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Sample records for analysis combining ensemble

  1. ArrayMining: a modular web-application for microarray analysis combining ensemble and consensus methods with cross-study normalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasnogor Natalio

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical analysis of DNA microarray data provides a valuable diagnostic tool for the investigation of genetic components of diseases. To take advantage of the multitude of available data sets and analysis methods, it is desirable to combine both different algorithms and data from different studies. Applying ensemble learning, consensus clustering and cross-study normalization methods for this purpose in an almost fully automated process and linking different analysis modules together under a single interface would simplify many microarray analysis tasks. Results We present ArrayMining.net, a web-application for microarray analysis that provides easy access to a wide choice of feature selection, clustering, prediction, gene set analysis and cross-study normalization methods. In contrast to other microarray-related web-tools, multiple algorithms and data sets for an analysis task can be combined using ensemble feature selection, ensemble prediction, consensus clustering and cross-platform data integration. By interlinking different analysis tools in a modular fashion, new exploratory routes become available, e.g. ensemble sample classification using features obtained from a gene set analysis and data from multiple studies. The analysis is further simplified by automatic parameter selection mechanisms and linkage to web tools and databases for functional annotation and literature mining. Conclusion ArrayMining.net is a free web-application for microarray analysis combining a broad choice of algorithms based on ensemble and consensus methods, using automatic parameter selection and integration with annotation databases.

  2. Systematic Analysis of Quantitative Logic Model Ensembles Predicts Drug Combination Effects on Cell Signaling Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-27

    bovine serum albumin (BSA) diluted to the amount corresponding to that in the media of the stimulated cells. Phospho-JNK comprises two isoforms whose...information accompanies this paper on the CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology website (http://www.wileyonlinelibrary.com/psp4) Systematic Analysis of Quantitative Logic Model Morris et al. 553 www.wileyonlinelibrary/psp4

  3. A Combined Methodology to Eliminate Artifacts in Multichannel Electrogastrogram Based on Independent Component Analysis and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengottuvel, S; Khan, Pathan Fayaz; Mariyappa, N; Patel, Rajesh; Saipriya, S; Gireesan, K

    2018-06-01

    Cutaneous measurements of electrogastrogram (EGG) signals are heavily contaminated by artifacts due to cardiac activity, breathing, motion artifacts, and electrode drifts whose effective elimination remains an open problem. A common methodology is proposed by combining independent component analysis (ICA) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to denoise gastric slow-wave signals in multichannel EGG data. Sixteen electrodes are fixed over the upper abdomen to measure the EGG signals under three gastric conditions, namely, preprandial, postprandial immediately, and postprandial 2 h after food for three healthy subjects and a subject with a gastric disorder. Instantaneous frequencies of intrinsic mode functions that are obtained by applying the EEMD technique are analyzed to individually identify and remove each of the artifacts. A critical investigation on the proposed ICA-EEMD method reveals its ability to provide a higher attenuation of artifacts and lower distortion than those obtained by the ICA-EMD method and conventional techniques, like bandpass and adaptive filtering. Characteristic changes in the slow-wave frequencies across the three gastric conditions could be determined from the denoised signals for all the cases. The results therefore encourage the use of the EEMD-based technique for denoising gastric signals to be used in clinical practice.

  4. Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kann

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011, provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min and spatial (1 km resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011. The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR which yields a statistical mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion for Gaussian distributed continuous

  5. A Theoretical Analysis of Why Hybrid Ensembles Work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Wei Hsu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Inspired by the group decision making process, ensembles or combinations of classifiers have been found favorable in a wide variety of application domains. Some researchers propose to use the mixture of two different types of classification algorithms to create a hybrid ensemble. Why does such an ensemble work? The question remains. Following the concept of diversity, which is one of the fundamental elements of the success of ensembles, we conduct a theoretical analysis of why hybrid ensembles work, connecting using different algorithms to accuracy gain. We also conduct experiments on classification performance of hybrid ensembles of classifiers created by decision tree and naïve Bayes classification algorithms, each of which is a top data mining algorithm and often used to create non-hybrid ensembles. Therefore, through this paper, we provide a complement to the theoretical foundation of creating and using hybrid ensembles.

  6. Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Máté, Gabriell; Heermann, Dieter

    2014-04-01

    As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.

  7. New technique for ensemble dressing combining Multimodel SuperEnsemble and precipitation PDF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, D.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique (Krishnamurti et al., Science 285, 1548-1550, 1999) is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the difference between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied successfully on the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure (Cane and Milelli, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 15, 2, 2006), the Multimodel SuperEnsemble gives good results also when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present our methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts applied on a wide spectrum of results over Piemonte very dense non-GTS weather station network. We will focus particularly on an accurate statistical method for bias correction and on the ensemble dressing in agreement with the observed precipitation forecast-conditioned PDF. Acknowledgement: this work is supported by the Italian Civil Defence Department.

  8. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

  9. Non-linear multivariate and multiscale monitoring and signal denoising strategy using Kernel Principal Component Analysis combined with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Žvokelj, Matej; Zupan, Samo; Prebil, Ivan

    2011-10-01

    The article presents a novel non-linear multivariate and multiscale statistical process monitoring and signal denoising method which combines the strengths of the Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) non-linear multivariate monitoring approach with the benefits of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) to handle multiscale system dynamics. The proposed method which enables us to cope with complex even severe non-linear systems with a wide dynamic range was named the EEMD-based multiscale KPCA (EEMD-MSKPCA). The method is quite general in nature and could be used in different areas for various tasks even without any really deep understanding of the nature of the system under consideration. Its efficiency was first demonstrated by an illustrative example, after which the applicability for the task of bearing fault detection, diagnosis and signal denosing was tested on simulated as well as actual vibration and acoustic emission (AE) signals measured on purpose-built large-size low-speed bearing test stand. The positive results obtained indicate that the proposed EEMD-MSKPCA method provides a promising tool for tackling non-linear multiscale data which present a convolved picture of many events occupying different regions in the time-frequency plane.

  10. On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong

    2010-09-19

    The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) [1, 2, 3, 4] is a popular method for data assimilation in high dimensional systems (e.g., geophysics models). Essentially the EnSRF is a Monte Carlo implementation of the conventional Kalman filter (KF) [5, 6]. It is mainly different from the KF at the prediction steps, where it is some ensembles, rather then the means and covariance matrices, of the system state that are propagated forward. In doing this, the EnSRF is computationally more efficient than the KF, since propagating a covariance matrix forward in high dimensional systems is prohibitively expensive. In addition, the EnSRF is also very convenient in implementation. By propagating the ensembles of the system state, the EnSRF can be directly applied to nonlinear systems without any change in comparison to the assimilation procedures in linear systems. However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

  11. On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Moroz, Irene M.

    2010-01-01

    However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

  12. Performance Analysis of Local Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Xin T.

    2018-03-01

    Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an important data assimilation method for high-dimensional geophysical systems. Efficient implementation of EnKF in practice often involves the localization technique, which updates each component using only information within a local radius. This paper rigorously analyzes the local EnKF (LEnKF) for linear systems and shows that the filter error can be dominated by the ensemble covariance, as long as (1) the sample size exceeds the logarithmic of state dimension and a constant that depends only on the local radius; (2) the forecast covariance matrix admits a stable localized structure. In particular, this indicates that with small system and observation noises, the filter error will be accurate in long time even if the initialization is not. The analysis also reveals an intrinsic inconsistency caused by the localization technique, and a stable localized structure is necessary to control this inconsistency. While this structure is usually taken for granted for the operation of LEnKF, it can also be rigorously proved for linear systems with sparse local observations and weak local interactions. These theoretical results are also validated by numerical implementation of LEnKF on a simple stochastic turbulence in two dynamical regimes.

  13. Ensemble Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio

    2012-03-01

    proposed to explain the characteristics and the successful application of ensembles to different application domains. For instance, Allwein, Schapire, and Singer interpreted the improved generalization capabilities of ensembles of learning machines in the framework of large margin classifiers [4,177], Kleinberg in the context of stochastic discrimination theory [112], and Breiman and Friedman in the light of the bias-variance analysis borrowed from classical statistics [21,70]. Empirical studies showed that both in classification and regression problems, ensembles improve on single learning machines, and moreover large experimental studies compared the effectiveness of different ensemble methods on benchmark data sets [10,11,49,188]. The interest in this research area is motivated also by the availability of very fast computers and networks of workstations at a relatively low cost that allow the implementation and the experimentation of complex ensemble methods using off-the-shelf computer platforms. However, as explained in Section 26.2 there are deeper reasons to use ensembles of learning machines, motivated by the intrinsic characteristics of the ensemble methods. The main aim of this chapter is to introduce ensemble methods and to provide an overview and a bibliography of the main areas of research, without pretending to be exhaustive or to explain the detailed characteristics of each ensemble method. The paper is organized as follows. In the next section, the main theoretical and practical reasons for combining multiple learners are introduced. Section 26.3 depicts the main taxonomies on ensemble methods proposed in the literature. In Section 26.4 and 26.5, we present an overview of the main supervised ensemble methods reported in the literature, adopting a simple taxonomy, originally proposed in Ref. [201]. Applications of ensemble methods are only marginally considered, but a specific section on some relevant applications of ensemble methods in astronomy and

  14. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. AghaKouchak

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.

  15. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wohling, Thomas [NON LANL

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  16. Ensemble Methods in Data Mining Improving Accuracy Through Combining Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Seni, Giovanni

    2010-01-01

    This book is aimed at novice and advanced analytic researchers and practitioners -- especially in Engineering, Statistics, and Computer Science. Those with little exposure to ensembles will learn why and how to employ this breakthrough method, and advanced practitioners will gain insight into building even more powerful models. Throughout, snippets of code in R are provided to illustrate the algorithms described and to encourage the reader to try the techniques. The authors are industry experts in data mining and machine learning who are also adjunct professors and popular speakers. Although e

  17. Data Pre-Analysis and Ensemble of Various Artificial Neural Networks for Monthly Streamflow Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhong Zhou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces three artificial neural network (ANN architectures for monthly streamflow forecasting: a radial basis function network, an extreme learning machine, and the Elman network. Three ensemble techniques, a simple average ensemble, a weighted average ensemble, and an ANN-based ensemble, were used to combine the outputs of the individual ANN models. The objective was to highlight the performance of the general regression neural network-based ensemble technique (GNE through an improvement of monthly streamflow forecasting accuracy. Before the construction of an ANN model, data preanalysis techniques, such as empirical wavelet transform (EWT, were exploited to eliminate the oscillations of the streamflow series. Additionally, a theory of chaos phase space reconstruction was used to select the most relevant and important input variables for forecasting. The proposed GNE ensemble model has been applied for the mean monthly streamflow observation data from the Wudongde hydrological station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Comparisons and analysis of this study have demonstrated that the denoised streamflow time series was less disordered and unsystematic than was suggested by the original time series according to chaos theory. Thus, EWT can be adopted as an effective data preanalysis technique for the prediction of monthly streamflow. Concurrently, the GNE performed better when compared with other ensemble techniques.

  18. Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles. V S Prasad∗ and C J .... In this study, impact of hybrid ..... of water between vapour, clouds and ice (Damrath et al. 2000). ... flooding – June 2013; Weather and Climate Extremes 4. 22–34.

  19. Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events

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    Sebastian Sippel

    2015-09-01

    In conclusion, our study shows that EVT and empirical estimates based on numerical simulations can indeed be used to productively inform each other, for instance to derive appropriate EVT parameters for short observational time series. Further, the combination of ensemble simulations with EVT allows us to significantly reduce the number of simulations needed for statements about the tails.

  20. An Efficient State–Parameter Filtering Scheme Combining Ensemble Kalman and Particle Filters

    KAUST Repository

    Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa

    2017-12-11

    This work addresses the state-parameter filtering problem for dynamical systems with relatively large-dimensional state and low-dimensional parameters\\' vector. A Bayesian filtering algorithm combining the strengths of the particle filter (PF) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed. At each assimilation cycle of the proposed EnKF-PF, the PF is first used to sample the parameters\\' ensemble followed by the EnKF to compute the state ensemble conditional on the resulting parameters\\' ensemble. The proposed scheme is expected to be more efficient than the traditional state augmentation techniques, which suffer from the curse of dimensionality and inconsistency that is particularly pronounced when the state is a strongly nonlinear function of the parameters. In the new scheme, the EnKF and PF interact via their ensembles\\' members, in contrast with the recently introduced two-stage EnKF-PF (TS-EnKF-PF), which exchanges point estimates between EnKF and PF while requiring almost double the computational load. Numerical experiments are conducted with the Lorenz-96 model to assess the behavior of the proposed filter and to evaluate its performances against the joint PF, joint EnKF, and TS-EnKF-PF. Numerical results suggest that the EnKF-PF performs best in all tested scenarios. It was further found to be more robust, successfully estimating both state and parameters in different sensitivity experiments.

  1. An Efficient State–Parameter Filtering Scheme Combining Ensemble Kalman and Particle Filters

    KAUST Repository

    Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-01-01

    This work addresses the state-parameter filtering problem for dynamical systems with relatively large-dimensional state and low-dimensional parameters' vector. A Bayesian filtering algorithm combining the strengths of the particle filter (PF) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed. At each assimilation cycle of the proposed EnKF-PF, the PF is first used to sample the parameters' ensemble followed by the EnKF to compute the state ensemble conditional on the resulting parameters' ensemble. The proposed scheme is expected to be more efficient than the traditional state augmentation techniques, which suffer from the curse of dimensionality and inconsistency that is particularly pronounced when the state is a strongly nonlinear function of the parameters. In the new scheme, the EnKF and PF interact via their ensembles' members, in contrast with the recently introduced two-stage EnKF-PF (TS-EnKF-PF), which exchanges point estimates between EnKF and PF while requiring almost double the computational load. Numerical experiments are conducted with the Lorenz-96 model to assess the behavior of the proposed filter and to evaluate its performances against the joint PF, joint EnKF, and TS-EnKF-PF. Numerical results suggest that the EnKF-PF performs best in all tested scenarios. It was further found to be more robust, successfully estimating both state and parameters in different sensitivity experiments.

  2. ANALYSIS OF SST IMAGES BY WEIGHTED ENSEMBLE TRANSFORM KALMAN FILTER

    OpenAIRE

    Sai , Gorthi; Beyou , Sébastien; Memin , Etienne

    2011-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents a novel, efficient scheme for the analysis of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) ocean images. We consider the estimation of the velocity fields and vorticity values from a sequence of oceanic images. The contribution of this paper lies in proposing a novel, robust and simple approach based onWeighted Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (WETKF) data assimilation technique for the analysis of real SST images, that may contain coast regions or large areas of ...

  3. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  4. Comprehensive Study on Lexicon-based Ensemble Classification Sentiment Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łukasz Augustyniak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We propose a novel method for counting sentiment orientation that outperforms supervised learning approaches in time and memory complexity and is not statistically significantly different from them in accuracy. Our method consists of a novel approach to generating unigram, bigram and trigram lexicons. The proposed method, called frequentiment, is based on calculating the frequency of features (words in the document and averaging their impact on the sentiment score as opposed to documents that do not contain these features. Afterwards, we use ensemble classification to improve the overall accuracy of the method. What is important is that the frequentiment-based lexicons with sentiment threshold selection outperform other popular lexicons and some supervised learners, while being 3–5 times faster than the supervised approach. We compare 37 methods (lexicons, ensembles with lexicon’s predictions as input and supervised learners applied to 10 Amazon review data sets and provide the first statistical comparison of the sentiment annotation methods that include ensemble approaches. It is one of the most comprehensive comparisons of domain sentiment analysis in the literature.

  5. Climateprediction.com: Public Involvement, Multi-Million Member Ensembles and Systematic Uncertainty Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stainforth, D. A.; Allen, M.; Kettleborough, J.; Collins, M.; Heaps, A.; Stott, P.; Wehner, M.

    2001-12-01

    The climateprediction.com project is preparing to carry out the first systematic uncertainty analysis of climate forecasts using large ensembles of GCM climate simulations. This will be done by involving schools, businesses and members of the public, and utilizing the novel technology of distributed computing. Each participant will be asked to run one member of the ensemble on their PC. The model used will initially be the UK Met Office's Unified Model (UM). It will be run under Windows and software will be provided to enable those involved to view their model output as it develops. The project will use this method to carry out large perturbed physics GCM ensembles and thereby analyse the uncertainty in the forecasts from such models. Each participant/ensemble member will therefore have a version of the UM in which certain aspects of the model physics have been perturbed from their default values. Of course the non-linear nature of the system means that it will be necessary to look not just at perturbations to individual parameters in specific schemes, such as the cloud parameterization, but also to the many combinations of perturbations. This rapidly leads to the need for very large, perhaps multi-million member ensembles, which could only be undertaken using the distributed computing methodology. The status of the project will be presented and the Windows client will be demonstrated. In addition, initial results will be presented from beta test runs using a demo release for Linux PCs and Alpha workstations. Although small by comparison to the whole project, these pilot results constitute a 20-50 member perturbed physics climate ensemble with results indicating how climate sensitivity can be substantially affected by individual parameter values in the cloud scheme.

  6. Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.

    2017-12-01

    Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land

  7. An Ensemble Learning Based Framework for Traditional Chinese Medicine Data Analysis with ICD-10 Labels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This study aims to establish a model to analyze clinical experience of TCM veteran doctors. We propose an ensemble learning based framework to analyze clinical records with ICD-10 labels information for effective diagnosis and acupoints recommendation. Methods. We propose an ensemble learning framework for the analysis task. A set of base learners composed of decision tree (DT and support vector machine (SVM are trained by bootstrapping the training dataset. The base learners are sorted by accuracy and diversity through nondominated sort (NDS algorithm and combined through a deep ensemble learning strategy. Results. We evaluate the proposed method with comparison to two currently successful methods on a clinical diagnosis dataset with manually labeled ICD-10 information. ICD-10 label annotation and acupoints recommendation are evaluated for three methods. The proposed method achieves an accuracy rate of 88.2%  ±  2.8% measured by zero-one loss for the first evaluation session and 79.6%  ±  3.6% measured by Hamming loss, which are superior to the other two methods. Conclusion. The proposed ensemble model can effectively model the implied knowledge and experience in historic clinical data records. The computational cost of training a set of base learners is relatively low.

  8. Ensemble Modeling for Robustness Analysis in engineering non-native metabolic pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yun; Lafontaine Rivera, Jimmy G; Liao, James C

    2014-09-01

    Metabolic pathways in cells must be sufficiently robust to tolerate fluctuations in expression levels and changes in environmental conditions. Perturbations in expression levels may lead to system failure due to the disappearance of a stable steady state. Increasing evidence has suggested that biological networks have evolved such that they are intrinsically robust in their network structure. In this article, we presented Ensemble Modeling for Robustness Analysis (EMRA), which combines a continuation method with the Ensemble Modeling approach, for investigating the robustness issue of non-native pathways. EMRA investigates a large ensemble of reference models with different parameters, and determines the effects of parameter drifting until a bifurcation point, beyond which a stable steady state disappears and system failure occurs. A pathway is considered to have high bifurcational robustness if the probability of system failure is low in the ensemble. To demonstrate the utility of EMRA, we investigate the bifurcational robustness of two synthetic central metabolic pathways that achieve carbon conservation: non-oxidative glycolysis and reverse glyoxylate cycle. With EMRA, we determined the probability of system failure of each design and demonstrated that alternative designs of these pathways indeed display varying degrees of bifurcational robustness. Furthermore, we demonstrated that target selection for flux improvement should consider the trade-offs between robustness and performance. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei; Yuan, Xiaoru; Liu, Junfeng; Liang, Jie

    2016-04-19

    We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based on ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.

  10. Ovis: A framework for visual analysis of ocean forecast ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Zhan, Peng; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D.; Hadwiger, Markus

    2014-01-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  11. Ovis: A Framework for Visual Analysis of Ocean Forecast Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höllt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Zhan, Peng; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D; Hadwiger, Markus

    2014-08-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea.

  12. Ovis: A framework for visual analysis of ocean forecast ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2014-08-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  13. Ensemble approach combining multiple methods improves human transcription start site prediction

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dineen, David G

    2010-11-30

    Abstract Background The computational prediction of transcription start sites is an important unsolved problem. Some recent progress has been made, but many promoters, particularly those not associated with CpG islands, are still difficult to locate using current methods. These methods use different features and training sets, along with a variety of machine learning techniques and result in different prediction sets. Results We demonstrate the heterogeneity of current prediction sets, and take advantage of this heterogeneity to construct a two-level classifier (\\'Profisi Ensemble\\') using predictions from 7 programs, along with 2 other data sources. Support vector machines using \\'full\\' and \\'reduced\\' data sets are combined in an either\\/or approach. We achieve a 14% increase in performance over the current state-of-the-art, as benchmarked by a third-party tool. Conclusions Supervised learning methods are a useful way to combine predictions from diverse sources.

  14. Cluster-based analysis of multi-model climate ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, Richard; Hossaini, Ryan; Leeson, Amber A.

    2018-06-01

    Clustering - the automated grouping of similar data - can provide powerful and unique insight into large and complex data sets, in a fast and computationally efficient manner. While clustering has been used in a variety of fields (from medical image processing to economics), its application within atmospheric science has been fairly limited to date, and the potential benefits of the application of advanced clustering techniques to climate data (both model output and observations) has yet to be fully realised. In this paper, we explore the specific application of clustering to a multi-model climate ensemble. We hypothesise that clustering techniques can provide (a) a flexible, data-driven method of testing model-observation agreement and (b) a mechanism with which to identify model development priorities. We focus our analysis on chemistry-climate model (CCM) output of tropospheric ozone - an important greenhouse gas - from the recent Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Tropospheric column ozone from the ACCMIP ensemble was clustered using the Data Density based Clustering (DDC) algorithm. We find that a multi-model mean (MMM) calculated using members of the most-populous cluster identified at each location offers a reduction of up to ˜ 20 % in the global absolute mean bias between the MMM and an observed satellite-based tropospheric ozone climatology, with respect to a simple, all-model MMM. On a spatial basis, the bias is reduced at ˜ 62 % of all locations, with the largest bias reductions occurring in the Northern Hemisphere - where ozone concentrations are relatively large. However, the bias is unchanged at 9 % of all locations and increases at 29 %, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. The latter demonstrates that although cluster-based subsampling acts to remove outlier model data, such data may in fact be closer to observed values in some locations. We further demonstrate that clustering can provide a viable and

  15. Combining Rosetta with molecular dynamics (MD): A benchmark of the MD-based ensemble protein design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwiczak, Jan; Jarmula, Adam; Dunin-Horkawicz, Stanislaw

    2018-07-01

    Computational protein design is a set of procedures for computing amino acid sequences that will fold into a specified structure. Rosetta Design, a commonly used software for protein design, allows for the effective identification of sequences compatible with a given backbone structure, while molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can thoroughly sample near-native conformations. We benchmarked a procedure in which Rosetta design is started on MD-derived structural ensembles and showed that such a combined approach generates 20-30% more diverse sequences than currently available methods with only a slight increase in computation time. Importantly, the increase in diversity is achieved without a loss in the quality of the designed sequences assessed by their resemblance to natural sequences. We demonstrate that the MD-based procedure is also applicable to de novo design tasks started from backbone structures without any sequence information. In addition, we implemented a protocol that can be used to assess the stability of designed models and to select the best candidates for experimental validation. In sum our results demonstrate that the MD ensemble-based flexible backbone design can be a viable method for protein design, especially for tasks that require a large pool of diverse sequences. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Development of the Ensemble Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (ENAAPS and its application of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART in support of aerosol forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. I. Rubin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available An ensemble-based forecast and data assimilation system has been developed for use in Navy aerosol forecasting. The system makes use of an ensemble of the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (ENAAPS at 1 × 1°, combined with an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter from NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART. The base ENAAPS-DART system discussed in this work utilizes the Navy Operational Global Analysis Prediction System (NOGAPS meteorological ensemble to drive offline NAAPS simulations coupled with the DART ensemble Kalman filter architecture to assimilate bias-corrected MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT retrievals. This work outlines the optimization of the 20-member ensemble system, including consideration of meteorology and source-perturbed ensemble members as well as covariance inflation. Additional tests with 80 meteorological and source members were also performed. An important finding of this work is that an adaptive covariance inflation method, which has not been previously tested for aerosol applications, was found to perform better than a temporally and spatially constant covariance inflation. Problems were identified with the constant inflation in regions with limited observational coverage. The second major finding of this work is that combined meteorology and aerosol source ensembles are superior to either in isolation and that both are necessary to produce a robust system with sufficient spread in the ensemble members as well as realistic correlation fields for spreading observational information. The inclusion of aerosol source ensembles improves correlation fields for large aerosol source regions, such as smoke and dust in Africa, by statistically separating freshly emitted from transported aerosol species. However, the source ensembles have limited efficacy during long-range transport. Conversely, the meteorological ensemble generates sufficient spread at the synoptic scale to enable observational impact

  17. Performance analysis of a Principal Component Analysis ensemble classifier for Emotiv headset P300 spellers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsawy, Amr S; Eldawlatly, Seif; Taher, Mohamed; Aly, Gamal M

    2014-01-01

    The current trend to use Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) with mobile devices mandates the development of efficient EEG data processing methods. In this paper, we demonstrate the performance of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) ensemble classifier for P300-based spellers. We recorded EEG data from multiple subjects using the Emotiv neuroheadset in the context of a classical oddball P300 speller paradigm. We compare the performance of the proposed ensemble classifier to the performance of traditional feature extraction and classifier methods. Our results demonstrate the capability of the PCA ensemble classifier to classify P300 data recorded using the Emotiv neuroheadset with an average accuracy of 86.29% on cross-validation data. In addition, offline testing of the recorded data reveals an average classification accuracy of 73.3% that is significantly higher than that achieved using traditional methods. Finally, we demonstrate the effect of the parameters of the P300 speller paradigm on the performance of the method.

  18. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis 90-Day Seasonal Forecast of Precipitation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) precipitation forecast is a 90-day (seasonal) outlook of US surface precipitation anomalies. The ECCA uses...

  19. Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset documents the source of the data analyzed in the manuscript " Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII...

  20. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis Forecast of Temperature

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) temperature forecast is a 90-day (seasonal) outlook of US surface temperature anomalies. The ECCA uses Canonical...

  1. Ensemble methods for handwritten digit recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Liisberg, Christian; Salamon, P.

    1992-01-01

    Neural network ensembles are applied to handwritten digit recognition. The individual networks of the ensemble are combinations of sparse look-up tables (LUTs) with random receptive fields. It is shown that the consensus of a group of networks outperforms the best individual of the ensemble....... It is further shown that it is possible to estimate the ensemble performance as well as the learning curve on a medium-size database. In addition the authors present preliminary analysis of experiments on a large database and show that state-of-the-art performance can be obtained using the ensemble approach...... by optimizing the receptive fields. It is concluded that it is possible to improve performance significantly by introducing moderate-size ensembles; in particular, a 20-25% improvement has been found. The ensemble random LUTs, when trained on a medium-size database, reach a performance (without rejects) of 94...

  2. Ensembl 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birney, E; Andrews, D; Bevan, P; Caccamo, M; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clarke, L; Coates, G; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Cutts, T; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Fernandez-Suarez, X M; Gane, P; Gibbins, B; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hotz, H; Iyer, V; Kahari, A; Jekosch, K; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Keenan, S; Lehvaslaiho, H; McVicker, G; Melsopp, C; Meidl, P; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Proctor, G; Rae, M; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smedley, D; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Storey, R; Ureta-Vidal, A; Woodwark, C; Clamp, M; Hubbard, T

    2004-01-01

    The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organize biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive and integrated source of annotation of large genome sequences, available via interactive website, web services or flat files. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. The facilities of the system range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualization and installations exist around the world both in companies and at academic sites. With a total of nine genome sequences available from Ensembl and more genomes to follow, recent developments have focused mainly on closer integration between genomes and external data.

  3. Contributions to Ensemble Classifiers with Image Analysis Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Ayerdi Vilches, Borja

    2015-01-01

    134 p. Ésta tesis tiene dos aspectos fundamentales, por un lado, la propuesta denuevas arquitecturas de clasificadores y, por otro, su aplicación a el análisis deimagen.Desde el punto de vista de proponer nuevas arquitecturas de clasificaciónla tesis tiene dos contribucciones principales. En primer lugar la propuestade un innovador ensemble de clasificadores basado en arquitecturas aleatorias,como pueden ser las Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), Random Forest (RF) yRotation Forest, llamado ...

  4. With or without a conductor: Comparative analysis of leadership models in the musical ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovačević Mia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In search of innovative models of work organization and therefore the artistic process of one musical ensemble, in the last ten years musical ensembles have developed examples of non-traditional artistic-performing decisions and organizational practice. The paper is conceived as a research and analysis of the dominant models of leadership (i.e. organizing, conducting business applicable on the music ensembles and experiences of the musicians. The aim is to recognize and define leadership styles that encourage the increase of motivation and productivity of musicians within the musical ensemble. The paper will specifically investigate the relationship and differences between the two dominant models of leadership, leadership of conductor and collaborative leadership. At the same time, the paper describes and analyses an experiment that was conducted by the Ensemble Metamorphosis, which applied into their work two dominant models of leadership. In an effort to increase the motivation and productivity of musicians, Ensemble Metamorphosis also searched for a new management model of work organization and a new model of leadership. The aim of this paper was therefore to investigate the effects of leadership models that improve the artistic quality, motivation of the musicians, psychological climate and overall increase productivity of musical organization.

  5. A MITgcm/DART ensemble analysis and prediction system with application to the Gulf of Mexico

    KAUST Repository

    Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2013-09-01

    This paper describes the development of an advanced ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based ocean data assimilation system for prediction of the evolution of the loop current in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The system integrates the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) assimilation package with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ocean general circulation model (MITgcm). The MITgcm/DART system supports the assimilation of a wide range of ocean observations and uses an ensemble approach to solve the nonlinear assimilation problems. The GoM prediction system was implemented with an eddy-resolving 1/10th degree configuration of the MITgcm. Assimilation experiments were performed over a 6-month period between May and October during a strong loop current event in 1999. The model was sequentially constrained with weekly satellite sea surface temperature and altimetry data. Experiments results suggest that the ensemble-based assimilation system shows a high predictive skill in the GoM, with estimated ensemble spread mainly concentrated around the front of the loop current. Further analysis of the system estimates demonstrates that the ensemble assimilation accurately reproduces the observed features without imposing any negative impact on the dynamical balance of the system. Results from sensitivity experiments with respect to the ensemble filter parameters are also presented and discussed. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

  6. Analysis of ensembles of moderately saturated interstellar lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, E.B.

    1986-01-01

    It is shown that the combined equivalent widths for a large population of Gaussian-like interstellar line components, each with different central optical depths tau(0) and velocity dispersions b, exhibit a curve of growth (COG) which closely mimics that of a single, pure Gaussian distribution in velocity. Two parametric distributions functions for the line populations are considered: a bivariate Gaussian for tau(0) and b and a power law distribution for tau(0) combined with a Gaussian dispersion for b. First, COGs for populations having an extremely large number of nonoverlapping components are derived, and the implications are shown by focusing on the doublet-ratio analysis for a pair of lines whose f-values differ by a factor of two. The consequences of having, instead of an almost infinite number of lines, a relatively small collection of components added together for each member of a doublet are examined. The theory of how the equivalent widths grow for populations of overlapping Gaussian profiles is developed. Examples of the composite COG analysis applied to existing collections of high-resolution interstellar line data are presented. 39 references

  7. Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Kioutsioukis

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism. Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2 and particulate matter (PM10. Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII. The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each station's best deterministic model at no more than 60 % of the sites, indicating a combination of members with unbalanced skill difference and error dependence for the rest. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way. The skill improvements were higher for O3 and lower for PM10, associated with the extent of potential changes in the joint

  8. Ensemble Learning or Deep Learning? Application to Default Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shigeyuki Hamori

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Proper credit-risk management is essential for lending institutions, as substantial losses can be incurred when borrowers default. Consequently, statistical methods that can measure and analyze credit risk objectively are becoming increasingly important. This study analyzes default payment data and compares the prediction accuracy and classification ability of three ensemble-learning methods—specifically, bagging, random forest, and boosting—with those of various neural-network methods, each of which has a different activation function. The results obtained indicate that the classification ability of boosting is superior to other machine-learning methods including neural networks. It is also found that the performance of neural-network models depends on the choice of activation function, the number of middle layers, and the inclusion of dropout.

  9. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

  10. Multi-complexity ensemble measures for gait time series analysis: application to diagnostics, monitoring and biometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrishchaka, Valeriy; Senyukova, Olga; Davis, Kristina

    2015-01-01

    Previously, we have proposed to use complementary complexity measures discovered by boosting-like ensemble learning for the enhancement of quantitative indicators dealing with necessarily short physiological time series. We have confirmed robustness of such multi-complexity measures for heart rate variability analysis with the emphasis on detection of emerging and intermittent cardiac abnormalities. Recently, we presented preliminary results suggesting that such ensemble-based approach could be also effective in discovering universal meta-indicators for early detection and convenient monitoring of neurological abnormalities using gait time series. Here, we argue and demonstrate that these multi-complexity ensemble measures for gait time series analysis could have significantly wider application scope ranging from diagnostics and early detection of physiological regime change to gait-based biometrics applications.

  11. The Ensembl REST API: Ensembl Data for Any Language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Andrew; Beal, Kathryn; Keenan, Stephen; McLaren, William; Pignatelli, Miguel; Ritchie, Graham R S; Ruffier, Magali; Taylor, Kieron; Vullo, Alessandro; Flicek, Paul

    2015-01-01

    We present a Web service to access Ensembl data using Representational State Transfer (REST). The Ensembl REST server enables the easy retrieval of a wide range of Ensembl data by most programming languages, using standard formats such as JSON and FASTA while minimizing client work. We also introduce bindings to the popular Ensembl Variant Effect Predictor tool permitting large-scale programmatic variant analysis independent of any specific programming language. The Ensembl REST API can be accessed at http://rest.ensembl.org and source code is freely available under an Apache 2.0 license from http://github.com/Ensembl/ensembl-rest. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

  12. Multi-model ensemble combinations of the water budget in the East/Japan Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    HAN, S.; Hirose, N.; Usui, N.; Miyazawa, Y.

    2016-02-01

    The water balance of East/Japan Sea is determined mainly by inflow and outflow through the Korea/Tsushima, Tsugaru and Soya/La Perouse Straits. However, the volume transports measured at three straits remain quantitatively unbalanced. This study examined the seasonal variation of the volume transport using the multiple linear regression and ridge regression of multi-model ensemble (MME) methods to estimate physically consistent circulation in East/Japan Sea by using four different data assimilation models. The MME outperformed all of the single models by reducing uncertainties, especially the multicollinearity problem with the ridge regression. However, the regression constants turned out to be inconsistent with each other if the MME was applied separately for each strait. The MME for a connected system was thus performed to find common constants for these straits. The estimation of this MME was found to be similar to the MME result of sea level difference (SLD). The estimated mean transport (2.42 Sv) was smaller than the measurement data at the Korea/Tsushima Strait, but the calibrated transport of the Tsugaru Strait (1.63 Sv) was larger than the observed data. The MME results of transport and SLD also suggested that the standard deviation (STD) of the Korea/Tsushima Strait is larger than the STD of the observation, whereas the estimated results were almost identical to that observed for the Tsugaru and Soya/La Perouse Straits. The similarity between MME results enhances the reliability of the present MME estimation.

  13. Optical ensemble analysis of intraocular lens performance through a simulated clinical trial with ZEMAX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Huawei

    2009-01-01

    A ZEMAX model was constructed to simulate a clinical trial of intraocular lenses (IOLs) based on a clinically oriented Monte Carlo ensemble analysis using postoperative ocular parameters. The purpose of this model is to test the feasibility of streamlining and optimizing both the design process and the clinical testing of IOLs. This optical ensemble analysis (OEA) is also validated. Simulated pseudophakic eyes were generated by using the tolerancing and programming features of ZEMAX optical design software. OEA methodology was verified by demonstrating that the results of clinical performance simulations were consistent with previously published clinical performance data using the same types of IOLs. From these results we conclude that the OEA method can objectively simulate the potential clinical trial performance of IOLs.

  14. Pathway Analysis in Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder: An Ensemble Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, Michael A.; McWeeney, Shannon K.; Faraone, Stephen V.; Hinney, Anke; Hebebrand, Johannes; Nigg, Joel T.; Wilmot, Beth

    2016-01-01

    Despite a wealth of evidence for the role of genetics in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), specific and definitive genetic mechanisms have not been identified. Pathway analyses, a subset of gene-set analyses, extend the knowledge gained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) by providing functional context for genetic associations. However, there are numerous methods for association testing of gene sets and no real consensus regarding the best approach. The present study applied six pathway analysis methods to identify pathways associated with ADHD in two GWAS datasets from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Methods that utilize genotypes to model pathway-level effects identified more replicable pathway associations than methods using summary statistics. In addition, pathways implicated by more than one method were significantly more likely to replicate. A number of brain-relevant pathways, such as RhoA signaling, glycosaminoglycan biosynthesis, fibroblast growth factor receptor activity, and pathways containing potassium channel genes, were nominally significant by multiple methods in both datasets. These results support previous hypotheses about the role of regulation of neurotransmitter release, neurite outgrowth and axon guidance in contributing to the ADHD phenotype and suggest the value of cross-method convergence in evaluating pathway analysis results. PMID:27004716

  15. Machinery fault diagnosis using joint global and local/nonlocal discriminant analysis with selective ensemble learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jianbo

    2016-11-01

    The vibration signals of faulty machine are generally non-stationary and nonlinear under those complicated working conditions. Thus, it is a big challenge to extract and select the effective features from vibration signals for machinery fault diagnosis. This paper proposes a new manifold learning algorithm, joint global and local/nonlocal discriminant analysis (GLNDA), which aims to extract effective intrinsic geometrical information from the given vibration data. Comparisons with other regular methods, principal component analysis (PCA), local preserving projection (LPP), linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and local LDA (LLDA), illustrate the superiority of GLNDA in machinery fault diagnosis. Based on the extracted information by GLNDA, a GLNDA-based Fisher discriminant rule (FDR) is put forward and applied to machinery fault diagnosis without additional recognizer construction procedure. By importing Bagging into GLNDA score-based feature selection and FDR, a novel manifold ensemble method (selective GLNDA ensemble, SE-GLNDA) is investigated for machinery fault diagnosis. The motivation for developing ensemble of manifold learning components is that it can achieve higher accuracy and applicability than single component in machinery fault diagnosis. The effectiveness of the SE-GLNDA-based fault diagnosis method has been verified by experimental results from bearing full life testers.

  16. PERPADUAN COMBINED SAMPLING DAN ENSEMBLE OF SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE (ENSVM UNTUK MENANGANI KASUS CHURN PREDICTION PERUSAHAAN TELEKOMUNIKASI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernandy Marbun

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Churn prediction adalah suatu cara untuk memprediksi pelanggan yang berpotensial untuk churn. Data mining khususnya klasifikasi tampaknya dapat menjadi alternatif solusi dalam membuat model churn prediction yang akurat. Namun hasil klasifikasi menjadi tidak akurat disebabkan karena data churn bersifat imbalance. Kelas data menjadi tidak stabil karena data akan lebih condong ke bagian data yang memiliki komposisi data yang lebih besar. Salah satu cara untuk menangani permasalahan ini adalah dengan memodifikasi dataset yang digunakan atau yang lebih dikenal dengan metode resampling. Teknik resampling ini meliputi over-sampling, under-sampling, dan combined-sampling. Metode Ensemble of SVM (EnSVM diharapkan dapat meminimalisir kesalahan klasifikasi kelas mayor dan minor yang dihasilkan oleh classifier SVM tunggal. Dalam penelitian ini akan dicoba untuk memadukan combined sampling dan EnSVM untuk churn predicition. Pengujian dilakukan dengan membandingkan hasil klasifikasi CombinedSampling-EnSVM dengan SMOTE-SVM (perpaduan oversamping-SVM dan pure-SVM. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa metode CombinedSampling-EnSVM secara umum hanya mampu menghasilkan performansi Gini Index yang lebih baik daripada metode SMOTE-SVM dan tanpa resampling (pure-SVM.

  17. Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Riccio

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides.

    We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b.

    This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.

  18. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting in the Tehachapi Region Winter Season

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zack, John [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Natenberg, Eddie [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Young, Steve [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Van Knowe, Glenn [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Waight, Ken [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Manobainco, John [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Kamath, Chandrika [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2010-10-20

    This study extends the wind power forecast sensitivity work done by Zack et al. (2010a, b) in two prior research efforts. Zack et al. (2010a, b) investigated the relative predictive value and optimal combination of different variables/locations from correlated sensitivity patterns. Their work involved developing the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA) and applying the algorithm to the results obtained from the Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) method (Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008).

  19. Comparison of different incremental analysis update schemes in a realistic assimilation system with Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Y.; Barth, A.; Beckers, J. M.; Brankart, J. M.; Brasseur, P.; Candille, G.

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, three incremental analysis update schemes (IAU 0, IAU 50 and IAU 100) are compared in the same assimilation experiments with a realistic eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The difference between the three IAU schemes lies on the position of the increment update window. The relevance of each IAU scheme is evaluated through analyses on both thermohaline and dynamical variables. The validation of the assimilation results is performed according to both deterministic and probabilistic metrics against different sources of observations. For deterministic validation, the ensemble mean and the ensemble spread are compared to the observations. For probabilistic validation, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the ensemble forecast system according to reliability and resolution. The reliability is further decomposed into bias and dispersion by the reduced centred random variable (RCRV) score. The obtained results show that 1) the IAU 50 scheme has the same performance as the IAU 100 scheme 2) the IAU 50/100 schemes outperform the IAU 0 scheme in error covariance propagation for thermohaline variables in relatively stable region, while the IAU 0 scheme outperforms the IAU 50/100 schemes in dynamical variables estimation in dynamically active region 3) in case with sufficient number of observations and good error specification, the impact of IAU schemes is negligible. The differences between the IAU 0 scheme and the IAU 50/100 schemes are mainly due to different model integration time and different instability (density inversion, large vertical velocity, etc.) induced by the increment update. The longer model integration time with the IAU 50/100 schemes, especially the free model integration, on one hand, allows for better re-establishment of the equilibrium model state, on the other hand, smooths the strong gradients in dynamically active region.

  20. Combining structural modeling with ensemble machine learning to accurately predict protein fold stability and binding affinity effects upon mutation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niklas Berliner

    Full Text Available Advances in sequencing have led to a rapid accumulation of mutations, some of which are associated with diseases. However, to draw mechanistic conclusions, a biochemical understanding of these mutations is necessary. For coding mutations, accurate prediction of significant changes in either the stability of proteins or their affinity to their binding partners is required. Traditional methods have used semi-empirical force fields, while newer methods employ machine learning of sequence and structural features. Here, we show how combining both of these approaches leads to a marked boost in accuracy. We introduce ELASPIC, a novel ensemble machine learning approach that is able to predict stability effects upon mutation in both, domain cores and domain-domain interfaces. We combine semi-empirical energy terms, sequence conservation, and a wide variety of molecular details with a Stochastic Gradient Boosting of Decision Trees (SGB-DT algorithm. The accuracy of our predictions surpasses existing methods by a considerable margin, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.77 for stability, and 0.75 for affinity predictions. Notably, we integrated homology modeling to enable proteome-wide prediction and show that accurate prediction on modeled structures is possible. Lastly, ELASPIC showed significant differences between various types of disease-associated mutations, as well as between disease and common neutral mutations. Unlike pure sequence-based prediction methods that try to predict phenotypic effects of mutations, our predictions unravel the molecular details governing the protein instability, and help us better understand the molecular causes of diseases.

  1. Cost-Loss Analysis of Ensemble Solar Wind Forecasting: Space Weather Use of Terrestrial Weather Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E. M.; Pope, E. C. D.

    2017-12-01

    This commentary concerns recent work on solar wind forecasting by Owens and Riley (2017). The approach taken makes effective use of tools commonly used in terrestrial weather—notably, via use of a simple model—generation of an "ensemble" forecast, and application of a "cost-loss" analysis to the resulting probabilistic information, to explore the benefit of this forecast to users with different risk appetites. This commentary aims to highlight these useful techniques to the wider space weather audience and to briefly discuss the general context of application of terrestrial weather approaches to space weather.

  2. Experiences in multiyear combined state-parameter estimation with an ecosystem model of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Ehouarn; Samuelsen, Annette; Bertino, Laurent; Mouysset, Sandrine

    2015-12-01

    A sequence of one-year combined state-parameter estimation experiments has been conducted in a North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean configuration of the coupled physical-biogeochemical model HYCOM-NORWECOM over the period 2007-2010. The aim is to evaluate the ability of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to calibrate ecosystem model parameters in a pre-operational setting, namely the production of the MyOcean pilot reanalysis of the Arctic biology. For that purpose, four biological parameters (two phyto- and two zooplankton mortality rates) are estimated by assimilating weekly data such as, satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature, along-track Sea Level Anomalies, ice concentrations and chlorophyll-a concentrations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The set of optimized parameters locally exhibits seasonal variations suggesting that time-dependent parameters should be used in ocean ecosystem models. A clustering analysis of the optimized parameters is performed in order to identify consistent ecosystem regions. In the north part of the domain, where the ecosystem model is the most reliable, most of them can be associated with Longhurst provinces and new provinces emerge in the Arctic Ocean. However, the clusters do not coincide anymore with the Longhurst provinces in the Tropics due to large model errors. Regarding the ecosystem state variables, the assimilation of satellite-derived chlorophyll concentration leads to significant reduction of the RMS errors in the observed variables during the first year, i.e. 2008, compared to a free run simulation. However, local filter divergences of the parameter component occur in 2009 and result in an increase in the RMS error at the time of the spring bloom.

  3. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve...

  4. Powerful Tests for Multi-Marker Association Analysis Using Ensemble Learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badri Padhukasahasram

    Full Text Available Multi-marker approaches have received a lot of attention recently in genome wide association studies and can enhance power to detect new associations under certain conditions. Gene-, gene-set- and pathway-based association tests are increasingly being viewed as useful supplements to the more widely used single marker association analysis which have successfully uncovered numerous disease variants. A major drawback of single-marker based methods is that they do not look at the joint effects of multiple genetic variants which individually may have weak or moderate signals. Here, we describe novel tests for multi-marker association analyses that are based on phenotype predictions obtained from machine learning algorithms. Instead of assuming a linear or logistic regression model, we propose the use of ensembles of diverse machine learning algorithms for prediction. We show that phenotype predictions obtained from ensemble learning algorithms provide a new framework for multi-marker association analysis. They can be used for constructing tests for the joint association of multiple variants, adjusting for covariates and testing for the presence of interactions. To demonstrate the power and utility of this new approach, we first apply our method to simulated SNP datasets. We show that the proposed method has the correct Type-1 error rates and can be considerably more powerful than alternative approaches in some situations. Then, we apply our method to previously studied asthma-related genes in 2 independent asthma cohorts to conduct association tests.

  5. Statistical Analysis of the First Passage Path Ensemble of Jump Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Kleist, Max; Schütte, Christof; Zhang, Wei

    2018-02-01

    The transition mechanism of jump processes between two different subsets in state space reveals important dynamical information of the processes and therefore has attracted considerable attention in the past years. In this paper, we study the first passage path ensemble of both discrete-time and continuous-time jump processes on a finite state space. The main approach is to divide each first passage path into nonreactive and reactive segments and to study them separately. The analysis can be applied to jump processes which are non-ergodic, as well as continuous-time jump processes where the waiting time distributions are non-exponential. In the particular case that the jump processes are both Markovian and ergodic, our analysis elucidates the relations between the study of the first passage paths and the study of the transition paths in transition path theory. We provide algorithms to numerically compute statistics of the first passage path ensemble. The computational complexity of these algorithms scales with the complexity of solving a linear system, for which efficient methods are available. Several examples demonstrate the wide applicability of the derived results across research areas.

  6. Principal components analysis of protein structure ensembles calculated using NMR data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howe, Peter W.A.

    2001-01-01

    One important problem when calculating structures of biomolecules from NMR data is distinguishing converged structures from outlier structures. This paper describes how Principal Components Analysis (PCA) has the potential to classify calculated structures automatically, according to correlated structural variation across the population. PCA analysis has the additional advantage that it highlights regions of proteins which are varying across the population. To apply PCA, protein structures have to be reduced in complexity and this paper describes two different representations of protein structures which achieve this. The calculated structures of a 28 amino acid peptide are used to demonstrate the methods. The two different representations of protein structure are shown to give equivalent results, and correct results are obtained even though the ensemble of structures used as an example contains two different protein conformations. The PCA analysis also correctly identifies the structural differences between the two conformations

  7. Fast multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition for the analysis of big spatio-temporal datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhaohua; Feng, Jiaxin; Qiao, Fangli; Tan, Zhe-Min

    2016-04-13

    In this big data era, it is more urgent than ever to solve two major issues: (i) fast data transmission methods that can facilitate access to data from non-local sources and (ii) fast and efficient data analysis methods that can reveal the key information from the available data for particular purposes. Although approaches in different fields to address these two questions may differ significantly, the common part must involve data compression techniques and a fast algorithm. This paper introduces the recently developed adaptive and spatio-temporally local analysis method, namely the fast multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD), for the analysis of a large spatio-temporal dataset. The original MEEMD uses ensemble empirical mode decomposition to decompose time series at each spatial grid and then pieces together the temporal-spatial evolution of climate variability and change on naturally separated timescales, which is computationally expensive. By taking advantage of the high efficiency of the expression using principal component analysis/empirical orthogonal function analysis for spatio-temporally coherent data, we design a lossy compression method for climate data to facilitate its non-local transmission. We also explain the basic principles behind the fast MEEMD through decomposing principal components instead of original grid-wise time series to speed up computation of MEEMD. Using a typical climate dataset as an example, we demonstrate that our newly designed methods can (i) compress data with a compression rate of one to two orders; and (ii) speed-up the MEEMD algorithm by one to two orders. © 2016 The Authors.

  8. Using decision trees and their ensembles for analysis of NIR spectroscopic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kucheryavskiy, Sergey V.

    and interpretation of the models. In this presentation, we are going to discuss an applicability of decision trees based methods (including gradient boosting) for solving classification and regression tasks with NIR spectra as predictors. We will cover such aspects as evaluation, optimization and validation......Advanced machine learning methods, like convolutional neural networks and decision trees, became extremely popular in the last decade. This, first of all, is directly related to the current boom in Big data analysis, where traditional statistical methods are not efficient. According to the kaggle.......com — the most popular online resource for Big data problems and solutions — methods based on decision trees and their ensembles are most widely used for solving the problems. It can be noted that the decision trees and convolutional neural networks are not very popular in Chemometrics. One of the reasons...

  9. Statistical analysis of time-resolved emission from ensembles of semiconductor quantum dots: interpretations of exponantial decay models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Driel, A.F.; Nikolaev, I.; Vergeer, P.; Lodahl, P.; Vanmaekelbergh, D.; Vos, Willem L.

    2007-01-01

    We present a statistical analysis of time-resolved spontaneous emission decay curves from ensembles of emitters, such as semiconductor quantum dots, with the aim of interpreting ubiquitous non-single-exponential decay. Contrary to what is widely assumed, the density of excited emitters and the

  10. NYYD Ensemble

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx

  11. Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

    2015-12-01

    We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

  12. Combining extrapolation with ghost interaction correction in range-separated ensemble density functional theory for excited states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Md. Mehboob; Deur, Killian; Knecht, Stefan; Fromager, Emmanuel

    2017-11-01

    The extrapolation technique of Savin [J. Chem. Phys. 140, 18A509 (2014)], which was initially applied to range-separated ground-state-density-functional Hamiltonians, is adapted in this work to ghost-interaction-corrected (GIC) range-separated ensemble density-functional theory (eDFT) for excited states. While standard extrapolations rely on energies that decay as μ-2 in the large range-separation-parameter μ limit, we show analytically that (approximate) range-separated GIC ensemble energies converge more rapidly (as μ-3) towards their pure wavefunction theory values (μ → +∞ limit), thus requiring a different extrapolation correction. The purpose of such a correction is to further improve on the convergence and, consequently, to obtain more accurate excitation energies for a finite (and, in practice, relatively small) μ value. As a proof of concept, we apply the extrapolation method to He and small molecular systems (viz., H2, HeH+, and LiH), thus considering different types of excitations such as Rydberg, charge transfer, and double excitations. Potential energy profiles of the first three and four singlet Σ+ excitation energies in HeH+ and H2, respectively, are studied with a particular focus on avoided crossings for the latter. Finally, the extraction of individual state energies from the ensemble energy is discussed in the context of range-separated eDFT, as a perspective.

  13. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Nikunj C.

    2004-01-01

    Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.

  14. Computational modeling of allosteric regulation in the hsp90 chaperones: a statistical ensemble analysis of protein structure networks and allosteric communications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin Blacklock

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental role of the Hsp90 chaperone in regulating functional activity of diverse protein clients is essential for the integrity of signaling networks. In this work we have combined biophysical simulations of the Hsp90 crystal structures with the protein structure network analysis to characterize the statistical ensemble of allosteric interaction networks and communication pathways in the Hsp90 chaperones. We have found that principal structurally stable communities could be preserved during dynamic changes in the conformational ensemble. The dominant contribution of the inter-domain rigidity to the interaction networks has emerged as a common factor responsible for the thermodynamic stability of the active chaperone form during the ATPase cycle. Structural stability analysis using force constant profiling of the inter-residue fluctuation distances has identified a network of conserved structurally rigid residues that could serve as global mediating sites of allosteric communication. Mapping of the conformational landscape with the network centrality parameters has demonstrated that stable communities and mediating residues may act concertedly with the shifts in the conformational equilibrium and could describe the majority of functionally significant chaperone residues. The network analysis has revealed a relationship between structural stability, global centrality and functional significance of hotspot residues involved in chaperone regulation. We have found that allosteric interactions in the Hsp90 chaperone may be mediated by modules of structurally stable residues that display high betweenness in the global interaction network. The results of this study have suggested that allosteric interactions in the Hsp90 chaperone may operate via a mechanism that combines rapid and efficient communication by a single optimal pathway of structurally rigid residues and more robust signal transmission using an ensemble of suboptimal multiple

  15. Large-scale exploration and analysis of drug combinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peng; Huang, Chao; Fu, Yingxue; Wang, Jinan; Wu, Ziyin; Ru, Jinlong; Zheng, Chunli; Guo, Zihu; Chen, Xuetong; Zhou, Wei; Zhang, Wenjuan; Li, Yan; Chen, Jianxin; Lu, Aiping; Wang, Yonghua

    2015-06-15

    Drug combinations are a promising strategy for combating complex diseases by improving the efficacy and reducing corresponding side effects. Currently, a widely studied problem in pharmacology is to predict effective drug combinations, either through empirically screening in clinic or pure experimental trials. However, the large-scale prediction of drug combination by a systems method is rarely considered. We report a systems pharmacology framework to predict drug combinations (PreDCs) on a computational model, termed probability ensemble approach (PEA), for analysis of both the efficacy and adverse effects of drug combinations. First, a Bayesian network integrating with a similarity algorithm is developed to model the combinations from drug molecular and pharmacological phenotypes, and the predictions are then assessed with both clinical efficacy and adverse effects. It is illustrated that PEA can predict the combination efficacy of drugs spanning different therapeutic classes with high specificity and sensitivity (AUC = 0.90), which was further validated by independent data or new experimental assays. PEA also evaluates the adverse effects (AUC = 0.95) quantitatively and detects the therapeutic indications for drug combinations. Finally, the PreDC database includes 1571 known and 3269 predicted optimal combinations as well as their potential side effects and therapeutic indications. The PreDC database is available at http://sm.nwsuaf.edu.cn/lsp/predc.php. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Development of quantification methods for the myocardial blood flow using ensemble independent component analysis for dynamic H215O PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Byeong Il; Lee, Jae Sung; Lee, Dong Soo; Kang, Won Jun; Lee, Jong Jin; Kim, Soo Jin; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul; Choi, Seung Jin

    2004-01-01

    Factor analysis and independent component analysis (lCA) has been used for handling dynamic image sequences. Theoretical advantages of a newly suggested ICA method, ensemble ICA, leaded us to consider applying this method to the analysis of dynamic myocardial H 2 15 O PET data. In this study, we quantified patients, blood flow using the ensemble ICA method. Twenty subjects underwent H 2 15 O PET scans using ECAT EXACT 47 scanner and myocardial perfusion SPECT using Vertex scanner. After transmission scanning, dynamic emission scans were initiated simultaneously with the injection of 555∼740 MBq H 2 15 O. Hidden independent components can be extracted from the observed mixed data (PET image) by means of ICA algorithms. Ensemble learning is a variational Bayesian method that provides an analytical approximation to the parameter posterior using a tractable distribution. Variational approximation forms a lower bound on the ensemble likelihood and the maximization of the lower bound is achieved through minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true posterior and the variational posterior. In this study, posterior pdf was approximated by a rectified Gaussian distribution to incorporate non-negativity constraint, which is suitable to dynamic images in nuclear medicine. Blood flow was measured in 9 regions - apex, four areas in mid wall, and four areas in base wall. Myocardial perfusion SPECT score and angiography results were compared with the regional blood flow. Major cardiac components were separated successfully by the ensemble ICA method and blood flow could be estimated in 15 among 20 patients. Mean myocardial blood flow was 1.2±0.40 ml/min/g in rest, 1.85±1.12 ml/min/g in stress state. Blood flow values obtained by an operator in two different occasion were highly correlated (r=0.99). In myocardium component image, the image contrast between left ventricle and myocardium was 1:2.7 in average. Perfusion reserve was significantly different between

  17. A MITgcm/DART ensemble analysis and prediction system with application to the Gulf of Mexico

    KAUST Repository

    Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hoar, Timothy J.; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Collins, Nancy S.; Anderson, Jeffrey L.; Cornuelle, Bruce D.; Kö hl, Armin; Heimbach, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Research Testbed (DART) assimilation package with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ocean general circulation model (MITgcm). The MITgcm/DART system supports the assimilation of a wide range of ocean observations and uses an ensemble approach

  18. MVL spatiotemporal analysis for model intercomparison in EPS: application to the DEMETER multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, J.; Primo, C.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Rodríguez, M. A.

    2009-08-01

    In a recent paper, Gutiérrez et al. (Nonlinear Process Geophys 15(1):109-114, 2008) introduced a new characterization of spatiotemporal error growth—the so called mean-variance logarithmic (MVL) diagram—and applied it to study ensemble prediction systems (EPS); in particular, they analyzed single-model ensembles obtained by perturbing the initial conditions. In the present work, the MVL diagram is applied to multi-model ensembles analyzing also the effect of model formulation differences. To this aim, the MVL diagram is systematically applied to the multi-model ensemble produced in the EU-funded DEMETER project. It is shown that the shared building blocks (atmospheric and ocean components) impose similar dynamics among different models and, thus, contribute to poorly sampling the model formulation uncertainty. This dynamical similarity should be taken into account, at least as a pre-screening process, before applying any objective weighting method.

  19. Removal of artifacts in knee joint vibroarthrographic signals using ensemble empirical mode decomposition and detrended fluctuation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yunfeng; Yang, Shanshan; Zheng, Fang; Cai, Suxian; Lu, Meng; Wu, Meihong

    2014-01-01

    High-resolution knee joint vibroarthrographic (VAG) signals can help physicians accurately evaluate the pathological condition of a degenerative knee joint, in order to prevent unnecessary exploratory surgery. Artifact cancellation is vital to preserve the quality of VAG signals prior to further computer-aided analysis. This paper describes a novel method that effectively utilizes ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) algorithms for the removal of baseline wander and white noise in VAG signal processing. The EEMD method first successively decomposes the raw VAG signal into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with fast and low oscillations, until the monotonic baseline wander remains in the last residue. Then, the DFA algorithm is applied to compute the fractal scaling index parameter for each IMF, in order to identify the anti-correlation and the long-range correlation components. Next, the DFA algorithm can be used to identify the anti-correlated and the long-range correlated IMFs, which assists in reconstructing the artifact-reduced VAG signals. Our experimental results showed that the combination of EEMD and DFA algorithms was able to provide averaged signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) values of 20.52 dB (standard deviation: 1.14 dB) and 20.87 dB (standard deviation: 1.89 dB) for 45 normal signals in healthy subjects and 20 pathological signals in symptomatic patients, respectively. The combination of EEMD and DFA algorithms can ameliorate the quality of VAG signals with great SNR improvements over the raw signal, and the results were also superior to those achieved by wavelet matching pursuit decomposition and time-delay neural filter. (paper)

  20. Ensembl 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Aken, Bronwen L.; Achuthan, Premanand; Akanni, Wasiu; Amode, M. Ridwan; Bernsdorff, Friederike; Bhai, Jyothish; Billis, Konstantinos; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Cummins, Carla; Clapham, Peter; Gil, Laurent; Gir?n, Carlos Garc?a; Gordon, Leo; Hourlier, Thibaut; Hunt, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    Ensembl (www.ensembl.org) is a database and genome browser for enabling research on vertebrate genomes. We import, analyse, curate and integrate a diverse collection of large-scale reference data to create a more comprehensive view of genome biology than would be possible from any individual dataset. Our extensive data resources include evidence-based gene and regulatory region annotation, genome variation and gene trees. An accompanying suite of tools, infrastructure and programmatic access ...

  1. Ensemble Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Xiuyuan; Van Roy, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for simple special cases. This paper develops ensemble sampling, which aims to approximate Thompson sampling while maintaining tractability even in the face of complex models such as neural networks. Ensemble sampling dramatically expands on the range of applica...

  2. Classifying injury narratives of large administrative databases for surveillance-A practical approach combining machine learning ensembles and human review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marucci-Wellman, Helen R; Corns, Helen L; Lehto, Mark R

    2017-01-01

    Injury narratives are now available real time and include useful information for injury surveillance and prevention. However, manual classification of the cause or events leading to injury found in large batches of narratives, such as workers compensation claims databases, can be prohibitive. In this study we compare the utility of four machine learning algorithms (Naïve Bayes, Single word and Bi-gram models, Support Vector Machine and Logistic Regression) for classifying narratives into Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Injury and Illness event leading to injury classifications for a large workers compensation database. These algorithms are known to do well classifying narrative text and are fairly easy to implement with off-the-shelf software packages such as Python. We propose human-machine learning ensemble approaches which maximize the power and accuracy of the algorithms for machine-assigned codes and allow for strategic filtering of rare, emerging or ambiguous narratives for manual review. We compare human-machine approaches based on filtering on the prediction strength of the classifier vs. agreement between algorithms. Regularized Logistic Regression (LR) was the best performing algorithm alone. Using this algorithm and filtering out the bottom 30% of predictions for manual review resulted in high accuracy (overall sensitivity/positive predictive value of 0.89) of the final machine-human coded dataset. The best pairings of algorithms included Naïve Bayes with Support Vector Machine whereby the triple ensemble NB SW =NB BI-GRAM =SVM had very high performance (0.93 overall sensitivity/positive predictive value and high accuracy (i.e. high sensitivity and positive predictive values)) across both large and small categories leaving 41% of the narratives for manual review. Integrating LR into this ensemble mix improved performance only slightly. For large administrative datasets we propose incorporation of methods based on human-machine pairings such as

  3. Investigating properties of the cardiovascular system using innovative analysis algorithms based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Jia-Rong; Lin, Tzu-Yu; Chen, Yun; Sun, Wei-Zen; Abbod, Maysam F; Shieh, Jiann-Shing

    2012-01-01

    Cardiovascular system is known to be nonlinear and nonstationary. Traditional linear assessments algorithms of arterial stiffness and systemic resistance of cardiac system accompany the problem of nonstationary or inconvenience in practical applications. In this pilot study, two new assessment methods were developed: the first is ensemble empirical mode decomposition based reflection index (EEMD-RI) while the second is based on the phase shift between ECG and BP on cardiac oscillation. Both methods utilise the EEMD algorithm which is suitable for nonlinear and nonstationary systems. These methods were used to investigate the properties of arterial stiffness and systemic resistance for a pig's cardiovascular system via ECG and blood pressure (BP). This experiment simulated a sequence of continuous changes of blood pressure arising from steady condition to high blood pressure by clamping the artery and an inverse by relaxing the artery. As a hypothesis, the arterial stiffness and systemic resistance should vary with the blood pressure due to clamping and relaxing the artery. The results show statistically significant correlations between BP, EEMD-based RI, and the phase shift between ECG and BP on cardiac oscillation. The two assessments results demonstrate the merits of the EEMD for signal analysis.

  4. Dysphonic Voice Pattern Analysis of Patients in Parkinson’s Disease Using Minimum Interclass Probability Risk Feature Selection and Bagging Ensemble Learning Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunfeng Wu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of quantified voice patterns is useful in the detection and assessment of dysphonia and related phonation disorders. In this paper, we first study the linear correlations between 22 voice parameters of fundamental frequency variability, amplitude variations, and nonlinear measures. The highly correlated vocal parameters are combined by using the linear discriminant analysis method. Based on the probability density functions estimated by the Parzen-window technique, we propose an interclass probability risk (ICPR method to select the vocal parameters with small ICPR values as dominant features and compare with the modified Kullback-Leibler divergence (MKLD feature selection approach. The experimental results show that the generalized logistic regression analysis (GLRA, support vector machine (SVM, and Bagging ensemble algorithm input with the ICPR features can provide better classification results than the same classifiers with the MKLD selected features. The SVM is much better at distinguishing normal vocal patterns with a specificity of 0.8542. Among the three classification methods, the Bagging ensemble algorithm with ICPR features can identify 90.77% vocal patterns, with the highest sensitivity of 0.9796 and largest area value of 0.9558 under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The classification results demonstrate the effectiveness of our feature selection and pattern analysis methods for dysphonic voice detection and measurement.

  5. Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Zhu, Jieshun; Li, Zhongxian; Chen, Haishan; Zeng, Gang

    2017-08-01

    This study examined the global sea surface temperature (SST) predictions by a so-called multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization method which was applied in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). Different from most operational climate prediction practices which are initialized by a specific ocean analysis system, the MAE method is based on multiple ocean analyses. In the paper, the MAE method was first justified by analyzing the ocean temperature variability in four ocean analyses which all are/were applied for operational climate predictions either at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts or at NCEP. It was found that these systems exhibit substantial uncertainties in estimating the ocean states, especially at the deep layers. Further, a set of MAE hindcasts was conducted based on the four ocean analyses with CFSv2, starting from each April during 1982-2007. The MAE hindcasts were verified against a subset of hindcasts from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project. Comparisons suggested that MAE shows better SST predictions than CFSRR over most regions where ocean dynamics plays a vital role in SST evolutions, such as the El Niño and Atlantic Niño regions. Furthermore, significant improvements were also found in summer precipitation predictions over the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, for which the local SST prediction improvements should be responsible. The prediction improvements by MAE imply a problem for most current climate predictions which are based on a specific ocean analysis system. That is, their predictions would drift towards states biased by errors inherent in their ocean initialization system, and thus have large prediction errors. In contrast, MAE arguably has an advantage by sampling such structural uncertainties, and could efficiently cancel these errors out in their predictions.

  6. A Link-Based Cluster Ensemble Approach For Improved Gene Expression Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.Balaji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract It is difficult from possibilities to select a most suitable effective way of clustering algorithm and its dataset for a defined set of gene expression data because we have a huge number of ways and huge number of gene expressions. At present many researchers are preferring to use hierarchical clustering in different forms this is no more totally optimal. Cluster ensemble research can solve this type of problem by automatically merging multiple data partitions from a wide range of different clusterings of any dimensions to improve both the quality and robustness of the clustering result. But we have many existing ensemble approaches using an association matrix to condense sample-cluster and co-occurrence statistics and relations within the ensemble are encapsulated only at raw level while the existing among clusters are totally discriminated. Finding these missing associations can greatly expand the capability of those ensemble methodologies for microarray data clustering. We propose general K-means cluster ensemble approach for the clustering of general categorical data into required number of partitions.

  7. Aβ monomers transiently sample oligomer and fibril-like configurations: ensemble characterization using a combined MD/NMR approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenman, David J; Connors, Christopher R; Chen, Wen; Wang, Chunyu; García, Angel E

    2013-09-23

    Amyloid β (Aβ) peptides are a primary component of fibrils and oligomers implicated in the etiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the intrinsic flexibility of these peptides has frustrated efforts to investigate the secondary and tertiary structure of Aβ monomers, whose conformational landscapes directly contribute to the kinetics and thermodynamics of Aβ aggregation. In this work, de novo replica exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) simulations on the microseconds-per-replica timescale are used to characterize the structural ensembles of Aβ42, Aβ40, and M35-oxidized Aβ42, three physiologically relevant isoforms with substantially different aggregation properties. J-coupling data calculated from the REMD trajectories were compared to corresponding NMR-derived values acquired through two different pulse sequences, revealing that all simulations converge on the order of hundreds of nanoseconds-per-replica toward ensembles that yield good agreement with experiment. Though all three Aβ species adopt highly heterogeneous ensembles, these are considerably more structured compared to simulations on shorter timescales. Prominent in the C-terminus are antiparallel β-hairpins between L17-A21, A30-L36, and V39-I41, similar to oligomer and fibril intrapeptide models that expose these hydrophobic side chains to solvent and may serve as hotspots for self-association. Compared to reduced Aβ42, the absence of a second β-hairpin in Aβ40 and the sampling of alternate β topologies by M35-oxidized Aβ42 may explain the reduced aggregation rates of these forms. A persistent V24-K28 bend motif, observed in all three species, is stabilized by buried backbone to side-chain hydrogen bonds with D23 and a cross-region salt bridge between E22 and K28, highlighting the role of the familial AD-linked E22 and D23 residues in Aβ monomer folding. These characterizations help illustrate the conformational landscapes of Aβ monomers at atomic resolution and provide insight into

  8. An Ensemble Analysis of Antarctic Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecavalier, B.; Tarasov, L.

    2016-12-01

    Inferences of past ice sheet evolution that lack any uncertainty assessment (implicit or explicit), have little value. A developing technique for explicit uncertainty quantification of glacial systems is Bayesian calibration of models against large observational data-sets (Tarasov et al., 2012). The foundation for a Bayesian calibration of a 3D glacial systems model (GSM) for Antarctica has recently been completed (Briggs et al., 2013; 2014; Briggs and Tarasov, 2013). Bayesian calibration thoroughly samples model uncertainties against fits to observational data to generate a probability distribution for the Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation with explicit and well-defined confidence intervals. To have validity as a complete inference of past ice sheet evolution, Bayesian calibration requires a model that "brackets reality".Past work has shown the GSM to have likely inadequate range of grounding line migration in certain sectors as well as persistent ice thickness biases in topographically complex regions (Briggs et al., 2014). To advance towards full calibration, these deficiencies are being addressed through a number of model developments. The grounding line scheme has been revised (Pollard and DeConto, 2012), the horizontal resolution is increased to 20 km, and boundary conditions are updated. The basal drag representation now includes the sub-grid treatment of the thermo-mechanical impacts of high basal roughness. Parametric uncertainties in basal drag for regions that are presently marine have been re-evaluated. The impact of past changes in ocean temperature on sub ice shelf melt is explicitly incorporated in the current ocean forcing parametric scheme. Uncertainties in earth rheology are also probed to robustly quantify uncertainties affiliated with glacial isostatic adjustment. The ensemble analysis of the Antarctic glacial system provides dynamical bounds on past and present Antarctica glacial isostatic adjustment and sea level contributions. This research

  9. Analysis of ensemble learning using simple perceptrons based on online learning theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyoshi, Seiji; Hara, Kazuyuki; Okada, Masato

    2005-03-01

    Ensemble learning of K nonlinear perceptrons, which determine their outputs by sign functions, is discussed within the framework of online learning and statistical mechanics. One purpose of statistical learning theory is to theoretically obtain the generalization error. This paper shows that ensemble generalization error can be calculated by using two order parameters, that is, the similarity between a teacher and a student, and the similarity among students. The differential equations that describe the dynamical behaviors of these order parameters are derived in the case of general learning rules. The concrete forms of these differential equations are derived analytically in the cases of three well-known rules: Hebbian learning, perceptron learning, and AdaTron (adaptive perceptron) learning. Ensemble generalization errors of these three rules are calculated by using the results determined by solving their differential equations. As a result, these three rules show different characteristics in their affinity for ensemble learning, that is “maintaining variety among students.” Results show that AdaTron learning is superior to the other two rules with respect to that affinity.

  10. An Efficient Ensemble Learning Method for Gene Microarray Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Osareh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The gene microarray analysis and classification have demonstrated an effective way for the effective diagnosis of diseases and cancers. However, it has been also revealed that the basic classification techniques have intrinsic drawbacks in achieving accurate gene classification and cancer diagnosis. On the other hand, classifier ensembles have received increasing attention in various applications. Here, we address the gene classification issue using RotBoost ensemble methodology. This method is a combination of Rotation Forest and AdaBoost techniques which in turn preserve both desirable features of an ensemble architecture, that is, accuracy and diversity. To select a concise subset of informative genes, 5 different feature selection algorithms are considered. To assess the efficiency of the RotBoost, other nonensemble/ensemble techniques including Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, Rotation Forest, AdaBoost, and Bagging are also deployed. Experimental results have revealed that the combination of the fast correlation-based feature selection method with ICA-based RotBoost ensemble is highly effective for gene classification. In fact, the proposed method can create ensemble classifiers which outperform not only the classifiers produced by the conventional machine learning but also the classifiers generated by two widely used conventional ensemble learning methods, that is, Bagging and AdaBoost.

  11. Squeezing of Collective Excitations in Spin Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraglund Andersen, Christian; Mølmer, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    We analyse the possibility to create two-mode spin squeezed states of two separate spin ensembles by inverting the spins in one ensemble and allowing spin exchange between the ensembles via a near resonant cavity field. We investigate the dynamics of the system using a combination of numerical an...

  12. Ensembl 2002: accommodating comparative genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clamp, M; Andrews, D; Barker, D; Bevan, P; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hubbard, T; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Lehvaslaiho, H; Iyer, V; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Birney, E

    2003-01-01

    The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of human, mouse and other genome sequences, available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. Ensembl also integrates manually annotated gene structures from external sources where available. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. These range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation and installations exist around the world in both companies and at academic sites. With both human and mouse genome sequences available and more vertebrate sequences to follow, many of the recent developments in Ensembl have focusing on developing automatic comparative genome analysis and visualisation.

  13. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Haakon

    2016-01-08

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

  14. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Haakon; Chernov, Alexey; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

  15. Stochastic resonance of ensemble neurons for transient spike trains: Wavelet analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Hideo

    2002-01-01

    By using the wavelet transformation (WT), I have analyzed the response of an ensemble of N (=1, 10, 100, and 500) Hodgkin-Huxley neurons to transient M-pulse spike trains (M=1 to 3) with independent Gaussian noises. The cross correlation between the input and output signals is expressed in terms of the WT expansion coefficients. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is evaluated by using the denoising method within the WT, by which the noise contribution is extracted from the output signals. Although the response of a single (N=1) neuron to subthreshold transient signals with noises is quite unreliable, the transmission fidelity assessed by the cross correlation and SNR is shown to be much improved by increasing the value of N: a population of neurons plays an indispensable role in the stochastic resonance (SR) for transient spike inputs. It is also shown that in a large-scale ensemble, the transmission fidelity for suprathreshold transient spikes is not significantly degraded by a weak noise which is responsible to SR for subthreshold inputs

  16. Uncertainty analysis of neural network based flood forecasting models: An ensemble based approach for constructing prediction interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasiviswanathan, K.; Sudheer, K.

    2013-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) based hydrologic models have gained lot of attention among water resources engineers and scientists, owing to their potential for accurate prediction of flood flows as compared to conceptual or physics based hydrologic models. The ANN approximates the non-linear functional relationship between the complex hydrologic variables in arriving at the river flow forecast values. Despite a large number of applications, there is still some criticism that ANN's point prediction lacks in reliability since the uncertainty of predictions are not quantified, and it limits its use in practical applications. A major concern in application of traditional uncertainty analysis techniques on neural network framework is its parallel computing architecture with large degrees of freedom, which makes the uncertainty assessment a challenging task. Very limited studies have considered assessment of predictive uncertainty of ANN based hydrologic models. In this study, a novel method is proposed that help construct the prediction interval of ANN flood forecasting model during calibration itself. The method is designed to have two stages of optimization during calibration: at stage 1, the ANN model is trained with genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain optimal set of weights and biases vector, and during stage 2, the optimal variability of ANN parameters (obtained in stage 1) is identified so as to create an ensemble of predictions. During the 2nd stage, the optimization is performed with multiple objectives, (i) minimum residual variance for the ensemble mean, (ii) maximum measured data points to fall within the estimated prediction interval and (iii) minimum width of prediction interval. The method is illustrated using a real world case study of an Indian basin. The method was able to produce an ensemble that has an average prediction interval width of 23.03 m3/s, with 97.17% of the total validation data points (measured) lying within the interval. The derived

  17. Invariant methods for an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis of a passive containment cooling system of an AP1000 nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Maio, Francesco; Nicola, Giancarlo; Borgonovo, Emanuele; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is performed to gain fundamental insights on a system behavior that is usually reproduced by a model and to identify the most relevant input variables whose variations affect the system model functional response. For the reliability analysis of passive safety systems of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), models are Best Estimate (BE) Thermal Hydraulic (TH) codes, that predict the system functional response in normal and accidental conditions and, in this paper, an ensemble of three alternative invariant SA methods is innovatively set up for a SA on the TH code input variables. The ensemble aggregates the input variables raking orders provided by Pearson correlation ratio, Delta method and Beta method. The capability of the ensemble is shown on a BE–TH code of the Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) of an Advanced Pressurized water reactor AP1000, during a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA), whose output probability density function (pdf) is approximated by a Finite Mixture Model (FMM), on the basis of a limited number of simulations. - Highlights: • We perform the reliability analysis of a passive safety system of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). • We use a Thermal Hydraulic (TH) code for predicting the NPP response to accidents. • We propose an ensemble of Invariant Methods for the sensitivity analysis of the TH code • The ensemble aggregates the rankings of Pearson correlation, Delta and Beta methods. • The approach is tested on a Passive Containment Cooling System of an AP1000 NPP.

  18. Effective screening strategy using ensembled pharmacophore models combined with cascade docking: application to p53-MDM2 interaction inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Xin; Wei, Jin-Lian; Xu, Li-Li; Xi, Mei-Yang; Xu, Xiao-Li; Liu, Fang; Guo, Xiao-Ke; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Xiao-Jin; Zhang, Ming-Ye; Lu, Meng-Chen; Sun, Hao-Peng; You, Qi-Dong

    2013-10-28

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) play a crucial role in cellular function and form the backbone of almost all biochemical processes. In recent years, protein-protein interaction inhibitors (PPIIs) have represented a treasure trove of potential new drug targets. Unfortunately, there are few successful drugs of PPIIs on the market. Structure-based pharmacophore (SBP) combined with docking has been demonstrated as a useful Virtual Screening (VS) strategy in drug development projects. However, the combination of target complexity and poor binding affinity prediction has thwarted the application of this strategy in the discovery of PPIIs. Here we report an effective VS strategy on p53-MDM2 PPI. First, we built a SBP model based on p53-MDM2 complex cocrystal structures. The model was then simplified by using a Receptor-Ligand complex-based pharmacophore model considering the critical binding features between MDM2 and its small molecular inhibitors. Cascade docking was subsequently applied to improve the hit rate. Based on this strategy, we performed VS on NCI and SPECS databases and successfully discovered 6 novel compounds from 15 hits with the best, compound 1 (NSC 5359), K(i) = 180 ± 50 nM. These compounds can serve as lead compounds for further optimization.

  19. Contact planarization of ensemble nanowires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chia, A. C. E.; LaPierre, R. R.

    2011-06-01

    The viability of four organic polymers (S1808, SC200, SU8 and Cyclotene) as filling materials to achieve planarization of ensemble nanowire arrays is reported. Analysis of the porosity, surface roughness and thermal stability of each filling material was performed. Sonication was used as an effective method to remove the tops of the nanowires (NWs) to achieve complete planarization. Ensemble nanowire devices were fully fabricated and I-V measurements confirmed that Cyclotene effectively planarizes the NWs while still serving the role as an insulating layer between the top and bottom contacts. These processes and analysis can be easily implemented into future characterization and fabrication of ensemble NWs for optoelectronic device applications.

  20. Localizing internal friction along the reaction coordinate of protein folding by combining ensemble and single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgia, Alessandro; Wensley, Beth G.; Soranno, Andrea; Nettels, Daniel; Borgia, Madeleine B.; Hoffmann, Armin; Pfeil, Shawn H.; Lipman, Everett A.; Clarke, Jane; Schuler, Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Theory, simulations and experimental results have suggested an important role of internal friction in the kinetics of protein folding. Recent experiments on spectrin domains provided the first evidence for a pronounced contribution of internal friction in proteins that fold on the millisecond timescale. However, it has remained unclear how this contribution is distributed along the reaction and what influence it has on the folding dynamics. Here we use a combination of single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer, nanosecond fluorescence correlation spectroscopy, microfluidic mixing and denaturant- and viscosity-dependent protein-folding kinetics to probe internal friction in the unfolded state and at the early and late transition states of slow- and fast-folding spectrin domains. We find that the internal friction affecting the folding rates of spectrin domains is highly localized to the early transition state, suggesting an important role of rather specific interactions in the rate-limiting conformational changes. PMID:23149740

  1. On the structure and phase transitions of power-law Poissonian ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliazar, Iddo; Oshanin, Gleb

    2012-10-01

    Power-law Poissonian ensembles are Poisson processes that are defined on the positive half-line, and that are governed by power-law intensities. Power-law Poissonian ensembles are stochastic objects of fundamental significance; they uniquely display an array of fractal features and they uniquely generate a span of important applications. In this paper we apply three different methods—oligarchic analysis, Lorenzian analysis and heterogeneity analysis—to explore power-law Poissonian ensembles. The amalgamation of these analyses, combined with the topology of power-law Poissonian ensembles, establishes a detailed and multi-faceted picture of the statistical structure and the statistical phase transitions of these elemental ensembles.

  2. Coupling GIS spatial analysis and Ensemble Niche Modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle Emys trinacris, an endangered species from the Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mattia Iannella

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The pond turtle Emys trinacris is an endangered endemic species of Sicily showing a fragmented distribution throughout the main island. In this study, we applied “Ensemble Niche Modelling”, combining more classical statistical techniques as Generalized Linear Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with machine-learning approaches as Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, to model the potential distribution of the species under current and future climatic conditions. Moreover, a “gap analysis” performed on both the species’ presence sites and the predictions from the Ensemble Models is proposed to integrate outputs from these models, in order to assess the conservation status of this threatened species in the context of biodiversity management. For this aim, four “Representative Concentration Pathways”, corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissions trajectories were considered to project the obtained models to both 2050 and 2070. Areas lost, gained or remaining stable for the target species in the projected models were calculated. E. trinacris’ potential distribution resulted to be significantly dependent upon precipitation-linked variables, mainly precipitation of wettest and coldest quarter. Future negative effects for the conservation of this species, because of more unstable precipitation patterns and extreme meteorological events, emerged from our analyses. Further, the sites currently inhabited by E. trinacris are, for more than a half, out of the Protected Areas network, highlighting an inadequate management of the species by the authorities responsible for its protection. Our results, therefore, suggest that in the next future the Sicilian pond turtle will need the utmost attention by the scientific community to avoid the imminent risk of extinction. Finally, the gap analysis performed in GIS environment resulted to be a very informative post-modeling technique, potentially applicable to the management

  3. Statistical analysis of time-resolved emission from ensembles of semiconductor quantum dots: Interpretation of exponential decay models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Driel, A.F.; Nikolaev, I.S.; Vergeer, P.

    2007-01-01

    We present a statistical analysis of time-resolved spontaneous emission decay curves from ensembles of emitters, such as semiconductor quantum dots, with the aim of interpreting ubiquitous non-single-exponential decay. Contrary to what is widely assumed, the density of excited emitters...... and the intensity in an emission decay curve are not proportional, but the density is a time integral of the intensity. The integral relation is crucial to correctly interpret non-single-exponential decay. We derive the proper normalization for both a discrete and a continuous distribution of rates, where every...... decay component is multiplied by its radiative decay rate. A central result of our paper is the derivation of the emission decay curve when both radiative and nonradiative decays are independently distributed. In this case, the well-known emission quantum efficiency can no longer be expressed...

  4. Ensemble Analysis of Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Distributed Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Koren, V.

    2008-12-01

    A prototype 4DVAR (four-dimensional variational) data assimilator for gridded Sacramento soil-moisture accounting and kinematic-wave routing models in the Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) has been developed. The prototype assimilates streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data and adjusts gridded precipitation and climatological potential evaporation data to reduce uncertainty in the model initial conditions for improved monitoring and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture at the outlet and interior locations within the catchment. Due to large degrees of freedom involved, data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is complex. To understand and assess sensitivity of the performance of DA to uncertainties in the model initial conditions and in the data, two synthetic experiments have been carried out in an ensemble framework. Results from the synthetic experiments shed much light on the potential and limitations with DA into distributed models. For initial real-world assessment, the prototype DA has also been applied to the headwater basin at Eldon near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. We present these results and describe the next steps.

  5. The Ensembl genome database project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, T; Barker, D; Birney, E; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Huminiecki, L; Kasprzyk, A; Lehvaslaiho, H; Lijnzaad, P; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Pocock, M; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Clamp, M

    2002-01-01

    The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of the human genome sequence, with confirmed gene predictions that have been integrated with external data sources, and is available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. It is also an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation. The Ensembl site is one of the leading sources of human genome sequence annotation and provided much of the analysis for publication by the international human genome project of the draft genome. The Ensembl system is being installed around the world in both companies and academic sites on machines ranging from supercomputers to laptops.

  6. A study of fuzzy logic ensemble system performance on face recognition problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakova, A.; Lipinskiy, L.

    2017-02-01

    Some problems are difficult to solve by using a single intelligent information technology (IIT). The ensemble of the various data mining (DM) techniques is a set of models which are able to solve the problem by itself, but the combination of which allows increasing the efficiency of the system as a whole. Using the IIT ensembles can improve the reliability and efficiency of the final decision, since it emphasizes on the diversity of its components. The new method of the intellectual informational technology ensemble design is considered in this paper. It is based on the fuzzy logic and is designed to solve the classification and regression problems. The ensemble consists of several data mining algorithms: artificial neural network, support vector machine and decision trees. These algorithms and their ensemble have been tested by solving the face recognition problems. Principal components analysis (PCA) is used for feature selection.

  7. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2017-10-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  8. Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun

    2012-01-01

    Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have

  9. GIS-based groundwater potential analysis using novel ensemble weights-of-evidence with logistic regression and functional tree models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei; Li, Hui; Hou, Enke; Wang, Shengquan; Wang, Guirong; Panahi, Mahdi; Li, Tao; Peng, Tao; Guo, Chen; Niu, Chao; Xiao, Lele; Wang, Jiale; Xie, Xiaoshen; Ahmad, Baharin Bin

    2018-09-01

    The aim of the current study was to produce groundwater spring potential maps using novel ensemble weights-of-evidence (WoE) with logistic regression (LR) and functional tree (FT) models. First, a total of 66 springs were identified by field surveys, out of which 70% of the spring locations were used for training the models and 30% of the spring locations were employed for the validation process. Second, a total of 14 affecting factors including aspect, altitude, slope, plan curvature, profile curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), sediment transport index (STI), lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use, soil, distance to roads, and distance to streams was used to analyze the spatial relationship between these affecting factors and spring occurrences. Multicollinearity analysis and feature selection of the correlation attribute evaluation (CAE) method were employed to optimize the affecting factors. Subsequently, the novel ensembles of the WoE, LR, and FT models were constructed using the training dataset. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, standard error, confidence interval (CI) at 95%, and significance level P were employed to validate and compare the performance of three models. Overall, all three models performed well for groundwater spring potential evaluation. The prediction capability of the FT model, with the highest AUC values, the smallest standard errors, the narrowest CIs, and the smallest P values for the training and validation datasets, is better compared to those of other models. The groundwater spring potential maps can be adopted for the management of water resources and land use by planners and engineers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Self Organizing Maps to efficiently cluster and functionally interpret protein conformational ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Stella

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available An approach that combines Self-Organizing maps, hierarchical clustering and network components is presented, aimed at comparing protein conformational ensembles obtained from multiple Molecular Dynamic simulations. As a first result the original ensembles can be summarized by using only the representative conformations of the clusters obtained. In addition the network components analysis allows to discover and interpret the dynamic behavior of the conformations won by each neuron. The results showed the ability of this approach to efficiently derive a functional interpretation of the protein dynamics described by the original conformational ensemble, highlighting its potential as a support for protein engineering.

  11. Energy Analysis in Combined Reforming of Propane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Moon

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Combined (steam and CO2 reforming is one of the methods to produce syngas for different applications. An energy requirement analysis of steam reforming to dry reforming with intermediate steps of steam reduction and equivalent CO2 addition to the feed fuel for syngas generation has been done to identify condition for optimum process operation. Thermodynamic equilibrium data for combined reforming was generated for temperature range of 400–1000°C at 1 bar pressure and combined oxidant (CO2 + H2O stream to propane (fuel ratio of 3, 6, and 9 by employing the Gibbs free energy minimization algorithm of HSC Chemistry software 5.1. Total energy requirement including preheating and reaction enthalpy calculations were done using the equilibrium product composition. Carbon and methane formation was significantly reduced in combined reforming than pure dry reforming, while the energy requirements were lower than pure steam reforming. Temperatures of minimum energy requirement were found in the data analysis of combined reforming which were optimum for the process.

  12. A comparative research of different ensemble surrogate models based on set pair analysis for the DNAPL-contaminated aquifer remediation strategy optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Zeyu; Lu, Wenxi; Xue, Haibo; Lin, Jin

    2017-08-01

    Surrogate-based simulation-optimization technique is an effective approach for optimizing the surfactant enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for clearing DNAPLs. The performance of the surrogate model, which is used to replace the simulation model for the aim of reducing computation burden, is the key of corresponding researches. However, previous researches are generally based on a stand-alone surrogate model, and rarely make efforts to improve the approximation accuracy of the surrogate model to the simulation model sufficiently by combining various methods. In this regard, we present set pair analysis (SPA) as a new method to build ensemble surrogate (ES) model, and conducted a comparative research to select a better ES modeling pattern for the SEAR strategy optimization problems. Surrogate models were developed using radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), support vector regression (SVR), and Kriging. One ES model is assembling RBFANN model, SVR model, and Kriging model using set pair weights according their performance, and the other is assembling several Kriging (the best surrogate modeling method of three) models built with different training sample datasets. Finally, an optimization model, in which the ES model was embedded, was established to obtain the optimal remediation strategy. The results showed the residuals of the outputs between the best ES model and simulation model for 100 testing samples were lower than 1.5%. Using an ES model instead of the simulation model was critical for considerably reducing the computation time of simulation-optimization process and maintaining high computation accuracy simultaneously.

  13. Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano

    2016-05-05

    Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances. © 2016 The Author(s).

  14. Evaluation of LDA Ensembles Classifiers for Brain Computer Interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arjona, Cristian; Pentácolo, José; Gareis, Iván; Atum, Yanina; Gentiletti, Gerardo; Acevedo, Rubén; Rufiner, Leonardo

    2011-01-01

    The Brain Computer Interface (BCI) translates brain activity into computer commands. To increase the performance of the BCI, to decode the user intentions it is necessary to get better the feature extraction and classification techniques. In this article the performance of a three linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers ensemble is studied. The system based on ensemble can theoretically achieved better classification results than the individual counterpart, regarding individual classifier generation algorithm and the procedures for combine their outputs. Classic algorithms based on ensembles such as bagging and boosting are discussed here. For the application on BCI, it was concluded that the generated results using ER and AUC as performance index do not give enough information to establish which configuration is better.

  15. An Improved Ensemble of Random Vector Functional Link Networks Based on Particle Swarm Optimization with Double Optimization Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Qing-Hua; Song, Yu-Qing; Han, Fei; Yang, Dan; Huang, De-Shuang

    2016-01-01

    For ensemble learning, how to select and combine the candidate classifiers are two key issues which influence the performance of the ensemble system dramatically. Random vector functional link networks (RVFL) without direct input-to-output links is one of suitable base-classifiers for ensemble systems because of its fast learning speed, simple structure and good generalization performance. In this paper, to obtain a more compact ensemble system with improved convergence performance, an improved ensemble of RVFL based on attractive and repulsive particle swarm optimization (ARPSO) with double optimization strategy is proposed. In the proposed method, ARPSO is applied to select and combine the candidate RVFL. As for using ARPSO to select the optimal base RVFL, ARPSO considers both the convergence accuracy on the validation data and the diversity of the candidate ensemble system to build the RVFL ensembles. In the process of combining RVFL, the ensemble weights corresponding to the base RVFL are initialized by the minimum norm least-square method and then further optimized by ARPSO. Finally, a few redundant RVFL is pruned, and thus the more compact ensemble of RVFL is obtained. Moreover, in this paper, theoretical analysis and justification on how to prune the base classifiers on classification problem is presented, and a simple and practically feasible strategy for pruning redundant base classifiers on both classification and regression problems is proposed. Since the double optimization is performed on the basis of the single optimization, the ensemble of RVFL built by the proposed method outperforms that built by some single optimization methods. Experiment results on function approximation and classification problems verify that the proposed method could improve its convergence accuracy as well as reduce the complexity of the ensemble system.

  16. Quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuld, Maria; Petruccione, Francesco

    2018-02-09

    Quantum machine learning witnesses an increasing amount of quantum algorithms for data-driven decision making, a problem with potential applications ranging from automated image recognition to medical diagnosis. Many of those algorithms are implementations of quantum classifiers, or models for the classification of data inputs with a quantum computer. Following the success of collective decision making with ensembles in classical machine learning, this paper introduces the concept of quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers. Creating the ensemble corresponds to a state preparation routine, after which the quantum classifiers are evaluated in parallel and their combined decision is accessed by a single-qubit measurement. This framework naturally allows for exponentially large ensembles in which - similar to Bayesian learning - the individual classifiers do not have to be trained. As an example, we analyse an exponentially large quantum ensemble in which each classifier is weighed according to its performance in classifying the training data, leading to new results for quantum as well as classical machine learning.

  17. Analysis of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependeny

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyers, Mark; Moemken, Julia; Pinto, Joaquim; Feldmann, Hendrik; Kottmeier, Christoph; MiKlip Module-C Team

    2017-04-01

    Decadal climate predictions can provide a useful basis for decision making support systems for the public and private sectors. Several generations of decadal hindcasts and predictions have been generated throughout the German research program MiKlip. Together with the global climate predictions computed with MPI-ESM, the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM is used for regional downscaling by MiKlip Module-C. The RCMs provide climate information on spatial and temporal scales closer to the needs of potential users. In this study, two downscaled hindcast generations are analysed (named b0 and b1). The respective global generations are both initialized by nudging them towards different reanalysis anomaly fields. An ensemble of five starting years (1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, and 2001), each comprising ten ensemble members, is used for both generations in order to quantify the regional decadal prediction skill for precipitation and near-surface temperature and wind speed over Europe. All datasets (including hindcasts, observations, reanalysis, and historical MPI-ESM runs) are pre-processed in an analogue manner by (i) removing the long-term trend and (ii) re-gridding to a common grid. Our analysis shows that there is potential for skillful decadal predictions over Europe in the regional MiKlip ensemble, but the skill is not systematic and depends on the PRUDENCE region and the variable. Further, the differences between the two hindcast generations are mostly small. As we used detrended time series, the predictive skill found in our study can probably attributed to reasonable predictions of anomalies which are associated with the natural climate variability. In a sensitivity study, it is shown that the results may strongly change when the long-term trend is kept in the datasets, as here the skill of predicting the long-term trend (e.g. for temperature) also plays a major role. The regionalization of the global ensemble provides an added value for decadal predictions for

  18. World Music Ensemble: Kulintang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beegle, Amy C.

    2012-01-01

    As instrumental world music ensembles such as steel pan, mariachi, gamelan and West African drums are becoming more the norm than the exception in North American school music programs, there are other world music ensembles just starting to gain popularity in particular parts of the United States. The kulintang ensemble, a drum and gong ensemble…

  19. Synchronized mammalian cell culture: part II--population ensemble modeling and analysis for development of reproducible processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jandt, Uwe; Barradas, Oscar Platas; Pörtner, Ralf; Zeng, An-Ping

    2015-01-01

    The consideration of inherent population inhomogeneities of mammalian cell cultures becomes increasingly important for systems biology study and for developing more stable and efficient processes. However, variations of cellular properties belonging to different sub-populations and their potential effects on cellular physiology and kinetics of culture productivity under bioproduction conditions have not yet been much in the focus of research. Culture heterogeneity is strongly determined by the advance of the cell cycle. The assignment of cell-cycle specific cellular variations to large-scale process conditions can be optimally determined based on the combination of (partially) synchronized cultivation under otherwise physiological conditions and subsequent population-resolved model adaptation. The first step has been achieved using the physical selection method of countercurrent flow centrifugal elutriation, recently established in our group for different mammalian cell lines which is presented in Part I of this paper series. In this second part, we demonstrate the successful adaptation and application of a cell-cycle dependent population balance ensemble model to describe and understand synchronized bioreactor cultivations performed with two model mammalian cell lines, AGE1.HNAAT and CHO-K1. Numerical adaptation of the model to experimental data allows for detection of phase-specific parameters and for determination of significant variations between different phases and different cell lines. It shows that special care must be taken with regard to the sampling frequency in such oscillation cultures to minimize phase shift (jitter) artifacts. Based on predictions of long-term oscillation behavior of a culture depending on its start conditions, optimal elutriation setup trade-offs between high cell yields and high synchronization efficiency are proposed. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  20. Ensembles lexicaux

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Bo

    1998-01-01

    In this article the author proposes a solution to the classical problem in European lexical semantics of delimiting lexical fields, a problem that most field-oriented semanticists involved in practical lexico-semantic analysis have found themselves confronted with. What are the criteria for saying...

  1. The Religious Ensemble of Bāb Dukkāla: Survey and Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iñigo Almela Legorburu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The present research studies with depth the mosque of Bāb Dukkāla at Marrakech, an architectural masterpiece created under the Saadian dynasty during the sixteenth century. The main aim of this study is to complete an accurate survey, by photogrammetry process, of the main building, but also of the related and adjoining buildings. These documentation and global analysis allow us to recognize a clearly religious complex designed to be well integrated in its urban context. In addition, spatial, constructive and ornamental aspects of the complex are analyzed in order to understand the architecture developed during this historical period.

  2. Osmotic virial coefficients for model protein and colloidal solutions: Importance of ensemble constraints in the analysis of light scattering data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siderius, Daniel W.; Krekelberg, William P.; Roberts, Christopher J.; Shen, Vincent K.

    2012-05-01

    Protein-protein interactions in solution may be quantified by the osmotic second virial coefficient (OSVC), which can be measured by various experimental techniques including light scattering. Analysis of Rayleigh light scattering measurements from such experiments requires identification of a scattering volume and the thermodynamic constraints imposed on that volume, i.e., the statistical mechanical ensemble in which light scattering occurs. Depending on the set of constraints imposed on the scattering volume, one can obtain either an apparent OSVC, A2,app, or the true thermodynamic OSVC, {B_{22}^{osm}}, that is rigorously defined in solution theory [M. A. Blanco, E. Sahin, Y. Li, and C. J. Roberts, J. Chem. Phys. 134, 225103 (2011), 10.1063/1.3596726]. However, it is unclear to what extent A2,app and {B_{22}^{osm}} differ, which may have implications on the physical interpretation of OSVC measurements from light scattering experiments. In this paper, we use the multicomponent hard-sphere model and a well-known equation of state to directly compare A2,app and {B_{22}^{osm}}. Our results from the hard-sphere equation of state indicate that A2,app underestimates {B_{22}^{osm}}, but in a systematic manner that may be explained using fundamental thermodynamic expressions for the two OSVCs. The difference between A2,app and {B_{22}^{osm}} may be quantitatively significant, but may also be obscured in experimental application by statistical uncertainty or non-steric interactions. Consequently, the two OSVCs that arise in the analysis of light scattering measurements do formally differ, but in a manner that may not be detectable in actual application.

  3. Leakage detection in galvanized iron pipelines using ensemble empirical mode decomposition analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Makeen; Ghazali, M. Fairusham

    2015-05-01

    There are many numbers of possible approaches to detect leaks. Some leaks are simply noticeable when the liquids or water appears on the surface. However many leaks do not find their way to the surface and the existence has to be check by analysis of fluid flow in the pipeline. The first step is to determine the approximate position of leak. This can be done by isolate the sections of the mains in turn and noting which section causes a drop in the flow. Next approach is by using sensor to locate leaks. This approach are involves strain gauge pressure transducers and piezoelectric sensor. the occurrence of leaks and know its exact location in the pipeline by using specific method which are Acoustic leak detection method and transient method. The objective is to utilize the signal processing technique in order to analyse leaking in the pipeline. With this, an EEMD method will be applied as the analysis method to collect and analyse the data.

  4. Creating ensembles of decision trees through sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick

    2005-08-30

    A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to sort the data, a module to evaluate a potential split of the data according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method is based on statistical sampling techniques and includes the steps of reading the data; sorting the data; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

  5. PHARMACOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ANTIHYPERTENSIVE DRUG COMBINATIONS USE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. I. Tarlovskaya

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To pursue pharmacoeconomic analysis of two drug combinations of ACE inhibitor (enalapril and diuretic.Material and methods. Patients with arterial hypertension degree 2 and diabetes mellitus type 2 without ischemic heart disease (n=56 were included into the study. Blood pressure (BP dynamics and cost/effectiveness ratio were evaluated.Results. In group A (fixed combination of original enalapril/hydrochlorothiazide 61% of patients achieved target BP level with initial dose, and the rest 39% of patients – with double dose. In group B (non-fixed combination of generic enalapril/indapamide 60% of patients achieved the target BP with initial dose of drugs, 33% - with double dose of ACE inhibitor, and 7% - with additional amlodipine administration. In patients of group A systolic BP (SBP reduction was 45.82±1.23 mm Hg by the 12th week vs. 40.0±0.81 mm Hg in patients of group B; diastolic BP (DBP reduction was 22.47±1.05 mm Hg and 18.76±0.70 mm Hg, respectively, by the 12th week of treatment. In the first month of treatment costs of target BP achievement was 298.62 rubles per patient in group A, and 299.50 rubles – in group B; by the 12th week of treatment – 629.45 and 631.22 rubles, respectively. Costs of SBP and DBP reduction by 1 mm Hg during 12 weeks of therapy were 13 and 27 rubles per patient, respectively, in group A, and 16 and 34 rubles per patient, respectively, in group B.Conclusion. The original fixed combination (enalapril+hydrochlorothiazide proved to be more clinically effective and more cost effective in the treatment of hypertensive patients in comparison with the non-fixed combination of generic drugs (enalapril+indapamide.

  6. Analysis and modeling of ensemble recordings from respiratory pre-motor neurons indicate changes in functional network architecture after acute hypoxia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto F Galán

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We have combined neurophysiologic recording, statistical analysis, and computational modeling to investigate the dynamics of the respiratory network in the brainstem. Using a multielectrode array, we recorded ensembles of respiratory neurons in perfused in situ rat preparations that produce spontaneous breathing patterns, focusing on inspiratory pre-motor neurons. We compared firing rates and neuronal synchronization among these neurons before and after a brief hypoxic stimulus. We observed a significant decrease in the number of spikes after stimulation, in part due to a transient slowing of the respiratory pattern. However, the median interspike interval did not change, suggesting that the firing threshold of the neurons was not affected but rather the synaptic input was. A bootstrap analysis of synchrony between spike trains revealed that, both before and after brief hypoxia, up to 45 % (but typically less than 5 % of coincident spikes across neuronal pairs was not explained by chance. Most likely, this synchrony resulted from common synaptic input to the pre-motor population, an example of stochastic synchronization. After brief hypoxia most pairs were less synchronized, although some were more, suggesting that the respiratory network was “rewired” transiently after the stimulus. To investigate this hypothesis, we created a simple computational model with feed-forward divergent connections along the inspiratory pathway. Assuming that 1 the number of divergent projections was not the same for all presynaptic cells, but rather spanned a wide range and 2 that the stimulus increased inhibition at the top of the network; this model reproduced the reduction in firing rate and bootstrap-corrected synchrony subsequent to hypoxic stimulation observed in our experimental data.

  7. A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, P.

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

  8. Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M; Guven, Erhan

    2018-01-01

    In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

  9. Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna L Buczak

    Full Text Available In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico during four dengue seasons: 1 peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2 peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred; and 3 total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date.Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1 two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2 additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3 simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations.Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week.The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

  10. Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoonsik Shim

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP. The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture.

  11. Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Yoonsik; Philippides, Andrew; Staras, Kevin; Husbands, Phil

    2016-10-01

    We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture.

  12. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

  13. Combining Conversation Analysis and Nexus Analysis to explore hospital practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paasch, Bettina Sletten

    , ethnographic observations, interviews, photos and documents were obtained. Inspired by the analytical manoeuvre of zooming in and zooming out proposed by Nicolini (Nicolini, 2009; Nicolini, 2013) the present study uses Conversations Analysis (Sacks, Schegloff, & Jefferson, 1974) and Embodied Interaction...... of interaction. In the conducted interviews nurses report mobile work phones to disturb interactions with patients when they ring, however, analysing the recorded interactions with tools from Conversations Analysis and Embodied Interaction Analysis displays how nurses demonstrate sophisticated awareness...... interrelationships influencing it. The present study thus showcases how Conversation Analysis and Nexus Analysis can be combined to achieve a multi-layered perspective on interactions between nurses, patients and mobile work phones....

  14. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses totemperature and CO2concentration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makowski, D; Asseng, S; Ewert, F.

    2015-01-01

    Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data...

  15. Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.

  16. Combining triggers in HEP data analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendermann, Victor; Herbst, Michael; Krueger, Katja; Schultz-Coulon, Hans-Christian; Stamen, Rainer; Haller, Johannes

    2009-01-01

    Modern high-energy physics experiments collect data using dedicated complex multi-level trigger systems which perform an online selection of potentially interesting events. In general, this selection suffers from inefficiencies. A further loss of statistics occurs when the rate of accepted events is artificially scaled down in order to meet bandwidth constraints. An offline analysis of the recorded data must correct for the resulting losses in order to determine the original statistics of the analysed data sample. This is particularly challenging when data samples recorded by several triggers are combined. In this paper we present methods for the calculation of the offline corrections and study their statistical performance. Implications on building and operating trigger systems are discussed. (orig.)

  17. Combining triggers in HEP data analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lendermann, Victor; Herbst, Michael; Krueger, Katja; Schultz-Coulon, Hans-Christian; Stamen, Rainer [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany). Kirchhoff-Institut fuer Physik; Haller, Johannes [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Institut fuer Experimentalphysik

    2009-01-15

    Modern high-energy physics experiments collect data using dedicated complex multi-level trigger systems which perform an online selection of potentially interesting events. In general, this selection suffers from inefficiencies. A further loss of statistics occurs when the rate of accepted events is artificially scaled down in order to meet bandwidth constraints. An offline analysis of the recorded data must correct for the resulting losses in order to determine the original statistics of the analysed data sample. This is particularly challenging when data samples recorded by several triggers are combined. In this paper we present methods for the calculation of the offline corrections and study their statistical performance. Implications on building and operating trigger systems are discussed. (orig.)

  18. A genetic ensemble approach for gene-gene interaction identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Joshua WK

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It has now become clear that gene-gene interactions and gene-environment interactions are ubiquitous and fundamental mechanisms for the development of complex diseases. Though a considerable effort has been put into developing statistical models and algorithmic strategies for identifying such interactions, the accurate identification of those genetic interactions has been proven to be very challenging. Methods In this paper, we propose a new approach for identifying such gene-gene and gene-environment interactions underlying complex diseases. This is a hybrid algorithm and it combines genetic algorithm (GA and an ensemble of classifiers (called genetic ensemble. Using this approach, the original problem of SNP interaction identification is converted into a data mining problem of combinatorial feature selection. By collecting various single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP subsets as well as environmental factors generated in multiple GA runs, patterns of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions can be extracted using a simple combinatorial ranking method. Also considered in this study is the idea of combining identification results obtained from multiple algorithms. A novel formula based on pairwise double fault is designed to quantify the degree of complementarity. Conclusions Our simulation study demonstrates that the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm has comparable identification power to Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR and is slightly better than Polymorphism Interaction Analysis (PIA, which are the two most popular methods for gene-gene interaction identification. More importantly, the identification results generated by using our genetic ensemble algorithm are highly complementary to those obtained by PIA and MDR. Experimental results from our simulation studies and real world data application also confirm the effectiveness of the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm, as well as the potential benefits of

  19. Critical Listening in the Ensemble Rehearsal: A Community of Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Cindy L.

    2018-01-01

    This article explores a strategy for engaging ensemble members in critical listening analysis of performances and presents opportunities for improving ensemble sound through rigorous dialogue, reflection, and attentive rehearsing. Critical listening asks ensemble members to draw on individual playing experience and knowledge to describe what they…

  20. Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

  1. Statistical analysis of simulated global soil moisture and its memory in an ensemble of CMIP5 general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiß, Felix; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Soil moisture and its memory can have a strong impact on near surface temperature and precipitation and have the potential to promote severe heat waves, dry spells and floods. To analyze how soil moisture is simulated in recent general circulation models (GCMs), soil moisture data from a 23 model ensemble of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) type simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are examined for the period 1979 to 2008 with regard to parameterization and statistical characteristics. With respect to soil moisture processes, the models vary in their maximum soil and root depth, the number of soil layers, the water-holding capacity, and the ability to simulate freezing which all together leads to very different soil moisture characteristics. Differences in the water-holding capacity are resulting in deviations in the global median soil moisture of more than one order of magnitude between the models. In contrast, the variance shows similar absolute values when comparing the models to each other. Thus, the input and output rates by precipitation and evapotranspiration, which are computed by the atmospheric component of the models, have to be in the same range. Most models simulate great variances in the monsoon areas of the tropics and north western U.S., intermediate variances in Europe and eastern U.S., and low variances in the Sahara, continental Asia, and central and western Australia. In general, the variance decreases with latitude over the high northern latitudes. As soil moisture trends in the models were found to be negligible, the soil moisture anomalies were calculated by subtracting the 30 year monthly climatology from the data. The length of the memory is determined from the soil moisture anomalies by calculating the first insignificant autocorrelation for ascending monthly lags (insignificant autocorrelation folding time). The models show a great spread of autocorrelation length from a few months in

  2. Extracting the Neural Representation of Tone Onsets for Separate Voices of Ensemble Music Using Multivariate EEG Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sturm, Irene; Treder, Matthias S.; Miklody, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    responses to tone onsets, such as N1/P2 ERP components. Music clips (resembling minimalistic electro-pop) were presented to 11 subjects, either in an ensemble version (drums, bass, keyboard) or in the corresponding three solo versions. For each instrument we train a spatio-temporal regression filter...... at the level of early auditory ERPs parallels the perceptual segregation of multi-voiced music....

  3. Combining NMR ensembles and molecular dynamics simulations provides more realistic models of protein structures in solution and leads to better chemical shift prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehtivarjo, Juuso; Tuppurainen, Kari; Hassinen, Tommi; Laatikainen, Reino; Peräkylä, Mikael

    2012-01-01

    While chemical shifts are invaluable for obtaining structural information from proteins, they also offer one of the rare ways to obtain information about protein dynamics. A necessary tool in transforming chemical shifts into structural and dynamic information is chemical shift prediction. In our previous work we developed a method for 4D prediction of protein 1 H chemical shifts in which molecular motions, the 4th dimension, were modeled using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Although the approach clearly improved the prediction, the X-ray structures and single NMR conformers used in the model cannot be considered fully realistic models of protein in solution. In this work, NMR ensembles (NMRE) were used to expand the conformational space of proteins (e.g. side chains, flexible loops, termini), followed by MD simulations for each conformer to map the local fluctuations. Compared with the non-dynamic model, the NMRE+MD model gave 6–17% lower root-mean-square (RMS) errors for different backbone nuclei. The improved prediction indicates that NMR ensembles with MD simulations can be used to obtain a more realistic picture of protein structures in solutions and moreover underlines the importance of short and long time-scale dynamics for the prediction. The RMS errors of the NMRE+MD model were 0.24, 0.43, 0.98, 1.03, 1.16 and 2.39 ppm for 1 Hα, 1 HN, 13 Cα, 13 Cβ, 13 CO and backbone 15 N chemical shifts, respectively. The model is implemented in the prediction program 4DSPOT, available at http://www.uef.fi/4dspothttp://www.uef.fi/4dspot.

  4. Combining NMR ensembles and molecular dynamics simulations provides more realistic models of protein structures in solution and leads to better chemical shift prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehtivarjo, Juuso, E-mail: juuso.lehtivarjo@uef.fi; Tuppurainen, Kari; Hassinen, Tommi; Laatikainen, Reino [University of Eastern Finland, School of Pharmacy (Finland); Peraekylae, Mikael [University of Eastern Finland, Institute of Biomedicine (Finland)

    2012-03-15

    While chemical shifts are invaluable for obtaining structural information from proteins, they also offer one of the rare ways to obtain information about protein dynamics. A necessary tool in transforming chemical shifts into structural and dynamic information is chemical shift prediction. In our previous work we developed a method for 4D prediction of protein {sup 1}H chemical shifts in which molecular motions, the 4th dimension, were modeled using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Although the approach clearly improved the prediction, the X-ray structures and single NMR conformers used in the model cannot be considered fully realistic models of protein in solution. In this work, NMR ensembles (NMRE) were used to expand the conformational space of proteins (e.g. side chains, flexible loops, termini), followed by MD simulations for each conformer to map the local fluctuations. Compared with the non-dynamic model, the NMRE+MD model gave 6-17% lower root-mean-square (RMS) errors for different backbone nuclei. The improved prediction indicates that NMR ensembles with MD simulations can be used to obtain a more realistic picture of protein structures in solutions and moreover underlines the importance of short and long time-scale dynamics for the prediction. The RMS errors of the NMRE+MD model were 0.24, 0.43, 0.98, 1.03, 1.16 and 2.39 ppm for {sup 1}H{alpha}, {sup 1}HN, {sup 13}C{alpha}, {sup 13}C{beta}, {sup 13}CO and backbone {sup 15}N chemical shifts, respectively. The model is implemented in the prediction program 4DSPOT, available at http://www.uef.fi/4dspothttp://www.uef.fi/4dspot.

  5. Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport from equatorial Southeast Asian Maritime Continent to the Philippines: First comparison of ensemble analysis with in situ observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Cui; Wang, Jun; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Posselt, Derek J.; Xian, Peng; Hyer, Edward

    2017-05-01

    Atmospheric transport of smoke from equatorial Southeast Asian Maritime Continent (Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia) to the Philippines was recently verified by the first-ever measurement of aerosol composition in the region of the Sulu Sea from a research vessel named Vasco. However, numerical modeling of such transport can have large uncertainties due to the lack of observations for parameterization schemes and for describing fire emission and meteorology in this region. These uncertainties are analyzed here, for the first time, with an ensemble of 24 Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations. The ensemble reproduces the time series of observed surface nonsea-salt PM2.5 concentrations observed from the Vasco vessel during 17-30 September 2011 and overall agrees with satellite (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data. The difference of meteorology between National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP's) Final (FNL) and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF's) ERA renders the biggest spread in the ensemble (up to 20 μg m-3 or 200% in surface PM2.5), with FNL showing systematically superior results. The second biggest uncertainty is from fire emissions; the 2 day maximum Fire Locating and Modelling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) emission is superior than the instantaneous one. While Grell-Devenyi (G3) and Betts-Miller-Janjić cumulus schemes only produce a difference of 3 μg m-3 of surface PM2.5 over the Sulu Sea, the ensemble mean agrees best with Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing (CMORPH)'s spatial distribution of precipitation. Simulation with FNL-G3, 2 day maximum FLAMBE, and 800 m injection height outperforms other ensemble members. Finally, the global transport model (Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS)) outperforms all WRF

  6. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Chernov, Alexey; Hoel, Haakon; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

  7. Entropy of network ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianconi, Ginestra

    2009-03-01

    In this paper we generalize the concept of random networks to describe network ensembles with nontrivial features by a statistical mechanics approach. This framework is able to describe undirected and directed network ensembles as well as weighted network ensembles. These networks might have nontrivial community structure or, in the case of networks embedded in a given space, they might have a link probability with a nontrivial dependence on the distance between the nodes. These ensembles are characterized by their entropy, which evaluates the cardinality of networks in the ensemble. In particular, in this paper we define and evaluate the structural entropy, i.e., the entropy of the ensembles of undirected uncorrelated simple networks with given degree sequence. We stress the apparent paradox that scale-free degree distributions are characterized by having small structural entropy while they are so widely encountered in natural, social, and technological complex systems. We propose a solution to the paradox by proving that scale-free degree distributions are the most likely degree distribution with the corresponding value of the structural entropy. Finally, the general framework we present in this paper is able to describe microcanonical ensembles of networks as well as canonical or hidden-variable network ensembles with significant implications for the formulation of network-constructing algorithms.

  8. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Chernov, Alexey

    2016-01-06

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

  9. Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan D. Keller

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.

  10. Musical ensembles in Ancient Mesapotamia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krispijn, T.J.H.; Dumbrill, R.; Finkel, I.

    2010-01-01

    Identification of musical instruments from ancient Mesopotamia by comparing musical ensembles attested in Sumerian and Akkadian texts with depicted ensembles. Lexicographical contributions to the Sumerian and Akkadian lexicon.

  11. A Noise-Assisted Data Analysis Method for Automatic EOG-Based Sleep Stage Classification Using Ensemble Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olesen, Alexander Neergaard; Christensen, Julie A E; Sorensen, Helge B D; Jennum, Poul J

    2016-08-01

    Reducing the number of recording modalities for sleep staging research can benefit both researchers and patients, under the condition that they provide as accurate results as conventional systems. This paper investigates the possibility of exploiting the multisource nature of the electrooculography (EOG) signals by presenting a method for automatic sleep staging using the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise algorithm, and a random forest classifier. It achieves a high overall accuracy of 82% and a Cohen's kappa of 0.74 indicating substantial agreement between automatic and manual scoring.

  12. A Noise-Assisted Data Analysis Method for Automatic EOG-Based Sleep Stage Classification Using Ensemble Learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Alexander Neergaard; Christensen, Julie Anja Engelhard; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

    2016-01-01

    Reducing the number of recording modalities for sleep staging research can benefit both researchers and patients, under the condition that they provide as accurate results as conventional systems. This paper investigates the possibility of exploiting the multisource nature of the electrooculography...... (EOG) signals by presenting a method for automatic sleep staging using the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise algorithm, and a random forest classifier. It achieves a high overall accuracy of 82% and a Cohen’s kappa of 0.74 indicating substantial agreement between...

  13. Unified analysis of ensemble and single-complex optical spectral data from light-harvesting complex-2 chromoproteins for gaining deeper insight into bacterial photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajusalu, Mihkel; Kunz, Ralf; Rätsep, Margus; Timpmann, Kõu; Köhler, Jürgen; Freiberg, Arvi

    2015-11-01

    Bacterial light-harvesting pigment-protein complexes are very efficient at converting photons into excitons and transferring them to reaction centers, where the energy is stored in a chemical form. Optical properties of the complexes are known to change significantly in time and also vary from one complex to another; therefore, a detailed understanding of the variations on the level of single complexes and how they accumulate into effects that can be seen on the macroscopic scale is required. While experimental and theoretical methods exist to study the spectral properties of light-harvesting complexes on both individual complex and bulk ensemble levels, they have been developed largely independently of each other. To fill this gap, we simultaneously analyze experimental low-temperature single-complex and bulk ensemble optical spectra of the light-harvesting complex-2 (LH2) chromoproteins from the photosynthetic bacterium Rhodopseudomonas acidophila in order to find a unique theoretical model consistent with both experimental situations. The model, which satisfies most of the observations, combines strong exciton-phonon coupling with significant disorder, characteristic of the proteins. We establish a detailed disorder model that, in addition to containing a C2-symmetrical modulation of the site energies, distinguishes between static intercomplex and slow conformational intracomplex disorders. The model evaluations also verify that, despite best efforts, the single-LH2-complex measurements performed so far may be biased toward complexes with higher Huang-Rhys factors.

  14. Design ensemble machine learning model for breast cancer diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Sheau-Ling; Hsieh, Sung-Huai; Cheng, Po-Hsun; Chen, Chi-Huang; Hsu, Kai-Ping; Lee, I-Shun; Wang, Zhenyu; Lai, Feipei

    2012-10-01

    In this paper, we classify the breast cancer of medical diagnostic data. Information gain has been adapted for feature selections. Neural fuzzy (NF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), quadratic classifier (QC), each single model scheme as well as their associated, ensemble ones have been developed for classifications. In addition, a combined ensemble model with these three schemes has been constructed for further validations. The experimental results indicate that the ensemble learning performs better than individual single ones. Moreover, the combined ensemble model illustrates the highest accuracy of classifications for the breast cancer among all models.

  15. Ensemble manifold regularization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Bo; Tao, Dacheng; Xu, Chao; Yang, Linjun; Hua, Xian-Sheng

    2012-06-01

    We propose an automatic approximation of the intrinsic manifold for general semi-supervised learning (SSL) problems. Unfortunately, it is not trivial to define an optimization function to obtain optimal hyperparameters. Usually, cross validation is applied, but it does not necessarily scale up. Other problems derive from the suboptimality incurred by discrete grid search and the overfitting. Therefore, we develop an ensemble manifold regularization (EMR) framework to approximate the intrinsic manifold by combining several initial guesses. Algorithmically, we designed EMR carefully so it 1) learns both the composite manifold and the semi-supervised learner jointly, 2) is fully automatic for learning the intrinsic manifold hyperparameters implicitly, 3) is conditionally optimal for intrinsic manifold approximation under a mild and reasonable assumption, and 4) is scalable for a large number of candidate manifold hyperparameters, from both time and space perspectives. Furthermore, we prove the convergence property of EMR to the deterministic matrix at rate root-n. Extensive experiments over both synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

  16. Reliability analysis of RC containment structures under combined loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Kagami, S.

    1984-01-01

    This paper discusses a reliability analysis method and load combination design criteria for reinforced concrete containment structures under combined loads. The probability based reliability analysis method is briefly described. For load combination design criteria, derivations of the load factors for accidental pressure due to a design basis accident and safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) for three target limit state probabilities are presented

  17. The Advantage of Using International Multimodel Ensemble for Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Israel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Givati

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the results of monthly and seasonal precipitation forecasting from seven different global climate forecast models for major basins in Israel within October–April 1982–2010. The six National Multimodel Ensemble (NMME models and the ECMWF seasonal model were used to calculate an International Multimodel Ensemble (IMME. The study presents the performance of both monthly and seasonal predictions of precipitation accumulated over three months, with respect to different lead times for the ensemble mean values, one per individual model. Additionally, we analyzed the performance of different combinations of models. We present verification of seasonal forecasting using real forecasts, focusing on a small domain characterized by complex terrain, high annual precipitation variability, and a sharp precipitation gradient from west to east as well as from south to north. The results in this study show that, in general, the monthly analysis does not provide very accurate results, even when using the IMME for one-month lead time. We found that the IMME outperformed any single model prediction. Our analysis indicates that the optimal combinations with the high correlation values contain at least three models. Moreover, prediction with larger number of models in the ensemble produces more robust predictions. The results obtained in this study highlight the advantages of using an ensemble of global models over single models for small domain.

  18. Ensembl variation resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin-Garcia Pablo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.

  19. Buckling analysis for anisotropic laminated plates under combined inplane loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, A. V.; Tamekuni, M.; Baker, L. L.

    1974-01-01

    The buckling analysis presented considers rectangular flat or curved general laminates subjected to combined inplane normal and shear loads. Linear theory is used in the analysis. All prebuckling deformations and any initial imperfections are ignored. The analysis method can be readily extended to longitudinally stiffened structures subjected to combined inplane normal and shear loads.

  20. Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Steven J; Price, Harry E; Smedley, Eric M; Meals, Cory D

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor's gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance: articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and non-majors (N = 285) viewed sixteen 30 s performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble's articulation, dynamics, technique, and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble's performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity.

  1. Girsanov reweighting for path ensembles and Markov state models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donati, L.; Hartmann, C.; Keller, B. G.

    2017-06-01

    The sensitivity of molecular dynamics on changes in the potential energy function plays an important role in understanding the dynamics and function of complex molecules. We present a method to obtain path ensemble averages of a perturbed dynamics from a set of paths generated by a reference dynamics. It is based on the concept of path probability measure and the Girsanov theorem, a result from stochastic analysis to estimate a change of measure of a path ensemble. Since Markov state models (MSMs) of the molecular dynamics can be formulated as a combined phase-space and path ensemble average, the method can be extended to reweight MSMs by combining it with a reweighting of the Boltzmann distribution. We demonstrate how to efficiently implement the Girsanov reweighting in a molecular dynamics simulation program by calculating parts of the reweighting factor "on the fly" during the simulation, and we benchmark the method on test systems ranging from a two-dimensional diffusion process and an artificial many-body system to alanine dipeptide and valine dipeptide in implicit and explicit water. The method can be used to study the sensitivity of molecular dynamics on external perturbations as well as to reweight trajectories generated by enhanced sampling schemes to the original dynamics.

  2. Benchmarking Commercial Conformer Ensemble Generators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Nils-Ole; de Bruyn Kops, Christina; Flachsenberg, Florian; Sommer, Kai; Rarey, Matthias; Kirchmair, Johannes

    2017-11-27

    We assess and compare the performance of eight commercial conformer ensemble generators (ConfGen, ConfGenX, cxcalc, iCon, MOE LowModeMD, MOE Stochastic, MOE Conformation Import, and OMEGA) and one leading free algorithm, the distance geometry algorithm implemented in RDKit. The comparative study is based on a new version of the Platinum Diverse Dataset, a high-quality benchmarking dataset of 2859 protein-bound ligand conformations extracted from the PDB. Differences in the performance of commercial algorithms are much smaller than those observed for free algorithms in our previous study (J. Chem. Inf. 2017, 57, 529-539). For commercial algorithms, the median minimum root-mean-square deviations measured between protein-bound ligand conformations and ensembles of a maximum of 250 conformers are between 0.46 and 0.61 Å. Commercial conformer ensemble generators are characterized by their high robustness, with at least 99% of all input molecules successfully processed and few or even no substantial geometrical errors detectable in their output conformations. The RDKit distance geometry algorithm (with minimization enabled) appears to be a good free alternative since its performance is comparable to that of the midranked commercial algorithms. Based on a statistical analysis, we elaborate on which algorithms to use and how to parametrize them for best performance in different application scenarios.

  3. Setup Analysis: Combining SMED with Other Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stadnicka Dorota

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to propose the methodology for the setup analysis, which can be implemented mainly in small and medium enterprises which are not convinced to implement the setups development. The methodology was developed after the research which determined the problem. Companies still have difficulties with a long setup time. Many of them do nothing to decrease this time. A long setup is not a sufficient reason for companies to undertake any actions towards the setup time reduction. To encourage companies to implement SMED it is essential to make some analyses of changeovers in order to discover problems. The methodology proposed can really encourage the management to take a decision about the SMED implementation, and that was verified in a production company. The setup analysis methodology is made up of seven steps. Four of them concern a setups analysis in a chosen area of a company, such as a work stand which is a bottleneck with many setups. The goal is to convince the management to begin actions concerning the setups improvement. The last three steps are related to a certain setup and, there, the goal is to reduce a setup time and the risk of problems which can appear during the setup. In this paper, the tools such as SMED, Pareto analysis, statistical analysis, FMEA and other were used.

  4. Association analysis of multiple traits by an approach of combining ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Lili Chen

    diseases. Joint analysis of multiple traits can increase statistical power of association analysis and uncover the underlying genetic ... genthaler and Thilly 2007), the combined multivariate and ... Because of using reverse regression model, our.

  5. 'Lazy' quantum ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parfionov, George; Zapatrin, Roman

    2006-01-01

    We compare different strategies aimed to prepare an ensemble with a given density matrix ρ. Preparing the ensemble of eigenstates of ρ with appropriate probabilities can be treated as 'generous' strategy: it provides maximal accessible information about the state. Another extremity is the so-called 'Scrooge' ensemble, which is mostly stingy in sharing the information. We introduce 'lazy' ensembles which require minimal effort to prepare the density matrix by selecting pure states with respect to completely random choice. We consider two parties, Alice and Bob, playing a kind of game. Bob wishes to guess which pure state is prepared by Alice. His null hypothesis, based on the lack of any information about Alice's intention, is that Alice prepares any pure state with equal probability. Then, the average quantum state measured by Bob turns out to be ρ, and he has to make a new hypothesis about Alice's intention solely based on the information that the observed density matrix is ρ. The arising 'lazy' ensemble is shown to be the alternative hypothesis which minimizes type I error

  6. The semantic similarity ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Ballatore

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Computational measures of semantic similarity between geographic terms provide valuable support across geographic information retrieval, data mining, and information integration. To date, a wide variety of approaches to geo-semantic similarity have been devised. A judgment of similarity is not intrinsically right or wrong, but obtains a certain degree of cognitive plausibility, depending on how closely it mimics human behavior. Thus selecting the most appropriate measure for a specific task is a significant challenge. To address this issue, we make an analogy between computational similarity measures and soliciting domain expert opinions, which incorporate a subjective set of beliefs, perceptions, hypotheses, and epistemic biases. Following this analogy, we define the semantic similarity ensemble (SSE as a composition of different similarity measures, acting as a panel of experts having to reach a decision on the semantic similarity of a set of geographic terms. The approach is evaluated in comparison to human judgments, and results indicate that an SSE performs better than the average of its parts. Although the best member tends to outperform the ensemble, all ensembles outperform the average performance of each ensemble's member. Hence, in contexts where the best measure is unknown, the ensemble provides a more cognitively plausible approach.

  7. Generalized fault tree analysis combined with state analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldarola, L.

    1980-02-01

    An analytical theory has been developed which allows one to calculate the occurrence probability of the top event of a fault tree with multistate (two or more than two states) components. It is shown that, in order to correctly describe a system with multistate components, a special type of boolean algebra is required. This is called 'boolean algebra with restrictions on variables' and its basic rules are the same as those of the traditional boolean algebra with some additional restrictions on the variables. These restrictions are extensively discussed in the paper. It is also shown that the boolean algebra with restrictions on variables facilitates the task of formally combining fault tree analysis with state analysis. The computer program MUSTAFA 1 based on the above theory has been developed. It can analyse fault trees of system containing statistically independent as well as dependent components with two or more than two states. MUSTAFA 1 can handle coherent as well as non coherent boolean functions. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MB [de

  8. Ensemble singular vectors and their use as additive inflation in EnKF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Chih Yang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Given an ensemble of forecasts, it is possible to determine the leading ensemble singular vector (ESV, that is, the linear combination of the forecasts that, given the choice of the perturbation norm and forecast interval, will maximise the growth of the perturbations. Because the ESV indicates the directions of the fastest growing forecast errors, we explore the potential of applying the leading ESVs in ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF for correcting fast-growing errors. The ESVs are derived based on a quasi-geostrophic multi-level channel model, and data assimilation experiments are carried out under framework of the local ensemble transform Kalman filter. We confirm that even during the early spin-up starting with random initial conditions, the final ESVs of the first analysis with a 12-h window are strongly related to the background errors. Since initial ensemble singular vectors (IESVs grow much faster than Lyapunov Vectors (LVs, and the final ensemble singular vectors (FESVs are close to convergence to leading LVs, perturbations based on leading IESVs grow faster than those based on FESVs, and are therefore preferable as additive inflation. The IESVs are applied in the EnKF framework for constructing flow-dependent additive perturbations to inflate the analysis ensemble. Compared with using random perturbations as additive inflation, a positive impact from using ESVs is found especially in areas with large growing errors. When an EnKF is ‘cold-started’ from random perturbations and poor initial condition, results indicate that using the ESVs as additive inflation has the advantage of correcting large errors so that the spin-up of the EnKF can be accelerated.

  9. Uncertainty, Sensitivity Analysis, and Causal Identification in the Arctic using a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble of the HiLAT Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunke, Elizabeth Clare [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urban, Nathan Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2018-02-12

    Coupled climate models have a large number of input parameters that can affect output uncertainty. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of sea ice proper:es and Arc:c related climate variables to 5 parameters in the HiLAT climate model: air-ocean turbulent exchange parameter (C), conversion of water vapor to clouds (cldfrc_rhminl) and of ice crystals to snow (micro_mg_dcs), snow thermal conduc:vity (ksno), and maximum snow grain size (rsnw_mlt). We used an elementary effect (EE) approach to rank their importance for output uncertainty. EE is an extension of one-at-a-time sensitivity analyses, but it is more efficient in sampling multi-dimensional parameter spaces. We looked for emerging relationships among climate variables across the model ensemble, and used causal discovery algorithms to establish potential pathways for those relationships.

  10. Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Qiang

    2010-01-01

    Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…

  11. Probabilistic Determination of Native State Ensembles of Proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsson, Simon; Vögeli, Beat Rolf; Cavalli, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    ensembles of proteins by the combination of physical force fields and experimental data through modern statistical methodology. As an example, we use NMR residual dipolar couplings to determine a native state ensemble of the extensively studied third immunoglobulin binding domain of protein G (GB3...

  12. Analysis and Classification of Stride Patterns Associated with Children Development Using Gait Signal Dynamics Parameters and Ensemble Learning Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meihong Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Measuring stride variability and dynamics in children is useful for the quantitative study of gait maturation and neuromotor development in childhood and adolescence. In this paper, we computed the sample entropy (SampEn and average stride interval (ASI parameters to quantify the stride series of 50 gender-matched children participants in three age groups. We also normalized the SampEn and ASI values by leg length and body mass for each participant, respectively. Results show that the original and normalized SampEn values consistently decrease over the significance level of the Mann-Whitney U test (p<0.01 in children of 3–14 years old, which indicates the stride irregularity has been significantly ameliorated with the body growth. The original and normalized ASI values are also significantly changing when comparing between any two groups of young (aged 3–5 years, middle (aged 6–8 years, and elder (aged 10–14 years children. Such results suggest that healthy children may better modulate their gait cadence rhythm with the development of their musculoskeletal and neurological systems. In addition, the AdaBoost.M2 and Bagging algorithms were used to effectively distinguish the children’s gait patterns. These ensemble learning algorithms both provided excellent gait classification results in terms of overall accuracy (≥90%, recall (≥0.8, and precision (≥0.8077.

  13. An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velázquez, J. A.; Schmid, J.; Ricard, S.; Muerth, M. J.; Gauvin St-Denis, B.; Minville, M.; Chaumont, D.; Caya, D.; Ludwig, R.; Turcotte, R.

    2012-06-01

    Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

  14. Combination and Integration of Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Mayring

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I am going to outline ways of combining qualitative and quantitative steps of analysis on five levels. On the technical level, programs for the computer-aided analysis of qualitative data offer various combinations. Where the data are concerned, the employment of categories (for instance by using qualitative content analysis allows for combining qualitative and quantitative forms of data analysis. On the individual level, the creation of types and the inductive generalisation of cases allow for proceeding from individual case material to quantitative generalisations. As for research design, different models can be distinguished (preliminary study, generalisation, elaboration, triangulation which combine qualitative and quantitative steps of analysis. Where the logic of research is concerned, it can be shown that an extended process model which combined qualitative and quantitative research can be appropriate and thus lead to an integration of the two approaches. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs010162

  15. Image analysis and microscopy: a useful combination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinotti L.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The TSE Roadmap published in 2005 (DG for Health and Consumer Protection, 2005 suggests that short and medium term (2005-2009 amendments to control BSE policy should include “a relaxation of certain measures of the current total feed ban when certain conditions are met”. The same document noted “the starting point when revising the current feed ban provisions should be risk-based but at the same time taking into account the control tools in place to evaluate and ensure the proper implementation of this feed ban”. The clear implication is that adequate analytical methods to detect constituents of animal origin in feedstuffs are required. The official analytical method for the detection of constituents of animal origin in feedstuffs is the microscopic examination technique as described in Commission Directive 2003/126/EC of 23 December 2003 [OJ L 339, 24.12.2003, 78]. Although the microscopic method is usually able to distinguish fish from land animal material, it is often unable to distinguish between different terrestrial animals. Fulfillments of the requirements of Regulation 1774/2002/EC laying down health rules concerning animal by-products not intended for human consumption, clearly implies that it must be possible to identify the origin animal materials, at higher taxonomic levels than in the past. Thus improvements in all methods of detecting constituents of animal origin are required, including the microscopic method. This article will examine the problem of meat and bone meal in animal feeds, and the use of microscopic methods in association with computer image analysis to identify the source species of these feedstuff contaminants. Image processing, integrated with morphometric measurements can provide accurate and reliable results and can be a very useful aid to the analyst in the characterization, analysis and control of feedstuffs.

  16. Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961-2099

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, H.E.M.; Hordoir, R.; Andersson, H.C.; Dieterich, C.; Hoeglund, A.; Schimanke, S. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Department of Research and Development, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Eilola, K. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Department of Research and Development, Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden); Gustafsson, B.G. [Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2012-11-15

    The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP. (orig.)

  17. Disease-associated mutations that alter the RNA structural ensemble.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Halvorsen

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS often identify disease-associated mutations in intergenic and non-coding regions of the genome. Given the high percentage of the human genome that is transcribed, we postulate that for some observed associations the disease phenotype is caused by a structural rearrangement in a regulatory region of the RNA transcript. To identify such mutations, we have performed a genome-wide analysis of all known disease-associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs from the Human Gene Mutation Database (HGMD that map to the untranslated regions (UTRs of a gene. Rather than using minimum free energy approaches (e.g. mFold, we use a partition function calculation that takes into consideration the ensemble of possible RNA conformations for a given sequence. We identified in the human genome disease-associated SNPs that significantly alter the global conformation of the UTR to which they map. For six disease-states (Hyperferritinemia Cataract Syndrome, beta-Thalassemia, Cartilage-Hair Hypoplasia, Retinoblastoma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD, and Hypertension, we identified multiple SNPs in UTRs that alter the mRNA structural ensemble of the associated genes. Using a Boltzmann sampling procedure for sub-optimal RNA structures, we are able to characterize and visualize the nature of the conformational changes induced by the disease-associated mutations in the structural ensemble. We observe in several cases (specifically the 5' UTRs of FTL and RB1 SNP-induced conformational changes analogous to those observed in bacterial regulatory Riboswitches when specific ligands bind. We propose that the UTR and SNP combinations we identify constitute a "RiboSNitch," that is a regulatory RNA in which a specific SNP has a structural consequence that results in a disease phenotype. Our SNPfold algorithm can help identify RiboSNitches by leveraging GWAS data and an analysis of the mRNA structural ensemble.

  18. Ensemble dispersion forecasting - Part 2. Application and evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; Addis, R.

    2004-01-01

    of the dispersion of ETEX release 1 and the model ensemble is compared with the monitoring data. The scope of the comparison is to estimate to what extent the ensemble analysis is an improvement with respect to the single model results and represents a superior analysis of the process evolution. (C) 2004 Elsevier...

  19. Spatial Ensemble Postprocessing of Precipitation Forecasts Using High Resolution Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Moritz N.; Schicker, Irene; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble prediction systems are designed to account for errors or uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions, imperfect parameterizations, etc. However, due to sampling errors and underestimation of the model errors, these ensemble forecasts tend to be underdispersive, and to lack both reliability and sharpness. To overcome such limitations, statistical postprocessing methods are commonly applied to these forecasts. In this study, a full-distributional spatial post-processing method is applied to short-range precipitation forecasts over Austria using Standardized Anomaly Model Output Statistics (SAMOS). Following Stauffer et al. (2016), observation and forecast fields are transformed into standardized anomalies by subtracting a site-specific climatological mean and dividing by the climatological standard deviation. Due to the need of fitting only a single regression model for the whole domain, the SAMOS framework provides a computationally inexpensive method to create operationally calibrated probabilistic forecasts for any arbitrary location or for all grid points in the domain simultaneously. Taking advantage of the INCA system (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis), high resolution analyses are used for the computation of the observed climatology and for model training. The INCA system operationally combines station measurements and remote sensing data into real-time objective analysis fields at 1 km-horizontal resolution and 1 h-temporal resolution. The precipitation forecast used in this study is obtained from a limited area model ensemble prediction system also operated by ZAMG. The so called ALADIN-LAEF provides, by applying a multi-physics approach, a 17-member forecast at a horizontal resolution of 10.9 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour. The performed SAMOS approach statistically combines the in-house developed high resolution analysis and ensemble prediction system. The station-based validation of 6 hour precipitation sums

  20. Predicting the Oxygen-Binding Properties of Platinum Nanoparticle Ensembles by Combining High-Precision Electron Microscopy and Density Functional Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarons, Jolyon; Jones, Lewys; Varambhia, Aakash; MacArthur, Katherine E; Ozkaya, Dogan; Sarwar, Misbah; Skylaris, Chris-Kriton; Nellist, Peter D

    2017-07-12

    Many studies of heterogeneous catalysis, both experimental and computational, make use of idealized structures such as extended surfaces or regular polyhedral nanoparticles. This simplification neglects the morphological diversity in real commercial oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) catalysts used in fuel-cell cathodes. Here we introduce an approach that combines 3D nanoparticle structures obtained from high-throughput high-precision electron microscopy with density functional theory. Discrepancies between experimental observations and cuboctahedral/truncated-octahedral particles are revealed and discussed using a range of widely used descriptors, such as electron-density, d-band centers, and generalized coordination numbers. We use this new approach to determine the optimum particle size for which both detrimental surface roughness and particle shape effects are minimized.

  1. Neural Network Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter

    1990-01-01

    We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...... networks....

  2. Exact analysis of Packet Reversed Packet Combining Scheme and Modified Packet Combining Scheme; and a combined scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhunia, C.T.

    2007-07-01

    Packet combining scheme is a well defined simple error correction scheme for the detection and correction of errors at the receiver. Although it permits a higher throughput when compared to other basic ARQ protocols, packet combining (PC) scheme fails to correct errors when errors occur in the same bit locations of copies. In a previous work, a scheme known as Packet Reversed Packet Combining (PRPC) Scheme that will correct errors which occur at the same bit location of erroneous copies, was studied however PRPC does not handle a situation where a packet has more than 1 error bit. The Modified Packet Combining (MPC) Scheme that can correct double or higher bit errors was studied elsewhere. Both PRPC and MPC schemes are believed to offer higher throughput in previous studies, however neither adequate investigation nor exact analysis was done to substantiate this claim of higher throughput. In this work, an exact analysis of both PRPC and MPC is carried out and the results reported. A combined protocol (PRPC and MPC) is proposed and the analysis shows that it is capable of offering even higher throughput and better error correction capability at high bit error rate (BER) and larger packet size. (author)

  3. A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

    2011-01-01

    An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

  4. Probability Maps for the Visualization of Assimilation Ensemble Flow Data

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas; Hadwiger, Markus; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    resampling, every member can follow up on any of the members before resampling. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially

  5. Analysis of a combined Rankine-vapour-compression refrigeration cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aphornratana, Satha; Sriveerakul, Thanarath

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a theoretical analysis of a heat-powered refrigeration cycle, a combined Rankine-vapour-compression refrigeration cycle. This refrigeration cycle combines an Organic Rankine Cycle and a vapour-compression cycle. The cycle can be powered by low grade thermal energy as low as 60 deg. C and can produce cooling temperature as low as -10 deg. C. In the analysis, two combined Rankine-vapour-compression refrigeration cycles were investigated: the system with R22 and the system with R134a. Calculated COP values between 0.1 and 0.6 of both the systems were found.

  6. Recognizing stationary and locomotion activities using combinational of spectral analysis with statistical descriptors features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainudin, M. N. Shah; Sulaiman, Md Nasir; Mustapha, Norwati; Perumal, Thinagaran

    2017-10-01

    Prior knowledge in pervasive computing recently garnered a lot of attention due to its high demand in various application domains. Human activity recognition (HAR) considered as the applications that are widely explored by the expertise that provides valuable information to the human. Accelerometer sensor-based approach is utilized as devices to undergo the research in HAR since their small in size and this sensor already build-in in the various type of smartphones. However, the existence of high inter-class similarities among the class tends to degrade the recognition performance. Hence, this work presents the method for activity recognition using our proposed features from combinational of spectral analysis with statistical descriptors that able to tackle the issue of differentiating stationary and locomotion activities. The noise signal is filtered using Fourier Transform before it will be extracted using two different groups of features, spectral frequency analysis, and statistical descriptors. Extracted signal later will be classified using random forest ensemble classifier models. The recognition results show the good accuracy performance for stationary and locomotion activities based on USC HAD datasets.

  7. Representing Color Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetverikov, Andrey; Campana, Gianluca; Kristjánsson, Árni

    2017-10-01

    Colors are rarely uniform, yet little is known about how people represent color distributions. We introduce a new method for studying color ensembles based on intertrial learning in visual search. Participants looked for an oddly colored diamond among diamonds with colors taken from either uniform or Gaussian color distributions. On test trials, the targets had various distances in feature space from the mean of the preceding distractor color distribution. Targets on test trials therefore served as probes into probabilistic representations of distractor colors. Test-trial response times revealed a striking similarity between the physical distribution of colors and their internal representations. The results demonstrate that the visual system represents color ensembles in a more detailed way than previously thought, coding not only mean and variance but, most surprisingly, the actual shape (uniform or Gaussian) of the distribution of colors in the environment.

  8. Tailored Random Graph Ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, E S; Annibale, A; Coolen, A C C

    2013-01-01

    Tailored graph ensembles are a developing bridge between biological networks and statistical mechanics. The aim is to use this concept to generate a suite of rigorous tools that can be used to quantify and compare the topology of cellular signalling networks, such as protein-protein interaction networks and gene regulation networks. We calculate exact and explicit formulae for the leading orders in the system size of the Shannon entropies of random graph ensembles constrained with degree distribution and degree-degree correlation. We also construct an ergodic detailed balance Markov chain with non-trivial acceptance probabilities which converges to a strictly uniform measure and is based on edge swaps that conserve all degrees. The acceptance probabilities can be generalized to define Markov chains that target any alternative desired measure on the space of directed or undirected graphs, in order to generate graphs with more sophisticated topological features.

  9. Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Dietrich

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.

  10. Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of a Severe Downslope Windstorm in Complex Terrain: Implications for Forecast Predictability Scales and Targeted Observing Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    observations, linear regression finds the straight line that explains the linear relationship of the sample. This line is given by the equation y = mx + b...SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF A SEVERE DOWNSLOPE WINDSTORM IN COMPLEX TERRAIN: IMPLICATIONS FOR FORECAST PREDICTABILITY SCALES AND TARGETED OBSERVING...SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF A SEVERE DOWNSLOPE WINDSTORM IN COMPLEX TERRAIN: IMPLICATIONS FOR FORECAST PREDICTABILITY SCALES AND TARGETED OBSERVING NETWORKS

  11. Imprinting and recalling cortical ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S; Yuste, Rafael

    2016-08-12

    Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent building blocks of cortical circuits. These ensembles could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations from ensembles in the visual cortex of awake mice builds neuronal ensembles that recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexisting ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single- cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  12. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

    2016-01-01

    the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...... approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product...

  13. Ensemble support vector machine classification of dementia using structural MRI and mini-mental state examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Lauge; Nielsen, Mads

    2018-05-15

    The International Challenge for Automated Prediction of MCI from MRI data offered independent, standardized comparison of machine learning algorithms for multi-class classification of normal control (NC), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), converting MCI (cMCI), and Alzheimer's disease (AD) using brain imaging and general cognition. We proposed to use an ensemble of support vector machines (SVMs) that combined bagging without replacement and feature selection. SVM is the most commonly used algorithm in multivariate classification of dementia, and it was therefore valuable to evaluate the potential benefit of ensembling this type of classifier. The ensemble SVM, using either a linear or a radial basis function (RBF) kernel, achieved multi-class classification accuracies of 55.6% and 55.0% in the challenge test set (60 NC, 60 MCI, 60 cMCI, 60 AD), resulting in a third place in the challenge. Similar feature subset sizes were obtained for both kernels, and the most frequently selected MRI features were the volumes of the two hippocampal subregions left presubiculum and right subiculum. Post-challenge analysis revealed that enforcing a minimum number of selected features and increasing the number of ensemble classifiers improved classification accuracy up to 59.1%. The ensemble SVM outperformed single SVM classifications consistently in the challenge test set. Ensemble methods using bagging and feature selection can improve the performance of the commonly applied SVM classifier in dementia classification. This resulted in competitive classification accuracies in the International Challenge for Automated Prediction of MCI from MRI data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pirttioja, N. K.; Carter, T. R.; Fronzek, S.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H. D.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, M.; Asseng, S.; Baranowski, P.; Basso, B.; Bodin, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; Destain, M. F.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Francois, L.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, Petr; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kollas, C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lorite, I. J.; Minet, J.; Minquez, M. I.; Montesino, M.; Moriondo, M.; Müller, C.; Nendel, C.; Öztürk, I.; Perego, A.; Rodriguez, A.; Ruane, A. C.; Ruget, F.; Sanna, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Slawinski, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wu, L.; Zhao, Z.; Rötter, R. P.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, č. 31 (2015), s. 87-105 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA MZe QJ1310123; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13030 Grant - others:German Federal Ministries of Education and Research, and Food and Agriculture(DE) 2812ERA115 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate * crop model * impact response surface * IRS * sensitivity analysis * wheat * yield Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.690, year: 2015

  15. Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven eMorrison

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor’s gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance, articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and nonmajors (N = 285 viewed sixteen 30-second performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble’s articulation, dynamics, technique and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble’s performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity.

  16. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon

    2016-06-14

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.

  17. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon; Law, Kody J. H.; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.

  18. Analysis of Chromothripsis by Combined FISH and Microarray Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, Ruth N

    2018-01-01

    Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) to metaphase chromosomes, in conjunction with SNP array, array CGH, or whole genome sequencing, can help determine the organization of abnormal genomes after chromothripsis and other types of complex genome rearrangement. DNA microarrays can identify the changes in copy number, but they do not give information on the organization of the abnormal chromosomes, balanced rearrangements, or abnormalities of the centromeres and other regions comprised of highly repetitive DNA. Many of these details can be determined by the strategic use of metaphase FISH. FISH is a single-cell technique, so it can identify low-frequency chromosome abnormalities, and it can determine which chromosome abnormalities occur in the same or different clonal populations. These are important considerations in cancer. Metaphase chromosomes are intact, so information about abnormalities of the chromosome homologues is preserved. Here we describe strategies for working out the organization of highly rearranged genomes by combining SNP array data with various metaphase FISH methods. This approach can also be used to address some of the uncertainties arising from whole genome or mate-pair sequencing data.

  19. Ensemble inequivalence: Landau theory and the ABC model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, O; Mukamel, D

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that systems with long-range interactions may exhibit different phase diagrams when studied within two different ensembles. In many of the previously studied examples of ensemble inequivalence, the phase diagrams differ only when the transition in one of the ensembles is first order. By contrast, in a recent study of a generalized ABC model, the canonical and grand-canonical ensembles of the model were shown to differ even when they both exhibit a continuous transition. Here we show that the order of the transition where ensemble inequivalence may occur is related to the symmetry properties of the order parameter associated with the transition. This is done by analyzing the Landau expansion of a generic model with long-range interactions. The conclusions drawn from the generic analysis are demonstrated for the ABC model by explicit calculation of its Landau expansion. (paper)

  20. Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bensema, Kevin; Gosink, Luke; Obermaier, Harald; Joy, Kenneth I.

    2016-10-01

    Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space. While this approach helps address conceptual and parametric uncertainties, the ensemble datasets produced by this technique present a special challenge to visualization researchers as the ensemble dataset records a distribution of possible values for each location in the domain. Contemporary visualization approaches that rely solely on summary statistics (e.g., mean and variance) cannot convey the detailed information encoded in ensemble distributions that are paramount to ensemble analysis; summary statistics provide no information about modality classification and modality persistence. To address this problem, we propose a novel technique that classifies high-variance locations based on the modality of the distribution of ensemble predictions. Additionally, we develop a set of confidence metrics to inform the end-user of the quality of fit between the distribution at a given location and its assigned class. We apply a similar method to time-varying ensembles to illustrate the relationship between peak variance and bimodal or multimodal behavior. These classification schemes enable a deeper understanding of the behavior of the ensemble members by distinguishing between distributions that can be described by a single tendency and distributions which reflect divergent trends in the ensemble.

  1. Energy analysis handbook. CAC document 214. [Combining process analysis with input-output analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bullard, C. W.; Penner, P. S.; Pilati, D. A.

    1976-10-01

    Methods are presented for calculating the energy required, directly and indirectly, to produce all types of goods and services. Procedures for combining process analysis with input-output analysis are described. This enables the analyst to focus data acquisition cost-effectively, and to achieve a specified degree of accuracy in the results. The report presents sample calculations and provides the tables and charts needed to perform most energy cost calculations, including the cost of systems for producing or conserving energy.

  2. Impact of ensemble learning in the assessment of skeletal maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, Pedro; Moura, Daniel C; Guevara López, Miguel Angel; Guerra, Conceição; Pinto, Daniela; Ramos, Isabel

    2014-09-01

    The assessment of the bone age, or skeletal maturity, is an important task in pediatrics that measures the degree of maturation of children's bones. Nowadays, there is no standard clinical procedure for assessing bone age and the most widely used approaches are the Greulich and Pyle and the Tanner and Whitehouse methods. Computer methods have been proposed to automatize the process; however, there is a lack of exploration about how to combine the features of the different parts of the hand, and how to take advantage of ensemble techniques for this purpose. This paper presents a study where the use of ensemble techniques for improving bone age assessment is evaluated. A new computer method was developed that extracts descriptors for each joint of each finger, which are then combined using different ensemble schemes for obtaining a final bone age value. Three popular ensemble schemes are explored in this study: bagging, stacking and voting. Best results were achieved by bagging with a rule-based regression (M5P), scoring a mean absolute error of 10.16 months. Results show that ensemble techniques improve the prediction performance of most of the evaluated regression algorithms, always achieving best or comparable to best results. Therefore, the success of the ensemble methods allow us to conclude that their use may improve computer-based bone age assessment, offering a scalable option for utilizing multiple regions of interest and combining their output.

  3. Diversity in random subspacing ensembles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsymbal, A.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Cunningham, P.; Kambayashi, Y.; Mohania, M.K.; Wöß, W.

    2004-01-01

    Ensembles of learnt models constitute one of the main current directions in machine learning and data mining. It was shown experimentally and theoretically that in order for an ensemble to be effective, it should consist of classifiers having diversity in their predictions. A number of ways are

  4. PSO-Ensemble Demo Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2004-01-01

    Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output...

  5. New concept of statistical ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorenstein, M.I.

    2009-01-01

    An extension of the standard concept of the statistical ensembles is suggested. Namely, the statistical ensembles with extensive quantities fluctuating according to an externally given distribution is introduced. Applications in the statistical models of multiple hadron production in high energy physics are discussed.

  6. Ensembl Genomes 2016: more genomes, more complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersey, Paul Julian; Allen, James E; Armean, Irina; Boddu, Sanjay; Bolt, Bruce J; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Christensen, Mikkel; Davis, Paul; Falin, Lee J; Grabmueller, Christoph; Humphrey, Jay; Kerhornou, Arnaud; Khobova, Julia; Aranganathan, Naveen K; Langridge, Nicholas; Lowy, Ernesto; McDowall, Mark D; Maheswari, Uma; Nuhn, Michael; Ong, Chuang Kee; Overduin, Bert; Paulini, Michael; Pedro, Helder; Perry, Emily; Spudich, Giulietta; Tapanari, Electra; Walts, Brandon; Williams, Gareth; Tello-Ruiz, Marcela; Stein, Joshua; Wei, Sharon; Ware, Doreen; Bolser, Daniel M; Howe, Kevin L; Kulesha, Eugene; Lawson, Daniel; Maslen, Gareth; Staines, Daniel M

    2016-01-04

    Ensembl Genomes (http://www.ensemblgenomes.org) is an integrating resource for genome-scale data from non-vertebrate species, complementing the resources for vertebrate genomics developed in the context of the Ensembl project (http://www.ensembl.org). Together, the two resources provide a consistent set of programmatic and interactive interfaces to a rich range of data including reference sequence, gene models, transcriptional data, genetic variation and comparative analysis. This paper provides an update to the previous publications about the resource, with a focus on recent developments. These include the development of new analyses and views to represent polyploid genomes (of which bread wheat is the primary exemplar); and the continued up-scaling of the resource, which now includes over 23 000 bacterial genomes, 400 fungal genomes and 100 protist genomes, in addition to 55 genomes from invertebrate metazoa and 39 genomes from plants. This dramatic increase in the number of included genomes is one part of a broader effort to automate the integration of archival data (genome sequence, but also associated RNA sequence data and variant calls) within the context of reference genomes and make it available through the Ensembl user interfaces. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  7. Enhancing Predictive Accuracy of Cardiac Autonomic Neuropathy Using Blood Biochemistry Features and Iterative Multitier Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abawajy, Jemal; Kelarev, Andrei; Chowdhury, Morshed U; Jelinek, Herbert F

    2016-01-01

    Blood biochemistry attributes form an important class of tests, routinely collected several times per year for many patients with diabetes. The objective of this study is to investigate the role of blood biochemistry for improving the predictive accuracy of the diagnosis of cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) progression. Blood biochemistry contributes to CAN, and so it is a causative factor that can provide additional power for the diagnosis of CAN especially in the absence of a complete set of Ewing tests. We introduce automated iterative multitier ensembles (AIME) and investigate their performance in comparison to base classifiers and standard ensemble classifiers for blood biochemistry attributes. AIME incorporate diverse ensembles into several tiers simultaneously and combine them into one automatically generated integrated system so that one ensemble acts as an integral part of another ensemble. We carried out extensive experimental analysis using large datasets from the diabetes screening research initiative (DiScRi) project. The results of our experiments show that several blood biochemistry attributes can be used to supplement the Ewing battery for the detection of CAN in situations where one or more of the Ewing tests cannot be completed because of the individual difficulties faced by each patient in performing the tests. The results show that AIME provide higher accuracy as a multitier CAN classification paradigm. The best predictive accuracy of 99.57% has been obtained by the AIME combining decorate on top tier with bagging on middle tier based on random forest. Practitioners can use these findings to increase the accuracy of CAN diagnosis.

  8. Credit scoring using ensemble of various classifiers on reduced feature set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dahiya Shashi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit scoring methods are widely used for evaluating loan applications in financial and banking institutions. Credit score identifies if applicant customers belong to good risk applicant group or a bad risk applicant group. These decisions are based on the demographic data of the customers, overall business by the customer with bank, and loan payment history of the loan applicants. The advantages of using credit scoring models include reducing the cost of credit analysis, enabling faster credit decisions and diminishing possible risk. Many statistical and machine learning techniques such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, Neural Networks and Decision tree algorithms have been used independently and as hybrid credit scoring models. This paper proposes an ensemble based technique combining seven individual models to increase the classification accuracy. Feature selection has also been used for selecting important attributes for classification. Cross classification was conducted using three data partitions. German credit dataset having 1000 instances and 21 attributes is used in the present study. The results of the experiments revealed that the ensemble model yielded a very good accuracy when compared to individual models. In all three different partitions, the ensemble model was able to classify more than 80% of the loan customers as good creditors correctly. Also, for 70:30 partition there was a good impact of feature selection on the accuracy of classifiers. The results were improved for almost all individual models including the ensemble model.

  9. An Ensemble Three-Dimensional Constrained Variational Analysis Method to Derive Large-Scale Forcing Data for Single-Column Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Shuaiqi

    Atmospheric vertical velocities and advective tendencies are essential as large-scale forcing data to drive single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulations (LES). They cannot be directly measured or easily calculated with great accuracy from field measurements. In the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, a constrained variational algorithm (1DCVA) has been used to derive large-scale forcing data over a sounding network domain with the aid of flux measurements at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA). We extend the 1DCVA algorithm into three dimensions (3DCVA) along with other improvements to calculate gridded large-scale forcing data. We also introduce an ensemble framework using different background data, error covariance matrices and constraint variables to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing data. The results of sensitivity study show that the derived forcing data and SCM simulated clouds are more sensitive to the background data than to the error covariance matrices and constraint variables, while horizontal moisture advection has relatively large sensitivities to the precipitation, the dominate constraint variable. Using a mid-latitude cyclone case study in March 3rd, 2000 at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, we investigate the spatial distribution of diabatic heating sources (Q1) and moisture sinks (Q2), and show that they are consistent with the satellite clouds and intuitive structure of the mid-latitude cyclone. We also evaluate the Q1 and Q2 in analysis/reanalysis, finding that the regional analysis/reanalysis all tend to underestimate the sub-grid scale upward transport of moist static energy in the lower troposphere. With the uncertainties from large-scale forcing data and observation specified, we compare SCM results and observations and find that models have large biases on cloud properties which could not be fully explained by the uncertainty from the large-scale forcing

  10. Exergy analysis for combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Zelong; Chen, Lingen; Sun, Fengrui [College of Naval Architecture and Power, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China)

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents the study of exergy analysis of combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles. The analytical formulae of exergy loss and exergy efficiency are derived. The largest exergy loss location is determined. By taking the maximum exergy efficiency as the objective, the choice of bottom cycle pressure ratio is optimized by detailed numerical examples, and the corresponding optimal exergy efficiency is obtained. The influences of various parameters on the exergy efficiency and other performances are analyzed by numerical calculations.

  11. A Combined Metabolomic and Proteomic Analysis of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

    OpenAIRE

    Hajduk, Joanna; Klupczynska, Agnieszka; Dereziński, Paweł; Matysiak, Jan; Kokot, Piotr; Nowak, Dorota; Gajęcka, Marzena; Nowak-Markwitz, Ewa; Kokot, Zenon

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this pilot study was to apply a novel combined metabolomic and proteomic approach in analysis of gestational diabetes mellitus. The investigation was performed with plasma samples derived from pregnant women with diagnosed gestational diabetes mellitus (n = 18) and a matched control group (n = 13). The mass spectrometry-based analyses allowed to determine 42 free amino acids and low molecular-weight peptide profiles. Different expressions of several peptides and altered amino acid ...

  12. Exergy analysis for combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Zelong Zhang, Lingen Chen, Fengrui Sun

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the study of exergy analysis of combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles. The analytical formulae of exergy loss and exergy efficiency are derived. The largest exergy loss location is determined. By taking the maximum exergy efficiency as the objective, the choice of bottom cycle pressure ratio is optimized by detailed numerical examples, and the corresponding optimal exergy efficiency is obtained. The influences of various parameters on the exergy efficien...

  13. Combined multi-criteria and cost-benefit analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld

    1996-01-01

    The paper is an introduction to both theory and application of combined Cost-Benefit and Multi-Criteria Analysis. The first section is devoted to basic utility theory and its practical application in Cost-Benefit Analysis. Based on some of the problems encountered, arguments in favour...... of the application of utility-based Multi-Criteria Analyses methods as an extension and refinement of the traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis are provided. The theory presented in this paper is closely related the methods used in the WARP software (Leleur & Jensen, 1989). The presentation is however wider in scope.......The second section introduces the stated preference methodology used in WARP to create weight profiles for project pool sensitivity analysis. This section includes a simple example. The third section discusses how decision makers can get a priori aid to make their pair-wise comparisons based on project pool...

  14. Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Large-scale Hydrological Model to Prepare an Ensemble-based SWOT-like Data Assimilation Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, C. M.; Biancamaria, S.; Boone, A. A.; Ricci, S. M.; Garambois, P. A.; Decharme, B.; Rochoux, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Land Surface Models (LSM) coupled with River Routing schemes (RRM), are used in Global Climate Models (GCM) to simulate the continental part of the water cycle. They are key component of GCM as they provide boundary conditions to atmospheric and oceanic models. However, at global scale, errors arise mainly from simplified physics, atmospheric forcing, and input parameters. More particularly, those used in RRM, such as river width, depth and friction coefficients, are difficult to calibrate and are mostly derived from geomorphologic relationships, which may not always be realistic. In situ measurements are then used to calibrate these relationships and validate the model, but global in situ data are very sparse. Additionally, due to the lack of existing global river geomorphology database and accurate forcing, models are run at coarse resolution. This is typically the case of the ISBA-TRIP model used in this study.A complementary alternative to in-situ data are satellite observations. In this regard, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission, jointly developed by NASA/CNES/CSA/UKSA and scheduled for launch around 2020, should be very valuable to calibrate RRM parameters. It will provide maps of water surface elevation for rivers wider than 100 meters over continental surfaces in between 78°S and 78°N and also direct observation of river geomorphological parameters such as width ans slope.Yet, before assimilating such kind of data, it is needed to analyze RRM temporal sensitivity to time-constant parameters. This study presents such analysis over large river basins for the TRIP RRM. Model output uncertainty, represented by unconditional variance, is decomposed into ordered contribution from each parameter. Doing a time-dependent analysis allows then to identify to which parameters modeled water level and discharge are the most sensitive along a hydrological year. The results show that local parameters directly impact water levels, while

  15. Random ensemble learning for EEG classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Mohammad-Parsa; Pompili, Dario; Elisevich, Kost; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2018-01-01

    Real-time detection of seizure activity in epilepsy patients is critical in averting seizure activity and improving patients' quality of life. Accurate evaluation, presurgical assessment, seizure prevention, and emergency alerts all depend on the rapid detection of seizure onset. A new method of feature selection and classification for rapid and precise seizure detection is discussed wherein informative components of electroencephalogram (EEG)-derived data are extracted and an automatic method is presented using infinite independent component analysis (I-ICA) to select independent features. The feature space is divided into subspaces via random selection and multichannel support vector machines (SVMs) are used to classify these subspaces. The result of each classifier is then combined by majority voting to establish the final output. In addition, a random subspace ensemble using a combination of SVM, multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network and an extended k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), called extended nearest neighbor (ENN), is developed for the EEG and electrocorticography (ECoG) big data problem. To evaluate the solution, a benchmark ECoG of eight patients with temporal and extratemporal epilepsy was implemented in a distributed computing framework as a multitier cloud-computing architecture. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and both false positive and false negative ratios of the proposed method were found to be 0.97, 0.98, 0.96, 0.04, and 0.02, respectively. Application of the solution to cases under investigation with ECoG has also been effected to demonstrate its utility. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-11-01

    Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For

  17. The Use of Artificial-Intelligence-Based Ensembles for Intrusion Detection: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulshan Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In supervised learning-based classification, ensembles have been successfully employed to different application domains. In the literature, many researchers have proposed different ensembles by considering different combination methods, training datasets, base classifiers, and many other factors. Artificial-intelligence-(AI- based techniques play prominent role in development of ensemble for intrusion detection (ID and have many benefits over other techniques. However, there is no comprehensive review of ensembles in general and AI-based ensembles for ID to examine and understand their current research status to solve the ID problem. Here, an updated review of ensembles and their taxonomies has been presented in general. The paper also presents the updated review of various AI-based ensembles for ID (in particular during last decade. The related studies of AI-based ensembles are compared by set of evaluation metrics driven from (1 architecture & approach followed; (2 different methods utilized in different phases of ensemble learning; (3 other measures used to evaluate classification performance of the ensembles. The paper also provides the future directions of the research in this area. The paper will help the better understanding of different directions in which research of ensembles has been done in general and specifically: field of intrusion detection systems (IDSs.

  18. Modeling polydispersive ensembles of diamond nanoparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, Amanda S

    2013-01-01

    While significant progress has been made toward production of monodispersed samples of a variety of nanoparticles, in cases such as diamond nanoparticles (nanodiamonds) a significant degree of polydispersivity persists, so scaling-up of laboratory applications to industrial levels has its challenges. In many cases, however, monodispersivity is not essential for reliable application, provided that the inevitable uncertainties are just as predictable as the functional properties. As computational methods of materials design are becoming more widespread, there is a growing need for robust methods for modeling ensembles of nanoparticles, that capture the structural complexity characteristic of real specimens. In this paper we present a simple statistical approach to modeling of ensembles of nanoparticles, and apply it to nanodiamond, based on sets of individual simulations that have been carefully selected to describe specific structural sources that are responsible for scattering of fundamental properties, and that are typically difficult to eliminate experimentally. For the purposes of demonstration we show how scattering in the Fermi energy and the electronic band gap are related to different structural variations (sources), and how these results can be combined strategically to yield statistically significant predictions of the properties of an entire ensemble of nanodiamonds, rather than merely one individual ‘model’ particle or a non-representative sub-set. (paper)

  19. Ensemble Clustering using Semidefinite Programming with Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vikas; Mukherjee, Lopamudra; Peng, Jiming; Xu, Jinhui

    2010-05-01

    In this paper, we study the ensemble clustering problem, where the input is in the form of multiple clustering solutions. The goal of ensemble clustering algorithms is to aggregate the solutions into one solution that maximizes the agreement in the input ensemble. We obtain several new results for this problem. Specifically, we show that the notion of agreement under such circumstances can be better captured using a 2D string encoding rather than a voting strategy, which is common among existing approaches. Our optimization proceeds by first constructing a non-linear objective function which is then transformed into a 0-1 Semidefinite program (SDP) using novel convexification techniques. This model can be subsequently relaxed to a polynomial time solvable SDP. In addition to the theoretical contributions, our experimental results on standard machine learning and synthetic datasets show that this approach leads to improvements not only in terms of the proposed agreement measure but also the existing agreement measures based on voting strategies. In addition, we identify several new application scenarios for this problem. These include combining multiple image segmentations and generating tissue maps from multiple-channel Diffusion Tensor brain images to identify the underlying structure of the brain.

  20. Decimated Input Ensembles for Improved Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tumer, Kagan; Oza, Nikunj C.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

    1999-01-01

    Recently, many researchers have demonstrated that using classifier ensembles (e.g., averaging the outputs of multiple classifiers before reaching a classification decision) leads to improved performance for many difficult generalization problems. However, in many domains there are serious impediments to such "turnkey" classification accuracy improvements. Most notable among these is the deleterious effect of highly correlated classifiers on the ensemble performance. One particular solution to this problem is generating "new" training sets by sampling the original one. However, with finite number of patterns, this causes a reduction in the training patterns each classifier sees, often resulting in considerably worsened generalization performance (particularly for high dimensional data domains) for each individual classifier. Generally, this drop in the accuracy of the individual classifier performance more than offsets any potential gains due to combining, unless diversity among classifiers is actively promoted. In this work, we introduce a method that: (1) reduces the correlation among the classifiers; (2) reduces the dimensionality of the data, thus lessening the impact of the 'curse of dimensionality'; and (3) improves the classification performance of the ensemble.

  1. IDM-PhyChm-Ens: intelligent decision-making ensemble methodology for classification of human breast cancer using physicochemical properties of amino acids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Safdar; Majid, Abdul; Khan, Asifullah

    2014-04-01

    Development of an accurate and reliable intelligent decision-making method for the construction of cancer diagnosis system is one of the fast growing research areas of health sciences. Such decision-making system can provide adequate information for cancer diagnosis and drug discovery. Descriptors derived from physicochemical properties of protein sequences are very useful for classifying cancerous proteins. Recently, several interesting research studies have been reported on breast cancer classification. To this end, we propose the exploitation of the physicochemical properties of amino acids in protein primary sequences such as hydrophobicity (Hd) and hydrophilicity (Hb) for breast cancer classification. Hd and Hb properties of amino acids, in recent literature, are reported to be quite effective in characterizing the constituent amino acids and are used to study protein foldings, interactions, structures, and sequence-order effects. Especially, using these physicochemical properties, we observed that proline, serine, tyrosine, cysteine, arginine, and asparagine amino acids offer high discrimination between cancerous and healthy proteins. In addition, unlike traditional ensemble classification approaches, the proposed 'IDM-PhyChm-Ens' method was developed by combining the decision spaces of a specific classifier trained on different feature spaces. The different feature spaces used were amino acid composition, split amino acid composition, and pseudo amino acid composition. Consequently, we have exploited different feature spaces using Hd and Hb properties of amino acids to develop an accurate method for classification of cancerous protein sequences. We developed ensemble classifiers using diverse learning algorithms such as random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) trained on different feature spaces. We observed that ensemble-RF, in case of cancer classification, performed better than ensemble-SVM and ensemble-KNN. Our

  2. A Combined Metabolomic and Proteomic Analysis of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Hajduk

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this pilot study was to apply a novel combined metabolomic and proteomic approach in analysis of gestational diabetes mellitus. The investigation was performed with plasma samples derived from pregnant women with diagnosed gestational diabetes mellitus (n = 18 and a matched control group (n = 13. The mass spectrometry-based analyses allowed to determine 42 free amino acids and low molecular-weight peptide profiles. Different expressions of several peptides and altered amino acid profiles were observed in the analyzed groups. The combination of proteomic and metabolomic data allowed obtaining the model with a high discriminatory power, where amino acids ethanolamine, l-citrulline, l-asparagine, and peptide ions with m/z 1488.59; 4111.89 and 2913.15 had the highest contribution to the model. The sensitivity (94.44% and specificity (84.62%, as well as the total group membership classification value (90.32% calculated from the post hoc classification matrix of a joint model were the highest when compared with a single analysis of either amino acid levels or peptide ion intensities. The obtained results indicated a high potential of integration of proteomic and metabolomics analysis regardless the sample size. This promising approach together with clinical evaluation of the subjects can also be used in the study of other diseases.

  3. Cost-benefit analysis for combined heat and power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sazdovski, Ace; Fushtikj, Vangel

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a methodology and practical application of Cost-Benefit Analysis for Combined Heat and Power Plant (Cogeneration facility). Methodology include up-to-date and real data for cogeneration plant in accordance with the trends ill development of the CHP technology. As a case study a CHP plant that could be built-up in Republic of Macedonia is analyzed. The main economic parameters for project evaluation, such as NPV and IRR are calculated for a number of possible scenarios. The analyze present the economic outputs that could be used as a decision for CHP project acceptance for investment. (Author)

  4. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  5. XQCAT eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool

    CERN Document Server

    Barducci, D; Buchkremer, M; Marrouche, J; Moretti, S; Panizzi, L

    2015-01-01

    XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool) is a tool aimed to determine exclusion Confidence Levels (eCLs) for scenarios of new physics characterised by the presence of one or multiple heavy extra quarks (XQ) which interact through Yukawa couplings with any of the Standard Model (SM) quarks. The code uses a database of efficiencies for pre-simulated processes of Quantum Chromo-Dynamics (QCD) pair production and on-shell decays of extra quarks. In the version 1.0 of XQCAT the efficiencies have been computed for a set of seven publicly available search results by the CMS experiment, and the package is subject to future updates to include further searches by both ATLAS and CMS collaborations. The input for the code is a text file in which masses, branching ratios (BRs) and dominant chirality of the couplings of the new quarks are provided. The output of the code is the eCL of the test point for each implemented experimental analysis considered individually and, when possible, in statistical combination.

  6. Classification of premalignant pancreatic cancer mass-spectrometry data using decision tree ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong G William

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pancreatic cancer is the fourth leading cause of cancer death in the United States. Consequently, identification of clinically relevant biomarkers for the early detection of this cancer type is urgently needed. In recent years, proteomics profiling techniques combined with various data analysis methods have been successfully used to gain critical insights into processes and mechanisms underlying pathologic conditions, particularly as they relate to cancer. However, the high dimensionality of proteomics data combined with their relatively small sample sizes poses a significant challenge to current data mining methodology where many of the standard methods cannot be applied directly. Here, we propose a novel methodological framework using machine learning method, in which decision tree based classifier ensembles coupled with feature selection methods, is applied to proteomics data generated from premalignant pancreatic cancer. Results This study explores the utility of three different feature selection schemas (Student t test, Wilcoxon rank sum test and genetic algorithm to reduce the high dimensionality of a pancreatic cancer proteomic dataset. Using the top features selected from each method, we compared the prediction performances of a single decision tree algorithm C4.5 with six different decision-tree based classifier ensembles (Random forest, Stacked generalization, Bagging, Adaboost, Logitboost and Multiboost. We show that ensemble classifiers always outperform single decision tree classifier in having greater accuracies and smaller prediction errors when applied to a pancreatic cancer proteomics dataset. Conclusion In our cross validation framework, classifier ensembles generally have better classification accuracies compared to that of a single decision tree when applied to a pancreatic cancer proteomic dataset, thus suggesting its utility in future proteomics data analysis. Additionally, the use of feature selection

  7. Exergy analysis of a combined power and cooling cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fontalvo, Armando; Pinzon, Horacio; Duarte, Jorge; Bula, Antonio; Quiroga, Arturo Gonzalez; Padilla, Ricardo Vasquez

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive exergy analysis of a combined power and cooling cycle which combines a Rankine and absorption refrigeration cycle by using ammonia–water mixture as working fluid. A thermodynamic model was developed in Matlab ® to find out the effect of pressure ratio, ammonia mass fraction at the absorber and turbine efficiency on the total exergy destruction of the cycle. The contribution of each cycle component on the total exergy destruction was also determined. The results showed that total exergy destruction decreases when pressure ratio increases, and reaches a maximum at x ≈ 0.5, when ammonia mass fraction is varied at absorber. Also, it was found that the absorber, the boiler and the turbine had the major contribution to the total exergy destruction of the cycle, and the increase of the turbine efficiency reduces the total exergy destruction. The effect of rectification cooling source (external and internal) on the cycle output was investigated, and the results showed that internal rectification cooling reduces the total exergy destruction of the cycle. Finally, the effect of the presence or absence of the superheater after the rectification process was determined and it was obtained that the superheated condition reduces the exergy destruction of the cycle at high turbine efficiency values. Highlights: • A parametric exergy analysis of a combined power and cooling cycle is performed. • Two scenarios for rectifier cooling (internal and external) were studied. • Internal cooling source is more exergetic efficient than external cooling source. • The absorber and boiler have the largest total exergy destruction. • Our results show that the superheater reduces the exergy destruction of the cycle

  8. Numerical Analysis of Combined Valve Hydrodynamic Characteristics for Turbine System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhowmik, P. K.; Shamim, J. A.; Gairola, A.; Arif, M.; Suh, Kune Y. [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    precisely by the valve manufacturer. As a matter of fact, attempts were made to obtain flow characteristic curves resorting to analytical as well as numerical methods. The flow characteristic curve relates the stem lift with mass flow rate at a specific temperature and pressure. This paper focuses on computational and numerical analysis of the combined stop and control valve. Combined Airflow Regulation Analysis (CARA) is performed to check on the hydrodynamic characteristic, which is represented by flow coefficient characteristic. CATIA V.5 and ANSYS CFX are used for three-dimensional computer-aided design and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis, respectively. Flow characteristic curves are plotted by calculating theoretical and numerical mass flow rate. Hydrodynamic analysis was made of the combined stop and control valve for the turbine system using ANSYS CFX. The result of the numerical study represented by the valve flow coefficient with different normalized values of valve stem movement L/D and different pressure ratios of valve outlet and inlet agrees well with the ideal case and other similar previous experimental results. This study also provided a solid understanding with versatile options for analyzing the hydrodynamics of the combined valve considering the various internal geometry, seat, plug, and the inlet plus outlet boundary conditions to improve the efficiency, performance and reliability of the turbine system of small as well as large power conversion system using the numerical analysis with minimal cost and time.

  9. Numerical Analysis of Combined Valve Hydrodynamic Characteristics for Turbine System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhowmik, P. K.; Shamim, J. A.; Gairola, A.; Arif, M.; Suh, Kune Y.

    2014-01-01

    precisely by the valve manufacturer. As a matter of fact, attempts were made to obtain flow characteristic curves resorting to analytical as well as numerical methods. The flow characteristic curve relates the stem lift with mass flow rate at a specific temperature and pressure. This paper focuses on computational and numerical analysis of the combined stop and control valve. Combined Airflow Regulation Analysis (CARA) is performed to check on the hydrodynamic characteristic, which is represented by flow coefficient characteristic. CATIA V.5 and ANSYS CFX are used for three-dimensional computer-aided design and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis, respectively. Flow characteristic curves are plotted by calculating theoretical and numerical mass flow rate. Hydrodynamic analysis was made of the combined stop and control valve for the turbine system using ANSYS CFX. The result of the numerical study represented by the valve flow coefficient with different normalized values of valve stem movement L/D and different pressure ratios of valve outlet and inlet agrees well with the ideal case and other similar previous experimental results. This study also provided a solid understanding with versatile options for analyzing the hydrodynamics of the combined valve considering the various internal geometry, seat, plug, and the inlet plus outlet boundary conditions to improve the efficiency, performance and reliability of the turbine system of small as well as large power conversion system using the numerical analysis with minimal cost and time

  10. River Flow Prediction Using the Nearest Neighbor Probabilistic Ensemble Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sanikhani

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In the recent years, researchers interested on probabilistic forecasting of hydrologic variables such river flow.A probabilistic approach aims at quantifying the prediction reliability through a probability distribution function or a prediction interval for the unknown future value. The evaluation of the uncertainty associated to the forecast is seen as a fundamental information, not only to correctly assess the prediction, but also to compare forecasts from different methods and to evaluate actions and decisions conditionally on the expected values. Several probabilistic approaches have been proposed in the literature, including (1 methods that use resampling techniques to assess parameter and model uncertainty, such as the Metropolis algorithm or the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE methodology for an application to runoff prediction, (2 methods based on processing the forecast errors of past data to produce the probability distributions of future values and (3 methods that evaluate how the uncertainty propagates from the rainfall forecast to the river discharge prediction, as the Bayesian forecasting system. Materials and Methods: In this study, two different probabilistic methods are used for river flow prediction.Then the uncertainty related to the forecast is quantified. One approach is based on linear predictors and in the other, nearest neighbor was used. The nonlinear probabilistic ensemble can be used for nonlinear time series analysis using locally linear predictors, while NNPE utilize a method adapted for one step ahead nearest neighbor methods. In this regard, daily river discharge (twelve years of Dizaj and Mashin Stations on Baranduz-Chay basin in west Azerbijan and Zard-River basin in Khouzestan provinces were used, respectively. The first six years of data was applied for fitting the model. The next three years was used to calibration and the remained three yeas utilized for testing the models

  11. The canonical ensemble redefined - 1: Formalism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkataraman, R.

    1984-12-01

    For studying the thermodynamic properties of systems we propose an ensemble that lies in between the familiar canonical and microcanonical ensembles. We point out the transition from the canonical to microcanonical ensemble and prove from a comparative study that all these ensembles do not yield the same results even in the thermodynamic limit. An investigation of the coupling between two or more systems with these ensembles suggests that the state of thermodynamical equilibrium is a special case of statistical equilibrium. (author)

  12. A comparison of resampling schemes for estimating model observer performance with small ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshahaby, Fatma E. A.; Jha, Abhinav K.; Ghaly, Michael; Frey, Eric C.

    2017-09-01

    In objective assessment of image quality, an ensemble of images is used to compute the 1st and 2nd order statistics of the data. Often, only a finite number of images is available, leading to the issue of statistical variability in numerical observer performance. Resampling-based strategies can help overcome this issue. In this paper, we compared different combinations of resampling schemes (the leave-one-out (LOO) and the half-train/half-test (HT/HT)) and model observers (the conventional channelized Hotelling observer (CHO), channelized linear discriminant (CLD) and channelized quadratic discriminant). Observer performance was quantified by the area under the ROC curve (AUC). For a binary classification task and for each observer, the AUC value for an ensemble size of 2000 samples per class served as a gold standard for that observer. Results indicated that each observer yielded a different performance depending on the ensemble size and the resampling scheme. For a small ensemble size, the combination [CHO, HT/HT] had more accurate rankings than the combination [CHO, LOO]. Using the LOO scheme, the CLD and CHO had similar performance for large ensembles. However, the CLD outperformed the CHO and gave more accurate rankings for smaller ensembles. As the ensemble size decreased, the performance of the [CHO, LOO] combination seriously deteriorated as opposed to the [CLD, LOO] combination. Thus, it might be desirable to use the CLD with the LOO scheme when smaller ensemble size is available.

  13. Combining network analysis with Cognitive Work Analysis: insights into social organisational and cooperation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Robert J; Baber, Chris; Stanton, Neville A; Jenkins, Daniel P; Revell, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) allows complex, sociotechnical systems to be explored in terms of their potential configurations. However, CWA does not explicitly analyse the manner in which person-to-person communication is performed in these configurations. Consequently, the combination of CWA with Social Network Analysis provides a means by which CWA output can be analysed to consider communication structure. The approach is illustrated through a case study of a military planning team. The case study shows how actor-to-actor and actor-to-function mapping can be analysed, in terms of centrality, to produce metrics of system structure under different operating conditions. In this paper, a technique for building social network diagrams from CWA is demonstrated.The approach allows analysts to appreciate the potential impact of organisational structure on a command system.

  14. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  15. Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.

  16. Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Man, Jun [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Zhang, Jiangjiang [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Li, Weixuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zeng, Lingzao [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Wu, Laosheng [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside California USA

    2016-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

  17. A multi-model ensemble approach to seabed mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diesing, Markus; Stephens, David

    2015-06-01

    Seabed habitat mapping based on swath acoustic data and ground-truth samples is an emergent and active marine science discipline. Significant progress could be achieved by transferring techniques and approaches that have been successfully developed and employed in such fields as terrestrial land cover mapping. One such promising approach is the multiple classifier system, which aims at improving classification performance by combining the outputs of several classifiers. Here we present results of a multi-model ensemble applied to multibeam acoustic data covering more than 5000 km2 of seabed in the North Sea with the aim to derive accurate spatial predictions of seabed substrate. A suite of six machine learning classifiers (k-Nearest Neighbour, Support Vector Machine, Classification Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network and Naïve Bayes) was trained with ground-truth sample data classified into seabed substrate classes and their prediction accuracy was assessed with an independent set of samples. The three and five best performing models were combined to classifier ensembles. Both ensembles led to increased prediction accuracy as compared to the best performing single classifier. The improvements were however not statistically significant at the 5% level. Although the three-model ensemble did not perform significantly better than its individual component models, we noticed that the five-model ensemble did perform significantly better than three of the five component models. A classifier ensemble might therefore be an effective strategy to improve classification performance. Another advantage is the fact that the agreement in predicted substrate class between the individual models of the ensemble could be used as a measure of confidence. We propose a simple and spatially explicit measure of confidence that is based on model agreement and prediction accuracy.

  18. Combined Bisulfite Restriction Analysis for brain tissue identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samsuwan, Jarunya; Muangsub, Tachapol; Yanatatsaneejit, Pattamawadee; Mutirangura, Apiwat; Kitkumthorn, Nakarin

    2018-05-01

    According to the tissue-specific methylation database (doi: 10.1016/j.gene.2014.09.060), methylation at CpG locus cg03096975 in EML2 has been preliminarily proven to be specific to brain tissue. In this study, we enlarged sample size and developed a technique for identifying brain tissue in aged samples. Combined Bisulfite Restriction Analysis-for EML2 (COBRA-EML2) technique was established and validated in various organ samples obtained from 108 autopsies. In addition, this technique was also tested for its reliability, minimal DNA concentration detected, and use in aged samples and in samples obtained from specific brain compartments and spinal cord. COBRA-EML2 displayed 100% sensitivity and specificity for distinguishing brain tissue from other tissues, showed high reliability, was capable of detecting minimal DNA concentration (0.015ng/μl), could be used for identifying brain tissue in aged samples. In summary, COBRA-EML2 is a technique to identify brain tissue. This analysis is useful in criminal cases since it can identify the vital organ tissues from small samples acquired from criminal scenes. The results from this analysis can be counted as a medical and forensic marker supporting criminal investigations, and as one of the evidences in court rulings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Micromechanical combined stress analysis: MICSTRAN, a user manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, R. A.

    1992-01-01

    Composite materials are currently being used in aerospace and other applications. The ability to tailor the composite properties by the appropriate selection of its constituents, the fiber and matrix, is a major advantage of composite materials. The Micromechanical Combined Stress Analysis (MICSTRAN) code provides the materials engineer with a user-friendly personal computer (PC) based tool to calculate overall composite properties given the constituent fiber and matrix properties. To assess the ability of the composite to carry structural loads, the materials engineer also needs to calculate the internal stresses in the composite material. MICSTRAN is a simple tool to calculate such internal stresses with a composite ply under combined thermomechanical loading. It assumes that the fibers have a circular cross-section and are arranged either in a repeating square or diamond array pattern within a ply. It uses a classical elasticity solution technique that has been demonstrated to calculate accurate stress results. Input to the program consists of transversely isotropic fiber properties and isotropic matrix properties such as moduli, Poisson's ratios, coefficients of thermal expansion, and volume fraction. Output consists of overall thermoelastic constants and stresses. Stresses can be computed under the combined action of thermal, transverse, longitudinal, transverse shear, and longitudinal shear loadings. Stress output can be requested along the fiber-matrix interface, the model boundaries, circular arcs, or at user-specified points located anywhere in the model. The MICSTRAN program is Windows compatible and takes advantage of the Microsoft Windows graphical user interface which facilitates multitasking and extends memory access far beyond the limits imposed by the DOS operating system.

  20. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A de Waal

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA and Bayesian networks (BN are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combining MA and BN, as two phases in a modelling process, allows us to gain the benefits of both of these methods. The strength of MA lies in defining, linking and internally evaluating the parameters of problem spaces and BN modelling allows for the definition and quantification of causal relationships between variables. Short summaries of MA and BN are provided in this paper, followed by discussions how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support.

  1. Understanding intratumor heterogeneity by combining genome analysis and mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niida, Atsushi; Nagayama, Satoshi; Miyano, Satoru; Mimori, Koshi

    2018-04-01

    Cancer is composed of multiple cell populations with different genomes. This phenomenon called intratumor heterogeneity (ITH) is supposed to be a fundamental cause of therapeutic failure. Therefore, its principle-level understanding is a clinically important issue. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary approach combining genome analysis and mathematical modeling is essential. For example, we have recently performed multiregion sequencing to unveil extensive ITH in colorectal cancer. Moreover, by employing mathematical modeling of cancer evolution, we demonstrated that it is possible that this ITH is generated by neutral evolution. In this review, we introduce recent advances in a research field related to ITH and also discuss strategies for exploiting novel findings on ITH in a clinical setting. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

  2. Economical analysis of combined fuel cell generators and absorption chillers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Morsy El-Gohary

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a co-generation system based on combined heat and power for commercial units. For installation of a co-generation system, certain estimates for this site should be performed through making assessments of electrical loads, domestic water, and thermal demand. This includes domestic hot water, selection of the type of power generator, fuel cell, and the type of air conditioning system, and absorption chillers. As a matter of fact, the co-generation system has demonstrated good results for both major aspects, economic and environmental. From the environmental point of view, this can be considered as an ideal solution for problems concerned with the usage of Chlorofluoro carbons. On the other hand, from the economic point of view, the cost analysis has revealed that the proposed system saves 4% of total cost through using the co-generation system.

  3. Investigation of fish otoliths by combined ion beam analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huszank, R.; Simon, A.; Keresztessy, K.

    2008-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows. This work was implemented within the framework of the Hungarian Ion beam Physics Platform (http://hipp.atomki.hu/). Otoliths are small structures, 'the ear stones' of a fish, and are used to detect acceleration and orientation. They are composed of a combination of protein matrix and calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) forming aragonite micro crystals. They have an annually deposited layered conformation with a microstructure corresponding to the seasonal and daily increments. Trace elements, such as Sr, Zn, Fe etc., are also incorporated into the otolith from the environment and the nutrition. The elemental distribution of the otolith of fresh water fish burbot (Lota lota L.) collected in Hungary was measured with Elastic Recoil Detection Analysis (ERDA), Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE) at the Nuclear Microprobe Facility of HAS ATOMKI. The spatial 3D structure of the otolith could be observed with a sub-micrometer resolution. It is confirmed that the aragonite micro-crystals are covered by an organic layer and there are some protein rich regions in the otolith, too. By applying the RBSMAST code developed for RBS on macroscopic structure, it was proven that the orientation of the needle shaped aragonite crystals is considerably different at adjacent locations in the otolith. The organic and inorganic component of the otolith could be set apart in the depth selective hydrogen and calcium maps derived by micro- ERDA and micro-RBS. Similar structural analysis could be done near the surface by combining the C, O and Ca elemental maps determined by micro-PIXE measurements. It was observed that the trace metal Zn is bound to the protein component. Acknowledgements This work was partially supported by the Hungarian OTKA Grant No. T046238 and the EU cofunded Economic Competitiveness Operative Programme (GVOP-3.2.1.-2004-04-0402/3.0)

  4. An automated approach to network features of protein structure ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Moitrayee; Bhat, Chanda R; Vishveshwara, Saraswathi

    2013-01-01

    Network theory applied to protein structures provides insights into numerous problems of biological relevance. The explosion in structural data available from PDB and simulations establishes a need to introduce a standalone-efficient program that assembles network concepts/parameters under one hood in an automated manner. Herein, we discuss the development/application of an exhaustive, user-friendly, standalone program package named PSN-Ensemble, which can handle structural ensembles generated through molecular dynamics (MD) simulation/NMR studies or from multiple X-ray structures. The novelty in network construction lies in the explicit consideration of side-chain interactions among amino acids. The program evaluates network parameters dealing with topological organization and long-range allosteric communication. The introduction of a flexible weighing scheme in terms of residue pairwise cross-correlation/interaction energy in PSN-Ensemble brings in dynamical/chemical knowledge into the network representation. Also, the results are mapped on a graphical display of the structure, allowing an easy access of network analysis to a general biological community. The potential of PSN-Ensemble toward examining structural ensemble is exemplified using MD trajectories of an ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (UbcH5b). Furthermore, insights derived from network parameters evaluated using PSN-Ensemble for single-static structures of active/inactive states of β2-adrenergic receptor and the ternary tRNA complexes of tyrosyl tRNA synthetases (from organisms across kingdoms) are discussed. PSN-Ensemble is freely available from http://vishgraph.mbu.iisc.ernet.in/PSN-Ensemble/psn_index.html. PMID:23934896

  5. Low-wave number analysis of observations and ensemble forecasts to develop metrics for the selection of most realistic members to study multi-scale interactions between the environment and the convective organization of hurricanes: Focus on Rapid Intensification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Chen, H.; Gopalakrishnan, S.; Haddad, Z. S.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the product of complex multi-scale processes and interactions. The role of the environment has long been recognized. However, recent research has shown that convective-scale processes in the hurricane core might also play a crucial role in determining TCs intensity and size. Several studies have linked Rapid Intensification to the characteristics of the convective clouds (shallow versus deep), their organization (isolated versus wide-spread) and their location with respect to dynamical controls (the vertical shear, the radius of maximum wind). Yet a third set of controls signifies the interaction between the storm-scale and large-scale processes. Our goal is to use observations and models to advance the still-lacking understanding of these processes. Recently, hurricane models have improved significantly. However, deterministic forecasts have limitations due to the uncertainty in the representation of the physical processes and initial conditions. A crucial step forward is the use of high-resolution ensembles. We adopt the following approach: i) generate a high resolution ensemble forecast using HWRF; ii) produce synthetic data (e.g. brightness temperature) from the model fields for direct comparison to satellite observations; iii) develop metrics to allow us to sub-select the realistic members of the ensemble, based on objective measures of the similarity between observed and forecasted structures; iv) for these most-realistic members, determine the skill in forecasting TCs to provide"guidance on guidance"; v) use the members with the best predictive skill to untangle the complex multi-scale interactions. We will report on the first three goals of our research, using forecasts and observations of hurricane Edouard (2014), focusing on RI. We will focus on describing the metrics for the selection of the most appropriate ensemble members, based on applying low-wave number analysis (WNA - Hristova-Veleva et al., 2016) to the observed and

  6. Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Chiswell, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Kurzeja, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Maze, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Viner, B. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-09-29

    Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.

  7. Regional interdependency of precipitation indices across Denmark in two ensembles of high-resolution RCMs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2013-01-01

    all these methods is that the climate models are independent. This study addresses the validity of this assumption for two ensembles of regional climate models (RCMs) from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project based on the land cells covering Denmark....... Daily precipitation indices from an ensemble of RCMs driven by the 40-yrECMWFRe-Analysis (ERA-40) and an ensemble of the same RCMs driven by different general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed. Two different methods are used to estimate the amount of independent information in the ensembles....... These are based on different statistical properties of a measure of climate model error. Additionally, a hierarchical cluster analysis is carried out. Regardless of the method used, the effective number of RCMs is smaller than the total number of RCMs. The estimated effective number of RCMs varies depending...

  8. Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallach, Daniel; Mearns, Linda O.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold

    2016-01-01

    Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.

  9. Ensemble system for Part-of-Speech tagging

    OpenAIRE

    Dell'Orletta, Felice

    2009-01-01

    The paper contains a description of the Felice-POS-Tagger and of its performance in Evalita 2009. Felice-POS-Tagger is an ensemble system that combines six different POS taggers. When evaluated on the official test set, the ensemble system outperforms each of the single tagger components and achieves the highest accuracy score in Evalita 2009 POS Closed Task. It is shown rst that the errors made from the dierent taggers are complementary, and then how to use this complementary behavior to the...

  10. Visualizing Confidence in Cluster-Based Ensemble Weather Forecast Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumpf, Alexander; Tost, Bianca; Baumgart, Marlene; Riemer, Michael; Westermann, Rudiger; Rautenhaus, Marc

    2018-01-01

    In meteorology, cluster analysis is frequently used to determine representative trends in ensemble weather predictions in a selected spatio-temporal region, e.g., to reduce a set of ensemble members to simplify and improve their analysis. Identified clusters (i.e., groups of similar members), however, can be very sensitive to small changes of the selected region, so that clustering results can be misleading and bias subsequent analyses. In this article, we - a team of visualization scientists and meteorologists-deliver visual analytics solutions to analyze the sensitivity of clustering results with respect to changes of a selected region. We propose an interactive visual interface that enables simultaneous visualization of a) the variation in composition of identified clusters (i.e., their robustness), b) the variability in cluster membership for individual ensemble members, and c) the uncertainty in the spatial locations of identified trends. We demonstrate that our solution shows meteorologists how representative a clustering result is, and with respect to which changes in the selected region it becomes unstable. Furthermore, our solution helps to identify those ensemble members which stably belong to a given cluster and can thus be considered similar. In a real-world application case we show how our approach is used to analyze the clustering behavior of different regions in a forecast of "Tropical Cyclone Karl", guiding the user towards the cluster robustness information required for subsequent ensemble analysis.

  11. Constructing Support Vector Machine Ensembles for Cancer Classification Based on Proteomic Profiling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Mao; Xiao-Bo Zhou; Dao-Ying Pi; You-Xian Sun

    2005-01-01

    In this study, we present a constructive algorithm for training cooperative support vector machine ensembles (CSVMEs). CSVME combines ensemble architecture design with cooperative training for individual SVMs in ensembles. Unlike most previous studies on training ensembles, CSVME puts emphasis on both accuracy and collaboration among individual SVMs in an ensemble. A group of SVMs selected on the basis of recursive classifier elimination is used in CSVME, and the number of the individual SVMs selected to construct CSVME is determined by 10-fold cross-validation. This kind of SVME has been tested on two ovarian cancer datasets previously obtained by proteomic mass spectrometry. By combining several individual SVMs, the proposed method achieves better performance than the SVME of all base SVMs.

  12. Analysis of the Bias on the Beidou GEO Multipath Combinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yafei; Yuan, Yunbin; Chai, Yanju; Huang, Yong

    2016-01-01

    The Beidou navigation satellite system is a very important sensor for positioning in the Asia-Pacific region. The Beidou inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) and medium Earth orbit (MEO) satellites have been analysed in some studies previously conducted by other researchers; this paper seeks to gain more insight regarding the geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites. Employing correlation analysis, Fourier transformation and wavelet decomposition, we validate whether there is a systematic bias in their multipath combinations. These biases can be observed clearly in satellites C01, C02 and C04 and have a great correlation with time series instead of elevation, being significantly different from those of the Beidou IGSO and MEO satellites. We propose a correction model to mitigate this bias based on its daily periodicity characteristic. After the model has been applied, the performance of the positioning estimations of the eight stations distributed in the Asia-Pacific region is evaluated and compared. The results show that residuals of multipath series behaves random noise; for the single point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) approaches, the positioning accuracy in the upward direction can be improved by 8 cm and 6 mm, respectively, and by 2 cm and 4 mm, respectively, for the horizontal component. PMID:27509503

  13. Energy Demand Forecasting: Combining Cointegration Analysis and Artificial Intelligence Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junbing Huang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy is vital for the sustainable development of China. Accurate forecasts of annual energy demand are essential to schedule energy supply and provide valuable suggestions for developing related industries. In the existing literature on energy use prediction, the artificial intelligence-based (AI-based model has received considerable attention. However, few econometric and statistical evidences exist that can prove the reliability of the current AI-based model, an area that still needs to be addressed. In this study, a new energy demand forecasting framework is presented at first. On the basis of historical annual data of electricity usage over the period of 1985–2015, the coefficients of linear and quadratic forms of the AI-based model are optimized by combining an adaptive genetic algorithm and a cointegration analysis shown as an example. Prediction results of the proposed model indicate that the annual growth rate of electricity demand in China will slow down. However, China will continue to demand about 13 trillion kilowatt hours in 2030 because of population growth, economic growth, and urbanization. In addition, the model has greater accuracy and reliability compared with other single optimization methods.

  14. Video stereolization: combining motion analysis with user interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Miao; Gao, Jizhou; Yang, Ruigang; Gong, Minglun

    2012-07-01

    We present a semiautomatic system that converts conventional videos into stereoscopic videos by combining motion analysis with user interaction, aiming to transfer as much as possible labeling work from the user to the computer. In addition to the widely used structure from motion (SFM) techniques, we develop two new methods that analyze the optical flow to provide additional qualitative depth constraints. They remove the camera movement restriction imposed by SFM so that general motions can be used in scene depth estimation-the central problem in mono-to-stereo conversion. With these algorithms, the user's labeling task is significantly simplified. We further developed a quadratic programming approach to incorporate both quantitative depth and qualitative depth (such as these from user scribbling) to recover dense depth maps for all frames, from which stereoscopic view can be synthesized. In addition to visual results, we present user study results showing that our approach is more intuitive and less labor intensive, while producing 3D effect comparable to that from current state-of-the-art interactive algorithms.

  15. Combined HRTEM and PEELS analysis of nanoporous and amorphous carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, J.L.; Fan, X. D.; Bursill, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    Both the mass density (1.37 kgm/m 3 ) and sp 2 +sp 3 bonding fraction (0.15) were determined for an unusual nanoporous amorphous carbon consisting of curved single graphitic sheets. A combination of high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) and parallel electron energy loss spectroscopy (PEELS) was used. The values of these two parameters provide important constraints for the determination of the structure of this relatively low density variety of nanoporous carbon. The results are relevant also in the search for negatively-curved Schwarzite-related carbon structures. New date are also presented for highly-oriented pyrollytic graphite (HOPG), chemically vapour deposited (CVD) diamond, C 60 , glassy carbon (GC) and evaporated amorphous carbon (EAC); these are compared with the results for NAC. Kramers-Kronig analysis (KKA) of the low-loss PEELS data shows that the band gaps of both NAC and EAC are collapsed relative to that of CVD diamond. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  16. Analysis of the Bias on the Beidou GEO Multipath Combinations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yafei Ning

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The Beidou navigation satellite system is a very important sensor for positioning in the Asia-Pacific region. The Beidou inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO and medium Earth orbit (MEO satellites have been analysed in some studies previously conducted by other researchers; this paper seeks to gain more insight regarding the geostationary earth orbit (GEO satellites. Employing correlation analysis, Fourier transformation and wavelet decomposition, we validate whether there is a systematic bias in their multipath combinations. These biases can be observed clearly in satellites C01, C02 and C04 and have a great correlation with time series instead of elevation, being significantly different from those of the Beidou IGSO and MEO satellites. We propose a correction model to mitigate this bias based on its daily periodicity characteristic. After the model has been applied, the performance of the positioning estimations of the eight stations distributed in the Asia-Pacific region is evaluated and compared. The results show that residuals of multipath series behaves random noise; for the single point positioning (SPP and precise point positioning (PPP approaches, the positioning accuracy in the upward direction can be improved by 8 cm and 6 mm, respectively, and by 2 cm and 4 mm, respectively, for the horizontal component.

  17. Combined HRTEM and PEELS analysis of nanoporous and amorphous carbon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, J.L.; Fan, X. D.; Bursill, L.A.

    1997-06-01

    Both the mass density (1.37 kgm/m{sup 3}) and sp{sup 2}+sp{sup 3} bonding fraction (0.15) were determined for an unusual nanoporous amorphous carbon consisting of curved single graphitic sheets. A combination of high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) and parallel electron energy loss spectroscopy (PEELS) was used. The values of these two parameters provide important constraints for the determination of the structure of this relatively low density variety of nanoporous carbon. The results are relevant also in the search for negatively-curved Schwarzite-related carbon structures. New date are also presented for highly-oriented pyrollytic graphite (HOPG), chemically vapour deposited (CVD) diamond, C{sub 60}, glassy carbon (GC) and evaporated amorphous carbon (EAC); these are compared with the results for NAC. Kramers-Kronig analysis (KKA) of the low-loss PEELS data shows that the band gaps of both NAC and EAC are collapsed relative to that of CVD diamond. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  18. Teaching Strategies for Specialized Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teaching Music, 1999

    1999-01-01

    Provides a strategy, from the book "Strategies for Teaching Specialized Ensembles," that addresses Standard 9A of the National Standards for Music Education. Explains that students will identify and describe the musical and historical characteristics of the classical era in music they perform and in audio examples. (CMK)

  19. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold

    2015-01-01

    , but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24...

  20. Spectral Diagonal Ensemble Kalman Filters

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kasanický, Ivan; Mandel, Jan; Vejmelka, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 4 (2015), s. 485-497 ISSN 1023-5809 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S Grant - others:NSF(US) DMS-1216481 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : data assimilation * ensemble Kalman filter * spectral representation Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.321, year: 2015

  1. Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Marquardt algorithm by varying conditions such as inputs, hidden neurons, initialization, training sets and random Gaussian noise injection to ... Several such ensembles formed the population which was evolved to generate the fittest ensemble.

  2. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  3. Localization of atomic ensembles via superfluorescence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macovei, Mihai; Evers, Joerg; Keitel, Christoph H.; Zubairy, M. Suhail

    2007-01-01

    The subwavelength localization of an ensemble of atoms concentrated to a small volume in space is investigated. The localization relies on the interaction of the ensemble with a standing wave laser field. The light scattered in the interaction of the standing wave field and the atom ensemble depends on the position of the ensemble relative to the standing wave nodes. This relation can be described by a fluorescence intensity profile, which depends on the standing wave field parameters and the ensemble properties and which is modified due to collective effects in the ensemble of nearby particles. We demonstrate that the intensity profile can be tailored to suit different localization setups. Finally, we apply these results to two localization schemes. First, we show how to localize an ensemble fixed at a certain position in the standing wave field. Second, we discuss localization of an ensemble passing through the standing wave field

  4. Statistical ensembles and molecular dynamics studies of anisotropic solids. II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ray, J.R.; Rahman, A.

    1985-01-01

    We have recently discussed how the Parrinello--Rahman theory can be brought into accord with the theory of the elastic and thermodynamic behavior of anisotropic media. This involves the isoenthalpic--isotension ensemble of statistical mechanics. Nose has developed a canonical ensemble form of molecular dynamics. We combine Nose's ideas with the Parrinello--Rahman theory to obtain a canonical form of molecular dynamics appropriate to the study of anisotropic media subjected to arbitrary external stress. We employ this isothermal--isotension ensemble in a study of a fcc→ close-packed structural phase transformation in a Lennard-Jones solid subjected to uniaxial compression. Our interpretation of the Nose theory does not involve a scaling of the time variable. This latter fact leads to simplifications when studying the time dependence of quantities

  5. Visualization and classification of physiological failure modes in ensemble hemorrhage simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Song; Pruett, William Andrew; Hester, Robert

    2015-01-01

    In an emergency situation such as hemorrhage, doctors need to predict which patients need immediate treatment and care. This task is difficult because of the diverse response to hemorrhage in human population. Ensemble physiological simulations provide a means to sample a diverse range of subjects and may have a better chance of containing the correct solution. However, to reveal the patterns and trends from the ensemble simulation is a challenging task. We have developed a visualization framework for ensemble physiological simulations. The visualization helps users identify trends among ensemble members, classify ensemble member into subpopulations for analysis, and provide prediction to future events by matching a new patient's data to existing ensembles. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the visualization on simulated physiological data. The lessons learned here can be applied to clinically-collected physiological data in the future.

  6. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    either an intermediate forecast between the extremes of the ensemble spread or a manually selected forecast based on a meteorologists advice. 2. Downstream catchments with low influence of weather forecast In downstream catchments with strong human impact on discharge (e.g. by reservoir operation) and large influence of upstream gauge observation quality on forecast quality, the 'overall error' may in most cases be larger than the combination of the 'model error' and an ensemble spread. Therefore, the overall forecast uncertainty bounds are calculated differently: a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. Here, additionally the corresponding inflow hydrograph from all upstream catchments must be used. b) As for an upstream catchment, the uncertainty range is determined by combination of 'model error' and the ensemble member forecasts c) In addition, the 'overall error' is superimposed on the 'lead forecast'. For reasons of consistency, the lead forecast must be based on the same meteorological forecast in the downstream and all upstream catchments. d) From the resulting two uncertainty ranges (one from the ensemble forecast and 'model error', one from the 'lead forecast' and 'overall error'), the envelope is taken as the most prudent uncertainty range. In sum, the uncertainty associated with each forecast run is calculated and communicated to the public in the form of 10% and 90% percentiles. As in part I of this study, the methodology as well as the useful- or uselessness of the resulting uncertainty ranges will be presented and discussed by typical examples.

  7. Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zied Ben Bouallègue

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available COSMO-DE-EPS, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE, is pre-operational since December 2010, providing probabilistic forecasts which cover Germany. This ensemble system comprises 20 members based on variations of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics parameterizations and the initial conditions. In order to increase the sample size in a computationally inexpensive way, COSMO-DE-EPS is combined with alternative ensemble techniques: the neighborhood method and the time-lagged approach. Their impact on the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts is assessed. Objective verification is performed over a six months period, scores based on the Brier score and its decomposition are shown for June 2011. The combination of the ensemble system with the alternative approaches improves probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in particular for high precipitation thresholds. Moreover, combining COSMO-DE-EPS with only the time-lagged approach improves the skill of area probabilities for precipitation and does not deteriorate the skill of 2 m-temperature and wind gusts forecasts.

  8. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, X.

    2012-10-03

    Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.

  9. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Luo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF by (in effect adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.

  10. Learning Outlier Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Micenková, Barbora; McWilliams, Brian; Assent, Ira

    into the existing unsupervised algorithms. In this paper, we show how to use powerful machine learning approaches to combine labeled examples together with arbitrary unsupervised outlier scoring algorithms. We aim to get the best out of the two worlds—supervised and unsupervised. Our approach is also a viable......Years of research in unsupervised outlier detection have produced numerous algorithms to score data according to their exceptionality. wever, the nature of outliers heavily depends on the application context and different algorithms are sensitive to outliers of different nature. This makes it very...... difficult to assess suitability of a particular algorithm without a priori knowledge. On the other hand, in many applications, some examples of outliers exist or can be obtain edin addition to the vast amount of unlabeled data. Unfortunately, this extra knowledge cannot be simply incorporated...

  11. Ensemble Kalman filtering with one-step-ahead smoothing

    KAUST Repository

    Raboudi, Naila F.

    2018-01-11

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used for sequential data assimilation. It operates as a succession of forecast and analysis steps. In realistic large-scale applications, EnKFs are implemented with small ensembles and poorly known model error statistics. This limits their representativeness of the background error covariances and, thus, their performance. This work explores the efficiency of the one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the Bayesian filtering problem to enhance the data assimilation performance of EnKFs. Filtering with OSA smoothing introduces an updated step with future observations, conditioning the ensemble sampling with more information. This should provide an improved background ensemble in the analysis step, which may help to mitigate the suboptimal character of EnKF-based methods. Here, the authors demonstrate the efficiency of a stochastic EnKF with OSA smoothing for state estimation. They then introduce a deterministic-like EnKF-OSA based on the singular evolutive interpolated ensemble Kalman (SEIK) filter. The authors show that the proposed SEIK-OSA outperforms both SEIK, as it efficiently exploits the data twice, and the stochastic EnKF-OSA, as it avoids observational error undersampling. They present extensive assimilation results from numerical experiments conducted with the Lorenz-96 model to demonstrate SEIK-OSA’s capabilities.

  12. Ensembl Genomes 2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kersey, Paul Julian; Allen, James E; Christensen, Mikkel

    2014-01-01

    , and provides a complementary set of resources for non-vertebrate species through a consistent set of programmatic and interactive interfaces. These provide access to data including reference sequence, gene models, transcriptional data, polymorphisms and comparative analysis. This article provides an update...

  13. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  14. Constraining the ensemble Kalman filter for improved streamflow forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Deborah H.; Jackson, Bethanna M.; McGregor, James

    2018-05-01

    Data assimilation techniques such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are often applied to hydrological models with minimal state volume/capacity constraints enforced during ensemble generation. Flux constraints are rarely, if ever, applied. Consequently, model states can be adjusted beyond physically reasonable limits, compromising the integrity of model output. In this paper, we investigate the effect of constraining the EnKF on forecast performance. A "free run" in which no assimilation is applied is compared to a completely unconstrained EnKF implementation, a 'typical' hydrological implementation (in which mass constraints are enforced to ensure non-negativity and capacity thresholds of model states are not exceeded), and then to a more tightly constrained implementation where flux as well as mass constraints are imposed to force the rate of water movement to/from ensemble states to be within physically consistent boundaries. A three year period (2008-2010) was selected from the available data record (1976-2010). This was specifically chosen as it had no significant data gaps and represented well the range of flows observed in the longer dataset. Over this period, the standard implementation of the EnKF (no constraints) contained eight hydrological events where (multiple) physically inconsistent state adjustments were made. All were selected for analysis. Mass constraints alone did little to improve forecast performance; in fact, several were significantly degraded compared to the free run. In contrast, the combined use of mass and flux constraints significantly improved forecast performance in six events relative to all other implementations, while the remaining two events showed no significant difference in performance. Placing flux as well as mass constraints on the data assimilation framework encourages physically consistent state estimation and results in more accurate and reliable forward predictions of streamflow for robust decision-making. We also

  15. Cluster Ensemble-Based Image Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoru Wang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Image segmentation is the foundation of computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a new cluster ensemble-based image segmentation algorithm, which overcomes several problems of traditional methods. We make two main contributions in this paper. First, we introduce the cluster ensemble concept to fuse the segmentation results from different types of visual features effectively, which can deliver a better final result and achieve a much more stable performance for broad categories of images. Second, we exploit the PageRank idea from Internet applications and apply it to the image segmentation task. This can improve the final segmentation results by combining the spatial information of the image and the semantic similarity of regions. Our experiments on four public image databases validate the superiority of our algorithm over conventional single type of feature or multiple types of features-based algorithms, since our algorithm can fuse multiple types of features effectively for better segmentation results. Moreover, our method is also proved to be very competitive in comparison with other state-of-the-art segmentation algorithms.

  16. Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater

  17. Assessment of ENSEMBLES regional climate models for the representation of monthly wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea (Greece): Mean and extremes analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Tolika, Konstantia; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Velikou, Kondylia; Vagenas, Christos

    2013-04-01

    The main scope of the present study is the assessment of the ability of three of the most updated regional climate models, developed under the frame of the European research project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/), to simulate the wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea in Greece. The examined models are KNMI-RACMO2, MPI-MREMO, and ICTP - RegCM3. They all have the same spatial resolution (25x25km) and for their future projections they are using the A1B SRES emission scenarios. Their simulated wind data (speed and direction) were compared with observational data from several stations over the domain of study for a time period of 25 years, from 1980 to 2004 on a monthly basis. The primer data were available every three or six hours from which we computed the mean daily wind speed and the prevailing daily wind direction. It should be mentioned, that the comparison was made for the grid point that was the closest to each station over land. Moreover, the extreme speed values were also calculated both for the observational and the simulated data, in order to assess the ability of the models in capturing the most intense wind conditions. The first results of the study showed that the prevailing winds during the winter and spring months have a north - northeastern or a south - south western direction in most parts of the Aegean sea. The models under examination seem to capture quite satisfactorily this pattern as well as the general characteristics of the winds in this area. During summer, winds in the Aegean Sea have mainly north direction and the models have quite good agreement both in simulating this direction and the wind speed. Concerning the extreme wind speed (percentiles) it was found that for the stations in the northern Aegean all the models overestimate the extreme wind indices. For the eastern parts of the Aegean the KNMI and the MPI model underestimate the extreme wind speeds while on the other hand the ICTP model overestimates them. Finally for the

  18. Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

  19. Using histograms to introduce randomization in the generation of ensembles of decision trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick; Littau, David

    2005-02-22

    A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to create a histogram, a module to evaluate a potential split according to some criterion using the histogram, a module to select a split point randomly in an interval around the best split, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method includes the steps of reading the data; creating a histogram; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using the histogram, selecting a split point randomly in an interval around the best split, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

  20. Eigenfunction statistics of Wishart Brownian ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Pragya

    2017-01-01

    We theoretically analyze the eigenfunction fluctuation measures for a Hermitian ensemble which appears as an intermediate state of the perturbation of a stationary ensemble by another stationary ensemble of Wishart (Laguerre) type. Similar to the perturbation by a Gaussian stationary ensemble, the measures undergo a diffusive dynamics in terms of the perturbation parameter but the energy-dependence of the fluctuations is different in the two cases. This may have important consequences for the eigenfunction dynamics as well as phase transition studies in many areas of complexity where Brownian ensembles appear. (paper)

  1. Exergy analysis, parametric analysis and optimization for a novel combined power and ejector refrigeration cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai Yiping; Wang Jiangfeng; Gao Lin

    2009-01-01

    A new combined power and refrigeration cycle is proposed, which combines the Rankine cycle and the ejector refrigeration cycle. This combined cycle produces both power output and refrigeration output simultaneously. It can be driven by the flue gas of gas turbine or engine, solar energy, geothermal energy and industrial waste heats. An exergy analysis is performed to guide the thermodynamic improvement for this cycle. And a parametric analysis is conducted to evaluate the effects of the key thermodynamic parameters on the performance of the combined cycle. In addition, a parameter optimization is achieved by means of genetic algorithm to reach the maximum exergy efficiency. The results show that the biggest exergy loss due to the irreversibility occurs in heat addition processes, and the ejector causes the next largest exergy loss. It is also shown that the turbine inlet pressure, the turbine back pressure, the condenser temperature and the evaporator temperature have significant effects on the turbine power output, refrigeration output and exergy efficiency of the combined cycle. The optimized exergy efficiency is 27.10% under the given condition.

  2. Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Guo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960–2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD. Obvious non-linear upward trends in precipitation were found in the north, south, east and the entire Xinjiang. Changes in precipitation in Xinjiang exhibited significant inter-annual scale (quasi-2 and quasi-6 years and inter-decadal scale (quasi-12 and quasi-23 years. Moreover, the 2–3-year quasi-periodic fluctuation was dominant in regional precipitation and the inter-annual variation had a considerable effect on the regional-scale precipitation variation in Xinjiang. We also found that there were distinctive spatial differences in variation trends and turning points of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results of this study indicated that compared to traditional decomposition methods, the EEMD method, without using any a priori determined basis functions, could effectively extract the reliable multi-scale fluctuations and reveal the intrinsic oscillation properties of climate elements.

  3. Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Bin; Chen, Zhongsheng; Guo, Jinyun; Liu, Feng; Chen, Chuanfa; Liu, Kangli

    2016-03-21

    Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960-2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Obvious non-linear upward trends in precipitation were found in the north, south, east and the entire Xinjiang. Changes in precipitation in Xinjiang exhibited significant inter-annual scale (quasi-2 and quasi-6 years) and inter-decadal scale (quasi-12 and quasi-23 years). Moreover, the 2-3-year quasi-periodic fluctuation was dominant in regional precipitation and the inter-annual variation had a considerable effect on the regional-scale precipitation variation in Xinjiang. We also found that there were distinctive spatial differences in variation trends and turning points of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results of this study indicated that compared to traditional decomposition methods, the EEMD method, without using any a priori determined basis functions, could effectively extract the reliable multi-scale fluctuations and reveal the intrinsic oscillation properties of climate elements.

  4. Data driven computing by the morphing fast Fourier transform ensemble Kalman filter in epidemic spread simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, Jan; Beezley, Jonathan D.; Cobb, Loren; Krishnamurthy, Ashok

    2010-01-01

    The FFT EnKF data assimilation method is proposed and applied to a stochastic cell simulation of an epidemic, based on the S-I-R spread model. The FFT EnKF combines spatial statistics and ensemble filtering methodologies into a localized and computationally inexpensive version of EnKF with a very small ensemble, and it is further combined with the morphing EnKF to assimilate changes in the position of the epidemic. PMID:21031155

  5. Alternate modal combination methods in response spectrum analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.K.; Bezler, P.

    1989-01-01

    In piping analyses using the response spectrum method Square Root of the Sum of the Squares (SRSS) with clustering between closely spaced modes is the combination procedure most commonly used to combine between the modal response components. This procedure is simple to apply and normally yields conservative estimates of the time history results. The purpose of this study is to investigate alternate methods to combine between the modal response components. These methods are mathematically based to properly account for the combination between rigid and flexible modal responses as well as closely spaced modes. The methods are those advanced by Gupta, Hadjian and Lindley-Yow to address rigid response modes and the Double Sum Combination (DSC) method and the Complete Quadratic Combination (CQC) method to account for closely spaced modes. A direct comparison between these methods as well as the SRSS procedure is made by using them to predict the response of six piping systems. For two piping systems thirty-three earthquake records were considered to account for the impact of variations in the characteristics of the excitation. The results provided by each method are compared to the corresponding time history estimates of results as well as to each other. The degree of conservatism associated with each method is characterized. 7 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  6. Alternate modal combination methods in response spectrum analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bezler, P.; Curreri, J.R.; Wang, Y.K.; Gupta, A.K.

    1990-10-01

    In piping analyses using the response spectrum method Square Root of the Sum of the Squares (SRSS) with clustering between closely spaced modes is the combination procedure most commonly used to combine between the modal response components. This procedure is simple to apply and normally yields conservative estimates of the time history results. The purpose of this study is to investigate alternate methods to combine between the modal response components. These methods are mathematically based to properly account for the combination between rigid and flexible modal responses as well as closely spaced modes. The methods are those advanced by Gupta, Hadjian and Lindely-Yow to address rigid response modes and the Double Sum Combination (DSC) method and the Complete Quadratic Combination (CQC) method to account for closely spaced modes. A direct comparison between these methods as well as the SRSS procedure is made by using them to predict the response of six piping systems. The results provided by each method are compared to the corresponding time history estimates of results as well as to each other. The degree of conservatism associated with each method is characterized. 19 refs., 16 figs., 10 tabs

  7. Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics ensemble method

    CERN Document Server

    Eu, Byung Chan

    1998-01-01

    In this monograph, nonequilibrium statistical mechanics is developed by means of ensemble methods on the basis of the Boltzmann equation, the generic Boltzmann equations for classical and quantum dilute gases, and a generalised Boltzmann equation for dense simple fluids The theories are developed in forms parallel with the equilibrium Gibbs ensemble theory in a way fully consistent with the laws of thermodynamics The generalised hydrodynamics equations are the integral part of the theory and describe the evolution of macroscopic processes in accordance with the laws of thermodynamics of systems far removed from equilibrium Audience This book will be of interest to researchers in the fields of statistical mechanics, condensed matter physics, gas dynamics, fluid dynamics, rheology, irreversible thermodynamics and nonequilibrium phenomena

  8. THREAT ENSEMBLE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    software and manual TEVA-SPOT is used by water utilities to optimize the number and location of contamination detection sensors so that economic and/or public health consequences are minimized. TEVA-SPOT is interactive, allowing a user to specify the minimization objective (e.g., the number of people exposed, the time to detection, or the extent of pipe length contaminated). It also allows a user to specify constraints. For example, a TEVA-SPOT user can employ expert knowledge during the design process by identifying either existing or unfeasible sensor locations. Installation and maintenance costs for sensor placement can also be factored into the analysis. Python and Java are required to run TEVA-SPOT

  9. Exploring diversity in ensemble classification: Applications in large area land cover mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Andrew; Boukir, Samia

    2017-07-01

    Ensemble classifiers, such as random forests, are now commonly applied in the field of remote sensing, and have been shown to perform better than single classifier systems, resulting in reduced generalisation error. Diversity across the members of ensemble classifiers is known to have a strong influence on classification performance - whereby classifier errors are uncorrelated and more uniformly distributed across ensemble members. The relationship between ensemble diversity and classification performance has not yet been fully explored in the fields of information science and machine learning and has never been examined in the field of remote sensing. This study is a novel exploration of ensemble diversity and its link to classification performance, applied to a multi-class canopy cover classification problem using random forests and multisource remote sensing and ancillary GIS data, across seven million hectares of diverse dry-sclerophyll dominated public forests in Victoria Australia. A particular emphasis is placed on analysing the relationship between ensemble diversity and ensemble margin - two key concepts in ensemble learning. The main novelty of our work is on boosting diversity by emphasizing the contribution of lower margin instances used in the learning process. Exploring the influence of tree pruning on diversity is also a new empirical analysis that contributes to a better understanding of ensemble performance. Results reveal insights into the trade-off between ensemble classification accuracy and diversity, and through the ensemble margin, demonstrate how inducing diversity by targeting lower margin training samples is a means of achieving better classifier performance for more difficult or rarer classes and reducing information redundancy in classification problems. Our findings inform strategies for collecting training data and designing and parameterising ensemble classifiers, such as random forests. This is particularly important in large area

  10. Sub-Ensemble Coastal Flood Forecasting: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin A. Schulte

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, it is proposed that coastal flood ensemble forecasts be partitioned into sub-ensemble forecasts using cluster analysis in order to produce representative statistics and to measure forecast uncertainty arising from the presence of clusters. After clustering the ensemble members, the ability to predict the cluster into which the observation will fall can be measured using a cluster skill score. Additional sub-ensemble and composite skill scores are proposed for assessing the forecast skill of a clustered ensemble forecast. A recently proposed method for statistically increasing the number of ensemble members is used to improve sub-ensemble probabilistic estimates. Through the application of the proposed methodology to Sandy coastal flood reforecasts, it is demonstrated that statistics computed using only ensemble members belonging to a specific cluster are more representative than those computed using all ensemble members simultaneously. A cluster skill-cluster uncertainty index relationship is identified, which is the cluster analog of the documented spread-skill relationship. Two sub-ensemble skill scores are shown to be positively correlated with cluster forecast skill, suggesting that skillfully forecasting the cluster into which the observation will fall is important to overall forecast skill. The identified relationships also suggest that the number of ensemble members within in each cluster can be used as guidance for assessing the potential for forecast error. The inevitable existence of ensemble member clusters in tidally dominated total water level prediction systems suggests that clustering is a necessary post-processing step for producing representative and skillful total water level forecasts.

  11. Multimodel hydrological ensemble forecasts for the Baskatong catchment in Canada using the TIGGE database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tito Arandia Martinez, Fabian

    2014-05-01

    Adequate uncertainty assessment is an important issue in hydrological modelling. An important issue for hydropower producers is to obtain ensemble forecasts which truly grasp the uncertainty linked to upcoming streamflows. If properly assessed, this uncertainty can lead to optimal reservoir management and energy production (ex. [1]). The meteorological inputs to the hydrological model accounts for an important part of the total uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Since the creation of the THORPEX initiative and the TIGGE database, access to meteorological ensemble forecasts from nine agencies throughout the world have been made available. This allows for hydrological ensemble forecasts based on multiple meteorological ensemble forecasts. Consequently, both the uncertainty linked to the architecture of the meteorological model and the uncertainty linked to the initial condition of the atmosphere can be accounted for. The main objective of this work is to show that a weighted combination of meteorological ensemble forecasts based on different atmospheric models can lead to improved hydrological ensemble forecasts, for horizons from one to ten days. This experiment is performed for the Baskatong watershed, a head subcatchment of the Gatineau watershed in the province of Quebec, in Canada. Baskatong watershed is of great importance for hydro-power production, as it comprises the main reservoir for the Gatineau watershed, on which there are six hydropower plants managed by Hydro-Québec. Since the 70's, they have been using pseudo ensemble forecast based on deterministic meteorological forecasts to which variability derived from past forecasting errors is added. We use a combination of meteorological ensemble forecasts from different models (precipitation and temperature) as the main inputs for hydrological model HSAMI ([2]). The meteorological ensembles from eight of the nine agencies available through TIGGE are weighted according to their individual performance and

  12. Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M

    2014-12-01

    In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.

  13. An Adaptive Approach to Mitigate Background Covariance Limitations in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    KAUST Repository

    Song, Hajoon

    2010-07-01

    A new approach is proposed to address the background covariance limitations arising from undersampled ensembles and unaccounted model errors in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The method enhances the representativeness of the EnKF ensemble by augmenting it with new members chosen adaptively to add missing information that prevents the EnKF from fully fitting the data to the ensemble. The vectors to be added are obtained by back projecting the residuals of the observation misfits from the EnKF analysis step onto the state space. The back projection is done using an optimal interpolation (OI) scheme based on an estimated covariance of the subspace missing from the ensemble. In the experiments reported here, the OI uses a preselected stationary background covariance matrix, as in the hybrid EnKF–three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) approach, but the resulting correction is included as a new ensemble member instead of being added to all existing ensemble members. The adaptive approach is tested with the Lorenz-96 model. The hybrid EnKF–3DVAR is used as a benchmark to evaluate the performance of the adaptive approach. Assimilation experiments suggest that the new adaptive scheme significantly improves the EnKF behavior when it suffers from small size ensembles and neglected model errors. It was further found to be competitive with the hybrid EnKF–3DVAR approach, depending on ensemble size and data coverage.

  14. Spatio-temporal behaviour of medium-range ensemble forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipling, Zak; Primo, Cristina; Charlton-Perez, Andrew

    2010-05-01

    Using the recently-developed mean-variance of logarithms (MVL) diagram, together with the TIGGE archive of medium-range ensemble forecasts from nine different centres, we present an analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics of their perturbations, and show how the differences between models and perturbation techniques can explain the shape of their characteristic MVL curves. We also consider the use of the MVL diagram to compare the growth of perturbations within the ensemble with the growth of the forecast error, showing that there is a much closer correspondence for some models than others. We conclude by looking at how the MVL technique might assist in selecting models for inclusion in a multi-model ensemble, and suggest an experiment to test its potential in this context.

  15. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in Korea: Past and Future 5 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, D.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.

    2005-05-01

    The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach was first introduced in 2000 by the Hydrology Research Group (HRG) at Seoul National University as an alternative probabilistic forecasting technique for improving the 'Water Supply Outlook' That is issued every month by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation in Korea. That study motivated the Korea Water Resources Corporation (KOWACO) to establish their seasonal probabilistic forecasting system for the 5 major river basins using the ESP approach. In cooperation with the HRG, the KOWACO developed monthly optimal multi-reservoir operating systems for the Geum river basin in 2004, which coupled the ESP forecasts with an optimization model using sampling stochastic dynamic programming. The user interfaces for both ESP and SSDP have also been designed for the developed computer systems to become more practical. More projects for developing ESP systems to the other 3 major river basins (i.e. the Nakdong, Han and Seomjin river basins) was also completed by the HRG and KOWACO at the end of December 2004. Therefore, the ESP system has become the most important mid- and long-term streamflow forecast technique in Korea. In addition to the practical aspects, resent research experience on ESP has raised some concerns into ways of improving the accuracy of ESP in Korea. Jeong and Kim (2002) performed an error analysis on its resulting probabilistic forecasts and found that the modeling error is dominant in the dry season, while the meteorological error is dominant in the flood season. To address the first issue, Kim et al. (2004) tested various combinations and/or combining techniques and showed that the ESP probabilistic accuracy could be improved considerably during the dry season when the hydrologic models were combined and/or corrected. In addition, an attempt was also made to improve the ESP accuracy for the flood season using climate forecast information. This ongoing project handles three types of climate

  16. Microscopes and computers combined for analysis of chromosomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, J. W.; Butler, M. K.; Stroud, A. N.

    1969-01-01

    Scanning machine CHLOE, developed for photographic use, is combined with a digital computer to obtain quantitative and statistically significant data on chromosome shapes, distribution, density, and pairing. CHLOE permits data acquisition about a chromosome complement to be obtained two times faster than by manual pairing.

  17. Analysis of induction machines with combined stator windings

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schreier, Luděk; Bendl, Jiří; Chomát, Miroslav

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2015), s. 155-171 ISSN 0001-7043 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-35370S Institutional support: RVO:61388998 Keywords : induction machines * symmetrical components * combined stator winding Subject RIV: JA - Electronics ; Optoelectronics, Electrical Engineering

  18. Repeater Analysis for Combining Information from Different Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberman, Shelby; Yao, Lili

    2015-01-01

    Admission decisions frequently rely on multiple assessments. As a consequence, it is important to explore rational approaches to combine the information from different educational tests. For example, U.S. graduate schools usually receive both TOEFL iBT® scores and GRE® General scores of foreign applicants for admission; however, little guidance…

  19. Light localization in cold and dense atomic ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sokolov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    We report on results of theoretical analysis of possibilities of light strong (Anderson) localization in a cold atomic ensemble. We predict appearance of localization in dense atomic systems in strong magnetic field. We prove that in absence of the field the light localization is impossible. (paper)

  20. ApkCombiner: Combining Multiple Android Apps to Support Inter-App Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Li , Li; Bartel , Alexandre; Bissyandé , Tegawendé ,; Klein , Jacques; Traon , Yves ,

    2015-01-01

    Part 8: Mobile and Cloud Services Security; International audience; Android apps are made of components which can leak information between one another using the ICC mechanism. With the growing momentum of Android, a number of research contributions have led to tools for the intra-app analysis of Android apps. Unfortunately, these state-of-the-art approaches, and the associated tools, have long left out the security flaws that arise across the boundaries of single apps, in the interaction betw...

  1. A hybrid nudging-ensemble Kalman filter approach to data assimilation. Part I: application in the Lorenz system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Lei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid data assimilation approach combining nudging and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF for dynamic analysis and numerical weather prediction is explored here using the non-linear Lorenz three-variable model system with the goal of a smooth, continuous and accurate data assimilation. The hybrid nudging-EnKF (HNEnKF computes the hybrid nudging coefficients from the flow-dependent, time-varying error covariance matrix from the EnKF's ensemble forecasts. It extends the standard diagonal nudging terms to additional off-diagonal statistical correlation terms for greater inter-variable influence of the innovations in the model's predictive equations to assist in the data assimilation process. The HNEnKF promotes a better fit of an analysis to data compared to that achieved by either nudging or incremental analysis update (IAU. When model error is introduced, it produces similar or better root mean square errors compared to the EnKF while minimising the error spikes/discontinuities created by the intermittent EnKF. It provides a continuous data assimilation with better inter-variable consistency and improved temporal smoothness than that of the EnKF. Data assimilation experiments are also compared to the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS. The HNEnKF has similar or better temporal smoothness than that of the EnKS, and with much smaller central processing unit (CPU time and data storage requirements.

  2. Combining Formal Logic and Machine Learning for Sentiment Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Niklas Christoffer; Villadsen, Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a formal logical method for deep structural analysis of the syntactical properties of texts using machine learning techniques for efficient syntactical tagging. To evaluate the method it is used for entity level sentiment analysis as an alternative to pure machine learning...

  3. Inserting Stress Analysis of Combined Hexagonal Aluminum Honeycombs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangcheng Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Two kinds of hexagonal aluminum honeycombs are tested to study their out-of-plane crushing behavior. In the tests, honeycomb samples, including single hexagonal aluminum honeycomb (SHAH samples and two stack-up combined hexagonal aluminum honeycombs (CHAH samples, are compressed at a fixed quasistatic loading rate. The results show that the inserting process of CHAH can erase the initial peak stress that occurred in SHAH. Meanwhile, energy-absorbing property of combined honeycomb samples is more beneficial than the one of single honeycomb sample with the same thickness if the two types of honeycomb samples are completely crushed. Then, the applicability of the existing theoretical model for single hexagonal honeycomb is discussed, and an area equivalent method is proposed to calculate the crushing stress for nearly regular hexagonal honeycombs. Furthermore, a semiempirical formula is proposed to calculate the inserting plateau stress of two stack-up CHAH, in which structural parameters and mechanics properties of base material are concerned. The results show that the predicted stresses of three kinds of two stack-up combined honeycombs are in good agreement with the experimental data. Based on this study, stress-displacement curve of aluminum honeycombs can be designed in detail, which is very beneficial to optimize the energy-absorbing structures in engineering fields.

  4. Harmony Search Based Parameter Ensemble Adaptation for Differential Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rammohan Mallipeddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In differential evolution (DE algorithm, depending on the characteristics of the problem at hand and the available computational resources, different strategies combined with a different set of parameters may be effective. In addition, a single, well-tuned combination of strategies and parameters may not guarantee optimal performance because different strategies combined with different parameter settings can be appropriate during different stages of the evolution. Therefore, various adaptive/self-adaptive techniques have been proposed to adapt the DE strategies and parameters during the course of evolution. In this paper, we propose a new parameter adaptation technique for DE based on ensemble approach and harmony search algorithm (HS. In the proposed method, an ensemble of parameters is randomly sampled which form the initial harmony memory. The parameter ensemble evolves during the course of the optimization process by HS algorithm. Each parameter combination in the harmony memory is evaluated by testing them on the DE population. The performance of the proposed adaptation method is evaluated using two recently proposed strategies (DE/current-to-pbest/bin and DE/current-to-gr_best/bin as basic DE frameworks. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptation technique compared to the state-of-the-art DE based algorithms on a set of challenging test problems (CEC 2005.

  5. A Thermorisk framework for the analysis of energy systems by combining risk and exergy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassetti, G.; Colombo, E.; Zio, E.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems is presented. • The relation between thermodynamic parameters and the safety characteristics is identified. • Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system. - Abstract: The impact of energy production, transformation and use on the environmental resources encourage to understand the mechanisms of resource degradation and to develop proper analyses to reduce the impact of the energy systems on the environment. At the technical level, most attempts for reducing the environmental impact of energy systems focus on the improvement of process efficiency. One way toward an integrated approach is that of adopting exergy analysis for assessing efficiency and test improving design and operation solutions. The paper presents an exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems, named Thermorisk analysis. The purpose of the Thermorisk analysis is to supply information to control, and eventually reduce, the risk of the systems (i.e. risk of accidents) by acting on the thermodynamic parameters and safety characteristics in the same frame. The proper combination of exergy and risk analysis allows monitoring the effects of efficiency improvement on the safety of the systems analyzed. A case study is presented, showing the potential of the analysis to identify the relation between the exergy efficiency and the risk of the system analyzed, and the contribution of inefficiencies on the safety of the process. Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system.

  6. Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Bo

    2015-11-11

    We consider the Bayesian filtering problem for data assimilation following the kernel-based ensemble Gaussian-mixture filtering (EnGMF) approach introduced by Anderson and Anderson (1999). In this approach, the posterior distribution of the system state is propagated with the model using the ensemble Monte Carlo method, providing a forecast ensemble that is then used to construct a prior Gaussian-mixture (GM) based on the kernel density estimator. This results in two update steps: a Kalman filter (KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence of the bandwidth parameter of the kernel function on the covariance of the posterior distribution. We then focus on two aspects: i) the efficient implementation of EnGMF with (relatively) small ensembles, where we propose a new deterministic resampling strategy preserving the first two moments of the posterior GM to limit the sampling error; and ii) the analysis of the effect of the bandwidth parameter on contributions of KF and PF updates and on the weights variance. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model are presented to assess the behavior of EnGMF with deterministic resampling, study its sensitivity to different parameters and settings, and evaluate its performance against ensemble KFs. The proposed EnGMF approach with deterministic resampling suggests improved estimates in all tested scenarios, and is shown to require less localization and to be less sensitive to the choice of filtering parameters.

  7. Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Divina

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

  8. Exploiting ensemble learning for automatic cataract detection and grading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ji-Jiang; Li, Jianqiang; Shen, Ruifang; Zeng, Yang; He, Jian; Bi, Jing; Li, Yong; Zhang, Qinyan; Peng, Lihui; Wang, Qing

    2016-02-01

    Cataract is defined as a lenticular opacity presenting usually with poor visual acuity. It is one of the most common causes of visual impairment worldwide. Early diagnosis demands the expertise of trained healthcare professionals, which may present a barrier to early intervention due to underlying costs. To date, studies reported in the literature utilize a single learning model for retinal image classification in grading cataract severity. We present an ensemble learning based approach as a means to improving diagnostic accuracy. Three independent feature sets, i.e., wavelet-, sketch-, and texture-based features, are extracted from each fundus image. For each feature set, two base learning models, i.e., Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network, are built. Then, the ensemble methods, majority voting and stacking, are investigated to combine the multiple base learning models for final fundus image classification. Empirical experiments are conducted for cataract detection (two-class task, i.e., cataract or non-cataractous) and cataract grading (four-class task, i.e., non-cataractous, mild, moderate or severe) tasks. The best performance of the ensemble classifier is 93.2% and 84.5% in terms of the correct classification rates for cataract detection and grading tasks, respectively. The results demonstrate that the ensemble classifier outperforms the single learning model significantly, which also illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

  10. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, AJ

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating...

  11. Combined process automation for large-scale EEG analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sfondouris, John L; Quebedeaux, Tabitha M; Holdgraf, Chris; Musto, Alberto E

    2012-01-01

    Epileptogenesis is a dynamic process producing increased seizure susceptibility. Electroencephalography (EEG) data provides information critical in understanding the evolution of epileptiform changes throughout epileptic foci. We designed an algorithm to facilitate efficient large-scale EEG analysis via linked automation of multiple data processing steps. Using EEG recordings obtained from electrical stimulation studies, the following steps of EEG analysis were automated: (1) alignment and isolation of pre- and post-stimulation intervals, (2) generation of user-defined band frequency waveforms, (3) spike-sorting, (4) quantification of spike and burst data and (5) power spectral density analysis. This algorithm allows for quicker, more efficient EEG analysis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Statistical ensembles in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blokhintsev, D.

    1976-01-01

    The interpretation of quantum mechanics presented in this paper is based on the concept of quantum ensembles. This concept differs essentially from the canonical one by that the interference of the observer into the state of a microscopic system is of no greater importance than in any other field of physics. Owing to this fact, the laws established by quantum mechanics are not of less objective character than the laws governing classical statistical mechanics. The paradoxical nature of some statements of quantum mechanics which result from the interpretation of the wave functions as the observer's notebook greatly stimulated the development of the idea presented. (Auth.)

  13. Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars

    2005-01-01

    offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...... superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did...

  14. Security Enrichment in Intrusion Detection System Using Classifier Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uma R. Salunkhe

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the era of Internet and with increasing number of people as its end users, a large number of attack categories are introduced daily. Hence, effective detection of various attacks with the help of Intrusion Detection Systems is an emerging trend in research these days. Existing studies show effectiveness of machine learning approaches in handling Intrusion Detection Systems. In this work, we aim to enhance detection rate of Intrusion Detection System by using machine learning technique. We propose a novel classifier ensemble based IDS that is constructed using hybrid approach which combines data level and feature level approach. Classifier ensembles combine the opinions of different experts and improve the intrusion detection rate. Experimental results show the improved detection rates of our system compared to reference technique.

  15. Stochastic analysis of residential micro combined heat and power system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karami, H.; Sanjari, M. J.; Gooi, H. B.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper the combined heat and power functionality of a fuel-cell in a residential hybrid energy system, including a battery, is studied. The demand uncertainties are modeled by investigating the stochastic load behavior by applying Monte Carlo simulation. The colonial competitive algorithm...... algorithm. The optimized scheduling of different energy resources is listed in an efficient look-up table for all time intervals. The effects of time of use and the battery efficiency and its size are investigated on the operating cost of the hybrid energy system. The results of this paper are expected...

  16. ANALYSIS OF COMBINED POLYSURFACES TO MESH SURFACES MATCHING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek WYLEŻOŁ

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This article applies to an example of the process of quantitatively evaluate the fit of combined polysurface (NURBS class to a surface mesh. The fitting process of the polysurface and the evaluation of obtained results have been realized in the environment of the CATIA v5 system. Obtained quantitative evaluation are shown graphically in the form of three-dimensional graphs and histograms. As the base surface mesh was used a pelvic bone stl model (the model was created by digitizing didactic physical model.

  17. EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

    KAUST Repository

    Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni; Theofilatos, Konstantinos A.; Kleftogiannis, Dimitrios A.; Likothanasis, Spiridon D.; Tsakalidis, Athanasios K.; Mavroudi, Seferina P.

    2014-01-01

    do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel

  18. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  19. Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

    This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....

  20. A unified MGF-based capacity analysis of diversity combiners over generalized fading channels

    KAUST Repository

    Yilmaz, Ferkan; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2012-01-01

    Unified exact ergodic capacity results for L-branch coherent diversity combiners including equal-gain combining (EGC) and maximal-ratio combining (MRC) are not known. This paper develops a novel generic framework for the capacity analysis of L-branch

  1. Well-posedness and accuracy of the ensemble Kalman filter in discrete and continuous time

    KAUST Repository

    Kelly, D. T B

    2014-09-22

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations associated with the filter, which are required to make a useable algorithm in practice, are derived in an ad hoc fashion. The aim of this paper is to initiate the development of a systematic analysis of the EnKF, in particular to do so for small ensemble size. The perspective is to view the method as a state estimator, and not as an algorithm which approximates the true filtering distribution. The perturbed observation version of the algorithm is studied, without and with variance inflation. Without variance inflation well-posedness of the filter is established; with variance inflation accuracy of the filter, with respect to the true signal underlying the data, is established. The algorithm is considered in discrete time, and also for a continuous time limit arising when observations are frequent and subject to large noise. The underlying dynamical model, and assumptions about it, is sufficiently general to include the Lorenz \\'63 and \\'96 models, together with the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus. The analysis is limited to the case of complete observation of the signal with additive white noise. Numerical results are presented for the Navier-Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus for both complete and partial observations of the signal with additive white noise.

  2. Comparison of Outputs for Variable Combinations Used in Cluster Analysis on Polarmetric Imagery

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Petre, Melinda

    2008-01-01

    .... More specifically, two techniques, Cluster Analysis (CA) and Principle Component Analysis (PCA) can be combined to process Stoke s imagery by distinguishing between pixels, and producing groups of pixels with similar characteristics...

  3. CFD analysis of ejector in a combined ejector cooling system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rusly, E.; Aye, Lu [International Technologies Centre (IDTC), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic. 3010 (Australia); Charters, W.W.S.; Ooi, A. [Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic. 3010 (Australia)

    2005-11-01

    One-dimensional ejector analyses often use coefficients derived from experimental data for a set of operating conditions with limited functionality. In this study, several ejector designs were modelled using finite volume CFD techniques to resolve the flow dynamics in the ejectors. The CFD results were validated with available experimental data. Flow field analyses and predictions of ejector performance outside the experimental range were also carried out. During validation, data from CFD predicted the entrainment ratios with greater accuracy on definite area ratios, although no shock was recorded in the ejector. Predictions outside the experimental range-at operating conditions in a combined ejector-vapour compression system-and flow conditions resulting from ejector geometry variations are discussed. It is found that the maximum entrainment ratio happens in the ejector just before a shock occurs and that the position of the nozzle is an important ejector design parameter. (author)

  4. Texture, residual stress and structural analysis of thin films using a combined X-ray analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutterotti, L.; Chateigner, D.; Ferrari, S.; Ricote, J.

    2004-01-01

    Advanced thin films for today's industrial and research needs require highly specialized methodologies for a successful quantitative characterization. In particular, in the case of multilayer and/or unknown phases a global approach is necessary to obtain some or all the required information. A full approach has been developed integrating novel texture and residual stress methodologies with the Rietveld method (Acta Cryst. 22 (1967) 151) (for crystal structure analysis) and it has been coupled with the reflectivity analysis. The complete analysis can be done at once and offers several benefits: the thicknesses obtained from reflectivity can be used to correct the diffraction spectra, the phase analysis help to identify the layers and to determine the electron density profile for reflectivity; quantitative texture is needed for quantitative phase and residual stress analyses; crystal structure determination benefits of the previous. To achieve this result, it was necessary to develop some new methods, especially for texture and residual stresses. So it was possible to integrate them in the Rietveld, full profile fitting of the patterns. The measurement of these spectra required a special reflectometer/diffractometer that combines a thin parallel beam (for reflectivity) and a texture/stress goniometer with a curved large position sensitive detector. This new diffraction/reflectivity X-ray machine has been used to test the combined approach. Several spectra and the reflectivity patterns have been collected at different tilting angles and processed at once by the special software incorporating the aforementioned methodologies. Some analysis examples will be given to show the possibilities offered by the method

  5. Computational heat transfer analysis and combined ANN–GA ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The analysis using the numerical simulation and neural network ... Optimization is the process of finding the most plausible and desirable solution to a problem. ... increased heat transfer and compared the results of regular non-fuzzy model and fuzzy model. ..... network is designed using MATLAB Neural network toolbox.

  6. Ocean Predictability and Uncertainty Forecasts Using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, M.; Hogan, P. J.; Rowley, C. D.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Penny, S. G.

    2017-12-01

    Ocean predictability and uncertainty are studied with an ensemble system that has been developed based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using the Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology. One of the advantages of this method is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is implicitly supplied with the ensemble avoiding the difficult task of developing tangent linear and adjoint models out of HYCOM with the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate for 4D-VAR. The flow-dependent background covariance from the ensemble will be an indispensable part in the next generation hybrid 4D-Var/ensemble data assimilation system. The predictability and uncertainty for the ocean forecasts are studied initially for the Gulf of Mexico. The results are compared with another ensemble system using Ensemble Transfer (ET) method which has been used in the Navy's operational center. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

  7. Joys of Community Ensemble Playing: The Case of the Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Yuan-Mei; Kao, Kai-Chi

    2012-01-01

    The Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble (HREE) is a community music ensemble supported by Tainan Culture Centre in Taiwan. With enjoyment and friendship as its primary goals, it aims to facilitate the joys of ensemble playing and the spirit of social networking. This article highlights the key aspects of HREE's development in its first two years…

  8. Combined Aero and Underhood Thermal Analysis for Heavy Duty Trucks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vegendla, Prasad [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sofu, Tanju [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Saha, Rohit [Cummins Inc., Columbus, IN (United States); Madurai Kumar, Mahesh [Cummins Inc., Columbus, IN (United States); Hwang, L. K [Cummins Inc., Columbus, IN (United States)

    2017-01-31

    Aerodynamic analysis of the medium-duty delivery truck was performed to achieve vehicle design optimization. Three dimensional CFD simulations were carried out for several improved designs, with a detailed external component analysis of wheel covers, side skirts, roof fairings, and rounded trailer corners. The overall averaged aerodynamics drag reduction through the design modifications were shown up to 22.3% through aerodynamic considerations alone, which is equivalent to 11.16% fuel savings. The main identified fuel efficiencies were based on second generation devices, including wheel covers, side skirts, roof fairings, and rounded trailer corners. The important findings of this work were; (i) the optimum curvature radius of the rounded trailer edges found to be 125 mm, with an arc length of 196.3 mm, (ii) aerodynamic drag reduction increases with dropping clearance of side skirts between wheels and ground, and (iii) aerodynamic drag reduction increases with an extension of front bumper towards the ground.

  9. Quantitative mass spectrometric analysis of glycoproteins combined with enrichment methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Yeong Hee; Kim, Jin Young; Yoo, Jong Shin

    2015-01-01

    Mass spectrometry (MS) has been a core technology for high sensitive and high-throughput analysis of the enriched glycoproteome in aspects of quantitative assays as well as qualitative profiling of glycoproteins. Because it has been widely recognized that aberrant glycosylation in a glycoprotein may involve in progression of a certain disease, the development of efficient analysis tool for the aberrant glycoproteins is very important for deep understanding about pathological function of the glycoprotein and new biomarker development. This review first describes the protein glycosylation-targeting enrichment technologies mainly employing solid-phase extraction methods such as hydrizide-capturing, lectin-specific capturing, and affinity separation techniques based on porous graphitized carbon, hydrophilic interaction chromatography, or immobilized boronic acid. Second, MS-based quantitative analysis strategies coupled with the protein glycosylation-targeting enrichment technologies, by using a label-free MS, stable isotope-labeling, or targeted multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) MS, are summarized with recent published studies. © 2014 The Authors. Mass Spectrometry Reviews Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Thermodynamic analysis of a novel integrated solar combined cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Yang, Yongping

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel ISCC scheme with two-stage DSG fields has been proposed and analyzed. • HRSG and steam turbine working parameters have been optimized to match the solar integration. • New scheme exhibits higher solar shares in the power output and solar-to-electricity efficiency. • Thermodynamic performances between new and reference systems have been investigated and compared. - Abstract: Integrated solar combined cycle (ISCC) systems have become more and more popular due to their high fuel and solar energy utilization efficiencies. Conventional ISCC systems with direct steam generation (DSG) have only one-stage solar input. A novel ISCC with DSG system has been proposed and analyzed in this paper. The new system consists two-stage solar input, which would significantly increase solar share in the total power output. Moreover, how and where solar energy is input into ISCC system would have impact on the solar and system overall efficiencies, which have been analyzed in the paper. It has been found that using solar heat to supply latent heat for vaporization of feedwater would be superior to that to be used for sensible heating purposes (e.g. Superheating steam). The study shows that: (1) producing both the high- and low-pressure saturated steam in the DSG trough collector could be an efficient way to improve process and system performance; (2) for a given live steam pressure, the optimum secondary and reheat steam conditions could be matched to reach the highest system thermal efficiency and net solar-to-electricity efficiency; (3) the net solar-to-electricity efficiency could reach up to 30% in the novel two-stage ISCC system, higher than that in the one-stage ISCC power plant; (4) compared with the conventional combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power system, lower stack temperature could be achieved, owing to the elimination of the approach-temperature-difference constraint, resulting in better thermal match in the heat recovery steam generator

  11. Using synchronization in multi-model ensembles to improve prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiemstra, P.; Selten, F.

    2012-04-01

    In recent decades, many climate models have been developed to understand and predict the behavior of the Earth's climate system. Although these models are all based on the same basic physical principles, they still show different behavior. This is for example caused by the choice of how to parametrize sub-grid scale processes. One method to combine these imperfect models, is to run a multi-model ensemble. The models are given identical initial conditions and are integrated forward in time. A multi-model estimate can for example be a weighted mean of the ensemble members. We propose to go a step further, and try to obtain synchronization between the imperfect models by connecting the multi-model ensemble, and exchanging information. The combined multi-model ensemble is also known as a supermodel. The supermodel has learned from observations how to optimally exchange information between the ensemble members. In this study we focused on the density and formulation of the onnections within the supermodel. The main question was whether we could obtain syn-chronization between two climate models when connecting only a subset of their state spaces. Limiting the connected subspace has two advantages: 1) it limits the transfer of data (bytes) between the ensemble, which can be a limiting factor in large scale climate models, and 2) learning the optimal connection strategy from observations is easier. To answer the research question, we connected two identical quasi-geostrohic (QG) atmospheric models to each other, where the model have different initial conditions. The QG model is a qualitatively realistic simulation of the winter flow on the Northern hemisphere, has three layers and uses a spectral imple-mentation. We connected the models in the original spherical harmonical state space, and in linear combinations of these spherical harmonics, i.e. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). We show that when connecting through spherical harmonics, we only need to connect 28% of

  12. EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

    KAUST Repository

    Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni

    2014-04-26

    Motivation: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are considered the most frequently occurring DNA sequence variations. Several computational methods have been proposed for the classification of missense SNPs to neutral and disease associated. However, existing computational approaches fail to select relevant features by choosing them arbitrarily without sufficient documentation. Moreover, they are limited to the problem ofmissing values, imbalance between the learning datasets and most of them do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel evolutionary embedded algorithm to locate close to optimal Support Vector Regression models. In its second step, these models are combined to extract a universal predictor, which is less prone to overfitting issues, systematizes the rebalancing of the learning sets and uses an internal approach for solving the missing values problem without loss of information. Confidence scores support all the predictions and the model becomes tunable by modifying the classification thresholds. An extensive study was performed for collecting the most relevant features for the problem of classifying SNPs, and a superset of 88 features was constructed. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms well-known algorithms in terms of classification performance in the examined datasets. Finally, the proposed algorithmic framework was able to uncover the significant role of certain features such as the solvent accessibility feature, and the top-scored predictions were further validated by linking them with disease phenotypes. © The Author 2014.

  13. Stochastic analysis of residential micro combined heat and power system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karami, H.; Sanjari, M.J.; Gooi, H.B.; Gharehpetian, G.B.; Guerrero, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Applying colonial competitive algorithm to the problem of optimal dispatching. • Economic modeling of the residential integrated energy system. • Investigating differences of stand-alone and system-connected modes of fuel cell operation. • Considering uncertainty on the electrical load. • The effects of battery capacity and its efficiency on the system is investigated. - Abstract: In this paper the combined heat and power functionality of a fuel-cell in a residential hybrid energy system, including a battery, is studied. The demand uncertainties are modeled by investigating the stochastic load behavior by applying Monte Carlo simulation. The colonial competitive algorithm is adopted to the hybrid energy system scheduling problem and different energy resources are optimally scheduled to have optimal operating cost of hybrid energy system. In order to show the effectiveness of the colonial competitive algorithm, the results are compared with the results of the harmony search algorithm. The optimized scheduling of different energy resources is listed in an efficient look-up table for all time intervals. The effects of time of use and the battery efficiency and its size are investigated on the operating cost of the hybrid energy system. The results of this paper are expected to be used effectively in a real hybrid energy system.

  14. Combined analysis of fourteen nuclear genes refines the Ursidae phylogeny.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagès, Marie; Calvignac, Sébastien; Klein, Catherine; Paris, Mathilde; Hughes, Sandrine; Hänni, Catherine

    2008-04-01

    Despite numerous studies, questions remain about the evolutionary history of Ursidae and additional independent genetic markers were needed to elucidate these ambiguities. For this purpose, we sequenced ten nuclear genes for all the eight extant bear species. By combining these new sequences with those of four other recently published nuclear markers, we provide new insights into the phylogenetic relationships of the Ursidae family members. The hypothesis that the giant panda was the first species to diverge among ursids is definitively confirmed and the precise branching order within the Ursus genus is clarified for the first time. Moreover, our analyses indicate that the American and the Asiatic black bears do not cluster as sister taxa, as had been previously hypothesised. Sun and sloth bears clearly appear as the most basal ursine species but uncertainties about their exact relationships remain. Since our larger dataset did not enable us to clarify this last question, identifying rare genomic changes in bear genomes could be a promising solution for further studies.

  15. Comprehensive benchmarking and ensemble approaches for metagenomic classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Alexa B R; Ounit, Rachid; Afshinnekoo, Ebrahim; Prill, Robert J; Hénaff, Elizabeth; Alexander, Noah; Minot, Samuel S; Danko, David; Foox, Jonathan; Ahsanuddin, Sofia; Tighe, Scott; Hasan, Nur A; Subramanian, Poorani; Moffat, Kelly; Levy, Shawn; Lonardi, Stefano; Greenfield, Nick; Colwell, Rita R; Rosen, Gail L; Mason, Christopher E

    2017-09-21

    One of the main challenges in metagenomics is the identification of microorganisms in clinical and environmental samples. While an extensive and heterogeneous set of computational tools is available to classify microorganisms using whole-genome shotgun sequencing data, comprehensive comparisons of these methods are limited. In this study, we use the largest-to-date set of laboratory-generated and simulated controls across 846 species to evaluate the performance of 11 metagenomic classifiers. Tools were characterized on the basis of their ability to identify taxa at the genus, species, and strain levels, quantify relative abundances of taxa, and classify individual reads to the species level. Strikingly, the number of species identified by the 11 tools can differ by over three orders of magnitude on the same datasets. Various strategies can ameliorate taxonomic misclassification, including abundance filtering, ensemble approaches, and tool intersection. Nevertheless, these strategies were often insufficient to completely eliminate false positives from environmental samples, which are especially important where they concern medically relevant species. Overall, pairing tools with different classification strategies (k-mer, alignment, marker) can combine their respective advantages. This study provides positive and negative controls, titrated standards, and a guide for selecting tools for metagenomic analyses by comparing ranges of precision, accuracy, and recall. We show that proper experimental design and analysis parameters can reduce false positives, provide greater resolution of species in complex metagenomic samples, and improve the interpretation of results.

  16. Ensembling Variable Selectors by Stability Selection for the Cox Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Yan Yin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As a pivotal tool to build interpretive models, variable selection plays an increasingly important role in high-dimensional data analysis. In recent years, variable selection ensembles (VSEs have gained much interest due to their many advantages. Stability selection (Meinshausen and Bühlmann, 2010, a VSE technique based on subsampling in combination with a base algorithm like lasso, is an effective method to control false discovery rate (FDR and to improve selection accuracy in linear regression models. By adopting lasso as a base learner, we attempt to extend stability selection to handle variable selection problems in a Cox model. According to our experience, it is crucial to set the regularization region Λ in lasso and the parameter λmin properly so that stability selection can work well. To the best of our knowledge, however, there is no literature addressing this problem in an explicit way. Therefore, we first provide a detailed procedure to specify Λ and λmin. Then, some simulated and real-world data with various censoring rates are used to examine how well stability selection performs. It is also compared with several other variable selection approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that it achieves better or competitive performance in comparison with several other popular techniques.

  17. Reliability analysis of HVDC grid combined with power flow simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yongtao; Langeland, Tore; Solvik, Johan [DNV AS, Hoevik (Norway); Stewart, Emma [DNV KEMA, Camino Ramon, CA (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Based on a DC grid power flow solver and the proposed GEIR, we carried out reliability analysis for a HVDC grid test system proposed by CIGRE working group B4-58, where the failure statistics are collected from literature survey. The proposed methodology is used to evaluate the impact of converter configuration on the overall reliability performance of the HVDC grid, where the symmetrical monopole configuration is compared with the bipole with metallic return wire configuration. The results quantify the improvement on reliability by using the later alternative. (orig.)

  18. Combined osteochondral allograft and meniscal allograft transplantation: a survivorship analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getgood, Alan; Gelber, Jonathon; Gortz, Simon; De Young, Alison; Bugbee, William

    2015-04-01

    The efficacy of meniscal allograft transplantation (MAT) and osteochondral allografting (OCA) as individual treatment modalities for select applications is well established. MAT and OCA are considered symbiotic procedures due to a complementary spectrum of indications and reciprocal contraindications. However, few outcomes of concomitant MAT and OCA have been reported. This study is a retrospective review of patients who received simultaneous MAT and OCA between 1983 and 2011. Forty-eight (twenty-nine male: nineteen female) patients with a median age of 35.8 years (15-66) received combined MAT and OCA procedures between 1983 and 2011. Forty-three patients had received previous surgery with a median of 3 procedures (1-11 procedures). The underlying diagnosis was trauma (tibial plateau fracture) in 33 % with osteoarthritis predominating in 54.2 % of cases. Thirty-one patients received a lateral meniscus, 16 received a medial meniscus and one patient received bilateral MAT. The median number of OCAs was two per patient (1-5 grafts), with a median graft area of 15 cm(2) (0.7-41 cm(2)). There were 21 unipolar, 24 bipolar (tibiofemoral) and three multifocal lesions. Thirty-six MATs constituted a compound tibial plateau OCA with native meniscus attached. At follow-up, failure was defined as any procedure resulting in removal or revision of one or more of the grafts. Patients completed the modified Merle d'Aubigné and Postel (18-point) scale, Knee Society Function (KS-F) score, and subjective International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) scores. Patient satisfaction was also captured. Twenty-six of 48 patients (54.2 %) required reoperation, but only 11 patients (22.9 %) were noted to have failed (10 MAT and 11 OCA). The mean time to failure was 3.2 years (95 % CI 1.5-4.9 years) and 2.7 years (95 % CI 1.3-4.2 years) for MAT and OCA, respectively. The 5-year survivorship was 78 and 73 % for MAT and OCA respectively, and 69 and 68 % at 10 years. Six of

  19. Impact of climate change on precipitation distribution and water availability in the Nile using CMIP5 GCM ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekonnen, Z. T.; Gebremichael, M.

    2017-12-01

    ABSTRACT In a basin like the Nile where millions of people depend on rainfed agriculture and surface water resources for their livelihoods, changes in precipitation will have tremendous social and economic consequences. General circulation models (GCMs) have been associated with high uncertainty in their projection of future precipitation for the Nile basin. Some studies tried to compare performance of different GCMs by doing a Multi-Model comparison for the region. Many indicated that there is no single model that gives the "best estimate" of precipitation for a very complex and large basin like the Nile. In this study, we used a combination of satellite and long term rain gauge precipitation measurements (TRMM and CenTrends) to evaluate the performance of 10 GCMs from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) at different spatial and seasonal scales and produce a weighted ensemble projection. Our results confirm that there is no single model that gives best estimate over the region, hence the approach of creating an ensemble depending on how the model performed in specific areas and seasons resulted in an improved estimate of precipitation compared with observed values. Following the same approach, we created an ensemble of future precipitation projections for four different time periods (2000-2024, 2025-2049 and 2050-2100). The analysis showed that all the major sub-basins of the Nile will get will get more precipitation with time, even though the distribution with in the sub basin might be different. Overall the analysis showed a 15 % increase (125 mm/year) by the end of the century averaged over the area up to the Aswan dam. KEY WORDS: Climate Change, CMIP5, Nile, East Africa, CenTrends, Precipitation, Weighted Ensembles

  20. Popular Music and the Instrumental Ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boespflug, George

    1999-01-01

    Discusses popular music, the role of the musical performer as a creator, and the styles of jazz and popular music. Describes the pop ensemble at the college level, focusing on improvisation, rehearsals, recording, and performance. Argues that pop ensembles be used in junior and senior high school. (CMK)

  1. Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arritt, Raymond W.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Takle, Eugene S.

    2004-01-01

    The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average...

  2. Time-optimal path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Tong; Le Maitre, Olivier; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    the performance of sampling strategy, and develop insight into extensions dealing with regional or general circulation models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times, and consequently develop a path planning

  3. Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Tong

    2016-08-20

    An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

  4. Short-term ensemble radar rainfall forecasts for hydrological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codo de Oliveira, M.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    Flooding is a very common natural disaster around the world, putting local population and economy at risk. Forecasting floods several hours ahead and issuing warnings are of main importance to permit proper response in emergency situations. However, it is important to know the uncertainties related to the rainfall forecasting in order to produce more reliable forecasts. Nowcasting models (short-term rainfall forecasts) are able to produce high spatial and temporal resolution predictions that are useful in hydrological applications. Nonetheless, they are subject to uncertainties mainly due to the nowcasting model used, errors in radar rainfall estimation, temporal development of the velocity field and to the fact that precipitation processes such as growth and decay are not taken into account. In this study an ensemble generation scheme using rain gauge data as a reference to estimate radars errors is used to produce forecasts with up to 3h lead-time. The ensembles try to assess in a realistic way the residual uncertainties that remain even after correction algorithms are applied in the radar data. The ensembles produced are compered to a stochastic ensemble generator. Furthermore, the rainfall forecast output was used as an input in a hydrodynamic sewer network model and also in hydrological model for catchments of different sizes in north England. A comparative analysis was carried of how was carried out to assess how the radar uncertainties propagate into these models. The first named author is grateful to CAPES - Ciencia sem Fronteiras for funding this PhD research.

  5. Fire spread estimation on forest wildfire using ensemble kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syarifah, Wardatus; Apriliani, Erna

    2018-04-01

    Wildfire is one of the most frequent disasters in the world, for example forest wildfire, causing population of forest decrease. Forest wildfire, whether naturally occurring or prescribed, are potential risks for ecosystems and human settlements. These risks can be managed by monitoring the weather, prescribing fires to limit available fuel, and creating firebreaks. With computer simulations we can predict and explore how fires may spread. The model of fire spread on forest wildfire was established to determine the fire properties. The fire spread model is prepared based on the equation of the diffusion reaction model. There are many methods to estimate the spread of fire. The Kalman Filter Ensemble Method is a modified estimation method of the Kalman Filter algorithm that can be used to estimate linear and non-linear system models. In this research will apply Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to estimate the spread of fire on forest wildfire. Before applying the EnKF method, the fire spread model will be discreted using finite difference method. At the end, the analysis obtained illustrated by numerical simulation using software. The simulation results show that the Ensemble Kalman Filter method is closer to the system model when the ensemble value is greater, while the covariance value of the system model and the smaller the measurement.

  6. Combined QCD and electroweak analysis of HERA data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abramowicz, H. [Tel Aviv Univ. (Israel). School of Physics; Max-Planck-Institute for Physics, Munich (Germany); Abt, I. [Max-Planck-Institute for Physics, Munich (Germany); Adamczyk, L. [AGH-Univ. of Science and Technology, Krakow (Poland). Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science; Collaboration: ZEUS Collaboration; and others

    2016-03-15

    A simultaneous fit of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and electroweak parameters to HERA data on deep inelastic scattering is presented. The input data are the neutral current and charged current inclusive cross sections which were previously used in the QCD analysis leading to the HERAPDF2.0 PDFs. In addition, the polarisation of the electron beam was taken into account for the ZEUS data recorded between 2004 and 2007. Results on the vector and axial-vector couplings of the Z boson to u- and d-type quarks, on the value of the electroweak mixing angle and the mass of the W boson are presented. The values obtained for the electroweak parameters are in agreement with Standard Model predictions.

  7. MAMMOGRAMS ANALYSIS USING SVM CLASSIFIER IN COMBINED TRANSFORMS DOMAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.N. Prathibha

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Breast cancer is a primary cause of mortality and morbidity in women. Reports reveal that earlier the detection of abnormalities, better the improvement in survival. Digital mammograms are one of the most effective means for detecting possible breast anomalies at early stages. Digital mammograms supported with Computer Aided Diagnostic (CAD systems help the radiologists in taking reliable decisions. The proposed CAD system extracts wavelet features and spectral features for the better classification of mammograms. The Support Vector Machines classifier is used to analyze 206 mammogram images from Mias database pertaining to the severity of abnormality, i.e., benign and malign. The proposed system gives 93.14% accuracy for discrimination between normal-malign and 87.25% accuracy for normal-benign samples and 89.22% accuracy for benign-malign samples. The study reveals that features extracted in hybrid transform domain with SVM classifier proves to be a promising tool for analysis of mammograms.

  8. Combined QCD and electroweak analysis of HERA data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abramowicz, H.; Abt, I.; Adamczyk, L.

    2016-03-01

    A simultaneous fit of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and electroweak parameters to HERA data on deep inelastic scattering is presented. The input data are the neutral current and charged current inclusive cross sections which were previously used in the QCD analysis leading to the HERAPDF2.0 PDFs. In addition, the polarisation of the electron beam was taken into account for the ZEUS data recorded between 2004 and 2007. Results on the vector and axial-vector couplings of the Z boson to u- and d-type quarks, on the value of the electroweak mixing angle and the mass of the W boson are presented. The values obtained for the electroweak parameters are in agreement with Standard Model predictions.

  9. Combined QCD and electroweak analysis of HERA data

    CERN Document Server

    Abramowicz, H; Adamczyk, L; Adamus, M; Antonelli, S; Aushev, V; Behnke, O; Behrens, U; Bertolin, A; Bloch, I; Boos, EG; Brock, I; Brook, NH; Brugnera, R; Bruni, A; Bussey, PJ; Caldwell, A; Capua, M; Catterall, CD; Chwastowski, J; Ciborowski, J; Ciesielski, R; Cooper-Sarkar, AM; Corradi, M; Dementiev, RK; Devenish, RCE; Dusini, S; Foster, B; Gach, G; Gallo, E; Garfagnini, A; Geiser, A; Gizhko, A; Gladilin, LK; Golubkov, Yu A; Grzelak, G; Guzik, M; Hain, W; Hochman, D; Hori, R; Ibrahim, ZA; Iga, Y; Ishitsuka, M; Januschek, F; Jomhari, NZ; Kadenko, I; Kananov, S; Karshon, U; Kaur, P; Kisielewska, D; Klanner, R; Klein, U; Korzhavina, IA; Kotański, A; Kötz, U; Kovalchuk, N; Kowalski, H; Krupa, B; Kuprash, O; Kuze, M; Levchenko, BB; Levy, A; Limentani, S; Lisovyi, M; Lobodzinska, E; Löhr, B; Lohrmann, E; Longhin, A; Lontkovskyi, D; Lukina, OYu; Makarenko, I; Malka, J; Mohamad Idris, F; Mohammad Nasir, N; Myronenko, V; Nagano, K; Nobe, T; Nowak, RJ; Onishchuk, Yu; Paul, E; Perlański, W; Pokrovskiy, NS; Przybycien, M; Roloff, P; Ruspa, M; Saxon, DH; Schioppa, M; Schneekloth, U; Schörner-Sadenius, T; Shcheglova, LM; Shevchenko, R; Shkola, O; Shyrma, Yu; Singh, I; Skillicorn, IO; Słomiński, W; Solano, A; Stanco, L; Stefaniuk, N; Stern, A; Stopa, P; Sztuk-Dambietz, J; Tassi, E; Tokushuku, K; Tomaszewska, J; Tsurugai, T; Turcato, M; Turkot, O; Tymieniecka, T; Verbytskyi, A; Wan Abdullah, WAT; Wichmann, K; Wing, M; Yamada, S; Yamazaki, Y; Zakharchuk, N; Żarnecki, AF; Zawiejski, L; Zenaiev, O; Zhautykov, BO; Zotkin, DS; Bhadra, S; Gwenlan, C; Hlushchenko, O; Polini, A; Mastroberardino, A

    2016-05-03

    A simultaneous fit of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and electroweak parameters to HERA data on deep inelastic scattering is presented. The input data are the neutral current and charged current inclusive cross sections which were previously used in the QCD analysis leading to the HERAPDF2.0 PDFs. In addition, the polarisation of the electron beam was taken into account for the ZEUS data recorded between 2004 and 2007. Results on the vector and axial-vector couplings of the Z boson to u- and d-type quarks, on the value of the electroweak mixing angle and the mass of the W boson are presented. The values obtained for the electroweak parameters are in agreement with Standard Model predictions.

  10. Reducing Risk of Noise-Induced Hearing Loss in Collegiate Music Ensembles Using Ambient Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Jason; Chesky, Kris

    2017-09-01

    Student musicians are at risk for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) as they develop skills and perform during instructional activities. Studies using longitudinal dosimeter data show that pedagogical procedures and instructor behaviors are highly predictive of NIHL risk, thus implying the need for innovative approaches to increase instructor competency in managing instructional activities without interfering with artistic and academic freedom. Ambient information systems, an emerging trend in human-computer interaction that infuses psychological behavioral theories into technologies, can help construct informative risk-regulating systems. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of introducing an ambient information system into the ensemble setting. The system used two ambient displays and a counterbalanced within-subjects treatment study design with six jazz ensemble instructors to determine if the system could induce a behavior change that alters trends in measures resulting from dosimeter data. This study assessed efficacy using time series analysis to determine changes in eight statistical measures of behavior over a 9-wk period. Analysis showed that the system was effective, as all instructors showed changes in a combination of measures. This study is in an important step in developing non-interfering technology to reduce NIHL among academic musicians.

  11. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 1: The visualization tool Met.3D (version 1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rautenhaus

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We present "Met.3D", a new open-source tool for the interactive three-dimensional (3-D visualization of numerical ensemble weather predictions. The tool has been developed to support weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns; however, it is applicable to further forecasting, research and teaching activities. Our work approaches challenging topics related to the visual analysis of numerical atmospheric model output – 3-D visualization, ensemble visualization and how both can be used in a meaningful way suited to weather forecasting. Met.3D builds a bridge from proven 2-D visualization methods commonly used in meteorology to 3-D visualization by combining both visualization types in a 3-D context. We address the issue of spatial perception in the 3-D view and present approaches to using the ensemble to allow the user to assess forecast uncertainty. Interactivity is key to our approach. Met.3D uses modern graphics technology to achieve interactive visualization on standard consumer hardware. The tool supports forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF and can operate directly on ECMWF hybrid sigma-pressure level grids. We describe the employed visualization algorithms, and analyse the impact of the ECMWF grid topology on computing 3-D ensemble statistical quantities. Our techniques are demonstrated with examples from the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment campaign.

  12. Topological quantization of ensemble averages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prodan, Emil

    2009-01-01

    We define the current of a quantum observable and, under well-defined conditions, we connect its ensemble average to the index of a Fredholm operator. The present work builds on a formalism developed by Kellendonk and Schulz-Baldes (2004 J. Funct. Anal. 209 388) to study the quantization of edge currents for continuous magnetic Schroedinger operators. The generalization given here may be a useful tool to scientists looking for novel manifestations of the topological quantization. As a new application, we show that the differential conductance of atomic wires is given by the index of a certain operator. We also comment on how the formalism can be used to probe the existence of edge states

  13. Characterizing Ensembles of Superconducting Qubits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sears, Adam; Birenbaum, Jeff; Hover, David; Rosenberg, Danna; Weber, Steven; Yoder, Jonilyn L.; Kerman, Jamie; Gustavsson, Simon; Kamal, Archana; Yan, Fei; Oliver, William

    We investigate ensembles of up to 48 superconducting qubits embedded within a superconducting cavity. Such arrays of qubits have been proposed for the experimental study of Ising Hamiltonians, and efficient methods to characterize and calibrate these types of systems are still under development. Here we leverage high qubit coherence (> 70 μs) to characterize individual devices as well as qubit-qubit interactions, utilizing the common resonator mode for a joint readout. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of ODNI, IARPA, or the US Government.

  14. An approach for analyzing the ensemble mean from a dynamic point of view

    OpenAIRE

    Pengfei, Wang

    2014-01-01

    Simultaneous ensemble mean equations (LEMEs) for the Lorenz model are obtained, enabling us to analyze the properties of the ensemble mean from a dynamical point of view. The qualitative analysis for the two-sample and n-sample LEMEs show the locations and number of stable points are different from the Lorenz equations (LEs), and the results are validated by numerical experiments. The analysis for the eigenmatrix of the stable points of LEMEs indicates that the stability of these stable point...

  15. Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Dan

    1990-01-01

    Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

  16. Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Brendan; Levy, Maayan; Dechery, Joseph B; MacLean, Jason N

    2018-01-01

    A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches.

  17. Probability Maps for the Visualization of Assimilation Ensemble Flow Data

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2015-05-25

    Ocean forecasts nowadays are created by running ensemble simulations in combination with data assimilation techniques. Most of these techniques resample the ensemble members after each assimilation cycle. This means that in a time series, after resampling, every member can follow up on any of the members before resampling. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially with the number of assimilation cycles. In general a single possible path is not of interest but only the probabilities that any point in space might be reached by a particle at some point in time. In this work we present an approach using probability-weighted piecewise particle trajectories to allow such a mapping interactively, instead of tracing quadrillions of individual particles. We achieve interactive rates by binning the domain and splitting up the tracing process into the individual assimilation cycles, so that particles that fall into the same bin after a cycle can be treated as a single particle with a larger probability as input for the next time step. As a result we loose the possibility to track individual particles, but can create probability maps for any desired seed at interactive rates.

  18. Visualization of uncertainty and ensemble data: Exploration of climate modeling and weather forecast data with integrated ViSUS-CDAT systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, Kristin; Pascucci, Valerio; Johhson, Chris; Wilson, Andrew; Bremer, Peer-Timo; Williams, Dean; Doutriaux, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Climate scientists and meteorologists are working towards a better understanding of atmospheric conditions and global climate change. To explore the relationships present in numerical predictions of the atmosphere, ensemble datasets are produced that combine time- and spatially-varying simulations generated using multiple numeric models, sampled input conditions, and perturbed parameters. These data sets mitigate as well as describe the uncertainty present in the data by providing insight into the effects of parameter perturbation, sensitivity to initial conditions, and inconsistencies in model outcomes. As such, massive amounts of data are produced, creating challenges both in data analysis and in visualization. This work presents an approach to understanding ensembles by using a collection of statistical descriptors to summarize the data, and displaying these descriptors using variety of visualization techniques which are familiar to domain experts. The resulting techniques are integrated into the ViSUS/Climate Data and Analysis Tools (CDAT) system designed to provide a directly accessible, complex visualization framework to atmospheric researchers.

  19. On the incidence of meteorological and hydrological processors: Effect of resolution, sharpness and reliability of hydrological ensemble forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abaza, Mabrouk; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Perreault, Luc

    2017-12-01

    Meteorological and hydrological ensemble prediction systems are imperfect. Their outputs could often be improved through the use of a statistical processor, opening up the question of the necessity of using both processors (meteorological and hydrological), only one of them, or none. This experiment compares the predictive distributions from four hydrological ensemble prediction systems (H-EPS) utilising the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) probabilistic sequential data assimilation scheme. They differ in the inclusion or not of the Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) method for post-processing meteorological forecasts and the ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (ensemble BMA) method for hydrological forecast post-processing. The experiment is implemented on three large watersheds and relies on the combination of two meteorological reforecast products: the 4-member Canadian reforecasts from the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP) and the 10-member American reforecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), leading to 14 members at each time step. Results show that all four tested H-EPS lead to resolution and sharpness values that are quite similar, with an advantage to DBS + EnKF. The ensemble BMA is unable to compensate for any bias left in the precipitation ensemble forecasts. On the other hand, it succeeds in calibrating ensemble members that are otherwise under-dispersed. If reliability is preferred over resolution and sharpness, DBS + EnKF + ensemble BMA performs best, making use of both processors in the H-EPS system. Conversely, for enhanced resolution and sharpness, DBS is the preferred method.

  20. Detection of eardrum abnormalities using ensemble deep learning approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senaras, Caglar; Moberly, Aaron C.; Teknos, Theodoros; Essig, Garth; Elmaraghy, Charles; Taj-Schaal, Nazhat; Yua, Lianbo; Gurcan, Metin N.

    2018-02-01

    In this study, we proposed an approach to report the condition of the eardrum as "normal" or "abnormal" by ensembling two different deep learning architectures. In the first network (Network 1), we applied transfer learning to the Inception V3 network by using 409 labeled samples. As a second network (Network 2), we designed a convolutional neural network to take advantage of auto-encoders by using additional 673 unlabeled eardrum samples. The individual classification accuracies of the Network 1 and Network 2 were calculated as 84.4%(+/- 12.1%) and 82.6% (+/- 11.3%), respectively. Only 32% of the errors of the two networks were the same, making it possible to combine two approaches to achieve better classification accuracy. The proposed ensemble method allows us to achieve robust classification because it has high accuracy (84.4%) with the lowest standard deviation (+/- 10.3%).

  1. An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandrini, S.; Pinson, P.; Hagedorn, R.; Decimi, G.; Sperati, S.

    2011-02-01

    The wind power forecasts of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast applied in this study is based on meteorological models that provide the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. For this purpose a training of a Neural Network (NN) to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has been performed. One wind farm has been examined located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). First we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by the combination of models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error (normalized by nominal power) of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Finally we have focused on the possibility of using the ensemble model system (EPS by ECMWF) to estimate the hourly, three days ahead, power forecast accuracy. Contingency diagram between RMSE of the deterministic power forecast and the ensemble members spread of wind forecast have been produced. From this first analysis it seems that ensemble spread could be used as an indicator of the forecast's accuracy at least for the first three days ahead period.

  2. Ensemble learned vaccination uptake prediction using web search queries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Dalum; Lioma, Christina; Mølbak, Kåre

    2016-01-01

    We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official...... vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake eff?ectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields comparative performance. To our knowledge, this is the ?first study to predict vaccination uptake...

  3. Ensemble prediction of floods – catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Reszler

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the uncertainty of flood forecasts by ensemble methods is becoming increasingly important for operational purposes. The aim of this paper is to examine how the ensemble distribution of precipitation forecasts propagates in the catchment system, and to interpret the flood forecast probabilities relative to the forecast errors. We use the 622 km2 Kamp catchment in Austria as an example where a comprehensive data set, including a 500 yr and a 1000 yr flood, is available. A spatially-distributed continuous rainfall-runoff model is used along with ensemble and deterministic precipitation forecasts that combine rain gauge data, radar data and the forecast fields of the ALADIN and ECMWF numerical weather prediction models. The analyses indicate that, for long lead times, the variability of the precipitation ensemble is amplified as it propagates through the catchment system as a result of non-linear catchment response. In contrast, for lead times shorter than the catchment lag time (e.g. 12 h and less, the variability of the precipitation ensemble is decreased as the forecasts are mainly controlled by observed upstream runoff and observed precipitation. Assuming that all ensemble members are equally likely, the statistical analyses for five flood events at the Kamp showed that the ensemble spread of the flood forecasts is always narrower than the distribution of the forecast errors. This is because the ensemble forecasts focus on the uncertainty in forecast precipitation as the dominant source of uncertainty, and other sources of uncertainty are not accounted for. However, a number of analyses, including Relative Operating Characteristic diagrams, indicate that the ensemble spread is a useful indicator to assess potential forecast errors for lead times larger than 12 h.

  4. Preliminary Assessment of Tecplot Chorus for Analyzing Ensemble of CTH Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agelastos, Anthony Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stevenson, Joel O. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Attaway, Stephen W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peterson, David

    2015-04-01

    The exploration of large parameter spaces in search of problem solution and uncertainty quantifcation produces very large ensembles of data. Processing ensemble data will continue to require more resources as simulation complexity and HPC platform throughput increase. More tools are needed to help provide rapid insight into these data sets to decrease manual processing time by the analyst and to increase knowledge the data can provide. One such tool is Tecplot Chorus, whose strengths are visualizing ensemble metadata and linked images. This report contains the analysis and conclusions from evaluating Tecplot Chorus with an example problem that is relevant to Sandia National Laboratories.

  5. Improved validation of IDP ensembles by one-bond Cα–Hα scalar couplings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gapsys, Vytautas [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Computational Biomolecular Dynamics Group (Germany); Narayanan, Raghavendran L.; Xiang, ShengQi [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Department for NMR-Based Structural Biology (Germany); Groot, Bert L. de [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Computational Biomolecular Dynamics Group (Germany); Zweckstetter, Markus, E-mail: markus.zweckstetter@dzne.de [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Department for NMR-Based Structural Biology (Germany)

    2015-11-15

    Intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) are best described by ensembles of conformations and a variety of approaches have been developed to determine IDP ensembles. Because of the large number of conformations, however, cross-validation of the determined ensembles by independent experimental data is crucial. The {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} coupling constant is particularly suited for cross-validation, because it has a large magnitude and mostly depends on the often less accessible dihedral angle ψ. Here, we reinvestigated the connection between {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} values and protein backbone dihedral angles. We show that accurate amino-acid specific random coil values of the {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} coupling constant, in combination with a reparameterized empirical Karplus-type equation, allow for reliable cross-validation of molecular ensembles of IDPs.

  6. Challenges in combining different data sets during analysis when using grounded theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rintala, Tuula-Maria; Paavilainen, Eija; Astedt-Kurki, Päivi

    2014-05-01

    To describe the challenges in combining two data sets during grounded theory analysis. The use of grounded theory in nursing research is common. It is a suitable method for studying human action and interaction. It is recommended that many alternative sources of data are collected to create as rich a dataset as possible. Data from interviews with people with diabetes (n=19) and their family members (n=19). Combining two data sets. When using grounded theory, there are numerous challenges in collecting and managing data, especially for the novice researcher. One challenge is to combine different data sets during the analysis. There are many methodological textbooks about grounded theory but there is little written in the literature about combining different data sets. Discussion is needed on the management of data and the challenges of grounded theory. This article provides a means for combining different data sets in the grounded theory analysis process.

  7. MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.

  8. The limit shape problem for ensembles of Young diagrams

    CERN Document Server

    Hora, Akihito

    2016-01-01

    This book treats ensembles of Young diagrams originating from group-theoretical contexts and investigates what statistical properties are observed there in a large-scale limit. The focus is mainly on analyzing the interesting phenomenon that specific curves appear in the appropriate scaling limit for the profiles of Young diagrams. This problem is regarded as an important origin of recent vital studies on harmonic analysis of huge symmetry structures. As mathematics, an asymptotic theory of representations is developed of the symmetric groups of degree n as n goes to infinity. The framework of rigorous limit theorems (especially the law of large numbers) in probability theory is employed as well as combinatorial analysis of group characters of symmetric groups and applications of Voiculescu's free probability. The central destination here is a clear description of the asymptotic behavior of rescaled profiles of Young diagrams in the Plancherel ensemble from both static and dynamic points of view.

  9. A variational ensemble scheme for noisy image data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yin; Robinson, Cordelia; Heitz, Dominique; Mémin, Etienne

    2014-05-01

    Data assimilation techniques aim at recovering a system state variables trajectory denoted as X, along time from partially observed noisy measurements of the system denoted as Y. These procedures, which couple dynamics and noisy measurements of the system, fulfill indeed a twofold objective. On one hand, they provide a denoising - or reconstruction - procedure of the data through a given model framework and on the other hand, they provide estimation procedures for unknown parameters of the dynamics. A standard variational data assimilation problem can be formulated as the minimization of the following objective function with respect to the initial discrepancy, η, from the background initial guess: δ« J(η(x)) = 1∥Xb (x) - X (t ,x)∥2 + 1 tf∥H(X (t,x ))- Y (t,x)∥2dt. 2 0 0 B 2 t0 R (1) where the observation operator H links the state variable and the measurements. The cost function can be interpreted as the log likelihood function associated to the a posteriori distribution of the state given the past history of measurements and the background. In this work, we aim at studying ensemble based optimal control strategies for data assimilation. Such formulation nicely combines the ingredients of ensemble Kalman filters and variational data assimilation (4DVar). It is also formulated as the minimization of the objective function (1), but similarly to ensemble filter, it introduces in its objective function an empirical ensemble-based background-error covariance defined as: B ≡ )(Xb - )T>. (2) Thus, it works in an off-line smoothing mode rather than on the fly like sequential filters. Such resulting ensemble variational data assimilation technique corresponds to a relatively new family of methods [1,2,3]. It presents two main advantages: first, it does not require anymore to construct the adjoint of the dynamics tangent linear operator, which is a considerable advantage with respect to the method's implementation, and second, it enables the handling of a flow

  10. Ensemble atmospheric dispersion modeling for emergency response consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Addis, R.P.; Buckley, R.L.

    2003-01-01

    models. This provides a better understanding of the atmosphere and plume behavior than would a single model output. Atmospheric models often give the impression of greater accuracy than the science is capable of delivering. The ensemble approach is a powerful way to reassert the concept of having a family of equally valid solutions, while enabling outliers to be identified. The U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Technology Center (SRTC) has participated in RTMOD and ENSEMBLE. SRTC uses the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) to provide plume forecasts in real-time for the European grid as described in the figure. The NOAA northern hemispheric model, Global Forecast System (a combination of the medium range forecast and aviation forecast models), is used to provide the initial and boundary conditions for RAMS. The model plume forecast data are sent to the ENSEMBLE WEB page in real-time where they may be compared with other model outputs. SRTC has participated in all the ENSEMBLE exercises in real-time. An example of the ensemble output is shown in the figure, which shows an overlay of the SRTC (crosshatched) initial 60-hour forecast for the plume overlaid on an ensemble of 5 other model outputs. The plume shadings show the level of consensus for a minimum threshold, enabling modelers to determine consensus between models and identify possible outliers. The traditional approach to provide atmospheric consequence assessment tools to aid decision-makers in response to a release from a nuclear facility is to provide a plume output from a particular model. However, the non-unique nature of solutions to the non-linear equations that govern the atmosphere, and the sensitivity of such equations to perturbations in the initial and boundary conditions, results in any single model output being simply one of many viable solutions. As such, the traditional approach does a disservice to decision-makers by inferring greater

  11. Mass Conservation and Positivity Preservation with Ensemble-type Kalman Filter Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Tijana; McLaughlin, Dennis B.; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Maintaining conservative physical laws numerically has long been recognized as being important in the development of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In the broader context of data assimilation, concerted efforts to maintain conservation laws numerically and to understand the significance of doing so have begun only recently. In order to enforce physically based conservation laws of total mass and positivity in the ensemble Kalman filter, we incorporate constraints to ensure that the filter ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. We show that the analysis steps of ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) algorithm and ensemble Kalman filter algorithm (EnKF) can conserve the mass integral, but do not preserve positivity. Further, if localization is applied or if negative values are simply set to zero, then the total mass is not conserved either. In order to ensure mass conservation, a projection matrix that corrects for localization effects is constructed. In order to maintain both mass conservation and positivity preservation through the analysis step, we construct a data assimilation algorithms based on quadratic programming and ensemble Kalman filtering. Mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate constraints. Some simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. The results show clear improvements in both analyses and forecasts, particularly in the presence of localized features. Behavior of the algorithm is also tested in presence of model error.

  12. Combined approach based on principal component analysis and canonical discriminant analysis for investigating hyperspectral plant response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Maria Stellacci

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Hyperspectral (HS data represents an extremely powerful means for rapidly detecting crop stress and then aiding in the rational management of natural resources in agriculture. However, large volume of data poses a challenge for data processing and extracting crucial information. Multivariate statistical techniques can play a key role in the analysis of HS data, as they may allow to both eliminate redundant information and identify synthetic indices which maximize differences among levels of stress. In this paper we propose an integrated approach, based on the combined use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA and Canonical Discriminant Analysis (CDA, to investigate HS plant response and discriminate plant status. The approach was preliminary evaluated on a data set collected on durum wheat plants grown under different nitrogen (N stress levels. Hyperspectral measurements were performed at anthesis through a high resolution field spectroradiometer, ASD FieldSpec HandHeld, covering the 325-1075 nm region. Reflectance data were first restricted to the interval 510-1000 nm and then divided into five bands of the electromagnetic spectrum [green: 510-580 nm; yellow: 581-630 nm; red: 631-690 nm; red-edge: 705-770 nm; near-infrared (NIR: 771-1000 nm]. PCA was applied to each spectral interval. CDA was performed on the extracted components to identify the factors maximizing the differences among plants fertilised with increasing N rates. Within the intervals of green, yellow and red only the first principal component (PC had an eigenvalue greater than 1 and explained more than 95% of total variance; within the ranges of red-edge and NIR, the first two PCs had an eigenvalue higher than 1. Two canonical variables explained cumulatively more than 81% of total variance and the first was able to discriminate wheat plants differently fertilised, as confirmed also by the significant correlation with aboveground biomass and grain yield parameters. The combined

  13. Evaluation of stability of k-means cluster ensembles with respect to random initialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuncheva, Ludmila I; Vetrov, Dmitry P

    2006-11-01

    Many clustering algorithms, including cluster ensembles, rely on a random component. Stability of the results across different runs is considered to be an asset of the algorithm. The cluster ensembles considered here are based on k-means clusterers. Each clusterer is assigned a random target number of clusters, k and is started from a random initialization. Here, we use 10 artificial and 10 real data sets to study ensemble stability with respect to random k, and random initialization. The data sets were chosen to have a small number of clusters (two to seven) and a moderate number of data points (up to a few hundred). Pairwise stability is defined as the adjusted Rand index between pairs of clusterers in the ensemble, averaged across all pairs. Nonpairwise stability is defined as the entropy of the consensus matrix of the ensemble. An experimental comparison with the stability of the standard k-means algorithm was carried out for k from 2 to 20. The results revealed that ensembles are generally more stable, markedly so for larger k. To establish whether stability can serve as a cluster validity index, we first looked at the relationship between stability and accuracy with respect to the number of clusters, k. We found that such a relationship strongly depends on the data set, varying from almost perfect positive correlation (0.97, for the glass data) to almost perfect negative correlation (-0.93, for the crabs data). We propose a new combined stability index to be the sum of the pairwise individual and ensemble stabilities. This index was found to correlate better with the ensemble accuracy. Following the hypothesis that a point of stability of a clustering algorithm corresponds to a structure found in the data, we used the stability measures to pick the number of clusters. The combined stability index gave best results.

  14. Comet Methy-sens and DNMTs transcriptional analysis as a combined approach in epigenotoxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessio Perotti

    2015-05-01

    In conclusion, our data demonstrate that Comet Methy-sens, in combination with the analysis of transcriptional levels of DNA methyl transferases, represents a simple and multifunctional approach to implement biomonitoring studies on epigenotoxicological effects of known and unknown xenobiotics.

  15. Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xian-Zhi

    2016-01-01

    Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula. (paper)

  16. Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xian-Zhi

    2016-02-01

    Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula.

  17. A Fuzzy Integral Ensemble Method in Visual P300 Brain-Computer Interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cavrini

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the possibility of application of combination of classifiers using fuzzy measures and integrals to Brain-Computer Interface (BCI based on electroencephalography. In particular, we present an ensemble method that can be applied to a variety of systems and evaluate it in the context of a visual P300-based BCI. Offline analysis of data relative to 5 subjects lets us argue that the proposed classification strategy is suitable for BCI. Indeed, the achieved performance is significantly greater than the average of the base classifiers and, broadly speaking, similar to that of the best one. Thus the proposed methodology allows realizing systems that can be used by different subjects without the need for a preliminary configuration phase in which the best classifier for each user has to be identified. Moreover, the ensemble is often capable of detecting uncertain situations and turning them from misclassifications into abstentions, thereby improving the level of safety in BCI for environmental or device control.

  18. μ-PIV measurements of the ensemble flow fields surrounding a migrating semi-infinite bubble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Eiichiro; Smith, Bradford J; Gaver, Donald P

    2009-08-01

    Microscale particle image velocimetry (μ-PIV) measurements of ensemble flow fields surrounding a steadily-migrating semi-infinite bubble through the novel adaptation of a computer controlled linear motor flow control system. The system was programmed to generate a square wave velocity input in order to produce accurate constant bubble propagation repeatedly and effectively through a fused glass capillary tube. We present a novel technique for re-positioning of the coordinate axis to the bubble tip frame of reference in each instantaneous field through the analysis of the sudden change of standard deviation of centerline velocity profiles across the bubble interface. Ensemble averages were then computed in this bubble tip frame of reference. Combined fluid systems of water/air, glycerol/air, and glycerol/Si-oil were used to investigate flows comparable to computational simulations described in Smith and Gaver (2008) and to past experimental observations of interfacial shape. Fluorescent particle images were also analyzed to measure the residual film thickness trailing behind the bubble. The flow fields and film thickness agree very well with the computational simulations as well as existing experimental and analytical results. Particle accumulation and migration associated with the flow patterns near the bubble tip after long experimental durations are discussed as potential sources of error in the experimental method.

  19. μ-PIV measurements of the ensemble flow fields surrounding a migrating semi-infinite bubble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Eiichiro; Smith, Bradford J.; Gaver, Donald P.

    2012-01-01

    Microscale particle image velocimetry (μ-PIV) measurements of ensemble flow fields surrounding a steadily-migrating semi-infinite bubble through the novel adaptation of a computer controlled linear motor flow control system. The system was programmed to generate a square wave velocity input in order to produce accurate constant bubble propagation repeatedly and effectively through a fused glass capillary tube. We present a novel technique for re-positioning of the coordinate axis to the bubble tip frame of reference in each instantaneous field through the analysis of the sudden change of standard deviation of centerline velocity profiles across the bubble interface. Ensemble averages were then computed in this bubble tip frame of reference. Combined fluid systems of water/air, glycerol/air, and glycerol/Si-oil were used to investigate flows comparable to computational simulations described in Smith and Gaver (2008) and to past experimental observations of interfacial shape. Fluorescent particle images were also analyzed to measure the residual film thickness trailing behind the bubble. The flow fields and film thickness agree very well with the computational simulations as well as existing experimental and analytical results. Particle accumulation and migration associated with the flow patterns near the bubble tip after long experimental durations are discussed as potential sources of error in the experimental method. PMID:23049158

  20. Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendan Chambers

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches. Mapping the routing of spikes through local circuitry is crucial for understanding neocortical computation. Under appropriate experimental conditions, these maps can be used to infer likely patterns of synaptic recruitment, linking activity to underlying anatomical connections. Such inferences help to reveal the synaptic implementation of population dynamics and computation. We compare a number of standard functional measures to infer underlying connectivity. We find that regularization impacts measures

  1. Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokohata, Tokuta [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Annan, James D.; Hargreaves, Julia C. [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Collins, Matthew [University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter (United Kingdom); Jackson, Charles S.; Tobis, Michael [The University of Texas at Austin, Institute of Geophysics, 10100 Burnet Rd., ROC-196, Mail Code R2200, Austin, TX (United States); Webb, Mark J. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2012-08-15

    The performance of several state-of-the-art climate model ensembles, including two multi-model ensembles (MMEs) and four structurally different (perturbed parameter) single model ensembles (SMEs), are investigated for the first time using the rank histogram approach. In this method, the reliability of a model ensemble is evaluated from the point of view of whether the observations can be regarded as being sampled from the ensemble. Our analysis reveals that, in the MMEs, the climate variables we investigated are broadly reliable on the global scale, with a tendency towards overdispersion. On the other hand, in the SMEs, the reliability differs depending on the ensemble and variable field considered. In general, the mean state and historical trend of surface air temperature, and mean state of precipitation are reliable in the SMEs. However, variables such as sea level pressure or top-of-atmosphere clear-sky shortwave radiation do not cover a sufficiently wide range in some. It is not possible to assess whether this is a fundamental feature of SMEs generated with particular model, or a consequence of the algorithm used to select and perturb the values of the parameters. As under-dispersion is a potentially more serious issue when using ensembles to make projections, we recommend the application of rank histograms to assess reliability when designing and running perturbed physics SMEs. (orig.)

  2. Identification of drug combinations administered by continuous subcutaneous infusion that require analysis for compatibility and stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Andrew; Bickerstaff, Matthew; Jackson, Richard; Schneider, Jennifer; Mason, Stephen; Ellershaw, John

    2017-03-23

    A continuous subcutaneous infusion (CSCI) delivered via syringe pump is a method of drug administration used to maintain symptom control when a patient is no longer able to tolerate oral medication. Several classes of drugs, such as opioids, antiemetics, anticholinergics, antipsychotics and benzodiazepines are routinely administered by CSCI alone or in combinations. Previous studies attempting to identify the most-common CSCI combinations are now several years old and no longer reflect current clinical practice. The aim of this work was to review current clinical practice and identify CSCI drug combinations requiring analysis for chemical compatibility and stability. UK pharmacy professionals involved in the delivery of care to palliative patients in hospitals and hospices were invited to enter CSCI combinations comprised of two or more drugs onto an electronic database over a 12-month period. In addition, a separate Delphi study with a panel of 15 expert healthcare professionals was completed to identify a maximum of five combinations of drugs used to treat more complex, but less commonly encountered symptoms unlikely to be identified by the national survey. A total of 57 individuals representing 33 separate palliative care services entered 1,945 drug combinations suitable for analysis, with 278 discrete combinations identified. The top 40 drug combinations represented nearly two-thirds of combinations recorded. A total of 23 different drugs were administered in combination and the median number of drugs in a combination was three. The Delphi study identified five combinations for the relief of complex or refractory symptoms. This study represents the first step towards developing authoritative national guidance on the administration of drugs by CSCI. Further work will ensure healthcare practitioners have the knowledge and confidence that a prescribed combination will be both safe and efficacious.

  3. Direct Correlation of Cell Toxicity to Conformational Ensembles of Genetic Aβ Variants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Somavarapu, Arun Kumar; Kepp, Kasper Planeta

    2015-01-01

    We report a systematic analysis of conformational ensembles generated from multiseed molecular dynamics simulations of all 15 known genetic variants of Aβ42. We show that experimentally determined variant toxicities are largely explained by random coil content of the amyloid ensembles (correlatio...

  4. Application of an Ensemble Kalman filter to a 1-D coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model of the Ligurian Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenartz, F.; Raick, C.; Soetaert, K.E.R.; Grégoire, M.

    2007-01-01

    The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been applied to a 1-D complex ecosystem model coupled with a hydrodynamic model of the Ligurian Sea. In order to improve the performance of the EnKF, an ensemble subsampling strategy has been used to better represent the covariance matrices and a pre-analysis

  5. HIPPI: highly accurate protein family classification with ensembles of HMMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nam-phuong Nguyen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Given a new biological sequence, detecting membership in a known family is a basic step in many bioinformatics analyses, with applications to protein structure and function prediction and metagenomic taxon identification and abundance profiling, among others. Yet family identification of sequences that are distantly related to sequences in public databases or that are fragmentary remains one of the more difficult analytical problems in bioinformatics. Results We present a new technique for family identification called HIPPI (Hierarchical Profile Hidden Markov Models for Protein family Identification. HIPPI uses a novel technique to represent a multiple sequence alignment for a given protein family or superfamily by an ensemble of profile hidden Markov models computed using HMMER. An evaluation of HIPPI on the Pfam database shows that HIPPI has better overall precision and recall than blastp, HMMER, and pipelines based on HHsearch, and maintains good accuracy even for fragmentary query sequences and for protein families with low average pairwise sequence identity, both conditions where other methods degrade in accuracy. Conclusion HIPPI provides accurate protein family identification and is robust to difficult model conditions. Our results, combined with observations from previous studies, show that ensembles of profile Hidden Markov models can better represent multiple sequence alignments than a single profile Hidden Markov model, and thus can improve downstream analyses for various bioinformatic tasks. Further research is needed to determine the best practices for building the ensemble of profile Hidden Markov models. HIPPI is available on GitHub at https://github.com/smirarab/sepp .

  6. Combining pixel and object based image analysis of ultra-high resolution multibeam bathymetry and backscatter for habitat mapping in shallow marine waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ierodiaconou, Daniel; Schimel, Alexandre C. G.; Kennedy, David; Monk, Jacquomo; Gaylard, Grace; Young, Mary; Diesing, Markus; Rattray, Alex

    2018-06-01

    Habitat mapping data are increasingly being recognised for their importance in underpinning marine spatial planning. The ability to collect ultra-high resolution (cm) multibeam echosounder (MBES) data in shallow waters has facilitated understanding of the fine-scale distribution of benthic habitats in these areas that are often prone to human disturbance. Developing quantitative and objective approaches to integrate MBES data with ground observations for predictive modelling is essential for ensuring repeatability and providing confidence measures for habitat mapping products. Whilst supervised classification approaches are becoming more common, users are often faced with a decision whether to implement a pixel based (PB) or an object based (OB) image analysis approach, with often limited understanding of the potential influence of that decision on final map products and relative importance of data inputs to patterns observed. In this study, we apply an ensemble learning approach capable of integrating PB and OB Image Analysis from ultra-high resolution MBES bathymetry and backscatter data for mapping benthic habitats in Refuge Cove, a temperate coastal embayment in south-east Australia. We demonstrate the relative importance of PB and OB seafloor derivatives for the five broad benthic habitats that dominate the site. We found that OB and PB approaches performed well with differences in classification accuracy but not discernible statistically. However, a model incorporating elements of both approaches proved to be significantly more accurate than OB or PB methods alone and demonstrate the benefits of using MBES bathymetry and backscatter combined for class discrimination.

  7. A general model for preload calculation and stiffness analysis for combined angular contact ball bearings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinhua; Fang, Bin; Hong, Jun; Wan, Shaoke; Zhu, Yongsheng

    2017-12-01

    The combined angular contact ball bearings are widely used in automatic, aerospace and machine tools, but few researches on the combined angular contact ball bearings have been reported. It is shown that the preload and stiffness of combined bearings are mutual influenced rather than simply the superposition of multiple single bearing, therefore the characteristic calculation of combined bearings achieved by coupling the load and deformation analysis of a single bearing. In this paper, based on the Jones quasi-static model and stiffness analytical model, a new iterative algorithm and model are proposed for the calculation of combined bearings preload and stiffness, and the dynamic effects include centrifugal force and gyroscopic moment have to be considered. It is demonstrated that the new method has general applicability, the preload factors of combined bearings are calculated according to the different design preloads, and the static and dynamic stiffness for various arrangements of combined bearings are comparatively studied and analyzed, and the influences of the design preload magnitude, axial load and rotating speed are discussed in detail. Besides, the change rule of dynamic contact angles of combined bearings with respect to the rotating speed is also discussed. The results show that bearing arrangement modes, rotating speed and design preload magnitude have a significant influence on the preload and stiffness of combined bearings. The proposed formulation provides a useful tool in dynamic analysis of the complex bearing-rotor system.

  8. Ensemble Weight Enumerators for Protograph LDPC Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divsalar, Dariush

    2006-01-01

    Recently LDPC codes with projected graph, or protograph structures have been proposed. In this paper, finite length ensemble weight enumerators for LDPC codes with protograph structures are obtained. Asymptotic results are derived as the block size goes to infinity. In particular we are interested in obtaining ensemble average weight enumerators for protograph LDPC codes which have minimum distance that grows linearly with block size. As with irregular ensembles, linear minimum distance property is sensitive to the proportion of degree-2 variable nodes. In this paper the derived results on ensemble weight enumerators show that linear minimum distance condition on degree distribution of unstructured irregular LDPC codes is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for protograph LDPC codes.

  9. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, X.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2012-01-01

    Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work

  10. Ensemble Machine Learning Methods and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Yunqian

    2012-01-01

    It is common wisdom that gathering a variety of views and inputs improves the process of decision making, and, indeed, underpins a democratic society. Dubbed “ensemble learning” by researchers in computational intelligence and machine learning, it is known to improve a decision system’s robustness and accuracy. Now, fresh developments are allowing researchers to unleash the power of ensemble learning in an increasing range of real-world applications. Ensemble learning algorithms such as “boosting” and “random forest” facilitate solutions to key computational issues such as face detection and are now being applied in areas as diverse as object trackingand bioinformatics.   Responding to a shortage of literature dedicated to the topic, this volume offers comprehensive coverage of state-of-the-art ensemble learning techniques, including various contributions from researchers in leading industrial research labs. At once a solid theoretical study and a practical guide, the volume is a windfall for r...

  11. AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya

    2016-05-01

    Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree.

  12. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function

  13. A new deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter with one-step-ahead smoothing for storm surge forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Raboudi, Naila

    2016-11-01

    The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a popular data assimilation method for state-parameter estimation. Following a sequential assimilation strategy, it breaks the problem into alternating cycles of forecast and analysis steps. In the forecast step, the dynamical model is used to integrate a stochastic sample approximating the state analysis distribution (called analysis ensemble) to obtain a forecast ensemble. In the analysis step, the forecast ensemble is updated with the incoming observation using a Kalman-like correction, which is then used for the next forecast step. In realistic large-scale applications, EnKFs are implemented with limited ensembles, and often poorly known model errors statistics, leading to a crude approximation of the forecast covariance. This strongly limits the filter performance. Recently, a new EnKF was proposed in [1] following a one-step-ahead smoothing strategy (EnKF-OSA), which involves an OSA smoothing of the state between two successive analysis. At each time step, EnKF-OSA exploits the observation twice. The incoming observation is first used to smooth the ensemble at the previous time step. The resulting smoothed ensemble is then integrated forward to compute a "pseudo forecast" ensemble, which is again updated with the same observation. The idea of constraining the state with future observations is to add more information in the estimation process in order to mitigate for the sub-optimal character of EnKF-like methods. The second EnKF-OSA "forecast" is computed from the smoothed ensemble and should therefore provide an improved background. In this work, we propose a deterministic variant of the EnKF-OSA, based on the Singular Evolutive Interpolated Ensemble Kalman (SEIK) filter. The motivation behind this is to avoid the observations perturbations of the EnKF in order to improve the scheme\\'s behavior when assimilating big data sets with small ensembles. The new SEIK-OSA scheme is implemented and its efficiency is demonstrated

  14. A multi-stage intelligent approach based on an ensemble of two-way interaction model for forecasting the global horizontal radiation of India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, He; Dong, Yao; Xiao, Ling

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Ensemble learning system is proposed to forecast the global solar radiation. • LASSO is utilized as feature selection method for subset model. • GSO is used to select the weight vector aggregating the response of subset model. • A simple and efficient algorithm is designed based on thresholding function. • Theoretical analysis focusing on error rate is provided. - Abstract: Forecasting of effective solar irradiation has developed a huge interest in recent decades, mainly due to its various applications in grid connect photovoltaic installations. This paper develops and investigates an ensemble learning based multistage intelligent approach to forecast 5 days global horizontal radiation at four given locations of India. The two-way interaction model is considered with purpose of detecting the associated correlation between the features. The main structure of the novel method is the ensemble learning, which is based on Divide and Conquer principle, is applied to enhance the forecasting accuracy and model stability. An efficient feature selection method LASSO is performed in the input space with the regularization parameter selected by Cross-Validation. A weight vector which best represents the importance of each individual model in ensemble system is provided by glowworm swarm optimization. The combination of feature selection and parameter selection are helpful in creating the diversity of the ensemble learning. In order to illustrate the validity of the proposed method, the datasets at four different locations of the India are split into training and test datasets. The results of the real data experiments demonstrate the efficiency and efficacy of the proposed method comparing with other competitors.

  15. Sequential Ensembles Tolerant to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR Soil Moisture Retrieval Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Hyoung Lee

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to complicated and undefined systematic errors in satellite observation, data assimilation integrating model states with satellite observations is more complicated than field measurements-based data assimilation at a local scale. In the case of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR soil moisture, the systematic errors arising from uncertainties in roughness conditions are significant and unavoidable, but current satellite bias correction methods do not resolve the problems very well. Thus, apart from the bias correction process of satellite observation, it is important to assess the inherent capability of satellite data assimilation in such sub-optimal but more realistic observational error conditions. To this end, time-evolving sequential ensembles of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF is compared with stationary ensemble of the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI scheme that does not evolve the ensembles over time. As the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the surface roughness is more sensitive to the SAR retrievals than measurement errors, it is a scope of this study to monitor how data assimilation alters the effects of roughness on SAR soil moisture retrievals. In results, two data assimilation schemes all provided intermediate values between SAR overestimation, and model underestimation. However, under the same SAR observational error conditions, the sequential ensembles approached a calibrated model showing the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, while the stationary ensemble converged towards the SAR observations exhibiting the highest RMSE. As compared to stationary ensembles, sequential ensembles have a better tolerance to SAR retrieval errors. Such inherent nature of EnKF suggests an operational merit as a satellite data assimilation system, due to the limitation of bias correction methods currently available.

  16. An Organic Computing Approach to Self-organising Robot Ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Albrecht von Mammen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Autonomous Computing initiative, that has mainly been advancing techniques for self-optimisation focussing on computing systems and infrastructures, Organic Computing (OC has been driving the development of system design concepts and algorithms for self-adaptive systems at large. Examples of application domains include, for instance, traffic management and control, cloud services, communication protocols, and robotic systems. Such an OC system typically consists of a potentially large set of autonomous and self-managed entities, where each entity acts with a local decision horizon. By means of cooperation of the individual entities, the behaviour of the entire ensemble system is derived. In this article, we present our work on how autonomous, adaptive robot ensembles can benefit from OC technology. Our elaborations are aligned with the different layers of an observer/controller framework which provides the foundation for the individuals' adaptivity at system design-level. Relying on an extended Learning Classifier System (XCS in combination with adequate simulation techniques, this basic system design empowers robot individuals to improve their individual and collaborative performances, e.g. by means of adapting to changing goals and conditions.Not only for the sake of generalisability, but also because of its enormous transformative potential, we stage our research in the domain of robot ensembles that are typically comprised of several quad-rotors and that organise themselves to fulfil spatial tasks such as maintenance of building facades or the collaborative search for mobile targets. Our elaborations detail the architectural concept, provide examples of individual self-optimisation as well as of the optimisation of collaborative efforts, and we show how the user can control the ensembles at multiple levels of abstraction. We conclude with a summary of our approach and an outlook on possible future steps.

  17. Ensemble streamflow assimilation with the National Water Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafieeinasab, A.; McCreight, J. L.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Gochis, D.

    2017-12-01

    Through case studies of flooding across the US, we compare the performance of the National Water Model (NWM) data assimilation (DA) scheme to that of a newly implemented ensemble Kalman filter approach. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) is an operational implementation of the community WRF-Hydro modeling system. As of August 2016, the NWM forecasts of distributed hydrologic states and fluxes (including soil moisture, snowpack, ET, and ponded water) over the contiguous United States have been publicly disseminated by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) . It also provides streamflow forecasts at more than 2.7 million river reaches up to 30 days in advance. The NWM employs a nudging scheme to assimilate more than 6,000 USGS streamflow observations and provide initial conditions for its forecasts. A problem with nudging is how the forecasts relax quickly to open-loop bias in the forecast. This has been partially addressed by an experimental bias correction approach which was found to have issues with phase errors during flooding events. In this work, we present an ensemble streamflow data assimilation approach combining new channel-only capabilities of the NWM and HydroDART (a coupling of the offline WRF-Hydro model and NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed; DART). Our approach focuses on the single model state of discharge and incorporates error distributions on channel-influxes (overland and groundwater) in the assimilation via an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In order to avoid filter degeneracy associated with a limited number of ensemble at large scale, DART's covariance inflation (Anderson, 2009) and localization capabilities are implemented and evaluated. The current NWM data assimilation scheme is compared to preliminary results from the EnKF application for several flooding case studies across the US.

  18. Polarized ensembles of random pure states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunden, Fabio Deelan; Facchi, Paolo; Florio, Giuseppe

    2013-01-01

    A new family of polarized ensembles of random pure states is presented. These ensembles are obtained by linear superposition of two random pure states with suitable distributions, and are quite manageable. We will use the obtained results for two purposes: on the one hand we will be able to derive an efficient strategy for sampling states from isopurity manifolds. On the other, we will characterize the deviation of a pure quantum state from separability under the influence of noise. (paper)

  19. Polarized ensembles of random pure states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deelan Cunden, Fabio; Facchi, Paolo; Florio, Giuseppe

    2013-08-01

    A new family of polarized ensembles of random pure states is presented. These ensembles are obtained by linear superposition of two random pure states with suitable distributions, and are quite manageable. We will use the obtained results for two purposes: on the one hand we will be able to derive an efficient strategy for sampling states from isopurity manifolds. On the other, we will characterize the deviation of a pure quantum state from separability under the influence of noise.

  20. Quark ensembles with infinite correlation length

    OpenAIRE

    Molodtsov, S. V.; Zinovjev, G. M.

    2014-01-01

    By studying quark ensembles with infinite correlation length we formulate the quantum field theory model that, as we show, is exactly integrable and develops an instability of its standard vacuum ensemble (the Dirac sea). We argue such an instability is rooted in high ground state degeneracy (for 'realistic' space-time dimensions) featuring a fairly specific form of energy distribution, and with the cutoff parameter going to infinity this inherent energy distribution becomes infinitely narrow...

  1. Orbital magnetism in ensembles of ballistic billiards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullmo, D.; Richter, K.; Jalabert, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    The magnetic response of ensembles of small two-dimensional structures at finite temperatures is calculated. Using semiclassical methods and numerical calculation it is demonstrated that only short classical trajectories are relevant. The magnetic susceptibility is enhanced in regular systems, where these trajectories appear in families. For ensembles of squares large paramagnetic susceptibility is obtained, in good agreement with recent measurements in the ballistic regime. (authors). 20 refs., 2 figs

  2. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    OpenAIRE

    S. Roh; M. Jun; I. Szunyogh; M. G. Genton

    2015-01-01

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of ...

  3. Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

  4. Optimum design and thermodynamic analysis of a gas turbine and ORC combined cycle with recuperators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Yue; Gao, Yike; Zheng, Ya; Dai, Yiping

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A GT-ORC combined cycle with recuperators was designed. • The effect of the ORC turbine inlet pressure on the combined cycle was examined. • Toluene was a more suitable working fluid for the GT-ORC combined cycle. • The GT-ORC combined cycle performed better than the GT-Rankine combined cycle. • The sensitivity analysis to the ambient temperature was completed. - Abstract: Gas turbines are widely used in distributed power generation because of their high efficiency, low pollution and low operational cost. To further utilize the waste heat from gas turbines, an organic Rankine cycle (ORC) was proposed as the bottoming cycle for gas turbines in this paper. Two recuperators were coupled with the combined cycle to increase the thermal efficiency, and aromatics were chosen as the working fluid for the bottoming cycle. This paper focused on the optimum design and thermodynamic analysis of the gas turbine and ORC (GT-ORC) combined cycle. Results showed that the net power and thermal efficiency of the ORC increased with the ORC turbine inlet pressure and achieved optimum values at a specific pressure based on the optimum criteria. Furthermore, compared with the GT-Rankine combined cycle, the GT-ORC combined cycle had better thermodynamic performance. Toluene was a more suitable working fluid for the GT-ORC combined cycle. Moreover, ambient temperature sensitivity simulations concluded that the GT-ORC combined cycle had a maximum thermal efficiency and the combined cycle net power was mainly determined by the topping gas turbine cycle.

  5. A square root ensemble Kalman filter application to a motor-imagery brain-computer interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamrunnahar, M; Schiff, S J

    2011-01-01

    We here investigated a non-linear ensemble Kalman filter (SPKF) application to a motor imagery brain computer interface (BCI). A square root central difference Kalman filter (SR-CDKF) was used as an approach for brain state estimation in motor imagery task performance, using scalp electroencephalography (EEG) signals. Healthy human subjects imagined left vs. right hand movements and tongue vs. bilateral toe movements while scalp EEG signals were recorded. Offline data analysis was conducted for training the model as well as for decoding the imagery movements. Preliminary results indicate the feasibility of this approach with a decoding accuracy of 78%-90% for the hand movements and 70%-90% for the tongue-toes movements. Ongoing research includes online BCI applications of this approach as well as combined state and parameter estimation using this algorithm with different system dynamic models.

  6. Current path in light emitting diodes based on nanowire ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limbach, F; Hauswald, C; Lähnemann, J; Wölz, M; Brandt, O; Trampert, A; Hanke, M; Jahn, U; Calarco, R; Geelhaar, L; Riechert, H

    2012-01-01

    Light emitting diodes (LEDs) have been fabricated using ensembles of free-standing (In, Ga)N/GaN nanowires (NWs) grown on Si substrates in the self-induced growth mode by molecular beam epitaxy. Electron-beam-induced current analysis, cathodoluminescence as well as biased μ-photoluminescence spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and electrical measurements indicate that the electroluminescence of such LEDs is governed by the differences in the individual current densities of the single-NW LEDs operated in parallel, i.e. by the inhomogeneity of the current path in the ensemble LED. In addition, the optoelectronic characterization leads to the conclusion that these NWs exhibit N-polarity and that the (In, Ga)N quantum well states in the NWs are subject to a non-vanishing quantum confined Stark effect. (paper)

  7. Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Inhye; Lee, Jiyeong; Saro, Lee

    2014-06-01

    Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.

  8. Rotationally invariant family of Levy-like random matrix ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jinmyung; Muttalib, K A

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a family of rotationally invariant random matrix ensembles characterized by a parameter λ. While λ = 1 corresponds to well-known critical ensembles, we show that λ ≠ 1 describes 'Levy-like' ensembles, characterized by power-law eigenvalue densities. For λ > 1 the density is bounded, as in Gaussian ensembles, but λ < 1 describes ensembles characterized by densities with long tails. In particular, the model allows us to evaluate, in terms of a novel family of orthogonal polynomials, the eigenvalue correlations for Levy-like ensembles. These correlations differ qualitatively from those in either the Gaussian or the critical ensembles. (fast track communication)

  9. Examining Combinations of Social Physique Anxiety and Motivation Regulations Using Latent Profile Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullrich-French, Sarah; Cox, Anne E.; Cooper, Brittany Rhoades

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has used cluster analysis to examine how social physique anxiety (SPA) combines with motivation in physical education. This study utilized a more advanced analytic approach, latent profile analysis (LPA), to identify profiles of SPA and motivation regulations. Students in grades 9-12 (N = 298) completed questionnaires at two time…

  10. Thermo-economic analysis of combined power plants with changing economic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bidini, G.; Desideri, U.; Facchini, B.

    1991-01-01

    A method of thermo-economic analysis for the choice of optimal thermodynamic parameters of steam bottoming cycles in combined cycle power plants is presented. By keeping the thermodynamic aspects separated from the economic aspects, this method allows designers to easily perform a sensitivity analysis of the change in the economic parameters

  11. Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Weiss-Motz, Alexander; Martina, Mario L. V.; Kreibich, Heidi

    2018-05-01

    Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.

  12. Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Pfeifer

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate signal maps can be used to identify regions where robust climate changes can be derived from an ensemble of climate change simulations. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Climate signal maps do not show all information available from the model ensemble, but give a condensed view in order to be useful for non-climate scientists who have to assess climate change impact during the course of their work. Three different ensembles of regional climate projections have been analyzed regarding changes of seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (defined as the number of days exceeding the 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation for Germany, using climate signal maps. Although the models used and the scenario assumptions differ for the three ensembles (representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 vs. RCP8.5 vs. A1B, some similarities in the projections of future seasonal and extreme precipitation can be seen. For the winter season, both mean and extreme precipitation are projected to increase. The strength, robustness and regional pattern of this increase, however, depends on the ensemble. For summer, a robust decrease of mean precipitation can be detected only for small regions in southwestern Germany and only from two of the three ensembles, whereas none of them projects a robust increase of summer extreme precipitation.

  13. Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikola Simidjievski

    Full Text Available Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting, significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.

  14. Verification of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of wind speed against analyses and observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Hagedorn, Renate

    2012-01-01

    A framework for the verification of ensemble forecasts of near-surface wind speed is described. It is based on existing scores and diagnostic tools, though considering observations from synoptic stations as reference instead of the analysis. This approach is motivated by the idea of having a user......-oriented view of verification, for instance with the wind power applications in mind. The verification framework is specifically applied to the case of ECMWF ensemble forecasts and over Europe. Dynamic climatologies are derived at the various stations, serving as a benchmark. The impact of observational...... uncertainty on scores and diagnostic tools is also considered. The interest of this framework is demonstrated from its application to the routine evaluation of ensemble forecasts and to the assessment of the quality improvements brought in by the recent change in horizontal resolution of the ECMWF ensemble...

  15. Identification and analysis of external event combinations for Hanhikivi 1PRA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helander, Juho [Fennovoima Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

    2017-03-15

    Fennovoima's nuclear power plant, Hanhikivi 1, Pyhäjoki, Finland, is currently in design phase, and its construction is scheduled to begin in 2018 and electricity production in 2024. The objective of this paper is to produce a preliminary list of safety-significant external event combinations including preliminary probability estimates, to be used in the probabilistic risk assessment of Hanhikivi 1 plant. Starting from the list of relevant single events, the relevant event combinations are identified based on seasonal variation, preconditions related to different events, and dependencies (fundamental and cascade type) between events. Using this method yields 30 relevant event combinations of two events for the Hanhikivi site. The preliminary probability of each combination is evaluated, and event combinations with extremely low probability are excluded from further analysis. Event combinations of three or more events are identified by adding possible events to the remaining combinations of two events. Finally, 10 relevant combinations of two events and three relevant combinations of three events remain. The results shall be considered preliminary and will be updated after evaluating more detailed effects of different events on plant safety.

  16. MANAGEMENT AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DATASET ENSEMBLES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geveci, Berk [Senior Director, Scientific Computing

    2010-05-17

    The primary Phase I technical objective was to develop a prototype that demonstrates the functionality of all components required for an end-to-end meta-data management and comparative visualization system.

  17. Parametric analysis and optimization for a combined power and refrigeration cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jiangfeng; Dai Yiping; Gao Lin

    2008-01-01

    A combined power and refrigeration cycle is proposed, which combines the Rankine cycle and the absorption refrigeration cycle. This combined cycle uses a binary ammonia-water mixture as the working fluid and produces both power output and refrigeration output simultaneously with only one heat source. A parametric analysis is conducted to evaluate the effects of thermodynamic parameters on the performance of the combined cycle. It is shown that heat source temperature, environment temperature, refrigeration temperature, turbine inlet pressure, turbine inlet temperature, and basic solution ammonia concentration have significant effects on the net power output, refrigeration output and exergy efficiency of the combined cycle. A parameter optimization is achieved by means of genetic algorithm to reach the maximum exergy efficiency. The optimized exergy efficiency is 43.06% under the given condition

  18. Parametric analysis for a new combined power and ejector-absorption refrigeration cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jiangfeng; Dai Yiping; Zhang Taiyong; Ma Shaolin

    2009-01-01

    A new combined power and ejector-absorption refrigeration cycle is proposed, which combines the Rankine cycle and the ejector-absorption refrigeration cycle, and could produce both power output and refrigeration output simultaneously. This combined cycle, which originates from the cycle proposed by authors previously, introduces an ejector between the rectifier and the condenser, and provides a performance improvement without greatly increasing the complexity of the system. A parametric analysis is conducted to evaluate the effects of the key thermodynamic parameters on the cycle performance. It is shown that heat source temperature, condenser temperature, evaporator temperature, turbine inlet pressure, turbine inlet temperature, and basic solution ammonia concentration have significant effects on the net power output, refrigeration output and exergy efficiency of the combined cycle. It is evident that the ejector can improve the performance of the combined cycle proposed by authors previously.

  19. Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

    KAUST Repository

    Toye, Habib

    2017-05-26

    We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

  20. A unified MGF-based capacity analysis of diversity combiners over generalized fading channels

    KAUST Repository

    Yilmaz, Ferkan

    2012-03-01

    Unified exact ergodic capacity results for L-branch coherent diversity combiners including equal-gain combining (EGC) and maximal-ratio combining (MRC) are not known. This paper develops a novel generic framework for the capacity analysis of L-branch EGC/MRC over generalized fading channels. The framework is used to derive new results for the gamma-shadowed generalized Nakagami-m fading model which can be a suitable model for the fading environments encountered by high frequency (60 GHz and above) communications. The mathematical formalism is illustrated with some selected numerical and simulation results confirming the correctness of our newly proposed framework. © 2012 IEEE.

  1. Comparative performance analysis of combined-cycle pulse detonation turbofan engines (PDTEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudip Bhattrai

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Combined-cycle pulse detonation engines are promising contenders for hypersonic propulsion systems. In the present study, design and propulsive performance analysis of combined-cycle pulse detonation turbofan engines (PDTEs is presented. Analysis is done with respect to Mach number at two consecutive modes of operation: (1 Combined-cycle PDTE using a pulse detonation afterburner mode (PDA-mode and (2 combined-cycle PDTE in pulse detonation ramjet engine mode (PDRE-mode. The performance of combined-cycle PDTEs is compared with baseline afterburning turbofan and ramjet engines. The comparison of afterburning modes is done for Mach numbers from 0 to 3 at 15.24 km altitude conditions, while that of pulse detonation ramjet engine (PDRE is done for Mach 1.5 to Mach 6 at 18.3 km altitude conditions. The analysis shows that the propulsive performance of a turbine engine can be greatly improved by replacing the conventional afterburner with a pulse detonation afterburner (PDA. The PDRE also outperforms its ramjet counterpart at all flight conditions considered herein. The gains obtained are outstanding for both the combined-cycle PDTE modes compared to baseline turbofan and ramjet engines.

  2. Wang-Landau Reaction Ensemble Method: Simulation of Weak Polyelectrolytes and General Acid-Base Reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsgesell, Jonas; Holm, Christian; Smiatek, Jens

    2017-02-14

    We present a novel method for the study of weak polyelectrolytes and general acid-base reactions in molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. The approach combines the advantages of the reaction ensemble and the Wang-Landau sampling method. Deprotonation and protonation reactions are simulated explicitly with the help of the reaction ensemble method, while the accurate sampling of the corresponding phase space is achieved by the Wang-Landau approach. The combination of both techniques provides a sufficient statistical accuracy such that meaningful estimates for the density of states and the partition sum can be obtained. With regard to these estimates, several thermodynamic observables like the heat capacity or reaction free energies can be calculated. We demonstrate that the computation times for the calculation of titration curves with a high statistical accuracy can be significantly decreased when compared to the original reaction ensemble method. The applicability of our approach is validated by the study of weak polyelectrolytes and their thermodynamic properties.

  3. Dispersion Modeling Using Ensemble Forecasts Compared to ETEX Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straume, Anne Grete; N'dri Koffi, Ernest; Nodop, Katrin

    1998-11-01

    Numerous numerical models are developed to predict long-range transport of hazardous air pollution in connection with accidental releases. When evaluating and improving such a model, it is important to detect uncertainties connected to the meteorological input data. A Lagrangian dispersion model, the Severe Nuclear Accident Program, is used here to investigate the effect of errors in the meteorological input data due to analysis error. An ensemble forecast, produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is then used as model input. The ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the initial meteorological fields of the weather forecast. The perturbations are calculated from singular vectors meant to represent possible forecast developments generated by instabilities in the atmospheric flow during the early part of the forecast. The instabilities are generated by errors in the analyzed fields. Puff predictions from the dispersion model, using ensemble forecast input, are compared, and a large spread in the predicted puff evolutions is found. This shows that the quality of the meteorological input data is important for the success of the dispersion model. In order to evaluate the dispersion model, the calculations are compared with measurements from the European Tracer Experiment. The model manages to predict the measured puff evolution concerning shape and time of arrival to a fairly high extent, up to 60 h after the start of the release. The modeled puff is still too narrow in the advection direction.

  4. Multi-objective optimization for generating a weighted multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.

    2017-12-01

    Many studies have demonstrated that multi-model ensembles generally show better skill than each ensemble member. When generating weighted multi-model ensembles, the first step is measuring the performance of individual model simulations using observations. There is a consensus on the assignment of weighting factors based on a single evaluation metric. When considering only one evaluation metric, the weighting factor for each model is proportional to a performance score or inversely proportional to an error for the model. While this conventional approach can provide appropriate combinations of multiple models, the approach confronts a big challenge when there are multiple metrics under consideration. When considering multiple evaluation metrics, it is obvious that a simple averaging of multiple performance scores or model ranks does not address the trade-off problem between conflicting metrics. So far, there seems to be no best method to generate weighted multi-model ensembles based on multiple performance metrics. The current study applies the multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal trade-off solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to combining multiple performance metrics for the global climate models and their dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over North America and generating a weighted multi-model ensemble. NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) software toolkit are used for assessment of the climate simulations. Overall, the performance of each model differs markedly with strong seasonal dependence. Because of the considerable variability across the climate simulations, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections by assigning optimized weighting factors to the models with relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimally weighted multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than an arithmetic

  5. Stochastic Approaches Within a High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jankov, I.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known that global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident ensemble forecasts. Typical approaches to alleviate this problem include the use of multiple dynamic cores, multiple physics suite configurations, or a combination of the two. While these approaches may produce desirable results, they have practical and theoretical deficiencies and are more difficult and costly to maintain. An active area of research that promotes a more unified and sustainable system is the use of stochastic physics. Stochastic approaches include Stochastic Parameter Perturbations (SPP), Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB), and Stochastic Perturbation of Physics Tendencies (SPPT). The focus of this study is to assess model performance within a convection-permitting ensemble at 3-km grid spacing across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using a variety of stochastic approaches. A single physics suite configuration based on the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model was utilized and ensemble members produced by employing stochastic methods. Parameter perturbations (using SPP) for select fields were employed in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) and Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes. Within MYNN, SPP was applied to sub-grid cloud fraction, mixing length, roughness length, mass fluxes and Prandtl number. In the RUC LSM, SPP was applied to hydraulic conductivity and tested perturbing soil moisture at initial time. First iterative testing was conducted to assess the initial performance of several configuration settings (e.g. variety of spatial and temporal de-correlation lengths). Upon selection of the most promising candidate configurations using SPP, a 10-day time period was run and more robust statistics were gathered. SKEB and SPPT were included in additional retrospective tests to assess the impact of using

  6. Cardiac arrhythmia detection using combination of heart rate variability analyses and PUCK analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahananto, Faizal; Igasaki, Tomohiko; Murayama, Nobuki

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents cardiac arrhythmia detection using the combination of a heart rate variability (HRV) analysis and a "potential of unbalanced complex kinetics" (PUCK) analysis. Detection performance was improved by adding features extracted from the PUCK analysis. Initially, R-R interval data were extracted from the original electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings and were cut into small segments and marked as either normal or arrhythmia. HRV analyses then were conducted using the segmented R-R interval data, including a time-domain analysis, frequency-domain analysis, and nonlinear analysis. In addition to the HRV analysis, PUCK analysis, which has been implemented successfully in a foreign exchange market series to characterize change, was employed. A decision-tree algorithm was applied to all of the obtained features for classification. The proposed method was tested using the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database and had an overall classification accuracy of 91.73%. After combining features obtained from the PUCK analysis, the overall accuracy increased to 92.91%. Therefore, we suggest that the use of a PUCK analysis in conjunction with HRV analysis might improve performance accuracy for the detection of cardiac arrhythmia.

  7. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, A. W.; Thielen, J.; Pappenberger, F.; Schaake, J. C.; Hartman, R. K.

    2012-12-01

    The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment was established in March, 2004, at a workshop hosted by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). With support from the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Commission (EC), the HEPEX goal was to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to advance the understanding and adoption of hydrological ensemble forecasts for decision support in emergency management and water resources sectors. The strategy to meet this goal includes meetings that connect the user, forecast producer and research communities to exchange ideas, data and methods; the coordination of experiments to address specific challenges; and the formation of testbeds to facilitate shared experimentation. HEPEX has organized about a dozen international workshops, as well as sessions at scientific meetings (including AMS, AGU and EGU) and special issues of scientific journals where workshop results have been published. Today, the HEPEX mission is to demonstrate the added value of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) for emergency management and water resources sectors to make decisions that have important consequences for economy, public health, safety, and the environment. HEPEX is now organised around six major themes that represent core elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction enterprise: input and pre-processing, ensemble techniques, data assimilation, post-processing, verification, and communication and use in decision making. This poster presents an overview of recent and planned HEPEX activities, highlighting case studies that exemplify the focus and objectives of HEPEX.

  8. Choice of implant combinations in total hip replacement: systematic review and network meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-López, José A; Humphriss, Rachel L; Beswick, Andrew D; Thom, Howard H Z; Hunt, Linda P; Burston, Amanda; Fawsitt, Christopher G; Hollingworth, William; Higgins, Julian P T; Welton, Nicky J; Blom, Ashley W; Marques, Elsa M R

    2017-11-02

    Objective  To compare the survival of different implant combinations for primary total hip replacement (THR). Design  Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Data sources  Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library, ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and the EU Clinical Trials Register. Review methods  Published randomised controlled trials comparing different implant combinations. Implant combinations were defined by bearing surface materials (metal-on-polyethylene, ceramic-on-polyethylene, ceramic-on-ceramic, or metal-on-metal), head size (large ≥36 mm or small meta-analysis for revision. There was no evidence that the risk of revision surgery was reduced by other implant combinations compared with the reference implant combination. Although estimates are imprecise, metal-on-metal, small head, cemented implants (hazard ratio 4.4, 95% credible interval 1.6 to 16.6) and resurfacing (12.1, 2.1 to 120.3) increase the risk of revision at 0-2 years after primary THR compared with the reference implant combination. Similar results were observed for the 2-10 years period. 31 studies (2888 patients) were included in the analysis of Harris hip score. No implant combination had a better score than the reference implant combination. Conclusions  Newer implant combinations were not found to be better than the reference implant combination (metal-on-polyethylene (not highly cross linked), small head, cemented) in terms of risk of revision surgery or Harris hip score. Metal-on-metal, small head, cemented implants and resurfacing increased the risk of revision surgery compared with the reference implant combination. The results were consistent with observational evidence and were replicated in sensitivity analysis but were limited by poor reporting across studies. Systematic review registration  PROSPERO CRD42015019435. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence

  9. Well-posedness and accuracy of the ensemble Kalman filter in discrete and continuous time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, D T B; Stuart, A M; Law, K J H

    2014-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations associated with the filter, which are required to make a useable algorithm in practice, are derived in an ad hoc fashion. The aim of this paper is to initiate the development of a systematic analysis of the EnKF, in particular to do so for small ensemble size. The perspective is to view the method as a state estimator, and not as an algorithm which approximates the true filtering distribution. The perturbed observation version of the algorithm is studied, without and with variance inflation. Without variance inflation well-posedness of the filter is established; with variance inflation accuracy of the filter, with respect to the true signal underlying the data, is established. The algorithm is considered in discrete time, and also for a continuous time limit arising when observations are frequent and subject to large noise. The underlying dynamical model, and assumptions about it, is sufficiently general to include the Lorenz '63 and '96 models, together with the incompressible Navier–Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus. The analysis is limited to the case of complete observation of the signal with additive white noise. Numerical results are presented for the Navier–Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus for both complete and partial observations of the signal with additive white noise. (paper)

  10. A Single-column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, L.; Jakob, C.; Cheung, K.; DelGenio, A.; Hill, A.; Hume, T.; Keane, R. J.; Komori, T.; Larson, V. E.; Lin, Y.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

  11. Pre- and post-processing of hydro-meteorological ensembles for the Norwegian flood forecasting system in 145 basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahr Hegdahl, Trine; Steinsland, Ingelin; Merete Tallaksen, Lena; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Probabilistic flood forecasting has an added value for decision making. The Norwegian flood forecasting service is based on a flood forecasting model that run for 145 basins. Covering all of Norway the basins differ in both size and hydrological regime. Currently the flood forecasting is based on deterministic meteorological forecasts, and an auto-regressive procedure is used to achieve probabilistic forecasts. An alternative approach is to use meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts to quantify the uncertainty in forecasted streamflow. The hydrological ensembles are based on forcing a hydrological model with meteorological ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature. However, the ensembles of precipitation are often biased and the spread is too small, especially for the shortest lead times, i.e. they are not calibrated. These properties will, to some extent, propagate to hydrological ensembles, that most likely will be uncalibrated as well. Pre- and post-processing methods are commonly used to obtain calibrated meteorological and hydrological ensembles respectively. Quantitative studies showing the effect of the combined processing of the meteorological (pre-processing) and the hydrological (post-processing) ensembles are however few. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of pre- and post-processing on the skill of streamflow predictions, and we will especially investigate if the forecasting skill depends on lead-time, basin size and hydrological regime. This aim is achieved by applying the 51 medium-range ensemble forecast of precipitation and temperature provided by the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). These ensembles are used as input to the operational Norwegian flood forecasting model, both raw and pre-processed. Precipitation ensembles are calibrated using a zero-adjusted gamma distribution. Temperature ensembles are calibrated using a Gaussian distribution and altitude corrected by a constant gradient

  12. Force Sensor Based Tool Condition Monitoring Using a Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guofeng Wang

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Tool condition monitoring (TCM plays an important role in improving machining efficiency and guaranteeing workpiece quality. In order to realize reliable recognition of the tool condition, a robust classifier needs to be constructed to depict the relationship between tool wear states and sensory information. However, because of the complexity of the machining process and the uncertainty of the tool wear evolution, it is hard for a single classifier to fit all the collected samples without sacrificing generalization ability. In this paper, heterogeneous ensemble learning is proposed to realize tool condition monitoring in which the support vector machine (SVM, hidden Markov model (HMM and radius basis function (RBF are selected as base classifiers and a stacking ensemble strategy is further used to reflect the relationship between the outputs of these base classifiers and tool wear states. Based on the heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier, an online monitoring system is constructed in which the harmonic features are extracted from force signals and a minimal redundancy and maximal relevance (mRMR algorithm is utilized to select the most prominent features. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a titanium alloy milling experiment was carried out and samples with different tool wear states were collected to build the proposed heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier. Moreover, the homogeneous ensemble learning model and majority voting strategy are also adopted to make a comparison. The analysis and comparison results show that the proposed heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier performs better in both classification accuracy and stability.

  13. A Novel Bias Correction Method for Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS Soil Moisture: Retrieval Ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Hyoung Lee

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Bias correction is a very important pre-processing step in satellite data assimilation analysis, as data assimilation itself cannot circumvent satellite biases. We introduce a retrieval algorithm-specific and spatially heterogeneous Instantaneous Field of View (IFOV bias correction method for Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS soil moisture. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to present the probabilistic presentation of SMOS soil moisture using retrieval ensembles. We illustrate that retrieval ensembles effectively mitigated the overestimation problem of SMOS soil moisture arising from brightness temperature errors over West Africa in a computationally efficient way (ensemble size: 12, no time-integration. In contrast, the existing method of Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF matching considerably increased the SMOS biases, due to the limitations of relying on the imperfect reference data. From the validation at two semi-arid sites, Benin (moderately wet and vegetated area and Niger (dry and sandy bare soils, it was shown that the SMOS errors arising from rain and vegetation attenuation were appropriately corrected by ensemble approaches. In Benin, the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs decreased from 0.1248 m3/m3 for CDF matching to 0.0678 m3/m3 for the proposed ensemble approach. In Niger, the RMSEs decreased from 0.14 m3/m3 for CDF matching to 0.045 m3/m3 for the ensemble approach.

  14. JEnsembl: a version-aware Java API to Ensembl data systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Trevor; Law, Andy

    2012-11-01

    The Ensembl Project provides release-specific Perl APIs for efficient high-level programmatic access to data stored in various Ensembl database schema. Although Perl scripts are perfectly suited for processing large volumes of text-based data, Perl is not ideal for developing large-scale software applications nor embedding in graphical interfaces. The provision of a novel Java API would facilitate type-safe, modular, object-orientated development of new Bioinformatics tools with which to access, analyse and visualize Ensembl data. The JEnsembl API implementation provides basic data retrieval and manipulation functionality from the Core, Compara and Variation databases for all species in Ensembl and EnsemblGenomes and is a platform for the development of a richer API to Ensembl datasources. The JEnsembl architecture uses a text-based configuration module to provide evolving, versioned mappings from database schema to code objects. A single installation of the JEnsembl API can therefore simultaneously and transparently connect to current and previous database instances (such as those in the public archive) thus facilitating better analysis repeatability and allowing 'through time' comparative analyses to be performed. Project development, released code libraries, Maven repository and documentation are hosted at SourceForge (http://jensembl.sourceforge.net).

  15. Analysis of the Interactions of Botanical Extract Combinations Against the Viability of Prostate Cancer Cell Lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynn S. Adams

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Herbal medicines are often combinations of botanical extracts that are assumed to have additive or synergistic effects. The purpose of this investigation was to compare the effect of individual botanical extracts with combinations of extracts on prostate cell viability. We then modeled the interactions between botanical extracts in combination isobolographically. Scutellaria baicalensis, Rabdosia rubescens, Panax-pseudo ginseng, Dendranthema morifolium, Glycyrrhiza uralensis and Serenoa repens were collected, taxonomically identified and extracts prepared. Effects of the extracts on cell viability were quantitated in prostate cell lines using a luminescent ATP cell viability assay. Combinations of two botanical extracts of the four most active extracts were tested in the 22Rv1 cell line and their interactions assessed using isobolographic analysis. Each extract significantly inhibited the proliferation of prostate cell lines in a time- and dose-dependent manner except repens. The most active extracts, baicalensis, D. morifolium, G. uralensis and R. rubescens were tested as two-extract combinations. baicalensis and D. morifolium when combined were additive with a trend toward synergy, whereas D. morifolium and R. rubescens together were additive. The remaining two-extract combinations showed antagonism. The four extracts together were significantly more effective than the two-by-two combinations and the individual extracts alone. Combining the four herbal extracts significantly enhanced their activity in the cell lines tested compared with extracts alone. The less predictable nature of the two-way combinations suggests a need for careful characterization of the effects of each individual herb based on their intended use.

  16. Understanding ensemble protein folding at atomic detail

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallin, Stefan; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

    2008-01-01

    Although far from routine, simulating the folding of specific short protein chains on the computer, at a detailed atomic level, is starting to become a reality. This remarkable progress, which has been made over the last decade or so, allows a fundamental aspect of the protein folding process to be addressed, namely its statistical nature. In order to make quantitative comparisons with experimental kinetic data a complete ensemble view of folding must be achieved, with key observables averaged over the large number of microscopically different folding trajectories available to a protein chain. Here we review recent advances in atomic-level protein folding simulations and the new insight provided by them into the protein folding process. An important element in understanding ensemble folding kinetics are methods for analyzing many separate folding trajectories, and we discuss techniques developed to condense the large amount of information contained in an ensemble of trajectories into a manageable picture of the folding process. (topical review)

  17. Lattice gauge theory in the microcanonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, D.J.E.; Rahman, A.

    1983-01-01

    The microcanonical-ensemble formulation of lattice gauge theory proposed recently is examined in detail. Expectation values in this new ensemble are determined by solving a large set of coupled ordinary differential equations, after the fashion of a molecular dynamics simulation. Following a brief review of the microcanonical ensemble, calculations are performed for the gauge groups U(1), SU(2), and SU(3). The results are compared and contrasted with standard methods of computation. Several advantages of the new formalism are noted. For example, no random numbers are required to update the system. Also, this update is performed in a simultaneous fashion. Thus the microcanonical method presumably adapts well to parallel processing techniques, especially when the p action is highly nonlocal (such as when fermions are included)

  18. Ensemble Network Architecture for Deep Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi-liang Chen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The popular deep Q learning algorithm is known to be instability because of the Q-value’s shake and overestimation action values under certain conditions. These issues tend to adversely affect their performance. In this paper, we develop the ensemble network architecture for deep reinforcement learning which is based on value function approximation. The temporal ensemble stabilizes the training process by reducing the variance of target approximation error and the ensemble of target values reduces the overestimate and makes better performance by estimating more accurate Q-value. Our results show that this architecture leads to statistically significant better value evaluation and more stable and better performance on several classical control tasks at OpenAI Gym environment.

  19. Embedded random matrix ensembles in quantum physics

    CERN Document Server

    Kota, V K B

    2014-01-01

    Although used with increasing frequency in many branches of physics, random matrix ensembles are not always sufficiently specific to account for important features of the physical system at hand. One refinement which retains the basic stochastic approach but allows for such features consists in the use of embedded ensembles.  The present text is an exhaustive introduction to and survey of this important field. Starting with an easy-to-read introduction to general random matrix theory, the text then develops the necessary concepts from the beginning, accompanying the reader to the frontiers of present-day research. With some notable exceptions, to date these ensembles have primarily been applied in nuclear spectroscopy. A characteristic example is the use of a random two-body interaction in the framework of the nuclear shell model. Yet, topics in atomic physics, mesoscopic physics, quantum information science and statistical mechanics of isolated finite quantum systems can also be addressed using these ensemb...

  20. An Integrated Strategy Framework (ISF) for Combining Porter's 5-Forces, Diamond, PESTEL, and SWOT Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Anton, Roman

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Porter's Five-Forces, Porter's Diamond, PESTEL, the 6th-Forths, and Humphrey's SWOT analysis are among the most important and popular concepts taught in business schools around the world. A new integrated strategy framework (ISF) combines all major concepts. PURPOSE Porter's Five-Forces, Porter's Diamond, PESTEL, the 6th-Forths, and Humphrey's SWOT analysis are among the most important and popular concepts taught in business schools around the world. A new integrated strategy fr...

  1. Preliminary analysis of combined cycle of modular high-temperature gas cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baogang, Z.; Xiaoyong, Y.; Jie, W.; Gang, Z.; Qian, S.

    2015-01-01

    Modular high-temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) is known as one of the most advanced nuclear reactors because of its inherent safety and high efficiency. The power conversion system of HTGR can be steam turbine based on Rankine cycle or gas turbine based on Brayton cycle respectively. The steam turbine system is mature and the gas turbine system has high efficiency but under development. The Brayton-Rankine combined cycle is an effective way to further promote the efficiency. This paper investigated the performance of combined cycle from the viewpoint of thermodynamics. The effect of non-dimensional parameters on combined cycle’s efficiency, such as temperature ratio, compression ratio, efficiency of compressor, efficiency of turbine, was analyzed. Furthermore, the optimal parameters to achieve highest efficiency was also given by this analysis under engineering constraints. The conclusions could be helpful to the design and development of combined cycle of HTGR. (author)

  2. Ensemble Kalman methods for inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iglesias, Marco A; Law, Kody J H; Stuart, Andrew M

    2013-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was introduced by Evensen in 1994 (Evensen 1994 J. Geophys. Res. 99 10143–62) as a novel method for data assimilation: state estimation for noisily observed time-dependent problems. Since that time it has had enormous impact in many application domains because of its robustness and ease of implementation, and numerical evidence of its accuracy. In this paper we propose the application of an iterative ensemble Kalman method for the solution of a wide class of inverse problems. In this context we show that the estimate of the unknown function that we obtain with the ensemble Kalman method lies in a subspace A spanned by the initial ensemble. Hence the resulting error may be bounded above by the error found from the best approximation in this subspace. We provide numerical experiments which compare the error incurred by the ensemble Kalman method for inverse problems with the error of the best approximation in A, and with variants on traditional least-squares approaches, restricted to the subspace A. In so doing we demonstrate that the ensemble Kalman method for inverse problems provides a derivative-free optimization method with comparable accuracy to that achieved by traditional least-squares approaches. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that the accuracy is of the same order of magnitude as that achieved by the best approximation. Three examples are used to demonstrate these assertions: inversion of a compact linear operator; inversion of piezometric head to determine hydraulic conductivity in a Darcy model of groundwater flow; and inversion of Eulerian velocity measurements at positive times to determine the initial condition in an incompressible fluid. (paper)

  3. Development of a stacked ensemble model for forecasting and analyzing daily average PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Binxu; Chen, Jianguo

    2018-04-18

    A stacked ensemble model is developed for forecasting and analyzing the daily average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Beijing, China. Special feature extraction procedures, including those of simplification, polynomial, transformation and combination, are conducted before modeling to identify potentially significant features based on an exploratory data analysis. Stability feature selection and tree-based feature selection methods are applied to select important variables and evaluate the degrees of feature importance. Single models including LASSO, Adaboost, XGBoost and multi-layer perceptron optimized by the genetic algorithm (GA-MLP) are established in the level 0 space and are then integrated by support vector regression (SVR) in the level 1 space via stacked generalization. A feature importance analysis reveals that nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations measured from the city of Zhangjiakou are taken as the most important elements of pollution factors for forecasting PM 2.5 concentrations. Local extreme wind speeds and maximal wind speeds are considered to extend the most effects of meteorological factors to the cross-regional transportation of contaminants. Pollutants found in the cities of Zhangjiakou and Chengde have a stronger impact on air quality in Beijing than other surrounding factors. Our model evaluation shows that the ensemble model generally performs better than a single nonlinear forecasting model when applied to new data with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.90 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 23.69μg/m 3 . For single pollutant grade recognition, the proposed model performs better when applied to days characterized by good air quality than when applied to days registering high levels of pollution. The overall classification accuracy level is 73.93%, with most misclassifications made among adjacent categories. The results demonstrate the interpretability and generalizability of

  4. HRensembleHR. High resolution ensemble for Horns Rev. Final project report. Executive summary; Offshore wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-03-15

    The development of offshore wind power results in more energy production per area unit and new requirements to the generation forecasts. Measurements from Horns Rev and ensemble forecasts were used to upgrade forecasting tools for the relevant periods and time scales. The most significant development is a new algorithm for short-term forecasts that combines any relevant online measurements by means of ensemble forecasts. (ln)

  5. Reliability analysis of production ships with emphasis on load combination and ultimate strength

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiaozhi

    1995-05-01

    This thesis deals with ultimate strength and reliability analysis of offshore production ships, accounting for stochastic load combinations, using a typical North Sea production ship for reference. A review of methods for structural reliability analysis is presented. Probabilistic methods are established for the still water and vertical wave bending moments. Linear stress analysis of a midships transverse frame is carried out, four different finite element models are assessed. Upon verification of the general finite element code ABAQUS with a typical ship transverse girder example, for which test results are available, ultimate strength analysis of the reference transverse frame is made to obtain the ultimate load factors associated with the specified pressure loads in Det norske Veritas Classification rules for ships and rules for production vessels. Reliability analysis is performed to develop appropriate design criteria for the transverse structure. It is found that the transverse frame failure mode does not seem to contribute to the system collapse. Ultimate strength analysis of the longitudinally stiffened panels is performed, accounting for the combined biaxial and lateral loading. Reliability based design of the longitudinally stiffened bottom and deck panels is accomplished regarding the collapse mode under combined biaxial and lateral loads. 107 refs., 76 refs., 37 tabs.

  6. Process Monitoring by combining several signal-analysis results using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoonwelle, H.; Van der Hagen, T.H.J.J.; Hoogenboom, J.E.

    1996-01-01

    In order to improve reliability in detecting anomalies in nuclear power plant performance, a method is presented which is based on acquiring various characteristics of signal data using autoregressive, wavelet and fractal-analysis techniques. These characteristics are combined using a decision making approach based on fuzzy logic. This approach is able to detect and distinguish several system states

  7. Urban Saturated Power Load Analysis Based on a Novel Combined Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of urban saturated power loads is helpful to coordinate urban power grid construction and economic social development. There are two different kinds of forecasting models: the logistic curve model focuses on the growth law of the data itself, while the multi-dimensional forecasting model considers several influencing factors as the input variables. To improve forecasting performance, a novel combined forecasting model for saturated power load analysis was proposed in this paper, which combined the above two models. Meanwhile, the weights of these two models in the combined forecasting model were optimized by employing a fruit fly optimization algorithm. Using Hubei Province as the example, the effectiveness of the proposed combined forecasting model was verified, demonstrating a higher forecasting accuracy. The analysis result shows that the power load of Hubei Province will reach saturation in 2039, and the annual maximum power load will reach about 78,630 MW. The results obtained from this proposed hybrid urban saturated power load analysis model can serve as a reference for sustainable development for urban power grids, regional economies, and society at large.

  8. A Hybrid Approach to Composite Damage and Failure Analysis Combining Synergistic Damage Mechanics and Peridynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-30

    other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for fai ling to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a...to Composite Damage and Fai lure Analysis Combining Synergistic Damage Mechanics and Peridynamics Sb. GRANT NUMBER NOOO 14-16-1-2173 Sc. PROGRAM

  9. Sample preparation for combined chemical analysis and bioassay application in water quality assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolkman, A.; Schriks, M.; Brand, W; Bäuerlein, P.S.; van der Kooi, M.M.E.; van Doorn, R.H.; Emke, E.; Reus, A.; van der Linden, S.; de Voogt, P.; Heringa, M.B.

    2013-01-01

    The combination of in vitro bioassays and chemical screening can provide a powerful toolbox to determine biologically relevant compounds in water extracts. In this study, a sample preparation method is evaluated for the suitability for both chemical analysis and in vitro bioassays. A set of 39

  10. Combining soft system methodology and pareto analysis in safety management performance assessment : an aviation case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karanikas, Nektarios

    2016-01-01

    Although reengineering is strategically advantageous for organisations in order to keep functional and sustainable, safety must remain a priority and respective efforts need to be maintained. This paper suggests the combination of soft system methodology (SSM) and Pareto analysis on the scope of

  11. Determination of the input parameters for inelastic background analysis combined with HAXPES using a reference sample

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zborowski, C.; Renault, O; Torres, A

    2018-01-01

    The recent progress in HAXPES combined with Inelastic Background Analysis makes this method a powerful, non-destructive solution to get quantitative information on deeply buried layers and interfaces at depths up to 70. nm. However, we recently highlighted the need for carefully choosing the scat...

  12. Thermodynamic analysis of a new combined cooling and power system using ammonia–water mixture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jiangfeng; Wang, Jianyong; Zhao, Pan; Dai, Yiping

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A new combined cooling and power system is proposed. • Exergy destruction analysis is used to identify irreversibility of components in system. • Thermodynamic parameter analysis is performed for system. - Abstract: In order to achieve both power and cooling supply for users, a new combined cooling and power system using ammonia–water mixture is proposed to utilizing low grade heat sources, such as industrial waste heat, solar energy and geothermal energy. The proposed system combines a Kalina cycle and an ammonia–water absorption refrigeration cycle, in which the ammonia–water turbine exhaust is delivered to a separator to extract purer ammonia vapor. The purer ammonia vapor enters an evaporator to generate refrigeration output after being condensed and throttled. Mathematical models are established to simulate the combined system under steady-state conditions. Exergy destruction analysis is conducted to display the exergy destruction distribution in the system qualitatively and the results show that the major exergy destruction occurs in the heat exchangers. Finally a thermodynamic sensitivity analysis is performed and reveals that with an increase in the pressure of separator I or the ammonia mass fraction of basic solution, thermal efficiency and exergy efficiency of the system increase, whereas with an increase in the temperature of separator I, the ammonia–water turbine back pressure or the condenser II pressure, thermal efficiency and exergy efficiency of the system drop.

  13. Cluster ensembles, quantization and the dilogarithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fock, Vladimir; Goncharov, Alexander B.

    2009-01-01

    A cluster ensemble is a pair of positive spaces (i.e. varieties equipped with positive atlases), coming with an action of a symmetry group . The space is closely related to the spectrum of a cluster algebra [ 12 ]. The two spaces are related by a morphism . The space is equipped with a closed -form......, possibly degenerate, and the space has a Poisson structure. The map is compatible with these structures. The dilogarithm together with its motivic and quantum avatars plays a central role in the cluster ensemble structure. We define a non-commutative -deformation of the -space. When is a root of unity...

  14. Ensemble computing for the petroleum industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Annaratone, M.; Dossa, D.

    1995-01-01

    Computer downsizing is one of the most often used buzzwords in today's competitive business, and the petroleum industry is at the forefront of this revolution. Ensemble computing provides the key for computer downsizing with its first incarnation, i.e., workstation farms. This paper concerns the importance of increasing the productivity cycle and not just the execution time of a job. The authors introduce the concept of ensemble computing and workstation farms. The they discuss how different computing paradigms can be addressed by workstation farms

  15. Statistical assessment on a combined analysis of GRYN-ROMN-UCBN upland vegetation vital signs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Kathryn M.; Rodhouse, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    As of 2013, Rocky Mountain and Upper Columbia Basin Inventory and Monitoring Networks have multiple years of vegetation data and Greater Yellowstone Network has three years of vegetation data and monitoring is ongoing in all three networks. Our primary objective is to assess whether a combined analysis of these data aimed at exploring correlations with climate and weather data is feasible. We summarize the core survey design elements across protocols and point out the major statistical challenges for a combined analysis at present. The dissimilarity in response designs between ROMN and UCBN-GRYN network protocols presents a statistical challenge that has not been resolved yet. However, the UCBN and GRYN data are compatible as they implement a similar response design; therefore, a combined analysis is feasible and will be pursued in future. When data collected by different networks are combined, the survey design describing the merged dataset is (likely) a complex survey design. A complex survey design is the result of combining datasets from different sampling designs. A complex survey design is characterized by unequal probability sampling, varying stratification, and clustering (see Lohr 2010 Chapter 7 for general overview). Statistical analysis of complex survey data requires modifications to standard methods, one of which is to include survey design weights within a statistical model. We focus on this issue for a combined analysis of upland vegetation from these networks, leaving other topics for future research. We conduct a simulation study on the possible effects of equal versus unequal probability selection of points on parameter estimates of temporal trend using available packages within the R statistical computing package. We find that, as written, using lmer or lm for trend detection in a continuous response and clm and clmm for visually estimated cover classes with “raw” GRTS design weights specified for the weight argument leads to substantially

  16. Applying a new ensemble approach to estimating stock status of marine fisheries around the world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenberg, Andrew A.; Kleisner, Kristin M.; Afflerbach, Jamie

    2018-01-01

    The exploitation status of marine fisheries stocks worldwide is of critical importance for food security, ecosystem conservation, and fishery sustainability. Applying a suite of data-limited methods to global catch data, combined through an ensemble modeling approach, we provide quantitative esti...

  17. Data assimilation method for fractured reservoirs using mimetic finite differences and ensemble Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Ping, Jing; Al-Hinai, Omar; Wheeler, Mary F.

    2017-01-01

    -Gaussian in this case, it is a challenge to estimate fracture distributions by conventional history matching approaches. In this work, a method that combines vector-based level-set parameterization technique and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for estimating fracture

  18. The online performance estimation framework: heterogeneous ensemble learning for data streams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rijn, J.N.; Holmes, G.; Pfahringer, B.; Vanschoren, J.

    2018-01-01

    Ensembles of classifiers are among the best performing classifiers available in many data mining applications, including the mining of data streams. Rather than training one classifier, multiple classifiers are trained, and their predictions are combined according to a given voting schedule. An

  19. Distance parameterization for efficient seismic history matching with the ensemble Kalman Filter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwenburgh, O.; Arts, R.

    2012-01-01

    The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), in combination with travel-time parameterization, provides a robust and flexible method for quantitative multi-model history matching to time-lapse seismic data. A disadvantage of the parameterization in terms of travel-times is that it requires simulation of

  20. A class of energy-based ensembles in Tsallis statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandrashekar, R; Naina Mohammed, S S

    2011-01-01

    A comprehensive investigation is carried out on the class of energy-based ensembles. The eight ensembles are divided into two main classes. In the isothermal class of ensembles the individual members are at the same temperature. A unified framework is evolved to describe the four isothermal ensembles using the currently accepted third constraint formalism. The isothermal–isobaric, grand canonical and generalized ensembles are illustrated through a study of the classical nonrelativistic and extreme relativistic ideal gas models. An exact calculation is possible only in the case of the isothermal–isobaric ensemble. The study of the ideal gas models in the grand canonical and the generalized ensembles has been carried out using a perturbative procedure with the nonextensivity parameter (1 − q) as the expansion parameter. Though all the thermodynamic quantities have been computed up to a particular order in (1 − q) the procedure can be extended up to any arbitrary order in the expansion parameter. In the adiabatic class of ensembles the individual members of the ensemble have the same value of the heat function and a unified formulation to described all four ensembles is given. The nonrelativistic and the extreme relativistic ideal gases are studied in the isoenthalpic–isobaric ensemble, the adiabatic ensemble with number fluctuations and the adiabatic ensemble with number and particle fluctuations

  1. Meta-analysis of individual and combined effects of mycotoxins on growing pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ines Andretta

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Little is known about the toxicity of concomitantly occurring mycotoxins in pig diets. This study was conducted to evaluate, through meta-analysis, the individual and the combined effects of mycotoxins on pig performance. The meta-analysis followed three sequential analyses (graphical, correlation, and variance-covariance based on a database composed of 85 published papers, 1,012 treatments and 13,196 animals. Contamination of diets with individual mycotoxins reduced (p < 0.05 feed intake by 14 % and weight gain by 17 %, while combined mycotoxins reduced the same responses by 42 % and 45 %, respectively, in comparison with the non-challenged group. The correlation (p < 0.05 between reduction in weight gain (ΔG and reduction in feed intake (ΔFI was 0.67 in individual challenges and 0.93 in combined challenges. The estimated ΔG was –6 % in individual challenges and –7 % in combined challenges when ΔFI was zero, suggesting an increase in the maintenance requirements of challenged animals. Most of ΔG (58 % in individual challenges and 84 % in combined challenges was attributed to the changes in feed efficiency. The association of mycotoxins enhances individual toxic effects and the ΔFI is important in explaining the deleterious effects on the growth of challenged pigs.

  2. Using simulation to interpret experimental data in terms of protein conformational ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Jane R

    2017-04-01

    In their biological environment, proteins are dynamic molecules, necessitating an ensemble structural description. Molecular dynamics simulations and solution-state experiments provide complimentary information in the form of atomically detailed coordinates and averaged or distributions of structural properties or related quantities. Recently, increases in the temporal and spatial scale of conformational sampling and comparison of the more diverse conformational ensembles thus generated have revealed the importance of sampling rare events. Excitingly, new methods based on maximum entropy and Bayesian inference are promising to provide a statistically sound mechanism for combining experimental data with molecular dynamics simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Improving a Deep Learning based RGB-D Object Recognition Model by Ensemble Learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aakerberg, Andreas; Nasrollahi, Kamal; Heder, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Augmenting RGB images with depth information is a well-known method to significantly improve the recognition accuracy of object recognition models. Another method to im- prove the performance of visual recognition models is ensemble learning. However, this method has not been widely explored...... in combination with deep convolutional neural network based RGB-D object recognition models. Hence, in this paper, we form different ensembles of complementary deep convolutional neural network models, and show that this can be used to increase the recognition performance beyond existing limits. Experiments...

  4. The analysis of uranium in environmental sample by mass spectrometer combined with isotopic dilution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Zhonghua; Jia Baoting; Han Jun

    2003-01-01

    Uranium in the environmental sample was analyzed by mass spectrometer combined with isotopic dilution. Before mass spectrometer analysis, samples were dissolved in a concentrated acidic solution containing HNO 3 , HF and HClO 4 and chemically processed to suit the analysis requirement. Analysis results indicated that the uranium content was 0.08 μg/g in river water, 0.1 μg/g in evergreen foliage, and 5-11 μg/g in surface soil respectively. (authors)

  5. Quasi-static ensemble variational data assimilation: a theoretical and numerical study with the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fillion, Anthony; Bocquet, Marc; Gratton, Serge

    2018-04-01

    The analysis in nonlinear variational data assimilation is the solution of a non-quadratic minimization. Thus, the analysis efficiency relies on its ability to locate a global minimum of the cost function. If this minimization uses a Gauss-Newton (GN) method, it is critical for the starting point to be in the attraction basin of a global minimum. Otherwise the method may converge to a local extremum, which degrades the analysis. With chaotic models, the number of local extrema often increases with the temporal extent of the data assimilation window, making the former condition harder to satisfy. This is unfortunate because the assimilation performance also increases with this temporal extent. However, a quasi-static (QS) minimization may overcome these local extrema. It accomplishes this by gradually injecting the observations in the cost function. This method was introduced by Pires et al. (1996) in a 4D-Var context. We generalize this approach to four-dimensional strong-constraint nonlinear ensemble variational (EnVar) methods, which are based on both a nonlinear variational analysis and the propagation of dynamical error statistics via an ensemble. This forces one to consider the cost function minimizations in the broader context of cycled data assimilation algorithms. We adapt this QS approach to the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS), an exemplar of nonlinear deterministic four-dimensional EnVar methods. Using low-order models, we quantify the positive impact of the QS approach on the IEnKS, especially for long data assimilation windows. We also examine the computational cost of QS implementations and suggest cheaper algorithms.

  6. Cost-effectiveness analysis of combination therapies for visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Meheus

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Visceral leishmaniasis is a systemic parasitic disease that is fatal unless treated. We assessed the cost and cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent. In particular we examined whether combination therapies are a cost-effective alternative compared to monotherapies.We assessed the cost-effectiveness of all possible mono- and combination therapies for the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent (India, Nepal and Bangladesh from a societal perspective using a decision analytical model based on a decision tree. Primary data collected in each country was combined with data from the literature and an expert poll (Delphi method. The cost per patient treated and average and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios expressed as cost per death averted were calculated. Extensive sensitivity analysis was done to evaluate the robustness of our estimations and conclusions. With a cost of US$92 per death averted, the combination miltefosine-paromomycin was the most cost-effective treatment strategy. The next best alternative was a combination of liposomal amphotericin B with paromomycin with an incremental cost-effectiveness of $652 per death averted. All other strategies were dominated with the exception of a single dose of 10mg per kg of liposomal amphotericin B. While strategies based on liposomal amphotericin B (AmBisome were found to be the most effective, its current drug cost of US$20 per vial resulted in a higher average cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analysis showed the conclusion to be robust to variations in the input parameters over their plausible range.Combination treatments are a cost-effective alternative to current monotherapy for VL. Given their expected impact on the emergence of drug resistance, a switch to combination therapy should be considered once final results from clinical trials are available.

  7. A combined Bodian-Nissl stain for improved network analysis in neuronal cell culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hightower, M; Gross, G W

    1985-11-01

    Bodian and Nissl procedures were combined to stain dissociated mouse spinal cord cells cultured on coverslips. The Bodian technique stains fine neuronal processes in great detail as well as an intracellular fibrillar network concentrated around the nucleus and in proximal neurites. The Nissl stain clearly delimits neuronal cytoplasm in somata and in large dendrites. A combination of these techniques allows the simultaneous depiction of neuronal perikarya and all afferent and efferent processes. Costaining with little background staining by either procedure suggests high specificity for neurons. This procedure could be exploited for routine network analysis of cultured neurons.

  8. Analysis of simultaneous measurement of temperature and strain using different combinations of FBG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashik T., J.; Kachare, Nitin; Kalyani bai, K.; Kumar, D. Sriram

    2017-06-01

    The Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) can be used for measuring temperature and or strain. In this paper analysis of different combinations of FBG is made. Certain parameters of FBG are considered such as Bandwidth, Side lobes, Peak power, and Sensitivity. Simultaneous measurement of temperature and strain is made using two combinations of FBG. The setup is simulated using two software. Optigrating 4.2.2 is used for designing different types of gratings such as Uniform, Apodized, Tilted and Superstructure. After designing, these files are exported to Optisystem 12 to simulate the spectrum and to observe the parameters.

  9. Ongoing Analysis of Rocket Based Combined Cycle Engines by the Applied Fluid Dynamics Analysis Group at Marshall Space Flight Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruf, Joseph; Holt, James B.; Canabal, Francisco

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents the status of analyses on three Rocket Based Combined Cycle configurations underway in the Applied Fluid Dynamics Analysis Group (TD64). TD64 is performing computational fluid dynamics analysis on a Penn State RBCC test rig, the proposed Draco axisymmetric RBCC engine and the Trailblazer engine. The intent of the analysis on the Penn State test rig is to benchmark the Finite Difference Navier Stokes code for ejector mode fluid dynamics. The Draco engine analysis is a trade study to determine the ejector mode performance as a function of three engine design variables. The Trailblazer analysis is to evaluate the nozzle performance in scramjet mode. Results to date of each analysis are presented.

  10. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Andy; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2015-04-01

    The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment was established in March, 2004, at a workshop hosted by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), and co-sponsored by the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Commission (EC). The HEPEX goal was to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to advance the understanding and adoption of hydrological ensemble forecasts for decision support. HEPEX pursues this goal through research efforts and practical implementations involving six core elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction enterprise: input and pre-processing, ensemble techniques, data assimilation, post-processing, verification, and communication and use in decision making. HEPEX has grown through meetings that connect the user, forecast producer and research communities to exchange ideas, data and methods; the coordination of experiments to address specific challenges; and the formation of testbeds to facilitate shared experimentation. In the last decade, HEPEX has organized over a dozen international workshops, as well as sessions at scientific meetings (including AMS, AGU and EGU) and special issues of scientific journals where workshop results have been published. Through these interactions and an active online blog (www.hepex.org), HEPEX has built a strong and active community of nearly 400 researchers & practitioners around the world. This poster presents an overview of recent and planned HEPEX activities, highlighting case studies that exemplify the focus and objectives of HEPEX.

  11. The Phantasmagoria of Competition in School Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramo, Joseph Michael

    2017-01-01

    Participation in competition festivals--where students and ensembles compete against each other for high scores and accolades--is a widespread practice in North American formal music education. In this article, I use Marx's theories of labor, value, and phantasmagoria to suggest a capitalist logic that structures these competitions. Marx's…

  12. NYYD Ensemble ja Riho Sibul / Anneli Remme

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Remme, Anneli, 1968-

    2001-01-01

    Gavin Bryarsi teos "Jesus' Blood Never Failed Me Yet" NYYD Ensemble'i ja Riho Sibula esituses 27. detsembril Pauluse kirikus Tartus ja 28. detsembril Rootsi- Mihkli kirikus Tallinnas. Kaastegevad Tartu Ülikooli Kammerkoor (Tartus) ja kammerkoor Voces Musicales (Tallinnas). Kunstiline juht Olari Elts

  13. Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NJD

    Improvements in neural network calibration models by a novel approach using neural network ensemble (NNE) for the simultaneous ... process by training a number of neural networks. .... Matlab® version 6.1 was employed for building principal component ... provide a fair simulation of calibration data set with some degree.

  14. Managing uncertainty in metabolic network structure and improving predictions using EnsembleFBA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew B Biggs

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions (GENREs are repositories of knowledge about the metabolic processes that occur in an organism. GENREs have been used to discover and interpret metabolic functions, and to engineer novel network structures. A major barrier preventing more widespread use of GENREs, particularly to study non-model organisms, is the extensive time required to produce a high-quality GENRE. Many automated approaches have been developed which reduce this time requirement, but automatically-reconstructed draft GENREs still require curation before useful predictions can be made. We present a novel approach to the analysis of GENREs which improves the predictive capabilities of draft GENREs by representing many alternative network structures, all equally consistent with available data, and generating predictions from this ensemble. This ensemble approach is compatible with many reconstruction methods. We refer to this new approach as Ensemble Flux Balance Analysis (EnsembleFBA. We validate EnsembleFBA by predicting growth and gene essentiality in the model organism Pseudomonas aeruginosa UCBPP-PA14. We demonstrate how EnsembleFBA can be included in a systems biology workflow by predicting essential genes in six Streptococcus species and mapping the essential genes to small molecule ligands from DrugBank. We found that some metabolic subsystems contributed disproportionately to the set of predicted essential reactions in a way that was unique to each Streptococcus species, leading to species-specific outcomes from small molecule interactions. Through our analyses of P. aeruginosa and six Streptococci, we show that ensembles increase the quality of predictions without drastically increasing reconstruction time, thus making GENRE approaches more practical for applications which require predictions for many non-model organisms. All of our functions and accompanying example code are available in an open online repository.

  15. Ensemble-based Kalman Filters in Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhaoxia PU; Joshua HACKER

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.

  16. Ensemble of classifiers based network intrusion detection system performance bound

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mkuzangwe, Nenekazi NP

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a performance bound of a network intrusion detection system (NIDS) that uses an ensemble of classifiers. Currently researchers rely on implementing the ensemble of classifiers based NIDS before they can determine the performance...

  17. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  18. Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sofiev

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the first modelling experiment of the European-scale olive pollen dispersion, analyses the quality of the predictions, and outlines the research needs. A 6-model strong ensemble of Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS was run throughout the olive season of 2014, computing the olive pollen distribution. The simulations have been compared with observations in eight countries, which are members of the European Aeroallergen Network (EAN. Analysis was performed for individual models, the ensemble mean and median, and for a dynamically optimised combination of the ensemble members obtained via fusion of the model predictions with observations. The models, generally reproducing the olive season of 2014, showed noticeable deviations from both observations and each other. In particular, the season was reported to start too early by 8 days, but for some models the error mounted to almost 2 weeks. For the end of the season, the disagreement between the models and the observations varied from a nearly perfect match up to 2 weeks too late. A series of sensitivity studies carried out to understand the origin of the disagreements revealed the crucial role of ambient temperature and consistency of its representation by the meteorological models and heat-sum-based phenological model. In particular, a simple correction to the heat-sum threshold eliminated the shift of the start of the season but its validity in other years remains to be checked. The short-term features of the concentration time series were reproduced better, suggesting that the precipitation events and cold/warm spells, as well as the large-scale transport, were represented rather well. Ensemble averaging led to more robust results. The best skill scores were obtained with data fusion, which used the previous days' observations to identify the optimal weighting coefficients of the individual model forecasts. Such combinations were tested for the forecasting

  19. Hybrid quantum circuit with a superconducting qubit coupled to an electron spin ensemble

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubo, Yuimaru; Grezes, Cecile; Vion, Denis; Esteve, Daniel; Bertet, Patrice [Quantronics Group, SPEC (CNRS URA 2464), CEA-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Diniz, Igor; Auffeves, Alexia [Institut Neel, CNRS, BP 166, 38042 Grenoble (France); Isoya, Jun-ichi [Research Center for Knowledge Communities, University of Tsukuba, 305-8550 Tsukuba (Japan); Jacques, Vincent; Dreau, Anais; Roch, Jean-Francois [LPQM (CNRS, UMR 8537), Ecole Normale Superieure de Cachan, 94235 Cachan (France)

    2013-07-01

    We report the experimental realization of a hybrid quantum circuit combining a superconducting qubit and an ensemble of electronic spins. The qubit, of the transmon type, is coherently coupled to the spin ensemble consisting of nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers in a diamond crystal via a frequency-tunable superconducting resonator acting as a quantum bus. Using this circuit, we prepare arbitrary superpositions of the qubit states that we store into collective excitations of the spin ensemble and retrieve back into the qubit. We also report a new method for detecting the magnetic resonance of electronic spins at low temperature with a qubit using the hybrid quantum circuit, as well as our recent progress on spin echo experiments.

  20. An Ensemble of 2D Convolutional Neural Networks for Tumor Segmentation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyksborg, Mark; Puonti, Oula; Agn, Mikael

    2015-01-01

    Accurate tumor segmentation plays an important role in radiosurgery planning and the assessment of radiotherapy treatment efficacy. In this paper we propose a method combining an ensemble of 2D convolutional neural networks for doing a volumetric segmentation of magnetic resonance images....... The segmentation is done in three steps; first the full tumor region, is segmented from the background by a voxel-wise merging of the decisions of three networks learned from three orthogonal planes, next the segmentation is refined using a cellular automaton-based seed growing method known as growcut. Finally......, within-tumor sub-regions are segmented using an additional ensemble of networks trained for the task. We demonstrate the method on the MICCAI Brain Tumor Segmentation Challenge dataset of 2014, and show improved segmentation accuracy compared to an axially trained 2D network and an ensemble segmentation...

  1. Classifier-ensemble incremental-learning procedure for nuclear transient identification at different operational conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baraldi, Piero, E-mail: piero.baraldi@polimi.i [Dipartimento di Energia - Sezione Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano (Italy); Razavi-Far, Roozbeh [Dipartimento di Energia - Sezione Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Dipartimento di Energia - Sezione Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano (Italy); Ecole Centrale Paris-Supelec, Paris (France)

    2011-04-15

    An important requirement for the practical implementation of empirical diagnostic systems is the capability of classifying transients in all plant operational conditions. The present paper proposes an approach based on an ensemble of classifiers for incrementally learning transients under different operational conditions. New classifiers are added to the ensemble where transients occurring in new operational conditions are not satisfactorily classified. The construction of the ensemble is made by bagging; the base classifier is a supervised Fuzzy C Means (FCM) classifier whose outcomes are combined by majority voting. The incremental learning procedure is applied to the identification of simulated transients in the feedwater system of a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) under different reactor power levels.

  2. Classifier-ensemble incremental-learning procedure for nuclear transient identification at different operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baraldi, Piero; Razavi-Far, Roozbeh; Zio, Enrico

    2011-01-01

    An important requirement for the practical implementation of empirical diagnostic systems is the capability of classifying transients in all plant operational conditions. The present paper proposes an approach based on an ensemble of classifiers for incrementally learning transients under different operational conditions. New classifiers are added to the ensemble where transients occurring in new operational conditions are not satisfactorily classified. The construction of the ensemble is made by bagging; the base classifier is a supervised Fuzzy C Means (FCM) classifier whose outcomes are combined by majority voting. The incremental learning procedure is applied to the identification of simulated transients in the feedwater system of a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) under different reactor power levels.

  3. Using ensemble forecasting for wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Badger, J. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Sattler, K.

    2003-07-01

    Short-term prediction of wind power has a long tradition in Denmark. It is an essential tool for the operators to keep the grid from becoming unstable in a region like Jutland, where more than 27% of the electricity consumption comes from wind power. This means that the minimum load is already lower than the maximum production from wind energy alone. Danish utilities have therefore used short-term prediction of wind energy since the mid-90ies. However, the accuracy is still far from being sufficient in the eyes of the utilities (used to have load forecasts accurate to within 5% on a one-week horizon). The Ensemble project tries to alleviate the dependency of the forecast quality on one model by using multiple models, and also will investigate the possibilities of using the model spread of multiple models or of dedicated ensemble runs for a prediction of the uncertainty of the forecast. Usually, short-term forecasting works (especially for the horizon beyond 6 hours) by gathering input from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. This input data is used together with online data in statistical models (this is the case eg in Zephyr/WPPT) to yield the output of the wind farms or of a whole region for the next 48 hours (only limited by the NWP model horizon). For the accuracy of the final production forecast, the accuracy of the NWP prediction is paramount. While many efforts are underway to increase the accuracy of the NWP forecasts themselves (which ultimately are limited by the amount of computing power available, the lack of a tight observational network on the Atlantic and limited physics modelling), another approach is to use ensembles of different models or different model runs. This can be either an ensemble of different models output for the same area, using different data assimilation schemes and different model physics, or a dedicated ensemble run by a large institution, where the same model is run with slight variations in initial conditions and

  4. The role of model dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter performance for chaotic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, G.-H.C.; McLaughlin, D.; Entekhabi, D.; Ahanin, A.

    2011-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is susceptible to losing track of observations, or 'diverging', when applied to large chaotic systems such as atmospheric and ocean models. Past studies have demonstrated the adverse impact of sampling error during the filter's update step. We examine how system dynamics affect EnKF performance, and whether the absence of certain dynamic features in the ensemble may lead to divergence. The EnKF is applied to a simple chaotic model, and ensembles are checked against singular vectors of the tangent linear model, corresponding to short-term growth and Lyapunov vectors, corresponding to long-term growth. Results show that the ensemble strongly aligns itself with the subspace spanned by unstable Lyapunov vectors. Furthermore, the filter avoids divergence only if the full linearized long-term unstable subspace is spanned. However, short-term dynamics also become important as non-linearity in the system increases. Non-linear movement prevents errors in the long-term stable subspace from decaying indefinitely. If these errors then undergo linear intermittent growth, a small ensemble may fail to properly represent all important modes, causing filter divergence. A combination of long and short-term growth dynamics are thus critical to EnKF performance. These findings can help in developing practical robust filters based on model dynamics. ?? 2011 The Authors Tellus A ?? 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  5. Ensemble perception of emotions in autistic and typical children and adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Themelis Karaminis

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble perception, the ability to assess automatically the summary of large amounts of information presented in visual scenes, is available early in typical development. This ability might be compromised in autistic children, who are thought to present limitations in maintaining summary statistics representations for the recent history of sensory input. Here we examined ensemble perception of facial emotional expressions in 35 autistic children, 30 age- and ability-matched typical children and 25 typical adults. Participants received three tasks: a an ‘ensemble’ emotion discrimination task; b a baseline (single-face emotion discrimination task; and c a facial expression identification task. Children performed worse than adults on all three tasks. Unexpectedly, autistic and typical children were, on average, indistinguishable in their precision and accuracy on all three tasks. Computational modelling suggested that, on average, autistic and typical children used ensemble-encoding strategies to a similar extent; but ensemble perception was related to non-verbal reasoning abilities in autistic but not in typical children. Eye-movement data also showed no group differences in the way children attended to the stimuli. Our combined findings suggest that the abilities of autistic and typical children for ensemble perception of emotions are comparable on average.

  6. Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

    KAUST Repository

    Toye, Habib; Zhan, Peng; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kartadikaria, Aditya R.; Huang, Huang; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-01-01

    We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation

  7. Robust Ensemble Filtering and Its Relation to Covariance Inflation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    A robust ensemble filtering scheme based on the H∞ filtering theory is proposed. The optimal H∞ filter is derived by minimizing the supremum (or maximum) of a predefined cost function, a criterion different from the minimum variance used

  8. Quantum canonical ensemble: A projection operator approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Wim; Lemmens, Lucien; Brosens, Fons

    2017-09-01

    Knowing the exact number of particles N, and taking this knowledge into account, the quantum canonical ensemble imposes a constraint on the occupation number operators. The constraint particularly hampers the systematic calculation of the partition function and any relevant thermodynamic expectation value for arbitrary but fixed N. On the other hand, fixing only the average number of particles, one may remove the above constraint and simply factorize the traces in Fock space into traces over single-particle states. As is well known, that would be the strategy of the grand-canonical ensemble which, however, comes with an additional Lagrange multiplier to impose the average number of particles. The appearance of this multiplier can be avoided by invoking a projection operator that enables a constraint-free computation of the partition function and its derived quantities in the canonical ensemble, at the price of an angular or contour integration. Introduced in the recent past to handle various issues related to particle-number projected statistics, the projection operator approach proves beneficial to a wide variety of problems in condensed matter physics for which the canonical ensemble offers a natural and appropriate environment. In this light, we present a systematic treatment of the canonical ensemble that embeds the projection operator into the formalism of second quantization while explicitly fixing N, the very number of particles rather than the average. Being applicable to both bosonic and fermionic systems in arbitrary dimensions, transparent integral representations are provided for the partition function ZN and the Helmholtz free energy FN as well as for two- and four-point correlation functions. The chemical potential is not a Lagrange multiplier regulating the average particle number but can be extracted from FN+1 -FN, as illustrated for a two-dimensional fermion gas.

  9. The colorimetric analysis of anti-tuberculosis fixed-dose combination tablets and capsules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellard, G A

    1999-11-01

    The perceived need to demonstrate whether or not the actual amounts of rifampicin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide in fixed-dose combination tablets or capsules correspond to their stated drug contents. To adapt specific, robust and simple colorimetric methods that have been previously applied to measuring plasma and urinary rifampicin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide and ethambutol concentrations to estimate tablet and capsule drug contents. The methods were applied to the analysis of 14 commercially manufactured fixed-dose combinations: two capsule and three tablet formulations containing rifampicin and isoniazid; seven tablet formulations containing rifampicin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide; and two tablet formulations containing rifampicin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide and ethambutol. All the combined formulations contained near to their stated drug contents. Replicate analyses confirmed the excellent precision of the drug analyses. Such methods are not only rapid to perform but should be practical in many Third World situations with relatively modest laboratory facilities.

  10. Image Denoising Algorithm Combined with SGK Dictionary Learning and Principal Component Analysis Noise Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjing Zhao

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available SGK (sequential generalization of K-means dictionary learning denoising algorithm has the characteristics of fast denoising speed and excellent denoising performance. However, the noise standard deviation must be known in advance when using SGK algorithm to process the image. This paper presents a denoising algorithm combined with SGK dictionary learning and the principal component analysis (PCA noise estimation. At first, the noise standard deviation of the image is estimated by using the PCA noise estimation algorithm. And then it is used for SGK dictionary learning algorithm. Experimental results show the following: (1 The SGK algorithm has the best denoising performance compared with the other three dictionary learning algorithms. (2 The SGK algorithm combined with PCA is superior to the SGK algorithm combined with other noise estimation algorithms. (3 Compared with the original SGK algorithm, the proposed algorithm has higher PSNR and better denoising performance.

  11. Combined Measurement and QCD Analysis of the Inclusive ep Scattering Cross Sections at HERA

    CERN Document Server

    Aaron, F.D.; Abt, I.; Adamczyk, L.; Adamus, M.; Aldaya Martin, M.; Alexa, C.; Andreev, V.; Antonelli, S.; Antonioli, P.; Antonov, A.; Antunovic, B.; Arneodo, M.; Aushev, V.; Bachynska, O.; Backovic, S.; Baghdasaryan, A.; Bamberger, A.; Barakbaev, A.N.; Barbagli, G.; Bari, G.; Barreiro, F.; Barrelet, E.; Bartel, W.; Bartsch, D.; Basile, M.; Begzsuren, K.; Behnke, O.; Behr, J.; Behrens, U.; Bellagamba, L.; Belousov, A.; Bertolin, A.; Bhadra, S.; Bindi, M.; Bizot, J.C.; Blohm, C.; Bold, T.; Boos, E.G.; Borodin, M.; Borras, K.; Boscherini, D.; Bot, D.; Boudry, V.; Boutle, S.K.; Bozovic-Jelisavcic, I.; Bracinik, J.; Brandt, G.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brock, I.; Brownson, E.; Brugnera, R.; Brummer, N.; Bruncko, D.; Bruni, A.; Bruni, G.; Brzozowska, B.; Bunyatyan, A.; Buschhorn, G.; Bussey, P.J.; Butterworth, J.M.; Bylsma, B.; Bystritskaya, L.; Caldwell, A.; Campbell, A.J.; Cantun Avila, K.B.; Capua, M.; Carlin, R.; Catterall, C.D.; Cerny, K.; Cerny, V.; Chekanov, S.; Chekelian, V.; Cholewa, A.; Chwastowski, J.; Ciborowski, J.; Ciesielski, R.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Contin, A.; Contreras, J.G.; Cooper-Sarkar, A.M.; Coppola, N.; Corradi, M.; Corriveau, F.; Costa, M.; Coughlan, J.A.; Cozzika, G.; Cvach, J.; D'Agostini, G.; Dainton, J.B.; Dal Corso, F.; Daum, K.; Deak, M.; de Favereau, J.; Delcourt, B.; del Peso, J.; Delvax, J.; Dementiev, R.K.; De Pasquale, S.; Derrick, M.; Devenish, R.C.E.; De Wolf, E.A.; Diaconu, C.; Dobur, D.; Dodonov, V.; Dolgoshein, B.A.; Dossanov, A.; Doyle, A.T.; Drugakov, V.; Dubak, A.; Durkin, L.S.; Dusini, S.; Eckerlin, G.; Efremenko, V.; Egli, S.; Eisenberg, Y.; Eliseev, A.; Elsen, E.; Ermolov, P.F.; Eskreys, A.; Falkiewicz, A.; Fang, S.; Favart, L.; Fazio, S.; Fedotov, A.; Felst, R.; Feltesse, J.; Ferencei, J.; Ferrando, J.; Ferrero, M.I.; Figiel, J.; Fischer, D.J.; Fleischer, M.; Fomenko, A.; Forrest, M.; Foster, B.; Fourletov, S.; Gabathuler, E.; Galas, A.; Gallo, E.; Garfagnini, A.; Gayler, J.; Geiser, A.; Ghazaryan, S.; Gialas, I.; Gladilin, L.K.; Gladkov, D.; Glasman, C.; Glazov, A.; Glushkov, I.; Goerlich, L.; Gogitidze, N.; Golubkov, Yu.A.; Gottlicher, P.; Gouzevitch, M.; Grab, C.; Grabowska-Bold, I.; Grebenyuk, J.; Greenshaw, T.; Gregor, I.; Grell, B.R.; Grigorescu, G.; Grindhammer, G.; Grzelak, G.; Gwenlan, C.; Haas, T.; Habib, S.; Haidt, D.; Hain, W.; Hamatsu, R.; Hart, J.C.; Hartmann, H.; Hartner, G.; Helebrant, C.; Henderson, R.C.W.; Hennekemper, E.; Henschel, H.; Herbst, M.; Herrera, G.; Hildebrandt, M.; Hilger, E.; Hiller, K.H.; Hochman, D.; Hoffmann, D.; Holm, U.; Hori, R.; Horisberger, R.; Horton, K.; Hreus, T.; Huttmann, A.; Iacobucci, G.; Ibrahim, Z.A.; Iga, Y.; Ingbir, R.; Ishitsuka, M.; Jacquet, M.; Jakob, H.P.; Janssen, X.; Januschek, F.; Jimenez, M.; Jones, T.W.; Jonsson, L.; Jung, A.W.; Jung, H.; Jungst, M.; Kadenko, I.; Kahle, B.; Kamaluddin, B.; Kananov, S.; Kanno, T.; Kapichine, M.; Karshon, U.; Karstens, F.; Katkov, I.I.; Katzy, J.; Kaur, M.; Kaur, P.; Kenyon, I.R.; Keramidas, A.; Khein, L.A.; Kiesling, C.; Kim, J.Y.; Kisielewska, D.; Kitamura, S.; Klanner, R.; Klein, M.; Klein, U.; Kleinwort, C.; Kluge, T.; Knutsson, A.; Koffeman, E.; Kogler, R.; Kollar, D.; Kooijman, P.; Korol, Ie.; Korzhavina, I.A.; Kostka, P.; Kotanski, A.; Kotz, U.; Kowalski, H.; Kraemer, M.; Krastev, K.; Kretzschmar, J.; Kropivnitskaya, A.; Kruger, K.; Kulinski, P.; Kuprash, O.; Kutak, K.; Kuze, M.; Kuzmin, V.A.; Landon, M.P.J.; Lange, W.; Lastovicka-Medin, G.; Laycock, P.; Lebedev, A.; Lee, A.; Lendermann, V.; Levchenko, B.B.; Levonian, S.; Levy, A.; Li, G.; Libov, V.; Limentani, S.; Ling, T.Y.; Lipka, K.; Liptaj, A.; Lisovyi, M.; List, B.; List, J.; Lobodzinska, E.; Lohmann, W.; Lohr, B.; Lohrmann, E.; Loizides, J.H.; Loktionova, N.; Long, K.R.; Longhin, A.; Lontkovskyi, D.; Lopez-Fernandez, R.; Lubimov, V.; Lukasik, J.; Lukina, O.Yu.; Luzniak, P.; Maeda, J.; Magill, S.; Makankine, A.; Makarenko, I.; Malinovski, E.; Malka, J.; Mankel, R.; Marage, P.; Margotti, A.; Marini, G.; Marti, Ll.; Martin, J.F.; Martyn, H.U.; Mastroberardino, A.; Matsumoto, T.; Mattingly, M.C.K.; Maxfield, S.J.; Mehta, A.; Melzer-Pellmann, I.A.; Meyer, A.B.; Meyer, H.; Meyer, H.; Meyer, J.; Miglioranzi, S.; Mikocki, S.; Milcewicz-Mika, I.; Mohamad Idris, F.; Monaco, V.; Montanari, A.; Moreau, F.; Morozov, A.; Morris, J.D.; Morris, J.V.; Mozer, M.U.; Mudrinic, M.; Muller, K.; Murin, P.; Musgrave, B.; Nagano, K.; Namsoo, T.; Nania, R.; Naumann, Th.; Newman, P.R.; Nicholass, D.; Niebuhr, C.; Nigro, A.; Nikiforov, A.; Nikitin, D.; Ning, Y.; Noor, U.; Notz, D.; Nowak, G.; Nowak, K.; Nowak, R.J.; Nuncio-Quiroz, A.E.; Oh, B.Y.; Okazaki, N.; Oliver, K.; Olkiewicz, K.; Olsson, J.E.; Onishchuk, Yu.; Osman, S.; Ota, O.; Ozerov, D.; Palichik, V.; Panagoulias, I.; Pandurovic, M.; Papadopoulou, Th.; Papageorgiu, K.; Parenti, A.; Pascaud, C.; Patel, G.D.; Paul, E.; Pawlak, J.M.; Pawlik, B.; Pejchal, O.; Pelfer, P.G.; Pellegrino, A.; Perez, E.; Perlanski, W.; Perrey, H.; Petrukhin, A.; Picuric, I.; Piec, S.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Pitzl, D.; Placakyte, R.; Plucinski, P.; Pokorny, B.; Pokrovskiy, N.S.; Polifka, R.; Polini, A.; Povh, B.; Proskuryakov, A.S.; Przybycien, M.; Radescu, V.; Rahmat, A.J.; Raicevic, N.; Raspiareza, A.; Raval, A.; Ravdandorj, T.; Reeder, D.D.; Reimer, P.; Reisert, B.; Ren, Z.; Repond, J.; Ri, Y.D.; Rizvi, E.; Robertson, A.; Robmann, P.; Roland, B.; Roloff, P.; Ron, E.; Roosen, R.; Rostovtsev, A.; Rotaru, M.; Rubinsky, I.; Ruiz Tabasco, J.E.; Rusakov, S.; Ruspa, M.; Sacchi, R.; Salek, D.; Salii, A.; Samson, U.; Sankey, D.P.C.; Sartorelli, G.; Sauter, M.; Sauvan, E.; Savin, A.A.; Saxon, D.H.; Schioppa, M.; Schlenstedt, S.; Schleper, P.; Schmidke, W.B.; Schmitt, S.; Schneekloth, U.; Schoeffel, L.; Schonberg, V.; Schoning, A.; Schorner-Sadenius, T.; Schultz-Coulon, H.C.; Schwartz, J.; Sciulli, F.; Sefkow, F.; Shaw-West, R.N.; Shcheglova, L.M.; Shehzadi, R.; Shimizu, S.; Shtarkov, L.N.; Shushkevich, S.; Singh, I.; Skillicorn, I.O.; Sloan, T.; Slominski, W.; Smiljanic, I.; Smith, W.H.; Sola, V.; Solano, A.; Soloviev, Y.; Son, D.; Sopicki, P.; Sorokin, Iu.; Sosnovtsev, V.; South, D.; Spaskov, V.; Specka, A.; Spiridonov, A.; Stadie, H.; Stanco, L.; Staykova, Z.; Steder, M.; Stella, B.; Stern, A.; Stewart, T.P.; Stifutkin, A.; Stoicea, G.; Stopa, P.; Straumann, U.; Suchkov, S.; Sunar, D.; Susinno, G.; Suszycki, L.; Sykora, T.; Sztuk, J.; Szuba, D.; Szuba, J.; Tapper, A.D.; Tassi, E.; Tchoulakov, V.; Terron, J.; Theedt, T.; Thompson, G.; Thompson, P.D.; Tiecke, H.; Tokushuku, K.; Toll, T.; Tomasz, F.; Tomaszewska, J.; Tran, T.H.; Traynor, D.; Trinh, T.N.; Truol, P.; Tsakov, I.; Tseepeldorj, B.; Tsurugai, T.; Turcato, M.; Turnau, J.; Tymieniecka, T.; Urban, K.; Uribe-Estrada, C.; Valkarova, A.; Vallee, C.; Van Mechelen, P.; Vargas Trevino, A.; Vazdik, Y.; Vazquez, M.; Verbytskyi, A.; Viazlo, V.; Vinokurova, S.; Vlasov, N.N.; Volchinski, V.; Volynets, O.; von den Driesch, M.; Walczak, R.; Wan Abdullah, W.A.T.; Wegener, D.; Whitmore, J.J.; Whyte, J.; Wiggers, L.; Wing, M.; Wissing, Ch.; Wlasenko, M.; Wolf, G.; Wolfe, H.; Wrona, K.; Wunsch, E.; Yagues-Molina, A.G.; Yamada, S.; Yamazaki, Y.; Yoshida, R.; Youngman, C.; Zacek, J.; Zalesak, J.; Zarnecki, A.F.; Zawiejski, L.; Zeniaev, O.; Zeuner, W.; Zhang, Z.; Zhautykov, B.O.; Zhokin, A.; Zhou, C.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, T.; Zohrabyan, H.; Zolko, M.; Zomer, F.; Zotkin, D.S.

    2010-01-01

    A combination is presented of the inclusive deep inelastic cross sections measured by the H1 and ZEUS Collaborations in neutral and charged current unpolarised ep scattering at HERA during the period 1994-2000. The data span six orders of magnitude in negative four-momentum-transfer squared, Q^2, and in Bjorken x. The combination method used takes the correlations of systematic uncertainties into account, resulting in an improved accuracy. The combined data are the sole input in a NLO QCD analysis which determines a new set of parton distributions HERAPDF1.0 with small experimental uncertainties. This set includes an estimate of the model and parametrisation uncertainties of the fit result.

  12. Integrated analysis of the molecular action of Vorinostat identifies epi-sensitised targets for combination therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Jodie F; Lappin, Katrina; Liberante, Fabio; Kettyle, Laura M; Matchett, Kyle B; Thompson, Alexander; Mills, Ken I

    2017-09-15

    Several histone deacetylase inhibitors including Vorinostat have received FDA approval for the treatment of haematological malignancies. However, data from these trials indicate that Vorinostat has limited efficacy as a monotherapy, prompting the need for rational design of combination therapies. A number of epi-sensitised pathways, including sonic hedgehog (SHH), were identified in AML cells by integration of global patterns of histone H3 lysine 9 (H3K9) acetylation with transcriptomic analysis following Vorinostat-treatment. Direct targeting of the SHH pathway with SANT-1, following Vorinostat induced epi-sensitisation, resulted in synergistic cell death of AML cells. In addition, xenograft studies demonstrated that combination therapy induced a marked reduction in leukemic burden compared to control or single agents. Together, the data supports epi-sensitisation as a potential component of the strategy for the rational development of combination therapies in AML.

  13. The role of ensemble-based statistics in variational assimilation of cloud-affected observations from infrared imagers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Joshua; Vandenberghe, Francois; Jung, Byoung-Jo; Snyder, Chris

    2017-04-01

    Effective assimilation of cloud-affected radiance observations from space-borne imagers, with the aim of improving cloud analysis and forecasting, has proven to be difficult. Large observation biases, nonlinear observation operators, and non-Gaussian innovation statistics present many challenges. Ensemble-variational data assimilation (EnVar) systems offer the benefits of flow-dependent background error statistics from an ensemble, and the ability of variational minimization to handle nonlinearity. The specific benefits of ensemble statistics, relative to static background errors more commonly used in variational systems, have not been quantified for the problem of assimilating cloudy radiances. A simple experiment framework is constructed with a regional NWP model and operational variational data assimilation system, to provide the basis understanding the importance of ensemble statistics in cloudy radiance assimilation. Restricting the observations to those corresponding to clouds in the background forecast leads to innovations that are more Gaussian. The number of large innovations is reduced compared to the more general case of all observations, but not eliminated. The Huber norm is investigated to handle the fat tails of the distributions, and allow more observations to be assimilated without the need for strict background checks that eliminate them. Comparing assimilation using only ensemble background error statistics with assimilation using only static background error statistics elucidates the importance of the ensemble statistics. Although the cost functions in both experiments converge to similar values after sufficient outer-loop iterations, the resulting cloud water, ice, and snow content are greater in the ensemble-based analysis. The subsequent forecasts from the ensemble-based analysis also retain more condensed water species, indicating that the local environment is more supportive of clouds. In this presentation we provide details that explain the

  14. On the contribution of local feedback mechanisms to the range of climate sensitivity in two GCM ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webb, M.J.; Senior, C.A.; Sexton, D.M.H.; Ingram, W.J.; Williams, K.D.; Ringer, M.A. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom); McAvaney, B.J.; Colman, R. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC), Melbourne (Australia); Soden, B.J. [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL (United States); Gudgel, R.; Knutson, T. [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Emori, S.; Ogura, T. [National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Tsushima, Y. [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC), Kanagawa (Japan); Andronova, N. [University of Michigan, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Li, B. [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL (United States); Musat, I.; Bony, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris (France); Taylor, K.E. [Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2006-07-15

    Global and local feedback analysis techniques have been applied to two ensembles of mixed layer equilibrium CO{sub 2} doubling climate change experiments, from the CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project) and QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions) projects. Neither of these new ensembles shows evidence of a statistically significant change in the ensemble mean or variance in global mean climate sensitivity when compared with the results from the mixed layer models quoted in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Global mean feedback analysis of these two ensembles confirms the large contribution made by inter-model differences in cloud feedbacks to those in climate sensitivity in earlier studies; net cloud feedbacks are responsible for 66% of the inter-model variance in the total feedback in the CFMIP ensemble and 85% in the QUMP ensemble. The ensemble mean global feedback components are all statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles, except for the clear-sky shortwave feedback which is stronger in the CFMIP ensemble. While ensemble variances of the shortwave cloud feedback and both clear-sky feedback terms are larger in CFMIP, there is considerable overlap in the cloud feedback ranges; QUMP spans 80% or more of the CFMIP ranges in longwave and shortwave cloud feedback. We introduce a local cloud feedback classification system which distinguishes different types of cloud feedbacks on the basis of the relative strengths of their longwave and shortwave components, and interpret these in terms of responses of different cloud types diagnosed by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project simulator. In the CFMIP ensemble, areas where low-top cloud changes constitute the largest cloud response are responsible for 59% of the contribution from cloud feedback to the variance in the total feedback. A similar figure is found for the QUMP ensemble. Areas of positive low cloud feedback (associated with reductions in low level

  15. A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

  16. Combining trace elements micro-analysis in deposited dredged sediments: EPMA and μ-XRF analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poitevin, A; Lerouge, C; Wille, G; Bataillard, P; Quinn, P; Hennet, L

    2012-01-01

    Since deposited dredged sediments are rich in metallic contaminants, they present a risk for environment. This work aims to study dredged sediments chemical composition, identify metal-carrier minerals and understand their mobility. Combining chemical and spectroscopic techniques at multi-scale for an integrative approach of trace elements (zinc, lead, iron) behaviour is therefore necessary. The global mineralogy and the chemistry of the sediment were determined by X-ray diffraction and fluorescence (XRF), respectively. Zn and Pb enriched fractions were separated using a sequential chemical extraction procedure and measured by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission and mass spectroscopy. Microanalyses using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), electron microprobe microanalysis (EPMA), combined with synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence (μ-XRF) were carried out to characterize mineralogical phases and identify Zn and Pb carrier minerals. Iron oxyhydroxides and iron sulphides were consistently identify as Zn and Pb carriers. The assumption that carbonate fraction was the major Zn carried phase, as demonstrated by chemical extraction results, was not verified by EPMA or μ-XRF.

  17. Completed Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition: a Robust Signal Processing Tool to Identify Sequence Strata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purba, H.; Musu, J. T.; Diria, S. A.; Permono, W.; Sadjati, O.; Sopandi, I.; Ruzi, F.

    2018-03-01

    Well logging data provide many geological information and its trends resemble nonlinear or non-stationary signals. As long well log data recorded, there will be external factors can interfere or influence its signal resolution. A sensitive signal analysis is required to improve the accuracy of logging interpretation which it becomes an important thing to determine sequence stratigraphy. Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) is one of nonlinear and non-stationary signal analysis method which decomposes complex signal into a series of intrinsic mode function (IMF). Gamma Ray and Spontaneous Potential well log parameters decomposed into IMF-1 up to IMF-10 and each of its combination and correlation makes physical meaning identification. It identifies the stratigraphy and cycle sequence and provides an effective signal treatment method for sequence interface. This method was applied to BRK- 30 and BRK-13 well logging data. The result shows that the combination of IMF-5, IMF-6, and IMF-7 pattern represent short-term and middle-term while IMF-9 and IMF-10 represent the long-term sedimentation which describe distal front and delta front facies, and inter-distributary mouth bar facies, respectively. Thus, CEEMD clearly can determine the different sedimentary layer interface and better identification of the cycle of stratigraphic base level.

  18. The classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Xuanmin; Pang Shengshi; Wu Shengjun; Liu Quanhui

    2011-01-01

    In this Letter, we investigate the classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble. We define a quantity called ensemble classicality based on classical cloning strategy (ECCC) to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. An ensemble of commuting states has a unit ECCC, while a general ensemble can have a ECCC less than 1. We also study how quantum an ensemble is by defining a related quantity called quantumness. We find that the classicality of an ensemble is closely related to how perfectly the ensemble can be cloned, and that the quantumness of the ensemble used in a quantum key distribution (QKD) protocol is exactly the attainable lower bound of the error rate in the sifted key. - Highlights: → A quantity is defined to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. → The classicality of an ensemble is closely related to the cloning performance. → Another quantity is also defined to investigate how quantum an ensemble is. → This quantity gives the lower bound of the error rate in a QKD protocol.

  19. Exploring and Listening to Chinese Classical Ensembles in General Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenzhuo

    2017-01-01

    Music diversity is valued in theory, but the extent to which it is efficiently presented in music class remains limited. Within this article, I aim to bridge this gap by introducing four genres of Chinese classical ensembles--Qin and Xiao duets, Jiang Nan bamboo and silk ensembles, Cantonese ensembles, and contemporary Chinese orchestras--into the…

  20. Combined Scintigraphy and Tumor Marker Analysis Predicts Unfavorable Histopathology of Neuroblastic Tumors with High Accuracy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Peter Fendler

    Full Text Available Our aim was to improve the prediction of unfavorable histopathology (UH in neuroblastic tumors through combined imaging and biochemical parameters.123I-MIBG SPECT and MRI was performed before surgical resection or biopsy in 47 consecutive pediatric patients with neuroblastic tumor. Semi-quantitative tumor-to-liver count-rate ratio (TLCRR, MRI tumor size and margins, urine catecholamine and NSE blood levels of neuron specific enolase (NSE were recorded. Accuracy of single and combined variables for prediction of UH was tested by ROC analysis with Bonferroni correction.34 of 47 patients had UH based on the International Neuroblastoma Pathology Classification (INPC. TLCRR and serum NSE both predicted UH with moderate accuracy. Optimal cut-off for TLCRR was 2.0, resulting in 68% sensitivity and 100% specificity (AUC-ROC 0.86, p < 0.001. Optimal cut-off for NSE was 25.8 ng/ml, resulting in 74% sensitivity and 85% specificity (AUC-ROC 0.81, p = 0.001. Combination of TLCRR/NSE criteria reduced false negative findings from 11/9 to only five, with improved sensitivity and specificity of 85% (AUC-ROC 0.85, p < 0.001.Strong 123I-MIBG uptake and high serum level of NSE were each predictive of UH. Combined analysis of both parameters improved the prediction of UH in patients with neuroblastic tumor. MRI parameters and urine catecholamine levels did not predict UH.