WorldWideScience

Sample records for air exchange rates

  1. Review of Air Exchange Rate Models for Air Pollution Exposure Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure assessments is estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) for various buildings, where people spend their time. The AER, which is rate the exchange of indoor air with outdoor air, is an important determinant for entry of outdoor air pol...

  2. Forecasting Foreign Currency Exchange Rates for Air Force Budgeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    performs no worse than the univariate time series models, unconstrained VAR, or candidate structural models in forecasting real exchange rates (Meese... forecast a budgeted rate for that currency for that year. The process was then repeated for each year and currency. For example, the time series ... forecasted rate MAPE against the status quo MAPE from FY06 to FY14. For example, the time series of annual FRB H.10 foreign exchange rates until

  3. Impacts of Changes of Indoor Air Pressure and Air Exchange Rate in Vapor Intrusion Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Rui; Suuberg, Eric M

    2016-02-01

    There has, in recent years, been increasing interest in understanding the transport processes of relevance in vapor intrusion of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into buildings on contaminated sites. These studies have included fate and transport modeling. Most such models have simplified the prediction of indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations by employing a steady state assumption, which often results in difficulties in reconciling these results with field measurements. This paper focuses on two major factors that may be subject to significant transients in vapor intrusion situations, including the indoor air pressure and the air exchange rate in the subject building. A three-dimensional finite element model was employed with consideration of daily and seasonal variations in these factors. From the results, the variations of indoor air pressure and air exchange rate are seen to contribute to significant variations in indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations. Depending upon the assumptions regarding the variations in these parameters, the results are only sometimes consistent with the reports of several orders of magnitude in indoor air concentration variations from field studies. The results point to the need to examine more carefully the interplay of these factors in order to quantitatively understand the variations in potential indoor air exposures.

  4. A review of air exchange rate models for air pollution exposure assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Schultz, Bradley D; Sohn, Michael D; Long, Thomas; Langstaff, John; Williams, Ronald; Isaacs, Kristin; Meng, Qing Yu; Stallings, Casson; Smith, Luther

    2014-11-01

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure assessments is estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) for various buildings where people spend their time. The AER, which is the rate of exchange of indoor air with outdoor air, is an important determinant for entry of outdoor air pollutants and for removal of indoor-emitted air pollutants. This paper presents an overview and critical analysis of the scientific literature on empirical and physically based AER models for residential and commercial buildings; the models highlighted here are feasible for exposure assessments as extensive inputs are not required. Models are included for the three types of airflows that can occur across building envelopes: leakage, natural ventilation, and mechanical ventilation. Guidance is provided to select the preferable AER model based on available data, desired temporal resolution, types of airflows, and types of buildings included in the exposure assessment. For exposure assessments with some limited building leakage or AER measurements, strategies are described to reduce AER model uncertainty. This review will facilitate the selection of AER models in support of air pollution exposure assessments.

  5. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  6. Exposure Modeling of Residential Air Exchange Rates for NEXUS Participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Due to cost and participant burden of personal measurements, air pollution health studies often estimate exposures using local ambient air monitors. Since outdoor levels do not necessarily reflect personal exposures, we developed the Exposure Model for Individuals (EMI) to improv...

  7. Experiments probing the influence of air exchange rates on secondary organic aerosols derived from indoor chemistry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weschler, Charles J.; Shields, H.C.

    2003-01-01

    Reactions between ozone and terpenes have been shown to increase the concentrations of submicron particles in indoor settings. The present study was designed to examine the influence of air exchange rates on the concentrations of these secondary organic aerosols as well as on the evolution...

  8. A Technical Basis for Employing Facility Ventilation Air Exchange Rates in the Decision to Downpost

    CERN Document Server

    Mantooth, D S

    2001-01-01

    Utilizing the ventilation exchange rate as a basis for the decision to downpost a location within a facility from an airborne radiation area (ARA) based on initial air count(DAC). Not used in the case of a confirmed or suspected contamination release.

  9. Spatiotemporally‐Resolved Air Exchange Rate as a Modifier of Acute Air Pollution‐Related Morbidity in AtlantaMorbidity in Atlanta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epidemiological studies frequently use central site concentrations as surrogates of exposure to air pollutants. Variability in air pollutant infiltration due to differential air exchange rates (AERs) is potentially a major factor affecting the relationship between central site c...

  10. Micrometeorological Measurements of Air-Surface Exchange Rates of PBTs in the Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobias, D. E.; Perlinger, J. A.; Morrow, P.

    2002-12-01

    The fate of persistent bioaccumulative toxic chemicals (PBTs) in the environment is controlled by their exchange with various aquatic and terrestrial surfaces. Many of the PBTs are semivolatile and present in the atmosphere almost entirely in the vapor phase. The rate of exchange of these vapor phase chemicals can be predicted from physicochemical properties of the chemical and the surface and the meteorological conditions during the exchange. However, field studies of the uptake of the PBTs are extremely limited or nonexistent making it difficult to evaluate the modeled transfer velocities. This presentation describes a novel method to directly measure air-surface exchange rates of PBTs above aquatic and terrestrial surfaces by the micrometeorological technique known as the modified Bowen ratio approach. Simultaneous measurements of the air temperature, water vapor content, windspeed, and the chemical species concentration at two heights above the surface are required to derive the transfer velocity of the chemical. Advanced techniques that minimize the number of sample preparation steps are required to make the two concentration measurements with adequate relative accuracy. To accomplish this task, ambient air is sampled with a multicapillary column and the analytes are directly desorbed into a high-resolution gas chromatograph for quantitation. This presentation will summarize preliminary measurements made in the near-shore region of Upper Michigan's Keweenaw Peninsula on Lake Superior during the summer of 2001 and 2002.

  11. Modified Perfluorocarbon Tracer Method for Measuring Effective Multizone Air Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masashi Gamo

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A modified procedure was developed for the measurement of the effective air exchange rate, which represents the relationship between the pollutants emitted from indoor sources and the residents’ level of exposure, by placing the dosers of tracer gas at locations that resemble indoor emission sources. To measure the 24-h-average effective air exchange rates in future surveys based on this procedure, a low-cost, easy-to-use perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT doser with a stable dosing rate was developed by using double glass vials, a needle, a polyethylene-sintered filter, and a diffusion tube. Carbon molecular sieve cartridges and carbon disulfide (CS2 were used for passive sampling and extraction of the tracer gas, respectively. Recovery efficiencies, sampling rates, and lower detection limits for 24-h sampling of hexafluorobenzene, octafluorotoluene, and perfluoroallylbenzene were 40% ± 3%, 72% ± 5%, and 84% ± 6%; 10.5 ± 1.1, 14.4 ± 1.4, and 12.2 ± 0.49 mL min−1; and 0.20, 0.17, and 0.26 μg m–3, respectively.

  12. Rating of an air-to-air heat exchanger in practice; Untersuchung eines Luft-Luft-Waermetauschers unter Praxisbedingungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roesmann, Peter; Buescher, Wolfgang [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Abt. ' ' Verfahrenstechnik der Tierischen Erzeugung' '

    2010-07-01

    Barn ventilation is often associated with heat loss. This can be regulated by using appropriate heating technology during the cold season. Air-to-air heat exchanger can be used to recover some of the heat from outlet air. Thereby the system transfers some of the heat from the outlet air to incoming fresh air by heat exchange surfaces. For objective review the DLG has multiple tested this technology on test bed. Long term investigations in practice have taken place rarely. The Institute of Agricultural Engineering, University of Bonn, therefore has tested an recuperative heat exchanger in long term study which was installed in a piglet house. (orig.)

  13. US residential building air exchange rates: new perspectives to improve decision making at vapor intrusion sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichman, Rivka; Shirazi, Elham; Colliver, Donald G; Pennell, Kelly G

    2017-02-22

    Vapor intrusion (VI) is well-known to be difficult to characterize because indoor air (IA) concentrations exhibit considerable temporal and spatial variability in homes throughout impacted communities. To overcome this and other limitations, most VI science has focused on subsurface processes; however there is a need to understand the role of aboveground processes, especially building operation, in the context of VI exposure risks. This tutorial review focuses on building air exchange rates (AERs) and provides a review of literature related building AERs to inform decision making at VI sites. Commonly referenced AER values used by VI regulators and practitioners do not account for the variability in AER values that have been published in indoor air quality studies. The information presented herein highlights that seasonal differences, short-term weather conditions, home age and air conditioning status, which are well known to influence AERs, are also likely to influence IA concentrations at VI sites. Results of a 3D VI model in combination with relevant AER values reveal that IA concentrations can vary more than one order of magnitude due to air conditioning status and one order of magnitude due to house age. Collectively, the data presented strongly support the need to consider AERs when making decisions at VI sites.

  14. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  15. Ventilation of indoor formaldehyde and estimation of its emission and air exchange rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Kun; ZHAO Qing-liang; LI Wen-pu; LI Yu-hua

    2007-01-01

    Residents living in the cold areas such as Harbin generally experience a residence time of approximately 6 months in chilly winter without frequent natural ventilation. To find out the influence of a short period of ventilation on the indoor formaldehyde concentration inside a new building, an investigation was conducted for the instance of twice ventilation in a day through window opening. The results showed that the initial concentration of formaldehyde was 3.53 - 8.48 times as high as the concentration after 10 min ventilation. After closing the window, the indoor formaldehyde concentration increased with time and followed an exponential equation of C = C0exp( - b * t) + (a + Cw) [ 1 - exp( - b * t) ] with correlation coefficient (R2) of 0. 945 -0. 999, based on the statistical analysis of 14 groups of measurement data. The developed equation can be used to estimate the emission rate of indoor formaldehyde sources and the air exchange rate of the test room simultaneously.

  16. Authentic Assessment in the Geometry Classroom: Calculating the Classroom Air-Exchange Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erich, David J.

    2002-01-01

    Introduces a room air-exchange activity designed to assess student understanding of the concept of volume. Lists materials for the activity and its procedures. Includes the lesson plan and a student worksheet. (KHR)

  17. Measurement of air exchange rates in different indoor environments using continuous CO2 sensors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan YOU; Can Niu; Jian Zhou; Yating Liu; Zhipeng Bai; Jiefeng Zhang; Fei He; Nan Zhang

    2012-01-01

    A new air exchange rate (AER) monitoring method using continuous CO2 sensors was developed and validated through both laboratory experiments and field studies.Controlled laboratory simulation tests were conducted in a 1-m3 environmental chamber at different AERs (0.1-10.0 hr-1).AERs were determined using the decay method based on box model assumptions.Field tests were conducted in classrooms,dormitories,meeting rooms and apartments during 2-5 weekdays using CO2 sensors coupled with data loggers.Indoor temperature,relative humidity (RH),and CO2 concentrations were continuously monitored while outdoor parameters combined with on-site climate conditions were recorded.Statistical results indicated that good laboratory performance was achieved:duplicate precision was within 10%,and the measured AERs were 90%-120% of the real AERs.Average AERs were 1.22,1.37,1.10,1.91 and 0.73 hr-1 in dormitories,air-conditioned classrooms,classrooms with an air circulation cooling system,reading rooms,and meeting rooms,respectively.In an elderly particulate matter exposure study,all the homes had AER values ranging from 0.29 to 3.46 hr-1 in fall,and 0.12 to 1.39 hr-1 in winter with a median AER of 1.15.

  18. Spatiotemporally-Resolved Air Exchange Rate as a Modifier of Acute Air Pollution-Related Morbidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Human Exposure and Atmospheric Sciences Division (HEASD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. HEASD research program supports Goal 1 (Clean Air) and Goal 4 (Healthy People) of EP...

  19. Air exchange rates and alternative vapor entry pathways to inform vapor intrusion exposure risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichman, Rivka; Roghani, Mohammadyousef; Willett, Evan J; Shirazi, Elham; Pennell, Kelly G

    2016-11-12

    Vapor intrusion (VI) is a term used to describe indoor air (IA) contamination that occurs due to the migration of chemical vapors in the soil and groundwater. The overall vapor transport process depends on several factors such as contaminant source characteristics, subsurface conditions, building characteristics, and general site conditions. However, the classic VI conceptual model does not adequately account for the physics of airflow around and inside a building and does not account for chemical emissions from alternative "preferential" pathways (e.g. sewers and other utility connections) into IA spaces. This mini-review provides information about recent research related to building air exchange rates (AERs) and alternative pathways to improve the accuracy of VI exposure risk assessment practices. First, results from a recently published AER study for residential homes across the United States (US) are presented and compared to AERs recommended by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). The comparison shows considerable differences in AERs when season, location, building age, and other factors are considered. These differences could directly impact VI assessments by influencing IA concentration measurements. Second, a conceptual model for sewer gas entry into buildings is presented and a summary of published field studies is reported. The results of the field studies suggest that alternative pathways for vapors to enter indoor spaces warrant consideration. Ultimately, the information presented in this mini-review can be incorporated into a multiple-lines-of-evidence approach for assessing site-specific VI exposure risks.

  20. Development and Evaluation of a New Air Exchange Rate Algorithm for the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    between-home and between-city variability in residential pollutant infiltration. This is likely a result of differences in home ventilation, or air exchange rates (AER). The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model is a population exposure model that uses a pro...

  1. Seasonal variations of indoor microbial exposures and their relation to temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Mika; Bekö, Gabriel; Timm, Michael; Gustavsen, Sine; Hansen, Erik Wind; Madsen, Anne Mette

    2012-12-01

    Indoor microbial exposure has been related to adverse pulmonary health effects. Exposure assessment is not standardized, and various factors may affect the measured exposure. The aim of this study was to investigate the seasonal variation of selected microbial exposures and their associations with temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates in Danish homes. Airborne inhalable dust was sampled in five Danish homes throughout the four seasons of 1 year (indoors, n = 127; outdoors, n = 37). Measurements included culturable fungi and bacteria, endotoxin, N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase, total inflammatory potential, particles (0.75 to 15 μm), temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates. Significant seasonal variation was found for all indoor microbial exposures, excluding endotoxin. Indoor fungi peaked in summer (median, 235 CFU/m(3)) and were lowest in winter (median, 26 CFU/m(3)). Indoor bacteria peaked in spring (median, 2,165 CFU/m(3)) and were lowest in summer (median, 240 CFU/m(3)). Concentrations of fungi were predominately higher outdoors than indoors, whereas bacteria, endotoxin, and inhalable dust concentrations were highest indoors. Bacteria and endotoxin correlated with the mass of inhalable dust and number of particles. Temperature and air exchange rates were positively associated with fungi and N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase and negatively with bacteria and the total inflammatory potential. Although temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates were significantly associated with several indoor microbial exposures, they could not fully explain the observed seasonal variations when tested in a mixed statistical model. In conclusion, the season significantly affects indoor microbial exposures, which are influenced by temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates.

  2. Gas exchange rates across the sediment-water and air-water interfaces in south San Francisco Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Blayne; Hammond, Douglas E.

    1984-01-01

    Radon 222 concentrations in the water and sedimentary columns and radon exchange rates across the sediment-water and air-water interfaces have been measured in a section of south San Francisco Bay. Two independent methods have been used to determine sediment-water exchange rates, and the annual averages of these methods agree within the uncertainty of the determinations, about 20%. The annual average of benthic fluxes from shoal areas is nearly a factor of 2 greater than fluxes from the channel areas. Fluxes from the shoal and channel areas exceed those expected from simple molecular diffusion by factors of 4 and 2, respectively, apparently due to macrofaunal irrigation. Values of the gas transfer coefficient for radon exchange across the air-water interface were determined by constructing a radon mass balance for the water column and by direct measurement using floating chambers. The chamber method appears to yield results which are too high. Transfer coefficients computed using the mass balance method range from 0.4 m/day to 1.8 m/day, with a 6-year average of 1.0 m/day. Gas exchange is linearly dependent upon wind speed over a wind speed range of 3.2–6.4 m/s, but shows no dependence upon current velocity. Gas transfer coefficients predicted from an empirical relationship between gas exchange rates and wind speed observed in lakes and the oceans are within 30% of the coefficients determined from the radon mass balance and are considerably more accurate than coefficients predicted from theoretical gas exchange models.

  3. Exchange rate regime choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of an adequate exchange rate regime proves to be a highly sensitive field within which the economic authorities present and confirm themselves. The advantages and disadvantages of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes, which have been quite relativized from the conventional point of view, together with simultaneous, but not synchronized effects of structural and external factors, remain permanently questioned throughout a complex process of exchange rate regime decision making. The paper reflects the attempt of critical identification of the key exchange rate performances with emphasis on continuous non-uniformity and (uncertainty of shelf life of a relevant choice.

  4. Development and Evaluation of a New Air Exchange Rate Algorithm for the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model (ISES Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Previous exposure assessment panel studies have observed considerable seasonal, between-home and between-city variability in residential pollutant infiltration. This is likely a result of differences in home ventilation, or air exchange rates (AER). The Stochastic Human Exposure ...

  5. Seasonal Variations of Indoor Microbial Exposures and Their Relation to Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Air Exchange Rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Mika; Bekö, Gabriel; Timm, Michael;

    2012-01-01

    inflammatory potential, particles (0.75 to 15 μm), temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates. Significant seasonal variation was found for all indoor microbial exposures, excluding endotoxin. Indoor fungi peaked in summer (median, 235 CFU/m3) and were lowest in winter (median, 26 CFU/m3). Indoor...... bacteria peaked in spring (median, 2,165 CFU/m3) and were lowest in summer (median, 240 CFU/m3). Concentrations of fungi were predominately higher outdoors than indoors, whereas bacteria, endotoxin, and inhalable dust concentrations were highest indoors. Bacteria and endotoxin correlated with the mass...

  6. Exchange Rate in Focus

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    China announced the reform of its decade-old RMB exchange rate regime last July, linking the RMB to a basket of currencies rather than the U.S. dollar alone, and allowing the RMB to appreciate 2 percent against the U.S. currency. Since then, different viewpoints on the new regime have been voiced. The People's Bank of China, the central bank, said in a statement in late March that it would further improve the system, broadening the foreign exchange market, increasing the flexibility of the RMB exchange r...

  7. Identifying Housing and Meteorological Conditions Influencing Residential Air Exchange Rates in the DEARS and RIOPA Studies: Development of Distributions for Human Exposure Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appropriate prediction of residential air exchange rate (AER) is important for estimating human exposures in the residential microenvironment, as AER drives the infiltration of outdoor-generated air pollutants indoors. AER differences among homes may result from a number of fact...

  8. Currency Exchange Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siler, Carl R.

    This curriculum unit of the Muncie (Indiana) Southside High School is to simulate the dynamics of foreign currency exchange rates from the perspectives of: (1) a major U.S. corporation, ABB Power T & D Company, Inc., of Muncie, Indiana, a manufacturer of large power transformers for the domestic and foreign markets; and (2) individual…

  9. Low air exchange rate causes high indoor radon concentration in energy-efficient buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilyev, A V; Yarmoshenko, I V; Zhukovsky, M V

    2015-06-01

    Since 1995, requirements on energy-efficient building construction were established in Russian Building Codes. In the course of time, utilisation of such technologies became prevailing, especially in multi-storey building construction. According to the results of radon survey in buildings constructed meeting new requirements on energy efficiency, radon concentration exceeds the average level in early-constructed buildings. Preponderance of the diffusion mechanism of radon entry in modern multi-storey buildings has been experimentally established. The experimental technique of the assessment of ventilation rate in dwellings under real conditions was developed. Based on estimates of average ventilation rate, it was approved that measures to increase energy efficiency lead to reduction in ventilation rate and accumulation of higher radon concentrations indoors. Obtained ventilation rate values have to be considered as extremely low.

  10. Rating of an air-to-air tube-type heat exchanger in a piglet house; Energetische Untersuchung eines Luft-Luft-Rohrwaermetauschers in einem Ferkelaufzuchtstall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roesmann, Peter; Boge, Henrich; Buescher, Wolfgang [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Abt. ' ' Verfahrenstechnik in der Tierischen Erzeugung' '

    2011-07-01

    Due to the high temperature requirements of weaners, especially in the winter months, there is high energy consumption for rearing piglets. Furthermore the economic trend shows increasing energy costs. Thus, it is necessary, inter alia, to evaluate particular technologies to minimize the demand of energy consumption in order to reduce the costs. Air-to-air tube-type heat exchanger offers a convective transmission of heat from waste air to inlet air by using a specific airflow-control-system. Above all the heat energy can be decreased due to the warmed up inlet air which leads to an amplitude attenuation especially in the winter months. The Institute of Agricultural Engineering from the University of Bonn has examined the air-to-air tube-type heat exchanger of the Moeller GmbH company for the purpose of acquiring representative data of this regenerative technology. (orig.)

  11. Theory and Experiment on the Measurement of Kinetic Rate Constants for Surfactant Exchange at an Air/Water Interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan; Green; Maldarelli

    1998-09-15

    The paper focuses on the measurement of the rate constants for the kinetic steps of adsorption and desorption of surfactant between an air/water surface and the aqueous bulk sublayer adjacent to the surface. Kinetic constants are determined in nonequilibrium experiments in which either a clean surface is contacted with a bulk solution and surfactant diffuses toward and adsorbs onto the interface, or the area of an established monolayer in equilibrium with an underlying solution is changed, and surfactant exchanges between the surface and bulk. The dynamic tension change due to the surfactant exchange is measured, and compared to predictions of kinetic-diffusive transport models in order to infer the kinetic coefficients as well the diffusion coefficients. Model comparisons for highly surface active surfactants have resolved only the diffusion coefficient as the transport was found to be diffusion controlled; kinetic constants have only been established for less active materials such as alcohols or bolaform surfactants. In this study, we demonstrate that kinetics can be differentiated from diffusion in clean interface adsorption and re-equilibration if high bulk concentrations of the surfactant are used, or in re-equilibration, if the surface is compressed sufficiently. We first establish theoretically that mass transfer shifts from diffusion-limited to mixed as the bulk concentration increases in clean interface adsorption, or the surface compression is increased in re-equilibration. We then experimentally verify this idea by using the polyethoxylated surfactant C12E6 (C12H25 (OCH2CH2)6-OH) and by measuring dynamic surface tensions in clean interface adsorption and re-equilibration, respectively by the shape analysis of pendant bubbles. We find values of 6 x 10(-10) m2/s for the diffusion coefficient, and 1.4 x 10(-5) m/sec and 1.4 x 10(-4) s-1 for the adsorption and desorption rate constants, respectively, in a Frumkin kinetic formulation. While the adsorption

  12. Indoor air quality, air exchange rates, and radioactivity in new built temporary houses following the Great East Japan Earthquake in Minamisoma, Fukushima.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, N; Tokumura, M; Kazama, M; Yoshino, H; Ochiai, S; Mizukoshi, A

    2013-08-01

    This study measured air exchange rates, indoor concentrations of aldehydes and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and radioactivity levels at 19 temporary houses in different temporary housing estate constructed in Minamisoma City following the Great East Japan Earthquake. The 19 surveyed houses represented all of the companies assigned to construct temporary houses in that Minamisoma City. Data were collected shortly after construction and before occupation, from August 2011 to January 2012. Mean air exchange rates in the temporary houses were 0.28/h, with no variation according to housing types and construction date. Mean indoor concentrations of formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, toluene, ethylbenzene, m/p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, p-dichlorobenzene, tetradecane, and total VOCs (TVOCs) were 29.2, 72.7, 14.6, 6.35, 3.05, 1.81, 7.29, 14.3, 8.32, and 901 μg/m(3), respectively. The levels of acetaldehyde and TVOCs exceeded the indoor guideline (48 μg/m(3)) and interim target (400 μg/m(3)) in more than half of the 31 rooms tested. In addition to guideline chemicals, terpenes (α-pinene and d-limonene) and acetic esters (butyl acetate and ethyl acetate) were often detected in these houses. The indoor radiation levels measured by a Geiger-Müller tube (Mean: 0.22 μSv/h) were lower than those recorded outdoors (Mean: 0.42 μSv/h), although the shielding effect of the houses was less than for other types of buildings.

  13. Real Exchange Rate Targets, Nominal Exchange Rate Policies, and Inflation Real Exchange Rate Targets, Nominal Exchange Rate Policies, and Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Saúl Lizondo

    1991-03-01

    Full Text Available Real Exchange Rate Targets, Nominal Exchange Rate Policies, and Inflation Thh paper examines the implications of some nominal exchange rate policies aimed or attaining a given real exchange rate target. A policy rule that sets the rate of nominal depreciation as a function of the departures of the real exchange rate from its target level is unable to achieve the target. In contrast, a policv rule that sets the change in the rate of depreciation as a function of those departures may lead the economy to the target, under certain conditions. However, this policy could also lead the economy to a process of accelerating inflation.

  14. The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Francis Vitek

    2005-01-01

    We survey and update the empirical literature concerning the predictability of nominal exchange rates using structural macroeconomic models over the recent floating exchange rate period. In particular, we consider both flexible and sticky price versions of the monetary model of nominal exchange rate determination. In agreement with the existing empirical literature, we find that nominal exchange rate movements are difficult to forecast, with a random walk generally dominating the monetary mod...

  15. EXCHANGE RATE - REGIMES AND POLICIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novak Lučić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate of one currency is the price of the currency expressed in units of other currency. It is formed by the interaction of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. Given that the exchange rate has a direct impact on the competitiveness of a country in terms of features of its exports and imports, in its balance of payments, and indirectly the overall economic and social development, in addition to acting in market principles - supply and demand in the formation of the equilibrium exchange rate, exchange rate is subject to different, stronger or weaker, more or less, forms of intervention. In the search for the optimal exchange rate policy of the national currency, the monetary authorities are positioned between the two extremes - the complete abandonment of the exchange rate to the market laws of supply and demand, or fixing the exchange rate for any of the selected anchor currency.

  16. Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regime

    OpenAIRE

    Kanda Naknoi

    2005-01-01

    This paper, empirically and theoretically, studies variance decomposition of real exchange rate. We find that deviations from the law of one price for traded goods drive most real exchange rates. However, the relative price of nontraded goods is also important for some countries maintaining stable exchange rate. We propose an explanation based on dynamics of comparative advantage. Our model predicts that comovement of terms of trade and productivity differentials of the nontraded and the expo...

  17. Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Louis Combes; Patrick Plane; Tidiane Kinda

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of capital inflows and exchange rate flexibility on the real exchange rate in developing countries based on panel cointegration techniques. The results show that public and private flows are associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. Among private flows, portfolio investment has the highest appreciation effect-almost seven times that of foreign direct investment or bank loans-and private transfers have the lowest effect. Using a de facto measure of excha...

  18. Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Michael W. Klein; Jay C. Shambaugh

    2004-01-01

    A classic argument for a fixed exchange rate is its promotion of trade. Empirical support for this, however, is mixed. While one branch of research consistently shows a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade, another, more recent, branch presents evidence of a large positive impact of currency unions on trade. This paper helps resolve this disconnect. Our results, which use a new data-based classification of fixed exchange rate regimes, show a large, significant effect of ...

  19. Exchange Rates, Innovations and Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Wolff, Christian C

    1987-01-01

    In this paper an ex-post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the "news" model of exchange rate determination. A general finding is that the "news" formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex post exchange rate forecasts. Often the results compare favourably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule. Thus, the evidence presented in this paper supports the argument that the 1983 finding by Meese and Rogoff (that...

  20. Exchange Rate Predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Yablonskyy, Karen

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to analyze the foreign exchange currency forecasting techniques. Moreover the central idea behind the topic is to develop the strategy of forecasting by choosing indicators and techniques to make own forecast on currency pair EUR/USD. This thesis work is a mixture of theory and practice analyses. The goal during the work on this project was to study different types of forecasting techniques and make own forecast, practice forecasting and trading on Forex platform, ba...

  1. Exchange Rates and Old People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowd, James J.

    1980-01-01

    Extends earlier work on aging as a process of exchange by focusing on the issue of exchange rates and how they are negotiated. Access to power resources declines with age, placing the old person in the position of negotiating from weakness. (Author)

  2. Yuan Exchange Rate 'Properly Adjusted'

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

      The currency exchange rate was "properly adjusted" this year and takes into account effects on the country's neighbors and the world, Premier Wen Jiabao said at a regional meeting in Malaysia.……

  3. Measurements of VOC/SVOC emission factors from burning incenses in an environmental test chamber: influence of temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoukian, A; Buiron, D; Temime-Roussel, B; Wortham, H; Quivet, E

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the influence of three environmental indoor parameters (i.e., temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rate) on the emission of 13 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) during incense burning. Experiments have been carried out using an environmental test chamber. Statistical results from a classical two-level full factorial design highlight the predominant effect of ventilation on emission factors. The higher the ventilation, the higher the emission factor. Moreover, thanks to these results, an estimation of the concentration range for the compounds under study can be calculated and allows a quick look of indoor pollution induced by incense combustion. Carcinogenic substances (i.e., benzene, benzo(a)pyrene, and formaldehyde) produced from the incense combustion would be predicted in typical living indoors conditions to reach instantaneous concentration levels close to or higher than air quality exposure threshold values.

  4. On forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility.

    OpenAIRE

    Hafner, Christian

    2003-01-01

    In an efficient market, foreign exchange rates have to guarantee absence of triangular arbitrage. This note shows that the no-arbitrage condition can be exploited for forecasting the volatility of a single rate by using the information contained in the other rates. Linearly transforming the volatility forecasts of a bivariate model is shown to be more efficient than using a univariate model for the cross-rate.

  5. Evaluating China's Exchange Rate Regime

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Charlie Xiao Feng

    2008-01-01

    @@ In 1994 China established a de facto currency peg.1 The dollar-RMB exchange rate was fixed at 8.28.The People's Bank of China(PBC) allowed the rate a narrow band of around .01 to .02 percent in which it could shift daily.The exchange rate program did not become newsworthy until U.S.Treasury Secretary John Snow's visit in 2003.In fact as a study by Frankel and Wei (2007)showed, the RMB's forward was actually selling at a discount against the dollar prior to Secretary Snow's visit to China and his subsequent report, signaling that investors were anticipating RMB depreciation.

  6. Nominal exchange rate flexibility and real exchange rate adjustment : evidence from dual exchange rates in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Cheung, Yin-Wong; Lai, Kon-Sun

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates whether exchange rate flexibility aids real exchange rate adjustment based on intra-period data on dual exchange rates from developing countries. Specifically, it analyzes whether the flexible parallel market rate produces faster or slower real exchange rate adjustment than the much less flexible official rate does. Half-life estimates of adjustment speeds are obtained using fractional time series analysis. We find no systematic evidence that greater exchange rate flex...

  7. Diurnal and seasonal variation in air exchange rates and interzonal airflows measured by active and passive tracer gas in homes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bekö, Gabriel; Gustavsen, Sine; Frederiksen, Marie

    2016-01-01

    studied the pollutant distribution from one room (source room) and interzonal airflows across the dwellings. The air within a given floor was well mixed, with the average tracer gas concentration in the non-source rooms reaching approximately 70% of the source room concentration. There was less air...... movement between different floors. The position of the internal doors had a strong influence on the air movement....

  8. Diurnal and seasonal variation in air exchange rates and interzonal flows measured by active tracer gas in five Danish homes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Geo; Bekö, Gabriel; Toftum, Jørn

    2016-01-01

    and airflows between rooms. AERs changed rapidly during the day and differed between rooms. Occupant behavior (window opening) strongly influenced the AERs. AERs were highest in the summer, lowest in the winter. Interzonal airflow measurements indicated that the air within a given floor is well mixed, while...... there is less air movement between different floors. The position of the internal doors (open/closed) had a strong influence on the air movements within the dwelling....

  9. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  10. Assessment of organic compound exposures, thermal comfort parameters, and HVAC system-driven air exchange rates in public school portable classrooms in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shendell, Derek Garth [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2003-01-01

    The prevalence of prefabricated, portable classrooms (portables, relocatables, RCs) has increased due to class size reduction initiatives and limited resources. Classroom mechanical wall-mount heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems may function improperly or not be maintained; lower ventilation rates may impact indoor air and environmental quality (IEQ). Materials in portables may off-gas volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including formaldehyde, as a function of age, temperature, and humidity. For a pilot study, public K-12 schools located in or serving target areas within five Los Angeles County communities were identified. In two communities where school districts (SD) consented, 1-3 randomly selected portables, one newer and one older, and one main building control classroom from each participating school were included. Sampling was conducted over a five-day school week in the cooling and heating seasons, or repeated twice in the cooling season. Measurements included passive samplers for VOCs, formaldehyde and acetaldehyde, and air exchange rate (AER) calculation; indoor air temperature and humidity; technician walk-through surveys; an interview questionnaire above HVAC system operation and maintenance (O and M). For an intervention study evaluating advanced HVAC technologies in comparison to the common conventional technology, and materials for source reduction of VOCs, four RC were manufactured and located in pairs at two schools in two recruited Northern California SD in different climate zones. RCs were built with the two HVAC systems, cabinetry and conduit for monitoring equipment, and standard or advanced interior finish materials. Each RC was its own control in a case-crossover design--HVAC systems alternately operated for 1-2 week intervals in the 2001-02 school year, with IEQ monitoring including aldehyde and indoor air temperature and humidity data. Measured classroom AER were low, formaldehyde concentrations were below the state

  11. Value-Added Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Rudolfs Bems; Robert C. Johnson

    2012-01-01

    This paper updates the conceptual foundations for measuring real effective exchange rates (REERs) to allow for vertical specialization in trade. We derive a value-added REER describing how demand for the value added that a country produces changes as the price of its value added changes relative to competitors. We then compute this index for 42 countries from 1970-2009 using trade measured in value added terms and GDP deflators. There are substantial differences between value-added and conven...

  12. Exchange Rate Volatility in BRICS Countries

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    This paper measures the impact of bilateral exchange rates, the world agricultural GDP and third-country exchange rate volatilities (Yen/USD and Euro/USD) on the BRICS agricultural exports using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Two measures of volatility are used: the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation of the rates of change of the real exchange rates. We found that most variables are integrated of order two except the third-country exchange rate volatilities which are st...

  13. Exchange rate rebounds after foreign exchange market interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshikawa, Takeshi

    2017-03-01

    This study examined the rebounds in the exchange rate after foreign exchange intervention. When intervention is strongly effective, the exchange rate rebounds at next day. The effect of intervention is reduced slightly by the rebound after the intervention. The exchange rate might have been 67.12-77.47 yen to a US dollar without yen-selling/dollar-purchasing intervention of 74,691,100 million yen implemented by the Japanese government since 1991, in comparison to the actual exchange rate was 103.19 yen to the US dollar at the end of March 2014.

  14. Modeling Spatial and Temporal Variability of Residential Air Exchange Rates for the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air pollution health studies often use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates. Failure to account for variability of residential infiltration of outdoor pollutants can induce exposure errors and lead to bias and incorrect confidence intervals in health effect estimates. Th...

  15. The RMB Exchange Rate Keeps Increasing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ In July 2005, the People's Bank of China officially announced that it would adopt a manageable floating exchange rate, adjusted according to a basket of currencies based on market supply and demand. On that day, the exchange rate of the RMB to the U.S. Dollar increased by 21 percent, and since then the RMB exchange rate has gradually turned to a more flexible exchange rate convention, rather than focusing on the Dollar only.

  16. Net carbon dioxide exchange rates and predicted growth patterns in Alstroemeria Jacqueline' at varying irradiances, carbon dioxide concentrations, and air temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leonardos, E.D.; Tsujita, M.J.; Grodzinski, B. (Univ. of Guelph, Ontario (Canada). Dept. of Horticultural Science)

    1994-11-01

    The influence of irradiance, CO[sub 2] concentration, and air temperature on leaf and whole-plant net C exchange rate (NCER) of Alstroemeria Jacqueline' was studied. At ambient CO[sub 2], leaf net photosynthesis was maximum at irradiances above 600 [mu]mol[center dot]m[sup [minus]2][center dot]s[sup [minus]1] photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), while whole-plant NCER required 1,200 [mu]mol[center dot]m[sup [minus]2][center dot]s[sup [minus]1] PAR to be saturated. Leaf and whole-plant NCERs were doubled under CO[sub 2] enrichment of 1,500 to 2,000 [mu]l CO[sub 2]/liter. Leaf and whole-plant NCERs declined as temperature increased from 20 to 35 C. Whereas the optimum temperature range for leaf net photosynthesis was 17 to 23 C, whole-plant NCER, even at high light and high CO[sub 2], declined above 12 C. Dark respiration of leaves and whole plants increased with a Q[sub 10] of [approx] 2 at 15 to 35 C. In an analysis of day effects, irradiance, CO[sub 2] concentration, and temperature contributed 58%, 23%, and 14%, respectively, to the total variation in NCER explained by a second-order polynomial model (R[sup 2] = 0.85). Interactions among the factors accounted for 4% of the variation in day C assimilation. The potential whole-plant growth rates during varying greenhouse day and night temperature regimes were predicted for short- and long-day scenarios. The data are discussed with the view of designing experiments to test the importance of C gain in supporting flowering and high yield during routine harvest of Alstroemeria plants under commercial greenhouse conditions.

  17. The determinants of exchange rate in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel BENAZIC

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The dilemma for every country with an independent monetary policy is which kind of exchange rate arrangement should be applied. Through the exchange rate policy, countries can influence their economies, i.e. price stability and export competiveness. Croatia is a new EU member state, it has its own monetary policy and currency but it is on the way to euro introduction. Regarding the experiences from the beginning of the 1990s when Croatia was faced with serious monetary instabilities and hyperinflation, the goal of Croatian National Bank (CNB is to ensure price stability and one way to do so is through exchange rate policy. Croatia, as a small and open economy, has applied a managed floating exchange rate regime. The exchange rate is determined primarily by the foreign exchange supply and demand on the foreign exchange market, with occasional market interventions by the CNB. Therefore, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, policymakers must be able to recognize how changes in these factors affect changes in the exchange rate. This research aims to find a relationship among the main sources of foreign currency inflow and outflow and the level of exchange rate in Croatia. The analysis is carried out by using the bounds testing (ARDL approach for co-integration. The results indicate the existence of a stable co-integration relationship between the observed variables, whereby an increase in the majority of variables leads to an exchange rate appreciation.

  18. Development and benefits of air/air-heat exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kessel, H.W.; Cremer, P.

    1986-02-01

    After the first experiments using glass tube heat exchangers, many air/air heat exchangers have made within ten years the breakthrough as ''interior climate improvers'' in stables. Especially inexpensive synthetic panels, foils and self-construction, ribbed heat exchangers are very popular among farmers. Based on thorough installation planning and satisfactory operating results, thousands of heat exchangers were installed, through which heating oil and fuel gas are being replaced as energy sources, and through an improved interior climate, the productivity can be optimized in fattening and rearing houses. (orig.).

  19. Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Long Run Properties of Real Exchange Rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Dreger, Christian; Girardin, Eric

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines whether the behaviour of the real exchange rate is associated with a particular regime for the nominal exchange rate, like fixed and flexible exchange rate arrangements. The analysis is based on 16 annual real exchange rates and covers a long time span, 1870-2006. Four subperiods are distinguished and linked to exchange rate regimes: the Gold Standard, the interwar float, the Bretton Woods system and the managed float thereafter. Panel integration techniques are applied to...

  20. Photoautotrophic Growth and Net Photosynthetic Rate of Sweet Potato Plantlets In Vitro as Affected by the Number of Air Exchanges of the Vessel and Type of Supporting Material

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIAO Yulan; Kozai Toyoki

    2006-01-01

    To produce high-quality sweet potato plantlets rapidly at low production costs, single nodal leafy cuttings of sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas (L.) Lam.) plantlets were cultured in vitro for 14 days on sugar- and phytohormone-free Murashige and Skoog (MS) liquid medium, at a photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) of 200 μmol·m-2·s-1 and a CO2 concentration (v/v) of 1.8×10-3. A factorial experiment was conducted with two levels of the number of air exchanges of the vessel (NAE), 8.7-12.2 h-1 and >12.2 h-1, and two types of supporting material, vermiculite and Florialite (a porous material). The control treatment consisted of a photomixotrophic culture using a sugar- and NAA-containing agar MS medium with an NAE of 2.4 h-1. PPF and CO2 concentrations were the same as the photoautotrophic treatments. In comparison with the control treatment, the photoautotrophic treatments with NAE of 8.7-12.2 h-1 (MF treatment) and ≥12.2 h-1 (HF treatment) were, respectively, 2.2 and 2.8 times in dry weight, and 3.7 and 4.2 times in net photosynthetic rate, when Florialite was used. The survival percentages of the plantlets in the field were, respectively, 86% and 97% in the MF and HF treatments, and 35% and 46% higher than that in the control treatment. The plantlets cultured with Florialite showed greater growth, compared with those cultured with vermiculite. Photoautotrophic micropropagation system with high NAE and the use of porous supporting material can produce high-quality plantlets and make it possible to reduce production costs.

  1. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Kouwenberg, Roy; Markiewicz, Agnieszka; Verhoeks, Ralph; Zwinkels, Remco

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a theoretical framework of exchange rate behavior where investors focus on a subset of economic fundamentals. We find that any adjustment in the set of predictors used by investors leads to changes in the relation between the exchange rate and fundamentals. We test the validity of this framework via a backward elimination rule which captures the current set of fundamentals that best predicts the exchange rate. Out-of-sample forecasting tests show that the backward elimi...

  2. Market Sentiment and Exchange Rate Directional Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Vasilios Plakandaras; Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Konstantinos Diamantaras

    2014-01-01

    The microstructural approach to the exchange rate market claims that order flows on a currency can accurately reflect the short-run dynamics its exchange rate. In this paper, instead of focusing on order flows analysis we employ an alternative microstructural approach: we focus on investors' sentiment on a given exchange rate as a possible predictor of its future evolution. As a proxy of investors' sentiment we use StockTwits posts, a message board dedicated to finance. Within StockTwits inve...

  3. Evaluating benchmarks for Norwegian exchange rate forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Adrik, Samir

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting abilities of three fundamental exchange rate models (EqCM) against the random walk (without drift), RW. The objective of the thesis is to see how well the RW model preforms against fundamental exchange rate models that in the literature have proven to be better at forecasting the Norwegian exchange rate. These models were tested on an out-of-sample period (2009:1-2015:4) that include two characteristic exchange rate regimes. The models ...

  4. Exchange Rate Policy and Endogenous Price Flexibility

    OpenAIRE

    Devereux, Michael B.

    2004-01-01

    A fixed exchange rate limits the ability of the real exchange rate to adjust to shocks, and tends to raise the volatility of real GDP. But adjustment may be enhanced if internal prices are more flexible under a fixed exchange rate. This Paper develops a model in which price setters incur a cost to retain the option of ex-post price flexibility. The benefit of flexibility is increasing in the variance of demand facing price-setters. We ask whether fixing the exchange rate is likely to increase...

  5. Choice of exchange rate regimes for African countries: Fixed or Flexible Exchange rate regimes?

    OpenAIRE

    Simwaka, Kisu

    2010-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime has been a subject of ongoing debate in international economics. The majority of African countries are small open economies and thus where the choice of the exchange rate regime is an important policy issue. Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country’s relative level of economic health. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched analyzed and ...

  6. The tail index of exchange rate returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.G. Koedijk (Kees); M. Schafgans (Marcia); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractIn the literature on the empirical distribution of foreign exchange rates there is now consensus that exchange rate yields are fat-tailed. Three problems, however, persist: (1) Which class of distribution functions is most appropriate? (2) Are the parameters of the distribution invariant

  7. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy); A. Markiewicz (Agnieszka); R. Verhoeks (Ralph); R.C.J. Zwinkels (Remco)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a theoretical framework of exchange rate behavior where investors focus on a subset of economic fundamentals. We find that any adjustment in the set of predictors used by investors leads to changes in the relation between the exchange rate and fundamentals. We test the validit

  8. Modeling And Forecasting Exchange-Rate Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Andreou, A. S.; Zombanakis, George A.; Likothanassis, S. D.; Georgakopoulos, E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper considers the extent to which the application of neural networks methodology can be used in order to forecast exchange-rate shocks. Four major foreign currency exchange rates against the Greek Drachma as well as the overnight interest rate in the Greek market are employed in an attempt to predict the extent to which the local currency may be suffering an attack. The forecasting is extended to the estimation of future exchange rates and interest rates. The MLP proved to be highly ...

  9. Exchange rate regimes and monetary arrangements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ribnikar

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available There is a close relationship between a country’s exchange rate regime and monetary arrangement and if we are to examine monetary arrangements then exchange rate regimes must first be analysed. Within the conventional and most widely used classification of exchange rate regimes into rigid and flexible or into polar regimes (hard peg and float on one side, and intermediate regimes on the other there, is a much greater variety among intermediate regimes. A more precise and, as will be seen, more useful classification of exchange rate regimes is the first topic of the paper. The second topic is how exchange rate regimes influence or determine monetary arrangements and monetary policy or monetary policy regimes: monetary autonomy versus monetary nonautonomy and discretion in monetary policy versus commitment in monetary policy. Both topics are important for countries on their path to the EU and the euro area

  10. Is a more stable exchange rate associated with reduced exchange rate pass-through?

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    Pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices is modelled within a regime-switching environment. Evidence suggests that exchange rate pass through can be characterised as regime-specific where the probability of switching between regimes is influenced by the extent of exchange rate volatility.

  11. Apparent exchange rate mapping with diffusion MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasič, Samo; Nilsson, Markus; Lätt, Jimmy; Ståhlberg, Freddy; Topgaard, Daniel

    2011-08-01

    Water exchange through the cell membranes is an important feature of cells and tissues. The rate of exchange is determined by factors such as membrane lipid composition and organization, as well as the type and activity of aquaporins. A method for noninvasively estimating the rate of water exchange would be useful for characterizing pathological conditions, e.g., tumors, multiple sclerosis, and ischemic stroke, expected to be associated with a change of the membrane barrier properties. This study describes the filter exchange imaging method for determining the rate of water exchange between sites having different apparent diffusion coefficients. The method is based on the filter-exchange pulsed gradient spin-echo NMR spectroscopy experiment, which is here modified to be compatible with the constraints of clinical MR scanners. The data is analyzed using a model-free approach yielding maps of the apparent exchange rate, here being introduced in analogy with the concept of the apparent diffusion coefficient. Proof-of-principle experiments are performed on microimaging and whole-body clinical scanners using yeast suspension phantoms. The limitations and appropriate experimental conditions are examined. The results demonstrate that filter exchange imaging is a fast and reliable method for characterizing exchange, and that it has the potential to become a powerful diagnostic tool.

  12. Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Andreou, Andreas S.; Zombanakis, George A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper applies computational intelligence methods to exchange rate forecasting. In particular, it employs neural network methodology in order to predict developments of the Euro exchange rate versus the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Following a study of our series using traditional as well as specialized, non-parametric methods together with Monte Carlo simulations we employ selected Neural Networks (NNs) trained to forecast rate fluctuations. Despite the fact that the data series hav...

  13. Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Charles Engel; Nelson C. Mark; Kenneth D. West

    2012-01-01

    We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate processes. We apply the technique to a panel of bilateral U.S. dollar rates against 17 OECD countries. We forecast using factors, and using factors combined with any of fundamentals suggested by Taylor r...

  14. RMB Exchange Rate Reform: Past and Future

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Zhen

    2009-01-01

    @@ With the deepening of China's financial reform, economic development and the enforcement of market roles, the RMB exchange rate needs to become more flexible and become a more sensitive reflection of the changes in market supply and demand. Under such circumstances, on July 21, the People's Bank of China announced that the previous system where China's RMB was pegged to the U.S. Dollar would be changed to include a basket of foreign currencies, shifting China's exchange rate system into a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand.

  15. Exchange Rate Forecasting with Information Flow Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Mačerinskienė

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to assess exchange rate forecasting possibilities with an information flow approach model. In the model the three types of information flows are distinguished: fundamental analysis information flow through particular macroeconomic determinants, microstructure approach information flow through dealer clients’ positioning data, technical analysis information flow through technical indicators. By using regression analysis it is shown that the composed model can forecast the exchange rate, the most significant information flows are distinguished. The results lead to further development of the information flow approach as a tool to forecast exchange rate fluctuations.

  16. Fiscal deficits, exchange rate crises and inflation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1991-01-01

    This article extends earlier work on unsustainable monetary policies by endogenizing the regime switch that ultimately restores sustainability. Within this framework we analyze exchange rate based stabilization programs and shows how constraints on Central Bank borrowing during an exchange crisis in

  17. Exchange rate regimes and external financial stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stoica Ovidiu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Financial stability within the framework of the global financial crisis has become a common topic for researchers and practitioners. In order to analyse the impact of exchange rate regimes on financial stability we use both the de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications. We apply the model to a 1999-2010 annual data sample for 135 countries and territories, grouped by the level of economic development. Our second focus is the investigation of the effects of the exchange rate regimes in three economic integration areas (member countries of the European Union 27, the Southern Common Market, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on financial stability. Our results generally support the central banks’ concerns that the flexibility of exchange rate regimes should be reduced in order to sustain financial stability; however, the findings are not robust when using alternative regime classifications.

  18. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... theoretical contributions to the litterature on pricing-to-market and exchange rate pass-through....

  19. Adoption and Abandonment of Dual Exchange Rate Systems Adoption and Abandonment of Dual Exchange Rate Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Saul Lizondo

    1990-03-01

    Full Text Available Adoption and Abandonment of Dual Exchange Rate Systems When facing persistent balance of payments problems, some countries have resorted to a dual exchange rate system as an alternative to a uniform exchange rate adjustment. Typically, under the dual system, certain selected transactions take place at a fixed official exchange rate, while there remaining transactions are effected at a more depreciated rate, which is usually determined by market forces. This paper examines the circumstances that lead to the adoption of a dual system, and the conditions under which the foreign exchange market can be unified successfully or a later stage. In this paper, the adoption of the dual system is linked to the unsustainability of a crawling peg (or a fixed exchange rate system in the presence of large budgret deficits. We show that the initiai spiral between the financial at the commercial exchange rates and the extent of capital flight largely depends on whether the switch in regime is anticipated or unanticipated. Although the dual system improves the external position of the economy, to the extent that there is no change in domestic noticies the country will continue to experience a deficit in the balance of payments. A correction of these policies is the only enduring solution to the external imbalance, and a precondition for a successful unification of the foreirg exchange market. If the economv unifies the foreign exchange market into a crawling peg, the financial exchahnge rate could be an adequate indicator of the initlal level of which the new exchange rate should be set if a capital outflow is to be avoided. If the economy instead moves to a flexible exchange rate system, the initial value of the exchange rate could be higher or lower than the prevailing financial exchange rate.

  20. DOES CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AFFECT EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hisao Kumamoto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of the degree of currency substitution on nominal exchange rate volatility in seven countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Argentina, and Peru. We use the Threshold ARCH model to consider the ratchet effect of currency substitution and sample periods in the 2000s, during which time the economies of the sample countries stabilized, while the U.S. dollar and euro depreciated against other major currencies following the recent global financial crisis. The presented empirical analyses show that the degree of currency substitution has significant positive effects on the conditional variance of the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate in most sample countries. Moreover, a shock to the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate has asymmetric effects on the conditional variance, depending on the sign. One possible explanation for these differential effects is the existence of the ratchet effect of currency substitution.

  1. Bretton Woods Fixed Exchange Rate System versus Floating Exchange Rate System

    OpenAIRE

    Geza, Paula; Giurca Vasilescu, Laura

    2011-01-01

    One of the most important issues of monetary policy is to find out whether the state should intervene among the exchange rates, taking into account the fact that changes in the exchange rates represent a significant transmission channel of the effects generated by the monetary policy. Taking into consideration the failure of fixed exchange rate regimes and the recent improvement of financial markets, the return in the near future to such a regime – as for example the Bretton Woods system –...

  2. Exchange Rate Determination and Forecasting: Can the Microstructure Approach Rescue Us from the Exchange Rate Disparity?

    OpenAIRE

    Guangfeng Zhang; Qiong Zhang; Muhammad Tariq Majeed

    2013-01-01

    Using two measures of private information and high-frequency transaction data from the leading interdealer electronic broking system Reuters D2000-2, we examine the association between exchange rate return and contemporaneous order flow and the predictability power of lagged order flow on the future exchange rate return. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that at high frequency (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 min) there exists strong positive association between exchange rate returns and contempo...

  3. Apparent exchange rate imaging in anisotropic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Lundell, Henrik M; Søgaard, Lise V;

    2014-01-01

    Double-wave diffusion experiments offer the possibility of probing correlation between molecular diffusion at multiple time points. It has recently been shown that this technique is capable of measuring the exchange of water across cellular membranes. The aim of this study was to investigate the ...... the effect of macroscopic tissue anisotropy on the measurement of the apparent exchange rate (AXR) in multicompartment systems.......Double-wave diffusion experiments offer the possibility of probing correlation between molecular diffusion at multiple time points. It has recently been shown that this technique is capable of measuring the exchange of water across cellular membranes. The aim of this study was to investigate...

  4. A fundamentally new approach to air-cooled heat exchangers.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koplow, Jeffrey P.

    2010-01-01

    We describe breakthrough results obtained in a feasibility study of a fundamentally new architecture for air-cooled heat exchangers. A longstanding but largely unrealized opportunity in energy efficiency concerns the performance of air-cooled heat exchangers used in air conditioners, heat pumps, and refrigeration equipment. In the case of residential air conditioners, for example, the typical performance of the air cooled heat exchangers used for condensers and evaporators is at best marginal from the standpoint the of achieving maximum the possible coefficient of performance (COP). If by some means it were possible to reduce the thermal resistance of these heat exchangers to a negligible level, a typical energy savings of order 30% could be immediately realized. It has long been known that a several-fold increase in heat exchanger size, in conjunction with the use of much higher volumetric flow rates, provides a straight-forward path to this goal but is not practical from the standpoint of real world applications. The tension in the market place between the need for energy efficiency and logistical considerations such as equipment size, cost and operating noise has resulted in a compromise that is far from ideal. This is the reason that a typical residential air conditioner exhibits significant sensitivity to reductions in fan speed and/or fouling of the heat exchanger surface. The prevailing wisdom is that little can be done to improve this situation; the 'fan-plus-finned-heat-sink' heat exchanger architecture used throughout the energy sector represents an extremely mature technology for which there is little opportunity for further optimization. But the fact remains that conventional fan-plus-finned-heat-sink technology simply doesn't work that well. Their primary physical limitation to performance (i.e. low thermal resistance) is the boundary layer of motionless air that adheres to and envelops all surfaces of the heat exchanger. Within this

  5. Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    We test the hypothesis of a link between exchange rate policy and sovereign bonds. We analyze the effect of exchange rate policies on supply and credit spreads of sovereign bonds issued by developing countries. An exchange rate policy is captured by the de facto exchange rate regime and the real exchange rate misalignment. The main findings are: (1) real exchange rate overvaluation significantly increases sovereign bond issue probability and raises bond spreads; (2) spreads and the likelihood...

  6. Exchange rate arrangements: From extreme to "normal"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies theoretical and empirical location dispersion of exchange rate arrangements - rigid-intermediate-flexible regimes, in the context of extreme arrangements of a currency board, dollarization and monetary union moderate characteristics of intermediate arrangements (adjustable pegs crawling pegs and target zones and imperative-process "normalization" in the form of a managed or clean floating system. It is established that de iure and de facto classifications generate "fear of floating" and "fear of pegging". The "impossible trinity" under the conditions of capital liberalization and globalization creates a bipolar view or hypothesis of vanishing intermediate exchange rate regimes.

  7. Bank Liquidity and Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Bunda, Irina; Desquilbet, Jean-Baptiste

    2003-01-01

    International audience; Combining panel data on bank liquidity at the individual level and data on their macroeconomic environment, for a sample of commercial banks in emerging countries between 1995 and 2000, we show that their exists a “bank liquidity smile across exchange rate regimes”. In extreme regimes at both ends of the line, i.e. for pure floating exchange rate regimes at one end and currency boards and dollarized economies at the other end, bank assets are more liquid than in interm...

  8. Apparent exchange rate for breast cancer characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasič, Samo; Oredsson, Stina; Partridge, Savannah C; Saal, Lao H; Topgaard, Daniel; Nilsson, Markus; Bryskhe, Karin

    2016-05-01

    Although diffusion MRI has shown promise for the characterization of breast cancer, it has low specificity to malignant subtypes. Higher specificity might be achieved if the effects of cell morphology and molecular exchange across cell membranes could be disentangled. The quantification of exchange might thus allow the differentiation of different types of breast cancer cells. Based on differences in diffusion rates between the intra- and extracellular compartments, filter exchange spectroscopy/imaging (FEXSY/FEXI) provides non-invasive quantification of the apparent exchange rate (AXR) of water between the two compartments. To test the feasibility of FEXSY for the differentiation of different breast cancer cells, we performed experiments on several breast epithelial cell lines in vitro. Furthermore, we performed the first in vivo FEXI measurement of water exchange in human breast. In cell suspensions, pulsed gradient spin-echo experiments with large b values and variable pulse duration allow the characterization of the intracellular compartment, whereas FEXSY provides a quantification of AXR. These experiments are very sensitive to the physiological state of cells and can be used to establish reliable protocols for the culture and harvesting of cells. Our results suggest that different breast cancer subtypes can be distinguished on the basis of their AXR values in cell suspensions. Time-resolved measurements allow the monitoring of the physiological state of cells in suspensions over the time-scale of hours, and reveal an abrupt disintegration of the intracellular compartment. In vivo, exchange can be detected in a tumor, whereas, in normal tissue, the exchange rate is outside the range experimentally accessible for FEXI. At present, low signal-to-noise ratio and limited scan time allows the quantification of AXR only in a region of interest of relatively large tumors.

  9. Do time-averaged, whole-building, effective volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions depend on the air exchange rate? A statistical analysis of trends for 46 VOCs in U.S. offices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rackes, A; Waring, M S

    2016-08-01

    We used existing data to develop distributions of time-averaged air exchange rates (AER), whole-building 'effective' emission rates of volatile organic compounds (VOC), and other variables for use in Monte Carlo analyses of U.S. offices. With these, we explored whether long-term VOC emission rates were related to the AER over the sector, as has been observed in the short term for some VOCs in single buildings. We fit and compared two statistical models to the data. In the independent emissions model (IEM), emissions were unaffected by other variables, while in the dependent emissions model (DEM), emissions responded to the AER via coupling through a conceptual boundary layer between the air and a lumped emission source. For 20 of 46 VOCs, the DEM was preferable to the IEM and emission rates, though variable, were higher in buildings with higher AERs. Most oxygenated VOCs and some alkanes were well fit by the DEM, while nearly all aromatics and halocarbons were independent. Trends by vapor pressure suggested multiple mechanisms could be involved. The factors of temperature, relative humidity, and building age were almost never associated with effective emission rates. Our findings suggest that effective emissions in real commercial buildings will be difficult to predict from deterministic experiments or models.

  10. Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burstein, Ariel; Eichenbaum, Martin; Rebelo, Sergio

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we argue that the primary force behind the large drop in real exchange rates that occurs after large devaluations is the slow adjustment in the prices of nontradable goods and services. Our empirical analysis uses data from five large devaluation episodes: Argentina (2002), Brazil (1999), Korea (1997), Mexico (1994), and Thailand…

  11. The role of bubbles during air-sea gas exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emerson, Steven; Bushinsky, Seth

    2016-06-01

    The potential for using the air-sea exchange rate of oxygen as a tracer for net community biological production in the ocean is greatly enhanced by recent accuracy improvements for in situ measurements of oxygen on unmanned platforms. A limiting factor for determining the exchange process is evaluating the air-sea flux contributed by bubble processes produced by breaking waves, particularly during winter months under high winds. Highly accurate measurements of noble gases (Ne, Ar & Kr) and nitrogen, N2, in seawater are tracers of the importance of bubble process in the surface mixed layer. We use measured distributions of these gases in the ventilated thermocline of the North Pacific and an annual time series of N2 in the surface ocean of the NE Subarctic Pacific to evaluate four different air-water exchange models chosen to represent the range of model interpretation of bubble processes. We find that models must have an explicit bubble mechanism to reproduce concentrations of insoluble atmospheric gases, but there are periods when they all depart from observations. The recent model of Liang et al. (2013) stems from a highly resolved model of bubble plumes and categorizes bubble mechanisms into those that are small enough to collapse and larger ones that exchange gases before they resurface, both of which are necessary to explain the data.

  12. Heat Recovery Ventilation for Housing: Air-to-Air Heat Exchangers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, Robert J.; Miller, Barbara

    The air-to-air heat exchanger (a fan powered ventilation device that recovers heat from stale outgoing air) is explained in this six-part publication. Topic areas addressed are: (1) the nature of air-to-air heat exchangers and how they work; (2) choosing and sizing the system; (3) installation, control, and maintenance of the system; (4) heat…

  13. Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanke, Michael; Poulsen, Rolf; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Since its announcement made on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level.We use a compound option pricing approach...... to estimate the latent exchange rate that would prevail in the absence of the SNB’s interventions, together with the market’s confidence in the SNB’s commitment to this policy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc....

  14. RMB Exchange Rate Forecast Approach Based on BP Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Sun

    RMB exchange rate system has reformed since July, 2005. This article chose RMB exchange rate data during a period from July, 2005 to September 2010 to establish BP neural network model to forecast RMB exchange rate in the future by using MATLAB software. The result showed that BP neural network is effective to forecast RMB exchange rate and also indicated that RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate in the future.

  15. Forecasting Exchange Rates with Mixed Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Maria Badea

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Gaining accuracy in exchange rate forecasting applications provides true benefits for financial activities. Supported today by the advancements in computing power, machine learning techniques provide good alternatives to traditional time series estimation methods. Very approached in time series forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs which offer robust results and allow a flexible data manipulation. When integrating both, the “white-box” feature of conventional methods and the complexity of machine learning techniques, forecasting models perform even better in terms of generated errors. In this study, input variables (independent variables are selected using an ARIMA technique and are further employed in differently configured multilayered feed-forward neural networks using Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS optimization algorithm to perform predictions on EUR/RON and CHF/RON exchange rates. Results in terms of mean squared error highlight good results when using mixed models.

  16. Design and simulation of heat exchangers using Aspen HYSYS, and Aspen exchanger design and rating for paddy drying application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janaun, J.; Kamin, N. H.; Wong, K. H.; Tham, H. J.; Kong, V. V.; Farajpourlar, M.

    2016-06-01

    Air heating unit is one of the most important parts in paddy drying to ensure the efficiency of a drying process. In addition, an optimized air heating unit does not only promise a good paddy quality, but also save more for the operating cost. This study determined the suitable and best specifications heating unit to heat air for paddy drying in the LAMB dryer. In this study, Aspen HYSYS v7.3 was used to obtain the minimum flow rate of hot water needed. The resulting data obtained from Aspen HYSYS v7.3 were used in Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR) to generate heat exchanger design and costs. The designs include shell and tubes and plate heat exchanger. The heat exchanger was designed in order to produce various drying temperatures of 40, 50, 60 and 70°C of air with different flow rate, 300, 2500 and 5000 LPM. The optimum condition for the heat exchanger were found to be plate heat exchanger with 0.6 mm plate thickness, 198.75 mm plate width, 554.8 mm plate length and 11 numbers of plates operating at 5000 LPM air flow rate.

  17. From monetary to exchange rate targets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.J. ARTIS

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper was presented at the Fourth International Seminar on European Economic and Monetary Union, held in Copenhagen in March of 1981. The author takes up the theoretical issues in the framework of both static and dynamic analysis. He argues, on the basis of the criterion of minimising the variance of prices around their target value, that an exchange-rate target outperforms a monetary target under most conceivable types of disturbances in a static analysis. 

  18. New Chapter in Exchange Rate Reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Introduction of new trading model has multiple significance China's central bank invited public bidding among 10 major domestic commercial banks to carry out one-year-long currency swap transactions last November. This move, according to Zuo Xiaolei, Chief Economist of China Galaxy Securities Co. Ltd., not only enables financial derivatives to become an operational instrument for implementing monetary policy, but also represents another action of the marketization of the exchange rate regime after an ear...

  19. Exchange Rate Forecasting with Information Flow Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Irena Mačerinskienė; Andrius Balčiūnas

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to assess exchange rate forecasting possibilities with an information flow approach model. In the model the three types of information flows are distinguished: fundamental analysis information flow through particular macroeconomic determinants, microstructure approach information flow through dealer clients’ positioning data, technical analysis information flow through technical indicators. By using regression analysis it is shown that the composed model can for...

  20. Forecasting Exchange Rate Using Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Raksaseree, Sukhita

    2009-01-01

    The artificial neural network models become increasingly popular among researchers and investors since many studies have shown that it has superior performance over the traditional statistical model. This paper aims to investigate the neural network performance in forecasting foreign exchange rates based on backpropagation algorithm. The forecast of Thai Baht against seven currencies are conducted to observe the performance of the neural network models using the performance criteria for both ...

  1. Are Fixed Exchange Rates the Problem and Flexible Exchange Rates the Cure?

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Davidson

    2003-01-01

    This paper explains why once non-probabilistic (i.e., a non-ergodic stochastic system) uncertainty is introduced into an orthodox freely flexible exchange rate model, the concept of the elasticity of expectations explains the open economy system will be extremely unstable except under the most stationary of economic circumstances. Alternative fixed exchange rate systems are proposed which will help stabilize the open economy--even when real economic forces are volatile.

  2. Exchange-rate forecasts and asymmetric loss: empirical evidence for the yen/dollar exchange rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    We used the yen/dollar exchange-rate forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyse whether exchange-rate forecasters have an asymmetric loss function. To this end, we applied an approach recently developed by Elliott et al. (2005). We found that only few forecasters seem to form...... forecasts under an asymmetric loss function. For some forecasters, accounting for the asymmetry of their loss function makes their forecasts look rational....

  3. ECONOMETRIC MODELS FOR DETERMING THE EXCHANGE RATE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela BRATU

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The simple econometric models for the exchange rate, according to recent researches, generates the forecasts with the highest degree of accuracy. This type of models (Simultaneous Equations Model, MA(1 Procedure, Model with lagged variables is used to describe the evolution of the average exchange rate in Romanian in January 1991-March 2012 and to predict it on short run. The best forecasts, in terms of accuracy, on the forecasting horizon April-May 2012 were those based on a Simultaneous Equations Model that takes into account the Granger causality. An almost high degree of accuracy was gotten by combining the predictions based on MA(1 model with those based on the simultaneous equations model, when INV weighting scheme was applied (the forecasts are inversely weighted to their relative mean squared forecast error. The lagged variables Model provided the highest prediction errors. The importance of knowing the best exchange rate forecasts is related to the improvement of decision-making and the building of the monetary policy.

  4. Exchange Rate Exposure: A f irm and Industry Level Investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Sadik Cukur

    2010-01-01

    Exchange rate exposure has become one of the most important subjects in international finance area after collapsing fixed exchange rate system. Several studies have been devoted to explore the relationship between exchange rate changes and the value of the firm. This study aims to investigate this relationship in the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market. The results of univariate model and multivariate models indicate that 30 % of the firms are affected negatively against exchange rate changes. The...

  5. MODELLING THE WORLD EXCHANGE RATES:DYNAMICS, VOLATILITY AND FORECASTING

    OpenAIRE

    Nwaobi, Godwin

    2008-01-01

    Indeed, the specification of equilibrium in the world economy depends on the exchange rate regime and thus, the early contributions to the postwar literature on exchange rate economics are to a large extent concerened with the role of speculation in foreign exchange markets. However, the world has known several exchange rate systems beginning with the fixed-gold standard, the adjustable-peg system, adjustable-parity system and the flexible exchange rate system. Yet, in 1997, when foreign exch...

  6. Stochastic Simulation of the Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria ALDEA

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The rational expectations paradigm, that dominates macroeconomicsfails to take into account the complexity of the information, which is so vast that the individual brain cannot understand the full of it. The agents are boundedly rational,so they use simple forecasting rules that do not incorporate all available information, but they are willing to learn and will switch to other rules if it turns out that these rules are more profitable than the rule they have been using. Such trial and error learning strategies create the dynamics in the foreign exchange market, with two types of equilibria, a fundamental and a non-fundamental equilibrium to which the exchange rate is attracted.

  7. 78 FR 49484 - Exchange of Air Force Real Property for Non-Air Force Real Property

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-14

    ... Department of Air Force Exchange of Air Force Real Property for Non-Air Force Real Property SUMMARY: Notice identifies excess Federal real property under administrative jurisdiction of the United States Air Force it intends to exchange for real property not currently owned by the Federal government that will be...

  8. Operating experiences with rotary air-to-air heat exchangers: hospitals, schools, nursing homes, swimming pools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pearson, R.J.

    1976-01-01

    Systems utilizing rotary air-to-air heat exchangers are discussed. Basic considerations of use (fresh air requirements, system configurations, cost considerations), typical system layout/design considerations, and operating observations by engineers, staff and maintenance personnel are described.

  9. Escape Clauses and Targeting of the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Nominal Exchange Rate Pegging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo González M.

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available

    We consider an economy under a fixed exchange rate system, but with bounds (a minimum level or a band on the real exchange rate. The international price of the tradable good is characterized by the continuous arrival of shocks that change its level. In a model with microfoundations, we investigate the effects of targeting the real exchange rate through nominal exchange rate changes that preclude the real exchange from trespassing the imposed bounds.

    A stochastic general equilibrium model with two goods and fixed non-tradable goods price level is developed. We analyze the cases in which a lower bound or a band on the real exchange rate is introduced. The general conclusion is that when bounds are established, then welfare effects can be expected, which are generated at the expense of the levels of consumption that go in the opposite direction than what the policy intended. This short-run effect is present even in the case the targeting policy is never exercised. This result is similar to the one we find in the target zones literature, in the sense that just the existence of this tolerance band changes the behavior of the economy.

    An interesting result is that, in the case in which home goods prices are fixed, the imposition of the band on the real exchange rate does not change its behavior within the band. However, this result is not true of other real variables in the economy. In other words, although the targeted variable within the band behaves identically to the case in which there are no bounds, the rest of the real variables in the economy behave differently, even if the targeted variable remains within the band and the escape clause is not triggered.

  10. NATREX AND DETERMINATION OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE OF RMB

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Holger van Eden; LIU Bin; Gerbert Romyn; YANG Xiaoguang

    2001-01-01

    ]n this paper, we analyze the movements of the real exchange rate in China.Our empirical evidence shows that the purchasing power parity does not hold in the long run, and the real exchange rate is non-stationary. The decomposition of the movements of the real exchange rate also indicates that real shocks result in permanent changes in the real exchange rate whereas nominal shocks just result in temporary changes.Based on these facts,we apply NATREX approach to analyze the detrmination of real exchange rate in China.The NATREX model successfully explains the evolution of the real exchange rate in China:The real exchange rate in the long run is determined by the real fundamentals including the productivity at home and abroad,and the domestic time preference.In the long run,a rise of the domestic productivity significantly appreciates the real exchange rate whereas a rise of the foreign productivity significantly appreciates the real exchange rate whereas a rise of the fireign productivity or a rise of the domestic time preference significantly depreciates the real exchange rate.We also find that the estimated NATREX rate converges to the steady-state exchange rate in the long run.Although there are short-run fluctuations around the NATREX rate,the real exchange rate will converge to the NATREX rate over time.

  11. Statistical Analysis Regarding the Evolutions of the Euro Exchange Rate and the Dollar Exchange Rate, in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects a the statistical modeling of the values concerning the annual averages of the euro exchange rate, respectively the dollar exchange rate in Romania, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. The exchange rate represents the price regardinga monetary unit from the currency which belongs to a country, expressed in the monetary unit of the another country. Also, the exchange rate takes into consideration the type of quotation which linking the two currencies involved at the exchange ratio. The exchange rates have been more volatile over time, then relative price levels and rates of inflation.

  12. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østrup, Finn

    regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy...

  13. The Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Market Economies

    OpenAIRE

    Mehmet Guclu

    2008-01-01

    The choice of exchange rate regime has become one of the most important issues one more time in many economies after the financial crises in recent years. In the wake of the financial crises, many countries, especially emerging market economies, opted for floating exchange rate regimes by forsaking the pegged regimes. Consequently, an old debate on the choice and determinants of exchange rate regimes has been triggered. Economists have started to debate what appropriate exchange rate regime f...

  14. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

    OpenAIRE

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    2005-01-01

    We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniques to compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jump components, and measures based on prices of exchange rate futures options, allowing calculation of option implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationally efficient but biased forecast of future realized exchange rate v...

  15. Exchange-Rate Unification with Black Market Leakages; Russia 1992

    OpenAIRE

    Goldberg, L. S.

    1993-01-01

    In 1992 Russia unified the multiple exchange rates that had applied to international transactions. This paper describes the multiple exchange rate system that existed in Russia prior to mid-1992 and undertakes a theoretical exploration of the effects of the exchange rate unification that took place in July 1992. The model developed here allows for leakages between official and black markets and permits flexibility of the exchange rates in both official and parallel currency markets. Within th...

  16. Understanding the Gains from Wage Flexibility: The Exchange Rate Connection

    OpenAIRE

    Gal??, Jordi; Monacelli, Tommaso

    2015-01-01

    We study the gains from increased wage flexibility and their dependence on exchange rate policy, using a small open economy model with staggered price and wage setting. Two results stand out: (i) the impact of wage adjustments on employment is smaller the more the central bank seeks to stabilize the exchange rate, and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, and more likely in economies under an exchange rate peg or an exchange rate-focused monetary policy. Our findings cal...

  17. Friedman Redux; External Adjustment and Exchange Rate Flexibility

    OpenAIRE

    Atish R. Ghosh; Mahvash S Qureshi; Tsangarides, Charalambos G.

    2014-01-01

    Milton Friedman argued that flexible exchange rates would facilitate external adjustment. Recent studies find surprisingly little robust evidence that they do. We argue that this is because they use composite (or aggregate) exchange rate regime classifications, which often mask very heterogeneous bilateral relationships between countries. Constructing a novel dataset of bilateral exchange rate regimes that differentiates by the degree of exchange rate flexibility, as well as by direct and ind...

  18. Exchange Flow Rate Measurement Technique in Density Different Gases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motoo Fumizawa

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Buoyancy-driven exchange flows of helium-air through inclined a narrow tube was investigated. Exchange flows may occur following the opening of a window for ventilation, as well as when a pipe ruptures in a high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The experiment in this paper was carried out in a test chamber filled with helium and the flow was visualized using the smoke wire method. A high-speed camera recorded the flow behavior. The image of the flow was transferred to digital data, and the slow flow velocity, i.e. micro flow rate was measured by PIV software. Numerical simulation was carried out by the code of moving particle method with Lagrange method.

  19. Essays on exchange rate policy in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khamfula, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates has since 1971 given developing countries a wider range of choice with regard to their exchange rate regimes than had previously existed. With the emergence of a variety of exchange rate regimes, increasing attention has been given t

  20. Forecasting the Euro exchange rate using vector error correction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aarle, B. van; Bos, M.; Hlouskova, J.

    2000-01-01

    Forecasting the Euro Exchange Rate Using Vector Error Correction Models. — This paper presents an exchange rate model for the Euro exchange rates of four major currencies, namely the US dollar, the British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. The model is based on the monetary approach of ex

  1. Selection of the air heat exchanger operating in a gas turbine air bottoming cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chmielniak, Tadeusz; Czaja, Daniel; Lepszy, Sebastian

    2013-12-01

    A gas turbine air bottoming cycle consists of a gas turbine unit and the air turbine part. The air part includes a compressor, air expander and air heat exchanger. The air heat exchanger couples the gas turbine to the air cycle. Due to the low specific heat of air and of the gas turbine exhaust gases, the air heat exchanger features a considerable size. The bigger the air heat exchanger, the higher its effectiveness, which results in the improvement of the efficiency of the gas turbine air bottoming cycle. On the other hand, a device with large dimensions weighs more, which may limit its use in specific locations, such as oil platforms. The thermodynamic calculations of the air heat exchanger and a preliminary selection of the device are presented. The installation used in the calculation process is a plate heat exchanger, which is characterized by a smaller size and lower values of the pressure drop compared to the shell and tube heat exchanger. Structurally, this type of the heat exchanger is quite similar to the gas turbine regenerator. The method on which the calculation procedure may be based for real installations is also presented, which have to satisfy the economic criteria of financial profitability and cost-effectiveness apart from the thermodynamic criteria.

  2. Stock prices, exchange rates and causality in Malaysia: a note

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    This article contributes to the debate on stock prices and exchange rates in Malaysia. It examines causal relations using a new Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-50, 1995). Among the findings of interest, there is a feedback interaction between exchange rates and stock prices for the pre-crisis period. The results also reveal that exchange rates lead stock prices for the crisis period. In a financially liberalized environment, exchange ...

  3. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export...... prices and if the latter are exogenous to the exchange rate dynamics. In our view, however, commodity prices are essentially financial asset prices that are set in a forward-looking way, exactly like exchange rates. If both the exchange rate and the commodity prices are based on discounted future...

  4. The Exchange Rate Exposure of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    A shortcut to measuring exchange rate exposure at the company level can be to exploit the information content in the stock prices. A regression analysis is conducted for the main Danish non-financial companies. The use of one all-comprising exchange rate indicator fails to address the complexity...... of the extra-market exchange rate exposure of individual companies. As such, only a minority of companies has significant exposures when using the effective Danish exchange rate in an OLS regression analysis while half of the companies have significant exposures when using five main exchange rates. A GARCH(1...

  5. Air pollution and human fertility rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.; Basagaña, Xavier; Dadvand, Payam; Martinez, David; Cirach, Marta; Beelen, Rob; Jacquemin, Bénédicte

    2014-01-01

    Background: Some reports have suggested effects of air pollution on semen quality and success rates of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in humans and lower fertility rates in mice. However, no studies have evaluated the impact of air pollution on human fertility rates. Aims: We assessed the association

  6. Air-water oxygen exchange in a large whitewater river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Robert O.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Rosi-Marshall, Emma J.

    2012-01-01

    Air-water gas exchange governs fluxes of gas into and out of aquatic ecosystems. Knowing this flux is necessary to calculate gas budgets (i.e., O2) to estimate whole-ecosystem metabolism and basin-scale carbon budgets. Empirical data on rates of gas exchange for streams, estuaries, and oceans are readily available. However, there are few data from large rivers and no data from whitewater rapids. We measured gas transfer velocity in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon, as decline in O2 saturation deficit, 7 times in a 28-km segment spanning 7 rapids. The O2 saturation deficit exists because of hypolimnetic discharge from Glen Canyon Dam, located 25 km upriver from Lees Ferry. Gas transfer velocity (k600) increased with slope of the immediate reach. k600 was -1 in flat reaches, while k600 for the steepest rapid ranged 3600-7700 cm h-1, an extremely high value of k600. Using the rate of gas exchange per unit length of water surface elevation (Kdrop, m-1), segment-integrated k600 varied between 74 and 101 cm h-1. Using Kdrop we scaled k600 to the remainder of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. At the scale corresponding to the segment length where 80% of the O2 exchanged with the atmosphere (mean length = 26.1 km), k600 varied 4.5-fold between 56 and 272 cm h-1 with a mean of 113 cm h-1. Gas transfer velocity for the Colorado River was higher than those from other aquatic ecosystems because of large rapids. Our approach of scaling k600 based on Kdrop allows comparing gas transfer velocity across rivers with spatially heterogeneous morphology.

  7. THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM MALAYSIA

    OpenAIRE

    WONG HOCK TSEN

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the real exchange rate determination in Malaysia. The result of the autoregressive distributed lag approach shows that an increase in the real interest rate differential, productivity differential, the real oil price or reserve differential will lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate in the long run. The real oil price and reserve differential are important in the real exchange rate determination. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator shows about t...

  8. World currency exchange rate cross-correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Droå¼dż, S.; Górski, A. Z.; Kwapień, J.

    2007-08-01

    World currency network constitutes one of the most complex structures that is associated with the contemporary civilization. On a way towards quantifying its characteristics we study the cross correlations in changes of the daily foreign exchange rates within the basket of 60 currencies in the period December 1998 May 2005. Such a dynamics turns out to predominantly involve one outstanding eigenvalue of the correlation matrix. The magnitude of this eigenvalue depends however crucially on which currency is used as a base currency for the remaining ones. Most prominent it looks from the perspective of a peripheral currency. This largest eigenvalue is seen to systematically decrease and thus the structure of correlations becomes more heterogeneous, when more significant currencies are used as reference. An extreme case in this later respect is the USD in the period considered. Besides providing further insight into subtle nature of complexity, these observations point to a formal procedure that in general can be used for practical purposes of measuring the relative currencies significance on various time horizons.

  9. Numerical study of a PCM-air heat exchanger's thermal performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbinger, F.; Bhouri, M.; Groulx, D.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, the use of PCMs in HVAC applications is investigated by studying numerically the thermal performance of a PCM-air heat exchanger. The PCM used in this study is dodecanoic acid. A symmetric 3D model, incorporating conductive and convective heat transfer (air only) as well as laminar flow, was created in COMSOL Multiphysics 5.0. Simulations examined the dependence of the heat transfer rate on the temperature and velocity of the incoming air as well as the size of the channels in the heat exchanger. Results indicated that small channels size lead to a higher heat transfer rates. A similar trend was also obtained for high incoming air temperature, whereas the heat transfer rate was less sensitive to the incoming air velocity.

  10. Modelling heat and mass transfer in a membrane-based air-to-air enthalpy exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugaria, S.; Moro, L.; Del, D., Col

    2015-11-01

    The diffusion of total energy recovery systems could lead to a significant reduction in the energy demand for building air-conditioning. With these devices, sensible heat and humidity can be recovered in winter from the exhaust airstream, while, in summer, the incoming air stream can be cooled and dehumidified by transferring the excess heat and moisture to the exhaust air stream. Membrane based enthalpy exchangers are composed by different channels separated by semi-permeable membranes. The membrane allows moisture transfer under vapour pressure difference, or water concentration difference, between the two sides and, at the same time, it is ideally impermeable to air and other contaminants present in exhaust air. Heat transfer between the airstreams occurs through the membrane due to the temperature gradient. The aim of this work is to develop a detailed model of the coupled heat and mass transfer mechanisms through the membrane between the two airstreams. After a review of the most relevant models published in the scientific literature, the governing equations are presented and some simplifying assumptions are analysed and discussed. As a result, a steady-state, two-dimensional finite difference numerical model is setup. The developed model is able to predict temperature and humidity evolution inside the channels. Sensible and latent heat transfer rate, as well as moisture transfer rate, are determined. A sensitive analysis is conducted in order to determine the more influential parameters on the thermal and vapour transfer.

  11. Management of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramkishen S. Rajan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia over the decade 1999–2009. It finds that while Asia is home to a wide array of exchange rate regimes, there are signs of gradual movement toward somewhat greater exchange rate flexibility in many of the regional countries. There appears to be evidence of an apparent “fear of appreciation” which is manifested in asymmetric exchange rate intervention—i.e., a willingness to allow depreciations but reluctance to allow appreciations. This policy of effective exchange rate undervaluation is rather unorthodox from a neoclassical sense, but is consistent with a development policy centered on suppressing the price of non-tradable goods relative to tradables (i.e., real exchange rate undervaluation.

  12. Currency Substitution and the Fluctuations of Foreign-Exchange Reserves with Credibly Fixed Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Alberto Giovannini

    1991-01-01

    A fixed-exchange-rate system is characterized by two pillars: monetary policy coordination and foreign exchange reserves. This paper concentrates on the fluctuation of foreign exchange reserves by taking monetary policy coordination as given: the sustainability of the fixed exchange rate regime is insured via a cointegration restriction on the path of money supplies. The paper considers three types of cash-in-advance models of money demand. The first two types are more traditional models wher...

  13. Assessing Asian Equilibrium Exchange Rates as Policy Instruments

    OpenAIRE

    MASUJIMA Yuki

    2015-01-01

    This paper attempts to estimate the quarterly equilibrium exchange rates (EER) of nine Asian currencies (Japan, China, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines) with the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rates (BEER) from 2006 to 2014. The BEER was compared with the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates (FEER) published biannually by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. While four Asian currencies tend to be undervalued in the Peterson's FEER a...

  14. Impact of Exchange Rate on Foreign Private Investment in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Asif

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is focused on analyzing exchange rates on foreign private investment in Pakistan. Times series data from periods 1973 to 2012 was used for the analysis. The results of estimation suggest that an exchange rate and gross domestic product are the most important variable that affects private foreign investment in Pakistan. Exchange rate was recommended to be more market responsive compared to the other variables of the model

  15. Adaptive Forecasting of Exchange Rates with Panel Data

    OpenAIRE

    Morales-Arias, Leonardo; Dross, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    This article investigates the statistical and economic implications of adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data and alternative predictors. The candidate exchange rate predictors are drawn from (i) macroeconomic 'fundamentals', (ii) return/volatility of asset markets and (iii) cyclical and confidence indices. Exchange rate forecasts at various horizons are obtained from each of the potential predictors using single market, mean group and pooled estimates by means of rolling wind...

  16. Real Shocks Unemployment and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Hee-Ho Kim

    2002-01-01

    We develop a model of exogenous shocks on the real exchange rate between two large countries. We alter the model by introducing unemployment to consider the issue of how unemployment in a country can significantly change the effects of real shocks on the exchange rate. Introducing unemployment adds flexibility in production that can alter the magnitudes and even signs of shocks to the real exchange rate. These changes occur because of intersectoral differences in labor demand elasticities, as...

  17. Measuring real exchange rate misalignment in Croatia: cointegration approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Palić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyze misalignment of the real exchange rate in Croatia. The misalignment analysis is conducted using the permanent equilibrium exchange rate approach. The equilibrium real exchange rate is computed using the cointegration approach whereby the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, namely terms of trade, net foreign assets and the ratio of prices of tradables to non-tradables are included in cointegration analysis. The Hodrick and Prescott filter is used to obtain permanent values of the equilibrium real exchange rate. The real exchange rate misalignment is computed as the deviation of the RER from its permanent equilibrium level. Four overvaluation periods and three undervaluation periods are recorded in Croatia in the observed period. Overvaluation periods are more often and of longer duration than undervaluation periods. However, the real exchange rate does not deviate largely from its estimated equilibrium value in the observed period, and it is neither overvalued nor undervalued constantly, but the periods alternate. Considering the results of the analysis, together with the empirical characteristics of Croatian economy, namely the high foreign currency indebtedness, highly euroized economy and underdeveloped export oriented sector, the depreciation of the real exchange rate is not recommended to economic policy makers and the current Croatian exchange rate policy is appropriate.

  18. Exchange rate reform:progress,challenges and prospects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈东琪; 张岸元; 王元

    2009-01-01

    For three decades China has followed an incremental approach in renminbi exchange rate reform.During this period,the exchange rate system has gone through five stages of evolution:i) a"basket peg"exchange rate regime;ii) a dual-track system;Hi) exchange rate convergence;iv) a"unitary pegged"exchange rate regime;and v) a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. Reforming the exchange rate formation mechanism is a complex engineering project influenced by numerous factors such as the economic development mode,industrial structure,basic economic system,market system condition,financial and macroeconomic policy system as well as the new advantages arising from opening-up initiatives.Since 2005,China has achieved substantial success in reforming the exchange rate formation mechanism but still faces a plethora of issues.To address these issues,China should strengthen the role of the market in the exchange rate formation process and gradually push for the free convertibility of the renminbi under the capital account.Amidst the raging global financial crisis,China should further adapt to the diversification of the international monetary system and aggressively proceed with renminbi regionalization and internationalization.

  19. Statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dong-Hua; Yu, Xiao-Wen; Suo, Yuan-Yuan

    2012-06-01

    We choice the yuan exchange rate index based on a basket of currencies as the effective exchange rate of the yuan and investigate the statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index after China's exchange rate system reform on the 21st July 2005. After dividing the time series into two parts according to the change in the yuan exchange rate regime in July 2008, we compare the statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index during these two periods. We find that the distribution of the two return series has the exponential form. We also perform the detrending moving average analysis (DMA) and the multifractal detrending moving average analysis (MFDMA). The two periods possess different degrees of long-range correlations, and the multifractal nature is also unveiled in these two time series. Significant difference is found in the scaling exponents τ(q) and singularity spectra f(α) of the two periods obtained from the MFDMA analysis. Besides, in order to detect the sources of multifractality, shuffling and phase randomization procedures are applied to destroy the long-range temporal correlation and fat-tailed distribution of the yuan exchange rate index respectively. We find that the fat-tailedness plays a critical role in the sources of multifractality in the first period, while the long memory is the major cause in the second period. The results suggest that the change in China's exchange rate regime in July 2008 gives rise to the different multifractal properties of the yuan exchange rate index in these two periods, and thus has an effect on the effective exchange rate of the yuan after the exchange rate reform on the 21st July 2005.

  20. The difficulties of the Chinese and Indian exchange rate regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ila Patnaik

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available China and India have both sought control over the exchange rate in order to maintain export competitiveness, manage current account balance, and pursue independent monetary policy. In this paper, we examine structural change in the Chinese and Indian de facto exchange rate regimes, focusing on the period from 1998 to 2007. With increasing capital account openness, exchange rate inflexibility has been associated with significant monetary policy distortions. In both countries, the short-term rate expressed in real terms dropped, and achieved very low values, in the unprecedented business cycle expansion of the early 2000s. In the Indian case, difficulties of sterilisation led to a modification of the exchange rate regime, moving towards greater flexibility. In China, in contrast, the exchange rate regime did not change.

  1. Restarted Exchange Rate Reform Raises New Doubts on RMB Appreciation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xueqing

    2010-01-01

    @@ The de-pegging of RMB exchange rate from the US dol-lar does not lead to a substantial change in the exchange rate in the short term. Considering the future regime, if the European financial crisis was not lessened, the Euro and other major currencies would continue to devalue against the U.S dollar and the RMB would probably follow suit.

  2. IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN CONTEMPORARY VIETNAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    The Dong Phung

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the issue of effectiveness of exchange rate policy in contemporary Vietnam, along with the assessment of the mechanism of this policy from 1989 to the present day. The author analyzes constraints of implementing the exchange rate policy in the past and gives recommendations aimed at improving its efficiency nowadays.

  3. Unpredictable After All? A short note on exchange rate predictability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A. Moerman (Gerard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractEarlier research has shown that it is very hard to outperform the random walk model with respect to forecasting exchange rates. In this paper we propose an extension to the regular regime-switching model in order to capture the exchange rate dynamics. The model is extended by including m

  4. Effectiveness of Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Causality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Ejaz Ali Khan

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The study analyzed the effectiveness of exchange rate on macroeconomic variables of Pakistan. The precise objective of the study is to examine the causality between exchange rate, trade, inflation, FDI and GDP through a series of models. On the annual time series data for the years 1980-2009 unit root test for stationarity, Johansen’s cointegration test for long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables for each model and Granger Causality test to check the causality between the variables is applied. The main findings are as: there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and inflation, but there exists long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and trade. Thereis also long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and FDI and causality runs in both directions, i.e. exchange rate to FDI and FDI to exchange rate. Finally, there is long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and GDP but causality doesnot run in either direction.

  5. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    of exchange rate futures options, allowingcalculation of option implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationallyefficient but biased forecast of future realized exchange rate volatility. Furthermore,we show that log-normality is an even better distributional approximation...... for impliedvolatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump componentof future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and thatoption implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component.......We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniquesto compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jumpcomponents, and measures based on prices...

  6. The Effect of Rain on Air-Water Gas Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, David T.; Bliven, Larry F.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Schlosser, Peter

    1997-01-01

    The relationship between gas transfer velocity and rain rate was investigated at NASA's Rain-Sea Interaction Facility (RSIF) using several SF, evasion experiments. During each experiment, a water tank below the rain simulator was supersaturated with SF6, a synthetic gas, and the gas transfer velocities were calculated from the measured decrease in SF6 concentration with time. The results from experiments with IS different rain rates (7 to 10 mm/h) and 1 of 2 drop sizes (2.8 or 4.2 mm diameter) confirm a significant and systematic enhancement of air-water gas exchange by rainfall. The gas transfer velocities derived from our experiment were related to the kinetic energy flux calculated from the rain rate and drop size. The relationship obtained for mono-dropsize rain at the RSIF was extrapolated to natural rain using the kinetic energy flux of natural rain calculated from the Marshall-Palmer raindrop size distribution. Results of laboratory experiments at RSIF were compared to field observations made during a tropical rainstorm in Miami, Florida and show good agreement between laboratory and field data.

  7. The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members: evidence from real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candelon, B.; Kool, C.J.M.; Raabe, K.; van Veen, T.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 1993-2003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future ris

  8. The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members : Evidence from real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candelon, B.; Kool, C.J.M.; Raabe, K.; Veen, van A.P. (Tom)

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 1993-2003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future ris

  9. Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

    OpenAIRE

    Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Kenneth Froot

    1990-01-01

    The paper presents new empirical results that elucidate the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half of the paper is an updated study of the exchange rate expectations held by market participants, as reflected in responses to surveys, and contains the following conclusions. First, the bias observed in the forward discount as a predictor of the future spot rate is not attributable to an exchange risk premium, as is conventionally believed. Second, at short horizons forecasters t...

  10. The relationship between exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Wei Su

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to provide evidences on the relationship betweenRenminbi (RMB exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in China, as well asguidelines for reform of RMB exchange rate regime. The long-run equilibriumrelationship between RMB exchange rate and macroeconomic variables of Chinais examined by applying the non-parametric rank tests proposed by Breitung.Furthermore, this study uses the threshold error-correction model (TECM todetect the nonlinear casual relationship between RMB exchange rate andmacroeconomic variables that are nonlinear forms. The results show that RMBexchange rate and macroeconomic variables have nonlinear relationship witheach other. In the long run, these results demonstrate solid evidence that RMBexchange rate and macroeconomic variables support the hypothesis of anasymmetrical error-correction process in China. Our results have important policyimplications for Chinese government under study.

  11. Exchange rate formation in Ukraine and its impact on macroeconomic indicators

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The factors of exchange rate formation in Ukraine are analyzes in this paper, the influence of exchange rate on macroeconomic indicators of development and the main priorities of the exchange rate policy are determined exchange.

  12. Technology Candidates for Air-to-Air and Air-to-Ground Data Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Brian D.

    2015-01-01

    Technology Candidates for Air-to-Air and Air-to-Ground Data Exchange is a two-year research effort to visualize the U. S. aviation industry at a point 50 years in the future, and to define potential communication solutions to meet those future data exchange needs. The research team, led by XCELAR, was tasked with identifying future National Airspace System (NAS) scenarios, determining requirements and functions (including gaps), investigating technical and business issues for air, ground, & air-to-ground interactions, and reporting on the results. The project was conducted under technical direction from NASA and in collaboration with XCELAR's partner, National Institute of Aerospace, and NASA technical representatives. Parallel efforts were initiated to define the information exchange functional needs of the future NAS, and specific communication link technologies to potentially serve those needs. Those efforts converged with the mapping of each identified future NAS function to potential enabling communication solutions; those solutions were then compared with, and ranked relative to, each other on a technical basis in a structured analysis process. The technical solutions emerging from that process were then assessed from a business case perspective to determine their viability from a real-world adoption and deployment standpoint. The results of that analysis produced a proposed set of future solutions and most promising candidate technologies. Gap analyses were conducted at two points in the process, the first examining technical factors, and the second as part of the business case analysis. In each case, no gaps or unmet needs were identified in applying the solutions evaluated to the requirements identified. The future communication solutions identified in the research comprise both specific link technologies and two enabling technologies that apply to most or all specific links. As a result, the research resulted in a new analysis approach, viewing the

  13. Target zones and exchange rates : An empirical investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Bekaert, G.R.J.; Gray, S. F.

    1997-01-01

    In this paper we develop an empirical model of exchange rates in a target zone. The model is general enough to nest most theoretical and empirical models in the existing literature. We find evidence of two types of jumps in exchange rates. Realignment jumps are those that are associated with the periodic realignments of the target zone and within-the-band jumps are those that can be accommodated within the current target zone. The exchange rate may jump outside the current target zone band, i...

  14. Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In heterodox literature, the industrial sector is considered strategic for economic development. Consequently, reducing the contribution of this sector in the production of the country before it has reached the stage of economic maturity, affects the productive dynamics and slow technical progress. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is seen as one of the factors responsible for the reduction of the external competitiveness of Brazilian manufactures, and this exchange rate valuation may be occurring due to the differences between domestic and international interest rates. Given this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy and in the composition of the total exports on the performance of the Brazilian economy using a structuralist model. The results reinforce the importance of the manufacturing sector to economic growth, especially in a competitive exchange rate environment.

  15. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  16. National Air Space (NAS) Data Exchange Environment Through 2060

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Aloke

    2015-01-01

    NASA's NextGen Concepts and Technology Development (CTD) Project focuses on capabilities to improve safety, capacity and efficiency of the National Air Space (NAS). In order to achieve those objectives, NASA sought industry-Government partnerships to research and identify solutions for traffic flow management, dynamic airspace configuration, separation assurance, super density operations, airport surface operations and similar forward-looking air-traffic modernization (ATM) concepts. Data exchanges over NAS being the key enabler for most of these ATM concepts, the Sub-Topic area 3 of the CTD project sought to identify technology candidates that can satisfy air-to-air and air/ground communications needs of the NAS in the year 2060 timeframe. Honeywell, under a two-year contract with NASA, is working on this communications technology research initiative. This report summarizes Honeywell's research conducted during the second year of the study task.

  17. Rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Masanori; Poulson, Simon R

    2012-04-17

    The rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water was investigated at conditions of 10 to 80 °C and pH -0.6 to 4.4. Oxygen isotope exchange proceeds as a first-order reaction, and the exchange rate is strongly affected by reaction temperature and pH, with increased rates of isotope exchange at higher temperature and lower pH. Selenate speciation (HSeO(4)(-) vs SeO(4)(2-)) also has a significant effect on the rate of isotope exchange. The half-life for isotope exchange at example natural conditions (25 °C and pH 7) is estimated to be significantly in excess of 10(6) years. The very slow rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water under most environmental conditions demonstrates that selenate-δ(18)O signatures produced by biogeochemical processes will be preserved and hence that it will be possible to use the value of selenate-δ(18)O to investigate the biogeochemical behavior of selenate, in an analogous fashion to the use of sulfate-δ(18)O to study the biogeochemical behavior of sulfate.

  18. Secret in Exchange Rate & Foreign Trade?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tang Jintao

    2009-01-01

    @@ China's import and export growth in November has dropped drastically.Year-on-year export growth rate dropped from 19.2 percent to -2.2percent and the year-on-year import growth rate dropped from 15.6 percent to -17.9 percent. The trade surplus amounted to 40.09billion U.S. dollars. This is the first time in China's exports monthly negative growth dating back to June 2001 (see Chart 1 ).

  19. MONETARY SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CEE COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Erjavec

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of the exchange rate regime in absorbing macroeconomic shocks for a group of Central and East European countries (CEE. Whether the flexible exchange rate regime is beneficial for an economy depends on the capacity of the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. An appropriate framework for assessing the role of the exchange rate is a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR model. Impact of two types of macroeconomic shocks is estimated: nominal and real. The shocks are identified on the basis of Blanchard-Quah long run identification scheme which means that the restrictions are imposed on the long run responses while the short run dynamics is kept unrestricted. The importance of nominal and real shocks is assessed using the variance decomposition and the impulse response functions.

  20. The effect of exchange rate on marketing margin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Torki

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a new structural model that incorprates price linkage and marketing marketing margin identity into a common framework. The inclusiom of exchange rate expands the framework to include goods traded in different currencies. This allows emprical estimates to be made of how changes in domestic prices exchange rates and middlemen costs are transmitted to foreign prices and the international marketing margin. The framework is emprically applied to international marketing channel using farmed apple data to investigate how Iranian export prices exchange rates and middlemen costs affect turkey wholesale prices and the marketing margin. Results suggest that the markets are via complete price and exchange rate pass through purely competitive and that the marketing margin only increase when costs of marketing service increase.

  1. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  2. Noninvasive detection of gas exchange rate by near infrared spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guodong; Mao, Zongzhen; Wang, Bangde

    2008-12-01

    In order to study the relationship among the oxygen concentration in skeletal muscle tissues and the heart rate (HR), oxygen uptake (VO2), respiratory exchange ratio (RER) during incremental running exercises on a treadmill, a near-infrared spectroscopy muscle oxygen monitor system is employed to measure the relative change in muscle oxygenation, with the heart rate, oxygen uptake, production of carbon dioxide (VCO2) and respiratory exchange ratio are recorded synchronously. The results indicate parameters mentioned above present regular changes during the incremental exercise. High correlations are discovered between relative change of oxy-hemoglobin concentration and heart rate, oxygen uptake, respiratory exchange ratio at the significance level (P=0.01). This research might introduce a new measurement technology and/or a novel biological monitoring parameter to the evaluation of physical function status, control the training intensity, estimation of the effectiveness of exercise. Keywords: near-infrared spectroscopy; muscle oxygen concentration; heart rate; oxygen uptake; respiratory exchange ratio.

  3. Exchange rate dynamics in crawling-band systems

    OpenAIRE

    José L Torres; M. Isabel Campos

    2007-01-01

    In this note we show that an exchange rate crawling-band system can borrow a portion of those aspects of a target zone that lead to its stabilizing effects on the exchange rate, depending on the relationship between the crawl rate and the drift of the fundamentals process. If the crawl rate is sufficiently high (with respect to the drift), the crawling-band is similar to a free float regime. As the crawl rate decreases, the crawling-band system collapses to a standard target zone.

  4. Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices : Measuring Causality at Multiple Horizons

    OpenAIRE

    Hui Jun ZHANG; Dufour, Jean-Marie; Galbraith, John W.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding and measuring the relative roles of different causal channels between commodity prices and exchange rates has important implications in financial decision making, especially for market participants with short horizons. From a macroeconomic perspective, this can also be useful for interpreting exchange rate movements, financial market monitoring and monetary policy. Basic economic reasoning on currency demand suggests that the currencies of countries whose exports depend heavily ...

  5. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate. PMID:26222702

  6. The effect of exchange rate on marketing margin

    OpenAIRE

    Leila Torki; AhmadAli Rezaei; Shekofeh Nagheli

    2014-01-01

    This study presents a new structural model that incorprates price linkage and marketing marketing margin identity into a common framework. The inclusiom of exchange rate expands the framework to include goods traded in different currencies. This allows emprical estimates to be made of how changes in domestic prices exchange rates and middlemen costs are transmitted to foreign prices and the international marketing margin. The framework is emprically applied to international marketing channel ...

  7. Decision Making Tool to Hedge Exchange Rate Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Fraire, Francisco; Leatham, David J.

    2006-01-01

    New econometric and statistical techniques have been used in recent years to provide with exchange rates forecasting models that can statistically outperform a random walk. In particular, a model that uses the term structure of forward premia into a regime-switching vector error correction model has proven to be successful at such a task. In this paper, we propose that the exchange rate fluctuations are not solely influenced by the economic fundamentals of those countries involved in the exch...

  8. Kinetic isotope effects for fast deuterium and proton exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canet, Estel; Mammoli, Daniele; Kadeřávek, Pavel; Pelupessy, Philippe; Bodenhausen, Geoffrey

    2016-04-21

    By monitoring the effect of deuterium decoupling on the decay of transverse (15)N magnetization in D-(15)N spin pairs during multiple-refocusing echo sequences, we have determined fast D-D exchange rates kD and compared them with fast H-H exchange rates kH in tryptophan to determine the kinetic isotope effect as a function of pH and temperature.

  9. Exchange Rate Uncertainty in Money-Based Stabilization Programs

    OpenAIRE

    R. Armando Morales

    1998-01-01

    Complementing the explanation provided by Calvo and Vegh (1994) for money-based stabilization programs, exchange rate uncertainty introduced to a particular version of the portfolio approach with imperfect competition in the banking system leads to a bias toward appreciation that is directly related to the divergence of expectations and that dampens the interaction between portfolio movements and the real exchange rate. Based on Frankel-Froot, uncertainty exists when the fundamental equilibri...

  10. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    Full Text Available Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  11. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  12. ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Mirchandani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

  13. Neural Network Based Forecasting of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kumar Chandar

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The foreign currency exchange market is the highest and most liquid of the financial markets, with an estimated $1 trillion traded every day. Foreign exchange rates are the most important economic indices in the international financial markets. The prediction of them poses many theoretical and experimental challenges. This paper reports empirical proof that a neural network model is applicable to the prediction of foreign exchange rates. The exchange rates between Indian Rupee and four other major currencies, Pound Sterling, US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen are forecast by the trained neural networks. The neural network was trained by three different learning algorithms using historical data to find the suitable algorithm for prediction. The forecasting performance of the proposed system is evaluated using three statistical metrics and compared. The results presented here demonstrate that significantly close prediction can be made without extensive knowledge of market data.

  14. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  15. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    OpenAIRE

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-01-01

    Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action ...

  16. Analysis of proton exchange kinetics with time-dependent exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutkowska-Wlodarczyk, Izabela; Kierdaszuk, Borys; Wlodarczyk, Jakub

    2010-04-01

    Mass spectrometry is used to probe the kinetics of hydrogen-deuterium exchange in lysozyme in pH 5, 6 and 7.4. An analysis based on a Verhulst growth model is proposed and effectively applied to the kinetics of the hydrogen exchange. The data are described by a power-like function which is based on a time-dependence of the exchange rate. Experimental data ranging over many time scales is considered and accurate fits of a power-like function are obtained. Results of fittings show correlation between faster hydrogen-deuterium exchange and increase of pH. Furthermore a model is presented that discriminates between easily exchangeable hydrogens (located in close proximity to the protein surface) and those protected from the exchange (located in the protein interior). A possible interpretation of the model and its biological significance are discussed.

  17. Econometric Analysis of Croatia’s Proclaimed Foreign Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mance Davor

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.

  18. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Employment in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmira Cakrani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Unemployment is a big economical and social issue for each country, in particular for Albania, which is a country that comes from a centralized system where the state ensured full employment. In the struggle of applying the transition to market economy, each government had to face the two-digit levels of unemployment. Because of this, the application of the right policies in order to decrease the level of unemployment has been in the centre of the program of each government in Albania. The objective of this paper is to show if the undervaluation or overvaluation of the real exchange rate can affect in a significant way the level of employment in Albania and that to answer the question, if the real exchange rate can be used as a political instrument for the reduction of the level of unemployment. There are relatively few works that study the impact of real exchange rate on the Albanian economy and in my knowledge there is not a previous work on employment and real exchange rate relationship in Albania, so this can be considered as the first study that attempt to assess this relationship. To evaluate the link between the real exchange rate and the level of employment the Johansen procedure and Vector Error Correction Term method is used. The result of the study demonstrates not statistically significant impact of real exchange rate on level of employment, suggesting that the increase of competition of the country through the real exchange rate doesn’t improve the condition of the employment in Albania, so the Albanian government should implement other strategies to increase the level of employment in the country.

  19. Exchange Rate Instability and Sectoral Exports: Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Haseeb

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Exports of a country is one of the main factors indicating economic health of a country and fluctuating exchange rates and relative price can significantly affect the level of exports and it is an alarming situation for a country when its exports are affected by exchange rate volatility. Impact of exchange rate volatility and relative price on trade has been a heated debate in the field of finance and most of work has been done on aggregate and bilateral trade. Few researches are found on product basis especially in the scenario of Pakistan. This research will provide an overview of the exports of 13 different products from Pakistan. Secondary data is used to analyze the impact of exchange rate instability on the exports of different products from Pakistan to all over the world. Significance of the study depends on the right choice of estimation method. We use auto regressive distributive lags (ARDL method to check the relationship of two main variables. Glass, meat and paper & board products show that relative price affects negatively to exports so Government should make policies to strengthen the exports of these three products. Government can provide subsidies on these products in order to boost up the exports and make these products competitive in international market. Under the shadow of our results we conclude that exchange rate volatility has significant negative relationship with the exports of food processing machinery, grapes, meat and petroleum products so government needs to be focused on it when exchange rate are highly instable. Iron & steel bars show short run negative impact of exchange rate however this impact is adjusted in the long run.

  20. Negative Policy Rates, Banking Flows and Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Khayat, Anwar

    2015-01-01

    Setting negative nominal rates is one of the unconventional policies implemented after the Great Recession to overcome the Zero Lower Bound. Using data from the euro area and Denmark, I assess the impact of introducing a negative interest rate on reserves. I find that it did put a depreciation pressure on the currency due to a reversal in banking flows. This effect is not only caused by policy differentials, but also by a distinct impact of going into negative territory from lowering interest...

  1. Real Exchange Rate in China: A Long-run Perspective

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Haihong Gao

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long-run viewpoint. Whether China's rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply-side model, the Balassa-Semuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia,Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy.Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China's industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH's prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant.

  2. Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, John A.; Dahl, Christian Møller; Osler, Carol L.

    of currency markets, it accurately reflects the constraints and objectives faced by the major participants, and it fits key stylized facts concerning returns and order flow. With respect to macroeconomics, the model is consistent with most of the major puzzles that have emerged under floating rates.......Recent research has revealed a wealth of information about the microeconomics of currency markets and thus the determination of exchange rates at short horizons. This information is valuable to us as scientists since, like evidence of macroeconomic regularities, it can provide critical guidance...... for designing exchange-rate models. This paper presents an optimizing model of short-run exchange-rate dynamics consistent with both the micro evidence and the macro evidence, the first such model of which we are aware. With respect to microeconomics, the model is consistent with the institutional structure...

  3. Rate theory on water exchange in aqueous uranyl ion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Liem X.; Vo, Quynh N.; Nilsson, Mikael; Nguyen, Hung D.

    2017-03-01

    We report a classical rate theory approach to predict the exchange mechanism that occurs between water and aqueous uranyl ion. Using our water and ion-water polarizable force field and molecular dynamics techniques, we computed the potentials of mean force for the uranyl ion-water pair as a function of different pressures at ambient temperature. These potentials of mean force were used to calculate rate constants using transition rate theory; the transmission coefficients also were examined using the reactive flux method and Grote-Hynes approach. The computed activation volumes are positive; thus, the mechanism of this particular water-exchange is a dissociative process.

  4. Exchange-Driven Growth with Birth Rate Less Than Death

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Zhen-Quan; KE Jian-Hong; YE Gao-Xiang

    2005-01-01

    We further study the kinetic behavior of the exchange-driven growth with birth and death for the case of birth rate kernel being less than that of death based on the mean-field theory. The symmetric exchange rate kernel is K(k,j) = K'(k,j) = Ikjv, and the birth and death rates are proportional to the aggregate's size. The long time asymptotic behavior of the aggregate size distribution ak(t) is found to obey a much unusual scaling law with an exponentially growing scaling function φ(x) = exp(x).

  5. THE CASE FOR AN INTERMEDIATE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME

    OpenAIRE

    JOHN WILLIAMSON

    2007-01-01

    The argument that any exchange rate regimes other than firmly fixed and freely floating rates were infeasible — the so-called bipolarity thesis — acquired great popularity in the wake of the Asian crisis of a decade ago, but it has almost vanished today. One reason is surely the unkind empirical evidence, which shows that intermediate regimes — measured as those where both reserve and exchange rate changes lie in an intermediate range — are not in fact tending to disappear (Levy Yeyati and St...

  6. A Role Play on Export Decisions and the Exchange Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotterell, Ann

    1987-01-01

    Explains that the goal of this exercise is to encourage an understanding of the effects of exchange rate changes and the use of forward rates. Provides a role play that involves students working in groups to decide whether to export a consignment of golf trollies to Italy and shortbread to Canada. (BSR)

  7. 38 CFR 3.32 - Exchange rates for foreign currencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... foreign currencies. 3.32 Section 3.32 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS... Exchange rates for foreign currencies. When determining the rates of pension or parents' DIC or the amounts... entitled, income received or expenses paid in a foreign currency shall be converted into U.S....

  8. Exchange Rate Movement and Foreign Direct Investment in Asean Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaratin Lily

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI are important for a country's economic development, but the world market for FDI has become more competitive. This paper empirically analyses the exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI relationship using annual data on ASEAN economies, that is, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. By employing ARDL bounds test approach, the empirical results show the existence of significant long-run cointegration between exchange rate and FDI for the case of Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines with all countries recording negative coefficient implying that the appreciation of Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and the Philippine peso has a positive impact on FDI inflows. Using the ECM based ARDL approach for causality test, both Singapore and the Philippines show long-run bidirectional causality between exchange rate and FDI whereas long-run unidirectional causality running from the exchange rate to FDI in Malaysia. Furthermore, this study also found that short-run unidirectional causality running from the exchange rate to FDI exists in Singapore.

  9. Air exchanges and indoor carbon dioxide concentration in Australian pig buildings: Effect of housing and management factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banhazi, T. M.; Stott, P.; Rutley, D.

    2011-01-01

    factors on the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and air exchange rates in 160 representative Australian pig buildings. CO(2) concentrations were measured, air changes per hour (ACH) were estimated using a CO(2) balance method, and structural and management parameters were recorded. The mean CO(2......) concentration measured was 858 ppm and a mean air exchange rate of 22.8 ACH was estimated. The analysis showed that CO(2) concentrations were affected by the type of building, season, control of the wall and ridge vents, ceiling height, size of the wall vents and height of the ridge vents. Weaner buildings had...

  10. Effectiveness of high interest rate policy on exchange rates: A reexamination of the Asian financial crisis

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    One of the most controversial issues in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis has been the appropriate response of monetary policy to a sharp decline in the value of some currencies. In this paper, we empirically examine the effects on Asian exchange rates of sharply higher interest rates during the Asian financial crisis. Taking account of the currency contagion effect, our results indicate that sharply higher interest rates helped to support the exchange rates of South Korea, the Phil...

  11. EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Ghiba

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Considering the difficulties created by the economic crisis, many exporters have criticized the National Bank of Romania (NBR’s policy regarding the exchange rate evolution. They argue that depreciation is a necessary condition for recovery and not financial stability. On the contrary, Romania cannot afford a shock in the exchange rate level. The risk associated with such a measure is too high for an emerging country and it annihilates any export competitive advantages. Therefore, depreciation may delay the imperative of Romanian economic recovery. A solid economic recovery should have as starting point a financial system sound and stable. Excessive exchange rate depreciation jeopardizes the financial soundness of banks and the borrower’s ability to repay their loans. Therefore, it creates inflationary flare-ups, particularly dangerous for the economy of any state.

  12. Exchange Rate Prediction using Neural – Genetic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MECHGOUG Raihane

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Neural network have successfully used for exchange rate forecasting. However, due to a large number of parameters to be estimated empirically, it is not a simple task to select the appropriate neural network architecture for exchange rate forecasting problem.Researchers often overlook the effect of neural network parameters on the performance of neural network forecasting. The performance of neural network is critically dependant on the learning algorithms, thenetwork architecture and the choice of the control parameters. Even when a suitable setting of parameters (weight can be found, the ability of the resulting network to generalize the data not seen during learning may be far from optimal. For these reasons it seemslogical and attractive to apply genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms may provide a useful tool for automating the design of neural network. The empirical results on foreign exchange rate prediction indicate that the proposed hybrid model exhibits effectively improved accuracy, when is compared with some other time series forecasting models.

  13. Chinese Yuan after Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Eiji Ogawa; Michiru Sakane

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, the actual exchange rate policy conducted by the Chinese government after the Chinese exchange rate system reform on 21 July 2005 is investigated. Also, the long-run effect is investigated, including the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the Chinese yuan. It was found that the Chinese government generated a statistically significant but small change in exchange rate policy during the sample period until 25 January 2006. It was not identifted that the Chinese monetary authority is adopting the currency basket system because the change is too small in the economic sense. It is indicated that the Chinese government should take account of the productivity growth of countries composing the currency basket in order to operate a currency basket regime.

  14. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  15. Foreign Exchange Rate Futures Trends: Foreign Exchange Risk or Systematic Forecasting Errors?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Cunha Medeiros

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The forward exchange rate is widely used in international finance whenever the analysis of the expected depreciation is needed. It is also used to identify currency risk premium. The difference between the spot rate and the forward rate is supposed to be a predictor of the future movements of the spot rate. This prediction is hardly precise. The fact that the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future change in the spot rate can be attributed to a currency risk premium. The bias can also be attributed to systematic errors of the future depreciation of the currency. This paper analyzes the nature of the risk premium and of the prediction errors in using the forward rate. It will look into the efficiency and rationality of the futures market in Brazil from April 1995 to December 1998, a period of controled exchange rates.

  16. Government Spending and Real Exchange Rate Case of Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmira Cakrani

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Various studies have found that governmentspending can lead to overestimation orunderestimation of the real exchange rate, depending on the composition of theseexpenditures. The purpose of this paper is toassess the impact of government spendingon real exchange rate in Albania. In this paper is used a log liner model with quarterlydata. Other explanatory variables in this model are: foreign direct investment, remittances,real GDP per capita, openness. Variables are tested for unit root and cointegration. Theresults indicate that government spendingis associated with overvaluation of realexchange rate in Albania.JEL Classification: E62; F31Various studies have found that governmentspending can lead to overestimation orunderestimation of the real exchange rate, depending on the composition of theseexpenditures. The purpose of this paper is toassess the impact of government spendingon real exchange rate in Albania. In this paper is used a log liner model with quarterlydata. Other explanatory variables in this model are: foreign direct investment, remittances,real GDP per capita, openness. Variables are tested for unit root and cointegration. Theresults indicate that government spendingis associated with overvaluation of realexchange rate in Albania.

  17. Government Spending and Real Exchange Rate Case of Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmira Cakrani

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Various studies have found that governmentspending can lead to overestimation orunderestimation of the real exchange rate, depending on the composition of theseexpenditures. The purpose of this paper is toassess the impact of government spendingon real exchange rate in Albania. In this paper is used a log liner model with quarterlydata. Other explanatory variables in this model are: foreign direct investment, remittances,real GDP per capita, openness. Variables are tested for unit root and cointegration. Theresults indicate that government spendingis associated with overvaluation of realexchange rate in Albania.JEL Classification: E62; F31Various studies have found that governmentspending can lead to overestimation orunderestimation of the real exchange rate, depending on the composition of theseexpenditures. The purpose of this paper is toassess the impact of government spendingon real exchange rate in Albania. In this paper is used a log liner model with quarterlydata. Other explanatory variables in this model are: foreign direct investment, remittances,real GDP per capita, openness. Variables are tested for unit root and cointegration. Theresults indicate that government spendingis associated with overvaluation of realexchange rate in Albania.JEL Classification: E62; F31

  18. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  19. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: "Speculation" in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    "Speculation" in non-financial companies in relation to exchange rate exposure management constitutes one of the contributing factors behind corporate (or more widespread) crises. Deviations from benchmark positions constitute speculation. An empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds...... that the larger the company (ability) and the larger its relative sale on foreign markets (relevance), the more likely the company will be to benchmark its exchange rate exposures. However, at the same time the very same factors (size and foreign sale) lead to more extensive speculation. Financial solvency (value...

  20. THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARYING EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandu Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The benefit of international trade is a more efficient employment of the productive forces of the world. (John Stuart Mill The exchange rate is a primary factor that influences economy. This instrument is used by some countries in order to improve the lack of balance caused as a result of the financial crisis felt in many countries considered by then infallible. The negative effects of the financial crisis can also be found in the decreased volume of commodities involved in international trade exchanges, as a consequence of modified prices and decreased offer. The globalizing trend leads to a constant expansion of exchanges between countries and to the consolidation of international cooperation. Except that economic interdependence generates an increased risk under the influence of economic, financial, monetary or political factors. The currency risk can generate either a gain or loss during foreign trade operations. The long period of RON depreciation made possible the entry of Romanian products on the international markets due to their prices. Sheltered by the gain generated by the evolution of the exchange rate, most of the exporters were not concerned by the increase of product competitiveness or by avoiding the currency risk. The fact that, for many years, the evolution of the exchange rate generated substantial losses for the exporters shows that risk coverage in Romania is, in most cases, a purely theoretical concept.

  1. Forecasting of Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Using Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. S. Kumar Chandar

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Foreign exchange market is the largest and the most important one in the world. Foreign exchange transaction is the simultaneous selling of one currency and buying of another currency. It is essential for currency trading in the international market. In this paper, we have investigated Artificial Neural Networks based prediction modelling of foreign exchange rates using five different training algorithms. The model was trained using historical data to predict four foreign currency exchange rates against Indian Rupee. The forecasting performance of the proposed system is evaluated by using statistical metric and compared. From the results, it is confirmed that the new approach provided an improve technique to forecast foreign exchange rate. It is also an effective tool and significantly close prediction can be made using simple structure. Among the five models, Levenberg-Marquardt based model outperforms than other models and attains comparable results. It also demonstrates the power of the proposed approach and produces more accurate prediction. In conclusion, the proposed scheme can improve the forecasting performance significantly when measured on three commonly used metrics.

  2. The new exchangers in refrigeration and air, conditioning applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marvillet, Ch. [CEA, 38 - Grenoble (France). GRETh

    1997-12-31

    The investigation carried out by the `heat exchangers` network has revealed a number of points which should be noted here at the beginning of this presentation. It has been observed that most of today`s products (fin and tube heat exchangers) are designed along traditional lines. However despite this `conservatism`, a lot of attention is found on the technical and innovative techniques used in other areas of the world (particularly in Japan). Moreover, some of these innovative techniques (micro fin tubes, louvered fins) tend to be more frequently applied than others, and their gradual introduction into products which are `made in the EEC` is to be expected. The purpose of this paper is to respond, at least partially, to the interest shown by the industries contacted. during this investigation in these new techniques. In the first chapter, an overview of the information available today on high performance thermal heat exchange surfaces will be given. Micro-fin tubes and louvered fins will be the two surfaces considered in the first part of this document. According to this investigation, the fin and tube heat exchanger remains the only product available today for evaporating and condensing refrigerant applications using air as the fluid to be treated. Other technological solutions exist, however; brazed fin and plate heat exchangers commonly used in applications where compactness is an essential quality will be examined in the second part of this document. Moreover, the use of fluids which will replace CFCS in the years to come, and the possible comeback of ammonia will certainly have consequences on the design of evaporators and condensers. In the third part of this document the effects of these changes on fin and tube heat exchangers will be evaluated, and the first published results of the use of substitution fluids will be discussed. (author) 16 refs.

  3. Foreign exchange rate entropy evolution during financial crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stosic, Darko; Stosic, Dusan; Ludermir, Teresa; de Oliveira, Wilson; Stosic, Tatijana

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the effects of financial crises on foreign exchange (FX) markets, where entropy evolution is measured for different exchange rates, using the time-dependent block entropy method. Empirical results suggest that financial crises are associated with significant increase of exchange rate entropy, reflecting instability in FX market dynamics. In accordance with phenomenological expectations, it is found that FX markets with large liquidity and large trading volume are more inert - they recover quicker from a crisis than markets with small liquidity and small trading volume. Moreover, our numerical analysis shows that periods of economic uncertainty are preceded by periods of low entropy values, which may serve as a tool for anticipating the onset of financial crises.

  4. Heat Exchange with Air and Temperature Profile of a Moving Oversize Tire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinchuk, P. S.; Fisenko, S. P.

    2016-11-01

    A one-dimensional mathematical model of heat transfer in a tire with account for the deformation energy dissipation and heat exchange of a moving tire with air has been developed. The mean temperature profiles are calculated and transition to a stationary thermal regime is considered. The influence of the rate of energy dissipation and of effective thermal conductivity of rubber on the temperature field is investigated quantitatively.

  5. Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets

    OpenAIRE

    Ledenyov, Dimitri O.; Ledenyov, Viktor O.

    2015-01-01

    The accurate forecast of the foreign currencies exchange rates at the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets is a main topic of our research: 1) the present state of the foreign currencies exchange markets in Asia, Europe and North America; 2) the research review on the classic forecast techniques of the foreign currencies exchange rates dynamics in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the classic finances theory; 3) the description on the qua...

  6. The credibility of the European exchange rate mechanism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knot, K.H.W.; Sturm, J.E.; de Haan, J.

    1998-01-01

    Using a panel data approach and three different credibility measures, we argue that unemployment, inflation, and budget deficits in participating countries have affected the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS. In contrast to most previous research, which focuses upon the credibili

  7. RMB's Exchange Rate Policy Shift Creates Opportunity for Neighboring Countries

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao Yingying

    2010-01-01

    @@ The Chinese Yuan showed a trend to rise against the U.S. Dollar after the announcement of the People's Bank of China, Chinas central bank, to proceed further with the reform of the Yuan's exchange rate regime. Other Asian currencies followed the upward move.

  8. Identification and Estimation of Exchange Rate Models with Unobservable Fundamentals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chambers, M.J.; McCrorie, J.R.

    2004-01-01

    This paper is concerned with issues of model specification, identification, and estimation in exchange rate models with unobservable fundamentals.We show that the model estimated by Gardeazabal, Reg´ulez and V´azquez (International Economic Review, 1997) is not identified and demonstrate how to spec

  9. Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonam, D.; Lukkezen, J.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By rais

  10. Exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the Portuguese target zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Portugal Duarte António

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyse the exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the participation of the Portuguese economy in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM of the European Monetary System (EMS based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. Portugal adopted this exchange rate target zone from April 6 1992 until December 31 1998. During this period, the exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Paul Krugman (1991 model. The analysis of the data also shows that exchange rate volatility tended to increase as the exchange rate approached the edges of the band, contrary to the predictions of the basic model. Interest rate differential volatility, on the other hand, seemed to behave in line with theoretical predictions. This suggests an increase in the credibility of monetary policy, allowing us to conclude that the adoption of a target zone has contributed decisively to the creation of the macroeconomic stability conditions necessary for the participation in the European Monetary Union (EMU. The Portuguese integration process should therefore be considered as an example to be followed by other small open economies in transition to the euro area.

  11. Relationship between Formation Water Rate, Equivalent Penetration Rate and Volume Flow Rate of Air in Air Drilling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Kexiong; Zhang Laibin; Jiang Hongwei

    2007-01-01

    Formation water invasion is the most troublesome problem associated with air drilling. However, it is not economical to apply mist drilling when only a small amount of water flows into wellbore from formation during air drilling. Formation water could be circulated out of the wellbore through increasing the gas injection rate. In this paper,the Angel model was modified by introducing Nikurade friction factor for the flow in coarse open holes and translating formation water rate into equivalent penetration rate. Thus the distribution of annular pressure and the relationship between minimum air injection rate and formation water rate were obtained. Real data verification indicated that the modified model is more accurate than the Angel model and can provide useful information for air drilling.

  12. Covariation of synaptonemal complex length and mammalian meiotic exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Audrey; Koehler, Kara E; Judis, LuAnn; Chan, Ernest R; Cherry, Jonathan P; Schwartz, Stuart; Seftel, Allen; Hunt, Patricia A; Hassold, Terry J

    2002-06-21

    Analysis of recombination between loci (linkage analysis) has been a cornerstone of human genetic research, enabling investigators to localize and, ultimately, identify genetic loci. However, despite these efforts little is known about patterns of meiotic exchange in human germ cells or the mechanisms that control these patterns. Using recently developed immunofluorescence methodology to examine exchanges in human spermatocytes, we have identified remarkable variation in the rate of recombination within and among individuals. Subsequent analyses indicate that, in humans and mice, this variation is linked to differences in the length of the synaptonemal complex. Thus, at least in mammals, a physical structure, the synaptonemal complex, reflects genetic rather than physical distance.

  13. Effectiveness of high interest rate policy on exchange rates: A reexamination of the Asian financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin Diew Lai

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most controversial issues in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis has been the appropriate response of monetary policy to a sharp decline in the value of some currencies. In this paper, we empirically examine the effects on Asian exchange rates of sharply higher interest rates during the Asian financial crisis. Taking account of the currency contagion effect, our results indicate that sharply higher interest rates helped to support the exchange rates of South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. For Malaysia, no significant causal relation is found from the rate of interest to exchange rates, as the authorities in Malaysia did not actively adopt a high interest rate policy to defend the currency.

  14. 12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Minimum Capital Components for Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts A Appendix A to Subpart A of Part 1750 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF... Components for Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts 1. The minimum capital components for interest rate and foreign exchange rate contracts are computed on the basis of the credit...

  15. Rate of radiocarbon retention onto calcite by isotope exchange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lempinen, Janne; Lehto, Jukka [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Lab. of Radiochemistry

    2016-11-01

    Radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) is a top priority class radionuclide associated with the long-term safety of spent nuclear fuel disposal. Dissolved inorganic radiocarbon can be retained in bedrock via isotope exchange with calcite (CaCO{sub 3}) at solubility equilibrium with groundwater. In the present study, the rate of the isotope exchange process was investigated on synthetic calcite using batch experiments. Experiments were performed in solutions with a calcium concentration of 0.0002-0.1 M, including two synthetic reference groundwaters. The radiocarbon activity in the solutions decreased exponentially as a function of time, thus following first-order kinetics. The rate of isotope exchange was quantified from an exponential fit to the activity data over time. The rate of radiocarbon retention increased as a function of the calcium activity. The isotope exchange half-life was only 4.3 days at calcium ion activities over 0.01. This half-life is very much shorter than the half-life of {sup 14}C or the time scale of groundwater movements; consequently calcite can effectively retain radiocarbon from brackish and saline groundwaters.

  16. The theory and crisis of free floating exchange rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. TAMBORINI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Following the end of the Bretton Woods system faith in a freely floating exchange rate regime, and in particular the complete Laissez-faire policy of the US after 1980, was supported by a large and influential literature - the so-called "stock theory of the exchange rate" - which has had almost absolute dominance in the field. The present work is of primarily a theoretical nature, calling attention to the recent drastic change of opinion regarding the efficiency of foreign exchange markets, of expectations and speculation. In contrast to the previously held belief, agents that anticipate the market are now accused of inefficient, if not irrational behaviour; they are said to be misinterpreting or violating the "hard data" that should lead the market on the path of equilibrium. According to the author, this new vein is challenging, yet the new "bad" deus ex machina is as unconvincing as its "good" predecessors. Thus, the focus is precisely on the fundamental factors of the dynamics of exchange rates in the current environment of integrated finance.

  17. Exchange Rate Forecasting Using Entropy Optimized Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijian He

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate is one of the key variables in the international economics and international trade. Its movement constitutes one of the most important dynamic systems, characterized by nonlinear behaviors. It becomes more volatile and sensitive to increasingly diversified influencing factors with higher level of deregulation and global integration worldwide. Facing the increasingly diversified and more integrated market environment, the forecasting model in the exchange markets needs to address the individual and interdependent heterogeneity. In this paper, we propose the heterogeneous market hypothesis- (HMH- based exchange rate modeling methodology to model the micromarket structure. Then we further propose the entropy optimized wavelet-based forecasting algorithm under the proposed methodology to forecast the exchange rate movement. The multivariate wavelet denoising algorithm is used to separate and extract the underlying data components with distinct features, which are modeled with multivariate time series models of different specifications and parameters. The maximum entropy is introduced to select the best basis and model parameters to construct the most effective forecasting algorithm. Empirical studies in both Chinese and European markets have been conducted to confirm the significant performance improvement when the proposed model is tested against the benchmark models.

  18. Effects of flow rate and temperature on cyclic gas exchange in tsetse flies (Diptera, Glossinidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terblanche, John S; Chown, Steven L

    2010-05-01

    Air flow rates may confound the investigation and classification of insect gas exchange patterns. Here we report the effects of flow rates (50, 100, 200, 400 ml min(-1)) on gas exchange patterns in wild-caught Glossina morsitans morsitans from Zambia. At rest, G. m. morsitans generally showed continuous or cyclic gas exchange (CGE) but no evidence of discontinuous gas exchange (DGE). Flow rates had little influence on the ability to detect CGE in tsetse, at least in the present experimental setup and under these laboratory conditions. Importantly, faster flow rates resulted in similar gas exchange patterns to those identified at lower flower rates suggesting that G. m. morsitans did not show DGE which had been incorrectly identified as CGE at lower flow rates. While CGE cycle frequency was significantly different among the four flow rates (prate treatment variation. Using a laboratory colony of closely related, similar-sized G. morsitans centralis we subsequently investigated the effects of temperature, gender and feeding status on CGE pattern variation since these factors can influence insect metabolic rates. At 100 ml min(-1) CGE was typical of G. m. centralis at rest, although it was significantly more common in females than in males (57% vs. 43% of 14 individuals tested per gender). In either sex, temperature (20, 24, 28 and 32 degrees C) had little influence on the number of individuals showing CGE. However, increases in metabolic rate with temperature were modulated largely by increases in burst volume and cycle frequency. This is unusual among insects showing CGE or DGE patterns because increases in metabolic rate are usually modulated by increases in frequency, but either no change or a decline in burst volume.

  19. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action generated macro - financial stability in terms of inflation and price fluctuation. However, in terms of microeconomic aspects, the unilateral adaptation of Euro as the official currency of Kosovo failed to provide microeconomic advantages such as to export stimulation, and so forth. The main exchange rate regime systems were discussed focusing in their advantages and disadvantages, and it was concluded that there is no commonly accepted theory regarding the optimality of exchange rate regimes. In addition, the global financial crisis impact in the financial system of Kosovo is also discussed and it was found that negative impacts of global financial crisis were moderate and indirect.

  20. Air side thermal performance of wavy fin heat exchangers produced by selective laser melting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuehndel, J.; Kerler, B.; Karcher, C.

    2016-09-01

    Wavy fins are widely used for off-road vehicle coolers, due to their dust resistance. In this study, heat exchanger elements with wavy fins were examined in an experimental study. Due to independence of tooling and degrees of freedom in design, rapid prototyping technique selective laser melting was used to produce heat exchanger elements with high dimensional accuracy. Tests were conducted for air side Reynolds number Re of 1400-7400 varying wavy amplitude and wave length at a constant water flow rate of 9.0m3/h inside the tubes. The effects of wavy amplitude and wave length on the air side thermal performance were studied. Experimental correlation equations for Nu and ­ were derived by regression analysis.

  1. Determination of the optimal exchange rate via control of the domestic interest rate in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Virtue Ekhosuehi; Sunday Ogbonmwan

    2014-01-01

    We consider an economic scenario where the government seeks to achieve a favourable balance-of-payments over a fixed planning horizon through exchange rate policy and control of the domestic interest rate. We view the dynamics of such an economy as a bounded optimal control problem where the exchange rate is the state variable and the domestic interest rate is the control variable. The idea of balance-of-payments is used as a theoretical underpinning to specify the objective function. By assu...

  2. The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on exports: the case of Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Orhan KARACA; Saatcioğlu, Cem

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we examined the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and exports in Turkey. Sample period of the study is 1981, May 1, the date Turkey introduced flexible exchange rate system after quiting fixed exchange rate system, and 2001, February 22 when exchange rates were left floating. The results of this study, in which quarterly data are used, indicate that exchange rate uncertainty affects exports negatively in Turkey. This finding is valid both for long-run and short-run.

  3. HEDGER BEHAVIOUR AND ITS IMPACT ON ORDER FLOW AND EXCHANGE RATE ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skoupil Lubomír

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces the author’s original model which describes the main behavioural traits of the foreign exchange hedger who is trying to minimise her FX market risk exposure and secure foreign currency liquidity, in order to be able to settle her liabilities in a  timely manner. This behaviour is then analysed in the context of several exogenous shocks to prices and exchange rates and implications of how order flow and exchange rates react to this behaviour are drawn based on the theoretical framework. In Chapter 2, the conclusions on expected patterns in exchange rate evolution reached in the theoretical part are tested using the fuzzy clustering technique. The hypotheses reached in the theoretical section were partially supported by the empirical analysis: some of the expected patterns were revealed by the data during shock periods of prices of Brent Oil, Dow Jones Industrial Index, Standard and Poor’s 500 and four currency pairs (EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, EURCZK

  4. TESTING FOR LONG MEMORY IN THE ASIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Abdol S. SOOFI; Shouyang WANG; Yuqin ZHANG

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we use the plug-in and Whittle methods that are based on spectral regression analysis to test for the long memory property in 12 Asian/dollar daily exchange rates. The results according to the plug-in method show that with the exception of Chinese renminbi all series may have long memory properties. The results based on the Whittle method, on the other hand, show that only Japanese yen and Malaysian ringgit may have long memory properties. It is well known that inference about the differencing parameter, d, in presence of structural break in a series entails considerable difficulties. Therefore, given the financial crisis of 1997-1998 in Asia, further tests for unravelling of the memory property and presence of structural break in the exchange rate series are required.

  5. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  6. Hybrid empirical mode decomposition- ARIMA for forecasting exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadan, Siti Sarah; Shabri, Ani; Ismail, Shuhaida

    2015-02-01

    This paper studied the forecasting of monthly Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)/ United State Dollar (USD) exchange rates using the hybrid of two methods which are the empirical model decomposition (EMD) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). MYR is pegged to USD during the Asian financial crisis causing the exchange rates are fixed to 3.800 from 2nd of September 1998 until 21st of July 2005. Thus, the chosen data in this paper is the post-July 2005 data, starting from August 2005 to July 2010. The comparative study using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) showed that the EMD-ARIMA outperformed the single-ARIMA and the random walk benchmark model.

  7. THE IMPACT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE ON THE COMMERCIALS FLOWS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela IAVORSCHI

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The liberalization of capital movements between states and of the trade of goods and services, are one of the most important phenomena in the current world economy. The purpose of the present study, in the case of Romania, is to answer the question whether the interventions by means of the exchange rate of the national currency contributes to the fluidization and improvement of the commercial trades. The study demonstrates that the leu devaluation does not lead to a substantial increase of the exports. As a mechanism of influence of the commercials flows, the exchange rate has a short-term influence and the economy requires structural reforms, meant to stimulate the growth of the economic competitiveness.

  8. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  9. A stability dependent theory for air-sea gas exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, David J.

    1993-05-01

    The influence of thermal stability at the air-sea interface on computed values of the transfer velocities of trace gases is examined. The novel "whitecap" model for air-sea gas exchange of Monahan and Spillane (1984), extended here to include thermal stability effects, is linked with an atmospheric general circulation model to compute global transfer velocity patterns of a climate reactive gas, CO2. The important terms in the model equations such as the whitecap coverage, friction velocity, neutral and local drag coefficients and the stability parameter ψm(Z/L) are discussed and analyzed. The atmospheric surface level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sea surface temperature, obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model 1 (CCM1) are used to drive algorithms describing the air-sea transfer velocity of trace gases. The transfer velocity for CO2 (kCO2) is then computed for each 2.8° × 2.8° latitudinal-longitudinal area every 24 hours for 5 years of the seasonal-hydro runs of the CCM1. The new model results are compared to previously proposed formulations using the identical CCM1 forcing terms. Air-sea thermal stability effects on the transfer velocity for CO2 are most important at mid-high wind speeds. Where cold air from continental interiors is transported over relatively warm oceanic waters, the transfer velocities are enhanced over neutral stability values. The depression of computed kCO2 values when warm air resides over cold water is especially important, due to asymmetry in the stability dependence of the drag coefficient. The stability influence is 20% to 50% of kCO2 for modest air-sea temperature differences and up to 100% for extreme cases of stability or instability. The stability dependent "whitecap" model, using the transfer velocity coefficients for whitecap and nonwhitecap areas suggested by Monahan and Spillane (1984), produces CO2 transfer velocities that range from 13 to 50 cm h-1 for a

  10. Exchange rate system and policy in the present world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubišić Zoran

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime is important, not only in terms of its effect on trade flows, but also with respect to inflation expectations. Countries facing disinflation may find that pegs regimes are more appropriate solution. But where the trade balance account is significantly deteriorated and growth has been sluggish, a more flexible regime might be called for. The natural classification in eighties and early nineties suggests that intermediate regimes may provide important advantages – to capture some of the benefits of both extremes while avoiding many of the costs. However today many experts predicted that exchange rate regimes would move in a "bipolar" manner to the extremes of "hard" pegs or free floats. An increasing number of countries did announce their intent to allow greater exchange rate flexibility. But, in practice, countries had a "fear of floating ". Distinction is made among advanced, emerging and other developing countries. Emerging markets have stronger links to international capital markets than do other developing economies. Thus, while non-emerging market developing economies may gain credibility through pegging their exchange rates, emerging markets find it harder to do so and could benefit from investing in "learning to float". More advanced economies with their access to international capital market are best positioned to enjoy the benefits of flexibility. It is found that the proportion of countries adopting intermediate regimes has indeed been shrinking in favor of greater flexibility or greater fixity, especially for countries more integrated with international markets. But, there is no final conclusion on the idea that intermediate regimes will dissapear.

  11. MODELING THE CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE. METHODS AND PRINCIPLES

    OpenAIRE

    Suslov, Mark; Tregub, Ilona

    2015-01-01

    Since currency market is strongly and rapidly developing then it becomes more attractive area for investments, but, also, economic conditions force almost everyone be more financially educated and ready for changes in economic conditions. Currency is the money we pay for the goods and services in our country, but some of them are importing to our country or expressed in foreign currency values. Unfortunately, nobody can predict exact exchange rate, but there is a possibility to get ready for ...

  12. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE AND THE RISK OF EXCHANGE RATE

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia Villegas, Emilio; Facultad de Ciencias Contables, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos

    2014-01-01

    Three major aspects are highlighted in international finance), international risks b) international opportunities and c) market imperfections. International risk-financial risks become relevant and insids them the risk of exchange rate that during the last years due to constant fluctuations of currencies like the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, pound sterling and the euro have impacted economic and financial situation of enterprises. In recent years has been real important to strengthen the senior...

  13. THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARYING EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    OpenAIRE

    Sandu Carmen

    2011-01-01

    The benefit of international trade is a more efficient employment of the productive forces of the world. (John Stuart Mill) The exchange rate is a primary factor that influences economy. This instrument is used by some countries in order to improve the lack of balance caused as a result of the financial crisis felt in many countries considered by then infallible. The negative effects of the financial crisis can also be found in the decreased volume of commodities involved in international tra...

  14. RESULTS OF INTERBANK EXCHANGE RATES FORECASTING USING STATE SPACE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Kashif

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the performance of three alternative models for forecasting daily interbank exchange rate of U.S. dollar measured in Pak rupees. The simple ARIMA models and complex models such as GARCH-type models and a state space model are discussed and compared. Four different measures are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The main result is the state space model provides the best performance among all the models.

  15. Forecasting daily and monthly exchange rates with machine learning techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Papadimitriou, Theophilos; Gogas, Periklis; Plakandaras, Vasilios

    2013-01-01

    We combine signal processing to machine learning methodologies by introducing a hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model in order to forecast the monthly and daily Euro (EUR)/United States Dollar (USD), USD/Japanese Yen (JPY), Australian Dollar (AUD)/Norwegian Krone (NOK), New Zealand Dollar (NZD)/Brazilian Real (BRL) and South African Rand (ZAR)/Philippine Peso (PHP) exchange rates. After th...

  16. Chilean Nominal Exchange Rate: Forecasting Based Upon Technical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ana María Abarca; Felipe Alarcón; Pablo Pincheira; Jorge Selaive

    2007-01-01

    : This work presents a review of the main indicators used in the technical analysis of the peso-dollar parity. We explain the interpretations carried out by technical analysts of these indicators and perform forecasting analysis of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to predict exchange rate returns at daily frequency. The predictive exercises are done using both in-sample and out-of-sample techniques, and report a robust forecasting ability for horizons within 7 weeks.

  17. Sublimation rate of TNT microcrystals in air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershanik, Arcady P; Zeiri, Yehuda

    2010-12-02

    Reliable measurements of the sublimation rate of nonuniform layers of trinitrotoluene (TNT) microcrystals were carried out using a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM). The sample layer was prepared by precipitation of TNT from a well-defined volume of its solution in acetonitrile. The TNT solution was placed on the QCM electrode surface to form the precipitated layer of TNT microcrystals. It is shown that the kinetics of small TNT particles sublimation is controlled by the molecular diffusion in air. The sublimation process is well described by simple diffusion expressions that are discussed in the literature for both individual hemispherical-shaped microcrystals and disk-shaped layers. Expressions describing particle size evolution in time were derived based on this diffusion model. It is shown that the expressions developed can be used to simulate particle sublimation in a wide size range, including very small sub-micrometer particles.

  18. The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harun Yuksel

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility, export prices and weighed GDP of most of the trading partners of Turkey on aggregate exports for the period from 2003:2 to 2010:12. The primary focus is the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports from Turkey. To achieve this purpose, various approaches were employed previously. In line with the previous studies, the OLS regression method was employed. Appropriate tests to ensure the reliability of the analysis were undertaken. Time series data were used for the analysis. Cross correlation to determine the relationship between the pairs of variables was utilized. Our results indicated that there was a negative relationship between exports and volatility; however, this relationship was not significant at a level of 5%. Even though there were many studies exploring the impact of the volatility of the exchange rate on exports, there was no consensus for validation of the results among these various studies. This topic was chosen since there were few studies about Turkey's case, while in contrast, there have been innumerable studies made outside of Turkey.

  19. 26 CFR 1.989(b)-1 - Definition of weighted average exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 10 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Definition of weighted average exchange rate. 1... average exchange rate. For purposes of section 989(b)(3) and (4), the term “weighted average exchange rate” means the simple average of the daily exchange rates (determined by reference to a qualified source...

  20. Computational Fluid Dynamic Modeling of Horizontal Air-Ground Heat Exchangers (HAGHE for HVAC Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Maria Congedo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to satisfy the requirements of Directive 2010/31/EU for Zero Energy Buildings (ZEB, innovative solutions were investigated for building HVAC systems. Horizontal air-ground heat exchangers (HAGHE offer a significant contribution in reducing energy consumption for ventilation, using the thermal energy stored underground, in order to pre-heat or pre-cool the ventilation air, in winter and summer, respectively. This is particularly interesting in applications for industrial, commercial and education buildings where keeping the indoor air quality under control is extremely important. Experimental measurements show that, throughout the year, the outside air temperature fluctuations are mitigated at sufficient ground depth (about 3 m because of the high thermal inertia of the soil, the ground temperature is relatively constant and instead higher than that of the outside air in winter and lower in summer. The study aims to numerically investigate the behavior of HAGHE by varying the air flow rate and soil conductivity in unsteady conditions by using annual weather data of South-East Italy. The analysis shows that, in warm climates, the HAGHE brings a real advantage for only a few hours daily in winter, while it shows significant benefits in the summer for the cooling of ventilation air up to several temperature degrees, already by a short pipe.

  1. Moment generating function approach to pricing interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, T.K.; Yao, Y.

    2002-01-01

    This paper uses moment generating functions to provide a general framework to model international term structures and to price interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims. When moment generating functions of state variables have a closed-form formula, closed-form formulas for bond prices are avai

  2. Oil Prices and Interest Rates: Do They Determine the Exchange Rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, I. A.; Old, J. L.

    1986-01-01

    Argues that the relationship between the British pound sterling, interest rates, and oil prices has been overemphasized by economic commentators because they ignored a basic economic theory about the determination of the exchange rate. Provides an example and suggestions for follow up instruction. (Author/JDH)

  3. INTEREST-RATE DIFFERENTIALS AND EXCHANGE-RATE POLICIES IN AUSTRIA, THE NETHERLANDS, AND BELGIUM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KNOT, K; DEHAAN, J

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, the small, but persistent interest rate differentials via-a-vis Germany which have existed in Austria, the Netherlands, and Belgium are analysed. These interest differentials may be thought of to consist of three parts: expected exchange rate movements within the band, expected change

  4. A Comparative Study of Weights and Sizes of Flat-Plate Exhaust-Gas-to-Air Heat Exchangers with and without Fins

    Science.gov (United States)

    1947-07-01

    tests of both heat exchangers, air or-d exhauj’t-gaa flow rates wtre mnr.sur’sd with venturi motors located downstream from the heat exchanger. Air...cas— flow ratoa aa di.torrin.jd froo the venturi notor. TEST rBOCEDUPE Flii^it toatJn3 of tho host exchangers wr.3 conduced to evaluate their tho...Static pressures upstrean and downctroTa frca tho hoat- oxchangor core wore raacurod with etat5c tubos , and air flow rates ware raacurcd vith n vonturi

  5. Optimal choice of an exchange rate regime: a critical literature review

    OpenAIRE

    Ouchen, Mariam

    2013-01-01

    This paper set out to review the main theories and empirical methods employed in selecting an appropriate exchange rate regime.In order to achieve this, the paper is organized as follows : Section 2 introduces the distinct classifications of exchange regimes(de jure exchange rate regimes versus the facto exchange rate regimes), and the different theoretical approaches which illustrate how an optimal exchange rate regime is determined . Despite their initial popularity, the theoretical consi...

  6. Random walk theory and exchange rate dynamics in transition economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gradojević Nikola

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the validity of the random walk theory in the Euro-Serbian dinar exchange rate market. We apply Andrew Lo and Archie MacKinlay's (1988 conventional variance ratio test and Jonathan Wright's (2000 non-parametric ranks and signs based variance ratio tests to the daily Euro/Serbian dinar exchange rate returns using the data from January 2005 - December 2008. Both types of variance ratio tests overwhelmingly reject the random walk hypothesis over the data span. To assess the robustness of our findings, we examine the forecasting performance of a non-linear, nonparametric model in the spirit of Francis Diebold and James Nason (1990 and find that it is able to significantly improve upon the random walk model, thus confirming the existence of foreign exchange market imperfections in a small transition economy such as Serbia. In the last part of the paper, we conduct a comparative study on how our results relate to those of other transition economies in the region.

  7. Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavárek Daniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the evolution of effective exchange rates in nine Central and Eastern European countries in terms of development trends, volatility and cyclicality. Consequently, it provides direct empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between effective exchange rates and selected macroeconomic fundamentals, addressing a key precondition of numerous exchange rate determination models and theories that attempt to explain the role of exchange rates in the economy. The results suggest that flexible exchange rate arrangements are reflected in both nominal and real effective exchange rates having higher volatility and variability. Furthermore, the results provide mixed evidence in terms of intensity, direction and cyclicality, but show a weak correlation between exchange rates and fundamentals. Sufficiently high coefficients are found only for money supply. Consequently, using fundamentals for the determination of exchange rates and using the exchange rate to explain economic development may be of limited use for the countries analyzed.

  8. Modeling of Air Temperature for Heat Exchange due to Vertical Turbulence and Horizontal Air Flow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Lei; MENG Qing-lin

    2009-01-01

    In order to calculate the air temperature of the near surface layer in urban environment,the Sur-face layer air was divided into several layers in the vertical direction,and some energy bakmce equations were de-veloped for each air layer,in which the heat exchange due to vertical turbulence and horizontal air flow was tak-en into account.Then,the vertical temperature distribution of the surface layer air was obtained through the coupled calculation using the energy balance equations of underlying surfaces and building walls.Moreover,the measured air temperatures in a small area (with a horizontal scale of less than 500 m) and a large area (with ahorizontal scale of more than 1000 m) in Guangzhou in summer were used to validate the proposed model.The calculated results agree well with the measured ones,with a maximum relative error of 4.18%.It is thus con-cluded that the proposed model is a high-accuracy method to theoretically analyze the urban heat island and the thermal environment.

  9. An experimental investigation on air-side performances of finned tube heat exchangers for indirect air-cooling tower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Du Xueping

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A tremendous quantity of water can be saved if the air cooling system is used, comparing with the ordinary water-cooling technology. In this study, two kinds of finned tube heat exchangers in an indirect air-cooling tower are experimentally studied, which are a plain finned oval-tube heat exchanger and a wavy-finned flat-tube heat exchanger in a cross flow of air. Four different air inlet angles (90°, 60 °, 45°, and 30° are tested separately to obtain the heat transfer and resistance performance. Then the air-side experimental correlations of the Nusselt number and friction factor are acquired. The comprehensive heat transfer performances for two finned tube heat exchangers under four air inlet angles are compared. For the plain finned oval-tube heat exchanger, the vertical angle (90° has the worst performance while 45° and 30° has the best performance at small ReDc and at large ReDc, respectively. For the wavy-finned flat-tube heat exchanger, the worst performance occurred at 60°, while the best performance occurred at 45° and 90° at small ReDc and at large ReDc, respectively. From the comparative results, it can be found that the air inlet angle has completely different effects on the comprehensive heat transfer performance for the heat exchangers with different structures.

  10. Dynamic model of counter flow air to air heat exchanger for comfort ventilation with condensation and frost formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Toke Rammer; Rose, Jørgen; Kragh, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    In cold climates heat recovery in the ventilation system is essential to reduce heating energy demand. Condensation and freezing occur often in efficient heat exchangers used in cold climates. To develop efficient heat exchangers and defrosting strategies for cold climates, heat and mass transfer...... must be calculated under conditions with condensation and freezing. This article presents a dynamic model of a counter flow air to air heat exchanger taking into account condensation and freezing and melting of ice. The model is implemented in Simulink and results are compared to measurements...... on a prototype heat exchanger for cold climates....

  11. Air Leakage Rates in Typical Air Barrier Assemblies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hun, Diana E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Atchley, Jerald Allen [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Childs, Phillip W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Estimates for 2010 indicate that infiltration in residential buildings was responsible for 2.85 quads of energy (DOE 2014), which is about 3% of the total energy consumed in the US. One of the mechanisms being implemented to reduce this energy penalty is the use of air barriers as part of the building envelope. These technologies decrease airflow through major leakage sites such as oriented strand board (OSB) joints, and gaps around penetrations (e.g., windows, doors, pipes, electrical outlets) as indicated by Hun et al. (2014). However, most air barrier materials do not properly address leakage spots such as wall-to-roof joints and wall-to-foundation joints because these are difficult to seal, and because air barrier manufacturers usually do not provide adequate instructions for these locations. The present study focuses on characterizing typical air leakage sites in wall assemblies with air barrier materials.

  12. Is the Exchange Rate Predictable in the Long-Run?

    OpenAIRE

    Soowon Mo; Wookil Cho

    1994-01-01

    The short-run and long-run forecasts of exchange rates based on the three structural models are compared to those based on the random walk model. The long—run forecasts are generated by the error—correction equations of the Johansen's multivariate cointegration technique. The results show that while the random walk model outperforms the structural models in the short—run forecasting, the structural models outperform the random walk in the long—run forecasting. Our results indicate tha...

  13. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  14. Testing of heat exchangers in membrane oxygenators using air pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Carole; Stein, Jutta; Seidler, Rainer; Kind, Robert; Beck, Karin; Tosok, Jürgen; Upterfofel, Jörg

    2006-03-01

    All heat exchangers (HE) in membrane oxygenators are tested by the manufacturer for water leaks during the production phase. However, for safety reasons, it is highly recommended that HEs be tested again before clinical use. The most common method is to attach the heater-cooler to the HE and allow the water to recirculate for at least 10 min, during which time a water leak should be evident. To improve the detection of water leaks, a test was devised using a pressure manometer with an integrated bulb used to pressurize the HE with air. The cardiopulmonary bypass system is set up as per protocol. A pressure manometer adapted to a 1/2" tubing is connected to the water inlet side of the oxygenator. The water outlet side is blocked with a short piece of 1/2" deadend tubing. The HE is pressurized with 250 mmHg for at least 30 sec and observed for any drop. Over the last 2 years, only one oxygenator has been detected with a water leak in which the air-method leaktest was performed. This unit was sent back to the manufacturer who confirmed the failure. Even though the incidence of water leaks is very low, it does occur and it is, therefore, important that all HEs are tested before they are used clinically. This method of using a pressure manometer offers many advantages, as the HE can be tested outside of the operating room (OR), allowing earlier testing of the oxygenator, no water contact is necessary, and it is simple, easy and quick to perform.

  15. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Trifonova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of public debt?

  16. How do Macroeconomic and Political Variables Affect the Flexibility of Exchange Rate Regime?

    OpenAIRE

    Mehmet Guclu

    2009-01-01

    The choice of exchange rate regime has become one of the most important issues once more in many economies after the financial crises in recent years. In the wake of the financial crises, many countries, especially emerging market economies, opted for floating exchange rate regimes by forsaking the pegged regimes. Consequently, an old debate on the choice and determinants of exchange rate regimes has been triggered. Economists have started to debate what appropriate exchange rate regime for a...

  17. Exchange Rate Instability: Japan's Micro-Macro Experiences and Implications for China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mamoru Ishida

    2006-01-01

    Since 1985, the yen-dollar exchange rates repeatedly fluctuated and climbed to a level that could not be justified by economic fundamentals. The impacts on the Japanese economy were serious and far-reaching.Since 21 July 2005, China has been moving toward a more flexible exchange rate regime. Keeping RMB exchange rates basically stable and providing Chinese industries with means to hedge exchange rate risks are essential for China's sound economic development.

  18. Effect of Environmental Deflector on Air Exchange in Slurry Pit and Concentration Distribution in a Two-dimensional Ventilation Chamber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Guohong; Zhang, Guoqiang; Ravn, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Variations of air exchanges in slurry pit with four angles of an environmental deflector, namely 0° (parallel to the side wall or without deflector), 30°, 45° and 90°, were investigated using a tracer gas method. The investigations were performed in a two-dimensional ventilation chamber in the Air...... physics Lab, University of Aarhus. Ventilation rates used in the experiments were 100 and 200 m3/h. The experiment results showed that using the deflectors of 30°, 45° and 90° the airflow patterns were obviously changed in the room space near the slatted floor and in the head space of the pit compared...... with the setup without deflector. It was also found that of all the deflector angle performances with respect to air-exchange ratio and concentration distribution, the deflector position of 45° in two airflow rates cases behaved better with the lowest pit ventilation and the highest concentration in the head...

  19. Carbon-foam finned tubes in air-water heat exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Qijun [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, N6A 5B8 (Canada)]. E-mail: qyu4@eng.uwo.ca; Straatman, Anthony G. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, N6A 5B8 (Canada)]. E-mail: astraatman@eng.uwo.ca; Thompson, Brian E. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, K1N 6N5 (Canada)]. E-mail: thompson@eng.uottawa.ca

    2006-02-01

    An engineering model is formulated to account for the effects of porosity and pore diameter on the hydrodynamic and thermal performance of a carbon-foam finned tube heat exchanger. The hydrodynamic and thermal resistances are obtained from well-established correlations that are extended herein to account for the influence of the porous carbon foam. The influence of the foam is characterized on the basis of a unit-cube geometric model that describes the internal structure, the exposed surface, the permeability and the effective conductivity as a function of porosity and pore diameter. The engineering model is validated by comparison with experiments that characterize heat transfer in an air-water radiator made from porous carbon foam. The model is also used in to conduct a parametric study to show the influence of the porosity and pore diameter of the foam. The parametric study suggests that in comparison to conventional aluminum finned-tube radiators, improvements of approximately 15% in thermal performance are possible without changing the frontal area, or the air flow rate and pressure drop. The engineering model developed herein can be used by engineers to assess quantitatively the suitability of porous carbon foam as a fin material in the design of air-water heat exchangers.

  20. Carbon-foam finned tubes in air-water heat exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Qijun; Straatman, Anthony G. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, The University of Western Ontario, London, ON (Canada); Thompson, Brian E. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2006-02-01

    An engineering model is formulated to account for the effects of porosity and pore diameter on the hydrodynamic and thermal performance of a carbon-foam finned tube heat exchanger. The hydrodynamic and thermal resistances are obtained from well-established correlations that are extended herein to account for the influence of the porous carbon foam. The influence of the foam is characterized on the basis of a unit-cube geometric model that describes the internal structure, the exposed surface, the permeability and the effective conductivity as a function of porosity and pore diameter. The engineering model is validated by comparison with experiments that characterize heat transfer in an air-water radiator made from porous carbon foam. The model is also used in to conduct a parametric study to show the influence of the porosity and pore diameter of the foam. The parametric study suggests that in comparison to conventional aluminum finned-tube radiators, improvements of approximately 15% in thermal performance are possible without changing the frontal area, or the air flow rate and pressure drop. The engineering model developed herein can be used by engineers to assess quantitatively the suitability of porous carbon foam as a fin material in the design of air-water heat exchangers. (author)

  1. A firm-specific exposure analyis of the exchange-rate exposure of Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.; Ligterink, J.; Macrae, V.

    2006-01-01

    We examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50 per cent of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a depreciati

  2. Capital Controls and Foreign Investor Subsidies Implicit in South Africa's Dual Exchange Rate System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Windt, P.C.; Schaling, E.; Huizinga, H.P.

    2007-01-01

    Both in theory and practice, capital controls and dual exchange rate systems can be part of a country's optimal tax policy. We first show how a dual exchange rate system can be interpreted as a tax (or subsidy) on international capital income. We show that a dual exchange rate system, with separate

  3. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates : How to Solve the Puzzles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US do

  4. Liaison of Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Variables: A Case Study of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aneel Salman

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate plays a significant role in the economic growth of a country because it has also a close relationship to some major macroeconomic variables like Gross Domestic Product (GDP, interest rate, current account and inflation etc. All these variables are adversely affected by uncertainty or fluctuations in exchange rate. The objective of this paper was to find out the relationship between the exchange rate and other above mentioned macroeconomic variables. The paper not only described the relationship but also defined the nature of the relationship between the selected variables. The results showed that exchange rate has a long run relationship to GDP, inflation, interest rate and current account. Granger Causality test concluded that there was unidirectional causal relationship between exchange rate and GDP and the direction of causal relationship run from exchange rate to GDP. There were also some policy implications suggested for the stability in exchange rate and removing the adverse effects of uncertainty in Pakistan.

  5. Solvent Exchange in Liquid Methanol and Rate Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dang, Liem X.; Schenter, Gregory K.

    2016-01-01

    To enhance our understanding of the solvent exchange mechanism in liquid methanol, we report a systematic study of this process using molecular dynamics simulations. We use transition state theory, the Impey-Madden-McDonald method, the reactive flux method, and Grote-Hynes theory to compute the rate constants for this process. Solvent coupling was found to dominate, resulting in a significantly small transmission coefficient. We predict a positive activation volume for the methanol exchange process. The essential features of the dynamics of the system as well as the pressure dependence are recovered from a Generalized Langevin Equation description of the dynamics. We find that the dynamics and response to anharmonicity can be decomposed into two time regimes, one corresponding to short time response (< 0.1 ps) and long time response (> 5 ps). An effective characterization of the process results from launching dynamics from the planar hypersurface corresponding to Grote-Hynes theory. This results in improved numerical convergence of correlation functions. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences. The calculations were carried out using computer resources provided by the Office of Basic Energy Sciences.

  6. Injection of Helium 3 and SF{sub 6} in a lake for the determination of gaseous exchange rates at the water-air interface: implementation, analysis and experimental results; Injection d`helium-3 et SF{sub 6} en lac pour la determination des coefficients gazeux a l`interface eau-air: deploiement, analyse et resultats experimentaux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poisson, A. [Paris-6 Univ., 75 (France); Jean-Baptiste, P. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Direction des Sciences de la Matiere

    1994-12-31

    In order to study the hypothesis of an under-rating of the exchange velocity at the ocean-atmosphere interface that could explain the lack of CO{sub 2} in the global CO{sub 2} balance, an experiment was carried out in two lakes at the Kerguelen Islands where strong winds are common, in order to evaluate precisely the relation between the transfer coefficient and the wind velocity: {sup 3}He and SF{sub 6} tracers were injected in the lakes; concentration evolutions were recorded and results are shown to validate the above assumption. 6 figs., 1 tab., 9 refs.

  7. The Appropriate Model and Dependence Measures of Thailand’s Exchange Rate and Malaysia’s Exchange Rate: Linear, Nonlinear and Copulas Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pisit Leeahtam

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study are to find the fitting model and dependence measures of both Thailand’s exchange rate and Malaysia’s exchange rate during, between, and after the World’s recent financial crises based on linear, nonlinear and empirical copula approaches.The results of the study confirm that the nonlinear model (NNTs is an appropriate model for Thailand’s exchange rate return in percentage during the periods of 2008-2011but not for Malaysia’s exchange rate return. Based on empirical copula approach, the dependence measures are very small between Thailand’s exchange and Malaysia’s exchange. This seems to suggest that when global economy is affected by World’s financial crisis, the nonlinear approach should be used to predict Thailand’s exchange rate return in percentage. In addition, it suggests that both the nonlinear and linear approaches should be used to predict the Malaysia’s exchange rate return in percentage. Moreover, the relationship between the exchange rate of Thailand and that of Malaysia is not strong.This is also true for the currencies of both countries.

  8. Percieved Relationship between Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1970-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. J Obansa

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study was specifically embarked upon to establish empirically the relationship exiting among Exchange rate, Interest rate and economic growth in Nigerian economy over the period of 1970-2010. Fundamentally, the period of the study was fractured into two prominent distinctions of economic era - the regulation era and the deregulation era. The study adopted vector auto- regression (VAR technique, with specific emphasis on Impulse Response factor and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition. The result indicated that Exchange rate had a stronger impact on Economic growth than Interest rate. Particularly, Interest rate impact was found to be positive but however declined as the time horizon increased. It had a little impact on Economic growth in the period of regulation than in the deregulation era. The conclusion arising from the study shows that Exchange rate liberalization was good to Nigerian Economy as it promotes Economic growth. Interest rate liberalization on the other hand does not make an appreciable impact on the Economic growth as it undermines investment drive. The paper therefore recommends that Interest rate liberalization and deregulation should be replaced with the policy of Interest rate regulation as obtained in the 1970s and early 1980s. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; text-align:justify; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

  9. Inhomogeneous scaling behaviors in Malaysian foreign currency exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muniandy, S. V.; Lim, S. C.; Murugan, R.

    2001-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate the fractal scaling behaviors of foreign currency exchange rates with respect to Malaysian currency, Ringgit Malaysia. These time series are examined piecewise before and after the currency control imposed in 1st September 1998 using the monofractal model based on fractional Brownian motion. The global Hurst exponents are determined using the R/ S analysis, the detrended fluctuation analysis and the method of second moment using the correlation coefficients. The limitation of these monofractal analyses is discussed. The usual multifractal analysis reveals that there exists a wide range of Hurst exponents in each of the time series. A new method of modelling the multifractal time series based on multifractional Brownian motion with time-varying Hurst exponents is studied.

  10. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models

    OpenAIRE

    Nortey, Ezekiel NN; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, t...

  11. Financial crisis and exchange rates in emerging economies: An empirical analysis using PPP-UIP-Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Rashid

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the effects of 2008 financial crisis on exchange rate determination in PPP-UIP framework for four emerging countries, using monthly date over the period 1981-2012. The results suggest that the recent financial crisis led to change the role of exchange rate determinants in exchange rate determination. The findings also reveal that the effects of financial crisis on the exchange rate are different in all the four emerging economies. The findings of the study are of significant for policy makers in designing effective policies in order to reduce the effects of financial crisis on exchange rates.

  12. What Is Its Purpose?——"Advancing RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism"

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yao Yujie; You Zhixin; Wang Tao

    2010-01-01

    Spokesperson from People's Bank of China said on June 19th, "further advance the reform in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and strengthen the flex-ibility of RMB exchange rate." This is the first time for China central bank give a clear attitude on reform in RMB exchange rate, which attracts great attention for global market. Does strengthening the flexibility of RMB exchange rate mean that RMB will appreciate again? Why the central bank announces the news at this moment? How to choose the time for the reform in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism?

  13. A simple method for air/sea gas exchange measurement in mesocosms and its application in carbon budgeting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Czerny

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Mesocosms as large experimental vessels principally provide the opportunity of performing elemental budget calculations e.g. to derive net biological turnover rates. However, the system is in most cases not closed at the water surface and gases can exchange with the atmosphere. Previous attempts to budget carbon pools in mesocosms relied on educated guesses concerning the exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere. Nevertheless, net primary production rates derived from these budget calculations were, despite large uncertainties in air/sea gas exchange, often more reasonable than cumulative extrapolations of bioassays. While bioassays have limitations representing the full spectrum of trophic levels and abiotic conditions inside the mesocosms, calculating dissolved inorganic carbon uptake inside the mesocosms has the potential to deliver net community production rates representative of the enclosed system. Here, we present a simple method for precise determination of air/sea gas exchange velocities in mesocosms using N2O as a deliberate tracer. Beside the application for carbon budgeting, exchange velocities can be used to calculate exchange rates of any gas of known concentration, e.g. to calculate aquatic production rates of climate relevant trace gases. Using an arctic (Kiel Off Shore Mesocosms for future Ocean Simulation mesocosm experiment as an exemplary dataset, it is shown that application of the presented method largely improves accuracy of carbon budget estimates. Methodology of manipulation, measurement, data processing and conversion to CO2 fluxes are explained. A theoretical discussion of prerequisites for precise gas exchange measurements provides a guideline for the applicability of the method under various experimental conditions.

  14. Parametric simulation and experimental analysis of earth air heat exchanger with solar air heating duct

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjeev Jakhar

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Earth air heat exchanger (EAHE systems are insufficient to meet the thermal comfort requirements in winter conditions. The low heating potential of such systems can be improved by integrating the system with solar air heating duct (SAHD. The aim of this paper is to present a model to estimate the heating potential for EAHE system with and without SAHD. The model is generated using TRNSYS 17 simulation tool and validated against experimental investigation on an experimental set-up in Ajmer, India. The experiment was done during the winter season, where the system was evaluated for different inlet flow velocities, length and depth of buried pipe. From the experimentation, it was observed that the depth of 3.7 m is sufficient for pipe burial and the 34 m length of pipe is sufficient to get optimum EAHE outlet temperature. It is also observed that increase in flow velocity results in drop in EAHE outlet temperature, while room temperature is found to increase for higher velocities (5 m/s. The COP of the system also increased up to 6.304 when assisted with solar air heating duct. The results obtained from the experiment data are in good agreement with simulated results within the variation of up to 7.9%.

  15. Quasi-steady-state model of a counter flow air-to-air heat exchanger with phase change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jørgen; Nielsen, Toke Rammer; Kragh, Jesper;

    2008-01-01

    into account the effects of condensation and frost formation. The model is developed as an Excel spreadsheet, and specific results are compared with laboratory measurements. As an example, the model is used to determine the most energy-efficient control strategy for a specific heat-exchanger under northern......Using mechanical ventilation with highly efficient heat-recovery in northern European or arctic climates is a very efficient way of reducing the energy use for heating in buildings. However, it also presents a series of problems concerning condensation and frost formation in the heat......-exchanger. Developing highly efficient heat-exchangers and strategies to avoid/remove frost formation implies the use of detailed models to predict and evaluate different heat-exchanger designs and strategies. This paper presents a quasi-steady-state model of a counter-flow air-to-air heat-exchanger that takes...

  16. Exchange rate exposure of firms and the demand for foreign exchange derivatives in Brazil: did hedge or speculatiom matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines empirically how the demand of foreign exchange derivatives by Brazilian corporations is related to their exchange rate exposure. With the help of an original database of 74,567 contracts written from 1999 to 2002 between corporations and financial institutions, we were able to identify the corporations that speculated and the ones that hedged with foreign exchange derivatives during this period. Our results show that the exchange rate exposure is positively related to the foreign operational exposures for firms that speculated and negatively related for firms that hedged in 2002. For the other years of the sample period, speculation or hedge did not affect the relationship between the exchange rate exposure and the foreign operational exposure of firms.

  17. Evaluation of a regional air-quality model with bidirectional NH3 exchange coupled to an agroecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bash, J. O.; Cooter, E. J.; Dennis, R. L.; Walker, J. T.; Pleim, J. E.

    2013-03-01

    Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) is the primary atmospheric base and an important precursor for inorganic particulate matter and when deposited NH3 contributes to surface water eutrophication, soil acidification and decline in species biodiversity. Flux measurements indicate that the air-surface exchange of NH3 is bidirectional. However, the effects of bidirectional exchange, soil biogeochemistry and human activity are not parameterized in air quality models. The US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Community Multiscale Air-Quality (CMAQ) model with bidirectional NH3 exchange has been coupled with the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agroecosystem model. The coupled CMAQ-EPIC model relies on EPIC fertilization timing, rate and composition while CMAQ models the soil ammonium (NH4+) pool by conserving the ammonium mass due to fertilization, evasion, deposition, and nitrification processes. This mechanistically coupled modeling system reduced the biases and error in NHx (NH3 + NH4+) wet deposition and in ambient aerosol concentrations in an annual 2002 Continental US (CONUS) domain simulation when compared to a 2002 annual simulation of CMAQ without bidirectional exchange. Fertilizer emissions estimated in CMAQ 5.0 with bidirectional exchange exhibits markedly different seasonal dynamics than the US EPA's National Emissions Inventory (NEI), with lower emissions in the spring and fall and higher emissions in July.

  18. Low GWP Refrigerants Modelling Study for a Room Air Conditioner Having Microchannel Heat Exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Bo [ORNL; Bhandari, Mahabir S [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Microchannel heat exchangers (MHX) have found great successes in residential and commercial air conditioning applications, being compact heat exchangers, to reduce refrigerant charge and material cost. This investigation aims to extend the application of MHXs in split, room air conditioners (RAC), per fundamental heat exchanger and system modelling. For this paper, microchannel condenser and evaporator models were developed, using a segment-to-segment modelling approach. The microchannel heat exchanger models were integrated to a system design model. The system model is able to predict the performance indices, such as cooling capacity, efficiency, sensible heat ratio, etc. Using the calibrated system and heat exchanger models, we evaluated numerous low GWP (global warming potential) refrigerants. The predicted system performance indices, e.g. cooling efficiency, compressor discharge temperature, and required compressor displacement volume etc., are compared. Suitable replacements for R22 and R-410A for the room air conditioner application are recommended.

  19. Oral Pseudoephedrine Decreases the Rate of Trans-mucosal Nitrous Oxide Exchange for the Middle Ear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Miriam S.; Alper, Cuneyt M.; Martin, Brian S; Cullen Doyle, Brendan M.; Doyle, William J.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Determine if oral pretreatment with a vasoconstrictor decreases the blood to middle-ear exchange-rate of the perfusion-limited gas, Nitrous Oxide (N2O). Study Design Randomized, double-blind, crossover study. Methods Ten adult subjects with and 10 without past middle-ear disease completed paired experimental sessions, identical but for oral pretreatment with either pseudoephedrine HCL or lactose placebo. At each session, subjects were fitted with a non-rebreathing mask and breathed room air for 20 minutes (acclimation period), 50% N2O:50% O2 for 20 minutes (experimental period) and 100% O2 for 10 minutes (recovery period). Throughout, heart-rate, blood-pressure and O2 saturation were monitored and bilateral middle-ear pressures were recorded by tympanometry every minute. The primary outcome was the slope of the middle-ear pressure-time function for the experimental period which estimates the volume N2O exchange-rate. Using repeated measures ANOVA, the effects of Group (disease history), Treatment (active vs. placebo) and Period (1 vs. 2) on the recorded vital signs, and of Group, Treatment and Ear (left/right) on the middle-ear pressure-time slope were evaluated for statistical significance. Results Statistically significant effects of Period on O2 saturation (Period 2>Period 1) and of Treatment on heart-rate (Active>Placebo) were documented. Only Treatment was statistically significant for the middle-ear pressure-time slope with a shallower slope characterizing the active treatment session. Conclusion The volume exchange-rate across the middle-ear mucosa of perfusion-limited gases can be modulated pharmacologically. Theoretically, similar drugs can be used to reduce the requisite Eustachian tube opening efficiency for adequate middle-ear pressure regulation. PMID:26152838

  20. Surfactant control of air-sea gas exchange across contrasting biogeochemical regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Ryan; Schneider-Zapp, Klaus; Upstill-Goddard, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Air-sea gas exchange is important to the global partitioning of CO2.Exchange fluxes are products of an air-sea gas concentration difference, ΔC, and a gas transfer velocity, kw. The latter is controlled by the rate of turbulent diffusion at the air-sea interface but it cannot be directly measured and has a high uncertainty that is now considered one of the greatest challenges to quantifying net global air-sea CO2 exchange ...(Takahashi et al., 2009). One important control on kw is exerted by sea surface surfactants that arise both naturally from biological processes and through anthropogenic activity. They influence gas exchange in two fundamental ways: as a monolayer physical barrier and through modifying sea surface hydrodynamics and hence turbulent energy transfer. These effects have been demonstrated in the laboratory with artificial surfactants ...(Bock et al., 1999; Goldman et al., 1988) and through purposeful surfactant releases in coastal waters .(.).........().(Brockmann et al., 1982) and in the open ocean (Salter et al., 2011). Suppression of kwin these field experiments was ~5-55%. While changes in both total surfactant concentration and the composition of the natural surfactant pool might be expected to impact kw, the required in-situ studies are lacking. New data collected from the coastal North Sea in 2012-2013 shows significant spatio-temporal variability in the surfactant activity of organic matter within the sea surface microlayer that ranges from 0.07-0.94 mg/L T-X-100 (AC voltammetry). The surfactant activities show a strong winter/summer seasonal bias and general decrease in concentration with increasing distance from the coastline possibly associated with changing terrestrial vs. phytoplankton sources. Gas exchange experiments of this seawater using a novel laboratory tank and gas tracers (CH4 and SF6) demonstrate a 12-45% reduction in kw compared to surfactant-free water. Seasonally there is higher gas exchange suppression in the summer

  1. Air-water gas exchange and CO2 flux in a mangrove-dominated estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, David T.; Ferrón, Sara; Engel, Victor C.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Barr, Jordan G.

    2014-01-01

    Mangrove forests are highly productive ecosystems, but the fate of mangrove-derived carbon remains uncertain. Part of that uncertainty stems from the fact that gas transfer velocities in mangrove-surrounded waters are not well determined, leading to uncertainty in air-water CO2 fluxes. Two SF6 tracer release experiments were conducted to determine gas transfer velocities (k(600) = 8.3 ± 0.4 and 8.1 ± 0.6 cm h−1), along with simultaneous measurements of pCO2 to determine the air-water CO2 fluxes from Shark River, Florida (232.11 ± 23.69 and 171.13 ± 20.28 mmol C m−2 d−1), an estuary within the largest contiguous mangrove forest in North America. The gas transfer velocity results are consistent with turbulent kinetic energy dissipation measurements, indicating a higher rate of turbulence and gas exchange than predicted by commonly used wind speed/gas exchange parameterizations. The results have important implications for carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems.

  2. Australian Universities' Strategic Goals of Student Exchange and Participation Rates in Outbound Exchange Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Amanda; Barker, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    International student exchange programmes are acknowledged as one aspect of a broader suite of internationalisation strategies aimed at enhancing students' intercultural understanding and competence. The decision to participate in an exchange programme is dependent on both individual and contextual factors such as student exchange policies and…

  3. Forecasting the NOK/USD Exchange Rate with Machine Learning Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Vasilios Plakandaras

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we approximate the empirical findings of Papadamou and Markopoulos (2012) on the NOK/USD exchange rate under a Machine Learning (ML) framework. By applying Support Vector Regression (SVR) on a general monetary exchange rate model and a Dynamic Evolving Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (DENFIS) to extract model structure, we test for the validity of popular monetary exchange rate models. We reach to mixed results since the coefficient sign of interest rate differential is in favor o...

  4. MANAGING EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY : A COMPARATIVE COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS OF SINGAPORE 1994 TO 2003

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Wilson; Henry Ng Shang Ren

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this paper is see how well Singapore’s exchange rate regime has coped with exchange rate volatility before and after the Asian financial crisis by comparing the performance of Singapore’s actual regime in minimising the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bilateral rate against the US$ against some counterfactual regimes and the corresponding performance of eight other East Asian countries. In contrast to previous counterfactual exercises, such as...

  5. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  6. Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Panel Data Analysis of Selected European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet BEŞKAYA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of economic and political factors on the choice of exchange rate regimes. In order to achieve this goal, we apply for Binary Choice Panel Probit Model to examine the relationships between exchange rate regimes and financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democracy. Our data covers the period of 1980-2013 for the selected EU countries, namely, Austria, Germany, Belgium, France, Denmark, England, Sweden and Italy. Estimation results demonstrates that the choice of fixed exchange rate regime become disadvantageous and flexible exchange rate turn out to be the right choice as financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democratization increases.

  7. Investigating existence of chaos in short and long term dynamics of Moroccan exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to investigate presence of chaos in exchange rate time series by combining wavelet transform and Lyapunov exponent estimation. In particular, stationary wavelet transform (SWT) is applied to exchange rate original time series for decomposition purpose. As a result, approximation and details coefficients are extracted. They are used to represent long and short term dynamics of the original exchange rate time series. Then, largest Lyapunov exponent is estimated for each type of dynamics to check for presence of chaos. Our methodology is applied to several Moroccan exchange rate time series. The empirical results show that, in general, the hypothesis of chaotic structure is accepted for currency levels but it is rejected for currency returns on both long and short dynamics. In addition, long and short dynamics exhibit different chaotic patterns in some exchange rate time series. Our approach may be useful to understand chaotic behaviour in original exchange rate time series.

  8. A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Vilela Vieira

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (fixed and random effects for the real exchange rate in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We provide an alternative set of estimates of RER misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated real exchange rate helps (harms long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

  9. Choice of optimal exchange rate system For the Republic of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dražen Koški

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of research whose results are presented in this article was to choose the optimal system of exchange rate for the Republic of Croatia, of course before its accession to EU. The analyzed exchange rate systems here range from free-floating exchange rate to system without domestic currency in circulation. Naturally, the classification of International Monetary Fond is included in it. After that, the comparison of basic economic advantages and disadvantages of the fixed exchange rate in relation to floating exchange rate were carried out. Although the question is about the extreme systems, disregarding the system without domestic currency in circulation, their comparison makes possible completely satisfactory basis for the right conclusions on the choice of optimal exchange rate system for the Republic of Croatia. Considering its economic particularities, the system of managed-floating exchange rate without proclaimed exchange direction in advance is certainly optimal for the Republic of Croatia. Namely, within the framework of this system the limited floating exchange rates decrease the foreign exchange risk allowing to monetary authorities, at least partly, the independent monetary policy

  10. Processes of Ammonia Air-Surface Exchange in a Fertilized Zea Mays Canopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent incorporation of coupled soil biogeochemical and bi-directional NH3 air-surface exchange algorithms into regional air quality models holds promise for further reducing uncertainty in estimates of NH3 emissions from fertilized soils. While this advancement represents a sig...

  11. Rate constants for chemical reactions in high-temperature nonequilibrium air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, R. L.

    1986-01-01

    In the nonequilibrium atmospheric chemistry regime that will be encountered by the proposed Aeroassisted Orbital Transfer Vehicle in the upper atmosphere, where air density is too low for thermal and chemical equilibrium to be maintained, the detailed high temperature air chemistry plays a critical role in defining radiative and convective heating loads. Although vibrational and electronic temperatures remain low (less than 15,000 K), rotational and translational temperatures may reach 50,000 K. Attention is presently given to the effects of multiple temperatures on the magnitudes of various chemical reaction rate constants, for the cases of both bimolecular exchange reactions and collisional excitation and dissociation reactions.

  12. Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Panel Data Analysis of Selected European Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Beşkaya, Ahmet; Havanur ERGÜN

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of economic and political factors on the choice of exchange rate regimes. In order to achieve this goal, we apply for Binary Choice Panel Probit Model to examine the relationships between exchange rate regimes and financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democracy. Our data covers the period of 1980-2013 for the selected EU countries, namely, Austria, Germany, Belgium, France, Denmark, England, Sweden and Italy. Estimation res...

  13. ON THE CURRENT RMB EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AFFECTING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄燕君

    2001-01-01

    The current exchange rate regime of China is just like the US dollar-pegged exchange rate regime, which weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy but increases the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Since the scope of implementing the fiscal policy is quite narrow, it is necessary to promote the effectiveness of monetary policy by enlarging the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate regime so as to stimulate the rapid development of the Chinese economy effectively.

  14. The Causal Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation in Turkey:1984-2003

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    In this study, we investigate empirically the causal relationship between nominal exchange rates and inflation by using high-frequency data of nominal exchange rates and inflation of Turkey. To determine the appropriate Granger causality relations, unit root and cointegtration models are used. With time-series techniques, this study provides evidence that a long-run relationship between nominal exchange rates and inflation exist. However, our results indicate that a causal relationship occurs...

  15. Exchange Rates: Predictable but not Explainable? Data Mining with Leading Indicators and Technical Trading Rules

    OpenAIRE

    Brandl, Bernd

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a data mining approach to forecasting exchange rates. It is assumed that exchange rates are determined by both fundamental and technical factors. The balance of fundamental and technical factors varies for each exchange rate and frequency. It is difficult for forecasters to establish the relative relevance of different kinds of factors given this mixture; therefore the utilization of data mining algorithms is advantageous. The approach applied uses a genetic...

  16. Choice of optimal exchange rate system For the Republic of Croatia

    OpenAIRE

    Dražen Koški

    2008-01-01

    The aim of research whose results are presented in this article was to choose the optimal system of exchange rate for the Republic of Croatia, of course before its accession to EU. The analyzed exchange rate systems here range from free-floating exchange rate to system without domestic currency in circulation. Naturally, the classification of International Monetary Fond is included in it. After that, the comparison of basic economic advantages and disadvantages of the fixed exchan...

  17. An exchange rate determination model for central banks'interventions in financial markets

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林浚清; 黄祖辉; 战明华

    2002-01-01

    We establish an exchange rate determination model for central banks' interventiorm in financial markets.The model shows that central banks can adjuct exchange rate by several policy instruments and that different instruments may have different effects on exchange rate determination.It specifies potetial policy instruments for central banks as well as their policy effects.Based on these effects,feasible matches of policy instruments in contingent intervention are put forth.

  18. An exchange rate determination model for central banks' interventions in financial markets

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林浚清; 黄祖辉; 战明华

    2002-01-01

    We establish an exchange rate determination model for central banks' in terventions in financial markets. The model shows that central banks can adjust exchange rate by several policy instruments and that different instruments may h ave different effects on exchange rate determination. It specifies potential pol icy instruments for central banks as well as their policy effects. Based on thes e effects, feasible matches of policy instruments in contingent intervention are put forth.

  19. ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE LINKED SUBSIDIES FOR NON-PRICE EXPORT PROMOTION: THE CASE OF COTTON

    OpenAIRE

    Paudel, Laxmi; Adhikari, Murali; Houston, Jack E.; Kinnucan, Henry W.

    2002-01-01

    An equilibrium displacement framework was developed to evaluate the effect of exchange rate linked subsidies for non-price export promotion for US cotton. Study results show that an increase in promotion expenditure increased the dollar value and producer welfare of cotton growers. The gross gain to the domestic cotton producers from the exchange-rate linked subsidy scheme was positive. These evidences support exchange rate linked subsidies for US cotton export promotion.

  20. Forecasting Exchange Rate Density Using Parametric Models: the Case of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Miranda Tabak

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs a recently developed parametric technique to obtain density forecasts for the Brazilian exchange rate, using the exchange rate options market. Empirical results suggest that the option market contains useful information about future exchange rate density. These results suggests that density forecasts using options markets may add value for portfolio and risk management, and may be useful for financial regulators to assess financial stability.

  1. Peso Problems, Bubbles, and Risk in the Empirical Assessment of Exchange-Rate Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Maurice Obstfeld

    1987-01-01

    One of the most puzzling aspects of the post-1973 floating exchange rate system has been the apparently inefficient predictive performance of forward exchange rates. This paper explores some aspects of each of three leading explanations of forward-rate behavior. The paper first develops a simple rational-expectations model of the "peso problem" that generates some key empirical regularities of the foreign exchange market: seemingly predictable and conditionally heteroskedastic forward forecas...

  2. Micrometeorological Measurement of Fetch- and Atmospheric Stability-Dependent Air- Water Exchange of Legacy Semivolatile Organic Contaminants in Lake Superior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlinger, J. A.; Tobias, D. E.; Rowe, M. D.

    2008-12-01

    Coastal waters including the Laurentian Great Lakes are particularly susceptible to local, regional, and long- range transport and deposition of semivolatile organic contaminants (SOCs) as gases and/or associated with particles. Recently-marketed SOCs can be expected to undergo net deposition in surface waters, whereas legacy SOCs such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are likely to be at equilibrium with respect to air-water exchange, or, if atmospheric concentrations decrease through, e.g., policy implementation, to undergo net gas emission. SOC air-water exchange flux is usually estimated using the two-film model. This model describes molecular diffusion through the air and water films adjacent to the air-water interface. Air-water exchange flux is estimated as the product of SOC fugacity, typically based on on-shore gaseous concentration measurements, and a transfer coefficient, the latter which is estimated from SOC properties and environmental conditions. The transfer coefficient formulation commonly applied neglects resistance to exchange in the internal boundary layer under atmospherically stable conditions, and the use of on-shore gaseous concentration neglects fetch-dependent equilibration, both of which will tend to cause overestimation of flux magnitude. Thus, for legacy chemicals or in any highly contaminated surface water, the rate at which the water is cleansed through gas emission tends to be over-predicted using this approach. Micrometeorological measurement of air-water exchange rates of legacy SOCs was carried out on ships during four transect experiments during off-shore flow in Lake Superior using novel multicapillary collection devices and thermal extraction technology to measure parts-per-quadrillion SOC levels. Employing sensible heat in the modified Bowen ratio, fluxes at three over-water stations along the transects were measured, along with up-wind, onshore gaseous concentration and aqueous concentration. The atmosphere was unstable for

  3. 76 FR 6128 - Energy Exchange International, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-03

    ...-000] Energy Exchange International, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing... the above-referenced proceeding Energy Exchange International, LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an accompanying rate tariff, noting that such application includes a request for...

  4. Air-Cooled Heat Exchanger for High-Temperature Power Electronics: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waye, S. K.; Lustbader, J.; Musselman, M.; King, C.

    2015-05-06

    This work demonstrates a direct air-cooled heat exchanger strategy for high-temperature power electronic devices with an application specific to automotive traction drive inverters. We present experimental heat dissipation and system pressure curves versus flow rate for baseline and optimized sub-module assemblies containing two ceramic resistance heaters that provide device heat fluxes. The maximum allowable junction temperature was set to 175 deg.C. Results were extrapolated to the inverter scale and combined with balance-of-inverter components to estimate inverter power density and specific power. The results exceeded the goal of 12 kW/L and 12 kW/kg for power density and specific power, respectively.

  5. Extreme variations of air dose rates in east Fukushima.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akimoto, Kazuhiro

    2015-11-01

    This report analyses the data of air (ambient) dose rates measured at 164 points in eastern Fukushima during a period of half a year after 10 June 2011. It is found that at some locations the values decreased or increased extraordinarily although on average the overall dose rates decreased significantly faster than the theoretically predicted rate. Among them the nine most extreme points are selected and analysed. It is found that behind these extraordinary behaviours of air dose rates there exists the combination of wind/rain and artificial structures such as sloped pavements.

  6. The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the intraday effects of intra-marginal intervention in a horizontal band on the exchange rate spread. Official intraday data on Danish intervention transactions in the ERM II, the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Union, facilitates our analysis. We show that intervention...... purchases and sales both exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions. Intervention purchases of the small currency, on average, narrow the spread while intervention sales of the small currency, on average, widen the spread. This is a novel finding that differs from...... those of existing studies that find intervention always widens the exchange rate spread and increases market uncertainty...

  7. How Much to Commit to an Exchange Rate Rule? Balancing Credibility and Flexibility How Much to Commit to an Exchange Rate Rule? Balancing Credibility and Flexibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nissan Liviatan

    1992-03-01

    Full Text Available How Much to Commit to an Exchange Rate Rule? Balancing Credibility and Flexibility There are different ways in which policy-makers back their commitment to a fixed exchange rate. A regime where countries can devalue unilaterally represents a weaker commitment than one where a devaluation needs to be agreed upon with other parties (e.g. the European monetary system. Full dollarization, understood here as full replacement of the domestic currency by the U.S. dollar, is an extreme commitment to a fixed exchange rate. Indeed, it is a especial case of a fixed exchange rate.The central message of this paper is that the cost of reneging is a key reason holding policymakers back from making strong commitments on their exchange rate policy. The stronger the commitment to an exchange rate rule, the more costly it is to deviate from it. The paper develops a Barro-Gordon type model in which the policymaker has to decide the degree of commitment under uncertainty.It is shown that, even for policy makers that have a strong preference for maintaining the fixed exchange rate, there are circunstances under which they will choose to devalue. This will happen when the economy is hit by an adverse shock and the costs of adhering to the fixed exchange rate are larger than those associated with devaluing.The model provides useful insights to understand why many high inflation economies have not adopted full dollarizarion as a way to stabilize prices. Our emphasis on the cost of reneging stands in contrast with most existing works, which single out the desire to rely on seigniorage as the main motive for stopping short of full dollarization. Strong commitments will only be made once there is a good chance that the policy maker will not renege, and by then they might not be necessary. We illustrate the main points of the paper with examples from Latin American countries.

  8. Tunneled central venous catheter exchange: techniques to improve prevention of air embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Umberto G; Torcia, Pierluca; Rigamonti, Paolo; Colombo, Francesca; Giordano, Antonino; Gallieni, Maurizio; Cariati, Maurizio

    2016-01-01

    Malfunctioning tunneled hemodialysis central venous catheters (CVCs), because of thrombotic or infectious complications, are frequently exchanged. During the CVC exchanging procedure, there are several possible technical complications, as in first insertion, including air embolism. Prevention remains the key to the management of air embolism. Herein, we emphasize the technical tricks capable of reducing the risk of air embolism in long-term CVC exchange. In particular, adoption of a 5 to 10 degrees Trendelenburg position, direct puncture of the previous CVC venous lumen for guide-wire insertion, as opposed to guide-wire introduction after cutting the CVC, a light manual compression of the internal jugular vein venotomy site after catheter removal. The Valsalva maneuvre in collaborating patients, valved introducers, and correction of hypovolemia are also useful precautions. Principles of air embolism diagnosis and treatment are also outlined in the article.

  9. Evaluation of a regional air-quality model with bidirectional NH3 exchange coupled to an agroecosystem model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Bash

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric ammonia (NH3 is the primary atmospheric base and an important precursor for inorganic particulate matter and when deposited NH3 contributes to surface water eutrophication, soil acidification and decline in species biodiversity. Flux measurements indicate that the air–surface exchange of NH3 is bidirectional. However, the effects of bidirectional exchange, soil biogeochemistry and human activity are not parameterized in air quality models. The US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA Community Multiscale Air-Quality (CMAQ model with bidirectional NH3 exchange has been coupled with the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC agroecosystem model. The coupled CMAQ-EPIC model relies on EPIC fertilization timing, rate and composition while CMAQ models the soil ammonium (NH4+ pool by conserving the ammonium mass due to fertilization, evasion, deposition, and nitrification processes. This mechanistically coupled modeling system reduced the biases and error in NHx (NH3 + NH4+ wet deposition and in ambient aerosol concentrations in an annual 2002 Continental US (CONUS domain simulation when compared to a 2002 annual simulation of CMAQ without bidirectional exchange. Fertilizer emissions estimated in CMAQ 5.0 with bidirectional exchange exhibits markedly different seasonal dynamics than the US EPA's National Emissions Inventory (NEI, with lower emissions in the spring and fall and higher emissions in July.

  10. Some stylised facts about the exchange rate behaviour of Central European currencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Vejmělek

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates developments of exchange rate time series of Central European currencies and tries to find evidence of some stylised facts. Statistical methods and an econometric approach to the univariate time series modelling of high-frequency data, i.e., daily, are used. The main conclusions are as follows: (1 All the CE nominal exchange time series are not stationary: nevertheless, stationarity of all the return time series was confirmed. (2 Volatility clustering was proven and the GARCH modelling approach was successfully applied, including asymmetric modelling of volatility. (3 The more flexible an exchange rate regime is, the more volatile the respective currency. This is true for both nominal and real exchange rates. While nominal volatility is lower than real volatility in a system of fixed or less flexible exchange rates, the opposite is true for flexible systems: exchange rate volatility is higher in nominal terms than in real terms.

  11. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

  12. A study on the effect of interest rate on performance of stock exchange: A case study of Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akram Javanbakht

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Interest rate plays an important role on financial market in any different sectors from real state to auto industry. An increase on interest rates will increase cost of borrowing money from banks, which reduces profitability. The proposed study of this paper investigates the relationship between bank interest rates on performance of stock exchange over the period 2001-2010. The proposed study categorizes interest rates into five different categories including short-term interest rate, special short-term rate, one-year, two-year, three-year, four-year and five-year terms. The results of performing regression analysis have confirmed that there are some positive and meaningful relationship between interest rate in all groups and performance of stock exchange.

  13. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  14. Exchange rate dynamics, structural breaks, and central bank interventions in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Mario Uribe

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the effectiveness of the Colombian Central Bank´s interventions in the foreign exchange market during the period 2000 to 2014. We examine the stochastic process that describes the exchange rate, with a focus on the detection of structural breaks or unit roots in the data to determine whether the Central Bank´s interventions were effective. We find that the exchange rate can be described either by a random walk or by a trend-stationary model with multiple breaks. In neither cases do we find any evidence that the exchange rate was affected by the Central Bank interventions.

  15. Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    This paper investigates the intraday effects of unannounced foreign exchange intervention on bid-ask exchange rate spreads using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our starting point is a simple theoretical model of the bid-ask spread which we use to formulate...... exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions: intervention purchases of the smaller currency, on average, reduce the spread while intervention sales, on average, increase the spread. We also show that intervention only affects the exchange rate spread when...

  16. The Study of Volatility Spillover Effects of The Exchange Rate on Agricultural Industry Index Listed on The Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Dourandish

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Financial markets are one of the most crucial markets in every country. Stock exchange market and exchange market are the most sensitive sectors of financial market. These markets are affected by fluctuations and business cycles in the economy and they reflect economic changes to the economy. On the other hand, disturbance in one or both markets cause concerns among policy makers. Dynamic interactions between these two markets encourage policy makers and researchers to carry out some analysis considering more details. In this study, effects of volatility of exchange market and agricultural processing industries stock market on themselves and each other have been investigated by GARCH model. Weekly data between April 2006 and January of 20014 was used. The results show that the past volatility of exchange market affects the current volatility of this market. The past shock in exchange market has effects on the current volatility of this market , the current volatility of food and beverage industries as well as the sugar industry market. Also, the past shock in sugar industries market affects its current volatility and the current volatility of exchange market and food and beverages industries market. Because changes in exchange rate affect revenues and costs of the mentioned industries, preventing the exchange rate market from fluctuations and putting it in stable by making balance between demand and supply, also controlling the central bank and other regulatory agencies will prevent these two markets from fluctuations. It is, therefore, recommended that policy makers impose monetary and financial policies that reduce volatility in capital and exchange markets.

  17. Design and Implementation of Automatic Air Flow Rate Control System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbar, A.; Saputra, C.; Munir, M. M.; Khairurrijal

    2016-08-01

    Venturimeter is an apparatus that can be used to measure the air flow rate. In this experiment we designed a venturimeter which equipped with a valve that is used to control the air flow rate. The difference of pressure between the cross sections was measured with the differential pressure sensor GA 100-015WD which can calculate the difference of pressures from 0 to 3737.33 Pa. A 42M048C Z36 stepper motor was used to control the valve. The precision of this motor rotation is about 0.15 °. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was developed to monitor and set the value of flow rate then an 8-bit microcontroller was used to process the control system In this experiment- the venturimeter has been examined to get the optimal parameter of controller. The results show that the controller can set the stable output air flow rate.

  18. Air-side performance of a micro-channel heat exchanger in wet surface conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srisomba Raviwat

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of operating conditions on the air-side heat transfer, and pressure drop of a micro-channel heat exchanger under wet surface conditions were studied experimentally. The test section was an aluminum micro-channel heat exchanger, consisting of a multi-louvered fin and multi-port mini-channels. Experiments were conducted to study the effects of inlet relative humidity, air frontal velocity, air inlet temperature, and refrigerant temperature on air-side performance. The experimental data were analyzed using the mean enthalpy difference method. The test run was performed at relative air humidities ranging between 45% and 80%; air inlet temperature ranges of 27, 30, and 33°C; refrigerant-saturated temperatures ranging from 18 to 22°C; and Reynolds numbers between 128 and 166. The results show that the inlet relative humidity, air inlet temperature, and the refrigerant temperature had significant effects on heat transfer performance and air-side pressure drop. The heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop for the micro-channel heat exchanger under wet surface conditions are proposed in terms of the Colburn j factor and Fanning f factor.

  19. Optimal and Sustainable Exchange Rate Regimes; A Simple Game-Theoretic Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Masahiro Kawai

    1992-01-01

    This paper examines the question of how to design an optimal and sustainable exchange rate regime in a world economy of two interdependent countries. It develops a Barro-Gordon type two-country model and compares noncooperative equilibria under different assumptions of monetary policy credibility and different exchange rate regimes. Using a two-stage game approach to the strategic choice of policy instruments, it identifies optimal (in a Pare to sense) and sustainable (self-enforcing) exchang...

  20. RATE LAW AND ITS MOMENT EXPRESSIONS FOR PELLICULAR ION EXCHANGE MATERIALS OF VARIOURS SHAPES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YangGengliang; ZhangXiaomin; 等

    1994-01-01

    In this paper,the kinetic moment expressions and rate laws are derived for pellicular ion exchange materials with various geometrical forms under the conditions that ion exchange rate is controlled by both the partical diffusion and the film diffusion in finite solution volume.In addition,for strong acidic cation ion exchange fibre,by using the equations obtained we calculated the partical diffusion coefficients and the transfer coefficients in the film under different experimental conditions.

  1. Predicting Offender-Generated Exchange Rates: Implications for a Theory of Sentence Severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, David C.; Wood, Peter B.; Mooney, Jennifer L.; Minor, Kevin I.

    2005-01-01

    We solicited offender-generated exchange rates between prison and several noncustodial sanctions from a sample of 588 offenders currently serving community-based punishments. We then regressed these exchange rates on demographic, attitudinal, and correctional experience indicators. Males, Blacks, older offenders, offenders with prison experience,…

  2. Exchange Rate and Industrial Commodity Volatility Transmissions, Asymmetries and Hedging Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Hammoudeh (Shawkat); Y. Yuan (Yuan); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the inclusion of the dollar/euro exchange rate together with four important and highly traded commodities - aluminum, copper, gold and oil- in symmetric and asymmetric multivariate GARCH and DCC models. The inclusion of exchange rate increases the significant direct a

  3. Exchange Rate Exposures and Strategies of Industrial Companies: An Empirical Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy.......This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy....

  4. Who cares about volatility? A tale of two exchange-rate systems.

    OpenAIRE

    Sylvain Leduc

    2001-01-01

    On an international level, countries often engage in vigorous debate about which type of exchange-rate system to follow – fixed or flexible? A question central to that debate is: Does one particular exchange-rate system promote a more stable economic environment?

  5. A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Schotman (Peter); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a posterior odds analysis of the hypothesis of a unit root in real exchange rates. From a Bayesian viewpoint the random walk hypothesis for real exchange rates is a posteriori as probable as a stationary AR(1) process for four out of eight time series investigated. The French

  6. Trade openness, real exchange rates and job reallocation : Evidence from Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Colantone (Italo)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate movements on job reallocation at the industry level. The analysis focuses on the manufacturing sector of Belgium, using data for 82 NACE 3-digit industries, over the time span 1996-2002. I find that real exchange rate changes do ha

  7. Exchange-rate determination : is there a role for macroeconomic fundamentals?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews recent trends in exchange rate modelling with a view toward assessing new claims that macroeconomic variables are useful for explaining exchange rates. The application to co-integration techniques and the use of larger datasets have led to more empirical evidence in favour of both

  8. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Economic Growth in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmira Cakrani

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Real exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially in today's conditions of integration processes, the removal of trade barriers and increasing direct competition between countries. Real exchange rate affects economy, through its impact on key economic variables, such as employment, inflation and especially economic growth. Changes in the real exchange rate affect the competitiveness of domestic products, resulting in increased exports or imports, affecting trade balance e growth. Also changes in the real exchange rate affect investment and capital accumulation, which are directly linked with economic growth. The aim of this paper is to study the possible impact of the real exchange rate on economic growth in Albania, to answer the question whether the real exchange rate can be used as an instrument of policy. Johansen cointegration method and Vector Error Correction Model is used in this paper to identify the longterm and short-term impact of real exchange rate on economic growth in Albania. Results of the study indicate that the real exchange rate has no significant impact on the Albanian economy, suggesting that policies to promote economic growth, both in the short and long term should not rely on this variable.

  9. Determinants of the ZAR/USD exchange rate and policy implications: A simultaneous-equation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Hsing

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the determinants of the South African rand/US dollar (ZAR/USD exchange rate based on demand and supply analysis. Applying the EGARCH method, the paper finds that the ZAR/USD exchange rate is positively associated with the South African government bond yield, US real GDP, the US stock price and the South African inflation rate and negatively influenced by the 10-year US government bond yield, South African real GDP, the South African stock price, and the US inflation rate. The adoption of a free floating exchange rate regime has reduced the value of the rand vs. the US dollar.

  10. RMB Exchange Rate Regime:Suggestions on Further Reform and Exit Strategy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LiJing

    2003-01-01

    Since 2000,the focus of the study of the RMB exchange rate has transferred from debate on whether it should appreciate or depreciate to the overall phanning and the envisaged improvement of the RMB exchange rate regime.Many scholoars have suggested that if is the best time for reforming the current RMB exchange rate regime for greater exchange rate flexibility.Meanwhile,the IMF,while speaking highly of China's economic performance and its flexible economic policies,also has sugested that China should take advantage of its WTO accession to reform the RMB exchange rate system.There is little doubt,however,that a great deal of ground has to be covered before consensus can be reached on the strategy and concrete steps for carrying out the reform.

  11. Empirical analysis on the real effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty: The case of Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Cristina Ruiz

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper re-examines the effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty on real economic activity. The existent literatura has treated both issues as separate subject matters. It has emphasized either the issue of inflation uncertainty or exchange rate uncertainty on economic growth or on different measures of economic activity. This paper attempts dealing with both issues by analyzing the magnitudes and direction of the effect of both: inflation and exchange rate uncertainty on real economic activity. By introducing dummy variables, we control for monetary policy change (the change to inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate. By using a generalized autoregressive conditional variance (GARCH model of inflation and exchange rates, the conditional variances of the model’s forecast errors were extracted as measures of uncertainty. The results suggest that higher levels of inflation Granger cause more uncertainty and viceversa for the Colombian economy. Also, only inflation uncertainty matters for output by exerting a negative influence

  12. Conquering the Summit With Firm Strides——Review on the restarted RMB exchange rate reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Ming

    2010-01-01

    @@ On the evening of June 19th 2010, the central bank of China released that "on further advancing the reform in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and strengthen-ing the flexibility of RMB rate". There were three key points. First, "now that global economy is steadily recovering, and the recovering trend in China is strengthened, it is necessary to further advance reform in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and strengthen the flexibility of RMB rate."

  13. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  14. Research of heat exchange rate of the pulsating heat pipe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kravets V. Yu.

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Given article presents experimental research of heat transfer characteristics of the pulsating heat pipe (PHP which consists of seven coils with 1 mm inner diameter. Water was used as the heat carrier. PHP construction, measuring circuit and research technique are presented. It is shown that under PHP functioning there are two characteristic modes of operation, which can be distinguished by values of thermal resistance. PHP heat exchange features are disclosed.

  15. East Asia’s Foreign Exchange Rate Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-16

    At the other extreme, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea have usually allowed their currencies to float freely in foreign exchange ( forex ...China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam allow their currency to adjust in value in forex markets so long as the...There were also reports that Korea sold more dollars for won in early April 2008.7 At the time, some forex analysts claimed that the new South Korean

  16. Performance Characteristics of Cross-Fin-Tube-Type Heat Exchanger for Air Conditioner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Naoe; Kakiyama, Shiro; Sanuki, Noriyoshi

    The effects of enhanced heat transfer tube with ability to control the heat transfer disturbance by mechanical tube expanding were experimentally investigated on the performance characteristics of air-cooled cross-fin-tube-type heat exchanger for air conditioner. Three kinds of the enhanced heat transfer tube were developed and used in the experiment. The enhanced heat transfer tube was a kind of spirally grooved tube and composed with the fins smaller than those of the conventional spirally grooved tube excepting four fins located in orthogonal position on the tube circumference. The optimum groove number to enhance the performance of heat exchanger was also shown.

  17. Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation to the Romanian Foreign Currency Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavinia Diana Vasile

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we intend to indentify the impact of the currency rate of exchange variation of the two main currencies which represent Romania’s foreign currency reserve and the stress test it submits the latter. Up to the present moment there not established a cause-effect relationship or correlation between the foreign currency exchage rate was variation and the foreign currency reserve. In this respect we used an econometrics model based on cointegration analysis of the three series of data corresponding to the period of time 31.01.1995-31.06.2006 (the EURO exchange rate, the USD exchange rate and the foreign currency reserve.

  18. Novel approach for evaluation of air change rate in naturally ventilated occupied spaces based on metabolic CO2 time variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Markov, Detelin G.

    2014-01-01

    , air-tight space, constant indoor pressure and temperature. The proposed approach for ACR evaluation can be applied to time intervals with any length, even with varying parameters of both indoor and outdoor air, in which metabolic CO2 generation rate is known and constant. This approach makes possible......IAQ in many residential buildings relies on non-organized natural ventilation. Accurate evaluation of air change rate (ACR) in this situation is difficult due to the nature of the phenomenon - intermittent infiltration-exfiltration periods of mass exchange between the room air and the outdoor air...... at low rate. This paper describes a new approach for ACR evaluation in naturally ventilated occupied spaces. Actual metabolic CO2 time variation record in an interval of time is compared with the computed variation of metabolic CO2 for the same time interval under reference conditions: sleeping occupants...

  19. The Empirical Research of the Impact of GDP and Exchange Rate on Foreign Exchange Reserve Scale in China-Based on Quantile Regression Model

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Based on the relevant data from 1985 to 2010, this thesis uses a quantile regression model to make an empirical research about the effect of GDP and exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve. The findings show that: Both GDP and exchange rate have a remarkable influence on the size of foreign exchange reserve and the effect of exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve is higher than GDP at mean place and middle and lower quantile, smaller than GDP at higher quantile. At all the examined quant...

  20. Measuring Outdoor Air Intake Rates into Existing Building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William; Sullivan, Douglas; Cohen, Sebastian; Han, Hwataik

    2009-04-16

    Practical and accurate technologies are needed for continuously measuring and controlling outdoor air (OA) intake rates in commercial building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. This project evaluated two new measurement approaches. Laboratory experiments determined that OA flow rates were measurable with errors generally less than 10 percent using electronic air velocity probes installed between OA intake louver blades or at the outlet face of louvers. High accuracy was maintained with OA flow rates as low as 15 percent of the maximum for the louvers. Thus, with this measurement approach HVAC systems do not need separate OA intakes for minimum OA supply. System calibration parameters are required for each unique combination of louver type and velocity sensor location but calibrations are not necessary for each system installation. The research also determined that the accuracy of measuring OA flow rates with velocity probes located in the duct downstream of the intake louver was not improved by installing honeycomb airflow straighteners upstream of the probes. Errors varied with type of upstream louver, were as high as 100 percent, and were often greater than 25 percent. In conclusion, use of electronic air velocity probes between the blades of OA intake louvers or at the outlet face of louvers is a highly promising means of accurately measuring rates of OA flow into HVAC systems. The use of electronic velocity probes downstream of airflow straighteners is less promising, at least with the relatively small OA HVAC inlet systems employed in this research.

  1. A comparative study of United States and China exchange rate behavior: A co integration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shafi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates always affect the prices of the imports and export of products and services in which countries are trading with other parts of the world. Therefore, exchange rate calculation is one of the essential issues for making appropriate policies. This research investigates the determinants of trade, i.e. import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation, which bring changes in exchange rate and their influence eventually on balance of payments. Data of defined variables was collected on yearly basis for China and USA for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there existed a long run relationship in both countries. USA and China had significant and correct signs on the short run dynamic and some of the factors did not. Exchange rate did not granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment did not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinants of balance of trade could affect the exchange rates, also, these rates had considerable effect (positive or negative on balance of payments. In this twofold study, we found relationship of exchange rate with selected determinants of trade, and also examined their bilateral effect, and then made contrast of both countries.

  2. Measuring a hidden coordinate: Rate-exchange kinetics from 3D correlation functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Mark A; Darvin, Jason R

    2016-08-07

    Nonexponential kinetics imply the existence of at least one slow variable other than the observable, that is, the system has a "hidden" coordinate. We develop a simple, but general, model that allows multidimensional correlation functions to be calculated for these systems. Homogeneous and heterogeneous mechanisms are both included, and slow exchange of the rates is allowed. This model shows that 2D and 3D correlation functions of the observable measure the distribution and kinetics of the hidden coordinate controlling the rate exchange. Both the mean exchange time and the shape of the exchange relaxation are measurable. However, complications arise because higher correlation functions are sums of multiple "pathways," each of which measures different dynamics. Only one 3D pathway involves exchange dynamics. Care must be used to extract exchange dynamics without contamination from other processes.

  3. Measuring a hidden coordinate: Rate-exchange kinetics from 3D correlation functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Mark A.; Darvin, Jason R.

    2016-08-01

    Nonexponential kinetics imply the existence of at least one slow variable other than the observable, that is, the system has a "hidden" coordinate. We develop a simple, but general, model that allows multidimensional correlation functions to be calculated for these systems. Homogeneous and heterogeneous mechanisms are both included, and slow exchange of the rates is allowed. This model shows that 2D and 3D correlation functions of the observable measure the distribution and kinetics of the hidden coordinate controlling the rate exchange. Both the mean exchange time and the shape of the exchange relaxation are measurable. However, complications arise because higher correlation functions are sums of multiple "pathways," each of which measures different dynamics. Only one 3D pathway involves exchange dynamics. Care must be used to extract exchange dynamics without contamination from other processes.

  4. Wind driven vertical transport in a vegetated, wetland water column with air-water gas exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poindexter, C.; Variano, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    gas transfer coefficient, k, for both a vegetated condition and a control condition (no cylinders). The presence of cylinders in the tank substantially increased the rate of the gas transfer. For the highest wind speed, the gas transfer coefficient was several times higher when cylinders were present compared to when they were not. The gas transfer coefficient for the vegetated condition also proved sensitive to wind speed, increasing markedly with increasing mean wind speeds. Profiles of dissolved oxygen revealed well-mixed conditions in the bulk water column following prolonged air-flow above the water surface, suggesting application of the thin-film model is appropriate. The enhanced gas exchange observed might be explained by increased turbulent kinetic energy within the water column and the anisotropy of the cylinder array, which constrains horizontal motions more than vertical motions. Improved understanding of gas exchange in vegetated water columns may be of particularly use to investigations of carbon fluxes and soil accretion in wetlands. Reference: Nepf, H. (1999), Drag, turbulence, and diffusion in flow through emergent vegetation, Water Resour. Res., 35(2), 479-489.

  5. Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Fathian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

  6. Role of sea ice in air-sea exchange and its relation to sea fog

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    解思梅; 包澄澜; 姜德中; 邹斌

    2001-01-01

    Synchronous or quasi-synchronous stereoscopic sea-ice-air comprehensive observation was conducted during the First China Arctic Expedition in summer of 1999. Based on these data, the role of sea ice in sea-air exchange was studied. The study shows that the kinds, distribution and thickness of sea ice and their variation significantly influence the air-sea heat exchange. In floating ice area, the heat momentum transferred from ocean to atmosphere is in form of latent heat; latent heat flux is closely related to floating ice concentration; if floating ice is less, the heat flux would be larger. Latent heat flux is about 21 23.6 W*m-2, which is greater than sensible heat flux. On ice field or giant floating ice, heat momentum transferred from atmosphere to sea ice or snow surface is in form of sensible heat. In the floating ice area or polynya, sea-air exchange is the most active, and also the most sensible for climate. Also this area is the most important condition for the creation of Arctic vapor fog. The heat exchange of a large-scale vapor fog process of about 500000 km2 on Aug. 21 22,1999 was calculated; the heat momentum transferred from ocean to air was about 14.8×109 kW. There are various kinds of sea fog, radiation fog, vapor fog and advection fog, forming in the Arctic Ocean in summer. One important cause is the existence of sea ice and its resultant complexity of both underlying surface and sea-air exchange.

  7. The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: The Relevance of International Experience to China's Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JohnWilliamson

    2005-01-01

    The Chinese exchange rate has been the focus of discussion for many months, with both internal and external considerations seemingly pointing to the desirability of a currency revaluation. This paper draws from the lessons of international experience with exchangerate regimes in the period since Worm War Two. It lays out the conditions necessary to validate a fixed exchange rate and some intermediate regimes that might work when a fixed rate is inappropriate. It then discusses what the analysis implies for contemporary China.

  8. The choice of exchange rate regimes: An empirical analysis for transition economies

    OpenAIRE

    von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong

    2002-01-01

    We analyze the choice of exchange rate regimes of the 25 transition economies in Europe and the CIS after 1990. The empirical results show that the traditional Optimum Currency Area considerations provide relevant guidance for the exchange rate regime choices in these countries. Moreover, regime choices are influenced by inflation rates, cumulative inflation differentials, and the availability of international reserves. That is, macroeconomic stabilization and the ability to commit to a credi...

  9. Public Debt Tipping Point Studies Ingnore How Exchange Rate Changes May Create A Financial Meltdowns

    OpenAIRE

    Pope, Robin; Selten, Reinhard

    2012-01-01

    In studies concluding that public debt may hamper GDP, the debt tipping effects are estimated as if there were a single world currency. This means that such studies ignore the likely biggest cause of changes in growth rates, namely damage from exchange rate liquidity shocks because we do not live in the fairyland of a single world currency. The conclusions of these studies are accordingly invalid. They deflect attention from a prime danger, namely an exchange-rate-precipitated global meltdown...

  10. Using fuzzy neural networks for RMB/USD real exchange rate forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUI Xiao-feng; LI Zhe; WEI Qing-quan

    2005-01-01

    In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential,which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm.In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.

  11. Comparing Linear and Non-linear Benchmarks of Exchange Rate Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    SJ Retief, M Pretorius and I Botha

    2015-01-01

    Throughout the past 3 decades, the random walk model served as exchange rate forecasting benchmark to verify that a model is able to outperform a random process. However, its application as forecasting benchmark is contradictory. Rather than serving as a benchmark that explains exchange rate behaviour, it serves as a benchmark of what we do not understand in exchange rate forecasting – the random component. In order to accommodate for the observed mean reverting and non-linear patterns in e...

  12. Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rafael de Oliveira Felício

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the usefulness of factor models in explaining the dynamics of the exchange rate Real / Dollar from January 1999 to August 2011. The paper verifies that the inclusion of factors embedded on the common movements of exchange rates of a set of countries significantly improves the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the models comprising only macroeconomic fundamentals commonly used in the literature to forecast the exchange rate. The paper also links the information contained in the factors to global shocks like the demand for dollars - a "dollar effect", volatility and liquidity of global financial markets.

  13. Putting the Cart before the Horse? Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    EswarPrasad; ThomasRumbaugh; QingWang

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews the issues involved in moving towards greater exchange rate flexibility and capital account liberalization in China. A more flexible exchange rate regime would allow China to operate a more independent monetary policy, providing a useful buffer against domestic and external shocks. At the same time, weaknesses in China 's financial system suggest that capital account liberalization poses significant risks and should be a lower priority in the short term. This paper concludes that greater exchange rate flexibility is in China's own interest and that, along with a more stable and robust financial system, it should be regarded as a prerequisite for undertaking a substantial liberalization of the capital account.

  14. Floating Exchange Rate Regime and Changing Dynamics of the Foreign Exchange Market in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Senkan Aldemir

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the changes caused by the implementations of currency basket peg and floating exchange regime on domestic foreign exchange market dynamics through the estimation of weights for the reserve currencies in the currency basket. Elasticity coefficients of Turkish Lira against seven currencies were estimated for two sampling periods (1995:01-1999:07 and 2002:01-2008:01 using generalized vector autoregression method. The study focuses on Turkish economy. The scope of the study represents a quite new field of investigation which is analyzed only to a limited extent in the literature. The main contribution of the study was that the study extended the empirical model which was taken as a basis in the majority of the studies on currency basket and the analyses which estimated using vector autoregression method whose sampling was limited to Asia countries, using generalized impulse response normalization approach. The findings obtained from the first period support the weights of currencies in announced basket of currencies. It was observed that Pound Sterling had a significant weight in domestic foreign exchange market dynamics in the second period.

  15. Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ahmet

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

  16. Forecasting TRY/USD Exchange Rate with Various Artificial Neural Network Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Bal

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate forecasting is one of the most common subjects among the forecasting problem field. Researchers and academicians from many different disciplines proposed various approaches for better exchange rate forecasting. In recent years, for solving the stated forecasting problem artificial neural networks have become successful tool to obtain solutions. Many different artificial neural networks have been used, developed and still developing for even better and trustable forecasts. In this study, TRY/USD exchange rate forecasting is modeled with different learning algorithms, activations functions and performance measures. Various Artificial Neural Network (ANN models for better forecasting were investigated, compared and the obtained forecasting results interpreted respectively. The results of the application show that Variable Learning Rate Backpropagation learning algorithm with tan-sigmoid activation function has the best performance for TRY/USD exchange rate forecasting.

  17. Financial imbalances, the dollar exchange rate and international monetary policy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. TRIFFIN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The continuous and spectacular rise of the dollar on the global foreign exchange market, despite the equally spectacular current account deficit of the U.S. balance of payments, is something that no economist would have dreamed to be possible. Everyone will agree that the answer to the puzzle lies in the fact that the transactions in the current account now constitute only a small part of the gross currency movements, in fact dominated by capital movements. What needs to be explained then is the sheer volume of the total net capital that finances the deficit. The present work considers this paradox, the dollar’s role in the world monetary system and medium and long-term perspectives for the world financial system.

  18. Exchange rate misalignment, capital accumulation and income distribution: Theory and evidence from the case of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oreiro José Luis

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the relationship between economic growth, income distribution and real exchange rate within the neo-Kaleckian literature, through the construction of a nonlinear macrodynamic model for an open economy in which investment in fixed capital is assumed to be a quadratic function of the real exchange rate. The model demonstrates that the prevailing regime of accumulation in a given economy depends on the type of currency misalignment, so if the real exchange rate is overvalued, then the regime of accumulation will be profit-led, but if the exchange rate is undervalued, then the accumulation regime is wage-led. Subsequently, the adherence of the theoretical model to data is tested for Brazil in the period 1994/Q3-2008/Q4. The econometric results are consistent with the theoretical non-linear specification of the investment function used in the model, so that we can define the existence of a real exchange rate that maximizes the rate of capital accumulation for the Brazilian economy. From the estimate of this optimal rate we show that the real exchange rate is overvalued in 1994/Q3- 2001/Q1 and 2005/Q4-2008/Q4 and undervalued in the period 2001/Q2-2005/Q3. As a direct corollary of this result, it follows that the prevailing regime of accumulation in the Brazilian economy after the last quarter of 2005 is profit-led.

  19. Air-soil exchange of organochlorine pesticides in a sealed chamber

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bing Yang; Baolu Han; Nandong Xue; Lingli Zhou; Fasheng Li

    2015-01-01

    So far little is known about air-soil exchange under any sealed circumstances (e.g.,in plastic and glass sheds),which however has huge implications for the soil-air-plant pathways of persistent organic pollutants including organochlorine pesticides (OCPs).A newly designed passive air sampler was tested in a sealed chamber for measuring the vertical concentration profiles of gaseous phase OCPs (hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs)).Air was sampled at 5,15,and 30 cm above ground level every 10th day during a 60-day period by deploying polyurethane foam cyhnders housed in acrylonitrile butadiene styrene-covered cartridges.Concentrations and compositions of OCPs along the vertical sections indicated a clear relationship with proximity to the mixture of HCHs and DDTs which escapes from the soils.In addition,significant positive correlations were found between air temperatures and concentrations of HCHs and DDTs.These results indicated revolatilization and re-deposition being at or close to dynamic pseudo-equilibrium with the overlying air.The sampler used for addressing air-soil exchange of persistent organic pollutants in any sealed conditions is discussed.

  20. Air-soil exchange of organochlorine pesticides in a sealed chamber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bing; Han, Baolu; Xue, Nandong; Zhou, Lingli; Li, Fasheng

    2015-01-01

    So far little is known about air-soil exchange under any sealed circumstances (e.g., in plastic and glass sheds), which however has huge implications for the soil-air-plant pathways of persistent organic pollutants including organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). A newly designed passive air sampler was tested in a sealed chamber for measuring the vertical concentration profiles of gaseous phase OCPs (hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs)). Air was sampled at 5, 15, and 30 cm above ground level every 10th day during a 60-day period by deploying polyurethane foam cylinders housed in acrylonitrile butadiene styrene-covered cartridges. Concentrations and compositions of OCPs along the vertical sections indicated a clear relationship with proximity to the mixture of HCHs and DDTs which escapes from the soils. In addition, significant positive correlations were found between air temperatures and concentrations of HCHs and DDTs. These results indicated revolatilization and re-deposition being at or close to dynamic pseudo-equilibrium with the overlying air. The sampler used for addressing air-soil exchange of persistent organic pollutants in any sealed conditions is discussed.

  1. Prediction of the Scale Removal Rate in Heat Exchanger Piping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najwa S. Majeed

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of predicting the mass transfer controlled CaCO3 scale removal rate has been investigated.Experiments were carried out using chelating agents as a cleaning solution at different time and Reynolds’s number. The results of CaCO3 scale removal or (mass transfer rate (as it is the controlling process are compared with proposed model of prandtl’s and Taylor particularly based on the concept of analogy among momentum and mass transfer.Correlation for the variation of Sherwood number ( or mass transfer rate with Reynolds’s number have been obtained .

  2. Constructal design of finned tubes used in air-cooled heat exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shokouhmand, Hossein; Mahjoub, Shoeib [University of Tehran, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Salimpour, Mohammad Reza [Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2014-06-15

    The present study documents the constructal design and optimization of finned tubes used in air-cooled heat exchangers. The considered tubes are equipped with annular fins. The aim is to minimize the overall thermal resistance by morphing the geometry. The geometrical and thermo-physical parameters considered are the number of fins, ratio of fin height to tube diameter, Stanton number, ratio of fin conductivity to air conductivity, ratio of in-tube fluid conductivity to air conductivity and dimensionless pressure drop. Two constraints are applied in the optimization process: fixed overall volume of heat exchanger and fixed volume fraction of fin material. It is found that there exist optimal values for the number and the height of fins. Moreover, the optimal heat transfer has an extremum in a special volume fraction of fin material.

  3. 20 Years of Air-Water Gas Exchange Observations for Pesticides in the Western Arctic Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantunen, Liisa M; Wong, Fiona; Gawor, Anya; Kylin, Henrik; Helm, Paul A; Stern, Gary A; Strachan, William M J; Burniston, Deborah A; Bidleman, Terry F

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic has been contaminated by legacy organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and currently used pesticides (CUPs) through atmospheric transport and oceanic currents. Here we report the time trends and air-water exchange of OCPs and CUPs from research expeditions conducted between 1993 and 2013. Compounds determined in both air and water were trans- and cis-chlordanes (TC, CC), trans- and cis-nonachlors (TN, CN), heptachlor exo-epoxide (HEPX), dieldrin (DIEL), chlorobornanes (ΣCHBs and toxaphene), dacthal (DAC), endosulfans and metabolite endosulfan sulfate (ENDO-I, ENDO-II, and ENDO SUL), chlorothalonil (CHT), chlorpyrifos (CPF), and trifluralin (TFN). Pentachloronitrobenzene (PCNB and quintozene) and its soil metabolite pentachlorothianisole (PCTA) were also found in air. Concentrations of most OCPs declined in surface water, whereas some CUPs increased (ENDO-I, CHT, and TFN) or showed no significant change (CPF and DAC), and most compounds declined in air. Chlordane compound fractions TC/(TC + CC) and TC/(TC + CC + TN) decreased in water and air, while CC/(TC + CC + TN) increased. TN/(TC + CC + TN) also increased in air and slightly, but not significantly, in water. These changes suggest selective removal of more labile TC and/or a shift in chlordane sources. Water-air fugacity ratios indicated net volatilization (FR > 1.0) or near equilibrium (FR not significantly different from 1.0) for most OCPs but net deposition (FR < 1.0) for ΣCHBs. Net deposition was shown for ENDO-I on all expeditions, while the net exchange direction of other CUPs varied. Understanding the processes and current state of air-surface exchange helps to interpret environmental exposure and evaluate the effectiveness of international protocols and provides insights for the environmental fate of new and emerging chemicals.

  4. Measurement of amide hydrogen exchange rates with the use of radiation damping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jing-Song; Lim, Jackwee; Yu, Binhan; Yang, Daiwen

    2011-09-01

    A simple method for measuring amide hydrogen exchange rates is presented, which is based on the selective inversion of water magnetization with the use of radiation damping. Simulations show that accurate exchange rates can be measured despite the complications of radiation damping and cross relaxation to the exchange process between amide and water protons. This method cannot eliminate the contributions of the exchange-relayed NOE and direct NOE to the measured exchange rates, but minimize the direct NOE contribution. In addition, the amides with a significant amount of such indirect contributions are possible to be identified from the shape of the exchange peak intensity profiles or/and from the apparent relaxation rates of amide protons which are extracted from fitting the intensity profiles to an equation established here for our experiment. The method was tested on ubiquitin and also applied to an acyl carrier protein. The amide exchange rates for the acyl carrier protein at two pHs indicate that the entire protein is highly dynamic on the second timescale. Low protection factors for the residues in the regular secondary structural elements also suggest the presence of invisible unfolded species. The highly dynamic nature of the acyl carrier protein may be crucial for its interactions with its substrate and enzymes.

  5. Mixed Multifractal Analysis of Crude Oil, Gold and Exchange Rate Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Meifeng; Shao, Shuxiang; Gao, Jianyu; Sun, Yu; Su, Weiyi

    2016-11-01

    The multifractal analysis of one time series, e.g. crude oil, gold and exchange rate series, is often referred. In this paper, we apply the classical multifractal and mixed multifractal spectrum to study multifractal properties of crude oil, gold and exchange rate series and their inner relationships. The obtained results show that in general, the fractal dimension of gold and crude oil is larger than that of exchange rate (RMB against the US dollar), reflecting a fact that the price series in gold and crude oil are more heterogeneous. Their mixed multifractal spectra have a drift and the plot is not symmetric, so there is a low level of mixed multifractal between each pair of crude oil, gold and exchange rate series.

  6. The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Brémond

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the effective exchange rate of the dollar and the oil price dynamics from 1976 to 2013. We explore the links between financial factors (exchange rate, monetary policy, international liquidity and the oil price volatility. Using a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive estimation we demonstrate that the “historical coincidence” of oil and financial crises can be explained by the specificities of the relationship between these two commodities. The results of this paper are twofold. The US Dollar effective exchange rate elasticity of crude oil prices is not constant across time and remains negative from 1989: a depreciation of the effective exchange rate of the dollar triggers an increase of crude oil prices. This paper also demonstrates the contagion of financial commodities markets development upon the global economy.

  7. The evolutionary synchronization of the exchange rate system in ASEAN+6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaobing; Hu, Haibo; Wang, Xiaofan

    2010-12-01

    Although there are extensive researches on the behavior of the world currency network, the complexity of the Asian regional currency system is not well understood regardless of its importance. Using daily exchange rates this paper examines exchange rate co-movements in the region before and after the China exchange rate reform. It was found that the correlation between Asian currencies and the US Dollar, the previous regional key currency has become weaker and intra-Asia interactions have increased. Cross sample entropy and cross entropy approaches are also applied to examine the synchrony behavior among the Asian currencies. The study also shows that the Asian exchange rate markets featured are neither stochastic nor efficient. These findings may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of collective behaviors in a regional currency network; they will also lay a theoretical foundation for further policy formulation in Asian currency integration.

  8. Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Prices for Agricultural Commodities: Empirical Evidence from Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Burakov

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate long and short-term impact of changes in oil prices and the exchange rate on prices of seven groups of agricultural products in Russia (buckwheat, grain crops, potatoes, oat, wheat, rye, barley. In this paper, Granger causality approach is applied to test long-run interlinkages with monthly data from January 1999 to October 2015. For testing the response of agricultural prices to sudden shocks in oil prices and exchange rate in the short run, we use impulse-response techniques. The results of impulse response analysis show that agricultural prices are not particularly sensitive to changes in oil prices and the exchange rate of Russian ruble in the short term, except for imported commodities. In the long run, Granger causal relationship between agricultural prices and oil prices is missing, and with exchange rate is observed only in case of imported agricultural goods.

  9. PEE-PEO block copolymer exchange rate between micelles is detergent and temperature activated

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schantz, Allen; Saboe, Patrick; Lee, Hee-Young; Sines, Ian; Butler, Paul; Bishop, Kyle; Maranas, Janna; Kumar, Manish

    We examine the kinetics of polymer chain exchange between polymer/detergent micelles, a system relevant to the synthesis of protein-containing biomimetic membranes. Although chain exchange between polymer aggregates in water is too slow to observe, adding detergent allows us to determine chain exchange rates using time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering (TR-SANS). We examine a membrane-protein-relevant, vesicle-forming ultra-short polymer, Poly(ethyl ethylene)20-Poly(ethylene oxide)18 (PEE20-PEO18). PEE20-PEO18 is solubilized in mixed micelles with the membrane-protein-compatible non-ionic detergent octyl- β -D-glucoside (OG). We show that OG activates block copolymer exchange, and obtain rate constants at two detergent concentrations above the CMC (critical micellar concentration) of OG. We find that chain exchange increases two orders of magnitude when temperature increases from 308 to 338 K, and that even a 1 mg/mL increase in OG concentration leads to a noticeable increase in exchange rate. We also calculate the activation energy for chain exchange and find that it is much higher than for lipid exchange. These findings explain the need for high detergent concentration and/or temperature to synthesize densely packed polymer/protein membranes.

  10. Exchange rate exposure of firms and the demand for foreign exchange derivatives in Brazil: did hedge or speculatiom matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines empirically how the demand of foreign exchange derivatives by Brazilian corporations is related to their exchange rate exposure. With the help of an original database of 74,567 contracts written from 1999 to 2002 between corporations and financial institutions, we were able to identify the corporations that speculated and the ones that hedged with foreign exchange derivatives during this period. Our results show that the exchange rate exposure is positively related to the foreign operational exposures for firms that speculated and negatively related for firms that hedged in 2002. For the other years of the sample period, speculation or hedge did not affect the relationship between the exchange rate exposure and the foreign operational exposure of firms.Este artigo analisa empiricamente como a demanda de derivativos de câmbio por firmas brasileiras está relacionada as suas exposições cambiais. Coma ajuda de umbanco de dados original de 74.567 contratos entre firmas e instituições financeiras de 1999 a 2002, somos capazes de identificar que empresas especularam e que empresas fizeram hedge durante o período. Nossos resultados mostram que a exposição operacional cambial das firmas está positivamente relacionada com a exposição cambial das firmas que especularam e negativamente relacionada com as firmas que fizeram hedge em 2002. Para os outros anos do período amostral, a especulação ou hedge não afetaram a relação entre a exposição operacional cambial e a exposição operacional das firmas brasileiras.

  11. Corporate Cash Flow and Stock Price Exposures to Foreign Exchange Rate Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Bartram, Söhnke M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper estimates the foreign exchange rate exposure of 6,917 U.S. nonfinancial firms on the basis of stock prices and corporate cash flows. The results show that several firms are significantly exposed to at least one of the foreign exchange rates Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and Euro, and significant exposures are more frequent at longer horizons. The percentage of firms for which stock price and earnings exposures are significantly different is relatively low, though it increases with ...

  12. The contribution of the ECU to exchange rate stability. A reply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. JAGER

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A brief reply to Sarcinelli’s criticism of the authors’ article The private ECU’s potential impact on Global and European exchange-rate stability (1988. The authors rebut the criticisms and seek to clarify their reasoning. They maintain their core hypothesis that the growth of the ECU does not necessarily enhance the stability of exchange rates but may lead to instability too.

  13. DYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE ON THE TRIANGLE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS – EXCHANGE RATE – CAPITAL MARKET

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    This paper focuses on the triangular causal relationship between foreign direct investments, exchange rate and capital market at the level of the CEE countries. For this purpose, we use the weight of market capitalization of listed companies into GDP as proxy for the degree corresponding to the stock market development, the variability of the exchange rate as proxy for the macroeconomic environment and weight of foreign direct investments into GDP as a proxy for the country’s capacity to attr...

  14. Regimes cambiais: um modelo alternativo para o Brasil Exchange rate rules: an alternative model for Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, many frameworks of exchange rate have been proposed. The aim of this paper is to propose an alternative rule of exchange rate and evaluate the case for Brazil. The analysis of the Brazilian case made necessary the evaluation of auxiliary instruments for its implementation. The paper proposes the use of capital controls or scape clauses.

  15. The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate; Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium and Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Ronald Macdonald; Taylor, Mark P.

    1992-01-01

    We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking rational expectations monetary model. We demonstrate, however, that the monetary model is validated as a long-run equilibrium condition. Moreover, imposing the long-run monetary model restrictions in a dyn...

  16. Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic War: A Comparative Study of India and Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Khuram Shafi; Liu Hua; Zahra Idrees; Amna Nazeer

    2015-01-01

    Exchange rate has proved its behavior in determining the country economic position in this age of globalization and trade liberalization. Therefore, this research investigates that the determinants of trade i.e. Import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation brings changes in exchange rate and its influence eventually on balance of payments in comparison of Indian and Pakistani economies. Data of defined variables is collected on annual basis of India and Paki...

  17. Currency Allocation of Public External Debt and Synchronization Indicators of Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Melecky

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses synchronization indicators of domestic and foreign fundamentals to choose suitable currency allocation of public external debt. The selection of explanatory variables for exchange rate volatility is motivated using a New Keynesian Policy model that predicts that not only traditional optimum currency area (OCA) variables, but also variables considered by the literature on currency preferences, such as money velocity, should be relevant for explaining exchange rate volatility. I...

  18. The structure of public debt and the choice of exchange rate regime

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Bleaney; F Gulcin Ozkan

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the relationship between the denomination of public debt and the choice of exchange rate regime. Three types of debt (nominal, indexed, and foreign) and two regimes (fixed and flexible) are considered. Indexed debt is insulated against unexpected inflation. The real (domestic-currency) value of foreign debt is subject to valuation effects from real exchange rate shocks. The `fear-of-floating' result, that foreign debt makes pegging more attractive, is shown to hold unambig...

  19. Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management: Issues and Approaches for Public Debt Managers

    OpenAIRE

    Michael G. Papaioannou

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents conventional and alternative exchange-rate risk measures for government bonds, and outlines liability management operations for dealing with currency exposure. These risk measures and liability management operations are analyzed from the perspective of a sovereign debt manager. In particular, we examine the VaR statistic as a prominent measure of exchange rate risk exposure, along with an integrated VaR approach for the simultaneous estimation of a bonded portfolio’s int...

  20. Exchange rates and individual good's price misalignment: Some preliminary evidence of long-horizon predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Wei; Nam, Deokwoo

    2011-01-01

    When prices are sticky, movements in the nominal exchange rate have a direct impact on international relative prices. A relative price misalignment would trigger an adjustment in consumption and employment, and may help to predict future movements in the exchange rate. Although purchasing-power-parity fundamentals, in general, have only weak predictability, currency misalignment may be indicated by price differentials for some goods, which could then have predictive power for subsequent re-ev...

  1. AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATE IN IRAN

    OpenAIRE

    Abbas Valadkhani

    2003-01-01

    The Iranian rial has been depreciated on average about 12 per cent per annum during the last four decades. This paper examines the long- and short-run determinants of the black market exchange rate employing the cointegration techniques and the annual time series data from 1960 to 2000. Broadly consistent with previous studies, it is found that the black market exchange rate is cointegrated with inflation, real GDP and the import price index. However, in the short run only high inflation and ...

  2. What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson; Frömmel, Michael; Menkhoff, Lukas;

    This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against co...... model performs clearly better. An empirical application of these tests suggests that real exchange rates may indeed be explained by Markov-Switching dynamics....

  3. Determination of the Electron Self-Exchange Rates of Blue Copper Proteins by Super-WEFT NMR Spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Lixin; Philipp, Else Astrid; Led, Jens J.

    2001-01-01

    Anabaena variabilis plastocyanin, blue copper proteins, electron self-exchange rates, electron transfer, super-WEFT NMR......Anabaena variabilis plastocyanin, blue copper proteins, electron self-exchange rates, electron transfer, super-WEFT NMR...

  4. Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martins Iyoboyi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments (BOP in Nigeria over the period 1961–2012. The analysis is based on a multivariate vector error correction framework. A long-term equilibrium relationship was found between BOP, exchange rate and other associated variables. The empirical results are in favour of bidirectional causality between BOP and other variables employed. Results of the generalized impulse response functions suggest that one standard deviation innovation on exchange rate reduces positive BOP in the medium and long term, while results of the variance decomposition indicate that a significant variation in Nigeria’s BOP is not due to changes in exchange rate movements. The policy implication is that exchange rate depreciation which has been preponderant in Nigeria since the mid-1980s has not been very useful in promoting the country’s positive BOP. It is recommended that growth in the real sector should be improved to enhance exports, create employment, curb inflation and reduce poverty, while cutting non-productive imports, attracting foreign private investment and implementing well coordinated macroeconomic policies that impact inflation positively and stimulate exchange rate stability.

  5. Exchange rate volatility and export growth in India: An ARDL bounds testing approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Srinivasan

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the real exports in India using the ARDL bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001. Using annual time series data, the empirical analyses has been carried out for the period 1970 to 2011. The study results confirm that real exports are cointegrated with exchange rate volatility, real exchange rate, gross domestic product and foreign economic activity. Our findings indicate that the exchange rate volatility has significant negative impact on real exports both in the short-run and long-run, implying that higher exchange rate fluctuation tends to reduce real exports in India. Besides, the real exchange rate has negative short-run and positive long-run effects on real exports. The empirical results reveal that GDP has a positive and significant impact on India’s real exports in the long-run, but the impact turns out to be insignificant in the short-run. In addition, the foreign economic activity exerts significant negative and positive impact on real exports in the short-run and long-run, respectively.

  6. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran’s Raisin Export

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate volatility is one of the effective and ambiguous factors in agricultural product export. Considering the importance of agricultural trade to avoid single-product economy, the main aim of this study was to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the Raisin export of Iran during the years1959-2011. For this purpose, exchange rate volatility index was estimated using Moving Average Standard Deviation (MASD. Then, the impact of exchange rate volatility on the value of Raisin export was examined using Johansen's and Juselius's cointegration method and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM.The results showed that in the long-term and short-term there is a significant relationship between Raisin exports and its main variables (weighted average of Gross income of importers, Wholesale Prices, real exchange rate, Value-added of agricultural sector; as according to the theory it has negative relationship with exchange rate volatility. The error correction coefficient sentence ECM (-1 significantly and its sign was negative as expected. The value of this coefficient is equal to the -0/20 and indicates that about 20 percent of Raisin exports imbalance from its long-term value, after of a period will be Elapse.

  7. Forecasting RMB Exchange Rate Based on a Nonlinear Combination Model of ARFIMA, SVM, and BPNN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Xie

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There are various models to predict financial time series like the RMB exchange rate. In this paper, considering the complex characteristics of RMB exchange rate, we build a nonlinear combination model of the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA model, the support vector machine (SVM model, and the back-propagation neural network (BPNN model to forecast the RMB exchange rate. The basic idea of the nonlinear combination model (NCM is to make the prediction more effective by combining different models’ advantages, and the weight of the combination model is determined by a nonlinear weighted mechanism. The RMB exchange rate against US dollar (RMB/USD and the RMB exchange rate against Euro (RMB/EUR are used as the empirical examples to evaluate the performance of NCM. The results show that the prediction performance of the nonlinear combination model is better than the single models and the linear combination models, and the nonlinear combination model is suitable for the prediction of the special time series, such as the RMB exchange rate.

  8. Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Muntazir; Zebende, Gilney Figueira; Bashir, Usman; Donghong, Ding

    2017-01-01

    Most empirical literature investigates the relation between oil prices and exchange rate through different models. These models measure this relationship on two time scales (long and short terms), and often fail to observe the co-movement of these variables at different time scales. We apply a detrended cross-correlation approach (DCCA) to investigate the co-movements of the oil price and exchange rate in 12 Asian countries. This model determines the co-movements of oil price and exchange rate at different time scale. The exchange rate and oil price time series indicate unit root problem. Their correlation and cross-correlation are very difficult to measure. The result becomes spurious when periodic trend or unit root problem occurs in these time series. This approach measures the possible cross-correlation at different time scale and controlling the unit root problem. Our empirical results support the co-movements of oil prices and exchange rate. Our results support a weak negative cross-correlation between oil price and exchange rate for most Asian countries included in our sample. The results have important monetary, fiscal, inflationary, and trade policy implications for these countries.

  9. Forecasting of currency exchange rates using an adaptive ARMA model with differential evolution based training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minakhi Rout

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To alleviate the limitations of statistical based methods of forecasting of exchange rates, soft and evolutionary computing based techniques have been introduced in the literature. To further the research in this direction this paper proposes a simple but promising hybrid prediction model by suitably combining an adaptive autoregressive moving average (ARMA architecture and differential evolution (DE based training of its feed-forward and feed-back parameters. Simple statistical features are extracted for each exchange rate using a sliding window of past data and are employed as input to the prediction model for training its internal coefficients using DE optimization strategy. The prediction efficiency is validated using past exchange rates not used for training purpose. Simulation results using real life data are presented for three different exchange rates for one–fifteen months’ ahead predictions. The results of the developed model are compared with other four competitive methods such as ARMA-particle swarm optimization (PSO, ARMA-cat swarm optimization (CSO, ARMA-bacterial foraging optimization (BFO and ARMA-forward backward least mean square (FBLMS. The derivative based ARMA-FBLMS forecasting model exhibits worst prediction performance of the exchange rates. Comparisons of different performance measures including the training time of the all three evolutionary computing based models demonstrate that the proposed ARMA-DE exchange rate prediction model possesses superior short and long range prediction potentiality compared to others.

  10. Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Thorstensen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

  11. Direct measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over a coral reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish A.; MacKellar, Mellissa C.; Gray, Michael A.

    2016-05-01

    Quantification of CO2 exchange with the atmosphere over coral reefs has relied on microscale measurements of pCO2 gradients across the air-sea interfacial boundary; shipboard measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over adjacent ocean inferred to represent over reef processes or ecosystem productivity modeling. Here we present by way of case study the first direct measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over a coral reef made using the eddy covariance method. Research was conducted during the summer monsoon over a lagoonal platform reef in the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Results show the reef flat to be a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of similar magnitude as coastal lakes, while adjacent shallow and deep lagoons were net sinks as was the surrounding ocean. This heterogeneity in CO2 exchange with the atmosphere confirms need for spatially representative direct measurements of CO2 over coral reefs to accurately quantify their role in atmospheric carbon budgets.

  12. The Renminbi Exchange Rate Reform and the Rebalancing of China’s Growth Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANBO; SONG; SEAN; MACKINNON; SONGTAO; TAN

    2015-01-01

    This paper posits that a proper way to estimate the Renminbi(RMB) exchange rate is to base the evaluation on the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and that the optimal way to facilitate China’s growth model transformation is gradual RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization. Regression estimates show that the gross domestic product per capita growth rate, or the productivity growth rate, has strong explanatory validity when estimating the RMB exchange rate. The findings further assert that, as the growth of gross fixed capital formation slows, and the growth of household consumption speeds up, China’s economic growth will be sustained. The RMB exchange rate regime is one in which gradual reforms must yield to interest rates levels and hence should only be revalued conditionally.

  13. Zero-Spring-Rate Mechanism/Air Suspension Cart

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodard, Stanley E.; Cooley, Victor M.

    1991-01-01

    Compact mechanism suspends articulating flexible structures with minimal constraints. Zero-spring-rate mechanism (ZSRM) air suspension cart used to suspend flexible, "mass-critical" articles like lightweight spacecraft undergoing such large motions as slewing, translation, and telescoping/retraction. Suspends flexible article undergoing large rigid-body motion concurrent with vibratory motion, with minimal interaction between suspended article and suspending hardware. Adaptive to active control, which reduces undesirable effects caused by friction, nonlinearity, and mass coupling. Practical for most suspension applications.

  14. Examination of the effects of public spending and trade policy on real exchange rate in Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victalice Ngimanang ACHAMOH

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The study adopts the inter-temporal model of Rodríguez (1989 and Edward (1989 extended in Elbadawi and Soto (1997 to empirically examine the effect of public expenditure and trade openness on the real exchange rate using Cameroon data from 1977 to 2010. After exploring some issues on exchange rate and reviewing the relevant literature, the study employs residual based-cointegration technique. All the variables were stationary at level form or first differences. Public spending significantly appreciates the real exchange likewise the trade openness variable in the longrun. The results of the study suggests that appreciation of real exchange rate could be prevented by contracting public spending or adopting restrictive trade measures especially in the long run.

  15. Exchange rate and oil price interactions in transition economies: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayat Tayfur

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates causal dynamics between crude oil prices and exchange rates in Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary by employing monthly data from the beginning of flexible exchange regime in each country to December 2011. The study benefits from the recent advance in the time series econometric analysis and carries out linear causality, non-linear causality, volatility spillover and frequency domain causality tests. The frequency domain causality analysis results imply that oil price fluctuations affect real exchange rates in the long run in Poland and Czech Republic. On the other hand, frequency domain causality test results indicate that oil price fluctuations do not affect exchange rate in any period in Hungary despite its economy’s high imported energy dependency.

  16. A Comparison of the Monetary Model and Artificial Neural Networks in Exchange Rate Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz Ozkan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Exchange value is one of the significant tools for investors in decision making. Since exchange values are volatile and they change within short periods, investors need an effective method to minimize the risk. This study compares the prediction performances of artificial neural networks, which is recently being used as an effective tool of prediction, and the monetary model, which is one of the methods to predict structural exchange rates. In this study exchange rates of Turkish Lira against US Dollar and Euro are predicted. In models, inflation levels for domestic and foreign countries, money supply, interest rates and economic indicators are used. The time period between 1986 and 2010 is covered for the USD and the time period between 1999 and 2010 is covered for the EU. Results of this study show that ANN, which is recently being used for the prediction problems, reached a high level prediction performance.

  17. Air-sea exchanges of materials in the Indian Ocean: Concerns and strategies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.

    . of AP Akademi of Sciences Vol. 8, No. 3, 2004, pp. 175 -182 AIR-SEA EXCHANGES OF MATERIALS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION: CONCERNS AND STRATEGIES M. DILEEP KUMAR National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403 004. Exchanges of materials... present abundance of 371 ppmv (parts per million by volume), is ranked as the major culprit causing global warming. The last century witnessed a clear rise of 0.6-0.8?C in the atmospheric temperature which is sufficient to have caused changes in regional...

  18. A review on the thermal hydraulic characteristics of the air-cooled heat exchangers in forced convection

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ankur Kumar; Jyeshtharaj B Joshi; Arun K Nayak; Pallippattu K Vijayan

    2015-05-01

    In this paper, a review is presented on the experimental investigations and the numerical simulations performed to analyze the thermal-hydraulic performance of the air-cooled heat exchangers. The air-cooled heat exchangers mostly consist of the finned-tube bundles. The primary role of the extended surfaces (fins) is to provide more heat transfer area to enhance the rate of heat transfer on the air side. The secondary role of the fins is to generate vortices, which help in enhancing the mixing and the heat transfer coefficient. In this study, the annular and plate fins are considered, the annular fins are further divided into four categories: (1) plane annular fins, (2) serrated fins, (3) crimped spiral fins, (4) perforated fins, and similarly for the plate fins, the fin types are: (1) plain plate fins, (2) wavy plate fins, (3) plate fins with DWP, and (4) slit and strip fins. In Section 4, the performance of the various types of fins is presented with respect to the parameters: (1) Reynolds number, (2) fin pitch, (3) fin height, (4) fin thickness, (5) tube diameter, (6) tube pitch, (7) tube type, (8) number of tube rows, and (9) effect of dehumidifying conditions. In Section 5, the conclusions and the recommendations for the future work have been given.

  19. Measuring Infiltration Rates in Homes as a Basis for Understanding Indoor Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerz, G. G.; Lamb, B. K.; Pressley, S. N.; O'Keeffe, P.; Fuchs, M.; Kirk, M.

    2015-12-01

    Infiltration rates, or the rate of air exchange, of houses are important to understand because ventilation can be a dominate factor in determining indoor air quality. There are chemicals that are emitted from surfaces or point sources inside the home which are harmful to humans; these chemicals come from various objects including furniture, cleaning supplies, building materials, gas stoves, and the surrounding environment. The use of proper ventilation to cycle cleaner outdoor air into the house can be crucial for maintaining healthy living conditions in the home. At the same time, there can also be outdoor pollutants which infiltrate the house and contribute to poor indoor air quality. In either case, it is important to determine infiltration rates as a function of outdoor weather conditions, the house structure properties and indoor heating and cooling systems. In this work, the objective is to measure ventilation rates using periodic releases of a tracer gas and measuring how quickly the tracer concentration decays. CO2 will be used as the tracer gas because it is inert and harmless at low levels. An Arduino timer is connected to a release valve which controls the release of 9.00 SLPM of CO2 into the uptake vent within the test home. CO2 will be released until there is at least a 200 to 300 ppm increase above ambient indoor levels. Computers with CO2 sensors and temperature/pressure sensors attached will be used to record data from different locations within the home which will continuously record data up to a week. The results from these periodic ventilation measurements will be analyzed with respect to outdoor wind and temperature conditions and house structure properties. The data will be used to evaluate an established indoor air quality model.

  20. TRADE, EXCHANGE RATE AND AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN MALAYSIA

    OpenAIRE

    Glenn Jenkins; Andrew Lai

    1989-01-01

    Malaysia, a country of approximately 16 million people which gained independence in 1957, relied heavily on trade to achieve substantial growth in GNP during the 1960s (6.7 percent per year) and 1970s (10.5 percent per year). In the period 1980-83, however, the rate slipped to 3.1 percent per year. Malaysia’s traditional exports are natural rubber and palm oil, but in the 1970s the country also became an important exporter of crude oil. During the study period (1960-83) government interventio...

  1. Effect of Air Cleaning Technologies in Conjunction With the Use of Rotary Heat Exchangers in Residential Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Afshari, Alireza; Bergsøe, Niels Christian; Ekberg, Lars

    2013-01-01

    with rotary air-to-air heat exchangers. For this purpose, a mechanical filter with low pressure drop and a 4 cm thick activated carbon filter were selected for testing in a laboratory environment. The measurements included testing of the filters, separately and combined, in a ductwork to study the efficiency...... of the filters. The removal efficiency of the mechanical filter for ultrafine particles was examined using burning candles as sources for emission of particles. The measurements in the duct showed that the efficiency of the particle filter ranged between approximately 50% and 80% and the pressure loss...... of gases. The measurement results showed that the efficiency of the combined filters ranged between approximately 30% and 80% and the pressure loss was less than approximately 20 Pascal at an airflow rate of 250 m3/h....

  2. An empirical study of exchange rate pass-through in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Xiaowen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to estimate exchange rate pass-through in China and investigate its relationship with monetary policy. Linear and VAR models are applied to analyze robustness. The linear model shows that, over the long run, a 1% appreciation of NEER causes a decline in the CPI inflation rate of 0.132% and PPI inflation rate of 0.495%. The VAR model supports the results of the linear model, suggesting a fairly low CPI pass-through and relatively higher PPI pass-through. Furthermore, this paper finds that, with the fixed exchange rate regime, CPI pass-through remains higher. The exchange rate regimes influence on CPI pass through, combined with the fact that appreciation diminishes inflation, suggests that the Chinese government could pursue a more flexible exchange rate policy. In addition, reasons for low exchange rate pass-through for CPI are analyzed. The analysis considers price control, basket and weight of Chinese price indices, distribution cost, and imported and non-tradable share of inputs.

  3. External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Deviations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Caputo

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available There is substantial evidence suggesting that central banks in open economies react to exchange rate fluctuations, in addition to expected inflation and output. In some developing countries this reaction is comparatively larger and it is nonlinear. In an estimated structural macromodel for Chile, this paper assesses the advantages and potential costs of adopting such a reaction function. We conclude that, in the face of most of the external shocks, a policy rule that responds to exchange rate misalignments smooths inflation and output variability, while marginally increasing interest rate fluctuations. On the other hand, for some domestic innovations such a rule performs poorly. When all the shocks are considered at the same time, this rule generates important welfare gains. Finally, when the volatility of external shocks rises, increasing the response to exchange rate misalignments brings welfare improvements. In fact, a more aggressive response to the exchange rate offsets the impact that greater external volatility has on output and inflation, at the cost of inducing higher interest rate fluctuations. In this way, one can interpret the nonlinear reaction to the exchange rate as an optimal response to a more volatile external environment.

  4. Kinetic bottlenecks to chemical exchange rates for deep-sea animals II: Carbon dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, A. F.; Peltzer, E. T.; Brewer, P. G.

    2012-11-01

    Increased ocean acidification from fossil fuel CO2 invasion, from temperature-driven changes in respiration, and from possible leakage from sub-seabed geologic CO2 disposal has aroused concern over the impacts of elevated CO2 concentrations on marine life. Discussion of these impacts has so far focused only on changes in the oceanic bulk fluid properties (ΔpH, Δ[∑CO2] etc.) as the critical variable and with a major focus on carbonate shell dissolution. Here we describe the rate problem for animals that must export CO2 at about the same rate at which O2 is consumed. We analyze the basic properties controlling CO2 export within the diffusive boundary layer around marine animals in an ocean changing in temperature (T) and CO2 concentration in order to compare the challenges posed by O2 uptake under stress with the equivalent problem of CO2 expulsion. The problem is more complex than that for a non-reactive gas since, as with gas exchange of CO2 at the air-sea interface, the influence of the ensemble of reactions within the CO2-HCO3--CO32- acid-base system needs to be considered. These reactions significantly facilitate CO2 efflux compared to O2 intake at equal temperature, pressure and flow rate under typical oceanic concentrations.The effect of these reactions can be described by an enhancement factor. For organisms, this means mechanically increasing flow over their surface to thin the boundary layer as is required to alleviate O2 stress seems not necessary to facilitate CO2 efflux. Nevertheless the elevated pCO2 cost most likely is non-zero. Regionally as with O2 the combination of T, P, and pH/pCO2 creates a zone of maximum CO2 stress at around 1000 m depth. But the net result is that, for the problem of gas exchange with the bulk ocean, the combination of an increasing T combined with declining O2 poses a greater challenge to marine life than does increasing CO2. The relationships developed here allow a more accurate prediction of the impacts on marine life

  5. Evidence of interface exchange magnetism in self-assembled cobalt-fullerene nanocomposites exposed to air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavrentiev, V.; Stupakov, A.; Lavrentieva, I.; Motylenko, M.; Barchuk, M.; Rafaja, D.

    2017-03-01

    We report on the establishing of an exclusive magnetic effect in air-exposed CoxC60 nanocomposites (x > 2) created through self-assembling in the depositing mixture. In order to verify the influence of ambient air on the CoxC60 mixture film, we have studied in detail the film magnetization at rather low temperatures, which provides their ferromagnetic behavior. Tracing the possible exchange bias effect, we distinguished a clear vertical shift of the hysteresis loops recorded for the air-exposed CoxC60 films in the field cooling (FC) regime. The detected vertical shift of the FC loops is caused by an uncompensated magnetic moment M u induced by exchange coupling of the Co spins at the Co/CoO interface. This interface arises due to the oxidation of small Co clusters distributed in a C60-based matrix of self-assembled composite films, which occurs during air exposure. The core–shell structure of the Co/CoO magnetic clusters (about 2–3 nm in size) consisting of a ε-Co core and fcc-CoO shell was confirmed by means of transmission electron microscopy. Established interface magnetism testifies to a composite nanostructure in the CoxC60 mixture film with x > 2 and explains the influence of air exposure on the film structure. The discovered magnetic effect implies a new application potential for cobalt-fullerene composites in sensors and catalysis.

  6. Peptide-Column Interactions and Their Influence on Back Exchange Rates in Hydrogen/Deuterium Exchange-MS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheff, Joey G.; Rey, Martial; Schriemer, David C.

    2013-07-01

    Hydrogen/deuterium exchange (HDX) methods generate useful information on protein structure and dynamics, ideally at the individual residue level. Most MS-based HDX methods involve a rapid proteolytic digestion followed by LC/MS analysis, with exchange kinetics monitored at the peptide level. Localizing specific sites of HDX is usually restricted to a resolution the size of the host peptide because gas-phase processes can scramble deuterium throughout the peptide. Subtractive methods may improve resolution, where deuterium levels of overlapping and nested peptides are used in a subtractive manner to localize exchange to smaller segments. In this study, we explore the underlying assumption of the subtractive method, namely, that the measured back exchange kinetics of a given residue is independent of its host peptide. Using a series of deuterated peptides, we show that secondary structure can be partially retained under quenched conditions, and that interactions between peptides and reversed-phase LC columns may both accelerate and decelerate residue HDX, depending upon peptide sequence and length. Secondary structure is induced through column interactions in peptides with a solution-phase propensity for structure, which has the effect of slowing HDX rates relative to predicted random coil values. Conversely, column interactions can orient random-coil peptide conformers to accelerate HDX, the degree to which correlates with peptide charge in solution, and which can be reversed by using stronger ion pairing reagents. The dependency of these effects on sequence and length suggest that subtractive methods for improving structural resolution in HDX-MS will not offer a straightforward solution for increasing exchange site resolution.

  7. Mercury Exchange at the Air-Water-Soil Interface: An Overview of Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengman Fang

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt is made to assess the present knowledge about the methods of determining mercury (Hg exchange at the air-water-soil interface during the past 20 years. Methods determining processes of wet and dry removal/deposition of atmospheric Hg to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, as well as methods determining Hg emission fluxes to the atmosphere from natural surfaces (soil and water are discussed. On the basis of the impressive advances that have been made in the areas relating to Hg exchange among air-soil-water interfaces, we analyzed existing problems and shortcomings in our current knowledge. In addition, some important fields worth further research are discussed and proposed.

  8. Capital accumulation, structural change and real exchange rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist growth model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oreiro José Luis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to show at theoretical level that maintaining a competitive real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model that combines elements of Kaleckian growth models with the balance of payments constrained growth models pioneered developed by Thirlwall. In this setting, the level of real exchange rate is capable, due to its effect over capital accumulation, to induce a structural change in the economy, making endogenous income elasticities of exports and imports. For reasonable parameter values it is shown that in steady-state growth there is two long-run equilibrium values for real exchange rate, one that corresponds to an under-valued currency and another that corresponds to an over-valued currency. If monetary authorities run exchange rate policy in order to target a competitive level for real exchange rate, than under-valued equilibrium is stable and the economy will show a high growth rate in the long-run.

  9. R&D on Resistive Heat Exchangers for HTS High Rated Current Leads%R&D on Resistive Heat Exchangers for HTS High Rated Current Leads

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毕延芳

    2011-01-01

    The HTS current leads of superconducting magnets for large scale fusion devices and high energy particle colliders can reduce the power consumption for cooling by 2/3 compared with conventional leads. The resistive sections of high-rated current leads are usually made of a heat exchanger cooled by gas flow. The supply of the cooling mass flow incurs more than 90% of the cooling cost for the HTS leads. The mass flow rate requirement depends not only on the length and material of the resistive heat exchanger, but also on the heat transfer coefficient and HEX surface, the joint resistance at the cold end of a sheet-stack HEX with a larger specific presented in the paper. The test results of efficiency can be achieved. and its cooling approach. The design and operation surface and a much smaller hydraulic diameter are an HTS lead optimized for 8 kA show that a 98.4%

  10. Dynamic Linkages between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Iran and South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akbar Tavakoli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of present study is to analyze the relationship between stock and exchange markets in two Asian countries, Iran and South Korea. A monthly time series of stock price and exchange rate are used over the period 2002: 05 - 2012: 03. The data is collected from the Central Bank of each country and WDI. The calculated stock return and real exchange rate change are used in analysis. An econometric multiple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH BEKK method and the Rats software are applied to analyze a dynamic relationship between two markets in each country. The estimated results show a bidirectional relationship between two markets in South Korean economy and only a unidirectional relationship from exchange market to stock market in Iranian economy. The persistence of volatility transmission effects of each market on its own is also found in each economy. In the exchange market, this effect is in opposite direction in Iran compared to Korea, whereas in the stock market both effects are positive and almost the same in two economies. The policy implication of finding is clear. The financial policymakers should watch both stock and exchange markets in two economies to prevent the bidirectional volatility effects between two markets in Korea and the unidirectional volatility from the exchange market to sock market in Iran.

  11. Autonomy and Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy under the De Facto Fixed Exchange Rate System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huayu Sun

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses monthly data to examine the autonomy and effectiveness of monetary policy in China under the de facto fixed exchange rate arrangement in place from 1998 to 2005. The results obtained from Granger causality tests in a vector autoregresslon framework indicate that: (i) China actually conducted independent monetary policy during the fired exchange rate period; and (ii) market-oriented policy measures are impotent in influencing real output and prices. The framework of the investigation into the autonomy of monetary policy adapts to the Chinese economic condition that primary loan and deposit rates are set by the central bank. Based on the empirical results, the present paper provides alternative strategies to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, including developing the financial system and solidifying microeconoraic fundamentals instead of forcing the adaptation of a more flexible exchange rate regime.

  12. Chaoticity in the time evolution of foreign currency exchange rates in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cakar, O.; Aybar, O. O.; Hacinliyan, A. S.; Kusbeyzi, I.

    Tools from chaos theory that have found recent use in analysing financial markets have been applied to the US Dollar and Euro buying and selling rates against the Turkish currency. The reason for choosing the foreign exchange rate in this analysis is the fact that foreign currency is an indicator of not only the globalization of economy but also savings and investment. In order to test the globality assumption and to ascertain the degree of involvement of local conditions in Turkey, the Euro and US dollar exchange rates have been subjected to the same analysis.

  13. Empirical Tests of the Assumptions Underlying Models for Foreign Exchange Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-03-01

    Martinengo (1980) extends a model by Dornbusch (1976) in which market equilibrium is formalized in terms of interest rates, level of prices, public...55-65. Dornbusch , R., "The Theory of Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Policy", Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 78, 1976, pP. 255

  14. The Effect of Changes in Real Exchange Rates on Employment: Evidence from Manufacturing Industries in China,1980-2002

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FAN Yanhui; SONG Wang

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effect of changes in real exchange rate on manufacturing employment.Our theoretical model predicts the positive effect of depreciation of real exchange rate on employment through a firm's expectation on changes in real exchange rate and the interaction between real exchange rate and a firm's import and domestic input.Using China's manufacturing data during the 1980-2003 period,we find that depreciation of real exchange rate promotes employment growth in manufacturing industries,while change in real exchange rate is not a significant factor in promoting wage growth.We also find that an increase in export share offsets partially the effects of real exchange rate on employment and real wages.

  15. Study of influence of exchange rate change on the supply and demand of energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sohn, Y.H.; Shin, D.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-08-01

    The change of relative prices of trading goods and non-trading goods due to appreciation or depreciation of real exchange rates influences industrial structure and trading infrastructure by changing output, consumption, import and export, and prices of domestic economy. Considering that energy is used as intermediate input of all industrial sectors as well as in final consumption in the Korean economy which lacks energy resources and relies on imported energy resources, I believe that assessing the concrete effects of the real exchange rate change onto the energy industry must be a very important item in establishing effective energy policy. In this thesis, I measure the elasticity of the exchange rate as endogenous factors related to the energy industry using a CGE model that breaks down the energy industry. One (1) % depreciation of real exchange rate increases the domestic sales prices of all energy industry sectors, and the price increase ratios of petroleum and coal products are calculated as the highest among these. Petroleum and coal products show the highest price increase ratios while both the output and export decrease. On the other hand, depreciation increases the domestic sales prices of power generation, city gas, and heating sectors, but it is found to increase the output apart from petroleum and coal products. Depreciation of the real exchange rate is found to change the composition of the energy industry from petroleum and coal products to power generation, city gas, and heating sectors. 11 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

  16. The Effects of Exchange Rate Market in the Economy of Kosova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Argjira Kadrijaj Dushi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From a conducted centralized economy, Kosovo‟s economy became a free market after 1999. This made the economy of Kosovo to face a lot of challenges. One of them and still a topic not studied among Kosovo economists is the Kosovo currency. Kosovo is not yet a member of EU but since 2002 is using euro currency. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using euro currency for the economy of Kosovo? This was not questionable in 2002, because Kosovo was still in the first steps of creating a financial system. But, today the importance of exchange rates in economy is crucial as a result of the internationalization of businesses, the constant increase of world trade with the national one and the rapid change of money transfer technology. In this research, through quantitative and qualitative methods is analyzed the development of exchange rate market in Kosovo and the effects of exchange rates movements in Kosovo economy, its GDP and inflation and in consumer price index. The research will point out the importance of exchange rates as an interest variable for some of Kosovo businesses and its effects in the transition economy of Kosovo which has not been exposed to exchange rates risk on macroeconomic variables.

  17. Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1960-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Waheed

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria for the period between 1960 and 2015 using the vector error correction mechanism to separate long run from the short run fundamentals. The findings from the regression estimates revealed that; terms of trade, openness of the economy, net capital inflow and total government expenditure were the major long run determinants of real effective exchange rate in the country while variables such as; broad money supply (M2, nominal effective exchange rate, structural adjustment program dummy, June 12 crisis and change to civil rule dummies were revealed as the major short run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015. The study concludes by recommending that since the major variable of terms of trade (crude oil price is out of the government control, the effect of shocks due to the fluctuations of crude oil price can be minimized by shifting the economy from a mono-product nation and diversify the economy to increase productive capacity. Also, the change to civil rule dummy used in the study revealed that the system has not been friendly with the country’s real effective exchange rate, thus needing to review the system and bringing out all negative activities there in to ensure Nigeria’s currency appreciation. Guided openness is also suggested to avert the danger that unguided trade liberalization may bring into the country.

  18. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  19. THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE EXCHANGE RATE AND THE DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halmi Mirela

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the fall of the monetary system from Bretton Woods, based on a system of fixed rates, numerous theoretical and empirical articles have emerged through which the volatility of the exchange rate and the commercial influxes was analyzed and the identification of specific connections regarding the transmission of the effects of the modification of the exchange rapport of a currency in economy was tried. The general idea from these works start from the uncertainties regarding the evolution of a currency in comparison to another and their effects on the goods and services balance of a state. Important works from the domain are evaluated. The authors are renowned researchers in the area of international finances and some of them are part of the personnel of the most important international finance-banking institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of International Settlements. The studies regarding the relation between the exchange rates and the direct foreign investments are contradictory: some do not find a significant influence of the exchange rate and other demonstrate that there is a strong connection between the two variables. If a connection between the two variables is established, it remains to be settled if the connection is direct or reversed. The Granger causality test identified the characteristics of the relation between the direct foreign investments and the exchange rate. The conclusions of the research mark out the complex nature of the relation between the two variables, the results being extremely heterogeneous from one country to another.

  20. Preliminary Analysis on Heat Removal Capacity of Passive Air-Water Combined Cooling Heat Exchanger Using MARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Seung-Sin; Jeon, Seong-Su; Hong, Soon-Joon [FNC Tech, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Bae, Sung-Won; Kwon, Tae-Soon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Current design requirement for working time of PAFS heat exchanger is about 8 hours. Thus, it is not satisfied with the required cooling capability for the long term SBO(Station Black-Out) situation that is required to over 72 hours cooling. Therefore PAFS is needed to change of design for 72 hours cooling. In order to acquirement of long terms cooling using PAFS, heat exchanger tube has to be submerged in water tank for long time. However, water in the tank is evaporated by transferred heat from heat exchanger tubes, so water level is gradually lowered as time goes on. The heat removal capacity of air cooling heat exchanger is core parameter that is used for decision of applicability on passive air-water combined cooling system using PAFS in long term cooling. In this study, the development of MARS input model and plant accident analysis are performed for the prediction of the heat removal capacity of air cooling heat exchanger. From analysis result, it is known that inflow air velocity is the decisive factor of the heat removal capacity and predicted air velocity is lower than required air velocity. But present heat transfer model and predicted air velocity have uncertainty. So, if changed design of PAFS that has over 4.6 kW heat removal capacity in each tube, this type heat exchanger can be applied to long term cooling of the nuclear power plant.

  1. Prototype Systems for Measuring Outdoor Air Intake Rates in Rooftop Air Handlers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chan, Wanyu R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hotchi, Toshifumi [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The widespread absence of systems for real-time measurement and feedback control, of minimum outdoor air intake rates in HVAC systems contributes to the poor control of ventilation rates in commercial buildings. Ventilation rates affect building energy consumption and influence occupant health. The project designed fabricated and tested four prototypes of systems for measuring rates of outdoor air intake into roof top air handlers. All prototypes met the ±20% accuracy target at low wind speeds, with all prototypes accurate within approximately ±10% after application of calibration equations. One prototype met the accuracy target without a calibration. With two of four prototype measurement systems, there was no evidence that wind speed or direction affected accuracy; however, winds speeds were generally below usually 3.5 m s-1 (12.6 km h-1) and further testing is desirable. The airflow resistance of the prototypes was generally less than 35 Pa at maximum RTU air flow rates. A pressure drop of this magnitude will increase fan energy consumption by approximately 4%. The project did not have resources necessary to estimate costs of mass produced systems. The retail cost of components and materials used to construct prototypes ranged from approximately $1,200 to $1,700. The test data indicate that the basic designs developed in this project, particularly the designs of two of the prototypes, have considerable merit. Further design refinement, testing, and cost analysis would be necessary to fully assess commercial potential. The designs and test results will be communicated to the HVAC manufacturing community.

  2. Does implied volatility of currency futures option imply volatility of exchange rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Alan T.

    2007-02-01

    By investigating currency futures options, this paper provides an alternative economic implication for the result reported by Stein [Overreactions in the options market, Journal of Finance 44 (1989) 1011-1023] that long-maturity options tend to overreact to changes in the implied volatility of short-maturity options. When a GARCH process is assumed for exchange rates, a continuous-time relationship is developed. We provide evidence that implied volatilities may not be the simple average of future expected volatilities. By comparing the term-structure relationship of implied volatilities with the process of the underlying exchange rates, we find that long-maturity options are more consistent with the exchange rates process. In sum, short-maturity options overreact to the dynamics of underlying assets rather than long-maturity options overreacting to short-maturity options.

  3. EU enlargement and new member countries' involvement in the exchange rates system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlatka Bilas

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available For each country, joining the union is a unique process, considering advantages and disadvantages which a country can thus obtain. In order to fulfill conditions for the EU accession, transition countries must achieve different convergence criteria. Expansion of the EU brings along many challenges including coordination of policies and conducting a common monetary policy. After joining the EU new members are expected to have a minimum of two years of participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism 2 before accepting euro. ERM2 can be a flexible and efficient framework for the determination of a appropriate level of irrevocable exchange rate fixing according to euro, as well as for achieving macroeconomic stability. Even though, considering demands for complete abolition of capital controls and high capital mobility, fixed exchange rate with fluctuation margins of ±15% is to become sensitive to the capital movements and speculative attacks.

  4. EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH, IMPORT PRICES AND INFLATION UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arintoko Arintoko

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This research estimates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT into import prices by applying an extension of the basic model of ERPT on Indonesia. It estimates models of cointegration and error-correction mechanism (ECM, with and without structural breaks. It uses the techniques of Zivot-Andrews and of Gregory-Hansen to test for structural breaks and cointegration with the structural breaks, respectively. The results show that with the control variables, inflation affects import prices and lower the pass-through for short term, in a condition of free floating exchange rate. In the short term, with the inclusion of structural breaks, significant inflation affects import prices and lowers the ERPT coefficient.  Keywords:    Exchange rate pass-through, inflation, structural breaks, cointegration, error-correction mechanismJEL classification numbers: C22, C32, E31, F41

  5. Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna

    2016-01-01

    1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

  6. Horizontal Air-Ground Heat Exchanger Performance and Humidity Simulation by Computational Fluid Dynamic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Maria Congedo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Improving energy efficiency in buildings and promoting renewables are key objectives of European energy policies. Several technological measures are being developed to enhance the energy performance of buildings. Among these, geothermal systems present a huge potential to reduce energy consumption for mechanical ventilation and cooling, but their behavior depending on varying parameters, boundary and climatic conditions is not fully established. In this paper a horizontal air-ground heat exchanger (HAGHE system is studied by the development of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD model. Summer and winter conditions representative of the Mediterranean climate are analyzed to evaluate operation and thermal performance differences. A particular focus is given to humidity variations as this parameter has a major impact on indoor air quality and comfort. Results show the benefits that HAGHE systems can provide in reducing energy consumption in all seasons, in summer when free-cooling can be implemented avoiding post air treatment using heat pumps.

  7. Air renewal times and ventilation rate calculations for underground workings using radioactive measurement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ayman A. El-Abnoudy⇑; Sayed F. Hassan

    2016-01-01

    Potential alpha emitters are of prime concern to the ventilation engineer due to their rapid concentration increasing once radon released in the mine atmosphere, causing tissue irradiation and lung cancer. Studying of the time based variations of the natural ventilation in tunnels and their relationship to the external parameters contribute to the air circulation assessment. Due to the continuous and high fluctu-ation of the meteorological conditions affecting the air circulation and intensity through the underground workings, there is a difficulty in the natural ventilation assessment by only the ordinary meteorological measurements. So, in this paper, the possibility of using the radioactive measurements, allowing for the air aging and ventilation quality to be qualified, is investigated through three different underground structures. Referring to the most confined structure of them, results show that one structure has a better exchange rate by a factor 1.8 and the other has the best rate by a factor 2.1. This parameter can be linked to the operating costs and size of a future ventilation system.

  8. The Influence of International Parity on the Exchange Rate: Purchasing Power Parity and International Fisher Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Mionel

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This article assesses the impact of the inflationand interest rates on the exchange rates.The analysis tests the relation between the inflation rate and the exchange rate by applying thePurchasing Power Parity Theory, while the relationbetween the interest rate and the inflation rate istested by applying the International Fisher EffectTheory. In order to test the Purchasing Power Paritythe study takes into account the period of time between 1990 – 2009, and the following countries –the USA, Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Canada, Japan and China. As for testing the InternationalFisher Effect Theory the period of time is the same, 1990 – 2009, but a few countries are different –the USA, Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Canada, Australia and New Zeeland. Thus, both theoriesanalyse the USA as home country.

  9. Investigation the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Export of Agricultural Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jamalipour

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Agricultural commodity export is a main attribute of developing countries and it is the basic force of development, however, developing countries have faced domestic and international instability in their markets and monetary and fiscal policies and these instabilities create a difficult condition for most of producers and exporters. Volatility in exchange market is one of the most important factor and vital concentrate for international trade especially agricultural commodity export. Because of this concern many studies have been conducted in this filed; (Aristotelous, 2001; Chen, 2009 and Sabuhoi and Piri, 2009 .Many of these studies has stated that exchange rate fluctuation has a negative impact on aggregated agricultural export; however, none of them has been focused on the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on exported value of important commodities in long run and short run. In recent years, exchange rate fluctuation has been raised about 6 percent since 2007 to 2010 and it seemed that this phenomenon has a negative impact on agricultural commodity export in Iran. To test this hypothesis exported value of three important commodity (date, orange and grape and exchange rate volatility since 1970 to 2013 have been used. Material and Methods: In order to examine the relation between real exchange rate volatility and export values of date, orange and grapes, first GARCH method has been used to draw out exchange rate volatility; then, Panel unite root test has been used to check the level of integration. Since real exchange rate is not heterogeneous for different cross sections Levi-Lin and Chow unit root test has been used for this variable and IPS test has been applied to export value. Pederoni co-integration test has been used to check the integration between these variables. Finally, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square methods have been used to estimate long run and short run

  10. Self-other rating agreement and leader-member exchange (LMX): a quasi-replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbuto, John E; Wilmot, Michael P; Singh, Matthew; Story, Joana S P

    2012-04-01

    Data from a sample of 83 elected community leaders and 391 direct-report staff (resulting in 333 useable leader-member dyads) were reanalyzed to test relations between self-other rating agreement of servant leadership and member-reported leader-member exchange (LMX). Polynomial regression analysis indicated that the self-other rating agreement model was not statistically significant. Instead, all of the variance in member-reported LMX was accounted for by the others' ratings component alone.

  11. Effects of respiratory rate and tidal volume on gas exchange in total liquid ventilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, Joseph L; Tredici, Stefano; Fujioka, Hideki; Komori, Eisaku; Grotberg, James B; Hirschl, Ronald B

    2009-01-01

    Using a rabbit model of total liquid ventilation (TLV), and in a corresponding theoretical model, we compared nine tidal volume-respiratory rate combinations to identify a ventilator strategy to maximize gas exchange, while avoiding choked flow, during TLV. Nine different ventilation strategies were tested in each animal (n = 12): low [LR = 2.5 breath/min (bpm)], medium (MR = 5 bpm), or high (HR = 7.5 bpm) respiratory rates were combined with a low (LV = 10 ml/kg), medium (MV = 15 ml/kg), or high (HV = 20 ml/kg) tidal volumes. Blood gases and partial pressures, perfluorocarbon gas content, and airway pressures were measured for each combination. Choked flow occurred in all high respiratory rate-high volume animals, 71% of high respiratory rate-medium volume (HRMV) animals, and 50% of medium respiratory rate-high volume (MRHV) animals but in no other combinations. Medium respiratory rate-medium volume (MRMV) resulted in the highest gas exchange of the combinations that did not induce choke. The HRMV and MRHV animals that did not choke had similar or higher gas exchange than MRMV. The theory predicted this behavior, along with spatial and temporal variations in alveolar gas partial pressures. Of the combinations that did not induce choked flow, MRMV provided the highest gas exchange. Alveolar gas transport is diffusion dominated and rapid during gas ventilation but is convection dominated and slow during TLV. Consequently, the usual alveolar gas equation is not applicable for TLV.

  12. The Empirical Research of the Impact of GDP and Exchange Rate on Foreign Exchange Reserve Scale in China-Based on Quantile Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Fang-Yuan

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on the relevant data from 1985 to 2010, this thesis uses a quantile regression model to make an empirical research about the effect of GDP and exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve. The findings show that: Both GDP and exchange rate have a remarkable influence on the size of foreign exchange reserve and the effect of exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve is higher than GDP at mean place and middle and lower quantile, smaller than GDP at higher quantile. At all the examined quantiles elastic coefficients of GDP and exchange rate are positive and among them, the elastic coefficients of GDP present us a reverse "V" model with the conditional distribution altering from low to high, that is, the impact of GDP on foreign exchange reserve shows an increasing trend when the latter is smaller, but begins to decrease when the latter reaches to a certain level; the elastic coefficients of exchange rate at lower quantiles are bigger than that of higher quantiles.

  13. Extensive and intensive margins and the choice of exchange rate regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Picard, Pierre M.; Hamano, Masashige

    2013-01-01

    This paper studies how the choice of fixed or flexible exchange rate regimes is affected by the existence of intensive and extensive margins. We study two models where firms enter during or before each period of production. We show how the the choice of those regimes depend on the level and the volatily of the intensive and extensive margins as well as on the congruence between consumers' preferences and the supply and diversity of products. We show that fixed exchange rate regimes are prefer...

  14. The contribution of the ECU to exchange-rate stability. A comment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. SARCINELLI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is a brief note criticising some essential elements of Jager and De Jong’s The private ECU’s potential impact on Global and European exchange-rate stability (1988. The author provides three points of criticism which undermine that article’s analysis. Firstly, the ECU ought to be considered in all its functions of an international reserve currency and not only as an investment currency. Secondly, the restrictiveness of the assumptions underlying the portfolio approach make the authors’ outcome useless in practice. Thirdly, the outcome of their calculations favours the hypothesis that the ECU creates exchange-rate stability.

  15. Exchange rate regimes, saving glut and the Feldstein Horioka puzzle: The East Asian experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaya-Bahçe, Seçil; Özmen, Erdal

    2008-04-01

    This paper investigates whether the recent experience of the emerging East Asian countries with current account surpluses is consistent with the “saving glut” hypothesis and the Feldstein and Horioka puzzle. The evidence suggests that the saving retention coefficients declined substantially in most of the countries after an endogenous break date coinciding with a major exchange rate regime change with the 1997-1998 crisis. Exchange rate flexibility appears to be enhancing financial integration. The results are consistent with an “investment slump” explanation rather than the “saving glut” postulation.

  16. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management: A Tilt towards Real Hedging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  17. The Impact of a Sovereign Default within the Euro Zone on the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Arne Breuer; Oliver Sauter

    2012-01-01

    We use quanto credit default swaps to analyse the impact of a credit event in the Eurozone on the Dollar-Euro exchange rate. In light of the European debt crisis, market participants are willing to pay more for protection against a sovereign credit event if it is denominated in US Dollars rather than in Euro, because they expect the Euro to depreciate in the wake of the credit event. We use this CDS price difference to calculate the implied exchange rate conditional on a credit event, i.e., t...

  18. On comparison of jump point detection for an exchange rate series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    IP; Wai-Cheung; WONG; Heung; XIE; Zhongjie; LUAN; Yihui

    2004-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the detection of jump points of a discontinuous function in the presence of a noise by the wavelet approach. A computing algorithm of our method is proposed and then applied to the daily exchange rate of US Dollar against Deutsche Mark. All the points detected by our method reflect very strong economic and political impacts. Other statistical methods to detect jump points have also been applied to the same exchange rate data. Our proposed method has produced more convincing empirical results than others.

  19. Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions: intervention purchases of the smaller currency, on average, reduce the spread while intervention sales, on average, increase the spread. We also show that intervention only affects the exchange rate spread when...... testable hypotheses regarding how unannounced intervention purchases and intervention sales influence the market asymmetrically. To test these hypotheses we estimate weighted least squares (WLS) time-series models of the intraday bid-ask spread. Our main result is that intervention purchases and sales both...

  20. Monetary and Fiscal Policies' Efficiency and the Determination of a Nominal Equilibrium Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Emil Stavrev

    2000-01-01

    The author of this paper constructs a continuous time macro-econometric model of the Czech economy. The model is assembled as a system of twelve non-linear differential equations. The model is put into use to determine the nominal equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna in a macro-economic framework. The paper also investigates the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in the presence of a fixed exchange-rate regime and massive capital inflows. The search for an equilibrium poin...

  1. EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION IN PAKISTAN: EVIDENCE BASED ON PURCHASING POWER PARITY THEORY

    OpenAIRE

    Khan, Muhammad Arshad; Qayyum, Abdul

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the empirical evidence on purchasing power parity (PPP) for Pak-rupee vis-à-vis US-dollar exchange rate using Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration and bound testing approach to cointegration (Pesaran et al., 2001) over the period 1982Q2-2005Q4. We find a considerable support for the existence of long-run PPP. Furthermore, the results of error-correction suggest that nominal exchange rate plays an important role in eliminating deviatio...

  2. Is It Possible to Replicate the Exchange Rate Volatility Behavior Using Dynamic Strategies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Henrique Barbedo

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The implied volatility is certainly an interesting indicator to help get a sense of the market, because it represents the amount of expected volatility the market is pricing. In over-the-counter exchange rate option, whose trading is volatility oriented, it is the most important variable. This work investigates whether information embedded in this implied volatility market are explained by other traded variables in the Brazilian market. The results show that there are sources of non-negotiable risk that influence this implied volatility. Therefore, exchange rate implied volatility can assist to understand the behavior of the derivatives indexed to dollar.

  3. Optimal Exchange Rate Policy:The Influence of Price-Setting and Asset Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Charles Engel

    2000-01-01

    This paper examines optimal exchange-rate policy in two-country sticky-price general equilibrium models in which households and firms optimize over an infinite horizon in an environment of uncertainty. The models are in the vein of the new open-economy macroeconomics' as exemplified by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995, 1998, 2000). The conditions under which fixed or floating exchange rates yield higher welfare depend on the exact nature of price stickiness and on the degree of risk-sharing opportun...

  4. Essays in applied macroeconomics: Asymmetric price adjustment, exchange rate and treatment effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Jingping

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth

  5. pH and urea dependence of amide hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates in the beta-trefoil protein hisactophilin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houliston, R Scott; Liu, Chengsong; Singh, Laila M R; Meiering, Elizabeth M

    2002-01-29

    Amide hydrogen/deuterium exchange rates were measured as a function of pH and urea for 37 slowly exchanging amides in the beta-trefoil protein hisactophilin. The rank order of exchange rates is generally maintained under different solution conditions, and trends in the pH and urea dependence of exchange rates are correlated with the rank order of exchange rates. The observed trends are consistent with the expected behavior for exchange of different amides via global and/or local unfolding. Analysis of the pH dependence of exchange in terms of rate constants for structural opening and closing reveals a wide range of rates in different parts of the hisactophilin structure. The slowest exchanging amides have the slowest opening and closing rates. Many of the slowest exchanging amides are located in trefoil 2, but there are also some slow exchanging amides in trefoils 1 and 3. Slow exchangers tend to be near the interface between the beta-barrel and the beta-hairpin triplet portions of this single-domain structure. The pattern of exchange behaviour in hisactophilin is similar to that observed previously in interleukin-1 beta, indicating that exchange properties may be conserved among beta-trefoil proteins. Comparisons of opening and closing rates in hisactophilin with rates obtained for other proteins reveal clear trends for opening rates; however, trends in closing rates are less apparent, perhaps due to inaccuracies in the values used for intrinsic exchange rates in the data fitting. On the basis of the pH and urea dependence of exchange rates and optical measurements of stability and folding, EX2 is the main exchange mechanism in hisactophilin, but there is also evidence for varying levels of EX1 exchange at low and high pH and high urea concentrations. Equilibrium intermediates in which subglobal portions of structure are cooperatively disrupted are not apparent from analysis of the urea dependence of exchange rates. There is, however, a strong correlation between

  6. Kinetic study of heavy metal ions removal by ion exchange in batch conical air spouted bed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. Zewail

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Spouted bed contactor is a hybrid of fixed and fluidized bed contactors, which retains the advantages of each with good hydrodynamic conditions. The aim of the present study is to investigate the performance of a batch conical air spouted vessel for heavy metal removal by strong cation exchange resins (AMBERJET 1200 Na. The effect of various parameters such as type of heavy metal ions (Ni+2 and Pb+2, contact time, superficial air velocity and initial heavy metal ion concentration on % heavy metal ion removal has been investigated. It has been found that under optimum conditions 98% and 99% removal of Ni+2 and Pb+2 were achieved respectively. Several kinetic models were used to test the experimental data and to examine the controlling mechanism of the sorption process. The present results of Ni+2 and Pb+2 well fit pseudo second order kinetic model with a high correlation coefficient. Both film diffusion and intra-particle diffusion contribute to the ion exchange process. The present study revealed that spouted bed vessel may provide an effective alternative for conducting ion exchange reactions.

  7. EXCHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boltz, J.C. (ed.)

    1992-09-01

    EXCHANGE is published monthly by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), a multidisciplinary facility operated for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The purpose of EXCHANGE is to inform computer users about about recent changes and innovations in both the mainframe and personal computer environments and how these changes can affect work being performed at DOE facilities.

  8. Economic fluctuations in a small economy with two productive sectors under a floating exchange rate regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Ustorgio Mora Mora

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a theoretical model of aggregate supply and demand in a small economy with two productive sectors, under a flexible exchange regime and imperfect capital mobility. Only one of the production sectors is assumed to produce an exportable commodity sold at world market prices, while the production of the other sector is assumed to supply the domestic market. This model helps to explain how the impact of both domestic (economic policy, productivity, etc. and foreign (changes in exchange terms shocks is spread. In every case studied, results show that real output increases consistently with those cases postulated by economic theory. Conversely, the effects on the price level, the exchange rate and the real interest rate are ambiguous. In terms of domestic shocks, fiscal or monetary policy may be seen as a way to stabilize or stimulate the economy but the costs involved raise the price level.

  9. Care Transitions in Long-term Care and Acute Care: Health Information Exchange and Readmission Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeaman, Brian; Ko, Kelly J; Alvarez del Castillo, Rodolfo

    2015-09-30

    Care transitions between settings are a well-known cause of medical errors. A key component of transition is information exchange, especially in long-term care (LTC). However, LTC is behind other settings in adoption of health information technologies (HIT). In this article, we provide some brief background information about care transitions in LTC and concerns related to technology. We describe a pilot project using HIT and secure messaging in LTC to facilitate electronic information exchange during care transitions. Five LTC facilities were included, all located within Oklahoma and serviced by the same regional health system. The study duration was 20 months. Both inpatient readmission and return emergency department (ED) visit rates were lower than baseline following implementation. We provide discussion of positive outcomes, lessons learned, and limitations. Finally, we offer implications for practice and research for implementation of HIT and information exchange across care settings that may contribute to reduction in readmission rates in acute care and ED settings.

  10. Evidence of interface exchange magnetism in self-assembled cobalt-fullerene nanocomposites exposed to air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavrentiev, V; Stupakov, A; Lavrentieva, I; Motylenko, M; Barchuk, M; Rafaja, D

    2017-03-24

    We report on the establishing of an exclusive magnetic effect in air-exposed CoxC60 nanocomposites (x > 2) created through self-assembling in the depositing mixture. In order to verify the influence of ambient air on the CoxC60 mixture film, we have studied in detail the film magnetization at rather low temperatures, which provides their ferromagnetic behavior. Tracing the possible exchange bias effect, we distinguished a clear vertical shift of the hysteresis loops recorded for the air-exposed CoxC60 films in the field cooling (FC) regime. The detected vertical shift of the FC loops is caused by an uncompensated magnetic moment M u induced by exchange coupling of the Co spins at the Co/CoO interface. This interface arises due to the oxidation of small Co clusters distributed in a C60-based matrix of self-assembled composite films, which occurs during air exposure. The core-shell structure of the Co/CoO magnetic clusters (about 2-3 nm in size) consisting of a ε-Co core and fcc-CoO shell was confirmed by means of transmission electron microscopy. Established interface magnetism testifies to a composite nanostructure in the CoxC60 mixture film with x > 2 and explains the influence of air exposure on the film structure. The discovered magnetic effect implies a new application potential for cobalt-fullerene composites in sensors and catalysis.

  11. Exchange flux of total gaseous mercury between air and natural water surfaces in summer season

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The exchanges of mercury between surface and air are of significance in the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in the environment, but there are still few reliable data on air/surface exchange in aquatic systems. Field measurement campaigns over seawater surface at Kristineberg Marine Research Station (KMRS) and over Hovg?rds?n River surface at Knobesholm in southwestern Sweden were conducted to measure mercury flux using a dynamic flux chamber technique coupled with automatic mercury vapor-phase analyzers. Both sites show net emissions during summer time. Mercury fluxes measured over both river and seawater surfaces exhibit a consistently diurnal pattern with maximum fluxes during the daytime period and minimum fluxes during the nighttime period. At freshwater site, mercury flux is strongly correlated with the intensity of net solar radiation, and negatively correlated with relative humidity. A typical exponential relationship between mercury flux and water temperature was observed at freshwater measurement site. At seawater site, a strong correlation between mercury flux and intensity of solar radiation was obtained. The driving force of mercury emission from water surface to air is the super-saturation of dissolved gaseous mercury in aqueous phase.

  12. Linking air-sea energy exchanges and European anchovy potential spawning ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grammauta, R.; Molteni, D.; Basilone, G.; Guisande, C.; Bonanno, A.; Aronica, S.; Giacalone, G.; Fontana, I.; Zora, M.; Patti, B.; Cuttitta, A.; Buscaino, G.; Sorgente, R.; Mazzola, S.

    2008-10-01

    The physical and chemical processes of the sea greatly affect the reproductive biology of fishes, mainly influencing both the numbers of spawned eggs and the survivorship of early stages up to the recruitment period. In the central Mediterranean, the European anchovy constitutes one of the most important fishery resource. Because of its short living nature and of its recruitment variability, associated to high environmental variability, this small pelagic species undergo high interannual fluctuation in the biomass levels. Despite several efforts were addressed to characterize fishes spawning habitat from the oceanographic point of view, very few studies analyze the air-sea exchanges effects. To characterize the spawning habitat of these resources a specific technique (quotient rule analysis) was applied on air-sea heat fluxes, wind stress, sea surface temperature and turbulence data, collected in three oceanographic surveys during the summer period of 2004, 2005 and 2006. The results showed the existence of preferred values in the examined physical variables, associated to anchovy spawning areas. Namely, for heat fluxes the values were around -40 W/m2, for wind stress 0.04-0.11 N/m2, for SST 23°C, and 300 - 500 m3s-3 for wind mixing. Despite the obtained results are preliminary, this is the first relevant analysis on the air-sea exchanges and their relationship with the fish biology of pelagic species.

  13. Organochlorine pesticides in soils of Mexico and the potential for soil-air exchange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, Fiona [Centre for Atmospheric Research Experiments, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, 6248 Eighth Line, Egbert, Ontario L01 1N0 (Canada); Department of Chemistry, University of Toronto Scarborough, 1265 Military Trail, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4 (Canada); Alegria, Henry A. [Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Geography, University of South Florida St. Petersburg, 140 7th Ave. S., St. Petersburg, FL 33701 (United States); Bidleman, Terry F., E-mail: terry.bidleman@ec.gc.c [Centre for Atmospheric Research Experiments, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, 6248 Eighth Line, Egbert, Ontario L01 1N0 (Canada)

    2010-03-15

    The spatial distribution of organochlorine pesticides (OCs) in soils and their potential for soil-air exchange was examined. The most prominent OCs were the DDTs (Geometric Mean, GM = 1.6 ng g{sup -1}), endosulfans (0.16 ng g{sup -1}), and toxaphenes (0.64 ng g{sup -1}). DDTs in soils of southern Mexico showed fresher signatures with higher F{sub DDTe} = p,p'-DDT/(p,p'-DDT + p,p'-DDE) and more racemic o,p'-DDT, while the signatures in the central and northern part of Mexico were more indicative of aged residues. Soil-air fugacity fractions showed that some soils are net recipients of DDTs from the atmosphere, while other soils are net sources. Toxaphene profiles in soils and air showed depletion of Parlar 39 and 42 which suggests that soil is the source to the atmosphere. Endosulfan was undergoing net deposition at most sites as it is a currently used pesticide. Other OCs showed wide variability in fugacity, suggesting a mix of net deposition and volatilization. - Chemical profiles of residues and soil-air fugacities are used to assess the potential of soil as a source of organochlorine pesticides to the air of Mexico.

  14. Monetary and exchange rate regimes changes: The cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores (former transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e. exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia.

  15. EXCHANGE RATE VS. INTEREST RATE: HOW MUCH DOES UIP WORK FOR ROMANIA? (STUDY CASE ON THE EUR/RON CURRENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haulica Dana

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper is part of a larger research that aims to analyze the deviation between the Real Exchange Rate and the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Romania (EUR/RON currency and to come up with conclusions regarding this deviation and with solutions to minimize it, if the case. Because this is the most important discussion after having the empirical results: what do emergent markets like Romania need to do to keep up with the EU trend? Which are the concessions they have to make in order to maintain a sustainable growth? Do these concessions include breaking the present equilibrium for a future BETTER? Starting with the most well-known methods to calculate the Equilibrium Exchange Rate, this article`s purpose is to create an accurate overview on the UIP model in Romania (the interest rate differential, to verify, using the latest data if the economic environment has brought any changes on the results of this model in the latest years. Is the UIP model a trustworthy equation to establish the Equilibrium Exchange Rate? In order to verify if the UIP model was more reliable in returning a value for the Equilibrium Exchange rate in the latest years on the Romanian market, this paper presents an empirical study containing recent compiled data from the last 10 years, analyzing the 2005 – 2014 period. The NEW in this article is that the used data is very fresh, currently, most probably the only study that verifies the UIP model in Romania for this specific period of time. Why is it useful? Why is it important? Because it doesn`t only bring a confirmation of weather the UIP works for Romania or not but comes up with hints and conclusions regarding the current economic situation of Romania. We can see what has been changed in the local market in the last ten years in terms of monetary policy and what has this change brought with it – if the results are those expected or not and also, what would be the direction for the next years – to most suitable

  16. An engineering procedure for air side performance evaluation of flat tube heat exchangers with louvered fins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonijevic, Dragi

    2013-01-01

    An accurate evaluation of possible air side heat transfer surface geometries is a prerequisite for optimal heat exchanger design. Aiming for practical engineering applicability a simplified and transparent analytical procedure for the assessment of louvered fin and flat tube heat exchanger geometries and the calculation of fin parameters that enable maximal performance for given boundary conditions has been developed. The proposed method comprises determining fins temperature profiles and effective heat transfer temperature difference, introduction of a relative heat transfer surface area, as well as the utilization of recent experimentally obtained heat transfer correlations confirmed for the observed range of boundary conditions. The proposed methodology is validated through comparison with experimental and numerical results of other authors.

  17. The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A mulitnominal panal analysis

    OpenAIRE

    von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyses the choices of exchange rate regimes in developing countries since 1980. Static and dynamic random-effects multinominal panel models are estimated using simulation-based techniques. Explanatory variables include OCA fundamentals, stabilization considerations, currency crises factors, and political and institutional features. The results reveal strong state dependence in regime choices.

  18. Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post Keynesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson H. Barbosa Filho

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.

  19. THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN AND HUNGARIAN STOCK MARKET INDICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulcsár Edina

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, when we are witnessing a serious macro-level changes, to deal with financial and economic indicators becomes more and more important in the economy, in particular to evaluate the changes of these indicators and especially their impact to the private sector. This paper aims to analyze in comparison for two countries, in what extent can explain the changes of the most important stock market indices with the fluctuations of those two countries national currency exchange rates in euro. To determinate the relationship between the macro indicators we’ve used traditional statistical methods, namely simple linear regression model and the Bayesian statistics. In case of both Romania and Hungary, the analyses show that there is a relationship between exchange rates and the changes of stock indices. If we compare the analysis results of the two countries, we can see that the relationship between the BET index and Lei/EUR exchange rate is much more stronger than between the BUX index and Ft/EUR exchange rate, in the latter case we can see a much weaker relationship.

  20. The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship of Exchange Rates: Parametric and Nonparametric Causality testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Diks, C.

    2007-01-01

    The present study investigates the long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among six currencies, namely EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD. The prime motivation for choosing these exchange rates comes from the fact that they are the most liquid and widely traded, covering

  1. MODELING EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Timofeev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with analysis of economic fundamental data and the issue of modeling of change in exchange rate EUR/USD. On the basis of statistical methods from the analysis was developed a model which helps to predict the range of currencies.

  2. The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Reshid, Abdulaziz Abrar; Tarp, Finn

    ‡ows Tanzania experienced positive investment and GDP growth from the late 1960s to 2007. But, until the mid-1980s, the impact of aid on growth was well below its potential as the large in‡ows of aid facilitated a serious overappreciation of the real exchange rate. In Ghana, declining aid in the 1970s...

  3. On European monetary integration and the persistence of real effective exchange rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson

    This paper deals with the possibility of changing persistence in European real effective exchange rates as initially analyzed by Gadea and Gracia (2009). By applying a CUSUM of squares-based test for constant versus changing persistence with desirable statistical properties, an OECD data set...

  4. A Classroom Experiment on Exchange Rate Determination with Purchasing Power Parity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, David T.; Rebelein, Robert P.; Schneider, Patricia H.; Simpson, Nicole B.; Fisher, Eric

    2009-01-01

    The authors developed a classroom experiment on exchange rate determination appropriate for undergraduate courses in macroeconomics and international economics. In the experiment, students represent citizens from different countries and need to obtain currency to purchase goods. By participating in an auction to buy currency, students gain a…

  5. Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post-Keynesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson H. Barbosa Filho

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.

  6. The Impact of Exchange Rate on Poland’s Trade Flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Twarowska

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of exchange rate on Poland’s foreign trade, especially on bilateral trade flows between Poland and the Euro area, which is its major trading partner. The research verifies the theoretical concepts that explain how the exchange rate influences the trade turnover. The empirical analysis was preceded by a theoretical basis of the problem. Data used in this study covers the period from 2004 to 2013. The theoretical and empirical analysis confirm that the exchange rate is a substantial factor influencing bilateral trade turnover between Poland and its main trading partners. The Polish zloty depreciation is the cause for the Polish exports growth. In the case of imports, the depreciation of the Polish zloty causes a decrease of the value of the Polish imports. Moreover, the exchange rate is an important adjustment mechanism, thanks to which the Polish economy was able to avoid a large decline in exports and GDP during the recent financial and economic crisis.

  7. Will ageing lead to a higher real exchange rate for the Netherlands?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ewijk, C.; Volkerink, M.

    2012-01-01

    Long term projections for the Netherlands indicate that demand for nontradables—e.g. health care services—will increase relative to supply due to population ageing. If this leads to higher future real exchanges rates this will erode the return of the savings currently made to prepare for ageing. Thi

  8. Will ageing lead to a higher real exchange rate for the Netherlands?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ewijk, C.; Volkerink, M.

    2011-01-01

    Long-term projections for the Netherlands indicate that demand for nontradables - e.g. health care services - will increase relative to supply due to population ageing. If this leads to higher future real exchanges rates this will erode the return of the savings currently made to prepare for ageing.

  9. Pricing model of credit default swap with stochastic foreign exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Yang

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A pricing model is established by using the structure approach and the backward Kolmogrov equation under the assumption of stochastic foreign exchange rate.The explicit solution of credit default swap is obtained for the dollar market.And a correlative financial analysis is given.

  10. The Effect of Exchange Rate Variability on U.S. Shareholder Wealth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müller, Aline; Verschoor, W.F.C.

    2009-01-01

    We examine the relationship between financial crisis exchange rate variability and equity return volatility for US multinationals. Empirical analysis of the major financial crises of the last decades reveals that stock return variability increases significantly in the aftermath of a crisis, even rel

  11. Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates with asymmetry in the Taiwan tourism industry. The analysis is based on two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH, in the volatility specification. Daily data fro

  12. Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates with asymmetry in the Taiwan tourism industry. The analysis is based on two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH, in the volatility specification. Daily data fro

  13. DETECTING REGIME SWITCHES IN THE EUR/RON EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Alina-Nicoleta

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available In the present study we develop and implement a short term exchange rate forecasting methodology using dynamic confidence intervals based on GARCH processes and we analyze whether this methodology can be used to model a regime switch in the volatility of

  14. Heterogeneity of agents and exchange rate dynamics: evidence from the EMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de; Verschoor, W.F.C.; Zwinkels, R.C.J.

    2010-01-01

    We develop and estimate a dynamic heterogeneous agent model for the EMS period. Our empirical results suggest that the existence of heterogeneous interacting agents is indeed a possible explanation for the dynamics of exchange rates during the EMS. We find strong evidence of heterogeneous boundedly

  15. Heterogeneity of Agents and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Evidence from the EMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de; Verschoor, W.F.C.; Zwinkels, R.C.J.

    2006-01-01

    We develop and estimate a dynamic heterogeneous agent model for the EMS period. Our empirical results suggest that the existence of heterogeneous interacting agents is indeed a possible explanation for the dynamics of exchange rates during the EMS; we find strong evidence in favor of our model using

  16. Effects of Exchange Rate Instability on Imports and Exports of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atif Kafayat

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The instability in exchange rate (appreciation and depreciation in home currency is an important factor indetermination of trade balance of a country. Fluctuating exchange rates impacts the decision making of investors and traders, it shatters their confidence which ultimately leads to the slowness of trade process. In this research paper the effect of exchange rate instability is measured on imports and exports of Pakistan. For this purpose Regression analysis is used and it is calculated that if instability is created due to depreciation in home currency (Pak rupee then it has positive impact on Pakistan‘s exports, while it has absolutely no effect on imports of Pakistan. Since Pak rupee has very limited appreciation during last 20 years so appreciation effect of home currency can not be calculated on Imports and exports of Pakistan. In theoretical prospective the devaluation of home currency should decrease the volume of imports, because it will cost more for Pakistan to import goods from other countries. But our empirical findings show that, this is not the case between exchange rate and imports of Pakistan. The imports of Pakistan grew even in large figure as the home currency depreciated against other currencies. So this shows that depreciation of home currency do not effect the imports in of Pakistan. Our findings through regression analysis show that by decrease in value of home currency imports of Pakistan increase. So depreciation in home currency has no effect on imports volume.

  17. The Proximity-Concentration Trade-Off under Goods Price and Exchange Rate Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yalcin, Erdal

    . The implementation of goods price uncertainty turns out to reduce the probability of entering a new market as an exporter. FDI becomes the optimal entry mode with increasing uncertainty. Additionally, the model is extended by implementing exchange rate uncertainty in a period of appreciation....

  18. Heart-rate monitoring by air pressure and causal analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuchiya, Naoki; Nakajima, Hiroshi; Hata, Yutaka

    2011-06-01

    Among lots of vital signals, heart-rate (HR) is an important index for diagnose human's health condition. For instance, HR provides an early stage of cardiac disease, autonomic nerve behavior, and so forth. However, currently, HR is measured only in medical checkups and clinical diagnosis during the rested state by using electrocardiograph (ECG). Thus, some serious cardiac events in daily life could be lost. Therefore, a continuous HR monitoring during 24 hours is desired. Considering the use in daily life, the monitoring should be noninvasive and low intrusive. Thus, in this paper, an HR monitoring in sleep by using air pressure sensors is proposed. The HR monitoring is realized by employing the causal analysis among air pressure and HR. The causality is described by employing fuzzy logic. According to the experiment on 7 males at age 22-25 (23 on average), the correlation coefficient against ECG is 0.73-0.97 (0.85 on average). In addition, the cause-effect structure for HR monitoring is arranged by employing causal decomposition, and the arranged causality is applied to HR monitoring in a setting posture. According to the additional experiment on 6 males, the correlation coefficient is 0.66-0.86 (0.76 on average). Therefore, the proposed method is suggested to have enough accuracy and robustness for some daily use cases.

  19. The political economy of exchange rate policy in Brazil: an empirical assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Bonomo

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether political economy factors contribute to explain the exchange rate policy in Brazil from 1964 to 1997. An analytical framework presents the tradeoff between the positive effect of a depreciated exchange rate on the balance of payments and its negative effect on inflation as driving force affecting exchange rate policy. The exchange rate policy resulting from this tradeoff depends on the political environment. We test our hypotheses by modeling the exchange rate disequilibrium level as a Markov switching model with time varying transition probabilities, and the influence of political economy variables on the transition probabilities is tested. The results support partially the predictions of our analytical framework. According to our statistical results there is an election cycle: the probability of having an overvalued exchange rate is higher in the months preceding elections, while the probability of having an undervalued exchange rate is higher in the months succeeding elections.Este artigo investiga se fatores de economia política ajudam a explicar a política cambial no Brasil entre 1964 e 1997. Uma estrutura analítica aponta o tradeoff entre o efeito positivo de uma desvalorização cambial sobre o balanço de pagamentos e o seu efeito negativo sobre a inflação como o principal fator na escolha da política cambial. A política cambial resultante desse tradeoff depende do ambiente político. Nossas hipóteses são testadas modelando o nível de desequilíbrio da taxa de câmbio como um modelo de Markov switching com probabilidades de transição variáveis no tempo, sendo testada a influência de variáveis de política econômica sobre a probabilidade de mudança de regime. Os resultados sustentam parcialmente as previsões de estrutura analítica. De acordo com os nossos resultados estatísticos, há um ciclo em torno das eleições: a probabilidade de a taxa de câmbio estar valorizada é maior nos

  20. Study of heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics of air heat exchanger using PCM for free cooling applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalaiselvam Sivakumar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Free cooling is the process of storing the cool energy available in the night ambient air and using it during the day. The heat exchanger used in this work is a modular type which is similar to the shell and tube heat exchanger. The shell side is filled with Phase Change Materials (PCM and air flow is through the tubes in the module. The modules of the heat exchanger are arranged one over other with air spacers in between each module. The air space provided in between the module in-creases the retention time of the air for better heat transfer. Transient Computational Fluid Dynamics modeling is carried out for single air passage in a modular heat exchanger. It shows that the PCM phase transition time in the module in which different shape of fins is adopted. The module with rectangular fins has 17.2 % reduction in solidification compared with the plain module. Then steady state numerical analysis is accomplished to the whole module having the fin of high heat transfer, so that pressure drop, flow and thermal characteristics across the module and the air spacers are deter-mined for various air inlet velocities of 0.4 to 1.6 m/s. To validate the computational results, experiments are carried out and the agreement was found to be good.

  1. Empirical Investigation of the Effects of the Fundamentals on the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines, by using several econometric techniques, the effects of foreign reserves and other fundamental variables on the exchange rate using the target zone theory, This paper uses monthly data for Chile from January 1979 to November 1997 The data used consists of foreign reserves, credit from the Central Bank, domestic reserves, imports, exports, claims on government, GDP, foreign liabilities, domestic and foreign interest rate. We find that the interest differential does not hav...

  2. France’s experience with monetary and exchange rate management: March 1973 to end-1981

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. ARGY

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The work encompasses a detailed review of the French experience with regards to monetary and exchange rate management. Monetary and credit targeting is dealt with and the instruments used to achieve proximate policy objectives are reviewed. Economic activity and inflation are then assessed before a simple econometric analysis of the Franc-Dollar rate is performed. Finally, France’s experience with policy mixes and internal-external balance is explored. 

  3. Protein internal flexibility and global stability: effect of urea on hydrogen exchange rates of bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, K S; Woodward, C

    1993-09-21

    The hydrogen isotope exchange kinetics of buried NH protons in bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor (BPTI) was measured in 8 M urea at 30 degrees C and pH 3.5. The data were analyzed by the two-process model in which slower exchanging protons utilize an unfolding mechanism and more rapidly exchanging protons exchange from the folded state. Urea accelerates the set of protons exchanging by the unfolding mechanism, all of which have approximately the same exchange rate constants in urea. For protons in this set, the ratio of exchange rate constants in the presence and absence of urea is used to estimate delta delta G(0-->8M urea) = 6.6 kcal/mol. For the set of protons exchanging from the folded state, 8 M urea either has no effect or slows exchange. Slowing of exchange by urea implies binding of urea to sites at or near the exchanging proton. Some buried protons exchanging from the folded state have diminished rates in 8 M urea, meaning that urea is accessible to these buried sites. Several unassigned side-chain NH's of arginine or lysine are highly protected from exchange by urea, suggesting that they are the location of urea binding sites on the surface of the molecule.

  4. Heart rate, heart rate variability and behaviour of horses during air transport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munsters, C C B M; de Gooijer, J-W; van den Broek, J; van Oldruitenborgh-Oosterbaan, M M Sloet

    2013-01-05

    Heart rate (HR), HR variability (HRV) and behaviour score (BS) of nine horses were evaluated during an eight-hour air transport between The Netherlands and New York. HR and HRV parameters were calculated every five minutes during the air transport. Compared with transit (40±3), mean HRs were higher during loading into the jet stall (67±21, Phorses showed differences in mean HR (P=0.005) and peak HR (Phorses. BS was highest during turbulence (3.2±0.4). However, behaviour did not always correspond with HR measurements: the least responsive horse had the highest HR. Loading into the jet stall caused the highest increase in HR and was considered the most stressful event. During transit, HR was generally comparable with resting rates. Previous studies have shown that loading and transporting by road caused more elevation in HR than during loading and transporting by air. HRV data were not found to be useful, and caution is needed when interpreting HRV data. Not every horse exhibited stress through visible (evasive) behaviour, and HR measurements may provide an additional tool to assess stress in horses.

  5. SirX: a selective inversion recovery experiment on X-nuclei for the determination of the exchange rate of slow chemical exchanges between two sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Xiulan; Bönisch, Friedrich

    2015-10-01

    Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy has proven to be powerful for the study of dynamic processes. A new pulse sequence, SirX, is designed to provide boundary conditions that simplify the McConnell equations. Both an initial rate approximation and a whole curve fitting to the time course of magnetization can be used to calculate the exchange rate. These methods were used to study the exchange kinetics of N,N-dimethylacetamide. As compared with the well-established exchange spectroscopy suitable to studies of slow exchange, SirX has the advantage of being less time consuming and capable of providing more reliable kinetic data. Furthermore, by setting the observation on X-nuclei with larger chemical shift dispersion as compared with an observation on (1)H resonance, SirX extends the upper limit of a reliable determination of exchange rates.

  6. Twin plane decoration of silver nanorods with palladium by galvanic exchange at a controlled rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sławiński, Grzegorz W; Ivanova, Olga S; Zamborini, Francis P

    2011-11-01

    Here we describe the galvanic exchange of surface-grown Ag nanorods (NRs) and nanowires (NWs) with PdCl(4)(2-) as a function of the PdCl(4)(2-) concentration. The morphology of the resulting AgPd alloy nanostructures depends on the galvanic exchange rate, which increases with increasing PdCl(4)(2-) concentration over a specific concentration range. When the concentration of PdCl(4)(2-) exceeds 7.5 × 10(-5) M (or ratio of moles of PdCl(4)(2-) in solution to moles of Ag on the surface > 542), rapid galvanic exchange results in Pd deposition over the entire Ag nanostructure in the early stages of exchange. When the concentration of PdCl(4)(2-) is in the range of 1.0 × 10(-5) to 5.0 × 10(-5) M (moles of PdCl(4)(2-) in solution to moles of Ag on the surface = 13-54), Pd deposition occurs preferentially at high energy twin plane defects in the form of well-spaced nanoparticles during the early stages of exchange. In later stages, the Pd deposits grow and coalescence into a rough shell, and etching of the Ag leads to a presumably hollow nanostructure. Composition analysis by linear sweep voltammetry as a function of time shows that the galvanic exchange rate is much slower than the diffusion-limited rate and, when correlated with UV-vis spectroscopy, shows that less than 10% Pd in the nanostructure completely dampens the Ag-localized surface plasmon band.

  7. EFFECTS OF THE APPLICATION OF TARGETING THE EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN MACEDONIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KRUME NIKOLOSKI

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The monetary system and monetary – credit policy in the Republic of Macedonia were built after the country gained independence from the previous federal community, when Macedonia faced problems such as: termination of many plants, increase in unemployment, increase in budget and foreign trade deficit as well as high inflation rate. The macroeconomic stability narrowly understood as reducing the inflation rate, was the first measure of the economic policy, undertaken along with the monetary independence of Macedonia. In a small and open economy, the exchange rate policy has particular importance in the control of the inflation rate and beyond: in the real economic trends. The strategy of targeting the denar exchange rate was accepted and applied with the expectation that it would act in that direction, hence the monetary policy was focused on maintaining fixed exchange rate against the euro. The determination of the country to join the European Union and to become a member of other international financial organizations is yet another reason for choosing this strategy.

  8. Has Exchange Rate System Reform Improved the Misalignment Degree of RMB Exchange Rate?%汇率制度改革改善了人民币汇率的失调程度吗?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周敏

    2012-01-01

    人民币汇率制度改革是否在一定程度上已经改善了人民币汇率的失调程度?为此,本文首先构建人民币实际均衡汇率模型,然后对人民币实际汇率的失调程度进行测算。研究结果显示,汇改之前我国采取的严格管理的浮动汇率制度对调整实际汇率使之趋近于均衡汇率有较大的约束,由此造成汇率一定程度的失调,而2005年及2010年的汇改使得人民币汇率的失调状况慢慢得到缓解,为人民币汇率调整到均衡汇率附近提供了一个良好的基础。%Has the reform of RMB exchange rate system, to a certain extent, improved the RMB exchange rate misalignment degree.9 To answer this question will contribute to evaluate if the current RMB exchange rate system reform is successful or not, and to rise the next reform suggestions. Therefore, this paper firstly builds up the RMB equilibrium exchange rate model, and then measures and calculates the RMB real exchange rate misalignment degree. The results show that, the strictly--managed floating exchange rate system has greatly constrained the adjustment of the real exchange rate to converge to the equilibrium exchange rate, and to some extent, it results in the exchange rate disorder. But in 2005 and 2010 the reform of RMB exchange rate has gradually eased the misalignment situation. This provides a good basis for RMB exchange rate adjustment reaching to near equilibrium rate.

  9. Kinetic bottlenecks to chemical exchange rates for deep-sea animals II: Carbon dioxide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Hofmann

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Increased ocean acidification from fossil fuel CO2 invasion, from temperature-driven changes in respiration, and from possible leakage from sub-seabed geologic CO2 disposal has aroused concern over the impacts of elevated CO2 concentrations on marine life. Discussion of these impacts has so far focused only on changes in the oceanic bulk fluid properties (ΔpH, Δ[∑CO2] etc. as the critical variable and with a major focus on carbonate shell dissolution. Here we describe the rate problem for animals that must export CO2 at about the same rate at which O2 is consumed. We analyze the basic properties controlling CO2 export within the diffusive boundary layer around marine animals in an ocean changing in temperature (T and CO2 concentration in order to compare the challenges posed by O2 uptake under stress with the equivalent problem of CO2 expulsion. The problem is more complex than that for a non-reactive gas since, as with gas exchange of CO2 at the air-sea interface, the influence of the ensemble of reactions within the CO2-HCO3-CO32– acid-base system needs to be considered. These reactions significantly facilitate CO2 efflux compared to O2 intake at equal temperature, pressure and flow rate under typical oceanic concentrations.The effect of these reactions can be described by an enhancement factor. For organisms, this means mechanically increasing flow over their surface to thin the boundary layer as is required to alleviate O2 stress seems not necessary to facilitate CO2 efflux. Nevertheless the elevated pCO2 cost most likely is non-zero. Regionally as with O2 the combination of T, P, and pH/pCO2 creates a zone of maximum CO2 stress at around

  10. Adaptive inverse control of air supply flow for proton exchange membrane fuel cell systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Chun-hua; ZHU Xin-jian; SUI Sheng; HU Wan-qi; HU Ming-ruo

    2009-01-01

    To prevent the oxygen starvation and improve the system output performance, an adaptive inverse control (AIC) strategy is developed to regulate the air supply flow of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) system in this paper.The PEMFC stack and the air supply system including a compressor and a supply manifold are modeled for the purpose of performance analysis and controller design. A recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) is utilized to identify the inverse model of the controlled system and generates a suitable control input during the abrupt step change of external disturbances.Compared with the PI controller, numerical simulations are performed to validate the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed AIC strategy.

  11. A macro-physics model of depreciation rate in economic exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmont Lobo, Rui F.; de Sousa, Miguel Rocha

    2014-02-01

    This article aims at a new approach for a known fundamental result: barter or trade increases economic value. It successfully bridges the gap between the theory of value and the exchange process attached to the transition from endowments to the equilibrium in the core and contract curve. First, we summarise the theory of value; in Section 2, we present the Edgeworth (1881) box and an axiomatic approach and in Section 3, we apply our pure exchange model. Finally (in Section 4), using our open econo-physics pure barter (EPB) model, we derive an improvement in value, which means that pure barter leads to a decline in depreciation rate.

  12. The Importance of Corporate Foreign Debt in Managing Exchange Rate Exposure in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2006-01-01

    This empirical study of the exchange rate exposure management of Danish non-financial firms listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange shows that debt denominated in foreign currency (foreign debt) is a very important alternative to the use of currency derivatives. The results show that the relative...... importance of foreign debt is positively related to (1) the extent of foreign subsidiaries, (2) the relative value of assets in place, and (3) the debt ratio. The pivotal role of time horizon is emphasised. These findings are important to firms in other countries with open economies....

  13. Interactions between heart rate variability and pulmonary gas exchange efficiency in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sin, Peter Y W; Webber, Matthew R; Galletly, Duncan C; Ainslie, Philip N; Brown, Stephen J; Willie, Chris K; Sasse, Alexander; Larsen, Peter D; Tzeng, Yu-Chieh

    2010-07-01

    The respiratory component of heart rate variability (respiratory sinus arrhythmia, RSA) has been associated with improved pulmonary gas exchange efficiency in humans via the apparent clustering and scattering of heart beats in time with the inspiratory and expiratory phases of alveolar ventilation, respectively. However, since human RSA causes only marginal redistribution of heart beats to inspiration, we tested the hypothesis that any association between RSA amplitude and pulmonary gas exchange efficiency may be indirect. In 11 patients with fixed-rate cardiac pacemakers and 10 healthy control subjects, we recorded R-R intervals, respiratory flow, end-tidal gas tension and the ventilatory equivalents for carbon dioxide and oxygen during 'fast' (0.25 Hz) and 'slow' paced breathing (0.10 Hz). Mean heart rate, mean arterial blood pressure, mean arterial pressure fluctuations, tidal volume, end-tidal CO(2), and were similar between pacemaker and control groups in both the fast and slow breathing conditions. Although pacemaker patients had no RSA and slow breathing was associated with a 2.5-fold RSA amplitude increase in control subjects (39 +/- 21 versus 97 +/- 45 ms, P exchange efficiency during variable-frequency paced breathing observed in prior human work is not contingent on RSA being present. Therefore, whether RSA serves an intrinsic physiological function in optimizing pulmonary gas exchange efficiency in humans requires further experimental validation.

  14. Exchange rate fluctuations and competitive comparative advantages in world trade in steaming coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Owen, A.D. [University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia). School of Economics

    1996-12-31

    Discusses the increase in seaborne steam coal exports from major exporters since 1980. The rate of growth in the 1990s has deceased, however. A major expansion of exports from Australia, Indonesia, China and Colombia since 1985 has satisfied the increase in growth at the expense of the USA, Poland and the FSU. The effects of exchange rate movements on changes in the relative importance of steam coal export nations since 1980 are analysed. The degree of this effect will be variable, and many other factors such as market strategies will play an important role in export marketing decisions. On the basis of relative levels of real exchange rates, China, Colombia, Indonesia and South Africa appear to have a competitive advantage over other exporters. 6 tabs.

  15. Numerical Analysis of Flow Distribution in a Sodium Chamber of a Finned-tube Sodium-to-Air Heat Exchanger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo, Youngchul; Son, Seokkwon; Kim, Hyungmo; Eoh, Jaehyuk; Jeong, Jiyoung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    DHR systems consist of two diverse heat removal loops such as passive and active DHR systems, and the heat load imposed on the primary sodium pool is safely rejected into the environment through different kinds of sodium-to-air heat exchangers, e.g. M-shape and helical-coil type air-coolers. The former is called as an FHX(Forced-draft sodium-to-air Heat Exchanger) and the latter is simply called as an AHX(natural-draft sodium-to-Air Heat Exchanger). In a general sodium-to-air heat exchanger design, convection resistance in a shell-side air flow path becomes dominant factor affecting the mechanism of conjugate heat transfer from the sodium flow inside the tube to the air path across the sodium tube wall. Hence verification of the flow and heat transfer characteristics is one of the most important tasks to demonstrate decay heat removal performance. To confirm a kind of ultimate heat sink heat exchanger, a medium-scale Sodium thermal-hydraulic Experiment Loop for Finned-tube sodium-to-Air Heat exchanger (here after called the SELFA) has been designed and is recently being constructed at KAERI site. The introduction of the flow baffle inside the upper sodium chamber of the model FHX unit in the SELFA facility is briefly proposed and discussed as well. The present study aims at introducing a flow baffle design inside the upper sodium chamber to make more equalized flowrates flowing into each heat transfer tube of the model FHX unit. In the cases without the flow baffle geometry, it was observed lager discrepancies in flowrates at the heat transfer tubes. However it was also found that those kinds of discrepancies could be definitely decreased at around 1/10 by employing a flow baffle.

  16. Persistent organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in air of the North Sea region and air-sea exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mai, Carolin; Theobald, Norbert; Hühnerfuss, Heinrich; Lammel, Gerhard

    2016-12-01

    Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were studied to determine occurrence, levels and spatial distribution in the marine atmosphere and surface seawater during cruises in the German Bight and the wider North Sea in spring and summer 2009-2010. In general, the concentrations found in air are similar to, or below, the levels at coastal or near-coastal sites in Europe. Hexachlorobenzene and α-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) were close to phase equilibrium, whereas net atmospheric deposition was observed for γ-HCH. The results suggest that declining trends of HCH in seawater have been continuing for γ-HCH but have somewhat levelled off for α-HCH. Dieldrin displayed a close to phase equilibrium in nearly all the sampling sites, except in the central southwestern part of the North Sea. Here atmospheric deposition dominates the air-sea exchange. This region, close to the English coast, showed remarkably increased surface seawater concentrations. This observation depended neither on riverine input nor on the elevated abundances of dieldrin in the air masses of central England. A net depositional flux of p,p'-DDE into the North Sea was indicated by both its abundance in the marine atmosphere and the changes in metabolite pattern observed in the surface water from the coast towards the open sea. The long-term trends show that the atmospheric concentrations of DDT and its metabolites are not declining. Riverine input is a major source of PCBs in the German Bight and the wider North Sea. Atmospheric deposition of the lower molecular weight PCBs (PCB28 and PCB52) was indicated as a major source for surface seawater pollution.

  17. Oxygen ionization rates at Mars and Venus - Relative contributions of impact ionization and charge exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, M. H. G.; Luhmann, J. G.; Nagy, A. F.; Spreiter, J. R.; Stahara, S. S.

    1993-01-01

    Oxygen ion production rates above the ionopauses of Venus and Mars are calculated for photoionization, charge exchange, and solar wind electron impact ionization processes. The latter two require the use of the Spreiter and Stahara (1980) gas dynamic model to estimate magnetosheath velocities, densities, and temperatures. The results indicate that impact ionization is the dominant mechanism for the production of O(+) ions at both Venus and Mars. This finding might explain both the high ion escape rates measured by Phobos 2 and the greater mass loading rate inferred for Venus from the bow shock positions.

  18. The common-trend and transitory dynamics in real exchange rate fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergman, Ulf Michael; Cheung, Yin-Wong; Lai, Kon S.

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the behaviour of both Common Trend (CT) and transitory components of Real Exchange Rate (RER) fluctuations under the current float. The CT component is in most cases found to be sizeable, albeit its relative importance can vary considerably across major currencies and its...... estimate can be sensitive to whether or not long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is imposed on the data. Further analysis suggests that both CT and transitory innovations are linked much more to interest rate changes than to productivity changes. Accordingly, it is interest rate, not productivity...

  19. Gas exchange and heart rate in the harbour porpoise, Phocoena phocoena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reed, J.Z.; Chambers, C.; Hunter, C.J.;

    2000-01-01

    a comparatively high minute rate of gas exchange. Oxygen consumption under these experimental conditions (247 +/- 13.8 ml O-2. min(-1)) was 1.9- fold higher than predicted by standard scaling relations. These data together with an estimate of the total oxygen stores predicted an aerobic dive limit of 5.4 min......The respiratory physiology, heart rates and metabolic rates of two captive juvenile male harbour porpoises (both 28 kg) were measured using a rapid-response respiratory gas analysis system in the laboratory. Breath-hold durations in the laboratory (12 +/- 0.3 s, mean +/- SEM) were shorter than...

  20. MODELING JUMPS IN RETURNS OF FINANCIAL ASSETS AS M4 PROCESSES: MEASURED EXCHANGE RATE EXPOSURE OF ASIAN EQUITY PORTFOLIO

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Djibrilla MOUSSA; Wei ZHANG

    2005-01-01

    Previous work on the exposure of equity markets to exchange rate risk, surprisingly, found stock returns were not significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. In this paper, we examine the relation between China, Japan and USA MSCI (Morgan & Stanley Capital International) daily equity index returns and SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) exchange rate returns of Chinese RMB and Japanese Yen in US dollar. We find a significant relation between Asian foreign equity stock returns and Chinese RMB and Japanese Yen exchange rate returns. This article incorporates foreign exchange values as partial determinants of Asian foreign equity market returns and suggests that currency risk is of hedging concern to investors with implications for portfolio management. We implement our result in portfolio's CaR determination under VaR constraints.