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Sample records for analysis combining ensemble

  1. Botnet analysis using ensemble classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anchit Bijalwan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the botnet traffic using Ensemble of classifier algorithm to find out bot evidence. We used ISCX dataset for training and testing purpose. We extracted the features of both training and testing datasets. After extracting the features of this dataset, we bifurcated these features into two classes, normal traffic and botnet traffic and provide labelling. Thereafter using modern data mining tool, we have applied ensemble of classifier algorithm. Our experimental results show that the performance for finding bot evidence using ensemble of classifiers is better than single classifier. Ensemble based classifiers perform better than single classifier by either combining powers of multiple algorithms or introducing diversification to the same classifier by varying input in bot analysis. Our results are showing that by using voting method of ensemble based classifier accuracy is increased up to 96.41% from 93.37%.

  2. ArrayMining: a modular web-application for microarray analysis combining ensemble and consensus methods with cross-study normalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasnogor Natalio

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical analysis of DNA microarray data provides a valuable diagnostic tool for the investigation of genetic components of diseases. To take advantage of the multitude of available data sets and analysis methods, it is desirable to combine both different algorithms and data from different studies. Applying ensemble learning, consensus clustering and cross-study normalization methods for this purpose in an almost fully automated process and linking different analysis modules together under a single interface would simplify many microarray analysis tasks. Results We present ArrayMining.net, a web-application for microarray analysis that provides easy access to a wide choice of feature selection, clustering, prediction, gene set analysis and cross-study normalization methods. In contrast to other microarray-related web-tools, multiple algorithms and data sets for an analysis task can be combined using ensemble feature selection, ensemble prediction, consensus clustering and cross-platform data integration. By interlinking different analysis tools in a modular fashion, new exploratory routes become available, e.g. ensemble sample classification using features obtained from a gene set analysis and data from multiple studies. The analysis is further simplified by automatic parameter selection mechanisms and linkage to web tools and databases for functional annotation and literature mining. Conclusion ArrayMining.net is a free web-application for microarray analysis combining a broad choice of algorithms based on ensemble and consensus methods, using automatic parameter selection and integration with annotation databases.

  3. Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kann

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011, provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min and spatial (1 km resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011. The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR which yields a statistical mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion for Gaussian distributed continuous

  4. A modified algorithm of the combined ensemble empirical mode decomposition and independent component analysis for the removal of cardiac artifacts from neuromuscular electrical signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuronal and muscular electrical signals contain useful information about the neuromuscular system, with which researchers have been investigating the relationship of various neurological disorders and the neuromuscular system. However, neuromuscular signals can be critically contaminated by cardiac electrical activity (CEA) such as the electrocardiogram (ECG) which confounds data analysis. The purpose of our study is to provide a method for removing cardiac electrical artifacts from the neuromuscular signals recorded. We propose a new method for cardiac artifact removal which modifies the algorithm combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and independent component analysis (ICA). We compare our approach with a cubic smoothing spline method and the previous combined EEMD and ICA for various signal-to-noise ratio measures in simulated noisy physiological signals using a surface electromyogram (sEMG). Finally, we apply the proposed method to two real-life sets of data such as sEMG with ECG artifacts and ambulatory dog cardiac autonomic nervous signals measured from the ganglia near the heart, which are also contaminated with CEA. Our method can not only extract and remove artifacts, but can also preserve the spectral content of the neuromuscular signals. (paper)

  5. On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong

    2010-09-19

    The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) [1, 2, 3, 4] is a popular method for data assimilation in high dimensional systems (e.g., geophysics models). Essentially the EnSRF is a Monte Carlo implementation of the conventional Kalman filter (KF) [5, 6]. It is mainly different from the KF at the prediction steps, where it is some ensembles, rather then the means and covariance matrices, of the system state that are propagated forward. In doing this, the EnSRF is computationally more efficient than the KF, since propagating a covariance matrix forward in high dimensional systems is prohibitively expensive. In addition, the EnSRF is also very convenient in implementation. By propagating the ensembles of the system state, the EnSRF can be directly applied to nonlinear systems without any change in comparison to the assimilation procedures in linear systems. However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

  6. Space Applications for Ensemble Detection and Analysis Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Detection is both a measurement technique and analysis tool. Like a prism that separates light into spectral bands, an ensemble detector mixes a signal...

  7. Gradient Flow Analysis on MILC HISQ Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Hetrick, J E; Komijani, J; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Oktay, M; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S; Zhou, R

    2014-01-01

    We report on a preliminary scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ are computed using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of $\\langle E \\rangle$ on each ensemble. Then both scales and the meson masses $aM_\\pi$ and $aM_K$ are adjusted for mistunings in the charm mass. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor series ansatz in the lattice spacing, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. Our preliminary results are $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1422(7)$fm and $w_0 = 0.1732(10)$fm. We also find the continuum mass-dependence of $w_0$.

  8. Gradient Flow Analysis on MILC HISQ Ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Nathan [Washington U., St. Louis; Bazavov, Alexei [Brookhaven; Bernard, Claude [Washington U., St. Louis; DeTar, Carleton [Utah U.; Foley, Justin [Utah U.; Gottlieb, Steven [Indiana U.; Heller, Urs M. [APS, New York; Hetrick, J. E. [U. Pacific, Stockton; Komijani, Javad [Washington U., St. Louis; Laiho, Jack [Syracuse U.; Levkova, Ludmila [Utah U.; Oktay, M. B. [Utah U.; Sugar, Robert [UC, Santa Barbara; Toussaint, Doug [Arizona U.; Van de Water, Ruth S. [Fermilab; Zhou, Ran [Fermilab

    2014-11-14

    We report on a preliminary scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ are computed using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of $\\langle E \\rangle$ on each ensemble. Then both scales and the meson masses $aM_\\pi$ and $aM_K$ are adjusted for mistunings in the charm mass. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor series ansatz in the lattice spacing, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. Our preliminary results are $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1422(7)$fm and $w_0 = 0.1732(10)$fm. We also find the continuum mass-dependence of $w_0$.

  9. Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    V S Prasad; C J Johny

    2016-04-01

    Performance of a hybrid assimilation system combining 3D Var based NGFS (NCMRWF Global ForecastSystem) with ETR (Ensemble Transform with Rescaling) based Global Ensemble Forecast (GEFS) ofresolution T-190L28 is investigated. The experiment is conducted for a period of one week in June 2013and forecast skills over different spatial domains are compared with respect to mean analysis state.Rainfall forecast is verified over Indian region against combined observations of IMD and NCMRWF.Hybrid assimilation produced marginal improvements in overall forecast skill in comparison with 3DVar. Hybrid experiment made significant improvement in wind forecasts in all the regions on verificationagainst mean analysis. The verification of forecasts with radiosonde observations also show improvementin wind forecasts with the hybrid assimilation. On verification against observations, hybrid experimentshows more improvement in temperature and wind forecasts at upper levels. Both hybrid and operational3D Var failed in prediction of extreme rainfall event over Uttarakhand on 17 June, 2013.

  10. Analysis of mesoscale forecasts using ensemble methods

    CERN Document Server

    Gross, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Mesoscale forecasts are now routinely performed as elements of operational forecasts and their outputs do appear convincing. However, despite their realistic appearance at times the comparison to observations is less favorable. At the grid scale these forecasts often do not compare well with observations. This is partly due to the chaotic system underlying the weather. Another key problem is that it is impossible to evaluate the risk of making decisions based on these forecasts because they do not provide a measure of confidence. Ensembles provide this information in the ensemble spread and quartiles. However, running global ensembles at the meso or sub mesoscale involves substantial computational resources. National centers do run such ensembles, but the subject of this publication is a method which requires significantly less computation. The ensemble enhanced mesoscale system presented here aims not at the creation of an improved mesoscale forecast model. Also it is not to create an improved ensemble syste...

  11. Ensemble Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio

    2012-03-01

    proposed to explain the characteristics and the successful application of ensembles to different application domains. For instance, Allwein, Schapire, and Singer interpreted the improved generalization capabilities of ensembles of learning machines in the framework of large margin classifiers [4,177], Kleinberg in the context of stochastic discrimination theory [112], and Breiman and Friedman in the light of the bias-variance analysis borrowed from classical statistics [21,70]. Empirical studies showed that both in classification and regression problems, ensembles improve on single learning machines, and moreover large experimental studies compared the effectiveness of different ensemble methods on benchmark data sets [10,11,49,188]. The interest in this research area is motivated also by the availability of very fast computers and networks of workstations at a relatively low cost that allow the implementation and the experimentation of complex ensemble methods using off-the-shelf computer platforms. However, as explained in Section 26.2 there are deeper reasons to use ensembles of learning machines, motivated by the intrinsic characteristics of the ensemble methods. The main aim of this chapter is to introduce ensemble methods and to provide an overview and a bibliography of the main areas of research, without pretending to be exhaustive or to explain the detailed characteristics of each ensemble method. The paper is organized as follows. In the next section, the main theoretical and practical reasons for combining multiple learners are introduced. Section 26.3 depicts the main taxonomies on ensemble methods proposed in the literature. In Section 26.4 and 26.5, we present an overview of the main supervised ensemble methods reported in the literature, adopting a simple taxonomy, originally proposed in Ref. [201]. Applications of ensemble methods are only marginally considered, but a specific section on some relevant applications of ensemble methods in astronomy and

  12. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. AghaKouchak

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.

  13. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wohling, Thomas [NON LANL

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  14. Ensemble vs. time averages in financial time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seemann, Lars; Hua, Jia-Chen; McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

    2012-12-01

    Empirical analysis of financial time series suggests that the underlying stochastic dynamics are not only non-stationary, but also exhibit non-stationary increments. However, financial time series are commonly analyzed using the sliding interval technique that assumes stationary increments. We propose an alternative approach that is based on an ensemble over trading days. To determine the effects of time averaging techniques on analysis outcomes, we create an intraday activity model that exhibits periodic variable diffusion dynamics and we assess the model data using both ensemble and time averaging techniques. We find that ensemble averaging techniques detect the underlying dynamics correctly, whereas sliding intervals approaches fail. As many traded assets exhibit characteristic intraday volatility patterns, our work implies that ensemble averages approaches will yield new insight into the study of financial markets’ dynamics.

  15. Development of the Ensemble Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (ENAAPS) and its application of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) in support of aerosol forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    J. I. Rubin; Reid, J. S.; Hansen, J A; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Hoar, T. J.; Hogan, T; Lynch, P.; McLay, J; Reynolds, C. A.; W. R. Sessions; D. L. Westphal; Zhang, J.

    2015-01-01

    An ensemble-based forecast and data assimilation system has been developed for use in Navy aerosol forecasting. The system makes use of an ensemble of the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (ENAAPS) at 1° × 1°, combined with an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter from NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The base ENAAPS-DART system discussed in this work utilizes the Navy Operational Global Analysis Prediction System (NOGAPS) meteorological ensemble to ...

  16. Analysis and optimization of weighted ensemble sampling

    CERN Document Server

    Aristoff, David

    2016-01-01

    We give a mathematical framework for weighted ensemble (WE) sampling, a binning and resampling technique for efficiently computing probabilities in molecular dynamics. We prove that WE sampling is unbiased in a very general setting that includes adaptive binning. We show that when WE is used for stationary calculations in tandem with a Markov state model (MSM), the MSM can be used to optimize the allocation of replicas in the bins.

  17. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. AghaKouchak

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this model, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The model includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for not only hydrological processes, but also for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity.

  18. Ensemble Methods in Data Mining Improving Accuracy Through Combining Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Seni, Giovanni

    2010-01-01

    This book is aimed at novice and advanced analytic researchers and practitioners -- especially in Engineering, Statistics, and Computer Science. Those with little exposure to ensembles will learn why and how to employ this breakthrough method, and advanced practitioners will gain insight into building even more powerful models. Throughout, snippets of code in R are provided to illustrate the algorithms described and to encourage the reader to try the techniques. The authors are industry experts in data mining and machine learning who are also adjunct professors and popular speakers. Although e

  19. Heterogeneous Ensemble Combination Search Using Genetic Algorithm for Class Imbalanced Data Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, Mohammad Nazmul; Noman, Nasimul; Berretta, Regina; Moscato, Pablo

    2016-01-01

    Classification of datasets with imbalanced sample distributions has always been a challenge. In general, a popular approach for enhancing classification performance is the construction of an ensemble of classifiers. However, the performance of an ensemble is dependent on the choice of constituent base classifiers. Therefore, we propose a genetic algorithm-based search method for finding the optimum combination from a pool of base classifiers to form a heterogeneous ensemble. The algorithm, called GA-EoC, utilises 10 fold-cross validation on training data for evaluating the quality of each candidate ensembles. In order to combine the base classifiers decision into ensemble's output, we used the simple and widely used majority voting approach. The proposed algorithm, along with the random sub-sampling approach to balance the class distribution, has been used for classifying class-imbalanced datasets. Additionally, if a feature set was not available, we used the (α, β) - k Feature Set method to select a better subset of features for classification. We have tested GA-EoC with three benchmarking datasets from the UCI-Machine Learning repository, one Alzheimer's disease dataset and a subset of the PubFig database of Columbia University. In general, the performance of the proposed method on the chosen datasets is robust and better than that of the constituent base classifiers and many other well-known ensembles. Based on our empirical study we claim that a genetic algorithm is a superior and reliable approach to heterogeneous ensemble construction and we expect that the proposed GA-EoC would perform consistently in other cases. PMID:26764911

  20. Maximization of seasonal forecasts performance combining Grand Multi-Model Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandri, Andrea; De Felice, Matteo; Catalano, Franco; Lee, Doo Young; Yoo, Jin Ho; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin

    2014-05-01

    Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model errors. Previous works suggested that the potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplify with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. In this work we combine the two Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs) independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (CliPAS/APCC) communities. To this aim, all the possible multi-model combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from CliPAS/APCC have been evaluated. The grand ENSEMBLES-CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model enhances significantly the skill compared to previous estimates from the contributing MMEs. The combinations of SPSs maximizing the skill that is currently attainable for specific predictands/phenomena is evaluated. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and CliPAS/APCC models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The number and selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration. As an example for the tropical Pacific, the maximum performance is obtained with only the combination of 5-to-6 SPSs from the grand ENSEMBLES-CliPAS/APCC MME. With particular focus over Tropical Pacific, the relationship between performance and bias of the grand-MME combinations is evaluated. The skill of the grand-MME combinations over Euro-Mediterranean and East-Asia regions is further evaluated as a function of the capability of the selected contributing SPSs to forecast anomalies of the Polar/Siberian highs during winter and of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation during summer. Our results indicate that, combining SPSs from independent MME sources is a good

  1. ANALYSIS OF SST IMAGES BY WEIGHTED ENSEMBLE TRANSFORM KALMAN FILTER

    OpenAIRE

    Sai, Gorthi; Beyou, Sébastien; Memin, Etienne

    2011-01-01

    International audience This paper presents a novel, efficient scheme for the analysis of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) ocean images. We consider the estimation of the velocity fields and vorticity values from a sequence of oceanic images. The contribution of this paper lies in proposing a novel, robust and simple approach based onWeighted Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (WETKF) data assimilation technique for the analysis of real SST images, that may contain coast regions or large areas o...

  2. Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Sippel

    2015-09-01

    In conclusion, our study shows that EVT and empirical estimates based on numerical simulations can indeed be used to productively inform each other, for instance to derive appropriate EVT parameters for short observational time series. Further, the combination of ensemble simulations with EVT allows us to significantly reduce the number of simulations needed for statements about the tails.

  3. Multi-model ensemble analysis of Pacific and Atlantic SST variability in unperturbed climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchettin, D.; Bothe, O.; Rubino, A.; Jungclaus, J. H.

    2016-08-01

    We assess internally-generated climate variability expressed by a multi-model ensemble of unperturbed climate simulations. We focus on basin-scale annual-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from twenty multicentennial pre-industrial control simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Ensemble spatial patterns of regional modes of variability and ensemble (cross-)wavelet-based phase-frequency diagrams of corresponding paired indices summarize the ensemble characteristics of inter-basin and regional-to-global SST interactions on a broad range of timescales. Results reveal that tropical and North Pacific SSTs are a source of simulated interannual global SST variability. The North Atlantic-average SST fluctuates in rough co-phase with the global-average SST on multidecadal timescales, which makes it difficult to discern the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) signal from the global signal. The two leading modes of tropical and North Pacific SST variability converge towards co-phase in the multi-model ensemble, indicating that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) results from a combination of tropical and extra-tropical processes. No robust inter- or multi-decadal inter-basin SST interaction arises from our ensemble analysis between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, though specific phase-locked fluctuations occur between Pacific and Atlantic modes of SST variability in individual simulations and/or periods within individual simulations. The multidecadal modulation of PDO by the AMV identified in observations appears to be a recurrent but not typical feature of ensemble-simulated internal variability. Understanding the mechanism(s) and circumstances favoring such inter-basin SST phasing and related uncertainties in their simulated representation could help constraining uncertainty in decadal climate predictions.

  4. Monthly water balance modeling: Probabilistic, possibilistic and hybrid methods for model combination and ensemble simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasseri, M.; Zahraie, B.; Ajami, N. K.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2014-04-01

    Multi-model (ensemble, or committee) techniques have shown to be an effective way to improve hydrological prediction performance and provide uncertainty information. This paper presents two novel multi-model ensemble techniques, one probabilistic, Modified Bootstrap Ensemble Model (MBEM), and one possibilistic, FUzzy C-means Ensemble based on data Pattern (FUCEP). The paper also explores utilization of the Ordinary Kriging (OK) method as a multi-model combination scheme for hydrological simulation/prediction. These techniques are compared against Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Weighted Average (WA) methods to demonstrate their effectiveness. The mentioned techniques are applied to the three monthly water balance models used to generate stream flow simulations for two mountainous basins in the South-West of Iran. For both basins, the results demonstrate that MBEM and FUCEP generate more skillful and reliable probabilistic predictions, outperforming all the other techniques. We have also found that OK did not demonstrate any improved skill as a simple combination method over WA scheme for neither of the basins.

  5. A one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhiyong; Wu, Juan; Lu, Guihua

    2016-09-01

    Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an effective tool for providing advanced flood forecasting. However, the uncertainties in precipitation forecasts are still considerable. To address uncertainties, a one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system, with a combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting, has been developed. It consists of three high-resolution single models and four sets of ensemble forecasts from the THORPEX Interactive Grande Global Ensemble database. The former provides higher forecasting accuracy, while the latter provides the range of forecasts. The combined precipitation forecasting was then implemented to drive the Chinese National Flood Forecasting System in the 2007 and 2008 Huai River flood hindcast analysis. The encouraging results demonstrated that the system can clearly give a set of forecasting hydrographs for a flood event and has a promising relative stability in discharge peaks and timing for warning purposes. It not only gives a deterministic prediction, but also generates probability forecasts. Even though the signal was not persistent until four days before the peak discharge was observed in the 2007 flood event, the visualization based on threshold exceedance provided clear and concise essential warning information at an early stage. Forecasters could better prepare for the possibility of a flood at an early stage, and then issue an actual warning if the signal strengthened. This process may provide decision support for civil protection authorities. In future studies, different weather forecasts will be assigned various weight coefficients to represent the covariance of predictors and the extremes of distributions.

  6. Comprehensive Study on Lexicon-based Ensemble Classification Sentiment Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łukasz Augustyniak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We propose a novel method for counting sentiment orientation that outperforms supervised learning approaches in time and memory complexity and is not statistically significantly different from them in accuracy. Our method consists of a novel approach to generating unigram, bigram and trigram lexicons. The proposed method, called frequentiment, is based on calculating the frequency of features (words in the document and averaging their impact on the sentiment score as opposed to documents that do not contain these features. Afterwards, we use ensemble classification to improve the overall accuracy of the method. What is important is that the frequentiment-based lexicons with sentiment threshold selection outperform other popular lexicons and some supervised learners, while being 3–5 times faster than the supervised approach. We compare 37 methods (lexicons, ensembles with lexicon’s predictions as input and supervised learners applied to 10 Amazon review data sets and provide the first statistical comparison of the sentiment annotation methods that include ensemble approaches. It is one of the most comprehensive comparisons of domain sentiment analysis in the literature.

  7. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  8. Ovis: A framework for visual analysis of ocean forecast ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2014-08-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  9. Ensemble analysis of adaptive compressed genome sequencing strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Acquiring genomes at single-cell resolution has many applications such as in the study of microbiota. However, deep sequencing and assembly of all of millions of cells in a sample is prohibitively costly. A property that can come to rescue is that deep sequencing of every cell should not be necessary to capture all distinct genomes, as the majority of cells are biological replicates. Biologically important samples are often sparse in that sense. In this paper, we propose an adaptive compressed method, also known as distilled sensing, to capture all distinct genomes in a sparse microbial community with reduced sequencing effort. As opposed to group testing in which the number of distinct events is often constant and sparsity is equivalent to rarity of an event, sparsity in our case means scarcity of distinct events in comparison to the data size. Previously, we introduced the problem and proposed a distilled sensing solution based on the breadth first search strategy. We simulated the whole process which constrained our ability to study the behavior of the algorithm for the entire ensemble due to its computational intensity. Results In this paper, we modify our previous breadth first search strategy and introduce the depth first search strategy. Instead of simulating the entire process, which is intractable for a large number of experiments, we provide a dynamic programming algorithm to analyze the behavior of the method for the entire ensemble. The ensemble analysis algorithm recursively calculates the probability of capturing every distinct genome and also the expected total sequenced nucleotides for a given population profile. Our results suggest that the expected total sequenced nucleotides grows proportional to log of the number of cells and proportional linearly with the number of distinct genomes. The probability of missing a genome depends on its abundance and the ratio of its size over the maximum genome size in the sample. The modified resource

  10. Effective Visualization of Temporal Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Lihua; Healey, Christopher G; Bass, Steffen A

    2016-01-01

    An ensemble is a collection of related datasets, called members, built from a series of runs of a simulation or an experiment. Ensembles are large, temporal, multidimensional, and multivariate, making them difficult to analyze. Another important challenge is visualizing ensembles that vary both in space and time. Initial visualization techniques displayed ensembles with a small number of members, or presented an overview of an entire ensemble, but without potentially important details. Recently, researchers have suggested combining these two directions, allowing users to choose subsets of members to visualization. This manual selection process places the burden on the user to identify which members to explore. We first introduce a static ensemble visualization system that automatically helps users locate interesting subsets of members to visualize. We next extend the system to support analysis and visualization of temporal ensembles. We employ 3D shape comparison, cluster tree visualization, and glyph based visualization to represent different levels of detail within an ensemble. This strategy is used to provide two approaches for temporal ensemble analysis: (1) segment based ensemble analysis, to capture important shape transition time-steps, clusters groups of similar members, and identify common shape changes over time across multiple members; and (2) time-step based ensemble analysis, which assumes ensemble members are aligned in time by combining similar shapes at common time-steps. Both approaches enable users to interactively visualize and analyze a temporal ensemble from different perspectives at different levels of detail. We demonstrate our techniques on an ensemble studying matter transition from hadronic gas to quark-gluon plasma during gold-on-gold particle collisions. PMID:26529728

  11. Effective Visualization of Temporal Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Lihua; Healey, Christopher G; Bass, Steffen A

    2016-01-01

    An ensemble is a collection of related datasets, called members, built from a series of runs of a simulation or an experiment. Ensembles are large, temporal, multidimensional, and multivariate, making them difficult to analyze. Another important challenge is visualizing ensembles that vary both in space and time. Initial visualization techniques displayed ensembles with a small number of members, or presented an overview of an entire ensemble, but without potentially important details. Recently, researchers have suggested combining these two directions, allowing users to choose subsets of members to visualization. This manual selection process places the burden on the user to identify which members to explore. We first introduce a static ensemble visualization system that automatically helps users locate interesting subsets of members to visualize. We next extend the system to support analysis and visualization of temporal ensembles. We employ 3D shape comparison, cluster tree visualization, and glyph based visualization to represent different levels of detail within an ensemble. This strategy is used to provide two approaches for temporal ensemble analysis: (1) segment based ensemble analysis, to capture important shape transition time-steps, clusters groups of similar members, and identify common shape changes over time across multiple members; and (2) time-step based ensemble analysis, which assumes ensemble members are aligned in time by combining similar shapes at common time-steps. Both approaches enable users to interactively visualize and analyze a temporal ensemble from different perspectives at different levels of detail. We demonstrate our techniques on an ensemble studying matter transition from hadronic gas to quark-gluon plasma during gold-on-gold particle collisions.

  12. Computer-aided detection (CAD) of breast masses in mammography: combined detection and ensemble classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We propose a novel computer-aided detection (CAD) framework of breast masses in mammography. To increase detection sensitivity for various types of mammographic masses, we propose the combined use of different detection algorithms. In particular, we develop a region-of-interest combination mechanism that integrates detection information gained from unsupervised and supervised detection algorithms. Also, to significantly reduce the number of false-positive (FP) detections, the new ensemble classification algorithm is developed. Extensive experiments have been conducted on a benchmark mammogram database. Results show that our combined detection approach can considerably improve the detection sensitivity with a small loss of FP rate, compared to representative detection algorithms previously developed for mammographic CAD systems. The proposed ensemble classification solution also has a dramatic impact on the reduction of FP detections; as much as 70% (from 15 to 4.5 per image) at only cost of 4.6% sensitivity loss (from 90.0% to 85.4%). Moreover, our proposed CAD method performs as well or better (70.7% and 80.0% per 1.5 and 3.5 FPs per image respectively) than the results of mammography CAD algorithms previously reported in the literature. (paper)

  13. Ensemble regularized linear discriminant analysis classifier for P300-based brain-computer interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onishi, Akinari; Natsume, Kiyohisa

    2013-01-01

    This paper demonstrates a better classification performance of an ensemble classifier using a regularized linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI). The ensemble classifier with an LDA is sensitive to the lack of training data because covariance matrices are estimated imprecisely. One of the solution against the lack of training data is to employ a regularized LDA. Thus we employed the regularized LDA for the ensemble classifier of the P300-based BCI. The principal component analysis (PCA) was used for the dimension reduction. As a result, an ensemble regularized LDA classifier showed significantly better classification performance than an ensemble un-regularized LDA classifier. Therefore the proposed ensemble regularized LDA classifier is robust against the lack of training data.

  14. Ensemble approach combining multiple methods improves human transcription start site prediction

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dineen, David G

    2010-11-30

    Abstract Background The computational prediction of transcription start sites is an important unsolved problem. Some recent progress has been made, but many promoters, particularly those not associated with CpG islands, are still difficult to locate using current methods. These methods use different features and training sets, along with a variety of machine learning techniques and result in different prediction sets. Results We demonstrate the heterogeneity of current prediction sets, and take advantage of this heterogeneity to construct a two-level classifier (\\'Profisi Ensemble\\') using predictions from 7 programs, along with 2 other data sources. Support vector machines using \\'full\\' and \\'reduced\\' data sets are combined in an either\\/or approach. We achieve a 14% increase in performance over the current state-of-the-art, as benchmarked by a third-party tool. Conclusions Supervised learning methods are a useful way to combine predictions from diverse sources.

  15. Combining linear interpolation with extrapolation methods in range-separated ensemble density-functional theory

    CERN Document Server

    Senjean, Bruno; Alam, Md Mehboob; Knecht, Stefan; Fromager, Emmanuel

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a recently proposed linear interpolation method (LIM) [Senjean et al., Phys. Rev. A 92, 012518 (2015)], which enables the calculation of weight-independent excitation energies in range-separated ensemble density-functional approximations, with the extrapolation scheme of Savin [J. Chem. Phys. 140, 18A509 (2014)] is presented in this work. It is shown that LIM excitation energies vary quadratically with the inverse of the range-separation parameter mu when the latter is large. As a result, the extrapolation scheme, which is usually applied to long-range interacting energies, can be adapted straightforwardly to LIM. This extrapolated LIM (ELIM) has been tested on a small test set consisting of He, Be, H2 and HeH+. Relatively accurate results have been obtained for the first singlet excitation energies with the typical mu=0.4 value. The improvement of LIM after extrapolation is remarkable, in particular for the doubly-excited 2^1Sigma+g state in the stretched H2 molecule. Three-state ensemble ...

  16. Time and ensemble averaging in time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Latka, Miroslaw; Jernajczyk, Wojciech; West, Bruce J

    2010-01-01

    In many applications expectation values are calculated by partitioning a single experimental time series into an ensemble of data segments of equal length. Such single trajectory ensemble (STE) is a counterpart to a multiple trajectory ensemble (MTE) used whenever independent measurements or realizations of a stochastic process are available. The equivalence of STE and MTE for stationary systems was postulated by Wang and Uhlenbeck in their classic paper on Brownian motion (Rev. Mod. Phys. 17, 323 (1945)) but surprisingly has not yet been proved. Using the stationary and ergodic paradigm of statistical physics -- the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) Langevin equation, we revisit Wang and Uhlenbeck's postulate. In particular, we find that the variance of the solution of this equation is different for these two ensembles. While the variance calculated using the MTE quantifies the spreading of independent trajectories originating from the same initial point, the variance for STE measures the spreading of two correlated r...

  17. Recombination Hotspot/Coldspot Identification Combining Three Different Pseudocomponents via an Ensemble Learning Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bingquan; Liu, Yumeng; Huang, Dong

    2016-01-01

    Recombination presents a nonuniform distribution across the genome. Genomic regions that present relatively higher frequencies of recombination are called hotspots while those with relatively lower frequencies of recombination are recombination coldspots. Therefore, the identification of hotspots/coldspots could provide useful information for the study of the mechanism of recombination. In this study, a new computational predictor called SVM-EL was proposed to identify hotspots/coldspots across the yeast genome. It combined Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and Ensemble Learning (EL) based on three features including basic kmer (Kmer), dinucleotide-based auto-cross covariance (DACC), and pseudo dinucleotide composition (PseDNC). These features are able to incorporate the nucleic acid composition and their order information into the predictor. The proposed SVM-EL achieves an accuracy of 82.89% on a widely used benchmark dataset, which outperforms some related methods. PMID:27648451

  18. Development of the Ensemble Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (ENAAPS) and its application of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) in support of aerosol forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Juli I.; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Hansen, James A.; Anderson, Jeffrey L.; Collins, Nancy; Hoar, Timothy J.; Hogan, Timothy; Lynch, Peng; McLay, Justin; Reynolds, Carolyn A.; Sessions, Walter R.; Westphal, Douglas L.; Zhang, Jianglong

    2016-03-01

    An ensemble-based forecast and data assimilation system has been developed for use in Navy aerosol forecasting. The system makes use of an ensemble of the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (ENAAPS) at 1 × 1°, combined with an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter from NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The base ENAAPS-DART system discussed in this work utilizes the Navy Operational Global Analysis Prediction System (NOGAPS) meteorological ensemble to drive offline NAAPS simulations coupled with the DART ensemble Kalman filter architecture to assimilate bias-corrected MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrievals. This work outlines the optimization of the 20-member ensemble system, including consideration of meteorology and source-perturbed ensemble members as well as covariance inflation. Additional tests with 80 meteorological and source members were also performed. An important finding of this work is that an adaptive covariance inflation method, which has not been previously tested for aerosol applications, was found to perform better than a temporally and spatially constant covariance inflation. Problems were identified with the constant inflation in regions with limited observational coverage. The second major finding of this work is that combined meteorology and aerosol source ensembles are superior to either in isolation and that both are necessary to produce a robust system with sufficient spread in the ensemble members as well as realistic correlation fields for spreading observational information. The inclusion of aerosol source ensembles improves correlation fields for large aerosol source regions, such as smoke and dust in Africa, by statistically separating freshly emitted from transported aerosol species. However, the source ensembles have limited efficacy during long-range transport. Conversely, the meteorological ensemble generates sufficient spread at the synoptic scale to enable observational impact through the ensemble data

  19. Gold price analysis based on ensemble empirical model decomposition and independent component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, Lu; He, Kaijian; Lai, Kin Keung

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the increasing level of volatility of the gold price has received the increasing level of attention from the academia and industry alike. Due to the complexity and significant fluctuations observed in the gold market, however, most of current approaches have failed to produce robust and consistent modeling and forecasting results. Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition (EEMD) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) are novel data analysis methods that can deal with nonlinear and non-stationary time series. This study introduces a new methodology which combines the two methods and applies it to gold price analysis. This includes three steps: firstly, the original gold price series is decomposed into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) by EEMD. Secondly, IMFs are further processed with unimportant ones re-grouped. Then a new set of data called Virtual Intrinsic Mode Functions (VIMFs) is reconstructed. Finally, ICA is used to decompose VIMFs into statistically Independent Components (ICs). The decomposition results reveal that the gold price series can be represented by the linear combination of ICs. Furthermore, the economic meanings of ICs are analyzed and discussed in detail, according to the change trend and ICs' transformation coefficients. The analyses not only explain the inner driving factors and their impacts but also conduct in-depth analysis on how these factors affect gold price. At the same time, regression analysis has been conducted to verify our analysis. Results from the empirical studies in the gold markets show that the EEMD-ICA serve as an effective technique for gold price analysis from a new perspective.

  20. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis 90-Day Seasonal Forecast of Precipitation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) precipitation forecast is a 90-day (seasonal) outlook of US surface precipitation anomalies. The ECCA uses...

  1. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis Forecast of Temperature

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) temperature forecast is a 90-day (seasonal) outlook of US surface temperature anomalies. The ECCA uses Canonical...

  2. Applications of Bayesian Procrustes shape analysis to ensemble radar reflectivity nowcast verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Neil I.; Micheas, Athanasios C.; Peng, Yuqiang

    2016-07-01

    This paper introduces the use of Bayesian full Procrustes shape analysis in object-oriented meteorological applications. In particular, the Procrustes methodology is used to generate mean forecast precipitation fields from a set of ensemble forecasts. This approach has advantages over other ensemble averaging techniques in that it can produce a forecast that retains the morphological features of the precipitation structures and present the range of forecast outcomes represented by the ensemble. The production of the ensemble mean avoids the problems of smoothing that result from simple pixel or cell averaging, while producing credible sets that retain information on ensemble spread. Also in this paper, the full Bayesian Procrustes scheme is used as an object verification tool for precipitation forecasts. This is an extension of a previously presented Procrustes shape analysis based verification approach into a full Bayesian format designed to handle the verification of precipitation forecasts that match objects from an ensemble of forecast fields to a single truth image. The methodology is tested on radar reflectivity nowcasts produced in the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) by varying parameters in the K-means cluster tracking scheme.

  3. A combinational feature selection and ensemble neural network method for classification of gene expression data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Tianzi

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Microarray experiments are becoming a powerful tool for clinical diagnosis, as they have the potential to discover gene expression patterns that are characteristic for a particular disease. To date, this problem has received most attention in the context of cancer research, especially in tumor classification. Various feature selection methods and classifier design strategies also have been generally used and compared. However, most published articles on tumor classification have applied a certain technique to a certain dataset, and recently several researchers compared these techniques based on several public datasets. But, it has been verified that differently selected features reflect different aspects of the dataset and some selected features can obtain better solutions on some certain problems. At the same time, faced with a large amount of microarray data with little knowledge, it is difficult to find the intrinsic characteristics using traditional methods. In this paper, we attempt to introduce a combinational feature selection method in conjunction with ensemble neural networks to generally improve the accuracy and robustness of sample classification. Results We validate our new method on several recent publicly available datasets both with predictive accuracy of testing samples and through cross validation. Compared with the best performance of other current methods, remarkably improved results can be obtained using our new strategy on a wide range of different datasets. Conclusions Thus, we conclude that our methods can obtain more information in microarray data to get more accurate classification and also can help to extract the latent marker genes of the diseases for better diagnosis and treatment.

  4. Analysis of ensemble quality of initialzed hindcasts in the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, Andre; Baehr, Johanna

    2016-04-01

    Global coupled climate models have been used to generate long-term projections of potential climate changes for the next century. On much shorter timescales, numerical weather prediction systems forecast the atmospheric state for the next days. The first approach depends largely on the boundary conditions, i.e., the applied external forcings, while the second depends largely on the initial conditions, i.e., the observed atmospheric state. For medium range climate predictions, on interannual to decadal time scales, both initial and boundary conditions are thought to influence the climate state, because the ocean is expected to have a much larger deterministic timescale than the atmosphere. The respective climate model needs to resemble the observed climate state and its tendency at the start of the prediction. This is realized by incorporating observations into both the oceanic and atmospheric components of the climate model leading to an initialized simulation. Here, we analyze the quality of an initialized ensemble generated with the global coupled Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We initialize for every year for the time period 1960 to 2014 an ensemble run out to 10 yaers length. This hindcast ensemble is conducted within the MiKlip framework for interannual to decadal climate prediction. In this context, the initialization of the oceanic component of the model ensemble is thought to impact the model state within the first years of prediction, however, it remains poorly known, for how much longer this impact can be detected. In our analysis we focus on the North Atlantic ocean variability and assess the evolution in time of both the probability density function (PDF) and the spread-error-ratio of the ensemble. Firstly, by comparing these characteristics of the initialized ensemble with an uninitialized ensemble we aim to (1) measure the difference in the initialized and uninitialized ensemble, (2) assess the evolution of this

  5. A MITgcm/DART ensemble analysis and prediction system with application to the Gulf of Mexico

    KAUST Repository

    Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2013-09-01

    This paper describes the development of an advanced ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based ocean data assimilation system for prediction of the evolution of the loop current in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The system integrates the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) assimilation package with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ocean general circulation model (MITgcm). The MITgcm/DART system supports the assimilation of a wide range of ocean observations and uses an ensemble approach to solve the nonlinear assimilation problems. The GoM prediction system was implemented with an eddy-resolving 1/10th degree configuration of the MITgcm. Assimilation experiments were performed over a 6-month period between May and October during a strong loop current event in 1999. The model was sequentially constrained with weekly satellite sea surface temperature and altimetry data. Experiments results suggest that the ensemble-based assimilation system shows a high predictive skill in the GoM, with estimated ensemble spread mainly concentrated around the front of the loop current. Further analysis of the system estimates demonstrates that the ensemble assimilation accurately reproduces the observed features without imposing any negative impact on the dynamical balance of the system. Results from sensitivity experiments with respect to the ensemble filter parameters are also presented and discussed. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

  6. Analysis of the interface variability in NMR structure ensembles of protein-protein complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvanese, Luisa; D'Auria, Gabriella; Vangone, Anna; Falcigno, Lucia; Oliva, Romina

    2016-06-01

    NMR structures consist in ensembles of conformers, all satisfying the experimental restraints, which exhibit a certain degree of structural variability. We analyzed here the interface in NMR ensembles of protein-protein heterodimeric complexes and found it to span a wide range of different conservations. The different exhibited conservations do not simply correlate with the size of the systems/interfaces, and are most probably the result of an interplay between different factors, including the quality of experimental data and the intrinsic complex flexibility. In any case, this information is not to be missed when NMR structures of protein-protein complexes are analyzed; especially considering that, as we also show here, the first NMR conformer is usually not the one which best reflects the overall interface. To quantify the interface conservation and to analyze it, we used an approach originally conceived for the analysis and ranking of ensembles of docking models, which has now been extended to directly deal with NMR ensembles. We propose this approach, based on the conservation of the inter-residue contacts at the interface, both for the analysis of the interface in whole ensembles of NMR complexes and for the possible selection of a single conformer as the best representative of the overall interface. In order to make the analyses automatic and fast, we made the protocol available as a web tool at: https://www.molnac.unisa.it/BioTools/consrank/consrank-nmr.html. PMID:26968364

  7. Statistical mechanical analysis of a hierarchical random code ensemble in signal processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Obuchi, Tomoyuki [Department of Earth and Space Science, Faculty of Science, Osaka University, Toyonaka 560-0043 (Japan); Takahashi, Kazutaka [Department of Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo 152-8551 (Japan); Takeda, Koujin, E-mail: takeda@sp.dis.titech.ac.jp [Department of Computational Intelligence and Systems Science, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama 226-8502 (Japan)

    2011-02-25

    We study a random code ensemble with a hierarchical structure, which is closely related to the generalized random energy model with discrete energy values. Based on this correspondence, we analyze the hierarchical random code ensemble by using the replica method in two situations: lossy data compression and channel coding. For both the situations, the exponents of large deviation analysis characterizing the performance of the ensemble, the distortion rate of lossy data compression and the error exponent of channel coding in Gallager's formalism, are accessible by a generating function of the generalized random energy model. We discuss that the transitions of those exponents observed in the preceding work can be interpreted as phase transitions with respect to the replica number. We also show that the replica symmetry breaking plays an essential role in these transitions.

  8. Uncertainty analysis in building ensemble of RCMs, on water cycle in South East of Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Galiano, Sandra; Olmos Giménez, Patricia; Giraldo Osorio, Juan Diego

    2014-05-01

    the influence of seasonal and annual variation of the corresponding variables, and is built at each site. A sensitivity analysis of ensemble building method of meteorological variables, is addressed for justifying the more robust and parsimonious methodology. Finally, the impacts on runoff and its trend from historical data and climate projections from the selected method of RCMs ensemble, were assessed. Significant decreases from the plausible scenarios of runoff for 2050 were identified, with the consequent negative impacts in the regional economy.

  9. Optical ensemble analysis of intraocular lens performance through a simulated clinical trial with ZEMAX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Huawei

    2009-01-01

    A ZEMAX model was constructed to simulate a clinical trial of intraocular lenses (IOLs) based on a clinically oriented Monte Carlo ensemble analysis using postoperative ocular parameters. The purpose of this model is to test the feasibility of streamlining and optimizing both the design process and the clinical testing of IOLs. This optical ensemble analysis (OEA) is also validated. Simulated pseudophakic eyes were generated by using the tolerancing and programming features of ZEMAX optical design software. OEA methodology was verified by demonstrating that the results of clinical performance simulations were consistent with previously published clinical performance data using the same types of IOLs. From these results we conclude that the OEA method can objectively simulate the potential clinical trial performance of IOLs.

  10. Pathway analysis in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: An ensemble approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, Michael A; McWeeney, Shannon K; Faraone, Stephen V; Hinney, Anke; Hebebrand, Johannes; Nigg, Joel T; Wilmot, Beth

    2016-09-01

    Despite a wealth of evidence for the role of genetics in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), specific and definitive genetic mechanisms have not been identified. Pathway analyses, a subset of gene-set analyses, extend the knowledge gained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) by providing functional context for genetic associations. However, there are numerous methods for association testing of gene sets and no real consensus regarding the best approach. The present study applied six pathway analysis methods to identify pathways associated with ADHD in two GWAS datasets from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Methods that utilize genotypes to model pathway-level effects identified more replicable pathway associations than methods using summary statistics. In addition, pathways implicated by more than one method were significantly more likely to replicate. A number of brain-relevant pathways, such as RhoA signaling, glycosaminoglycan biosynthesis, fibroblast growth factor receptor activity, and pathways containing potassium channel genes, were nominally significant by multiple methods in both datasets. These results support previous hypotheses about the role of regulation of neurotransmitter release, neurite outgrowth and axon guidance in contributing to the ADHD phenotype and suggest the value of cross-method convergence in evaluating pathway analysis results. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27004716

  11. Planetary gearbox condition monitoring of ship-based satellite communication antennas using ensemble multiwavelet analysis method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jinglong; Zhang, Chunlin; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Zi, Yanyang; He, Shuilong; Yang, Zhe

    2015-03-01

    Satellite communication antennas are key devices of a measurement ship to support voice, data, fax and video integration services. Condition monitoring of mechanical equipment from the vibration measurement data is significant for guaranteeing safe operation and avoiding the unscheduled breakdown. So, condition monitoring system for ship-based satellite communication antennas is designed and developed. Planetary gearboxes play an important role in the transmission train of satellite communication antenna. However, condition monitoring of planetary gearbox still faces challenges due to complexity and weak condition feature. This paper provides a possibility for planetary gearbox condition monitoring by proposing ensemble a multiwavelet analysis method. Benefit from the property on multi-resolution analysis and the multiple wavelet basis functions, multiwavelet has the advantage over characterizing the non-stationary signal. In order to realize the accurate detection of the condition feature and multi-resolution analysis in the whole frequency band, adaptive multiwavelet basis function is constructed via increasing multiplicity and then vibration signal is processed by the ensemble multiwavelet transform. Finally, normalized ensemble multiwavelet transform information entropy is computed to describe the condition of planetary gearbox. The effectiveness of proposed method is first validated through condition monitoring of experimental planetary gearbox. Then this method is used for planetary gearbox condition monitoring of ship-based satellite communication antennas and the results support its feasibility.

  12. Machinery fault diagnosis using joint global and local/nonlocal discriminant analysis with selective ensemble learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jianbo

    2016-11-01

    The vibration signals of faulty machine are generally non-stationary and nonlinear under those complicated working conditions. Thus, it is a big challenge to extract and select the effective features from vibration signals for machinery fault diagnosis. This paper proposes a new manifold learning algorithm, joint global and local/nonlocal discriminant analysis (GLNDA), which aims to extract effective intrinsic geometrical information from the given vibration data. Comparisons with other regular methods, principal component analysis (PCA), local preserving projection (LPP), linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and local LDA (LLDA), illustrate the superiority of GLNDA in machinery fault diagnosis. Based on the extracted information by GLNDA, a GLNDA-based Fisher discriminant rule (FDR) is put forward and applied to machinery fault diagnosis without additional recognizer construction procedure. By importing Bagging into GLNDA score-based feature selection and FDR, a novel manifold ensemble method (selective GLNDA ensemble, SE-GLNDA) is investigated for machinery fault diagnosis. The motivation for developing ensemble of manifold learning components is that it can achieve higher accuracy and applicability than single component in machinery fault diagnosis. The effectiveness of the SE-GLNDA-based fault diagnosis method has been verified by experimental results from bearing full life testers.

  13. An Ensemble 4D Seismic History Matching Framework with Sparse Representation Based on Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Xiaodong; Jakobsen, Morten; Nævdal, Geir

    2016-01-01

    In this work we propose an ensemble 4D seismic history matching framework for reservoir characterization. Compared to similar existing frameworks in reservoir engineering community, the proposed one consists of some relatively new ingredients, in terms of the type of seismic data in choice, wavelet multiresolution analysis for the chosen seismic data and related data noise estimation, and the use of recently developed iterative ensemble history matching algorithms. Typical seismic data used for history matching, such as acoustic impedance, are inverted quantities, whereas extra uncertainties may arise during the inversion processes. In the proposed framework we avoid such intermediate inversion processes. In addition, we also adopt wavelet-based sparse representation to reduce data size. Concretely, we use intercept and gradient attributes derived from amplitude versus angle (AVA) data, apply multilevel discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) to attribute data, and estimate noise level of resulting wavelet coeffici...

  14. Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Riccio

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides.

    We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b.

    This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.

  15. Seeking for the rational basis of the median model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Riccio

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides.

    We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b.

    This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.

  16. Popular Ensemble Methods: An Empirical Study

    CERN Document Server

    Maclin, R; 10.1613/jair.614

    2011-01-01

    An ensemble consists of a set of individually trained classifiers (such as neural networks or decision trees) whose predictions are combined when classifying novel instances. Previous research has shown that an ensemble is often more accurate than any of the single classifiers in the ensemble. Bagging (Breiman, 1996c) and Boosting (Freund and Shapire, 1996; Shapire, 1990) are two relatively new but popular methods for producing ensembles. In this paper we evaluate these methods on 23 data sets using both neural networks and decision trees as our classification algorithm. Our results clearly indicate a number of conclusions. First, while Bagging is almost always more accurate than a single classifier, it is sometimes much less accurate than Boosting. On the other hand, Boosting can create ensembles that are less accurate than a single classifier -- especially when using neural networks. Analysis indicates that the performance of the Boosting methods is dependent on the characteristics of the data set being exa...

  17. Eye blink artifact rejection in single-channel electroencephalographic signals by complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition and independent component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanoga, Suguru; Mitsukura, Yasue

    2015-01-01

    To study an eye blink artifact rejection scheme from single-channel electroencephalographic (EEG) signals has been now a major challenge in the field of EEG signal processing. High removal performance is still needed to more strictly investigate pattern of EEG features. This paper proposes a new eye blink artifact rejection scheme from single-channel EEG signals by combining complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and independent component analysis (ICA). We compare the separation performance of our proposed scheme with existing schemes (wavelet-ICA, EMD-ICA, and EEMD-ICA) though real-life data by using signal-to-noise ratio. As a result, CEEMD-ICA showed high performance (11.86 dB) than all other schemes (10.78, 10.59, and 11.30 dB) in the ability of eye blink artifact removal.

  18. Hybrid Data Assimilation without Ensemble Filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todling, Ricardo; Akkraoui, Amal El

    2014-01-01

    The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is preparing to upgrade its three-dimensional variational system to a hybrid approach in which the ensemble is generated using a square-root ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the variational problem is solved using the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation system. As in most EnKF applications, we found it necessary to employ a combination of multiplicative and additive inflations, to compensate for sampling and modeling errors, respectively and, to maintain the small-member ensemble solution close to the variational solution; we also found it necessary to re-center the members of the ensemble about the variational analysis. During tuning of the filter we have found re-centering and additive inflation to play a considerably larger role than expected, particularly in a dual-resolution context when the variational analysis is ran at larger resolution than the ensemble. This led us to consider a hybrid strategy in which the members of the ensemble are generated by simply converting the variational analysis to the resolution of the ensemble and applying additive inflation, thus bypassing the EnKF. Comparisons of this, so-called, filter-free hybrid procedure with an EnKF-based hybrid procedure and a control non-hybrid, traditional, scheme show both hybrid strategies to provide equally significant improvement over the control; more interestingly, the filter-free procedure was found to give qualitatively similar results to the EnKF-based procedure.

  19. Experiences in multiyear combined state-parameter estimation with an ecosystem model of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Ehouarn; Samuelsen, Annette; Bertino, Laurent; Mouysset, Sandrine

    2015-12-01

    A sequence of one-year combined state-parameter estimation experiments has been conducted in a North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean configuration of the coupled physical-biogeochemical model HYCOM-NORWECOM over the period 2007-2010. The aim is to evaluate the ability of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to calibrate ecosystem model parameters in a pre-operational setting, namely the production of the MyOcean pilot reanalysis of the Arctic biology. For that purpose, four biological parameters (two phyto- and two zooplankton mortality rates) are estimated by assimilating weekly data such as, satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature, along-track Sea Level Anomalies, ice concentrations and chlorophyll-a concentrations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The set of optimized parameters locally exhibits seasonal variations suggesting that time-dependent parameters should be used in ocean ecosystem models. A clustering analysis of the optimized parameters is performed in order to identify consistent ecosystem regions. In the north part of the domain, where the ecosystem model is the most reliable, most of them can be associated with Longhurst provinces and new provinces emerge in the Arctic Ocean. However, the clusters do not coincide anymore with the Longhurst provinces in the Tropics due to large model errors. Regarding the ecosystem state variables, the assimilation of satellite-derived chlorophyll concentration leads to significant reduction of the RMS errors in the observed variables during the first year, i.e. 2008, compared to a free run simulation. However, local filter divergences of the parameter component occur in 2009 and result in an increase in the RMS error at the time of the spring bloom.

  20. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve...

  1. A glacial systems model configured for large ensemble analysis of Antarctic deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Briggs

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the Memorial University of Newfoundland/Penn State University (MUN/PSU glacial systems model (GSM that has been developed specifically for large-ensemble data-constrained analysis of past Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Our approach emphasizes the introduction of a large set of model parameters to explicitly account for the uncertainties inherent in the modelling of such a complex system. At the core of the GSM is a 3-D thermo-mechanically coupled ice sheet model that solves both the shallow ice and shallow shelf approximations. This enables the different stress regimes of ice sheet, ice shelves, and ice streams to be represented. The grounding line is modelled through an analytical sub-grid flux parametrization. To this dynamical core the following have been added: a heavily parametrized basal drag component; a visco-elastic isostatic adjustment solver; a diverse set of climate forcings (to remove any reliance on any single method; tidewater and ice shelf calving functionality; and a new physically-motivated empirically-derived sub-shelf melt (SSM component. To assess the accuracy of the latter, we compare predicted SSM values against a compilation of published observations. Within parametric and observational uncertainties, computed SSM for the present day ice sheet is in accord with observations for all but the Filchner ice shelf. The GSM has 31 ensemble parameters that are varied to account (in part for the uncertainty in the ice-physics, the climate forcing, and the ice-ocean interaction. We document the parameters and parametric sensitivity of the model to motivate the choice of ensemble parameters in a quest to approximately bound reality (within the limits of 31 parameters.

  2. Analysis and Comparisons of Four Kinds of Ensemble Pulsar Time Algorithm%四种综合脉冲星时算法比较

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    仲崇霞; 杨廷高

    2009-01-01

    Wiener filtration algorithm are combined and a new ensemble pulsar time algorithm called the Wiener filtration analysis in wavelet domain is presented in this paper, which can remove the influence of noise more effectively. The pulsar timing residuals are decomposed to different components by wavelet. The influences of the atomic clock of different components are removed by Wiener filtration and then the ensemble pulsar time can be obtained by inverting the wavelet transform acting on these remains. The computed result indicates that the latter three algorithms are far better than the first one and the Wiener filtration analysis in wavelet domain could be the best one among all algorithms.%由单颗脉冲星定义的脉冲星时受多种噪声源的影响,其短期和长期稳定度都不够好.为了削弱这些噪声源对单脉冲星时的影响,可以采取合适的算法对多个单脉冲星时进行综合得到综合脉冲星时,从而提高综合脉冲星时的长期稳定度.文中介绍4种综合脉冲星时算法:经典加权算法、小波分析算法、维纳滤波算法和小波域中的维纳滤波算法,将这4种算法分别应用于Arecibo天文台对两颗毫秒脉冲星PSR B1855+09和PSRB1937+21观测得到的计时残差并作出比较.

  3. X-Ray Cross-Correlation Analysis of Disordered Ensembles of Particles: Potentials and Limitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. P. Kurta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Angular X-ray cross-correlation analysis (XCCA is an approach to study the structure of disordered systems using the results of X-ray scattering experiments. In this paper we summarize recent theoretical developments related to the Fourier analysis of the cross-correlation functions. Results of our simulations demonstrate the application of XCCA to two- and three-dimensional (2D and 3D disordered ensembles of particles. We show that the structure of a single particle can be recovered using X-ray data collected from a 2D disordered system of identical particles. We also demonstrate that valuable structural information about the local structure of 3D systems, inaccessible from a standard small-angle X-ray scattering experiment, can be resolved using XCCA.

  4. Data-worth analysis through probabilistic collocation-based Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Cheng; Xue, Liang; Zhang, Dongxiao; Guadagnini, Alberto

    2016-09-01

    We propose a new and computationally efficient data-worth analysis and quantification framework keyed to the characterization of target state variables in groundwater systems. We focus on dynamically evolving plumes of dissolved chemicals migrating in randomly heterogeneous aquifers. An accurate prediction of the detailed features of solute plumes requires collecting a substantial amount of data. Otherwise, constraints dictated by the availability of financial resources and ease of access to the aquifer system suggest the importance of assessing the expected value of data before these are actually collected. Data-worth analysis is targeted to the quantification of the impact of new potential measurements on the expected reduction of predictive uncertainty based on a given process model. Integration of the Ensemble Kalman Filter method within a data-worth analysis framework enables us to assess data worth sequentially, which is a key desirable feature for monitoring scheme design in a contaminant transport scenario. However, it is remarkably challenging because of the (typically) high computational cost involved, considering that repeated solutions of the inverse problem are required. As a computationally efficient scheme, we embed in the data-worth analysis framework a modified version of the Probabilistic Collocation Method-based Ensemble Kalman Filter proposed by Zeng et al. (2011) so that we take advantage of the ability to assimilate data sequentially in time through a surrogate model constructed via the polynomial chaos expansion. We illustrate our approach on a set of synthetic scenarios involving solute migrating in a two-dimensional random permeability field. Our results demonstrate the computational efficiency of our approach and its ability to quantify the impact of the design of the monitoring network on the reduction of uncertainty associated with the characterization of a migrating contaminant plume.

  5. Statistical analysis of time-resolved emission from ensembles of semiconductor quantum dots: Interpretation of exponential decay models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Driel, A.F.; Nikolaev, I.S.; Vergeer, P.;

    2007-01-01

    We present a statistical analysis of time-resolved spontaneous emission decay curves from ensembles of emitters, such as semiconductor quantum dots, with the aim of interpreting ubiquitous non-single-exponential decay. Contrary to what is widely assumed, the density of excited emitters and the in......We present a statistical analysis of time-resolved spontaneous emission decay curves from ensembles of emitters, such as semiconductor quantum dots, with the aim of interpreting ubiquitous non-single-exponential decay. Contrary to what is widely assumed, the density of excited emitters...

  6. Removal of Muscle Artifacts from Single-Channel EEG Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Multiset Canonical Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xun Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Electroencephalogram (EEG recordings are often contaminated with muscle artifacts. This disturbing muscular activity strongly affects the visual analysis of EEG and impairs the results of EEG signal processing such as brain connectivity analysis. If multichannel EEG recordings are available, then there exist a considerable range of methods which can remove or to some extent suppress the distorting effect of such artifacts. Yet to our knowledge, there is no existing means to remove muscle artifacts from single-channel EEG recordings. Moreover, considering the recently increasing need for biomedical signal processing in ambulatory situations, it is crucially important to develop single-channel techniques. In this work, we propose a simple, yet effective method to achieve the muscle artifact removal from single-channel EEG, by combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD with multiset canonical correlation analysis (MCCA. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method through numerical simulations and application to real EEG recordings contaminated with muscle artifacts. The proposed method can successfully remove muscle artifacts without altering the recorded underlying EEG activity. It is a promising tool for real-world biomedical signal processing applications.

  7. NYYD Ensemble

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx

  8. ENSO Forecasts in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Composite Analysis and Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L. C.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, we examine precipitation and temperature forecasts during El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in six models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), including the CFSv2, CanCM3, CanCM4, FLOR, GEOS5, and CCSM4 models, by comparing the model-based ENSO composites to the observed. The composite analysis is conducted using the 1982-2010 hindcasts for each of the six models with selected ENSO episodes based on the seasonal Ocean Nino Index (ONI) just prior to the date the forecasts were initiated. Two sets of composites are constructed over the North American continent: one based on precipitation and temperature anomalies, the other based on their probability of occurrence in a tercile-based system. The composites apply to monthly mean conditions in November, December, January, February, and March, respectively, as well as to the five-month aggregates representing the winter conditions. For the anomaly composites, we use the anomaly correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error against the observed composites for evaluation. For the probability composites, unlike conventional probabilistic forecast verification assuming binary outcomes to the observations, both model and observed composites are expressed in probability terms. Performance metrics for such validation are limited. Therefore, we develop a probability anomaly correlation measure and a probability score for assessment, so the results are comparable to the anomaly composite evaluation. We found that all NMME models predict ENSO precipitation patterns well during wintertime; however, some models have large discrepancies between the model temperature composites and the observed. The skill is higher for the multi-model ensemble, as well as the five-month aggregates. Comparing to the anomaly composites, the probability composites have superior skill in predicting ENSO temperature patterns and are less sensitive to the sample used to construct the composites, suggesting that

  9. Ensemble habitat mapping of invasive plant species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stohlgren, T.J.; Ma, P.; Kumar, S.; Rocca, M.; Morisette, J.T.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Benson, N.

    2010-01-01

    Ensemble species distribution models combine the strengths of several species environmental matching models, while minimizing the weakness of any one model. Ensemble models may be particularly useful in risk analysis of recently arrived, harmful invasive species because species may not yet have spread to all suitable habitats, leaving species-environment relationships difficult to determine. We tested five individual models (logistic regression, boosted regression trees, random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and maximum entropy model or Maxent) and ensemble modeling for selected nonnative plant species in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, Wyoming; Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California, and areas of interior Alaska. The models are based on field data provided by the park staffs, combined with topographic, climatic, and vegetation predictors derived from satellite data. For the four invasive plant species tested, ensemble models were the only models that ranked in the top three models for both field validation and test data. Ensemble models may be more robust than individual species-environment matching models for risk analysis. ?? 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. An Efficient Data-worth Analysis Framework via Probabilistic Collocation Method Based Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, L.; Dai, C.; Zhang, D.; Guadagnini, A.

    2015-12-01

    It is critical to predict contaminant plume in an aquifer under uncertainty, which can help assess environmental risk and design rational management strategies. An accurate prediction of contaminant plume requires the collection of data to help characterize the system. Due to the limitation of financial resources, ones should estimate the expectative value of data collected from each optional monitoring scheme before carried out. Data-worth analysis is believed to be an effective approach to identify the value of the data in some problems, which quantifies the uncertainty reduction assuming that the plausible data has been collected. However, it is difficult to apply the data-worth analysis to a dynamic simulation of contaminant transportation model owning to its requirement of large number of inverse-modeling. In this study, a novel efficient data-worth analysis framework is proposed by developing the Probabilistic Collocation Method based Ensemble Kalman Filter (PCKF). The PCKF constructs polynomial chaos expansion surrogate model to replace the original complex numerical model. Consequently, the inverse modeling can perform on the proxy rather than the original model. An illustrative example, considering the dynamic change of the contaminant concentration, is employed to demonstrate the proposed approach. The Results reveal that schemes with different sampling frequencies, monitoring networks location, prior data content will have significant impact on the uncertainty reduction of the estimation of contaminant plume. Our proposition is validated to provide the reasonable value of data from various schemes.

  11. Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

    2015-12-01

    We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

  12. Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

    2015-12-28

    We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

  13. MVL spatiotemporal analysis for model intercomparison in EPS: application to the DEMETER multi-model ensemble

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez, J.; Cofino, A.S. [University of Cantabria, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computing Sciences, Santander (Spain); Primo, C. [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom); Gutierrez, J.M.; Rodriguez, M.A. [Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria, CSIC-UC, Santander (Spain)

    2009-08-15

    In a recent paper, Gutierrez et al. (Nonlinear Process Geophys 15(1):109-114, 2008) introduced a new characterization of spatiotemporal error growth - the so called mean-variance logarithmic (MVL) diagram - and applied it to study ensemble prediction systems (EPS); in particular, they analyzed single-model ensembles obtained by perturbing the initial conditions. In the present work, the MVL diagram is applied to multi-model ensembles analyzing also the effect of model formulation differences. To this aim, the MVL diagram is systematically applied to the multi-model ensemble produced in the EU-funded DEMETER project. It is shown that the shared building blocks (atmospheric and ocean components) impose similar dynamics among different models and, thus, contribute to poorly sampling the model formulation uncertainty. This dynamical similarity should be taken into account, at least as a pre-screening process, before applying any objective weighting method. (orig.)

  14. Combining stochastic weather generation and ensemble streamflow predictions for short to medium term flow forecasting over Quebec, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brissette, F.; Chen, J.; Li, Z.; Turcotte, R.

    2012-04-01

    Probabilistic streamflow forecasting has been an important research avenue over the past decade and such approaches are now more commonly being incorporated into operational forecasting systems within government agencies and industries dealing with water management. This work details a prototype for a streamflow forecast operational system in southern Quebec, Canada. The system uses ensemble meteorological forecasts for short term (less than 10 days) forecasting, switching to a stochastic weather generator for the period exceeding 10 days all the way to a three-month lead time. Precipitation and temperature series are then fed to one (or many) hydrological models to produce streamflow forecasts. The ensemble weather forecasts are corrected for biases and under dispersion using logistic regression. Results show that the ensemble streamflow forecasts resulting from the ensemble meteorological forecast have more skill than the deterministic forecasts. Preliminary results indicate that ensemble meteorological forecasts displayed skill for a period up to 5 days for precipitation and up to about 10 days for temperature. Past ten days, probabilistic streamflow forecasts are based on multiple synthetic times series obtained from a stochastic weather generator. The use of stochastic time series result in better forecasts then resampling the historical record and allows for better evaluation of extreme events. The weather generator can easily be linked to large scale seasonal global predictors, is such links exist. Over the tested basins (continental climate), the system forecast has skills up to a lead time of 4 weeks in the best case. For a lead-time between one and three months, using the forecast prototype yielded no better results than using the historical streamflow record. This work also investigated the uncertainty linked to the choice of one hydrology model and the ability of a multi-model approach to improve streamflow forecasting. Preliminary results showed that

  15. Removal of artifacts in knee joint vibroarthrographic signals using ensemble empirical mode decomposition and detrended fluctuation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yunfeng; Yang, Shanshan; Zheng, Fang; Cai, Suxian; Lu, Meng; Wu, Meihong

    2014-03-01

    High-resolution knee joint vibroarthrographic (VAG) signals can help physicians accurately evaluate the pathological condition of a degenerative knee joint, in order to prevent unnecessary exploratory surgery. Artifact cancellation is vital to preserve the quality of VAG signals prior to further computer-aided analysis. This paper describes a novel method that effectively utilizes ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) algorithms for the removal of baseline wander and white noise in VAG signal processing. The EEMD method first successively decomposes the raw VAG signal into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with fast and low oscillations, until the monotonic baseline wander remains in the last residue. Then, the DFA algorithm is applied to compute the fractal scaling index parameter for each IMF, in order to identify the anti-correlation and the long-range correlation components. Next, the DFA algorithm can be used to identify the anti-correlated and the long-range correlated IMFs, which assists in reconstructing the artifact-reduced VAG signals. Our experimental results showed that the combination of EEMD and DFA algorithms was able to provide averaged signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) values of 20.52 dB (standard deviation: 1.14 dB) and 20.87 dB (standard deviation: 1.89 dB) for 45 normal signals in healthy subjects and 20 pathological signals in symptomatic patients, respectively. The combination of EEMD and DFA algorithms can ameliorate the quality of VAG signals with great SNR improvements over the raw signal, and the results were also superior to those achieved by wavelet matching pursuit decomposition and time-delay neural filter.

  16. MAVENs: Motion analysis and visualization of elastic networks and structural ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zimmermann Michael T

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to generate, visualize, and analyze motions of biomolecules has made a significant impact upon modern biology. Molecular Dynamics has gained substantial use, but remains computationally demanding and difficult to setup for many biologists. Elastic network models (ENMs are an alternative and have been shown to generate the dominant equilibrium motions of biomolecules quickly and efficiently. These dominant motions have been shown to be functionally relevant and also to indicate the likely direction of conformational changes. Most structures have a small number of dominant motions. Comparing computed motions to the structure's conformational ensemble derived from a collection of static structures or frames from an MD trajectory is an important way to understand functional motions as well as evaluate the models. Modes of motion computed from ENMs can be visualized to gain functional and mechanistic understanding and to compute useful quantities such as average positional fluctuations, internal distance changes, collectiveness of motions, and directional correlations within the structure. Results Our new software, MAVEN, aims to bring ENMs and their analysis to a broader audience by integrating methods for their generation and analysis into a user friendly environment that automates many of the steps. Models can be constructed from raw PDB files or density maps, using all available atomic coordinates or by employing various coarse-graining procedures. Visualization can be performed either with our software or exported to molecular viewers. Mixed resolution models allow one to study atomic effects on the system while retaining much of the computational speed of the coarse-grained ENMs. Analysis options are available to further aid the user in understanding the computed motions and their importance for its function. Conclusion MAVEN has been developed to simplify ENM generation, allow for diverse models to be used, and

  17. Extracting the Neural Representation of Tone Onsets for Separate Voices of Ensemble Music Using Multivariate EEG Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sturm, Irene; Treder, Matthias S.; Miklody, Daniel;

    2015-01-01

    -specific filters to 61-channel EEG recorded during the presentations of the ensemble version and assess by means of correlation measures how strongly the voice of each solo instrument is reflected in the EEG. Our results show that the reflection of the melody instrument keyboard in the EEG exceeds...... standard pattern. Obviously, these paradigms put constraints on the compositional complexity of the musical stimulus. Here, we apply a regression-based method of multivariate EEG analysis in order to reveal the neural encoding of separate voices of naturalistic ensemble music that is based on cortical...... that optimizes the 106 correlation between EEG and a target function which represents the sequence of note onsets in the audio signal of the respective solo voice. This filter extracts an EEG projection that reflects the brain’s reaction to note onsets with enhanced sensitivity. We apply these instrument...

  18. An Introduction to Ensemble Methods for Data Analysis (Revised July, 2004)

    OpenAIRE

    Berk, Richard

    2004-01-01

    This paper provides an introduction to ensemble statistical procedures as a special case of algorithmic methods. The discussion beings with classification and regression trees (CART) as a didactic device to introduce many of the key issues. Following the material on CART is a consideration of cross-validation, bagging, random forests and boosting. Major points are illustrated with analyses of real data.

  19. Ensemble learning incorporating uncertain registration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Ivor J A; Woolrich, Mark W; Andersson, Jesper L R; Groves, Adrian R; Schnabel, Julia A

    2013-04-01

    This paper proposes a novel approach for improving the accuracy of statistical prediction methods in spatially normalized analysis. This is achieved by incorporating registration uncertainty into an ensemble learning scheme. A probabilistic registration method is used to estimate a distribution of probable mappings between subject and atlas space. This allows the estimation of the distribution of spatially normalized feature data, e.g., grey matter probability maps. From this distribution, samples are drawn for use as training examples. This allows the creation of multiple predictors, which are subsequently combined using an ensemble learning approach. Furthermore, extra testing samples can be generated to measure the uncertainty of prediction. This is applied to separating subjects with Alzheimer's disease from normal controls using a linear support vector machine on a region of interest in magnetic resonance images of the brain. We show that our proposed method leads to an improvement in discrimination using voxel-based morphometry and deformation tensor-based morphometry over bootstrap aggregating, a common ensemble learning framework. The proposed approach also generates more reasonable soft-classification predictions than bootstrap aggregating. We expect that this approach could be applied to other statistical prediction tasks where registration is important. PMID:23288332

  20. A Classifier Ensemble of Binary Classifier Ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajad Parvin

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an innovative combinational algorithm to improve the performance in multiclass classification domains. Because the more accurate classifier the better performance of classification, the researchers in computer communities have been tended to improve the accuracies of classifiers. Although a better performance for classifier is defined the more accurate classifier, but turning to the best classifier is not always the best option to obtain the best quality in classification. It means to reach the best classification there is another alternative to use many inaccurate or weak classifiers each of them is specialized for a sub-space in the problem space and using their consensus vote as the final classifier. So this paper proposes a heuristic classifier ensemble to improve the performance of classification learning. It is specially deal with multiclass problems which their aim is to learn the boundaries of each class from many other classes. Based on the concept of multiclass problems classifiers are divided into two different categories: pairwise classifiers and multiclass classifiers. The aim of a pairwise classifier is to separate one class from another one. Because of pairwise classifiers just train for discrimination between two classes, decision boundaries of them are simpler and more effective than those of multiclass classifiers.The main idea behind the proposed method is to focus classifier in the erroneous spaces of problem and use of pairwise classification concept instead of multiclass classification concept. Indeed although usage of pairwise classification concept instead of multiclass classification concept is not new, we propose a new pairwise classifier ensemble with a very lower order. In this paper, first the most confused classes are determined and then some ensembles of classifiers are created. The classifiers of each of these ensembles jointly work using majority weighting votes. The results of these ensembles

  1. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses totemperature and CO2concentration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makowski, D; Asseng, S; Ewert, F.;

    2015-01-01

    Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data...... in the simulation protocols. Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulate ensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models is that they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2 concentration...... levels, and can thus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulated by 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical...

  2. Measuring ensemble interdependence in a string quartet through analysis of multidimensional performance data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papiotis, Panos; Marchini, Marco; Perez-Carrillo, Alfonso; Maestre, Esteban

    2014-01-01

    In a musical ensemble such as a string quartet, the musicians interact and influence each other's actions in several aspects of the performance simultaneously in order to achieve a common aesthetic goal. In this article, we present and evaluate a computational approach for measuring the degree to which these interactions exist in a given performance. We recorded a number of string quartet exercises under two experimental conditions (solo and ensemble), acquiring both audio and bowing motion data. Numerical features in the form of time series were extracted from the data as performance descriptors representative of four distinct dimensions of the performance: Intonation, Dynamics, Timbre, and Tempo. Four different interdependence estimation methods (two linear and two nonlinear) were applied to the extracted features in order to assess the overall level of interdependence between the four musicians. The obtained results suggest that it is possible to correctly discriminate between the two experimental conditions by quantifying interdependence between the musicians in each of the studied performance dimensions; the nonlinear methods appear to perform best for most of the numerical features tested. Moreover, by using the solo recordings as a reference to which the ensemble recordings are contrasted, it is feasible to compare the amount of interdependence that is established between the musicians in a given performance dimension across all exercises, and relate the results to the underlying goal of the exercise. We discuss our findings in the context of ensemble performance research, the current limitations of our approach, and the ways in which it can be expanded and consolidated. PMID:25228894

  3. Measuring ensemble interdependence in a string quartet through analysis of multidimensional performance data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panos ePapiotis

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In a musical ensemble such as a string quartet, the musicians interact and influence each other’s actions in several aspects of the performance simultaneously in order to achieve a common aesthetic goal. In this article, we present and evaluate a computational approach for measuring the degree to which these interactions exist in a given performance. We recorded a number of string quartet exercises under two experimental conditions (solo and ensemble, acquiring both audio and bowing motion data. Numerical features in the form of time series were extracted from the data as performance descriptors representative of four distinct dimensions of the performance: Intonation, Dynamics, Timbre and Tempo. Four different interdependence estimation methods (two linear and two nonlinear were applied to the extracted features in order to assess the overall level of interdependence between the four musicians. The obtained results suggest that it is possible to correctly discriminate between the two experimental conditions by quantifying interdependence between the musicians in each of the studied performance dimensions; the nonlinear methods appear to perform best for most of the numerical features tested. Moreover, by using the solo recordings as a reference to which the ensemble recordings are contrasted, it is feasible to compare the amount of interdependence that is established between the musicians in a given performance dimension across all exercises, and relate the results to the underlying goal of the exercise. We discuss our findings in the context of ensemble performance research, the current limitations of our approach, and the ways in which it can be expanded and consolidated.

  4. An Action Analysis for Combining Partial Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    廖湖声

    2000-01-01

    This paper proposes an action analysis for implementing combining partial evaluation efficiently. By analyzing the results of binding time analysis, operations, which should be used in the combining partial evaluation, are determined in advance, so that the computation in the combination of specialized programs is reduced effectively.

  5. The landscape of the prion protein's structural response to mutation revealed by principal component analysis of multiple NMR ensembles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deena M A Gendoo

    Full Text Available Prion Proteins (PrP are among a small number of proteins for which large numbers of NMR ensembles have been resolved for sequence mutants and diverse species. Here, we perform a comprehensive principle components analysis (PCA on the tertiary structures of PrP globular proteins to discern PrP subdomains that exhibit conformational change in response to point mutations and clade-specific evolutionary sequence mutation trends. This is to our knowledge the first such large-scale analysis of multiple NMR ensembles of protein structures, and the first study of its kind for PrPs. We conducted PCA on human (n = 11, mouse (n = 14, and wildtype (n = 21 sets of PrP globular structures, from which we identified five conformationally variable subdomains within PrP. PCA shows that different non-local patterns and rankings of variable subdomains arise for different pathogenic mutants. These subdomains may thus be key areas for initiating PrP conversion during disease. Furthermore, we have observed the conformational clustering of divergent TSE-non-susceptible species pairs; these non-phylogenetic clusterings indicate structural solutions towards TSE resistance that do not necessarily coincide with evolutionary divergence. We discuss the novelty of our approach and the importance of PrP subdomains in structural conversion during disease.

  6. Uncertainty analysis of neural network based flood forecasting models: An ensemble based approach for constructing prediction interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasiviswanathan, K.; Sudheer, K.

    2013-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) based hydrologic models have gained lot of attention among water resources engineers and scientists, owing to their potential for accurate prediction of flood flows as compared to conceptual or physics based hydrologic models. The ANN approximates the non-linear functional relationship between the complex hydrologic variables in arriving at the river flow forecast values. Despite a large number of applications, there is still some criticism that ANN's point prediction lacks in reliability since the uncertainty of predictions are not quantified, and it limits its use in practical applications. A major concern in application of traditional uncertainty analysis techniques on neural network framework is its parallel computing architecture with large degrees of freedom, which makes the uncertainty assessment a challenging task. Very limited studies have considered assessment of predictive uncertainty of ANN based hydrologic models. In this study, a novel method is proposed that help construct the prediction interval of ANN flood forecasting model during calibration itself. The method is designed to have two stages of optimization during calibration: at stage 1, the ANN model is trained with genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain optimal set of weights and biases vector, and during stage 2, the optimal variability of ANN parameters (obtained in stage 1) is identified so as to create an ensemble of predictions. During the 2nd stage, the optimization is performed with multiple objectives, (i) minimum residual variance for the ensemble mean, (ii) maximum measured data points to fall within the estimated prediction interval and (iii) minimum width of prediction interval. The method is illustrated using a real world case study of an Indian basin. The method was able to produce an ensemble that has an average prediction interval width of 23.03 m3/s, with 97.17% of the total validation data points (measured) lying within the interval. The derived

  7. A Flexible Approach for the Statistical Visualization of Ensemble Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potter, K. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). SCI Institute; Wilson, A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bremer, P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pascucci, V. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). SCI Institute; Johnson, C. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). SCI Institute

    2009-09-29

    Scientists are increasingly moving towards ensemble data sets to explore relationships present in dynamic systems. Ensemble data sets combine spatio-temporal simulation results generated using multiple numerical models, sampled input conditions and perturbed parameters. While ensemble data sets are a powerful tool for mitigating uncertainty, they pose significant visualization and analysis challenges due to their complexity. We present a collection of overview and statistical displays linked through a high level of interactivity to provide a framework for gaining key scientific insight into the distribution of the simulation results as well as the uncertainty associated with the data. In contrast to methods that present large amounts of diverse information in a single display, we argue that combining multiple linked statistical displays yields a clearer presentation of the data and facilitates a greater level of visual data analysis. We demonstrate this approach using driving problems from climate modeling and meteorology and discuss generalizations to other fields.

  8. Effective screening strategy using ensembled pharmacophore models combined with cascade docking: application to p53-MDM2 interaction inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Xin; Wei, Jin-Lian; Xu, Li-Li; Xi, Mei-Yang; Xu, Xiao-Li; Liu, Fang; Guo, Xiao-Ke; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Xiao-Jin; Zhang, Ming-Ye; Lu, Meng-Chen; Sun, Hao-Peng; You, Qi-Dong

    2013-10-28

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) play a crucial role in cellular function and form the backbone of almost all biochemical processes. In recent years, protein-protein interaction inhibitors (PPIIs) have represented a treasure trove of potential new drug targets. Unfortunately, there are few successful drugs of PPIIs on the market. Structure-based pharmacophore (SBP) combined with docking has been demonstrated as a useful Virtual Screening (VS) strategy in drug development projects. However, the combination of target complexity and poor binding affinity prediction has thwarted the application of this strategy in the discovery of PPIIs. Here we report an effective VS strategy on p53-MDM2 PPI. First, we built a SBP model based on p53-MDM2 complex cocrystal structures. The model was then simplified by using a Receptor-Ligand complex-based pharmacophore model considering the critical binding features between MDM2 and its small molecular inhibitors. Cascade docking was subsequently applied to improve the hit rate. Based on this strategy, we performed VS on NCI and SPECS databases and successfully discovered 6 novel compounds from 15 hits with the best, compound 1 (NSC 5359), K(i) = 180 ± 50 nM. These compounds can serve as lead compounds for further optimization. PMID:24050442

  9. On the structure and phase transitions of power-law Poissonian ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliazar, Iddo; Oshanin, Gleb

    2012-10-01

    Power-law Poissonian ensembles are Poisson processes that are defined on the positive half-line, and that are governed by power-law intensities. Power-law Poissonian ensembles are stochastic objects of fundamental significance; they uniquely display an array of fractal features and they uniquely generate a span of important applications. In this paper we apply three different methods—oligarchic analysis, Lorenzian analysis and heterogeneity analysis—to explore power-law Poissonian ensembles. The amalgamation of these analyses, combined with the topology of power-law Poissonian ensembles, establishes a detailed and multi-faceted picture of the statistical structure and the statistical phase transitions of these elemental ensembles.

  10. Composed ensembles of random unitary ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Pozniak, M; Kus, M; Pozniak, Marcin; Zyczkowski, Karol; Kus, Marek

    1997-01-01

    Composed ensembles of random unitary matrices are defined via products of matrices, each pertaining to a given canonical circular ensemble of Dyson. We investigate statistical properties of spectra of some composed ensembles and demonstrate their physical relevance. We discuss also the methods of generating random matrices distributed according to invariant Haar measure on the orthogonal and unitary group.

  11. An ensemble distance measure of k-mer and Natural Vector for the phylogenetic analysis of multiple-segmented viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hsin-Hsiung

    2016-06-01

    The Natural Vector combined with Hausdorff distance has been successfully applied for classifying and clustering multiple-segmented viruses. Additionally, k-mer methods also yield promising results for global genome comparison. It is not known whether combining these two approaches can lead to more accurate results. The author proposes a method of combining the Hausdorff distances of the 5-mer counting vectors and natural vectors which achieves the best classification without cutting off any sample. Using the proposed method to predict the taxonomic labels for the 2363 NCBI reference viral genomes dataset, the accuracy rates are 96.95%, 94.37%, 99.41% and 93.82% for the Baltimore, family, subfamily, and genus labels, respectively. We further applied the proposed method to 48 isolates of the influenza A H7N9 viruses which have eight complete segments of nucleotide sequences. The single-linkage clustering trees and the statistical hypothesis testing results all indicate that the proposed ensemble distance measure can cluster viruses well using all of their segments of genome sequences.

  12. Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filtering

    CERN Document Server

    Tsyrulnikov, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), when applied to high-dimensional systems, suffers from an inevitably small affordable ensemble size, which results in poor estimates of the background error covariance matrix ${\\bf B}$. The common remedy is a kind of regularization, usually an ad-hoc spatial covariance localization (tapering) combined with artificial covariance inflation. Instead of using an ad-hoc regularization, we adopt the idea by Myrseth and Omre (2010) and explicitly admit that the ${\\bf B}$ matrix is unknown and random and estimate it along with the state (${\\bf x}$) in an optimal hierarchical Bayes analysis scheme. We separate forecast errors into predictability errors (i.e. forecast errors due to uncertainties in the initial data) and model errors (forecast errors due to imperfections in the forecast model) and include the two respective components ${\\bf P}$ and ${\\bf Q}$ of the ${\\bf B}$ matrix into the extended control vector $({\\bf x},{\\bf P},{\\bf Q})$. Similarly, we break the traditional backgrou...

  13. [Removal Algorithm of Power Line Interference in Electrocardiogram Based on Morphological Component Analysis and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Xiao, Shixiao; Zhang, Baocan; Huang, Xiaojing; You, Rongyi

    2015-12-01

    Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals are susceptible to be disturbed by 50 Hz power line interference (PLI) in the process of acquisition and conversion. This paper, therefore, proposes a novel PLI removal algorithm based on morphological component analysis (MCA) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Firstly, according to the morphological differences in ECG waveform characteristics, the noisy ECG signal was decomposed into the mutated component, the smooth component and the residual component by MCA. Secondly, intrinsic mode functions (IMF) of PLI was filtered. The noise suppression rate (NSR) and the signal distortion ratio (SDR) were used to evaluate the effect of de-noising algorithm. Finally, the ECG signals were re-constructed. Based on the experimental comparison, it was concluded that the proposed algorithm had better filtering functions than the improved Levkov algorithm, because it could not only effectively filter the PLI, but also have smaller SDR value. PMID:27079083

  14. Ensemble algorithms in reinforcement learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiering, Marco A; van Hasselt, Hado

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes several ensemble methods that combine multiple different reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in a single agent. The aim is to enhance learning speed and final performance by combining the chosen actions or action probabilities of different RL algorithms. We designed and imple

  15. Spin-orbit alignment of exoplanet systems: ensemble analysis using asteroseismology

    CERN Document Server

    Campante, T L; Kuszlewicz, J S; Davies, G R; Chaplin, W J; Albrecht, S; Winn, J N; Bedding, T R; Benomar, O; Bossini, D; Handberg, R; Santos, A R G; Van Eylen, V; Basu, S; Christensen-Dalsgaard, J; Elsworth, Y P; Hekker, S; Hirano, T; Huber, D; Karoff, C; Kjeldsen, H; Lundkvist, M S; North, T S H; Aguirre, V Silva; Stello, D; White, T R

    2016-01-01

    The angle $\\psi$ between a planet's orbital axis and the spin axis of its parent star is an important diagnostic of planet formation, migration, and tidal evolution. We seek empirical constraints on $\\psi$ by measuring the stellar inclination $i_{\\rm s}$ via asteroseismology for an ensemble of 25 solar-type hosts observed with NASA's Kepler satellite. Our results for $i_{\\rm s}$ are consistent with alignment at the 2-$\\sigma$ level for all stars in the sample, meaning that the system surrounding the red-giant star Kepler-56 remains as the only unambiguous misaligned multiple-planet system detected to date. The availability of a measurement of the projected spin-orbit angle $\\lambda$ for two of the systems allows us to estimate $\\psi$. We find that the orbit of the hot-Jupiter HAT-P-7b is likely to be retrograde ($\\psi=116.4^{+30.2}_{-14.7}\\:{\\rm deg}$), whereas that of Kepler-25c seems to be well aligned with the stellar spin axis ($\\psi=12.6^{+6.7}_{-11.0}\\:{\\rm deg}$). While the latter result is in apparent...

  16. Ensemble algorithms in reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiering, Marco A; van Hasselt, Hado

    2008-08-01

    This paper describes several ensemble methods that combine multiple different reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in a single agent. The aim is to enhance learning speed and final performance by combining the chosen actions or action probabilities of different RL algorithms. We designed and implemented four different ensemble methods combining the following five different RL algorithms: Q-learning, Sarsa, actor-critic (AC), QV-learning, and AC learning automaton. The intuitively designed ensemble methods, namely, majority voting (MV), rank voting, Boltzmann multiplication (BM), and Boltzmann addition, combine the policies derived from the value functions of the different RL algorithms, in contrast to previous work where ensemble methods have been used in RL for representing and learning a single value function. We show experiments on five maze problems of varying complexity; the first problem is simple, but the other four maze tasks are of a dynamic or partially observable nature. The results indicate that the BM and MV ensembles significantly outperform the single RL algorithms. PMID:18632380

  17. A Clustered Multiclass Likelihood-Ratio Ensemble Method for Family-Based Association Analysis Accounting for Phenotypic Heterogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yalu; Lu, Qing

    2016-09-01

    Although compelling evidence suggests that the genetic etiology of complex diseases could be heterogeneous in subphenotype groups, little attention has been paid to phenotypic heterogeneity in genetic association analysis of complex diseases. Simply ignoring phenotypic heterogeneity in association analysis could result in attenuated estimates of genetic effects and low power of association tests if subphenotypes with similar clinical manifestations have heterogeneous underlying genetic etiologies. To facilitate the family-based association analysis allowing for phenotypic heterogeneity, we propose a clustered multiclass likelihood-ratio ensemble (CMLRE) method. The proposed method provides an alternative way to model the complex relationship between disease outcomes and genetic variants. It allows for heterogeneous genetic causes of disease subphenotypes and can be applied to various pedigree structures. Through simulations, we found CMLRE outperformed the commonly adopted strategies in a variety of underlying disease scenarios. We further applied CMLRE to a family-based dataset from the International Consortium to Identify Genes and Interactions Controlling Oral Clefts (ICOC) to investigate the genetic variants and interactions predisposing to subphenotypes of oral clefts. The analysis suggested that two subphenotypes, nonsyndromic cleft lip without palate (CL) and cleft lip with palate (CLP), shared similar genetic etiologies, while cleft palate only (CP) had its own genetic mechanism. The analysis further revealed that rs10863790 (IRF6), rs7017252 (8q24), and rs7078160 (VAX1) were jointly associated with CL/CLP, while rs7969932 (TBK1), rs227731 (17q22), and rs2141765 (TBK1) jointly contributed to CP.

  18. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2016-08-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  19. Convergence analysis of combinations of different methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Y. [Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY (United States)

    1994-12-31

    This paper provides a convergence analysis for combinations of different numerical methods for solving systems of differential equations. The author proves that combinations of two convergent linear multistep methods or Runge-Kutta methods produce a new convergent method of which the order is equal to the smaller order of the two original methods.

  20. Classification of Cancer Gene Selection Using Random Forest and Neural Network Based Ensemble Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jogendra Kushwah

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The free radical gene classification of cancer diseases is challenging job in biomedical data engineering. The improving of classification of gene selection of cancer diseases various classifier are used, but the classification of classifier are not validate. So ensemble classifier is used for cancer gene classification using neural network classifier with random forest tree. The random forest tree is ensembling technique of classifier in this technique the number of classifier ensemble of their leaf node of class of classifier. In this paper we combined neural network with random forest ensemble classifier for classification of cancer gene selection for diagnose analysis of cancer diseases. The proposed method is different from most of the methods of ensemble classifier, which follow an input output paradigm of neural network, where the members of the ensemble are selected from a set of neural network classifier. the number of classifiers is determined during the rising procedure of the forest. Furthermore, the proposed method produces an ensemble not only correct, but also assorted, ensuring the two important properties that should characterize an ensemble classifier. For empirical evaluation of our proposed method we used UCI cancer diseases data set for classification. Our experimental result shows that better result in compression of random forest tree classification.

  1. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dynamic ensemble copula coupling approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben; Theis, Susanne E; Pinson, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost.For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method consists in rebuilding the multivariate aspect of the forecast from the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new approach which preserves the dynamical development of the ensemble members is called dynamic ensemble copula coupling (...

  2. Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano

    2016-05-01

    Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances. PMID:27069054

  3. Evaluation of LDA Ensembles Classifiers for Brain Computer Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arjona, Cristian; Pentácolo, José; Gareis, Iván; Atum, Yanina; Gentiletti, Gerardo; Acevedo, Rubén; Rufiner, Leonardo

    2011-12-01

    The Brain Computer Interface (BCI) translates brain activity into computer commands. To increase the performance of the BCI, to decode the user intentions it is necessary to get better the feature extraction and classification techniques. In this article the performance of a three linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers ensemble is studied. The system based on ensemble can theoretically achieved better classification results than the individual counterpart, regarding individual classifier generation algorithm and the procedures for combine their outputs. Classic algorithms based on ensembles such as bagging and boosting are discussed here. For the application on BCI, it was concluded that the generated results using ER and AUC as performance index do not give enough information to establish which configuration is better.

  4. A Gaussian mixture ensemble transform filter

    OpenAIRE

    Reich, Sebastian

    2011-01-01

    We generalize the popular ensemble Kalman filter to an ensemble transform filter where the prior distribution can take the form of a Gaussian mixture or a Gaussian kernel density estimator. The design of the filter is based on a continuous formulation of the Bayesian filter analysis step. We call the new filter algorithm the ensemble Gaussian mixture filter (EGMF). The EGMF is implemented for three simple test problems (Brownian dynamics in one dimension, Langevin dynamics in two dimensions, ...

  5. Supervised Ensemble Classification of Kepler Variable Stars

    CERN Document Server

    Bass, Gideon

    2016-01-01

    Variable star analysis and classification is an important task in the understanding of stellar features and processes. While historically classifications have been done manually by highly skilled experts, the recent and rapid expansion in the quantity and quality of data has demanded new techniques, most notably automatic classification through supervised machine learning. We present an expansion of existing work on the field by analyzing variable stars in the {\\em Kepler} field using an ensemble approach, combining multiple characterization and classification techniques to produce improved classification rates. Classifications for each of the roughly 150,000 stars observed by {\\em Kepler} are produced separating the stars into one of 14 variable star classes.

  6. Fault Early Diagnosis of Rolling Element Bearings Combining Wavelet Filtering and Degree of Cyclostationarity Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Fu-chang; CHEN Jin; HE Jun; BI Guo; LI Fu-cai; ZHANG Gui-cai

    2005-01-01

    The vibration signals of rolling element bearing are produced by a combination of periodic and random processes due to the machine's rotation cycle and interaction with the real world. The combination of such components can give rise to signals, which have periodically time-varying ensemble statistical and are best considered as cyclostationary. When the early fault occurs, the background noise is very heavy, it is difficult to disclose the latent periodic components successfully using cyclostationary analysis alone. In this paper the degree of cyclostationarity is combined with wavelet filtering for detection of rolling element bearing early faults. Using the proposed entropy minimization rule. The parameters of the wavelet filter are optimized. This method is shown to be effective in detecting rolling element bearing early fault when cyclostationary analysis by itself fails.

  7. Partial volume correction of the microPET blood input function using ensemble learning independent component analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medical images usually suffer from a partial volume effect (PVE), which may degrade the accuracy of any quantitative information extracted from the images. Our aim was to recreate accurate radioactivity concentration and time-activity curves (TACs) by microPET R4 quantification using ensemble learning independent component analysis (EL-ICA). We designed a digital cardiac phantom for this simulation and in order to evaluate the ability of EL-ICA to correct the PVE, the simulated images were convoluted using a Gaussian function (FWHM = 1-4 mm). The robustness of the proposed method towards noise was investigated by adding statistical noise (SNR = 2-16). During further evaluation, another set of cardiac phantoms were generated from the reconstructed images, and Poisson noise at different levels was added to the sinogram. In real experiments, four rat microPET images and a number of arterial blood samples were obtained; these were used to estimate the metabolic rate of FDG (MRFDG). Input functions estimated using the FastICA method were used for comparison. The results showed that EL-ICA could correct PVE in both the simulated and real cases. After correcting for the PVE, the errors for MRFDG, when estimated by the EL-ICA method, were smaller than those when TACs were directly derived from the PET images and when the FastICA approach was used.

  8. Analysis of the efficiency and potential collapse of the ensemble Kalman filter for marginal and joint posteriors

    CERN Document Server

    Morzfeld, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    In data assimilation one updates the state of a numerical model with information from sparse and noisy observations of the model's state. A popular approach to data assimilation in geophysical applications is the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). An alternative approach is particle filtering and, recently, much theoretical work has been done to understand the abilities and limitations of particle filters. Here we extend this work to EnKF. First we explain that EnKF and particle filters solve different problems: the EnKF approximates a specific marginal of the joint posterior of particle filters. We then perform a linear analysis of the EnKF as a sequential sampling algorithm for the joint posterior (i.e. as a particle filter), and show that the EnKF collapses on this problem in the exact same way and under similar conditions as particle filters. However, it is critical to realize that the collapse of the EnKF on the joint posterior does not imply its collapse on the marginal posterior. This raises the question, ...

  9. Energy Analysis in Combined Reforming of Propane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Moon

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Combined (steam and CO2 reforming is one of the methods to produce syngas for different applications. An energy requirement analysis of steam reforming to dry reforming with intermediate steps of steam reduction and equivalent CO2 addition to the feed fuel for syngas generation has been done to identify condition for optimum process operation. Thermodynamic equilibrium data for combined reforming was generated for temperature range of 400–1000°C at 1 bar pressure and combined oxidant (CO2 + H2O stream to propane (fuel ratio of 3, 6, and 9 by employing the Gibbs free energy minimization algorithm of HSC Chemistry software 5.1. Total energy requirement including preheating and reaction enthalpy calculations were done using the equilibrium product composition. Carbon and methane formation was significantly reduced in combined reforming than pure dry reforming, while the energy requirements were lower than pure steam reforming. Temperatures of minimum energy requirement were found in the data analysis of combined reforming which were optimum for the process.

  10. Using Analysis State to Construct a Forecast Error Covariance Matrix in Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Xiaogu; WU Guocan; ZHANG Shupeng; LIANG Xiao; DAI Yongjiu; LI Yong

    2013-01-01

    Correctly estimating the forecast error covariance matrix is a key step in any data assimilation scheme.If it is not correctly estimated,the assimilated states could be far from the true states.A popular method to address this problem is error covariance matrix inflation.That is,to multiply the forecast error covariance matrix by an appropriate factor.In this paper,analysis states are used to construct the forecast error covariance matrix and an adaptive estimation procedure associated with the error covariance matrix inflation technique is developed.The proposed assimilation scheme was tested on the Lorenz-96 model and 2D Shallow Water Equation model,both of which are associated with spatially correlated observational systems.The experiments showed that by introducing the proposed structure of the forecast error covariance matrix and applying its adaptive estimation procedure,the assimilation results were further improved.

  11. Evaluation of an ensemble-based incremental variational data assimilation

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yin; Robinson, Cordelia; Heitz, Dominique; Mémin, Etienne

    2014-01-01

    In this work, we aim at studying ensemble based optimal control strategies for data assimilation. Such formulation nicely combines the ingredients of ensemble Kalman filters and variational data assimilation (4DVar). In the same way as variational assimilation schemes, it is formulated as the minimization of an objective function, but similarly to ensemble filter, it introduces in its objective function an empirical ensemble-based background-error covariance and works in an off-line smoothing...

  12. Analysis and modeling of ensemble recordings from respiratory pre-motor neurons indicate changes in functional network architecture after acute hypoxia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto F Galán

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We have combined neurophysiologic recording, statistical analysis, and computational modeling to investigate the dynamics of the respiratory network in the brainstem. Using a multielectrode array, we recorded ensembles of respiratory neurons in perfused in situ rat preparations that produce spontaneous breathing patterns, focusing on inspiratory pre-motor neurons. We compared firing rates and neuronal synchronization among these neurons before and after a brief hypoxic stimulus. We observed a significant decrease in the number of spikes after stimulation, in part due to a transient slowing of the respiratory pattern. However, the median interspike interval did not change, suggesting that the firing threshold of the neurons was not affected but rather the synaptic input was. A bootstrap analysis of synchrony between spike trains revealed that, both before and after brief hypoxia, up to 45 % (but typically less than 5 % of coincident spikes across neuronal pairs was not explained by chance. Most likely, this synchrony resulted from common synaptic input to the pre-motor population, an example of stochastic synchronization. After brief hypoxia most pairs were less synchronized, although some were more, suggesting that the respiratory network was “rewired” transiently after the stimulus. To investigate this hypothesis, we created a simple computational model with feed-forward divergent connections along the inspiratory pathway. Assuming that 1 the number of divergent projections was not the same for all presynaptic cells, but rather spanned a wide range and 2 that the stimulus increased inhibition at the top of the network; this model reproduced the reduction in firing rate and bootstrap-corrected synchrony subsequent to hypoxic stimulation observed in our experimental data.

  13. Analysis of fractals with combined partition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedovich, T. G.; Tokarev, M. V.

    2016-03-01

    The space—time properties in the general theory of relativity, as well as the discreteness and non-Archimedean property of space in the quantum theory of gravitation, are discussed. It is emphasized that the properties of bodies in non-Archimedean spaces coincide with the properties of the field of P-adic numbers and fractals. It is suggested that parton showers, used for describing interactions between particles and nuclei at high energies, have a fractal structure. A mechanism of fractal formation with combined partition is considered. The modified SePaC method is offered for the analysis of such fractals. The BC, PaC, and SePaC methods for determining a fractal dimension and other fractal characteristics (numbers of levels and values of a base of forming a fractal) are considered. It is found that the SePaC method has advantages for the analysis of fractals with combined partition.

  14. Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staras, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture. PMID:27760125

  15. Nonlinear stability and ergodicity of ensemble based Kalman filters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Xin T.; Majda, Andrew J.; Kelly, David

    2016-02-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble square root filter (ESRF) are data assimilation methods used to combine high dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Despite their widespread usage in climate science and oil reservoir simulation, very little is known about the long-time behavior of these methods and why they are effective when applied with modest ensemble sizes in large dimensional turbulent dynamical systems. By following the basic principles of energy dissipation and controllability of filters, this paper establishes a simple, systematic and rigorous framework for the nonlinear analysis of EnKF and ESRF with arbitrary ensemble size, focusing on the dynamical properties of boundedness and geometric ergodicity. The time uniform boundedness guarantees that the filter estimate will not diverge to machine infinity in finite time, which is a potential threat for EnKF and ESQF known as the catastrophic filter divergence. Geometric ergodicity ensures in addition that the filter has a unique invariant measure and that initialization errors will dissipate exponentially in time. We establish these results by introducing a natural notion of observable energy dissipation. The time uniform bound is achieved through a simple Lyapunov function argument, this result applies to systems with complete observations and strong kinetic energy dissipation, but also to concrete examples with incomplete observations. With the Lyapunov function argument established, the geometric ergodicity is obtained by verifying the controllability of the filter processes; in particular, such analysis for ESQF relies on a careful multivariate perturbation analysis of the covariance eigen-structure.

  16. Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods. PMID:25751882

  17. Thermodynamic Analysis of Combined Cycle Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.K.Tiwari,

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Air Bottoming Cycle (ABC can replace the heat recovery steam generator and the steam turbine of the conventionalcombined cycle plant. The exhaust energy of the topping gas turbine of existing combine cycle is sent to gas-air heat exchange, which heats the air in the secondary gas turbine cycle. In 1980’s the ABC was proposed as an alternative for the conventional steam bottoming cycle. In spite of the cost of reducing hardware installations it could achieve a thermal efficiency of 80%. The complete thermodynamic analysis of the system has been performed by using specially designed programme, enabling the variation of main independent variables. The result shows the gain in net work output as well as efficiency of combined cycle is 35% to 68%.

  18. Online Learning with Ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    Urbanczik, R

    1999-01-01

    Supervised online learning with an ensemble of students randomized by the choice of initial conditions is analyzed. For the case of the perceptron learning rule, asymptotically the same improvement in the generalization error of the ensemble compared to the performance of a single student is found as in Gibbs learning. For more optimized learning rules, however, using an ensemble yields no improvement. This is explained by showing that for any learning rule $f$ a transform $\\tilde{f}$ exists,...

  19. PHARMACOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ANTIHYPERTENSIVE DRUG COMBINATIONS USE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. I. Tarlovskaya

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To pursue pharmacoeconomic analysis of two drug combinations of ACE inhibitor (enalapril and diuretic.Material and methods. Patients with arterial hypertension degree 2 and diabetes mellitus type 2 without ischemic heart disease (n=56 were included into the study. Blood pressure (BP dynamics and cost/effectiveness ratio were evaluated.Results. In group A (fixed combination of original enalapril/hydrochlorothiazide 61% of patients achieved target BP level with initial dose, and the rest 39% of patients – with double dose. In group B (non-fixed combination of generic enalapril/indapamide 60% of patients achieved the target BP with initial dose of drugs, 33% - with double dose of ACE inhibitor, and 7% - with additional amlodipine administration. In patients of group A systolic BP (SBP reduction was 45.82±1.23 mm Hg by the 12th week vs. 40.0±0.81 mm Hg in patients of group B; diastolic BP (DBP reduction was 22.47±1.05 mm Hg and 18.76±0.70 mm Hg, respectively, by the 12th week of treatment. In the first month of treatment costs of target BP achievement was 298.62 rubles per patient in group A, and 299.50 rubles – in group B; by the 12th week of treatment – 629.45 and 631.22 rubles, respectively. Costs of SBP and DBP reduction by 1 mm Hg during 12 weeks of therapy were 13 and 27 rubles per patient, respectively, in group A, and 16 and 34 rubles per patient, respectively, in group B.Conclusion. The original fixed combination (enalapril+hydrochlorothiazide proved to be more clinically effective and more cost effective in the treatment of hypertensive patients in comparison with the non-fixed combination of generic drugs (enalapril+indapamide.

  20. PHARMACOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ANTIHYPERTENSIVE DRUG COMBINATIONS USE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. I. Tarlovskaya

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To pursue pharmacoeconomic analysis of two drug combinations of ACE inhibitor (enalapril and diuretic.Material and methods. Patients with arterial hypertension degree 2 and diabetes mellitus type 2 without ischemic heart disease (n=56 were included into the study. Blood pressure (BP dynamics and cost/effectiveness ratio were evaluated.Results. In group A (fixed combination of original enalapril/hydrochlorothiazide 61% of patients achieved target BP level with initial dose, and the rest 39% of patients – with double dose. In group B (non-fixed combination of generic enalapril/indapamide 60% of patients achieved the target BP with initial dose of drugs, 33% - with double dose of ACE inhibitor, and 7% - with additional amlodipine administration. In patients of group A systolic BP (SBP reduction was 45.82±1.23 mm Hg by the 12th week vs. 40.0±0.81 mm Hg in patients of group B; diastolic BP (DBP reduction was 22.47±1.05 mm Hg and 18.76±0.70 mm Hg, respectively, by the 12th week of treatment. In the first month of treatment costs of target BP achievement was 298.62 rubles per patient in group A, and 299.50 rubles – in group B; by the 12th week of treatment – 629.45 and 631.22 rubles, respectively. Costs of SBP and DBP reduction by 1 mm Hg during 12 weeks of therapy were 13 and 27 rubles per patient, respectively, in group A, and 16 and 34 rubles per patient, respectively, in group B.Conclusion. The original fixed combination (enalapril+hydrochlorothiazide proved to be more clinically effective and more cost effective in the treatment of hypertensive patients in comparison with the non-fixed combination of generic drugs (enalapril+indapamide.

  1. A genetic ensemble approach for gene-gene interaction identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Joshua WK

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It has now become clear that gene-gene interactions and gene-environment interactions are ubiquitous and fundamental mechanisms for the development of complex diseases. Though a considerable effort has been put into developing statistical models and algorithmic strategies for identifying such interactions, the accurate identification of those genetic interactions has been proven to be very challenging. Methods In this paper, we propose a new approach for identifying such gene-gene and gene-environment interactions underlying complex diseases. This is a hybrid algorithm and it combines genetic algorithm (GA and an ensemble of classifiers (called genetic ensemble. Using this approach, the original problem of SNP interaction identification is converted into a data mining problem of combinatorial feature selection. By collecting various single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP subsets as well as environmental factors generated in multiple GA runs, patterns of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions can be extracted using a simple combinatorial ranking method. Also considered in this study is the idea of combining identification results obtained from multiple algorithms. A novel formula based on pairwise double fault is designed to quantify the degree of complementarity. Conclusions Our simulation study demonstrates that the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm has comparable identification power to Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR and is slightly better than Polymorphism Interaction Analysis (PIA, which are the two most popular methods for gene-gene interaction identification. More importantly, the identification results generated by using our genetic ensemble algorithm are highly complementary to those obtained by PIA and MDR. Experimental results from our simulation studies and real world data application also confirm the effectiveness of the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm, as well as the potential benefits of

  2. Four-dimensional Localization and the Iterative Ensemble Kalman Smoother

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocquet, M.

    2015-12-01

    The iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) is a data assimilation method meant for efficiently tracking the state ofnonlinear geophysical models. It combines an ensemble of model states to estimate the errors similarly to the ensemblesquare root Kalman filter, with a 4D-variational analysis performed within the ensemble space. As such it belongs tothe class of ensemble variational methods. Recently introduced 4DEnVar or the 4D-LETKF can be seen as particular casesof the scheme. The IEnKS was shown to outperform 4D-Var, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and smoother, with low-ordermodels in all investigated dynamical regimes. Like any ensemble method, it could require the use of localization of theanalysis when the state space dimension is high. However, localization for the IEnKS is not as straightforward as forthe EnKF. Indeed, localization needs to be defined across time, and it needs to be as much as possible consistent withthe dynamical flow within the data assimilation variational window. We show that a Liouville equation governs the timeevolution of the localization operator, which is linked to the evolution of the error correlations. It is argued thatits time integration strongly depends on the forecast dynamics. Using either covariance localization or domainlocalization, we propose and test several localization strategies meant to address the issue: (i) a constant and uniformlocalization, (ii) the propagation through the window of a restricted set of dominant modes of the error covariancematrix, (iii) the approximate propagation of the localization operator using model covariant local domains. Theseschemes are illustrated on the one-dimensional Lorenz 40-variable model.

  3. 基于多特征集成分类器的脱机满文识别方法%Off-line Manchu character recognition based on multi-classifier ensemble with combination features

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏巍; 郭晨

    2012-01-01

    为提高脱机满文手写字体的识别率,提出了基于BP网络的多特征集成分类器识别方法.对扫描成图像的手写满文进行预处理,切分出满文字元;分别提取满文字元的投影特征、链码特征以及端点和交叉点特征,并对这三类特征及其相互组合进行分类识别;通过隐马尔科夫算法对识别结果进行后处理,进一步提高识别的精度.实验结果表明,集成分类器的识别率要比单个特征的识别率要高,同时集成分类器中的特征类别越多,识别效果越好.%To improve the off-line Manchu handwritten character recognition rate, a method of recognition based on the multi-classifier of back propagation neural network ensemble with combination features is presented. Firstly, the preprocessing is performed to segment the Manchu character units aiming at Manchu character image. Secondly, it is implemented to recognize the projection feature, chain code one and begin and end point and cross point one of Manchu character unit and the combination features of these ones. Finally, the post processing of Manchu character recognition result is done by the method of hidden Markov model and the recognition rate further is improved. The result of the experiment shows that the recognition rate of the multi-classifier ensemble is higher than the single one and the more features, the better in the multi-classifier ensemble.

  4. Real-time Reservoir Operation Based on a Combination of Long-term and Short-term Optimization and Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, P.; Tilmant, A.; Boucher, M.; Anctil, F.

    2012-12-01

    In a reservoir system, benefits are usually increased if the system is operated in a coordinated manner. However, despite ever increasing computational power available to users, the optimization of a large system of reservoirs and hydropower stations remains a challenge, especially if uncertainties are included. When applying optimization methods, such as stochastic dynamic programming, the size of a problem becomes quickly too large to be solved. This situation is also known as the curse of dimensionality which limits the applicability of SDP to systems involving only two to three reservoirs. The fact that by design most reservoirs serve multiple purposes adds another difficulty when the operation is to be optimized. A method which is able to address the optimization of multi-purpose reservoirs even in large systems is stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP). This approximative dynamic programming technique represents the future benefit function with a number of hyperplanes. The SDDP model developed in this study maximizes the expected net benefits associated with the operation of a reservoir system on a midterm horizon (several years, monthly time step). SDDP provides, at each time step, estimates of the marginal water value stored in each reservoir. Reservoir operators, however, are interested in day-to-day decisions. To provide an operational optimization framework tailored for short-term decision support, the SDDP optimization can be coupled with a short-term nonlinear programming optimization using hydrological ensemble forecasts. The short-term objective therefore consists of the total electricity production within the forecast horizon and the total value of water stored in all the reservoirs. Thus, maximizing this objective ensures that a short-term decision does not contradict the strategic planning. This optimization framework is implemented for the Gatineau river basin, a sub-basin of the Ottawa river north of the city of Ottawa. The Gatineau river

  5. Rydberg ensemble based CNOTN gates using STIRAP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gujarati, Tanvi; Duan, Luming

    2016-05-01

    Schemes for implementation of CNOT gates in atomic ensembles are important for realization of quantum computing. We present here a theoretical scheme of a CNOTN gate with an ensemble of three-level atoms in the lambda configuration and a single two-level control atom. We work in the regime of Rydberg blockade for the ensemble atoms due to excitation of the Rydberg control atom. It is shown that using STIRAP, atoms from one ground state of the ensemble can be adiabatically transferred to the other ground state, depending on the state of the control atom. A thorough analysis of adiabatic conditions for this scheme and the influence of the radiative decay is provided. We show that the CNOTN process is immune to the decay rate of the excited level in ensemble atoms. This work is supported by the ARL, the IARPA LogiQ program, and the AFOSR MURI program.

  6. Statistical analysis of simulated global soil moisture and its memory in an ensemble of CMIP5 general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiß, Felix; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Soil moisture and its memory can have a strong impact on near surface temperature and precipitation and have the potential to promote severe heat waves, dry spells and floods. To analyze how soil moisture is simulated in recent general circulation models (GCMs), soil moisture data from a 23 model ensemble of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) type simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are examined for the period 1979 to 2008 with regard to parameterization and statistical characteristics. With respect to soil moisture processes, the models vary in their maximum soil and root depth, the number of soil layers, the water-holding capacity, and the ability to simulate freezing which all together leads to very different soil moisture characteristics. Differences in the water-holding capacity are resulting in deviations in the global median soil moisture of more than one order of magnitude between the models. In contrast, the variance shows similar absolute values when comparing the models to each other. Thus, the input and output rates by precipitation and evapotranspiration, which are computed by the atmospheric component of the models, have to be in the same range. Most models simulate great variances in the monsoon areas of the tropics and north western U.S., intermediate variances in Europe and eastern U.S., and low variances in the Sahara, continental Asia, and central and western Australia. In general, the variance decreases with latitude over the high northern latitudes. As soil moisture trends in the models were found to be negligible, the soil moisture anomalies were calculated by subtracting the 30 year monthly climatology from the data. The length of the memory is determined from the soil moisture anomalies by calculating the first insignificant autocorrelation for ascending monthly lags (insignificant autocorrelation folding time). The models show a great spread of autocorrelation length from a few months in

  7. Probability-weighted ensembles of U.S. county-level climate projections for climate risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rasmussen, D J; Kopp, Robert E

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative assessment of climate change risk requires a method for constructing probabilistic time series of changes in physical climate parameters. Here, we develop two such methods, Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) and Monte Carlo Pattern/Residual (MCPR), and apply them to construct joint probability density functions (PDFs) of temperature and precipitation change over the 21st century for every county in the United States. Both methods produce $likely$ (67% probability) temperature and precipitation projections consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's interpretation of an equal-weighted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, but also provide full PDFs that include tail estimates. For example, both methods indicate that, under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, there is a 5% chance that the contiguous United States could warm by at least 8$^\\circ$C. Variance decomposition of SMME and MCPR projections indicate that background variability dominates...

  8. Ensemble methods for noise in classification problems

    OpenAIRE

    Verbaeten, Sofie; Van Assche, Anneleen

    2003-01-01

    Ensemble methods combine a set of classifiers to construct a new classifier that is (often) more accurate than any of its component classifiers. In this paper, we use ensemble methods to identify noisy training examples. More precisely, we consider the problem of mislabeled training examples in classification tasks, and address this problem by pre-processing the training set, i.e. by identifying and removing outliers from the training set. We study a number of filter techniques that are based...

  9. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Hoel, Håkon; Law, Kody J. H.; Tempone, Raul

    2015-01-01

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (ENKF), thereby yielding a multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLENKF) which has provably superior asymptotic cost to a given accuracy level. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.

  10. Ensembl regulation resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerbino, Daniel R; Johnson, Nathan; Juetteman, Thomas; Sheppard, Dan; Wilder, Steven P; Lavidas, Ilias; Nuhn, Michael; Perry, Emily; Raffaillac-Desfosses, Quentin; Sobral, Daniel; Keefe, Damian; Gräf, Stefan; Ahmed, Ikhlak; Kinsella, Rhoda; Pritchard, Bethan; Brent, Simon; Amode, Ridwan; Parker, Anne; Trevanion, Steven; Birney, Ewan; Dunham, Ian; Flicek, Paul

    2016-01-01

    New experimental techniques in epigenomics allow researchers to assay a diversity of highly dynamic features such as histone marks, DNA modifications or chromatin structure. The study of their fluctuations should provide insights into gene expression regulation, cell differentiation and disease. The Ensembl project collects and maintains the Ensembl regulation data resources on epigenetic marks, transcription factor binding and DNA methylation for human and mouse, as well as microarray probe mappings and annotations for a variety of chordate genomes. From this data, we produce a functional annotation of the regulatory elements along the human and mouse genomes with plans to expand to other species as data becomes available. Starting from well-studied cell lines, we will progressively expand our library of measurements to a greater variety of samples. Ensembl's regulation resources provide a central and easy-to-query repository for reference epigenomes. As with all Ensembl data, it is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org, from the Perl and REST APIs and from the public Ensembl MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org. Database URL: http://www.ensembl.org. PMID:26888907

  11. Enhanced ensemble-based 4DVar scheme for data assimilation

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yin; Robinson, Cordelia; Heitz, Dominique; Mémin, Etienne

    2015-01-01

    International audience Ensemble based optimal control schemes combine the components of ensemble Kalman filters and variational data assimilation (4DVar). They are trendy because they are easier to implement than 4DVar. In this paper, we evaluate a modified version of an ensemble based optimal control strategy for image data assimilation. This modified method is assessed with a Shallow Water model combined with synthetic data and original incomplete experimental depth sensor observations. ...

  12. Malignancy and Abnormality Detection of Mammograms using Classifier Ensembling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nawazish Naveed

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The breast cancer detection and diagnosis is a critical and complex procedure that demands high degree of accuracy. In computer aided diagnostic systems, the breast cancer detection is a two stage procedure. First, to classify the malignant and benign mammograms, while in second stage, the type of abnormality is detected. In this paper, we have developed a novel architecture to enhance the classification of malignant and benign mammograms using multi-classification of malignant mammograms into six abnormality classes. DWT (Discrete Wavelet Transformation features are extracted from preprocessed images and passed through different classifiers. To improve accuracy, results generated by various classifiers are ensembled. The genetic algorithm is used to find optimal weights rather than assigning weights to the results of classifiers on the basis of heuristics. The mammograms declared as malignant by ensemble classifiers are divided into six classes. The ensemble classifiers are further used for multiclassification using one-against-all technique for classification. The output of all ensemble classifiers is combined by product, median and mean rule. It has been observed that the accuracy of classification of abnormalities is more than 97% in case of mean rule. The Mammographic Image Analysis Society dataset is used for experimentation.

  13. Effect of Doubling the Ensemble Size on the Performance of Ensemble Prediction in the Warm Season Using MOGREPS Implemented at the KMA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Kyung KAY; Hyun Mee KIM; Young-Youn PARK; Joohyung SON

    2013-01-01

    Using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) implemented at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA),the effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season was evaluated.Because a finite ensemble size causes sampling error in the full forecast probability distribution function (PDF),ensemble size is closely related to the efficiency of the ensemble prediction system.Prediction capability according to doubling the ensemble size was evaluated by increasing the number of ensembles from 24 to 48 in MOGREPS implemented at the KMA.The initial analysis perturbations generated by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) were integrated for 10 days from 22 May to 23 June 2009.Several statistical verification scores were used to measure the accuracy,reliability,and resolution of ensemble probabilistic forecasts for 24 and 48 ensemble member forecasts.Even though the results were not significant,the accuracy of ensemble prediction improved slightly as ensemble size increased,especially for longer forecast times in the Northern Hemisphere.While increasing the number of ensemble members resulted in a slight improvement in resolution as forecast time increased,inconsistent results were obtained for the scores assessing the reliability of ensemble prediction.The overall performance of ensemble prediction in terms of accuracy,resolution,and reliability increased slightly with ensemble size,especially for longer forecast times.

  14. Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan D. Keller

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.

  15. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dynamic ensemble copula coupling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.;

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts...... is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost.For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method consists in rebuilding the multivariate aspect of the forecast...... from the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error...

  16. Spectral diagonal ensemble Kalman filters

    CERN Document Server

    Kasanický, Ivan; Vejmelka, Martin

    2015-01-01

    A new type of ensemble Kalman filter is developed, which is based on replacing the sample covariance in the analysis step by its diagonal in a spectral basis. It is proved that this technique improves the aproximation of the covariance when the covariance itself is diagonal in the spectral basis, as is the case, e.g., for a second-order stationary random field and the Fourier basis. The method is extended by wavelets to the case when the state variables are random fields, which are not spatially homogeneous. Efficient implementations by the fast Fourier transform (FFT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are presented for several types of observations, including high-dimensional data given on a part of the domain, such as radar and satellite images. Computational experiments confirm that the method performs well on the Lorenz 96 problem and the shallow water equations with very small ensembles and over multiple analysis cycles.

  17. Finite-size scaling analysis of localization transition for scalar waves in a 3D ensemble of resonant point scatterers

    CERN Document Server

    Skipetrov, S E

    2016-01-01

    We use the random Green's matrix model to study the scaling properties of the localization transition for scalar waves in a three-dimensional (3D) ensemble of resonant point scatterers. We show that the probability density $p(g)$ of normalized decay rates of quasi-modes $g$ is very broad at the transition and in the localized regime and that it does not obey a single-parameter scaling law. The latter holds, however, for the small-$g$ part of $p(g)$ which we exploit to estimate the critical exponent $\

  18. The architectural ensemble of the historic center in Fortaleza-CE-Brazil: statistical analysis of use and meaning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Gilberto Abreu de Souza

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Numerous documents, letters and recommendations of UNESCO discuss the importance of community in the process of revitalization, protection and preservation of architectural ensembles, especially when located in urban areas. The conservation of a particular area become successful when the structural, social, economic and cultural factors are identified, discussed and the solutions applied. In that sense, this article is the result of a research whose object, the Historic Center of Fortaleza-CE-Brazil, was evaluated from questionnaire applied to its residents, workers and users of services in this area aimed at the diagnosis on the value of historic, artistic and architectural representative 19TH century at the region.

  19. The Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) with a Global NWP Model on the Cubed Sphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Seoleun; Kang, Ji-Sun; Jo, Youngsoon

    2016-04-01

    We develop an ensemble data assimilation system using the four-dimensional local ensemble transform kalman filter (LEKTF) for a global hydrostatic numerical weather prediction (NWP) model formulated on the cubed sphere. Forecast-analysis cycles run stably and thus provide newly updated initial states for the model to produce ensemble forecasts every 6 h. Performance of LETKF implemented to the global NWP model is verified using the ECMWF reanalysis data and conventional observations. Global mean values of bias and root mean square difference are significantly reduced by the data assimilation. Besides, statistics of forecast and analysis converge well as the forecast-analysis cycles are repeated. These results suggest that the combined system of LETKF and the global NWP formulated on the cubed sphere shows a promising performance for operational uses.

  20. The Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) with a Global NWP Model on the Cubed Sphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Seoleun; Kang, Ji-Sun; Jo, Youngsoon

    2016-07-01

    We develop an ensemble data assimilation system using the four-dimensional local ensemble transform kalman filter (LEKTF) for a global hydrostatic numerical weather prediction (NWP) model formulated on the cubed sphere. Forecast-analysis cycles run stably and thus provide newly updated initial states for the model to produce ensemble forecasts every 6 h. Performance of LETKF implemented to the global NWP model is verified using the ECMWF reanalysis data and conventional observations. Global mean values of bias and root mean square difference are significantly reduced by the data assimilation. Besides, statistics of forecast and analysis converge well as the forecast-analysis cycles are repeated. These results suggest that the combined system of LETKF and the global NWP formulated on the cubed sphere shows a promising performance for operational uses.

  1. Controlling balance in an ensemble Kalman filter

    OpenAIRE

    G. A. Gottwald

    2014-01-01

    We present a method to control unbalanced fast dynamics in an ensemble Kalman filter by introducing a weak constraint on the imbalance in a spatially sparse observational network. We show that the balance constraint produces significantly more balanced analyses than ensemble Kalman filters without balance constraints and than filters implementing incremental analysis updates (IAU). Furthermore, our filter with the weak constraint on imbalance produces good rms error statisti...

  2. Ensembl variation resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin-Garcia Pablo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.

  3. Data assimilation with the weighted ensemble Kalman filter

    OpenAIRE

    Papadakis, Nicolas; Mémin, Etienne; Cuzol, Anne; Gengembre, Nicolas

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, two data assimilation methods based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling are studied and compared: the ensemble Kalman filter and the particle filter. Each of these techniques has its own advantages and drawbacks. In this work, we try to get the best of each method by combining them. The proposed algorithm, called the weighted ensemble Kalman filter, consists to rely on the Ensemble Kalman Filter updates of samples in order to define a proposal distribution for the particle filte...

  4. Enhanced Sampling in the Well-Tempered Ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Bonomi, M.; Parrinello, M

    2009-01-01

    We introduce the well-tempered ensemble (WTE) which is the biased ensemble sampled by well-tempered metadynamics when the energy is used as collective variable. WTE can be designed so as to have approximately the same average energy as the canonical ensemble but much larger fluctuations. These two properties lead to an extremely fast exploration of phase space. An even greater efficiency is obtained when WTE is combined with parallel tempering. Unbiased Boltzmann averages are computed on the ...

  5. Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Steven J; Price, Harry E; Smedley, Eric M; Meals, Cory D

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor's gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance: articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and non-majors (N = 285) viewed sixteen 30 s performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble's articulation, dynamics, technique, and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble's performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity. PMID:25104944

  6. A Localized Ensemble Kalman Smoother

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butala, Mark D.

    2012-01-01

    Numerous geophysical inverse problems prove difficult because the available measurements are indirectly related to the underlying unknown dynamic state and the physics governing the system may involve imperfect models or unobserved parameters. Data assimilation addresses these difficulties by combining the measurements and physical knowledge. The main challenge in such problems usually involves their high dimensionality and the standard statistical methods prove computationally intractable. This paper develops and addresses the theoretical convergence of a new high-dimensional Monte-Carlo approach called the localized ensemble Kalman smoother.

  7. Control Flow Analysis for SF Combinator Calculus

    OpenAIRE

    Lester, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Programs that transform other programs often require access to the internal structure of the program to be transformed. This is at odds with the usual extensional view of functional programming, as embodied by the lambda calculus and SK combinator calculus. The recently-developed SF combinator calculus offers an alternative, intensional model of computation that may serve as a foundation for developing principled languages in which to express intensional computation, including program transfo...

  8. An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Velázquez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models. The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany. Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971–2000 and a future (2041–2070 periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

  9. Comparison of Ensemble and Single Molecule Methods for Particle Characterization and Binding Analysis of a PEGylated Single-Domain Antibody.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneeweis, Lumelle A; Obenauer-Kutner, Linda; Kaur, Parminder; Yamniuk, Aaron P; Tamura, James; Jaffe, Neil; O'Mara, Brian W; Lindsay, Stuart; Doyle, Michael; Bryson, James

    2015-12-01

    Domain antibodies (dAbs) are single immunoglobulin domains that form the smallest functional unit of an antibody. This study investigates the behavior of these small proteins when covalently attached to the polyethylene glycol (PEG) moiety that is necessary for extending the half-life of a dAb. The effect of the 40 kDa PEG on hydrodynamic properties, particle behavior, and receptor binding of the dAb has been compared by both ensemble solution and surface methods [light scattering, isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC), surface Plasmon resonance (SPR)] and single-molecule atomic force microscopy (AFM) methods (topography, recognition imaging, and force microscopy). The large PEG dominates the properties of the dAb-PEG conjugate such as a hydrodynamic radius that corresponds to a globular protein over four times its size and a much reduced association rate. We have used AFM single-molecule studies to determine the mechanism of PEG-dependent reductions in the effectiveness of the dAb observed by SPR kinetic studies. Recognition imaging showed that all of the PEGylated dAb molecules are active, suggesting that some may transiently become inactive if PEG sterically blocks binding. This helps explain the disconnect between the SPR, determined kinetically, and the force microscopy and ITC results that demonstrated that PEG does not change the binding energy.

  10. Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Qiang

    2010-01-01

    Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…

  11. Imprinting and recalling cortical ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S; Yuste, Rafael

    2016-08-12

    Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent building blocks of cortical circuits. These ensembles could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations from ensembles in the visual cortex of awake mice builds neuronal ensembles that recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexisting ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single- cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. PMID:27516599

  12. Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares

    CERN Document Server

    Guerra, J A; Uritsky, V M

    2015-01-01

    We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). Using the probabilistic forecasts from three models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC) and the NOAA forecasts, we developed an ensemble forecast by linearly combining the flaring probabilities from all four methods. Performance-based combination weights were calculated using a Monte Carlo-type algorithm by applying a decision threshold $P_{th}$ to the combined probabilities and maximizing the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). Using the probabilities and events time series from 13 recent solar active regions (2012 - 2014), we found that a linear combination of probabilities can improve both probabilistic and categorical forecasts. Combination weights vary with the applied threshold and none of the tested individual forecasting models seem to provide more accurate predictions than the others for all values of $P_{th}$. According to the maximum values of HSS, a performance-based weights ...

  13. Disease-associated mutations that alter the RNA structural ensemble.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Halvorsen

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS often identify disease-associated mutations in intergenic and non-coding regions of the genome. Given the high percentage of the human genome that is transcribed, we postulate that for some observed associations the disease phenotype is caused by a structural rearrangement in a regulatory region of the RNA transcript. To identify such mutations, we have performed a genome-wide analysis of all known disease-associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs from the Human Gene Mutation Database (HGMD that map to the untranslated regions (UTRs of a gene. Rather than using minimum free energy approaches (e.g. mFold, we use a partition function calculation that takes into consideration the ensemble of possible RNA conformations for a given sequence. We identified in the human genome disease-associated SNPs that significantly alter the global conformation of the UTR to which they map. For six disease-states (Hyperferritinemia Cataract Syndrome, beta-Thalassemia, Cartilage-Hair Hypoplasia, Retinoblastoma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD, and Hypertension, we identified multiple SNPs in UTRs that alter the mRNA structural ensemble of the associated genes. Using a Boltzmann sampling procedure for sub-optimal RNA structures, we are able to characterize and visualize the nature of the conformational changes induced by the disease-associated mutations in the structural ensemble. We observe in several cases (specifically the 5' UTRs of FTL and RB1 SNP-induced conformational changes analogous to those observed in bacterial regulatory Riboswitches when specific ligands bind. We propose that the UTR and SNP combinations we identify constitute a "RiboSNitch," that is a regulatory RNA in which a specific SNP has a structural consequence that results in a disease phenotype. Our SNPfold algorithm can help identify RiboSNitches by leveraging GWAS data and an analysis of the mRNA structural ensemble.

  14. A multisite seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracken, Cameron; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Prairie, James

    2010-03-01

    We present a technique for providing seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasts at several locations simultaneously on a river network. The framework is an integration of two recent approaches: the nonparametric multimodel ensemble forecast technique and the nonparametric space-time disaggregation technique. The four main components of the proposed framework are as follows: (1) an index gauge streamflow is constructed as the sum of flows at all the desired spatial locations; (2) potential predictors of the spring season (April-July) streamflow at this index gauge are identified from the large-scale ocean-atmosphere-land system, including snow water equivalent; (3) the multimodel ensemble forecast approach is used to generate the ensemble flow forecast at the index gauge; and (4) the ensembles are disaggregated using a nonparametric space-time disaggregation technique resulting in forecast ensembles at the desired locations and for all the months within the season. We demonstrate the utility of this technique in skillful forecast of spring seasonal streamflows at four locations in the Upper Colorado River Basin at different lead times. Where applicable, we compare the forecasts to the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center's Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and the National Resource Conservation Service "coordinated" forecast, which is a combination of the ESP, Statistical Water Supply, a principal component regression technique, and modeler knowledge. We find that overall, the proposed method is equally skillful to existing operational models while tending to better predict wet years. The forecasts from this approach can be a valuable input for efficient planning and management of water resources in the basin.

  15. Neural Network Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter

    1990-01-01

    We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...... networks....

  16. Setup Analysis: Combining SMED with Other Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stadnicka Dorota

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to propose the methodology for the setup analysis, which can be implemented mainly in small and medium enterprises which are not convinced to implement the setups development. The methodology was developed after the research which determined the problem. Companies still have difficulties with a long setup time. Many of them do nothing to decrease this time. A long setup is not a sufficient reason for companies to undertake any actions towards the setup time reduction. To encourage companies to implement SMED it is essential to make some analyses of changeovers in order to discover problems. The methodology proposed can really encourage the management to take a decision about the SMED implementation, and that was verified in a production company. The setup analysis methodology is made up of seven steps. Four of them concern a setups analysis in a chosen area of a company, such as a work stand which is a bottleneck with many setups. The goal is to convince the management to begin actions concerning the setups improvement. The last three steps are related to a certain setup and, there, the goal is to reduce a setup time and the risk of problems which can appear during the setup. In this paper, the tools such as SMED, Pareto analysis, statistical analysis, FMEA and other were used.

  17. Combination of structural reliability and interval analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhiping Qiu; Di Yang; saac Elishakoff

    2008-01-01

    In engineering applications,probabilistic reliability theory appears to be presently the most important method,however,in many cases precise probabilistic reliability theory cannot be considered as adequate and credible model of the real state of actual affairs.In this paper,we developed a hybrid of probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability theory,which describes the structural uncertain parameters as interval variables when statistical data are found insufficient.By using the interval analysis,a new method for calculating the interval of the structural reliability as well as the reliability index is introduced in this paper,and the traditional probabilistic theory is incorporated with the interval analysis.Moreover,the new method preserves the useful part of the traditional probabilistic reliability theory,but removes the restriction of its strict requirement on data acquisition.Example is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed theory.

  18. Combining risk analysis and security testing

    OpenAIRE

    Großmann, Jürgen; SCHNEIDER, Martin; Viehmann, Johannes; Wendland, Marc-Florian

    2014-01-01

    A systematic integration of risk analysis and security testing allows for optimizing the test process as well as the risk assessment itself. The result of the risk assessment, i.e. the identified vulnerabilities, threat scenarios and unwanted incidents, can be used to guide the test identification and may complement requirements engineering results with systematic information concerning the threats and vulnerabilities of a system and their probabilities and consequences. This information can ...

  19. Ensemble Pulsar Time Scale

    CERN Document Server

    Rodin, Alexander E

    2010-01-01

    The algorithm of the ensemble pulsar time scale (PT$_{\\rm ens}$) based on the optimal Wiener filtration method has been proposed. This algorithm allows the separation of the contributions to the post-fit pulsar timing residuals of the atomic clock and pulsar itself. Filters were designed with the use of the cross-spectra of the timing residuals. The method has been applied to the timing data of six millisecond pulsars. Direct comparison with the classical method of the weighted average showed that use of the optimal Wiener filters before averaging allows noticeably to improve the fractional instability of the ensemble time scale. Application of the proposed method to the most stable millisecond pulsars with the fractional instability $\\sigma_z < 10^{-15}$ may improve the fractional instability of PT$_{\\rm ens}$ up to the level $\\sim 10^{-16}$.

  20. Ensemble Pulsar Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, D. S.; Gao, Y. P.; Zhao, S. H.

    2016-05-01

    Millisecond pulsars can generate another type of time scale that is totally independent of the atomic time scale, because the physical mechanisms of the pulsar time scale and the atomic time scale are quite different from each other. Usually the pulsar timing observational data are not evenly sampled, and the internals between data points range from several hours to more than half a month. What's more, these data sets are sparse. And all these make it difficult to generate an ensemble pulsar time scale. Hence, a new algorithm to calculate the ensemble pulsar time scale is proposed. Firstly, we use cubic spline interpolation to densify the data set, and make the intervals between data points even. Then, we employ the Vondrak filter to smooth the data set, and get rid of high-frequency noise, finally adopt the weighted average method to generate the ensemble pulsar time scale. The pulsar timing residuals represent clock difference between the pulsar time and atomic time, and the high precision pulsar timing data mean the clock difference measurement between the pulsar time and atomic time with a high signal to noise ratio, which is fundamental to generate pulsar time. We use the latest released NANOGRAV (North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves) 9-year data set to generate the ensemble pulsar time scale. This data set is from the newest NANOGRAV data release, which includes 9-year observational data of 37 millisecond pulsars using the 100-meter Green Bank telescope and 305-meter Arecibo telescope. We find that the algorithm used in this paper can lower the influence caused by noises in timing residuals, and improve long-term stability of pulsar time. Results show that the long-term (> 1 yr) frequency stability of the pulsar time is better than 3.4×10-15.

  1. A cost-minimization analysis of combination therapy in hypertension: fixed-dose vs extemporary combinations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Bellone

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease management and prevention represent the leading cost driver in Italian healthcare expenditure. In order to reach the target blood pressure, a large majority of patients require simultaneous administration of multiple antihypertensive agents.OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic impact of the use of fixed dose combinations of antihypertensive agents, compared to the extemporary combination of the same principles.METHODS: A cost minimization analysis was conducted to determine the pharmaceutical daily cost of five fixed dose combinations (olmesartan 20 mg + amlodipine 5 mg, perindopril 5 mg + amlodipine 5 mg, enalapril 20 mg + lercanidipine 10 mg, felodipine 5 mg + ramipril 5 mg, and delapril 30 mg + manidipine 10 mg compared with extemporary combination of the same principles in the perspective of the Italian NHS. Daily acquisition costs are estimated based on current Italian prices and tariffs.RESULTS: In three cases the use of fixed‑dose combination instead of extemporary combination induces a lower daily cost. Fixed combination treatment with delapril 30 mg + manidipine 10 mg induces greater cost savings for the National Health System (95,47 €/pts/year, as compared to free drugs combination therapy.CONCLUSIONS: Compared with free drug combinations, fixed‑dose combinations of antihypertensive agents are associated with lower daily National Health Service acquisition costs.http://dx.doi.org/10.7175/fe.v14i4.886

  2. Analysis of pattern forming instabilities in an ensemble of two-level atoms optically excited by counter-propagating fields

    CERN Document Server

    Firth, W J; Labeyrie, G; Camara, A; Gomes, P; Ackemann, T

    2016-01-01

    We explore various models for the pattern forming instability in a laser-driven cloud of cold two-level atoms with a plane feedback mirror. Focus is on the combined treatment of nonlinear propagation in a diffractively thick medium and the boundary condition given by feedback. The combined presence of purely transverse transmission gratings and reflection gratings on wavelength scale is addressed. Different truncation levels of the Fourier expansion of the dielectric susceptibility in terms of these gratings are discussed and compared to literature. A formalism to calculate the exact solution for the homogenous state in presence of absorption is presented. The relationship between the counterpropagating beam instability and the feedback instability is discussed. Feedback reduces the threshold by a factor of two under optimal conditions. Envelope curves which bound all possible threshold curves for varying mirror distances are calculated. The results are comparing well to experimental results regarding the obs...

  3. A cost-minimization analysis of combination therapy in hypertension: fixed-dose vs extemporary combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Bellone; Pierluigi Sbarra

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease management and prevention represent the leading cost driver in Italian healthcare expenditure. In order to reach the target blood pressure, a large majority of patients require simultaneous administration of multiple antihypertensive agents.OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic impact of the use of fixed dose combinations of antihypertensive agents, compared to the extemporary combination of the same principles.METHODS: A cost minimization analysis was conducted...

  4. Estimating combining ability in popcorn lines using multivariate analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Leandro Simôes Azeredo Gonçalves; Silverio de Paiva Freitas Júnior; Antônio Teixeira do Amaral Júnior; Carlos Alberto Scapim; Rosana Rodrigues; Caillet Dornelles Marinho; Eduardo Stefani Pagliosa

    2014-01-01

    Aiming to estimate the combining ability in tropical and temperate popcorn (Zea mays L. var. everta Sturt.) lines using multivariate analysis, ten popcorn lines were crossed in a complete diallel without reciprocals and the lines and hybrids were tested in two randomized complete block experiments with three replicates. Data were subjected to univariate and multivariate ANOVA, principal component analysis, and univariate and multivariate diallel analysis. For multivariate diallel analysis, va...

  5. Assessment of the EDA (Ensemble of data assimilation) technique as a tool for estimating the uncertainty of a prediction and the impact of observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megner, L.; Körnich, H.; Isaksen, L.; Tan, D.; Horanyi, A.

    2012-12-01

    A prediction increase significantly in value with knowledge of how certain it is, that is the size of its error. In weather forecasts it is often difficult to determine this error, even after the time of validity of the prediction, since the precise true state of the atmosphere remains unknown. For Ensemble Kalman filter methods the forecast spread of the ensemble can be used to estimate the uncertainty. However, most operational weather prediction systems today use the technique of variational data assimilation, which lacks a straight forward way to estimate the uncertainty. Lately the variational data assimilation and the ensemble prediction technique have been combined in the so-called EDA (ensemble of data assimilations) technique, to improve the prediction that the variational analysis can provide, and at the same time give an estimate of the uncertainty. The EDA technique consists of an ensemble of standard 4D-Var data assimilations, where the ensemble members have been randomly perturbed. The uncertainty can then be determined from the size of the ensemble spread, provided that there is a linear relationship between the magnitude of the perturbation and the resulting EDA spread. We show that such a linear relationship indeed exists and that the EDA technique can be scaled to provide a practical alternative to the traditional observing system experiment (OSE) technique, both for estimating the uncertainty of a prediction and a tool for assessing the impact of observations.

  6. Predictability of Regional Climate: A Bayesian Approach to Analysing a WRF Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruyere, C. L.; Mesquita, M. D. S.; Paimazumder, D.

    2013-12-01

    This study investigates aspects of climate predictability with a focus on climatic variables and different characteristics of extremes over nine North American climatic regions and two selected Atlantic sectors. An ensemble of state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations is used for the analysis. The ensemble is comprised of a combination of various physics schemes, initial conditions, domain sizes, boundary conditions and breeding techniques. The main objectives of this research are: 1) to increase our understanding of the ability of WRF to capture regional climate information - both at the individual and collective ensemble members, 2) to investigate the role of different members and their synergy in reproducing regional climate 3) to estimate the associated uncertainty. In this study, we propose a Bayesian framework to study the predictability of extremes and associated uncertainties in order to provide a wealth of knowledge about WRF reliability and provide further clarity and understanding of the sensitivities and optimal combinations. The choice of the Bayesian model, as opposed to standard methods, is made because: a) this method has a mean square error that is less than standard statistics, which makes it a more robust method; b) it allows for the use of small sample sizes, which are typical in high-resolution modeling; c) it provides a probabilistic view of uncertainty, which is useful when making decisions concerning ensemble members.

  7. Monitoring of Orientation in Molecular Ensembles by Polarization Sensitive Nonlinear Microscopy

    OpenAIRE

    Floc'h, Veronique Le; Brasselet, Sophie; Roch, Jean-Francois; Zyss, Joseph

    2003-01-01

    We present high resolution two-photon excitation microscopy studies combining two-photon fluorescence (TPF) and second harmonic generation (SHG) in order to probe orientational distributions of molecular ensembles at room temperature. A detailed polarization analysis of TPF and SHG signals is used in order to unravel the parameters of the molecular orientational statistical distribution, using a technique which can be extended and generalized to a broad variety of molecular arrangements. A po...

  8. Ensembles and their modules as objects of cartosemiotic inquiry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hansgeorg Schlichtmann

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The structured set of signs in a map face -- here called map-face aggregate or MFA -- and the associated marginal notes make up an ensemble of modules or components (modular ensemble. Such ensembles are recognized where groups of entries are intuitively viewed as complex units, which includes the case that entries are consulted jointly and thus are involved in the same process of sign reception. Modular ensembles are amenable to semiotic study, just as are written or pictorial stories. Four kinds (one of them mentioned above are discussed in detail, two involving single MFAs, the other two being assemblages of maps, such as atlases. In terms of their internal structure, two types are recognized: the combinate (or grouping, in which modules are directly linked by combinatorial relations (example above, and the cumulate (or collection (of documents, in which modules are indirectly related through some conceptual commonality (example: series of geological maps. The discussion then turns to basic points concerning modular ensembles (identification of a module, internal organization of an ensemble, and characteristics which establish an ensemble as a unit and further to a few general semiotic concepts as they relate to the present research. Since this paper originated as a reaction to several of A. Wolodtschenko’s recent publications, it concludes with comments on some of his arguments which pertain to modular ensembles.

  9. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative

  10. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon

    2016-06-14

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.

  11. Tibetan Song and Dance Ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1996-01-01

    THE chief members of the TibetanSong and Dance Ensemble areTibetan,but also include Hui,Lhoba and Monba artists.This ensemble mainly performs Tibetan traditional music,dance and Tibetan opera.Programs can be divided into three categories,folk,traditional palace and monastery styles.The program of this ensemble includes the Tibetan symphony instrumental the Tibetan symphony instrumental suite "Ceremony in the Snowy Region."the palace dance "Karer"passages of the traditional Tibetan

  12. Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven eMorrison

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor’s gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance, articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and nonmajors (N = 285 viewed sixteen 30-second performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble’s articulation, dynamics, technique and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble’s performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity.

  13. Development of an ensemble prediction system for ocean surface waves in a coastal area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, Arno

    2015-04-01

    An ensemble prediction system for ocean surface waves has been developed and applied on a local scale to the German Bight and the western Baltic Sea. U10-wind fields generated by the COSMO-DE-EPS upstream forecast chain of the German Met Service (DWD: Deutscher Wetterdienst) have been used as the driving force for the third-generation spectral wave model WAM. The atmospheric chain includes four different global models that provide boundary values for four regional COSMO-EU realisations. Each of those drive five COSMO-DE members, respectively, with different sets of physical parameterisations, so that finally 20 members are available to run 20 corresponding wave ensemble members of the coastal wave model CWAM (Coastal WAve Model) for the German Bight and the western Baltic Sea. It is the first time that in an ensemble prediction system for ocean waves, an atmospheric model of such a fine spatial resolution of 2.8 km has been combined with a wave model running on a model grid with a mesh size of 900 m only. Test runs with the wave ensemble prediction system have been executed for two entire months (April 2013 and June 2014) and for an 8-day storm case (Xaver) in December 2013 in order to check whether such a system could be a reasonable step to improve the future operational wave forecasts of the DWD. The results computed by the different wave model members agree fairly well with available buoy data. The differences between the results for the integrated wave parameters of the individual members are small only, but more pronounced in extreme storm situations. Finally, the statistical analysis of the comparisons with measurements show without exception slightly improved values for the ensemble mean of the wave ensemble members compared with the usual deterministic routine control run.

  14. Effect of lateral boundary perturbations on the breeding method and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter for mesoscale ensemble prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuo Saito

    2012-01-01

    forecasts from the LETKF analysis were improved and some of them became comparable to those of the mesoscale 4D-VAR analyses based on the JMA's operational data assimilation system. These results show the importance of LBPs in the MBD method and LETKF. LBPs are critical not only to ameliorate the underestimation of the ensemble spread in the ensemble forecast but also to produce better initial perturbations and to improve the LETKF analysis.

  15. Ensemble Data Assimilation: Algorithms and Software

    OpenAIRE

    Nerger, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Ensemble data assimilation is nowadays applied to various problems to estimate a model state and model parameters by combining the model predictions with observational data. At the Alfred Wegener Institute, the assimilation focuses on ocean-sea ice models and coupled ocean-biogeochemical models. The high dimension of realistic models requires particularly efficient algorithms that are also usable on supercomputers. For the application of such filters, the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework ...

  16. On a Combined Analysis Framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    窦瑞芳

    2015-01-01

    When people communicate,they do not only use language,that is,a single mode of communication,but also simultaneously use body languages,eye contacts,pictures,etc,which is called multimodal communication. The multimodal communication,as a matter of fact,is the most natural way of communication.Therefore,in order to make a complete discourse analysis,all the modes involved in an interaction or discourse should be taken into account and the new analysis framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis ought to be created to move forward such type of analysis.In this passage,the author makes a tentative move to shape a new analysis framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis.

  17. On a Combined Analysis Framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    窦瑞芳

    2015-01-01

    When people communicate,they do not only use language,that is,a single mode of communication,but also simultaneously use body languages,eye contacts,pictures,etc,which is called multimodal communication.The multimodal communication,as a matter of fact,is the most natural way of communication.Therefore,in order to make a complete discourse analysis,all the modes involved in an interaction or discourse should be taken into account and the new analysis framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis ought to be created to move forward such type of analysis.In this passage,the author makes a tentative move to shape a new analysis framework for Multimodal Discourse Analysis.

  18. An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Based on Ensemble Technique

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Yan; HUANG Cong-ming

    2006-01-01

    An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm based on ensemble technique is presented. The algorithm combines some previous best positions (pbest) of the particles to get an ensemble position (Epbest), which is used to replace the global best position (gbest). It is compared with the standard PSO algorithm invented by Kennedy and Eberhart and some improved PSO algorithms based on three different benchmark functions. The simulation results show that the improved PSO based on ensemble technique can get better solutions than the standard PSO and some other improved algorithms under all test cases.

  19. Deterministic entanglement of Rydberg ensembles by engineered dissipation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dasari, Durga; Mølmer, Klaus

    2014-01-01

    We propose a scheme that employs dissipation to deterministically generate entanglement in an ensemble of strongly interacting Rydberg atoms. With a combination of microwave driving between different Rydberg levels and a resonant laser coupling to a short lived atomic state, the ensemble can...... be driven towards a dark steady state that entangles all atoms. The long-range resonant dipole-dipole interaction between different Rydberg states extends the entanglement beyond the van der Walls interaction range with perspectives for entangling large and distant ensembles....

  20. Tests of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Zhiyong

    This dissertation examines the performance of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) implemented in a mesoscale model in increasingly realistic contexts from under a perfect model assumption and in the presence of significant model error with synthetic observations to real-world data assimilation in comparison to the three-dimensional variational (3DVar) method via both case study and month-long experiments. The EnKF is shown to be promising for future application in operational data assimilation practice. The EnKF with synthetic observations, which is implemented in the mesoscale model MM5, is very effective in keeping the analysis close to the truth under the perfect model assumption. The EnKF is most effective in reducing larger-scale errors but less effective in reducing errors at smaller, marginally resolvable scales. In the presence of significant model errors from physical parameterization schemes, the EnKF performs reasonably well though sometimes it can be significantly degraded compared to its performance under the perfect model assumption. Using a combination of different physical parameterization schemes in the ensemble (the so-called "multi-scheme" ensemble) can significantly improve filter performance due to the resulting better background error covariance and a smaller ensemble bias. The EnKF performs differently for different flow regimes possibly due to scale- and flow-dependent error growth dynamics and predictability. Real-data (including soundings, profilers and surface observations) are assimilated by directly comparing the EnKF and 3DVar and both are implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. A case study and month-long experiments show that the EnKF is efficient in tracking observations in terms of both prior forecast and posterior analysis. The EnKF performs consistently better than 3DVar for the time period of interest due to the benefit of the EnKF from both using ensemble mean for state estimation and using a flow

  1. Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bensema, Kevin; Gosink, Luke J.; Obermaier, Harald; Joy, Kenneth

    2016-10-01

    Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space. While this approach helps address conceptual and parametric uncertainties, the ensemble datasets produced by this technique present a special challenge to visualization researchers as the ensemble dataset records a distribution of possible values for each location in the domain. Contemporary visualization approaches that rely solely on summary statistics (e.g., mean and variance) cannot convey the detailed information encoded in ensemble distributions that are paramount to ensemble analysis; summary statistics provide no information about modality classification and modality persistence. To address this problem, we propose a novel technique that classifies high-variance locations based on the modality of the distribution of ensemble predictions. Additionally, we develop a set of confidence metrics to inform the end-user of the quality of fit between the distribution at a given location and its assigned class. We apply a similar method to time-varying ensembles to illustrate the relationship between peak variance and bimodal or multimodal behavior. These classification schemes enable a deeper understanding of the behavior of the ensemble members by distinguishing between distributions that can be described by a single tendency and distributions which reflect divergent trends in the ensemble.

  2. Combined multi-criteria and cost-benefit analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld

    1996-01-01

    The paper is an introduction to both theory and application of combined Cost-Benefit and Multi-Criteria Analysis. The first section is devoted to basic utility theory and its practical application in Cost-Benefit Analysis. Based on some of the problems encountered, arguments in favour of the appl......The paper is an introduction to both theory and application of combined Cost-Benefit and Multi-Criteria Analysis. The first section is devoted to basic utility theory and its practical application in Cost-Benefit Analysis. Based on some of the problems encountered, arguments in favour...... of the application of utility-based Multi-Criteria Analyses methods as an extension and refinement of the traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis are provided. The theory presented in this paper is closely related the methods used in the WARP software (Leleur & Jensen, 1989). The presentation is however wider in scope...

  3. PSO-Ensemble Demo Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2004-01-01

    Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output is...

  4. Representative Ensembles in Statistical Mechanics

    OpenAIRE

    V. I. YUKALOV

    2007-01-01

    The notion of representative statistical ensembles, correctly representing statistical systems, is strictly formulated. This notion allows for a proper description of statistical systems, avoiding inconsistencies in theory. As an illustration, a Bose-condensed system is considered. It is shown that a self-consistent treatment of the latter, using a representative ensemble, always yields a conserving and gapless theory.

  5. Statistical Mechanics of Linear and Nonlinear Time-Domain Ensemble Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Miyoshi, Seiji; Okada, Masato

    2006-01-01

    Conventional ensemble learning combines students in the space domain. In this paper, however, we combine students in the time domain and call it time-domain ensemble learning. We analyze, compare, and discuss the generalization performances regarding time-domain ensemble learning of both a linear model and a nonlinear model. Analyzing in the framework of online learning using a statistical mechanical method, we show the qualitatively different behaviors between the two models. In a linear mod...

  6. Enhancing Predictive Accuracy of Cardiac Autonomic Neuropathy Using Blood Biochemistry Features and Iterative Multitier Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abawajy, Jemal; Kelarev, Andrei; Chowdhury, Morshed U; Jelinek, Herbert F

    2016-01-01

    Blood biochemistry attributes form an important class of tests, routinely collected several times per year for many patients with diabetes. The objective of this study is to investigate the role of blood biochemistry for improving the predictive accuracy of the diagnosis of cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) progression. Blood biochemistry contributes to CAN, and so it is a causative factor that can provide additional power for the diagnosis of CAN especially in the absence of a complete set of Ewing tests. We introduce automated iterative multitier ensembles (AIME) and investigate their performance in comparison to base classifiers and standard ensemble classifiers for blood biochemistry attributes. AIME incorporate diverse ensembles into several tiers simultaneously and combine them into one automatically generated integrated system so that one ensemble acts as an integral part of another ensemble. We carried out extensive experimental analysis using large datasets from the diabetes screening research initiative (DiScRi) project. The results of our experiments show that several blood biochemistry attributes can be used to supplement the Ewing battery for the detection of CAN in situations where one or more of the Ewing tests cannot be completed because of the individual difficulties faced by each patient in performing the tests. The results show that AIME provide higher accuracy as a multitier CAN classification paradigm. The best predictive accuracy of 99.57% has been obtained by the AIME combining decorate on top tier with bagging on middle tier based on random forest. Practitioners can use these findings to increase the accuracy of CAN diagnosis.

  7. Optimizing matching and analysis combinations for estimating causal effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colson, K. Ellicott; Rudolph, Kara E.; Zimmerman, Scott C.; Goin, Dana E.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.; Laan, Mark Van Der; Ahern, Jennifer

    2016-03-01

    Matching methods are common in studies across many disciplines. However, there is limited evidence on how to optimally combine matching with subsequent analysis approaches to minimize bias and maximize efficiency for the quantity of interest. We conducted simulations to compare the performance of a wide variety of matching methods and analysis approaches in terms of bias, variance, and mean squared error (MSE). We then compared these approaches in an applied example of an employment training program. The results indicate that combining full matching with double robust analysis performed best in both the simulations and the applied example, particularly when combined with machine learning estimation methods. To reduce bias, current guidelines advise researchers to select the technique with the best post-matching covariate balance, but this work finds that such an approach does not always minimize mean squared error (MSE). These findings have important implications for future research utilizing matching. To minimize MSE, investigators should consider additional diagnostics, and use of simulations tailored to the study of interest to identify the optimal matching and analysis combination.

  8. Ensemble annealing of complex physical systems

    CERN Document Server

    Habeck, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Algorithms for simulating complex physical systems or solving difficult optimization problems often resort to an annealing process. Rather than simulating the system at the temperature of interest, an annealing algorithm starts at a temperature that is high enough to ensure ergodicity and gradually decreases it until the destination temperature is reached. This idea is used in popular algorithms such as parallel tempering and simulated annealing. A general problem with annealing methods is that they require a temperature schedule. Choosing well-balanced temperature schedules can be tedious and time-consuming. Imbalanced schedules can have a negative impact on the convergence, runtime and success of annealing algorithms. This article outlines a unifying framework, ensemble annealing, that combines ideas from simulated annealing, histogram reweighting and nested sampling with concepts in thermodynamic control. Ensemble annealing simultaneously simulates a physical system and estimates its density of states. The...

  9. Energy analysis handbook. CAC document 214. [Combining process analysis with input-output analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bullard, C. W.; Penner, P. S.; Pilati, D. A.

    1976-10-01

    Methods are presented for calculating the energy required, directly and indirectly, to produce all types of goods and services. Procedures for combining process analysis with input-output analysis are described. This enables the analyst to focus data acquisition cost-effectively, and to achieve a specified degree of accuracy in the results. The report presents sample calculations and provides the tables and charts needed to perform most energy cost calculations, including the cost of systems for producing or conserving energy.

  10. Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Large-scale Hydrological Model to Prepare an Ensemble-based SWOT-like Data Assimilation Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, C. M.; Biancamaria, S.; Boone, A. A.; Ricci, S. M.; Garambois, P. A.; Decharme, B.; Rochoux, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Land Surface Models (LSM) coupled with River Routing schemes (RRM), are used in Global Climate Models (GCM) to simulate the continental part of the water cycle. They are key component of GCM as they provide boundary conditions to atmospheric and oceanic models. However, at global scale, errors arise mainly from simplified physics, atmospheric forcing, and input parameters. More particularly, those used in RRM, such as river width, depth and friction coefficients, are difficult to calibrate and are mostly derived from geomorphologic relationships, which may not always be realistic. In situ measurements are then used to calibrate these relationships and validate the model, but global in situ data are very sparse. Additionally, due to the lack of existing global river geomorphology database and accurate forcing, models are run at coarse resolution. This is typically the case of the ISBA-TRIP model used in this study.A complementary alternative to in-situ data are satellite observations. In this regard, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission, jointly developed by NASA/CNES/CSA/UKSA and scheduled for launch around 2020, should be very valuable to calibrate RRM parameters. It will provide maps of water surface elevation for rivers wider than 100 meters over continental surfaces in between 78°S and 78°N and also direct observation of river geomorphological parameters such as width ans slope.Yet, before assimilating such kind of data, it is needed to analyze RRM temporal sensitivity to time-constant parameters. This study presents such analysis over large river basins for the TRIP RRM. Model output uncertainty, represented by unconditional variance, is decomposed into ordered contribution from each parameter. Doing a time-dependent analysis allows then to identify to which parameters modeled water level and discharge are the most sensitive along a hydrological year. The results show that local parameters directly impact water levels, while

  11. Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares -- First Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A. A.; Guerra, J. A.; Uritsky, V. M.

    2015-12-01

    We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). Using the probabilistic forecasts from three models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC) and the NOAA forecasts, we developed an ensemble forecast by linearly combining the flaring probabilities from all four methods. Performance-based combination weights were calculated using a Monte-Carlo-type algorithm that applies a decision threshold PthP_{th} to the combined probabilities and maximizing the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). Using the data for 13 recent solar active regions between years 2012 - 2014, we found that linear combination methods can improve the overall probabilistic prediction and improve the categorical prediction for certain values of decision thresholds. Combination weights vary with the applied threshold and none of the tested individual forecasting models seem to provide more accurate predictions than the others for all values of PthP_{th}. According to the maximum values of HSS, a performance-based weights calculated by averaging over the sample, performed similarly to a equally weighted model. The values PthP_{th} for which the ensemble forecast performs the best are 25 % for M-class flares and 15 % for X-class flares. When the human-adjusted probabilities from NOAA are excluded from the ensemble, the ensemble performance in terms of the Heidke score, is reduced.

  12. Construction of High-accuracy Ensemble of Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedieh Sajedi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There have been several methods developed to construct ensembles. Some of these methods, such as Bagging and Boosting are meta-learners, i.e. they can be applied to any base classifier. The combination of methods should be selected in order that classifiers cover each other weaknesses. In ensemble, the output of several classifiers is used only when they disagree on some inputs. The degree of disagreement is called diversity of the ensemble. Another factor that plays a significant role in performing an ensemble is accuracy of the basic classifiers. It can be said that all the procedures of constructing ensembles seek to achieve a balance between these two parameters, and successful methods can reach a better balance. The diversity of the members of an ensemble is known as an important factor in determining its generalization error. In this paper, we present a new approach for generating ensembles. The proposed approach uses Bagging and Boosting as the generators of base classifiers. Subsequently, the classifiers are partitioned by means of a clustering algorithm. We introduce a selection phase for construction the final ensemble and three different selection methods are proposed for applying in this phase. In the first proposed selection method, a classifier is selected randomly from each cluster. The second method selects the most accurate classifier from each cluster and the third one selects the nearest classifier to the center of each cluster to construct the final ensemble. The results of the experiments on well-known datasets demonstrate the strength of our proposed approach, especially applying the selection of the most accurate classifiers from clusters and employing Bagging generator.

  13. 集合预报产品综合分析显示平台关键技术与实现%Research and Implementation of Ensemble Forecast Product Analysis and Display Platform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于连庆; 李月安; 高嵩; 罗兵

    2015-01-01

    针对集合预报方法在天气预报业务中的应用,开发了具有自主知识产权的集合预报产品综合分析显示平台。以集合预报模式输出数据量大、气象图表显示效率和质量要求高两个主要需求为出发点,采用客户端服务器架构设计。服务器端将原始数据转换为产品数据以提高客户端执行效率。该文详细分析了平台关键技术,针对数据延时问题,轮询式数据处理技术实时检查原始数据变化状态并更新产品,采用生产者消费者互斥方法解决多线程锁死问题。为提高图表美观程度,动态页面布局显示技术对所有图形要素进行分类,并给出显示属性的抽象描述,结合图形渲染技术,实现了看图模式和出图模式的动态切换。该平台为预报员和服务决策者提供了宝贵的不确定性信息,在中小尺度极端天气预报、台风路径预报中发挥了重要作用。%In response to the impendent requirement of ensemble forecast applications in modern weather forecast operations,an ensemble forecast product analysis and display platform named NUMBERS (NUmerical Model Blending and Ensemble foRecast System)is developed.The application background,requirement analysis,design of system architecture and function implementation are discussed in details.In addition, some key technologies such as dynamic page layout rendering and data pooling,are also described. First of all,the ensemble forecast platform is designed using the client-server architecture.On the server side,there is a data processing program that converts large amounts of ensemble numerical model output into product data to ensure the performance of client data visualization program.On the client side, there is a data visualization program and a management console program.The data visualization program provides features including ensemble product data analysis,blending of multiple deterministic models

  14. Hybrid Intrusion Detection Using Ensemble of Classification Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Govindarajan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the major developments in machine learning in the past decade is the ensemble method, which finds highly accurate classifier by combining many moderately accurate component classifiers. In this research work, new ensemble classification methods are proposed for homogeneous ensemble classifiers using bagging and heterogeneous ensemble classifiers using arcing classifier and their performances are analyzed in terms of accuracy. A Classifier ensemble is designed using Radial Basis Function (RBF and Support Vector Machine (SVM as base classifiers. The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approaches are demonstrated by the means of real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection. The main originality of the proposed approach is based on three main parts: preprocessing phase, classification phase and combining phase. A wide range of comparative experiments are conducted for real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection. The accuracy of base classifiers is compared with homogeneous and heterogeneous models for data mining problem. The proposed ensemble methods provide significant improvement of accuracy compared to individual classifiers and also heterogeneous models exhibit better results than homogeneous models for real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection.

  15. The Ensembl gene annotation system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aken, Bronwen L; Ayling, Sarah; Barrell, Daniel; Clarke, Laura; Curwen, Valery; Fairley, Susan; Fernandez Banet, Julio; Billis, Konstantinos; García Girón, Carlos; Hourlier, Thibaut; Howe, Kevin; Kähäri, Andreas; Kokocinski, Felix; Martin, Fergal J; Murphy, Daniel N; Nag, Rishi; Ruffier, Magali; Schuster, Michael; Tang, Y Amy; Vogel, Jan-Hinnerk; White, Simon; Zadissa, Amonida; Flicek, Paul; Searle, Stephen M J

    2016-01-01

    The Ensembl gene annotation system has been used to annotate over 70 different vertebrate species across a wide range of genome projects. Furthermore, it generates the automatic alignment-based annotation for the human and mouse GENCODE gene sets. The system is based on the alignment of biological sequences, including cDNAs, proteins and RNA-seq reads, to the target genome in order to construct candidate transcript models. Careful assessment and filtering of these candidate transcripts ultimately leads to the final gene set, which is made available on the Ensembl website. Here, we describe the annotation process in detail.Database URL: http://www.ensembl.org/index.html. PMID:27337980

  16. Active Diverse Learning Neural Network Ensemble Approach for Power Transformer Fault Diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xu

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available An ensemble learning algorithm was proposed in this paper by analyzing the error function of neural network ensembles, by which, individual neural networks were actively guided to learn diversity. By decomposing the ensemble error function, error correlation terms were included in the learning criterion function of individual networks. And all the individual networks in the ensemble were leaded to learn diversity through cooperative training. The method was applied in Dissolved Gas Analysis based fault diagnosis of power transformer. Experiment results show that, the algorithm has higher accuracy than IEC method and BP network. In addition, the performance is more stable than conventional ensemble method, i.e., Bagging and Boosting.

  17. Selecting supplier combination based on fuzzy multicriteria analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Zhi-Qiu; Luo, Xin-Xing; Chen, Xiao-Hong; Yang, Wu-E.

    2015-07-01

    Existing multicriteria analysis (MCA) methods are probably ineffective in selecting a supplier combination. Thus, an MCA-based fuzzy 0-1 programming method is introduced. The programming relates to a simple MCA matrix that is used to select a single supplier. By solving the programming, the most feasible combination of suppliers is selected. Importantly, this result differs from selecting suppliers one by one according to a single-selection order, which is used to rank sole suppliers in existing MCA methods. An example highlights such difference and illustrates the proposed method.

  18. Competitive minimax universal decoding for several ensembles of random codes

    CERN Document Server

    Akirav, Yaniv

    2007-01-01

    Universally achievable error exponents pertaining to certain families of channels (most notably, discrete memoryless channels (DMC's)), and various ensembles of random codes, are studied by combining the competitive minimax approach, proposed by Feder and Merhav, with Chernoff bound and Gallager's techniques for the analysis of error exponents. In particular, we derive a single--letter expression for the largest, universally achievable fraction $\\xi$ of the optimum error exponent pertaining to the optimum ML decoding. Moreover, a simpler single--letter expression for a lower bound to $\\xi$ is presented. To demonstrate the tightness of this lower bound, we use it to show that $\\xi=1$, for the binary symmetric channel (BSC), when the random coding distribution is uniform over: (i) all codes (of a given rate), and (ii) all linear codes, in agreement with well--known results. We also show that $\\xi=1$ for the uniform ensemble of systematic linear codes, and for that of time--varying convolutional codes in the bit...

  19. The Use of Artificial-Intelligence-Based Ensembles for Intrusion Detection: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulshan Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In supervised learning-based classification, ensembles have been successfully employed to different application domains. In the literature, many researchers have proposed different ensembles by considering different combination methods, training datasets, base classifiers, and many other factors. Artificial-intelligence-(AI- based techniques play prominent role in development of ensemble for intrusion detection (ID and have many benefits over other techniques. However, there is no comprehensive review of ensembles in general and AI-based ensembles for ID to examine and understand their current research status to solve the ID problem. Here, an updated review of ensembles and their taxonomies has been presented in general. The paper also presents the updated review of various AI-based ensembles for ID (in particular during last decade. The related studies of AI-based ensembles are compared by set of evaluation metrics driven from (1 architecture & approach followed; (2 different methods utilized in different phases of ensemble learning; (3 other measures used to evaluate classification performance of the ensembles. The paper also provides the future directions of the research in this area. The paper will help the better understanding of different directions in which research of ensembles has been done in general and specifically: field of intrusion detection systems (IDSs.

  20. A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Thirel

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Ensemble streamflow forecast systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS. Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm

  1. Meta analysis a guide to calibrating and combining statistical evidence

    CERN Document Server

    Kulinskaya, Elena; Staudte, Robert G

    2008-01-01

    Meta Analysis: A Guide to Calibrating and Combining Statistical Evidence acts as a source of basic methods for scientists wanting to combine evidence from different experiments. The authors aim to promote a deeper understanding of the notion of statistical evidence.The book is comprised of two parts - The Handbook, and The Theory. The Handbook is a guide for combining and interpreting experimental evidence to solve standard statistical problems. This section allows someone with a rudimentary knowledge in general statistics to apply the methods. The Theory provides the motivation, theory and results of simulation experiments to justify the methodology.This is a coherent introduction to the statistical concepts required to understand the authors' thesis that evidence in a test statistic can often be calibrated when transformed to the right scale.

  2. Image Combination Analysis in SPECAN Algorithm of Spaceborne SAR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    臧铁飞; 李方慧; 龙腾

    2003-01-01

    An analysis of image combination in SPECAN algorithm is delivered in time-frequency domain in detail and a new image combination method is proposed. For four multi-looks processing one sub-aperture data in every three sub-apertures is processed in this combination method. The continual sub-aperture processing in SPECAN algorithm is realized and the processing efficiency can be dramatically increased. A new parameter is also put forward to measure the processing efficient of SAR image processing. Finally, the raw data of RADARSAT are used to test the method and the result proves that this method is feasible to be used in SPECAN algorithm of spaceborne SAR and can improve processing efficiently. SPECAN algorithm with this method can be used in quick-look imaging.

  3. Diurnal Ensemble Surface Meteorology Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Excel file containing diurnal ensemble statistics of 2-m temperature, 2-m mixing ratio and 10-m wind speed. This Excel file contains figures for Figure 2 in the...

  4. Exergy Analysis of Combined Cycle Power Plant: NTPC Dadri, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arvind Kumar Tiwari

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to exergy analysis of combined Brayton/Rankine power cycle of NTPC Dadri India. Theoretical exergy analysis is carried out for different components of dadri combined cycle power plant which consists of a gas turbine unit, heat recovery steam generator without extra fuel consumption and steam turbine unit. The results pinpoint that more exergy losses occurred in the gas turbine combustion chamber. Its reached 35% of the total exergy losses while the exergy losses in other plant components are between 7% -21% of the total exergy losses at 1400o C turbine inlet temperature and pressure ratio 10 .This paper also considered the effect of the pressure ratio, turbine inlet temperature, pressure drop in combustion chamber and heat recovery steam generator on the exergy losses in the plant, there are a clear effects in the exergy losses when changing pressure ratio, turbine inlet temperature.

  5. The entropy of network ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    Bianconi, Ginestra

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we generalize the concept of random networks to describe networks with non trivial features by a statistical mechanics approach. This framework is able to describe ensembles of undirected, directed as well as weighted networks. These networks might have not trivial community structure or, in the case of networks embedded in a given space, non trivial distance dependence of the link probability. These ensembles are characterized by their entropy which evaluate the cardinality of ...

  6. Similarity measures for protein ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of similarities and changes in protein conformation can provide important information regarding protein function and evolution. Many scores, including the commonly used root mean square deviation, have therefore been developed to quantify the similarities of different protein conformations...... a synthetic example from molecular dynamics simulations. We then apply the algorithms to revisit the problem of ensemble averaging during structure determination of proteins, and find that an ensemble refinement method is able to recover the correct distribution of conformations better than standard single...

  7. A new ensemble feature selection and its application to pattern classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dongbo ZHANG; Yaonan WANG

    2009-01-01

    Neural network ensemble based on rough sets reduct is proposed to decrease the computational complexity of conventional ensemble feature selection algorithm. First, a dynamic reduction technology combining genetic algorithm with resampling method is adopted to obtain reducts with good generalization ability. Second, Multiple BP neural networks based on different reducts are built as base classifiers. According to the idea of selective ensemble, the neural network ensemble with best generalization ability can be found by search strategies. Finally, classification based on neural network ensemble is implemented by combining the predictions of component networks with voting. The method has been verified in the experiment of remote sensing image and five UCI datasets classification. Compared with conventional ensemble feature selection algorithms, it costs less time and lower computing complexity, and the classification accuracy is satisfactory.

  8. Attenuation Analysis and Acoustic Pressure Levels for Combined Absorptive Mufflers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ovidiu Vasile

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the pressure-wave propagation in a muffler for an internal combustion engine in case of two combined mufflers geometry. The approach is generally applicable to analyzing the damping of propagation of harmonic pressure waves. The paper purpose is to show finite elements analysis of both inductive and resistive damping in pressure acoustics. The main output is the attenuation and acoustic pressure levels for the frequency range 50 Hz–3000 Hz.

  9. Exergy analysis for combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Zelong; Chen, Lingen; Sun, Fengrui [College of Naval Architecture and Power, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China)

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents the study of exergy analysis of combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles. The analytical formulae of exergy loss and exergy efficiency are derived. The largest exergy loss location is determined. By taking the maximum exergy efficiency as the objective, the choice of bottom cycle pressure ratio is optimized by detailed numerical examples, and the corresponding optimal exergy efficiency is obtained. The influences of various parameters on the exergy efficiency and other performances are analyzed by numerical calculations.

  10. Estimating combining ability in popcorn lines using multivariate analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro Simôes Azeredo Gonçalves

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Aiming to estimate the combining ability in tropical and temperate popcorn (Zea mays L. var. everta Sturt. lines using multivariate analysis, ten popcorn lines were crossed in a complete diallel without reciprocals and the lines and hybrids were tested in two randomized complete block experiments with three replicates. Data were subjected to univariate and multivariate ANOVA, principal component analysis, and univariate and multivariate diallel analysis. For multivariate diallel analysis, variables were divided into group I (grain yield, mean weight of ears with grains, popping expansion, mean number of ears per plant, and final stand and group II (days to silking, plant height, first ear height, and lodged or broken plants. The P2 line had positive values for agronomic traits related to yield and popping expansion for group I, whereas the P4 line had fewer days to silking and lodged or broken plants for group II. Regarding the hybrids, P2 x P7 exhibited favorable values for most of the analyzed variables and had potential for recommendation. The multivariate diallel analysis can be useful in popcorn genetic improvement programs, particularly when directed toward the best cross combinations, where the objective is to simultaneously obtain genetic gains in multiple traits.

  11. IDM-PhyChm-Ens: intelligent decision-making ensemble methodology for classification of human breast cancer using physicochemical properties of amino acids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Safdar; Majid, Abdul; Khan, Asifullah

    2014-04-01

    Development of an accurate and reliable intelligent decision-making method for the construction of cancer diagnosis system is one of the fast growing research areas of health sciences. Such decision-making system can provide adequate information for cancer diagnosis and drug discovery. Descriptors derived from physicochemical properties of protein sequences are very useful for classifying cancerous proteins. Recently, several interesting research studies have been reported on breast cancer classification. To this end, we propose the exploitation of the physicochemical properties of amino acids in protein primary sequences such as hydrophobicity (Hd) and hydrophilicity (Hb) for breast cancer classification. Hd and Hb properties of amino acids, in recent literature, are reported to be quite effective in characterizing the constituent amino acids and are used to study protein foldings, interactions, structures, and sequence-order effects. Especially, using these physicochemical properties, we observed that proline, serine, tyrosine, cysteine, arginine, and asparagine amino acids offer high discrimination between cancerous and healthy proteins. In addition, unlike traditional ensemble classification approaches, the proposed 'IDM-PhyChm-Ens' method was developed by combining the decision spaces of a specific classifier trained on different feature spaces. The different feature spaces used were amino acid composition, split amino acid composition, and pseudo amino acid composition. Consequently, we have exploited different feature spaces using Hd and Hb properties of amino acids to develop an accurate method for classification of cancerous protein sequences. We developed ensemble classifiers using diverse learning algorithms such as random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) trained on different feature spaces. We observed that ensemble-RF, in case of cancer classification, performed better than ensemble-SVM and ensemble-KNN. Our

  12. Deformed Ginibre ensembles and integrable systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orlov, A.Yu., E-mail: orlovs@ocean.ru

    2014-01-17

    We consider three Ginibre ensembles (real, complex and quaternion-real) with deformed measures and relate them to known integrable systems by presenting partition functions of these ensembles in form of fermionic expectation values. We also introduce double deformed Dyson–Wigner ensembles and compare their fermionic representations with those of Ginibre ensembles.

  13. Ensemble-based analysis of Front Range severe convection on 6-7 June 2012: Forecast uncertainty and communication of weather information to Front Range decision-makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincente, Vanessa

    The variation of topography in Colorado not only adds to the beauty of its landscape, but also tests our ability to predict warm season severe convection. Deficient radar coverage and limited observations make quantitative precipitation forecasting quite a challenge. Past studies have suggested that greater forecast skill of mesoscale convection initiation and precipitation characteristics are achievable considering an ensemble with explicitly predicted convection compared to one that has parameterized convection. The range of uncertainty and probabilities in these forecasts can help forecasters in their precipitation predictions and communication of weather information to emergency managers (EMs). EMs serve an integral role in informing and protecting communities in anticipation of hazardous weather. An example of such an event occurred on the evening of 6 June 2012, where areas to the lee of the Rocky Mountain Front Range were impacted by flash-flood-producing severe convection that included heavy rain and copious amounts of hail. Despite the discrepancy in the timing, location and evolution of convection, the convection-allowing ensemble forecasts generally outperformed those of the convection-parameterized ensemble in representing the mesoscale processes responsible for the 6-7 June severe convective event. Key features sufficiently reproduced by several of the convection-allowing ensemble members resembled the observations: 1) general location of a convergence boundary east of Denver, 2) convective initiation along the boundary, 3) general location of a weak cold front near the Wyoming/Nebraska border, and 4) cold pools and moist upslope characteristics that contributed to the backbuilding of convection. Members from the convection-parameterized ensemble that failed to reproduce these results displaced the convergence boundary, produced a cold front that moved southeast too quickly, and used the cold front for convective initiation. The convection

  14. Combined cardiotocographic and ST event analysis: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amer-Wahlin, Isis; Kwee, Anneke

    2016-01-01

    ST-analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram (ECG) (STAN(®)) combined with cardiotocography (CTG) for intrapartum fetal monitoring has been developed following many years of animal research. Changes in the ST-segment of the fetal ECG correlated with fetal hypoxia occurring during labor. In 1993 the first randomized controlled trial (RCT), comparing CTG with CTG + ST-analysis was published. STAN(®) was introduced for daily practice in 2000. To date, six RCTs have been performed, out of which five have been published. Furthermore, there are six published meta-analyses. The meta-analyses showed that CTG + ST-analysis reduced the risks of vaginal operative delivery by about 10% and fetal blood sampling by 40%. There are conflicting results regarding the effect on metabolic acidosis, much because of controveries about which RCTs should be included in a meta-analysis, and because of differences in methodology, execution and quality of the meta-analyses. Several cohort studies have been published, some showing significant decrease of metabolic acidosis after the introduction of ST-analysis. In this review, we discuss not only the scientific evidence from the RCTs and meta-analyses, but also the limitations of these studies. In conclusion, ST-analysis is effective in reducing operative vaginal deliveries and fetal blood sampling but the effect on neonatal metabolic acidosis is still under debate. Further research is needed to determine the place of ST-analysis in the labor ward for daily practice. PMID:26206514

  15. Combined cardiotocographic and ST event analysis: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amer-Wahlin, Isis; Kwee, Anneke

    2016-01-01

    ST-analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram (ECG) (STAN(®)) combined with cardiotocography (CTG) for intrapartum fetal monitoring has been developed following many years of animal research. Changes in the ST-segment of the fetal ECG correlated with fetal hypoxia occurring during labor. In 1993 the first randomized controlled trial (RCT), comparing CTG with CTG + ST-analysis was published. STAN(®) was introduced for daily practice in 2000. To date, six RCTs have been performed, out of which five have been published. Furthermore, there are six published meta-analyses. The meta-analyses showed that CTG + ST-analysis reduced the risks of vaginal operative delivery by about 10% and fetal blood sampling by 40%. There are conflicting results regarding the effect on metabolic acidosis, much because of controveries about which RCTs should be included in a meta-analysis, and because of differences in methodology, execution and quality of the meta-analyses. Several cohort studies have been published, some showing significant decrease of metabolic acidosis after the introduction of ST-analysis. In this review, we discuss not only the scientific evidence from the RCTs and meta-analyses, but also the limitations of these studies. In conclusion, ST-analysis is effective in reducing operative vaginal deliveries and fetal blood sampling but the effect on neonatal metabolic acidosis is still under debate. Further research is needed to determine the place of ST-analysis in the labor ward for daily practice.

  16. Evolutionary Ensemble for In Silico Prediction of Ames Test Mutagenicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huanhuan; Yao, Xin

    Driven by new regulations and animal welfare, the need to develop in silico models has increased recently as alternative approaches to safety assessment of chemicals without animal testing. This paper describes a novel machine learning ensemble approach to building an in silico model for the prediction of the Ames test mutagenicity, one of a battery of the most commonly used experimental in vitro and in vivo genotoxicity tests for safety evaluation of chemicals. Evolutionary random neural ensemble with negative correlation learning (ERNE) [1] was developed based on neural networks and evolutionary algorithms. ERNE combines the method of bootstrap sampling on training data with the method of random subspace feature selection to ensure diversity in creating individuals within an initial ensemble. Furthermore, while evolving individuals within the ensemble, it makes use of the negative correlation learning, enabling individual NNs to be trained as accurate as possible while still manage to maintain them as diverse as possible. Therefore, the resulting individuals in the final ensemble are capable of cooperating collectively to achieve better generalization of prediction. The empirical experiment suggest that ERNE is an effective ensemble approach for predicting the Ames test mutagenicity of chemicals.

  17. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  18. A Combined Metabolomic and Proteomic Analysis of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Hajduk

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this pilot study was to apply a novel combined metabolomic and proteomic approach in analysis of gestational diabetes mellitus. The investigation was performed with plasma samples derived from pregnant women with diagnosed gestational diabetes mellitus (n = 18 and a matched control group (n = 13. The mass spectrometry-based analyses allowed to determine 42 free amino acids and low molecular-weight peptide profiles. Different expressions of several peptides and altered amino acid profiles were observed in the analyzed groups. The combination of proteomic and metabolomic data allowed obtaining the model with a high discriminatory power, where amino acids ethanolamine, l-citrulline, l-asparagine, and peptide ions with m/z 1488.59; 4111.89 and 2913.15 had the highest contribution to the model. The sensitivity (94.44% and specificity (84.62%, as well as the total group membership classification value (90.32% calculated from the post hoc classification matrix of a joint model were the highest when compared with a single analysis of either amino acid levels or peptide ion intensities. The obtained results indicated a high potential of integration of proteomic and metabolomics analysis regardless the sample size. This promising approach together with clinical evaluation of the subjects can also be used in the study of other diseases.

  19. A Combined Metabolomic and Proteomic Analysis of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajduk, Joanna; Klupczynska, Agnieszka; Dereziński, Paweł; Matysiak, Jan; Kokot, Piotr; Nowak, Dorota M; Gajęcka, Marzena; Nowak-Markwitz, Ewa; Kokot, Zenon J

    2015-12-16

    The aim of this pilot study was to apply a novel combined metabolomic and proteomic approach in analysis of gestational diabetes mellitus. The investigation was performed with plasma samples derived from pregnant women with diagnosed gestational diabetes mellitus (n = 18) and a matched control group (n = 13). The mass spectrometry-based analyses allowed to determine 42 free amino acids and low molecular-weight peptide profiles. Different expressions of several peptides and altered amino acid profiles were observed in the analyzed groups. The combination of proteomic and metabolomic data allowed obtaining the model with a high discriminatory power, where amino acids ethanolamine, L-citrulline, L-asparagine, and peptide ions with m/z 1488.59; 4111.89 and 2913.15 had the highest contribution to the model. The sensitivity (94.44%) and specificity (84.62%), as well as the total group membership classification value (90.32%) calculated from the post hoc classification matrix of a joint model were the highest when compared with a single analysis of either amino acid levels or peptide ion intensities. The obtained results indicated a high potential of integration of proteomic and metabolomics analysis regardless the sample size. This promising approach together with clinical evaluation of the subjects can also be used in the study of other diseases.

  20. Technical and financial analysis of combined cycle gas turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khan Arshad Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents technical and financial models which were developed in this study to predict the overall performance of combined cycle gas turbine plant in line with the needs of independent power producers in the liberalized market of power sector. Three similar sizes of combined cycle gas turbine power projects up to 200 Megawatt of independent power producers in Pakistan were selected in-order to develop and drive the basic assumptions for the inputs of the models in view of prevailing Government of Pakistan’s two components of electricity purchasing tariff that is energy purchase price and capacity purchase price at higher voltage grid station terminal from independent power producers. The levelized electricity purchasing tariff over life of plant on gaseous fuel at 60 percent plant load factor was 6.47 cent per kilowatt hour with energy purchase price and capacity purchase prices of 3.54 and 2.93 cents per kilowatt hour respectively. The outcome of technical models of gas turbine, steam turbine and combined cycle gas turbine power were found in close agreement with the projects under consideration and provides opportunity of evaluation of technical and financial aspects of combined cycle power plant in a more simplified manner with relatively accurate results. At 105 Celsius exit temperature of heat recovery steam generator flue gases the net efficiency of combined cycle gas turbine was 48.8 percent whereas at 125 Celsius exit temperature of heat recovery steam generator flue gases it was 48.0 percent. Sensitivity analysis of selected influential components of electricity tariff was also carried out.

  1. The bivariate combined model for spatial data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neyens, Thomas; Lawson, Andrew B; Kirby, Russell S; Faes, Christel

    2016-08-15

    To describe the spatial distribution of diseases, a number of methods have been proposed to model relative risks within areas. Most models use Bayesian hierarchical methods, in which one models both spatially structured and unstructured extra-Poisson variance present in the data. For modelling a single disease, the conditional autoregressive (CAR) convolution model has been very popular. More recently, a combined model was proposed that 'combines' ideas from the CAR convolution model and the well-known Poisson-gamma model. The combined model was shown to be a good alternative to the CAR convolution model when there was a large amount of uncorrelated extra-variance in the data. Less solutions exist for modelling two diseases simultaneously or modelling a disease in two sub-populations simultaneously. Furthermore, existing models are typically based on the CAR convolution model. In this paper, a bivariate version of the combined model is proposed in which the unstructured heterogeneity term is split up into terms that are shared and terms that are specific to the disease or subpopulation, while spatial dependency is introduced via a univariate or multivariate Markov random field. The proposed method is illustrated by analysis of disease data in Georgia (USA) and Limburg (Belgium) and in a simulation study. We conclude that the bivariate combined model constitutes an interesting model when two diseases are possibly correlated. As the choice of the preferred model differs between data sets, we suggest to use the new and existing modelling approaches together and to choose the best model via goodness-of-fit statistics. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26928309

  2. Estimating preselected and postselected ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massar, Serge [Laboratoire d' Information Quantique, C.P. 225, Universite libre de Bruxelles (U.L.B.), Av. F. D. Rooselvelt 50, B-1050 Bruxelles (Belgium); Popescu, Sandu [H. H. Wills Physics Laboratory, University of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TL (United Kingdom); Hewlett-Packard Laboratories, Stoke Gifford, Bristol BS12 6QZ (United Kingdom)

    2011-11-15

    In analogy with the usual quantum state-estimation problem, we introduce the problem of state estimation for a pre- and postselected ensemble. The problem has fundamental physical significance since, as argued by Y. Aharonov and collaborators, pre- and postselected ensembles are the most basic quantum ensembles. Two new features are shown to appear: (1) information is flowing to the measuring device both from the past and from the future; (2) because of the postselection, certain measurement outcomes can be forced never to occur. Due to these features, state estimation in such ensembles is dramatically different from the case of ordinary, preselected-only ensembles. We develop a general theoretical framework for studying this problem and illustrate it through several examples. We also prove general theorems establishing that information flowing from the future is closely related to, and in some cases equivalent to, the complex conjugate information flowing from the past. Finally, we illustrate our approach on examples involving covariant measurements on spin-1/2 particles. We emphasize that all state-estimation problems can be extended to the pre- and postselected situation. The present work thus lays the foundations of a much more general theory of quantum state estimation.

  3. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  4. Quantifying Monte Carlo uncertainty in ensemble Kalman filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thulin, Kristian; Naevdal, Geir; Skaug, Hans Julius; Aanonsen, Sigurd Ivar

    2009-01-15

    This report is presenting results obtained during Kristian Thulin PhD study, and is a slightly modified form of a paper submitted to SPE Journal. Kristian Thulin did most of his portion of the work while being a PhD student at CIPR, University of Bergen. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is currently considered one of the most promising methods for conditioning reservoir simulation models to production data. The EnKF is a sequential Monte Carlo method based on a low rank approximation of the system covariance matrix. The posterior probability distribution of model variables may be estimated fram the updated ensemble, but because of the low rank covariance approximation, the updated ensemble members become correlated samples from the posterior distribution. We suggest using multiple EnKF runs, each with smaller ensemble size to obtain truly independent samples from the posterior distribution. This allows a point-wise confidence interval for the posterior cumulative distribution function (CDF) to be constructed. We present a methodology for finding an optimal combination of ensemble batch size (n) and number of EnKF runs (m) while keeping the total number of ensemble members ( m x n) constant. The optimal combination of n and m is found through minimizing the integrated mean square error (MSE) for the CDFs and we choose to define an EnKF run with 10.000 ensemble members as having zero Monte Carlo error. The methodology is tested on a simplistic, synthetic 2D model, but should be applicable also to larger, more realistic models. (author). 12 refs., figs.,tabs

  5. BagMOOV: A novel ensemble for heart disease prediction bootstrap aggregation with multi-objective optimized voting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashir, Saba; Qamar, Usman; Khan, Farhan Hassan

    2015-06-01

    Conventional clinical decision support systems are based on individual classifiers or simple combination of these classifiers which tend to show moderate performance. This research paper presents a novel classifier ensemble framework based on enhanced bagging approach with multi-objective weighted voting scheme for prediction and analysis of heart disease. The proposed model overcomes the limitations of conventional performance by utilizing an ensemble of five heterogeneous classifiers: Naïve Bayes, linear regression, quadratic discriminant analysis, instance based learner and support vector machines. Five different datasets are used for experimentation, evaluation and validation. The datasets are obtained from publicly available data repositories. Effectiveness of the proposed ensemble is investigated by comparison of results with several classifiers. Prediction results of the proposed ensemble model are assessed by ten fold cross validation and ANOVA statistics. The experimental evaluation shows that the proposed framework deals with all type of attributes and achieved high diagnosis accuracy of 84.16 %, 93.29 % sensitivity, 96.70 % specificity, and 82.15 % f-measure. The f-ratio higher than f-critical and p value less than 0.05 for 95 % confidence interval indicate that the results are extremely statistically significant for most of the datasets. PMID:25750025

  6. Combining OLAP and data mining for analysis on trainee dataset

    OpenAIRE

    Borokshinova, Anastasia

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to show the possibility of combining two data analyses techniques OLAP and data mining in a certain area. The principal method of achieving the aim will be continuous comparison and check of acquired results using two techniques. A practise dataset on credits provided to physical persons is used for practical application. The data analysis will be performed using Power Pivot MS Excel complement and LISp-Miner system. For work with LISp-System the 4ft Miner procedure ...

  7. The Split-Apply-Combine Strategy for Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadley Wickham

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Many data analysis problems involve the application of a split-apply-combine strategy, where you break up a big problem into manageable pieces, operate on each piece independently and then put all the pieces back together. This insight gives rise to a new R package that allows you to smoothly apply this strategy, without having to worry about the type of structure in which your data is stored.The paper includes two case studies showing how these insights make it easier to work with batting records for veteran baseball players and a large 3d array of spatio-temporal ozone measurements.

  8. Exergy analysis for combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zelong Zhang, Lingen Chen, Fengrui Sun

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the study of exergy analysis of combined regenerative Brayton and inverse Brayton cycles. The analytical formulae of exergy loss and exergy efficiency are derived. The largest exergy loss location is determined. By taking the maximum exergy efficiency as the objective, the choice of bottom cycle pressure ratio is optimized by detailed numerical examples, and the corresponding optimal exergy efficiency is obtained. The influences of various parameters on the exergy efficiency and other performances are analyzed by numerical calculations.

  9. A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Thirel

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Such systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS. Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm Rate, etc., especially

  10. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  11. Combination of emanation thermal analysis with evolved gas analysis and differential thermal analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Interpretation of the results of emanation thermal analysis was obtained by combination with other thermoanalytical methods: a combination of ETA, EGA and DTA used with samples of CaCO3 and Ca(COO)2. H2O is given as an example. The samples were labelled with 228Th, the parent nuclide of 220Rn, the release of which was measured. Into the samples of CaCO3 the parent nuclide was introduced by impregnation, an alcoholic solution of 228Th and 224Rn in radioactive equilibrium being used. The samples of Ca(COO)2.H2O were labelled in the bulk by coprecipitation, 228Th and 224Ra being added to the initial calcium nitrate solution. (T.I.)

  12. Ensemble Equivalence for Distinguishable Particles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Fernández-Peralta

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Statistics of distinguishable particles has become relevant in systems of colloidal particles and in the context of applications of statistical mechanics to complex networks. In this paper, we present evidence that a commonly used expression for the partition function of a system of distinguishable particles leads to huge fluctuations of the number of particles in the grand canonical ensemble and, consequently, to nonequivalence of statistical ensembles. We will show that the alternative definition of the partition function including, naturally, Boltzmann’s correct counting factor for distinguishable particles solves the problem and restores ensemble equivalence. Finally, we also show that this choice for the partition function does not produce any inconsistency for a system of distinguishable localized particles, where the monoparticular partition function is not extensive.

  13. Excitation energies from ensemble DFT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgoo, Alex; Teale, Andy M.; Helgaker, Trygve

    2015-12-01

    We study the evaluation of the Gross-Oliveira-Kohn expression for excitation energies E1-E0=ɛ1-ɛ0+∂E/xc,w[ρ] ∂w | ρ =ρ0. This expression gives the difference between an excitation energy E1 - E0 and the corresponding Kohn-Sham orbital energy difference ɛ1 - ɛ0 as a partial derivative of the exchange-correlation energy of an ensemble of states Exc,w[ρ]. Through Lieb maximisation, on input full-CI density functions, the exchange-correlation energy is evaluated accurately and the partial derivative is evaluated numerically using finite difference. The equality is studied numerically for different geometries of the H2 molecule and different ensemble weights. We explore the adiabatic connection for the ensemble exchange-correlation energy. The latter may prove useful when modelling the unknown weight dependence of the exchange-correlation energy.

  14. Learning Outlier Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Micenková, Barbora; McWilliams, Brian; Assent, Ira

    into the existing unsupervised algorithms. In this paper, we show how to use powerful machine learning approaches to combine labeled examples together with arbitrary unsupervised outlier scoring algorithms. We aim to get the best out of the two worlds—supervised and unsupervised. Our approach is also a viable...

  15. Ensemble segmentation for GBM brain tumors on MR images using confidence-based averaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huo, J.; Okada, K.; Rikxoort, E.M. van; Kim, H.J.; Alger, J.R.; Pope, W.B.; Goldin, J.G.; Brown, M.S.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Ensemble segmentation methods combine the segmentation results of individual methods into a final one, with the goal of achieving greater robustness and accuracy. The goal of this study was to develop an ensemble segmentation framework for glioblastoma multiforme tumors on single-channel T1

  16. Hydrogen adsorption on bimetallic PdAu(111) surface alloys:minimum adsorption ensemble, ligand and ensemble effects, and ensemble confinement

    OpenAIRE

    Takehiro, Naoki; Liu, Ping; Bergbreiter, Andreas; K. Nørskov, Jens; Behm, R. Juergen

    2014-01-01

    The adsorption of hydrogen on structurally well defined PdAu-Pd(111) monolayer surface alloys was investigated in a combined experimental and theoretical study, aiming at a quantitative understanding of the adsorption and desorption properties of individual PdAu nanostructures. Combining the structural information obtained by high resolution scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), in particular on the abundance of specific adsorption ensembles at different Pd surface concentrations, with informa...

  17. Analysis methodology and recent results of the IGS network combination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferland, R.; Kouba, J.; Hutchison, D.

    2000-11-01

    A working group of the International GPS Service (IGS) was created to look after Reference Frame (RF) issues and contribute to the densification and improvement of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). One important objective of the Reference Frame Working Group is to generate consistent IGS station coordinates and velocities, Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP) and geocenter estimates along with the appropriate covariance information. These parameters have a direct impact on other IGS products such as the estimation of GPS satellite ephemerides, as well as satellite and station clocks. The information required is available weekly from the Analysis Centers (AC) (cod, emr, esa, gfz, jpl, ngs, sio) and from the Global Network Associate Analysis Centers (GNAAC) (JPL, mit, ncl) using a "Software Independent Exchange Format" (SINEX). The AC are also contributing daily ERPs as part of their weekly submission. The procedure in place simultaneously combines the weekly station coordinates, geocenter and daily ERP estimates. A cumulative solution containing station coordinates and velocity is also updated with each weekly combination. This provides a convenient way to closely monitor the quality of the estimated station coordinates and to have an up to date cumulative solution available at all times. To provide some necessary redundancy, the weekly station coordinates solution is compared against the GNAAC solutions. Each of the 3 GNAAC uses its own software, allowing independent verification of the combination process. The RMS of the coordinate differences in the north, east and up components between the AC/GNAAC and the ITRF97 Reference Frame Stations are 4-10 mm, 5-20 mm and 6-25 mm. The station velocities within continental plates are compared to the NNR-NUVEL1A plate motion model (DeMets et al., 1994). The north, east and up velocity RMS are 2 mm/y, 3 mm/y and 8 mm/y. Note that NNR-NUVEL1A assumes a zero vertical velocity.

  18. Thermoeconomic Analysis of Advanced Solar-Fossil Combined Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yassine Allani

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available

    Hybrid solar thermal power plants (with parabolic trough type of solar collectors featuring gas burners and Rankine steam cycles have been successfully demonstrated by California's Solar Electric Generating System (SEGS. This system has been proven to be one of the most efficient and economical schemes to convert solar energy into electricity. Recent technological progress opens interesting prospects for advanced cycle concepts: a the ISCCS (Integrated Solar Combined Cycle System that integrates the parabolic trough into a fossil fired combined cycle, which allows a larger exergy potential of the fuel to be converted. b the HSTS (Hybrid Solar Tower System which uses high concentration optics (via a power tower generator and high temperature air receivers to drive the combined cycle power plant. In the latter case, solar energy is used at a higher exergy level as a heat source of the topping cycle. This paper presents the results of a thermoeconomic investigation of an ISCCS envisaged in Tunisia. The study is realized in two phases. In the first phase, a mixed approach, based on pinch technology principles coupled with a mathematical optimization algorithm, is used to minimize the heat transfer exergy losses in the steam generators, respecting the off design operating conditions of the steam turbine (cone law. In the second phase, an economic analysis based on the Levelized Electricity Cost (LEC approach was carried out for the configurations, which provided the best concepts during the first phase. A comparison of ISCCS with pure fossil fueled plants (CC+GT is reported for the same electrical power load. A sensitivity analysis based on the relative size of the solar field is presented.

    •  This paper was presented at the ECOS'00 Conference in Enschede, July 5-7, 2000

  19. Ensemble teleportation under suboptimal conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The possibility of teleportation is certainly the most interesting consequence of quantum non-separability. In the present paper, the feasibility of teleportation is examined on the basis of the rigorous ensemble interpretation of quantum mechanics if non-ideal constraints are imposed on the teleportation scheme. Importance is attached both to the case of noisy Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) ensembles and to the conditions under which automatic teleportation is still possible. The success of teleportation is discussed using a new fidelity measure which avoids the weaknesses of previous proposals

  20. The Partition Ensemble Fallacy Fallacy

    CERN Document Server

    Nemoto, K; Nemoto, Kae; Braunstein, Samuel L.

    2002-01-01

    The Partition Ensemble Fallacy was recently applied to claim no quantum coherence exists in coherent states produced by lasers. We show that this claim relies on an untestable belief of a particular prior distribution of absolute phase. One's choice for the prior distribution for an unobservable quantity is a matter of `religion'. We call this principle the Partition Ensemble Fallacy Fallacy. Further, we show an alternative approach to construct a relative-quantity Hilbert subspace where unobservability of certain quantities is guaranteed by global conservation laws. This approach is applied to coherent states and constructs an approximate relative-phase Hilbert subspace.

  1. Regional interdependency of precipitation indices across Denmark in two ensembles of high-resolution RCMs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    2013-01-01

    all these methods is that the climate models are independent. This study addresses the validity of this assumption for two ensembles of regional climate models (RCMs) from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project based on the land cells covering Denmark....... Daily precipitation indices from an ensemble of RCMs driven by the 40-yrECMWFRe-Analysis (ERA-40) and an ensemble of the same RCMs driven by different general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed. Two different methods are used to estimate the amount of independent information in the ensembles....... These are based on different statistical properties of a measure of climate model error. Additionally, a hierarchical cluster analysis is carried out. Regardless of the method used, the effective number of RCMs is smaller than the total number of RCMs. The estimated effective number of RCMs varies depending...

  2. Evaluating hydrological ensemble predictions using a large and varied set of catchments (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, M.; Andreassian, V.; Perrin, C.; Loumagne, C.

    2010-12-01

    It is widely accepted that local and national operational early warning systems can play a key role in mitigating flood damage and losses to society while improving risk awareness and flood preparedness. Over the last years, special attention has been paid to efficiently couple meteorological and hydrological warning systems to track uncertainty and achieve longer lead times in hydrological forecasting. Several national and international scientific programs have focused on the pre-operational test and development of ensemble hydrological forecasting. Based on the lumped soil-moisture-accounting type rainfall-runoff model GRP, developed at Cemagref, we have set up a research tool for ensemble forecasting and conducted several studies to evaluate the quality of streamflow forecasts. The model has been driven by available archives of weather ensemble prediction systems from different sources (Météo-France, ECMWF, TIGGE archive). Our approach has sought to combine overall validation under varied geographical and climate conditions (to assess model robustness and generality) and site-specific validation (to locally accept or reject the hydrologic forecast system and contribute to defining its limits of applicability). The general aim is to contribute to methodological developments concerning a wide range of key aspects in hydrological forecasting, including: the links between predictability skill and catchment characteristics, the magnitude and the distribution of forecasting errors, the analysis of nested or neighbouring catchments for prediction in ungauged basins, as well as the reliability of model predictions when forecasting under conditions not previously encountered during the period of setup and calibration of the system. This presentation will cover the aforementioned topics and present examples from studies carried out to evaluate and inter-compare ensemble forecasting systems using a large and varied set of catchments in France. The specific need to

  3. Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallach, Daniel; Mearns, Linda O.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold

    2016-01-01

    Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.

  4. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold;

    2015-01-01

    Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but ...

  5. Mouse Karyotype Obtained by Combining DAPI Staining with Image Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    In this study, mitotic metaphase chromosomes in mouse were identified by a new chromosome fluorescence banding technique combining DAPI staining with image analysis. Clear 4', 6-diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI) multiple bands like G-bands could be produced in mouse. The MetaMorph software was then used to generate linescans of pixel intensity for the banded chromosomes from short arm to long arm. These linescans were sufficient not only to identify each individual chromosome but also analyze the physical sites of bands in chromosome. Based on the results, the clear and accurate karyotype of mouse metaphase chromosomes was established. The technique is therefore considered to be a new method for cytological studies of mouse.

  6. Microflora analysis of a child with severe combined immune deficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, G. R.; Kropp, K. D.; Molina, T. C.

    1978-01-01

    The paper presents a microflora analysis of a 5-year-old male child with severe combined immune deficiency who was delivered by Caesarean section and continuously maintained in an isolator. Despite precautions, it was found that the child had come in contact with at least 54 different microbial contaminants. While his skin autoflora was similar to that of a reference group of healthy male adults in numbers of different species and the number of viable cells present per square centimeter of surface area, the subject's autoflora differed from the reference group in that significantly fewer anaerobic species were recovered from the patient's mouth and feces. It is suggested that the child's remaining disease free shows that the reported bacteria are noninvasive or that the unaffected components of the child's immune defense mechanisms are important.

  7. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  8. Ensembl Genomes 2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kersey, Paul Julian; Allen, James E; Christensen, Mikkel;

    2014-01-01

    , and provides a complementary set of resources for non-vertebrate species through a consistent set of programmatic and interactive interfaces. These provide access to data including reference sequence, gene models, transcriptional data, polymorphisms and comparative analysis. This article provides an update...

  9. Hybrid ensemble 4DVar assimilation of stratospheric ozone using a global shallow water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Douglas R.; Hoppel, Karl W.; Kuhl, David D.

    2016-07-01

    Wind extraction from stratospheric ozone (O3) assimilation is examined using a hybrid ensemble 4-D variational assimilation (4DVar) shallow water model (SWM) system coupled to the tracer advection equation. Stratospheric radiance observations are simulated using global observations of the SWM fluid height (Z), while O3 observations represent sampling by a typical polar-orbiting satellite. Four ensemble sizes were examined (25, 50, 100, and 1518 members), with the largest ensemble equal to the number of dynamical state variables. The optimal length scale for ensemble localization was found by tuning an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). This scale was then used for localizing the ensemble covariances that were blended with conventional covariances in the hybrid 4DVar experiments. Both optimal length scale and optimal blending coefficient increase with ensemble size, with optimal blending coefficients varying from 0.2-0.5 for small ensembles to 0.5-1.0 for large ensembles. The hybrid system outperforms conventional 4DVar for all ensemble sizes, while for large ensembles the hybrid produces similar results to the offline EnKF. Assimilating O3 in addition to Z benefits the winds in the hybrid system, with the fractional improvement in global vector wind increasing from ˜ 35 % with 25 and 50 members to ˜ 50 % with 1518 members. For the smallest ensembles (25 and 50 members), the hybrid 4DVar assimilation improves the zonal wind analysis over conventional 4DVar in the Northern Hemisphere (winter-like) region and also at the Equator, where Z observations alone have difficulty constraining winds due to lack of geostrophy. For larger ensembles (100 and 1518 members), the hybrid system results in both zonal and meridional wind error reductions, relative to 4DVar, across the globe.

  10. Comparison and combination of EAKF and SIR-PF in the Bayesian filter framework

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHEN Zheqi; ZHANG Xiangming; TANG Youmin

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian estimation theory provides a general approach for the state estimate of linear or nonlinear and Gaussian or non-Gaussian systems. In this study, we first explore two Bayesian-based methods: ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) and sequential importance resampling particle filter (SIR-PF), using a well-known nonlinear and non-Gaussian model (Lorenz '63 model). The EAKF, which is a deterministic scheme of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), performs better than the classical (stochastic) EnKF in a general framework. Comparison between the SIR-PF and the EAKF reveals that the former outperforms the latter if ensemble size is so large that can avoid the filter degeneracy, and vice versa. The impact of the probability density functions and effective ensemble sizes on assimilation performances are also explored. On the basis of comparisons between the SIR-PF and the EAKF, a mixture filter, called ensemble adjustment Kalman particle filter (EAKPF), is proposed to combine their both merits. Similar to the ensemble Kalman particle filter, which combines the stochastic EnKF and SIR-PF analysis schemes with a tuning parameter, the new mixture filter essentially provides a continuous interpolation between the EAKF and SIR-PF. The same Lorenz '63 model is used as a testbed, showing that the EAKPF is able to overcome filter degeneracy while maintaining the non-Gaussian nature, and performs better than the EAKF given limited ensemble size.

  11. Quantum teleportation between remote atomic-ensemble quantum memories

    CERN Document Server

    Bao, Xiao-Hui; Li, Che-Ming; Yuan, Zhen-Sheng; Lu, Chao-Yang; Pan, Jian-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Quantum teleportation and quantum memory are two crucial elements for large-scale quantum networks. With the help of prior distributed entanglement as a "quantum channel", quantum teleportation provides an intriguing means to faithfully transfer quantum states among distant locations without actual transmission of the physical carriers. Quantum memory enables controlled storage and retrieval of fast-flying photonic quantum bits with stationary matter systems, which is essential to achieve the scalability required for large-scale quantum networks. Combining these two capabilities, here we realize quantum teleportation between two remote atomic-ensemble quantum memory nodes, each composed of 100 million rubidium atoms and connected by a 150-meter optical fiber. The spinwave state of one atomic ensemble is mapped to a propagating photon, and subjected to Bell-state measurements with another single photon that is entangled with the spinwave state of the other ensemble. Two-photon detection events herald the succe...

  12. Enhanced Sampling in the Well-Tempered Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonomi, M.; Parrinello, M.

    2010-05-01

    We introduce the well-tempered ensemble (WTE) which is the biased ensemble sampled by well-tempered metadynamics when the energy is used as collective variable. WTE can be designed so as to have approximately the same average energy as the canonical ensemble but much larger fluctuations. These two properties lead to an extremely fast exploration of phase space. An even greater efficiency is obtained when WTE is combined with parallel tempering. Unbiased Boltzmann averages are computed on the fly by a recently developed reweighting method [M. Bonomi , J. Comput. Chem. 30, 1615 (2009)JCCHDD0192-865110.1002/jcc.21305]. We apply WTE and its parallel tempering variant to the 2d Ising model and to a Gō model of HIV protease, demonstrating in these two representative cases that convergence is accelerated by orders of magnitude.

  13. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Luo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF by (in effect adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.

  14. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, X.

    2012-10-03

    Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.

  15. Constructing Support Vector Machine Ensembles for Cancer Classification Based on Proteomic Profiling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Mao; Xiao-Bo Zhou; Dao-Ying Pi; You-Xian Sun

    2005-01-01

    In this study, we present a constructive algorithm for training cooperative support vector machine ensembles (CSVMEs). CSVME combines ensemble architecture design with cooperative training for individual SVMs in ensembles. Unlike most previous studies on training ensembles, CSVME puts emphasis on both accuracy and collaboration among individual SVMs in an ensemble. A group of SVMs selected on the basis of recursive classifier elimination is used in CSVME, and the number of the individual SVMs selected to construct CSVME is determined by 10-fold cross-validation. This kind of SVME has been tested on two ovarian cancer datasets previously obtained by proteomic mass spectrometry. By combining several individual SVMs, the proposed method achieves better performance than the SVME of all base SVMs.

  16. An adaptive additive inflation scheme for Ensemble Kalman Filters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Matthias; Janjic, Tijana

    2016-04-01

    Data assimilation for atmospheric dynamics requires an accurate estimate for the uncertainty of the forecast in order to obtain an optimal combination with available observations. This uncertainty has two components, firstly the uncertainty which originates in the the initial condition of that forecast itself and secondly the error of the numerical model used. While the former can be approximated quite successfully with an ensemble of forecasts (an additional sampling error will occur), little is known about the latter. For ensemble data assimilation, ad-hoc methods to address model error include multiplicative and additive inflation schemes, possibly also flow-dependent. The additive schemes rely on samples for the model error e.g. from short-term forecast tendencies or differences of forecasts with varying resolutions. However since these methods work in ensemble space (i.e. act directly on the ensemble perturbations) the sampling error is fixed and can be expected to affect the skill substiantially. In this contribution we show how inflation can be generalized to take into account more degrees of freedom and what improvements for future operational ensemble data assimilation can be expected from this, also in comparison with other inflation schemes.

  17. First combined cladistic analysis of marsupial mammal interrelationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asher, Robert J; Horovitz, Inés; Sánchez-Villagra, Marcelo R

    2004-10-01

    We combine osteological, dental, and soft tissue data with sequences from three nuclear and five mitochondrial genes, sampling all major living clades of marsupials plus several extinct taxa, to perform a simultaneous analysis of marsupial interrelationships. These data were analyzed using direct optimization and sensitivity analysis on a parallel supercomputing cluster, and compared with trees produced with conventional parsimony and likelihood algorithms using a static alignment. A major issue in marsupial phylogeny is the relationships among australidelphians. Optimal analyses using direct optimization and those based on the static alignment support the basal positions of peramelians (bandicoots) and Dromiciops ('monito del monte') within Australidelphia, and in all but one case these analyses support a monophyletic Eometatheria, a group consisting of all australidelphians excluding peramelians. Dromiciops is basal within Eometatheria in analyses that maximize congruence across partitions, including the equally weighted parameter set. The topologies resulting from direct optimization under all parameter sets show some differences, but all show a high degree of resolution. Direct optimization supports high-level clades supported by analyses of partitioned molecular (e.g., Notoryctes as sister group of Dasyuromorphia) and morphological (e.g., Diprotodontia) data.

  18. Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zied Ben Bouallègue

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available COSMO-DE-EPS, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE, is pre-operational since December 2010, providing probabilistic forecasts which cover Germany. This ensemble system comprises 20 members based on variations of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics parameterizations and the initial conditions. In order to increase the sample size in a computationally inexpensive way, COSMO-DE-EPS is combined with alternative ensemble techniques: the neighborhood method and the time-lagged approach. Their impact on the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts is assessed. Objective verification is performed over a six months period, scores based on the Brier score and its decomposition are shown for June 2011. The combination of the ensemble system with the alternative approaches improves probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in particular for high precipitation thresholds. Moreover, combining COSMO-DE-EPS with only the time-lagged approach improves the skill of area probabilities for precipitation and does not deteriorate the skill of 2 m-temperature and wind gusts forecasts.

  19. Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ben Bouallegue, Zied; Theis, Susanne E.; Gebhardt, Christoph [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main (Germany)

    2013-02-15

    COSMO-DE-EPS, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE, is pre-operational since December 2010, providing probabilistic forecasts which cover Germany. This ensemble system comprises 20 members based on variations of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics parameterizations and the initial conditions. In order to increase the sample size in a computationally inexpensive way, COSMO-DE-EPS is combined with alternative ensemble techniques: the neighborhood method and the time-lagged approach. Their impact on the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts is assessed. Objective verification is performed over a six months period, scores based on the Brier score and its decomposition are shown for June 2011. The combination of the ensemble system with the alternative approaches improves probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in particular for high precipitation thresholds. Moreover, combining COSMO-DE-EPS with only the time-lagged approach improves the skill of area probabilities for precipitation and does not deteriorate the skill of 2 m-temperature and wind gusts forecasts. (orig.)

  20. Accounting for three sources of uncertainty in ensemble hydrological forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Thiboult

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Seeking for more accuracy and reliability, the hydrometeorological community has developed several tools to decipher the different sources of uncertainty in relevant modeling processes. Among them, the Ensemble Kalman Filter, multimodel approaches and meteorological ensemble forecasting proved to have the capability to improve upon deterministic hydrological forecast. This study aims at untangling the sources of uncertainty by studying the combination of these tools and assessing their contribution to the overall forecast quality. Each of these components is able to capture a certain aspect of the total uncertainty and improve the forecast at different stage in the forecasting process by using different means. Their combination outperforms any of the tool used solely. The EnKF is shown to contribute largely to the ensemble accuracy and dispersion, indicating that the initial condition uncertainty is dominant. However, it fails to maintain the required dispersion throughout the entire forecast horizon and needs to be supported by a multimodel approach to take into account structural uncertainty. Moreover, the multimodel approach contributes to improve the general forecasting performance and prevents from falling into the model selection pitfall since models differ strongly in their ability. Finally, the use of probabilistic meteorological forcing was found to contribute mostly to long lead time reliability. Particular attention needs to be paid to the combination of the tools, especially in the Ensemble Kalman Filter tuning to avoid overlapping in error deciphering.

  1. Novel algorithm for constructing support vector machine regression ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Bo; Li Xinjun; Zhao Zhiyan

    2006-01-01

    A novel algorithm for constructing support vector machine regression ensemble is proposed. As to regression prediction, support vector machine regression(SVMR) ensemble is proposed by resampling from given training data sets repeatedly and aggregating several independent SVMRs, each of which is trained to use a replicated training set. After training, several independently trained SVMRs need to be aggregated in an appropriate combination manner. Generally, the linear weighting is usually used like expert weighting score in Boosting Regression and it is without optimization capacity. Three combination techniques are proposed, including simple arithmetic mean,linear least square error weighting and nonlinear hierarchical combining that uses another upper-layer SVMR to combine several lower-layer SVMRs. Finally, simulation experiments demonstrate the accuracy and validity of the presented algorithm.

  2. Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filter for geophysical data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyrulnikov, Michael; Rakitko, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    In the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the forecast error covariance matrix B is estimated from a sample (ensemble), which inevitably implies a degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty is especially large in high dimensions, where the affordable ensemble size is orders of magnitude less than the dimensionality of the system. Common remedies include ad-hoc devices like variance inflation and covariance localization. The goal of this study is to optimize the account for the inherent uncertainty of the B matrix in EnKF. Following the idea by Myrseth and Omre (2010), we explicitly admit that the B matrix is unknown and random and estimate it along with the state (x) in an optimal hierarchical Bayes analysis scheme. We separate forecast errors into predictability errors (i.e. forecast errors due to uncertainties in the initial data) and model errors (forecast errors due to imperfections in the forecast model) and include the two respective components P and Q of the B matrix into the extended control vector (x,P,Q). Similarly, we break the traditional forecast ensemble into the predictability-error related ensemble and model-error related ensemble. The reason for the separation of model errors from predictability errors is the fundamental difference between the two sources of error. Model error are external (i.e. do not depend on the filter's performance) whereas predictability errors are internal to a filter (i.e. are determined by the filter's behavior). At the analysis step, we specify Inverse Wishart based priors for the random matrices P and Q and conditionally Gaussian prior for the state x. Then, we update the prior distribution of (x,P,Q) using both observation and ensemble data, so that ensemble members are used as generalized observations and ordinary observations are allowed to influence the covariances. We show that for linear dynamics and linear observation operators, conditional Gaussianity of the state is preserved in the course of filtering. At the forecast

  3. Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Motion Using a Baroclinic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaqiong ZHOU; Johnny C.L.CHEN

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of two different ensemble forecasting (EF) techniques-the lagged-averaged forecast (LAF) and the breeding of growing modes (BGM). In the BGM experiments, the vortex and the environment are perturbed separately (named BGMV and BGME).Tropical cyclone (TC) motions in two difficult situations are studied: a large vortex interacting with its environment, and an apparent binary interaction. The former is Typhoon Yancy and the latter involves Typhoon Ed and super Typhoon Flo, all occurring during the Tropical Cyclone Motion Experiment TCM-90. The model used is the baroclinic model of the University of New South Wales. The lateral boundary tendencies are computed from atmospheric analysis data. Only the relative skill of the ensemble forecast mean over the control run is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the EF methods, although the EF technique is also used to quantify forecast uncertainty in some studies. In the case of Yancy, the ensemble mean forecasts of each of the three methodologies are better than that of the control, with LAF being the best. The mean track of the LAF is close to the best track, and it predicts landfall over Taiwan. The improvements in LAF and the full BGM where both the environment and vortex are perturbed suggest the importance of combining the perturbation of the vortex and environment when the interaction between the two is appreciable. In the binary interaction case of Ed and Flo, the forecasts of Ed appear to be insensitive to perturbations of the environment and/or the vortex, which apparently results from erroneous forecasts by the model of the interaction between the subtropical ridge and Ed, as well as from the interaction between the two typhoons, thus reducing the effectiveness of the EF technique. This conclusion is reached through sensitivity experiments on the domain of the model and by adding or eliminating certain features in the model atmosphere. Nevertheless, the

  4. Development of Ensemble Model Based Water Demand Forecasting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Hyun-Han; So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Seong-Hyeon; Kim, Byung-Seop

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and optimal pump operation and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. Existing water demand forecasting models are categorized into two groups in view of modeling and predicting their behavior in time series. One is to consider embedded patterns such as seasonality, periodicity and trends, and the other one is an autoregressive model that is using short memory Markovian processes (Emmanuel et al., 2012). The main disadvantage of the abovementioned model is that there is a limit to predictability of water demands of about sub-daily scale because the system is nonlinear. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The proposed model is consist of two parts. One is a multi-model scheme that is based on combination of independent prediction model. The other one is a cross validation scheme named Bagging approach introduced by Brieman (1996) to derive weighting factors corresponding to individual models. Individual forecasting models that used in this study are linear regression analysis model, polynomial regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS), SVM(support vector machine). The concepts are demonstrated through application to observed from water plant at several locations in the South Korea. Keywords: water demand, non-linear model, the ensemble forecasting model, uncertainty. Acknowledgements This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Projects for Developing Eco-Innovation Technologies (GT-11-G-02-001-6)

  5. Study on ETKF-Based Initial Perturbation Scheme for GRAPES Global Ensemble Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Xulin; XUE Jishan; LU Weisong

    2009-01-01

    Initial perturbation scheme is one of the important problems for ensemble prediction. In this paper,ensemble initial perturbation scheme for Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES)global ensemble prediction is developed in terms of the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) method.A new GRAPES global ensemble prediction system (GEPS) is also constructed. The spherical simplex 14-member ensemble prediction experiments, using the simulated observation network and error character-lstics of simulated observations and innovation-based inflation, are carried out for about two months. The structure characters and perturbation amplitudes of the ETKF initial perturbations and the perturbation growth characters are analyzed, and their qualities and abilities for the ensemble initial perturbations are given.The preliminary experimental results indicate that the ETKF-based GRAPES ensemble initial perturba- tions could identify main normal structures of analysis error variance and reflect the perturbation amplitudes.The initial perturbations and the spread are reasonable. The initial perturbation variance, which is approx-imately equal to the forecast error variance, is found to respond to changes in the observational spatial variations with simulated observational network density. The perturbations generated through the simplex method are also shown to exhibit a very high degree of consistency between initial analysis and short-range forecast perturbations. The appropriate growth and spread of ensemble perturbations can be maintained up to 96-h lead time. The statistical results for 52-day ensemble forecasts show that the forecast scores of ensemble average for the Northern Hemisphere are higher than that of the control forecast. Provided that using more ensemble members, a real-time observational network and a more appropriate inflation factor,better effects of the ETKF-based initial scheme should be shown.

  6. Ensemble Learned Vaccination Uptake Prediction using Web Search Queries

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Niels Dalum; Lioma, Christina; Mølbak, Kåre

    2016-01-01

    We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake eff?ectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields...

  7. Assessment of ENSEMBLES regional climate models for the representation of monthly wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea (Greece): Mean and extremes analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Tolika, Konstantia; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Velikou, Kondylia; Vagenas, Christos

    2013-04-01

    The main scope of the present study is the assessment of the ability of three of the most updated regional climate models, developed under the frame of the European research project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/), to simulate the wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea in Greece. The examined models are KNMI-RACMO2, MPI-MREMO, and ICTP - RegCM3. They all have the same spatial resolution (25x25km) and for their future projections they are using the A1B SRES emission scenarios. Their simulated wind data (speed and direction) were compared with observational data from several stations over the domain of study for a time period of 25 years, from 1980 to 2004 on a monthly basis. The primer data were available every three or six hours from which we computed the mean daily wind speed and the prevailing daily wind direction. It should be mentioned, that the comparison was made for the grid point that was the closest to each station over land. Moreover, the extreme speed values were also calculated both for the observational and the simulated data, in order to assess the ability of the models in capturing the most intense wind conditions. The first results of the study showed that the prevailing winds during the winter and spring months have a north - northeastern or a south - south western direction in most parts of the Aegean sea. The models under examination seem to capture quite satisfactorily this pattern as well as the general characteristics of the winds in this area. During summer, winds in the Aegean Sea have mainly north direction and the models have quite good agreement both in simulating this direction and the wind speed. Concerning the extreme wind speed (percentiles) it was found that for the stations in the northern Aegean all the models overestimate the extreme wind indices. For the eastern parts of the Aegean the KNMI and the MPI model underestimate the extreme wind speeds while on the other hand the ICTP model overestimates them. Finally for the

  8. Reliability analysis of the combined district heating systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharapov, V. I.; Orlov, M. E.; Kunin, M. V.

    2015-12-01

    Technologies that improve the reliability and efficiency of the combined district heating systems in urban areas are considered. The calculation method of reliability of the CHP combined district heating systems is proposed. The comparative estimation of the reliability of traditional and combined district heating systems is performed.

  9. Symanzik flow on HISQ ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Hetrick, J E; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Oktay, M; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S; Zhou, R

    2013-01-01

    We report on a scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The lattice scale $w_0/a$, originally proposed by the BMW collaboration, is computed using Symanzik flow at four lattice spacings ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm. With a Taylor series ansatz, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. We give a preliminary determination of the scale $w_0$ in physical units, along with associated systematic errors, and compare with results from other groups. We also present a first estimate of autocorrelation lengths as a function of flowtime for these ensembles.

  10. Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Guo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960–2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD. Obvious non-linear upward trends in precipitation were found in the north, south, east and the entire Xinjiang. Changes in precipitation in Xinjiang exhibited significant inter-annual scale (quasi-2 and quasi-6 years and inter-decadal scale (quasi-12 and quasi-23 years. Moreover, the 2–3-year quasi-periodic fluctuation was dominant in regional precipitation and the inter-annual variation had a considerable effect on the regional-scale precipitation variation in Xinjiang. We also found that there were distinctive spatial differences in variation trends and turning points of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results of this study indicated that compared to traditional decomposition methods, the EEMD method, without using any a priori determined basis functions, could effectively extract the reliable multi-scale fluctuations and reveal the intrinsic oscillation properties of climate elements.

  11. Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Bin; Chen, Zhongsheng; Guo, Jinyun; Liu, Feng; Chen, Chuanfa; Liu, Kangli

    2016-03-01

    Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960-2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Obvious non-linear upward trends in precipitation were found in the north, south, east and the entire Xinjiang. Changes in precipitation in Xinjiang exhibited significant inter-annual scale (quasi-2 and quasi-6 years) and inter-decadal scale (quasi-12 and quasi-23 years). Moreover, the 2-3-year quasi-periodic fluctuation was dominant in regional precipitation and the inter-annual variation had a considerable effect on the regional-scale precipitation variation in Xinjiang. We also found that there were distinctive spatial differences in variation trends and turning points of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results of this study indicated that compared to traditional decomposition methods, the EEMD method, without using any a priori determined basis functions, could effectively extract the reliable multi-scale fluctuations and reveal the intrinsic oscillation properties of climate elements. PMID:27007388

  12. Simple Deep Random Model Ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    ZHANG, XIAO-LEI; Wu, Ji

    2013-01-01

    Representation learning and unsupervised learning are two central topics of machine learning and signal processing. Deep learning is one of the most effective unsupervised representation learning approach. The main contributions of this paper to the topics are as follows. (i) We propose to view the representative deep learning approaches as special cases of the knowledge reuse framework of clustering ensemble. (ii) We propose to view sparse coding when used as a feature encoder as the consens...

  13. The Impact of Mesoscale Environmental Uncertainty on the Prediction of a Tornadic Supercell Storm Using Ensemble Data Assimilation Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nusrat Yussouf

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical experiments over the past years indicate that incorporating environmental variability is crucial for successful very short-range convective-scale forecasts. To explore the impact of model physics on the creation of environmental variability and its uncertainty, combined mesoscale-convective scale data assimilation experiments are conducted for a tornadic supercell storm. Two 36-member WRF-ARW model-based mesoscale EAKF experiments are conducted to provide background environments using either fixed or multiple physics schemes across the ensemble members. Two 36-member convective-scale ensembles are initialized using background fields from either fixed physics or multiple physics mesoscale ensemble analyses. Radar observations from four operational WSR-88Ds are assimilated into convective-scale ensembles using ARPS model-based 3DVAR system and ensemble forecasts are launched. Results show that the ensemble with background fields from multiple physics ensemble provides more realistic forecasts of significant tornado parameter, dryline structure, and near surface variables than ensemble from fixed physics background fields. The probabilities of strong low-level updraft helicity from multiple physics ensemble correlate better with observed tornado and rotation tracks than probabilities from fixed physics ensemble. This suggests that incorporating physics diversity across the ensemble can be important to successful probabilistic convective-scale forecast of supercell thunderstorms, which is the main goal of NOAA’s Warn-on-Forecast initiative.

  14. Ensemble Modeling of Cancer Metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahmineh eKhazaei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The metabolic behaviour of cancer cells is adapted to meet their proliferative needs, with notable changes such as enhanced lactate secretion and glucose uptake rates. In this work, we use the Ensemble Modeling (EM framework to gain insight and predict potential drug targets for tumour cells. EM generates a set of models which span the space of kinetic parameters that are constrained by thermodynamics. Perturbation data based on known targets are used to screen the entire ensemble of models to obtain a sub-set, which is increasingly predictive. EM allows for incorporation of regulatory information and captures the behaviour of enzymatic reactions at the molecular level by representing reactions in the elementary reaction form. In this study, a metabolic network consisting of 58 reactions is considered and accounts for glycolysis, the pentose phosphate pathway, lipid metabolism, amino acid metabolism, and includes allosteric regulation of key enzymes. Experimentally measured intracellular and extracellular metabolite concentrations are used for developing the ensemble of models along with information on established drug targets. The resulting models predicted transaldolase (TALA and succinyl-CoA ligase (SUCOAS1m to cause a significant reduction in growth rate when repressed, relative to currently known drug targets. Furthermore, the results suggest that the synergetic repression of transaldolase and glycine hydroxymethyltransferase (GHMT2r will lead to a three-fold decrease in growth rate compared to the repression of single enzyme targets.

  15. Analysis of the Bias on the Beidou GEO Multipath Combinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yafei; Yuan, Yunbin; Chai, Yanju; Huang, Yong

    2016-01-01

    The Beidou navigation satellite system is a very important sensor for positioning in the Asia-Pacific region. The Beidou inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) and medium Earth orbit (MEO) satellites have been analysed in some studies previously conducted by other researchers; this paper seeks to gain more insight regarding the geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites. Employing correlation analysis, Fourier transformation and wavelet decomposition, we validate whether there is a systematic bias in their multipath combinations. These biases can be observed clearly in satellites C01, C02 and C04 and have a great correlation with time series instead of elevation, being significantly different from those of the Beidou IGSO and MEO satellites. We propose a correction model to mitigate this bias based on its daily periodicity characteristic. After the model has been applied, the performance of the positioning estimations of the eight stations distributed in the Asia-Pacific region is evaluated and compared. The results show that residuals of multipath series behaves random noise; for the single point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) approaches, the positioning accuracy in the upward direction can be improved by 8 cm and 6 mm, respectively, and by 2 cm and 4 mm, respectively, for the horizontal component. PMID:27509503

  16. A combined approach for comparative exoproteome analysis of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scrivens James H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bacterial exported proteins represent key components of the host-pathogen interplay. Hence, we sought to implement a combined approach for characterizing the entire exoproteome of the pathogenic bacterium Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis, the etiological agent of caseous lymphadenitis (CLA in sheep and goats. Results An optimized protocol of three-phase partitioning (TPP was used to obtain the C. pseudotuberculosis exoproteins, and a newly introduced method of data-independent MS acquisition (LC-MSE was employed for protein identification and label-free quantification. Additionally, the recently developed tool SurfG+ was used for in silico prediction of sub-cellular localization of the identified proteins. In total, 93 different extracellular proteins of C. pseudotuberculosis were identified with high confidence by this strategy; 44 proteins were commonly identified in two different strains, isolated from distinct hosts, then composing a core C. pseudotuberculosis exoproteome. Analysis with the SurfG+ tool showed that more than 75% (70/93 of the identified proteins could be predicted as containing signals for active exportation. Moreover, evidence could be found for probable non-classical export of most of the remaining proteins. Conclusions Comparative analyses of the exoproteomes of two C. pseudotuberculosis strains, in addition to comparison with other experimentally determined corynebacterial exoproteomes, were helpful to gain novel insights into the contribution of the exported proteins in the virulence of this bacterium. The results presented here compose the most comprehensive coverage of the exoproteome of a corynebacterial species so far.

  17. Combined Thermo-Hydraulic Analysis of a Cryogenic Jet

    CERN Document Server

    Chorowski, M

    1999-01-01

    A cryogenic jet is a phenomenon encountered in different fields like some technological processes and cryosurgery. It may also be a result of cryogenic equipment rupture or a cryogen discharge from the cryostats following resistive transition in superconducting magnets. Heat exchange between a cold jet and a warm steel element (e.g. a buffer tank wall or a transfer line vacuum vessel wall) may result in an excessive localisation of thermal strains and stresses. The objective of the analysis is to get a combined (analytical and experimental) one-dimensional model of a cryogenic jet that will enable estimation of heat transfer intensity between the jet and steel plate with a suitable accuracy for engineering applications. The jet diameter can only be determined experimentally. The mean velocity profile can be calculated from the fact that the total flux of momentum along the jet axis is conserved. The proposed model allows deriving the jet crown area with respect to the distance from the vent and the mean veloc...

  18. Analysis of the Bias on the Beidou GEO Multipath Combinations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yafei Ning

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The Beidou navigation satellite system is a very important sensor for positioning in the Asia-Pacific region. The Beidou inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO and medium Earth orbit (MEO satellites have been analysed in some studies previously conducted by other researchers; this paper seeks to gain more insight regarding the geostationary earth orbit (GEO satellites. Employing correlation analysis, Fourier transformation and wavelet decomposition, we validate whether there is a systematic bias in their multipath combinations. These biases can be observed clearly in satellites C01, C02 and C04 and have a great correlation with time series instead of elevation, being significantly different from those of the Beidou IGSO and MEO satellites. We propose a correction model to mitigate this bias based on its daily periodicity characteristic. After the model has been applied, the performance of the positioning estimations of the eight stations distributed in the Asia-Pacific region is evaluated and compared. The results show that residuals of multipath series behaves random noise; for the single point positioning (SPP and precise point positioning (PPP approaches, the positioning accuracy in the upward direction can be improved by 8 cm and 6 mm, respectively, and by 2 cm and 4 mm, respectively, for the horizontal component.

  19. Combined HRTEM and PEELS analysis of nanoporous and amorphous carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Both the mass density (1.37 kgm/m3) and sp2+sp3 bonding fraction (0.15) were determined for an unusual nanoporous amorphous carbon consisting of curved single graphitic sheets. A combination of high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) and parallel electron energy loss spectroscopy (PEELS) was used. The values of these two parameters provide important constraints for the determination of the structure of this relatively low density variety of nanoporous carbon. The results are relevant also in the search for negatively-curved Schwarzite-related carbon structures. New date are also presented for highly-oriented pyrollytic graphite (HOPG), chemically vapour deposited (CVD) diamond, C60, glassy carbon (GC) and evaporated amorphous carbon (EAC); these are compared with the results for NAC. Kramers-Kronig analysis (KKA) of the low-loss PEELS data shows that the band gaps of both NAC and EAC are collapsed relative to that of CVD diamond. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  20. Analysis of the Bias on the Beidou GEO Multipath Combinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yafei; Yuan, Yunbin; Chai, Yanju; Huang, Yong

    2016-01-01

    The Beidou navigation satellite system is a very important sensor for positioning in the Asia-Pacific region. The Beidou inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) and medium Earth orbit (MEO) satellites have been analysed in some studies previously conducted by other researchers; this paper seeks to gain more insight regarding the geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites. Employing correlation analysis, Fourier transformation and wavelet decomposition, we validate whether there is a systematic bias in their multipath combinations. These biases can be observed clearly in satellites C01, C02 and C04 and have a great correlation with time series instead of elevation, being significantly different from those of the Beidou IGSO and MEO satellites. We propose a correction model to mitigate this bias based on its daily periodicity characteristic. After the model has been applied, the performance of the positioning estimations of the eight stations distributed in the Asia-Pacific region is evaluated and compared. The results show that residuals of multipath series behaves random noise; for the single point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) approaches, the positioning accuracy in the upward direction can be improved by 8 cm and 6 mm, respectively, and by 2 cm and 4 mm, respectively, for the horizontal component. PMID:27509503

  1. Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Glass Transition Behavior of Polyimide Ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The effect of chromophores to the glass transition temperature of polyimide ensemble has been investigated by means of molecular dynamics simulation in conjunction with barrier analysis. Simulated Tg results indicated a good agreement with experimental value. This study showed the MD simulation could estimate the effect of chromophores to the Tg of polyimide ensemble conveniently and an estimation approach method had a surprising deviation of Tg from experiment. At the same time, a polyimide structure with higher barrier energy was designed and validated by MD simulation.

  2. An Adaptive Approach to Mitigate Background Covariance Limitations in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    KAUST Repository

    Song, Hajoon

    2010-07-01

    A new approach is proposed to address the background covariance limitations arising from undersampled ensembles and unaccounted model errors in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The method enhances the representativeness of the EnKF ensemble by augmenting it with new members chosen adaptively to add missing information that prevents the EnKF from fully fitting the data to the ensemble. The vectors to be added are obtained by back projecting the residuals of the observation misfits from the EnKF analysis step onto the state space. The back projection is done using an optimal interpolation (OI) scheme based on an estimated covariance of the subspace missing from the ensemble. In the experiments reported here, the OI uses a preselected stationary background covariance matrix, as in the hybrid EnKF–three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) approach, but the resulting correction is included as a new ensemble member instead of being added to all existing ensemble members. The adaptive approach is tested with the Lorenz-96 model. The hybrid EnKF–3DVAR is used as a benchmark to evaluate the performance of the adaptive approach. Assimilation experiments suggest that the new adaptive scheme significantly improves the EnKF behavior when it suffers from small size ensembles and neglected model errors. It was further found to be competitive with the hybrid EnKF–3DVAR approach, depending on ensemble size and data coverage.

  3. Generalized Hypergeometric Ensembles: Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Complex Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Casiraghi, Giona; Scholtes, Ingo; Schweitzer, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Statistical ensembles define probability spaces of all networks consistent with given aggregate statistics and have become instrumental in the analysis of relational data on networked systems. Their numerical and analytical study provides the foundation for the inference of topological patterns, the definition of network-analytic measures, as well as for model selection and statistical hypothesis testing. Contributing to the foundation of these important data science techniques, in this article we introduce generalized hypergeometric ensembles, a framework of analytically tractable statistical ensembles of finite, directed and weighted networks. This framework can be interpreted as a generalization of the classical configuration model, which is commonly used to randomly generate networks with a given degree sequence or distribution. Our generalization rests on the introduction of dyadic link propensities, which capture the degree-corrected tendencies of pairs of nodes to form edges between each other. Studyin...

  4. Optimal Spatial Prediction Using Ensemble Machine Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Molly Margaret; van der Laan, Mark J

    2016-05-01

    Spatial prediction is an important problem in many scientific disciplines. Super Learner is an ensemble prediction approach related to stacked generalization that uses cross-validation to search for the optimal predictor amongst all convex combinations of a heterogeneous candidate set. It has been applied to non-spatial data, where theoretical results demonstrate it will perform asymptotically at least as well as the best candidate under consideration. We review these optimality properties and discuss the assumptions required in order for them to hold for spatial prediction problems. We present results of a simulation study confirming Super Learner works well in practice under a variety of sample sizes, sampling designs, and data-generating functions. We also apply Super Learner to a real world dataset. PMID:27130244

  5. Combined statistical analysis of landslide release and propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, Martin; Rohmaneo, Mohammad; Chu, Hone-Jay

    2016-04-01

    quantify this relationship by a set of empirical curves. (6) Finally, we multiply the zonal release probability with the impact probability in order to estimate the combined impact probability for each pixel. We demonstrate the model with a 167 km² study area in Taiwan, using an inventory of landslides triggered by the typhoon Morakot. Analyzing the model results leads us to a set of key conclusions: (i) The average composite impact probability over the entire study area corresponds well to the density of observed landside pixels. Therefore we conclude that the method is valid in general, even though the concept of the zonal release probability bears some conceptual issues that have to be kept in mind. (ii) The parameters used as predictors cannot fully explain the observed distribution of landslides. The size of the release zone influences the composite impact probability to a larger degree than the pixel-based release probability. (iii) The prediction rate increases considerably when excluding the largest, deep-seated, landslides from the analysis. We conclude that such landslides are mainly related to geological features hardly reflected in the predictor layers used.

  6. Matrices of fidelities for ensembles of quantum states and the Holevo quantity

    CERN Document Server

    Fannes, Mark; Roga, Wojciech; Zyczkowski, Karol

    2011-01-01

    The entropy of the Gram matrix of a joint purification of an ensemble of K mixed states yields an upper bound for the Holevo information Chi of the ensemble. In this work we combine geometrical and probabilistic aspects of the ensemble in order to obtain useful bounds for Chi. This is done by constructing various correlation matrices involving fidelities between every pair of states from the ensemble. For K=3 quantum states we design a matrix of root fidelities that is positive and the entropy of which is conjectured to upper bound Chi. Slightly weaker bounds are established for arbitrary ensembles. Finally, we investigate correlation matrices involving multi-state fidelities in relation to the Holevo quantity.

  7. Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble-Based Estimates of Solvation Free Energies

    CERN Document Server

    Gosink, Luke J; Reehl, Sarah M; Whitney, Paul D; Mobley, David L; Baker, Nathan A

    2016-01-01

    This paper applies the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) statistical ensemble technique to estimate small molecule solvation free energies. There is a wide range methods for predicting solvation free energies, ranging from empirical statistical models to ab initio quantum mechanical approaches. Each of these methods are based on a set of conceptual assumptions that can affect a method's predictive accuracy and transferability. Using an iterative statistical process, we have selected and combined solvation energy estimates using an ensemble of 17 diverse methods from the SAMPL4 blind prediction study to form a single, aggregated solvation energy estimate. The ensemble design process evaluates the statistical information in each individual method as well as the performance of the aggregate estimate obtained from the ensemble as a whole. Methods that possess minimal or redundant information are pruned from the ensemble and the evaluation process repeats until aggregate predictive performance can no longer be improv...

  8. Optimally choosing small ensemble members to produce robust climate simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study examines the subset climate model ensemble size required to reproduce certain statistical characteristics from a full ensemble. The ensemble characteristics examined are the root mean square error, the ensemble mean and standard deviation. Subset ensembles are created using measures that consider the simulation performance alone or include a measure of simulation independence relative to other ensemble members. It is found that the independence measure is able to identify smaller subset ensembles that retain the desired full ensemble characteristics than either of the performance based measures. It is suggested that model independence be considered when choosing ensemble subsets or creating new ensembles. (letter)

  9. A hybrid nudging-ensemble Kalman filter approach to data assimilation. Part I: application in the Lorenz system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Lei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid data assimilation approach combining nudging and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF for dynamic analysis and numerical weather prediction is explored here using the non-linear Lorenz three-variable model system with the goal of a smooth, continuous and accurate data assimilation. The hybrid nudging-EnKF (HNEnKF computes the hybrid nudging coefficients from the flow-dependent, time-varying error covariance matrix from the EnKF's ensemble forecasts. It extends the standard diagonal nudging terms to additional off-diagonal statistical correlation terms for greater inter-variable influence of the innovations in the model's predictive equations to assist in the data assimilation process. The HNEnKF promotes a better fit of an analysis to data compared to that achieved by either nudging or incremental analysis update (IAU. When model error is introduced, it produces similar or better root mean square errors compared to the EnKF while minimising the error spikes/discontinuities created by the intermittent EnKF. It provides a continuous data assimilation with better inter-variable consistency and improved temporal smoothness than that of the EnKF. Data assimilation experiments are also compared to the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS. The HNEnKF has similar or better temporal smoothness than that of the EnKS, and with much smaller central processing unit (CPU time and data storage requirements.

  10. Measurement uncertainty analysis on laser tracker combined with articulated CMM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hui-ning; Yu, Lian-dong; Du, Yun; Zhang, Hai-yan

    2013-10-01

    The combined measurement technology plays an increasingly important role in the digitalized assembly. This paper introduces a combined measurement system consists of a Laser tracker and a FACMM,with the applications in the inspection of the position of the inner parts in a large-scale device. When these measurement instruments are combined, the resulting coordinate data set contains uncertainties that are a function of the base data sets and complex interactions between the measurement sets. Combined with the characteristics of Laser Tracker and Flexible Articulated Coordinate Measuring Machine (FACMM),Monte-Claro simulation mothed is employed in the uncertainty evaluation of combined measurement systems. A case study is given to demonstrate the practical applications of this research.

  11. Sequential Combination Methods forData Clustering Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钱 涛; Ching Y.Suen; 唐远炎

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes the use of more than one clustering method to improve clustering performance. Clustering is an optimization procedure based on a specific clustering criterion. Clustering combination can be regardedasatechnique that constructs and processes multiple clusteringcriteria.Sincetheglobalandlocalclusteringcriteriaarecomplementary rather than competitive, combining these two types of clustering criteria may enhance theclustering performance. In our past work, a multi-objective programming based simultaneous clustering combination algorithmhasbeenproposed, which incorporates multiple criteria into an objective function by a weighting method, and solves this problem with constrained nonlinear optimization programming. But this algorithm has high computationalcomplexity.Hereasequential combination approach is investigated, which first uses the global criterion based clustering to produce an initial result, then uses the local criterion based information to improve the initial result with aprobabilisticrelaxation algorithm or linear additive model.Compared with the simultaneous combination method, sequential combination haslow computational complexity. Results on some simulated data and standard test data arereported.Itappearsthatclustering performance improvement can be achieved at low cost through sequential combination.

  12. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering: evaluating the effect of ensemble size and localization on filter performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Rasmussen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members, an adaptive localization method is used. The performance of the adaptive localization method is compared to the more common local analysis localization. The relationship between filter performance in terms of hydraulic head and discharge error and the number of ensemble members is investigated for varying numbers and spatial distributions of groundwater head observations and with or without discharge assimilation and parameter estimation. The study shows that (1 more ensemble members are needed when fewer groundwater head observations are assimilated, and (2 assimilating discharge observations and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms local analysis localization.

  13. Tracking the Kasatochi SO2 plume using the Ensemble Kalman Filter and OMI observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vira, Julius; Theys, Nicolas; Sofiev, Mikhail

    2016-04-01

    This paper discusses an application of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation method in improving prediction of volcanic plumes. Column retrievals of SO2 from the OMI instrument are assimilated into the SILAM chemistry transport model during 8 days following the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi. The analysis ensemble is shown to accurately capture the observed horizontal distribution of the plume, and moreover, comparison with backscatter profiles from the CALIOP instrument indicates that the analysis recovers the vertical distribution of SO2 realistically. The total SO2 burden following the eruption converges to about 2 Tg, which is within the range of previous estimates. The assimilation scheme uses an 80-member ensemble generated by perturbing the source term and the meteorological input data. The SO2 emission flux is sampled from a log-normal probability distribution resulting in large initial spread in the ensemble. A prescribed umbrella profile and a power law relation between the injection height and mass flux are assumed. However, despite the assumptions in the source term perturbations, the analysis ensemble is shown to be capable of reproducing complex, multi-layer SO2 profiles consistent with previous modeling studies on the Kasatochi eruption. The meteorological perturbations are introduced in the form of random time shifts in the input data, which ensures that the input data for each ensemble member remain physically consistent. Including the meteorological perturbations prevents the ensemble spread from decreasing unrealistically as the simulation proceeds, and consequently, the assimilation remains effective in correcting the predictions throughout the simulated period. In conclusion, EnKF is a promising approach for assimilating satellite observations in volcanic plume forecasts. An advantage of the ensemble approach is that model uncertainty, which is often difficult to handle in other schemes, can be included by perturbing the ensemble. A

  14. Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars;

    2005-01-01

    offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...... superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did...

  15. Gibbs Ensembles of Nonintersecting Paths

    CERN Document Server

    Borodin, Alexei

    2008-01-01

    We consider a family of determinantal random point processes on the two-dimensional lattice and prove that members of our family can be interpreted as a kind of Gibbs ensembles of nonintersecting paths. Examples include probability measures on lozenge and domino tilings of the plane, some of which are non-translation-invariant. The correlation kernels of our processes can be viewed as extensions of the discrete sine kernel, and we show that the Gibbs property is a consequence of simple linear relations satisfied by these kernels. The processes depend on infinitely many parameters, which are closely related to parametrization of totally positive Toeplitz matrices.

  16. Ensemble Methods Foundations and Algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Zhi-Hua

    2012-01-01

    An up-to-date, self-contained introduction to a state-of-the-art machine learning approach, Ensemble Methods: Foundations and Algorithms shows how these accurate methods are used in real-world tasks. It gives you the necessary groundwork to carry out further research in this evolving field. After presenting background and terminology, the book covers the main algorithms and theories, including Boosting, Bagging, Random Forest, averaging and voting schemes, the Stacking method, mixture of experts, and diversity measures. It also discusses multiclass extension, noise tolerance, error-ambiguity a

  17. Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Bo

    2015-11-11

    We consider the Bayesian filtering problem for data assimilation following the kernel-based ensemble Gaussian-mixture filtering (EnGMF) approach introduced by Anderson and Anderson (1999). In this approach, the posterior distribution of the system state is propagated with the model using the ensemble Monte Carlo method, providing a forecast ensemble that is then used to construct a prior Gaussian-mixture (GM) based on the kernel density estimator. This results in two update steps: a Kalman filter (KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence of the bandwidth parameter of the kernel function on the covariance of the posterior distribution. We then focus on two aspects: i) the efficient implementation of EnGMF with (relatively) small ensembles, where we propose a new deterministic resampling strategy preserving the first two moments of the posterior GM to limit the sampling error; and ii) the analysis of the effect of the bandwidth parameter on contributions of KF and PF updates and on the weights variance. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model are presented to assess the behavior of EnGMF with deterministic resampling, study its sensitivity to different parameters and settings, and evaluate its performance against ensemble KFs. The proposed EnGMF approach with deterministic resampling suggests improved estimates in all tested scenarios, and is shown to require less localization and to be less sensitive to the choice of filtering parameters.

  18. Interpreting Tree Ensembles with inTrees

    OpenAIRE

    Deng, Houtao

    2014-01-01

    Tree ensembles such as random forests and boosted trees are accurate but difficult to understand, debug and deploy. In this work, we provide the inTrees (interpretable trees) framework that extracts, measures, prunes and selects rules from a tree ensemble, and calculates frequent variable interactions. An rule-based learner, referred to as the simplified tree ensemble learner (STEL), can also be formed and used for future prediction. The inTrees framework can applied to both classification an...

  19. Well-posedness and accuracy of the ensemble Kalman filter in discrete and continuous time

    KAUST Repository

    Kelly, D. T B

    2014-09-22

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations associated with the filter, which are required to make a useable algorithm in practice, are derived in an ad hoc fashion. The aim of this paper is to initiate the development of a systematic analysis of the EnKF, in particular to do so for small ensemble size. The perspective is to view the method as a state estimator, and not as an algorithm which approximates the true filtering distribution. The perturbed observation version of the algorithm is studied, without and with variance inflation. Without variance inflation well-posedness of the filter is established; with variance inflation accuracy of the filter, with respect to the true signal underlying the data, is established. The algorithm is considered in discrete time, and also for a continuous time limit arising when observations are frequent and subject to large noise. The underlying dynamical model, and assumptions about it, is sufficiently general to include the Lorenz \\'63 and \\'96 models, together with the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus. The analysis is limited to the case of complete observation of the signal with additive white noise. Numerical results are presented for the Navier-Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus for both complete and partial observations of the signal with additive white noise.

  20. Visualizing ensembles in structural biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, Ryan L; Salsbury, Freddie R

    2016-06-01

    Displaying a single representative conformation of a biopolymer rather than an ensemble of states mistakenly conveys a static nature rather than the actual dynamic personality of biopolymers. However, there are few apparent options due to the fixed nature of print media. Here we suggest a standardized methodology for visually indicating the distribution width, standard deviation and uncertainty of ensembles of states with little loss of the visual simplicity of displaying a single representative conformation. Of particular note is that the visualization method employed clearly distinguishes between isotropic and anisotropic motion of polymer subunits. We also apply this method to ligand binding, suggesting a way to indicate the expected error in many high throughput docking programs when visualizing the structural spread of the output. We provide several examples in the context of nucleic acids and proteins with particular insights gained via this method. Such examples include investigating a therapeutic polymer of FdUMP (5-fluoro-2-deoxyuridine-5-O-monophosphate) - a topoisomerase-1 (Top1), apoptosis-inducing poison - and nucleotide-binding proteins responsible for ATP hydrolysis from Bacillus subtilis. We also discuss how these methods can be extended to any macromolecular data set with an underlying distribution, including experimental data such as NMR structures. PMID:27179343

  1. Visualizing ensembles in structural biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, Ryan L; Salsbury, Freddie R

    2016-06-01

    Displaying a single representative conformation of a biopolymer rather than an ensemble of states mistakenly conveys a static nature rather than the actual dynamic personality of biopolymers. However, there are few apparent options due to the fixed nature of print media. Here we suggest a standardized methodology for visually indicating the distribution width, standard deviation and uncertainty of ensembles of states with little loss of the visual simplicity of displaying a single representative conformation. Of particular note is that the visualization method employed clearly distinguishes between isotropic and anisotropic motion of polymer subunits. We also apply this method to ligand binding, suggesting a way to indicate the expected error in many high throughput docking programs when visualizing the structural spread of the output. We provide several examples in the context of nucleic acids and proteins with particular insights gained via this method. Such examples include investigating a therapeutic polymer of FdUMP (5-fluoro-2-deoxyuridine-5-O-monophosphate) - a topoisomerase-1 (Top1), apoptosis-inducing poison - and nucleotide-binding proteins responsible for ATP hydrolysis from Bacillus subtilis. We also discuss how these methods can be extended to any macromolecular data set with an underlying distribution, including experimental data such as NMR structures.

  2. Using ensemble data assimilation to forecast hydrological flumes

    OpenAIRE

    Amour, I.; Mussa, Z.; Bibov, A.; Kauranne, T.

    2013-01-01

    Data assimilation, commonly used in weather forecasting, means combining a mathematical forecast of a target dynamical system with simultaneous measurements from that system in an optimal fashion. We demonstrate the benefits obtainable from data assimilation with a dam break flume simulation in which a shallow-water equation model is complemented with wave meter measurements. Data assimilation is conducted with a Variational Ensemble Kalman Filter (VEnKF) algorithm. The resu...

  3. An Ensemble Method based on Particle of Swarm for the Reduction of Noise, Outlier and Core Point

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satish Dehariya,

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The majority voting and accurate prediction ofclassification algorithm in data mining arechallenging task for data classification. For theimprovement of data classification used differentclassifier along with another classifier in a mannerof ensembleprocess. Ensemble process increase theclassification ratio of classification algorithm, nowsuch par diagram of classification algorithm iscalled ensemble classifier. Ensemble learning is atechnique to improve the performance and accuracyof classification and predication of machinelearning algorithm. Many researchers proposed amodel for ensemble classifier for merging adifferent classification algorithm, but theperformance of ensemble algorithm suffered fromproblem of outlier, noise and core pointproblem ofdata from features selection process. In this paperwe combined core, outlier and noise data (COB forfeatures selection process for ensemble model. Theprocess of best feature selection with appropriateclassifier used particle of swarm optimization.

  4. Joys of Community Ensemble Playing: The Case of the Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Yuan-Mei; Kao, Kai-Chi

    2012-01-01

    The Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble (HREE) is a community music ensemble supported by Tainan Culture Centre in Taiwan. With enjoyment and friendship as its primary goals, it aims to facilitate the joys of ensemble playing and the spirit of social networking. This article highlights the key aspects of HREE's development in its first two years…

  5. Accounting for three sources of uncertainty in ensemble hydrological forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiboult, Antoine; Anctil, François; Boucher, Marie-Amélie

    2016-05-01

    Seeking more accuracy and reliability, the hydrometeorological community has developed several tools to decipher the different sources of uncertainty in relevant modeling processes. Among them, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), multimodel approaches and meteorological ensemble forecasting proved to have the capability to improve upon deterministic hydrological forecast. This study aims to untangle the sources of uncertainty by studying the combination of these tools and assessing their respective contribution to the overall forecast quality. Each of these components is able to capture a certain aspect of the total uncertainty and improve the forecast at different stages in the forecasting process by using different means. Their combination outperforms any of the tools used solely. The EnKF is shown to contribute largely to the ensemble accuracy and dispersion, indicating that the initial conditions uncertainty is dominant. However, it fails to maintain the required dispersion throughout the entire forecast horizon and needs to be supported by a multimodel approach to take into account structural uncertainty. Moreover, the multimodel approach contributes to improving the general forecasting performance and prevents this performance from falling into the model selection pitfall since models differ strongly in their ability. Finally, the use of probabilistic meteorological forcing was found to contribute mostly to long lead time reliability. Particular attention needs to be paid to the combination of the tools, especially in the EnKF tuning to avoid overlapping in error deciphering.

  6. ApkCombiner: Combining Multiple Android Apps to Support Inter-App Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Li; Bartel, Alexandre; Bissyande, Tegawendé François D Assise; Klein, Jacques; Le Traon, Yves

    2015-01-01

    Part 8: Mobile and Cloud Services Security International audience Android apps are made of components which can leak information between one another using the ICC mechanism. With the growing momentum of Android, a number of research contributions have led to tools for the intra-app analysis of Android apps. Unfortunately, these state-of-the-art approaches, and the associated tools, have long left out the security flaws that arise across the boundaries of single apps, in the interaction ...

  7. A Hybrid RBF-SVM Ensemble Approach for Data Mining Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Govindarajan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available One of the major developments in machine learning in the past decade is the ensemble method, which finds highly accurate classifier by combining many moderately accurate component classifiers. This paper addresses using an ensemble of classification methods for data mining applications like intrusion detection, direct marketing, and signature verification. In this research work, new hybrid classification method is proposed for heterogeneous ensemble classifiers using arcing and their performances are analyzed in terms of accuracy. A Classifier ensemble is designed using a Radial Basis Function (RBF and Support Vector Machine (SVM as base classifiers. Here, modified training sets are formed by resampling from original training set; classifiers constructed using these training sets and then combined by voting. The proposed RBF-SVM hybrid system is superior to individual approach for intrusion detection, direct marketing, and signature verification in terms of classification accuracy.

  8. Employing Neocognitron Neural Network Base Ensemble Classifiers To Enhance Efficiency Of Classification In Handwritten Digit Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neera Saxena

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an ensemble of neo-cognitron neural network base classifiers to enhance the accuracy of the system, along the experimental results. The method offers lesser computational preprocessing in comparison to other ensemble techniques as it ex-preempts feature extraction process before feeding the data into base classifiers. This is achieved by the basic nature of neo-cognitron, it is a multilayer feed-forward neural network. Ensemble of such base classifiers gives class labels for each pattern that in turn is combined to give the final class label for that pattern. The purpose of this paper is not only to exemplify learning behaviour of neo-cognitron as base classifiers, but also to purport better fashion to combine neural network based ensemble classifiers.

  9. Performance comparison of meso-scale ensemble wave forecasting systems for Mediterranean sea states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzutto, Paolo; Saulter, Andrew; Cavaleri, Luigi; Bunney, Christopher; Marcucci, Francesca; Torrisi, Lucio; Sebastianelli, Stefano

    2016-08-01

    This paper compares the performance of two wind and wave short range ensemble forecast systems for the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, it describes a six month verification experiment carried out by the U.K. Met Office and Italian Air Force Meteorological Service, based on their respective systems: the Met Office Global-Regional Ensemble Prediction System and the Nettuno Ensemble Prediction System. The latter is the ensemble version of the operational Nettuno forecast system. Attention is focused on the differences between the two implementations (e.g. grid resolution and initial ensemble members sampling) and their effects on the prediction skill. The cross-verification of the two ensemble systems shows that from a macroscopic point of view the differences cancel out, suggesting similar skill. More in-depth analysis indicates that the Nettuno wave forecast is better resolved but, on average, slightly less reliable than the Met Office product. Assessment of the added value of the ensemble techniques at short range in comparison with the deterministic forecast from Nettuno, reveals that adopting the ensemble approach has small, but substantive, advantages.

  10. Contribution Analysis of BDS/GPS Combined Orbit Determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qin

    2016-07-01

    BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) does not have the ability of global navigation and positioning currently. The whole tracking observation of satellite orbit and the geometry of reference station are not perfect. These situations influence the accuracy of satellite orbit determination. Based on the theory and method of dynamic orbit determination, the analytical contribution of multi-GNSS combined orbit determination to the solution precision of parameters was derived. And using the measured data, the statistical contribution of BDS/GPS combined orbit determination to the solution precision of orbit and clock error was analyzed. The results show that the contribution of combined orbit determination to the solution precision of the common parameters between different systems was significant. The solution precisions of the orbit and clock error were significantly improved except GEO satellites. The statistical contribution of BDS/GPS combined orbit determination to the precision of BDS satellite orbit, the RMS of BDS satellite clock error and the RMS of receiver clock error were 36.21%, 26.88% and 20.88% respectively. Especially, the contribution to the clock error of receivers which were in the area with few visible satellites was particularly significant. And the statistical contribution was 45.95%.

  11. NASA combined pulsed neutron experiment for bulk elemental analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    All the component parts of the prototype Combined Pulsed Neutron Experiment system were completed during 1976 and the components fabricated elsewhere were shipped to Idaho National Engineering Laboratory for integration into the system. The component parts were assembled and tested, and the software was checked out and debugged

  12. Repeater Analysis for Combining Information from Different Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberman, Shelby; Yao, Lili

    2015-01-01

    Admission decisions frequently rely on multiple assessments. As a consequence, it is important to explore rational approaches to combine the information from different educational tests. For example, U.S. graduate schools usually receive both TOEFL iBT® scores and GRE® General scores of foreign applicants for admission; however, little guidance…

  13. EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

    KAUST Repository

    Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni

    2014-04-26

    Motivation: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are considered the most frequently occurring DNA sequence variations. Several computational methods have been proposed for the classification of missense SNPs to neutral and disease associated. However, existing computational approaches fail to select relevant features by choosing them arbitrarily without sufficient documentation. Moreover, they are limited to the problem ofmissing values, imbalance between the learning datasets and most of them do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel evolutionary embedded algorithm to locate close to optimal Support Vector Regression models. In its second step, these models are combined to extract a universal predictor, which is less prone to overfitting issues, systematizes the rebalancing of the learning sets and uses an internal approach for solving the missing values problem without loss of information. Confidence scores support all the predictions and the model becomes tunable by modifying the classification thresholds. An extensive study was performed for collecting the most relevant features for the problem of classifying SNPs, and a superset of 88 features was constructed. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms well-known algorithms in terms of classification performance in the examined datasets. Finally, the proposed algorithmic framework was able to uncover the significant role of certain features such as the solvent accessibility feature, and the top-scored predictions were further validated by linking them with disease phenotypes. © The Author 2014.

  14. Ensemble Kalman filter versus ensemble smoother for assessing hydraulic conductivity via tracer test data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Crestani

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity K in natural aquifers is important for predicting the transport of dissolved compounds. Especially in the nonreactive case, the plume evolution is mainly controlled by the heterogeneity of K. At the local scale, the spatial distribution of K can be inferred by combining the Lagrangian formulation of the transport with a Kalman-filter-based technique and assimilating a sequence of time-lapse concentration C measurements, which, for example, can be evaluated on site through the application of a geophysical method. The objective of this work is to compare the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and the ensemble smoother (ES capabilities to retrieve the hydraulic conductivity spatial distribution in a groundwater flow and transport modeling framework. The application refers to a two-dimensional synthetic aquifer in which a tracer test is simulated. Moreover, since Kalman-filter-based methods are optimal only if each of the involved variables fit to a Gaussian probability density function (pdf and since this condition may not be met by some of the flow and transport state variables, issues related to the non-Gaussianity of the variables are analyzed and different transformation of the pdfs are considered in order to evaluate their influence on the performance of the methods. The results show that the EnKF reproduces with good accuracy the hydraulic conductivity field, outperforming the ES regardless of the pdf of the concentrations.

  15. Combining Formal Logic and Machine Learning for Sentiment Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Niklas Christoffer; Villadsen, Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a formal logical method for deep structural analysis of the syntactical properties of texts using machine learning techniques for efficient syntactical tagging. To evaluate the method it is used for entity level sentiment analysis as an alternative to pure machine learning...

  16. Role of different Pd/Pt ensembles in determining CO chemisorption on Au-based bimetallic alloys: A first-principles study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, Hyung Chul, E-mail: hchahm@kist.re.kr [Department of Chemical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Fuel Cell Research Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Manogaran, Dhivya [Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Hwang, Gyeong S., E-mail: gshwang@che.utexas.edu [Department of Chemical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Han, Jonghee; Kim, Hyoung-Juhn; Nam, Suk Woo; Lim, Tae Hoon [Fuel Cell Research Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-03-30

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • Pd ensembles greatly reduce CO adsorption energy as compared to Pt ensembles. • The steeper potential energy surface of CO adsorption in Pd(1 1 1) than in Pt(1 1 1). • Switch of binding site preference in ensembles is key to determining CO adsorption. • Opposite electronic (ligand) effect in Pd and Pt ensemble. - Abstract: Using spin-polarized density functional calculations, we investigate the role of different Pd/Pt ensembles in determining CO chemisorption on Au-based bimetallic alloys through a study of the energetics, charge transfer, geometric and electronic structures of CO on various Pd/Pt ensembles (monomer/dimer/trimer/tetramer). We find that the effect of Pd ensembles on the reduction of CO chemisorption energy is much larger than the Pt ensemble case. In particular, small-sized Pd ensembles like monomer show a substantial reduction of CO chemisorption energy compared to the pure Pd (1 1 1) surface, while there are no significant size and shape effects of Pt ensembles on CO chemisorption energy. This is related to two factors: (1) the steeper potential energy surface (PES) of CO in Pd (1 1 1) than in Pt (1 1 1), indicating that the effect of switch of binding site preference on CO chemisorption energy is much larger in Pd ensembles than in Pt ensembles, and (2) down-shift of d-band in Pd ensembles/up-shift of d-band in Pt ensembles as compared to the corresponding pure Pd (1 1 1)/Pt (1 1 1) surfaces, suggesting more reduced activity of Pd ensembles toward CO adsorption than the Pt ensemble case. We also present the different bonding mechanism of CO on Pd/Pt ensembles by the analysis of orbital resolved density of state.

  17. Role of different Pd/Pt ensembles in determining CO chemisorption on Au-based bimetallic alloys: A first-principles study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • Pd ensembles greatly reduce CO adsorption energy as compared to Pt ensembles. • The steeper potential energy surface of CO adsorption in Pd(1 1 1) than in Pt(1 1 1). • Switch of binding site preference in ensembles is key to determining CO adsorption. • Opposite electronic (ligand) effect in Pd and Pt ensemble. - Abstract: Using spin-polarized density functional calculations, we investigate the role of different Pd/Pt ensembles in determining CO chemisorption on Au-based bimetallic alloys through a study of the energetics, charge transfer, geometric and electronic structures of CO on various Pd/Pt ensembles (monomer/dimer/trimer/tetramer). We find that the effect of Pd ensembles on the reduction of CO chemisorption energy is much larger than the Pt ensemble case. In particular, small-sized Pd ensembles like monomer show a substantial reduction of CO chemisorption energy compared to the pure Pd (1 1 1) surface, while there are no significant size and shape effects of Pt ensembles on CO chemisorption energy. This is related to two factors: (1) the steeper potential energy surface (PES) of CO in Pd (1 1 1) than in Pt (1 1 1), indicating that the effect of switch of binding site preference on CO chemisorption energy is much larger in Pd ensembles than in Pt ensembles, and (2) down-shift of d-band in Pd ensembles/up-shift of d-band in Pt ensembles as compared to the corresponding pure Pd (1 1 1)/Pt (1 1 1) surfaces, suggesting more reduced activity of Pd ensembles toward CO adsorption than the Pt ensemble case. We also present the different bonding mechanism of CO on Pd/Pt ensembles by the analysis of orbital resolved density of state

  18. Probabilistic infrasound propagation using ensemble based atmospheric perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smets, Pieter; Evers, Läslo

    2015-04-01

    The state of the atmosphere is of utmost importance for infrasound propagation. In propagation modelling, still, the true state of the atmosphere is mainly represented by the analysis. The analysis is the best deterministic estimate of the atmosphere using a data assimilation system existing of a General Circulation Model (GCM). However, the analysis excludes error variances of both model and observations. In addition, the coarse resolution of GCM results in averaging of, e.g., clouds or gravity waves, over larger regions known as parameterisation. Consequentially, arrivals due to fine-scale structure in wind and temperature can be missing. Therefore, infrasound propagation including the atmospheric best-estimate error variances based on the ensemble model is proposed. The ensemble system exists of model perturbations with an amplitude comparable to analysis error estimates to obtain a probability density function rather than one specific state as obtained from a deterministic system. The best-estimate analysis error variances are described by a set of perturbations using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Data Assimilation (EDA) system. Probabilistic infrasound propagation using 3-D ray tracing is demonstrated by one year of mining activity, e.g., blasting, in Gällivare, northern Sweden, observed at infrasound array IS37 in Norway, part of the International Monitoring System (IMS) for verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Probabilistic infrasound propagation is compared with the standard deterministic result obtained using the analysis.

  19. Manufacturability analysis to combine additive and subtractive processes

    OpenAIRE

    Kerbrat, Olivier; MOGNOL, Pascal; Hascoët, Jean-Yves

    2010-01-01

    International audience; Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to estimate manufacturing complexity for both machining and layered manufacturing. The goal is to take into account manufacturing constraints at design stage in order to realize tools (dies and molds) by a combination of a subtractive process (high-speed machining) and an additive process (selective laser sintering). Design/methodology/approach - Manufacturability indexes are defined and calculated from th...

  20. Inserting Stress Analysis of Combined Hexagonal Aluminum Honeycombs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangcheng Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Two kinds of hexagonal aluminum honeycombs are tested to study their out-of-plane crushing behavior. In the tests, honeycomb samples, including single hexagonal aluminum honeycomb (SHAH samples and two stack-up combined hexagonal aluminum honeycombs (CHAH samples, are compressed at a fixed quasistatic loading rate. The results show that the inserting process of CHAH can erase the initial peak stress that occurred in SHAH. Meanwhile, energy-absorbing property of combined honeycomb samples is more beneficial than the one of single honeycomb sample with the same thickness if the two types of honeycomb samples are completely crushed. Then, the applicability of the existing theoretical model for single hexagonal honeycomb is discussed, and an area equivalent method is proposed to calculate the crushing stress for nearly regular hexagonal honeycombs. Furthermore, a semiempirical formula is proposed to calculate the inserting plateau stress of two stack-up CHAH, in which structural parameters and mechanics properties of base material are concerned. The results show that the predicted stresses of three kinds of two stack-up combined honeycombs are in good agreement with the experimental data. Based on this study, stress-displacement curve of aluminum honeycombs can be designed in detail, which is very beneficial to optimize the energy-absorbing structures in engineering fields.

  1. Ensemble prediction experiments using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Two methods for initialization of ensemble forecasts are compared, namely, singular vector (SV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The comparison is done for forecast lengths of up to 10 days with a three-level quasi-geostrophic (QG) atmospheric model in a perfect model scenario. Ten cases are randomly selected from 1982/1983 winter to 1993/1994 winter (from December to the following February). Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is adopted as a tool to measure the quality of the predicted ensembles on the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height. The results show that the forecast quality of ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP is higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range, based on the occurrence of weather re-gime transitions in Northern Hemisphere after about four days. Besides, the reliability of ensemble forecasts is evaluated by the Rank Histograms. The above conclusions confirm and extend those reached earlier by the authors, which stated that the introduction of CNOP improves the forecast skill under the condition that the analysis error belongs to a kind of fast-growing error by using a barotropic QG model.

  2. Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tong; Le Maître, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

    2016-08-01

    An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

  3. ENCORE: Software for Quantitative Ensemble Comparison.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Tiberti

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available There is increasing evidence that protein dynamics and conformational changes can play an important role in modulating biological function. As a result, experimental and computational methods are being developed, often synergistically, to study the dynamical heterogeneity of a protein or other macromolecules in solution. Thus, methods such as molecular dynamics simulations or ensemble refinement approaches have provided conformational ensembles that can be used to understand protein function and biophysics. These developments have in turn created a need for algorithms and software that can be used to compare structural ensembles in the same way as the root-mean-square-deviation is often used to compare static structures. Although a few such approaches have been proposed, these can be difficult to implement efficiently, hindering a broader applications and further developments. Here, we present an easily accessible software toolkit, called ENCORE, which can be used to compare conformational ensembles generated either from simulations alone or synergistically with experiments. ENCORE implements three previously described methods for ensemble comparison, that each can be used to quantify the similarity between conformational ensembles by estimating the overlap between the probability distributions that underlie them. We demonstrate the kinds of insights that can be obtained by providing examples of three typical use-cases: comparing ensembles generated with different molecular force fields, assessing convergence in molecular simulations, and calculating differences and similarities in structural ensembles refined with various sources of experimental data. We also demonstrate efficient computational scaling for typical analyses, and robustness against both the size and sampling of the ensembles. ENCORE is freely available and extendable, integrates with the established MDAnalysis software package, reads ensemble data in many common formats, and can

  4. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 1: The visualization tool Met.3D (version 1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rautenhaus

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We present "Met.3D", a new open-source tool for the interactive three-dimensional (3-D visualization of numerical ensemble weather predictions. The tool has been developed to support weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns; however, it is applicable to further forecasting, research and teaching activities. Our work approaches challenging topics related to the visual analysis of numerical atmospheric model output – 3-D visualization, ensemble visualization and how both can be used in a meaningful way suited to weather forecasting. Met.3D builds a bridge from proven 2-D visualization methods commonly used in meteorology to 3-D visualization by combining both visualization types in a 3-D context. We address the issue of spatial perception in the 3-D view and present approaches to using the ensemble to allow the user to assess forecast uncertainty. Interactivity is key to our approach. Met.3D uses modern graphics technology to achieve interactive visualization on standard consumer hardware. The tool supports forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF and can operate directly on ECMWF hybrid sigma-pressure level grids. We describe the employed visualization algorithms, and analyse the impact of the ECMWF grid topology on computing 3-D ensemble statistical quantities. Our techniques are demonstrated with examples from the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment campaign.

  5. Combined photon-neutron radiography for nondestructive analysis of materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combined photon-neutron radiography was investigated as a nondestructive method to determine the shape and material composition of complex objects. A system consisting of photon and neutron sources in a cone beam configuration and a 2D detector array was modeled using the MCNP5 code. Photon-to-neutron transmission ratios were determined for a car engine using 0.1, 0.5, 2.5 MeV neutrons and 0.2, 0.5, 1 MeV photons. Focusing on inherent difference between neutron and photon interactions with matter, it was possible to classify materials within the scanned object. (author)

  6. An adaptively fast ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and its applications to rolling element bearing fault diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Xiaoming; Zhou, Jianzhong; Xu, Yanhe; Zhu, Wenlong; Li, Chaoshun

    2015-10-01

    Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) represents a significant improvement over the original empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method for eliminating the mode mixing problem. However, the added white noises generate some tough problems including the high computational cost, the determination of the two critical parameters (the amplitude of the added white noise and the number of ensemble trials), and the contamination of the residue noise in the signal reconstruction. To solve these problems, an adaptively fast EEMD (AFEEMD) method combined with complementary EEMD (CEEMD) is proposed in this paper. In the proposed method, the two critical parameters are respectively fixed as 0.01 times standard deviation of the original signal and two ensemble trials. Instead, the upper frequency limit of the added white noise is the key parameter which needs to be prescribed beforehand. Unlike the original EEMD method, only two high-frequency white noises are added to the signal to be investigated with anti-phase in AFEEMD. Furthermore, an index termed relative root-mean-square error is employed for the adaptive selection of the proper upper frequency limit of the added white noises. Simulation test and vibration signals based fault diagnosis of rolling element bearing under different fault types are utilized to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The analysis results indicate that the AFEEMD method represents a sound improvement over the original EEMD method, and has strong practicability.

  7. Visualization and Nowcasting for Aviation using online verified ensemble weather radar extrapolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaltenboeck, Rudolf; Kerschbaum, Markus; Hennermann, Karin; Mayer, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    Nowcasting of precipitation events, especially thunderstorm events or winter storms, has high impact on flight safety and efficiency for air traffic management. Future strategic planning by air traffic control will result in circumnavigation of potential hazardous areas, reduction of load around efficiency hot spots by offering alternatives, increase of handling capacity, anticipation of avoidance manoeuvres and increase of awareness before dangerous areas are entered by aircraft. To facilitate this rapid update forecasts of location, intensity, size, movement and development of local storms are necessary. Weather radar data deliver precipitation analysis of high temporal and spatial resolution close to real time by using clever scanning strategies. These data are the basis to generate rapid update forecasts in a time frame up to 2 hours and more for applications in aviation meteorological service provision, such as optimizing safety and economic impact in the context of sub-scale phenomena. On the basis of tracking radar echoes by correlation the movement vectors of successive weather radar images are calculated. For every new successive radar image a set of ensemble precipitation fields is collected by using different parameter sets like pattern match size, different time steps, filter methods and an implementation of history of tracking vectors and plausibility checks. This method considers the uncertainty in rain field displacement and different scales in time and space. By validating manually a set of case studies, the best verification method and skill score is defined and implemented into an online-verification scheme which calculates the optimized forecasts for different time steps and different areas by using different extrapolation ensemble members. To get information about the quality and reliability of the extrapolation process additional information of data quality (e.g. shielding in Alpine areas) is extrapolated and combined with an extrapolation

  8. Probability Maps for the Visualization of Assimilation Ensemble Flow Data

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2015-05-25

    Ocean forecasts nowadays are created by running ensemble simulations in combination with data assimilation techniques. Most of these techniques resample the ensemble members after each assimilation cycle. This means that in a time series, after resampling, every member can follow up on any of the members before resampling. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially with the number of assimilation cycles. In general a single possible path is not of interest but only the probabilities that any point in space might be reached by a particle at some point in time. In this work we present an approach using probability-weighted piecewise particle trajectories to allow such a mapping interactively, instead of tracing quadrillions of individual particles. We achieve interactive rates by binning the domain and splitting up the tracing process into the individual assimilation cycles, so that particles that fall into the same bin after a cycle can be treated as a single particle with a larger probability as input for the next time step. As a result we loose the possibility to track individual particles, but can create probability maps for any desired seed at interactive rates.

  9. Informatics for analysis of nuclear experiments: TOUTATIX; Ensemble des moyens informatiques pour l`aide a l`analyse des experiences de physique nucleaire: TOUTATIX

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabasse, J.F.; Du, S.; Penillault, G.; Tassan-Got, L.; Givort, M. [Services Techniques, Inst. de Physique Nucleaire, Paris-11 Univ., 91 - Orsay (France)

    1999-11-01

    For several years in connection with the migration towards UNIX system, software tools have been developed in the laboratory. They allow the nuclear physicist community to achieve the complete analysis of experimental data. They comply with the requirements imposed by the development of multi-detectors. A special attention has been devoted to ergonomic aspects and configuration possibilities. (authors) 1 fig.

  10. Ensemble polarimetric SAR image classification based on contextual sparse representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lamei; Wang, Xiao; Zou, Bin; Qiao, Zhijun

    2016-05-01

    Polarimetric SAR image interpretation has become one of the most interesting topics, in which the construction of the reasonable and effective technique of image classification is of key importance. Sparse representation represents the data using the most succinct sparse atoms of the over-complete dictionary and the advantages of sparse representation also have been confirmed in the field of PolSAR classification. However, it is not perfect, like the ordinary classifier, at different aspects. So ensemble learning is introduced to improve the issue, which makes a plurality of different learners training and obtained the integrated results by combining the individual learner to get more accurate and ideal learning results. Therefore, this paper presents a polarimetric SAR image classification method based on the ensemble learning of sparse representation to achieve the optimal classification.

  11. Statistical properties of daily ensemble variables in the Chinese stock markets

    CERN Document Server

    Gu, G F; Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2006-01-01

    We study dynamical behavior of the Chinese stock markets by investigating the statistical properties of daily ensemble returns and varieties defined respectively as the mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble daily price returns of a portfolio of stocks traded in China's stock markets on a given day. The distribution of the daily ensemble returns has an exponential form in the center and power-law tails, while the variety distribution is log-Gaussian in the bulk followed by a power-law tail for large varieties. Based on detrended fluctuation analysis, R/S analysis and modified R/S analysis, we find evidence of long memory in the ensemble returns and strong evidence of long memory in the evolution of variety.

  12. Statistical properties of daily ensemble variables in the Chinese stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2007-09-01

    We study dynamical behavior of the Chinese stock markets by investigating the statistical properties of daily ensemble return and variety defined, respectively, as the mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble daily price return of a portfolio of stocks traded in China's stock markets on a given day. The distribution of the daily ensemble return has an exponential form in the center and power-law tails, while the variety distribution is lognormal in the bulk followed by a power-law tail for large variety. Based on detrended fluctuation analysis, R/S analysis and modified R/S analysis, we find evidence of long memory in the ensemble return and strong evidence of long memory in the evolution of variety.

  13. An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandrini, S.; Pinson, P.; Hagedorn, R.; Decimi, G.; Sperati, S.

    2011-02-01

    The wind power forecasts of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast applied in this study is based on meteorological models that provide the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. For this purpose a training of a Neural Network (NN) to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has been performed. One wind farm has been examined located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). First we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by the combination of models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error (normalized by nominal power) of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Finally we have focused on the possibility of using the ensemble model system (EPS by ECMWF) to estimate the hourly, three days ahead, power forecast accuracy. Contingency diagram between RMSE of the deterministic power forecast and the ensemble members spread of wind forecast have been produced. From this first analysis it seems that ensemble spread could be used as an indicator of the forecast's accuracy at least for the first three days ahead period.

  14. Ensemble learned vaccination uptake prediction using web search queries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Dalum; Lioma, Christina; Mølbak, Kåre

    2016-01-01

    We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official...... vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake eff?ectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields comparative performance. To our knowledge, this is the ?first study to predict vaccination uptake...

  15. Combining microsimulation and spatial interaction models for retail location analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakaya, Tomoki; Fotheringham, A. Stewart; Hanaoka, Kazumasa; Clarke, Graham; Ballas, Dimitris; Yano, Keiji

    2007-12-01

    Although the disaggregation of consumers is crucial in understanding the fragmented markets that are dominant in many developed countries, it is not always straightforward to carry out such disaggregation within conventional retail modelling frameworks due to the limitations of data. In particular, consumer grouping based on sampled data is not assured to link with the other statistics that are vital in estimating sampling biases and missing variables in the sampling survey. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a useful combination of spatial interaction modelling and microsimulation approaches for the reliable estimation of retail interactions based on a sample survey of consumer behaviour being linked with other areal statistics. We demonstrate this approach by building an operational retail interaction model to estimate expenditure flows from households to retail stores in a local city in Japan, Kusatsu City.

  16. An estimation of Erinaceidae phylogeny: a combined analysis approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai He

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Erinaceidae is a family of small mammals that include the spiny hedgehogs (Erinaceinae and the silky-furred moonrats and gymnures (Galericinae. These animals are widely distributed across Eurasia and Africa, from the tundra to the tropics and the deserts to damp forests. The importance of these animals lies in the fact that they are the oldest known living placental mammals, which are well represented in the fossil record, a rarity fact given their size and vulnerability to destruction during fossilization. Although the Family has been well studied, their phylogenetic relationships remain controversial. To test previous phylogenetic hypotheses, we combined molecular and morphological data sets, including representatives of all the genera. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We included in the analyses 3,218 bp mitochondrial genes, one hundred and thirty-five morphological characters, twenty-two extant erinaceid taxa, and five outgroup taxa. Phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed using both partitioned and combined data sets. As in previous analyses, our results strongly support the monophyly of both subfamilies (Galericinae and Erinaceinae, the Hylomys group (to include Neotetracus and Neohylomys, and a sister-relationship of Atelerix and Erinaceus. As well, we verified that the extremely long branch lengths within the Galericinae are consistent with their fossil records. Not surprisingly, we found significant incongruence between the phylogenetic signals of the genes and the morphological characters, specifically in the case of Hylomys parvus, Mesechinus, and relationships between Hemiechinus and Paraechinus. CONCLUSIONS: Although we discovered new clues to understanding the evolutionary relationships within the Erinaceidae, our results nonetheless, strongly suggest that more robust analyses employing more complete taxon sampling (to include fossils and multiple unlinked genes would greatly enhance our understanding of the

  17. FMRI group analysis combining effect estimates and their variances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Gang; Saad, Ziad S; Nath, Audrey R; Beauchamp, Michael S; Cox, Robert W

    2012-03-01

    Conventional functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) group analysis makes two key assumptions that are not always justified. First, the data from each subject is condensed into a single number per voxel, under the assumption that within-subject variance for the effect of interest is the same across all subjects or is negligible relative to the cross-subject variance. Second, it is assumed that all data values are drawn from the same Gaussian distribution with no outliers. We propose an approach that does not make such strong assumptions, and present a computationally efficient frequentist approach to FMRI group analysis, which we term mixed-effects multilevel analysis (MEMA), that incorporates both the variability across subjects and the precision estimate of each effect of interest from individual subject analyses. On average, the more accurate tests result in higher statistical power, especially when conventional variance assumptions do not hold, or in the presence of outliers. In addition, various heterogeneity measures are available with MEMA that may assist the investigator in further improving the modeling. Our method allows group effect t-tests and comparisons among conditions and among groups. In addition, it has the capability to incorporate subject-specific covariates such as age, IQ, or behavioral data. Simulations were performed to illustrate power comparisons and the capability of controlling type I errors among various significance testing methods, and the results indicated that the testing statistic we adopted struck a good balance between power gain and type I error control. Our approach is instantiated in an open-source, freely distributed program that may be used on any dataset stored in the universal neuroimaging file transfer (NIfTI) format. To date, the main impediment for more accurate testing that incorporates both within- and cross-subject variability has been the high computational cost. Our efficient implementation makes this approach

  18. FMRI group analysis combining effect estimates and their variances

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Gang; Saad, Ziad S.; Nath, Audrey R.; Michael S Beauchamp; Cox, Robert W.

    2011-01-01

    Conventional functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) group analysis makes two key assumptions that are not always justified. First, the data from each subject is condensed into a single number per voxel, under the assumption that within-subject variance for the effect of interest is the same across all subjects or is negligible relative to the cross-subject variance. Second, it is assumed that all data values are drawn from the same Gaussian distribution with no outliers. We propose an a...

  19. Nonequilibrium representative ensembles for isolated quantum systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An isolated quantum system is considered, prepared in a nonequilibrium initial state. In order to uniquely define the system dynamics, one has to construct a representative statistical ensemble. From the principle of least action it follows that the role of the evolution generator is played by a grand Hamiltonian, but not merely by its energy part. A theorem is proved expressing the commutators of field operators with operator products through variational derivatives of these products. A consequence of this theorem is the equivalence of the variational equations for field operators with the Heisenberg equations for the latter. A finite quantum system cannot equilibrate in the strict sense. But it can tend to a quasi-stationary state characterized by ergodic averages and the appropriate representative ensemble depending on initial conditions. Microcanonical ensemble, arising in the eigenstate thermalization, is just a particular case of representative ensembles. Quasi-stationary representative ensembles are defined by the principle of minimal information. The latter also implies the minimization of an effective thermodynamic potential. -- Highlights: → The evolution of a nonequilibrium isolated quantum system is considered. → The grand Hamiltonian is shown to be the evolution generator. → A theorem is proved connecting operator commutators with variational derivatives. → Quasi-stationary states are described by representative ensembles. → These ensembles, generally, depend on initial conditions.

  20. Preliminary Assessment of Tecplot Chorus for Analyzing Ensemble of CTH Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agelastos, Anthony Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stevenson, Joel O. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Attaway, Stephen W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peterson, David

    2015-04-01

    The exploration of large parameter spaces in search of problem solution and uncertainty quantifcation produces very large ensembles of data. Processing ensemble data will continue to require more resources as simulation complexity and HPC platform throughput increase. More tools are needed to help provide rapid insight into these data sets to decrease manual processing time by the analyst and to increase knowledge the data can provide. One such tool is Tecplot Chorus, whose strengths are visualizing ensemble metadata and linked images. This report contains the analysis and conclusions from evaluating Tecplot Chorus with an example problem that is relevant to Sandia National Laboratories.

  1. Ensemble prediction of floods – catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Reszler

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the uncertainty of flood forecasts by ensemble methods is becoming increasingly important for operational purposes. The aim of this paper is to examine how the ensemble distribution of precipitation forecasts propagates in the catchment system, and to interpret the flood forecast probabilities relative to the forecast errors. We use the 622 km2 Kamp catchment in Austria as an example where a comprehensive data set, including a 500 yr and a 1000 yr flood, is available. A spatially-distributed continuous rainfall-runoff model is used along with ensemble and deterministic precipitation forecasts that combine rain gauge data, radar data and the forecast fields of the ALADIN and ECMWF numerical weather prediction models. The analyses indicate that, for long lead times, the variability of the precipitation ensemble is amplified as it propagates through the catchment system as a result of non-linear catchment response. In contrast, for lead times shorter than the catchment lag time (e.g. 12 h and less, the variability of the precipitation ensemble is decreased as the forecasts are mainly controlled by observed upstream runoff and observed precipitation. Assuming that all ensemble members are equally likely, the statistical analyses for five flood events at the Kamp showed that the ensemble spread of the flood forecasts is always narrower than the distribution of the forecast errors. This is because the ensemble forecasts focus on the uncertainty in forecast precipitation as the dominant source of uncertainty, and other sources of uncertainty are not accounted for. However, a number of analyses, including Relative Operating Characteristic diagrams, indicate that the ensemble spread is a useful indicator to assess potential forecast errors for lead times larger than 12 h.

  2. MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.

  3. Causal modeling using network ensemble simulations of genetic and gene expression data predicts genes involved in rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Heming; McDonagh, Paul D; Bienkowska, Jadwiga; Cashorali, Tanya; Runge, Karl; Miller, Robert E; Decaprio, Dave; Church, Bruce; Roubenoff, Ronenn; Khalil, Iya G; Carulli, John

    2011-03-01

    Tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) is a key regulator of inflammation and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). TNF-α blocker therapies can be very effective for a substantial number of patients, but fail to work in one third of patients who show no or minimal response. It is therefore necessary to discover new molecular intervention points involved in TNF-α blocker treatment of rheumatoid arthritis patients. We describe a data analysis strategy for predicting gene expression measures that are critical for rheumatoid arthritis using a combination of comprehensive genotyping, whole blood gene expression profiles and the component clinical measures of the arthritis Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28) score. Two separate network ensembles, each comprised of 1024 networks, were built from molecular measures from subjects before and 14 weeks after treatment with TNF-α blocker. The network ensemble built from pre-treated data captures TNF-α dependent mechanistic information, while the ensemble built from data collected under TNF-α blocker treatment captures TNF-α independent mechanisms. In silico simulations of targeted, personalized perturbations of gene expression measures from both network ensembles identify transcripts in three broad categories. Firstly, 22 transcripts are identified to have new roles in modulating the DAS28 score; secondly, there are 6 transcripts that could be alternative targets to TNF-α blocker therapies, including CD86--a component of the signaling axis targeted by Abatacept (CTLA4-Ig), and finally, 59 transcripts that are predicted to modulate the count of tender or swollen joints but not sufficiently enough to have a significant impact on DAS28. PMID:21423713

  4. Causal modeling using network ensemble simulations of genetic and gene expression data predicts genes involved in rheumatoid arthritis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heming Xing

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α is a key regulator of inflammation and rheumatoid arthritis (RA. TNF-α blocker therapies can be very effective for a substantial number of patients, but fail to work in one third of patients who show no or minimal response. It is therefore necessary to discover new molecular intervention points involved in TNF-α blocker treatment of rheumatoid arthritis patients. We describe a data analysis strategy for predicting gene expression measures that are critical for rheumatoid arthritis using a combination of comprehensive genotyping, whole blood gene expression profiles and the component clinical measures of the arthritis Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28 score. Two separate network ensembles, each comprised of 1024 networks, were built from molecular measures from subjects before and 14 weeks after treatment with TNF-α blocker. The network ensemble built from pre-treated data captures TNF-α dependent mechanistic information, while the ensemble built from data collected under TNF-α blocker treatment captures TNF-α independent mechanisms. In silico simulations of targeted, personalized perturbations of gene expression measures from both network ensembles identify transcripts in three broad categories. Firstly, 22 transcripts are identified to have new roles in modulating the DAS28 score; secondly, there are 6 transcripts that could be alternative targets to TNF-α blocker therapies, including CD86--a component of the signaling axis targeted by Abatacept (CTLA4-Ig, and finally, 59 transcripts that are predicted to modulate the count of tender or swollen joints but not sufficiently enough to have a significant impact on DAS28.

  5. Causal Modeling Using Network Ensemble Simulations of Genetic and Gene Expression Data Predicts Genes Involved in Rheumatoid Arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Heming; McDonagh, Paul D.; Bienkowska, Jadwiga; Cashorali, Tanya; Runge, Karl; Miller, Robert E.; DeCaprio, Dave; Church, Bruce; Roubenoff, Ronenn; Khalil, Iya G.; Carulli, John

    2011-01-01

    Tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) is a key regulator of inflammation and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). TNF-α blocker therapies can be very effective for a substantial number of patients, but fail to work in one third of patients who show no or minimal response. It is therefore necessary to discover new molecular intervention points involved in TNF-α blocker treatment of rheumatoid arthritis patients. We describe a data analysis strategy for predicting gene expression measures that are critical for rheumatoid arthritis using a combination of comprehensive genotyping, whole blood gene expression profiles and the component clinical measures of the arthritis Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28) score. Two separate network ensembles, each comprised of 1024 networks, were built from molecular measures from subjects before and 14 weeks after treatment with TNF-α blocker. The network ensemble built from pre-treated data captures TNF-α dependent mechanistic information, while the ensemble built from data collected under TNF-α blocker treatment captures TNF-α independent mechanisms. In silico simulations of targeted, personalized perturbations of gene expression measures from both network ensembles identify transcripts in three broad categories. Firstly, 22 transcripts are identified to have new roles in modulating the DAS28 score; secondly, there are 6 transcripts that could be alternative targets to TNF-α blocker therapies, including CD86 - a component of the signaling axis targeted by Abatacept (CTLA4-Ig), and finally, 59 transcripts that are predicted to modulate the count of tender or swollen joints but not sufficiently enough to have a significant impact on DAS28. PMID:21423713

  6. Work producing reservoirs: Stochastic thermodynamics with generalized Gibbs ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horowitz, Jordan M; Esposito, Massimiliano

    2016-08-01

    We develop a consistent stochastic thermodynamics for environments composed of thermodynamic reservoirs in an external conservative force field, that is, environments described by the generalized or Gibbs canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that small systems weakly coupled to such reservoirs exchange both heat and work by verifying a local detailed balance relation for the induced stochastic dynamics. Based on this analysis, we help to rationalize the observation that nonthermal reservoirs can increase the efficiency of thermodynamic heat engines. PMID:27627226

  7. Work producing reservoirs: Stochastic thermodynamics with generalized Gibbs ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horowitz, Jordan M.; Esposito, Massimiliano

    2016-08-01

    We develop a consistent stochastic thermodynamics for environments composed of thermodynamic reservoirs in an external conservative force field, that is, environments described by the generalized or Gibbs canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that small systems weakly coupled to such reservoirs exchange both heat and work by verifying a local detailed balance relation for the induced stochastic dynamics. Based on this analysis, we help to rationalize the observation that nonthermal reservoirs can increase the efficiency of thermodynamic heat engines.

  8. Improved validation of IDP ensembles by one-bond Cα–Hα scalar couplings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gapsys, Vytautas [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Computational Biomolecular Dynamics Group (Germany); Narayanan, Raghavendran L.; Xiang, ShengQi [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Department for NMR-Based Structural Biology (Germany); Groot, Bert L. de [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Computational Biomolecular Dynamics Group (Germany); Zweckstetter, Markus, E-mail: markus.zweckstetter@dzne.de [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Department for NMR-Based Structural Biology (Germany)

    2015-11-15

    Intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) are best described by ensembles of conformations and a variety of approaches have been developed to determine IDP ensembles. Because of the large number of conformations, however, cross-validation of the determined ensembles by independent experimental data is crucial. The {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} coupling constant is particularly suited for cross-validation, because it has a large magnitude and mostly depends on the often less accessible dihedral angle ψ. Here, we reinvestigated the connection between {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} values and protein backbone dihedral angles. We show that accurate amino-acid specific random coil values of the {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} coupling constant, in combination with a reparameterized empirical Karplus-type equation, allow for reliable cross-validation of molecular ensembles of IDPs.

  9. A variational ensemble scheme for noisy image data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yin; Robinson, Cordelia; Heitz, Dominique; Mémin, Etienne

    2014-05-01

    Data assimilation techniques aim at recovering a system state variables trajectory denoted as X, along time from partially observed noisy measurements of the system denoted as Y. These procedures, which couple dynamics and noisy measurements of the system, fulfill indeed a twofold objective. On one hand, they provide a denoising - or reconstruction - procedure of the data through a given model framework and on the other hand, they provide estimation procedures for unknown parameters of the dynamics. A standard variational data assimilation problem can be formulated as the minimization of the following objective function with respect to the initial discrepancy, η, from the background initial guess: δ« J(η(x)) = 1∥Xb (x) - X (t ,x)∥2 + 1 tf∥H(X (t,x ))- Y (t,x)∥2dt. 2 0 0 B 2 t0 R (1) where the observation operator H links the state variable and the measurements. The cost function can be interpreted as the log likelihood function associated to the a posteriori distribution of the state given the past history of measurements and the background. In this work, we aim at studying ensemble based optimal control strategies for data assimilation. Such formulation nicely combines the ingredients of ensemble Kalman filters and variational data assimilation (4DVar). It is also formulated as the minimization of the objective function (1), but similarly to ensemble filter, it introduces in its objective function an empirical ensemble-based background-error covariance defined as: B ≡ )(Xb - )T>. (2) Thus, it works in an off-line smoothing mode rather than on the fly like sequential filters. Such resulting ensemble variational data assimilation technique corresponds to a relatively new family of methods [1,2,3]. It presents two main advantages: first, it does not require anymore to construct the adjoint of the dynamics tangent linear operator, which is a considerable advantage with respect to the method's implementation, and second, it enables the handling of a flow

  10. Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xian-Zhi

    2016-02-01

    Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula.

  11. Mass Conservation and Positivity Preservation with Ensemble-type Kalman Filter Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Tijana; McLaughlin, Dennis B.; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Maintaining conservative physical laws numerically has long been recognized as being important in the development of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In the broader context of data assimilation, concerted efforts to maintain conservation laws numerically and to understand the significance of doing so have begun only recently. In order to enforce physically based conservation laws of total mass and positivity in the ensemble Kalman filter, we incorporate constraints to ensure that the filter ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. We show that the analysis steps of ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) algorithm and ensemble Kalman filter algorithm (EnKF) can conserve the mass integral, but do not preserve positivity. Further, if localization is applied or if negative values are simply set to zero, then the total mass is not conserved either. In order to ensure mass conservation, a projection matrix that corrects for localization effects is constructed. In order to maintain both mass conservation and positivity preservation through the analysis step, we construct a data assimilation algorithms based on quadratic programming and ensemble Kalman filtering. Mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate constraints. Some simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. The results show clear improvements in both analyses and forecasts, particularly in the presence of localized features. Behavior of the algorithm is also tested in presence of model error.

  12. Mass Conservation and Positivity Preservation with Ensemble-type Kalman Filter Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Tijana; McLaughlin, Dennis B.; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin

    2014-05-01

    Maintaining conservative physical laws numerically has long been recognized as being important in the development of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In the broader context of data assimilation, concerted efforts to maintain conservation laws numerically and to understand the significance of doing so have begun only recently. In order to enforce physically based conservation laws of total mass and positivity in the ensemble Kalman filter, we incorporate constraints to ensure that the filter ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. We show that the analysis steps of ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) algorithm and ensemble Kalman filter algorithm (EnKF) can conserve the mass integral, but do not preserve positivity. Further, if localization is applied or if negative values are simply set to zero, then the total mass is not conserved either. In order to ensure mass conservation, a projection matrix that corrects for localization effects is constructed. In order to maintain both mass conservation and positivity preservation through the analysis step, we construct a data assimilation algorithm based on quadratic programming and ensemble Kalman filtering. Mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate constraints. Some simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. The results show clear improvements in both analyses and forecasts, particularly in the presence of localized features. Behavior of the algorithm is also tested in presence of model error.

  13. Ensemble estimators for multivariate entropy estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Sricharan, Kumar

    2012-01-01

    The problem of estimation of density functionals like entropy and mutual information has received much attention in the statistics and information theory communities. A large class of estimators of functionals of the probability density suffer from the curse of dimensionality, wherein the exponent in the MSE rate of convergence decays increasingly slowly as the dimension $d$ of the samples increases. In particular, the rate is often glacially slow of order $O(T^{-{\\gamma}/{d}})$, where $T$ is the number of samples, and $\\gamma>0$ is a rate parameter. Examples of such estimators include kernel density estimators, $k$-NN density estimators, $k$-NN entropy estimators, intrinsic dimension estimators and other examples. In this paper, we propose a weighted convex combination of an ensemble of such estimators, where optimal weights can be chosen such that the weighted estimator converges at a much faster dimension invariant rate of $O(T^{-1})$. Furthermore, we show that these optimal weights can be determined by so...

  14. Combined biochemical and cytological analysis of membrane trafficking using lectins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Gareth W; Kail, Mark; Hollinshead, Michael; Vaux, David J

    2013-10-01

    We have tested the application of high-mannose-binding lectins as analytical reagents to identify N-glycans in the early secretory pathway of HeLa cells during subcellular fractionation and cytochemistry. Post-endoplasmic reticulum (ER) pre-Golgi intermediates were separated from the ER on Nycodenz-sucrose gradients, and the glycan composition of each gradient fraction was profiled using lectin blotting. The fractions containing the post-ER pre-Golgi intermediates are found to contain a subset of N-linked α-mannose glycans that bind the lectins Galanthus nivalis agglutinin (GNA), Pisum sativum agglutinin (PSA), and Lens culinaris agglutinin (LCA) but not lectins binding Golgi-modified glycans. Cytochemical analysis demonstrates that high-mannose-containing glycoproteins are predominantly localized to the ER and the early secretory pathway. Indirect immunofluorescence microscopy revealed that GNA colocalizes with the ER marker protein disulfide isomerase (PDI) and the COPI coat protein β-COP. In situ competition with concanavalin A (ConA), another high-mannose specific lectin, and subsequent GNA lectin histochemistry refined the localization of N-glyans containing nonreducing mannosyl groups, accentuating the GNA vesicular staining. Using GNA and treatments that perturb ER-Golgi transport, we demonstrate that lectins can be used to detect changes in membrane trafficking pathways histochemically. Overall, we find that conjugated plant lectins are effective tools for combinatory biochemical and cytological analysis of membrane trafficking of glycoproteins.

  15. Multi-dimensional project evaluation: Combining cost-benefit analysis and multi-criteria analysis with the COSIMA software system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This paper proposes a methodology that integrates quantitative and qualitative assessment. The methodology proposed combines conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) with multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The CBA methodology, based on welfare theory, assures that the project with the highest welfare...... different methods for combining cost-benefit analysis and multi-criteria analysis are examined and compared and a software system is presented. The software system gives the decision makers some possibilities regarding preference analysis, sensitivity and risk analysis. The aim of the software...... and software system for CBA and MCA decision making is finally compared with other methods for combining the CBA and MCA. Ultimately, some conclusions are made and perspectives are drawn. Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, Multi-criteria analysis, Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding, Transport infrastructure...

  16. A Fuzzy Integral Ensemble Method in Visual P300 Brain-Computer Interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cavrini

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the possibility of application of combination of classifiers using fuzzy measures and integrals to Brain-Computer Interface (BCI based on electroencephalography. In particular, we present an ensemble method that can be applied to a variety of systems and evaluate it in the context of a visual P300-based BCI. Offline analysis of data relative to 5 subjects lets us argue that the proposed classification strategy is suitable for BCI. Indeed, the achieved performance is significantly greater than the average of the base classifiers and, broadly speaking, similar to that of the best one. Thus the proposed methodology allows realizing systems that can be used by different subjects without the need for a preliminary configuration phase in which the best classifier for each user has to be identified. Moreover, the ensemble is often capable of detecting uncertain situations and turning them from misclassifications into abstentions, thereby improving the level of safety in BCI for environmental or device control.

  17. Ensemble Dynamics and Bred Vectors

    CERN Document Server

    Balci, Nusret; Restrepo, Juan M; Sell, George R

    2011-01-01

    We introduce the new concept of an EBV to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in initial conditions for weather forecasting. The new algorithm, which we call the "Ensemble Bred Vector" or EBV, is based on collective dynamics in essential ways. By construction, the EBV algorithm produces one or more dominant vectors. We investigate the performance of EBV, comparing it to the BV algorithm as well as the finite-time Lyapunov Vectors. We give a theoretical justification to the observed fact that the vectors produced by BV, EBV, and the finite-time Lyapunov vectors are similar for small amplitudes. Numerical comparisons of BV and EBV for the 3-equation Lorenz model and for a forced, dissipative partial differential equation of Cahn-Hilliard type that arises in modeling the thermohaline circulation, demonstrate that the EBV yields a size-ordered description of the perturbation field, and is more robust than the BV in the higher nonlinear regime. The EBV yields insight into the fractal structure of th...

  18. Cooperative effects of neuronal ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, G; Siebler, M

    1995-01-01

    Electrophysiological properties of neurons as the basic cellular elements of the central nervous system and their synaptic connections are well characterized down to a molecular level. However, the behavior of complex noisy networks formed by these constituents usually cannot simply be derived from the knowledge of its microscopic parameters. As a consequence, cooperative phenomena based on the interaction of neurons were postulated. This is a report on a study of global network spike activity as a function of synaptic interaction. We performed experiments in dissociated cultured hippocampal neurons and, for comparison, simulations of a mathematical model closely related to electrophysiology. Numeric analyses revealed that at a critical level of synaptic connectivity the firing behavior undergoes a phase transition. This cooperative effect depends crucially on the interaction of numerous cells and cannot be attributed to the spike threshold of individual neurons. In the experiment a drastic increase in the firing level was observed upon increase of synaptic efficacy by lowering of the extracellular magnesium concentration, which is compatible with our theoretical predictions. This "on-off" phenomenon demonstrates that even in small neuronal ensembles collective behavior can emerge which is not explained by the characteristics of single neurons. PMID:8542966

  19. Combined QCD and electroweak analysis of HERA data

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2075585; Adamczyk, L; Adamus, M; Antonelli, S; Aushev, V; Behnke, O; Behrens, U; Bertolin, A; Bloch, I; Boos, EG; Brock, I; Brook, NH; Brugnera, R; Bruni, A; Bussey, PJ; Caldwell, A; Capua, M; Catterall, CD; Chwastowski, J; Ciborowski, J; Ciesielski, R; Cooper-Sarkar, AM; Corradi, M; Dementiev, RK; Devenish, RCE; Dusini, S; Foster, B; Gach, G; Gallo, E; Garfagnini, A; Geiser, A; Gizhko, A; Gladilin, LK; Golubkov, Yu A; Grzelak, G; Guzik, M; Hain, W; Hochman, D; Hori, R; Ibrahim, ZA; Iga, Y; Ishitsuka, M; Januschek, F; Jomhari, NZ; Kadenko, I; Kananov, S; Karshon, U; Kaur, P; Kisielewska, D; Klanner, R; Klein, U; Korzhavina, IA; Kotański, A; Kötz, U; Kovalchuk, N; Kowalski, H; Krupa, B; Kuprash, O; Kuze, M; Levchenko, BB; Levy, A; Limentani, S; Lisovyi, M; Lobodzinska, E; Löhr, B; Lohrmann, E; Longhin, A; Lontkovskyi, D; Lukina, OYu; Makarenko, I; Malka, J; Mohamad Idris, F; Mohammad Nasir, N; Myronenko, V; Nagano, K; Nobe, T; Nowak, RJ; Onishchuk, Yu; Paul, E; Perlański, W; Pokrovskiy, NS; Przybycien, M; Roloff, P; Ruspa, M; Saxon, DH; Schioppa, M; Schneekloth, U; Schörner-Sadenius, T; Shcheglova, LM; Shevchenko, R; Shkola, O; Shyrma, Yu; Singh, I; Skillicorn, IO; Słomiński, W; Solano, A; Stanco, L; Stefaniuk, N; Stern, A; Stopa, P; Sztuk-Dambietz, J; Tassi, E; Tokushuku, K; Tomaszewska, J; Tsurugai, T; Turcato, M; Turkot, O; Tymieniecka, T; Verbytskyi, A; Wan Abdullah, WAT; Wichmann, K; Wing, M; Yamada, S; Yamazaki, Y; Zakharchuk, N; Żarnecki, AF; Zawiejski, L; Zenaiev, O; Zhautykov, BO; Zotkin, DS; Bhadra, S; Gwenlan, C; Hlushchenko, O; Polini, A; Mastroberardino, A

    2016-01-01

    A simultaneous fit of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and electroweak parameters to HERA data on deep inelastic scattering is presented. The input data are the neutral current and charged current inclusive cross sections which were previously used in the QCD analysis leading to the HERAPDF2.0 PDFs. In addition, the polarisation of the electron beam was taken into account for the ZEUS data recorded between 2004 and 2007. Results on the vector and axial-vector couplings of the Z boson to u- and d-type quarks, on the value of the electroweak mixing angle and the mass of the W boson are presented. The values obtained for the electroweak parameters are in agreement with Standard Model predictions.

  20. Combined QCD and electroweak analysis of HERA data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abramowicz, H. [Tel Aviv Univ. (Israel). School of Physics; Max-Planck-Institute for Physics, Munich (Germany); Abt, I. [Max-Planck-Institute for Physics, Munich (Germany); Adamczyk, L. [AGH-Univ. of Science and Technology, Krakow (Poland). Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science; Collaboration: ZEUS Collaboration; and others

    2016-03-15

    A simultaneous fit of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and electroweak parameters to HERA data on deep inelastic scattering is presented. The input data are the neutral current and charged current inclusive cross sections which were previously used in the QCD analysis leading to the HERAPDF2.0 PDFs. In addition, the polarisation of the electron beam was taken into account for the ZEUS data recorded between 2004 and 2007. Results on the vector and axial-vector couplings of the Z boson to u- and d-type quarks, on the value of the electroweak mixing angle and the mass of the W boson are presented. The values obtained for the electroweak parameters are in agreement with Standard Model predictions.

  1. MAMMOGRAMS ANALYSIS USING SVM CLASSIFIER IN COMBINED TRANSFORMS DOMAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.N. Prathibha

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Breast cancer is a primary cause of mortality and morbidity in women. Reports reveal that earlier the detection of abnormalities, better the improvement in survival. Digital mammograms are one of the most effective means for detecting possible breast anomalies at early stages. Digital mammograms supported with Computer Aided Diagnostic (CAD systems help the radiologists in taking reliable decisions. The proposed CAD system extracts wavelet features and spectral features for the better classification of mammograms. The Support Vector Machines classifier is used to analyze 206 mammogram images from Mias database pertaining to the severity of abnormality, i.e., benign and malign. The proposed system gives 93.14% accuracy for discrimination between normal-malign and 87.25% accuracy for normal-benign samples and 89.22% accuracy for benign-malign samples. The study reveals that features extracted in hybrid transform domain with SVM classifier proves to be a promising tool for analysis of mammograms.

  2. Combined QCD and electroweak analysis of HERA data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramowicz, H.; Abt, I.; Adamczyk, L.; Adamus, M.; Antonelli, S.; Aushev, V.; Behnke, O.; Behrens, U.; Bertolin, A.; Bhadra, S.; Bloch, I.; Boos, E. G.; Brock, I.; Brook, N. H.; Brugnera, R.; Bruni, A.; Bussey, P. J.; Caldwell, A.; Capua, M.; Catterall, C. D.; Chwastowski, J.; Ciborowski, J.; Ciesielski, R.; Cooper-Sarkar, A. M.; Corradi, M.; Dementiev, R. K.; Devenish, R. C. E.; Dusini, S.; Foster, B.; Gach, G.; Gallo, E.; Garfagnini, A.; Geiser, A.; Gizhko, A.; Gladilin, L. K.; Golubkov, Yu. A.; Grzelak, G.; Guzik, M.; Gwenlan, C.; Hain, W.; Hlushchenko, O.; Hochman, D.; Hori, R.; Ibrahim, Z. A.; Iga, Y.; Ishitsuka, M.; Januschek, F.; Jomhari, N. Z.; Kadenko, I.; Kananov, S.; Karshon, U.; Kaur, P.; Kisielewska, D.; Klanner, R.; Klein, U.; Korzhavina, I. A.; Kotański, A.; Kötz, U.; Kovalchuk, N.; Kowalski, H.; Krupa, B.; Kuprash, O.; Kuze, M.; Levchenko, B. B.; Levy, A.; Limentani, S.; Lisovyi, M.; Lobodzinska, E.; Löhr, B.; Lohrmann, E.; Longhin, A.; Lontkovskyi, D.; Lukina, O. Yu.; Makarenko, I.; Malka, J.; Mastroberardino, A.; Mohamad Idris, F.; Mohammad Nasir, N.; Myronenko, V.; Nagano, K.; Nobe, T.; Nowak, R. J.; Onishchuk, Yu.; Paul, E.; Perlański, W.; Pokrovskiy, N. S.; Polini, A.; Przybycień, M.; Roloff, P.; Ruspa, M.; Saxon, D. H.; Schioppa, M.; Schneekloth, U.; Schörner-Sadenius, T.; Shcheglova, L. M.; Shevchenko, R.; Shkola, O.; Shyrma, Yu.; Singh, I.; Skillicorn, I. O.; Słomiński, W.; Solano, A.; Stanco, L.; Stefaniuk, N.; Stern, A.; Stopa, P.; Sztuk-Dambietz, J.; Tassi, E.; Tokushuku, K.; Tomaszewska, J.; Tsurugai, T.; Turcato, M.; Turkot, O.; Tymieniecka, T.; Verbytskyi, A.; Wan Abdullah, W. A. T.; Wichmann, K.; Wing, M.; Yamada, S.; Yamazaki, Y.; Zakharchuk, N.; Żarnecki, A. F.; Zawiejski, L.; Zenaiev, O.; Zhautykov, B. O.; Zotkin, D. S.; ZEUS Collaboration

    2016-05-01

    A simultaneous fit of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and electroweak parameters to HERA data on deep inelastic scattering is presented. The input data are the neutral current and charged current inclusive cross sections which were previously used in the QCD analysis leading to the HERAPDF2.0 PDFs. In addition, the polarization of the electron beam was taken into account for the ZEUS data recorded between 2004 and 2007. Results on the vector and axial-vector couplings of the Z boson to u - and d -type quarks, on the value of the electroweak mixing angle and the mass of the W boson are presented. The values obtained for the electroweak parameters are in agreement with Standard Model predictions.

  3. Generating precipitation ensembles for flood alert and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caseri, Angelica; Javelle, Pierre; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Leblois, Etienne

    2015-04-01

    Floods represent one of the major natural disasters that are often responsible for fatalities and economic losses. Flood warning systems are needed to anticipate the arrival of severe events and mitigate their impacts. Flood alerts are particularly important for risk management and response in the nowcasting of flash floods. In this case, precipitation fields observed in real time play a crucial role and observational uncertainties must be taken into account. In this study, we investigate the potential of a framework which combines a geostatistical conditional simulation method that considers information from precipitation radar and rain gauges, and a distributed rainfall-runoff model to generate an ensemble of precipitation fields and produce probabilistic flood alert maps. We adapted the simulation method proposed by Leblois and Creutin (2013), based on the Turning Band Method (TBM) and a conditional simulation approach, to consider the temporal and spatial characteristics of radar data and rain gauge measurements altogether and generate precipitation ensembles. The AIGA system developed by Irstea and Météo-France for predicting flash floods in the French Mediterranean region (Javelle et al., 2014) was used to transform the generated precipitation ensembles into ensembles of discharge at the outlet of the studied catchments. Finally, discharge ensembles were translated into maps providing information on the probability of exceeding a given flood threshold. A total of 19 events that occurred between 2009 and 2013 in the Var region (southeastern France), a region prone to flash floods, was used to illustrate the approach. Results show that the proposed method is able to simulate an ensemble of realistic precipitation fields and capture peak flows of flash floods. This was shown to be particularly useful at ungauged catchments, where uncertainties on the evaluation of flood peaks are high. The results obtained also show that the approach developed can be used to

  4. A 4D-Ensemble-Variational System for Data Assimilation and Ensemble Initialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowler, Neill; Clayton, Adam; Jardak, Mohamed; Lee, Eunjoo; Jermey, Peter; Lorenc, Andrew; Piccolo, Chiara; Pring, Stephen; Wlasak, Marek; Barker, Dale; Inverarity, Gordon; Swinbank, Richard

    2016-04-01

    The Met Office has been developing a four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system over the past four years. The 4DEnVar system is intended both as data assimilation system in its own right and also an improved means of initializing the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The global MOGREPS ensemble has been initialized by running an ensemble of 4DEnVars (En-4DEnVar). The scalability and maintainability of ensemble data assimilation methods make them increasingly attractive, and 4DEnVar may be adopted in the context of the Met Office's LFRic project to redevelop the technical infrastructure to enable its Unified Model (MetUM) to be run efficiently on massively parallel supercomputers. This presentation will report on the results of the 4DEnVar development project, including experiments that have been run using ensemble sizes of up to 200 members.

  5. Direct Correlation of Cell Toxicity to Conformational Ensembles of Genetic Aβ Variants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Somavarapu, Arun Kumar; Kepp, Kasper Planeta

    2015-01-01

    We report a systematic analysis of conformational ensembles generated from multiseed molecular dynamics simulations of all 15 known genetic variants of Aβ42. We show that experimentally determined variant toxicities are largely explained by random coil content of the amyloid ensembles (correlatio...

  6. Transition from Poisson to circular unitary ensemble

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Vinayak; Akhilesh Pandey

    2009-09-01

    Transitions to universality classes of random matrix ensembles have been useful in the study of weakly-broken symmetries in quantum chaotic systems. Transitions involving Poisson as the initial ensemble have been particularly interesting. The exact two-point correlation function was derived by one of the present authors for the Poisson to circular unitary ensemble (CUE) transition with uniform initial density. This is given in terms of a rescaled symmetry breaking parameter Λ. The same result was obtained for Poisson to Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) transition by Kunz and Shapiro, using the contour-integral method of Brezin and Hikami. We show that their method is applicable to Poisson to CUE transition with arbitrary initial density. Their method is also applicable to the more general ℓ CUE to CUE transition where CUE refers to the superposition of ℓ independent CUE spectra in arbitrary ratio.

  7. Data assimilation the ensemble Kalman filter

    CERN Document Server

    Evensen, Geir

    2006-01-01

    Covers data assimilation and inverse methods, including both traditional state estimation and parameter estimation. This text and reference focuses on various popular data assimilation methods, such as weak and strong constraint variational methods and ensemble filters and smoothers.

  8. Irreplaceability of Neuronal Ensembles after Memory Allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoki Matsuo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Lesion studies suggest that an alternative system can compensate for damage to the primary region employed when animals acquire a memory. However, it is unclear whether functional compensation occurs at the cellular ensemble level. Here, we inhibited the activities of a specific subset of neurons activated during initial learning by utilizing a transgenic mouse that expresses tetanus toxin (TeNT under the control of the c-fos promoter. Notably, suppression interfered with relearning while sparing the ability to acquire and express fear memory for a distinct context. These results suggest that the activity of the initial ensemble is preferentially dedicated to the same learning and that it is not replaceable once it is allocated. Our results provide substantial insights into the machinery underlying how the brain allocates individual memories to discrete neuronal ensembles and how it ensures that repetitive learning strengthens memory by reactivating the same neuronal ensembles.

  9. The Parallel Data Assimilation Framework PDAF - a flexible software framework for ensemble data assimilation

    OpenAIRE

    Nerger, Lars; Hiller, Wolfgang; Schröter, Jens

    2012-01-01

    Ensemble filter algorithms can be implemented in a generic way such that they can be applied with various models with only a minimum amount of recoding. This is possible due to the fact that ensemble filters can operate on abstract state vectors and require only limited information about the numerical model and the observational data used for a data assimilation application. To build an assimilation system, the analysis step of a filter algorithm needs to be connected to t...

  10. Quantum teleportation between remote atomic-ensemble quantum memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Xiao-Hui; Xu, Xiao-Fan; Li, Che-Ming; Yuan, Zhen-Sheng; Lu, Chao-Yang; Pan, Jian-Wei

    2012-12-11

    Quantum teleportation and quantum memory are two crucial elements for large-scale quantum networks. With the help of prior distributed entanglement as a "quantum channel," quantum teleportation provides an intriguing means to faithfully transfer quantum states among distant locations without actual transmission of the physical carriers [Bennett CH, et al. (1993) Phys Rev Lett 70(13):1895-1899]. Quantum memory enables controlled storage and retrieval of fast-flying photonic quantum bits with stationary matter systems, which is essential to achieve the scalability required for large-scale quantum networks. Combining these two capabilities, here we realize quantum teleportation between two remote atomic-ensemble quantum memory nodes, each composed of ∼10(8) rubidium atoms and connected by a 150-m optical fiber. The spin wave state of one atomic ensemble is mapped to a propagating photon and subjected to Bell state measurements with another single photon that is entangled with the spin wave state of the other ensemble. Two-photon detection events herald the success of teleportation with an average fidelity of 88(7)%. Besides its fundamental interest as a teleportation between two remote macroscopic objects, our technique may be useful for quantum information transfer between different nodes in quantum networks and distributed quantum computing. PMID:23144222

  11. Gradient flow and scale setting on MILC HISQ ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Komijani, J; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S

    2015-01-01

    We report on a scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f=2+1+1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from approximately 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ and their tree-level improvements, $\\sqrt{t_{0,{\\rm imp}}}$ and $w_{0,{\\rm imp}}$, are computed on each ensemble using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of the energy density $E$. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor-series ansatz for the lattice-spacing and strong-coupling dependence, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. We determine the scales $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1416({}_{-5}^{+8})$ fm and $w_0 = 0.1717({}_{-11}^{+12})$ fm, where the errors are sums, in quadrature, of statistical and all systematic errors. The precision of $w_0$ and $\\sqrt{t_0}$ is comparable to or more precise than...

  12. Adaptive Ensemble with Human Memorizing Characteristics for Data Stream Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhuang Jiang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Combining several classifiers on sequential chunks of training instances is a popular strategy for data stream mining with concept drifts. This paper introduces human recalling and forgetting mechanisms into a data stream mining system and proposes a Memorizing Based Data Stream Mining (MDSM model. In this model, each component classifier is regarded as a piece of knowledge that a human obtains through learning some materials and has a memory retention value reflecting its usefulness in the history. The classifiers with high memory retention values are reserved in a “knowledge repository.” When a new data chunk comes, most useful classifiers will be selected (recalled from the repository and compose the current target ensemble. Based on MDSM, we put forward a new algorithm, MAE (Memorizing Based Adaptive Ensemble, which uses Ebbinghaus forgetting curve as the forgetting mechanism and adopts ensemble pruning as the recalling mechanism. Compared with four popular data stream mining approaches on the datasets with different concept drifts, the experimental results show that MAE achieves high and stable predicting accuracy, especially for the applications with recurring or complex concept drifts. The results also prove the effectiveness of MDSM model.

  13. Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR ensemble modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X.-Z. Liang

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR ensemble modeling system has been developed to incorporate the largest choices of alternative parameterizations for cloud properties (cover, water, radius, optics, geometry, aerosol properties (type, profile, optics, radiation transfers (solar, infrared, and their interactions. These schemes form the most comprehensive collection currently available in the literature, including those used by the world leading general circulation models (GCMs. The CAR provides a unique framework to determine (via intercomparison across all schemes, reduce (via optimized ensemble simulations, and attribute specific key factors for (via physical process sensitivity analyses the model discrepancies and uncertainties in representing greenhouse gas, aerosol and cloud radiative forcing effects. This study presents a general description of the CAR system and illustrates its capabilities for climate modeling applications, especially in the context of estimating climate sensitivity and uncertainty range caused by cloud-aerosol-radiation interactions. For demonstration purpose, the evaluation is based on several CAR standalone and coupled climate model experiments, each comparing a limited subset of the full system ensemble with up to 896 members. It is shown that the quantification of radiative forcings and climate impacts strongly depends on the choices of the cloud, aerosol and radiation schemes. The prevailing schemes used in current GCMs are likely insufficient in variety and physically biased in a significant way. There exists large room for improvement by optimally combining radiation transfer with cloud property schemes.

  14. Local Ensemble Kalman Particle Filters for efficient data assimilation

    CERN Document Server

    Robert, Sylvain

    2016-01-01

    Ensemble methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are widely used for data assimilation in large-scale geophysical applications, as for example in numerical weather prediction (NWP). There is a growing interest for physical models with higher and higher resolution, which brings new challenges for data assimilation techniques because of the presence of non-linear and non-Gaussian features that are not adequately treated by the EnKF. We propose two new localized algorithms based on the Ensemble Kalman Particle Filter (EnKPF), a hybrid method combining the EnKF and the Particle Filter (PF) in a way that maintains scalability and sample diversity. Localization is a key element of the success of EnKFs in practice, but it is much more challenging to apply to PFs. The algorithms that we introduce in the present paper provide a compromise between the EnKF and the PF while avoiding some of the problems of localization for pure PFs. Numerical experiments with a simplified model of cumulus convection based on a...

  15. Method to detect gravitational waves from an ensemble of known pulsars

    CERN Document Server

    Fan, Xilong; Messenger, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Combining information from weak sources, such as known pulsars, for gravitational wave detection, is an attractive approach to improve detection efficiency. We propose an optimal statistic for a general ensemble of signals and apply it to an ensemble of known pulsars. Our method combines $\\mathcal F$-statistic values from individual pulsars using weights proportional to each pulsar's expected optimal signal-to-noise ratio to improve the detection efficiency. We also point out that to detect at least one pulsar within an ensemble, different thresholds should be designed for each source based on the expected signal strength. The performance of our proposed detection statistic is demonstrated using simulated sources, with the assumption that all pulsars' ellipticities belong to a common (yet unknown) distribution. Comparing with an equal-weight strategy and with individual source approaches, we show that the weighted-combination of all known pulsars, where weights are assigned based on the pulsars' known informa...

  16. Reversible Projective Measurement in Quantum Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Khitrin, Anatoly; Lee, Jae-Seung

    2010-01-01

    We present experimental NMR demonstration of a scheme of reversible projective measurement, which allows extracting information on outcomes and probabilities of a projective measurement in a non-destructive way, with a minimal net effect on the quantum state of an ensemble. The scheme uses reversible dynamics and weak measurement of the intermediate state. The experimental system is an ensemble of 133Cs (S = 7/2) nuclei in a liquid-crystalline matrix.

  17. Calibrating ensemble reliability whilst preserving spatial structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Flowerdew

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim to improve decision-making by predicting a set of possible outcomes. Ideally, these would provide probabilities which are both sharp and reliable. In practice, the models, data assimilation and ensemble perturbation systems are all imperfect, leading to deficiencies in the predicted probabilities. This paper presents an ensemble post-processing scheme which directly targets local reliability, calibrating both climatology and ensemble dispersion in one coherent operation. It makes minimal assumptions about the underlying statistical distributions, aiming to extract as much information as possible from the original dynamic forecasts and support statistically awkward variables such as precipitation. The output is a set of ensemble members preserving the spatial, temporal and inter-variable structure from the raw forecasts, which should be beneficial to downstream applications such as hydrological models. The calibration is tested on three leading 15-d ensemble systems, and their aggregation into a simple multimodel ensemble. Results are presented for 12 h, 1° scale over Europe for a range of surface variables, including precipitation. The scheme is very effective at removing unreliability from the raw forecasts, whilst generally preserving or improving statistical resolution. In most cases, these benefits extend to the rarest events at each location within the 2-yr verification period. The reliability and resolution are generally equivalent or superior to those achieved using a Local Quantile-Quantile Transform, an established calibration method which generalises bias correction. The value of preserving spatial structure is demonstrated by the fact that 3×3 averages derived from grid-scale precipitation calibration perform almost as well as direct calibration at 3×3 scale, and much better than a similar test neglecting the spatial relationships. Some remaining issues are discussed regarding the finite size of the output

  18. Sensitivity of regional ensemble data assimilation spread to perturbations of lateral boundary conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachida El Ouaraini

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of a regional ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system requires the specification of appropriate perturbations of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs, in order to simulate associated errors. The sensitivity of analysis and 6-h forecast ensemble spread to these perturbations is studied here formally and experimentally by comparing three different LBC configurations for the ensemble data assimilation system of the ALADIN-France limited-area model (LAM. While perturbed initial LBCs are provided by the perturbed LAM analyses in each ensemble, the three ensemble configurations differ with respect to LBCs used at 3- and 6-h forecast ranges, which respectively correspond to: (1 perturbed LBCs provided by the operational global ensemble data assimilation system (GLBC, which is considered as a reference configuration; (2 unperturbed LBCs (ULBC obtained from the global deterministic model; (3 perturbed LBCs obtained by adding random draws of an error covariance model (PLBC to the global deterministic system. A formal analysis of error and perturbation equations is first carried out, in order to provide an insight of the relative effects of observation perturbations and of LBC perturbations at different ranges, in the various ensemble configurations. Horizontal variations of time-averaged ensemble spread are then examined for 6-h forecasts. Despite the use of perturbed initial LBCs, the regional ensemble ULBC is underdispersive not only near the lateral boundaries, but also in approximately one-third of the inner area, due to advection during the data assimilation cycle. This artefact is avoided in PLBC through the additional use of non-zero LBC perturbations at 3- and 6-h ranges, and the sensitivity to the amplitude scaling of the covariance model is illustrated for this configuration. Some aspects of the temporal variation of ensemble spread and associated sensitivities to LBC perturbations are also studied. These results

  19. An ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers for fault detection and isolation of gas turbine engines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amozegar, M; Khorasani, K

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, a new approach for Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) of gas turbine engines is proposed by developing an ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers. For health monitoring of the gas turbine engine, its dynamics is first identified by constructing three separate or individual dynamic neural network architectures. Specifically, a dynamic multi-layer perceptron (MLP), a dynamic radial-basis function (RBF) neural network, and a dynamic support vector machine (SVM) are trained to individually identify and represent the gas turbine engine dynamics. Next, three ensemble-based techniques are developed to represent the gas turbine engine dynamics, namely, two heterogeneous ensemble models and one homogeneous ensemble model. It is first shown that all ensemble approaches do significantly improve the overall performance and accuracy of the developed system identification scheme when compared to each of the stand-alone solutions. The best selected stand-alone model (i.e., the dynamic RBF network) and the best selected ensemble architecture (i.e., the heterogeneous ensemble) in terms of their performances in achieving an accurate system identification are then selected for solving the FDI task. The required residual signals are generated by using both a single model-based solution and an ensemble-based solution under various gas turbine engine health conditions. Our extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the fault detection and isolation task achieved by using the residuals that are obtained from the dynamic ensemble scheme results in a significantly more accurate and reliable performance as illustrated through detailed quantitative confusion matrix analysis and comparative studies. PMID:26881999

  20. An ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers for fault detection and isolation of gas turbine engines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amozegar, M; Khorasani, K

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, a new approach for Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) of gas turbine engines is proposed by developing an ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers. For health monitoring of the gas turbine engine, its dynamics is first identified by constructing three separate or individual dynamic neural network architectures. Specifically, a dynamic multi-layer perceptron (MLP), a dynamic radial-basis function (RBF) neural network, and a dynamic support vector machine (SVM) are trained to individually identify and represent the gas turbine engine dynamics. Next, three ensemble-based techniques are developed to represent the gas turbine engine dynamics, namely, two heterogeneous ensemble models and one homogeneous ensemble model. It is first shown that all ensemble approaches do significantly improve the overall performance and accuracy of the developed system identification scheme when compared to each of the stand-alone solutions. The best selected stand-alone model (i.e., the dynamic RBF network) and the best selected ensemble architecture (i.e., the heterogeneous ensemble) in terms of their performances in achieving an accurate system identification are then selected for solving the FDI task. The required residual signals are generated by using both a single model-based solution and an ensemble-based solution under various gas turbine engine health conditions. Our extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the fault detection and isolation task achieved by using the residuals that are obtained from the dynamic ensemble scheme results in a significantly more accurate and reliable performance as illustrated through detailed quantitative confusion matrix analysis and comparative studies.

  1. Sequential Ensembles Tolerant to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR Soil Moisture Retrieval Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Hyoung Lee

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to complicated and undefined systematic errors in satellite observation, data assimilation integrating model states with satellite observations is more complicated than field measurements-based data assimilation at a local scale. In the case of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR soil moisture, the systematic errors arising from uncertainties in roughness conditions are significant and unavoidable, but current satellite bias correction methods do not resolve the problems very well. Thus, apart from the bias correction process of satellite observation, it is important to assess the inherent capability of satellite data assimilation in such sub-optimal but more realistic observational error conditions. To this end, time-evolving sequential ensembles of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF is compared with stationary ensemble of the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI scheme that does not evolve the ensembles over time. As the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the surface roughness is more sensitive to the SAR retrievals than measurement errors, it is a scope of this study to monitor how data assimilation alters the effects of roughness on SAR soil moisture retrievals. In results, two data assimilation schemes all provided intermediate values between SAR overestimation, and model underestimation. However, under the same SAR observational error conditions, the sequential ensembles approached a calibrated model showing the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, while the stationary ensemble converged towards the SAR observations exhibiting the highest RMSE. As compared to stationary ensembles, sequential ensembles have a better tolerance to SAR retrieval errors. Such inherent nature of EnKF suggests an operational merit as a satellite data assimilation system, due to the limitation of bias correction methods currently available.

  2. Hippocampal ensemble dynamics timestamp events in long-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Alon; Geva, Nitzan; Sheintuch, Liron; Ziv, Yaniv

    2015-01-01

    The capacity to remember temporal relationships between different events is essential to episodic memory, but little is currently known about its underlying mechanisms. We performed time-lapse imaging of thousands of neurons over weeks in the hippocampal CA1 of mice as they repeatedly visited two distinct environments. Longitudinal analysis exposed ongoing environment-independent evolution of episodic representations, despite stable place field locations and constant remapping between the two environments. These dynamics time-stamped experienced events via neuronal ensembles that had cellular composition and activity patterns unique to specific points in time. Temporally close episodes shared a common timestamp regardless of the spatial context in which they occurred. Temporally remote episodes had distinct timestamps, even if they occurred within the same spatial context. Our results suggest that days-scale hippocampal ensemble dynamics could support the formation of a mental timeline in which experienced events could be mnemonically associated or dissociated based on their temporal distance. PMID:26682652

  3. Ensemble dispersion forecasting - Part 1. Concept, approach and indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; Klug, W.;

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents an approach to the treatment and analysis of long-range transport and dispersion model forecasts. Long-range is intended here as the space scale of the order of few thousands of kilometers known also as continental scale. The method is called multi-model ensemble dispersion...... of harmful volatile substances, in particular radionuclides to the atmosphere. The ensemble dispersion approach and indicators provide a way to reduce several model results to few concise representations that include an estimate of the models' agreement in predicting a specific scenario. The parameters...... proposed are particularly suited for long-range transport and dispersion models although they can also be applied to short-range dispersion and weather fields. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  4. Current path in light emitting diodes based on nanowire ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Light emitting diodes (LEDs) have been fabricated using ensembles of free-standing (In, Ga)N/GaN nanowires (NWs) grown on Si substrates in the self-induced growth mode by molecular beam epitaxy. Electron-beam-induced current analysis, cathodoluminescence as well as biased μ-photoluminescence spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and electrical measurements indicate that the electroluminescence of such LEDs is governed by the differences in the individual current densities of the single-NW LEDs operated in parallel, i.e. by the inhomogeneity of the current path in the ensemble LED. In addition, the optoelectronic characterization leads to the conclusion that these NWs exhibit N-polarity and that the (In, Ga)N quantum well states in the NWs are subject to a non-vanishing quantum confined Stark effect. (paper)

  5. Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Yiou

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a method of atmospheric flow analogues to reconstruct an ensemble of atmospheric variables (namely sea-level pressure, surface temperature and wind speed between 1781 and 1785. The properties of this ensemble are investigated and tested against observations of temperature. The goal of the paper is to assess whether the atmospheric circulation during the Laki volcanic eruption (in 1783 and the subsequent winter were similar to the conditions that prevailed in the winter 2009/2010 and during spring 2010. We find that the three months following the Laki eruption in June 1783 barely have analogues in 2010. The cold winter of 1783/1784 yields circulation analogues in 2009/2010. Our analysis suggests that it is unlikely that the Laki eruption was responsible for the cold winter of 1783/1784, of the relatively short memory of the atmospheric circulation.

  6. A Multiresolution Ensemble Kalman Filter using Wavelet Decomposition

    CERN Document Server

    Hickmann, Kyle S

    2015-01-01

    We present a method of using classical wavelet based multiresolution analysis to separate scales in model and observations during data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter. In many applications, the underlying physics of a phenomena involve the interaction of features at multiple scales. Blending of observational and model error across scales can result in large forecast inaccuracies since large errors at one scale are interpreted as inexact data at all scales. Our method uses a transformation of the observation operator in order to separate the information from different scales of the observations. This naturally induces a transformation of the observation covariance and we put forward several algorithms to efficiently compute the transformed covariance. Another advantage of our multiresolution ensemble Kalman filter is that scales can be weighted independently to adjust each scale's effect on the forecast. To demonstrate feasibility we present applications to a one dimensional Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (...

  7. Using ensemble models to classify the sentiment expressed in suicide notes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCart, James A; Finch, Dezon K; Jarman, Jay; Hickling, Edward; Lind, Jason D; Richardson, Matthew R; Berndt, Donald J; Luther, Stephen L

    2012-01-01

    In 2007, suicide was the tenth leading cause of death in the U.S. Given the significance of this problem, suicide was the focus of the 2011 Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) Natural Language Processing (NLP) shared task competition (track two). Specifically, the challenge concentrated on sentiment analysis, predicting the presence or absence of 15 emotions (labels) simultaneously in a collection of suicide notes spanning over 70 years. Our team explored multiple approaches combining regular expression-based rules, statistical text mining (STM), and an approach that applies weights to text while accounting for multiple labels. Our best submission used an ensemble of both rules and STM models to achieve a micro-averaged F(1) score of 0.5023, slightly above the mean from the 26 teams that competed (0.4875).

  8. Using Ensemble Models to Classify the Sentiment Expressed in Suicide Notes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCart, James A.; Finch, Dezon K.; Jarman, Jay; Hickling, Edward; Lind, Jason D.; Richardson, Matthew R.; Berndt, Donald J.; Luther, Stephen L.

    2012-01-01

    In 2007, suicide was the tenth leading cause of death in the U.S. Given the significance of this problem, suicide was the focus of the 2011 Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) Natural Language Processing (NLP) shared task competition (track two). Specifically, the challenge concentrated on sentiment analysis, predicting the presence or absence of 15 emotions (labels) simultaneously in a collection of suicide notes spanning over 70 years. Our team explored multiple approaches combining regular expression-based rules, statistical text mining (STM), and an approach that applies weights to text while accounting for multiple labels. Our best submission used an ensemble of both rules and STM models to achieve a micro-averaged F1 score of 0.5023, slightly above the mean from the 26 teams that competed (0.4875). PMID:22879763

  9. Stochastic ensembles, conformationally adaptive teamwork, and enzymatic detoxification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, William M; Qian, Hong

    2011-05-17

    It has been appreciated for a long time that enzymes exist as conformational ensembles throughout multiple stages of the reactions they catalyze, but there is renewed interest in the functional implications. The energy landscape that results from conformationlly diverse poteins is a complex surface with an energetic topography in multiple dimensions, even at the transition state(s) leading to product formation, and this represents a new paradigm. At the same time there has been renewed interest in conformational ensembles, a new paradigm concerning enzyme function has emerged, wherein catalytic promiscuity has clear biological advantages in some cases. "Useful", or biologically functional, promiscuity or the related behavior of "multifunctionality" can be found in the immune system, enzymatic detoxification, signal transduction, and the evolution of new function from an existing pool of folded protein scaffolds. Experimental evidence supports the widely held assumption that conformational heterogeneity promotes functional promiscuity. The common link between these coevolving paradigms is the inherent structural plasticity and conformational dynamics of proteins that, on one hand, lead to complex but evolutionarily selected energy landscapes and, on the other hand, promote functional promiscuity. Here we consider a logical extension of the overlap between these two nascent paradigms: functionally promiscuous and multifunctional enzymes such as detoxification enzymes are expected to have an ensemble landscape with more states accessible on multiple time scales than substrate specific enzymes. Two attributes of detoxification enzymes become important in the context of conformational ensembles: these enzymes metabolize multiple substrates, often in substrate mixtures, and they can form multiple products from a single substrate. These properties, combined with complex conformational landscapes, lead to the possibility of interesting time-dependent, or emergent

  10. Stochastic ensembles, conformationally adaptive teamwork, and enzymatic detoxification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, William M; Qian, Hong

    2011-05-17

    It has been appreciated for a long time that enzymes exist as conformational ensembles throughout multiple stages of the reactions they catalyze, but there is renewed interest in the functional implications. The energy landscape that results from conformationlly diverse poteins is a complex surface with an energetic topography in multiple dimensions, even at the transition state(s) leading to product formation, and this represents a new paradigm. At the same time there has been renewed interest in conformational ensembles, a new paradigm concerning enzyme function has emerged, wherein catalytic promiscuity has clear biological advantages in some cases. "Useful", or biologically functional, promiscuity or the related behavior of "multifunctionality" can be found in the immune system, enzymatic detoxification, signal transduction, and the evolution of new function from an existing pool of folded protein scaffolds. Experimental evidence supports the widely held assumption that conformational heterogeneity promotes functional promiscuity. The common link between these coevolving paradigms is the inherent structural plasticity and conformational dynamics of proteins that, on one hand, lead to complex but evolutionarily selected energy landscapes and, on the other hand, promote functional promiscuity. Here we consider a logical extension of the overlap between these two nascent paradigms: functionally promiscuous and multifunctional enzymes such as detoxification enzymes are expected to have an ensemble landscape with more states accessible on multiple time scales than substrate specific enzymes. Two attributes of detoxification enzymes become important in the context of conformational ensembles: these enzymes metabolize multiple substrates, often in substrate mixtures, and they can form multiple products from a single substrate. These properties, combined with complex conformational landscapes, lead to the possibility of interesting time-dependent, or emergent

  11. Meaning of temperature in different thermostatistical ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänggi, Peter; Hilbert, Stefan; Dunkel, Jörn

    2016-03-28

    Depending on the exact experimental conditions, the thermodynamic properties of physical systems can be related to one or more thermostatistical ensembles. Here, we survey the notion of thermodynamic temperature in different statistical ensembles, focusing in particular on subtleties that arise when ensembles become non-equivalent. The 'mother' of all ensembles, the microcanonical ensemble, uses entropy and internal energy (the most fundamental, dynamically conserved quantity) to derive temperature as a secondary thermodynamic variable. Over the past century, some confusion has been caused by the fact that several competing microcanonical entropy definitions are used in the literature, most commonly the volume and surface entropies introduced by Gibbs. It can be proved, however, that only the volume entropy satisfies exactly the traditional form of the laws of thermodynamics for a broad class of physical systems, including all standard classical Hamiltonian systems, regardless of their size. This mathematically rigorous fact implies that negative 'absolute' temperatures and Carnot efficiencies more than 1 are not achievable within a standard thermodynamical framework. As an important offspring of microcanonical thermostatistics, we shall briefly consider the canonical ensemble and comment on the validity of the Boltzmann weight factor. We conclude by addressing open mathematical problems that arise for systems with discrete energy spectra. PMID:26903095

  12. Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Inhye; Lee, Jiyeong; Saro, Lee

    2014-06-01

    Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.

  13. The assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble for business risk forecasting and an implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hui; Hong, Lu-Yao; Zhou, Qing; Yu, Hai-Jie

    2015-08-01

    The business failure of numerous companies results in financial crises. The high social costs associated with such crises have made people to search for effective tools for business risk prediction, among which, support vector machine is very effective. Several modelling means, including single-technique modelling, hybrid modelling, and ensemble modelling, have been suggested in forecasting business risk with support vector machine. However, existing literature seldom focuses on the general modelling frame for business risk prediction, and seldom investigates performance differences among different modelling means. We reviewed researches on forecasting business risk with support vector machine, proposed the general assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble (APMF-WHAE), and finally, investigated the use of principal components analysis, support vector machine, random sampling, and group decision, under the general frame in forecasting business risk. Under the APMF-WHAE frame with support vector machine as the base predictive model, four specific predictive models were produced, namely, pure support vector machine, a hybrid support vector machine involved with principal components analysis, a support vector machine ensemble involved with random sampling and group decision, and an ensemble of hybrid support vector machine using group decision to integrate various hybrid support vector machines on variables produced from principle components analysis and samples from random sampling. The experimental results indicate that hybrid support vector machine and ensemble of hybrid support vector machines were able to produce dominating performance than pure support vector machine and support vector machine ensemble.

  14. Models of fragmentation phenomena based on the symmetric group Sn and combinational analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Various models for fragmentation phenomena are developed using methods from permutation groups and combinational analysis. The appearance and properties of power laws in these models are discussed. Various exactly soluble cases are studied

  15. Combining pathway analysis with flux balance analysis for the comprehensive study of metabolic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, C H; Edwards, J S; Letscher, D; Palsson, B Ø

    The elucidation of organism-scale metabolic networks necessitates the development of integrative methods to analyze and interpret the systemic properties of cellular metabolism. A shift in emphasis from single metabolic reactions to systemically defined pathways is one consequence of such an integrative analysis of metabolic systems. The constraints of systemic stoichiometry, and limited thermodynamics have led to the definition of the flux space within the context of convex analysis. The flux space of the metabolic system, containing all allowable flux distributions, is constrained to a convex polyhedral cone in a high-dimensional space. From metabolic pathway analysis, the edges of the high-dimensional flux cone are vectors that correspond to systemically defined "extreme pathways" spanning the capabilities of the system. The addition of maximum flux capacities of individual metabolic reactions serves to further constrain the flux space and has led to the development of flux balance analysis using linear optimization to calculate optimal flux distributions. Here we provide the precise theoretical connections between pathway analysis and flux balance analysis allowing for their combined application to study integrated metabolic function. Shifts in metabolic behavior are calculated using linear optimization and are then interpreted using the extreme pathways to demonstrate the concept of pathway utilization. Changes to the reaction network, such as the removal of a reaction, can lead to the generation of suboptimal phenotypes that can be directly attributed to the loss of pathway function and capabilities. Optimal growth phenotypes are calculated as a function of environmental variables, such as the availability of substrate and oxygen, leading to the definition of phenotypic phase planes. It is illustrated how optimality properties of the computed flux distributions can be interpreted in terms of the extreme pathways. Together these developments are applied to an

  16. Orchestrating Distributed Resource Ensembles for Petascale Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldin, Ilya; Mandal, Anirban; Ruth, Paul; Yufeng, Xin

    2014-04-24

    Distributed, data-intensive computational science applications of interest to DOE scientific com- munities move large amounts of data for experiment data management, distributed analysis steps, remote visualization, and accessing scientific instruments. These applications need to orchestrate ensembles of resources from multiple resource pools and interconnect them with high-capacity multi- layered networks across multiple domains. It is highly desirable that mechanisms are designed that provide this type of resource provisioning capability to a broad class of applications. It is also important to have coherent monitoring capabilities for such complex distributed environments. In this project, we addressed these problems by designing an abstract API, enabled by novel semantic resource descriptions, for provisioning complex and heterogeneous resources from multiple providers using their native provisioning mechanisms and control planes: computational, storage, and multi-layered high-speed network domains. We used an extensible resource representation based on semantic web technologies to afford maximum flexibility to applications in specifying their needs. We evaluated the effectiveness of provisioning using representative data-intensive ap- plications. We also developed mechanisms for providing feedback about resource performance to the application, to enable closed-loop feedback control and dynamic adjustments to resource allo- cations (elasticity). This was enabled through development of a novel persistent query framework that consumes disparate sources of monitoring data, including perfSONAR, and provides scalable distribution of asynchronous notifications.

  17. Ensemble postprocessing for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentzien, S.; Friederichs, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation is one of the most difficult weather variables to predict in hydrometeorological applications. In order to assess the uncertainty inherent in deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP), meteorological services around the globe develop ensemble prediction systems (EPS) based on high-resolution NWP systems. With non-hydrostatic model dynamics and without parameterization of deep moist convection, high-resolution NWP models are able to describe convective processes in more detail and provide more realistic mesoscale structures. However, precipitation forecasts are still affected by displacement errors, systematic biases and fast error growth on small scales. Probabilistic guidance can be achieved from an ensemble setup which accounts for model error and uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) provides such an ensemble system based on the German-focused limited-area model COSMO-DE. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2.8 km, COSMO-DE is the convection-permitting high-resolution part of the operational model chain at DWD. The COSMO-DE-EPS consists of 20 realizations of COSMO-DE, driven by initial and boundary conditions derived from 4 global models and 5 perturbations of model physics. Ensemble systems like COSMO-DE-EPS are often limited with respect to ensemble size due to the immense computational costs. As a consequence, they can be biased and exhibit insufficient ensemble spread, and probabilistic forecasts may be not well calibrated. In this study, probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts are derived from COSMO-DE-EPS and evaluated at more than 1000 rain gauges located all over Germany. COSMO-DE-EPS is a frequently updated ensemble system, initialized 8 times a day. We use the time-lagged approach to inexpensively increase ensemble spread, which results in more reliable forecasts especially for extreme precipitation events. Moreover, we will show that statistical

  18. Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Pfeifer

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate signal maps can be used to identify regions where robust climate changes can be derived from an ensemble of climate change simulations. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Climate signal maps do not show all information available from the model ensemble, but give a condensed view in order to be useful for non-climate scientists who have to assess climate change impact during the course of their work. Three different ensembles of regional climate projections have been analyzed regarding changes of seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (defined as the number of days exceeding the 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation for Germany, using climate signal maps. Although the models used and the scenario assumptions differ for the three ensembles (representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 vs. RCP8.5 vs. A1B, some similarities in the projections of future seasonal and extreme precipitation can be seen. For the winter season, both mean and extreme precipitation are projected to increase. The strength, robustness and regional pattern of this increase, however, depends on the ensemble. For summer, a robust decrease of mean precipitation can be detected only for small regions in southwestern Germany and only from two of the three ensembles, whereas none of them projects a robust increase of summer extreme precipitation.

  19. A Unification of Ensemble Square Root Kalman Filters

    OpenAIRE

    Nerger, Lars; Janjic Pfander, Tijana; Schröter, Jens; Hiller, Wolfgang

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, several ensemble-based Kalman filter algorithms have been developed that have been classified as ensemble square-root Kalman filters. Parallel to this development, the SEIK (Singular ``Evolutive'' Interpolated Kalman) filter has been introduced and applied in several studies. Some publications note that the SEIK filter is an ensemble Kalman filter or even an ensemble square-root Kalman filter. This study examines the relation of the SEIK filter to ensemble square-root filters...

  20. On the Convergence of the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    OpenAIRE

    Mandel, Jan; Cobb, Loren; Beezley, Jonathan D.

    2009-01-01

    Convergence of the ensemble Kalman filter in the limit for large ensembles to the Kalman filter is proved. In each step of the filter, convergence of the ensemble sample covariance follows from a weak law of large numbers for exchangeable random variables, the continuous mapping theorem gives convergence in probability of the ensemble members, and $L^p$ bounds on the ensemble then give $L^p$ convergence.

  1. Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simidjievski, Nikola; Todorovski, Ljupčo; Džeroski, Sašo

    2016-01-01

    Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting), significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.

  2. MANAGEMENT AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DATASET ENSEMBLES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geveci, Berk [Senior Director, Scientific Computing

    2010-05-17

    The primary Phase I technical objective was to develop a prototype that demonstrates the functionality of all components required for an end-to-end meta-data management and comparative visualization system.

  3. Overlapped partitioning for ensemble classifiers of P300-based brain-computer interfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onishi, Akinari; Natsume, Kiyohisa

    2014-01-01

    A P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI) enables a wide range of people to control devices that improve their quality of life. Ensemble classifiers with naive partitioning were recently applied to the P300-based BCI and these classification performances were assessed. However, they were usually trained on a large amount of training data (e.g., 15300). In this study, we evaluated ensemble linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers with a newly proposed overlapped partitioning method using 900 training data. In addition, the classification performances of the ensemble classifier with naive partitioning and a single LDA classifier were compared. One of three conditions for dimension reduction was applied: the stepwise method, principal component analysis (PCA), or none. The results show that an ensemble stepwise LDA (SWLDA) classifier with overlapped partitioning achieved a better performance than the commonly used single SWLDA classifier and an ensemble SWLDA classifier with naive partitioning. This result implies that the performance of the SWLDA is improved by overlapped partitioning and the ensemble classifier with overlapped partitioning requires less training data than that with naive partitioning. This study contributes towards reducing the required amount of training data and achieving better classification performance.

  4. Overlapped partitioning for ensemble classifiers of P300-based brain-computer interfaces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akinari Onishi

    Full Text Available A P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI enables a wide range of people to control devices that improve their quality of life. Ensemble classifiers with naive partitioning were recently applied to the P300-based BCI and these classification performances were assessed. However, they were usually trained on a large amount of training data (e.g., 15300. In this study, we evaluated ensemble linear discriminant analysis (LDA classifiers with a newly proposed overlapped partitioning method using 900 training data. In addition, the classification performances of the ensemble classifier with naive partitioning and a single LDA classifier were compared. One of three conditions for dimension reduction was applied: the stepwise method, principal component analysis (PCA, or none. The results show that an ensemble stepwise LDA (SWLDA classifier with overlapped partitioning achieved a better performance than the commonly used single SWLDA classifier and an ensemble SWLDA classifier with naive partitioning. This result implies that the performance of the SWLDA is improved by overlapped partitioning and the ensemble classifier with overlapped partitioning requires less training data than that with naive partitioning. This study contributes towards reducing the required amount of training data and achieving better classification performance.

  5. Analyses and forecasts of a tornadic supercell outbreak using a 3DVAR system ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Zhaorong; Yussouf, Nusrat; Gao, Jidong

    2016-05-01

    As part of NOAA's "Warn-On-Forecast" initiative, a convective-scale data assimilation and prediction system was developed using the WRF-ARW model and ARPS 3DVAR data assimilation technique. The system was then evaluated using retrospective short-range ensemble analyses and probabilistic forecasts of the tornadic supercell outbreak event that occurred on 24 May 2011 in Oklahoma, USA. A 36-member multi-physics ensemble system provided the initial and boundary conditions for a 3-km convective-scale ensemble system. Radial velocity and reflectivity observations from four WSR-88Ds were assimilated into the ensemble using the ARPS 3DVAR technique. Five data assimilation and forecast experiments were conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the system to data assimilation frequencies, in-cloud temperature adjustment schemes, and fixed- and mixed-microphysics ensembles. The results indicated that the experiment with 5-min assimilation frequency quickly built up the storm and produced a more accurate analysis compared with the 10-min assimilation frequency experiment. The predicted vertical vorticity from the moist-adiabatic in-cloud temperature adjustment scheme was larger in magnitude than that from the latent heat scheme. Cycled data assimilation yielded good forecasts, where the ensemble probability of high vertical vorticity matched reasonably well with the observed tornado damage path. Overall, the results of the study suggest that the 3DVAR analysis and forecast system can provide reasonable forecasts of tornadic supercell storms.

  6. Individual differences in ensemble perception reveal multiple, independent levels of ensemble representation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberman, Jason; Brady, Timothy F; Alvarez, George A

    2015-04-01

    Ensemble perception, including the ability to "see the average" from a group of items, operates in numerous feature domains (size, orientation, speed, facial expression, etc.). Although the ubiquity of ensemble representations is well established, the large-scale cognitive architecture of this process remains poorly defined. We address this using an individual differences approach. In a series of experiments, observers saw groups of objects and reported either a single item from the group or the average of the entire group. High-level ensemble representations (e.g., average facial expression) showed complete independence from low-level ensemble representations (e.g., average orientation). In contrast, low-level ensemble representations (e.g., orientation and color) were correlated with each other, but not with high-level ensemble representations (e.g., facial expression and person identity). These results suggest that there is not a single domain-general ensemble mechanism, and that the relationship among various ensemble representations depends on how proximal they are in representational space. PMID:25844624

  7. Examining Combinations of Social Physique Anxiety and Motivation Regulations Using Latent Profile Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullrich-French, Sarah; Cox, Anne E.; Cooper, Brittany Rhoades

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has used cluster analysis to examine how social physique anxiety (SPA) combines with motivation in physical education. This study utilized a more advanced analytic approach, latent profile analysis (LPA), to identify profiles of SPA and motivation regulations. Students in grades 9-12 (N = 298) completed questionnaires at two time…

  8. Simulations in generalized ensembles through noninstantaneous switches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannelli, Edoardo; Cardini, Gianni; Chelli, Riccardo

    2015-10-01

    Generalized-ensemble simulations, such as replica exchange and serial generalized-ensemble methods, are powerful simulation tools to enhance sampling of free energy landscapes in systems with high energy barriers. In these methods, sampling is enhanced through instantaneous transitions of replicas, i.e., copies of the system, between different ensembles characterized by some control parameter associated with thermodynamical variables (e.g., temperature or pressure) or collective mechanical variables (e.g., interatomic distances or torsional angles). An interesting evolution of these methodologies has been proposed by replacing the conventional instantaneous (trial) switches of replicas with noninstantaneous switches, realized by varying the control parameter in a finite time and accepting the final replica configuration with a Metropolis-like criterion based on the Crooks nonequilibrium work (CNW) theorem. Here we revise these techniques focusing on their correlation with the CNW theorem in the framework of Markovian processes. An outcome of this report is the derivation of the acceptance probability for noninstantaneous switches in serial generalized-ensemble simulations, where we show that explicit knowledge of the time dependence of the weight factors entering such simulations is not necessary. A generalized relationship of the CNW theorem is also provided in terms of the underlying equilibrium probability distribution at a fixed control parameter. Illustrative calculations on a toy model are performed with serial generalized-ensemble simulations, especially focusing on the different behavior of instantaneous and noninstantaneous replica transition schemes.

  9. Well-posedness and accuracy of the ensemble Kalman filter in discrete and continuous time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations associated with the filter, which are required to make a useable algorithm in practice, are derived in an ad hoc fashion. The aim of this paper is to initiate the development of a systematic analysis of the EnKF, in particular to do so for small ensemble size. The perspective is to view the method as a state estimator, and not as an algorithm which approximates the true filtering distribution. The perturbed observation version of the algorithm is studied, without and with variance inflation. Without variance inflation well-posedness of the filter is established; with variance inflation accuracy of the filter, with respect to the true signal underlying the data, is established. The algorithm is considered in discrete time, and also for a continuous time limit arising when observations are frequent and subject to large noise. The underlying dynamical model, and assumptions about it, is sufficiently general to include the Lorenz '63 and '96 models, together with the incompressible Navier–Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus. The analysis is limited to the case of complete observation of the signal with additive white noise. Numerical results are presented for the Navier–Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus for both complete and partial observations of the signal with additive white noise. (paper)

  10. A Hybrid Ensemble Learning Approach to Star-Galaxy Classification

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Edward J; Kind, Matias Carrasco

    2015-01-01

    There exist a variety of star-galaxy classification techniques, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we present a novel meta-classification framework that combines and fully exploits different techniques to produce a more robust star-galaxy classification. To demonstrate this hybrid, ensemble approach, we combine a purely morphological classifier, a supervised machine learning method based on random forest, an unsupervised machine learning method based on self-organizing maps, and a hierarchical Bayesian template fitting method. Using data from the CFHTLenS survey, we consider different scenarios: when a high-quality training set is available with spectroscopic labels from DEEP2, SDSS, VIPERS, and VVDS, and when the demographics of sources in a low-quality training set do not match the demographics of objects in the test data set. We demonstrate that our Bayesian combination technique improves the overall performance over any individual classification method in these scenarios. Thus, s...

  11. Ensemble Ionospheric Total Electron Content Forecasting during Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chartier, A.; Mitchell, C. N.; Lu, G.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Hoar, T. J.; Bust, G. S.; Matsuo, T.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's ionosphere presents a threat to human activities such as satellite positioning and timing, radio communications and surveillance. Nowcasts and forecasts of the ionosphere could help mitigate these damaging effects. Recent advances in the field of ionospheric imaging, as well as new storm-time ionospheric forecasting results are presented here. The approach combines globally distributed GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements with an ensemble of coupled thermosphere-ionosphere models in order to produce short-term forecasts during a storm. One-hour forecast accuracy is much better than a climatological model run. Using this ensemble approach, it is possible to infer the neutral O/N2 ratio from TEC measurements so that subsequent TEC forecasts are improved. A review of ionospheric physics and data assimilation will also be given. The term data assimilation refers to a group of techniques designed to estimate atmospheric or oceanic states. In practice, data assimilation techniques seek to improve modeled estimates of the atmospheric state by incorporating observations. The relationship between data assimilation and forecasting is explored with reference to the physics of the thermosphere-ionosphere system. The work presented here uses the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), which is an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation framework. This is combined with a version of the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) that has been modified to accept more detailed solar and geomagnetic driver specifications. Future directions of work include the inference of Solar and geomagnetic drivers from the data assimilation process as well as coupling with lower-atmospheric models.

  12. Local polynomial method for ensemble forecast of time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Regonda

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a nonparametric approach based on local polynomial regression for ensemble forecast of time series. The state space is first reconstructed by embedding the univariate time series of the response variable in a space of dimension (D with a delay time (τ. To obtain a forecast from a given time point t, three steps are involved: (i the current state of the system is mapped on to the state space, known as the feature vector, (ii a small number (K=α*n, α=fraction (0,1] of the data, n=data length of neighbors (and their future evolution to the feature vector are identified in the state space, and (iii a polynomial of order p is fitted to the identified neighbors, which is then used for prediction. A suite of parameter combinations (D, τ, α, p is selected based on an objective criterion, called the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV. All of the selected parameter combinations are then used to issue a T-step iterated forecast starting from the current time t, thus generating an ensemble forecast which can be used to obtain the forecast probability density function (PDF. The ensemble approach improves upon the traditional method of providing a single mean forecast by providing the forecast uncertainty. Further, for short noisy data it can provide better forecasts. We demonstrate the utility of this approach on two synthetic (Henon and Lorenz attractors and two real data sets (Great Salt Lake bi-weekly volume and NINO3 index. This framework can also be used to forecast a vector of response variables based on a vector of predictors.

  13. Near-infrared spectroscopy combined with equidistant combination partial least squares applied to multi-index analysis of corn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Ning; Chen, Jiemei; Pan, Tao; Yao, Lijun; Han, Yun; Yu, Jing

    2016-05-01

    Development of small, dedicated, reagentless, and low-cost spectrometer has broad application prospects in large-scale agriculture. An appropriate wavelength selection method is a key, albeit difficult, technical aspect. A novel wavelength selection method, named equidistant combination partial least squares (EC-PLS), was applied for wavenumber selection for near-infrared analysis of crude protein, moisture, and crude fat in corn. Based on the EC-PLS, a model set that includes various models equivalent to the optimal model was proposed to select independent and joint-analyses models. The independent analysis models for crude protein, moisture, and crude fat contained only 16, 12, and 22 wavenumbers, whereas the joint-analyses model for the three indicators contained only 27 wavenumbers. Random validation samples excluded from the modeling process were used to validate the four selected models. For the independent analysis models, the validation root mean square errors (V_SEP), validation correlation coefficients (V_RP), and relative validation root mean square errors (V_RSEP) of prediction were 0.271%, 0.946, and 2.8% for crude protein, 0.275%, 0.936, and 2.6% for moisture, and 0.183%, 0.924, and 4.5% for crude fat, respectively. For the joint-analyses model, the V_SEP, V_RP, and V_RSEP were 0.302%, 0.934, and 3.2% for crude protein, 0.280%, 0.935, and 2.7% for moisture, and 0.228%, 0.910, and 5.6% for crude fat, respectively. The results indicated good validation effects and low complexity. Thus, the established models were simple and efficient. The proposed wavenumber selection method provided also valuable reference for designing small dedicated spectrometer for corn. Moreover, the methodological framework and optimization algorithm are universal, such that they can be applied to other fields.

  14. Ensembles of satellite aerosol retrievals based on three AATSR algorithms within aerosol_cci

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosmale, Miriam; Popp, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Ensemble techniques are widely used in the modelling community, combining different modelling results in order to reduce uncertainties. This approach could be also adapted to satellite measurements. Aerosol_cci is an ESA funded project, where most of the European aerosol retrieval groups work together. The different algorithms are homogenized as far as it makes sense, but remain essentially different. Datasets are compared with ground based measurements and between each other. Three AATSR algorithms (Swansea university aerosol retrieval, ADV aerosol retrieval by FMI and Oxford aerosol retrieval ORAC) provide within this project 17 year global aerosol records. Each of these algorithms provides also uncertainty information on pixel level. Within the presented work, an ensembles of the three AATSR algorithms is performed. The advantage over each single algorithm is the higher spatial coverage due to more measurement pixels per gridbox. A validation to ground based AERONET measurements shows still a good correlation of the ensemble, compared to the single algorithms. Annual mean maps show the global aerosol distribution, based on a combination of the three aerosol algorithms. In addition, pixel level uncertainties of each algorithm are used for weighting the contributions, in order to reduce the uncertainty of the ensemble. Results of different versions of the ensembles for aerosol optical depth will be presented and discussed. The results are validated against ground based AERONET measurements. A higher spatial coverage on daily basis allows better results in annual mean maps. The benefit of using pixel level uncertainties is analysed.

  15. Control and Synchronization of Neuron Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Jr-Shin; Ruths, Justin

    2011-01-01

    Synchronization of oscillations is a phenomenon prevalent in natural, social, and engineering systems. Controlling synchronization of oscillating systems is motivated by a wide range of applications from neurological treatment of Parkinson's disease to the design of neurocomputers. In this article, we study the control of an ensemble of uncoupled neuron oscillators described by phase models. We examine controllability of such a neuron ensemble for various phase models and, furthermore, study the related optimal control problems. In particular, by employing Pontryagin's maximum principle, we analytically derive optimal controls for spiking single- and two-neuron systems, and analyze the applicability of the latter to an ensemble system. Finally, we present a robust computational method for optimal control of spiking neurons based on pseudospectral approximations. The methodology developed here is universal to the control of general nonlinear phase oscillators.

  16. Matrix averages relating to Ginibre ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forrester, Peter J [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Rains, Eric M [Department of Mathematics, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)], E-mail: p.forrester@ms.unimelb.edu.au

    2009-09-25

    The theory of zonal polynomials is used to compute the average of a Schur polynomial of argument AX, where A is a fixed matrix and X is from the real Ginibre ensemble. This generalizes a recent result of Sommers and Khoruzhenko (2009 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 42 222002), and furthermore allows analogous results to be obtained for the complex and real quaternion Ginibre ensembles. As applications, the positive integer moments of the general variance Ginibre ensembles are computed in terms of generalized hypergeometric functions; these are written in terms of averages over matrices of the same size as the moment to give duality formulas, and the averages of the power sums of the eigenvalues are expressed as finite sums of zonal polynomials.

  17. Clustering-based selective neural network ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FU Qiang; HU Shang-xu; ZHAO Sheng-ying

    2005-01-01

    An effective ensemble should consist of a set of networks that are both accurate and diverse. We propose a novel clustering-based selective algorithm for constructing neural network ensemble, where clustering technology is used to classify trained networks according to similarity and optimally select the most accurate individual network from each cluster to make up the ensemble. Empirical studies on regression of four typical datasets showed that this approach yields significantly smaller en semble achieving better performance than other traditional ones such as Bagging and Boosting. The bias variance decomposition of the predictive error shows that the success of the proposed approach may lie in its properly tuning the bias/variance trade-offto reduce the prediction error (the sum of bias2 and variance).

  18. Luminescence simulations of ensembles of silicon nanocrystals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lockwood, Ross; Meldrum, Al [Department of Physics, University of Alberta, Edmonton (Canada)

    2009-05-15

    The luminescence of silicon nanocrystals (NCs) has attracted a great deal of interest due to the numerous potential photonic applications of light-emitting silicon. However, the excitation mechanisms and cluster-cluster interactions in densely-packed ensembles, as well as the recombination processes that influence the emission spectrum and lifetime are not yet well understood. In order to generate a more complete picture of the controlling parameters in the luminescence, a dynamic Monte Carlo model that incorporates several key physical processes for luminescent nanocrystal ensembles is developed. The model simulates Forster-type multipole energy transfer, tunnelling interactions, radiative decay and non-radiative trapping in physically realistic (lognormal) distributions of silicon NCs. The results of the simulation illustrate the effects of the NC size distribution, homogeneous and inhomogeneous broadening, NC packing density, and non-radiative trapping on the ensemble luminescence spectrum. (copyright 2009 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  19. Embedded random matrix ensembles in quantum physics

    CERN Document Server

    Kota, V K B

    2014-01-01

    Although used with increasing frequency in many branches of physics, random matrix ensembles are not always sufficiently specific to account for important features of the physical system at hand. One refinement which retains the basic stochastic approach but allows for such features consists in the use of embedded ensembles.  The present text is an exhaustive introduction to and survey of this important field. Starting with an easy-to-read introduction to general random matrix theory, the text then develops the necessary concepts from the beginning, accompanying the reader to the frontiers of present-day research. With some notable exceptions, to date these ensembles have primarily been applied in nuclear spectroscopy. A characteristic example is the use of a random two-body interaction in the framework of the nuclear shell model. Yet, topics in atomic physics, mesoscopic physics, quantum information science and statistical mechanics of isolated finite quantum systems can also be addressed using these ensemb...

  20. Circular β ensembles, CMV representation, characteristic polynomials

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU ZhongGen

    2009-01-01

    In this note we first briefly review some recent progress in the study of the circular β ensemble on the unit circle, where 0 > 0 is a model parameter. In the special cases β = 1,2 and 4, this ensemble describes the joint probability density of eigenvalues of random orthogonal, unitary and sympletic matrices, respectively. For general β, Killip and Nenciu discovered a five-diagonal sparse matrix model, the CMV representation. This representation is new even in the case β = 2; and it has become a powerful tool for studying the circular β ensemble. We then give an elegant derivation for the moment identities of characteristic polynomials via the link with orthogonal polynomials on the unit circle.

  1. A Online NIR Sensor for the Pilot-Scale Extraction Process in Fructus Aurantii Coupled with Single and Ensemble Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoning Pan

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Model performance of the partial least squares method (PLS alone and bagging-PLS was investigated in online near-infrared (NIR sensor monitoring of pilot-scale extraction process in Fructus aurantii. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC was used as a reference method to identify the active pharmaceutical ingredients: naringin, hesperidin and neohesperidin. Several preprocessing methods and synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS and moving window partial least squares (MWPLS variable selection methods were compared. Single quantification models (PLS and ensemble methods combined with partial least squares (bagging-PLS were developed for quantitative analysis of naringin, hesperidin and neohesperidin. SiPLS was compared to SiPLS combined with bagging-PLS. Final results showed the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP of bagging-PLS to be lower than that of PLS regression alone. For this reason, an ensemble method of online NIR sensor is here proposed as a means of monitoring the pilot-scale extraction process in Fructus aurantii, which may also constitute a suitable strategy for online NIR monitoring of CHM.

  2. Classification of Cancer Gene Selection Using Random Forest and Neural Network Based Ensemble Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jogendra Kushwah

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The free radical gene classification of cancerdiseasesis challenging job in biomedical dataengineering. The improving of classification of geneselection of cancer diseases various classifier areused, but the classification of classifier are notvalidate. So ensemble classifier is used for cancergene classification using neural network classifierwith random forest tree. The random forest tree isensembling technique of classifier in this techniquethe number of classifier ensemble of their leaf nodeof class of classifier. In this paper we combinedneuralnetwork with random forest ensembleclassifier for classification of cancer gene selectionfor diagnose analysis of cancer diseases.Theproposed method is different from most of themethods of ensemble classifier, which follow aninput output paradigm ofneural network, where themembers of the ensemble are selected from a set ofneural network classifier. the number of classifiersis determined during the rising procedure of theforest. Furthermore, the proposed method producesan ensemble not only correct, but also assorted,ensuring the two important properties that shouldcharacterize an ensemble classifier. For empiricalevaluation of our proposed method we used UCIcancer diseases data set for classification. Ourexperimental result shows that betterresult incompression of random forest tree classification

  3. A Novel Bias Correction Method for Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS Soil Moisture: Retrieval Ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Hyoung Lee

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Bias correction is a very important pre-processing step in satellite data assimilation analysis, as data assimilation itself cannot circumvent satellite biases. We introduce a retrieval algorithm-specific and spatially heterogeneous Instantaneous Field of View (IFOV bias correction method for Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS soil moisture. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to present the probabilistic presentation of SMOS soil moisture using retrieval ensembles. We illustrate that retrieval ensembles effectively mitigated the overestimation problem of SMOS soil moisture arising from brightness temperature errors over West Africa in a computationally efficient way (ensemble size: 12, no time-integration. In contrast, the existing method of Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF matching considerably increased the SMOS biases, due to the limitations of relying on the imperfect reference data. From the validation at two semi-arid sites, Benin (moderately wet and vegetated area and Niger (dry and sandy bare soils, it was shown that the SMOS errors arising from rain and vegetation attenuation were appropriately corrected by ensemble approaches. In Benin, the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs decreased from 0.1248 m3/m3 for CDF matching to 0.0678 m3/m3 for the proposed ensemble approach. In Niger, the RMSEs decreased from 0.14 m3/m3 for CDF matching to 0.045 m3/m3 for the ensemble approach.

  4. Ensemble Kalman methods for inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was introduced by Evensen in 1994 (Evensen 1994 J. Geophys. Res. 99 10143–62) as a novel method for data assimilation: state estimation for noisily observed time-dependent problems. Since that time it has had enormous impact in many application domains because of its robustness and ease of implementation, and numerical evidence of its accuracy. In this paper we propose the application of an iterative ensemble Kalman method for the solution of a wide class of inverse problems. In this context we show that the estimate of the unknown function that we obtain with the ensemble Kalman method lies in a subspace A spanned by the initial ensemble. Hence the resulting error may be bounded above by the error found from the best approximation in this subspace. We provide numerical experiments which compare the error incurred by the ensemble Kalman method for inverse problems with the error of the best approximation in A, and with variants on traditional least-squares approaches, restricted to the subspace A. In so doing we demonstrate that the ensemble Kalman method for inverse problems provides a derivative-free optimization method with comparable accuracy to that achieved by traditional least-squares approaches. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that the accuracy is of the same order of magnitude as that achieved by the best approximation. Three examples are used to demonstrate these assertions: inversion of a compact linear operator; inversion of piezometric head to determine hydraulic conductivity in a Darcy model of groundwater flow; and inversion of Eulerian velocity measurements at positive times to determine the initial condition in an incompressible fluid. (paper)

  5. Efficient inference of protein structural ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Lane, Thomas J; Beauchamp, Kyle A; Pande, Vijay S

    2014-01-01

    It is becoming clear that traditional, single-structure models of proteins are insufficient for understanding their biological function. Here, we outline one method for inferring, from experiments, not only the most common structure a protein adopts (native state), but the entire ensemble of conformations the system can adopt. Such ensemble mod- els are necessary to understand intrinsically disordered proteins, enzyme catalysis, and signaling. We suggest that the most difficult aspect of generating such a model will be finding a small set of configurations to accurately model structural heterogeneity and present one way to overcome this challenge.

  6. SEIK - the unknown ensemble Kalman filter

    OpenAIRE

    Nerger, Lars; Janjic Pfander, Tijana; Hiller, Wolfgang; Schröter, Jens

    2009-01-01

    The SEIK filter (Singular "Evolutive" Interpolated Kalman filter) hasbeen introduced in 1998 by D.T. Pham as a variant of the SEEK filter,which is a reduced-rank approximation of the Extended KalmanFilter. In recent years, it has been shown that the SEIK filter isan ensemble-based Kalman filter that uses a factorization rather thansquare-root of the state error covariance matrix. Unfortunately, theexistence of the SEIK filter as an ensemble-based Kalman filter withsimilar efficiency as the la...

  7. Ensemble computing for the petroleum industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Computer downsizing is one of the most often used buzzwords in today's competitive business, and the petroleum industry is at the forefront of this revolution. Ensemble computing provides the key for computer downsizing with its first incarnation, i.e., workstation farms. This paper concerns the importance of increasing the productivity cycle and not just the execution time of a job. The authors introduce the concept of ensemble computing and workstation farms. The they discuss how different computing paradigms can be addressed by workstation farms

  8. Nondestructive analysis by combined X-ray tomography on a synchrotron radiation facility

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DENG Biao; YU Xiaohan; LI Aiguo; XU Hongjie

    2007-01-01

    A nondestructive X-ray analysis technique combining transmission tomography, fluorescence tomography and Compton tomography based on synchrotron radiation is described. This novel technique will be an optional experimental technique at SSRF's hard X-ray micro-focusing beamline under construction at present. An experimental result of combined X-ray tomography is obtained in NE-5A station of PF. The reconstructed images of test objects are given.

  9. Parametric analysis for a new combined power and ejector-absorption refrigeration cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new combined power and ejector-absorption refrigeration cycle is proposed, which combines the Rankine cycle and the ejector-absorption refrigeration cycle, and could produce both power output and refrigeration output simultaneously. This combined cycle, which originates from the cycle proposed by authors previously, introduces an ejector between the rectifier and the condenser, and provides a performance improvement without greatly increasing the complexity of the system. A parametric analysis is conducted to evaluate the effects of the key thermodynamic parameters on the cycle performance. It is shown that heat source temperature, condenser temperature, evaporator temperature, turbine inlet pressure, turbine inlet temperature, and basic solution ammonia concentration have significant effects on the net power output, refrigeration output and exergy efficiency of the combined cycle. It is evident that the ejector can improve the performance of the combined cycle proposed by authors previously.

  10. Saliva analysis combining membrane protein purification with surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy for nasopharyngeal cancer detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Shangyuan; Lin, Duo; Lin, Juqiang; Huang, Zufang; Chen, Guannan; Li, Yongzeng; Huang, Shaohua; Zhao, Jianhua; Chen, Rong; Zeng, Haishan

    2014-02-01

    A method for saliva analysis combining membrane protein purification with silver nanoparticle-based surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) for non-invasive nasopharyngeal cancer detection was present in this paper. In this method, cellulose acetate membrane was used to obtain purified whole proteins from human saliva while removing other native saliva constituents and exogenous substances. The purified proteins were mixed with silver nanoparticle for SERS analysis. A diagnostic accuracy of 90.2% can be achieved by principal components analysis combined with linear discriminate analysis, for saliva samples obtained from patients with nasopharyngeal cancer (n = 62) and healthy volunteers (n = 30). This exploratory study demonstrated the potential for developing non-invasive, rapid saliva SERS analysis for nasopharyngeal cancer detection.

  11. A unified MGF-based capacity analysis of diversity combiners over generalized fading channels

    KAUST Repository

    Yilmaz, Ferkan

    2012-03-01

    Unified exact ergodic capacity results for L-branch coherent diversity combiners including equal-gain combining (EGC) and maximal-ratio combining (MRC) are not known. This paper develops a novel generic framework for the capacity analysis of L-branch EGC/MRC over generalized fading channels. The framework is used to derive new results for the gamma-shadowed generalized Nakagami-m fading model which can be a suitable model for the fading environments encountered by high frequency (60 GHz and above) communications. The mathematical formalism is illustrated with some selected numerical and simulation results confirming the correctness of our newly proposed framework. © 2012 IEEE.

  12. Improving predictive mapping of deep-water habitats: Considering multiple model outputs and ensemble techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, Katleen; Jones, Daniel O. B.; Roberts, J. Murray; Huvenne, Veerle A. I.

    2016-07-01

    In the deep sea, biological data are often sparse; hence models capturing relationships between observed fauna and environmental variables (acquired via acoustic mapping techniques) are often used to produce full coverage species assemblage maps. Many statistical modelling techniques are being developed, but there remains a need to determine the most appropriate mapping techniques. Predictive habitat modelling approaches (redundancy analysis, maximum entropy and random forest) were applied to a heterogeneous section of seabed on Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic, for which landscape indices describing the spatial arrangement of habitat patches were calculated. The predictive maps were based on remotely operated vehicle (ROV) imagery transects high-resolution autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) sidescan backscatter maps. Area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy indicated similar performances for the three models tested, but performance varied by species assemblage, with the transitional species assemblage showing the weakest predictive performances. Spatial predictions of habitat suitability differed between statistical approaches, but niche similarity metrics showed redundancy analysis and random forest predictions to be most similar. As one statistical technique could not be found to outperform the others when all assemblages were considered, ensemble mapping techniques, where the outputs of many models are combined, were applied. They showed higher accuracy than any single model. Different statistical approaches for predictive habitat modelling possess varied strengths and weaknesses and by examining the outputs of a range of modelling techniques and their differences, more robust predictions, with better described variation and areas of uncertainties, can be achieved. As improvements to prediction outputs can be achieved without additional costly data collection, ensemble mapping approaches have clear value for spatial management.

  13. Finite strip method combined with other numerical methods for the analysis of plates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, M. S.; Li, Wenchang

    1992-09-01

    Finite plate strips are combined with finite elements or boundary elements in the analysis of rectangular plates with some minor irregularities such as openings, skew edges, etc. The plate is divided into regular and irregular regions. The regular region is analyzed by the finite strip method while the irregular one is analyzed by the finite element or boundary element method. A special transition element and strip are developed in order to connect the both regions. Numerical examples will show the accuracy and efficiency of this combined analysis.

  14. An Ensemble of 2D Convolutional Neural Networks for Tumor Segmentation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyksborg, Mark; Puonti, Oula; Agn, Mikael;

    2015-01-01

    Accurate tumor segmentation plays an important role in radiosurgery planning and the assessment of radiotherapy treatment efficacy. In this paper we propose a method combining an ensemble of 2D convolutional neural networks for doing a volumetric segmentation of magnetic resonance images...

  15. Distribution of level spacing ratios using one- plus two-body random matrix ensembles

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    N D Chavda

    2015-02-01

    Probability distribution (()) of the level spacing ratios has been introduced recently and is used to investigate many-body localization as well as to quantify the distance from integrability on finite size lattices. In this paper, we study the distribution of the ratio of consecutive level spacings using one-body plus two-body random matrix ensembles for finite interacting many-fermion and many-boson systems. () for these ensembles move steadily from the Poisson to the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) form as the two-body interaction strength is varied. Other related quantities are also used in the analysis to obtain critical strength c for the transition. The c values deduced using the () analysis are in good agreement with the results obtained using the nearest neighbour spacing distribution (NNSD) analysis.

  16. BRAID: A Unifying Paradigm for the Analysis of Combined Drug Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twarog, Nathaniel R.; Stewart, Elizabeth; Hammill, Courtney Vowell; A. Shelat, Anang

    2016-01-01

    With combination therapies becoming increasingly vital to understanding and combatting disease, a reliable method for analyzing combined dose response is essential. The importance of combination studies both in basic and translational research necessitates a method that can be applied to a wide range of experimental and analytical conditions. However, despite increasing demand, no such unified method has materialized. Here we introduce the Bivariate Response to Additive Interacting Doses (BRAID) model, a response surface model that combines the simplicity and intuitiveness needed for basic interaction classifications with the versatility and depth needed to analyze a combined response in the context of pharmacological and toxicological constraints. We evaluate the model in a series of simulated combination experiments, a public combination dataset, and several experiments on Ewing’s Sarcoma. The resulting interaction classifications are more consistent than those produced by traditional index methods, and show a strong relationship between compound mechanisms and nature of interaction. Furthermore, analysis of fitted response surfaces in the context of pharmacological constraints yields a more concrete prediction of combination efficacy that better agrees with in vivo evaluations. PMID:27160857

  17. Ensemble. Mobile Learning to Promote Social Inclusion

    OpenAIRE

    G. Bonaiuti; Ranieri, M.; P. Ravotto

    2010-01-01

    Final English Booklet of Ensemble project. Mobile learning, or m-learning, is the new term that is gaining ground in the educational technology vocabulary. The project has tried to find out how mobile devices could be integrated into learning settings to improve social inclusion.

  18. Canonical Ensemble Model for Black Hole Radiation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Jingyi Zhang

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, a canonical ensemble model for the black hole quantum tunnelling radiation is introduced. In this model the probability distribution function corresponding to the emission shell is calculated to second order. The formula of pressure and internal energy of the thermal system is modified, and the fundamental equation of thermodynamics is also discussed.

  19. Semi-classical approximation and microcanonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For quantum mechanical systems with spherically symmetric potential the improved W.K.B. approximation of Elworthy and Truman corresponds to the classical microcanonical ensemble in the limit where (h/2π) goes to zero, at least for small time. (orig.)

  20. NYYD Ensemble ja Riho Sibul / Anneli Remme

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Remme, Anneli, 1968-

    2001-01-01

    Gavin Bryarsi teos "Jesus' Blood Never Failed Me Yet" NYYD Ensemble'i ja Riho Sibula esituses 27. detsembril Pauluse kirikus Tartus ja 28. detsembril Rootsi- Mihkli kirikus Tallinnas. Kaastegevad Tartu Ülikooli Kammerkoor (Tartus) ja kammerkoor Voces Musicales (Tallinnas). Kunstiline juht Olari Elts

  1. AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J; Peterson, Maya

    2016-05-01

    Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree. PMID:27227721

  2. Partition Function of Interacting Calorons Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Deldar, Sedigheh

    2015-01-01

    We present a method for computing the partition function of a caloron ensemble taking into account the interaction of calorons. We focus on caloron-Dirac string interaction and show that the metric that Diakonov and Petrov offered works well in the limit where this interaction occurs. We suggest computing the correlation function of two polyakov loops by applying Ewald's method.

  3. Partition function of interacting calorons ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deldar, S.; Kiamari, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present a method for computing the partition function of a caloron ensemble taking into account the interaction of calorons. We focus on caloron-Dirac string interaction and show that the metric that Diakonov and Petrov offered, works well in the limit where this interaction occurs. We suggest computing the correlation function of two polyakov loops by applying Ewald's method.

  4. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Andy; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2015-04-01

    The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment was established in March, 2004, at a workshop hosted by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), and co-sponsored by the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Commission (EC). The HEPEX goal was to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to advance the understanding and adoption of hydrological ensemble forecasts for decision support. HEPEX pursues this goal through research efforts and practical implementations involving six core elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction enterprise: input and pre-processing, ensemble techniques, data assimilation, post-processing, verification, and communication and use in decision making. HEPEX has grown through meetings that connect the user, forecast producer and research communities to exchange ideas, data and methods; the coordination of experiments to address specific challenges; and the formation of testbeds to facilitate shared experimentation. In the last decade, HEPEX has organized over a dozen international workshops, as well as sessions at scientific meetings (including AMS, AGU and EGU) and special issues of scientific journals where workshop results have been published. Through these interactions and an active online blog (www.hepex.org), HEPEX has built a strong and active community of nearly 400 researchers & practitioners around the world. This poster presents an overview of recent and planned HEPEX activities, highlighting case studies that exemplify the focus and objectives of HEPEX.

  5. Tiered Evaluation in Large Ensemble Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, David

    1998-01-01

    Discusses the use of a tiered evaluation system (TES) that allows students to work at different levels, enables teachers to assess progress objectively, and presents students with appropriate challenges in the music ensembles. Focuses on how TES works and its advantages, considers the challenges and flexibility of TES, and provides samples. (CMK)

  6. Toward Manipulating Quantum Information with Atomic Ensembles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lukin, M.D.; André, A.; Eisaman, M.D.; Hohensee, M.; Phillips, D.F.; Wal, C.H. van der; Walsworth, R.L.; Zibrov, A.S.

    2003-01-01

    We review several ideas for manipulation of quantum information using atomic ensembles and photons and describe some preliminary experiments toward their implementation. In particular, we review a technique that allows for robust transfer of quantum states between light fields and metastable states

  7. Lorentz-invariant ensembles of vector backgrounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We consider gauge field theories in the presence of ensembles of vector backgrounds. While Lorentz invariance is explicitly broken in the presence of any single background, here, the Lorentz invariance of the theory is restored by averaging over a Lorentz-invariant ensemble of backgrounds, i.e., a set of background vectors that is mapped onto itself under Lorentz transformations. This framework is used to study the effects of a non-trivial but Lorentz-invariant vacuum structure or mass dimension two vector condensates by identifying the background with a shift of the gauge field. Up to now, the ensembles used in the literature comprise configurations corresponding to non-zero field tensors together with such with vanishing field strength. We find that even when constraining the ensembles to pure gauge configurations, the usual high-energy degrees of freedom are removed from the spectrum of asymptotic states in the presence of said backgrounds in Euclidean and in Minkowski space. We establish this result not only for the propagators to all orders in the background and otherwise at tree level but for the full propagator

  8. Large Ensembles of Regional Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Neil; Allen, Myles; Hall, Jim

    2016-04-01

    Projections of regional climate change have great utility for impact assessment at a local scale. The CORDEX climate projection framework presents a method of providing these regional projections by driving a regional climate model (RCM) with output from CMIP5 climate projection runs of global climate models (GCM). This produces an ensemble of regional climate projections, sampling the model uncertainty, the forcing uncertainty and the uncertainty of the response of the climate system to the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Using the weather@home project to compute large ensembles of RCMs via volunteer distributed computing presents another method of generating projections of climate variables and also allows the sampling of the uncertainty due to internal variability. weather@home runs both a RCM and GCM on volunteer's home computers, with the free-running GCM driving the boundaries of the RCM. The GCM is an atmosphere only model and requires forcing at the lower boundary with sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) data. By constructing SST and SIC projections, using projections of GHG and other atmospheric gases, and running the weather@home RCM and GCM with these forcings, large ensembles of projections of climate variables at regional scales can be made. To construct the SSTs and SICs, a statistical model is built to represent the response of SST and SIC to increases in GHG concentrations in the CMIP5 ensemble, for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This statistical model uses empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to represent the change in the long term trend of SSTs in the CMIP5 projections. A multivariate distribution of the leading principle components (PC) is produced using a copula and sampled to produce a timeseries of PCs which are recombined with the EOFs to generate a timeseries of SSTs, with internal variability added from observations. Hence, a large ensemble of SST projections is generated, with each SST

  9. Ensemble-based Kalman Filters in Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhaoxia PU; Joshua HACKER

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.

  10. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  11. Opportunities of fundamental and technical analysis combination in the forecasting of the Ukrainian stock prices

    OpenAIRE

    Inna Voloshyna

    2015-01-01

    The opportunities of fundametal and technical analysis combination in conditions of volatility on the Ukrainian stocks market were analysed in the article. The study determined that political and economic news as macroeconomic factors are the main in explaining of the causes of stock price movements in an unstable situation in the country. Also, the use of technical analysis in the prediction of price movements on the stock market is confirmed and the ways of technical and fundamental market ...

  12. Analysis of general and specific combining abilities of popcorn populations, including selfed parents

    OpenAIRE

    José Marcelo Soriano Viana; Frederico de Pina Matta

    2003-01-01

    Estimation of general and specific combining ability effects in a diallel analysis of cross-pollinating populations, including the selfed parents, is presented in this work. The restrictions considered satisfy the parametric values of the GCA and SCA effects. The method is extended to self-pollinating populations (suitable for other species, without the selfed parents). The analysis of changes in population means due to inbreeding (sensitivity to inbreeding) also permits to assess the predomi...

  13. An Integrated Strategy Framework (ISF) for Combining Porter's 5-Forces, Diamond, PESTEL, and SWOT Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Anton, Roman

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Porter's Five-Forces, Porter's Diamond, PESTEL, the 6th-Forths, and Humphrey's SWOT analysis are among the most important and popular concepts taught in business schools around the world. A new integrated strategy framework (ISF) combines all major concepts. PURPOSE Porter's Five-Forces, Porter's Diamond, PESTEL, the 6th-Forths, and Humphrey's SWOT analysis are among the most important and popular concepts taught in business schools around the world. A new integrated strategy fr...

  14. An Ensemble Method based on Particle of Swarm for the Reduction of Noise, Outlier and Core Point

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satish Dehariya

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The majority voting and accurate prediction of classification algorithm in data mining are challenging task for data classification. For the improvement of data classification used different classifier along with another classifier in a manner of ensemble process. Ensemble process increase the classification ratio of classification algorithm, now such par diagram of classification algorithm is called ensemble classifier. Ensemble learning is a technique to improve the performance and accuracy of classification and predication of machine learning algorithm. Many researchers proposed a model for ensemble classifier for merging a different classification algorithm, but the performance of ensemble algorithm suffered from problem of outlier, noise and core point problem of data from features selection process. In this paper we combined core, outlier and noise data (COB for features selection process for ensemble model. The process of best feature selection with appropriate classifier used particle of swarm optimization. Empirical results with UCI data set prediction on Ecoil and glass dataset indicate that the proposed COB model optimization algorithm can help to improve accuracy and classification.

  15. Analysis of the Interactions of Botanical Extract Combinations Against the Viability of Prostate Cancer Cell Lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynn S. Adams

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Herbal medicines are often combinations of botanical extracts that are assumed to have additive or synergistic effects. The purpose of this investigation was to compare the effect of individual botanical extracts with combinations of extracts on prostate cell viability. We then modeled the interactions between botanical extracts in combination isobolographically. Scutellaria baicalensis, Rabdosia rubescens, Panax-pseudo ginseng, Dendranthema morifolium, Glycyrrhiza uralensis and Serenoa repens were collected, taxonomically identified and extracts prepared. Effects of the extracts on cell viability were quantitated in prostate cell lines using a luminescent ATP cell viability assay. Combinations of two botanical extracts of the four most active extracts were tested in the 22Rv1 cell line and their interactions assessed using isobolographic analysis. Each extract significantly inhibited the proliferation of prostate cell lines in a time- and dose-dependent manner except repens. The most active extracts, baicalensis, D. morifolium, G. uralensis and R. rubescens were tested as two-extract combinations. baicalensis and D. morifolium when combined were additive with a trend toward synergy, whereas D. morifolium and R. rubescens together were additive. The remaining two-extract combinations showed antagonism. The four extracts together were significantly more effective than the two-by-two combinations and the individual extracts alone. Combining the four herbal extracts significantly enhanced their activity in the cell lines tested compared with extracts alone. The less predictable nature of the two-way combinations suggests a need for careful characterization of the effects of each individual herb based on their intended use.

  16. Reliability analysis of production ships with emphasis on load combination and ultimate strength

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiaozhi

    1995-05-01

    This thesis deals with ultimate strength and reliability analysis of offshore production ships, accounting for stochastic load combinations, using a typical North Sea production ship for reference. A review of methods for structural reliability analysis is presented. Probabilistic methods are established for the still water and vertical wave bending moments. Linear stress analysis of a midships transverse frame is carried out, four different finite element models are assessed. Upon verification of the general finite element code ABAQUS with a typical ship transverse girder example, for which test results are available, ultimate strength analysis of the reference transverse frame is made to obtain the ultimate load factors associated with the specified pressure loads in Det norske Veritas Classification rules for ships and rules for production vessels. Reliability analysis is performed to develop appropriate design criteria for the transverse structure. It is found that the transverse frame failure mode does not seem to contribute to the system collapse. Ultimate strength analysis of the longitudinally stiffened panels is performed, accounting for the combined biaxial and lateral loading. Reliability based design of the longitudinally stiffened bottom and deck panels is accomplished regarding the collapse mode under combined biaxial and lateral loads. 107 refs., 76 refs., 37 tabs.

  17. Forecasting and Analysis of Agricultural Product Logistics Demand in Tibet Based on Combination Forecasting Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenfeng; YANG

    2015-01-01

    Over the years,the logistics development in Tibet has fallen behind the transport. Since the opening of Qinghai-Tibet Railway in2006,the opportunity for development of modern logistics has been brought to Tibet. The logistics demand analysis and forecasting is a prerequisite for regional logistics planning. By establishing indicator system for logistics demand of agricultural products,agricultural product logistics principal component regression model,gray forecasting model,BP neural network forecasting model are built. Because of the single model’s limitations,quadratic-linear programming model is used to build combination forecasting model to predict the logistics demand scale of agricultural products in Tibet over the next five years. The empirical analysis results show that combination forecasting model is superior to single forecasting model,and it has higher precision,so combination forecasting model will have much wider application foreground and development potential in the field of logistics.

  18. Adoptive immunotherapy combined chemoradiotherapy for non-small-cell lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Haili; Wang, Haijuan; Guan, Xiuwen; Yi, Zongbi; Ma, Fei

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the efficacies between adoptive immunotherapy combined chemoradiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy alone in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The databases PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane database were searched to identify eligible clinical trials. Data analyses were carried out using a comprehensive meta-analysis program, version 2 software. A total of seven articles were finally included in the analysis. Meta-analyses showed that compared with chemoradiotherapy alone, adoptive immunotherapy combined with chemoradiotherapy could improve the 2-year overall survival [odds ratio (OR)=2.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.60-3.75, Pshiver, nausea, fatigue, etc. and severe toxicities were not observed. Adoptive immunotherapy combined with chemoradiotherapy can delay the recurrence of NSCLC and improve survival in patients, where the benefits are even more significant in patients with early-stage NSCLC. PMID:26872311

  19. Classifier-ensemble incremental-learning procedure for nuclear transient identification at different operational conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baraldi, Piero, E-mail: piero.baraldi@polimi.i [Dipartimento di Energia - Sezione Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano (Italy); Razavi-Far, Roozbeh [Dipartimento di Energia - Sezione Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Dipartimento di Energia - Sezione Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano (Italy); Ecole Centrale Paris-Supelec, Paris (France)

    2011-04-15

    An important requirement for the practical implementation of empirical diagnostic systems is the capability of classifying transients in all plant operational conditions. The present paper proposes an approach based on an ensemble of classifiers for incrementally learning transients under different operational conditions. New classifiers are added to the ensemble where transients occurring in new operational conditions are not satisfactorily classified. The construction of the ensemble is made by bagging; the base classifier is a supervised Fuzzy C Means (FCM) classifier whose outcomes are combined by majority voting. The incremental learning procedure is applied to the identification of simulated transients in the feedwater system of a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) under different reactor power levels.

  20. Black Hole Statistical Mechanics and The Angular Velocity Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Thomson, Mitchell

    2012-01-01

    An new ensemble - the angular velocity ensemble - is derived using Jaynes' method of maximising entropy subject to prior information constraints. The relevance of the ensemble to black holes is motivated by a discussion of external parameters in statistical mechanics and their absence from the Hamiltonian of general relativity. It is shown how this leads to difficulty in deriving entropy as a function of state and recovering the first law of thermodynamics from the microcanonical and canonical ensembles applied to black holes.

  1. System for Structural Synthesis Combines Finite-Element Analysis and Optimization Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, J. L., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    Programming System for Structural Synthesis, EAL/PROSSS, provides structural-synthesis capability by combining EAL and CONMIN computer programs with set of interface procedures. EAL is general-purpose finiteelement structural-analysis program; CONMIN is general-purpose optimization program. User supplies two smaller problem-dependent programs to define design variables, constraints, and objective function.

  2. Combined calibration and sensitivity analysis for a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perk, van der M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    1995-01-01

    A study was performed to quantify the error in results of a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland, due to uncertainties in calibrated model parameters. The procedure used in this study combines calibration and sensitivity analysis. Finally,the model was validated to test the model capabil

  3. Combined sequence-based and genetic mapping analysis of complex traits in outbred rats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baud, Amelie; Hermsen, Roel; Guryev, Victor; Stridh, Pernilla; Graham, Delyth; McBride, Martin W.; Foroud, Tatiana; Calderari, Sophie; Diez, Margarita; Ockinger, Johan; Beyeen, Amennai D.; Gillett, Alan; Abdelmagid, Nada; Guerreiro-Cacais, Andre Ortlieb; Jagodic, Maja; Tuncel, Jonatan; Norin, Ulrika; Beattie, Elisabeth; Huynh, Ngan; Miller, William H.; Koller, Daniel L.; Alam, Imranul; Falak, Samreen; Osborne-Pellegrin, Mary; Martinez-Membrives, Esther; Canete, Toni; Blazquez, Gloria; Vicens-Costa, Elia; Mont-Cardona, Carme; Diaz-Moran, Sira; Tobena, Adolf; Hummel, Oliver; Zelenika, Diana; Saar, Kathrin; Patone, Giannino; Bauerfeind, Anja; Bihoreau, Marie-Therese; Heinig, Matthias; Lee, Young-Ae; Rintisch, Carola; Schulz, Herbert; Wheeler, David A.; Worley, Kim C.; Muzny, Donna M.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Lathrop, Mark; Lansu, Nico; Toonen, Pim; Ruzius, Frans Paul; de Bruijn, Ewart; Hauser, Heidi; Adams, David J.; Keane, Thomas; Atanur, Santosh S.; Aitman, Tim J.; Flicek, Paul; Malinauskas, Tomas; Jones, E. Yvonne; Ekman, Diana; Lopez-Aumatell, Regina; Dominiczak, Anna F.; Johannesson, Martina; Holmdahl, Rikard; Olsson, Tomas; Gauguier, Dominique; Hubner, Norbert; Fernandez-Teruel, Alberto; Cuppen, Edwin; Mott, Richard; Flint, Jonathan

    2013-01-01

    Genetic mapping on fully sequenced individuals is transforming understanding of the relationship between molecular variation and variation in complex traits. Here we report a combined sequence and genetic mapping analysis in outbred rats that maps 355 quantitative trait loci for 122 phenotypes. We i

  4. Robustness Analysis of Road Networks: a Framework with Combined DTA Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, M.

    2008-01-01

    Network robustness is the ability of a road network functioning properly facing unpredictable and exceptional incidents. A systematical framework with combined dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models is designed for the analysis of road network robustness. With this framework, network performance co

  5. Urban Saturated Power Load Analysis Based on a Novel Combined Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of urban saturated power loads is helpful to coordinate urban power grid construction and economic social development. There are two different kinds of forecasting models: the logistic curve model focuses on the growth law of the data itself, while the multi-dimensional forecasting model considers several influencing factors as the input variables. To improve forecasting performance, a novel combined forecasting model for saturated power load analysis was proposed in this paper, which combined the above two models. Meanwhile, the weights of these two models in the combined forecasting model were optimized by employing a fruit fly optimization algorithm. Using Hubei Province as the example, the effectiveness of the proposed combined forecasting model was verified, demonstrating a higher forecasting accuracy. The analysis result shows that the power load of Hubei Province will reach saturation in 2039, and the annual maximum power load will reach about 78,630 MW. The results obtained from this proposed hybrid urban saturated power load analysis model can serve as a reference for sustainable development for urban power grids, regional economies, and society at large.

  6. Energetic analysis and optimisation of an integrated coal gasification-combined cycle power plant

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vlaswinkel, E.E.

    1992-01-01

    Methods are presented to analyse and optimise the energetic performance of integrated coal gasification-combined cycle (IGCC) power plants. The methods involve exergy analysis and pinch technology and can be used to identify key process parameters and to generate alternative design options for impro

  7. Combined EUV reflectance and X-ray reflectivity data analysis of periodic multilayer structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yakunin, S.N.; Makhotkin, I.A.; Nikolaev, K.V.; Kruijs, van de R.W.E.; Chuev, M.A.; Bijkerk, F.

    2014-01-01

    We present a way to analyze the chemical composition of periodical multilayer structures using the simultaneous analysis of grazing incidence hard X-Ray reflectivity (GIXR) and normal incidence extreme ultraviolet reflectance (EUVR). This allows to combine the high sensitivity of GIXR data to layer

  8. Process Monitoring by combining several signal-analysis results using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to improve reliability in detecting anomalies in nuclear power plant performance, a method is presented which is based on acquiring various characteristics of signal data using autoregressive, wavelet and fractal-analysis techniques. These characteristics are combined using a decision making approach based on fuzzy logic. This approach is able to detect and distinguish several system states

  9. Metal Oxide Gas Sensor Drift Compensation Using a Two-Dimensional Classifier Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hang Liu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Sensor drift is the most challenging problem in gas sensing at present. We propose a novel two-dimensional classifier ensemble strategy to solve the gas discrimination problem, regardless of the gas concentration, with high accuracy over extended periods of time. This strategy is appropriate for multi-class classifiers that consist of combinations of pairwise classifiers, such as support vector machines. We compare the performance of the strategy with those of competing methods in an experiment based on a public dataset that was compiled over a period of three years. The experimental results demonstrate that the two-dimensional ensemble outperforms the other methods considered. Furthermore, we propose a pre-aging process inspired by that applied to the sensors to improve the stability of the classifier ensemble. The experimental results demonstrate that the weight of each multi-class classifier model in the ensemble remains fairly static before and after the addition of new classifier models to the ensemble, when a pre-aging procedure is applied.

  10. The role of model dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter performance for chaotic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, G.-H.C.; McLaughlin, D.; Entekhabi, D.; Ahanin, A.

    2011-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is susceptible to losing track of observations, or 'diverging', when applied to large chaotic systems such as atmospheric and ocean models. Past studies have demonstrated the adverse impact of sampling error during the filter's update step. We examine how system dynamics affect EnKF performance, and whether the absence of certain dynamic features in the ensemble may lead to divergence. The EnKF is applied to a simple chaotic model, and ensembles are checked against singular vectors of the tangent linear model, corresponding to short-term growth and Lyapunov vectors, corresponding to long-term growth. Results show that the ensemble strongly aligns itself with the subspace spanned by unstable Lyapunov vectors. Furthermore, the filter avoids divergence only if the full linearized long-term unstable subspace is spanned. However, short-term dynamics also become important as non-linearity in the system increases. Non-linear movement prevents errors in the long-term stable subspace from decaying indefinitely. If these errors then undergo linear intermittent growth, a small ensemble may fail to properly represent all important modes, causing filter divergence. A combination of long and short-term growth dynamics are thus critical to EnKF performance. These findings can help in developing practical robust filters based on model dynamics. ?? 2011 The Authors Tellus A ?? 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  11. Bivariate ensemble model output statistics approach for joint forecasting of wind speed and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Sándor; Möller, Annette

    2016-06-01

    Forecast ensembles are typically employed to account for prediction uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models. However, ensembles often exhibit biases and dispersion errors, thus they require statistical post-processing to improve their predictive performance. Two popular univariate post-processing models are the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). In the last few years, increased interest has emerged in developing multivariate post-processing models, incorporating dependencies between weather quantities, such as for example a bivariate distribution for wind vectors or even a more general setting allowing to combine any types of weather variables. In line with a recently proposed approach to model temperature and wind speed jointly by a bivariate BMA model, this paper introduces an EMOS model for these weather quantities based on a bivariate truncated normal distribution. The bivariate EMOS model is applied to temperature and wind speed forecasts of the 8-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble and the 11-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and its predictive performance is compared to the performance of the bivariate BMA model and a multivariate Gaussian copula approach, post-processing the margins with univariate EMOS. While the predictive skills of the compared methods are similar, the bivariate EMOS model requires considerably lower computation times than the bivariate BMA method.

  12. A centralized real-time controller for the reservoir's management on the Seine River using ensemble weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ficchi, Andrea; Raso, Luciano; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Dorchies, David; Malaterre, Pierre-Olivier; Pianosi, Francesca; Van Overloop, Peter-Jules

    2013-04-01

    The reservoirs on the Seine River, upstream of Paris, are regulated with the objective of reducing floods and supporting low flows. The current management of these reservoirs is empirical, reactive, and decentralized, mainly based on filling curves, constructed from an analysis of historical floods and low flows. When inflows are significantly different from their seasonal average, this management strategy proves inefficient. Climate change is also a challenge, for the possible modification of future hydrologic conditions. To improve such management strategy, in this study we investigate the use of Tree-Based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC), a proactive and centralized method that uses all the information available in real-time, including ensemble weather forecasting. In TB-MPC, a tree is generated from an ensemble of weather forecast. The tree structure summarizes the information contained in the ensemble, specifying the time, along the optimization horizon, when forecast trajectories diverge and thus uncertainty is expected to be resolved. This information is then used in the model predictive control framework. The TB-MPC controller is implemented in combination with the integrated model of the water system, including a semi-distributed hydrologic model of the watershed, a simplified hydraulic model of the river network, and the four reservoir models. Optimization takes into account the cost associated to floods and low-flows, and a penalty cost based on the final reservoir storages. The performances of the TB-MPC controller will be simulated and compared with those of deterministic MPC and with the actual management performances. This work is part of the Climaware European project (2010-2013) set up to develop and to assess measures for sustainable water resources management regarding adaptation to climate change.

  13. Ensembles of signal transduction models using Pareto Optimal Ensemble Techniques (POETs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Sang Ok; Chakrabarti, Anirikh; Varner, Jeffrey D

    2010-07-01

    Mathematical modeling of complex gene expression programs is an emerging tool for understanding disease mechanisms. However, identification of large models sometimes requires training using qualitative, conflicting or even contradictory data sets. One strategy to address this challenge is to estimate experimentally constrained model ensembles using multiobjective optimization. In this study, we used Pareto Optimal Ensemble Techniques (POETs) to identify a family of proof-of-concept signal transduction models. POETs integrate Simulated Annealing (SA) with Pareto optimality to identify models near the optimal tradeoff surface between competing training objectives. We modeled a prototypical-signaling network using mass-action kinetics within an ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework (64 ODEs in total). The true model was used to generate synthetic immunoblots from which the POET algorithm identified the 117 unknown model parameters. POET generated an ensemble of signaling models, which collectively exhibited population-like behavior. For example, scaled gene expression levels were approximately normally distributed over the ensemble following the addition of extracellular ligand. Also, the ensemble recovered robust and fragile features of the true model, despite significant parameter uncertainty. Taken together, these results suggest that experimentally constrained model ensembles could capture qualitatively important network features without exact parameter information.

  14. 一种集成式不确定推理方法研究%Research on an Ensemble Method of Uncertainty Reasoning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贺怀清; 李建伏

    2011-01-01

    Ensemble learning is a machine learning paradigm where multiple models are strategically generated and combined to obtain better predictive performance than a single learning method.It was proven that ensemble learning is feasible and tends to yield better results.Uncertainty reasoning is one of the important directions in artificial intelligence.Various uncertainty reasoning methods have been developed and all have their own advantages and disadvantages.Motivated by ensemble learning, an ensemble method of uncertainty reasoning was proposed.The main idea of the new method is in accordance with the basic framework of ensemble learning,where multiple uncertainty reasoning methods is used in time and the result of various reasoning methods is integrated by some rules as the final result.Finally, theoretical analysis and experimental tests show that the ensemble uncertainty reasoning method is effective and feasible.%集成学习是采用某种规则把一系列学习器的结果进行整合以获得比单个学习器更好的学习效果的一种机器学习方法.研究表明集成学习是可行的,能取得比传统学习方法更好的性能.不确定推理是人工智能的重要研究方向之一,目前已经开发出了多种不确定推理方法,这些方法在实际应用中各有优缺点.借鉴集成学习,提出一种集成式不确定推理方法,其基本思想是按照一定的策略集成多种不确定推理方法,以提高推理的准确性.理论分析和实验结果验证了方法的合理性和可行性.

  15. A Synergy Method to Improve Ensemble Weather Predictions and Differential SAR Interferograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulmer, Franz-Georg; Adam, Nico

    2015-11-01

    A compensation of atmospheric effects is essential for mm-sensitivity in differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) techniques. Numerical weather predictions are used to compensate these disturbances allowing a reduction in the number of required radar scenes. Practically, predictions are solutions of partial differential equations which never can be precise due to model or initialisation uncertainties. In order to deal with the chaotic nature of the solutions, ensembles of predictions are computed. From a stochastic point of view, the ensemble mean is the expected prediction, if all ensemble members are equally likely. This corresponds to the typical assumption that all ensemble members are physically correct solutions of the set of partial differential equations. DInSAR allows adding to this knowledge. Observations of refractivity can now be utilised to check the likelihood of a solution and to weight the respective ensemble member to estimate a better expected prediction. The objective of the paper is to show the synergy between ensemble weather predictions and differential interferometric atmospheric correction. We demonstrate a new method first to compensate better for the atmospheric effect in DInSAR and second to estimate an improved numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble mean. Practically, a least squares fit of predicted atmospheric effects with respect to a differential interferogram is computed. The coefficients of this fit are interpreted as likelihoods and used as weights for the weighted ensemble mean. Finally, the derived weighted prediction has minimal expected quadratic errors which is a better solution compared to the straightforward best-fitting ensemble member. Furthermore, we propose an extension of the algorithm which avoids the systematic bias caused by deformations. It makes this technique suitable for time series analysis, e.g. persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI). We validate the algorithm using the well known

  16. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh;

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...

  17. A COMPREHENSIVE EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH FOR NEURAL NETWORK ENSEMBLES AUTOMATIC DESIGN

    OpenAIRE

    Bukhtoyarov, V.; Semenkin, E.

    2010-01-01

    A new comprehensive approach for neural network ensembles design is proposed. It consists of a method of neural networks automatic design and a method of automatic formation of an ensemble solution on the basis of separate neural networks solutions. It is demonstrated that the proposed approach is not less effective than a number of other approaches for neural network ensembles design.

  18. Time- and ensemble-averages in evolving systems: the case of Brownian particles in random potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bewerunge, Jörg; Ladadwa, Imad; Platten, Florian; Zunke, Christoph; Heuer, Andreas; Egelhaaf, Stefan U

    2016-07-28

    Anomalous diffusion is a ubiquitous phenomenon in complex systems. It is often quantified using time- and ensemble-averages to improve statistics, although time averages represent a non-local measure in time and hence can be difficult to interpret. We present a detailed analysis of the influence of time- and ensemble-averages on dynamical quantities by investigating Brownian particles in a rough potential energy landscape (PEL). Initially, the particle ensemble is randomly distributed, but the occupancy of energy values evolves towards the equilibrium distribution. This relaxation manifests itself in the time evolution of time- and ensemble-averaged dynamical measures. We use Monte Carlo simulations to study particle dynamics in a potential with a Gaussian distribution of energy values, where the long-time limit of the diffusion coefficient is known from theory. In our experiments, individual colloidal particles are exposed to a laser speckle pattern inducing a non-Gaussian roughness and are followed by optical microscopy. The relaxation depends on the kind and degree of roughness of the PEL. It can be followed and quantified by the time- and ensemble-averaged mean squared displacement. Moreover, the heterogeneity of the dynamics is characterized using single-trajectory analysis. The results of this work are relevant for the correct interpretation of single-particle tracking experiments in general. PMID:27353405

  19. Coupling Ensemble Kalman Filter with Four-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fuqing ZHANG; Meng ZHANG; James A. HANSEN

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system (4DVAR) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme (E4DVAR) benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence: the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect-and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.

  20. Extending the square root method to account for additive forecast noise in ensemble methods

    CERN Document Server

    Raanes, Patrick N; Bertino, Laurent

    2015-01-01

    A square root approach is considered for the problem of accounting for model noise in the forecast step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and related algorithms. The primary aim is to replace the method of simulated, pseudo-random, additive noise so as to eliminate the associated sampling errors. The core method is based on the analysis step of ensemble square root filters, and consists in the deterministic computation of a transform matrix. The theoretical advantages regarding dynamical consistency are surveyed, applying equally well to the square root method in the analysis step. A fundamental problem due to the limited size of the ensemble subspace is discussed, and novel solutions that complement the core method are suggested and studied. Benchmarks from twin experiments with simple, low-order dynamics indicate improved performance over standard approaches such as additive, simulated noise and multiplicative inflation.

  1. Combined Water-Oxygen Pinch Analysis with Mathematical Programming for Wastewater Treatment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋丽丽; 都健; 柴绍斌; 姚平经

    2006-01-01

    Water-oxygen pinch analysis is an effective method to decrease the wastewater quantity and improve the wastewater quality. But when multiple-contaminants are present, the method is difficult to be carried out. In this paper, the method that combines water-oxygen pinch analysis with mathematical programming is proposed. It obtains the general optimal solution and leads to the reuse stream that cannot be found only by pinch analysis. The new method is illustrated by an example, and the annual cost is reduced by 8.43% compared with the solution of literature.

  2. Phosphoproteomic analysis of the response of maize leaves to drought, heat and their combination stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuli eHu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Drought and heat stress, especially their combination, greatly affect crop production. Many studies have described transcriptome, proteome and phosphoproteome changes in response of plants to drought or heat stress. However, the study about the phosphoproteomic changes in response of crops to the combination stress is scare. To understand the mechanism of maize responses to the drought and heat combination stress, phosphoproteomic analysis was performed on maize leaves by using multiplex iTRAQ-based quantitative proteomic and LC-MS/MS methods. Five-leaf-stage maize was subjected to drought, heat or their combination, and the leaves were collected. Globally, heat, drought and the combined stress significantly changed the phosphorylation levels of 172, 149 and 144 phosphopeptides, respectively. These phosphopeptides corresponded to 282 proteins. Among them, 23 only responded to the combined stress and could not be predicted from their responses to single stressors; 30 and 75 only responded to drought and heat, respectively. Notably, 19 proteins were phosphorylated on different sites in response to the single and combination stresses. Of the seven significantly enriched phosphorylation motifs identified, two were common for all stresses, two were common for heat and the combined stress, and one was specific to the combined stress. The signaling pathways in which the phosphoproteins were involved clearly differed among the three stresses. Functional characterization of the phosphoproteins and the pathways identified here could lead to new targets for the enhancement of crop stress tolerance, which will be particularly important in the face of climate change and the increasing prevalence of abiotic stressors.

  3. Combined Analysis of all Three Phases of Solar Neutrino Data from the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

    CERN Document Server

    Aharmim, B; Anthony, A E; Barros, N; Beier, E W; Bellerive, A; Beltran, B; Bergevin, M; Biller, S D; Boudjemline, K; Boulay, M G; Cai, B; Chan, Y D; Chauhan, D; Chen, M; Cleveland, B T; Cox, G A; Dai, X; Deng, H; Detwiler, J A; DiMarco, M; Doe, P J; Doucas, G; Drouin, P -L; Duncan, F A; Dunford, M; Earle, E D; Elliott, S R; Evans, H C; Ewan, G T; Farine, J; Fergani, H; Fleurot, F; Ford, R J; Formaggio, J A; Gagnon, N; Goon, J TM; Graham, K; Guillian, E; Habib, S; Hahn, R L; Hallin, A L; Hallman, E D; Harvey, P J; Hazama, R; Heintzelman, W J; Heise, J; Helmer, R L; Hime, A; Howard, C; Huang, M; Jagam, P; Jamieson, B; Jelley, N A; Jerkins, M; Keeter, K J; Klein, J R; Kormos, L L; Kos, M; Kraus, C; Krauss, C B; Kruger, A; Kutter, T; Kyba, C C M; Lange, R; Law, J; Lawson, I T; Lesko, K T; Leslie, J R; Loach, J C; MacLellan, R; Majerus, S; Mak, H B; Maneira, J; Martin, R; McCauley, N; McDonald, A B; McGee, S R; Miller, M L; Monreal, B; Monroe, J; Nickel, B G; Noble, A J; O'Keeffe, H M; Oblath, N S; Ollerhead, R W; Gann, G D Orebi; Oser, S M; Ott, R A; Peeters, S J M; Poon, A W P; Prior, G; Reitzner, S D; Rielage, K; Robertson, B C; Robertson, R G H; Rosten, R C; Schwendener, M H; Secrest, J A; Seibert, S R; Simard, O; Simpson, J J; Skensved, P; Sonley, T J; Stonehill, L C; Tešić, G; Tolich, N; Tsui, T; Van Berg, R; VanDevender, B A; Virtue, C J; Tseung, H Wan Chan; Wark, D L; Watson, P J S; Wendland, J; West, N; Wilkerson, J F; Wilson, J R; Wouters, J M; Wright, A; Yeh, M; Zhang, F; Zuber, K

    2011-01-01

    We report results from a combined analysis of solar neutrino data from all phases of the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory. By exploiting particle identification information obtained from the proportional counters installed during the third phase, this analysis improved background rejection in that phase of the experiment. The combined analysis resulted in a total flux of active neutrino flavors from 8B decays in the Sun of (5.25 \\pm 0.16(stat.)+0.11-0.13(syst.))\\times10^6 cm^{-2}s^{-1}. A two-flavor neutrino oscillation analysis yielded \\Deltam^2_{21} = (5.6^{+1.9}_{-1.4})\\times10^{-5} eV^2 and tan^2{\\theta}_{12}= 0.427^{+0.033}_{-0.029}. A three-flavor neutrino oscillation analysis combining this result with results of all other solar neutrino experiments and the KamLAND experiment yielded \\Deltam^2_{21} = (7.41^{+0.21}_{-0.19})\\times10^{-5} eV^2, tan^2{\\theta}_{12} = 0.446^{+0.030}_{-0.029}, and sin^2{\\theta}_{13} = (2.5^{+1.8}_{-1.5})\\times10^{-2}. This implied an upper bound of sin^2{\\theta}_{13} < 0.053 a...

  4. Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, Christopher; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

  5. Generalized Penner model and the Gaussian beta ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Chair, Noureddine

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a new expression for the partition function of the generalized Penner model given by Goulden, Harer and Jackson is derived. The Penner and the orthogonal Penner partition functions are special cases of this formula. The parametrized Euler characteristic $\\xi^s_g(\\gamma)$ deduced from our expression of the partition function is shown to exhibit a contribution from the orbifold Euler characteristic of the moduli space of Riemann surfaces of genus $g$, with $s$ punctures, for all parameters $\\gamma$ and $g$ odd. The other contributions for $g$ even are linear combinations of the Bernoulli polynomials at rational arguments. It turns out that the free energy coefficients of the generalized Penner model in the continuum limit, are identical to those coefficients in the large $N$ expansion of the Gaussian $\\beta$-ensemble. Moreover, the duality enjoyed by the generalized Penner model, is also the duality symmetry of the Gaussian $\\beta$-ensemble. Finally, a shift in the 't Hooft coupling constant requ...

  6. Mining chemical patents with an ensemble of open systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leaman, Robert; Wei, Chih-Hsuan; Zou, Cherry; Lu, Zhiyong

    2016-01-01

    The significant amount of medicinal chemistry information contained in patents makes them an attractive target for text mining. In this manuscript, we describe systems for named entity recognition (NER) of chemicals and genes/proteins in patents, using the CEMP (for chemicals) and GPRO (for genes/proteins) corpora provided by the CHEMDNER task at BioCreative V. Our chemical NER system is an ensemble of five open systems, including both versions of tmChem, our previous work on chemical NER. Their output is combined using a machine learning classification approach. Our chemical NER system obtained 0.8752 precision and 0.9129 recall, for 0.8937 f-score on the CEMP task. Our gene/protein NER system is an extension of our previous work for gene and protein NER, GNormPlus. This system obtained a performance of 0.8143 precision and 0.8141 recall, for 0.8137 f-score on the GPRO task. Both systems achieved the highest performance in their respective tasks at BioCreative V. We conclude that an ensemble of independently-created open systems is sufficiently diverse to significantly improve performance over any individual system, even when they use a similar approach.Database URL: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/CBBresearch/Lu/Demo/tmTools/. PMID:27173521

  7. Force estimation from ensembles of Golgi tendon organs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mileusnic, M. P.; Loeb, G. E.

    2009-06-01

    Golgi tendon organs (GTOs) located in the skeletal muscles provide the central nervous system with information about muscle tension. The ensemble firing of all GTO receptors in the muscle has been hypothesized to represent a reliable measure of the whole muscle force but the precision and accuracy of that information are largely unknown because it is impossible to record activity simultaneously from all GTOs in a muscle. In this study, we combined a new mathematical model of force sampling and transduction in individual GTOs with various models of motor unit (MU) organization and recruitment simulating various normal, pathological and neural prosthetic conditions. Our study suggests that in the intact muscle the ensemble GTO activity accurately encodes force information according to a nonlinear, monotonic relationship that has its steepest slope for low force levels and tends to saturate at the highest force levels. The relationship between the aggregate GTO activity and whole muscle tension under some pathological conditions is similar to one seen in the intact muscle during rapidly modulated, phasic excitation of the motor pool (typical for many natural movements) but quite different when the muscle is activated slowly or held at a given force level. Substantial deviations were also observed during simulated functional electrical stimulation.

  8. Improved forecasting of thermospheric densities using multi-model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvidge, Sean; Godinez, Humberto C.; Angling, Matthew J.

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents the first known application of multi-model ensembles to the forecasting of the thermosphere. A multi-model ensemble (MME) is a method for combining different, independent models. The main advantage of using an MME is to reduce the effect of model errors and bias, since it is expected that the model errors will, at least partly, cancel. The MME, with its reduced uncertainties, can then be used as the initial conditions in a physics-based thermosphere model for forecasting. This should increase the forecast skill since a reduction in the errors of the initial conditions of a model generally increases model skill. In this paper the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), the US Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar Exosphere 2000 (NRLMSISE-00), and Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) have been used to construct the MME. As well as comparisons between the MMEs and the "standard" runs of the model, the MME densities have been propagated forward in time using the TIE-GCM. It is shown that thermospheric forecasts of up to 6 h, using the MME, have a reduction in the root mean square error of greater than 60 %. The paper also highlights differences in model performance between times of solar minimum and maximum.

  9. Meta-analysis of individual and combined effects of mycotoxins on growing pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ines Andretta

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Little is known about the toxicity of concomitantly occurring mycotoxins in pig diets. This study was conducted to evaluate, through meta-analysis, the individual and the combined effects of mycotoxins on pig performance. The meta-analysis followed three sequential analyses (graphical, correlation, and variance-covariance based on a database composed of 85 published papers, 1,012 treatments and 13,196 animals. Contamination of diets with individual mycotoxins reduced (p < 0.05 feed intake by 14 % and weight gain by 17 %, while combined mycotoxins reduced the same responses by 42 % and 45 %, respectively, in comparison with the non-challenged group. The correlation (p < 0.05 between reduction in weight gain (ΔG and reduction in feed intake (ΔFI was 0.67 in individual challenges and 0.93 in combined challenges. The estimated ΔG was –6 % in individual challenges and –7 % in combined challenges when ΔFI was zero, suggesting an increase in the maintenance requirements of challenged animals. Most of ΔG (58 % in individual challenges and 84 % in combined challenges was attributed to the changes in feed efficiency. The association of mycotoxins enhances individual toxic effects and the ΔFI is important in explaining the deleterious effects on the growth of challenged pigs.

  10. A standardised, holistic framework for concept-map analysis combining topological attributes and global morphologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Yoshi Buhmann

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Motivated by the diverse uses of concept maps in teaching and educational research, we have developed a systematic approach to their structural analysis. The basis for our method is a unique topological normalisation procedure whereby a concept map is first stripped of its content and subsequently geometrically re-arranged into a standardised layout as a maximally balanced tree following set rules. This enables a quantitative analysis of the normalised maps to read off basic structural parameters: numbers of concepts and links, diameter, in- and ex-radius and degree sequence and subsequently calculate higher parameters: cross-linkage, balance and dimension. Using these parameters, we define characteristic global morphologies: ‘Disconnected’, ‘Imbalanced’, ‘Broad’, ‘Deep’ and ‘Interconnected’ in the normalised map structure. Our proposed systematic approach to concept-map analysis combining topological normalisation, determination of structural parameters and global morphological classification is a standardised, easily applicable and reliable framework for making the inherent structure of a concept map tangible. It overcomes some of the subjectivity inherent in analysing and interpreting maps in their original form while also avoiding the pitfalls of an atomistic analysis often accompanying quantitative concept-map analysis schemes. Our framework can be combined and cross-compared with a content analysis to obtain a coherent view of the two key elements of a concept map: structure and content. The informed structural analysis may form the starting point for interpreting the underlying knowledge structures and pedagogical meanings.

  11. Potentialities of ensemble strategies for flood forecasting over the Milano urban area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Homar, Víctor; Romero, Romu; Lombardi, Gabriele; Mancini, Marco

    2016-08-01

    Analysis of ensemble forecasting strategies, which can provide a tangible backing for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean region, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international HyMeX programme. Here, we examine two severe hydrometeorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area and for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed. Indeed, flood damage have exponentially increased during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. First, we examine how land-use changes due to urban development have altered the hydrological response to intense rainfalls. Second, we test a flood forecasting system which comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. Accurate forecasts of deep moist convection and extreme precipitation are difficult to be predicted due to uncertainties arising from the numeric weather prediction (NWP) physical parameterizations and high sensitivity to misrepresentation of the atmospheric state; however, two hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have been designed to explicitly cope with uncertainties in the initial and lateral boundary conditions (IC/LBCs) and physical parameterizations of the NWP model. No substantial differences in skill have been found between both ensemble strategies when considering an enhanced diversity of IC/LBCs for the perturbed initial conditions ensemble. Furthermore, no additional benefits have been found by considering more frequent LBCs in a mixed physics ensemble, as ensemble spread seems to be reduced. These findings could help to design the most appropriate ensemble strategies before these hydrometeorological extremes, given the computational

  12. Inferring bi-directional interactions between circadian clock genes and metabolism with model ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Aderhold, Andrej; Husmeier, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    There has been much interest in reconstructing bi-directional regulatory networks linking the circadian clock to metabolism in plants. A variety of reverse engineering methods from machine learning and computational statistics have been proposed and evaluated. The emphasis of the present paper is on combining models in a model ensemble to boost the network reconstruction accuracy, and to explore various model combination strategies to maximize the improvement. Our results demonstrate that a r...

  13. Dynamic infrared imaging in identification of breast cancer tissue with combined image processing and frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joro, R; Lääperi, A-L; Soimakallio, S; Järvenpää, R; Kuukasjärvi, T; Toivonen, T; Saaristo, R; Dastidar, P

    2008-01-01

    Five combinations of image-processing algorithms were applied to dynamic infrared (IR) images of six breast cancer patients preoperatively to establish optimal enhancement of cancer tissue before frequency analysis. mid-wave photovoltaic (PV) IR cameras with 320x254 and 640x512 pixels were used. The signal-to-noise ratio and the specificity for breast cancer were evaluated with the image-processing combinations from the image series of each patient. Before image processing and frequency analysis the effect of patient movement was minimized with a stabilization program developed and tested in the study by stabilizing image slices using surface markers set as measurement points on the skin of the imaged breast. A mathematical equation for superiority value was developed for comparison of the key ratios of the image-processing combinations. The ability of each combination to locate the mammography finding of breast cancer in each patient was compared. Our results show that data collected with a 640x512-pixel mid-wave PV camera applying image-processing methods optimizing signal-to-noise ratio, morphological image processing and linear image restoration before frequency analysis possess the greatest superiority value, showing the cancer area most clearly also in the match centre of the mammography estimation. PMID:18666012

  14. Cost-effectiveness analysis of combination therapies for visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Meheus

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis is a systemic parasitic disease that is fatal unless treated. We assessed the cost and cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent. In particular we examined whether combination therapies are a cost-effective alternative compared to monotherapies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of all possible mono- and combination therapies for the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent (India, Nepal and Bangladesh from a societal perspective using a decision analytical model based on a decision tree. Primary data collected in each country was combined with data from the literature and an expert poll (Delphi method. The cost per patient treated and average and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios expressed as cost per death averted were calculated. Extensive sensitivity analysis was done to evaluate the robustness of our estimations and conclusions. With a cost of US$92 per death averted, the combination miltefosine-paromomycin was the most cost-effective treatment strategy. The next best alternative was a combination of liposomal amphotericin B with paromomycin with an incremental cost-effectiveness of $652 per death averted. All other strategies were dominated with the exception of a single dose of 10mg per kg of liposomal amphotericin B. While strategies based on liposomal amphotericin B (AmBisome were found to be the most effective, its current drug cost of US$20 per vial resulted in a higher average cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analysis showed the conclusion to be robust to variations in the input parameters over their plausible range. CONCLUSIONS: Combination treatments are a cost-effective alternative to current monotherapy for VL. Given their expected impact on the emergence of drug resistance, a switch to combination therapy should be considered once final results from clinical trials are

  15. Genetic Analysis and Combining Ability Studies for Yield Related Characters in Rapeseed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aamar Shehzad

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Combining ability analysis has a key position in rapeseed breeding. To estimate the combining ability effects for yield controlling traits in rapeseed, three testers and five lines were crossed using line × tester design in randomized complete block design with three replications. Mean sum of squares of analysis of variances for genotypes were significant for all of the traits; indicating the presence of significant genetic variation. All the interactions between lines and testers exhibited significant results of mean sum of squares for combining ability. Line ‘Duncled’ was found good general combiner for decreased Plant height (PH:-2.0, Days taken to 50% flowering (DF: -15.8 and Days taken to maturity (DM:-3.4 while tester ‘Punjab Sarson” for increased Number of seed/siliqua (SS: 2.2, Number of siliquae/plant (SP: 2.2 and decreased DF (-3.0 traits. Significant general and specific combining ability effects were observed. The best hybrid combination on the basis of specific combining ability effects was “Durre-NIFA × ZN-M-6” for Seed yield/plant (SY: 2.7, DF (-6.1 and DM (-3.5. PH (-0.2, Siliqua length (SL: -0.1, SS (-0.03 and SY (0.2 showed non-additive genetic effects. The half of the characters revealed additive and remaining half showed non-additive genetic effects. The present study unveiled the importance of both type of genetic effects demanding the application of integrated breeding approaches for exploiting the variability. ‘Punjab Sarson × ZN-M-6’ exposed maximum SS (30 and SP (837. Maximum SY (75.9g and minimum DF (64 were showed by ‘Legend × Duncled’. The present research delivers valuable information of genotypes for promoting yield by means of improving yield related characters.

  16. Combining ability analysis for seed and seedling vigor traits in rice (oryza sativa l.)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combining ability analysis was made in a 7x7 diallel cross for rate of germination index, seedling root length, seedling shoot length and seedling dry weight. Variances of general and specific combining ability were highly significant for all the traits indicating both additive and non-additive type of gene action. Higher magnitude of variances due to 'gca' suggested preponderance of the additive type of gene action except for seedling dry weight. IR25924-92-1-3 and TNAU (AD) 103 were good general combiners for rate of germination index where as IR50 and IR31779-19-3-3-2 were good general combiners for most of the traits studied. TNAU (AD) 103 x M148 and IR50 x IR9764-45-2-2 were the best specific combinations for R.G index. The best combinations R.G. index for seedling root length, seedling shoot length and seedling dry weight were TNAU (AD) 103 x M 148, IR9764-45-2-2 x M148, IR21820-154-3-2-2- x M148 and IR9764-45-2-2 x M148 respectively. (author)

  17. Ursgal, Universal Python Module Combining Common Bottom-Up Proteomics Tools for Large-Scale Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Lukas P M; Leufken, Johannes; Oyunchimeg, Purevdulam; Schulze, Stefan; Fufezan, Christian

    2016-03-01

    Proteomics data integration has become a broad field with a variety of programs offering innovative algorithms to analyze increasing amounts of data. Unfortunately, this software diversity leads to many problems as soon as the data is analyzed using more than one algorithm for the same task. Although it was shown that the combination of multiple peptide identification algorithms yields more robust results, it is only recently that unified approaches are emerging; however, workflows that, for example, aim to optimize search parameters or that employ cascaded style searches can only be made accessible if data analysis becomes not only unified but also and most importantly scriptable. Here we introduce Ursgal, a Python interface to many commonly used bottom-up proteomics tools and to additional auxiliary programs. Complex workflows can thus be composed using the Python scripting language using a few lines of code. Ursgal is easily extensible, and we have made several database search engines (X!Tandem, OMSSA, MS-GF+, Myrimatch, MS Amanda), statistical postprocessing algorithms (qvality, Percolator), and one algorithm that combines statistically postprocessed outputs from multiple search engines ("combined FDR") accessible as an interface in Python. Furthermore, we have implemented a new algorithm ("combined PEP") that combines multiple search engines employing elements of "combined FDR", PeptideShaker, and Bayes' theorem. PMID:26709623

  18. Long term Combination of Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring (TIGA) Analysis Center Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teferle, F. N.; Hunegnaw, A.

    2015-12-01

    The International GNSS Service (IGS) Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring (TIGA) Working Group (WG) has recently finallized their reprocessing campaign, using all relevant Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from 1995 to 2014. This re-processed dataset will provide high quality estimates of land motions, enabling regional and global high-precision geophysical/geodeticstudies. Several of the individual TIGA Analysis Centers (TACs) have completed processing the full history of GPS observations recorded by the IGS global network, as well as, many other GPS stationsat or close to tide gauges, which are available from the TIGA data centre at the University of La Rochelle (www.sonel.org). The TAC solutions contain a total of over 700 stations. Following the recentimprovements in processing models and strategies, this is the first complete reprocessing attempt by the TIGA WG to provide homogeneous position time series. The TIGA Combination Centre (TCC) atthe University of Luxembourg (UL) has computed a first multi-year weekly combined solution using two independent combination software packages: CATREF and GLOBK. These combinations allow anevaluation of any effects from the combination software and of the individual TAC contributions and their influences on the combined solution. In this study we will present the first UL TIGA multi-yearcombination results and discuss these in terms of geocentric sea level changes.

  19. Ursgal, Universal Python Module Combining Common Bottom-Up Proteomics Tools for Large-Scale Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Lukas P M; Leufken, Johannes; Oyunchimeg, Purevdulam; Schulze, Stefan; Fufezan, Christian

    2016-03-01

    Proteomics data integration has become a broad field with a variety of programs offering innovative algorithms to analyze increasing amounts of data. Unfortunately, this software diversity leads to many problems as soon as the data is analyzed using more than one algorithm for the same task. Although it was shown that the combination of multiple peptide identification algorithms yields more robust results, it is only recently that unified approaches are emerging; however, workflows that, for example, aim to optimize search parameters or that employ cascaded style searches can only be made accessible if data analysis becomes not only unified but also and most importantly scriptable. Here we introduce Ursgal, a Python interface to many commonly used bottom-up proteomics tools and to additional auxiliary programs. Complex workflows can thus be composed using the Python scripting language using a few lines of code. Ursgal is easily extensible, and we have made several database search engines (X!Tandem, OMSSA, MS-GF+, Myrimatch, MS Amanda), statistical postprocessing algorithms (qvality, Percolator), and one algorithm that combines statistically postprocessed outputs from multiple search engines ("combined FDR") accessible as an interface in Python. Furthermore, we have implemented a new algorithm ("combined PEP") that combines multiple search engines employing elements of "combined FDR", PeptideShaker, and Bayes' theorem.

  20. Ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation for the MPAS system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Soyoung; Snyder, Chris

    2015-04-01

    The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS; http://mpas-dev.github.io/) is a global non-hydrostatic numerical atmospheric model based on unstructured centroidal Voronoi meshes that allow both uniform and variable resolutions. The variable resolution allows locally high-resolution meshes that transition smoothly to coarser resolution over the rest of the globe, avoiding the need to drive a limited-area model with lateral boundary conditions from a separate global model. The nonhydrostatic MPAS solver (for both atmospheric and oceanic components) is now coupled to the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART; http://www.image.ucar.edu/ DAReS/DART) system with a full capability of ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation. The analysis/forecast cycling experiments using MPAS/DART is successfully tested with real observations for different retrospective cases. Assimilated observations are all conventional data as well as satellite winds and GPS radio occultation refractivity data. Testing on different grid mesh, we examine issues specific to the MPAS grid, such as smoothing in the interpolation and the update of horizontal wind fields, and show their impact on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) analysis and the following short-range forecast. Up to 5-day forecasts for a month-long cycle period are verified against observations and compared to the NCEP GFS (Global Forecast System) forecasts.