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Sample records for analysis risk spar

  1. Dynamic Analysis of Offshore Spar Platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Jain

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Offshore spar platform is a compliant offshore floating structure used for deep water applications for drilling, production, processing, storage and offloading of ocean deposits. The offshore spar platform is modelled as a rigid body with six degrees-of-freedom (DOFs, connected to the sea bed by multicomponent catenary cables which consist of a mooring line, a clump weight, and an anchor line attached to the fairlcads. The response-dependent stiffness matrix consists of three parts: (i the restoring hydrostatic force, and the stiffness due to cables. (ii nonlinear horizontal springs, and (iii nonlinear vertical springs. A unidirectional regular wave model is used for computing the incident wave kinematics by Airy's wave theory and  hydrodynamic force by Morison's equation. The response analysis is performed in timc domain using the iterative incremental Newmark's method. Numerical studies have been conducted for sea state conditions with and without coupling of DOFs.

  2. Nonlinear coupled dynamics analysis of a truss spar platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cheng-xi; Zhang, Jun

    2016-12-01

    Accurate prediction of the offshore structure motion response and associate mooring line tension is important in both technical applications and scientific research. In our study, a truss spar platform, operated in Gulf of Mexico, is numerically simulated and analyzed by an in-house numerical code `COUPLE'. Both the platform motion responses and associated mooring line tension are calculated and investigated through a time domain nonlinear coupled dynamic analysis. Satisfactory agreement between the simulation and corresponding field measurements is in general reached, indicating that the numerical code can be used to conduct the time-domain analysis of a truss spar interacting with its mooring and riser system. Based on the comparison between linear and nonlinear results, the relative importance of nonlinearity in predicting the platform motion response and mooring line tensions is assessed and presented. Through the coupled and quasi-static analysis, the importance of the dynamic coupling effect between the platform hull and the mooring/riser system in predicting the mooring line tension and platform motions is quantified. These results may provide essential information pertaining to facilitate the numerical simulation and design of the large scale offshore structures.

  3. Analytical model and stability analysis of the leading edge spar of a passively morphing ornithopter wing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wissa, Aimy; Calogero, Joseph; Wereley, Norman; Hubbard, James E; Frecker, Mary

    2015-10-26

    This paper presents the stability analysis of the leading edge spar of a flapping wing unmanned air vehicle with a compliant spine inserted in it. The compliant spine is a mechanism that was designed to be flexible during the upstroke and stiff during the downstroke. Inserting a variable stiffness mechanism into the leading edge spar affects its structural stability. The model for the spar-spine system was formulated in terms of the well-known Mathieu's equation, in which the compliant spine was modeled as a torsional spring with a sinusoidal stiffness function. Experimental data was used to validate the model and results show agreement within 11%. The structural stability of the leading edge spar-spine system was determined analytically and graphically using a phase plane plot and Strutt diagrams. Lastly, a torsional viscous damper was added to the leading edge spar-spine model to investigate the effect of damping on stability. Results show that for the un-damped case, the leading edge spar-spine response was stable and bounded; however, there were areas of instability that appear for a range of spine upstroke and downstroke stiffnesses. Results also show that there exist a damping ratio between 0.2 and 0.5, for which the leading edge spar-spine system was stable for all values of spine upstroke and downstroke stiffnesses.

  4. SPAR Model Structural Efficiencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Schroeder; Dan Henry

    2013-04-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are supporting initiatives aimed at improving the quality of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Included in these initiatives are the resolution of key technical issues that are have been judged to have the most significant influence on the baseline core damage frequency of the NRC’s Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and licensee PRA models. Previous work addressed issues associated with support system initiating event analysis and loss of off-site power/station blackout analysis. The key technical issues were: • Development of a standard methodology and implementation of support system initiating events • Treatment of loss of offsite power • Development of standard approach for emergency core cooling following containment failure Some of the related issues were not fully resolved. This project continues the effort to resolve outstanding issues. The work scope was intended to include substantial collaboration with EPRI; however, EPRI has had other higher priority initiatives to support. Therefore this project has addressed SPAR modeling issues. The issues addressed are • SPAR model transparency • Common cause failure modeling deficiencies and approaches • Ac and dc modeling deficiencies and approaches • Instrumentation and control system modeling deficiencies and approaches

  5. An Integrated Structural Strength Analysis Method for Spar Type Floating Wind Turbine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡志强; 刘毅; 王晋

    2016-01-01

    An integrated structural strength analysis method for a Spar type floating wind turbine is proposed in this paper, and technical issues related to turbine structure modeling and stress combination are also addressed. The NREL-5MW “Hywind” Spar type wind turbine is adopted as study object. Time-domain dynamic coupled simulations are performed by a fully-coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool, FAST, on the purpose of obtaining the dynamic characteristics of the floating wind turbine, and determining parameters for design load cases of finite element calculation. Then design load cases are identified, and finite element analyses are performed for these design load cases. The structural stresses due to wave-induced loads and wind-induced loads are calculated, and then combined to assess the structural strength of the floating wind turbine. The feasibility of the proposed structural strength analysis method for floating wind turbines is then validated.

  6. Proposed SPAR Modeling Method for Quantifying Time Dependent Station Blackout Cut Sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John A. Schroeder

    2010-06-01

    Abstract: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (USNRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and industry risk models take similar approaches to analyzing the risk associated with loss of offsite power and station blackout (LOOP/SBO) events at nuclear reactor plants. In both SPAR models and industry models, core damage risk resulting from a LOOP/SBO event is analyzed using a combination of event trees and fault trees that produce cut sets that are, in turn, quantified to obtain a numerical estimate of the resulting core damage risk. A proposed SPAR method for quantifying the time-dependent cut sets is sometimes referred to as a convolution method. The SPAR method reflects assumptions about the timing of emergency diesel failures, the timing of subsequent attempts at emergency diesel repair, and the timing of core damage that may be different than those often used in industry models. This paper describes the proposed SPAR method.

  7. Design Analysis And Application Of Nylon66 In Rotary Spars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.K. Harish Kumar

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Technology has led to the increased use of plastics as replacement to conventional materials in various sectors. The use of alloy steels in various rotary spares such as gears, cams, bearings, valve seats and other bearing and wear applications that requires quite operation, low coefficient of friction and wear resistance shall be replaced with nylon 66 as per requirements. In the present work I am applying nylon66 in gears and sprocket wheels used in automotive it is proposed to substitute the metallic rotating spares like gears and sprockets with nylon 66 to reduce the weight and noise. For this purpose different types of polymers were considered namely Polyethylene, PVC, Polystyrene, Polypropylene and Nylon66 and their viability are checked with their counterpart metallic gear (Cast iron. Based on the static analysis, the best plastic material is recommended for the purpose.3D model of gears and sprocket wheel chain assembly has been modeled by using Pro-E WF4. The models are then pre-processed using hyper mesh 10 .

  8. The NRC's SPAR Models: Current Status, Future Development, and Modeling Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert F. Buell

    2008-09-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) play an increasingly important role in the regulatory framework of the U.S. nuclear power industry. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) relies on a set of plant-specific Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models to provide critical risk-based input to the regulatory process. The Significance Determination Process (SDP), Management Directive 8.3 - NRC Incident Investigation Program, Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) and Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) programs are among the regulatory initiatives that receive significant input from the SPAR models. Other uses of the SPAR models include: Screening & Resolution of Generic Safety Issues, License Amendment reviews and Notice of Enforcement Discretion (NOEDs). This paper presents the current status of SPAR model development activities, future development objectives, and issues related to the development, verification and maintenance of the SPAR models.

  9. Operational Modal Analysis of a Spar-Type Floating Platform Using Frequency Domain Decomposition Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Ruzzo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available System identification of offshore floating platforms is usually performed by testing small-scale models in wave tanks, where controlled conditions, such as still water for free decay tests, regular and irregular wave loading can be represented. However, this approach may result in constraints on model dimensions, testing time, and costs of the experimental activity. For such reasons, intermediate-scale field modelling of offshore floating structures may become an interesting as well as cost-effective alternative in a near future. Clearly, since the open sea is not a controlled environment, traditional system identification may become challenging and less precise. In this paper, a new approach based on Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD method for Operational Modal Analysis is proposed and validated against numerical simulations in ANSYS AQWA v.16.0 on a simple spar-type structure. The results obtained match well with numerical predictions, showing that this new approach, opportunely coupled with more traditional wave tanks techniques, proves to be very promising to perform field-site identification of the model structures.

  10. Response Analysis of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Under Atmospheric Icing Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Etemaddar, Mahmoud; Hansen, Martin Otto Laver; Moan, Torgeir

    2014-01-01

    One of the challenges for the development of wind energy in offshore cold-climate regions is atmospheric icing. This paper examines the effects of atmospheric icing on power production, overall performance, and extreme loads of a 5-MW spar-type floating offshore wind turbine during power production...

  11. Study of composite wind turbine spars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Syed Shahrukh

    This report presents a theoretical, numerical and experimental study of composite wind turbine spars under bending loads. Spars were made from commercially available glass/ carbon fiber material. The spars were composed of uniaxial (0°) flanges and biaxial (+/-45°) shear webs. Items of particular study were co-block polymer additives in vinyl ester resins, a presumably new spar design, and using carbon fiber pultrusions for spar caps (flanges). Composites are very strong and thus tend to be thin, which exacerbates the problem of buckling. Further, fibers also buckle at the micro level, leading to lower effective compression strength than tensile strength of a composite. Many structures tend to buckle in out of plane direction which can cause early and abrupt failure. A 3-point bend test rig was manufactured in-house for experimentally testing composite spars. The experiments indicated abrupt failure without any sign or other form of damage. Limited number of spars was made with slightly different construction. All spars were subjected to same testing environment. Finite element analyses were performed in order to shed light on the failure mechanisms leading to catastrophic failure. The FE code Ansys was used for the analyses. 3D models were developed, loads were applied, and linear elastic static as well as buckling analyses were performed. The results obtained from analysis were in reasonable agreement with the experimental tests.

  12. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    April M. Whaley; Dana L. Kelly; Ronald L. Boring; William J. Galyean

    2012-06-01

    Step-by-step guidance was developed recently at Idaho National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission on the use of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This work was done to address SPAR-H user needs, specifically requests for additional guidance on the proper application of various aspects of the methodology. This paper overviews the steps of the SPAR-H analysis process and highlights some of the most important insights gained during the development of the step-by-step directions. This supplemental guidance for analysts is applicable when plant-specific information is available, and goes beyond the general guidance provided in existing SPAR-H documentation. The steps highlighted in this paper are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff.

  13. Stochastic Analysis of Nonlinear Coupled Heave-Pitch Motion for the Truss Spar Platform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenjun Shen; Yougang Tang

    2011-01-01

    Considering the static stability and the change of the displacement volume,including the influences of higher order nonlinear terms and the instantaneous wave surface,the nonlinear coupled heave-pitch motion was established in stochastic waves.The responses of heave-pitch coupling motion for the Truss Spar platform were investigated.It was found that,when the characteristic frequency of a stochastic wave is close to the natural heave frequency,the large amplitude pitch motion is induced under the parametric-forced excitation,which is called the Mathieu instability.It was observed that the heave mode energy is transferred to pitch mode when the heave motion amplitude exceeds a certain extent.In addition,the probability of internal resonant heave-pitch motion is greatly reduced while the characteristic wave frequency is away from the natural heave frequency.

  14. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  15. Human reliability analysis of the Tehran research reactor using the SPAR-H method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barati Ramin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to cover human reliability analysis of the Tehran research reactor using an appropriate method for the representation of human failure probabilities. In the present work, the technique for human error rate prediction and standardized plant analysis risk-human reliability methods have been utilized to quantify different categories of human errors, applied extensively to nuclear power plants. Human reliability analysis is, indeed, an integral and significant part of probabilistic safety analysis studies, without it probabilistic safety analysis would not be a systematic and complete representation of actual plant risks. In addition, possible human errors in research reactors constitute a significant part of the associated risk of such installations and including them in a probabilistic safety analysis for such facilities is a complicated issue. Standardized plant analysis risk-human can be used to address these concerns; it is a well-documented and systematic human reliability analysis system with tables for human performance choices prepared in consultation with experts in the domain. In this method, performance shaping factors are selected via tables, human action dependencies are accounted for, and the method is well designed for the intended use. In this study, in consultations with reactor operators, human errors are identified and adequate performance shaping factors are assigned to produce proper human failure probabilities. Our importance analysis has revealed that human action contained in the possibility of an external object falling on the reactor core are the most significant human errors concerning the Tehran research reactor to be considered in reactor emergency operating procedures and operator training programs aimed at improving reactor safety.

  16. Crack Failure Analysis of Wing Rear Spar Fitting%机翼后梁接头裂纹故障分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    石飞; 彭志军; 叶彬

    2014-01-01

    Objective In order to avoid the repeated occurrence of similar failures, the causes for the crack on the wing rear spar fitting of a certain type aircraft were analyzed. Methods Force analysis was conducted for the wing rear spar fit-ting, and based on the analysis of the structural assembly relationships of the wing rear spar fitting. FEM was used to calcu-late the stress on the fitting. Besides, macroscopic and microscopic analyses were performed for the crack fracture to deter-mine the cause for the crack. Results The crack of aircraft wing rear spar fitting was caused by stress corrosion. Conclu-sion The material of the rear spar fitting LD5 was sensitive to stress corrosion. The fitting was subjected to relatively large assembly tension stress in the assembly process, and the corrosion preventive measure for the surface of the rear spar fitting was defective, therefore stress corrosion cracking occurred in the harsh servicing environment.%目的:分析某型飞机机翼后梁接头裂纹形成的原因,避免类似问题的重复发生。方法通过对机翼后梁接头进行受力分析,在对机翼后梁接头结构装配关系进行分析的基础上,采用有限元方法对接头进行应力计算,并对裂纹断口进行宏观和微观分析,确定产生裂纹的原因。结果机翼后梁接头裂纹为应力腐蚀裂纹。结论机翼后梁接头材料为LD5,对应力腐蚀敏感,接头在装配过程中存在较大的装配拉应力,而接头表面的腐蚀防护又存在缺陷,在较严酷的服役环境作用下发生了应力腐蚀开裂。

  17. Sparring And Neurological Function In Professional Boxers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John W Stiller

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available AbstractDespite increased interest regarding the potentially long-term negative impact of chronic traumatic brain injury (CTBI, limited research had been conducted regarding such injuries and neurological outcomes in real world settings. To increase understanding regarding the relationship between sparring (e.g., number of years actively training for professional boxing and neurological functioning, professional boxers (n = 237 who competed in Maryland between 2003 to 2008 completed measures regarding sparring exposure (Cumulative Sparring Index; CSI and performance on tests of cognition (Symbol Digit Modalities Test; SDMT and balance (Sharpened Romberg Test; SRT. Measures were completed prior to boxing matches. Higher scores on the CSI (increased sparring exposure were associated with poorer performance on both tests of cognition (SDMT and balance (SRT. A threshold effect was noted regarding performance on the SDMT, with those reporting CSI values greater than about 150 experiencing a decline in cognition. A history of frequent and/or intense sparring may pose a significant risk for developing boxing associated neurological sequelae. Implementing administration of clinically meaningful tests before bouts, such as the CSI, SDMT, and/or the SRT, as well as documentation of results into the boxer’s physicals or medical profiles may be an important step for improving boxing safety.

  18. Analysis of genetic variation in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) genotypes with various agronomical traits using SPAR methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satish, Lakkakula; Shilpha, Jayabalan; Pandian, Subramani; Rency, Arockiam Sagina; Rathinapriya, Periyasamy; Ceasar, Stanislaus Antony; Largia, Muthiah Joe Virgin; Kumar, Are Ashok; Ramesh, Manikandan

    2016-01-15

    Genetic variation among 45 genotypes of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) representing seven subpopulations was assessed using three single primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods viz., inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR), random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and directed amplification of minisatellite-region DNA (DAMD). Totally 15 ISSR, 8 RAPD and 7 DAMD primers generated 263 amplification products, accounting for 84.6% polymorphism across all the genotypes. The Mantel's test of correlation revealed the best correlation between ISSR and cumulative data with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.84. Assessment of population diversity indicated that the maximum intra population genetic diversity was recorded among high FeZn lines (HFL) having maximum values of Nei's genetic diversity (h) (0.244), Shannon information index (I) (0.368) and the percentage of polymorphic loci (Pp) (72.65%) while the corresponding lowest values of 0.074, 0.109 and 17.95% respectively were observed among the members of MDT subpopulation. The mean coefficient of gene differentiation (GST) and the gene flow (Nm) between populations were observed to be 0.396 and 0.7680 respectively. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) suggested that maximum genetic variation exists within populations (95%) than among populations (5%). Thus the information obtained from this study could be utilized in sorghum breeding programmes for the development of varieties with improved nutrition and agronomic values in future.

  19. Stress Analysis of Outer Wing Bulkheads and Auxiliary Spar - Model YB-36 and B-36A

    Science.gov (United States)

    1947-04-01

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  20. Guidance on Dependence Assessment in SPAR-H

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    April M. Whaley

    2012-06-01

    As part of the effort to develop the SPAR-H user guidance, particular attention was paid to the assessment of dependence in order to address user questions about proper application of dependence. This paper presents a discussion of dependence from a psychological perspective and provides guidance on applying this information during the qualitative analysis of dependence to ensure more realistic and appropriate dependence assessments with the SPAR-H method. While this guidance was developed with SPAR-H in mind, it may be informative to other human reliability analysis methods that also use a THERP-based dependence approach, particularly if applied at the human failure event level.

  1. Apollo Telescope Mount Spar Assembly

    Science.gov (United States)

    1969-01-01

    The Apollo Telescope Mount (ATM), designed and developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center, served as the primary scientific instrument unit aboard the Skylab. The ATM contained eight complex astronomical instruments designed to observe the Sun over a wide spectrum from visible light to x-rays. This image shows the ATM spar assembly. All solar telescopes, the fine Sun sensors, and some auxiliary systems are mounted on the spar, a cruciform lightweight perforated metal mounting panel that divides the 10-foot long canister lengthwise into four equal compartments. The spar assembly was nested inside a cylindrical canister that fit into the rack, a complex frame, and was protected by the solar shield.

  2. HUMAN ERROR QUANTIFICATION USING PERFORMANCE SHAPING FACTORS IN THE SPAR-H METHOD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harold S. Blackman; David I. Gertman; Ronald L. Boring

    2008-09-01

    This paper describes a cognitively based human reliability analysis (HRA) quantification technique for estimating the human error probabilities (HEPs) associated with operator and crew actions at nuclear power plants. The method described here, Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method, was developed to aid in characterizing and quantifying human performance at nuclear power plants. The intent was to develop a defensible method that would consider all factors that may influence performance. In the SPAR-H approach, calculation of HEP rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action-oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor multipliers upon those nominal error rates.

  3. Turbine blade with spar and shell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Daniel O [Palm City, FL; Peterson, Ross H [Loxahatchee, FL

    2012-04-24

    A turbine blade with a spar and shell construction in which the spar and the shell are both secured within two platform halves. The spar and the shell each include outward extending ledges on the bottom ends that fit within grooves formed on the inner sides of the platform halves to secure the spar and the shell against radial movement when the two platform halves are joined. The shell is also secured to the spar by hooks extending from the shell that slide into grooves formed on the outer surface of the spar. The hooks form a serpentine flow cooling passage between the shell and the spar. The spar includes cooling holes on the lower end in the leading edge region to discharge cooling air supplied through the platform root and into the leading edge cooling channel.

  4. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  5. Full time-domain nonlinear coupled dynamic analysis of a truss spar and its mooring/riser system in irregular wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, MinDong; Teng, Bin; Xiao, LongFei; Ning, DeZhi; Shi, ZhongMin; Qu, Yan

    2014-01-01

    A new full time-domain nonlinear coupled method has been established and then applied to predict the responses of a Truss Spar in irregular wave. For the coupled analysis, a second-order time-domain approach is developed to calculate the wave forces, and a finite element model based on rod theory is established in three dimensions in a global coordinate system. In numerical implementation, the higher-order boundary element method (HOBEM) is employed to solve the velocity potential, and the 4th-order Adams-Bashforth-Moultn scheme is used to update the second-order wave surface. In deriving convergent solutions, the hull displacements and mooring tensions are kept consistent at the fairlead and the motion equations of platform and mooring-lines/risers are solved simultaneously using Newmark- β integration scheme including Newton-Raphson iteration. Both the coupled quasi-static analysis and the coupled dynamic analysis are performed. The numerical simulation results are also compared with the model test results, and they coincide very well as a whole. The slow-drift responses can be clearly observed in the time histories of displacements and mooring tensions. Some important characteristics of the coupled responses are concluded.

  6. Wind-wave induced dynamic response analysis for motions and mooring loads of a spar-type offshore floating wind turbine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马钰; 肖龙飞; 胡志强

    2014-01-01

    Due to the energy crisis and the environmental issues like pollution and global warming, the exploration for renewable and clean energies becomes crucial. The offshore floating wind turbines (OFWTs) draw a great deal of attention recently as a means to exploit the steadier and stronger wind resources available in deep water seas. This paper studies the hydrodynamic characteristics of a spar-type wind turbine known as the OC3-Hywind concept and the dynamic responses of the turbine. Response characteristics of motions and mooring loads of the system under different sea states are evaluated and the effects of the loads induced by the wind and the wave on the system are discussed. The calculations are carried out with the numerical simulation code FAST in the time domain and the frequency analysis is made by using the FFT method. The results and the conclusions from this paper might help better understand the behavior characteristics of the floating wind turbine system under actual ocean environments and provide valuable data in design and engineering practice.

  7. Spar på Farten

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agerholm, Niels; Juhl, Jens; Sonne, Ian Berg

    Spar på Farten er et Nordjysk INFATI projekt (Intelligent FartTilpasning). Projektet er baseret på et princip om, at i jo mindre grad hastighedsgrænsen overskrides, jo mere sparer den enkelte forsøgsdeltager på sin bilforsikring. Når overskridelse af hastighedsgrænsen skal gøres op i penge, er det...

  8. Pulsed eddy current inspection of CF-188 inner wing spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horan, Peter Francis

    Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) CF-188 Hornet aircraft engineering authorities have stated a requirement for a Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technique to detect Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) in the inner wing spars without fastener or composite wing skin removal. Current radiographic inspections involve significant aircraft downtime, and Pulsed Eddy Current (PEC) inspection is proposed as a solution. The aluminum inner wing spars of CF-188 Hornet aircraft may undergo stress corrosion cracking (SCC) along the spar between the fasteners that secure carbon-fiber/ epoxy composite skin to the wing. Inspection of the spar through the wing skin is required to avoid wing disassembly. The thickness of the wing skin varies between 8 and 20 mm (0.3 to 0.8 inch) and fasteners may be either titanium or ferrous. PEC generated by a probe centered over a fastener, demonstrates capability of detecting simulated cracks within spars with the wing skin present. Comparison of signals from separate sensors, mounted to either side of the excitation coil, is used to detect differences in induced eddy current fields, which arise in the presence of cracks. To overcome variability in PEC signal response due to variation in 1) skin thickness, 2) fastener material and size, and 3) centering over fasteners, a large calibration data set is acquired. Multi-dimensional scores from a Modified Principal Components Analysis (PCA) of the data are reduced to one dimension (1D) using a Discriminant Analysis method. Under inspection conditions, calibrated PCA scores combined with discriminant analysis permit rapid real time go/no-go PEC detection of cracks in CF-188 inner wing spar. Probe designs using both pickup coils and Giant Magnetoresistive (GMR) sensors were tested on samples with the same ferrous and titanium fasteners found on the CF-188. Flaws were correctly detected at lift-offs of up to 21mm utilizing a variety of insulating skin materials simulating the carbon-fibre reinforced polymer

  9. Study on Collision Characters for SPAR Platform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Zhi-qiang; CUI Wei-cheng

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents the research on the external mechanism of collision characters for a SPAR platform. The collision characters of SPAR platform have not attracted so much attention as that of ships in the past, because short of this kind of collision accidents reported. But with the increasing number of SPAR platforms in the world, the possibility of such kind of accident also increases. Therefore, it is necessary to master the character of SPAR collision. Model test technique is employed to study the external mechanism. The collision scenario is a ship colliding with a SPAR platform moored in the site with 1500 meters water depth. The striking ship hits the SPAR platform on the hard tank near water surface in its longitudinal direction. The specifics of the SPAR's motions and the tension forces of the mooring lines are collected to summarize the hydrodynamic characters in the collision scenario. It is found that the maximal displacements and the maximal pitch angles of the SPAR platform, and the maximal tension forces of mooring lines are all linearly proportional to the initial velocity of the striking ship basically. Mooring lines play elastic roles in the collision course.

  10. Response Analysis and Comparison of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine and an Onshore Wind Turbine under Blade Pitch Controller Faults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Etemaddar, M.; Blanke, Mogens; Gao, Z.

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyses the effects of three pitch controller faults on the responses of an onshorewind turbine and a spar-type offshore floating wind turbine. These faults include:a stuck blade pitch actuator,a fixed value fault and a bias fault of the blade pitch sensor.The faults are modeled...... amplitudes are investigated by comparing the same response under normal operation.The severities of the individual faults are categorized by the extreme values of structural loads and the structural components are sorted based on the magnitude of the fault effects on the extreme values.The pitch sensor fixed...

  11. Design, Manufacture and Testing of A Bend-Twist D-Spar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ong, Cheng-Huat; Tsai, Stephen W.

    1999-06-01

    Studies have indicated that an adaptive wind turbine blade design can significantly enhance the performance of the wind turbine blade on energy capture and load mitigation. In order to realize the potential benefits of aeroelastic tailoring, a bend-twist D-spar, which is the backbone of a blade, was designed and fabricated to achieve the objectives of having maximum bend-twist coupling and fulfilling desirable structural properties (031 & GJ). Two bend-twist D-spars, a hybrid of glass and carbon fibers and an all-carbon D-spar, were fabricated using a bladder process. One of the D-spars, the hybrid D-spar, was subjected to a cantilever static test and modal testing. Various parameters such as materials, laminate schedule, thickness and internal rib were examined in designing a bend-twist D-spar. The fabrication tooling, the lay-up process and the joint design for two symmetric clamshells are described in this report. Finally, comparisons between the experimental test results and numerical results are presented. The comparisons indicate that the numerical analysis (static and modal analysis) agrees well with test results.

  12. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    W. J. Galyean; A. M. Whaley; D. L. Kelly; R. L. Boring

    2011-05-01

    This guide provides step-by-step guidance on the use of the SPAR-H method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This guide is intended to be used with the worksheets provided in: 'The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method,' NUREG/CR-6883, dated August 2005. Each step in the process of producing a Human Error Probability (HEP) is discussed. These steps are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff. The discussions on dependence are extensive and include an appendix that describes insights obtained from the psychology literature.

  13. The cell spar for development of deep water fields offshore Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maher, Jim; Finn, Lyle [Technip/Floater Product Line, Houston, TX (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The Cell Spar is the third generation of the highly successful spar technology and has many of the characteristics of its predecessors, the Classic and Truss Spars, including similar in-place performance. Unlike the two preceding generations, which were suited to larger developments, the Cell Spar is designed to be competitive in the smaller range of floating production systems and is best suited for small deck weights and well counts. What distinguishes the Cell Spar from the other Spars is the fabrication method. The design utilizes a familiar rolling procedure and high speed welding process, to promote competitive fabrication costs and cycle times. A shorter cycle time from discovery to first production, coupled with a lower cost structure improves development economics, making the concept suitable for consideration for smaller (less than 75 MMBE) deep water field developments. The fabrication method employs tubular rolling and welding techniques that have been used successfully for years to fabricate conventional steel jacket structures. This tubular rolling and welding capability is available at many locations around the world and this capability could be established for a modest cost at other locations. As a result, it is feasible to fabricate the structure at many locations around the world, including Brazil, and thus increase the local content for the field development, as well as reduce transportation risks and expense of the final hull form. The first Cell Spar has already been delivered earlier this year. Based on the experience on this initial design, a number of product improvements have been implemented. Most of these product improvements have focused on reducing the number of required details, standardizing components, and enabling more outfitting work to be done early in the process. The first application has been classified as an ABS A1 Floating Offshore Installation (FOI). The product improvements that have been recently implemented have received

  14. Experimental Investigation on Hydrodynamic Behavior of the Geometric Spar Platform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Fan; YANG Jian-min; LI Run-pei; CHEN Gang

    2006-01-01

    In recent years, attention has been focused on the spar platform for gas and oil exploitation in deep water. With the development of offshore technology, many new spar concepts have been put forward and fully studied. This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on the hydrodynamic behavior of a new spar concept from Novellent Offshore LLC, USA, which is called Geometric Spar (G-spar). A new type of buoyancy can concept from the same company, viz. Integrated Buoyancy Can (IBC), is researched in the meantime. The G-spar and IBC models with a 1:70 scale are tested in the State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering at Shanghai Jiao Tong University for the global performance of the spar hull, in which the second-order wave drift force is involved, as well as the effect of heave plates on the motion characteristics and mooring force of the G-spar platform.

  15. 33 CFR 147.825 - Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone... (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.825 Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone. (a) Description. The Chevron Genesis Spar, Green Canyon 205A (GC205A), is located at position 27°46′46.365″ N,...

  16. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  17. SparRec: An effective matrix completion framework of missing data imputation for GWAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Bo; Ma, Shiqian; Causey, Jason; Qiao, Linbo; Hardin, Matthew Price; Bitts, Ian; Johnson, Daniel; Zhang, Shuzhong; Huang, Xiuzhen

    2016-10-01

    Genome-wide association studies present computational challenges for missing data imputation, while the advances of genotype technologies are generating datasets of large sample sizes with sample sets genotyped on multiple SNP chips. We present a new framework SparRec (Sparse Recovery) for imputation, with the following properties: (1) The optimization models of SparRec, based on low-rank and low number of co-clusters of matrices, are different from current statistics methods. While our low-rank matrix completion (LRMC) model is similar to Mendel-Impute, our matrix co-clustering factorization (MCCF) model is completely new. (2) SparRec, as other matrix completion methods, is flexible to be applied to missing data imputation for large meta-analysis with different cohorts genotyped on different sets of SNPs, even when there is no reference panel. This kind of meta-analysis is very challenging for current statistics based methods. (3) SparRec has consistent performance and achieves high recovery accuracy even when the missing data rate is as high as 90%. Compared with Mendel-Impute, our low-rank based method achieves similar accuracy and efficiency, while the co-clustering based method has advantages in running time. The testing results show that SparRec has significant advantages and competitive performance over other state-of-the-art existing statistics methods including Beagle and fastPhase.

  18. 复合材料整体化多墙盒段渐进式失效分析和试验验证%Progressive failure analysis and test validation of integral multi-spar composite box

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张国凡; 孙侠生; 吴存利; 孙中雷; 林国伟

    2016-01-01

    In order to predict the damage initiation and destruction process of composite box accurately,the pro-gressive damage finite element analysis technique of integral multi-spar composite box which took material failure in-to consideration was investigated.Based on ABAQUS software,the progressive damage analysis model of box was established firstly by using the material mechanical property parameters obtained by standard tests,and three dimen-sional Hashin failure criteria and square stress failure criteria were adopted as the failure criteria of composite ply and adhesive interface,respectively.Then,the solution for post-buckling loading capability of the integral multi-spar composite box was accomplished by the model,and the analysis model was validated by failure test.The results show that the finite element analysis results for loading capability and stress of structure coincide well with test val-ues,and the failure mode predicted is also consistent with the test results.The errors of buckling load and loading capability are within 5%.The conclusions obtained show that the analysis model which takes failure of ply and debonding of interface into consideration can simulate the damage process of integral multi-spar box effectively.%为准确预测复合材料盒段的损伤起始和破坏过程,针对复合材料整体化多墙盒段研究了考虑材料失效的渐进损伤有限元分析技术。首先基于 ABAQUS软件,利用标准试验获得的材料力学性能建立了盒段渐进损伤分析模型,分别采用三维 Hashin失效准则和平方应力失效准则作为复合材料层板和连接界面的失效判据;然后,基于该模型完成了复合材料整体化多墙盒段后屈曲承载能力的求解,并利用破坏试验对分析模型进行验证。结果表明:结构承载能力和应力的有限元分析结果与试验值吻合良好,预测的失效模式也与试验结果一致,屈曲载荷和承载能力误差在5%以内。

  19. Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  20. Physiological Analysis and Research of the Free Sparring Feet Hitting the Target Training%武术散打项目打脚靶训练的生理学分析与研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林利君; 王程辉

    2011-01-01

    文章通过对散打运动员打脚靶时心率变化的情况进行监控,运用实验法和数理统计分析法,进一步掌握运动员在训练时的心率频率及其恢复情况。并利用心率情况客观地了解训练和比赛的激烈程度,分析影响训练效果的主要因素,从而更好地为各个运动队和俱乐部进行有针对性的科学训练提供依据和参考。%Through monitoring the changes of heart rate of Sanda athletes practicing the free sparring feet hitting foot target,with the methods of experiment and mathematical statistical analysis,the paper further understands the athletes in training frequency and recovery of their heart rate.Utilizing heart rate objectively understanding the intensity of training and competition,the study does analysis of the main factors affecting the training effect,then to offer some traning evidences and references for the sport team and clubs training.

  1. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  2. Spar genetic analysis of two invasive species of Cichla (Tucunaré (Perciformes: Cichlidae in the Paraná river basin = Análise genética via spar, de duas espécies de Cichla (Tucunaré (Perciformes: Cichlidae introduzidas na Bacia do rio Paraná

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanna Caputo Almeida-Ferreira

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of exotic species in lake ecosystems has been greatly highlighted in the literature worldwide. Since introduction may threaten diversity of native fish, the issue turns up to be of paramount importance. Ecological effects may be predation, competition, parasitism or genetic, that is, changes in the genetic pool of populations owing to the occurrence of hybrids. Although the Tucunaré fish (Cichla is native to the Amazon region, it can be foundin other hydrographic basins in which it has been introduced. RAPD molecular marker research showed that there are two species (Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti belonging to the genus Cichla in the rivers of the Paraná basin. Different morphotypes in the region may also be due to hybridization. Current research used SPAR molecular markers to confirm the presence of hybrids and the rupture of isolation mechanisms. Seventy-two specimens collected in several sites of the river Paraná and Amazon basins were analyzed. Since exclusive SPAR molecular markers were obtained for Cichla kelberi and C. piquiti populations, the introduction of the two species in the region has been confirmed. Identification of the markers in specimens of theParaná river basin confirmed hybridization between these exotic species.A introdução de espécies exóticas nos ecossistemas lacustres tem sido muito destacada na literatura mundial, pois ameaça a diversidade de peixes nativos, tornando-se uma questão de extrema importância. Os efeitos observados podem ser ecológicos, como predação, competição e parasitismo ou genéticos, como a ocorrência de híbridos. Apesar do peixe tucunaré (Cichla ser nativo da região amazônica, ele pode ser encontrado em outras bacias hidrográficas nas quais foram introduzidos. Estudos utilizando marcadores moleculares RAPD revelaram que existem duas espécies (Cichla kelberi e C. piquiti do gênero Cichla na bacia do alto rio Paraná e morfotipos diferentes que podem ser devido

  3. Observations on risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested.

  4. Iceland spar and its legacy in science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Kristjánsson

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In the late 17th century, Rasmus Bartholin and Christiaan Huygens investigated a curious optical property of crystals found at Helgustaðir in Eastern Iceland. This property which has been called double refraction, revealed in the 19th century a new aspect of light which turned out to be very useful as a probe of the internal structure of matter. Clear specimens of these crystals, an unusually pure variety of calcite, have since around 1780 been known as ''Iceland spar''. Few if any other localities yielding calcite crystals of comparable size and quality were discovered before 1900, and no alternatives for use in precision optical instrumentation were developed until the 1930s. Hundreds of tons of calcite were exported from Helgustaðir, mostly between 1850 and 1925. However, little information has been found on trading routes for the material of optical quality, so that some enigmas remain regarding its supply-demand situation. A study of the scientific literature in the period up to 1930 has revealed that results obtained with the aid of Iceland spar accelerated progress within the earth sciences (in mineralogy and petrology, physics, chemistry, and biology, even by decades. This has also influenced the development of technology and of medicine in various direct and indirect ways.

  5. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  6. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KYU-HWAN; YANG

    2001-01-01

    Risk analysis is a useful tool for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data, contaminant residue levels, statistical tools, exposure values and relevant variants. Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates, along with statutory, engineering, economic, social, and political factors, in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options (NRC, 1983).……

  7. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@Risk analysis is a useful tool for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data, contaminant residue levels, statistical tools, exposure values and relevant variants. Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates, along with statutory, engineering, economic, social, and political factors, in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options (NRC, 1983).

  8. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KYU-HAWNYANG

    2001-01-01

    Risk analysis is a useful too for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data.contaminant residue levels,statistical tools,exposure values and relevant variants,Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates,along with statutory,engineering,economic,social,and political factors,in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options(NRC,1983).

  9. RISK ANALYSIS DEVELOPED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgiana Cristina NUKINA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Through Risk analysis developed model deciding whether control measures suitable for implementation. However, the analysis determines whether the benefits of a data control options cost more than the implementation.

  10. Risk analysis methodology survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  11. A dynamic spar numerical model for passive shape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calogero, J. P.; Frecker, M. I.; Hasnain, Z.; Hubbard, J. E., Jr.

    2016-10-01

    A three-dimensional constraint-driven dynamic rigid-link numerical model of a flapping wing structure with compliant joints (CJs) called the dynamic spar numerical model is introduced and implemented. CJs are modeled as spherical joints with distributed mass and spring-dampers with coupled nonlinear spring and damping coefficients, which models compliant mechanisms spatially distributed in the structure while greatly reducing computation time compared to a finite element model. The constraints are established, followed by the formulation of a state model used in conjunction with a forward time integrator, an experiment to verify a rigid-link assumption and determine a flapping angle function, and finally several example runs. Modeling the CJs as coupled bi-linear springs shows the wing is able to flex more during upstroke than downstroke. Coupling the spring stiffnesses allows an angular deformation about one axis to induce an angular deformation about another axis, where the magnitude is proportional to the coupling term. Modeling both the leading edge and diagonal spars shows that the diagonal spar changes the kinematics of the leading edge spar verses only considering the leading edge spar, causing much larger axial rotations in the leading edge spar. The kinematics are very sensitive to CJ location, where moving the CJ toward the wing root causes a stronger response, and adding multiple CJs on the leading edge spar with a CJ on the diagonal spar allows the wing to deform with larger magnitude in all directions. This model lays a framework for a tool which can be used to understand flapping wing flight.

  12. SPAR: a random forest-based predictor for self-interacting proteins with fine-grained domain information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuhan; Yang, Shiping; Li, Chen; Zhang, Ziding; Song, Jiangning

    2016-07-01

    Protein self-interaction, i.e. the interaction between two or more identical proteins expressed by one gene, plays an important role in the regulation of cellular functions. Considering the limitations of experimental self-interaction identification, it is necessary to design specific bioinformatics tools for self-interacting protein (SIP) prediction from protein sequence information. In this study, we proposed an improved computational approach for SIP prediction, termed SPAR (Self-interacting Protein Analysis serveR). Firstly, we developed an improved encoding scheme named critical residues substitution (CRS), in which the fine-grained domain-domain interaction information was taken into account. Then, by employing the Random Forest algorithm, the performance of CRS was evaluated and compared with several other encoding schemes commonly used for sequence-based protein-protein interaction prediction. Through the tenfold cross-validation tests on a balanced training dataset, CRS performed the best, with the average accuracy up to 72.01 %. We further integrated CRS with other encoding schemes and identified the most important features using the mRMR (the minimum redundancy maximum relevance) feature selection method. Our SPAR model with selected features achieved an average accuracy of 92.09 % on the human-independent test set (the ratio of positives to negatives was about 1:11). Besides, we also evaluated the performance of SPAR on an independent yeast test set (the ratio of positives to negatives was about 1:8) and obtained an average accuracy of 76.96 %. The results demonstrate that SPAR is capable of achieving a reasonable performance in cross-species application. The SPAR server is freely available for academic use at http://systbio.cau.edu.cn/zzdlab/spar/ .

  13. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  14. Numerical Study on Global Motion of Truss Spar in Frequency and Time Domains for the Liwan 3-1 Area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Lu; LI Binbin; OU Jinping

    2011-01-01

    Using frequency and time domain analysis, the authors analyzed the hydrodynamics and motion behavior of a Truss Spar platform at a water depth of 1500 m in the Liwan 3-1 area of the South China Sea. Firstly, the seakeeping ability is acquired in the frequency domain by calculating the hull's hydrodynamics and comparing with a semi-submersible platform. The random wave analysis for 100-year, 10-year and 1-year return periods in Liwan 3-1 distinctly shows lower heave but larger surge and pitch responses of the Truss Spar than those of a semi-submersible. Secondly, 3-hour motions of the Truss Spar are predicted and compared in the time domain under 100-year return period conditions in Liwan 3-1 and the Gulf of Mexico. Thirdly, the hull/mooring line coupled and uncoupled models are compared. Finally, the responses of the Truss Spar under 10-year and 1-year return period conditions are assessed. The results reveal that the mooring line damping reflected by the coupled model distinctly decreases the low frequency motior The maximum heave response for 100-year return period waves is 1.23m and below 0. 1m for the case of 1-year return period.

  15. Targeted assets risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwsema, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessments utilising the consolidated risk assessment process as described by Public Safety Canada and the Centre for Security Science utilise the five threat categories of natural, human accidental, technological, human intentional and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or explosive (CBRNE). The categories of human intentional and CBRNE indicate intended actions against specific targets. It is therefore necessary to be able to identify which pieces of critical infrastructure represent the likely targets of individuals with malicious intent. Using the consolidated risk assessment process and the target capabilities list, coupled with the CARVER methodology and a security vulnerability analysis, it is possible to identify these targeted assets and their weaknesses. This process can help emergency managers to identify where resources should be allocated and funding spent. Targeted Assets Risk Analysis (TARA) presents a new opportunity to improve how risk is measured, monitored, managed and minimised through the four phases of emergency management, namely, prevention, preparation, response and recovery. To reduce risk throughout Canada, Defence Research and Development Canada is interested in researching the potential benefits of a comprehensive approach to risk assessment and management. The TARA provides a framework against which potential human intentional threats can be measured and quantified, thereby improving safety for all Canadians.

  16. Simplified seismic risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pellissetti, Manuel; Klapp, Ulrich [AREVA NP GmbH, Erlangen (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    Within the context of probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) for nuclear power plants (NPP's), seismic risk assessment has the purpose to demonstrate that the contribution of seismic events to overall risk is not excessive. The most suitable vehicle for seismic risk assessment is a full scope seismic PSA (SPSA), in which the frequency of core damage due to seismic events is estimated. An alternative method is represented by seismic margin assessment (SMA), which aims at showing sufficient margin between the site-specific safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) and the actual capacity of the plant. Both methods are based on system analysis (fault-trees and event-trees) and hence require fragility estimates for safety relevant systems, structures and components (SSC's). If the seismic conditions at a specific site of a plant are not very demanding, then it is reasonable to expect that the risk due to seismic events is low. In such cases, the cost-benefit ratio for performing a full scale, site-specific SPSA or SMA will be excessive, considering the ultimate objective of seismic risk analysis. Rather, it will be more rational to rely on a less comprehensive analysis, used as a basis for demonstrating that the risk due to seismic events is not excessive. The present paper addresses such a simplified approach to seismic risk assessment which is used in AREVA to: - estimate seismic risk in early design stages, - identify needs to extend the design basis, - define a reasonable level of seismic risk analysis Starting from a conservative estimate of the overall plant capacity, in terms of the HCLPF (High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure), and utilizing a generic value for the variability, the seismic risk is estimated by convolution of the hazard and the fragility curve. Critical importance is attached to the selection of the plant capacity in terms of the HCLPF, without performing extensive fragility calculations of seismically relevant SSC's. A suitable basis

  17. Wind blade spar cap and method of making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Mansour H.

    2008-05-27

    A wind blade spar cap for strengthening a wind blade including an integral, unitary three-dimensional woven material having a first end and a second end, corresponding to a root end of the blade and a tip end of the blade, wherein the material tapers in width from the first to the second end while maintaining a constant thickness and decreasing weight therebetween, the cap being capable of being affixed to the blade for providing increased strength with controlled variation in weight from the root end to the tip end based upon the tapered width of the material thereof. The present inventions also include the method of making the wind blade spar cap and a wind blade including the wind blade spar cap.

  18. Skylab Apollo Telescope Mount Spar and Sun End

    Science.gov (United States)

    1971-01-01

    The Apollo Telescope Mount (ATM) was designed and developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center and served as the primary scientific instrument unit aboard Skylab (1973-1979). The ATM contained eight complex astronomical instruments designed to observe the Sun over a wide spectrum from visible light to x-rays. This image depicts the sun end and spar of the ATM flight unit showing individual telescopes. All solar telescopes, the fine Sun sensors, and some auxiliary systems are mounted on the spar, a cruciform lightweight perforated metal mounting panel that divides the canister lengthwise into four equal compartments. The spar assembly was nested inside a cylindrical canister that fit into a complex frame named the rack, and was protected by the solar shield.

  19. Dynamic Responses of Truss Spar Due to Wave Actions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.J. Kurian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Spar platforms have been used for drilling, production and storage of oil and gas in the offshore deepwater region. The structure is installed at the deepwater locations in the sea and is exposed to continuous action of wind, wave, current and other environmental forces. Wave force constitutes about 70% of the total environmental force and could be considered as the most significant force affecting the dynamic responses needed for the design of these structures. In this study, the dynamic responses of the truss spar due to wave actions including the wave force theories and wave propagation directions are investigated. Numerical simulations are developed to investigate the accuracy of the wave force theories i.e., Morison equation and Diffraction theory, for large structure such as truss spar. The investigation is further expanded to study responses of the truss spar due to variations directions of the wave propagated. The truss spar is modelled as a rigid body with three degrees of freedom restrained by mooring lines. In the simulation, the mass, damping and stiffness matrices are evaluated at every time step. The equations of motion are formulated for the platform dynamic equilibrium and solved by using Newmark Beta method. To compute the wave force for truss spar, which is large compared to the wave length, Diffraction theory was found to be more appropriate. The Morison equation was found applicable only at the high frequency range. Short crested waves resulted in smaller responses in all the motions than that for long crested waves. Hence, it would be appropriate to consider the short crested wave statistics for the optimum design.

  20. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  1. Lightweight rotor design by optimal spar cap offset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croce, A.; Sartori, L.; Lunghini, M. S.; Clozza, L.; Bortolotti, P.; Bottasso, C. L.

    2016-09-01

    Bend-twist coupling behavior is induced in a blade by displacing the suction side spar cap towards the leading edge, and the pressure side one in the opposite direction. Additional couplings are introduced by rotating the spar cap fibers. The structural configuration of the blade is optimized using an automated design environment. The resulting blade shows significant benefits in terms of mass and loads when compared to the baseline uncoupled one. Finally, the lightweight design concept is used to increase the rotor size, resulting in a larger energy yield for the same hub loads.

  2. Graphics and composite material computer program enhancements for SPAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, G. L.; Baker, D. J.

    1980-01-01

    User documentation is provided for additional computer programs developed for use in conjunction with SPAR. These programs plot digital data, simplify input for composite material section properties, and compute lamina stresses and strains. Sample problems are presented including execution procedures, program input, and graphical output.

  3. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  4. Time-Motion and Biological Responses in Simulated Mixed Martial Arts Sparring Matches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coswig, Victor S; Ramos, Solange de P; Del Vecchio, Fabrício B

    2016-08-01

    Coswig, VS, Ramos, SdP, and Del Vecchio, FB. Time-motion and biological responses in simulated mixed martial arts sparring matches. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2156-2163, 2016-Simulated matches are a relevant component of training for mixed martial arts (MMA) athletes. This study aimed to characterize time-motion responses and investigate physiological stress and neuromuscular changes related to MMA sparring matches. Thirteen athletes with an average age of 25 ± 5 years, body mass of 81.3 ± 9.5 kg, height of 176.2 ± 5.5 cm, and time of practice in MMA of 39 ± 25 months participated in the study. The fighters executed three 5-minute rounds with 1-minute intervals. Blood and salivary samples were collected and physical tests and psychometric questionnaires administered at 3 time points: before (PRE), immediately after (POST), and 48 hours after the combat (48 h). Statistical analysis applied analysis of variance for repeated measurements. In biochemical analysis, significant changes (p ≤ 0.05) were identified between PRE and POST (glucose: 80.3 ± 12.7 to 156.5 ± 19.1 mg·ml; lactate: 4 ± 1.7 to 15.6 ± 4.8 mmol·dl), POST and 48 hours (glucose: 156.5 ± 19.1 to 87.6 ± 15.5 mg·ml; lactate: 15.6 ± 4.8 to 2.9 ± 3.5 mmol·dl; urea: 44.1 ± 8.9 to 36.3 ± 7.8 mg·ml), and PRE and 48 hours (creatine kinase [CK]: 255.8 ± 137.4 to 395.9 ± 188.7 U/L). In addition, time-motion analyses showed a total high:low intensity of 1:2 and an effort:pause ratio of 1:3. In conclusion, simulated MMA sparring matches feature moderate to high intensity and a low degree of musculoskeletal damage, which can be seen by absence of physical performance and decrease in CK. Results of the study indicate that sparring training could be introduced into competitive microcycles to improve technical and tactical aspects of MMA matches, due to the high motor specificity and low muscle damage.

  5. Regular paths in SparQL: querying the NCI Thesaurus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detwiler, Landon T; Suciu, Dan; Brinkley, James F

    2008-11-06

    OWL, the Web Ontology Language, provides syntax and semantics for representing knowledge for the semantic web. Many of the constructs of OWL have a basis in the field of description logics. While the formal underpinnings of description logics have lead to a highly computable language, it has come at a cognitive cost. OWL ontologies are often unintuitive to readers lacking a strong logic background. In this work we describe GLEEN, a regular path expression library, which extends the RDF query language SparQL to support complex path expressions over OWL and other RDF-based ontologies. We illustrate the utility of GLEEN by showing how it can be used in a query-based approach to defining simpler, more intuitive views of OWL ontologies. In particular we show how relatively simple GLEEN-enhanced SparQL queries can create views of the OWL version of the NCI Thesaurus that match the views generated by the web-based NCI browser.

  6. COUPLING EFFECTS FOR CELL-TRUSS SPAR PLATFORM: COMPARISON OF FREQUENCY- AND TIME-DOMAIN ANALYSES WITH MODEL TESTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Fan; YANG Jian-min; LI Run-pei; CHEN Gang

    2008-01-01

    For the floating structures in deepwater, the coupling effects of the mooring lines and risers on the motion responses of the structures become increasingly significant. Viscous damping, inertial mass, current loading and restoring, etc. from these slender structures should be carefully handled to accurately predict the motion responses and line tensions. For the spar platforms, coupling the mooring system and riser with the vessel motion typically results in a reduction in extreme motion responses. This article presents numerical simulations and model tests on a new cell-truss spar platform in the State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering in Shanghai Jiaotong University. Results from three calculation methods, including frequency-domain analysis, time-domain semi-coupled and fully-coupled analyses, were compared with the experimental data to find the applicability of different approaches. Proposals for the improvement of numerical calculations and experimental technique were tabled as well.

  7. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  8. Modeling Interactions Between Flexible Flapping Wing Spars, Mechanisms, and Drive Motors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    flapping wing spars. The model can be used to examine the coupled system-level behavior of brushed DC motors , gear trains, and any number of linkages and...mechanisms consist of a brushed DC motor and gear train in combination with linkage elements, flexible wing spars, and wing surfaces. The aerodynamic and...characteristics of the motion of flexible wing spars that are driven by ornithopter linkages and brushed DC motors . There are three principal types of

  9. Variable Torque Control of Offshore Wind Turbine on Spar Floating Platform Using Advanced RBF Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Offshore floating wind turbine (OFWT has been a challenging research spot because of the high-quality wind power and complex load environment. This paper focuses on the research of variable torque control of offshore wind turbine on Spar floating platform. The control objective in below-rated wind speed region is to optimize the output power by tracking the optimal tip-speed ratio and ideal power curve. Aiming at the external disturbances and nonlinear uncertain dynamic systems of OFWT because of the proximity to load centers and strong wave coupling, this paper proposes an advanced radial basis function (RBF neural network approach for torque control of OFWT system at speeds lower than rated wind speed. The robust RBF neural network weight adaptive rules are acquired based on the Lyapunov stability analysis. The proposed control approach is tested and compared with the NREL baseline controller using the “NREL offshore 5 MW wind turbine” model mounted on a Spar floating platform run on FAST and Matlab/Simulink, operating in the below-rated wind speed condition. The simulation results show a better performance in tracking the optimal output power curve, therefore, completing the maximum wind energy utilization.

  10. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  11. Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helms, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-10

    The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investments or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.

  12. Simplified Methods Applied to Nonlinear Motion of Spar Platforms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haslum, Herbjoern Alf

    2000-07-01

    Simplified methods for prediction of motion response of spar platforms are presented. The methods are based on first and second order potential theory. Nonlinear drag loads and the effect of the pumping motion in a moon-pool are also considered. Large amplitude pitch motions coupled to extreme amplitude heave motions may arise when spar platforms are exposed to long period swell. The phenomenon is investigated theoretically and explained as a Mathieu instability. It is caused by nonlinear coupling effects between heave, surge, and pitch. It is shown that for a critical wave period, the envelope of the heave motion makes the pitch motion unstable. For the same wave period, a higher order pitch/heave coupling excites resonant heave response. This mutual interaction largely amplifies both the pitch and the heave response. As a result, the pitch/heave instability revealed in this work is more critical than the previously well known Mathieu's instability in pitch which occurs if the wave period (or the natural heave period) is half the natural pitch period. The Mathieu instability is demonstrated both by numerical simulations with a newly developed calculation tool and in model experiments. In order to learn more about the conditions for this instability to occur and also how it may be controlled, different damping configurations (heave damping disks and pitch/surge damping fins) are evaluated both in model experiments and by numerical simulations. With increased drag damping, larger wave amplitudes and more time are needed to trigger the instability. The pitch/heave instability is a low probability of occurrence phenomenon. Extreme wave periods are needed for the instability to be triggered, about 20 seconds for a typical 200m draft spar. However, it may be important to consider the phenomenon in design since the pitch/heave instability is very critical. It is also seen that when classical spar platforms (constant cylindrical cross section and about 200m draft

  13. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Through selection of resistance to sparfloxacin, an attenuated Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar was obtained from its virulent parent strain S. agalactiae 138P. The full genome of S. agalactiae 138spar is 1,838,126 bp. The availability of this genome will allow comparative genomics to identi...

  14. CONSIDERATIONS ON ENTITY'S RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIRELA MONEA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, because of the complexity of this topic, the purpose is to discuss the main aspects involved by risk analysis; starting with few conceptual approaches about risk and to outline the contributions about methods to assess different risks categories, especially methods to assess bankruptcy risk prediction (entity insolvency from economic literature. The methods used to estimate bankruptcy risk are based on the score function which helps to find if an entity is confronted with financial difficulties. The score functions are a diagnosis method elaborated relying on the discriminant analysis, allowing to assess and to predict the bankruptcy risk of the entity using a set of relevant financial ratios.

  15. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... in generating and testing hypotheses in food microbiology will be advocated....... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  16. Workshop One : Risk Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carlson, T.J.; Jong, C.A.F. de; Dekeling, R.P.A.

    2012-01-01

    The workshop looked at the assessment of risk to aquatic animals exposed to anthropogenic sound. The discussion focused on marine mammals given the worldwide attention being paid to them at the present time, particularly in relationship to oil and gas exploration, ocean power, and increases in ship

  17. Hybrid Verification of A Deepwater Cell-Truss Spar

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU Yi-hua; YANG Jian-min; XIAO Long-fei

    2009-01-01

    Hybrid model testing technique is widely used in verification of a deepwater floating structure and its mooring system,but the design of the truncated mooring systems which can reproduce both static and dynamic response same as the full-depth mooring system is still a big challenge,especially for the mooting systems with large truncation.A Cell-Tress Spar operated in 1500 m water depth is verified in a wave basin with 4 m water depth.A large truncation factor arises even though a small model scale 1:100 is adopted.Computer program modules for analyzing the static and frequency domain dynamic response of mooting line are combined with multi-objective genetic algorithm NSGA-II to optimize the truncared mooting system.Considering the asymmetry of layout of mooring hnes,two different truncated mooring systems are respectively designed for both directions in which the restoring forces of the.mooting system are quite,different.Not only the static characteristics of the mooting systems are calibrated,but also the dynamic responses of the single truncated mooting line are evaluated through time domain numerical simulation and model tests.The model test results of 100-year storm in the GOM are reconstructed and extrapolated to a full depth.It is found that the experimental and numerical resuits of Spar wave frequency motion agree well,and the dynamic responses of the full-depth mooring lines are better reproduced,but the low frequency surge motion is overestimated due to the smaller mooring-induced damping.It is a feasible method adopting different truncated mooring systems for different directions in which the restoring force characteristics are quite different and cannot be simulated by one truncated mooring system.Hybrid verification of a deepwater platform in wave basin with shallow water depth is still feasible if the truncated mooring systems are properly designed,and numerical extrapolation is necessary.

  18. "Nonlinear coupled dynamic response of offshore spar platforms under regular sea waves" by A.K. Agarwal and A.K. Jain. Ocean Engineering 30; 2003; 517-555

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    that the effects of structural damping and coupling of stiffness matrix on sway, roll and yaw are negligible compared to that on heave, surge and pitch. As the spar is connected to the sea floor by multi component catenary mooring lines, its stability and stiffness...–793 of simplifying the analysis, but it could have been estimated as the technologies and computational facilities were available as per authors’ review on Spar. For the motions of a large floating structure, we should estimate the Froude-Krylov force...

  19. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  20. Instrumented sparring vest to aid in martial arts scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrigan, Katie; Logan, Rachel; Sluti, Anne; Rogge, Renee

    2006-01-01

    Competitors in certain martial arts, such as Taekwondo, are required to wear protective vests during competition. This article outlines the design and fabrication of an instrumented martial arts sparring vest that will aid in martial arts scoring, which is currently a work in progress. After fabrication, this instrumented vest and associated system will not only provide the same protection as before modification, but will also report the location and force magnitude of strikes applied to the vest. This will aid in scoring of martial arts competitions, as it will determine if a strike is forceful enough to be considered deliberate and therefore is a valid point-scoring strike. This will make scoring of competitions unbiased and equal for all competitors, something that is difficult to achieve based solely on a judge's assessment by observation. The system will also indicate the probable injury resulting from a strike, for example, no injury, bruising or bone fracture. If a competitor's strike force is excessive and serious injury could result, the system will indicate this so action can be taken, such as penalty or disqualification of a competitor. Both tissue testing and force testing will be conducted prior to vest fabrication to determine estimates of forces that will damage tissue and typical forces experienced during competition. After testing is complete, the system will be fabricated and the testing results will be implemented into the associated software.

  1. Optimization design of spar cap layup for wind turbine blade

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    Based on the aerodynamic shape and structural form of the blade are fixed,a mathematical model of optimization design for wind turbine blade is established.The model is pursued with respect to minimum the blade mass to reduce the cost of wind turbine production.The material layup numbers of the spar cap are chosen as the design variables;while the demands of strength,stiffness and stability of the blade are employed as the constraint conditions.The optimization design for a 1.5 MW wind turbine blade is carried out by combing above objective and constraint conditions at the action of ultimate flapwise loads with the finite element software ANSYS.Compared with the original design,the optimization design result achieves a reduction of 7.2% of the blade mass,the stress and strain distribution of the blade is more reasonable,and there is no occurrence of resonance,therefore its effectiveness is verified.

  2. On-line updating Gaussian mixture model for aircraft wing spar damage evaluation under time-varying boundary condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Chang, Fu-Kuo; Bao, Qiao; Mei, Hanfei

    2014-12-01

    Structural health monitoring technology for aerospace structures has gradually turned from fundamental research to practical implementations. However, real aerospace structures work under time-varying conditions that introduce uncertainties to signal features that are extracted from sensor signals, giving rise to difficulty in reliably evaluating the damage. This paper proposes an online updating Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based damage evaluation method to improve damage evaluation reliability under time-varying conditions. In this method, Lamb-wave-signal variation indexes and principle component analysis (PCA) are adopted to obtain the signal features. A baseline GMM is constructed on the signal features acquired under time-varying conditions when the structure is in a healthy state. By adopting the online updating mechanism based on a moving feature sample set and inner probability structural reconstruction, the probability structures of the GMM can be updated over time with new monitoring signal features to track the damage progress online continuously under time-varying conditions. This method can be implemented without any physical model of damage or structure. A real aircraft wing spar, which is an important load-bearing structure of an aircraft, is adopted to validate the proposed method. The validation results show that the method is effective for edge crack growth monitoring of the wing spar bolts holes under the time-varying changes in the tightness degree of the bolts.

  3. Dam risk assistant analysis system design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In order to reduce the labor intensity and task difficulty of dam risk analysis and to meet the actual requirement of dam risk analysis,it is necessary to establish a dam risk assistant analysis system.The program structure and the implementation ways of the dam risk assistant analysis system are analyzed,and a procedural framework with "three-tier and multi-database" structure and "level structure" is established.The concept of dam risk assessment system modular development is proposed and the coupled mode of function module and data is improved.Finally,the dam risk assistant analysis system is developed using Delphi visual programming language.

  4. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  5. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following......, further research can focus on these most important risk indicators with the aim to optimise risk analysis....

  6. Computational Fluid Dynamics and Experimental Study of Lock-in Phenomenon in Vortex-Induced Motions of a Cell-Truss Spar

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Ying; YANG Jian-min; L(U) Hai-ning

    2009-01-01

    Spar platforms could be subject to vortex-induced-motions (VIM) in certain current conditions. Lock-in is a phenomenon which occurs in a range of reduced velocities in VIM. In this paper, a new concept of spar platform called cell-truss spar is studied using both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and model test to investigate the VIM of the spar under different reduced velocities. The unique configuration of the cell-truss spar is carefully considered, and the unsteady flow around the spar is calculated and visualized in CFD simulations. A physical model with a scale ratio of 1:100 of the cell-truss spar is fabricated, and model tests are carried out in the current-generating ocean engineering basin. Many important parameters in VIM of the cell-truss spar are obtained, the occurrence of lock-in phenomenon is successfully simulated, and the mechanism and rules of lock-in are analyzed.

  7. Elasticity tailoring of a composite D-Spar: Progress report for calendar year 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ong, Cheng-Huat; Tsai, Stephen W.

    1998-08-01

    There are many potential benefits to be gained from the aeroelastic behavior of a wind-turbine blade with bend-twist coupling. However, the ability to manufacture blades with sufficient coupling to provide the desired benefits has yet to be established. This report investigates the feasible (or practical) range of the coupling coefficient that can be obtained on a uniform cross-section composite D-spar, which could be the backbone of a wind-turbine-blade. The most critical parameters are identified and studied across a range of possible values. Various features, such as the geometry, skin thickness, ply distribution, ply materials, and ply orientations, are evaluated for their effect on twist-bend coupling of a D-spar. It is found that sufficient coupling can be built into the D-spar shape, but that carbon-fiber composite plies angled between 15 and 30 degrees to the longitudinal axis may be required.

  8. Direct Adaptive Rejection of Vortex-Induced Disturbances for a Powered SPAR Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanZwieten, Tannen S.; Balas, Mark J.; VanZwieten, James H.; Driscoll, Frederick R.

    2009-01-01

    The Rapidly Deployable Stable Platform (RDSP) is a novel vessel designed to be a reconfigurable, stable at-sea platform. It consists of a detachable catamaran and spar, performing missions with the spar extending vertically below the catamaran and hoisting it completely out of the water. Multiple thrusters located along the spar allow it to be actively controlled in this configuration. A controller is presented in this work that uses an adaptive feedback algorithm in conjunction with Direct Adaptive Disturbance Rejection (DADR) to mitigate persistent, vortex-induced disturbances. Given the frequency of a disturbance, the nominal DADR scheme adaptively compensates for its unknown amplitude and phase. This algorithm is extended to adapt to a disturbance frequency that is only coarsely known by including a Phase Locked Loop (PLL). The PLL improves the frequency estimate on-line, allowing the modified controller to reduce vortex-induced motions by more than 95% using achievable thrust inputs.

  9. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  10. Concept design and key technology of new deep-water SPAR and TLP

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    @@ The study of Concept Design and Key Technology of New DeepWater SPAR and TLP came to an end successfully after scientific and technical personnel had made two years' endeavor.The study, which was sponsored by CSIC Ship Design and Research Center Company with the participation of CSIC no 702 Institute, Shanghai LICE Company and Dalian SHI, is part of the national hi-tech study program (863), category Ocean Technology, project key technology and equipment for deep-sea oil and gas prospecting and exploration in South China Sea, subject concept design and key technology of new deepwater SPAR and TLP.

  11. Risk Analysis for Tea Processing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@ Itis lbviors that after all the disasters with dilxins, BSE, pathogcns,Footand Mouth disease a. o. and now shortly because of the possibillties of bioterrorism, thatFoodSafetyisalmostatthetopoftheagendaoftheEUfor theyearstocome The implementaion of certainhy gicneprinci plessuchas HA C C P and a transparent hygiene policy applicable to all food and all food operators, from the farm to the table, togetherwith effoctiveinstruments to manage Food Safety will form fsubstantialpart on this agenda. As an example external quality factors such as certain pathogens in tea will. be discussed. Since risk analysis of e. g. my cotoxing have already a quite long histoy and development in sereral international bodies and tea might bear unwanted (or deliberately added by terroristic action)contaminants, the need to monitor teamuch more regularly than is being done today, seems to be a"conditio sine qua non ". Recentoy developed Immuno Flow tests may one day help the consumer perhaps to find out if he gets poisoned.

  12. Submarine Pipeline Routing Risk Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐慧; 于莉; 胡云昌; 王金英

    2004-01-01

    A new method for submarine pipeline routing risk quantitative analysis was provided, and the study was developed from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis.The characteristics of the potential risk of the submarine pipeline system were considered, and grey-mode identification theory was used. The study process was composed of three parts: establishing the indexes system of routing risk quantitative analysis, establishing the model of grey-mode identification for routing risk quantitative analysis, and establishing the standard of mode identification result. It is shown that this model can directly and concisely reflect the hazard degree of the routing through computing example, and prepares the routing selection for the future.

  13. Evaluation Between Existing and Improved CCF Modeling Using the NRC SPAR Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James K. Knudsen

    2010-06-01

    Abstract: The NRC SPAR models currently employ the alpha factor common cause failure (CCF) methodology and model CCF for a group of redundant components as a single “rolled-up” basic event. These SPAR models will be updated to employ a more computationally intensive and accurate approach by expanding the CCF basic events for all active components to include all terms that appear in the Basic Parameter Model (BPM). A discussion is provided to detail the differences between the rolled-up common cause group (CCG) and expanded BPM adjustment concepts based on differences in core damage frequency and individual component importance measures. Lastly, a hypothetical condition is evaluated with a SPAR model to show the difference in results between the current adjustment method (rolled-up CCF events) and the newer method employing all of the expanded terms in the BPM. The event evaluation on the SPAR model employing the expanded terms will be solved using the graphical evaluation module (GEM) and the proposed method discussed in Reference 1.

  14. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    Science.gov (United States)

    The complete genome of a sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae vaccine strain 138spar is 1,838,126 bp in size. The genome has 1892 coding sequences and 82 RNAs. The annotation of the genome is added by the NCBI Prokaryotic Genome Annotation Pipeline. The publishing of this genome will allo...

  15. Boxing sparring complicated by an acute subdural haematoma and brainstem haemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Michael G; Trivedi, Rikin A; Hutchinson, Peter J

    2012-10-01

    A professional boxer developed an acute subdural haematoma after boxing sparring. Despite timely surgical decompression, he had a poor overall outcome predominantly from a delayed brainstem haematoma. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was used to elucidate the pathophysiology of the patients' injury and clinical condition.

  16. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  17. Numerical Modeling of a Spar Platform Tethered by a Mooring Cable

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Xiangqian; YOO Wan-Suk

    2015-01-01

    Virtual simulation is an economical and efficient method in mechanical system design. Numerical modeling of a spar platform, tethered by a mooring cable with a spherical joint is developed for the dynamic simulation of the floating structure in ocean. The geometry modeling of the spar is created using finite element methods. The submerged part of the spar bears the buoyancy, hydrodynamic drag force, and effect of the added mass and Froude-Krylov force. Strip theory is used to sum up the forces acting on the elements. The geometry modeling of the cable is established based on the lumped-mass-and-spring modeling through which the cable is divided into 10 elements. A new element-fixed local frame is used, which is created by the element orientation vector and relative velocity of the fluid, to express the loads acting on the cable. The bottom of the cable is fixed on the seabed by spring forces, while the top of the cable is connected to the bottom of the spar platform by a modified spherical joint. This system suffers the propagating wave and current in the X-direction and the linear wave theory is applied for setting of the propagating wave. Based on the numerical modeling, the displacement-load relationships are analyzed, and the simulation results of the numerical modeling are compared with those by the commercial simulation code, ProteusDS. The comparison indicates that the numerical modeling of the spar platform tethered by a mooring cable is well developed, which provides an instruction for the optimization of a floating structure tethered by a mooring cable system.

  18. Bank Liquidity Risk: Analysis and Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meilė Jasienė

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In today’s banking business, liquidity risk and its management are some of the most critical elements that underlie the stability and security of the bank’s operations, profit-making and clients confidence as well as many of the decisions that the bank makes. Managing liquidity risk in a commercial bank is not something new, yet scientific literature has not focused enough on different approaches to liquidity risk management and assessment. Furthermore, models, methodologies or policies of managing liquidity risk in a commercial bank have never been examined in detail either. The goal of this article is to analyse the liquidity risk of commercial banks as well as the possibilities of managing it and to build a liquidity risk management model for a commercial bank. The development, assessment and application of the commercial bank liquidity risk management was based on an analysis of scientific resources, a comparative analysis and mathematical calculations.

  19. SHRIMP U-Pb ages of xenotime and monazite from the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana: Implications for ore genesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleinikoff, John N.; Hayes, Timothy S.; Evans, Karl V.; Mazdab, Frank K.; Pillers, Renee M.; Fanning, C. Mark

    2012-01-01

    Xenotime occurs as epitaxial overgrowths on detrital zircons in the Mesoproterozoic Revett Formation (Belt Supergroup) at the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana. The deposit formed during diagenesis of Revett strata, where oxidizing metal-bearing hydrothermal fluids encountered a reducing zone. Samples for geochronology were collected from several mineral zones. Xenotime overgrowths (1–30 μm wide) were found in polished thin sections from five ore and near-ore zones (chalcocite-chlorite, bornite-calcite, galena-calcite, chalcopyrite-ankerite, and pyrite-calcite), but not in more distant zones across the region. Thirty-two in situ SHRIMP U-Pb analyses on xenotime overgrowths yield a weighted average of 207Pb/206Pb ages of 1409 ± 8 Ma, interpreted as the time of mineralization. This age is about 40 to 60 m.y. after deposition of the Revett Formation. Six other xenotime overgrowths formed during a younger event at 1304 ± 19 Ma. Several isolated grains of xenotime have 207Pb/206Pb ages in the range of 1.67 to 1.51 Ga, and thus are considered detrital in origin. Trace element data can distinguish Spar Lake xenotimes of different origins. Based on in situ SHRIMP analysis, detrital xenotime has heavy rare earth elements-enriched patterns similar to those of igneous xenotime, whereas xenotime overgrowths of inferred hydrothermal origin have hump-shaped (i.e., middle rare earth elements-enriched) patterns. The two ages of hydrothermal xenotime can be distinguished by slightly different rare earth elements patterns. In addition, 1409 Ma xenotime overgrowths have higher Eu and Gd contents than the 1304 Ma overgrowths. Most xenotime overgrowths from the Spar Lake deposit have elevated As concentrations, further suggesting a genetic relationship between the xenotime formation and Cu-Ag mineralization.

  20. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different from...... conventional ships. To reach a documented level of safety, it is therefore not possible directly to transfer experience with conventional ships. The purpose of this paper is to present new rational scientific tools to assess and quantify the collision risk associated with HSC transportation. The paper...

  1. Analysis of foreign schools of risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.M. Posokhov

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to study the scientific development of foreign scientific schools of risk management and analysis of their main publications; the allocation of foreign scientific schools of risk management. The results of the analysis. Research of modern risk management is carried out leading foreign schools. The most famous school in the theory of financial risk and risk management is American school. Among its current members are D. Galai, H. Greuning, A. Damodaran, P. Jorion, J. Kallman, M. Crouhy, M. Mccarthy, R. Mark, T. Flynn and other scientists. Important contribution to the development of the theory and practice of risk management made British scientists and economists – the representatives of English Schools of Risk Management: T. Andersen, T. Bedford, A. Griffin, A. Zaman, R. Cooke, P. Sweeting, P. Hopkin, a German P. Schroder and others. A significant advance to the theory of risk management of German scientific school, based on the classic work of Zadeh has received significant results of the risk assessment using fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets. Graduate School of Risk Management of the University of Cologne is training and research group funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG under the project «Theoretical and Empirical Basis of Risk Management». The aim of Graduate School of Risk Management is to promote young scientists. The school risk management of the University of Cologne outstanding research conducted by German and foreign professors, such as: K. Mosler, A. Kempf, C. Kuhner, T. Hartmann-Wendels, C. Homburg, D. Hess, D. Sliwka, F. Schmid, H. Schradin. The author noted the existence and fruitful work in the capital of Switzerland Laboratory of risk management (Risk Lab Switzerland and its leading scientists: P. Embrechts, A. Gisler, M. Wüthrich, H. Bühlmann, V. Bignozzi, M. Hofert, P. Deprez, and the Basel Committee on banking supervision – Developer international standards of Basel

  2. Supply-Chain Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    Classic Buffer Overflow 1. http://cwe.mitre.org/top25/ SANS (SysAdmin, Audit, Network , Security ) Institute 23 Veracode: State of Software Security ...Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17...supply-chain risks. He participated in the design and development of the DHS Build- Security -In Web site and continues to contribute articles to it

  3. Asbestos Workshop: Sampling, Analysis, and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    coatings Vinyl/asbestos floor tile Automatic transmission components Clutch facings Disc brake pads Drum brake linings Brake blocks Commercial and...1EMDQ March 2012 ASBESTOS WORKSHOP: SAMPLING, ANALYSIS , AND RISK ASSESSMENT Paul Black, PhD, Neptune and Company Ralph Perona, DABT, Neptune and...Sampling, Analysis , and Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK

  4. Application of intelligent materials to enhance SPAR floating offshore platforms stability

    OpenAIRE

    Rius Planas, Maria

    2010-01-01

    The following thesis presents a stability study of a floating wind turbine platform, composed by two concentric cylinders, for offshore application. The theoretical bases of the linear theory and the derivation of the equation of motion are introduced in the second chapter. The following chapter resumes the results of the research of the optimum dimensions as well as the results of the simulation of the equation of motion of the spar with and without inertial plate. The addition of the ine...

  5. Demonstration of Enabling Spar-Shell Cooling Technology in Gas Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downs, James [Florida Turbine Technologies Inc., Jupiter, FL (United States)

    2014-12-29

    In this Advanced Turbine Program-funded Phase III project, Florida Turbine Technologies, Inc. (FTT) has developed and tested, at a pre-commercial prototypescale, spar-shell turbine airfoils in a commercial gas turbine. The airfoil development is based upon FTT’s research and development to date in Phases I and II of Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) grants. During this program, FTT has partnered with an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Siemens Energy, to produce sparshell turbine components for the first pre-commercial prototype test in an F-Class industrial gas turbine engine and has successfully completed validation testing. This project will further the commercialization of this new technology in F-frame and other highly cooled turbine airfoil applications. FTT, in cooperation with Siemens, intends to offer the spar-shell vane as a first-tier supplier for retrofit applications and new large frame industrial gas turbines. The market for the spar-shell vane for these machines is huge. According to Forecast International, 3,211 new gas turbines units (in the >50MW capacity size range) will be ordered in ten years from 2007 to 2016. FTT intends to enter the market in a low rate initial production. After one year of successful extended use, FTT will quickly ramp up production and sales, with a target to capture 1% of the market within the first year and 10% within 5 years (2020).

  6. Relative risk regression analysis of epidemiologic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, R L

    1985-11-01

    Relative risk regression methods are described. These methods provide a unified approach to a range of data analysis problems in environmental risk assessment and in the study of disease risk factors more generally. Relative risk regression methods are most readily viewed as an outgrowth of Cox's regression and life model. They can also be viewed as a regression generalization of more classical epidemiologic procedures, such as that due to Mantel and Haenszel. In the context of an epidemiologic cohort study, relative risk regression methods extend conventional survival data methods and binary response (e.g., logistic) regression models by taking explicit account of the time to disease occurrence while allowing arbitrary baseline disease rates, general censorship, and time-varying risk factors. This latter feature is particularly relevant to many environmental risk assessment problems wherein one wishes to relate disease rates at a particular point in time to aspects of a preceding risk factor history. Relative risk regression methods also adapt readily to time-matched case-control studies and to certain less standard designs. The uses of relative risk regression methods are illustrated and the state of development of these procedures is discussed. It is argued that asymptotic partial likelihood estimation techniques are now well developed in the important special case in which the disease rates of interest have interpretations as counting process intensity functions. Estimation of relative risks processes corresponding to disease rates falling outside this class has, however, received limited attention. The general area of relative risk regression model criticism has, as yet, not been thoroughly studied, though a number of statistical groups are studying such features as tests of fit, residuals, diagnostics and graphical procedures. Most such studies have been restricted to exponential form relative risks as have simulation studies of relative risk estimation

  7. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  8. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  9. Project cost analysis under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florica LUBAN

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integrated approach based on Monte Carlo simulation and Six Sigma methodology is used to analyze the risk associated with a project's total cost. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to understand the variability in total cost caused by the probabilistic cost items. By Six Sigma methodology the range of variation of the project cost can be reduced by operating on the input factors with the greatest impact on total cost to cover the variation of 6 between the limits that were established in the design phase of Six Sigma.

  10. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  11. Analysis and estimation of risk management methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kankhva Vadim Sergeevich

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available At the present time risk management is an integral part of state policy in all the countries with developed market economy. Companies dealing with consulting services and implementation of the risk management systems carve out a niche. Unfortunately, conscious preventive risk management in Russia is still far from the level of standardized process of a construction company activity, which often leads to scandals and disapproval in case of unprofessional implementation of projects. The authors present the results of the investigation of the modern understanding of the existing methodology classification and offer the authorial concept of classification matrix of risk management methods. Creation of the developed matrix is based on the analysis of the method in the context of incoming and outgoing transformed information, which may include different elements of risk control stages. So the offered approach allows analyzing the possibilities of each method.

  12. Multicriteria Decision Analysis for banks risks evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Rakotoarivelo, Jean-Baptiste; ZARATÉ, Pascale; Razafimandimby, Josvah Paul

    2015-01-01

    International audience; This poster aims to observe a better choice for risks evaluation Financial organisms. Our aim is to support banks during operations of customers with respect to funding opportunities, investment or credits reaching. First of all, we identify different types of risks associated with this activity and we secondly analysed them thanks to a method of multicriteria analysis AHP (Analytic hierachy Process) with different means adopted to identify them. It should be noted tha...

  13. Quantitative risks analysis of maritime terminal petrochemical

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, Leandro Silveira; Leal, Cesar A. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica (PROMEC)]. E-mail: leandro19889900@yahoo.com.br

    2008-07-01

    This work consists of the application of a computer program (RISKAN) developed for studies of quantification of industrial risks and also a revision of the models used in the program. As part the evaluation made, a test was performed with the application of the computer program to estimate the risks for a marine terminal for storage of petrochemical products, in the city of Rio Grande, Brazil. Thus, as part of the work, it was performed a Quantitative Risk Analysis associated to the terminal, both for the workers and for the population nearby, with a verification of acceptability using the tolerability limits established by the State Licensing Agency (FEPAM-RS). In the risk analysis methodology used internationally, the most used way of presenting results of social risks is in the graphical form with the use of the FN curves and for the individual risk it is common the use of the iso-risk curves traced on the map of the area where is the plant. In the beginning of the study, both a historical analysis of accidents and use of the technique of Preliminary Analysis of Risks were made in order to aid in the process of identification of the possible scenarios of accidents related to the activities in the terminal. After identifying the initiating events, their frequencies or probabilities of occurrence were estimated and followed by the calculations of the physical effects and deaths, with the use, inside the computer program, of published models of Prins Mauritz Laboratory and of American Institute of Chemical Engineers. The average social risk obtained for the external populations was of 8.7x10{sup -7} fatality.year{sup -1} and for the internal population (people working inside the terminal), 3.2x10{sup -4} fatality.year-1. The accident scenario that most contributed to the social risk was death due to exposure to the thermal radiation caused by pool fire, with 84.3% of the total estimated for external populations and 82.9% for the people inside the terminal. The

  14. Competence Set Analysis Under Risk and Uncertainty

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.

  15. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or maintained by VA occurs and the Secretary has not determined... personal information, if any. (c) Assessment of the potential harm to the affected individuals. (d)...

  16. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  17. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available tec

  18. Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

    2015-02-28

    The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms.

  19. Optimal Topology of Aircraft Rib and Spar Structures under Aeroelastic Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanford, Bret K.; Dunning, Peter D.

    2014-01-01

    Several topology optimization problems are conducted within the ribs and spars of a wing box. It is desired to locate the best position of lightening holes, truss/cross-bracing, etc. A variety of aeroelastic metrics are isolated for each of these problems: elastic wing compliance under trim loads and taxi loads, stress distribution, and crushing loads. Aileron effectiveness under a constant roll rate is considered, as are dynamic metrics: natural vibration frequency and flutter. This approach helps uncover the relationship between topology and aeroelasticity in subsonic transport wings, and can therefore aid in understanding the complex aircraft design process which must eventually consider all these metrics and load cases simultaneously.

  20. Selected Tools for Risk Analysis in Logistics Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulińska, Ewa

    2012-03-01

    As each organization aims at managing effective logistics processes, risk factors can and should be controlled through proper system of risk management. Implementation of complex approach to risk management allows for the following: - evaluation of significant risk groups associated with logistics processes implementation, - composition of integrated strategies of risk management, - composition of tools for risk analysis in logistics processes.

  1. Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boenke, A

    2001-12-01

    The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

  2. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  3. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  4. 奥地利SPAR公司肉制品物流系统%TANN logistics system of SPAR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    奥地利SPAR Osterreichische warenhandels AG公司(原名SPAR Tyrol/Pinzgan贸易协会)创设于1954年,1970年兼并了10家批发公司后改为现名,目前已发展成为奥地利最大的工商业企业,其经营范围涉及各种食品的批发和零售,同时生产肉制品、香肠、葡萄酒、烈酒、咖啡和茶。

  5. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mo Chongxun; Liu Fanggui; Yu Mei; Ma Rongyong; Sun Guikai

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  6. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  7. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  8. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  9. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rasmuson, D M [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  10. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  11. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative inf

  12. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...... structuring and enriching the taxonomies of society’s critical functions and threats, which form an important part of the model. Creating terminological ontologies is a time consuming work, and therefore there is a need for automatic tools for extraction of terms, concept relations and characteristics...

  13. Empirical analysis on risk of security investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    AN Peng; LI Sheng-hong

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyzes the theory and application of Markowitz Mean-Variance Model and CAPM model. Firstly, it explains the development process and standpoints of two models and deduces the whole process in detail. Then 30 stocks are choosen from Shangzheng 50 stocks and are testified whether the prices of Shanghai stocks conform to the two models. With the technique of time series and panel data analysis, the research on the stock risk and effective portfolio by ORIGIN and MATLAB software is conducted. The result shows that Shanghai stock market conforms to Markowitz Mean-Variance Model to a certain extent and can give investors reliable suggestion to gain higher return, but there is no positive relation between system risk and profit ratio and CAPM doesn't function well in China's security market.

  14. FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Robin K.

    1976-01-01

    A program for seismic risk analysis is described which combines generality of application, efficiency and accuracy of operation, and the advantage of small storage requirements. The theoretical basis for the program is first reviewed, and the computational algorithms used to apply this theory are described. The information required for running the program is listed. Published attenuation functions describing the variation with earthquake magnitude and distance of expected values for various ground motion parameters are summarized for reference by the program user. Finally, suggestions for use of the program are made, an example problem is described (along with example problem input and output) and the program is listed.

  15. CFD Simulation of the Vertical Motion Characteristics of the Moonpool Fluid for the Truss Spar

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bin Wang; Liqin Liu; Yougang Tang

    2014-01-01

    The research purpose of this paper is to estimate the impacts of the parameters of the guide plate on the vertical motion characteristics of the moonpool fluid. With the volume of fluid (VOF) method, three-dimensional models of the moonpool fluid motions of the truss spar platform are established. Simulation results are then presented for the moonpool forced oscillation by employing the dynamic mesh method and user-defined functions in FLUENT. The motions of the moonpool fluid and the loads on the guide plates are obtained for both cases of square-ring and crisscross. The results show that the shape and area of the guide plate at the bottom of the moonpool have a significant impact on the physical parameters of the moonpool, including the load on the moonpool guide plate, motion form of the moonpool fluid and the mass flow rate.

  16. An Experimental Investigation of the Responses of Classic Spar Platform Subjected to Bi-directional Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.J. Kurian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of the bi-directional short-crested waves on the dynamic motion responses of the moored classic spar is demonstrated from the results of the models test in this study. Practically in the design of offshore structures, long-crested or 2-dimensional wave properties that propagated to one direction are considered. Even though such long-crested wave is widely used for the design purposes, it is hardly determined in the real sea. The wind generated sea state in the real sea conditions are indeed well represented by the short-crested waves. Short-crested waves are defined as linear summation of long-crested wave series that propagated to different directions. Hence, the motions of the model were investigated experimentally by conducting the wave tank tests in the wave tank of Offshore Laboratory of Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS. Five groups of bi-directional wave series were defined and exerted on the classic spar model, which fabricated by using steel with scaling factor of 1:100. From the results measured, it was found that similar trends of the responses in term of Response Amplitude Operator (RAO for surge, heave and pitch motions were obtained. Maximum responses of surge, heave and pitch were found due to wave crossing angle 90°, while minimum response was found due to wave crossing angle 135°, respectively. It could be concluded that the wave crossing angle 90° (BD3 gives the widest spreading for short crested waves, while the wave crossing angle 135° (BD4 gives the narrowest spreading for short crested waves.

  17. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  18. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  19. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    In response to the challenges of conducting traditional human health and ecological risk assessment for nanomaterials (NM), a number of alternative frameworks have been proposed for NM risk analysis. This paper evaluates various risk analysis frameworks proposed for NM based on a number of criter...

  20. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  1. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  2. Feasibility study of a semi floating spar buoy wind turbine anchored with a spherical joint to the sea floor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanz Martinez, Maria; Natarajan, Anand; Henriksen, Lars Christian

    2013-01-01

    The feasibility of a semi floating platform offshore wind turbine system is investigated at 120m water depth. The semi floating system consists of a 5MW wind turbine on a floater with mooring lines similar to a spar buoy and strongly anchored with a spherical joint to the sea soil. The stability...... of the newly designed floater and mooring assembly are analyzed from static and dynamic simulations of the wind turbine. The design loads on the universal joint on the sea floor are tuned with the needs for a ballast chamber. Using load simulations in the HAWC2 software, ultimate and equivalent fatigue loads...... are obtained and compared with the corresponding loads from the same wind turbine mounted on a spar buoy and as a land based wind turbine. The results show a reduction in the ultimate and equivalent fatigue loads for the new system....

  3. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  4. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  5. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    High-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.

  6. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  7. Hydrodynamic Comparison of a Semi-submersible, TLP, and Spar: Numerical Study in the South China Sea Environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Binbin Li; Kun Liu; Gongwei Yan; Jinping Ou

    2011-01-01

    The South China Sea contains tremendous oil and gas resources in deepwater areas.However,one of the keys for deepwater exploration,the investigation of deepwater floating platforms,is very inadequate.In this paper,the authors studied and compared the hydrodynamics and global motion behaviors of typical deepwater platforms in the South China Sea environment.The hydrodynamic models of three main types of floating platforms,e.g.the Semi-submersible,tension leg platform (TLP),and Truss Spar,which could potentially be utilized in the South China Sea,were established by using the 3-D potential theory.Additionally,some important considerations which significantly influence the hydrodynamics were given.The RAOs in frequency domains as well as global motions in time domains under time-varying wind,random waves,and current in 100-y,10-y,and 1-y return period environment conditions were predicted,compared,and analyzed.The results indicate that the heave and especially the pitch motion of the TLP are favorable.The heave response of the Truss Spar is perfect and comparable with that of the TLP when the peak period of random waves is low.However,the pitch motion of Truss Spar is extraordinarily larger than that of Semi-submersible and TLP.

  8. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  9. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence comp

  10. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure....

  11. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxime Frydman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  12. Truss Spar平台简介%An introduction of Truss Spar Platform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐琦

    2002-01-01

    Truss spar平台是传统spar平台的一个变种,如图1所示.它是一种深吃水圆柱结构.世界上第一座spar平台于1996年8月在2000英尺水深的墨西哥湾安装.第一座Truss spar平台,Kerr McGee(柯麦奇)Nansen and Boomvang,于2001年安装于墨西哥湾.Spar平台的最新进展是BP的Holstein、Mad Dog以及Murphy的Front Runner.所有的己交付的或近期将要交付使用的Truss spar平台都在墨西哥湾.图2显示了由CSO-Aker已交付的或正在交付的spar.其中最后一个称为多管式spar的是第三代Truss spar平台,它已经被Kerr Magee的Red Hawk项目采用.本文将对Truss spar平台的技术进行简要介绍.

  13. Risk analysis of colorectal cancer incidence by gene expression analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shangkuan, Wei-Chuan; Lin, Hung-Che; Chang, Yu-Tien; Jian, Chen-En; Fan, Hueng-Chuen; Chen, Kang-Hua; Liu, Ya-Fang; Hsu, Huan-Ming; Chou, Hsiu-Ling; Yao, Chung-Tay

    2017-01-01

    Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the leading cancers worldwide. Several studies have performed microarray data analyses for cancer classification and prognostic analyses. Microarray assays also enable the identification of gene signatures for molecular characterization and treatment prediction. Objective Microarray gene expression data from the online Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database were used to to distinguish colorectal cancer from normal colon tissue samples. Methods We collected microarray data from the GEO database to establish colorectal cancer microarray gene expression datasets for a combined analysis. Using the Prediction Analysis for Microarrays (PAM) method and the GSEA MSigDB resource, we analyzed the 14,698 genes that were identified through an examination of their expression values between normal and tumor tissues. Results Ten genes (ABCG2, AQP8, SPIB, CA7, CLDN8, SCNN1B, SLC30A10, CD177, PADI2, and TGFBI) were found to be good indicators of the candidate genes that correlate with CRC. From these selected genes, an average of six significant genes were obtained using the PAM method, with an accuracy rate of 95%. The results demonstrate the potential of utilizing a model with the PAM method for data mining. After a detailed review of the published reports, the results confirmed that the screened candidate genes are good indicators for cancer risk analysis using the PAM method. Conclusions Six genes were selected with 95% accuracy to effectively classify normal and colorectal cancer tissues. We hope that these results will provide the basis for new research projects in clinical practice that aim to rapidly assess colorectal cancer risk using microarray gene expression analysis. PMID:28229027

  14. Network analysis using organizational risk analyzer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The tool system of the organizational risk analyzer (ORA) to study the network of East Turkistan terrorists is selected. The model of the relationships among its personnel, knowledge, resources and task entities is represented by the meta-matrix in ORA, with which to analyze the risks and vulnerabilities of organizational structure quantitatively, and obtain the last vulnerabilities and risks of the organization. Case study in this system shows that it should be a shortcut to destroy effectively the network...

  15. Risk-Based Explosive Safety Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-30

    Risk-based analyses can also be used for risk management purposes and comparative studies when evaluating test programs that utilize energetic...liquids or propellants. 15. SUBJECT TERMS N/A 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a. NAME OF...analyses can also be used for risk management purposes and comparative studies when evaluating test programs that utilize energetic liquids or

  16. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme `Risk Analysis`

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L. [eds.] [University of Groningen, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Groningen (Netherlands); Van Ham, J. [TNO Institute for Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Olsthoorn, A.A. [VUA, Free University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs.

  17. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  18. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  19. The Network's Data Security Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil BURTESCU

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Establishing the networks security risk can be a very difficult operation especially for the small companies which, from financial reasons can't appeal at specialist in this domain, or for the medium or large companies that don't have experience. The following method proposes not to use complex financial calculus to determine the loss level and the value of impact making the determination of risk level a lot easier.

  20. Maternal migration and autism risk: systematic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crafa, Daina; Warfa, Nasir

    2015-02-01

    Autism (AUT) is one of the most prevalent developmental disorders emerging during childhood, and can be amongst the most incapacitating mental disorders. Some individuals with AUT require a lifetime of supervised care. Autism Speaks reported estimated costs for 2012 at £34 billion in the UK; and $3.2 million-$126 billion in the US, Australia and Canada. Ethnicity and migration experiences appear to increase risks of AUT and relate to underlying biological risk factors. Sociobiological stress factors can affect the uterine environment, or relate to stress-induced epigenetic changes during pregnancy and delivery. Epigenetic risk factors associated with AUT also include poor pregnancy conditions, low birth weight, and congenital malformation. Recent studies report that children from migrant communities are at higher risk of AUT than children born to non-migrant mothers, with the exception of Hispanic children. This paper provides the first systematic review into prevalence and predictors of AUT with a particular focus on maternal migration stressors and epigenetic risk factors. AUT rates appear higher in certain migrant communities, potentially relating to epigenetic changes after stressful experiences. Although AUT remains a rare disorder, failures to recognize its public health urgency and local community needs continue to leave certain cultural groups at a disadvantage.

  1. Heave-roll-pitch coupled nonlinear internal resonance response of a spar platform considering wave and vortex exciting loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei; Tang, Yougang; Liu, Liqin; Liu, Shuxiao; Cai, Runbo

    2017-04-01

    Many studies have been done on the heave-pitch unstable coupling response for a spar platform by a 2-DOF model. In fact, in addition to the heave and pitch which are in one plane, the nonlinear unstable motion will also occur in roll. From the results of the experiments, the unstable roll motion plays a dominant role in the motion of a spar platform which is much stronger than that of pitch. The objective of this paper is to study 3-DOF coupling response performance of spar platform under wave and vortex-induced force. The nonlinear coupled equations in heave, roll and pitch are established by considering time-varying wet surface and coupling. The first order steady-state response is solved by multi-scales method when the incident wave frequency approaches the heave natural frequency. Numerical integration of the motion equations has been performed to verify the first-order perturbation solution. The results are confirmed by model test. There is a saturation phenomenon associated with heave mode in 3-DOF systems and all extra energy is transferred to roll and pitch. It is observed that sub-harmonic response occurs in roll and pitch when the wave force exceeds a certain value. The energy distribution in roll and pitch is determined by the initial value and damping characteristics of roll and pitch. The energy transfers from heave to pitch and then transfers from pitch to roll. Due to the influence of the low-frequency vortex-excited force, the response of roll is more complicated than that of pitch.

  2. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  3. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  4. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations.

  5. Panel Random Analysis of Credit Risk in Business

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Wei; ZHOU Yue-mei; ZHOU Ke

    2005-01-01

    Market economy is a kind of credit economy.The survival and development of an individual in the society are closely related with his credit. Without credit, market economy can not continue, the society can hardly run in good order and good health. This paper defines the basic concept of trade credit risk with its manifestation and brings forward the basic mode quantitatively analyzing the credit risk. The data structure of information is analyzed, the decomposition model of credit risk is structured and with the aid of statistical analysis, including regression analysis, analysis of variance, test of hypothesized, the description, classification, certification and confirmation of credit risk model are completed, then, we can describe and control the credit risk with the model to provide basis when building credit support system in today's society.

  6. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  7. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  8. A risk analysis model in concurrent engineering product development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng Dash; Kefan, Xie; Gang, Chen; Ping, Gui

    2010-09-01

    Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three-dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.

  9. Comparative Analysis and Evaluation of Existing Risk Management Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this article lies on the specific features of the existing software packages for risk management differentiating three categories. Representative for these categories we consider the Crystal Ball, Haufe Risikomanager and MIS - Risk Management solutions, outlining the strenghts and weaknesses in a comparative analysis.

  10. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  11. DOE 2009 Geothermal Risk Analysis: Methodology and Results (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    This presentation summarizes the methodology and results for a probabilistic risk analysis of research, development, and demonstration work-primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program.

  12. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  13. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  14. Software Speeds Up Analysis of Breast Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_161117.html Software Speeds Up Analysis of Breast Cancer Risk: Study ... 22, 2016 THURSDAY, Sept. 22, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Software that quickly analyzes mammograms and patient history to ...

  15. Imposed risk controversies: a critical analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sauer, G.L.

    The author focuses on risk controversies where someone in one locale is concerned about being seriously injured as a result of human activities carried on elsewhere. Discussion is limited to unintentional risks, such as, nuclear power plants, dams, toxic pollutants and biological laboratories containing virulent organisms. He attempts to fashion a new judicial institution for settling disputes where liability is not well defined. The proposed system is a two-step process. The first is arbitration where defendant participation is voluntary. If judgment at first stage is against the defendant the system progresses to the second stage; otherwise the process is completed. The second stage is a full-scale hearing where burden of proof shifts to defendant. (PSB)

  16. USAWC Coronary Risk and Fitness Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-06-04

    Dr. Wood and associates of the Stanford Heart Disease Prevention Program compared the lipopro- tein patterns of sedentary and active men 35-39 years... insulates the body and increases the risk of heat exhaus- tion and heat stroke; it lowers the body’s efficient use of oxy- gen and reduces an...around the heart and throughout the body, and at the same time keep undiseased blood vessels ,,24 soft and pliable . It has also been established that

  17. Fuzzy Logic Application in Risk Analysis Due to Lightning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yelennis Godoy Valladares

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This work uses the application of the fuzzy logic to the analysis of risk on the base of the approaches picked up in the IEC 62305-2, with the objective of developing a simple tool, of easy use and understanding, which offers the designer the possibility of a bigger interpretation to the subjectivity wrapped in the analysis using the language to evaluate the characteristics of the installation in study and the risk of lightning impact.

  18. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  19. Schedule Risk Analysis Simulator using Beta Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isha Sharma,

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an application of simulation and Modelling in Software risk management. This paper describes a simulation based software risk management tool which helps manager to identifyhigh risk areas of software process. In this paper an endeavour has been made to build up a Stochastic Simulator which helps in decision making to identify the critical activities which are given due priorities during the development of Software Project. In response to new information or revised estimates, it may be necessary to reassign resources, cancel optional tasks, etc. Project management tools that make projections while treating decisions about tasks and resource assignments as static will not yield realistic results. The usual PERT procedure may lead to overly optimistic results as many pass which are not critical but slightly shorter than critical on the basis of estimated activity duration or average durations.Due to randomness of durations, these pass under some combination of activity durations, could become longer than the average longest path. Such paths would be ignored while using the PERT technique onthe basis of the average durations. In order to overcome this problem and be more reasonable, the said Stochastic Simulator has been designed by generating random samples from a specific probabilitydistribution associated with that particular activity of SPM. The said simulator is also not bugged with overly estimated results.

  20. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  1. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  2. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  3. The semantic distinction between "risk" and "danger": a linguistic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boholm, Max

    2012-02-01

    The analysis combines frame semantic and corpus linguistic approaches in analyzing the role of agency and decision making in the semantics of the words "risk" and "danger" (both nominal and verbal uses). In frame semantics, the meanings of "risk" and of related words, such as "danger," are analyzed against the background of a specific cognitive-semantic structure (a frame) comprising frame elements such as Protagonist, Bad Outcome, Decision, Possession, and Source. Empirical data derive from the British National Corpus (100 million words). Results indicate both similarities and differences in use. First, both "risk" and "danger" are commonly used to represent situations having potential negative consequences as the result of agency. Second, "risk" and "danger," especially their verbal uses (to risk, to endanger), differ in agent-victim structure, i.e., "risk" is used to express that a person affected by an action is also the agent of the action, while "endanger" is used to express that the one affected is not the agent. Third, "risk," but not "danger," tends to be used to represent rational and goal-directed action. The results therefore to some extent confirm the analysis of "risk" and "danger" suggested by German sociologist Niklas Luhmann. As a point of discussion, the present findings arguably have implications for risk communication.

  4. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  5. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure.

  6. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process.

  7. A Project Risk Ranking Approach Based on Set Pair Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Feng; Chen Yingwu

    2006-01-01

    Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is a new methodology to describe and process system uncertainty. It is different from stochastic or fuzzy methods in reasoning and operation, and it has been applied in many areas recently. In this paper, the application of SPA in risk ranking is presented, which includes review of risk ranking, introduction of Connecting Degree (CD) that is a key role in SPA., Arithmetic and Tendency Grade (TG) of CDs, and a risk ranking approach proposed. Finally a case analysis is presented to illustrate the reasonability of this approach. It is found that this approach is very convenient to operate, while the ranking result is more comprehensible.

  8. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  9. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures.

  10. Development of a risk-analysis model. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-10-01

    This report consists of a main body, which provides a presentation of risk analysis and its general and specific application to the needs of the Office of Buildings and Community Systems of the Department of Energy; and several case studies employing the risk-analysis model developed. The highlights include a discussion of how risk analysis is currently used in the private, regulated, and public sectors and how this methodology can be employed to meet the policy-analysis needs of the Office of Buildings and Community Systems of the Department of Energy (BCS/DOE). After a review of the primary methodologies available for risk analysis, it was determined that Monte Carlo simulation techniques provide the greatest degree of visibility into uncertainty in the decision-making process. Although the data-collection requirements can be demanding, the benefits, when compared to other methods, are substantial. The data-collection problem can be significantly reduced, without sacrificing proprietary-information rights, if prior arrangements are made with RD and D contractors to provide responses to reasonable requests for base-case data. A total of three case studies were performed on BCS technologies: a gas-fired heat pump; a 1000 ton/day anaerobic digestion plant; and a district heating and cooling system. The three case studies plus the risk-analysis methodology were issued as separate reports. It is concluded that, based on the overall research of risk analysis and the case-study experience, that the risk-analysis methodology has significant potential as a policy-evaluation tool within BCS.

  11. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.

  12. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  13. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  14. Emerging frontier technologies for food safety analysis and risk assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Yi-yang; LIU Jia-hui; WANG Sai; CHEN Qi-long; GUO Tian-yang; ZHANG Li-ya; JIN Yong; SU Hai-jia; TAN Tian-wei

    2015-01-01

    Access to security and safe food is a basic human necessity and essential for a sustainable world. To perform hi-end food safety analysis and risk assessment with state of the art technologies is of utmost importance thereof. With applications as exempliifed by microlfuidic immunoassay, aptasensor, direct analysis in real time, high resolution mass spectrometry, benchmark dose and chemical speciifc adjustment factor, this review presents frontier food safety analysis and risk assess-ment technologies, from which both food quality and public health wil beneift undoubtedly in a foreseeable future.

  15. How does scientific risk assessment of GM crops fit within the wider risk analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Katy L; Raybould, Alan F; Hudson, Malcolm D; Poppy, Guy M

    2007-01-01

    The debate concerning genetically modified crops illustrates confusion between the role of scientists and that of wider society in regulatory decision making. We identify two fundamental misunderstandings, which, if rectified, would allow progress with confidence. First, scientific risk assessment needs to test well-defined hypotheses, not simply collect data. Second, risk assessments need to be placed in the wider context of risk analysis to enable the wider 'non-scientific' questions to be considered in regulatory decision making. Such integration and understanding is urgently required because the challenges to regulation will escalate as scientific progress advances.

  16. Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

  17. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-05-19

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task.

  18. Geotechnical risk analysis by flat dilatometer (DMT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoroso, Sara; Monaco, Paola

    2015-04-01

    In the last decades we have assisted at a massive migration from laboratory testing to in situ testing, to the point that, today, in situ testing is often the major part of a geotechnical investigation. The State of the Art indicates that direct-push in situ tests, such as the Cone Penetration Test (CPT) and the Flat Dilatometer Test (DMT), are fast and convenient in situ tests for routine site investigation. In most cases the DMT estimated parameters, in particular the undrained shear strength su and the constrained modulus M, are used with the common design methods of Geotechnical Engineering for evaluating bearing capacity, settlements etc. The paper focuses on the prediction of settlements of shallow foundations, that is probably the No. 1 application of the DMT, especially in sands, where undisturbed samples cannot be retrieved, and on the risk associated with their design. A compilation of documented case histories that compare DMT-predicted vs observed settlements, was collected by Monaco et al. (2006), indicating that, in general, the constrained modulus M can be considered a reasonable "operative modulus" (relevant to foundations in "working conditions") for settlement predictions based on the traditional linear elastic approach. Indeed, the use of a site investigation method, such as DMT, that improve the accuracy of design parameters, reduces risk, and the design can then center on the site's true soil variability without parasitic test variability. In this respect, Failmezger et al. (1999, 2015) suggested to introduce Beta probability distribution, that provides a realistic and useful description of variability for geotechnical design problems. The paper estimates Beta probability distribution in research sites where DMT tests and observed settlements are available. References Failmezger, R.A., Rom, D., Ziegler, S.R. (1999). "SPT? A better approach of characterizing residual soils using other in-situ tests", Behavioral Characterics of Residual Soils, B

  19. A Subjective Risk Analysis Approach of Container Supply Chains

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zai-Li Yang; Jin Wang; Steve Bonsall; Jian-Bo Yang; Quan-Gen Fang

    2005-01-01

    After the 9/11 terrorism attacks, the lock-out of the American West Ports in 2002 and the breakout of SARS disease in 2003 have further focused mind of both the public and industrialists to take effective and timely measures for assessing and controlling the risks related to container supply chains (CSCs). However, due to the complexity of the risks in the chains, conventional quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods may not be capable of providing sufficient safety management information, as achieving such a functionality requires enabling the possibility of conducting risk analysis in view of the challenges and uncertainties posed by the unavailability and incompleteness of historical failure data. Combing the fuzzy set theory (FST) and an evidential reasoning (ER) approach, the paper presents a subjective method to deal with the vulnerability-based risks, which are more ubiquitous and uncertain than the traditional hazard-based ones in the chains.

  20. Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

    2015-04-01

    A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies.

  1. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  2. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume.

  3. RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

  4. Geomorphological risk analysis in the Republic of Belarus

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Romanenko V. GIS-Mapping and Assessment of Geomorphological Risk in Belarus / V. Romanenko, D. Kurlovich // The geomorphology of natural hazards: mapping, analysis and prevention. Abstract book. 17th Joint Geomorphological Meeting, Liege (Belgium). 1-3 July 2014. – Liege. – P. 116. In the present study an assessment of geomorphological risk in the Republic of Belarus has been made. Geomorphological districts (according to geomorphological zoning) were the objects of the research.

  5. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  6. Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

    2016-06-01

    In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

  7. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance.

  8. Ecological food web analysis for chemical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preziosi, Damian V; Pastorok, Robert A

    2008-12-01

    Food web analysis can be a critical component of ecological risk assessment, yet it has received relatively little attention among risk assessors. Food web data are currently used in modeling bioaccumulation of toxic chemicals and, to a limited extent, in the determination of the ecological significance of risks. Achieving more realism in ecological risk assessments requires new analysis tools and models that incorporate accurate information on key receptors in a food web paradigm. Application of food web analysis in risk assessments demands consideration of: 1) different kinds of food webs; 2) definition of trophic guilds; 3) variation in food webs with habitat, space, and time; and 4) issues for basic sampling design and collection of dietary data. The different kinds of food webs include connectance webs, materials flow webs, and functional (or interaction) webs. These three kinds of webs play different roles throughout various phases of an ecological risk assessment, but risk assessors have failed to distinguish among web types. When modeling food webs, choices must be made regarding the level of complexity for the web, assignment of species to trophic guilds, selection of representative species for guilds, use of average diets, the characterization of variation among individuals or guild members within a web, and the spatial and temporal scales/dynamics of webs. Integrating exposure and effects data in ecological models for risk assessment of toxic chemicals relies on coupling food web analysis with bioaccumulation models (e.g., Gobas-type models for fish and their food webs), wildlife exposure models, dose-response models, and population dynamics models.

  9. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  10. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  11. Dietary Patterns and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Pei-Ying; Shu, Long; Shen, Shan-Shan; Chen, Xu-Jiao; Zhang, Xiao-Yan

    2017-01-05

    A number of studies have examined the associations between dietary patterns and pancreatic cancer risk, but the findings have been inconclusive. Herein, we conducted this meta-analysis to assess the associations between dietary patterns and the risk of pancreatic cancer. MEDLINE (provided by the National Library of Medicine) and EBSCO (Elton B. Stephens Company) databases were searched for relevant articles published up to May 2016 that identified common dietary patterns. Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria and were finally included in this meta-analysis. A reduced risk of pancreatic cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest categories of healthy patterns (odds ratio, OR = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.77-0.95; p = 0.004) and light-moderate drinking patterns (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.83-0.98; p = 0.02). There was evidence of an increased risk for pancreatic cancer in the highest compared with the lowest categories of western-type pattern (OR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.06-1.45; p = 0.008) and heavy drinking pattern (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.10-1.48; p = 0.002). The results of this meta-analysis demonstrate that healthy and light-moderate drinking patterns may decrease the risk of pancreatic cancer, whereas western-type and heavy drinking patterns may increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. Additional prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

  12. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  13. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  14. From risk analysis to risk governance - Adapting to an ever more complex future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk U. Pfeiffer

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis is now widely accepted amongst veterinary authorities and other stakeholders around the world as a conceptual framework for integrating scientific evidence into animal health decision making. The resulting risk management for most diseases primarily involves linking epidemiological understanding with diagnostics and/or vaccines. Recent disease outbreaks such as Nipah virus, SARS, avian influenza H5N1, bluetongue serotype 8 and Schmallenberg virus have led to realising that we need to explicitly take into account the underlying complex interactions between environmental, epidemiological and social factors which are often also spatially and temporally heterogeneous as well as interconnected across affected regions and beyond. A particular challenge is to obtain adequate understanding of the influence of human behaviour and to translate this into effective mechanisms leading to appropriate behaviour change where necessary. Both, the One Health and the ecohealth approaches reflect the need for such a holistic systems perspective, however the current implementation of risk analysis frameworks for animal health and food safety is still dominated by a natural or biomedical perspective of science as is the implementation of control and prevention policies. This article proposes to integrate the risk analysis approach with a risk governance framework which explicitly adds the socio-economic context to policy development and emphasizes the need for organisational change and stakeholder engagement.

  15. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  16. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  17. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  18. Empirical Analysis of Urban Residents’ Perceived Climatic Change Risks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peihui; DAI; Lingling; HUANG

    2014-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human survival and security,urban development is even more profound,and receives more and more attention. To explore the perceived status of urban residents for the risks of climate change and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,taking Wuhan for example,from the microscopic point of urban residents,we use factor analysis to classify the perceived risks and recognized risk reduction measures,use cluster analysis to divide the urban residents into five groups,and use variance analysis to explore differences in the choice of measures between different cluster groups. We draw the following conclusions: the risk of deterioration of the ecological environment,the risk of economic damage,the risk of damage to the mental health,the risk of damage to the physical health and the risk of damage to the political harmony are the main risks of climate change for urban residents; individuals and families to develop good habits,businesses and governments to strengthen energy conservation,schools and other agencies to carry on the propaganda and education,carrying out multi-agent environment improvement,learn from the West are their recognized risk reduction measures. Depending on the perceived risk,the urban residents are clustered into five groups: those who are concerned about the body and politics,those who are concerned about the mental health,those who are concerned about the economic development,those who are concerned about the ecological safety,and those who ignore the climatic change. For the roles of individual and the family,business and government in the environmental protection,different groups have unanimous views,while for other measures,different groups have different understanding. It is concluded that individuals and families to develop environmentally friendly habits,government to strengthen regulation,businesses to take environmental responsibility,schools to strengthen publicity and education,and exploring

  19. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  20. Downside Risk analysis applied to Hedge Funds universe

    CERN Document Server

    Perello, J

    2006-01-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires a high precision risk evaluation and an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater (or lower) than investor's goal. We study several risk indicators using the Gaussian case as a benchmark and apply them to the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data.

  1. Risk Analysis on Uric Acid Resulting in Carotid Atherosclerosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    肖敏; 李河; 郭兰; 石美铃; 麦劲壮

    2004-01-01

    Objectives To explore the risk of uric acid (UA) resulting in carotid atherosclerosis. Methods With a cross sectional study, 643 subjects (aged 41-83 yrs, male 552 and female 91)were surveyed in 1999 in Guangdong Province, China.The main research variables were uric acid (UA), occurrence and the size of carotid artery plaque. Results There was no statistical significance between the UA means of plaque occurrence and no-occurrence groups (t=0.60, df=242, P=0.5495). It seemed UA was not a possible risk factor of carotid atherosclerosis (OR=1.060, P=-0.8448>0.05, n=244) based on the logistic regression analysis. Conclusions Our results are not consistent with serum UA being an independent risk factor for atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease (CHD). It is necessary to do more research to learn the risk degree of UA during the progress of atherosclerosis/CHD.

  2. Modelling soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) in the immediate period after a grassland fire in Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Paulo; Cerda, Artemi; Misiūnė, Ieva

    2015-04-01

    The soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) is an index that measures the amount of sodium and potassium adsorbed onto clay and organic matter surfaces, in relation to calcium and magnesium. Assess the potential of soil dispersion or flocculation, a process which has implication in soil hydraulic properties and erosion (Sarah, 2004). Depending on severity and the type of ash produced, fire can changes in the immediate period the soil nutrient status (Bodi et al. 2014). Ash releases onto soil surface a large amount of cations, due the high pH. Previous works showed that SPAR from ash slurries is higher than solutions produced from litter (Pereira et al., 2014a). Normally the spatial distribution of topsoil nutrients in the immediate period after the fire is very heterogeneous, due to the different impacts of fire. Thus it is important to identify the most accurate interpolation method in order to identify with better precision the impacts of fire on soil properties. The objective of this work is to test several interpolation methods. The study area is located in near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Four days after the fire it was designed a plot in a burned area with near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Twenty five samples were collected from the topsoil. The SPAR index was calculated according to the formula: (Na++K+)/(Ca2++Mg2+)1/2 (Sarah, 2004). Data followed the normal distribution, thus no transformation was required previous to data modelling. Several well know interpolation models were tested, as Inverse Distance to a Weight (IDW) with the power of 1, 2, 3 and 4, Radial Basis Functions (RBF), Inverse Multiquadratic (IMT), Multilog (MTG), Multiquadratic (MTQ), Natural Cubic Spline (NCS) and Thin Plate Spline (TPS) and Local Polynomial (LP) with the power of 1 and 2 and Ordinary Kriging. The best interpolator was the one which had the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (Pereira et al., 2014b). The

  3. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  4. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  5. RASOR Project: Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk, from Hazard to Risk using EO data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Over recent decades, there has been a dramatic rise in disasters, and their impact on human populations. Escalation in complexities in our societies is making risks increasingly difficult to understand and changing the ways in which hazards interact with each other. The Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk (RASOR) project developed a multi-hazard risk analysis platform to support the full cycle of disaster management. RASOR provides up-to-date hazard information across floods and geohazards, up-to-date exposure data from known sources and newly-generated EO-based data, and characterised quantitatively their vulnerabilities. RASOR also adapts the newly-developed 12m resolution global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to risk management applications, using it as a base layer to develop specific disaster scenarios. RASOR overlays archived and near real-time very high resolution optical and radar satellite data, combined with in situ data for both global and local applications. A scenario-driven query system allows users to project situations into the future and model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event. Applications with regards to different case study sites are presented in order to illustrate the platform potential.

  6. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  7. Meta analysis of risk factors for colorectal cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kun Chen; Jiong-Liang Qiu; Yang Zhang; Yu-Wan Zhao

    2003-01-01

    AIM: To study the risk factors for colorectal cancer in China.METHODS: A meta-analysis of the risk factors of colorectal cancer was conducted for 14 case-control studies, and reviewed 14 reports within 13 years which included 5034cases and 5205 controls. Dersimonian and Laird random effective models were used to process the results.RESULTS: Meta analysis of the 14 studies demonstrated that proper physical activites and dietary fibers were protective factors (pooled OR<0.8), while fecal mucohemorrhage,chronic diarrhea and polyposis were highly associated with colorectal cancer (all pooled OR>4). The stratified results showed that different OR values of some factors were due to geographic factors or different resourses.CONCLUSION: Risks of colorectal cancer are significantly associated with the histories of intestinal diseases or relative symptoms, high lipid diet, emotional trauma and family history of cancers. The suitable physical activities and dietary fibers are protective factors.

  8. Regional Hazard Analysis For Use In Vulnerability And Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maris Fotios

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A method for supporting an operational regional risk and vulnerability analysis for hydrological hazards is suggested and applied in the Island of Cyprus. The method aggregates the output of a hydrological flow model forced by observed temperatures and precipitations, with observed discharge data. A scheme supported by observed discharge is applied for model calibration. A comparison of different calibration schemes indicated that the same model parameters can be used for the entire country. In addition, it was demonstrated that, for operational purposes, it is sufficient to rely on a few stations. Model parameters were adjusted to account for land use and thus for vulnerability of elements at risk by comparing observed and simulated flow patterns, using all components of the hydrological model. The results can be used for regional risk and vulnerability analysis in order to increase the resilience of the affected population.

  9. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Picone, S.; Valstar, J.R.; Gaans, van P.; Grotenhuis, J.T.C.; Rijnaarts, H.H.M.

    2012-01-01

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the v

  10. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  11. Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks--heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prpich, G; Dagonneau, J; Rocks, S A; Lickorish, F; Pollard, S J T

    2013-10-01

    We summarise our recent efforts on the policy-level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.

  12. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

    2009-04-01

    Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

  13. Recent Advances in Risk Analysis and Management (RAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arpita Banerjee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In today‟s age, organizations consider software development process as an investment activity which is dependent on the comprehensive and precise working of each phase in Software Development Lifecycle. Flaws from each phase could remain undetected starting from requirement phase till maintenance phase. The flaw or defects if left unattended in the respective phase will be carried forward to next phase aggregating the issues. These undetected flaws should be identified and removed as early as possible so as to reduce additional overheads. From the data available, it is concluded that risk analysis is a major factor which is ignored during all the phases of software development process resulting in the emergence of undetected defects and flaws. Because of the failure of many projects, the importance of risk analysis during software development process is now being well recognized. A series of reversed as well as assorted researches are proceeding towards analyzing the risk „right from the beginning‟ during the software development process. Through researchers have contributed significantly in the field, still more needs to be achieved. This paper presents a review of the current research being done in Risk Analysis and Management (RAM, based on the recently published work. The study is carried out with respect to analysis and management of risk in various phase of SDLC. Such a thorough review enables one to identify mature areas of research, as well as areas that need further investigation. Finally, after critical analysis of the current research findings, the future research directions are highlighted with their significance.

  14. RECENT ADVANCES IN RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT (RAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arpita Banerjee

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In today‟s age, organizations consider software development process as an investment activity which is dependent on the comprehensive and precise working of each phase in Software Development Lifecycle. Flaws from each phase could remain undetected starting from requirement phase till maintenance phase. The flaw or defects if left unattended in the respective phase will be carried forward to next phase aggregating the issues. These undetected flaws should be identified and removed as early as possible so as to reduce additional overheads. From the data available, it is concluded that risk analysis is a major factor which is ignored during all the phases of software development process resulting in the emergence of undetected defects and flaws. Because of the failure of many projects, the importance of risk analysis during software development process is now being well recognized. A series of reversed as well as assorted researches are proceeding towards analyzing the risk „right from the beginning‟ during the software development process. Through researchers have contributed significantly in the field, still more needs to be achieved. This paper presents a review of the current research being done in Risk Analysis and Management (RAM, based on the recently published work. The study is carried out with respect to analysis and management of risk in various phase of SDLC. Such a thorough review enables one to identify mature areas of research, as well as areas that need further investigation. Finally, after critical analysis of the current research findings, the future research directions are highlighted with their significance.

  15. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  16. Hazardous materials transportation: a risk-analysis-based routing methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonelli, P; Bonvicini, S; Spadoni, G

    2000-01-07

    This paper introduces a new methodology based on risk analysis for the selection of the best route for the transport of a hazardous substance. In order to perform this optimisation, the network is considered as a graph composed by nodes and arcs; each arc is assigned a cost per unit vehicle travelling on it and a vehicle capacity. After short discussion about risk measures suitable for linear risk sources, the arc capacities are introduced by comparison between the societal and individual risk measures of each arc with hazardous materials transportation risk criteria; then arc costs are defined in order to take into account both transportation out-of-pocket expenses and risk-related costs. The optimisation problem can thus be formulated as a 'minimum cost flow problem', which consists of determining for a specific hazardous substance the cheapest flow distribution, honouring the arc capacities, from the origin nodes to the destination nodes. The main features of the optimisation procedure, implemented on the computer code OPTIPATH, are presented. Test results about shipments of ammonia are discussed and finally further research developments are proposed.

  17. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  18. Dietary Patterns and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Pei-Ying; Shu, Long; Shen, Shan-Shan; Chen, Xu-Jiao; Zhang, Xiao-Yan

    2017-01-01

    A number of studies have examined the associations between dietary patterns and pancreatic cancer risk, but the findings have been inconclusive. Herein, we conducted this meta-analysis to assess the associations between dietary patterns and the risk of pancreatic cancer. MEDLINE (provided by the National Library of Medicine) and EBSCO (Elton B. Stephens Company) databases were searched for relevant articles published up to May 2016 that identified common dietary patterns. Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria and were finally included in this meta-analysis. A reduced risk of pancreatic cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest categories of healthy patterns (odds ratio, OR = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.77–0.95; p = 0.004) and light–moderate drinking patterns (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.83–0.98; p = 0.02). There was evidence of an increased risk for pancreatic cancer in the highest compared with the lowest categories of western-type pattern (OR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.06–1.45; p = 0.008) and heavy drinking pattern (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.10–1.48; p = 0.002). The results of this meta-analysis demonstrate that healthy and light–moderate drinking patterns may decrease the risk of pancreatic cancer, whereas western-type and heavy drinking patterns may increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. Additional prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings. PMID:28067765

  19. Analysis of automated highway system risks and uncertainties. Volume 5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sicherman, A.

    1994-10-01

    This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.

  20. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qi-Song Yu; He-Chao Huang; Feng Ding; Xin-Bo Wang

    2016-01-01

    Objective:To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula.Methods:A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis.Results:Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100). The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05). The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034,P<0.05).Conclusions:The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’own conditions.

  1. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  2. Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

  3. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Börner

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed.

  4. Financial risk analysis and prediction of Chinese power industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, H.; An, C. [Hebei Univ. of Technology, Tianjin (China). School of Management; Zhang, C. [Nankai Univ., Tianjin (China). School of Business

    2009-03-11

    A study of 57 Shanghai and Shenzhen power industry companies was presented. The study considered financial ratios between companies in order to determine risk factors for financial crises. Financial data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were used to investigate power company performance from 2006 to 2008. Data from the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) were also used. Results of the study indicated that the cash-to-current debt ratio, the return on equity (ROE), net asset growth ratio, and inventory turnover presented uncorrelated and significantly varying ratios for failed power companies. The study also showed that most power companies have a high proportion of liabilities, higher debt risk, low asset turnover ratios, and negative net working capital. Results of the analysis were used to design an early warning model that used logistic regression techniques to predict risk. 7 refs., 5 tabs.

  5. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process....... Even though vast amounts of money are spent upon preliminary models, environmental investigations, public hearings, etc., the resulting outcome is given by point estimates, i.e. in terms of net present values or benefit-cost rates. This thesis highlights the perspective of risks when assessing...... transport projects, namely by moving from point estimates to interval results. The main focus of this Ph.D. study has been to develop a valid, flexible and functional decision support tool in which risk oriented aspects of project evaluation is implemented. Throughout the study six papers have been produced...

  6. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being.

  7. Risk analysis of landslide disaster in Ponorogo, East Java, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koesuma, S.; Saido, A. P.; Fukuda, Y.

    2016-11-01

    Ponorogo is one of regency in South-West of East Java Province, Indonesia, where located in subduction zone between Eurasia and Australia plate tectonics. It has a lot of mountain area which is disaster-prone area for landslide. We have collected landslide data in 305 villages in Ponorogo and make it to be Hazards Index. Then we also calculate Vulnerability Index, Economic Loss index, Environmental Damage Index and Capacity Index. The risk analysis map is composed of three components H (Hazards), V (Vulnerability, Economic Loss index, Environmental Damage Index) and C (Capacity Index). The method is based on regulations of National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB) number 02/2012 and number 03/2012. It has three classes of risk index, i.e. Low, Medium and High. Ponorogo city has a medium landslide risk index.

  8. Risk Factors Analysis on Traumatic Brain Injury Prognosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-dong Qu; Resha Shrestha; Mao-de Wang

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the independent risk factors of traumatic brain injury (TBI) prognosis.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed in 885 hospitalized TEl patients from January 1,2003 to January 1, 2010 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Medical College of Xi' an Jiaotong University. Single-factor and logistic regression analysis were conducted to evaluate the association of different variables with TBI outcome.Results The single-factor analysis revealed significant association between several variables and TEl outcome, including age (P=0.044 for the age group 40-60, P<0.001 for the age group ≥60), complications (P<0.001), cerebrospinal fluid leakage (P<0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (P<0.001), pupillary light reflex (P<0.001), shock (P<0.001), associated extra-cranial lesions (P=0.01), subdural hematoma (P<0.001), cerebral contusion (P<0.001), diffuse axonal injury (P<0.001), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (P<0.001), suggesting the influence of those factors on the prognosis of TBI. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis identified age, GCS score, pupillary light reflex, subdural hematoma, and subarachnoid hemorrhage as independent risk factors of TEl prognosis.Conclusion Age, GCS score, papillary light reflex, subdural hematoma, and subarachnoid hemorrhage may be risk factors influencing the prognosis of TEl. Paying attention to those factors might improve the outcome of TBI in clinical treatment.

  9. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  10. Working session 5: Operational aspects and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cizelj, L. [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Donoghue, J. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1997-02-01

    A general observation is that both operational aspects and risk analysis cannot be adequately discussed without information presented in other sessions. Some overlap of conclusions and recommendations is therefore to be expected. Further, it was assumed that recommendations concerning improvements in some related topics were generated by other sessions and are not repeated here. These include: (1) Knowledge on degradation mechanisms (initiation, progression, and failure). (2) Modeling of degradation (initiation, progression, and failure). (3) Capabilities of NDE methods. (4) Preventive maintenance and repair. One should note here, however, that all of these directly affect both operational and risk aspects of affected plants. A list of conclusions and recommendations is based on available presentations and discussions addressing risk and operational experience. The authors aimed at reaching as broad a consensus as possible. It should be noted here that there is no strict delineation between operational and safety aspects of degradation of steam generator tubes. This is caused by different risk perceptions in different countries/societies. The conclusions and recommendations were divided into four broad groups: human reliability; leakage monitoring; risk impact; and consequence assessment.

  11. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials releas

  12. Living with Risk in Everyday Life - A Comparative Analysis on Handling and Reflecting Risk in Everyday Actions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elverdam, Beth; Hoel Felde, Lina Klara

    phones; chemicals in a nursery; elevated cholesterol was combined to analyse the concept of risk in everyday life. In-depth qualitative interviews with 46 people made it possible to analyse a general perception of risk in everyday life. Interviews were analysed using a phenomenological thematical content...... analysis. Results: Although risk is communicated in the media and by health personnel, and thus has a general presence in society, participants in everyday life place risk at the periphery of life. Risk is not part of their everyday reflections. When risk manifests itself in everyday life, it is reflected...

  13. An Investigation Of Organizational Information Security Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zack Jourdan

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite a growing number and variety of information security threats, many organizations continue to neglect implementing information security policies and procedures.  The likelihood that an organization’s information systems can fall victim to these threats is known as information systems risk (Straub & Welke, 1998.  To combat these threats, an organization must undergo a rigorous process of self-analysis. To better understand the current state of this information security risk analysis (ISRA process, this study deployed a questionnaire using both open-ended and closed ended questions administered to a group of information security professionals (N=32.  The qualitative and quantitative results of this study show that organizations are beginning to conduct regularly scheduled ISRA processes.  However, the results also show that organizations still have room for improvement to create idyllic ISRA processes. 

  14. Software requirements specification for the program analysis and control system risk management module

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SCHAEFER, J.C.

    1999-06-02

    TWR Program Analysis and Control System Risk Module is used to facilitate specific data processes surrounding the Risk Management program of the Tank Waste Retrieval environment. This document contains the Risk Management system requirements of the database system.

  15. Effects of Zibu Piyin Recipe(滋补脾阴方药)on SNK-SPAR Pathway in Neuron Injury Induced by Glutamate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAN Li-bin; SUI Hua; LU Xiao-guang; SUN Chang-kai; ZHANG Jian; MA Hui

    2008-01-01

    Objective:To investigate the relationship between the excitotoxicity and seruminducible kinase(SNK)and spine-associated Rap GTPase-activating protein(SPAR)pathway in primary hippocampal neuron injury induced by glutamate and furthermore,to explore the molecular between ZBPYR and the morphological regulation of dendritic spines.Methods:The serum containing ZBPYR was prepared by seropharmacology.Reverse transcription and polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR)was used to detect the expression of mRNA for SNK,SPAR,postsynaptic density protein 95(PSD-95)and N-methyl-D-aspartate(NMDA)receptor subunits(NR1,NR2A and NR2B)in primary rat hippocampal neuron cultures after pretreatment with 10 μ mol/L glutamate and ZBPYR serum.Results:ZBPYR serum pretreatment resulted in a significant down-regulation of glutamate-induced SNK mRNA expression(P<0.05).Significant up-regulation was seen on the mRNA expression of SPAR and PSD-95 (P<0.05).All these changes were dose-dependent.The mRNA expression of NR1,NR2A and NR2B was down-regulated to different degrees(P<0.05).Conclusion:The mechanism of effect of ZBPYR on glutamate-induced excitotoxicity may be related to the regulation of SNK-SPAR signal pathway.ZBPYR may play a role in protecting and maintaining the normal morphology and structure of dendritic spines,which may be achieved by inhibiting the excessive activation of NMDA receptors.

  16. Risk analysis of tyramine concentration in food production

    OpenAIRE

    Doudová, Lucie; Buňka, František; Michálek, Jaroslav; Sedlačík, Marek; Buňková, Leona

    2013-01-01

    The contribution is focused on risk analysis in food microbiology. This paper evaluates the effect of selected factors on tyramine production in bacterial strains of Lactococcus genus which were assigned as tyramine producers. Tyramine is a biogenic amine sythesized from an amino acid called tyrosine. It can be found in certain foodstuffs (often in cheese), and can cause a pseudo-response in sensitive individuals. The above-mentioned bacteria are commonly used in the biotechnological process ...

  17. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sibel ÇELİK

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks since it underlines the critical factors in liquidity risk management.

  18. Risk Analysis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhi-fang Jia; Meng Su; Miao He; Zhi-hua Yin; Wei Wu; Xue-lian Li; Peng Guan; Bao-sen Zhou

    2009-01-01

    Objective: It is known that chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a main risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). To assess the effect of HBV infection and its interaction with other factors on the risk for HCC, a hospital-based case-control study was carried out in Northeast China. Methods: A total of 384 cases with hepatocellular carcinoma and 432 controls without evidence of liver diseases were enrolled in the study. Blood samples were collected to detect the serum markers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) and questionnaires about lifestyle and family tumor history were performed in all subjects. Results: The total infection rate of HBV in hepatocellular carcinoma cases was 70.8% and 10.0% in non-liver disease controls. There was a statistically significant difference (P<0.0001) between cases and controls (OR= 22.0; 95%CI:15.0-32.3). Interaction analysis indicated that in HBV chronic carriers with HCV infection or alcohol consumption or family HCC history, the risk for HCC increased (OR=41.1, 95%CI: 20.2-83.9, OR=125.0, 95%CI: 66.5-235.2; OR=56.9, 95%CI: 27.2-119.3 respectively). In addition, hepatitis B history, HCV infection, hepatic cirrhosis and family history of HCC were also potential HCC independent risk factors. Conclusion: We confirmed that HBV is a chief risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma and accounts for 67.7% of all hepatocellular carcinoma in Northeast China. HCV infection, alcohol intake and family history could enhance the risk for HCC in chronic HBV carriers.

  19. Analysis and evaluation of enterprise risk management capability elements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Research on enterprise risk management capability is conducted with a view of discerning and processing risks, in which an evaluation index system and an evaluation model of enterprise risk management capabilities are constructed. The risk management capability consists of four aspects, i.e. risk identification capability, risk assessment capability, risk planning capability and risk control capability. Risk identification and assessment capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on finding and analyzing...

  20. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    according to location, as demonstrated for microbial, chemical and physical parameters between sub-catchments. Variations in wastewater quality, as well as rainfall, system and environmental effects (solar radiation), cause knock-on variations in floodwater composition, because they are functions...... of these parameters. Variations between locations have been demonstrated through measurements of microbial concentrations in flooding episodes, while changes in microbial concentrations over time have been demonstrated through a survival and decay study, where decay was substantial in the presence of UV light......, the drainage model was validated by comparison of modelled and measured microbial concentrations in CSOs. The model result was used in the analysis of the risk of infection from exposure to urban flooding which resulted in a risk of 10.3 to 10-1 from exposure to flooding, both from cleaning up flooding...

  1. Risk-management and risk-analysis-based decision tools for attacks on electric power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonoff, Jeffrey S; Restrepo, Carlos E; Zimmerman, Rae

    2007-06-01

    Incident data about disruptions to the electric power grid provide useful information that can be used as inputs into risk management policies in the energy sector for disruptions from a variety of origins, including terrorist attacks. This article uses data from the Disturbance Analysis Working Group (DAWG) database, which is maintained by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), to look at incidents over time in the United States and Canada for the period 1990-2004. Negative binomial regression, logistic regression, and weighted least squares regression are used to gain a better understanding of how these disturbances varied over time and by season during this period, and to analyze how characteristics such as number of customers lost and outage duration are related to different characteristics of the outages. The results of the models can be used as inputs to construct various scenarios to estimate potential outcomes of electric power outages, encompassing the risks, consequences, and costs of such outages.

  2. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sterlacchini

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

    A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

  3. Cascade vulnerability for risk analysis of water infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitzenfrei, R; Mair, M; Möderl, M; Rauch, W

    2011-01-01

    One of the major tasks in urban water management is failure-free operation for at least most of the time. Accordingly, the reliability of the network systems in urban water management has a crucial role. The failure of a component in these systems impacts potable water distribution and urban drainage. Therefore, water distribution and urban drainage systems are categorized as critical infrastructure. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is likely to experience harm induced by perturbation or stress. However, for risk assessment, we usually assume that events and failures are singular and independent, i.e. several simultaneous events and cascading events are unconsidered. Although failures can be causally linked, a simultaneous consideration in risk analysis is hardly considered. To close this gap, this work introduces the term cascade vulnerability for water infrastructure. Cascade vulnerability accounts for cascading and simultaneous events. Following this definition, cascade risk maps are a merger of hazard and cascade vulnerability maps. In this work cascade vulnerability maps for water distribution systems and urban drainage systems based on the 'Achilles-Approach' are introduced and discussed. It is shown, that neglecting cascading effects results in significant underestimation of risk scenarios.

  4. Flood Risk Analysis and Flood Potential Losses Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The heavy floods in the Taihu Basin showed increasing trend in recent years. In thiswork, a typical area in the northern Taihu Basin was selected for flood risk analysis and potentialflood losses assessment. Human activities have strong impact on the study area' s flood situation (asaffected by the polders built, deforestation, population increase, urbanization, etc. ), and havemade water level higher, flood duration shorter, and flood peaks sharper. Five years of differentflood return periods [(1970), 5 (1962), 10 (1987), 20 (1954), 50 (1991)] were used to cal-culate the potential flood risk area and its losses. The potential flood risk map, economic losses,and flood-impacted population were also calculated. The study's main conclusions are: 1 ) Humanactivities have strongly changed the natural flood situation in the study area, increasing runoff andflooding; 2) The flood risk area is closely related with the precipitation center; 3) Polder construc-tion has successfully protected land from flood, shortened the flood duration, and elevated waterlevel in rivers outside the polders; 4) Economic and social development have caused flood losses toincrease in recent years.

  5. Risk Propagation Analysis and Visualization using Percolation Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Konig

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a percolation-based approach for the analysis of risk propagation, using malware spreading as a showcase example. Conventional risk management is often driven by human (subjective assessment of how one risk influences the other, respectively, how security incidents can affect subsequent problems in interconnected (subsystems of an infrastructure. Using percolation theory, a well-established methodology in the fields of epidemiology and disease spreading, a simple simulation-based method is described to assess risk propagation system-atically. This simulation is formally analyzed using percolation theory, to obtain closed form criteria that help predicting a pandemic incident propagation (or a propagation with average-case bounded implications. The method is designed as a security decision support tool, e.g., to be used in security operation centers. For that matter, a flexible visualization technique is devised, which is naturally induced by the percolation model and the simulation algorithm that derives from it. The main output of the model is a graphical visualization of the infrastructure (physical or logical topology. This representation uses color codes to indicate the likelihood of problems to arise from a security incident that initially occurs at a given point in the system. Large likelihoods for problems thus indicate “hotspots”, where additional action should be taken.

  6. Securitization of Receivables - An Analysis of the Inherent Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Roberto Ferreira Savoia

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Securitization is a modality of structured finance which allows a company to raise funds based on its receivables through capital markets. In Brazil, securitization was developed mostly in the form of mutual funds - the FIDC, which raise money by issuing senior cotes for qualified investors, and subordinated cotes, usually bought by the company that originated the receivables. This paper evaluates the risk and return for both kinds of investors through a stochastic model with two main variables: interest rates and default rates. The model is still sensible to the characteristics of the fund, like the amount of subordinated cotes, the type of asset being securitized; and the amount of receivables in relation to the assets. Regarding the case of senior cotes, the risk of returns under the basic level of interest rates is highly improbable; and in the case of subordinated cotes, the risk of returns under the basic interest rate may be considered still low, due to the high spreads observed in the Brazilian financial market. The simulations indicated that under historically mean interest rate volatility the default rates are the main component of the total risk. Accordingly to the developed analysis of international standards of regulation, the Brazilian Central Bank imposes very strong capital requirements to banks that securitize their assets and purchase the corresponding subordinated cotes.

  7. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009.

  8. Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michael M·derl; Wolfgang Rauch

    2011-01-01

    The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g.,by terrorist attacks,infrastructure deterioration or climate change.For the spatial risk assessment,vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process.Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios.Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario.Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past.The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system,but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure.The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.

  9. Prenatal stress increased Snk Polo-like kinase 2, SCF β-TrCP ubiquitin ligase and ubiquitination of SPAR in the hippocampus of the offspring at adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chutabhakdikul, Naunchan; Surakul, Pornprom

    2013-11-01

    Exposure to excessive glucocorticoids during fetal development period contributes to later life psychopathology. Prenatal stress decreases dendritic spine density and impair LTP in the hippocampus of rat pups, however, the mechanisms regulating these changes are still unclear. Glutamate receptors are localized in the postsynaptic density. PSD-95 is a postsynaptic scaffolding protein that plays a role in synaptic maturation and regulation of the synaptic strength and plasticity. PSD-95 interacts with other proteins to form the protein networks that promote dendritic spine formation. The present study investigated the effect of prenatal stress on the levels of scaffolding proteins of NMDA receptor in the hippocampus in order to explain how prenatal stress alters the amount of NMDA receptor in the pups' brain. Pregnant rats were randomly assigned to either the prenatal stress (PS) or the control group (C). The pregnant rats in the PS group were restrained in a plexiglas restrainer for 4h/day during the GD 14-21. Control rats were left undisturbed for the duration of their pregnancies. The amount of PSD-95, SPAR, NR2A and NR2B, as well as the levels of Snk Polo-like kinase 2 and the SCF β-TrCP ubiquitin ligase were measured in the hippocampus of the offspring. The results show that prenatal stress induces a reduction in the amount of NR2B and NR2A subunits in the hippocampus of rat pups, parallel to the decrease in PSD-95 and SPAR at P40 and P60. Moreover, prenatal stress increases Snk and β-TrCP in the hippocampus of rat pups, and the timing correlates with the decrease of SPAR and PSD-95. Prenatal stress also induces a significantly increases in the level of ubiquitinated SPAR in the hippocampus of rat pups at adulthood. The results suggest that degradation of SPAR via UPS system may contribute to the loss of PSD-95 and NMDA receptor subunits in the hippocampus of rat pups at adulthood. In conclusion, the present work demonstrates that the developing brain is

  10. LAVA (Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology): A conceptual framework for automated risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.; Phillips, J.R.; Tisinger, R.M.; Brown, D.C.; FitzGerald, P.D.

    1986-01-01

    At Los Alamos National Laboratory, we have developed an original methodology for performing risk analyses on subject systems characterized by a general set of asset categories, a general spectrum of threats, a definable system-specific set of safeguards protecting the assets from the threats, and a general set of outcomes resulting from threats exploiting weaknesses in the safeguards system. The Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology (LAVA) models complex systems having large amounts of ''soft'' information about both the system itself and occurrences related to the system. Its structure lends itself well to automation on a portable computer, making it possible to analyze numerous similar but geographically separated installations consistently and in as much depth as the subject system warrants. LAVA is based on hierarchical systems theory, event trees, fuzzy sets, natural-language processing, decision theory, and utility theory. LAVA's framework is a hierarchical set of fuzzy event trees that relate the results of several embedded (or sub-) analyses: a vulnerability assessment providing information about the presence and efficacy of system safeguards, a threat analysis providing information about static (background) and dynamic (changing) threat components coupled with an analysis of asset ''attractiveness'' to the dynamic threat, and a consequence analysis providing information about the outcome spectrum's severity measures and impact values. By using LAVA, we have modeled our widely used computer security application as well as LAVA/CS systems for physical protection, transborder data flow, contract awards, and property management. It is presently being applied for modeling risk management in embedded systems, survivability systems, and weapons systems security. LAVA is especially effective in modeling subject systems that include a large human component.

  11. An adhesive bond state classification method for a composite skin-to-spar joint using chaotic insonification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasel, Timothy R.; Todd, Michael D.

    2010-07-01

    The combination of chaotically amplitude-modulated ultrasonic waves and time series prediction algorithms has shown the ability to locate and classify various bond state damage conditions of a composite bonded joint. This study examines the ability of a new two-part supervised learning classification scheme not only to classify disbond size but also to classify whether a bond for which there is no baseline data is undamaged or has some form of disbond. This classification is performed using data from a similarly configured composite bond for which baseline data are available. The test structures are analogous to a wing skin-to-spar bonded joint. An active excitation signal is imparted to the structure through a macro fiber composite (MFC) patch on one side of the bonded joint and sensed using an equivalent MFC patch on the opposite side of the joint. There is an MFC actuator/sensor pair for each bond condition to be identified. The classification approach compares features derived from an autoregressive (AR) model coefficient vector cross-assurance criterion.

  12. Risk analysis and the law: international law, the World Trade Organization, Codex Alimentarius and national legislation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, L R

    2001-12-01

    This paper discusses the place of risk analysis in international trade from a US perspective, through looking at the activities of the World Trade Organization and the Codex Alimentarius Commission. After examining what the trade agreements say about risk analysis and how international bodies are advancing and using risk analysis, the paper goes on to assess how risk analysis is used at a national level. Finally, recommendations are made for strengthening international food safety initiatives.

  13. Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sant´Anna Danielle D.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%. In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector?s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.

  14. Use Of Risk Analysis Fremeworks In Urban Flood Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik

    In the period 1960 – 1990 rapid urban development took place all over Europe, and notably in Denmark urban sprawl occurred around many cities. Favorable economic conditions ensured that the urbanization continued, although at a lower rate, until recently. However, from 1990 to present a increase...... in extreme precipitation has been observed, corresponding to an increase of design levels of at least 30 %. Analysis of climate change model output has given clear evidence, that further increases in extreme precipitation must be expected in the future due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses...... with better decision support tools. Some of the developments are risk frameworks that encompass economic and/or ethic evaluation of climate change adaptation options and improved risk management. This line of development is based on a societal-based evaluation of maximizing the outcome for society...

  15. Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk Based Inspection analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhus, Torben Lund; Hillier, Elizabeth; Andersen, Erlend S.

    2016-01-01

    in the offshore industry as a means to justify the inspection strategy adopted. The RBI analysis is a decision-making technique that enables asset managers to identify the risk related to failure of their most critical systems and components, with an effect on safety, environmental and business related issues....... Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed in order to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented...... and discussed. From a risk perspective, MIC is not satisfactorily assessed by the current models and the models lack a proper view of the MIC threat. Therefore, a review of known parameters that affect MIC is presented. The mapping and identification of parameters is based on the review of past models...

  16. ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES BANKRUPTCY RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulcsar Edina

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the fundamental role of small and medium enterprises in Romanian economy, this paper aims to quantify the level of their bankruptcy risk for 2009 and 2012 period, after debuting of financial crisis. The main reason of selecting this type of companies is that they represent the backbone of national economy. They have an indispensable role, because they offer jobs for great part of population and their contribution for GDP stimulation is considerable. In this paper it was applied two default risk models, namely the well known Altman’s Z-score model, based on five financial ratios and a bankruptcy predictor model developed by Teti et. al (2012 used firstly exclusively for Italian small and medium-sized enterprise for 2006-2009 period. The model proposed by Teti et. is based on the investigation of financially distressed and financially non-distressed Italian small and medium-sized enterprises during the financial crisis by using a discriminant analysis model. They conclude that there are four financial ratios, which characterized well the small and medium-sized enterprises bankruptcy risk. These variables are financial ratios, like: Debt/Total Assets, Return on Sales (ROS, EBIT/Interest Expenses and Working capital/EBIDTA. They consider that small and medium-sized enterprises require a particular approach in terms of bankruptcy risk analysis. In present study I try to compare the efficiency of traditional bankruptcy risk model with a small and medium-sized specific model. The necessary database for present analysis is ensured by simplified financial reports of 120 small and medium-sized enterprises registered in Bihor County. The selected enterprises are operating in manufacturing industry (21,67% and trading (78,33%. Present investigation has an important value in actual economic background, where the healthiness and sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises is a great issue. The results of study shows contradictory

  17. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  18. Probabilistic Approach to Risk Analysis of Chemical Spills at Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Magda Bogalecka; Krzysztof Kolowrocki

    2006-01-01

    Risk analysis of chemical spills at sea and their consequences for sea environment are discussed. Mutual interactions between the process of the sea accident initiating events, the process of the sea environment threats, and the process of the sea environment degradation are investigated. To describe these three particular processes, the separate semi-Markov models are built. Furthermore, these models are jointed into one general model of these processes interactions.Moreover, some comments on the method for statistical identification of the considered models are proposed.

  19. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  20. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  1. Metabolic disease risk in children by salivary biomarker analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Max Goodson

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The study of obesity-related metabolic syndrome or Type 2 diabetes (T2D in children is particularly difficult because of fear of needles. We tested a non-invasive approach to study inflammatory parameters in an at-risk population of children to provide proof-of-principle for future investigations of vulnerable subjects. DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated metabolic differences in 744, 11-year old children selected from underweight, normal healthy weight, overweight and obese categories by analyzing fasting saliva samples for 20 biomarkers. Saliva supernatants were obtained following centrifugation and used for analyses. RESULTS: Salivary C-reactive protein (CRP was 6 times higher, salivary insulin and leptin were 3 times higher, and adiponectin was 30% lower in obese children compared to healthy normal weight children (all P<0.0001. Categorical analysis suggested that there might be three types of obesity in children. Distinctly inflammatory characteristics appeared in 76% of obese children while in 13%, salivary insulin was high but not associated with inflammatory mediators. The remaining 11% of obese children had high insulin and reduced adiponectin. Forty percent of the non-obese children were found in groups which, based on biomarker characteristics, may be at risk for becoming obese. CONCLUSIONS: Significantly altered levels of salivary biomarkers in obese children from a high-risk population, suggest the potential for developing non-invasive screening procedures to identify T2D-vulnerable individuals and a means to test preventative strategies.

  2. Risk Perception Analysis Related To Existing Dams In Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solimene, Pellegrino

    2013-04-01

    earthfill dam is illustrated by defining the risk analysis during its construction and operation. A qualitative "Event Tree Analysis" makes clear with an example the probability of occurrence of the events triggered by an earthquake, and leads to a classification of the damage level. Finally, a System Dynamics (SD) approach is presented to investigate possibilities of a preventive planning in relationship to the risk, so that it's possible to establish shared procedures to achieve the correct management in any crisis phase. As a qualitative result of a SD application, figure 1 presents a flow-chart about a case study on the same dam so to illustrate the emergency planning in a step by step procedure according to the Regulations.

  3. Bisphosphonates and risk of cardiovascular events: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dae Hyun Kim

    Full Text Available Some evidence suggests that bisphosphonates may reduce atherosclerosis, while concerns have been raised about atrial fibrillation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effects of bisphosphonates on total adverse cardiovascular (CV events, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction (MI, stroke, and CV death in adults with or at risk for low bone mass.A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE through July 2014 identified 58 randomized controlled trials with longer than 6 months in duration that reported CV events. Absolute risks and the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs of total CV events, atrial fibrillation, MI, stroke, and CV death were estimated. Subgroup analyses by follow-up duration, population characteristics, bisphosphonate types, and route were performed.Absolute risks over 25-36 months in bisphosphonate-treated versus control patients were 6.5% versus 6.2% for total CV events; 1.4% versus 1.5% for atrial fibrillation; 1.0% versus 1.2% for MI; 1.6% versus 1.9% for stroke; and 1.5% versus 1.4% for CV death. Bisphosphonate treatment up to 36 months did not have any significant effects on total CV events (14 trials; ORs [95% CI]: 0.98 [0.84-1.14]; I2 = 0.0%, atrial fibrillation (41 trials; 1.08 [0.92-1.25]; I2 = 0.0%, MI (10 trials; 0.96 [0.69-1.34]; I2 = 0.0%, stroke (10 trials; 0.99 [0.82-1.19]; I2 = 5.8%, and CV death (14 trials; 0.88 [0.72-1.07]; I2 = 0.0% with little between-study heterogeneity. The risk of atrial fibrillation appears to be modestly elevated for zoledronic acid (6 trials; 1.24 [0.96-1.61]; I2 = 0.0%, not for oral bisphosphonates (26 trials; 1.02 [0.83-1.24]; I2 = 0.0%. The CV effects did not vary by subgroups or study quality.Bisphosphonates do not have beneficial or harmful effects on atherosclerotic CV events, but zoledronic acid may modestly increase the risk of atrial fibrillation. Given the large reduction in fractures with bisphosphonates, changes in

  4. Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, Alan A.; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

    2017-01-01

    We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. PMID:28257416

  5. Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

    2010-04-15

    During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

  6. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  7. RAVEN, a New Software for Dynamic Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cristian Rabiti; Andrea Alfonsi; Joshua Cogliati; Diego Mandelli; Robert Kinoshita

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN is a generic software driver to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis of code simulating complex systems. Initially developed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the RELAP-7 code [1] is currently being generalized with the addition of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These interfaces are used to extend RAVEN capabilities to any software as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or directly via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable to investigate the system response probing the input space using Monte Carlo, grid strategies, or Latin Hyper Cube schemes, but its strength is its focus toward system feature discovery like limit surfaces separating regions of the input space leading to system failure using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The paper will present an overview of the software capabilities and their implementation schemes followed by same application examples.

  8. The STABALID project: Risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries for power system applications

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    This work presents a risk analysis performed to stationary Li-ion batteries within the framework of the STABALID project. The risk analysis had as main objective analysing the variety of hazards and dangerous situations that might be experienced by the battery during its life cycle and providing useful information on how to prevent or manage those undesired events. The first task of the risk analysis was the identification of all the hazards (or risks) that may arise during the battery life c...

  9. Dietary acrylamide and cancer risk: an updated meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelucchi, Claudio; Bosetti, Cristina; Galeone, Carlotta; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2015-06-15

    The debate on the potential carcinogenic effect of dietary acrylamide is open. In consideration of the recent findings from large prospective investigations, we conducted an updated meta-analysis on acrylamide intake and the risk of cancer at several sites. Up to July 2014, we identified 32 publications. We performed meta-analyses to calculate the summary relative risk (RR) of each cancer site for the highest versus lowest level of intake and for an increment of 10 µg/day of dietary acrylamide, through fixed-effects or random-effects models, depending on the heterogeneity test. Fourteen cancer sites could be examined. No meaningful associations were found for most cancers considered. The summary RRs for high versus low acrylamide intake were 0.87 for oral and pharyngeal, 1.14 for esophageal, 1.03 for stomach, 0.94 for colorectal, 0.93 for pancreatic, 1.10 for laryngeal, 0.88 for lung, 0.96 for breast, 1.06 for endometrial, 1.12 for ovarian, 1.00 for prostate, 0.93 for bladder and 1.13 for lymphoid malignancies. The RR was of borderline significance only for kidney cancer (RR = 1.20; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.00-1.45). All the corresponding continuous estimates ranged between 0.95 and 1.03, and none of them was significant. Among never-smokers, borderline associations with dietary acrylamide emerged for endometrial (RR = 1.23; 95% CI, 1.00-1.51) and ovarian (RR = 1.39; 95% CI, 0.97-2.00) cancers. This systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies indicates that dietary acrylamide is not related to the risk of most common cancers. A modest association for kidney cancer, and for endometrial and ovarian cancers in never smokers only, cannot be excluded.

  10. Dynamic Risk Analysis of Permanent Deformation of Sea Embankment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高玉峰; 刘汉龙; 余湘娟

    2001-01-01

    For evaluation of the permanent deformation of a sea embankment under stochastic earthquake excitation, a robust dynamic risk analytical method is presented based on conventional permanent deformation analysis and stochastic seismic response analysis. This method can predict not only the mean value of maximum permanent deformation but also the reliability corresponding to different deformation control standards. The earthquake motion is modelled as a stationary Gaussian filtered white noise random process. The predicted average maximum horizontal permanent displacement is in agreement with the conventional result. Further studied are the reliability of permanent deformation due to stochastic wave details at one seismic motion level and the risk of permanent deformation due to stochastic seismic strength, i. e., the maximum acceleration in a long period. Therefore, it is possible to make the optimal design in terms of safety and economy according to the importance of a sea embankment. It is suggested that the improved stochastic seismic model that can catch the behavior of the non-stationary random process for sea embankments should be further studied in future.

  11. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS IN 3901 PATIENTS WITH STROKE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin-Feng Liu; Guy van Melle; Julien Bogousslavsky

    2005-01-01

    Objective To estimate the frequency of various risk factors for overall stroke and to identify risk factors for cerebral infarction (CI) versus intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in a large hospital-based stroke registry.Methods Data from a total of 3901 patients, consisting of 3525 patients with CI and 376 patients with ICH were prospectively coded and entered into a computerized data bank.Results Hypertension and smoking were the most prominent factors affecting overall stroke followed by mild internal carotid artery stenosis (< 50%), hypercholesterolemia, transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), diabetes mellitus, and cardiac ischemia. Univariate analysis showed that factors in male significantly associated with CI versus ICH were old age, a family history of stroke, and intermittent claudication; whereas in female the factors were oral contraception and migraine. By multivariate analysis, in all patients, the factors significantly associated with CI as opposed to ICH were smoking, hypercholesterolemia, migraine, TIAs, atrial fibrillation, structural heart disease, and arterial disease. Hypertension was the only significant factor related with ICH versus CI.Conclusions The factors for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke are not exactly the same. Cardiac and arterial disease are the most powerful factors associated with CI rather than ICH.

  12. Risk analysis and emergency management of ammonia installations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ham, J.M.; Gansevoort, J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Quantitative Risk Assessment has been increasing for evaluating the risk of handling hazardous materials and land-use planning. This article reports on several studies carried out on the risk of handling, storage and transport of ammonia.

  13. Establishment of a Risk Assessment Framework for Analysis of the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jing; WANG Jing-fei; WU Chun-yan; YANG Yan-tao; JI Zeng-tao; WANG Hong-bin

    2007-01-01

    To evaluate the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in mainland China, a risk assessment framework was built.Risk factors were determined by analyzing the epidemic data using the brainstorming method; the analytic hierarchy process was designed to weigh risk factors, and the integrated multicriteria analysis was used to evaluate the final result.The completed framework included the risk factor system, data standards for risk factors, weights of risk factors, and integrated assessment methods. This risk assessment framework can be used to quantitatively analyze the outbreak and spread of HPAI in mainland China.

  14. Risk factors for progressive ischemic stroke A retrospective analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Progressive ischemic stroke has higher fatality rate and disability rate than common cerebral infarction, thus it is very significant to investigate the early predicting factors related to the occurrence of progressive ischemic stroke, thc potential pathological mechanism and the risk factors of early intervention for preventing the occurrence of progressive ischemic stroke and ameliorating its outcome.OBJECTIVE: To analyze the possible related risk factors in patients with progressive ishcemic stroke, so as to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of progressive ishcemic stroke.DESIGN: A retrospective analysis.SETTING: Department of Neurology, General Hospital of Beijing Coal Mining Group.PARTICIPANTS: Totally 280 patients with progressive ischemic stroke were selected from the Department of Neurology, General Hospital of Beijing Coal Mining Group from March 2002 to June 2006, including 192 males and 88 females, with a mean age of (62±7) years old. They were all accorded with the diagnostic standards for cerebral infarction set by the Fourth National Academic Meeting for Cerebrovascular Disease in 1995, and confired by CT or MRI, admitted within 24 hours after attack, and the neurological defect progressed gradually or aggravated in gradients within 72 hours after attack, and the aggravation of neurological defect was defined as the neurological deficit score decreased by more than 2 points. Meanwhile,200 inpatients with non-progressive ischemic stroke (135 males and 65 females) were selected as the control group.METHODS: After admission, a univariate analysis of variance was conducted using the factors of blood pressure, history of diabetes mellitus, fever, leukocytosis, levels of blood lipids, fibrinogen, blood glucose and plasma homocysteine, cerebral arterial stenosis, and CT symptoms of early infarction, and the significant factors were involved in the multivariate non-conditional Logistic regression analysis.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

  15. Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

  16. Approximate Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis with Vine Copulas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedford, Tim; Daneshkhah, Alireza; Wilson, Kevin J

    2016-04-01

    Many applications of risk analysis require us to jointly model multiple uncertain quantities. Bayesian networks and copulas are two common approaches to modeling joint uncertainties with probability distributions. This article focuses on new methodologies for copulas by developing work of Cooke, Bedford, Kurowica, and others on vines as a way of constructing higher dimensional distributions that do not suffer from some of the restrictions of alternatives such as the multivariate Gaussian copula. The article provides a fundamental approximation result, demonstrating that we can approximate any density as closely as we like using vines. It further operationalizes this result by showing how minimum information copulas can be used to provide parametric classes of copulas that have such good levels of approximation. We extend previous approaches using vines by considering nonconstant conditional dependencies, which are particularly relevant in financial risk modeling. We discuss how such models may be quantified, in terms of expert judgment or by fitting data, and illustrate the approach by modeling two financial data sets.

  17. Local Behavior of Sparse Analysis Regularization: Applications to Risk Estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vaiter, Samuel; Peyré, Gabriel; Dossal, Charles; Fadili, Jalal

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies the recovery of an unknown signal $x_0$ from low dimensional noisy observations $y = \\Phi x_0 + w$, where $\\Phi$ is an ill-posed linear operator and $w$ accounts for some noise. We focus our attention to sparse analysis regularization. The recovery is performed by minimizing the sum of a quadratic data fidelity term and the $\\lun$-norm of the correlations between the sought after signal and atoms in a given (generally overcomplete) dictionary. The $\\lun$ prior is weighted by a regularization parameter $\\lambda > 0$ that accounts for the noise level. In this paper, we prove that minimizers of this problem are piecewise-affine functions of the observations $y$ and the regularization parameter $\\lambda$. As a byproduct, we exploit these properties to get an objectively guided choice of $\\lambda$. More precisely, we propose an extension of the Generalized Stein Unbiased Risk Estimator (GSURE) and show that it is an unbiased estimator of an appropriately defined risk. This encompasses special ca...

  18. Risk of Hypothyroidism following Hemithyroidectomy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prognostic Studies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verloop, H.; Louwerens, M.; Schoones, J.W.; Kievit, J.; Smit, J.W.A.; Dekkers, O.M.

    2012-01-01

    Context: The reported risk of hypothyroidism after hemithyroidectomy shows considerable heterogeneity in literature. Objective: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine the overall risk of hypothyroidism, both clinical and subclinical, after hemithyroidectomy. Furthermore

  19. Risk analysis of sustainable urban drainage and irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ursino, Nadia

    2015-09-01

    Urbanization, by creating extended impervious areas, to the detriment of vegetated ones, may have an undesirable influence on the water and energy balances of urban environments. The storage and infiltration capacity of the drainage system lessens the negative influence of urbanization, and vegetated areas help to re-establish pre-development environmental conditions. Resource limitation, climate, leading to increasing water scarcity, demographic and socio-institutional shifts promote more integrated water management. Storm-water harvesting for landscape irrigation mitigates possible water restrictions for the urban population in drought scenarios. A new probabilistic model for sustainable rainfall drainage, storage and re-use systems was implemented in this study. Risk analysis of multipurpose storage capacities was generalized by the use of only a few dimensionless parameters and applied to a case study in a Mediterranean-type climate, although the applicability of the model is not restricted to any particular climatic type.

  20. 76 FR 13972 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Papaya Fruit From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-15

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... prepared a pest risk analysis for the purpose of evaluating the pest risks associated with the importation... sufficient to mitigate the pest risk. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for...

  1. 75 FR 6346 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Male Summer Squash...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-09

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation of fresh... to mitigate the pest risk. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for...

  2. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundtang Paulsen, J

    2004-05-01

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  3. Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty: an ESDMA Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J. H.

    2012-01-01

    Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations and nations use truly integrated risk-capability approaches, and almost none use integrated risk-capability approaches that take dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty seriously into account. Thi...

  4. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequen...

  5. Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model

    OpenAIRE

    Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

    2016-01-01

    Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event co...

  6. Study of Hip Fracture Risk using Tree Structured Survival Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Y

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In dieser Studie wird das Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei postmenopausalen Frauen untersucht, indem die Frauen in verschiedene Subgruppen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos klassifiziert werden. Frauen in einer gemeinsamen Subgruppe haben ein ähnliches Risiko, hingegen in verschiedenen Subgruppen ein unterschiedliches Hüftfraktur-Risiko. Die Subgruppen wurden mittels der Tree Structured Survival Analysis (TSSA aus den Daten von 7.665 Frauen der SOF (Study of Osteoporosis Fracture ermittelt. Bei allen Studienteilnehmerinnen wurde die Knochenmineraldichte (BMD von Unterarm, Oberschenkelhals, Hüfte und Wirbelsäule gemessen. Die Zeit von der BMD-Messung bis zur Hüftfraktur wurde als Endpunkt notiert. Eine Stichprobe von 75% der Teilnehmerinnen wurde verwendet, um die prognostischen Subgruppen zu bilden (Trainings-Datensatz, während die anderen 25% als Bestätigung der Ergebnisse diente (Validierungs-Datensatz. Aufgrund des Trainings-Datensatzes konnten mittels TSSA 4 Subgruppen identifiziert werden, deren Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei einem Follow-up von im Mittel 6,5 Jahren bei 19%, 9%, 4% und 1% lag. Die Einteilung in die Subgruppen erfolgte aufgrund der Bewertung der BMD des Ward'schen Dreiecks sowie des Oberschenkelhalses und nach dem Alter. Diese Ergebnisse konnten mittels des Validierungs-Datensatzes reproduziert werden, was die Sinnhaftigkeit der Klassifizierungregeln in einem klinischen Setting bestätigte. Mittels TSSA war eine sinnvolle, aussagekräftige und reproduzierbare Identifikation von prognostischen Subgruppen, die auf dem Alter und den BMD-Werten beruhen, möglich. In this paper we studied the risk of hip fracture for post-menopausal women by classifying women into different subgroups based on their risk of hip fracture. The subgroups were generated such that all the women in a particular subgroup had relatively similar risk while women belonging to two different subgroups had rather different risks of hip fracture. We used the Tree Structured

  7. An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

    2011-07-01

    In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards.

  8. Imminent Cardiac Risk Assessment via Optical Intravascular Biochemical Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wetzel, D.; Wetzel, L; Wetzel, M; Lodder, R

    2009-01-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination are

  9. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fragola, Joseph R

    1996-02-01

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with the introduction of new materials (such as wrought iron and steel) and the lack of theoretical knowledge and computational facilities, approximate methods of structural design abounded well into the second half of the 20th century. To this day structural designers account for material variations and gaps in theoretical knowledge by employing factors of safety (Benvenuto, E., An Introduction to the History of Structural Mechanics, Part II: Vaulted Structures and Elastic Systems, Springer-Verlag, NY, 1991) or codes of practice (ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME, New York) originally developed in the 19th century (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and

  10. Foundations of risk analysis a knowledge and decision-oriented perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Aven

    2004-01-01

    Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis - expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support d

  11. DNA adducts and cancer risk in prospective studies: a pooled analysis and a meta-analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veglia, Fabrizio; Loft, Steffen; Matullo, Giuseppe;

    2008-01-01

    Bulky DNA adducts are biomarkers of exposure to aromatic compounds and of the ability of the individual to metabolically activate carcinogens and to repair DNA damage. Their ability to predict cancer onset is uncertain. We have performed a pooled analysis of three prospective studies on cancer risk...... in which bulky DNA adducts have been measured in blood samples collected from healthy subjects (N = 1947; average follow-up 51-137 months). In addition, we have performed a meta-analysis by identifying all articles on the same subject published up to the end of 2006, including case-control studies....... In the pooled analysis, a weakly statistically significant increase in the risk of lung cancer was apparent (14% per unit standard deviation change in adduct levels, 95% confidence interval 1-28%; using the weighted mean difference method, 0.15 SD, units higher adducts in cases than in controls...

  12. Model-based risk analysis of coupled process steps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerberg, Karin; Broberg-Hansen, Ernst; Sejergaard, Lars; Nilsson, Bernt

    2013-09-01

    A section of a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process involving the enzymatic coupling of a polymer to a therapeutic protein was characterized with regards to the process parameter sensitivity and design space. To minimize the formation of unwanted by-products in the enzymatic reaction, the substrate was added in small amounts and unreacted protein was separated using size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) and recycled to the reactor. The quality of the final recovered product was thus a result of the conditions in both the reactor and the SEC, and a design space had to be established for both processes together. This was achieved by developing mechanistic models of the reaction and SEC steps, establishing the causal links between process conditions and product quality. Model analysis was used to complement the qualitative risk assessment, and design space and critical process parameters were identified. The simulation results gave an experimental plan focusing on the "worst-case regions" in terms of product quality and yield. In this way, the experiments could be used to verify both the suggested process and the model results. This work demonstrates the necessary steps of model-assisted process analysis, from model development through experimental verification.

  13. Study on risk analysis of supply chain enterprises

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wu Xiaohui; Zhong Xiaobing; Song Shiji; Wu Cheng

    2006-01-01

    The sources of supply chain enterprise risk from different aspects including material flow, information flow, cash flow and partner relationship is analyzed. Measures for risk reduction have also been summarized from the aspects of risk sharing, information sharing, change of inventory control mode, and supply chain flexibility. Finally, problems in current research on supply chain risk management are pointed out and a discussion on future research trend is presented.

  14. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general proc...

  15. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group] [and others

    2012-09-15

    There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

  16. What Defines Us as Professionals in the Field of Risk Analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-08-11

    In a recent issue of Risk Analysis, the then-President of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), Pamela Williams, has some interesting reflections about the risk analysis field. She states that the ability and desire to tackle difficult problems using a risk analytical approach is what uniquely defines us as professionals in the field of risk analysis. The point of departure for her discussion is interviews with the plenary speakers of the 2014 SRA Annual Meeting, who addressed two divisive topics: hydraulic fracking and marijuana use. She points to several themes that invite contributions from the field of risk analysis, including: Has the full spectrum of potential risks and benefits been identified and weighted, and what are the risk tradeoffs or countervailing risks? Inspired by Williams's reflections, and by analyzing the issues raised in the interviews, this article seeks to clarify what our field is really providing. A main conclusion of the article is that it is essential to acknowledge that professionals in the field of risk analysis merely support the tackling of such problems, and that their genuine competence-that which distinguishes them from other professionals-lies in the risk analytical approach itself.

  17. ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT RISK IN CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

    OpenAIRE

    Kinga Kądziołka

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the article was to evaluate the risks of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Particular attention was paid to the risk of investment on the Polish exchanges: Bitcurex, BitBay, BitMarket.pl and LocalBitcoins. To evaluate the risk there was used VaR measure. There were compared the risk of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency and the risk of investing in the selected "traditional" currencies. There was also paid attention to the effect of day of the week on the Bitcoin’s exchanges. T...

  18. Prospective Analysis of Risk for Hypothyroidism after Hemithyroidectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgilijus Beisa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To evaluate risk factors and to develop a simple scoring system to grade the risk of postoperative hypothyroidism (PH. Methods. In a controlled prospective study, 109 patients, who underwent hemithyroidectomy for a benign thyroid disease, were followed up for 12 months. The relation between clinical data and PH was analyzed for significance. A risk scoring system based on significant risk factors and clinical implications was developed. Results. The significant risk factors of PH were higher TSH (thyroid-stimulating hormone level and lower ratio of the remaining thyroid weight to the patient’s weight (derived weight index. Based on the log of risk factor, preoperative TSH level greater than 1.4 mU/L was assigned 2 points; 1 point was for 0.8–1.4 mU/L. The derived weight index lower than 0.8 g/kg was assigned 1 point. A risk scoring system was calculated by summing the scores. The incidences of PH were 7.3%, 30.4%, and 69.2% according to the risk scores of 0-1, 2, and 3. Conclusion. Risk factors for PH are higher preoperative TSH level and lower derived weight index. Our developed risk scoring system is a valid and reliable tool to identify patients who are at risk for PH before surgery.

  19. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory.

  20. ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT RISK IN CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kinga Kądziołka

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article was to evaluate the risks of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Particular attention was paid to the risk of investment on the Polish exchanges: Bitcurex, BitBay, BitMarket.pl and LocalBitcoins. To evaluate the risk there was used VaR measure. There were compared the risk of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency and the risk of investing in the selected "traditional" currencies. There was also paid attention to the effect of day of the week on the Bitcoin’s exchanges. The investment in cryptocurrency was characterized by higher risk than investing in “traditional” currencies. The Polish Bitcoin exchange LocalBitcoins was characterized by the highest risk and highest average daily rate of return.

  1. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  2. [Risk communication in analysis of occupational health risk for industrial workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barg, A O; Lebedeva-Nesevrya, N A

    2015-01-01

    The article covers problems of risk communication system function on industrial enterprise. Sociologic study in machinery construction enterprise of Perm area helped to consider main procedures of informing on occupational risk for health of workers exposed to occupational hazards, to describe features and mechanisms of risk communication, to specify its model. The authors proved that main obstacles for efficient system of occupational risks communication are insufficiently thorough legal basis, low corporative social responsibility of the enterprise and low social value of health for workers. This article was prepared with the support of the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation (Project No. 14-16-59011).

  3. A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

    2005-01-01

    Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

  4. Graduate Education in Risk Analysis for Food, Agriculture, and Veterinary Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Ana-Paula; Wolt, Jeffrey D.

    2010-01-01

    The notion of risk in relation to food and food production has heightened the need to educate students to effectively deal with risk in relation to decision making from a science-based perspective. Curricula and related materials were developed and adopted to support graduate learning opportunities in risk analysis and decision making as applied…

  5. RISK DISCLOSURE ANALYSIS IN THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ANNUAL REPORT USING FUZZY-SET QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Carmona

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the necessary and sufficient conditions of good Corporate Governance practices for high risk disclosure by firms in their Corporate Governance Annual Report. Additionally, we explore whether those recipes have changed during the financial crisis. With a sample of 271 Spanish listed companies, we applied fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to a database of financial and non-financial data. We report that Board of Directors independence, size, level of activity and gender diversity, CEO duality, Audit Committee independence, being audited by the Big Four auditing firms and the presence of institutional investors are associated with high risk disclosure. The conditions included in almost every combination are the presence of institutional investors and being audited by the Big Four. We found similar combinations for 2006 and 2012, while the analysis for 2009 showed the lowest number of causal configurations.

  6. Elusive Critical Elements of Transformative Risk Assessment Practice and Interpretation: Is Alternatives Analysis the Next Step?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Royce A

    2015-11-01

    This article argues that "game-changing" approaches to risk analysis must focus on "democratizing" risk analysis in the same way that information technologies have democratized access to, and production of, knowledge. This argument is motivated by the author's reading of Goble and Bier's analysis, "Risk Assessment Can Be a Game-Changing Information Technology-But Too Often It Isn't" (Risk Analysis, 2013; 33: 1942-1951), in which living risk assessments are shown to be "game changing" in probabilistic risk analysis. In this author's opinion, Goble and Bier's article focuses on living risk assessment's potential for transforming risk analysis from the perspective of risk professionals-yet, the game-changing nature of information technologies has typically achieved a much broader reach. Specifically, information technologies change who has access to, and who can produce, information. From this perspective, the author argues that risk assessment is not a game-changing technology in the same way as the printing press or the Internet because transformative information technologies reduce the cost of production of, and access to, privileged knowledge bases. The author argues that risk analysis does not reduce these costs. The author applies Goble and Bier's metaphor to the chemical risk analysis context, and in doing so proposes key features that transformative risk analysis technology should possess. The author also discusses the challenges and opportunities facing risk analysis in this context. These key features include: clarity in information structure and problem representation, economical information dissemination, increased transparency to nonspecialists, democratized manufacture and transmission of knowledge, and democratic ownership, control, and interpretation of knowledge. The chemical safety decision-making context illustrates the impact of changing the way information is produced and accessed in the risk context. Ultimately, the author concludes that although

  7. Advanced probabilistic risk analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-7

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Cogliati, Joshua [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN, under the support of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program [1], is advancing its capability to perform statistical analyses of stochastic dynamic systems. This is aligned with its mission to provide the tools needed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) path-lead [2] under the Department Of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability program [3]. In particular this task is focused on the synergetic development with the RELAP-7 [4] code to advance the state of the art on the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (NPP). The investigation of the probabilistic evolution of accident scenarios for a complex system such as a nuclear power plant is not a trivial challenge. The complexity of the system to be modeled leads to demanding computational requirements even to simulate one of the many possible evolutions of an accident scenario (tens of CPU/hour). At the same time, the probabilistic analysis requires thousands of runs to investigate outcomes characterized by low probability and severe consequence (tail problem). The milestone reported in June of 2013 [5] described the capability of RAVEN to implement complex control logic and provide an adequate support for the exploration of the probabilistic space using a Monte Carlo sampling strategy. Unfortunately the Monte Carlo approach is ineffective with a problem of this complexity. In the following year of development, the RAVEN code has been extended with more sophisticated sampling strategies (grids, Latin Hypercube, and adaptive sampling). This milestone report illustrates the effectiveness of those methodologies in performing the assessment of the probability of core damage following the onset of a Station Black Out (SBO) situation in a boiling water reactor (BWR). The first part of the report provides an overview of the available probabilistic analysis capabilities, ranging from the different types of distributions available, possible sampling

  8. Arctic climate change and oil spill risk analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    William B. Samuels; David E. Amstutz; Heather A. Crowley

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to:1) describe the effects of climate change in the Arctic and its impact on circulation,2) describe hindcast data used in the Ocean Energy Management,Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model,3)evaluate alternatives such as using forecast results in the OSRA model,and 4) recommend future studies.Effects of climate change on winds,sea ice,ocean circulation and river discharge in the Arctic and impacts on surface circulation can be evaluated only through a series of specially designed numerical experiments using highresolution coupled ice-ocean models to elucidate the sensitivity of the models to various parameterizations or forcings.The results of these experiments will suggest what mechanisms are most important in controlling model response and guide inferences on how OSRA may respond to different climate change scenarios.Climatological change in the Arctic could lead to drastic alterations of wind,sea ice cover and concentration,and surface current fields all of which would influence hypothetical oil spill trajectories.Because of the pace at which conditions are changing,BOEMRE needs to assess whether forecast ice/ocean model results might contain useful information for the purposes of calculating hypothetical oil spill trajectories.

  9. Distal wound complications following pedal bypass: analysis of risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robison, J G; Ross, J P; Brothers, T E; Elliott, B M

    1995-01-01

    Wound complications of the pedal incision continue to compromise successful limb salvage following aggressive revascularization. Significant distal wound disruption occurred in 14 of 142 (9.8%) patients undergoing pedal bypass with autogenous vein for limb salvage between 1986 and 1993. One hundred forty-two pedal bypass procedures were performed for rest pain in 66 patients and tissue necrosis in 76. Among the 86 men and 56 women, 76% were diabetic and 73% were black. All but eight patients had a history of diabetes and/or tobacco use. Eight wounds were successfully managed with maintenance of patent grafts from 5 to 57 months. Exposure of a patent graft precipitated amputation in three patients, as did graft occlusion in an additional patient. One graft was salvaged by revision to the peroneal artery and one was covered by a local bipedicled flap. Multiple regression analysis identified three factors associated with wound complications at the pedal incision site: diabetes mellitus (p = 0.03), age > 70 years (p = 0.03), and rest pain (p = 0.05). Ancillary techniques ("pie-crusting") to reduce skin tension resulted in no distal wound problems among 15 patients considered to be at greatest risk for wound breakdown. Attention to technique of distal graft tunneling, a wound closure that reduces tension, and control of swelling by avoiding dependency on and use of gentle elastic compression assume crucial importance in minimizing pedal wound complications following pedal bypass.

  10. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picone, Sara; Valstar, Johan; van Gaans, Pauline; Grotenhuis, Tim; Rijnaarts, Huub

    2012-05-01

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the vast majority of previous studies, this model accounts for vertical variation of soil water saturation and includes aerobic biodegradation. The attenuation factor (ratio between concentration in the crawl space and source concentration) and the characteristic time to approach maximum concentrations were calculated and compared for a variety of scenarios. These concepts allow an understanding of controlling mechanisms and aid in the identification of critical parameters to be collected for field situations. The relative distance of the source to the nearest gas-filled pores of the unsaturated zone is the most critical parameter because diffusive contaminant transport is significantly slower in water-filled pores than in gas-filled pores. Therefore, attenuation factors decrease and characteristic times increase with increasing relative distance of the contaminant dissolved source to the nearest gas diffusion front. Aerobic biodegradation may decrease the attenuation factor by up to three orders of magnitude. Moreover, the occurrence of water table oscillations is of importance. Dynamic processes leading to a retreating water table increase the attenuation factor by two orders of magnitude because of the enhanced gas phase diffusion.

  11. Sanitary risk analysis for farm workers exposed to environmental pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Pascuzzi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In Italy, a large number of agricultural areas are contaminated by organic and inorganic polluting substances. In such areas, the agricultural operators come into contact with the environmental contaminants through inhalation and dermic contact with dusts and vapour, and this exposure can potentially alter the biological equilibrium with consequent poisonings and/or work-related illness. The aim of this paper is to apply a methodological procedure for the numerical evaluation of the health risk for agricultural employees operating in open fields or inside greenhouses located in areas contaminated with organic pollutants. This procedure is in response to the lack of calculation models concerning these types of environment and agricultural activities. As a case study, this methodology has been applied to an agricultural area of southern Italy characterised by the presence of pollutants. The results underline that in this area there is a smaller concentration of pollutants in open field cultivations than inside greenhouses owing to a phenomenon of dispersion into the atmosphere. This numeric analysis will later be verified by measurements carried out in situ in order to evaluate the real situation on the ground.

  12. Risk analysis of tyramine concentration in food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doudová, L.; Buňka, F.; Michálek, J.; Sedlačík, M.; Buňková, L.

    2013-10-01

    The contribution is focused on risk analysis in food microbiology. This paper evaluates the effect of selected factors on tyramine production in bacterial strains of Lactococcus genus which were assigned as tyramine producers. Tyramine is a biogenic amine sythesized from an amino acid called tyrosine. It can be found in certain foodstuffs (often in cheese), and can cause a pseudo-response in sensitive individuals. The above-mentioned bacteria are commonly used in the biotechnological process of cheese production as starter cultures. The levels of factors were chosen with respect to the conditions which can occur in this technological process. To describe and compare tyramine production in chosen microorganisms, generalized regression models were applied. Tyramine production was modelled by Gompertz curves according to the selected factors (the lactose concentration of 0-1% w/v, NaCl 0-2% w/v and aero/anaerobiosis) for 3 different types of bacterial cultivation. Moreover, estimates of model parameters were calculated and tested; multiple comparisons were discussed as well. The aim of this paper is to find a combination of factors leading to a similar tyramine production level.

  13. Comparative Analysis of Risk, Return and Diversification of Mutual Fund

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rais Ahmad

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mutual Funds have become a widely popular and effective way for investors to participate in financial markets in an easy, low-cost fashion, while muting risk characteristics by spreading the investment across different types of securities, also known as diversification. It can play a central role in an individual's investment strategy. With the plethora of schemes available in the Indian markets, an investors needs to evaluate and consider various factors before making an investment decision. The present investigation is aimed to examine the performance of safest investment instrument in the security market in the eyes of investors. Five mutual fund large cap scheme have been selected for this purpose. The examination is achieved by assessing various financial tests like Sharpe Ratio, Standard Deviation, Alpha, and Beta. Furthermore, in-depth analysis also has been done by considering return over the period of last five years on various basis, expenses ratio, corpus-size etc. The data has been taken from various websites of mutual fund schemes and from www.valueresearch.com. The study will be helpful for the researchers and financial analysts to analyze various securities or funds while selecting the best investment alternative out of the galaxy of investment alternatives.

  14. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José L.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing the number and locations of exposed people is a crucial step in landslide risk management and emergency planning. The available population statistical data frequently have insufficient detail for an accurate assessment of potentially exposed people to hazardous events, mainly when they occur at the local scale, such as with landslides. The present study aims to apply dasymetric cartography to improving population spatial resolution and to assess the potentially exposed population. An additional objective is to compare the results with those obtained with a more common approach that uses, as spatial units, basic census units, which are the best spatial data disaggregation and detailed information available for regional studies in Portugal. Considering the Portuguese census data and a layer of residential building footprint, which was used as ancillary information, the number of exposed inhabitants differs significantly according to the approach used. When the census unit approach is used, considering the three highest landslide susceptible classes, the number of exposed inhabitants is in general overestimated. Despite the associated uncertainties of a general cost-benefit analysis, the presented methodology seems to be a reliable approach for gaining a first approximation of a more detailed estimation of exposed people. The approach based on dasymetric cartography allows the spatial resolution of population over large areas to be increased and enables the use of detailed landslide susceptibility maps, which are valuable for improving the exposed population assessment.

  15. Framework for risk analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whelan, G.; Buck, J.W.; Castleton, K.J.; Hoopes, B.L.; Pelton, M.A.; McDonald, J.P.; Gelston, G.M.; Taira, R.Y. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1998-05-01

    The objectives of this workshop are to (1) provide the NRC staff and the public with an overview of currently available Federally-Sponsored dose models appropriate for decommissioning assessments and (2) discuss NRC staff-developed questions related to model selection criteria with the final rule on ``Radiological Criteria for License Termination`` (62 FR 39058). For over 40 years, medium specific models have been and will continue to be developed in an effort to understand and predict environmental phenomena, including fluid-flow patterns, contaminant migration and fate, human or wildlife exposures, impacts from specific toxicants to specific species and their organs, cost-benefit analyses, impacts from remediation alternatives, etc. For nearly 40 years, medium-specific models have been combined for either sequential or concurrent assessments. The evolution of multiple-media assessment tools has followed a logic progression. To allow a suite of users the flexibility and versatility to construct, combine, and couple attributes that meet their specific needs without unnecessarily burdening the user with extraneous capabilities, the development of a computer-based methodology to implement a Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) was begun in 1994. FRAMES represents a platform which links elements together and yet does not represent the models that are linked to or within it; therefore, changes to elements that are linked to or within FRAMES do not change the framework.

  16. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, D.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  17. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk

    KAUST Repository

    Picone, Sara

    2012-03-30

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the vast majority of previous studies, this model accounts for vertical variation of soil water saturation and includes aerobic biodegradation. The attenuation factor (ratio between concentration in the crawl space and source concentration) and the characteristic time to approach maximum concentrations were calculated and compared for a variety of scenarios. These concepts allow an understanding of controlling mechanisms and aid in the identification of critical parameters to be collected for field situations. The relative distance of the source to the nearest gas-filled pores of the unsaturated zone is the most critical parameter because diffusive contaminant transport is significantly slower in water-filled pores than in gas-filled pores. Therefore, attenuation factors decrease and characteristic times increase with increasing relative distance of the contaminant dissolved source to the nearest gas diffusion front. Aerobic biodegradation may decrease the attenuation factor by up to three orders of magnitude. Moreover, the occurrence of water table oscillations is of importance. Dynamic processes leading to a retreating water table increase the attenuation factor by two orders of magnitude because of the enhanced gas phase diffusion. © 2012 SETAC.

  18. Risk assessment for benefits analysis: framework for analysis of a thyroid-disrupting chemical.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrad, Daniel A; Baetcke, Karl; Dockins, Chris; Griffiths, Charles W; Hill, Richard N; Murphy, Patricia A; Owens, Nicole; Simon, Nathalie B; Teuschler, Linda K

    Benefit-cost analysis is of growing importance in developing policies to reduce exposures to environmental contaminants. To quantify health benefits of reduced exposures, economists generally rely on dose-response relationships estimated by risk assessors. Further, to be useful for benefits analysis, the endpoints that are quantified must be expressed as changes in incidence of illnesses or symptoms that are readily understood by and perceptible to the layperson. For most noncancer health effects and for nonlinear carcinogens, risk assessments generally do not provide the dose-response functions necessary for economic benefits analysis. This article presents the framework for a case study that addresses these issues through a combination of toxicology, epidemiology, statistics, and economics. The case study assesses a chemical that disrupts proper functioning of the thyroid gland, and considers the benefits of reducing exposures in terms of both noncancer health effects (hypothyroidism) and thyroid cancers. The effects are presumed to be due to a mode of action involving interference with thyroid-pituitary functioning that would lead to nonlinear dose response. The framework integrates data from animal testing, statistical modeling, human data from the medical and epidemiological literature, and economic methodologies and valuation studies. This interdisciplinary collaboration differs from the more typical approach in which risk assessments and economic analyses are prepared independently of one another. This framework illustrates particular approaches that may be useful for expanded quantification of adverse health effects, and demonstrates the potential of such interdisciplinary approaches. Detailed implementation of the case study framework will be presented in future publications.

  19. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007; Metode for miljoerettet risikoanalyse (MIRA) revisjon 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-04-15

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  20. Uncertainty analysis of EUSES: Improving risk management through probabilistic risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Rikken MGJ; Poel P van der; ECO

    1997-01-01

    In risk assessment of new and existing substances, it is current practice to characterise risk using a deterministic quotient of the exposure concentration, or the dose, and a no-effect level. Feelings of uncertainty are tackled by introducing worst-case assumptions in the methodology. Since this pr

  1. Risk analysis of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies in animals: state-of-the-art

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; de Koeijer, Aline; Hagenaars, Thomas J.

    2008-01-01

    of the legislation regarding the control and eradication of BSE. Much uncertainty regarding important input parameters remains a major constraint in risk assessment. Uncertainty is one of the most critical and most difficult aspects of communication of risks about Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs......). Nevertheless, the decline in the BSE epidemic in the UK and most European countries demonstrates that management has been, for the most part, sucessful. Literature pertaining to the three inter-related facets of risk analysis: risk assessment, risk management and risk communication of TSE's of animal origin...

  2. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  3. Reincarceration Risk Among Men with Mental Illnesses Leaving Prison: A Risk Environment Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrenger, Stacey L; Draine, Jeffrey; Angell, Beth; Herman, Daniel

    2017-02-15

    Reentry interventions for persons with mental illness leaving prison have consisted primarily of linkage to mental health services and have produced mixed results on psychiatric and criminal recidivism. These interventions primarily focus on intra-individual risk factors. However, social and environmental factors may also increase risk of reincarceration by constraining choices and pro-social opportunities for community reintegration upon release from prison. In order to add to the knowledge base on understanding reincarceration risk for men with mental illnesses leaving prison, we examined interpersonal and environmental factors that exposed men to heightened risk for reincarceration. As part of a larger study examining the effectiveness of Critical Time Intervention for men with mental illness leaving prison, in-depth interviews were conducted with 28 men within 6 months of release from prison. Policies and practices at local and state levels, community conditions, and interpersonal obligation and conflict were identified as increasing risk for reincarceration.

  4. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  5. Risk Analysis and Consumer Protection in B2C Transactions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jian-zheng; SHI Qi-liang; Gary Millar; Ruhul A. Sarker

    2005-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that the perceived lack of security is a major obstacle to the wider acceptance of e-commerce. To overcome this barrier, businesses need to implement comprehensive consumer protection systems that protect consumers during every stage of the purchasing process. This paper used the consumer behaviour model as the basis for analysing risks in Bussiness-to-Consumer (B2C) transactions. Four categories of risks were identified: information, agreement, payment and delivery risk. By combining these risk categories with the three dimensions of management, technology and legislation, a comprehensive B2C consumer protection framework is developed.

  6. SAFETY ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BRIDGES HEALTH MONITORING WITH MONTE CARLO METHODS

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    With the increasing requirements of building safety in the past few decades, healthy monitoring and risk assessment of structures is of more and more importance. Especially since traffic loads are heavier, risk Assessment for bridges are essential. In this paper we take advantage of Monte Carlo Methods to analysis the safety of bridge and monitoring the destructive risk. One main goal of health monitoring is to reduce the risk of unexpected damage of artificial objects

  7. [Discussion on the building of post market risk analysis method in hemodialysis device].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Honglei; Peng, Xiaolong; Tian, Xiaojun; Wang, Peilian

    2014-09-01

    This paper discussed the building of post market risk analysis method in hemodialysis device from the point of government supervision. By proposing practical research methods for post market risk identification and estimation on hemodialysis device, providing technical guidance for government to put risk management of hemodialysis device into effect, and offering reference for enterprises to carry out post market risk evaluation on their products as well.

  8. Metabolic Syndrome Is Associated with Increased Breast Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ruchi Bhandari; Kelley, George A; Hartley, Tara A.; Rockett, Ian R. H.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Although individual metabolic risk factors are reported to be associated with breast cancer risk, controversy surrounds risk of breast cancer from metabolic syndrome (MS). We report the first systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between MS and breast cancer risk in all adult females. Methods. Studies were retrieved by searching four electronic reference databases [PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Web of Science, and ProQu...

  9. Breast Image Analysis for Risk Assessment, Detection, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giger, M.L.; Karssemeijer, N.; Schnabel, J.A.

    2013-01-01

    The role of breast image analysis in radiologists' interpretation tasks in cancer risk assessment, detection, diagnosis, and treatment continues to expand. Breast image analysis methods include segmentation, feature extraction techniques, classifier design, biomechanical modeling, image registration

  10. Spar paa farten

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2007-01-01

    The paper describes an Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) project in Denmark based on Pay As You Drive principles, which means that the ISA equipment both gives a warning when the driver is speeding but also gives penalty points which reduce a promised bonus at 30 % on the insurance rate. In the ......The paper describes an Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) project in Denmark based on Pay As You Drive principles, which means that the ISA equipment both gives a warning when the driver is speeding but also gives penalty points which reduce a promised bonus at 30 % on the insurance rate....... In the project we have developed an On Board Unit (OBU) for ISA with mobile phone (GPRS) connection to a web server, and with an advanced map matching program, and air based map update function. We have developed a speed map for 22,000 km roads, including a web based maintaining tool. The project will proceed...

  11. P2P Lending Risk Contagion Analysis Based on a Complex Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes two major channels of P2P lending risk contagion in China—direct risk contagion between platforms and indirect risk contagion with other financial organizations as the contagion medium. Based on this analysis, the current study constructs a complex network model of P2P lending risk contagion in China and performs dynamics analogue simulations in order to analyze general characteristics of direct risk contagion among China’s online P2P lending platforms. The assumed conditions are that other financial organizations act as the contagion medium, with variations in the risk contagion characteristics set under the condition of significant information asymmetry in Internet lending. It is indicated that, compared to direct risk contagion among platforms, both financial organizations acting as the contagion medium and information asymmetry magnify the effect of risk contagion. It is also found that the superposition of media effects and information asymmetry is more likely to magnify the risk contagion effect.

  12. Risk and reliability analysis theory and applications : in honor of Prof. Armen Der Kiureghian

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

  13. 75 FR 34422 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Mango Fruit From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-17

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation of fresh mango fruit... are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES: We...

  14. 78 FR 24155 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Interstate Movement of Sapote Fruit From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-24

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Interstate... we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the interstate... movement of sapote fruit from Puerto Rico. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public...

  15. 75 FR 78207 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Rambutan Fruit...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-15

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation into the continental... importation of fresh rambutan fruit from Malaysia and Vietnam. We are making the pest risk analysis...

  16. Meta-analysis of studies using statins as a reducer for primary liver cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Guo-Chao; Liu, Yan; Ye, Yuan-Yuan; Hao, Fa-Bao; Wang, Kang; Gong, Jian-Ping

    2016-01-01

    A protective effect of statins on primary liver cancer (PLC) risk has been suggested. However, issues about the dose–response relationship, the protective effect of individual statins, and PLC risk reduction among at-risk populations remain unsolved. Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for studies providing the risk ratio (RR) on statins and PLC risk. Summary RRs were calculated using a random-effects model. Twenty-five studies were identified. Stain use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of PLC (RR = 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.53–0.69). The summary RR for every additional 50 cumulative defined daily doses per year was 0.87 (95% CI = 0.83–0.91). Evidence of a non-linear dose–response relationship between statins and PLC risk was found (Pnon-linearity < 0.01). All individual statins significantly reduced PLC risk, and the risk reduction was more evident with rosuvastatin. The inverse association between statins and PLC risk remained among populations with common risk factors. Subgroup analyses revealed more significant reduction in PLC risk by statins in high- versus non-high-risk populations (Pinteraction = 0.02). Overall, these findings add to our understanding of the association between statins and PLC risk. Whether statin use is causally associated with a reduced risk of PLC should be further studied. PMID:27198922

  17. The risk analysis during production process of an innovative baby carriage with a bike function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nowiński Emil

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the risk assesment of damages occurance in production stage of a babycarriage with a bike function. The analysis of risk is done by using the FMEA – Failure Made and Effect Analysis that is used in aviation and automotive industry. This way of innovative product assessment allows to evaluate the risk of defects and indicate the priorities of quality for key parts as well as the device.

  18. NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.

  19. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  20. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bell

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative

  1. Debris flow and landslide hazard mapping and risk analysis in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xilin LIU; Chengjun YU; Peijun SHI; Weihua FANG

    2012-01-01

    This paper assesses the hazardousness,vulnerability and risk of debris flow and landslide in China and compiles maps with a scale of 1∶6000000,based on Geographical Information System (GIS) technology,hazard regionalization map,socioeconomic data from 2000.Integrated hazardousness of debris flow and landslide is equivalent to the sum of debris flow hazardousness and landslide hazardousness.Vulnerability is assessed by employing a simplified assessment model.Risk is calculated by the following formula:Risk =Hazardousness × Vulnerability.The analysis results of assessment of hazardousness,vulnerability and risk show that there are extremely high risk regions of 104 km2,high risk regions of 283008 km2,moderate risk regions of 3161815 km2,low risk regions of 3299604km2,and extremely low risk regions of 2681709 km2.Exploitation activities should be prohibited in extremely high risk and high risk regions and restricted in moderate risk regions.The present study on risk analysis of debris flow and landslide not only sheds new light on the future work in this direction but also provides a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation policy making.

  2. Import risk analysis: A case study of white shrimp in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Supamattaya, K.

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available As the culture industry of black tiger shrimp in Thailand has encountered several problems causing unsuccessful shrimp culture over decades, a new non-indigenous marine species, i.e. Pacific white shrimp (Penaeus vannamei was imported into Thailand as an alternation. However, imported white shrimp may carry some infectious agents which pose serious threats on aquatic species native to Thailand. Therefore, in the present study the import risk analysis (IRA was conducted to identify any hazard and estimate the risk presented by importation of white shrimp. The process involves the risk analysis steps of hazard identification and characterization, risk assessment and risk management. The risks associated with individual diseases and disease agents of white shrimp have been evaluated. Risk assessment conducted using risk evaluation matrix indicated high risk of Taura syndrome virus (TSV, White spot syndrome virus (WSSV and Infectious hypodermal and haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV in imported white shrimp. The iterative process of risk management leads to a set of acceptable measures or strategies for each identified hazard for which the unrestricted risk is considered higher than appropriate level of protection. These measures or strategies will reduce risk to a level that is considered acceptable. Where measures or strategies that reduce the risk associated with a particular hazard to an acceptable level cannot be identified, permission to import the relevant commodity will be denied. The measures implemented in the control of white shrimp imports constitute quarantine and health certificate issued by exporting countries.

  3. Hepatitis C virus infection increases risk of developing end-stage renal disease using competing risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Jung Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD and hepatitis C virus (HCV infection are closely linked and both increase patient mortality. The association of HCV and risk of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD has not been analyzed with competing risk model. METHOD: We enrolled a prospective cohort of 4,185 patients (mean age, 62 years; 41% female registered in the CKD integrated care program at two affiliated hospitals of Kaohsiung Medical University in Taiwan between November 11, 2002 and May 31, 2009. With competing risk model, we analyzed the association of HCV infection, defined by seropositive of anti-HCV antibody, and hepatitis B virus (HBV infection, defined by seropositive of HBV surface antigen, with the risk of entering ESRD. RESULTS: The prevalence of HCV infection was 7.6% and it increased with the CKD stages (trend test, P<0.001, while the prevalence of HBV infection was 7.4% and no specific trend among CKD stages (tend test, P = 0.1. During the 9,101 person-year follow-up period, there were 446 death and 1,205 patients entering ESRD. After adjusting death as the competing risk, the estimated 5-year cumulative incidence rate of ESRD among patients with and without HCV infection were 52.6% and 38.4%, respectively (modified log-rank, P<0.001. Multivariable analysis showed that HCV infection, but not HBV infection, had higher risk of developing ESRD compared with cases without infection (HCV, HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.07-1.62; HBV, HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.89-1.35. Subgroup analyses showed consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: With death-adjusted competing risk analysis, HCV infection is associated with an increased risk of developing ESRD in CKD cohort.

  4. Collaborative Strategies for Sustainable EU Flood Risk Management: FOSS and Geospatial Tools—Challenges and Opportunities for Operative Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Albano

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to mitigate the impact of natural hazards on European economies and societies, improved risk assessment, and management needs to be pursued. With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in European flood management policy, flood analysis models have become an important part of flood risk management (FRM. In this context, free and open-source (FOSS geospatial models provide better and more complete information to stakeholders regarding their compliance with the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC for effective and collaborative FRM. A geospatial model is an essential tool to address the European challenge for comprehensive and sustainable FRM because it allows for the use of integrated social and economic quantitative risk outcomes in a spatio-temporal domain. Moreover, a FOSS model can support governance processes using an interactive, transparent and collaborative approach, providing a meaningful experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge through a process of guided discovery regarding flood risk management. This article aims to organize the available knowledge and characteristics of the methods available to give operational recommendations and principles that can support authorities, local entities, and the stakeholders involved in decision-making with regard to flood risk management in their compliance with the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC.

  5. Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

    2016-01-01

    Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

  6. Climate risk management in Central Asian agriculture. A situation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawlowski, Ira

    2012-03-15

    The region of Central Asia, and in particularly the agricultural sector, is extremely vulnerable to climate change risks. The countries have started to develop adaptation strategies and climate risk management strategies, most of them described in the National Communications on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These and other efforts are presented and commented in this paper.

  7. Quantitative risk analysis of urban flooding in lowland areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2010-01-01

    Urban flood risk analyses suffer from a lack of quantitative historical data on flooding incidents. Data collection takes place on an ad hoc basis and is usually restricted to severe events. The resulting data deficiency renders quantitative assessment of urban flood risks uncertain. The study repor

  8. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  9. Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, B.C.; Ermoliev, Y.; Ermolieva, T.

    2005-10-05

    We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- (Value at Risk) and CVaR-type risk (Conditional Value at Risk) measures. Combined with explicit introduction of 'safety' constraints, it creates a 'hit-or-miss' type decision making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties.

  10. CFD analysis of dense gas dispersion in indoor environment for risk assessment and risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, M; Jayanti, S; Swaminathan, T

    2012-03-30

    Environmental risks are inherent in the operation of any complex chemical process industry. The indoor release of hazardous chemicals that are denser than air is a topic of special concern, since dense clouds tend to persist at ground level or human breath level which leads to a magnification of their harmful potential. In the present work, we propose a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based model for indoor risk assessment considering accidental release of a sustained, small, undetected leak of a dense toxic gas (chlorine) in an industrial indoor environment. Results from simulations show that the denser chlorine gas spreads like a liquid and flows all along the floor. At the same time, its concentration at a point away from the ground level increases slowly, thus showing that both stratification and dilution effects are present as the dense gas spreads. The implications of this spreading pattern from a risk assessment and risk mitigation point of view are discussed.

  11. In silico analysis of nanomaterials hazard and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Yoram; Rallo, Robert; Liu, Rong; Liu, Haoyang Haven

    2013-03-19

    false positive relative to false negative predictions and the reliability of toxicity data. To establish the environmental impact of ENMs identified as toxic, researchers will need to estimate the potential level of environmental exposure concentration of ENMs in the various media such as air, water, soil, and vegetation. When environmental monitoring data are not available, models of ENMs fate and transport (at various levels of complexity) serve as alternative approaches for estimating exposure concentrations. Risk management decisions regarding the manufacturing, use, and environmental regulations of ENMs would clearly benefit from both the assessment of potential ENMs exposure concentrations and suitable toxicity metrics. The decision process should consider the totality of available information: quantitative and qualitative data and the analysis of nanomaterials toxicity, and fate and transport behavior in the environment. Effective decision-making to address the potential impacts of nanomaterials will require considerations of the relevant environmental, ecological, technological, economic, and sociopolitical factors affecting the complete lifecycle of nanomaterials, while accounting for data and modeling uncertainties. Accordingly, researchers will need to establish standardized data management and analysis tools through nanoinformatics as a basis for the development of rational decision tools.

  12. Obesity and Risk of Thyroid Cancer: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis of 21 Observational Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jie; Huang, Min; Wang, Li; Ye, Wei; Tong, Yan; Wang, Hanmin

    2015-01-01

    Background Several studies have evaluated the association between obesity and thyroid cancer risk. However, the results remain uncertain. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between obesity and thyroid cancer risk. Material/Methods Published literature from PubMed, EMBASE, Springer Link, Ovid, Chinese Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Chinese Biology Medicine (CBM) were retrieved before 10 August 2014. We included all studies that reported adjusted risk ratios (RRs), hazard ratios (HRs) or odds ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of thyroid cancer risk. Results Thirty-two studies (n=12 620 676) were included in this meta-analysis. Obesity was associated with a significantly increased risk of thyroid cancer (adjusted RR=1.33; 95% CI, 1.24–1.42; I2=25%). In the subgroup analysis by study type, increased risk of thyroid cancer was found in cohort studies and case-control studies. In subgroup analysis by sex, both obese men and women were at significantly greater risk of thyroid cancer than non-obese subjects. When stratified by ethnicity, significantly elevated risk was observed in Caucasians and in Asians. In the age subgroup analysis, both young and old populations showed increased thyroid cancer risk. Subgroup analysis on smoking status showed that increased thyroid cancer risks were found in smokers and in non-smokers. In the histology subgroup analyses, increased risks of papillary thyroid cancer, follicular thyroid cancer, and anaplastic thyroid cancer were observed. However, obesity was associated with decreased risk of medullary thyroid cancer. Conclusions Our results indicate that obesity is associated with an increased thyroid cancer risk, except medullary thyroid cancer. PMID:25612155

  13. Terrorism risks and cost-benefit analysis of aviation security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G; Mueller, John

    2013-05-01

    We evaluate, for the U.S. case, the costs and benefits of three security measures designed to reduce the likelihood of a direct replication of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To do so, we assess risk reduction, losses, and security costs in the context of the full set of security layers. The three measures evaluated are installed physical secondary barriers (IPSB) to restrict access to the hardened cockpit door during door transitions, the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) Program. In the process, we examine an alternate policy measure: doubling the budget of the FFDO program to $44 million per year, installing IPSBs in all U.S. aircraft at a cost of $13.5 million per year, and reducing funding for FAMS by 75% to $300 million per year. A break-even cost-benefit analysis then finds the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack required for the benefit of each security measures to equal its cost. We find that the IPSB is costeffective if the annual attack probability of an otherwise successful attack exceeds 0.5% or one attack every 200 years. The FFDO program is costeffective if the annual attack probability exceeds 2%. On the other hand, more than two otherwise successful attacks per year are required for FAMS to be costeffective. A policy that includes IPSBs, an increased budget for FFDOs, and a reduced budget for FAMS may be a viable policy alternative, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars per year with consequences for security that are, at most, negligible.

  14. Risk of second primary cancer following prostate cancer radiotherapy: DVH analysis using the competitive risk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takam, R.; Bezak, E.; Yeoh, E. E.

    2009-02-01

    This study aimed to estimate the risk of developing second primary cancer (SPC) corresponding to various radiation treatment techniques for prostate cancer. Estimation of SPC was done by analysing differential dose-volume histograms (DDVH) of normal tissues such as rectum, bladder and urethra with the competitive risk model. Differential DVHs were obtained from treatment planning systems for external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), low-dose-rate (LDR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy techniques. The average risk of developing SPC was no greater than 0.6% for all treatment techniques but was lower with either LDR or HDR brachytherapy alone compared with any EBRT technique. For LDR and HDR brachytherapy alone, the risk of SPC for the rectum was 2.0 × 10-4% and 8.3 × 10-5% respectively compared with 0.2% for EBRT using five-field 3D-CRT to a total dose of 74 Gy. Overall, the risk of developing SPC for urethra following all radiation treatment techniques was very low compared with the rectum and bladder. Treatment plans which deliver equivalent doses of around 3-5 Gy to normal tissues were associated with higher risks of development of SPC.

  15. Risk of second primary cancer following prostate cancer radiotherapy: DVH analysis using the competitive risk model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takam, R; Bezak, E [School of Chemistry and Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide (Australia); Yeoh, E E [School of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide (Australia)], E-mail: Rungdham.Takam@health.sa.gov.au

    2009-02-07

    This study aimed to estimate the risk of developing second primary cancer (SPC) corresponding to various radiation treatment techniques for prostate cancer. Estimation of SPC was done by analysing differential dose-volume histograms (DDVH) of normal tissues such as rectum, bladder and urethra with the competitive risk model. Differential DVHs were obtained from treatment planning systems for external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), low-dose-rate (LDR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy techniques. The average risk of developing SPC was no greater than 0.6% for all treatment techniques but was lower with either LDR or HDR brachytherapy alone compared with any EBRT technique. For LDR and HDR brachytherapy alone, the risk of SPC for the rectum was 2.0 x 10{sup -4}% and 8.3 x 10{sup -5}% respectively compared with 0.2% for EBRT using five-field 3D-CRT to a total dose of 74 Gy. Overall, the risk of developing SPC for urethra following all radiation treatment techniques was very low compared with the rectum and bladder. Treatment plans which deliver equivalent doses of around 3-5 Gy to normal tissues were associated with higher risks of development of SPC.

  16. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MohammadRahim Ramezanian

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios..

  17. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Rahim Ramezanian

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios.

  18. An Information Diffusion Technique for Fire Risk Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘静; 黄崇福

    2004-01-01

    There are many kinds of fires occurring under different conditions. For a specific site, it is difficult to collect sufficient data for analyzing the fire risk. In this paper, we suggest an information diffusion technique to analyze fire risk with a small sample. The information distribution method is applied to change crisp observations into fuzzy sets, and then to effectively construct a fuzzy relationship between fire and surroundings. With the data of Shanghai in winter, we show how to use the technique to analyze the fire risk.

  19. Research on Application of Enhanced Neural Networks in Software Risk Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhenbang Rong; Juhua Chen; Mei Liu; Yong Hu

    2006-01-01

    This paper puts forward a risk analysis model for software projects using enranced neural networks. The data for analysis are acquired through questionnaires from real software projects. To solve the multicollinearity in software risks, the method of principal components analysis is adopted in the model to enhance network stability. To solve uncertainty of the neural networks structure and the uncertainty of the initial weights, genetic algorithms is employed. The experimental result reveals that the precision of software risk analysis can be improved by using the erhanced neural networks model.

  20. The Measurement and Analysis Risk Factors Dependence Correlation in Software Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjie, Ding; Hong, Hou; Kegang, Hao; Xiaoqun, Guo

    The complexity of software process leads to that there are all kinds of fuzzy correlations among different process management risk factors, such as dependence correlation among software risk factors. It’s difficult to analyze risk data directly by mathematic tools because that risk data is uncertain and rough. Based on the rough set theory and the data in risk management library, the risk factors dependence correlation analysis system(RFDCAS) is established, and the dependence coefficient and its calculate formula on the base of equivalence class is suggested. The RFDCAS unveils the dependence correlation among risk factors contribute to risk management, and can help discover the problems in the software process improvement management.

  1. Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much uncertainty in root node is produced by each risk, a new index, epistemic importance, is defined. Numerical examples show that the proposed methods could provide a lot of useful information. With the information, effective approaches could be found to control and avoid these sensitive risks, thus keep logistics financial business working more reliable. The proposed method also gives a quantitative measure of risk levels in logistics financial business, which provides guidance for the selection of financing solutions.

  2. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    . The methodology is applied to the disaggregation of portfolios of buildings in two communes in Switzerland. The relevance of disaggregation uncertainty to natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with a simple flood risk assessment example. A second challenge - fragility and vulnerability modelling of all...... in the present thesis. First, design and optimisation of a hierarchical flood protection system generally entails decisions about structures at different spatial scales, which, in turn, may require risk assessment at different spatial resolutions and levels of detail. Consistent risk modelling at different...... spatial scales may therefore require up- and downscaling of data and models under due consideration of uncertainties and dependencies. In this thesis, a methodology is proposed for spatially disaggregating an aggregated building portfolio considering disaggregation uncertainty and spatial correlation...

  3. A Multivariate Analysis of Risk Factors for Diabetic Nephropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Shannon

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses multivariate methods on actual data from 267 patients with noninsulin- dependent (Type 2 diabetes mellitus in order to see how the various risk factors can affect the progression of diabetic nephropathy. The approach succeeds in identifying preliminary risk factors such as smoking for males, although the females had higher fasting blood glucose at diagnosis. Not surprisingly, hypertension is common among patients of both sexes and it has an association with proteinuria in female patients in the sample.

  4. Issues in qualitative and quantitative risk analysis for developmental toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, C A; Gaylor, D W

    1988-03-01

    The qualitative and quantitative evaluation of risk in developmental toxicology has been discussed in several recent publications. A number of issues still are to be resolved in this area. The qualitative evaluation and interpretation of end points in developmental toxicology depends on an understanding of the biological events leading to the end points observed, the relationships among end points, and their relationship to dose and to maternal toxicity. The interpretation of these end points is also affected by the statistical power of the experiments used for detecting the various end points observed. The quantitative risk assessment attempts to estimate human risk for developmental toxicity as a function of dose. The current approach is to apply safety (uncertainty) factors to the no observed effect level (NOEL). An alternative presented and discussed here is to model the experimental data and apply a safety factor to an estimated risk level to achieve an "acceptable" level of risk. In cases where the dose-response curves upward, this approach provides a conservative estimate of risk. This procedure does not preclude the existence of a threshold dose. More research is needed to develop appropriate dose-response models that can provide better estimates for low-dose extrapolation of developmental effects.

  5. Risk analysis of flood control operation mode with forecast information based on a combination of risk sources

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation mode with forecast information (FCOMFI) is an important basis for the design and implementation of FCOMFI. Most of current researches on this issue are incomplete as they only consider flood forecast errors, but not many other uncertainties in reservoir routing. In order to obtain an integrated risk rate of FCOMFI, this paper analyzes four uncertainties, i.e. hydrological, hydraulic, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty, as well as their probability distributions. On the basis of this analysis, an integrated risk analysis model of FCOMFI for reservoirs and its lower reach is established involving the above-mentioned four uncertainties, and this model is solved by Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. The simulation results, with Baiguishan reservoir as the example, show that the integrated risk rates of FCOMFI are less than those of the flood control operation mode without forecast information. This article presents the highest limited water level that satisfies flood control safety requirements of the lower reach.

  6. Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.

  7. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  8. UML-based Requirements Analysis on Risk Pre-control System in Coal Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Hui

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Combining with the present situation of risk management in domestic coal enterprises,the overall flow of risk pre-control system of coal enterprise is designed on the basis of the ISO/FDIS31000 “Risk management—Principles and guidelines” released by the International Standards Organization and risk precontrol management system of safety in coal mine, UML(unified modeling language is used as a tool to establish the model of system requirements analysis, risk management subsystem is taken as an example to elaborate the modeling process of system analysis, the merit of ensuring the accuracy and consistency of system analysis when using UML as the tool of object-oriented system requirements analysis is verified.  

  9. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  10. Geospatial Analysis of Urban Land Use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic Fever Risk - a Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izzah, L. N.; Majid, Z.; Ariff, M. A. M.; Fook, C. K.

    2016-09-01

    Human modification of the natural environment continues to create habitats in which vectors of a wide variety of human and animal pathogens (such as Plasmodium, Aedes aegypti, Arenavirus etc.) thrive if unabated with an enormous potential to negatively affect public health. Typical examples of these modifications include impoundments, dams, irrigation systems, landfills and so on that provide enabled environment for the transmission of Hemorrhagic fever such as malaria, dengue, avian flu, Lassa fever etc. Furthermore, contemporary urban dwelling pattern appears to be associated with the prevalence of Hemorrhagic diseases in recent years. These observations are not peculiar to the developing world, as urban expansion also contributes significantly to mosquito and other vectors habitats. This habitats offer breeding ground to some vector virus populations. The key to disease control is developing an understanding of the contribution of human landscape modification to vector-borne pathogen transmission and how a balance may be achieved between human development, public health, and responsible urban land use. A comprehensive review of urban land use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic fever risk has been conducted in this paper. The study found that most of the available literatures dwell more on the impact of urban land use on malaria and dengue fevers; however, studies are yet to be found discussing the implications of urban land use on the risk of Ebola, Lassa and other non-mosquito borne VHFs. A relational model for investigating the influence of urban land use change pattern on the risk of Hemorrhagic fever has been proposed in this study.

  11. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-08-05

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation.

  12. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  13. Consumer perceptions of best practice in food risk communication and management: implications for risk analysis policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cope, S.F.; Frewer, L.J.; Houghton, J.R.; Rowe, G.; Fischer, A.R.H.; Jonge, de J.

    2010-01-01

    As a consequence of recent food safety incidents, consumer trust in European food safety management has diminished. A risk governance framework that formally institutes stakeholder (including consumer) consultation and dialogue through a transparent and accountable process has been proposed, with du

  14. Small theories and large risks--is risk analysis relevant for epistemology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirković, Milan M

    2012-11-01

    Ought we to take seriously large risks predicted by "exotic" or improbable theories? We routinely assess risks on the basis or either common sense, or some developed theoretical framework based on the best available scientific explanations. Recently, there has been a substantial increase of interest in the low-probability "failure modes" of well-established theories, which can involve global catastrophic risks. However, here I wish to discuss a partially antithetical situation: alternative, low-probability ("small") scientific theories predicting catastrophic outcomes with large probability. I argue that there is an important methodological issue (determining what counts as the best available explanation in cases where the theories involved describe possibilities of extremely destructive global catastrophes), which has been neglected thus far. There is no simple answer to the correct method for dealing with high-probability high-stakes risks following from low-probability theories that still cannot be rejected outright, and much further work is required in this area. I further argue that cases like these are more numerous than usually assumed, for reasons including cognitive biases, sociological issues in science and the media image of science. If that is indeed so, it might lead to a greater weight of these cases in areas such as moral deliberation and policy making.

  15. Fracture Risk Analysis in Postmenopausal Women with the Current Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salih Gultekin

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: This study was conducted to assess the risk of fracture in postmenopausal women using dual x-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density (DEXA-BMD as a reference method and FRAX as a new clinical risk assessment tool. Material and Method: 168 postmenopausal women (> 50 years evaluating with DEXA-BMD and FRAX methods were included in the study. Femoral BMD (F-BMD, femoral T-score (F-Ts, lumbar spine BMD (L-BMD and lumbar spine T-score (L-Ts values of the patients were calculated. Fracture risk assessments were carried out using T-score values and FRAX 10-year hip fracture (HF and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF risk ratios. Data were analyzed statistically. Results: According to the results of F-Ts and L-Ts, 44/168 (26.2% and 65/168 (38.7% of patients had osteoporosis as compatible with high fracture risk. In osteoporotic patients, mean values for F-Ts L-Ts, F-BMD and L-BMD were -2.8 ± 0.4, -3.2 ± 0.5, 0.530 ± 0.049 and 0.682 ± 0.066, respectively. There were found to be high MOF risk in 16/168 (9.5% and high HF risk in 51/168 (30.4% of patients according to FRAX. Positive correlations were determined between F-Ts and L-Ts (moderate; rho = 0.424, p <0.05 and between HF and MOF (strong; rho = 0.958, p <0001. There were strong negative correlations among HF and MOF with F-Ts (respectively, rho = -0.897 and rho = -0.844, p <0.001 and moderate negative correlations among HF and MOF with L-Ts (respectively, rho = -0.535 and rho = - 0.567, p <0.05. Discussion: In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, risk assessment by the FRAX besides the DXA-BMD measurements can be useful for not to be missed of patients with high risk of fracture.

  16. Reduced cancer risk in vegetarians: an analysis of recent reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Joy Lanou

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Amy Joy Lanou1, Barbara Svenson21Department of Health and Wellness, 2Ramsey Library, University of North Carolina Asheville, Asheville, NC, USAAbstract: This report reviews current evidence regarding the relationship between vegetarian eating patterns and cancer risk. Although plant-based diets including vegetarian and vegan diets are generally considered to be cancer protective, very few studies have directly addressed this question. Most large prospective observational studies show that vegetarian diets are at least modestly cancer protective (10%–12% reduction in overall cancer risk although results for specific cancers are less clear. No long-term randomized clinical trials have been conducted to address this relationship. However, a broad body of evidence links specific plant foods such as fruits and vegetables, plant constituents such as fiber, antioxidants and other phytochemicals, and achieving and maintaining a healthy weight to reduced risk of cancer diagnosis and recurrence. Also, research links the consumption of meat, especially red and processed meats, to increased risk of several types of cancer. Vegetarian and vegan diets increase beneficial plant foods and plant constituents, eliminate the intake of red and processed meat, and aid in achieving and maintaining a healthy weight. The direct and indirect evidence taken together suggests that vegetarian diets are a useful strategy for reducing risk of cancer.Keywords: diet, vegan, prevention

  17. 76 FR 5779 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Litchi From the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-02

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation of... sufficient to mitigate the risks of introducing or disseminating plant pests or noxious weeds via...

  18. Risk factors for cerebrovascular disease mortality among the elderly in Beijing: a competing risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Tang

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of combined lifestyle factors and physical conditions with cerebrovascular diseases (CBVD mortality, after accounting for competing risk events, including death from cardiovascular diseases, cancers and other diseases. METHODS: Data on 2010 subjects aged over 55 years were finally analyzed using competing risk models. All the subjects were interviewed by the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA, in China, between 1 January 1992 and 30 August 2009. RESULTS: Elderly females were at a lower risk of death from CBVD than elderly males (HR = 0.639, 95% CI = 0.457-0.895. Increasing age (HR = 1.543, 95% CI = 1.013-2.349, poor self-rated health (HR = 1.652, 95% CI = 1.198-2.277, hypertension (HR = 2.201, 95% CI = 1.524-3.178 and overweight (HR = 1.473, 95% CI = 1.013-2.142 or obesity (HR = 1.711, 95% CI = 1.1754-2.490 was associated with higher CBVD mortality risk. Normal cognition function (HR = 0.650, 95% CI = 0.434-0.973 and living in urban (HR = 0.456, 95% CI = 0.286-0.727 was associated with lower CBVD mortality risk. Gray's test also confirmed the cumulative incidence (CIF of CBVD was lower in the 'married' group than those without spouse, and the mortality was lowest in the 'nutrition sufficient' group among the 'frequent consumption of meat group' and the 'medial type group' (P value<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: CBVD mortality was associated with gender, age, blood pressure, residence, BMI, cognitive function, nutrition and the result of self-rated health assessment in the elderly in Beijing, China.

  19. Risk analysis. From prospect to exploration portfolio and back

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaufmann, G.M. [Sloan School of Management, MIT, Cambridge (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Improper accounting for covariation of uncertain quantities that characterize prospect, play, basin and corporate exploration portfolio uncertainties can lead to seriously distorted appraisals of exploration and investment risk. The roles played by covariability up the ladder of aggregation from prospect to exploration portfolio are examined. The distinction between systematic risk induced by the dependence of all exploration opportunities on price variation (all boats rising and falling on the tide of prices) and non-systematic or diversifiable risk (geologic and engineering) is highlighted in the context of deciding how to allocate exploration effort among competing exploration opportunities. Valuation of projects that can be flexibly managed over time cannot be correctly valued using probabilistic net present value methods that employ a fixed discount rate. Modern asset value methods derived from the theory of stock options allows correct accounting for flexible timing of exploration and development decisions. An example shows how to employ these methods. 20 refs

  20. The Impact of Consumer Phase Models in Microbial Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten; Christensen, Bjarke Bak

    2011-01-01

    In quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), the consumer phase model (CPM) describes the part of the food chain between purchase of the food product at retail and exposure. Construction of a CPM is complicated by the large variation in consumer food handling practices and a limited......, where all the CPMs were analyzed using one single input distribution of concentrations at retail, and the same dose-response relationship. It was found that, between CPMs, there may be a considerable difference in the estimated probability of illness per serving. However, the estimated relative risk...... reductions are less different for scenarios modeling the implementation of control measures. For control measures affecting the Campylobacter  prevalence, the relative risk is proportional irrespective of the CPM used. However, for control measures affecting the concentration the CPMs show some difference...

  1. A Software Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Belief Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Hu; Juhua Chen; Mei Liu; Yang Yun; Junbiao Tang

    2006-01-01

    The uncertainty during the period of software project development often brings huge risks to contractors and clients. Ifwe can find an effective method to predict the cost and quality of software projects based on facts like the project character and two-side cooperating capability at the beginning of the project, we can reduce the risk.Bayesian Belief Network(BBN) is a good tool for analyzing uncertain consequences, but it is difficult to produce precise network structure and conditional probability table. In this paper, we built up network structure by Delphi method for conditional probability table learning, and learn update probability table and nodes' confidence levels continuously according to the application cases, which made the evaluation network have learning abilities, and evaluate the software development risk of organization more accurately. This paper also introduces EM algorithm, which will enhance the ability to produce hidden nodes caused by variant software projects.

  2. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems: An Analysis by Gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex; Tolchard, Barry; Nower, Lia

    2016-06-01

    Differences in problem gambling rates between males and females suggest that associated risk factors vary by gender. Previous combined analyses of male and female gambling may have obscured these distinctions. This study aimed to develop separate risk factor models for gambling problems for males and for females, and identify gender-based similarities and differences. It analysed data from the largest prevalence study in Victoria Australia (N = 15,000). Analyses determined factors differentiating non-problem from at-risk gamblers separately for women and men, then compared genders using interaction terms. Separate multivariate analyses determined significant results when controlling for all others. Variables included demographics, gambling behaviour, gambling motivations, money management, and mental and physical health. Significant predictors of at-risk status amongst female gamblers included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on private betting, electronic gaming machines (EGMs), scratch tickets or bingo, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. For males, risk factors included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, low education, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on EGMs, table games, races, sports or lotteries, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. High risk groups requiring appropriate interventions comprise young adults, especially males; middle-aged female EGM gamblers; non-English speaking populations; frequent EGM, table games, race and sports gamblers; and gamblers motivated by escape.

  3. Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease: analysis of previously proposed risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Harlak

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease is a source of one of the most common surgical problems among young adults. While male gender, obesity, occupations requiring sitting, deep natal clefts, excessive body hair, poor body hygiene and excessive sweating are described as the main risk factors for this disease, most of these need to be verified with a clinical trial. The present study aimed to evaluate the value and effect of these factors on pilonidal disease. METHOD: Previously proposed main risk factors were evaluated in a prospective case control study that included 587 patients with pilonidal disease and 2,780 healthy control patients. RESULTS: Stiffness of body hair, number of baths and time spent seated per day were the three most predictive risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios were 9.23, 6.33 and 4.03, respectively (p<0.001. With an adjusted odds ratio of 1.3 (p<.001, body mass index was another risk factor. Family history was not statistically different between the groups and there was no specific occupation associated with the disease. CONCLUSIONS: Hairy people who sit down for more than six hours a day and those who take a bath two or less times per week are at a 219-fold increased risk for sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease than those without these risk factors. For people with a great deal of hair, there is a greater need for them to clean their intergluteal sulcus. People who engage in work that requires sitting in a seat for long periods of time should choose more comfortable seats and should also try to stand whenever possible.

  4. Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease: analysis of previously proposed risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlak, Ali; Mentes, Oner; Kilic, Selim; Coskun, Kagan; Duman, Kazim; Yilmaz, Fahri

    2010-01-01

    PURPOSE Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease is a source of one of the most common surgical problems among young adults. While male gender, obesity, occupations requiring sitting, deep natal clefts, excessive body hair, poor body hygiene and excessive sweating are described as the main risk factors for this disease, most of these need to be verified with a clinical trial. The present study aimed to evaluate the value and effect of these factors on pilonidal disease. METHOD Previously proposed main risk factors were evaluated in a prospective case control study that included 587 patients with pilonidal disease and 2,780 healthy control patients. RESULTS Stiffness of body hair, number of baths and time spent seated per day were the three most predictive risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios were 9.23, 6.33 and 4.03, respectively (p<0.001). With an adjusted odds ratio of 1.3 (p<.001), body mass index was another risk factor. Family history was not statistically different between the groups and there was no specific occupation associated with the disease. CONCLUSIONS Hairy people who sit down for more than six hours a day and those who take a bath two or less times per week are at a 219-fold increased risk for sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease than those without these risk factors. For people with a great deal of hair, there is a greater need for them to clean their intergluteal sulcus. People who engage in work that requires sitting in a seat for long periods of time should choose more comfortable seats and should also try to stand whenever possible. PMID:20186294

  5. Risk factors for radiation-induced hypothyroidism: A Literature-Based Meta-Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogelius, Ivan R; Bentzen, Søren; Petersen, Peter M

    2011-01-01

    of radiation dose-response data were identified for a meta-analysis of the dose-response curve. RESULTS: Female gender (OR = 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-1.9; P ... = .006) were associated with a higher risk of HT. Caucasians were at higher risk of HT than African Americans (OR = 4.8; 95% CI, 2.8-8.5; P dose-response relation with a 50......% risk of HT at a dose of 45 Gy but with considerable variation in the dose response between studies. Chemotherapy and age were not associated with risk of HT in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical risk factors for HT were identified. The risk of HT increases with increasing radiation dose...

  6. Responsibility Modeling for the Sociotechnical Risk Analysis of Coalitions of Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Greenwood, David

    2011-01-01

    Society is challenging systems engineers by demanding ever more complex and integrated systems. With the rise of cloud computing and systems-of-systems (including cyber-physical systems) we are entering an era where mission critical services and applications will be dependent upon 'coalitions-of-systems'. Coalitions-of-systems (CoS) are a class of system similar to systems-of-systems but they differ in that they interact to further overlapping self-interests rather than an overarching mission. Assessing the sociotechnical risks associated with CoS is an open research question of societal importance as existing risk analysis techniques typically focus on the technical aspects of systems and ignore risks associated with coalition partners reneging on responsibilities or leaving the coalition. We demonstrate that a responsibility modeling based risk analysis approach enables the identification of sociotechnical risks associated with CoS. The approach identifies hazards and associated risks that may arise when re...

  7. Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Lauri K.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Duncan, Matthew G.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.

  8. Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

    2012-01-01

    In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

  9. Risk and sustainability analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, A.; Carcassi, M.

    2016-01-01

    -based fuels. Therefore, future hydrogen supply and distribution chains will have to address several objectives. Such a complexity is a challenge for risk assessment and risk management of these chains because of the increasing interactions. Improved methods are needed to assess the supply chain as a whole......Building a network of hydrogen refuelling stations is essential to develop the hydrogen economy within transport. Additional, hydrogen is regarded a likely key component to store and convert back excess electrical power to secure future energy supply and to improve the quality of biomass...

  10. Operational Risk Management; An analysis of FSA Final Notices

    OpenAIRE

    van den Aarssen, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    In the last two decades, financial markets have been highlighted by large-scale financial failures due to incompetence and fraud, such as Barings, Daiwa, Allied Irish Banks, UBS, Société Génerale, and more recently JP Morgan. While previous research has focussed on market and credit risk, and even if the focus was on operational risk it concentrates on the market reaction to operational losses, the current research addresses the root of the problem. The current research explores the final...

  11. Risk assessment of Kermanshah gas storage tanks by energy trace and barrier analysis (2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ghanbari Kakavandi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite the cost and millions loss of life due to industrial accidents, often are preventable through risk assessment methods and control measures. Objective: To assess the safety of gas storage tanks in Kermanshah oil refinery by Energy Trace and Barrier Analysis (ETBA. Methods: This case-descriptive study was conducted in gas storage tanks of Kermanshah oil refinery. Energy checklist was used for identification of energy types. Energy flows were tracked and then, management and administrative procedures, and personal protective equipment were considered as safeguard. Exposed and vulnerable targets are also specified. Preliminary levels of risks were determined by combination of severity and likelihood. After suggestion of corrective action for unacceptable risks, risk assessment took place again. Identified risks were expressed using descriptive statistics such as frequency and percentage. Findings: Overall, 74 risks and 121 dangerous energies were identified. Of these, 25 risks were unacceptable, 46 were low risk, and 3 were acceptable risk with revised. Frequency of risks related to electric power was 20, and followed by risk of displacement- pressure-volume, potential and chemical energies, with frequencies of 13, 12 and 9, respectively. Conclusion: Given the environmental and protection conditions of the tanks, in addition, the high percentage of some of the damaging risks in this industry, use of appropriate control measures to prevention the event of future disasters will be inevitable.

  12. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  13. Semi-Competing Risks Data Analysis: Accounting for Death as a Competing Risk When the Outcome of Interest Is Nonterminal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haneuse, Sebastien; Lee, Kyu Ha

    2016-05-01

    Hospital readmission is a key marker of quality of health care. Notwithstanding its widespread use, however, it remains controversial in part because statistical methods used to analyze readmission, primarily logistic regression and related models, may not appropriately account for patients who die before experiencing a readmission event within the time frame of interest. Toward resolving this, we describe and illustrate the semi-competing risks framework, which refers to the general setting where scientific interest lies with some nonterminal event (eg, readmission), the occurrence of which is subject to a terminal event (eg, death). Although several statistical analysis methods have been proposed for semi-competing risks data, we describe in detail the use of illness-death models primarily because of their relation to well-known methods for survival analysis and the availability of software. We also describe and consider in detail several existing approaches that could, in principle, be used to analyze semi-competing risks data, including composite end point and competing risks analyses. Throughout we illustrate the ideas and methods using data on N=49 763 Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized between 2011 and 2013 with a principle discharge diagnosis of heart failure.

  14. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction.

  15. A Western Dietary Pattern Increases Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Roberto Fabiani; Liliana Minelli; Gaia Bertarelli; Silvia Bacci

    2016-01-01

    Dietary patterns were recently applied to examine the relationship between eating habits and prostate cancer (PC) risk. While the associations between PC risk with the glycemic index and Mediterranean score have been reviewed, no meta-analysis is currently available on dietary patterns defined by “a posteriori” methods. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science) to identify studies reporting the relationship between dietary patterns and PC risk. Relevant dietary patterns wer...

  16. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  17. Fluvastatin and the Breast Cancer Risk:A Meta-analysis of Observational Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dong-Mei Liu; Jian Zhang; Wei Zhang; James Lu; Jian-Lun Han; Guang-Jun Hao; Sheng-Ming Ye

    2016-01-01

    Multiple studies have investigated the associations between fluvatatin and the risk of breast cancer (BC), but their results were conflicting. A meta-analysis of observational studies published regarding this subject was conducted in the present study. It aims to estimate the associations between fluvastatin use and the risk of BC. Pubmed and chinese national knowledge infrastructure (CNKI) database was searched up to January, 2015 to identify eligible observational studies, and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess quality of the studies. Pooled relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated (fixed effect model: Mantel-Haenszel). Heterogeneities were evaluated before the calculation. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted. In total, four studies contributed to the analysis. Overall, fluvastatin use negatively correlated with BC risk (RR=0.74, 95%CI=0.58, 0.95). In conclusion, fluvastatin use may reduce the risk of BC, but more research is needed to confirm this finding.

  18. Proximity systems: Analysis of health risks; Varchi magneticianalysis of health risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbaro, V.; Bartolini, P.; Donato, A. [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Ingegneria Biomedica; Militello, C.; Polichetti, A.; Vecchia, P. [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Fisica

    1996-03-01

    The results of a study on the magnetic fields generated by proximity systems for the controlled access of personnel are reported. Besides data from experimental measurements, the results are presented of theoretical calculations of induced currents inside the body. Health risks are also evaluated based on a comparison with the most advanced international standards. Finally, possible effects of interference with implanted pacemakers are analyzed in detail.

  19. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Susanne Börner; Juan Carlos Torrico Albino; Luz María Nieto Caraveo; Ana Cristina Cubillas Tejeda

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believ...

  20. Responding to consumer needs: Risk-benefit analysis of fortification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, H. van den

    1999-01-01

    In spite of an on average adequate dietary nutrient intake and status in most European countries, for some micronutrients (e.g. folate, vitamin D, B2, B6, B12 (in elderly), iron and iodine) subgroups have been identified which may be at risk and may benefit from a higher intake, especially elderly a

  1. Risk Analysis of the Bond Portfolio Price Sensitivity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LiZhou; JinlinLi

    2004-01-01

    The paper described three methods of scaling the bond portfolio price. They were duration, convexity and time value. From the principle of No-arbitrage, there was one and only one relationship of duration, convexity and time value. It chose three corporation bonds of China and analyzed the risk of two investment strategies.

  2. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  3. Analysis of genetics and risk factors of Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panpalli Ates, M; Karaman, Y; Guntekin, S; Ergun, M A

    2016-06-14

    Alzheimer's Disease is the leading neurodegenerative cause of dementia. The pathogenesis is not clearly understood yet, is believed to be the complex interaction between genetic and environmental factors. Consequently vascular risk factors and Apolipoprotein E genotyping are increasingly gaining importance. This study aimed at assessing the relationships between Alzheimer's Disease and Apolipoprotein E phenotype and vascular risk factors. Patients diagnosed with "possible Alzheimer's Disease" in the Gazi University, Department of Neurology, were included in the study and age-matched volunteer patients who attended the polyclinic were included as a control group. In this study, the risk factors including low education level, smoking, hyperlipidemia, higher serum total cholesterol levels, and hyperhomocysteinemia were found to be statistically significantly more common in the Alzheimer's Disease group in comparison to the Control Group, while all Apolipoprotein E ε4/ε4 genotypes were found in the Alzheimer's Disease group. The presence of the Apolipoprotein E ε4 allele is believed to increase vascular risk factors as well as to affect Alzheimer's Disease directly. The biological indicators which are used in identifying the patients' genes will be probably used in the treatment plan of the patients in the future.

  4. Enterprise Architecture-Based Risk and Security Modelling and Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, Henk; Quartel, Dick A.C.; Kordy, Barbara; Ekstedt, Mathias; Seong Kim, Deng

    2016-01-01

    The growing complexity of organizations and the increasing number of sophisticated cyber attacks asks for a systematic and integral approach to Enterprise Risk and Security Management (ERSM). As enterprise architecture offers the necessary integral perspective, including the business and IT aspects

  5. Barrett's esophagus and risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma: A retrospective analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Wei Wang

    2015-12-01

    Conclusion: Our study found that BE-associated EAC mostly occurred in older men. In the group with BE-associated EAC, the majority of patients were discovered due to alarm symptoms, at the same time as esophageal adenocarcinoma had already developed. Further prospective study is needed to stratify the risk of disease progression in BE patients.

  6. Sensitivity analysis of a two-dimensional quantitative microbiological risk assessment: keeping variability and uncertainty separated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busschaert, Pieter; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Uyttendaele, Mieke; Van Impe, Jan F

    2011-08-01

    The aim of quantitative microbiological risk assessment is to estimate the risk of illness caused by the presence of a pathogen in a food type, and to study the impact of interventions. Because of inherent variability and uncertainty, risk assessments are generally conducted stochastically, and if possible it is advised to characterize variability separately from uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis allows to indicate to which of the input variables the outcome of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment is most sensitive. Although a number of methods exist to apply sensitivity analysis to a risk assessment with probabilistic input variables (such as contamination, storage temperature, storage duration, etc.), it is challenging to perform sensitivity analysis in the case where a risk assessment includes a separate characterization of variability and uncertainty of input variables. A procedure is proposed that focuses on the relation between risk estimates obtained by Monte Carlo simulation and the location of pseudo-randomly sampled input variables within the uncertainty and variability distributions. Within this procedure, two methods are used-that is, an ANOVA-like model and Sobol sensitivity indices-to obtain and compare the impact of variability and of uncertainty of all input variables, and of model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. As a case study, this methodology is applied to a risk assessment to estimate the risk of contracting listeriosis due to consumption of deli meats.

  7. Development and prototype application of an oil spill risk analysis in a coastal zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces the development of a methodology for performance of oil spill risk analysis in coastal zones through a prototype application. The main objective of the research effort is to develop the basis for a tool that can assess risks due to the occurrence of an oil spill event aiming at

  8. Identifying At-Risk Students in General Chemistry via Cluster Analysis of Affective Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Julia Y. K.; Bauer, Christopher F.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify academically at-risk students in first-semester general chemistry using affective characteristics via cluster analysis. Through the clustering of six preselected affective variables, three distinct affective groups were identified: low (at-risk), medium, and high. Students in the low affective group…

  9. Job Strain and the risk of stroke: An individual-participant data meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fransson, E.I.; Nyberg, S.T.; Heikkilä, K.; Alfredsson, L.; Bjorner, J.B.; Borritz, M.; Burr, H.; Dragano, N.; Geuskens, G.A.; Goldberg, M.; Hamer, M.; Hooftman, W.E.; Houtman, I.L.; Joensuu, M.; Jokela, M.; Knutsson, A.; Koskenvuo, M.; Koskinen, A.; Kumari, M.; Leineweber, C.; Lunau, T.; Madsen, I.E.H.; Hanson, L.L.M.; Nielsen, M.L.; Nordin, M.; Oksanen, T.; Pentti, J.; Pejtersen, J.H.; Rugulies, R.; Salo, P.; Shipley, M.J.; Steptoe, A.; Suominen, S.B.; Theorell, T.; Toppinen-Tanner, S.; Vahtera, J.; Virtanen, M.; Väänänen, A.; Westerholm, P.J.M.; Westerlund, H.; Zins, M.; Britton, A.; Brunner, E.J.; Singh-Manoux, A.; Batty, G.D.; Kivimäki, M.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Psychosocial stress at work has been proposed to be a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, its role as a risk factor for stroke is uncertain. METHODS: We conducted an individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 196 380 males and females from 14 European cohort st

  10. Risk analysis on the import of seed mussels from Norway into the Wadden Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijsman, J.W.M.; Tamis, J.E.; Kaag, N.H.B.M.; Karman, C.C.; Foekema, E.M.; Smaal, A.C.

    2007-01-01

    This report is the result of a risk analysis on the introduction of exotic nonCindigenous species with the import of rope culture mussels from Norway into the Wadden Sea. Based on available literature data and expert judgement, the target species are identified and the risks of these species are ass

  11. Does risk management contribute to IT project success? A meta-analysis of empirical evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bakker, K.F.C.; Boonstra, A.; Wortmann, J.C.

    2010-01-01

    The question whether risk management contributes to IT project success is considered relevant by people from both academic and practitioners' communities already for a long time. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the empirical evidence that either supports or opposes the claim that risk managem

  12. Towards internationally acceptable standards for food additives and contaminants based on the use of risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huggett, A.; Petersen, B.J.; Walker, R.; Fisher, C.E.; Notermans, S.H.W.; Rombouts, F.M.; Abbott, P.; Debackere, M.; Hathaway, S.C.; Hecker, E.F.F.; Knaap, A.G.A.; Kuznesof, P.M.; Meyland, I.; Moy, G.; Narbonne, J.-F.; Paakkanen, J.; Smith, M.R.; Tennant, D.; Wagstaffe, P.; Wargo, J.; Würtzen, G.

    1998-01-01

    Internationally acceptable norms need to incorporate sound science and consistent risk management principles in an open and transparent manner, as set out in the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the SPS Agreement). The process of risk analysis provides a procedure

  13. Modelling and mapping spread in pest risk analysis: a generic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kehlenbeck, H.; Robinet, C.; Werf, van der W.; Kriticos, D.; Reynaud, P.; Baker, R.

    2012-01-01

    Assessing the likelihood and magnitude of spread is one of the cornerstones of pest risk analysis (PRA), and is usually based on qualitative expert judgment. This paper proposes a suite of simple ecological models to support risk assessors who also wish to estimate the rate and extent of spread, e.g

  14. The SAFE FOODS Risk Analysis Framework suitable for GMOs? A case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, H.A.; Davies, H.V.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the current EU regulatory framework for risk analysis of genetically modified (GM) crop cultivation and market introduction of derived food/feed. Furthermore the risk assessment strategies for GM crops and derived food/feed as designed by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA

  15. A root cause analysis approach to risk assessment of a pipeline network for Kuwait Oil Company

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, Ray J.; Alfano, Tony D. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Waheed, Farrukh [Kuwait Oil Company, Ahmadi (Kuwait); Komulainen, Tiina [Kongsberg Oil and Gas Technologies, Sandvika (Norway)

    2009-07-01

    A large scale risk assessment was performed by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) for the entire Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) pipeline network. This risk assessment was unique in that it incorporated the assessment of all major sources of process related risk faced by KOC and included root cause management system related risks in addition to technical risks related to more immediate causes. The assessment was conducted across the entire pipeline network with the scope divided into three major categories:1. Integrity Management 2. Operations 3. Management Systems Aspects of integrity management were ranked and prioritized using a custom algorithm based on critical data sets. A detailed quantitative risk assessment was then used to further evaluate those issues deemed unacceptable, and finally a cost benefit analysis approach was used to compare and select improvement options. The operations assessment involved computer modeling of the entire pipeline network to assess for bottlenecks, surge and erosion analysis, and to identify opportunities within the network that could potentially lead to increased production. The management system assessment was performed by conducting a gap analysis on the existing system and by prioritizing those improvement actions that best aligned with KOC's strategic goals for pipelines. Using a broad and three-pronged approach to their overall risk assessment, KOC achieved a thorough, root cause analysis-based understanding of risks to their system as well as a detailed list of recommended remediation measures that were merged into a 5-year improvement plan. (author)

  16. Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides. An Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Coefficients Reported in Federal Guidance Report No. 13

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawel, David [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Leggett, Richard Wayne [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL; Nelson, Christopher [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

    2007-01-01

    Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.

  17. 78 FR 24691 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-26

    ..., and 211 RIN 0910-AG36 Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based... the proposed rule, ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive... rule entitled ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based...

  18. 78 FR 11611 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-19

    ..., and 211 RIN 0910-AG36 Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based... ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food... rule entitled ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based...

  19. 78 FR 69604 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-20

    ..., and 211 RIN 0910-AG36 Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based... 3646), entitled ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive... rule entitled ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based...

  20. Preliminary results of an oilspill risk analysis for the Bombay High Region

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.A.M.Q.; Gouveia, A.D.; Sitaraman, R.

    An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Bombay High, Maharashtra, India. The likely paths of oilslicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled...

  1. Dam safety risk analysis, assessment and management in the Duero River Basin (Spain)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ardiles, Liana; Moreno, Pedro; Jenaro, Esther [Duero River Authority, Valladolid, (Spain); Fleitz, Jurgen [OFITECO, Madrid, (Spain); Escuder, Ignacio [Universidad Politecnica Valencia, Valencia, (Spain)

    2010-07-01

    The Duero River Authority (DRA) integrated risk management into state of the art dam safety activities in Spain. An analysis was performed on the DRA system of 26 state-owned dams. A quantitative analysis on two pilot schemes (the Carrion and Pisuerga systems) was done. It included quantitative estimations of the probability of occurrence of different events, the identification of the potential failure modes, the probabilities of failure related to each event and the estimation of resulting consequences. A current risk analysis is being adopted as a tool for dam safety management of the whole portfolio of the DRA dams. The systematic framework developed by the DRA for integrating risk analysis and evaluation in overall dam safety management is focused on three activities. The development of risk models for 7 dam systems as a helpful tool for overall dam safety management is presented in this paper.

  2. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

  3. A Person-Centered Analysis of Risk Factors that Compromise Wellbeing in Emerging Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newcomb-Anjo, Sarah E; Barker, Erin T; Howard, Andrea L

    2016-11-08

    The transition to adulthood is a major life course transition that can pose risk to wellbeing. Research is needed to identify patterns of risk for compromised wellbeing, in order to best identify supports for individuals during this potentially vulnerable transition. The purpose of this study was to identify profiles of risk in an emerging adulthood sample, and to relate these profiles to mental health and subjective and academic wellbeing. Undergraduate emerging adults (N = 903, 82 % female), aged 18-25 years (M = 21.14, SD = 1.75), completed a series of questionnaires about risk factors, mental health, and academic variables. Results from a latent profile analysis identified four distinct risk profiles: Low Risk (76 %), Low Social Support Risk (4 %), Financial Risk (11 %), and Multiple Risk (8 %). The risk profiles were subsequently related to mental health and subjective and academic wellbeing outcomes, using a pseudo-class draws approach. Analyses indicated that the risk-pattern profiles differed in several ways across outcomes. Implications for targeted interventions are discussed.

  4. Comparing risk in conventional and organic dairy farming in the Netherlands: an empirical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berentsen, P B M; Kovacs, K; van Asseldonk, M A P M

    2012-07-01

    This study was undertaken to contribute to the understanding of why most dairy farmers do not convert to organic farming. Therefore, the objective of this research was to assess and compare risks for conventional and organic farming in the Netherlands with respect to gross margin and the underlying price and production variables. To investigate the risk factors a farm accountancy database was used containing panel data from both conventional and organic representative Dutch dairy farms (2001-2007). Variables with regard to price and production risk were identified using a gross margin analysis scheme. Price risk variables were milk price and concentrate price. The main production risk variables were milk yield per cow, roughage yield per hectare, and veterinary costs per cow. To assess risk, an error component implicit detrending method was applied and the resulting detrended standard deviations were compared between conventional and organic farms. Results indicate that the risk included in the gross margin per cow is significantly higher in organic farming. This is caused by both higher price and production risks. Price risks are significantly higher in organic farming for both milk price and concentrate price. With regard to production risk, only milk yield per cow poses a significantly higher risk in organic farming.

  5. A Univariate Analysis of Risk Factors for Diabetic Nephropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yee Hung Choy

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses actual data from 267 patients with non-insulin-dependent (Type 2 diabetes mellitus in order to see how the various risk factors can affect the progression of diabetic nephropathy. Examination of each independent variable individually can only provide a preliminary idea of how important each variable is by itself. The relative importance of all the variables has to be examined simultaneously by multivariate methods. The approach succeeds in identifying preliminary risk factors such as smoking for males, although the females had higher fasting blood glucose at diagnosis. Not surprisingly, hypertension is common among patients of both sexes and it has an association with proteinuria in female patients in the sample.

  6. Analysis of an Underground Structure Settlement Risk due to Tunneling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Ghodrat, Hadi; Firouzianbandpey, Sarah

    2010-01-01

    on studied geotechnical conditions of the region. In this paper, a method of risk level assessment for various types of structures, such as frame and masonry structures, and various types of foundation, such as continuous and isolated, is well defined and the risk level is classified. Moreover, the value......The tunnel of the Tabriz urban railway line 2 (TURL2), Iran, will pass through an underground commercial center on its way. Too little distance between the tunnel crown and the underground structure foundation will probably cause collapse or excessive settlement during the tunnel construction based...... in this section need a special monitoring system and consolidation measures before the passage of a tunnel boring machine....

  7. Seismic risk analysis of coastal area of Pakistan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shahid A. Khan; M.Ali Shah; M.Qaisar

    2003-01-01

    Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respectively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.

  8. Risk analysis of sulfites used as food additives in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian Bo; Zhang, Hong; Wang, Hua Li; Zhang, Ji Yue; Luo, Peng Jie; Zhu, Lei; Wang, Zhu Tian

    2014-02-01

    This study was to analyze the risk of sulfites in food consumed by the Chinese people and assess the health protection capability of maximum-permitted level (MPL) of sulfites in GB 2760-2011. Sulfites as food additives are overused or abused in many food categories. When the MPL in GB 2760-2011 was used as sulfites content in food, the intake of sulfites in most surveyed populations was lower than the acceptable daily intake (ADI). Excess intake of sulfites was found in all the surveyed groups when a high percentile of sulfites in food was in taken. Moreover, children aged 1-6 years are at a high risk to intake excess sulfites. The primary cause for the excess intake of sulfites in Chinese people is the overuse and abuse of sulfites by the food industry. The current MPL of sulfites in GB 2760-2011 protects the health of most populations.

  9. Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  10. Assessing desertification risk using system stability condition analysis

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a procedure for evaluating the desertification risk in threatened areas. The procedure is based on an eight-equation dynamic model of a generic human–resource system that can be applied to different desertification syndromes. For each application, interest focuses on finding all the possible long-term final states of the system and on defining the conditions that mark out sustainability and long-term desertification by means of unambiguous specific parameter relations. Th...

  11. Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, HyeongTaek [KHNP-Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important

  12. An Empirical Analysis on Credit Risk Models and its Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joocheol Kim

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study intends to focus on introducing credit default risk with widely used credit risk models in an effort to empirically test whether the models hold their validity, apply to financial institutions which usually are highly levered with various types of debts, and finally reinterpret the results in computing adequate collateral level in the over-the-counter derivatives market. By calculating the distance-to-default values using historical market data for South Korean banks and brokerage firms as suggested in Merton model and KMV’s EDF model, we find that the performance of the introduced models well reflect the credit quality of the sampled financial institutions. Moreover, we suggest that in addition to the given credit ratings of different financial institutions, their distance-to-default values can be utilized in determining the sufficient level of credit support. Our suggested “smoothened” collateral level allows both contractual parties to minimize their costs caused from provision of collateral without undertaking additional credit risk and achieve efficient collateral management.

  13. Quantitative risk analysis offshore-Human and organizational factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espen Skogdalen, Jon, E-mail: jon.espen.skogdalen@gmail.co [Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning, University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway); Vinnem, Jan Erik, E-mail: jev@preventor.n [Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning, University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

    2011-04-15

    Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) are one of the main tools for risk management within the Norwegian and UK oil and gas industry. Much criticism has been given to the limitations related to the QRA-models and that the QRAs do not include human and organizational factors (HOF-factors). Norway and UK offshore legislation and guidelines require that the HOF-factors are included in the QRAs. A study of 15 QRAs shows that the factors are to some extent included, and there are large differences between the QRAs. The QRAs are categorized into four levels according to the findings. Level 1 QRAs do not describe or comment on the HOF-factors at all. Relevant research projects have been conducted to fulfill the requirements of Level 3 analyses. At this level, there is a systematic collection of data related to HOF. The methods are systematic and documented, and the QRAs are adjusted. None of the QRAs fulfill the Level 4 requirements. Level 4 QRAs include the model and describe the HOF-factors as well as explain how the results should be followed up in the overall risk management. Safety audits by regulatory authorities are probably necessary to point out the direction for QRA and speed up the development.

  14. Ergonomic lumbar risk analysis of construction workers by NIOSH method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinara Caetano Pereira

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Work in construction has tasks directly connected with manual transport. One of the body segments suffering greater demand in works with these characteristics is the lumbar spine segment. The aim of this study was to analyze the level of risk of lumbar construction workers in the shipment of materials. The sample was composed of 74 construction workers. Were used as a research tool: the NIOSH method for lumbar risk verification expressed by weight limit recommended (WPR and the lifting Index (IL, Visual analogue scale (VAS for the evaluation of pain intensity, the e-1 Corlett.0 for the mapping of the pain and Borg to the subjective perception of the intensity of physical exertion. The present study identified the weight limit (WP of 8.707 for management activity of bags of cement for the load of 8.194 wheelbarrows used. These findings are 6 times under actual weights handled during the activities that revolve around 50 kg with the sacks and averaged 49.72 kg stands with mass. The dimensional settings found in the search are at high risk for ergonomic lumbar region, and measures of reconfiguration of workplaces and operation of auxiliary devices for lifting, transporting and unloading are fundamental, in addition to the need for reflection about the current logistical problems that induce producers to supply the cement sacks with 50 kg.

  15. Cutting costs through detailed probabilistic fire risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Luiz; Huser, Asmund; Vianna, Savio [Det Norske Veritas PRINCIPIA, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    A new procedure for calculation of fire risks to offshore installations has been developed. The purposes of the procedure are to calculate the escalation and impairment frequencies to be applied in quantitative risk analyses, to optimize Passive Fire Protection (PFP) arrangement, and to optimize other fire mitigation means. The novelties of the procedure are that it uses state of the art Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models to simulate fires and radiation, as well as the use of a probabilistic approach to decide the dimensioning fire loads. A CFD model of an actual platform was used to investigate the dynamic properties of a large set of jet fires, resulting in detailed knowledge of the important parameters that decide the severity of offshore fires. These results are applied to design the procedure. Potential increase in safety is further obtained for those conditions where simplified tools may have failed to predict abnormal heat loads due to geometrical effects. Using a field example it is indicated that the probabilistic approach can give significant reductions in PFP coverage with corresponding cost savings, still keeping the risk at acceptable level. (author)

  16. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigg, M. A.; Birch, C. E.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M. S.; Simpson, A. L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T. J.

    2016-09-01

    Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

  17. GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN LAND USE PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR HEMORRHAGIC FEVER RISK – A REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. Izzah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Human modification of the natural environment continues to create habitats in which vectors of a wide variety of human and animal pathogens (such as Plasmodium, Aedes aegypti, Arenavirus etc. thrive if unabated with an enormous potential to negatively affect public health. Typical examples of these modifications include impoundments, dams, irrigation systems, landfills and so on that provide enabled environment for the transmission of Hemorrhagic fever such as malaria, dengue, avian flu, Lassa fever etc. Furthermore, contemporary urban dwelling pattern appears to be associated with the prevalence of Hemorrhagic diseases in recent years. These observations are not peculiar to the developing world, as urban expansion also contributes significantly to mosquito and other vectors habitats. This habitats offer breeding ground to some vector virus populations. The key to disease control is developing an understanding of the contribution of human landscape modification to vector-borne pathogen transmission and how a balance may be achieved between human development, public health, and responsible urban land use. A comprehensive review of urban land use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic fever risk has been conducted in this paper. The study found that most of the available literatures dwell more on the impact of urban land use on malaria and dengue fevers; however, studies are yet to be found discussing the implications of urban land use on the risk of Ebola, Lassa and other non-mosquito borne VHFs. A relational model for investigating the influence of urban land use change pattern on the risk of Hemorrhagic fever has been proposed in this study.

  18. Analysis on the risk factors of second fracture in osteoporosis-

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RUAN Wen-dong

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available 【Abstract】 Objective: To explore the clinical characteristics and risk factors of refracture in patients suffering from osteoporosis-related fractures as well as effective interventions. Methods: From January 2006 to January 2008, both out-patients and in-patients in our hospital who were over 50 years old and suffered from osteoporosis-related fractures were selected for this research. They were divided into fracture group and refracture group. The refracture rate was followed up for 2 years, during which 11 patients developed refracture, thus were included in the refracture group. Therefore, 273 patients, 225 first-fracture cases, aged (67.7± 8.5 years, and 48 refracture cases, aged (72.7±9.5 years, were included in this study. General data including age and sex, fracture types, femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD T-scores tested by dual-energy X-rays absorptiometry (DEXA, Charlson index, time-frame between two fractures as well as mobility skill assessment were collected and analyzed by single-factor and multivariate statistical methods. Results: Females accounted for 70.2% of the fracture group and 77.1% of the refracture group. The most common refracture type was vertebral fracture for the first time and femoral neck fracture for the second time during the followup. The second fracture happened 3.7 years after the first one on average. The refracture rate was 2.12% within one year, and 4.66% within two years. Risk factors for a second fracture in osteoporotic fracture patients included age (>75 years, HR=1.23, 95%CI 1.18-1.29; >85 years, HR=1.68, 95% CI 1.60-1.76, female sex (HR=1.36, 95%CI 1.32-1.40, prior vertebral fractures (HR=1.62, 95%CI 1.01-2.07, prior hip fractures (HR=1.27, 95%CI 0.89-2.42, BMD T-score<-3.5 (HR=1.38, 95%CI 1.17-1.72 and weakened motor skills (HR=1.27, 95%CI 1.09-1.40. Conclusions: The risks of second fracture among patients with initial brittle fracture are substantial. There is adequate time between the

  19. Association between cholesterol intake and pancreatic cancer risk: evidence from a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hongqiang; Qin, Shiyong; Wang, Minghai; Zhang, Tao; Zhang, Shuguang

    2015-02-04

    Quantification of the association between the intake of cholesterol and risk of pancreatic cancer is still conflicting. We therefore conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidence from epidemiological studies of cholesterol intake and the risk of pancreatic cancer. Pertinent studies were delivered by PubMed and Web of Knowledge issued through April of 2014. A random effects model was used to process the data for analysis. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were conducted. Dose-response relationship was assessed by restricted cubic spline and variance-weighted least squares regression analysis. With 4513 pancreatic cases exemplified, 16 articles were applied in the meta-analysis. Pooled results suggest that cholesterol intake level was significantly associated with the risk of pancreatic cancer [summary relative risk (RR) = 1.371, 95%CI = 1.155-1.627, I(2) = 58.2%], especially in America [summary RR = 1.302, 95%CI = 1.090-1.556]. A linear dose-response relation was attested that the risk of pancreatic cancer rises by 8% with 100 mg/day of cholesterol intake. [summary RR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04-1.13]. In conclusion, our analysis suggests that a high intake of cholesterol might increase the risk of pancreatic cancer, especially in America.

  20. Cigarette smoking, N-acetyltransferase 2 genotypes, and breast cancer risk: pooled analysis and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambrosone, Christine B; Kropp, Silke; Yang, Jun; Yao, Song; Shields, Peter G; Chang-Claude, Jenny

    2008-01-01

    Approximately 10 years ago, it was noted that smoking increased risk of breast cancer among women with N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) slow acetylation genotypes. This report was followed by a number of studies to address this question. We pooled data from 10 existing studies and also conducted a meta-analysis of 13 studies published from 1996 to October 2006 that were conducted among women, were published in English, and had adequate information on smoking and NAT2 genotyping. Raw data were requested from authors. Unconditional logistic regression was done for pooled analysis, and random effect models was done for meta-analysis. Study heterogeneity was assessed, and sensitivity tests were done when subgroups were excluded from the analysis. In the pooled analysis, there was a significant interaction between smoking, NAT2 genotype, and risk of breast cancer [pack-years (continuous variable, P(interaction) = 0.03)], with higher pack-years significantly associated with an increased risk of breast cancer among women with NAT2 slow genotypes (pooled analysis relative risk, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.04). These findings were supported by the meta-analysis including all studies; pack-years were significantly associated with risk among slow acetylators in a dose-dependent fashion (meta-analysis relative risk, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-1.68 for > or =20 pack-years versus never smokers), but not among rapid acetylators. Similar relationships were noted for smoking status (ever, never) and duration of smoking. Our results show that cigarette smoking is associated with an increase in breast cancer risk among women with NAT2 slow acetylation genotypes. Because slow NAT2 genotypes are present in 50% to 60% of Caucasian populations, smoking is likely to play an important role in breast cancer etiology.

  1. Association between the CYP1B1 polymorphisms and risk of cancer: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jie-Ying; Yang, Yu; Liu, Zhi-Zhong; Xie, Jian-Jun; Du, Ya-Ping; Wang, Wei

    2015-04-01

    The previous, published data on the association between CYP1B1 polymorphisms and cancer risk remained controversial. To derive a more precise estimation of the association between the CYP1B1 polymorphisms and cancer risk, we performed a meta-analysis to investigate the association between cancer susceptibility and CYP1B1 Leu432Val, Asn453Ser, Arg48Gly, and Ala119Ser polymorphisms. For Asn453Ser and Arg48Gly polymorphisms, significantly decreased endometrial cancer was observed among Caucasians. For Ala119Ser polymorphism, we found that individuals with the minor variant genotypes had a high risk of prostate cancer. For Leu432Val polymorphism, we found that individuals with the minor variant genotypes had a higher risk of endometrial cancer and lung cancer and had a lower risk of ovarian cancer. In summary, this meta-analysis suggests that Leu432Val polymorphism is associated with ovarian cancer, lung cancer, and endometrial cancer risk; Asn453Ser and Arg48Gly polymorphisms are associated with endometrial cancer risk among Caucasians, Ala119Ser polymorphism is associated with prostate cancer risk, and Ala119Ser polymorphism is associated with breast cancer risk in Caucasians. In addition, our work also points out the importance of new studies for Ala119Ser polymorphism in endometrial cancer, because high heterogeneity was observed (I (2) > 75 %).

  2. An Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Factors of the Slovenian Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boštjan Aver

    Full Text Available The study presents the results of an analysis of credit risk factors of the Slovenian banking system. The objective of the empirical analysis is to establish which macroeconomic factors influence the systematic credit risk of the Slovenian banking loan portfolio. The research results have confirmed the main hypothesis that certain macroeconomic factors have a major influence on the examined credit risk.We could conclude that the credit risk of the loan portfolio depends on the employment or unemployment rate in Slovenia, on short and long-term interest rates of Slovenian banks and the Bank of Slovenia, and on the value of the Slovenian stock exchange index. We cannot claim that the examined credit risk depends on the inflation rate in Slovenia, the growth of GDP (industrial production, EUR and USD exchange rates or the growth of Slovenian import and export.

  3. [Multifactorial analysis of risk factors for low birth weight in Salvador, Bahia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solla, J J; Pereira, R A; Medina, M G; Pinto, L L; Mota, E

    1997-07-01

    This study is a multifactorial analysis of the risk factors for low birthweight in a group of newborns in an urban area of Brazil. A total of 1023 infants born in four maternity units in Salvador, Bahia, between July 1987 and February 1988 were included in the study. The sources of information were clinical histories and interviews with the mothers in the maternity units. The analysis was by means of logistic regression. In the final model the risk factors were the following: maternal age less than 21 years or more than 35; gestational age less than 38 weeks; unfavorable outcome of an earlier pregnancy; interval of 12 months or less since prior birth; tobacco smoking; and hypertension. The population attributable risk values for the risk factors included in the final model are presented. These factors should be used to identify pregnant women at high risk of giving birth to a low-birthweight baby, in order to provide them with more prenatal care.

  4. On Intelligent Systems of the Data Acquisition in the Schedule Risk Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZhongxiangChen; ChaoyuanYue

    2004-01-01

    It is an important task to analyze the schedule risk in a project management.As a semi-constructed or non-constructed complex system, there are many difficulties in the quantitative analysis of the schedule risk (SRA). The paper integrates intelligent techniques to obtain massive basic data required in the risk analysis process. It greatly improves the precision and efficiency of the SRA. In addition, the paper presents a mechanism and architecture of the integrated intelligent systems. Finally, the concluding remarks are provided for basic data acquisition in the SRA.

  5. Risk-Based Measurement and Analysis: Application to Software Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    diagram) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis ( FMEA ) [Stamatis 2003]. Both of these techniques structure the discussion about what can go wrong...http://www.sei.cmu.edu/library/abstracts/reports/09tr022.cfm [Stamatis 2003] Stamatis, D. H. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis: FMEA from Theory to

  6. Analysis of Risks Generated by Suppliers During the Period of Economic Fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karla Jurásková

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to examine one group of supply chain risks, namely the current risks generated by the suppliers and their relations to the position of companies in the supply chain and the current economic fluctuations, as well as to gain the knowledge on how to mitigate these risks, including the cooperation between the partners. The research was conducted in two stages by means of a questionnaire analysis and follow-up of multiple case studies. The surveys used have registered certain signals showing increasing dependence on the suppliers, deepening imbalances in the supply chains and decreasing opportunities of reducing the presence of risks. The surveys have also detected tendencies leading to structural measures strengthening resilience of the supply chain. The areas for further research of supply chains risks and risks management are formulated based on the acquired findings.

  7. A Hybrid Latent Class Analysis Modeling Approach to Analyze Urban Expressway Crash Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2017-02-07

    Crash risk analysis is rising as a hot research topic as it could reveal the relationships between traffic flow characteristics and crash occurrence risk, which is beneficial to understand crash mechanisms which would further refine the design of Active Traffic Management System (ATMS). However, the majority of the current crash risk analysis studies have ignored the impact of geometric characteristics on crash risk estimation while recent studies proved that crash occurrence risk was affected by the various alignment features. In this study, a hybrid Latent Class Analysis (LCA) modeling approach was proposed to account for the heterogeneous effects of geometric characteristics. Crashes were first segmented into homogenous subgroups, where the optimal number of latent classes was identified based on bootstrap likelihood ratio tests. Then, separate crash risk analysis models were developed using Bayesian random parameter logistic regression technique; data from Shanghai urban expressway system were employed to conduct the empirical study. Different crash risk contributing factors were unveiled by the hybrid LCA approach and better model goodness-of-fit was obtained while comparing to an overall total crash model. Finally, benefits of the proposed hybrid LCA approach were discussed.

  8. Space Weather Influence on Power Systems: Prediction, Risk Analysis, and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatsenko, Vitaliy

    2016-04-01

    This report concentrates on dynamic probabilistic risk analysis of optical elements for complex characterization of damages using physical model of solid state lasers and predictable level of ionizing radiation and space weather. The following main subjects will be covered by our report: (a) solid-state laser model; (b) mathematical models for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; and (c) software for modeling and prediction of ionizing radiation. A probabilistic risk assessment method for solid-state lasers is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. Probabilistic risk assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in solid-state lasers for the purpose of cost-e®ectively improving their safety and performance. This method based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk measure (CVaR) and the expected loss exceeding Value-at-Risk (VaR). We propose to use a new dynamical-information approach for radiation damage risk assessment of laser elements by cosmic radiation. Our approach includes the following steps: laser modeling, modeling of ionizing radiation in°uences on laser elements, probabilistic risk assessment methods, and risk minimization. For computer simulation of damage processes at microscopic and macroscopic levels the following methods are used: () statistical; (b) dynamical; (c) optimization; (d) acceleration modeling, and (e) mathematical modeling of laser functioning. Mathematical models of space ionizing radiation in°uence on laser elements were developed for risk assessment in laser safety analysis. This is a so-called `black box' or `input-output' models, which seeks only to reproduce the behaviour of the system's output in response to changes in its inputs. The model inputs are radiation in°uences on laser systems and output parameters are dynamical characteristics of the solid laser. Algorithms and software for optimal structure and parameters of

  9. Deterministic and risk-informed approaches for safety analysis of advanced reactors: Part II, Risk-informed approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Inn Seock, E-mail: innseockkim@gmail.co [ISSA Technology, 21318 Seneca Crossing Drive, Germantown, MD 20876 (United States); Ahn, Sang Kyu; Oh, Kyu Myung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, 19 Kusong-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-338 (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-05-15

    Technical insights and findings from a critical review of deterministic approaches typically applied to ensure design safety of nuclear power plants were presented in the companion paper of Part I included in this issue. In this paper we discuss the risk-informed approaches that have been proposed to make a safety case for advanced reactors including Generation-IV reactors such as Modular High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (MHTGR), Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR), or Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR). Also considered herein are a risk-informed safety analysis approach suggested by Westinghouse as a means to improve the conventional accident analysis, together with the Technology Neutral Framework recently developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission as a high-level regulatory infrastructure for safety evaluation of any type of reactor design. The insights from a comparative review of various deterministic and risk-informed approaches could be usefully used in developing a new licensing architecture for enhanced safety of evolutionary or advanced plants.

  10. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  11. Analysis of risks and investments’ opportunities in water sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fjona Zeneli

    2016-01-01

    These opportunities result from the difference between water supply and water demand; an increasingly difference that requires capital investments in production and water treatment technologies. Investments need to be combined with the knowledge on the legislation, regulatory framework and technological developments. This article may serve to clarify type of investments in drinking water sector, known by literature, to identify opportunities of investment in this sector, indicating the theoretical framework of beta and alpha risk ratio coefficient calculation and to suggest how these types of investments can be allocated to the investment portfolios.

  12. Barrier and operational risk analysis of hydrocarbon releases (BORA-Release). Part I. Method description.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aven, Terje; Sklet, Snorre; Vinnem, Jan Erik

    2006-09-21

    Investigations of major accidents show that technical, human, operational, as well as organisational factors influence the accident sequences. In spite of these facts, quantitative risk analyses of offshore oil and gas production platforms have focused on technical safety systems. This paper presents a method (called BORA-Release) for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis of the platform specific hydrocarbon release frequency. By using BORA-Release it is possible to analyse the effect of safety barriers introduced to prevent hydrocarbon releases, and how platform specific conditions of technical, human, operational, and organisational risk influencing factors influence the barrier performance. BORA-Release comprises the following main steps: (1) development of a basic risk model including release scenarios, (2) modelling the performance of safety barriers, (3) assignment of industry average probabilities/frequencies and risk quantification based on these probabilities/frequencies, (4) development of risk influence diagrams, (5) scoring of risk influencing factors, (6) weighting of risk influencing factors, (7) adjustment of industry average probabilities/frequencies, and (8) recalculation of the risk in order to determine the platform specific risk related to hydrocarbon release. The various steps in BORA-Release are presented and discussed. Part II of the paper presents results from a case study where BORA-Release is applied.

  13. A new tool for risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El-Arkam Mechhoud

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our work was the implementation of a new automated tool dedicated to risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants, based on a combination of two analysis methods: HAZOP (HAZard and OPerability and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. Assessment of accident scenarios is also considered. The principal advantage of the two analysis methods is to speed-up hazard identification and risk assessment and forecast the nature and impact of such accidents. Plant parameters are analyzed under a graphical interface to facilitate the exploitation of our developed approach. This automated analysis brings out the different deviations of the operating parameters of any system in the plant. Possible causes of these deviations, their consequences and preventive actions are identified. The result is risk minimization and dependability enhancement of the considered system.

  14. Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement: Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shatkin, J. A. [Vireo Advisors, Boston MA USA; Ong, Kimberly J. [Vireo Advisors, Boston MA USA; Beaudrie, Christian [Compass RM, Vancouver CA USA; Clippinger, Amy J. [PETA International Science Consortium Ltd, London UK; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham NC USA; Haber, Lynne T. [TERA, Cincinnati OH USA; Hill, Myriam [Health Canada, Ottawa Canada; Holden, Patricia [UC Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, ERI, and UC CEIN, University of California, Santa Barbara CA USA; Kennedy, Alan J. [U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory, Vicksburg MS USA; Kim, Baram [Independent, Somerville MA USA; MacDonell, Margaret [Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Division, Argonne IL USA; Powers, Christina M. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor MI USA; Sharma, Monita [PETA International Science Consortium Ltd, London UK; Sheremeta, Lorraine [Alberta Ingenuity Labs, Edmonton Alberta Canada; Stone, Vicki [John Muir Building Gait 1 Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh Scotland UK; Sultan, Yasir [Environment Canada, Gatineau QC Canada; Turley, Audrey [ICF International, Durham NC USA; White, Ronald H. [RH White Consultants, Silver Spring MD USA

    2016-08-01

    The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATS use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article.

  15. Risk Analysis and Assessment of Overtopping Concerning Sea Dikes in the Case of Storm Surge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王莉萍; 黄桂玲; 陈正寿; 梁丙臣; 刘桂林

    2014-01-01

    Risk-analysis-and-assessment-relating-coastal-structures-has-been-one-of-the-hot-topics-in-the-area-of-coastal-protection-recently.-In-this-paper,-from-three-aspects-of-joint-return-period-of-multiple-loads,-dike-failure-rate-and-dike-continuous-risk-prevention-respectively,-three-new-risk-analysis-methods-concerning-overtopping-of-sea-dikes-are-developed.-It-is-worth-noting-that-the-factors-of-storm-surge-which-leads-to-overtopping-are-also-considered-in-the-three-methods.-In-order-to-verify-and-estimate-the-effectiveness-and-reliability-of-the-newly-developed-methods,-quantified-mutual-information-is-adopted.-By-means-of-case-testing,-it-can-be-found-that-different-prior-variables-might-be-selected-dividedly,-according-to-the-requirement-of-special-engineering-application-or-the-dominance-of-loads.-Based-on-the-selection-of-prior-variables,-the-correlating-risk-analysis-method-can-be-successfully-applied-to-practical-engineering.

  16. Analysis of high risk factors related to acute respiratory distress syndrome following severe thoracoabdominal injuries

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Guo-shou; BAI Xiang-jun; ZHAN Cheng-ye

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the high risk factors related to acute respiratory distress syndrome ( ARDS ) following serious thoracoabdominal injuries.Methods: The clinical data of 282 patients with serious thoracoabdominal injuries were retrospectively studied. Univariate and Cox multivariate regression analysis were used to determine the risk factors related to ARDS following serious thoracoabdominal injuries.Results: The incidence of ARDS was 31.9% (90/282) in patients with serious thoracoabdominal injuries.The mortality caused by ARDS was 37.8% (34/90). The univariate analysis and multivariate analysis demonstrated that the clinical conditions such as elder age, shock,dyspnea, abnormal arterial blood gas, hemopneumothorax,pulmonary contusion, flail chest, coexisting pulmonary diseases, multiple abdominal injury and high ISS score were the independent high risk factors related to ARDS.Conclusion: There are many high risk factors related to ARDS following severe thoracoabdominal injuries, which should be detected early and treated timely to decrease the incidence and mortality of ARDS.

  17. Risk Analysis of the Romanian Banking System – an Aggregated Balance Sheet Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugen MITRICA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a risk analysis for the current Romanian banking system. The analysis is conducted from the point of view of prudential rules and also from the point of view of Romanian banking system’s exposure to foreign funds, considering the consequences of these features, concerning the soundness and reliability of the banking system. The analysis found a manageable risk level, apparently, although during 2009 and 2010 the expansion of risk indicators was accelerated, but finally, in the late 2010, there are some signs of stabilization. The exposure of Romanian banking system to foreign funds was another important risk source. The exposure to foreign funds had an important decrease during 2009, but in 2010 it seems to stabilize.

  18. MULTIVARIATE STEPWISE LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON RISK FACTORS OF VENTILATOR-ASSOCIATED PNEUMONIA IN COMPREHENSIVE ICU

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    管军; 杨兴易; 赵良; 林兆奋; 郭昌星; 李文放

    2003-01-01

    Objective To investigate the incidence, crude mortality and independent risk factors of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in comprehensive ICU in China.Methods The clinical and microbiological data were retrospectively collected and analysed of all the 97 patients receiving mechanical ventilation (>48hr) in our comprehensive ICU during 1999. 1 - 2000. 12. Firstly several statistically significant risk factors were screened out with univariate analysis, then independent risk factors were determined with multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis.Results The incidence of VAP was 54. 64% (15. 60 cases per 1000 ventilation days), the crude mortality 47.42% . Interval between the establishment of artificial airway and diagnosis of VAP was 6.9 ± 4.3 d. Univariate analysis suggested that indwelling naso-gastric tube, corticosteroid, acid inhibitor, third-generation cephalosporin/ imipenem, non - infection lung disease, and extrapulmonary infection were the statistically significant risk factors of

  19. Report on the U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Program's 2009 Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    NREL conducted an annual program risk analysis on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program (GTP). NREL implemented a probabilistic risk analysis of GTP-sponsored research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) work, primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The analysis examined estimates of improvement potential derived from program RD&D work for two types of technology performance metric (TPM): EGS-enabling technologies potential and EGS cost improvement potential. Four risk teams (exploration, wells/pumps/tools, reservoir engineering, and power conversion) comprised of industry experts, DOE laboratory researchers, academic researchers, and laboratory subcontractors estimated the RD&D impacts and TPM-improvement probability distributions. The assessment employed a risk analysis spreadsheet add-in that uses Monte Carlo simulation to drive the Geothermal Electric Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM). The GETEM-based risk analysis used baseline data from the experts' discussion of multiple reports and data sources. Risk results are expressed in terms of each metric's units and/or the program's top-level metric: levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Results--both qualitative comments and quantitative improvement potential--are thorough and cohesive in three of the four expert groups. This conference paper summarizes the industry's current thinking on various metrics and potential for research improvement in geothermal technologies.

  20. Counterparty risk analysis using Merton's structural model under Solvency II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Otero González

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The new solvency regulation in the European insurance sector, denominated Solvency II, will completely transform the system of capital requirements estimation. Recently it has introduced the latest quantitative impact study (QIS5, which provides the calculation method in the internal model for the determination of capital requirements. The aim of this paper is to analyze the adequacy of the calibration of the counterparty credit risk by the models proposed in recent quantitative impact reports (fourth and fifth. To do this we compare capital requirements obtained by the two alternatives, against which that results from applying a simulation model based on the structural approach. The results shows that the use of probabilities based on the methodology of Merton, which can be used in an internal model, compared to those based on ratings (standard model result in substantially higher capital requirements. In addition, the model proposed in QIS4 based on Vasicek distribution is not appropriate when the number of counterparties is reduced, a common situation in the European insurance sector. Moreover, the new proposal (QIS5 or Ter Berg model is more versatile and suitable than its predecessor but requires further research in order to improve the calibration hypothesis and, thus, to better approximate estimates to the risk actually assumed.

  1. Complicated appendicitis: Analysis of risk factors in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahavir Singh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Acute appendicitis (AA is the most common surgical emergency in childhood. The risk of rupture is negligible within the first 24 h, climbing to 6% after 36 h from the onset of symptoms. Because of difficulty in accurate diagnosis of AA a significant number of children still are being managed when it is already perforated. There is always a need to make an early diagnosis of AA and to find out the risk factors associated with development of complication in this condition. Patients and Methods: A total of 102 patients with a clinical diagnosis of AA were admitted during the study period. On admission, a good clinical history and proper physical examination was performed. All the eligible patients who finally diagnosed clinically as having AA were planned for emergency open appendectomy. The removed appendix was sent for histopathological examination in all the study subjects. Results: Out of 102 cases, 93 cases were histopathologically appendicitis, rest nine cases showed no evidence of inflammation so the rate of negative appendectomy was around 9%. On histopathology normal appendix was found in nine patients (8.9%, AA in 71 patients (69.6%, complicated appendicitis (CA which includes perforated and gangrenous appendicitis was present in 22 patients (21.5%. Perforations were more common in patients who were younger than 5 years. >60% patients presented with CA when the duration of pain was >72 h. Presence of appendicolith increased the probability of CA.

  2. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: economics and marketing-finance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalogeras, N; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Pennings, J M E; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Holm, F; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    All market participants (e.g., investors, producers, consumers) accept a certain level of risk as necessary to achieve certain benefits. There are many types of risk including price, production, financial, institutional, and individual human risks. All these risks should be effectively managed in order to derive the utmost of benefits and avoid disruption and/or catastrophic economic consequences for the food industry. The identification, analysis, determination, and understanding of the benefit-risk trade-offs of market participants in the food markets may help policy makers, financial analysts and marketers to make well-informed and effective corporate investment strategies in order to deal with highly uncertain and risky situations. In this paper, we discuss the role that benefits and risks play in the formation of the decision-making process of market-participants, who are engaged in the upstream and downstream stages of the food supply chain. In addition, we review the most common approaches (expected utility model and psychometrics) for measuring benefit-risk trade-offs in the economics and marketing-finance literature, and different factors that may affect the economic behaviour in the light of benefit-risk analyses. Building on the findings of our review, we introduce a conceptual framework to study the benefit-risk behaviour of market participants. Specifically, we suggest the decoupling of benefits and risks into the separate components of utilitarian benefits, hedonic benefits, and risk attitude and risk perception, respectively. Predicting and explaining how market participants in the food industry form their overall attitude in light of benefit-risk trade-offs may be critical for policy-makers and managers who need to understand the drivers of the economic behaviour of market participants with respect to production, marketing and consumption of food products.

  3. A Conceptual Analysis of Current Trends in the Evolution of Risk Management Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The traditional idea of risk management is continually evolving as it enjoys growing popularity in corporations. The paper reviews the risk management procedure within the traditional concept and then identifies and discusses the main trends currently observed within the organisation and implementation of this procedure. Scientific aim: The paper aims at identyfing and describing the currently observed trends in the evolution of risk management process. To achieve this, it aims at comparative analysis of solutions within traditional risk management concept and the ideas underpinning the current process of risk management standardisation. It also aims at reviewing the validity of clasiffication of risk treatment techniques. Methodology/methods: The paper represents a conceptual analysis of the current state of affairs and uses the method of comparative analysis and deduction based on the literature review and the lecture of standardisation documents. As a viewpoint paper, it represents au-thor’s own ideas and findings. Findings: The two main trends of risk management evolution should be idetified. The first one is related with strategic dimension of risk management as this procedure is often promoted as an integrated concept. It springs from the regulations of standardisation procedures which aim at unifying the terminology and set of activities from practitioners’ perspective. The second direction of risk management concept evolution is observed within the development of risk financing techniques due to the innovations observed within traditional risk retention and trasfer solutions, as a result of continuous convergence of insurance and capital markets. Conclusions: (limits, implications etc The risk management process is constantly evolving toward the strategic dimension as the risk perception changes, concerning both the downside and upside of risk. However, the standards follow similar sequence of

  4. 77 FR 22557 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Strawberry Fruit From Egypt...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-16

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk.... SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks... will be sufficient to mitigate the risks of introducing or disseminating plant pests or noxious...

  5. 75 FR 32900 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Sweet Limes From Mexico...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-10

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk... have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation of sweet... application of one or more designated phytosanitary measures will be sufficient to mitigate the pest risk....

  6. Identification and Prioritization of Analysis Cases for Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Risk Screening

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-06-16

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of marine and hydrokinetic energy generation projects. The development process consists of two main phases of analysis. In the first phase, preliminary risk analyses will take the form of screening studies in which key environmental impacts and the uncertainties that create risk are identified, leading to a better-focused characterization of the relevant environmental effects. Existence of critical data gaps will suggest areas in which specific modeling and/or data collection activities should take place. In the second phase, more detailed quantitative risk analyses will be conducted, with residual uncertainties providing the basis for recommending risk mitigation and monitoring activities. We also describe the process used for selecting three cases for fiscal year 2010 risk screening analysis using the ERES. A case is defined as a specific technology deployed in a particular location involving certain environmental receptors specific to that location. The three cases selected satisfy a number of desirable criteria: 1) they correspond to real projects whose deployment is likely to take place in the foreseeable future; 2) the technology developers are willing to share technology and project-related data; 3) the projects represent a diversity of technology-site-receptor characteristics; 4) the projects are of national interest, and 5) environmental effects data may be available for the projects.

  7. Risk of Credit Cooperatives: An analysis based on the profile of the cooperated

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Roberto de Souza Francisco

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This work has as purpose to analyze among the credit operations, those that generate larger breach of contract risk for the cooperative, with base in the profile of the cooperated, and to identify which the strategies can be pointed to avoid possible flaws in the next credit analyses. The work was divided in three stages. The first stage refers to the National Financial System, with the objective of demonstrating as in him the Cooperatives of Credit are inserted. The second stage approaches the System of Cooperative Credit, it presents that form is structured and his/her hierarchical level. The third stage treats of the System of Risk of Credit, in the which the risk, administration and the models of credit evaluation will be analyzed. It was verified that the most appropriate models for analysis of the Cooperatives of Credit are Credit Scoring Models and Credit Bureau, us which, through statistical techniques as the analysis discriminante and regression logistics, the characteristics of considered credits of larger breach of contract risk were demonstrated. The analysis based on identifying the "worse customer", because this generates larger breach of contract risk and it influences in the financial administration. It was ended that the most relevant variables to identify the breach of contract risk were the rude monthly income and the value liberated in the credit concession, because the largest concentration of breach of contract risk.

  8. Alzheimer's Disease is an Important Risk Factor of Fractures: a Meta-analysis of Cohort Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Ying; Wang, Lei

    2016-04-12

    The risk of fracture in individuals with Alzheimer's disease had not been fully quantified. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was performed to estimate the impact of Alzheimer's disease on risk of fractures. Pubmed and Embase were searched for eligible cohort studies assessing the association between Alzheimer's disease and risk of fractures. The overall relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs were calculated using a random-effects model to evaluate the association. Six cohort studies with a total of 137,986 participants were included into the meta-analysis. Meta-analysis of a total of six studies showed that Alzheimer's disease was significantly associated with two-fold increased risk of fractures (RR = 2.18, 95 % CI 1.64-2.90, P Alzheimer's disease was significantly associated with 2.5-fold increased risk of hip fracture (RR = 2.52, 95 % CI 2.26-2.81, P Alzheimer's disease is a risk factor of hip fracture.

  9. Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

    2016-01-01

    Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.

  10. [Risk Factor Analysis of Pneumonia after Cardiovascular Surgery].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maekawa, Yoshiyuki; Abe, Shuichi; Nakamura, Ken; Uchida, Tetsuro; Sadahiro, Mitsuaki; Morikane, Keita

    2016-08-01

    Pneumonia is a major and life-threatening complication after cardiovascular surgery. The objective of our study was to describe epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and risk factors of pneumonia after cardiovascular surgery. From January 2007 to December 2011, 511 consecutive patients (age 67.3±11.9;336 men, 175 women) were enrolled in this study. Pneumonia was diagnosed according to Centers of Disease Control and Prevention surveillance criteria for healthcare associated infection. Data collection included preoperative, intraoperative, and post-operative variables. The overall incidence of pneumonia was 72 cases(14.0%). The mortality in pneumonia group was significantly higher than that in non-pneumonia group (16.6% vs 4.3%, Odds ratio 4.4 ppneumonia after cardiovascular surgery.

  11. Climate change induced risk analysis of Addis Ababa city (Ethiopia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalayer, Fatemeh; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Fekade, Rebka; Nebebe, Alemu; Woldegerima, Tekle; Workalemahu, Liku; Workneh, Abraham; Yonas, Nebyou; Abebe Bekele, Essete; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

    2013-04-01

    CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its objective is to develop context-centered methods to assess vulnerability and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks and to estimate the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The project downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, desertification. It also evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. CLUVA combines assessment approaches to investigate how cities, communities and households can resist and cope with, as well as recover from climate induced hazards. This multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will report on the progresses of the Addis Ababa case study. Addis Ababa, the largest city in Ethiopia, is exposed to heat waves, drought, and, more recently, to flash floods. Due to undulating topography, poor waste management and the absence of sustainable storm water management, Addis Ababa is prone to severe flood events during the rainy seasons. Metropolitan Addis Ababa is crossed by several small watercourses. Torrential rains, very common during the rainy season, cause a sudden rise in the flow of these water courses, inundating and damaging the settlements along their banks and affecting the livelihood of the local population. The combination of climate change and development pressures are expected to exacerbate the

  12. Systemic risk analysis in reconstructed economic and financial networks

    CERN Document Server

    Cimini, Giulio; Gabrielli, Andrea; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of fundamental properties for economic and financial systems, such as systemic risk, is systematically hindered by privacy issues$-$that put severe limitations on the available information. Here we introduce a novel method to reconstruct partially-accessible networked systems of this kind. The method is based on the knowledge of the fitnesses, $i.e.$, intrinsic node-specific properties, and of the number of connections of only a limited subset of nodes. Such information is used to calibrate a directed configuration model which can generate ensembles of networks intended to represent the real system, so that the real network properties can be estimated within the generated ensemble in terms of mean values of the observables. Here we focus on estimating those properties that are commonly used to measure the network resilience to shock and crashes. Tests on both artificial and empirical networks shows that the method is remarkably robust with respect to the limitedness of the information available...

  13. Smoking, radiotherapy, diabetes and osteoporosis as risk factors for dental implant failure: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Chen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There are conflicting reports as to the association between smoking, radiotherapy, diabetes and osteoporosis and the risk of dental implant failure. We undertook a meta-analysis to evaluate the association between smoking, radiotherapy, diabetes and osteoporosis and the risk of dental implant failure. METHODS: A comprehensive research on MEDLINE and EMBASE, up to January 2013, was conducted to identify potential studies. References of relevant studies were also searched. Screening, data extraction and quality assessment were conducted independently and in duplicate. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool estimates of relative risks (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs. RESULTS: A total of 51 studies were identified in this meta-analysis, with more than 40,000 dental implants placed under risk-threatening conditions. The pooled RRs showed a direct association between smoking (n = 33; RR = 1.92; 95% CI, 1.67-2.21 and radiotherapy (n = 16; RR = 2.28; 95% CI, 1.49-3.51 and the risk of dental implant failure, whereas no inverse impact of diabetes (n = 5; RR = 0.90; 95% CI, 0.62-1.32 on the risk of dental implant failure was found. The influence of osteoporosis on the risk of dental implant failure was direct but not significant (n = 4; RR = 1.09; 95% CI, 0.79-1.52. The subgroup analysis indicated no influence of study design, geographical location, length of follow-up, sample size, or mean age of recruited patients. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking and radiotherapy were associated with an increased risk of dental implant failure. The relationship between diabetes and osteoporosis and the risk of implant failure warrant further study.

  14. Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Wei-qiong; WU Xuan

    2006-01-01

    In order to further reveal the interrelation among division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters, we select 21 representative sites located in different places within the range of 100°~120°E, 29°~42°N to study the influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of statistical regions on seismic risk estimations of these sites in the inhomogeneous and homogeneous distribution models. Combining the results from this study and previous ones, we can see that different schemes for dividing seismic statistical regions can change the seismic data in a statistical region. The uncertain data and additional uncertainty in selecting time intervals for seismic statistics will result in uncertainty of seismicity parameters estimation in a statistical region. For the homogeneous model, the larger the variation of this uncertainty is, the greater the uncertain influence on the seismic risk estimation of a site will be, which means that the division of seismic statistical regions makes a major contribution. In a seismic statistical region, the delimitation of potential sources and variant weight assignment of spatial distribution functions can raise the estimated values of ground motion parameters in the place where great earthquake might occur and its vicinity. In these places, the influence of uncertainty in potential source delimitation is very obvious, especially on the absolute magnitude of ground motion parameters (e.g., intensity), which means that the link of potential source delimitation makes a major effect. Generally speaking, the link of potential source delimitation affects mainly the sites located in the potential sources with the highest and second-high upper-limit earthquake magnitudes or in the vicinity of those with the highest upper-limit magnitude. While for the sites located in the potential sources with low upper-limit magnitudes, the uncertainty influence of statistical

  15. Risk factor analysis for metaplastic gastritis in Koreans

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Soonami Choi; Yun Jeong Lim; Sue Kyung Park

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To conduct a retrospective study to determine the risk factors for development of metaplastic gastritis in Korean population.METHODS: The database of 113449 subjects who underwent a gastroscopy for the purpose of a regular check-up at center for health promotion, Samsung medical center during 5 years was collected and retrospectively analyzed. Among them, 5847 subjects who had endoscopically diagnosed as a metaplastic gastritis or 10076 normal as well as answered to questionnaire were included for present study. The subjects were divided into 2 groups; Group Ⅰ, normal and Group Ⅱ, metaplastic gastritis. Age, gender, Helicobacter pylori(H pylori) seropositivity, body mass index (BMI),family history of cancer, smoking, alcohol consumption,total daily calories, folate and salt intake and dietary habit (out-eating, overeating, irregular eating) were retrieved from questionnaire or electronic medical record and compared between group Ⅰ and group Ⅱ.RESULTS: The prevalence of group Ⅱ was 11%(13578/113449) increasing its prevalence with age(P= 0.000). But, there was no significant association between 2 groups in BMI, family history of cancer,alcohol consumption, total daily calories, folate and salt intake and dietary habit (out-eating, overeating, irregular eating). Old age (P=0.000), male gender (P=0.000),H pylori seropositivity (P= 0.010) and current smoker (P= 0.000) were significantly more common in group Ⅱ at multiple logistic regression model.CONCLUSION: Our data suggested that old age, male gender,Hpyloriseropositivity and smoking were risk factors for metaplastic gastritis, precancerous lesion of gastric cancer.

  16. Relative risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: a spatial analysis in urban area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valdelaine Etelvina Miranda de Araújo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the VL urbanization is a challenge for the control program. The goals were to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission. METHODOLOGY: This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL. Spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units (146 small-areas of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Human VL cases, from 2007 to 2009 (n = 412, were obtained in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. Bayesian approach was used to model the relative risk of VL including potential risk factors involved in transmission (canine infection, socioeconomic and environmental features and to identify the small-areas of greater risk to human VL. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The relative risk of VL was shown to be correlated with income, education, and the number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The estimates of relative risk of VL were higher than 1.0 in 54% of the areas (79/146. The spatial modeling highlighted 14 areas with the highest relative risk of VL and 12 of them are concentrated in the northern region of the city. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis used in this study is useful for the identification of small-areas according to risk of human VL and presents operational applicability in control and surveillance program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus the frequent monitoring of relative risk of human VL in small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities.

  17. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1996-12-01

    Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  18. Myeloperoxidase polymorphism, menopausal status, and breast cancer risk: an update meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Qin

    Full Text Available Myeloperoxidase (MPO is a metabolic/oxidative lysosomal enzyme secreted by reactive neutrophils at the sites of inflamed organs and tissues during phagocytosis. MPO has been either directly or indirectly linked to neoplasia, which is a well-established risk factor for many types of cancer. A large number of studies have reported the role of MPO G-463A polymorphism regarding breast-cancer risk. However, the published findings are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine more precise estimations for the relationship. Eligible studies were identified by searching several electronic databases for relevant reports published before June 2012. According to the inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria, a total of five eligible studies were included in the pooled analyses. When the five eligible studies concerning MPO G-463A polymorphism were pooled into this meta-analysis, there was no evidence found for a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. We also categorized by ethnicity (Caucasian or Asian for subgroup analysis; according to this subgroup analysis, we found no significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. However, in the stratified analysis for the premenopausal group, women carrying the AA genotype were found to have a significantly reduced risk (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.94, p = 0.027. Under the recessive model, there was a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk (OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.34-0.93, p = 0.025. We conclude that MPO-G463A polymorphism might not be a good predictor of breast-cancer risk, though menopausal status modified women's risk of developing breast cancer.

  19. The Short- and Long-Term Risk of Stroke after Herpes Zoster: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuechun; Guan, Yeming; Hou, Liang; Huang, Haili; Liu, Hongjuan; Li, Chuanwen; Zhu, Yingying; Tao, Xingyong; Wang, Qingsong

    2016-01-01

    Background Accumulating evidence indicates that stroke risk may be increased following herpes zoster. The aim of this study is to perform a meta-analysis of current literature to systematically analyze and quantitatively estimate the short and long-term effects of herpes zoster on the risk of stroke. Methods Embase, PubMed and Cochrane library databases were searched for relevant studies up to March 2016. Studies were selected for analysis based on certain inclusion and exclusion criteria. Relative risks with 95% confidence interval (CI) were extracted to assess the association between herpes zoster and stroke. Results A total of 8 articles were included in our analysis. The present meta-analysis showed that the risks of stroke after herpes zoster were 2.36 (95% CI: 2.17–2.56) for first 2 weeks, 1.56 (95% CI: 1.46–1.66) for first month, 1.17 (95% CI: 1.13–1.22) for first year, and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02–1.16) for more than 1 year, respectively. Conclusion The results of our study demonstrated that herpes zoster was associated with a higher risk of stroke, but the risks decreased along with the time after herpes zoster. PMID:27768762

  20. Spatial stochastic simulation offers potential as a quantitative method for pest risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafoss, Trond

    2003-08-01

    Pest risk analysis represents an emerging field of risk analysis that evaluates the potential risks of the introduction and establishment of plant pests into a new geographic location and then assesses the management options to reduce those potential risks. Development of new and adapted methodology is required to answer questions concerning pest risk analysis of exotic plant pests. This research describes a new method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study, Ralstonia solanacearum, a bacterial disease of potato. This method combines current quantitative methodologies, stochastic simulation, and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information about pest establishment potential in a geographical region where a pest had not been introduced. This proposed method extends an existing methodology for matching pest characteristics with environmental conditions by modeling and simulating dissemination behavior of a pest organism. Issues related to integrating spatial variables into risk analysis models are further discussed in this article.