Analyses of moments in pseudorapidity intervals at √s = 546 GeV by means of two probability distributions in pure-birth process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biyajima, M.; Shirane, K.; Suzuki, N.

1988-01-01

Moments in pseudorapidity intervals at the CERN Sp-barpS collider (√s = 546 GeV) are analyzed by means of two probability distributions in the pure-birth stochastic process. Our results show that a probability distribution obtained from the Poisson distribution as an initial condition is more useful than that obtained from the Kronecker δ function. Analyses of moments by Koba-Nielsen-Olesen scaling functions derived from solutions of the pure-birth stochastic process are also made. Moreover, analyses of preliminary data at √s = 200 and 900 GeV are added

Statistical inference of the generation probability of T-cell receptors from sequence repertoires.

Science.gov (United States)

Murugan, Anand; Mora, Thierry; Walczak, Aleksandra M; Callan, Curtis G

2012-10-02

Stochastic rearrangement of germline V-, D-, and J-genes to create variable coding sequence for certain cell surface receptors is at the origin of immune system diversity. This process, known as "VDJ recombination", is implemented via a series of stochastic molecular events involving gene choices and random nucleotide insertions between, and deletions from, genes. We use large sequence repertoires of the variable CDR3 region of human CD4+ T-cell receptor beta chains to infer the statistical properties of these basic biochemical events. Because any given CDR3 sequence can be produced in multiple ways, the probability distribution of hidden recombination events cannot be inferred directly from the observed sequences; we therefore develop a maximum likelihood inference method to achieve this end. To separate the properties of the molecular rearrangement mechanism from the effects of selection, we focus on nonproductive CDR3 sequences in T-cell DNA. We infer the joint distribution of the various generative events that occur when a new T-cell receptor gene is created. We find a rich picture of correlation (and absence thereof), providing insight into the molecular mechanisms involved. The generative event statistics are consistent between individuals, suggesting a universal biochemical process. Our probabilistic model predicts the generation probability of any specific CDR3 sequence by the primitive recombination process, allowing us to quantify the potential diversity of the T-cell repertoire and to understand why some sequences are shared between individuals. We argue that the use of formal statistical inference methods, of the kind presented in this paper, will be essential for quantitative understanding of the generation and evolution of diversity in the adaptive immune system.

Indian Point 2 steam generator tube rupture analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dayan, A.

1985-01-01

Analyses were conducted with RETRAN-02 to study consequences of steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) events. The Indian Point, Unit 2, power plant (IP2, PWR) was modeled as a two asymmetric loops, consisting of 27 volumes and 37 junctions. The break section was modeled once, conservatively, as a 150% flow area opening at the wall of the steam generator cold leg plenum, and once as a 200% double-ended tube break. Results revealed 60% overprediction of breakflow rates by the traditional conservative model. Two SGTR transients were studied, one with low-pressure reactor trip and one with an earlier reactor trip via over temperature ΔT. The former is more typical to a plant with low reactor average temperature such as IP2. Transient analyses for a single tube break event over 500 seconds indicated continued primary subcooling and no need for steam line pressure relief. In addition, SGTR transients with reactor trip while the pressurizer still contains water were found to favorably reduce depressurization rates. Comparison of the conservative results with independent LOFTRAN predictions showed good agreement

Considerations of "Combined Probability of Injury" in the next-generation USA frontal NCAP.

Science.gov (United States)

Laituri, Tony R; Henry, Scott; Sullivan, Kaye; Nutt, Marvin

2010-08-01

The numerical basis for assigning star ratings in the next-generation USA New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) for frontal impacts was assessed. That basis, the Combined Probability of Injury, or CPI, is the probability of an occupant sustaining an injury to any of the specified body regions. For an NCAP test, a CPI value is computed by (a) using risk curves to convert body-region responses from a test dummy into body-region risks and (b) using a theoretical, overarching CPI equation to convert those separate body-region risks into a single CPI value. Though the general concept of applying a CPI equation to assign star ratings has existed since 1994, there will be numerous changes to the 2011 frontal NCAP: there will be two additional body regions (n = 4 vs. 2), the injury probabilities will be evaluated for lower-severity (more likely) injury levels, and some of the occupant responses will change. These changes could yield more disperse CPIs that could yield more disperse ratings. However, the reasons for this increased dispersion should be consistent with real-world findings. Related assessments were the topic of this two-part study, focused on drivers. In Part 1, the CPI equation was assessed without applying risk curves. Specifically, field injury probabilities for the four body regions were used as inputs to the CPI equation, and the resulting equation-produced CPIs were compared with the field CPIs. In Part 2, subject to analyses of test dummy responses from recent NCAP tests, the effect of risk curve choice on CPIs was assessed. Specifically, dispersion statistics were compared for CPIs based on various underlying risk curves applied to data from 2001-2005 model year vehicles (n = 183). From Part 1, the theoretical CPI equation for four body regions demonstrated acceptable fidelity when provided field injury rates (R(2)= 0.92), with the equation-based CPIs being approximately 12 percent lower than those of ideal correlation. From Part 2, the 2011 NCAP protocol

On the Generation of Random Ensembles of Qubits and Qutrits Computing Separability Probabilities for Fixed Rank States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khvedelidze Arsen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The generation of random mixed states is discussed, aiming for the computation of probabilistic characteristics of composite finite dimensional quantum systems. In particular, we consider the generation of random Hilbert-Schmidt and Bures ensembles of qubit and qutrit pairs and compute the corresponding probabilities to find a separable state among the states of a fixed rank.

A Probability Analysis of the Generating Cost for EU-APR1400 Single Unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ha, Gak Hyeon; Kim, Sung Hwan

2014-01-01

The nuclear power plant market is expected to grow rapidly in order to address issues of global warming, reducing CO 2 emissions and securing stable electricity supplies. Under these circumstances, the main primary goal of the EU-APR100 development is to ensure export competitiveness in the European countries. To this end, EU-APR1400 have been developed based one te APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor, GEN Type) The EU-APR1400 adds many advanced design features to its predecessor, as outlined below in Table 1. In this simulation, the results of the generating cost of the EU-APR1400 single unit were determined using the probability cost analysis technique, the generating cost range was shown to be 56.16 ∼ 70.92 won/kWh.

A Probability Analysis of the Generating Cost for EU-APR1400 Single Unit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ha, Gak Hyeon; Kim, Sung Hwan [KHNP CRI, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

The nuclear power plant market is expected to grow rapidly in order to address issues of global warming, reducing CO{sub 2} emissions and securing stable electricity supplies. Under these circumstances, the main primary goal of the EU-APR100 development is to ensure export competitiveness in the European countries. To this end, EU-APR1400 have been developed based one te APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor, GEN Type) The EU-APR1400 adds many advanced design features to its predecessor, as outlined below in Table 1. In this simulation, the results of the generating cost of the EU-APR1400 single unit were determined using the probability cost analysis technique, the generating cost range was shown to be 56.16 ∼ 70.92 won/kWh.

Application of a weighted spatial probability model in GIS to analyse landslides in Penang Island, Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samy Ismail Elmahdy

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the current study, Penang Island, which is one of the several mountainous areas in Malaysia that is often subjected to landslide hazard, was chosen for further investigation. A multi-criteria Evaluation and the spatial probability weighted approach and model builder was applied to map and analyse landslides in Penang Island. A set of automated algorithms was used to construct new essential geological and morphometric thematic maps from remote sensing data. The maps were ranked using the weighted probability spatial model based on their contribution to the landslide hazard. Results obtained showed that sites at an elevation of 100–300 m, with steep slopes of 10°–37° and slope direction (aspect in the E and SE directions were areas of very high and high probability for the landslide occurrence; the total areas were 21.393 km2 (11.84% and 58.690 km2 (32.48%, respectively. The obtained map was verified by comparing variogram models of the mapped and the occurred landslide locations and showed a strong correlation with the locations of occurred landslides, indicating that the proposed method can successfully predict the unpredictable landslide hazard. The method is time and cost effective and can be used as a reference for geological and geotechnical engineers.

Probabilistic approach in treatment of deterministic analyses results of severe accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krajnc, B.; Mavko, B.

1996-01-01

Severe accidents sequences resulting in loss of the core geometric integrity have been found to have small probability of the occurrence. Because of their potential consequences to public health and safety, an evaluation of the core degradation progression and the resulting effects on the containment is necessary to determine the probability of a significant release of radioactive materials. This requires assessment of many interrelated phenomena including: steel and zircaloy oxidation, steam spikes, in-vessel debris cooling, potential vessel failure mechanisms, release of core material to the containment, containment pressurization from steam generation, or generation of non-condensable gases or hydrogen burn, and ultimately coolability of degraded core material. To asses the answer from the containment event trees in the sense of weather certain phenomenological event would happen or not the plant specific deterministic analyses should be performed. Due to the fact that there is a large uncertainty in the prediction of severe accidents phenomena in Level 2 analyses (containment event trees) the combination of probabilistic and deterministic approach should be used. In fact the result of the deterministic analyses of severe accidents are treated in probabilistic manner due to large uncertainty of results as a consequence of a lack of detailed knowledge. This paper discusses approach used in many IPEs, and which assures that the assigned probability for certain question in the event tree represent the probability that the event will or will not happen and that this probability also includes its uncertainty, which is mainly result of lack of knowledge. (author)

Engineering design and exergy analyses for combustion gas turbine based power generation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sue, D.-C.; Chuang, C.-C.

2004-01-01

This paper presents the engineering design and theoretical exergetic analyses of the plant for combustion gas turbine based power generation systems. Exergy analysis is performed based on the first and second laws of thermodynamics for power generation systems. The results show the exergy analyses for a steam cycle system predict the plant efficiency more precisely. The plant efficiency for partial load operation is lower than full load operation. Increasing the pinch points will decrease the combined cycle plant efficiency. The engineering design is based on inlet air-cooling and natural gas preheating for increasing the net power output and efficiency. To evaluate the energy utilization, one combined cycle unit and one cogeneration system, consisting of gas turbine generators, heat recovery steam generators, one steam turbine generator with steam extracted for process have been analyzed. The analytical results are used for engineering design and component selection

Probability and stochastic modeling

CERN Document Server

Rotar, Vladimir I

2012-01-01

Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

Probability-1

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, Albert N

2016-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

A Probability Distribution over Latent Causes, in the Orbitofrontal Cortex.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Stephanie C Y; Niv, Yael; Norman, Kenneth A

2016-07-27

The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has been implicated in both the representation of "state," in studies of reinforcement learning and decision making, and also in the representation of "schemas," in studies of episodic memory. Both of these cognitive constructs require a similar inference about the underlying situation or "latent cause" that generates our observations at any given time. The statistically optimal solution to this inference problem is to use Bayes' rule to compute a posterior probability distribution over latent causes. To test whether such a posterior probability distribution is represented in the OFC, we tasked human participants with inferring a probability distribution over four possible latent causes, based on their observations. Using fMRI pattern similarity analyses, we found that BOLD activity in the OFC is best explained as representing the (log-transformed) posterior distribution over latent causes. Furthermore, this pattern explained OFC activity better than other task-relevant alternatives, such as the most probable latent cause, the most recent observation, or the uncertainty over latent causes. Our world is governed by hidden (latent) causes that we cannot observe, but which generate the observations we see. A range of high-level cognitive processes require inference of a probability distribution (or "belief distribution") over the possible latent causes that might be generating our current observations. This is true for reinforcement learning and decision making (where the latent cause comprises the true "state" of the task), and for episodic memory (where memories are believed to be organized by the inferred situation or "schema"). Using fMRI, we show that this belief distribution over latent causes is encoded in patterns of brain activity in the orbitofrontal cortex, an area that has been separately implicated in the representations of both states and schemas. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/367817-12$15.00/0.

Concise method for evaluating the probability distribution of the marginal cost of power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, S.H.; Li, Y.Z.

2000-01-01

In the developing electricity market, many questions on electricity pricing and the risk modelling of forward contracts require the evaluation of the expected value and probability distribution of the short-run marginal cost of power generation at any given time. A concise forecasting method is provided, which is consistent with the definitions of marginal costs and the techniques of probabilistic production costing. The method embodies clear physical concepts, so that it can be easily understood theoretically and computationally realised. A numerical example has been used to test the proposed method. (author)

An experimental study of the surface elevation probability distribution and statistics of wind-generated waves

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.

1980-01-01

Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.

Calculational framework for safety analyses of non-reactor nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coleman, J.R.

1994-01-01

A calculational framework for the consequences analysis of non-reactor nuclear facilities is presented. The analysis framework starts with accident scenarios which are developed through a traditional hazard analysis and continues with a probabilistic framework for the consequences analysis. The framework encourages the use of response continua derived from engineering judgment and traditional deterministic engineering analyses. The general approach consists of dividing the overall problem into a series of interrelated analysis cells and then devising Markov chain like probability transition matrices for each of the cells. An advantage of this division of the problem is that intermediate output (as probability state vectors) are generated at each calculational interface. The series of analyses when combined yield risk analysis output. The analysis approach is illustrated through application to two non-reactor nuclear analyses: the Ulysses Space Mission, and a hydrogen burn in the Hanford waste storage tanks

CONFIGURATION GENERATOR MODEL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alsaed, A.

2004-01-01

''The Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' prescribes an approach to the methodology for performing postclosure criticality analyses within the monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. An essential component of the methodology is the ''Configuration Generator Model for In-Package Criticality'' that provides a tool to evaluate the probabilities of degraded configurations achieving a critical state. The configuration generator model is a risk-informed, performance-based process for evaluating the criticality potential of degraded configurations in the monitored geologic repository. The method uses event tree methods to define configuration classes derived from criticality scenarios and to identify configuration class characteristics (parameters, ranges, etc.). The probabilities of achieving the various configuration classes are derived in part from probability density functions for degradation parameters. The NRC has issued ''Safety Evaluation Report for Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report, Revision 0''. That report contained 28 open items that required resolution through additional documentation. Of the 28 open items, numbers 5, 6, 9, 10, 18, and 19 were concerned with a previously proposed software approach to the configuration generator methodology and, in particular, the k eff regression analysis associated with the methodology. However, the use of a k eff regression analysis is not part of the current configuration generator methodology and, thus, the referenced open items are no longer considered applicable and will not be further addressed

A probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition for the critical components of wind turbine generator systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Y.; Li, H.; Liao, X

2016-01-01

method of early deterioration condition for critical components based only on temperature characteristic parameters. First, the dynamic threshold of deterioration degree function was proposed by analyzing the operational data between temperature and rotor speed. Second, a probability evaluation method...... of early deterioration condition was presented. Finally, two cases showed the validity of the proposed probability evaluation method in detecting early deterioration condition and in tracking their further deterioration for the critical components.......This study determines the early deterioration condition of critical components for a wind turbine generator system (WTGS). Due to the uncertainty nature of the fluctuation and intermittence of wind, early deterioration condition evaluation poses a challenge to the traditional vibration...

Radioactivity release vs probability for a steam generator tube rupture accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buslik, A.J.; Hall, R.E.

1978-01-01

A calculation of the probability of obtaining various radioactivity releases from a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) is presented. The only radioactive isotopes considered are Iodine-131 and Xe-133. The particular accident path considered consists of a double-ended guillotine SGTR followed by loss of offsite power (LOSP). If there is no loss of offsite power, and no system fault other than the SGTR, it is judged that the consequences will be minimal, since the amount of iodine released through the condenser air ejector is expected to be quite small; this is a consequence of the fact that the concentration of iodine in the vapor released from the condenser air ejector is very small compared to that dissolved in the condensate water. In addition, in some plants the condenser air ejector flow is automatically diverted to containment or a high-activity alarm. The analysis presented here is for a typical Westinghouse PWR such as described in RESAR-3S

Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1996-01-01

To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents are developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences can be analysed and assessed. The presnt paper outlines a method for evaluation of the probability of ship...

Probability of a steam generator tube rupture due to the presence of axial through wall cracks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mavko, B.; Cizelj, L.

1991-01-01

Using the Leak-Before-Break (LBB) approach to define tube plugging criteria a possibility to operate with through wall crack(s) in steam generator tubes may be considered. This fact may imply an increase in tube rupture probability. Improved examination techniques (in addition to the 100% tube examination) have been developed and introduced to counterbalance the associated risk. However no estimates of the amount of total increase or decrease of risk due to the introduction of LBB have been made. A scheme to predict this change of risk is proposed in the paper, based on probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis of axial cracks combined with available data of steam generator tube nondestructive examination reliability. (author)

Failure probability analyses for PWSCC in Ni-based alloy welds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udagawa, Makoto; Katsuyama, Jinya; Onizawa, Kunio; Li, Yinsheng

2015-01-01

A number of cracks due to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) in pressurized water reactors and Ni-based alloy stress corrosion cracking (NiSCC) in boiling water reactors have been detected around Ni-based alloy welds. The causes of crack initiation and growth due to stress corrosion cracking include weld residual stress, operating stress, the materials, and the environment. We have developed the analysis code PASCAL-NP for calculating the failure probability and assessment of the structural integrity of cracked components on the basis of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) considering PWSCC and NiSCC. This PFM analysis code has functions for calculating the incubation time of PWSCC and NiSCC crack initiation, evaluation of crack growth behavior considering certain crack location and orientation patterns, and evaluation of failure behavior near Ni-based alloy welds due to PWSCC and NiSCC in a probabilistic manner. Herein, actual plants affected by PWSCC have been analyzed using PASCAL-NP. Failure probabilities calculated by PASCAL-NP are in reasonable agreement with the detection data. Furthermore, useful knowledge related to leakage due to PWSCC was obtained through parametric studies using this code

Thermodynamic and carbon analyses of micro-generators for UK households

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, S.R.; Hammond, G.P.

2010-01-01

Micro-generators have the potential to reduce carbon emissions and enhance energy security by providing heat or electricity either from renewable sources, or via the more efficient use of fossil fuels. Such potential is often, however, unquantified or unclear, and hence a thermodynamic and related carbon analysis of micro-generators for UK household energy supply has been performed. Where pertinent, the thermodynamic concept of exergy is employed alongside that of energy. Analysis begins with a description of the established methods of energy supply to, and use within, typical UK households. On these foundations a grid-tied micro-wind turbine, a grid-tied solar photovoltaic array, and a solar hot-water system are analysed. Annual outputs are estimated and contextualised against the demands of representative households. The annual energy-resource and carbon savings provided by the micro-generators are determined on the basis that they (partially) displace the established supply systems. Savings are then compared with the energy-resource and carbon-emission 'debts' of the micro-generators, to assess the latter's net performance. Given appropriate installations, all three micro-generators are found to provide significant net energy and carbon benefits, confirming that all three technologies can provide net reductions in both carbon emissions and dependence on conventional energy resources.

78 FR 65007 - Inspections, Tests, Analyses, and Acceptance Criteria; Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, Unit 3

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-30

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [Docket No. 052-00026; NRC-2008-0252] Inspections, Tests, Analyses, and Acceptance Criteria; Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, Unit 3 AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Determination of inspections, tests, analyses, and acceptance criteria completion...

78 FR 53483 - Inspections, Tests, Analyses, and Acceptance Criteria; Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, Unit 3

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-29

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [Docket No. 052-00025; NRC-2008-0252] Inspections, Tests, Analyses, and Acceptance Criteria; Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, Unit 3 AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Determination of inspections, tests, analyses, and acceptance criteria (ITAAC) completion...

78 FR 53484 - Inspections, Tests, Analyses, and Acceptance Criteria; Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, Unit 4

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-29

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [Docket No. 052-00026; NRC-2008-0252] Inspections, Tests, Analyses, and Acceptance Criteria; Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, Unit 4 AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Determination of inspections, tests, analyses, and acceptance criteria (ITAAC) completion...

L’Analyse du Risque Géopolitique: du Plausible au Probable

OpenAIRE

Adib Bencherif

2015-01-01

This paper is going to explore the logical process behind risk analysis, particularly in geopolitics. The main goal is to demonstrate the ambiguities behind risk calculation and to highlight the continuum between plausibility and probability in risk analysis. To demonstrate it, the author introduces two notions: the inference of abduction, often neglected in the social sciences literature, and the Bayesian calculation. Inspired by the works of Louise Amoore, this paper tries to go further by ...

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

Quantifying and analysing food waste generated by Indonesian undergraduate students

Science.gov (United States)

Mandasari, P.

2018-03-01

Despite the fact that environmental consequences derived from food waste have been widely known, studies on the amount of food waste and its influencing factors have relatively been paid little attention. Addressing this shortage, this paper aimed to quantify monthly avoidable food waste generated by Indonesian undergraduate students and analyse factors influencing the occurrence of avoidable food waste. Based on data from 106 undergraduate students, descriptive statistics and logistic regression were applied in this study. The results indicated that 4,987.5 g of food waste was generated in a month (equal to 59,850 g yearly); or 47.05 g per person monthly (equal to 564.62 g per person per a year). Meanwhile, eating out frequency and gender were found to be significant predictors of food waste occurrence.

Failure probability analysis on mercury target vessel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishikura, Syuichi; Futakawa, Masatoshi; Kogawa, Hiroyuki; Sato, Hiroshi; Haga, Katsuhiro; Ikeda, Yujiro

2005-03-01

Failure probability analysis was carried out to estimate the lifetime of the mercury target which will be installed into the JSNS (Japan spallation neutron source) in J-PARC (Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex). The lifetime was estimated as taking loading condition and materials degradation into account. Considered loads imposed on the target vessel were the static stresses due to thermal expansion and static pre-pressure on He-gas and mercury and the dynamic stresses due to the thermally shocked pressure waves generated repeatedly at 25 Hz. Materials used in target vessel will be degraded by the fatigue, neutron and proton irradiation, mercury immersion and pitting damages, etc. The imposed stresses were evaluated through static and dynamic structural analyses. The material-degradations were deduced based on published experimental data. As a result, it was quantitatively confirmed that the failure probability for the lifetime expected in the design is very much lower, 10 -11 in the safety hull, meaning that it will be hardly failed during the design lifetime. On the other hand, the beam window of mercury vessel suffered with high-pressure waves exhibits the failure probability of 12%. It was concluded, therefore, that the leaked mercury from the failed area at the beam window is adequately kept in the space between the safety hull and the mercury vessel by using mercury-leakage sensors. (author)

Escape and transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjerke, M.A.

1980-01-01

An improved technique for the generation of escape and transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry was applied to the existing resonance cross section processing code ROLAIDS. The algorithm of Hwang and Toppel, [ANL-FRA-TM-118] (with modifications) was employed. The probabilities generated were found to be as accurate as those given by the method previously applied in ROLAIDS, while requiring much less computer core storage and CPU time

Updated greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emission factors and their probability distribution functions for electricity generating units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J.

2012-01-01

Greenhouse gas (CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO x , VOC, PM 10 , PM 2.5 and SO x , hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life-cycle modeling with GREET.

Trend analyses of the emergency diesel generator problem events in Japanese and U.S. nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio

2011-01-01

Up to 2009, the author and a colleague conducted trend analyses of problem events related to main generators, emergency diesel generators, breakers, motors and transformers which are more likely to cause problems than other electric components in nuclear power plants. Among the electric components with high frequency of defect occurrence, i.e., emergency diesel generators, several years have passed since the last analyses. These are very important components needed to stop a nuclear reactor safely and to cool it down during external power supply loses. Then trend analyses were conducted for the second time. The trend analyses were performed on 80 problem events with emergency diesel generators which had occurred in U.S. nuclear power plants in the five years from 2005 through 2009 among events reported in the Licensee Event Reports (LERs: event reports submitted to NRC by U.S. nuclear power plants) which have been registered in the nuclear information database of the Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc. (INSS) , as well as 40 events registered in the Nuclear Information Archives (NUCIA), which occurred in Japanese nuclear power plants in the same time period. It was learned from the trend analyses of the problem events with emergency diesel generators that frequency of defect occurrence are high in both Japanese and US plants during plant operations and functional tests (that is, defects can be discovered effectively in advance), so that implementation of periodical functional tests under plant operation is an important task for the future. (author)

Employment and Wage Assimilation of Male First Generation Immigrants in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Husted, Leif; Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Rosholm, Michael

2000-01-01

Labour market assimilation of Danish first generation male immigrants is analysed based on two panel data sets covering the population of immigrants and 10% of the Danish population during 1984-1995. Wages and employment probabilities are estimated jointly in a random effects model which corrects...... for unobserved cohort and individual effects and panel selectivity due to missing wage information. The results show that immigrants assimilate partially to Danes, but the assimilation process differs between refugees and non-refugees.......Labour market assimilation of Danish first generation male immigrants is analysed based on two panel data sets covering the population of immigrants and 10% of the Danish population during 1984-1995. Wages and employment probabilities are estimated jointly in a random effects model which corrects...

Employment and Wage assimilation of Male First Generation Immigrants in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Husted, Leif; Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Rosholm, Michael

Labour market assimilation of Danish first generation male immigrants is analysed based on two panel data sets covering the population of immigrants and 10% of the Danish population during 1984-1995. Wages and employment probabilities are estimated jointly in a random effects model which corrects...... for unobserved cohort and individual effects and panel selectivity due to missing wage information. The results show that immigrants assimilate partially to Danes, but the assimilation process differs between refugees and non-refugees.......Labour market assimilation of Danish first generation male immigrants is analysed based on two panel data sets covering the population of immigrants and 10% of the Danish population during 1984-1995. Wages and employment probabilities are estimated jointly in a random effects model which corrects...

Uncertainties and quantification of common cause failure rates and probabilities for system analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaurio, Jussi K.

2005-01-01

Simultaneous failures of multiple components due to common causes at random times are modelled by constant multiple-failure rates. A procedure is described for quantification of common cause failure (CCF) basic event probabilities for system models using plant-specific and multiple-plant failure-event data. Methodology is presented for estimating CCF-rates from event data contaminated with assessment uncertainties. Generalised impact vectors determine the moments for the rates of individual systems or plants. These moments determine the effective numbers of events and observation times to be input to a Bayesian formalism to obtain plant-specific posterior CCF-rates. The rates are used to determine plant-specific common cause event probabilities for the basic events of explicit fault tree models depending on test intervals, test schedules and repair policies. Three methods are presented to determine these probabilities such that the correct time-average system unavailability can be obtained with single fault tree quantification. Recommended numerical values are given and examples illustrate different aspects of the methodology

Technical report. The application of probability-generating functions to linear-quadratic radiation survival curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Kendal, W S

2000-04-01

To illustrate how probability-generating functions (PGFs) can be employed to derive a simple probabilistic model for clonogenic survival after exposure to ionizing irradiation. Both repairable and irreparable radiation damage to DNA were assumed to occur by independent (Poisson) processes, at intensities proportional to the irradiation dose. Also, repairable damage was assumed to be either repaired or further (lethally) injured according to a third (Bernoulli) process, with the probability of lethal conversion being directly proportional to dose. Using the algebra of PGFs, these three processes were combined to yield a composite PGF that described the distribution of lethal DNA lesions in irradiated cells. The composite PGF characterized a Poisson distribution with mean, chiD+betaD2, where D was dose and alpha and beta were radiobiological constants. This distribution yielded the conventional linear-quadratic survival equation. To test the composite model, the derived distribution was used to predict the frequencies of multiple chromosomal aberrations in irradiated human lymphocytes. The predictions agreed well with observation. This probabilistic model was consistent with single-hit mechanisms, but it was not consistent with binary misrepair mechanisms. A stochastic model for radiation survival has been constructed from elementary PGFs that exactly yields the linear-quadratic relationship. This approach can be used to investigate other simple probabilistic survival models.

Probability function of breaking-limited surface elevation. [wind generated waves of ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Tung, C. C.; Huang, N. E.; Yuan, Y.; Long, S. R.

1989-01-01

The effect of wave breaking on the probability function of surface elevation is examined. The surface elevation limited by wave breaking zeta sub b(t) is first related to the original wave elevation zeta(t) and its second derivative. An approximate, second-order, nonlinear, non-Gaussian model for zeta(t) of arbitrary but moderate bandwidth is presented, and an expression for the probability density function zeta sub b(t) is derived. The results show clearly that the effect of wave breaking on the probability density function of surface elevation is to introduce a secondary hump on the positive side of the probability density function, a phenomenon also observed in wind wave tank experiments.

Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

Science.gov (United States)

Zak, M.

1996-01-01

It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

Probability elements of the mathematical theory

CERN Document Server

Heathcote, C R

2000-01-01

Designed for students studying mathematical statistics and probability after completing a course in calculus and real variables, this text deals with basic notions of probability spaces, random variables, distribution functions and generating functions, as well as joint distributions and the convergence properties of sequences of random variables. Includes worked examples and over 250 exercises with solutions.

Updated greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emission factors and their probability distribution functions for electricity generating units

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J. (Energy Systems)

2012-07-06

Greenhouse gas (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM{sub 10}, PM{sub 2.5} and SO{sub x}, hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life

Cloud-based bioinformatics workflow platform for large-scale next-generation sequencing analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bo; Madduri, Ravi K; Sotomayor, Borja; Chard, Kyle; Lacinski, Lukasz; Dave, Utpal J; Li, Jianqiang; Liu, Chunchen; Foster, Ian T

2014-06-01

Due to the upcoming data deluge of genome data, the need for storing and processing large-scale genome data, easy access to biomedical analyses tools, efficient data sharing and retrieval has presented significant challenges. The variability in data volume results in variable computing and storage requirements, therefore biomedical researchers are pursuing more reliable, dynamic and convenient methods for conducting sequencing analyses. This paper proposes a Cloud-based bioinformatics workflow platform for large-scale next-generation sequencing analyses, which enables reliable and highly scalable execution of sequencing analyses workflows in a fully automated manner. Our platform extends the existing Galaxy workflow system by adding data management capabilities for transferring large quantities of data efficiently and reliably (via Globus Transfer), domain-specific analyses tools preconfigured for immediate use by researchers (via user-specific tools integration), automatic deployment on Cloud for on-demand resource allocation and pay-as-you-go pricing (via Globus Provision), a Cloud provisioning tool for auto-scaling (via HTCondor scheduler), and the support for validating the correctness of workflows (via semantic verification tools). Two bioinformatics workflow use cases as well as performance evaluation are presented to validate the feasibility of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analyses of thermodynamic performance for the endoreversible Otto cycle with the concepts of entropy generation and entransy

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WU; YanQiu

2017-01-01

In this paper,power the the and endoreversible the Otto cycle is analyzed with the entropy generation minimization objectives,and the the entransy theory.of The output power,the heat-work conversion efficiency are taken as the optimization rate,and relationships the output heat-work conversion efficiency,entransy the entropy generation and the entropy generation rate numbers,the work entransy are loss rate,The entransy loss of coefficient,the dissipation rate the entransy variation associated with discussed.applicability entropy the entropy generation minimization and the entransy theory while to the analyses is also analyzed.It is found do that smaller generation rate does not always lead to larger output our power,smaller entropy entransy generation loss numbers and not always lead to larger heat-work conversion efficiency,either.larger the In calculations,power,both larger larger rate larger entransy variation heat-work rate associated with work correspond also to that output while entransy is loss coefficient suitable results the in larger conversion developed efficiency.It is found concept of entransy dissipation not always for analyses because it was for heat transfer.

Analyses of an air conditioning system with entropy generation minimization and entransy theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Yan-Qiu; Cai Li; Wu Hong-Juan

2016-01-01

In this paper, based on the generalized heat transfer law, an air conditioning system is analyzed with the entropy generation minimization and the entransy theory. Taking the coefficient of performance (denoted as COP ) and heat flow rate Q out which is released into the room as the optimization objectives, we discuss the applicabilities of the entropy generation minimization and entransy theory to the optimizations. Five numerical cases are presented. Combining the numerical results and theoretical analyses, we can conclude that the optimization applicabilities of the two theories are conditional. If Q out is the optimization objective, larger entransy increase rate always leads to larger Q out , while smaller entropy generation rate does not. If we take COP as the optimization objective, neither the entropy generation minimization nor the concept of entransy increase is always applicable. Furthermore, we find that the concept of entransy dissipation is not applicable for the discussed cases. (paper)

Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio

2000-01-01

It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

Advanced exergy-based analyses applied to a system including LNG regasification and electricity generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morosuk, Tatiana; Tsatsaronis, George; Boyano, Alicia; Gantiva, Camilo [Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany)

2012-07-01

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) will contribute more in the future than in the past to the overall energy supply in the world. The paper discusses the application of advanced exergy-based analyses to a recently developed LNG-based cogeneration system. These analyses include advanced exergetic, advanced exergoeconomic, and advanced exergoenvironmental analyses in which thermodynamic inefficiencies (exergy destruction), costs, and environmental impacts have been split into avoidable and unavoidable parts. With the aid of these analyses, the potentials for improving the thermodynamic efficiency and for reducing the overall cost and the overall environmental impact are revealed. The objectives of this paper are to demonstrate (a) the potential for generating electricity while regasifying LNG and (b) some of the capabilities associated with advanced exergy-based methods. The most important subsystems and components are identified, and suggestions for improving them are made. (orig.)

Input-profile-based software failure probability quantification for safety signal generation systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Hyun Gook; Lim, Ho Gon; Lee, Ho Jung; Kim, Man Cheol; Jang, Seung Cheol

2009-01-01

The approaches for software failure probability estimation are mainly based on the results of testing. Test cases represent the inputs, which are encountered in an actual use. The test inputs for the safety-critical application such as a reactor protection system (RPS) of a nuclear power plant are the inputs which cause the activation of protective action such as a reactor trip. A digital system treats inputs from instrumentation sensors as discrete digital values by using an analog-to-digital converter. Input profile must be determined in consideration of these characteristics for effective software failure probability quantification. Another important characteristic of software testing is that we do not have to repeat the test for the same input value since the software response is deterministic for each specific digital input. With these considerations, we propose an effective software testing method for quantifying the failure probability. As an example application, the input profile of the digital RPS is developed based on the typical plant data. The proposed method in this study is expected to provide a simple but realistic mean to quantify the software failure probability based on input profile and system dynamics.

Collection of offshore human error probability data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basra, Gurpreet; Kirwan, Barry

1998-01-01

Accidents such as Piper Alpha have increased concern about the effects of human errors in complex systems. Such accidents can in theory be predicted and prevented by risk assessment, and in particular human reliability assessment (HRA), but HRA ideally requires qualitative and quantitative human error data. A research initiative at the University of Birmingham led to the development of CORE-DATA, a Computerised Human Error Data Base. This system currently contains a reasonably large number of human error data points, collected from a variety of mainly nuclear-power related sources. This article outlines a recent offshore data collection study, concerned with collecting lifeboat evacuation data. Data collection methods are outlined and a selection of human error probabilities generated as a result of the study are provided. These data give insights into the type of errors and human failure rates that could be utilised to support offshore risk analyses

Sensitivity analyses on in-vessel hydrogen generation for KNGR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, See Darl; Park, S.Y.; Park, S.H.; Park, J.H.

2001-03-01

Sensitivity analyses for the in-vessel hydrogen generation, using the MELCOR program, are described in this report for the Korean Next Generation Reactor. The typical accident sequences of a station blackout and a large LOCA scenario are selected. A lower head failure model, a Zircaloy oxidation reaction model and a B 4 C reaction model are considered for the sensitivity parameters. As for the base case, 1273.15K for a failure temperature of the penetrations or the lower head, an Urbanic-Heidrich correlation for the Zircaloy oxidation reaction model and the B 4 C reaction model are used. Case 1 used 1650K as the failure temperature for the penetrations and Case 2 considered creep rupture instead of penetration failure. Case 3 used a MATPRO-EG and G correlation for the Zircaloy oxidation reaction model and Case 4 turned off the B 4 C reaction model. The results of the studies are summarized below : (1) When the penetration failure temperature is higher, or the creep rupture failure model is considered, the amount of hydrogen increases for two sequences. (2) When the MATPRO-EG and G correlation for a Zircaloy oxidation reaction is considered, the amount of hydrogen is less than the Urbanic-Heidrich correlation (Base case) for both scenarios. (3) When the B 4 C reaction model turns off, the amount of hydrogen decreases for two sequences

Analysing and evaluating the task of automatic tweet generation: Knowledge to business

OpenAIRE

Lloret, Elena; Palomar, Manuel

2016-01-01

In this paper a study concerning the evaluation and analysis of natural language tweets is presented. Based on our experience in text summarisation, we carry out a deep analysis on user's perception through the evaluation of tweets manual and automatically generated from news. Specifically, we consider two key issues of a tweet: its informativeness and its interestingness. Therefore, we analyse: (1) do users equally perceive manual and automatic tweets?; (2) what linguistic features a good tw...

Analyses of reliability characteristics of emergency diesel generator population using empirical Bayes methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Uryas'ev, S.P.; Samanta, P.K.

1993-01-01

Emergency Diesel Generators (EDGs) provide backup power to nuclear power plants in case of failure of AC buses. The reliability of EDGs is important to assure response to loss-of-offsite power accident scenarios, a dominant contributor to the plant risk. The reliable performance of EDGs has been of concern both for regulators and plant operators. In this paper the authors present an approach and results from the analysis of failure data from a large population of EDGs. They used empirical Bayes approach to obtain both the population distribution and the individual failure probabilities from EDGs failure to start and load-run data over 4 years for 194 EDGs at 63 plant units

What probabilities tell about quantum systems, with application to entropy and entanglement

CERN Document Server

Myers, John M

2010-01-01

The use of parameters to describe an experimenter's control over the devices used in an experiment is familiar in quantum physics, for example in connection with Bell inequalities. Parameters are also interesting in a different but related context, as we noticed when we proved a formal separation in quantum mechanics between linear operators and the probabilities that these operators generate. In comparing an experiment against its description by a density operator and detection operators, one compares tallies of experimental outcomes against the probabilities generated by the operators but not directly against the operators. Recognizing that the accessibility of operators to experimental tests is only indirect, via probabilities, motivates us to ask what probabilities tell us about operators, or, put more precisely, “what combinations of a parameterized density operator and parameterized detection operators generate any given set of parametrized probabilities?”

The probability of false positives in zero-dimensional analyses of one-dimensional kinematic, force and EMG trajectories.

Science.gov (United States)

Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A

2016-06-14

A false positive is the mistake of inferring an effect when none exists, and although α controls the false positive (Type I error) rate in classical hypothesis testing, a given α value is accurate only if the underlying model of randomness appropriately reflects experimentally observed variance. Hypotheses pertaining to one-dimensional (1D) (e.g. time-varying) biomechanical trajectories are most often tested using a traditional zero-dimensional (0D) Gaussian model of randomness, but variance in these datasets is clearly 1D. The purpose of this study was to determine the likelihood that analyzing smooth 1D data with a 0D model of variance will produce false positives. We first used random field theory (RFT) to predict the probability of false positives in 0D analyses. We then validated RFT predictions via numerical simulations of smooth Gaussian 1D trajectories. Results showed that, across a range of public kinematic, force/moment and EMG datasets, the median false positive rate was 0.382 and not the assumed α=0.05, even for a simple two-sample t test involving N=10 trajectories per group. The median false positive rate for experiments involving three-component vector trajectories was p=0.764. This rate increased to p=0.945 for two three-component vector trajectories, and to p=0.999 for six three-component vectors. This implies that experiments involving vector trajectories have a high probability of yielding 0D statistical significance when there is, in fact, no 1D effect. Either (a) explicit a priori identification of 0D variables or (b) adoption of 1D methods can more tightly control α. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variate generation for probabilistic fracture mechanics and fitness-for-service studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, J.R.

1987-01-01

Atomic Energy of Canada Limited is conducting studies in Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics. These studies are being conducted as part of a fitness-for-service programme in support of CANDU reactors. The Monte Carlo analyses, which form part of the Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics studies, require that variates can be sampled from probability density functions. Accurate pseudo-random numbers are necessary for accurate variate generation. This report details the principles of variate generation, and describes the production and testing of pseudo-random numbers. A new algorithm has been produced for the correct performance of the lattice test for the independence of pseudo-random numbers. Two new pseudo-random number generators have been produced. These generators have excellent randomness properties and can be made fully machine-independent. Versions, in FORTRAN, for VAX and CDC computers are given. Accurate and efficient algorithms for the generation of variates from the specialized probability density functions of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics are given. 38 refs

Critique of `Elements of Quantum Probability'

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gill, R.D.

1998-01-01

We analyse the thesis of Kummerer and Maassen that classical probability is unable to model the the stochastic nature of the Aspect experiment in which violation of Bells inequality was experimentally demonstrated According to these authors the experiment shows the need to introduce the extension

Time dependent and asymptotic neutron number probability distribution calculation using discrete Fourier transform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Humbert, Ph.

2005-01-01

In this paper we consider the probability distribution of neutrons in a multiplying assembly. The problem is studied using a space independent one group neutron point reactor model without delayed neutrons. We recall the generating function methodology and analytical results obtained by G.I. Bell when the c 2 approximation is used and we present numerical solutions in the general case, without this approximation. The neutron source induced distribution is calculated using the single initial neutron distribution which satisfies a master (Kolmogorov backward) equation. This equation is solved using the generating function method. The generating function satisfies a differential equation and the probability distribution is derived by inversion of the generating function. Numerical results are obtained using the same methodology where the generating function is the Fourier transform of the probability distribution. Discrete Fourier transforms are used to calculate the discrete time dependent distributions and continuous Fourier transforms are used to calculate the asymptotic continuous probability distributions. Numerical applications are presented to illustrate the method. (author)

Probability theory a foundational course

CERN Document Server

Pakshirajan, R P

2013-01-01

This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

How sex- and age-disaggregated data and gender and generational analyses can improve humanitarian response.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazurana, Dyan; Benelli, Prisca; Walker, Peter

2013-07-01

Humanitarian aid remains largely driven by anecdote rather than by evidence. The contemporary humanitarian system has significant weaknesses with regard to data collection, analysis, and action at all stages of response to crises involving armed conflict or natural disaster. This paper argues that humanitarian actors can best determine and respond to vulnerabilities and needs if they use sex- and age-disaggregated data (SADD) and gender and generational analyses to help shape their assessments of crises-affected populations. Through case studies, the paper shows how gaps in information on sex and age limit the effectiveness of humanitarian response in all phases of a crisis. The case studies serve to show how proper collection, use, and analysis of SADD enable operational agencies to deliver assistance more effectively and efficiently. The evidence suggests that the employment of SADD and gender and generational analyses assists in saving lives and livelihoods in a crisis. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

Application of probability generating function to the essentials of nondestructive nuclear materials assay system using neutron correlation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosoma, Takashi

2017-01-01

In the previous research (JAEA-Research 2015-009), essentials of neutron multiplicity counting mathematics were reconsidered where experiences obtained at the Plutonium Conversion Development Facility were taken into, and formulae of multiplicity distribution were algebraically derived up to septuplet using a probability generating function to make a strategic move in the future. Its principle was reported by K. Böhnel in 1985, but such a high-order expansion was the first case due to its increasing complexity. In this research, characteristics of the high-order correlation were investigated. It was found that higher-order correlation increases rapidly in response to the increase of leakage multiplication, crosses and leaves lower-order correlations behind, when leakage multiplication is > 1.3 that depends on detector efficiency and counter setting. In addition, fission rates and doubles count rates by fast neutron and by thermal neutron in their coexisting system were algebraically derived using a probability generating function again. Its principle was reported by I. Pázsit and L. Pál in 2012, but such a physical interpretation, i.e. associating their stochastic variables with fission rate, doubles count rate and leakage multiplication, is the first case. From Rossi-alpha combined distribution and measured ratio of each area obtained by Differential Die-Away Self-Interrogation (DDSI) and conventional assay data, it is possible to estimate: the number of induced fissions per unit time by fast neutron and by thermal neutron; the number of induced fissions (< 1) by one source neutron; and individual doubles count rates. During the research, a hypothesis introduced in their report was proved to be true. Provisional calculations were done for UO_2 of 1∼10 kgU containing ∼ 0.009 wt% "2"4"4Cm. (author)

Radiation risk of tissue late effects, a net consequence of probabilities of various cellular responses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feinendegen, L.E.

1991-01-01

Late effects from the exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation are hardly or not at all observed in man mainly due to the low values of risk coefficients that preclude statistical analyses of data from populations that are exposed to doses less than 0.2 Gy. In order to arrive at an assessment of potential risk from radiation exposure in the low dose range, the microdosimetry approach is essential. In the low dose range, ionizing radiation generates particle tracks, mainly electrons, which are distributed rather heterogeneously within the exposed tissue. Taking the individual cell as the elemental unit of life, observations and calculations of cellular responses to being hit by energy depositions events from low LET type are analysed. It emerges that besides the probability of a hit cell to sustain a detrimental effect with the consequense of malignant transformation there are probabilities of various adaptive responses that equipp the hit cell with a benefit. On the one hand, an improvement of cellular radical detoxification was observed in mouse bone marrow cells; another adaptive response pertaining to improved DNA repair, was reported for human lymphocytes. The improved radical detoxification in mouse bone marrow cells lasts for a period of 5-10 hours and improved DNA repair in human lymphocytes was seen for some 60 hours following acute irradiation. It is speculated that improved radical detoxification and improved DNA repair may reduce the probability of spontaneous carcinogenesis. Thus it is proposed to weigh the probability of detriment for a hit cell within a multicellular system against the probability of benefit through adaptive responses in other hit cells in the same system per radiation exposure. In doing this, the net effect of low doses of low LET radiation in tissue with individual cells being hit by energy deposition events could be zero or even beneficial. (orig./MG)

Finite-size scaling of survival probability in branching processes

OpenAIRE

Garcia-Millan, Rosalba; Font-Clos, Francesc; Corral, Alvaro

2014-01-01

Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We reveal the finite-size scaling law of the survival probability for a given branching process ruled by a probability distribution of the number of offspring per element whose standard deviation is finite, obtaining the exact scaling function as well as the critical exponents. Our findings prove the universal behavi...

Estimating Probability of Default on Peer to Peer Market – Survival Analysis Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đurović Andrija

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Arguably a cornerstone of credit risk modelling is the probability of default. This article aims is to search for the evidence of relationship between loan characteristics and probability of default on peer-to-peer (P2P market. In line with that, two loan characteristics are analysed: 1 loan term length and 2 loan purpose. The analysis is conducted using survival analysis approach within the vintage framework. Firstly, 12 months probability of default through the cycle is used to compare riskiness of analysed loan characteristics. Secondly, log-rank test is employed in order to compare complete survival period of cohorts. Findings of the paper suggest that there is clear evidence of relationship between analysed loan characteristics and probability of default. Longer term loans are more risky than the shorter term ones and the least risky loans are those used for credit card payoff.

Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

2004-01-01

We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

Seismic fragility analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kostov, Marin

2000-01-01

In the last two decades there is increasing number of probabilistic seismic risk assessments performed. The basic ideas of the procedure for performing a Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of critical structures (NUREG/CR-2300, 1983) could be used also for normal industrial and residential buildings, dams or other structures. The general formulation of the risk assessment procedure applied in this investigation is presented in Franzini, et al., 1984. The probability of failure of a structure for an expected lifetime (for example 50 years) can be obtained from the annual frequency of failure, β E determined by the relation: β E ∫[d[β(x)]/dx]P(flx)dx. β(x) is the annual frequency of exceedance of load level x (for example, the variable x may be peak ground acceleration), P(fI x) is the conditional probability of structure failure at a given seismic load level x. The problem leads to the assessment of the seismic hazard β(x) and the fragility P(fl x). The seismic hazard curves are obtained by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The fragility curves are obtained after the response of the structure is defined as probabilistic and its capacity and the associated uncertainties are assessed. Finally the fragility curves are combined with the seismic loading to estimate the frequency of failure for each critical scenario. The frequency of failure due to seismic event is presented by the scenario with the highest frequency. The tools usually applied for probabilistic safety analyses of critical structures could relatively easily be adopted to ordinary structures. The key problems are the seismic hazard definitions and the fragility analyses. The fragility could be derived either based on scaling procedures or on the base of generation. Both approaches have been presented in the paper. After the seismic risk (in terms of failure probability) is assessed there are several approaches for risk reduction. Generally the methods could be classified in two groups. The

Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

Analyse on changes of runoff generation and confluence of the Luohe River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yiming Si; Xiaowei Liu

2004-01-01

The change trend of water cycle factors such as rainfall, runoff and flood events etc. in the Luohe River basin are analysed based on hydrological data since 1950s. The analysis shows that rainfall has been decreasing, but not much, while runoff has been decreasing remarkably. Under the same rainfall conditions, runoff and peak discharge have dropped considerably, runoff coefficient has become much smaller, and the frequency of flood occurrence has been decreasing. It is considered that environmental variation caused by human activities accounts for the change, in characteristics of runoff generation and confluence in the basin.(Author)

Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

OpenAIRE

Saad, Emad

2013-01-01

Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slunga, R.

1979-03-01

A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

ANALYSING SOLAR-WIND HYBRID POWER GENERATING SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustafa ENGİN

2005-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a solar-wind hybrid power generating, system that will be used for security lighting was designed. Hybrid system was installed and solar cells, wind turbine, battery bank, charge regulators and inverter performance values were measured through the whole year. Using measured values of overall system efficiency, reliability, demanded energy cost per kWh were calculated, and percentage of generated energy according to resources were defined. We also include in the paper a discussion of new strategies to improve hybrid power generating system performance and demanded energy cost per kWh.

Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

Science.gov (United States)

Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

2015-05-01

This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

Science.gov (United States)

Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

2015-01-01

Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karel Doubravsky

Full Text Available Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (rechecked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

Task 4.1: Development of a framework for creating a databank to generate probability density functions for process parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgazzi, Luciano

2011-01-01

PSA analysis should be based on the best available data for the types of equipment and systems in the plant. In some cases very limited data may be available for evolutionary designs or new equipments, especially in the case of passive systems. It has been recognized that difficulties arise in addressing the uncertainties related to the physical phenomena and characterizing the parameters relevant to the passive system performance evaluation, since the unavailability of a consistent operational and experimental data base. This lack of experimental evidence and validated data forces the analyst to resort to expert/engineering judgment to a large extent, thus making the results strongly dependent upon the expert elicitation process. This prompts the need for the development of a framework for constructing a database to generate probability distributions for the parameters influencing the system behaviour. The objective of the task is to develop a consistent framework aimed at creating probability distributions for the parameters relevant to the passive system performance evaluation. In order to achieve this goal considerable experience and engineering judgement are also required to determine which existing data are most applicable to the new systems or which generic data bases or models provide the best information for the system design. Eventually in case of absence of documented specific reliability data, documented expert judgement coming out from a well structured procedure could be used to envisage sound probability distributions for the parameters under interest

Decision-making in probability and statistics Chilean curriculum

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elicer, Raimundo

2018-01-01

Probability and statistics have become prominent subjects in school mathematics curricula. As an exemplary case, I investigate the role of decision making in the justification for probability and statistics in the current Chilean upper secondary mathematics curriculum. For addressing this concern......, I draw upon Fairclough’s model for Critical Discourse Analysis to analyse selected texts as examples of discourse practices. The texts are interconnected with politically driven ideas of stochastics “for all”, the notion of statistical literacy coined by statisticians’ communities, schooling...

Making Heads or Tails of Probability: An Experiment with Random Generators

Science.gov (United States)

Morsanyi, Kinga; Handley, Simon J.; Serpell, Sylvie

2013-01-01

Background: The equiprobability bias is a tendency for individuals to think of probabilistic events as "equiprobable" by nature, and to judge outcomes that occur with different probabilities as equally likely. The equiprobability bias has been repeatedly found to be related to formal education in statistics, and it is claimed to be based…

Life cycle analyses applied to first generation bio-fuels consumed in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

This rather voluminous publication reports detailed life cycle analyses for the different present bio-fuels channels also named first-generation bio-fuels: bio-ethanol, bio-diesel, pure vegetal oils, and oil. After a recall of the general principles adopted for this life-cycle analysis, it reports the modelling of the different channels (agricultural steps, bio-fuel production steps, Ethyl tert-butyl ether or ETBE steps, vehicles, animal fats and used vegetal oils, soil assignment change). It gives synthetic descriptions of the different production ways (methyl ester from different plants, ethanol from different plants). It reports and compares the results obtained in terms of performance

Probability and Statistics The Science of Uncertainty (Revised Edition)

CERN Document Server

Tabak, John

2011-01-01

Probability and Statistics, Revised Edition deals with the history of probability, describing the modern concept of randomness and examining "pre-probabilistic" ideas of what most people today would characterize as randomness. This revised book documents some historically important early uses of probability to illustrate some very important probabilistic questions. It goes on to explore statistics and the generations of mathematicians and non-mathematicians who began to address problems in statistical analysis, including the statistical structure of data sets as well as the theory of

Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2013-01-01

Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

Comparison based on energy and exergy analyses of the potential cogeneration efficiencies for fuel cells and other electricity generation devices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosen, M A [Ryerson Polytechnical Inst., Toronto, (CA). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

1990-01-01

Comparisons of the potential cogeneration efficiencies are made, based on energy and exergy analyses, for several devices for electricity generation. The investigation considers several types of fuel cell system (Phosphoric Acid, Alkaline, Solid Polymer Electrolyte, Molten Carbonate and Solid Oxide), and several fossil-fuel and nuclear cogeneration systems based on steam power plants. In the analysis, each system is modelled as a device for which fuel and air enter, and electrical- and thermal-energy products and material and thermal-energy wastes exit. The results for all systems considered indicate that exergy analyses should be used when analysing the cogeneration potential of systems for electricity generation, because they weigh the usefulnesses of heat and electricity on equivalent bases. Energy analyses tend to present overly optimistic views of performance. These findings are particularly significant when large fractions of the heat output from a system are utilized for cogeneration. (author).

Sequential Probability Ration Tests : Conservative and Robust

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Shi, Wen

2017-01-01

In practice, most computers generate simulation outputs sequentially, so it is attractive to analyze these outputs through sequential statistical methods such as sequential probability ratio tests (SPRTs). We investigate several SPRTs for choosing between two hypothesized values for the mean output

A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann

2017-04-01

The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for

Characteristic length of the knotting probability revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

2015-01-01

We present a self-avoiding polygon (SAP) model for circular DNA in which the radius of impermeable cylindrical segments corresponds to the screening length of double-stranded DNA surrounded by counter ions. For the model we evaluate the probability for a generated SAP with N segments having a given knot K through simulation. We call it the knotting probability of a knot K with N segments for the SAP model. We show that when N is large the most significant factor in the knotting probability is given by the exponentially decaying part exp(−N/N K ), where the estimates of parameter N K are consistent with the same value for all the different knots we investigated. We thus call it the characteristic length of the knotting probability. We give formulae expressing the characteristic length as a function of the cylindrical radius r ex , i.e. the screening length of double-stranded DNA. (paper)

Power generation in India: analysing trends and outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

The objective of this report is to provide up-to-date data, critical analysis and information encompassing all aspects of power generation in India. The report provides historic and future outlook for power generation in India. It also provides an evaluation of private participation in power generation segment of India and investment opportunities in Indian power sector. In addition, the report examines policies, regulatory framework and financing of power generation in India. It also highlights key issues and challenges that are restricting the accelerated development of this sector. The report has thirteen chapters in total. (author)

Using probability of drug use as independent variable in a register-based pharmacoepidemiological cause-effect study-An application of the reverse waiting time distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hallas, Jesper; Pottegård, Anton; Støvring, Henrik

2017-01-01

generated adjusted ORs in the upper range (4.37-4.75) while at the same time having the most narrow confidence intervals (ratio between upper and lower confidence limit, 1.46-1.50). Some ORs generated by conventional measures were higher than the probabilistic ORs, but only when the assumed period of intake......BACKGROUND: In register-based pharmacoepidemiological studies, each day of follow-up is usually categorized either as exposed or unexposed. However, there is an underlying continuous probability of exposure, and by insisting on a dichotomy, researchers unwillingly force a nondifferential...... misclassification into their analyses. We have recently developed a model whereby probability of exposure can be modeled, and we tested this on an empirical case of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID)-induced upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). METHODS: We used a case-controls data set, consisting...

Probability of misclassifying biological elements in surface waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Loga, Małgorzata; Wierzchołowska-Dziedzic, Anna

2017-11-24

Measurement uncertainties are inherent to assessment of biological indices of water bodies. The effect of these uncertainties on the probability of misclassification of ecological status is the subject of this paper. Four Monte-Carlo (M-C) models were applied to simulate the occurrence of random errors in the measurements of metrics corresponding to four biological elements of surface waters: macrophytes, phytoplankton, phytobenthos, and benthic macroinvertebrates. Long series of error-prone measurement values of these metrics, generated by M-C models, were used to identify cases in which values of any of the four biological indices lay outside of the "true" water body class, i.e., outside the class assigned from the actual physical measurements. Fraction of such cases in the M-C generated series was used to estimate the probability of misclassification. The method is particularly useful for estimating the probability of misclassification of the ecological status of surface water bodies in the case of short sequences of measurements of biological indices. The results of the Monte-Carlo simulations show a relatively high sensitivity of this probability to measurement errors of the river macrophyte index (MIR) and high robustness to measurement errors of the benthic macroinvertebrate index (MMI). The proposed method of using Monte-Carlo models to estimate the probability of misclassification has significant potential for assessing the uncertainty of water body status reported to the EC by the EU member countries according to WFD. The method can be readily applied also in risk assessment of water management decisions before adopting the status dependent corrective actions.

Measurement of electromagnetic fields generated by air traffic control radar systems with spectrum analysers.

Science.gov (United States)

Barellini, A; Bogi, L; Licitra, G; Silvi, A M; Zari, A

2009-12-01

Air traffic control (ATC) primary radars are 'classical' radars that use echoes of radiofrequency (RF) pulses from aircraft to determine their position. High-power RF pulses radiated from radar antennas may produce high electromagnetic field levels in the surrounding area. Measurement of electromagnetic fields produced by RF-pulsed radar by means of a swept-tuned spectrum analyser are investigated here. Measurements have been carried out both in the laboratory and in situ on signals generated by an ATC primary radar.

Measurement of electromagnetic fields generated by air traffic control radar systems with spectrum analysers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barellini, A.; Bogi, L.; Licitra, G.; Silvi, A. M.; Zari, A.

2009-01-01

Air traffic control (ATC) primary radars are 'classical' radars that use echoes of radiofrequency (RF) pulses from aircraft to determine their position. High-power RF pulses radiated from radar antennas may produce high electromagnetic field levels in the surrounding area. Measurement of electromagnetic fields produced by RF-pulsed radar by means of a swept-tuned spectrum analyser are investigated here. Measurements have been carried out both in the laboratory and in situ on signals generated by an ATC primary radar. (authors)

Analyses of pebble-bed reactors for the generation of heat for heating purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muehlensiep, J.; Fricke, U.; Inhester, K.H.; Kugeler, K.; Phlippen, P.W.; Schmidtlein, P.; Swatoch, R.; Wagner, U.

1986-10-01

Marginal conditions are described for the use of a nuclear power reactor for long-distance heat supply in densely populated areas. For the design of the high-temperature heat generating reactor, plant components and possible arrangements are analyzed with consideration to safety and costs. System sizes are reasonably chosen on the basis of analyzed parameters, the paramount design goal being to adequately retain the fission products in the coated particles of the fuel elements, in anticipation of probable accidents. With the help of the data record obtained, a system is designed with a cuboid-shaped core as its characteristic feature; the advantage of the core consists in the fact that it quickly discharges the after-heat outwards even in case of a hypothetical accident. Due to the core shape, it is possible to install heat-exchanging components near the core, and to place the safety rods where they can be very effective in reflector borings. (orig./HP) [de

Learning Binomial Probability Concepts with Simulation, Random Numbers and a Spreadsheet

Science.gov (United States)

Rochowicz, John A., Jr.

2005-01-01

This paper introduces the reader to the concepts of binomial probability and simulation. A spreadsheet is used to illustrate these concepts. Random number generators are great technological tools for demonstrating the concepts of probability. Ideas of approximation, estimation, and mathematical usefulness provide numerous ways of learning…

Probability and containment of turbine missiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, G.C.K.

1976-01-01

With the trend toward ever larger power generating plants with large high-speed turbines, an important plant design consideration is the potential for and consequences of mechanical failure of turbine rotors. Such rotor failure could result in high-velocity disc fragments (turbine missiles) perforating the turbine casing and jeopardizing vital plant systems. The designer must first estimate the probability of any turbine missile damaging any safety-related plant component for his turbine and his plant arrangement. If the probability is not low enough to be acceptable to the regulatory agency, he must design a shield to contain the postulated turbine missiles. Alternatively, the shield could be designed to retard (to reduce the velocity of) the missiles such that they would not damage any vital plant system. In this paper, some of the presently available references that can be used to evaluate the probability, containment and retardation of turbine missiles are reviewed; various alternative methods are compared; and subjects for future research are recommended. (Auth.)

Probability

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, A N

1996-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

The influence of initial beliefs on judgments of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Erica C; Lagnado, David A

2012-01-01

This study aims to investigate whether experimentally induced prior beliefs affect processing of evidence including the updating of beliefs under uncertainty about the unknown probabilities of outcomes and the structural, outcome-generating nature of the environment. Participants played a gambling task in the form of computer-simulated slot machines and were given information about the slot machines' possible outcomes without their associated probabilities. One group was induced with a prior belief about the outcome space that matched the space of actual outcomes to be sampled; the other group was induced with a skewed prior belief that included the actual outcomes and also fictional higher outcomes. In reality, however, all participants sampled evidence from the same underlying outcome distribution, regardless of priors given. Before and during sampling, participants expressed their beliefs about the outcome distribution (values and probabilities). Evaluation of those subjective probability distributions suggests that all participants' judgments converged toward the observed outcome distribution. However, despite observing no supporting evidence for fictional outcomes, a significant proportion of participants in the skewed priors condition expected them in the future. A probe of the participants' understanding of the underlying outcome-generating processes indicated that participants' judgments were based on the information given in the induced priors and consequently, a significant proportion of participants in the skewed condition believed the slot machines were not games of chance while participants in the control condition believed the machines generated outcomes at random. Beyond Bayesian or heuristic belief updating, priors not only contribute to belief revision but also affect one's deeper understanding of the environment.

Impaired mismatch negativity (MMN) generation in schizophrenia as a function of stimulus deviance, probability, and interstimulus/interdeviant interval.

Science.gov (United States)

Javitt, D C; Grochowski, S; Shelley, A M; Ritter, W

1998-03-01

Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder associated with disturbances in perception and cognition. Event-related potentials (ERP) provide a mechanism for evaluating potential mechanisms underlying neurophysiological dysfunction in schizophrenia. Mismatch negativity (MMN) is a short-duration auditory cognitive ERP component that indexes operation of the auditory sensory ('echoic') memory system. Prior studies have demonstrated impaired MMN generation in schizophrenia along with deficits in auditory sensory memory performance. MMN is elicited in an auditory oddball paradigm in which a sequence of repetitive standard tones is interrupted infrequently by a physically deviant ('oddball') stimulus. The present study evaluates MMN generation as a function of deviant stimulus probability, interstimulus interval, interdeviant interval and the degree of pitch separation between the standard and deviant stimuli. The major findings of the present study are first, that MMN amplitude is decreased in schizophrenia across a broad range of stimulus conditions, and second, that the degree of deficit in schizophrenia is largest under conditions when MMN is normally largest. The pattern of deficit observed in schizophrenia differs from the pattern observed in other conditions associated with MMN dysfunction, including Alzheimer's disease, stroke, and alcohol intoxication.

Two-slit experiment: quantum and classical probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikov, Andrei

2015-01-01

Inter-relation between quantum and classical probability models is one of the most fundamental problems of quantum foundations. Nowadays this problem also plays an important role in quantum technologies, in quantum cryptography and the theory of quantum random generators. In this letter, we compare the viewpoint of Richard Feynman that the behavior of quantum particles cannot be described by classical probability theory with the viewpoint that quantum–classical inter-relation is more complicated (cf, in particular, with the tomographic model of quantum mechanics developed in detail by Vladimir Man'ko). As a basic example, we consider the two-slit experiment, which played a crucial role in quantum foundational debates at the beginning of quantum mechanics (QM). In particular, its analysis led Niels Bohr to the formulation of the principle of complementarity. First, we demonstrate that in complete accordance with Feynman's viewpoint, the probabilities for the two-slit experiment have the non-Kolmogorovian structure, since they violate one of basic laws of classical probability theory, the law of total probability (the heart of the Bayesian analysis). However, then we show that these probabilities can be embedded in a natural way into the classical (Kolmogorov, 1933) probability model. To do this, one has to take into account the randomness of selection of different experimental contexts, the joint consideration of which led Feynman to a conclusion about the non-classicality of quantum probability. We compare this embedding of non-Kolmogorovian quantum probabilities into the Kolmogorov model with well-known embeddings of non-Euclidean geometries into Euclidean space (e.g., the Poincaré disk model for the Lobachvesky plane). (paper)

Clear-Sky Probability for the August 21, 2017, Total Solar Eclipse Using the NREL National Solar Radiation Database

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Habte, Aron M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Roberts, Billy J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kutchenreiter, Mark C [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sengupta, Manajit [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wilcox, Steve [Solar Resource Solutions, LLC, Lakewood, CO (United States); Stoffel, Tom [Solar Resource Solutions, LLC, Lakewood, CO (United States)

2017-07-21

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and collaborators have created a clear-sky probability analysis to help guide viewers of the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse, the first continent-spanning eclipse in nearly 100 years in the United States. Using cloud and solar data from NREL's National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the analysis provides cloudless sky probabilities specific to the date and time of the eclipse. Although this paper is not intended to be an eclipse weather forecast, the detailed maps can help guide eclipse enthusiasts to likely optimal viewing locations. Additionally, high-resolution data are presented for the centerline of the path of totality, representing the likelihood for cloudless skies and atmospheric clarity. The NSRDB provides industry, academia, and other stakeholders with high-resolution solar irradiance data to support feasibility analyses for photovoltaic and concentrating solar power generation projects.

Analysing The Thermalhydraulic Parameters Of VVER-1000 Reactor For The Accident Of Steam Generator Tube Rupture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luu Nam Hai; Truong Cong Thang

2011-01-01

To ensure the safety operation of nuclear power plant (NPP), a lot of postulated accident scenarios were considered and analysed. This research chose and analysed the accident of steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) under the actual plant conditions by using the simulation program PCTRAN. The SGTR accident is happen when the NPP is under operation with the steady state condition (power of 3000 MWth, primary pressure of 157 bar and secondary pressure of 63 bar). The accident is initiated by creating a break with equivalent diameter of 100 mm in the area of lower row heat exchanging tubes. The result of analysis is compared with the calculation of the Shariz University, Iran using the thermal hydraulics code RELAP5/mod3.2 and the report in the PSAR data of VVER-1000. This comparison shows that it is possible for using PCTRAN to analyse accidents of VVER-1000 reactor. (author)

Using next-generation sequencing to analyse the diet of a highly endangered land snail (Powelliphanta augusta feeding on endemic earthworms.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stéphane Boyer

Full Text Available Predation is often difficult to observe or quantify for species that are rare, very small, aquatic or nocturnal. The assessment of such species' diet can be conducted using molecular methods that target prey DNA remaining in predators' guts and faeces. These techniques do not require high taxonomic expertise, are applicable to soft-bodied prey and allow for identification at the species level. However, for generalist predators, the presence of mixed prey DNA in guts and faeces can be a major impediment as it requires development of specific primers for each potential prey species for standard (Sanger sequencing. Therefore, next generation sequencing methods have recently been applied to such situations. In this study, we used 454-pyrosequencing to analyse the diet of Powelliphantaaugusta, a carnivorous landsnail endemic to New Zealand and critically endangered after most of its natural habitat has been lost to opencast mining. This species was suspected to feed mainly on earthworms. Although earthworm tissue was not detectable in snail faeces, earthworm DNA was still present in sufficient quantity to conduct molecular analyses. Based on faecal samples collected from 46 landsnails, our analysis provided a complete map of the earthworm-based diet of P. augusta. Predated species appear to be earthworms that live in the leaf litter or earthworms that come to the soil surface at night to feed on the leaf litter. This indicates that P. augusta may not be selective and probably predates any earthworm encountered in the leaf litter. These findings are crucial for selecting future translocation areas for this highly endangered species. The molecular diet analysis protocol used here is particularly appropriate to study the diet of generalist predators that feed on liquid or soft-bodied prey. Because it is non-harmful and non-disturbing for the studied animals, it is also applicable to any species of conservation interest.

Using Next-Generation Sequencing to Analyse the Diet of a Highly Endangered Land Snail (Powelliphanta augusta) Feeding on Endemic Earthworms

Science.gov (United States)

Boyer, Stéphane; Wratten, Stephen D.; Holyoake, Andrew; Abdelkrim, Jawad; Cruickshank, Robert H.

2013-01-01

Predation is often difficult to observe or quantify for species that are rare, very small, aquatic or nocturnal. The assessment of such species’ diet can be conducted using molecular methods that target prey DNA remaining in predators’ guts and faeces. These techniques do not require high taxonomic expertise, are applicable to soft-bodied prey and allow for identification at the species level. However, for generalist predators, the presence of mixed prey DNA in guts and faeces can be a major impediment as it requires development of specific primers for each potential prey species for standard (Sanger) sequencing. Therefore, next generation sequencing methods have recently been applied to such situations. In this study, we used 454-pyrosequencing to analyse the diet of Powelliphantaaugusta , a carnivorous landsnail endemic to New Zealand and critically endangered after most of its natural habitat has been lost to opencast mining. This species was suspected to feed mainly on earthworms. Although earthworm tissue was not detectable in snail faeces, earthworm DNA was still present in sufficient quantity to conduct molecular analyses. Based on faecal samples collected from 46 landsnails, our analysis provided a complete map of the earthworm-based diet of P . augusta . Predated species appear to be earthworms that live in the leaf litter or earthworms that come to the soil surface at night to feed on the leaf litter. This indicates that P . augusta may not be selective and probably predates any earthworm encountered in the leaf litter. These findings are crucial for selecting future translocation areas for this highly endangered species. The molecular diet analysis protocol used here is particularly appropriate to study the diet of generalist predators that feed on liquid or soft-bodied prey. Because it is non-harmful and non-disturbing for the studied animals, it is also applicable to any species of conservation interest. PMID:24086671

Tuned by experience: How orientation probability modulates early perceptual processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Jabar, Syaheed B; Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt

2017-09-01

Probable stimuli are more often and more quickly detected. While stimulus probability is known to affect decision-making, it can also be explained as a perceptual phenomenon. Using spatial gratings, we have previously shown that probable orientations are also more precisely estimated, even while participants remained naive to the manipulation. We conducted an electrophysiological study to investigate the effect that probability has on perception and visual-evoked potentials. In line with previous studies on oddballs and stimulus prevalence, low-probability orientations were associated with a greater late positive 'P300' component which might be related to either surprise or decision-making. However, the early 'C1' component, thought to reflect V1 processing, was dampened for high-probability orientations while later P1 and N1 components were unaffected. Exploratory analyses revealed a participant-level correlation between C1 and P300 amplitudes, suggesting a link between perceptual processing and decision-making. We discuss how these probability effects could be indicative of sharpening of neurons preferring the probable orientations, due either to perceptual learning, or to feature-based attention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discussion on the applicability of entropy generation minimization to the analyses and optimizations of thermodynamic processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, XueTao; Liang, XinGang

2013-01-01

Highlights: • The applicability of entropy generation minimization is conditional. • The concept of exergy-work conversion efficiency is defined. • The concept of exergy destruction number is introduced. • Smaller exergy destruction number leads to larger exergy-work conversion efficiency. - Abstract: This work reports the analyses of some thermodynamic systems with the concepts of entropy generation, entropy generation numbers and revised entropy generation number, as well as exergy destruction number and exergy-work conversion efficiency that are proposed in this paper. The applicability of entropy generation minimization (EGM) is conditional if the optimization objective is the output power. The EGM leads to the maximum output power when the net exergy flow rate into the system is fixed, but it may not be appropriate if the net exergy flow rate into the system is not fixed. On the other hand, smaller exergy destruction number always corresponds to larger exergy-work conversion efficiency. The refrigeration cycle with the reverse Carnot engine is also analyzed in which mechanical work is input. The result shows that the EGM leads to the largest COP if the temperature of the high temperature heat source is fixed

Scaling Qualitative Probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2017-01-01

There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

Risk estimation using probability machines

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Digital dice computational solutions to practical probability problems

CERN Document Server

Nahin, Paul J

2013-01-01

Some probability problems are so difficult that they stump the smartest mathematicians. But even the hardest of these problems can often be solved with a computer and a Monte Carlo simulation, in which a random-number generator simulates a physical process, such as a million rolls of a pair of dice. This is what Digital Dice is all about: how to get numerical answers to difficult probability problems without having to solve complicated mathematical equations. Popular-math writer Paul Nahin challenges readers to solve twenty-one difficult but fun problems, from determining the

Joint probabilities reproducing three EPR experiments on two qubits

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roy, S. M.; Atkinson, D.; Auberson, G.; Mahoux, G.; Singh, V.

2007-01-01

An eight-parameter family of the most general non-negative quadruple probabilities is constructed for EPR-Bohm-Aharonov experiments when only three pairs of analyser settings are used. It is a simultaneous representation of three different Bohr-incompatible experimental configurations involving

The probability of traffic accidents associated with the transport of radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James, I.A.

1986-01-01

This report evaluates the probability of a container impact during transit between generating and disposal sites. Probabilities per route mile are combined with the characteristics of the transport systems described in previous reports, to allow a comparison of different disposal options to be made. (author)

Needs for Flexibility in Energy Systems Caused by the Increasing Share of Variable Renewable Energy Generation in 2020, 2030 and 2050 Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Maule, Petr

scenarios are the baseline scenarios from3. Variable renewable energy generation is analysed using the CorWind tool developed at DTU Wind Energya. In addition to analysing VRE generation, the variability of net load (electricity consumption subtracted by VRE generation) is analysed. Compared to 2014...... consumption). However, there is always some probability that the aggregate VRE generation is zero, so the highest possible net load is determined by peak consumption. This may raise questions considering the incentives to hold enough other generation capacity to meet the rare peak net load. Compared...... to the hourly ramp rates in consumption, the increasing VRE generation increases the ramp rates in the aggregate net load only moderately in the future scenarios; STD of the net load ramp rate in 2050 is expected to be 14% higher than in 2014. However, while ramp rates in consumption happen usually at well...

Probability matching and strategy availability.

Science.gov (United States)

Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta

2010-09-01

Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.

Evaluating probability measures related to subsurface flow and transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cawlfield, J.D.

1991-01-01

Probabilistic modeling approaches are being used increasingly in order to carry out quantified risk analysis and to evaluate the uncertainty existing in subsurface flow and transport analyses. The work presented in this paper addresses three issues: comparison of common probabilistic modeling techniques, recent results regarding the sensitivity of probability measures to likely changes in the uncertain variables for transport in porous media, and a discussion of some questions regarding fundamental modeling philosophy within a probabilistic framework. Recent results indicate that uncertainty regarding average flow velocity controls the probabilistic outcome, while uncertainty in the dispersivity and diffusion coefficient does not seem very important. Uncertainty of reaction terms is important only at early times in the transport process. Questions are posed regarding (1) the inclusion of macrodispersion in a probabilistic analysis, (2) statistics of flow velocity and (3) the notion of an ultimate probability measure for subsurface flow analyses

Reliability of the emergency diesel generator

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verstegen, C.; Kotthoff, K. [Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit - GRS mbH, Schwertnergasse 1, D-5000 Koeln 1, Cologne (Germany)

1986-02-15

The paper deals with a statistical investigation on the availability of diesel generators, which has been performed recently The investigation is based on the operating experiences of a total of 40-diesel generators in 10 German NPP's. Both unavailability of the diesel generators due to failures and due to maintenance and repair have been considered.The probability of diesel failure during start and short-time operation amounts?o about 8 x 10{sup -3}/demand. The probability of common mode failures is approximately one order of magnitude smaller. The influence of various parameters on the failure probability has been discussed. A statistically significant dependence could not be identified In addition the investigation shows that the unavailability of the diesel generators due to maintenance and repair is about of the same order magnitude as the probability of diesel failures. (authors)

Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassinelli, G.

1979-01-01

The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

Dynamic analyses, FPGA implementation and engineering applications of multi-butterfly chaotic attractors generated from generalised Sprott C system

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Qiang; Zhao, Xiao-Wen; Rajagopal, Karthikeyan; Xu, Guanghui; Akgul, Akif; Guleryuz, Emre

2018-01-01

This paper considers the generation of multi-butterfly chaotic attractors from a generalised Sprott C system with multiple non-hyperbolic equilibria. The system is constructed by introducing an additional variable whose derivative has a switching function to the Sprott C system. It is numerically found that the system creates two-, three-, four-, five-butterfly attractors and any other multi-butterfly attractors. First, the dynamic analyses of multi-butterfly chaotic attractors are presented. Secondly, the field programmable gate array implementation, electronic circuit realisation and random number generator are done with the multi-butterfly chaotic attractors.

Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuzio, S.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this analysis is to develop a probability distribution for flowing interval spacing. A flowing interval is defined as a fractured zone that transmits flow in the Saturated Zone (SZ), as identified through borehole flow meter surveys (Figure 1). This analysis uses the term ''flowing interval spacing'' as opposed to fractured spacing, which is typically used in the literature. The term fracture spacing was not used in this analysis because the data used identify a zone (or a flowing interval) that contains fluid-conducting fractures but does not distinguish how many or which fractures comprise the flowing interval. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. Fracture spacing within the SZ is defined as the spacing between fractures, with no regard to which fractures are carrying flow. The Development Plan associated with this analysis is entitled, ''Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing'', (CRWMS M and O 2000a). The parameter from this analysis may be used in the TSPA SR/LA Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Work Direction and Planning Documents: (1) ''Abstraction of Matrix Diffusion for SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'' (CRWMS M and O 1999a) and (2) ''Incorporation of Heterogeneity in SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'', (CRWMS M and O 1999b). A limitation of this analysis is that the probability distribution of flowing interval spacing may underestimate the effect of incorporating matrix diffusion processes in the SZ transport model because of the possible overestimation of the flowing interval spacing. Larger flowing interval spacing results in a decrease in the matrix diffusion processes. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be determined from the data. Because each flowing interval probably has more than one fracture contributing to a flowing interval, the true flowing interval spacing could be

Statistics and probability with applications for engineers and scientists

CERN Document Server

Gupta, Bhisham C

2013-01-01

Introducing the tools of statistics and probability from the ground up An understanding of statistical tools is essential for engineers and scientists who often need to deal with data analysis over the course of their work. Statistics and Probability with Applications for Engineers and Scientists walks readers through a wide range of popular statistical techniques, explaining step-by-step how to generate, analyze, and interpret data for diverse applications in engineering and the natural sciences. Unique among books of this kind, Statistics and Prob

Finite-size scaling of survival probability in branching processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Millan, Rosalba; Font-Clos, Francesc; Corral, Álvaro

2015-04-01

Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We derive analytically the existence of finite-size scaling for the survival probability as a function of the control parameter and the maximum number of generations, obtaining the critical exponents as well as the exact scaling function, which is G(y)=2ye(y)/(e(y)-1), with y the rescaled distance to the critical point. Our findings are valid for any branching process of the Galton-Watson type, independently of the distribution of the number of offspring, provided its variance is finite. This proves the universal behavior of the finite-size effects in branching processes, including the universality of the metric factors. The direct relation to mean-field percolation is also discussed.

Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

2004-01-01

Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

1979-01-01

1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

Generation of anti-idiotype antibodies for application in clinical immunotherapy laboratory analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhanqi; Panousis, Con; Smyth, Fiona E; Murphy, Roger; Wirth, Veronika; Cartwright, Glenn; Johns, Terrance G; Scott, Andrew M

2003-08-01

The chimeric monoclonal antibody ch806 specifically targets the tumor-associated mutant epidermal growth factor receptor (de 2-7EGFR or EGFRVIII) and is currently under investigation for its potential use in cancer therapy. The humanised monoclonal antibody hu3S193 specifically targets the Lewis Y epithelial antigen and is currently in Phase I clinical trials in patients with advanced breast, colon, and ovarian carcinomas. To assist the clinical evaluation of ch806 and hu3S193, laboratory assays are required to monitor their serum pharmacokinetics and quantitate any immune responses to the antibodies. Mice immunized with ch806 or hu3S193 were used to generate hybridomas producing antibodies with specific binding to ch806 or hu3S193 and competitive for antigen binding. These anti-idiotype antibodies (designated Ludwig Melbourne Hybridomas, LMH) were investigated as reagents suitable for use as positive controls for HAHA or HACA analyses and for measuring hu3S193 or ch806 in human serum. Anti-idiotypes with the ability to concurrently bind two target antibody molecules were identified, which enabled the development of highly reproducible, sensitive, specific ELISA assays for determining serum concentrations of hu3S193 and ch806 with a 3 ng/mL limit of quantitation using LMH-3 and LMH-12, respectively. BIAcore analyses determined high apparent binding affinity for both idiotypes: LMH-3 binding immobilized hu3S193, Ka = 4.76 x 10(8) M(-1); LMH-12 binding immobilised ch806, Ka = 1.74 x 10(9) M(-1). Establishment of HAHA or HACA analysis of sera samples using BIAcore was possible using LMH-3 and LMH-12 as positive controls for quantitation of immune responses to hu3S193 or ch806 in patient sera. These anti-idiotypes could also be used to study the penetrance and binding of ch806 or hu3S193 to tumor cells through immunohistochemical analysis of tumor biopsies. The generation of anti-idiotype antibodies capable of concurrently binding a target antibody on each variable

On Probability Leakage

OpenAIRE

Briggs, William M.

2012-01-01

The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

Probability analysis of MCO over-pressurization during staging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pajunen, A.L.

1997-01-01

The purpose of this calculation is to determine the probability of Multi-Canister Overpacks (MCOs) over-pressurizing during staging at the Canister Storage Building (CSB). Pressurization of an MCO during staging is dependent upon changes to the MCO gas temperature and the build-up of reaction products during the staging period. These effects are predominantly limited by the amount of water that remains in the MCO following cold vacuum drying that is available for reaction during staging conditions. Because of the potential for increased pressure within an MCO, provisions for a filtered pressure relief valve and rupture disk have been incorporated into the MCO design. This calculation provides an estimate of the frequency that an MCO will contain enough water to pressurize beyond the limits of these design features. The results of this calculation will be used in support of further safety analyses and operational planning efforts. Under the bounding steady state CSB condition assumed for this analysis, an MCO must contain less than 1.6 kg (3.7 lbm) of water available for reaction to preclude actuation of the pressure relief valve at 100 psid. To preclude actuation of the MCO rupture disk at 150 psid, an MCO must contain less than 2.5 kg (5.5 lbm) of water available for reaction. These limits are based on the assumption that hydrogen generated by uranium-water reactions is the sole source of gas produced within the MCO and that hydrates in fuel particulate are the primary source of water available for reactions during staging conditions. The results of this analysis conclude that the probability of the hydrate water content of an MCO exceeding 1.6 kg is 0.08 and the probability that it will exceed 2.5 kg is 0.01. This implies that approximately 32 of 400 staged MCOs may experience pressurization to the point where the pressure relief valve actuates. In the event that an MCO pressure relief valve fails to open, the probability is 1 in 100 that the MCO would experience

Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

2006-01-01

Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

Analysis of the probability of channel satisfactory state in P2P live ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this paper a model based on user behaviour of P2P live streaming systems was developed in order to analyse one of the key QoS parameter of such systems, i.e. the probability of channel-satisfactory state, the impact of upload bandwidths and channels' popularity on the probability of channel-satisfactory state was also ...

MOSRA-SRAC. Lattice calculation module of the modular code system for nuclear reactor analyses MOSRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okumura, Keisuke

2015-10-01

MOSRA-SRAC is a lattice calculation module of the Modular code System for nuclear Reactor Analyses (MOSRA). This module performs the neutron transport calculation for various types of fuel elements including existing light water reactors, research reactors, etc. based on the collision probability method with a set of the 200-group cross-sections generated from the Japanese Evaluated Nuclear Data Library JENDL-4.0. It has also a function of the isotope generation and depletion calculation for up to 234 nuclides in each fuel material in the lattice. In these ways, MOSRA-SRAC prepares the burn-up dependent effective microscopic and macroscopic cross-section data to be used in core calculations. A CD-ROM is attached as an appendix. (J.P.N.)

Theory of overdispersion in counting statistics caused by fluctuating probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semkow, Thomas M.

1999-01-01

It is shown that the random Lexis fluctuations of probabilities such as probability of decay or detection cause the counting statistics to be overdispersed with respect to the classical binomial, Poisson, or Gaussian distributions. The generating and the distribution functions for the overdispersed counting statistics are derived. Applications to radioactive decay with detection and more complex experiments are given, as well as distinguishing between the source and background, in the presence of overdispersion. Monte-Carlo verifications are provided

A comparative study between xerographic, computer-assisted overlay generation and animated-superimposition methods in bite mark analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Tai, Meng Wei; Chong, Zhen Feng; Asif, Muhammad Khan; Rahmat, Rabiah A; Nambiar, Phrabhakaran

2016-09-01

This study was to compare the suitability and precision of xerographic and computer-assisted methods for bite mark investigations. Eleven subjects were asked to bite on their forearm and the bite marks were photographically recorded. Alginate impressions of the subjects' dentition were taken and their casts were made using dental stone. The overlays generated by xerographic method were obtained by photocopying the subjects' casts and the incisal edge outlines were then transferred on a transparent sheet. The bite mark images were imported into Adobe Photoshop® software and printed to life-size. The bite mark analyses using xerographically generated overlays were done by comparing an overlay to the corresponding printed bite mark images manually. In computer-assisted method, the subjects' casts were scanned into Adobe Photoshop®. The bite mark analyses using computer-assisted overlay generation were done by matching an overlay and the corresponding bite mark images digitally using Adobe Photoshop®. Another comparison method was superimposing the cast images with corresponding bite mark images employing the Adobe Photoshop® CS6 and GIF-Animator©. A score with a range of 0-3 was given during analysis to each precision-determining criterion and the score was increased with better matching. The Kruskal Wallis H test showed significant difference between the three sets of data (H=18.761, p<0.05). In conclusion, bite mark analysis using the computer-assisted animated-superimposition method was the most accurate, followed by the computer-assisted overlay generation and lastly the xerographic method. The superior precision contributed by digital method is discernible despite the human skin being a poor recording medium of bite marks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative analyses of two Geraniaceae transcriptomes using next-generation sequencing.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jin; Ruhlman, Tracey A; Mower, Jeffrey P; Jansen, Robert K

2013-12-29

Organelle genomes of Geraniaceae exhibit several unusual evolutionary phenomena compared to other angiosperm families including accelerated nucleotide substitution rates, widespread gene loss, reduced RNA editing, and extensive genomic rearrangements. Since most organelle-encoded proteins function in multi-subunit complexes that also contain nuclear-encoded proteins, it is likely that the atypical organellar phenomena affect the evolution of nuclear genes encoding organellar proteins. To begin to unravel the complex co-evolutionary interplay between organellar and nuclear genomes in this family, we sequenced nuclear transcriptomes of two species, Geranium maderense and Pelargonium x hortorum. Normalized cDNA libraries of G. maderense and P. x hortorum were used for transcriptome sequencing. Five assemblers (MIRA, Newbler, SOAPdenovo, SOAPdenovo-trans [SOAPtrans], Trinity) and two next-generation technologies (454 and Illumina) were compared to determine the optimal transcriptome sequencing approach. Trinity provided the highest quality assembly of Illumina data with the deepest transcriptome coverage. An analysis to determine the amount of sequencing needed for de novo assembly revealed diminishing returns of coverage and quality with data sets larger than sixty million Illumina paired end reads for both species. The G. maderense and P. x hortorum transcriptomes contained fewer transcripts encoding the PLS subclass of PPR proteins relative to other angiosperms, consistent with reduced mitochondrial RNA editing activity in Geraniaceae. In addition, transcripts for all six plastid targeted sigma factors were identified in both transcriptomes, suggesting that one of the highly divergent rpoA-like ORFs in the P. x hortorum plastid genome is functional. The findings support the use of the Illumina platform and assemblers optimized for transcriptome assembly, such as Trinity or SOAPtrans, to generate high-quality de novo transcriptomes with broad coverage. In addition

METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Plotnikova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article describes the method for the forest fire burn probability estimation on a base of Poisson distribution. The λ parameter is assumed to be a mean daily number of fires detected for each Forest Fire Danger Index class within specific period of time. Thus, λ was calculated for spring, summer and autumn seasons separately. Multi-annual daily Forest Fire Danger Index values together with EO-derived hot spot map were input data for the statistical analysis. The major result of the study is generation of the database on forest fire burn probability. Results were validated against EO daily data on forest fires detected over Irkutsk oblast in 2013. Daily weighted average probability was shown to be linked with the daily number of detected forest fires. Meanwhile, there was found a number of fires which were developed when estimated probability was low. The possible explanation of this phenomenon was provided.

Combination of probabilities in looking for cosmic ray sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodman, M.

1991-08-01

The use of small chance probabilities as evidence for sources of cosmic rays is examined, with particular emphasis upon issues involved when combining results from two experiments, two analyses, or two independent tests of the same data. Examples are given in which different methods of combining results should be used

Employment and Wage Assimilation of Male First-generation immigrants in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Husted, Leif; Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Rosholm, Michael

2001-01-01

Labour market assimilation of Danish first generation male immigrants is analysed based on two panel data sets covering the population of immigrants and 10% of the Danish population during 1984-1995. Wages and employment probabilities are estimated jointly in a random effects model which corrects...... for unobserved cohort and individual effects and panel selectivity due to missing wage information. The results show that immigrants assimilate partially to Danes, but the assimilation process differs between refugees and non-refugees....

Reliability and safety analyses under fuzziness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onisawa, T.; Kacprzyk, J.

1995-01-01

Fuzzy theory, for example possibility theory, is compatible with probability theory. What is shown so far is that probability theory needs not be replaced by fuzzy theory, but rather that the former works much better in applications if it is combined with the latter. In fact, it is said that there are two essential uncertainties in the field of reliability and safety analyses: One is a probabilistic uncertainty which is more relevant for mechanical systems and the natural environment, and the other is fuzziness (imprecision) caused by the existence of human beings in systems. The classical probability theory alone is therefore not sufficient to deal with uncertainties in humanistic system. In such a context this collection of works will put a milestone in the arguments of probability theory and fuzzy theory. This volume covers fault analysis, life time analysis, reliability, quality control, safety analysis and risk analysis. (orig./DG). 106 figs

Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vourdas, A.

2014-01-01

The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H 1 ,H 2 ), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H 1 ),P(H 2 ), to the subspaces H 1 , H 2 . As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Moving beyond probabilities – Strength of knowledge characterisations applied to security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Askeland, Tore; Flage, Roger; Aven, Terje

2017-01-01

Many security experts avoid the concept of probability when assessing risk and vulnerabilities. Their main argument is that meaningful probabilities cannot be determined and they are consequently not useful for decision-making and security management. However, to give priority to some measures and not others, the likelihood dimension needs to be addressed in some way; the question is how. One approach receiving attention recently is to add strength of knowledge judgements to the probabilities and probability intervals generated. The judgements provide a qualitative labelling of how strong the knowledge supporting the probability assignments is. Criteria for such labelling have been developed, but not for a security setting. The purpose of this paper is to develop such criteria specific to security applications and, using some examples, to demonstrate their suitability. - Highlights: • The concept of probability is often avoided in security risk assessments. • We argue that the likelihood/probability dimension needs to be somehow addressed. • Probabilities should be supplemented by qualitative strength-of-knowledge scores. • Such criteria specific to security applications are developed. • Two examples are used to demonstrate the suitability of the suggested criteria.

Contributions to quantum probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritz, Tobias

2010-01-01

distribution of a quantum-mechanical von Neumann measurement with postselection, given that the scalar product between the initial and the final state is known as well as the success probability of the postselection. An intermediate von Neumann measurement can enhance transition probabilities between states such that the error probability shrinks by a factor of up to 2. Chapter 4: A presentation of the category of stochastic matrices. This chapter gives generators and relations for the strict monoidal category of probabilistic maps on finite cardinals (i.e., stochastic matrices). Chapter 5: Convex Spaces: Definition and Examples. We try to promote convex spaces as an abstract concept of convexity which was introduced by Stone as ''barycentric calculus''. A convex space is a set where one can take convex combinations in a consistent way. By identifying the corresponding Lawvere theory as the category from chapter 4 and using the results obtained there, we give a different proof of a result of Swirszcz which shows that convex spaces can be identified with algebras of a finitary version of the Giry monad. After giving an extensive list of examples of convex sets as they appear throughout mathematics and theoretical physics, we note that there also exist convex spaces that cannot be embedded into a vector space: semilattices are a class of examples of purely combinatorial type. In an information-theoretic interpretation, convex subsets of vector spaces are probabilistic, while semilattices are possibilistic. Convex spaces unify these two concepts. (orig.)

Stochastics introduction to probability and statistics

CERN Document Server

Georgii, Hans-Otto

2012-01-01

This second revised and extended edition presents the fundamental ideas and results of both, probability theory and statistics, and comprises the material of a one-year course. It is addressed to students with an interest in the mathematical side of stochastics. Stochastic concepts, models and methods are motivated by examples and developed and analysed systematically. Some measure theory is included, but this is done at an elementary level that is in accordance with the introductory character of the book. A large number of problems offer applications and supplements to the text.

Risk analyses of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jehee, J.N.T.; Seebregts, A.J.

1991-02-01

Probabilistic risk analyses of nuclear power plants are carried out by systematically analyzing the possible consequences of a broad spectrum of causes of accidents. The risk can be expressed in the probabilities for melt down, radioactive releases, or harmful effects for the environment. Following risk policies for chemical installations as expressed in the mandatory nature of External Safety Reports (EVRs) or, e.g., the publication ''How to deal with risks'', probabilistic risk analyses are required for nuclear power plants

Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2014-08-01

Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

2016-01-01

While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.

Risk Profile Indicators and Spanish Banks’ Probability of Default from a Regulatory Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pilar Gómez-Fernández-Aguado

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses the relationships between the traditional bank risk profile indicators and a new measure of banks’ probability of default that considers the Basel regulatory framework. First, based on the SYstemic Model of Bank Originated Losses (SYMBOL, we calculated the individual probabilities of default (PD of a representative sample of Spanish credit institutions during the period of 2008–2016. Then, panel data regressions were estimated to explore the influence of the risk indicators on the PD. Our findings on the Spanish banking system could be important to regulatory and supervisory authorities. First, the PD based on the SYMBOL model could be used to analyse bank risk from a regulatory approach. Second, the results might be useful for designing new regulations focused on the key factors that affect the banks’ probability of default. Third, our findings reveal that the emphasis on regulation and supervision should differ by type of entity.

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Goldberg, Samuel

1960-01-01

Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

STADIC: a computer code for combining probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cairns, J.J.; Fleming, K.N.

1977-03-01

The STADIC computer code uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique for combining probability distributions. The specific function for combination of the input distribution is defined by the user by introducing the appropriate FORTRAN statements to the appropriate subroutine. The code generates a Monte Carlo sampling from each of the input distributions and combines these according to the user-supplied function to provide, in essence, a random sampling of the combined distribution. When the desired number of samples is obtained, the output routine calculates the mean, standard deviation, and confidence limits for the resultant distribution. This method of combining probability distributions is particularly useful in cases where analytical approaches are either too difficult or undefined

Statistical models based on conditional probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayanan, R.S.

1991-10-01

We present a formulation of statistical mechanics models based on conditional probability distribution rather than a Hamiltonian. We show that it is possible to realize critical phenomena through this procedure. Closely linked with this formulation is a Monte Carlo algorithm, in which a configuration generated is guaranteed to be statistically independent from any other configuration for all values of the parameters, in particular near the critical point. (orig.)

Fully automatized renal parenchyma volumetry using a support vector machine based recognition system for subject-specific probability map generation in native MR volume data

Science.gov (United States)

Gloger, Oliver; Tönnies, Klaus; Mensel, Birger; Völzke, Henry

2015-11-01

In epidemiological studies as well as in clinical practice the amount of produced medical image data strongly increased in the last decade. In this context organ segmentation in MR volume data gained increasing attention for medical applications. Especially in large-scale population-based studies organ volumetry is highly relevant requiring exact organ segmentation. Since manual segmentation is time-consuming and prone to reader variability, large-scale studies need automatized methods to perform organ segmentation. Fully automatic organ segmentation in native MR image data has proven to be a very challenging task. Imaging artifacts as well as inter- and intrasubject MR-intensity differences complicate the application of supervised learning strategies. Thus, we propose a modularized framework of a two-stepped probabilistic approach that generates subject-specific probability maps for renal parenchyma tissue, which are refined subsequently by using several, extended segmentation strategies. We present a three class-based support vector machine recognition system that incorporates Fourier descriptors as shape features to recognize and segment characteristic parenchyma parts. Probabilistic methods use the segmented characteristic parenchyma parts to generate high quality subject-specific parenchyma probability maps. Several refinement strategies including a final shape-based 3D level set segmentation technique are used in subsequent processing modules to segment renal parenchyma. Furthermore, our framework recognizes and excludes renal cysts from parenchymal volume, which is important to analyze renal functions. Volume errors and Dice coefficients show that our presented framework outperforms existing approaches.

Fully automatized renal parenchyma volumetry using a support vector machine based recognition system for subject-specific probability map generation in native MR volume data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gloger, Oliver; Völzke, Henry; Tönnies, Klaus; Mensel, Birger

2015-01-01

In epidemiological studies as well as in clinical practice the amount of produced medical image data strongly increased in the last decade. In this context organ segmentation in MR volume data gained increasing attention for medical applications. Especially in large-scale population-based studies organ volumetry is highly relevant requiring exact organ segmentation. Since manual segmentation is time-consuming and prone to reader variability, large-scale studies need automatized methods to perform organ segmentation. Fully automatic organ segmentation in native MR image data has proven to be a very challenging task. Imaging artifacts as well as inter- and intrasubject MR-intensity differences complicate the application of supervised learning strategies. Thus, we propose a modularized framework of a two-stepped probabilistic approach that generates subject-specific probability maps for renal parenchyma tissue, which are refined subsequently by using several, extended segmentation strategies. We present a three class-based support vector machine recognition system that incorporates Fourier descriptors as shape features to recognize and segment characteristic parenchyma parts. Probabilistic methods use the segmented characteristic parenchyma parts to generate high quality subject-specific parenchyma probability maps. Several refinement strategies including a final shape-based 3D level set segmentation technique are used in subsequent processing modules to segment renal parenchyma. Furthermore, our framework recognizes and excludes renal cysts from parenchymal volume, which is important to analyze renal functions. Volume errors and Dice coefficients show that our presented framework outperforms existing approaches. (paper)

Probability 1/e

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

Predictive analyses of flow-induced vibration and fretting wear in steam generator tubes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Axisa, F.

1989-01-01

Maintaining the service life of PWR steam generators under highly reliable conditions requires a complex design to prevent various damaging processes, including those related to flow induced vibration. Predictive analyses have to rely on numerical tools to compute the vibratory response of multi-supported tubes in association with experimental data and semi-empirical relationships for quantifying flow-induced excitation mechanisms and tube damaging processes. In the presence of loose supports tube dynamics becomes highly nonlinear in nature. To deal with such problems CEA and FRAMATOME developed a computer program called GERBOISE. This paper provides a short description of an experimental program currently in progress at CEN Saclay to validate the numerical methods implemented in GERBOISE. According to the results obtained so far reasonable agreement is obtained between experiment and numerical simulation, especially as averaged quantities are concerned

The Misapplication of Probability Theory in Quantum Mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Racicot, Ronald

2014-03-01

This article is a revision of two papers submitted to the APS in the past two and a half years. In these papers, arguments and proofs are summarized for the following: (1) The wrong conclusion by EPR that Quantum Mechanics is incomplete, perhaps requiring the addition of ``hidden variables'' for completion. Theorems that assume such ``hidden variables,'' such as Bell's theorem, are also wrong. (2) Quantum entanglement is not a realizable physical phenomenon and is based entirely on assuming a probability superposition model for quantum spin. Such a model directly violates conservation of angular momentum. (3) Simultaneous multiple-paths followed by a quantum particle traveling through space also cannot possibly exist. Besides violating Noether's theorem, the multiple-paths theory is based solely on probability calculations. Probability calculations by themselves cannot possibly represent simultaneous physically real events. None of the reviews of the submitted papers actually refuted the arguments and evidence that was presented. These analyses should therefore be carefully evaluated since the conclusions reached have such important impact in quantum mechanics and quantum information theory.

Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toppila, Antti; Salo, Ahti

2017-01-01

A central problem in risk management is that of identifying the optimal combination (or portfolio) of improvements that enhance the reliability of the system most through reducing failure event probabilities, subject to the availability of resources. This optimal portfolio can be sensitive with regard to epistemic uncertainties about the failure events' probabilities. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to support the allocation of resources to improvements that mitigate risks in coherent systems in which interval-valued probabilities defined by lower and upper bounds are employed to capture epistemic uncertainties. Decision recommendations are based on portfolio dominance: a resource allocation portfolio is dominated if there exists another portfolio that improves system reliability (i) at least as much for all feasible failure probabilities and (ii) strictly more for some feasible probabilities. Based on non-dominated portfolios, recommendations about improvements to implement are derived by inspecting in how many non-dominated portfolios a given improvement is contained. We present an exact method for computing the non-dominated portfolios. We also present an approximate method that simplifies the reliability function using total order interactions so that larger problem instances can be solved with reasonable computational effort. - Highlights: • Reliability allocation under epistemic uncertainty about probabilities. • Comparison of alternatives using dominance. • Computational methods for generating the non-dominated alternatives. • Deriving decision recommendations that are robust with respect to epistemic uncertainty.

Contributions to quantum probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fritz, Tobias

2010-06-25

finite set can occur as the outcome distribution of a quantum-mechanical von Neumann measurement with postselection, given that the scalar product between the initial and the final state is known as well as the success probability of the postselection. An intermediate von Neumann measurement can enhance transition probabilities between states such that the error probability shrinks by a factor of up to 2. Chapter 4: A presentation of the category of stochastic matrices. This chapter gives generators and relations for the strict monoidal category of probabilistic maps on finite cardinals (i.e., stochastic matrices). Chapter 5: Convex Spaces: Definition and Examples. We try to promote convex spaces as an abstract concept of convexity which was introduced by Stone as ''barycentric calculus''. A convex space is a set where one can take convex combinations in a consistent way. By identifying the corresponding Lawvere theory as the category from chapter 4 and using the results obtained there, we give a different proof of a result of Swirszcz which shows that convex spaces can be identified with algebras of a finitary version of the Giry monad. After giving an extensive list of examples of convex sets as they appear throughout mathematics and theoretical physics, we note that there also exist convex spaces that cannot be embedded into a vector space: semilattices are a class of examples of purely combinatorial type. In an information-theoretic interpretation, convex subsets of vector spaces are probabilistic, while semilattices are possibilistic. Convex spaces unify these two concepts. (orig.)

Foundations of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraassen, B.C. van

1979-01-01

The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

Generative adversarial networks for brain lesion detection

Science.gov (United States)

Alex, Varghese; Safwan, K. P. Mohammed; Chennamsetty, Sai Saketh; Krishnamurthi, Ganapathy

2017-02-01

Manual segmentation of brain lesions from Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) is cumbersome and introduces errors due to inter-rater variability. This paper introduces a semi-supervised technique for detection of brain lesion from MRI using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). GANs comprises of a Generator network and a Discriminator network which are trained simultaneously with the objective of one bettering the other. The networks were trained using non lesion patches (n=13,000) from 4 different MR sequences. The network was trained on BraTS dataset and patches were extracted from regions excluding tumor region. The Generator network generates data by modeling the underlying probability distribution of the training data, (PData). The Discriminator learns the posterior probability P (Label Data) by classifying training data and generated data as "Real" or "Fake" respectively. The Generator upon learning the joint distribution, produces images/patches such that the performance of the Discriminator on them are random, i.e. P (Label Data = GeneratedData) = 0.5. During testing, the Discriminator assigns posterior probability values close to 0.5 for patches from non lesion regions, while patches centered on lesion arise from a different distribution (PLesion) and hence are assigned lower posterior probability value by the Discriminator. On the test set (n=14), the proposed technique achieves whole tumor dice score of 0.69, sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 59%. Additionally the generator network was capable of generating non lesion patches from various MR sequences.

Is the classical law of the addition of probabilities violated in quantum interference?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arsenovic, Dusan; Bozic, Mirjana; Vuskovic, Lepsa

2002-01-01

We analyse and compare the positive and negative arguments on whether quantum interference violates the classical law of the addition of probabilities. The analysis takes into account the results of recent interference experiments in neutron, electron and atom optics. Nonclassical behaviour of atoms was found in atomic experiments where the measurements included their time of arrival and space distribution. We determine probabilities of elementary events associated with the nonclassical behaviour of particles in interferometers. We show that the emergence of the interference pattern in the process of accumulation of such elementary events is consistent with the classical law of the addition of probabilities

Probability sampling design in ethnobotanical surveys of medicinal plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariano Martinez Espinosa

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Non-probability sampling design can be used in ethnobotanical surveys of medicinal plants. However, this method does not allow statistical inferences to be made from the data generated. The aim of this paper is to present a probability sampling design that is applicable in ethnobotanical studies of medicinal plants. The sampling design employed in the research titled "Ethnobotanical knowledge of medicinal plants used by traditional communities of Nossa Senhora Aparecida do Chumbo district (NSACD, Poconé, Mato Grosso, Brazil" was used as a case study. Probability sampling methods (simple random and stratified sampling were used in this study. In order to determine the sample size, the following data were considered: population size (N of 1179 families; confidence coefficient, 95%; sample error (d, 0.05; and a proportion (p, 0.5. The application of this sampling method resulted in a sample size (n of at least 290 families in the district. The present study concludes that probability sampling methods necessarily have to be employed in ethnobotanical studies of medicinal plants, particularly where statistical inferences have to be made using data obtained. This can be achieved by applying different existing probability sampling methods, or better still, a combination of such methods.

Non-Archimedean Probability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

Handbook of probability

CERN Document Server

Florescu, Ionut

2013-01-01

THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

2011-01-01

Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

Discriminating Among Probability Weighting Functions Using Adaptive Design Optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Pitt, Mark A.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.

2014-01-01

Probability weighting functions relate objective probabilities and their subjective weights, and play a central role in modeling choices under risk within cumulative prospect theory. While several different parametric forms have been proposed, their qualitative similarities make it challenging to discriminate among them empirically. In this paper, we use both simulation and choice experiments to investigate the extent to which different parametric forms of the probability weighting function can be discriminated using adaptive design optimization, a computer-based methodology that identifies and exploits model differences for the purpose of model discrimination. The simulation experiments show that the correct (data-generating) form can be conclusively discriminated from its competitors. The results of an empirical experiment reveal heterogeneity between participants in terms of the functional form, with two models (Prelec-2, Linear in Log Odds) emerging as the most common best-fitting models. The findings shed light on assumptions underlying these models. PMID:24453406

Intergenerational Transmission and the School-to-work Transition for 2nd Generation Immigrants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Rosholm, Michael; Smith, Nina

2001-01-01

We analyse the extent of intergenerational transmission through parental capital, ethnic capital and neighbourhood effects on several aspects of the school-to-work transition of 2nd generation immigrants and young ethnic Danes. The main findings are that parental capital has strong positive effects...... on the probability of completing a qualifying education and on the entry into the labour market, but it has a much smaller impact on the duration of the first employment spell and on the wage level. Growing up in neighbourhoods with a high concentration of immigrants is associated with negative labour market...... prospects both for young natives and 2nd generation immigrants....

Forecasting the Stock Market with Linguistic Rules Generated from the Minimize Entropy Principle and the Cumulative Probability Distribution Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chung-Ho Su

2010-12-01

Full Text Available To forecast a complex and non-linear system, such as a stock market, advanced artificial intelligence algorithms, like neural networks (NNs and genetic algorithms (GAs have been proposed as new approaches. However, for the average stock investor, two major disadvantages are argued against these advanced algorithms: (1 the rules generated by NNs and GAs are difficult to apply in investment decisions; and (2 the time complexity of the algorithms to produce forecasting outcomes is very high. Therefore, to provide understandable rules for investors and to reduce the time complexity of forecasting algorithms, this paper proposes a novel model for the forecasting process, which combines two granulating methods (the minimize entropy principle approach and the cumulative probability distribution approach and a rough set algorithm. The model verification demonstrates that the proposed model surpasses the three listed conventional fuzzy time-series models and a multiple regression model (MLR in forecast accuracy.

Theoretical analysis on the probability of initiating persistent fission chain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Jianjun; Wang Zhe; Zhang Ben'ai

2005-01-01

For the finite multiplying system of fissile material in the presence of a weak neutron source, the authors analyses problems on the probability of initiating a persistent fission chain through reckoning the stochastic theory of neutron multiplication. In the theoretical treatment, the conventional point reactor conception model is developed to an improved form with position x and velocity v dependence. The estimated results including approximate value of the probability mentioned above and its distribution are given by means of diffusion approximation and compared with those with previous point reactor conception model. They are basically consistent, however the present model can provide details on the distribution. (authors)

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M; Edwards, Thomas C; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M

2014-12-01

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate ( r ) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density ( N ) relate to occurrence probability ( P occ ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P occ , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P occ . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

Determination of probability density functions for parameters in the Munson-Dawson model for creep behavior of salt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfeifle, T.W.; Mellegard, K.D.; Munson, D.E.

1992-10-01

The modified Munson-Dawson (M-D) constitutive model that describes the creep behavior of salt will be used in performance assessment calculations to assess compliance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) facility with requirements governing the disposal of nuclear waste. One of these standards requires that the uncertainty of future states of the system, material model parameters, and data be addressed in the performance assessment models. This paper presents a method in which measurement uncertainty and the inherent variability of the material are characterized by treating the M-D model parameters as random variables. The random variables can be described by appropriate probability distribution functions which then can be used in Monte Carlo or structural reliability analyses. Estimates of three random variables in the M-D model were obtained by fitting a scalar form of the model to triaxial compression creep data generated from tests of WIPP salt. Candidate probability distribution functions for each of the variables were then fitted to the estimates and their relative goodness-of-fit tested using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. A sophisticated statistical software package obtained from BMDP Statistical Software, Inc. was used in the M-D model fitting. A separate software package, STATGRAPHICS, was used in fitting the candidate probability distribution functions to estimates of the variables. Skewed distributions, i.e., lognormal and Weibull, were found to be appropriate for the random variables analyzed

Impact of distributed generation in the probability density of voltage sags; Impacto da geracao distribuida na densidade de probabilidade de afundamentos de tensao

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramos, Alessandro Candido Lopes [CELG - Companhia Energetica de Goias, Goiania, GO (Brazil). Generation and Transmission. System' s Operation Center], E-mail: alessandro.clr@celg.com.br; Batista, Adalberto Jose [Universidade Federal de Goias (UFG), Goiania, GO (Brazil)], E-mail: batista@eee.ufg.br; Leborgne, Roberto Chouhy [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)], E-mail: rcl@ece.ufrgs.br; Emiliano, Pedro Henrique Mota, E-mail: ph@phph.com.br

2009-07-01

This article presents the impact of distributed generation in studies of voltage sags caused by faults in the electrical system. We simulated short-circuit-to-ground in 62 lines of 230, 138, 69 and 13.8 kV that are part of the electrical system of the city of Goiania, of Goias state . For each fault position was monitored the bus voltage of 380 V in an industrial consumer sensitive to such sags. Were inserted different levels of GD near the consumer. The simulations of a short circuit, with the monitoring bar 380 V, were performed again. A study using stochastic simulation Monte Carlo (SMC) was performed to obtain, at each level of GD, the probability curves and sags of the probability density and its voltage class. With these curves were obtained the average number of sags according to each class, that the consumer bar may be submitted annually. The simulations were performed using the Program Analysis of Simultaneous Faults - ANAFAS. In order to overcome the intrinsic limitations of the methods of simulation of this program and allow data entry via windows, a computational tool was developed in Java language. Data processing was done using the MATLAB software.

Interactions between risk factors in the prediction of onset of eating disorders: Exploratory hypothesis generating analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Stice, Eric; Desjardins, Christopher D

2018-06-01

Because no study has tested for interactions between risk factors in the prediction of future onset of each eating disorder, this exploratory study addressed this lacuna to generate hypotheses to be tested in future confirmatory studies. Data from three prevention trials that targeted young women at high risk for eating disorders due to body dissatisfaction (N = 1271; M age 18.5, SD 4.2) and collected diagnostic interview data over 3-year follow-up were combined to permit sufficient power to predict onset of anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and purging disorder (PD) using classification tree analyses, an analytic technique uniquely suited to detecting interactions. Low BMI was the most potent predictor of AN onset, and body dissatisfaction amplified this relation. Overeating was the most potent predictor of BN onset, and positive expectancies for thinness and body dissatisfaction amplified this relation. Body dissatisfaction was the most potent predictor of BED onset, and overeating, low dieting, and thin-ideal internalization amplified this relation. Dieting was the most potent predictor of PD onset, and negative affect and positive expectancies for thinness amplified this relation. Results provided evidence of amplifying interactions between risk factors suggestive of cumulative risk processes that were distinct for each disorder; future confirmatory studies should test the interactive hypotheses generated by these analyses. If hypotheses are confirmed, results may allow interventionists to target ultra high-risk subpopulations with more intensive prevention programs that are uniquely tailored for each eating disorder, potentially improving the yield of prevention efforts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selected papers on analysis, probability, and statistics

CERN Document Server

Nomizu, Katsumi

1994-01-01

This book presents papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sugaku. The papers fall into the general area of mathematical analysis as it pertains to probability and statistics, dynamical systems, differential equations and analytic function theory. Among the topics discussed are: stochastic differential equations, spectra of the Laplacian and Schrödinger operators, nonlinear partial differential equations which generate dissipative dynamical systems, fractal analysis on self-similar sets and the global structure of analytic functions.

Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Sulis, William H

2017-10-01

Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

Janus-faced probability

CERN Document Server

Rocchi, Paolo

2014-01-01

The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

Ruin probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

Interpretations of probability

CERN Document Server

Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-01-01

This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

Scale-invariant transition probabilities in free word association trajectories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Elias Costa

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Free-word association has been used as a vehicle to understand the organization of human thoughts. The original studies relied mainly on qualitative assertions, yielding the widely intuitive notion that trajectories of word associations are structured, yet considerably more random than organized linguistic text. Here we set to determine a precise characterization of this space, generating a large number of word association trajectories in a web implemented game. We embedded the trajectories in the graph of word co-occurrences from a linguistic corpus. To constrain possible transport models we measured the memory loss and the cycling probability. These two measures could not be reconciled by a bounded diffusive model since the cycling probability was very high (16 % of order-2 cycles implying a majority of short-range associations whereas the memory loss was very rapid (converging to the asymptotic value in ∼ 7 steps which, in turn, forced a high fraction of long-range associations. We show that memory loss and cycling probabilities of free word association trajectories can be simultaneously accounted by a model in which transitions are determined by a scale invariant probability distribution.

PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFTS AND QUASAR PROBABILITIES FROM A SINGLE, DATA-DRIVEN GENERATIVE MODEL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bovy, Jo; Hogg, David W.; Weaver, Benjamin A.; Myers, Adam D.; Hennawi, Joseph F.; McMahon, Richard G.; Schiminovich, David; Sheldon, Erin S.; Brinkmann, Jon; Schneider, Donald P.

2012-01-01

We describe a technique for simultaneously classifying and estimating the redshift of quasars. It can separate quasars from stars in arbitrary redshift ranges, estimate full posterior distribution functions for the redshift, and naturally incorporate flux uncertainties, missing data, and multi-wavelength photometry. We build models of quasars in flux-redshift space by applying the extreme deconvolution technique to estimate the underlying density. By integrating this density over redshift, one can obtain quasar flux densities in different redshift ranges. This approach allows for efficient, consistent, and fast classification and photometric redshift estimation. This is achieved by combining the speed obtained by choosing simple analytical forms as the basis of our density model with the flexibility of non-parametric models through the use of many simple components with many parameters. We show that this technique is competitive with the best photometric quasar classification techniques—which are limited to fixed, broad redshift ranges and high signal-to-noise ratio data—and with the best photometric redshift techniques when applied to broadband optical data. We demonstrate that the inclusion of UV and NIR data significantly improves photometric quasar-star separation and essentially resolves all of the redshift degeneracies for quasars inherent to the ugriz filter system, even when included data have a low signal-to-noise ratio. For quasars spectroscopically confirmed by the SDSS 84% and 97% of the objects with Galaxy Evolution Explorer UV and UKIDSS NIR data have photometric redshifts within 0.1 and 0.3, respectively, of the spectroscopic redshift; this amounts to about a factor of three improvement over ugriz-only photometric redshifts. Our code to calculate quasar probabilities and redshift probability distributions is publicly available.

On Generating Optimal Signal Probabilities for Random Tests: A Genetic Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Srinivas

1996-01-01

Full Text Available Genetic Algorithms are robust search and optimization techniques. A Genetic Algorithm based approach for determining the optimal input distributions for generating random test vectors is proposed in the paper. A cost function based on the COP testability measure for determining the efficacy of the input distributions is discussed. A brief overview of Genetic Algorithms (GAs and the specific details of our implementation are described. Experimental results based on ISCAS-85 benchmark circuits are presented. The performance of our GAbased approach is compared with previous results. While the GA generates more efficient input distributions than the previous methods which are based on gradient descent search, the overheads of the GA in computing the input distributions are larger.

Probability of coincidental similarity among the orbits of small bodies - I. Pairing

Science.gov (United States)

Jopek, Tadeusz Jan; Bronikowska, Małgorzata

2017-09-01

Probability of coincidental clustering among orbits of comets, asteroids and meteoroids depends on many factors like: the size of the orbital sample searched for clusters or the size of the identified group, it is different for groups of 2,3,4,… members. Probability of coincidental clustering is assessed by the numerical simulation, therefore, it depends also on the method used for the synthetic orbits generation. We have tested the impact of some of these factors. For a given size of the orbital sample we have assessed probability of random pairing among several orbital populations of different sizes. We have found how these probabilities vary with the size of the orbital samples. Finally, keeping fixed size of the orbital sample we have shown that the probability of random pairing can be significantly different for the orbital samples obtained by different observation techniques. Also for the user convenience we have obtained several formulae which, for given size of the orbital sample can be used to calculate the similarity threshold corresponding to the small value of the probability of coincidental similarity among two orbits.

Application of a Reliability Model Generator to a Pressure Tank System

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Kathryn Stockwell; Sarah Dunnett

2013-01-01

A number of mathematical modelling techniques exist which are used to measure the performance of a given system,by assessing each individual component within the system.This can be used to determine the failure frequency or probability of the system.Software is available to undertake the task of analysing these mathematical models after an individual or group of individuals manually create the models.The process of generating these models is time consuming and reduces the impact of the model on the system design.One way to improve this would be to generate the model automatically.In this work,the procedure to automatically construct a model,based on Petri nets,for systems undergoing a phased-mission is applied to a pressure tank system,undertaking a four phase mission.

On the average capacity and bit error probability of wireless communication systems

KAUST Repository

Yilmaz, Ferkan; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2011-01-01

Analysis of the average binary error probabilities and average capacity of wireless communications systems over generalized fading channels have been considered separately in the past. This paper introduces a novel moment generating function

Exact capture probability analysis of GSC receivers over Rayleigh fading channel

KAUST Repository

Nam, Sungsik

2010-01-01

For third generation systems and ultrawideband systems, RAKE receivers have been introduced due to the advantage of RAKE receivers which is their ability to combine different replicas of the transmitted signal arriving at different delays in a rich multipath environment. In principle, RAKE receivers combine all resolvable paths which gives the best performance in a rich diversity environment. However, this is usually costly in terms of hardware required as the number of RAKE fingers increases. Therefore, generalized selection combining (GSC) RAKE reception was proposed and has been studied by many researcher as an alternative to the classical two fundamental diversity schemes: maximal ratio combining and selection combining. Previous work on performance analyses of GSC RAKE receivers based on the signal to noise ratio focused on the development of methodologies to derive exact closedform expressions for various performance measures. However, the remaining set of uncombined paths affect the overall performance both in terms of loss in power. Therefore, to have a full understanding of the performance of GSC RAKE receivers, we introduce in this paper the notion of capture probability, which is defined as the ratio of the captured power (essentially combined paths power) to that of the total available power. The major difficulty in these problems is to derive some joint statistics of ordered exponential variates. With this motivation in mind, we capitalize in this paper on some new order statistics results to derive exact closed-form expressions for the capture probability over independent and identically distributed Rayleigh fading channels. © 2010 IEEE.

Numerical analyses for efficient photoionization by nonmonochromatic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Shuichi; Suzuki, Atsuyuki

2000-01-01

Numerical analyses on excitation and ionization probabilities of atoms with hyperfine structures were performed in order to compare two different excitation methods, adiabatic excitation and broadband excitation. The lifetime of the intermediate states was considered in order to investigate the effect of the absorption line broadening. The dependences of the two excitation methods on the lifetime were found to be quite different. The ionization probability by the adiabatic excitation is higher than that by the broadband excitation for identical excitation laser intensity. (author)

Thermo hydrodynamical analyses of steam generator of nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petelin, S.; Gregoric, M.

1984-01-01

SMUP computer code for stationary model of a U-tube steam generator of a PWR nuclear power plant was developed. feed water flow can enter through main and auxiliary path. The computer code is based on the one dimensional mathematical model. Among the results that give an insight into physical processes along the tubes of steam generator are distribution of temperatures, water qualities, heat transfer rates. Parametric analysis permits conclusion on advantage of each design solution regarding heat transfer effects and safety of steam generator. (author)

Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Lehner

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative probabilities. When forecasts are expressed with clarity, then quantitative measures (scoring rules, calibration, discrimination, etc. can be used to measure forecast accuracy, which in turn can be used to measure the comparative accuracy of different forecasting methods. Unfortunately most real world forecasts are not expressed clearly. This lack of clarity extends to both the description of the forecast event and to the use of vague language to express forecast certainty. It is thus difficult to assess the accuracy of most real world forecasts, and consequently the accuracy the methods used to generate real world forecasts. This paper addresses this deficiency by presenting an approach to measuring the accuracy of imprecise real world forecasts using the same quantitative metrics routinely used to measure the accuracy of well-defined forecasts. To demonstrate applicability, the Inferred Probability Method is applied to measure the accuracy of forecasts in fourteen documents examining complex political domains. Key words: inferred probability, imputed probability, judgment-based forecasting, forecast accuracy, imprecise forecasts, political forecasting, verbal probability, probability calibration.

Estimation of functional failure probability of passive systems based on subset simulation method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Dongqing; Wang Baosheng; Zhang Jianmin; Jiang Jing

2012-01-01

In order to solve the problem of multi-dimensional epistemic uncertainties and small functional failure probability of passive systems, an innovative reliability analysis algorithm called subset simulation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo was presented. The method is found on the idea that a small failure probability can be expressed as a product of larger conditional failure probabilities by introducing a proper choice of intermediate failure events. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to efficiently generate conditional samples for estimating the conditional failure probabilities. Taking the AP1000 passive residual heat removal system, for example, the uncertainties related to the model of a passive system and the numerical values of its input parameters were considered in this paper. And then the probability of functional failure was estimated with subset simulation method. The numerical results demonstrate that subset simulation method has the high computing efficiency and excellent computing accuracy compared with traditional probability analysis methods. (authors)

Control Surface Fault Diagnosis with Specified Detection Probability - Real Event Experiences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Søren; Blanke, Mogens

2013-01-01

desired levels of false alarms and detection probabilities. Self-tuning residual generators are employed for diagnosis and are combined with statistical change detection to form a setup for robust fault diagnosis. On-line estimation of test statistics is used to obtain a detection threshold and a desired...... false alarm probability. A data based method is used to determine the validity of the methods proposed. Verification is achieved using real data and shows that the presented diagnosis method is efficient and could have avoided incidents where faults led to loss of aircraft....

An investigation of the ignition probability and data analysis for the detection of relevant parameters of mechanically generated steel sparks in explosive gas/air-mixtures; Untersuchungen zur Zuendwahrscheinlichkeit und Datenanalyse zur Erfassung der Einflussgroessen mechanisch erzeugter Stahl-Schlagfunktion in explosionsfaehigen Brenngas/Luft-Gemischen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grunewald, Thomas; Finke, Robert; Graetz, Rainer

2010-07-01

Mechanically generated sparks are a potential source of ignition in highly combustible areas. A multiplicity of mechanical and reaction-kinetic influences causes a complex interaction of parameters. It is only little known about their effect on the ignition probability. The ignition probability of mechanically generated sparks with a material combination of unalloyed steel/unalloyed steel and with an kinetic impact energy between 3 and 277 Nm could be determined statistically tolerable. In addition, the explosiveness of not oxidized particles at increased temperatures in excess stoichiometric mixtures was proven. A unique correlation between impact energy and ignition probability as well as a correlation of impact energy and number of separated particles could be determined. Also, a principle component analysis considering the interaction of individual particles could not find a specific combination of measurable characteristics of the particles, which correlate with a distinct increase of the ignition probability.

Markov transition probability-based network from time series for characterizing experimental two-phase flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Zhong-Ke; Hu Li-Dan; Jin Ning-De

2013-01-01

We generate a directed weighted complex network by a method based on Markov transition probability to represent an experimental two-phase flow. We first systematically carry out gas—liquid two-phase flow experiments for measuring the time series of flow signals. Then we construct directed weighted complex networks from various time series in terms of a network generation method based on Markov transition probability. We find that the generated network inherits the main features of the time series in the network structure. In particular, the networks from time series with different dynamics exhibit distinct topological properties. Finally, we construct two-phase flow directed weighted networks from experimental signals and associate the dynamic behavior of gas-liquid two-phase flow with the topological statistics of the generated networks. The results suggest that the topological statistics of two-phase flow networks allow quantitative characterization of the dynamic flow behavior in the transitions among different gas—liquid flow patterns. (general)

Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function

Science.gov (United States)

Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.

2011-01-01

In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.

Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

OpenAIRE

Melucci, Massimo

2011-01-01

The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

Emergency diesel generator reliability analysis high flux isotope reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merryman, L.; Christie, B.

1993-01-01

A program to apply some of the techniques of reliability engineering to the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) was started on August 8, 1992. Part of the program was to track the conditional probabilities of the emergency diesel generators responding to a valid demand. This was done to determine if the performance of the emergency diesel generators (which are more than 25 years old) has deteriorated. The conditional probabilities of the diesel generators were computed and trended for the period from May 1990 to December 1992. The calculations indicate that the performance of the emergency diesel generators has not deteriorated in recent years, i.e., the conditional probabilities of the emergency diesel generators have been fairly stable over the last few years. This information will be one factor than may be considered in the decision to replace the emergency diesel generators

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

Probability of Failure Analysis Standards and Guidelines for Expendable Launch Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Wilde, Paul D.; Morse, Elisabeth L.; Rosati, Paul; Cather, Corey

2013-09-01

Recognizing the central importance of probability of failure estimates to ensuring public safety for launches, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and U.S. Air Force (USAF), through the Common Standards Working Group (CSWG), developed a guide for conducting valid probability of failure (POF) analyses for expendable launch vehicles (ELV), with an emphasis on POF analysis for new ELVs. A probability of failure analysis for an ELV produces estimates of the likelihood of occurrence of potentially hazardous events, which are critical inputs to launch risk analysis of debris, toxic, or explosive hazards. This guide is intended to document a framework for POF analyses commonly accepted in the US, and should be useful to anyone who performs or evaluates launch risk analyses for new ELVs. The CSWG guidelines provide performance standards and definitions of key terms, and are being revised to address allocation to flight times and vehicle response modes. The POF performance standard allows a launch operator to employ alternative, potentially innovative methodologies so long as the results satisfy the performance standard. Current POF analysis practice at US ranges includes multiple methodologies described in the guidelines as accepted methods, but not necessarily the only methods available to demonstrate compliance with the performance standard. The guidelines include illustrative examples for each POF analysis method, which are intended to illustrate an acceptable level of fidelity for ELV POF analyses used to ensure public safety. The focus is on providing guiding principles rather than "recipe lists." Independent reviews of these guidelines were performed to assess their logic, completeness, accuracy, self- consistency, consistency with risk analysis practices, use of available information, and ease of applicability. The independent reviews confirmed the

Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julian Vasilev

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with applying probit and logit models in loan management institutions. A new aspect of the credit risk analysis is given. Calculating the probability of returning a loan is a difficult task. We assume that specific data fields concerning the contract (month of signing, year of signing, given sum and data fields concerning the borrower of the loan (month of birth, year of birth (age, gender, region, where he/she lives may be independent variables in a binary logistics model with a dependent variable “the probability of returning a loan”. It is proved that the month of signing a contract, the year of signing a contract, the gender and the age of the loan owner do not affect the probability of returning a loan. It is proved that the probability of returning a loan depends on the sum of contract, the remoteness of the loan owner and the month of birth. The probability of returning a loan increases with the increase of the given sum, decreases with the proximity of the customer, increases for people born in the beginning of the year and decreases for people born at the end of the year.

APPROXIMATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN QUEUEING MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. I. Aliev

2013-03-01

Full Text Available For probability distributions with variation coefficient, not equal to unity, mathematical dependences for approximating distributions on the basis of first two moments are derived by making use of multi exponential distributions. It is proposed to approximate distributions with coefficient of variation less than unity by using hypoexponential distribution, which makes it possible to generate random variables with coefficient of variation, taking any value in a range (0; 1, as opposed to Erlang distribution, having only discrete values of coefficient of variation.

On the Possibility of Assigning Probabilities to Singular Cases, or: Probability Is Subjective Too!

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark R. Crovelli

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Both Ludwig von Mises and Richard von Mises claimed that numerical probability could not be legitimately applied to singular cases. This paper challenges this aspect of the von Mises brothers’ theory of probability. It is argued that their denial that numerical probability could be applied to singular cases was based solely upon Richard von Mises’ exceptionally restrictive definition of probability. This paper challenges Richard von Mises’ definition of probability by arguing that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon whether the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is argued that if the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws, a subjective definition of probability must be adopted. It is further argued that both the nature of human action and the relative frequency method for calculating numerical probabilities both presuppose that the world is indeed governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is finally argued that the subjective definition of probability undercuts the von Mises claim that numerical probability cannot legitimately be applied to singular, non-replicable cases.

Modeling the probability distribution of peak discharge for infiltrating hillslopes

Science.gov (United States)

Baiamonte, Giorgio; Singh, Vijay P.

2017-07-01

Hillslope response plays a fundamental role in the prediction of peak discharge at the basin outlet. The peak discharge for the critical duration of rainfall and its probability distribution are needed for designing urban infrastructure facilities. This study derives the probability distribution, denoted as GABS model, by coupling three models: (1) the Green-Ampt model for computing infiltration, (2) the kinematic wave model for computing discharge hydrograph from the hillslope, and (3) the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model for computing design rainfall intensity. The Hortonian mechanism for runoff generation is employed for computing the surface runoff hydrograph. Since the antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) significantly affects the rate of infiltration, its effect on the probability distribution of peak discharge is investigated. Application to a watershed in Sicily, Italy, shows that with the increase of probability, the expected effect of ASMC to increase the maximum discharge diminishes. Only for low values of probability, the critical duration of rainfall is influenced by ASMC, whereas its effect on the peak discharge seems to be less for any probability. For a set of parameters, the derived probability distribution of peak discharge seems to be fitted by the gamma distribution well. Finally, an application to a small watershed, with the aim to test the possibility to arrange in advance the rational runoff coefficient tables to be used for the rational method, and a comparison between peak discharges obtained by the GABS model with those measured in an experimental flume for a loamy-sand soil were carried out.

Long-Term Fatigue and Its Probability of Failure Applied to Dental Implants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Prados-Privado

2016-01-01

Full Text Available It is well known that dental implants have a high success rate but even so, there are a lot of factors that can cause dental implants failure. Fatigue is very sensitive to many variables involved in this phenomenon. This paper takes a close look at fatigue analysis and explains a new method to study fatigue from a probabilistic point of view, based on a cumulative damage model and probabilistic finite elements, with the goal of obtaining the expected life and the probability of failure. Two different dental implants were analysed. The model simulated a load of 178 N applied with an angle of 0°, 15°, and 20° and a force of 489 N with the same angles. Von Mises stress distribution was evaluated and once the methodology proposed here was used, the statistic of the fatigue life and the probability cumulative function were obtained. This function allows us to relate each cycle life with its probability of failure. Cylindrical implant has a worst behaviour under the same loading force compared to the conical implant analysed here. Methodology employed in the present study provides very accuracy results because all possible uncertainties have been taken in mind from the beginning.

Full in-vitro analyses of new-generation bulk fill dental composites cured by halogen light.

Science.gov (United States)

Tekin, Tuçe Hazal; Kantürk Figen, Aysel; Yılmaz Atalı, Pınar; Coşkuner Filiz, Bilge; Pişkin, Mehmet Burçin

2017-08-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the full in-vitro analyses of new-generation bulk-fill dental composites cured by halogen light (HLG). Two types' four composites were studied: Surefill SDR (SDR) and Xtra Base (XB) as bulk-fill flowable materials; QuixFill (QF) and XtraFill (XF) as packable bulk-fill materials. Samples were prepared for each analysis and test by applying the same procedure, but with different diameters and thicknesses appropriate to the analysis and test requirements. Thermal properties were determined by thermogravimetric analysis (TG/DTG) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analysis; the Vickers microhardness (VHN) was measured after 1, 7, 15 and 30days of storage in water. The degree of conversion values for the materials (DC, %) were immediately measured using near-infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR). The surface morphology of the composites was investigated by scanning electron microscopes (SEM) and atomic-force microscopy (AFM) analyses. The sorption and solubility measurements were also performed after 1, 7, 15 and 30days of storage in water. In addition to his, the data were statistically analyzed using one-way analysis of variance, and both the Newman Keuls and Tukey multiple comparison tests. The statistical significance level was established at pfill, resin-based dental composites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

KAUST Repository

Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar; Mai, Paul Martin

2016-01-01

Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

KAUST Repository

Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.

2016-07-13

Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

2014-01-01

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

Misclassification probability as obese or lean in hypercaloric and normocaloric diet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ANDRÉ F NASCIMENTO

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the classification error probabilities, as lean or obese, in hypercaloric diet-induced obesity, which depends on the variable used to characterize animal obesity. In addition, the misclassification probabilities in animáis submitted to normocaloric diet were also evaluated. Male Wistar rats were randomly distributed into two groups: normal diet (ND; n=31; 3,5 Kcal/g and hypercaloric diet (HD; n=31; 4,6 Kcal/g. The ND group received commercial Labina rat feed and HD animáis a cycle of five hypercaloric diets for a 14-week period. The variables analysed were body weight, body composition, body weight to length ratio, Lee Índex, body mass Índex and misclassification probability. A 5% significance level was used. The hypercaloric pellet-diet cycle promoted increase of body weight, carcass fat, body weight to length ratio and Lee Índex. The total misclassification probabilities ranged from 19.21% to 40.91%. In conclusión, the results of this experiment show that misclassification probabilities occur when dietary manipulation is used to promote obesity in animáis. This misjudgement ranges from 19.49% to 40.52% in hypercaloric diet and 18.94% to 41.30% in normocaloric diet.

Efficient Multiphoton Generation in Waveguide Quantum Electrodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

González-Tudela, A.; Paulisch, V.; Kimble, H. J.; Cirac, J. I.

2017-05-01

Engineering quantum states of light is at the basis of many quantum technologies such as quantum cryptography, teleportation, or metrology among others. Though, single photons can be generated in many scenarios, the efficient and reliable generation of complex single-mode multiphoton states is still a long-standing goal in the field, as current methods either suffer from low fidelities or small probabilities. Here we discuss several protocols which harness the strong and long-range atomic interactions induced by waveguide QED to efficiently load excitations in a collection of atoms, which can then be triggered to produce the desired multiphoton state. In order to boost the success probability and fidelity of each excitation process, atoms are used to both generate the excitations in the rest, as well as to herald the successful generation. Furthermore, to overcome the exponential scaling of the probability of success with the number of excitations, we design a protocol to merge excitations that are present in different internal atomic levels with a polynomial scaling.

Reliability analysis of reactor systems by applying probability method; Analiza pouzdanosti reaktorskih sistema primenom metoda verovatnoce

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milivojevic, S [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Boris Kidric, Vinca, Beograd (Serbia and Montenegro)

1974-12-15

Probability method was chosen for analysing the reactor system reliability is considered realistic since it is based on verified experimental data. In fact this is a statistical method. The probability method developed takes into account the probability distribution of permitted levels of relevant parameters and their particular influence on the reliability of the system as a whole. The proposed method is rather general, and was used for problem of thermal safety analysis of reactor system. This analysis enables to analyze basic properties of the system under different operation conditions, expressed in form of probability they show the reliability of the system on the whole as well as reliability of each component.

Probability in physics

CERN Document Server

Hemmo, Meir

2012-01-01

What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

A Microsoft-Excel-based tool for running and critically appraising network meta-analyses--an overview and application of NetMetaXL.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Stephen; Hutton, Brian; Clifford, Tammy; Coyle, Doug; Grima, Daniel; Wells, George; Cameron, Chris

2014-09-29

The use of network meta-analysis has increased dramatically in recent years. WinBUGS, a freely available Bayesian software package, has been the most widely used software package to conduct network meta-analyses. However, the learning curve for WinBUGS can be daunting, especially for new users. Furthermore, critical appraisal of network meta-analyses conducted in WinBUGS can be challenging given its limited data manipulation capabilities and the fact that generation of graphical output from network meta-analyses often relies on different software packages than the analyses themselves. We developed a freely available Microsoft-Excel-based tool called NetMetaXL, programmed in Visual Basic for Applications, which provides an interface for conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis using WinBUGS from within Microsoft Excel. . This tool allows the user to easily prepare and enter data, set model assumptions, and run the network meta-analysis, with results being automatically displayed in an Excel spreadsheet. It also contains macros that use NetMetaXL's interface to generate evidence network diagrams, forest plots, league tables of pairwise comparisons, probability plots (rankograms), and inconsistency plots within Microsoft Excel. All figures generated are publication quality, thereby increasing the efficiency of knowledge transfer and manuscript preparation. We demonstrate the application of NetMetaXL using data from a network meta-analysis published previously which compares combined resynchronization and implantable defibrillator therapy in left ventricular dysfunction. We replicate results from the previous publication while demonstrating result summaries generated by the software. Use of the freely available NetMetaXL successfully demonstrated its ability to make running network meta-analyses more accessible to novice WinBUGS users by allowing analyses to be conducted entirely within Microsoft Excel. NetMetaXL also allows for more efficient and transparent

Image Watermarking Scheme for Specifying False Positive Probability and Bit-pattern Embedding

Science.gov (United States)

Sayama, Kohei; Nakamoto, Masayoshi; Muneyasu, Mitsuji; Ohno, Shuichi

This paper treats a discrete wavelet transform(DWT)-based image watermarking with considering the false positive probability and bit-pattern embedding. We propose an iterative embedding algorithm of watermarking signals which are K sets pseudo-random numbers generated by a secret key. In the detection, K correlations between the watermarked DWT coefficients and watermark signals are computed by using the secret key. L correlations are made available for the judgment of the watermark presence with specified false positive probability, and the other K-L correlations are corresponding to the bit-pattern signal. In the experiment, we show the detection results with specified false positive probability and the bit-pattern recovery, and the comparison of the proposed method against JPEG compression, scaling down and cropping.

Classical evolution and quantum generation in generalized gravity theories including string corrections and tachyons: Unified analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, Jai-chan; Noh, Hyerim

2005-01-01

We present cosmological perturbation theory based on generalized gravity theories including string theory correction terms and a tachyonic complication. The classical evolution as well as the quantum generation processes in these varieties of gravity theories are presented in unified forms. These apply both to the scalar- and tensor-type perturbations. Analyses are made based on the curvature variable in two different gauge conditions often used in the literature in Einstein's gravity; these are the curvature variables in the comoving (or uniform-field) gauge and the zero-shear gauge. Applications to generalized slow-roll inflation and its consequent power spectra are derived in unified forms which include a wide range of inflationary scenarios based on Einstein's gravity and others

Frequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions?

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, D; Buehler, R

1999-02-01

Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and empirical results imply that the errors associated with case-specific reasoning may be reduced when people make frequentistic predictions about a set of cases. In studies of three previously identified cognitive biases, we find that frequency-based predictions are different from-but no better than-case-specific judgments of probability. First, in studies of the "planning fallacy, " we compare the accuracy of aggregate frequency and case-specific probability judgments in predictions of students' real-life projects. When aggregate and single-case predictions are collected from different respondents, there is little difference between the two: Both are overly optimistic and show little predictive validity. However, in within-subject comparisons, the aggregate judgments are significantly more conservative than the single-case predictions, though still optimistically biased. Results from studies of overconfidence in general knowledge and base rate neglect in categorical prediction underline a general conclusion. Frequentistic predictions made for sets of events are no more statistically sophisticated, nor more accurate, than predictions made for individual events using subjective probability. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Main factors for fatigue failure probability of pipes subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Machida, Hideo; Suzuki, Masaaki; Kasahara, Naoto

2015-01-01

It is very important to grasp failure probability and failure mode appropriately to carry out risk reduction measures of nuclear power plants. To clarify the important factors for failure probability and failure mode of pipes subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation, failure probability analyses were performed by changing the values of a stress range, stress ratio, stress components and threshold of stress intensity factor range. The important factors for the failure probability are range, stress ratio (mean stress condition) and threshold of stress intensity factor range. The important factor for the failure mode is a circumferential angle range of fluid thermal fluctuation. When a large fluid thermal fluctuation acts on the entire circumferential surface of the pipe, the probability of pipe breakage increases, calling for measures to prevent such a failure and reduce the risk to the plant. When the circumferential angle subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation is small, the failure mode of piping is leakage and the corrective maintenance might be applicable from the viewpoint of risk to the plant. (author)

Natural gas power generation in Brazil: New window of opportunity?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorini de Oliveira, Ricardo; Moraes Marreco, Juliana de

2006-01-01

This survey analyses the need as well as the attractiveness of private investment in natural gas thermal power generation under the Brazilian new power sector reform. Providing a scenario analysis from 2004 to 2014, this paper focuses on the investor perspective, and concludes that investments in natural gas thermal power plants in Brazil are not feasible, without financial subsidies stimulating investors. The more wary of risk both government and society are, and the more averse to risk the investor is, the higher the probability of higher capacity payment to provide incentives to investors. The alternative would be a lower capacity payment combined with higher thermal power tariffs; meaning that generators would receive much more payment when operating, despite assuming higher risks. Additionally, the improvement in safety supply cost is estimated and a sensibility analysis on the actual variables is performed

Philosophical theories of probability

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2000-01-01

The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

Science.gov (United States)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

The applicability of detailed process for neutron resonance absorption to neutronics analyses in LWR next generation fuels to extend burnup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kameyama, Takanori; Nauchi, Yasushi

2004-01-01

Neutronics analyses with detail processing for neutron resonance absorption in LWR next generation UOX and MOX fuels to extend burnup were performed based on the neutronic transport and burnup calculation. In the detailed processing, ultra-fine energy nuclear library and collision probabilities between neutron and U, Pu nuclides (actinide nuclides) are utilized for two-dimension geometry. In the usual simple processing (narrow resonance approximation), shielding factors and compensation equations for neutron resonance absorption are utilized. The results with detailed and simple processing were compared to clarify where the detailed processing is needed. The two processing caused difference of neutron multiplication factor by 0.5% at the beginning of irradiation, while the difference became smaller as burnup increased and was not significant at high burnup. The nuclide compositions of the fuel rods for main actinide nuclides were little different besides Cm isotopes by the processing, since the neutron absorption rate of 244 Cm became different. The detail processing is needed to evaluate the neutron emission rate in spent fuels. In the fuel assemblies, the distributions of rod power rates were not different within 0.5%, and the peak rates of fuel rod were almost the same by the two processing at the beginning of irradiation when the peak rate is the largest during the irradiation. The simple processing is also satisfied for safety evaluation based on the peak rate of rod power. The difference of local power densities in fuel pellets became larger as burnup increased, since the neutron absorption rate of 238 U in the peripheral region of pellets were significantly different by the two processing. The detail processing is needed to evaluate the fuel behavior at high burnup. (author)

Value added structures and coordination structures of the decentral power generation. An actor-centered and institution-centered analyses by means of selected case examples; Wertschoepfungs- und Koordinationsstrukturen der dezentralen Stromerzeugung. Eine akteur- und institutionenzentrierte Analyse anhand ausgewaehlter Fallbeispiele

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brocke, Tobias

2012-07-01

Against the background of energy policy and climate policy decisions, the decentralized power generation has gained in importance in Germany. Previous research activities on this topic mostly concerned with technical, legal, environmental and economic issues as well as potential analyses for certain forms of power generation. In contrast, the contribution under consideration deals with the organizational structures and governance structures of the decentralized power generation at local and regional level. In particular, it concerns the question to what extent the decentralized power generation results in the formation of localized production connections. In addition, it is about the importance of institutional framework as well as the role of regulatory, political and civil society actors who are affected by the distributed power generation.

Probability for statisticians

CERN Document Server

Shorack, Galen R

2017-01-01

This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

Evaluation of Oconee steam-generator debris. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rigdon, M.A.; Rubright, M.M.; Sarver, L.W.

1981-10-01

Pieces of debris were observed near damaged tubes at the 14th support plate elevation in the Oconee 1-B steam generator. A project was initiated to evaluate the physical and chemical nature of the debris, to identify its source, and to determine its role in tube damage at this elevation. Various laboratory techniques were used to characterize several debris and mill scale samples. Data from these samples were then compared with each other and with literature data. It was concluded that seven of eight debris samples were probably formed in the steam generator. Six of these samples were probably formed by high temperature aqueous corrosion early in the life of the steam generator. The seventh sample was probably formed by the deposition and spalling of magnetite on the Inconel steam generator tubes. None of the debris samples resembled any of the mill scale samples

A brief introduction to probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

2018-02-01

The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

On the prior probabilities for two-stage Bayesian estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohut, P.

1992-01-01

The method of Bayesian inference is reexamined for its applicability and for the required underlying assumptions in obtaining and using prior probability estimates. Two different approaches are suggested to determine the first-stage priors in the two-stage Bayesian analysis which avoid certain assumptions required for other techniques. In the first scheme, the prior is obtained through a true frequency based distribution generated at selected intervals utilizing actual sampling of the failure rate distributions. The population variability distribution is generated as the weighed average of the frequency distributions. The second method is based on a non-parametric Bayesian approach using the Maximum Entropy Principle. Specific features such as integral properties or selected parameters of prior distributions may be obtained with minimal assumptions. It is indicated how various quantiles may also be generated with a least square technique

Chaos optimization algorithms based on chaotic maps with different probability distribution and search speed for global optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Dixiong; Liu, Zhenjun; Zhou, Jilei

2014-04-01

Chaos optimization algorithms (COAs) usually utilize the chaotic map like Logistic map to generate the pseudo-random numbers mapped as the design variables for global optimization. Many existing researches indicated that COA can more easily escape from the local minima than classical stochastic optimization algorithms. This paper reveals the inherent mechanism of high efficiency and superior performance of COA, from a new perspective of both the probability distribution property and search speed of chaotic sequences generated by different chaotic maps. The statistical property and search speed of chaotic sequences are represented by the probability density function (PDF) and the Lyapunov exponent, respectively. Meanwhile, the computational performances of hybrid chaos-BFGS algorithms based on eight one-dimensional chaotic maps with different PDF and Lyapunov exponents are compared, in which BFGS is a quasi-Newton method for local optimization. Moreover, several multimodal benchmark examples illustrate that, the probability distribution property and search speed of chaotic sequences from different chaotic maps significantly affect the global searching capability and optimization efficiency of COA. To achieve the high efficiency of COA, it is recommended to adopt the appropriate chaotic map generating the desired chaotic sequences with uniform or nearly uniform probability distribution and large Lyapunov exponent.

Probability of satellite collision

Science.gov (United States)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Real analysis and probability

CERN Document Server

Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

1972-01-01

Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

Probability and Measure

CERN Document Server

Billingsley, Patrick

2012-01-01

Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

Experimental Probability in Elementary School

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew, Lane

2009-01-01

Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

Reliability Analyses of Groundwater Pollutant Transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dimakis, Panagiotis

1997-12-31

This thesis develops a probabilistic finite element model for the analysis of groundwater pollution problems. Two computer codes were developed, (1) one using finite element technique to solve the two-dimensional steady state equations of groundwater flow and pollution transport, and (2) a first order reliability method code that can do a probabilistic analysis of any given analytical or numerical equation. The two codes were connected into one model, PAGAP (Probability Analysis of Groundwater And Pollution). PAGAP can be used to obtain (1) the probability that the concentration at a given point at a given time will exceed a specified value, (2) the probability that the maximum concentration at a given point will exceed a specified value and (3) the probability that the residence time at a given point will exceed a specified period. PAGAP could be used as a tool for assessment purposes and risk analyses, for instance the assessment of the efficiency of a proposed remediation technique or to study the effects of parameter distribution for a given problem (sensitivity study). The model has been applied to study the greatest self sustained, precipitation controlled aquifer in North Europe, which underlies Oslo`s new major airport. 92 refs., 187 figs., 26 tabs.

Probabilities in physics

CERN Document Server

Hartmann, Stephan

2011-01-01

Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Grimmett, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

Probabilistic analyses of failure in reactor coolant piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holman, G.S.

1984-01-01

LLNL is performing probabilistic reliability analyses of PWR and BWR reactor coolant piping for the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. Specifically, LLNL is estimating the probability of a double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) in the reactor coolant loop piping in PWR plants, and in the main stream, feedwater, and recirculation piping of BWR plants. In estimating the probability of DEGB, LLNL considers two causes of pipe break: pipe fracture due to the growth of cracks at welded joints (direct DEGB), and pipe rupture indirectly caused by the seismically-induced failure of critical supports or equipment (indirect DEGB)

Introduction to probability

CERN Document Server

Freund, John E

1993-01-01

Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

A stochastic model for the probability of malaria extinction by mass drug administration.

Science.gov (United States)

Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Chitnis, Nakul; Pothin, Emilie; Smith, Thomas A

2017-09-18

Mass drug administration (MDA) has been proposed as an intervention to achieve local extinction of malaria. Although its effect on the reproduction number is short lived, extinction may subsequently occur in a small population due to stochastic fluctuations. This paper examines how the probability of stochastic extinction depends on population size, MDA coverage and the reproduction number under control, R c . A simple compartmental model is developed which is used to compute the probability of extinction using probability generating functions. The expected time to extinction in small populations after MDA for various scenarios in this model is calculated analytically. The results indicate that mass drug administration (Firstly, R c must be sustained at R c  95% to have a non-negligible probability of successful elimination. Stochastic fluctuations only significantly affect the probability of extinction in populations of about 1000 individuals or less. The expected time to extinction via stochastic fluctuation is less than 10 years only in populations less than about 150 individuals. Clustering of secondary infections and of MDA distribution both contribute positively to the potential probability of success, indicating that MDA would most effectively be administered at the household level. There are very limited circumstances in which MDA will lead to local malaria elimination with a substantial probability.

Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Dworsky, Lawrence N

2008-01-01

An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

Can Next-Generation Vehicles Sustainably Survive in the Automobile Market? Evidence from Ex-Ante Market Simulation and Segmentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jungwoo Shin

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Introduced autonomous and connected vehicles equipped with emerging technologies are expected to change the automotive market. In this study, using stated preference (SP data collected from choice experiments conducted in Korea with a mixed multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model (MDCEV, we analyzed how the advent of next-generation of vehicles with advanced vehicle technologies would affect consumer vehicle choices and usage patterns. Additionally, ex-ante market simulations and market segmentation analyses were conducted to provide specific management strategies for next-generation vehicles. The results showed that consumer preference structures of conventional and alternative fuel types primarily differed depending on whether they were drivers or non-drivers. Additionally, although the introduction of electric vehicles to the automobile market is expected to negatively affect the choice probability and mileage of other vehicles, it could have a positive influence on the probability of purchasing an existing conventional vehicle if advanced vehicle technologies are available.

Risk Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

Morphometric analyses of hominoid crania, probabilities of conspecificity and an approximation of a biological species constant.

Science.gov (United States)

Thackeray, J F; Dykes, S

2016-02-01

Thackeray has previously explored the possibility of using a morphometric approach to quantify the "amount" of variation within species and to assess probabilities of conspecificity when two fossil specimens are compared, instead of "pigeon-holing" them into discrete species. In an attempt to obtain a statistical (probabilistic) definition of a species, Thackeray has recognized an approximation of a biological species constant (T=-1.61) based on the log-transformed standard error of the coefficient m (log sem) in regression analysis of cranial and other data from pairs of specimens of conspecific extant species, associated with regression equations of the form y=mx+c where m is the slope and c is the intercept, using measurements of any specimen A (x axis), and any specimen B of the same species (y axis). The log-transformed standard error of the co-efficient m (log sem) is a measure of the degree of similarity between pairs of specimens, and in this study shows central tendency around a mean value of -1.61 and standard deviation 0.10 for modern conspecific specimens. In this paper we focus attention on the need to take into account the range of difference in log sem values (Δlog sem or "delta log sem") obtained from comparisons when specimen A (x axis) is compared to B (y axis), and secondly when specimen A (y axis) is compared to B (x axis). Thackeray's approach can be refined to focus on high probabilities of conspecificity for pairs of specimens for which log sem is less than -1.61 and for which Δlog sem is less than 0.03. We appeal for the adoption of a concept here called "sigma taxonomy" (as opposed to "alpha taxonomy"), recognizing that boundaries between species are not always well defined. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Scoping analyses for the safety injection system configuration for Korean next generation reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bae, Kyoo Hwan; Song, Jin Ho; Park, Jong Kyoon

1996-01-01

Scoping analyses for the Safety Injection System (SIS) configuration for Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR) are performed in this study. The KNGR SIS consists of four mechanically separated hydraulic trains. Each hydraulic train consisting of a High Pressure Safety Injection (HPSI) pump and a Safety Injection Tank (SIT) is connected to the Direct Vessel Injection (DVI) nozzle located above the elevation of cold leg and thus injects water into the upper portion of reactor vessel annulus. Also, the KNGR is going to adopt the advanced design feature of passive fluidic device which will be installed in the discharge line of SIT to allow more effective use of borated water during the transient of large break LOCA. To determine the feasible configuration and capacity of SIT and HPSl pump with the elimination of the Low Pressure Safety Injection (LPSI) pump for KNGR, licensing design basis evaluations are performed for the limiting large break LOCA. The study shows that the DVI injection with the fluidic device SlT enhances the SIS performance by allowing more effective use of borated water for an extended period of time during the large break LOCA

Transient stability probability evaluation of power system incorporating with wind farm and SMES

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fang, Jiakun; Miao, Lu; Wen, Jinyu

2013-01-01

Large scale renewable power generation brings great challenges to the power system operation and stabilization. Energy storage is one of the most important technologies to face the challenges. This paper proposes a method for transient stability probability evaluation of power system with wind farm...... and SMES. Firstly, a modified 11-bus test system with both wind farm and SMES has been implemented. The wind farm is represented as a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG). Then a stochastic-based approach to evaluate the probabilistic transient stability index of the power system is presented. Uncertain...... the probability indices. With the proposed method based on Monte-Carlo simulation and bisection method, system stability is "measured". Quantitative relationship of penetration level, SMES coil size and system stability is established. Considering the stability versus coil size to be the production curve...

Estimating reliability of degraded system based on the probability density evolution with multi-parameter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiang Ge

2017-01-01

Full Text Available System degradation was usually caused by multiple-parameter degradation. The assessment result of system reliability by universal generating function was low accurate when compared with the Monte Carlo simulation. And the probability density function of the system output performance cannot be got. So the reliability assessment method based on the probability density evolution with multi-parameter was presented for complexly degraded system. Firstly, the system output function was founded according to the transitive relation between component parameters and the system output performance. Then, the probability density evolution equation based on the probability conservation principle and the system output function was established. Furthermore, probability distribution characteristics of the system output performance was obtained by solving differential equation. Finally, the reliability of the degraded system was estimated. This method did not need to discrete the performance parameters and can establish continuous probability density function of the system output performance with high calculation efficiency and low cost. Numerical example shows that this method is applicable to evaluate the reliability of multi-parameter degraded system.

Evaluation of burst probability for tubes by Weibull distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kao, S.

1975-10-01

The investigations of candidate distributions that best describe the burst pressure failure probability characteristics of nuclear power steam generator tubes has been continued. To date it has been found that the Weibull distribution provides an acceptable fit for the available data from both the statistical and physical viewpoints. The reasons for the acceptability of the Weibull distribution are stated together with the results of tests for the suitability of fit. In exploring the acceptability of the Weibull distribution for the fitting, a graphical method to be called the ''density-gram'' is employed instead of the usual histogram. With this method a more sensible graphical observation on the empirical density may be made for cases where the available data is very limited. Based on these methods estimates of failure pressure are made for the left-tail probabilities

Quantum processes: probability fluxes, transition probabilities in unit time and vacuum vibrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oleinik, V.P.; Arepjev, Ju D.

1989-01-01

Transition probabilities in unit time and probability fluxes are compared in studying the elementary quantum processes -the decay of a bound state under the action of time-varying and constant electric fields. It is shown that the difference between these quantities may be considerable, and so the use of transition probabilities W instead of probability fluxes Π, in calculating the particle fluxes, may lead to serious errors. The quantity W represents the rate of change with time of the population of the energy levels relating partly to the real states and partly to the virtual ones, and it cannot be directly measured in experiment. The vacuum background is shown to be continuously distorted when a perturbation acts on a system. Because of this the viewpoint of an observer on the physical properties of real particles continuously varies with time. This fact is not taken into consideration in the conventional theory of quantum transitions based on using the notion of probability amplitude. As a result, the probability amplitudes lose their physical meaning. All the physical information on quantum dynamics of a system is contained in the mean values of physical quantities. The existence of considerable differences between the quantities W and Π permits one in principle to make a choice of the correct theory of quantum transitions on the basis of experimental data. (author)

Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

2017-09-01

Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

A comparative study of first and all-author co-citation counting, and two different matrix generation approaches applied for author co-citation analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schneider, Jesper Wiborg; Larsen, Birger; Ingwersen, Peter

2009-01-01

XML documents extracted from the IEEE collection. These data allow the construction of ad-hoc citation indexes, which enables us to carry out the hitherto largest all-author co-citation study. Four ACA are made, combining the different units of analyses with the different matrix generation approaches...

Failure probability estimate of type 304 stainless steel piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daugherty, W.L.; Awadalla, N.G.; Sindelar, R.L.; Mehta, H.S.; Ranganath, S.

1989-01-01

The primary source of in-service degradation of the SRS production reactor process water piping is intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC). IGSCC has occurred in a limited number of weld heat affected zones, areas known to be susceptible to IGSCC. A model has been developed to combine crack growth rates, crack size distributions, in-service examination reliability estimates and other considerations to estimate the pipe large-break frequency. This frequency estimates the probability that an IGSCC crack will initiate, escape detection by ultrasonic (UT) examination, and grow to instability prior to extending through-wall and being detected by the sensitive leak detection system. These events are combined as the product of four factors: (1) the probability that a given weld heat affected zone contains IGSCC; (2) the conditional probability, given the presence of IGSCC, that the cracking will escape detection during UT examination; (3) the conditional probability, given a crack escapes detection by UT, that it will not grow through-wall and be detected by leakage; (4) the conditional probability, given a crack is not detected by leakage, that it grows to instability prior to the next UT exam. These four factors estimate the occurrence of several conditions that must coexist in order for a crack to lead to a large break of the process water piping. When evaluated for the SRS production reactors, they produce an extremely low break frequency. The objective of this paper is to present the assumptions, methodology, results and conclusions of a probabilistic evaluation for the direct failure of the primary coolant piping resulting from normal operation and seismic loads. This evaluation was performed to support the ongoing PRA effort and to complement deterministic analyses addressing the credibility of a double-ended guillotine break

Analysis of probability of defects in the disposal canisters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.-E.; Kuusela, P.

2011-06-01

This report presents a probability model for the reliability of the spent nuclear waste final disposal canister. Reliability means here that the welding of the canister lid has no critical defects from the long-term safety point of view. From the reliability point of view, both the reliability of the welding process (that no critical defects will be born) and the non-destructive testing (NDT) process (all critical defects will be detected) are equally important. In the probability model, critical defects in a weld were simplified into a few types. Also the possibility of human errors in the NDT process was taken into account in a simple manner. At this moment there is very little representative data to determine the reliability of welding and also the data on NDT is not well suited for the needs of this study. Therefore calculations presented here are based on expert judgements and on several assumptions that have not been verified yet. The Bayesian probability model shows the importance of the uncertainty in the estimation of the reliability parameters. The effect of uncertainty is that the probability distribution of the number of defective canisters becomes flat for larger numbers of canisters compared to the binomial probability distribution in case of known parameter values. In order to reduce the uncertainty, more information is needed from both the reliability of the welding and NDT processes. It would also be important to analyse the role of human factors in these processes since their role is not reflected in typical test data which is used to estimate 'normal process variation'.The reported model should be seen as a tool to quantify the roles of different methods and procedures in the weld inspection process. (orig.)

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

Third generation nuclear plants

Science.gov (United States)

Barré, Bertrand

2012-05-01

After the Chernobyl accident, a new generation of Light Water Reactors has been designed and is being built. Third generation nuclear plants are equipped with dedicated systems to insure that if the worst accident were to occur, i.e. total core meltdown, no matter how low the probability of such occurrence, radioactive releases in the environment would be minimal. This article describes the EPR, representative of this "Generation III" and a few of its competitors on the world market.

New family of probability distributions with applications to Monte Carlo studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, M.E.; Tietjen, G.L.; Beckman, R.J.

1980-01-01

A new probability distribution is presented that offers considerable potential for providing stochastic inputs to Monte Carlo simulation studies. The distribution includes the exponential power family as a special case. An efficient computational strategy is proposed for random variate generation. An example for testing the hypothesis of unit variance illustrates the advantages of the proposed distribution

Prediction and probability in sciences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

1998-01-01

This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSES OF SPALLATION NEUTRONS GENERATED BY 100 MEV PROTONS AT THE KYOTO UNIVERSITY CRITICAL ASSEMBLY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CHEOL HO PYEON

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Neutron spectrum analyses of spallation neutrons are conducted in the accelerator-driven system (ADS facility at the Kyoto University Critical Assembly (KUCA. High-energy protons (100 MeV obtained from the fixed field alternating gradient accelerator are injected onto a tungsten target, whereby the spallation neutrons are generated. For neutronic characteristics of spallation neutrons, the reaction rates and the continuous energy distribution of spallation neutrons are measured by the foil activation method and by an organic liquid scintillator, respectively. Numerical calculations are executed by MCNPX with JENDL/HE-2007 and ENDF/B-VI libraries to evaluate the reaction rates of activation foils (bismuth and indium set at the target and the continuous energy distribution of spallation neutrons set in front of the target. For the reaction rates by the foil activation method, the C/E values between the experiments and the calculations are found around a relative difference of 10%, except for some reactions. For continuous energy distribution by the organic liquid scintillator, the spallation neutrons are observed up to 45 MeV. From these results, the neutron spectrum information on the spallation neutrons generated at the target are attained successfully in injecting 100 MeV protons onto the tungsten target.

Measurement of probability distributions for internal stresses in dislocated crystals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilkinson, Angus J.; Tarleton, Edmund; Vilalta-Clemente, Arantxa; Collins, David M. [Department of Materials, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PH (United Kingdom); Jiang, Jun; Britton, T. Benjamin [Department of Materials, Imperial College London, Royal School of Mines, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

2014-11-03

Here, we analyse residual stress distributions obtained from various crystal systems using high resolution electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements. Histograms showing stress probability distributions exhibit tails extending to very high stress levels. We demonstrate that these extreme stress values are consistent with the functional form that should be expected for dislocated crystals. Analysis initially developed by Groma and co-workers for X-ray line profile analysis and based on the so-called “restricted second moment of the probability distribution” can be used to estimate the total dislocation density. The generality of the results are illustrated by application to three quite different systems, namely, face centred cubic Cu deformed in uniaxial tension, a body centred cubic steel deformed to larger strain by cold rolling, and hexagonal InAlN layers grown on misfitting sapphire and silicon carbide substrates.

The influence of finite-length flaw effects on PTS analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keeney-Walker, J.; Dickson, T.L.

1993-01-01

Current licensing issues within the nuclear industry dictate a need to investigate the effects of cladding on the extension of small finite-length cracks near the inside surface of a vessel. Because flaws having depths of the order of the combined clad and heat affected zone thickness dominate the frequency distribution of flaws, their initiation probabilities can govern calculated vessel failure probabilities. Current pressurized-thermal-shock (PTS) analysis computer programs recognize the influence of the inner-surface cladding layer in the heat transfer and stress analysis models, but assume the cladding fracture toughness is the same as that for the base material. The programs do not recognize the influence cladding may have in inhibiting crack initiation and propagation of shallow finite-length surface flaws. Limited experimental data and analyses indicate the cladding can inhibit the propagation of certain shallow flaws. This paper describes an analytical study which was carried out to determine (1) the minimum flaw depth for crack initiation under PTS loading for semicircular surface flaws in a clad reactor pressure vessel and (2) the impact, in terms of the conditional probability of vessel failure, of using a semicircular surface flaw as the initial flaw and assuming that the flaw cannot propagate in the cladding. The analytical results indicate that for initiation a much deeper critical crack depth is required for the finite-length flaw than for the infinite-length flaw, except for the least severe transient. The minimum flaw depths required for crack initiation from the finite-length flaw analyses were incorporated into a modified version of the OCA-P code. The modified code was applied to the analysis of selected PTS transients, and the results produced a substantial decrease in the conditional probability of failure. This initial study indicates a significant effect on probabilistic fracture analyses by incorporating finite-length flaw results

Probable maximum flood on the Ha Ha River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damov, D.; Masse, B.

1997-01-01

Results of a probable maximum flood (PMF) study conducted for various locations along the Ha Ha river, a tributary of the Saguenay River, were discussed. The study was undertaken for use in the design and construction of new hydraulic structures for water supply for a pulp and paper facility, following the Saguenay Flood in July 1996. Many different flood scenarios were considered, including combinations of snow-melt with rainfall. Using computer simulations, it was shown that the largest flood flows were generated by summer-fall PMF. 5 refs., 12 figs

Probability of success for phase III after exploratory biomarker analysis in phase II.

Science.gov (United States)

Götte, Heiko; Kirchner, Marietta; Sailer, Martin Oliver

2017-05-01

The probability of success or average power describes the potential of a future trial by weighting the power with a probability distribution of the treatment effect. The treatment effect estimate from a previous trial can be used to define such a distribution. During the development of targeted therapies, it is common practice to look for predictive biomarkers. The consequence is that the trial population for phase III is often selected on the basis of the most extreme result from phase II biomarker subgroup analyses. In such a case, there is a tendency to overestimate the treatment effect. We investigate whether the overestimation of the treatment effect estimate from phase II is transformed into a positive bias for the probability of success for phase III. We simulate a phase II/III development program for targeted therapies. This simulation allows to investigate selection probabilities and allows to compare the estimated with the true probability of success. We consider the estimated probability of success with and without subgroup selection. Depending on the true treatment effects, there is a negative bias without selection because of the weighting by the phase II distribution. In comparison, selection increases the estimated probability of success. Thus, selection does not lead to a bias in probability of success if underestimation due to the phase II distribution and overestimation due to selection cancel each other out. We recommend to perform similar simulations in practice to get the necessary information about the risk and chances associated with such subgroup selection designs. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The quantum probability calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jauch, J.M.

1976-01-01

The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

Probabilistic analysis of Millstone Unit 3 ultimate containment failure probability given high pressure: Chapter 14

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bickel, J.H.

1983-01-01

The quantification of the containment event trees in the Millstone Unit 3 Probabilistic Safety Study utilizes a conditional probability of failure given high pressure which is based on a new approach. The generation of this conditional probability was based on a weakest link failure mode model which considered contributions from a number of overlapping failure modes. This overlap effect was due to a number of failure modes whose mean failure pressures were clustered within a 5 psi range and which had uncertainties due to variances in material strengths and analytical uncertainties which were between 9 and 15 psi. Based on a review of possible probability laws to describe the failure probability of individual structural failure modes, it was determined that a Weibull probability law most adequately described the randomness in the physical process of interest. The resultant conditional probability of failure is found to have a median failure pressure of 132.4 psia. The corresponding 5-95 percentile values are 112 psia and 146.7 psia respectively. The skewed nature of the conditional probability of failure vs. pressure results in a lower overall containment failure probability for an appreciable number of the severe accident sequences of interest, but also probabilities which are more rigorously traceable from first principles

The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krupnick, A.J.; Markandya, A.; Nickell, E.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report

The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krupnick, A J; Markandya, A; Nickell, E

1994-07-01

This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report.

Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-03-01

This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC's Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs

Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

Science.gov (United States)

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

2018-03-01

Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

Intergenerational Transmission and the School-to-work Transition for 2nd Generation Immigrants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Rosholm, Michael; Smith, Nina

2001-01-01

We analyse the extent of intergenerational transmission through parental capital, ethnic capital and neighbourhood effects on several aspects of the school-to-work transition of 2nd generation immigrants and young ethnic Danes. The main findings are that parental capital has strong positive effects...... on the probability of completing a qualifying education and on the entry into the labour market, but it has a much smaller impact on the duration of the first employment spell and on the wage level. Growing up in neighbourhoods with a high concentration of immigrants is associated with negative labour market...

Linear positivity and virtual probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartle, James B.

2004-01-01

We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

The pleasures of probability

CERN Document Server

Isaac, Richard

1995-01-01

The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

Constructing inverse probability weights for continuous exposures: a comparison of methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Naimi, Ashley I; Moodie, Erica E M; Auger, Nathalie; Kaufman, Jay S

2014-03-01

Inverse probability-weighted marginal structural models with binary exposures are common in epidemiology. Constructing inverse probability weights for a continuous exposure can be complicated by the presence of outliers, and the need to identify a parametric form for the exposure and account for nonconstant exposure variance. We explored the performance of various methods to construct inverse probability weights for continuous exposures using Monte Carlo simulation. We generated two continuous exposures and binary outcomes using data sampled from a large empirical cohort. The first exposure followed a normal distribution with homoscedastic variance. The second exposure followed a contaminated Poisson distribution, with heteroscedastic variance equal to the conditional mean. We assessed six methods to construct inverse probability weights using: a normal distribution, a normal distribution with heteroscedastic variance, a truncated normal distribution with heteroscedastic variance, a gamma distribution, a t distribution (1, 3, and 5 degrees of freedom), and a quantile binning approach (based on 10, 15, and 20 exposure categories). We estimated the marginal odds ratio for a single-unit increase in each simulated exposure in a regression model weighted by the inverse probability weights constructed using each approach, and then computed the bias and mean squared error for each method. For the homoscedastic exposure, the standard normal, gamma, and quantile binning approaches performed best. For the heteroscedastic exposure, the quantile binning, gamma, and heteroscedastic normal approaches performed best. Our results suggest that the quantile binning approach is a simple and versatile way to construct inverse probability weights for continuous exposures.

Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandy, W. T. Jr.

2009-01-01

In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki

2011-03-01

A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

The perception of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

2014-01-01

We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

On the average capacity and bit error probability of wireless communication systems

KAUST Repository

Yilmaz, Ferkan

2011-12-01

Analysis of the average binary error probabilities and average capacity of wireless communications systems over generalized fading channels have been considered separately in the past. This paper introduces a novel moment generating function-based unified expression for both average binary error probabilities and average capacity of single and multiple link communication with maximal ratio combining. It is a matter to note that the generic unified expression offered in this paper can be easily calculated and that is applicable to a wide variety of fading scenarios, and the mathematical formalism is illustrated with the generalized Gamma fading distribution in order to validate the correctness of our newly derived results. © 2011 IEEE.

Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael F Sloma

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package.

Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs.

Science.gov (United States)

Sloma, Michael F; Mathews, David H

2017-11-01

Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package.

Probability of pipe fracture in the primary coolant loop of a PWR plant. Volume 3: nonseismic stress analysis. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, A.L.; Curtis, D.J.; Rybicki, E.F.; Lu, S.C.

1981-08-01

This volume describes the analyses used to evaluate stresses due to loads other than seismic excitations in the primary coolant loop piping of a selected four-loop pressurized water reactor nuclear power station. The results of the analyses are used as input to a simulation procedure for predicting the probability of pipe fracture in the primary coolant system. Sources of stresses considered in the analyses are pressure, dead weight, thermal expansion, thermal gradients through the pipe wall, residual welding, and mechanical vibrations. Pressure and thermal transients arising from plant operations are best estimates and are based on actual plant operation records supplemented by specified plant design conditions. Stresses due to dead weight and thermal expansion are computed from a three-dimensional finite element model that uses a combination of pipe, truss, and beam elements to represent the reactor coolant loop piping, reactor pressure vessel, reactor coolant pumps, steam generators, and the pressurizer. Stresses due to pressure and thermal gradients are obtained by closed-form solutions. Calculations of residual stresses account for the actual heat impact, welding speed, weld preparation geometry, and pre- and post-heat treatments. Vibrational stresses due to pump operation are estimated by a dynamic analysis using existing measurements of pump vibrations

Introduction to probability with R

CERN Document Server

Baclawski, Kenneth

2008-01-01

FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

Applied probability and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Sumita, Ushio

1999-01-01

Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040.

Science.gov (United States)

Odén, A; McCloskey, E V; Kanis, J A; Harvey, N C; Johansson, H

2015-09-01

The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040. The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040. A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country. Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years. We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.

Generic Degraded Configuration Probability Analysis for the Codisposal Waste Package

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

S.F.A. Deng; M. Saglam; L.J. Gratton

2001-01-01

In accordance with the technical work plan, ''Technical Work Plan For: Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel Work Packages'' (CRWMS M and O 2000c), this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is developed for the purpose of screening out degraded configurations for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) types. It performs the degraded configuration parameter and probability evaluations of the overall methodology specified in the ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2000, Section 3) to qualifying configurations. Degradation analyses are performed to assess realizable parameter ranges and physical regimes for configurations. Probability calculations are then performed for configurations characterized by k eff in excess of the Critical Limit (CL). The scope of this document is to develop a generic set of screening criteria or models to screen out degraded configurations having potential for exceeding a criticality limit. The developed screening criteria include arguments based on physical/chemical processes and probability calculations and apply to DOE SNF types when codisposed with the high-level waste (HLW) glass inside a waste package. The degradation takes place inside the waste package and is long after repository licensing has expired. The emphasis of this AMR is on degraded configuration screening and the probability analysis is one of the approaches used for screening. The intended use of the model is to apply the developed screening criteria to each DOE SNF type following the completion of the degraded mode criticality analysis internal to the waste package

WIPP panel simulations with gas generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeVries, K.L.; Callahan, G.D.; Munson, D.E.

1996-01-01

An important issue in nuclear waste repository performance is the potential for fracture development resulting in pathways for release of radionuclides beyond the confines of the repository. A series of demonstration calculations using structural finite element analyses are presented here to examine the effect of internal gas generation on the response of a sealed repository. From the calculated stress fields, the most probable location for a fracture to develop was determined to be within the pillars interior to the repository for the range of parameter values considered. If a fracture interconnects the rooms and panels of the repository, fracture opening produces significant additional void volume to limit the excess gas pressure to less than 1.0 MPa above the overburden pressure. Consequently, the potential for additional fracture development into the barrier pillar is greatly reduced, which provides further confidence that the waste will be contained within the repository

Implementation of the probability table method in a continuous-energy Monte Carlo code system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sutton, T.M.; Brown, F.B.

1998-10-01

RACER is a particle-transport Monte Carlo code that utilizes a continuous-energy treatment for neutrons and neutron cross section data. Until recently, neutron cross sections in the unresolved resonance range (URR) have been treated in RACER using smooth, dilute-average representations. This paper describes how RACER has been modified to use probability tables to treat cross sections in the URR, and the computer codes that have been developed to compute the tables from the unresolved resonance parameters contained in ENDF/B data files. A companion paper presents results of Monte Carlo calculations that demonstrate the effect of the use of probability tables versus the use of dilute-average cross sections for the URR. The next section provides a brief review of the probability table method as implemented in the RACER system. The production of the probability tables for use by RACER takes place in two steps. The first step is the generation of probability tables from the nuclear parameters contained in the ENDF/B data files. This step, and the code written to perform it, are described in Section 3. The tables produced are at energy points determined by the ENDF/B parameters and/or accuracy considerations. The tables actually used in the RACER calculations are obtained in the second step from those produced in the first. These tables are generated at energy points specific to the RACER calculation. Section 4 describes this step and the code written to implement it, as well as modifications made to RACER to enable it to use the tables. Finally, some results and conclusions are presented in Section 5

Improving complex kinship analyses with additional STR loci.

Science.gov (United States)

Carboni, Ilaria; Iozzi, Sara; Nutini, Anna Lucia; Torricelli, Francesca; Ricci, Ugo

2014-11-01

In a standard paternity testing, mother, child, and alleged father are analyzed with STR markers using commercially available kits. Since Italian civil legislation does not have thresholds to confirm a paternity, paternity is practically proven when likelihood ratio increases prior probability of paternity to posterior, accepted by court as sufficient. However, in some cases the number of markers included in a commercial kit may be insufficient to conclusively prove or disprove a relationship between individuals, especially when complex family scenarios are suspected or indirect analyses are required. Additional genetic information can increase the values of the likelihood ratio regarding the detection of true parental relationships in a pedigree, while reducing the chances of false attributions (e.g. false paternities). In these cases the introduction of a 26Plex amplification system allows to examine 23-26 additional markers depending on the commercial kit used, thus increasing the statistical power of the kinship analysis. The PCR conditions were optimized for a multiplex amplification system and a new generation CE instrument. In order to demonstrate the utility of additional STRs markers, four complex kinship cases are presented. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Age, Loss Minimization, and the Role of Probability for Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Best, Ryan; Freund, Alexandra M

2018-04-05

Older adults are stereotypically considered to be risk averse compared to younger age groups, although meta-analyses on age and the influence of gain/loss framing on risky choices have not found empirical evidence for age differences in risk-taking. The current study extends the investigation of age differences in risk preference by including analyses on the effect of the probability of a risky option on choices in gain versus loss situations. Participants (n = 130 adults aged 19-80 years) chose between a certain option and a risky option of varying probability in gain- and loss-framed gambles with actual monetary outcomes. Only younger adults displayed an overall framing effect. Younger and older adults responded differently to probability fluctuations depending on the framing condition. Older adults were more likely to choose the risky option as the likelihood of avoiding a larger loss increased and as the likelihood of a larger gain decreased. Younger adults responded with the opposite pattern: they were more likely to choose the risky option as the likelihood of a larger gain increased and as the likelihood of avoiding a (slightly) larger loss decreased. Results suggest that older adults are more willing to select a risky option when it increases the likelihood that larger losses be avoided, whereas younger adults are more willing to select a risky option when it allows for slightly larger gains. This finding supports expectations based on theoretical accounts of goal orientation shifting away from securing gains in younger adulthood towards maintenance and avoiding losses in older adulthood. Findings are also discussed in respect to the affective enhancement perspective and socioemotional selectivity theory. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Collision Probability Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1998-01-01

It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

Irreversibility and conditional probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuart, C.I.J.M.

1989-01-01

The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

Data-driven probability concentration and sampling on manifold

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soize, C., E-mail: christian.soize@univ-paris-est.fr [Université Paris-Est, Laboratoire Modélisation et Simulation Multi-Echelle, MSME UMR 8208 CNRS, 5 bd Descartes, 77454 Marne-La-Vallée Cedex 2 (France); Ghanem, R., E-mail: ghanem@usc.edu [University of Southern California, 210 KAP Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90089 (United States)

2016-09-15

A new methodology is proposed for generating realizations of a random vector with values in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space that are statistically consistent with a dataset of observations of this vector. The probability distribution of this random vector, while a priori not known, is presumed to be concentrated on an unknown subset of the Euclidean space. A random matrix is introduced whose columns are independent copies of the random vector and for which the number of columns is the number of data points in the dataset. The approach is based on the use of (i) the multidimensional kernel-density estimation method for estimating the probability distribution of the random matrix, (ii) a MCMC method for generating realizations for the random matrix, (iii) the diffusion-maps approach for discovering and characterizing the geometry and the structure of the dataset, and (iv) a reduced-order representation of the random matrix, which is constructed using the diffusion-maps vectors associated with the first eigenvalues of the transition matrix relative to the given dataset. The convergence aspects of the proposed methodology are analyzed and a numerical validation is explored through three applications of increasing complexity. The proposed method is found to be robust to noise levels and data complexity as well as to the intrinsic dimension of data and the size of experimental datasets. Both the methodology and the underlying mathematical framework presented in this paper contribute new capabilities and perspectives at the interface of uncertainty quantification, statistical data analysis, stochastic modeling and associated statistical inverse problems.

Introduction to probability with Mathematica

CERN Document Server

Hastings, Kevin J

2009-01-01

Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Human Inferences about Sequences: A Minimal Transition Probability Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florent Meyniel

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The brain constantly infers the causes of the inputs it receives and uses these inferences to generate statistical expectations about future observations. Experimental evidence for these expectations and their violations include explicit reports, sequential effects on reaction times, and mismatch or surprise signals recorded in electrophysiology and functional MRI. Here, we explore the hypothesis that the brain acts as a near-optimal inference device that constantly attempts to infer the time-varying matrix of transition probabilities between the stimuli it receives, even when those stimuli are in fact fully unpredictable. This parsimonious Bayesian model, with a single free parameter, accounts for a broad range of findings on surprise signals, sequential effects and the perception of randomness. Notably, it explains the pervasive asymmetry between repetitions and alternations encountered in those studies. Our analysis suggests that a neural machinery for inferring transition probabilities lies at the core of human sequence knowledge.

Evaluations of Structural Failure Probabilities and Candidate Inservice Inspection Programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Simonen, Fredric A.

2009-05-01

The work described in this report applies probabilistic structural mechanics models to predict the reliability of nuclear pressure boundary components. These same models are then applied to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative programs for inservice inspection to reduce these failure probabilities. Results of the calculations support the development and implementation of risk-informed inservice inspection of piping and vessels. Studies have specifically addressed the potential benefits of ultrasonic inspections to reduce failure probabilities associated with fatigue crack growth and stress-corrosion cracking. Parametric calculations were performed with the computer code pc-PRAISE to generate an extensive set of plots to cover a wide range of pipe wall thicknesses, cyclic operating stresses, and inspection strategies. The studies have also addressed critical inputs to fracture mechanics calculations such as the parameters that characterize the number and sizes of fabrication flaws in piping welds. Other calculations quantify uncertainties associated with the inputs calculations, the uncertainties in the fracture mechanics models, and the uncertainties in the resulting calculated failure probabilities. A final set of calculations address the effects of flaw sizing errors on the effectiveness of inservice inspection programs.

Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bryan eCort

2013-10-01

Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

Exact capture probability analysis of GSC receivers over i.n.d. Rayleigh fading channels

KAUST Repository

Nam, Sungsik; Yang, Hongchuan; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim; Kim, Dongin

2013-01-01

variates. With this motivation in mind, we first provide in this paper some new order statistics results in terms of both moment generating function (MGF) and probability density function (PDF) expressions under an i.n.d. assumption and then derive a new

Multi-Objective Sensitivity Analyses for Power Generation Mix: Malaysia Case Study

OpenAIRE

Siti Mariam Mohd Shokri; Nofri Yenita Dahlan; Hasmaini Mohamad

2017-01-01

This paper presents an optimization framework to determine long-term optimal generation mix for Malaysia Power Sector using Dynamic Programming (DP) technique. Several new candidate units with a pre-defined MW capacity were included in the model for generation expansion planning from coal, natural gas, hydro and renewable energy (RE). Four objective cases were considered, 1) economic cost, 2) environmental, 3) reliability and 4) multi-objectives that combining the three cases. Results show th...

Reliability assessment and probability based design of reinforced concrete containments and shear walls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Ellingwood, B.; Shinozuka, M.

1986-03-01

This report summarizes work completed under the program entitled, ''Probability-Based Load Combinations for Design of Category I Structures.'' Under this program, the probabilistic models for various static and dynamic loads were formulated. The randomness and uncertainties in material strengths and structural resistance were established. Several limit states of concrete containments and shear walls were identified and analytically formulated. Furthermore, the reliability analysis methods for estimating limit state probabilities were established. These reliability analysis methods can be used to evaluate the safety levels of nuclear structures under various combinations of static and dynamic loads. They can also be used to generate analytically the fragility data for PRA studies. In addition to the development of reliability analysis methods, probability-based design criteria for concrete containments and shear wall structures have also been developed. The proposed design criteria are in the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) format. The load and resistance factors are determined for several limit states and target limit state probabilities. Thus, the proposed design criteria are risk-consistent and have a well-established rationale. 73 refs., 18 figs., 16 tabs

Conceptualizing Media Generations: the Print-, Online- and Individualized Generations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Westlund, Oscar; A Färdigh, Mathias

2012-01-01

During the 1990s news publishers established an online presence and in the 2000s they developed cross-media news work. This has resulted in changing news accessing habits, with varied magnitude among generations. This article aims to construct theoretically sound news media generations, through...... statistical analysis of data from a nationally representative scientific omnibus survey conducted in 2010. Firstly the article presents a descriptive and explanatory analysis of how eight generational cohorts utilize news in print and/or online and/or mobile. Secondly these findings are used for merging...... highest of online only news accessing (Pearson’s r = .135). The heterogeneous news usage patterns exhibited by the individualized generation (1980s-1990s) were accommodated for by two cohorts. The online cohort shows high probability for online-only news usage (49%) and a positive correlation (Pearson’s r...

Random number generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coveyou, R.R.

1974-01-01

The subject of random number generation is currently controversial. Differing opinions on this subject seem to stem from implicit or explicit differences in philosophy; in particular, from differing ideas concerning the role of probability in the real world of physical processes, electronic computers, and Monte Carlo calculations. An attempt is made here to reconcile these views. The role of stochastic ideas in mathematical models is discussed. In illustration of these ideas, a mathematical model of the use of random number generators in Monte Carlo calculations is constructed. This model is used to set up criteria for the comparison and evaluation of random number generators. (U.S.)

A first course in probability

CERN Document Server

Ross, Sheldon

2014-01-01

A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

Estimating Subjective Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

2014-01-01

either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

Probability and Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

1987-01-01

This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

Linking probabilities of off-lattice self-avoiding polygons and the effects of excluded volume

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirayama, Naomi; Deguchi, Tetsuo; Tsurusaki, Kyoichi

2009-01-01

We evaluate numerically the probability of linking, i.e. the probability of a given pair of self-avoiding polygons (SAPs) being entangled and forming a nontrivial link type L. In the simulation we generate pairs of SAPs of N spherical segments of radius r d such that they have no overlaps among the segments and each of the SAPs has the trivial knot type. We evaluate the probability of a self-avoiding pair of SAPs forming a given link type L for various link types with fixed distance R between the centers of mass of the two SAPs. We define normalized distance r by r=R/R g,0 1 where R g,0 1 denotes the square root of the mean square radius of gyration of SAP of the trivial knot 0 1 . We introduce formulae expressing the linking probability as a function of normalized distance r, which gives good fitting curves with respect to χ 2 values. We also investigate the dependence of linking probabilities on the excluded-volume parameter r d and the number of segments, N. Quite interestingly, the graph of linking probability versus normalized distance r shows no N-dependence at a particular value of the excluded volume parameter, r d = 0.2

Application of pathways analyses for site performance prediction for the Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant and Oak Ridge Central Waste Disposal Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.

1984-01-01

The suitability of the Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant and the Oak Ridge Central Waste Disposal Facility for shallow-land burial of low-level radioactive waste is evaluated using pathways analyses. The analyses rely on conservative scenarios to describe the generation and migration of contamination and the potential human exposure to the waste. Conceptual and numerical models are developed using data from comprehensive laboratory and field investigations and are used to simulate the long-term transport of contamination to man. Conservatism is built into the analyses when assumptions concerning future events have to be made or when uncertainties concerning site or waste characteristics exist. Maximum potential doses to man are calculated and compared to the appropriate standards. The sites are found to provide adequate buffer to persons outside the DOE reservations. Conclusions concerning site capacity and site acceptability are drawn. In reaching these conclusions, some consideration is given to the uncertainties and conservatisms involved in the analyses. Analytical methods to quantitatively assess the probability of future events to occur and the sensitivity of the results to data uncertainty may prove useful in relaxing some of the conservatism built into the analyses. The applicability of such methods to pathways analyses is briefly discussed. 18 refs., 9 figs

Results of Analyses of the Next Generation Solvent for Parsons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peters, T.; Washington, A.; Fink, S.

2012-01-01

Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) prepared a nominal 150 gallon batch of Next Generation Solvent (NGS) for Parsons. This material was then analyzed and tested for cesium mass transfer efficiency. The bulk of the results indicate that the solvent is qualified as acceptable for use in the upcoming pilot-scale testing at Parsons Technology Center. This report describes the analysis and testing of a batch of Next Generation Solvent (NGS) prepared in support of pilot-scale testing in the Parsons Technology Center. A total of ∼150 gallons of NGS solvent was prepared in late November of 2011. Details for the work are contained in a controlled laboratory notebook. Analysis of the Parsons NGS solvent indicates that the material is acceptable for use. SRNL is continuing to improve the analytical method for the guanidine.

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998-2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schroeder, John Alton

2015-01-01

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES) data from 1998 through 2014 and (2) maintenance unavailability (UA) performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2014. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: sub-component, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. Six trends with varying degrees of statistical significance were identified in the data.

Market-implied risk-neutral probabilities, actual probabilities, credit risk and news

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shashidhar Murthy

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Motivated by the credit crisis, this paper investigates links between risk-neutral probabilities of default implied by markets (e.g. from yield spreads and their actual counterparts (e.g. from ratings. It discusses differences between the two and clarifies underlying economic intuition using simple representations of credit risk pricing. Observed large differences across bonds in the ratio of the two probabilities are shown to imply that apparently safer securities can be more sensitive to news.

Failures probability calculation of the energy supply of the Angra-1 reactor rods assembly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borba, P.R.

1978-01-01

This work analyses the electric power system of the Angra I PWR plant. It is demonstrated that this system is closely coupled with the safety engineering features, which are the equipments provided to prevent, limit, or mitigate the release of radioactive material and to permit the safe reactor shutdown. Event trees are used to analyse the operation of those systems which can lead to the release of radioactivity following a specified initial event. The fault trees technique is used to calculate the failure probability of the on-site electric power system [pt

Generic Degraded Congiguration Probability Analysis for DOE Codisposal Waste Package

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

S.F.A. Deng; M. Saglam; L.J. Gratton

2001-05-23

In accordance with the technical work plan, ''Technical Work Plan For: Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel Work Packages'' (CRWMS M&O 2000c), this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is developed for the purpose of screening out degraded configurations for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) types. It performs the degraded configuration parameter and probability evaluations of the overall methodology specified in the ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2000, Section 3) to qualifying configurations. Degradation analyses are performed to assess realizable parameter ranges and physical regimes for configurations. Probability calculations are then performed for configurations characterized by k{sub eff} in excess of the Critical Limit (CL). The scope of this document is to develop a generic set of screening criteria or models to screen out degraded configurations having potential for exceeding a criticality limit. The developed screening criteria include arguments based on physical/chemical processes and probability calculations and apply to DOE SNF types when codisposed with the high-level waste (HLW) glass inside a waste package. The degradation takes place inside the waste package and is long after repository licensing has expired. The emphasis of this AMR is on degraded configuration screening and the probability analysis is one of the approaches used for screening. The intended use of the model is to apply the developed screening criteria to each DOE SNF type following the completion of the degraded mode criticality analysis internal to the waste package.

Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Druker

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

An expert system for steam generator maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Remond, A.

1988-01-01

The tube bundles in PWR steam generators are, by far, the major source of problems whether they are due to primary and secondary side corrosion mechanisms or to tube vibration-induced wear at tube support locations. Because of differences in SG operating, materials, and fabrication processes, the damage may differ from steam generator to steam generator. MPGV, an expert system for steam generator maintenance uses all steam generator data containing data on materials, fabrication processes, inservice inspection, and water chemistry. It has access to operational data for individual steam generators and contains models of possible degradation mechanisms. The objectives of the system are: · Diagnosing the most probable degradation mechanism or mechanisms by reviewing the entire steam generator history. · Identifying the tubes most exposed to future damage and evaluating the urgency of repair by simulating the probable development of the problem in time. · Establishing the appropriate preventive actions such as repair, inspection or other measures and establishing an action schedule. The system is intended for utilities either for individual plants before each inspection outage or any time an incident occurs or for a set of plants through a central MPGV center. (author)

A probability space for quantum models

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Integrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data: Natural gas pipeline case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dundulis, Gintautas; Žutautaitė, Inga; Janulionis, Remigijus; Ušpuras, Eugenijus; Rimkevičius, Sigitas; Eid, Mohamed

2016-01-01

In this paper, the authors present an approach as an overall framework for the estimation of the failure probability of pipelines based on: the results of the deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis (taking into account loads, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, crack size, and defected zone thickness), the corrosion rate, the number of defects and failure data (involved into the model via application of Bayesian method). The proposed approach is applied to estimate the failure probability of a selected part of the Lithuanian natural gas transmission network. The presented approach for the estimation of integrated failure probability is a combination of several different analyses allowing us to obtain: the critical crack's length and depth, the failure probability of the defected zone thickness, dependency of the failure probability on the age of the natural gas transmission pipeline. A model's uncertainty analysis and uncertainty propagation analysis are performed, as well. - Highlights: • Degradation mechanisms of natural gas transmission pipelines. • Fracture mechanic analysis of the pipe with crack. • Stress evaluation of the pipe with critical crack. • Deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis of gas pipeline. • Integrated estimation of pipeline failure probability by Bayesian method.

Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Varacca, Daniele

Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

An analytical calculation of neighbourhood order probabilities for high dimensional Poissonian processes and mean field models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tercariol, Cesar Augusto Sangaletti; Kiipper, Felipe de Moura; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

2007-01-01

Consider that the coordinates of N points are randomly generated along the edges of a d-dimensional hypercube (random point problem). The probability P (d,N) m,n that an arbitrary point is the mth nearest neighbour to its own nth nearest neighbour (Cox probabilities) plays an important role in spatial statistics. Also, it has been useful in the description of physical processes in disordered media. Here we propose a simpler derivation of Cox probabilities, where we stress the role played by the system dimensionality d. In the limit d → ∞, the distances between pair of points become independent (random link model) and closed analytical forms for the neighbourhood probabilities are obtained both for the thermodynamic limit and finite-size system. Breaking the distance symmetry constraint drives us to the random map model, for which the Cox probabilities are obtained for two cases: whether a point is its own nearest neighbour or not

Ignition Probability

Data.gov (United States)

Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

Evaluation of sampling plans for in-service inspection of steam generator tubes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurtz, R.J.; Heasler, P.G.; Baird, D.B.

1994-02-01

This report summarizes the results of three previous studies to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of sampling plans for steam generator tube inspections. An analytical evaluation and Monte Carlo simulation techniques were the methods used to evaluate sampling plan performance. To test the performance of candidate sampling plans under a variety of conditions, ranges of inspection system reliability were considered along with different distributions of tube degradation. Results from the eddy current reliability studies performed with the retired-from-service Surry 2A steam generator were utilized to guide the selection of appropriate probability of detection and flaw sizing models for use in the analysis. Different distributions of tube degradation were selected to span the range of conditions that might exist in operating steam generators. The principal means of evaluating sampling performance was to determine the effectiveness of the sampling plan for detecting and plugging defective tubes. A summary of key results from the eddy current reliability studies is presented. The analytical and Monte Carlo simulation analyses are discussed along with a synopsis of key results and conclusions

Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1988-01-01

Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

Probabilistic methodology for assessing steam generator tube inspection - Phase II: CANTIA - a probabilistic method for assessing steam generator tube inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, J.E.; Gorman, J.A.; Turner, A.P.L.

1997-03-01

The objectives of this project were to develop a computer-based method for probabilistic assessment of inspection strategies for steam generator tubes, and to document the source code and to provide a user's manual for it. The program CANTIA was created to fulfill this objective, and the documentation and verification of the code is provided in this volume. The user's manual for CANTIA is provided as a separate report. CANTIA uses Monte Carlo techniques to determine approximate probabilities of steam generator tube failures under accident conditions and primary-to-secondary leak rates under normal and accident conditions at future points in time. The program also determines approximate future flaw distributions and non-destructive examination results from the input data. The probabilities of failure and leak rates and the future flaw distributions can be influenced by performing inspections of the steam generator tubes at some future points in time, and removing defective tubes from the population. The effect of different inspection and maintenance strategies can therefore be determined as a direct effect on the probability of tube failure and primary-to-secondary leak rate

On a Functional Equation for the Generating Function of the Logarithmic Series Distribution

OpenAIRE

Panaretos, John

1987-01-01

This note deals with finding the solution of a functional equation, where the function involved has the additional property of being a probability generating function. It turns out that the unique solution of this particular functional equation is the probability generating function of the logarithmic series distribution

Measurement of the Mis-identification Probability of τ Leptons from Hadronic Jets and from Electrons

CERN Document Server

The ATLAS collaboration

2011-01-01

Measurements of the mis-identification probability of QCD jets and electrons as hadronically decaying τ leptons using tag-and-probe methods are described. The analyses are based on 35pb−1 of proton-proton collision data, taken by the ATLAS experiment at a center-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV. The mis-identification probabilities range between 10% and 0.1% for QCD jets, and about (1 − 2)% for electrons. They depend on the identification algorithm chosen, the pT and the number of prongs of the τ candidate, and on the amount of pile up present in the event.

Optimization of radiation therapy, III: a method of assessing complication probabilities from dose-volume histograms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lyman, J.T.; Wolbarst, A.B.

1987-01-01

To predict the likelihood of success of a therapeutic strategy, one must be able to assess the effects of the treatment upon both diseased and healthy tissues. This paper proposes a method for determining the probability that a healthy organ that receives a non-uniform distribution of X-irradiation, heat, chemotherapy, or other agent will escape complications. Starting with any given dose distribution, a dose-cumulative-volume histogram for the organ is generated. This is then reduced by an interpolation scheme (involving the volume-weighting of complication probabilities) to a slightly different histogram that corresponds to the same overall likelihood of complications, but which contains one less step. The procedure is repeated, one step at a time, until there remains a final, single-step histogram, for which the complication probability can be determined. The formalism makes use of a complication response function C(D, V) which, for the given treatment schedule, represents the probability of complications arising when the fraction V of the organ receives dose D and the rest of the organ gets none. Although the data required to generate this function are sparse at present, it should be possible to obtain the necessary information from in vivo and clinical studies. Volume effects are taken explicitly into account in two ways: the precise shape of the patient's histogram is employed in the calculation, and the complication response function is a function of the volume

Invariant probabilities of transition functions

CERN Document Server

Zaharopol, Radu

2014-01-01

The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

Post-facta Analyses of Fukushima Accident and Lessons Learned

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tanabe, Fumiya [Sociotechnical Systems Safety Research Institute, Ichige (Japan)

2014-08-15

Independent analyses have been performed of the core melt behavior of the Unit 1, Unit 2 and Unit 3 reactors of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on 11-15 March 2011. The analyses are based on a phenomenological methodology with measured data investigation and a simple physical model calculation. Estimated are time variation of core water level, core material temperature and hydrogen generation rate. The analyses have revealed characteristics of accident process of each reactor. In the case of Unit 2 reactor, the calculated result suggests little hydrogen generation because of no steam generation in the core for zirconium-steam reaction during fuel damage process. It could be the reason of no hydrogen explosion in the Unit 2 reactor building. Analyses have been performed also on the core material behavior in another chaotic period of 19-31 March 2011, and it resulted in a re-melt hypothesis that core material in each reactor should have melted again due to shortage of cooling water. The hypothesis is consistent with many observed features of radioactive materials dispersion into the environment.

A developmental study of risky decisions on the cake gambling task: age and gender analyses of probability estimation and reward evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Westenberg, P Michiel; Crone, Eveline A

2008-01-01

Decision making, or the process of choosing between competing courses of actions, is highly sensitive to age-related change, showing development throughout adolescence. In this study, we tested whether the development of decision making under risk is related to changes in risk-estimation abilities. Participants (N = 93) between ages 8-30 performed a child friendly gambling task, the Cake Gambling task, which was inspired by the Cambridge Gambling Task (Rogers et al., 1999), which has previously been shown to be sensitive to orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) damage. The task allowed comparisons of the contributions to risk perception of (1) the ability to estimate probabilities and (2) evaluate rewards. Adult performance patterns were highly similar to those found in previous reports, showing increased risk taking with increases in the probability of winning and the magnitude of potential reward. Behavioral patterns in children and adolescents did not differ from adult patterns, showing a similar ability for probability estimation and reward evaluation. These data suggest that participants 8 years and older perform like adults in a gambling task, previously shown to depend on the OFC in which all the information needed to make an advantageous decision is given on each trial and no information needs to be inferred from previous behavior. Interestingly, at all ages, females were more risk-averse than males. These results suggest that the increase in real-life risky behavior that is seen in adolescence is not a consequence of changes in risk perception abilities. The findings are discussed in relation to theories about the protracted development of the prefrontal cortex.

The concept of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

1989-01-01

The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

Comparison of pre-test analyses with the Sizewell-B 1:10 scale prestressed concrete containment test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dameron, R.A.; Rashid, Y.R.; Parks, M.B.

1991-01-01

This paper describes pretest analyses of a one-tenth scale model of the 'Sizewell-B' prestressed concrete containment building. The work was performed by ANATECH Research Corp. under contract with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Hydraulic testing of the model was conducted in the United Kingdom by the Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB). In order to further their understanding of containment behavior, the USNRC, through an agreement with the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), also participated in the test program with SNL serving as their technical agent. The analyses that were conducted included two global axisymmetric models with 'bonded' and 'unbonded' analytical treatment of meridional tendons, a 3D quarter model of the structure, an axisymmetric representation of the equipment hatch region, and local plane stress and r-θ models of a buttress. Results of these analyses are described and compared with the results of the test. A global hoop failure at midheight of the cylinder and a shear/bending type failure at the base of the cylinder wall were both found to have roughly equal probability of occurrence; however, the shear failure mode had higher uncertainty associated with it. Consequently, significant effort was dedicated to improving the modeling capability for concrete shear behavior. This work is also described briefly. (author)

Comparison of pre-test analyses with the Sizewell-B 1:10 scale prestressed concrete containment test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dameron, R.A.; Rashid, Y.R.; Parks, M.B.

1991-01-01

This paper describes pretest analyses of a one-tenth scale model of the Sizewell-B prestressed concrete containment building. The work was performed by ANATECH Research Corp. under contract with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Hydraulic testing of the model was conducted in the United Kingdom by the Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB). In order to further their understanding of containment behavior, the USNRC, through an agreement with the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), also participated in the test program with SNL serving as their technical agent. The analyses that were conducted included two global axisymmetric models with ''bonded'' and ''unbonded'' analytical treatment of meridional tendons, a 3D quarter model of the structure, an axisymmetric representation of the equipment hatch region, and local plan stress and r-θ models of a buttress. Results of these analyses are described and compared with the results of the test. A global hoop failure at midheight of the cylinder and a shear/bending type failure at the base of the cylinder wall were both found to have roughly equal probability of occurrence; however, the shear failure mode had higher uncertainty associated with it. Consequently, significant effort was dedicated to improving the modeling capability for concrete shear behavior. This work is also described briefly. 5 refs., 7 figs

INTERACTIVE VISUALIZATION OF PROBABILITY AND CUMULATIVE DENSITY FUNCTIONS

KAUST Repository

Potter, Kristin; Kirby, Robert Michael; Xiu, Dongbin; Johnson, Chris R.

2012-01-01

The probability density function (PDF), and its corresponding cumulative density function (CDF), provide direct statistical insight into the characterization of a random process or field. Typically displayed as a histogram, one can infer probabilities of the occurrence of particular events. When examining a field over some two-dimensional domain in which at each point a PDF of the function values is available, it is challenging to assess the global (stochastic) features present within the field. In this paper, we present a visualization system that allows the user to examine two-dimensional data sets in which PDF (or CDF) information is available at any position within the domain. The tool provides a contour display showing the normed difference between the PDFs and an ansatz PDF selected by the user and, furthermore, allows the user to interactively examine the PDF at any particular position. Canonical examples of the tool are provided to help guide the reader into the mapping of stochastic information to visual cues along with a description of the use of the tool for examining data generated from an uncertainty quantification exercise accomplished within the field of electrophysiology.

Recursive recovery of Markov transition probabilities from boundary value data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patch, Sarah Kathyrn [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

1994-04-01

In an effort to mathematically describe the anisotropic diffusion of infrared radiation in biological tissue Gruenbaum posed an anisotropic diffusion boundary value problem in 1989. In order to accommodate anisotropy, he discretized the temporal as well as the spatial domain. The probabilistic interpretation of the diffusion equation is retained; radiation is assumed to travel according to a random walk (of sorts). In this random walk the probabilities with which photons change direction depend upon their previous as well as present location. The forward problem gives boundary value data as a function of the Markov transition probabilities. The inverse problem requires finding the transition probabilities from boundary value data. Problems in the plane are studied carefully in this thesis. Consistency conditions amongst the data are derived. These conditions have two effects: they prohibit inversion of the forward map but permit smoothing of noisy data. Next, a recursive algorithm which yields a family of solutions to the inverse problem is detailed. This algorithm takes advantage of all independent data and generates a system of highly nonlinear algebraic equations. Pluecker-Grassmann relations are instrumental in simplifying the equations. The algorithm is used to solve the 4 x 4 problem. Finally, the smallest nontrivial problem in three dimensions, the 2 x 2 x 2 problem, is solved.

Probability via expectation

CERN Document Server

Whittle, Peter

1992-01-01

This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

The probability outcome correpondence principle : a dispositional view of the interpretation of probability statements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keren, G.; Teigen, K.H.

2001-01-01

This article presents a framework for lay people's internal representations of probabilities, which supposedly reflect the strength of underlying dispositions, or propensities, associated with the predicted event. From this framework, we derive the probability-outcome correspondence principle, which

Generation of pseudo-random numbers

Science.gov (United States)

Howell, L. W.; Rheinfurth, M. H.

1982-01-01

Practical methods for generating acceptable random numbers from a variety of probability distributions which are frequently encountered in engineering applications are described. The speed, accuracy, and guarantee of statistical randomness of the various methods are discussed.

Poisson Processes in Free Probability

OpenAIRE

An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

2015-01-01

We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

Solving probability reasoning based on DNA strand displacement and probability modules.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Xiaobiao; Wang, Xiaojun; Zhou, Changjun

2017-12-01

In computation biology, DNA strand displacement technology is used to simulate the computation process and has shown strong computing ability. Most researchers use it to solve logic problems, but it is only rarely used in probabilistic reasoning. To process probabilistic reasoning, a conditional probability derivation model and total probability model based on DNA strand displacement were established in this paper. The models were assessed through the game "read your mind." It has been shown to enable the application of probabilistic reasoning in genetic diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

WE-F-304-04: Radiosurgery for Vestibular Schwannomas: Tumor Control Probability Analyses and Recommended Reporting Standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soltys, S.

2015-01-01

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) was introduced clinically more than twenty years ago, and many subsequent publications have reported safety and efficacy data. The AAPM Working Group on Biological Effects of Hypofractionated Radiotherapy/SBRT (WGSBRT) extracted published treatment outcomes data from extensive literature searches to summarize and construct tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for six anatomical regions: Cranial, Head and Neck, Thoracic, Abdominal, Pelvic, and Spinal. In this session, we present the WGSBRT’s work for cranial sites, and recurrent head and neck cancer. From literature-based data and associated models, guidelines to aid with safe and effective hypofractionated radiotherapy treatment are being determined. Further, the ability of existing and proposed radiobiological models to fit these data is considered as to the ability to distinguish between the linear-quadratic and alternative radiobiological models such as secondary cell death from vascular damage, immunogenic, or bystander effects. Where appropriate, specific model parameters are estimated. As described in “The lessons of QUANTEC,” (1), lack of adequate reporting standards continues to limit the amount of useful quantitative information that can be extracted from peer-reviewed publications. Recommendations regarding reporting standards are considered, to enable such reviews to achieve more complete characterization of clinical outcomes. 1 Jackson A, Marks LB, Bentzen SM, Eisbruch A, Yorke ED, Ten Haken RK, Constine LS, Deasy JO. The lessons of QUANTEC: recommendations for reporting and gathering data on dose-volume dependencies of treatment outcome. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 2010 Mar 1;76(3 Suppl):S155–60. Learning Objectives: Describe the techniques, types of cancer and dose schedules used in treating recurrent H&N cancers with SBRT List the radiobiological models that compete with the linear-quadratic model

WE-F-304-04: Radiosurgery for Vestibular Schwannomas: Tumor Control Probability Analyses and Recommended Reporting Standards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soltys, S. [Stanford Univ. (United States)

2015-06-15

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) was introduced clinically more than twenty years ago, and many subsequent publications have reported safety and efficacy data. The AAPM Working Group on Biological Effects of Hypofractionated Radiotherapy/SBRT (WGSBRT) extracted published treatment outcomes data from extensive literature searches to summarize and construct tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for six anatomical regions: Cranial, Head and Neck, Thoracic, Abdominal, Pelvic, and Spinal. In this session, we present the WGSBRT’s work for cranial sites, and recurrent head and neck cancer. From literature-based data and associated models, guidelines to aid with safe and effective hypofractionated radiotherapy treatment are being determined. Further, the ability of existing and proposed radiobiological models to fit these data is considered as to the ability to distinguish between the linear-quadratic and alternative radiobiological models such as secondary cell death from vascular damage, immunogenic, or bystander effects. Where appropriate, specific model parameters are estimated. As described in “The lessons of QUANTEC,” (1), lack of adequate reporting standards continues to limit the amount of useful quantitative information that can be extracted from peer-reviewed publications. Recommendations regarding reporting standards are considered, to enable such reviews to achieve more complete characterization of clinical outcomes. 1 Jackson A, Marks LB, Bentzen SM, Eisbruch A, Yorke ED, Ten Haken RK, Constine LS, Deasy JO. The lessons of QUANTEC: recommendations for reporting and gathering data on dose-volume dependencies of treatment outcome. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 2010 Mar 1;76(3 Suppl):S155–60. Learning Objectives: Describe the techniques, types of cancer and dose schedules used in treating recurrent H&N cancers with SBRT List the radiobiological models that compete with the linear-quadratic model

Sensitivity of the probability of failure to probability of detection curve regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garza, J.; Millwater, H.

2016-01-01

Non-destructive inspection (NDI) techniques have been shown to play a vital role in fracture control plans, structural health monitoring, and ensuring availability and reliability of piping, pressure vessels, mechanical and aerospace equipment. Probabilistic fatigue simulations are often used in order to determine the efficacy of an inspection procedure with the NDI method modeled as a probability of detection (POD) curve. These simulations can be used to determine the most advantageous NDI method for a given application. As an aid to this process, a first order sensitivity method of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to regions of the POD curve (lower tail, middle region, right tail) is developed and presented here. The sensitivity method computes the partial derivative of the POF with respect to a change in each region of a POD or multiple POD curves. The sensitivities are computed at no cost by reusing the samples from an existing Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. A numerical example is presented considering single and multiple inspections. - Highlights: • Sensitivities of probability-of-failure to a region of probability-of-detection curve. • The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost. • Sensitivities identify the important region of a POD curve. • Sensitivities can be used as a guide to selecting the optimal POD curve.

Truth, possibility and probability new logical foundations of probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Chuaqui, R

1991-01-01

Anyone involved in the philosophy of science is naturally drawn into the study of the foundations of probability. Different interpretations of probability, based on competing philosophical ideas, lead to different statistical techniques, and frequently to mutually contradictory consequences. This unique book presents a new interpretation of probability, rooted in the traditional interpretation that was current in the 17th and 18th centuries. Mathematical models are constructed based on this interpretation, and statistical inference and decision theory are applied, including some examples in artificial intelligence, solving the main foundational problems. Nonstandard analysis is extensively developed for the construction of the models and in some of the proofs. Many nonstandard theorems are proved, some of them new, in particular, a representation theorem that asserts that any stochastic process can be approximated by a process defined over a space with equiprobable outcomes.

Millifluidic droplet analyser for microbiology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baraban, L.; Bertholle, F.; Salverda, M.L.M.; Bremond, N.; Panizza, P.; Baudry, J.; Visser, de J.A.G.M.; Bibette, J.

2011-01-01

We present a novel millifluidic droplet analyser (MDA) for precisely monitoring the dynamics of microbial populations over multiple generations in numerous (=103) aqueous emulsion droplets (100 nL). As a first application, we measure the growth rate of a bacterial strain and determine the minimal

Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

2015-04-01

This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pre-Aggregation with Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2006-01-01

Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how...... the distributions can be subsequently used in pre-aggregation. Since the probability distributions can become large, we show how to achieve good time and space efficiency by approximating the distributions. We present the results of several experiments that demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. The work...... is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. This paper is the first to consider the approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions....

The maximum entropy method of moments and Bayesian probability theory

Science.gov (United States)

Bretthorst, G. Larry

2013-08-01

The problem of density estimation occurs in many disciplines. For example, in MRI it is often necessary to classify the types of tissues in an image. To perform this classification one must first identify the characteristics of the tissues to be classified. These characteristics might be the intensity of a T1 weighted image and in MRI many other types of characteristic weightings (classifiers) may be generated. In a given tissue type there is no single intensity that characterizes the tissue, rather there is a distribution of intensities. Often this distributions can be characterized by a Gaussian, but just as often it is much more complicated. Either way, estimating the distribution of intensities is an inference problem. In the case of a Gaussian distribution, one must estimate the mean and standard deviation. However, in the Non-Gaussian case the shape of the density function itself must be inferred. Three common techniques for estimating density functions are binned histograms [1, 2], kernel density estimation [3, 4], and the maximum entropy method of moments [5, 6]. In the introduction, the maximum entropy method of moments will be reviewed. Some of its problems and conditions under which it fails will be discussed. Then in later sections, the functional form of the maximum entropy method of moments probability distribution will be incorporated into Bayesian probability theory. It will be shown that Bayesian probability theory solves all of the problems with the maximum entropy method of moments. One gets posterior probabilities for the Lagrange multipliers, and, finally, one can put error bars on the resulting estimated density function.

Exact capture probability analysis of GSC receivers over i.n.d. Rayleigh fading channels

KAUST Repository

Nam, Sungsik

2013-07-01

A closed-form expression of the capture probability of generalized selection combining (GSC) RAKE receivers was introduced in [1]. The idea behind this new performance metric is to quantify how the remaining set of uncombined paths affects the overall performance both in terms of loss in power and increase in interference levels. In this previous work, the assumption was made that the fading is both independent and identically distributed from path to path. However, the average strength of each path is different in reality. In order to derive a closed-form expression of the capture probability over independent and non-identically distributed (i.n.d.) fading channels, we need to derive the joint statistics of ordered non-identical exponential variates. With this motivation in mind, we first provide in this paper some new order statistics results in terms of both moment generating function (MGF) and probability density function (PDF) expressions under an i.n.d. assumption and then derive a new exact closed-form expression for the capture probability GSC RAKE receivers in this more realistic scenario. © 2013 IEEE.

Transitional Probabilities Are Prioritized over Stimulus/Pattern Probabilities in Auditory Deviance Detection: Memory Basis for Predictive Sound Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Mittag, Maria; Takegata, Rika; Winkler, István

2016-09-14

Representations encoding the probabilities of auditory events do not directly support predictive processing. In contrast, information about the probability with which a given sound follows another (transitional probability) allows predictions of upcoming sounds. We tested whether behavioral and cortical auditory deviance detection (the latter indexed by the mismatch negativity event-related potential) relies on probabilities of sound patterns or on transitional probabilities. We presented healthy adult volunteers with three types of rare tone-triplets among frequent standard triplets of high-low-high (H-L-H) or L-H-L pitch structure: proximity deviant (H-H-H/L-L-L), reversal deviant (L-H-L/H-L-H), and first-tone deviant (L-L-H/H-H-L). If deviance detection was based on pattern probability, reversal and first-tone deviants should be detected with similar latency because both differ from the standard at the first pattern position. If deviance detection was based on transitional probabilities, then reversal deviants should be the most difficult to detect because, unlike the other two deviants, they contain no low-probability pitch transitions. The data clearly showed that both behavioral and cortical auditory deviance detection uses transitional probabilities. Thus, the memory traces underlying cortical deviance detection may provide a link between stimulus probability-based change/novelty detectors operating at lower levels of the auditory system and higher auditory cognitive functions that involve predictive processing. Our research presents the first definite evidence for the auditory system prioritizing transitional probabilities over probabilities of individual sensory events. Forming representations for transitional probabilities paves the way for predictions of upcoming sounds. Several recent theories suggest that predictive processing provides the general basis of human perception, including important auditory functions, such as auditory scene analysis. Our

Efficient, Robust and Constant-Round Distributed RSA Key Generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damgård, Ivan Bjerre; Mikkelsen, Gert Læssøe

2010-01-01

We present the first protocol for distributed RSA key generation which is constant round, secure against malicious adversaries and has a negligibly small bound on the error probability, even using only one iteration of the underlying primality test on each candidate number.......We present the first protocol for distributed RSA key generation which is constant round, secure against malicious adversaries and has a negligibly small bound on the error probability, even using only one iteration of the underlying primality test on each candidate number....

Economic evaluation of maintenance strategies for steam generator tubes using probabilistic fracture mechanics and financial method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sagisaka, Mitsuyuki; Isobe, Yoshihiro; Yoshimura, Shinobu; Yagawa, Genki

2004-01-01

As an application of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) and a financial method, risk-benefit analyses were performed for the purpose of optimizing maintenance activities of steam generator (SG) tubes used in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Parameters such as in-service inspection (ISI) detection accuracy, ISI interval, sampling inspection, replacement of SGs and stress corrosion cracking (SCC) allowance operation were selected for sensitivity analyses. In the analysis of the operation introducing maintenance criteria, the effect of quantitative accuracy of the inspection was also taken into account. Although the analyses were mainly conducted for SG tubes made of Inconel 600 mill anneal (MA) materials, the analyses were also performed for SCC-resistant materials with making assumptions on their crack initiation probabilities and crack propagation laws. To justify whether or not it is worth while implementing the selected maintenance strategies in terms of an economic point of view, net present value (NPV) was calculated as an index which is one of the most fundamental financial indices for decision-making based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. (author)

Medicine in words and numbers: a cross-sectional survey comparing probability assessment scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koele Pieter

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the complex domain of medical decision making, reasoning under uncertainty can benefit from supporting tools. Automated decision support tools often build upon mathematical models, such as Bayesian networks. These networks require probabilities which often have to be assessed by experts in the domain of application. Probability response scales can be used to support the assessment process. We compare assessments obtained with different types of response scale. Methods General practitioners (GPs gave assessments on and preferences for three different probability response scales: a numerical scale, a scale with only verbal labels, and a combined verbal-numerical scale we had designed ourselves. Standard analyses of variance were performed. Results No differences in assessments over the three response scales were found. Preferences for type of scale differed: the less experienced GPs preferred the verbal scale, the most experienced preferred the numerical scale, with the groups in between having a preference for the combined verbal-numerical scale. Conclusion We conclude that all three response scales are equally suitable for supporting probability assessment. The combined verbal-numerical scale is a good choice for aiding the process, since it offers numerical labels to those who prefer numbers and verbal labels to those who prefer words, and accommodates both more and less experienced professionals.

Higher third-generation cephalosporin prescription proportion is associated with lower probability of reducing carbapenem use: a nationwide retrospective study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Allison Muller

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The ongoing extended spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE pandemic has led to an increasing carbapenem use, requiring release of guidelines for carbapenem usage in France in late 2010. We sought to determine factors associated with changes in carbapenem use in intensive care units (ICUs, medical and surgical wards between 2009 and 2013. Methods This ward-level multicentre retrospective study was based on data from French antibiotic and multidrug-resistant bacteria surveillance networks in healthcare facilities. Antibiotic use was expressed in defined daily doses per 1000 patient-days. Factors associated with the reduction in carbapenem use (yes/no over the study period were determined from random-effects logistic regression model (493 wards nested within 259 healthcare facilities: ward characteristics (type, size…, ward antibiotic use (initial antibiotic use [i.e., consumption of a given antibiotic in 2009], initial antibiotic prescribing profile [i.e., proportion of a given antibiotic in the overall antibiotic consumption in 2009] and reduction in the use of a given antibiotic between 2009 and 2013 and regional ESBL-PE incidence rate in acute care settings in 2011. Results Over the study period, carbapenem consumption in ICUs (n = 85, medical (n = 227 and surgical wards (n = 181 was equal to 73.4, 6.2 and 5.4 defined daily doses per 1000 patient-days, respectively. Release of guidelines was followed by a significant decrease in carbapenem use within ICUs and medical wards, and a slowdown in use within surgical wards. The following factors were independently associated with a higher probability of reducing carbapenem use: location in Eastern France, higher initial carbapenem prescribing profile and reductions in consumption of fluoroquinolones, glycopeptides and piperacillin/tazobactam. In parallel, factors independently associated with a lower probability of reducing carbapenem use were

Probability tales

CERN Document Server

Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

2011-01-01

This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

A Tale of Two Probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

2013-01-01

Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

Using Probability of Exceedance to Compare the Resource Risk of Renewable and Gas-Fired Generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2017-08-01

Of the myriad risks surrounding long-term investments in power plants, resource risk is one of the most difficult to mitigate, and is also perhaps the risk that most-clearly distinguishes renewable generation from natural gas-fired generation. For renewable generators like wind and solar projects, resource risk manifests as a quantity risk—i.e., the risk that the quantity of wind and insolation will be less than expected.i For gas-fired generators (i.e., a combined-cycle gas turbine or “CCGT”), resource risk manifests primarily as a price risk—i.e., the risk that natural gas will cost more than expected. Most often, resource risk—and natural gas price risk in particular—falls disproportionately on utility ratepayers, who are typically not well-equipped to manage this risk. As such, it is incumbent upon utilities, regulators, and policymakers to ensure that resource risk is taken into consideration when making or approving resource decisions, or enacting policies that influence the development of the electricity sector more broadly.

Impact of controlling the sum of error probability in the sequential probability ratio test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bijoy Kumarr Pradhan

2013-05-01

Full Text Available A generalized modified method is proposed to control the sum of error probabilities in sequential probability ratio test to minimize the weighted average of the two average sample numbers under a simple null hypothesis and a simple alternative hypothesis with the restriction that the sum of error probabilities is a pre-assigned constant to find the optimal sample size and finally a comparison is done with the optimal sample size found from fixed sample size procedure. The results are applied to the cases when the random variate follows a normal law as well as Bernoullian law.

Upgrading Probability via Fractions of Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frič Roman

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The influence of “Grundbegriffe” by A. N. Kolmogorov (published in 1933 on education in the area of probability and its impact on research in stochastics cannot be overestimated. We would like to point out three aspects of the classical probability theory “calling for” an upgrade: (i classical random events are black-and-white (Boolean; (ii classical random variables do not model quantum phenomena; (iii basic maps (probability measures and observables { dual maps to random variables have very different “mathematical nature”. Accordingly, we propose an upgraded probability theory based on Łukasiewicz operations (multivalued logic on events, elementary category theory, and covering the classical probability theory as a special case. The upgrade can be compared to replacing calculations with integers by calculations with rational (and real numbers. Namely, to avoid the three objections, we embed the classical (Boolean random events (represented by the f0; 1g-valued indicator functions of sets into upgraded random events (represented by measurable {0; 1}-valued functions, the minimal domain of probability containing “fractions” of classical random events, and we upgrade the notions of probability measure and random variable.

The Effect of High Frequency Pulse on the Discharge Probability in Micro EDM

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Qu, Y.; Zhang, W.; Ma, F.; Sha, Z.; Wang, Y.; Rolfe, B.; Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

High frequency pulse improves the machining efficiency of micro electric discharge machining (micro EDM), while it also brings some changes in micro EDM process. This paper focuses on the influence of skin-effect under the high frequency pulse on energy distribution and transmission in micro EDM, based on which, the rules of discharge probability of electrode end face are also analysed. On the basis of the electrical discharge process under the condition of high frequency pulse in micro EDM, COMSOL Multiphysics software is used to establish energy transmission model in micro electrode. The discharge energy distribution and transmission within tool electrode under different pulse frequencies, electrical currents, and permeability situation are studied in order to get the distribution pattern of current density and electric field intensity in the electrode end face under the influence of electrical parameters change. The electric field intensity distribution is regarded as the influencing parameter of discharge probability on the electrode end. Finally, MATLAB is used to fit the curve and obtain the distribution of discharge probability of electrode end face.

A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Jason; Lawman, Joshua; Murphy, Rachael; Nelson, Marissa

2011-01-01

This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining…

Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 2. Appendices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

1984-11-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 2 provides detailed procedures for using the techniques, detailed descriptions of the analyses performed to evaluate the techniques, and HEP estimates generated as part of this project. The results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. Judgments were shown to be consistent and to provide HEP estimates with a good degree of convergent validity. Of the two techniques tested, direct numerical estimation appears to be preferable in terms of ease of application and quality of results

Modeling Perceived Quality, Customer Satisfaction and Probability of Guest Returning to the Destination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olivera Blagojevic Popovic

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In the hotel industry, it is a well-known fact that, despite of quality and variety of services provided, there is a low probability that the guests will return. This research is focused on identifying the basic factors of the hotel offer, which could determine the influence on the correlation between the guests’ satisfaction and the probability of their return. The objective of the article is to explore the relationship between the guests’ satisfaction with the quality hotel services in total (including the tourist offer of the place and the probability of his return to the same destination. The questionnaire method was applied in the survey, and the data were analysed based on factor analysis. Thereafter, the model for forecasting the probability of the guests returning to the destination was established, by using the example of Montenegrin tourism. The model represents a defined framework for the guest’s decision-making process. It identifies two main characteristics of guest experiences: satisfaction and rated quality (of the destination’s overall hotel service and tourist offer. The same model evaluates the impact of the above factors on the probability of the guests’ returning to the same destination. The starting hypothesis was the existence of a high degree of correlation between the guests’ satisfaction (with the destination’s hotel services and tourist offer and the probability of returning to the selected Montenegrin destinations. The research confirmed the above-mentioned hypothesis. The results have revealed that there are significant differences in perceived quality, i.e. satisfaction between the target groups of Eastern and Western European tourists

Is probability of frequency too narrow?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.

1993-01-01

Modern methods of statistical data analysis, such as empirical and hierarchical Bayesian methods, should find increasing use in future Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications. In addition, there will be a more formalized use of expert judgment in future PRAs. These methods require an extension of the probabilistic framework of PRA, in particular, the popular notion of probability of frequency, to consideration of frequency of frequency, frequency of probability, and probability of probability. The genesis, interpretation, and examples of these three extended notions are discussed

An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

2008-01-01

This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

Normal probability plots with confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

2015-01-01

Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Free probability and random matrices

CERN Document Server

Mingo, James A

2017-01-01

This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

Probability with applications and R

CERN Document Server

Dobrow, Robert P

2013-01-01

An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

A philosophical essay on probabilities

CERN Document Server

Laplace, Marquis de

1996-01-01

A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

Heart sounds analysis using probability assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Plesinger, F; Viscor, I; Halamek, J; Jurco, J; Jurak, P

2017-07-31

This paper describes a method for automated discrimination of heart sounds recordings according to the Physionet Challenge 2016. The goal was to decide if the recording refers to normal or abnormal heart sounds or if it is not possible to decide (i.e. 'unsure' recordings). Heart sounds S1 and S2 are detected using amplitude envelopes in the band 15-90 Hz. The averaged shape of the S1/S2 pair is computed from amplitude envelopes in five different bands (15-90 Hz; 55-150 Hz; 100-250 Hz; 200-450 Hz; 400-800 Hz). A total of 53 features are extracted from the data. The largest group of features is extracted from the statistical properties of the averaged shapes; other features are extracted from the symmetry of averaged shapes, and the last group of features is independent of S1 and S2 detection. Generated features are processed using logical rules and probability assessment, a prototype of a new machine-learning method. The method was trained using 3155 records and tested on 1277 hidden records. It resulted in a training score of 0.903 (sensitivity 0.869, specificity 0.937) and a testing score of 0.841 (sensitivity 0.770, specificity 0.913). The revised method led to a test score of 0.853 in the follow-up phase of the challenge. The presented solution achieved 7th place out of 48 competing entries in the Physionet Challenge 2016 (official phase). In addition, the PROBAfind software for probability assessment was introduced.

Association between Adult Height and Risk of Colorectal, Lung, and Prostate Cancer : Results from Meta-analyses of Prospective Studies and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khankari, Nikhil K.; Shu, Xiao Ou; Wen, Wanqing; Kraft, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Peters, Ulrike; Schildkraut, Joellen; Schumacher, Fredrick; Bofetta, Paolo; Risch, Angela; Bickeböller, Heike; Amos, Christopher I.; Easton, Douglas; Eeles, Rosalind A.; Gruber, Stephen B.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hunter, David J.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Pierce, Brandon L.; Zheng, Wei; Blalock, Kendra; Campbell, Peter T.; Casey, Graham; Conti, David V.; Edlund, Christopher K.; Figueiredo, Jane; James Gauderman, W.; Gong, Jian; Green, Roger C.; Harju, John F.; Harrison, Tabitha A.; Jacobs, Eric J.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Jiao, Shuo; Li, Li; Lin, Yi; Manion, Frank J.; Moreno, Victor; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Raskin, Leon; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Seminara, Daniela; Severi, Gianluca; Stenzel, Stephanie L.; Thomas, Duncan C.; Hopper, John L.; Southey, Melissa C.; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; Gibson, Lorna; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Ahsan, Habib; Whittemore, Alice; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Hofman, Albert; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Dahmen, Norbert; Beckman, Lars; Crisponi, Laura; Hall, Per; Czene, Kamila; Irwanto, Astrid; Liu, Jianjun; Easton, Douglas F.; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Eeles, Rosalind; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham; Neal, David; Donovan, Jenny L.; Hamdy, Freddie C.; Wiklund, Fredrik; Gronberg, Henrik; Haiman, Christopher; Schumacher, Fred; Travis, Ruth; Riboli, Elio; Hunter, David; Gapstur, Susan; Berndt, Sonja; Chanock, Stephen; Han, Younghun; Su, Li; Wei, Yongyue; Hung, Rayjean J.; Brhane, Yonathan; McLaughlin, John; Brennan, Paul; McKay, James D.; Rosenberger, Albert; Houlston, Richard S.; Caporaso, Neil; Teresa Landi, Maria; Heinrich, Joachim; Wu, Xifeng; Ye, Yuanqing; Christiani, David C.

2016-01-01

Background: Observational studies examining associations between adult height and risk of colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers have generated mixed results. We conducted meta-analyses using data from prospective cohort studies and further carried out Mendelian randomization analyses, using

Comparison of design and probabilistic analyses of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maslenikov, O.R.; Johnson, J.J.; Campbell, R.D.

1995-01-01

A study was made to evaluate the margin of conservatism introduced into design in-structures response spectra by following standard design analysis procedures according to the U.S.Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standard Review Plan and Regulatory Guides for comparing spectra produced by such a design analysis to response from median-centered probabilistic analyses. Three typical nuclear plant structures were studied: PWR reactor building, PWR auxiliary building and BWR reactor building. Each building was assumed to be situated on three idealized sites: a rock site, a medium and a soft soil site. All buildings were assumed to have embedded foundations. The PWR reactor building was also assumed to have a surface foundation. Each design analysis was performed inn accordance with the current SRP criteria. Each probabilistic analysis consisted of 30 earthquake simulations for which the free-field motions and soil and structural properties were varied; the simulated earthquakes were generated such that their mean-plus-one-standard-deviation free-field spectra approximated the Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.60 design spectra. In-structure response spectra from the design analyses were compared with the 84% non-exceedance probability (NEP) spectra from the probabilistic analyses. The comparisons showed that the design method produced conservative results for all cases. The smallest margin was about 10% for buildings on rock sites. Softer sides had larger margins of conservatism; the reactor buildings on the soft soil site had margins of as much as 100% (factor of 2),. The shorter structures and lower locations in all buildings had smaller margins. The margin of conservatism for the surface founded reactor building was about 20% more than for the embedded reactor building. (author). 3 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Alternative probability theories for cognitive psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Narens, Louis

2014-01-01

Various proposals for generalizing event spaces for probability functions have been put forth in the mathematical, scientific, and philosophic literatures. In cognitive psychology such generalizations are used for explaining puzzling results in decision theory and for modeling the influence of context effects. This commentary discusses proposals for generalizing probability theory to event spaces that are not necessarily boolean algebras. Two prominent examples are quantum probability theory, which is based on the set of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and topological probability theory, which is based on the set of open sets of a topology. Both have been applied to a variety of cognitive situations. This commentary focuses on how event space properties can influence probability concepts and impact cognitive modeling. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Evaluation of methods used for the direct generation of response spectra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayers, R.L.; Muraki, T.; Jones, L.R.; Donikian, R.

1983-01-01

The paper presents an alternate methodology by which seismic in-structure response spectra may be generated directly from either ground or floor excitation spectra. The method is based upon stochastic concepts and utilizes the modal superposition solution. The philosophy of the method is based upon the notion that the evaluation of 'peak' response in uncertain excitation environments is only meaningful in a probabilistic sense. This interpretation of response spectra facilitates the generation of in-structure spectra for any non-exceedance probability (NEP). The method is validated by comparisons with a set of deterministic time-history analyses with three example models: an eleven-story building model, a containment structure stick model, and a floor mounted control panel, subjected to ten input spectrum compatible acceleration time-histories. A significant finding resulting from these examples is that the time-history method portrayed substantial variation in the resulting in-structure spectra, and therefore is unreliable for the generation of spectra. It is shown that the average of the time-history generated spectra can be estimated by the direct generation procedure, and reliable spectra may be generated for 85 NEP levels. The methodology presented herein is shown to be valid for both primary and secondary systems. Also included in the paper, is a review of the stochastic methods proposed by Singh and Der Kiureghian et. al., and the Fourier transform method proposed by Scanlan et al. (orig./HP)

Prevalence of probable Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder symptoms: result from a Spanish sample of children.

Science.gov (United States)

Cerrillo-Urbina, Alberto José; García-Hermoso, Antonio; Martínez-Vizcaíno, Vicente; Pardo-Guijarro, María Jesús; Ruiz-Hermosa, Abel; Sánchez-López, Mairena

2018-03-15

The aims of our study were to: (i) determine the prevalence of children aged 4 to 6 years with probable Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) symptoms in the Spanish population; and (ii) analyse the association of probable ADHD symptoms with sex, age, type of school, origin (native or foreign) and socio-economic status in these children. This cross-sectional study included 1189 children (4 to 6 years-old) from 21 primary schools in 19 towns from the Ciudad Real and Cuenca provinces, Castilla-La Mancha region, Spain. The ADHD Rating Scales IV for parents and teachers was administered to determine the probability of ADHD. The 90th percentile cut-off was used to establish the prevalence of inattention, hyperactivity/impulsivity and combined subtype. The prevalence of children with probable ADHD symptoms was 5.4% (2.6% inattention subtype symptoms, 1.5% hyperactivity/impulsivity subtype symptoms, and 1.3% combined subtype symptoms). Children aged 4 to 5 years showed a higher prevalence of probable ADHD in the inattention subtype symptoms and in total of all subtypes than children aged 6 years, and children with low socio-economic status reported a higher prevalence of probable ADHD symptoms (each subtype and total of all of them) than those with medium and high socio-economic status. Early diagnosis and an understanding of the predictors of being probable ADHD are needed to direct appropriate identification and intervention efforts. These screening efforts should be especially addressed to vulnerable groups, particularly low socio-economic status families and younger children.

Multifractals embedded in short time series: An unbiased estimation of probability moment

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Lu; Yang, Tianguang; Yin, Yanhua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

2016-12-01

An exact estimation of probability moments is the base for several essential concepts, such as the multifractals, the Tsallis entropy, and the transfer entropy. By means of approximation theory we propose a new method called factorial-moment-based estimation of probability moments. Theoretical prediction and computational results show that it can provide us an unbiased estimation of the probability moments of continuous order. Calculations on probability redistribution model verify that it can extract exactly multifractal behaviors from several hundred recordings. Its powerfulness in monitoring evolution of scaling behaviors is exemplified by two empirical cases, i.e., the gait time series for fast, normal, and slow trials of a healthy volunteer, and the closing price series for Shanghai stock market. By using short time series with several hundred lengths, a comparison with the well-established tools displays significant advantages of its performance over the other methods. The factorial-moment-based estimation can evaluate correctly the scaling behaviors in a scale range about three generations wider than the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and the basic estimation. The estimation of partition function given by the wavelet transform modulus maxima has unacceptable fluctuations. Besides the scaling invariance focused in the present paper, the proposed factorial moment of continuous order can find its various uses, such as finding nonextensive behaviors of a complex system and reconstructing the causality relationship network between elements of a complex system.

Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

CERN Document Server

Pugachev, V S

1984-01-01

Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

CERN Document Server

Helms, Lester L

2010-01-01

This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

Probability in quantum mechanics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. G. Gilson

1982-01-01

Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

Science.gov (United States)

Odafe, Victor U.

2011-01-01

Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

Analyser of sweeping electron beam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strasser, A.

1993-01-01

The electron beam analyser has an array of conductors that can be positioned in the field of the sweeping beam, an electronic signal treatment system for the analysis of the signals generated in the conductors by the incident electrons and a display for the different characteristics of the electron beam

Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, D.L.

1988-12-01

Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.L.

1988-12-01

Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs

Economic choices reveal probability distortion in macaque monkeys.

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

2015-02-18

Economic choices are largely determined by two principal elements, reward value (utility) and probability. Although nonlinear utility functions have been acknowledged for centuries, nonlinear probability weighting (probability distortion) was only recently recognized as a ubiquitous aspect of real-world choice behavior. Even when outcome probabilities are known and acknowledged, human decision makers often overweight low probability outcomes and underweight high probability outcomes. Whereas recent studies measured utility functions and their corresponding neural correlates in monkeys, it is not known whether monkeys distort probability in a manner similar to humans. Therefore, we investigated economic choices in macaque monkeys for evidence of probability distortion. We trained two monkeys to predict reward from probabilistic gambles with constant outcome values (0.5 ml or nothing). The probability of winning was conveyed using explicit visual cues (sector stimuli). Choices between the gambles revealed that the monkeys used the explicit probability information to make meaningful decisions. Using these cues, we measured probability distortion from choices between the gambles and safe rewards. Parametric modeling of the choices revealed classic probability weighting functions with inverted-S shape. Therefore, the animals overweighted low probability rewards and underweighted high probability rewards. Empirical investigation of the behavior verified that the choices were best explained by a combination of nonlinear value and nonlinear probability distortion. Together, these results suggest that probability distortion may reflect evolutionarily preserved neuronal processing. Copyright © 2015 Stauffer et al.

Probability density function evolution of power systems subject to stochastic variation of renewable energy

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, J. Q.; Cong, Y. C.; Xiao, M. Q.

2018-05-01

As renewable energies are increasingly integrated into power systems, there is increasing interest in stochastic analysis of power systems.Better techniques should be developed to account for the uncertainty caused by penetration of renewables and consequently analyse its impacts on stochastic stability of power systems. In this paper, the Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) are used to represent the evolutionary behaviour of the power systems. The stationary Probability Density Function (PDF) solution to SDEs modelling power systems excited by Gaussian white noise is analysed. Subjected to such random excitation, the Joint Probability Density Function (JPDF) solution to the phase angle and angular velocity is governed by the generalized Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation. To solve this equation, the numerical method is adopted. Special measure is taken such that the generalized FPK equation is satisfied in the average sense of integration with the assumed PDF. Both weak and strong intensities of the stochastic excitations are considered in a single machine infinite bus power system. The numerical analysis has the same result as the one given by the Monte Carlo simulation. Potential studies on stochastic behaviour of multi-machine power systems with random excitations are discussed at the end.

Discounting of Monetary Rewards that are Both Delayed and Probabilistic: Delay and Probability Combine Multiplicatively, not Additively

Science.gov (United States)

Vanderveldt, Ariana; Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel

2014-01-01

The value of an outcome is affected both by the delay until its receipt (delay discounting) and by the likelihood of its receipt (probability discounting). Despite being well-described by the same hyperboloid function, delay and probability discounting involve fundamentally different processes, as revealed, for example, by the differential effects of reward amount. Previous research has focused on the discounting of delayed and probabilistic rewards separately, with little research examining more complex situations in which rewards are both delayed and probabilistic. In two experiments, participants made choices between smaller rewards that were both immediate and certain and larger rewards that were both delayed and probabilistic. Analyses revealed significant interactions between delay and probability factors inconsistent with an additive model. In contrast, a hyperboloid discounting model in which delay and probability were combined multiplicatively provided an excellent fit to the data. These results suggest that the hyperboloid is a good descriptor of decision making in complicated monetary choice situations like those people encounter in everyday life. PMID:24933696

Trends in development of probability assessment of nuclear power plant safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dach, K.

1989-01-01

A complete study of probability safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants is a multidisciplinary endeavor, requiring a qualified decision-making team composed of experienced professionals in individual disciplines and requiring good coordination of effort. The main concerns for the execution of a PSA study and related tasks are schematically presented. Also shown is a summary of the main steps for a PSA study at all three levels, with the incorporation of analysis of external events and the reliability of humans, including the necessary uncertainty analyses. 1 ref., 2 figs., 3 tabs

Seismic risk analyses in the German Risk Study, phase B

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosser, D.; Liemersdorf, H.

1991-01-01

The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants, Phase B. First simplified analyses in Phase A of the study allowed only a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in Phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in Phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behaviour and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications and model uncertainties. Some results for the PWR reference plant are given. (orig.)

Stochastic generation of hourly wind speed time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shamshad, A.; Wan Mohd Ali Wan Hussin; Bawadi, M.A.; Mohd Sanusi, S.A.

2006-01-01

In the present study hourly wind speed data of Kuala Terengganu in Peninsular Malaysia are simulated by using transition matrix approach of Markovian process. The wind speed time series is divided into various states based on certain criteria. The next wind speed states are selected based on the previous states. The cumulative probability transition matrix has been formed in which each row ends with 1. Using the uniform random numbers between 0 and 1, a series of future states is generated. These states have been converted to the corresponding wind speed values using another uniform random number generator. The accuracy of the model has been determined by comparing the statistical characteristics such as average, standard deviation, root mean square error, probability density function and autocorrelation function of the generated data to those of the original data. The generated wind speed time series data is capable to preserve the wind speed characteristics of the observed data

A Study of Strengthening Secondary Mathematics Teachers' Knowledge of Statistics and Probability via Professional Development

Science.gov (United States)

DeVaul, Lina

2017-01-01

A professional development program (PSPD) was implemented to improve in-service secondary mathematics teachers' content knowledge, pedagogical knowledge, and self-efficacy in teaching secondary school statistics and probability. Participants generated a teaching resource website at the conclusion of the PSPD program. Participants' content…

Expected utility with lower probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

1994-01-01

An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

The risk analysis used to manufacture 99Mo/99mTc generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fano Machín, Yoiz; Alberti Ramírez, Alejandro; Gamboa Marrero, Regla; Suárez Beyríes, Karina; Cruz Morales, Amed

2016-01-01

In this work the steps to be followed for the risk analysis in the process of production of 99 Mo / 99m Tc generators in CENTIS, using the methodology of analysis of modes and effects of failures are collected. The analysis of the type and probability of occurrence of the failures in the process, as well as the impact on the quality of the same and the probability of detection of such failures, were used for the use of techniques used in quality assurance such as: storm Ideas and cause-effect diagram. Scales were established for the determination of severity, probability of occurrence, probability of detection and calculation of the number of risk probabilities. The guidelines were laid down for the future application of this technique, which will establish a decision-making process regarding the risks associated with the production process of 99 Mo / 99m Tc generators. (author)

A method for analysing secondary economic effects generated by big research centres.

CERN Document Server

Bianchi-Streit, M.; Budde, R.; Reitz, H.; Sagnell, B.; Schmied, H.; Schorr, B.

Research activities in the natural sciences, and especially those in the field of pure research work as opposed to applied research, are being financially supported for various reasons, probably the least of which is the hope for a quick economic return. It has, nevertheless, been realised for a number of years that benefits of one sort or another may appear in various and sometimes unexpected ways, where these be— nefits are not the direct consequence of the applica— tion of a research result. They are rather to be com— pared with the well—known ”spin—off” effects obtained while pursuing the research work. An example may help to illustrate what is meant.

Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Hon, Nicholas

2017-06-14

Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.

Failure probability analysis of optical grid

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

2008-11-01

Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

Study on conditional probability of surface rupture: effect of fault dip and width of seismogenic layer

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, N.

2017-12-01

The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source

How Opportunity Costs Decrease the Probability of War in an Incomplete Information Game

OpenAIRE

Polachek, Solomon; Xiang, Jun

2008-01-01

This paper shows that the opportunity costs resulting from economic interdependence decrease the equilibrium probability of war in an incomplete information game. This result is strongly consistent with existing empirical analyses of the inverse trade-conflict relationship, but is the opposite of the conclusion reached by Gartzke et al. (2001), who reject the opportunity cost argument in a game-theoretic framework. As a result of this paper's findings, one cannot dismiss the opportunity cost ...

Activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex signals the accumulation of evidence in a probability learning task.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathieu d'Acremont

Full Text Available In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.

Application of RUNTA code in flood analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez Martin, F.; Benitez Fonzalez, F.

1994-01-01

Flood probability analyses carried out to date indicate the need to evaluate a large number of flood scenarios. This necessity is due to a variety of reasons, the most important of which include: - Large number of potential flood sources - Wide variety of characteristics of flood sources - Large possibility of flood-affected areas becoming inter linked, depending on the location of the potential flood sources - Diversity of flood flows from one flood source, depending on the size of the rupture and mode of operation - Isolation times applicable - Uncertainties in respect of the structural resistance of doors, penetration seals and floors - Applicable degrees of obstruction of floor drainage system Consequently, a tool which carries out the large number of calculations usually required in flood analyses, with speed and flexibility, is considered necessary. The RUNTA Code enables the range of possible scenarios to be calculated numerically, in accordance with all those parameters which, as a result of previous flood analyses, it is necessary to take into account in order to cover all the possible floods associated with each flood area

An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2012-01-01

This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

CERN Document Server

Ibe, Oliver

2014-01-01

The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t

Probability density functions of photochemicals over a coastal area of Northern Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgiadis, T.; Fortezza, F.; Alberti, L.; Strocchi, V.; Marani, A.; Dal Bo', G.

1998-01-01

The present paper surveys the findings of experimental studies and analyses of statistical probability density functions (PDFs) applied to air pollutant concentrations to provide an interpretation of the ground-level distributions of photochemical oxidants in the coastal area of Ravenna (Italy). The atmospheric-pollution data set was collected from the local environmental monitoring network for the period 1978-1989. Results suggest that the statistical distribution of surface ozone, once normalised over the solar radiation PDF for the whole measurement period, follows a log-normal law as found for other pollutants. Although the Weibull distribution also offers a good fit of the experimental data, the area's meteorological features seem to favour the former distribution once the statistical index estimates have been analysed. Local transport phenomena are discussed to explain the data tail trends

SILENE and TDT: A code for collision probability calculations in XY geometries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez, R.; Stankovski, Z.

1993-01-01

Collision probability methods are routinely used for cell and assembly multigroup transport calculations in core design tasks. Collision probability methods use a specialized tracking routine to compute neutron trajectories within a given geometric object. These trajectories are then used to generate the appropriate collision matrices in as many groups as required. Traditional tracking routines are based on open-quotes globalclose quotes geometric descriptions (such as regular meshes) and are not able to cope with the geometric detail required in actual core calculations. Therefore, users have to modify their geometry in order to match the geometric model accepted by the tracking routine, introducing thus a modeling error whose evaluation requires the use of a open-quotes referenceclose quotes method. Recently, an effort has been made to develop more flexible tracking routines either by directly adopting tracking Monte Carlo techniques or by coding of complicated geometries. Among these, the SILENE and TDT package is being developed at the Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique to provide routine as well as reference calculations in arbitrarily shaped XY geometries. This package combines a direct graphical acquisition system (SILENE) together with a node-based collision probability code for XY geometries (TDT)

Location Prediction Based on Transition Probability Matrices Constructing from Sequential Rules for Spatial-Temporal K-Anonymity Dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhao; Zhu, Yunhong; Wu, Chenxue

2016-01-01

Spatial-temporal k-anonymity has become a mainstream approach among techniques for protection of users’ privacy in location-based services (LBS) applications, and has been applied to several variants such as LBS snapshot queries and continuous queries. Analyzing large-scale spatial-temporal anonymity sets may benefit several LBS applications. In this paper, we propose two location prediction methods based on transition probability matrices constructing from sequential rules for spatial-temporal k-anonymity dataset. First, we define single-step sequential rules mined from sequential spatial-temporal k-anonymity datasets generated from continuous LBS queries for multiple users. We then construct transition probability matrices from mined single-step sequential rules, and normalize the transition probabilities in the transition matrices. Next, we regard a mobility model for an LBS requester as a stationary stochastic process and compute the n-step transition probability matrices by raising the normalized transition probability matrices to the power n. Furthermore, we propose two location prediction methods: rough prediction and accurate prediction. The former achieves the probabilities of arriving at target locations along simple paths those include only current locations, target locations and transition steps. By iteratively combining the probabilities for simple paths with n steps and the probabilities for detailed paths with n-1 steps, the latter method calculates transition probabilities for detailed paths with n steps from current locations to target locations. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments, and correctness and flexibility of our proposed algorithm have been verified. PMID:27508502

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

Quantum computing and probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferry, David K

2009-11-25

Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

Quantum computing and probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferry, David K

2009-01-01

Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Larissa L.; Reid, Janice A.; Forsman, Eric D.; Nichols, James D.

2009-01-01

Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.

Analyses of steam generator collector rupture for WWER-1000 using Relap5 code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Balabanov, E.; Ivanova, A. [Energoproekt, Sofia (Bulgaria)

1995-12-31

The paper presents some of the results of analyses of an accident with a LOCA from the primary to the secondary side of a WWER-1000/320 unit. The objective of the analyses is to estimate the primary coolant to the atmosphere, to point out the necessity of a well defined operator strategy for this type of accident as well as to evaluate the possibility to diagnose the accident and to minimize the radiological impact on the environment.

Analyses of steam generator collector rupture for WWER-1000 using Relap5 code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balabanov, E.; Ivanova, A.

1995-01-01

The paper presents some of the results of analyses of an accident with a LOCA from the primary to the secondary side of a WWER-1000/320 unit. The objective of the analyses is to estimate the primary coolant to the atmosphere, to point out the necessity of a well defined operator strategy for this type of accident as well as to evaluate the possibility to diagnose the accident and to minimize the radiological impact on the environment

Analyses of steam generator collector rupture for WWER-1000 using Relap5 code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Balabanov, E; Ivanova, A [Energoproekt, Sofia (Bulgaria)

1996-12-31

The paper presents some of the results of analyses of an accident with a LOCA from the primary to the secondary side of a WWER-1000/320 unit. The objective of the analyses is to estimate the primary coolant to the atmosphere, to point out the necessity of a well defined operator strategy for this type of accident as well as to evaluate the possibility to diagnose the accident and to minimize the radiological impact on the environment.

[Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

Science.gov (United States)

Dinya, E

1998-04-26

The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

Pre-aggregation for Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex uncertain multidimensional data (e.g., in order to optimize and personalize location-based services), this paper proposes novel types of {\\em probabilistic} OLAP queries that operate on aggregate values that are probability distributions...... and the techniques to process these queries. The paper also presents the methods for computing the probability distributions, which enables pre-aggregation, and for using the pre-aggregated distributions for further aggregation. In order to achieve good time and space efficiency, the methods perform approximate...... multidimensional data analysis that is considered in this paper (i.e., approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions)....

Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

2017-01-01

Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf

Does charge transfer correlate with ignition probability?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holdstock, Paul

2008-01-01

Flammable or explosive atmospheres exist in many industrial environments. The risk of ignition caused by electrostatic discharges is very real and there has been extensive study of the incendiary nature of sparks and brush discharges. It is clear that in order to ignite a gas, an amount of energy needs to be delivered to a certain volume of gas within a comparatively short time. It is difficult to measure the energy released in an electrostatic discharge directly, but it is possible to approximate the energy in a spark generated from a well defined electrical circuit. The spark energy required to ignite a gas, vapour or dust cloud can be determined by passing such sparks through them. There is a relationship between energy and charge in a capacitive circuit and so it is possible to predict whether or not a spark discharge will cause an ignition by measuring the charge transferred in the spark. Brush discharges are in many ways less well defined than sparks. Nevertheless, some work has been done that has established a relationship between charge transferred in brush discharges and the probability of igniting a flammable atmosphere. The question posed by this paper concerns whether such a relationship holds true in all circumstances and if there is a universal correlation between charge transfer and ignition probability. Data is presented on discharges from textile materials that go some way to answering this question.

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.

1996-03-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , S st , p st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , S su , p su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , S st , p st ) and (S su , S su , p su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.

1996-01-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , L st , P st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , L su , P su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , L st , P st ) and (S su , L su , P su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima

2002-01-01

Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability

A drawback and an improvement of the classical Weibull probability plot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, R.

2014-01-01

The classical Weibull Probability Paper (WPP) plot has been widely used to identify a model for fitting a given dataset. It is based on a match between the WPP plots of the model and data in shape. This paper carries out an analysis for the Weibull transformations that create the WPP plot and shows that the shape of the WPP plot of the data randomly generated from a distribution model can be significantly different from the shape of the WPP plot of the model due to the high non-linearity of the Weibull transformations. As such, choosing model based on the shape of the WPP plot of data can be unreliable. A cdf-based weighted least squares method is proposed to improve the parameter estimation accuracy; and an improved WPP plot is suggested to avoid the drawback of the classical WPP plot. The appropriateness and usefulness of the proposed estimation method and probability plot are illustrated by simulation and real-world examples

The rigorous bound on the transmission probability for massless scalar field of non-negative-angular-momentum mode emitted from a Myers-Perry black hole

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ngampitipan, Tritos, E-mail: tritos.ngampitipan@gmail.com [Faculty of Science, Chandrakasem Rajabhat University, Ratchadaphisek Road, Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900 (Thailand); Particle Physics Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Phayathai Road, Patumwan, Bangkok 10330 (Thailand); Boonserm, Petarpa, E-mail: petarpa.boonserm@gmail.com [Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Phayathai Road, Patumwan, Bangkok 10330 (Thailand); Chatrabhuti, Auttakit, E-mail: dma3ac2@gmail.com [Particle Physics Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Phayathai Road, Patumwan, Bangkok 10330 (Thailand); Visser, Matt, E-mail: matt.visser@msor.vuw.ac.nz [School of Mathematics, Statistics, and Operations Research, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington 6140 (New Zealand)

2016-06-02

Hawking radiation is the evidence for the existence of black hole. What an observer can measure through Hawking radiation is the transmission probability. In the laboratory, miniature black holes can successfully be generated. The generated black holes are, most commonly, Myers-Perry black holes. In this paper, we will derive the rigorous bounds on the transmission probabilities for massless scalar fields of non-negative-angular-momentum modes emitted from a generated Myers-Perry black hole in six, seven, and eight dimensions. The results show that for low energy, the rigorous bounds increase with the increase in the energy of emitted particles. However, for high energy, the rigorous bounds decrease with the increase in the energy of emitted particles. When the black holes spin faster, the rigorous bounds decrease. For dimension dependence, the rigorous bounds also decrease with the increase in the number of extra dimensions. Furthermore, as comparison to the approximate transmission probability, the rigorous bound is proven to be useful.

The rigorous bound on the transmission probability for massless scalar field of non-negative-angular-momentum mode emitted from a Myers-Perry black hole

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ngampitipan, Tritos; Boonserm, Petarpa; Chatrabhuti, Auttakit; Visser, Matt

2016-01-01

Hawking radiation is the evidence for the existence of black hole. What an observer can measure through Hawking radiation is the transmission probability. In the laboratory, miniature black holes can successfully be generated. The generated black holes are, most commonly, Myers-Perry black holes. In this paper, we will derive the rigorous bounds on the transmission probabilities for massless scalar fields of non-negative-angular-momentum modes emitted from a generated Myers-Perry black hole in six, seven, and eight dimensions. The results show that for low energy, the rigorous bounds increase with the increase in the energy of emitted particles. However, for high energy, the rigorous bounds decrease with the increase in the energy of emitted particles. When the black holes spin faster, the rigorous bounds decrease. For dimension dependence, the rigorous bounds also decrease with the increase in the number of extra dimensions. Furthermore, as comparison to the approximate transmission probability, the rigorous bound is proven to be useful.

Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juliana Bueno-Soler

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.

Exploring non-signalling polytopes with negative probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oas, G; Barros, J Acacio de; Carvalhaes, C

2014-01-01

Bipartite and tripartite EPR–Bell type systems are examined via joint quasi-probability distributions where probabilities are permitted to be negative. It is shown that such distributions exist only when the no-signalling condition is satisfied. A characteristic measure, the probability mass, is introduced and, via its minimization, limits the number of quasi-distributions describing a given marginal probability distribution. The minimized probability mass is shown to be an alternative way to characterize non-local systems. Non-signalling polytopes for two to eight settings in the bipartite scenario are examined and compared to prior work. Examining perfect cloning of non-local systems within the tripartite scenario suggests defining two categories of signalling. It is seen that many properties of non-local systems can be efficiently described by quasi-probability theory. (paper)

Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

CERN Document Server

Ibe, Oliver

2005-01-01

This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections

The enigma of probability and physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayants, L.

1984-01-01

This volume contains a coherent exposition of the elements of two unique sciences: probabilistics (science of probability) and probabilistic physics (application of probabilistics to physics). Proceeding from a key methodological principle, it starts with the disclosure of the true content of probability and the interrelation between probability theory and experimental statistics. This makes is possible to introduce a proper order in all the sciences dealing with probability and, by conceiving the real content of statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics in particular, to construct both as two interconnected domains of probabilistic physics. Consistent theories of kinetics of physical transformations, decay processes, and intramolecular rearrangements are also outlined. The interrelation between the electromagnetic field, photons, and the theoretically discovered subatomic particle 'emon' is considered. Numerous internal imperfections of conventional probability theory, statistical physics, and quantum physics are exposed and removed - quantum physics no longer needs special interpretation. EPR, Bohm, and Bell paradoxes are easily resolved, among others. (Auth.)

A probability-based multi-cycle sorting method for 4D-MRI: A simulation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Xiao; Yin, Fang-Fang; Liu, Yilin; Cai, Jing

2016-12-01

To develop a novel probability-based sorting method capable of generating multiple breathing cycles of 4D-MRI images and to evaluate performance of this new method by comparing with conventional phase-based methods in terms of image quality and tumor motion measurement. Based on previous findings that breathing motion probability density function (PDF) of a single breathing cycle is dramatically different from true stabilized PDF that resulted from many breathing cycles, it is expected that a probability-based sorting method capable of generating multiple breathing cycles of 4D images may capture breathing variation information missing from conventional single-cycle sorting methods. The overall idea is to identify a few main breathing cycles (and their corresponding weightings) that can best represent the main breathing patterns of the patient and then reconstruct a set of 4D images for each of the identified main breathing cycles. This method is implemented in three steps: (1) The breathing signal is decomposed into individual breathing cycles, characterized by amplitude, and period; (2) individual breathing cycles are grouped based on amplitude and period to determine the main breathing cycles. If a group contains more than 10% of all breathing cycles in a breathing signal, it is determined as a main breathing pattern group and is represented by the average of individual breathing cycles in the group; (3) for each main breathing cycle, a set of 4D images is reconstructed using a result-driven sorting method adapted from our previous study. The probability-based sorting method was first tested on 26 patients' breathing signals to evaluate its feasibility of improving target motion PDF. The new method was subsequently tested for a sequential image acquisition scheme on the 4D digital extended cardiac torso (XCAT) phantom. Performance of the probability-based and conventional sorting methods was evaluated in terms of target volume precision and accuracy as measured

F.Y. Edgeworth’s Treatise on Probabilities

OpenAIRE

Alberto Baccini

2007-01-01

Probability theory has a central role in Edgeworth’s thought; this paper examines the philosophical foundation of the theory. Starting from a frequentist position, Edgeworth introduced some innovations on the definition of primitive probabilities. He distinguished between primitive probabilities based on experience of statistical evidence, and primitive a priori probabilities based on a more general and less precise kind of experience, inherited by the human race through evolution. Given prim...

MR-based automatic delineation of volumes of interest in human brain PET images using probability maps

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svarer, Claus; Madsen, Karina; Hasselbalch, Steen G.

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an observer-independent approach for automatic generation of volume-of-interest (VOI) brain templates to be used in emission tomography studies of the brain. The method utilizes a VOI probability map created on the basis of a database of several...... delineation of the VOI set. The approach was also shown to work equally well in individuals with pronounced cerebral atrophy. Probability-map-based automatic delineation of VOIs is a fast, objective, reproducible, and safe way to assess regional brain values from PET or SPECT scans. In addition, the method...

Path Loss, Shadow Fading, and Line-Of-Sight Probability Models for 5G Urban Macro-Cellular Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sun, Shu; Thomas, Timothy; Rappaport, Theodore S.

2015-01-01

This paper presents key parameters including the line-of-sight (LOS) probability, large-scale path loss, and shadow fading models for the design of future fifth generation (5G) wireless communication systems in urban macro-cellular (UMa) scenarios, using the data obtained from propagation...... measurements in Austin, US, and Aalborg, Denmark, at 2, 10, 18, and 38 GHz. A comparison of different LOS probability models is performed for the Aalborg environment. Both single-slope and dual-slope omnidirectional path loss models are investigated to analyze and contrast their root-mean-square (RMS) errors...

Thermal and stress analyses in thermoelectric generator with tapered and rectangular pin configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yilbas, Bekir Sami; Akhtar, S.S.; Sahin, A.Z.

2016-01-01

Thermal stress developed in thermoelectric generators is critical for long service applications. High temperature gradients, due to a large temperature difference across the junctions, causes excessive stress levels developed in the device pins and electrodes at the interfaces. In the present study, a thermoelectric generator with horizontal pin configuration is considered and thermal stress analysis in the device is presented. Ceramic wafer is considered to resemble the high temperature plate and copper electrodes are introduced at the pin junctions to reduce the electrical resistance between the pins and the high and low temperature junction plates during the operation. Finite element code is used to simulate temperature and stress fields in the thermoelectric generator. In the simulations, convection and radiation losses from the thermoelectric pins are considered and bismuth telluride pin material with and without tapering is incorporated. It is found that von Mises stress attains high values at the interface between the hot and cold junctions and the copper electrodes. Thermal stress developed in tapered pin configuration attains lower values than that of rectangular pin cross-section. - Highlights: • Different cold junction temperatures improves thermoelectric generator performance. • von Mises stress remains high across copper electrodes and hot junction ceramics. • von Mises stress reduces along pin length towards cold junction. • Pin tapering lowers stress levels in thermoelectric generator.

First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic generation of wind speed time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shamshad, A.; Bawadi, M.A.; Wan Hussin, W.M.A.; Majid, T.A.; Sanusi, S.A.M.

2005-01-01

Hourly wind speed time series data of two meteorological stations in Malaysia have been used for stochastic generation of wind speed data using the transition matrix approach of the Markov chain process. The transition probability matrices have been formed using two different approaches: the first approach involves the use of the first order transition probability matrix of a Markov chain, and the second involves the use of a second order transition probability matrix that uses the current and preceding values to describe the next wind speed value. The algorithm to generate the wind speed time series from the transition probability matrices is described. Uniform random number generators have been used for transition between successive time states and within state wind speed values. The ability of each approach to retain the statistical properties of the generated speed is compared with the observed ones. The main statistical properties used for this purpose are mean, standard deviation, median, percentiles, Weibull distribution parameters, autocorrelations and spectral density of wind speed values. The comparison of the observed wind speed and the synthetically generated ones shows that the statistical characteristics are satisfactorily preserved

Analytic results for asymmetric random walk with exponential transition probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutkowicz-Krusin, D.; Procaccia, I.; Ross, J.

1978-01-01

We present here exact analytic results for a random walk on a one-dimensional lattice with asymmetric, exponentially distributed jump probabilities. We derive the generating functions of such a walk for a perfect lattice and for a lattice with absorbing boundaries. We obtain solutions for some interesting moment properties, such as mean first passage time, drift velocity, dispersion, and branching ratio for absorption. The symmetric exponential walk is solved as a special case. The scaling of the mean first passage time with the size of the system for the exponentially distributed walk is determined by the symmetry and is independent of the range

Can Probability Maps of Swept-Source Optical Coherence Tomography Predict Visual Field Changes in Preperimetric Glaucoma?

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Won June; Kim, Young Kook; Jeoung, Jin Wook; Park, Ki Ho

2017-12-01

To determine the usefulness of swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT) probability maps in detecting locations with significant reduction in visual field (VF) sensitivity or predicting future VF changes, in patients with classically defined preperimetric glaucoma (PPG). Of 43 PPG patients, 43 eyes were followed-up on every 6 months for at least 2 years were analyzed in this longitudinal study. The patients underwent wide-field SS-OCT scanning and standard automated perimetry (SAP) at the time of enrollment. With this wide-scan protocol, probability maps originating from the corresponding thickness map and overlapped with SAP VF test points could be generated. We evaluated the vulnerable VF points with SS-OCT probability maps as well as the prevalence of locations with significant VF reduction or subsequent VF changes observed in the corresponding damaged areas of the probability maps. The vulnerable VF points were shown in superior and inferior arcuate patterns near the central fixation. In 19 of 43 PPG eyes (44.2%), significant reduction in baseline VF was detected within the areas of structural change on the SS-OCT probability maps. In 16 of 43 PPG eyes (37.2%), subsequent VF changes within the areas of SS-OCT probability map change were observed over the course of the follow-up. Structural changes on SS-OCT probability maps could detect or predict VF changes using SAP, in a considerable number of PPG eyes. Careful comparison of probability maps with SAP results could be useful in diagnosing and monitoring PPG patients in the clinical setting.

Exact solutions and symmetry analysis for the limiting probability distribution of quantum walks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Xin-Ping; Ide, Yusuke

2016-01-01

In the literature, there are numerous studies of one-dimensional discrete-time quantum walks (DTQWs) using a moving shift operator. However, there is no exact solution for the limiting probability distributions of DTQWs on cycles using a general coin or swapping shift operator. In this paper, we derive exact solutions for the limiting probability distribution of quantum walks using a general coin and swapping shift operator on cycles for the first time. Based on the exact solutions, we show how to generate symmetric quantum walks and determine the condition under which a symmetric quantum walk appears. Our results suggest that choosing various coin and initial state parameters can achieve a symmetric quantum walk. By defining a quantity to measure the variation of symmetry, deviation and mixing time of symmetric quantum walks are also investigated.

Exact solutions and symmetry analysis for the limiting probability distribution of quantum walks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Xin-Ping, E-mail: xuxp@mail.ihep.ac.cn [School of Physical Science and Technology, Soochow University, Suzhou 215006 (China); Ide, Yusuke [Department of Information Systems Creation, Faculty of Engineering, Kanagawa University, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 221-8686 (Japan)

2016-10-15

In the literature, there are numerous studies of one-dimensional discrete-time quantum walks (DTQWs) using a moving shift operator. However, there is no exact solution for the limiting probability distributions of DTQWs on cycles using a general coin or swapping shift operator. In this paper, we derive exact solutions for the limiting probability distribution of quantum walks using a general coin and swapping shift operator on cycles for the first time. Based on the exact solutions, we show how to generate symmetric quantum walks and determine the condition under which a symmetric quantum walk appears. Our results suggest that choosing various coin and initial state parameters can achieve a symmetric quantum walk. By defining a quantity to measure the variation of symmetry, deviation and mixing time of symmetric quantum walks are also investigated.

Approximation methods in probability theory

CERN Document Server

Čekanavičius, Vydas

2016-01-01

This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

Probabilistic and Nonprobabilistic Sensitivity Analyses of Uncertain Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheng-En Fang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Parameter sensitivity analyses have been widely applied to industrial problems for evaluating parameter significance, effects on responses, uncertainty influence, and so forth. In the interest of simple implementation and computational efficiency, this study has developed two sensitivity analysis methods corresponding to the situations with or without sufficient probability information. The probabilistic method is established with the aid of the stochastic response surface and the mathematical derivation proves that the coefficients of first-order items embody the parameter main effects on the response. Simultaneously, a nonprobabilistic interval analysis based method is brought forward for the circumstance when the parameter probability distributions are unknown. The two methods have been verified against a numerical beam example with their accuracy compared to that of a traditional variance-based method. The analysis results have demonstrated the reliability and accuracy of the developed methods. And their suitability for different situations has also been discussed.

Introduction to imprecise probabilities

CERN Document Server

Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

2014-01-01

In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

Classic Problems of Probability

CERN Document Server

Gorroochurn, Prakash

2012-01-01

"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

Methodology development for statistical evaluation of reactor safety analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazumdar, M.; Marshall, J.A.; Chay, S.C.; Gay, R.

1976-07-01

In February 1975, Westinghouse Electric Corporation, under contract to Electric Power Research Institute, started a one-year program to develop methodology for statistical evaluation of nuclear-safety-related engineering analyses. The objectives of the program were to develop an understanding of the relative efficiencies of various computational methods which can be used to compute probability distributions of output variables due to input parameter uncertainties in analyses of design basis events for nuclear reactors and to develop methods for obtaining reasonably accurate estimates of these probability distributions at an economically feasible level. A series of tasks was set up to accomplish these objectives. Two of the tasks were to investigate the relative efficiencies and accuracies of various Monte Carlo and analytical techniques for obtaining such estimates for a simple thermal-hydraulic problem whose output variable of interest is given in a closed-form relationship of the input variables and to repeat the above study on a thermal-hydraulic problem in which the relationship between the predicted variable and the inputs is described by a short-running computer program. The purpose of the report presented is to document the results of the investigations completed under these tasks, giving the rationale for choices of techniques and problems, and to present interim conclusions

Resource-efficient generation of linear cluster states by linear optics with postselection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uskov, D B; Alsing, P M; Fanto, M L; Szep, A; Smith, A M; Kaplan, L; Kim, R

2015-01-01

We report on theoretical research in photonic cluster-state computing. Finding optimal schemes of generating non-classical photonic states is of critical importance for this field as physically implementable photon–photon entangling operations are currently limited to measurement-assisted stochastic transformations. A critical parameter for assessing the efficiency of such transformations is the success probability of a desired measurement outcome. At present there are several experimental groups that are capable of generating multi-photon cluster states carrying more than eight qubits. Separate photonic qubits or small clusters can be fused into a single cluster state by a probabilistic optical CZ gate conditioned on simultaneous detection of all photons with 1/9 success probability for each gate. This design mechanically follows the original theoretical scheme of cluster state generation proposed more than a decade ago by Raussendorf, Browne and Briegel. The optimality of the destructive CZ gate in application to linear optical cluster state generation has not been analyzed previously. Our results reveal that this method is far from the optimal one. Employing numerical optimization we have identified that the maximal success probability of fusing n unentangled dual-rail optical qubits into a linear cluster state is equal to (1/2) n−1 ; an m-tuple of photonic Bell pair states, commonly generated via spontaneous parametric down-conversion, can be fused into a single cluster with the maximal success probability of (1/4) m−1 . (paper)

Survival probabilities of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta estimated from capture-mark-recapture data in the Mediterranean Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paolo Casale

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Survival probabilities of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta are estimated for the first time in the Mediterranean by analysing 3254 tagging and 134 re-encounter data from this region. Most of these turtles were juveniles found at sea. Re-encounters were live resightings and dead recoveries and data were analysed with Barker’s model, a modified version of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model which can combine recapture, live resighting and dead recovery data. An annual survival probability of 0.73 (CI 95% = 0.67-0.78; n=3254 was obtained, and should be considered as a conservative estimate due to an unknown, though not negligible, tag loss rate. This study makes a preliminary estimate of the survival probabilities of in-water developmental stages for the Mediterranean population of endangered loggerhead sea turtles and provides the first insights into the magnitude of the suspected human-induced mortality in the region. The model used here for the first time on sea turtles could be used to obtain survival estimates from other data sets with few or no true recaptures but with other types of re-encounter data, which are a common output of tagging programmes involving these wide-ranging animals.

Knowing where is different from knowing what: Distinct response time profiles and accuracy effects for target location, orientation, and color probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Jabar, Syaheed B; Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt

2017-11-01

When a location is cued, targets appearing at that location are detected more quickly. When a target feature is cued, targets bearing that feature are detected more quickly. These attentional cueing effects are only superficially similar. More detailed analyses find distinct temporal and accuracy profiles for the two different types of cues. This pattern parallels work with probability manipulations, where both feature and spatial probability are known to affect detection accuracy and reaction times. However, little has been done by way of comparing these effects. Are probability manipulations on space and features distinct? In a series of five experiments, we systematically varied spatial probability and feature probability along two dimensions (orientation or color). In addition, we decomposed response times into initiation and movement components. Targets appearing at the probable location were reported more quickly and more accurately regardless of whether the report was based on orientation or color. On the other hand, when either color probability or orientation probability was manipulated, response time and accuracy improvements were specific for that probable feature dimension. Decomposition of the response time benefits demonstrated that spatial probability only affected initiation times, whereas manipulations of feature probability affected both initiation and movement times. As detection was made more difficult, the two effects further diverged, with spatial probability disproportionally affecting initiation times and feature probability disproportionately affecting accuracy. In conclusion, all manipulations of probability, whether spatial or featural, affect detection. However, only feature probability affects perceptual precision, and precision effects are specific to the probable attribute.

Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

2001-01-01

Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3

Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

Science.gov (United States)

López Puga, Jorge

2014-01-01

The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

Generation unit selection via capital asset pricing model for generation planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Romy Cahyadi; K. Jo Min; Chung-Hsiao Wang; Nick Abi-Samra [College of Engineering, Ames, IA (USA)

2003-11-01

The USA's electric power industry is undergoing substantial regulatory and organizational changes. Such changes introduce substantial financial risk in generation planning. In order to incorporate the financial risk into the capital investment decision process of generation planning, this paper develops and analyses a generation unit selection process via the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). In particular, utilizing realistic data on gas-fired, coal-fired, and wind power generation units, the authors show which and how concrete steps can be taken for generation planning purposes. It is hoped that the generation unit selection process will help utilities in the area of effective and efficient generation planning when financial risks are considered. 20 refs., 14 tabs.

Standardized analyses of nuclear shipping containers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parks, C.V.; Hermann, O.W.; Petrie, L.M.; Hoffman, T.J.; Tang, J.S.; Landers, N.F.; Turner, W.D.

1983-01-01

This paper describes improved capabilities for analyses of nuclear fuel shipping containers within SCALE -- a modular code system for Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation. Criticality analysis improvements include the new KENO V, a code which contains an enhanced geometry package and a new control module which uses KENO V and allows a criticality search on optimum pitch (maximum k-effective) to be performed. The SAS2 sequence is a new shielding analysis module which couples fuel burnup, source term generation, and radial cask shielding. The SAS5 shielding sequence allows a multidimensional Monte Carlo analysis of a shipping cask with code generated biasing of the particle histories. The thermal analysis sequence (HTAS1) provides an easy-to-use tool for evaluating a shipping cask response to the accident capability of the SCALE system to provide the cask designer or evaluator with a computational system that provides the automated procedures and easy-to-understand input that leads to standarization

Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Furber

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

1996-03-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

Sensitivity of probability-of-failure estimates with respect to probability of detection curve parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garza, J. [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States); Millwater, H., E-mail: harry.millwater@utsa.edu [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States)

2012-04-15

A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.

Sensitivity of probability-of-failure estimates with respect to probability of detection curve parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garza, J.; Millwater, H.

2012-01-01

A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. ►The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. ► The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.

Live births after simultaneous avoidance of monogenic diseases and chromosome abnormality by next-generation sequencing with linkage analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Liying; Huang, Lei; Xu, Liya; Huang, Jin; Ma, Fei; Zhu, Xiaohui; Tang, Yaqiong; Liu, Mingshan; Lian, Ying; Liu, Ping; Li, Rong; Lu, Sijia; Tang, Fuchou; Qiao, Jie; Xie, X Sunney

2015-12-29

In vitro fertilization (IVF), preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), and preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) help patients to select embryos free of monogenic diseases and aneuploidy (chromosome abnormality). Next-generation sequencing (NGS) methods, while experiencing a rapid cost reduction, have improved the precision of PGD/PGS. However, the precision of PGD has been limited by the false-positive and false-negative single-nucleotide variations (SNVs), which are not acceptable in IVF and can be circumvented by linkage analyses, such as short tandem repeats or karyomapping. It is noteworthy that existing methods of detecting SNV/copy number variation (CNV) and linkage analysis often require separate procedures for the same embryo. Here we report an NGS-based PGD/PGS procedure that can simultaneously detect a single-gene disorder and aneuploidy and is capable of linkage analysis in a cost-effective way. This method, called "mutated allele revealed by sequencing with aneuploidy and linkage analyses" (MARSALA), involves multiple annealing and looping-based amplification cycles (MALBAC) for single-cell whole-genome amplification. Aneuploidy is determined by CNVs, whereas SNVs associated with the monogenic diseases are detected by PCR amplification of the MALBAC product. The false-positive and -negative SNVs are avoided by an NGS-based linkage analysis. Two healthy babies, free of the monogenic diseases of their parents, were born after such embryo selection. The monogenic diseases originated from a single base mutation on the autosome and the X-chromosome of the disease-carrying father and mother, respectively.

Determination of the failure probability in the weld region of ap-600 vessel for transient condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wahyono, I.P.

1997-01-01

Failure probability in the weld region of AP-600 vessel was determined for transient condition scenario. The type of transient is increase of the heat removal from primary cooling system due to sudden opening of safety valves or steam relief valves on the secondary cooling system or the steam generator. Temperature and pressure in the vessel was considered as the base of deterministic calculation of the stress intensity factor. Calculation of film coefficient of the convective heat transfers is a function of the transient time and water parameter. Pressure, material temperature, flaw depth and transient time are variables for the stress intensity factor. Failure probability consideration was done by using the above information in regard with the flaw and probability distributions of Octavia II and Marshall. Calculation of the failure probability by probability fracture mechanic simulation is applied on the weld region. Failure of the vessel is assumed as a failure of the weld material with one crack which stress intensity factor applied is higher than the critical stress intensity factor. VISA II code (Vessel Integrity Simulation Analysis II) was used for deterministic calculation and simulation. Failure probability of the material is 1.E-5 for Octavia II distribution and 4E-6 for marshall distribution for each transient event postulated. The failure occurred at the 1.7th menit of the initial transient under 12.53 ksi of the pressure

PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION GUICHONG LI, NATHALIE JAPKOWICZ, IAN HOFFMAN,...

Collective probabilities algorithm for surface hopping calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastida, Adolfo; Cruz, Carlos; Zuniga, Jose; Requena, Alberto

2003-01-01

General equations that transition probabilities of the hopping algorithms in surface hopping calculations must obey to assure the equality between the average quantum and classical populations are derived. These equations are solved for two particular cases. In the first it is assumed that probabilities are the same for all trajectories and that the number of hops is kept to a minimum. These assumptions specify the collective probabilities (CP) algorithm, for which the transition probabilities depend on the average populations for all trajectories. In the second case, the probabilities for each trajectory are supposed to be completely independent of the results from the other trajectories. There is, then, a unique solution of the general equations assuring that the transition probabilities are equal to the quantum population of the target state, which is referred to as the independent probabilities (IP) algorithm. The fewest switches (FS) algorithm developed by Tully is accordingly understood as an approximate hopping algorithm which takes elements from the accurate CP and IP solutions. A numerical test of all these hopping algorithms is carried out for a one-dimensional two-state problem with two avoiding crossings which shows the accuracy and computational efficiency of the collective probabilities algorithm proposed, the limitations of the FS algorithm and the similarity between the results offered by the IP algorithm and those obtained with the Ehrenfest method

Non-parametric adaptive importance sampling for the probability estimation of a launcher impact position

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morio, Jerome

2011-01-01

Importance sampling (IS) is a useful simulation technique to estimate critical probability with a better accuracy than Monte Carlo methods. It consists in generating random weighted samples from an auxiliary distribution rather than the distribution of interest. The crucial part of this algorithm is the choice of an efficient auxiliary PDF that has to be able to simulate more rare random events. The optimisation of this auxiliary distribution is often in practice very difficult. In this article, we propose to approach the IS optimal auxiliary density with non-parametric adaptive importance sampling (NAIS). We apply this technique for the probability estimation of spatial launcher impact position since it has currently become a more and more important issue in the field of aeronautics.

Foundations of the theory of probability

CERN Document Server

Kolmogorov, AN

2018-01-01

This famous little book remains a foundational text for the understanding of probability theory, important both to students beginning a serious study of probability and to historians of modern mathematics. 1956 second edition.

At least some errors are randomly generated (Freud was wrong)

Science.gov (United States)

Sellen, A. J.; Senders, J. W.

1986-01-01

An experiment was carried out to expose something about human error generating mechanisms. In the context of the experiment, an error was made when a subject pressed the wrong key on a computer keyboard or pressed no key at all in the time allotted. These might be considered, respectively, errors of substitution and errors of omission. Each of seven subjects saw a sequence of three digital numbers, made an easily learned binary judgement about each, and was to press the appropriate one of two keys. Each session consisted of 1,000 presentations of randomly permuted, fixed numbers broken into 10 blocks of 100. One of two keys should have been pressed within one second of the onset of each stimulus. These data were subjected to statistical analyses in order to probe the nature of the error generating mechanisms. Goodness of fit tests for a Poisson distribution for the number of errors per 50 trial interval and for an exponential distribution of the length of the intervals between errors were carried out. There is evidence for an endogenous mechanism that may best be described as a random error generator. Furthermore, an item analysis of the number of errors produced per stimulus suggests the existence of a second mechanism operating on task driven factors producing exogenous errors. Some errors, at least, are the result of constant probability generating mechanisms with error rate idiosyncratically determined for each subject.

Probability an introduction with statistical applications

CERN Document Server

Kinney, John J

2014-01-01

Praise for the First Edition""This is a well-written and impressively presented introduction to probability and statistics. The text throughout is highly readable, and the author makes liberal use of graphs and diagrams to clarify the theory.""  - The StatisticianThoroughly updated, Probability: An Introduction with Statistical Applications, Second Edition features a comprehensive exploration of statistical data analysis as an application of probability. The new edition provides an introduction to statistics with accessible coverage of reliability, acceptance sampling, confidence intervals, h

Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

2016-06-01

Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

Accurate step-hold tracking of smoothly varying periodic and aperiodic probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ricci, Matthew; Gallistel, Randy

2017-07-01

Subjects observing many samples from a Bernoulli distribution are able to perceive an estimate of the generating parameter. A question of fundamental importance is how the current percept-what we think the probability now is-depends on the sequence of observed samples. Answers to this question are strongly constrained by the manner in which the current percept changes in response to changes in the hidden parameter. Subjects do not update their percept trial-by-trial when the hidden probability undergoes unpredictable and unsignaled step changes; instead, they update it only intermittently in a step-hold pattern. It could be that the step-hold pattern is not essential to the perception of probability and is only an artifact of step changes in the hidden parameter. However, we now report that the step-hold pattern obtains even when the parameter varies slowly and smoothly. It obtains even when the smooth variation is periodic (sinusoidal) and perceived as such. We elaborate on a previously published theory that accounts for: (i) the quantitative properties of the step-hold update pattern; (ii) subjects' quick and accurate reporting of changes; (iii) subjects' second thoughts about previously reported changes; (iv) subjects' detection of higher-order structure in patterns of change. We also call attention to the challenges these results pose for trial-by-trial updating theories.

Transition probability spaces in loop quantum gravity

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiao-Kan

2018-03-01

We study the (generalized) transition probability spaces, in the sense of Mielnik and Cantoni, for spacetime quantum states in loop quantum gravity. First, we show that loop quantum gravity admits the structures of transition probability spaces. This is exemplified by first checking such structures in covariant quantum mechanics and then identifying the transition probability spaces in spin foam models via a simplified version of general boundary formulation. The transition probability space thus defined gives a simple way to reconstruct the discrete analog of the Hilbert space of the canonical theory and the relevant quantum logical structures. Second, we show that the transition probability space and in particular the spin foam model are 2-categories. Then we discuss how to realize in spin foam models two proposals by Crane about the mathematical structures of quantum gravity, namely, the quantum topos and causal sites. We conclude that transition probability spaces provide us with an alternative framework to understand various foundational questions of loop quantum gravity.

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Encounter Probability of Individual Wave Height

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Z.; Burcharth, H. F.

1998-01-01

wave height corresponding to a certain exceedence probability within a structure lifetime (encounter probability), based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme significant wave height. Then the design individual wave height is calculated as the expected maximum individual wave height...... associated with the design significant wave height, with the assumption that the individual wave heights follow the Rayleigh distribution. However, the exceedence probability of such a design individual wave height within the structure lifetime is unknown. The paper presents a method for the determination...... of the design individual wave height corresponding to an exceedence probability within the structure lifetime, given the long-term extreme significant wave height. The method can also be applied for estimation of the number of relatively large waves for fatigue analysis of constructions....

Calculation of Fire Severity Factors and Fire Non-Suppression Probabilities For A DOE Facility Fire PRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elicson, Tom; Harwood, Bentley; Lucek, Heather; Bouchard, Jim

2011-01-01

Over a 12 month period, a fire PRA was developed for a DOE facility using the NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC fire PRA methodology. The fire PRA modeling included calculation of fire severity factors (SFs) and fire non-suppression probabilities (PNS) for each safe shutdown (SSD) component considered in the fire PRA model. The SFs were developed by performing detailed fire modeling through a combination of CFAST fire zone model calculations and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). Component damage times and automatic fire suppression system actuation times calculated in the CFAST LHS analyses were then input to a time-dependent model of fire non-suppression probability. The fire non-suppression probability model is based on the modeling approach outlined in NUREG/CR-6850 and is supplemented with plant specific data. This paper presents the methodology used in the DOE facility fire PRA for modeling fire-induced SSD component failures and includes discussions of modeling techniques for: Development of time-dependent fire heat release rate profiles (required as input to CFAST), Calculation of fire severity factors based on CFAST detailed fire modeling, and Calculation of fire non-suppression probabilities.

Multi-scale evaluation of the environmental controls on burn probability in a southern Sierra Nevada landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Sean A. Parks; Marc-Andre Parisien; Carol Miller

2011-01-01

We examined the scale-dependent relationship between spatial fire likelihood or burn probability (BP) and some key environmental controls in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Continuous BP estimates were generated using a fire simulation model. The correspondence between BP (dependent variable) and elevation, ignition density, fuels and aspect was evaluated...

Spacetime quantum probabilities II: Relativized descriptions and Popperian propensities

Science.gov (United States)

Mugur-Schächter, M.

1992-02-01

In the first part of this work(1) we have explicated the spacetime structure of the probabilistic organization of quantum mechanics. We have shown that each quantum mechanical state, in consequence of the spacetime characteristics of the epistemic operations by which the observer produces the state to be studied and the processes of qualification of these, brings in a tree-like spacetime structure, a “quantum mechanical probability tree,” that transgresses the theory of probabilities as it now stands. In this second part we develop the general implications of these results. Starting from the lowest level of cognitive action and creating an appropriate symbolism, we construct a “relativizing epistemic syntax,” a “general method of relativized conceptualization” where—systematically—each description is explicitly referred to the epistemic operations by which the observer produces the entity to be described and obtains qualifications of it. The method generates a typology of increasingly complex relativized descriptions where the question of realism admits of a particularly clear pronouncement. Inside this typology the epistemic processes that lie—UNIVERSALLY—at the basis of any conceptualization, reveal a tree-like spacetime structure. It appears in particular that the spacetime structure of the relativized representation of a probabilistic description, which transgresses the nowadays theory of probabilities, is the general mould of which the quantum mechanical probability trees are only particular realizations. This entails a clear definition of the descriptional status of quantum mechanics. While the recognition of the universal cognitive content of the quantum mechanical formalism opens up vistas toward mathematical developments of the relativizing epistemic syntax. The relativized representation of a probabilistic description leads with inner necessity to a “morphic” interpretation of probabilities that can be regarded as a formalized and

Application of Non-Kolmogorovian Probability and Quantum Adaptive Dynamics to Unconscious Inference in Visual Perception Process

Science.gov (United States)

Accardi, Luigi; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Yamato, Ichiro

2016-07-01

Recently a novel quantum information formalism — quantum adaptive dynamics — was developed and applied to modelling of information processing by bio-systems including cognitive phenomena: from molecular biology (glucose-lactose metabolism for E.coli bacteria, epigenetic evolution) to cognition, psychology. From the foundational point of view quantum adaptive dynamics describes mutual adapting of the information states of two interacting systems (physical or biological) as well as adapting of co-observations performed by the systems. In this paper we apply this formalism to model unconscious inference: the process of transition from sensation to perception. The paper combines theory and experiment. Statistical data collected in an experimental study on recognition of a particular ambiguous figure, the Schröder stairs, support the viability of the quantum(-like) model of unconscious inference including modelling of biases generated by rotation-contexts. From the probabilistic point of view, we study (for concrete experimental data) the problem of contextuality of probability, its dependence on experimental contexts. Mathematically contextuality leads to non-Komogorovness: probability distributions generated by various rotation contexts cannot be treated in the Kolmogorovian framework. At the same time they can be embedded in a “big Kolmogorov space” as conditional probabilities. However, such a Kolmogorov space has too complex structure and the operational quantum formalism in the form of quantum adaptive dynamics simplifies the modelling essentially.