazards on European economies and societies, improved risk assessment, and management needs to be pursued. With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in European flood management policy, flood analysis models have become an important part of flood risk management (FRM. In this context, free and open-source (FOSS geospatial models provide better and more complete information to stakeholders regarding their compliance with the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC for effective and collaborative FRM. A geospatial model is an essential tool to address the European challenge for comprehensive and sustainable FRM because it allows for the use of integrated social and economic quantitative risk outcomes in a spatio-temporal domain. Moreover, a FOSS model can support governance processes using an interactive, transparent and collaborative approach, providing a meaningful experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge through a process of guided discovery regarding flood risk management. This article aims to organize the available knowledge and characteristics of the methods available to give operational recommendations and principles that can support authorities, local entities, and the stakeholders involved in decision-making with regard to flood risk management in their compliance with the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC.

  9. Terrorism risks and cost-benefit analysis of aviation security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G; Mueller, John

    2013-05-01

    We evaluate, for the U.S. case, the costs and benefits of three security measures designed to reduce the likelihood of a direct replication of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To do so, we assess risk reduction, losses, and security costs in the context of the full set of security layers. The three measures evaluated are installed physical secondary barriers (IPSB) to restrict access to the hardened cockpit door during door transitions, the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) Program. In the process, we examine an alternate policy measure: doubling the budget of the FFDO program to $44 million per year, installing IPSBs in all U.S. aircraft at a cost of $13.5 million per year, and reducing funding for FAMS by 75% to $300 million per year. A break-even cost-benefit analysis then finds the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack required for the benefit of each security measures to equal its cost. We find that the IPSB is costeffective if the annual attack probability of an otherwise successful attack exceeds 0.5% or one attack every 200 years. The FFDO program is costeffective if the annual attack probability exceeds 2%. On the other hand, more than two otherwise successful attacks per year are required for FAMS to be costeffective. A policy that includes IPSBs, an increased budget for FFDOs, and a reduced budget for FAMS may be a viable policy alternative, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars per year with consequences for security that are, at most, negligible.

  10. Phased mission analysis of maintained systems: a study in reliability risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present study develops a general theory that treats the probability of occurrence of each branch of an event tree and that takes correctly into account the dependencies between systems; incorporates within the general theory the solution of the problem of phased mission analysis. It also includes the general model components, that may or may not be repairable, with general lifetime and repairtime distribution, i.e. in the model repairable systems should be taken into account. Finally a computer program is developed that is based on this general theory, i.e. a computer program that is able to perform fully the probabilistic calculations of a risk analysis and that can handle in a correct way phased mission analysis of repairable systems. The theory is applied to a boiling water reactor accident. (Auth.)

  11. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MohammadRahim Ramezanian

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios..

  12. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Rahim Ramezanian

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios.

  13. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    McManus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  14. Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis: A Case Study of the Normative Peer Review Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaute Wangen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to conduct risk assessments of complex incentive systems, using a case study of the normative Peer Review Process (PRP. This research centers on appliances and adaptations of the Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis (CIRA. First as an approach to Root Cause Analysis of a known incident, and then for a full assessment of the incentives in the PRP together with possible risk treatments. CIRA uses an alternative notion of risk, where risk modeling is in terms of conflicting incentives between the risk owner and the stakeholders concerning the execution of actions. Compared to traditional risk assessment approaches, CIRA provides an insight into the underlying incentives behind a risk, and not just the technical vulnerability, likelihood and consequence. The main contributions of this work are an approach to obtain insight into incentives as root causes, and an approach to detecting and analyzing risks from incentives in the normative PRP. This paper also discusses risk treatments in terms of incentives to make the PRP more robust, together with a discussion of how to approach risk analysis of incentives.

  15. An Information Diffusion Technique for Fire Risk Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘静; 黄崇福

    2004-01-01

    There are many kinds of fires occurring under different conditions. For a specific site, it is difficult to collect sufficient data for analyzing the fire risk. In this paper, we suggest an information diffusion technique to analyze fire risk with a small sample. The information distribution method is applied to change crisp observations into fuzzy sets, and then to effectively construct a fuzzy relationship between fire and surroundings. With the data of Shanghai in winter, we show how to use the technique to analyze the fire risk.

  16. Research on Application of Enhanced Neural Networks in Software Risk Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhenbang Rong; Juhua Chen; Mei Liu; Yong Hu

    2006-01-01

    This paper puts forward a risk analysis model for software projects using enranced neural networks. The data for analysis are acquired through questionnaires from real software projects. To solve the multicollinearity in software risks, the method of principal components analysis is adopted in the model to enhance network stability. To solve uncertainty of the neural networks structure and the uncertainty of the initial weights, genetic algorithms is employed. The experimental result reveals that the precision of software risk analysis can be improved by using the erhanced neural networks model.

  17. Risk analysis system of geo-hazard based on GIS technique

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The socio-economic attribute of geo-hazard made us distinguish it fiom the traditional engineering geology study. It will get more social benefit from the analysis of the geo-hazard in the socio-economic attribute. The hazard and the vulnerability of the element controls the risk level of the regional geo-hazard. The risk analysis supported by GIS in geo-hazard study is one of the most important directions. Based on the author′s studies in recent years, a risk analysis system of regional geo-hazard (RiskAnly) has been developed on the basis of software MAPGIS. The paper introduces the train of system design, the structure and the workflow of RiskAnly. As a case study, the paper also deals with the risk zonation of the regional landslide hazard of China.

  18. Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much uncertainty in root node is produced by each risk, a new index, epistemic importance, is defined. Numerical examples show that the proposed methods could provide a lot of useful information. With the information, effective approaches could be found to control and avoid these sensitive risks, thus keep logistics financial business working more reliable. The proposed method also gives a quantitative measure of risk levels in logistics financial business, which provides guidance for the selection of financing solutions.

  19. Ergonomic lumbar risk analysis of construction workers by NIOSH method

    OpenAIRE

    Cinara Caetano Pereira; Déborah Figueiró Debiase; Joni Márcio de Farias; Kristian Madeira; Willians Cassiano Longen

    2015-01-01

    Work in construction has tasks directly connected with manual transport. One of the body segments suffering greater demand in works with these characteristics is the lumbar spine segment. The aim of this study was to analyze the level of risk of lumbar construction workers in the shipment of materials. The sample was composed of 74 construction workers. Were used as a research tool: the NIOSH method for lumbar risk verification expressed by weight limit recommended (WPR) and the lifting Index...

  20. Issues in qualitative and quantitative risk analysis for developmental toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, C A; Gaylor, D W

    1988-03-01

    The qualitative and quantitative evaluation of risk in developmental toxicology has been discussed in several recent publications. A number of issues still are to be resolved in this area. The qualitative evaluation and interpretation of end points in developmental toxicology depends on an understanding of the biological events leading to the end points observed, the relationships among end points, and their relationship to dose and to maternal toxicity. The interpretation of these end points is also affected by the statistical power of the experiments used for detecting the various end points observed. The quantitative risk assessment attempts to estimate human risk for developmental toxicity as a function of dose. The current approach is to apply safety (uncertainty) factors to the no observed effect level (NOEL). An alternative presented and discussed here is to model the experimental data and apply a safety factor to an estimated risk level to achieve an "acceptable" level of risk. In cases where the dose-response curves upward, this approach provides a conservative estimate of risk. This procedure does not preclude the existence of a threshold dose. More research is needed to develop appropriate dose-response models that can provide better estimates for low-dose extrapolation of developmental effects.

  1. UML-based Requirements Analysis on Risk Pre-control System in Coal Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Hui

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Combining with the present situation of risk management in domestic coal enterprises,the overall flow of risk pre-control system of coal enterprise is designed on the basis of the ISO/FDIS31000 “Risk management—Principles and guidelines” released by the International Standards Organization and risk precontrol management system of safety in coal mine, UML(unified modeling language is used as a tool to establish the model of system requirements analysis, risk management subsystem is taken as an example to elaborate the modeling process of system analysis, the merit of ensuring the accuracy and consistency of system analysis when using UML as the tool of object-oriented system requirements analysis is verified.  

  2. Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.

  3. UML-based Requirements Analysis on Risk Pre-control System in Coal Enterprise

    OpenAIRE

    Huang Hui; Yin Dongyue

    2013-01-01

    Combining with the present situation of risk management in domestic coal enterprises,the overall flow of risk pre-control system of coal enterprise is designed on the basis of the ISO/FDIS31000 “Risk management—Principles and guidelines” released by the International Standards Organization and risk precontrol management system of safety in coal mine, UML(unified modeling language) is used as a tool to establish the model of system requirements analysis, risk management subsystem is taken as a...

  4. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  5. Risk analysis of flood control operation mode with forecast information based on a combination of risk sources

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation mode with forecast information (FCOMFI) is an important basis for the design and implementation of FCOMFI. Most of current researches on this issue are incomplete as they only consider flood forecast errors, but not many other uncertainties in reservoir routing. In order to obtain an integrated risk rate of FCOMFI, this paper analyzes four uncertainties, i.e. hydrological, hydraulic, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty, as well as their probability distributions. On the basis of this analysis, an integrated risk analysis model of FCOMFI for reservoirs and its lower reach is established involving the above-mentioned four uncertainties, and this model is solved by Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. The simulation results, with Baiguishan reservoir as the example, show that the integrated risk rates of FCOMFI are less than those of the flood control operation mode without forecast information. This article presents the highest limited water level that satisfies flood control safety requirements of the lower reach.

  6. Spar paa farten

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lahrmann, Harry; Agerholm, Niels; Tradisauskas, Nerius;

    2007-01-01

    The paper describes an Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) project in Denmark based on Pay As You Drive principles, which means that the ISA equipment both gives a warning when the driver is speeding but also gives penalty points which reduce a promised bonus at 30 % on the insurance rate. In the ...

  7. Geospatial Analysis of Urban Land Use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic Fever Risk - a Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izzah, L. N.; Majid, Z.; Ariff, M. A. M.; Fook, C. K.

    2016-09-01

    Human modification of the natural environment continues to create habitats in which vectors of a wide variety of human and animal pathogens (such as Plasmodium, Aedes aegypti, Arenavirus etc.) thrive if unabated with an enormous potential to negatively affect public health. Typical examples of these modifications include impoundments, dams, irrigation systems, landfills and so on that provide enabled environment for the transmission of Hemorrhagic fever such as malaria, dengue, avian flu, Lassa fever etc. Furthermore, contemporary urban dwelling pattern appears to be associated with the prevalence of Hemorrhagic diseases in recent years. These observations are not peculiar to the developing world, as urban expansion also contributes significantly to mosquito and other vectors habitats. This habitats offer breeding ground to some vector virus populations. The key to disease control is developing an understanding of the contribution of human landscape modification to vector-borne pathogen transmission and how a balance may be achieved between human development, public health, and responsible urban land use. A comprehensive review of urban land use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic fever risk has been conducted in this paper. The study found that most of the available literatures dwell more on the impact of urban land use on malaria and dengue fevers; however, studies are yet to be found discussing the implications of urban land use on the risk of Ebola, Lassa and other non-mosquito borne VHFs. A relational model for investigating the influence of urban land use change pattern on the risk of Hemorrhagic fever has been proposed in this study.

  8. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  9. Risk Analysis Method Research%风险分析方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭红芳; 曾向阳

    2001-01-01

    The risk analysis is an important component of risk management, and an important precondition of safety management system of information system. This paper attempts to research a set of models for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, that is, analyze the probability of safety events of information system and the risk mode which is the prerequisite resulting in risk events by the risk tree analysis,then analyze the risk loss and the criticality of risk mode by RMECA; finally make risk assessment and decision by risk matrix.%风险分析是信息系统风险管理的重要组成部分,是建立信息系统安全管理体系的重要前提.试图探讨一套可用于定性及定量风险分析的模型,即用风险树分析法对信息系统安全事件发生概率以及导致安全事件的必要条件-风险模式进行分析,进而用风险模式.影响及危害度分析法对风险模式的危害度及风险损失进行分析,最后用风险矩阵对风险作出最后的评估与决策.

  10. Integrated risk/decision analysis for protection of groundwater from hazardous material contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Public concern over groundwater contamination has focused attention on the management of hazardous materials in the U.S. Recent developments in the field of risk assessment can provide the engineering profession with the necessary tools for responding to this public concern. This paper presents an integrated risk/decision analysis methodology needed for systematically analyzing alternative courses of actions and their probable impact on groundwater resources. The analysis begins with the development of an event tree. A list of all possible event sequences to be considered has been compiled and a detailed analysis of the consequences of each event is conducted. Stemming from a decision on development over the recharge zone of an aquifer, and leading to the introduction of hazardous materials into the groundwater and contamination of the potable water supply, all events have been sequentially structured with both their positive and negative outcomes. The next step is to develop a comprehensive fault tree from the event tree. The logic relationships described by the fault tree are translated into algebraic operations allowing the objective determination of risk for any pathway leading from the initial policy decisions to the final consequence of contaminated groundwater. Risk acceptability analysis is based on historical risk data for the situations being considered. Probability limits for each potential risk are determined for each risk category associated with the specific situation and based on the revealed preference concept in quantitative psychology. The categorization of risks permits the assessment of acceptable risk for situations not considered in the past. Comparison of these risk limits with the risk probability values calculated from the event tree/fault tree analysis allows decision-makers to screen alternative courses of action based on their risk acceptabilities

  11. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

  12. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

  13. Fracture Risk Analysis in Postmenopausal Women with the Current Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salih Gultekin

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: This study was conducted to assess the risk of fracture in postmenopausal women using dual x-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density (DEXA-BMD as a reference method and FRAX as a new clinical risk assessment tool. Material and Method: 168 postmenopausal women (> 50 years evaluating with DEXA-BMD and FRAX methods were included in the study. Femoral BMD (F-BMD, femoral T-score (F-Ts, lumbar spine BMD (L-BMD and lumbar spine T-score (L-Ts values of the patients were calculated. Fracture risk assessments were carried out using T-score values and FRAX 10-year hip fracture (HF and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF risk ratios. Data were analyzed statistically. Results: According to the results of F-Ts and L-Ts, 44/168 (26.2% and 65/168 (38.7% of patients had osteoporosis as compatible with high fracture risk. In osteoporotic patients, mean values for F-Ts L-Ts, F-BMD and L-BMD were -2.8 ± 0.4, -3.2 ± 0.5, 0.530 ± 0.049 and 0.682 ± 0.066, respectively. There were found to be high MOF risk in 16/168 (9.5% and high HF risk in 51/168 (30.4% of patients according to FRAX. Positive correlations were determined between F-Ts and L-Ts (moderate; rho = 0.424, p <0.05 and between HF and MOF (strong; rho = 0.958, p <0001. There were strong negative correlations among HF and MOF with F-Ts (respectively, rho = -0.897 and rho = -0.844, p <0.001 and moderate negative correlations among HF and MOF with L-Ts (respectively, rho = -0.535 and rho = - 0.567, p <0.05. Discussion: In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, risk assessment by the FRAX besides the DXA-BMD measurements can be useful for not to be missed of patients with high risk of fracture.

  14. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  15. Analysis of the exposure of Polish lakes to flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasiecznik-Dominiak Anna

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Flooding constitutes one of the main natural hazards in Poland, which causes enormous social, economic and environmental losses. The main causes of the occurrence of floods include intensive rainfall, rapid melting of snow and ice cover, as well as strong gusts of wind from the sea. Based on the resilience theory (resistance, elasticity, which constitutes an efficient tool for the description of the social-ecological system capability or components thereof to mitigate the effects of dangerous events, as well as the capability of reconstructing and adapting the system to new conditions, the authors have analysed the exposure of Polish lakes to flood risks with a probability of occurrence Q0.2%, Q1% and Q10%. In order to determine the level of exposure of lakes to the risk of flooding by flood waters, studies were conducted using the flood hazard and flood risk maps which were developed under the Project entitled “IT System of the Country’s Protection against Extreme Hazards”. The result of the efforts of the group of authors is the determination of the number of lakes, which are located in the flood risk area Q0.2%, Q1% and Q10%, including division into risk level groups (low, moderate and high. The results presented in the paper may constitute a contribution to further, more detailed studies concerning assessment of the vulnerability of Polish lakes located in the flood prone area.

  16. Reduced cancer risk in vegetarians: an analysis of recent reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanou, Amy Joy; Svenson, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    This report reviews current evidence regarding the relationship between vegetarian eating patterns and cancer risk. Although plant-based diets including vegetarian and vegan diets are generally considered to be cancer protective, very few studies have directly addressed this question. Most large prospective observational studies show that vegetarian diets are at least modestly cancer protective (10%-12% reduction in overall cancer risk) although results for specific cancers are less clear. No long-term randomized clinical trials have been conducted to address this relationship. However, a broad body of evidence links specific plant foods such as fruits and vegetables, plant constituents such as fiber, antioxidants and other phytochemicals, and achieving and maintaining a healthy weight to reduced risk of cancer diagnosis and recurrence. Also, research links the consumption of meat, especially red and processed meats, to increased risk of several types of cancer. Vegetarian and vegan diets increase beneficial plant foods and plant constituents, eliminate the intake of red and processed meat, and aid in achieving and maintaining a healthy weight. The direct and indirect evidence taken together suggests that vegetarian diets are a useful strategy for reducing risk of cancer. PMID:21407994

  17. Reduced cancer risk in vegetarians: an analysis of recent reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Joy Lanou

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Amy Joy Lanou1, Barbara Svenson21Department of Health and Wellness, 2Ramsey Library, University of North Carolina Asheville, Asheville, NC, USAAbstract: This report reviews current evidence regarding the relationship between vegetarian eating patterns and cancer risk. Although plant-based diets including vegetarian and vegan diets are generally considered to be cancer protective, very few studies have directly addressed this question. Most large prospective observational studies show that vegetarian diets are at least modestly cancer protective (10%–12% reduction in overall cancer risk although results for specific cancers are less clear. No long-term randomized clinical trials have been conducted to address this relationship. However, a broad body of evidence links specific plant foods such as fruits and vegetables, plant constituents such as fiber, antioxidants and other phytochemicals, and achieving and maintaining a healthy weight to reduced risk of cancer diagnosis and recurrence. Also, research links the consumption of meat, especially red and processed meats, to increased risk of several types of cancer. Vegetarian and vegan diets increase beneficial plant foods and plant constituents, eliminate the intake of red and processed meat, and aid in achieving and maintaining a healthy weight. The direct and indirect evidence taken together suggests that vegetarian diets are a useful strategy for reducing risk of cancer.Keywords: diet, vegan, prevention

  18. 77 FR 22557 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Strawberry Fruit From Egypt...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-16

    .... SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks... via the importation of fresh strawberry fruit from Egypt. We are making the pest risk analysis... process for approving the importation of commodities that, based on the findings of a pest risk...

  19. Small theories and large risks--is risk analysis relevant for epistemology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirković, Milan M

    2012-11-01

    Ought we to take seriously large risks predicted by "exotic" or improbable theories? We routinely assess risks on the basis or either common sense, or some developed theoretical framework based on the best available scientific explanations. Recently, there has been a substantial increase of interest in the low-probability "failure modes" of well-established theories, which can involve global catastrophic risks. However, here I wish to discuss a partially antithetical situation: alternative, low-probability ("small") scientific theories predicting catastrophic outcomes with large probability. I argue that there is an important methodological issue (determining what counts as the best available explanation in cases where the theories involved describe possibilities of extremely destructive global catastrophes), which has been neglected thus far. There is no simple answer to the correct method for dealing with high-probability high-stakes risks following from low-probability theories that still cannot be rejected outright, and much further work is required in this area. I further argue that cases like these are more numerous than usually assumed, for reasons including cognitive biases, sociological issues in science and the media image of science. If that is indeed so, it might lead to a greater weight of these cases in areas such as moral deliberation and policy making.

  20. Economic Risk Analysis of Experimental Cropping Systems Using the SMART Risk Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recently, a variant of stochastic dominance called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) has been developed and applied. Unlike traditional stochastic dominance approaches, SERF uses the concept of certainty equivalents (CEs) to rank a set of risk-efficient alternatives instead of ...