Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Kann
2011-12-01
Full Text Available During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011, provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min and spatial (1 km resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011. The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR which yields a statistical mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion for Gaussian distributed continuous
Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles
Máté, Gabriell; Heermann, Dieter
2014-04-01
As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.
Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriell eMáté
2014-04-01
Full Text Available As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.
Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.
2009-01-01
This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in
Analysis of peeling decoder for MET ensembles
Hinton, Ryan
2009-01-01
The peeling decoder introduced by Luby, et al. allows analysis of LDPC decoding for the binary erasure channel (BEC). For irregular ensembles, they analyze the decoder state as a Markov process and present a solution to the differential equations describing the process mean. Multi-edge type (MET) ensembles allow greater precision through specifying graph connectivity. We generalize the the peeling decoder for MET ensembles and derive analogous differential equations. We offer a new change of variables and solution to the node fraction evolutions in the general (MET) case. This result is preparatory to investigating finite-length ensemble behavior.
On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles
Luo, Xiaodong
2010-09-19
The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) [1, 2, 3, 4] is a popular method for data assimilation in high dimensional systems (e.g., geophysics models). Essentially the EnSRF is a Monte Carlo implementation of the conventional Kalman filter (KF) [5, 6]. It is mainly different from the KF at the prediction steps, where it is some ensembles, rather then the means and covariance matrices, of the system state that are propagated forward. In doing this, the EnSRF is computationally more efficient than the KF, since propagating a covariance matrix forward in high dimensional systems is prohibitively expensive. In addition, the EnSRF is also very convenient in implementation. By propagating the ensembles of the system state, the EnSRF can be directly applied to nonlinear systems without any change in comparison to the assimilation procedures in linear systems. However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].
Phenotype Recognition with Combined Features and Random Subspace Classifier Ensemble
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pham Tuan D
2011-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Automated, image based high-content screening is a fundamental tool for discovery in biological science. Modern robotic fluorescence microscopes are able to capture thousands of images from massively parallel experiments such as RNA interference (RNAi or small-molecule screens. As such, efficient computational methods are required for automatic cellular phenotype identification capable of dealing with large image data sets. In this paper we investigated an efficient method for the extraction of quantitative features from images by combining second order statistics, or Haralick features, with curvelet transform. A random subspace based classifier ensemble with multiple layer perceptron (MLP as the base classifier was then exploited for classification. Haralick features estimate image properties related to second-order statistics based on the grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM, which has been extensively used for various image processing applications. The curvelet transform has a more sparse representation of the image than wavelet, thus offering a description with higher time frequency resolution and high degree of directionality and anisotropy, which is particularly appropriate for many images rich with edges and curves. A combined feature description from Haralick feature and curvelet transform can further increase the accuracy of classification by taking their complementary information. We then investigate the applicability of the random subspace (RS ensemble method for phenotype classification based on microscopy images. A base classifier is trained with a RS sampled subset of the original feature set and the ensemble assigns a class label by majority voting. Results Experimental results on the phenotype recognition from three benchmarking image sets including HeLa, CHO and RNAi show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The combined feature is better than any individual one in the classification accuracy. The
Space Applications for Ensemble Detection and Analysis Project
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Detection is both a measurement technique and analysis tool. Like a prism that separates light into spectral bands, an ensemble detector mixes a signal with...
Gradient Flow Analysis on MILC HISQ Ensembles
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brown, Nathan [Washington U., St. Louis; Bazavov, Alexei [Brookhaven; Bernard, Claude [Washington U., St. Louis; DeTar, Carleton [Utah U.; Foley, Justin [Utah U.; Gottlieb, Steven [Indiana U.; Heller, Urs M. [APS, New York; Hetrick, J. E. [U. Pacific, Stockton; Komijani, Javad [Washington U., St. Louis; Laiho, Jack [Syracuse U.; Levkova, Ludmila [Utah U.; Oktay, M. B. [Utah U.; Sugar, Robert [UC, Santa Barbara; Toussaint, Doug [Arizona U.; Van de Water, Ruth S. [Fermilab; Zhou, Ran [Fermilab
2014-11-14
We report on a preliminary scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ are computed using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of $\\langle E \\rangle$ on each ensemble. Then both scales and the meson masses $aM_\\pi$ and $aM_K$ are adjusted for mistunings in the charm mass. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor series ansatz in the lattice spacing, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. Our preliminary results are $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1422(7)$fm and $w_0 = 0.1732(10)$fm. We also find the continuum mass-dependence of $w_0$.
Gradient Flow Analysis on MILC HISQ Ensembles
Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Hetrick, J E; Komijani, J; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Oktay, M; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S; Zhou, R
2014-01-01
We report on a preliminary scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ are computed using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of $\\langle E \\rangle$ on each ensemble. Then both scales and the meson masses $aM_\\pi$ and $aM_K$ are adjusted for mistunings in the charm mass. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor series ansatz in the lattice spacing, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. Our preliminary results are $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1422(7)$fm and $w_0 = 0.1732(10)$fm. We also find the continuum mass-dependence of $w_0$.
Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
V S Prasad; C J Johny
2016-04-01
Performance of a hybrid assimilation system combining 3D Var based NGFS (NCMRWF Global ForecastSystem) with ETR (Ensemble Transform with Rescaling) based Global Ensemble Forecast (GEFS) ofresolution T-190L28 is investigated. The experiment is conducted for a period of one week in June 2013and forecast skills over different spatial domains are compared with respect to mean analysis state.Rainfall forecast is verified over Indian region against combined observations of IMD and NCMRWF.Hybrid assimilation produced marginal improvements in overall forecast skill in comparison with 3DVar. Hybrid experiment made significant improvement in wind forecasts in all the regions on verificationagainst mean analysis. The verification of forecasts with radiosonde observations also show improvementin wind forecasts with the hybrid assimilation. On verification against observations, hybrid experimentshows more improvement in temperature and wind forecasts at upper levels. Both hybrid and operational3D Var failed in prediction of extreme rainfall event over Uttarakhand on 17 June, 2013.
Analysis of mesoscale forecasts using ensemble methods
Gross, Markus
2016-01-01
Mesoscale forecasts are now routinely performed as elements of operational forecasts and their outputs do appear convincing. However, despite their realistic appearance at times the comparison to observations is less favorable. At the grid scale these forecasts often do not compare well with observations. This is partly due to the chaotic system underlying the weather. Another key problem is that it is impossible to evaluate the risk of making decisions based on these forecasts because they do not provide a measure of confidence. Ensembles provide this information in the ensemble spread and quartiles. However, running global ensembles at the meso or sub mesoscale involves substantial computational resources. National centers do run such ensembles, but the subject of this publication is a method which requires significantly less computation. The ensemble enhanced mesoscale system presented here aims not at the creation of an improved mesoscale forecast model. Also it is not to create an improved ensemble syste...
Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio
2012-03-01
proposed to explain the characteristics and the successful application of ensembles to different application domains. For instance, Allwein, Schapire, and Singer interpreted the improved generalization capabilities of ensembles of learning machines in the framework of large margin classifiers [4,177], Kleinberg in the context of stochastic discrimination theory [112], and Breiman and Friedman in the light of the bias-variance analysis borrowed from classical statistics [21,70]. Empirical studies showed that both in classification and regression problems, ensembles improve on single learning machines, and moreover large experimental studies compared the effectiveness of different ensemble methods on benchmark data sets [10,11,49,188]. The interest in this research area is motivated also by the availability of very fast computers and networks of workstations at a relatively low cost that allow the implementation and the experimentation of complex ensemble methods using off-the-shelf computer platforms. However, as explained in Section 26.2 there are deeper reasons to use ensembles of learning machines, motivated by the intrinsic characteristics of the ensemble methods. The main aim of this chapter is to introduce ensemble methods and to provide an overview and a bibliography of the main areas of research, without pretending to be exhaustive or to explain the detailed characteristics of each ensemble method. The paper is organized as follows. In the next section, the main theoretical and practical reasons for combining multiple learners are introduced. Section 26.3 depicts the main taxonomies on ensemble methods proposed in the literature. In Section 26.4 and 26.5, we present an overview of the main supervised ensemble methods reported in the literature, adopting a simple taxonomy, originally proposed in Ref. [201]. Applications of ensemble methods are only marginally considered, but a specific section on some relevant applications of ensemble methods in astronomy and
An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. AghaKouchak
2013-02-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.
Ensemble vs. time averages in financial time series analysis
Seemann, Lars; Hua, Jia-Chen; McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.
2012-12-01
Empirical analysis of financial time series suggests that the underlying stochastic dynamics are not only non-stationary, but also exhibit non-stationary increments. However, financial time series are commonly analyzed using the sliding interval technique that assumes stationary increments. We propose an alternative approach that is based on an ensemble over trading days. To determine the effects of time averaging techniques on analysis outcomes, we create an intraday activity model that exhibits periodic variable diffusion dynamics and we assess the model data using both ensemble and time averaging techniques. We find that ensemble averaging techniques detect the underlying dynamics correctly, whereas sliding intervals approaches fail. As many traded assets exhibit characteristic intraday volatility patterns, our work implies that ensemble averages approaches will yield new insight into the study of financial markets’ dynamics.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wohling, Thomas [NON LANL
2008-01-01
Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.
Analysis and optimization of weighted ensemble sampling
Aristoff, David
2016-01-01
We give a mathematical framework for weighted ensemble (WE) sampling, a binning and resampling technique for efficiently computing probabilities in molecular dynamics. We prove that WE sampling is unbiased in a very general setting that includes adaptive binning. We show that when WE is used for stationary calculations in tandem with a Markov state model (MSM), the MSM can be used to optimize the allocation of replicas in the bins.
An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. AghaKouchak
2012-06-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this model, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The model includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for not only hydrological processes, but also for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity.
Ensemble Methods in Data Mining Improving Accuracy Through Combining Predictions
Seni, Giovanni
2010-01-01
This book is aimed at novice and advanced analytic researchers and practitioners -- especially in Engineering, Statistics, and Computer Science. Those with little exposure to ensembles will learn why and how to employ this breakthrough method, and advanced practitioners will gain insight into building even more powerful models. Throughout, snippets of code in R are provided to illustrate the algorithms described and to encourage the reader to try the techniques. The authors are industry experts in data mining and machine learning who are also adjunct professors and popular speakers. Although e
Nonlinear reaction coordinate analysis in the reweighted path ensemble
Lechner, W.; Rogal, J.; Juraszek, J.; Ensing, B.; Bolhuis, P.G.
2010-01-01
We present a flexible nonlinear reaction coordinate analysis method for the transition path ensemble based on the likelihood maximization approach developed by Peters and Trout [J. Chem. Phys. 125, 054108 (2006)] . By parametrizing the reaction coordinate by a string of images in a collective variab
Haque, Mohammad Nazmul; Noman, Nasimul; Berretta, Regina; Moscato, Pablo
2016-01-01
Classification of datasets with imbalanced sample distributions has always been a challenge. In general, a popular approach for enhancing classification performance is the construction of an ensemble of classifiers. However, the performance of an ensemble is dependent on the choice of constituent base classifiers. Therefore, we propose a genetic algorithm-based search method for finding the optimum combination from a pool of base classifiers to form a heterogeneous ensemble. The algorithm, called GA-EoC, utilises 10 fold-cross validation on training data for evaluating the quality of each candidate ensembles. In order to combine the base classifiers decision into ensemble's output, we used the simple and widely used majority voting approach. The proposed algorithm, along with the random sub-sampling approach to balance the class distribution, has been used for classifying class-imbalanced datasets. Additionally, if a feature set was not available, we used the (α, β) - k Feature Set method to select a better subset of features for classification. We have tested GA-EoC with three benchmarking datasets from the UCI-Machine Learning repository, one Alzheimer's disease dataset and a subset of the PubFig database of Columbia University. In general, the performance of the proposed method on the chosen datasets is robust and better than that of the constituent base classifiers and many other well-known ensembles. Based on our empirical study we claim that a genetic algorithm is a superior and reliable approach to heterogeneous ensemble construction and we expect that the proposed GA-EoC would perform consistently in other cases.
Maximization of seasonal forecasts performance combining Grand Multi-Model Ensembles
Alessandri, Andrea; De Felice, Matteo; Catalano, Franco; Lee, Doo Young; Yoo, Jin Ho; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin
2014-05-01
Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model errors. Previous works suggested that the potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplify with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. In this work we combine the two Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs) independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (CliPAS/APCC) communities. To this aim, all the possible multi-model combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from CliPAS/APCC have been evaluated. The grand ENSEMBLES-CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model enhances significantly the skill compared to previous estimates from the contributing MMEs. The combinations of SPSs maximizing the skill that is currently attainable for specific predictands/phenomena is evaluated. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and CliPAS/APCC models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The number and selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration. As an example for the tropical Pacific, the maximum performance is obtained with only the combination of 5-to-6 SPSs from the grand ENSEMBLES-CliPAS/APCC MME. With particular focus over Tropical Pacific, the relationship between performance and bias of the grand-MME combinations is evaluated. The skill of the grand-MME combinations over Euro-Mediterranean and East-Asia regions is further evaluated as a function of the capability of the selected contributing SPSs to forecast anomalies of the Polar/Siberian highs during winter and of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation during summer. Our results indicate that, combining SPSs from independent MME sources is a good
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sebastian Sippel
2015-09-01
In conclusion, our study shows that EVT and empirical estimates based on numerical simulations can indeed be used to productively inform each other, for instance to derive appropriate EVT parameters for short observational time series. Further, the combination of ensemble simulations with EVT allows us to significantly reduce the number of simulations needed for statements about the tails.
Tallarida, Ronald J
2010-01-01
This chapter describes quantitative methodology that is directed toward assessing interactions between a combination of agonist drugs that individually produce overtly similar effects. Drugs administered in combination may show exaggerated, reduced or predictable effects that are dependent on the specific drug pair and the doses of t h e constituents. The basisfor quantitating these unusual interactions is the concept of dose equivalence which, in turn, is determined from the individual drug dose-effect relations. A common analytical procedure that follows from dose equivalence uses a graph termed an isobologram. We present here an overview of the isobologram, its use and certain related methods that apply to classifying various drug interactions.
Zanchettin, D.; Bothe, O.; Rubino, A.; Jungclaus, J. H.
2016-08-01
We assess internally-generated climate variability expressed by a multi-model ensemble of unperturbed climate simulations. We focus on basin-scale annual-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from twenty multicentennial pre-industrial control simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Ensemble spatial patterns of regional modes of variability and ensemble (cross-)wavelet-based phase-frequency diagrams of corresponding paired indices summarize the ensemble characteristics of inter-basin and regional-to-global SST interactions on a broad range of timescales. Results reveal that tropical and North Pacific SSTs are a source of simulated interannual global SST variability. The North Atlantic-average SST fluctuates in rough co-phase with the global-average SST on multidecadal timescales, which makes it difficult to discern the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) signal from the global signal. The two leading modes of tropical and North Pacific SST variability converge towards co-phase in the multi-model ensemble, indicating that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) results from a combination of tropical and extra-tropical processes. No robust inter- or multi-decadal inter-basin SST interaction arises from our ensemble analysis between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, though specific phase-locked fluctuations occur between Pacific and Atlantic modes of SST variability in individual simulations and/or periods within individual simulations. The multidecadal modulation of PDO by the AMV identified in observations appears to be a recurrent but not typical feature of ensemble-simulated internal variability. Understanding the mechanism(s) and circumstances favoring such inter-basin SST phasing and related uncertainties in their simulated representation could help constraining uncertainty in decadal climate predictions.
Wu, Zhiyong; Wu, Juan; Lu, Guihua
2016-09-01
Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an effective tool for providing advanced flood forecasting. However, the uncertainties in precipitation forecasts are still considerable. To address uncertainties, a one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system, with a combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting, has been developed. It consists of three high-resolution single models and four sets of ensemble forecasts from the THORPEX Interactive Grande Global Ensemble database. The former provides higher forecasting accuracy, while the latter provides the range of forecasts. The combined precipitation forecasting was then implemented to drive the Chinese National Flood Forecasting System in the 2007 and 2008 Huai River flood hindcast analysis. The encouraging results demonstrated that the system can clearly give a set of forecasting hydrographs for a flood event and has a promising relative stability in discharge peaks and timing for warning purposes. It not only gives a deterministic prediction, but also generates probability forecasts. Even though the signal was not persistent until four days before the peak discharge was observed in the 2007 flood event, the visualization based on threshold exceedance provided clear and concise essential warning information at an early stage. Forecasters could better prepare for the possibility of a flood at an early stage, and then issue an actual warning if the signal strengthened. This process may provide decision support for civil protection authorities. In future studies, different weather forecasts will be assigned various weight coefficients to represent the covariance of predictors and the extremes of distributions.
Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad
2015-12-08
Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.
Comprehensive Study on Lexicon-based Ensemble Classification Sentiment Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Łukasz Augustyniak
2015-12-01
Full Text Available We propose a novel method for counting sentiment orientation that outperforms supervised learning approaches in time and memory complexity and is not statistically significantly different from them in accuracy. Our method consists of a novel approach to generating unigram, bigram and trigram lexicons. The proposed method, called frequentiment, is based on calculating the frequency of features (words in the document and averaging their impact on the sentiment score as opposed to documents that do not contain these features. Afterwards, we use ensemble classification to improve the overall accuracy of the method. What is important is that the frequentiment-based lexicons with sentiment threshold selection outperform other popular lexicons and some supervised learners, while being 3–5 times faster than the supervised approach. We compare 37 methods (lexicons, ensembles with lexicon’s predictions as input and supervised learners applied to 10 Amazon review data sets and provide the first statistical comparison of the sentiment annotation methods that include ensemble approaches. It is one of the most comprehensive comparisons of domain sentiment analysis in the literature.
Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad
2015-10-02
Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.
Bounova, Gergana; de Weck, Olivier
2012-01-01
This study is an overview of network topology metrics and a computational approach to analyzing graph topology via multiple-metric analysis on graph ensembles. The paper cautions against studying single metrics or combining disparate graph ensembles from different domains to extract global patterns. This is because there often exists considerable diversity among graphs that share any given topology metric, patterns vary depending on the underlying graph construction model, and many real data sets are not actual statistical ensembles. As real data examples, we present five airline ensembles, comprising temporal snapshots of networks of similar topology. Wikipedia language networks are shown as an example of a nontemporal ensemble. General patterns in metric correlations, as well as exceptions, are discussed by representing the data sets via hierarchically clustered correlation heat maps. Most topology metrics are not independent and their correlation patterns vary across ensembles. In general, density-related metrics and graph distance-based metrics cluster and the two groups are orthogonal to each other. Metrics based on degree-degree correlations have the highest variance across ensembles and cluster the different data sets on par with principal component analysis. Namely, the degree correlation, the s metric, their elasticities, and the rich club moments appear to be most useful in distinguishing topologies.
Ovis: A Framework for Visual Analysis of Ocean Forecast Ensembles.
Höllt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Zhan, Peng; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D; Hadwiger, Markus
2014-08-01
We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea.
Ovis: A framework for visual analysis of ocean forecast ensembles
Hollt, Thomas
2014-08-01
We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea. © 1995-2012 IEEE.
Ensemble analysis of adaptive compressed genome sequencing strategies
2014-01-01
Background Acquiring genomes at single-cell resolution has many applications such as in the study of microbiota. However, deep sequencing and assembly of all of millions of cells in a sample is prohibitively costly. A property that can come to rescue is that deep sequencing of every cell should not be necessary to capture all distinct genomes, as the majority of cells are biological replicates. Biologically important samples are often sparse in that sense. In this paper, we propose an adaptive compressed method, also known as distilled sensing, to capture all distinct genomes in a sparse microbial community with reduced sequencing effort. As opposed to group testing in which the number of distinct events is often constant and sparsity is equivalent to rarity of an event, sparsity in our case means scarcity of distinct events in comparison to the data size. Previously, we introduced the problem and proposed a distilled sensing solution based on the breadth first search strategy. We simulated the whole process which constrained our ability to study the behavior of the algorithm for the entire ensemble due to its computational intensity. Results In this paper, we modify our previous breadth first search strategy and introduce the depth first search strategy. Instead of simulating the entire process, which is intractable for a large number of experiments, we provide a dynamic programming algorithm to analyze the behavior of the method for the entire ensemble. The ensemble analysis algorithm recursively calculates the probability of capturing every distinct genome and also the expected total sequenced nucleotides for a given population profile. Our results suggest that the expected total sequenced nucleotides grows proportional to log of the number of cells and proportional linearly with the number of distinct genomes. The probability of missing a genome depends on its abundance and the ratio of its size over the maximum genome size in the sample. The modified resource
Effective Visualization of Temporal Ensembles.
Hao, Lihua; Healey, Christopher G; Bass, Steffen A
2016-01-01
An ensemble is a collection of related datasets, called members, built from a series of runs of a simulation or an experiment. Ensembles are large, temporal, multidimensional, and multivariate, making them difficult to analyze. Another important challenge is visualizing ensembles that vary both in space and time. Initial visualization techniques displayed ensembles with a small number of members, or presented an overview of an entire ensemble, but without potentially important details. Recently, researchers have suggested combining these two directions, allowing users to choose subsets of members to visualization. This manual selection process places the burden on the user to identify which members to explore. We first introduce a static ensemble visualization system that automatically helps users locate interesting subsets of members to visualize. We next extend the system to support analysis and visualization of temporal ensembles. We employ 3D shape comparison, cluster tree visualization, and glyph based visualization to represent different levels of detail within an ensemble. This strategy is used to provide two approaches for temporal ensemble analysis: (1) segment based ensemble analysis, to capture important shape transition time-steps, clusters groups of similar members, and identify common shape changes over time across multiple members; and (2) time-step based ensemble analysis, which assumes ensemble members are aligned in time by combining similar shapes at common time-steps. Both approaches enable users to interactively visualize and analyze a temporal ensemble from different perspectives at different levels of detail. We demonstrate our techniques on an ensemble studying matter transition from hadronic gas to quark-gluon plasma during gold-on-gold particle collisions.
Choi, Jae Young; Kim, Dae Hoe; Plataniotis, Konstantinos N.; Ro, Yong Man
2014-07-01
We propose a novel computer-aided detection (CAD) framework of breast masses in mammography. To increase detection sensitivity for various types of mammographic masses, we propose the combined use of different detection algorithms. In particular, we develop a region-of-interest combination mechanism that integrates detection information gained from unsupervised and supervised detection algorithms. Also, to significantly reduce the number of false-positive (FP) detections, the new ensemble classification algorithm is developed. Extensive experiments have been conducted on a benchmark mammogram database. Results show that our combined detection approach can considerably improve the detection sensitivity with a small loss of FP rate, compared to representative detection algorithms previously developed for mammographic CAD systems. The proposed ensemble classification solution also has a dramatic impact on the reduction of FP detections; as much as 70% (from 15 to 4.5 per image) at only cost of 4.6% sensitivity loss (from 90.0% to 85.4%). Moreover, our proposed CAD method performs as well or better (70.7% and 80.0% per 1.5 and 3.5 FPs per image respectively) than the results of mammography CAD algorithms previously reported in the literature.
Onishi, Akinari; Natsume, Kiyohisa
2013-01-01
This paper demonstrates a better classification performance of an ensemble classifier using a regularized linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI). The ensemble classifier with an LDA is sensitive to the lack of training data because covariance matrices are estimated imprecisely. One of the solution against the lack of training data is to employ a regularized LDA. Thus we employed the regularized LDA for the ensemble classifier of the P300-based BCI. The principal component analysis (PCA) was used for the dimension reduction. As a result, an ensemble regularized LDA classifier showed significantly better classification performance than an ensemble un-regularized LDA classifier. Therefore the proposed ensemble regularized LDA classifier is robust against the lack of training data.
Ensemble approach combining multiple methods improves human transcription start site prediction
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Dineen, David G
2010-11-30
Abstract Background The computational prediction of transcription start sites is an important unsolved problem. Some recent progress has been made, but many promoters, particularly those not associated with CpG islands, are still difficult to locate using current methods. These methods use different features and training sets, along with a variety of machine learning techniques and result in different prediction sets. Results We demonstrate the heterogeneity of current prediction sets, and take advantage of this heterogeneity to construct a two-level classifier (\\'Profisi Ensemble\\') using predictions from 7 programs, along with 2 other data sources. Support vector machines using \\'full\\' and \\'reduced\\' data sets are combined in an either\\/or approach. We achieve a 14% increase in performance over the current state-of-the-art, as benchmarked by a third-party tool. Conclusions Supervised learning methods are a useful way to combine predictions from diverse sources.
Time and ensemble averaging in time series analysis
Latka, Miroslaw; Jernajczyk, Wojciech; West, Bruce J
2010-01-01
In many applications expectation values are calculated by partitioning a single experimental time series into an ensemble of data segments of equal length. Such single trajectory ensemble (STE) is a counterpart to a multiple trajectory ensemble (MTE) used whenever independent measurements or realizations of a stochastic process are available. The equivalence of STE and MTE for stationary systems was postulated by Wang and Uhlenbeck in their classic paper on Brownian motion (Rev. Mod. Phys. 17, 323 (1945)) but surprisingly has not yet been proved. Using the stationary and ergodic paradigm of statistical physics -- the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) Langevin equation, we revisit Wang and Uhlenbeck's postulate. In particular, we find that the variance of the solution of this equation is different for these two ensembles. While the variance calculated using the MTE quantifies the spreading of independent trajectories originating from the same initial point, the variance for STE measures the spreading of two correlated r...
Rubin, Juli I.; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Hansen, James A.; Anderson, Jeffrey L.; Collins, Nancy; Hoar, Timothy J.; Hogan, Timothy; Lynch, Peng; McLay, Justin; Reynolds, Carolyn A.; Sessions, Walter R.; Westphal, Douglas L.; Zhang, Jianglong
2016-03-01
An ensemble-based forecast and data assimilation system has been developed for use in Navy aerosol forecasting. The system makes use of an ensemble of the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (ENAAPS) at 1 × 1°, combined with an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter from NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The base ENAAPS-DART system discussed in this work utilizes the Navy Operational Global Analysis Prediction System (NOGAPS) meteorological ensemble to drive offline NAAPS simulations coupled with the DART ensemble Kalman filter architecture to assimilate bias-corrected MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrievals. This work outlines the optimization of the 20-member ensemble system, including consideration of meteorology and source-perturbed ensemble members as well as covariance inflation. Additional tests with 80 meteorological and source members were also performed. An important finding of this work is that an adaptive covariance inflation method, which has not been previously tested for aerosol applications, was found to perform better than a temporally and spatially constant covariance inflation. Problems were identified with the constant inflation in regions with limited observational coverage. The second major finding of this work is that combined meteorology and aerosol source ensembles are superior to either in isolation and that both are necessary to produce a robust system with sufficient spread in the ensemble members as well as realistic correlation fields for spreading observational information. The inclusion of aerosol source ensembles improves correlation fields for large aerosol source regions, such as smoke and dust in Africa, by statistically separating freshly emitted from transported aerosol species. However, the source ensembles have limited efficacy during long-range transport. Conversely, the meteorological ensemble generates sufficient spread at the synoptic scale to enable observational impact through the ensemble data
Xian, Lu; He, Kaijian; Lai, Kin Keung
2016-07-01
In recent years, the increasing level of volatility of the gold price has received the increasing level of attention from the academia and industry alike. Due to the complexity and significant fluctuations observed in the gold market, however, most of current approaches have failed to produce robust and consistent modeling and forecasting results. Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition (EEMD) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) are novel data analysis methods that can deal with nonlinear and non-stationary time series. This study introduces a new methodology which combines the two methods and applies it to gold price analysis. This includes three steps: firstly, the original gold price series is decomposed into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) by EEMD. Secondly, IMFs are further processed with unimportant ones re-grouped. Then a new set of data called Virtual Intrinsic Mode Functions (VIMFs) is reconstructed. Finally, ICA is used to decompose VIMFs into statistically Independent Components (ICs). The decomposition results reveal that the gold price series can be represented by the linear combination of ICs. Furthermore, the economic meanings of ICs are analyzed and discussed in detail, according to the change trend and ICs' transformation coefficients. The analyses not only explain the inner driving factors and their impacts but also conduct in-depth analysis on how these factors affect gold price. At the same time, regression analysis has been conducted to verify our analysis. Results from the empirical studies in the gold markets show that the EEMD-ICA serve as an effective technique for gold price analysis from a new perspective.
Comparison of four ensemble methods combining regional climate simulations over Asia
Feng, Jinming; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Fu, Congbin; Tang, Jianping; Sato, Yasuo; Kato, Hisashi; McGregor, John L.; Mabuchi, Kazuo
2011-02-01
A number of uncertainties exist in climate simulation because the results of climate models are influenced by factors such as their dynamic framework, physical processes, initial and driving fields, and horizontal and vertical resolution. The uncertainties of the model results may be reduced, and the credibility can be improved by employing multi-model ensembles. In this paper, multi-model ensemble results using 10-year simulations of five regional climate models (RCMs) from December 1988 to November 1998 over Asia are presented and compared. The simulation results are derived from phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (RMIP) for Asia. Using the methods of the arithmetic mean, the weighted mean, multivariate linear regression, and singular value decomposition, the ensembles for temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure are carried out. The results show that the multi-RCM ensembles outperform the single RCMs in many aspects. Among the four ensemble methods used, the multivariate linear regression, based on the minimization of the root mean square errors, significantly improved the ensemble results. With regard to the spatial distribution of the mean climate, the ensemble result for temperature was better than that for precipitation. With an increasing number of models used in the ensembles, the ensemble results were more accurate. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble is an efficient approach to improve the results of regional climate simulations.
Heinrich, Georg; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas
2014-01-01
This study aims at sharpening the existing knowledge of expected seasonal mean climate change and its uncertainty over Europe for the two key climate variables air temperature and precipitation amount until the mid-twentyfirst century. For this purpose, we assess and compensate the global climate model (GCM) sampling bias of the ENSEMBLES regional climate model (RCM) projections by combining them with the full set of the CMIP3 GCM ensemble. We first apply a cross-validation in order to assess the skill of different statistical data reconstruction methods in reproducing ensemble mean and standard deviation. We then select the most appropriate reconstruction method in order to fill the missing values of the ENSEMBLES simulation matrix and further extend the matrix by all available CMIP3 GCM simulations forced by the A1B emission scenario. Cross-validation identifies a randomized scaling approach as superior in reconstructing the ensemble spread. Errors in ensemble mean and standard deviation are mostly less than 0.1 K and 1.0 % for air temperature and precipitation amount, respectively. Reconstruction of the missing values reveals that expected seasonal mean climate change of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections is not significantly biased and that the associated uncertainty is not underestimated due to sampling of only a few driving GCMs. In contrast, the spread of the extended simulation matrix is partly significantly lower, sharpening our knowledge about future climate change over Europe by reducing uncertainty in some regions. Furthermore, this study gives substantial weight to recent climate change impact studies based on the ENSEMBLES projections, since it confirms the robustness of the climate forcing of these studies concerning GCM sampling.
Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis Forecast of Temperature
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) temperature forecast is a 90-day (seasonal) outlook of US surface temperature anomalies. The ECCA uses Canonical...
Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset documents the source of the data analyzed in the manuscript " Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII...
WONKA: objective novel complex analysis for ensembles of protein–ligand structures
Bradley, AR; Wall, ID; von Delft, F.; Green, DVS; Deane, CM; Marsden, BD
2015-01-01
WONKA is a tool for the systematic analysis of an ensemble of protein-ligand structures. It makes the identification of conserved and unusual features within such an ensemble straightforward. WONKA uses an intuitive workflow to process structural co-ordinates. Ligand and protein features are summarised and then presented within an interactive web application. WONKA's power in consolidating and summarising large amounts of data is described through the analysis of three bromodomain datasets. F...
Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I. Kioutsioukis
2016-12-01
level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each station's best deterministic model at no more than 60 % of the sites, indicating a combination of members with unbalanced skill difference and error dependence for the rest. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way. The skill improvements were higher for O3 and lower for PM10, associated with the extent of potential changes in the joint distribution of accuracy and diversity in the ensembles. The skill enhancement was superior using the weighting scheme, but the training period required to acquire representative weights was longer compared to the sub-selecting schemes. Further development of the method is discussed in the conclusion.
Fox, Neil I.; Micheas, Athanasios C.; Peng, Yuqiang
2016-07-01
This paper introduces the use of Bayesian full Procrustes shape analysis in object-oriented meteorological applications. In particular, the Procrustes methodology is used to generate mean forecast precipitation fields from a set of ensemble forecasts. This approach has advantages over other ensemble averaging techniques in that it can produce a forecast that retains the morphological features of the precipitation structures and present the range of forecast outcomes represented by the ensemble. The production of the ensemble mean avoids the problems of smoothing that result from simple pixel or cell averaging, while producing credible sets that retain information on ensemble spread. Also in this paper, the full Bayesian Procrustes scheme is used as an object verification tool for precipitation forecasts. This is an extension of a previously presented Procrustes shape analysis based verification approach into a full Bayesian format designed to handle the verification of precipitation forecasts that match objects from an ensemble of forecast fields to a single truth image. The methodology is tested on radar reflectivity nowcasts produced in the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) by varying parameters in the K-means cluster tracking scheme.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiang Tianzi
2004-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Microarray experiments are becoming a powerful tool for clinical diagnosis, as they have the potential to discover gene expression patterns that are characteristic for a particular disease. To date, this problem has received most attention in the context of cancer research, especially in tumor classification. Various feature selection methods and classifier design strategies also have been generally used and compared. However, most published articles on tumor classification have applied a certain technique to a certain dataset, and recently several researchers compared these techniques based on several public datasets. But, it has been verified that differently selected features reflect different aspects of the dataset and some selected features can obtain better solutions on some certain problems. At the same time, faced with a large amount of microarray data with little knowledge, it is difficult to find the intrinsic characteristics using traditional methods. In this paper, we attempt to introduce a combinational feature selection method in conjunction with ensemble neural networks to generally improve the accuracy and robustness of sample classification. Results We validate our new method on several recent publicly available datasets both with predictive accuracy of testing samples and through cross validation. Compared with the best performance of other current methods, remarkably improved results can be obtained using our new strategy on a wide range of different datasets. Conclusions Thus, we conclude that our methods can obtain more information in microarray data to get more accurate classification and also can help to extract the latent marker genes of the diseases for better diagnosis and treatment.
A MITgcm/DART ensemble analysis and prediction system with application to the Gulf of Mexico
Hoteit, Ibrahim
2013-09-01
This paper describes the development of an advanced ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based ocean data assimilation system for prediction of the evolution of the loop current in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The system integrates the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) assimilation package with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ocean general circulation model (MITgcm). The MITgcm/DART system supports the assimilation of a wide range of ocean observations and uses an ensemble approach to solve the nonlinear assimilation problems. The GoM prediction system was implemented with an eddy-resolving 1/10th degree configuration of the MITgcm. Assimilation experiments were performed over a 6-month period between May and October during a strong loop current event in 1999. The model was sequentially constrained with weekly satellite sea surface temperature and altimetry data. Experiments results suggest that the ensemble-based assimilation system shows a high predictive skill in the GoM, with estimated ensemble spread mainly concentrated around the front of the loop current. Further analysis of the system estimates demonstrates that the ensemble assimilation accurately reproduces the observed features without imposing any negative impact on the dynamical balance of the system. Results from sensitivity experiments with respect to the ensemble filter parameters are also presented and discussed. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.
Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data
Kioutsioukis, Ioannis; Im, Ulas; Solazzo, Efisio; Bianconi, Roberto; Badia, Alba; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baró, Rocío; Bellasio, Roberto; Brunner, Dominik; Chemel, Charles; Curci, Gabriele; Denier van der Gon, Hugo; Flemming, Johannes; Forkel, Renate; Giordano, Lea; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro; Hirtl, Marcus; Jorba, Oriol; Manders-Groot, Astrid; Neal, Lucy; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guidio; San Jose, Roberto; Savage, Nicholas; Schroder, Wolfram; Sokhi, Ranjeet S.; Syrakov, Dimiter; Tuccella, Paolo; Werhahn, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, Stefano
2016-12-01
Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each station's best deterministic model at no more than 60 % of the sites, indicating a combination of members with unbalanced skill difference and error dependence for the rest. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way. The skill improvements were higher for O3 and lower for PM10, associated with the extent of potential changes in the joint distribution of accuracy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ruoyang Chen
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Since the CSI 300 index futures officially began trading on April 15, 2010, analysis and predictions of the price fluctuations of Chinese stock index futures prices have become a popular area of active research. In this paper, the Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD method is used to decompose the sequences of Chinese stock index futures prices into residue terms, low-frequency terms, and high-frequency terms to reveal the fluctuation characteristics over different time scales of the sequences. Then, the CEEMD method is combined with the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO algorithm-based Support Vector Machine (SVM model to forecast Chinese stock index futures prices. The empirical results show that the residue term determines the long-term trend of stock index futures prices. The low-frequency term, which represents medium-term price fluctuations, is mainly affected by policy regulations under the analysis of the Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS algorithm, whereas short-term market disequilibrium, which is represented by the high-frequency term, plays an important local role in stock index futures price fluctuations. In addition, in forecasting the daily or even intraday price data of Chinese stock index futures, the combination prediction model is superior to the single SVM model, which implies that the accuracy of predicting Chinese stock index futures prices will be improved by considering fluctuation characteristics in different time scales.
Gavrishchaka, Valeriy; Senyukova, Olga; Davis, Kristina
2015-01-01
Previously, we have proposed to use complementary complexity measures discovered by boosting-like ensemble learning for the enhancement of quantitative indicators dealing with necessarily short physiological time series. We have confirmed robustness of such multi-complexity measures for heart rate variability analysis with the emphasis on detection of emerging and intermittent cardiac abnormalities. Recently, we presented preliminary results suggesting that such ensemble-based approach could be also effective in discovering universal meta-indicators for early detection and convenient monitoring of neurological abnormalities using gait time series. Here, we argue and demonstrate that these multi-complexity ensemble measures for gait time series analysis could have significantly wider application scope ranging from diagnostics and early detection of physiological regime change to gait-based biometrics applications.
Statistical mechanical analysis of a hierarchical random code ensemble in signal processing
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Obuchi, Tomoyuki [Department of Earth and Space Science, Faculty of Science, Osaka University, Toyonaka 560-0043 (Japan); Takahashi, Kazutaka [Department of Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo 152-8551 (Japan); Takeda, Koujin, E-mail: takeda@sp.dis.titech.ac.jp [Department of Computational Intelligence and Systems Science, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama 226-8502 (Japan)
2011-02-25
We study a random code ensemble with a hierarchical structure, which is closely related to the generalized random energy model with discrete energy values. Based on this correspondence, we analyze the hierarchical random code ensemble by using the replica method in two situations: lossy data compression and channel coding. For both the situations, the exponents of large deviation analysis characterizing the performance of the ensemble, the distortion rate of lossy data compression and the error exponent of channel coding in Gallager's formalism, are accessible by a generating function of the generalized random energy model. We discuss that the transitions of those exponents observed in the preceding work can be interpreted as phase transitions with respect to the replica number. We also show that the replica symmetry breaking plays an essential role in these transitions.
WONKA: objective novel complex analysis for ensembles of protein-ligand structures.
Bradley, A R; Wall, I D; von Delft, F; Green, D V S; Deane, C M; Marsden, B D
2015-10-01
WONKA is a tool for the systematic analysis of an ensemble of protein-ligand structures. It makes the identification of conserved and unusual features within such an ensemble straightforward. WONKA uses an intuitive workflow to process structural co-ordinates. Ligand and protein features are summarised and then presented within an interactive web application. WONKA's power in consolidating and summarising large amounts of data is described through the analysis of three bromodomain datasets. Furthermore, and in contrast to many current methods, WONKA relates analysis to individual ligands, from which we find unusual and erroneous binding modes. Finally the use of WONKA as an annotation tool to share observations about structures is demonstrated. WONKA is freely available to download and install locally or can be used online at http://wonka.sgc.ox.ac.uk.
Zhao, Huawei
2009-01-01
A ZEMAX model was constructed to simulate a clinical trial of intraocular lenses (IOLs) based on a clinically oriented Monte Carlo ensemble analysis using postoperative ocular parameters. The purpose of this model is to test the feasibility of streamlining and optimizing both the design process and the clinical testing of IOLs. This optical ensemble analysis (OEA) is also validated. Simulated pseudophakic eyes were generated by using the tolerancing and programming features of ZEMAX optical design software. OEA methodology was verified by demonstrating that the results of clinical performance simulations were consistent with previously published clinical performance data using the same types of IOLs. From these results we conclude that the OEA method can objectively simulate the potential clinical trial performance of IOLs.
Pathway analysis in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: An ensemble approach.
Mooney, Michael A; McWeeney, Shannon K; Faraone, Stephen V; Hinney, Anke; Hebebrand, Johannes; Nigg, Joel T; Wilmot, Beth
2016-09-01
Despite a wealth of evidence for the role of genetics in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), specific and definitive genetic mechanisms have not been identified. Pathway analyses, a subset of gene-set analyses, extend the knowledge gained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) by providing functional context for genetic associations. However, there are numerous methods for association testing of gene sets and no real consensus regarding the best approach. The present study applied six pathway analysis methods to identify pathways associated with ADHD in two GWAS datasets from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Methods that utilize genotypes to model pathway-level effects identified more replicable pathway associations than methods using summary statistics. In addition, pathways implicated by more than one method were significantly more likely to replicate. A number of brain-relevant pathways, such as RhoA signaling, glycosaminoglycan biosynthesis, fibroblast growth factor receptor activity, and pathways containing potassium channel genes, were nominally significant by multiple methods in both datasets. These results support previous hypotheses about the role of regulation of neurotransmitter release, neurite outgrowth and axon guidance in contributing to the ADHD phenotype and suggest the value of cross-method convergence in evaluating pathway analysis results. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Chen, Jinglong; Zhang, Chunlin; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Zi, Yanyang; He, Shuilong; Yang, Zhe
2015-03-01
Satellite communication antennas are key devices of a measurement ship to support voice, data, fax and video integration services. Condition monitoring of mechanical equipment from the vibration measurement data is significant for guaranteeing safe operation and avoiding the unscheduled breakdown. So, condition monitoring system for ship-based satellite communication antennas is designed and developed. Planetary gearboxes play an important role in the transmission train of satellite communication antenna. However, condition monitoring of planetary gearbox still faces challenges due to complexity and weak condition feature. This paper provides a possibility for planetary gearbox condition monitoring by proposing ensemble a multiwavelet analysis method. Benefit from the property on multi-resolution analysis and the multiple wavelet basis functions, multiwavelet has the advantage over characterizing the non-stationary signal. In order to realize the accurate detection of the condition feature and multi-resolution analysis in the whole frequency band, adaptive multiwavelet basis function is constructed via increasing multiplicity and then vibration signal is processed by the ensemble multiwavelet transform. Finally, normalized ensemble multiwavelet transform information entropy is computed to describe the condition of planetary gearbox. The effectiveness of proposed method is first validated through condition monitoring of experimental planetary gearbox. Then this method is used for planetary gearbox condition monitoring of ship-based satellite communication antennas and the results support its feasibility.
Yu, Jianbo
2016-11-01
The vibration signals of faulty machine are generally non-stationary and nonlinear under those complicated working conditions. Thus, it is a big challenge to extract and select the effective features from vibration signals for machinery fault diagnosis. This paper proposes a new manifold learning algorithm, joint global and local/nonlocal discriminant analysis (GLNDA), which aims to extract effective intrinsic geometrical information from the given vibration data. Comparisons with other regular methods, principal component analysis (PCA), local preserving projection (LPP), linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and local LDA (LLDA), illustrate the superiority of GLNDA in machinery fault diagnosis. Based on the extracted information by GLNDA, a GLNDA-based Fisher discriminant rule (FDR) is put forward and applied to machinery fault diagnosis without additional recognizer construction procedure. By importing Bagging into GLNDA score-based feature selection and FDR, a novel manifold ensemble method (selective GLNDA ensemble, SE-GLNDA) is investigated for machinery fault diagnosis. The motivation for developing ensemble of manifold learning components is that it can achieve higher accuracy and applicability than single component in machinery fault diagnosis. The effectiveness of the SE-GLNDA-based fault diagnosis method has been verified by experimental results from bearing full life testers.
Luo, Xiaodong; Jakobsen, Morten; Nævdal, Geir
2016-01-01
In this work we propose an ensemble 4D seismic history matching framework for reservoir characterization. Compared to similar existing frameworks in reservoir engineering community, the proposed one consists of some relatively new ingredients, in terms of the type of seismic data in choice, wavelet multiresolution analysis for the chosen seismic data and related data noise estimation, and the use of recently developed iterative ensemble history matching algorithms. Typical seismic data used for history matching, such as acoustic impedance, are inverted quantities, whereas extra uncertainties may arise during the inversion processes. In the proposed framework we avoid such intermediate inversion processes. In addition, we also adopt wavelet-based sparse representation to reduce data size. Concretely, we use intercept and gradient attributes derived from amplitude versus angle (AVA) data, apply multilevel discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) to attribute data, and estimate noise level of resulting wavelet coeffici...
Popular Ensemble Methods: An Empirical Study
Maclin, R; 10.1613/jair.614
2011-01-01
An ensemble consists of a set of individually trained classifiers (such as neural networks or decision trees) whose predictions are combined when classifying novel instances. Previous research has shown that an ensemble is often more accurate than any of the single classifiers in the ensemble. Bagging (Breiman, 1996c) and Boosting (Freund and Shapire, 1996; Shapire, 1990) are two relatively new but popular methods for producing ensembles. In this paper we evaluate these methods on 23 data sets using both neural networks and decision trees as our classification algorithm. Our results clearly indicate a number of conclusions. First, while Bagging is almost always more accurate than a single classifier, it is sometimes much less accurate than Boosting. On the other hand, Boosting can create ensembles that are less accurate than a single classifier -- especially when using neural networks. Analysis indicates that the performance of the Boosting methods is dependent on the characteristics of the data set being exa...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Riccio
2007-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides.
We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b.
This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Riccio
2007-04-01
Full Text Available In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides.
We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b.
This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.
Aken, Bronwen L.; Achuthan, Premanand; Akanni, Wasiu; Amode, M. Ridwan; Bernsdorff, Friederike; Bhai, Jyothish; Billis, Konstantinos; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Cummins, Carla; Clapham, Peter; Gil, Laurent; Girón, Carlos García; Gordon, Leo; Hourlier, Thibaut; Hunt, Sarah E.; Janacek, Sophie H.; Juettemann, Thomas; Keenan, Stephen; Laird, Matthew R.; Lavidas, Ilias; Maurel, Thomas; McLaren, William; Moore, Benjamin; Murphy, Daniel N.; Nag, Rishi; Newman, Victoria; Nuhn, Michael; Ong, Chuang Kee; Parker, Anne; Patricio, Mateus; Riat, Harpreet Singh; Sheppard, Daniel; Sparrow, Helen; Taylor, Kieron; Thormann, Anja; Vullo, Alessandro; Walts, Brandon; Wilder, Steven P.; Zadissa, Amonida; Kostadima, Myrto; Martin, Fergal J.; Muffato, Matthieu; Perry, Emily; Ruffier, Magali; Staines, Daniel M.; Trevanion, Stephen J.; Cunningham, Fiona; Yates, Andrew; Zerbino, Daniel R.; Flicek, Paul
2017-01-01
Ensembl (www.ensembl.org) is a database and genome browser for enabling research on vertebrate genomes. We import, analyse, curate and integrate a diverse collection of large-scale reference data to create a more comprehensive view of genome biology than would be possible from any individual dataset. Our extensive data resources include evidence-based gene and regulatory region annotation, genome variation and gene trees. An accompanying suite of tools, infrastructure and programmatic access methods ensure uniform data analysis and distribution for all supported species. Together, these provide a comprehensive solution for large-scale and targeted genomics applications alike. Among many other developments over the past year, we have improved our resources for gene regulation and comparative genomics, and added CRISPR/Cas9 target sites. We released new browser functionality and tools, including improved filtering and prioritization of genome variation, Manhattan plot visualization for linkage disequilibrium and eQTL data, and an ontology search for phenotypes, traits and disease. We have also enhanced data discovery and access with a track hub registry and a selection of new REST end points. All Ensembl data are freely released to the scientific community and our source code is available via the open source Apache 2.0 license. PMID:27899575
Kanoga, Suguru; Mitsukura, Yasue
2015-01-01
To study an eye blink artifact rejection scheme from single-channel electroencephalographic (EEG) signals has been now a major challenge in the field of EEG signal processing. High removal performance is still needed to more strictly investigate pattern of EEG features. This paper proposes a new eye blink artifact rejection scheme from single-channel EEG signals by combining complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and independent component analysis (ICA). We compare the separation performance of our proposed scheme with existing schemes (wavelet-ICA, EMD-ICA, and EEMD-ICA) though real-life data by using signal-to-noise ratio. As a result, CEEMD-ICA showed high performance (11.86 dB) than all other schemes (10.78, 10.59, and 11.30 dB) in the ability of eye blink artifact removal.
Hybrid Data Assimilation without Ensemble Filtering
Todling, Ricardo; Akkraoui, Amal El
2014-01-01
The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is preparing to upgrade its three-dimensional variational system to a hybrid approach in which the ensemble is generated using a square-root ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the variational problem is solved using the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation system. As in most EnKF applications, we found it necessary to employ a combination of multiplicative and additive inflations, to compensate for sampling and modeling errors, respectively and, to maintain the small-member ensemble solution close to the variational solution; we also found it necessary to re-center the members of the ensemble about the variational analysis. During tuning of the filter we have found re-centering and additive inflation to play a considerably larger role than expected, particularly in a dual-resolution context when the variational analysis is ran at larger resolution than the ensemble. This led us to consider a hybrid strategy in which the members of the ensemble are generated by simply converting the variational analysis to the resolution of the ensemble and applying additive inflation, thus bypassing the EnKF. Comparisons of this, so-called, filter-free hybrid procedure with an EnKF-based hybrid procedure and a control non-hybrid, traditional, scheme show both hybrid strategies to provide equally significant improvement over the control; more interestingly, the filter-free procedure was found to give qualitatively similar results to the EnKF-based procedure.
Preparation of pseudopure state in nuclear spin ensemble using CNOT gates combination
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2002-01-01
Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) is one of the experimental schemes for quantum computation. Most initial state of quantum algorithm in NMR computation is the pseudopure state. Until now, there are several methods to prepare pseudopure state. This note, based on the idea of controlled-not (CNOT) gates combination, has analyzed the characteristics of this method in the odd- and even-qubit system. Also, we have designed the pulse sequence for a 4-qubit sample to obtain pseudopure state, and realized it in the experiment. This method reduces the complexity of experiment and gives a high signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio.
Sehgal, Vinit; Sridhar, Venkataramana; Tyagi, Aditya
2017-02-01
This study proposes a multi-wavelet Bayesian ensemble of two Land Surface Models (LSMs) using in-situ observations for accurate estimation of soil moisture for Contiguous United States (CONUS). In the absence of a continuous, accurate in-situ soil moisture dataset at high spatial resolution, an ensemble of Noah and Mosaic LSMs is derived by performing a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) of several wavelet-based multi-resolution regression models (WR) of the simulated soil moisture from the LSMs and in-situ volumetric soil moisture dataset obtained from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) field stations. This provides a proxy to the in-situ soil moisture dataset at 1/8th degree spatial resolution called Hybrid Soil Moisture (HSM) for three soil layers (1-10 cm, 10-40 cm and 40-100 cm) for the CONUS. The derived HSM is used further to study the layer-wise response of soil moisture to drought, highlighting the necessity of the ensemble approach and soil profile perspective for drought analysis. A correlation analysis between HSM, the long-term (PDSI, PHDI, SPI-9, SPI-12 and SPI-24) and the short-term (Palmer Z index, SPI-1 and SPI-6) drought indices is carried out for the nine climate regions of the U.S. indicating a higher sensitivity of soil moisture to drought conditions for the Southern U.S. Furthermore, a layer-wise soil moisture percentile approach is proposed and applied for drought reconstruction in CONUS with a focus on the Southern U.S. for the year 2011.
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition: Image Data Analysis with White-noise Reflection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Kopecký
2010-01-01
Full Text Available During the last decade, Zhaohua Wu and Norden E. Huang announced a new improvement of the original Empirical Mode Decomposition method (EMD. Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and its abbreviation EEMD represents a major improvement with great versatility and robustness in noisy data filtering. EEMD consists of sifting and making an ensemble of a white noise-added signal, and treats the mean value as the final true result. This is due to the use of a finite, not infinitesimal, amplitude of white noise which forces the ensemble to exhaust all possible solutions in the sifting process. These steps collate signals of different scale in a proper intrinsic mode function (IMF dictated by the dyadic filter bank. As EEMD is a time–space analysis method, the added white noise is averaged out with a sufficient number of trials. Here, the only persistent part that survives the averaging process is the signal component (original data, which is then treated as the true and more physically meaningful answer. The main purpose of adding white noise was to provide a uniform reference frame in the time–frequency space. The added noise collates the portion of the signal of comparable scale in a single IMF. Image data taken as time series is a non-stationary and nonlinear process to which the new proposed EEMD method can be fitted out. This paper reviews the new approach of using EEMD and demonstrates its use on the example of image data analysis, making use of some advantages of the statistical characteristics of white noise. This approach helps to deal with omnipresent noise.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve...
Analysis and Comparisons of Four Kinds of Ensemble Pulsar Time Algorithm%四种综合脉冲星时算法比较
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
仲崇霞; 杨廷高
2009-01-01
Wiener filtration algorithm are combined and a new ensemble pulsar time algorithm called the Wiener filtration analysis in wavelet domain is presented in this paper, which can remove the influence of noise more effectively. The pulsar timing residuals are decomposed to different components by wavelet. The influences of the atomic clock of different components are removed by Wiener filtration and then the ensemble pulsar time can be obtained by inverting the wavelet transform acting on these remains. The computed result indicates that the latter three algorithms are far better than the first one and the Wiener filtration analysis in wavelet domain could be the best one among all algorithms.%由单颗脉冲星定义的脉冲星时受多种噪声源的影响,其短期和长期稳定度都不够好.为了削弱这些噪声源对单脉冲星时的影响,可以采取合适的算法对多个单脉冲星时进行综合得到综合脉冲星时,从而提高综合脉冲星时的长期稳定度.文中介绍4种综合脉冲星时算法:经典加权算法、小波分析算法、维纳滤波算法和小波域中的维纳滤波算法,将这4种算法分别应用于Arecibo天文台对两颗毫秒脉冲星PSR B1855+09和PSRB1937+21观测得到的计时残差并作出比较.
A glacial systems model configured for large ensemble analysis of Antarctic deglaciation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Briggs
2013-04-01
Full Text Available This article describes the Memorial University of Newfoundland/Penn State University (MUN/PSU glacial systems model (GSM that has been developed specifically for large-ensemble data-constrained analysis of past Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Our approach emphasizes the introduction of a large set of model parameters to explicitly account for the uncertainties inherent in the modelling of such a complex system. At the core of the GSM is a 3-D thermo-mechanically coupled ice sheet model that solves both the shallow ice and shallow shelf approximations. This enables the different stress regimes of ice sheet, ice shelves, and ice streams to be represented. The grounding line is modelled through an analytical sub-grid flux parametrization. To this dynamical core the following have been added: a heavily parametrized basal drag component; a visco-elastic isostatic adjustment solver; a diverse set of climate forcings (to remove any reliance on any single method; tidewater and ice shelf calving functionality; and a new physically-motivated empirically-derived sub-shelf melt (SSM component. To assess the accuracy of the latter, we compare predicted SSM values against a compilation of published observations. Within parametric and observational uncertainties, computed SSM for the present day ice sheet is in accord with observations for all but the Filchner ice shelf. The GSM has 31 ensemble parameters that are varied to account (in part for the uncertainty in the ice-physics, the climate forcing, and the ice-ocean interaction. We document the parameters and parametric sensitivity of the model to motivate the choice of ensemble parameters in a quest to approximately bound reality (within the limits of 31 parameters.
Chen, Hui; Tan, Chao; Lin, Zan; Wu, Tong
2014-07-01
The aim of the present work focuses on exploring the feasibility of analyzing the relationship between diabetes mellitus and several element levels in hair/urine specimens by chemometrics. A dataset involving 211 specimens and eight element concentrations was used. The control group was divided into three age subsets in order to analyze the influence of age. It was found that the most obvious difference was the effect of age on the level of zinc and iron. The decline of iron concentration with age in hair was exactly consistent with the opposite trend in urine. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used as a tool for a preliminary evaluation of the data. Both ensemble and single support vector machine (SVM) algorithms were used as the classification tools. On average, the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of ensemble SVM models were 99%, 100%, 99% and 97%, 89%, 99% for hair and urine samples, respectively. The findings indicate that hair samples are superior to urine samples. Even so, it can provide more valuable information for prevention, diagnostics, treatment and research of diabetes by simultaneously analyzing the hair and urine samples.
X-Ray Cross-Correlation Analysis of Disordered Ensembles of Particles: Potentials and Limitations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. P. Kurta
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Angular X-ray cross-correlation analysis (XCCA is an approach to study the structure of disordered systems using the results of X-ray scattering experiments. In this paper we summarize recent theoretical developments related to the Fourier analysis of the cross-correlation functions. Results of our simulations demonstrate the application of XCCA to two- and three-dimensional (2D and 3D disordered ensembles of particles. We show that the structure of a single particle can be recovered using X-ray data collected from a 2D disordered system of identical particles. We also demonstrate that valuable structural information about the local structure of 3D systems, inaccessible from a standard small-angle X-ray scattering experiment, can be resolved using XCCA.
Data-worth analysis through probabilistic collocation-based Ensemble Kalman Filter
Dai, Cheng; Xue, Liang; Zhang, Dongxiao; Guadagnini, Alberto
2016-09-01
We propose a new and computationally efficient data-worth analysis and quantification framework keyed to the characterization of target state variables in groundwater systems. We focus on dynamically evolving plumes of dissolved chemicals migrating in randomly heterogeneous aquifers. An accurate prediction of the detailed features of solute plumes requires collecting a substantial amount of data. Otherwise, constraints dictated by the availability of financial resources and ease of access to the aquifer system suggest the importance of assessing the expected value of data before these are actually collected. Data-worth analysis is targeted to the quantification of the impact of new potential measurements on the expected reduction of predictive uncertainty based on a given process model. Integration of the Ensemble Kalman Filter method within a data-worth analysis framework enables us to assess data worth sequentially, which is a key desirable feature for monitoring scheme design in a contaminant transport scenario. However, it is remarkably challenging because of the (typically) high computational cost involved, considering that repeated solutions of the inverse problem are required. As a computationally efficient scheme, we embed in the data-worth analysis framework a modified version of the Probabilistic Collocation Method-based Ensemble Kalman Filter proposed by Zeng et al. (2011) so that we take advantage of the ability to assimilate data sequentially in time through a surrogate model constructed via the polynomial chaos expansion. We illustrate our approach on a set of synthetic scenarios involving solute migrating in a two-dimensional random permeability field. Our results demonstrate the computational efficiency of our approach and its ability to quantify the impact of the design of the monitoring network on the reduction of uncertainty associated with the characterization of a migrating contaminant plume.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Giancarlo Mauri
2013-09-01
Full Text Available An extensive rewiring of cell metabolism supports enhanced proliferation in cancer cells. We propose a systems level approach to describe this phenomenon based on Flux Balance Analysis (FBA. The approach does not explicit a cell biomass formation reaction to be maximized, but takes into account an ensemble of alternative flux distributions that match the cancer metabolic rewiring (CMR phenotype description. The underlying concept is that the analysis the common/distinguishing properties of the ensemble can provide indications on how CMR is achieved and sustained and thus on how it can be controlled.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xun Chen
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Electroencephalogram (EEG recordings are often contaminated with muscle artifacts. This disturbing muscular activity strongly affects the visual analysis of EEG and impairs the results of EEG signal processing such as brain connectivity analysis. If multichannel EEG recordings are available, then there exist a considerable range of methods which can remove or to some extent suppress the distorting effect of such artifacts. Yet to our knowledge, there is no existing means to remove muscle artifacts from single-channel EEG recordings. Moreover, considering the recently increasing need for biomedical signal processing in ambulatory situations, it is crucially important to develop single-channel techniques. In this work, we propose a simple, yet effective method to achieve the muscle artifact removal from single-channel EEG, by combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD with multiset canonical correlation analysis (MCCA. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method through numerical simulations and application to real EEG recordings contaminated with muscle artifacts. The proposed method can successfully remove muscle artifacts without altering the recorded underlying EEG activity. It is a promising tool for real-world biomedical signal processing applications.
Kiani, Keivan
2014-06-01
Novel nonlocal discrete and continuous models are proposed for dynamic analysis of two- and three-dimensional ensembles of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs). The generated extra van der Waals forces between adjacent SWCNTs due to their lateral motions are evaluated via Lennard-Jones potential function. Using a nonlocal Rayleigh beam model, the discrete and continuous models are developed for both two- and three-dimensional ensembles of SWCNTs acted upon by transverse dynamic loads. The capabilities of the proposed continuous models in capturing the vibration behavior of SWCNTs ensembles are then examined through various numerical simulations. A reasonably good agreement between the results of the continuous models and those of the discrete ones is also reported. The effects of the applied load frequency, intertube spaces, and small-scale parameter on the transverse dynamic responses of both two- and three-dimensional ensembles of SWCNTs are explained. The proposed continuous models would be very useful for dynamic analyses of large populated ensembles of SWCNTs whose discrete models suffer from both computational efforts and labor costs.
2002-01-01
NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sturm, Irene; Treder, Matthias S.; Miklody, Daniel
2015-01-01
When listening to ensemble music even non-musicians can follow single instruments effortlessly. Electrophysiological indices for neural sensory encoding of separate streams have been described using oddball paradigms which utilize brain reactions to sound events that deviate from a repeating...... standard pattern. Obviously, these paradigms put constraints on the compositional complexity of the musical stimulus. Here, we apply a regression-based method of multivariate EEG analysis in order to reveal the neural encoding of separate voices of naturalistic ensemble music that is based on cortical...... responses to tone onsets, such as N1/P2 ERP components. Music clips (resembling minimalistic electro-pop) were presented to 11 subjects, either in an ensemble version (drums, bass, keyboard) or in the corresponding three solo versions. For each instrument we train a spatio-temporal regression filter...
ENSO Forecasts in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Composite Analysis and Verification
Chen, L. C.
2015-12-01
In this study, we examine precipitation and temperature forecasts during El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in six models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), including the CFSv2, CanCM3, CanCM4, FLOR, GEOS5, and CCSM4 models, by comparing the model-based ENSO composites to the observed. The composite analysis is conducted using the 1982-2010 hindcasts for each of the six models with selected ENSO episodes based on the seasonal Ocean Nino Index (ONI) just prior to the date the forecasts were initiated. Two sets of composites are constructed over the North American continent: one based on precipitation and temperature anomalies, the other based on their probability of occurrence in a tercile-based system. The composites apply to monthly mean conditions in November, December, January, February, and March, respectively, as well as to the five-month aggregates representing the winter conditions. For the anomaly composites, we use the anomaly correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error against the observed composites for evaluation. For the probability composites, unlike conventional probabilistic forecast verification assuming binary outcomes to the observations, both model and observed composites are expressed in probability terms. Performance metrics for such validation are limited. Therefore, we develop a probability anomaly correlation measure and a probability score for assessment, so the results are comparable to the anomaly composite evaluation. We found that all NMME models predict ENSO precipitation patterns well during wintertime; however, some models have large discrepancies between the model temperature composites and the observed. The skill is higher for the multi-model ensemble, as well as the five-month aggregates. Comparing to the anomaly composites, the probability composites have superior skill in predicting ENSO temperature patterns and are less sensitive to the sample used to construct the composites, suggesting that
Bergeron, Jean M.; Trudel, Mélanie; Leconte, Robert
2016-10-01
The potential of data assimilation for hydrologic predictions has been demonstrated in many research studies. Watersheds over which multiple observation types are available can potentially further benefit from data assimilation by having multiple updated states from which hydrologic predictions can be generated. However, the magnitude and time span of the impact of the assimilation of an observation varies according not only to its type, but also to the variables included in the state vector. This study examines the impact of multivariate synthetic data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) into the spatially distributed hydrologic model CEQUEAU for the mountainous Nechako River located in British Columbia, Canada. Synthetic data include daily snow cover area (SCA), daily measurements of snow water equivalent (SWE) at three different locations and daily streamflow data at the watershed outlet. Results show a large variability of the continuous rank probability skill score over a wide range of prediction horizons (days to weeks) depending on the state vector configuration and the type of observations assimilated. Overall, the variables most closely linearly linked to the observations are the ones worth considering adding to the state vector due to the limitations imposed by the EnKF. The performance of the assimilation of basin-wide SCA, which does not have a decent proxy among potential state variables, does not surpass the open loop for any of the simulated variables. However, the assimilation of streamflow offers major improvements steadily throughout the year, but mainly over the short-term (up to 5 days) forecast horizons, while the impact of the assimilation of SWE gains more importance during the snowmelt period over the mid-term (up to 50 days) forecast horizon compared with open loop. The combined assimilation of streamflow and SWE performs better than their individual counterparts, offering improvements over all forecast horizons considered
Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting.
Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen
2015-12-28
We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.
Xue, L.; Dai, C.; Zhang, D.; Guadagnini, A.
2015-12-01
It is critical to predict contaminant plume in an aquifer under uncertainty, which can help assess environmental risk and design rational management strategies. An accurate prediction of contaminant plume requires the collection of data to help characterize the system. Due to the limitation of financial resources, ones should estimate the expectative value of data collected from each optional monitoring scheme before carried out. Data-worth analysis is believed to be an effective approach to identify the value of the data in some problems, which quantifies the uncertainty reduction assuming that the plausible data has been collected. However, it is difficult to apply the data-worth analysis to a dynamic simulation of contaminant transportation model owning to its requirement of large number of inverse-modeling. In this study, a novel efficient data-worth analysis framework is proposed by developing the Probabilistic Collocation Method based Ensemble Kalman Filter (PCKF). The PCKF constructs polynomial chaos expansion surrogate model to replace the original complex numerical model. Consequently, the inverse modeling can perform on the proxy rather than the original model. An illustrative example, considering the dynamic change of the contaminant concentration, is employed to demonstrate the proposed approach. The Results reveal that schemes with different sampling frequencies, monitoring networks location, prior data content will have significant impact on the uncertainty reduction of the estimation of contaminant plume. Our proposition is validated to provide the reasonable value of data from various schemes.
Oza, Nikunj C.
2004-01-01
Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.
Wu, Yunfeng; Yang, Shanshan; Zheng, Fang; Cai, Suxian; Lu, Meng; Wu, Meihong
2014-03-01
High-resolution knee joint vibroarthrographic (VAG) signals can help physicians accurately evaluate the pathological condition of a degenerative knee joint, in order to prevent unnecessary exploratory surgery. Artifact cancellation is vital to preserve the quality of VAG signals prior to further computer-aided analysis. This paper describes a novel method that effectively utilizes ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) algorithms for the removal of baseline wander and white noise in VAG signal processing. The EEMD method first successively decomposes the raw VAG signal into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with fast and low oscillations, until the monotonic baseline wander remains in the last residue. Then, the DFA algorithm is applied to compute the fractal scaling index parameter for each IMF, in order to identify the anti-correlation and the long-range correlation components. Next, the DFA algorithm can be used to identify the anti-correlated and the long-range correlated IMFs, which assists in reconstructing the artifact-reduced VAG signals. Our experimental results showed that the combination of EEMD and DFA algorithms was able to provide averaged signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) values of 20.52 dB (standard deviation: 1.14 dB) and 20.87 dB (standard deviation: 1.89 dB) for 45 normal signals in healthy subjects and 20 pathological signals in symptomatic patients, respectively. The combination of EEMD and DFA algorithms can ameliorate the quality of VAG signals with great SNR improvements over the raw signal, and the results were also superior to those achieved by wavelet matching pursuit decomposition and time-delay neural filter.
Brissette, F.; Chen, J.; Li, Z.; Turcotte, R.
2012-04-01
Probabilistic streamflow forecasting has been an important research avenue over the past decade and such approaches are now more commonly being incorporated into operational forecasting systems within government agencies and industries dealing with water management. This work details a prototype for a streamflow forecast operational system in southern Quebec, Canada. The system uses ensemble meteorological forecasts for short term (less than 10 days) forecasting, switching to a stochastic weather generator for the period exceeding 10 days all the way to a three-month lead time. Precipitation and temperature series are then fed to one (or many) hydrological models to produce streamflow forecasts. The ensemble weather forecasts are corrected for biases and under dispersion using logistic regression. Results show that the ensemble streamflow forecasts resulting from the ensemble meteorological forecast have more skill than the deterministic forecasts. Preliminary results indicate that ensemble meteorological forecasts displayed skill for a period up to 5 days for precipitation and up to about 10 days for temperature. Past ten days, probabilistic streamflow forecasts are based on multiple synthetic times series obtained from a stochastic weather generator. The use of stochastic time series result in better forecasts then resampling the historical record and allows for better evaluation of extreme events. The weather generator can easily be linked to large scale seasonal global predictors, is such links exist. Over the tested basins (continental climate), the system forecast has skills up to a lead time of 4 weeks in the best case. For a lead-time between one and three months, using the forecast prototype yielded no better results than using the historical streamflow record. This work also investigated the uncertainty linked to the choice of one hydrology model and the ability of a multi-model approach to improve streamflow forecasting. Preliminary results showed that
Yeh, Jia-Rong; Lin, Tzu-Yu; Chen, Yun; Sun, Wei-Zen; Abbod, Maysam F; Shieh, Jiann-Shing
2012-01-01
Cardiovascular system is known to be nonlinear and nonstationary. Traditional linear assessments algorithms of arterial stiffness and systemic resistance of cardiac system accompany the problem of nonstationary or inconvenience in practical applications. In this pilot study, two new assessment methods were developed: the first is ensemble empirical mode decomposition based reflection index (EEMD-RI) while the second is based on the phase shift between ECG and BP on cardiac oscillation. Both methods utilise the EEMD algorithm which is suitable for nonlinear and nonstationary systems. These methods were used to investigate the properties of arterial stiffness and systemic resistance for a pig's cardiovascular system via ECG and blood pressure (BP). This experiment simulated a sequence of continuous changes of blood pressure arising from steady condition to high blood pressure by clamping the artery and an inverse by relaxing the artery. As a hypothesis, the arterial stiffness and systemic resistance should vary with the blood pressure due to clamping and relaxing the artery. The results show statistically significant correlations between BP, EEMD-based RI, and the phase shift between ECG and BP on cardiac oscillation. The two assessments results demonstrate the merits of the EEMD for signal analysis.
Marucci-Wellman, Helen R; Corns, Helen L; Lehto, Mark R
2017-01-01
Injury narratives are now available real time and include useful information for injury surveillance and prevention. However, manual classification of the cause or events leading to injury found in large batches of narratives, such as workers compensation claims databases, can be prohibitive. In this study we compare the utility of four machine learning algorithms (Naïve Bayes, Single word and Bi-gram models, Support Vector Machine and Logistic Regression) for classifying narratives into Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Injury and Illness event leading to injury classifications for a large workers compensation database. These algorithms are known to do well classifying narrative text and are fairly easy to implement with off-the-shelf software packages such as Python. We propose human-machine learning ensemble approaches which maximize the power and accuracy of the algorithms for machine-assigned codes and allow for strategic filtering of rare, emerging or ambiguous narratives for manual review. We compare human-machine approaches based on filtering on the prediction strength of the classifier vs. agreement between algorithms. Regularized Logistic Regression (LR) was the best performing algorithm alone. Using this algorithm and filtering out the bottom 30% of predictions for manual review resulted in high accuracy (overall sensitivity/positive predictive value of 0.89) of the final machine-human coded dataset. The best pairings of algorithms included Naïve Bayes with Support Vector Machine whereby the triple ensemble NBSW=NBBI-GRAM=SVM had very high performance (0.93 overall sensitivity/positive predictive value and high accuracy (i.e. high sensitivity and positive predictive values)) across both large and small categories leaving 41% of the narratives for manual review. Integrating LR into this ensemble mix improved performance only slightly. For large administrative datasets we propose incorporation of methods based on human-machine pairings such as we
Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic
2012-06-01
generally best suited for the extratropics such that no special perturbations are applied specific to individual tropical cyclones ( UCAR 2012...Available from http://edocs.nps.edu/]. 63 UCAR , cited 2012: Guide to GFS Ensemble Track Plots. [Available online at http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance
Squeezing of Collective Excitations in Spin Ensembles
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kraglund Andersen, Christian; Mølmer, Klaus
2012-01-01
We analyse the possibility to create two-mode spin squeezed states of two separate spin ensembles by inverting the spins in one ensemble and allowing spin exchange between the ensembles via a near resonant cavity field. We investigate the dynamics of the system using a combination of numerical an...
Ba, Demba; Temereanca, Simona; Brown, Emery N
2014-01-01
Understanding how ensembles of neurons represent and transmit information in the patterns of their joint spiking activity is a fundamental question in computational neuroscience. At present, analyses of spiking activity from neuronal ensembles are limited because multivariate point process (MPP) models cannot represent simultaneous occurrences of spike events at an arbitrarily small time resolution. Solo recently reported a simultaneous-event multivariate point process (SEMPP) model to correct this key limitation. In this paper, we show how Solo's discrete-time formulation of the SEMPP model can be efficiently fit to ensemble neural spiking activity using a multinomial generalized linear model (mGLM). Unlike existing approximate procedures for fitting the discrete-time SEMPP model, the mGLM is an exact algorithm. The MPP time-rescaling theorem can be used to assess model goodness-of-fit. We also derive a new marked point-process (MkPP) representation of the SEMPP model that leads to new thinning and time-rescaling algorithms for simulating an SEMPP stochastic process. These algorithms are much simpler than multivariate extensions of algorithms for simulating a univariate point process, and could not be arrived at without the MkPP representation. We illustrate the versatility of the SEMPP model by analyzing neural spiking activity from pairs of simultaneously-recorded rat thalamic neurons stimulated by periodic whisker deflections, and by simulating SEMPP data. In the data analysis example, the SEMPP model demonstrates that whisker motion significantly modulates simultaneous spiking activity at the 1 ms time scale and that the stimulus effect is more than one order of magnitude greater for simultaneous activity compared with non-simultaneous activity. Together, the mGLM, the MPP time-rescaling theorem and the MkPP representation of the SEMPP model offer a theoretically sound, practical tool for measuring joint spiking propensity in a neuronal ensemble.
Dehzangi, Abdollah; Paliwal, Kuldip; Sharma, Alok; Dehzangi, Omid; Sattar, Abdul
2013-01-01
Better understanding of structural class of a given protein reveals important information about its overall folding type and its domain. It can also be directly used to provide critical information on general tertiary structure of a protein which has a profound impact on protein function determination and drug design. Despite tremendous enhancements made by pattern recognition-based approaches to solve this problem, it still remains as an unsolved issue for bioinformatics that demands more attention and exploration. In this study, we propose a novel feature extraction model that incorporates physicochemical and evolutionary-based information simultaneously. We also propose overlapped segmented distribution and autocorrelation-based feature extraction methods to provide more local and global discriminatory information. The proposed feature extraction methods are explored for 15 most promising attributes that are selected from a wide range of physicochemical-based attributes. Finally, by applying an ensemble of different classifiers namely, Adaboost.M1, LogitBoost, naive Bayes, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and support vector machine (SVM) we show enhancement of the protein structural class prediction accuracy for four popular benchmarks.
A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses totemperature and CO2concentration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Makowski, D; Asseng, S; Ewert, F.;
2015-01-01
Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data...... in the simulation protocols. Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulate ensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models is that they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2 concentration...... levels, and can thus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulated by 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical...
2012-09-01
ATMOSPHERIC MODELS INCLUDING ENSEMBLE METHODS Scott E. Miller Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., University of South Carolina, 2000 B.S...Typical gas turbine fuel consumption curve and relationship to sea state .......51 Figure 16. DDG 58 speed reduction curves for bow seas...Day Time Group ECDIS-N Electronic Chart Display and Information System – Navy ECMWF European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts EFAS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Panos ePapiotis
2014-09-01
Full Text Available In a musical ensemble such as a string quartet, the musicians interact and influence each other’s actions in several aspects of the performance simultaneously in order to achieve a common aesthetic goal. In this article, we present and evaluate a computational approach for measuring the degree to which these interactions exist in a given performance. We recorded a number of string quartet exercises under two experimental conditions (solo and ensemble, acquiring both audio and bowing motion data. Numerical features in the form of time series were extracted from the data as performance descriptors representative of four distinct dimensions of the performance: Intonation, Dynamics, Timbre and Tempo. Four different interdependence estimation methods (two linear and two nonlinear were applied to the extracted features in order to assess the overall level of interdependence between the four musicians. The obtained results suggest that it is possible to correctly discriminate between the two experimental conditions by quantifying interdependence between the musicians in each of the studied performance dimensions; the nonlinear methods appear to perform best for most of the numerical features tested. Moreover, by using the solo recordings as a reference to which the ensemble recordings are contrasted, it is feasible to compare the amount of interdependence that is established between the musicians in a given performance dimension across all exercises, and relate the results to the underlying goal of the exercise. We discuss our findings in the context of ensemble performance research, the current limitations of our approach, and the ways in which it can be expanded and consolidated.
An Action Analysis for Combining Partial Evaluation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
廖湖声
2000-01-01
This paper proposes an action analysis for implementing combining partial evaluation efficiently. By analyzing the results of binding time analysis, operations, which should be used in the combining partial evaluation, are determined in advance, so that the computation in the combination of specialized programs is reduced effectively.
Kasiviswanathan, K.; Sudheer, K.
2013-05-01
Artificial neural network (ANN) based hydrologic models have gained lot of attention among water resources engineers and scientists, owing to their potential for accurate prediction of flood flows as compared to conceptual or physics based hydrologic models. The ANN approximates the non-linear functional relationship between the complex hydrologic variables in arriving at the river flow forecast values. Despite a large number of applications, there is still some criticism that ANN's point prediction lacks in reliability since the uncertainty of predictions are not quantified, and it limits its use in practical applications. A major concern in application of traditional uncertainty analysis techniques on neural network framework is its parallel computing architecture with large degrees of freedom, which makes the uncertainty assessment a challenging task. Very limited studies have considered assessment of predictive uncertainty of ANN based hydrologic models. In this study, a novel method is proposed that help construct the prediction interval of ANN flood forecasting model during calibration itself. The method is designed to have two stages of optimization during calibration: at stage 1, the ANN model is trained with genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain optimal set of weights and biases vector, and during stage 2, the optimal variability of ANN parameters (obtained in stage 1) is identified so as to create an ensemble of predictions. During the 2nd stage, the optimization is performed with multiple objectives, (i) minimum residual variance for the ensemble mean, (ii) maximum measured data points to fall within the estimated prediction interval and (iii) minimum width of prediction interval. The method is illustrated using a real world case study of an Indian basin. The method was able to produce an ensemble that has an average prediction interval width of 23.03 m3/s, with 97.17% of the total validation data points (measured) lying within the interval. The derived
Spin–Orbit Alignment of Exoplanet Systems: Ensemble Analysis Using Asteroseismology
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Campante, T. L.; Lund, M. N.; Kuszlewicz, James S.
2016-01-01
of a measurement of the projected spin–orbit angle λ for two of the systems allows us to estimate ψ . We find that the orbit of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-7b is likely to be retrograde ( ##IMG## [http://ej.iop.org/images/0004-637X/819/1/85/apj522683ieqn1.gif] $psi =116rc. 4_-14.7^+30.2$ ), whereas that of Kepler-25c......The angle ψ between a planet’s orbital axis and the spin axis of its parent star is an important diagnostic of planet formation, migration, and tidal evolution. We seek empirical constraints on ψ by measuring the stellar inclination i s via asteroseismology for an ensemble of 25 solar-type hosts...... and planetary orbital axes are correlated, as conveyed by a tendency of the host stars to display large values of inclination....
Johnstone, Iain M
2008-12-01
Let A and B be independent, central Wishart matrices in p variables with common covariance and having m and n degrees of freedom, respectively. The distribution of the largest eigenvalue of (A + B)(-1)B has numerous applications in multivariate statistics, but is difficult to calculate exactly. Suppose that m and n grow in proportion to p. We show that after centering and, scaling, the distribution is approximated to second-order, O(p(-2/3)), by the Tracy-Widom law. The results are obtained for both complex and then real-valued data by using methods of random matrix theory to study the largest eigenvalue of the Jacobi unitary and orthogonal ensembles. Asymptotic approximations of Jacobi polynomials near the largest zero play a central role.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Van Driel, A.F.; Nikolaev, I.S.; Vergeer, P.
2007-01-01
analysis to recent examples of colloidal quantum dot emission in suspensions and in photonic crystals, and we find that this important class of emitters is well described by a log-normal distribution of decay rates with a narrow and a broad distribution, respectively. Finally, we briefly discuss......We present a statistical analysis of time-resolved spontaneous emission decay curves from ensembles of emitters, such as semiconductor quantum dots, with the aim of interpreting ubiquitous non-single-exponential decay. Contrary to what is widely assumed, the density of excited emitters...... and the intensity in an emission decay curve are not proportional, but the density is a time integral of the intensity. The integral relation is crucial to correctly interpret non-single-exponential decay. We derive the proper normalization for both a discrete and a continuous distribution of rates, where every...
On the structure and phase transitions of power-law Poissonian ensembles
Eliazar, Iddo; Oshanin, Gleb
2012-10-01
Power-law Poissonian ensembles are Poisson processes that are defined on the positive half-line, and that are governed by power-law intensities. Power-law Poissonian ensembles are stochastic objects of fundamental significance; they uniquely display an array of fractal features and they uniquely generate a span of important applications. In this paper we apply three different methods—oligarchic analysis, Lorenzian analysis and heterogeneity analysis—to explore power-law Poissonian ensembles. The amalgamation of these analyses, combined with the topology of power-law Poissonian ensembles, establishes a detailed and multi-faceted picture of the statistical structure and the statistical phase transitions of these elemental ensembles.
Borgia, Alessandro; Wensley, Beth G; Soranno, Andrea; Nettels, Daniel; Borgia, Madeleine B; Hoffmann, Armin; Pfeil, Shawn H; Lipman, Everett A; Clarke, Jane; Schuler, Benjamin
2012-01-01
Theory, simulations and experimental results have suggested an important role of internal friction in the kinetics of protein folding. Recent experiments on spectrin domains provided the first evidence for a pronounced contribution of internal friction in proteins that fold on the millisecond timescale. However, it has remained unclear how this contribution is distributed along the reaction and what influence it has on the folding dynamics. Here we use a combination of single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer, nanosecond fluorescence correlation spectroscopy, microfluidic mixing and denaturant- and viscosity-dependent protein-folding kinetics to probe internal friction in the unfolded state and at the early and late transition states of slow- and fast-folding spectrin domains. We find that the internal friction affecting the folding rates of spectrin domains is highly localized to the early transition state, suggesting an important role of rather specific interactions in the rate-limiting conformational changes.
Composed ensembles of random unitary ensembles
Pozniak, M; Kus, M; Pozniak, Marcin; Zyczkowski, Karol; Kus, Marek
1997-01-01
Composed ensembles of random unitary matrices are defined via products of matrices, each pertaining to a given canonical circular ensemble of Dyson. We investigate statistical properties of spectra of some composed ensembles and demonstrate their physical relevance. We discuss also the methods of generating random matrices distributed according to invariant Haar measure on the orthogonal and unitary group.
Huang, Hsin-Hsiung
2016-06-01
The Natural Vector combined with Hausdorff distance has been successfully applied for classifying and clustering multiple-segmented viruses. Additionally, k-mer methods also yield promising results for global genome comparison. It is not known whether combining these two approaches can lead to more accurate results. The author proposes a method of combining the Hausdorff distances of the 5-mer counting vectors and natural vectors which achieves the best classification without cutting off any sample. Using the proposed method to predict the taxonomic labels for the 2363 NCBI reference viral genomes dataset, the accuracy rates are 96.95%, 94.37%, 99.41% and 93.82% for the Baltimore, family, subfamily, and genus labels, respectively. We further applied the proposed method to 48 isolates of the influenza A H7N9 viruses which have eight complete segments of nucleotide sequences. The single-linkage clustering trees and the statistical hypothesis testing results all indicate that the proposed ensemble distance measure can cluster viruses well using all of their segments of genome sequences.
Combining microarrays and genetic analysis
Alberts, Rudi; Fu, Jingyuan; Swertz, Morris A.; Lubbers, L. Alrik; Albers, Casper J.; Jansen, Ritsert C.
2005-01-01
Gene expression can be studied at a genome-wide scale with the aid of modern microarray technologies. Expression profiling of tens to hundreds of individuals in a genetic population can reveal the consequences of genetic variation. In this paper it is argued that the design and analysis of such a st
Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filtering
Tsyrulnikov, Michael
2015-01-01
Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), when applied to high-dimensional systems, suffers from an inevitably small affordable ensemble size, which results in poor estimates of the background error covariance matrix ${\\bf B}$. The common remedy is a kind of regularization, usually an ad-hoc spatial covariance localization (tapering) combined with artificial covariance inflation. Instead of using an ad-hoc regularization, we adopt the idea by Myrseth and Omre (2010) and explicitly admit that the ${\\bf B}$ matrix is unknown and random and estimate it along with the state (${\\bf x}$) in an optimal hierarchical Bayes analysis scheme. We separate forecast errors into predictability errors (i.e. forecast errors due to uncertainties in the initial data) and model errors (forecast errors due to imperfections in the forecast model) and include the two respective components ${\\bf P}$ and ${\\bf Q}$ of the ${\\bf B}$ matrix into the extended control vector $({\\bf x},{\\bf P},{\\bf Q})$. Similarly, we break the traditional backgrou...
Analysis of the efficiency of the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Marginal and Joint Posteriors
Morzfeld, M.; Hodyss, D.; Snyder, C.
2015-12-01
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used to sample a probability density function (pdf) generated by a stochastic model conditioned by noisy data. This pdf can be either a joint posterior that describes the evolution of the state of the system in time, conditioned on all the data up to the present, or a particular marginal of this posterior that describes the state at the current time conditioned on all past data. We show that the EnKF collapses in the same way and under even broader conditions as a particle filter when it samples the joint posterior. However, this does not imply that EnKF collapses when it samples the marginal posterior. We we show that a localized and inflated EnKF can efficiently sample this marginal, and argue that the marginal posterior is often the more useful pdf in geophysics. This explains the wide applicability of EnKF in this field. We further investigate the typical tuning of EnKF, in which one attempts to match the mean square error (MSE) to the marginal posterior variance, and show that sampling error may be huge, even if the MSE is moderate.
Xu, Xiaojiang; Gonzalez, Julio A.; Santee, William R.; Blanchard, Laurie A.; Hoyt, Reed W.
2016-07-01
The objective of this paper is to study the effects of personal protective equipment (PPE) and specific PPE layers, defined as thermal/evaporative resistances and the mass, on heat strain during physical activity. A stepwise thermal manikin testing and modeling approach was used to analyze a PPE ensemble with four layers: uniform, ballistic protection, chemical protective clothing, and mask and gloves. The PPE was tested on a thermal manikin, starting with the uniform, then adding an additional layer in each step. Wearing PPE increases the metabolic rates (dot{M}) , thus dot{M} were adjusted according to the mass of each of four configurations. A human thermoregulatory model was used to predict endurance time for each configuration at fixed dot{M} and at its mass adjusted dot{M} . Reductions in endurance time due to resistances, and due to mass, were separately determined using predicted results. Fractional contributions of PPE's thermal/evaporative resistances by layer show that the ballistic protection and the chemical protective clothing layers contribute about 20 %, respectively. Wearing the ballistic protection over the uniform reduced endurance time from 146 to 75 min, with 31 min of the decrement due to the additional resistances of the ballistic protection, and 40 min due to increased dot{M} associated with the additional mass. Effects of mass on heat strain are of a similar magnitude relative to effects of increased resistances. Reducing resistances and mass can both significantly alleviate heat strain.
Spin-orbit alignment of exoplanet systems: ensemble analysis using asteroseismology
Campante, T L; Kuszlewicz, J S; Davies, G R; Chaplin, W J; Albrecht, S; Winn, J N; Bedding, T R; Benomar, O; Bossini, D; Handberg, R; Santos, A R G; Van Eylen, V; Basu, S; Christensen-Dalsgaard, J; Elsworth, Y P; Hekker, S; Hirano, T; Huber, D; Karoff, C; Kjeldsen, H; Lundkvist, M S; North, T S H; Aguirre, V Silva; Stello, D; White, T R
2016-01-01
The angle $\\psi$ between a planet's orbital axis and the spin axis of its parent star is an important diagnostic of planet formation, migration, and tidal evolution. We seek empirical constraints on $\\psi$ by measuring the stellar inclination $i_{\\rm s}$ via asteroseismology for an ensemble of 25 solar-type hosts observed with NASA's Kepler satellite. Our results for $i_{\\rm s}$ are consistent with alignment at the 2-$\\sigma$ level for all stars in the sample, meaning that the system surrounding the red-giant star Kepler-56 remains as the only unambiguous misaligned multiple-planet system detected to date. The availability of a measurement of the projected spin-orbit angle $\\lambda$ for two of the systems allows us to estimate $\\psi$. We find that the orbit of the hot-Jupiter HAT-P-7b is likely to be retrograde ($\\psi=116.4^{+30.2}_{-14.7}\\:{\\rm deg}$), whereas that of Kepler-25c seems to be well aligned with the stellar spin axis ($\\psi=12.6^{+6.7}_{-11.0}\\:{\\rm deg}$). While the latter result is in apparent...
Wen, Yalu; Lu, Qing
2016-09-01
Although compelling evidence suggests that the genetic etiology of complex diseases could be heterogeneous in subphenotype groups, little attention has been paid to phenotypic heterogeneity in genetic association analysis of complex diseases. Simply ignoring phenotypic heterogeneity in association analysis could result in attenuated estimates of genetic effects and low power of association tests if subphenotypes with similar clinical manifestations have heterogeneous underlying genetic etiologies. To facilitate the family-based association analysis allowing for phenotypic heterogeneity, we propose a clustered multiclass likelihood-ratio ensemble (CMLRE) method. The proposed method provides an alternative way to model the complex relationship between disease outcomes and genetic variants. It allows for heterogeneous genetic causes of disease subphenotypes and can be applied to various pedigree structures. Through simulations, we found CMLRE outperformed the commonly adopted strategies in a variety of underlying disease scenarios. We further applied CMLRE to a family-based dataset from the International Consortium to Identify Genes and Interactions Controlling Oral Clefts (ICOC) to investigate the genetic variants and interactions predisposing to subphenotypes of oral clefts. The analysis suggested that two subphenotypes, nonsyndromic cleft lip without palate (CL) and cleft lip with palate (CLP), shared similar genetic etiologies, while cleft palate only (CP) had its own genetic mechanism. The analysis further revealed that rs10863790 (IRF6), rs7017252 (8q24), and rs7078160 (VAX1) were jointly associated with CL/CLP, while rs7969932 (TBK1), rs227731 (17q22), and rs2141765 (TBK1) jointly contributed to CP.
A study of fuzzy logic ensemble system performance on face recognition problem
Polyakova, A.; Lipinskiy, L.
2017-02-01
Some problems are difficult to solve by using a single intelligent information technology (IIT). The ensemble of the various data mining (DM) techniques is a set of models which are able to solve the problem by itself, but the combination of which allows increasing the efficiency of the system as a whole. Using the IIT ensembles can improve the reliability and efficiency of the final decision, since it emphasizes on the diversity of its components. The new method of the intellectual informational technology ensemble design is considered in this paper. It is based on the fuzzy logic and is designed to solve the classification and regression problems. The ensemble consists of several data mining algorithms: artificial neural network, support vector machine and decision trees. These algorithms and their ensemble have been tested by solving the face recognition problems. Principal components analysis (PCA) is used for feature selection.
Pirttioja, N.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; Acutis, M.; Supit, I.
2015-01-01
This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop sim
Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun
2012-01-01
Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have
Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid
2016-08-01
Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.
Convergence analysis of combinations of different methods
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kang, Y. [Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY (United States)
1994-12-31
This paper provides a convergence analysis for combinations of different numerical methods for solving systems of differential equations. The author proves that combinations of two convergent linear multistep methods or Runge-Kutta methods produce a new convergent method of which the order is equal to the smaller order of the two original methods.
A mollified Ensemble Kalman filter
Bergemann, Kay
2010-01-01
It is well recognized that discontinuous analysis increments of sequential data assimilation systems, such as ensemble Kalman filters, might lead to spurious high frequency adjustment processes in the model dynamics. Various methods have been devised to continuously spread out the analysis increments over a fixed time interval centered about analysis time. Among these techniques are nudging and incremental analysis updates (IAU). Here we propose another alternative, which may be viewed as a hybrid of nudging and IAU and which arises naturally from a recently proposed continuous formulation of the ensemble Kalman analysis step. A new slow-fast extension of the popular Lorenz-96 model is introduced to demonstrate the properties of the proposed mollified ensemble Kalman filter.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jogendra Kushwah
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The free radical gene classification of cancer diseases is challenging job in biomedical data engineering. The improving of classification of gene selection of cancer diseases various classifier are used, but the classification of classifier are not validate. So ensemble classifier is used for cancer gene classification using neural network classifier with random forest tree. The random forest tree is ensembling technique of classifier in this technique the number of classifier ensemble of their leaf node of class of classifier. In this paper we combined neural network with random forest ensemble classifier for classification of cancer gene selection for diagnose analysis of cancer diseases. The proposed method is different from most of the methods of ensemble classifier, which follow an input output paradigm of neural network, where the members of the ensemble are selected from a set of neural network classifier. the number of classifiers is determined during the rising procedure of the forest. Furthermore, the proposed method produces an ensemble not only correct, but also assorted, ensuring the two important properties that should characterize an ensemble classifier. For empirical evaluation of our proposed method we used UCI cancer diseases data set for classification. Our experimental result shows that better result in compression of random forest tree classification.
Bouallegue, Zied Ben; Theis, Susanne E; Pinson, Pierre
2015-01-01
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost.For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method consists in rebuilding the multivariate aspect of the forecast from the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new approach which preserves the dynamical development of the ensemble members is called dynamic ensemble copula coupling (...
Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.
Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano
2016-05-05
Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances.
Messerly, Richard A; Rowley, Richard L; Knotts, Thomas A; Wilding, W Vincent
2015-09-14
A rigorous statistical analysis is presented for Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations. This analysis reduces the uncertainty in the critical point estimate when compared with traditional methods found in the literature. Two different improvements are recommended due to the following results. First, the traditional propagation of error approach for estimating the standard deviations used in regression improperly weighs the terms in the objective function due to the inherent interdependence of the vapor and liquid densities. For this reason, an error model is developed to predict the standard deviations. Second, and most importantly, a rigorous algorithm for nonlinear regression is compared to the traditional approach of linearizing the equations and propagating the error in the slope and the intercept. The traditional regression approach can yield nonphysical confidence intervals for the critical constants. By contrast, the rigorous algorithm restricts the confidence regions to values that are physically sensible. To demonstrate the effect of these conclusions, a case study is performed to enhance the reliability of molecular simulations to resolve the n-alkane family trend for the critical temperature and critical density.
Evaluation of LDA Ensembles Classifiers for Brain Computer Interface
Arjona, Cristian; Pentácolo, José; Gareis, Iván; Atum, Yanina; Gentiletti, Gerardo; Acevedo, Rubén; Rufiner, Leonardo
2011-12-01
The Brain Computer Interface (BCI) translates brain activity into computer commands. To increase the performance of the BCI, to decode the user intentions it is necessary to get better the feature extraction and classification techniques. In this article the performance of a three linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers ensemble is studied. The system based on ensemble can theoretically achieved better classification results than the individual counterpart, regarding individual classifier generation algorithm and the procedures for combine their outputs. Classic algorithms based on ensembles such as bagging and boosting are discussed here. For the application on BCI, it was concluded that the generated results using ER and AUC as performance index do not give enough information to establish which configuration is better.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
张斌; 庄池杰; 胡军; 陈水明; 张明明; 王科; 曾嵘
2015-01-01
large datasets clustering. Various techniques for reducing the dimension of the input datasets were studied and the results were compared from perspectives of computing time and information losses. The results indicate that the combination of principal component analysis and ensemble clustering algorithm performs better both in efficiency and accuracy for clustering large-scale load profiles.
Supervised Ensemble Classification of Kepler Variable Stars
Bass, Gideon
2016-01-01
Variable star analysis and classification is an important task in the understanding of stellar features and processes. While historically classifications have been done manually by highly skilled experts, the recent and rapid expansion in the quantity and quality of data has demanded new techniques, most notably automatic classification through supervised machine learning. We present an expansion of existing work on the field by analyzing variable stars in the {\\em Kepler} field using an ensemble approach, combining multiple characterization and classification techniques to produce improved classification rates. Classifications for each of the roughly 150,000 stars observed by {\\em Kepler} are produced separating the stars into one of 14 variable star classes.
Exploring ensemble visualization
Phadke, Madhura N.; Pinto, Lifford; Alabi, Oluwafemi; Harter, Jonathan; Taylor, Russell M., II; Wu, Xunlei; Petersen, Hannah; Bass, Steffen A.; Healey, Christopher G.
2012-01-01
An ensemble is a collection of related datasets. Each dataset, or member, of an ensemble is normally large, multidimensional, and spatio-temporal. Ensembles are used extensively by scientists and mathematicians, for example, by executing a simulation repeatedly with slightly different input parameters and saving the results in an ensemble to see how parameter choices affect the simulation. To draw inferences from an ensemble, scientists need to compare data both within and between ensemble members. We propose two techniques to support ensemble exploration and comparison: a pairwise sequential animation method that visualizes locally neighboring members simultaneously, and a screen door tinting method that visualizes subsets of members using screen space subdivision. We demonstrate the capabilities of both techniques, first using synthetic data, then with simulation data of heavy ion collisions in high-energy physics. Results show that both techniques are capable of supporting meaningful comparisons of ensemble data.
Morzfeld, Matthias
2015-01-01
In data assimilation one updates the state of a numerical model with information from sparse and noisy observations of the model's state. A popular approach to data assimilation in geophysical applications is the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). An alternative approach is particle filtering and, recently, much theoretical work has been done to understand the abilities and limitations of particle filters. Here we extend this work to EnKF. First we explain that EnKF and particle filters solve different problems: the EnKF approximates a specific marginal of the joint posterior of particle filters. We then perform a linear analysis of the EnKF as a sequential sampling algorithm for the joint posterior (i.e. as a particle filter), and show that the EnKF collapses on this problem in the exact same way and under similar conditions as particle filters. However, it is critical to realize that the collapse of the EnKF on the joint posterior does not imply its collapse on the marginal posterior. This raises the question, ...
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHOU Fu-chang; CHEN Jin; HE Jun; BI Guo; LI Fu-cai; ZHANG Gui-cai
2005-01-01
The vibration signals of rolling element bearing are produced by a combination of periodic and random processes due to the machine's rotation cycle and interaction with the real world. The combination of such components can give rise to signals, which have periodically time-varying ensemble statistical and are best considered as cyclostationary. When the early fault occurs, the background noise is very heavy, it is difficult to disclose the latent periodic components successfully using cyclostationary analysis alone. In this paper the degree of cyclostationarity is combined with wavelet filtering for detection of rolling element bearing early faults. Using the proposed entropy minimization rule. The parameters of the wavelet filter are optimized. This method is shown to be effective in detecting rolling element bearing early fault when cyclostationary analysis by itself fails.
Bennett, James C.; Wang, Q. J.; Li, Ming; Robertson, David E.; Schepen, Andrew
2016-10-01
We present a new streamflow forecasting system called forecast guided stochastic scenarios (FoGSS). FoGSS makes use of ensemble seasonal precipitation forecasts from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). The CGCM forecasts are post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging (CBaM) to produce ensemble precipitation forecasts over river catchments. CBaM corrects biases and removes noise from the CGCM forecasts, and produces highly reliable ensemble precipitation forecasts. The post-processed CGCM forecasts are used to force the Wapaba monthly rainfall-runoff model. Uncertainty in the hydrological modeling is accounted for with a three-stage error model. Stage 1 applies the log-sinh transformation to normalize residuals and homogenize their variance; Stage 2 applies a conditional bias-correction to correct biases and help remove negative forecast skill; Stage 3 applies an autoregressive model to improve forecast accuracy at short lead-times and propagate uncertainty through the forecast. FoGSS generates ensemble forecasts in the form of time series for the coming 12 months. In a case study of two catchments, FoGSS produces reliable forecasts at all lead-times. Forecast skill with respect to climatology is evident to lead-times of about 3 months. At longer lead-times, forecast skill approximates that of climatology forecasts; that is, forecasts become like stochastic scenarios. Because forecast skill is virtually never negative at long lead-times, forecasts of accumulated volumes can be skillful. Forecasts of accumulated 12 month streamflow volumes are significantly skillful in several instances, and ensembles of accumulated volumes are reliable. We conclude that FoGSS forecasts could be highly useful to water managers.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHENG Xiaogu; WU Guocan; ZHANG Shupeng; LIANG Xiao; DAI Yongjiu; LI Yong
2013-01-01
Correctly estimating the forecast error covariance matrix is a key step in any data assimilation scheme.If it is not correctly estimated,the assimilated states could be far from the true states.A popular method to address this problem is error covariance matrix inflation.That is,to multiply the forecast error covariance matrix by an appropriate factor.In this paper,analysis states are used to construct the forecast error covariance matrix and an adaptive estimation procedure associated with the error covariance matrix inflation technique is developed.The proposed assimilation scheme was tested on the Lorenz-96 model and 2D Shallow Water Equation model,both of which are associated with spatially correlated observational systems.The experiments showed that by introducing the proposed structure of the forecast error covariance matrix and applying its adaptive estimation procedure,the assimilation results were further improved.
Energy Analysis in Combined Reforming of Propane
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Moon
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Combined (steam and CO2 reforming is one of the methods to produce syngas for different applications. An energy requirement analysis of steam reforming to dry reforming with intermediate steps of steam reduction and equivalent CO2 addition to the feed fuel for syngas generation has been done to identify condition for optimum process operation. Thermodynamic equilibrium data for combined reforming was generated for temperature range of 400–1000°C at 1 bar pressure and combined oxidant (CO2 + H2O stream to propane (fuel ratio of 3, 6, and 9 by employing the Gibbs free energy minimization algorithm of HSC Chemistry software 5.1. Total energy requirement including preheating and reaction enthalpy calculations were done using the equilibrium product composition. Carbon and methane formation was significantly reduced in combined reforming than pure dry reforming, while the energy requirements were lower than pure steam reforming. Temperatures of minimum energy requirement were found in the data analysis of combined reforming which were optimum for the process.
Ensemble methods for handwritten digit recognition
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kai; Liisberg, Christian; Salamon, P.
1992-01-01
. It is further shown that it is possible to estimate the ensemble performance as well as the learning curve on a medium-size database. In addition the authors present preliminary analysis of experiments on a large database and show that state-of-the-art performance can be obtained using the ensemble approach...
Sriver, Ryan L.; Forest, Chris E.; Keller, Klaus
2015-07-01
The uncertainties surrounding the initial conditions in Earth system models can considerably influence interpretations about climate trends and variability. Here we present results from a new climate change ensemble experiment using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to analyze the effect of internal variability on regional climate variables that are relevant for decision making. Each simulation is initialized from a unique and dynamically consistent model state sampled from a ~10,000 year fully coupled equilibrium simulation, which captures the internal unforced variability of the coupled Earth system. We find that internal variability has a sizeable contribution to the modeled ranges of temperature and precipitation. The effects increase for more localized regions. The ensemble exhibits skill in simulating key regional climate processes relevant to decision makers, such as seasonal temperature variability and extremes. The presented ensemble framework and results can provide useful resources for uncertainty quantification, integrated assessment, and climate risk management.
Ensemble Methods for MiRNA Target Prediction from Expression Data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thuc Duy Le
Full Text Available microRNAs (miRNAs are short regulatory RNAs that are involved in several diseases, including cancers. Identifying miRNA functions is very important in understanding disease mechanisms and determining the efficacy of drugs. An increasing number of computational methods have been developed to explore miRNA functions by inferring the miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships from data. Each of the methods is developed based on some assumptions and constraints, for instance, assuming linear relationships between variables. For such reasons, computational methods are often subject to the problem of inconsistent performance across different datasets. On the other hand, ensemble methods integrate the results from individual methods and have been proved to outperform each of their individual component methods in theory.In this paper, we investigate the performance of some ensemble methods over the commonly used miRNA target prediction methods. We apply eight different popular miRNA target prediction methods to three cancer datasets, and compare their performance with the ensemble methods which integrate the results from each combination of the individual methods. The validation results using experimentally confirmed databases show that the results of the ensemble methods complement those obtained by the individual methods and the ensemble methods perform better than the individual methods across different datasets. The ensemble method, Pearson+IDA+Lasso, which combines methods in different approaches, including a correlation method, a causal inference method, and a regression method, is the best performed ensemble method in this study. Further analysis of the results of this ensemble method shows that the ensemble method can obtain more targets which could not be found by any of the single methods, and the discovered targets are more statistically significant and functionally enriched. The source codes, datasets, miRNA target predictions by all methods, and
Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP
Staras, Kevin
2016-01-01
We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture. PMID:27760125
Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP.
Shim, Yoonsik; Philippides, Andrew; Staras, Kevin; Husbands, Phil
2016-10-01
We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture.
Analysis of fractals with combined partition
Dedovich, T. G.; Tokarev, M. V.
2016-03-01
The space—time properties in the general theory of relativity, as well as the discreteness and non-Archimedean property of space in the quantum theory of gravitation, are discussed. It is emphasized that the properties of bodies in non-Archimedean spaces coincide with the properties of the field of P-adic numbers and fractals. It is suggested that parton showers, used for describing interactions between particles and nuclei at high energies, have a fractal structure. A mechanism of fractal formation with combined partition is considered. The modified SePaC method is offered for the analysis of such fractals. The BC, PaC, and SePaC methods for determining a fractal dimension and other fractal characteristics (numbers of levels and values of a base of forming a fractal) are considered. It is found that the SePaC method has advantages for the analysis of fractals with combined partition.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olesen, Alexander Neergaard; Christensen, Julie Anja Engelhard; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing;
2016-01-01
(EOG) signals by presenting a method for automatic sleep staging using the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise algorithm, and a random forest classifier. It achieves a high overall accuracy of 82% and a Cohen’s kappa of 0.74 indicating substantial agreement between...
Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.
Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin
2016-01-01
Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.
Making Tree Ensembles Interpretable
Hara, Satoshi; Hayashi, Kohei
2016-01-01
Tree ensembles, such as random forest and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance, whereas their interpretability is critically limited. In this paper, we propose a post processing method that improves the model interpretability of tree ensembles. After learning a complex tree ensembles in a standard way, we approximate it by a simpler model that is interpretable for human. To obtain the simpler model, we derive the EM algorithm minimizing the KL divergence from the ...
Four-dimensional Localization and the Iterative Ensemble Kalman Smoother
Bocquet, M.
2015-12-01
The iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) is a data assimilation method meant for efficiently tracking the state ofnonlinear geophysical models. It combines an ensemble of model states to estimate the errors similarly to the ensemblesquare root Kalman filter, with a 4D-variational analysis performed within the ensemble space. As such it belongs tothe class of ensemble variational methods. Recently introduced 4DEnVar or the 4D-LETKF can be seen as particular casesof the scheme. The IEnKS was shown to outperform 4D-Var, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and smoother, with low-ordermodels in all investigated dynamical regimes. Like any ensemble method, it could require the use of localization of theanalysis when the state space dimension is high. However, localization for the IEnKS is not as straightforward as forthe EnKF. Indeed, localization needs to be defined across time, and it needs to be as much as possible consistent withthe dynamical flow within the data assimilation variational window. We show that a Liouville equation governs the timeevolution of the localization operator, which is linked to the evolution of the error correlations. It is argued thatits time integration strongly depends on the forecast dynamics. Using either covariance localization or domainlocalization, we propose and test several localization strategies meant to address the issue: (i) a constant and uniformlocalization, (ii) the propagation through the window of a restricted set of dominant modes of the error covariancematrix, (iii) the approximate propagation of the localization operator using model covariant local domains. Theseschemes are illustrated on the one-dimensional Lorenz 40-variable model.
Kokorev, V.; Anisimov, O. A.
2013-12-01
Despite significant improvements in the complexity and quality of the global climate models, even the most recent CMIP-5 GCMs differ in results at regional scale. Several studies have tried to assess and quantify the uncertainties of temperature and atmospheric pressure parameters, while the evaluation of precipitation parameters at regional scale is yet to be done. The goal of this study is to perform comprehensive analysis of precipitation uncertainty for Northern Eurasia. To accomplish this goal we contrast selected precipitation parameters from two generations of CMIP5 and CMIP3 GCMs with observations at regional level and suggest the methodology for constructing the optimal ensemble projection. We used data from 744 Russian weather stations to identify 14 regions in Northern Eurasia characterized by coherent changes of temperature characteristics and precipitation. In each region we identified the tipping point, which divide timeseries into baseline period and period of contemporary climate change, and tested the ability of GCMs to simulate precipitation patterns and trends in each region. Ultimately, we ranked GCMs according to their performance in representing regional precipitation parameters. We used this ranking to construct several regional ensembles consisting of different number of high-ranked models and compared results from these optimized ensembles with observations and with the ensemble of all models. The ultimate conclusion of our study is that the methodology based on pre-selection of top ranked models allows narrowing the range of uncertainty in climate projection at regional level. With latest generation of GCMs this methodology could be applied not only to air temperature but also to precipitation parameters. We also found that models from CMIP5 generation demonstrate much higher performance than CMIP3 models in replicating precipitation parameters in the period of contemporary climate change. Acknowledgement. This study is supported by the
Classical and Quantum Ensembles via Multiresolution. II. Wigner Ensembles
2004-01-01
We present the application of the variational-wavelet analysis to the analysis of quantum ensembles in Wigner framework. (Naive) deformation quantization, the multiresolution representations and the variational approach are the key points. We construct the solutions of Wigner-like equations via the multiscale expansions in the generalized coherent states or high-localized nonlinear eigenmodes in the base of the compactly supported wavelets and the wavelet packets. We demonstrate the appearanc...
Thermodynamic Analysis of Combined Cycle Power Plant
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A.K.Tiwari,
2010-04-01
Full Text Available Air Bottoming Cycle (ABC can replace the heat recovery steam generator and the steam turbine of the conventionalcombined cycle plant. The exhaust energy of the topping gas turbine of existing combine cycle is sent to gas-air heat exchange, which heats the air in the secondary gas turbine cycle. In 1980’s the ABC was proposed as an alternative for the conventional steam bottoming cycle. In spite of the cost of reducing hardware installations it could achieve a thermal efficiency of 80%. The complete thermodynamic analysis of the system has been performed by using specially designed programme, enabling the variation of main independent variables. The result shows the gain in net work output as well as efficiency of combined cycle is 35% to 68%.
Drug Combinations: Tests and Analysis with Isoboles.
Tallarida, Ronald J
2016-03-18
Described in this unit are experimental and computational methods to detect and classify drug interactions. In most cases, this relates to two drugs or compounds with overtly similar effects, e.g., two analgesics or two anti-hypertensives. From the dose-response data of the individual drugs, it is possible to generate a curve, the isobole, which defines all dose combinations that are expected to yield a specified effect. The theory underlying the isobole involves the calculation of doses of drug A that are effectively equivalent to doses of drug B with that equivalence determining whether the isobole is linear or nonlinear. In either case, the isobole allows for a comparison with actual combination effects making it possible to determine whether the interaction is synergistic, additive, or sub-additive. Actual as well as illustrative data are employed to demonstrate experimental design and data analysis.
Deur, Killian; Mazouin, Laurent; Fromager, Emmanuel
2017-01-01
Ensemble density functional theory (eDFT) is an exact time-independent alternative to time-dependent DFT (TD-DFT) for the calculation of excitation energies. Despite its formal simplicity and advantages in contrast to TD-DFT (multiple excitations, for example, can be easily taken into account in an ensemble), eDFT is not standard, which is essentially due to the lack of reliable approximate exchange-correlation (x c ) functionals for ensembles. Following Smith et al. [Phys. Rev. B 93, 245131 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevB.93.245131], we propose in this work to construct an exact eDFT for the nontrivial asymmetric Hubbard dimer, thus providing more insight into the weight dependence of the ensemble x c energy in various correlation regimes. For that purpose, an exact analytical expression for the weight-dependent ensemble exchange energy has been derived. The complementary exact ensemble correlation energy has been computed by means of Legendre-Fenchel transforms. Interesting features like discontinuities in the ensemble x c potential in the strongly correlated limit have been rationalized by means of a generalized adiabatic connection formalism. Finally, functional-driven errors induced by ground-state density-functional approximations have been studied. In the strictly symmetric case or in the weakly correlated regime, combining ensemble exact exchange with ground-state correlation functionals gives better ensemble energies than when calculated with the ground-state exchange-correlation functional. However, when approaching the asymmetric equiensemble in the strongly correlated regime, the former approximation leads to highly curved ensemble energies with negative slope which is unphysical. Using both ground-state exchange and correlation functionals gives much better results in that case. In fact, exact ensemble energies are almost recovered in some density domains. The analysis of density-driven errors is left for future work.
PHARMACOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ANTIHYPERTENSIVE DRUG COMBINATIONS USE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. I. Tarlovskaya
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Aim. To pursue pharmacoeconomic analysis of two drug combinations of ACE inhibitor (enalapril and diuretic.Material and methods. Patients with arterial hypertension degree 2 and diabetes mellitus type 2 without ischemic heart disease (n=56 were included into the study. Blood pressure (BP dynamics and cost/effectiveness ratio were evaluated.Results. In group A (fixed combination of original enalapril/hydrochlorothiazide 61% of patients achieved target BP level with initial dose, and the rest 39% of patients – with double dose. In group B (non-fixed combination of generic enalapril/indapamide 60% of patients achieved the target BP with initial dose of drugs, 33% - with double dose of ACE inhibitor, and 7% - with additional amlodipine administration. In patients of group A systolic BP (SBP reduction was 45.82±1.23 mm Hg by the 12th week vs. 40.0±0.81 mm Hg in patients of group B; diastolic BP (DBP reduction was 22.47±1.05 mm Hg and 18.76±0.70 mm Hg, respectively, by the 12th week of treatment. In the first month of treatment costs of target BP achievement was 298.62 rubles per patient in group A, and 299.50 rubles – in group B; by the 12th week of treatment – 629.45 and 631.22 rubles, respectively. Costs of SBP and DBP reduction by 1 mm Hg during 12 weeks of therapy were 13 and 27 rubles per patient, respectively, in group A, and 16 and 34 rubles per patient, respectively, in group B.Conclusion. The original fixed combination (enalapril+hydrochlorothiazide proved to be more clinically effective and more cost effective in the treatment of hypertensive patients in comparison with the non-fixed combination of generic drugs (enalapril+indapamide.
PHARMACOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ANTIHYPERTENSIVE DRUG COMBINATIONS USE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. I. Tarlovskaya
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Aim. To pursue pharmacoeconomic analysis of two drug combinations of ACE inhibitor (enalapril and diuretic.Material and methods. Patients with arterial hypertension degree 2 and diabetes mellitus type 2 without ischemic heart disease (n=56 were included into the study. Blood pressure (BP dynamics and cost/effectiveness ratio were evaluated.Results. In group A (fixed combination of original enalapril/hydrochlorothiazide 61% of patients achieved target BP level with initial dose, and the rest 39% of patients – with double dose. In group B (non-fixed combination of generic enalapril/indapamide 60% of patients achieved the target BP with initial dose of drugs, 33% - with double dose of ACE inhibitor, and 7% - with additional amlodipine administration. In patients of group A systolic BP (SBP reduction was 45.82±1.23 mm Hg by the 12th week vs. 40.0±0.81 mm Hg in patients of group B; diastolic BP (DBP reduction was 22.47±1.05 mm Hg and 18.76±0.70 mm Hg, respectively, by the 12th week of treatment. In the first month of treatment costs of target BP achievement was 298.62 rubles per patient in group A, and 299.50 rubles – in group B; by the 12th week of treatment – 629.45 and 631.22 rubles, respectively. Costs of SBP and DBP reduction by 1 mm Hg during 12 weeks of therapy were 13 and 27 rubles per patient, respectively, in group A, and 16 and 34 rubles per patient, respectively, in group B.Conclusion. The original fixed combination (enalapril+hydrochlorothiazide proved to be more clinically effective and more cost effective in the treatment of hypertensive patients in comparison with the non-fixed combination of generic drugs (enalapril+indapamide.
Probability-weighted ensembles of U.S. county-level climate projections for climate risk analysis
Rasmussen, D J; Kopp, Robert E
2015-01-01
Quantitative assessment of climate change risk requires a method for constructing probabilistic time series of changes in physical climate parameters. Here, we develop two such methods, Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) and Monte Carlo Pattern/Residual (MCPR), and apply them to construct joint probability density functions (PDFs) of temperature and precipitation change over the 21st century for every county in the United States. Both methods produce $likely$ (67% probability) temperature and precipitation projections consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's interpretation of an equal-weighted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, but also provide full PDFs that include tail estimates. For example, both methods indicate that, under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, there is a 5% chance that the contiguous United States could warm by at least 8$^\\circ$C. Variance decomposition of SMME and MCPR projections indicate that background variability dominates...
Malignancy and Abnormality Detection of Mammograms using Classifier Ensembling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nawazish Naveed
2011-07-01
Full Text Available The breast cancer detection and diagnosis is a critical and complex procedure that demands high degree of accuracy. In computer aided diagnostic systems, the breast cancer detection is a two stage procedure. First, to classify the malignant and benign mammograms, while in second stage, the type of abnormality is detected. In this paper, we have developed a novel architecture to enhance the classification of malignant and benign mammograms using multi-classification of malignant mammograms into six abnormality classes. DWT (Discrete Wavelet Transformation features are extracted from preprocessed images and passed through different classifiers. To improve accuracy, results generated by various classifiers are ensembled. The genetic algorithm is used to find optimal weights rather than assigning weights to the results of classifiers on the basis of heuristics. The mammograms declared as malignant by ensemble classifiers are divided into six classes. The ensemble classifiers are further used for multiclassification using one-against-all technique for classification. The output of all ensemble classifiers is combined by product, median and mean rule. It has been observed that the accuracy of classification of abnormalities is more than 97% in case of mean rule. The Mammographic Image Analysis Society dataset is used for experimentation.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Jun Kyung KAY; Hyun Mee KIM; Young-Youn PARK; Joohyung SON
2013-01-01
Using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) implemented at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA),the effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season was evaluated.Because a finite ensemble size causes sampling error in the full forecast probability distribution function (PDF),ensemble size is closely related to the efficiency of the ensemble prediction system.Prediction capability according to doubling the ensemble size was evaluated by increasing the number of ensembles from 24 to 48 in MOGREPS implemented at the KMA.The initial analysis perturbations generated by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) were integrated for 10 days from 22 May to 23 June 2009.Several statistical verification scores were used to measure the accuracy,reliability,and resolution of ensemble probabilistic forecasts for 24 and 48 ensemble member forecasts.Even though the results were not significant,the accuracy of ensemble prediction improved slightly as ensemble size increased,especially for longer forecast times in the Northern Hemisphere.While increasing the number of ensemble members resulted in a slight improvement in resolution as forecast time increased,inconsistent results were obtained for the scores assessing the reliability of ensemble prediction.The overall performance of ensemble prediction in terms of accuracy,resolution,and reliability increased slightly with ensemble size,especially for longer forecast times.
Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jan D. Keller
2008-12-01
Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.
2016-01-01
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts...... is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost. For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method rebuilds the multivariate aspect of the forecast from...... the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.
2015-01-01
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts...... is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost.For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method consists in rebuilding the multivariate aspect of the forecast...... from the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error...
Combining triggers in HEP data analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lendermann, Victor; Herbst, Michael; Krueger, Katja; Schultz-Coulon, Hans-Christian; Stamen, Rainer [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany). Kirchhoff-Institut fuer Physik; Haller, Johannes [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Institut fuer Experimentalphysik
2009-01-15
Modern high-energy physics experiments collect data using dedicated complex multi-level trigger systems which perform an online selection of potentially interesting events. In general, this selection suffers from inefficiencies. A further loss of statistics occurs when the rate of accepted events is artificially scaled down in order to meet bandwidth constraints. An offline analysis of the recorded data must correct for the resulting losses in order to determine the original statistics of the analysed data sample. This is particularly challenging when data samples recorded by several triggers are combined. In this paper we present methods for the calculation of the offline corrections and study their statistical performance. Implications on building and operating trigger systems are discussed. (orig.)
Spectral diagonal ensemble Kalman filters
Kasanický, Ivan; Vejmelka, Martin
2015-01-01
A new type of ensemble Kalman filter is developed, which is based on replacing the sample covariance in the analysis step by its diagonal in a spectral basis. It is proved that this technique improves the aproximation of the covariance when the covariance itself is diagonal in the spectral basis, as is the case, e.g., for a second-order stationary random field and the Fourier basis. The method is extended by wavelets to the case when the state variables are random fields, which are not spatially homogeneous. Efficient implementations by the fast Fourier transform (FFT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are presented for several types of observations, including high-dimensional data given on a part of the domain, such as radar and satellite images. Computational experiments confirm that the method performs well on the Lorenz 96 problem and the shallow water equations with very small ensembles and over multiple analysis cycles.
Document Cluster Ensemble Algorithms Based on Matrix Spectral Analysis%基于矩阵谱分析的文本聚类集成算法
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
徐森; 卢志茂; 顾国昌
2009-01-01
聚类集成技术可有效提高单聚类算法的精度和稳定性,其中的关键问题是如何根据不同的聚类成员组合为更好的聚类结果.文中引入谱聚类算法解决文本聚类集成问题,设计基于正则化拉普拉斯矩阵的谱算法(NLM-SA).该算法基于代数变换,通过求解小规模矩阵的特征值和特征向量间接获得正则化拉普拉斯矩阵的特征向量,并用于后续聚类.进一步研究谱聚类算法的关键思想,设计基于超边转移概率矩阵的谱算法(HTMSA).该算法通过求解超边的低维嵌入间接获得文本的低维嵌入,并用于后续K均值算法.在TREC和Reuters文本集上的实验结果验证NLMSA和HTMSA的有效性,它们都获得比其它基于图划分的集成算法更为优越的结果.HTMSA获得的结果比NLMSA略差,而时间和空间需求则比NLMSA低得多.%Cluster ensemble techniques are effective in improving both the robustness and the stability of the single clustering algorithm. How to combine multiple clusters to yield a final superior clustering result is critical in cluster ensemble. Spectral clustering algorithm is introduced to solve document cluster ensemble problem. Normalized Laplacian matrix-based spectral algorithm (NLMSA) is proposed. According to algebraic transformation, it computes eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a small matrix to obtain the eigenvectors of normalized Laplacian matrix. The key idea of spectral clustering algorithm is further investigated, and hyperedge transition matrix-based spectral algorithm (HTMSA) is proposed. It attains the low dimensional embeddings of documents by those of hyperedges and then the K-means algorithm is used to cluster according to those embedding results of documents. Experimental results on TREC and Reuters document sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. Both NLMSA and HTMSA outperform other cluster ensemble techniques based on graph partitioning. NLMSA obtains better results
The Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) with a Global NWP Model on the Cubed Sphere
Shin, Seoleun; Kang, Ji-Sun; Jo, Youngsoon
2016-07-01
We develop an ensemble data assimilation system using the four-dimensional local ensemble transform kalman filter (LEKTF) for a global hydrostatic numerical weather prediction (NWP) model formulated on the cubed sphere. Forecast-analysis cycles run stably and thus provide newly updated initial states for the model to produce ensemble forecasts every 6 h. Performance of LETKF implemented to the global NWP model is verified using the ECMWF reanalysis data and conventional observations. Global mean values of bias and root mean square difference are significantly reduced by the data assimilation. Besides, statistics of forecast and analysis converge well as the forecast-analysis cycles are repeated. These results suggest that the combined system of LETKF and the global NWP formulated on the cubed sphere shows a promising performance for operational uses.
Ogunnaike, Babatunde A
2006-02-22
Recent experimental evidence about DNA damage response using the p53-Mdm2 system has raised some fundamental questions about the control mechanism employed. In response to DNA damage, an ensemble of cells shows a damped oscillation in p53 expression whose amplitude increases with increased DNA damage--consistent with 'analogue' control. Recent experimental results, however, show that the single cell response is a series of discrete pulses in p53; and with increase in DNA damage, neither the height nor the duration of the pulses change, but the mean number of pulses increase--consistent with 'digital' control. Here we present a system engineering model that uses published data to elucidate this mechanism and resolve the dilemma of how digital behaviour at the single cell level can manifest as analogue ensemble behaviour. First, we develop a dynamic model of the p53-Mdm2 system that produces non-oscillatory responses to a stress signal. Second, we develop a probability model of the distribution of pulses in a cell population, and combine the two with the simplest digital control algorithm to show how oscillatory responses whose amplitudes grow with DNA damage can arise from single cell behaviour in which each single pulse response is independent of the extent of DNA damage. A stochastic simulation of the hypothesized control mechanism reproduces experimental observations remarkably well.
Ensemble manifold regularization.
Geng, Bo; Tao, Dacheng; Xu, Chao; Yang, Linjun; Hua, Xian-Sheng
2012-06-01
We propose an automatic approximation of the intrinsic manifold for general semi-supervised learning (SSL) problems. Unfortunately, it is not trivial to define an optimization function to obtain optimal hyperparameters. Usually, cross validation is applied, but it does not necessarily scale up. Other problems derive from the suboptimality incurred by discrete grid search and the overfitting. Therefore, we develop an ensemble manifold regularization (EMR) framework to approximate the intrinsic manifold by combining several initial guesses. Algorithmically, we designed EMR carefully so it 1) learns both the composite manifold and the semi-supervised learner jointly, 2) is fully automatic for learning the intrinsic manifold hyperparameters implicitly, 3) is conditionally optimal for intrinsic manifold approximation under a mild and reasonable assumption, and 4) is scalable for a large number of candidate manifold hyperparameters, from both time and space perspectives. Furthermore, we prove the convergence property of EMR to the deterministic matrix at rate root-n. Extensive experiments over both synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. A. Velázquez
2013-02-01
Full Text Available Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic^{3} project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e., lumped, semi distributed and distributed models. The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany. Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by global climate models over a reference (1971–2000 and a future (2041–2070 period. The results show that, for our hydrological model ensemble, the choice of model strongly affects the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model.
Iba, Yukito
2000-01-01
``Extended Ensemble Monte Carlo''is a generic term that indicates a set of algorithms which are now popular in a variety of fields in physics and statistical information processing. Exchange Monte Carlo (Metropolis-Coupled Chain, Parallel Tempering), Simulated Tempering (Expanded Ensemble Monte Carlo), and Multicanonical Monte Carlo (Adaptive Umbrella Sampling) are typical members of this family. Here we give a cross-disciplinary survey of these algorithms with special emphasis on the great f...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marin-Garcia Pablo
2010-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.
Wu, Meihong; Liao, Lifang; Luo, Xin; Ye, Xiaoquan; Yao, Yuchen; Chen, Pinnan; Shi, Lei; Huang, Hui; Wu, Yunfeng
2016-01-01
Measuring stride variability and dynamics in children is useful for the quantitative study of gait maturation and neuromotor development in childhood and adolescence. In this paper, we computed the sample entropy (SampEn) and average stride interval (ASI) parameters to quantify the stride series of 50 gender-matched children participants in three age groups. We also normalized the SampEn and ASI values by leg length and body mass for each participant, respectively. Results show that the original and normalized SampEn values consistently decrease over the significance level of the Mann-Whitney U test (p algorithms were used to effectively distinguish the children's gait patterns. These ensemble learning algorithms both provided excellent gait classification results in terms of overall accuracy (≥90%), recall (≥0.8), and precision (≥0.8077).
Classical and Quantum Ensembles via Multiresolution. II. Wigner Ensembles
Fedorova, A N; Fedorova, Antonina N.; Zeitlin, Michael G.
2004-01-01
We present the application of the variational-wavelet analysis to the analysis of quantum ensembles in Wigner framework. (Naive) deformation quantization, the multiresolution representations and the variational approach are the key points. We construct the solutions of Wigner-like equations via the multiscale expansions in the generalized coherent states or high-localized nonlinear eigenmodes in the base of the compactly supported wavelets and the wavelet packets. We demonstrate the appearance of (stable) localized patterns (waveletons) and consider entanglement and decoherence as possible applications.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHENG Fei; ZHU Jiang
2010-01-01
The initial ensemble perturbations for an ensemble data assimilation system are expected to reasonably sample model uncertainty at the time of analysis to further reduce analysis uncertainty.Therefore,the careful choice of an initial ensemble perturbation method that dynamically cycles ensemble perturbations is required for the optimal performance of the system.Based on the multivariate empirical onhogonal function(MEOF)method,a new ensemble initialization scheme is developed to generate balanced initial perturbations for the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)data assimilation,with a reasonable consideration of the physical relationships between different model variables.The scheme is applied in assimilation experiments with a global spectral atmospheric model and with real observations.The proposed perturbation method is compared to the commonly used method of spatially-correlated random perturbations.The comparisons show that the model uncertainties prior to the first analysis time,which are forecasted from the balanced ensemble initial fields,maintain a much more reasonable spread and a more accurate forecast error covariance than those from the randomly perturbed initial fields.The analysis results are further improved by the balanced ensemble initialization scheme due to more accurate background information.Also,a 20-day continuous assimilation experiment shows that the ensemble spreads for each model variable are still retained in reasonable ranges without considering additional perturbations or inflations during the assimilation cycles,while the ensemble spreads from the randomly perturbed initialization scheme decrease and collapse rapidly.
A Localized Ensemble Kalman Smoother
Butala, Mark D.
2012-01-01
Numerous geophysical inverse problems prove difficult because the available measurements are indirectly related to the underlying unknown dynamic state and the physics governing the system may involve imperfect models or unobserved parameters. Data assimilation addresses these difficulties by combining the measurements and physical knowledge. The main challenge in such problems usually involves their high dimensionality and the standard statistical methods prove computationally intractable. This paper develops and addresses the theoretical convergence of a new high-dimensional Monte-Carlo approach called the localized ensemble Kalman smoother.
Ensemble data assimilation with an adjusted forecast spread
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sabrina Rainwater
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Ensemble data assimilation typically evolves an ensemble of model states whose spread is intended to represent the algorithm's uncertainty about the state of the physical system that produces the data. The analysis phase treats the forecast ensemble as a random sample from a background distribution, and it transforms the ensemble according to the background and observation error statistics to provide an appropriate sample for the next forecast phase. We find that in the presence of model nonlinearity and model error, it can be fruitful to rescale the ensemble spread prior to the forecast and then reverse this rescaling after the forecast. We call this approach forecast spread adjustment, which we discuss and test in this article using an ensemble Kalman filter and a 2005 model due to Lorenz. We argue that forecast spread adjustment provides a tunable parameter, that is, complementary to covariance inflation, which cumulatively increases ensemble spread to compensate for underestimation of uncertainty. We also show that as the adjustment parameter approaches zero, the filter approaches the extended Kalman filter if the ensemble size is sufficiently large. We find that varying the adjustment parameter can significantly reduce analysis and forecast errors in some cases. We evaluate how the improvement provided by forecast spread adjustment depends on ensemble size, observation error and model error. Our results indicate that the technique is most effective for small ensembles, small observation error and large model error, though the effectiveness depends significantly on the nature of the model error.
Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance
Ye, Qiang
2010-01-01
Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Meihong Wu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Measuring stride variability and dynamics in children is useful for the quantitative study of gait maturation and neuromotor development in childhood and adolescence. In this paper, we computed the sample entropy (SampEn and average stride interval (ASI parameters to quantify the stride series of 50 gender-matched children participants in three age groups. We also normalized the SampEn and ASI values by leg length and body mass for each participant, respectively. Results show that the original and normalized SampEn values consistently decrease over the significance level of the Mann-Whitney U test (p<0.01 in children of 3–14 years old, which indicates the stride irregularity has been significantly ameliorated with the body growth. The original and normalized ASI values are also significantly changing when comparing between any two groups of young (aged 3–5 years, middle (aged 6–8 years, and elder (aged 10–14 years children. Such results suggest that healthy children may better modulate their gait cadence rhythm with the development of their musculoskeletal and neurological systems. In addition, the AdaBoost.M2 and Bagging algorithms were used to effectively distinguish the children’s gait patterns. These ensemble learning algorithms both provided excellent gait classification results in terms of overall accuracy (≥90%, recall (≥0.8, and precision (≥0.8077.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. A. Velázquez
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic^{3} project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models. The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany. Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971–2000 and a future (2041–2070 periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.
Schneeweis, Lumelle A; Obenauer-Kutner, Linda; Kaur, Parminder; Yamniuk, Aaron P; Tamura, James; Jaffe, Neil; O'Mara, Brian W; Lindsay, Stuart; Doyle, Michael; Bryson, James
2015-12-01
Domain antibodies (dAbs) are single immunoglobulin domains that form the smallest functional unit of an antibody. This study investigates the behavior of these small proteins when covalently attached to the polyethylene glycol (PEG) moiety that is necessary for extending the half-life of a dAb. The effect of the 40 kDa PEG on hydrodynamic properties, particle behavior, and receptor binding of the dAb has been compared by both ensemble solution and surface methods [light scattering, isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC), surface Plasmon resonance (SPR)] and single-molecule atomic force microscopy (AFM) methods (topography, recognition imaging, and force microscopy). The large PEG dominates the properties of the dAb-PEG conjugate such as a hydrodynamic radius that corresponds to a globular protein over four times its size and a much reduced association rate. We have used AFM single-molecule studies to determine the mechanism of PEG-dependent reductions in the effectiveness of the dAb observed by SPR kinetic studies. Recognition imaging showed that all of the PEGylated dAb molecules are active, suggesting that some may transiently become inactive if PEG sterically blocks binding. This helps explain the disconnect between the SPR, determined kinetically, and the force microscopy and ITC results that demonstrated that PEG does not change the binding energy.
Ammann, C. M.; Vigh, J. L.; Brown, B.; Gilleland, E.; Fowler, T.; Kaatz, L.; Buja, L.; Rood, R. B.; Barsugli, J. J.; Guentchev, G.
2013-12-01
For climate change impact applications to properly incorporate the current state of science and its associated broad range of data, good intentions are commonly confronted by the realities of interoperability issues, by the lack of transparency of assumptions behind complex modeling and experimental design frameworks, and even by ordinary data handling and management hurdles due to the enormous volumes of data. Yet, well-informed choices in data selection and insightful uncertainty exploration need to be able to draw from all this information to develop suitable products and indices for the applications. Because climate impacts are often complex and require careful integration into a multi-stressor environment, simple one-way delivery of climate data will often miss the specific needs on the ground. Product development and knowledge integration are a inherently iterative processes, requiring direct collaborations between the scientists and the application specialists. To be successful in efficiently and effectively extracting useful information from the climate change information archives, efficient tools for analysis and scenario-development are necessary. Standardized intercomparison of climate data is a necessary foundation to identify strategies to investigate probabilistic outcomes and to explore process-driven outcomes that are likely, plausible or maybe just possible. Based on the extensive evaluation tools for downscaled climate data provided by the National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) platform, we illustrate analysis and scenario-development tools that help explore different sources of uncertainty and allow for sampling of realistic time-series to assess potential impacts for targeted applications. This work combines rigorous evaluation and validation of climate projection data and facilitates assessments of scenarios in context of observed variability and change.
Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares
Guerra, J A; Uritsky, V M
2015-01-01
We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). Using the probabilistic forecasts from three models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC) and the NOAA forecasts, we developed an ensemble forecast by linearly combining the flaring probabilities from all four methods. Performance-based combination weights were calculated using a Monte Carlo-type algorithm by applying a decision threshold $P_{th}$ to the combined probabilities and maximizing the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). Using the probabilities and events time series from 13 recent solar active regions (2012 - 2014), we found that a linear combination of probabilities can improve both probabilistic and categorical forecasts. Combination weights vary with the applied threshold and none of the tested individual forecasting models seem to provide more accurate predictions than the others for all values of $P_{th}$. According to the maximum values of HSS, a performance-based weights ...
Disease-associated mutations that alter the RNA structural ensemble.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Matthew Halvorsen
2010-08-01
Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS often identify disease-associated mutations in intergenic and non-coding regions of the genome. Given the high percentage of the human genome that is transcribed, we postulate that for some observed associations the disease phenotype is caused by a structural rearrangement in a regulatory region of the RNA transcript. To identify such mutations, we have performed a genome-wide analysis of all known disease-associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs from the Human Gene Mutation Database (HGMD that map to the untranslated regions (UTRs of a gene. Rather than using minimum free energy approaches (e.g. mFold, we use a partition function calculation that takes into consideration the ensemble of possible RNA conformations for a given sequence. We identified in the human genome disease-associated SNPs that significantly alter the global conformation of the UTR to which they map. For six disease-states (Hyperferritinemia Cataract Syndrome, beta-Thalassemia, Cartilage-Hair Hypoplasia, Retinoblastoma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD, and Hypertension, we identified multiple SNPs in UTRs that alter the mRNA structural ensemble of the associated genes. Using a Boltzmann sampling procedure for sub-optimal RNA structures, we are able to characterize and visualize the nature of the conformational changes induced by the disease-associated mutations in the structural ensemble. We observe in several cases (specifically the 5' UTRs of FTL and RB1 SNP-induced conformational changes analogous to those observed in bacterial regulatory Riboswitches when specific ligands bind. We propose that the UTR and SNP combinations we identify constitute a "RiboSNitch," that is a regulatory RNA in which a specific SNP has a structural consequence that results in a disease phenotype. Our SNPfold algorithm can help identify RiboSNitches by leveraging GWAS data and an analysis of the mRNA structural ensemble.
Validation of the Air Force Weather Agency Ensemble Prediction Systems
2014-03-27
to deterministic models. Results from ensemble weather input into operational risk management ( ORM ) destruction of enemy air defense simulations...growth during the analysis period (Toth and Kalnay, 1993; Toth and Kalnay, 1997). From this framework the ensemble transform bred vector, ensemble...features. Each of its 10 members is run independently using different configurations in the framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter
1990-01-01
We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...
Wakefield, M. E.
1982-01-01
Protective garment ensemble with internally-mounted environmental- control unit contains its own air supply. Alternatively, a remote-environmental control unit or an air line is attached at the umbilical quick disconnect. Unit uses liquid air that is vaporized to provide both breathing air and cooling. Totally enclosed garment protects against toxic substances.
Setup Analysis: Combining SMED with Other Tools
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stadnicka Dorota
2015-02-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to propose the methodology for the setup analysis, which can be implemented mainly in small and medium enterprises which are not convinced to implement the setups development. The methodology was developed after the research which determined the problem. Companies still have difficulties with a long setup time. Many of them do nothing to decrease this time. A long setup is not a sufficient reason for companies to undertake any actions towards the setup time reduction. To encourage companies to implement SMED it is essential to make some analyses of changeovers in order to discover problems. The methodology proposed can really encourage the management to take a decision about the SMED implementation, and that was verified in a production company. The setup analysis methodology is made up of seven steps. Four of them concern a setups analysis in a chosen area of a company, such as a work stand which is a bottleneck with many setups. The goal is to convince the management to begin actions concerning the setups improvement. The last three steps are related to a certain setup and, there, the goal is to reduce a setup time and the risk of problems which can appear during the setup. In this paper, the tools such as SMED, Pareto analysis, statistical analysis, FMEA and other were used.
Combination and Integration of Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philipp Mayring
2001-02-01
Full Text Available In this paper, I am going to outline ways of combining qualitative and quantitative steps of analysis on five levels. On the technical level, programs for the computer-aided analysis of qualitative data offer various combinations. Where the data are concerned, the employment of categories (for instance by using qualitative content analysis allows for combining qualitative and quantitative forms of data analysis. On the individual level, the creation of types and the inductive generalisation of cases allow for proceeding from individual case material to quantitative generalisations. As for research design, different models can be distinguished (preliminary study, generalisation, elaboration, triangulation which combine qualitative and quantitative steps of analysis. Where the logic of research is concerned, it can be shown that an extended process model which combined qualitative and quantitative research can be appropriate and thus lead to an integration of the two approaches. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs010162
Ritzefeld, Markus; Walhorn, Volker; Kleineberg, Christin; Bieker, Adeline; Kock, Klaus; Herrmann, Christian; Anselmetti, Dario; Sewald, Norbert
2013-11-19
A combined approach based on isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC), fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments, circular dichroism spectroscopy (CD), atomic force microscopy (AFM) dynamic force spectroscopy (DFS), and surface plasmon resonance (SPR) was applied to elucidate the mechanism of protein-DNA complex formation and the impact of protein dimerization of the DNA-binding domain of PhoB (PhoB(DBD)). These insights can be translated to related members of the family of winged helix-turn-helix proteins. One central question was the assembly of the trimeric complex formed by two molecules of PhoB(DBD) and two cognate binding sites of a single oligonucleotide. In addition to the native protein WT-PhoB(DBD), semisynthetic covalently linked dimers with different linker lengths were studied. The ITC, SPR, FRET, and CD results indicate a positive cooperative binding mechanism and a decisive contribution of dimerization on the complex stability. Furthermore, an alanine scan was performed and binding of the corresponding point mutants was analyzed by both techniques to discriminate between different binding types involved in the protein-DNA interaction and to compare the information content of the two methods DFS and SPR. In light of the published crystal structure, four types of contribution to the recognition process of the pho box by the protein PhoB(DBD) could be differentiated and quantified. Consequently, it could be shown that investigating the interactions between DNA and proteins with complementary techniques is necessary to fully understand the corresponding recognition process.
Combination of structural reliability and interval analysis
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Zhiping Qiu; Di Yang; saac Elishakoff
2008-01-01
In engineering applications,probabilistic reliability theory appears to be presently the most important method,however,in many cases precise probabilistic reliability theory cannot be considered as adequate and credible model of the real state of actual affairs.In this paper,we developed a hybrid of probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability theory,which describes the structural uncertain parameters as interval variables when statistical data are found insufficient.By using the interval analysis,a new method for calculating the interval of the structural reliability as well as the reliability index is introduced in this paper,and the traditional probabilistic theory is incorporated with the interval analysis.Moreover,the new method preserves the useful part of the traditional probabilistic reliability theory,but removes the restriction of its strict requirement on data acquisition.Example is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed theory.
Multiscale macromolecular simulation: role of evolving ensembles.
Singharoy, A; Joshi, H; Ortoleva, P J
2012-10-22
Multiscale analysis provides an algorithm for the efficient simulation of macromolecular assemblies. This algorithm involves the coevolution of a quasiequilibrium probability density of atomic configurations and the Langevin dynamics of spatial coarse-grained variables denoted order parameters (OPs) characterizing nanoscale system features. In practice, implementation of the probability density involves the generation of constant OP ensembles of atomic configurations. Such ensembles are used to construct thermal forces and diffusion factors that mediate the stochastic OP dynamics. Generation of all-atom ensembles at every Langevin time step is computationally expensive. Here, multiscale computation for macromolecular systems is made more efficient by a method that self-consistently folds in ensembles of all-atom configurations constructed in an earlier step, history, of the Langevin evolution. This procedure accounts for the temporal evolution of these ensembles, accurately providing thermal forces and diffusions. It is shown that efficiency and accuracy of the OP-based simulations is increased via the integration of this historical information. Accuracy improves with the square root of the number of historical timesteps included in the calculation. As a result, CPU usage can be decreased by a factor of 3-8 without loss of accuracy. The algorithm is implemented into our existing force-field based multiscale simulation platform and demonstrated via the structural dynamics of viral capsomers.
Large margin classifier-based ensemble tracking
Wang, Yuru; Liu, Qiaoyuan; Yin, Minghao; Wang, ShengSheng
2016-07-01
In recent years, many studies consider visual tracking as a two-class classification problem. The key problem is to construct a classifier with sufficient accuracy in distinguishing the target from its background and sufficient generalize ability in handling new frames. However, the variable tracking conditions challenges the existing methods. The difficulty mainly comes from the confused boundary between the foreground and background. This paper handles this difficulty by generalizing the classifier's learning step. By introducing the distribution data of samples, the classifier learns more essential characteristics in discriminating the two classes. Specifically, the samples are represented in a multiscale visual model. For features with different scales, several large margin distribution machine (LDMs) with adaptive kernels are combined in a Baysian way as a strong classifier. Where, in order to improve the accuracy and generalization ability, not only the margin distance but also the sample distribution is optimized in the learning step. Comprehensive experiments are performed on several challenging video sequences, through parameter analysis and field comparison, the proposed LDM combined ensemble tracker is demonstrated to perform with sufficient accuracy and generalize ability in handling various typical tracking difficulties.
Image analysis and microscopy: a useful combination
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pinotti L.
2009-01-01
Full Text Available The TSE Roadmap published in 2005 (DG for Health and Consumer Protection, 2005 suggests that short and medium term (2005-2009 amendments to control BSE policy should include “a relaxation of certain measures of the current total feed ban when certain conditions are met”. The same document noted “the starting point when revising the current feed ban provisions should be risk-based but at the same time taking into account the control tools in place to evaluate and ensure the proper implementation of this feed ban”. The clear implication is that adequate analytical methods to detect constituents of animal origin in feedstuffs are required. The official analytical method for the detection of constituents of animal origin in feedstuffs is the microscopic examination technique as described in Commission Directive 2003/126/EC of 23 December 2003 [OJ L 339, 24.12.2003, 78]. Although the microscopic method is usually able to distinguish fish from land animal material, it is often unable to distinguish between different terrestrial animals. Fulfillments of the requirements of Regulation 1774/2002/EC laying down health rules concerning animal by-products not intended for human consumption, clearly implies that it must be possible to identify the origin animal materials, at higher taxonomic levels than in the past. Thus improvements in all methods of detecting constituents of animal origin are required, including the microscopic method. This article will examine the problem of meat and bone meal in animal feeds, and the use of microscopic methods in association with computer image analysis to identify the source species of these feedstuff contaminants. Image processing, integrated with morphometric measurements can provide accurate and reliable results and can be a very useful aid to the analyst in the characterization, analysis and control of feedstuffs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Dietrich
2009-08-01
Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.
Firth, W J; Labeyrie, G; Camara, A; Gomes, P; Ackemann, T
2016-01-01
We explore various models for the pattern forming instability in a laser-driven cloud of cold two-level atoms with a plane feedback mirror. Focus is on the combined treatment of nonlinear propagation in a diffractively thick medium and the boundary condition given by feedback. The combined presence of purely transverse transmission gratings and reflection gratings on wavelength scale is addressed. Different truncation levels of the Fourier expansion of the dielectric susceptibility in terms of these gratings are discussed and compared to literature. A formalism to calculate the exact solution for the homogenous state in presence of absorption is presented. The relationship between the counterpropagating beam instability and the feedback instability is discussed. Feedback reduces the threshold by a factor of two under optimal conditions. Envelope curves which bound all possible threshold curves for varying mirror distances are calculated. The results are comparing well to experimental results regarding the obs...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marco Bellone
2013-12-01
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease management and prevention represent the leading cost driver in Italian healthcare expenditure. In order to reach the target blood pressure, a large majority of patients require simultaneous administration of multiple antihypertensive agents.OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic impact of the use of fixed dose combinations of antihypertensive agents, compared to the extemporary combination of the same principles.METHODS: A cost minimization analysis was conducted to determine the pharmaceutical daily cost of five fixed dose combinations (olmesartan 20 mg + amlodipine 5 mg, perindopril 5 mg + amlodipine 5 mg, enalapril 20 mg + lercanidipine 10 mg, felodipine 5 mg + ramipril 5 mg, and delapril 30 mg + manidipine 10 mg compared with extemporary combination of the same principles in the perspective of the Italian NHS. Daily acquisition costs are estimated based on current Italian prices and tariffs.RESULTS: In three cases the use of fixed‑dose combination instead of extemporary combination induces a lower daily cost. Fixed combination treatment with delapril 30 mg + manidipine 10 mg induces greater cost savings for the National Health System (95,47 €/pts/year, as compared to free drugs combination therapy.CONCLUSIONS: Compared with free drug combinations, fixed‑dose combinations of antihypertensive agents are associated with lower daily National Health Service acquisition costs.http://dx.doi.org/10.7175/fe.v14i4.886
Friction Signal Denoising Using Complete Ensemble EMD with Adaptive Noise and Mutual Information
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chengwei Li
2015-08-01
Full Text Available During the measurement of friction force, the measured signal generally contains noise. To remove the noise and preserve the important features of the signal, a hybrid filtering method is introduced that uses the mutual information and a new waveform. This new waveform is the difference between the original signal and the sum of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs, which are obtained by empirical mode decomposition (EMD or its improved versions. To evaluate the filter performance for the friction signal, ensemble EMD (EEMD, complementary ensemble EMD (CEEMD, and complete ensemble EMD with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN are employed in combination with the proposed filtering method. The combination is used to filter the synthesizing signals at first. For the filtering of the simulation signal, the filtering effect is compared under conditions of different ensemble number, sampling frequency, and the input signal-noise ratio, respectively. Results show that CEEMDAN outperforms other signal filtering methods. In particular, this method is successful in filtering the friction signal as evaluated by the de-trended fluctuation analysis (DFA algorithm.
Ensembles and their modules as objects of cartosemiotic inquiry
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hansgeorg Schlichtmann
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The structured set of signs in a map face -- here called map-face aggregate or MFA -- and the associated marginal notes make up an ensemble of modules or components (modular ensemble. Such ensembles are recognized where groups of entries are intuitively viewed as complex units, which includes the case that entries are consulted jointly and thus are involved in the same process of sign reception. Modular ensembles are amenable to semiotic study, just as are written or pictorial stories. Four kinds (one of them mentioned above are discussed in detail, two involving single MFAs, the other two being assemblages of maps, such as atlases. In terms of their internal structure, two types are recognized: the combinate (or grouping, in which modules are directly linked by combinatorial relations (example above, and the cumulate (or collection (of documents, in which modules are indirectly related through some conceptual commonality (example: series of geological maps. The discussion then turns to basic points concerning modular ensembles (identification of a module, internal organization of an ensemble, and characteristics which establish an ensemble as a unit and further to a few general semiotic concepts as they relate to the present research. Since this paper originated as a reaction to several of A. Wolodtschenko’s recent publications, it concludes with comments on some of his arguments which pertain to modular ensembles.
Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts
Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian
2016-04-01
Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative
Götz, Th; Stadler, L.; Fraunhofer, G.; Tomé, A. M.; Hausner, H.; Lang, E. W.
2017-02-01
Objective. We propose a combination of a constrained independent component analysis (cICA) with an ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze electroencephalographic recordings from depressed or schizophrenic subjects during olfactory stimulation. Approach. EEMD serves to extract intrinsic modes (IMFs) underlying the recorded EEG time. The latter then serve as reference signals to extract the most similar underlying independent component within a constrained ICA. The extracted modes are further analyzed considering their power spectra. Main results. The analysis of the extracted modes reveals clear differences in the related power spectra between the disease characteristics of depressed and schizophrenic patients. Such differences appear in the high frequency γ-band in the intrinsic modes, but also in much more detail in the low frequency range in the α-, θ- and δ-bands. Significance. The proposed method provides various means to discriminate both disease pictures in a clinical environment.
Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering
Hoel, Hakon
2016-06-14
This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.
Development of an ensemble prediction system for ocean surface waves in a coastal area
Behrens, Arno
2015-04-01
An ensemble prediction system for ocean surface waves has been developed and applied on a local scale to the German Bight and the western Baltic Sea. U10-wind fields generated by the COSMO-DE-EPS upstream forecast chain of the German Met Service (DWD: Deutscher Wetterdienst) have been used as the driving force for the third-generation spectral wave model WAM. The atmospheric chain includes four different global models that provide boundary values for four regional COSMO-EU realisations. Each of those drive five COSMO-DE members, respectively, with different sets of physical parameterisations, so that finally 20 members are available to run 20 corresponding wave ensemble members of the coastal wave model CWAM (Coastal WAve Model) for the German Bight and the western Baltic Sea. It is the first time that in an ensemble prediction system for ocean waves, an atmospheric model of such a fine spatial resolution of 2.8 km has been combined with a wave model running on a model grid with a mesh size of 900 m only. Test runs with the wave ensemble prediction system have been executed for two entire months (April 2013 and June 2014) and for an 8-day storm case (Xaver) in December 2013 in order to check whether such a system could be a reasonable step to improve the future operational wave forecasts of the DWD. The results computed by the different wave model members agree fairly well with available buoy data. The differences between the results for the integrated wave parameters of the individual members are small only, but more pronounced in extreme storm situations. Finally, the statistical analysis of the comparisons with measurements show without exception slightly improved values for the ensemble mean of the wave ensemble members compared with the usual deterministic routine control run.
Krakovska, S.; Balabukh, V.; Palamarchuk, L.; Djukel, G.; Gnatiuk, N.
2012-04-01
intensive rises of surface air temperature and average temperature of the troposphere (a thickness of 1000-500hPa layer) were found in the investigated region that together with increase of moisture content of the atmosphere led to rise of free convection level and convectively unstable layers of the atmosphere reached almost to 100hPa. The later resulted in an essential increase (almost twice) of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and, accordingly, speed of updrafts. Ensemble of seven runs of Regional Climate Models (RCM) driven by four Atmosphere and Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) from the ENSEMBLES database was applied in order to obtain projected values of air temperature and precipitation changes for 2021-2050 period within the Dniester basin on a monthly basis. To make calculations more accurate the Dniester basin was subdivided into 3 regions every with 2 subregions according to river geomorphology and topography. Verification of RCM on control 1971-2000 period by E-Obs and stations' data has allowed to obtain optimum ensembles of RCM for every subregion and climate characteristic. Note, that just two regional climate models REMO and RCA both driven by ECHAM5 provided the best results either for all delineated regions or for the entire Dniester basin. Projections for 2021-2050 period were calculated from the same obtained optimum ensembles of RCM as for the control one. More or less uniform air temperature rise is expected in all subregions and months by 0.7-1.7 oC. But projections for precipitation change are more disperse: within a few per cents for annual sums, but almost 20% less for the middle and lower Dniester in August and October (drought risk) and over 15% more for the high flow of the river in September and December (flood risk). Indices of extremes recommended by ECA&D were calculated from daily data of REMO and RCA A1B runs for control and projected periods. The analysis of precipitation extremes (SDII, RX1day, RX5day, etc.) has
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kazuo Saito
2012-01-01
forecasts from the LETKF analysis were improved and some of them became comparable to those of the mesoscale 4D-VAR analyses based on the JMA's operational data assimilation system. These results show the importance of LBPs in the MBD method and LETKF. LBPs are critical not only to ameliorate the underestimation of the ensemble spread in the ensemble forecast but also to produce better initial perturbations and to improve the LETKF analysis.
Critical behavior in topological ensembles
Bulycheva, K; Nechaev, S
2014-01-01
We consider the relation between three physical problems: 2D directed lattice random walks in an external magnetic field, ensembles of torus knots, and 5d Abelian SUSY gauge theory with massless hypermultiplet in $\\Omega$ background. All these systems exhibit the critical behavior typical for the "area+length" statistics of grand ensembles of 2D directed paths. In particular, using the combinatorial description, we have found the new critical behavior in the ensembles of the torus knots and in the instanton ensemble in 5d gauge theory. The relation with the integrable model is discussed.
Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars;
2005-01-01
The Ensemble project investigated the use of meteorological ensemble fore-casts for the prognosis of uncertainty of the forecasts, and found a good method to make use of ensemble forecasts. This method was then tried based on ensembles from ECMWF in formof a demo application for both the Nysted...... offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...
Tests of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation
Meng, Zhiyong
This dissertation examines the performance of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) implemented in a mesoscale model in increasingly realistic contexts from under a perfect model assumption and in the presence of significant model error with synthetic observations to real-world data assimilation in comparison to the three-dimensional variational (3DVar) method via both case study and month-long experiments. The EnKF is shown to be promising for future application in operational data assimilation practice. The EnKF with synthetic observations, which is implemented in the mesoscale model MM5, is very effective in keeping the analysis close to the truth under the perfect model assumption. The EnKF is most effective in reducing larger-scale errors but less effective in reducing errors at smaller, marginally resolvable scales. In the presence of significant model errors from physical parameterization schemes, the EnKF performs reasonably well though sometimes it can be significantly degraded compared to its performance under the perfect model assumption. Using a combination of different physical parameterization schemes in the ensemble (the so-called "multi-scheme" ensemble) can significantly improve filter performance due to the resulting better background error covariance and a smaller ensemble bias. The EnKF performs differently for different flow regimes possibly due to scale- and flow-dependent error growth dynamics and predictability. Real-data (including soundings, profilers and surface observations) are assimilated by directly comparing the EnKF and 3DVar and both are implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. A case study and month-long experiments show that the EnKF is efficient in tracking observations in terms of both prior forecast and posterior analysis. The EnKF performs consistently better than 3DVar for the time period of interest due to the benefit of the EnKF from both using ensemble mean for state estimation and using a flow
Deterministic entanglement of Rydberg ensembles by engineered dissipation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dasari, Durga; Mølmer, Klaus
2014-01-01
We propose a scheme that employs dissipation to deterministically generate entanglement in an ensemble of strongly interacting Rydberg atoms. With a combination of microwave driving between different Rydberg levels and a resonant laser coupling to a short lived atomic state, the ensemble can...... be driven towards a dark steady state that entangles all atoms. The long-range resonant dipole-dipole interaction between different Rydberg states extends the entanglement beyond the van der Walls interaction range with perspectives for entangling large and distant ensembles....
An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Based on Ensemble Technique
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
SHI Yan; HUANG Cong-ming
2006-01-01
An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm based on ensemble technique is presented. The algorithm combines some previous best positions (pbest) of the particles to get an ensemble position (Epbest), which is used to replace the global best position (gbest). It is compared with the standard PSO algorithm invented by Kennedy and Eberhart and some improved PSO algorithms based on three different benchmark functions. The simulation results show that the improved PSO based on ensemble technique can get better solutions than the standard PSO and some other improved algorithms under all test cases.
Ensemble inequivalence: Landau theory and the ABC model
Cohen, O.; Mukamel, D.
2012-12-01
It is well known that systems with long-range interactions may exhibit different phase diagrams when studied within two different ensembles. In many of the previously studied examples of ensemble inequivalence, the phase diagrams differ only when the transition in one of the ensembles is first order. By contrast, in a recent study of a generalized ABC model, the canonical and grand-canonical ensembles of the model were shown to differ even when they both exhibit a continuous transition. Here we show that the order of the transition where ensemble inequivalence may occur is related to the symmetry properties of the order parameter associated with the transition. This is done by analyzing the Landau expansion of a generic model with long-range interactions. The conclusions drawn from the generic analysis are demonstrated for the ABC model by explicit calculation of its Landau expansion.
Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bensema, Kevin; Gosink, Luke; Obermaier, Harald; Joy, Kenneth I.
2016-10-01
Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space. While this approach helps address conceptual and parametric uncertainties, the ensemble datasets produced by this technique present a special challenge to visualization researchers as the ensemble dataset records a distribution of possible values for each location in the domain. Contemporary visualization approaches that rely solely on summary statistics (e.g., mean and variance) cannot convey the detailed information encoded in ensemble distributions that are paramount to ensemble analysis; summary statistics provide no information about modality classification and modality persistence. To address this problem, we propose a novel technique that classifies high-variance locations based on the modality of the distribution of ensemble predictions. Additionally, we develop a set of confidence metrics to inform the end-user of the quality of fit between the distribution at a given location and its assigned class. We apply a similar method to time-varying ensembles to illustrate the relationship between peak variance and bimodal or multimodal behavior. These classification schemes enable a deeper understanding of the behavior of the ensemble members by distinguishing between distributions that can be described by a single tendency and distributions which reflect divergent trends in the ensemble.
On a Combined Analysis Framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
窦瑞芳
2015-01-01
When people communicate,they do not only use language,that is,a single mode of communication,but also simultaneously use body languages,eye contacts,pictures,etc,which is called multimodal communication. The multimodal communication,as a matter of fact,is the most natural way of communication.Therefore,in order to make a complete discourse analysis,all the modes involved in an interaction or discourse should be taken into account and the new analysis framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis ought to be created to move forward such type of analysis.In this passage,the author makes a tentative move to shape a new analysis framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis.
On a Combined Analysis Framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
窦瑞芳
2015-01-01
When people communicate,they do not only use language,that is,a single mode of communication,but also simultaneously use body languages,eye contacts,pictures,etc,which is called multimodal communication.The multimodal communication,as a matter of fact,is the most natural way of communication.Therefore,in order to make a complete discourse analysis,all the modes involved in an interaction or discourse should be taken into account and the new analysis framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis ought to be created to move forward such type of analysis.In this passage,the author makes a tentative move to shape a new analysis framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis.
Ensembles of probability estimation trees for customer churn prediction
2010-01-01
Customer churn prediction is one of the most, important elements tents of a company's Customer Relationship Management, (CRM) strategy In tins study, two strategies are investigated to increase the lift. performance of ensemble classification models, i.e (1) using probability estimation trees (PETs) instead of standard decision trees as base classifiers; and (n) implementing alternative fusion rules based on lift weights lot the combination of ensemble member's outputs Experiments ale conduct...
ESPC Coupled Global Ensemble Design
2014-09-30
coupled system infrastructure and forecasting capabilities. Initial operational capability is targeted for 2018. APPROACH 1. It is recognized...provided will be the probability distribution function (PDF) of environmental conditions. It is expected that this distribution will have skill. To...system would be the initial capability for ensemble forecasts . Extensions to fully coupled ensembles would be the next step. 2. Develop an extended
Combining Conversation Analysis and Nexus Analysis to explore hospital practices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paasch, Bettina Sletten
2016-01-01
Analysis (Streeck, Goodwin, & LeBaron, 2011) to zoom in on the situated accomplishment of interactions between nurses, patients and mobile work phones, and Nexus Analysis (Scollon & Scollon, 2004) to connect the situated actions with the historical, cultural and political currents circulating the moment...
A Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filter
Tsyrulnikov, Michael; Rakitko, Alexander
2017-01-01
A new ensemble filter that allows for the uncertainty in the prior distribution is proposed and tested. The filter relies on the conditional Gaussian distribution of the state given the model-error and predictability-error covariance matrices. The latter are treated as random matrices and updated in a hierarchical Bayes scheme along with the state. The (hyper)prior distribution of the covariance matrices is assumed to be inverse Wishart. The new Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Filter (HBEF) assimilates ensemble members as generalized observations and allows ordinary observations to influence the covariances. The actual probability distribution of the ensemble members is allowed to be different from the true one. An approximation that leads to a practicable analysis algorithm is proposed. The new filter is studied in numerical experiments with a doubly stochastic one-variable model of "truth". The model permits the assessment of the variance of the truth and the true filtering error variance at each time instance. The HBEF is shown to outperform the EnKF and the HEnKF by Myrseth and Omre (2010) in a wide range of filtering regimes in terms of performance of its primary and secondary filters.
Abawajy, Jemal; Kelarev, Andrei; Chowdhury, Morshed U; Jelinek, Herbert F
2016-01-01
Blood biochemistry attributes form an important class of tests, routinely collected several times per year for many patients with diabetes. The objective of this study is to investigate the role of blood biochemistry for improving the predictive accuracy of the diagnosis of cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) progression. Blood biochemistry contributes to CAN, and so it is a causative factor that can provide additional power for the diagnosis of CAN especially in the absence of a complete set of Ewing tests. We introduce automated iterative multitier ensembles (AIME) and investigate their performance in comparison to base classifiers and standard ensemble classifiers for blood biochemistry attributes. AIME incorporate diverse ensembles into several tiers simultaneously and combine them into one automatically generated integrated system so that one ensemble acts as an integral part of another ensemble. We carried out extensive experimental analysis using large datasets from the diabetes screening research initiative (DiScRi) project. The results of our experiments show that several blood biochemistry attributes can be used to supplement the Ewing battery for the detection of CAN in situations where one or more of the Ewing tests cannot be completed because of the individual difficulties faced by each patient in performing the tests. The results show that AIME provide higher accuracy as a multitier CAN classification paradigm. The best predictive accuracy of 99.57% has been obtained by the AIME combining decorate on top tier with bagging on middle tier based on random forest. Practitioners can use these findings to increase the accuracy of CAN diagnosis.
Entanglement in a Solid State Spin Ensemble
Simmons, Stephanie; Riemann, Helge; Abrosimov, Nikolai V; Becker, Peter; Pohl, Hans-Joachim; Thewalt, Mike L W; Itoh, Kohei M; Morton, John J L
2010-01-01
Entanglement is the quintessential quantum phenomenon and a necessary ingredient in most emerging quantum technologies, including quantum repeaters, quantum information processing (QIP) and the strongest forms of quantum cryptography. Spin ensembles, such as those in liquid state nuclear magnetic resonance, have been powerful in the development of quantum control methods, however, these demonstrations contained no entanglement and ultimately constitute classical simulations of quantum algorithms. Here we report the on-demand generation of entanglement between an ensemble of electron and nuclear spins in isotopically engineered phosphorus-doped silicon. We combined high field/low temperature electron spin resonance (3.4 T, 2.9 K) with hyperpolarisation of the 31P nuclear spin to obtain an initial state of sufficient purity to create a non-classical, inseparable state. The state was verified using density matrix tomography based on geometric phase gates, and had a fidelity of 98% compared with the ideal state a...
Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares -- First Results
Pulkkinen, A. A.; Guerra, J. A.; Uritsky, V. M.
2015-12-01
We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). Using the probabilistic forecasts from three models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC) and the NOAA forecasts, we developed an ensemble forecast by linearly combining the flaring probabilities from all four methods. Performance-based combination weights were calculated using a Monte-Carlo-type algorithm that applies a decision threshold PthP_{th} to the combined probabilities and maximizing the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). Using the data for 13 recent solar active regions between years 2012 - 2014, we found that linear combination methods can improve the overall probabilistic prediction and improve the categorical prediction for certain values of decision thresholds. Combination weights vary with the applied threshold and none of the tested individual forecasting models seem to provide more accurate predictions than the others for all values of PthP_{th}. According to the maximum values of HSS, a performance-based weights calculated by averaging over the sample, performed similarly to a equally weighted model. The values PthP_{th} for which the ensemble forecast performs the best are 25 % for M-class flares and 15 % for X-class flares. When the human-adjusted probabilities from NOAA are excluded from the ensemble, the ensemble performance in terms of the Heidke score, is reduced.
Emery, C. M.; Biancamaria, S.; Boone, A. A.; Ricci, S. M.; Garambois, P. A.; Decharme, B.; Rochoux, M. C.
2015-12-01
Land Surface Models (LSM) coupled with River Routing schemes (RRM), are used in Global Climate Models (GCM) to simulate the continental part of the water cycle. They are key component of GCM as they provide boundary conditions to atmospheric and oceanic models. However, at global scale, errors arise mainly from simplified physics, atmospheric forcing, and input parameters. More particularly, those used in RRM, such as river width, depth and friction coefficients, are difficult to calibrate and are mostly derived from geomorphologic relationships, which may not always be realistic. In situ measurements are then used to calibrate these relationships and validate the model, but global in situ data are very sparse. Additionally, due to the lack of existing global river geomorphology database and accurate forcing, models are run at coarse resolution. This is typically the case of the ISBA-TRIP model used in this study.A complementary alternative to in-situ data are satellite observations. In this regard, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission, jointly developed by NASA/CNES/CSA/UKSA and scheduled for launch around 2020, should be very valuable to calibrate RRM parameters. It will provide maps of water surface elevation for rivers wider than 100 meters over continental surfaces in between 78°S and 78°N and also direct observation of river geomorphological parameters such as width ans slope.Yet, before assimilating such kind of data, it is needed to analyze RRM temporal sensitivity to time-constant parameters. This study presents such analysis over large river basins for the TRIP RRM. Model output uncertainty, represented by unconditional variance, is decomposed into ordered contribution from each parameter. Doing a time-dependent analysis allows then to identify to which parameters modeled water level and discharge are the most sensitive along a hydrological year. The results show that local parameters directly impact water levels, while
Hybrid Intrusion Detection Using Ensemble of Classification Methods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M.Govindarajan
2014-01-01
Full Text Available One of the major developments in machine learning in the past decade is the ensemble method, which finds highly accurate classifier by combining many moderately accurate component classifiers. In this research work, new ensemble classification methods are proposed for homogeneous ensemble classifiers using bagging and heterogeneous ensemble classifiers using arcing classifier and their performances are analyzed in terms of accuracy. A Classifier ensemble is designed using Radial Basis Function (RBF and Support Vector Machine (SVM as base classifiers. The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approaches are demonstrated by the means of real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection. The main originality of the proposed approach is based on three main parts: preprocessing phase, classification phase and combining phase. A wide range of comparative experiments are conducted for real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection. The accuracy of base classifiers is compared with homogeneous and heterogeneous models for data mining problem. The proposed ensemble methods provide significant improvement of accuracy compared to individual classifiers and also heterogeneous models exhibit better results than homogeneous models for real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
于连庆; 李月安; 高嵩; 罗兵
2015-01-01
针对集合预报方法在天气预报业务中的应用，开发了具有自主知识产权的集合预报产品综合分析显示平台。以集合预报模式输出数据量大、气象图表显示效率和质量要求高两个主要需求为出发点，采用客户端服务器架构设计。服务器端将原始数据转换为产品数据以提高客户端执行效率。该文详细分析了平台关键技术，针对数据延时问题，轮询式数据处理技术实时检查原始数据变化状态并更新产品，采用生产者消费者互斥方法解决多线程锁死问题。为提高图表美观程度，动态页面布局显示技术对所有图形要素进行分类，并给出显示属性的抽象描述，结合图形渲染技术，实现了看图模式和出图模式的动态切换。该平台为预报员和服务决策者提供了宝贵的不确定性信息，在中小尺度极端天气预报、台风路径预报中发挥了重要作用。%In response to the impendent requirement of ensemble forecast applications in modern weather forecast operations,an ensemble forecast product analysis and display platform named NUMBERS (NUmerical Model Blending and Ensemble foRecast System)is developed.The application background,requirement analysis,design of system architecture and function implementation are discussed in details.In addition, some key technologies such as dynamic page layout rendering and data pooling,are also described. First of all,the ensemble forecast platform is designed using the client-server architecture.On the server side,there is a data processing program that converts large amounts of ensemble numerical model output into product data to ensure the performance of client data visualization program.On the client side, there is a data visualization program and a management console program.The data visualization program provides features including ensemble product data analysis,blending of multiple deterministic models
Competitive minimax universal decoding for several ensembles of random codes
Akirav, Yaniv
2007-01-01
Universally achievable error exponents pertaining to certain families of channels (most notably, discrete memoryless channels (DMC's)), and various ensembles of random codes, are studied by combining the competitive minimax approach, proposed by Feder and Merhav, with Chernoff bound and Gallager's techniques for the analysis of error exponents. In particular, we derive a single--letter expression for the largest, universally achievable fraction $\\xi$ of the optimum error exponent pertaining to the optimum ML decoding. Moreover, a simpler single--letter expression for a lower bound to $\\xi$ is presented. To demonstrate the tightness of this lower bound, we use it to show that $\\xi=1$, for the binary symmetric channel (BSC), when the random coding distribution is uniform over: (i) all codes (of a given rate), and (ii) all linear codes, in agreement with well--known results. We also show that $\\xi=1$ for the uniform ensemble of systematic linear codes, and for that of time--varying convolutional codes in the bit...
Data assimilation using a climatologically augmented local ensemble transform Kalman filter
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Matthew Kretschmer
2015-05-01
Full Text Available Ensemble data assimilation methods are potentially attractive because they provide a computationally affordable (and computationally parallel means of obtaining flow-dependent background-error statistics. However, a limitation of these methods is that the rank of their flow-dependent background-error covariance estimate, and hence the space of possible analysis increments, is limited by the number of forecast ensemble members. To overcome this deficiency ensemble methods typically use empirical localisation, which allows more degrees of freedom for the analysis increment by suppressing spatially distant background correlations. The method presented here improves the performance of an Ensemble Kalman filter by increasing the size of the ensemble at analysis time in order to boost the rank of its background-error covariance estimate. The additional ensemble members added to the forecast ensemble at analysis time are created by adding a collection of ‘climatological’ perturbations to the forecast ensemble mean. These perturbations are constant in time and provide state space directions, possibly missed by the dynamically forecasted background ensemble, in which the analysis increment can correct the forecast mean based on observations. As the climatological perturbations are calculated once, there is negligible computational cost in obtaining the additional ensemble members at each analysis cycle. Included here are a formulation of the method, results of numerical experiments conducted with a spatiotemporally chaotic model in one spatial dimension and discussion of possible future extensions and applications. The numerical tests indicate that the method presented here has significant potential for improving analyses and forecasts.
Exergy analysis of an integrated solar combined cycle system
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baghernejad, A.; Yaghoubi, M. [Engineering School, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran)
2010-10-15
Exergetic analysis has become an integral part of thermodynamic assessment of any power generation system. Energy and exergy studies for power plants optimum design and for combined chemical industries received much attention recently. An Integrated Solar Combined Cycle System (ISCCS) is proposed as a means of integrating a parabolic trough solar thermal plant with modern combined cycle power plants. In this study attempt will be made to analyze the Integrated Solar Combined Cycle in Yazd, Iran using design plant data. Energy and exergy analysis for the solar field and combined cycle is carried out to assess the plant performance and pinpoint sites of primary exergy destruction. Exergy destruction throughout the plant is quantified and illustrated using an exergy flow diagram, and compared to the energy flow diagram. The causes of exergy destruction in the plant include: losses in combustor, collector, heat exchangers, and pump and turbines which accounts for 29.62, 8.69, 9.11 and 8% of the total exergy input to the plant, respectively. Exergetic efficiencies of the major plant components are determined in an attempt to assess their individual performances. (author)
The Use of Artificial-Intelligence-Based Ensembles for Intrusion Detection: A Review
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gulshan Kumar
2012-01-01
Full Text Available In supervised learning-based classification, ensembles have been successfully employed to different application domains. In the literature, many researchers have proposed different ensembles by considering different combination methods, training datasets, base classifiers, and many other factors. Artificial-intelligence-(AI- based techniques play prominent role in development of ensemble for intrusion detection (ID and have many benefits over other techniques. However, there is no comprehensive review of ensembles in general and AI-based ensembles for ID to examine and understand their current research status to solve the ID problem. Here, an updated review of ensembles and their taxonomies has been presented in general. The paper also presents the updated review of various AI-based ensembles for ID (in particular during last decade. The related studies of AI-based ensembles are compared by set of evaluation metrics driven from (1 architecture & approach followed; (2 different methods utilized in different phases of ensemble learning; (3 other measures used to evaluate classification performance of the ensembles. The paper also provides the future directions of the research in this area. The paper will help the better understanding of different directions in which research of ensembles has been done in general and specifically: field of intrusion detection systems (IDSs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. Thirel
2010-08-01
Full Text Available The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Ensemble streamflow forecast systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS. Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm
Ensemble control of linear systems with parameter uncertainties
Kou, Kit Ian; Liu, Yang; Zhang, Dandan; Tu, Yanshuai
2016-07-01
In this paper, we study the optimal control problem for a class of four-dimensional linear systems based on quaternionic and Fourier analysis. When the control is unconstrained, the optimal ensemble controller for this linear ensemble control systems is given in terms of prolate spheroidal wave functions. For the constrained convex optimisation problem of such systems, the quadratic programming is presented to obtain the optimal control laws. Simulations are given to verity the effectiveness of the proposed theory.
Diurnal Ensemble Surface Meteorology Statistics
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Excel file containing diurnal ensemble statistics of 2-m temperature, 2-m mixing ratio and 10-m wind speed. This Excel file contains figures for Figure 2 in the...
A new ensemble feature selection and its application to pattern classification
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Dongbo ZHANG; Yaonan WANG
2009-01-01
Neural network ensemble based on rough sets reduct is proposed to decrease the computational complexity of conventional ensemble feature selection algorithm. First, a dynamic reduction technology combining genetic algorithm with resampling method is adopted to obtain reducts with good generalization ability. Second, Multiple BP neural networks based on different reducts are built as base classifiers. According to the idea of selective ensemble, the neural network ensemble with best generalization ability can be found by search strategies. Finally, classification based on neural network ensemble is implemented by combining the predictions of component networks with voting. The method has been verified in the experiment of remote sensing image and five UCI datasets classification. Compared with conventional ensemble feature selection algorithms, it costs less time and lower computing complexity, and the classification accuracy is satisfactory.
Similarity measures for protein ensembles
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper
2009-01-01
Analyses of similarities and changes in protein conformation can provide important information regarding protein function and evolution. Many scores, including the commonly used root mean square deviation, have therefore been developed to quantify the similarities of different protein conformations...... a synthetic example from molecular dynamics simulations. We then apply the algorithms to revisit the problem of ensemble averaging during structure determination of proteins, and find that an ensemble refinement method is able to recover the correct distribution of conformations better than standard single...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
2004-01-01
Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output is a...... is available via two password-protected web-pages hosted at IMM and is used daily by Elsam and E2....
Ali, Safdar; Majid, Abdul; Khan, Asifullah
2014-04-01
Development of an accurate and reliable intelligent decision-making method for the construction of cancer diagnosis system is one of the fast growing research areas of health sciences. Such decision-making system can provide adequate information for cancer diagnosis and drug discovery. Descriptors derived from physicochemical properties of protein sequences are very useful for classifying cancerous proteins. Recently, several interesting research studies have been reported on breast cancer classification. To this end, we propose the exploitation of the physicochemical properties of amino acids in protein primary sequences such as hydrophobicity (Hd) and hydrophilicity (Hb) for breast cancer classification. Hd and Hb properties of amino acids, in recent literature, are reported to be quite effective in characterizing the constituent amino acids and are used to study protein foldings, interactions, structures, and sequence-order effects. Especially, using these physicochemical properties, we observed that proline, serine, tyrosine, cysteine, arginine, and asparagine amino acids offer high discrimination between cancerous and healthy proteins. In addition, unlike traditional ensemble classification approaches, the proposed 'IDM-PhyChm-Ens' method was developed by combining the decision spaces of a specific classifier trained on different feature spaces. The different feature spaces used were amino acid composition, split amino acid composition, and pseudo amino acid composition. Consequently, we have exploited different feature spaces using Hd and Hb properties of amino acids to develop an accurate method for classification of cancerous protein sequences. We developed ensemble classifiers using diverse learning algorithms such as random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) trained on different feature spaces. We observed that ensemble-RF, in case of cancer classification, performed better than ensemble-SVM and ensemble-KNN. Our
Meta analysis a guide to calibrating and combining statistical evidence
Kulinskaya, Elena; Staudte, Robert G
2008-01-01
Meta Analysis: A Guide to Calibrating and Combining Statistical Evidence acts as a source of basic methods for scientists wanting to combine evidence from different experiments. The authors aim to promote a deeper understanding of the notion of statistical evidence.The book is comprised of two parts - The Handbook, and The Theory. The Handbook is a guide for combining and interpreting experimental evidence to solve standard statistical problems. This section allows someone with a rudimentary knowledge in general statistics to apply the methods. The Theory provides the motivation, theory and results of simulation experiments to justify the methodology.This is a coherent introduction to the statistical concepts required to understand the authors' thesis that evidence in a test statistic can often be calibrated when transformed to the right scale.
Image Combination Analysis in SPECAN Algorithm of Spaceborne SAR
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
臧铁飞; 李方慧; 龙腾
2003-01-01
An analysis of image combination in SPECAN algorithm is delivered in time-frequency domain in detail and a new image combination method is proposed. For four multi-looks processing one sub-aperture data in every three sub-apertures is processed in this combination method. The continual sub-aperture processing in SPECAN algorithm is realized and the processing efficiency can be dramatically increased. A new parameter is also put forward to measure the processing efficient of SAR image processing. Finally, the raw data of RADARSAT are used to test the method and the result proves that this method is feasible to be used in SPECAN algorithm of spaceborne SAR and can improve processing efficiently. SPECAN algorithm with this method can be used in quick-look imaging.
Vincente, Vanessa
The variation of topography in Colorado not only adds to the beauty of its landscape, but also tests our ability to predict warm season severe convection. Deficient radar coverage and limited observations make quantitative precipitation forecasting quite a challenge. Past studies have suggested that greater forecast skill of mesoscale convection initiation and precipitation characteristics are achievable considering an ensemble with explicitly predicted convection compared to one that has parameterized convection. The range of uncertainty and probabilities in these forecasts can help forecasters in their precipitation predictions and communication of weather information to emergency managers (EMs). EMs serve an integral role in informing and protecting communities in anticipation of hazardous weather. An example of such an event occurred on the evening of 6 June 2012, where areas to the lee of the Rocky Mountain Front Range were impacted by flash-flood-producing severe convection that included heavy rain and copious amounts of hail. Despite the discrepancy in the timing, location and evolution of convection, the convection-allowing ensemble forecasts generally outperformed those of the convection-parameterized ensemble in representing the mesoscale processes responsible for the 6-7 June severe convective event. Key features sufficiently reproduced by several of the convection-allowing ensemble members resembled the observations: 1) general location of a convergence boundary east of Denver, 2) convective initiation along the boundary, 3) general location of a weak cold front near the Wyoming/Nebraska border, and 4) cold pools and moist upslope characteristics that contributed to the backbuilding of convection. Members from the convection-parameterized ensemble that failed to reproduce these results displaced the convergence boundary, produced a cold front that moved southeast too quickly, and used the cold front for convective initiation. The convection
Exergy analysis for combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhang, Zelong; Chen, Lingen; Sun, Fengrui [College of Naval Architecture and Power, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China)
2012-07-01
This paper presents the study of exergy analysis of combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles. The analytical formulae of exergy loss and exergy efficiency are derived. The largest exergy loss location is determined. By taking the maximum exergy efficiency as the objective, the choice of bottom cycle pressure ratio is optimized by detailed numerical examples, and the corresponding optimal exergy efficiency is obtained. The influences of various parameters on the exergy efficiency and other performances are analyzed by numerical calculations.
Attenuation Analysis and Acoustic Pressure Levels for Combined Absorptive Mufflers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ovidiu Vasile
2011-09-01
Full Text Available The paper describes the pressure-wave propagation in a muffler for an internal combustion engine in case of two combined mufflers geometry. The approach is generally applicable to analyzing the damping of propagation of harmonic pressure waves. The paper purpose is to show finite elements analysis of both inductive and resistive damping in pressure acoustics. The main output is the attenuation and acoustic pressure levels for the frequency range 50 Hz–3000 Hz.
Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.
Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T
2015-08-25
The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.
Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence
Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J.; Tong, Xin T.
2015-01-01
The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature. PMID:26261335
Combined cardiotocographic and ST event analysis: A review.
Amer-Wahlin, Isis; Kwee, Anneke
2016-01-01
ST-analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram (ECG) (STAN(®)) combined with cardiotocography (CTG) for intrapartum fetal monitoring has been developed following many years of animal research. Changes in the ST-segment of the fetal ECG correlated with fetal hypoxia occurring during labor. In 1993 the first randomized controlled trial (RCT), comparing CTG with CTG + ST-analysis was published. STAN(®) was introduced for daily practice in 2000. To date, six RCTs have been performed, out of which five have been published. Furthermore, there are six published meta-analyses. The meta-analyses showed that CTG + ST-analysis reduced the risks of vaginal operative delivery by about 10% and fetal blood sampling by 40%. There are conflicting results regarding the effect on metabolic acidosis, much because of controveries about which RCTs should be included in a meta-analysis, and because of differences in methodology, execution and quality of the meta-analyses. Several cohort studies have been published, some showing significant decrease of metabolic acidosis after the introduction of ST-analysis. In this review, we discuss not only the scientific evidence from the RCTs and meta-analyses, but also the limitations of these studies. In conclusion, ST-analysis is effective in reducing operative vaginal deliveries and fetal blood sampling but the effect on neonatal metabolic acidosis is still under debate. Further research is needed to determine the place of ST-analysis in the labor ward for daily practice.
Ensemble transform sensitivity method for adaptive observations
Zhang, Yu; Xie, Yuanfu; Wang, Hongli; Chen, Dehui; Toth, Zoltan
2016-01-01
The Ensemble Transform (ET) method has been shown to be useful in providing guidance for adaptive observation deployment. It predicts forecast error variance reduction for each possible deployment using its corresponding transformation matrix in an ensemble subspace. In this paper, a new ET-based sensitivity (ETS) method, which calculates the gradient of forecast error variance reduction in terms of analysis error variance reduction, is proposed to specify regions for possible adaptive observations. ETS is a first order approximation of the ET; it requires just one calculation of a transformation matrix, increasing computational efficiency (60%-80% reduction in computational cost). An explicit mathematical formulation of the ETS gradient is derived and described. Both the ET and ETS methods are applied to the Hurricane Irene (2011) case and a heavy rainfall case for comparison. The numerical results imply that the sensitive areas estimated by the ETS and ET are similar. However, ETS is much more efficient, particularly when the resolution is higher and the number of ensemble members is larger.
Dynamic Analogue Initialization for Ensemble Forecasting
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI Shan; RONG Xingyao; LIU Yun; LIU Zhengyu; Klaus FRAEDRICH
2013-01-01
This paper introduces a new approach for the initialization of ensemble numerical forecasting:Dynamic Analogue Initialization (DAI).DAI assumes that the best model state trajectories for the past provide the initial conditions for the best forecasts in the future.As such,DAI performs the ensemble forecast using the best analogues from a full size ensemble.As a pilot study,the Lorenz63 and Lorenz96 models were used to test DAI's effectiveness independently.Results showed that DAI can improve the forecast significantly.Especially in lower-dimensional systems,DAI can reduce the forecast RMSE by ～50％ compared to the Monte Carlo forecast (MC).This improvement is because DAI is able to recognize the direction of the analysis error through the embedding process and therefore selects those good trajectories with reduced initial error.Meanwhile,a potential improvement of DAI is also proposed,and that is to find the optimal range of embedding time based on the error's growing speed.
2009-03-01
2008 Carnegie Mellon University An Innovative Requirements Solution: Combining Six Sigma KJ Language Data Analysis with Automated Content...2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2009 to 00-00-2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE An Innovative Requirements Solution: Combining Six Sigma KJ...Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 3 An Innovative Requirements Solution: Marrying Six Sigma KJ Analysis with Automation for Text Analysis and
Quantifying Monte Carlo uncertainty in ensemble Kalman filter
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thulin, Kristian; Naevdal, Geir; Skaug, Hans Julius; Aanonsen, Sigurd Ivar
2009-01-15
This report is presenting results obtained during Kristian Thulin PhD study, and is a slightly modified form of a paper submitted to SPE Journal. Kristian Thulin did most of his portion of the work while being a PhD student at CIPR, University of Bergen. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is currently considered one of the most promising methods for conditioning reservoir simulation models to production data. The EnKF is a sequential Monte Carlo method based on a low rank approximation of the system covariance matrix. The posterior probability distribution of model variables may be estimated fram the updated ensemble, but because of the low rank covariance approximation, the updated ensemble members become correlated samples from the posterior distribution. We suggest using multiple EnKF runs, each with smaller ensemble size to obtain truly independent samples from the posterior distribution. This allows a point-wise confidence interval for the posterior cumulative distribution function (CDF) to be constructed. We present a methodology for finding an optimal combination of ensemble batch size (n) and number of EnKF runs (m) while keeping the total number of ensemble members ( m x n) constant. The optimal combination of n and m is found through minimizing the integrated mean square error (MSE) for the CDFs and we choose to define an EnKF run with 10.000 ensemble members as having zero Monte Carlo error. The methodology is tested on a simplistic, synthetic 2D model, but should be applicable also to larger, more realistic models. (author). 12 refs., figs.,tabs
Estimating preselected and postselected ensembles
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Massar, Serge [Laboratoire d' Information Quantique, C.P. 225, Universite libre de Bruxelles (U.L.B.), Av. F. D. Rooselvelt 50, B-1050 Bruxelles (Belgium); Popescu, Sandu [H. H. Wills Physics Laboratory, University of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TL (United Kingdom); Hewlett-Packard Laboratories, Stoke Gifford, Bristol BS12 6QZ (United Kingdom)
2011-11-15
In analogy with the usual quantum state-estimation problem, we introduce the problem of state estimation for a pre- and postselected ensemble. The problem has fundamental physical significance since, as argued by Y. Aharonov and collaborators, pre- and postselected ensembles are the most basic quantum ensembles. Two new features are shown to appear: (1) information is flowing to the measuring device both from the past and from the future; (2) because of the postselection, certain measurement outcomes can be forced never to occur. Due to these features, state estimation in such ensembles is dramatically different from the case of ordinary, preselected-only ensembles. We develop a general theoretical framework for studying this problem and illustrate it through several examples. We also prove general theorems establishing that information flowing from the future is closely related to, and in some cases equivalent to, the complex conjugate information flowing from the past. Finally, we illustrate our approach on examples involving covariant measurements on spin-1/2 particles. We emphasize that all state-estimation problems can be extended to the pre- and postselected situation. The present work thus lays the foundations of a much more general theory of quantum state estimation.
Algorithms on ensemble quantum computers.
Boykin, P Oscar; Mor, Tal; Roychowdhury, Vwani; Vatan, Farrokh
2010-06-01
In ensemble (or bulk) quantum computation, all computations are performed on an ensemble of computers rather than on a single computer. Measurements of qubits in an individual computer cannot be performed; instead, only expectation values (over the complete ensemble of computers) can be measured. As a result of this limitation on the model of computation, many algorithms cannot be processed directly on such computers, and must be modified, as the common strategy of delaying the measurements usually does not resolve this ensemble-measurement problem. Here we present several new strategies for resolving this problem. Based on these strategies we provide new versions of some of the most important quantum algorithms, versions that are suitable for implementing on ensemble quantum computers, e.g., on liquid NMR quantum computers. These algorithms are Shor's factorization algorithm, Grover's search algorithm (with several marked items), and an algorithm for quantum fault-tolerant computation. The first two algorithms are simply modified using a randomizing and a sorting strategies. For the last algorithm, we develop a classical-quantum hybrid strategy for removing measurements. We use it to present a novel quantum fault-tolerant scheme. More explicitly, we present schemes for fault-tolerant measurement-free implementation of Toffoli and σ(z)(¼) as these operations cannot be implemented "bitwise", and their standard fault-tolerant implementations require measurement.
CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer
Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.
2014-12-01
SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.
Hopson, T. M.
2014-12-01
One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. Thirel
2010-04-01
Full Text Available The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Such systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS. Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm Rate, etc., especially
A Combined Metabolomic and Proteomic Analysis of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.
Hajduk, Joanna; Klupczynska, Agnieszka; Dereziński, Paweł; Matysiak, Jan; Kokot, Piotr; Nowak, Dorota M; Gajęcka, Marzena; Nowak-Markwitz, Ewa; Kokot, Zenon J
2015-12-16
The aim of this pilot study was to apply a novel combined metabolomic and proteomic approach in analysis of gestational diabetes mellitus. The investigation was performed with plasma samples derived from pregnant women with diagnosed gestational diabetes mellitus (n = 18) and a matched control group (n = 13). The mass spectrometry-based analyses allowed to determine 42 free amino acids and low molecular-weight peptide profiles. Different expressions of several peptides and altered amino acid profiles were observed in the analyzed groups. The combination of proteomic and metabolomic data allowed obtaining the model with a high discriminatory power, where amino acids ethanolamine, L-citrulline, L-asparagine, and peptide ions with m/z 1488.59; 4111.89 and 2913.15 had the highest contribution to the model. The sensitivity (94.44%) and specificity (84.62%), as well as the total group membership classification value (90.32%) calculated from the post hoc classification matrix of a joint model were the highest when compared with a single analysis of either amino acid levels or peptide ion intensities. The obtained results indicated a high potential of integration of proteomic and metabolomics analysis regardless the sample size. This promising approach together with clinical evaluation of the subjects can also be used in the study of other diseases.
A Combined Metabolomic and Proteomic Analysis of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joanna Hajduk
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The aim of this pilot study was to apply a novel combined metabolomic and proteomic approach in analysis of gestational diabetes mellitus. The investigation was performed with plasma samples derived from pregnant women with diagnosed gestational diabetes mellitus (n = 18 and a matched control group (n = 13. The mass spectrometry-based analyses allowed to determine 42 free amino acids and low molecular-weight peptide profiles. Different expressions of several peptides and altered amino acid profiles were observed in the analyzed groups. The combination of proteomic and metabolomic data allowed obtaining the model with a high discriminatory power, where amino acids ethanolamine, l-citrulline, l-asparagine, and peptide ions with m/z 1488.59; 4111.89 and 2913.15 had the highest contribution to the model. The sensitivity (94.44% and specificity (84.62%, as well as the total group membership classification value (90.32% calculated from the post hoc classification matrix of a joint model were the highest when compared with a single analysis of either amino acid levels or peptide ion intensities. The obtained results indicated a high potential of integration of proteomic and metabolomics analysis regardless the sample size. This promising approach together with clinical evaluation of the subjects can also be used in the study of other diseases.
Linking neuronal ensembles by associative synaptic plasticity.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qi Yuan
Full Text Available Synchronized activity in ensembles of neurons recruited by excitatory afferents is thought to contribute to the coding information in the brain. However, the mechanisms by which neuronal ensembles are generated and modified are not known. Here we show that in rat hippocampal slices associative synaptic plasticity enables ensembles of neurons to change by incorporating neurons belonging to different ensembles. Associative synaptic plasticity redistributes the composition of different ensembles recruited by distinct inputs such as to specifically increase the similarity between the ensembles. These results show that in the hippocampus, the ensemble of neurons recruited by a given afferent projection is fluid and can be rapidly and persistently modified to specifically include neurons from different ensembles. This linking of ensembles may contribute to the formation of associative memories.
Technical and financial analysis of combined cycle gas turbine
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Khan Arshad Muhammad
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents technical and financial models which were developed in this study to predict the overall performance of combined cycle gas turbine plant in line with the needs of independent power producers in the liberalized market of power sector. Three similar sizes of combined cycle gas turbine power projects up to 200 Megawatt of independent power producers in Pakistan were selected in-order to develop and drive the basic assumptions for the inputs of the models in view of prevailing Government of Pakistan’s two components of electricity purchasing tariff that is energy purchase price and capacity purchase price at higher voltage grid station terminal from independent power producers. The levelized electricity purchasing tariff over life of plant on gaseous fuel at 60 percent plant load factor was 6.47 cent per kilowatt hour with energy purchase price and capacity purchase prices of 3.54 and 2.93 cents per kilowatt hour respectively. The outcome of technical models of gas turbine, steam turbine and combined cycle gas turbine power were found in close agreement with the projects under consideration and provides opportunity of evaluation of technical and financial aspects of combined cycle power plant in a more simplified manner with relatively accurate results. At 105 Celsius exit temperature of heat recovery steam generator flue gases the net efficiency of combined cycle gas turbine was 48.8 percent whereas at 125 Celsius exit temperature of heat recovery steam generator flue gases it was 48.0 percent. Sensitivity analysis of selected influential components of electricity tariff was also carried out.
Excitation energies from ensemble DFT
Borgoo, Alex; Teale, Andy M.; Helgaker, Trygve
2015-12-01
We study the evaluation of the Gross-Oliveira-Kohn expression for excitation energies E1-E0=ɛ1-ɛ0+∂E/xc,w[ρ] ∂w | ρ =ρ0. This expression gives the difference between an excitation energy E1 - E0 and the corresponding Kohn-Sham orbital energy difference ɛ1 - ɛ0 as a partial derivative of the exchange-correlation energy of an ensemble of states Exc,w[ρ]. Through Lieb maximisation, on input full-CI density functions, the exchange-correlation energy is evaluated accurately and the partial derivative is evaluated numerically using finite difference. The equality is studied numerically for different geometries of the H2 molecule and different ensemble weights. We explore the adiabatic connection for the ensemble exchange-correlation energy. The latter may prove useful when modelling the unknown weight dependence of the exchange-correlation energy.
An automated approach to network features of protein structure ensembles.
Bhattacharyya, Moitrayee; Bhat, Chanda R; Vishveshwara, Saraswathi
2013-10-01
Network theory applied to protein structures provides insights into numerous problems of biological relevance. The explosion in structural data available from PDB and simulations establishes a need to introduce a standalone-efficient program that assembles network concepts/parameters under one hood in an automated manner. Herein, we discuss the development/application of an exhaustive, user-friendly, standalone program package named PSN-Ensemble, which can handle structural ensembles generated through molecular dynamics (MD) simulation/NMR studies or from multiple X-ray structures. The novelty in network construction lies in the explicit consideration of side-chain interactions among amino acids. The program evaluates network parameters dealing with topological organization and long-range allosteric communication. The introduction of a flexible weighing scheme in terms of residue pairwise cross-correlation/interaction energy in PSN-Ensemble brings in dynamical/chemical knowledge into the network representation. Also, the results are mapped on a graphical display of the structure, allowing an easy access of network analysis to a general biological community. The potential of PSN-Ensemble toward examining structural ensemble is exemplified using MD trajectories of an ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (UbcH5b). Furthermore, insights derived from network parameters evaluated using PSN-Ensemble for single-static structures of active/inactive states of β2-adrenergic receptor and the ternary tRNA complexes of tyrosyl tRNA synthetases (from organisms across kingdoms) are discussed. PSN-Ensemble is freely available from http://vishgraph.mbu.iisc.ernet.in/PSN-Ensemble/psn_index.html.
Zhang, Guo; Chen, Fei; Gan, Yanjun
2016-08-01
Despite the widespread use of the latest community Noah with multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model, it has not been rigorously evaluated over the complex Tibetan Plateau. This study assessed uncertainties in Noah-MP simulations of a cropland site using observations from the 2008 Joint International Cooperation program field campaign. Such an assessment was conducted in the context of performing a total number of 4608 Noah-MP physics ensemble simulations using two analysis methods: the natural selection approach and Tukey's test, where the impacts of uncertainties in atmospheric forcing conditions, vegetation parameters, and subprocesses on model simulations were identified. Uncertainty in precipitation data exerts greater influence on the general behavior of Noah-MP ensemble simulations than that in the leaf area index (LAI). However, using a more realistic seasonal LAI improves the seasonal variations of surface heat fluxes. Combining a better precipitation forcing data set and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer monthly LAI significantly reduces the uncertainty range of the ensemble mean of surface heat fluxes. The uncertainty analysis results using the natural selection method are largely similar to that from Tukey's test but show some subtle differences. Both methods reveal greater uncertainties in the following subprocess schemes: canopy resistance, soil moisture threshold for evaporation, runoff and groundwater, and surface-layer parameterization for this cropland site. The uncertainty analysis identifies the parameterization schemes that demonstrably degrade model performance. The uncertainties in ensemble simulations were significantly reduced when those schemes were excluded, and it was possible to configure an optimal combination of parameterization schemes to obtain similar performance to the ensemble mean of the "best" ensemble experiment.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Micenková, Barbora; McWilliams, Brian; Assent, Ira
into the existing unsupervised algorithms. In this paper, we show how to use powerful machine learning approaches to combine labeled examples together with arbitrary unsupervised outlier scoring algorithms. We aim to get the best out of the two worlds—supervised and unsupervised. Our approach is also a viable...
phenix.ensemble_refinement: a test study of apo and holo BACE1
Burnley, B.T.; Gros, P.
2013-01-01
phenix.ensemble_refinement (Burnley et al. 2012) combines molecular dynamic (MD) simulations with X-‐ray structure refinement to generate ensemble models fitted to diffraction data. It is an evolution of the ‘time-‐averaging’ method first proposed by Gros et al. in 1990 (Gros, van Gunsteren, and H
Exergy analysis for combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zelong Zhang, Lingen Chen, Fengrui Sun
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the study of exergy analysis of combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles. The analytical formulae of exergy loss and exergy efficiency are derived. The largest exergy loss location is determined. By taking the maximum exergy efficiency as the objective, the choice of bottom cycle pressure ratio is optimized by detailed numerical examples, and the corresponding optimal exergy efficiency is obtained. The influences of various parameters on the exergy efficiency and other performances are analyzed by numerical calculations.
The Split-Apply-Combine Strategy for Data Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hadley Wickham
2011-04-01
Full Text Available Many data analysis problems involve the application of a split-apply-combine strategy, where you break up a big problem into manageable pieces, operate on each piece independently and then put all the pieces back together. This insight gives rise to a new R package that allows you to smoothly apply this strategy, without having to worry about the type of structure in which your data is stored.The paper includes two case studies showing how these insights make it easier to work with batting records for veteran baseball players and a large 3d array of spatio-temporal ozone measurements.
The Partition Ensemble Fallacy Fallacy
Nemoto, K; Nemoto, Kae; Braunstein, Samuel L.
2002-01-01
The Partition Ensemble Fallacy was recently applied to claim no quantum coherence exists in coherent states produced by lasers. We show that this claim relies on an untestable belief of a particular prior distribution of absolute phase. One's choice for the prior distribution for an unobservable quantity is a matter of `religion'. We call this principle the Partition Ensemble Fallacy Fallacy. Further, we show an alternative approach to construct a relative-quantity Hilbert subspace where unobservability of certain quantities is guaranteed by global conservation laws. This approach is applied to coherent states and constructs an approximate relative-phase Hilbert subspace.
Towards Advanced Data Analysis by Combining Soft Computing and Statistics
Gil, María; Sousa, João; Verleysen, Michel
2013-01-01
Soft computing, as an engineering science, and statistics, as a classical branch of mathematics, emphasize different aspects of data analysis. Soft computing focuses on obtaining working solutions quickly, accepting approximations and unconventional approaches. Its strength lies in its flexibility to create models that suit the needs arising in applications. In addition, it emphasizes the need for intuitive and interpretable models, which are tolerant to imprecision and uncertainty. Statistics is more rigorous and focuses on establishing objective conclusions based on experimental data by analyzing the possible situations and their (relative) likelihood. It emphasizes the need for mathematical methods and tools to assess solutions and guarantee performance. Combining the two fields enhances the robustness and generalizability of data analysis methods, while preserving the flexibility to solve real-world problems efficiently and intuitively.
Walcott, Sam
2013-03-01
Interactions between the proteins actin and myosin drive muscle contraction. Properties of a single myosin interacting with an actin filament are largely known, but a trillion myosins work together in muscle. We are interested in how single-molecule properties relate to ensemble function. Myosin's reaction rates depend on force, so ensemble models keep track of both molecular state and force on each molecule. These models make subtle predictions, e.g. that myosin, when part of an ensemble, moves actin faster than when isolated. This acceleration arises because forces between molecules speed reaction kinetics. Experiments support this prediction and allow parameter estimates. A model based on this analysis describes experiments from single molecule to ensemble. In vivo, actin is regulated by proteins that, when present, cause the binding of one myosin to speed the binding of its neighbors; binding becomes cooperative. Although such interactions preclude the mean field approximation, a set of linear ODEs describes these ensembles under simplified experimental conditions. In these experiments cooperativity is strong, with the binding of one molecule affecting ten neighbors on either side. We progress toward a description of myosin ensembles under physiological conditions.
XQCAT eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool
Barducci, D; Buchkremer, M; Marrouche, J; Moretti, S; Panizzi, L
2015-01-01
XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool) is a tool aimed to determine exclusion Confidence Levels (eCLs) for scenarios of new physics characterised by the presence of one or multiple heavy extra quarks (XQ) which interact through Yukawa couplings with any of the Standard Model (SM) quarks. The code uses a database of efficiencies for pre-simulated processes of Quantum Chromo-Dynamics (QCD) pair production and on-shell decays of extra quarks. In the version 1.0 of XQCAT the efficiencies have been computed for a set of seven publicly available search results by the CMS experiment, and the package is subject to future updates to include further searches by both ATLAS and CMS collaborations. The input for the code is a text file in which masses, branching ratios (BRs) and dominant chirality of the couplings of the new quarks are provided. The output of the code is the eCL of the test point for each implemented experimental analysis considered individually and, when possible, in statistical combination.
Thermoeconomic Analysis of Advanced Solar-Fossil Combined Power Plants
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yassine Allani
2000-12-01
Full Text Available
Hybrid solar thermal power plants (with parabolic trough type of solar collectors featuring gas burners and Rankine steam cycles have been successfully demonstrated by California's Solar Electric Generating System (SEGS. This system has been proven to be one of the most efficient and economical schemes to convert solar energy into electricity. Recent technological progress opens interesting prospects for advanced cycle concepts: a the ISCCS (Integrated Solar Combined Cycle System that integrates the parabolic trough into a fossil fired combined cycle, which allows a larger exergy potential of the fuel to be converted. b the HSTS (Hybrid Solar Tower System which uses high concentration optics (via a power tower generator and high temperature air receivers to drive the combined cycle power plant. In the latter case, solar energy is used at a higher exergy level as a heat source of the topping cycle. This paper presents the results of a thermoeconomic investigation of an ISCCS envisaged in Tunisia. The study is realized in two phases. In the first phase, a mixed approach, based on pinch technology principles coupled with a mathematical optimization algorithm, is used to minimize the heat transfer exergy losses in the steam generators, respecting the off design operating conditions of the steam turbine (cone law. In the second phase, an economic analysis based on the Levelized Electricity Cost (LEC approach was carried out for the configurations, which provided the best concepts during the first phase. A comparison of ISCCS with pure fossil fueled plants (CC+GT is reported for the same electrical power load. A sensitivity analysis based on the relative size of the solar field is presented.
Numerical Analysis of Combined Valve Hydrodynamic Characteristics for Turbine System
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bhowmik, P. K.; Shamim, J. A.; Gairola, A.; Arif, M.; Suh, Kune Y. [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2014-05-15
precisely by the valve manufacturer. As a matter of fact, attempts were made to obtain flow characteristic curves resorting to analytical as well as numerical methods. The flow characteristic curve relates the stem lift with mass flow rate at a specific temperature and pressure. This paper focuses on computational and numerical analysis of the combined stop and control valve. Combined Airflow Regulation Analysis (CARA) is performed to check on the hydrodynamic characteristic, which is represented by flow coefficient characteristic. CATIA V.5 and ANSYS CFX are used for three-dimensional computer-aided design and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis, respectively. Flow characteristic curves are plotted by calculating theoretical and numerical mass flow rate. Hydrodynamic analysis was made of the combined stop and control valve for the turbine system using ANSYS CFX. The result of the numerical study represented by the valve flow coefficient with different normalized values of valve stem movement L/D and different pressure ratios of valve outlet and inlet agrees well with the ideal case and other similar previous experimental results. This study also provided a solid understanding with versatile options for analyzing the hydrodynamics of the combined valve considering the various internal geometry, seat, plug, and the inlet plus outlet boundary conditions to improve the efficiency, performance and reliability of the turbine system of small as well as large power conversion system using the numerical analysis with minimal cost and time.
Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling
Wallach, Daniel; Mearns, Linda O.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold
2016-01-01
Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.
Probabilistic Determination of Native State Ensembles of Proteins
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olsson, Simon; Vögeli, Beat Rolf; Cavalli, Andrea
2014-01-01
The motions of biological macromolecules are tightly coupled to their functions. However, while the study of fast motions has become increasingly feasible in recent years, the study of slower, biologically important motions remains difficult. Here, we present a method to construct native state...... ensembles of proteins by the combination of physical force fields and experimental data through modern statistical methodology. As an example, we use NMR residual dipolar couplings to determine a native state ensemble of the extensively studied third immunoglobulin binding domain of protein G (GB3...
Ensemble classi cation methods for autism disordered speech
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zoubir Abdeslem Benselama
2016-09-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we present the results of our investigation on Autism classifi cation by applying ensemble classi ers to disordered speech signals. The aim is to distinguish between Autism sub-classes by comparing an ensemble combining three decision methods, the sequential minimization optimization (SMO algorithm, the random forests (RF, and the feature-subspace aggregating approach (Feating. The conducted experiments allowed a reduction of 30% of the feature space with an accuracy increase over the baseline of 8.66% in the development set and 6.62% in the test set.
Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold;
2015-01-01
Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but ...
Detection of chewing from piezoelectric film sensor signals using ensemble classifiers.
Farooq, Muhammad; Sazonov, Edward
2016-08-01
Selection and use of pattern recognition algorithms is application dependent. In this work, we explored the use of several ensembles of weak classifiers to classify signals captured from a wearable sensor system to detect food intake based on chewing. Three sensor signals (Piezoelectric sensor, accelerometer, and hand to mouth gesture) were collected from 12 subjects in free-living conditions for 24 hrs. Sensor signals were divided into 10 seconds epochs and for each epoch combination of time and frequency domain features were computed. In this work, we present a comparison of three different ensemble techniques: boosting (AdaBoost), bootstrap aggregation (bagging) and stacking, each trained with 3 different weak classifiers (Decision Trees, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Logistic Regression). Type of feature normalization used can also impact the classification results. For each ensemble method, three feature normalization techniques: (no-normalization, z-score normalization, and minmax normalization) were tested. A 12 fold cross-validation scheme was used to evaluate the performance of each model where the performance was evaluated in terms of precision, recall, and accuracy. Best results achieved here show an improvement of about 4% over our previous algorithms.
Shen, Zheqi; Tang, Youmin
2016-04-01
The ensemble Kalman particle filter (EnKPF) is a combination of two Bayesian-based algorithms, namely, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the sequential importance resampling particle filter(SIR-PF). It was recently introduced to address non-Gaussian features in data assimilation for highly nonlinear systems, by providing a continuous interpolation between the EnKF and SIR-PF analysis schemes. In this paper, we first extend the EnKPF algorithm by modifying the formula for the computation of the covariancematrix, making it suitable for nonlinear measurement functions (we will call this extended algorithm nEnKPF). Further, a general form of the Kalman gain is introduced to the EnKPF to improve the performance of the nEnKPF when the measurement function is highly nonlinear (this improved algorithm is called mEnKPF). The Lorenz '63 model and Lorenz '96 model are used to test the two modified EnKPF algorithms. The experiments show that the mEnKPF and nEnKPF, given an affordable ensemble size, can perform better than the EnKF for the nonlinear systems with nonlinear observations. These results suggest a promising opportunity to develop a non-Gaussian scheme for realistic numerical models.
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...
Hybrid ensemble 4DVar assimilation of stratospheric ozone using a global shallow water model
Allen, Douglas R.; Hoppel, Karl W.; Kuhl, David D.
2016-07-01
Wind extraction from stratospheric ozone (O3) assimilation is examined using a hybrid ensemble 4-D variational assimilation (4DVar) shallow water model (SWM) system coupled to the tracer advection equation. Stratospheric radiance observations are simulated using global observations of the SWM fluid height (Z), while O3 observations represent sampling by a typical polar-orbiting satellite. Four ensemble sizes were examined (25, 50, 100, and 1518 members), with the largest ensemble equal to the number of dynamical state variables. The optimal length scale for ensemble localization was found by tuning an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). This scale was then used for localizing the ensemble covariances that were blended with conventional covariances in the hybrid 4DVar experiments. Both optimal length scale and optimal blending coefficient increase with ensemble size, with optimal blending coefficients varying from 0.2-0.5 for small ensembles to 0.5-1.0 for large ensembles. The hybrid system outperforms conventional 4DVar for all ensemble sizes, while for large ensembles the hybrid produces similar results to the offline EnKF. Assimilating O3 in addition to Z benefits the winds in the hybrid system, with the fractional improvement in global vector wind increasing from ˜ 35 % with 25 and 50 members to ˜ 50 % with 1518 members. For the smallest ensembles (25 and 50 members), the hybrid 4DVar assimilation improves the zonal wind analysis over conventional 4DVar in the Northern Hemisphere (winter-like) region and also at the Equator, where Z observations alone have difficulty constraining winds due to lack of geostrophy. For larger ensembles (100 and 1518 members), the hybrid system results in both zonal and meridional wind error reductions, relative to 4DVar, across the globe.
Constructing Support Vector Machine Ensembles for Cancer Classification Based on Proteomic Profiling
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Yong Mao; Xiao-Bo Zhou; Dao-Ying Pi; You-Xian Sun
2005-01-01
In this study, we present a constructive algorithm for training cooperative support vector machine ensembles (CSVMEs). CSVME combines ensemble architecture design with cooperative training for individual SVMs in ensembles. Unlike most previous studies on training ensembles, CSVME puts emphasis on both accuracy and collaboration among individual SVMs in an ensemble. A group of SVMs selected on the basis of recursive classifier elimination is used in CSVME, and the number of the individual SVMs selected to construct CSVME is determined by 10-fold cross-validation. This kind of SVME has been tested on two ovarian cancer datasets previously obtained by proteomic mass spectrometry. By combining several individual SVMs, the proposed method achieves better performance than the SVME of all base SVMs.
Support vector machine ensemble using rough sets theory
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2006-01-01
A support vector machine (SVM) ensemble classifier is proposed. Performance of SVM trained in an input space consisting of all the information from many sources is not always good. The strategy that the original input space is partitioned into several input subspaces usually works for improving the performance. Different from conventional partition methods, the partition method used in this paper, rough sets theory based attribute reduction, allows the input subspaces partially overlapped. These input subspaces can offer complementary information about hidden data patterns. In every subspace, an SVM sub-classifier is learned. With the information fusion techniques, those SVM sub-classifiers with better performance are selected and combined to construct an SVM ensemble. The proposed method is applied to decisionmaking of medical diagnosis. Comparison of performance between our method and several other popular ensemble methods is done. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed approach can make full use of the information contained in data and improve the decision-making performance.
Quantum teleportation between remote atomic-ensemble quantum memories
Bao, Xiao-Hui; Li, Che-Ming; Yuan, Zhen-Sheng; Lu, Chao-Yang; Pan, Jian-Wei
2012-01-01
Quantum teleportation and quantum memory are two crucial elements for large-scale quantum networks. With the help of prior distributed entanglement as a "quantum channel", quantum teleportation provides an intriguing means to faithfully transfer quantum states among distant locations without actual transmission of the physical carriers. Quantum memory enables controlled storage and retrieval of fast-flying photonic quantum bits with stationary matter systems, which is essential to achieve the scalability required for large-scale quantum networks. Combining these two capabilities, here we realize quantum teleportation between two remote atomic-ensemble quantum memory nodes, each composed of 100 million rubidium atoms and connected by a 150-meter optical fiber. The spinwave state of one atomic ensemble is mapped to a propagating photon, and subjected to Bell-state measurements with another single photon that is entangled with the spinwave state of the other ensemble. Two-photon detection events herald the succe...
An adaptive additive inflation scheme for Ensemble Kalman Filters
Sommer, Matthias; Janjic, Tijana
2016-04-01
Data assimilation for atmospheric dynamics requires an accurate estimate for the uncertainty of the forecast in order to obtain an optimal combination with available observations. This uncertainty has two components, firstly the uncertainty which originates in the the initial condition of that forecast itself and secondly the error of the numerical model used. While the former can be approximated quite successfully with an ensemble of forecasts (an additional sampling error will occur), little is known about the latter. For ensemble data assimilation, ad-hoc methods to address model error include multiplicative and additive inflation schemes, possibly also flow-dependent. The additive schemes rely on samples for the model error e.g. from short-term forecast tendencies or differences of forecasts with varying resolutions. However since these methods work in ensemble space (i.e. act directly on the ensemble perturbations) the sampling error is fixed and can be expected to affect the skill substiantially. In this contribution we show how inflation can be generalized to take into account more degrees of freedom and what improvements for future operational ensemble data assimilation can be expected from this, also in comparison with other inflation schemes.
Probabilistic Determination of Native State Ensembles of Proteins.
Olsson, Simon; Vögeli, Beat Rolf; Cavalli, Andrea; Boomsma, Wouter; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; Hamelryck, Thomas
2014-08-12
The motions of biological macromolecules are tightly coupled to their functions. However, while the study of fast motions has become increasingly feasible in recent years, the study of slower, biologically important motions remains difficult. Here, we present a method to construct native state ensembles of proteins by the combination of physical force fields and experimental data through modern statistical methodology. As an example, we use NMR residual dipolar couplings to determine a native state ensemble of the extensively studied third immunoglobulin binding domain of protein G (GB3). The ensemble accurately describes both local and nonlocal backbone fluctuations as judged by its reproduction of complementary experimental data. While it is difficult to assess precise time-scales of the observed motions, our results suggest that it is possible to construct realistic conformational ensembles of biomolecules very efficiently. The approach may allow for a dramatic reduction in the computational as well as experimental resources needed to obtain accurate conformational ensembles of biological macromolecules in a statistically sound manner.
Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaodong Luo
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF by (in effect adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.
Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging
Luo, X.
2012-10-03
Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.
Combined analysis of effective Higgs portal dark matter models
Beniwal, Ankit; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin; Williams, Anthony
2015-01-01
We combine and extend the analyses of effective scalar, vector, Majorana and Dirac fermion Higgs portal models of Dark Matter (DM), in which DM couples to the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson via an operator of the form $\\mathcal{O}_{\\textrm{DM}}\\, H^\\dagger H$. For the fermion models, we take an admixture of scalar $\\overline{\\psi} \\psi$ and pseudoscalar $\\overline{\\psi} i\\gamma_5 \\psi$ interaction terms. For each model, we apply constraints on the parameter space based on the Planck measured DM relic density and the LHC limits on the Higgs invisible branching ratio. For the first time, we perform a consistent study of the indirect detection prospects for these models based on the WMAP7/Planck observations of the CMB, a combined analysis of 15 dwarf spheroidal galaxies by Fermi-LAT and the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). We also perform a correct treatment of the momentum-dependent direct search cross-section that arises from the pseudoscalar interaction term in the fermionic DM theories. We find, i...
Mouse Karyotype Obtained by Combining DAPI Staining with Image Analysis
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2006-01-01
In this study, mitotic metaphase chromosomes in mouse were identified by a new chromosome fluorescence banding technique combining DAPI staining with image analysis. Clear 4', 6-diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI) multiple bands like G-bands could be produced in mouse. The MetaMorph software was then used to generate linescans of pixel intensity for the banded chromosomes from short arm to long arm. These linescans were sufficient not only to identify each individual chromosome but also analyze the physical sites of bands in chromosome. Based on the results, the clear and accurate karyotype of mouse metaphase chromosomes was established. The technique is therefore considered to be a new method for cytological studies of mouse.
Economical analysis of combined fuel cell generators and absorption chillers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Morsy El-Gohary
2013-06-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a co-generation system based on combined heat and power for commercial units. For installation of a co-generation system, certain estimates for this site should be performed through making assessments of electrical loads, domestic water, and thermal demand. This includes domestic hot water, selection of the type of power generator, fuel cell, and the type of air conditioning system, and absorption chillers. As a matter of fact, the co-generation system has demonstrated good results for both major aspects, economic and environmental. From the environmental point of view, this can be considered as an ideal solution for problems concerned with the usage of Chlorofluoro carbons. On the other hand, from the economic point of view, the cost analysis has revealed that the proposed system saves 4% of total cost through using the co-generation system.
Microflora analysis of a child with severe combined immune deficiency
Taylor, G. R.; Kropp, K. D.; Molina, T. C.
1978-01-01
The paper presents a microflora analysis of a 5-year-old male child with severe combined immune deficiency who was delivered by Caesarean section and continuously maintained in an isolator. Despite precautions, it was found that the child had come in contact with at least 54 different microbial contaminants. While his skin autoflora was similar to that of a reference group of healthy male adults in numbers of different species and the number of viable cells present per square centimeter of surface area, the subject's autoflora differed from the reference group in that significantly fewer anaerobic species were recovered from the patient's mouth and feces. It is suggested that the child's remaining disease free shows that the reported bacteria are noninvasive or that the unaffected components of the child's immune defense mechanisms are important.
Accounting for three sources of uncertainty in ensemble hydrological forecasting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Thiboult
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Seeking for more accuracy and reliability, the hydrometeorological community has developed several tools to decipher the different sources of uncertainty in relevant modeling processes. Among them, the Ensemble Kalman Filter, multimodel approaches and meteorological ensemble forecasting proved to have the capability to improve upon deterministic hydrological forecast. This study aims at untangling the sources of uncertainty by studying the combination of these tools and assessing their contribution to the overall forecast quality. Each of these components is able to capture a certain aspect of the total uncertainty and improve the forecast at different stage in the forecasting process by using different means. Their combination outperforms any of the tool used solely. The EnKF is shown to contribute largely to the ensemble accuracy and dispersion, indicating that the initial condition uncertainty is dominant. However, it fails to maintain the required dispersion throughout the entire forecast horizon and needs to be supported by a multimodel approach to take into account structural uncertainty. Moreover, the multimodel approach contributes to improve the general forecasting performance and prevents from falling into the model selection pitfall since models differ strongly in their ability. Finally, the use of probabilistic meteorological forcing was found to contribute mostly to long lead time reliability. Particular attention needs to be paid to the combination of the tools, especially in the Ensemble Kalman Filter tuning to avoid overlapping in error deciphering.
Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zied Ben Bouallègue
2013-02-01
Full Text Available COSMO-DE-EPS, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE, is pre-operational since December 2010, providing probabilistic forecasts which cover Germany. This ensemble system comprises 20 members based on variations of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics parameterizations and the initial conditions. In order to increase the sample size in a computationally inexpensive way, COSMO-DE-EPS is combined with alternative ensemble techniques: the neighborhood method and the time-lagged approach. Their impact on the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts is assessed. Objective verification is performed over a six months period, scores based on the Brier score and its decomposition are shown for June 2011. The combination of the ensemble system with the alternative approaches improves probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in particular for high precipitation thresholds. Moreover, combining COSMO-DE-EPS with only the time-lagged approach improves the skill of area probabilities for precipitation and does not deteriorate the skill of 2 m-temperature and wind gusts forecasts.
Novel algorithm for constructing support vector machine regression ensemble
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Li Bo; Li Xinjun; Zhao Zhiyan
2006-01-01
A novel algorithm for constructing support vector machine regression ensemble is proposed. As to regression prediction, support vector machine regression(SVMR) ensemble is proposed by resampling from given training data sets repeatedly and aggregating several independent SVMRs, each of which is trained to use a replicated training set. After training, several independently trained SVMRs need to be aggregated in an appropriate combination manner. Generally, the linear weighting is usually used like expert weighting score in Boosting Regression and it is without optimization capacity. Three combination techniques are proposed, including simple arithmetic mean,linear least square error weighting and nonlinear hierarchical combining that uses another upper-layer SVMR to combine several lower-layer SVMRs. Finally, simulation experiments demonstrate the accuracy and validity of the presented algorithm.
Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filter for geophysical data assimilation
Tsyrulnikov, Michael; Rakitko, Alexander
2016-04-01
In the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the forecast error covariance matrix B is estimated from a sample (ensemble), which inevitably implies a degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty is especially large in high dimensions, where the affordable ensemble size is orders of magnitude less than the dimensionality of the system. Common remedies include ad-hoc devices like variance inflation and covariance localization. The goal of this study is to optimize the account for the inherent uncertainty of the B matrix in EnKF. Following the idea by Myrseth and Omre (2010), we explicitly admit that the B matrix is unknown and random and estimate it along with the state (x) in an optimal hierarchical Bayes analysis scheme. We separate forecast errors into predictability errors (i.e. forecast errors due to uncertainties in the initial data) and model errors (forecast errors due to imperfections in the forecast model) and include the two respective components P and Q of the B matrix into the extended control vector (x,P,Q). Similarly, we break the traditional forecast ensemble into the predictability-error related ensemble and model-error related ensemble. The reason for the separation of model errors from predictability errors is the fundamental difference between the two sources of error. Model error are external (i.e. do not depend on the filter's performance) whereas predictability errors are internal to a filter (i.e. are determined by the filter's behavior). At the analysis step, we specify Inverse Wishart based priors for the random matrices P and Q and conditionally Gaussian prior for the state x. Then, we update the prior distribution of (x,P,Q) using both observation and ensemble data, so that ensemble members are used as generalized observations and ordinary observations are allowed to influence the covariances. We show that for linear dynamics and linear observation operators, conditional Gaussianity of the state is preserved in the course of filtering. At the forecast
Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Motion Using a Baroclinic Model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Xiaqiong ZHOU; Johnny C.L.CHEN
2006-01-01
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of two different ensemble forecasting (EF) techniques-the lagged-averaged forecast (LAF) and the breeding of growing modes (BGM). In the BGM experiments, the vortex and the environment are perturbed separately (named BGMV and BGME).Tropical cyclone (TC) motions in two difficult situations are studied: a large vortex interacting with its environment, and an apparent binary interaction. The former is Typhoon Yancy and the latter involves Typhoon Ed and super Typhoon Flo, all occurring during the Tropical Cyclone Motion Experiment TCM-90. The model used is the baroclinic model of the University of New South Wales. The lateral boundary tendencies are computed from atmospheric analysis data. Only the relative skill of the ensemble forecast mean over the control run is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the EF methods, although the EF technique is also used to quantify forecast uncertainty in some studies. In the case of Yancy, the ensemble mean forecasts of each of the three methodologies are better than that of the control, with LAF being the best. The mean track of the LAF is close to the best track, and it predicts landfall over Taiwan. The improvements in LAF and the full BGM where both the environment and vortex are perturbed suggest the importance of combining the perturbation of the vortex and environment when the interaction between the two is appreciable. In the binary interaction case of Ed and Flo, the forecasts of Ed appear to be insensitive to perturbations of the environment and/or the vortex, which apparently results from erroneous forecasts by the model of the interaction between the subtropical ridge and Ed, as well as from the interaction between the two typhoons, thus reducing the effectiveness of the EF technique. This conclusion is reached through sensitivity experiments on the domain of the model and by adding or eliminating certain features in the model atmosphere. Nevertheless, the
Development of Ensemble Model Based Water Demand Forecasting Model
Kwon, Hyun-Han; So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Seong-Hyeon; Kim, Byung-Seop
2014-05-01
In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and optimal pump operation and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. Existing water demand forecasting models are categorized into two groups in view of modeling and predicting their behavior in time series. One is to consider embedded patterns such as seasonality, periodicity and trends, and the other one is an autoregressive model that is using short memory Markovian processes (Emmanuel et al., 2012). The main disadvantage of the abovementioned model is that there is a limit to predictability of water demands of about sub-daily scale because the system is nonlinear. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The proposed model is consist of two parts. One is a multi-model scheme that is based on combination of independent prediction model. The other one is a cross validation scheme named Bagging approach introduced by Brieman (1996) to derive weighting factors corresponding to individual models. Individual forecasting models that used in this study are linear regression analysis model, polynomial regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS), SVM(support vector machine). The concepts are demonstrated through application to observed from water plant at several locations in the South Korea. Keywords: water demand, non-linear model, the ensemble forecasting model, uncertainty. Acknowledgements This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Projects for Developing Eco-Innovation Technologies (GT-11-G-02-001-6)
Cluster Ensemble-based Image Segmentation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaoru Wang
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Image segmentation is the foundation of computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a new\tcluster ensemble-based image\tsegmentation algorithm, which overcomes several problems of traditional methods. We make two main contributions in this paper. First, we introduce the cluster ensemble concept to fuse the segmentation results from different types of visual features effectively, which can deliver a better final result and achieve a much more stable performance for broad categories of images. Second, we exploit the PageRank idea from Internet applications and apply it to the image segmentation task. This can improve the final segmentation results by combining the spatial information of the image and the semantic similarity of regions. Our experiments on four public image databases validate the superiority of our algorithm over conventional single type of feature or multiple types of features-based algorithms, since our algorithm can fuse multiple types of features effectively for better segmentation results. Moreover, our method is also proved to be very competitive in comparison with other state-of-the-art segmentation algorithms.
Study on ETKF-Based Initial Perturbation Scheme for GRAPES Global Ensemble Prediction
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
MA Xulin; XUE Jishan; LU Weisong
2009-01-01
Initial perturbation scheme is one of the important problems for ensemble prediction. In this paper,ensemble initial perturbation scheme for Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES)global ensemble prediction is developed in terms of the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) method.A new GRAPES global ensemble prediction system (GEPS) is also constructed. The spherical simplex 14-member ensemble prediction experiments, using the simulated observation network and error character-lstics of simulated observations and innovation-based inflation, are carried out for about two months. The structure characters and perturbation amplitudes of the ETKF initial perturbations and the perturbation growth characters are analyzed, and their qualities and abilities for the ensemble initial perturbations are given.The preliminary experimental results indicate that the ETKF-based GRAPES ensemble initial perturba- tions could identify main normal structures of analysis error variance and reflect the perturbation amplitudes.The initial perturbations and the spread are reasonable. The initial perturbation variance, which is approx-imately equal to the forecast error variance, is found to respond to changes in the observational spatial variations with simulated observational network density. The perturbations generated through the simplex method are also shown to exhibit a very high degree of consistency between initial analysis and short-range forecast perturbations. The appropriate growth and spread of ensemble perturbations can be maintained up to 96-h lead time. The statistical results for 52-day ensemble forecasts show that the forecast scores of ensemble average for the Northern Hemisphere are higher than that of the control forecast. Provided that using more ensemble members, a real-time observational network and a more appropriate inflation factor,better effects of the ETKF-based initial scheme should be shown.
Ensemble Learned Vaccination Uptake Prediction using Web Search Queries
Hansen, Niels Dalum; Lioma, Christina; Mølbak, Kåre
2016-01-01
We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake eff?ectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields...
Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System (HEPS)
Thielen-Del Pozo, J.; Schaake, J.; Martin, E.; Pailleux, J.; Pappenberger, F.
2010-09-01
Flood forecasting systems form a key part of ‘preparedness' strategies for disastrous floods and provide hydrological services, civil protection authorities and the public with information of upcoming events. Provided the warning leadtime is sufficiently long, adequate preparatory actions can be taken to efficiently reduce the impacts of the flooding. Following on the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting, the hydrological community now moves increasingly towards Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) for improved flood forecasting using operationally available NWP products as inputs. However, these products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared to hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the non-linear hydrological filters. Therefore, a better understanding on how best to produce, communicate and use hydrologic ensemble forecasts in hydrological short-, medium- und long term prediction of hydrological processes is necessary. The "Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment" (HEPEX), is an international initiative consisting of hydrologists, meteorologist and end-users to advance probabilistic hydrologic forecast techniques for flood, drought and water management applications. Different aspects of the hydrological ensemble processor are being addressed including • Production of useful meteorological products relevant for hydrological applications, ranging from nowcasting products to seasonal forecasts. The importance of hindcasts that are consistent with the operational weather forecasts will be discussed to support bias correction and downscaling, statistically meaningful verification of HEPS, and the development and testing of operating rules; • Need for downscaling and post-processing of weather ensembles to reduce bias before entering hydrological applications; • Hydrological model and parameter uncertainty and how to correct and
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin
2013-01-01
Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater
Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin
2011-12-27
Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21(st) century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21(st) century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater
Symanzik flow on HISQ ensembles
Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Hetrick, J E; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Oktay, M; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S; Zhou, R
2013-01-01
We report on a scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The lattice scale $w_0/a$, originally proposed by the BMW collaboration, is computed using Symanzik flow at four lattice spacings ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm. With a Taylor series ansatz, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. We give a preliminary determination of the scale $w_0$ in physical units, along with associated systematic errors, and compare with results from other groups. We also present a first estimate of autocorrelation lengths as a function of flowtime for these ensembles.
Xu, Fang-Hua; Oey, Lie-Yauw
2014-06-01
A new circulation model of the western North Pacific Ocean based on the parallelized version of the Princeton Ocean Model and incorporating the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation scheme has been developed. The new model assimilates satellite data and is tested for the period January 1 to April 3, 2012 initialized from a 24-year simulation to estimate the ocean state focusing in the South China Sea (SCS). Model results are compared against estimates based on the optimum interpolation (OI) assimilation scheme and are validated against independent Argo float and transport data to assess model skills. LETKF provides improved estimates of the western North Pacific Ocean state including transports through various straits in the SCS. In the Luzon Strait, the model confirms, for the first time, the three-layer transport structure previously deduced in the literature from sparse observations: westward in the upper and lower layers and eastward in the middle layer. This structure is shown to be robust, and the related dynamics are analyzed using the results of a long-term (18 years) unassimilated North Pacific Ocean model. Potential vorticity and mass conservations suggest a basin-wide cyclonic circulation in the upper layer of the SCS ( z > -570 m), an anticyclonic circulation in the middle layer (-570 m ≥ z > -2,000 m), and, in the abyssal basin (reduced-gravity model as being caused by overflow over the deep sill of the Luzon Strait, coupled with intense, localized upwelling west of the strait.
Ensembl Genomes 2013: scaling up access to genome-wide data
Ensembl Genomes (http://www.ensemblgenomes.org) is an integrating resource for genome-scale data from non-vertebrate species. The project exploits and extends technologies for genome annotation, analysis and dissemination, developed in the context of the vertebrate-focused Ensembl project, and provi...
Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frank Sienz
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Retrospective prediction experiments have to be performed to estimate the skill of decadal prediction systems. These are necessarily restricted in the number due to the computational constraints. From weather and seasonal prediction it is known that the ensemble size is crucial to yield reliable predictions. Differences are expected for decadal predictions due to the differing time-scales of the involved processes and the longer prediction horizon. A conceptual model is applied that enables the systematic analysis of ensemble size dependencies in a framework close to that of decadal predictions. Differences are quantified in terms of the confidence intervals coverage and the power of statistical tests for prediction scores. In addition, the concepts are applied to decadal predicitions of the MiKlip Baseline1 system. It is shown that small ensemble, as well as hindcast sample sizes lead to biased test performances in a way that the detection of a present prediction skill is hampered. Experiments with ensemble sizes smaller than 10 are not recommended to evaluate decadal prediction skill or as basis for the prediction system developement. For regions with low signal-to-noise ratios much larger ensembles are required and it is shown that in this case successful decadal predictions are possible for the Central European summer temperatures.
Ensemble of Thermostatically Controlled Loads: Statistical Physics Approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Skolkovo Inst. of Science and Technology, Moscow (Russia); Chernyak, Vladimir [Wayne State Univ., Detroit, MI (United States). Dept. of Chemistry
2017-01-17
Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL), e.g. air-conditioners and heaters, are by far the most wide-spread consumers of electricity. Normally the devices are calibrated to provide the so-called bang-bang control of temperature - changing from on to off , and vice versa, depending on temperature. Aggregation of a large group of similar devices into a statistical ensemble is considered, where the devices operate following the same dynamics subject to stochastic perturbations and randomized, Poisson on/off switching policy. We analyze, using theoretical and computational tools of statistical physics, how the ensemble relaxes to a stationary distribution and establish relation between the re- laxation and statistics of the probability flux, associated with devices' cycling in the mixed (discrete, switch on/off , and continuous, temperature) phase space. This allowed us to derive and analyze spec- trum of the non-equilibrium (detailed balance broken) statistical system. and uncover how switching policy affects oscillatory trend and speed of the relaxation. Relaxation of the ensemble is of a practical interest because it describes how the ensemble recovers from significant perturbations, e.g. forceful temporary switching o aimed at utilizing flexibility of the ensemble in providing "demand response" services relieving consumption temporarily to balance larger power grid. We discuss how the statistical analysis can guide further development of the emerging demand response technology.
Ensemble Learning of Tissue Components for Prostate Histopathology Image Grading
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dheeb Albashish
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Ensemble learning is an effective machine learning approach to improve the prediction performance by fusing several single classifier models. In computer-aided diagnosis system (CAD, machine learning has become one of the dominant solutions for tissue images diagnosis and grading. One problem in a single classifier model for multi-components of the tissue images combination to construct dense feature vectors is the overfitting. In this paper, an ensemble learning for multi-component tissue images classification approach is proposed. The prostate cancer Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E histopathology images from HUKM were used to test the proposed ensemble approach for diagnosing and Gleason grading. The experiments results of several prostate classification tasks, namely, benign vs. Grade 3, benign vs.Grade4, and Grade 3vs.Grade 4 show that the proposed ensemble significantly outperforms the previous typical CAD and the naïve approach that combines the texture features of all tissue component directly in dense feature vectors for a classifier.
An Adaptive Approach to Mitigate Background Covariance Limitations in the Ensemble Kalman Filter
Song, Hajoon
2010-07-01
A new approach is proposed to address the background covariance limitations arising from undersampled ensembles and unaccounted model errors in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The method enhances the representativeness of the EnKF ensemble by augmenting it with new members chosen adaptively to add missing information that prevents the EnKF from fully fitting the data to the ensemble. The vectors to be added are obtained by back projecting the residuals of the observation misfits from the EnKF analysis step onto the state space. The back projection is done using an optimal interpolation (OI) scheme based on an estimated covariance of the subspace missing from the ensemble. In the experiments reported here, the OI uses a preselected stationary background covariance matrix, as in the hybrid EnKF–three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) approach, but the resulting correction is included as a new ensemble member instead of being added to all existing ensemble members. The adaptive approach is tested with the Lorenz-96 model. The hybrid EnKF–3DVAR is used as a benchmark to evaluate the performance of the adaptive approach. Assimilation experiments suggest that the new adaptive scheme significantly improves the EnKF behavior when it suffers from small size ensembles and neglected model errors. It was further found to be competitive with the hybrid EnKF–3DVAR approach, depending on ensemble size and data coverage.
Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Glass Transition Behavior of Polyimide Ensemble
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2001-01-01
The effect of chromophores to the glass transition temperature of polyimide ensemble has been investigated by means of molecular dynamics simulation in conjunction with barrier analysis. Simulated Tg results indicated a good agreement with experimental value. This study showed the MD simulation could estimate the effect of chromophores to the Tg of polyimide ensemble conveniently and an estimation approach method had a surprising deviation of Tg from experiment. At the same time, a polyimide structure with higher barrier energy was designed and validated by MD simulation.
Generalized Hypergeometric Ensembles: Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Complex Networks
Casiraghi, Giona; Scholtes, Ingo; Schweitzer, Frank
2016-01-01
Statistical ensembles define probability spaces of all networks consistent with given aggregate statistics and have become instrumental in the analysis of relational data on networked systems. Their numerical and analytical study provides the foundation for the inference of topological patterns, the definition of network-analytic measures, as well as for model selection and statistical hypothesis testing. Contributing to the foundation of these important data science techniques, in this article we introduce generalized hypergeometric ensembles, a framework of analytically tractable statistical ensembles of finite, directed and weighted networks. This framework can be interpreted as a generalization of the classical configuration model, which is commonly used to randomly generate networks with a given degree sequence or distribution. Our generalization rests on the introduction of dyadic link propensities, which capture the degree-corrected tendencies of pairs of nodes to form edges between each other. Studyin...
Simulating European heatwaves with WRF - a multi-physics ensemble approach
Stegehuis, Annemiek; Vautard, Robert; Ciais, Philippe; Teuling, Ryan
2014-05-01
There is a need to simulate mega heatwaves as impacts are large and they are expected to become more frequent in the future. Current climate models are calibrated on the current climate without such impacting events. Studies with model ensembles have been done, but less with physics ensembles. Here we investigate what physics are suitable to simulate the heatwaves of 2003 (Europe) and 2010 (Russia) with WRF, a regional climate model. We run the model over 200 times with different combinations of physics. We find that only few combinations can simulate the observed temperatures during the heatwaves, but also during a normal summer. Monthly precipitation is mostly overestimated, while the observations of monthly global European radiation lay on average in the middle of the model simulations. Most of the variation between simulations is due to the convection scheme. We rank all runs based on observed temperature, precipitation and radiation. The 5 best performing runs are also tested for other regions and variables. In our opinion these physic combinations can best be used to perform further heatwave analysis when using WRF.
A combined approach for comparative exoproteome analysis of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Scrivens James H
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Bacterial exported proteins represent key components of the host-pathogen interplay. Hence, we sought to implement a combined approach for characterizing the entire exoproteome of the pathogenic bacterium Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis, the etiological agent of caseous lymphadenitis (CLA in sheep and goats. Results An optimized protocol of three-phase partitioning (TPP was used to obtain the C. pseudotuberculosis exoproteins, and a newly introduced method of data-independent MS acquisition (LC-MSE was employed for protein identification and label-free quantification. Additionally, the recently developed tool SurfG+ was used for in silico prediction of sub-cellular localization of the identified proteins. In total, 93 different extracellular proteins of C. pseudotuberculosis were identified with high confidence by this strategy; 44 proteins were commonly identified in two different strains, isolated from distinct hosts, then composing a core C. pseudotuberculosis exoproteome. Analysis with the SurfG+ tool showed that more than 75% (70/93 of the identified proteins could be predicted as containing signals for active exportation. Moreover, evidence could be found for probable non-classical export of most of the remaining proteins. Conclusions Comparative analyses of the exoproteomes of two C. pseudotuberculosis strains, in addition to comparison with other experimentally determined corynebacterial exoproteomes, were helpful to gain novel insights into the contribution of the exported proteins in the virulence of this bacterium. The results presented here compose the most comprehensive coverage of the exoproteome of a corynebacterial species so far.
Analysis of the Bias on the Beidou GEO Multipath Combinations
Ning, Yafei; Yuan, Yunbin; Chai, Yanju; Huang, Yong
2016-01-01
The Beidou navigation satellite system is a very important sensor for positioning in the Asia-Pacific region. The Beidou inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) and medium Earth orbit (MEO) satellites have been analysed in some studies previously conducted by other researchers; this paper seeks to gain more insight regarding the geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites. Employing correlation analysis, Fourier transformation and wavelet decomposition, we validate whether there is a systematic bias in their multipath combinations. These biases can be observed clearly in satellites C01, C02 and C04 and have a great correlation with time series instead of elevation, being significantly different from those of the Beidou IGSO and MEO satellites. We propose a correction model to mitigate this bias based on its daily periodicity characteristic. After the model has been applied, the performance of the positioning estimations of the eight stations distributed in the Asia-Pacific region is evaluated and compared. The results show that residuals of multipath series behaves random noise; for the single point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) approaches, the positioning accuracy in the upward direction can be improved by 8 cm and 6 mm, respectively, and by 2 cm and 4 mm, respectively, for the horizontal component. PMID:27509503
Combined Thermo-Hydraulic Analysis of a Cryogenic Jet
Chorowski, M
1999-01-01
A cryogenic jet is a phenomenon encountered in different fields like some technological processes and cryosurgery. It may also be a result of cryogenic equipment rupture or a cryogen discharge from the cryostats following resistive transition in superconducting magnets. Heat exchange between a cold jet and a warm steel element (e.g. a buffer tank wall or a transfer line vacuum vessel wall) may result in an excessive localisation of thermal strains and stresses. The objective of the analysis is to get a combined (analytical and experimental) one-dimensional model of a cryogenic jet that will enable estimation of heat transfer intensity between the jet and steel plate with a suitable accuracy for engineering applications. The jet diameter can only be determined experimentally. The mean velocity profile can be calculated from the fact that the total flux of momentum along the jet axis is conserved. The proposed model allows deriving the jet crown area with respect to the distance from the vent and the mean veloc...
Xu, Ning; Zhou, Guofu; Li, Xiaojuan; Lu, Heng; Meng, Fanyun; Zhai, Huaqiang
2017-05-01
A reliable and comprehensive method for identifying the origin and assessing the quality of Epimedium has been developed. The method is based on analysis of HPLC fingerprints, combined with similarity analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), principal component analysis (PCA) and multi-ingredient quantitative analysis. Nineteen batches of Epimedium, collected from different areas in the western regions of China, were used to establish the fingerprints and 18 peaks were selected for the analysis. Similarity analysis, HCA and PCA all classified the 19 areas into three groups. Simultaneous quantification of the five major bioactive ingredients in the Epimedium samples was also carried out to confirm the consistency of the quality tests. These methods were successfully used to identify the geographical origin of the Epimedium samples and to evaluate their quality.
Building Orff Ensemble Skills with Mentally Handicapped Adolescents.
Dervan, Nancy
1982-01-01
Discusses how Orff-Schulwerk methods are used to teach music ensemble skills to mentally retarded adolescents. The author describes how the analysis of basic musical tasks reveals the essential subskills of motor coordination, timing, and attentiveness necessary to music-making. Specific teaching methods for skill development and Orff…
Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble-Based Estimates of Solvation Free Energies
Gosink, Luke J; Reehl, Sarah M; Whitney, Paul D; Mobley, David L; Baker, Nathan A
2016-01-01
This paper applies the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) statistical ensemble technique to estimate small molecule solvation free energies. There is a wide range methods for predicting solvation free energies, ranging from empirical statistical models to ab initio quantum mechanical approaches. Each of these methods are based on a set of conceptual assumptions that can affect a method's predictive accuracy and transferability. Using an iterative statistical process, we have selected and combined solvation energy estimates using an ensemble of 17 diverse methods from the SAMPL4 blind prediction study to form a single, aggregated solvation energy estimate. The ensemble design process evaluates the statistical information in each individual method as well as the performance of the aggregate estimate obtained from the ensemble as a whole. Methods that possess minimal or redundant information are pruned from the ensemble and the evaluation process repeats until aggregate predictive performance can no longer be improv...
Matrices of fidelities for ensembles of quantum states and the Holevo quantity
Fannes, Mark; Roga, Wojciech; Zyczkowski, Karol
2011-01-01
The entropy of the Gram matrix of a joint purification of an ensemble of K mixed states yields an upper bound for the Holevo information Chi of the ensemble. In this work we combine geometrical and probabilistic aspects of the ensemble in order to obtain useful bounds for Chi. This is done by constructing various correlation matrices involving fidelities between every pair of states from the ensemble. For K=3 quantum states we design a matrix of root fidelities that is positive and the entropy of which is conjectured to upper bound Chi. Slightly weaker bounds are established for arbitrary ensembles. Finally, we investigate correlation matrices involving multi-state fidelities in relation to the Holevo quantity.
Cezar, Henrique M.; Rondina, Gustavo G.; Da Silva, Juarez L. F.
2017-02-01
A basic requirement for an atom-level understanding of nanoclusters is the knowledge of their atomic structure. This understanding is incomplete if it does not take into account temperature effects, which play a crucial role in phase transitions and changes in the overall stability of the particles. Finite size particles present intricate potential energy surfaces, and rigorous descriptions of temperature effects are best achieved by exploiting extended ensemble algorithms, such as the Parallel Tempering Monte Carlo (PTMC). In this study, we employed the PTMC algorithm, implemented from scratch, to sample configurations of LJn (n =38 , 55, 98, 147) particles at a wide range of temperatures. The heat capacities and phase transitions obtained with our PTMC implementation are consistent with all the expected features for the LJ nanoclusters, e.g., solid to solid and solid to liquid. To identify the known phase transitions and assess the prevalence of various structural motifs available at different temperatures, we propose a combination of a Leader-like clustering algorithm based on a Euclidean metric with the PTMC sampling. This combined approach is further compared with the more computationally demanding bond order analysis, typically employed for this kind of problem. We show that the clustering technique yields the same results in most cases, with the advantage that it requires no previous knowledge of the parameters defining each geometry. Being simple to implement, we believe that this straightforward clustering approach is a valuable data analysis tool that can provide insights into the physics of finite size particles with few to thousand atoms at a relatively low cost.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lili Lei
2012-05-01
Full Text Available A hybrid data assimilation approach combining nudging and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF for dynamic analysis and numerical weather prediction is explored here using the non-linear Lorenz three-variable model system with the goal of a smooth, continuous and accurate data assimilation. The hybrid nudging-EnKF (HNEnKF computes the hybrid nudging coefficients from the flow-dependent, time-varying error covariance matrix from the EnKF's ensemble forecasts. It extends the standard diagonal nudging terms to additional off-diagonal statistical correlation terms for greater inter-variable influence of the innovations in the model's predictive equations to assist in the data assimilation process. The HNEnKF promotes a better fit of an analysis to data compared to that achieved by either nudging or incremental analysis update (IAU. When model error is introduced, it produces similar or better root mean square errors compared to the EnKF while minimising the error spikes/discontinuities created by the intermittent EnKF. It provides a continuous data assimilation with better inter-variable consistency and improved temporal smoothness than that of the EnKF. Data assimilation experiments are also compared to the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS. The HNEnKF has similar or better temporal smoothness than that of the EnKS, and with much smaller central processing unit (CPU time and data storage requirements.
基于噪声辅助分析的总体局部均值分解方法%Ensemble Local Mean Decomposition Method Based on Noise-assisted Analysis
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
程军圣; 张亢; 杨宇
2011-01-01
The local mean decomposition (LMD) is a newly self-adaptive time-frequency analysis method. Mode mixing phenomenon which makes the decomposition results distortion may be produced when LMD is performed. The filter bank structure of LMD in white noise is obtained by numerical experiments, and based on this, the ensemble local mean decomposition method (ELMD) is proposed to overcome the shortcomings of mode mixing. In ELMD, different white noise is added to the targeted signal.The noise-added signal is decomposed by using LMD. Several decomposed results is severed as the final decomposition result. The analytical results from simulated signal and experimental rotor local rub-impact signal demonstrate that the ELMD method can be used to improve the mode mixing of the original LMD method effectively.%局部均值分解(Local mean decomposition, LMD)方法是一种新的自适应时频分析方法,但在其实现过程中会发生模态混淆现象,使分析结果失真.通过数值试验得到了LMD对白噪声的滤波器组结构,并在此基础上,针对模态混淆现象提出总体局部均值分解(Ensemble local mean decomposition, ELMD)方法.在该方法中添加不同的白噪声到目标信号,分别对加噪后的信号进行LMD分解,最后将多次分解结果的平均值作为最终的分解结果.对仿真信号和试验转子局部碰摩信号进行分析,结果表明ELMD方法能有效地克服原LMD方法的模态混淆现象.
Combining different types of classifiers
Gatnar, Eugeniusz
2008-01-01
Model fusion has proved to be a very successful strategy for obtaining accurate models in classification and regression. The key issue, however, is the diversity of the component classifiers because classification error of an ensemble depends on the correlation between its members. The majority of existing ensemble methods combine the same type of models, e.g. trees. In order to promote the diversity of the ensemble members, we propose to aggregate classifiers of different t...
Combined statistical analysis of landslide release and propagation
Mergili, Martin; Rohmaneo, Mohammad; Chu, Hone-Jay
2016-04-01
quantify this relationship by a set of empirical curves. (6) Finally, we multiply the zonal release probability with the impact probability in order to estimate the combined impact probability for each pixel. We demonstrate the model with a 167 km² study area in Taiwan, using an inventory of landslides triggered by the typhoon Morakot. Analyzing the model results leads us to a set of key conclusions: (i) The average composite impact probability over the entire study area corresponds well to the density of observed landside pixels. Therefore we conclude that the method is valid in general, even though the concept of the zonal release probability bears some conceptual issues that have to be kept in mind. (ii) The parameters used as predictors cannot fully explain the observed distribution of landslides. The size of the release zone influences the composite impact probability to a larger degree than the pixel-based release probability. (iii) The prediction rate increases considerably when excluding the largest, deep-seated, landslides from the analysis. We conclude that such landslides are mainly related to geological features hardly reflected in the predictor layers used.
2012-01-01
Licence; En 1935, un groupe de mathématiciens français eut l'ambition de reconstruire tout l'édifice mathématique (sans S pour bien montrer l'unité) selon la pensée formaliste de Hilbert. Les membres fondateurs ont été Henri Cartan, Claude Chevalley, Jean Delsarte, Jean Dieudonné, André Weil auxquels se joindra René de Possel. En juillet 1935 fut donc créé, lors d'un séminaire en Auvergne le groupe 'Nicolas Bourbaki'. Le nom de cette association fait référence en fait à une anecdote qui se pa...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Rasmussen
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members, an adaptive localization method is used. The performance of the adaptive localization method is compared to the more common local analysis localization. The relationship between filter performance in terms of hydraulic head and discharge error and the number of ensemble members is investigated for varying numbers and spatial distributions of groundwater head observations and with or without discharge assimilation and parameter estimation. The study shows that (1 more ensemble members are needed when fewer groundwater head observations are assimilated, and (2 assimilating discharge observations and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms local analysis localization.
Tracking the Kasatochi SO2 plume using the Ensemble Kalman Filter and OMI observations
Vira, Julius; Theys, Nicolas; Sofiev, Mikhail
2016-04-01
This paper discusses an application of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation method in improving prediction of volcanic plumes. Column retrievals of SO2 from the OMI instrument are assimilated into the SILAM chemistry transport model during 8 days following the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi. The analysis ensemble is shown to accurately capture the observed horizontal distribution of the plume, and moreover, comparison with backscatter profiles from the CALIOP instrument indicates that the analysis recovers the vertical distribution of SO2 realistically. The total SO2 burden following the eruption converges to about 2 Tg, which is within the range of previous estimates. The assimilation scheme uses an 80-member ensemble generated by perturbing the source term and the meteorological input data. The SO2 emission flux is sampled from a log-normal probability distribution resulting in large initial spread in the ensemble. A prescribed umbrella profile and a power law relation between the injection height and mass flux are assumed. However, despite the assumptions in the source term perturbations, the analysis ensemble is shown to be capable of reproducing complex, multi-layer SO2 profiles consistent with previous modeling studies on the Kasatochi eruption. The meteorological perturbations are introduced in the form of random time shifts in the input data, which ensures that the input data for each ensemble member remain physically consistent. Including the meteorological perturbations prevents the ensemble spread from decreasing unrealistically as the simulation proceeds, and consequently, the assimilation remains effective in correcting the predictions throughout the simulated period. In conclusion, EnKF is a promising approach for assimilating satellite observations in volcanic plume forecasts. An advantage of the ensemble approach is that model uncertainty, which is often difficult to handle in other schemes, can be included by perturbing the ensemble. A
Measurement uncertainty analysis on laser tracker combined with articulated CMM
Zhao, Hui-ning; Yu, Lian-dong; Du, Yun; Zhang, Hai-yan
2013-10-01
The combined measurement technology plays an increasingly important role in the digitalized assembly. This paper introduces a combined measurement system consists of a Laser tracker and a FACMM,with the applications in the inspection of the position of the inner parts in a large-scale device. When these measurement instruments are combined, the resulting coordinate data set contains uncertainties that are a function of the base data sets and complex interactions between the measurement sets. Combined with the characteristics of Laser Tracker and Flexible Articulated Coordinate Measuring Machine (FACMM),Monte-Claro simulation mothed is employed in the uncertainty evaluation of combined measurement systems. A case study is given to demonstrate the practical applications of this research.
Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering
Liu, Bo
2015-11-11
We consider the Bayesian filtering problem for data assimilation following the kernel-based ensemble Gaussian-mixture filtering (EnGMF) approach introduced by Anderson and Anderson (1999). In this approach, the posterior distribution of the system state is propagated with the model using the ensemble Monte Carlo method, providing a forecast ensemble that is then used to construct a prior Gaussian-mixture (GM) based on the kernel density estimator. This results in two update steps: a Kalman filter (KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence of the bandwidth parameter of the kernel function on the covariance of the posterior distribution. We then focus on two aspects: i) the efficient implementation of EnGMF with (relatively) small ensembles, where we propose a new deterministic resampling strategy preserving the first two moments of the posterior GM to limit the sampling error; and ii) the analysis of the effect of the bandwidth parameter on contributions of KF and PF updates and on the weights variance. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model are presented to assess the behavior of EnGMF with deterministic resampling, study its sensitivity to different parameters and settings, and evaluate its performance against ensemble KFs. The proposed EnGMF approach with deterministic resampling suggests improved estimates in all tested scenarios, and is shown to require less localization and to be less sensitive to the choice of filtering parameters.
Quantum Repeaters and Atomic Ensembles
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Borregaard, Johannes
a previous protocol, thereby enabling fast local processing, which greatly enhances the distribution rate. We then move on to describe our work on improving the stability of atomic clocks using entanglement. Entanglement can potentially push the stability of atomic clocks to the so-called Heisenberg limit......, which is the absolute upper limit of the stability allowed by the Heisenberg uncertainty relation. It has, however, been unclear whether entangled state’s enhanced sensitivity to noise would prevent reaching this limit. We have developed an adaptive measurement protocol, which circumvents this problem...... based on atomic ensembles....
Ensemble Methods Foundations and Algorithms
Zhou, Zhi-Hua
2012-01-01
An up-to-date, self-contained introduction to a state-of-the-art machine learning approach, Ensemble Methods: Foundations and Algorithms shows how these accurate methods are used in real-world tasks. It gives you the necessary groundwork to carry out further research in this evolving field. After presenting background and terminology, the book covers the main algorithms and theories, including Boosting, Bagging, Random Forest, averaging and voting schemes, the Stacking method, mixture of experts, and diversity measures. It also discusses multiclass extension, noise tolerance, error-ambiguity a
Gibbs Ensembles of Nonintersecting Paths
Borodin, Alexei
2008-01-01
We consider a family of determinantal random point processes on the two-dimensional lattice and prove that members of our family can be interpreted as a kind of Gibbs ensembles of nonintersecting paths. Examples include probability measures on lozenge and domino tilings of the plane, some of which are non-translation-invariant. The correlation kernels of our processes can be viewed as extensions of the discrete sine kernel, and we show that the Gibbs property is a consequence of simple linear relations satisfied by these kernels. The processes depend on infinitely many parameters, which are closely related to parametrization of totally positive Toeplitz matrices.
Interpreting Tree Ensembles with inTrees
Deng, Houtao
2014-01-01
Tree ensembles such as random forests and boosted trees are accurate but difficult to understand, debug and deploy. In this work, we provide the inTrees (interpretable trees) framework that extracts, measures, prunes and selects rules from a tree ensemble, and calculates frequent variable interactions. An rule-based learner, referred to as the simplified tree ensemble learner (STEL), can also be formed and used for future prediction. The inTrees framework can applied to both classification an...
Sequential Combination Methods forData Clustering Analysis
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
钱 涛; Ching Y.Suen; 唐远炎
2002-01-01
This paper proposes the use of more than one clustering method to improve clustering performance. Clustering is an optimization procedure based on a specific clustering criterion. Clustering combination can be regardedasatechnique that constructs and processes multiple clusteringcriteria.Sincetheglobalandlocalclusteringcriteriaarecomplementary rather than competitive, combining these two types of clustering criteria may enhance theclustering performance. In our past work, a multi-objective programming based simultaneous clustering combination algorithmhasbeenproposed, which incorporates multiple criteria into an objective function by a weighting method, and solves this problem with constrained nonlinear optimization programming. But this algorithm has high computationalcomplexity.Hereasequential combination approach is investigated, which first uses the global criterion based clustering to produce an initial result, then uses the local criterion based information to improve the initial result with aprobabilisticrelaxation algorithm or linear additive model.Compared with the simultaneous combination method, sequential combination haslow computational complexity. Results on some simulated data and standard test data arereported.Itappearsthatclustering performance improvement can be achieved at low cost through sequential combination.
Security Enrichment in Intrusion Detection System Using Classifier Ensemble
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Uma R. Salunkhe
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In the era of Internet and with increasing number of people as its end users, a large number of attack categories are introduced daily. Hence, effective detection of various attacks with the help of Intrusion Detection Systems is an emerging trend in research these days. Existing studies show effectiveness of machine learning approaches in handling Intrusion Detection Systems. In this work, we aim to enhance detection rate of Intrusion Detection System by using machine learning technique. We propose a novel classifier ensemble based IDS that is constructed using hybrid approach which combines data level and feature level approach. Classifier ensembles combine the opinions of different experts and improve the intrusion detection rate. Experimental results show the improved detection rates of our system compared to reference technique.
Well-posedness and accuracy of the ensemble Kalman filter in discrete and continuous time
Kelly, D. T B
2014-09-22
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations associated with the filter, which are required to make a useable algorithm in practice, are derived in an ad hoc fashion. The aim of this paper is to initiate the development of a systematic analysis of the EnKF, in particular to do so for small ensemble size. The perspective is to view the method as a state estimator, and not as an algorithm which approximates the true filtering distribution. The perturbed observation version of the algorithm is studied, without and with variance inflation. Without variance inflation well-posedness of the filter is established; with variance inflation accuracy of the filter, with respect to the true signal underlying the data, is established. The algorithm is considered in discrete time, and also for a continuous time limit arising when observations are frequent and subject to large noise. The underlying dynamical model, and assumptions about it, is sufficiently general to include the Lorenz \\'63 and \\'96 models, together with the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus. The analysis is limited to the case of complete observation of the signal with additive white noise. Numerical results are presented for the Navier-Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus for both complete and partial observations of the signal with additive white noise.
An overview of drug combination analysis with isobolograms.
Tallarida, Ronald J
2006-10-01
Drugs given in combination may produce effects that are greater than or less than the effect predicted from their individual potencies. The historical basis for predicting the effect of a combination is based on the concept of dose equivalence; i.e., an equally effective dose (a) of one will add to the dose (b) of the other in the combination situation. For drugs with a constant relative potency, this leads to linear additive isoboles (a-b curves of constant effect), whereas a varying potency ratio produces nonlinear additive isoboles. Determination of the additive isobole is a necessary procedure for assessing both synergistic and antagonistic interactions of the combination. This review discusses both variable and constant relative potency situations and provides the mathematical formulas needed to distinguish these cases.
Visualizing ensembles in structural biology.
Melvin, Ryan L; Salsbury, Freddie R
2016-06-01
Displaying a single representative conformation of a biopolymer rather than an ensemble of states mistakenly conveys a static nature rather than the actual dynamic personality of biopolymers. However, there are few apparent options due to the fixed nature of print media. Here we suggest a standardized methodology for visually indicating the distribution width, standard deviation and uncertainty of ensembles of states with little loss of the visual simplicity of displaying a single representative conformation. Of particular note is that the visualization method employed clearly distinguishes between isotropic and anisotropic motion of polymer subunits. We also apply this method to ligand binding, suggesting a way to indicate the expected error in many high throughput docking programs when visualizing the structural spread of the output. We provide several examples in the context of nucleic acids and proteins with particular insights gained via this method. Such examples include investigating a therapeutic polymer of FdUMP (5-fluoro-2-deoxyuridine-5-O-monophosphate) - a topoisomerase-1 (Top1), apoptosis-inducing poison - and nucleotide-binding proteins responsible for ATP hydrolysis from Bacillus subtilis. We also discuss how these methods can be extended to any macromolecular data set with an underlying distribution, including experimental data such as NMR structures.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan
2013-01-01
on the method and precipitation index considered. The results also show that the main cause of interdependency in the ensemble is the use of the same RCMdriven by different GCMs. This study shows that the precipitation outputs from the RCMs in the ENSEMBLES project cannot be considered independent....... Daily precipitation indices from an ensemble of RCMs driven by the 40-yrECMWFRe-Analysis (ERA-40) and an ensemble of the same RCMs driven by different general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed. Two different methods are used to estimate the amount of independent information in the ensembles....... If the interdependency between RCMs is not taken into account, the uncertainty in theRCMsimulations of current regional climatemay be underestimated. This will in turn lead to an underestimation of the uncertainty in future precipitation projections. © 2013 American Meteorological Society....
Accounting for three sources of uncertainty in ensemble hydrological forecasting
Thiboult, Antoine; Anctil, François; Boucher, Marie-Amélie
2016-05-01
Seeking more accuracy and reliability, the hydrometeorological community has developed several tools to decipher the different sources of uncertainty in relevant modeling processes. Among them, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), multimodel approaches and meteorological ensemble forecasting proved to have the capability to improve upon deterministic hydrological forecast. This study aims to untangle the sources of uncertainty by studying the combination of these tools and assessing their respective contribution to the overall forecast quality. Each of these components is able to capture a certain aspect of the total uncertainty and improve the forecast at different stages in the forecasting process by using different means. Their combination outperforms any of the tools used solely. The EnKF is shown to contribute largely to the ensemble accuracy and dispersion, indicating that the initial conditions uncertainty is dominant. However, it fails to maintain the required dispersion throughout the entire forecast horizon and needs to be supported by a multimodel approach to take into account structural uncertainty. Moreover, the multimodel approach contributes to improving the general forecasting performance and prevents this performance from falling into the model selection pitfall since models differ strongly in their ability. Finally, the use of probabilistic meteorological forcing was found to contribute mostly to long lead time reliability. Particular attention needs to be paid to the combination of the tools, especially in the EnKF tuning to avoid overlapping in error deciphering.
A Hybrid RBF-SVM Ensemble Approach for Data Mining Applications
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M.Govindarajan
2014-02-01
Full Text Available One of the major developments in machine learning in the past decade is the ensemble method, which finds highly accurate classifier by combining many moderately accurate component classifiers. This paper addresses using an ensemble of classification methods for data mining applications like intrusion detection, direct marketing, and signature verification. In this research work, new hybrid classification method is proposed for heterogeneous ensemble classifiers using arcing and their performances are analyzed in terms of accuracy. A Classifier ensemble is designed using a Radial Basis Function (RBF and Support Vector Machine (SVM as base classifiers. Here, modified training sets are formed by resampling from original training set; classifiers constructed using these training sets and then combined by voting. The proposed RBF-SVM hybrid system is superior to individual approach for intrusion detection, direct marketing, and signature verification in terms of classification accuracy.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Neera Saxena
2011-07-01
Full Text Available This paper presents an ensemble of neo-cognitron neural network base classifiers to enhance the accuracy of the system, along the experimental results. The method offers lesser computational preprocessing in comparison to other ensemble techniques as it ex-preempts feature extraction process before feeding the data into base classifiers. This is achieved by the basic nature of neo-cognitron, it is a multilayer feed-forward neural network. Ensemble of such base classifiers gives class labels for each pattern that in turn is combined to give the final class label for that pattern. The purpose of this paper is not only to exemplify learning behaviour of neo-cognitron as base classifiers, but also to purport better fashion to combine neural network based ensemble classifiers.
Performance comparison of meso-scale ensemble wave forecasting systems for Mediterranean sea states
Pezzutto, Paolo; Saulter, Andrew; Cavaleri, Luigi; Bunney, Christopher; Marcucci, Francesca; Torrisi, Lucio; Sebastianelli, Stefano
2016-08-01
This paper compares the performance of two wind and wave short range ensemble forecast systems for the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, it describes a six month verification experiment carried out by the U.K. Met Office and Italian Air Force Meteorological Service, based on their respective systems: the Met Office Global-Regional Ensemble Prediction System and the Nettuno Ensemble Prediction System. The latter is the ensemble version of the operational Nettuno forecast system. Attention is focused on the differences between the two implementations (e.g. grid resolution and initial ensemble members sampling) and their effects on the prediction skill. The cross-verification of the two ensemble systems shows that from a macroscopic point of view the differences cancel out, suggesting similar skill. More in-depth analysis indicates that the Nettuno wave forecast is better resolved but, on average, slightly less reliable than the Met Office product. Assessment of the added value of the ensemble techniques at short range in comparison with the deterministic forecast from Nettuno, reveals that adopting the ensemble approach has small, but substantive, advantages.
Gosink, Luke; Bensema, Kevin; Pulsipher, Trenton; Obermaier, Harald; Henry, Michael; Childs, Hank; Joy, Kenneth I
2013-12-01
Numerical ensemble forecasting is a powerful tool that drives many risk analysis efforts and decision making tasks. These ensembles are composed of individual simulations that each uniquely model a possible outcome for a common event of interest: e.g., the direction and force of a hurricane, or the path of travel and mortality rate of a pandemic. This paper presents a new visual strategy to help quantify and characterize a numerical ensemble's predictive uncertainty: i.e., the ability for ensemble constituents to accurately and consistently predict an event of interest based on ground truth observations. Our strategy employs a Bayesian framework to first construct a statistical aggregate from the ensemble. We extend the information obtained from the aggregate with a visualization strategy that characterizes predictive uncertainty at two levels: at a global level, which assesses the ensemble as a whole, as well as a local level, which examines each of the ensemble's constituents. Through this approach, modelers are able to better assess the predictive strengths and weaknesses of the ensemble as a whole, as well as individual models. We apply our method to two datasets to demonstrate its broad applicability.
On serial observation processing in localized ensemble Kalman filters
Nerger, Lars
2015-01-01
Ensemble square root filters can either assimilate all observations that are available at a given time at once, or assimilate the observations in batches or one at a time. For large-scale models, the filters are typically applied with a localized analysis step. This study demonstrates that the interaction of serial observation processing and localization can destabilize the analysis process and examines under which conditions the instability becomes significant. The instabil...
EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms
Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni
2014-04-26
Motivation: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are considered the most frequently occurring DNA sequence variations. Several computational methods have been proposed for the classification of missense SNPs to neutral and disease associated. However, existing computational approaches fail to select relevant features by choosing them arbitrarily without sufficient documentation. Moreover, they are limited to the problem ofmissing values, imbalance between the learning datasets and most of them do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel evolutionary embedded algorithm to locate close to optimal Support Vector Regression models. In its second step, these models are combined to extract a universal predictor, which is less prone to overfitting issues, systematizes the rebalancing of the learning sets and uses an internal approach for solving the missing values problem without loss of information. Confidence scores support all the predictions and the model becomes tunable by modifying the classification thresholds. An extensive study was performed for collecting the most relevant features for the problem of classifying SNPs, and a superset of 88 features was constructed. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms well-known algorithms in terms of classification performance in the examined datasets. Finally, the proposed algorithmic framework was able to uncover the significant role of certain features such as the solvent accessibility feature, and the top-scored predictions were further validated by linking them with disease phenotypes. © The Author 2014.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. Crestani
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Estimating the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity K in natural aquifers is important for predicting the transport of dissolved compounds. Especially in the nonreactive case, the plume evolution is mainly controlled by the heterogeneity of K. At the local scale, the spatial distribution of K can be inferred by combining the Lagrangian formulation of the transport with a Kalman-filter-based technique and assimilating a sequence of time-lapse concentration C measurements, which, for example, can be evaluated on site through the application of a geophysical method. The objective of this work is to compare the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and the ensemble smoother (ES capabilities to retrieve the hydraulic conductivity spatial distribution in a groundwater flow and transport modeling framework. The application refers to a two-dimensional synthetic aquifer in which a tracer test is simulated. Moreover, since Kalman-filter-based methods are optimal only if each of the involved variables fit to a Gaussian probability density function (pdf and since this condition may not be met by some of the flow and transport state variables, issues related to the non-Gaussianity of the variables are analyzed and different transformation of the pdfs are considered in order to evaluate their influence on the performance of the methods. The results show that the EnKF reproduces with good accuracy the hydraulic conductivity field, outperforming the ES regardless of the pdf of the concentrations.
Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone
Mallet, Vivien; Sportisse, Bruno
2006-01-01
International audience; The potential of ensemble techniques to improve ozone forecasts is investigated. Ensembles with up to 48 members (models) are generated using the modeling system Polyphemus. Members differ in their physical parameterizations, their numerical approximations, and their input data. Each model is evaluated during 4 months (summer 2001) over Europe with hundreds of stations from three ozone-monitoring networks. We found that several linear combinations of models have the po...
Contribution Analysis of BDS/GPS Combined Orbit Determination
Zhang, Qin
2016-07-01
BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) does not have the ability of global navigation and positioning currently. The whole tracking observation of satellite orbit and the geometry of reference station are not perfect. These situations influence the accuracy of satellite orbit determination. Based on the theory and method of dynamic orbit determination, the analytical contribution of multi-GNSS combined orbit determination to the solution precision of parameters was derived. And using the measured data, the statistical contribution of BDS/GPS combined orbit determination to the solution precision of orbit and clock error was analyzed. The results show that the contribution of combined orbit determination to the solution precision of the common parameters between different systems was significant. The solution precisions of the orbit and clock error were significantly improved except GEO satellites. The statistical contribution of BDS/GPS combined orbit determination to the precision of BDS satellite orbit, the RMS of BDS satellite clock error and the RMS of receiver clock error were 36.21%, 26.88% and 20.88% respectively. Especially, the contribution to the clock error of receivers which were in the area with few visible satellites was particularly significant. And the statistical contribution was 45.95%.
Repeater Analysis for Combining Information from Different Assessments
Haberman, Shelby; Yao, Lili
2015-01-01
Admission decisions frequently rely on multiple assessments. As a consequence, it is important to explore rational approaches to combine the information from different educational tests. For example, U.S. graduate schools usually receive both TOEFL iBT® scores and GRE® General scores of foreign applicants for admission; however, little guidance…
Ensemble prediction experiments using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2009-01-01
Two methods for initialization of ensemble forecasts are compared, namely, singular vector (SV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The comparison is done for forecast lengths of up to 10 days with a three-level quasi-geostrophic (QG) atmospheric model in a perfect model scenario. Ten cases are randomly selected from 1982/1983 winter to 1993/1994 winter (from December to the following February). Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is adopted as a tool to measure the quality of the predicted ensembles on the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height. The results show that the forecast quality of ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP is higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range, based on the occurrence of weather re-gime transitions in Northern Hemisphere after about four days. Besides, the reliability of ensemble forecasts is evaluated by the Rank Histograms. The above conclusions confirm and extend those reached earlier by the authors, which stated that the introduction of CNOP improves the forecast skill under the condition that the analysis error belongs to a kind of fast-growing error by using a barotropic QG model.
Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method
Wang, Tong; Le Maître, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.
2016-08-01
An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.
Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method
Wang, Tong; Le Maître, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.
2016-10-01
An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.
Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method
Wang, Tong
2016-08-20
An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.
Ensemble prediction experiments using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
JIANG ZhiNa; MU Mu; WANG DongHai
2009-01-01
Two methods for initialization of ensemble forecasts are compared, namely, singular vector (SV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The comparison is done for forecast lengths of up to 10 days with a three-level quasi-geostrophic (QG) atmospheric model in a perfect model scenario. Ten cases are randomly selected from 1982/1983 winter to 1993/1994 winter (from 12 to the following February). Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is adopted as a tool to measure the quality of the predicted ensembles on the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height. The results show that the forecast quality of ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP is higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range, based on the occurrence of weather re-gime transitions in Northern Hemisphere after about four days. Besides, the reliability of ensemble forecasts is evaluated by the Rank Histograms. The above conclusions confirm .and extend those reached earlier by the authors, which stated that the introduction of CNOP improves the forecast skill under the condition that the analysis error belongs to a kind of fast-growing error by using a barotropic QG model.
Perception of ensemble statistics requires attention.
Jackson-Nielsen, Molly; Cohen, Michael A; Pitts, Michael A
2017-02-01
To overcome inherent limitations in perceptual bandwidth, many aspects of the visual world are represented as summary statistics (e.g., average size, orientation, or density of objects). Here, we investigated the relationship between summary (ensemble) statistics and visual attention. Recently, it was claimed that one ensemble statistic in particular, color diversity, can be perceived without focal attention. However, a broader debate exists over the attentional requirements of conscious perception, and it is possible that some form of attention is necessary for ensemble perception. To test this idea, we employed a modified inattentional blindness paradigm and found that multiple types of summary statistics (color and size) often go unnoticed without attention. In addition, we found attentional costs in dual-task situations, further implicating a role for attention in statistical perception. Overall, we conclude that while visual ensembles may be processed efficiently, some amount of attention is necessary for conscious perception of ensemble statistics.
Combining Formal Logic and Machine Learning for Sentiment Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Niklas Christoffer; Villadsen, Jørgen
2014-01-01
This paper presents a formal logical method for deep structural analysis of the syntactical properties of texts using machine learning techniques for efficient syntactical tagging. To evaluate the method it is used for entity level sentiment analysis as an alternative to pure machine learning...
Kaji, Takahiro; Ito, Syoji; Iwai, Shigenori; Miyasaka, Hiroshi
2009-10-22
Single-molecule and ensemble time-resolved fluorescence measurements were applied for the investigation of the conformational dynamics of single-stranded DNA, ssDNA, connected with a fluorescein dye by a C6 linker, where the motions both of DNA and the C6 linker affect the geometry of the system. From the ensemble measurement of the fluorescence quenching via photoinduced electron transfer with a guanine base in the DNA sequence, three main conformations were found in aqueous solution: a conformation unaffected by the guanine base in the excited state lifetime of fluorescein, a conformation in which the fluorescence is dynamically quenched in the excited-state lifetime, and a conformation leading to rapid quenching via nonfluorescent complex. The analysis by using the parameters acquired from the ensemble measurements for interphoton time distribution histograms and FCS autocorrelations by the single-molecule measurement revealed that interconversion in these three conformations took place with two characteristic time constants of several hundreds of nanoseconds and tens of microseconds. The advantage of the combination use of the ensemble measurements with the single-molecule detections for rather complex dynamic motions is discussed by integrating the experimental results with those obtained by molecular dynamics simulation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Rautenhaus
2015-07-01
Full Text Available We present "Met.3D", a new open-source tool for the interactive three-dimensional (3-D visualization of numerical ensemble weather predictions. The tool has been developed to support weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns; however, it is applicable to further forecasting, research and teaching activities. Our work approaches challenging topics related to the visual analysis of numerical atmospheric model output – 3-D visualization, ensemble visualization and how both can be used in a meaningful way suited to weather forecasting. Met.3D builds a bridge from proven 2-D visualization methods commonly used in meteorology to 3-D visualization by combining both visualization types in a 3-D context. We address the issue of spatial perception in the 3-D view and present approaches to using the ensemble to allow the user to assess forecast uncertainty. Interactivity is key to our approach. Met.3D uses modern graphics technology to achieve interactive visualization on standard consumer hardware. The tool supports forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF and can operate directly on ECMWF hybrid sigma-pressure level grids. We describe the employed visualization algorithms, and analyse the impact of the ECMWF grid topology on computing 3-D ensemble statistical quantities. Our techniques are demonstrated with examples from the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment campaign.
Thermoeconomic Analysis of Advanced Solar-Fossil Combined Power Plants
Yassine Allani; Klaus Ziegler; Daniel Favrat; Malick Kane
2000-01-01
Hybrid solar thermal power plants (with parabolic trough type of solar collectors) featuring gas burners and Rankine steam cycles have been successfully demonstrated by California's Solar Electric Generating System (SEGS). This system has been proven to be one of the most efficient and economical schemes to convert solar energy into electricity. Recent technological progress opens interesting prospects for advanced cycle concepts: a) the ISCCS (Integrated Solar Combined Cycle System)...
Manufacturability analysis to combine additive and subtractive processes
Kerbrat, Olivier; MOGNOL, Pascal; Hascoët, Jean-Yves
2010-01-01
International audience; Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to estimate manufacturing complexity for both machining and layered manufacturing. The goal is to take into account manufacturing constraints at design stage in order to realize tools (dies and molds) by a combination of a subtractive process (high-speed machining) and an additive process (selective laser sintering). Design/methodology/approach - Manufacturability indexes are defined and calculated from th...
Inserting Stress Analysis of Combined Hexagonal Aluminum Honeycombs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiangcheng Li
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Two kinds of hexagonal aluminum honeycombs are tested to study their out-of-plane crushing behavior. In the tests, honeycomb samples, including single hexagonal aluminum honeycomb (SHAH samples and two stack-up combined hexagonal aluminum honeycombs (CHAH samples, are compressed at a fixed quasistatic loading rate. The results show that the inserting process of CHAH can erase the initial peak stress that occurred in SHAH. Meanwhile, energy-absorbing property of combined honeycomb samples is more beneficial than the one of single honeycomb sample with the same thickness if the two types of honeycomb samples are completely crushed. Then, the applicability of the existing theoretical model for single hexagonal honeycomb is discussed, and an area equivalent method is proposed to calculate the crushing stress for nearly regular hexagonal honeycombs. Furthermore, a semiempirical formula is proposed to calculate the inserting plateau stress of two stack-up CHAH, in which structural parameters and mechanics properties of base material are concerned. The results show that the predicted stresses of three kinds of two stack-up combined honeycombs are in good agreement with the experimental data. Based on this study, stress-displacement curve of aluminum honeycombs can be designed in detail, which is very beneficial to optimize the energy-absorbing structures in engineering fields.
Kaltenboeck, Rudolf; Kerschbaum, Markus; Hennermann, Karin; Mayer, Stefan
2013-04-01
Nowcasting of precipitation events, especially thunderstorm events or winter storms, has high impact on flight safety and efficiency for air traffic management. Future strategic planning by air traffic control will result in circumnavigation of potential hazardous areas, reduction of load around efficiency hot spots by offering alternatives, increase of handling capacity, anticipation of avoidance manoeuvres and increase of awareness before dangerous areas are entered by aircraft. To facilitate this rapid update forecasts of location, intensity, size, movement and development of local storms are necessary. Weather radar data deliver precipitation analysis of high temporal and spatial resolution close to real time by using clever scanning strategies. These data are the basis to generate rapid update forecasts in a time frame up to 2 hours and more for applications in aviation meteorological service provision, such as optimizing safety and economic impact in the context of sub-scale phenomena. On the basis of tracking radar echoes by correlation the movement vectors of successive weather radar images are calculated. For every new successive radar image a set of ensemble precipitation fields is collected by using different parameter sets like pattern match size, different time steps, filter methods and an implementation of history of tracking vectors and plausibility checks. This method considers the uncertainty in rain field displacement and different scales in time and space. By validating manually a set of case studies, the best verification method and skill score is defined and implemented into an online-verification scheme which calculates the optimized forecasts for different time steps and different areas by using different extrapolation ensemble members. To get information about the quality and reliability of the extrapolation process additional information of data quality (e.g. shielding in Alpine areas) is extrapolated and combined with an extrapolation
Probability Maps for the Visualization of Assimilation Ensemble Flow Data
Hollt, Thomas
2015-05-25
Ocean forecasts nowadays are created by running ensemble simulations in combination with data assimilation techniques. Most of these techniques resample the ensemble members after each assimilation cycle. This means that in a time series, after resampling, every member can follow up on any of the members before resampling. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially with the number of assimilation cycles. In general a single possible path is not of interest but only the probabilities that any point in space might be reached by a particle at some point in time. In this work we present an approach using probability-weighted piecewise particle trajectories to allow such a mapping interactively, instead of tracing quadrillions of individual particles. We achieve interactive rates by binning the domain and splitting up the tracing process into the individual assimilation cycles, so that particles that fall into the same bin after a cycle can be treated as a single particle with a larger probability as input for the next time step. As a result we loose the possibility to track individual particles, but can create probability maps for any desired seed at interactive rates.
Statistical properties of daily ensemble variables in the Chinese stock markets
Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing
2007-09-01
We study dynamical behavior of the Chinese stock markets by investigating the statistical properties of daily ensemble return and variety defined, respectively, as the mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble daily price return of a portfolio of stocks traded in China's stock markets on a given day. The distribution of the daily ensemble return has an exponential form in the center and power-law tails, while the variety distribution is lognormal in the bulk followed by a power-law tail for large variety. Based on detrended fluctuation analysis, R/S analysis and modified R/S analysis, we find evidence of long memory in the ensemble return and strong evidence of long memory in the evolution of variety.
Statistical properties of daily ensemble variables in the Chinese stock markets
Gu, G F; Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing
2006-01-01
We study dynamical behavior of the Chinese stock markets by investigating the statistical properties of daily ensemble returns and varieties defined respectively as the mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble daily price returns of a portfolio of stocks traded in China's stock markets on a given day. The distribution of the daily ensemble returns has an exponential form in the center and power-law tails, while the variety distribution is log-Gaussian in the bulk followed by a power-law tail for large varieties. Based on detrended fluctuation analysis, R/S analysis and modified R/S analysis, we find evidence of long memory in the ensemble returns and strong evidence of long memory in the evolution of variety.
Ensemble polarimetric SAR image classification based on contextual sparse representation
Zhang, Lamei; Wang, Xiao; Zou, Bin; Qiao, Zhijun
2016-05-01
Polarimetric SAR image interpretation has become one of the most interesting topics, in which the construction of the reasonable and effective technique of image classification is of key importance. Sparse representation represents the data using the most succinct sparse atoms of the over-complete dictionary and the advantages of sparse representation also have been confirmed in the field of PolSAR classification. However, it is not perfect, like the ordinary classifier, at different aspects. So ensemble learning is introduced to improve the issue, which makes a plurality of different learners training and obtained the integrated results by combining the individual learner to get more accurate and ideal learning results. Therefore, this paper presents a polarimetric SAR image classification method based on the ensemble learning of sparse representation to achieve the optimal classification.
ENSO feedbacks and their relationships with the mean state in a flux adjusted ensemble
Ferrett, Samantha; Collins, Matthew
2016-11-01
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is governed by a combination of amplifying and damping ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in the equatorial Pacific. Here we quantify these feedbacks in a flux adjusted HadCM3 perturbed physics ensemble under present day conditions and a future emissions scenario using the Bjerknes Stability Index (BJ index). Relationships between feedbacks and both the present day biases and responses under climate change of the mean equatorial Pacific climate are investigated. Despite minimised mean sea surface temperature biases through flux adjustment, the important dominant ENSO feedbacks still show biases with respect to observed feedbacks and inter-ensemble diversity. The dominant positive thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks are found to be weaker in ensemble members with stronger mean zonal advection. This is due to a weaker sensitivity of the thermocline slope and zonal surface ocean currents in the east Pacific to surface wind stress anomalies. A drier west Pacific is also found to be linked to weakened shortwave and latent heat flux damping, suggesting a link between ENSO characteristics and the hydrological cycle. In contrast to previous studies using the BJ index that find positive relationships between the index and ENSO amplitude, here they are weakly or negatively correlated, both for present day conditions and for projected differences. This is caused by strong thermodynamic damping which dominates over positive feedbacks, which alone approximate ENSO amplitude well. While the BJ index proves useful for individual linear feedback analysis, we urge caution in using the total linear BJ index alone to assess the reasons for ENSO amplitude biases and its future change in models.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rabasse, J.F.; Du, S.; Penillault, G.; Tassan-Got, L.; Givort, M. [Services Techniques, Inst. de Physique Nucleaire, Paris-11 Univ., 91 - Orsay (France)
1999-11-01
For several years in connection with the migration towards UNIX system, software tools have been developed in the laboratory. They allow the nuclear physicist community to achieve the complete analysis of experimental data. They comply with the requirements imposed by the development of multi-detectors. A special attention has been devoted to ergonomic aspects and configuration possibilities. (authors) 1 fig.
Ensemble learned vaccination uptake prediction using web search queries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Niels Dalum; Lioma, Christina; Mølbak, Kåre
2016-01-01
We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official...... vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake eff?ectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields comparative performance. To our knowledge, this is the ?first study to predict vaccination uptake...
Ensemble learned vaccination uptake prediction using web search queries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Niels Dalum; Lioma, Christina; Mølbak, Kåre
2016-01-01
We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official...... vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake eff?ectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields comparative performance. To our knowledge, this is the ?first study to predict vaccination uptake...... using web data (with and without clinical data)....
ANALYSIS OF COMBINED POLYSURFACES TO MESH SURFACES MATCHING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marek WYLEŻOŁ
2014-06-01
Full Text Available This article applies to an example of the process of quantitatively evaluate the fit of combined polysurface (NURBS class to a surface mesh. The fitting process of the polysurface and the evaluation of obtained results have been realized in the environment of the CATIA v5 system. Obtained quantitative evaluation are shown graphically in the form of three-dimensional graphs and histograms. As the base surface mesh was used a pelvic bone stl model (the model was created by digitizing didactic physical model.
Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging
Luo, Xiaodong; 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17130
2012-01-01
Covariance inflation and localization are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/o...
The limit shape problem for ensembles of Young diagrams
Hora, Akihito
2016-01-01
This book treats ensembles of Young diagrams originating from group-theoretical contexts and investigates what statistical properties are observed there in a large-scale limit. The focus is mainly on analyzing the interesting phenomenon that specific curves appear in the appropriate scaling limit for the profiles of Young diagrams. This problem is regarded as an important origin of recent vital studies on harmonic analysis of huge symmetry structures. As mathematics, an asymptotic theory of representations is developed of the symmetric groups of degree n as n goes to infinity. The framework of rigorous limit theorems (especially the law of large numbers) in probability theory is employed as well as combinatorial analysis of group characters of symmetric groups and applications of Voiculescu's free probability. The central destination here is a clear description of the asymptotic behavior of rescaled profiles of Young diagrams in the Plancherel ensemble from both static and dynamic points of view.
Preliminary Assessment of Tecplot Chorus for Analyzing Ensemble of CTH Simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Agelastos, Anthony Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stevenson, Joel O. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Attaway, Stephen W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peterson, David
2015-04-01
The exploration of large parameter spaces in search of problem solution and uncertainty quantifcation produces very large ensembles of data. Processing ensemble data will continue to require more resources as simulation complexity and HPC platform throughput increase. More tools are needed to help provide rapid insight into these data sets to decrease manual processing time by the analyst and to increase knowledge the data can provide. One such tool is Tecplot Chorus, whose strengths are visualizing ensemble metadata and linked images. This report contains the analysis and conclusions from evaluating Tecplot Chorus with an example problem that is relevant to Sandia National Laboratories.
Ensemble prediction of floods – catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. Reszler
2007-07-01
Full Text Available Quantifying the uncertainty of flood forecasts by ensemble methods is becoming increasingly important for operational purposes. The aim of this paper is to examine how the ensemble distribution of precipitation forecasts propagates in the catchment system, and to interpret the flood forecast probabilities relative to the forecast errors. We use the 622 km2 Kamp catchment in Austria as an example where a comprehensive data set, including a 500 yr and a 1000 yr flood, is available. A spatially-distributed continuous rainfall-runoff model is used along with ensemble and deterministic precipitation forecasts that combine rain gauge data, radar data and the forecast fields of the ALADIN and ECMWF numerical weather prediction models. The analyses indicate that, for long lead times, the variability of the precipitation ensemble is amplified as it propagates through the catchment system as a result of non-linear catchment response. In contrast, for lead times shorter than the catchment lag time (e.g. 12 h and less, the variability of the precipitation ensemble is decreased as the forecasts are mainly controlled by observed upstream runoff and observed precipitation. Assuming that all ensemble members are equally likely, the statistical analyses for five flood events at the Kamp showed that the ensemble spread of the flood forecasts is always narrower than the distribution of the forecast errors. This is because the ensemble forecasts focus on the uncertainty in forecast precipitation as the dominant source of uncertainty, and other sources of uncertainty are not accounted for. However, a number of analyses, including Relative Operating Characteristic diagrams, indicate that the ensemble spread is a useful indicator to assess potential forecast errors for lead times larger than 12 h.
MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging
Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.
2016-01-01
In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.
Work producing reservoirs: Stochastic thermodynamics with generalized Gibbs ensembles
Horowitz, Jordan M.; Esposito, Massimiliano
2016-08-01
We develop a consistent stochastic thermodynamics for environments composed of thermodynamic reservoirs in an external conservative force field, that is, environments described by the generalized or Gibbs canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that small systems weakly coupled to such reservoirs exchange both heat and work by verifying a local detailed balance relation for the induced stochastic dynamics. Based on this analysis, we help to rationalize the observation that nonthermal reservoirs can increase the efficiency of thermodynamic heat engines.
Ensemble Trajectory Simulation of Large Jellyfish in the Yellow and Bohai Sea
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wu Lingjuan
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Combining Lagrange particle tracking method with the ensemble forecasting concept, one ensemble trajectory model is developed for large jellyfish with vertical movement of jellyfish taken into account in the Yellow and Bohai Sea. Besides, this ensemble model can give quick simulation of drifting trajectories and potential affected range. The comparison between observation and simulation of jellyfish trajectories in the coastal waters of Qingdao and Qinhuangdao as the typical place of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea has been made. And the results indicate that the ensemble trajectory model is more reliable than single one, and could provide more useful information for emergency response of jellyfish bloom, especially under the circumstance that autonomic (vertical movement of of jellyfish and its mechanism is not clear.
Improved validation of IDP ensembles by one-bond Cα–Hα scalar couplings
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gapsys, Vytautas [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Computational Biomolecular Dynamics Group (Germany); Narayanan, Raghavendran L.; Xiang, ShengQi [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Department for NMR-Based Structural Biology (Germany); Groot, Bert L. de [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Computational Biomolecular Dynamics Group (Germany); Zweckstetter, Markus, E-mail: markus.zweckstetter@dzne.de [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Department for NMR-Based Structural Biology (Germany)
2015-11-15
Intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) are best described by ensembles of conformations and a variety of approaches have been developed to determine IDP ensembles. Because of the large number of conformations, however, cross-validation of the determined ensembles by independent experimental data is crucial. The {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} coupling constant is particularly suited for cross-validation, because it has a large magnitude and mostly depends on the often less accessible dihedral angle ψ. Here, we reinvestigated the connection between {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} values and protein backbone dihedral angles. We show that accurate amino-acid specific random coil values of the {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} coupling constant, in combination with a reparameterized empirical Karplus-type equation, allow for reliable cross-validation of molecular ensembles of IDPs.
CFD analysis of ejector in a combined ejector cooling system
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rusly, E.; Aye, Lu [International Technologies Centre (IDTC), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic. 3010 (Australia); Charters, W.W.S.; Ooi, A. [Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic. 3010 (Australia)
2005-11-01
One-dimensional ejector analyses often use coefficients derived from experimental data for a set of operating conditions with limited functionality. In this study, several ejector designs were modelled using finite volume CFD techniques to resolve the flow dynamics in the ejectors. The CFD results were validated with available experimental data. Flow field analyses and predictions of ejector performance outside the experimental range were also carried out. During validation, data from CFD predicted the entrainment ratios with greater accuracy on definite area ratios, although no shock was recorded in the ejector. Predictions outside the experimental range-at operating conditions in a combined ejector-vapour compression system-and flow conditions resulting from ejector geometry variations are discussed. It is found that the maximum entrainment ratio happens in the ejector just before a shock occurs and that the position of the nozzle is an important ejector design parameter. (author)
Combining microsimulation and spatial interaction models for retail location analysis
Nakaya, Tomoki; Fotheringham, A. Stewart; Hanaoka, Kazumasa; Clarke, Graham; Ballas, Dimitris; Yano, Keiji
2007-12-01
Although the disaggregation of consumers is crucial in understanding the fragmented markets that are dominant in many developed countries, it is not always straightforward to carry out such disaggregation within conventional retail modelling frameworks due to the limitations of data. In particular, consumer grouping based on sampled data is not assured to link with the other statistics that are vital in estimating sampling biases and missing variables in the sampling survey. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a useful combination of spatial interaction modelling and microsimulation approaches for the reliable estimation of retail interactions based on a sample survey of consumer behaviour being linked with other areal statistics. We demonstrate this approach by building an operational retail interaction model to estimate expenditure flows from households to retail stores in a local city in Japan, Kusatsu City.
An estimation of Erinaceidae phylogeny: a combined analysis approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kai He
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Erinaceidae is a family of small mammals that include the spiny hedgehogs (Erinaceinae and the silky-furred moonrats and gymnures (Galericinae. These animals are widely distributed across Eurasia and Africa, from the tundra to the tropics and the deserts to damp forests. The importance of these animals lies in the fact that they are the oldest known living placental mammals, which are well represented in the fossil record, a rarity fact given their size and vulnerability to destruction during fossilization. Although the Family has been well studied, their phylogenetic relationships remain controversial. To test previous phylogenetic hypotheses, we combined molecular and morphological data sets, including representatives of all the genera. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We included in the analyses 3,218 bp mitochondrial genes, one hundred and thirty-five morphological characters, twenty-two extant erinaceid taxa, and five outgroup taxa. Phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed using both partitioned and combined data sets. As in previous analyses, our results strongly support the monophyly of both subfamilies (Galericinae and Erinaceinae, the Hylomys group (to include Neotetracus and Neohylomys, and a sister-relationship of Atelerix and Erinaceus. As well, we verified that the extremely long branch lengths within the Galericinae are consistent with their fossil records. Not surprisingly, we found significant incongruence between the phylogenetic signals of the genes and the morphological characters, specifically in the case of Hylomys parvus, Mesechinus, and relationships between Hemiechinus and Paraechinus. CONCLUSIONS: Although we discovered new clues to understanding the evolutionary relationships within the Erinaceidae, our results nonetheless, strongly suggest that more robust analyses employing more complete taxon sampling (to include fossils and multiple unlinked genes would greatly enhance our understanding of the
Mass Conservation and Positivity Preservation with Ensemble-type Kalman Filter Algorithms
Janjic, Tijana; McLaughlin, Dennis B.; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin
2013-01-01
Maintaining conservative physical laws numerically has long been recognized as being important in the development of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In the broader context of data assimilation, concerted efforts to maintain conservation laws numerically and to understand the significance of doing so have begun only recently. In order to enforce physically based conservation laws of total mass and positivity in the ensemble Kalman filter, we incorporate constraints to ensure that the filter ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. We show that the analysis steps of ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) algorithm and ensemble Kalman filter algorithm (EnKF) can conserve the mass integral, but do not preserve positivity. Further, if localization is applied or if negative values are simply set to zero, then the total mass is not conserved either. In order to ensure mass conservation, a projection matrix that corrects for localization effects is constructed. In order to maintain both mass conservation and positivity preservation through the analysis step, we construct a data assimilation algorithms based on quadratic programming and ensemble Kalman filtering. Mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate constraints. Some simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. The results show clear improvements in both analyses and forecasts, particularly in the presence of localized features. Behavior of the algorithm is also tested in presence of model error.
Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble
Wang, Xian-Zhi
2016-02-01
Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula.
4DVAR by ensemble Kalman smoother
Mandel, Jan; Gratton, Serge
2013-01-01
We propose to use the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) as linear least squares solver in the Gauss-Newton method for the large nonlinear least squares in incremental 4DVAR. The ensemble approach is naturally parallel over the ensemble members and no tangent or adjoint operators are needed. Further, adding a regularization term results in replacing the Gauss-Newton method, which may diverge, by^M the Levenberg-Marquardt method, which is known to be convergent. The regularization is implemented efficiently as an additional observation in the EnKS.
A Fuzzy Integral Ensemble Method in Visual P300 Brain-Computer Interface
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francesco Cavrini
2016-01-01
Full Text Available We evaluate the possibility of application of combination of classifiers using fuzzy measures and integrals to Brain-Computer Interface (BCI based on electroencephalography. In particular, we present an ensemble method that can be applied to a variety of systems and evaluate it in the context of a visual P300-based BCI. Offline analysis of data relative to 5 subjects lets us argue that the proposed classification strategy is suitable for BCI. Indeed, the achieved performance is significantly greater than the average of the base classifiers and, broadly speaking, similar to that of the best one. Thus the proposed methodology allows realizing systems that can be used by different subjects without the need for a preliminary configuration phase in which the best classifier for each user has to be identified. Moreover, the ensemble is often capable of detecting uncertain situations and turning them from misclassifications into abstentions, thereby improving the level of safety in BCI for environmental or device control.
μ-PIV measurements of the ensemble flow fields surrounding a migrating semi-infinite bubble.
Yamaguchi, Eiichiro; Smith, Bradford J; Gaver, Donald P
2009-08-01
Microscale particle image velocimetry (μ-PIV) measurements of ensemble flow fields surrounding a steadily-migrating semi-infinite bubble through the novel adaptation of a computer controlled linear motor flow control system. The system was programmed to generate a square wave velocity input in order to produce accurate constant bubble propagation repeatedly and effectively through a fused glass capillary tube. We present a novel technique for re-positioning of the coordinate axis to the bubble tip frame of reference in each instantaneous field through the analysis of the sudden change of standard deviation of centerline velocity profiles across the bubble interface. Ensemble averages were then computed in this bubble tip frame of reference. Combined fluid systems of water/air, glycerol/air, and glycerol/Si-oil were used to investigate flows comparable to computational simulations described in Smith and Gaver (2008) and to past experimental observations of interfacial shape. Fluorescent particle images were also analyzed to measure the residual film thickness trailing behind the bubble. The flow fields and film thickness agree very well with the computational simulations as well as existing experimental and analytical results. Particle accumulation and migration associated with the flow patterns near the bubble tip after long experimental durations are discussed as potential sources of error in the experimental method.
Classification of Subcellular Phenotype Images by Decision Templates for Classifier Ensemble
Zhang, Bailing
2010-01-01
Subcellular localization is a key functional characteristic of proteins. An automatic, reliable and efficient prediction system for protein subcellular localization is needed for large-scale genome analysis. The automated cell phenotype image classification problem is an interesting "bioimage informatics" application. It can be used for establishing knowledge of the spatial distribution of proteins within living cells and permits to screen systems for drug discovery or for early diagnosis of a disease. In this paper, three well-known texture feature extraction methods including local binary patterns (LBP), Gabor filtering and Gray Level Coocurrence Matrix (GLCM) have been applied to cell phenotype images and the multiple layer perceptron (MLP) method has been used to classify cell phenotype image. After classification of the extracted features, decision-templates ensemble algorithm (DT) is used to combine base classifiers built on the different feature sets. Different texture feature sets can provide sufficient diversity among base classifiers, which is known as a necessary condition for improvement in ensemble performance. For the HeLa cells, the human classification error rate on this task is of 17% as reported in previous publications. We obtain with our method an error rate of 4.8%.
Non-intrusive Ensemble Kalman filtering for large scale geophysical models
Amour, Idrissa; Kauranne, Tuomo
2016-04-01
Advanced data assimilation techniques, such as variational assimilation methods, present often challenging implementation issues for large-scale models, both because of computational complexity and because of complexity of implementation. We present a non-intrusive wrapper library that addresses this problem by isolating the direct model and the linear algebra employed in data assimilation from each other completely. In this approach we have adopted a hybrid Variational Ensemble Kalman filter that combines Ensemble propagation with a 3DVAR analysis stage. The inverse problem of state and covariance propagation from prior to posterior estimates is thereby turned into a time-independent problem. This feature allows the linear algebra and minimization steps required in the variational step to be conducted outside the direct model and no tangent linear or adjoint codes are required. Communication between the model and the assimilation module is conducted exclusively via standard input and output files of the model. This non-intrusive approach is tested with the comprehensive 3D lake and shallow sea model COHERENS that is used to forecast and assimilate turbidity in lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi in Finland, using both sparse satellite images and continuous real-time point measurements as observations.
Combined Aero and Underhood Thermal Analysis for Heavy Duty Trucks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vegendla, Prasad [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sofu, Tanju [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Saha, Rohit [Cummins Inc., Columbus, IN (United States); Madurai Kumar, Mahesh [Cummins Inc., Columbus, IN (United States); Hwang, L. K [Cummins Inc., Columbus, IN (United States)
2017-01-31
Aerodynamic analysis of the medium-duty delivery truck was performed to achieve vehicle design optimization. Three dimensional CFD simulations were carried out for several improved designs, with a detailed external component analysis of wheel covers, side skirts, roof fairings, and rounded trailer corners. The overall averaged aerodynamics drag reduction through the design modifications were shown up to 22.3% through aerodynamic considerations alone, which is equivalent to 11.16% fuel savings. The main identified fuel efficiencies were based on second generation devices, including wheel covers, side skirts, roof fairings, and rounded trailer corners. The important findings of this work were; (i) the optimum curvature radius of the rounded trailer edges found to be 125 mm, with an arc length of 196.3 mm, (ii) aerodynamic drag reduction increases with dropping clearance of side skirts between wheels and ground, and (iii) aerodynamic drag reduction increases with an extension of front bumper towards the ground.
Combined Dunham Analysis of Rotational and Eletronic Transitions of CH^+
Yu, Shanshan; Drouin, Brian; Pearson, John; Amano, Takayoshi
2016-06-01
A Dunham analysis of the A^1Π-X^1Σ^+ band was carried out by Müller, and predictions of the pure rotational transition frequencies were made. More recently, in submillimeter to THz region, several rotational lines were observed for 12CH^+, 13CH^+, and CD^+. In this investigation, those newly obtained rotational lines are incorporated in the Dunham analysis. The Λ-doubling splittings in ^1Π electronic states have been expressed as (1/2)qJ(J+1) in most investigations. However, it should be noted that the e-levels of ^1Π state interact with ^1Σ^+ states, while the f-levels with ^1Σ^- states. For CH^+, the e-levels of A^1Π are pushed upward from the interaction with the ground X^1Σ^+ state. The ^1Σ^- states are not known experimentally and they, if any, should lie high over the A^1Π state. In this analysis, only the f-levels are included in the least-squares analysis by neglecting the Λ-doubling. The mass independent parameters have been obtained, and the conventional spectroscopic parameters are derived for each isotopologue. These results should be useful for determining the potential energies of this fundamental ion. H. S. P. Müller,A&A,514, L6(2010) T. Amano, Ap.J.Lett., 716, L1 (2010) T. Amano, J. Chem. Phys., 133, 244305 (2010) S. Yu et al,The 70th International Symposium on Moecular Spectroscopy, RD06(2015) Y. S. Cho and R. J. LeRoy,J. Chem. Phys.,144, 024311(2016)
Ensemble Dynamics and Bred Vectors
Balci, Nusret; Restrepo, Juan M; Sell, George R
2011-01-01
We introduce the new concept of an EBV to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in initial conditions for weather forecasting. The new algorithm, which we call the "Ensemble Bred Vector" or EBV, is based on collective dynamics in essential ways. By construction, the EBV algorithm produces one or more dominant vectors. We investigate the performance of EBV, comparing it to the BV algorithm as well as the finite-time Lyapunov Vectors. We give a theoretical justification to the observed fact that the vectors produced by BV, EBV, and the finite-time Lyapunov vectors are similar for small amplitudes. Numerical comparisons of BV and EBV for the 3-equation Lorenz model and for a forced, dissipative partial differential equation of Cahn-Hilliard type that arises in modeling the thermohaline circulation, demonstrate that the EBV yields a size-ordered description of the perturbation field, and is more robust than the BV in the higher nonlinear regime. The EBV yields insight into the fractal structure of th...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. He
2011-08-01
Full Text Available The current study proposes an integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation framework (ICEA and evaluates its viability in providing operational streamflow predictions via assimilating snow water equivalent (SWE data. This step-wise framework applies a parameter uncertainty analysis algorithm (ISURF to identify the uncertainty structure of sensitive model parameters, which is subsequently formulated into an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF to generate updated snow states for streamflow prediction. The framework is coupled to the US National Weather Service (NWS snow and rainfall-runoff models. Its applicability is demonstrated for an operational basin of a western River Forecast Center (RFC of the NWS. Performance of the framework is evaluated against existing operational baseline (RFC predictions, the stand-alone ISURF, and the stand-alone EnKF. Results indicate that the ensemble-mean prediction of ICEA considerably outperforms predictions from the other three scenarios investigated, particularly in the context of predicting high flows (top 5th percentile. The ICEA streamflow ensemble predictions capture the variability of the observed streamflow well, however the ensemble is not wide enough to consistently contain the range of streamflow observations in the study basin. Our findings indicate that the ICEA has the potential to supplement the current operational (deterministic forecasting method in terms of providing improved single-valued (e.g., ensemble mean streamflow predictions as well as meaningful ensemble predictions.
Combined analysis of fourteen nuclear genes refines the Ursidae phylogeny.
Pagès, Marie; Calvignac, Sébastien; Klein, Catherine; Paris, Mathilde; Hughes, Sandrine; Hänni, Catherine
2008-04-01
Despite numerous studies, questions remain about the evolutionary history of Ursidae and additional independent genetic markers were needed to elucidate these ambiguities. For this purpose, we sequenced ten nuclear genes for all the eight extant bear species. By combining these new sequences with those of four other recently published nuclear markers, we provide new insights into the phylogenetic relationships of the Ursidae family members. The hypothesis that the giant panda was the first species to diverge among ursids is definitively confirmed and the precise branching order within the Ursus genus is clarified for the first time. Moreover, our analyses indicate that the American and the Asiatic black bears do not cluster as sister taxa, as had been previously hypothesised. Sun and sloth bears clearly appear as the most basal ursine species but uncertainties about their exact relationships remain. Since our larger dataset did not enable us to clarify this last question, identifying rare genomic changes in bear genomes could be a promising solution for further studies.
Combined multi-criteria and cost-benefit analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld
1996-01-01
.The second section introduces the stated preference methodology used in WARP to create weight profiles for project pool sensitivity analysis. This section includes a simple example. The third section discusses how decision makers can get a priori aid to make their pair-wise comparisons based on project pool...... sensitivity. Since pair-wise comparisons contains information on the trade-off’s acceptable to the decision maker, it is possible to calculate the shadow price of the effect compared to a given price base. The final section discusses two different approaches for the building of weight profiles...
Direct Correlation of Cell Toxicity to Conformational Ensembles of Genetic Aβ Variants
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Somavarapu, Arun Kumar; Kepp, Kasper Planeta
2015-01-01
We report a systematic analysis of conformational ensembles generated from multiseed molecular dynamics simulations of all 15 known genetic variants of Aβ42. We show that experimentally determined variant toxicities are largely explained by random coil content of the amyloid ensembles (correlatio...
Lenartz, F.; Raick, C.; Soetaert, K.E.R.; Grégoire, M.
2007-01-01
The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been applied to a 1-D complex ecosystem model coupled with a hydrodynamic model of the Ligurian Sea. In order to improve the performance of the EnKF, an ensemble subsampling strategy has been used to better represent the covariance matrices and a pre-analysis st
A 4D-Ensemble-Variational System for Data Assimilation and Ensemble Initialization
Bowler, Neill; Clayton, Adam; Jardak, Mohamed; Lee, Eunjoo; Jermey, Peter; Lorenc, Andrew; Piccolo, Chiara; Pring, Stephen; Wlasak, Marek; Barker, Dale; Inverarity, Gordon; Swinbank, Richard
2016-04-01
The Met Office has been developing a four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system over the past four years. The 4DEnVar system is intended both as data assimilation system in its own right and also an improved means of initializing the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The global MOGREPS ensemble has been initialized by running an ensemble of 4DEnVars (En-4DEnVar). The scalability and maintainability of ensemble data assimilation methods make them increasingly attractive, and 4DEnVar may be adopted in the context of the Met Office's LFRic project to redevelop the technical infrastructure to enable its Unified Model (MetUM) to be run efficiently on massively parallel supercomputers. This presentation will report on the results of the 4DEnVar development project, including experiments that have been run using ensemble sizes of up to 200 members.
Combined biochemical and cytological analysis of membrane trafficking using lectins.
Morgan, Gareth W; Kail, Mark; Hollinshead, Michael; Vaux, David J
2013-10-01
We have tested the application of high-mannose-binding lectins as analytical reagents to identify N-glycans in the early secretory pathway of HeLa cells during subcellular fractionation and cytochemistry. Post-endoplasmic reticulum (ER) pre-Golgi intermediates were separated from the ER on Nycodenz-sucrose gradients, and the glycan composition of each gradient fraction was profiled using lectin blotting. The fractions containing the post-ER pre-Golgi intermediates are found to contain a subset of N-linked α-mannose glycans that bind the lectins Galanthus nivalis agglutinin (GNA), Pisum sativum agglutinin (PSA), and Lens culinaris agglutinin (LCA) but not lectins binding Golgi-modified glycans. Cytochemical analysis demonstrates that high-mannose-containing glycoproteins are predominantly localized to the ER and the early secretory pathway. Indirect immunofluorescence microscopy revealed that GNA colocalizes with the ER marker protein disulfide isomerase (PDI) and the COPI coat protein β-COP. In situ competition with concanavalin A (ConA), another high-mannose specific lectin, and subsequent GNA lectin histochemistry refined the localization of N-glyans containing nonreducing mannosyl groups, accentuating the GNA vesicular staining. Using GNA and treatments that perturb ER-Golgi transport, we demonstrate that lectins can be used to detect changes in membrane trafficking pathways histochemically. Overall, we find that conjugated plant lectins are effective tools for combinatory biochemical and cytological analysis of membrane trafficking of glycoproteins.
A new deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter with one-step-ahead smoothing for storm surge forecasting
Raboudi, Naila
2016-11-01
The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a popular data assimilation method for state-parameter estimation. Following a sequential assimilation strategy, it breaks the problem into alternating cycles of forecast and analysis steps. In the forecast step, the dynamical model is used to integrate a stochastic sample approximating the state analysis distribution (called analysis ensemble) to obtain a forecast ensemble. In the analysis step, the forecast ensemble is updated with the incoming observation using a Kalman-like correction, which is then used for the next forecast step. In realistic large-scale applications, EnKFs are implemented with limited ensembles, and often poorly known model errors statistics, leading to a crude approximation of the forecast covariance. This strongly limits the filter performance. Recently, a new EnKF was proposed in [1] following a one-step-ahead smoothing strategy (EnKF-OSA), which involves an OSA smoothing of the state between two successive analysis. At each time step, EnKF-OSA exploits the observation twice. The incoming observation is first used to smooth the ensemble at the previous time step. The resulting smoothed ensemble is then integrated forward to compute a "pseudo forecast" ensemble, which is again updated with the same observation. The idea of constraining the state with future observations is to add more information in the estimation process in order to mitigate for the sub-optimal character of EnKF-like methods. The second EnKF-OSA "forecast" is computed from the smoothed ensemble and should therefore provide an improved background. In this work, we propose a deterministic variant of the EnKF-OSA, based on the Singular Evolutive Interpolated Ensemble Kalman (SEIK) filter. The motivation behind this is to avoid the observations perturbations of the EnKF in order to improve the scheme\\'s behavior when assimilating big data sets with small ensembles. The new SEIK-OSA scheme is implemented and its efficiency is demonstrated
Ensemble treatments of thermal pairing in nuclei
Hung, Nguyen Quang; Dang, Nguyen Dinh
2009-10-01
A systematic comparison is conducted for pairing properties of finite systems at nonzero temperature as predicted by the exact solutions of the pairing problem embedded in three principal statistical ensembles, namely the grandcanonical ensemble, canonical ensemble and microcanonical ensemble, as well as the unprojected (FTBCS1+SCQRPA) and Lipkin-Nogami projected (FTLN1+SCQRPA) theories that include the quasiparticle number fluctuation and coupling to pair vibrations within the self-consistent quasiparticle random-phase approximation. The numerical calculations are performed for the pairing gap, total energy, heat capacity, entropy, and microcanonical temperature within the doubly-folded equidistant multilevel pairing model. The FTLN1+SCQRPA predictions are found to agree best with the exact grand-canonical results. In general, all approaches clearly show that the superfluid-normal phase transition is smoothed out in finite systems. A novel formula is suggested for extracting the empirical pairing gap in reasonable agreement with the exact canonical results.
Ensemble Machine Learning Methods and Applications
Ma, Yunqian
2012-01-01
It is common wisdom that gathering a variety of views and inputs improves the process of decision making, and, indeed, underpins a democratic society. Dubbed “ensemble learning” by researchers in computational intelligence and machine learning, it is known to improve a decision system’s robustness and accuracy. Now, fresh developments are allowing researchers to unleash the power of ensemble learning in an increasing range of real-world applications. Ensemble learning algorithms such as “boosting” and “random forest” facilitate solutions to key computational issues such as face detection and are now being applied in areas as diverse as object trackingand bioinformatics. Responding to a shortage of literature dedicated to the topic, this volume offers comprehensive coverage of state-of-the-art ensemble learning techniques, including various contributions from researchers in leading industrial research labs. At once a solid theoretical study and a practical guide, the volume is a windfall for r...
Transition from Poisson to circular unitary ensemble
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Vinayak; Akhilesh Pandey
2009-09-01
Transitions to universality classes of random matrix ensembles have been useful in the study of weakly-broken symmetries in quantum chaotic systems. Transitions involving Poisson as the initial ensemble have been particularly interesting. The exact two-point correlation function was derived by one of the present authors for the Poisson to circular unitary ensemble (CUE) transition with uniform initial density. This is given in terms of a rescaled symmetry breaking parameter Λ. The same result was obtained for Poisson to Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) transition by Kunz and Shapiro, using the contour-integral method of Brezin and Hikami. We show that their method is applicable to Poisson to CUE transition with arbitrary initial density. Their method is also applicable to the more general ℓ CUE to CUE transition where CUE refers to the superposition of ℓ independent CUE spectra in arbitrary ratio.
Local Ensemble Kalman Particle Filters for efficient data assimilation
Robert, Sylvain
2016-01-01
Ensemble methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are widely used for data assimilation in large-scale geophysical applications, as for example in numerical weather prediction (NWP). There is a growing interest for physical models with higher and higher resolution, which brings new challenges for data assimilation techniques because of the presence of non-linear and non-Gaussian features that are not adequately treated by the EnKF. We propose two new localized algorithms based on the Ensemble Kalman Particle Filter (EnKPF), a hybrid method combining the EnKF and the Particle Filter (PF) in a way that maintains scalability and sample diversity. Localization is a key element of the success of EnKFs in practice, but it is much more challenging to apply to PFs. The algorithms that we introduce in the present paper provide a compromise between the EnKF and the PF while avoiding some of the problems of localization for pure PFs. Numerical experiments with a simplified model of cumulus convection based on a...
HIPPI: highly accurate protein family classification with ensembles of HMMs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nam-phuong Nguyen
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Given a new biological sequence, detecting membership in a known family is a basic step in many bioinformatics analyses, with applications to protein structure and function prediction and metagenomic taxon identification and abundance profiling, among others. Yet family identification of sequences that are distantly related to sequences in public databases or that are fragmentary remains one of the more difficult analytical problems in bioinformatics. Results We present a new technique for family identification called HIPPI (Hierarchical Profile Hidden Markov Models for Protein family Identification. HIPPI uses a novel technique to represent a multiple sequence alignment for a given protein family or superfamily by an ensemble of profile hidden Markov models computed using HMMER. An evaluation of HIPPI on the Pfam database shows that HIPPI has better overall precision and recall than blastp, HMMER, and pipelines based on HHsearch, and maintains good accuracy even for fragmentary query sequences and for protein families with low average pairwise sequence identity, both conditions where other methods degrade in accuracy. Conclusion HIPPI provides accurate protein family identification and is robust to difficult model conditions. Our results, combined with observations from previous studies, show that ensembles of profile Hidden Markov models can better represent multiple sequence alignments than a single profile Hidden Markov model, and thus can improve downstream analyses for various bioinformatic tasks. Further research is needed to determine the best practices for building the ensemble of profile Hidden Markov models. HIPPI is available on GitHub at https://github.com/smirarab/sepp .
Gradient flow and scale setting on MILC HISQ ensembles
Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Komijani, J; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S
2015-01-01
We report on a scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f=2+1+1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from approximately 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ and their tree-level improvements, $\\sqrt{t_{0,{\\rm imp}}}$ and $w_{0,{\\rm imp}}$, are computed on each ensemble using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of the energy density $E$. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor-series ansatz for the lattice-spacing and strong-coupling dependence, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. We determine the scales $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1416({}_{-5}^{+8})$ fm and $w_0 = 0.1717({}_{-11}^{+12})$ fm, where the errors are sums, in quadrature, of statistical and all systematic errors. The precision of $w_0$ and $\\sqrt{t_0}$ is comparable to or more precise than...
Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR ensemble modeling system
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
X.-Z. Liang
2013-04-01
Full Text Available A Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR ensemble modeling system has been developed to incorporate the largest choices of alternative parameterizations for cloud properties (cover, water, radius, optics, geometry, aerosol properties (type, profile, optics, radiation transfers (solar, infrared, and their interactions. These schemes form the most comprehensive collection currently available in the literature, including those used by the world leading general circulation models (GCMs. The CAR provides a unique framework to determine (via intercomparison across all schemes, reduce (via optimized ensemble simulations, and attribute specific key factors for (via physical process sensitivity analyses the model discrepancies and uncertainties in representing greenhouse gas, aerosol and cloud radiative forcing effects. This study presents a general description of the CAR system and illustrates its capabilities for climate modeling applications, especially in the context of estimating climate sensitivity and uncertainty range caused by cloud-aerosol-radiation interactions. For demonstration purpose, the evaluation is based on several CAR standalone and coupled climate model experiments, each comparing a limited subset of the full system ensemble with up to 896 members. It is shown that the quantification of radiative forcings and climate impacts strongly depends on the choices of the cloud, aerosol and radiation schemes. The prevailing schemes used in current GCMs are likely insufficient in variety and physically biased in a significant way. There exists large room for improvement by optimally combining radiation transfer with cloud property schemes.
Combined QCD and electroweak analysis of HERA data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Abramowicz, H. [Tel Aviv Univ. (Israel). School of Physics; Max-Planck-Institute for Physics, Munich (Germany); Abt, I. [Max-Planck-Institute for Physics, Munich (Germany); Adamczyk, L. [AGH-Univ. of Science and Technology, Krakow (Poland). Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science; Collaboration: ZEUS Collaboration; and others
2016-03-15
A simultaneous fit of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and electroweak parameters to HERA data on deep inelastic scattering is presented. The input data are the neutral current and charged current inclusive cross sections which were previously used in the QCD analysis leading to the HERAPDF2.0 PDFs. In addition, the polarisation of the electron beam was taken into account for the ZEUS data recorded between 2004 and 2007. Results on the vector and axial-vector couplings of the Z boson to u- and d-type quarks, on the value of the electroweak mixing angle and the mass of the W boson are presented. The values obtained for the electroweak parameters are in agreement with Standard Model predictions.
MAMMOGRAMS ANALYSIS USING SVM CLASSIFIER IN COMBINED TRANSFORMS DOMAIN
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B.N. Prathibha
2011-02-01
Full Text Available Breast cancer is a primary cause of mortality and morbidity in women. Reports reveal that earlier the detection of abnormalities, better the improvement in survival. Digital mammograms are one of the most effective means for detecting possible breast anomalies at early stages. Digital mammograms supported with Computer Aided Diagnostic (CAD systems help the radiologists in taking reliable decisions. The proposed CAD system extracts wavelet features and spectral features for the better classification of mammograms. The Support Vector Machines classifier is used to analyze 206 mammogram images from Mias database pertaining to the severity of abnormality, i.e., benign and malign. The proposed system gives 93.14% accuracy for discrimination between normal-malign and 87.25% accuracy for normal-benign samples and 89.22% accuracy for benign-malign samples. The study reveals that features extracted in hybrid transform domain with SVM classifier proves to be a promising tool for analysis of mammograms.
Combined QCD and electroweak analysis of HERA data
Abramowicz, H; Adamczyk, L; Adamus, M; Antonelli, S; Aushev, V; Behnke, O; Behrens, U; Bertolin, A; Bloch, I; Boos, EG; Brock, I; Brook, NH; Brugnera, R; Bruni, A; Bussey, PJ; Caldwell, A; Capua, M; Catterall, CD; Chwastowski, J; Ciborowski, J; Ciesielski, R; Cooper-Sarkar, AM; Corradi, M; Dementiev, RK; Devenish, RCE; Dusini, S; Foster, B; Gach, G; Gallo, E; Garfagnini, A; Geiser, A; Gizhko, A; Gladilin, LK; Golubkov, Yu A; Grzelak, G; Guzik, M; Hain, W; Hochman, D; Hori, R; Ibrahim, ZA; Iga, Y; Ishitsuka, M; Januschek, F; Jomhari, NZ; Kadenko, I; Kananov, S; Karshon, U; Kaur, P; Kisielewska, D; Klanner, R; Klein, U; Korzhavina, IA; Kotański, A; Kötz, U; Kovalchuk, N; Kowalski, H; Krupa, B; Kuprash, O; Kuze, M; Levchenko, BB; Levy, A; Limentani, S; Lisovyi, M; Lobodzinska, E; Löhr, B; Lohrmann, E; Longhin, A; Lontkovskyi, D; Lukina, OYu; Makarenko, I; Malka, J; Mohamad Idris, F; Mohammad Nasir, N; Myronenko, V; Nagano, K; Nobe, T; Nowak, RJ; Onishchuk, Yu; Paul, E; Perlański, W; Pokrovskiy, NS; Przybycien, M; Roloff, P; Ruspa, M; Saxon, DH; Schioppa, M; Schneekloth, U; Schörner-Sadenius, T; Shcheglova, LM; Shevchenko, R; Shkola, O; Shyrma, Yu; Singh, I; Skillicorn, IO; Słomiński, W; Solano, A; Stanco, L; Stefaniuk, N; Stern, A; Stopa, P; Sztuk-Dambietz, J; Tassi, E; Tokushuku, K; Tomaszewska, J; Tsurugai, T; Turcato, M; Turkot, O; Tymieniecka, T; Verbytskyi, A; Wan Abdullah, WAT; Wichmann, K; Wing, M; Yamada, S; Yamazaki, Y; Zakharchuk, N; Żarnecki, AF; Zawiejski, L; Zenaiev, O; Zhautykov, BO; Zotkin, DS; Bhadra, S; Gwenlan, C; Hlushchenko, O; Polini, A; Mastroberardino, A
2016-01-01
A simultaneous fit of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and electroweak parameters to HERA data on deep inelastic scattering is presented. The input data are the neutral current and charged current inclusive cross sections which were previously used in the QCD analysis leading to the HERAPDF2.0 PDFs. In addition, the polarisation of the electron beam was taken into account for the ZEUS data recorded between 2004 and 2007. Results on the vector and axial-vector couplings of the Z boson to u- and d-type quarks, on the value of the electroweak mixing angle and the mass of the W boson are presented. The values obtained for the electroweak parameters are in agreement with Standard Model predictions.
Method to detect gravitational waves from an ensemble of known pulsars
Fan, Xilong; Messenger, Christopher
2016-01-01
Combining information from weak sources, such as known pulsars, for gravitational wave detection, is an attractive approach to improve detection efficiency. We propose an optimal statistic for a general ensemble of signals and apply it to an ensemble of known pulsars. Our method combines $\\mathcal F$-statistic values from individual pulsars using weights proportional to each pulsar's expected optimal signal-to-noise ratio to improve the detection efficiency. We also point out that to detect at least one pulsar within an ensemble, different thresholds should be designed for each source based on the expected signal strength. The performance of our proposed detection statistic is demonstrated using simulated sources, with the assumption that all pulsars' ellipticities belong to a common (yet unknown) distribution. Comparing with an equal-weight strategy and with individual source approaches, we show that the weighted-combination of all known pulsars, where weights are assigned based on the pulsars' known informa...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rachida El Ouaraini
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The implementation of a regional ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system requires the specification of appropriate perturbations of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs, in order to simulate associated errors. The sensitivity of analysis and 6-h forecast ensemble spread to these perturbations is studied here formally and experimentally by comparing three different LBC configurations for the ensemble data assimilation system of the ALADIN-France limited-area model (LAM. While perturbed initial LBCs are provided by the perturbed LAM analyses in each ensemble, the three ensemble configurations differ with respect to LBCs used at 3- and 6-h forecast ranges, which respectively correspond to: (1 perturbed LBCs provided by the operational global ensemble data assimilation system (GLBC, which is considered as a reference configuration; (2 unperturbed LBCs (ULBC obtained from the global deterministic model; (3 perturbed LBCs obtained by adding random draws of an error covariance model (PLBC to the global deterministic system. A formal analysis of error and perturbation equations is first carried out, in order to provide an insight of the relative effects of observation perturbations and of LBC perturbations at different ranges, in the various ensemble configurations. Horizontal variations of time-averaged ensemble spread are then examined for 6-h forecasts. Despite the use of perturbed initial LBCs, the regional ensemble ULBC is underdispersive not only near the lateral boundaries, but also in approximately one-third of the inner area, due to advection during the data assimilation cycle. This artefact is avoided in PLBC through the additional use of non-zero LBC perturbations at 3- and 6-h ranges, and the sensitivity to the amplitude scaling of the covariance model is illustrated for this configuration. Some aspects of the temporal variation of ensemble spread and associated sensitivities to LBC perturbations are also studied. These results
Calibrating ensemble reliability whilst preserving spatial structure
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jonathan Flowerdew
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim to improve decision-making by predicting a set of possible outcomes. Ideally, these would provide probabilities which are both sharp and reliable. In practice, the models, data assimilation and ensemble perturbation systems are all imperfect, leading to deficiencies in the predicted probabilities. This paper presents an ensemble post-processing scheme which directly targets local reliability, calibrating both climatology and ensemble dispersion in one coherent operation. It makes minimal assumptions about the underlying statistical distributions, aiming to extract as much information as possible from the original dynamic forecasts and support statistically awkward variables such as precipitation. The output is a set of ensemble members preserving the spatial, temporal and inter-variable structure from the raw forecasts, which should be beneficial to downstream applications such as hydrological models. The calibration is tested on three leading 15-d ensemble systems, and their aggregation into a simple multimodel ensemble. Results are presented for 12 h, 1° scale over Europe for a range of surface variables, including precipitation. The scheme is very effective at removing unreliability from the raw forecasts, whilst generally preserving or improving statistical resolution. In most cases, these benefits extend to the rarest events at each location within the 2-yr verification period. The reliability and resolution are generally equivalent or superior to those achieved using a Local Quantile-Quantile Transform, an established calibration method which generalises bias correction. The value of preserving spatial structure is demonstrated by the fact that 3×3 averages derived from grid-scale precipitation calibration perform almost as well as direct calibration at 3×3 scale, and much better than a similar test neglecting the spatial relationships. Some remaining issues are discussed regarding the finite size of the output
Cluster Ensemble-based Image Segmentation
Xiaoru Wang; Junping Du; Shuzhe Wu; Xu Li; Fu Li
2013-01-01
Image segmentation is the foundation of computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a new cluster ensemble-based image segmentation algorithm, which overcomes several problems of traditional methods. We make two main contributions in this paper. First, we introduce the cluster ensemble concept to fuse the segmentation results from different types of visual features effectively, which can deliver a better final result and achieve a much more stable performance for broad categories ...
Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms
Mallet, Vivien; Stoltz, Gilles; Mauricette, Boris
2009-01-01
International audience; We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Polyphemus. The ensemble simulations are obtained by changes in the physical parameterizations, the numerical schemes, and the input data to the models. The simulations are carried out for summer 2001 over western Europe in order to forecast ozone daily peaks and ozone hourly concentrati...
Reversible Projective Measurement in Quantum Ensembles
Khitrin, Anatoly; Lee, Jae-Seung
2010-01-01
We present experimental NMR demonstration of a scheme of reversible projective measurement, which allows extracting information on outcomes and probabilities of a projective measurement in a non-destructive way, with a minimal net effect on the quantum state of an ensemble. The scheme uses reversible dynamics and weak measurement of the intermediate state. The experimental system is an ensemble of 133Cs (S = 7/2) nuclei in a liquid-crystalline matrix.
Amozegar, M; Khorasani, K
2016-04-01
In this paper, a new approach for Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) of gas turbine engines is proposed by developing an ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers. For health monitoring of the gas turbine engine, its dynamics is first identified by constructing three separate or individual dynamic neural network architectures. Specifically, a dynamic multi-layer perceptron (MLP), a dynamic radial-basis function (RBF) neural network, and a dynamic support vector machine (SVM) are trained to individually identify and represent the gas turbine engine dynamics. Next, three ensemble-based techniques are developed to represent the gas turbine engine dynamics, namely, two heterogeneous ensemble models and one homogeneous ensemble model. It is first shown that all ensemble approaches do significantly improve the overall performance and accuracy of the developed system identification scheme when compared to each of the stand-alone solutions. The best selected stand-alone model (i.e., the dynamic RBF network) and the best selected ensemble architecture (i.e., the heterogeneous ensemble) in terms of their performances in achieving an accurate system identification are then selected for solving the FDI task. The required residual signals are generated by using both a single model-based solution and an ensemble-based solution under various gas turbine engine health conditions. Our extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the fault detection and isolation task achieved by using the residuals that are obtained from the dynamic ensemble scheme results in a significantly more accurate and reliable performance as illustrated through detailed quantitative confusion matrix analysis and comparative studies.
Sequential Ensembles Tolerant to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR Soil Moisture Retrieval Errors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ju Hyoung Lee
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Due to complicated and undefined systematic errors in satellite observation, data assimilation integrating model states with satellite observations is more complicated than field measurements-based data assimilation at a local scale. In the case of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR soil moisture, the systematic errors arising from uncertainties in roughness conditions are significant and unavoidable, but current satellite bias correction methods do not resolve the problems very well. Thus, apart from the bias correction process of satellite observation, it is important to assess the inherent capability of satellite data assimilation in such sub-optimal but more realistic observational error conditions. To this end, time-evolving sequential ensembles of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF is compared with stationary ensemble of the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI scheme that does not evolve the ensembles over time. As the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the surface roughness is more sensitive to the SAR retrievals than measurement errors, it is a scope of this study to monitor how data assimilation alters the effects of roughness on SAR soil moisture retrievals. In results, two data assimilation schemes all provided intermediate values between SAR overestimation, and model underestimation. However, under the same SAR observational error conditions, the sequential ensembles approached a calibrated model showing the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, while the stationary ensemble converged towards the SAR observations exhibiting the highest RMSE. As compared to stationary ensembles, sequential ensembles have a better tolerance to SAR retrieval errors. Such inherent nature of EnKF suggests an operational merit as a satellite data assimilation system, due to the limitation of bias correction methods currently available.
Using Ensemble Models to Classify the Sentiment Expressed in Suicide Notes
McCart, James A.; Finch, Dezon K.; Jarman, Jay; Hickling, Edward; Lind, Jason D.; Richardson, Matthew R.; Berndt, Donald J.; Luther, Stephen L.
2012-01-01
In 2007, suicide was the tenth leading cause of death in the U.S. Given the significance of this problem, suicide was the focus of the 2011 Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) Natural Language Processing (NLP) shared task competition (track two). Specifically, the challenge concentrated on sentiment analysis, predicting the presence or absence of 15 emotions (labels) simultaneously in a collection of suicide notes spanning over 70 years. Our team explored multiple approaches combining regular expression-based rules, statistical text mining (STM), and an approach that applies weights to text while accounting for multiple labels. Our best submission used an ensemble of both rules and STM models to achieve a micro-averaged F1 score of 0.5023, slightly above the mean from the 26 teams that competed (0.4875). PMID:22879763
Using ensemble models to classify the sentiment expressed in suicide notes.
McCart, James A; Finch, Dezon K; Jarman, Jay; Hickling, Edward; Lind, Jason D; Richardson, Matthew R; Berndt, Donald J; Luther, Stephen L
2012-01-01
In 2007, suicide was the tenth leading cause of death in the U.S. Given the significance of this problem, suicide was the focus of the 2011 Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) Natural Language Processing (NLP) shared task competition (track two). Specifically, the challenge concentrated on sentiment analysis, predicting the presence or absence of 15 emotions (labels) simultaneously in a collection of suicide notes spanning over 70 years. Our team explored multiple approaches combining regular expression-based rules, statistical text mining (STM), and an approach that applies weights to text while accounting for multiple labels. Our best submission used an ensemble of both rules and STM models to achieve a micro-averaged F(1) score of 0.5023, slightly above the mean from the 26 teams that competed (0.4875).
Huang, Yong; Wang, Kehong; Zhou, Zhilan; Zhou, Xiaoxiao; Fang, Jimi
2017-03-01
The arc of gas metal arc welding (GMAW) contains abundant information about its stability and droplet transition, which can be effectively characterized by extracting the arc electrical signals. In this study, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) was used to evaluate the stability of electrical current signals. The welding electrical signals were first decomposed by EEMD, and then transformed to a Hilbert–Huang spectrum and a marginal spectrum. The marginal spectrum is an approximate distribution of amplitude with frequency of signals, and can be described by a marginal index. Analysis of various welding process parameters showed that the marginal index of current signals increased when the welding process was more stable, and vice versa. Thus EEMD combined with the marginal index can effectively uncover the stability and droplet transition of GMAW.
Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. Yiou
2013-09-01
Full Text Available This paper uses a method of atmospheric flow analogues to reconstruct an ensemble of atmospheric variables (namely sea-level pressure, surface temperature and wind speed between 1781 and 1785. The properties of this ensemble are investigated and tested against observations of temperature. The goal of the paper is to assess whether the atmospheric circulation during the Laki volcanic eruption (in 1783 and the subsequent winter were similar to the conditions that prevailed in the winter 2009/2010 and during spring 2010. We find that the three months following the Laki eruption in June 1783 barely have analogues in 2010. The cold winter of 1783/1784 yields circulation analogues in 2009/2010. Our analysis suggests that it is unlikely that the Laki eruption was responsible for the cold winter of 1783/1784, of the relatively short memory of the atmospheric circulation.
A Multiresolution Ensemble Kalman Filter using Wavelet Decomposition
Hickmann, Kyle S
2015-01-01
We present a method of using classical wavelet based multiresolution analysis to separate scales in model and observations during data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter. In many applications, the underlying physics of a phenomena involve the interaction of features at multiple scales. Blending of observational and model error across scales can result in large forecast inaccuracies since large errors at one scale are interpreted as inexact data at all scales. Our method uses a transformation of the observation operator in order to separate the information from different scales of the observations. This naturally induces a transformation of the observation covariance and we put forward several algorithms to efficiently compute the transformed covariance. Another advantage of our multiresolution ensemble Kalman filter is that scales can be weighted independently to adjust each scale's effect on the forecast. To demonstrate feasibility we present applications to a one dimensional Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. Crestani
2012-11-01
Full Text Available The significance of estimating the spatial variability of the hydraulic conductivity K in natural aquifers is relevant to the possibility of defining the space and time evolution of a non-reactive plume, since the transport of a solute is mainly controlled by the heterogeneity of K. At the local scale, the spatial distribution of K can be inferred by combining the Lagrangian formulation of the transport with a Kalman filter-based technique and assimilating a sequence of time-lapse concentration C measurements, which, for example, can be evaluated on-site through the application of a geophysical method. The objective of this work is to compare the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and the ensemble smoother (ES capabilities to retrieve the hydraulic conductivity spatial distribution in a groundwater flow and transport modeling framework. The application refers to a two-dimensional synthetic aquifer in which a tracer test is simulated. Moreover, since Kalman filter-based methods are optimal only if each of the involved variables fit to a Gaussian probability density function (pdf and since this condition may not be met by some of the flow and transport state variables, issues related to the non-Gaussianity of the variables are analyzed and different transformation of the pdfs are considered in order to evaluate their influence on the performance of the methods. The results show that the EnKF reproduces with good accuracy the hydraulic conductivity field, outperforming the ES regardless of the pdf of the concentrations.
Stochastic ensembles, conformationally adaptive teamwork, and enzymatic detoxification.
Atkins, William M; Qian, Hong
2011-05-17
It has been appreciated for a long time that enzymes exist as conformational ensembles throughout multiple stages of the reactions they catalyze, but there is renewed interest in the functional implications. The energy landscape that results from conformationlly diverse poteins is a complex surface with an energetic topography in multiple dimensions, even at the transition state(s) leading to product formation, and this represents a new paradigm. At the same time there has been renewed interest in conformational ensembles, a new paradigm concerning enzyme function has emerged, wherein catalytic promiscuity has clear biological advantages in some cases. "Useful", or biologically functional, promiscuity or the related behavior of "multifunctionality" can be found in the immune system, enzymatic detoxification, signal transduction, and the evolution of new function from an existing pool of folded protein scaffolds. Experimental evidence supports the widely held assumption that conformational heterogeneity promotes functional promiscuity. The common link between these coevolving paradigms is the inherent structural plasticity and conformational dynamics of proteins that, on one hand, lead to complex but evolutionarily selected energy landscapes and, on the other hand, promote functional promiscuity. Here we consider a logical extension of the overlap between these two nascent paradigms: functionally promiscuous and multifunctional enzymes such as detoxification enzymes are expected to have an ensemble landscape with more states accessible on multiple time scales than substrate specific enzymes. Two attributes of detoxification enzymes become important in the context of conformational ensembles: these enzymes metabolize multiple substrates, often in substrate mixtures, and they can form multiple products from a single substrate. These properties, combined with complex conformational landscapes, lead to the possibility of interesting time-dependent, or emergent
The classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble
Zhu, Xuanmin; Wu, Shengjun; Liu, Quanhui
2010-01-01
In this paper, we investigate the classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble. We define a quantity called classicality to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. An ensemble of commuting states that can be manipulated classically has a unit classicality, while a general ensemble has a classicality less than 1. We also study how quantum an ensemble is by defining a related quantity called quantumness. We find that the classicality of an ensemble is closely related to how perfectly the ensemble can be cloned, and that the quantumness of an ensemble is essentially responsible for the security of quantum key distribution(QKD) protocols using that ensemble. Furthermore, we show that the quantumness of an ensemble used in a QKD protocol is exactly the attainable lower bound of the error rate in the sifted key.
Orchestrating Distributed Resource Ensembles for Petascale Science
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baldin, Ilya; Mandal, Anirban; Ruth, Paul; Yufeng, Xin
2014-04-24
Distributed, data-intensive computational science applications of interest to DOE scientific com- munities move large amounts of data for experiment data management, distributed analysis steps, remote visualization, and accessing scientific instruments. These applications need to orchestrate ensembles of resources from multiple resource pools and interconnect them with high-capacity multi- layered networks across multiple domains. It is highly desirable that mechanisms are designed that provide this type of resource provisioning capability to a broad class of applications. It is also important to have coherent monitoring capabilities for such complex distributed environments. In this project, we addressed these problems by designing an abstract API, enabled by novel semantic resource descriptions, for provisioning complex and heterogeneous resources from multiple providers using their native provisioning mechanisms and control planes: computational, storage, and multi-layered high-speed network domains. We used an extensible resource representation based on semantic web technologies to afford maximum flexibility to applications in specifying their needs. We evaluated the effectiveness of provisioning using representative data-intensive ap- plications. We also developed mechanisms for providing feedback about resource performance to the application, to enable closed-loop feedback control and dynamic adjustments to resource allo- cations (elasticity). This was enabled through development of a novel persistent query framework that consumes disparate sources of monitoring data, including perfSONAR, and provides scalable distribution of asynchronous notifications.
Ensemble postprocessing for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts
Bentzien, S.; Friederichs, P.
2012-12-01
Precipitation is one of the most difficult weather variables to predict in hydrometeorological applications. In order to assess the uncertainty inherent in deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP), meteorological services around the globe develop ensemble prediction systems (EPS) based on high-resolution NWP systems. With non-hydrostatic model dynamics and without parameterization of deep moist convection, high-resolution NWP models are able to describe convective processes in more detail and provide more realistic mesoscale structures. However, precipitation forecasts are still affected by displacement errors, systematic biases and fast error growth on small scales. Probabilistic guidance can be achieved from an ensemble setup which accounts for model error and uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) provides such an ensemble system based on the German-focused limited-area model COSMO-DE. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2.8 km, COSMO-DE is the convection-permitting high-resolution part of the operational model chain at DWD. The COSMO-DE-EPS consists of 20 realizations of COSMO-DE, driven by initial and boundary conditions derived from 4 global models and 5 perturbations of model physics. Ensemble systems like COSMO-DE-EPS are often limited with respect to ensemble size due to the immense computational costs. As a consequence, they can be biased and exhibit insufficient ensemble spread, and probabilistic forecasts may be not well calibrated. In this study, probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts are derived from COSMO-DE-EPS and evaluated at more than 1000 rain gauges located all over Germany. COSMO-DE-EPS is a frequently updated ensemble system, initialized 8 times a day. We use the time-lagged approach to inexpensively increase ensemble spread, which results in more reliable forecasts especially for extreme precipitation events. Moreover, we will show that statistical
Hartnett, Michael; Ren, Lei
2013-04-01
This paper describes the application of Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) with Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for surface currents forecasting. Environment Fluid Dynamics Codes (EFDC) is run for 7 days with initial conditions and boundary conditions. For the assimilation process, Direct Insertion (DI), Optimal Interpolation (OI) and Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) approaches are applied from t=5.0d, and wind forcing is switched off during updating process. For Optimal Interpolation, background error covariance is estimated from the first run combining empirical correlation function, while for Ensemble Optimal Interpolation, background error covariance is calculated from the ensemble of first run, optimal number of ensemble is acquired by comparing different assimilation. Different strategies have been proposed to obtain the measurement error covariance, optimal measurement error covariance gives the least forecast error. Different kinds of pseudo measurements are produced from Monte Carlo simulation by adding different type of perturbations, which obey certain distribution. A series of experiments with distinct perturbations are carried out to show the improvement of simulating the stochastic process. Three types of reference points: inside of the assimilation area, outside of the assimilation area, and the boundary points are analyzed to show the improvement of the assimilation process and the influence after assimilation. This study also investigates the impacts of the updating interval for the assimilation process, the felicitous updating interval is chosen by comparison. To compare the improvement of operating Ensemble Optimal Interpolation with Direct Insertion and Optimal Interpolation, RMS error and data assimilation skill are calculated.
Automatic generation of large ensembles for air quality forecasting using the Polyphemus system
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Garaud
2009-07-01
Full Text Available This paper describes a method to automatically generate a large ensemble of air quality simulations. This is achieved using the Polyphemus system, which is flexible enough to build various different models. The system offers a wide range of options in the construction of a model: many physical parameterizations, several numerical schemes and different input data can be combined. In addition, input data can be perturbed. In this paper, some 30 alternatives are available for the generation of a model. For each alternative, the options are given a probability, based on how reliable they are supposed to be. Each model of the ensemble is defined by randomly selecting one option per alternative. In order to decrease the computational load, as many computations as possible are shared by the models of the ensemble. As an example, an ensemble of 101 photochemical models is generated and run for the year 2001 over Europe. The models' performance is quickly reviewed, and the ensemble structure is analyzed. We found a strong diversity in the results of the models and a wide spread of the ensemble. It is noteworthy that many models turn out to be the best model in some regions and some dates.
Strong Coupling of a Donor Spin Ensemble to a Volume Microwave Resonator
Rose, Brendon; Tyryshkin, Alexei; Lyon, Stephen
We achieve the strong coupling regime between an ensemble of phosphorus donor spins (5e13 total donors) in highly enriched 28-Si (50 ppm 29-Si) and a standard dielectric resonator. Spins were polarized beyond Boltzmann equilibrium to a combined electron and nuclear polarization of 120 percent using spin selective optical excitation of the no-phonon bound exciton transition. We observed a spin ensemble-resonator splitting of 580 kHz (2g) in a cavity with a Q factor of 75,000 (κ loss rates respectively). The spin ensemble has a long dephasing time (9 μs) providing a wide window for viewing the time evolution of the coupled spin ensemble-cavity system described by the Tavis-Cummings model The free induction decay shows repeated collapses and revivals revealing a coherent and complete exchange of excitations between the superradiant state of the spin ensemble and the cavity (about 10 cycles are resolved). This exchange can be viewed as a swap of information between a long lived spin ensemble memory qubit (T2 ~ 2 ms) and a cavity
Schilling, C H; Edwards, J S; Letscher, D; Palsson, B Ø
The elucidation of organism-scale metabolic networks necessitates the development of integrative methods to analyze and interpret the systemic properties of cellular metabolism. A shift in emphasis from single metabolic reactions to systemically defined pathways is one consequence of such an integrative analysis of metabolic systems. The constraints of systemic stoichiometry, and limited thermodynamics have led to the definition of the flux space within the context of convex analysis. The flux space of the metabolic system, containing all allowable flux distributions, is constrained to a convex polyhedral cone in a high-dimensional space. From metabolic pathway analysis, the edges of the high-dimensional flux cone are vectors that correspond to systemically defined "extreme pathways" spanning the capabilities of the system. The addition of maximum flux capacities of individual metabolic reactions serves to further constrain the flux space and has led to the development of flux balance analysis using linear optimization to calculate optimal flux distributions. Here we provide the precise theoretical connections between pathway analysis and flux balance analysis allowing for their combined application to study integrated metabolic function. Shifts in metabolic behavior are calculated using linear optimization and are then interpreted using the extreme pathways to demonstrate the concept of pathway utilization. Changes to the reaction network, such as the removal of a reaction, can lead to the generation of suboptimal phenotypes that can be directly attributed to the loss of pathway function and capabilities. Optimal growth phenotypes are calculated as a function of environmental variables, such as the availability of substrate and oxygen, leading to the definition of phenotypic phase planes. It is illustrated how optimality properties of the computed flux distributions can be interpreted in terms of the extreme pathways. Together these developments are applied to an
Tallarida, Ronald J.; Raffa, Robert B.
2010-01-01
In this review we show that the concept of dose equivalence for two drugs, the theoretical basis of the isobologram, has a wider use in the analysis of pharmacological data derived from single and combination drug use. In both its application to drug combination analysis with isoboles and certain other actions, listed below, the determination of doses, or receptor occupancies, that yield equal effects provide useful metrics that can be used to obtain quantitative information on drug actions w...
Towards a Method for Combined Model-based Testing and Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Brian
Efficient and effective verification and validation of complex embedded systems is challenging, and requires the use of various tools and techniques, such as model-based testing and analysis. The aim of this paper is to devise an overall \\method{} for how analysis and testing may be used in combi...... interesting combinations and workflows, but also that formulation of more specific combination patterns will be useful to encourage future tool collaborations....
Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.
Simidjievski, Nikola; Todorovski, Ljupčo; Džeroski, Sašo
2016-01-01
Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting), significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna Maria Stellacci
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Hyperspectral (HS data represents an extremely powerful means for rapidly detecting crop stress and then aiding in the rational management of natural resources in agriculture. However, large volume of data poses a challenge for data processing and extracting crucial information. Multivariate statistical techniques can play a key role in the analysis of HS data, as they may allow to both eliminate redundant information and identify synthetic indices which maximize differences among levels of stress. In this paper we propose an integrated approach, based on the combined use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA and Canonical Discriminant Analysis (CDA, to investigate HS plant response and discriminate plant status. The approach was preliminary evaluated on a data set collected on durum wheat plants grown under different nitrogen (N stress levels. Hyperspectral measurements were performed at anthesis through a high resolution field spectroradiometer, ASD FieldSpec HandHeld, covering the 325-1075 nm region. Reflectance data were first restricted to the interval 510-1000 nm and then divided into five bands of the electromagnetic spectrum [green: 510-580 nm; yellow: 581-630 nm; red: 631-690 nm; red-edge: 705-770 nm; near-infrared (NIR: 771-1000 nm]. PCA was applied to each spectral interval. CDA was performed on the extracted components to identify the factors maximizing the differences among plants fertilised with increasing N rates. Within the intervals of green, yellow and red only the first principal component (PC had an eigenvalue greater than 1 and explained more than 95% of total variance; within the ranges of red-edge and NIR, the first two PCs had an eigenvalue higher than 1. Two canonical variables explained cumulatively more than 81% of total variance and the first was able to discriminate wheat plants differently fertilised, as confirmed also by the significant correlation with aboveground biomass and grain yield parameters. The combined
Ensemble Feature Extraction Modules for Improved Hindi Speech Recognition System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Malay Kumar
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Speech is the most natural way of communication between human beings. The field of speech recognition generates intrigues of man - machine conversation and due to its versatile applications; automatic speech recognition systems have been designed. In this paper we are presenting a novel approach for Hindi speech recognition by ensemble feature extraction modules of ASR systems and their outputs have been combined using voting technique ROVER. Experimental results have been shown that proposed system will produce better result than traditional ASR systems.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LU Huijuan; Qin XU; YAO Mingming; GAO Shouting
2011-01-01
By sampling perturbed state vectors from each ensenble prediction run at properly selected time levels in the vicinity of the analysis time, the recently proposed time-expanded sampling approach can enlarge the ensemble size without increasing the number of prediction runs and, hence, can reduce the computational cost of an ensemble-based filter. In this study, this approach is tested for the first time with real radar data from a tornadic thunderstorm. In particular, four assimilation experiments were performed to test the time-expanded sampling method against the conventional ensemble sampling method used by ensemblebased filters. In these experiments, the ensemble square-root filter (EnSRF) was used with 45 ensemble members generated by the time-expanded sampling and conventional sampling from 15 and 45 prediction runs, respectively, and quality-controlled radar data were compressed into super-observations with properly reduced spatial resolutions to improve the EnSRF performances. The results show that the time-expanded sampling approach not only can reduce the computational cost but also can improve the accuracy of the analysis, especially when the ensemble size is severely limited due to computational constraints for real-radar data assimilation. These potential merits are consistent with those previously demonstrated by assimilation experiments with simulated data.
Overlapped partitioning for ensemble classifiers of P300-based brain-computer interfaces.
Onishi, Akinari; Natsume, Kiyohisa
2014-01-01
A P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI) enables a wide range of people to control devices that improve their quality of life. Ensemble classifiers with naive partitioning were recently applied to the P300-based BCI and these classification performances were assessed. However, they were usually trained on a large amount of training data (e.g., 15300). In this study, we evaluated ensemble linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers with a newly proposed overlapped partitioning method using 900 training data. In addition, the classification performances of the ensemble classifier with naive partitioning and a single LDA classifier were compared. One of three conditions for dimension reduction was applied: the stepwise method, principal component analysis (PCA), or none. The results show that an ensemble stepwise LDA (SWLDA) classifier with overlapped partitioning achieved a better performance than the commonly used single SWLDA classifier and an ensemble SWLDA classifier with naive partitioning. This result implies that the performance of the SWLDA is improved by overlapped partitioning and the ensemble classifier with overlapped partitioning requires less training data than that with naive partitioning. This study contributes towards reducing the required amount of training data and achieving better classification performance.
Overlapped partitioning for ensemble classifiers of P300-based brain-computer interfaces.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akinari Onishi
Full Text Available A P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI enables a wide range of people to control devices that improve their quality of life. Ensemble classifiers with naive partitioning were recently applied to the P300-based BCI and these classification performances were assessed. However, they were usually trained on a large amount of training data (e.g., 15300. In this study, we evaluated ensemble linear discriminant analysis (LDA classifiers with a newly proposed overlapped partitioning method using 900 training data. In addition, the classification performances of the ensemble classifier with naive partitioning and a single LDA classifier were compared. One of three conditions for dimension reduction was applied: the stepwise method, principal component analysis (PCA, or none. The results show that an ensemble stepwise LDA (SWLDA classifier with overlapped partitioning achieved a better performance than the commonly used single SWLDA classifier and an ensemble SWLDA classifier with naive partitioning. This result implies that the performance of the SWLDA is improved by overlapped partitioning and the ensemble classifier with overlapped partitioning requires less training data than that with naive partitioning. This study contributes towards reducing the required amount of training data and achieving better classification performance.
Application of ensemble classifier in EEG-based motor imagery tasks
Liu, Bianhong; Hao, Hongwei
2007-12-01
Electroencephalogram (EEG) recorded during motor imagery tasks can be used to move a cursor to a target on a computer screen. Such an EEG-based brain-computer interface (BCI) can provide a new communication channel for the subjects with neuromuscular disorders. To achieve higher speed and more accuracy to enhance the practical applications of BCI in computer aid medical systems, the ensemble classifier is used for the single classification. The ERDs at the electrodes C3 and C4 are calculated and then stacked together into the feature vector for the ensemble classifier. The ensemble classifier is based on Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Nearest Neighbor (NN). Furthermore, it considers the feedback. This method is successfully used in the 2003 international data analysis competition on BCI-tasks (data set III). The results show that the ensemble classifier succeed with a recognition as 90%, on average, which is 5% and 3% higher than that of using the LDA and NN separately. Moreover, the ensemble classifier outperforms LDA and NN in the whole time course. With adequate recognition, ease of use and clearly understood, the ensemble classifier can meet the need of time-requires for single classification.
Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts
2006-02-22
and Delfiner 1999). Covariance structures that are more complex can be accommodated, and we discuss some of the options in Section 5. Note that (3...and P. Delfiner , 1999: Geostatistics: Modeling Spatial Uncertainty. Wiley, 695 pp. Cressie, N. A. C., 1993: Statistics for Spatial Data. Wiley
Normal mode-based approaches in receptor ensemble docking.
Cavasotto, Claudio N
2012-01-01
Explicitly accounting for target flexibility in docking still constitutes a difficult challenge due to the high dimensionality of the conformational space to be sampled. This especially applies to the high-throughput scenario, where the screening of hundreds of thousands compounds takes place. The use of multiple receptor conformations (MRCs) to perform ensemble docking in a sequential fashion is a simple but powerful approach that allows to incorporate binding site structural diversity in the docking process. Whenever enough experimental structures to build a diverse ensemble are not available, normal mode analysis provides an appealing and efficient approach to in silico generate MRCs by distortion along few low-frequency modes that represent collective mid- and large-scale displacements. In this way, the dimension of the conformational space to be sampled is heavily reduced. This methodology is especially suited to incorporate target flexibility at the backbone level. In this chapter, the main components of normal mode-based approaches in the context of ensemble docking are presented and explained, including the theoretical and practical considerations needed for the successful development and implementation of this methodology.
Uncovering representations of sleep-associated hippocampal ensemble spike activity
Chen, Zhe; Grosmark, Andres D.; Penagos, Hector; Wilson, Matthew A.
2016-08-01
Pyramidal neurons in the rodent hippocampus exhibit spatial tuning during spatial navigation, and they are reactivated in specific temporal order during sharp-wave ripples observed in quiet wakefulness or slow wave sleep. However, analyzing representations of sleep-associated hippocampal ensemble spike activity remains a great challenge. In contrast to wake, during sleep there is a complete absence of animal behavior, and the ensemble spike activity is sparse (low occurrence) and fragmental in time. To examine important issues encountered in sleep data analysis, we constructed synthetic sleep-like hippocampal spike data (short epochs, sparse and sporadic firing, compressed timescale) for detailed investigations. Based upon two Bayesian population-decoding methods (one receptive field-based, and the other not), we systematically investigated their representation power and detection reliability. Notably, the receptive-field-free decoding method was found to be well-tuned for hippocampal ensemble spike data in slow wave sleep (SWS), even in the absence of prior behavioral measure or ground truth. Our results showed that in addition to the sample length, bin size, and firing rate, number of active hippocampal pyramidal neurons are critical for reliable representation of the space as well as for detection of spatiotemporal reactivated patterns in SWS or quiet wakefulness.
A meta-analysis of parton distribution functions
Gao, Jun; Nadolsky, Pavel
2014-07-01
A "meta-analysis" is a method for comparison and combination of nonperturbative parton distribution functions (PDFs) in a nucleon obtained with heterogeneous procedures and assumptions. Each input parton distribution set is converted into a "meta-parametrization" based on a common functional form. By analyzing parameters of the meta-parametrizations from all input PDF ensembles, a combined PDF ensemble can be produced that has a smaller total number of PDF member sets than the original ensembles. The meta-parametrizations simplify the computation of the PDF uncertainty in theoretical predictions and provide an alternative to the 2010 PDF4LHC convention for combination of PDF uncertainties. As a practical example, we construct a META ensemble for computation of QCD observables at the Large Hadron Collider using the next-to-next-to-leading order PDF sets from CTEQ, MSTW, and NNPDF groups as the input. The META ensemble includes a central set that reproduces the average of LHC predictions based on the three input PDF ensembles and Hessian eigenvector sets for computing the combined PDF+α s uncertainty at a common QCD coupling strength of 0.118.
A Bayes fusion method based ensemble classification approach for Brown cloud application
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M.Krishnaveni
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Classification is a recurrent task of determining a target function that maps each attribute set to one of the predefined class labels. Ensemble fusion is one of the suitable classifier model fusion techniques which combine the multiple classifiers to perform high classification accuracy than individual classifiers. The main objective of this paper is to combine base classifiers using ensemble fusion methods namely Decision Template, Dempster-Shafer and Bayes to compare the accuracy of the each fusion methods on the brown cloud dataset. The base classifiers like KNN, MLP and SVM have been considered in ensemble classification in which each classifier with four different function parameters. From the experimental study it is proved, that the Bayes fusion method performs better classification accuracy of 95% than Decision Template of 80%, Dempster-Shaferof 85%, in a Brown Cloud image dataset.
Uslu, Faruk Sukru; Binol, Hamidullah; Ilarslan, Mustafa; Bal, Abdullah
2017-02-01
Support Vector Data Description (SVDD) is a nonparametric and powerful method for target detection and classification. The SVDD constructs a minimum hypersphere enclosing the target objects as much as possible. It has advantages of sparsity, good generalization and using kernel machines. In many studies, different methods have been offered in order to improve the performance of the SVDD. In this paper, we have presented ensemble methods to improve classification performance of the SVDD in remotely sensed hyperspectral imagery (HSI) data. Among various ensemble approaches we have selected bagging technique for training data set with different combinations. As a novel technique for weighting we have proposed a correlation based weight coefficients assignment. In this technique, correlation between each bagged classifier is calculated to give coefficients to weighted combinators. To verify the improvement performance, two hyperspectral images are processed for classification purpose. The obtained results show that the ensemble SVDD has been found to be significantly better than conventional SVDD in terms of classification accuracy.
A Hybrid Ensemble Learning Approach to Star-Galaxy Classification
Kim, Edward J; Kind, Matias Carrasco
2015-01-01
There exist a variety of star-galaxy classification techniques, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we present a novel meta-classification framework that combines and fully exploits different techniques to produce a more robust star-galaxy classification. To demonstrate this hybrid, ensemble approach, we combine a purely morphological classifier, a supervised machine learning method based on random forest, an unsupervised machine learning method based on self-organizing maps, and a hierarchical Bayesian template fitting method. Using data from the CFHTLenS survey, we consider different scenarios: when a high-quality training set is available with spectroscopic labels from DEEP2, SDSS, VIPERS, and VVDS, and when the demographics of sources in a low-quality training set do not match the demographics of objects in the test data set. We demonstrate that our Bayesian combination technique improves the overall performance over any individual classification method in these scenarios. Thus, s...
Ullrich-French, Sarah; Cox, Anne E.; Cooper, Brittany Rhoades
2016-01-01
Previous research has used cluster analysis to examine how social physique anxiety (SPA) combines with motivation in physical education. This study utilized a more advanced analytic approach, latent profile analysis (LPA), to identify profiles of SPA and motivation regulations. Students in grades 9-12 (N = 298) completed questionnaires at two time…
Local polynomial method for ensemble forecast of time series
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Regonda
2005-01-01
Full Text Available We present a nonparametric approach based on local polynomial regression for ensemble forecast of time series. The state space is first reconstructed by embedding the univariate time series of the response variable in a space of dimension (D with a delay time (τ. To obtain a forecast from a given time point t, three steps are involved: (i the current state of the system is mapped on to the state space, known as the feature vector, (ii a small number (K=α*n, α=fraction (0,1] of the data, n=data length of neighbors (and their future evolution to the feature vector are identified in the state space, and (iii a polynomial of order p is fitted to the identified neighbors, which is then used for prediction. A suite of parameter combinations (D, τ, α, p is selected based on an objective criterion, called the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV. All of the selected parameter combinations are then used to issue a T-step iterated forecast starting from the current time t, thus generating an ensemble forecast which can be used to obtain the forecast probability density function (PDF. The ensemble approach improves upon the traditional method of providing a single mean forecast by providing the forecast uncertainty. Further, for short noisy data it can provide better forecasts. We demonstrate the utility of this approach on two synthetic (Henon and Lorenz attractors and two real data sets (Great Salt Lake bi-weekly volume and NINO3 index. This framework can also be used to forecast a vector of response variables based on a vector of predictors.
Evaluation of Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter System for the Global FSU Atmospheric Model
Cintra, R. S.; Cocke, S.
2014-12-01
This paper shows the results of a implementation of the data assimilation system to obtain the initial condition to the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for the Florida State University/USA. The better quality of forecasts is given the more accurate the estimate of the initial conditions. The process of combining observations and short-range forecast to obtain an analysis is called data assimilation. The data assimilation system called "Local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is implemented. A prediction estimates ensemble in state space represents the model errors in that scheme. The LETKF is tested with the AGCM Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The model is a multilevel (27 vertical levels) spectral primitive equation model with a vertical σ-coordinate. All variables are expanded horizontally in a truncated series of spherical harmonic functions (at resolution T63) and a transform technique is applied to calculate the physical processes in real space. The LETKF data assimilation experiments are based in two types of the synthetic observations data (surface pressure, absolute temperature, zonal component wind, meridional component wind and humidity) to evaluate the LETKF system for FSUGSM. The data assimilation experiments are based on observational systems simulation experiments where the "nature" is assumed to be known, and adding random noise to the nature run. The first experiment, the "nature" fields are the FSUGSM forecasts without data assimilation, afterwards, we use the "National Centers for Environment Prediction" reanalysis to obtain the "nature" fields. The observations are localized at every other grid point of the model. The forecast ensemble size is 20 members. The numerical experiments have a one-month assimilation cycle, for the period 01/01/2001 to 31/01/2001 at (00, 06, 12 and 18 GMT) for each day. We compare the behavior of the model by comparing with its forecast, observations and nature fields. A
Pan, Xiaoning; Li, Yang; Wu, Zhisheng; Zhang, Qiao; Zheng, Zhou; Shi, Xinyuan; Qiao, Yanjiang
2015-04-14
Model performance of the partial least squares method (PLS) alone and bagging-PLS was investigated in online near-infrared (NIR) sensor monitoring of pilot-scale extraction process in Fructus aurantii. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) was used as a reference method to identify the active pharmaceutical ingredients: naringin, hesperidin and neohesperidin. Several preprocessing methods and synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS) and moving window partial least squares (MWPLS) variable selection methods were compared. Single quantification models (PLS) and ensemble methods combined with partial least squares (bagging-PLS) were developed for quantitative analysis of naringin, hesperidin and neohesperidin. SiPLS was compared to SiPLS combined with bagging-PLS. Final results showed the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of bagging-PLS to be lower than that of PLS regression alone. For this reason, an ensemble method of online NIR sensor is here proposed as a means of monitoring the pilot-scale extraction process in Fructus aurantii, which may also constitute a suitable strategy for online NIR monitoring of CHM.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaoning Pan
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Model performance of the partial least squares method (PLS alone and bagging-PLS was investigated in online near-infrared (NIR sensor monitoring of pilot-scale extraction process in Fructus aurantii. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC was used as a reference method to identify the active pharmaceutical ingredients: naringin, hesperidin and neohesperidin. Several preprocessing methods and synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS and moving window partial least squares (MWPLS variable selection methods were compared. Single quantification models (PLS and ensemble methods combined with partial least squares (bagging-PLS were developed for quantitative analysis of naringin, hesperidin and neohesperidin. SiPLS was compared to SiPLS combined with bagging-PLS. Final results showed the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP of bagging-PLS to be lower than that of PLS regression alone. For this reason, an ensemble method of online NIR sensor is here proposed as a means of monitoring the pilot-scale extraction process in Fructus aurantii, which may also constitute a suitable strategy for online NIR monitoring of CHM.
Cavity cooling of an ensemble spin system.
Wood, Christopher J; Borneman, Troy W; Cory, David G
2014-02-07
We describe how sideband cooling techniques may be applied to large spin ensembles in magnetic resonance. Using the Tavis-Cummings model in the presence of a Rabi drive, we solve a Markovian master equation describing the joint spin-cavity dynamics to derive cooling rates as a function of ensemble size. Our calculations indicate that the coupled angular momentum subspaces of a spin ensemble containing roughly 10(11) electron spins may be polarized in a time many orders of magnitude shorter than the typical thermal relaxation time. The described techniques should permit efficient removal of entropy for spin-based quantum information processors and fast polarization of spin samples. The proposed application of a standard technique in quantum optics to magnetic resonance also serves to reinforce the connection between the two fields, which has recently begun to be explored in further detail due to the development of hybrid designs for manufacturing noise-resilient quantum devices.
Embedded random matrix ensembles in quantum physics
Kota, V K B
2014-01-01
Although used with increasing frequency in many branches of physics, random matrix ensembles are not always sufficiently specific to account for important features of the physical system at hand. One refinement which retains the basic stochastic approach but allows for such features consists in the use of embedded ensembles. The present text is an exhaustive introduction to and survey of this important field. Starting with an easy-to-read introduction to general random matrix theory, the text then develops the necessary concepts from the beginning, accompanying the reader to the frontiers of present-day research. With some notable exceptions, to date these ensembles have primarily been applied in nuclear spectroscopy. A characteristic example is the use of a random two-body interaction in the framework of the nuclear shell model. Yet, topics in atomic physics, mesoscopic physics, quantum information science and statistical mechanics of isolated finite quantum systems can also be addressed using these ensemb...
Characteristic polynomials in real Ginibre ensembles
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Akemann, G; Phillips, M J [Department of Mathematical Sciences and BURSt Research Centre, Brunel University West London, UB8 3PH Uxbridge (United Kingdom); Sommers, H-J [Fachbereich Physik, Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, 47048 Duisburg (Germany)], E-mail: Gernot.Akemann@brunel.ac.uk, E-mail: Michael.Phillips@brunel.ac.uk, E-mail: H.J.Sommers@uni-due.de
2009-01-09
We calculate the average of two characteristic polynomials for the real Ginibre ensemble of asymmetric random matrices, and its chiral counterpart. Considered as quadratic forms they determine a skew-symmetric kernel from which all complex eigenvalue correlations can be derived. Our results are obtained in a very simple fashion without going to an eigenvalue representation, and are completely new in the chiral case. They hold for Gaussian ensembles which are partly symmetric, with kernels given in terms of Hermite and Laguerre polynomials respectively, depending on an asymmetry parameter. This allows us to interpolate between the maximally asymmetric real Ginibre and the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble, as well as their chiral counterparts. (fast track communication)
On large deviations for ensembles of distributions
Khrychev, D. A.
2013-11-01
The paper is concerned with the large deviations problem in the Freidlin-Wentzell formulation without the assumption of the uniqueness of the solution to the equation involving white noise. In other words, it is assumed that for each \\varepsilon>0 the nonempty set \\mathscr P_\\varepsilon of weak solutions is not necessarily a singleton. Analogues of a number of concepts in the theory of large deviations are introduced for the set \\{\\mathscr P_\\varepsilon,\\,\\varepsilon>0\\}, hereafter referred to as an ensemble of distributions. The ensembles of weak solutions of an n-dimensional stochastic Navier-Stokes system and stochastic wave equation with power-law nonlinearity are shown to be uniformly exponentially tight. An idempotent Wiener process in a Hilbert space and idempotent partial differential equations are defined. The accumulation points in the sense of large deviations of the ensembles in question are shown to be weak solutions of the corresponding idempotent equations. Bibliography: 14 titles.
Control and Synchronization of Neuron Ensembles
Li, Jr-Shin; Ruths, Justin
2011-01-01
Synchronization of oscillations is a phenomenon prevalent in natural, social, and engineering systems. Controlling synchronization of oscillating systems is motivated by a wide range of applications from neurological treatment of Parkinson's disease to the design of neurocomputers. In this article, we study the control of an ensemble of uncoupled neuron oscillators described by phase models. We examine controllability of such a neuron ensemble for various phase models and, furthermore, study the related optimal control problems. In particular, by employing Pontryagin's maximum principle, we analytically derive optimal controls for spiking single- and two-neuron systems, and analyze the applicability of the latter to an ensemble system. Finally, we present a robust computational method for optimal control of spiking neurons based on pseudospectral approximations. The methodology developed here is universal to the control of general nonlinear phase oscillators.
Circular β ensembles, CMV representation, characteristic polynomials
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
SU ZhongGen
2009-01-01
In this note we first briefly review some recent progress in the study of the circular β ensemble on the unit circle, where 0 > 0 is a model parameter. In the special cases β = 1,2 and 4, this ensemble describes the joint probability density of eigenvalues of random orthogonal, unitary and sympletic matrices, respectively. For general β, Killip and Nenciu discovered a five-diagonal sparse matrix model, the CMV representation. This representation is new even in the case β = 2; and it has become a powerful tool for studying the circular β ensemble. We then give an elegant derivation for the moment identities of characteristic polynomials via the link with orthogonal polynomials on the unit circle.
Force sensor based tool condition monitoring using a heterogeneous ensemble learning model.
Wang, Guofeng; Yang, Yinwei; Li, Zhimeng
2014-11-14
Tool condition monitoring (TCM) plays an important role in improving machining efficiency and guaranteeing workpiece quality. In order to realize reliable recognition of the tool condition, a robust classifier needs to be constructed to depict the relationship between tool wear states and sensory information. However, because of the complexity of the machining process and the uncertainty of the tool wear evolution, it is hard for a single classifier to fit all the collected samples without sacrificing generalization ability. In this paper, heterogeneous ensemble learning is proposed to realize tool condition monitoring in which the support vector machine (SVM), hidden Markov model (HMM) and radius basis function (RBF) are selected as base classifiers and a stacking ensemble strategy is further used to reflect the relationship between the outputs of these base classifiers and tool wear states. Based on the heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier, an online monitoring system is constructed in which the harmonic features are extracted from force signals and a minimal redundancy and maximal relevance (mRMR) algorithm is utilized to select the most prominent features. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a titanium alloy milling experiment was carried out and samples with different tool wear states were collected to build the proposed heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier. Moreover, the homogeneous ensemble learning model and majority voting strategy are also adopted to make a comparison. The analysis and comparison results show that the proposed heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier performs better in both classification accuracy and stability.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ju Hyoung Lee
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Bias correction is a very important pre-processing step in satellite data assimilation analysis, as data assimilation itself cannot circumvent satellite biases. We introduce a retrieval algorithm-specific and spatially heterogeneous Instantaneous Field of View (IFOV bias correction method for Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS soil moisture. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to present the probabilistic presentation of SMOS soil moisture using retrieval ensembles. We illustrate that retrieval ensembles effectively mitigated the overestimation problem of SMOS soil moisture arising from brightness temperature errors over West Africa in a computationally efficient way (ensemble size: 12, no time-integration. In contrast, the existing method of Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF matching considerably increased the SMOS biases, due to the limitations of relying on the imperfect reference data. From the validation at two semi-arid sites, Benin (moderately wet and vegetated area and Niger (dry and sandy bare soils, it was shown that the SMOS errors arising from rain and vegetation attenuation were appropriately corrected by ensemble approaches. In Benin, the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs decreased from 0.1248 m3/m3 for CDF matching to 0.0678 m3/m3 for the proposed ensemble approach. In Niger, the RMSEs decreased from 0.14 m3/m3 for CDF matching to 0.045 m3/m3 for the ensemble approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jogendra Kushwah
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The free radical gene classification of cancerdiseasesis challenging job in biomedical dataengineering. The improving of classification of geneselection of cancer diseases various classifier areused, but the classification of classifier are notvalidate. So ensemble classifier is used for cancergene classification using neural network classifierwith random forest tree. The random forest tree isensembling technique of classifier in this techniquethe number of classifier ensemble of their leaf nodeof class of classifier. In this paper we combinedneuralnetwork with random forest ensembleclassifier for classification of cancer gene selectionfor diagnose analysis of cancer diseases.Theproposed method is different from most of themethods of ensemble classifier, which follow aninput output paradigm ofneural network, where themembers of the ensemble are selected from a set ofneural network classifier. the number of classifiersis determined during the rising procedure of theforest. Furthermore, the proposed method producesan ensemble not only correct, but also assorted,ensuring the two important properties that shouldcharacterize an ensemble classifier. For empiricalevaluation of our proposed method we used UCIcancer diseases data set for classification. Ourexperimental result shows that betterresult incompression of random forest tree classification
Variation Analysis of Seed and Seedling Traits of Cross Combination Progenies in Populus
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2005-01-01
Twenty-five species and hybrids in Populus were used as parents, and 26 cross combinations, including more than 5 000 seedlings, were obtained by artificial cross breeding. The length of infructescence, number of seeds per infructescence, thousand-seed weight, germination rate of seeds among these cross combinations were tested. The results indicated that the cross combinational effects were significant for these traits, and demonstrated that the length of infructescence, thousand-seed weight were positively affected by female parent. In addition, seedling height, diameter above ground, diameter at breast height (DBH) of 17 cross combination progenies were investigated. The analysis of mean and standard deviation of these three traits showed that seedling height, diameter above ground, DBH had extensive variation among combinations and individuals within combination. Variance analysis and estimate of heritability indicated that the three traits had wide variation and were controlled by heredity. It was feasible to select superior cross combinations and seedlings. Further more, the result of multiple comparison showed that P. deltoides 'Lux' × P. deltoides 'D324', P. ussuriensis cl. 'U4' × P. deltoides 'T66', P. ussuriensis cl. 'U4' × P. deltoides 'T26', P. deltoides 'Lux' × P. ussuriensis cl. 'U3', (P. tomentosa × P. bolleana) × (P. alba × P. glandulosa), (P. alba × P. tomentosa) × (P. alba × P. glandulosa ), and (P. alba × P. glandulosa 'No. 2') × P. tomentosa 'Lumao 50' were superior cross combinations with higher growth rate. Finally, 123 elite seedlings were selected for further test.
Jahr Hegdahl, Trine; Steinsland, Ingelin; Merete Tallaksen, Lena; Engeland, Kolbjørn
2016-04-01
Probabilistic flood forecasting has an added value for decision making. The Norwegian flood forecasting service is based on a flood forecasting model that run for 145 basins. Covering all of Norway the basins differ in both size and hydrological regime. Currently the flood forecasting is based on deterministic meteorological forecasts, and an auto-regressive procedure is used to achieve probabilistic forecasts. An alternative approach is to use meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts to quantify the uncertainty in forecasted streamflow. The hydrological ensembles are based on forcing a hydrological model with meteorological ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature. However, the ensembles of precipitation are often biased and the spread is too small, especially for the shortest lead times, i.e. they are not calibrated. These properties will, to some extent, propagate to hydrological ensembles, that most likely will be uncalibrated as well. Pre- and post-processing methods are commonly used to obtain calibrated meteorological and hydrological ensembles respectively. Quantitative studies showing the effect of the combined processing of the meteorological (pre-processing) and the hydrological (post-processing) ensembles are however few. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of pre- and post-processing on the skill of streamflow predictions, and we will especially investigate if the forecasting skill depends on lead-time, basin size and hydrological regime. This aim is achieved by applying the 51 medium-range ensemble forecast of precipitation and temperature provided by the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). These ensembles are used as input to the operational Norwegian flood forecasting model, both raw and pre-processed. Precipitation ensembles are calibrated using a zero-adjusted gamma distribution. Temperature ensembles are calibrated using a Gaussian distribution and altitude corrected by a constant gradient
Ensemble Enabled Weighted PageRank
Luo, Dongsheng; Hu, Renjun; Duan, Liang; Ma, Shuai
2016-01-01
This paper describes our solution for WSDM Cup 2016. Ranking the query independent importance of scholarly articles is a critical and challenging task, due to the heterogeneity and dynamism of entities involved. Our approach is called Ensemble enabled Weighted PageRank (EWPR). To do this, we first propose Time-Weighted PageRank that extends PageRank by introducing a time decaying factor. We then develop an ensemble method to assemble the authorities of the heterogeneous entities involved in scholarly articles. We finally propose to use external data sources to further improve the ranking accuracy. Our experimental study shows that our EWPR is a good choice for ranking scholarly articles.
Ensemble Eclipse: A Process for Prefab Development Environment for the Ensemble Project
Wallick, Michael N.; Mittman, David S.; Shams, Khawaja, S.; Bachmann, Andrew G.; Ludowise, Melissa
2013-01-01
This software simplifies the process of having to set up an Eclipse IDE programming environment for the members of the cross-NASA center project, Ensemble. It achieves this by assembling all the necessary add-ons and custom tools/preferences. This software is unique in that it allows developers in the Ensemble Project (approximately 20 to 40 at any time) across multiple NASA centers to set up a development environment almost instantly and work on Ensemble software. The software automatically has the source code repositories and other vital information and settings included. The Eclipse IDE is an open-source development framework. The NASA (Ensemble-specific) version of the software includes Ensemble-specific plug-ins as well as settings for the Ensemble project. This software saves developers the time and hassle of setting up a programming environment, making sure that everything is set up in the correct manner for Ensemble development. Existing software (i.e., standard Eclipse) requires an intensive setup process that is both time-consuming and error prone. This software is built once by a single user and tested, allowing other developers to simply download and use the software
Robert, Katleen; Jones, Daniel O. B.; Roberts, J. Murray; Huvenne, Veerle A. I.
2016-07-01
In the deep sea, biological data are often sparse; hence models capturing relationships between observed fauna and environmental variables (acquired via acoustic mapping techniques) are often used to produce full coverage species assemblage maps. Many statistical modelling techniques are being developed, but there remains a need to determine the most appropriate mapping techniques. Predictive habitat modelling approaches (redundancy analysis, maximum entropy and random forest) were applied to a heterogeneous section of seabed on Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic, for which landscape indices describing the spatial arrangement of habitat patches were calculated. The predictive maps were based on remotely operated vehicle (ROV) imagery transects high-resolution autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) sidescan backscatter maps. Area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy indicated similar performances for the three models tested, but performance varied by species assemblage, with the transitional species assemblage showing the weakest predictive performances. Spatial predictions of habitat suitability differed between statistical approaches, but niche similarity metrics showed redundancy analysis and random forest predictions to be most similar. As one statistical technique could not be found to outperform the others when all assemblages were considered, ensemble mapping techniques, where the outputs of many models are combined, were applied. They showed higher accuracy than any single model. Different statistical approaches for predictive habitat modelling possess varied strengths and weaknesses and by examining the outputs of a range of modelling techniques and their differences, more robust predictions, with better described variation and areas of uncertainties, can be achieved. As improvements to prediction outputs can be achieved without additional costly data collection, ensemble mapping approaches have clear value for spatial management.
Nondestructive analysis by combined X-ray tomography on a synchrotron radiation facility
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
DENG Biao; YU Xiaohan; LI Aiguo; XU Hongjie
2007-01-01
A nondestructive X-ray analysis technique combining transmission tomography, fluorescence tomography and Compton tomography based on synchrotron radiation is described. This novel technique will be an optional experimental technique at SSRF's hard X-ray micro-focusing beamline under construction at present. An experimental result of combined X-ray tomography is obtained in NE-5A station of PF. The reconstructed images of test objects are given.
Distance parameterization for efficient seismic history matching with the ensemble Kalman Filter
Leeuwenburgh, O.; Arts, R.
2012-01-01
The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), in combination with travel-time parameterization, provides a robust and flexible method for quantitative multi-model history matching to time-lapse seismic data. A disadvantage of the parameterization in terms of travel-times is that it requires simulation of model
Feng, Shangyuan; Lin, Duo; Lin, Juqiang; Huang, Zufang; Chen, Guannan; Li, Yongzeng; Huang, Shaohua; Zhao, Jianhua; Chen, Rong; Zeng, Haishan
2014-02-01
A method for saliva analysis combining membrane protein purification with silver nanoparticle-based surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) for non-invasive nasopharyngeal cancer detection was present in this paper. In this method, cellulose acetate membrane was used to obtain purified whole proteins from human saliva while removing other native saliva constituents and exogenous substances. The purified proteins were mixed with silver nanoparticle for SERS analysis. A diagnostic accuracy of 90.2% can be achieved by principal components analysis combined with linear discriminate analysis, for saliva samples obtained from patients with nasopharyngeal cancer (n = 62) and healthy volunteers (n = 30). This exploratory study demonstrated the potential for developing non-invasive, rapid saliva SERS analysis for nasopharyngeal cancer detection.
Theory of light-matter interactions in cascade and diamond type atomic ensembles
Jen, Hsiang-Hua
2011-01-01
In this thesis, we investigate the quantum mechanical interaction of light with matter in the form of a gas of ultracold atoms: the atomic ensemble. We present a theoretical analysis of two problems, which involve the interaction of quantized electromagnetic fields (called signal and idler) with the atomic ensemble (i) cascade two-photon emission in an atomic ladder configuration, and (ii) photon frequency conversion in an atomic diamond configuration. The motivation of these studies comes from potential applications in long-distance quantum communication where it is desirable to generate quantum correlations between telecommunication wavelength light fields and ground level atomic coherences. We develop a theory of correlated signal-idler pair correlation. The analysis is complicated by the possible generation of multiple excitations in the atomic ensemble. An analytical treatment is given in the limit of a single excitation assuming adiabatic laser excitations. The analysis predicts superradiant timescales ...
Distribution of level spacing ratios using one- plus two-body random matrix ensembles
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
N D Chavda
2015-02-01
Probability distribution (()) of the level spacing ratios has been introduced recently and is used to investigate many-body localization as well as to quantify the distance from integrability on finite size lattices. In this paper, we study the distribution of the ratio of consecutive level spacings using one-body plus two-body random matrix ensembles for finite interacting many-fermion and many-boson systems. () for these ensembles move steadily from the Poisson to the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) form as the two-body interaction strength is varied. Other related quantities are also used in the analysis to obtain critical strength c for the transition. The c values deduced using the () analysis are in good agreement with the results obtained using the nearest neighbour spacing distribution (NNSD) analysis.
A unified MGF-based capacity analysis of diversity combiners over generalized fading channels
Yilmaz, Ferkan
2012-03-01
Unified exact ergodic capacity results for L-branch coherent diversity combiners including equal-gain combining (EGC) and maximal-ratio combining (MRC) are not known. This paper develops a novel generic framework for the capacity analysis of L-branch EGC/MRC over generalized fading channels. The framework is used to derive new results for the gamma-shadowed generalized Nakagami-m fading model which can be a suitable model for the fading environments encountered by high frequency (60 GHz and above) communications. The mathematical formalism is illustrated with some selected numerical and simulation results confirming the correctness of our newly proposed framework. © 2012 IEEE.
Sanchez, David Garcia; Musy, Marjorie; Bourges, Bernard
2012-01-01
Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in the understanding of complex models. It helps to identify influence of input parameters in relation to the outputs. It can be also a tool to understand the behavior of the model and then can help in its development stage. This study aims to analyze and illustrate the potential usefulness of combining first and second-order sensitivity analysis, applied to a building energy model (ESP-r). Through the example of a collective building, a sensitivity analysis is performed using the method of elementary effects (also known as Morris method), including an analysis of interactions between the input parameters (second order analysis). Importance of higher-order analysis to better support the results of first order analysis, highlighted especially in such complex model. Several aspects are tackled to implement efficiently the multi-order sensitivity analysis: interval size of the variables, management of non-linearity, usefulness of various outputs.
Ensemble dispersion forecasting - Part 1. Concept, approach and indicators
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; Klug, W.;
2004-01-01
The paper presents an approach to the treatment and analysis of long-range transport and dispersion model forecasts. Long-range is intended here as the space scale of the order of few thousands of kilometers known also as continental scale. The method is called multi-model ensemble dispersion...... proposed are particularly suited for long-range transport and dispersion models although they can also be applied to short-range dispersion and weather fields. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
, citizens in Nuuk and other citizens in Greenland) are examined and compared. The cost-benefit analysis of the three airport alternatives includes impacts like travel time (for business and local travellers), waiting time, drawback of shifts, regularity, out of pocket costs, operating costs...... down a problem into its constituent parts in order to better understand the problem and consequently arrive at a decision. However, while MCA opens up for the possibility to include non-market impacts, it does not provide the decision makers with guidance combining the CBA with MCA. In the paper...... different methods for combining cost-benefit analysis and multi-criteria analysis are examined and compared and a software system is presented. The software system gives the decision makers some possibilities regarding preference analysis, sensitivity and risk analysis. The aim of the software...
NYYD Ensemble ja Riho Sibul / Anneli Remme
Remme, Anneli, 1968-
2001-01-01
Gavin Bryarsi teos "Jesus' Blood Never Failed Me Yet" NYYD Ensemble'i ja Riho Sibula esituses 27. detsembril Pauluse kirikus Tartus ja 28. detsembril Rootsi- Mihkli kirikus Tallinnas. Kaastegevad Tartu Ülikooli Kammerkoor (Tartus) ja kammerkoor Voces Musicales (Tallinnas). Kunstiline juht Olari Elts
Canonical Ensemble Model for Black Hole Radiation
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Jingyi Zhang
2014-09-01
In this paper, a canonical ensemble model for the black hole quantum tunnelling radiation is introduced. In this model the probability distribution function corresponding to the emission shell is calculated to second order. The formula of pressure and internal energy of the thermal system is modified, and the fundamental equation of thermodynamics is also discussed.
Locally Accessible Information from Multipartite Ensembles
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
SONG Wei
2009-01-01
We present a universal Holevo-like upper bound on the locally accessible information for arbitrary multipartite ensembles.This bound allows us to analyze the indistinguishability of a set of orthogonal states under local operations and classical communication.We also derive the upper bound for the capacity of distributed dense coding with multipartite senders and multipartite receivers.
Statistical theory of hierarchical avalanche ensemble
Olemskoi, Alexander I.
1999-01-01
The statistical ensemble of avalanche intensities is considered to investigate diffusion in ultrametric space of hierarchically subordinated avalanches. The stationary intensity distribution and the steady-state current are obtained. The critical avalanche intensity needed to initiate the global avalanche formation is calculated depending on noise intensity. The large time asymptotic for the probability of the global avalanche appearance is derived.
Eigenstate Gibbs ensemble in integrable quantum systems
Nandy, Sourav; Sen, Arnab; Das, Arnab; Dhar, Abhishek
2016-12-01
The eigenstate thermalization hypothesis conjectures that for a thermodynamically large system in one of its energy eigenstates, the reduced density matrix describing any finite subsystem is determined solely by a set of relevant conserved quantities. In a chaotic quantum system, only the energy is expected to play that role and hence eigenstates appear locally thermal. Integrable systems, on the other hand, possess an extensive number of such conserved quantities and therefore the reduced density matrix requires specification of all the corresponding parameters (generalized Gibbs ensemble). However, here we show by unbiased statistical sampling of the individual eigenstates with a given finite energy density that the local description of an overwhelming majority of these states of even such an integrable system is actually Gibbs-like, i.e., requires only the energy density of the eigenstate. Rare eigenstates that cannot be represented by the Gibbs ensemble can also be sampled efficiently by our method and their local properties are then shown to be described by appropriately truncated generalized Gibbs ensembles. We further show that the presence of these rare eigenstates differentiates the model from the chaotic case and leads to the system being described by a generalized Gibbs ensemble at long time under a unitary dynamics following a sudden quench, even when the initial state is a typical (Gibbs-like) eigenstate of the prequench Hamiltonian.
Marking up lattice QCD configurations and ensembles
Coddington, P; Maynard, C M; Pleiter, D; Yoshié, T
2007-01-01
QCDml is an XML-based markup language designed for sharing QCD configurations and ensembles world-wide via the International Lattice Data Grid (ILDG). Based on the latest release, we present key ingredients of the QCDml in order to provide some starting points for colleagues in this community to markup valuable configurations and submit them to the ILDG.
Finite strip method combined with other numerical methods for the analysis of plates
Cheung, M. S.; Li, Wenchang
1992-09-01
Finite plate strips are combined with finite elements or boundary elements in the analysis of rectangular plates with some minor irregularities such as openings, skew edges, etc. The plate is divided into regular and irregular regions. The regular region is analyzed by the finite strip method while the irregular one is analyzed by the finite element or boundary element method. A special transition element and strip are developed in order to connect the both regions. Numerical examples will show the accuracy and efficiency of this combined analysis.
Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble
Mulholland, David P.; Haines, Keith; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David
2016-10-01
Perturbed physics ensembles have often been used to analyse long-timescale climate model behaviour, but have been used less often to study model processes on shorter timescales. We combine a transient perturbed physics ensemble with a set of initialised forecasts to deduce regional process errors present in the standard HadCM3 model, which cause the model to drift in the early stages of the forecast. First, it is shown that the transient drifts in the perturbed physics ensembles can be used to recover quantitatively the parameters that were perturbed. The parameters which exert most influence on the drifts vary regionally, but upper ocean mixing and atmospheric convective processes are particularly important on the 1-month timescale. Drifts in the initialised forecasts are then used to recover the `equivalent parameter perturbations', which allow identification of the physical processes that may be at fault in the HadCM3 representation of the real world. Most parameters show positive and negative adjustments in different regions, indicating that standard HadCM3 values represent a global compromise. The method is verified by correcting an unusually widespread positive bias in the strength of wind-driven ocean mixing, with forecast drifts reduced in a large number of areas as a result. This method could therefore be used to improve the skill of initialised climate model forecasts by reducing model biases through regional adjustments to physical processes, either by tuning or targeted parametrisation refinement. Further, such regionally tuned models might also significantly outperform standard climate models, with global parameter configurations, in longer-term climate studies.
Petrák, O; Zelinka, T; Štrauch, B; Rosa, J; Šomlóová, Z; Indra, T; Turková, H; Holaj, R; Widimský, J
2016-01-01
The aim of the study was to analyze the clinical use of different types of combination therapy in a large sample of consecutive patients with uncontrolled hypertension referred to Hypertension Centre. We performed a retrospective analysis of combination antihypertensive therapy in 1254 consecutive patients with uncontrolled hypertension receiving at least triple-combination antihypertensive therapy. Among the most prescribed antihypertensive classes were renin-angiotensin blockers (96.8%), calcium channel blockers (82.5%), diuretics (82.0%), beta-blockers (73.0%), centrally acting drugs (56.0%) and urapidil (24.1%). Least prescribed were spironolactone (22.2%) and alpha-1-blockers (17.1%). Thiazide/thiazide-like diuretics were underdosed in more than two-thirds of patients. Furosemide was prescribed in 14.3% of patients treated with diuretics, while only indicated in 3.9%. Inappropriate combination therapy was found in 40.4% of patients. Controversial dual and higher blockade of renin-angiotensin system occurred in 25.2%. Incorrect use of a combination of two antihypertensive drugs with the similar mechanism of action was found in 28.1%, most commonly a combination of two drugs with central mechanism (13.5%). In conclusion, use of controversial or incorrect combinations of drugs in uncontrolled hypertension is common. Diuretics are frequently underdosed and spironolactone remains neglected in general practice. The improper combination of antihypertensive drugs may contribute to uncontrolled hypertension.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiaming Liu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Many downscaling techniques have been developed in the past few years for projection of station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change. To improve the simulation accuracy of downscaling methods, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA method combined with three statistical downscaling methods, which are support vector machine (SVM, BCC/RCG-Weather Generators (BCC/RCG-WG, and Statistics Downscaling Model (SDSM, is proposed in this study, based on the statistical relationship between the larger scale climate predictors and observed precipitation in upper Hanjiang River Basin (HRB. The statistical analysis of three performance criteria (the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, the coefficient of correlation, and the relative error shows that the performance of ensemble downscaling method based on BMA for rainfall is better than that of each single statistical downscaling method. Moreover, the performance for the runoff modelled by the SWAT rainfall-runoff model using the downscaled daily rainfall by four methods is also compared, and the ensemble downscaling method has better simulation accuracy. The ensemble downscaling technology based on BMA can provide scientific basis for the study of runoff response to climate change.
Ensemble-based Kalman Filters in Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Zhaoxia PU; Joshua HACKER
2009-01-01
This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...
A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2015-12-15
Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).
An Ensemble of 2D Convolutional Neural Networks for Tumor Segmentation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lyksborg, Mark; Puonti, Oula; Agn, Mikael
2015-01-01
Accurate tumor segmentation plays an important role in radiosurgery planning and the assessment of radiotherapy treatment efficacy. In this paper we propose a method combining an ensemble of 2D convolutional neural networks for doing a volumetric segmentation of magnetic resonance images....... The segmentation is done in three steps; first the full tumor region, is segmented from the background by a voxel-wise merging of the decisions of three networks learned from three orthogonal planes, next the segmentation is refined using a cellular automaton-based seed growing method known as growcut. Finally......, within-tumor sub-regions are segmented using an additional ensemble of networks trained for the task. We demonstrate the method on the MICCAI Brain Tumor Segmentation Challenge dataset of 2014, and show improved segmentation accuracy compared to an axially trained 2D network and an ensemble segmentation...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baraldi, Piero, E-mail: piero.baraldi@polimi.i [Dipartimento di Energia - Sezione Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano (Italy); Razavi-Far, Roozbeh [Dipartimento di Energia - Sezione Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Dipartimento di Energia - Sezione Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano (Italy); Ecole Centrale Paris-Supelec, Paris (France)
2011-04-15
An important requirement for the practical implementation of empirical diagnostic systems is the capability of classifying transients in all plant operational conditions. The present paper proposes an approach based on an ensemble of classifiers for incrementally learning transients under different operational conditions. New classifiers are added to the ensemble where transients occurring in new operational conditions are not satisfactorily classified. The construction of the ensemble is made by bagging; the base classifier is a supervised Fuzzy C Means (FCM) classifier whose outcomes are combined by majority voting. The incremental learning procedure is applied to the identification of simulated transients in the feedwater system of a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) under different reactor power levels.
Zhang, Yungang; Zhang, Bailing; Lu, Wenjin
2011-06-01
Histological image is important for diagnosis of breast cancer. In this paper, we present a novel automatic breaset cancer classification scheme based on histological images. The image features are extracted using the Curvelet Transform, statistics of Gray Level Co-occurence Matrix (GLCM) and Completed Local Binary Patterns (CLBP), respectively. The three different features are combined together and used for classification. A classifier ensemble approach, called Random Subspace Ensemble (RSE), are used to select and aggregate a set of base neural network classifiers for classification. The proposed multiple features and random subspace ensemble offer the classification rate 95.22% on a publically available breast cancer image dataset, which compares favorably with the previously published result 93.4%.
The role of model dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter performance for chaotic systems
Ng, G.-H.C.; McLaughlin, D.; Entekhabi, D.; Ahanin, A.
2011-01-01
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is susceptible to losing track of observations, or 'diverging', when applied to large chaotic systems such as atmospheric and ocean models. Past studies have demonstrated the adverse impact of sampling error during the filter's update step. We examine how system dynamics affect EnKF performance, and whether the absence of certain dynamic features in the ensemble may lead to divergence. The EnKF is applied to a simple chaotic model, and ensembles are checked against singular vectors of the tangent linear model, corresponding to short-term growth and Lyapunov vectors, corresponding to long-term growth. Results show that the ensemble strongly aligns itself with the subspace spanned by unstable Lyapunov vectors. Furthermore, the filter avoids divergence only if the full linearized long-term unstable subspace is spanned. However, short-term dynamics also become important as non-linearity in the system increases. Non-linear movement prevents errors in the long-term stable subspace from decaying indefinitely. If these errors then undergo linear intermittent growth, a small ensemble may fail to properly represent all important modes, causing filter divergence. A combination of long and short-term growth dynamics are thus critical to EnKF performance. These findings can help in developing practical robust filters based on model dynamics. ?? 2011 The Authors Tellus A ?? 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.
Baran, Sándor; Möller, Annette
2017-02-01
Forecast ensembles are typically employed to account for prediction uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models. However, ensembles often exhibit biases and dispersion errors, thus they require statistical post-processing to improve their predictive performance. Two popular univariate post-processing models are the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). In the last few years, increased interest has emerged in developing multivariate post-processing models, incorporating dependencies between weather quantities, such as for example a bivariate distribution for wind vectors or even a more general setting allowing to combine any types of weather variables. In line with a recently proposed approach to model temperature and wind speed jointly by a bivariate BMA model, this paper introduces an EMOS model for these weather quantities based on a bivariate truncated normal distribution. The bivariate EMOS model is applied to temperature and wind speed forecasts of the 8-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble and the 11-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and its predictive performance is compared to the performance of the bivariate BMA model and a multivariate Gaussian copula approach, post-processing the margins with univariate EMOS. While the predictive skills of the compared methods are similar, the bivariate EMOS model requires considerably lower computation times than the bivariate BMA method.
Metal Oxide Gas Sensor Drift Compensation Using a Two-Dimensional Classifier Ensemble
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hang Liu
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Sensor drift is the most challenging problem in gas sensing at present. We propose a novel two-dimensional classifier ensemble strategy to solve the gas discrimination problem, regardless of the gas concentration, with high accuracy over extended periods of time. This strategy is appropriate for multi-class classifiers that consist of combinations of pairwise classifiers, such as support vector machines. We compare the performance of the strategy with those of competing methods in an experiment based on a public dataset that was compiled over a period of three years. The experimental results demonstrate that the two-dimensional ensemble outperforms the other methods considered. Furthermore, we propose a pre-aging process inspired by that applied to the sensors to improve the stability of the classifier ensemble. The experimental results demonstrate that the weight of each multi-class classifier model in the ensemble remains fairly static before and after the addition of new classifier models to the ensemble, when a pre-aging procedure is applied.
Predicting the Severity of Breast Masses with Ensemble of Bayesian Classifiers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alaa M. Elsayad
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Problem statement: This study evaluated two different Bayesian classifiers; tree augmented Naive Bayes and Markov blanket estimation networks in order to build an ensemble model for prediction the severity of breast masses. The objective of the proposed algorithm was to help physicians in their decisions to perform a breast biopsy on a suspicious lesion seen in a mammogram image or to perform a short term follow-up examination instead. While, mammography is the most effective and available tool for breast cancer screening, mammograms do not detect all breast cancers. Also, a small portion of mammograms show that a cancer could probably be present when it is not (called a false-positive result. Approach: Apply ensemble of Bayesian classifiers to predict the severity of breast masses. Bayesian classifiers had been selected as they were able to produce probability estimates rather than predictions. These estimated allow predictions to be ranked and their expected costs to be minimized. The proposed ensemble used the confidence scores where the highest confidence wins to combine the predictions of individual classifiers. Results: The prediction accuracies of Bayesian ensemble was benchmarked against the well-known multilayer perceptron neural network and the ensemble had achieved a remarkable performance with 91.83% accuracy on training subset and 90.63% of test one and outperformed the neural network model. Conclusion: Experimental results showed that the Bayesian classifiers are competitive techniques in the problem of prediction the severity of breast masses.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jarmer, Hanne Østergaard; Christiansen, Freddy Bugge
1981-01-01
Population samples including mother-offspring combinations provide information on the selection components: zygotic selection, sexual selection, gametic seletion and fecundity selection, on the mating pattern, and on the deviation from linkage equilibrium among the loci studied. The theory...... for the analysis of a sample consisting of adult individuals including combinations of a mother and one randomly chosen offspring in the case of n polymorphic autosomal loci with ma alleles at the ath locus, a = 1, 2,…, n, is developed for an organism with discrete non-overlapping generations. In this general...... analysis complete determination of the genotypes is assumed. The modifications in the analysis for the case n = 2 and m1 = m2 = 2 when the two double heterozygotes cannot be separated are discussed, and the analysis is illustrated by data from a population of Zoarces viviparus (a marine teleost)....
Ficchi, Andrea; Raso, Luciano; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Dorchies, David; Malaterre, Pierre-Olivier; Pianosi, Francesca; Van Overloop, Peter-Jules
2013-04-01
The reservoirs on the Seine River, upstream of Paris, are regulated with the objective of reducing floods and supporting low flows. The current management of these reservoirs is empirical, reactive, and decentralized, mainly based on filling curves, constructed from an analysis of historical floods and low flows. When inflows are significantly different from their seasonal average, this management strategy proves inefficient. Climate change is also a challenge, for the possible modification of future hydrologic conditions. To improve such management strategy, in this study we investigate the use of Tree-Based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC), a proactive and centralized method that uses all the information available in real-time, including ensemble weather forecasting. In TB-MPC, a tree is generated from an ensemble of weather forecast. The tree structure summarizes the information contained in the ensemble, specifying the time, along the optimization horizon, when forecast trajectories diverge and thus uncertainty is expected to be resolved. This information is then used in the model predictive control framework. The TB-MPC controller is implemented in combination with the integrated model of the water system, including a semi-distributed hydrologic model of the watershed, a simplified hydraulic model of the river network, and the four reservoir models. Optimization takes into account the cost associated to floods and low-flows, and a penalty cost based on the final reservoir storages. The performances of the TB-MPC controller will be simulated and compared with those of deterministic MPC and with the actual management performances. This work is part of the Climaware European project (2010-2013) set up to develop and to assess measures for sustainable water resources management regarding adaptation to climate change.
一种集成式不确定推理方法研究%Research on an Ensemble Method of Uncertainty Reasoning
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
贺怀清; 李建伏
2011-01-01
Ensemble learning is a machine learning paradigm where multiple models are strategically generated and combined to obtain better predictive performance than a single learning method.It was proven that ensemble learning is feasible and tends to yield better results.Uncertainty reasoning is one of the important directions in artificial intelligence.Various uncertainty reasoning methods have been developed and all have their own advantages and disadvantages.Motivated by ensemble learning, an ensemble method of uncertainty reasoning was proposed.The main idea of the new method is in accordance with the basic framework of ensemble learning,where multiple uncertainty reasoning methods is used in time and the result of various reasoning methods is integrated by some rules as the final result.Finally, theoretical analysis and experimental tests show that the ensemble uncertainty reasoning method is effective and feasible.%集成学习是采用某种规则把一系列学习器的结果进行整合以获得比单个学习器更好的学习效果的一种机器学习方法.研究表明集成学习是可行的,能取得比传统学习方法更好的性能.不确定推理是人工智能的重要研究方向之一,目前已经开发出了多种不确定推理方法,这些方法在实际应用中各有优缺点.借鉴集成学习,提出一种集成式不确定推理方法,其基本思想是按照一定的策略集成多种不确定推理方法,以提高推理的准确性.理论分析和实验结果验证了方法的合理性和可行性.
Meta-Analysis of Pathway Enrichment: Combining Independent and Dependent Omics Data Sets
Kaever, Alexander; Landesfeind, Manuel; Feussner, Kirstin; Morgenstern, Burkhard; Feussner, Ivo; Meinicke, Peter
2014-01-01
A major challenge in current systems biology is the combination and integrative analysis of large data sets obtained from different high-throughput omics platforms, such as mass spectrometry based Metabolomics and Proteomics or DNA microarray or RNA-seq-based Transcriptomics. Especially in the case of non-targeted Metabolomics experiments, where it is often impossible to unambiguously map ion features from mass spectrometry analysis to metabolites, the integration of more reliable omics techn...
Anton, Roman
2015-01-01
INTRODUCTION Porter's Five-Forces, Porter's Diamond, PESTEL, the 6th-Forths, and Humphrey's SWOT analysis are among the most important and popular concepts taught in business schools around the world. A new integrated strategy framework (ISF) combines all major concepts. PURPOSE Porter's Five-Forces, Porter's Diamond, PESTEL, the 6th-Forths, and Humphrey's SWOT analysis are among the most important and popular concepts taught in business schools around the world. A new integrated strategy fr...
Ensembles of signal transduction models using Pareto Optimal Ensemble Techniques (POETs).
Song, Sang Ok; Chakrabarti, Anirikh; Varner, Jeffrey D
2010-07-01
Mathematical modeling of complex gene expression programs is an emerging tool for understanding disease mechanisms. However, identification of large models sometimes requires training using qualitative, conflicting or even contradictory data sets. One strategy to address this challenge is to estimate experimentally constrained model ensembles using multiobjective optimization. In this study, we used Pareto Optimal Ensemble Techniques (POETs) to identify a family of proof-of-concept signal transduction models. POETs integrate Simulated Annealing (SA) with Pareto optimality to identify models near the optimal tradeoff surface between competing training objectives. We modeled a prototypical-signaling network using mass-action kinetics within an ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework (64 ODEs in total). The true model was used to generate synthetic immunoblots from which the POET algorithm identified the 117 unknown model parameters. POET generated an ensemble of signaling models, which collectively exhibited population-like behavior. For example, scaled gene expression levels were approximately normally distributed over the ensemble following the addition of extracellular ligand. Also, the ensemble recovered robust and fragile features of the true model, despite significant parameter uncertainty. Taken together, these results suggest that experimentally constrained model ensembles could capture qualitatively important network features without exact parameter information.
A Synergy Method to Improve Ensemble Weather Predictions and Differential SAR Interferograms
Ulmer, Franz-Georg; Adam, Nico
2015-11-01
A compensation of atmospheric effects is essential for mm-sensitivity in differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) techniques. Numerical weather predictions are used to compensate these disturbances allowing a reduction in the number of required radar scenes. Practically, predictions are solutions of partial differential equations which never can be precise due to model or initialisation uncertainties. In order to deal with the chaotic nature of the solutions, ensembles of predictions are computed. From a stochastic point of view, the ensemble mean is the expected prediction, if all ensemble members are equally likely. This corresponds to the typical assumption that all ensemble members are physically correct solutions of the set of partial differential equations. DInSAR allows adding to this knowledge. Observations of refractivity can now be utilised to check the likelihood of a solution and to weight the respective ensemble member to estimate a better expected prediction. The objective of the paper is to show the synergy between ensemble weather predictions and differential interferometric atmospheric correction. We demonstrate a new method first to compensate better for the atmospheric effect in DInSAR and second to estimate an improved numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble mean. Practically, a least squares fit of predicted atmospheric effects with respect to a differential interferogram is computed. The coefficients of this fit are interpreted as likelihoods and used as weights for the weighted ensemble mean. Finally, the derived weighted prediction has minimal expected quadratic errors which is a better solution compared to the straightforward best-fitting ensemble member. Furthermore, we propose an extension of the algorithm which avoids the systematic bias caused by deformations. It makes this technique suitable for time series analysis, e.g. persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI). We validate the algorithm using the well known
Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh;
2015-01-01
Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lynn S. Adams
2006-01-01
Full Text Available Herbal medicines are often combinations of botanical extracts that are assumed to have additive or synergistic effects. The purpose of this investigation was to compare the effect of individual botanical extracts with combinations of extracts on prostate cell viability. We then modeled the interactions between botanical extracts in combination isobolographically. Scutellaria baicalensis, Rabdosia rubescens, Panax-pseudo ginseng, Dendranthema morifolium, Glycyrrhiza uralensis and Serenoa repens were collected, taxonomically identified and extracts prepared. Effects of the extracts on cell viability were quantitated in prostate cell lines using a luminescent ATP cell viability assay. Combinations of two botanical extracts of the four most active extracts were tested in the 22Rv1 cell line and their interactions assessed using isobolographic analysis. Each extract significantly inhibited the proliferation of prostate cell lines in a time- and dose-dependent manner except repens. The most active extracts, baicalensis, D. morifolium, G. uralensis and R. rubescens were tested as two-extract combinations. baicalensis and D. morifolium when combined were additive with a trend toward synergy, whereas D. morifolium and R. rubescens together were additive. The remaining two-extract combinations showed antagonism. The four extracts together were significantly more effective than the two-by-two combinations and the individual extracts alone. Combining the four herbal extracts significantly enhanced their activity in the cell lines tested compared with extracts alone. The less predictable nature of the two-way combinations suggests a need for careful characterization of the effects of each individual herb based on their intended use.
Reliability analysis of production ships with emphasis on load combination and ultimate strength
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Xiaozhi
1995-05-01
This thesis deals with ultimate strength and reliability analysis of offshore production ships, accounting for stochastic load combinations, using a typical North Sea production ship for reference. A review of methods for structural reliability analysis is presented. Probabilistic methods are established for the still water and vertical wave bending moments. Linear stress analysis of a midships transverse frame is carried out, four different finite element models are assessed. Upon verification of the general finite element code ABAQUS with a typical ship transverse girder example, for which test results are available, ultimate strength analysis of the reference transverse frame is made to obtain the ultimate load factors associated with the specified pressure loads in Det norske Veritas Classification rules for ships and rules for production vessels. Reliability analysis is performed to develop appropriate design criteria for the transverse structure. It is found that the transverse frame failure mode does not seem to contribute to the system collapse. Ultimate strength analysis of the longitudinally stiffened panels is performed, accounting for the combined biaxial and lateral loading. Reliability based design of the longitudinally stiffened bottom and deck panels is accomplished regarding the collapse mode under combined biaxial and lateral loads. 107 refs., 76 refs., 37 tabs.
Coupling Ensemble Kalman Filter with Four-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Fuqing ZHANG; Meng ZHANG; James A. HANSEN
2009-01-01
This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system (4DVAR) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme (E4DVAR) benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence: the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect-and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.
The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble system: validation of the methodology and verification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. Marsigli
2005-01-01
Full Text Available The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running every day at ECMWF since November 2002. A number of runs of the non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM are available every day, nested on members of the ECMWF global ensemble. The limited-area ensemble forecasts range up to 120h and LM-based probabilistic products are disseminated to several national and regional weather services. Some changes of the operational suite have recently been made, on the basis of the results of a statistical analysis of the methodology. The analysis is presented in this paper, showing the benefit of increasing the number of ensemble members. The system has been designed to have a probabilistic support at the mesoscale, focusing the attention on extreme precipitation events. In this paper, the performance of COSMO-LEPS in forecasting precipitation is presented. An objective verification in terms of probabilistic indices is made, using a dense network of observations covering a part of the COSMO domain. The system is compared with ECMWF EPS, showing an improvement of the limited-area high-resolution system with respect to the global ensemble system in the forecast of high precipitation values. The impact of the use of different schemes for the parametrisation of the convection in the limited-area model is also assessed, showing that this have a minor impact with respect to run the model with different initial and boundary condition.
Extending the square root method to account for additive forecast noise in ensemble methods
Raanes, Patrick N; Bertino, Laurent
2015-01-01
A square root approach is considered for the problem of accounting for model noise in the forecast step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and related algorithms. The primary aim is to replace the method of simulated, pseudo-random, additive noise so as to eliminate the associated sampling errors. The core method is based on the analysis step of ensemble square root filters, and consists in the deterministic computation of a transform matrix. The theoretical advantages regarding dynamical consistency are surveyed, applying equally well to the square root method in the analysis step. A fundamental problem due to the limited size of the ensemble subspace is discussed, and novel solutions that complement the core method are suggested and studied. Benchmarks from twin experiments with simple, low-order dynamics indicate improved performance over standard approaches such as additive, simulated noise and multiplicative inflation.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Wenfeng; YANG
2015-01-01
Over the years,the logistics development in Tibet has fallen behind the transport. Since the opening of Qinghai-Tibet Railway in2006,the opportunity for development of modern logistics has been brought to Tibet. The logistics demand analysis and forecasting is a prerequisite for regional logistics planning. By establishing indicator system for logistics demand of agricultural products,agricultural product logistics principal component regression model,gray forecasting model,BP neural network forecasting model are built. Because of the single model’s limitations,quadratic-linear programming model is used to build combination forecasting model to predict the logistics demand scale of agricultural products in Tibet over the next five years. The empirical analysis results show that combination forecasting model is superior to single forecasting model,and it has higher precision,so combination forecasting model will have much wider application foreground and development potential in the field of logistics.
Kolkman, A.; Schriks, M.; Brand, W; Bäuerlein, P.S.; van der Kooi, M.M.E.; van Doorn, R.H.; Emke, E.; Reus, A.; van der Linden, S.; de Voogt, P.; Heringa, M.B.
2013-01-01
The combination of in vitro bioassays and chemical screening can provide a powerful toolbox to determine biologically relevant compounds in water extracts. In this study, a sample preparation method is evaluated for the suitability for both chemical analysis and in vitro bioassays. A set of 39 chemi
Combined sequence-based and genetic mapping analysis of complex traits in outbred rats
Baud, Amelie; Hermsen, Roel; Guryev, Victor; Stridh, Pernilla; Graham, Delyth; McBride, Martin W.; Foroud, Tatiana; Calderari, Sophie; Diez, Margarita; Ockinger, Johan; Beyeen, Amennai D.; Gillett, Alan; Abdelmagid, Nada; Guerreiro-Cacais, Andre Ortlieb; Jagodic, Maja; Tuncel, Jonatan; Norin, Ulrika; Beattie, Elisabeth; Huynh, Ngan; Miller, William H.; Koller, Daniel L.; Alam, Imranul; Falak, Samreen; Osborne-Pellegrin, Mary; Martinez-Membrives, Esther; Canete, Toni; Blazquez, Gloria; Vicens-Costa, Elia; Mont-Cardona, Carme; Diaz-Moran, Sira; Tobena, Adolf; Hummel, Oliver; Zelenika, Diana; Saar, Kathrin; Patone, Giannino; Bauerfeind, Anja; Bihoreau, Marie-Therese; Heinig, Matthias; Lee, Young-Ae; Rintisch, Carola; Schulz, Herbert; Wheeler, David A.; Worley, Kim C.; Muzny, Donna M.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Lathrop, Mark; Lansu, Nico; Toonen, Pim; Ruzius, Frans Paul; de Bruijn, Ewart; Hauser, Heidi; Adams, David J.; Keane, Thomas; Atanur, Santosh S.; Aitman, Tim J.; Flicek, Paul; Malinauskas, Tomas; Jones, E. Yvonne; Ekman, Diana; Lopez-Aumatell, Regina; Dominiczak, Anna F.; Johannesson, Martina; Holmdahl, Rikard; Olsson, Tomas; Gauguier, Dominique; Hubner, Norbert; Fernandez-Teruel, Alberto; Cuppen, Edwin; Mott, Richard; Flint, Jonathan
2013-01-01
Genetic mapping on fully sequenced individuals is transforming understanding of the relationship between molecular variation and variation in complex traits. Here we report a combined sequence and genetic mapping analysis in outbred rats that maps 355 quantitative trait loci for 122 phenotypes. We i