WorldWideScience

Sample records for air exchange rates

  1. Relationship between indoor radon concentrations and air exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The indoor concentration of radon and the air exchange rate were simultaneously measured in four empty rooms, made of brick and cement, which were located in different floors of dwelling houses in Taiyuan, Shanxi, China. SF6 tracer gas decay method was used to measure the air exchange rate. Indoor radon was collected with the dimembrane method. When the ventilation rate increased, the concentration of radon dropped rapidly. Regression analysis indicated that the indoor concentration of radon was equal to the outdoor level of radon when the air exchange rate was greater than 3-4. SF6 decay method was an effective and convenient method for measuring the air exchange rate. There was no marked difference in measurements obtained in different locations of a room. (N.K.)

  2. A Predictive Model for Vehicle Air Exchange Rates based on a Large, Representative Sample

    OpenAIRE

    Fruin, Scott A.; Hudda, Neelakshi; Sioutas, Constantinos; Delfino, Ralph J.

    2011-01-01

    The in-vehicle microenvironment is an important route of exposure to traffic-related pollutants, particularly ultrafine particles. However, significant particle losses can occur under conditions of low air exchange rate (AER) when windows are closed and air is recirculating. AERs are lower for newer vehicles and at lower speeds. Despite the importance of AER in affecting in-vehicle particle exposures, few studies have characterized AER and all have tested only a small number of cars. One reas...

  3. A Technical Basis for Employing Facility Ventilation Air Exchange Rates in the Decision to Downpost

    CERN Document Server

    Mantooth, D S

    2001-01-01

    Utilizing the ventilation exchange rate as a basis for the decision to downpost a location within a facility from an airborne radiation area (ARA) based on initial air count(DAC). Not used in the case of a confirmed or suspected contamination release.

  4. Experiments probing the influence of air exchange rates on secondary organic aerosols derived from indoor chemistry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weschler, Charles J.; Shields, H.C.

    2003-01-01

    of their particle size distributions. The experiments were performed in a manipulated office setting containing a constant source of d-limonene and an ozone generator that was remotely turned "on" or "off" at 6h intervals. The particle number concentrations were monitored using an optical particle counter...... in these studies, at an air exchange rate of 1.6h $+-1$/ particle number concentration in the 0.1-0.2$mu@m size-range peaked 1.2h after the ozone generator was switched on. In the ensuing 4.8h particle counts increased in successive size-ranges up to the 0.5-0.7$mu@m diameter range. At higher air exchange rates...

  5. Rating of an air-to-air heat exchanger in practice; Untersuchung eines Luft-Luft-Waermetauschers unter Praxisbedingungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roesmann, Peter; Buescher, Wolfgang [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Abt. ' ' Verfahrenstechnik der Tierischen Erzeugung' '

    2010-07-01

    Barn ventilation is often associated with heat loss. This can be regulated by using appropriate heating technology during the cold season. Air-to-air heat exchanger can be used to recover some of the heat from outlet air. Thereby the system transfers some of the heat from the outlet air to incoming fresh air by heat exchange surfaces. For objective review the DLG has multiple tested this technology on test bed. Long term investigations in practice have taken place rarely. The Institute of Agricultural Engineering, University of Bonn, therefore has tested an recuperative heat exchanger in long term study which was installed in a piglet house. (orig.)

  6. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  7. Ventilation of indoor formaldehyde and estimation of its emission and air exchange rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Kun; ZHAO Qing-liang; LI Wen-pu; LI Yu-hua

    2007-01-01

    Residents living in the cold areas such as Harbin generally experience a residence time of approximately 6 months in chilly winter without frequent natural ventilation. To find out the influence of a short period of ventilation on the indoor formaldehyde concentration inside a new building, an investigation was conducted for the instance of twice ventilation in a day through window opening. The results showed that the initial concentration of formaldehyde was 3.53 - 8.48 times as high as the concentration after 10 min ventilation. After closing the window, the indoor formaldehyde concentration increased with time and followed an exponential equation of C = C0exp( - b * t) + (a + Cw) [ 1 - exp( - b * t) ] with correlation coefficient (R2) of 0. 945 -0. 999, based on the statistical analysis of 14 groups of measurement data. The developed equation can be used to estimate the emission rate of indoor formaldehyde sources and the air exchange rate of the test room simultaneously.

  8. Measuring and modeling air exchange rates inside taxi cabs in Los Angeles, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Shi; Yu, Nu; Wang, Yueyan; Zhu, Yifang

    2015-12-01

    Air exchange rates (AERs) have a direct impact on traffic-related air pollutant (TRAP) levels inside vehicles. Taxi drivers are occupationally exposed to TRAP on a daily basis, yet there is limited measurement of AERs in taxi cabs. To fill this gap, AERs were quantified in 22 representative Los Angeles taxi cabs including 10 Prius, 5 Crown Victoria, 3 Camry, 3 Caravan, and 1 Uplander under realistic driving (RD) conditions. To further study the impacts of window position and ventilation settings on taxi AERs, additional tests were conducted on 14 taxis with windows closed (WC) and on the other 8 taxis with not only windows closed but also medium fan speed (WC-MFS) under outdoor air mode. Under RD conditions, the AERs in all 22 cabs had a mean of 63 h-1 with a median of 38 h-1. Similar AERs were observed under WC condition when compared to those measured under RD condition. Under WC-MFS condition, AERs were significantly increased in all taxi cabs, when compared with those measured under RD condition. A General Estimating Equation (GEE) model was developed and the modeling results showed that vehicle model was a significant factor in determining the AERs in taxi cabs under RD condition. Driving speed and car age were positively associated with AERs but not statistically significant. Overall, AERs measured in taxi cabs were much higher than typical AERs people usually encounter in indoor environments such as homes, offices, and even regular passenger vehicles.

  9. Measurement of air exchange rates in different indoor environments using continuous CO2 sensors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan YOU; Can Niu; Jian Zhou; Yating Liu; Zhipeng Bai; Jiefeng Zhang; Fei He; Nan Zhang

    2012-01-01

    A new air exchange rate (AER) monitoring method using continuous CO2 sensors was developed and validated through both laboratory experiments and field studies.Controlled laboratory simulation tests were conducted in a 1-m3 environmental chamber at different AERs (0.1-10.0 hr-1).AERs were determined using the decay method based on box model assumptions.Field tests were conducted in classrooms,dormitories,meeting rooms and apartments during 2-5 weekdays using CO2 sensors coupled with data loggers.Indoor temperature,relative humidity (RH),and CO2 concentrations were continuously monitored while outdoor parameters combined with on-site climate conditions were recorded.Statistical results indicated that good laboratory performance was achieved:duplicate precision was within 10%,and the measured AERs were 90%-120% of the real AERs.Average AERs were 1.22,1.37,1.10,1.91 and 0.73 hr-1 in dormitories,air-conditioned classrooms,classrooms with an air circulation cooling system,reading rooms,and meeting rooms,respectively.In an elderly particulate matter exposure study,all the homes had AER values ranging from 0.29 to 3.46 hr-1 in fall,and 0.12 to 1.39 hr-1 in winter with a median AER of 1.15.

  10. The importance of determining the air exchange rate in flats and buildings for calculations of the averted indoor inhalation doses arising from contaminated outdoor air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The indoor-outdoor air exchange rate is an important parameter when refining estimates of the averted inhaled doses to population in houses and buildings after an emergency event resulting in contamination of outdoor air with a radioactive material. The air exchange rates measured in 70 occupied houses and in 20 unoccupied houses using N2O as the tracer gas are presented, and the results of modelling the averted doses in the residential buildings for both gaseous and aerosol outdoor contaminants are demonstrated. (orig.)

  11. Development and Evaluation of a New Air Exchange Rate Algorithm for the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    between-home and between-city variability in residential pollutant infiltration. This is likely a result of differences in home ventilation, or air exchange rates (AER). The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model is a population exposure model that uses a pro...

  12. Time variations of 222Rn concentration and air exchange rates in a Hungarian cave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Hedvig Éva; Szabó, Zsuzsanna; Jordán, Gyozo; Szabó, Csaba; Horváth, Akos; Kiss, Attila

    2012-09-01

    A long-term radon concentration monitoring was carried out in the Pál-völgy cave, Budapest, Hungary, for 1.5 years. Our major goal was to determine the time dependence of the radon concentration in the cave to characterise the air exchange and define the most important environmental parameters that influence the radon concentration inside the cave. The radon concentration in the cave air was measured continuously by an AlphaGuard radon monitor, and meteorological parameters outside the cave were collected simultaneously. The air's radon concentration in the cave varied between 104 and 7776 Bq m(-3), the annual average value was 1884±85 Bq m(-3). The summer to winter radon concentration ratio was as high as 21.8. The outside air temperature showed the strongest correlation with the radon concentration in the cave, the correlation coefficient (R) was 0.76. PMID:22462600

  13. Gas exchange rates across the sediment-water andd air-water interfaces in south San Francisco Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radon 222 concentrations in the water and sedimentary columns and radon exchange rates across the sediment-water and air-water interfaces have been measured in a section of south San Francisco Bay. Two independent methods have been used to determine sediment-water exchange rates, and the annual averages of these methods agree within the uncertainity of the determinations, about 20%. The annual average of bethic fluxes from shoal areas is nearly a factor of 2 greater than fluxes from the channel areas. Fluxes from the shoal and channel areas exceed those expected from simple molecular diffusion by factors of 4 and 2, respectively, apparently due to macrofaunal irrigation. Values of the gas transfer coefficient for radon exchange across the air-water inteface were determined by constructing a radon mass balance for the water column and by direct measurement using floating chambers. The chamber method appears to yield results which are too high. Transfer coefficients computed using the mass balance method range from 0.4 m/day to 1.8 m/day, with a 6-year average of 1.0 m/day. Gas exchange is linearly dependent upon wind speed over a wind speed range of 3.2--6.4 m/s, but shows no dependence upon current velocity. Gas transfer coefficients predicted from an empirical relationship between gas exchange rates and wind speed observed in lakes and the oceans are within 30% of the coefficients determined from the radon mass balance and are considerably more accurate than coefficients predicted from theoretical gas exchange models

  14. Development and Evaluation of a New Air Exchange Rate Algorithm for the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model (ISES Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Previous exposure assessment panel studies have observed considerable seasonal, between-home and between-city variability in residential pollutant infiltration. This is likely a result of differences in home ventilation, or air exchange rates (AER). The Stochastic Human Exposure ...

  15. Exchange Rate Economics

    OpenAIRE

    John Williamson

    2008-01-01

    The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative “behavioral” model, which recognizes that the foreign exchange market is populated by both fundamentalists and chartists is presented. It is argued that the main importance of understanding the foreign exchange market for development s...

  16. Identifying Housing and Meteorological Conditions Influencing Residential Air Exchange Rates in the DEARS and RIOPA Studies: Development of Distributions for Human Exposure Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appropriate prediction of residential air exchange rate (AER) is important for estimating human exposures in the residential microenvironment, as AER drives the infiltration of outdoor-generated air pollutants indoors. AER differences among homes may result from a number of fact...

  17. Exchange Rate in Focus

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    China announced the reform of its decade-old RMB exchange rate regime last July, linking the RMB to a basket of currencies rather than the U.S. dollar alone, and allowing the RMB to appreciate 2 percent against the U.S. currency. Since then, different viewpoints on the new regime have been voiced. The People's Bank of China, the central bank, said in a statement in late March that it would further improve the system, broadening the foreign exchange market, increasing the flexibility of the RMB exchange r...

  18. Rating of an air-to-air tube-type heat exchanger in a piglet house; Energetische Untersuchung eines Luft-Luft-Rohrwaermetauschers in einem Ferkelaufzuchtstall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roesmann, Peter; Boge, Henrich; Buescher, Wolfgang [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Abt. ' ' Verfahrenstechnik in der Tierischen Erzeugung' '

    2011-07-01

    Due to the high temperature requirements of weaners, especially in the winter months, there is high energy consumption for rearing piglets. Furthermore the economic trend shows increasing energy costs. Thus, it is necessary, inter alia, to evaluate particular technologies to minimize the demand of energy consumption in order to reduce the costs. Air-to-air tube-type heat exchanger offers a convective transmission of heat from waste air to inlet air by using a specific airflow-control-system. Above all the heat energy can be decreased due to the warmed up inlet air which leads to an amplitude attenuation especially in the winter months. The Institute of Agricultural Engineering from the University of Bonn has examined the air-to-air tube-type heat exchanger of the Moeller GmbH company for the purpose of acquiring representative data of this regenerative technology. (orig.)

  19. Indoor air quality, air exchange rates, and radioactivity in new built temporary houses following the Great East Japan Earthquake in Minamisoma, Fukushima.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, N; Tokumura, M; Kazama, M; Yoshino, H; Ochiai, S; Mizukoshi, A

    2013-08-01

    This study measured air exchange rates, indoor concentrations of aldehydes and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and radioactivity levels at 19 temporary houses in different temporary housing estate constructed in Minamisoma City following the Great East Japan Earthquake. The 19 surveyed houses represented all of the companies assigned to construct temporary houses in that Minamisoma City. Data were collected shortly after construction and before occupation, from August 2011 to January 2012. Mean air exchange rates in the temporary houses were 0.28/h, with no variation according to housing types and construction date. Mean indoor concentrations of formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, toluene, ethylbenzene, m/p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, p-dichlorobenzene, tetradecane, and total VOCs (TVOCs) were 29.2, 72.7, 14.6, 6.35, 3.05, 1.81, 7.29, 14.3, 8.32, and 901 μg/m(3), respectively. The levels of acetaldehyde and TVOCs exceeded the indoor guideline (48 μg/m(3)) and interim target (400 μg/m(3)) in more than half of the 31 rooms tested. In addition to guideline chemicals, terpenes (α-pinene and d-limonene) and acetic esters (butyl acetate and ethyl acetate) were often detected in these houses. The indoor radiation levels measured by a Geiger-Müller tube (Mean: 0.22 μSv/h) were lower than those recorded outdoors (Mean: 0.42 μSv/h), although the shielding effect of the houses was less than for other types of buildings.

  20. Real Exchange Rate Targets, Nominal Exchange Rate Policies, and Inflation Real Exchange Rate Targets, Nominal Exchange Rate Policies, and Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Saúl Lizondo

    1991-03-01

    Full Text Available Real Exchange Rate Targets, Nominal Exchange Rate Policies, and Inflation Thh paper examines the implications of some nominal exchange rate policies aimed or attaining a given real exchange rate target. A policy rule that sets the rate of nominal depreciation as a function of the departures of the real exchange rate from its target level is unable to achieve the target. In contrast, a policv rule that sets the change in the rate of depreciation as a function of those departures may lead the economy to the target, under certain conditions. However, this policy could also lead the economy to a process of accelerating inflation.

  1. EXCHANGE RATE - REGIMES AND POLICIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novak Lučić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate of one currency is the price of the currency expressed in units of other currency. It is formed by the interaction of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. Given that the exchange rate has a direct impact on the competitiveness of a country in terms of features of its exports and imports, in its balance of payments, and indirectly the overall economic and social development, in addition to acting in market principles - supply and demand in the formation of the equilibrium exchange rate, exchange rate is subject to different, stronger or weaker, more or less, forms of intervention. In the search for the optimal exchange rate policy of the national currency, the monetary authorities are positioned between the two extremes - the complete abandonment of the exchange rate to the market laws of supply and demand, or fixing the exchange rate for any of the selected anchor currency.

  2. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Seyfettin ERDOĞAN; Karacan, Rıdvan; Alpaslan, Barış

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in the fact that a change in exchange rates has an impact on main economic indicators and therefore on macroeconomic performance. The aim of this paper is to study the implications of the relationship between exchange rates and changes in short-term interest rates on macroeconomic performance in the Turkish economy. The results of this study show that monetary policy shocks may affect financial sector and real sector through exchange rates.

  3. Exchange Rate Predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Yablonskyy, Karen

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to analyze the foreign exchange currency forecasting techniques. Moreover the central idea behind the topic is to develop the strategy of forecasting by choosing indicators and techniques to make own forecast on currency pair EUR/USD. This thesis work is a mixture of theory and practice analyses. The goal during the work on this project was to study different types of forecasting techniques and make own forecast, practice forecasting and trading on Forex platform, ba...

  4. Income and Exchange Rate Sensitivities of Cross-Border Freight Flows: Evidence from U.S.-Canada Exports and Imports by Truck, Rail, Air, and Pipeline

    OpenAIRE

    Chi, Junwook

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to improve understanding of the long-run impacts of the gross domestic product (GDP), real exchange rate, and the producer price index (PPI) on U.S.-Canada bilateral freight flows in a dynamic framework. Special attention is given to cross-border exports and imports by truck, rail, pipeline, and air. Using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) approach, the paper finds that the GDP of the importing country is a pronounced factor influencing U.S.- Canada cross-bord...

  5. Yuan Exchange Rate 'Properly Adjusted'

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

      The currency exchange rate was "properly adjusted" this year and takes into account effects on the country's neighbors and the world, Premier Wen Jiabao said at a regional meeting in Malaysia.……

  6. Exchange Rate Regimes and Location

    OpenAIRE

    Ricci, Luca Antonio

    1997-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes on location choices of firms and on the degree of specialization of countries. In a two-country two-differentiated-good monetary model, demand, supply, and monetary shocks arise after wages are set and prices are optimally chosen. The exchange rate performs then an adjustment role for firms located in the country relatively specialized in the good they produce, but it constitutes a factor of disturbance for the...

  7. Measurements of VOC/SVOC emission factors from burning incenses in an environmental test chamber: influence of temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoukian, A; Buiron, D; Temime-Roussel, B; Wortham, H; Quivet, E

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the influence of three environmental indoor parameters (i.e., temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rate) on the emission of 13 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) during incense burning. Experiments have been carried out using an environmental test chamber. Statistical results from a classical two-level full factorial design highlight the predominant effect of ventilation on emission factors. The higher the ventilation, the higher the emission factor. Moreover, thanks to these results, an estimation of the concentration range for the compounds under study can be calculated and allows a quick look of indoor pollution induced by incense combustion. Carcinogenic substances (i.e., benzene, benzo(a)pyrene, and formaldehyde) produced from the incense combustion would be predicted in typical living indoors conditions to reach instantaneous concentration levels close to or higher than air quality exposure threshold values.

  8. Evaluating China's Exchange Rate Regime

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Charlie Xiao Feng

    2008-01-01

    @@ In 1994 China established a de facto currency peg.1 The dollar-RMB exchange rate was fixed at 8.28.The People's Bank of China(PBC) allowed the rate a narrow band of around .01 to .02 percent in which it could shift daily.The exchange rate program did not become newsworthy until U.S.Treasury Secretary John Snow's visit in 2003.In fact as a study by Frankel and Wei (2007)showed, the RMB's forward was actually selling at a discount against the dollar prior to Secretary Snow's visit to China and his subsequent report, signaling that investors were anticipating RMB depreciation.

  9. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEŠA LOTRIČ DOLINAR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Using spectral analysis is very common in technical areas but rather unusual in economics and finance, where ARIMA and GARCH modeling are much more in use. To show that spectral analysis can be useful in determining hidden periodic components for high-frequency finance data as well, we use the example of foreign exchange rates

  10. Air duct heat exchanger; Luftkanal-Waermetauscher

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huber, H.; Helfenfinger, D. [Berner Fachhochschule, Hochschule fuer Technik und Architektur (HTA), Lucerne (Switzerland); Manz, H. [EMPA Eidgenoessischen Materialpruefungs- und Forschungsanstalt, Duebendorf (Switzerland)

    2000-07-01

    A mechanical building ventilation unit that brings together two functions - fluid transport and heat recovery - is presented. Aluminium fins in the supply air duct and in the adjacent extract air duct increase the heat flow from fluid to fluid. This unit is mainly intended to be used for residential ventilation and was investigated by means of experiments and simulations. Air flow rates, temperatures, air humidities and pressure differences were measured in an experimental set-up. Additionally, using a program for two-dimensional heat conduction analyses and a simple model, the efficiency of the heat recovery was calculated and compared with measurements. Afterwards, the influence of variations of the heat exchanger geometry was investigated by means of simulations. It was shown that by using this concept, it is possible to realise a ventilation unit in which heat is exchanged with high efficiency, e.g. temperature efficiency of 0.7 at a duct length of 6 m. At the same time, low pressure-drops occur, typically 20 Pa, which leads to low rates of electrical energy input. (author)

  11. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  12. Exchange Rate Choices of Microstates

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick A. Imam

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we first explain why most microstates (countries with less than 2 million inhabitants) have gained independence only in the last 30 years. Despite the higher costs and risks microstates face, their ability to better accommodate local preferences combined with a more integrated world economy probably explains why the benefits of independence have risen. We explain why microstates at independence have chosen either dollarization, currency board arrangements, or fixed exchange rate...

  13. The Exchange Rate Exposure Puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Bartram, Söhnke M.; Bodnar, Gordon

    2005-01-01

    Based on basic financial models and reports in the business press, exchange rate movements are generally believed to affect the value of nonfinancial firms. In contrast, the empirical research on nonfinancial firms typically produces fewer significant exposures estimates than researchers ex-pect, independent of the sample studied and the methodology used, giving rise to a situation known as “the exposure puzzle”. This paper provides a survey of the existing research on the exposure phenomenon...

  14. Model test of air-exchange efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klobut, K.

    1987-01-01

    The mixing-air flow pattern was studied. Three air flows were tested using the tracer gas technique and decay method. The indices of air exchange efficiency were calculated, namely: overall air-exchange efficiency and room-air mean age for the whole room; local ventilation indices and local mean ages of air at 10 points distributed throughout the room. Experiments were carried out in both isothermal and nonisothermal conditions. Based on the theory of similarity requirements, a reduced-scale model, geometrically similar to the laboratory test room, was built. Air flows and temperature differences were calculated for the model tests in order to make them comparable with the full scale, and the tests were repeated. The objective of the study was to determine the relation between the air-exchange efficiency indices obtained in the model and on the full scale.

  15. The RMB Exchange Rate Keeps Increasing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ In July 2005, the People's Bank of China officially announced that it would adopt a manageable floating exchange rate, adjusted according to a basket of currencies based on market supply and demand. On that day, the exchange rate of the RMB to the U.S. Dollar increased by 21 percent, and since then the RMB exchange rate has gradually turned to a more flexible exchange rate convention, rather than focusing on the Dollar only.

  16. Net carbon dioxide exchange rates and predicted growth patterns in Alstroemeria Jacqueline' at varying irradiances, carbon dioxide concentrations, and air temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leonardos, E.D.; Tsujita, M.J.; Grodzinski, B. (Univ. of Guelph, Ontario (Canada). Dept. of Horticultural Science)

    1994-11-01

    The influence of irradiance, CO[sub 2] concentration, and air temperature on leaf and whole-plant net C exchange rate (NCER) of Alstroemeria Jacqueline' was studied. At ambient CO[sub 2], leaf net photosynthesis was maximum at irradiances above 600 [mu]mol[center dot]m[sup [minus]2][center dot]s[sup [minus]1] photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), while whole-plant NCER required 1,200 [mu]mol[center dot]m[sup [minus]2][center dot]s[sup [minus]1] PAR to be saturated. Leaf and whole-plant NCERs were doubled under CO[sub 2] enrichment of 1,500 to 2,000 [mu]l CO[sub 2]/liter. Leaf and whole-plant NCERs declined as temperature increased from 20 to 35 C. Whereas the optimum temperature range for leaf net photosynthesis was 17 to 23 C, whole-plant NCER, even at high light and high CO[sub 2], declined above 12 C. Dark respiration of leaves and whole plants increased with a Q[sub 10] of [approx] 2 at 15 to 35 C. In an analysis of day effects, irradiance, CO[sub 2] concentration, and temperature contributed 58%, 23%, and 14%, respectively, to the total variation in NCER explained by a second-order polynomial model (R[sup 2] = 0.85). Interactions among the factors accounted for 4% of the variation in day C assimilation. The potential whole-plant growth rates during varying greenhouse day and night temperature regimes were predicted for short- and long-day scenarios. The data are discussed with the view of designing experiments to test the importance of C gain in supporting flowering and high yield during routine harvest of Alstroemeria plants under commercial greenhouse conditions.

  17. The determinants of exchange rate in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel BENAZIC

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The dilemma for every country with an independent monetary policy is which kind of exchange rate arrangement should be applied. Through the exchange rate policy, countries can influence their economies, i.e. price stability and export competiveness. Croatia is a new EU member state, it has its own monetary policy and currency but it is on the way to euro introduction. Regarding the experiences from the beginning of the 1990s when Croatia was faced with serious monetary instabilities and hyperinflation, the goal of Croatian National Bank (CNB is to ensure price stability and one way to do so is through exchange rate policy. Croatia, as a small and open economy, has applied a managed floating exchange rate regime. The exchange rate is determined primarily by the foreign exchange supply and demand on the foreign exchange market, with occasional market interventions by the CNB. Therefore, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, policymakers must be able to recognize how changes in these factors affect changes in the exchange rate. This research aims to find a relationship among the main sources of foreign currency inflow and outflow and the level of exchange rate in Croatia. The analysis is carried out by using the bounds testing (ARDL approach for co-integration. The results indicate the existence of a stable co-integration relationship between the observed variables, whereby an increase in the majority of variables leads to an exchange rate appreciation.

  18. Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Azerbaijan

    OpenAIRE

    Hasanov, Fakhri; Huseynov, Fariz

    2009-01-01

    By using quarterly data from 2001-2007 and applying various approaches, we estimate real equilibrium exchange rate misalignment for Azerbaijani Manat (AZN) and find that AZN is slightly overvalued. Purchasing power parity approach does not explain the equilibrium exchange rate. However using behavioral and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches, we find that the relative productivity, terms of trade, trade openness, net foreign assets, government expenditures and oil prices are the ma...

  19. DETERMINANTS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN ETHIOPIA

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. P.Nandeeswara Rao; Tassew Dufera Tolcha

    2016-01-01

    Real exchange rate has direct effects on trade particularly on international trade and has indirect effects on productions and employments, so it is crucial to understand the factors which determine its variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants using yearly Ethiopian time series data covering the period 1971 to 2010. It begins with a review of literatures on Exchan...

  20. Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Tunisian Exchange Rate Market

    OpenAIRE

    Dhekra Azouzi; Rohit Vishal Kumar; Chaker Aloui

    2011-01-01

    Based on a linear framework, this paper aims to examine the relationship between future spot rates and forward exchange rates using USD-TND data, thanks to traditional regressions and to the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in order to check if the Unbiasedness Forward Exchange Rate (UFER) hypothesis is satisfied and if the forward premiums contain valuable information useful to forecast the subsequent path that will be taken by spot exchange rates. The empirical analysis reveals that the...

  1. Commodity Price Volatility Across Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    John T. Cuddington; Hong Liang

    1998-01-01

    This paper documents a new "stylized fact" regarding commodity prices using alternative datasets covering the period from 1880 to 1996: The volatility of real commodity prices, defined as nominal commodity prices deflated by the manufacturing unit value index, is higher under flexible-exchange rate regimes than fixed-exchange rate regimes. Furthermore, changes in exchange regime are associated with changes in the persistence of commodity price shocks. Implications of this finding for open-eco...

  2. Exchange Rate Expectations Redux and Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Pierdzioch, Christian

    2002-01-01

    This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium optimizing two-country model to analyze how the formation of exchange rate expectations shapes the effects of monetary policy shocks in open economies. The model implies that the short-run output effects of permanent monetary policy shocks diminish if 'noise traders' in the foreign exchange market form regressive exchange rate expectations. If the influence of these noise traders is strong enough, a permanent expansionary monetary policy shock can...

  3. Notes on Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Clements, Kenneth W.; Meher Manzur

    2001-01-01

    Brief analytical notes on the interactions between exchange rates and commodity prices. Gold and iron-ore are used as examples of the issues raised. The paper also presents a stylised model to determine the effects of exchange-rate changes on the internal and external prices of commodities. Also included is a simple geometric exposition of the issues.

  4. The Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure of Nations

    OpenAIRE

    Entorf, Horst; Möbert, Jochen; Sonderhof, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984), we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current trade balance variables of corresponding economies.

  5. Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Masson, Paul; RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

    2003-01-01

    This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

  6. Exchange rate regimes and monetary arrangements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ribnikar

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available There is a close relationship between a country’s exchange rate regime and monetary arrangement and if we are to examine monetary arrangements then exchange rate regimes must first be analysed. Within the conventional and most widely used classification of exchange rate regimes into rigid and flexible or into polar regimes (hard peg and float on one side, and intermediate regimes on the other there, is a much greater variety among intermediate regimes. A more precise and, as will be seen, more useful classification of exchange rate regimes is the first topic of the paper. The second topic is how exchange rate regimes influence or determine monetary arrangements and monetary policy or monetary policy regimes: monetary autonomy versus monetary nonautonomy and discretion in monetary policy versus commitment in monetary policy. Both topics are important for countries on their path to the EU and the euro area

  7. Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Theptida Sopraseuth

    2003-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate regimes on international business cycles and focuses on the consequences of membership to the European Monetary System. The volatility puzzle uncovered by Baxter and Stockman [1989, Journal of Monetary Economics 23, 377–401] after assessing the consequences of the Bretton Woods system turns out to be a robust stylized fact: real and nominal exchange rates display a higher volatility under floating rates while the variability of macroeconom...

  8. Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Flexibility Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    2001-01-01

    Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents to that view suggest that countries move to corner solutions--hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on whether countries that claim they are floating are indeed doing so. We find that countries that say th...

  9. The mirage of floating exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    2000-01-01

    This note summarizes some of the highlights of my longer paper with Guillermo Calvo”Fear of Floating.” Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents to that view suggest that countries move to corner solutions--hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on...

  10. Exchange Rate Regimes, Location, and Specialization

    OpenAIRE

    Luca Antonio Ricci

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of fixed versus flexible exchange rates on firms' location choices and on countries' specialization patterns. In a two-country, twodifferentiated-goods monetary model, uncertainty arises after wages are set and prices are optimally chosen. The paper shows that countries are more specialized under flexible than fixed rates, which indicates that the pattern of specialization is not uniquely defined by trade models but also depends on the exchange rate regime....

  11. The foreign exchange rate rate exposure of nations

    OpenAIRE

    Entorf, Horst; Moebert, Jochen; Sonderhof, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984) we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current trade balance variables of corresponding economies.

  12. RMB Exchange Rate Reform: Past and Future

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Zhen

    2009-01-01

    @@ With the deepening of China's financial reform, economic development and the enforcement of market roles, the RMB exchange rate needs to become more flexible and become a more sensitive reflection of the changes in market supply and demand. Under such circumstances, on July 21, the People's Bank of China announced that the previous system where China's RMB was pegged to the U.S. Dollar would be changed to include a basket of foreign currencies, shifting China's exchange rate system into a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand.

  13. Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Cashin; Luis Felipe Céspedes;; Ratna Sahay

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines whether the real exchange rates of commodity-exporting countries and the real prices of their commodity exports move together over time. Using IMF data on the world prices of 44 commodities and national commodity export shares, we construct new monthly indices of national commodity export prices for 58 commodity-exporting countries over 1980-2002. Evidence of a longrun relationship between national real exchange rate and real commodity prices is found for about onethird of...

  14. Stock Prices, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Dor, Eric; Durré, Alain

    1999-01-01

    This paper attempts to model the relationship between monetary policy and financial asset prices. We develop an aggregative model under forward-looking rational expectations to analyse the optimal monetary policy response to stock prices and exchange rates shocks. We first demonstrate that a model ignoring the impact of equity prices and exchange rates on aggregate demand leads to an overestimation of the optimal policy response to standard shocks. Second, we clearly point out that a correct ...

  15. Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Jon Faust; Rogers, John H.

    1999-01-01

    While much empirical work has addressed the role of monetary policy shocks in exchange rate behavior, conclusions have been clouded by the lack of plausible identifying assumptions. We apply a recently developed inference procedure allowing us to relax dubious identifying assumptions. This work overturns some earlier results and strengthens others: i) Contrary to earlier findings of "delayed overshooting," the peak exchange rate effect of policy shocks may come nearly immediately after the sh...

  16. China's monetary policy and the exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Mehrotra, Aaron; Sanchez-Fung, Jose

    2010-01-01

    The paper models monetary policy in China using a hybrid McCallum–Taylor empirical reaction function. The feedback rule allows for reactions to inflation and output gaps, and to developments in a trade-weighted exchange rate gap measure. The investigation finds that monetary policy in China has, on average, accommodated inflationary developments. But exchange rate shocks do not significantly affect monetary policy behaviour, and there is no evidence of a structural break in the estimated reac...

  17. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Lithuania

    OpenAIRE

    Dubauskas, Gediminas

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes Lithuanian monetary and exchange rate developments. Experiences of the other two Baltic states Estonia and Latvia have been analysed as well. New monetary and financial institutions introduced in all Baltic states faced several problems. One was how to maintain the credibility for new fixed exchange rates in order to preserve positive effect on the economy due to the sharp fall of the inflation. The currency board system has been proposed as a reasonable solution. Central ...

  18. Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows

    OpenAIRE

    Harald Hau; Helene Rey

    2002-01-01

    We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete forex risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for U.S. global mutual funds, has three important implications: 1) exchange rates are almost as volatile as equity prices when the forex liquidity supply is not infinitely price elastic; 2) higher returns in the home equity market relative to the foreign equity market are associated with a home currency...

  19. Exchange Rates, Equity Prices and Capital Flows

    OpenAIRE

    Hau, Harald; Rey, Hélène

    2003-01-01

    We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete forex risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for US global mutual funds, has three important implications: 1) exchange rates are almost as volatile as equity prices when the forex liquidity supply is not infinitely price elastic; 2) higher returns in the home equity market relative to the foreign equity market are associated with a home currency d...

  20. Exchange rates, equity returns and capital flows

    OpenAIRE

    Helene Rey; Harald Hau

    2004-01-01

    We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete forex risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for U.S. global mutual funds, has three important implications: 1) exchange rates are almost as volatile as equity prices when the forex liquidity supply is not infinitely price elastic; 2) higher returns in the home equity market relative to the foreign equity market are associated with a home currency...

  1. Immigrants' Labor Supply and Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Arash Nekoei

    2013-01-01

    Are an immigrant's decisions affected in real time by her home country's economy? I examine this question by exploiting exchange rate variations as exogenous price shocks to immigrants' budget constraints. I find that in response to a 10 percent dollar appreciation, an immigrant decreases her earnings by 0.92 percent, mainly by reducing hours worked. The exchange rate effect is greater for recent immigrants, married immigrants with absent spouses, Mexicans close to the border, and immigrants ...

  2. Exchange Rate and Political Risks, Again

    OpenAIRE

    Clare, Gregory; Ira N. Gang

    2009-01-01

    We examine the effects of exchange rate and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) for multinationals. Our strategy is to examine FDI by U.S. firms at two levels: in all industries and on the subset of only firms in manufacturing industries. When investing in developed economies the firms appear to take past and present variation in exchange rates into consideration. When investing in less developed nations the past and present variation does not appear to weigh as heavily as the ...

  3. Sticky prices and sectoral real exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick J. Kehoe; Virgiliu Midrigan

    2007-01-01

    The classic explanation for the persistence and volatility of real exchange rates is that they are the result of nominal shocks in an economy with sticky goods prices. A key implication of this explanation is that if goods have differing degrees of price stickiness then relatively more sticky goods tend to have relatively more persistent and volatile good-level real exchange rates. Using panel data, we find only modest support for these key implications. The predictions of the theory for pers...

  4. The Exchange-Rate Question in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Giavazzi, Francesco

    1989-01-01

    This paper reviews the arguments for and against monetary unification in Europe, taking into account the recent shift in emphasis in discussions of exchange rate regimes. It discusses the merits of irrevocably fixed versus flexible exchange rates in the light of the literature on international strategic interactions, where inefficiencies arise from countries' incentives to run beggar-thy-neighbor policies. The long run level of inflation is viewed as determined by the 'credibility' of the mon...

  5. THERMAL ANALYSIS OF EARTH AIR HEAT EXCHANGER USING CFD

    OpenAIRE

    Vaibhav Madane; Meeta Vedpathak

    2015-01-01

    This project focuses on Earth Air Heat Exchanger which is reducing energy consumption in a building. The air is passing through the buried tubes and heat exchange takes place between air and surrounding soil. This equipment helps to reduce energy consumption of an air conditioning unit. This project analyses the thermal performance of earth air heat exchanger by using computational fluid dynamics modeling. The model is validated against experimental observations and investigations...

  6. A fundamentally new approach to air-cooled heat exchangers.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koplow, Jeffrey P.

    2010-01-01

    We describe breakthrough results obtained in a feasibility study of a fundamentally new architecture for air-cooled heat exchangers. A longstanding but largely unrealized opportunity in energy efficiency concerns the performance of air-cooled heat exchangers used in air conditioners, heat pumps, and refrigeration equipment. In the case of residential air conditioners, for example, the typical performance of the air cooled heat exchangers used for condensers and evaporators is at best marginal from the standpoint the of achieving maximum the possible coefficient of performance (COP). If by some means it were possible to reduce the thermal resistance of these heat exchangers to a negligible level, a typical energy savings of order 30% could be immediately realized. It has long been known that a several-fold increase in heat exchanger size, in conjunction with the use of much higher volumetric flow rates, provides a straight-forward path to this goal but is not practical from the standpoint of real world applications. The tension in the market place between the need for energy efficiency and logistical considerations such as equipment size, cost and operating noise has resulted in a compromise that is far from ideal. This is the reason that a typical residential air conditioner exhibits significant sensitivity to reductions in fan speed and/or fouling of the heat exchanger surface. The prevailing wisdom is that little can be done to improve this situation; the 'fan-plus-finned-heat-sink' heat exchanger architecture used throughout the energy sector represents an extremely mature technology for which there is little opportunity for further optimization. But the fact remains that conventional fan-plus-finned-heat-sink technology simply doesn't work that well. Their primary physical limitation to performance (i.e. low thermal resistance) is the boundary layer of motionless air that adheres to and envelops all surfaces of the heat exchanger. Within this

  7. Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Tunisian Exchange Rate Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhekra Azouzi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on a linear framework, this paper aims to examine the relationship between future spot rates and forward exchange rates using USD-TND data, thanks to traditional regressions and to the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM in order to check if the Unbiasedness Forward Exchange Rate (UFER hypothesis is satisfied and if the forward premiums contain valuable information useful to forecast the subsequent path that will be taken by spot exchange rates. The empirical analysis reveals that the UFER hypothesis is rejected and that the forward premium is a crucial tool, at short term, to detect the future movements of spot exchange rates. A potential enrichment of such a paper will rely on a non linearframework.

  8. DOES CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AFFECT EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hisao Kumamoto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of the degree of currency substitution on nominal exchange rate volatility in seven countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Argentina, and Peru. We use the Threshold ARCH model to consider the ratchet effect of currency substitution and sample periods in the 2000s, during which time the economies of the sample countries stabilized, while the U.S. dollar and euro depreciated against other major currencies following the recent global financial crisis. The presented empirical analyses show that the degree of currency substitution has significant positive effects on the conditional variance of the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate in most sample countries. Moreover, a shock to the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate has asymmetric effects on the conditional variance, depending on the sign. One possible explanation for these differential effects is the existence of the ratchet effect of currency substitution.

  9. Do time-averaged, whole-building, effective volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions depend on the air exchange rate? A statistical analysis of trends for 46 VOCs in U.S. offices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rackes, A; Waring, M S

    2016-08-01

    We used existing data to develop distributions of time-averaged air exchange rates (AER), whole-building 'effective' emission rates of volatile organic compounds (VOC), and other variables for use in Monte Carlo analyses of U.S. offices. With these, we explored whether long-term VOC emission rates were related to the AER over the sector, as has been observed in the short term for some VOCs in single buildings. We fit and compared two statistical models to the data. In the independent emissions model (IEM), emissions were unaffected by other variables, while in the dependent emissions model (DEM), emissions responded to the AER via coupling through a conceptual boundary layer between the air and a lumped emission source. For 20 of 46 VOCs, the DEM was preferable to the IEM and emission rates, though variable, were higher in buildings with higher AERs. Most oxygenated VOCs and some alkanes were well fit by the DEM, while nearly all aromatics and halocarbons were independent. Trends by vapor pressure suggested multiple mechanisms could be involved. The factors of temperature, relative humidity, and building age were almost never associated with effective emission rates. Our findings suggest that effective emissions in real commercial buildings will be difficult to predict from deterministic experiments or models. PMID:26010216

  10. The role of bubbles during air-sea gas exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emerson, Steven; Bushinsky, Seth

    2016-06-01

    The potential for using the air-sea exchange rate of oxygen as a tracer for net community biological production in the ocean is greatly enhanced by recent accuracy improvements for in situ measurements of oxygen on unmanned platforms. A limiting factor for determining the exchange process is evaluating the air-sea flux contributed by bubble processes produced by breaking waves, particularly during winter months under high winds. Highly accurate measurements of noble gases (Ne, Ar & Kr) and nitrogen, N2, in seawater are tracers of the importance of bubble process in the surface mixed layer. We use measured distributions of these gases in the ventilated thermocline of the North Pacific and an annual time series of N2 in the surface ocean of the NE Subarctic Pacific to evaluate four different air-water exchange models chosen to represent the range of model interpretation of bubble processes. We find that models must have an explicit bubble mechanism to reproduce concentrations of insoluble atmospheric gases, but there are periods when they all depart from observations. The recent model of Liang et al. (2013) stems from a highly resolved model of bubble plumes and categorizes bubble mechanisms into those that are small enough to collapse and larger ones that exchange gases before they resurface, both of which are necessary to explain the data.

  11. Heat Recovery Ventilation for Housing: Air-to-Air Heat Exchangers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, Robert J.; Miller, Barbara

    The air-to-air heat exchanger (a fan powered ventilation device that recovers heat from stale outgoing air) is explained in this six-part publication. Topic areas addressed are: (1) the nature of air-to-air heat exchangers and how they work; (2) choosing and sizing the system; (3) installation, control, and maintenance of the system; (4) heat…

  12. Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Vinhas de Souza

    2002-01-01

    textabstractHere the author empirically estimates if the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author fol

  13. Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burstein, Ariel; Eichenbaum, Martin; Rebelo, Sergio

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we argue that the primary force behind the large drop in real exchange rates that occurs after large devaluations is the slow adjustment in the prices of nontradable goods and services. Our empirical analysis uses data from five large devaluation episodes: Argentina (2002), Brazil (1999), Korea (1997), Mexico (1994), and Thailand…

  14. Deforestation and the Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Arcand, Jean-Louis; Guillaumont, Patrick; Guillaumont Jeanneney, Sylviane

    2011-01-01

    Deforestation is a phenomenon that has largely been concentrated in the developing world. We construct a theoretical model of deforestation that focuses on the factors affecting the incentives to transform forested land into agricultural land. We show that: (i) lower discount rates (associated with higher income levels), stronger institutions, and increases in the relative price of timber decrease deforestation; (ii) depreciations in the real exchange rate increase deforestation in developing...

  15. Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanke, Michael; Poulsen, Rolf; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Since its announcement made on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level.We use a compound option pricing approach...... to estimate the latent exchange rate that would prevail in the absence of the SNB’s interventions, together with the market’s confidence in the SNB’s commitment to this policy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc....

  16. Forecasting Exchange Rates with Mixed Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Maria Badea

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Gaining accuracy in exchange rate forecasting applications provides true benefits for financial activities. Supported today by the advancements in computing power, machine learning techniques provide good alternatives to traditional time series estimation methods. Very approached in time series forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs which offer robust results and allow a flexible data manipulation. When integrating both, the “white-box” feature of conventional methods and the complexity of machine learning techniques, forecasting models perform even better in terms of generated errors. In this study, input variables (independent variables are selected using an ARIMA technique and are further employed in differently configured multilayered feed-forward neural networks using Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS optimization algorithm to perform predictions on EUR/RON and CHF/RON exchange rates. Results in terms of mean squared error highlight good results when using mixed models.

  17. Fractal Analysis of Forward Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Greguš

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we work with nonparametric methods in modeling and analyzing thefinancial times series. We use the concept of fractal dimension for measuring thecomplexity of time series of observed financial data. The aim of this paper is to distinguishbetween the randomness and determinism of the financial information. We will compare thefractal analysis of the selected forward exchange rates. Fractal analysis has beenintroduced into financial time series by Mandelbrot and Peters. Due to the financial crisisthis theory has gained new momentum. Fractal analysis indicates that conventionaleconometric methods are inadequate for analyzing financial time series. Adequate analysisof the financial time series allows us to predict precisely the future values and risksconnected with portfolios that are influenced. We test for fractional dynamic behavior in a1-month forward exchange rate USD into GBP and Gold Price against USD.

  18. From monetary to exchange rate targets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.J. ARTIS

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper was presented at the Fourth International Seminar on European Economic and Monetary Union, held in Copenhagen in March of 1981. The author takes up the theoretical issues in the framework of both static and dynamic analysis. He argues, on the basis of the criterion of minimising the variance of prices around their target value, that an exchange-rate target outperforms a monetary target under most conceivable types of disturbances in a static analysis. 

  19. New Chapter in Exchange Rate Reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Introduction of new trading model has multiple significance China's central bank invited public bidding among 10 major domestic commercial banks to carry out one-year-long currency swap transactions last November. This move, according to Zuo Xiaolei, Chief Economist of China Galaxy Securities Co. Ltd., not only enables financial derivatives to become an operational instrument for implementing monetary policy, but also represents another action of the marketization of the exchange rate regime after an ear...

  20. Forecasting Exchange Rates with Commodity Convenience Yields

    OpenAIRE

    Beutler, Toni

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates whether commodity convenience yields - the yields that accrue to the holders of physical commodities - can predict the exchange rate of commodity-exporters' currencies. Predictability is a consequence of the fact that i) convenience yields are useful predictors for commodity prices and ii) commodity currencies have a strong relationship with commodity prices. The empirical evidence indicates that there is a significant relationship between aggregate measures of conveni...

  1. Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Sucarrat, Genaro; Rime, Dagfinn

    2007-01-01

    We study the role played by geographic and bank-size heterogeneity in the relation between exchange rate variability and market activity. We find some support for the hypothesis that increases in short-term global interbank market activity, which can be interpreted as due to variation in information arrival, increase variability. However, our results do not suggest that local short-term activity increases variability. With respect to long-term market activity, which can be interpreted as a me...

  2. Operating experiences with rotary air-to-air heat exchangers: hospitals, schools, nursing homes, swimming pools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pearson, R.J.

    1976-01-01

    Systems utilizing rotary air-to-air heat exchangers are discussed. Basic considerations of use (fresh air requirements, system configurations, cost considerations), typical system layout/design considerations, and operating observations by engineers, staff and maintenance personnel are described.

  3. Design and simulation of heat exchangers using Aspen HYSYS, and Aspen exchanger design and rating for paddy drying application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janaun, J.; Kamin, N. H.; Wong, K. H.; Tham, H. J.; Kong, V. V.; Farajpourlar, M.

    2016-06-01

    Air heating unit is one of the most important parts in paddy drying to ensure the efficiency of a drying process. In addition, an optimized air heating unit does not only promise a good paddy quality, but also save more for the operating cost. This study determined the suitable and best specifications heating unit to heat air for paddy drying in the LAMB dryer. In this study, Aspen HYSYS v7.3 was used to obtain the minimum flow rate of hot water needed. The resulting data obtained from Aspen HYSYS v7.3 were used in Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR) to generate heat exchanger design and costs. The designs include shell and tubes and plate heat exchanger. The heat exchanger was designed in order to produce various drying temperatures of 40, 50, 60 and 70°C of air with different flow rate, 300, 2500 and 5000 LPM. The optimum condition for the heat exchanger were found to be plate heat exchanger with 0.6 mm plate thickness, 198.75 mm plate width, 554.8 mm plate length and 11 numbers of plates operating at 5000 LPM air flow rate.

  4. Global exchange rate configurations: Do oil shocks matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Buetzer, Sascha; Habib, Maurizio Michael; Stracca, Livio

    2012-01-01

    Do oil shocks matter for exchange rates? This paper addresses this question based on data on real and nominal exchange rates as well as an exchange market pressure index for 44 advanced and emerging countries. We identify three structural shocks (oil supply, global demand, and oil specific demand) which raise the real oil price and analyse their effect on individual exchange rates. Contrary to the predictions of the theoretical literature, we find no evidence that exchange rates of oil export...

  5. The Behavior of Foreign Exchange Rates – Comment†

    OpenAIRE

    Jacky C. So

    1986-01-01

    The distributors of foreign exchange rates are important for model building and empirical analysis. For example, many studies have examined foreign exchange market efficiency and currency portfolio management under the assumption that foreign exchange rates are normally distributed. The statistical tests in these studies, and thus their conclusions, may not be reliable if the foreign exchange rates follow non-normal distributions. Realizing the importance of the distribution of exchange rates...

  6. Stochastic Simulation of the Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria ALDEA

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The rational expectations paradigm, that dominates macroeconomicsfails to take into account the complexity of the information, which is so vast that the individual brain cannot understand the full of it. The agents are boundedly rational,so they use simple forecasting rules that do not incorporate all available information, but they are willing to learn and will switch to other rules if it turns out that these rules are more profitable than the rule they have been using. Such trial and error learning strategies create the dynamics in the foreign exchange market, with two types of equilibria, a fundamental and a non-fundamental equilibrium to which the exchange rate is attracted.

  7. Escape Clauses and Targeting of the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Nominal Exchange Rate Pegging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo González M.

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available

    We consider an economy under a fixed exchange rate system, but with bounds (a minimum level or a band on the real exchange rate. The international price of the tradable good is characterized by the continuous arrival of shocks that change its level. In a model with microfoundations, we investigate the effects of targeting the real exchange rate through nominal exchange rate changes that preclude the real exchange from trespassing the imposed bounds.

    A stochastic general equilibrium model with two goods and fixed non-tradable goods price level is developed. We analyze the cases in which a lower bound or a band on the real exchange rate is introduced. The general conclusion is that when bounds are established, then welfare effects can be expected, which are generated at the expense of the levels of consumption that go in the opposite direction than what the policy intended. This short-run effect is present even in the case the targeting policy is never exercised. This result is similar to the one we find in the target zones literature, in the sense that just the existence of this tolerance band changes the behavior of the economy.

    An interesting result is that, in the case in which home goods prices are fixed, the imposition of the band on the real exchange rate does not change its behavior within the band. However, this result is not true of other real variables in the economy. In other words, although the targeted variable within the band behaves identically to the case in which there are no bounds, the rest of the real variables in the economy behave differently, even if the targeted variable remains within the band and the escape clause is not triggered.

  8. Exchange rate volatility and international trade: The option approach

    OpenAIRE

    Franke, Günter

    1986-01-01

    Usually it is argued that an increase in exchange rate volatility reduces the volume of international trade since trading firms are risk averse. This paper shows for risk neutral firms that the expected international trade volume in standardized commodities grows with exchange rate volatility. The firms adjust their trade volume to the exchange rate level. The more favorable the exchange rate is, the higher is the export volume. If the rate drops below some level, exports are stopped. Thus in...

  9. NATREX AND DETERMINATION OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE OF RMB

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Holger van Eden; LIU Bin; Gerbert Romyn; YANG Xiaoguang

    2001-01-01

    ]n this paper, we analyze the movements of the real exchange rate in China.Our empirical evidence shows that the purchasing power parity does not hold in the long run, and the real exchange rate is non-stationary. The decomposition of the movements of the real exchange rate also indicates that real shocks result in permanent changes in the real exchange rate whereas nominal shocks just result in temporary changes.Based on these facts,we apply NATREX approach to analyze the detrmination of real exchange rate in China.The NATREX model successfully explains the evolution of the real exchange rate in China:The real exchange rate in the long run is determined by the real fundamentals including the productivity at home and abroad,and the domestic time preference.In the long run,a rise of the domestic productivity significantly appreciates the real exchange rate whereas a rise of the foreign productivity significantly appreciates the real exchange rate whereas a rise of the fireign productivity or a rise of the domestic time preference significantly depreciates the real exchange rate.We also find that the estimated NATREX rate converges to the steady-state exchange rate in the long run.Although there are short-run fluctuations around the NATREX rate,the real exchange rate will converge to the NATREX rate over time.

  10. Global changes and the air-sea exchange of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Present and potential future changes to the global environment have important implications for marine pollution and for the air-sea exchange of both anthropogenic and natural substances. This report addresses three issues related to the potential impact of global change on the air-sea exchange of chemicals: Global change and the air-sea transfer of the nutrients nitrogen and iron. Global change and the air-sea exchange of gases. Oceanic responses to radiative and oxidative changes in the atmosphere. The deposition of atmospheric anthropogenic nitrogen has probably increased biological productivity in coastal regions along many continental margins. Atmospheric deposition of new nitrogen may also have increased productivity somewhat in mid-ocean regions. The projected future increases of nitrogen oxide emissions from Asia, Africa and South America will provide significant increases in the rate of deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the central North Pacific, the equatorial Atlantic, and the equatorial and central South Indian Oceans. Atmospheric iron may be an important nutrient in certain open regions. Future changes will likely occur if there are changing patterns of aridity and wind speed as a result of climate change. The most important future effects on surface ocean pCO2 will likely be caused by changes in ocean circulation. The pH of the ocean would decrease by ∼0.3 units for a doubling of pCO2, reducing the capacity of the ocean to take up CO2. There is increasing evidence that dimethyl sulfide from the ocean is a source of cloud condensation nuclei and thus a factor controlling cloud albedo. By 2060 in the southern hemisphere reduction in total column stratospheric ozone from recent levels could reach 2 to 5% in the tropics, 10% at mid latitudes, and over 20% at 60 deg C. S. In this same time frame increases in ground-level effective UV-B radiation could reach 5%, 26% and 66%, at low, mid, and high latitudes in the southern hemisphere. Changes in

  11. On exchange rate misalignments in the Eurozone's peripheral countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grochová, Ladislava; Plecitá, Klára

    2013-10-01

    In this paper we model equilibrium exchange rates for the Eurozone's countries on the basis of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach, which assumes, that equilibrium exchange rates are in the long run affected by economic fundamentals. To assess the degree of exchange rate misalignment for the Eurozone's peripheral countries - Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain - the gap between the actual and the modelled equilibrium exchange rate value is calculated. Our results show that Spain, Portugal and Ireland had their real exchange rates in equilibrium when they joined the Eurozone; however their real exchange rates have been persistently overvalued since the beginning of the 2000s. Greece, on the other hand, has experienced diminishing undervaluation at the beginning of its membership in the Eurozone and since 2009 has exhibited an overvalued real exchange rate.

  12. Air pollution and human fertility rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.; Basagaña, Xavier; Dadvand, Payam; Martinez, David; Cirach, Marta; Beelen, Rob; Jacquemin, Bénédicte

    2014-01-01

    Background: Some reports have suggested effects of air pollution on semen quality and success rates of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in humans and lower fertility rates in mice. However, no studies have evaluated the impact of air pollution on human fertility rates. Aims: We assessed the association

  13. Macroeconomic News 'Surprises' and the Rand/Dollar Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Johannes Fedderke; Philippe Flamand

    2005-01-01

    Economic theory in the context of floating exchange rates has focussed on underlying medium and long term direction of exchange rate movements. Daily volatility is less well understood. One theory that offers an explanation for short term exchange rate movements is that of the efficient market hypothesis or EMH. Its application to the forex market allows exchange rate movements to be understood as the reaction of traders to relevant news. In an efficient market traders react to news and speci...

  14. Exchange Flow Rate Measurement Technique in Density Different Gases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motoo Fumizawa

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Buoyancy-driven exchange flows of helium-air through inclined a narrow tube was investigated. Exchange flows may occur following the opening of a window for ventilation, as well as when a pipe ruptures in a high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The experiment in this paper was carried out in a test chamber filled with helium and the flow was visualized using the smoke wire method. A high-speed camera recorded the flow behavior. The image of the flow was transferred to digital data, and the slow flow velocity, i.e. micro flow rate was measured by PIV software. Numerical simulation was carried out by the code of moving particle method with Lagrange method.

  15. Threshold stationary real exchange rates: a nonlinear, multivariate approach

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Shively

    2003-01-01

    Purchasing power parity implies that real exchange rates are stationary. However, the finding of nonstationary real exchange rates has been difficult to dismiss. Using a nonlinear, three-regime structural bivariate threshold model, this paper finds evidence of threshold stationary real exchange rates which is consistent with purchasing power parity adjusted for market frictions such as transaction costs.

  16. Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Mishkin, Frederic S.

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses what recent economic research tells us about exchange rate pass-through and what this suggests for the control of monetary policy. It first focuses on exchange rate pass-through from a macroeconomic perspective and then examines the microeconomic evidence. In light of this evidence, it then discusses the implications of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy.

  17. Air-water oxygen exchange in a large whitewater river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Robert O.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Rosi-Marshall, Emma J.

    2012-01-01

    Air-water gas exchange governs fluxes of gas into and out of aquatic ecosystems. Knowing this flux is necessary to calculate gas budgets (i.e., O2) to estimate whole-ecosystem metabolism and basin-scale carbon budgets. Empirical data on rates of gas exchange for streams, estuaries, and oceans are readily available. However, there are few data from large rivers and no data from whitewater rapids. We measured gas transfer velocity in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon, as decline in O2 saturation deficit, 7 times in a 28-km segment spanning 7 rapids. The O2 saturation deficit exists because of hypolimnetic discharge from Glen Canyon Dam, located 25 km upriver from Lees Ferry. Gas transfer velocity (k600) increased with slope of the immediate reach. k600 was -1 in flat reaches, while k600 for the steepest rapid ranged 3600-7700 cm h-1, an extremely high value of k600. Using the rate of gas exchange per unit length of water surface elevation (Kdrop, m-1), segment-integrated k600 varied between 74 and 101 cm h-1. Using Kdrop we scaled k600 to the remainder of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. At the scale corresponding to the segment length where 80% of the O2 exchanged with the atmosphere (mean length = 26.1 km), k600 varied 4.5-fold between 56 and 272 cm h-1 with a mean of 113 cm h-1. Gas transfer velocity for the Colorado River was higher than those from other aquatic ecosystems because of large rapids. Our approach of scaling k600 based on Kdrop allows comparing gas transfer velocity across rivers with spatially heterogeneous morphology.

  18. Energy Recovery with Air-to-air Membrane Energy Exchanger for Ventilation in Cold Climates

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Peng

    2016-01-01

    Air-to-air membrane energy exchangers (MEEs) are attracting increasing attention as one of the most important novel trends in heat and energy recovery exchangers for heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. In MEEs, simultaneous heat and moisture transfer through the selectively permeable membrane reduces the energy consumed for heating, cooling, dehumidifying or humidifying the ventilation air. In cold climates, the moisture transfer from the warm and humid...

  19. Reassessing exchange rate overshooting in a monetary framework

    OpenAIRE

    Soumya Suvra Bhadury; Taniya Ghosh

    2015-01-01

    Money overtime has been deemphasized from most of the macroeconometric models of exchange rate making interest rate 'alone' the monetary policy instrument. One such model is Bjornland's (1999) Journal of International Economics and Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all. The model sets out to establish the empirical validity of Dornbusch exchange rate overshooting hypothesis for four small open economies. It does so though not with exact precision. When ...

  20. Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Evidence from developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Hoffmann, Mathias

    2005-01-01

    This paper investigates the formalisation that in a small open economy flexible exchange rates act as a 'shock absorber' and mitigate the effects of external shocks more effectively. An intertemporal small open economy model with nominal rigidities, in which real shocks generate internal imbalances under fixed and flexible exchange rates, is laid out. The role of world interest rate and world output shocks in driving output, trade imbalances and real exchange rate fluctuations is investigated...

  1. Exchange Rate Volatility and Bank Performance in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    OWOEYE, Taiwo; OGUNMAKIN, Adeduro Adesola

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the impact of unstable exchange rate on bank performance in Nigeria using two proxies for bank performance, namely loan loss to total advances ratio and capital deposit ratio. Government expenditure, interest rate, real gross domestic product were added to exchange rate as independent variables. The two models specified show that the impact of exchange rate on bank performance is sensitive to the type of proxy used for bank performance. Loan loss to total advance ratio...

  2. World currency exchange rate cross-correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Droå¼dż, S.; Górski, A. Z.; Kwapień, J.

    2007-08-01

    World currency network constitutes one of the most complex structures that is associated with the contemporary civilization. On a way towards quantifying its characteristics we study the cross correlations in changes of the daily foreign exchange rates within the basket of 60 currencies in the period December 1998 May 2005. Such a dynamics turns out to predominantly involve one outstanding eigenvalue of the correlation matrix. The magnitude of this eigenvalue depends however crucially on which currency is used as a base currency for the remaining ones. Most prominent it looks from the perspective of a peripheral currency. This largest eigenvalue is seen to systematically decrease and thus the structure of correlations becomes more heterogeneous, when more significant currencies are used as reference. An extreme case in this later respect is the USD in the period considered. Besides providing further insight into subtle nature of complexity, these observations point to a formal procedure that in general can be used for practical purposes of measuring the relative currencies significance on various time horizons.

  3. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... ows bring us closer to the transaction level where rm decisions are actually made. I nd that the utilization of monthly data does add new information about the average level of pricing-to-market, and the di¤erences between long-run pricing-to-market and short-run pricing-to-market. Furthermore, I nd...... industry di¤erences in pricing-to-market in terms of the magnitude (zero to complete pricing-to-market) and the timing (when do rms changes prices), and that pricing-to-market is stronger on high-income markets. As discussed in detail in the paper, all results are in-line with predictions of several...

  4. Implicit Bands in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Ledesma-Rodríguez, Francisco; Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel; Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge; Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon

    2006-01-01

    Abstract This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the Yen/Dollar exchange rate. To that end, we apply a sequential procedure that considers both the dynamics of exchange rates and central bank interventions to data covering the period from 1971 to 2003. Our results suggest that implicit bands existed in two subperiods: April-December 1980 and March-October 1987, the latter coinciding with the Louvre Accord. Furthermore, the study of the credibility of such...

  5. Productive Government Spending, Welfare and Exchange Rate Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Juha Tervala

    2008-01-01

    This study analyses the consequences of productive government spending on the international transmission of fiscal policy. A standard result in the new open economy macroeconomics literature is that a fiscal shock depreciates the exchange rate. I demonstrate that the response of the exchange rate depends on the productivity of government spending. If productivity is sufficiently high, a fiscal shock appreciates the exchange rate. It is also shown that the introduction of productive government...

  6. Assessing Asian Equilibrium Exchange Rates as Policy Instruments

    OpenAIRE

    MASUJIMA Yuki

    2015-01-01

    This paper attempts to estimate the quarterly equilibrium exchange rates (EER) of nine Asian currencies (Japan, China, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines) with the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rates (BEER) from 2006 to 2014. The BEER was compared with the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates (FEER) published biannually by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. While four Asian currencies tend to be undervalued in the Peterson's FEER a...

  7. Exchange Rate Undervaluation to Foster Manufactured Exports: A Deliberate Strategy?

    OpenAIRE

    Plane, Patrick; Nouira, Ridha; Sekkat, K.

    2011-01-01

    Recent literature suggests that a proactive strategy consisting of deliberate real exchange rate depreciation can promote exports diversification and growth. This paper is built on these recent developments and investigates whether four developing countries have adopted such a strategy. Data from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia are used to construct and compare the macroeconomic Real Effective exchange rate (REER), similar exchange rates at the sector level (SREER) and the macroeconomic Eq...

  8. Real Output and Prices Adjustments under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Rajmund MIRDALA

    2013-01-01

    Exchange rate regimes evolution in the European transition economies refers to one of the most crucial policy decision in the beginning of the 1990s employed during the initial stages of the transition process. During the period of last two decades we may identify some crucial milestones in the exchange rate regimes evolution in the European transition economies. due to existing diversity in exchange rate arrangements in the European transition economies in the pre-ERM2 period there seems to ...

  9. Exchange rate reform:progress,challenges and prospects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈东琪; 张岸元; 王元

    2009-01-01

    For three decades China has followed an incremental approach in renminbi exchange rate reform.During this period,the exchange rate system has gone through five stages of evolution:i) a"basket peg"exchange rate regime;ii) a dual-track system;Hi) exchange rate convergence;iv) a"unitary pegged"exchange rate regime;and v) a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. Reforming the exchange rate formation mechanism is a complex engineering project influenced by numerous factors such as the economic development mode,industrial structure,basic economic system,market system condition,financial and macroeconomic policy system as well as the new advantages arising from opening-up initiatives.Since 2005,China has achieved substantial success in reforming the exchange rate formation mechanism but still faces a plethora of issues.To address these issues,China should strengthen the role of the market in the exchange rate formation process and gradually push for the free convertibility of the renminbi under the capital account.Amidst the raging global financial crisis,China should further adapt to the diversification of the international monetary system and aggressively proceed with renminbi regionalization and internationalization.

  10. Measuring real exchange rate misalignment in Croatia: cointegration approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Palić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyze misalignment of the real exchange rate in Croatia. The misalignment analysis is conducted using the permanent equilibrium exchange rate approach. The equilibrium real exchange rate is computed using the cointegration approach whereby the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, namely terms of trade, net foreign assets and the ratio of prices of tradables to non-tradables are included in cointegration analysis. The Hodrick and Prescott filter is used to obtain permanent values of the equilibrium real exchange rate. The real exchange rate misalignment is computed as the deviation of the RER from its permanent equilibrium level. Four overvaluation periods and three undervaluation periods are recorded in Croatia in the observed period. Overvaluation periods are more often and of longer duration than undervaluation periods. However, the real exchange rate does not deviate largely from its estimated equilibrium value in the observed period, and it is neither overvalued nor undervalued constantly, but the periods alternate. Considering the results of the analysis, together with the empirical characteristics of Croatian economy, namely the high foreign currency indebtedness, highly euroized economy and underdeveloped export oriented sector, the depreciation of the real exchange rate is not recommended to economic policy makers and the current Croatian exchange rate policy is appropriate.

  11. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østrup, Finn

    , and secondbecause the government's inclination to expand government spending is affectedby inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation,the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under afixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate...... regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy......The article analyses how government spending is determined under differentexchange rate regimes in the context of a small open economy. Assumingnominal wage contracts which last for one period and assuming a benevolentgovernment which determines government spending to optimise...

  12. The Impact of Air Exchange Effectiveness on Thermal Comfort in an Air-Conditioned Office

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roonak Daghigh

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Impact of air exchange effectiveness on thermal comfort has not been investigated and, therefore, not well understood .Therefore, the influence of air exchange effectiveness on thermal comfort is investigated in this study. Approach: The main objective of this research is to investigate the thermal comfort level of an air-conditioned office room under 14 windows-door opening arrangements as a function of maximum, minimum and mean Air Exchange Effectiveness (AEE, as has not been inquired into already. The tracer gas decay method has been applied during the experimental procedures to estimate air exchange effectiveness, on the basis of room average and local mean age of air. Simultaneously, thermal comfort variables were measured and through these data, the thermal comforts Fanger's indices (PMV and PPD were calculated. Staff answered a survey on their sensation of the indoor climate. Results: Results of 60 survey responses to thermal comfort questions in office and indoor air quality are presented. This study has shown that there are relationship between AEE and thermal comfort and three linear regression equations of PMV versus AEE can be derived for this air-conditioned office. Conclusion: Studies on the effect of air exchange effectiveness on thermal comfort in an office have shown that Thermal comfort is influenced by AEE, which go beyond the six factors which have been taken into account in PMV modeling.

  13. Exchange Rate Volatility and the Fear of Floating in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Márcio Holland

    2006-01-01

    Many emerging market economies (EMs) have adopted a floating exchange rate regime after currency crises. Since 1999 Brazil has experienced a floating regime combined with inflation targeting. The Central Bank varies the interest rates in order to reach the targeted inflation rates and consequently the variability of the interest rates has been higher than the variability of the exchange rates. According to some economists, this is a clear symptom of the fear of floating and Brazil can not be ...

  14. Air-sea interactions and exchanges

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.

    stream_size 29870 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name JGOFS_Rep_35_13.pdf.txt stream_source_info JGOFS_Rep_35_13.pdf.txt Content-Encoding UTF-8 Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 13 2.3 Air-Sea Interactions...-99) study. This study was conducted as part of the Indian LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone) programme (Naqvi et al., 2000). These extreme concentrations are higher than those observed (62.5 nM or 953% saturation) during a more limited...

  15. Technology Candidates for Air-to-Air and Air-to-Ground Data Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Brian D.

    2015-01-01

    Technology Candidates for Air-to-Air and Air-to-Ground Data Exchange is a two-year research effort to visualize the U. S. aviation industry at a point 50 years in the future, and to define potential communication solutions to meet those future data exchange needs. The research team, led by XCELAR, was tasked with identifying future National Airspace System (NAS) scenarios, determining requirements and functions (including gaps), investigating technical and business issues for air, ground, & air-to-ground interactions, and reporting on the results. The project was conducted under technical direction from NASA and in collaboration with XCELAR's partner, National Institute of Aerospace, and NASA technical representatives. Parallel efforts were initiated to define the information exchange functional needs of the future NAS, and specific communication link technologies to potentially serve those needs. Those efforts converged with the mapping of each identified future NAS function to potential enabling communication solutions; those solutions were then compared with, and ranked relative to, each other on a technical basis in a structured analysis process. The technical solutions emerging from that process were then assessed from a business case perspective to determine their viability from a real-world adoption and deployment standpoint. The results of that analysis produced a proposed set of future solutions and most promising candidate technologies. Gap analyses were conducted at two points in the process, the first examining technical factors, and the second as part of the business case analysis. In each case, no gaps or unmet needs were identified in applying the solutions evaluated to the requirements identified. The future communication solutions identified in the research comprise both specific link technologies and two enabling technologies that apply to most or all specific links. As a result, the research resulted in a new analysis approach, viewing the

  16. The theory and crisis of free floating exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Tamborini, R

    2013-01-01

    Following the end of the Bretton Woods system faith in a freely floating exchange rate regime, and in particular the complete Laissez-faire policy of the US after 1980, was supported by a large and influential literature - the so-called "stock theory of the exchange rate" - which has had almost absolute dominance in the field. The present work is of primarily a theoretical nature, calling attention to the recent drastic change of opinion regarding the efficiency of foreign exchange markets, o...

  17. The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives

    OpenAIRE

    Dornbusch, Rudiger; Frankel, Jeffrey

    1988-01-01

    We review ten aspects of how floating exchange rates have worked in practice, contrasted with ten characteristics that the system was supposed to have in theory. We conclude that the foreign exchange market is characterized by high transactions-volume, short-term horizons, and an absence of stabilizing speculation. As a result, the exchange rate at times strays from the equilibrium level dictated by fundamentals, contrary to theory. We then look at ten proposed alternatives to the current sys...

  18. EMU, Monetary Policy Interactions and Exchange Rate Stability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A.D. Cavelaars

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThis memorandum discusses the possible impact of a monetary union in Europe on transatlantic exchange rate stability. EMU leads to the elimination of coordination failures within the euro area. Whether this translates into more stable exchange rates, depends on the origin of the shock. M

  19. Restarted Exchange Rate Reform Raises New Doubts on RMB Appreciation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xueqing

    2010-01-01

    @@ The de-pegging of RMB exchange rate from the US dol-lar does not lead to a substantial change in the exchange rate in the short term. Considering the future regime, if the European financial crisis was not lessened, the Euro and other major currencies would continue to devalue against the U.S dollar and the RMB would probably follow suit.

  20. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniquesto compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jumpcomponents, and measures based on prices of ex...... impliedvolatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump componentof future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and thatoption implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component....... exchange rate futures options, allowingcalculation of option implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationallyefficient but biased forecast of future realized exchange rate volatility. Furthermore,we show that log-normality is an even better distributional approximation for...

  1. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    prices and if the latter are exogenous to the exchange rate dynamics. In our view, however, commodity prices are essentially financial asset prices that are set in a forward-looking way, exactly like exchange rates. If both the exchange rate and the commodity prices are based on discounted future......Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export...... of commodity prices. Cross-predictability, in contrast, seems to be only minor at best, not robust to plausible variations in the test design, and bi-directional rather than one-directional. We show to what extent the difference between Chen et al’s empirical findings and ours is due to the presence of time...

  2. The Exchange Rate Exposure of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    A shortcut to measuring exchange rate exposure at the company level can be to exploit the information content in the stock prices. A regression analysis is conducted for the main Danish non-financial companies. The use of one all-comprising exchange rate indicator fails to address the complexity...... of the extra-market exchange rate exposure of individual companies. As such, only a minority of companies has significant exposures when using the effective Danish exchange rate in an OLS regression analysis while half of the companies have significant exposures when using five main exchange rates. A GARCH(1......,1) regression analysis is shown to further improve the detection of exposures. The success in identifying exposures for Danish non-financial companies is in contrast to earlier US studies and is relevant in a European context....

  3. Investigation of heat exchanger inclination in forced-draught air-cooled heat exchangers

    OpenAIRE

    Kennedy, I.J.; Spence, S.W.T.; Spratt, G.R.; Early, J. M.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the influence of inclining the heat exchanger relative to the fan in a forced draught air-cooled heat exchanger. Since inclination increases plenum depth, the effect of inclination is also compared with increasing plenum depth without inclination. The experimental study shows that inclination improves thermal performance by only 0.5%, when compared with a baseline non-inclined case with a shallow plenum. Similarly, increasing plenum depth without incl...

  4. Time Series Models for Exchange Rate and Agricultural Price Forecasts Time Series Models for Exchange Rate and Agricultural Price Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Orden

    1988-03-01

    Full Text Available Time Series Models for Exchange Rate and Agricultural Price Forecasts In this study, we focus on the role of the exchange rate in explaining variation in agricultural commodity prices. Particular attention is paid to stationary and models in levels versus differences and we find differencing useful in making agricultural prices forecasts.

  5. Essays on Unemployment and Real Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Lindblad, Hans

    2010-01-01

    In the first essay, Persistence in Swedish Unemployment Rates, we study if there is no or weak tendency in unemployment rates to revert back to previous levels. Persistence is caused by: natural rate shocks, long unemployment cycles, and spill-over from cyclical to permanent unemployment. We find evidence of high persistence. The results suggest that the quick rise of unemployment rates during 1992-1994 was caused by large permanent and cyclical shocks in combination with spill-over effects. ...

  6. Survey evidence on the exchange rate exposure of Hungarian SMEs

    OpenAIRE

    Katalin Bodnár

    2006-01-01

    During the past year, a survey was conducted among Hungarian small and medium enterprises. The results of the survey suggest that a significant ratio of companies is directly exposed to fluctuations in the exchange rate, which may affect their profitability to a large degree. The majority of surveyed companies, however, are not prepared for the potential effects of such fluctuations and do not use foreign exchange risk management tools. Indebtedness in foreign exchange could serve as the hedg...

  7. Exchange rate formation in Ukraine and its impact on macroeconomic indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koroliuk Tatiana Aleksandrovna

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The factors of exchange rate formation in Ukraine are analyzes in this paper, the influence of exchange rate on macroeconomic indicators of development and the main priorities of the exchange rate policy are determined exchange.

  8. Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Jordanian International Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rania Abedllah Almohaisen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This study tries to investigate the Exchange Rate volatility effects on Jordanian International Trade for the period (1997Q1-2013Q2. The variables include Real Exchange Rate (RER volatility on Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP, Exports (EX and Imports (IMP. In order to estimate volatility, this study used the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH model proposed by Engle (1982 and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH model proposed by Bollerslev (1986. The results show that there is negative effects of real exchange rate volatility on imports and exports of Jordanian economy and a positive effect on real GDP.

  9. Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In heterodox literature, the industrial sector is considered strategic for economic development. Consequently, reducing the contribution of this sector in the production of the country before it has reached the stage of economic maturity, affects the productive dynamics and slow technical progress. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is seen as one of the factors responsible for the reduction of the external competitiveness of Brazilian manufactures, and this exchange rate valuation may be occurring due to the differences between domestic and international interest rates. Given this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy and in the composition of the total exports on the performance of the Brazilian economy using a structuralist model. The results reinforce the importance of the manufacturing sector to economic growth, especially in a competitive exchange rate environment.

  10. Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long-Run

    OpenAIRE

    Beckmann, Joscha; Belke, Ansgar; Kühl, Michael

    2013-01-01

    This paper tries to clarify the question of whether foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan are important for the Dollar-Yen exchange rate in the long-run. Our strategy relies on a re-examination of the empirical performance of a monetary exchange rate model. This is basically not a new topic; however, we put our focus on two new questions. Firstly, does the consideration of periods of massive interventions in the foreign exchange market help to uncover a potentia...

  11. Modelling the Real Exchange Rate: A new Sequential Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Slim Chaouachi; Zied Ftiti; Frédèric Teulon

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this work is to propose a new sequential strategy-three steps testing procedure- based on recently introduced econometric techniques, in order to assess the meanreverting properties of the real exchange rate and to check whether real exchange r

  12. Air exchanges and indoor carbon dioxide concentration in Australian pig buildings: Effect of housing and management factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banhazi, T. M.; Stott, P.; Rutley, D.;

    2011-01-01

    There has been a growing interest in improving air quality within livestock buildings. However, the influence of housing and management factors on air exchange rates and indoor gas concentrations is not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of housing and management...... factors on the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and air exchange rates in 160 representative Australian pig buildings. CO(2) concentrations were measured, air changes per hour (ACH) were estimated using a CO(2) balance method, and structural and management parameters were recorded. The mean CO(2......) concentration measured was 858 ppm and a mean air exchange rate of 22.8 ACH was estimated. The analysis showed that CO(2) concentrations were affected by the type of building, season, control of the wall and ridge vents, ceiling height, size of the wall vents and height of the ridge vents. Weaner buildings had...

  13. MONETARY SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CEE COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Erjavec

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of the exchange rate regime in absorbing macroeconomic shocks for a group of Central and East European countries (CEE. Whether the flexible exchange rate regime is beneficial for an economy depends on the capacity of the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. An appropriate framework for assessing the role of the exchange rate is a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR model. Impact of two types of macroeconomic shocks is estimated: nominal and real. The shocks are identified on the basis of Blanchard-Quah long run identification scheme which means that the restrictions are imposed on the long run responses while the short run dynamics is kept unrestricted. The importance of nominal and real shocks is assessed using the variance decomposition and the impulse response functions.

  14. Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation Targeting in Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    H., Hernando Vargas

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines Colombia's experience with an inflation-targeting monetary policy following the abandonment of exchange rate bands in 1999, and two episodes in 2003 and 2004 that deviated from this general behavior. In these episodes, the Central Bank intervened in the forex market on a relatively large scale in order to affect the trend of the exchange rate (managed floating). These episodes are examined to draw lessons and highlight the main challenges facing monetary and forex policy. ...

  15. Real Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices in a Neoclassical Model

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    1988-01-01

    This paper represents a neoclassical model that explains the observed empirical relationship between government spending and world commodity supplies and the real exchange rate and real commodity prices. It is shown that fiscal expansion and increasing world commodity supplies simultaneously lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a decline in relative commodity prices. The structural model is estimated and its forecasting performance is compared to a variety of models. We fin...

  16. Emission Trading in Europe with an Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Klaassen, G.; Forsund, F.R.; M. Amann

    1994-01-01

    This paper explores the analytical and empirical properties of a new method for emission trading according to a fixed exchange rate. The exchange rate is based on the ratios of the marginal costs of abatement in the optimal solution in order to account for the impact of the location of emission sources on the deposition. It is shown that, generally, this system will not achieve the optimal solution and does not guarantee that environmental deposition constraints are not violated, although...

  17. De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies

    OpenAIRE

    von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong

    2002-01-01

    This paper provides an empirical investigation on the discrepancies between official exchange rate regimes and de facto exchange rate policies in transition economies. Since official and de facto regime choices are not independent of each other, we adopt a bivariate probit model to describe the joint determination of the two regime choices. After finding the important determinants of both regime choices, we use a univariate probit model to describe the determination of regime discrepancies. W...

  18. Hedging and Managing Exchange Rate and Related Macroeconomic Exposure

    OpenAIRE

    Oxelheim, Lars; Wihlborg, Clas G.

    1987-01-01

    Hedging transaction and translation exposures to exchange rate changes may increase the economic exposure of the firm and reduce the information value of firms' quarterly statements. In this paper hedging macroeconomic exposures, of which exchange rate exposure is one type, is discussed in terms of choice of macroeconomic variables for which exposures could be measured, choice of strategy for managing exposures, and choice of financial instruments for hedging different exposures.

  19. Floating Exchange Rates in Peru, 1950-54

    OpenAIRE

    Lyons, Richard K.

    1991-01-01

    I test three potentially complementary models in an effort to capture the fundamentals that underlaid the market's determination of Peru's floating exchange rate through the period 1950-54: the first is an expectational purchasing power parity (PPP) model which maintains that asset market forces were driving the exchange rate to its perceived PPP level; the second is a flexible-price monetary model; and the third is a model along the lines described by Tsiang (1957) which emphasizes world pri...

  20. U.K. inflation targeting and the exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher Allsopp; Amit Kara; Edward Nelson

    2006-01-01

    The United Kingdom*s monetary policy strategy is one of floating exchange rates and inflation forecast targeting, with the targeted measure referring to consumer prices. We consider whether it is welfare-reducing to target inflation in the CPI rather than in a narrower index; and the role of the exchange rate in the transmission of monetary policy actions to CPI inflation. We argue that it is appropriate to model imports as intermediate goods rather than as goods consumed directly by househol...

  1. Exploring oil price – exchange rate nexus for Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad, Zahid; Suleiman, Hassan; Kouhy, Reza

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the oil price - exchange rate nexus for Nigeria during the period 2007-2010 using daily data. The generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models are employed to examine the impact of oil price changes on the nominal exchange rate .The outcome of this research indicates that a rise in oil prices leads to a depreciation of the Nigerian Naira vis-à-vis the US dollar over the study period.

  2. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate. PMID:26222702

  3. Exchange Rate Undervaluation and Manufactured Exports: A Deliberate Strategy?

    OpenAIRE

    Nouira, Ridha; Plane, Patrick; Sekkat, K.

    2011-01-01

    Recent literature suggests that a proactive exchange rate policy in accordance with price incentives (i.e. undervaluation) can foster manufactured exports and growth. This paper is built on these recent developments and investigates, using a sample of 52 developing countries, whether such a proactive exchange rate policy is adopted. The results show that during the period 1991-2005 a number of countries has used undervaluation to foster the price competitiveness of manufactured exports.

  4. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  5. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    Full Text Available Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  6. The Effect of Capital Controls on Exchange Rate Risk

    OpenAIRE

    VERSTEEG, Roald; Straetmans, Stefan

    2010-01-01

    Many countries try to smooth their exchange rate movements by means of capital controls or otherwise. By the use of statistical extreme value analysis, we investigate if capital controls succeed in lowering foreign exchange rate (forex) volatility. We define forex volatility as the risk of extreme depreciations. For a sample of developed and emerging markets we find that capital controls are not effective in reducing this extreme depreciation risk. On the contrary, extreme depreciation risk i...

  7. ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Mirchandani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

  8. Neural Network Based Forecasting of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kumar Chandar

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The foreign currency exchange market is the highest and most liquid of the financial markets, with an estimated $1 trillion traded every day. Foreign exchange rates are the most important economic indices in the international financial markets. The prediction of them poses many theoretical and experimental challenges. This paper reports empirical proof that a neural network model is applicable to the prediction of foreign exchange rates. The exchange rates between Indian Rupee and four other major currencies, Pound Sterling, US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen are forecast by the trained neural networks. The neural network was trained by three different learning algorithms using historical data to find the suitable algorithm for prediction. The forecasting performance of the proposed system is evaluated using three statistical metrics and compared. The results presented here demonstrate that significantly close prediction can be made without extensive knowledge of market data.

  9. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. PMID:25741459

  10. Econometric Analysis of Croatia’s Proclaimed Foreign Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mance Davor

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.

  11. A Noteon Dual Foreign Exchange Markets with official Rationing; Predetermined Versus Floating official Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    José Saúl Lizondo

    1991-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between the long run rate of inflation and the allocation of transactions between markets in economies that operate dual exchange market regimes and ration foreign exchange in the official market. It shows that wider access of importers to the official market, and wider access of exporters to the free market, are associated with higher rates of inflation and vice versa. The direction of causality among the various variables, and thus the effects of economi...

  12. Exchange Rate Instability and Sectoral Exports: Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Haseeb

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Exports of a country is one of the main factors indicating economic health of a country and fluctuating exchange rates and relative price can significantly affect the level of exports and it is an alarming situation for a country when its exports are affected by exchange rate volatility. Impact of exchange rate volatility and relative price on trade has been a heated debate in the field of finance and most of work has been done on aggregate and bilateral trade. Few researches are found on product basis especially in the scenario of Pakistan. This research will provide an overview of the exports of 13 different products from Pakistan. Secondary data is used to analyze the impact of exchange rate instability on the exports of different products from Pakistan to all over the world. Significance of the study depends on the right choice of estimation method. We use auto regressive distributive lags (ARDL method to check the relationship of two main variables. Glass, meat and paper & board products show that relative price affects negatively to exports so Government should make policies to strengthen the exports of these three products. Government can provide subsidies on these products in order to boost up the exports and make these products competitive in international market. Under the shadow of our results we conclude that exchange rate volatility has significant negative relationship with the exports of food processing machinery, grapes, meat and petroleum products so government needs to be focused on it when exchange rate are highly instable. Iron & steel bars show short run negative impact of exchange rate however this impact is adjusted in the long run.

  13. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Employment in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmira Cakrani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Unemployment is a big economical and social issue for each country, in particular for Albania, which is a country that comes from a centralized system where the state ensured full employment. In the struggle of applying the transition to market economy, each government had to face the two-digit levels of unemployment. Because of this, the application of the right policies in order to decrease the level of unemployment has been in the centre of the program of each government in Albania. The objective of this paper is to show if the undervaluation or overvaluation of the real exchange rate can affect in a significant way the level of employment in Albania and that to answer the question, if the real exchange rate can be used as a political instrument for the reduction of the level of unemployment. There are relatively few works that study the impact of real exchange rate on the Albanian economy and in my knowledge there is not a previous work on employment and real exchange rate relationship in Albania, so this can be considered as the first study that attempt to assess this relationship. To evaluate the link between the real exchange rate and the level of employment the Johansen procedure and Vector Error Correction Term method is used. The result of the study demonstrates not statistically significant impact of real exchange rate on level of employment, suggesting that the increase of competition of the country through the real exchange rate doesn’t improve the condition of the employment in Albania, so the Albanian government should implement other strategies to increase the level of employment in the country.

  14. Real Exchange Rate in China: A Long-run Perspective

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Haihong Gao

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long-run viewpoint. Whether China's rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply-side model, the Balassa-Semuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia,Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy.Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China's industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH's prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant.

  15. Exchange-Driven Growth with Birth Rate Less Than Death

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Zhen-Quan; KE Jian-Hong; YE Gao-Xiang

    2005-01-01

    We further study the kinetic behavior of the exchange-driven growth with birth and death for the case of birth rate kernel being less than that of death based on the mean-field theory. The symmetric exchange rate kernel is K(k,j) = K'(k,j) = Ikjv, and the birth and death rates are proportional to the aggregate's size. The long time asymptotic behavior of the aggregate size distribution ak(t) is found to obey a much unusual scaling law with an exponentially growing scaling function φ(x) = exp(x).

  16. THE CHOSEN EXCHANGE RATE AS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCING THE RISKS OF CURRENCY EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Attila Rozsa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The profitability of the operation of an enterprise is influenced by several factors. Beside the evolution of market supply and demand the hectic changes in exchange rates have an increasingly important role too. Since the start of the economic crisis in the autumn of 2008, changes in the exchange rate have been more and more emphasized. The article deals with methods for decreasing exchange risks of foreign currency transactions, without the need of completeness. In international trade due to the growth of the number of currency loans the significance of managing financial risks coming from the changes in exchange rates has increased. One of the most obvious tools is properly selected currency.

  17. The trade balance and the real exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Enisse Kharroubi

    2011-01-01

    Globalisation has affected the relationship between the trade balance and the real exchange rate in two ways. On the one hand, the growth of trade taking place within industries makes the trade balance more sensitive to real exchange movements. On the other hand, a higher degree of vertical specialisation and more global supply chains act to reduce this sensitivity. The relative importance of these two effects varies across countries. According to the estimates presented in this article, chan...

  18. The new exchangers in refrigeration and air, conditioning applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marvillet, Ch. [CEA, 38 - Grenoble (France). GRETh

    1997-12-31

    The investigation carried out by the `heat exchangers` network has revealed a number of points which should be noted here at the beginning of this presentation. It has been observed that most of today`s products (fin and tube heat exchangers) are designed along traditional lines. However despite this `conservatism`, a lot of attention is found on the technical and innovative techniques used in other areas of the world (particularly in Japan). Moreover, some of these innovative techniques (micro fin tubes, louvered fins) tend to be more frequently applied than others, and their gradual introduction into products which are `made in the EEC` is to be expected. The purpose of this paper is to respond, at least partially, to the interest shown by the industries contacted. during this investigation in these new techniques. In the first chapter, an overview of the information available today on high performance thermal heat exchange surfaces will be given. Micro-fin tubes and louvered fins will be the two surfaces considered in the first part of this document. According to this investigation, the fin and tube heat exchanger remains the only product available today for evaporating and condensing refrigerant applications using air as the fluid to be treated. Other technological solutions exist, however; brazed fin and plate heat exchangers commonly used in applications where compactness is an essential quality will be examined in the second part of this document. Moreover, the use of fluids which will replace CFCS in the years to come, and the possible comeback of ammonia will certainly have consequences on the design of evaporators and condensers. In the third part of this document the effects of these changes on fin and tube heat exchangers will be evaluated, and the first published results of the use of substitution fluids will be discussed. (author) 16 refs.

  19. Exchange Rate Movement and Foreign Direct Investment in Asean Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaratin Lily

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI are important for a country's economic development, but the world market for FDI has become more competitive. This paper empirically analyses the exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI relationship using annual data on ASEAN economies, that is, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. By employing ARDL bounds test approach, the empirical results show the existence of significant long-run cointegration between exchange rate and FDI for the case of Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines with all countries recording negative coefficient implying that the appreciation of Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and the Philippine peso has a positive impact on FDI inflows. Using the ECM based ARDL approach for causality test, both Singapore and the Philippines show long-run bidirectional causality between exchange rate and FDI whereas long-run unidirectional causality running from the exchange rate to FDI in Malaysia. Furthermore, this study also found that short-run unidirectional causality running from the exchange rate to FDI exists in Singapore.

  20. Quasi-steady-state model of a counter flow air-to-air heat exchanger with phase change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jørgen; Nielsen, Toke Rammer; Kragh, Jesper;

    2008-01-01

    -exchanger. Developing highly efficient heat-exchangers and strategies to avoid/remove frost formation implies the use of detailed models to predict and evaluate different heat-exchanger designs and strategies. This paper presents a quasi-steady-state model of a counter-flow air-to-air heat-exchanger that takes...... European and arctic climate conditions. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  1. The Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Differential Relationship: Evidence from Two Financial Crises

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Kui-Wai; Wong, Douglas K T

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the contemporaneous and inter-temporal interaction between real exchange rate and real interest rate differential in the two financial crises of 1997 and 2008 by using data from thirteen countries from different world regions. The empirical result shows that negative contemporaneous relationship exists in most countries. In addition, there is little evidence on a systematic inter-temporal relationship between the real interest rate differential and the real exchange rate, ...

  2. Chinese Yuan after Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Eiji Ogawa; Michiru Sakane

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, the actual exchange rate policy conducted by the Chinese government after the Chinese exchange rate system reform on 21 July 2005 is investigated. Also, the long-run effect is investigated, including the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the Chinese yuan. It was found that the Chinese government generated a statistically significant but small change in exchange rate policy during the sample period until 25 January 2006. It was not identifted that the Chinese monetary authority is adopting the currency basket system because the change is too small in the economic sense. It is indicated that the Chinese government should take account of the productivity growth of countries composing the currency basket in order to operate a currency basket regime.

  3. Extreme-value dependence: An application to exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Viviana

    2007-04-01

    Extreme value theory (EVT) focuses on modeling the tail behavior of a loss distribution using only extreme values rather than the whole data set. For a sample of 10 countries with dirty/free float regimes, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence. That is, whether an extremely large appreciation or depreciation in the nominal exchange rate of one country might transmit to another. In general, after controlling for volatility clustering and inertia in returns, we do not find evidence of extreme-value dependence between paired exchange rates. However, for asymptotic-independent paired returns, we find that tail dependency of exchange rates is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations.

  4. Productive Government Spending, Welfare and Exchange Rate Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juha Tervala

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the consequences of productive government spending on the international transmission of fiscal policy. A standard result in the new open economy macroeconomics literature is that a fiscal shock depreciates the exchange rate. I demonstrate that the response of the exchange rate depends on the productivity of government spending. If productivity is sufficiently high, a fiscal shock appreciates the exchange rate. It is also shown that the introduction of productive government spending increases both domestic and foreign welfare, when compared with the case where government spending is wasted. This is because productive government spending has a positive effect on private consumption in both countries in a two country NOEM model.

  5. EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Ghiba

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Considering the difficulties created by the economic crisis, many exporters have criticized the National Bank of Romania (NBR’s policy regarding the exchange rate evolution. They argue that depreciation is a necessary condition for recovery and not financial stability. On the contrary, Romania cannot afford a shock in the exchange rate level. The risk associated with such a measure is too high for an emerging country and it annihilates any export competitive advantages. Therefore, depreciation may delay the imperative of Romanian economic recovery. A solid economic recovery should have as starting point a financial system sound and stable. Excessive exchange rate depreciation jeopardizes the financial soundness of banks and the borrower’s ability to repay their loans. Therefore, it creates inflationary flare-ups, particularly dangerous for the economy of any state.

  6. Do reductions in black market exchange rate premia cause inflation?

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Larue; Jean-Philippe Gervais

    2001-01-01

    Unification of the black and official exchange rates and increasing the rate of crawl of the official rate are the competing prescriptions to reduce inefficiencies caused by the black market premia. Pinto (1991) showed that the removal of implicit export taxes could force governments to raise inflation to finance their budget deficit. Park (1995) and Morris (1995) demonstrated that unification need not raise the steady-state level of inflation. In this paper, we investigate the inflation-blac...

  7. Relationship between Formation Water Rate, Equivalent Penetration Rate and Volume Flow Rate of Air in Air Drilling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Kexiong; Zhang Laibin; Jiang Hongwei

    2007-01-01

    Formation water invasion is the most troublesome problem associated with air drilling. However, it is not economical to apply mist drilling when only a small amount of water flows into wellbore from formation during air drilling. Formation water could be circulated out of the wellbore through increasing the gas injection rate. In this paper,the Angel model was modified by introducing Nikurade friction factor for the flow in coarse open holes and translating formation water rate into equivalent penetration rate. Thus the distribution of annular pressure and the relationship between minimum air injection rate and formation water rate were obtained. Real data verification indicated that the modified model is more accurate than the Angel model and can provide useful information for air drilling.

  8. Exchange rate volatility effects on export competitiveness. Romanian Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca GHERMAN

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we determine and analyze the impact of the exchange rate variation over the international trade of Romania. We highlighted the sense of the relationship between exchange rate and exports or imports, but the intensity between the variables and the lags that characterize the interdependency between them. In the context of actual great imbalances in the global economy and other risks (financial, political or social that drive to the decrease in aggregate demand on global level, we consider that external competitivity became one of the key variable for the economic growth in Romania like an integrated process in the European economy.

  9. Diffusion equations and the time evolution of foreign exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate which type of diffusion equation is most appropriate to describe the time evolution of foreign exchange rates. We modify the geometric diffusion model assuming a non-exponential time evolution and the stochastic term is the sum of a Wiener noise and a jump process. We find the resulting diffusion equation to obey the Kramers–Moyal equation. Analytical solutions are obtained using the characteristic function formalism and compared with empirical data. The analysis focus on the first four central moments considering the returns of foreign exchange rate. It is shown that the proposed model offers a good improvement over the classical geometric diffusion model.

  10. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: "Speculation" in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    that the larger the company (ability) and the larger its relative sale on foreign markets (relevance), the more likely the company will be to benchmark its exchange rate exposures. However, at the same time the very same factors (size and foreign sale) lead to more extensive speculation. Financial solvency (value......"Speculation" in non-financial companies in relation to exchange rate exposure management constitutes one of the contributing factors behind corporate (or more widespread) crises. Deviations from benchmark positions constitute speculation. An empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds...

  11. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  12. Analysis of the Effect of Interest Rate Corridor Strategy on Common Stock and Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Metin Tetik

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is found to find out how interest rate corridor strategy, which is new policy tool implemented by Central Bank of Turkey in 2011, affects financial investment tools, common stocks and Exchange rates. The study separates the time into two periods, the period before interest rate corridor strategy and the period after implementation of interest rate corridor strategy. The effects of the changes in policy interest rate on the common stocks and exchange rate are examined in the framework of structural vector auto regression (SVAR model. The most important finding is that the effect of a change in policy interest rate on common stocks and exchange rate becomes more permanent after interest rate corridor strategy. Another finding is that short term capital flows with speculative move is deterred from after this strategy. Findings are in coincidence with the results of increase in interest rate volatility as Başçı and Kara (2011 suggests.

  13. THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARYING EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandu Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The benefit of international trade is a more efficient employment of the productive forces of the world. (John Stuart Mill The exchange rate is a primary factor that influences economy. This instrument is used by some countries in order to improve the lack of balance caused as a result of the financial crisis felt in many countries considered by then infallible. The negative effects of the financial crisis can also be found in the decreased volume of commodities involved in international trade exchanges, as a consequence of modified prices and decreased offer. The globalizing trend leads to a constant expansion of exchanges between countries and to the consolidation of international cooperation. Except that economic interdependence generates an increased risk under the influence of economic, financial, monetary or political factors. The currency risk can generate either a gain or loss during foreign trade operations. The long period of RON depreciation made possible the entry of Romanian products on the international markets due to their prices. Sheltered by the gain generated by the evolution of the exchange rate, most of the exporters were not concerned by the increase of product competitiveness or by avoiding the currency risk. The fact that, for many years, the evolution of the exchange rate generated substantial losses for the exporters shows that risk coverage in Romania is, in most cases, a purely theoretical concept.

  14. Forecasting of Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Using Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. S. Kumar Chandar

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Foreign exchange market is the largest and the most important one in the world. Foreign exchange transaction is the simultaneous selling of one currency and buying of another currency. It is essential for currency trading in the international market. In this paper, we have investigated Artificial Neural Networks based prediction modelling of foreign exchange rates using five different training algorithms. The model was trained using historical data to predict four foreign currency exchange rates against Indian Rupee. The forecasting performance of the proposed system is evaluated by using statistical metric and compared. From the results, it is confirmed that the new approach provided an improve technique to forecast foreign exchange rate. It is also an effective tool and significantly close prediction can be made using simple structure. Among the five models, Levenberg-Marquardt based model outperforms than other models and attains comparable results. It also demonstrates the power of the proposed approach and produces more accurate prediction. In conclusion, the proposed scheme can improve the forecasting performance significantly when measured on three commonly used metrics.

  15. Foreign exchange rate entropy evolution during financial crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stosic, Darko; Stosic, Dusan; Ludermir, Teresa; de Oliveira, Wilson; Stosic, Tatijana

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the effects of financial crises on foreign exchange (FX) markets, where entropy evolution is measured for different exchange rates, using the time-dependent block entropy method. Empirical results suggest that financial crises are associated with significant increase of exchange rate entropy, reflecting instability in FX market dynamics. In accordance with phenomenological expectations, it is found that FX markets with large liquidity and large trading volume are more inert - they recover quicker from a crisis than markets with small liquidity and small trading volume. Moreover, our numerical analysis shows that periods of economic uncertainty are preceded by periods of low entropy values, which may serve as a tool for anticipating the onset of financial crises.

  16. The limiting distribution of extremal exchange rate yields

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.A.B. Hols (Martien); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractSeveral nonnested fat-tailed distributions have been advocated for modelling exchange rate returns. Instead of directly estimating these nonnested distributions we investigate the extremal distribution of the returns. The advantage is that the parameter which characterizes the amount of

  17. Exchange Rate Misalignment in Turkey: Overvalution of the Turkish Lira

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arif Orçun Söylemez

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In 2001, Modern Turkey experienced the most severe financial collapse in its history during the implementation of an anti-inflationary, fixed-exchange-rate-based stabilisation program. An important part of critisms following this collapse focused on the exchange rates. The main argument was that the program overlooked the fact that Turkish Lira was highly overvalued during the implementation of the stabilisation program. The currency of a country would be overvalued if its realized values against other currencies persistently stayed over the long-term equilibrium trend. Overvalution of a currency is an important matter for any country because the exchange rates are decisive on the external balance of a country, the stability of financial system, and the internal prices and hence on the allocation of resources. Plus, the two recent financial crises in Turkey, in 1994 and 2001, broke out after significant overvaluations in the Turkish Lira. This study found significant overvaluations in cumulative terms in the Turkish Lira for the period after 2001. Although, Turkey might have gained some resilience to exchange rate misalignments after 2001 due to political and economic changes in the country, the high level of overvaluation in the Turkish Lira should nevertheless be seen as a risk factor.

  18. Neural network analysis of varying trends in real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. Kaashoek (Johan); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper neural networks are fitted to the real exchange rates of seven industrialized countries. The size and topology of the used networks is found by reducing the size of the network through the use of multiple correlation coefficients, principal component analysis of residuals a

  19. The credibility of the European exchange rate mechanism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knot, K.H.W.; Sturm, J.E.; de Haan, J.

    1998-01-01

    Using a panel data approach and three different credibility measures, we argue that unemployment, inflation, and budget deficits in participating countries have affected the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS. In contrast to most previous research, which focuses upon the credibili

  20. RMB's Exchange Rate Policy Shift Creates Opportunity for Neighboring Countries

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao Yingying

    2010-01-01

    @@ The Chinese Yuan showed a trend to rise against the U.S. Dollar after the announcement of the People's Bank of China, Chinas central bank, to proceed further with the reform of the Yuan's exchange rate regime. Other Asian currencies followed the upward move.

  1. Exchange rate determination : Is there a role for macroeconomic fundamentals?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de

    1997-01-01

    A review of recent literature shows that the application of co-integration techniques and the use of larger data sets have led to more empirical evidence in favour of both the Purchasing Power Parity and the monetary approach to exchange rate determination as long-run relationships. Forecasts based

  2. Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonam, D.; Lukkezen, J.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By rais

  3. Exchange Rate as Monetary Policy Channel (in Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    Terai, Akira; Iida, Yasuyuki; Hamada, Koichi

    2003-01-01

    Although the Bank of Japan has recently (in 2003) conducted an expansionary monetary policy that targets the current accounts balance, additional monetary policies aimed at overcoming the deflationary situation may be necessary. No monetary vehicle to stimulate the economy under the "zero interest rate" situation, however, exists. In such circumstances, the maintenance of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel is preferred. To investigate this channel, we must understand the validi...

  4. Export growth, economic growth and real exchange rate in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Wing-Keung Lo, K.

    2000-01-01

    The thesis studies the export growth, economic growth and real exchange rate in Indonesia. The research is a piece of empirical studies mainly covering the period from 1974 to 1993. Indonesia is an oil-exporting country. Economic recession with high inflation rate in the early eighties prompted the government to undertake a series of economic and financial reforms. It was believed that oil export earnings by itself could not sustain long-term economic growth. Trade reform and devaluation woul...

  5. Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms

    OpenAIRE

    Nicolas E. Magud; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Esteban R. Vesperoni

    2012-01-01

    The prospects of expansionary monetary policies in the advanced countries for the foreseeable future have renewed the debate over policy options to cope with large capital inflows that are, at least partly, driven by low interest rates in the financial centers. Historically, capital flow bonanzas have often fueled sharp credit expansions in advanced and emerging market economies alike. Focusing primarily on emerging markets, we analyze the impact of exchange rate flexibility on credit markets...

  6. Fixed Exchange Rate Versus Inflation Targeting: Evidence from DSGE Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Viktors Ajevskis; Kristine Vitola

    2011-01-01

    We evaluate implications of inflation targeting versus fixed exchange rate regime for the UK, Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, i.e. seven EU non-euro area countries. To this end, we estimate a small open economy DSGE model and simulate a model under estimated structural parameters and different sets of policy parameters. The results obtained are compared in terms of inflation, output gap and interest rate volatility. For inflation targeting countries, a polic...

  7. Exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the Portuguese target zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Portugal Duarte António

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyse the exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the participation of the Portuguese economy in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM of the European Monetary System (EMS based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. Portugal adopted this exchange rate target zone from April 6 1992 until December 31 1998. During this period, the exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Paul Krugman (1991 model. The analysis of the data also shows that exchange rate volatility tended to increase as the exchange rate approached the edges of the band, contrary to the predictions of the basic model. Interest rate differential volatility, on the other hand, seemed to behave in line with theoretical predictions. This suggests an increase in the credibility of monetary policy, allowing us to conclude that the adoption of a target zone has contributed decisively to the creation of the macroeconomic stability conditions necessary for the participation in the European Monetary Union (EMU. The Portuguese integration process should therefore be considered as an example to be followed by other small open economies in transition to the euro area.

  8. [Effect of air temperature and rainfall on wetland ecosystem CO2 exchange in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Xiao-jing; Han, Guang-xuan

    2015-10-01

    Wetland can be a potential efficient sink to reduce global warming due to its higher primary productivity and lower carbon decomposition rate. While there has been a series progress on the influence mechanism of ecosystem CO2 exchange over China' s wetlands, a systematic metaanalysis of data still needs to be improved. We compiled data of ecosystem CO2 exchange of 21 typical wetland vegetation types in China from 29 papers and carried out an integrated analysis of air temperature and precipitation effects on net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (Reco), gross primary productivity (GPP), the response of NEE to PAR, and the response of Reco to temperature. The results showed that there were significant responses (PReco (R2 = 44%, R2=50%) with increasing air temperature and enhanced precipitation on the annual scale. On the growing season scale, air temperature accounted for 50% of the spatial variation of NEE, 36% of GPP and 19% of Reco, respectively. Both NEE (R2 = 33%) and GPP (R2 =25%) were correlated positively with precipitation (PReco and precipitation was not significant (P>0.05). Across different Chinese wetlands, both precipitation and temperature had no significant effect on apparent quantum yield (α) or ecosystem respiration in the daytime (Reco,day, P>0.05). The maximum photosynthesis rate (Amax) was remarkably correlated with precipitation (P 0.05). Precipitation was negatively correlated with temperature sensitivity of Reco (Q10, PReco (Q10) and basal respiration (Rref P<0.05), respectively. PMID:26995905

  9. Covariation of synaptonemal complex length and mammalian meiotic exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Audrey; Koehler, Kara E; Judis, LuAnn; Chan, Ernest R; Cherry, Jonathan P; Schwartz, Stuart; Seftel, Allen; Hunt, Patricia A; Hassold, Terry J

    2002-06-21

    Analysis of recombination between loci (linkage analysis) has been a cornerstone of human genetic research, enabling investigators to localize and, ultimately, identify genetic loci. However, despite these efforts little is known about patterns of meiotic exchange in human germ cells or the mechanisms that control these patterns. Using recently developed immunofluorescence methodology to examine exchanges in human spermatocytes, we have identified remarkable variation in the rate of recombination within and among individuals. Subsequent analyses indicate that, in humans and mice, this variation is linked to differences in the length of the synaptonemal complex. Thus, at least in mammals, a physical structure, the synaptonemal complex, reflects genetic rather than physical distance.

  10. The theory and crisis of free floating exchange rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. TAMBORINI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Following the end of the Bretton Woods system faith in a freely floating exchange rate regime, and in particular the complete Laissez-faire policy of the US after 1980, was supported by a large and influential literature - the so-called "stock theory of the exchange rate" - which has had almost absolute dominance in the field. The present work is of primarily a theoretical nature, calling attention to the recent drastic change of opinion regarding the efficiency of foreign exchange markets, of expectations and speculation. In contrast to the previously held belief, agents that anticipate the market are now accused of inefficient, if not irrational behaviour; they are said to be misinterpreting or violating the "hard data" that should lead the market on the path of equilibrium. According to the author, this new vein is challenging, yet the new "bad" deus ex machina is as unconvincing as its "good" predecessors. Thus, the focus is precisely on the fundamental factors of the dynamics of exchange rates in the current environment of integrated finance.

  11. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action generated macro - financial stability in terms of inflation and price fluctuation. However, in terms of microeconomic aspects, the unilateral adaptation of Euro as the official currency of Kosovo failed to provide microeconomic advantages such as to export stimulation, and so forth. The main exchange rate regime systems were discussed focusing in their advantages and disadvantages, and it was concluded that there is no commonly accepted theory regarding the optimality of exchange rate regimes. In addition, the global financial crisis impact in the financial system of Kosovo is also discussed and it was found that negative impacts of global financial crisis were moderate and indirect.

  12. Dry/wet performance of a plate-fin air-cooled heat exchanger with continuous corrugated fins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The performance and operating characteristics of a plate-fin heat exchanger in dry/wet or deluge operations was experimentally determined. Development of the deluge heat/mass transfer model continued. The experiments were conducted in a specially-designed wind tunnel at the PNL. Air that was first heated and humidified to specified conditions was circulated at a controlled rate through a 2 ft x 6 ft heat exchanger module. The heat exchanger used in the tests was a wavy surface, plate fin on tube configuration. Hot water was circulated through the tubes at high flow rates to maintain an essentially isothermal condition on the tube side. Deionized water sprayed on the top of the vertically oriented plate fins was collected at the bottom of the core and recirculated. Instrumentation was provided for measurement of flow rates and thermodynamic conditions in the air, in the core circulation water, and in the deluge water. Measurements of the air side pressure drop and heat rejection rate were made as a function of air flow rate, air inlet temperature and humidity, deluge water flow rate, and the core inclination from the vertical. An overall heat transfer coefficient and an effective deluge film convective coefficient was determined. The deluge model, for predicting heat transfer from a wet finned heat exchanger was further developed and refined, and a major extension of the model was formulated that permits simultaneous calculation of both the heat transfer and evaporation rates from the wetted surface. The experiments showed an increase in the heat rejection rate due to wetting, accompanied by a proportional increase in the air side pressure drop. For operation at the same air side pressure drop, the enhancement ratio Q/sub w//Q/sub d/ varied between 2 and 5 for the conditions tested. Thus, the potential enhancement of heat transfer due to wetting can be substantial

  13. Dry/wet performance of a plate-fin air-cooled heat exchanger with continuous corrugated fins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hauser, S.G.; Kreid, D.K.; Johnson, B.M.

    1981-01-01

    The performance and operating characteristics of a plate-fin heat exchanger in dry/wet or deluge operations was experimentally determined. Development of the deluge heat/mass transfer model continued. The experiments were conducted in a specially-designed wind tunnel at the PNL. Air that was first heated and humidified to specified conditions was circulated at a controlled rate through a 2 ft x 6 ft heat exchanger module. The heat exchanger used in the tests was a wavy surface, plate fin on tube configuration. Hot water was circulated through the tubes at high flow rates to maintain an essentially isothermal condition on the tube side. Deionized water sprayed on the top of the vertically oriented plate fins was collected at the bottom of the core and recirculated. Instrumentation was provided for measurement of flow rates and thermodynamic conditions in the air, in the core circulation water, and in the deluge water. Measurements of the air side pressure drop and heat rejection rate were made as a function of air flow rate, air inlet temperature and humidity, deluge water flow rate, and the core inclination from the vertical. An overall heat transfer coefficient and an effective deluge film convective coefficient was determined. The deluge model, for predicting heat transfer from a wet finned heat exchanger was further developed and refined, and a major extension of the model was formulated that permits simultaneous calculation of both the heat transfer and evaporation rates from the wetted surface. The experiments showed an increase in the heat rejection rate due to wetting, accompanied by a proportional increase in the air side pressure drop. For operation at the same air side pressure drop, the enhancement ratio Q/sub w//Q/sub d/ varied between 2 and 5 for the conditions tested. Thus, the potential enhancement of heat transfer due to wetting can be substantial.

  14. Air-water gas exchange by waving vegetation stems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster-Martinez, M. R.; Variano, E. A.

    2016-07-01

    Exchange between wetland surface water and the atmosphere is driven by a variety of motions, ranging from rainfall impact to thermal convection and animal locomotion. Here we examine the effect of wind-driven vegetation movement. Wind causes the stems of emergent vegetation to wave back and forth, stirring the water column and facilitating air-water exchange. To understand the magnitude of this effect, a gas transfer velocity (k600 value) was measured via laboratory experiments. Vegetation waving was studied in isolation by mechanically forcing a model canopy to oscillate at a range of frequencies and amplitudes matching those found in the field. The results show that stirring due to vegetation waving produces k600 values from 0.55 cm/h to 1.60 cm/h. The dependence of k600 on waving amplitude and frequency are evident from the laboratory data. These results indicate that vegetation waving has a nonnegligible effect on gas transport; thus, it can contribute to a mechanistic understanding of the fluxes underpinning biogeochemical processes.

  15. Computational Fluid Dynamic Modeling of Horizontal Air-Ground Heat Exchangers (HAGHE for HVAC Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Maria Congedo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to satisfy the requirements of Directive 2010/31/EU for Zero Energy Buildings (ZEB, innovative solutions were investigated for building HVAC systems. Horizontal air-ground heat exchangers (HAGHE offer a significant contribution in reducing energy consumption for ventilation, using the thermal energy stored underground, in order to pre-heat or pre-cool the ventilation air, in winter and summer, respectively. This is particularly interesting in applications for industrial, commercial and education buildings where keeping the indoor air quality under control is extremely important. Experimental measurements show that, throughout the year, the outside air temperature fluctuations are mitigated at sufficient ground depth (about 3 m because of the high thermal inertia of the soil, the ground temperature is relatively constant and instead higher than that of the outside air in winter and lower in summer. The study aims to numerically investigate the behavior of HAGHE by varying the air flow rate and soil conductivity in unsteady conditions by using annual weather data of South-East Italy. The analysis shows that, in warm climates, the HAGHE brings a real advantage for only a few hours daily in winter, while it shows significant benefits in the summer for the cooling of ventilation air up to several temperature degrees, already by a short pipe.

  16. Modeling of Air Temperature for Heat Exchange due to Vertical Turbulence and Horizontal Air Flow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Lei; MENG Qing-lin

    2009-01-01

    In order to calculate the air temperature of the near surface layer in urban environment,the Sur-face layer air was divided into several layers in the vertical direction,and some energy bakmce equations were de-veloped for each air layer,in which the heat exchange due to vertical turbulence and horizontal air flow was tak-en into account.Then,the vertical temperature distribution of the surface layer air was obtained through the coupled calculation using the energy balance equations of underlying surfaces and building walls.Moreover,the measured air temperatures in a small area (with a horizontal scale of less than 500 m) and a large area (with ahorizontal scale of more than 1000 m) in Guangzhou in summer were used to validate the proposed model.The calculated results agree well with the measured ones,with a maximum relative error of 4.18%.It is thus con-cluded that the proposed model is a high-accuracy method to theoretically analyze the urban heat island and the thermal environment.

  17. HEDGER BEHAVIOUR AND ITS IMPACT ON ORDER FLOW AND EXCHANGE RATE ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skoupil Lubomír

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces the author’s original model which describes the main behavioural traits of the foreign exchange hedger who is trying to minimise her FX market risk exposure and secure foreign currency liquidity, in order to be able to settle her liabilities in a  timely manner. This behaviour is then analysed in the context of several exogenous shocks to prices and exchange rates and implications of how order flow and exchange rates react to this behaviour are drawn based on the theoretical framework. In Chapter 2, the conclusions on expected patterns in exchange rate evolution reached in the theoretical part are tested using the fuzzy clustering technique. The hypotheses reached in the theoretical section were partially supported by the empirical analysis: some of the expected patterns were revealed by the data during shock periods of prices of Brent Oil, Dow Jones Industrial Index, Standard and Poor’s 500 and four currency pairs (EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, EURCZK

  18. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  19. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  20. THE IMPACT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE ON THE COMMERCIALS FLOWS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela IAVORSCHI

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The liberalization of capital movements between states and of the trade of goods and services, are one of the most important phenomena in the current world economy. The purpose of the present study, in the case of Romania, is to answer the question whether the interventions by means of the exchange rate of the national currency contributes to the fluidization and improvement of the commercial trades. The study demonstrates that the leu devaluation does not lead to a substantial increase of the exports. As a mechanism of influence of the commercials flows, the exchange rate has a short-term influence and the economy requires structural reforms, meant to stimulate the growth of the economic competitiveness.

  1. Hybrid empirical mode decomposition- ARIMA for forecasting exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadan, Siti Sarah; Shabri, Ani; Ismail, Shuhaida

    2015-02-01

    This paper studied the forecasting of monthly Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)/ United State Dollar (USD) exchange rates using the hybrid of two methods which are the empirical model decomposition (EMD) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). MYR is pegged to USD during the Asian financial crisis causing the exchange rates are fixed to 3.800 from 2nd of September 1998 until 21st of July 2005. Thus, the chosen data in this paper is the post-July 2005 data, starting from August 2005 to July 2010. The comparative study using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) showed that the EMD-ARIMA outperformed the single-ARIMA and the random walk benchmark model.

  2. Black Market Exchange Rate versus the Official Rate in Testing the PPP: An Application of a Non-Linear Test

    OpenAIRE

    Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee; Altin Tanku

    2007-01-01

    Due to foreign exchange controls in many developing countries, there is a black market for foreign exchange. Since the black market exchange rates are good proxies for the floating exchange rates, they provide relatively more support for the purchasing power parity theory (PPP). In this paper, we show that in a majority of the developing countries the adjustment of relative prices and the nominal black market exchange rate is on a non-linear stationary process, implying that the PPP holds eve...

  3. "A Regime Switching Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-through"

    OpenAIRE

    Kólver Hernández; Asli Leblebicioglu

    2008-01-01

    We investigate changes in the pricing policies of exporters, including changes in the exchange rate pass-through elasticity, and changes in the elasticities of variables that affect the firm’s markup. We set up a theoretical model of optimal export pricing in order to illustrate how changes in the pass-through elasticity can emerge together with changes in other elasticities in the pricing policy. Based on our theoretical formulation, we empirically study changes in all the elasticities that ...

  4. Exchange rate system and policy in the present world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubišić Zoran

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime is important, not only in terms of its effect on trade flows, but also with respect to inflation expectations. Countries facing disinflation may find that pegs regimes are more appropriate solution. But where the trade balance account is significantly deteriorated and growth has been sluggish, a more flexible regime might be called for. The natural classification in eighties and early nineties suggests that intermediate regimes may provide important advantages – to capture some of the benefits of both extremes while avoiding many of the costs. However today many experts predicted that exchange rate regimes would move in a "bipolar" manner to the extremes of "hard" pegs or free floats. An increasing number of countries did announce their intent to allow greater exchange rate flexibility. But, in practice, countries had a "fear of floating ". Distinction is made among advanced, emerging and other developing countries. Emerging markets have stronger links to international capital markets than do other developing economies. Thus, while non-emerging market developing economies may gain credibility through pegging their exchange rates, emerging markets find it harder to do so and could benefit from investing in "learning to float". More advanced economies with their access to international capital market are best positioned to enjoy the benefits of flexibility. It is found that the proportion of countries adopting intermediate regimes has indeed been shrinking in favor of greater flexibility or greater fixity, especially for countries more integrated with international markets. But, there is no final conclusion on the idea that intermediate regimes will dissapear.

  5. MODELING EXCHANGE RATES USING ARCH FAMILY OF MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ştefan Cristian CIUCU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, after a brief literature review, the RON / EURO exchange rate time series over the 03.01.2005 - 05.02.2015 time period is analyzed. After checking the stationarity of the data - ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH models will be developed and compared. Next the best model is chosen and the serial correlation and the Jarque-Bera test are further analyzed with various conclusions being drawn.

  6. Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate-Current Account Nexus

    OpenAIRE

    Jun Il Kim

    2007-01-01

    By using a simple intertemporal model of the current account, I show that the exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance would ceteris paribus be smaller for countries with higher government spending ratios (relative to GDP) and with more limited scope for private consumption smoothing. This finding may have important implications for the design of adjustment programs and for resolving current global imbalances. It could also help explain and reconcile mixed empirical findings on trade ela...

  7. International exchange rate dynamics and purchasing power parity

    OpenAIRE

    Beirne, John

    2010-01-01

    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University. This thesis provides evidence in favour of the long-run validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) using primarily a linear error correction framework. Through an examination of PPP where proportionality and symmetry are implicitly imposed, it is shown that a selection of twelve EU real exchange rates is stationary on a univariate basis. The contribution here is based on the reconciliation of ...

  8. Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating

    OpenAIRE

    Michele Cavallo; Kate Kisselev; Fabrizio Perri; Nouriel Roubini

    2004-01-01

    Currency crises are usually associated with large nominal and real depreciations. In some countries depreciations are perceived to be very costly (‘fear of floating’). In this paper we try to understand the reasons behind this fear. We first look at episodes of currency crises in the 1990s and establish that countries entering a crisis with high levels of foreign debt tend to experience large real exchange rate overshooting (devaluation in excess of the long run equilibrium level) and large o...

  9. Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank...

  10. An experimental investigation on air-side performances of finned tube heat exchangers for indirect air-cooling tower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Du Xueping

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A tremendous quantity of water can be saved if the air cooling system is used, comparing with the ordinary water-cooling technology. In this study, two kinds of finned tube heat exchangers in an indirect air-cooling tower are experimentally studied, which are a plain finned oval-tube heat exchanger and a wavy-finned flat-tube heat exchanger in a cross flow of air. Four different air inlet angles (90°, 60 °, 45°, and 30° are tested separately to obtain the heat transfer and resistance performance. Then the air-side experimental correlations of the Nusselt number and friction factor are acquired. The comprehensive heat transfer performances for two finned tube heat exchangers under four air inlet angles are compared. For the plain finned oval-tube heat exchanger, the vertical angle (90° has the worst performance while 45° and 30° has the best performance at small ReDc and at large ReDc, respectively. For the wavy-finned flat-tube heat exchanger, the worst performance occurred at 60°, while the best performance occurred at 45° and 90° at small ReDc and at large ReDc, respectively. From the comparative results, it can be found that the air inlet angle has completely different effects on the comprehensive heat transfer performance for the heat exchangers with different structures.

  11. Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, John A.; Dahl, Christian Møller; Osler, Carol L.

    of currency markets, it accurately reflects the constraints and objectives faced by the major participants, and it fits key stylized facts concerning returns and order flow. With respect to macroeconomics, the model is consistent with most of the major puzzles that have emerged under floating rates.......Recent research has revealed a wealth of information about the microeconomics of currency markets and thus the determination of exchange rates at short horizons. This information is valuable to us as scientists since, like evidence of macroeconomic regularities, it can provide critical guidance...

  12. Queueing theoretical analysis of foreign currency exchange rates

    CERN Document Server

    Inoue, J; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Sazuka, Naoya

    2006-01-01

    We propose a useful approach to investigate statistical properties of foreign currency exchange rates. Our approach is based on queueing theory, especially, the so-called renewal-reward theorem. For first passage processes of the Sony bank USD/JPY exchange rate, we evaluate the average waiting time which is defined as the average time for customers to wait until the next rate change from any time point when they want to check the rate, for example, when they login to their computer systems. We find that the assumption of exponential distribution on the first passage process should be rejected and a Weibull distribution seems to be more suitable to explain the stochastic process of the Sony bank rate. Our approach also enables us to evaluate the expected reward for customers, namely, one can predict how long customers wait and how much reward they obtain by the next price change after they login to the computer systems. We check the validity by comparing our prediction with empirical data analysis.

  13. 26 CFR 1.989(b)-1 - Definition of weighted average exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 10 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Definition of weighted average exchange rate. 1... average exchange rate. For purposes of section 989(b)(3) and (4), the term “weighted average exchange rate” means the simple average of the daily exchange rates (determined by reference to a qualified source...

  14. Oil Prices and Interest Rates: Do They Determine the Exchange Rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, I. A.; Old, J. L.

    1986-01-01

    Argues that the relationship between the British pound sterling, interest rates, and oil prices has been overemphasized by economic commentators because they ignored a basic economic theory about the determination of the exchange rate. Provides an example and suggestions for follow up instruction. (Author/JDH)

  15. Testing of empirical grounds for theoretical models of real exchange rate: research of real exchange rate between RSD and Euro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Predrag Petrović

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this research holds the most important determinants of real exchange rate covered by various theoretical models. The empirical testing was carried out on the real exchange rate between RSD and Euro for the period from January 2007 to December 2010, which was significantly imposed by availability of consistent time series. The research pertains to five basic model specifications and is based on the testing of time series cointegration by applying Johansen and Engle-Granger’s test. The obtained results have shown that the observed models do not have grounds in empirical data. Time series figuring in models are not cointegrated, and besides that, the estimated cointegration coefficients have signs opposite to the expected ones in large number of cases. In our opinion, the reasons for such findings can be found in the fact that used time series are quite short, i.e. they pertain to the period of only four years, as well as that prices of some significant services are still under the administrative control. Still, despite the aforementioned lacks, we think that our findings can be accepted as preliminary knowledge about the ability of the observed models to explain the dynamics of real exchange rate between RSD and Euro.

  16. Exchange Rate Determination in Natural Resources-Rich Economies Exchange Rate Determination in Natural Resources-Rich Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón López

    1989-03-01

    Full Text Available Exchange Rate Determination in Natural Resources-Rich Economies This paper deals with the role of natural resources in the process of determination of the real exchange rate within the context of a resource-based sector that is important within the economy and heavily integrated with other sectors. In so doing, the article tries to shed some ligth on questions like: How does the effectiveness of nominal devaluation-in promoting real devaluation in a resource-rich economy compare with that in resource-poor economies? What are the implications for the responsiveness of trade flows to devaluation of explicitly considering a natural resource-based sector? Is devaluation more likely to be contractionary in a resource-rich economy rather than in a economy that does not depend on natural resources? How do changes in resource management policies (i.e., extraction taxes affect the real exchange rate, trade balance and real income in the short run and long run? How have these results been affected by whether the resource is exploited under private property or under common property?

  17. Air-side Particulate Fouling of Microchannel Heat Exchangers: Experimental Comparison of Air-Side Pressure Drop and Heat Transfer with Plate-Fin Heat Exchanger

    OpenAIRE

    Bell, Ian; Groll, Eckhard

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the air-side pressure drop and heat transfer performance of plate-fin and microchannel coils were tested under clean and fouled conditions. The heat exchangers were tested with two different types of dust, ASHRAE Standard Dust and Arizona Road Test Dust. The ASHRAE Standard Dust was found to have a very significant impact on the pressure drop of the microchannel heat exchanger, increasing the air-side pressure drop of the microchannel heat exchanger over 200% for a dust injec...

  18. Bacterioneuston control of air-water methane exchange determined with a laboratory gas exchange tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upstill-Goddard, Robert C.; Frost, Thomas; Henry, Gordon R.; Franklin, Mark; Murrell, J. Colin; Owens, Nicholas J. P.

    2003-12-01

    The apparent transfer velocities (kw) of CH4, N2O, and SF6 were determined for gas invasion and evasion in a closed laboratory exchange tank. Tank water (pure Milli-RO® water or artificial seawater prepared in Milli-RO®) and/or tank air gas compositions were adjusted, with monitoring of subsequent gas transfer by gas chromatography. Derived kw was converted to "apparent k600," the value for CO2 in freshwater at 20°C. For CH4, analytical constraints precluded estimating apparent k600 based on tank air measurements. In some experiments we added strains of live methanotrophs. In others we added chemically deactivated methanotrophs, non-CH4 oxidizers (Vibrio), or bacterially associated surfactants, as controls. For all individual controls, apparent k600 estimated from CH4, N2O, or SF6 was indistinguishable. However, invasive estimates always exceeded evasive estimates, implying some control of gas invasion by bubbles. Estimates of apparent k600 differed significantly between methanotroph strains, possibly reflecting species-specific surfactant release. For individual strains during gas invasion, apparent k600 estimated from CH4, N2O, or SF6 was indistinguishable, whereas during gas evasion, k600-CH4 was significantly higher than either k600-N2O or k600-SF6, which were identical. Hence evasive k600-CH4/k600-SF6 was always significantly above unity, whereas invasive k600-CH4/k600-SF6 was not significantly different from unity. Similarly, k600-CH4/k600-SF6 for the controls and k600-N2O/k600-SF6 for all experiments did not differ significantly from unity. Our results are consistent with active metabolic control of CH4 exchange by added methanotrophs in the tank microlayer, giving enhancements of ˜12 ± 10% for k600-CH4. Hence reactive trace gas fluxes determined by conventional tracer methods at sea may be in error, prompting a need for detailed study of the role of the sea surface microlayer in gas exchange.

  19. Exchange rate and fundamentals: the case of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo L. Moura

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting performance is tested for a broad set of empirical exchange rate models for an emerging economy with independently floating regime and inflation target monetary arrangement. Compared to the recent literature on out-of-sample exchange rate predictability, we include a more extensive set of models. We test vintage monetary models of the 1980's, exchange rate equilibrium models of the 1990's and a Taylor Rule based model. This last model assumes an endogenous monetary policy, where the Central Bank follows a Taylor rule reaction function to set interest rates. Our results show that Taylor Rule models and Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate models, the last one combining productivity differentials with portfolio balance effect, have superior predictive accuracy when compared to the random walk benchmark. Some out-of-sample predictability is also obtained with parsimonious models based on uncovered interest parity arguments.O desempenho de previsão para fora da amostra é testado para um amplo conjunto de modelos empíricos de taxa de câmbio em uma economia emergente com taxa de câmbio flutuante e regime de metas de inflação. Comparado à literatura recente de modelos de previsão da taxa de câmbio, nós incluímos um conjunto mais extenso de modelos. São testados modelos tradicionais da década de 1980, modelos de equilíbrio comportamental da taxa de câmbio dos anos de 1990 e um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor. Neste último, o modelo incorpora um função de reação do Banco Central, na qual a taxa de juros é definida de acordo com uma regra de Taylor. Nossos resultados demonstram que modelos de regra de Taylor e de equilíbrio comportamental da taxa de câmbio, este último combinando diferenciais de produtividade com ajustes de carteira, têm desempenho fora da amostra superior a um passeio aleatório. Evidências de poder de previsão também são obtidas para modelos parcimoniosos baseados em argumentos de paridade

  20. The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Rudan Wang; Bruce Morley; Javier Ordóñez

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop models of the Taylor rule and a Taylor rule based exchange rate model incorporating wealth effects, as represented by both asset prices and asset wealth. In addition these wealth effects are further divided into stock market and housing wealth. Using data for Australia, Sweden, UK and the US, the Taylor model is estimated and then used to forecast out-of-sample. The results suggest that the effects of the asset prices and wealth on the Taylor rule are mixed...

  1. Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    SATO Kiyotaka; SHIMIZU Junko; Nagendra SHRESTHA; Shajuan ZHANG

    2015-01-01

    This study constructs a monthly series of industry-specific real effective exchange rates (I-REERs) based on the producer price indices of nine Asian economies from 2001 to 2014. To check the usefulness of the I-REERs as a measurement of international price competitiveness, we calculated the aggregated I-REER (Avg-I-REER) and compared it with the REER published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS-REER). We found that in some Asian economies, the Avg-I-REER exhibited different movem...

  2. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  3. Injection of Helium 3 and SF{sub 6} in a lake for the determination of gaseous exchange rates at the water-air interface: implementation, analysis and experimental results; Injection d`helium-3 et SF{sub 6} en lac pour la determination des coefficients gazeux a l`interface eau-air: deploiement, analyse et resultats experimentaux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poisson, A. [Paris-6 Univ., 75 (France); Jean-Baptiste, P. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Direction des Sciences de la Matiere

    1994-12-31

    In order to study the hypothesis of an under-rating of the exchange velocity at the ocean-atmosphere interface that could explain the lack of CO{sub 2} in the global CO{sub 2} balance, an experiment was carried out in two lakes at the Kerguelen Islands where strong winds are common, in order to evaluate precisely the relation between the transfer coefficient and the wind velocity: {sup 3}He and SF{sub 6} tracers were injected in the lakes; concentration evolutions were recorded and results are shown to validate the above assumption. 6 figs., 1 tab., 9 refs.

  4. Parametric simulation and experimental analysis of earth air heat exchanger with solar air heating duct

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjeev Jakhar

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Earth air heat exchanger (EAHE systems are insufficient to meet the thermal comfort requirements in winter conditions. The low heating potential of such systems can be improved by integrating the system with solar air heating duct (SAHD. The aim of this paper is to present a model to estimate the heating potential for EAHE system with and without SAHD. The model is generated using TRNSYS 17 simulation tool and validated against experimental investigation on an experimental set-up in Ajmer, India. The experiment was done during the winter season, where the system was evaluated for different inlet flow velocities, length and depth of buried pipe. From the experimentation, it was observed that the depth of 3.7 m is sufficient for pipe burial and the 34 m length of pipe is sufficient to get optimum EAHE outlet temperature. It is also observed that increase in flow velocity results in drop in EAHE outlet temperature, while room temperature is found to increase for higher velocities (5 m/s. The COP of the system also increased up to 6.304 when assisted with solar air heating duct. The results obtained from the experiment data are in good agreement with simulated results within the variation of up to 7.9%.

  5. Dynamic model of counter flow air to air heat exchanger for comfort ventilation with condensation and frost formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Toke Rammer; Rose, Jørgen; Kragh, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    must be calculated under conditions with condensation and freezing. This article presents a dynamic model of a counter flow air to air heat exchanger taking into account condensation and freezing and melting of ice. The model is implemented in Simulink and results are compared to measurements...

  6. Novel approach for evaluation of air change rate in naturally ventilated occupied spaces based on metabolic CO2 time variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Markov, Detelin G.

    2014-01-01

    , air-tight space, constant indoor pressure and temperature. The proposed approach for ACR evaluation can be applied to time intervals with any length, even with varying parameters of both indoor and outdoor air, in which metabolic CO2 generation rate is known and constant. This approach makes possible......IAQ in many residential buildings relies on non-organized natural ventilation. Accurate evaluation of air change rate (ACR) in this situation is difficult due to the nature of the phenomenon - intermittent infiltration-exfiltration periods of mass exchange between the room air and the outdoor air...

  7. Helium-air exchange flow through an opening with a partition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The helium-air exchange flow through a small vertical opening with a partition was experimentally investigated. The vertical partition was aligned with the center line of the small opening to evaluate the effects of the multiple openings. The dimensionless exchange flow rates, i.e., Froude numbers, were experimentally obtained with several opening ratios (H1/Df), i.e., the ratio of the height to the effective diameter of the opening. In the case of low opening ratios (H1/Df 1/Df ≥ 0.75), the measured Froude numbers for the multiple openings were larger than those for the single opening, because the upward and downward flows were separated by the vertical partition. Based on the balance between the pressure losses in the openings and the driving force due to density difference, the exchange flow rate was calculated, and found to agree qualitatively with the measured Froude numbers. The effect of the upward and downward flow interaction at the exit of the opening was found to play an important role in the prediction of the Froude number. (author)

  8. Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Harald Hau; Hélène Rey

    2004-01-01

    We explore whether the pattern of international equity returns, equity portfolio flows, and exchange rate returns are consistent with the hypothesis that (unhedged) global investors rebalance their portfolio in order to limit their exchange rate exposure when there are (1) relative equity return; and (2) exchange rate shocks. We also explore whether (3) equity flow shocks influence the exchange rates and relative equity prices. In the estimation of the VAR system we do not impose any causal o...

  9. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary ...

  10. ECB Policy Response to the Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Demir, Ishak

    2012-01-01

    The exchange rate is an important part of transmission mechanism in the determination of monetary policy because movements in the exchange rate have significant effect on the macroeconomy. Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the movements in exchange rate has some difficulties due to the simultaneous response of monetary policy on the exchange rate and the possibility that both variables respond several other variables. This study will use an identification method based on the hetero...

  11. Purchasing Power Parity and Real Exchange Rates in Case of Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Murat Doganlar; Mehmet Ozmen

    2000-01-01

    Purchasing power parity states that changes in the nominal exchange rates should reflect the inflation differences. This indicates that if nominal exchange rate changes reflect home and foreign inflation differences, then real exchange rate should remain unchanged. Recent time series econometrics techniques can test this proposal. If the real exchange rate series contain a unit root, then the series are told to be nonstationary which means that PPP (Purchasing power parity) does not hold. Aug...

  12. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    OpenAIRE

    Trifonova, Silvia; Kovachevich, Milena

    2016-01-01

    The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of...

  13. Real Shocks and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: In the Case of Wage Rigidity

    OpenAIRE

    Hee-Ho Kim; John Dutton

    1997-01-01

    Using a simple exchange rate model, this paper investigates the role of unemployment in determining the ejfects of different shocks on the real exchange rate. The presence of unenioloyment in an economy is shown to significantly alter the relationship between real variables and the real exchange rate. This implies that the generally believed traditional propositions concerning real shocks and the exchange rate might not be valid anymore in the economy with unemployment and thus, that l ignori...

  14. Exchange Rate Instability: Japan's Micro-Macro Experiences and Implications for China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mamoru Ishida

    2006-01-01

    Since 1985, the yen-dollar exchange rates repeatedly fluctuated and climbed to a level that could not be justified by economic fundamentals. The impacts on the Japanese economy were serious and far-reaching.Since 21 July 2005, China has been moving toward a more flexible exchange rate regime. Keeping RMB exchange rates basically stable and providing Chinese industries with means to hedge exchange rate risks are essential for China's sound economic development.

  15. The changing role of the exchange rate in a globalised economy.

    OpenAIRE

    Filippo di Mauro; Rasmus Rueffer; Irina Bunda

    2008-01-01

    In addition to its direct effects on the global trading and production structure, the ongoing process of globalisation may have important implications for the interaction of exchange rates and the overall economy. This paper presents evidence regarding possible changes in the role of exchange rates in a more globalised economy. First, it analyses the link between exchange rates and prices, showing that there is at most a moderate decline in exchange rate pass-through for the euro area. Next, ...

  16. Exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises – results of a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Bodnár, Katalin

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, I examine the exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises from a financial stability perspective. In connection with the recent growth in FX loans to enterprises, the central bank assesses the vulnerability of the banks' loan portfolio to changes in the exchange rate. To collect company-level data, two surveys were carried out on exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk management practices. The first survey carried out in 2005 showed that the majority of small and med...

  17. Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries

    OpenAIRE

    Juan Carlos Berganza; Carmen Broto

    2011-01-01

    Emerging economies with inflation targets (IT) face a dilemma between fulflling the theoretical conditions of "strict IT", which implies a fully flexible exchange rate, or applying a "flexible IT", which entails a de facto managed floating exchange rate with forex interventions to moderate exchange rate volatility. Using a panel data model for 37 countries we find that, although IT lead to higher exchange rate instability than alternative regimes, forex interventions in some IT countries have...

  18. Quasi-steady-state model of a counter-flow air-to-air heat-exchanger with phase change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, Joergen; Nielsen, Toke Rammer; Kragh, Jesper; Svendsen, Svend [Department of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Brovej, Building 118, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

    2008-05-15

    Using mechanical ventilation with highly efficient heat-recovery in northern European or arctic climates is a very efficient way of reducing the energy use for heating in buildings. However, it also presents a series of problems concerning condensation and frost formation in the heat-exchanger. Developing highly efficient heat-exchangers and strategies to avoid/remove frost formation implies the use of detailed models to predict and evaluate different heat-exchanger designs and strategies. This paper presents a quasi-steady-state model of a counter-flow air-to-air heat-exchanger that takes into account the effects of condensation and frost formation. The model is developed as an Excel spreadsheet, and specific results are compared with laboratory measurements. As an example, the model is used to determine the most energy-efficient control strategy for a specific heat-exchanger under northern European and arctic climate conditions. (author)

  19. A firm-specific exposure analyis of the exchange-rate exposure of Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. de Jong; J. Ligterink; V. Macrae

    2006-01-01

    We examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50 per cent of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a depreciati

  20. A Firm-Specific Analysis of the Exchange-Rate Exposure of Dutch Firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. de Jong (Abe); J. Ligterink; V. Macrae

    2002-01-01

    textabstractWe examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50% of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a deprec

  1. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates : How to Solve the Puzzles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US do

  2. A simple method for air/sea gas exchange measurement in mesocosms and its application in carbon budgeting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Czerny

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Mesocosms as large experimental vessels principally provide the opportunity of performing elemental budget calculations e.g. to derive net biological turnover rates. However, the system is in most cases not closed at the water surface and gases can exchange with the atmosphere. Previous attempts to budget carbon pools in mesocosms relied on educated guesses concerning the exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere. Nevertheless, net primary production rates derived from these budget calculations were, despite large uncertainties in air/sea gas exchange, often more reasonable than cumulative extrapolations of bioassays. While bioassays have limitations representing the full spectrum of trophic levels and abiotic conditions inside the mesocosms, calculating dissolved inorganic carbon uptake inside the mesocosms has the potential to deliver net community production rates representative of the enclosed system. Here, we present a simple method for precise determination of air/sea gas exchange velocities in mesocosms using N2O as a deliberate tracer. Beside the application for carbon budgeting, exchange velocities can be used to calculate exchange rates of any gas of known concentration, e.g. to calculate aquatic production rates of climate relevant trace gases. Using an arctic (Kiel Off Shore Mesocosms for future Ocean Simulation mesocosm experiment as an exemplary dataset, it is shown that application of the presented method largely improves accuracy of carbon budget estimates. Methodology of manipulation, measurement, data processing and conversion to CO2 fluxes are explained. A theoretical discussion of prerequisites for precise gas exchange measurements provides a guideline for the applicability of the method under various experimental conditions.

  3. Solvent Exchange in Liquid Methanol and Rate Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dang, Liem X.; Schenter, Gregory K.

    2016-01-01

    To enhance our understanding of the solvent exchange mechanism in liquid methanol, we report a systematic study of this process using molecular dynamics simulations. We use transition state theory, the Impey-Madden-McDonald method, the reactive flux method, and Grote-Hynes theory to compute the rate constants for this process. Solvent coupling was found to dominate, resulting in a significantly small transmission coefficient. We predict a positive activation volume for the methanol exchange process. The essential features of the dynamics of the system as well as the pressure dependence are recovered from a Generalized Langevin Equation description of the dynamics. We find that the dynamics and response to anharmonicity can be decomposed into two time regimes, one corresponding to short time response (< 0.1 ps) and long time response (> 5 ps). An effective characterization of the process results from launching dynamics from the planar hypersurface corresponding to Grote-Hynes theory. This results in improved numerical convergence of correlation functions. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences. The calculations were carried out using computer resources provided by the Office of Basic Energy Sciences.

  4. Liaison of Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Variables: A Case Study of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aneel Salman

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate plays a significant role in the economic growth of a country because it has also a close relationship to some major macroeconomic variables like Gross Domestic Product (GDP, interest rate, current account and inflation etc. All these variables are adversely affected by uncertainty or fluctuations in exchange rate. The objective of this paper was to find out the relationship between the exchange rate and other above mentioned macroeconomic variables. The paper not only described the relationship but also defined the nature of the relationship between the selected variables. The results showed that exchange rate has a long run relationship to GDP, inflation, interest rate and current account. Granger Causality test concluded that there was unidirectional causal relationship between exchange rate and GDP and the direction of causal relationship run from exchange rate to GDP. There were also some policy implications suggested for the stability in exchange rate and removing the adverse effects of uncertainty in Pakistan.

  5. A study of energy exchange in earth air tubes

    OpenAIRE

    Bexell, Jonas; Bjureus, Erik

    2010-01-01

    As energy issues today are of great interest the writers of this report have done a research about an alternative to save energy by reducing the cost of preheating the outdoor air. By taking the outdoor air to the ventilation system via a pipe buried in the ground, you can preheat the outdoor air, which, in turn, could save energy. By doing this you do not have to bring as much energy to preheat the supply air, to get the desired supply air temperature. The report also explains if the earth a...

  6. Low GWP Refrigerants Modelling Study for a Room Air Conditioner Having Microchannel Heat Exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Bo [ORNL; Bhandari, Mahabir S [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Microchannel heat exchangers (MHX) have found great successes in residential and commercial air conditioning applications, being compact heat exchangers, to reduce refrigerant charge and material cost. This investigation aims to extend the application of MHXs in split, room air conditioners (RAC), per fundamental heat exchanger and system modelling. For this paper, microchannel condenser and evaporator models were developed, using a segment-to-segment modelling approach. The microchannel heat exchanger models were integrated to a system design model. The system model is able to predict the performance indices, such as cooling capacity, efficiency, sensible heat ratio, etc. Using the calibrated system and heat exchanger models, we evaluated numerous low GWP (global warming potential) refrigerants. The predicted system performance indices, e.g. cooling efficiency, compressor discharge temperature, and required compressor displacement volume etc., are compared. Suitable replacements for R22 and R-410A for the room air conditioner application are recommended.

  7. Macroeconomic Aspects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in the Central European Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Rajmund MIRDALA

    2012-01-01

    Exchange rate unexpected fluctuations determine economic development of countries the way quite similar to any other type of exogenous shocks. Unpredicted volatility in exchange rate short-run path affects macroeconomic performance the way that may be a subject of academic as well as economic policy discussions. Overall exposure of countries to negative implications of exchange rate volatility represents one of the areas of empirical investigations related to fixed versus flexible exchange ra...

  8. What Is Its Purpose?——"Advancing RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism"

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yao Yujie; You Zhixin; Wang Tao

    2010-01-01

    Spokesperson from People's Bank of China said on June 19th, "further advance the reform in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and strengthen the flex-ibility of RMB exchange rate." This is the first time for China central bank give a clear attitude on reform in RMB exchange rate, which attracts great attention for global market. Does strengthening the flexibility of RMB exchange rate mean that RMB will appreciate again? Why the central bank announces the news at this moment? How to choose the time for the reform in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism?

  9. Financial crisis and exchange rates in emerging economies: An empirical analysis using PPP-UIP-Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Rashid

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the effects of 2008 financial crisis on exchange rate determination in PPP-UIP framework for four emerging countries, using monthly date over the period 1981-2012. The results suggest that the recent financial crisis led to change the role of exchange rate determinants in exchange rate determination. The findings also reveal that the effects of financial crisis on the exchange rate are different in all the four emerging economies. The findings of the study are of significant for policy makers in designing effective policies in order to reduce the effects of financial crisis on exchange rates.

  10. A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF ELEMENTAL MERCURY AIR/WATER EXCHANGE PARTNERS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although evasion of elemental mercury from aquatic systems can significantly deplete net mercury accumulation resulting from atmospheric deposition, the current ability to model elemental mercury air/water exchange is limited by uncertainties in our understanding of all gaseous a...

  11. Air-sea exchanges of materials in the Indian Ocean: Concerns and strategies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.

    Exchanges of materials at the air-sea interface are linked to earth's heat budget and the natural balance is being increasingly affected by human activities. Three major issues of national concern with respect to changes in oceanic and atmospheric...

  12. Evaluation of a regional air-quality model with bidirectional NH3 exchange coupled to an agroecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bash, J. O.; Cooter, E. J.; Dennis, R. L.; Walker, J. T.; Pleim, J. E.

    2013-03-01

    Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) is the primary atmospheric base and an important precursor for inorganic particulate matter and when deposited NH3 contributes to surface water eutrophication, soil acidification and decline in species biodiversity. Flux measurements indicate that the air-surface exchange of NH3 is bidirectional. However, the effects of bidirectional exchange, soil biogeochemistry and human activity are not parameterized in air quality models. The US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Community Multiscale Air-Quality (CMAQ) model with bidirectional NH3 exchange has been coupled with the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agroecosystem model. The coupled CMAQ-EPIC model relies on EPIC fertilization timing, rate and composition while CMAQ models the soil ammonium (NH4+) pool by conserving the ammonium mass due to fertilization, evasion, deposition, and nitrification processes. This mechanistically coupled modeling system reduced the biases and error in NHx (NH3 + NH4+) wet deposition and in ambient aerosol concentrations in an annual 2002 Continental US (CONUS) domain simulation when compared to a 2002 annual simulation of CMAQ without bidirectional exchange. Fertilizer emissions estimated in CMAQ 5.0 with bidirectional exchange exhibits markedly different seasonal dynamics than the US EPA's National Emissions Inventory (NEI), with lower emissions in the spring and fall and higher emissions in July.

  13. Air-water gas exchange and CO2 flux in a mangrove-dominated estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, David T.; Ferrón, Sara; Engel, Victor C.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Barr, Jordan G.

    2014-01-01

    forests are highly productive ecosystems, but the fate of mangrove-derived carbon remains uncertain. Part of that uncertainty stems from the fact that gas transfer velocities in mangrove-surrounded waters are not well determined, leading to uncertainty in air-water CO2 fluxes. Two SF6 tracer release experiments were conducted to determine gas transfer velocities (k(600) = 8.3 ± 0.4 and 8.1 ± 0.6 cm h-1), along with simultaneous measurements of pCO2 to determine the air-water CO2 fluxes from Shark River, Florida (232.11 ± 23.69 and 171.13 ± 20.28 mmol C m-2 d-1), an estuary within the largest contiguous mangrove forest in North America. The gas transfer velocity results are consistent with turbulent kinetic energy dissipation measurements, indicating a higher rate of turbulence and gas exchange than predicted by commonly used wind speed/gas exchange parameterizations. The results have important implications for carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems.

  14. Air-water gas exchange and CO2 flux in a mangrove-dominated estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, David T.; Ferrón, Sara; Engel, Victor C.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Barr, Jordan G.

    2014-01-01

    Mangrove forests are highly productive ecosystems, but the fate of mangrove-derived carbon remains uncertain. Part of that uncertainty stems from the fact that gas transfer velocities in mangrove-surrounded waters are not well determined, leading to uncertainty in air-water CO2 fluxes. Two SF6 tracer release experiments were conducted to determine gas transfer velocities (k(600) = 8.3 ± 0.4 and 8.1 ± 0.6 cm h−1), along with simultaneous measurements of pCO2 to determine the air-water CO2 fluxes from Shark River, Florida (232.11 ± 23.69 and 171.13 ± 20.28 mmol C m−2 d−1), an estuary within the largest contiguous mangrove forest in North America. The gas transfer velocity results are consistent with turbulent kinetic energy dissipation measurements, indicating a higher rate of turbulence and gas exchange than predicted by commonly used wind speed/gas exchange parameterizations. The results have important implications for carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems.

  15. Surfactant control of air-sea gas exchange across contrasting biogeochemical regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Ryan; Schneider-Zapp, Klaus; Upstill-Goddard, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Air-sea gas exchange is important to the global partitioning of CO2.Exchange fluxes are products of an air-sea gas concentration difference, ΔC, and a gas transfer velocity, kw. The latter is controlled by the rate of turbulent diffusion at the air-sea interface but it cannot be directly measured and has a high uncertainty that is now considered one of the greatest challenges to quantifying net global air-sea CO2 exchange ...(Takahashi et al., 2009). One important control on kw is exerted by sea surface surfactants that arise both naturally from biological processes and through anthropogenic activity. They influence gas exchange in two fundamental ways: as a monolayer physical barrier and through modifying sea surface hydrodynamics and hence turbulent energy transfer. These effects have been demonstrated in the laboratory with artificial surfactants ...(Bock et al., 1999; Goldman et al., 1988) and through purposeful surfactant releases in coastal waters .(.).........().(Brockmann et al., 1982) and in the open ocean (Salter et al., 2011). Suppression of kwin these field experiments was ~5-55%. While changes in both total surfactant concentration and the composition of the natural surfactant pool might be expected to impact kw, the required in-situ studies are lacking. New data collected from the coastal North Sea in 2012-2013 shows significant spatio-temporal variability in the surfactant activity of organic matter within the sea surface microlayer that ranges from 0.07-0.94 mg/L T-X-100 (AC voltammetry). The surfactant activities show a strong winter/summer seasonal bias and general decrease in concentration with increasing distance from the coastline possibly associated with changing terrestrial vs. phytoplankton sources. Gas exchange experiments of this seawater using a novel laboratory tank and gas tracers (CH4 and SF6) demonstrate a 12-45% reduction in kw compared to surfactant-free water. Seasonally there is higher gas exchange suppression in the summer

  16. Empirical evidence against the exchange rate anomaly: the Australian case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis A. Gil-Alana

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Though there is widespread agreement that the logarithmic spot and forward rates are both integrated of order one (I(1 variables, so that their corresponding returns are I(0 stationary, it has been recently claimed that they may be long memory. In this article, we examine this hypothesis by means of fractional integration techniques. The results based on parametric and semiparametric tests show that though fractional degrees of integration are plausible alternatives, the confidence intervals include the unit root case in both series. In addition, the hypothesis of unbiasedness of the forward rate as a forecaster for the future spot rate cannot be rejected for the Australian daily exchange rate market.Embora haja um acordo difundido de que o ponto logarítmico e as taxas para frente são ambas integradas de variáveis da ordem um (I(1, de modo que seus retornos correspondentes sejam I(0 estacionário, tem-se reivindicado recentemente que elas podem ser memória longa. Neste artigo, examinamos esta hipótese por meio do uso de técnicas fracionárias de integração. Os resultados baseados em testes paramétricos e semiparametricos mostram que embora os graus fracionários de integração sejam alternativas plausíveis, os intervalos de confiança incluem o caso da raiz unitária em ambas as séries. Além disso, a hipótese de não viés da taxa para frente como um preditor para a taxa a vista futura não pode ser rejeitada para o caso australiano.

  17. Quantifying air-sea gas exchange using noble gases in a coastal upwelling zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, C. C.; Stanley, R. H. R.; Nicholson, D. P.; Squibb, M. E.

    2016-05-01

    The diffusive and bubble-mediated components of air-sea gas exchange can be quantified separately using time-series measurements of a suite of dissolved inert gases. We have evaluated the performance of four published air-sea gas exchange parameterizations using a five-day time-series of dissolved He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe concentration in Monterey Bay, CA. We constructed a vertical model including surface air-sea gas exchange and vertical diffusion. Diffusivity was measured throughout the cruise from profiles of turbulent microstructure. We corrected the mixed layer gas concentrations for an upwelling event that occurred partway through the cruise. All tested parameterizations gave similar results for Ar, Kr, and Xe; their air-sea fluxes were dominated by diffusive gas exchange during our study. For He and Ne, which are less soluble, and therefore more sensitive to differences in the treatment of bubble-mediated exchange, the parameterizations gave widely different results with respect to the net gas exchange flux and the bubble flux. This study demonstrates the value of using a suite of inert gases, especially the lower solubility ones, to parameterize air-sea gas exchange.

  18. Exchange rate exposure of firms and the demand for foreign exchange derivatives in Brazil: did hedge or speculatiom matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines empirically how the demand of foreign exchange derivatives by Brazilian corporations is related to their exchange rate exposure. With the help of an original database of 74,567 contracts written from 1999 to 2002 between corporations and financial institutions, we were able to identify the corporations that speculated and the ones that hedged with foreign exchange derivatives during this period. Our results show that the exchange rate exposure is positively related to the foreign operational exposures for firms that speculated and negatively related for firms that hedged in 2002. For the other years of the sample period, speculation or hedge did not affect the relationship between the exchange rate exposure and the foreign operational exposure of firms.

  19. Impacts of air-sea exchange coefficients on snowfall events over the Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jung-Yoon; Kwon, Young Cheol

    2016-08-01

    Snowfall over the Korean Peninsula is mainly associated with air mass transformation by the fluxes across the air-sea interface during cold-air outbreaks over the warm Yellow Sea. The heat and momentum exchange coefficients in the surface flux parameterization are key parameters of flux calculations across the air-sea interface. This study investigates the effects of the air-sea exchange coefficients on the simulations of snowfall events over the Korean Peninsula using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two snowfall cases are selected for this study. One is a heavy snowfall event that took place on January 4, 2010, and the other is a light snowfall event that occurred on December 23-24, 2011. Several sensitivity tests are carried out with increased and decreased heat and momentum exchange coefficients. The domain-averaged precipitation is increased (decreased) with increased (decreased) heat exchange coefficient because the increased (decreased) surface heat flux leads to more (less) moist conditions in the low level of the atmosphere. On the other hand, the domain-averaged precipitation is decreased (increased) with increased (decreased) momentum exchange coefficient because the increased (decreased) momentum coefficient causes reduction (increase) of wind speed and heat flux. The variation of precipitation in the heat exchange coefficient experiments is much larger than that in the momentum exchange coefficient experiments because the change of heat flux has a more direct impact on moisture flux and snowfall amount, while the change of momentum flux has a rather indirect impact via wind speed changes. The low-pressure system is intensified and moves toward North when the heat exchange coefficient is increased because warming and moistening of the lower atmosphere contributes to destabilize the air mass, resulting in the change of precipitation pattern over the Korean Peninsula in the heat exchange coefficient experiments.

  20. Oral Pseudoephedrine Decreases the Rate of Trans-mucosal Nitrous Oxide Exchange for the Middle Ear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Miriam S.; Alper, Cuneyt M.; Martin, Brian S; Cullen Doyle, Brendan M.; Doyle, William J.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Determine if oral pretreatment with a vasoconstrictor decreases the blood to middle-ear exchange-rate of the perfusion-limited gas, Nitrous Oxide (N2O). Study Design Randomized, double-blind, crossover study. Methods Ten adult subjects with and 10 without past middle-ear disease completed paired experimental sessions, identical but for oral pretreatment with either pseudoephedrine HCL or lactose placebo. At each session, subjects were fitted with a non-rebreathing mask and breathed room air for 20 minutes (acclimation period), 50% N2O:50% O2 for 20 minutes (experimental period) and 100% O2 for 10 minutes (recovery period). Throughout, heart-rate, blood-pressure and O2 saturation were monitored and bilateral middle-ear pressures were recorded by tympanometry every minute. The primary outcome was the slope of the middle-ear pressure-time function for the experimental period which estimates the volume N2O exchange-rate. Using repeated measures ANOVA, the effects of Group (disease history), Treatment (active vs. placebo) and Period (1 vs. 2) on the recorded vital signs, and of Group, Treatment and Ear (left/right) on the middle-ear pressure-time slope were evaluated for statistical significance. Results Statistically significant effects of Period on O2 saturation (Period 2>Period 1) and of Treatment on heart-rate (Active>Placebo) were documented. Only Treatment was statistically significant for the middle-ear pressure-time slope with a shallower slope characterizing the active treatment session. Conclusion The volume exchange-rate across the middle-ear mucosa of perfusion-limited gases can be modulated pharmacologically. Theoretically, similar drugs can be used to reduce the requisite Eustachian tube opening efficiency for adequate middle-ear pressure regulation. PMID:26152838

  1. Processes of Ammonia Air-Surface Exchange in a Fertilized Zea Mays Canopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent incorporation of coupled soil biogeochemical and bi-directional NH3 air-surface exchange algorithms into regional air quality models holds promise for further reducing uncertainty in estimates of NH3 emissions from fertilized soils. While this advancement represents a sig...

  2. Extreme variations of air dose rates in east Fukushima.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akimoto, Kazuhiro

    2015-11-01

    This report analyses the data of air (ambient) dose rates measured at 164 points in eastern Fukushima during a period of half a year after 10 June 2011. It is found that at some locations the values decreased or increased extraordinarily although on average the overall dose rates decreased significantly faster than the theoretically predicted rate. Among them the nine most extreme points are selected and analysed. It is found that behind these extraordinary behaviours of air dose rates there exists the combination of wind/rain and artificial structures such as sloped pavements.

  3. A Comparison of the Monetary Model and Artificial Neural Networks in Exchange Rate Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Filiz Ozkan

    2012-01-01

    Exchange value is one of the significant tools for investors in decision making. Since exchange values are volatile and they change within short periods, investors need an effective method to minimize the risk. This study compares the prediction performances of artificial neural networks, which is recently being used as an effective tool of prediction, and the monetary model, which is one of the methods to predict structural exchange rates. In this study exchange rates of Turkish Lira against...

  4. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  5. Rate constants for chemical reactions in high-temperature nonequilibrium air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, R. L.

    1986-01-01

    In the nonequilibrium atmospheric chemistry regime that will be encountered by the proposed Aeroassisted Orbital Transfer Vehicle in the upper atmosphere, where air density is too low for thermal and chemical equilibrium to be maintained, the detailed high temperature air chemistry plays a critical role in defining radiative and convective heating loads. Although vibrational and electronic temperatures remain low (less than 15,000 K), rotational and translational temperatures may reach 50,000 K. Attention is presently given to the effects of multiple temperatures on the magnitudes of various chemical reaction rate constants, for the cases of both bimolecular exchange reactions and collisional excitation and dissociation reactions.

  6. Air-Cooled Heat Exchanger for High-Temperature Power Electronics: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waye, S. K.; Lustbader, J.; Musselman, M.; King, C.

    2015-05-06

    This work demonstrates a direct air-cooled heat exchanger strategy for high-temperature power electronic devices with an application specific to automotive traction drive inverters. We present experimental heat dissipation and system pressure curves versus flow rate for baseline and optimized sub-module assemblies containing two ceramic resistance heaters that provide device heat fluxes. The maximum allowable junction temperature was set to 175 deg.C. Results were extrapolated to the inverter scale and combined with balance-of-inverter components to estimate inverter power density and specific power. The results exceeded the goal of 12 kW/L and 12 kW/kg for power density and specific power, respectively.

  7. Micrometeorological Measurement of Fetch- and Atmospheric Stability-Dependent Air- Water Exchange of Legacy Semivolatile Organic Contaminants in Lake Superior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlinger, J. A.; Tobias, D. E.; Rowe, M. D.

    2008-12-01

    Coastal waters including the Laurentian Great Lakes are particularly susceptible to local, regional, and long- range transport and deposition of semivolatile organic contaminants (SOCs) as gases and/or associated with particles. Recently-marketed SOCs can be expected to undergo net deposition in surface waters, whereas legacy SOCs such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are likely to be at equilibrium with respect to air-water exchange, or, if atmospheric concentrations decrease through, e.g., policy implementation, to undergo net gas emission. SOC air-water exchange flux is usually estimated using the two-film model. This model describes molecular diffusion through the air and water films adjacent to the air-water interface. Air-water exchange flux is estimated as the product of SOC fugacity, typically based on on-shore gaseous concentration measurements, and a transfer coefficient, the latter which is estimated from SOC properties and environmental conditions. The transfer coefficient formulation commonly applied neglects resistance to exchange in the internal boundary layer under atmospherically stable conditions, and the use of on-shore gaseous concentration neglects fetch-dependent equilibration, both of which will tend to cause overestimation of flux magnitude. Thus, for legacy chemicals or in any highly contaminated surface water, the rate at which the water is cleansed through gas emission tends to be over-predicted using this approach. Micrometeorological measurement of air-water exchange rates of legacy SOCs was carried out on ships during four transect experiments during off-shore flow in Lake Superior using novel multicapillary collection devices and thermal extraction technology to measure parts-per-quadrillion SOC levels. Employing sensible heat in the modified Bowen ratio, fluxes at three over-water stations along the transects were measured, along with up-wind, onshore gaseous concentration and aqueous concentration. The atmosphere was unstable for

  8. Evaluation of a regional air-quality model with bidirectional NH3 exchange coupled to an agroecosystem model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Bash

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric ammonia (NH3 is the primary atmospheric base and an important precursor for inorganic particulate matter and when deposited NH3 contributes to surface water eutrophication, soil acidification and decline in species biodiversity. Flux measurements indicate that the air–surface exchange of NH3 is bidirectional. However, the effects of bidirectional exchange, soil biogeochemistry and human activity are not parameterized in air quality models. The US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA Community Multiscale Air-Quality (CMAQ model with bidirectional NH3 exchange has been coupled with the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC agroecosystem model. The coupled CMAQ-EPIC model relies on EPIC fertilization timing, rate and composition while CMAQ models the soil ammonium (NH4+ pool by conserving the ammonium mass due to fertilization, evasion, deposition, and nitrification processes. This mechanistically coupled modeling system reduced the biases and error in NHx (NH3 + NH4+ wet deposition and in ambient aerosol concentrations in an annual 2002 Continental US (CONUS domain simulation when compared to a 2002 annual simulation of CMAQ without bidirectional exchange. Fertilizer emissions estimated in CMAQ 5.0 with bidirectional exchange exhibits markedly different seasonal dynamics than the US EPA's National Emissions Inventory (NEI, with lower emissions in the spring and fall and higher emissions in July.

  9. Greenhouse Gas Growth Rates from AIRS Hyperspectral Radiance Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strow, L. L.; Desouza-Machado, S. G.; Hannon, S.; Imbiriba, B.; Schou, P.

    2009-12-01

    The AIRS seven year hyperspectral radiance record provides an ideal platform for measurings growth rates of infrared active minor gases, especially carbon dioxide and methane. The largest changes in CLARREO radiances will likely be due to increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We have produced a 5+ year record of almost cloud-free AIRS radiances, from which we have derived the radiance anomaly and linear time rate of change. The source of these radiances are the L1b radiances corrected for small frequency drifts. Growth rates of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and CFC11 are simultaneously derived from zonal averages of these radiance rates for tropics, and mid-latitude northern and southern hemispheres. The effective linear rate of change of ~5 layers of water vapor and temperature, plus the surface temperature are also simultaneously derived with the minor gas rates. No model data or prior is needed and more than 1000 channels are used in the fit. Sampling issues may preclude the use of the mid-latitude temperature and water vapor rates for climate analysis, but possibly not for the tropics. The resulting greenhouse gas growth rates agree very well with in-situ measurements, which suggests high radiometric stability for AIRS. Radiance intercomparisons for climate analysis between IASI and AIRS will also be presented.

  10. Design and Implementation of Automatic Air Flow Rate Control System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbar, A.; Saputra, C.; Munir, M. M.; Khairurrijal

    2016-08-01

    Venturimeter is an apparatus that can be used to measure the air flow rate. In this experiment we designed a venturimeter which equipped with a valve that is used to control the air flow rate. The difference of pressure between the cross sections was measured with the differential pressure sensor GA 100-015WD which can calculate the difference of pressures from 0 to 3737.33 Pa. A 42M048C Z36 stepper motor was used to control the valve. The precision of this motor rotation is about 0.15 °. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was developed to monitor and set the value of flow rate then an 8-bit microcontroller was used to process the control system In this experiment- the venturimeter has been examined to get the optimal parameter of controller. The results show that the controller can set the stable output air flow rate.

  11. Exchange Rate Exposure and Its Determinants: A Firm and Industry Analysis of the UK Companies

    OpenAIRE

    He, Jiao

    2010-01-01

    This study assesses whether the unexpected exchange rate movements volatilize the UK firms’ stock return based on the firm- and industry-level analysis, and examines whether the magnitude of the exchange rate exposure is determined by the firm-specific factors. Using a sample of 244 UK companies listed in the FTSE 350 during the test period between December 1999 and December 2009, the result documents that the exchange rate fluctuation does affect the firm value. Among the five introduced ex...

  12. ON THE CURRENT RMB EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AFFECTING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄燕君

    2001-01-01

    The current exchange rate regime of China is just like the US dollar-pegged exchange rate regime, which weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy but increases the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Since the scope of implementing the fiscal policy is quite narrow, it is necessary to promote the effectiveness of monetary policy by enlarging the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate regime so as to stimulate the rapid development of the Chinese economy effectively.

  13. The Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility on Import and Export Trade in China

    OpenAIRE

    Wanhui Jiang

    2014-01-01

    The exchange rate volatility always plays a key role in import and export trade. This paper investigates the effect of nominal RMB exchange rate volatility on economic growth in China from 1981 to 2012. Through the ADF stationary test, the co-integration test, and the associated econometric model and the empirical analysis, the paper concludes that in the long run, exchange rate change has a positive impact on import and export trade. Therefore, it is necessary to take relevant policies and m...

  14. Stock market volatility and exchange rates: MGARCH-DCC and wavelet approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Hashim, Khairul Khairiah; Masih, Mansur

    2015-01-01

    This study discusses the relationship between stock price index and exchange rate in Malaysia. Establishing the relationship between stock prices and exchange rate is important for several reasons. Firstly, it may affect the economic decisions in terms of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Secondly, by understanding the relationship of stock prices and exchange rate, it will assist to predict the possibility of financial downturn. This study makes an attempt to examine the positive or negativ...

  15. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: How to Solve the Puzzles

    OpenAIRE

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US dollar following domestic monetary tightening.Forward discount bias puzzle is the failure of empirical research to find results consistent with the requirement that if uncovered interest parity holds...

  16. An exchange rate determination model for central banks' interventions in financial markets

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林浚清; 黄祖辉; 战明华

    2002-01-01

    We establish an exchange rate determination model for central banks' in terventions in financial markets. The model shows that central banks can adjust exchange rate by several policy instruments and that different instruments may h ave different effects on exchange rate determination. It specifies potential pol icy instruments for central banks as well as their policy effects. Based on thes e effects, feasible matches of policy instruments in contingent intervention are put forth.

  17. An exchange rate determination model for central banks'interventions in financial markets

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林浚清; 黄祖辉; 战明华

    2002-01-01

    We establish an exchange rate determination model for central banks' interventiorm in financial markets.The model shows that central banks can adjuct exchange rate by several policy instruments and that different instruments may have different effects on exchange rate determination.It specifies potetial policy instruments for central banks as well as their policy effects.Based on these effects,feasible matches of policy instruments in contingent intervention are put forth.

  18. The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Abul, Basher; Alfred A, Haug; Perry, Sadorsky

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses Markov-switching models to investigate the impact of oil shocks on real exchange rates for a sample of oil exporting and oil importing countries. This is an important topic to study because an oil shock can affect a country’s terms of trade which can affect its competitiveness. We detect significant exchange rate appreciation pressures in oil exporting economies after oil demand shocks. We find limited evidence that oil supply shocks affect exchange rates. Global economic d...

  19. Volatility Transmission between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices in Indonesia post 1997 Asia Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Anhar Fauzan Priyono; Arief Bustaman

    2014-01-01

    Volatility of Indonesia Rupiah and Jakarta Composite Index remain one of main issues in Indonesia economy after 1997 Asian crisis. The objectives of this research are (1) determining the volatility of Indonesia Rupiah to US Dollar exchange rates and Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and (2) analysing the dynamic volatility transmission between exchange rates and JCI. Exchange rate and JCI volatility were measured using GJR-GARCH approach. Estimated using VAR model, this study found that current v...

  20. Can The Markov Switching Model with Time Varying Transition Probabilities Forecast Exchange Rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Bong-Han Kim; Joong-Haeng Lee

    2001-01-01

    We use Lee's (1991) Markov switching model with time varying transition probabilities (the TVTP Markov model) to analyze the behavior of the U.S. dollar/ British Pound exchange rate. We employ the magnitude of the deviation of the exchange rate from a monetary equilibrium value as the economic fundamental with which the transition probabilities vary. The empirical results we obtained from this paper are the following: first, the deviation of the exchange rate from a monetary equilibrium value...

  1. Optimal Exchange Rate Regimes: Turning Mundell-Fleming's Dictum on its Head

    OpenAIRE

    Amartya Lahiri; Rajesh Singh; Carlos A. Vegh

    2007-01-01

    A famous dictum in open economy macroeconomics -- which obtains in the Mundell-Fleming world of sticky prices and perfect capital mobility -- holds that the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime should depend on the type of shock hitting the economy. If shocks are predominantly real, a flexible exchange rate is optimal, whereas if shocks are mainly monetary, a fixed exchange rate is optimal. There is no obvious reason, however, why this paradigm should be the most appropriate one to thin...

  2. Dynamic interactions between the ground heat exchanger and environments in earth–air tunnel ventilation of buildings

    OpenAIRE

    Gan, Guohui

    2014-01-01

    Earth–air tunnel ventilation is an energy efficient method of preheating or cooling of supply air to abuilding. The purposes of this study are to investigate the performance of earth–air heat exchangersunder varying soil and atmosphere conditions and the interactions between the heat exchanger andenvironments. A computer program has been developed for simulation of the thermal performance of anearth–air heat exchanger for preheating and cooling of supply air, taking account of dynamic variati...

  3. How Much to Commit to an Exchange Rate Rule? Balancing Credibility and Flexibility How Much to Commit to an Exchange Rate Rule? Balancing Credibility and Flexibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nissan Liviatan

    1992-03-01

    Full Text Available How Much to Commit to an Exchange Rate Rule? Balancing Credibility and Flexibility There are different ways in which policy-makers back their commitment to a fixed exchange rate. A regime where countries can devalue unilaterally represents a weaker commitment than one where a devaluation needs to be agreed upon with other parties (e.g. the European monetary system. Full dollarization, understood here as full replacement of the domestic currency by the U.S. dollar, is an extreme commitment to a fixed exchange rate. Indeed, it is a especial case of a fixed exchange rate.The central message of this paper is that the cost of reneging is a key reason holding policymakers back from making strong commitments on their exchange rate policy. The stronger the commitment to an exchange rate rule, the more costly it is to deviate from it. The paper develops a Barro-Gordon type model in which the policymaker has to decide the degree of commitment under uncertainty.It is shown that, even for policy makers that have a strong preference for maintaining the fixed exchange rate, there are circunstances under which they will choose to devalue. This will happen when the economy is hit by an adverse shock and the costs of adhering to the fixed exchange rate are larger than those associated with devaluing.The model provides useful insights to understand why many high inflation economies have not adopted full dollarizarion as a way to stabilize prices. Our emphasis on the cost of reneging stands in contrast with most existing works, which single out the desire to rely on seigniorage as the main motive for stopping short of full dollarization. Strong commitments will only be made once there is a good chance that the policy maker will not renege, and by then they might not be necessary. We illustrate the main points of the paper with examples from Latin American countries.

  4. Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Hong Kong

    OpenAIRE

    Li-gang Liu; Andrew Tsang

    2008-01-01

    This paper estimates pass-through of exchange rate changes to domestic inflation in Hong Kong in a two-step approach. We first estimate exchange rate pass-through to import prices and then from import price to domestic inflation using a Phillips-Curve model. We find that Hong Kong¡¦s exchange rate pass-through to import prices is relatively high compared to the OECD average, although Hong Kong also witnessed a decline of pass-through after 1991. With respect to exchange rate pass-through to d...

  5. The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the intraday effects of intra-marginal intervention in a horizontal band on the exchange rate spread. Official intraday data on Danish intervention transactions in the ERM II, the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Union, facilitates our analysis. We show that intervention...... purchases and sales both exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions. Intervention purchases of the small currency, on average, narrow the spread while intervention sales of the small currency, on average, widen the spread. This is a novel finding that differs from...... those of existing studies that find intervention always widens the exchange rate spread and increases market uncertainty...

  6. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

  7. Measuring Outdoor Air Intake Rates into Existing Building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William; Sullivan, Douglas; Cohen, Sebastian; Han, Hwataik

    2009-04-16

    Practical and accurate technologies are needed for continuously measuring and controlling outdoor air (OA) intake rates in commercial building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. This project evaluated two new measurement approaches. Laboratory experiments determined that OA flow rates were measurable with errors generally less than 10 percent using electronic air velocity probes installed between OA intake louver blades or at the outlet face of louvers. High accuracy was maintained with OA flow rates as low as 15 percent of the maximum for the louvers. Thus, with this measurement approach HVAC systems do not need separate OA intakes for minimum OA supply. System calibration parameters are required for each unique combination of louver type and velocity sensor location but calibrations are not necessary for each system installation. The research also determined that the accuracy of measuring OA flow rates with velocity probes located in the duct downstream of the intake louver was not improved by installing honeycomb airflow straighteners upstream of the probes. Errors varied with type of upstream louver, were as high as 100 percent, and were often greater than 25 percent. In conclusion, use of electronic air velocity probes between the blades of OA intake louvers or at the outlet face of louvers is a highly promising means of accurately measuring rates of OA flow into HVAC systems. The use of electronic velocity probes downstream of airflow straighteners is less promising, at least with the relatively small OA HVAC inlet systems employed in this research.

  8. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  9. Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    This paper investigates the intraday effects of unannounced foreign exchange intervention on bid-ask exchange rate spreads using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our starting point is a simple theoretical model of the bid-ask spread which we use to formulate...... exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions: intervention purchases of the smaller currency, on average, reduce the spread while intervention sales, on average, increase the spread. We also show that intervention only affects the exchange rate spread when...

  10. Exchange rate dynamics, structural breaks, and central bank interventions in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Mario Uribe

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the effectiveness of the Colombian Central Bank´s interventions in the foreign exchange market during the period 2000 to 2014. We examine the stochastic process that describes the exchange rate, with a focus on the detection of structural breaks or unit roots in the data to determine whether the Central Bank´s interventions were effective. We find that the exchange rate can be described either by a random walk or by a trend-stationary model with multiple breaks. In neither cases do we find any evidence that the exchange rate was affected by the Central Bank interventions.

  11. Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rate Movements in Oil-Exporting Countries: The Role of Institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Rickne, Johanna

    2009-01-01

    Political and legal institutions affect the extent to which the real exchange rates of oil-exporting countries co-move with the oil price. In a simple theoretical model, strong institutions insulate real exchange rates from oil price volatility by generating a smooth pattern of fiscal spending over the price cycle. Empirical tests on a panel of 33 oil-exporting countries provide evidence that countries with high bureaucratic quality and strong and impartial legal systems have real exchange ra...

  12. Pick Your Poison; The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Shigeru Iwata; Evan Tanner

    2003-01-01

    The authors characterize a country’s exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such responses, both contemporaneously and over time. Capital account shocks are further shown to affect output growth and inflation. The nature and magnitude of these effects may depend on the exchange ra...

  13. Dynamic Linkages between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Iran and South Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Akbar Tavakoli; Masood Dadashi

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of present study is to analyze the relationship between stock and exchange markets in two Asian countries, Iran and South Korea. A monthly time series of stock price and exchange rate are used over the period 2002: 05 - 2012: 03. The data is collected from the Central Bank of each country and WDI. The calculated stock return and real exchange rate change are used in analysis. An econometric multiple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) BEKK metho...

  14. RATE LAW AND ITS MOMENT EXPRESSIONS FOR PELLICULAR ION EXCHANGE MATERIALS OF VARIOURS SHAPES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YangGengliang; ZhangXiaomin; 等

    1994-01-01

    In this paper,the kinetic moment expressions and rate laws are derived for pellicular ion exchange materials with various geometrical forms under the conditions that ion exchange rate is controlled by both the partical diffusion and the film diffusion in finite solution volume.In addition,for strong acidic cation ion exchange fibre,by using the equations obtained we calculated the partical diffusion coefficients and the transfer coefficients in the film under different experimental conditions.

  15. Analysis on Foreign Exchange Rate Disputes Between China and America

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jia Zhengxiang

    2009-01-01

    With economic globalization being an unstoppable trend in the contemporary world, one country's foreign exchange policy has been playing a sig-nificant role in its economic development. In recent years, trade imbalances between U.S. and China are becoming particularly serious as their overall bilateral trade volume continually ballooned.

  16. Determinants of the ZAR/USD exchange rate and policy implications: A simultaneous-equation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Hsing

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the determinants of the South African rand/US dollar (ZAR/USD exchange rate based on demand and supply analysis. Applying the EGARCH method, the paper finds that the ZAR/USD exchange rate is positively associated with the South African government bond yield, US real GDP, the US stock price and the South African inflation rate and negatively influenced by the 10-year US government bond yield, South African real GDP, the South African stock price, and the US inflation rate. The adoption of a free floating exchange rate regime has reduced the value of the rand vs. the US dollar.

  17. The relationship between the forward– and the realized spot exchange rate in South Africa / Petrus Marthinus Stephanus van Heerden

    OpenAIRE

    Van Heerden, Petrus Marthinus Stephanus

    2010-01-01

    The inability to effectively hedge against unfavourable exchange rate movements, using the current forward exchange rate as the only guideline, is a key inhibiting factor of international trade. Market participants use the current forward exchange rate quoted in the market to make decisions regarding future exchange rate changes. However, the current forward exchange rate is not solely determined by the interaction of demand and supply, but is also a mechanistic estimation, whi...

  18. Exchange Rate Exposures and Strategies of Industrial Companies: An Empirical Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy.......This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy....

  19. AN ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL PRICE AND EXCHANGE RATE ELASTICITY FOR US SOYBEANS: THE CASE OF JAPAN

    OpenAIRE

    Paudel, Laxmi; Kinnucan, Henry W.; Adhikari, Murali; Houston, Jack E.

    2004-01-01

    Stepwise model selection criteria were tested against the restrictive forms to determine the appropriate model and to confirm the law of one price for the US soybeans. Analysis shows less than one international price transmission and exchange rate elasticities in the long run indicate an incomplete exchange rate pass through.

  20. Floating Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Experience with Auction and Interbank Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Kyong Mo Huh; Benedicte Vibe Christensen; Peter J. Quirk; Toshihiko Sasaki

    1987-01-01

    In recent years, an increasing number of developing countries have adopted market-determined floating exchange rates. This development has represented a significant step forward in the evolution toward exchange rate flexibility that has taken place in the developing country group since the adoption of generalized floating by industrial countries in 1973.

  1. Oil prices and the rise and fall of the U.S. real exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is examined whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. Data used for the study are described and their time series properties and the long-run explanatory power of oil prices for the real exchange rate are examined. Apparent causal relationships between exchange rates and oil prices are examined. An unrestricted error correction model is reduced until an error correction model with reasonable properties is derived. Results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice-versa. The single equation error correction model linking these two variables is stable and captures much of the in- and out-of-sample movement in the exchange rate in dynamic simulation. Tests are presented to show that the error correction model has significant post-sample predictive ability for both the size and sign of changes in the real effective exchange rate. The results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistant real exchange rate shocks over the post-Bretton Woods period and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behaviour. 61 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  2. Air-side performance evaluation of three types of heat exchangers in dry, wet and periodic frosting conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Ping [Zhejiang Vocational College of Commerce, Hangzhou, Binwen Road 470 (China); Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 1206 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Hrnjak, P.S. [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 1206 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2009-08-15

    The performances of three types of heat exchangers that use the louver fin geometry: (1) parallel flow parallel fin with extruded flat tubes heat exchanger (PF{sup 2}), (2) parallel flow serpentine fin with extruded flat tubes heat exchanger (PFSF) and (3) round tube wave plate fin heat exchanger (RTPF) have been experimentally studied under dry, wet and frost conditions and results are presented. The parameters quantified include air-side pressure drop, water retention on the surface of the heat exchanger, capacity and overall heat transfer coefficient for air face velocity 0.9, 2 and 3 m/s, air humidity 70% and 80% and different orientations. The performances of three types of heat exchanger are compared and the results obtained are presented. The condensate drainage behavior of the air-side surface of these three heat exchanger types was studied using both the dip testing method and wind tunnel experiment. (author)

  3. Heterogeneous effects of oil shocks on exchange rates: evidence from a quantile regression approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xianfang; Zhu, Huiming; You, Wanhai; Ren, Yinghua

    2016-01-01

    The determinants of exchange rates have attracted considerable attention among researchers over the past several decades. Most studies, however, ignore the possibility that the impact of oil shocks on exchange rates could vary across the exchange rate returns distribution. We employ a quantile regression approach to address this issue. Our results indicate that the effect of oil shocks on exchange rates is heterogeneous across quantiles. A large US depreciation or appreciation tends to heighten the effects of oil shocks on exchange rate returns. Positive oil demand shocks lead to appreciation pressures in oil-exporting countries and this result is robust across lower and upper return distributions. These results offer rich and useful information for investors and decision-makers. PMID:27516925

  4. Empirical analysis on the real effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty: The case of Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Cristina Ruiz

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper re-examines the effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty on real economic activity. The existent literatura has treated both issues as separate subject matters. It has emphasized either the issue of inflation uncertainty or exchange rate uncertainty on economic growth or on different measures of economic activity. This paper attempts dealing with both issues by analyzing the magnitudes and direction of the effect of both: inflation and exchange rate uncertainty on real economic activity. By introducing dummy variables, we control for monetary policy change (the change to inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate. By using a generalized autoregressive conditional variance (GARCH model of inflation and exchange rates, the conditional variances of the model’s forecast errors were extracted as measures of uncertainty. The results suggest that higher levels of inflation Granger cause more uncertainty and viceversa for the Colombian economy. Also, only inflation uncertainty matters for output by exerting a negative influence

  5. RMB Exchange Rate Regime:Suggestions on Further Reform and Exit Strategy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LiJing

    2003-01-01

    Since 2000,the focus of the study of the RMB exchange rate has transferred from debate on whether it should appreciate or depreciate to the overall phanning and the envisaged improvement of the RMB exchange rate regime.Many scholoars have suggested that if is the best time for reforming the current RMB exchange rate regime for greater exchange rate flexibility.Meanwhile,the IMF,while speaking highly of China's economic performance and its flexible economic policies,also has sugested that China should take advantage of its WTO accession to reform the RMB exchange rate system.There is little doubt,however,that a great deal of ground has to be covered before consensus can be reached on the strategy and concrete steps for carrying out the reform.

  6. Conquering the Summit With Firm Strides——Review on the restarted RMB exchange rate reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Ming

    2010-01-01

    @@ On the evening of June 19th 2010, the central bank of China released that "on further advancing the reform in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and strengthen-ing the flexibility of RMB rate". There were three key points. First, "now that global economy is steadily recovering, and the recovering trend in China is strengthened, it is necessary to further advance reform in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and strengthen the flexibility of RMB rate."

  7. Effect of Air Cleaning Technologies in Conjunction With the Use of Rotary Heat Exchangers in Residential Buildings

    OpenAIRE

    Afshari, Alireza; Bergsøe, Niels Christian; Ekberg, Lars

    2013-01-01

    This study is part of a research project concerning the possibilities of applying efficient air cleaning technologies using rotary heat exchanger in residential buildings. The purpose of this project was to identify and adapt new air-cleaning technologies for implementation in HVAC systems with rotary air-to-air heat exchangers. For this purpose, a mechanical filter with low pressure drop and a 4 cm thick activated carbon filter were selected for testing in a laboratory environment. The measu...

  8. Tolerance Levels of Roadside Trees to Air Pollutants Based on Relative Growth Rate and Air Pollution Tolerance Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SULISTIJORINI

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Motor vehicles release carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and particulate matters to the air as pollutants. Vegetation can absorb these pollutants through gas exchange processes. The objective of this study was to examine the combination of the relative growth rate (RGR and physiological responses in determining tolerance levels of plant species to air pollutants. Physiological responses were calculated as air pollution tolerance index (APTI. Eight roadside tree species were placed at polluted (Jagorawi highway and unpolluted (Sindangbarang field area. Growth and physiological parameters of the trees were recorded, including plant height, leaf area, total ascorbate, total chlorophyll, leaf-extract pH, and relative water content. Scoring criteria for the combination of RGR and APTI method was given based on means of the two areas based on two-sample t test. Based on the total score of RGR and APTI, Lagerstroemia speciosa was categorized as a tolerant species; and Pterocarpus indicus, Delonix regia, Swietenia macrophylla were categorized as moderately tolerant species. Gmelina arborea, Cinnamomum burmanii, and Mimusops elengi were categorized as intermediate tolerant species. Lagerstroemia speciosa could be potentially used as roadside tree. The combination of RGR and APTI value was better to determinate tolerance level of plant to air pollutant than merely APTI method.

  9. Theoretical evaluation on the impact of heat exchanger in Advanced Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • A multi-stage AA-CAES system model is established based on thermodynamic theory. • Four Cases about pressure loss and effectiveness of heat exchanger are investigated. • The impact of pressure loss on conversion of heat energy in TES is more sensitive. • The impact of heat exchanger effectiveness in charge process on system is stronger. • Pressure loss in heat exchanger affects the change trends of system efficiency. - Abstract: Advanced Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage (AA-CAES) is a large-scale energy storage system based on gas turbine technology and thermal energy storage (TES). Electrical energy can be converted into internal energy of air and heat energy in TES during the charge process, while reverse energy conversion proceeds during discharge process. The performance of AA-CAES system requires further improvement in order to increase efficiency. In this paper, a multi-stage AA-CAES system model is established, and the influence of effectiveness and pressure loss in heat exchanger on energy conversion and utilization efficiency of AA-CAES system is analyzed theoretically based on the theory of thermodynamics. Four Cases about effectiveness and pressure loss of heat exchanger are investigated and compared with each other. It is found that effectiveness and pressure loss of heat exchanger are directly related to energy conversion and utilization in AA-CAES system. System efficiency changes with the variation of heat exchanger effectiveness and the impact of pressure loss on conversion of heat energy in TES is more sensitive than that of internal energy of air. Pressure loss can cause the complexity of system efficiency change. With appropriate selection of the values of heat exchanger effectiveness for both charge and discharge processes, an AA-CAES system with a higher efficiency could be expected

  10. Role of sea ice in air-sea exchange and its relation to sea fog

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    解思梅; 包澄澜; 姜德中; 邹斌

    2001-01-01

    Synchronous or quasi-synchronous stereoscopic sea-ice-air comprehensive observation was conducted during the First China Arctic Expedition in summer of 1999. Based on these data, the role of sea ice in sea-air exchange was studied. The study shows that the kinds, distribution and thickness of sea ice and their variation significantly influence the air-sea heat exchange. In floating ice area, the heat momentum transferred from ocean to atmosphere is in form of latent heat; latent heat flux is closely related to floating ice concentration; if floating ice is less, the heat flux would be larger. Latent heat flux is about 21 23.6 W*m-2, which is greater than sensible heat flux. On ice field or giant floating ice, heat momentum transferred from atmosphere to sea ice or snow surface is in form of sensible heat. In the floating ice area or polynya, sea-air exchange is the most active, and also the most sensible for climate. Also this area is the most important condition for the creation of Arctic vapor fog. The heat exchange of a large-scale vapor fog process of about 500000 km2 on Aug. 21 22,1999 was calculated; the heat momentum transferred from ocean to air was about 14.8×109 kW. There are various kinds of sea fog, radiation fog, vapor fog and advection fog, forming in the Arctic Ocean in summer. One important cause is the existence of sea ice and its resultant complexity of both underlying surface and sea-air exchange.

  11. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  12. Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation to the Romanian Foreign Currency Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavinia Diana Vasile

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we intend to indentify the impact of the currency rate of exchange variation of the two main currencies which represent Romania’s foreign currency reserve and the stress test it submits the latter. Up to the present moment there not established a cause-effect relationship or correlation between the foreign currency exchage rate was variation and the foreign currency reserve. In this respect we used an econometrics model based on cointegration analysis of the three series of data corresponding to the period of time 31.01.1995-31.06.2006 (the EURO exchange rate, the USD exchange rate and the foreign currency reserve.

  13. A comparative study of United States and China exchange rate behavior: A co integration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shafi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates always affect the prices of the imports and export of products and services in which countries are trading with other parts of the world. Therefore, exchange rate calculation is one of the essential issues for making appropriate policies. This research investigates the determinants of trade, i.e. import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation, which bring changes in exchange rate and their influence eventually on balance of payments. Data of defined variables was collected on yearly basis for China and USA for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there existed a long run relationship in both countries. USA and China had significant and correct signs on the short run dynamic and some of the factors did not. Exchange rate did not granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment did not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinants of balance of trade could affect the exchange rates, also, these rates had considerable effect (positive or negative on balance of payments. In this twofold study, we found relationship of exchange rate with selected determinants of trade, and also examined their bilateral effect, and then made contrast of both countries.

  14. Measuring important parameters for air-sea heat exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbe, Christoph; Schimpf, Uwe; Jaehne, Bernd

    2002-03-01

    The heat transfer between the ocean and the atmosphere is one of the most important parameters governing the global climate. Important parameters include the heat transfer velocity and the net heat flux as well as parameters of the underlying transport model. However, the net heat flux is hard to measure since processes take place in the thermal boundary layer, that is the topmost layer of the ocean less than 1 mm thick. Current techniques rely on three independent measurements of the constituent fluxes, the sensible heat flux, latent heat flux and radiative flux. They depend on indirect measurements of meteorological parameters and rely on a combination of data from different sensors using a number of heuristic assumptions. High relative errors and the need for long temporal averaging reduce the practicability of these techniques. In this paper a novel technique is presented that circumvents these drawbacks by directly measuring the net heat flux across the air-water interface with a single low-NETD infrared camera. A newly developed digital image processing technique allows to simultaneously estimating the surface velocity field and parameters of the temporal temperature change. In particular, this technique allows estimating the total derivative of the temperature with respect to time from a sequence of infrared images, together with error bounds on the estimates. This derivative can be used to compute the heat flux density and the heat transfer velocity, as well as the probability density function of the underlying surface renewal model. It is also possible to estimate the bulk-skin temperature difference given rise to by the net heat flux. Our technique has been successfully used in both laboratory measurements in the Heidelberg Aeolotron, as well as in field measurements in the equatorial pacific during the NOAA GasExII experiment this spring. The data show that heat flux measurements to an accuracy of better than 5% on a time scale of seconds are feasible.

  15. Air-soil exchange of organochlorine pesticides in a sealed chamber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bing; Han, Baolu; Xue, Nandong; Zhou, Lingli; Li, Fasheng

    2015-01-01

    So far little is known about air-soil exchange under any sealed circumstances (e.g., in plastic and glass sheds), which however has huge implications for the soil-air-plant pathways of persistent organic pollutants including organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). A newly designed passive air sampler was tested in a sealed chamber for measuring the vertical concentration profiles of gaseous phase OCPs (hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs)). Air was sampled at 5, 15, and 30 cm above ground level every 10th day during a 60-day period by deploying polyurethane foam cylinders housed in acrylonitrile butadiene styrene-covered cartridges. Concentrations and compositions of OCPs along the vertical sections indicated a clear relationship with proximity to the mixture of HCHs and DDTs which escapes from the soils. In addition, significant positive correlations were found between air temperatures and concentrations of HCHs and DDTs. These results indicated revolatilization and re-deposition being at or close to dynamic pseudo-equilibrium with the overlying air. The sampler used for addressing air-soil exchange of persistent organic pollutants in any sealed conditions is discussed. PMID:25597683

  16. Air-soil exchange of organochlorine pesticides in a sealed chamber

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bing Yang; Baolu Han; Nandong Xue; Lingli Zhou; Fasheng Li

    2015-01-01

    So far little is known about air-soil exchange under any sealed circumstances (e.g.,in plastic and glass sheds),which however has huge implications for the soil-air-plant pathways of persistent organic pollutants including organochlorine pesticides (OCPs).A newly designed passive air sampler was tested in a sealed chamber for measuring the vertical concentration profiles of gaseous phase OCPs (hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs)).Air was sampled at 5,15,and 30 cm above ground level every 10th day during a 60-day period by deploying polyurethane foam cyhnders housed in acrylonitrile butadiene styrene-covered cartridges.Concentrations and compositions of OCPs along the vertical sections indicated a clear relationship with proximity to the mixture of HCHs and DDTs which escapes from the soils.In addition,significant positive correlations were found between air temperatures and concentrations of HCHs and DDTs.These results indicated revolatilization and re-deposition being at or close to dynamic pseudo-equilibrium with the overlying air.The sampler used for addressing air-soil exchange of persistent organic pollutants in any sealed conditions is discussed.

  17. DIFFUSIVE EXCHANGE OF GASEOUS POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS AND POLYCHLORINATED BIPHENYLS ACROSS THE AIR-WATER INTERFACE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. (R825245)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissolved and gas-phase concentrations of nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and 46 polychlorinated biphenyl congeners were measured at eight sites on the Chesapeake Bay at four different times of the year to estimate net diffusive air-water gas exchange rates. Gaseous PAHs ar...

  18. Dry deposition and soil-air gas exchange of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in an industrial area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambient air and dry deposition, and soil samples were collected at the Aliaga industrial site in Izmir, Turkey. Atmospheric total (particle + gas) Σ41-PCB concentrations were higher in summer (3370 ± 1617 pg m-3, average + SD) than in winter (1164 ± 618 pg m-3), probably due to increased volatilization with temperature. Average particulate Σ41-PCBs dry deposition fluxes were 349 ± 183 and 469 ± 328 ng m-2 day-1 in summer and winter, respectively. Overall average particulate deposition velocity was 5.5 ± 3.5 cm s-1. The spatial distribution of Σ41-PCB soil concentrations (n = 48) showed that the iron-steel plants, ship dismantling facilities, refinery and petrochemicals complex are the major sources in the area. Calculated air-soil exchange fluxes indicated that the contaminated soil is a secondary source to the atmosphere for lighter PCBs and as a sink for heavier ones. Comparable magnitude of gas exchange and dry particle deposition fluxes indicated that both mechanisms are equally important for PCB movement between air and soil in Aliaga. - Determined fluxes indicated that dry deposition and air-soil exchange are equally important mechanisms for movement of PCBs between air and soil in the study area

  19. Measuring a hidden coordinate: Rate-exchange kinetics from 3D correlation functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Mark A.; Darvin, Jason R.

    2016-08-01

    Nonexponential kinetics imply the existence of at least one slow variable other than the observable, that is, the system has a "hidden" coordinate. We develop a simple, but general, model that allows multidimensional correlation functions to be calculated for these systems. Homogeneous and heterogeneous mechanisms are both included, and slow exchange of the rates is allowed. This model shows that 2D and 3D correlation functions of the observable measure the distribution and kinetics of the hidden coordinate controlling the rate exchange. Both the mean exchange time and the shape of the exchange relaxation are measurable. However, complications arise because higher correlation functions are sums of multiple "pathways," each of which measures different dynamics. Only one 3D pathway involves exchange dynamics. Care must be used to extract exchange dynamics without contamination from other processes.

  20. 20 Years of Air-Water Gas Exchange Observations for Pesticides in the Western Arctic Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantunen, Liisa M; Wong, Fiona; Gawor, Anya; Kylin, Henrik; Helm, Paul A; Stern, Gary A; Strachan, William M J; Burniston, Deborah A; Bidleman, Terry F

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic has been contaminated by legacy organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and currently used pesticides (CUPs) through atmospheric transport and oceanic currents. Here we report the time trends and air-water exchange of OCPs and CUPs from research expeditions conducted between 1993 and 2013. Compounds determined in both air and water were trans- and cis-chlordanes (TC, CC), trans- and cis-nonachlors (TN, CN), heptachlor exo-epoxide (HEPX), dieldrin (DIEL), chlorobornanes (ΣCHBs and toxaphene), dacthal (DAC), endosulfans and metabolite endosulfan sulfate (ENDO-I, ENDO-II, and ENDO SUL), chlorothalonil (CHT), chlorpyrifos (CPF), and trifluralin (TFN). Pentachloronitrobenzene (PCNB and quintozene) and its soil metabolite pentachlorothianisole (PCTA) were also found in air. Concentrations of most OCPs declined in surface water, whereas some CUPs increased (ENDO-I, CHT, and TFN) or showed no significant change (CPF and DAC), and most compounds declined in air. Chlordane compound fractions TC/(TC + CC) and TC/(TC + CC + TN) decreased in water and air, while CC/(TC + CC + TN) increased. TN/(TC + CC + TN) also increased in air and slightly, but not significantly, in water. These changes suggest selective removal of more labile TC and/or a shift in chlordane sources. Water-air fugacity ratios indicated net volatilization (FR > 1.0) or near equilibrium (FR not significantly different from 1.0) for most OCPs but net deposition (FR < 1.0) for ΣCHBs. Net deposition was shown for ENDO-I on all expeditions, while the net exchange direction of other CUPs varied. Understanding the processes and current state of air-surface exchange helps to interpret environmental exposure and evaluate the effectiveness of international protocols and provides insights for the environmental fate of new and emerging chemicals. PMID:26196214

  1. The impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises

    OpenAIRE

    David M. Gould; Steven B. Kamin

    1999-01-01

    This paper addresses the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises. Some observers have argued that a tightening of monetary policy is necessary to stabilize the exchange rate, restore confidence, and lay the groundwork for an eventual recovery of economic activity. Others have argued that by raising interest rates (which reduces the ability of borrowers to repay loans and thereby weakens the banking system), tightening may further reduce investor confidence and lead...

  2. The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: The Relevance of International Experience to China's Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JohnWilliamson

    2005-01-01

    The Chinese exchange rate has been the focus of discussion for many months, with both internal and external considerations seemingly pointing to the desirability of a currency revaluation. This paper draws from the lessons of international experience with exchangerate regimes in the period since Worm War Two. It lays out the conditions necessary to validate a fixed exchange rate and some intermediate regimes that might work when a fixed rate is inappropriate. It then discusses what the analysis implies for contemporary China.

  3. International transmission of anticipated inflation under alternative exchange-rate regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Jill A. Holman; Felix K. Rioja

    1998-01-01

    This paper studies the international transmission of anticipated inflation. A two-country, two-good, two-currency, cash-in-advance model is used to examine analytically and numerically the consequences of changes in a country's inflation rate. Domestic monetary policy influences real activity at home through an inflation-tax channel. These real effects are transmitted to the foreign country via fluctuations in the real exchange rate. Under a flexible nominal exchange rate, inflation is a begg...

  4. Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Fathian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

  5. The Effects Of Asymmetric Transmission Of Exchange Rate On Inflation In Iran: Application Of Threshold Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naghdi Yazdan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Given the recent fluctuation in the exchange rate and the presence of several factors such as the various economy-political sanctions (mainly embargos on oil and banking, extreme volatility in different economic fields, and consequently the devaluation of national and public procurement -A landmark that is emanating from exchange rate fluctuation - two points should be noted: First, it is essential to review the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on macro economic variables such as inflation and to provide appropriate policies. Second, the existence of this condition provides the chance to study the relation between exchange rate and inflation in a non-linear and asymmetric method. Hence, the present study seeks to use TAR model and, on the basis of monthly time series data over the period March 2002 to March 2014, to analyze the cross-asymmetric and non-linear exchange rate on consumer price index (CPI in Iran. The results also show the presence of an asymmetric long-term relationship between these variables (exchange rate and CPI. Also, in the Iranian economy, the effect of negative shocks of exchange rate on inflation is more sustainable than the one from positive shocks.

  6. Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline?

    OpenAIRE

    Aaron Tornell; Andres Velasco

    1995-01-01

    In recent years the conventional wisdom has held that fixed rates provide more fiscal discipline than do flexible rates. In this paper we show that this wisdom need not hold in a standard model in which fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a maximizing fiscal authority. The claim that fixed rates induce more discipline stresses that sustained adoption of lax fiscal policies must eventually lead to an exhaustion of reserves and thus to a politically costly collapse of the peg. Hence, un...

  7. The Effects of Air Pollution on Ischemic Stroke Admission Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alimohammadi, Hossein; Fakhri, Sara; Derakhshanfar, Hojjat; Hosseini-Zijoud, Seyed-Mostafa; Safari, Saeed; Hatamabadi, Hamid Reza

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to determine the relationship between the level of air pollutants and the rate of ischemic stroke (IS) admissions to hospitals. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, stroke admissions (January-March 2012 and 2013) to an emergency department and air pollution and meteorological data were gathered. The relationship between air pollutant levels and hospital admission rates were evaluated using the generalize additive model. In all 379 patients with IS were referred to the hospital (52.5% male; mean age 68.2±13.3 years). Both transient (p<0.001) and long-term (p<0.001) rises in CO level increases the risk of IS. Increased weekly (p<0.001) and monthly (p<0.001) average O3 levels amplifies this risk, while a transient increase in NO2 (p<0.001) and SO2 (p<0.001) levels has the same effect. Long-term changes in PM10 (p<0.001) and PM2.5 (p<0.001) also increase the risk of IS. The findings showed that the level of air pollutants directly correlates with the number of stroke admissions to the emergency department. PMID:26866000

  8. Floating Exchange Rate Regime and Changing Dynamics of the Foreign Exchange Market in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Senkan Aldemir

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the changes caused by the implementations of currency basket peg and floating exchange regime on domestic foreign exchange market dynamics through the estimation of weights for the reserve currencies in the currency basket. Elasticity coefficients of Turkish Lira against seven currencies were estimated for two sampling periods (1995:01-1999:07 and 2002:01-2008:01 using generalized vector autoregression method. The study focuses on Turkish economy. The scope of the study represents a quite new field of investigation which is analyzed only to a limited extent in the literature. The main contribution of the study was that the study extended the empirical model which was taken as a basis in the majority of the studies on currency basket and the analyses which estimated using vector autoregression method whose sampling was limited to Asia countries, using generalized impulse response normalization approach. The findings obtained from the first period support the weights of currencies in announced basket of currencies. It was observed that Pound Sterling had a significant weight in domestic foreign exchange market dynamics in the second period.

  9. Financial imbalances, the dollar exchange rate and international monetary policy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. TRIFFIN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The continuous and spectacular rise of the dollar on the global foreign exchange market, despite the equally spectacular current account deficit of the U.S. balance of payments, is something that no economist would have dreamed to be possible. Everyone will agree that the answer to the puzzle lies in the fact that the transactions in the current account now constitute only a small part of the gross currency movements, in fact dominated by capital movements. What needs to be explained then is the sheer volume of the total net capital that finances the deficit. The present work considers this paradox, the dollar’s role in the world monetary system and medium and long-term perspectives for the world financial system.

  10. Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rafael de Oliveira Felício

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the usefulness of factor models in explaining the dynamics of the exchange rate Real / Dollar from January 1999 to August 2011. The paper verifies that the inclusion of factors embedded on the common movements of exchange rates of a set of countries significantly improves the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the models comprising only macroeconomic fundamentals commonly used in the literature to forecast the exchange rate. The paper also links the information contained in the factors to global shocks like the demand for dollars - a "dollar effect", volatility and liquidity of global financial markets.

  11. Effective transfer entropy approach to information flow between exchange rates and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate the strength and direction of information flow between exchange rates and stock prices in several emerging countries by the novel concept of effective transfer entropy (an alternative non-linear causality measure) with symbolic encoding methodology. Analysis shows that before the 2008 crisis, only low level interaction exists between these two variables and exchange rates dominate stock prices in general. During crisis, strong bidirectional interaction arises. In the post-crisis period, the strong interaction continues to exist and in general stock prices dominate exchange rates

  12. Putting the Cart before the Horse? Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    EswarPrasad; ThomasRumbaugh; QingWang

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews the issues involved in moving towards greater exchange rate flexibility and capital account liberalization in China. A more flexible exchange rate regime would allow China to operate a more independent monetary policy, providing a useful buffer against domestic and external shocks. At the same time, weaknesses in China 's financial system suggest that capital account liberalization poses significant risks and should be a lower priority in the short term. This paper concludes that greater exchange rate flexibility is in China's own interest and that, along with a more stable and robust financial system, it should be regarded as a prerequisite for undertaking a substantial liberalization of the capital account.

  13. Effects of the exchange rate on international prices of pulp and paper in Brazilian currency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naisy Silva Soares

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze effects of the exchange rate adopted in Brazil as well as pulp and paper prices in the U.S. on pulpand paper prices in Brazilian currency, from April 2003 to February 2009. To attain that, the shift-share method was used, and analysisresults indicated that price variations in Brazilian currency were more strongly influenced by exchange rate variations than by variations indollar prices, demonstrating the importance of the exchange rate policy adopted by Brazil in the behavior of pulp and paper prices.

  14. The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate on Agricultural Food Prices in Emerging Market

    OpenAIRE

    Li Zhou

    2015-01-01

    With the development of economic globalization, the economic ties between countries in the world more and more closely, prices and the exchange rate are the core economic variables in an open economy. In this study, we make a statistical analysis of RMB real effective exchange rate and agricultural food prices data from the year of 1990 to 2014. From the empirical analysis, the result shows that RMB real effective exchange rate will effect on agricultural food prices. LnREER at lag 1 period i...

  15. Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Eichenbaum; Charles L. Evans

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents new empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on U.S. exchange rates, both nominal and real. Three measures of monetary policy shocks are considered: orthogonalized shocks to the Federal Funds rate, the ratio of Non Borrowed to Total Reserves and the Romer and Romer (1989) index. Using data from the flexible exchange rate era, we find that expansionary shocks to U.S. monetary policy lead to sharp. persistent depreciations in U.S. nominal and real exchange...

  16. Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Beckmann, Joscha

    2011-01-01

    Although the literature on purchasing power parity (PPP) is rich in controversy, the relative contribution of prices and nominal exchange rates to real exchange rate movements which restore PPP disequilibria has rarely been put under any close scrutiny. Using monthly data from 1973:01 to 2009:12 from the USA, UK, Germany, France and Japan, this paper as a fi rst step applies a cointegrated VAR framework to test for stationary real exchange rates and linear adjustments in prices and nominal ex...

  17. Oil Shocks and Kuwait’s Dinar Exchange Rate: the Dutch Disease Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Al-mulali, Usama; Che Sab, Normee

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of oil prices on the exchange rate in Kuwait which uses the fixed exchange rate regime to the US dollar. Time series data from 1970-2008 covering all the oil shocks are used. In order to achieve the results of this study, the VAR model, the Johansen-Juselius Multivariate Cointegration test and the Granger causality test are implemented. Due to the results we have arrived at, we recommend that Kuwait either maintains its exchange rate regime (pegged to a bask...

  18. Using fuzzy neural networks for RMB/USD real exchange rate forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUI Xiao-feng; LI Zhe; WEI Qing-quan

    2005-01-01

    In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential,which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm.In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.

  19. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on the Exports of Turkey: Analysis of Different Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Serra Eren Sarioglu

    2013-01-01

    The impact of real exchange rate volatility on the exports of a country is one of the crucial issues to consider. In this paper, the effect of exchange rate volatility on the exports of Turkey is investigated. Four of the leading industries of Turkey are chosen and examined for the period 2003-2011. Bounds test and ARDL approach are applied to the monthly figures of the variables. According to the empirical findings of the analysis, exchange rate volatility does not have any significant effec...

  20. CFD-Based Correlation Development For Air Side Performance Of Finned And Finless Tube Heat Exchangers With Small Diameter Tubes

    OpenAIRE

    Bacellar, Daniel; Aute, Vikrant; Radermacher, Reinhard

    2014-01-01

    Air-to-refrigerant heat exchangers are a key component in air-conditioning and heat pump systems. A great deal of effort is spent on the design and optimization of these heat exchangers. One path towards improving their performance is the transition to smaller hydraulic diameter flow channels. This is evident by the recent introduction of microchannel heat exchangers in the stationary HVAC market. Systematic analyses demonstrates a great potential for improvement in terms of size, weight, ref...

  1. Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ahmet

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

  2. Direct measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over a coral reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish A.; MacKellar, Mellissa C.; Gray, Michael A.

    2016-05-01

    Quantification of CO2 exchange with the atmosphere over coral reefs has relied on microscale measurements of pCO2 gradients across the air-sea interfacial boundary; shipboard measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over adjacent ocean inferred to represent over reef processes or ecosystem productivity modeling. Here we present by way of case study the first direct measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over a coral reef made using the eddy covariance method. Research was conducted during the summer monsoon over a lagoonal platform reef in the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Results show the reef flat to be a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of similar magnitude as coastal lakes, while adjacent shallow and deep lagoons were net sinks as was the surrounding ocean. This heterogeneity in CO2 exchange with the atmosphere confirms need for spatially representative direct measurements of CO2 over coral reefs to accurately quantify their role in atmospheric carbon budgets.

  3. Thermal-economic optimization of an air-cooled heat exchanger unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thermodynamic modeling and optimal design of an air-cooled heat exchanger (ACHE) unit are developed in this study. For this purpose, ε–NTU method and mathematical relations are applied to estimate the fluids outlet temperatures and pressure drops in tube and air sides. The main goal of this study is minimizing of two conflicting objective functions namely the temperature approach and the minimum total annual cost, simultaneously. For this purpose, fast and elitist non-dominated sorting genetic-algorithm (NSGA-II) is applied to minimize the objective functions by considering ten design parameters. In addition, a set of typical constraints, governing on the ACHE unit design, is subjected to obtain more practical optimum design points. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of change in the objective functions, when the optimum design parameters vary, is conducted and the degree of each parameter on conflicting objective functions has been investigated. Finally, a selection procedure of the best optimum point is introduced and final optimum design point is determined. -- Highlights: ► Multi-objective optimization of air-cooled heat exchanger. ► Considering ten new design parameters in this type of heat exchanger. ► A detailed cost function is used to estimate the heat exchanger investment cost. ► Presenting a mathematical relation for optimum total cost vs. temperature approach. ► The sensitivity analysis of parameters in the optimum situation

  4. Quantification of protein backbone hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates by solid state NMR spectroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez del Amo, Juan-Miguel; Fink, Uwe; Reif, Bernd, E-mail: reif@tum.d [Leibniz-Institut fuer Molekulare Pharmakologie (FMP) (Germany)

    2010-12-15

    We present the quantification of backbone amide hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates (HDX) for immobilized proteins. The experiments make use of the deuterium isotope effect on the amide nitrogen chemical shift, as well as on proton dilution by deuteration. We find that backbone amides in the microcrystalline {alpha}-spectrin SH3 domain exchange rather slowly with the solvent (with exchange rates negligible within the individual {sup 15}N-T{sub 1} timescales). We observed chemical exchange for 6 residues with HDX exchange rates in the range from 0.2 to 5 s{sup -1}. Backbone amide {sup 15}N longitudinal relaxation times that we determined previously are not significantly affected for most residues, yielding no systematic artifacts upon quantification of backbone dynamics (Chevelkov et al. 2008b). Significant exchange was observed for the backbone amides of R21, S36 and K60, as well as for the sidechain amides of N38, N35 and for W41{epsilon}. These residues could not be fit in our previous motional analysis, demonstrating that amide proton chemical exchange needs to be considered in the analysis of protein dynamics in the solid-state, in case D{sub 2}O is employed as a solvent for sample preparation. Due to the intrinsically long {sup 15}N relaxation times in the solid-state, the approach proposed here can expand the range of accessible HDX rates in the intermediate regime that is not accessible so far with exchange quench and MEXICO type experiments.

  5. The Importance of Corporate Foreign Debt in Managing Exchange Rate Exposure in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2006-01-01

    This empirical study of the exchange rate exposure management of Danish non-financial firms listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange shows that debt denominated in foreign currency (foreign debt) is a very important alternative to the use of currency derivatives. The results show that the relative...

  6. An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997

    OpenAIRE

    Jose M. Campa; P.H. Kevin Chang; Refalo, James F.

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the crawling peg' and target zone ( maxiband') regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an exchange...

  7. Inflation Targeting According to Oil and Exchange Rate Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Cem Mehmet Baydur

    2008-01-01

    Unless current output is not equal to potential output in an economy, inflation targeting cannot be zero. The minimum rate of inflation target is determined by the level of economic distortion rate. Briefly, economic distortion can be defined as all kind of events and regulations that reduces the efficiency of price mechanism. While shocks are included to the analysis of inflation targeting with distortions, the central bank is compelled to make a choice between inflation and output stability...

  8. Heat exchanger design for hot air ericsson-brayton piston engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ďurčanský P.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the solutions without negative consequences for the increasing energy consumption in the world may be use of alternative energy sources in micro-cogeneration. Currently it is looking for different solutions and there are many possible ways. Cogeneration is known for long time and is widely used. But the installations are often large and the installed output is more suitable for cities or industry companies. When we will speak about decentralization, the small machines have to be used. The article deals with the principle of hot-air engines, their use in combined heat and electricity production from biomass and with heat exchangers as primary energy transforming element. In the article is hot air engine presented as a heat engine that allows the conversion of heat into mechanical energy while heat supply can be external. In the contribution are compared cycles of hot-air engine. Then are compared suitable heat exchangers for use with hot air Ericsson-Brayton engine. In the final part is proposal of heat exchanger for use in closed Ericsson-Brayton cycle.

  9. Air-Seawater Exchange of Organochlorine Pesticides along the Sediment Plume of a Large Contaminated River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tian; Guo, Zhigang; Li, Yuanyuan; Nizzetto, Luca; Ma, Chuanliang; Chen, Yingjun

    2015-05-01

    Gaseous exchange fluxes of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) across the air-water interface of the coastal East China Sea were determined in order to assess whether the contaminated plume of the Yangtze River could be an important regional source of OCPs to the atmosphere. Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), chlordane compounds (CHLs), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) were the most frequently detected OCPs in air and water. Air-water exchange was mainly characterized by net volatilization for all measured OCPs. The net gaseous exchange flux ranged 10-240 ng/(m2·day) for γ-HCH, 60-370 ng/(m2·day) for trans-CHL, 97-410 ng/(m2·day) for cis-CHL, and ∼0 (e.g., equilibrium) to 490 ng/(m2·day) for p,p'-DDE. We found that the plume of the large contaminated river can serve as a significant regional secondary atmospheric source of legacy contaminants released in the catchment. In particular, the sediment plume represented the relevant source of DDT compounds (especially p,p'-DDE) sustaining net degassing when clean air masses from the open ocean reached the plume area. In contrast, a mass balance showed that, for HCHs, contaminated river discharge (water and sediment) plumes were capable of sustaining volatilization throughout the year. These results demonstrate the inconsistencies in the fate of HCHs and DDTs in this large estuarine system with declining primary sources. PMID:25827140

  10. Exchange rate exposure of firms and the demand for foreign exchange derivatives in Brazil: did hedge or speculatiom matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines empirically how the demand of foreign exchange derivatives by Brazilian corporations is related to their exchange rate exposure. With the help of an original database of 74,567 contracts written from 1999 to 2002 between corporations and financial institutions, we were able to identify the corporations that speculated and the ones that hedged with foreign exchange derivatives during this period. Our results show that the exchange rate exposure is positively related to the foreign operational exposures for firms that speculated and negatively related for firms that hedged in 2002. For the other years of the sample period, speculation or hedge did not affect the relationship between the exchange rate exposure and the foreign operational exposure of firms.Este artigo analisa empiricamente como a demanda de derivativos de câmbio por firmas brasileiras está relacionada as suas exposições cambiais. Coma ajuda de umbanco de dados original de 74.567 contratos entre firmas e instituições financeiras de 1999 a 2002, somos capazes de identificar que empresas especularam e que empresas fizeram hedge durante o período. Nossos resultados mostram que a exposição operacional cambial das firmas está positivamente relacionada com a exposição cambial das firmas que especularam e negativamente relacionada com as firmas que fizeram hedge em 2002. Para os outros anos do período amostral, a especulação ou hedge não afetaram a relação entre a exposição operacional cambial e a exposição operacional das firmas brasileiras.

  11. The evolutionary synchronization of the exchange rate system in ASEAN+6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaobing; Hu, Haibo; Wang, Xiaofan

    2010-12-01

    Although there are extensive researches on the behavior of the world currency network, the complexity of the Asian regional currency system is not well understood regardless of its importance. Using daily exchange rates this paper examines exchange rate co-movements in the region before and after the China exchange rate reform. It was found that the correlation between Asian currencies and the US Dollar, the previous regional key currency has become weaker and intra-Asia interactions have increased. Cross sample entropy and cross entropy approaches are also applied to examine the synchrony behavior among the Asian currencies. The study also shows that the Asian exchange rate markets featured are neither stochastic nor efficient. These findings may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of collective behaviors in a regional currency network; they will also lay a theoretical foundation for further policy formulation in Asian currency integration.

  12. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oilprice and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysiscommence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-basedco-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationshipbetween exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long runrelationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed tocheck the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics areinfluenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done andfound that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has aninfluence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under controlshould be implemented to control unemployment.

  13. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

  14. Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Prices for Agricultural Commodities: Empirical Evidence from Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Burakov

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate long and short-term impact of changes in oil prices and the exchange rate on prices of seven groups of agricultural products in Russia (buckwheat, grain crops, potatoes, oat, wheat, rye, barley. In this paper, Granger causality approach is applied to test long-run interlinkages with monthly data from January 1999 to October 2015. For testing the response of agricultural prices to sudden shocks in oil prices and exchange rate in the short run, we use impulse-response techniques. The results of impulse response analysis show that agricultural prices are not particularly sensitive to changes in oil prices and the exchange rate of Russian ruble in the short term, except for imported commodities. In the long run, Granger causal relationship between agricultural prices and oil prices is missing, and with exchange rate is observed only in case of imported agricultural goods.

  15. A review on the thermal hydraulic characteristics of the air-cooled heat exchangers in forced convection

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ankur Kumar; Jyeshtharaj B Joshi; Arun K Nayak; Pallippattu K Vijayan

    2015-05-01

    In this paper, a review is presented on the experimental investigations and the numerical simulations performed to analyze the thermal-hydraulic performance of the air-cooled heat exchangers. The air-cooled heat exchangers mostly consist of the finned-tube bundles. The primary role of the extended surfaces (fins) is to provide more heat transfer area to enhance the rate of heat transfer on the air side. The secondary role of the fins is to generate vortices, which help in enhancing the mixing and the heat transfer coefficient. In this study, the annular and plate fins are considered, the annular fins are further divided into four categories: (1) plane annular fins, (2) serrated fins, (3) crimped spiral fins, (4) perforated fins, and similarly for the plate fins, the fin types are: (1) plain plate fins, (2) wavy plate fins, (3) plate fins with DWP, and (4) slit and strip fins. In Section 4, the performance of the various types of fins is presented with respect to the parameters: (1) Reynolds number, (2) fin pitch, (3) fin height, (4) fin thickness, (5) tube diameter, (6) tube pitch, (7) tube type, (8) number of tube rows, and (9) effect of dehumidifying conditions. In Section 5, the conclusions and the recommendations for the future work have been given.

  16. Gas exchange rates of potato stands for bioregenerative life support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Raymond M.; Stutte, Gary W.; Mackowiak, Cheryl L.; Yorio, Neil C.; Sager, John C.; Knott, William M.

    Plants can provide a means for removing carbon dioxide (CO2) while generating oxygen (O2) and clean water for life support systems in space. To study this, 20 m2 stands of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plants were grown in a large (113 m3 vol.), atmospherically closed chamber. Photosynthetic uptake of CO2 by the stands was detected about 10 DAP (days after planting), after which photosynthetic rates rose rapidly as stand ground cover and total light interception increased. Photosynthetic rates peaked ca. 50 DAP near 45 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 under 865 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF (average photosynthetic photon flux), and near 35 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 under 655 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF. Short term changes in PPF caused a linear response in stand photosynthetic rates up to 1100 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF, with a light compensation point of 185 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF. Comparisons of stand photosynthetic rates at different CO2 concentrations showed a classic C3 response, with saturation occurring near 1200 μmol mol-1 CO2 and compensation near 100 μmol mol-1 CO2. In one study, the photoperiod was changed from 12 h light/12 h dark to continuous light at 58 DAP. This caused a decrease in net photosynthetic rates within 48 h and eventual damage (scorching) of upper canopy leaves, suggesting the abrupt change stressed the plants and/or caused feedback effects on photosynthesis. Dark period (night) respiration rates increased during early growth as standing biomass increased and peaked near 9 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 ca. 50 DAP, after which rates declined gradually with age. Stand transpiration showed a rapid rise with canopy ground cover and peaked ca. 50 DAP near 8.9 L m-2 d-1 under 860 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF and near 6.3 L m-2 d-1 under 650 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF. Based on the best photosynthetic rates from these studies, approximately 25 m2 of potato plants under continuous cultivation would be required to support the CO2 removal and O2 requirements for one person.

  17. PEE-PEO block copolymer exchange rate between micelles is detergent and temperature activated

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schantz, Allen; Saboe, Patrick; Lee, Hee-Young; Sines, Ian; Butler, Paul; Bishop, Kyle; Maranas, Janna; Kumar, Manish

    We examine the kinetics of polymer chain exchange between polymer/detergent micelles, a system relevant to the synthesis of protein-containing biomimetic membranes. Although chain exchange between polymer aggregates in water is too slow to observe, adding detergent allows us to determine chain exchange rates using time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering (TR-SANS). We examine a membrane-protein-relevant, vesicle-forming ultra-short polymer, Poly(ethyl ethylene)20-Poly(ethylene oxide)18 (PEE20-PEO18). PEE20-PEO18 is solubilized in mixed micelles with the membrane-protein-compatible non-ionic detergent octyl- β -D-glucoside (OG). We show that OG activates block copolymer exchange, and obtain rate constants at two detergent concentrations above the CMC (critical micellar concentration) of OG. We find that chain exchange increases two orders of magnitude when temperature increases from 308 to 338 K, and that even a 1 mg/mL increase in OG concentration leads to a noticeable increase in exchange rate. We also calculate the activation energy for chain exchange and find that it is much higher than for lipid exchange. These findings explain the need for high detergent concentration and/or temperature to synthesize densely packed polymer/protein membranes.

  18. Measuring Infiltration Rates in Homes as a Basis for Understanding Indoor Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerz, G. G.; Lamb, B. K.; Pressley, S. N.; O'Keeffe, P.; Fuchs, M.; Kirk, M.

    2015-12-01

    Infiltration rates, or the rate of air exchange, of houses are important to understand because ventilation can be a dominate factor in determining indoor air quality. There are chemicals that are emitted from surfaces or point sources inside the home which are harmful to humans; these chemicals come from various objects including furniture, cleaning supplies, building materials, gas stoves, and the surrounding environment. The use of proper ventilation to cycle cleaner outdoor air into the house can be crucial for maintaining healthy living conditions in the home. At the same time, there can also be outdoor pollutants which infiltrate the house and contribute to poor indoor air quality. In either case, it is important to determine infiltration rates as a function of outdoor weather conditions, the house structure properties and indoor heating and cooling systems. In this work, the objective is to measure ventilation rates using periodic releases of a tracer gas and measuring how quickly the tracer concentration decays. CO2 will be used as the tracer gas because it is inert and harmless at low levels. An Arduino timer is connected to a release valve which controls the release of 9.00 SLPM of CO2 into the uptake vent within the test home. CO2 will be released until there is at least a 200 to 300 ppm increase above ambient indoor levels. Computers with CO2 sensors and temperature/pressure sensors attached will be used to record data from different locations within the home which will continuously record data up to a week. The results from these periodic ventilation measurements will be analyzed with respect to outdoor wind and temperature conditions and house structure properties. The data will be used to evaluate an established indoor air quality model.

  19. Experiments on air bubbles injection into a vertical shell and coiled tube heat exchanger; exergy and NTU analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Air bubbles injection was employed to enhance the performance of a vertical shell and coiled tube heat exchanger. • Air bubbles were injected into the shell side of heat exchanger via a new method at different conditions. • NTU enhancement and Exergy loss due to air bubbles injection were studied. • Present type of air bubble injection significantly increased the amount NTU and performance of heat exchanger. - Abstract: In this paper, attempts are made to increase the number of thermal units (NTU) and performance in a vertical shell and coiled tube heat exchanger via air bubble injection into the shell side of heat exchanger. Besides, exergy loss due to air bubble injection is investigated. Indeed, air bubble injection and bubbles mobility (because of buoyancy force) can intensify the NTU and exergy loss by mixing the thermal boundary layer and increasing the turbulence level of the fluid flow. Air bubbles were injected inside the heat exchanger via a special method and at new different conditions in this paper. It was demonstrated that the amount of NTU and effectiveness can be significantly improved due to air bubbles injection

  20. The impact of real oil price on real effective exchange rate: The case of Azerbaijan

    OpenAIRE

    Hasanov, Fakhri

    2010-01-01

    Using quarterly data from 2000-2007 and applying Error Correction Model and Johansen Co- integration Approaches I estimate the impact of real oil price on the real exchange rate of Azerbaijani manat. Estimation outputs derived from these approaches are very close to each other and indicate that real oil price has statistically significant positive impact on real exchange rate in the long-run. Besides, revealed that relative price as a proxy for productivity has also explana...

  1. The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature

    OpenAIRE

    Auboin, Marc; Ruta, Michel

    2011-01-01

    This paper surveys a wide body of economic literature on the relationship between currencies and trade. Specifically, two main issues are investigated: the impact on international trade of exchange rate volatility and of currency misalignments. On average, exchange rate volatility has a negative (even if not large) impact on trade flows. The extent of this effect depends on a number of factors, including the existence of hedging instruments, the structure of production (e.g. the prevalence of...

  2. Energy Prices and the Real Exchange Rate of Commodity-Exporting Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Dauvin, Magali

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between energy prices and the real effective exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries. We consider two sets of countries: 10 energy-exporting and 23 non-fuel commodity-exporting countries over the period 1980-2011. Estimating a panel cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, we provide evidence for the existence of "energy currencies". Relying on the estimation of panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) mod...

  3. Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic War: A Comparative Study of India and Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Khuram Shafi; Liu Hua; Zahra Idrees; Amna Nazeer

    2015-01-01

    Exchange rate has proved its behavior in determining the country economic position in this age of globalization and trade liberalization. Therefore, this research investigates that the determinants of trade i.e. Import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation brings changes in exchange rate and its influence eventually on balance of payments in comparison of Indian and Pakistani economies. Data of defined variables is collected on annual basis of India and Paki...

  4. Monetary Policy News and Exchange Rate Responses:Do Only Surprises Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Fatum, Rasmus; Scholnick, Barry

    2005-01-01

    This paper shows that exchange rates respond to only the surprise component of an actual US monetary policy change and that failure to disentangle the surprise component from the actual monetary policy change can lead to an underestimation of the impact of monetary policy, or even to a false acceptance of the hypothesis that monetary policy has no impact on exchange rates. This finding implies that there is a need for reexamining the empirical analyses of asset price responses to macro news t...

  5. Commodity Export Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: Coffee in Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastian Edwards

    1985-01-01

    In this paper a model that analyzes the interaction between changes in commodity export prices, money creation, inflation, and the real exchange rate in a developing country is developed. The model is then tested using data for Colombia. A number of experts have argued that the fluctuations of Colombia's real exchange rate have been mainly determined by world coffee price changes, with more observers emphasizing the consequences of coffee price changes on money creation and inflation. The res...

  6. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Malaysia before the Asian Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    So UMEZAKI

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides a case study to characterize the monetary policy regime in Malaysia, from a medium- and long-term perspective. Specifically, we ask how the central bank of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), has structured its monetary policy regime, and how it has conducted monetary and exchange rate policy under the regime. By conducting three empirical analyses, we characterize the monetary and exchange rate policy regime in Malaysia by three intermediate solutions on three vectors: ...

  7. Irish Results of the BIS Foreign Exchange and Interest Rate Derivatives Survey 2013

    OpenAIRE

    Menton, Aisling

    2014-01-01

    The Central Bank of Ireland participated in the most recent survey of global turnover in foreign exchange and over-the-counter single-currency interest rate derivatives. The survey is coordinated by the Bank for International Settlements every three years, and Ireland has participated since 1995. The survey results for Ireland show a sharp fall in turnover in both foreign exchange and interest rate derivatives since the last survey in 2010. There are two driving factors behind the decline bet...

  8. Exchange Rate Arrangements in Central and Eastern European Countries – Evolutions and Characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Ramona TOMA

    2007-01-01

    The process of choosing the exchange rate regime for the new EU member states has been influenced by other criteria than the traditional ones, which belong to macroeconomic criteria. This paper make a comparative analyze of the exchange rate arrangements in Central and Eastern European after 1990. These arrangements are dynamic on the one hand due to their permanent diversification and on the other hand because the values established this way are rapidly changing. In essence, they differ acco...

  9. Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance for the G20 countries

    OpenAIRE

    Audrey Sallenave

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the growth effects of real effective exchange rate misalignments for the G20 countries over the period 1980-2006. To this end, we first estimate real effective equilibrium exchange rates relying on the behavioral approach BEER, from which misalignments are derived. Second, we estimate a dynamic panel growth model in which among the traditional determinants of growth, our measure of misalignments is included. Our findings put forward some important differences between developed and...

  10. AN INVESTIGATION OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON TURKISH TEXTILE AND APPAREL EXPORT

    OpenAIRE

    Selim Adem Hatirli; Kübra Onder

    2010-01-01

    Due to significant contributions of textile and apparel industry in terms of employment, export opportunities and industrial value added, it has a crucial role in the Turkish economy. Even there are many factors influencing the export performance of this sector, real exchange rate is one of the significant factors. In this study, we investigated the causal relationship between the real exchange rate and export of textile and apparel industry by using monthly data, covering from 1998-2008. Exc...

  11. The Impacts of Chinese Exchange Rate Policy on World Soybean and Products Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Luo, Ji; Williams, Gary W.

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the impacts of China’s exchange rate policy on commodity market with a lengthy vertical supply chain. By taking the soybean industry as a case, the analysis considers the joint effects of the undervaluation of the RMB/$US exchange rate and the interactions along vertical supply chain relative to prices, supplies, demands, and trade of world soybean and soybean products, In the analysis, the effects of China’s monetary policy of RMB undervaluation on world soybean, soybean ...

  12. Remittances, exchange rate regimes, and the Dutch disease: a panel data analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Emmanuel K. K. Lartey; Mandelman, Federico S; Pablo A. Acosta

    2008-01-01

    Using disaggregated sectorial data, this study shows that rising levels of remittances have spending effects that lead to real exchange rate appreciation and resource movement effects that favor the nontradable sector at the expense of tradable goods production. These characteristics are two aspects of the phenomenon known as Dutch disease. The results further indicate that these effects operate more strongly under fixed nominal exchange rate regimes.

  13. Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?

    OpenAIRE

    Ruy Lama; Juan Pablo Medina

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates how successful a policy of exchange rate stabilization is in counteracting the negative effects of a Dutch disease episode. We consider a small open-economy model that incorporates nominal rigidities and a learning-bydoing externality in the tradable sector. The paper shows that leaning against an appreciated exchange rate can prevent an inefficient loss of tradable output but at the cost of generating a misallocation of resources in other sectors of the economy. The pape...

  14. On the Benefits of Exchange Rate Flexibility under Endogenous Tradedness of Goods

    OpenAIRE

    Kanda Naknoi; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton

    2005-01-01

    Previous efforts to compare the costs and benefits of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes have ignored the fact that it takes significant resources and time to develop export markets, and they have not included an analysis of the firm-level decision to enter or exit export markets. This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of endogenous tradedness of goods on the welfare gains from exchange rate flexibility. The actual range of traded go...

  15. A Fix-Price Trade Model with Perfect Capital Mobility : Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Cuddington, John T

    1983-01-01

    This paper extends the two-sector analysis of macroeconomic policies in temporary equilibrium with quantity rationing to include both money and internationally traded bonds as financial assets. By eliminating the assumption that money is the only asset, an acceptable treatment of flexible exchange rate regimes becomes possible. The efficacy of Monetary, fiscal, and wage policies is compared under alternative non-market-clearing regimes and exchange rate systems. Noteworthy is the dramatic dif...

  16. The contribution of the ECU to exchange rate stability. A reply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. JAGER

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A brief reply to Sarcinelli’s criticism of the authors’ article The private ECU’s potential impact on Global and European exchange-rate stability (1988. The authors rebut the criticisms and seek to clarify their reasoning. They maintain their core hypothesis that the growth of the ECU does not necessarily enhance the stability of exchange rates but may lead to instability too.

  17. Exchange Rate Undervaluation and Sectoral Performance of the South African Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Njindan Iyke, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    The paper uncovers the channels through which real exchange rate undervaluation influences the performance of the South African economy. We decompose the South African economy into three sectors, namely: agriculture, industry, and service. Using the OLS (with Newey-West and robust standard errors), and GMM estimation techniques; an annual time series data covering the period 1962-2014; and a standard regression model for each sector, we find: (i) real exchange rate undervaluation to exert pos...

  18. High temperature collecting performance of a new all-glass evacuated tubular solar air heater with U-shaped tube heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • A novel solar air heater with simplified CPC and U-type heat exchanger is designed and tested. • The system is made up of 10 linked collecting panels. • Simplified CPC has a much lower cost at the expense of slight efficiency loss. • The air heater can propose the heated air exceeding 200 °C with great air flow rate. - Abstract: Experiment and simulation are conducted on a new-type all-glass evacuated tubular solar air heater with simplified compound parabolic concentrator (CPC). The system is made up of 10 linked collecting panels and each panel includes a simplified CPC and an all-glass evacuated tube with a U-shaped copper tube heat exchanger installed inside. Air is gradually heated when passing through each U-shaped copper tube. The heat transfer model of the solar air heater is established and the outlet air temperature, the heat power and heat efficiency are calculated. Calculated and experimental results show that the present experimental system can provide the heated air exceeding 200 °C. The whole system has an outstanding high-temperature collecting performance and the present heat transfer model can meet the general requirements of engineering calculations

  19. Determination of the Electron Self-Exchange Rates of Blue Copper Proteins by Super-WEFT NMR Spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Lixin; Philipp, Else Astrid; Led, Jens J.

    2001-01-01

    Anabaena variabilis plastocyanin, blue copper proteins, electron self-exchange rates, electron transfer, super-WEFT NMR......Anabaena variabilis plastocyanin, blue copper proteins, electron self-exchange rates, electron transfer, super-WEFT NMR...

  20. Exchange rate volatility and export growth in India: An ARDL bounds testing approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Srinivasan

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the real exports in India using the ARDL bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001. Using annual time series data, the empirical analyses has been carried out for the period 1970 to 2011. The study results confirm that real exports are cointegrated with exchange rate volatility, real exchange rate, gross domestic product and foreign economic activity. Our findings indicate that the exchange rate volatility has significant negative impact on real exports both in the short-run and long-run, implying that higher exchange rate fluctuation tends to reduce real exports in India. Besides, the real exchange rate has negative short-run and positive long-run effects on real exports. The empirical results reveal that GDP has a positive and significant impact on India’s real exports in the long-run, but the impact turns out to be insignificant in the short-run. In addition, the foreign economic activity exerts significant negative and positive impact on real exports in the short-run and long-run, respectively.

  1. Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Thorstensen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

  2. Forecasting of currency exchange rates using an adaptive ARMA model with differential evolution based training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minakhi Rout

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To alleviate the limitations of statistical based methods of forecasting of exchange rates, soft and evolutionary computing based techniques have been introduced in the literature. To further the research in this direction this paper proposes a simple but promising hybrid prediction model by suitably combining an adaptive autoregressive moving average (ARMA architecture and differential evolution (DE based training of its feed-forward and feed-back parameters. Simple statistical features are extracted for each exchange rate using a sliding window of past data and are employed as input to the prediction model for training its internal coefficients using DE optimization strategy. The prediction efficiency is validated using past exchange rates not used for training purpose. Simulation results using real life data are presented for three different exchange rates for one–fifteen months’ ahead predictions. The results of the developed model are compared with other four competitive methods such as ARMA-particle swarm optimization (PSO, ARMA-cat swarm optimization (CSO, ARMA-bacterial foraging optimization (BFO and ARMA-forward backward least mean square (FBLMS. The derivative based ARMA-FBLMS forecasting model exhibits worst prediction performance of the exchange rates. Comparisons of different performance measures including the training time of the all three evolutionary computing based models demonstrate that the proposed ARMA-DE exchange rate prediction model possesses superior short and long range prediction potentiality compared to others.

  3. Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships between Spanish electricity spot prices and the US dollar/Euro (USD/Euro) exchange rate during the period 2005-2007, taking into account the study of the association between dollar and oil prices, in order to better understand the evolution of the former over time. The first finding in this study is that Spanish electricity spots prices, the USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices are cointegrated; therefore there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three variables. Short-run relationships have been detected between oil prices and Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate in the sense that Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate are affected by oil prices in the short run. There is a transmission of volatility between USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices to Spanish electricity prices; so although Spanish electricity prices are not affected in level by the movements of USD/Euro exchange rate, they are in volatility. In this kind of scenario the conclusions confirm that for countries so dependent on external causes as Spain, one possible solution for guarantying the energy security would be the promotion of the renewable energies. Therefore we cannot ignore the impact in the internal expenses of the cost of installation and generation of green energies so there must be a balance between the increase in renewables and the reasonable market price of the electricity. (author)

  4. Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martins Iyoboyi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments (BOP in Nigeria over the period 1961–2012. The analysis is based on a multivariate vector error correction framework. A long-term equilibrium relationship was found between BOP, exchange rate and other associated variables. The empirical results are in favour of bidirectional causality between BOP and other variables employed. Results of the generalized impulse response functions suggest that one standard deviation innovation on exchange rate reduces positive BOP in the medium and long term, while results of the variance decomposition indicate that a significant variation in Nigeria’s BOP is not due to changes in exchange rate movements. The policy implication is that exchange rate depreciation which has been preponderant in Nigeria since the mid-1980s has not been very useful in promoting the country’s positive BOP. It is recommended that growth in the real sector should be improved to enhance exports, create employment, curb inflation and reduce poverty, while cutting non-productive imports, attracting foreign private investment and implementing well coordinated macroeconomic policies that impact inflation positively and stimulate exchange rate stability.

  5. Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munoz, M. Pilar [Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Jordi Girona, 1-3. 08034 Barcelona (Spain); Dickey, David A. [Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, 2311 Stinson Drive, Raleigh, NC 27695-8203 (United States)

    2009-11-15

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships between Spanish electricity spot prices and the US dollar/Euro (USD/Euro) exchange rate during the period 2005-2007, taking into account the study of the association between dollar and oil prices, in order to better understand the evolution of the former over time. The first finding in this study is that Spanish electricity spots prices, the USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices are cointegrated; therefore there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three variables. Short-run relationships have been detected between oil prices and Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate in the sense that Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate are affected by oil prices in the short run. There is a transmission of volatility between USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices to Spanish electricity prices; so although Spanish electricity prices are not affected in level by the movements of USD/Euro exchange rate, they are in volatility. In this kind of scenario the conclusions confirm that for countries so dependent on external causes as Spain, one possible solution for guarantying the energy security would be the promotion of the renewable energies. Therefore we cannot ignore the impact in the internal expenses of the cost of installation and generation of green energies so there must be a balance between the increase in renewables and the reasonable market price of the electricity. (author)

  6. The air-kerma rate constant of 192Ir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ninković, M M; Raiĉevìć, J J

    1993-01-01

    The air-kerma rate constant gamma delta (and its precursors), as one of the basic radiation characteristics of 192Ir, was determined by many authors. Analysis of accessible data on this quantity led us to the conclusion that published data strongly disagree. That is the reason we calculated this quantity on the basis of our and many other authors' gamma-ray spectral data and the latest data for mass energy-transfer coefficients for air. In this way, a value was obtained for gamma delta of 30.0 +/- 0.9 a Gy m2 s-1 Bq-1 for an unshielded 192Ir source and 27.8 +/- 0.9 a Gy m2s -1Bq-1 for a standard packaged radioactive source taking into account attenuation of gamma rays in the platinum source wall. PMID:8416220

  7. The Renminbi Exchange Rate Reform and the Rebalancing of China’s Growth Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANBO; SONG; SEAN; MACKINNON; SONGTAO; TAN

    2015-01-01

    This paper posits that a proper way to estimate the Renminbi(RMB) exchange rate is to base the evaluation on the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and that the optimal way to facilitate China’s growth model transformation is gradual RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization. Regression estimates show that the gross domestic product per capita growth rate, or the productivity growth rate, has strong explanatory validity when estimating the RMB exchange rate. The findings further assert that, as the growth of gross fixed capital formation slows, and the growth of household consumption speeds up, China’s economic growth will be sustained. The RMB exchange rate regime is one in which gradual reforms must yield to interest rates levels and hence should only be revalued conditionally.

  8. Multifractal analysis of managed and independent float exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stošić, Darko; Stošić, Dusan; Stošić, Tatijana; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2015-06-01

    We investigate multifractal properties of daily price changes in currency rates using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). We analyze managed and independent floating currency rates in eight countries, and determine the changes in multifractal spectrum when transitioning between the two regimes. We find that after the transition from managed to independent float regime the changes in multifractal spectrum (position of maximum and width) indicate an increase in market efficiency. The observed changes are more pronounced for developed countries that have a well established trading market. After shuffling the series, we find that the multifractality is due to both probability density function and long term correlations for managed float regime, while for independent float regime multifractality is in most cases caused by broad probability density function.

  9. Predicting sharp depreciations in industrial country exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan H. Wright; Joseph E. Gagnon

    2006-01-01

    This paper considers the prediction of large depreciations (both nominal and real) in a panel of industrialized countries using a probit methodology. The current account balance/GDP ratio has a modest but statistically significant effect on the estimated probability of a large depreciation, and gives slight predictive power in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. The CPI inflation rate also has a modest but statistically significant effect in predicting nominal depreciations and has slight ...

  10. Mercury Exchange at the Air-Water-Soil Interface: An Overview of Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengman Fang

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt is made to assess the present knowledge about the methods of determining mercury (Hg exchange at the air-water-soil interface during the past 20 years. Methods determining processes of wet and dry removal/deposition of atmospheric Hg to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, as well as methods determining Hg emission fluxes to the atmosphere from natural surfaces (soil and water are discussed. On the basis of the impressive advances that have been made in the areas relating to Hg exchange among air-soil-water interfaces, we analyzed existing problems and shortcomings in our current knowledge. In addition, some important fields worth further research are discussed and proposed.

  11. The exchange of SVOCs across the air-sea interface in Singapore's coastal environment

    OpenAIRE

    He, J.; Balasubramanian, R

    2010-01-01

    Coastal areas are vulnerable to the accumulation of semivolatile organic compounds, such as PAHs, OCPs and PCBs from atmospheric inputs. Dry particulate and wet depositions, and air-water diffusive exchange in the Singapore's south coastal area, where most of chemical and oil refinery industries are situated in, were estimated. Based on a yearly dataset, the mean annual dry particulate deposition fluxes of ∑16-PAHs, ∑7 OCPs and &am...

  12. TRADE, EXCHANGE RATE AND AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN MALAYSIA

    OpenAIRE

    Glenn Jenkins; Andrew Lai

    1989-01-01

    Malaysia, a country of approximately 16 million people which gained independence in 1957, relied heavily on trade to achieve substantial growth in GNP during the 1960s (6.7 percent per year) and 1970s (10.5 percent per year). In the period 1980-83, however, the rate slipped to 3.1 percent per year. Malaysia’s traditional exports are natural rubber and palm oil, but in the 1970s the country also became an important exporter of crude oil. During the study period (1960-83) government interventio...

  13. Examination of the effects of public spending and trade policy on real exchange rate in Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victalice Ngimanang ACHAMOH

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The study adopts the inter-temporal model of Rodríguez (1989 and Edward (1989 extended in Elbadawi and Soto (1997 to empirically examine the effect of public expenditure and trade openness on the real exchange rate using Cameroon data from 1977 to 2010. After exploring some issues on exchange rate and reviewing the relevant literature, the study employs residual based-cointegration technique. All the variables were stationary at level form or first differences. Public spending significantly appreciates the real exchange likewise the trade openness variable in the longrun. The results of the study suggests that appreciation of real exchange rate could be prevented by contracting public spending or adopting restrictive trade measures especially in the long run.

  14. Taxation of the exchange rates differences dilemma in the context of VAT in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Güneş Yılmaz

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate differences, which involve negative or positive value changes to a particular currency unit against another during the buying and selling exchange process, might as well involve gaps or deficiencies in legal arrangements that in turn result in different interpretations and applications. Controversies regarding this issue are observed particularly in the context of Value Added Tax Legislation.It is observed that there exists an ongoing conflict between the Council of State and taxation authorities on whether or not the exchange rate differences should be included in determining VAT. This also causes academics, experts and implementers to pursue diverse interpretations and applications. A number of intelligible arrangements regarding the taxation of exchange rate differences with respect to VAT should be made urgently to amend the gaps in law.

  15. COINTEGRATION BETWEEN STOCK MARKET INDICES AND NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES: EVIDENCE FROM TRANSITION COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesna Prorok

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the interdependence between stock market indices and exchange rates in four transition countries: Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The analysis is based on monthly data for the nominal exchange stock market indices and nominal exchange rates over the period from March 2010 to March 2015. The main objective of this work is to determine whether the exchange rates had a significant impact on future trends in the capital markets and vice versa. Empirical analysis has shown that the series are stationary in the first differences, and using both Engle-Granger cointegration and Granger causality test it has been shown, as well, that there is neither long-run nor short-run relationship between these two variables. In other words, it means that prediction of movement of one variable cannot be based on past values of other variable

  16. Prototype Systems for Measuring Outdoor Air Intake Rates in Rooftop Air Handlers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chan, Wanyu R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hotchi, Toshifumi [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The widespread absence of systems for real-time measurement and feedback control, of minimum outdoor air intake rates in HVAC systems contributes to the poor control of ventilation rates in commercial buildings. Ventilation rates affect building energy consumption and influence occupant health. The project designed fabricated and tested four prototypes of systems for measuring rates of outdoor air intake into roof top air handlers. All prototypes met the ±20% accuracy target at low wind speeds, with all prototypes accurate within approximately ±10% after application of calibration equations. One prototype met the accuracy target without a calibration. With two of four prototype measurement systems, there was no evidence that wind speed or direction affected accuracy; however, winds speeds were generally below usually 3.5 m s-1 (12.6 km h-1) and further testing is desirable. The airflow resistance of the prototypes was generally less than 35 Pa at maximum RTU air flow rates. A pressure drop of this magnitude will increase fan energy consumption by approximately 4%. The project did not have resources necessary to estimate costs of mass produced systems. The retail cost of components and materials used to construct prototypes ranged from approximately $1,200 to $1,700. The test data indicate that the basic designs developed in this project, particularly the designs of two of the prototypes, have considerable merit. Further design refinement, testing, and cost analysis would be necessary to fully assess commercial potential. The designs and test results will be communicated to the HVAC manufacturing community.

  17. Performance of Exchange Rate Forecast Using Distance-Based Fuzzy Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lazim Abdullah

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy time series model has been employed by many researchers in forecasting activities such as students’ enrolment, temperature fluctuations and stock prices. The existing fuzzy time series modelsrequire exact match of the fuzzy logic relationships to calculate the forecasted value. However, in real life applications, the exact match of fuzzy logic relationships is not possible. Thus, an improved fuzzy time series model termed as distance-based fuzzy time series model was proposed to remedy this shortcoming and successfully tested to the case of exchange rate data of New Taiwan Dollar (NTD against United States Dollar (USD. The model was reportedly outperformed the artificial neural network and random walk models for the NTD against USD exchange rate. However, the performance of exchange rate usingthe distance-based fuzzy times series model for other currencies is still not fully explored. This paper forecasts the exchange rate of Malaysian Ringgit (MYR against USD and tests the performance of theexchange rate using a distance-based fuzzy time series model. Data of the exchange rate USD against MYR from 11 August 2009 to 15 September 2009 were tested to the forecasting model. A sample of performance comparison between data sets of MYR against USD and NTD against USD was conducted. Under the same forecasting model, it is found that the forecasting errors for MYR against USD were smaller than NTD against USD exchange rate. The experiment results show that the forecasted exchange rate of MYR against USD has performed better under the distance-based fuzzy time series model.

  18. An empirical study of exchange rate pass-through in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Xiaowen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to estimate exchange rate pass-through in China and investigate its relationship with monetary policy. Linear and VAR models are applied to analyze robustness. The linear model shows that, over the long run, a 1% appreciation of NEER causes a decline in the CPI inflation rate of 0.132% and PPI inflation rate of 0.495%. The VAR model supports the results of the linear model, suggesting a fairly low CPI pass-through and relatively higher PPI pass-through. Furthermore, this paper finds that, with the fixed exchange rate regime, CPI pass-through remains higher. The exchange rate regimes influence on CPI pass through, combined with the fact that appreciation diminishes inflation, suggests that the Chinese government could pursue a more flexible exchange rate policy. In addition, reasons for low exchange rate pass-through for CPI are analyzed. The analysis considers price control, basket and weight of Chinese price indices, distribution cost, and imported and non-tradable share of inputs.

  19. External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Deviations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Caputo

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available There is substantial evidence suggesting that central banks in open economies react to exchange rate fluctuations, in addition to expected inflation and output. In some developing countries this reaction is comparatively larger and it is nonlinear. In an estimated structural macromodel for Chile, this paper assesses the advantages and potential costs of adopting such a reaction function. We conclude that, in the face of most of the external shocks, a policy rule that responds to exchange rate misalignments smooths inflation and output variability, while marginally increasing interest rate fluctuations. On the other hand, for some domestic innovations such a rule performs poorly. When all the shocks are considered at the same time, this rule generates important welfare gains. Finally, when the volatility of external shocks rises, increasing the response to exchange rate misalignments brings welfare improvements. In fact, a more aggressive response to the exchange rate offsets the impact that greater external volatility has on output and inflation, at the cost of inducing higher interest rate fluctuations. In this way, one can interpret the nonlinear reaction to the exchange rate as an optimal response to a more volatile external environment.

  20. Spatial Distribution and Air-Water Exchange of Organic Flame Retardants in the Lower Great Lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonough, Carrie A; Puggioni, Gavino; Helm, Paul A; Muir, Derek; Lohmann, Rainer

    2016-09-01

    Organic flame retardants (OFRs) such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and novel halogenated flame retardants (NHFRs) are ubiquitous, persistent, and bioaccumulative contaminants that have been used in consumer goods to slow combustion. In this study, polyethylene passive samplers (PEs) were deployed throughout the lower Great Lakes (Lake Erie and Lake Ontario) to measure OFRs in air and water, calculate air-water exchange fluxes, and investigate spatial trends. Dissolved Σ12BDE was greatest in Lake Ontario near Toronto (18 pg/L), whereas gaseous Σ12BDE was greatest on the southern shoreline of Lake Erie (11 pg/m(3)). NHFRs were generally below detection limits. Air-water exchange was dominated by absorption of BDEs 47 and 99, ranging from -964 pg/m(2)/day to -30 pg/m(2)/day. Σ12BDE in air and water was significantly correlated with surrounding population density, suggesting that phased-out PBDEs continued to be emitted from population centers along the Great Lakes shoreline in 2012. Correlation with dissolved Σ12BDE was strongest when considering population within 25 km while correlation with gaseous Σ12BDE was strongest when using population within 3 km to the south of each site. Bayesian kriging was used to predict dissolved Σ12BDE over the lakes, illustrating the utility of relatively highly spatially resolved measurements in identifying potential hot spots for future study.

  1. Air-soil exchange of mercury from background soils in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ericksen, J A; Gustin, M S; Xin, M; Weisberg, P J; Fernandez, G C J

    2006-08-01

    The air-surface exchange of mercury (Hg) was measured, using a dynamic polycarbonate flux chamber, for soils with low or "background" Hg concentrations (pine forest ecosystems (n=1326 soil flux measurements at 46 individual sites). An overall soil Hg flux of 0.9+/-0.2 ng/m2/h for these background soils was obtained by averaging the means for the different locations. Soil Hg fluxes were significantly lower in dark conditions than in the light for all but the grassland sites. Mean inlet air Hg concentrations were 1.0+/-0.1 ng/m3 in the dark and 1.3+/-0.2 ng/m3 in the light. Soil temperature inside and outside of the chamber, air temperature, relative humidity, and irradiance were measured concurrently with soil Hg flux. Soil-air Hg exchange was weakly predicted by environmental variables (R2 from 0.07 to 0.52). For a single location, flux was better correlated with soil moisture than other measured environmental parameters, suggesting that soil moisture might be an important driver for Hg emissions from background soils. In addition, based on data collected we suggest some quality control measures for use of Tekran 2537A analyzers when measuring low mercury fluxes. Using basic scaling procedures, we roughly estimate that natural emissions from soils in the contiguous U.S. release approximately 100 Mg/yr of Hg to the atmosphere. PMID:16181661

  2. Air-sea heat exchange, an element of the water cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahine, M. T.

    1984-01-01

    The distribution and variation of water vapor, clouds and precipitation are examined. Principal driving forces for these distributions are energy exchange and evaporation at the air-sea interface, which are also important elements of air-sea interaction studies. The overall aim of air-sea interaction studies is to quantitatively determine mass, momentum and energy fluxes, with the goal of understanding the mechanisms controlling them. The results of general circulation simulations indicate that the atmosphere in mid-latitudes responds to changes in the oceanic surface conditions in the tropics. This correlation reflects the strong interaction between tropical and mid-latitude conditions caused by the transport of heat and momentum from the tropics. Studies of air-sea exchanges involve a large number of physica, chemical and dynamical processes including heat flux, radiation, sea-surface temperature, precipitation, winds and ocean currents. The fluxes of latent heat are studied and the potential use of satellite data in determining them evaluated. Alternative ways of inferring heat fluxes will be considered.

  3. Effectiveness and humidification capacity investigation of liquid-to-air membrane energy exchanger under low heat capacity ratios at winter air conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassai, Miklos

    2015-06-01

    In this research, a novel small-scale single-panel liquid-to-air membrane energy exchanger has been used to numerically investigate the effect of given number of heat transfer units (4.5), different cold inlet air temperature (1.7, 5.0, 10.0 °C) and different low heat capacity ratio (0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9) on the steady-state performance of the energy exchanger. This small-scale energy exchanger represents the full-scale prototypes well, saving manufacturing costs and time. Lithium chloride is used as a salt solution in the system and the steady-state total effectiveness of the exchanger is evaluated for winter inlet air conditions. The results show that total effectiveness of the energy exchanger decreases with heat capacity ratio in the mentioned range. Maximum numerical total effectiveness of 97% is achieved for the energy exchanger. Increasing the heat capacity ratio values on given inlet air temperature, the humidification capacity of energy exhanger is also investigated in this paper. The humidification performance increases with heat capacity ratio. The highest humidification performance (4.53 g/kg) can be reached when inlet air temperature is 1.7 °C, and heat capacity ratio is 1.0 in winter inlet air conditions in the range of low heat capacity ratio.

  4. The effects of rice canopy on the air-soil exchange of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorine pesticides using paired passive air samplers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Wang, Shaorui; Luo, Chunling; Li, Jun; Ming, Lili; Zhang, Gan; Li, Xiangdong

    2015-05-01

    The rice canopy in paddy fields can influence the air-soil exchange of organic chemicals. We used paired passive air samplers to assess the exchange of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in a paddy field, South China. Levels of OCPs and light PAHs were generally higher under the canopy than above it. We found that the rice canopy can physically obstruct the evaporation of most OCPs and light PAHs, and can also act as a barrier to the gaseous deposition of p,p'-DDT and heavy PAHs. Paddy fields can behave as a secondary source of OCPs and light PAHs. The homolog patterns of these two types of chemical varied slightly between the air below and above the rice canopy, implying contributions of different sources. Paired passive air samplers can be used effectively to assess the in situ air-soil exchange of PAHs and OCPs in subtropical paddy fields. PMID:25686886

  5. Capital accumulation, structural change and real exchange rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist growth model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oreiro José Luis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to show at theoretical level that maintaining a competitive real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model that combines elements of Kaleckian growth models with the balance of payments constrained growth models pioneered developed by Thirlwall. In this setting, the level of real exchange rate is capable, due to its effect over capital accumulation, to induce a structural change in the economy, making endogenous income elasticities of exports and imports. For reasonable parameter values it is shown that in steady-state growth there is two long-run equilibrium values for real exchange rate, one that corresponds to an under-valued currency and another that corresponds to an over-valued currency. If monetary authorities run exchange rate policy in order to target a competitive level for real exchange rate, than under-valued equilibrium is stable and the economy will show a high growth rate in the long-run.

  6. R&D on Resistive Heat Exchangers for HTS High Rated Current Leads%R&D on Resistive Heat Exchangers for HTS High Rated Current Leads

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毕延芳

    2011-01-01

    The HTS current leads of superconducting magnets for large scale fusion devices and high energy particle colliders can reduce the power consumption for cooling by 2/3 compared with conventional leads. The resistive sections of high-rated current leads are usually made of a heat exchanger cooled by gas flow. The supply of the cooling mass flow incurs more than 90% of the cooling cost for the HTS leads. The mass flow rate requirement depends not only on the length and material of the resistive heat exchanger, but also on the heat transfer coefficient and HEX surface, the joint resistance at the cold end of a sheet-stack HEX with a larger specific presented in the paper. The test results of efficiency can be achieved. and its cooling approach. The design and operation surface and a much smaller hydraulic diameter are an HTS lead optimized for 8 kA show that a 98.4%

  7. Possible health effects of energy conservation: impairment of indoor air quality due to reduction of ventilation rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efforts to reduce the energy needs to heat or cool dwellings have the potential to create new health hazards. Increases in indoor levels of radon and its progeny from the reduction in air exchange rates add a substantial radioactive burden to the general population. Other indoor pollutants reaching critical concentrations in homes with low air exchange rates are CO and NO2 from unvented combustion in gas stoves and heaters, tobacco smoke, and asbestos fibers. In addition, insulation materials and certain types of furniture may contribute the toxicant formaldehyde diffusing from foam injected walls or chipboard. Risk estimations using linear dose-response relationships show risk factors per kWh saved which are orders of magnitude greater than for a kWh produced by large power plants using coal, oil, gas, or uranium. (author)

  8. Preliminary Analysis on Heat Removal Capacity of Passive Air-Water Combined Cooling Heat Exchanger Using MARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Seung-Sin; Jeon, Seong-Su; Hong, Soon-Joon [FNC Tech, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Bae, Sung-Won; Kwon, Tae-Soon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Current design requirement for working time of PAFS heat exchanger is about 8 hours. Thus, it is not satisfied with the required cooling capability for the long term SBO(Station Black-Out) situation that is required to over 72 hours cooling. Therefore PAFS is needed to change of design for 72 hours cooling. In order to acquirement of long terms cooling using PAFS, heat exchanger tube has to be submerged in water tank for long time. However, water in the tank is evaporated by transferred heat from heat exchanger tubes, so water level is gradually lowered as time goes on. The heat removal capacity of air cooling heat exchanger is core parameter that is used for decision of applicability on passive air-water combined cooling system using PAFS in long term cooling. In this study, the development of MARS input model and plant accident analysis are performed for the prediction of the heat removal capacity of air cooling heat exchanger. From analysis result, it is known that inflow air velocity is the decisive factor of the heat removal capacity and predicted air velocity is lower than required air velocity. But present heat transfer model and predicted air velocity have uncertainty. So, if changed design of PAFS that has over 4.6 kW heat removal capacity in each tube, this type heat exchanger can be applied to long term cooling of the nuclear power plant.

  9. Air renewal times and ventilation rate calculations for underground workings using radioactive measurement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ayman A. El-Abnoudy⇑; Sayed F. Hassan

    2016-01-01

    Potential alpha emitters are of prime concern to the ventilation engineer due to their rapid concentration increasing once radon released in the mine atmosphere, causing tissue irradiation and lung cancer. Studying of the time based variations of the natural ventilation in tunnels and their relationship to the external parameters contribute to the air circulation assessment. Due to the continuous and high fluctu-ation of the meteorological conditions affecting the air circulation and intensity through the underground workings, there is a difficulty in the natural ventilation assessment by only the ordinary meteorological measurements. So, in this paper, the possibility of using the radioactive measurements, allowing for the air aging and ventilation quality to be qualified, is investigated through three different underground structures. Referring to the most confined structure of them, results show that one structure has a better exchange rate by a factor 1.8 and the other has the best rate by a factor 2.1. This parameter can be linked to the operating costs and size of a future ventilation system.

  10. An application of recently developed time series analysis to black market real exchange rates in the Pacific Basin countries

    OpenAIRE

    Kassimatis, Y.

    1994-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to perform a comprehensive time series analysis of real and nominal exchange rates for the following Pacific-Basin countries: Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand in the seventies and eighties. The largest part of the research concentrates on the behaviour of real exchange rates. Contrary to most research that has been carried out so far, the exchange rate quotations for the calculation of the real exchange r...

  11. An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil’s Real Plan, 1994-1999

    OpenAIRE

    Campa, José Manuel; Chang, Kevin; Refalo, James F.

    2000-01-01

    This Paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-US dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through to March 1999. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the ‘crawling peg’ and target zone (‘maxiband’) regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an excha...

  12. Options-based analysis of emerging market exchange rate expectations: Brazil's real plan, 1994-1999, An

    OpenAIRE

    Jose M. Campa; Chang, Kevin; Refalo, James F.

    2000-01-01

    This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through March 1999. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the "crawling peg" and target zone ("maxiband") regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an exchan...

  13. WHEN AND WHY WORRY ABOUT REAL EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION? THE MISSING LINK BETWEEN DUTCH DISEASE AND GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    NICOLÁS MAGUD; SEBASTIÁN SOSA

    2013-01-01

    We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchan...

  14. Autonomy and Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy under the De Facto Fixed Exchange Rate System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huayu Sun

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses monthly data to examine the autonomy and effectiveness of monetary policy in China under the de facto fixed exchange rate arrangement in place from 1998 to 2005. The results obtained from Granger causality tests in a vector autoregresslon framework indicate that: (i) China actually conducted independent monetary policy during the fired exchange rate period; and (ii) market-oriented policy measures are impotent in influencing real output and prices. The framework of the investigation into the autonomy of monetary policy adapts to the Chinese economic condition that primary loan and deposit rates are set by the central bank. Based on the empirical results, the present paper provides alternative strategies to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, including developing the financial system and solidifying microeconoraic fundamentals instead of forcing the adaptation of a more flexible exchange rate regime.

  15. Dynamic Linkages between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Iran and South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akbar Tavakoli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of present study is to analyze the relationship between stock and exchange markets in two Asian countries, Iran and South Korea. A monthly time series of stock price and exchange rate are used over the period 2002: 05 - 2012: 03. The data is collected from the Central Bank of each country and WDI. The calculated stock return and real exchange rate change are used in analysis. An econometric multiple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH BEKK method and the Rats software are applied to analyze a dynamic relationship between two markets in each country. The estimated results show a bidirectional relationship between two markets in South Korean economy and only a unidirectional relationship from exchange market to stock market in Iranian economy. The persistence of volatility transmission effects of each market on its own is also found in each economy. In the exchange market, this effect is in opposite direction in Iran compared to Korea, whereas in the stock market both effects are positive and almost the same in two economies. The policy implication of finding is clear. The financial policymakers should watch both stock and exchange markets in two economies to prevent the bidirectional volatility effects between two markets in Korea and the unidirectional volatility from the exchange market to sock market in Iran.

  16. Liquid metal heat transfer in heat exchangers under low flow rate conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present paper describes the liquid metal heat transfer in heat exchangers under low flow rate conditions. Measured data from some experiments indicate that heat transfer coefficients of liquid metals at very low Péclet number are much lower than what are predicted by the well-known empirical relations. The cause of this phenomenon was not fully understood for many years. In the present study, one countercurrent-type heat exchanger is analyzed using three, separated countercurrent heat exchanger models: one is a heat exchanger model in the tube bank region, while the upper and lower plena are modeled as two heat exchangers with a single heat transfer tube. In all three heat exchangers, the same empirical correlation is used in the heat transfer calculation on the tube and the shell sides. The Nusselt number, as a function of the Péclet number, calculated from measured temperature and flow rate data in a 50 MW experimental facility was correctly reproduced by the calculation result, when the calculated result is processed in the same way as the experiment. Finally, it is clarified that the deviation is a superficial phenomenon which is caused by the heat transfer in the plena of the heat exchanger. (author)

  17. Effect of Air Cleaning Technologies in Conjunction With the Use of Rotary Heat Exchangers in Residential Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Afshari, Alireza; Bergsøe, Niels Christian; Ekberg, Lars

    2013-01-01

    This study is part of a research project concerning the possibilities of applying efficient air cleaning technologies using rotary heat exchanger in residential buildings. The purpose of this project was to identify and adapt new air-cleaning technologies for implementation in HVAC systems...... with rotary air-to-air heat exchangers. For this purpose, a mechanical filter with low pressure drop and a 4 cm thick activated carbon filter were selected for testing in a laboratory environment. The measurements included testing of the filters, separately and combined, in a ductwork to study the efficiency...

  18. “Professional trading”, exchange rate risk and the growth of international banking: a note

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. CALLIER

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The movement from fixed to floating exchange rates led to predictions that foreign exchange markets might become more volatile. In particular, the issue whether speculation in the market was stabilising or destabilising was widely debated. Concern was also expressed whether sufficient speculative funds would be available to ensure capital mobility. The author argues that the development of international banking has allowed banks to undertake more speculative foreign exchange trading without incurring greater risk, thus alleviating the problem of capital mobility.  

  19. Economic growth and currency crisis: A real exchange rate entropic approach

    OpenAIRE

    Matesanz Gómez, David; Guillermo J. Ortega

    2005-01-01

    We propose a country classification of economic growth currency crisis consequences based on the entropic analysis of the real exchange rate. We show that this ranking is highly correlated with the annual minimum rate of growth, a proxy used to quantify real currency crisis effects.

  20. Temporal variability of air-sea CO2 exchange in a low-emission estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mørk, Eva Thorborg; Sejr, Mikael Kristian; Stæhr, Peter Anton; Sørensen, Lise Lotte

    2016-07-01

    There is the need for further study of whether global estimates of air-sea CO2 exchange in estuarine systems capture the relevant temporal variability and, as such, the temporal variability of bulk parameterized and directly measured CO2 fluxes was investigated in the Danish estuary, Roskilde Fjord. The air-sea CO2 fluxes showed large temporal variability across seasons and between days and that more than 30% of the net CO2 emission in 2013 was a result of two large fall and winter storms. The diurnal variability of ΔpCO2 was up to 400 during summer changing the estuary from a source to a sink of CO2 within the day. Across seasons the system was suggested to change from a sink of atmospheric CO2 during spring to near neutral during summer and later to a source of atmospheric CO2 during fall. Results indicated that Roskilde Fjord was an annual low-emission estuary, with an estimated bulk parameterized release of 3.9 ± 8.7 mol CO2 m-2 y-1 during 2012-2013. It was suggested that the production-respiration balance leading to the low annual emission in Roskilde Fjord, was caused by the shallow depth, long residence time and high water quality in the estuary. In the data analysis the eddy covariance CO2 flux samples were filtered according to the H2Osbnd CO2 cross-sensitivity assessment suggested by Landwehr et al. (2014). This filtering reduced episodes of contradicting directions between measured and bulk parameterized air-sea CO2 exchanges and changed the net air-sea CO2 exchange from an uptake to a release. The CO2 gas transfer velocity was calculated from directly measured CO2 fluxes and ΔpCO2 and agreed to previous observations and parameterizations.

  1. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  2. On the link between oil price and exchange rate: A time-varying VAR parameter approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the effective exchange rate of the dollar and the oil price dynamics from 1976 to 2013. In this context, we propose to explore the economic literature dedicated to financial channels factors (exchange rate, monetary policy, and international liquidity) that could affect the oil price dynamics. In addition to oil prices and the effective exchange rate of the dollar, we use the dry cargo index as a proxy for the real economic activity and prices for precious and industrial raw materials. Using a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive estimation, our main results show that the US Dollar effective exchange rate elasticity of the crude oil prices is not constant across the time and remains negative from 1989. It then highlights that a depreciation of the effective exchange rate of the dollar leads to an increase of the crude oil prices. Our paper also demonstrates the growing influence of financial and commodities markets development upon the global economy. (authors)

  3. The Effects of Exchange Rate Market in the Economy of Kosova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Argjira Kadrijaj Dushi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From a conducted centralized economy, Kosovo‟s economy became a free market after 1999. This made the economy of Kosovo to face a lot of challenges. One of them and still a topic not studied among Kosovo economists is the Kosovo currency. Kosovo is not yet a member of EU but since 2002 is using euro currency. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using euro currency for the economy of Kosovo? This was not questionable in 2002, because Kosovo was still in the first steps of creating a financial system. But, today the importance of exchange rates in economy is crucial as a result of the internationalization of businesses, the constant increase of world trade with the national one and the rapid change of money transfer technology. In this research, through quantitative and qualitative methods is analyzed the development of exchange rate market in Kosovo and the effects of exchange rates movements in Kosovo economy, its GDP and inflation and in consumer price index. The research will point out the importance of exchange rates as an interest variable for some of Kosovo businesses and its effects in the transition economy of Kosovo which has not been exposed to exchange rates risk on macroeconomic variables.

  4. Study of influence of exchange rate change on the supply and demand of energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sohn, Y.H.; Shin, D.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-08-01

    The change of relative prices of trading goods and non-trading goods due to appreciation or depreciation of real exchange rates influences industrial structure and trading infrastructure by changing output, consumption, import and export, and prices of domestic economy. Considering that energy is used as intermediate input of all industrial sectors as well as in final consumption in the Korean economy which lacks energy resources and relies on imported energy resources, I believe that assessing the concrete effects of the real exchange rate change onto the energy industry must be a very important item in establishing effective energy policy. In this thesis, I measure the elasticity of the exchange rate as endogenous factors related to the energy industry using a CGE model that breaks down the energy industry. One (1) % depreciation of real exchange rate increases the domestic sales prices of all energy industry sectors, and the price increase ratios of petroleum and coal products are calculated as the highest among these. Petroleum and coal products show the highest price increase ratios while both the output and export decrease. On the other hand, depreciation increases the domestic sales prices of power generation, city gas, and heating sectors, but it is found to increase the output apart from petroleum and coal products. Depreciation of the real exchange rate is found to change the composition of the energy industry from petroleum and coal products to power generation, city gas, and heating sectors. 11 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

  5. The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate on Agricultural Food Prices in Emerging Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Zhou

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available With the development of economic globalization, the economic ties between countries in the world more and more closely, prices and the exchange rate are the core economic variables in an open economy. In this study, we make a statistical analysis of RMB real effective exchange rate and agricultural food prices data from the year of 1990 to 2014. From the empirical analysis, the result shows that RMB real effective exchange rate will effect on agricultural food prices. LnREER at lag 1 period increased one percentage can drive LnAFP growth by 0.015%; LnREER at lag 2 period increased one percentage can drive LnAFP growth by 0.187%, so the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate on agricultural food prices is obvious. Based on granger causality test, it shows that LnREER is the granger reason to LnAFP, which means RMB real effective exchange rate is the reason to agricultural food prices increase. On this basis, we have put forward relevant policy suggestions.

  6. The Effect of Changes in Real Exchange Rates on Employment: Evidence from Manufacturing Industries in China,1980-2002

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FAN Yanhui; SONG Wang

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effect of changes in real exchange rate on manufacturing employment.Our theoretical model predicts the positive effect of depreciation of real exchange rate on employment through a firm's expectation on changes in real exchange rate and the interaction between real exchange rate and a firm's import and domestic input.Using China's manufacturing data during the 1980-2003 period,we find that depreciation of real exchange rate promotes employment growth in manufacturing industries,while change in real exchange rate is not a significant factor in promoting wage growth.We also find that an increase in export share offsets partially the effects of real exchange rate on employment and real wages.

  7. An analysis of the impact of the exchange rate on unemployment in South Africa / Sonika van Dyk

    OpenAIRE

    Van Dyk, Sonika

    2014-01-01

    A volatile real exchange rate and high unemployment rate is a growing concern in South Africa, therefore the right macroeconomic policy is required. The challenge is to find stability in the real exchange rate paired with a low inflation rate, both of which are necessary to promote long term economic growth, which in turn creates more job opportunities. This study analyses the impact of the exchange rate on unemployment in South Africa by considering quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2013...

  8. Thermal control of a lidar laser system using a non-conventional ram air heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killough, Brian D.; Alexander, William, Jr.; Swofford, Doyle P.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the analysis and performance testing of a uniquely designed external heat exchanger. The heat exchanger is attached externally to an aircraft and is used to cool a laser system within the fuselage. Estimates showed insufficient cooling capacity with a conventional staggered tube array in the limited space available. Thus, a non-conventional design wes developed with larger tube and fin area exposed to the ram air to increase the heat transfer performance. The basic design consists of 28 circular finned aluminum tubes arranged in two parallel banks. Wind tunnel tests were performed to simulate air and liquid flight conditions for the non-conventional parallel bank arrangement and the conventional staggered tube arrangement. Performance comparisons of each of the two designs are presented. Test results are used in a computer model of the heat exchanger to predict the operating performance for the entire flight profile. These analyses predict significantly improved performance over the conventional design and show adequate thermal control margins.

  9. Exchange flux of total gaseous mercury between air and natural water surfaces in summer season

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The exchanges of mercury between surface and air are of significance in the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in the environment, but there are still few reliable data on air/surface exchange in aquatic systems. Field measurement campaigns over seawater surface at Kristineberg Marine Research Station (KMRS) and over Hovg?rds?n River surface at Knobesholm in southwestern Sweden were conducted to measure mercury flux using a dynamic flux chamber technique coupled with automatic mercury vapor-phase analyzers. Both sites show net emissions during summer time. Mercury fluxes measured over both river and seawater surfaces exhibit a consistently diurnal pattern with maximum fluxes during the daytime period and minimum fluxes during the nighttime period. At freshwater site, mercury flux is strongly correlated with the intensity of net solar radiation, and negatively correlated with relative humidity. A typical exponential relationship between mercury flux and water temperature was observed at freshwater measurement site. At seawater site, a strong correlation between mercury flux and intensity of solar radiation was obtained. The driving force of mercury emission from water surface to air is the super-saturation of dissolved gaseous mercury in aqueous phase.

  10. Linking air-sea energy exchanges and European anchovy potential spawning ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grammauta, R.; Molteni, D.; Basilone, G.; Guisande, C.; Bonanno, A.; Aronica, S.; Giacalone, G.; Fontana, I.; Zora, M.; Patti, B.; Cuttitta, A.; Buscaino, G.; Sorgente, R.; Mazzola, S.

    2008-10-01

    The physical and chemical processes of the sea greatly affect the reproductive biology of fishes, mainly influencing both the numbers of spawned eggs and the survivorship of early stages up to the recruitment period. In the central Mediterranean, the European anchovy constitutes one of the most important fishery resource. Because of its short living nature and of its recruitment variability, associated to high environmental variability, this small pelagic species undergo high interannual fluctuation in the biomass levels. Despite several efforts were addressed to characterize fishes spawning habitat from the oceanographic point of view, very few studies analyze the air-sea exchanges effects. To characterize the spawning habitat of these resources a specific technique (quotient rule analysis) was applied on air-sea heat fluxes, wind stress, sea surface temperature and turbulence data, collected in three oceanographic surveys during the summer period of 2004, 2005 and 2006. The results showed the existence of preferred values in the examined physical variables, associated to anchovy spawning areas. Namely, for heat fluxes the values were around -40 W/m2, for wind stress 0.04-0.11 N/m2, for SST 23°C, and 300 - 500 m3s-3 for wind mixing. Despite the obtained results are preliminary, this is the first relevant analysis on the air-sea exchanges and their relationship with the fish biology of pelagic species.

  11. The Influence of International Parity on the Exchange Rate: Purchasing Power Parity and International Fisher Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Mionel

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This article assesses the impact of the inflationand interest rates on the exchange rates.The analysis tests the relation between the inflation rate and the exchange rate by applying thePurchasing Power Parity Theory, while the relationbetween the interest rate and the inflation rate istested by applying the International Fisher EffectTheory. In order to test the Purchasing Power Paritythe study takes into account the period of time between 1990 – 2009, and the following countries –the USA, Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Canada, Japan and China. As for testing the InternationalFisher Effect Theory the period of time is the same, 1990 – 2009, but a few countries are different –the USA, Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Canada, Australia and New Zeeland. Thus, both theoriesanalyse the USA as home country.

  12. Relativistic collision rate calculations for electron-air interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The most recent data available on differential cross sections for electron-air interactions are used to calculate the avalanche, momentum transfer, and energy loss rates that enter into the fluid equations. Data for the important elastic, inelastic, and ionizing processes are generally available out to electron energies of 1--10 kev. Prescriptions for extending these cross sections to the relativistic regime are presented. The angular dependence of the cross sections is included where data is available as is the doubly differential cross section for ionizing collisions. The collision rates are computed by taking moments of the Boltzmann collision integrals with the assumption that the electron momentum distribution function is given by the Juettner distribution function which satisfies the relativistic H- theorem and which reduces to the familiar Maxwellian velocity distribution in the nonrelativistic regime. The distribution function is parameterized in terms of the electron density, mean momentum, and thermal energy and the rates are therefore computed on a two-dimensional grid as a function of mean kinetic energy and thermal energy

  13. EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH, IMPORT PRICES AND INFLATION UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arintoko Arintoko

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This research estimates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT into import prices by applying an extension of the basic model of ERPT on Indonesia. It estimates models of cointegration and error-correction mechanism (ECM, with and without structural breaks. It uses the techniques of Zivot-Andrews and of Gregory-Hansen to test for structural breaks and cointegration with the structural breaks, respectively. The results show that with the control variables, inflation affects import prices and lower the pass-through for short term, in a condition of free floating exchange rate. In the short term, with the inclusion of structural breaks, significant inflation affects import prices and lowers the ERPT coefficient.  Keywords:    Exchange rate pass-through, inflation, structural breaks, cointegration, error-correction mechanismJEL classification numbers: C22, C32, E31, F41

  14. Does implied volatility of currency futures option imply volatility of exchange rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Alan T.

    2007-02-01

    By investigating currency futures options, this paper provides an alternative economic implication for the result reported by Stein [Overreactions in the options market, Journal of Finance 44 (1989) 1011-1023] that long-maturity options tend to overreact to changes in the implied volatility of short-maturity options. When a GARCH process is assumed for exchange rates, a continuous-time relationship is developed. We provide evidence that implied volatilities may not be the simple average of future expected volatilities. By comparing the term-structure relationship of implied volatilities with the process of the underlying exchange rates, we find that long-maturity options are more consistent with the exchange rates process. In sum, short-maturity options overreact to the dynamics of underlying assets rather than long-maturity options overreacting to short-maturity options.

  15. Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna

    2016-01-01

    1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

  16. Self-other rating agreement and leader-member exchange (LMX): a quasi-replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbuto, John E; Wilmot, Michael P; Singh, Matthew; Story, Joana S P

    2012-04-01

    Data from a sample of 83 elected community leaders and 391 direct-report staff (resulting in 333 useable leader-member dyads) were reanalyzed to test relations between self-other rating agreement of servant leadership and member-reported leader-member exchange (LMX). Polynomial regression analysis indicated that the self-other rating agreement model was not statistically significant. Instead, all of the variance in member-reported LMX was accounted for by the others' ratings component alone.

  17. Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Consumer Confidence Index and Exchange Rate in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa İBİCİOĞLU

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the short and long term relations between exchange rate and consumer confidence index. In the study, two variables in total are discussed as consumer confidence index and dollar selling rate and a data set consisting of 95 observations in a monthly frequency spanning the 2003:12-2011:12 period is applied for each variable within the analysis. The consumer confidence index is based on the index prepared by Turkey Statistics Institution (TSI and Republic of Turkey Central Bank (RTCB. As for exchange rate the monthly average value of the Dollar selling rate is taken as basis. Examined the empirical findings obtained, it is observed that there is both a short-term and a long-term relation between consumer confidence index and exchange rate within the period investigated in Turkey. The findings can be interpreted in a way as that the exchange rate is one of the factors that shape consumers’ expectations regarding the future of the economy.

  18. Is It Possible to Replicate the Exchange Rate Volatility Behavior Using Dynamic Strategies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Henrique Barbedo

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The implied volatility is certainly an interesting indicator to help get a sense of the market, because it represents the amount of expected volatility the market is pricing. In over-the-counter exchange rate option, whose trading is volatility oriented, it is the most important variable. This work investigates whether information embedded in this implied volatility market are explained by other traded variables in the Brazilian market. The results show that there are sources of non-negotiable risk that influence this implied volatility. Therefore, exchange rate implied volatility can assist to understand the behavior of the derivatives indexed to dollar.

  19. Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Market Structure in a Multi-Country World

    OpenAIRE

    Kanda Naknoi

    2015-01-01

    In a multi-country world, currencies do not move in isolation, and competitors’ exchange rate movements may help or hurt an exporting firm. Motivated by this fact, I construct a multi-country model to examine how export prices are affected by movements in own-currency and cross-currency exchange rates. Own-currency appreciations move firms along the demand curve while cross-currency appreciations shift the position of the demand curve. Both affect the price elasticity of demand and therefore ...

  20. Essays in applied macroeconomics: Asymmetric price adjustment, exchange rate and treatment effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Jingping

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth

  1. The contribution of the ECU to exchange-rate stability. A comment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. SARCINELLI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is a brief note criticising some essential elements of Jager and De Jong’s The private ECU’s potential impact on Global and European exchange-rate stability (1988. The author provides three points of criticism which undermine that article’s analysis. Firstly, the ECU ought to be considered in all its functions of an international reserve currency and not only as an investment currency. Secondly, the restrictiveness of the assumptions underlying the portfolio approach make the authors’ outcome useless in practice. Thirdly, the outcome of their calculations favours the hypothesis that the ECU creates exchange-rate stability.

  2. On comparison of jump point detection for an exchange rate series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    IP Wai-Cheung; WONG Heung; XIE Zhongjie; LUAN Yihui

    2004-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the detection of jump points of a discontinuous function in the presence of a noise by the wavelet approach. A computing algorithm of our method is proposed and then applied to the daily exchange rate of US Dollar against Deutsche Mark. All the points detected by our method reflect very strong economic and political impacts. Other statistical methods to detect jump points have also been applied to the same exchange rate data. Our proposed method has produced more convincing empirical results than others.

  3. Canadian / U.S. Exchange Rates and Nonresident Investors: Their Influence on Residential Property Values

    OpenAIRE

    Earl Benson; Julia Hansen; Arthur Schwartz; Greg Smersh

    1999-01-01

    Factors external to a home’s characteristics may influence the sales price. This analysis focuses on Bellingham, Washington, because of several influences including the Canadian economy and nonresidents. First estimated is a constant-quality Bellingham housing price index, which is used as the dependent variable in a reduced-form model of market price to estimate the impact of the exchange rate. The analysis (1984-94) suggests that a 10% rise in the exchange rate leads to a 7.7% rise in Bel...

  4. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari; Nor Ermawati Hussain; Hafizah Abdul Rarhim

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are inf...

  5. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management: A Tilt towards Real Hedging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  6. Are exchange rates excessively volatile? And what does "excessively volatile" mean, anyway?

    OpenAIRE

    Gordon M. Bodnar; Leonardo Bartolini

    1996-01-01

    Using data for the major currencies from 1973 to 1994, we apply recent tests of asset price volatility to re-examine whether exchange rates have been excessively volatile with respect to the predictions of the monetary model of the exchange rate and of standard extensions that allow for sticky prices, sluggish money adjustment, and time-varying risk premia. Consistent with previous evidence from regression-based tests, most of the models that we examine are rejected by our volatility-based te...

  7. What type of monetary and exchange rate cooperation do China's Asian neighbors want from China?

    OpenAIRE

    Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro; Fabella, Raul V.

    2006-01-01

    It is generally taken for granted that China’s monetary and exchange rate policy have repercussions on her Asian neighbors and affect the choice set open to them in terms of setting optimal economic policy. At the very least, China’s neighbors would like to have a clearer idea of China’s plan as regards her monetary and exchange rate policy, specifically how and in what time frame she intends to adjust or exit from the current dollar peg. In a broad sense, China’s decision regarding what some...

  8. The Empirical Research of the Impact of GDP and Exchange Rate on Foreign Exchange Reserve Scale in China-Based on Quantile Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Fang-Yuan

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on the relevant data from 1985 to 2010, this thesis uses a quantile regression model to make an empirical research about the effect of GDP and exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve. The findings show that: Both GDP and exchange rate have a remarkable influence on the size of foreign exchange reserve and the effect of exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve is higher than GDP at mean place and middle and lower quantile, smaller than GDP at higher quantile. At all the examined quantiles elastic coefficients of GDP and exchange rate are positive and among them, the elastic coefficients of GDP present us a reverse "V" model with the conditional distribution altering from low to high, that is, the impact of GDP on foreign exchange reserve shows an increasing trend when the latter is smaller, but begins to decrease when the latter reaches to a certain level; the elastic coefficients of exchange rate at lower quantiles are bigger than that of higher quantiles.

  9. pH and urea dependence of amide hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates in the beta-trefoil protein hisactophilin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houliston, R Scott; Liu, Chengsong; Singh, Laila M R; Meiering, Elizabeth M

    2002-01-29

    Amide hydrogen/deuterium exchange rates were measured as a function of pH and urea for 37 slowly exchanging amides in the beta-trefoil protein hisactophilin. The rank order of exchange rates is generally maintained under different solution conditions, and trends in the pH and urea dependence of exchange rates are correlated with the rank order of exchange rates. The observed trends are consistent with the expected behavior for exchange of different amides via global and/or local unfolding. Analysis of the pH dependence of exchange in terms of rate constants for structural opening and closing reveals a wide range of rates in different parts of the hisactophilin structure. The slowest exchanging amides have the slowest opening and closing rates. Many of the slowest exchanging amides are located in trefoil 2, but there are also some slow exchanging amides in trefoils 1 and 3. Slow exchangers tend to be near the interface between the beta-barrel and the beta-hairpin triplet portions of this single-domain structure. The pattern of exchange behaviour in hisactophilin is similar to that observed previously in interleukin-1 beta, indicating that exchange properties may be conserved among beta-trefoil proteins. Comparisons of opening and closing rates in hisactophilin with rates obtained for other proteins reveal clear trends for opening rates; however, trends in closing rates are less apparent, perhaps due to inaccuracies in the values used for intrinsic exchange rates in the data fitting. On the basis of the pH and urea dependence of exchange rates and optical measurements of stability and folding, EX2 is the main exchange mechanism in hisactophilin, but there is also evidence for varying levels of EX1 exchange at low and high pH and high urea concentrations. Equilibrium intermediates in which subglobal portions of structure are cooperatively disrupted are not apparent from analysis of the urea dependence of exchange rates. There is, however, a strong correlation between

  10. Adaptive inverse control of air supply flow for proton exchange membrane fuel cell systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Chun-hua; ZHU Xin-jian; SUI Sheng; HU Wan-qi; HU Ming-ruo

    2009-01-01

    To prevent the oxygen starvation and improve the system output performance, an adaptive inverse control (AIC) strategy is developed to regulate the air supply flow of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) system in this paper.The PEMFC stack and the air supply system including a compressor and a supply manifold are modeled for the purpose of performance analysis and controller design. A recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) is utilized to identify the inverse model of the controlled system and generates a suitable control input during the abrupt step change of external disturbances.Compared with the PI controller, numerical simulations are performed to validate the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed AIC strategy.

  11. Economic fluctuations in a small economy with two productive sectors under a floating exchange rate regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Ustorgio Mora Mora

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a theoretical model of aggregate supply and demand in a small economy with two productive sectors, under a flexible exchange regime and imperfect capital mobility. Only one of the production sectors is assumed to produce an exportable commodity sold at world market prices, while the production of the other sector is assumed to supply the domestic market. This model helps to explain how the impact of both domestic (economic policy, productivity, etc. and foreign (changes in exchange terms shocks is spread. In every case studied, results show that real output increases consistently with those cases postulated by economic theory. Conversely, the effects on the price level, the exchange rate and the real interest rate are ambiguous. In terms of domestic shocks, fiscal or monetary policy may be seen as a way to stabilize or stimulate the economy but the costs involved raise the price level.

  12. Atmospheric organochlorine pollutants and air-sea exchange of hexachlorocyclohexane in the Bering and Chukchi seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinckley, Daniel A.; Bidleman, Terry F.; Rice, Clifford P.

    1991-04-01

    Organochlorine pesticides have been found in Arctic fish, marine mammals, birds, and plankton for some time. The lack of local sources and remoteness of the region imply long-range transport and deposition of contaminants into the Arctic from sources to the south. While on the third Soviet-American Joint Ecological Expedition to the Bering and Chukchi Seas (August 1988), high-volume air samples were taken and analyzed for Organochlorine pesticides. Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), hexachlorobenzene, polychlorinated camphenes, and chlordane (listed in order of abundance, highest to lowest) were quantified. The air-sea gas exchange of HCH was estimated at 18 stations during the cruise. Average α-HCH concentrations in concurrent atmosphere and surface water samples were 250 pg m-3 and 2.4 ng L-1, respectively, and average γ-HCH concentrations were 68 pg m-3 in the atmosphere and 0.6 ng L-1 in surface water. Calculations based on experimentally derived Henry's law constants showed that the surface water was undersaturated with respect to the atmosphere at most stations (α-HCH, average 79% saturation; γ-HCH, average 28% saturation). The flux for α-HCH ranged from -47 ng m-2 day-1 (sea to air) to 122 ng m-2 d-1 (air to sea) and averaged 25 ng m-2 d-1 air to sea. All fluxes of γ-HCH were from air to sea, ranged from 17 to 54 ng m-2 d-1, and averaged 31 ng m-2 d-1.

  13. EXCHANGE RATE VS. INTEREST RATE: HOW MUCH DOES UIP WORK FOR ROMANIA? (STUDY CASE ON THE EUR/RON CURRENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haulica Dana

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper is part of a larger research that aims to analyze the deviation between the Real Exchange Rate and the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Romania (EUR/RON currency and to come up with conclusions regarding this deviation and with solutions to minimize it, if the case. Because this is the most important discussion after having the empirical results: what do emergent markets like Romania need to do to keep up with the EU trend? Which are the concessions they have to make in order to maintain a sustainable growth? Do these concessions include breaking the present equilibrium for a future BETTER? Starting with the most well-known methods to calculate the Equilibrium Exchange Rate, this article`s purpose is to create an accurate overview on the UIP model in Romania (the interest rate differential, to verify, using the latest data if the economic environment has brought any changes on the results of this model in the latest years. Is the UIP model a trustworthy equation to establish the Equilibrium Exchange Rate? In order to verify if the UIP model was more reliable in returning a value for the Equilibrium Exchange rate in the latest years on the Romanian market, this paper presents an empirical study containing recent compiled data from the last 10 years, analyzing the 2005 – 2014 period. The NEW in this article is that the used data is very fresh, currently, most probably the only study that verifies the UIP model in Romania for this specific period of time. Why is it useful? Why is it important? Because it doesn`t only bring a confirmation of weather the UIP works for Romania or not but comes up with hints and conclusions regarding the current economic situation of Romania. We can see what has been changed in the local market in the last ten years in terms of monetary policy and what has this change brought with it – if the results are those expected or not and also, what would be the direction for the next years – to most suitable

  14. Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates with asymmetry in the Taiwan tourism industry. The analysis is based on two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH, in the volatility specification. Daily data fro

  15. Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates with asymmetry in the Taiwan tourism industry. The analysis is based on two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH, in the volatility specification. Daily data fro

  16. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: An Empirical Study into the Strategies of Industrial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    that major reasons behind this focus are the dynamic development of the competitive environment and the ability of the specific company to counter unfavorable changes in exchange rates by the exercise of real options (e.g. reallocation of production resources). As such, the study shows the in adequacy...

  17. A Simple Model and Its Application in the Valuation of Eleven Main Real Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Zhibai(New York City College of Technology, The City University of New York, Brooklyn, NY, 11201, U.S.A.)

    2012-01-01

    A simple currency valuation model is given. The model is based on the Penn effect but reduces the uncertainty of the econometric specification that the Penn effect and many other models have. We use the model to valuate eleven main currencies’ bilateral real exchange rate against the US dollar from 1980 to 2010. In the model finding, a seeming convergence phenomenon is found.

  18. The Effect of Exchange Rate Variability on U.S. Shareholder Wealth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müller, Aline; Verschoor, W.F.C.

    2009-01-01

    We examine the relationship between financial crisis exchange rate variability and equity return volatility for US multinationals. Empirical analysis of the major financial crises of the last decades reveals that stock return variability increases significantly in the aftermath of a crisis, even rel

  19. What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson; Frömmel, Michael; Menkhoff, Lukas;

    This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against co...

  20. A Classroom Experiment on Exchange Rate Determination with Purchasing Power Parity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, David T.; Rebelein, Robert P.; Schneider, Patricia H.; Simpson, Nicole B.; Fisher, Eric

    2009-01-01

    The authors developed a classroom experiment on exchange rate determination appropriate for undergraduate courses in macroeconomics and international economics. In the experiment, students represent citizens from different countries and need to obtain currency to purchase goods. By participating in an auction to buy currency, students gain a…

  1. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY AND EXCHANGE RATE: A STUDY OF KSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ASLAM Waseem

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper guides us about the impact of Exchange rate Pakistan rupee in terms of US Dollar and KSE 100 index. We take the data of period comprises from January 01, 2006 to December 31, 2012 excluding year 2013due to general elections of Pakistan, which held in May 2013 after which stock market took a boom. We applied different statistical tools to analyze the obtained data. We also analyze the causal relationship between both the time series. First of all we carry out normality test and found that both PKR-USD exchange rate and KSE 100 index are non-normally distributed. We conclude through unit root test that both series are stationary at the level form. Furthermore we found negative correlation in between KSE100 indices and USD-PKR exchange rate though very weak relationship exists. Furthermore we check for causal relationship between two time series through Granger Causal Test and found that bidirectional relationship exists between KSE 100 indices and Exchange Rate.

  2. Pricing model of credit default swap with stochastic foreign exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Yang

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A pricing model is established by using the structure approach and the backward Kolmogrov equation under the assumption of stochastic foreign exchange rate.The explicit solution of credit default swap is obtained for the dollar market.And a correlative financial analysis is given.

  3. Exchange rate of the US dollar and the J curve: the case of oil exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study examines the effects of changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar on the trade balances of three oil-exporting countries, namely Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. An exchange rate pass-through model is applied to allow changes in the exchange rate of the dollar to affect prices of traded goods. Then, the impact of changes in prices on the quantities of imports and exports of these economies is estimated. The results suggest a partial exchange rate pass-through to these countries' import and export prices in terms of the US dollar. While the three countries raise the price of their primary export (namely crude oil) in response to a depreciation of the dollar, Saudi Arabia's long-run pricing strategy in securing a larger market share stands in contrast to that of the two other OPEC members. The sum of the estimated long-run price elasticities of demand for imports and exports is found to exceed unity for Iran and Venezuela, but less than unity for Saudi Arabia. (author)

  4. Exchange rate of the US dollar and the J curve. The case of oil exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study examines the effects of changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar on the trade balances of three oil-exporting countries, namely Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. An exchange rate pass-through model is applied to allow changes in the exchange rate of the dollar to affect prices of traded goods. Then, the impact of changes in prices on the quantities of imports and exports of these economies is estimated. The results suggest a partial exchange rate pass-through to these countries' import and export prices in terms of the US dollar. While the three countries raise the price of their primary export (namely crude oil) in response to a depreciation of the dollar, Saudi Arabia's long-run pricing strategy in securing a larger market share stands in contrast to that of the two other OPEC members. The sum of the estimated long-run price elasticities of demand for imports and exports is found to exceed unity for Iran and Venezuela, but less than unity for Saudi Arabia

  5. Effects of Exchange Rate Instability on Imports and Exports of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atif Kafayat

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The instability in exchange rate (appreciation and depreciation in home currency is an important factor indetermination of trade balance of a country. Fluctuating exchange rates impacts the decision making of investors and traders, it shatters their confidence which ultimately leads to the slowness of trade process. In this research paper the effect of exchange rate instability is measured on imports and exports of Pakistan. For this purpose Regression analysis is used and it is calculated that if instability is created due to depreciation in home currency (Pak rupee then it has positive impact on Pakistan‘s exports, while it has absolutely no effect on imports of Pakistan. Since Pak rupee has very limited appreciation during last 20 years so appreciation effect of home currency can not be calculated on Imports and exports of Pakistan. In theoretical prospective the devaluation of home currency should decrease the volume of imports, because it will cost more for Pakistan to import goods from other countries. But our empirical findings show that, this is not the case between exchange rate and imports of Pakistan. The imports of Pakistan grew even in large figure as the home currency depreciated against other currencies. So this shows that depreciation of home currency do not effect the imports in of Pakistan. Our findings through regression analysis show that by decrease in value of home currency imports of Pakistan increase. So depreciation in home currency has no effect on imports volume.

  6. The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship of Exchange Rates: Parametric and Nonparametric Causality testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.D. Bekiros; C. Diks

    2007-01-01

    The present study investigates the long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among six currencies, namely EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD. The prime motivation for choosing these exchange rates comes from the fact that they are the most liquid and widely traded, covering

  7. The Impact of Exchange Rate on Poland’s Trade Flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Twarowska

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of exchange rate on Poland’s foreign trade, especially on bilateral trade flows between Poland and the Euro area, which is its major trading partner. The research verifies the theoretical concepts that explain how the exchange rate influences the trade turnover. The empirical analysis was preceded by a theoretical basis of the problem. Data used in this study covers the period from 2004 to 2013. The theoretical and empirical analysis confirm that the exchange rate is a substantial factor influencing bilateral trade turnover between Poland and its main trading partners. The Polish zloty depreciation is the cause for the Polish exports growth. In the case of imports, the depreciation of the Polish zloty causes a decrease of the value of the Polish imports. Moreover, the exchange rate is an important adjustment mechanism, thanks to which the Polish economy was able to avoid a large decline in exports and GDP during the recent financial and economic crisis.

  8. Numerical Analysis of Flow Distribution in a Sodium Chamber of a Finned-tube Sodium-to-Air Heat Exchanger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo, Youngchul; Son, Seokkwon; Kim, Hyungmo; Eoh, Jaehyuk; Jeong, Jiyoung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    DHR systems consist of two diverse heat removal loops such as passive and active DHR systems, and the heat load imposed on the primary sodium pool is safely rejected into the environment through different kinds of sodium-to-air heat exchangers, e.g. M-shape and helical-coil type air-coolers. The former is called as an FHX(Forced-draft sodium-to-air Heat Exchanger) and the latter is simply called as an AHX(natural-draft sodium-to-Air Heat Exchanger). In a general sodium-to-air heat exchanger design, convection resistance in a shell-side air flow path becomes dominant factor affecting the mechanism of conjugate heat transfer from the sodium flow inside the tube to the air path across the sodium tube wall. Hence verification of the flow and heat transfer characteristics is one of the most important tasks to demonstrate decay heat removal performance. To confirm a kind of ultimate heat sink heat exchanger, a medium-scale Sodium thermal-hydraulic Experiment Loop for Finned-tube sodium-to-Air Heat exchanger (here after called the SELFA) has been designed and is recently being constructed at KAERI site. The introduction of the flow baffle inside the upper sodium chamber of the model FHX unit in the SELFA facility is briefly proposed and discussed as well. The present study aims at introducing a flow baffle design inside the upper sodium chamber to make more equalized flowrates flowing into each heat transfer tube of the model FHX unit. In the cases without the flow baffle geometry, it was observed lager discrepancies in flowrates at the heat transfer tubes. However it was also found that those kinds of discrepancies could be definitely decreased at around 1/10 by employing a flow baffle.

  9. Distribution and air-sea exchange of mercury (Hg in the Yellow Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. J. Ci

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The Yellow Sea, surrounded by East China and the Korea Peninsula, is a potentially important receptor for anthropogenic mercury (Hg emissions from East Asia. However, there is little documentation about the distribution and cycle of Hg in this marine system. During the cruise covering the Yellow Sea in July 2010, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM or Hg(0 in the atmosphere, total Hg (THg, reactive Hg (RHg and dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM, largely Hg(0 in the waters were measured aboard the R/V Kexue III. The mean (±SD concentration of GEM over the entire cruise was 2.61 ± 0.50 ng m−3 (range: 1.68 to 4.34 ng m−3, which were generally higher than other open oceans. The spatial distribution of GEM generally reflected a clear gradient with high levels near the coast of East China and low levels in open waters, suggesting the significant atmospheric Hg outflow from East China. The mean concentration of THg in the surface waters was 1.69 ± 0.35 ng l−1 and the RHg accounted for a considerable fraction of THg (RHg: 1.08 ± 0.28 ng l−1, %RHg/THg = 63.9%. The mean concentration of DGM in the surface waters was 63.9 ± 13.7 pg l−1 and always suggested the supersaturation of Hg(0 in the surface waters with respect to Hg(0 in the atmosphere (the degree of saturation: 7.8 ± 2.3 with a range of 3.6–14.0. The mean Hg(0 flux at the air-sea interface was estimated to be 18.3 ± 11.8 ng m−2 h−1 based on a two-layer exchange model. The high wind speed and DGM levels induced the extremely high Hg(0 emission rates. Measurements at three stations showed no clear vertical patterns of DGM, RHg and THg in the water column. Overall, the elevated Hg levels in the Yellow Sea compared with other open oceans suggested that the human activity has influenced the oceanic Hg cycle downwind of East Asia.

  10. Distribution and air-sea exchange of mercury (Hg in the Yellow Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. J. Ci

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The Yellow Sea, surrounded by East China and the Korea Peninsula, is a potentially important receptor for anthropogenic mercury (Hg emissions from East Asia. However, there is little documentation about the distribution and cycle of Hg in this marine system. During the cruise covering the Yellow Sea in July 2010, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM or Hg(0 in the atmosphere, total Hg (THg, reactive Hg (RHg and dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM, largely Hg(0 in the waters were measured aboard the R/V Kexue III. The mean (±SD concentration of GEM over the entire cruise was 2.61±0.50 ng m−3 (range: 1.68 to 4.34 ng m−3, which were generally higher than other open oceans. The spatial distribution of GEM generally reflected a clear gradient with high levels near the coast of East China and low levels in open waters, suggesting the significant atmospheric Hg outflow from East China. The mean concentration of THg in the surface waters was 1.69±0.35 ng l−1 and the RHg accounted for a considerable fraction of THg (RHg: 1.08±0.28 ng l−1, %RHg/THg=63.9%. The mean concentration of DGM in the surface waters was 63.9±13.7 pg l−1 and always suggested the supersaturation of Hg(0 in the surface waters with respect to Hg(0 in the atmosphere (the degree of saturation: 7.83±2.29 with a range of 3.58–14.00. The mean Hg(0 flux at the air-sea interface was estimated to be 22.58±14.56 ng m−2 h−1 based on a two-layer exchange model. The high wind speed and DGM levels induced the extremely high Hg(0 emission rates. Measurements at three selected stations showed no clear vertical patterns of all three species of Hg in the water column. Overall, the elevated Hg levels in the Yellow Sea compared with other open oceans suggested that the human activity has significantly influenced the oceanic Hg cycle downwind of East Asia.

  11. New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    KALYVITIS, Sarantis; Michaelides, Alexander

    2001-01-01

    We examine the impact of US monetary policy shocks on exchange rates using the monetary policy indicator proposed by Bernanke and Mihov [Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113 (1998) 869–902]. We find evidence for instantaneous, rather than delayed, US dollar overshooting after a monetary shock when relative output and relative prices are included in the VAR specification. The forward premium puzzle persists due to the interest rate differential response.

  12. Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data

    OpenAIRE

    Jon Faust; Rogers, John H.; Eric Swanson; Wright, Jonathan H.

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of eurodollar contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on financial variables, such as the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate. We show how this information can be used to achieve identification without having to make the usual strong assumption of a r...

  13. Devaluation Risk and the Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations

    OpenAIRE

    Mendoza, Enrique G.; Martin Uribe

    1999-01-01

    This paper shows that the risk of devaluation can be an important factor accounting for the stylized facts of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. This conclusion follows from studying the quantitative implications of a two-sector equilibrium business cycle model of a small open economy calibrated to Mexico's 1987-1994 stabilization plan. In the model a time-variant interest rate differential that acts as a stochastic tax on money demand, labor supply, investment, and saving. Under incomplete ...

  14. France’s experience with monetary and exchange rate management: March 1973 to end-1981

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. ARGY

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The work encompasses a detailed review of the French experience with regards to monetary and exchange rate management. Monetary and credit targeting is dealt with and the instruments used to achieve proximate policy objectives are reviewed. Economic activity and inflation are then assessed before a simple econometric analysis of the Franc-Dollar rate is performed. Finally, France’s experience with policy mixes and internal-external balance is explored. 

  15. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: New Evidence from the Narrative Approach to Shock Identification

    OpenAIRE

    Bluedorn, John C.; Christopher Bowdler

    2005-01-01

    We argue that endogenous and anticipated movements in interest rates lead to underestimates of the speed and magnitude of the exchange rate response to monetary policy. Employing the Romer and Romer (2004) exogenous monetary policy shock measure, we find that the effect of a one percentage point increase in the U.S. interest rate is up to 3 times as large and 3 times as fast as that obtained using the actual federal funds rate to identify monetary shocks. Moreover, new evidence from open econ...

  16. Investigating the Existence of Chaos in Inflation Data in relation to Chaotic Foreign Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Pritha Das; Atin Das

    2014-01-01

    Foreign exchange (ForEx) rates are amongst the most important economic indices in the international monetary markets. ForEx rate represents the value of one currency in another and it fluctuates over time. It is related to indicators like inflation, interest rate, gross domestic product, and so forth. In a series of works, we investigated and confirmed the chaotic property of ForEx rates by finding positive largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). As inflation influences ForEx, in this work we would ...

  17. EFFECTS OF THE APPLICATION OF TARGETING THE EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN MACEDONIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KRUME NIKOLOSKI

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The monetary system and monetary – credit policy in the Republic of Macedonia were built after the country gained independence from the previous federal community, when Macedonia faced problems such as: termination of many plants, increase in unemployment, increase in budget and foreign trade deficit as well as high inflation rate. The macroeconomic stability narrowly understood as reducing the inflation rate, was the first measure of the economic policy, undertaken along with the monetary independence of Macedonia. In a small and open economy, the exchange rate policy has particular importance in the control of the inflation rate and beyond: in the real economic trends. The strategy of targeting the denar exchange rate was accepted and applied with the expectation that it would act in that direction, hence the monetary policy was focused on maintaining fixed exchange rate against the euro. The determination of the country to join the European Union and to become a member of other international financial organizations is yet another reason for choosing this strategy.

  18. The Sectoral Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations – A Case Study of Colombia: OIES paper: SP 31

    OpenAIRE

    Mahadeva, Lavan

    2013-01-01

    Nearly all countries whose exports are highly concentrated in fuel products fix their nominal exchange rate in order to protect the livelihoods of vulnerable workers in other sectors from exchange rate changes that could be caused by variations in international fuel prices. In this paper, we assess the impact that fuel price-induced exchange rate variability has on the different sectors of fuel-exporting countries, taking Colombia as a case-study. We document the rich variety of sectoral resp...

  19. Macro Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in a Small Open Small Island Economy: Evidence from Mauritius via BMA

    OpenAIRE

    Njindan Iyke, Bernard

    2015-01-01

    We assess the robust macro determinants of the real exchange rate in Mauritius under model uncertainty by utilizing Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We introduce a broader range of potential macro determinants of the real exchange rate in Mauritius. Then we tackle the issue of model uncertainty when identifying these macro determinants of the real exchange rate by exploring the impact of different priors on the model size, and different priors on model coefficients on the posterior estimates. ...

  20. Trade Adjustments to Exchange Rate Changes by Japanese Manufacturing MNEs: Intra-firm and arm's length transactions

    OpenAIRE

    Ando, Mitsuyo; Fukunari KIMURA

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines how Japanese manufacturing multinational enterprises (MNEs) adjust to exchange rate changes. Using the micro-data of Japanese manufacturing MNEs from 1994 to 2010, we find that exports tend to respond to exchange rate changes, in particular when wholly or majority-owned affiliates are dominant among their foreign affiliates and when intra-firm trade ratios are higher. Moreover, the responsiveness to exchange rate changes is higher for intra-firm exports than for total expo...

  1. Kinetic bottlenecks to chemical exchange rates for deep-sea animals II: Carbon dioxide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Hofmann

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Increased ocean acidification from fossil fuel CO2 invasion, from temperature-driven changes in respiration, and from possible leakage from sub-seabed geologic CO2 disposal has aroused concern over the impacts of elevated CO2 concentrations on marine life. Discussion of these impacts has so far focused only on changes in the oceanic bulk fluid properties (ΔpH, Δ[∑CO2] etc. as the critical variable and with a major focus on carbonate shell dissolution. Here we describe the rate problem for animals that must export CO2 at about the same rate at which O2 is consumed. We analyze the basic properties controlling CO2 export within the diffusive boundary layer around marine animals in an ocean changing in temperature (T and CO2 concentration in order to compare the challenges posed by O2 uptake under stress with the equivalent problem of CO2 expulsion. The problem is more complex than that for a non-reactive gas since, as with gas exchange of CO2 at the air-sea interface, the influence of the ensemble of reactions within the CO2-HCO3-CO32– acid-base system needs to be considered. These reactions significantly facilitate CO2 efflux compared to O2 intake at equal temperature, pressure and flow rate under typical oceanic concentrations.The effect of these reactions can be described by an enhancement factor. For organisms, this means mechanically increasing flow over their surface to thin the boundary layer as is required to alleviate O2 stress seems not necessary to facilitate CO2 efflux. Nevertheless the elevated pCO2 cost most likely is non-zero. Regionally as with O2 the combination of T, P, and pH/pCO2 creates a zone of maximum CO2 stress at around

  2. A macro-physics model of depreciation rate in economic exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmont Lobo, Rui F.; de Sousa, Miguel Rocha

    2014-02-01

    This article aims at a new approach for a known fundamental result: barter or trade increases economic value. It successfully bridges the gap between the theory of value and the exchange process attached to the transition from endowments to the equilibrium in the core and contract curve. First, we summarise the theory of value; in Section 2, we present the Edgeworth (1881) box and an axiomatic approach and in Section 3, we apply our pure exchange model. Finally (in Section 4), using our open econo-physics pure barter (EPB) model, we derive an improvement in value, which means that pure barter leads to a decline in depreciation rate.

  3. International Space Station Common Cabin Air Assembly Condensing Heat Exchanger Hydrophilic Coating Failures and Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balistreri, Steven F.; Shaw, Laura A.; Laliberte, Yvon

    2010-01-01

    The ability to control the temperature and humidity of an environment or habitat is critical for human survival. These factors are important to maintaining human health and comfort, as well as maintaining mechanical and electrical equipment in good working order to support the human and to accomplish mission objectives. The temperature and humidity of the International Space Station (ISS) United States On-orbit Segment (USOS) cabin air is controlled by the Common Cabin Air Assembly (CCAA). The CCAA consists of a fan, a condensing heat exchanger (CHX), an air/water separator, temperature and liquid sensors, and electrical controlling hardware and software. The CHX is the primary component responsible for control of temperature and humidity. The CCAA CHX contains a chemical coating that was developed to be hydrophilic and thus attract water from the humid influent air. This attraction forms the basis for water removal and therefore cabin humidity control. However, there have been several instances of CHX coatings becoming hydrophobic and repelling water. When this behavior is observed in an operational CHX, the unit s ability to remove moisture from the air is compromised and the result is liquid water carryover into downstream ducting and systems. This water carryover can have detrimental effects on the cabin atmosphere quality and on the health of downstream hardware. If the water carryover is severe and widespread, this behavior can result in an inability to maintain humidity levels in the USOS. This paper will describe the operation of the five CCAAs within in the USOS, the potential causes of the hydrophobic condition, and the impacts of the resulting water carryover to downstream systems. It will describe the history of this behavior and the actual observed impacts to the ISS USOS. Information on mitigation steps to protect the health of future CHX hydrophilic coatings and potential remediation techniques will also be discussed.

  4. The response of Japanese and U.S. steel prices to changes in the yen - dollar exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Varangis, Panos; Duncan, Ronald C.

    1990-01-01

    Import prices in the U.S. have not responded as expected to large fluctuations in the exchange rate. This paper analyzes the response of Japanese and U.S. steel prices to changes in the yen-dollar exchange rate (the exchange rate pass-through, or percentage change in import prices as a result of changes in the exchange rate or the exporter's cost of production). It concludes that: (a) the magnitude of elasticity of the pass-through depends on the elasticity of import demand, the convexity of ...

  5. Effect of geometric factors on performance of a sodium to air heat exchanger in a fast breeder reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • A heat exchanger analysis (HE) before scale up reduces excess heat transfer area. • Representative Elementary Volume analysis of a HE speeds up the solution. • The error in air temperature rise prediction by numerical across HE is within 5%. • When both pitches are reduced, the maximum increase in heat flux is experienced. • The experience has resulted in better design of next level heat exchangers. - Abstract: Prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) has a safety grade decay heat removal system whose performance depends on the effective functioning of natural convection heat exchangers called sodium to air heat exchangers. The development of Representative Elementary Volume (REV) model for the sodium to air heat exchanger is necessary to envisage its design and to study the effect of various factors for continuous improvement in design. With a Representative Elementary Volume, the hydrodynamic and heat transfer characteristics of the heat exchanger was studied and the results agree well with experimental data. The effect of longitudinal pitch and transverse pitch on the heat exchanger performance has been studied and an improvement of 22% in heat transfer is predicted

  6. Comparison of deliverable and exhaustible pressurized air flow rates in laboratory gloveboxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calculations were performed to estimate the maximum credible flow rates of pressurized air into Plutonium Process Support Laboratories gloveboxes. Classical equations for compressible fluids were used to estimate the flow rates. The calculated maxima were compared to another's estimates of glovebox exhaust flow rates and corresponding glovebox internal pressures. No credible pressurized air flow rate will pressurize a glovebox beyond normal operating limits. Unrestricted use of the pressurized air supply is recommended

  7. Analysis of transient and hysteresis behavior of cross-flow heat exchangers under variable fluid mass flow rate for data center cooling applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Effective thermal management of data centers is an important aspect of reducing the energy required for the reliable operation of data processing and communications equipment. Liquid and hybrid (air/liquid) cooling approaches are becoming more widely used in today's large and complex data center facilities. Examples of these approaches include rear door heat exchangers, in-row and overhead coolers and direct liquid cooled servers. Heat exchangers are primary components of liquid and hybrid cooling systems, and the effectiveness of a heat exchanger strongly influences the thermal performance of a cooling system. Characterizing and modeling the dynamic behavior of heat exchangers is important for the design of cooling systems, especially for control strategies to improve energy efficiency. In this study, a dynamic thermal model is solved numerically in order to predict the transient response of an unmixed–unmixed crossflow heat exchanger, of the type that is widely used in data center cooling equipment. The transient response to step and ramp changes in the mass flow rate of both the hot and cold fluid is investigated. Five model parameters are varied over specific ranges to characterize the transient performance. The parameter range investigated is based on available heat exchanger data. The thermal response to the magnitude, time period and initial and final conditions of the transient input functions is studied in detail. Also, the hysteresis associated with the fluid mass flow rate variation is investigated. The modeling results and performance data are used to analyze specific dynamic performance of heat exchangers used in practical data center cooling applications. - Highlights: • The transient performance of a crossflow heat exchanger was modeled and studied. • This study provides design information for data center thermal management. • The time constant metric was used to study the impacts of many variable inputs. • The hysteresis behavior

  8. The common-trend and transitory dynamics in real exchange rate fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergman, Ulf Michael; Cheung, Yin-Wong; Lai, Kon S.

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the behaviour of both Common Trend (CT) and transitory components of Real Exchange Rate (RER) fluctuations under the current float. The CT component is in most cases found to be sizeable, albeit its relative importance can vary considerably across major currencies and its...... estimate can be sensitive to whether or not long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is imposed on the data. Further analysis suggests that both CT and transitory innovations are linked much more to interest rate changes than to productivity changes. Accordingly, it is interest rate, not productivity...

  9. Causal Nexus between Stock Price, Demand for Money, Interest Rate, Foreign Institutional Investment, and Exchange Rates in India: A Post Subprime Crisis Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iti Vyas

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes an attempt to empirically examine the causal nexus between stock price, demand for money, interest rates, foreign institutional investment and exchange rates in India in the post subprime mortgage crisis period. The study employed Granger causality test, Vector Auto Regression and Johansen Maximum Likelihood procedure to examine the short run and long run dynamic interaction among the above mentioned variables for the period January 1993 to May 2009. The major indings of the study are: stock return affects exchange rate return, net foreign institutional investment and growth of demand for money. Growth of demand for money, in turn, affects interest rate. Interest rate is more affected by exchange rate return. Foreign institutional investment also affects interest rate. The co-integration test conirms that there does not exist any long run equilibrium relationship between stock return and exchange rate return.

  10. Guanine and 7-methylguanine amino proton exchange rates as a function of buffer pK: implications for the exchange mechanism.

    OpenAIRE

    Hartmann, B.; Lavery, R.; Ramstein, J

    1986-01-01

    Using the stopped-flow kinetic method we have measured the deuteration rate of the amino protons in 2'deoxyguanosine 5'monophosphate and 7-methylguanosine 5'monophosphate. For both compounds the exchange rates are accelerated with increasing concentration of a large number of buffers with widely differing pKs. The results obtained, in conjunction with a theoretical model study, give rise to serious doubts concerning the normally accepted mechanism of amino proton exchange involving a pre-prot...

  11. The Arctic Ocean marine carbon cycle: evaluation of air-sea CO2 exchanges, ocean acidification impacts and potential feedbacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. T. Mathis

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available At present, although seasonal sea-ice cover mitigates atmosphere-ocean gas exchange, the Arctic Ocean takes up carbon dioxide (CO2 on the order of −65 to −175 Tg C year−1, contributing 5–14% to the global balance of CO2 sinks and sources. Because of this, the Arctic Ocean is an important influence on the global carbon cycle, with the marine carbon cycle and atmosphere-ocean CO2 exchanges sensitive to Arctic Ocean and global climate change feedbacks. In the near-term, further sea-ice loss and increases in phytoplankton growth rates are expected to increase the uptake of CO2 by Arctic surface waters, although mitigated somewhat by surface warming in the Arctic. Thus, the capacity of the Arctic Ocean to uptake CO2 is expected to alter in response to environmental changes driven largely by climate. These changes are likely to continue to modify the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecology of the Arctic Ocean in ways that are not yet fully understood. In surface waters, sea-ice melt, river runoff, cooling and uptake of CO2 through air-sea gas exchange combine to decrease the calcium carbonate (CaCO3 mineral saturation states (Ω of seawater that is counteracted by seasonal phytoplankton primary production (PP. Biological processes drive divergent trajectories for Ω in surface and subsurface waters of Arctic shelves with subsurface water experiencing undersaturation with respect to aragonite and calcite. Thus, in response to increased sea-ice loss, warming and enhanced phytoplankton PP, the benthic ecosystem of the Arctic shelves are expected to be negatively impacted by the biological amplification of ocean acidification. This in turn reduces the ability of many species to produce CaCO3 shells or tests with profound implications for Arctic marine ecosystems.

  12. The Arctic Ocean marine carbon cycle: evaluation of air-sea CO2 exchanges, ocean acidification impacts and potential feedbacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. R. Bates

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available At present, although seasonal sea-ice cover mitigates atmosphere-ocean gas exchange, the Arctic Ocean takes up carbon dioxide (CO2 on the order of −66 to −199 Tg C year−1 (1012 g C, contributing 5–14% to the global balance of CO2 sinks and sources. Because of this, the Arctic Ocean has an important influence on the global carbon cycle, with the marine carbon cycle and atmosphere-ocean CO2 exchanges sensitive to Arctic Ocean and global climate change feedbacks. In the near-term, further sea-ice loss and increases in phytoplankton growth rates are expected to increase the uptake of CO2 by Arctic Ocean surface waters, although mitigated somewhat by surface warming in the Arctic. Thus, the capacity of the Arctic Ocean to uptake CO2 is expected to alter in response to environmental changes driven largely by climate. These changes are likely to continue to modify the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecology of the Arctic Ocean in ways that are not yet fully understood. In surface waters, sea-ice melt, river runoff, cooling and uptake of CO2 through air-sea gas exchange combine to decrease the calcium carbonate (CaCO3 mineral saturation states (Ω of seawater while seasonal phytoplankton primary production (PP mitigates this effect. Biological amplification of ocean acidification effects in subsurface waters, due to the remineralization of organic matter, is likely to reduce the ability of many species to produce CaCO3 shells or tests with profound implications for Arctic marine ecosystems

  13. Integrated Strategic Planning of Global Production Networks and Financial Hedging under Uncertain Demands and Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achim Koberstein

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a multi-stage stochastic programming model that integrates financial hedging decisions into the planning of strategic production networks under uncertain exchange rates and product demands. This model considers the expenses of production plants and the revenues of markets in different currency areas. Financial portfolio planning decisions for two types of financial instruments, forward contracts and options, are represented explicitly by multi-period decision variables and a multi-stage scenario tree. Using an illustrative example, we analyze the impact of exchange-rate and demand volatility, the level of investment expenses and interest rate spreads on capacity location and dimensioning decisions. In particular, we show that, in the illustrative example, the exchange-rate uncertainty cannot be completely eliminated by financial hedging in the presence of demand uncertainty. In this situation, we find that the integrated model can result in better strategic planning decisions for a risk-averse decision maker compared to traditional modeling approaches.

  14. Heat exchange at air-sea interface in the South China Sea during monsoon periods in 1986

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Disheng; LU Boming; FENG Weizhong; XU Jianping; YAN Jinghua; ZHAO Xue; ZHOU Shuihua; ZHANG Jiwei; QIAO Guanyu; LIN Fu

    2006-01-01

    In order to explore the interaction between the sea and monsoon in the South China Sea, the heat exchanges at air-sea interface during monsoon periods in 1986 were calculated using observational data. It shows that when the summer monsoon bursts and prevails over the South China Sea, the air-sea interface heat exchange is strong and the latent heat rises rapidly in the intertropical convergence zone and the tropic cyclone system near 20.49°N, 114.14°E. On May 24, 1986, the sensible heat became positive in the typhoon system. The heating exchange indicates that heat is transported from ocean to atmosphere, with major contribution of latent heat. When the summer monsoon prevails over the South China Sea and the weather is fine, even SST (sea surface temperature) is high, but sensible heat appears to be negative. The heat exchange indicates that heat is transported from atmosphere to ocean, with major contribution of short-wave radiation absorbed by sea surface and sensible heat. When summer monsoon is over and the northeast monsoon prevails over the South China Sea, the heat exchange at air-sea interface is very strong. The heating exchange shows that the ocean heats the atmosphere, with major contribution of latent heat when cold air arrives at the sea surface and the sensible heat rises to positive rapidly. Therefore it can be concluded that the heat exchange at air-sea interface is different from the SST in South China Sea. When the summer monsoon prevails over the South China Sea, the main trend is the ocean responding to the atmosphere.

  15. MODELING JUMPS IN RETURNS OF FINANCIAL ASSETS AS M4 PROCESSES: MEASURED EXCHANGE RATE EXPOSURE OF ASIAN EQUITY PORTFOLIO

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Djibrilla MOUSSA; Wei ZHANG

    2005-01-01

    Previous work on the exposure of equity markets to exchange rate risk, surprisingly, found stock returns were not significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. In this paper, we examine the relation between China, Japan and USA MSCI (Morgan & Stanley Capital International) daily equity index returns and SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) exchange rate returns of Chinese RMB and Japanese Yen in US dollar. We find a significant relation between Asian foreign equity stock returns and Chinese RMB and Japanese Yen exchange rate returns. This article incorporates foreign exchange values as partial determinants of Asian foreign equity market returns and suggests that currency risk is of hedging concern to investors with implications for portfolio management. We implement our result in portfolio's CaR determination under VaR constraints.

  16. Measurement of the thermal performance of a Borehole Heat Exchanger while injecting air bubbles in the groundwater

    OpenAIRE

    Calzada i Oliveras, Eduard

    2012-01-01

    The most common way to exchange heat with the ground in Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) applications is with borehole heat exchangers (energy col-lectors in vertical wells). These boreholes contain the pipe with the secondary fluid of the GSHP and they are often filled with natural groundwater. It has been recently discovered that injecting air bubbles in the groundwater side of the boreholes increases the efficiency of the heat transfer. The aim of this thesis is to analyze the thermal change...

  17. Air side performance of thermosyphon heat exchanger in low Reynolds number region: with and without electric field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wangnipparnto, S.; Tiansuwan, J.; Jiracheewanun, S. [King Mongkut' s Univ. of Technology, Thonburi, Bangkok (Thailand). School of Energy and Materials; Kiatsiriroat, T. [Chiang Mai Univ. (Thailand). Faculty of Engineering; Wang, C.C. [Industrial Technology Research Inst., Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

    2002-09-01

    This study concerns the air side performance of a thermosyphon heat exchanger with and without the presence of electrohydrodynamic (EHD) in the low Reynolds number region. For test results without EHD, the predictive ability of the well-known Zukauskas correlation significantly underestimates the present results. With the introduction of EHD, there is an insignificant increase of heat transfer coefficient when the supplied voltage is <15.5 kV. In the meantime, for a supplied voltage of 17.5 kV, the heat transfer coefficients can be improved by 15% at a Reynolds number of 58. However, the enhancement may drop to 10% when the Reynolds number is increased to 230. The power consumption relative to the heat transfer rate improvement is within 0.5-20%. The flow visualization experiment indicates that the corona wind is the major mechanism of heat transfer enhancement. However, the corona wind may be opposite to the air flow direction and reduce the benefits of EHD in the larger Reynolds number region. (Author)

  18. Air-Sea Exchange Of CO2: A Multi-Technology Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tengberg, A.; Almroth, E.; Anderson, L.; Hall, P.; Hjalmarsson, S.; Lefevre, D.; Omstedt, A.; Rutgersson, A.; Sahlee, E.; Smedman, A.; Wesslander, K.

    2006-12-01

    We report on experiences and results from a multidisciplinary project in which we try to elucidate the complex processes involved in air-sea exchange of CO2. This study was performed in the Baltic Sea (off the Swedish island Gotland) and combined the following technologies: - Meteorological measurements of wind, turbulence, temperature, humidity, humidity flux, CO2 and CO2 flux at several levels from a fixed observation tower - Hourly PCO2 measurements with a moored automatic instrument - Collection of dissolved oxygen, temperature, salinity and turbidity data at different levels in the water column at 1-minute intervals - Daily light (PAR) and primary production measurements obtained with a moored automatic incubator - Daily primary production measurements using manual methods - Use of an acoustic current profiler to collect water column information on currents, turbulence, water level and waves - Repetitive water column profiles, from a ship, of dissolved inorganic carbon, oxygen, nutrients, alkalinity, pH, PAR, Chlorophyll A, salinity and temperature

  19. Measurements of soil and canopy exchange rates in the Amazon rain forest using Rn-222

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbore, S. E.; Keller, M.; Wofsy, S. C.; Da Costa, J. M.

    1990-01-01

    Measurements were taken of the emission of Rn-222 from Amazon forest rocks and soils and used as a tracer of ventilation of the forest canopy layer at night. It was determined that the greatest resistance to transfer of trace gases from the soil to the atmosphere lies in the soil air space. Profiles of Rn-222 and CO2 showed steepest concentration gradients in the layer between 0 and 3 m above soil surface. Aerodynamic resistances calculated for this layer from Rn-222 and CO2 varied from 1.6 to 18 s/cm, with greater resistance during the afternoon than at night. The resistance to exchange with air from the entire 41 m layer below the canopy averaged 4.8 s/cm during 13 nights of CO2 profiles. The calculated average time to flush the layer below 41 m is 5.5 hr, and it is concluded that this indicates that significant exchange occurs despite nocturnal stratification.

  20. HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANTS: WET REMOVAL RATES AND MECHANISMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourteen hazardous organic air pollutants were evaluated for their potentials to be wet deposited by precipitation scavenging. This effort included a survey of solubilities (Henry's Law constants) in the literature, measurement of solubilities of three selected species, developme...