WorldWideScience

Sample records for air exchange rates

  1. Relationship between indoor radon concentrations and air exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The indoor concentration of radon and the air exchange rate were simultaneously measured in four empty rooms, made of brick and cement, which were located in different floors of dwelling houses in Taiyuan, Shanxi, China. SF6 tracer gas decay method was used to measure the air exchange rate. Indoor radon was collected with the dimembrane method. When the ventilation rate increased, the concentration of radon dropped rapidly. Regression analysis indicated that the indoor concentration of radon was equal to the outdoor level of radon when the air exchange rate was greater than 3-4. SF6 decay method was an effective and convenient method for measuring the air exchange rate. There was no marked difference in measurements obtained in different locations of a room. (N.K.)

  2. Review of Air Exchange Rate Models for Air Pollution Exposure Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure assessments is estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) for various buildings, where people spend their time. The AER, which is rate the exchange of indoor air with outdoor air, is an important determinant for entry of outdoor air pol...

  3. Exposure Modeling of Residential Air Exchange Rates for NEXUS Participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Due to cost and participant burden of personal measurements, air pollution health studies often estimate exposures using local ambient air monitors. Since outdoor levels do not necessarily reflect personal exposures, we developed the Exposure Model for Individuals (EMI) to improv...

  4. A Predictive Model for Vehicle Air Exchange Rates based on a Large, Representative Sample

    OpenAIRE

    Fruin, Scott A.; Hudda, Neelakshi; Sioutas, Constantinos; Delfino, Ralph J.

    2011-01-01

    The in-vehicle microenvironment is an important route of exposure to traffic-related pollutants, particularly ultrafine particles. However, significant particle losses can occur under conditions of low air exchange rate (AER) when windows are closed and air is recirculating. AERs are lower for newer vehicles and at lower speeds. Despite the importance of AER in affecting in-vehicle particle exposures, few studies have characterized AER and all have tested only a small number of cars. One reas...

  5. A Technical Basis for Employing Facility Ventilation Air Exchange Rates in the Decision to Downpost

    CERN Document Server

    Mantooth, D S

    2001-01-01

    Utilizing the ventilation exchange rate as a basis for the decision to downpost a location within a facility from an airborne radiation area (ARA) based on initial air count(DAC). Not used in the case of a confirmed or suspected contamination release.

  6. Spatiotemporally‐Resolved Air Exchange Rate as a Modifier of Acute Air Pollution‐Related Morbidity in AtlantaMorbidity in Atlanta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epidemiological studies frequently use central site concentrations as surrogates of exposure to air pollutants. Variability in air pollutant infiltration due to differential air exchange rates (AERs) is potentially a major factor affecting the relationship between central site c...

  7. The significance of determining air exchange rate in dwellings and buildings to calculate the inhalation dose in indoor air from outdoor air contaminated with radioactive material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following the first part, in this paper on a real case of escaped radioactive matter in gaseous or aerosol form the significance of known the air exchange rate for a prediction of wasted inhalation doses to population is illustrated. (authors)

  8. Experiments probing the influence of air exchange rates on secondary organic aerosols derived from indoor chemistry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weschler, Charles J.; Shields, H.C.

    2003-01-01

    particle size distributions. The experiments were performed in a manipulated office setting containing a constant source of d-limonene and an ozone generator that was remotely turned "on" or "off" at 6h intervals. The particle number concentrations were monitored using an optical particle counter with......Reactions between ozone and terpenes have been shown to increase the concentrations of submicron particles in indoor settings. The present study was designed to examine the influence of air exchange rates on the concentrations of these secondary organic aerosols as well as on the evolution of their...... studies, at an air exchange rate of 1.6h $+-1$/ particle number concentration in the 0.1-0.2$mu@m size-range peaked 1.2h after the ozone generator was switched on. In the ensuing 4.8h particle counts increased in successive size-ranges up to the 0.5-0.7$mu@m diameter range. At higher air exchange rates...

  9. Ventilation of indoor formaldehyde and estimation of its emission and air exchange rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Kun; ZHAO Qing-liang; LI Wen-pu; LI Yu-hua

    2007-01-01

    Residents living in the cold areas such as Harbin generally experience a residence time of approximately 6 months in chilly winter without frequent natural ventilation. To find out the influence of a short period of ventilation on the indoor formaldehyde concentration inside a new building, an investigation was conducted for the instance of twice ventilation in a day through window opening. The results showed that the initial concentration of formaldehyde was 3.53 - 8.48 times as high as the concentration after 10 min ventilation. After closing the window, the indoor formaldehyde concentration increased with time and followed an exponential equation of C = C0exp( - b * t) + (a + Cw) [ 1 - exp( - b * t) ] with correlation coefficient (R2) of 0. 945 -0. 999, based on the statistical analysis of 14 groups of measurement data. The developed equation can be used to estimate the emission rate of indoor formaldehyde sources and the air exchange rate of the test room simultaneously.

  10. Authentic Assessment in the Geometry Classroom: Calculating the Classroom Air-Exchange Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erich, David J.

    2002-01-01

    Introduces a room air-exchange activity designed to assess student understanding of the concept of volume. Lists materials for the activity and its procedures. Includes the lesson plan and a student worksheet. (KHR)

  11. Spatiotemporally-Resolved Air Exchange Rate as a Modifier of Acute Air Pollution-Related Morbidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Human Exposure and Atmospheric Sciences Division (HEASD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. HEASD research program supports Goal 1 (Clean Air) and Goal 4 (Healthy People) of EP...

  12. Measuring and modeling air exchange rates inside taxi cabs in Los Angeles, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Shi; Yu, Nu; Wang, Yueyan; Zhu, Yifang

    2015-12-01

    Air exchange rates (AERs) have a direct impact on traffic-related air pollutant (TRAP) levels inside vehicles. Taxi drivers are occupationally exposed to TRAP on a daily basis, yet there is limited measurement of AERs in taxi cabs. To fill this gap, AERs were quantified in 22 representative Los Angeles taxi cabs including 10 Prius, 5 Crown Victoria, 3 Camry, 3 Caravan, and 1 Uplander under realistic driving (RD) conditions. To further study the impacts of window position and ventilation settings on taxi AERs, additional tests were conducted on 14 taxis with windows closed (WC) and on the other 8 taxis with not only windows closed but also medium fan speed (WC-MFS) under outdoor air mode. Under RD conditions, the AERs in all 22 cabs had a mean of 63 h-1 with a median of 38 h-1. Similar AERs were observed under WC condition when compared to those measured under RD condition. Under WC-MFS condition, AERs were significantly increased in all taxi cabs, when compared with those measured under RD condition. A General Estimating Equation (GEE) model was developed and the modeling results showed that vehicle model was a significant factor in determining the AERs in taxi cabs under RD condition. Driving speed and car age were positively associated with AERs but not statistically significant. Overall, AERs measured in taxi cabs were much higher than typical AERs people usually encounter in indoor environments such as homes, offices, and even regular passenger vehicles.

  13. Measurement of air exchange rates in different indoor environments using continuous CO2 sensors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan YOU; Can Niu; Jian Zhou; Yating Liu; Zhipeng Bai; Jiefeng Zhang; Fei He; Nan Zhang

    2012-01-01

    A new air exchange rate (AER) monitoring method using continuous CO2 sensors was developed and validated through both laboratory experiments and field studies.Controlled laboratory simulation tests were conducted in a 1-m3 environmental chamber at different AERs (0.1-10.0 hr-1).AERs were determined using the decay method based on box model assumptions.Field tests were conducted in classrooms,dormitories,meeting rooms and apartments during 2-5 weekdays using CO2 sensors coupled with data loggers.Indoor temperature,relative humidity (RH),and CO2 concentrations were continuously monitored while outdoor parameters combined with on-site climate conditions were recorded.Statistical results indicated that good laboratory performance was achieved:duplicate precision was within 10%,and the measured AERs were 90%-120% of the real AERs.Average AERs were 1.22,1.37,1.10,1.91 and 0.73 hr-1 in dormitories,air-conditioned classrooms,classrooms with an air circulation cooling system,reading rooms,and meeting rooms,respectively.In an elderly particulate matter exposure study,all the homes had AER values ranging from 0.29 to 3.46 hr-1 in fall,and 0.12 to 1.39 hr-1 in winter with a median AER of 1.15.

  14. The importance of determining the air exchange rate in flats and buildings for calculations of the averted indoor inhalation doses arising from contaminated outdoor air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The indoor-outdoor air exchange rate is an important parameter when refining estimates of the averted inhaled doses to population in houses and buildings after an emergency event resulting in contamination of outdoor air with a radioactive material. The air exchange rates measured in 70 occupied houses and in 20 unoccupied houses using N2O as the tracer gas are presented, and the results of modelling the averted doses in the residential buildings for both gaseous and aerosol outdoor contaminants are demonstrated. (orig.)

  15. Development and Evaluation of a New Air Exchange Rate Algorithm for the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    between-home and between-city variability in residential pollutant infiltration. This is likely a result of differences in home ventilation, or air exchange rates (AER). The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model is a population exposure model that uses a pro...

  16. Seasonal Variations of Indoor Microbial Exposures and Their Relation to Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Air Exchange Rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Mika; Bekö, Gabriel; Timm, Michael; Gustavsen, Sine; Hansen, Erik Wind; Madsen, Anne Mette

    2012-01-01

    temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates in Danish homes. Airborne inhalable dust was sampled in five Danish homes throughout the four seasons of 1 year (indoors, n = 127; outdoors, n = 37). Measurements included culturable fungi and bacteria, endotoxin, N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase, total......Indoor microbial exposure has been related to adverse pulmonary health effects. Exposure assessment is not standardized, and various factors may affect the measured exposure. The aim of this study was to investigate the seasonal variation of selected microbial exposures and their associations with...... inflammatory potential, particles (0.75 to 15 μm), temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates. Significant seasonal variation was found for all indoor microbial exposures, excluding endotoxin. Indoor fungi peaked in summer (median, 235 CFU/m3) and were lowest in winter (median, 26 CFU/m3). Indoor...

  17. Gas exchange rates across the sediment-water and air-water interfaces in south San Francisco Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Blayne; Hammond, Douglas E.

    1984-01-01

    Radon 222 concentrations in the water and sedimentary columns and radon exchange rates across the sediment-water and air-water interfaces have been measured in a section of south San Francisco Bay. Two independent methods have been used to determine sediment-water exchange rates, and the annual averages of these methods agree within the uncertainty of the determinations, about 20%. The annual average of benthic fluxes from shoal areas is nearly a factor of 2 greater than fluxes from the channel areas. Fluxes from the shoal and channel areas exceed those expected from simple molecular diffusion by factors of 4 and 2, respectively, apparently due to macrofaunal irrigation. Values of the gas transfer coefficient for radon exchange across the air-water interface were determined by constructing a radon mass balance for the water column and by direct measurement using floating chambers. The chamber method appears to yield results which are too high. Transfer coefficients computed using the mass balance method range from 0.4 m/day to 1.8 m/day, with a 6-year average of 1.0 m/day. Gas exchange is linearly dependent upon wind speed over a wind speed range of 3.2–6.4 m/s, but shows no dependence upon current velocity. Gas transfer coefficients predicted from an empirical relationship between gas exchange rates and wind speed observed in lakes and the oceans are within 30% of the coefficients determined from the radon mass balance and are considerably more accurate than coefficients predicted from theoretical gas exchange models.

  18. Gas exchange rates across the sediment-water andd air-water interfaces in south San Francisco Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radon 222 concentrations in the water and sedimentary columns and radon exchange rates across the sediment-water and air-water interfaces have been measured in a section of south San Francisco Bay. Two independent methods have been used to determine sediment-water exchange rates, and the annual averages of these methods agree within the uncertainity of the determinations, about 20%. The annual average of bethic fluxes from shoal areas is nearly a factor of 2 greater than fluxes from the channel areas. Fluxes from the shoal and channel areas exceed those expected from simple molecular diffusion by factors of 4 and 2, respectively, apparently due to macrofaunal irrigation. Values of the gas transfer coefficient for radon exchange across the air-water inteface were determined by constructing a radon mass balance for the water column and by direct measurement using floating chambers. The chamber method appears to yield results which are too high. Transfer coefficients computed using the mass balance method range from 0.4 m/day to 1.8 m/day, with a 6-year average of 1.0 m/day. Gas exchange is linearly dependent upon wind speed over a wind speed range of 3.2--6.4 m/s, but shows no dependence upon current velocity. Gas transfer coefficients predicted from an empirical relationship between gas exchange rates and wind speed observed in lakes and the oceans are within 30% of the coefficients determined from the radon mass balance and are considerably more accurate than coefficients predicted from theoretical gas exchange models

  19. School buildings with air exchange rates that do not meet minimum professional guidelines or codes and implications for radon control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the past two years, a substantial number of schools in the United States have tested for radon. Some of them have found radon levels elevated above the EPA action level of 4 pCi/L. In order to decide whether increased ventilation or building pressurization is an appropriate response, the mechanical system must be investigated and an estimate of the air exchange rate made. Air exchange rates in schools have been estimated using a combination of carbon dioxide measurements in occupied rooms, airflow measurements of exhaust and outside air, and fan pressurization of the building shell. Not all of these tests were performed in all schools. Experience in investigating elevated radon in dozens of public schools has revealed that a large fraction of them do not have ventilation rates that meet minimum guidelines as outlined in ASHRAE 62-1989, Ventilation for Acceptable Indoor Air Quality, and, in some instances, state code. In many cases, they do not even meet the professional guidelines that were accepted at the time the school was designed and built. Causes for this condition include inappropriate responses to escalating energy prices in the late 1970s, lack of funds to maintain equipment, and complaints of thermal discomfort caused by some ventilation systems

  20. Exchange Rate Regime Choice

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    The choice of an adequate exchange rate regime proves to be a highly sensitive field within which the economic authorities present and confirm themselves. The advantages and disadvantages of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes, which have been quite relativized from the conventional point of view, together with simultaneous, but not synchronised effects of structural and external factors, remain permanently questioned throughout a complex process of exchange rate regime decision making. ...

  1. Exchange rate regime choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of an adequate exchange rate regime proves to be a highly sensitive field within which the economic authorities present and confirm themselves. The advantages and disadvantages of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes, which have been quite relativized from the conventional point of view, together with simultaneous, but not synchronized effects of structural and external factors, remain permanently questioned throughout a complex process of exchange rate regime decision making. The paper reflects the attempt of critical identification of the key exchange rate performances with emphasis on continuous non-uniformity and (uncertainty of shelf life of a relevant choice.

  2. Development and Evaluation of a New Air Exchange Rate Algorithm for the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model (ISES Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Previous exposure assessment panel studies have observed considerable seasonal, between-home and between-city variability in residential pollutant infiltration. This is likely a result of differences in home ventilation, or air exchange rates (AER). The Stochastic Human Exposure ...

  3. Attempt to determine radon entry rate and air exchange rate variable in time from the time course of indoor radon concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For radon diagnosis in houses the 'ventilation experiment' was used as a standard method. After removal of indoor radon by draught the build-up of radon concentration a(t [Bq/m3] was measured continuously and from the time course the constant radon entry rate A [Bq/h] and the exchange rate k [h-1] was calculated by regression analysis using model relation a(t) A(1-e-kt)/kV with V [m3] for volume of the room. The conditions have to be stable for several hours so that the assumption of constant A and k was justified. During the day both quantities were independently (?) changing, therefore a method to determine variable entry rate A(t) and exchange rate k(t) is needed for a better understanding of the variability of the indoor radon concentration. Two approaches are given for the determination of variable in time radon entry rates and air exchange rates from continuously measured indoor radon concentration - numerical solution of the equivalent difference equations in deterministic or statistic form. The approaches are not always successful. Failures giving a right ration for the searched rates but not of the rates them self could not be explained

  4. Exchange Rate Economics

    OpenAIRE

    John Williamson

    2008-01-01

    The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative “behavioral” model, which recognizes that the foreign exchange market is populated by both fundamentalists and chartists is presented. It is argued that the main importance of understanding the foreign exchange market for development s...

  5. Identifying Housing and Meteorological Conditions Influencing Residential Air Exchange Rates in the DEARS and RIOPA Studies: Development of Distributions for Human Exposure Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appropriate prediction of residential air exchange rate (AER) is important for estimating human exposures in the residential microenvironment, as AER drives the infiltration of outdoor-generated air pollutants indoors. AER differences among homes may result from a number of fact...

  6. Determination of air exchange rates of rooms and deposition factors for fine particles by means of photoelectric aerosol sensors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Indoor and outdoor concentrations or airborne fine particles from internal combustion engines have been measured over periods of 24 h with a time resolution of 10 s. With this time series, the ventilation air exchange rate of different rooms has been computed using a novel approach to the solution of the mass balance equation. A 'mixing time' parameter has been introduced in order to account for the initial non-homogeneous distribution of the pollutants in the rooms. It is demonstrated that this method can be used to determine the impact of health relevant outdoor particles on the indoor particle concentration. This yields information on the protection a building offers against pollutants entering from outdoors. (author)

  7. Low air exchange rate causes high indoor radon concentration in energy-efficient buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since 1995, requirements on energy-efficient building construction were established in Russian Building Codes. In the course of time, utilisation of such technologies became prevailing, especially in multi-storey building construction. According to the results of radon survey in buildings constructed meeting new requirements on energy efficiency, radon concentration exceeds the average level in early-constructed buildings. Preponderance of the diffusion mechanism of radon entry in modern multi-storey buildings has been experimentally established. The experimental technique of the assessment of ventilation rate in dwellings under real conditions was developed. Based on estimates of average ventilation rate, it was approved that measures to increase energy efficiency lead to reduction in ventilation rate and accumulation of higher radon concentrations indoors. Obtained ventilation rate values have to be considered as extremely low. (authors)

  8. Currency Exchange Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siler, Carl R.

    This curriculum unit of the Muncie (Indiana) Southside High School is to simulate the dynamics of foreign currency exchange rates from the perspectives of: (1) a major U.S. corporation, ABB Power T & D Company, Inc., of Muncie, Indiana, a manufacturer of large power transformers for the domestic and foreign markets; and (2) individual consumers…

  9. Real Exchange Rate Targets, Nominal Exchange Rate Policies, and Inflation Real Exchange Rate Targets, Nominal Exchange Rate Policies, and Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    J. Saúl Lizondo

    1991-01-01

    Real Exchange Rate Targets, Nominal Exchange Rate Policies, and Inflation Thh paper examines the implications of some nominal exchange rate policies aimed or attaining a given real exchange rate target. A policy rule that sets the rate of nominal depreciation as a function of the departures of the real exchange rate from its target level is unable to achieve the target. In contrast, a policv rule that sets the change in the rate of depreciation as a function of those departures may lead the e...

  10. The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Francis Vitek

    2005-01-01

    We survey and update the empirical literature concerning the predictability of nominal exchange rates using structural macroeconomic models over the recent floating exchange rate period. In particular, we consider both flexible and sticky price versions of the monetary model of nominal exchange rate determination. In agreement with the existing empirical literature, we find that nominal exchange rate movements are difficult to forecast, with a random walk generally dominating the monetary mod...

  11. EXCHANGE RATE - REGIMES AND POLICIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novak Lučić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate of one currency is the price of the currency expressed in units of other currency. It is formed by the interaction of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. Given that the exchange rate has a direct impact on the competitiveness of a country in terms of features of its exports and imports, in its balance of payments, and indirectly the overall economic and social development, in addition to acting in market principles - supply and demand in the formation of the equilibrium exchange rate, exchange rate is subject to different, stronger or weaker, more or less, forms of intervention. In the search for the optimal exchange rate policy of the national currency, the monetary authorities are positioned between the two extremes - the complete abandonment of the exchange rate to the market laws of supply and demand, or fixing the exchange rate for any of the selected anchor currency.

  12. Exchange Rate Risk and the Macroeconomics of Exchange Rate Determination

    OpenAIRE

    Rudiger Dornbusch

    1980-01-01

    This paper discusses the link between portfolio diversification models of exchange risk and the macroeconomics of exchange rate determination. A first part sets out the mean-variance model of portfolio choice for the case of two nominal assets with random real returns. From there the model is made "international" by a specification of the world inflation process. The concept of exchange risk is discussed in terms of the variability of the real exchange rate. The paper shows that when all rand...

  13. Exchange Rate Predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Yablonskyy, Karen

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to analyze the foreign exchange currency forecasting techniques. Moreover the central idea behind the topic is to develop the strategy of forecasting by choosing indicators and techniques to make own forecast on currency pair EUR/USD. This thesis work is a mixture of theory and practice analyses. The goal during the work on this project was to study different types of forecasting techniques and make own forecast, practice forecasting and trading on Forex platform, ba...

  14. Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Hodrick, Robert J

    1987-01-01

    This paper explores a new direction for empirical models of exchange rate determination. The motivation arises from two well documented facts, the failure of log-linear empirical exchange rate models of the 1970's and the variability of risk premiums in the forward market. Rational maximizing models of economic behavior imply that changes in the conditional variances of exogenous processes, such as future monetary policies, future government spending, and future rates of income growth, can ha...

  15. Persistent, Nonfundamental Exchange Rate Fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Irasema Alonso

    2004-01-01

    A trading-post model of money is used to show how exchange rates can be affected by extrinsic uncertainty. With no uncertainty in fundamentals, we demonstrate that there exist equilibria where exchange rates as well as consumption allocations follow a stationary random process. The uctuations are permanent, and they affect economic welfare. These findings also apply when the currency supplies grow at different rates. Then, the only stationary equilibria in which both monies are valued are tho...

  16. Income and Exchange Rate Sensitivities of Cross-Border Freight Flows: Evidence from U.S.-Canada Exports and Imports by Truck, Rail, Air, and Pipeline

    OpenAIRE

    Chi, Junwook

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to improve understanding of the long-run impacts of the gross domestic product (GDP), real exchange rate, and the producer price index (PPI) on U.S.-Canada bilateral freight flows in a dynamic framework. Special attention is given to cross-border exports and imports by truck, rail, pipeline, and air. Using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) approach, the paper finds that the GDP of the importing country is a pronounced factor influencing U.S.- Canada cross-bord...

  17. Exchange Rates and Old People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowd, James J.

    1980-01-01

    Extends earlier work on aging as a process of exchange by focusing on the issue of exchange rates and how they are negotiated. Access to power resources declines with age, placing the old person in the position of negotiating from weakness. (Author)

  18. Exchange rate determination in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Thai-Ha Le

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the determinants of the exchange rate in Vietnam and suggests policy implications. Gregory-Hansen cointegration tests and generalised variance decomposition (VDC) analysis were applied to monthly data from July 2004 to December 2013. The model was built based on the three popular approaches to exchange rate determination, which are purchasing power parity (PPP) approach, balance of payment (BOP) approach, and monetary and portfolio approach. This study finds that the p...

  19. Exchange Rate Regimes and Location

    OpenAIRE

    Ricci, Luca Antonio

    1997-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes on location choices of firms and on the degree of specialization of countries. In a two-country two-differentiated-good monetary model, demand, supply, and monetary shocks arise after wages are set and prices are optimally chosen. The exchange rate performs then an adjustment role for firms located in the country relatively specialized in the good they produce, but it constitutes a factor of disturbance for the...

  20. Tritium isotopic exchange in air detritiation dryers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isotopic exchange between tritiated and non-tritiated water species in a molecular sieve bed has been demonstrated. At high humidities (+6 degrees Celsius dew point) the rate of tritium isotopic exchange in a 2.4 L molecular sieve bed has been demonstrated to be at least 50% of published exchange rates. In an industrial-sized air detritiation dryer, utilizing the pretreatment technique of H2O steam washing to elute the residual tritium, a DF of 12 600 has been demonstrated when operating at an inlet vapor tritium concentration of 14 Ci/kg and at inlet and outlet dew points of 4.8 and -54 degrees Celsius, respectively. In the NPD dryer bed studied, which was not optimally designed for full benefit from isotopic exchange, at least one order of magnitude in additional detritiation is attributed to isotopic exchange in the unsaturated zone. The technique of eluting the residual tritium from an industrial sized bed by H2O washing at high temperature, high humidity and low bed loading has been demonstrated to be a fast and effective way of removing tritium from a molecular sieve bed during regeneration. The isotopic exchange model accurately predicted the exchange between tritiated and non-tritiated water species in a molecular sieve bed where there is no net adsorption or desorption. The model's prediction of the tritium breakthrough trend observed in the NPD tests was poor; however, a forced fit can be achieved if the exchange rates in the MTZ and the unsaturated zone are manipulated. More experiments are needed to determine the relative rates of tritium exchange in the saturated, mass transfer, and unsaturated zones of a dryer bed

  1. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEŠA LOTRIČ DOLINAR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Using spectral analysis is very common in technical areas but rather unusual in economics and finance, where ARIMA and GARCH modeling are much more in use. To show that spectral analysis can be useful in determining hidden periodic components for high-frequency finance data as well, we use the example of foreign exchange rates

  2. Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Ariel Burstein; Martin Eichenbaum; Sergio Rebelo

    2004-01-01

    In this Paper we argue that the primary force behind the large drop in real exchange rates that occurs after large devaluations is the slow adjustment in the price of non-tradable goods and services. Our empirical analysis uses data from five large devaluation episodes: Argentina (2001), Brazil (1999), Korea (1997), Mexico (1994), and Thailand (1997). We conduct a detailed analysis of the Argentina case using disaggregated CPI data, data from our own survey of prices in Buenos Aires, and scan...

  3. Expenditure Switching and Exchange Rate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Charles Engel

    2002-01-01

    Nominal exchange rate changes can lead to 'expenditure switching' when they change relative international prices. A traditional argument for flexible nominal exchange rates posits that when prices are sticky in producers' currencies, nominal exchange rate movements can change relative prices between home and foreign goods. But if prices are fixed ex ante in consumers' currencies, nominal exchange rate flexibility cannot achieve any relative price adjustment. In that case nominal exchange rate...

  4. The Exchange Rate Exposure Puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Bartram, Söhnke M.; Bodnar, Gordon

    2005-01-01

    Based on basic financial models and reports in the business press, exchange rate movements are generally believed to affect the value of nonfinancial firms. In contrast, the empirical research on nonfinancial firms typically produces fewer significant exposures estimates than researchers ex-pect, independent of the sample studied and the methodology used, giving rise to a situation known as “the exposure puzzle”. This paper provides a survey of the existing research on the exposure phenomenon...

  5. Exchange Rate Choices of Microstates

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick A. Imam

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we first explain why most microstates (countries with less than 2 million inhabitants) have gained independence only in the last 30 years. Despite the higher costs and risks microstates face, their ability to better accommodate local preferences combined with a more integrated world economy probably explains why the benefits of independence have risen. We explain why microstates at independence have chosen either dollarization, currency board arrangements, or fixed exchange rate...

  6. Modeling Spatial and Temporal Variability of Residential Air Exchange Rates for the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air pollution health studies often use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates. Failure to account for variability of residential infiltration of outdoor pollutants can induce exposure errors and lead to bias and incorrect confidence intervals in health effect estimates. Th...

  7. Model test of air-exchange efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klobut, K.

    1987-01-01

    The mixing-air flow pattern was studied. Three air flows were tested using the tracer gas technique and decay method. The indices of air exchange efficiency were calculated, namely: overall air-exchange efficiency and room-air mean age for the whole room; local ventilation indices and local mean ages of air at 10 points distributed throughout the room. Experiments were carried out in both isothermal and nonisothermal conditions. Based on the theory of similarity requirements, a reduced-scale model, geometrically similar to the laboratory test room, was built. Air flows and temperature differences were calculated for the model tests in order to make them comparable with the full scale, and the tests were repeated. The objective of the study was to determine the relation between the air-exchange efficiency indices obtained in the model and on the full scale.

  8. Risk appetite and exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Tobias ADRIAN; Etula, Erkko; Shin, Hyun-song

    2015-01-01

    We present evidence that the growth of U.S.-dollar-denominated banking sector liabilities forecasts appreciations of the U.S. dollar, both in-sample and out-of-sample, against a large set of foreign currencies. We provide a theoretical foundation for a funding liquidity channel in a global banking model where exchange rates fluctuate as a function of banks' balance sheet capacity. We estimate prices of risk using a cross-sectional asset pricing approach and show that the U.S. dollar funding l...

  9. Risk appetite and exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Tobias ADRIAN; Etula, Erkko; Shin, Hyun Song

    2009-01-01

    We present evidence that the growth of U.S.-dollar-denominated banking sector liabilities forecasts appreciations of the U.S. dollar, both in-sample and out-of-sample, against a large set of foreign currencies. We provide a theoretical foundation for a funding liquidity channel in a global banking model where exchange rates fluctuate as a function of banks’ balance sheet capacity. We estimate prices of risk using a cross-sectional asset pricing approach and show that the U.S. dollar funding l...

  10. Net carbon dioxide exchange rates and predicted growth patterns in Alstroemeria Jacqueline' at varying irradiances, carbon dioxide concentrations, and air temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leonardos, E.D.; Tsujita, M.J.; Grodzinski, B. (Univ. of Guelph, Ontario (Canada). Dept. of Horticultural Science)

    1994-11-01

    The influence of irradiance, CO[sub 2] concentration, and air temperature on leaf and whole-plant net C exchange rate (NCER) of Alstroemeria Jacqueline' was studied. At ambient CO[sub 2], leaf net photosynthesis was maximum at irradiances above 600 [mu]mol[center dot]m[sup [minus]2][center dot]s[sup [minus]1] photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), while whole-plant NCER required 1,200 [mu]mol[center dot]m[sup [minus]2][center dot]s[sup [minus]1] PAR to be saturated. Leaf and whole-plant NCERs were doubled under CO[sub 2] enrichment of 1,500 to 2,000 [mu]l CO[sub 2]/liter. Leaf and whole-plant NCERs declined as temperature increased from 20 to 35 C. Whereas the optimum temperature range for leaf net photosynthesis was 17 to 23 C, whole-plant NCER, even at high light and high CO[sub 2], declined above 12 C. Dark respiration of leaves and whole plants increased with a Q[sub 10] of [approx] 2 at 15 to 35 C. In an analysis of day effects, irradiance, CO[sub 2] concentration, and temperature contributed 58%, 23%, and 14%, respectively, to the total variation in NCER explained by a second-order polynomial model (R[sup 2] = 0.85). Interactions among the factors accounted for 4% of the variation in day C assimilation. The potential whole-plant growth rates during varying greenhouse day and night temperature regimes were predicted for short- and long-day scenarios. The data are discussed with the view of designing experiments to test the importance of C gain in supporting flowering and high yield during routine harvest of Alstroemeria plants under commercial greenhouse conditions.

  11. Net carbon dioxide exchange rates and predicted growth patterns in Alstroemeria 'Jacqueline' at varying irradiances, carbon dioxide concentrations, and air temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The influence of irradiance, CO2 concentration, and air temperature on leaf and whole-plant net C exchange rate (NCER) of Alstroemeria 'Jacqueline' was studied. At ambient CO2, leaf net photosynthesis was maximum at irradiances above 600 micromoles.m-2.s-1 photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), while whole-plant NCER required 1200 micromoles.m-2.s-1 PAR to be saturated. Leaf and whole-plant NCERs were doubled under CO2 enrichment of 1500 to 2000 microliters CO2/liter. Leaf and whole-plant NCERs declined as temperature increased from 20 to 35C. Whereas the optimum temperature range for leaf net photosynthesis was 17 to 23C, whole-plant NCER, even at high light and high CO2, declined above 12C. Dark respiration of leaves and whole plants increased with a Q10 of approximately 2 at 15 to 35C. In an analysis of day effects, irradiance, CO2 concentration, and temperature contributed 58%, 23%, and 14%, respectively, to the total variation in NCER explained by a second-order polynomial model (R2 = 0.85). Interactions among the factors accounted for 4% of the variation in day C assimilation. The potential whole-plant growth rates during varying greenhouse day and night temperature regimes were predicted for short- and long-day scenarios. The data are discussed with the view of designing experiments to test the importance of C gain in supporting flowering and high yield during routine harvest of Alstroemeria plants under commercial greenhouse conditions. (author)

  12. The determinants of exchange rate in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel BENAZIC

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The dilemma for every country with an independent monetary policy is which kind of exchange rate arrangement should be applied. Through the exchange rate policy, countries can influence their economies, i.e. price stability and export competiveness. Croatia is a new EU member state, it has its own monetary policy and currency but it is on the way to euro introduction. Regarding the experiences from the beginning of the 1990s when Croatia was faced with serious monetary instabilities and hyperinflation, the goal of Croatian National Bank (CNB is to ensure price stability and one way to do so is through exchange rate policy. Croatia, as a small and open economy, has applied a managed floating exchange rate regime. The exchange rate is determined primarily by the foreign exchange supply and demand on the foreign exchange market, with occasional market interventions by the CNB. Therefore, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, policymakers must be able to recognize how changes in these factors affect changes in the exchange rate. This research aims to find a relationship among the main sources of foreign currency inflow and outflow and the level of exchange rate in Croatia. The analysis is carried out by using the bounds testing (ARDL approach for co-integration. The results indicate the existence of a stable co-integration relationship between the observed variables, whereby an increase in the majority of variables leads to an exchange rate appreciation.

  13. Comparing Forecast Performance of Exchange Rate Models

    OpenAIRE

    Lillie Lam; Laurence Fung; Ip-wing Yu

    2008-01-01

    Exchange-rate movement is regularly monitored by central banks for macroeconomic-analysis and market-surveillance purposes. Notwithstanding the pioneering study of Meese and Rogoff (1983), which shows the superiority of the random-walk model in out-of-sample exchange-rate forecast, there is some evidence that exchange-rate movement may be predictable at longer time horizons. This study compares the forecast performance of the Purchasing Power Parity model, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity model...

  14. Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Long Run Properties of Real Exchange Rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Dreger, Christian; Girardin, Eric

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines whether the behaviour of the real exchange rate is associated with a particular regime for the nominal exchange rate, like fixed and flexible exchange rate arrangements. The analysis is based on 16 annual real exchange rates and covers a long time span, 1870-2006. Four subperiods are distinguished and linked to exchange rate regimes: the Gold Standard, the interwar float, the Bretton Woods system and the managed float thereafter. Panel integration techniques are applied to...

  15. Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Azerbaijan

    OpenAIRE

    Hasanov, Fakhri; Huseynov, Fariz

    2009-01-01

    By using quarterly data from 2001-2007 and applying various approaches, we estimate real equilibrium exchange rate misalignment for Azerbaijani Manat (AZN) and find that AZN is slightly overvalued. Purchasing power parity approach does not explain the equilibrium exchange rate. However using behavioral and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches, we find that the relative productivity, terms of trade, trade openness, net foreign assets, government expenditures and oil prices are the ma...

  16. Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Siriwutiset, Trin

    2006-01-01

    Exchange rate fluctuations play an important role in economic decision. The rise or falls in exchange rate are one of the most concerned issue in macroeconomics. This study aims to identify the sources of exchange rate fluctuations of the Thai Baht from various types of shocks between 1997:09 and 2002:08 by using VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model. The past empirical studies such as Flood and Rose (1995) argue that the prevailing structural models fail to predict most of the fluctuation ...

  17. DETERMINANTS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN ETHIOPIA

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. P.Nandeeswara Rao; Tassew Dufera Tolcha

    2016-01-01

    Real exchange rate has direct effects on trade particularly on international trade and has indirect effects on productions and employments, so it is crucial to understand the factors which determine its variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants using yearly Ethiopian time series data covering the period 1971 to 2010. It begins with a review of literatures on Exchan...

  18. Exchange rate volatility and euro area imports

    OpenAIRE

    Anderton, Robert; Skudelny, Frauke

    2001-01-01

    This paper estimates an import demand function for the euro area vis--vis its main extra-area trading partners which takes into account the possible impact of both intra- and extra-euro area exchange rate uncertainty. We derive a theoretical model which captures various mechanisms by which exchange rate volatility may influence the demand for extra-euro area imports. If importers are risk averse, the model predicts not only a negative effect of exchange rate volatility, but also substitution ...

  19. Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Tunisian Exchange Rate Market

    OpenAIRE

    Dhekra Azouzi; Rohit Vishal Kumar; Chaker Aloui

    2011-01-01

    Based on a linear framework, this paper aims to examine the relationship between future spot rates and forward exchange rates using USD-TND data, thanks to traditional regressions and to the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in order to check if the Unbiasedness Forward Exchange Rate (UFER) hypothesis is satisfied and if the forward premiums contain valuable information useful to forecast the subsequent path that will be taken by spot exchange rates. The empirical analysis reveals that the...

  20. The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Maurice Obstfeld; Kenneth Rogoff

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack. But if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets, the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange-rate peg can be very high. The dynamic interplay betw...

  1. Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Masson, Paul; RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

    2003-01-01

    This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

  2. Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Roberto; Velasco, Andres

    1998-01-01

    We study financial fragility, exchange rate crises and monetary policy in an open economy model in which banks are maturity transformers as in Diamond-Dybvig. The banking system, the exchange rate regime, and central bank credit policy are seen as parts of a mechanism intended to maximize social welfare; if the mechanism fails, banking crises and speculative attacks become possible. We compare currency boards, fixed rate and flexible rates, with and without a lender of last resort. A currency...

  3. Injection of Helium 3 and SF6 in a lake for the determination of gaseous exchange rates at the water-air interface: implementation, analysis and experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to study the hypothesis of an under-rating of the exchange velocity at the ocean-atmosphere interface that could explain the lack of CO2 in the global CO2 balance, an experiment was carried out in two lakes at the Kerguelen Islands where strong winds are common, in order to evaluate precisely the relation between the transfer coefficient and the wind velocity: 3He and SF6 tracers were injected in the lakes; concentration evolutions were recorded and results are shown to validate the above assumption. 6 figs., 1 tab., 9 refs

  4. Real exchange rate targeting and macroeconomic instability

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Uribe

    1995-01-01

    This paper introduces a real exchange rate rule of the type analyzed by Dornbusch (1982) in an optimizing, two-sector, monetary model of a small open economy. By this rule the government increases the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate is below its long-run level and reduces it when the real exchange rate is above its long-run level. I show that the mere existence of such a rule can give room for extrinsic uncertainty to have real effects, that is, it can generate economic fluctuati...

  5. The mirage of floating exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    2000-01-01

    This note summarizes some of the highlights of my longer paper with Guillermo Calvo”Fear of Floating.” Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents to that view suggest that countries move to corner solutions--hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on...

  6. Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Theptida Sopraseuth

    2003-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate regimes on international business cycles and focuses on the consequences of membership to the European Monetary System. The volatility puzzle uncovered by Baxter and Stockman [1989, Journal of Monetary Economics 23, 377–401] after assessing the consequences of the Bretton Woods system turns out to be a robust stylized fact: real and nominal exchange rates display a higher volatility under floating rates while the variability of macroeconom...

  7. Exchange Rate Regimes, Location, and Specialization

    OpenAIRE

    Luca Antonio Ricci

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of fixed versus flexible exchange rates on firms' location choices and on countries' specialization patterns. In a two-country, twodifferentiated-goods monetary model, uncertainty arises after wages are set and prices are optimally chosen. The paper shows that countries are more specialized under flexible than fixed rates, which indicates that the pattern of specialization is not uniquely defined by trade models but also depends on the exchange rate regime....

  8. RMB Exchange Rate Reform: Past and Future

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Zhen

    2009-01-01

    @@ With the deepening of China's financial reform, economic development and the enforcement of market roles, the RMB exchange rate needs to become more flexible and become a more sensitive reflection of the changes in market supply and demand. Under such circumstances, on July 21, the People's Bank of China announced that the previous system where China's RMB was pegged to the U.S. Dollar would be changed to include a basket of foreign currencies, shifting China's exchange rate system into a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand.

  9. Immigrants' Labor Supply and Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Arash Nekoei

    2013-01-01

    Are an immigrant's decisions affected in real time by her home country's economy? I examine this question by exploiting exchange rate variations as exogenous price shocks to immigrants' budget constraints. I find that in response to a 10 percent dollar appreciation, an immigrant decreases her earnings by 0.92 percent, mainly by reducing hours worked. The exchange rate effect is greater for recent immigrants, married immigrants with absent spouses, Mexicans close to the border, and immigrants ...

  10. China's monetary policy and the exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Mehrotra, Aaron; Sanchez-Fung, Jose

    2010-01-01

    The paper models monetary policy in China using a hybrid McCallum–Taylor empirical reaction function. The feedback rule allows for reactions to inflation and output gaps, and to developments in a trade-weighted exchange rate gap measure. The investigation finds that monetary policy in China has, on average, accommodated inflationary developments. But exchange rate shocks do not significantly affect monetary policy behaviour, and there is no evidence of a structural break in the estimated reac...

  11. Can Taylor rule fundamentals predict exchange rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Wan, Yiding

    2012-01-01

    Recent research suggests that there are many favourable features of the asset- pricing model of exchange rates incorporating Taylor rules. Against this back- ground, this thesis focuses on the relationship between the exchange rate and Taylor rule fundamentals. The introductory chapter provides a short summary of the most relevant literature, and explains the connections between the main chapters. In chapter 2, we mainly follow Engel and West's (2006) framework of the asset-...

  12. Inattentive Consumers and Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Mehmet Fatih, Ekinci

    2010-01-01

    We present and study the properties of a sticky information exchange rate model where consumers and producers update their information sets infrequently. We find that introducing inattentive consumers has important implications. Through a mechanism resembling the limited participation models, we can address the exchange rate volatility for reasonable values of risk aversion. We observe more persistence in output, consumption and employment which brings us closer to the data. Impulse responses...

  13. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Lithuania

    OpenAIRE

    Dubauskas, Gediminas

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes Lithuanian monetary and exchange rate developments. Experiences of the other two Baltic states Estonia and Latvia have been analysed as well. New monetary and financial institutions introduced in all Baltic states faced several problems. One was how to maintain the credibility for new fixed exchange rates in order to preserve positive effect on the economy due to the sharp fall of the inflation. The currency board system has been proposed as a reasonable solution. Central ...

  14. Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows

    OpenAIRE

    Harald Hau; Helene Rey

    2002-01-01

    We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete forex risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for U.S. global mutual funds, has three important implications: 1) exchange rates are almost as volatile as equity prices when the forex liquidity supply is not infinitely price elastic; 2) higher returns in the home equity market relative to the foreign equity market are associated with a home currency...

  15. Exchange Rates, Equity Prices and Capital Flows

    OpenAIRE

    Hau, Harald; Rey, Hélène

    2003-01-01

    We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete forex risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for US global mutual funds, has three important implications: 1) exchange rates are almost as volatile as equity prices when the forex liquidity supply is not infinitely price elastic; 2) higher returns in the home equity market relative to the foreign equity market are associated with a home currency d...

  16. Exchange rates, equity returns and capital flows

    OpenAIRE

    Helene Rey; Harald Hau

    2004-01-01

    We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete forex risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for U.S. global mutual funds, has three important implications: 1) exchange rates are almost as volatile as equity prices when the forex liquidity supply is not infinitely price elastic; 2) higher returns in the home equity market relative to the foreign equity market are associated with a home currency...

  17. A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Clements, Kenneth W.; Yihui Lan

    2006-01-01

    Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several serious problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the CPI, that are used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon....

  18. Sticky prices and sectoral real exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick J. Kehoe; Virgiliu Midrigan

    2007-01-01

    The classic explanation for the persistence and volatility of real exchange rates is that they are the result of nominal shocks in an economy with sticky goods prices. A key implication of this explanation is that if goods have differing degrees of price stickiness then relatively more sticky goods tend to have relatively more persistent and volatile good-level real exchange rates. Using panel data, we find only modest support for these key implications. The predictions of the theory for pers...

  19. The Exchange-Rate Question in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Giavazzi, Francesco

    1989-01-01

    This paper reviews the arguments for and against monetary unification in Europe, taking into account the recent shift in emphasis in discussions of exchange rate regimes. It discusses the merits of irrevocably fixed versus flexible exchange rates in the light of the literature on international strategic interactions, where inefficiencies arise from countries' incentives to run beggar-thy-neighbor policies. The long run level of inflation is viewed as determined by the 'credibility' of the mon...

  20. Exchange Rate and Political Risks, Again

    OpenAIRE

    Clare, Gregory; Ira N. Gang

    2009-01-01

    We examine the effects of exchange rate and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) for multinationals. Our strategy is to examine FDI by U.S. firms at two levels: in all industries and on the subset of only firms in manufacturing industries. When investing in developed economies the firms appear to take past and present variation in exchange rates into consideration. When investing in less developed nations the past and present variation does not appear to weigh as heavily as the ...

  1. Exchange Rate Exposure and Exchange Rate Risk Management: The case of Japanese exporting firms

    OpenAIRE

    Ito, Takatoshi; KOIBUCHI Satoshi; SATO Kiyotaka; SHIMIZU Junko

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate Japanese firms' exchange rate exposure and investigate the impact of exchange rate risk management on them. By using the results of the questionnaire survey sent to all Tokyo Stock Exchange listed firms in 2009, we conduct empirical analysis to investigate whether each risk management tool—financial and operational hedging, the choice of invoice currency, and the price revision strategy (pass-through)—specifically affects their foreign exchange exposure. As a result...

  2. Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Tunisian Exchange Rate Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhekra Azouzi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on a linear framework, this paper aims to examine the relationship between future spot rates and forward exchange rates using USD-TND data, thanks to traditional regressions and to the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM in order to check if the Unbiasedness Forward Exchange Rate (UFER hypothesis is satisfied and if the forward premiums contain valuable information useful to forecast the subsequent path that will be taken by spot exchange rates. The empirical analysis reveals that the UFER hypothesis is rejected and that the forward premium is a crucial tool, at short term, to detect the future movements of spot exchange rates. A potential enrichment of such a paper will rely on a non linearframework.

  3. A fundamentally new approach to air-cooled heat exchangers.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koplow, Jeffrey P.

    2010-01-01

    We describe breakthrough results obtained in a feasibility study of a fundamentally new architecture for air-cooled heat exchangers. A longstanding but largely unrealized opportunity in energy efficiency concerns the performance of air-cooled heat exchangers used in air conditioners, heat pumps, and refrigeration equipment. In the case of residential air conditioners, for example, the typical performance of the air cooled heat exchangers used for condensers and evaporators is at best marginal from the standpoint the of achieving maximum the possible coefficient of performance (COP). If by some means it were possible to reduce the thermal resistance of these heat exchangers to a negligible level, a typical energy savings of order 30% could be immediately realized. It has long been known that a several-fold increase in heat exchanger size, in conjunction with the use of much higher volumetric flow rates, provides a straight-forward path to this goal but is not practical from the standpoint of real world applications. The tension in the market place between the need for energy efficiency and logistical considerations such as equipment size, cost and operating noise has resulted in a compromise that is far from ideal. This is the reason that a typical residential air conditioner exhibits significant sensitivity to reductions in fan speed and/or fouling of the heat exchanger surface. The prevailing wisdom is that little can be done to improve this situation; the 'fan-plus-finned-heat-sink' heat exchanger architecture used throughout the energy sector represents an extremely mature technology for which there is little opportunity for further optimization. But the fact remains that conventional fan-plus-finned-heat-sink technology simply doesn't work that well. Their primary physical limitation to performance (i.e. low thermal resistance) is the boundary layer of motionless air that adheres to and envelops all surfaces of the heat exchanger. Within this

  4. THERMAL ANALYSIS OF EARTH AIR HEAT EXCHANGER USING CFD

    OpenAIRE

    Vaibhav Madane; Meeta Vedpathak

    2015-01-01

    This project focuses on Earth Air Heat Exchanger which is reducing energy consumption in a building. The air is passing through the buried tubes and heat exchange takes place between air and surrounding soil. This equipment helps to reduce energy consumption of an air conditioning unit. This project analyses the thermal performance of earth air heat exchanger by using computational fluid dynamics modeling. The model is validated against experimental observations and investigations...

  5. Capital Controls and the Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Sweder van Wijnbergen

    1989-01-01

    Using an intertemporal, two-country general equilibrium model, I demonstrate that international asymmetries in expenditure patterns determine the real exchange rate effects of capital controls. Capital import taxes lower world interest rates, but raise home interest rates. These changes in interest rates bring about a change in the composition of world expenditure, with a shift of home expenditure from the present ('today') to the future ('tomorrow'), and a shift of foreign aggregate expendit...

  6. Real Exchange Rate Variability under Pegged and Floating Nominal Exchange Rate Systems: An Equilibrium Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Alan C. Stockman

    1988-01-01

    This paper proposes a new explanation for the greater variability of real exchange rates under pegged than under floating nominal exchange rate systems. The explanation hinges on the propensity of governments to use international trade restrictions and financial restrictions for balance-of-payments purposes under pegged exchange rates. In particular. these restrictions become more likely during periods of time when countries suffer losses of international reserves than might. without policy c...

  7. Exchange rate and fiscal performance : Do fixed exchange rate regimes generate more discipline than flexible ones?

    OpenAIRE

    Vúletin, Guillermo Javier

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyzes the influence of exchange rate regimes on fiscal performance, focusing on the difference between fixed and flexible exchange rates. For these ends, a sample of 83 countries for the 1974-1998 period, the GMM methodology for dynamic proposal panel models proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991) and diverse exchange rate classifications are used. In relation to the latter, this paper discusses recent regimes classifications and proposes a new one that permits to cover possible in...

  8. Apparent exchange rate imaging in anisotropic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Lundell, Henrik M; Søgaard, Lise V; Dyrby, Tim B

    2014-01-01

    Double-wave diffusion experiments offer the possibility of probing correlation between molecular diffusion at multiple time points. It has recently been shown that this technique is capable of measuring the exchange of water across cellular membranes. The aim of this study was to investigate the ...... effect of macroscopic tissue anisotropy on the measurement of the apparent exchange rate (AXR) in multicompartment systems.......Double-wave diffusion experiments offer the possibility of probing correlation between molecular diffusion at multiple time points. It has recently been shown that this technique is capable of measuring the exchange of water across cellular membranes. The aim of this study was to investigate the...

  9. Do time-averaged, whole-building, effective volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions depend on the air exchange rate? A statistical analysis of trends for 46 VOCs in U.S. offices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rackes, A; Waring, M S

    2016-08-01

    We used existing data to develop distributions of time-averaged air exchange rates (AER), whole-building 'effective' emission rates of volatile organic compounds (VOC), and other variables for use in Monte Carlo analyses of U.S. offices. With these, we explored whether long-term VOC emission rates were related to the AER over the sector, as has been observed in the short term for some VOCs in single buildings. We fit and compared two statistical models to the data. In the independent emissions model (IEM), emissions were unaffected by other variables, while in the dependent emissions model (DEM), emissions responded to the AER via coupling through a conceptual boundary layer between the air and a lumped emission source. For 20 of 46 VOCs, the DEM was preferable to the IEM and emission rates, though variable, were higher in buildings with higher AERs. Most oxygenated VOCs and some alkanes were well fit by the DEM, while nearly all aromatics and halocarbons were independent. Trends by vapor pressure suggested multiple mechanisms could be involved. The factors of temperature, relative humidity, and building age were almost never associated with effective emission rates. Our findings suggest that effective emissions in real commercial buildings will be difficult to predict from deterministic experiments or models. PMID:26010216

  10. Visibility graph approach to exchange rate series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yue; Wang, Jianbo; Yang, Huijie; Mang, Jingshi

    2009-10-01

    By means of a visibility graph, we investigate six important exchange rate series. It is found that the series convert into scale-free and hierarchically structured networks. The relationship between the scaling exponents of the degree distributions and the Hurst exponents obeys the analytical prediction for fractal Brownian motions. The visibility graph can be used to obtain reliable values of Hurst exponents of the series. The characteristics are explained by using the multifractal structures of the series. The exchange rate of EURO to Japanese Yen is widely used to evaluate risk and to estimate trends in speculative investments. Interestingly, the hierarchies of the visibility graphs for the exchange rate series of these two currencies are significantly weak compared with that of the other series.

  11. Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Zhanwei Z. Yue; Samir Jahjah

    2004-01-01

    We test the hypothesis of a link between exchange rate policy and sovereign bonds. We analyze the effect of exchange rate policies on supply and credit spreads of sovereign bonds issued by developing countries. An exchange rate policy is captured by the de facto exchange rate regime and the real exchange rate misalignment. The main findings are: (1) real exchange rate overvaluation significantly increases sovereign bond issue probability and raises bond spreads; (2) spreads and the likelihood...

  12. Exchange rate arrangements: From extreme to "normal"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies theoretical and empirical location dispersion of exchange rate arrangements - rigid-intermediate-flexible regimes, in the context of extreme arrangements of a currency board, dollarization and monetary union moderate characteristics of intermediate arrangements (adjustable pegs crawling pegs and target zones and imperative-process "normalization" in the form of a managed or clean floating system. It is established that de iure and de facto classifications generate "fear of floating" and "fear of pegging". The "impossible trinity" under the conditions of capital liberalization and globalization creates a bipolar view or hypothesis of vanishing intermediate exchange rate regimes.

  13. Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Liang

    1998-01-01

    A recent study by Grilli and Kaminsky (1991) argues that real exchange rate (RER) behavior is likely to be dependent on the particular historical period rather than on the nominal exchange rate arrangement itself. This paper reexamines RER behavior using alternative data sets, as well as different econometric methods, over the period 1880-1997. It finds strong evidence supporting the nonneutrality hypothesis of nominal exchange regime on RER volatility. Also, regime shifts play an important r...

  14. Exchange-Rate Return Predictability and the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from Major Foreign Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Charles, Amélie; Olivier DARNÉ; Kim, Jae H

    2010-01-01

    This study examines return predictability of major foreign exchange rates by testing for martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) using daily and weekly nominal exchange rates from 1975 to 2009. We use three alternative tests for the MDH, which include the wild bootstrap automatic variance ratio test, generalized spectral test, and Dominguez-Lobato consistent tests. We evaluate time-varying return predictability by applying these tests with fixed-length moving sub-sample windows. While exchange...

  15. Exchange-rate forecasts and asymmetric loss: empirical evidence for the yen/dollar exchange rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    We used the yen/dollar exchange-rate forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyse whether exchange-rate forecasters have an asymmetric loss function. To this end, we applied an approach recently developed by Elliott et al. (2005). We found that only few forecasters seem to form...

  16. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...

  17. Real exchange rates in emerging economies

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brůha, J.; Podpiera, Jiří

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 3 (2010), s. 599-628. ISSN 0967-0750 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : real exchange rate * emerging economies * two-country modelling Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.536, year: 2010

  18. Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burstein, Ariel; Eichenbaum, Martin; Rebelo, Sergio

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we argue that the primary force behind the large drop in real exchange rates that occurs after large devaluations is the slow adjustment in the prices of nontradable goods and services. Our empirical analysis uses data from five large devaluation episodes: Argentina (2002), Brazil (1999), Korea (1997), Mexico (1994), and Thailand…

  19. Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Vinhas de Souza

    2002-01-01

    textabstractHere the author empirically estimates if the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author fol

  20. Deforestation and the Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Arcand, Jean-Louis; Guillaumont, Patrick; Guillaumont Jeanneney, Sylviane

    2011-01-01

    Deforestation is a phenomenon that has largely been concentrated in the developing world. We construct a theoretical model of deforestation that focuses on the factors affecting the incentives to transform forested land into agricultural land. We show that: (i) lower discount rates (associated with higher income levels), stronger institutions, and increases in the relative price of timber decrease deforestation; (ii) depreciations in the real exchange rate increase deforestation in developing...

  1. Heat Recovery Ventilation for Housing: Air-to-Air Heat Exchangers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, Robert J.; Miller, Barbara

    The air-to-air heat exchanger (a fan powered ventilation device that recovers heat from stale outgoing air) is explained in this six-part publication. Topic areas addressed are: (1) the nature of air-to-air heat exchangers and how they work; (2) choosing and sizing the system; (3) installation, control, and maintenance of the system; (4) heat…

  2. Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanke, Michael; Poulsen, Rolf; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Since its announcement made on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level.We use a compound option pricing approach to...... estimate the latent exchange rate that would prevail in the absence of the SNB’s interventions, together with the market’s confidence in the SNB’s commitment to this policy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc....

  3. Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Optimal Participation in International Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Mundaca, Gabriela

    2011-01-01

    Instead of just focusing on the effect of exchange rate levels (undervalued or overvalued exchange rates) on trade, this paper provides an analysis of the effects of exchange rate volatility levels on international trade. Intuitively, an increase in exchange rate volatility leads to uncertainty for agents participating in international trade, and such uncertainty might have a negative impa...

  4. Forecasting Exchange Rates with Mixed Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Maria Badea

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Gaining accuracy in exchange rate forecasting applications provides true benefits for financial activities. Supported today by the advancements in computing power, machine learning techniques provide good alternatives to traditional time series estimation methods. Very approached in time series forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs which offer robust results and allow a flexible data manipulation. When integrating both, the “white-box” feature of conventional methods and the complexity of machine learning techniques, forecasting models perform even better in terms of generated errors. In this study, input variables (independent variables are selected using an ARIMA technique and are further employed in differently configured multilayered feed-forward neural networks using Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS optimization algorithm to perform predictions on EUR/RON and CHF/RON exchange rates. Results in terms of mean squared error highlight good results when using mixed models.

  5. Nominal effective exchange rate neutrality: the case of Macedonia

    OpenAIRE

    Josheski, Dushko; Lazarov, Darko

    2012-01-01

    urrently, the exchange rate regime in the Republic of Macedonia is what is refered to as a "managed float." The exchange rate of the denar is established on the basis of supply and demand of foreign exchange markets. The denar exchange rate against the euro serves as a fundamental of the Republic of Macedonia monetary policy. Money supply and interest rates are dictated by the exchange rate target. This paper uses Structural Vector Autoregression method to find empirical evidence ...

  6. Determinants of exchange rates: An empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Canelas, José Pedro Lourenço Prates

    2014-01-01

    This research focuses on the possible lag relationship among exchange rates. The period considered (2000-2013) comprises the Financial Crisis and therefore it was divided into two distinct periods: before and during the crisis. Before the crisis, the returns of Sweden and the Euro Zone seem to have impact on the British, Korean and Australian ones. During the crisis, there is evidence of the Euro and Sterling Pound influence on the Australian and New Zealand Dollar. Interestingly, the Swedish...

  7. Exchange rate arrangements from extreme to normal

    OpenAIRE

    Emilija Beker

    2006-01-01

    The paper studies theoretical and empirical location dispersion of exchange rate arrangements - rigid-intermediate-flexible regimes, in the context of extreme arrangements of a currency board, dollarization and monetary union, moderate characteristics of intermediate arrangements (adjustable pegs, crawling pegs and target zones) and imperative-process normalization in the form of a managed or clean floating system. It is established that de iure and de facto classifications generate fear of f...

  8. Exchange rates, expected returns and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Anella Munro

    2014-01-01

    According to theory, higher expected foreign risk-free returns and foreign currency risk both increase foreign yields, but have opposing effects on the value of the foreign currency. This paper exploits that relationship to jointly identify the unobserved risk-free return and risk premium components of exchange rates and expected relative returns. When risk and return are jointly modelled over a 10-year horizon, UIP cannot be rejected for any of the eight advanced country USD currency pairs e...

  9. Exchange rate arrangements from extreme to normal

    OpenAIRE

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    The paper studies theoretical and empirical location dispersion of exchange rate arrangements - rigid-intermediate-flexible regimes, in the context of extreme arrangements of a currency board, dollarization and monetary union moderate characteristics of intermediate arrangements (adjustable pegs crawling pegs and target zones) and imperative-process "normalization" in the form of a managed or clean floating system. It is established that de iure and de facto classifications generate "fear of ...

  10. Taxation, corruption and the exchange rate regime

    OpenAIRE

    Hefeker, Carsten

    2008-01-01

    The paper analyzes the relation between institutional quality, such as corruption, in a country and its monetary regime. It is shown that a credibly fixed exchange rate to a low inflation country, like a currency board, can reduce corruption and improve the fiscal system. A monetary union, however, has ambiguous effects. I find that that there is convergence between countries with regard to the level of corruption.

  11. Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Sucarrat, Genaro; Rime, Dagfinn

    2007-01-01

    We study the role played by geographic and bank-size heterogeneity in the relation between exchange rate variability and market activity. We find some support for the hypothesis that increases in short-term global interbank market activity, which can be interpreted as due to variation in information arrival, increase variability. However, our results do not suggest that local short-term activity increases variability. With respect to long-term market activity, which can be interpreted as a me...

  12. Teaching Post Keynesian Exchange Rate Theory

    OpenAIRE

    John Harvey

    2006-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to provide a model and method for those wishing to include the Post Keynesian perspective when teaching exchange rate theory. It begins by reviewing neoclassical approaches (purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and the Dornbusch model) and then develops a graphical Post Keynesian model that is based on Keynes's Z-D diagram, endogenous money, a currency market driven by portfolio capital flows, and no assumption of a tendency toward full employment or balanced...

  13. New Chapter in Exchange Rate Reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Introduction of new trading model has multiple significance China's central bank invited public bidding among 10 major domestic commercial banks to carry out one-year-long currency swap transactions last November. This move, according to Zuo Xiaolei, Chief Economist of China Galaxy Securities Co. Ltd., not only enables financial derivatives to become an operational instrument for implementing monetary policy, but also represents another action of the marketization of the exchange rate regime after an ear...

  14. From monetary to exchange rate targets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.J. ARTIS

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper was presented at the Fourth International Seminar on European Economic and Monetary Union, held in Copenhagen in March of 1981. The author takes up the theoretical issues in the framework of both static and dynamic analysis. He argues, on the basis of the criterion of minimising the variance of prices around their target value, that an exchange-rate target outperforms a monetary target under most conceivable types of disturbances in a static analysis. 

  15. Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Linda S. Goldberg

    1990-01-01

    This paper predicts ex-ante the probability of currency crises end size of expected devaluations month by month for Mexico between 1980 and 1986 using a heterodox linear discrete time model of exchange rate crises. The forces contributing to speculative attacks on the Mexican peso include internal money creation, external credit shocks, and relative price shocks. The framework proves highly successful for generating forecasts of the probability of speculative attacks on the peso and for predi...

  16. Evaluation of exchange rate forecasts for the krona’s nominal effective exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Degrér, Henrik; Hansen, Jan; Sellin, Peter

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we evaluate the out of sample forecasting performance of a large number of models belonging to a popular class of exchange rate models. Forecasts of the Swedish nominal effective exchange rate for the period 1980-2000 are performed using both single equation estimation and VAR approaches. The forecast horizons used were from 1 to 12 quarters. None of the models evaluated could convincingly outperform a random walk alternative.

  17. Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization

    OpenAIRE

    Burstein, Ariel Tomas; Joao C. Neves; Rebelo, Sérgio

    2001-01-01

    This Paper studies the role played by distribution costs in shaping the behaviour of the real exchange rate during exchange-rate-based stabilizations. We document that distribution costs are very large for the average consumer good: the represent more than 40% of the retail price in the US and 60% of the retail price in Argentina. Distribution services require local labour and so so they drive a natural wedge between retail prices in different countries. We show that introducing a distributio...

  18. Design and simulation of heat exchangers using Aspen HYSYS, and Aspen exchanger design and rating for paddy drying application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janaun, J.; Kamin, N. H.; Wong, K. H.; Tham, H. J.; Kong, V. V.; Farajpourlar, M.

    2016-06-01

    Air heating unit is one of the most important parts in paddy drying to ensure the efficiency of a drying process. In addition, an optimized air heating unit does not only promise a good paddy quality, but also save more for the operating cost. This study determined the suitable and best specifications heating unit to heat air for paddy drying in the LAMB dryer. In this study, Aspen HYSYS v7.3 was used to obtain the minimum flow rate of hot water needed. The resulting data obtained from Aspen HYSYS v7.3 were used in Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR) to generate heat exchanger design and costs. The designs include shell and tubes and plate heat exchanger. The heat exchanger was designed in order to produce various drying temperatures of 40, 50, 60 and 70°C of air with different flow rate, 300, 2500 and 5000 LPM. The optimum condition for the heat exchanger were found to be plate heat exchanger with 0.6 mm plate thickness, 198.75 mm plate width, 554.8 mm plate length and 11 numbers of plates operating at 5000 LPM air flow rate.

  19. Exchange Rate Exposure: A f irm and Industry Level Investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Sadik Cukur

    2008-01-01

    Exchange rate exposure has become one of the most important subjects in international finance area after collapsing fixed exchange rate system. Several studies have been devoted to explore the relationship between exchange rate changes and the value of the firm. This study aims to investigate this relationship in the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market. The results of univariate model and multivariate models indicate that 30 % of the firms are affected negatively against exchange rate changes. The...

  20. Global exchange rate configurations: Do oil shocks matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Buetzer, Sascha; Habib, Maurizio Michael; Stracca, Livio

    2012-01-01

    Do oil shocks matter for exchange rates? This paper addresses this question based on data on real and nominal exchange rates as well as an exchange market pressure index for 44 advanced and emerging countries. We identify three structural shocks (oil supply, global demand, and oil specific demand) which raise the real oil price and analyse their effect on individual exchange rates. Contrary to the predictions of the theoretical literature, we find no evidence that exchange rates of oil export...

  1. The Behavior of Foreign Exchange Rates – Comment†

    OpenAIRE

    Jacky C. So

    1986-01-01

    The distributors of foreign exchange rates are important for model building and empirical analysis. For example, many studies have examined foreign exchange market efficiency and currency portfolio management under the assumption that foreign exchange rates are normally distributed. The statistical tests in these studies, and thus their conclusions, may not be reliable if the foreign exchange rates follow non-normal distributions. Realizing the importance of the distribution of exchange rates...

  2. Stochastic Simulation of the Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria ALDEA

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The rational expectations paradigm, that dominates macroeconomicsfails to take into account the complexity of the information, which is so vast that the individual brain cannot understand the full of it. The agents are boundedly rational,so they use simple forecasting rules that do not incorporate all available information, but they are willing to learn and will switch to other rules if it turns out that these rules are more profitable than the rule they have been using. Such trial and error learning strategies create the dynamics in the foreign exchange market, with two types of equilibria, a fundamental and a non-fundamental equilibrium to which the exchange rate is attracted.

  3. Overshooting and Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle: A Reappraisal

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Olivier Hairault; Lise Patureau; Thepthida Sopraseuth

    2004-01-01

    Transitions to floating exchange rate regimes have led to sharp increases in exchange rate volatilities with no corresponding changes in the distribution of macroeconomic fundamentals. In the spirit of Dornbusch (1976), we assess whether nominal exchange rate overshooting is responsible for this phenomenon. As long as uncovered interest rate parity holds, nominal exchange rate overshooting is linked to a persistent fall in the spread between domestic and foreign nominal interest rates. We thu...

  4. What Drives Exchange Rates? Reassessing Currency Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira Filipe, Sara; Maio, Paulo

    2015-01-01

    We compute a variance decomposition for the log exchange rate based on a present-value relation. At long horizons, return predictability drives the variation in the exchange rate while predictability of future interest rate differentials plays a secondary role. At shorter horizons, the dominant source is predictability of the future spot rate. There is more return predictability and less interest spread and exchange rate predictability in the case of real exchange rates compared to nominal ex...

  5. Overshooting and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle: a reappraisal

    OpenAIRE

    Hairault, Jean-Olivier; Patureau, Lise; Sopraseuth, Thepthida

    2003-01-01

    Transition to floating exchange rate regimes has led to sharp increases in nominal and real exchange rate volatilities with no corresponding changes in the distribution of fundamental macroeconomic variables. In the spirit of Dornbusch [1976], we assess whether nominal exchange rate overshooting is responsible for this phenomenon. As long as uncovered interest rate parity holds, nominal exchange rate overshooting is linked to a persistent fall in the spread between domestic and foreign nomina...

  6. Nominal Anchor Exchange Rate Policies as a Domestic Distortion

    OpenAIRE

    Anne O. Krueger

    1997-01-01

    This paper analyzes a nominal anchor exchange rate policy as a domestic distortion, in the tradition of international trade theory. It is shown that, in addition to the problems of sustainability and exit pinpointed in the exchange rate literature, a nominal anchor exchange rate policy, while in force, drives a wedge between the domestic and the international intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. The welfare cost of the Mexican use of the nominal anchor exchange rate policy prior to D...

  7. Exchange rate volatility and international trade: The option approach

    OpenAIRE

    Franke, Günter

    1986-01-01

    Usually it is argued that an increase in exchange rate volatility reduces the volume of international trade since trading firms are risk averse. This paper shows for risk neutral firms that the expected international trade volume in standardized commodities grows with exchange rate volatility. The firms adjust their trade volume to the exchange rate level. The more favorable the exchange rate is, the higher is the export volume. If the rate drops below some level, exports are stopped. Thus in...

  8. The SOLAS air-sea gas exchange experiment (SAGE) 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Mike J.; Law, Cliff S.; Smith, Murray J.; Hall, Julie A.; Abraham, Edward R.; Stevens, Craig L.; Hadfield, Mark G.; Ho, David T.; Ward, Brian; Archer, Stephen D.; Cainey, Jill M.; Currie, Kim I.; Devries, Dawn; Ellwood, Michael J.; Hill, Peter; Jones, Graham B.; Katz, Dave; Kuparinen, Jorma; Macaskill, Burns; Main, William; Marriner, Andrew; McGregor, John; McNeil, Craig; Minnett, Peter J.; Nodder, Scott D.; Peloquin, Jill; Pickmere, Stuart; Pinkerton, Matthew H.; Safi, Karl A.; Thompson, Rona; Walkington, Matthew; Wright, Simon W.; Ziolkowski, Lori A.

    2011-03-01

    The SOLAS air-sea gas exchange experiment (SAGE) was a multiple-objective study investigating gas-transfer processes and the influence of iron fertilisation on biologically driven gas exchange in high-nitrate low-silicic acid low-chlorophyll (HNLSiLC) Sub-Antarctic waters characteristic of the expansive subpolar zone of the southern oceans. This paper provides a general introduction and summary of the main experimental findings. The release site was selected from a pre-voyage desktop study of environmental parameters to be in the south-west Bounty Trough (46.5°S 172.5°E) to the south-east of New Zealand and the experiment was conducted between mid-March and mid-April 2004. In common with other mesoscale iron addition experiments (FeAX's), SAGE was designed as a Lagrangian study, quantifying key biological and physical drivers influencing the air-sea gas exchange processes of CO 2, DMS and other biogenic gases associated with an iron-induced phytoplankton bloom. A dual tracer SF 6/ 3He release enabled quantification of both the lateral evolution of a labelled volume (patch) of ocean and the air-sea tracer exchange at tenths of kilometer scale, in conjunction with the iron fertilisation. Estimates from the dual-tracer experiment found a quadratic dependency of the gas exchange coefficient on windspeed that is widely applicable and describe air-sea gas exchange in strong wind regimes. Within the patch, local and micrometeorological gas exchange process studies (100 m scale) and physical variables such as near-surface turbulence, temperature microstructure at the interface, wave properties and windspeed were quantified to further assist the development of gas exchange models for high-wind environments. There was a significant increase in the photosynthetic competence ( Fv/ Fm) of resident phytoplankton within the first day following iron addition, but in contrast to other FeAX's, rates of net primary production and column-integrated chlorophyll a concentrations had

  9. Air pollution and human fertility rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.; Basagaña, Xavier; Dadvand, Payam; Martinez, David; Cirach, Marta; Beelen, Rob; Jacquemin, Bénédicte

    2014-01-01

    Background: Some reports have suggested effects of air pollution on semen quality and success rates of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in humans and lower fertility rates in mice. However, no studies have evaluated the impact of air pollution on human fertility rates. Aims: We assessed the association

  10. NATREX AND DETERMINATION OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE OF RMB

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Holger van Eden; LIU Bin; Gerbert Romyn; YANG Xiaoguang

    2001-01-01

    ]n this paper, we analyze the movements of the real exchange rate in China.Our empirical evidence shows that the purchasing power parity does not hold in the long run, and the real exchange rate is non-stationary. The decomposition of the movements of the real exchange rate also indicates that real shocks result in permanent changes in the real exchange rate whereas nominal shocks just result in temporary changes.Based on these facts,we apply NATREX approach to analyze the detrmination of real exchange rate in China.The NATREX model successfully explains the evolution of the real exchange rate in China:The real exchange rate in the long run is determined by the real fundamentals including the productivity at home and abroad,and the domestic time preference.In the long run,a rise of the domestic productivity significantly appreciates the real exchange rate whereas a rise of the foreign productivity significantly appreciates the real exchange rate whereas a rise of the fireign productivity or a rise of the domestic time preference significantly depreciates the real exchange rate.We also find that the estimated NATREX rate converges to the steady-state exchange rate in the long run.Although there are short-run fluctuations around the NATREX rate,the real exchange rate will converge to the NATREX rate over time.

  11. Statistical Analysis Regarding the Evolutions of the Euro Exchange Rate and the Dollar Exchange Rate, in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects a the statistical modeling of the values concerning the annual averages of the euro exchange rate, respectively the dollar exchange rate in Romania, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. The exchange rate represents the price regardinga monetary unit from the currency which belongs to a country, expressed in the monetary unit of the another country. Also, the exchange rate takes into consideration the type of quotation which linking the two currencies involved at the exchange ratio. The exchange rates have been more volatile over time, then relative price levels and rates of inflation.

  12. Global changes and the air-sea exchange of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Present and potential future changes to the global environment have important implications for marine pollution and for the air-sea exchange of both anthropogenic and natural substances. This report addresses three issues related to the potential impact of global change on the air-sea exchange of chemicals: Global change and the air-sea transfer of the nutrients nitrogen and iron. Global change and the air-sea exchange of gases. Oceanic responses to radiative and oxidative changes in the atmosphere. The deposition of atmospheric anthropogenic nitrogen has probably increased biological productivity in coastal regions along many continental margins. Atmospheric deposition of new nitrogen may also have increased productivity somewhat in mid-ocean regions. The projected future increases of nitrogen oxide emissions from Asia, Africa and South America will provide significant increases in the rate of deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the central North Pacific, the equatorial Atlantic, and the equatorial and central South Indian Oceans. Atmospheric iron may be an important nutrient in certain open regions. Future changes will likely occur if there are changing patterns of aridity and wind speed as a result of climate change. The most important future effects on surface ocean pCO2 will likely be caused by changes in ocean circulation. The pH of the ocean would decrease by ∼0.3 units for a doubling of pCO2, reducing the capacity of the ocean to take up CO2. There is increasing evidence that dimethyl sulfide from the ocean is a source of cloud condensation nuclei and thus a factor controlling cloud albedo. By 2060 in the southern hemisphere reduction in total column stratospheric ozone from recent levels could reach 2 to 5% in the tropics, 10% at mid latitudes, and over 20% at 60 deg C. S. In this same time frame increases in ground-level effective UV-B radiation could reach 5%, 26% and 66%, at low, mid, and high latitudes in the southern hemisphere. Changes in

  13. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østrup, Finn

    regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy...

  14. Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Boug, Pål; Cappelen, Ådne; Eika, Torbjørn

    2005-01-01

    Abstract: Several small open economies switched to inflation targeting during the 1990s, thereby giving up various forms of exchange rate targeting in favour of flexible exchange rates. Norway did the same early in 2001, and has thereafter experienced highly varying nominal exchange rates with consumer price inflation dropping far below the target during 2003 and 2004. Knowledge of the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices and further to consumer prices is essen...

  15. Exchange Rate Regime in Russia, Evaluation and Recommendations

    OpenAIRE

    Olga, Vasilevskaya

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies exchange rate choice in Russia with respect to social, economic and political determinants. The study deliberately narrowed the scope of the discussion to two extreme cases, i.e. fixed and floating exchange rate. Today Russia applies managed floating exchange rate arrangement and it is important to determine the direction of the further monetary policy development either towards fixed or floating exchange rate. The paper argues that the logical extension of the historical t...

  16. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area

    OpenAIRE

    Rajmund MIRDALA

    2015-01-01

    Time-varying exchange rate pass-through effects to domestic prices under fixed euro exchange rate perspective represent one of the most challenging implications of the common currency. The problem is even more crucial when examining crisis related redistributive effects associated with relative price changes. The degree of the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices reveals its role as the external price shocks absorber especially in the situation when the leading path of exchange rates...

  17. Macroeconomic News 'Surprises' and the Rand/Dollar Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Johannes Fedderke; Philippe Flamand

    2005-01-01

    Economic theory in the context of floating exchange rates has focussed on underlying medium and long term direction of exchange rate movements. Daily volatility is less well understood. One theory that offers an explanation for short term exchange rate movements is that of the efficient market hypothesis or EMH. Its application to the forex market allows exchange rate movements to be understood as the reaction of traders to relevant news. In an efficient market traders react to news and speci...

  18. Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Sarno, Lucio; Valente, Giorgio; Mark E. Wohar

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the dynamic relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and its fundamentals across different exchange rate regimes using data going back to the late 1800s or early 1900s for six industrialized countries. For these countries there is evidence of a long-run relation between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals consistent with conventional theories of exchange rate determination. We employ a Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model that allows for ...

  19. The Limited Viability of Dual Exchange-Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Jacob A. Frenkel; Assaf Razin

    1986-01-01

    This paper examines the viability of dual exchange-rate regimes. Typically, under such a regime the exchange rates applicable to current-account(commercial) transactions and to capital-account (financial) transactions differ from each other. This difference may be determined in the free market if the authorities peg the commercial exchange rate and set a binding quota on external borrowing, or it may result from direct pegging of both exchange rates. The analysis starts with a specification o...

  20. Threshold stationary real exchange rates: a nonlinear, multivariate approach

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Shively

    2003-01-01

    Purchasing power parity implies that real exchange rates are stationary. However, the finding of nonstationary real exchange rates has been difficult to dismiss. Using a nonlinear, three-regime structural bivariate threshold model, this paper finds evidence of threshold stationary real exchange rates which is consistent with purchasing power parity adjusted for market frictions such as transaction costs.

  1. 38 CFR 3.32 - Exchange rates for foreign currencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... pension and parents' DIC shall be projected using the most recent quarterly exchange rate and shall be... determined using the quarterly exchange rate for the quarter in which the expenses forming the basis of the... most recent quarterly exchange rate. Cross-references: Accrued benefits. See § 3.1000. Accrued...

  2. Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Mishkin, Frederic S.

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses what recent economic research tells us about exchange rate pass-through and what this suggests for the control of monetary policy. It first focuses on exchange rate pass-through from a macroeconomic perspective and then examines the microeconomic evidence. In light of this evidence, it then discusses the implications of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy.

  3. Exchange Flow Rate Measurement Technique in Density Different Gases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motoo Fumizawa

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Buoyancy-driven exchange flows of helium-air through inclined a narrow tube was investigated. Exchange flows may occur following the opening of a window for ventilation, as well as when a pipe ruptures in a high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The experiment in this paper was carried out in a test chamber filled with helium and the flow was visualized using the smoke wire method. A high-speed camera recorded the flow behavior. The image of the flow was transferred to digital data, and the slow flow velocity, i.e. micro flow rate was measured by PIV software. Numerical simulation was carried out by the code of moving particle method with Lagrange method.

  4. Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics: the exchange rate as a shock absorber

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Audzei, Volha; Brázdik, F.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, č. 5 (2015), s. 391-410. ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : Czech Republic * exchange rates * sign restrictions Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.420, year: 2014 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1340_audzei.pdf

  5. EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND FISCAL PERFORMANCE. DO FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES GENERATE MORE DISCIPLINE THAN FLEXIBLE ONES?

    OpenAIRE

    Guillermo J. Vuletin

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes the influence of exchange rate regimes on fiscal performance, focusing on the difference between fixed and flexible exchange rates. For these ends, a sample of 83 countries for the 1974-1998 period, the GMM methodology for dynamic proposal panel models proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991) and diverse exchange rate classifications are used. In relation to the latter, this paper discusses recent regime classifications and proposes a new exchange rate classification that perm...

  6. Air-water oxygen exchange in a large whitewater river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Robert O.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Rosi-Marshall, Emma J.

    2012-01-01

    Air-water gas exchange governs fluxes of gas into and out of aquatic ecosystems. Knowing this flux is necessary to calculate gas budgets (i.e., O2) to estimate whole-ecosystem metabolism and basin-scale carbon budgets. Empirical data on rates of gas exchange for streams, estuaries, and oceans are readily available. However, there are few data from large rivers and no data from whitewater rapids. We measured gas transfer velocity in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon, as decline in O2 saturation deficit, 7 times in a 28-km segment spanning 7 rapids. The O2 saturation deficit exists because of hypolimnetic discharge from Glen Canyon Dam, located 25 km upriver from Lees Ferry. Gas transfer velocity (k600) increased with slope of the immediate reach. k600 was -1 in flat reaches, while k600 for the steepest rapid ranged 3600-7700 cm h-1, an extremely high value of k600. Using the rate of gas exchange per unit length of water surface elevation (Kdrop, m-1), segment-integrated k600 varied between 74 and 101 cm h-1. Using Kdrop we scaled k600 to the remainder of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. At the scale corresponding to the segment length where 80% of the O2 exchanged with the atmosphere (mean length = 26.1 km), k600 varied 4.5-fold between 56 and 272 cm h-1 with a mean of 113 cm h-1. Gas transfer velocity for the Colorado River was higher than those from other aquatic ecosystems because of large rapids. Our approach of scaling k600 based on Kdrop allows comparing gas transfer velocity across rivers with spatially heterogeneous morphology.

  7. Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Md. Lutfur Rahman; Jashim Uddin

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we have investigated the interactions between stock prices and exchange rates in the emerging economy of Bangladesh. We have considered monthly nominal exchange rates of US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling and monthly values of Dhaka Stock Exchange General Index for period of June 2003 to March 2008 to conduct the study. Empirical result shows that exchange rates and stock prices data series are non stationary and integrated of order one. Then we have applied Johansen ...

  8. Neural Network Based Forecasting of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    S. Kumar Chandar; Sumathi, Dr. M.; Dr S. N. Sivanandam

    2014-01-01

    The foreign currency exchange market is the highest and most liquid of the financial markets, with an estimated $1 trillion traded every day. Foreign exchange rates are the most important economic indices in the international financial markets. The prediction of them poses many theoretical and experimental challenges. This paper reports empirical proof that a neural network model is applicable to the prediction of foreign exchange rates. The exchange rates between Indian Rupee and four other...

  9. Exchange Rate Regime Analysis Using Structural Change Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Zeileis, Achim; Shah, Ajay; Patnaik, Ila

    2007-01-01

    Regression models for de facto currency regime classification are complemented by inferential techniques for tracking the stability of exchange rate regimes. Several structural change methods are adapted to these regressions: tools for assessing the stability of exchange rate regressions in historical data (testing), in incoming data (monitoring) and for determining the breakpoints of shifts in the exchange rate regime (dating). The tools are illustrated by investigating the Chinese exchange ...

  10. Energy Recovery with Air-to-air Membrane Energy Exchanger for Ventilation in Cold Climates

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Peng

    2016-01-01

    Air-to-air membrane energy exchangers (MEEs) are attracting increasing attention as one of the most important novel trends in heat and energy recovery exchangers for heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. In MEEs, simultaneous heat and moisture transfer through the selectively permeable membrane reduces the energy consumed for heating, cooling, dehumidifying or humidifying the ventilation air. In cold climates, the moisture transfer from the warm and humid...

  11. The response of the Johannesburg stock exchange to changes in exchange rate regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Paul-Francois Muzindutsi

    2013-01-01

    This paper used Granger Causality test and descriptive statistics analysis to examine the response of the South African stock market to different exchange rate regimes from 1978 to 2008. The analysis of the history of the exchange rate regimes in South Africa showed that the flexibility was introduced in 1979 but the exchange rate shocks of great magnitude appeared during the period of the free-floating exchange rate system (1995-2008). Results reported in this paper revealed that the respons...

  12. Modelling heat and mass transfer in a membrane-based air-to-air enthalpy exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugaria, S.; Moro, L.; Del, D., Col

    2015-11-01

    The diffusion of total energy recovery systems could lead to a significant reduction in the energy demand for building air-conditioning. With these devices, sensible heat and humidity can be recovered in winter from the exhaust airstream, while, in summer, the incoming air stream can be cooled and dehumidified by transferring the excess heat and moisture to the exhaust air stream. Membrane based enthalpy exchangers are composed by different channels separated by semi-permeable membranes. The membrane allows moisture transfer under vapour pressure difference, or water concentration difference, between the two sides and, at the same time, it is ideally impermeable to air and other contaminants present in exhaust air. Heat transfer between the airstreams occurs through the membrane due to the temperature gradient. The aim of this work is to develop a detailed model of the coupled heat and mass transfer mechanisms through the membrane between the two airstreams. After a review of the most relevant models published in the scientific literature, the governing equations are presented and some simplifying assumptions are analysed and discussed. As a result, a steady-state, two-dimensional finite difference numerical model is setup. The developed model is able to predict temperature and humidity evolution inside the channels. Sensible and latent heat transfer rate, as well as moisture transfer rate, are determined. A sensitive analysis is conducted in order to determine the more influential parameters on the thermal and vapour transfer.

  13. Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Lutfur Rahman

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we have investigated the interactions between stock prices and exchange rates in the emerging economy of Bangladesh. We have considered monthly nominal exchange rates of US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling and monthly values of Dhaka Stock Exchange General Index for period of June 2003 to March 2008 to conduct the study. Empirical result shows that exchange rates and stock prices data series are non stationary and integrated of order one. Then we have applied Johansen procedure to test for the possibility of a cointegrating relationship.  Result shows that there is no cointegrating relationship between stock prices and exchange rates. Finally Granger causality test shows that stock prices Granger cause exchange rates of US dollar and Japanese yen but there is no way causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates of euro and pound sterling.

  14. Exchange rate risks and their impact upon the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The expansion of international business in Slovakia brought not only the opening of markets and expansion of enterprise possibilities but also an increase in the competition and new risks. One of such risks is also the exchange rate risk. The business that realizes a financial transaction exceeding borders of the state or derives his buying or selling prices in Slovak crowns from the foreign currency, is subjected to the exchange rate risks. The exchange rate risks are caused by volatility of exchange courses of Slovak crowns related to foreign currencies. The progress of exchange rates can considerably influence a real result of a transaction negatively; therefore it is important for enterprises to identify possible risks resulting from changes in exchange rates, so they could react accordingly. The proposed article is aimed at the explanation of basic techniques of minimizing exchange rate risks with the use of financial tools available on the financial market. (authors)

  15. Reassessing exchange rate overshooting in a monetary framework

    OpenAIRE

    Soumya Suvra Bhadury; Taniya Ghosh

    2015-01-01

    Money overtime has been deemphasized from most of the macroeconometric models of exchange rate making interest rate 'alone' the monetary policy instrument. One such model is Bjornland's (1999) Journal of International Economics and Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all. The model sets out to establish the empirical validity of Dornbusch exchange rate overshooting hypothesis for four small open economies. It does so though not with exact precision. When ...

  16. Exchange Rate Volatility and Bank Performance in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the impact of unstable exchange rate on bank performance in Nigeria using two proxies for bank performance, namely loan loss to total advances ratio and capital deposit ratio. Government expenditure, interest rate, real gross domestic product were added to exchange rate as independent variables. The two models specified show that the impact of exchange rate on bank performance is sensitive to the type of proxy used for bank performance. Loan loss to total advance ratio...

  17. Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates.

    OpenAIRE

    Lastrapes, William D

    1992-01-01

    This paper attempts to distinguish empirically real versus nominal sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates. The distinction is obtained by imposing the following restriction on the bivariate vector autoregression of real and nominal exchange rates over the current flexible rate period: nominal shocks are required to have no permanent effect on the level of the real exchange rate. Given this identification scheme, the author analyzes the dynamic effects and relative importan...

  18. Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Evidence from developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Hoffmann, Mathias

    2005-01-01

    This paper investigates the formalisation that in a small open economy flexible exchange rates act as a 'shock absorber' and mitigate the effects of external shocks more effectively. An intertemporal small open economy model with nominal rigidities, in which real shocks generate internal imbalances under fixed and flexible exchange rates, is laid out. The role of world interest rate and world output shocks in driving output, trade imbalances and real exchange rate fluctuations is investigated...

  19. Determinants of the Hungarian forint/ US dollar exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Hsing, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Applying the EGARCH model and using demand and supply analysis, this paper finds that the HUF/USD exchange rate (units of the Hungarian forint per U.S. dollar) is positively associated with the U.S. Treasury bill rate, U.S. real GDP, the U.S. stock index, the Hungarian inflation rate and the expected exchange rate and negatively influenced by the Hungarian Treasury bill rate, Hungarian real GDP, the Hungarian stock index, and the U.S. inflation rate. The HUF/USD exchange rate h...

  20. Exchange Rate Risk : From a Portfolio Investors Point of View

    OpenAIRE

    Stålstedt, Erik

    2006-01-01

    Due to globalization investors have increasing opportunities to invest on international markets for diversification purposes. This thesis illustrates the added risks of investing internationally due to volatile exchange rates. The purpose is to analyze how a volatile exchange rate affect the risk and return of a portfolio invested in Sweden, when the investor is located in Japan, United Kingdom or the USA. To analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility the focus is on a portfolio consistin...

  1. Productive Government Spending, Welfare and Exchange Rate Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Juha Tervala

    2008-01-01

    This study analyses the consequences of productive government spending on the international transmission of fiscal policy. A standard result in the new open economy macroeconomics literature is that a fiscal shock depreciates the exchange rate. I demonstrate that the response of the exchange rate depends on the productivity of government spending. If productivity is sufficiently high, a fiscal shock appreciates the exchange rate. It is also shown that the introduction of productive government...

  2. Behavior of Exchange Rate Volatility: Once Again in Action

    OpenAIRE

    Khuram Shafi; Liu Hua; Amna Nazeer; Zahra Idrees

    2015-01-01

    In the area of international trade few studies have examined whether fluctuation in exchange rate is base on macro variables that are used in this study. Basically the study is conducted in Pakistan. As it has been noticed that there is continuously increasing in exchange rate since last 20 years. This paper investigate that foreign direct investment, inflation and supply of money have strong relationship with exchange rate. This means that if there is increase in foreign direct investment th...

  3. Determination of Wages and Exchange Rate with Game Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Varahrami, Vida

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. In every country, wages are determined by Nash rule or governments determine wages. According to Nash equilibrium, policy of determination wages is respect to exchange rate and there is a game between NWC and MAS. In this paper, we survey a game theory method to survey policy of determination wages and exchange rate to stability economics. When exchange rate increases, import good's price rise and we have cost push inflation, therefore wages are increased and then we have unemployme...

  4. Real Exchange Rate Variation and Export Revenue: Asian Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Wen-Shwo Fang; Tsang-Yao Chang; YiHao Lai

    2007-01-01

    Exchange rate movements affect exports through depreciation (appreciation) and risk. Depreciation may raise exports but exchange rate risk could offset the positive effect. This paper investigates the net effect for eight Asian countries using a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time-varying correlation and exchange rate risk. Depreciation and export revenue are positively related, as expected, for eight countries, but its contribution to ex...

  5. Real Output and Prices Adjustments under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Rajmund MIRDALA

    2013-01-01

    Exchange rate regimes evolution in the European transition economies refers to one of the most crucial policy decision in the beginning of the 1990s employed during the initial stages of the transition process. During the period of last two decades we may identify some crucial milestones in the exchange rate regimes evolution in the European transition economies. due to existing diversity in exchange rate arrangements in the European transition economies in the pre-ERM2 period there seems to ...

  6. Purchasing Power Parity and Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Mohapatra, Sarita; Biswas, Basudeb

    1997-01-01

    The literature on the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory reports that all versions of the PPP theory do badly in explaining exchange rate movements in terms of changes in national price levels. If purchasing power parity holds true, the real exchange rate remains constant over time. The negative empirical results point to the failure of PPP. This paper contends that if the equilibrium real exchange rate has shifted over time due to real shocks, then what is interpreted as the failure of the...

  7. Exchange Rate Undervaluation to Foster Manufactured Exports: A Deliberate Strategy?

    OpenAIRE

    Plane, Patrick; Nouira, Ridha; Sekkat, K.

    2011-01-01

    Recent literature suggests that a proactive strategy consisting of deliberate real exchange rate depreciation can promote exports diversification and growth. This paper is built on these recent developments and investigates whether four developing countries have adopted such a strategy. Data from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia are used to construct and compare the macroeconomic Real Effective exchange rate (REER), similar exchange rates at the sector level (SREER) and the macroeconomic Eq...

  8. Implicit Bands in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Ledesma-Rodríguez, Francisco; Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel; Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge; Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon

    2006-01-01

    Abstract This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the Yen/Dollar exchange rate. To that end, we apply a sequential procedure that considers both the dynamics of exchange rates and central bank interventions to data covering the period from 1971 to 2003. Our results suggest that implicit bands existed in two subperiods: April-December 1980 and March-October 1987, the latter coinciding with the Louvre Accord. Furthermore, the study of the credibility of such...

  9. Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Lucio Sarno; Taylor, Mark P

    2002-01-01

    We assess the progress made by the profession in understanding real exchange rate behavior through a selective and critical, but nonetheless expository, review of the literature. Our reading of the literature leads us to the main conclusions that purchasing power parity might be viewed as a valid long-run international parity condition when applied to bilateral exchange rates obtaining among major industrialized countries, and that mean reversion in real exchange rates displays significant no...

  10. Air-sea interactions and exchanges

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.

    and geographical variability. The seasonal contrasts in pCO sub(2) and in the air-sea flux are best marked in coastal waters, but large seasonality in the open ocean is also observed in the Southern Indian Ocean. The Arabian Sea appears to account for at least one...

  11. Exchange rate reform:progress,challenges and prospects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈东琪; 张岸元; 王元

    2009-01-01

    For three decades China has followed an incremental approach in renminbi exchange rate reform.During this period,the exchange rate system has gone through five stages of evolution:i) a"basket peg"exchange rate regime;ii) a dual-track system;Hi) exchange rate convergence;iv) a"unitary pegged"exchange rate regime;and v) a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. Reforming the exchange rate formation mechanism is a complex engineering project influenced by numerous factors such as the economic development mode,industrial structure,basic economic system,market system condition,financial and macroeconomic policy system as well as the new advantages arising from opening-up initiatives.Since 2005,China has achieved substantial success in reforming the exchange rate formation mechanism but still faces a plethora of issues.To address these issues,China should strengthen the role of the market in the exchange rate formation process and gradually push for the free convertibility of the renminbi under the capital account.Amidst the raging global financial crisis,China should further adapt to the diversification of the international monetary system and aggressively proceed with renminbi regionalization and internationalization.

  12. The Impact of Air Exchange Effectiveness on Thermal Comfort in an Air-Conditioned Office

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roonak Daghigh

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Impact of air exchange effectiveness on thermal comfort has not been investigated and, therefore, not well understood .Therefore, the influence of air exchange effectiveness on thermal comfort is investigated in this study. Approach: The main objective of this research is to investigate the thermal comfort level of an air-conditioned office room under 14 windows-door opening arrangements as a function of maximum, minimum and mean Air Exchange Effectiveness (AEE, as has not been inquired into already. The tracer gas decay method has been applied during the experimental procedures to estimate air exchange effectiveness, on the basis of room average and local mean age of air. Simultaneously, thermal comfort variables were measured and through these data, the thermal comforts Fanger's indices (PMV and PPD were calculated. Staff answered a survey on their sensation of the indoor climate. Results: Results of 60 survey responses to thermal comfort questions in office and indoor air quality are presented. This study has shown that there are relationship between AEE and thermal comfort and three linear regression equations of PMV versus AEE can be derived for this air-conditioned office. Conclusion: Studies on the effect of air exchange effectiveness on thermal comfort in an office have shown that Thermal comfort is influenced by AEE, which go beyond the six factors which have been taken into account in PMV modeling.

  13. The Transmission of Disturbances under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimeswith Optimal Indexing

    OpenAIRE

    Flood, Robert P.; Nancy Peregrim Marion

    1980-01-01

    The paper develops a general stochastic macroeconomic model which can be used to study the international transmission of disturbances under alternative exchange-rate systems. Four types of exchange-rate systems are considered: uniform flexible exchange rates, uniform fixed exchange rates, two-tier exchange rates in which the current-account exchange rate is fixed and the capital-account exchange rate is flexible, and two-tier exchange rates with separate, floating rates for current and capita...

  14. The difficulties of the Chinese and Indian exchange rate regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ila Patnaik

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available China and India have both sought control over the exchange rate in order to maintain export competitiveness, manage current account balance, and pursue independent monetary policy. In this paper, we examine structural change in the Chinese and Indian de facto exchange rate regimes, focusing on the period from 1998 to 2007. With increasing capital account openness, exchange rate inflexibility has been associated with significant monetary policy distortions. In both countries, the short-term rate expressed in real terms dropped, and achieved very low values, in the unprecedented business cycle expansion of the early 2000s. In the Indian case, difficulties of sterilisation led to a modification of the exchange rate regime, moving towards greater flexibility. In China, in contrast, the exchange rate regime did not change.

  15. Technology Candidates for Air-to-Air and Air-to-Ground Data Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Brian D.

    2015-01-01

    Technology Candidates for Air-to-Air and Air-to-Ground Data Exchange is a two-year research effort to visualize the U. S. aviation industry at a point 50 years in the future, and to define potential communication solutions to meet those future data exchange needs. The research team, led by XCELAR, was tasked with identifying future National Airspace System (NAS) scenarios, determining requirements and functions (including gaps), investigating technical and business issues for air, ground, & air-to-ground interactions, and reporting on the results. The project was conducted under technical direction from NASA and in collaboration with XCELAR's partner, National Institute of Aerospace, and NASA technical representatives. Parallel efforts were initiated to define the information exchange functional needs of the future NAS, and specific communication link technologies to potentially serve those needs. Those efforts converged with the mapping of each identified future NAS function to potential enabling communication solutions; those solutions were then compared with, and ranked relative to, each other on a technical basis in a structured analysis process. The technical solutions emerging from that process were then assessed from a business case perspective to determine their viability from a real-world adoption and deployment standpoint. The results of that analysis produced a proposed set of future solutions and most promising candidate technologies. Gap analyses were conducted at two points in the process, the first examining technical factors, and the second as part of the business case analysis. In each case, no gaps or unmet needs were identified in applying the solutions evaluated to the requirements identified. The future communication solutions identified in the research comprise both specific link technologies and two enabling technologies that apply to most or all specific links. As a result, the research resulted in a new analysis approach, viewing the

  16. Exchange rate and monetary fundamentals: Long run relationship revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Bhanja Niyati; Dar Arif Billah; Tiwari Aviral Kumar

    2015-01-01

    This study re-examines the long run validity of the monetary approach to exchange rate determination for India. In particular, the long run association of bilateral nominal exchange rate of Indian rupee vis-à-vis USD, Pound-sterling, Yen and Euro against the corresponding monetary fundamentals that the model underlines has been tested using Johansen-Juselius maximum likelihood framework and Gregory-Hansen co-integration approach. Irrespective of the exchang...

  17. The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives

    OpenAIRE

    Dornbusch, Rudiger; Frankel, Jeffrey

    1988-01-01

    We review ten aspects of how floating exchange rates have worked in practice, contrasted with ten characteristics that the system was supposed to have in theory. We conclude that the foreign exchange market is characterized by high transactions-volume, short-term horizons, and an absence of stabilizing speculation. As a result, the exchange rate at times strays from the equilibrium level dictated by fundamentals, contrary to theory. We then look at ten proposed alternatives to the current sys...

  18. The Relationship between Exchange Rate-Interest Rate and Stock Return in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mehmet ŞENTÜRK; Dücan, Engin

    2014-01-01

    In this study, interest rate and exchange rate dynamics and their impact on stock returns were examined in Turkey between the periods of 1997:01-2013:05 with ADF, PP and KPSS unit root tests, impulse-response and variance decomposition analysis build upon VAR model and Granger causality analysis. Accordingly, exchange rate and interest rates affect stock returns are negative for about three months. Here, interest rate on stock returns, rather than the exchange rate is effective. In other word...

  19. Restarted Exchange Rate Reform Raises New Doubts on RMB Appreciation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xueqing

    2010-01-01

    @@ The de-pegging of RMB exchange rate from the US dol-lar does not lead to a substantial change in the exchange rate in the short term. Considering the future regime, if the European financial crisis was not lessened, the Euro and other major currencies would continue to devalue against the U.S dollar and the RMB would probably follow suit.

  20. Exchange rate profiteering and cost-effectiveness of physics journals.

    OpenAIRE

    Roth, Dana L.

    2003-01-01

    Data and commentary is presented for: Exchange rate US$ subscription prices 1997-1999; Comparison of actual US$ & (exchange rate US$ subscription prices); Decreasing percentage of commercially published articles by Caltech Authors(1997-2002); Cost and impact data for solid state, nuclear and particle physics articles(2001); and 2001 Cost-Effectiveness data for solid state, nuclear and particle physics journals.

  1. The Exchange Rate Exposure of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    A shortcut to measuring exchange rate exposure at the company level can be to exploit the information content in the stock prices. A regression analysis is conducted for the main Danish non-financial companies. The use of one all-comprising exchange rate indicator fails to address the complexity of...... GARCH(1,1) regression analysis is shown to further improve the detection of exposures. The success in identifying exposures for Danish non-financial companies is in contrast to earlier US studies and is relevant in a European context....... the extra-market exchange rate exposure of individual companies. As such, only a minority of companies has significant exposures when using the effective Danish exchange rate in an OLS regression analysis while half of the companies have significant exposures when using five main exchange rates. A...

  2. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniquesto compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jumpcomponents, and measures based on prices of ex...... impliedvolatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump componentof future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and thatoption implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component....... exchange rate futures options, allowingcalculation of option implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationallyefficient but biased forecast of future realized exchange rate volatility. Furthermore,we show that log-normality is an even better distributional approximation for...

  3. The impact of exchange rate volatility on emerging market exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Khosa

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: High exchange rate volatility has implications for business and policy decisions and exchange rate movements are important in debates around trade and trade policies. Research purpose: The purpose of the research was to determine the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in emerging markets. Motivation for the study: A lack of clarity in literature regarding this relationship increases the risk of improper planning by export organisations as well as implementing suboptimal economic policies. Research design, approach and method: This research analysed the effect of exchange rate volatility on emerging market exports using a sample of nine emerging countries from 1995 to 2010. Panel data analysis was conducted. Volatility was measured by Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity and conventional standard deviation in order to determine if the instrument of volatility used influenced the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports. The Pedroni residual cointegration method was used to test for panel cointegration in order to determine if there was a long-run relationship. Main findings: The results showed that exchange rate volatility had a significant negative effect on the performance of exports, regardless of the measure of volatility used. It was also evident that a long-run relationship did exist. Practical/managerial implications: The study concluded that the policy mix that will reduce exchange rate volatility (such as managed exchange rate regimes and relatively competitive exchange rates were essential for emerging markets in order to sustain their exports performance. Contribution/value-add: This research provided policy makers of emerging market economies with new evidence pertaining to the relationship between exchange rate volatility and the performance of exports. This research contributed to the existing knowledge on the topic and provides a base for future

  4. SOCIAL EXCHANGE RATES, MERCOSUR AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira, Leo da Rocha

    2003-01-01

    The path towards a common market requires an alignment of macroeconomic policies. In the case of the MERCOSUL member countries, the observed disparities in the exchange, tax and monetary policies constitute major imbalances and impede future international economic integration. Apart from residual differences on trade policies among the member countries, macroeconomic policy disparities also reflect populism and the resulting lack of political will and mutual commitment with the regional goals...

  5. What Determines the Nominal Exchange Rate? Some Cross Sectional Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Lane

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, the determination of long-run movements in nominal exchange rates across countries are examined. The author models the long-run movement in the nominal exchange rate as depending on (1) the long-run inflation differential and (2) the long-run change in the real exchange rate. He argues that the former depends on country characteristics such as openness, country size, the level of outstanding government debt, and central bank independence, and the latter on the rate of economic ...

  6. Air Circulation and Heat Exchange Under Reduced Pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rygalov, V.; Wheeler, R.; Dixon, M.; Fowler, P.; Hillhouse, L.

    2010-01-01

    Heat exchange rates decrease non-linearly with reductions in atmospheric pressure. This decrease creates risk of thermal stress (elevated leaf temperatures) for plants under reduced pressures. Forced convection (fans) significantly increases heat exchange rate under almost all pressures except below 10 kPa. Plant cultivation techniques under reduced pressures will require forced convection. The cooling curve technique is a reliable means of assessing the influence of environmental variables like pressure and gravity on gas exchange of plant. These results represent the extremes of gas exchange conditions for simple systems under variable pressures. In reality, dense plant canopies will exhibit responses in between these extremes. More research is needed to understand the dependence of forced convection on atmospheric pressure. The overall thermal balance model should include latent and radiative exchange components.

  7. Essays on Unemployment and Real Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Lindblad, Hans

    2010-01-01

    In the first essay, Persistence in Swedish Unemployment Rates, we study if there is no or weak tendency in unemployment rates to revert back to previous levels. Persistence is caused by: natural rate shocks, long unemployment cycles, and spill-over from cyclical to permanent unemployment. We find evidence of high persistence. The results suggest that the quick rise of unemployment rates during 1992-1994 was caused by large permanent and cyclical shocks in combination with spill-over effects. ...

  8. Investigation of heat exchanger inclination in forced-draught air-cooled heat exchangers

    OpenAIRE

    Kennedy, I.J.; Spence, S.W.T.; Spratt, G.R.; Early, J. M.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the influence of inclining the heat exchanger relative to the fan in a forced draught air-cooled heat exchanger. Since inclination increases plenum depth, the effect of inclination is also compared with increasing plenum depth without inclination. The experimental study shows that inclination improves thermal performance by only 0.5%, when compared with a baseline non-inclined case with a shallow plenum. Similarly, increasing plenum depth without incl...

  9. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39. ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  10. Tolerance Levels of Roadside Trees to Air Pollutants Based on Relative Growth Rate and Air Pollution Tolerance Index

    OpenAIRE

    SULISTIJORINI; ZAINAL ALIM MAS’UD; NIZAR NASRULLAH; AHMAD BEY; SOEKISMAN TJITROSEMITO

    2008-01-01

    Motor vehicles release carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and particulate matters to the air as pollutants. Vegetation can absorb these pollutants through gas exchange processes. The objective of this study was to examine the combination of the relative growth rate (RGR) and physiological responses in determining tolerance levels of plant species to air pollutants. Physiological responses were calculated as air pollution tolerance index (APTI). Eight roadside tree species wer...

  11. Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastian Edwards

    2015-01-01

    I analyze whether countries with flexible exchange rates are able to pursue an independent monetary policy, as suggested by traditional theory. I use data for three Latin American countries with flexible exchange rates, inflation targeting, and capital mobility – Chile, Colombia and Mexico – to investigate the extent to which Federal Reserve actions are translated into local central banks’ policy rates. The results indicate that there is significant “policy contagion,” and that these countrie...

  12. Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market

    OpenAIRE

    Dallas S. Batten; Daniel L. Thornton

    1983-01-01

    Changes in the discount rate can have an associated announcement effect on the foreign exchange value of the dollar only if these changes are not anticipated by the market. This paper provides evidence to support this contention. Specifically, discount rate changes made for reasons other than technical adjustments have not been anticipated fully and consequently, their announcement has had a significant impact on the dollar's exchange rate. Furthermore, results are obtained that support the h...

  13. Exchange rate formation in Ukraine and its impact on macroeconomic indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koroliuk Tatiana Aleksandrovna

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The factors of exchange rate formation in Ukraine are analyzes in this paper, the influence of exchange rate on macroeconomic indicators of development and the main priorities of the exchange rate policy are determined exchange.

  14. Survey evidence on the exchange rate exposure of Hungarian SMEs

    OpenAIRE

    Katalin Bodnár

    2006-01-01

    During the past year, a survey was conducted among Hungarian small and medium enterprises. The results of the survey suggest that a significant ratio of companies is directly exposed to fluctuations in the exchange rate, which may affect their profitability to a large degree. The majority of surveyed companies, however, are not prepared for the potential effects of such fluctuations and do not use foreign exchange risk management tools. Indebtedness in foreign exchange could serve as the hedg...

  15. Exchange Rate Instability and Trade. The Case of Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    M. Ali Kemal

    2005-01-01

    The variations in exchange rate play a vital role in the determination of trade balance. Volatile exchange rate shatters the investor’s and trader’s confidence, and slows down the process of trade, which results in slower growth. In this paper, other market instabilities—such as GDP growth instability in imports equation and agriculture and manufacturing instability in exports equation—have been used with exchange rate instability, and GARCH variance is used to measure it. It is found that th...

  16. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    prices and if the latter are exogenous to the exchange rate dynamics. In our view, however, commodity prices are essentially financial asset prices that are set in a forward-looking way, exactly like exchange rates. If both the exchange rate and the commodity prices are based on discounted future...... expectations, one should mostly observe contemporaneous correlations, not one-directional cross-predictability from one variable toward the other. Using three different data sets and various econometric techniques, we do find the contemporaneous correlations as predicted by the financial asset view of...

  17. Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Jordanian International Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rania Abedllah Almohaisen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This study tries to investigate the Exchange Rate volatility effects on Jordanian International Trade for the period (1997Q1-2013Q2. The variables include Real Exchange Rate (RER volatility on Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP, Exports (EX and Imports (IMP. In order to estimate volatility, this study used the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH model proposed by Engle (1982 and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH model proposed by Bollerslev (1986. The results show that there is negative effects of real exchange rate volatility on imports and exports of Jordanian economy and a positive effect on real GDP.

  18. Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, John A.; Dahl, Christian Møller; Osler, Carol L.

    Recent research has revealed a wealth of information about the microeconomics of currency markets and thus the determination of exchange rates at short horizons. This information is valuable to us as scientists since, like evidence of macroeconomic regularities, it can provide critical guidance for...... designing exchange-rate models. This paper presents an optimizing model of short-run exchange-rate dynamics consistent with both the micro evidence and the macro evidence, the first such model of which we are aware. With respect to microeconomics, the model is consistent with the institutional structure of...

  19. Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In heterodox literature, the industrial sector is considered strategic for economic development. Consequently, reducing the contribution of this sector in the production of the country before it has reached the stage of economic maturity, affects the productive dynamics and slow technical progress. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is seen as one of the factors responsible for the reduction of the external competitiveness of Brazilian manufactures, and this exchange rate valuation may be occurring due to the differences between domestic and international interest rates. Given this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy and in the composition of the total exports on the performance of the Brazilian economy using a structuralist model. The results reinforce the importance of the manufacturing sector to economic growth, especially in a competitive exchange rate environment.

  20. Modelling the Real Exchange Rate: A new Sequential Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Slim Chaouachi; Zied Ftiti; Frédèric Teulon

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this work is to propose a new sequential strategy-three steps testing procedure- based on recently introduced econometric techniques, in order to assess the meanreverting properties of the real exchange rate and to check whether real exchange r

  1. Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long-Run

    OpenAIRE

    Beckmann, Joscha; Belke, Ansgar; Kühl, Michael

    2013-01-01

    This paper tries to clarify the question of whether foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan are important for the Dollar-Yen exchange rate in the long-run. Our strategy relies on a re-examination of the empirical performance of a monetary exchange rate model. This is basically not a new topic; however, we put our focus on two new questions. Firstly, does the consideration of periods of massive interventions in the foreign exchange market help to uncover a potentia...

  2. Exchange rate and monetary fundamentals: Long run relationship revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhanja Niyati

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study re-examines the long run validity of the monetary approach to exchange rate determination for India. In particular, the long run association of bilateral nominal exchange rate of Indian rupee vis-à-vis USD, Pound-sterling, Yen and Euro against the corresponding monetary fundamentals that the model underlines has been tested using Johansen-Juselius maximum likelihood framework and Gregory-Hansen co-integration approach. Irrespective of the exchange rates the study finds a co-integrating relationship among the variables using Johansen-Juselius maximum likelihood approach. The Gregory-Hansen co-integration method allows for one break determined endogenously in three specifications also confirms the long run relationship. Our results, hence, suggest that the monetary model is a valid theory of long run equilibrium condition for the rupee-dollar, rupee-pound, rupee-yen and rupee-euro exchange rates.

  3. MONETARY SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CEE COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Erjavec

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of the exchange rate regime in absorbing macroeconomic shocks for a group of Central and East European countries (CEE. Whether the flexible exchange rate regime is beneficial for an economy depends on the capacity of the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. An appropriate framework for assessing the role of the exchange rate is a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR model. Impact of two types of macroeconomic shocks is estimated: nominal and real. The shocks are identified on the basis of Blanchard-Quah long run identification scheme which means that the restrictions are imposed on the long run responses while the short run dynamics is kept unrestricted. The importance of nominal and real shocks is assessed using the variance decomposition and the impulse response functions.

  4. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2014

    OpenAIRE

    Cline, William R.

    2014-01-01

    This semiannual review finds that most of the major international currencies, including the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, UK pound sterling, and Chinese renminbi, remain close to their fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). The new estimates find this result despite numerous significant exchange rate movements associated with increased volatility in international financial markets at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2014, and despite a major reduction in the price of oil. The ...

  5. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate. PMID:26222702

  6. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    Full Text Available Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  7. Emission Trading in Europe with an Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Klaassen, G.; Forsund, F.R.; M. Amann

    1994-01-01

    This paper explores the analytical and empirical properties of a new method for emission trading according to a fixed exchange rate. The exchange rate is based on the ratios of the marginal costs of abatement in the optimal solution in order to account for the impact of the location of emission sources on the deposition. It is shown that, generally, this system will not achieve the optimal solution and does not guarantee that environmental deposition constraints are not violated, although...

  8. De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies

    OpenAIRE

    von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong

    2002-01-01

    This paper provides an empirical investigation on the discrepancies between official exchange rate regimes and de facto exchange rate policies in transition economies. Since official and de facto regime choices are not independent of each other, we adopt a bivariate probit model to describe the joint determination of the two regime choices. After finding the important determinants of both regime choices, we use a univariate probit model to describe the determination of regime discrepancies. W...

  9. Floating Exchange Rates in Peru, 1950-54

    OpenAIRE

    Lyons, Richard K.

    1991-01-01

    I test three potentially complementary models in an effort to capture the fundamentals that underlaid the market's determination of Peru's floating exchange rate through the period 1950-54: the first is an expectational purchasing power parity (PPP) model which maintains that asset market forces were driving the exchange rate to its perceived PPP level; the second is a flexible-price monetary model; and the third is a model along the lines described by Tsiang (1957) which emphasizes world pri...

  10. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: "Speculation" in Non-Financial Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Aabo, Tom

    2002-01-01

    "Speculation" in non-financial companies in relation to exchange rate exposure management constitutes one of the contributing factors behind corporate (or more widespread) crises. Deviations from benchmark positions constitute speculation. An empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds that the larger the company (ability) and the larger its relative sale on foreign markets (relevance), the more likely the company will be to benchmark its exchange rate exposures. However...

  11. Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation Targeting in Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    H., Hernando Vargas

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines Colombia's experience with an inflation-targeting monetary policy following the abandonment of exchange rate bands in 1999, and two episodes in 2003 and 2004 that deviated from this general behavior. In these episodes, the Central Bank intervened in the forex market on a relatively large scale in order to affect the trend of the exchange rate (managed floating). These episodes are examined to draw lessons and highlight the main challenges facing monetary and forex policy. ...

  12. Hot Tip: Nominal Exchange Rates and Inflation Indexed Bond Yields

    OpenAIRE

    Richard H. Clarida

    2013-01-01

    This paper derives a structural relationship between the nominal exchange rate, national price levels, and observed yields on long maturity inflation - indexed bonds. This relationship can be interpreted as defining the fair value of the exchange rate that will prevail in any model or real world economy in which inflation indexed bonds are traded. An advantage of our derivation is that it does not require restrictive assumptions on financial market equilibrium to be operational. We take our t...

  13. Exploring oil price – exchange rate nexus for Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad, Zahid; Suleiman, Hassan; Kouhy, Reza

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the oil price - exchange rate nexus for Nigeria during the period 2007-2010 using daily data. The generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models are employed to examine the impact of oil price changes on the nominal exchange rate .The outcome of this research indicates that a rise in oil prices leads to a depreciation of the Nigerian Naira vis-à-vis the US dollar over the study period.

  14. The Effect of Capital Controls on Exchange Rate Risk

    OpenAIRE

    VERSTEEG, Roald; Straetmans, Stefan

    2010-01-01

    Many countries try to smooth their exchange rate movements by means of capital controls or otherwise. By the use of statistical extreme value analysis, we investigate if capital controls succeed in lowering foreign exchange rate (forex) volatility. We define forex volatility as the risk of extreme depreciations. For a sample of developed and emerging markets we find that capital controls are not effective in reducing this extreme depreciation risk. On the contrary, extreme depreciation risk i...

  15. Monetary-policy with overshooting exchange-rates

    OpenAIRE

    J. Niehans

    1980-01-01

    The advent of floating exchange rates has meant that international monetary theory has been subject to continuous testing. Using Switzerland as the example of a small open economy (SOE), three issues are considered. First, long-ruri propositions such as purchasing power parity are examined and found to be broadly supported by the evidence. Secondly, the overshooting of exchange rates is analysed and it is concluded that, while consistent with rational behaviour of money holders, it may be a s...

  16. Exchange Rate Undervaluation and Manufactured Exports: A Deliberate Strategy?

    OpenAIRE

    Nouira, Ridha; Plane, Patrick; Sekkat, K.

    2011-01-01

    Recent literature suggests that a proactive exchange rate policy in accordance with price incentives (i.e. undervaluation) can foster manufactured exports and growth. This paper is built on these recent developments and investigates, using a sample of 52 developing countries, whether such a proactive exchange rate policy is adopted. The results show that during the period 1991-2005 a number of countries has used undervaluation to foster the price competitiveness of manufactured exports.

  17. Exchange rates and monetary policy uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Mueller, Philippe; Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza; Vedolin, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    We document that a trading strategy that is short the U.S. dollar and long other currencies exhibits significantly larger excess returns on days with scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We also show that these excess returns (i) are higher for currencies with higher interest rate differentials vis-à-vis the U.S.; (ii) increase with uncertainty about monetary policy; and (iii) intensify when the Federal Reserve adopts a policy of monetary easing. We interpret these ex...

  18. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. PMID:25741459

  19. Neural Network Based Forecasting of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kumar Chandar

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The foreign currency exchange market is the highest and most liquid of the financial markets, with an estimated $1 trillion traded every day. Foreign exchange rates are the most important economic indices in the international financial markets. The prediction of them poses many theoretical and experimental challenges. This paper reports empirical proof that a neural network model is applicable to the prediction of foreign exchange rates. The exchange rates between Indian Rupee and four other major currencies, Pound Sterling, US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen are forecast by the trained neural networks. The neural network was trained by three different learning algorithms using historical data to find the suitable algorithm for prediction. The forecasting performance of the proposed system is evaluated using three statistical metrics and compared. The results presented here demonstrate that significantly close prediction can be made without extensive knowledge of market data.

  20. Capital Controls, Two-tiered Exchange Rate Systems and the Exchange Rate Policy: The South African Experience

    OpenAIRE

    Schaling, E.

    2005-01-01

    South Africa's 40 years of experience with capital controls on residents and non-residents (1961-2001) reads like a collection of examples of perverse unanticipated effects of legislation and regulation.We show that the presence of capital controls on residents and non-residents, enabled the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to target domestic interest rates (and or the exchange rate) via interventions in the (commercial) foreign exchange market.This provides an early rationale for anchoring ...

  1. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    OpenAIRE

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-01-01

    Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action ...

  2. Econometric Analysis of Croatia’s Proclaimed Foreign Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mance Davor

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.

  3. Exchange Rate Instability and Sectoral Exports: Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Haseeb

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Exports of a country is one of the main factors indicating economic health of a country and fluctuating exchange rates and relative price can significantly affect the level of exports and it is an alarming situation for a country when its exports are affected by exchange rate volatility. Impact of exchange rate volatility and relative price on trade has been a heated debate in the field of finance and most of work has been done on aggregate and bilateral trade. Few researches are found on product basis especially in the scenario of Pakistan. This research will provide an overview of the exports of 13 different products from Pakistan. Secondary data is used to analyze the impact of exchange rate instability on the exports of different products from Pakistan to all over the world. Significance of the study depends on the right choice of estimation method. We use auto regressive distributive lags (ARDL method to check the relationship of two main variables. Glass, meat and paper & board products show that relative price affects negatively to exports so Government should make policies to strengthen the exports of these three products. Government can provide subsidies on these products in order to boost up the exports and make these products competitive in international market. Under the shadow of our results we conclude that exchange rate volatility has significant negative relationship with the exports of food processing machinery, grapes, meat and petroleum products so government needs to be focused on it when exchange rate are highly instable. Iron & steel bars show short run negative impact of exchange rate however this impact is adjusted in the long run.

  4. Real Exchange Rate in China: A Long-run Perspective

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Haihong Gao

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long-run viewpoint. Whether China's rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply-side model, the Balassa-Semuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia,Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy.Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China's industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH's prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant.

  5. Exchange-Driven Growth with Birth Rate Less Than Death

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Zhen-Quan; KE Jian-Hong; YE Gao-Xiang

    2005-01-01

    We further study the kinetic behavior of the exchange-driven growth with birth and death for the case of birth rate kernel being less than that of death based on the mean-field theory. The symmetric exchange rate kernel is K(k,j) = K'(k,j) = Ikjv, and the birth and death rates are proportional to the aggregate's size. The long time asymptotic behavior of the aggregate size distribution ak(t) is found to obey a much unusual scaling law with an exponentially growing scaling function φ(x) = exp(x).

  6. A Role Play on Export Decisions and the Exchange Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotterell, Ann

    1987-01-01

    Explains that the goal of this exercise is to encourage an understanding of the effects of exchange rate changes and the use of forward rates. Provides a role play that involves students working in groups to decide whether to export a consignment of golf trollies to Italy and shortbread to Canada. (BSR)

  7. Exchange Rate Market Sentiment Analysis of Major Global Currencies

    OpenAIRE

    K.S. Madhava Rao; Anjana Ramachandran

    2014-01-01

    The paper deals with the analysis of market sentiments in exchange rates which are of great interest to trading individuals and institutional investors. For example, an institutional investor or a trading individual makes better investments and minimizes losses when equipped with an understanding of market sentiments in weekly or monthly exchange returns. In the approach suggested here, a typical market sentiment is defined on the basis of the certain function of the mean ...

  8. Model misspecification, learning and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Vivien Lewis; Agnieszka Markiewicz

    2009-01-01

    Rational expectations models fail to explain the disconnect between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. In line with survey evidence on the behaviour of foreign exchange traders, we introduce model misspecification and learning into a standard monetary model. Agents use simple forecasting rules based on a restricted information set. They learn about the parameters and performance of different models and can switch between forecasting rules. We compute the implied post-Bretton Wo...

  9. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Carl Chiarella

    1991-01-01

    A nonlinear exchange rate model based on the famous Dornbusch (1976) overshhoting model is modified to allow for explicit consideration of the sources of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market along the lines suggested by Kouri (1983). Imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign assets and finite speed of adjustment are intorduced into the foreign exchnage market. Portfolio considerations dictate that the function describing the fraction of wealth domestic residents desi...

  10. The Nominal Exchange Rate Implication of VAT Harmonization in EEC

    OpenAIRE

    Dai, Meixing

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines, in a one-good two-country Cournot competition model, the implication of European VAT reform on the nominal exchange rate parities which will be pegged in the third stage of monetary union. As result of the reform, the deutchmark needs to be reevaluated so as to prevent generating systematic external disequilibrium of some other European countries, which is inconsistent with pegging nominal exchange parities of European currencies.

  11. The trade balance and the real exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Enisse Kharroubi

    2011-01-01

    Globalisation has affected the relationship between the trade balance and the real exchange rate in two ways. On the one hand, the growth of trade taking place within industries makes the trade balance more sensitive to real exchange movements. On the other hand, a higher degree of vertical specialisation and more global supply chains act to reduce this sensitivity. The relative importance of these two effects varies across countries. According to the estimates presented in this article, chan...

  12. Exchange Rate Movement and Foreign Direct Investment in Asean Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaratin Lily

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI are important for a country's economic development, but the world market for FDI has become more competitive. This paper empirically analyses the exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI relationship using annual data on ASEAN economies, that is, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. By employing ARDL bounds test approach, the empirical results show the existence of significant long-run cointegration between exchange rate and FDI for the case of Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines with all countries recording negative coefficient implying that the appreciation of Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and the Philippine peso has a positive impact on FDI inflows. Using the ECM based ARDL approach for causality test, both Singapore and the Philippines show long-run bidirectional causality between exchange rate and FDI whereas long-run unidirectional causality running from the exchange rate to FDI in Malaysia. Furthermore, this study also found that short-run unidirectional causality running from the exchange rate to FDI exists in Singapore.

  13. Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Private Investment in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.G. Omorokunwa

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the dynamic relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign private investment in Nigeria from 1980 to 2011. The rational for this study is the realization that a viable exchange rate regime that is stable and predictable presents rich vista for inflow of foreign investment. We employed the Error Correction Model (ECM after a battery of preliminary investigations which include the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF test for stationarity and the Engle and Granger two-step cointegration procedure. Our finding include among other things that; exchange rate volatility has a very weak effect on the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI to Nigeria, both in the long run and in the short run and that exchange rate volatility has a weak effect on foreign portfolio investment in the short run but a strong positive effect in the long run. Based on our findings, an array of recommendation were made, which include the need for policy makers to develop sound exchange rate management system in the country, inter alia.

  14. The new exchangers in refrigeration and air, conditioning applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marvillet, Ch. [CEA, 38 - Grenoble (France). GRETh

    1997-12-31

    The investigation carried out by the `heat exchangers` network has revealed a number of points which should be noted here at the beginning of this presentation. It has been observed that most of today`s products (fin and tube heat exchangers) are designed along traditional lines. However despite this `conservatism`, a lot of attention is found on the technical and innovative techniques used in other areas of the world (particularly in Japan). Moreover, some of these innovative techniques (micro fin tubes, louvered fins) tend to be more frequently applied than others, and their gradual introduction into products which are `made in the EEC` is to be expected. The purpose of this paper is to respond, at least partially, to the interest shown by the industries contacted. during this investigation in these new techniques. In the first chapter, an overview of the information available today on high performance thermal heat exchange surfaces will be given. Micro-fin tubes and louvered fins will be the two surfaces considered in the first part of this document. According to this investigation, the fin and tube heat exchanger remains the only product available today for evaporating and condensing refrigerant applications using air as the fluid to be treated. Other technological solutions exist, however; brazed fin and plate heat exchangers commonly used in applications where compactness is an essential quality will be examined in the second part of this document. Moreover, the use of fluids which will replace CFCS in the years to come, and the possible comeback of ammonia will certainly have consequences on the design of evaporators and condensers. In the third part of this document the effects of these changes on fin and tube heat exchangers will be evaluated, and the first published results of the use of substitution fluids will be discussed. (author) 16 refs.

  15. Extreme-value dependence: An application to exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Viviana

    2007-04-01

    Extreme value theory (EVT) focuses on modeling the tail behavior of a loss distribution using only extreme values rather than the whole data set. For a sample of 10 countries with dirty/free float regimes, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence. That is, whether an extremely large appreciation or depreciation in the nominal exchange rate of one country might transmit to another. In general, after controlling for volatility clustering and inertia in returns, we do not find evidence of extreme-value dependence between paired exchange rates. However, for asymptotic-independent paired returns, we find that tail dependency of exchange rates is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations.

  16. Productive Government Spending, Welfare and Exchange Rate Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juha Tervala

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the consequences of productive government spending on the international transmission of fiscal policy. A standard result in the new open economy macroeconomics literature is that a fiscal shock depreciates the exchange rate. I demonstrate that the response of the exchange rate depends on the productivity of government spending. If productivity is sufficiently high, a fiscal shock appreciates the exchange rate. It is also shown that the introduction of productive government spending increases both domestic and foreign welfare, when compared with the case where government spending is wasted. This is because productive government spending has a positive effect on private consumption in both countries in a two country NOEM model.

  17. EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Ghiba

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Considering the difficulties created by the economic crisis, many exporters have criticized the National Bank of Romania (NBR’s policy regarding the exchange rate evolution. They argue that depreciation is a necessary condition for recovery and not financial stability. On the contrary, Romania cannot afford a shock in the exchange rate level. The risk associated with such a measure is too high for an emerging country and it annihilates any export competitive advantages. Therefore, depreciation may delay the imperative of Romanian economic recovery. A solid economic recovery should have as starting point a financial system sound and stable. Excessive exchange rate depreciation jeopardizes the financial soundness of banks and the borrower’s ability to repay their loans. Therefore, it creates inflationary flare-ups, particularly dangerous for the economy of any state.

  18. Do reductions in black market exchange rate premia cause inflation?

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Larue; Jean-Philippe Gervais

    2001-01-01

    Unification of the black and official exchange rates and increasing the rate of crawl of the official rate are the competing prescriptions to reduce inefficiencies caused by the black market premia. Pinto (1991) showed that the removal of implicit export taxes could force governments to raise inflation to finance their budget deficit. Park (1995) and Morris (1995) demonstrated that unification need not raise the steady-state level of inflation. In this paper, we investigate the inflation-blac...

  19. Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Craig Burnside; Martin Eichenbaum; Sergio Rebelo

    1999-01-01

    Currency crises that coincide with banking crises tend to share four elements. First, governments provide guarantees to domestic and foreign bank creditors. Second, banks do not hedge their exchange rate risk. Third, there is a lending boom before the crises. Finally, when the currency/banking collapse occurs interest rates rise and there is a persistent decline in output. This paper proposes an explanation for these regularities. We show that government guarantees lower interest rates, and g...

  20. Government Spending and Real Exchange Rate Case of Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmira Cakrani

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Various studies have found that governmentspending can lead to overestimation orunderestimation of the real exchange rate, depending on the composition of theseexpenditures. The purpose of this paper is toassess the impact of government spendingon real exchange rate in Albania. In this paper is used a log liner model with quarterlydata. Other explanatory variables in this model are: foreign direct investment, remittances,real GDP per capita, openness. Variables are tested for unit root and cointegration. Theresults indicate that government spendingis associated with overvaluation of realexchange rate in Albania.JEL Classification: E62; F31Various studies have found that governmentspending can lead to overestimation orunderestimation of the real exchange rate, depending on the composition of theseexpenditures. The purpose of this paper is toassess the impact of government spendingon real exchange rate in Albania. In this paper is used a log liner model with quarterlydata. Other explanatory variables in this model are: foreign direct investment, remittances,real GDP per capita, openness. Variables are tested for unit root and cointegration. Theresults indicate that government spendingis associated with overvaluation of realexchange rate in Albania.JEL Classification: E62; F31

  1. Exchange Rate Exposure and its Determinants: Evidence on Hungarian Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Tomanová, Lucie

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyses the foreign exchange rate exposure of Hungarian firms and its determinants on the basis of corporate cash flows and stock prices. The analysis focuses on the HUF/EUR exchange rate using monthly data from 2000 – 2014, resp. 2003 – 2012 in case of cash flow analysis. Stock prices exposure analysis showed that significant number of these firms is exposed: 18.4 % of publicly listed companies were significantly exposed in period 2007 – 2014 which is significantly higher than in...

  2. The Global Implications of Regional Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Harris Dellas; George Tavlas

    2003-01-01

    We examine the implications of a regional fixed exchange rate regime for global exchange rate volatility. We find that the concept of the optimum currency area plays a key role. There are significant effects on the volatility of the remaining flexible parities when the countries participating in the regional peg ¡V the ¡§ins¡¨ ¡V are not an optimum currency area. Or, but to a smaller extent, when the ¡§ins¡¨ and the ¡§outs¡¨ are asymmetric with regard to labor market flexibility and monetary ...

  3. Diffusion equations and the time evolution of foreign exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate which type of diffusion equation is most appropriate to describe the time evolution of foreign exchange rates. We modify the geometric diffusion model assuming a non-exponential time evolution and the stochastic term is the sum of a Wiener noise and a jump process. We find the resulting diffusion equation to obey the Kramers–Moyal equation. Analytical solutions are obtained using the characteristic function formalism and compared with empirical data. The analysis focus on the first four central moments considering the returns of foreign exchange rate. It is shown that the proposed model offers a good improvement over the classical geometric diffusion model.

  4. Convergence, capital accumulation and the nominal exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Benczúr, Péter; Kónya, István

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a flexible price, two-sector nominal growth model, in order to study the role of the exchange rate regime in capital accumulation (convergence). We adopt a standard model of a small open economy with traded and nontraded goods, and enrich its structure with costly investment and a preference for real money holdings. We find that (i) the choice of exchange rate regime influences the transition dynamics of a small open economy, (ii) a one-sector model does not adequately cap...

  5. Sticky Prices, a Volatile Exchange Rate and the Border

    OpenAIRE

    Mark David Witte

    2005-01-01

    This paper introduces a method that leads to more accurate estimates of the proportion of the border effect attributable to the nominal price/nominal exchange rate relationship. Employing this method on data from “How Wide is the Border?” (1996), this paper finds that the proportion of the border effect directly attributable to a volatile exchange rate and incomplete pass-through varies from good to good. Some goods have a small proportion of their border effect caused by the nominal price/no...

  6. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  7. Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates, we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008. Our long-run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil-exchange rate relationship. Increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the USD against net oil exporter currencies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. On the other hand, the currencies of oil importers, such as Japan, depreciate relative to the USD when the real oil price goes up. (author)

  8. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: "Speculation" in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    "Speculation" in non-financial companies in relation to exchange rate exposure management constitutes one of the contributing factors behind corporate (or more widespread) crises. Deviations from benchmark positions constitute speculation. An empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds...... that the larger the company (ability) and the larger its relative sale on foreign markets (relevance), the more likely the company will be to benchmark its exchange rate exposures. However, at the same time the very same factors (size and foreign sale) lead to more extensive speculation. Financial...

  9. THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARYING EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandu Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The benefit of international trade is a more efficient employment of the productive forces of the world. (John Stuart Mill The exchange rate is a primary factor that influences economy. This instrument is used by some countries in order to improve the lack of balance caused as a result of the financial crisis felt in many countries considered by then infallible. The negative effects of the financial crisis can also be found in the decreased volume of commodities involved in international trade exchanges, as a consequence of modified prices and decreased offer. The globalizing trend leads to a constant expansion of exchanges between countries and to the consolidation of international cooperation. Except that economic interdependence generates an increased risk under the influence of economic, financial, monetary or political factors. The currency risk can generate either a gain or loss during foreign trade operations. The long period of RON depreciation made possible the entry of Romanian products on the international markets due to their prices. Sheltered by the gain generated by the evolution of the exchange rate, most of the exporters were not concerned by the increase of product competitiveness or by avoiding the currency risk. The fact that, for many years, the evolution of the exchange rate generated substantial losses for the exporters shows that risk coverage in Romania is, in most cases, a purely theoretical concept.

  10. An experimental study of the air-side particulate fouling in finned-tube heat exchangers of air conditioners through accelerated tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The air-side particulate fouling in the heat exchangers of HVAC applications degrades the performance of cooling capacity, pressure drop across a heat exchanger, and indoor air quality. Indoor and outdoor air contaminants foul heat exchangers. The purpose of this study is to investigate the fouling characteristics trough accelerated tests. The fouling characteristics are analyzed as functions of a dust concentration (1.28 and 3.84 g/m3), a face velocity (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m/s), and a surface condition. The cooling capacity in the slitted finned-tube heat exchangers at the face velocity of 1 m/s decreases about 2% and the pressure drop increases up to 57%. The rate of build-up of fouling is observed to be 3 times slower for this three-fold reduction of dust concentration whilst still approaching the same asymptotic level

  11. Foreign exchange rate entropy evolution during financial crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stosic, Darko; Stosic, Dusan; Ludermir, Teresa; de Oliveira, Wilson; Stosic, Tatijana

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the effects of financial crises on foreign exchange (FX) markets, where entropy evolution is measured for different exchange rates, using the time-dependent block entropy method. Empirical results suggest that financial crises are associated with significant increase of exchange rate entropy, reflecting instability in FX market dynamics. In accordance with phenomenological expectations, it is found that FX markets with large liquidity and large trading volume are more inert - they recover quicker from a crisis than markets with small liquidity and small trading volume. Moreover, our numerical analysis shows that periods of economic uncertainty are preceded by periods of low entropy values, which may serve as a tool for anticipating the onset of financial crises.

  12. Neural network analysis of varying trends in real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. Kaashoek (Johan); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper neural networks are fitted to the real exchange rates of seven industrialized countries. The size and topology of the used networks is found by reducing the size of the network through the use of multiple correlation coefficients, principal component analysis of residuals a

  13. Ion momentum and energy transfer rates for charge exchange collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horwitz, J.; Banks, P. M.

    1973-01-01

    The rates of momentum and energy transfer have been obtained for charge exchange collisions between ion and neutral gases having arbitrary Maxwellian temperatures and bulk transport velocities. The results are directly applicable to the F-region of the ionosphere where 0+ - 0 charge is the dominant mechanism affecting ion momentum and energy transfer.

  14. The limiting distribution of extremal exchange rate yields

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.A.B. Hols (Martien); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractSeveral nonnested fat-tailed distributions have been advocated for modelling exchange rate returns. Instead of directly estimating these nonnested distributions we investigate the extremal distribution of the returns. The advantage is that the parameter which characterizes the amount of

  15. The credibility of the European exchange rate mechanism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knot, K.H.W.; Sturm, J.E.; de Haan, J.

    1998-01-01

    Using a panel data approach and three different credibility measures, we argue that unemployment, inflation, and budget deficits in participating countries have affected the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS. In contrast to most previous research, which focuses upon the credibili

  16. Exchange rate determination : Is there a role for macroeconomic fundamentals?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de

    1997-01-01

    A review of recent literature shows that the application of co-integration techniques and the use of larger data sets have led to more empirical evidence in favour of both the Purchasing Power Parity and the monetary approach to exchange rate determination as long-run relationships. Forecasts based

  17. Exchange Rate Misalignment in Turkey: Overvalution of the Turkish Lira

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arif Orçun Söylemez

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In 2001, Modern Turkey experienced the most severe financial collapse in its history during the implementation of an anti-inflationary, fixed-exchange-rate-based stabilisation program. An important part of critisms following this collapse focused on the exchange rates. The main argument was that the program overlooked the fact that Turkish Lira was highly overvalued during the implementation of the stabilisation program. The currency of a country would be overvalued if its realized values against other currencies persistently stayed over the long-term equilibrium trend. Overvalution of a currency is an important matter for any country because the exchange rates are decisive on the external balance of a country, the stability of financial system, and the internal prices and hence on the allocation of resources. Plus, the two recent financial crises in Turkey, in 1994 and 2001, broke out after significant overvaluations in the Turkish Lira. This study found significant overvaluations in cumulative terms in the Turkish Lira for the period after 2001. Although, Turkey might have gained some resilience to exchange rate misalignments after 2001 due to political and economic changes in the country, the high level of overvaluation in the Turkish Lira should nevertheless be seen as a risk factor.

  18. Money and Exchange Rates in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg Model

    OpenAIRE

    Fernando Alvarez; Andrew Atkeson

    1996-01-01

    We examine the impact of monetary injections in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg Model and show that monetary shocks can lead to nominal exchange rates that are more volatile than inflation, money growth or interest rate differentials. Moreover, movements in real exchange rates following monetary injections can be persistent and nearly as large as movements in nominal exchange rates nominal exchange rates.

  19. Exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the Portuguese target zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Portugal Duarte António

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyse the exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the participation of the Portuguese economy in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM of the European Monetary System (EMS based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. Portugal adopted this exchange rate target zone from April 6 1992 until December 31 1998. During this period, the exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Paul Krugman (1991 model. The analysis of the data also shows that exchange rate volatility tended to increase as the exchange rate approached the edges of the band, contrary to the predictions of the basic model. Interest rate differential volatility, on the other hand, seemed to behave in line with theoretical predictions. This suggests an increase in the credibility of monetary policy, allowing us to conclude that the adoption of a target zone has contributed decisively to the creation of the macroeconomic stability conditions necessary for the participation in the European Monetary Union (EMU. The Portuguese integration process should therefore be considered as an example to be followed by other small open economies in transition to the euro area.

  20. Fixed Exchange Rate Versus Inflation Targeting: Evidence from DSGE Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Viktors Ajevskis; Kristine Vitola

    2011-01-01

    We evaluate implications of inflation targeting versus fixed exchange rate regime for the UK, Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, i.e. seven EU non-euro area countries. To this end, we estimate a small open economy DSGE model and simulate a model under estimated structural parameters and different sets of policy parameters. The results obtained are compared in terms of inflation, output gap and interest rate volatility. For inflation targeting countries, a polic...

  1. Export growth, economic growth and real exchange rate in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Wing-Keung Lo, K.

    2000-01-01

    The thesis studies the export growth, economic growth and real exchange rate in Indonesia. The research is a piece of empirical studies mainly covering the period from 1974 to 1993. Indonesia is an oil-exporting country. Economic recession with high inflation rate in the early eighties prompted the government to undertake a series of economic and financial reforms. It was believed that oil export earnings by itself could not sustain long-term economic growth. Trade reform and devaluation woul...

  2. Effectiveness of high interest rate policy on exchange rates: A reexamination of the Asian financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin Diew Lai

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most controversial issues in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis has been the appropriate response of monetary policy to a sharp decline in the value of some currencies. In this paper, we empirically examine the effects on Asian exchange rates of sharply higher interest rates during the Asian financial crisis. Taking account of the currency contagion effect, our results indicate that sharply higher interest rates helped to support the exchange rates of South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. For Malaysia, no significant causal relation is found from the rate of interest to exchange rates, as the authorities in Malaysia did not actively adopt a high interest rate policy to defend the currency.

  3. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action generated macro - financial stability in terms of inflation and price fluctuation. However, in terms of microeconomic aspects, the unilateral adaptation of Euro as the official currency of Kosovo failed to provide microeconomic advantages such as to export stimulation, and so forth. The main exchange rate regime systems were discussed focusing in their advantages and disadvantages, and it was concluded that there is no commonly accepted theory regarding the optimality of exchange rate regimes. In addition, the global financial crisis impact in the financial system of Kosovo is also discussed and it was found that negative impacts of global financial crisis were moderate and indirect.

  4. Dry/wet performance of a plate-fin air-cooled heat exchanger with continuous corrugated fins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The performance and operating characteristics of a plate-fin heat exchanger in dry/wet or deluge operations was experimentally determined. Development of the deluge heat/mass transfer model continued. The experiments were conducted in a specially-designed wind tunnel at the PNL. Air that was first heated and humidified to specified conditions was circulated at a controlled rate through a 2 ft x 6 ft heat exchanger module. The heat exchanger used in the tests was a wavy surface, plate fin on tube configuration. Hot water was circulated through the tubes at high flow rates to maintain an essentially isothermal condition on the tube side. Deionized water sprayed on the top of the vertically oriented plate fins was collected at the bottom of the core and recirculated. Instrumentation was provided for measurement of flow rates and thermodynamic conditions in the air, in the core circulation water, and in the deluge water. Measurements of the air side pressure drop and heat rejection rate were made as a function of air flow rate, air inlet temperature and humidity, deluge water flow rate, and the core inclination from the vertical. An overall heat transfer coefficient and an effective deluge film convective coefficient was determined. The deluge model, for predicting heat transfer from a wet finned heat exchanger was further developed and refined, and a major extension of the model was formulated that permits simultaneous calculation of both the heat transfer and evaporation rates from the wetted surface. The experiments showed an increase in the heat rejection rate due to wetting, accompanied by a proportional increase in the air side pressure drop. For operation at the same air side pressure drop, the enhancement ratio Q/sub w//Q/sub d/ varied between 2 and 5 for the conditions tested. Thus, the potential enhancement of heat transfer due to wetting can be substantial

  5. Dry/wet performance of a plate-fin air-cooled heat exchanger with continuous corrugated fins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hauser, S.G.; Kreid, D.K.; Johnson, B.M.

    1981-01-01

    The performance and operating characteristics of a plate-fin heat exchanger in dry/wet or deluge operations was experimentally determined. Development of the deluge heat/mass transfer model continued. The experiments were conducted in a specially-designed wind tunnel at the PNL. Air that was first heated and humidified to specified conditions was circulated at a controlled rate through a 2 ft x 6 ft heat exchanger module. The heat exchanger used in the tests was a wavy surface, plate fin on tube configuration. Hot water was circulated through the tubes at high flow rates to maintain an essentially isothermal condition on the tube side. Deionized water sprayed on the top of the vertically oriented plate fins was collected at the bottom of the core and recirculated. Instrumentation was provided for measurement of flow rates and thermodynamic conditions in the air, in the core circulation water, and in the deluge water. Measurements of the air side pressure drop and heat rejection rate were made as a function of air flow rate, air inlet temperature and humidity, deluge water flow rate, and the core inclination from the vertical. An overall heat transfer coefficient and an effective deluge film convective coefficient was determined. The deluge model, for predicting heat transfer from a wet finned heat exchanger was further developed and refined, and a major extension of the model was formulated that permits simultaneous calculation of both the heat transfer and evaporation rates from the wetted surface. The experiments showed an increase in the heat rejection rate due to wetting, accompanied by a proportional increase in the air side pressure drop. For operation at the same air side pressure drop, the enhancement ratio Q/sub w//Q/sub d/ varied between 2 and 5 for the conditions tested. Thus, the potential enhancement of heat transfer due to wetting can be substantial.

  6. Black Market Exchange Rate versus the Official Rate in Testing the PPP: An Application of a Non-Linear Test

    OpenAIRE

    Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee; Altin Tanku

    2007-01-01

    Due to foreign exchange controls in many developing countries, there is a black market for foreign exchange. Since the black market exchange rates are good proxies for the floating exchange rates, they provide relatively more support for the purchasing power parity theory (PPP). In this paper, we show that in a majority of the developing countries the adjustment of relative prices and the nominal black market exchange rate is on a non-linear stationary process, implying that the PPP holds eve...

  7. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  8. Asymmetric cointegration between exchange rate and trade balance in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhaji Jibrilla Aliyu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the long-run pass through of the official exchange rates into trade balance in Nigeria by means of threshold cointegration and asymmetric error correction modeling. The study provides evidence for non-linear cointegration between our variables of interest. The estimated asymmetric error correction models provide new evidence for slower transmission of exchange rate depreciations into the country’s trade balance, which in turn appears to offer partial support for the Dutch disease hypothesis. This finding suggests that policy-makers cannot hope to use currency devaluation to improve the trade balance. It is recommended that policy-makers focus attention on diversification of the economy away from dependence on crude oil exports into productive manufacturing and non-oil exports, which will be vital in making the economy more competitive.

  9. Hybrid empirical mode decomposition- ARIMA for forecasting exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadan, Siti Sarah; Shabri, Ani; Ismail, Shuhaida

    2015-02-01

    This paper studied the forecasting of monthly Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)/ United State Dollar (USD) exchange rates using the hybrid of two methods which are the empirical model decomposition (EMD) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). MYR is pegged to USD during the Asian financial crisis causing the exchange rates are fixed to 3.800 from 2nd of September 1998 until 21st of July 2005. Thus, the chosen data in this paper is the post-July 2005 data, starting from August 2005 to July 2010. The comparative study using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) showed that the EMD-ARIMA outperformed the single-ARIMA and the random walk benchmark model.

  10. Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank...

  11. Computational Fluid Dynamic Modeling of Horizontal Air-Ground Heat Exchangers (HAGHE for HVAC Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Maria Congedo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to satisfy the requirements of Directive 2010/31/EU for Zero Energy Buildings (ZEB, innovative solutions were investigated for building HVAC systems. Horizontal air-ground heat exchangers (HAGHE offer a significant contribution in reducing energy consumption for ventilation, using the thermal energy stored underground, in order to pre-heat or pre-cool the ventilation air, in winter and summer, respectively. This is particularly interesting in applications for industrial, commercial and education buildings where keeping the indoor air quality under control is extremely important. Experimental measurements show that, throughout the year, the outside air temperature fluctuations are mitigated at sufficient ground depth (about 3 m because of the high thermal inertia of the soil, the ground temperature is relatively constant and instead higher than that of the outside air in winter and lower in summer. The study aims to numerically investigate the behavior of HAGHE by varying the air flow rate and soil conductivity in unsteady conditions by using annual weather data of South-East Italy. The analysis shows that, in warm climates, the HAGHE brings a real advantage for only a few hours daily in winter, while it shows significant benefits in the summer for the cooling of ventilation air up to several temperature degrees, already by a short pipe.

  12. Algeria; The Real Exchange Rate, Export Diversification, and Trade Protection

    OpenAIRE

    Piritta Sorsa

    1999-01-01

    Given the tendency of the oil sector to appreciate the equilibrium real exchange rate (RER) in Algeria, trade liberalization with its depreciating impact on the RER is important for diversification of exports. This paper shows that reduction in trade protection would depreciate the RER in Algeria, which in turn would improve competitiveness of, and incentives to invest in, non-oil exports. The paper then discusses existing levels of protection in Algeria and directions for reform.

  13. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area

    OpenAIRE

    International Monetary Fund

    2001-01-01

    The economic conditions in the euro area have brightened. Executive Directors commended the policy stance of the European Central Bank. They noted that the exchange rate developments of the euro failed to strengthen the euro area economy, and stressed the need for fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and wage moderation at the national level to maintain price stability in the medium term. They emphasized the need for deeper integration of European Union financial markets, development of ris...

  14. Exchange Rate Volatility and Optimum Currency Area: Evidence from Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Chrysost Bangaké

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we use a system of simultaneous equations and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) to investigate the relation between bilateral exchange rate volatility and the relevant variables pointed out by the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA) for 21 selected African countries for the period 1990-2003. The evidence turns out to be strongly supported by the data. An OCA index for African countries is derived by adapting a method initially proposed by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1997). The ...

  15. Understanding Real Exchange Rate Movements with Trade in Intermediate Products

    OpenAIRE

    Parsley, David; Popper, Helen

    2009-01-01

    We suggest it may be "too easy" to attribute real exchange rate movements to law of one price deviations. We show that it is immaterial whether one uses seemingly traded goods, nontraded goods, or even just a single, unimportant consumer good, say beer. The ease of attributing the variation to any such deviations is explained using a model with intermediate goods trade. In the model, the stage of production determines the traded/nontraded distinction. We find empirical substantiation for the ...

  16. MODELING EXCHANGE RATES USING ARCH FAMILY OF MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ştefan Cristian CIUCU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, after a brief literature review, the RON / EURO exchange rate time series over the 03.01.2005 - 05.02.2015 time period is analyzed. After checking the stationarity of the data - ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH models will be developed and compared. Next the best model is chosen and the serial correlation and the Jarque-Bera test are further analyzed with various conclusions being drawn.

  17. Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate-Current Account Nexus

    OpenAIRE

    Jun Il Kim

    2007-01-01

    By using a simple intertemporal model of the current account, I show that the exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance would ceteris paribus be smaller for countries with higher government spending ratios (relative to GDP) and with more limited scope for private consumption smoothing. This finding may have important implications for the design of adjustment programs and for resolving current global imbalances. It could also help explain and reconcile mixed empirical findings on trade ela...

  18. Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating

    OpenAIRE

    Michele Cavallo; Kate Kisselev; Fabrizio Perri; Nouriel Roubini

    2004-01-01

    Currency crises are usually associated with large nominal and real depreciations. In some countries depreciations are perceived to be very costly (‘fear of floating’). In this paper we try to understand the reasons behind this fear. We first look at episodes of currency crises in the 1990s and establish that countries entering a crisis with high levels of foreign debt tend to experience large real exchange rate overshooting (devaluation in excess of the long run equilibrium level) and large o...

  19. Multinationals, hedging, and capital structure under exchange rate uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Wong, KP; Broll, U

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the interplay of the financing and hedging decisions of a risk-averse multinational firm having a wholly-owned foreign subsidiary. Exchange rate risk management of the multinational firm is shown to have direct impacts on its international capital structure decision and on its currency of denomination decision. If a currency forward market exists, the multinational firm will devise its international capital structure so as to minimize the global weighted average cost of ca...

  20. Oil Price, Exchange Rate Shock, and the Japanese Economy

    OpenAIRE

    IWAISAKO, TOKUO; NAKATA Hayato

    2015-01-01

    By using the framework of a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model, in this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of exogenous shocks to Japanese output, as measured by aggregate sales, industry sales, and the sales of different firm-size groups. We analyze four structural shocks: (i) oil supply shock; (ii) oil price fluctuations not related to supply and demand; (iii) world economic activity (an aggregate demand shock); and (iv) exchange rate fluctuatio...

  1. Oil Price, Exchange Rate Shock, and the Japanese Economy (Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    IWAISAKO, TOKUO; NAKATA Hayato

    2014-01-01

    Using the framework of structural vector autoregressions (VAR), this paper provides a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of exogenous shocks to Japanese output as measured by aggregate sales, industry sales, and the sales of different firm size groups. We assume four structural shocks, namely, (i) oil supply shock, (ii) oil price fluctuations not related to supply and demand, (iii) world economic activity (aggregate demand shock), and (iv) exchange rate fluctuations not relate...

  2. Modeling of Air Temperature for Heat Exchange due to Vertical Turbulence and Horizontal Air Flow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Lei; MENG Qing-lin

    2009-01-01

    In order to calculate the air temperature of the near surface layer in urban environment,the Sur-face layer air was divided into several layers in the vertical direction,and some energy bakmce equations were de-veloped for each air layer,in which the heat exchange due to vertical turbulence and horizontal air flow was tak-en into account.Then,the vertical temperature distribution of the surface layer air was obtained through the coupled calculation using the energy balance equations of underlying surfaces and building walls.Moreover,the measured air temperatures in a small area (with a horizontal scale of less than 500 m) and a large area (with ahorizontal scale of more than 1000 m) in Guangzhou in summer were used to validate the proposed model.The calculated results agree well with the measured ones,with a maximum relative error of 4.18%.It is thus con-cluded that the proposed model is a high-accuracy method to theoretically analyze the urban heat island and the thermal environment.

  3. Calculation of air supply rates for nonunidirectional airflow cleanrooms

    OpenAIRE

    Whyte, W; Whyte, W.M.; Eaton, T; Lenegan, N.

    2014-01-01

    This article describes a method for estimating the air supply rate required in non-unidirectional airflow cleanrooms to obtain a required concentration of airborne particles and microbe-carrying particles. The variables considered are: surface deposition, emission rates of airborne contamination from personnel and machinery, filter removal efficiency, effectiveness of cleanroom garments, effectiveness of air supply distribution, and the contribution of filtered air from clean air ...

  4. Oil Prices and Interest Rates: Do They Determine the Exchange Rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, I. A.; Old, J. L.

    1986-01-01

    Argues that the relationship between the British pound sterling, interest rates, and oil prices has been overemphasized by economic commentators because they ignored a basic economic theory about the determination of the exchange rate. Provides an example and suggestions for follow up instruction. (Author/JDH)

  5. 26 CFR 1.989(b)-1 - Definition of weighted average exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 10 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Definition of weighted average exchange rate. 1... average exchange rate. For purposes of section 989(b)(3) and (4), the term “weighted average exchange rate” means the simple average of the daily exchange rates (determined by reference to a qualified source...

  6. Queueing theoretical analysis of foreign currency exchange rates

    CERN Document Server

    Inoue, J; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Sazuka, Naoya

    2006-01-01

    We propose a useful approach to investigate statistical properties of foreign currency exchange rates. Our approach is based on queueing theory, especially, the so-called renewal-reward theorem. For first passage processes of the Sony bank USD/JPY exchange rate, we evaluate the average waiting time which is defined as the average time for customers to wait until the next rate change from any time point when they want to check the rate, for example, when they login to their computer systems. We find that the assumption of exponential distribution on the first passage process should be rejected and a Weibull distribution seems to be more suitable to explain the stochastic process of the Sony bank rate. Our approach also enables us to evaluate the expected reward for customers, namely, one can predict how long customers wait and how much reward they obtain by the next price change after they login to the computer systems. We check the validity by comparing our prediction with empirical data analysis.

  7. An experimental investigation on air-side performances of finned tube heat exchangers for indirect air-cooling tower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Du Xueping

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A tremendous quantity of water can be saved if the air cooling system is used, comparing with the ordinary water-cooling technology. In this study, two kinds of finned tube heat exchangers in an indirect air-cooling tower are experimentally studied, which are a plain finned oval-tube heat exchanger and a wavy-finned flat-tube heat exchanger in a cross flow of air. Four different air inlet angles (90°, 60 °, 45°, and 30° are tested separately to obtain the heat transfer and resistance performance. Then the air-side experimental correlations of the Nusselt number and friction factor are acquired. The comprehensive heat transfer performances for two finned tube heat exchangers under four air inlet angles are compared. For the plain finned oval-tube heat exchanger, the vertical angle (90° has the worst performance while 45° and 30° has the best performance at small ReDc and at large ReDc, respectively. For the wavy-finned flat-tube heat exchanger, the worst performance occurred at 60°, while the best performance occurred at 45° and 90° at small ReDc and at large ReDc, respectively. From the comparative results, it can be found that the air inlet angle has completely different effects on the comprehensive heat transfer performance for the heat exchangers with different structures.

  8. Overall reaction rate analysis of ion-exchange resins incineration by fluidized bed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A kinetic study on the incineration of ion-exchange resins was conducted using fluidized bed. In the experiment, cation or anion exchange resins with known quantities were fed into the fluidized bed maintained at a constant temperature from 550 to 750degC. The apparent reaction rate constants kap could be evaluated by the time for completion of combustion derived from the continuous measurement of CO2 concentration in the off-gas. It was confirmed that the reaction of the ion-exchange resins proceeded with the shrinking particle model forming no solid product layer and the rate of disappearance of the resins could be expressed by the surface chemical reaction. Most preferable conditions for incinerating the ion-exchange resins were found to be about 650degC for temperature and more than 4.91 x 10-2m·s-1 for the air velocities at fluidized bed uB. Also, kap for cation and anion exchange resins were found to be 1.25 x 10-2 and 1.51 x 10-2s-1, respectively, at 650degC and uB of 5.45 x 10-2m·s-1. (author)

  9. How External Shocks and Exchange Rate Depreciations Affect Pakistan? Implications for Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Shaghil; Ara, Iffat; Hyder, Kalim

    2005-01-01

    A structural vector autoregression (VAR) model shows that external shocks are important in driving economic fluctuations in Pakistan and their importance has increased since September 11, 2001. The primary source of external shocks is foreign remittances, while foreign output has a limited effect. Keeping fixed external factors, an exogenous real exchange rate depreciation shock lowers output—a positive effect on real net exports (largely resulting from import compression rather export expans...

  10. Exchange Rate Stability and its Implications for Economic Development of the Less Developed Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Gowon, Chileshe Hilda Wabo

    1985-01-01

    The question that Less Developed Countries have faced since the advent of floating exchange rates among the Industrial Countries is whether they should also adopt a floating exchange rate system. The Less Developed Countries have opted for a pegged exchange rate system, since their economic characteristics and institutional structure indicate that floating for the Less Developed Countries would result in volatile or unstable exchange rates. Since Less Developed Countries peg t heir exchange r...

  11. Exchange Rate Determination in Natural Resources-Rich Economies Exchange Rate Determination in Natural Resources-Rich Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón López

    1989-03-01

    Full Text Available Exchange Rate Determination in Natural Resources-Rich Economies This paper deals with the role of natural resources in the process of determination of the real exchange rate within the context of a resource-based sector that is important within the economy and heavily integrated with other sectors. In so doing, the article tries to shed some ligth on questions like: How does the effectiveness of nominal devaluation-in promoting real devaluation in a resource-rich economy compare with that in resource-poor economies? What are the implications for the responsiveness of trade flows to devaluation of explicitly considering a natural resource-based sector? Is devaluation more likely to be contractionary in a resource-rich economy rather than in a economy that does not depend on natural resources? How do changes in resource management policies (i.e., extraction taxes affect the real exchange rate, trade balance and real income in the short run and long run? How have these results been affected by whether the resource is exploited under private property or under common property?

  12. Dynamic model of counter flow air to air heat exchanger for comfort ventilation with condensation and frost formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Toke Rammer; Rose, Jørgen; Kragh, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    In cold climates heat recovery in the ventilation system is essential to reduce heating energy demand. Condensation and freezing occur often in efficient heat exchangers used in cold climates. To develop efficient heat exchangers and defrosting strategies for cold climates, heat and mass transfer...... on a prototype heat exchanger for cold climates....... must be calculated under conditions with condensation and freezing. This article presents a dynamic model of a counter flow air to air heat exchanger taking into account condensation and freezing and melting of ice. The model is implemented in Simulink and results are compared to measurements...

  13. Quasi-steady-state model of a counter flow air-to-air heat exchanger with phase change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jørgen; Nielsen, Toke Rammer; Kragh, Jesper;

    2008-01-01

    -exchanger. Developing highly efficient heat-exchangers and strategies to avoid/remove frost formation implies the use of detailed models to predict and evaluate different heat-exchanger designs and strategies. This paper presents a quasi-steady-state model of a counter-flow air-to-air heat-exchanger that takes......Using mechanical ventilation with highly efficient heat-recovery in northern European or arctic climates is a very efficient way of reducing the energy use for heating in buildings. However, it also presents a series of problems concerning condensation and frost formation in the heat...

  14. Effects of interest rate, exchange rate and their volatilities on stock prices: evidence from banking industry of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Tehseen JAWAID

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of exchange rate, interest rates, and their volatilities on stock prices of banking industry of Pakistan. Cointegration results suggests the existance of significant negative long run relationship between exchange rate and short term interest rate with stock prices. On the other hand, positive and significant relationship exists between volatilities of exchange rate and interest rate with stock prices. Causality analysis confirms bidirectional causality between exchange rate and stock prices. Whereas, unidirectional causality runs from short term interest rate to stock prices. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the results are robust. It is suggested that investors should invest in banking sector stocks when exchange rate and interest rates are highly volatile. The result also supports the view that exchange rate and interest rate can be used as an indicator for investment decision making in banking sector stocks.

  15. Energy exchange rates between the ionosphere-thermosphere system and the magnetosphere at high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aikio, A.; Cai, L.; Nygren, T.; Kuula, R.

    2012-04-01

    The magnetosphere and the ionosphere-thermosphere system exchange energy in the form of electromagnetic energy flux, accompanied by electric fields and field-aligned currents, as well as in the form of precipitating particle fluxes. In this study, we examine the first form of energy exchange by using a one-month database obtained by the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar measurements in Tromso. The electromagnetic energy exchange rate can be further divided into ion-neutral frictional heating rate (sometimes called Joule heating) and work done on neutrals. The ion-neutral frictional heating rate depends on Pedersen conductivity and on ionospheric electric fields, measured in the frame of reference moving with the neutrals. The role of neutral winds has been an open question, since it is difficult to measure them. The CP2 scan mode of the EISCAT radar makes it possible to deduce neutral winds in the E region and hence to estimate the role of neutral air motion (e.g. tidal winds and atmospheric gravity waves) in the energy exchange rates. In this talk, we will present the magnetic local time (MLT) dependence of height-integrated quantities: electromagnetic energy exchange rates (QEM), ion-neutral frictional heating rate (QJ) and work done on neutrals (Qm) for different magnetic activity levels categorized by the Kp index. We will show that the role of winds is different in different MLT sectors (e.g. dusk vs. dawn) and at different activity levels. We will also show that on rare occasions the ionosphere can act as a dynamo generating electromagnetic energy that may propagate to the magnetosphere.

  16. Systems theory approach for a reconstruction method to estimate the rate of air change by measuring the indoor radon concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy renovation works on buildings can cause disturbance of the indoor air quality. As part of the whole project to determine the rate of air change from measurements of radon concentration, a system-theoretical approach is developed, which makes it possible to determine the rate of air exchange from the measured temporal course of the radon activity concentration under everyday conditions, and bring it in connection with the indoor air quality. The determination of the rate of air exchange can be accomplished in two steps. The first step is an initial measurement of a few hours to calculate the radon source strength by low and constant air change rate. The radon source strength contains the complete characterization of the examination area. In the second step, using the reconstruction method [1], the rate of air change can be determinate from a long term measurement of radon concentration occurring under everyday conditions. In the context of this paper, a numerical method is developed using the systemtheoretical considerations, which determine an efficient source strength and reconstructs the rate of air change from the measured radon concentration course as noiseless as possible. The main challenges here are, identifying and highlighting relevant signal characteristics and the suitable choice of filter for suppression of artifacts and signal noise. This method could be verified by practical experiments in a constructed test chamber, and thus delivers a tool to determine the course of the air exchange rate from diverse noisy measurements of radon concentration course. (orig.)

  17. Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavárek Daniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the evolution of effective exchange rates in nine Central and Eastern European countries in terms of development trends, volatility and cyclicality. Consequently, it provides direct empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between effective exchange rates and selected macroeconomic fundamentals, addressing a key precondition of numerous exchange rate determination models and theories that attempt to explain the role of exchange rates in the economy. The results suggest that flexible exchange rate arrangements are reflected in both nominal and real effective exchange rates having higher volatility and variability. Furthermore, the results provide mixed evidence in terms of intensity, direction and cyclicality, but show a weak correlation between exchange rates and fundamentals. Sufficiently high coefficients are found only for money supply. Consequently, using fundamentals for the determination of exchange rates and using the exchange rate to explain economic development may be of limited use for the countries analyzed.

  18. Are Money, Interest Rates, Output and the Exchange Rate Cointegrated? Implications for Monetary Targeting

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Socorro Gochoco

    1993-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between various monetary aggregates and real income, the 91-day Treasury bill rate, and the nominal exchange rate using the Engle and Granger cointegration method. The idea is that the choice for a monetary target should be controllable by the Central Bank and must have a stable and predictable relationship with variables of interest to policymakers. The results show that only M1 is cointegrated with real income, the 91-day Treasury bill rate, and the nomi...

  19. Air-side Particulate Fouling of Microchannel Heat Exchangers: Experimental Comparison of Air-Side Pressure Drop and Heat Transfer with Plate-Fin Heat Exchanger

    OpenAIRE

    Bell, Ian; Groll, Eckhard

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the air-side pressure drop and heat transfer performance of plate-fin and microchannel coils were tested under clean and fouled conditions. The heat exchangers were tested with two different types of dust, ASHRAE Standard Dust and Arizona Road Test Dust. The ASHRAE Standard Dust was found to have a very significant impact on the pressure drop of the microchannel heat exchanger, increasing the air-side pressure drop of the microchannel heat exchanger over 200% for a dust injec...

  20. Bacterioneuston control of air-water methane exchange determined with a laboratory gas exchange tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upstill-Goddard, Robert C.; Frost, Thomas; Henry, Gordon R.; Franklin, Mark; Murrell, J. Colin; Owens, Nicholas J. P.

    2003-12-01

    The apparent transfer velocities (kw) of CH4, N2O, and SF6 were determined for gas invasion and evasion in a closed laboratory exchange tank. Tank water (pure Milli-RO® water or artificial seawater prepared in Milli-RO®) and/or tank air gas compositions were adjusted, with monitoring of subsequent gas transfer by gas chromatography. Derived kw was converted to "apparent k600," the value for CO2 in freshwater at 20°C. For CH4, analytical constraints precluded estimating apparent k600 based on tank air measurements. In some experiments we added strains of live methanotrophs. In others we added chemically deactivated methanotrophs, non-CH4 oxidizers (Vibrio), or bacterially associated surfactants, as controls. For all individual controls, apparent k600 estimated from CH4, N2O, or SF6 was indistinguishable. However, invasive estimates always exceeded evasive estimates, implying some control of gas invasion by bubbles. Estimates of apparent k600 differed significantly between methanotroph strains, possibly reflecting species-specific surfactant release. For individual strains during gas invasion, apparent k600 estimated from CH4, N2O, or SF6 was indistinguishable, whereas during gas evasion, k600-CH4 was significantly higher than either k600-N2O or k600-SF6, which were identical. Hence evasive k600-CH4/k600-SF6 was always significantly above unity, whereas invasive k600-CH4/k600-SF6 was not significantly different from unity. Similarly, k600-CH4/k600-SF6 for the controls and k600-N2O/k600-SF6 for all experiments did not differ significantly from unity. Our results are consistent with active metabolic control of CH4 exchange by added methanotrophs in the tank microlayer, giving enhancements of ˜12 ± 10% for k600-CH4. Hence reactive trace gas fluxes determined by conventional tracer methods at sea may be in error, prompting a need for detailed study of the role of the sea surface microlayer in gas exchange.

  1. Evaluation of heat exchange performance for air-cooler in HTTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) of 30MW, the generated heat at reactor core is finally dissipated at the air-cooler (ACL) by way of the heat exchangers of the primary pressurized water cooler and the intermediate heat exchanger. To remove generated hear at reactor core and to hold reactor inlet coolant temperature to specified temperature, heat exchangers in main cooling system of HTTR should have designed heat exchange performance. In this report, heat exchange performance for ACL in main cooling system is evaluated with previous operation data, and evaluated values are compared with designed value. Moreover, heat exchange performance at full power operation is estimated for the air temperature. As the result, ACL has heat exchange performance removing generated heat at reactor core under the ACL inlet air temperature of 33 degC. (author)

  2. The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Rudan Wang; Bruce Morley; Javier Ordóñez

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop models of the Taylor rule and a Taylor rule based exchange rate model incorporating wealth effects, as represented by both asset prices and asset wealth. In addition these wealth effects are further divided into stock market and housing wealth. Using data for Australia, Sweden, UK and the US, the Taylor model is estimated and then used to forecast out-of-sample. The results suggest that the effects of the asset prices and wealth on the Taylor rule are mixed...

  3. Efficiency gains under exchange-rate emission trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the case of emission of non-uniformly dispersed pollutants such as SO2 the negative effects depend on the location of the sources. A unit increase at one source must be compensated by either a larger or smaller reduction at another source to keep the negative effects at the same level. Emission trading between countries is possible under the Second Sulphur Protocol. Exchange rate trading and third party problems are studied within a simultaneous model facilitating impositions of various environmental constraints. Simulations based on the negotiated emission quotas are offered. Results indicate potential cost savings of 19%. 16 refs

  4. Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    SATO Kiyotaka; SHIMIZU Junko; Nagendra SHRESTHA; Shajuan ZHANG

    2015-01-01

    This study constructs a monthly series of industry-specific real effective exchange rates (I-REERs) based on the producer price indices of nine Asian economies from 2001 to 2014. To check the usefulness of the I-REERs as a measurement of international price competitiveness, we calculated the aggregated I-REER (Avg-I-REER) and compared it with the REER published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS-REER). We found that in some Asian economies, the Avg-I-REER exhibited different movem...

  5. Air/surface exchange processes of mercury and their linkage to atmospheric pools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The atmospheric mercury cycle is strongly linked to the terrestrial, aquatic and biologic cycle of mercury via air/surface exchange processes. In order to quantify mercury fluxes from and to the atmosphere to predict local and regional source contributions the methods for flux measurements as well as the physicochemical factors controlling air/surface exchange processes must be assessed. We will describe methods for the determination of mercury and mercury species in ambient air which are basic for investigation of air/surface exchange processes. Further on we will describe approaches for studying the physicochemical factors controlling this processes by using a new laboratory flux measurement system. (author)

  6. Matlab Simulations of Exchange Rate Behavior using a Monetary Model with Flexible Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corina SBUGHEA

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to create a short summary of theories on exchange rate formation mechanism and illustrating the connection between domestic and foreign interest rates and the exchange rate. For this we chose a monetary model with flexible prices, with which we traced the evolution trajectories of the exchange rate, under the influence of internal and external factors.

  7. Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments

    OpenAIRE

    Yin-wong Cheung; Lai, Kon S.; Michael Bergman

    2003-01-01

    The conventional view, as expounded by sticky-price models, is that price adjustment determines the PPP reversion rate. This study examines the mechanism by which PPP deviations are corrected. Nominal exchange rate adjustment, not price adjustment, is shown to be the key engine governing the speed of PPP convergence. Moreover, nominal exchange rates are found to converge much more slowly than prices. With the reversion being driven primarily by nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates also...

  8. Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustment

    OpenAIRE

    Cheung, Yin-Wong; Lai, Kon S.; BERGMAN, MICHAEL

    2003-01-01

    The conventional view, as expounded by sticky-price models, is that price adjustment determines the PPP reversion rate. This study examines the mechanism by which PPP deviations are corrected. Nominal exchange rate adjustment, not price adjustment, is shown to be the key engine governing the speed of PPP convergence. Moreover, nominal exchange rates are found to converge much more slowly than prices. With the reversion being driven primarily by nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates also...

  9. Ability of the New EU Member States to Fulfill the Exchange Rate Stability Convergence Criterion

    OpenAIRE

    Stavarek, Daniel

    2006-01-01

    This paper assesses exchange rate development and volatility in six new EU member states (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) during the period November 1996 - April 2006. The study is motivated by the unavoidable participation of the new member states’ currencies in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II and fulfillment of the exchange rate stability convergence criterion. The development of exchange rates is examined by the calculation of various rates of return and the...

  10. Experimental Study on Match for Indoor and Outdoor Heat Exchanger of Residential Air-conditioner

    OpenAIRE

    Tu, Xiaoping; Liang, Xiangfei; Zhuang, Rong

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the effects of indoor unit heat transfer area and air flow rate and outdoor unit air flow rate on the system performance of residential air-conditioner were experimentally investigated under rated cooling and heating conditions. The experimental results showed that the system cooling capacity, EER, heating capacity and COP all had evident variation with indoor unit heat transfer area and air flow rate and out unit air flow rate, which predicated that there was a proper match ra...

  11. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  12. Air exchanges and indoor carbon dioxide concentration in Australian pig buildings: Effect of housing and management factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banhazi, T. M.; Stott, P.; Rutley, D.; Blanes-Vidal, V.; Pitchford, W.

    2011-01-01

    factors on the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and air exchange rates in 160 representative Australian pig buildings. CO(2) concentrations were measured, air changes per hour (ACH) were estimated using a CO(2) balance method, and structural and management parameters were recorded. The mean CO(2...... the highest CO(2) concentrations while deep-bedding shelters had the lowest. Winter CO(2) concentrations were higher in all buildings compared to summer. Buildings with automated ridge ventilation control had the lowest CO(2) concentrations. The wall ventilation inlet height was negatively correlated......) concentration measured was 858 ppm and a mean air exchange rate of 22.8 ACH was estimated. The analysis showed that CO(2) concentrations were affected by the type of building, season, control of the wall and ridge vents, ceiling height, size of the wall vents and height of the ridge vents. Weaner buildings had...

  13. The Responsiveness of Consumer Prices to Exchange Rates And the Implications for Exchange-Rate Policy: A Survey Of a Few Recent New Open-Economy...

    OpenAIRE

    Charles Engel

    2002-01-01

    The traditional case for flexibility in nominal exchange rates assumes that there is nominal price stickiness that prevents relative prices from adjusting in response to real shocks. When prices are sticky in producers' currencies, nominal exchange rate changes can achieve the relative price change that is required between home and foreign goods. The nominal exchange rate flexibility provides the desired 'expenditure-switching' effect of relative price changes. But if prices are fixed ex ante...

  14. Parametric simulation and experimental analysis of earth air heat exchanger with solar air heating duct

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjeev Jakhar

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Earth air heat exchanger (EAHE systems are insufficient to meet the thermal comfort requirements in winter conditions. The low heating potential of such systems can be improved by integrating the system with solar air heating duct (SAHD. The aim of this paper is to present a model to estimate the heating potential for EAHE system with and without SAHD. The model is generated using TRNSYS 17 simulation tool and validated against experimental investigation on an experimental set-up in Ajmer, India. The experiment was done during the winter season, where the system was evaluated for different inlet flow velocities, length and depth of buried pipe. From the experimentation, it was observed that the depth of 3.7 m is sufficient for pipe burial and the 34 m length of pipe is sufficient to get optimum EAHE outlet temperature. It is also observed that increase in flow velocity results in drop in EAHE outlet temperature, while room temperature is found to increase for higher velocities (5 m/s. The COP of the system also increased up to 6.304 when assisted with solar air heating duct. The results obtained from the experiment data are in good agreement with simulated results within the variation of up to 7.9%.

  15. The changing role of the exchange rate in a globalised economy.

    OpenAIRE

    Filippo di Mauro; Rasmus Rueffer; Irina Bunda

    2008-01-01

    In addition to its direct effects on the global trading and production structure, the ongoing process of globalisation may have important implications for the interaction of exchange rates and the overall economy. This paper presents evidence regarding possible changes in the role of exchange rates in a more globalised economy. First, it analyses the link between exchange rates and prices, showing that there is at most a moderate decline in exchange rate pass-through for the euro area. Next, ...

  16. Exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises – results of a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Bodnár, Katalin

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, I examine the exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises from a financial stability perspective. In connection with the recent growth in FX loans to enterprises, the central bank assesses the vulnerability of the banks' loan portfolio to changes in the exchange rate. To collect company-level data, two surveys were carried out on exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk management practices. The first survey carried out in 2005 showed that the majority of small and med...

  17. Effects of Trade Openness, Exchange Rate, and Oil Price on the Exports in Syria

    OpenAIRE

    Adel Shakeeb Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to test the effect of trade openness, exchange rate and oil price on the exports in Syria over the period 1970-2010. The cointegration test indicates that exports are positively related to trade openness and oil price, but negatively related to exchange rate. Exchange rate has the biggest effect on the exports. The Granger causality test indicates bidirectional causality relationships between trade openness, exchange rate, oil price and exports in the short and long run. T...

  18. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary ...

  19. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    OpenAIRE

    Trifonova, Silvia; Kovachevich, Milena

    2016-01-01

    The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of...

  20. What Drives Heterogeneity in Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Deep Insights from a New Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Dreger, Christian; Stadtmann, Georg

    2006-01-01

    Foreign exchange rate expectations play a central role in virtually all monetary models for the open economy. Therefore, it is extremely important to gain empirical insights into the expectations formation process. In this paper, we use a unique disaggregated data set to model the expectations of the Yen/USD exchange rate of about 50 leading foreign exchange rate professionals. The survey includes not only forecasts of the exchange rate, but also for macroeconomic fundamentals, like GDP growt...

  1. What drives heterogeneity in foreign exchange rate expectations: insights from a new survey

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Dreger; Georg Stadtmann

    2008-01-01

    Foreign exchange rate expectations play a central role in virtually all monetary models for the open economy. Therefore, it is extremely important to gain empirical insights into the expectations formation process. In this paper, we use a unique disaggregated data set to model the expectations of the Yen|USD exchange rate of about 50 leading foreign exchange rate professionals. The survey includes not only exchange rate projections but also expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals, l...

  2. REAL SHOCK OR NOMINAL SHOCK? EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS IN CAMBODIA AND LAO PDR

    OpenAIRE

    SEIHA OK; MAKOTO KAKINAKA; HIROAKI MIYAMOTO

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses a primary factor responsible for exchange rate fluctuations of the Cambodian riel and the Laotian kip against the US dollar. The dynamic effects of real and nominal shocks are examined through applying a vector autoregression (VAR) model of real and nominal exchange rates under the assumption of the long-run neutrality of nominal shocks on real exchange rates. This approach allows us to decompose exchange rate movements into two components, real and nominal factors, in or...

  3. Real Shocks and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: In the Case of Wage Rigidity

    OpenAIRE

    Hee-Ho Kim; John Dutton

    1997-01-01

    Using a simple exchange rate model, this paper investigates the role of unemployment in determining the ejfects of different shocks on the real exchange rate. The presence of unenioloyment in an economy is shown to significantly alter the relationship between real variables and the real exchange rate. This implies that the generally believed traditional propositions concerning real shocks and the exchange rate might not be valid anymore in the economy with unemployment and thus, that l ignori...

  4. Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries

    OpenAIRE

    Juan Carlos Berganza; Carmen Broto

    2011-01-01

    Emerging economies with inflation targets (IT) face a dilemma between fulflling the theoretical conditions of "strict IT", which implies a fully flexible exchange rate, or applying a "flexible IT", which entails a de facto managed floating exchange rate with forex interventions to moderate exchange rate volatility. Using a panel data model for 37 countries we find that, although IT lead to higher exchange rate instability than alternative regimes, forex interventions in some IT countries have...

  5. Exchange Rate Instability: Japan's Micro-Macro Experiences and Implications for China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mamoru Ishida

    2006-01-01

    Since 1985, the yen-dollar exchange rates repeatedly fluctuated and climbed to a level that could not be justified by economic fundamentals. The impacts on the Japanese economy were serious and far-reaching.Since 21 July 2005, China has been moving toward a more flexible exchange rate regime. Keeping RMB exchange rates basically stable and providing Chinese industries with means to hedge exchange rate risks are essential for China's sound economic development.

  6. Oil Export Earnings, Exchange Rate Variability, and Economic Growth in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Folorunso Sunday Ayadi; Olubunmi Elizabeth Oluwagbemi

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates oil revenue and exchange rate volatility and as well as their impacts on Nigerian economic growth which is examined from 1980 – 2010. Exchange rate volatility was captured using standard deviationof monthly nominal effective exchange rate. During this period, Nigeria recorded high levels of volatility (in oil receipt and effective exchange rate) as can be seen from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the General Autoregressive Conditional Het...

  7. Purchasing Power Parity and Real Exchange Rates in Case of Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Murat Doganlar; Mehmet Ozmen

    2000-01-01

    Purchasing power parity states that changes in the nominal exchange rates should reflect the inflation differences. This indicates that if nominal exchange rate changes reflect home and foreign inflation differences, then real exchange rate should remain unchanged. Recent time series econometrics techniques can test this proposal. If the real exchange rate series contain a unit root, then the series are told to be nonstationary which means that PPP (Purchasing power parity) does not hold. Aug...

  8. Helium-air exchange flow through an opening with a partition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The helium-air exchange flow through a small vertical opening with a partition was experimentally investigated. The vertical partition was aligned with the center line of the small opening to evaluate the effects of the multiple openings. The dimensionless exchange flow rates, i.e., Froude numbers, were experimentally obtained with several opening ratios (H1/Df), i.e., the ratio of the height to the effective diameter of the opening. In the case of low opening ratios (H1/Df 1/Df ≥ 0.75), the measured Froude numbers for the multiple openings were larger than those for the single opening, because the upward and downward flows were separated by the vertical partition. Based on the balance between the pressure losses in the openings and the driving force due to density difference, the exchange flow rate was calculated, and found to agree qualitatively with the measured Froude numbers. The effect of the upward and downward flow interaction at the exit of the opening was found to play an important role in the prediction of the Froude number. (author)

  9. A firm-specific exposure analyis of the exchange-rate exposure of Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. de Jong; J. Ligterink; V. Macrae

    2006-01-01

    We examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50 per cent of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a depreciati

  10. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates : How to Solve the Puzzles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US do

  11. The specification of cross exchange rate equations used to test Purchasing Power Parity

    OpenAIRE

    Hunter, J; Simpson, M.

    2004-01-01

    The Article considers the specification of models used to test Purchasing Power Parity when applied to cross exchange rates. Specifically, conventional dynamic models used to test stationarity of the real exchange rate are likely to be misspecified, except when the parameters of each exchange rate equation are the same.

  12. Percieved Relationship between Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1970-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. J Obansa

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study was specifically embarked upon to establish empirically the relationship exiting among Exchange rate, Interest rate and economic growth in Nigerian economy over the period of 1970-2010. Fundamentally, the period of the study was fractured into two prominent distinctions of economic era - the regulation era and the deregulation era. The study adopted vector auto- regression (VAR technique, with specific emphasis on Impulse Response factor and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition. The result indicated that Exchange rate had a stronger impact on Economic growth than Interest rate. Particularly, Interest rate impact was found to be positive but however declined as the time horizon increased. It had a little impact on Economic growth in the period of regulation than in the deregulation era. The conclusion arising from the study shows that Exchange rate liberalization was good to Nigerian Economy as it promotes Economic growth. Interest rate liberalization on the other hand does not make an appreciable impact on the Economic growth as it undermines investment drive. The paper therefore recommends that Interest rate liberalization and deregulation should be replaced with the policy of Interest rate regulation as obtained in the 1970s and early 1980s. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; text-align:justify; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

  13. Air-water CO2 exchange in five hypereutrophic lakes in Bangalore, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, G.; Ghosh, P.; Bala, G.; Bastviken, D.

    2014-12-01

    Inland water bodies play a significant role in terrestrial carbon cycling, rather than being just conduits for the transport of terrestrial carbon to the oceans. Recent syntheses estimate that freshwaters emit substantial amounts of CO2 (1.4 Pg C yr-1) (Tranvik et al. 2009) and CH4 (0.65 Pg C yr-1) (Bastviken et al. 2011), which are similar in magnitude to the global terrestrial carbon sink (2.5 ± 1.7 Pg C yr-1) (IPCC 2013). However, eutrophic waters, which constitute the majority of the global freshwater supply (ILEC/UNEP 1994, Liu et al. 2012, Carpenter et al. 1998), are vastly underrepresented in these estimates. These waters, due to high primary productivity leading to CO2 undersaturation, can act as sinks rather than sources of CO2, thus reversing the role of lakes in the carbon cycle (Balmer and Downing 2011, Pacheco et al. 2013). We are investigating the air-water CO2 exchange of five hypereutrophic lakes in urban Bangalore using a novel Non-Dispersive Infrared (NDIR)-based CO2 sensor installed in flux chambers that can be used to measure CO2 exchange in lakes in situ. This work is a part of a larger study called Bangalore Carbon Mapping Study that aims to track the spatial flows of carbon in an urban area of a developing country. Preliminary observations reveal that these lakes absorb CO2 during the photosynthetic hours, at an average rate of 3.4 mg C m-2 h-1. The ongoing study will characterize the complete diurnal cycle of CO2 exchange, its variation over different seasons, and its relationships with various limnological and catchment characteristics. The flux estimates thus produced will also be compared with those predicted by the current models for air-water gas exchange based on wind speed.

  14. Quasi-steady-state model of a counter-flow air-to-air heat-exchanger with phase change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, Joergen; Nielsen, Toke Rammer; Kragh, Jesper; Svendsen, Svend [Department of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Brovej, Building 118, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

    2008-05-15

    Using mechanical ventilation with highly efficient heat-recovery in northern European or arctic climates is a very efficient way of reducing the energy use for heating in buildings. However, it also presents a series of problems concerning condensation and frost formation in the heat-exchanger. Developing highly efficient heat-exchangers and strategies to avoid/remove frost formation implies the use of detailed models to predict and evaluate different heat-exchanger designs and strategies. This paper presents a quasi-steady-state model of a counter-flow air-to-air heat-exchanger that takes into account the effects of condensation and frost formation. The model is developed as an Excel spreadsheet, and specific results are compared with laboratory measurements. As an example, the model is used to determine the most energy-efficient control strategy for a specific heat-exchanger under northern European and arctic climate conditions. (author)

  15. Solvent Exchange in Liquid Methanol and Rate Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dang, Liem X.; Schenter, Gregory K.

    2016-01-01

    To enhance our understanding of the solvent exchange mechanism in liquid methanol, we report a systematic study of this process using molecular dynamics simulations. We use transition state theory, the Impey-Madden-McDonald method, the reactive flux method, and Grote-Hynes theory to compute the rate constants for this process. Solvent coupling was found to dominate, resulting in a significantly small transmission coefficient. We predict a positive activation volume for the methanol exchange process. The essential features of the dynamics of the system as well as the pressure dependence are recovered from a Generalized Langevin Equation description of the dynamics. We find that the dynamics and response to anharmonicity can be decomposed into two time regimes, one corresponding to short time response (< 0.1 ps) and long time response (> 5 ps). An effective characterization of the process results from launching dynamics from the planar hypersurface corresponding to Grote-Hynes theory. This results in improved numerical convergence of correlation functions. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences. The calculations were carried out using computer resources provided by the Office of Basic Energy Sciences.

  16. A simple method for air/sea gas exchange measurement in mesocosms and its application in carbon budgeting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Czerny

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Mesocosms as large experimental vessels principally provide the opportunity of performing elemental budget calculations e.g. to derive net biological turnover rates. However, the system is in most cases not closed at the water surface and gases can exchange with the atmosphere. Previous attempts to budget carbon pools in mesocosms relied on educated guesses concerning the exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere. Nevertheless, net primary production rates derived from these budget calculations were, despite large uncertainties in air/sea gas exchange, often more reasonable than cumulative extrapolations of bioassays. While bioassays have limitations representing the full spectrum of trophic levels and abiotic conditions inside the mesocosms, calculating dissolved inorganic carbon uptake inside the mesocosms has the potential to deliver net community production rates representative of the enclosed system. Here, we present a simple method for precise determination of air/sea gas exchange velocities in mesocosms using N2O as a deliberate tracer. Beside the application for carbon budgeting, exchange velocities can be used to calculate exchange rates of any gas of known concentration, e.g. to calculate aquatic production rates of climate relevant trace gases. Using an arctic (Kiel Off Shore Mesocosms for future Ocean Simulation mesocosm experiment as an exemplary dataset, it is shown that application of the presented method largely improves accuracy of carbon budget estimates. Methodology of manipulation, measurement, data processing and conversion to CO2 fluxes are explained. A theoretical discussion of prerequisites for precise gas exchange measurements provides a guideline for the applicability of the method under various experimental conditions.

  17. Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jozef M. Van Brabant

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines potential conflicts between rapid EU integration of economies in transition (EiTs and their pursuing catch-up by focusing on exchange-rate policies. After justifying the proposed inquiry, official pronouncements on ER policies that EUcandidates are expected to pursue in the run-up to and upon their accession are summarized, and the salient features of recent debates on ER regimes recalled. Inasmuch as EiTs must modernize and reconcile this obligation with EU membership, in spite of the EU's cohesion experience, the paper combines real and nominal convergence issues with institutional changes upon EU accession to draw a novel perspective on the desirable postaccession transition regime for EiTs with a fairly active ER policy and the EU's cohesion strategy. Core components of such a strategy are advocated.

  18. [Effect of air temperature and rainfall on wetland ecosystem CO2 exchange in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Xiao-jing; Han, Guang-xuan

    2015-10-01

    Wetland can be a potential efficient sink to reduce global warming due to its higher primary productivity and lower carbon decomposition rate. While there has been a series progress on the influence mechanism of ecosystem CO2 exchange over China' s wetlands, a systematic metaanalysis of data still needs to be improved. We compiled data of ecosystem CO2 exchange of 21 typical wetland vegetation types in China from 29 papers and carried out an integrated analysis of air temperature and precipitation effects on net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (Reco), gross primary productivity (GPP), the response of NEE to PAR, and the response of Reco to temperature. The results showed that there were significant responses (Pprecipitation on the annual scale. On the growing season scale, air temperature accounted for 50% of the spatial variation of NEE, 36% of GPP and 19% of Reco, respectively. Both NEE (R2 = 33%) and GPP (R2 =25%) were correlated positively with precipitation (Pprecipitation was not significant (P>0.05). Across different Chinese wetlands, both precipitation and temperature had no significant effect on apparent quantum yield (α) or ecosystem respiration in the daytime (Reco,day, P>0.05). The maximum photosynthesis rate (Amax) was remarkably correlated with precipitation (P precipitation (P>0.05). Precipitation was negatively correlated with temperature sensitivity of Reco (Q10, P<0.05). Furthermore, temperature accounted for 35% and 46% of the variations in temperature sensitivity of Reco (Q10) and basal respiration (Rref P<0.05), respectively. PMID:26995905

  19. Financial crisis and exchange rates in emerging economies: An empirical analysis using PPP-UIP-Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Rashid

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the effects of 2008 financial crisis on exchange rate determination in PPP-UIP framework for four emerging countries, using monthly date over the period 1981-2012. The results suggest that the recent financial crisis led to change the role of exchange rate determinants in exchange rate determination. The findings also reveal that the effects of financial crisis on the exchange rate are different in all the four emerging economies. The findings of the study are of significant for policy makers in designing effective policies in order to reduce the effects of financial crisis on exchange rates.

  20. Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies

    OpenAIRE

    Ali M Kutan; Selahattin Dibooglu

    1998-01-01

    This paper provides an empirical inquiry into the sources of movements of the real and nominal exchange rates in Hungary and Poland for during the 1990:01-1998:02 period. We decompose the exchange rate movements into those attributable to real and nominal shocks, we find that (1) nominal shocks have played a significant role in Poland, but not in Hungary, in explaining real exchange rate movements during the transition period. Instead, real shocks have dominated real exchange movements in Hun...

  1. Investigating causal relationship between stock return with respect to exchange rate and FII: evidence from India

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Sundaram

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic parameters like Exchange rate and foreign institutional investment with stock returns in India, in particular at National Stock Exchange. I find that both stock returns and exchange rate are integrated of order one. The Engle–Granger Cointegration test is then performed, suggesting that there is not a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock returns and exchange rates at 5% significance level. Moreover, ...

  2. Macroeconomic Aspects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in the Central European Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Rajmund MIRDALA

    2012-01-01

    Exchange rate unexpected fluctuations determine economic development of countries the way quite similar to any other type of exogenous shocks. Unpredicted volatility in exchange rate short-run path affects macroeconomic performance the way that may be a subject of academic as well as economic policy discussions. Overall exposure of countries to negative implications of exchange rate volatility represents one of the areas of empirical investigations related to fixed versus flexible exchange ra...

  3. A study of energy exchange in earth air tubes

    OpenAIRE

    Bexell, Jonas; Bjureus, Erik

    2010-01-01

    As energy issues today are of great interest the writers of this report have done a research about an alternative to save energy by reducing the cost of preheating the outdoor air. By taking the outdoor air to the ventilation system via a pipe buried in the ground, you can preheat the outdoor air, which, in turn, could save energy. By doing this you do not have to bring as much energy to preheat the supply air, to get the desired supply air temperature. The report also explains if the earth a...

  4. Financial contagion, interest rates and the role of the exchange rate as shock absorber in Central and Eastern Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Maurizio Michael Habib

    2002-01-01

    This paper studies the impact of external factors on daily exchange rates and short-term interest rates in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland during the period August 1997 – May 2001. I find that neither exchange rates nor interest rates are influenced by short-term German interest rates. Nevertheless, I show that shocks to emerging-market risk premia had a significant impact on exchange rates in all three Central and Eastern European count-ries and on interest rates in the Czech Republic...

  5. Sea-ice melt CO2-carbonate chemistry in the western Arctic Ocean: meltwater contributions to air-sea CO2 gas exchange, mixed layer properties and rates of net community production under sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. R. Bates

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The carbon dioxide (CO2-carbonate chemistry of sea-ice melt and co-located, contemporaneous seawater has rarely been studied in sea ice covered oceans. Here, we describe the CO2-carbonate chemistry of sea-ice melt (both above sea ice as "melt ponds" and below sea ice as "interface waters" and mixed layer properties in the western Arctic Ocean in the early summer of 2010 and 2011. At nineteen stations, the salinity (~ 0.5 to –1 and total alkalinity (TA; ~ 30 to –1 of above-ice melt pond water was low compared to water in the underlying mixed layer. The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 in these melt ponds was highly variable (~ 1500 μatm with the majority of melt ponds acting as potentially strong sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. The pH of melt pond waters was also highly variable ranging from mildly acidic (6.1 to 7 to slightly more alkaline than underlying seawater (8 to 10.7. All of observed melt ponds had very low (3 minerals such as aragonite (Ωaragonite. Our data suggests that sea ice generated "alkaline" or "acidic" melt pond water. This melt-water chemistry dictates whether the ponds are sources of CO2 to the atmosphere or CO2 sinks. Below-ice interface water CO2-carbonate chemistry data also indicated substantial generation of alkalinity, presumably owing to dissolution of calcium CaCO3 in sea ice. The interface waters generally had lower pCO2 and higher pH/Ωaragonite than the co-located mixed layer beneath. Sea-ice melt thus contributed to the suppression of mixed layer pCO2 enhancing the surface ocean's capacity to uptake CO2 from the atmosphere. Meltwater contributions to changes in mixed–layer DIC were also used to estimate net community production rates (mean of 46.9 ±29.8 g C m–2 for the early-season period under sea-ice cover. Although sea-ice melt is a transient seasonal feature, above-ice melt pond coverage can be substantial (10 to > 50% and under-ice interface melt water is ubiquitous during this spring/summer sea

  6. Low GWP Refrigerants Modelling Study for a Room Air Conditioner Having Microchannel Heat Exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Bo [ORNL; Bhandari, Mahabir S [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Microchannel heat exchangers (MHX) have found great successes in residential and commercial air conditioning applications, being compact heat exchangers, to reduce refrigerant charge and material cost. This investigation aims to extend the application of MHXs in split, room air conditioners (RAC), per fundamental heat exchanger and system modelling. For this paper, microchannel condenser and evaporator models were developed, using a segment-to-segment modelling approach. The microchannel heat exchanger models were integrated to a system design model. The system model is able to predict the performance indices, such as cooling capacity, efficiency, sensible heat ratio, etc. Using the calibrated system and heat exchanger models, we evaluated numerous low GWP (global warming potential) refrigerants. The predicted system performance indices, e.g. cooling efficiency, compressor discharge temperature, and required compressor displacement volume etc., are compared. Suitable replacements for R22 and R-410A for the room air conditioner application are recommended.

  7. Modeling a foreign exchange rate using moving average of Yen-Dollar market data

    CERN Document Server

    Mizuno, T; Takayasu, M

    2005-01-01

    We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange market. These feedbacks are responsible for a power law distribution and characteristic autocorrelations of rate changes.

  8. Empirical evidence against the exchange rate anomaly: the Australian case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis A. Gil-Alana

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Though there is widespread agreement that the logarithmic spot and forward rates are both integrated of order one (I(1 variables, so that their corresponding returns are I(0 stationary, it has been recently claimed that they may be long memory. In this article, we examine this hypothesis by means of fractional integration techniques. The results based on parametric and semiparametric tests show that though fractional degrees of integration are plausible alternatives, the confidence intervals include the unit root case in both series. In addition, the hypothesis of unbiasedness of the forward rate as a forecaster for the future spot rate cannot be rejected for the Australian daily exchange rate market.Embora haja um acordo difundido de que o ponto logarítmico e as taxas para frente são ambas integradas de variáveis da ordem um (I(1, de modo que seus retornos correspondentes sejam I(0 estacionário, tem-se reivindicado recentemente que elas podem ser memória longa. Neste artigo, examinamos esta hipótese por meio do uso de técnicas fracionárias de integração. Os resultados baseados em testes paramétricos e semiparametricos mostram que embora os graus fracionários de integração sejam alternativas plausíveis, os intervalos de confiança incluem o caso da raiz unitária em ambas as séries. Além disso, a hipótese de não viés da taxa para frente como um preditor para a taxa a vista futura não pode ser rejeitada para o caso australiano.

  9. Air-water gas exchange and CO2 flux in a mangrove-dominated estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, David T.; Ferrón, Sara; Engel, Victor C.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Barr, Jordan G.

    2014-01-01

    forests are highly productive ecosystems, but the fate of mangrove-derived carbon remains uncertain. Part of that uncertainty stems from the fact that gas transfer velocities in mangrove-surrounded waters are not well determined, leading to uncertainty in air-water CO2 fluxes. Two SF6 tracer release experiments were conducted to determine gas transfer velocities (k(600) = 8.3 ± 0.4 and 8.1 ± 0.6 cm h-1), along with simultaneous measurements of pCO2 to determine the air-water CO2 fluxes from Shark River, Florida (232.11 ± 23.69 and 171.13 ± 20.28 mmol C m-2 d-1), an estuary within the largest contiguous mangrove forest in North America. The gas transfer velocity results are consistent with turbulent kinetic energy dissipation measurements, indicating a higher rate of turbulence and gas exchange than predicted by commonly used wind speed/gas exchange parameterizations. The results have important implications for carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems.

  10. Air-water gas exchange and CO2 flux in a mangrove-dominated estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, David T.; Ferrón, Sara; Engel, Victor C.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Barr, Jordan G.

    2014-01-01

    Mangrove forests are highly productive ecosystems, but the fate of mangrove-derived carbon remains uncertain. Part of that uncertainty stems from the fact that gas transfer velocities in mangrove-surrounded waters are not well determined, leading to uncertainty in air-water CO2 fluxes. Two SF6 tracer release experiments were conducted to determine gas transfer velocities (k(600) = 8.3 ± 0.4 and 8.1 ± 0.6 cm h−1), along with simultaneous measurements of pCO2 to determine the air-water CO2 fluxes from Shark River, Florida (232.11 ± 23.69 and 171.13 ± 20.28 mmol C m−2 d−1), an estuary within the largest contiguous mangrove forest in North America. The gas transfer velocity results are consistent with turbulent kinetic energy dissipation measurements, indicating a higher rate of turbulence and gas exchange than predicted by commonly used wind speed/gas exchange parameterizations. The results have important implications for carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems.

  11. A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF ELEMENTAL MERCURY AIR/WATER EXCHANGE PARTNERS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although evasion of elemental mercury from aquatic systems can significantly deplete net mercury accumulation resulting from atmospheric deposition, the current ability to model elemental mercury air/water exchange is limited by uncertainties in our understanding of all gaseous a...

  12. Surfactant control of air-sea gas exchange across contrasting biogeochemical regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Ryan; Schneider-Zapp, Klaus; Upstill-Goddard, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Air-sea gas exchange is important to the global partitioning of CO2.Exchange fluxes are products of an air-sea gas concentration difference, ΔC, and a gas transfer velocity, kw. The latter is controlled by the rate of turbulent diffusion at the air-sea interface but it cannot be directly measured and has a high uncertainty that is now considered one of the greatest challenges to quantifying net global air-sea CO2 exchange ...(Takahashi et al., 2009). One important control on kw is exerted by sea surface surfactants that arise both naturally from biological processes and through anthropogenic activity. They influence gas exchange in two fundamental ways: as a monolayer physical barrier and through modifying sea surface hydrodynamics and hence turbulent energy transfer. These effects have been demonstrated in the laboratory with artificial surfactants ...(Bock et al., 1999; Goldman et al., 1988) and through purposeful surfactant releases in coastal waters .(.).........().(Brockmann et al., 1982) and in the open ocean (Salter et al., 2011). Suppression of kwin these field experiments was ~5-55%. While changes in both total surfactant concentration and the composition of the natural surfactant pool might be expected to impact kw, the required in-situ studies are lacking. New data collected from the coastal North Sea in 2012-2013 shows significant spatio-temporal variability in the surfactant activity of organic matter within the sea surface microlayer that ranges from 0.07-0.94 mg/L T-X-100 (AC voltammetry). The surfactant activities show a strong winter/summer seasonal bias and general decrease in concentration with increasing distance from the coastline possibly associated with changing terrestrial vs. phytoplankton sources. Gas exchange experiments of this seawater using a novel laboratory tank and gas tracers (CH4 and SF6) demonstrate a 12-45% reduction in kw compared to surfactant-free water. Seasonally there is higher gas exchange suppression in the summer

  13. Exchange rate exposure of firms and the demand for foreign exchange derivatives in Brazil: did hedge or speculatiom matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines empirically how the demand of foreign exchange derivatives by Brazilian corporations is related to their exchange rate exposure. With the help of an original database of 74,567 contracts written from 1999 to 2002 between corporations and financial institutions, we were able to identify the corporations that speculated and the ones that hedged with foreign exchange derivatives during this period. Our results show that the exchange rate exposure is positively related to the foreign operational exposures for firms that speculated and negatively related for firms that hedged in 2002. For the other years of the sample period, speculation or hedge did not affect the relationship between the exchange rate exposure and the foreign operational exposure of firms.

  14. Simultaneous heat and mass transfer to air from a compact heat exchanger with water spray precooling and surface deluge cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Various methods are available to enhance heat exchanger performance with evaporative cooling. In this study, evaporative mist precooling, deluge cooling, and combined cooling schemes are examined experimentally and compared to model predictions. A flexible model of a compact, finned-tube heat exchanger with a wetted surface is developed by applying the governing conservation and rate equations and invoking the heat and mass transfer analogy. The model is applicable for dry, partially wet, or fully wet surface conditions and capable of predicting local heat/mass transfer, wetness condition, and pressure drop of the heat exchanger. Experimental data are obtained from wind tunnel experiments using a louver-fin flat-tube heat exchanger with single-phase tube-side flow. Total capacity, pressure drop, and water drainage behavior under various water usage rates and air face velocities are analyzed and compared to data for dry-surface conditions. A heat exchanger partitioning method for evaporative cooling is introduced to study partially wet surface conditions, as part of a consistent and general method for interpreting wet-surface performance data. The heat exchanger is partitioned into dry and wet portions by introducing a wet surface factor. For the wet part, the enthalpy potential method is used to determine the air-side sensible heat transfer coefficient. Thermal and hydraulic performance is compared to empirical correlations. Total capacity predictions from the model agree with the experimental results with an average deviation of 12.6%. The model is also exercised for four water augmentation schemes; results support operating under a combined mist precooling and deluge cooling scheme. -- Highlights: • A new spray-cooled heat exchanger model is presented and is validated with data. • Heat duty is shown to be asymptotic with spray flow rate. • Meaningful heat transfer coefficients for partially wet conditions are obtained. • Colburn jwet is lower than jdry

  15. Rate constants for chemical reactions in high-temperature nonequilibrium air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, R. L.

    1986-01-01

    In the nonequilibrium atmospheric chemistry regime that will be encountered by the proposed Aeroassisted Orbital Transfer Vehicle in the upper atmosphere, where air density is too low for thermal and chemical equilibrium to be maintained, the detailed high temperature air chemistry plays a critical role in defining radiative and convective heating loads. Although vibrational and electronic temperatures remain low (less than 15,000 K), rotational and translational temperatures may reach 50,000 K. Attention is presently given to the effects of multiple temperatures on the magnitudes of various chemical reaction rate constants, for the cases of both bimolecular exchange reactions and collisional excitation and dissociation reactions.

  16. Impacts of air-sea exchange coefficients on snowfall events over the Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jung-Yoon; Kwon, Young Cheol

    2016-08-01

    Snowfall over the Korean Peninsula is mainly associated with air mass transformation by the fluxes across the air-sea interface during cold-air outbreaks over the warm Yellow Sea. The heat and momentum exchange coefficients in the surface flux parameterization are key parameters of flux calculations across the air-sea interface. This study investigates the effects of the air-sea exchange coefficients on the simulations of snowfall events over the Korean Peninsula using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two snowfall cases are selected for this study. One is a heavy snowfall event that took place on January 4, 2010, and the other is a light snowfall event that occurred on December 23-24, 2011. Several sensitivity tests are carried out with increased and decreased heat and momentum exchange coefficients. The domain-averaged precipitation is increased (decreased) with increased (decreased) heat exchange coefficient because the increased (decreased) surface heat flux leads to more (less) moist conditions in the low level of the atmosphere. On the other hand, the domain-averaged precipitation is decreased (increased) with increased (decreased) momentum exchange coefficient because the increased (decreased) momentum coefficient causes reduction (increase) of wind speed and heat flux. The variation of precipitation in the heat exchange coefficient experiments is much larger than that in the momentum exchange coefficient experiments because the change of heat flux has a more direct impact on moisture flux and snowfall amount, while the change of momentum flux has a rather indirect impact via wind speed changes. The low-pressure system is intensified and moves toward North when the heat exchange coefficient is increased because warming and moistening of the lower atmosphere contributes to destabilize the air mass, resulting in the change of precipitation pattern over the Korean Peninsula in the heat exchange coefficient experiments.

  17. Exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the Euro area

    OpenAIRE

    Campa, José Manuel; Linda S. Goldberg; José M. González-Mínguez

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical analysis of transmission rates from exchange rate movements to import prices, across countries and product categories, in the euro area over the last fifteen years. Our results show that the transmission of exchange rate changes to import prices in the short run is high, although incomplete, and that it differs across industries and countries; in the long run, exchange rate pass-through is higher and close to one. We find no strong statistical evidence that th...

  18. Explaining Exchange Rate Movements in New Member States of the European Union: Nominal and Real Convergence

    OpenAIRE

    Monika Blaszkiewicz-Schwartzman

    2007-01-01

    This paper uses the univariate and bivariate structural VAR variance framework to quantify real and nominal exchange rate volatility in the selective New Member States of the European Union, and identify factors responsible for movements of those rates. The scale and the nature of nominal and real exchange rate volatility are tightly linked to fulfilment of Maastricht criteria, real convergence, and the effectiveness of the nominal exchange rate in absorbing asymmetric real shocks. Given that...

  19. Australian Universities' Strategic Goals of Student Exchange and Participation Rates in Outbound Exchange Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Amanda; Barker, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    International student exchange programmes are acknowledged as one aspect of a broader suite of internationalisation strategies aimed at enhancing students' intercultural understanding and competence. The decision to participate in an exchange programme is dependent on both individual and contextual factors such as student exchange policies and…

  20. A Comparison of the Monetary Model and Artificial Neural Networks in Exchange Rate Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Filiz Ozkan

    2012-01-01

    Exchange value is one of the significant tools for investors in decision making. Since exchange values are volatile and they change within short periods, investors need an effective method to minimize the risk. This study compares the prediction performances of artificial neural networks, which is recently being used as an effective tool of prediction, and the monetary model, which is one of the methods to predict structural exchange rates. In this study exchange rates of Turkish Lira against...

  1. Experimental investigations of the sodium/air heat exchanger with natural draught chimney for the EFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In a first series of experiments in the new large sodium experimental plant ILONA, the post-shutdown heat removal system for the European Fast Breeder Reactor EFR developed by Interatom and working by natural convection was tested. The air-side flow in the heat exchanger and chimney was optimized in extensive model experiments and the results were taken into account in the construction of the Na/air heat exchanger in the ILONA. A considerable increase in output was achieved, compared to the design, based on the flow model experiments for the ILONA heat exchanger. (orig.)

  2. Greenhouse Gas Growth Rates from AIRS Hyperspectral Radiance Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strow, L. L.; Desouza-Machado, S. G.; Hannon, S.; Imbiriba, B.; Schou, P.

    2009-12-01

    The AIRS seven year hyperspectral radiance record provides an ideal platform for measurings growth rates of infrared active minor gases, especially carbon dioxide and methane. The largest changes in CLARREO radiances will likely be due to increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We have produced a 5+ year record of almost cloud-free AIRS radiances, from which we have derived the radiance anomaly and linear time rate of change. The source of these radiances are the L1b radiances corrected for small frequency drifts. Growth rates of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and CFC11 are simultaneously derived from zonal averages of these radiance rates for tropics, and mid-latitude northern and southern hemispheres. The effective linear rate of change of ~5 layers of water vapor and temperature, plus the surface temperature are also simultaneously derived with the minor gas rates. No model data or prior is needed and more than 1000 channels are used in the fit. Sampling issues may preclude the use of the mid-latitude temperature and water vapor rates for climate analysis, but possibly not for the tropics. The resulting greenhouse gas growth rates agree very well with in-situ measurements, which suggests high radiometric stability for AIRS. Radiance intercomparisons for climate analysis between IASI and AIRS will also be presented.

  3. Processes of Ammonia Air-Surface Exchange in a Fertilized Zea Mays Canopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent incorporation of coupled soil biogeochemical and bi-directional NH3 air-surface exchange algorithms into regional air quality models holds promise for further reducing uncertainty in estimates of NH3 emissions from fertilized soils. While this advancement represents a sig...

  4. Thermal Sizing of Heat Exchanger Tubes for Air Natural Convective Cooling System of Emergency Cooling Tank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For the long operation of secondary passive cooling system, however, water level goes down by evaporation in succession at emergency cooling tank. At the end there would be no place to dissipate heat from condensation heat exchanger. Therefore, steam cooling heat exchanger is put on the top of emergency cooling tank to maintain appropriate water level by collecting evaporating steam. Steam cooling heat exchanger is installed inside an air chimney and evaporated steam is cooled down by air natural convection. In this study, thermal sizing of steam cooling heat exchanger under air natural convection was conducted by TSCON program for the design of experimental setup as shown in Fig. 2. Thermal sizing of steam cooling heat exchanger tube under air natural convection was conducted by TSCON program for the design of experimental setup. 25 - 1' tubes which has a length 1687 mm was determined as steam cooling heat exchanger at 2 kW heat load and 100 liter water pool in emergency cooling tank (experimental limit condition). The corresponding width of two tubes is 50 mm and has 5 by 5 tube array for heat exchanger

  5. Air-Cooled Heat Exchanger for High-Temperature Power Electronics: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waye, S. K.; Lustbader, J.; Musselman, M.; King, C.

    2015-05-06

    This work demonstrates a direct air-cooled heat exchanger strategy for high-temperature power electronic devices with an application specific to automotive traction drive inverters. We present experimental heat dissipation and system pressure curves versus flow rate for baseline and optimized sub-module assemblies containing two ceramic resistance heaters that provide device heat fluxes. The maximum allowable junction temperature was set to 175 deg.C. Results were extrapolated to the inverter scale and combined with balance-of-inverter components to estimate inverter power density and specific power. The results exceeded the goal of 12 kW/L and 12 kW/kg for power density and specific power, respectively.

  6. The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Charles Engel; James Morley

    2001-01-01

    The purchasing power parity puzzle relates to the adjustment of real exchange rates. Real exchange rates are extremely volatile, suggesting that temporary shocks emanate from the monetary sector. But the half-life of real exchange rate deviations is extremely large -- 2.5 to 5 years. This half-life seems too large to be explained by the slow adjustment of nominal prices. We offer a different interpretation. We maintain that nominal exchange rates and prices need not converge at the same rate,...

  7. The impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on bank’s returns and volatility: Evidence from Tunisian

    OpenAIRE

    Aloui Mouna; M. Jarboui Anis

    2013-01-01

    This study specially investigates the effect of the market index, interest rate and foreign exchange rate risk on Tunisian banks stock returns using the OLS and GARCH estimation models. These results suggest that exchange rate and market index have an impact and an important role in determining the dynamics on the conditional bank stock return. However, interest rates do not appear to be significant factors in the Tunisian bank return. The results further indicate that long-return interest ra...

  8. Balloons and Bottles: Activities on Air-Sea Heat Exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphree, Tom

    1998-01-01

    Presents an activity designed to demonstrate how heating and cooling an air mass affects its temperature, volume, density, and pressure. Illustrates how thermal energy can cause atmospheric motion such as expansion, contraction, and winds. (Author/WRM)

  9. Micrometeorological Measurement of Fetch- and Atmospheric Stability-Dependent Air- Water Exchange of Legacy Semivolatile Organic Contaminants in Lake Superior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlinger, J. A.; Tobias, D. E.; Rowe, M. D.

    2008-12-01

    Coastal waters including the Laurentian Great Lakes are particularly susceptible to local, regional, and long- range transport and deposition of semivolatile organic contaminants (SOCs) as gases and/or associated with particles. Recently-marketed SOCs can be expected to undergo net deposition in surface waters, whereas legacy SOCs such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are likely to be at equilibrium with respect to air-water exchange, or, if atmospheric concentrations decrease through, e.g., policy implementation, to undergo net gas emission. SOC air-water exchange flux is usually estimated using the two-film model. This model describes molecular diffusion through the air and water films adjacent to the air-water interface. Air-water exchange flux is estimated as the product of SOC fugacity, typically based on on-shore gaseous concentration measurements, and a transfer coefficient, the latter which is estimated from SOC properties and environmental conditions. The transfer coefficient formulation commonly applied neglects resistance to exchange in the internal boundary layer under atmospherically stable conditions, and the use of on-shore gaseous concentration neglects fetch-dependent equilibration, both of which will tend to cause overestimation of flux magnitude. Thus, for legacy chemicals or in any highly contaminated surface water, the rate at which the water is cleansed through gas emission tends to be over-predicted using this approach. Micrometeorological measurement of air-water exchange rates of legacy SOCs was carried out on ships during four transect experiments during off-shore flow in Lake Superior using novel multicapillary collection devices and thermal extraction technology to measure parts-per-quadrillion SOC levels. Employing sensible heat in the modified Bowen ratio, fluxes at three over-water stations along the transects were measured, along with up-wind, onshore gaseous concentration and aqueous concentration. The atmosphere was unstable for

  10. A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Vilela Vieira

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (fixed and random effects for the real exchange rate in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We provide an alternative set of estimates of RER misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated real exchange rate helps (harms long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

  11. The Influence of International Parity on the Exchange Rate: Purchasing Power Parity and International Fisher Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Oana Mionel

    2012-01-01

    This article assesses the impact of the inflation and interest rates on the exchange rates. The analysis tests the relation between the inflation rate and the exchange rate by applying the Purchasing Power Parity Theory, while the relation between the interest rate and the inflation rate is tested by applying the International Fisher Effect Theory. In order to test the Purchasing Power Parity the study takes into account the period of time between 1990 – 2009, and the following countries – th...

  12. What's on their mind: do exchange rate forecasters stick to theoretical models?

    OpenAIRE

    Schröder, Michael; Dornau, Robert

    1999-01-01

    Do financial market analysts use structural economic models when forecasting exchange rates? This is the leading question analysed in this paper. In contrast to other studies we use expectations data instead of observable variables. Therefore we analyse the implicit structural models forecasters have in mind when forming their exchange rate expectations. The economic exchange rate models included in our study are purchasing power parity, the flexible-price monetary model, the sticky-price mon...

  13. An exchange rate determination model for central banks' interventions in financial markets

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林浚清; 黄祖辉; 战明华

    2002-01-01

    We establish an exchange rate determination model for central banks' in terventions in financial markets. The model shows that central banks can adjust exchange rate by several policy instruments and that different instruments may h ave different effects on exchange rate determination. It specifies potential pol icy instruments for central banks as well as their policy effects. Based on thes e effects, feasible matches of policy instruments in contingent intervention are put forth.

  14. Can The Markov Switching Model with Time Varying Transition Probabilities Forecast Exchange Rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Bong-Han Kim; Joong-Haeng Lee

    2001-01-01

    We use Lee's (1991) Markov switching model with time varying transition probabilities (the TVTP Markov model) to analyze the behavior of the U.S. dollar/ British Pound exchange rate. We employ the magnitude of the deviation of the exchange rate from a monetary equilibrium value as the economic fundamental with which the transition probabilities vary. The empirical results we obtained from this paper are the following: first, the deviation of the exchange rate from a monetary equilibrium value...

  15. The real exchange rate of an oil exporting economy: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Suleiman, Hassan; Muhammad, Zahid

    2011-01-01

    In this study the long-run relationship between real oil price, real effective exchange rate and productivity differentials is examined using annual data for Nigeria over the period 1980 to 2010. We aim to investigate whether oil price fluctuations and productivity differentials affect the real effective exchange rate. The empirical results suggest that whereas real oil price exercise a significant positive effect on the real exchange rate in the long run. Productivity differentials exercise ...

  16. Hedging and invoicing strategies to reduce exchange rate exposure - a euro-area perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Björn Döhring

    2008-01-01

    Domestic-currency invoicing and hedging allow internationally active firms to reduce their exposure to exchange rate variations. This paper argues that domestic-currency invoicing and hedging with exchange rate derivatives allow a fairly straightforward management of transaction and translation risk. Broader economic risk (which takes into account the impact of the exchange rate on competitiveness) is by its very nature harder to manage, but the paper argues that natural hedging provides poss...

  17. Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in the Euro area: New evidence from smooth transition models

    OpenAIRE

    Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the presence of asymmetric behavior in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to CPI inflation in 12 euro area (EA) countries. Using a class of nonlinear smooth transition models, the author tests for asymmetry with respect to the direction and the magnitude of exchange rate changes. On the one hand, the author finds only 5 out of 12 EA countries showing asymmetric pass-through related to exchange rate appreciations and depreciations. Results are somewhat mixed with no clear ev...

  18. Exchange Rate Exposure and Risk Management: The case of Japanese Exporting Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Takatoshi Ito; Satoshi Koibuchi; Kiyotaka Sato; Junko Shimizu

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between the Japanese firms’ exposure to the exchange rate risk and risk management, such as choice of invoicing currency, and financial and operational hedge. The firm’s exposure to the exchange rate risk is estimated by co-movements of the stock prices and exchange rates, following Dominguez (1998) and others. Data on risk management measures—financial and operational hedging, the choice of invoice currency and the price revision strategy (pass-throug...

  19. Volatility spillovers between stock prices and exchange rates: empiral evidence from six APEC economies

    OpenAIRE

    Morales, Lucia; O'Donnell, Mary

    2006-01-01

    This paper set out to examine the volatility linkages between stock returns and exchange rates in a number of East Asian markets. Overall, our main results indicate that since the Asian financial crises, there exists significant scope for investors and portfolio managers to diversify their assets between stocks and currencies in these markets. In particular, the lack of volatility spillovers between stock markets and exchange rates, and between exchange rates and stock markets in all countri...

  20. Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a FAVAR Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Dreger, Christian; Fidrmuc, Jarko

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the last dec-ade (1999-2010). Evidence is based on country VARs augmented by a regional com-mon factor structure (FAVAR model). The models include nominal exchange rates, the common factor of exchange rates in the CIS countries, and international drivers such as global trade, share prices, and oil price. Global, regional and idiosyncrati...

  1. Exchange Rate Exposure and Its Determinants: A Firm and Industry Analysis of the UK Companies

    OpenAIRE

    He, Jiao

    2010-01-01

    This study assesses whether the unexpected exchange rate movements volatilize the UK firms’ stock return based on the firm- and industry-level analysis, and examines whether the magnitude of the exchange rate exposure is determined by the firm-specific factors. Using a sample of 244 UK companies listed in the FTSE 350 during the test period between December 1999 and December 2009, the result documents that the exchange rate fluctuation does affect the firm value. Among the five introduced ex...

  2. Exchange rate determination of TL/US$: a co-integration approach

    OpenAIRE

    Levent, Korap

    2008-01-01

    In our paper, we investigate exchange rate determination mechanism of TL/US$ for the 1987Q1-2006Q4 period using quarterly observations. Following a large literature review, we first highlight various approaches explaining monetary model exchange rate determination based on economic fundamentals, and then, construct an empirical model revealing both long-run stationary relationships and short-run dynamic adjustment processes of the nominal exchange rate for the Turkish economy. Our findings em...

  3. Macroeconomic effects of nominal exchange rate regimes: new insights into the role of price dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Kollmann, Robert

    2005-01-01

    This Paper analyses the effects of pegged and floating exchange rates using a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model that is calibrated to the US and a European aggregate. The model assumes shocks to money, productivity and the interest parity condition. It captures the fact that the sharp increase in nominal exchange rate volatility after the abandonment of the Bretton Woods (BW) system was accompanied by a commensurate rise in real exchange rate volatility, but had no pronounced effe...

  4. The source of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand: Real shock or nominal shock

    OpenAIRE

    Le Thanh, Binh

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the source of exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand. We employed a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model with the long-run neutrality restriction of Blanchard and Quah (1989) to investigate the changes in real and nominal exchange rates from 1994 to 2015. In this paper, we assume that there are two types of shocks which related to exchange rate movements: real shocks and nominal shocks. The empirical analysis indicates that real shocks are the fundamental compon...

  5. Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Explain the Backus-Smith Puzzle? Evidence from the Eurozone

    OpenAIRE

    M. Hadzi-Vaskov

    2007-01-01

    The negative correlation between relative consumption growth and real exchange rate changes is a recurrent puzzle in international macroeconomics (Backus and Smith, 1993). Using panel dataset with quarterly observations for all 12 countries from the Eurozone after the introduction of the common currency (1999-2006), this paper demonstrates that the nominal exchange rate is the main source of the puzzle. When nominal exchange rates fluctuations are eliminated, relative consumption growth is po...

  6. Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation

    OpenAIRE

    Stanley Fischer

    1984-01-01

    The recent appreciation of the dollar is widely believed to have reduced the output costs of the disinflation. But there remains the question of whether those early gains have to be repaid when the exchange rate depreciates.The first question taken up is the effect of real exchange rate appreciation on the sacrifice ratio, or output cost, of disinflation. There is no unambiguous presumption that exchange rate appreciation reduces the sacrifice ratio. The direct favorable effects of cheaper im...

  7. Fundamental determinants of the long run real exchange rate: The case of Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Hungnes, Håvard

    2003-01-01

    Modelling the Norwegian exchange rate against a basket of currencies, we find a robust long-term link between the real exchange rate and real interest differential that is consistent with purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP). However, PPP alone is rejected. These findings are confirmed focusing on the Norwegian bilateral exchange rate with Germany and (possibly) Sweden, but rejected against the UK and the US. We argue that rejection of bilateral relationships may ...

  8. Exchange rate risk in Automobile Industry: An Empirical Study on Swedish, French and German Multinational Companies.

    OpenAIRE

    Barumwete, Lyna Alami; Rao, Feiyi

    2008-01-01

    Recently, both company executives as well as national media have claimed that short currency exchange rate fluctuations are negatively affecting the stock returns of certain firms. However, most previous studies focusing on companies in the US and Asia have been unable to find empirical support for a statistically significant linkage between firm value and exchange rate risk. By using a quantitative method with a deductive approach,the present research investigates if currency exchange rate m...

  9. Volatility Transmission between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices in Indonesia post 1997 Asia Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Anhar Fauzan Priyono; Arief Bustaman

    2014-01-01

    Volatility of Indonesia Rupiah and Jakarta Composite Index remain one of main issues in Indonesia economy after 1997 Asian crisis. The objectives of this research are (1) determining the volatility of Indonesia Rupiah to US Dollar exchange rates and Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and (2) analysing the dynamic volatility transmission between exchange rates and JCI. Exchange rate and JCI volatility were measured using GJR-GARCH approach. Estimated using VAR model, this study found that current v...

  10. Is China's Exchange Rate Policy a Form of Trade Protection?

    OpenAIRE

    ANTHONY J. MAKIN

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines how China's heavily managed exchange rate contributes to its huge trade surplus with its major trading partners, most notably the United States. Based on the distinction between economies’ aggregate output and expenditure and on the premise that exchange rates are shared variables, it develops a straightforward framework that shows how exchange rate management by China's central bank affects China's fast growing output, expenditure, employment, and trade balance, while sim...

  11. Forecasting Exchange Rate Density Using Parametric Models: the Case of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Miranda Tabak

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs a recently developed parametric technique to obtain density forecasts for the Brazilian exchange rate, using the exchange rate options market. Empirical results suggest that the option market contains useful information about future exchange rate density. These results suggests that density forecasts using options markets may add value for portfolio and risk management, and may be useful for financial regulators to assess financial stability.

  12. Optimal Exchange Rate Regimes: Turning Mundell-Fleming's Dictum on its Head

    OpenAIRE

    Amartya Lahiri; Rajesh Singh; Carlos A. Vegh

    2007-01-01

    A famous dictum in open economy macroeconomics -- which obtains in the Mundell-Fleming world of sticky prices and perfect capital mobility -- holds that the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime should depend on the type of shock hitting the economy. If shocks are predominantly real, a flexible exchange rate is optimal, whereas if shocks are mainly monetary, a fixed exchange rate is optimal. There is no obvious reason, however, why this paradigm should be the most appropriate one to thin...

  13. ON THE CURRENT RMB EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AFFECTING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄燕君

    2001-01-01

    The current exchange rate regime of China is just like the US dollar-pegged exchange rate regime, which weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy but increases the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Since the scope of implementing the fiscal policy is quite narrow, it is necessary to promote the effectiveness of monetary policy by enlarging the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate regime so as to stimulate the rapid development of the Chinese economy effectively.

  14. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: How to Solve the Puzzles

    OpenAIRE

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US dollar following domestic monetary tightening.Forward discount bias puzzle is the failure of empirical research to find results consistent with the requirement that if uncovered interest parity holds...

  15. EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO DOMESTIC PRICES: THE CASE OF COLOMBIA

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Rowland

    2004-01-01

    This study uses two different econometric frameworks to study exchange rate passthrough to import, producer and consumer prices in Colombia. Both frameworks are based on vector autoregressive (VAR) models, the first using an unrestricted VAR model, and the second using the Johansen framework of multivariate cointegration. Exchange rate pass-through is shown to be incomplete. Import prices, nevertheless, respond quickly to an exchange rate change, where some 80 percent of such a change is pass...

  16. Purchasing Power Parity and ARIMA Models in Forecasting Exchange Rates: The Case of Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Hasan Vergil; Filiz Ozkan

    2007-01-01

    This study aims to forecast the exchange rates of Turkey by using the Purchasing Power Parity theory (PPP) and its competitor the ARIMA models and compare their forecasting powers. In doing so, the models are estimated using the monthly real exchange rate data between Turkish Lira and Turkey's five biggest trading partners (The USA, Germany, England, France and Italy) for the period 1980- 2003 and using the monthly real exchange rate data between Turkish Lira and European Union for the period...

  17. Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan: Evidence from Purchasing Power Parity Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Qayyum, Abdul; Khan, Arshad; Zaman, Kair-u

    2004-01-01

    In this study we have tested the validity of purchasing power parity hypothesis and exchange rate misalignment for Pakistan over the period 1982Q2-2002Q4. From the empirical analysis we can say that nominal exchange rate is cointegrated with WPI ratio. The cointegration coefficient between nominal exchange rate and the WPI-based price ratio is close to one. Furthermore, the coefficient restrictions are tested using maximum likelihood ratio statistic, lend support for the validity of the long-...

  18. Sulfuric Acid and Ammonia Generation by Bipolar Membranes Electrodialysis: Transport Rate Model for Ion and Water through Anion Exchange Membrane

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Xiaoyan; Lu, Wenhua; Ren, HongYan; Cong, Wei

    2008-01-01

    Regeneration of sulfuric acid and ammonia from ammonium sulfate by bipolar membrane electrodialysis (BMED) coupling with stripping ammonia by air-blowing was studied. The result showed that it was feasible to regenerate sulfuric acid and ammonia from ammonium sulfate solution using this method. Empirical models to describe the ion and water transport behaviors through anion exchange membrane for BMED system were successfully developed. The models were valid to evaluate water transport rate an...

  19. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

  20. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area; The Role of Asymmetric Pricing Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Hamid Faruqee

    2004-01-01

    Exchange rate pass-through in a set of euro area prices along the pricing chain is examined. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach, the empirics analyze the joint time-series behavior of the euro exchange rate and a system of euro-area prices in response to an exchange rate shock. The impulse-response functions from the VAR estimates are used to identify-in a 'new open economy macroeconomics model'-those key behavioral parameters that best replicate the pattern of exchange rate pass-th...

  1. Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Hong Kong

    OpenAIRE

    Li-gang Liu; Andrew Tsang

    2008-01-01

    This paper estimates pass-through of exchange rate changes to domestic inflation in Hong Kong in a two-step approach. We first estimate exchange rate pass-through to import prices and then from import price to domestic inflation using a Phillips-Curve model. We find that Hong Kong¡¦s exchange rate pass-through to import prices is relatively high compared to the OECD average, although Hong Kong also witnessed a decline of pass-through after 1991. With respect to exchange rate pass-through to d...

  2. How Much to Commit to an Exchange Rate Rule? Balancing Credibility and Flexibility How Much to Commit to an Exchange Rate Rule? Balancing Credibility and Flexibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nissan Liviatan

    1992-03-01

    Full Text Available How Much to Commit to an Exchange Rate Rule? Balancing Credibility and Flexibility There are different ways in which policy-makers back their commitment to a fixed exchange rate. A regime where countries can devalue unilaterally represents a weaker commitment than one where a devaluation needs to be agreed upon with other parties (e.g. the European monetary system. Full dollarization, understood here as full replacement of the domestic currency by the U.S. dollar, is an extreme commitment to a fixed exchange rate. Indeed, it is a especial case of a fixed exchange rate.The central message of this paper is that the cost of reneging is a key reason holding policymakers back from making strong commitments on their exchange rate policy. The stronger the commitment to an exchange rate rule, the more costly it is to deviate from it. The paper develops a Barro-Gordon type model in which the policymaker has to decide the degree of commitment under uncertainty.It is shown that, even for policy makers that have a strong preference for maintaining the fixed exchange rate, there are circunstances under which they will choose to devalue. This will happen when the economy is hit by an adverse shock and the costs of adhering to the fixed exchange rate are larger than those associated with devaluing.The model provides useful insights to understand why many high inflation economies have not adopted full dollarizarion as a way to stabilize prices. Our emphasis on the cost of reneging stands in contrast with most existing works, which single out the desire to rely on seigniorage as the main motive for stopping short of full dollarization. Strong commitments will only be made once there is a good chance that the policy maker will not renege, and by then they might not be necessary. We illustrate the main points of the paper with examples from Latin American countries.

  3. Dynamic interactions between the ground heat exchanger and environments in earth–air tunnel ventilation of buildings

    OpenAIRE

    Gan, Guohui

    2014-01-01

    Earth–air tunnel ventilation is an energy efficient method of preheating or cooling of supply air to abuilding. The purposes of this study are to investigate the performance of earth–air heat exchangersunder varying soil and atmosphere conditions and the interactions between the heat exchanger andenvironments. A computer program has been developed for simulation of the thermal performance of anearth–air heat exchanger for preheating and cooling of supply air, taking account of dynamic variati...

  4. Measuring Outdoor Air Intake Rates into Existing Building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William; Sullivan, Douglas; Cohen, Sebastian; Han, Hwataik

    2009-04-16

    Practical and accurate technologies are needed for continuously measuring and controlling outdoor air (OA) intake rates in commercial building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. This project evaluated two new measurement approaches. Laboratory experiments determined that OA flow rates were measurable with errors generally less than 10 percent using electronic air velocity probes installed between OA intake louver blades or at the outlet face of louvers. High accuracy was maintained with OA flow rates as low as 15 percent of the maximum for the louvers. Thus, with this measurement approach HVAC systems do not need separate OA intakes for minimum OA supply. System calibration parameters are required for each unique combination of louver type and velocity sensor location but calibrations are not necessary for each system installation. The research also determined that the accuracy of measuring OA flow rates with velocity probes located in the duct downstream of the intake louver was not improved by installing honeycomb airflow straighteners upstream of the probes. Errors varied with type of upstream louver, were as high as 100 percent, and were often greater than 25 percent. In conclusion, use of electronic air velocity probes between the blades of OA intake louvers or at the outlet face of louvers is a highly promising means of accurately measuring rates of OA flow into HVAC systems. The use of electronic velocity probes downstream of airflow straighteners is less promising, at least with the relatively small OA HVAC inlet systems employed in this research.

  5. Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Changes: The Cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia

    OpenAIRE

    Josifidis Kosta; Allegret Jean-Pierre; Beker-Pucar Emilija

    2009-01-01

    The paper explores (former) transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e exchange rate channel, interest rate ch...

  6. Improved air ventilation rate estimation based on a statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new approach to air ventilation rate estimation from CO measurement data is presented. The approach is based on a state-space dynamic statistical model, allowing for quick and efficient estimation. Underlying computations are based on Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is rather easy. The key property is the flexibility of the model, allowing various artificial regimens of CO level manipulation to be treated. The model is semi-parametric in nature and can efficiently handle time-varying ventilation rate. This is a major advantage, compared to some of the methods which are currently in practical use. After a formal introduction of the statistical model, its performance is demonstrated on real data from routine measurements. It is shown how the approach can be utilized in a more complex situation of major practical relevance, when time-varying air ventilation rate and radon entry rate are to be estimated simultaneously from concurrent radon and CO measurements

  7. Foreign exchange risk management : how are the largest non-financial companies in Norway managing their foreign exchange rate exposure?

    OpenAIRE

    Eriksen, Krister; Wedøe, Ola

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the largest non-financial companies in Norway manage their foreign exchange rate exposure. This is investigated through the use of a survey distributed to a sample the largest non-financial firms in Norway. According to our results, the largest non-financial companies in Norway have a predefined strategy for managing foreign exchange risk, which is defined by the board of directors or by the management in the organisation. The companies’ mai...

  8. Effect of Environmental Deflector on Air Exchange in Slurry Pit and Concentration Distribution in a Two-dimensional Ventilation Chamber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Guohong; Zhang, Guoqiang; Ravn, Peter; Rong, Li; Nielsen, Peter V.

    2008-01-01

    physics Lab, University of Aarhus. Ventilation rates used in the experiments were 100 and 200 m3/h. The experiment results showed that using the deflectors of 30°, 45° and 90° the airflow patterns were obviously changed in the room space near the slatted floor and in the head space of the pit compared...... with the setup without deflector. It was also found that of all the deflector angle performances with respect to air-exchange ratio and concentration distribution, the deflector position of 45° in two airflow rates cases behaved better with the lowest pit ventilation and the highest concentration in...... the head space....

  9. Anomalous exchange of deuterium implanted into an oxide ceramic for protium in air vapor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes an anomalous exchange of deuterium in an oxide ceramic, SrCe0.95Yb0.05O3-δ by protium in air-vapor. The ceramic specimen was implanted with 5 keV D2+ ion beam up to saturation at room temperature and exposed to normal air introduced into the vacuum chamber. It was eventually found by means of the elastic recoil detection technique that deuterium implanted was almost completely exchanged for protium which was included in the air-vapor. On the other hand, it was found in the vice versa case that no exchange of protium implanted into the ceramic for deterium in D2O vapor took place. The mechanism for such an anomalous isotope replacement is discussed. (orig.)

  10. Exchange rate dynamics, structural breaks, and central bank interventions in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Mario Uribe

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the effectiveness of the Colombian Central Bank´s interventions in the foreign exchange market during the period 2000 to 2014. We examine the stochastic process that describes the exchange rate, with a focus on the detection of structural breaks or unit roots in the data to determine whether the Central Bank´s interventions were effective. We find that the exchange rate can be described either by a random walk or by a trend-stationary model with multiple breaks. In neither cases do we find any evidence that the exchange rate was affected by the Central Bank interventions.

  11. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  12. Dynamic Linkages between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Iran and South Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Akbar Tavakoli; Masood Dadashi

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of present study is to analyze the relationship between stock and exchange markets in two Asian countries, Iran and South Korea. A monthly time series of stock price and exchange rate are used over the period 2002: 05 - 2012: 03. The data is collected from the Central Bank of each country and WDI. The calculated stock return and real exchange rate change are used in analysis. An econometric multiple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) BEKK metho...

  13. Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rate Movements in Oil-Exporting Countries: The Role of Institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Rickne, Johanna

    2009-01-01

    Political and legal institutions affect the extent to which the real exchange rates of oil-exporting countries co-move with the oil price. In a simple theoretical model, strong institutions insulate real exchange rates from oil price volatility by generating a smooth pattern of fiscal spending over the price cycle. Empirical tests on a panel of 33 oil-exporting countries provide evidence that countries with high bureaucratic quality and strong and impartial legal systems have real exchange ra...

  14. RATE LAW AND ITS MOMENT EXPRESSIONS FOR PELLICULAR ION EXCHANGE MATERIALS OF VARIOURS SHAPES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YangGengliang; ZhangXiaomin; 等

    1994-01-01

    In this paper,the kinetic moment expressions and rate laws are derived for pellicular ion exchange materials with various geometrical forms under the conditions that ion exchange rate is controlled by both the partical diffusion and the film diffusion in finite solution volume.In addition,for strong acidic cation ion exchange fibre,by using the equations obtained we calculated the partical diffusion coefficients and the transfer coefficients in the film under different experimental conditions.

  15. Pick Your Poison; The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Shigeru Iwata; Evan Tanner

    2003-01-01

    The authors characterize a country’s exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such responses, both contemporaneously and over time. Capital account shocks are further shown to affect output growth and inflation. The nature and magnitude of these effects may depend on the exchange ra...

  16. Field experiments yield new insights into gas exchange and excess air formation in natural porous media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klump, Stephan; Tomonaga, Yama; Kienzler, Peter; Kinzelbach, Wolfgang; Baumann, Thomas; Imboden, Dieter M.; Kipfer, Rolf

    2007-03-01

    Gas exchange between seepage water and soil air within the unsaturated and quasi-saturated zones is fundamentally different from gas exchange between water and gas across a free boundary layer, e.g., in lakes or rivers. In addition to the atmospheric equilibrium fraction, most groundwater samples contain an excess of dissolved atmospheric gases which is called "excess air". Excess air in groundwater is not only of crucial importance for the interpretation of gaseous environmental tracer data, but also for other aspects of groundwater hydrology, e.g., for oxygen availability in bio-remediation and in connection with changes in transport dynamics caused by the presence of entrapped air bubbles. Whereas atmospheric solubility equilibrium is controlled mainly by local soil temperature, the excess air component is characterized by the (hydrostatic) pressure acting on entrapped air bubbles within the quasi-saturated zone. Here we present the results of preliminary field experiments in which we investigated gas exchange and excess air formation in natural porous media. The experimental data suggest that the formation of excess air depends significantly on soil properties and on infiltration mechanisms. Excess air was produced by the partial dissolution of entrapped air bubbles during a sprinkling experiment in fine-grained sediments, whereas similar experiments conducted in coarse sand and gravel did not lead to the formation of excess air in the infiltrating water. Furthermore, the experiments revealed that the noble gas temperatures determined from noble gases dissolved in seepage water at different depths are identical to the corresponding in situ soil temperatures. This finding is important for all applications of noble gases as a paleotemperature indicator in groundwater since these applications are always based on the assumption that the noble gas temperature is identical to the (past) soil temperature.

  17. Exchange Market Pressure on the Pound-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1925-1931

    OpenAIRE

    C. Paul Hallwood; Ian W Marsh

    2003-01-01

    An investigation of exchange market pressure against the pound sterling during the inter-war period. The main findings are that a) the behavior of UK fundamentals relative to those of the USA help to explain exchange market pressure against the pound; b) during the run up to devaluation in September 1931 the monetary authorities in the UK were acting to reduce domestic credit; but that c) additional pressure was brought against the pound from speculative sources. These findings relate to curr...

  18. Floating Exchange Rate Regime and Changing Dynamics of the Foreign Exchange Market in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Senkan Aldemir

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the changes caused by the implementations of currency basket peg and floating exchange regime on domestic foreign exchange market dynamics through the estimation of weights for the reserve currencies in the currency basket. Elasticity coefficients of Turkish Lira against seven currencies were estimated for two sampling periods (1995:01-1999:07 and 2002:01-2008:01) using generalized vector autoregression method. The study focuses on Turkish economy. The s...

  19. Analysis on Foreign Exchange Rate Disputes Between China and America

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jia Zhengxiang

    2009-01-01

    With economic globalization being an unstoppable trend in the contemporary world, one country's foreign exchange policy has been playing a sig-nificant role in its economic development. In recent years, trade imbalances between U.S. and China are becoming particularly serious as their overall bilateral trade volume continually ballooned.

  20. Short-Run Determinants of the USD/MYR Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Yu Hsing

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines short-run determinants of the U.S. dollar/Malaysian ringgit (USD/MYR) exchange rate based on a simultaneous-equation model. Applying the EGARCH model, the paper finds that the USD/MYR exchange rate is positively associated with the Malaysian real government Treasury bill rate, U.S. real GDP, the Malaysian real stock index and the expected exchange rate and is negatively influenced by the U.S. real Treasury bill rate, Malaysian real GDP and the U.S. real stock index. The As...

  1. The relationship between the forward– and the realized spot exchange rate in South Africa / Petrus Marthinus Stephanus van Heerden

    OpenAIRE

    Van Heerden, Petrus Marthinus Stephanus

    2010-01-01

    The inability to effectively hedge against unfavourable exchange rate movements, using the current forward exchange rate as the only guideline, is a key inhibiting factor of international trade. Market participants use the current forward exchange rate quoted in the market to make decisions regarding future exchange rate changes. However, the current forward exchange rate is not solely determined by the interaction of demand and supply, but is also a mechanistic estimation, whi...

  2. Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Implications for the Central and Eastern European Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Horváth, Roman

    2005-01-01

    This paper estimates the medium-term determinants of the bilateral exchange rate variability and exchange rate pressures for 20 developed countries in the 1990s. The results suggest that optimum currency area criteria explain the dynamics of bilateral exchange rate variability and pressures, to a large extent. Next, we predict exchange rate volatility and pressures for the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). We find that CEECs encounter exchange rate pressures approximately at the...

  3. Tolerance Levels of Roadside Trees to Air Pollutants Based on Relative Growth Rate and Air Pollution Tolerance Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SULISTIJORINI

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Motor vehicles release carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and particulate matters to the air as pollutants. Vegetation can absorb these pollutants through gas exchange processes. The objective of this study was to examine the combination of the relative growth rate (RGR and physiological responses in determining tolerance levels of plant species to air pollutants. Physiological responses were calculated as air pollution tolerance index (APTI. Eight roadside tree species were placed at polluted (Jagorawi highway and unpolluted (Sindangbarang field area. Growth and physiological parameters of the trees were recorded, including plant height, leaf area, total ascorbate, total chlorophyll, leaf-extract pH, and relative water content. Scoring criteria for the combination of RGR and APTI method was given based on means of the two areas based on two-sample t test. Based on the total score of RGR and APTI, Lagerstroemia speciosa was categorized as a tolerant species; and Pterocarpus indicus, Delonix regia, Swietenia macrophylla were categorized as moderately tolerant species. Gmelina arborea, Cinnamomum burmanii, and Mimusops elengi were categorized as intermediate tolerant species. Lagerstroemia speciosa could be potentially used as roadside tree. The combination of RGR and APTI value was better to determinate tolerance level of plant to air pollutant than merely APTI method.

  4. Exchange rate uncertainty and deviations from purchasing power parity: Evidence from the G7 area

    OpenAIRE

    Arghyrou, Michael G.; Gregoriou, Andros; Pourpourides, Panayiotis M.

    2009-01-01

    Arghyrou, Gregoriou and Pourpourides (2009) argue that exchange rate uncertainty causes deviations from the law of one price. We test this hypothesis on aggregate data from the G7-area. We find that exchange rate uncertainty explains to a significant degree deviations from Purchasing Power Parity.

  5. Exchange rate uncertainty and deviations from Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from the G7 area

    OpenAIRE

    Arghyrou, Michael G.; Gregoriou, Andros; Pourpourides, Panayiotis M.

    2009-01-01

    Arghyrou, Gregoriou and Pourpourides (2009) argue that exchange rate uncertainty causes deviations from the law of one price. We test this hypothesis on aggregate data from the G7-area. We find that exchange rate uncertainty explains to a significant degree deviations from Purchasing Power Parity.

  6. Predicting Offender-Generated Exchange Rates: Implications for a Theory of Sentence Severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, David C.; Wood, Peter B.; Mooney, Jennifer L.; Minor, Kevin I.

    2005-01-01

    We solicited offender-generated exchange rates between prison and several noncustodial sanctions from a sample of 588 offenders currently serving community-based punishments. We then regressed these exchange rates on demographic, attitudinal, and correctional experience indicators. Males, Blacks, older offenders, offenders with prison experience,…

  7. Exchange Rate Exposures and Strategies of Industrial Companies: An Empirical Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy.......This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy....

  8. The IMF’s Reserves Template and Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia; John Cady

    2006-01-01

    The effects of the adoption of the IMF's International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Data Template on nominal exchange rate volatility are investigated for 48 countries. Estimation of panel data models indicates that nominal exchange rate volatility decreases following dissemination of reserves template data while the effects of indebtedness and reserve adequacy on volatility exhibit statistically significant changes.

  9. Estimating the half-life of theoretically founded real exchange rate misalignments

    OpenAIRE

    Kubota, Megumi

    2013-01-01

    This paper models empirically the short and long-term behavior of the real exchange rate misalignment -- a key variable in academic and policy circles. The equilibrium real exchange rate is derived from a theoretical model with intertemporal external equilibrium and internal equilibrium (in traded and non-traded markets) based on the current account dynamics and Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson pr...

  10. AN ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL PRICE AND EXCHANGE RATE ELASTICITY FOR US SOYBEANS: THE CASE OF JAPAN

    OpenAIRE

    Paudel, Laxmi; Kinnucan, Henry W.; Adhikari, Murali; Houston, Jack E.

    2004-01-01

    Stepwise model selection criteria were tested against the restrictive forms to determine the appropriate model and to confirm the law of one price for the US soybeans. Analysis shows less than one international price transmission and exchange rate elasticities in the long run indicate an incomplete exchange rate pass through.

  11. Inequality, the price of nontradables, and the real exchange rate : theory and cross-country evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Min, Hong-Ghi

    2002-01-01

    The author provides theoretical and empirical evidence of a negative association between income inequality and real exchange rates. First, he builds a theoretical model showing the transmission mechanism from inequality to real exchange rates. Second, using cross-country data, he demonstrates that the theoretical argument has empirical support. The association is large, significant, and ro...

  12. Floating Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Experience with Auction and Interbank Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Kyong Mo Huh; Benedicte Vibe Christensen; Peter J. Quirk; Toshihiko Sasaki

    1987-01-01

    In recent years, an increasing number of developing countries have adopted market-determined floating exchange rates. This development has represented a significant step forward in the evolution toward exchange rate flexibility that has taken place in the developing country group since the adoption of generalized floating by industrial countries in 1973.

  13. Oil prices and the rise and fall of the U.S. real exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is examined whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. Data used for the study are described and their time series properties and the long-run explanatory power of oil prices for the real exchange rate are examined. Apparent causal relationships between exchange rates and oil prices are examined. An unrestricted error correction model is reduced until an error correction model with reasonable properties is derived. Results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice-versa. The single equation error correction model linking these two variables is stable and captures much of the in- and out-of-sample movement in the exchange rate in dynamic simulation. Tests are presented to show that the error correction model has significant post-sample predictive ability for both the size and sign of changes in the real effective exchange rate. The results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistant real exchange rate shocks over the post-Bretton Woods period and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behaviour. 61 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  14. Reducing the energy consumption of an earth–air heat exchanger with a PID control system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The application of control actions to green technologies has been simulated. • Energy consumption of green technologies can be reduced even more. • The efficiency of green technologies can be raised. • Environmental concerns can be diminished. • The sustainability of the planet can be increased. - Abstract: Reducing environmental emissions is one of the challenges that human being has to overcome. It can only be reached with a proper energetic efficiency and management of the processes that exist in the society nowadays. Several academic works have mentioned that raising the efficiency of a process it also increases sustainability and in turn decreases the environmental impact. One process that requires much attention is the cooling and heating of buildings; this process contributes to the major part of the electric bill, in particular, if a conventional and old air conditioning is used as commonly occurs in many countries. In recent years there have been developed new alternatives that are used in few countries, such as the earth–air heat exchanger, where air is passed through a heat exchanger buried a few meters below the ground. The heat exchanger takes advantage of the well-known difference between the temperature of the surrounding air and the temperature of the ground for cooling or heating the air that is subsequently injected into the buildings. This process requires less energy, then in the present work is thought that a PID (Proportional, Integral and Derivative) controller can be applied to an earth–air heat exchanger to reduce even more the energy consumption. Therefore, a simulation of a thermodynamic model of an earth–air heat exchanger was done and used along with a PID controller, to estimate savings in energy consumption. The results show that the energy consumption can be reduced up to 87% with the PID control, hence the efficiency of the process is increased as well as the sustainability of the planet and thus the

  15. Versatile radar measurement of the electron loss rate in air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present an experimental method that makes possible in-situ measurements of the electron loss rate in arbitrary gas mixtures. A weakly ionized plasma is induced via resonant multiphoton ionization of trace amounts of nitric oxide seeded into the gas, and homodyne microwave scattering detection is used to study the dynamics of the electron loss mechanisms. Using this approach, the attachment rate for electrons to molecular oxygen in room temperature, atmospheric pressure air is determined. The measured 0.76 × 108 s−1 attachment rate is in very good agreement with predictions based on literature data

  16. Effects of Trade Openness, Exchange Rate, and Oil Price on the Exports in Syria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Shakeeb Mohsen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to test the effect of trade openness, exchange rate and oil price on the exports in Syria over the period 1970-2010. The cointegration test indicates that exports are positively related to trade openness and oil price, but negatively related to exchange rate. Exchange rate has the biggest effect on the exports. The Granger causality test indicates bidirectional causality relationships between trade openness, exchange rate, oil price and exports in the short and long run. The study result indicates that, in order to boost the Syrian exports, it is vital for the Syrian government to open up the Syrian economy to foreign trade, decline the Syrian pound exchange rate, improve the quality of the Syrian exports, and decline the crude oil exports.

  17. Yaw rate control of an air bearing vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walcott, Bruce L.

    1989-01-01

    The results of a 6 week project which focused on the problem of controlling the yaw (rotational) rate the air bearing vehicle used on NASA's flat floor facility are summarized. Contained within is a listing of the equipment available for task completion and an evaluation of the suitability of this equipment. The identification (modeling) process of the air bearing vehicle is detailed as well as the subsequent closed-loop control strategy. The effectiveness of the solution is discussed and further recommendations are included.

  18. Cascade exchange pressure supercharging system of the transport engine with deep cooling of intake air

    OpenAIRE

    Alekseev, S; Krajniuk, A.

    2010-01-01

    The new principle of the organisation of working process of the combined supercharging system of Internal Comdustion Engine (ICE) with the Cascade Pressure Exchanger(CPE) has been described. It allows considerably to raise level of forcing of the engine by supercharging at the expense of expansion of effective air supply area and coolings of supercharging air to temperature below an ambient without attraction of additional mechanical energy on refrigeration cycle realization. Substantiv...

  19. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  20. Research of heat exchange rate of the pulsating heat pipe

    OpenAIRE

    Kravets V. Yu.; Naumova A. M.; Vovkogon A. M.

    2010-01-01

    Given article presents experimental research of heat transfer characteristics of the pulsating heat pipe (PHP) which consists of seven coils with 1 mm inner diameter. Water was used as the heat carrier. PHP construction, measuring circuit and research technique are presented. It is shown that under PHP functioning there are two characteristic modes of operation, which can be distinguished by values of thermal resistance. PHP heat exchange features are disclosed.

  1. The Impact of Treasury Bill Rate and Interest Rate On The Stock Market Returns: Case Of Ghana Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Augustine  Addo; Fidelis Sunzuoye

    2013-01-01

    Several studies have suggested that macroeconomic variables affect Stock market returns using Treasury bill rate as a measure of interest rate. The study examines the joint impact of  interest rates and Treasury bill rate on  stock market returns on Ghana Stock Exchange over the period between January 1995 and December 2011. Using Johansen’s Multivariate Cointegration Model and Vector Error  Correction Model the study establish that there is cointegration between Interest rate, Treasury bill ...

  2. Effect of Air Cleaning Technologies in Conjunction With the Use of Rotary Heat Exchangers in Residential Buildings

    OpenAIRE

    Afshari, Alireza; Bergsøe, Niels Christian; Ekberg, Lars

    2013-01-01

    This study is part of a research project concerning the possibilities of applying efficient air cleaning technologies using rotary heat exchanger in residential buildings. The purpose of this project was to identify and adapt new air-cleaning technologies for implementation in HVAC systems with rotary air-to-air heat exchangers. For this purpose, a mechanical filter with low pressure drop and a 4 cm thick activated carbon filter were selected for testing in a laboratory environment. The measu...

  3. Theoretical evaluation on the impact of heat exchanger in Advanced Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • A multi-stage AA-CAES system model is established based on thermodynamic theory. • Four Cases about pressure loss and effectiveness of heat exchanger are investigated. • The impact of pressure loss on conversion of heat energy in TES is more sensitive. • The impact of heat exchanger effectiveness in charge process on system is stronger. • Pressure loss in heat exchanger affects the change trends of system efficiency. - Abstract: Advanced Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage (AA-CAES) is a large-scale energy storage system based on gas turbine technology and thermal energy storage (TES). Electrical energy can be converted into internal energy of air and heat energy in TES during the charge process, while reverse energy conversion proceeds during discharge process. The performance of AA-CAES system requires further improvement in order to increase efficiency. In this paper, a multi-stage AA-CAES system model is established, and the influence of effectiveness and pressure loss in heat exchanger on energy conversion and utilization efficiency of AA-CAES system is analyzed theoretically based on the theory of thermodynamics. Four Cases about effectiveness and pressure loss of heat exchanger are investigated and compared with each other. It is found that effectiveness and pressure loss of heat exchanger are directly related to energy conversion and utilization in AA-CAES system. System efficiency changes with the variation of heat exchanger effectiveness and the impact of pressure loss on conversion of heat energy in TES is more sensitive than that of internal energy of air. Pressure loss can cause the complexity of system efficiency change. With appropriate selection of the values of heat exchanger effectiveness for both charge and discharge processes, an AA-CAES system with a higher efficiency could be expected

  4. Role of sea ice in air-sea exchange and its relation to sea fog

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    解思梅; 包澄澜; 姜德中; 邹斌

    2001-01-01

    Synchronous or quasi-synchronous stereoscopic sea-ice-air comprehensive observation was conducted during the First China Arctic Expedition in summer of 1999. Based on these data, the role of sea ice in sea-air exchange was studied. The study shows that the kinds, distribution and thickness of sea ice and their variation significantly influence the air-sea heat exchange. In floating ice area, the heat momentum transferred from ocean to atmosphere is in form of latent heat; latent heat flux is closely related to floating ice concentration; if floating ice is less, the heat flux would be larger. Latent heat flux is about 21 23.6 W*m-2, which is greater than sensible heat flux. On ice field or giant floating ice, heat momentum transferred from atmosphere to sea ice or snow surface is in form of sensible heat. In the floating ice area or polynya, sea-air exchange is the most active, and also the most sensible for climate. Also this area is the most important condition for the creation of Arctic vapor fog. The heat exchange of a large-scale vapor fog process of about 500000 km2 on Aug. 21 22,1999 was calculated; the heat momentum transferred from ocean to air was about 14.8×109 kW. There are various kinds of sea fog, radiation fog, vapor fog and advection fog, forming in the Arctic Ocean in summer. One important cause is the existence of sea ice and its resultant complexity of both underlying surface and sea-air exchange.

  5. Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation to the Romanian Foreign Currency Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavinia Diana Vasile

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we intend to indentify the impact of the currency rate of exchange variation of the two main currencies which represent Romania’s foreign currency reserve and the stress test it submits the latter. Up to the present moment there not established a cause-effect relationship or correlation between the foreign currency exchage rate was variation and the foreign currency reserve. In this respect we used an econometrics model based on cointegration analysis of the three series of data corresponding to the period of time 31.01.1995-31.06.2006 (the EURO exchange rate, the USD exchange rate and the foreign currency reserve.

  6. A comparative study of United States and China exchange rate behavior: A co integration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shafi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates always affect the prices of the imports and export of products and services in which countries are trading with other parts of the world. Therefore, exchange rate calculation is one of the essential issues for making appropriate policies. This research investigates the determinants of trade, i.e. import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation, which bring changes in exchange rate and their influence eventually on balance of payments. Data of defined variables was collected on yearly basis for China and USA for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there existed a long run relationship in both countries. USA and China had significant and correct signs on the short run dynamic and some of the factors did not. Exchange rate did not granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment did not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinants of balance of trade could affect the exchange rates, also, these rates had considerable effect (positive or negative on balance of payments. In this twofold study, we found relationship of exchange rate with selected determinants of trade, and also examined their bilateral effect, and then made contrast of both countries.

  7. The Effects of Air Pollution on Ischemic Stroke Admission Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alimohammadi, Hossein; Fakhri, Sara; Derakhshanfar, Hojjat; Hosseini-Zijoud, Seyed-Mostafa; Safari, Saeed; Hatamabadi, Hamid Reza

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to determine the relationship between the level of air pollutants and the rate of ischemic stroke (IS) admissions to hospitals. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, stroke admissions (January-March 2012 and 2013) to an emergency department and air pollution and meteorological data were gathered. The relationship between air pollutant levels and hospital admission rates were evaluated using the generalize additive model. In all 379 patients with IS were referred to the hospital (52.5% male; mean age 68.2±13.3 years). Both transient (p<0.001) and long-term (p<0.001) rises in CO level increases the risk of IS. Increased weekly (p<0.001) and monthly (p<0.001) average O3 levels amplifies this risk, while a transient increase in NO2 (p<0.001) and SO2 (p<0.001) levels has the same effect. Long-term changes in PM10 (p<0.001) and PM2.5 (p<0.001) also increase the risk of IS. The findings showed that the level of air pollutants directly correlates with the number of stroke admissions to the emergency department. PMID:26866000

  8. DIFFUSIVE EXCHANGE OF GASEOUS POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS AND POLYCHLORINATED BIPHENYLS ACROSS THE AIR-WATER INTERFACE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. (R825245)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissolved and gas-phase concentrations of nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and 46 polychlorinated biphenyl congeners were measured at eight sites on the Chesapeake Bay at four different times of the year to estimate net diffusive air-water gas exchange rates. Gaseous PAHs ar...

  9. The impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises

    OpenAIRE

    David M. Gould; Steven B. Kamin

    1999-01-01

    This paper addresses the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises. Some observers have argued that a tightening of monetary policy is necessary to stabilize the exchange rate, restore confidence, and lay the groundwork for an eventual recovery of economic activity. Others have argued that by raising interest rates (which reduces the ability of borrowers to repay loans and thereby weakens the banking system), tightening may further reduce investor confidence and lead...

  10. International fisher effect under exchange rate regime shifts: Evidence from 10 examples

    OpenAIRE

    Petr Koráb; Svatopluk Kapounek

    2013-01-01

    Amonetary union is classified by several authors as an extreme form of fixed exchange rate arrangement. Analyzing exits from monetary unions is, however, demanding. This paper studies the impact of inflation and interest rate differentials on the nominal exchange rate after leaving a form of peg arrangement and moving to a floating regime, as it may serve as a parallel for a monetary union break-up. The theoretical framework is provided by the theory of the International Fisher Effect. We fin...

  11. International transmission of anticipated inflation under alternative exchange-rate regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Jill A. Holman; Felix K. Rioja

    1998-01-01

    This paper studies the international transmission of anticipated inflation. A two-country, two-good, two-currency, cash-in-advance model is used to examine analytically and numerically the consequences of changes in a country's inflation rate. Domestic monetary policy influences real activity at home through an inflation-tax channel. These real effects are transmitted to the foreign country via fluctuations in the real exchange rate. Under a flexible nominal exchange rate, inflation is a begg...

  12. The Effects Of Asymmetric Transmission Of Exchange Rate On Inflation In Iran: Application Of Threshold Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naghdi Yazdan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Given the recent fluctuation in the exchange rate and the presence of several factors such as the various economy-political sanctions (mainly embargos on oil and banking, extreme volatility in different economic fields, and consequently the devaluation of national and public procurement -A landmark that is emanating from exchange rate fluctuation - two points should be noted: First, it is essential to review the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on macro economic variables such as inflation and to provide appropriate policies. Second, the existence of this condition provides the chance to study the relation between exchange rate and inflation in a non-linear and asymmetric method. Hence, the present study seeks to use TAR model and, on the basis of monthly time series data over the period March 2002 to March 2014, to analyze the cross-asymmetric and non-linear exchange rate on consumer price index (CPI in Iran. The results also show the presence of an asymmetric long-term relationship between these variables (exchange rate and CPI. Also, in the Iranian economy, the effect of negative shocks of exchange rate on inflation is more sustainable than the one from positive shocks.

  13. Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Fathian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

  14. Measuring important parameters for air-sea heat exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbe, Christoph; Schimpf, Uwe; Jaehne, Bernd

    2002-03-01

    The heat transfer between the ocean and the atmosphere is one of the most important parameters governing the global climate. Important parameters include the heat transfer velocity and the net heat flux as well as parameters of the underlying transport model. However, the net heat flux is hard to measure since processes take place in the thermal boundary layer, that is the topmost layer of the ocean less than 1 mm thick. Current techniques rely on three independent measurements of the constituent fluxes, the sensible heat flux, latent heat flux and radiative flux. They depend on indirect measurements of meteorological parameters and rely on a combination of data from different sensors using a number of heuristic assumptions. High relative errors and the need for long temporal averaging reduce the practicability of these techniques. In this paper a novel technique is presented that circumvents these drawbacks by directly measuring the net heat flux across the air-water interface with a single low-NETD infrared camera. A newly developed digital image processing technique allows to simultaneously estimating the surface velocity field and parameters of the temporal temperature change. In particular, this technique allows estimating the total derivative of the temperature with respect to time from a sequence of infrared images, together with error bounds on the estimates. This derivative can be used to compute the heat flux density and the heat transfer velocity, as well as the probability density function of the underlying surface renewal model. It is also possible to estimate the bulk-skin temperature difference given rise to by the net heat flux. Our technique has been successfully used in both laboratory measurements in the Heidelberg Aeolotron, as well as in field measurements in the equatorial pacific during the NOAA GasExII experiment this spring. The data show that heat flux measurements to an accuracy of better than 5% on a time scale of seconds are feasible.

  15. Air-soil exchange of organochlorine pesticides in a sealed chamber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bing; Han, Baolu; Xue, Nandong; Zhou, Lingli; Li, Fasheng

    2015-01-01

    So far little is known about air-soil exchange under any sealed circumstances (e.g., in plastic and glass sheds), which however has huge implications for the soil-air-plant pathways of persistent organic pollutants including organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). A newly designed passive air sampler was tested in a sealed chamber for measuring the vertical concentration profiles of gaseous phase OCPs (hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs)). Air was sampled at 5, 15, and 30 cm above ground level every 10th day during a 60-day period by deploying polyurethane foam cylinders housed in acrylonitrile butadiene styrene-covered cartridges. Concentrations and compositions of OCPs along the vertical sections indicated a clear relationship with proximity to the mixture of HCHs and DDTs which escapes from the soils. In addition, significant positive correlations were found between air temperatures and concentrations of HCHs and DDTs. These results indicated revolatilization and re-deposition being at or close to dynamic pseudo-equilibrium with the overlying air. The sampler used for addressing air-soil exchange of persistent organic pollutants in any sealed conditions is discussed. PMID:25597683

  16. Air-soil exchange of organochlorine pesticides in a sealed chamber

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bing Yang; Baolu Han; Nandong Xue; Lingli Zhou; Fasheng Li

    2015-01-01

    So far little is known about air-soil exchange under any sealed circumstances (e.g.,in plastic and glass sheds),which however has huge implications for the soil-air-plant pathways of persistent organic pollutants including organochlorine pesticides (OCPs).A newly designed passive air sampler was tested in a sealed chamber for measuring the vertical concentration profiles of gaseous phase OCPs (hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs)).Air was sampled at 5,15,and 30 cm above ground level every 10th day during a 60-day period by deploying polyurethane foam cyhnders housed in acrylonitrile butadiene styrene-covered cartridges.Concentrations and compositions of OCPs along the vertical sections indicated a clear relationship with proximity to the mixture of HCHs and DDTs which escapes from the soils.In addition,significant positive correlations were found between air temperatures and concentrations of HCHs and DDTs.These results indicated revolatilization and re-deposition being at or close to dynamic pseudo-equilibrium with the overlying air.The sampler used for addressing air-soil exchange of persistent organic pollutants in any sealed conditions is discussed.

  17. Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline?

    OpenAIRE

    Aaron Tornell; Andres Velasco

    1995-01-01

    In recent years the conventional wisdom has held that fixed rates provide more fiscal discipline than do flexible rates. In this paper we show that this wisdom need not hold in a standard model in which fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a maximizing fiscal authority. The claim that fixed rates induce more discipline stresses that sustained adoption of lax fiscal policies must eventually lead to an exhaustion of reserves and thus to a politically costly collapse of the peg. Hence, un...

  18. Dry deposition and soil-air gas exchange of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in an industrial area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambient air and dry deposition, and soil samples were collected at the Aliaga industrial site in Izmir, Turkey. Atmospheric total (particle + gas) Σ41-PCB concentrations were higher in summer (3370 ± 1617 pg m-3, average + SD) than in winter (1164 ± 618 pg m-3), probably due to increased volatilization with temperature. Average particulate Σ41-PCBs dry deposition fluxes were 349 ± 183 and 469 ± 328 ng m-2 day-1 in summer and winter, respectively. Overall average particulate deposition velocity was 5.5 ± 3.5 cm s-1. The spatial distribution of Σ41-PCB soil concentrations (n = 48) showed that the iron-steel plants, ship dismantling facilities, refinery and petrochemicals complex are the major sources in the area. Calculated air-soil exchange fluxes indicated that the contaminated soil is a secondary source to the atmosphere for lighter PCBs and as a sink for heavier ones. Comparable magnitude of gas exchange and dry particle deposition fluxes indicated that both mechanisms are equally important for PCB movement between air and soil in Aliaga. - Determined fluxes indicated that dry deposition and air-soil exchange are equally important mechanisms for movement of PCBs between air and soil in the study area

  19. The American Foreign Exchange Option in Time-Dependent One-Dimensional Diffusion Model for Exchange Rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The classical Garman-Kohlhagen model for the currency exchange assumes that the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates are constant and the exchange rate follows a log-normal diffusion process.In this paper we consider the general case, when exchange rate evolves according to arbitrary one-dimensional diffusion process with local volatility that is the function of time and the current exchange rate and where the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates may be arbitrary continuous functions of time. First non-trivial problem we encounter in time-dependent case is the continuity in time argument of the value function of the American put option and the regularity properties of the optimal exercise boundary. We establish these properties based on systematic use of the monotonicity in volatility for the value functions of the American as well as European options with convex payoffs together with the Dynamic Programming Principle and we obtain certain type of comparison result for the value functions and corresponding exercise boundaries for the American puts with different strikes, maturities and volatilities.Starting from the latter fact that the optimal exercise boundary curve is left continuous with right-hand limits we give a mathematically rigorous and transparent derivation of the significant early exercise premium representation for the value function of the American foreign exchange put option as the sum of the European put option value function and the early exercise premium.The proof essentially relies on the particular property of the stochastic integral with respect to arbitrary continuous semimartingale over the predictable subsets of its zeros. We derive from the latter the nonlinear integral equation for the optimal exercise boundary which can be studied by numerical methods

  20. 20 Years of Air-Water Gas Exchange Observations for Pesticides in the Western Arctic Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantunen, Liisa M; Wong, Fiona; Gawor, Anya; Kylin, Henrik; Helm, Paul A; Stern, Gary A; Strachan, William M J; Burniston, Deborah A; Bidleman, Terry F

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic has been contaminated by legacy organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and currently used pesticides (CUPs) through atmospheric transport and oceanic currents. Here we report the time trends and air-water exchange of OCPs and CUPs from research expeditions conducted between 1993 and 2013. Compounds determined in both air and water were trans- and cis-chlordanes (TC, CC), trans- and cis-nonachlors (TN, CN), heptachlor exo-epoxide (HEPX), dieldrin (DIEL), chlorobornanes (ΣCHBs and toxaphene), dacthal (DAC), endosulfans and metabolite endosulfan sulfate (ENDO-I, ENDO-II, and ENDO SUL), chlorothalonil (CHT), chlorpyrifos (CPF), and trifluralin (TFN). Pentachloronitrobenzene (PCNB and quintozene) and its soil metabolite pentachlorothianisole (PCTA) were also found in air. Concentrations of most OCPs declined in surface water, whereas some CUPs increased (ENDO-I, CHT, and TFN) or showed no significant change (CPF and DAC), and most compounds declined in air. Chlordane compound fractions TC/(TC + CC) and TC/(TC + CC + TN) decreased in water and air, while CC/(TC + CC + TN) increased. TN/(TC + CC + TN) also increased in air and slightly, but not significantly, in water. These changes suggest selective removal of more labile TC and/or a shift in chlordane sources. Water-air fugacity ratios indicated net volatilization (FR > 1.0) or near equilibrium (FR not significantly different from 1.0) for most OCPs but net deposition (FR < 1.0) for ΣCHBs. Net deposition was shown for ENDO-I on all expeditions, while the net exchange direction of other CUPs varied. Understanding the processes and current state of air-surface exchange helps to interpret environmental exposure and evaluate the effectiveness of international protocols and provides insights for the environmental fate of new and emerging chemicals. PMID:26196214

  1. Effective transfer entropy approach to information flow between exchange rates and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate the strength and direction of information flow between exchange rates and stock prices in several emerging countries by the novel concept of effective transfer entropy (an alternative non-linear causality measure) with symbolic encoding methodology. Analysis shows that before the 2008 crisis, only low level interaction exists between these two variables and exchange rates dominate stock prices in general. During crisis, strong bidirectional interaction arises. In the post-crisis period, the strong interaction continues to exist and in general stock prices dominate exchange rates

  2. Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rafael de Oliveira Felício

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the usefulness of factor models in explaining the dynamics of the exchange rate Real / Dollar from January 1999 to August 2011. The paper verifies that the inclusion of factors embedded on the common movements of exchange rates of a set of countries significantly improves the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the models comprising only macroeconomic fundamentals commonly used in the literature to forecast the exchange rate. The paper also links the information contained in the factors to global shocks like the demand for dollars - a "dollar effect", volatility and liquidity of global financial markets.

  3. The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate on Agricultural Food Prices in Emerging Market

    OpenAIRE

    Li Zhou

    2015-01-01

    With the development of economic globalization, the economic ties between countries in the world more and more closely, prices and the exchange rate are the core economic variables in an open economy. In this study, we make a statistical analysis of RMB real effective exchange rate and agricultural food prices data from the year of 1990 to 2014. From the empirical analysis, the result shows that RMB real effective exchange rate will effect on agricultural food prices. LnREER at lag 1 period i...

  4. Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Beckmann, Joscha

    2011-01-01

    Although the literature on purchasing power parity (PPP) is rich in controversy, the relative contribution of prices and nominal exchange rates to real exchange rate movements which restore PPP disequilibria has rarely been put under any close scrutiny. Using monthly data from 1973:01 to 2009:12 from the USA, UK, Germany, France and Japan, this paper as a fi rst step applies a cointegrated VAR framework to test for stationary real exchange rates and linear adjustments in prices and nominal ex...

  5. Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Integration in the Euro Area

    OpenAIRE

    Ayako Saiki

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine how monetary integration affects the exchange rate pass-through, by testing whether monetary policy convergence in the euro area led to a convergence in terms of exchange rate pass-through. We conduct a comparative study between the "experiment group" (the euro area) and the "control group" (non-euro industrial countries). We find evidence for stronger convergence of exchange rate pass-through for the euro area economies as a group, especially around th...

  6. The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part I: Introduction

    OpenAIRE

    Yihui Lan

    2003-01-01

    In 1972, just prior to the collapse of the Bretton-Woods system of fixed exchange rates, the US dollar cost about .4 British pounds. By 1985, the dollar had appreciated to .9 pounds, but by 2001 it had fallen back to about .7 pounds. Such substantial changes in currency values over the longer term are commonplace in a world of floating exchange rates. The thesis aims to enhance understanding of such long-term movements in exchange rates by focusing on one of the central pillars of internation...

  7. Using fuzzy neural networks for RMB/USD real exchange rate forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUI Xiao-feng; LI Zhe; WEI Qing-quan

    2005-01-01

    In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential,which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm.In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.

  8. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on the Exports of Turkey: Analysis of Different Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Serra Eren Sarioglu

    2013-01-01

    The impact of real exchange rate volatility on the exports of a country is one of the crucial issues to consider. In this paper, the effect of exchange rate volatility on the exports of Turkey is investigated. Four of the leading industries of Turkey are chosen and examined for the period 2003-2011. Bounds test and ARDL approach are applied to the monthly figures of the variables. According to the empirical findings of the analysis, exchange rate volatility does not have any significant effec...

  9. Oil Shocks and Kuwait’s Dinar Exchange Rate: the Dutch Disease Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Al-mulali, Usama; Che Sab, Normee

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of oil prices on the exchange rate in Kuwait which uses the fixed exchange rate regime to the US dollar. Time series data from 1970-2008 covering all the oil shocks are used. In order to achieve the results of this study, the VAR model, the Johansen-Juselius Multivariate Cointegration test and the Granger causality test are implemented. Due to the results we have arrived at, we recommend that Kuwait either maintains its exchange rate regime (pegged to a bask...

  10. Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Eichenbaum; Charles L. Evans

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents new empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on U.S. exchange rates, both nominal and real. Three measures of monetary policy shocks are considered: orthogonalized shocks to the Federal Funds rate, the ratio of Non Borrowed to Total Reserves and the Romer and Romer (1989) index. Using data from the flexible exchange rate era, we find that expansionary shocks to U.S. monetary policy lead to sharp. persistent depreciations in U.S. nominal and real exchange...

  11. The Exchange Rate and Purchasing Power Parity: Extending the Theory and Tests

    OpenAIRE

    Apte, Prakesh; Sercu, Piet; Uppal, Raman

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyzes the exchange rate in a ``no-arbitrage' or ``real business cycle' equilibrium model and provides empirical evidence for this model vis-a-vis PPP. Our contribution is to show, based on a generalization of the equilibrium model of exchange rates, that (i) the test equation linking the exchange rate to fundamentals should allow for international heterogeneity in time preferences or risk attitudes, as well as noise---that is, the model should not be tested as an exact relation;...

  12. Effects of the exchange rate on international prices of pulp and paper in Brazilian currency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naisy Silva Soares

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze effects of the exchange rate adopted in Brazil as well as pulp and paper prices in the U.S. on pulpand paper prices in Brazilian currency, from April 2003 to February 2009. To attain that, the shift-share method was used, and analysisresults indicated that price variations in Brazilian currency were more strongly influenced by exchange rate variations than by variations indollar prices, demonstrating the importance of the exchange rate policy adopted by Brazil in the behavior of pulp and paper prices.

  13. Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ahmet

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

  14. Floating Exchange Rate Regime and Changing Dynamics of the Foreign Exchange Market in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Senkan Aldemir

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the changes caused by the implementations of currency basket peg and floating exchange regime on domestic foreign exchange market dynamics through the estimation of weights for the reserve currencies in the currency basket. Elasticity coefficients of Turkish Lira against seven currencies were estimated for two sampling periods (1995:01-1999:07 and 2002:01-2008:01 using generalized vector autoregression method. The study focuses on Turkish economy. The scope of the study represents a quite new field of investigation which is analyzed only to a limited extent in the literature. The main contribution of the study was that the study extended the empirical model which was taken as a basis in the majority of the studies on currency basket and the analyses which estimated using vector autoregression method whose sampling was limited to Asia countries, using generalized impulse response normalization approach. The findings obtained from the first period support the weights of currencies in announced basket of currencies. It was observed that Pound Sterling had a significant weight in domestic foreign exchange market dynamics in the second period.

  15. Financial imbalances, the dollar exchange rate and international monetary policy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. TRIFFIN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The continuous and spectacular rise of the dollar on the global foreign exchange market, despite the equally spectacular current account deficit of the U.S. balance of payments, is something that no economist would have dreamed to be possible. Everyone will agree that the answer to the puzzle lies in the fact that the transactions in the current account now constitute only a small part of the gross currency movements, in fact dominated by capital movements. What needs to be explained then is the sheer volume of the total net capital that finances the deficit. The present work considers this paradox, the dollar’s role in the world monetary system and medium and long-term perspectives for the world financial system.

  16. Quantification of protein backbone hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates by solid state NMR spectroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez del Amo, Juan-Miguel; Fink, Uwe; Reif, Bernd, E-mail: reif@tum.d [Leibniz-Institut fuer Molekulare Pharmakologie (FMP) (Germany)

    2010-12-15

    We present the quantification of backbone amide hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates (HDX) for immobilized proteins. The experiments make use of the deuterium isotope effect on the amide nitrogen chemical shift, as well as on proton dilution by deuteration. We find that backbone amides in the microcrystalline {alpha}-spectrin SH3 domain exchange rather slowly with the solvent (with exchange rates negligible within the individual {sup 15}N-T{sub 1} timescales). We observed chemical exchange for 6 residues with HDX exchange rates in the range from 0.2 to 5 s{sup -1}. Backbone amide {sup 15}N longitudinal relaxation times that we determined previously are not significantly affected for most residues, yielding no systematic artifacts upon quantification of backbone dynamics (Chevelkov et al. 2008b). Significant exchange was observed for the backbone amides of R21, S36 and K60, as well as for the sidechain amides of N38, N35 and for W41{epsilon}. These residues could not be fit in our previous motional analysis, demonstrating that amide proton chemical exchange needs to be considered in the analysis of protein dynamics in the solid-state, in case D{sub 2}O is employed as a solvent for sample preparation. Due to the intrinsically long {sup 15}N relaxation times in the solid-state, the approach proposed here can expand the range of accessible HDX rates in the intermediate regime that is not accessible so far with exchange quench and MEXICO type experiments.

  17. Prediction of the Scale Removal Rate in Heat Exchanger Piping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najwa S. Majeed

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of predicting the mass transfer controlled CaCO3 scale removal rate has been investigated.Experiments were carried out using chelating agents as a cleaning solution at different time and Reynolds’s number. The results of CaCO3 scale removal or (mass transfer rate (as it is the controlling process are compared with proposed model of prandtl’s and Taylor particularly based on the concept of analogy among momentum and mass transfer.Correlation for the variation of Sherwood number ( or mass transfer rate with Reynolds’s number have been obtained .

  18. An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997

    OpenAIRE

    Jose M. Campa; P.H. Kevin Chang; Refalo, James F.

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the crawling peg' and target zone ( maxiband') regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an exchange...

  19. Macroeconomic news and the euro/dollar exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriele Galati; Corrinne Ho

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates to what extent daily movements in the euro/dollar rate were driven by news about the macroeconomic situation in the United States and the euro area during the first two years of EMU.

  20. Inflation Targeting According to Oil and Exchange Rate Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Cem Mehmet Baydur

    2008-01-01

    Unless current output is not equal to potential output in an economy, inflation targeting cannot be zero. The minimum rate of inflation target is determined by the level of economic distortion rate. Briefly, economic distortion can be defined as all kind of events and regulations that reduces the efficiency of price mechanism. While shocks are included to the analysis of inflation targeting with distortions, the central bank is compelled to make a choice between inflation and output stability...

  1. CFD-Based Correlation Development For Air Side Performance Of Finned And Finless Tube Heat Exchangers With Small Diameter Tubes

    OpenAIRE

    Bacellar, Daniel; Aute, Vikrant; Radermacher, Reinhard

    2014-01-01

    Air-to-refrigerant heat exchangers are a key component in air-conditioning and heat pump systems. A great deal of effort is spent on the design and optimization of these heat exchangers. One path towards improving their performance is the transition to smaller hydraulic diameter flow channels. This is evident by the recent introduction of microchannel heat exchangers in the stationary HVAC market. Systematic analyses demonstrates a great potential for improvement in terms of size, weight, ref...

  2. Direct measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over a coral reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish A.; MacKellar, Mellissa C.; Gray, Michael A.

    2016-05-01

    Quantification of CO2 exchange with the atmosphere over coral reefs has relied on microscale measurements of pCO2 gradients across the air-sea interfacial boundary; shipboard measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over adjacent ocean inferred to represent over reef processes or ecosystem productivity modeling. Here we present by way of case study the first direct measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over a coral reef made using the eddy covariance method. Research was conducted during the summer monsoon over a lagoonal platform reef in the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Results show the reef flat to be a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of similar magnitude as coastal lakes, while adjacent shallow and deep lagoons were net sinks as was the surrounding ocean. This heterogeneity in CO2 exchange with the atmosphere confirms need for spatially representative direct measurements of CO2 over coral reefs to accurately quantify their role in atmospheric carbon budgets.

  3. Thermal-economic optimization of an air-cooled heat exchanger unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thermodynamic modeling and optimal design of an air-cooled heat exchanger (ACHE) unit are developed in this study. For this purpose, ε–NTU method and mathematical relations are applied to estimate the fluids outlet temperatures and pressure drops in tube and air sides. The main goal of this study is minimizing of two conflicting objective functions namely the temperature approach and the minimum total annual cost, simultaneously. For this purpose, fast and elitist non-dominated sorting genetic-algorithm (NSGA-II) is applied to minimize the objective functions by considering ten design parameters. In addition, a set of typical constraints, governing on the ACHE unit design, is subjected to obtain more practical optimum design points. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of change in the objective functions, when the optimum design parameters vary, is conducted and the degree of each parameter on conflicting objective functions has been investigated. Finally, a selection procedure of the best optimum point is introduced and final optimum design point is determined. -- Highlights: ► Multi-objective optimization of air-cooled heat exchanger. ► Considering ten new design parameters in this type of heat exchanger. ► A detailed cost function is used to estimate the heat exchanger investment cost. ► Presenting a mathematical relation for optimum total cost vs. temperature approach. ► The sensitivity analysis of parameters in the optimum situation

  4. The air-kerma rate constant of 192Ir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ninković, M M; Raiĉevìć, J J

    1993-01-01

    The air-kerma rate constant gamma delta (and its precursors), as one of the basic radiation characteristics of 192Ir, was determined by many authors. Analysis of accessible data on this quantity led us to the conclusion that published data strongly disagree. That is the reason we calculated this quantity on the basis of our and many other authors' gamma-ray spectral data and the latest data for mass energy-transfer coefficients for air. In this way, a value was obtained for gamma delta of 30.0 +/- 0.9 a Gy m2 s-1 Bq-1 for an unshielded 192Ir source and 27.8 +/- 0.9 a Gy m2s -1Bq-1 for a standard packaged radioactive source taking into account attenuation of gamma rays in the platinum source wall. PMID:8416220

  5. Air kerma rates measurement in an interventional cardiology suite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Interventional Cardiology (IC), the assessment of the radiation that the physicians are exposed to is extremely important because the irradiation is not uniform and the received doses are substantially high. During the procedure, the radiation control is complex and there are several reasons for the high exposure levels. It is necessary to perform dosimetric assessments in different parts of the physicians' body and in different specific points of the examination room. By analyzing this information it is possible to determine the probable causes and to provide recommendations, aiming at optimizing the radiological protection. This work had the following objectives: to assess the exposition levels at representative points of critical anatomical regions of the physicians' body who perform IC examinations; to provide means to implement personal monitoring procedures; and to make them aware of the radiation risks. Measurements of air kerma rates were performed in 45 points around the examination table, along the room. Such measurements were made in the conditions frequently used in coronary angiography and coronary angioplasties procedures: adult patient phantom; RAO, LAO and AP incidences; fluoro and digital modes; 13cm and 17cm magnification modes; frequencies of 30f/s (fluoro) and 15 f/s (digital); typical field size used during examinations. Data were obtained at the lenses, chest, hands, gonads and knees levels. For AP incidence, the lowest contributions for scattered radiation and a more homogeneous distribution of radiation were observed. The highest air kerma rates were obtained during digital acquisition mode and for LAO incidence on interventional radiologists, anaesthesists and nurses. The most critical anatomical regions were the knees and gonads. Air kerma rates of about 7,8mGy/h were registered in some places. At physicians' hands position, rates of about 5mGy/h were reached. In several points and levels measured (workload ∼ 6 examinations/day), this

  6. Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Prices for Agricultural Commodities: Empirical Evidence from Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Burakov

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate long and short-term impact of changes in oil prices and the exchange rate on prices of seven groups of agricultural products in Russia (buckwheat, grain crops, potatoes, oat, wheat, rye, barley. In this paper, Granger causality approach is applied to test long-run interlinkages with monthly data from January 1999 to October 2015. For testing the response of agricultural prices to sudden shocks in oil prices and exchange rate in the short run, we use impulse-response techniques. The results of impulse response analysis show that agricultural prices are not particularly sensitive to changes in oil prices and the exchange rate of Russian ruble in the short term, except for imported commodities. In the long run, Granger causal relationship between agricultural prices and oil prices is missing, and with exchange rate is observed only in case of imported agricultural goods.

  7. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oilprice and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysiscommence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-basedco-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationshipbetween exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long runrelationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed tocheck the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics areinfluenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done andfound that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has aninfluence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under controlshould be implemented to control unemployment.

  8. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

  9. Assessing nonlinear structures in real exchange rates using recurrence plot strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belaire-Franch, Jorge; Contreras, Dulce; Tordera-Lledó, Lorena

    2002-11-01

    Purchasing power parity (PPP) is an important theory at the basis of a large number of economic models. However, the implication derived from the theory that real exchange rates must follow stationary processes is not conclusively supported by empirical studies. In a recent paper, Serletis and Gogas [Appl. Finance Econ. 10 (2000) 615] show evidence of deterministic chaos in several OECD exchange rates. As a consequence, PPP rejections could be spurious. In this work, we follow a two-stage testing procedure to test for nonlinearities and chaos in real exchange rates, using a new set of techniques designed by Webber and Zbilut [J. Appl. Physiol. 76 (1994) 965], called recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). Our conclusions differ slightly from Serletis and Gogas [Appl. Finance Econ. 10 (2000) 615], but they are also supportive of chaos for some exchange rates.

  10. On The Exchange Rate Risk Contribution To The Performance Of International Investments: The Case Of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra HOROBET

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the impact of changes in the Romanian currency exchange rates against the US dollar and the euro on an investment in the Romanian stock market from the perspective of a US dollar and euro based investor. Our analysis is directed towards identifying the significance of exchange rate volatility for the total risk of a Romanian investment from the perspective of investors with the US dollar and euro as reference currencies. Our results indicate that during more turbulent times investors were better off if invested in their home markets. We also find that the exchange rate risk decreased the risk that a US dollar or a euro-based investor was exposed to in Romania. The contribution of exchange rate risk to the risk of an international investor diversified in his home market and the Romanian market is small, even negative, with no significant differences turbulent versus normal times.

  11. Heat exchanger design for hot air ericsson-brayton piston engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ďurčanský P.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the solutions without negative consequences for the increasing energy consumption in the world may be use of alternative energy sources in micro-cogeneration. Currently it is looking for different solutions and there are many possible ways. Cogeneration is known for long time and is widely used. But the installations are often large and the installed output is more suitable for cities or industry companies. When we will speak about decentralization, the small machines have to be used. The article deals with the principle of hot-air engines, their use in combined heat and electricity production from biomass and with heat exchangers as primary energy transforming element. In the article is hot air engine presented as a heat engine that allows the conversion of heat into mechanical energy while heat supply can be external. In the contribution are compared cycles of hot-air engine. Then are compared suitable heat exchangers for use with hot air Ericsson-Brayton engine. In the final part is proposal of heat exchanger for use in closed Ericsson-Brayton cycle.

  12. Air-Seawater Exchange of Organochlorine Pesticides along the Sediment Plume of a Large Contaminated River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tian; Guo, Zhigang; Li, Yuanyuan; Nizzetto, Luca; Ma, Chuanliang; Chen, Yingjun

    2015-05-01

    Gaseous exchange fluxes of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) across the air-water interface of the coastal East China Sea were determined in order to assess whether the contaminated plume of the Yangtze River could be an important regional source of OCPs to the atmosphere. Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), chlordane compounds (CHLs), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) were the most frequently detected OCPs in air and water. Air-water exchange was mainly characterized by net volatilization for all measured OCPs. The net gaseous exchange flux ranged 10-240 ng/(m2·day) for γ-HCH, 60-370 ng/(m2·day) for trans-CHL, 97-410 ng/(m2·day) for cis-CHL, and ∼0 (e.g., equilibrium) to 490 ng/(m2·day) for p,p'-DDE. We found that the plume of the large contaminated river can serve as a significant regional secondary atmospheric source of legacy contaminants released in the catchment. In particular, the sediment plume represented the relevant source of DDT compounds (especially p,p'-DDE) sustaining net degassing when clean air masses from the open ocean reached the plume area. In contrast, a mass balance showed that, for HCHs, contaminated river discharge (water and sediment) plumes were capable of sustaining volatilization throughout the year. These results demonstrate the inconsistencies in the fate of HCHs and DDTs in this large estuarine system with declining primary sources. PMID:25827140

  13. Gas exchange rates of potato stands for bioregenerative life support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Raymond M.; Stutte, Gary W.; Mackowiak, Cheryl L.; Yorio, Neil C.; Sager, John C.; Knott, William M.

    Plants can provide a means for removing carbon dioxide (CO2) while generating oxygen (O2) and clean water for life support systems in space. To study this, 20 m2 stands of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plants were grown in a large (113 m3 vol.), atmospherically closed chamber. Photosynthetic uptake of CO2 by the stands was detected about 10 DAP (days after planting), after which photosynthetic rates rose rapidly as stand ground cover and total light interception increased. Photosynthetic rates peaked ca. 50 DAP near 45 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 under 865 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF (average photosynthetic photon flux), and near 35 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 under 655 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF. Short term changes in PPF caused a linear response in stand photosynthetic rates up to 1100 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF, with a light compensation point of 185 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF. Comparisons of stand photosynthetic rates at different CO2 concentrations showed a classic C3 response, with saturation occurring near 1200 μmol mol-1 CO2 and compensation near 100 μmol mol-1 CO2. In one study, the photoperiod was changed from 12 h light/12 h dark to continuous light at 58 DAP. This caused a decrease in net photosynthetic rates within 48 h and eventual damage (scorching) of upper canopy leaves, suggesting the abrupt change stressed the plants and/or caused feedback effects on photosynthesis. Dark period (night) respiration rates increased during early growth as standing biomass increased and peaked near 9 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 ca. 50 DAP, after which rates declined gradually with age. Stand transpiration showed a rapid rise with canopy ground cover and peaked ca. 50 DAP near 8.9 L m-2 d-1 under 860 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF and near 6.3 L m-2 d-1 under 650 μmol m-2 s-1 PPF. Based on the best photosynthetic rates from these studies, approximately 25 m2 of potato plants under continuous cultivation would be required to support the CO2 removal and O2 requirements for one person.

  14. Exchange rate exposure of firms and the demand for foreign exchange derivatives in Brazil: did hedge or speculatiom matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines empirically how the demand of foreign exchange derivatives by Brazilian corporations is related to their exchange rate exposure. With the help of an original database of 74,567 contracts written from 1999 to 2002 between corporations and financial institutions, we were able to identify the corporations that speculated and the ones that hedged with foreign exchange derivatives during this period. Our results show that the exchange rate exposure is positively related to the foreign operational exposures for firms that speculated and negatively related for firms that hedged in 2002. For the other years of the sample period, speculation or hedge did not affect the relationship between the exchange rate exposure and the foreign operational exposure of firms.Este artigo analisa empiricamente como a demanda de derivativos de câmbio por firmas brasileiras está relacionada as suas exposições cambiais. Coma ajuda de umbanco de dados original de 74.567 contratos entre firmas e instituições financeiras de 1999 a 2002, somos capazes de identificar que empresas especularam e que empresas fizeram hedge durante o período. Nossos resultados mostram que a exposição operacional cambial das firmas está positivamente relacionada com a exposição cambial das firmas que especularam e negativamente relacionada com as firmas que fizeram hedge em 2002. Para os outros anos do período amostral, a especulação ou hedge não afetaram a relação entre a exposição operacional cambial e a exposição operacional das firmas brasileiras.

  15. The impact of real oil price on real effective exchange rate: The case of Azerbaijan

    OpenAIRE

    Hasanov, Fakhri

    2010-01-01

    Using quarterly data from 2000-2007 and applying Error Correction Model and Johansen Co- integration Approaches I estimate the impact of real oil price on the real exchange rate of Azerbaijani manat. Estimation outputs derived from these approaches are very close to each other and indicate that real oil price has statistically significant positive impact on real exchange rate in the long-run. Besides, revealed that relative price as a proxy for productivity has also explana...

  16. The exchange rate as an adjustment mechanism: a structural VAR approach to the case of Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Dermot Hodson

    2003-01-01

    Ireland’s participation in stage three of Economic and Monetary Union precludes exchange rate adjustment in response to asymmetric shocks. A Structural VAR model is used to decompose the effects of asymmetric supply, demand and nominal disturbances on macroeconomic imbalances between Ireland and the UK and on the Irish pound-sterling exchange rate. The results indicate that supply shocks account for a significant degree of the fluctuation in both variables. This lends weight to the view that ...

  17. Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic War: A Comparative Study of India and Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Khuram Shafi; Liu Hua; Zahra Idrees; Amna Nazeer

    2015-01-01

    Exchange rate has proved its behavior in determining the country economic position in this age of globalization and trade liberalization. Therefore, this research investigates that the determinants of trade i.e. Import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation brings changes in exchange rate and its influence eventually on balance of payments in comparison of Indian and Pakistani economies. Data of defined variables is collected on annual basis of India and Paki...

  18. Equilibrium real exchange rate and misalignments : Lessons from a VAR-ECM model applied to Tunisia

    OpenAIRE

    Fatma Marrakchi Charfi

    2008-01-01

    Tunisia has experienced a performance when pursuing a constant real exchange rate rule. The limitations of this rule are beginning to emerge in the context of a more open economy, which desire to relax capital controls. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate of the dinar vis 0076is the euro and the $US from 1983 to 2000, using quarterly data, based on the following fundamental variables: terms of trade, net capital inflows and the differential of productivity. Results show th...

  19. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Malaysia before the Asian Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    So UMEZAKI

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides a case study to characterize the monetary policy regime in Malaysia, from a medium- and long-term perspective. Specifically, we ask how the central bank of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), has structured its monetary policy regime, and how it has conducted monetary and exchange rate policy under the regime. By conducting three empirical analyses, we characterize the monetary and exchange rate policy regime in Malaysia by three intermediate solutions on three vectors: ...

  20. The Real Exchange Rate and Growth in Zimbabwe: Does the Currency Regime Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Brixiova, Zuzana; Ncube, Mthuli

    2014-01-01

    Zimbabwe faces growth and external competitiveness challenges, as indicated by its low trend growth and investment, declining share in the world exports, high current account deficits, and external debt. The stock-flow approach to the equilibrium exchange rate reveals that the real exchange rate experienced periods of sizeable overvaluation, both prior to the 2008 economic collapse and under the current multicurrency regime. While overvaluation hampers GDP growth, as well as growth and employ...