WorldWideScience

Sample records for age estimation

  1. Age estimation in the living

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sara Tangmose; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels;

    2015-01-01

    unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great...

  2. ESTIMATION OF AGE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ZINTER, JUDITH R.

    THIS NOTE DESCRIBES THE PROCEDURES USED IN DETERMINING DYNAMOD II AGE TRANSITION MATRICES. A SEPARATE MATRIX FOR EACH SEX-RACE GROUP IS DEVELOPED. THESE MATRICES WILL BE USED AS AN AID IN ESTIMATING THE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN THE LARGER DYNAMOD II MATRIX RELATING AGE TO OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES. THREE STEPS WERE USED IN THE PROCEDURE--(1)…

  3. A Hierarchical Framework for Facial Age Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuyu Liang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Age estimation is a complex issue of multiclassification or regression. To address the problems of uneven distribution of age database and ignorance of ordinal information, this paper shows a hierarchic age estimation system, comprising age group and specific age estimation. In our system, two novel classifiers, sequence k-nearest neighbor (SKNN and ranking-KNN, are introduced to predict age group and value, respectively. Notably, ranking-KNN utilizes the ordinal information between samples in estimation process rather than regards samples as separate individuals. Tested on FG-NET database, our system achieves 4.97 evaluated by MAE (mean absolute error for age estimation.

  4. Ethics in age estimation of unaccompanied minors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Kvaal, S I; Willems, G

    2012-11-30

    Children absconding from countries of conflict and war are often not able to document their age. When an age is given, it is frequently untraceable or poorly documented and therefore questioned by immigration authorities. Consequently many countries perform age estimations on these children. Provision of ethical practice during the age estimation investigation of unaccompanied minors is considered from different angles: (1) The UN convention on children's rights, formulating specific rights, protection, support, healthcare and education for unaccompanied minors. (2) Since most age estimation investigations are based on medical examination, the four basic principles of biomedical ethics, namely autonomy, beneficence, non-malevolence, justice. (3) The use of medicine for non treatment purposes. (4) How age estimates with highest accuracy in age prediction can be obtained. Ethical practice in age estimation of unaccompanied minors is achieved when different but related aspects are searched, evaluated, weighted in importance and subsequently combined. However this is not always feasible and unanswered questions remain.

  5. How to estimate dental age in paleodontology?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vedran Šebečić

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays there are many methods available for dental age estimation: morphological, radiological, biochemical. Some methods require sample sectioning while other non-destructive methods are more appropriate for use in paleodontology. Children’s dental age assessment is based on phases in growth and development of the deciduous and permanent dentition, while age assessment in the adult dentition is based upon changes in the structure of hard dental tissue caused by aging. Dental age calculating software enables automated age calculations.

  6. How to estimate dental age in paleodontology?

    OpenAIRE

    Vedran Šebečić; Andrea Hoch; Maja Sabalić

    2010-01-01

    Nowadays there are many methods available for dental age estimation: morphological, radiological, biochemical. Some methods require sample sectioning while other non-destructive methods are more appropriate for use in paleodontology. Children’s dental age assessment is based on phases in growth and development of the deciduous and permanent dentition, while age assessment in the adult dentition is based upon changes in the structure of hard dental tissue caused by aging. Dental age calculati...

  7. Bayesian estimation of isotopic age differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isotopic dating is subject to uncertainties arising from counting statistics and experimental errors. These uncertainties are additive when an isotopic age difference is calculated. If large, they can lead to no significant age difference by classical statistics. In many cases, relative ages are known because of stratigraphic order or other clues. Such information can be used to establish a Bayes estimate of age difference which will include prior knowledge of age order. Age measurement errors are assumed to be log-normal and a noninformative but constrained bivariate prior for two true ages in known order is adopted. True-age ratio is distributed as a truncated log-normal variate. Its expected value gives an age-ratio estimate, and its variance provides credible intervals. Bayesian estimates of ages are different and in correct order even if measured ages are identical or reversed in order. For example, age measurements on two samples might both yield 100 ka with coefficients of variation of 0.2. Bayesian estimates are 22.7 ka for age difference with a 75% credible interval of [4.4, 43.7] ka

  8. Bayesian estimation of isotopic age differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curl, R.L.

    1988-08-01

    Isotopic dating is subject to uncertainties arising from counting statistics and experimental errors. These uncertainties are additive when an isotopic age difference is calculated. If large, they can lead to no significant age difference by classical statistics. In many cases, relative ages are known because of stratigraphic order or other clues. Such information can be used to establish a Bayes estimate of age difference which will include prior knowledge of age order. Age measurement errors are assumed to be log-normal and a noninformative but constrained bivariate prior for two true ages in known order is adopted. True-age ratio is distributed as a truncated log-normal variate. Its expected value gives an age-ratio estimate, and its variance provides credible intervals. Bayesian estimates of ages are different and in correct order even if measured ages are identical or reversed in order. For example, age measurements on two samples might both yield 100 ka with coefficients of variation of 0.2. Bayesian estimates are 22.7 ka for age difference with a 75% credible interval of (4.4, 43.7) ka.

  9. Relative Attribute SVM+ Learning for Age Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shengzheng; Tao, Dacheng; Yang, Jie

    2016-03-01

    When estimating age, human experts can provide privileged information that encodes the facial attributes of aging, such as smoothness, face shape, face acne, wrinkles, and bags under-eyes. In automatic age estimation, privileged information is unavailable to test images. To overcome this problem, we hypothesize that asymmetric information can be explored and exploited to improve the generalizability of the trained model. Using the learning using privileged information (LUPI) framework, we tested this hypothesis by carefully defining relative attributes for support vector machine (SVM+) to improve the performance of age estimation. We term this specific setting as relative attribute SVM+ (raSVM+), in which the privileged information enables separation of outliers from inliers at the training stage and effectively manipulates slack variables and age determination errors during model training, and thus guides the trained predictor toward a generalizable solution. Experimentally, the superiority of raSVM+ was confirmed by comparing it with state-of-the-art algorithms on the face and gesture recognition research network (FG-NET) and craniofacial longitudinal morphological face aging databases. raSVM+ is a promising development that improves age estimation, with the mean absolute error reaching 4.07 on FG-NET. PMID:25850101

  10. Age estimation using intraoral periapical radiographs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pooja S Rajpal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Changes in the size of dental pulp caused by the apposition of secondary dentin and occlusal wear are morphometric parameters for estimating age. Aim: To estimate the accuracy of age evaluation by Kvaal's method and the effect of occlusal wear on age using digital intraoral periapical radiographs in a subset of the Indian population. Materials and Methods: A total of 300 teeth were radiographically evaluated using intraoral periapical digital radiographs from 50 adult patients. A few modifications were made in the design of the study compared to the original Kvaal's method. The radiographs of three teeth from each jaw were taken and morphometric measurements in ratios were analyzed, which included the pulp length to tooth length (X1, pulp length to root length (X2, pulp width to root widths at three defined levels (X3, and tooth length to root length (X4. Statistical Analysis: The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (PCC between age and the morphological variables showed that among them X1, X2, and X3were statistically significant but not the tooth root length ratio (X4. Conclusions: The ratios X1, X2, and X3were good indicators of age and hence a multiple linear regression model for age estimation was derived using these three variables. However, it was found that X4was not a good indicator of age estimation in said population.

  11. Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-05-10

    Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. PMID:25645903

  12. Epigenetic estimation of age in humpback whales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polanowski, Andrea M; Robbins, Jooke; Chandler, David; Jarman, Simon N

    2014-09-01

    Age is a fundamental aspect of animal ecology, but is difficult to determine in many species. Humpback whales exemplify this as they have a lifespan comparable to humans, mature sexually as early as 4 years and have no reliable visual age indicators after their first year. Current methods for estimating humpback age cannot be applied to all individuals and populations. Assays for human age have recently been developed based on age-induced changes in DNA methylation of specific genes. We used information on age-associated DNA methylation in human and mouse genes to identify homologous gene regions in humpbacks. Humpback skin samples were obtained from individuals with a known year of birth and employed to calibrate relationships between cytosine methylation and age. Seven of 37 cytosines assayed for methylation level in humpback skin had significant age-related profiles. The three most age-informative cytosine markers were selected for a humpback epigenetic age assay. The assay has an R(2) of 0.787 (P = 3.04e-16) and predicts age from skin samples with a standard deviation of 2.991 years. The epigenetic method correctly determined which of parent-offspring pairs is the parent in more than 93% of cases. To demonstrate the potential of this technique, we constructed the first modern age profile of humpback whales off eastern Australia and compared the results to population structure 5 decades earlier. This is the first epigenetic age estimation method for a wild animal species and the approach we took for developing it can be applied to many other nonmodel organisms. PMID:24606053

  13. Chronomics, human time estimation, and aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franz Halberg

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Franz Halberg, Robert B Sothern, Germaine Cornélissen, Jerzy Czaplicki1Halberg Chronobiology Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA; 1Institut de Pharmacologie et de Biologie Structurale CNRS, Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, FranceBackground: Circadian rhythm stage affects many outcomes, including those of mental aging.Methods: Estimations of 1 minute ∼5 times/day for a year, 25 years apart, by a healthy male biomedical scientist (RBS, are analyzed by the extended cosinor.Results: Cycles of a half-week, a week, ∼30 days, a half-year and a year, in self-assessed 1-minute estimation by RBS between 25 and 60 years of age in health, are mapped for the first time, compared and opposite effects are found. For RBS at 60 vs at 25 years of age, it takes less time in the morning around 10:30 (P < 0.001, but not in the evening around 19:30 (P = 0.956, to estimate 1 minute.Discussion: During the intervening decades, the time of estimating 1 minute differed greatly, dependent on circadian stage, being a linear decrease in the morning and increase in the evening, the latter modulated by a ∼33.6-year cycle.Conclusion: Circadian and infradian rhythm mapping is essential for a scrutiny of effects of aging. A ∼30-day and a circannual component apparent at 25 years of age are not found later; cycles longer than a year are detected. Rhythm stages await tests as markers for timing therapy in disease.Keywords: circadian rhythm, mental function, time estimation

  14. Estimating population age structure using otolith morphometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doering-Arjes, P.; Cardinale, M.; Mosegaard, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    known-age fish individuals. Here we used known-age Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from the Faroe Bank and Faroe Plateau stocks. Cod populations usually show quite large variation in growth rates and otolith shape. We showed that including otolith morphometrics into ageing processes has the potential...... populations. The intercalibration method was successful but generalization from one stock to another remains problematic. The development of an otolith growth model is needed for generalization if an operational method for different populations is required in the future....... to make ageing objective, accurate, and fast. Calibration analysis indicated that a known-age sample from the same population and environment is needed to obtain robust calibration; using a sample from a different stock more than doubles the error rate, even in the case of genetically highly related...

  15. Validating Age Estimates for Bocaccio Rockfish with Radiometric Dating

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor M Cailliet

    2002-01-01

    Dr. Gregor Cailliet and colleagues at California State University sought to evaluate the accuracy of aging bocaccio by counting calcified layers in the fish’s bone-like ear structures, called otoliths. Otoliths are assumed to grow in annual bands.Their work suggests that otolith-based age estimates tend to underestimate ages of older fish, compared to age estimates based on radiometric analyses. In younger fish, whose otolith layers are more distinct and easy to count, both methods provide si...

  16. Impairment of age estimation from faces in Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyse, Evelyne; Bastin, Christine; Salmon, Eric; Brédart, Serge

    2015-01-01

    A prerequisite for any function in social cognition is the perception and processing of social cues. Age estimation is a skill that is used in everyday life and is fundamental in social interactions. This study evaluated whether facial age estimation is impaired in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD). The current age of faces is known to have an impact on age estimation, and therefore stimuli belonging to different age groups (young, middle-aged, and older adults' faces) were used. As expected, an impairment of age estimation from faces was observed in mild to moderate AD patients. However, the profile of impairment depended on the age of faces and stage of the disease. Mild AD patients presented difficulties mainly in assessing the age of middle-aged adults. In moderate disease stage, these difficulties also affected the age estimation of young adult faces. Interestingly, AD patients remained relatively good at estimating the age of older adults' faces, compared to healthy controls. PMID:25589725

  17. Dental Age Estimation Helps Create a New Identity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gibelli, Daniele; Fabbri, Paolo; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-09-01

    Age estimation involves the reconstruction of age by biological parameters such as skeletal and dental development in minors, or reduction of pulp chamber in adults, to gain indications concerning the chronological age of the person. In most cases, it is needed in forensic scenarios to verify if the supposed age of an individual is correct; in exceptional cases, age estimation is instead required by judicial authorities to create a new identity usually in persons who do not remember who they are.This article aims at reporting the case of J. who was found in 2005 with signs of amnesia because he did not remember his name and age. After several unsuccessful attempts at identifying him, the judicial authority decided to assign a new identity, which was to be constructed according to the real biological data of the individual. The help of a forensic pathologist and a forensic odontologist was then requested, and age estimation was reached by applying methods for adults based on the physiological reduction of pulp chamber. Dental age estimation yielded a final result of approximately 31 years, which was the new age assigned to the person.This article shows a peculiar application of dental age estimation, which can be used not only to ascertain or deny supposed age, but is sometimes needed to create a new identity. PMID:26079404

  18. Human Age Estimation from Tooth Cementum and Dentin

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Priya; Kaur, Harshaminder; Shankari G.S., Madhu; Jawanda, Manveen Kaur; Sahi, Nita

    2014-01-01

    Background: Age estimation is an important factor in the identification of an individual in forensic science. The hard tissues of the human dentition are able to resist decay and degradation, long after other tissues are lost. This resistance has made teeth useful indicators for age calculation. Recent research has indicated that Tooth Cementum Annulations (TCA) may be used more reliably than any other morphological or histological traits of the adult skeleton, for age estimation.

  19. A Bayesian estimation of the helioseismic solar age

    CERN Document Server

    Bonanno, Alfio

    2015-01-01

    The helioseismic determination of the solar age has been a subject of several studies because it provides us with an independent estimation of the age of the solar system. We present the Bayesian estimates of the helioseismic age of the Sun, which are determined by means of calibrated solar models that employ different equations of state and nuclear reaction rates. We use 17 frequency separation ratios $r_{02}(n)=(\

  20. Evaluation of post-mortem estimated dental age versus real age: a retrospective 21-year survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reppien, Kirsa; Sejrsen, Birgitte; Lynnerup, Niels

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate the reliability of methods used for forensic dental age estimation. We analysed all cases over the last 21 years (1984-2004) of unidentified bodies that were examined for identification purposes (including age assessment), and of which secure identification...... was subsequently achieved. In total, the study included 51 cases and 7 different methods had been used for dental age estimation, with the Bang/Ramm and the Gustafson/Johanson methods being the most frequently applied. The age estimates had usually been recorded as 10-year intervals. Factual ages at death were...... in the range of 6-76 years, with the largest concentration of cases being in the age interval of 25-55 years (34 cases). There was good agreement between estimated age interval and factual age at death in 37/51 (72%) of the cases. In eight cases the factual age at death deviated up to +/-5 years from...

  1. Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.

    2010-01-01

    We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in

  2. Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eran Bendavid

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. METHODS: Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5q(x. We then compare our (5q(x estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. FINDINGS: We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased. WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%. However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9% and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%. Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60. INTERPRETATION: Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing

  3. Comparative Analysis of Old-Age Mortality Estimations in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendavid, Eran; Seligman, Benjamin; Kubo, Jessica

    2011-01-01

    Background Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. Methods Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals (5qx). We then compare our 5qx estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. Findings We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased). WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%). However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8–7.9%) and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6–15.5%). Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60. Interpretation Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become

  4. Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tokola, Ryan A [ORNL; Bolme, David S [ORNL; Ricanek, Karl [ORNL; Barstow, Del R [ORNL; Boehnen, Chris Bensing [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-class SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.

  5. Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Tao; Shi, Peijun; Jia, Gensuo; Dai, Yongjiu; Zhao, Xiang; Shangguan, Wei; Du, Ling; Wu, Hao; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-12-01

    Forests have been recognized to sequester a substantial amount of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and time course of the C sink. Revealing the intrinsic relationship between forest age and C sink is crucial for reducing uncertainties in prediction of forest C sink potential. In this study, we developed a stepwise data assimilation approach to combine a process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem Regional model, observations from multiple sources, and stochastic sampling to inversely estimate carbon cycle parameters including carbon sink at different forest ages for evergreen needle-leaved forests in China. The new approach is effective to estimate age-dependent parameter of maximal light-use efficiency (R2 = 0.99) and, accordingly, can quantify a relationship between forest age and the vegetation and soil C sinks. The estimated ecosystem C sink increases rapidly with age, peaks at 0.451 kg C m-2 yr-1 at age 22 years (ranging from 0.421 to 0.465 kg C m-2 yr-1), and gradually decreases thereafter. The dynamic patterns of C sinks in vegetation and soil are significantly different. C sink in vegetation first increases rapidly with age and then decreases. C sink in soil, however, increases continuously with age; it acts as a C source when the age is less than 20 years, after which it acts as a sink. For the evergreen needle-leaved forest, the highest C sink efficiency (i.e., C sink per unit net primary productivity) is approximately 60%, with age between 11 and 43 years. Overall, the inverse estimation of carbon cycle parameters can make reasonable estimates of age-dependent C sequestration in forests.

  6. Age estimation using maxillary central incisors: A radiographic study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Agarwal

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the field of forensic dentistry, secondary changes in teeth with advancing age have been used as reliable predictors of age in various studies. Aim: The purpose of the present study was to present a method for assessing the chronological age based on the relationship between age and morphological parameters of maxillary central incisors. Materials and Methods: Fifty subjects between 20-70 years of age were included in the study. Intraoral periapical radiographs were taken in relation to maxillary central incisors using paralleling technique. The following measurements were recorded: lengths of tooth, pulp, root and width of root and pulp at three different points. Regression formulas were used to calculate the dental age. Results: The mean estimated age showed no statistically significant difference from the actual mean age (P > 0.05. Also, maximum difference was seen for root length variable (-1.035 ± 1.86 years.

  7. Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

    2010-11-01

    Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions. PMID:20847387

  8. Estimation of gestational age from gall-bladder length.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udaykumar, K; Udaykumar, Padmaja; Nagesh, K R

    2016-01-01

    Establishing a precise duration of gestation is vital in situations such as infanticide and criminal abortions. The present study attempted to estimate the gestational age of the foetus from gall-bladder length. Foetuses of various gestational age groups were dissected, and the length of the gall bladder was measured. The results were analysed, and a substantial degree of correlation was statistically confirmed. This novel method is helpful when the foetus is fragmented, putrefied or eviscerated, where this method can be used as an additional parameter to improve the accuracy of foetal age estimation. PMID:25990829

  9. Estimation and evidence in forensic anthropology: age-at-death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konigsberg, Lyle W; Herrmann, Nicholas P; Wescott, Daniel J; Kimmerle, Erin H

    2008-05-01

    A great deal has previously been written about the use of skeletal morphological changes in estimating ages-at-death. This article looks in particular at the pubic symphysis, as it was historically one of the first regions to be described in the literature on age estimation. Despite the lengthy history, the value of the pubic symphysis in estimating ages and in providing evidence for putative identifications remains unclear. This lack of clarity primarily stems from the fact that rather ad hoc statistical methods have been applied in previous studies. This article presents a statistical analysis of a large data set (n = 1766) of pubic symphyseal scores from multiple contexts, including anatomical collections, war dead, and victims of genocide. The emphasis is in finding statistical methods that will have the correct "coverage."Coverage" means that if a method has a stated coverage of 50%, then approximately 50% of the individuals in a particular pubic symphyseal stage should have ages that are between the stated age limits, and that approximately 25% should be below the bottom age limit and 25% above the top age limit. In a number of applications it is shown that if an appropriate prior age-at-death distribution is used, then "transition analysis" will provide accurate "coverages," while percentile methods, range methods, and means (+/-standard deviations) will not. Even in cases where there are significant differences in the mean ages-to-transition between populations, the effects on the stated age limits for particular "coverages" are minimal. As a consequence, more emphasis needs to be placed on collecting data on age changes in large samples, rather than focusing on the possibility of inter-population variation in rates of aging.

  10. Age estimation for forensic purposes in Italy: ethical issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Focardi, Martina; Pinchi, Vilma; De Luca, Federica; Norelli, Gian-Aristide

    2014-05-01

    Age assessment in children and young adults is a relevant medicolegal issue due to the gradual increase of persons devoid of proper identification documents in European countries. Because of the illegal immigration and growing crime rates among children and adolescents, age estimation for forensic purposes is often required. The scientific research and the extensive experience of forensic experts in the last decades focused on the use of radiographic methods addressed to evaluate the degree of skeletal or dental development as the most accurate parameters to estimate the chronological age of children and adolescents. This paper analyzes the ethical issues related to age estimation procedures based on radiographic methods, showing how the ethical principles of beneficence, nonmalevolence, justice, and autonomy may be guaranteed during the execution of the age assessment in forensic practice. The procedure might be conducted in accordance with international guidelines and protocols, though they need a higher homogenization and standardization. A strong collaboration between various scientific societies of professionals (forensic odontologists, forensic pathologists, forensic anthropologist, radiologists, pediatricians, and psychologists), who have been involved in age estimation for years, is needed to reach this goal. PMID:24633466

  11. Aging, Transition, and Estimating the Global Burden of Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seligman, Benjamin J.; Cullen, Mark R.; Horwitz, Ralph I.

    2011-01-01

    Background The World Health Organization's Global Burden of Disease (GBD) reports are an important tool for global health policy makers, however the accuracy of estimates for countries undergoing an epidemiologic transition is unclear. We attempted to validate the life table model used to generate estimates for all-cause mortality in developing countries. Methods and Results Data were obtained for males and females from the Human Mortality Database for all countries with available data every ten years from 1900 to 2000. These provided inputs for the GBD life table model and served as comparison observed data. Above age sixty model estimates of survival for both sexes differed substantially from those observed. Prior to the year 1960 for males and 1930 for females, estimated survival tended to be greater than observed; following 1960 for both males and females estimated survival tended to be less than observed. Viewing observed and estimated survival separately, observed survival past sixty increased over the years considered. For males, the increase was from a mean (sd) probability of 0.22 (0.06) to 0.46 (0.1). For females, the increase was from 0.26 (0.06) to 0.65 (0.08). By contrast, estimated survival past sixty decreased over the same period. Among males, estimated survival probability declined from 0.54 (0.2) to 0.09 (0.06). Among females, the decline was from 0.36 (0.12) to 0.15 (0.08). Conclusions These results show that the GBD mortality model did not accurately estimate survival at older ages as developed countries transitioned in the twentieth century and may be similarly flawed in developing countries now undergoing transition. Estimates of the size of older-age populations and their attributable disease burden should be reconsidered. PMID:21629652

  12. Aging, transition, and estimating the global burden of disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin J Seligman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's Global Burden of Disease (GBD reports are an important tool for global health policy makers, however the accuracy of estimates for countries undergoing an epidemiologic transition is unclear. We attempted to validate the life table model used to generate estimates for all-cause mortality in developing countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were obtained for males and females from the Human Mortality Database for all countries with available data every ten years from 1900 to 2000. These provided inputs for the GBD life table model and served as comparison observed data. Above age sixty model estimates of survival for both sexes differed substantially from those observed. Prior to the year 1960 for males and 1930 for females, estimated survival tended to be greater than observed; following 1960 for both males and females estimated survival tended to be less than observed. Viewing observed and estimated survival separately, observed survival past sixty increased over the years considered. For males, the increase was from a mean (sd probability of 0.22 (0.06 to 0.46 (0.1. For females, the increase was from 0.26 (0.06 to 0.65 (0.08. By contrast, estimated survival past sixty decreased over the same period. Among males, estimated survival probability declined from 0.54 (0.2 to 0.09 (0.06. Among females, the decline was from 0.36 (0.12 to 0.15 (0.08. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that the GBD mortality model did not accurately estimate survival at older ages as developed countries transitioned in the twentieth century and may be similarly flawed in developing countries now undergoing transition. Estimates of the size of older-age populations and their attributable disease burden should be reconsidered.

  13. Age estimation charts for a modern Australian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blenkin, Matthew; Taylor, Jane

    2012-09-10

    Calculation of the biological age of an individual has application in many fields of dentistry. It can be used to determine the appropriate timing of interventionist treatment for example in orthodontics; to analyse the developmental stage of an individual relative to the general population in the management of genetic or congenital conditions which disturb growth; and to estimate the age of a living or deceased person for forensic purposes. Many of the techniques used to estimate age can be quite time consuming to complete. This time component is a major disadvantage in a forensic context when age estimations in mass disasters are required as part of the post-mortem examination process. Consequently, forensic practitioners have tended to use the simpler but less reliable atlas style techniques of Schour and Massler and Ubelaker in these situations. For mass disaster situations, such as the recent Victorian Bushfires, it would be advantageous to have access to Australian specific data in the convenient Schour and Massler format. This project reinterpreted the Australian data previously collected by Blenkin and other relevant studies and applied it to a schematic similar to that of Ubelaker to develop a reliable, convenient and contemporary reference for use in age estimation.

  14. Estimation of age from development and eruption of teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. S. Manjunatha

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The developing dentition is used to assess maturity and estimate the age in many disciplines including anthropology, archeology, forensic science, pediatric dentistry and orthodontics. There is evidence that dental development is less effected than skeletal development by malnutrition and hormonal disorders. There are two methods of dental age assessment, radiographically and by clinically visualization of eruption of teeth. The clinical method to assess dental age is based on the emergence of teeth in the mouth. This method is more suitable since it does not require any special equipment, expertise and is more economical. Tooth formation is the best choice for estimating the age as variations are less as compared to other development factors. Eruption of teeth is one of the changes observed easily among the various dynamic changes that occur from the formation of teeth to the final shedding of teeth. The times of eruption of teeth are fairly constant and this can be made use of in ascertaining the average age of eruption of the tooth. Assessment of age of an individual by examination of teeth is one of the accepted methods of age determination.

  15. Evaluation of age estimation technique: testing traits of the acetabulum to estimate age at death in adult males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calce, Stephanie E; Rogers, Tracy L

    2011-03-01

    This study evaluates the accuracy and precision of a skeletal age estimation method, using the acetabulum of 100 male ossa coxae from the Grant Collection (GRO) at the University of Toronto, Canada. Age at death was obtained using Bayesian inference and a computational application (IDADE2) that requires a reference population, close in geographic and temporal distribution to the target case, to calibrate age ranges from scores generated by the technique. The inaccuracy of this method is 8 years. The direction of bias indicates the acetabulum technique tends to underestimate age. The categories 46-65 and 76-90 years exhibit the smallest inaccuracy (0.2), suggesting that this method may be appropriate for individuals over 40 years. Eighty-three percent of age estimates were ±12 years of known age; 79% were ±10 years of known age; and 62% were ±5 years of known age. Identifying a suitable reference population is the most significant limitation of this technique for forensic applications.

  16. A Robust Gender and Age Estimation under Varying Facial Pose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takimoto, Hironori; Mitsukura, Yasue; Fukumi, Minoru; Akamatsu, Norio

    This paper presents a method for gender and age estimation which is robust for facial pose changing. We propose a feature point detection method which is the Adapted Retinal Sampling Method (ARSM), and a feature extraction method. A basic concept of the ARSM is to add knowledge about the facial structure into the Retinal Sampling Method. In this method, feature points are detected based on 7 points corresponding to facial organ from face image. The reason why we used 7 points to basis of feature point detection is that facial organ is conspicuous in facial region, and it is comparatively easy to extract. As features which is robust for facial pose changing, a skin texture, a hue and a gabor jet are used for the gender and age estimation. For classification of gender and estimation of seriate age, we use a multi-layered neural network. Moreover, we examine the left-right symmetric property of the face concerning gender and age estimation by the proposed method.

  17. Estimation of Aging Effects on LOHS for CANDU-6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Yong Ki; Moon, Bok Ja; Kim, Seoung Rae [Nuclear Engineering Service and Solution Co. Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    To evaluate the Wolsong Unit 1's capacity to respond to large-scale natural disaster exceeding design, the loss of heat sink(LOHS) accident accompanied by loss of all electric power is simulated as a beyond design basis accident. This analysis is considered the aging effects of plant as the consequences of LOHS accident. Various components of primary heat transport system(PHTS) get aged and some of the important aging effects of CANDU reactor are pressure tube(PT) diametral creep, steam generator(SG) U-tube fouling, increased feeder roughness, and feeder orifice degradation. These effects result in higher inlet header temperatures, reduced flows in some fuel channels, and higher void fraction in fuel channel outlets. Fresh and aged models are established for the analysis where fresh model is the circuit model simulating the conditions at retubing and aged model corresponds to the model reflecting the aged condition at 11 EFPY after retubing. CATHENA computer code[1] is used for the analysis of the system behavior under LOHS condition. The LOHS accident is analyzed for fresh and aged models using CATHENA thermal hydraulic computer code. The decay heat removal is one of the most important factors for mitigation of this accident. The major aging effect on decay heat removal is the reduction of heat transfer efficiency by steam generator. Thus, the channel failure time cannot be conservatively estimated if aged model is applied for the analysis of this accident.

  18. An own-age bias in age estimation of faces in children and adults.

    OpenAIRE

    Moyse, Evelyne; Brédart, Serge

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to assess the occurence of an own-age bias on age estimation performance (better performance for faces from the same age range as that of the beholder) by using an experimental design inspired from research on the own-race effect. The age of participants (10 to 14 year old children and 20 to 30 year old adults) was an independent factor that was crossed with the age of the stimuli (faces of 10 to 14 year old children and faces of 20 to 30 year old adults), the...

  19. Dental age estimation using Willems method: A digital orthopantomographic study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rezwana Begum Mohammed

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, age estimation has become increasingly important in living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as a birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army, and retirement. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of left seven mandibular teeth for estimation of dental age (DA in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA in South Indian population using Willems method. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomogram of 332 subjects (166 males, 166 females who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular teeth (from central incisor to the second molar on left quadrant development was undertaken and DA was assessed using Willems method. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males (r = 0.71 and females (r = 0.88. The overall mean difference between the estimated DA and CA for males was 0.69 ± 2.14 years (P 0.05. Willems method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.69 years and females by 0.08 years and showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. The mean difference between DA and CA according to Willems method was 0.39 years and is statistically significant (P < 0.05. Conclusion: This study showed significant relation between DA and CA. Thus, digital radiographic assessment of mandibular teeth development can be used to generate mean DA using Willems method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA.

  20. Fetal age estimation using MSCT scans of deciduous tooth germs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minier, Marie; Maret, Delphine; Dedouit, Fabrice; Vergnault, Marion; Mokrane, Fathima-Zohra; Rousseau, Hervé; Adalian, Pascal; Telmon, Norbert; Rougé, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of fetal age is an essential element in many fields such as anthropology, odontology, paleopathology, and forensic sciences. This study examines the correlation between fetal age, femoral diaphyseal length (considered as the gold standard), and deciduous tooth germs of fetuses aged 22 to 40 weeks amenorrhea (WA) based on computed tomography (MSCT) reconstructions. Qualitative and quantitative studies of femoral and deciduous tooth germ lengths were performed on 81 fetuses (39 females and 42 males). R software was used for statistical analyses. Intra-observer and inter-observer variabilities and the interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were calculated. Correlation coefficients (R (2)) and linear regression equations were calculated. Intra- and inter-observer variabilities were very satisfactory (intra-observer ICC ≥ 0.96, inter-observer ICC ≥ 0.95). Femoral length was significantly correlated with age (R (2) = 0.9). The correlation coefficient between age and height, width, and dental volume was R (2) ≥ 0.73. Tooth germs were good indicators of fetal age. Our method appears to be reliable and reproducible, and the results of this study agreed with those of the literature. The dental formula provided a precise estimation of fetal age between 25 and 32 WA. Tooth germs were reliable indicators of fetal age, and multislice computed tomography was shown to be an innovative and reliable technology for this purpose. PMID:23828625

  1. Porosity estimation of aged mortar using a micromechanical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, M G; Anaya, J J; Sanchez, T; Segura, I

    2006-12-22

    Degradation of concrete structures located in high humidity atmospheres or under flowing water is a very important problem. In this study, a method for ultrasonic non-destructive characterization in aged mortar is presented. The proposed method makes a prediction of the behaviour of aged mortar accomplished with a three phase micromechanical model using ultrasonic measurements. Aging mortar was accelerated by immersing the probes in ammonium nitrate solution. Both destructive and non-destructive characterization of mortar was performed. Destructive tests of porosity were performed using a vacuum saturation method and non-destructive characterization was carried out using ultrasonic velocities. Aging experiments show that mortar degradation not only involves a porosity increase, but also microstructural changes in the cement matrix. Experimental results show that the estimated porosity using the proposed non-destructive methodology had a comparable performance to classical destructive techniques.

  2. Relationship Between Mitochondrial DNA Mutations and Aging. Estimation of Age-at-death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2016-04-01

    Some studies have pointed to the relationship between mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations and age in different tissues, which are potentially interesting in aging research and in forensic identification because they could help to improve the estimation of age-at-death. The present study aims to evaluate the mutations in mtDNA from dentin and pulp and their relation with age. Healthy erupted third molars were extracted from individuals from two Spanish populations, aged 20-70. When analyzing the amplification of hypervariable region 2 of the mtDNA by real-time polymerase chain reaction, a negative strong linear correlation was found between the mtDNA amplification and age in dentin from both populations. In contrast, a significant correlation between mtDNA amplification and age in pulp was not discovered, probably due to the majority of the mitochondria are placed in dentin. A difference in mtDNA damage between these two populations was also detected, indicating the role of ancestry as a component. The findings from this research enrich the current studies related to aging and mitochondrial damage and provide a new quantitative tool for estimating the age-at-death that, in combination with traditional age markers, could improve identification accuracy in forensic cases. PMID:26286606

  3. Age estimation of bloodstains using smartphones and digital image analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanakiatkrai, Phuvadol; Yaodam, Alisa; Kitpipit, Thitika

    2013-12-10

    Recent studies on bloodstains have focused on determining the time since deposition of bloodstains, which can provide useful temporal information to forensic investigations. This study is the first to use smartphone cameras in combination with a truly low-cost illumination system as a tool to estimate the age of bloodstains. Bloodstains were deposited on various substrates and photographed with a smartphone camera. Three smartphones (Samsung Galaxy S Plus, Apple iPhone 4, and Apple iPad 2) were compared. The environmental effects - temperature, humidity, light exposure, and anticoagulant - on the bloodstain age estimation process were explored. The color values from the digital images were extracted and correlated with time since deposition. Magenta had the highest correlation (R(2)=0.966) and was used in subsequent experiments. The Samsung Galaxy S Plus was the most suitable smartphone as its magenta decreased exponentially with increasing time and had highest repeatability (low variation within and between pictures). The quantifiable color change observed is consistent with well-established hemoglobin denaturation process. Using a statistical classification technique called Random Forests™, we could predict bloodstain age accurately up to 42 days with an error rate of 12%. Additionally, the age of forty blind stains were all correctly predicted, and 83% of mock casework samples were correctly classified. No within- and between-person variations were observed (p>0.05), while smartphone camera, temperature, humidity, and substrate color influenced the age determination process in different ways. Our technique provides a cheap, rapid, easy-to-use, and truly portable alternative to more complicated analysis using specialized equipment, e.g. spectroscopy and HPLC. No training is necessary with our method, and we envision a smartphone application that could take user inputs of environmental factors and provide an accurate estimate of bloodstain age. PMID:24314532

  4. Aging Study and Lifetime Estimation of Transformer Mineral Oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad R. Meshkatoddini

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Power transformer is the most expensive equipment in electrical network; and the mineral oil has the main roles of insulating and cooling in it. Oil is subjected to the degradation because of the ageing, high temperature and chemical reactions such as the oxidation. Then the oil condition has to be checked regularly and reclaimed or replaced when necessary, to avoid the sudden failure of the transformer. It will be very desirable also if we can predict the transformer oil remaining lifetime, from time to time. Approach: An experimental study was accomplished on the used oil specimens coming from several power transformers of various ages, working in Iranian power network, to recognize the correlation between the real age of the oil and the rate of its different characteristics and to know the most appropriate property which can represent its ageing. Accelerated aging experiments were accomplished on oil specimens at different temperatures. Furthermore a method for estimation of the remaining lifetime of the oil, using Arrhenius law, was employed. Results: According to our experiments, it was verified that, by using Celsius degrees and natural logarithm, the Arrhenius law can be applied properly to the thermal degradation phenomena of the oil. Conclusion: It was shown that the presented method can be used to study the degradation of transformer mineral oil and to estimate its remaining lifetime.

  5. Digital approach for measuring dentin translucency in forensic age estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simranjit Singh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Dentin translucency is best suited for age estimation not only in terms of accuracy but also in terms of simplicity. Conventionally, translucency has been measured using calipers. Computer-based methods have been proposed for the same, although these required the use of custom-built software programs. Objectives: The objectives of the study were to use a simple digital method to measure dentinal translucency on sectioned teeth and to compare digital measurements to conventionally obtained translucency measurements. Materials and Methods: Fifty extracted permanent teeth were collected and were sectioned to 250 μm. Translucency measurements were obtained using the digital method and compared with those obtained using a caliper. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both methods (P < 0.001, and marginally higher for the conventional approach (r = 0.4671. Application of derived linear regression equations on an independent sample (n = 10 revealed a similar ability of both the methods to assess age to within ±5 years of the actual age. Conclusion: The translucency measurements obtained by the two methods were very similar, with no clear superiority of one method over the other. Hence, further studies on a large scale are warranted to determine which method is more reliable to estimate the age.

  6. Computerized geometric features of carpal bone for bone age estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chi-Wen Hsieh; Tai-Lang Jong; Yi-Hong Chou; Chui-Mei Tiu

    2007-01-01

    Background Bone age development is one of the significant indicators depicting the growth status of children.However, bone age assessment is an heuristic and tedious work for pediatricians. We developed a computerized bone age estimation system based on the analysis of geometric features of carpal bones.Methods The geometric features of carpals were extracted and analyzed to judge the bone age of children by computerized shape and area description. Four classifiers, linear, nearest neighbor, back-propagation neural network,and radial basis function neural network, were adopted to categorize bone age. Principal component and discriminate analyses were employed to improve assorting accuracy.Results The hand X-ray films of 465 boys and 444 girls served as our database. The features were extracted from carpal bone images, including shape, area, and sequence. The proposed normalization area ratio method was effective in bone age classification by simulation. Besides, features statistics showed similar results between the standard of the Greulich and Pyle atlas and our database.Conclusions The bone area has a higher discriminating power to judge bone age. The ossification sequence of trapezium and trapezoid bones between Taiwanese and the atlas of the GP method is quite different. These results also indicate that carpal bone assessment with classification of neural networks can be correct and practical.

  7. Estimating Twin Pair Concordance for Age of Onset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H; Hjelmborg, Jacob B; Holst, Klaus K

    2015-01-01

    Twin and family data provide a key source for evaluating inheritance of specific diseases. A standard analysis of such data typically involves the computation of prevalences and different concordance measures such as the casewise concordance, that is the probability that one twin has the disease...... develop the disease. The aim of this contribution is to show that the standard casewise concordance and standard prevalence estimators do not work in general for age-of-onset data. We show how one can in fact do something easy and simple even with censored data. The key is to take age into account when...

  8. Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Rehfeld

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011 and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013 against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF. We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60–55% (in the linear case to 53–42% (for the nonlinear processes of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time

  9. Fetal age estimation using MSCT scans of the mandible.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minier, Marie; Dedouit, Fabrice; Maret, Delphine; Vergnault, Marion; Mokrane, Fathima-Zohra; Rousseau, Hervé; Adalian, Pascal; Telmon, Norbert; Rougé, Daniel

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine a documented fetal collection, to carry out morphometric analysis of femoral length and of the mandible, and to develop diagnostic standards for estimating fetal age at death based on multislice computed tomography (MSCT) reconstructions. The sample was composed of 81 fetuses, whose ages were recorded in weeks of amenorrhea (WA) between 20 to 40 WA. The measurements made were femoral length (FL) and six distances and four angles of the mandible. Femoral length was measured in 81 fetuses (39 females and 42 males). Morphometric study of the mandible was carried out in 65 fetuses (31 females and 34 males), as the mandible was missing in 16 fetuses. R software was used for statistical analyses. Coefficient correlation (R(2)) and linear regression formulas were calculated. Intra-observer and inter-observer variabilities were very satisfactory (intra-class correlation coefficient ≥0.95). Our method appears to be reliable and reproducible. Femoral length was most strongly correlated with age (R(2) = 0.9). The measurement of six distances and four mandible angles from four landmark positions showed a correlation similar to the femoral length correlation (R(2) ≥ 0.72). The results of this study agreed with those of the literature. We conclude that the mandible is a reliable indicator for estimating fetal age at death. Moreover, MSCT has been shown to be an innovative and reliable technology for this purpose. PMID:24213737

  10. Age estimation from physiological changes of teeth: A reliable age marker?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishant Singh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Age is an essential factor in establishing the identity of a person. Teeth are one of the most durable and resilient part of skeleton. Gustafson (1950 suggested the use of six retrogressive dental changes that are seen with increasing age. Aim: The aim of the study was to evaluate the results and to check the reliability of modified Gustafson′s method for determining the age of an individual. Materials and Methods: Total 70 patients in the age group of 20-65 years, undergoing extraction were included in this present work. The ground sections of extracted teeth were prepared and examined under the microscope. Modified Gustafson′s criteria were used for the estimation of age. Degree of attrition, root translucency, secondary dentin deposition, cementum apposition, and root resorption were measured. A linear regression formula was obtained using different statistical equations in a sample of 70 patients. Results: The mean age difference of total 70 cases studied was ±2.64 years. Difference of actual and calculated age was significant and was observed at 5% level of significance, that is, t-cal > t-tab (t-cal = 7.72. P < 0.05, indicates that the results were statistically significant. Conclusion: The present study concludes that Gustafson′s method is a reliable method for age estimation with some proposed modifications.

  11. Estimating the age of alleles by use of intraallelic variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slatkin, M.; Rannala, B. [Univ of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1997-02-01

    A method is presented for estimating the age of an allele by use of its frequency and the extent of variation among different copies. The method uses the joint distribution of the number of copies in a population sample and the coalescence times of the intraallelic gene genealogy conditioned on the number of copies. The linear birth-death process is used to approximate the dynamics of a rare allele in a finite population. A maximum-likelihood estimate of the age of the allele is obtained by Monte Carlo integration over the coalescence times. The method is applied to two alleles at the cystic fibrosis (CFTR) locus, {Delta}F508 and G542X, for which intraallelic variability at three intronic microsatellite loci has been examined. Our results indicate that G542X is somewhat older than {Delta}F508. Although absolute estimates depend on the mutation rates at the microsatellite loci, our results support the hypothesis that {Delta}F508 arose <500 generations ({approx}10,000 years) ago. 32 refs., 4 figs.

  12. Human age estimation combining third molar and skeletal development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Kaur, J; Willems, G

    2012-03-01

    The wide prediction intervals obtained with age estimation methods based on third molar development could be reduced by combining these dental observations with age-related skeletal information. Therefore, on cephalometric radiographs, the most accurate age-estimating skeletal variable and related registration method were searched and added to a regression model, with age as response and third molar stages as explanatory variable. In a pilot set up on a dataset of 496 (283 M; 213 F) cephalometric radiographs, the techniques of Baccetti et al. (2005) (BA), Seedat et al. (2005) (SE), Caldas et al. (2007) and Rai et al. (2008) (RA) were verified. In the main study, data from 460 (208 F, 224 M) individuals in an age range between 3 and 26 years, for which at the same day an orthopantogram and a cephalogram were taken, were collected. On the orthopantomograms, the left third molar development was registered using the scoring system described by Gleiser and Hunt (1955) and modified by Köhler (1994) (GH). On the cephalograms, cervical vertebrae development was registered according to the BA and SE techniques. A regression model, with age as response and the GH scores as explanatory variable, was fitted to the data. Next, information of BA, SE and BA + SE was, respectively, added to this model. From all obtained models, the determination coefficients and the root mean squared errors were calculated. Inclusion of information from cephalograms based on the BA, as well as the SE, technique improved the amount of explained variance in age acquired from panoramic radiographs using the GH technique with 48%. Inclusion of cephalometric BA + SE information marginally improved the previous result (+1%). The RMSE decreased with 1.93, 1.85 and 2.03 years by adding, respectively, BA, SE and BA + SE information to the GH model. The SE technique allows clinically the fastest and easiest registration of the degree of development of the cervical vertebrae. Therefore, the choice of

  13. Human dental age estimation combining third molar(s) development and tooth morphological age predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Galiti, D; Willems, G

    2012-11-01

    In the subadult age group, third molar development, as well as age-related morphological tooth information can be observed on panoramic radiographs. The aim of present study was to combine, in subadults, panoramic radiographic data based on developmental stages of third molar(s) and morphological measurements from permanent teeth, in order to evaluate its added age-predicting performances. In the age range between 15 and 23 years, 25 gender-specific radiographs were collected within each age category of 1 year. Third molar development was classified and registered according the 10-point staging and scoring technique proposed by Gleiser and Hunt (1955), modified by Köhler (1994). The Kvaal (1995) measuring technique was applied on the indicated teeth from the individuals' left side. Linear regression models with age as response and third molar-scored stages as explanatory variables were developed, and morphological measurements from permanent teeth were added. From the models, determination coefficients (R (2)) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were calculated. Maximal-added age information was reported as a 6 % R² increase and a 0.10-year decrease of RMSE. Forensic dental age estimations on panoramic radiographic data in the subadult group (15-23 year) should only be based on third molar development.

  14. Optimal dental age estimation practice in United Arab Emirates' children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altalie, Salem; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2014-03-01

    The aim of the study was to detect whether the Willems model, developed on a Belgian reference sample, can be used for age estimations in United Arab Emirates (UAE) children. Furthermore, it was verified that if added third molars development information in children provided more accurate age predictions. On 1900 panoramic radiographs, the development of left mandibular permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) was registered according the Demirjian and the Kohler technique, respectively. The PT data were used to verify the Willems model and to develop a UAE model and to verify it. Multiple regression models with PT, TM, and PT + TM scores as independent and age as dependent factor were developed. Comparing the verified Willems- and the UAE model revealed differences in mean error of -0.01 year, mean absolute error of 0.01 year and root mean squared error of 0.90 year. Neglectable overall decrease in RMSE was detected combining PM and TM developmental information.

  15. Bayesian mass and age estimates for transiting exoplanet host stars

    CERN Document Server

    Maxted, P F L; Southworth, J

    2014-01-01

    The mean density of a star transited by a planet, brown dwarf or low mass star can be accurately measured from its light curve. This measurement can be combined with other observations to estimate its mass and age by comparison with stellar models. Our aim is to calculate the posterior probability distributions for the mass and age of a star given its density, effective temperature, metallicity and luminosity. We computed a large grid of stellar models that densely sample the appropriate mass and metallicity range. The posterior probability distributions are calculated using a Markov-chain Monte-Carlo method. The method has been validated by comparison to the results of other stellar models and by applying the method to stars in eclipsing binary systems with accurately measured masses and radii. We have explored the sensitivity of our results to the assumed values of the mixing-length parameter, $\\alpha_{\\rm MLT}$, and initial helium mass fraction, Y. For a star with a mass of 0.9 solar masses and an age of 4...

  16. Age estimation by radiological assessment of proximal tibial epiphysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swapnil Patond

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The age estimation of living individual is of critical importance in forensic practice, there is no statistical data to establish variation in epiphyseal fusion in population of central India. This significant oversight can lead to exclusion of persons of interest in a forensic investigation. Methodology: Epiphyseal fusion of proximal end of Tibia in 150 individuals was analyzed on radiological basis to assess the range of variation of epiphyseal fusion at each age. In the study the X ray films of the subjects were divided into three groups on the basis of degree of fusion. Firstly, those which were showing No Epiphyseal Fusion (N, secondly those showing Partial Union (PC, and thirdly those showing Complete Fusion (C. Result: Observations made were compared with the previous radiological studies. The process of ossification was completed remarkably faster in females than males. The ossification at proximal end of Tibia at the Knee joint in males and Females is completed in all instances (100% at the age groups of 18-20 years and 16-20 year respectively.From this study; range of 1-2 years of margin of error can be concluded. Conclusion: By comparing the available literature about ossification of long bones, fusion was delayed one to three years in this study with population of Central India than those parts of south India and population of Bengal. By comparing the available literature the age of skeletal maturity in both males and females in this region are nearly similar to those in population of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan and Karnataka.

  17. Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  18. Precise age estimation from different ageing structures in the striped snakehead, Channa striata (Bloch,1793, collected from the river Ganga

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salman Khan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In Channa striata (N=156; TL=17-60cm sampled from the river Ganga, the annuli laid on different ageing structures such as otoliths (whole and sectioned, scales, opercular bone and vertebrae were observed for age estimation. Standard procedures were followed to prepare and study the age structures. Age estimates obtained from different hard structures were analysed to calculate the parameters for precise age estimation viz., APE, CV and PA. The sectioned otoliths showed the highest (89.9% percentage of agreement between readers while least average percent error (1.20% and coefficient of variation (3.81% values between two readers. Thus sectioned otoliths were considered to be the most suitable method for estimating age in C. striata. When sectioned otoliths were compared with other bony structures, the highest percent agreement and lowest average percent error and coefficient of variation values were found between sectioned otoliths and whole otoliths age estimates.

  19. Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara eWaller Skoog

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by naïve listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged and old adults. They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60-65 years speakers in comparison with younger (20-25 years speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40-45 years speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed.

  20. Estimating The Age-Productivity Profile Using Lifetime Earnings

    OpenAIRE

    Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

    1988-01-01

    Understanding how productivity varies with age is important for a variety of reasons. A decline in productivity with age implies that aging societies must increasingly depend on the labor supply of the young and middle age. It also means that policies designed to keep the elderly in the work force, while potentially good for the elderly, may decrease overall productivity. A third implication is that, absent government intervention, employers may not be willing to hire the elderly for the same...

  1. So You Think You Look Young? Matching Older Adults' Subjective Ages with Age Estimations Provided by Younger, Middle-Aged, and Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotter-Gruhn, Dana; Hess, Thomas M.

    2012-01-01

    Perceived age plays an important role in the context of age identity and social interactions. To examine how accurate individuals are in estimating how old they look and how old others are, younger, middle-aged, and older adults rated photographs of older target persons (for whom we had information about objective and subjective age) in terms of…

  2. 77 FR 4000 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-26

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2011, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  3. 76 FR 37314 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-27

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2010, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  4. 78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-30

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ] ACTION: General notice announcing population estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  5. 75 FR 4343 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-27

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2009, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  6. Statistical Estimation of the Age of the Universe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jørgen Holm

    The Hubble constant enters big bang cosmology by quantifying the expansion rate of the universe. It is shown that the standard technique for estimation of Hubble's constant is statistically inconsistent and results in a systematically too low value. An alternative, consistent estimator of Hubble...

  7. Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Wei Zhao; Han Wang

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very simil...

  8. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

  9. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula A White

    Full Text Available Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR. Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

  10. Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age

    OpenAIRE

    Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by “naïve” listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or ...

  11. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy W Grovenburg

    Full Text Available New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i

  12. The ossification pattern in paediatric occipito-cervical spine: is it possible to estimate real age?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aim: To retrospectively analyse the synchondrosis from the occipital bone to the whole cervical spine and determine the feasibility and validity of age estimation using computed tomography (CT) images. Material and methods: A total of 231 cervical spine or neck CT images of young children (<7 years of age) were examined. Twelve ossification centres were assessed (occiput: n = 2; atlas: n = 2; axis, n = 6; whole sub-axial vertebra: n = 2), and the ossification process was graded as open (O, fully lucent), osseous bridging (B, partially ossified), and fusion (F, totally ossified). After the first analysis was completed, the resulting chronological chart was used to estimate the age of 10 new cases in order to confirm the usefulness of the chart. Results: Infancy was easily estimated using the sub-axial or C2 posterior ossification centres, while the posterior occipital regions provided good estimation of age between 1–2 years. The most difficult period for accurate age estimation was between 2–4 years. However, the C2 anterior (neurocentral ossification) and C1 posterior regions did yield information to help determine the age around 3 years. The anterior occipital region was useful for age estimation between 4–5 years, and the C1-anterior region was potentially useful to help decide among the other parameters. The test for age estimation (TAE) had a very high ICC score (0.973) among the three observers. Conclusion: Segmentalised analysis can enhance the ability to estimate real age, at least by the year. The analysis of the occipital bone made a strong contribution to the usefulness of the chorological chart. An organised chronological chart can provide readily available information for age estimation, and the primary application of the above data (TAE) demonstrated the validity of this approach. -- Highlights: •Subaxial or C2 posterior regions was useful for age estimation between 0–1 year. •Posterior occipital regions provided good estimation of

  13. Spatially explicit estimation of forest age by integrating remotely sensed data and inverse yield modeling techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Frate L; Carranza ML; Garfì V; Febbraro MD; Tonti D; Marchetti M; Ottaviano M.; Santopuoli G; Chirici G

    2016-01-01

    In this work we present an innovative method based on the application of inverse yield models for producing spatially explicit estimations of forest age. Firstly, a raster growing stock volume map was produced using the non-parametric k-Nearest Neighbors estimation method on the basis of IRS LISS-III remotely sensed imagery and field data collected in the framework of a local forest inventory. Secondly, species specific inverted yield equations were applied to estimate forest age as a functio...

  14. Evaluating the Reliability of Three Different Dental Age Estimation Methods in Visakhapatnam Children

    OpenAIRE

    Patnana, Arun Kumar; Vabbalareddy, Raja Sekhar; V Vanga, Narasimha Rao

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT% Dental age is important for treatment planning in the specialities of pedodontics and orthodontics. Although, Demirjian's method was considered standard for dental age estimation, it may not be reliable for all population. Aim: The goal of the study was to evaluate the reliability of Demir-jian's, Haavikko's and Willems method of dental age estimation methods in Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh, India) children. Study design: One hundred and two children of 6 to 14 years old who underw...

  15. Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen, Sara Tangmose;

    2016-01-01

    When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regres...... the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range.......When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical...... regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple...

  16. Estimation of age structure of fish populations from length-frequency data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A probability model is presented to determine the age structure of a fish population from length-frequency data. It is shown that when the age-length key is available, maximum-likelihood estimates of the age structure can be obtained. When the key is not available, approximate estimates of the age structure can be obtained. The model is used for determination of the age structure of populations of channel catfish and white crappie. Practical applications of the model to impact assessment are discussed

  17. Dental age estimation based on third molar eruption in First Nation people of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmeling, A; Olze, A; Pynn, B R; Kraul, V; Schulz, R; Heinecke, A; Pfeiffer, H

    2010-12-01

    Forensic age estimation of living subjects has become an increasing focus of interest in modern society. One main criterion for dental age estimation in the relevant age group is the evaluation of third molar eruption. The importance of ethnic variation in dental development requires population specific data for dental age evaluation. In the present study, we determined the stages of third molar eruption in 347 female and 258 male First Nations people of Canada aged 11 to 29 years based on radiological evidence from 605 conventional orthopantomograms. The results presented here provide data on the age of alveolar, gingival, and complete eruption of the third molars in the occlusal plane that can be used for forensic estimation of the minimum and most probable ages of investigated individuals.

  18. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas [Faculty of Dentistry, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai (Thailand)

    2016-03-15

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

  19. Size-based estimation of the status of fish stocks: simulation analysis and comparison with age-based estimations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokkalis, Alexandros; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Nielsen, Anders;

    which leads to the maximum sustainable yield. A simulation analysis was done to investigate the sensitivity of the estimation and its improvement when stock specific life history information is available. To evaluate our approach with real observations, data-rich fish stocks, like the North Sea cod......Estimation of the status of fish stocks is important for sustainable management. Data limitations and data quality hinder this task. The commonly used age-based approaches require information about individual age, which is costly and relatively inaccurate. In contrast, the size of organisms...... is linked to physiology more directly than is age, and can be measured easier with less cost. In this work we used a single-species size-based model to estimate the fishing mortality (F) and the status of the stock, quantified by the ratio F/Fmsy between actual fishing mortality and the fishing mortality...

  20. New Method of Age Estimation from Maxillary Sutures Closure in a Thai Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinthubua, A; Theera-Umpon, N; Auephanwiriyakul, S; Ruengdit, S; Das, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation is one of the major components of forensic identification. Cranial suture closure has long been used as indicator for age estimation. Maxillary sutures have been less studied for estimation of age at death because they vary in their timing of closure with age. The purpose of this study was to estimate age by examining 190 Thai skulls with age ranging between 15-93 years from Forensic Osteology Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, and Chiang Mai University. Four parts of maxillary suture (incisive, anterior, transverse, and posterior sutures) were investigated the suture obliteration of each suture by computerizing from photograph. The suture were measured by pixel counting.The prediction model which based on the support vector machine (SVM) for regression or support vector regression (SVR) was utilized for data analysis. The results showed high correlation (R2 = 0.9086) between the predicted age and actual age. Plot between actual age group and predicted age in seven groups also revealed high correlation (R2 = 0.9434). These can be implied that we are able to use this SVR model to predict age at death using maxillary suture information.The interesting issue is to further apply this model in more cases to ensure the generalization of the finding. This study is the first attempt to estimate age at death using a new method based on novel analysis which considers a characteristic of relationship between maxillary suture closures with age that are not in linear form. The present study may contribute as a basis knowledge and method for further study of age estimation in archaeological and forensic anthropological contexts, especially when only skull or base of skull are found. PMID:27212570

  1. Estimating the age of formation of lakes: An example from Lake Tanganyika, East African Rift system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, A.; Soreghan, M.J. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Scholz, C.A. [Duke Univ. Marine Lab., Beaufort, NC (United States)

    1993-06-01

    Age estimates for ancient lakes are important for determining their histories and their rates of biotic and tectonic evolution. In the absence of dated core material from the lake`s sedimentary basement, several techniques have been used to generate such age estimates. The most common of these, herein called the reflection seismic-radiocarbon method (RSRM), combines estimates of short-term sediment-accumulation rates derived from radiocarbon-dated cores and depth-to-basement estimates derived from reflection-seismic data at or near the same locality to estimate an age to basement. Age estimates form the RSRM suggest that the structural basins of central Lake Tanganyika began to form between 9 and 12 Ma. Estimates for the northern and southern basins are younger (7 to 8 Ma and 2 to 4 Ma, respectively). The diachroneity of estimates for different segments of the lake is equivocal, and may be due to erosional loss of record in the northern and southern structural basins or to progressive opening of the rift. The RSRM age estimates for Lake Tanganyika are considerably younger than most prior estimates and clarify the extensional history of the western branch of the East African Rift system. 31 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.; Mech, L.D.

    2000-01-01

    We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ?? 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ???9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.

  3. Postnatal growth and age estimation in Scotophilus kuhlii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shiang-Fan; Huang, Shang-Shang; Lu, Dau-Jye; Shen, Tsung-Jen

    2016-01-01

    Adequate postnatal growth is important for young bats to develop skilled sensory and locomotor abilities, which are highly associated with their survival once independent. This study investigated the postnatal growth and development of Scotophilus kuhlii in captivity. An empirical growth curve was established, and the postnatal growth rate was quantified to derive an age-predictive equation. By further controlling the fostering conditions of twins, the differences in the development patterns between pups that received maternal care or were hand-reared were analyzed to determine whether the latter developed in the same manner as their maternally reared counterparts. Our results indicate that both forearm length and body mass increased rapidly and linearly during the first 4 weeks, after which the growth rate gradually decreased to reach a stable level. The first flight occurred at an average age of 39 days with a mean forearm length and body mass of 92.07% and 70.52% of maternal size, respectively. The developmental pattern of hand-reared pups, although similar to that of their maternally reared twin siblings, displayed a slightly faster growth rate in the 4th and 5th weeks. The heavier body mass of hand-reared pups during the pre-fledging period may cause higher wing loading, potentially influencing the flight performance and survival of the bats once independent. PMID:26600428

  4. The utility of near infrared spectroscopy for age estimation of deepwater sharks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigby, Cassandra L.; Wedding, Brett B.; Grauf, Steve; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.

    2014-12-01

    Reliable age information is vital for effective fisheries management, yet age determinations are absent for many deepwater sharks as they cannot be aged using traditional methods of growth bands counts. An alternative approach to ageing using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated using dorsal fin spines, vertebrae and fin clips of three species of deepwater sharks. Ages were successfully estimated for the two dogfish, Squalus megalops and Squalus montalbani, and NIRS spectra were correlated with body size in the catshark, Asymbolus pallidus. Correlations between estimated-ages of the dogfish dorsal fin spines and their NIRS spectra were good, with S. megalops R2=0.82 and S. montalbani R2=0.73. NIRS spectra from S. megalops vertebrae and fin clips that have no visible growth bands were correlated with estimated-ages, with R2=0.89 and 0.76, respectively. NIRS has the capacity to non-lethally estimate ages from fin spines and fin clips, and thus could significantly reduce the numbers of sharks that need to be lethally sampled for ageing studies. The detection of ageing materials by NIRS in poorly calcified deepwater shark vertebrae could potentially enable ageing of this group of sharks that are vulnerable to exploitation.

  5. Gene expression during blow fly development: improving the precision of age estimates in forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

    2011-01-01

    Forensic entomologists use size and developmental stage to estimate blow fly age, and from those, a postmortem interval. Since such estimates are generally accurate but often lack precision, particularly in the older developmental stages, alternative aging methods would be advantageous. Presented here is a means of incorporating developmentally regulated gene expression levels into traditional stage and size data, with a goal of more precisely estimating developmental age of immature Lucilia sericata. Generalized additive models of development showed improved statistical support compared to models that did not include gene expression data, resulting in an increase in estimate precision, especially for postfeeding third instars and pupae. The models were then used to make blind estimates of development for 86 immature L. sericata raised on rat carcasses. Overall, inclusion of gene expression data resulted in increased precision in aging blow flies.

  6. Heterogeneous Rates of Molecular Evolution and Diversification Could Explain the Triassic Age Estimate for Angiosperms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C; Crane, Peter; Donoghue, Michael J

    2015-09-01

    Dating analyses based on molecular data imply that crown angiosperms existed in the Triassic, long before their undisputed appearance in the fossil record in the Early Cretaceous. Following a re-analysis of the age of angiosperms using updated sequences and fossil calibrations, we use a series of simulations to explore the possibility that the older age estimates are a consequence of (i) major shifts in the rate of sequence evolution near the base of the angiosperms and/or (ii) the representative taxon sampling strategy employed in such studies. We show that both of these factors do tend to yield substantially older age estimates. These analyses do not prove that younger age estimates based on the fossil record are correct, but they do suggest caution in accepting the older age estimates obtained using current relaxed-clock methods. Although we have focused here on the angiosperms, we suspect that these results will shed light on dating discrepancies in other major clades.

  7. An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

    2011-01-01

    Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

  8. Estimating age of sea otters with cementum layers in the first premolar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodkin, J.L.; Ames, J.A.; Jameson, R.J.; Johnson, A.M.; Matson, G.M.

    1997-01-01

    We assessed sources of variation in the use of tooth cementum layers to determine age by comparing counts in premolar tooth sections to known ages of 20 sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Three readers examined each sample 3 times, and the 3 readings of each sample were averaged by reader to provide the mean estimated age. The mean (SE) of known age sample was 5.2 years (1.0) and the 3 mean estimated ages were 7.0 (1.0), 5.9 (1.1) and, 4.4 (0.8). The proportion of estimates accurate to within +/- 1 year were 0.25, 0.55, and 0.65 and to within +/- 2 years 0.65, 0.80, and 0.70, by reader. The proportions of samples estimated with >3 years error were 0.20, 0.10, and 0.05. Errors as large as 7, 6, and 5 years were made among readers. In few instances did all readers uniformly provide either accurate (error 1 yr) counts. In most cases (0.85), 1 or 2 of the readers provided accurate counts. Coefficients of determination (R2) between known ages and mean estimated ages were 0.81, 0.87, and 0.87, by reader. The results of this study suggest that cementum layers within sea otter premolar teeth likely are deposited annually and can be used for age estimation. However, criteria used in interpreting layers apparently varied by reader, occasionally resulting in large errors, which were not consistent among readers. While large errors were evident for some individual otters, there were no differences between the known and estimated age-class distribution generated by each reader. Until accuracy can be improved, application of this ageing technique should be limited to sample sizes of at least 6-7 individuals within age classes of >/=1 year.

  9. Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

    2015-12-01

    A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years.

  10. Is Greulich–Pyle age estimation applicable for determining maturation in male Africans?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan G. Morri

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Skeletal age estimation as a means of assessing development and skeletal maturation in children and adolescents is of great importance for clinical and forensic purposes. The skeletal age of a test population is estimated by comparison with established standards, the most common standards being those in the Radiographic atlas of skeletal development of the hand and wristpublished by Greulich and Pyle in 1959. These standards are based on the assumption that skeletal maturity in male individuals is attained by the chronological age of 19 years. Although they have been widely tested, the applicability of these standards to contemporary populations has yet to be tested on a population of African biological origin living in South Africa. We therefore estimated the skeletal age of 131 male Africans aged between 13 and 21 years, using the Greulich–Pyle method which we applied to pre-existing hand–wrist radiographs. Estimated skeletal age was compared to the known chronological age for each radiograph. Skeletal age was on average approximately 6 months younger than chronological age. The Greulich–Pyle method underestimated skeletal age for approximately 74%of the sample and overestimated skeletal age for 26%of the sample. Skeletal maturity as characterised by complete epiphyseal fusion occurred approximately 2.1 years later than Greulich and Pyle’s estimate of 19 years. Thus skeletal maturation was still in progress in a large proportion of the 20- and 21-year-old individuals in our study. The Greulich–Pyle method showed high precision but low accuracy and was therefore not directly applicable to African male individuals. Formulation of skeletal age estimation standards specific to South African populations is therefore recommended.

  11. Age Estimates of Universe: from Globular Clusters to Cosmological Models and Probes

    CERN Document Server

    Fatima, Hira; Rahman, Syed Faisal Ur

    2016-01-01

    We performed the photometric analysis of M2 and M92 globular clusters in g and r bands of SLOAN photometric system. We transformed these g and r bands into BV bands of Johnson-Cousins photometric system and built the color magnitude diagram (CMD). We estimated the age, and metallicity of both the clusters, by fitting Padova isochrones of different age and metallicities onto the CMD. We studied Einstein and de Sitter model, bench mark model, the cosmological parameters by WMAP and Planck surveys. Finally, we compared estimated age of globular clusters to the ages from the cosmological models and cosmological parameters values of WMAP and Planck surveys.

  12. Influence of sectioning location on age estimates from common carp dorsal spines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, Carson J.; Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Dorsal spines have been shown to provide precise age estimates for Common CarpCyprinus carpio and are commonly used by management agencies to gain information on Common Carp populations. However, no previous studies have evaluated variation in the precision of age estimates obtained from different sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. We evaluated the precision, relative readability, and distribution of age estimates obtained from various sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. Dorsal spines from 192 Common Carp were sectioned at the base (section 1), immediately distal to the basal section (section 2), and at 25% (section 3), 50% (section 4), and 75% (section 5) of the total length of the dorsal spine. The exact agreement and within-1-year agreement among readers was highest and the coefficient of variation lowest for section 2. In general, age estimates derived from sections 2 and 3 had similar age distributions and displayed the highest concordance in age estimates with section 1. Our results indicate that sections taken at ≤ 25% of the total length of the dorsal spine can be easily interpreted and provide precise estimates of Common Carp age. The greater consistency in age estimates obtained from section 2 indicates that by using a standard sectioning location, fisheries scientists can expect age-based estimates of population metrics to be more comparable and thus more useful for understanding Common Carp population dynamics.

  13. Artificial Neural Networks and Gene Expression Programing based age estimation using facial features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baddrud Z. Laskar

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work is about estimating human age automatically through analysis of facial images. It has got a lot of real-world applications. Due to prompt advances in the fields of machine vision, facial image processing, and computer graphics, automatic age estimation via faces in computer is one of the dominant topics these days. This is due to widespread real-world applications, in areas of biometrics, security, surveillance, control, forensic art, entertainment, online customer management and support, along with cosmetology. As it is difficult to estimate the exact age, this system is to estimate a certain range of ages. Four sets of classifications have been used to differentiate a person’s data into one of the different age groups. The uniqueness about this study is the usage of two technologies i.e., Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and Gene Expression Programing (GEP to estimate the age and then compare the results. New methodologies like Gene Expression Programing (GEP have been explored here and significant results were found. The dataset has been developed to provide more efficient results by superior preprocessing methods. This proposed approach has been developed, tested and trained using both the methods. A public data set was used to test the system, FG-NET. The quality of the proposed system for age estimation using facial features is shown by broad experiments on the available database of FG-NET.

  14. Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini

    2015-01-01

    Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464

  15. Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navaneetha Cugati

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere′s method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere′s method of age estimation. The subjects′ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g, ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s, number of tooth with completed root formation (N 0 and the first-order interaction between s and N 0 . Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553N o -1.096s - 0.380s.N o , where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere′s formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size.

  16. Skeletal age estimation in a contemporary Western Australian population using the Tanner-Whitehouse method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggio, Ariane; Flavel, Ambika; Hart, Rob; Franklin, Daniel

    2016-06-01

    Various age estimation techniques have been utilised in Australia to evaluate the age of individuals who do not have documentation to determine legal majority/culpability. These age estimation techniques rely on the assessment of skeletal development as visualised in radiographs, CT scans, MRI or ultrasound modalities, and subsequent comparison to reference standards. These standards are not always population specific and are thus known to be less accurate when applied outside of the original reference sample, leading to potential ethical implications. Therefore, the present study aims to: (i) explore the variation in developmental trajectories between the established Tanner-Whitehouse (TW) age estimation standards and a Western Australian population; and (ii) develop specific hand-wrist age estimation standards for the latter population. The present study examines digital anterior-posterior hand-wrist radiographs of 360 individuals 0 to 24.9 years of age, equally represented by sex. Each radiograph was assessed using the RUS, Carpal and 20-bone methods of Tanner et al. The standard error of the estimate (SEE) was calculated for each method (range: ♀ SEE ±0.4-11.5 years; ♂ SEE ±0.9-10.1 years). The most accurate method was TW3 RUS for females and the TW2 Carpal system for males. The 50th centile skeletal maturity scores for each year age group were plotted against average chronological age to produce polynomial regression standards with a demonstrated accuracy of (♀ SEE ±0.09-3.46 years; ♂ SEE ±0.02-3.42 years) for females and males, respectively. The standards presented here can be used in future forensic investigations that require age estimation of hand-wrist bones in a Western Australian population, however, they are not appropriate for establishing age of majority (18 years), as skeletal maturity was attained on average earlier than 15 years of age in both sexes for all three systems examined. PMID:27080619

  17. Dental age estimation from the developmental stage of the third molars in western Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guo; Ren, Jiayin; Zhao, Shuping; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Na; Wu, Wanhong; Yuan, Shanshan; Wang, Hu

    2012-06-10

    The purpose of this study is to provide reference data about estimating dental age from third molars of the western Chinese population for comparing with other populations and being applied to the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents. A total of 2078 digital panoramic radiographs of 989 male and 1089 female Chinese subjects aged between 5 and 23 years were examined. The mineralization status of the third molars was assessed using the formation stages described by Demirjian et al. with two modifications. The results showed that the development of third molars in the western Chinese population was likely to begin at age 5 in both males and females. The third molars 28 and 48 showed significantly higher frequency in females than in males. The third molars 18 in the stage 1, 38 in the stages 1, A and G, and 48 in the stage H showed significantly older average age in females than in males. The Demirjian's stages C and D could be used as a reference stage to determine dichotomously whether a western Chinese is more likely to be under or above age 14 or 16, respectively. This study provided reference data for the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents by the mineralization stages of the third molar. Apart from forensic age determination in living subjects, the presented reference data can also be used for age estimations of unidentified corpses and skeletons.

  18. Radiological age estimation: based on third molar mineralization and eruption in Turkish children and young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadayi, Beytullah; Kaya, Ahsen; Kolusayın, Melek Ozlem; Karadayi, Sükriye; Afsin, Hüseyin; Ozaslan, Abdi

    2012-11-01

    Radiographic evaluation of mineralization and eruption stages of third molars using dental panoramic radiographies can be an efficient tool for chronological age estimation in both forensic sciences and legal medicine. The third molar tooth is utilized for dental age estimation about the age span of 15-23 years because it represents the only tooth still in development. The aim of this study is to obtain and analyze data regarding third molar development and eruption in Turkish population for dental age estimation. A total of 744 dental panoramic radiographies of 394 female and 350 male subjects aged between 8 and 22 years were examined. Third molar development was determined according to the Nolla classification system, and eruption was assessed relative to the alveolar bone level. Mandibular and maxillary third molars were generally found at similar stages of development on both sides. Nolla stage 6 (completed crown calcification) was reached at around the age of 15 in both maxillary and mandibular third molars in both sexes. Alveolar emergence was at around the age of 16 in males and around age of 17 in females. Although third molars' eruption shows greater variability than development of third molars, data which were obtained from this study about eruption of these teeth can be supportive to development data for age estimation.

  19. A method for estimating age of Danish medieval sub-adults based on long bone length

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Primeau, C.; Lynnerup, Niels; Friis, Laila Saidane;

    2012-01-01

    aging archaeological Danish sub-adults from the medieval period based on diaphyseal lengths. The problem with using data on Danish samples, which have been derived from a different population, is the possibility of skewing age estimates. In this study 58 Danish archaeological sub-adults were examined...... archaeological data. After the cross point there was a maximum difference of three years and four months higher for the archaeological data. This study has shown the importance of using data for age estimation for archaeological material which has been developed specifically for that population. In addition it......The preferred method for aging archaeological sub-adult skeletons is by dental examination. In cases where no dental records are available, age estimation may be performed according to epiphyseal union, skeletal elements or diaphyseal lengths. Currently no data have been produced specifically for...

  20. Comparison of Fundal Height Measurement and Ultrasonography for Estimation of Gestational Age

    OpenAIRE

    M Aflatoonian; M Nasirian; L Koochak-Yazdi; MR Hajiesmaeili; A Tabatabaei; M Mojibian

    2008-01-01

    Introduction: Estimation of gestational age is an essential component of prenatal care. Gestational age is estimated by Last Menopausal Period, fundal height and ultrasonography. Serial measurment of fundal height and comparison with LMP predicts the G.A more accurately. Since nowadays, ultrasonography is used more frequently during pregnancy, patients have to bear more expenses. But we can use serial measurement of fundal height for determination of G.A. This method is cheap, reliable and ea...

  1. In situ acoustic methods to estimate the physical and mechanical aging of oriented strand board

    OpenAIRE

    Bobadilla Maldonado, Ignacio; Robles, Marta; Martínez, Roberto; Iñiguez Gonzalez, Guillermo; Arriaga Martitegui, Francisco

    2011-01-01

    Following the success achieved in previous research projects usin non-destructive methods to estimate the physical and mechanical aging of particle and fibre boards, this paper studies the relationships between aging, physical and mechanical changes, using non-destructive measurements of oriented strand board (OSB). 184 pieces of OSB board from a French source were tested to analyze its actual physical and mechanical properties. The same properties were estimated using acoustic non-destructiv...

  2. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

    2015-01-01

    Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

  3. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dat Tien Nguyen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method.

  4. Estimation of embrittlement during aging of AISI 316 stainless steel TIG welds

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    J Nayak; K R Udupa; K R Hebbar; H V S Nayak

    2004-12-01

    Weldments of AISI grade 316 stainless steel, having a ferrite content of 4–6% and a variety of nitrogen concentrations were prepared using a modified element implant technique. Charpy impact specimens prepared from these weldments were subjected to a variety of aging treatments. Impact toughness decreases with aging time at all aging temperatures. Nitrogen is found to be beneficial to toughness. An empirical relation connecting the aging temperature, aging time and nitrogen content with toughness has been developed which can be used to estimate the time for embrittlement.

  5. A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

    2009-01-01

    The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (single-grain and multi-grain single-aliquot De datasets. However, the unique error properties of modern-age samples, combined with the problems of calculating natural logarithms of negative or zero-Gy De values, mean that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models currently offer the most suitable means of deriving accurate burial dose estimates for very young and

  6. Normative perceptual estimates for 91 healthy subjects age 60-75

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilms, Inge Linda; Nielsen, Simon

    2014-01-01

    of Visual Attention (TVA). In addition to the estimates themselves, we present correlational data on between the estimates and self-reported demographic data and activities of daily living. The correlates suggests that age, video gaming activity and employment status may significantly impact the encoding...

  7. Comparison of rainbow smelt age estimates from fin rays and otoliths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M.G.; Maloy, A.P.; O'Brien, T. P.

    2008-01-01

    Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, although nonnative, are an important component of the offshore food web in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Ontario, we estimate ages of rainbow smelt annually to study population dynamics such as year-class strength and age-specific growth and mortality. Since the early 1980s, we have used pectoral fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages, but the sectioning and mounting of fin rays are time and labor intensive. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of using otoliths rather than fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages. Three readers interpreted the ages of 172 rainbow smelt (60-198 mm total length) based on thin sections of pectoral fin rays, whole otoliths with no preparation, and whole otoliths that had been cleared for 1 month in a 70:30 ethanol : glycerin solution. Bias was lower and precision was greater for fin rays than for otoliths; these results were consistent for comparisons within readers (first and second readings by one individual; three readers were used) and between readers (one reading for each reader within a pair). Both otolith methods appeared to misclassify age-1 rainbow smelt. Fin ray ages had the highest precision and provided the best approximation of age estimates inferred from the Lake Ontario population's length frequency distribution and from our understanding of this population. ?? American Fisheries Society 2008.

  8. Estimation of differences and ratios of average age at first occurrence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boshuizen, H.C.; Greenland, S.

    1996-01-01

    Average age at first occurrence of a disease is easier to interpret than the incidence rate, which can be difficult to interpret for a common disease. Basic methods for estimating univariate differences and ratios for average age at first occurrence are outlined and illustrated with a real-life exam

  9. Estimation of age in forensic medicine using multivariate approach to image analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kucheryavskiy, Sergey V.; Belyaev, Ivan; Fominykh, Sergey

    2009-01-01

    A new method for victims' age estimation, based on the image processing and analysis of remains bones structure, is proposed. Digital images of lumbar vertebras cuts were used as a major information source. The age related properties were extracted from the images using classic texture analysis...

  10. Listener estimations of talker age: A meta-analysis of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Eric J; Ferguson, Sarah Hargus; Newman, Catherine Anne

    2016-10-01

    Numerous studies, most of them cross-sectional studies using one sample per talker, have demonstrated that listeners make relatively accurate age judgments from hearing talkers' voices. The current study analyzed the results of several such direct age estimation studies to characterize better the perception of talker age over a larger number of individuals. A review of the direct age estimation literature was performed. Data sets from seven papers were reconstituted, and an analysis of the combined data (meta-analysis) including 530 data points was conducted. The reconstituted and combined data included talkers aged 10-90. Listeners appeared to overestimate age when talkers were younger and to underestimate it when talkers were older. PMID:26079468

  11. Estimation of age based on tooth cementum annulations using three different microscopic methods

    OpenAIRE

    Siddharth Pundir; Susmita Saxena; Pooja Aggrawal

    2009-01-01

    Background: The hard tissues of human dentition are able to resist decay and degradation long after other tissues are lost. This resistance to decay has made teeth useful for calculation of age at death of an individual. Recent research indicates that tooth cementum annulations (TCA) may be used more reliably than other morphological or histological traits of the adult skeleton for estimation of age. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the correlation between age and the num...

  12. Exfoliative cytology: A possible tool in age estimation in forensic odontology

    OpenAIRE

    Devi Charan Shetty; Vijay Wadhwan; Kaveri Surya Khanna; Anshi Jain; Amit Gupta

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Objective: The study was undertaken with an aim to estimate the age of an individual from their buccal smears by comparing the average cell size using image analysis morphometric software. Materials and Me...

  13. A model for estimating body shape biological age based on clinical parameters associated with body composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bae CY

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Chul-Young Bae,1 Young Gon Kang,2 Young-Sung Suh,3 Jee Hye Han,4 Sung-Soo Kim,5 Kyung Won Shim61MediAge Research Center, Seoul, Korea; 2Chaum Power Aging Center, College of Medicine, CHA University, Seoul, Korea; 3Health Promotion Center, Keimyung University Dongsam Medical Center, Daegu, Korea; 4Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine, Eulji University, Seoul, Korea; 5Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, Korea; 6Department of Family Medicine, Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, KoreaBackground: To date, no studies have attempted to estimate body shape biological age using clinical parameters associated with body composition for the purposes of examining a person's body shape based on their age.Objective: We examined the relations between clinical parameters associated with body composition and chronological age, and proposed a model for estimating the body shape biological age.Methods: The study was conducted in 243,778 subjects aged between 20 and 90 years who received a general medical checkup at health promotion centers at university and community hospitals in Korea from 2004 to 2011.Results: In men, the clinical parameters with the highest correlation to age included the waist-to-hip ratio (r = 0.786, P < 0.001, hip circumference (r = −0.448, P < 0.001, and height (r = −0.377, P < 0.001. In women, the clinical parameters with the highest correlation to age include the waist-to-hip ratio (r = 0.859, P < 0.001, waist circumference (r = 0.580, P < 0.001, and hip circumference (r = 0.520, P < 0.001. To estimate the optimal body shape biological age based on clinical parameters associated with body composition, we performed a multiple regression analysis. In a model estimating the body shape biological age, the coefficient of determination (R2 was 0.71 in men and 0.76 in women.Conclusion: Our model for estimating body shape biological age

  14. Age estimation by 3D CT-scans of the Borremose Woman, a Danish bog body

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villa, Chiara; Møller Rasmussen, Maria; Lynnerup, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Non-invasive estimation of age at death has been carried out by using 3D CT scanning of a bog body discovered in 1948 in a peat bog in Borremose (Denmark). The bog body has been dated to the 8th century BC, in the last part of the Bronze Age. The skeletal structures useful for age estimation have...... been visualized from CT-scans using the Mimics software from Materialise. Extensive manual editing was necessary, as is common with bog bodies, since the bones were severely degraded and the ordinary range of Hounsfield Units (HU), used for clinical work, is not suitable. Only the cranium, the left...

  15. Human age estimation from blood using mRNA, DNA methylation, DNA rearrangement, and telomere length.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubakov, Dmitry; Liu, Fan; Kokmeijer, Iris; Choi, Ying; van Meurs, Joyce B J; van IJcken, Wilfred F J; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Broer, Linda; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Lewin, Jörn; Kayser, Manfred

    2016-09-01

    Establishing the age of unknown persons, or persons with unknown age, can provide important leads in police investigations, disaster victim identification, fraud cases, and in other legal affairs. Previous methods mostly relied on morphological features available from teeth or skeletal parts. The development of molecular methods for age estimation allowing to use human specimens that possess no morphological age information, such as bloodstains, is extremely valuable as this type of samples is commonly found at crime scenes. Recently, we introduced a DNA-based approach for human age estimation from blood based on the quantification of T-cell specific DNA rearrangements (sjTRECs), which achieves accurate assignment of blood DNA samples to one of four 20-year-interval age categories. Aiming at improving the accuracy of molecular age estimation from blood, we investigated different types of biomarkers. We started out by systematic genome-wide surveys for new age-informative mRNA and DNA methylation markers in blood from the same young and old individuals using microarray technologies. The obtained candidate markers were validated in independent samples covering a wide age range using alternative technologies together with previously proposed DNA methylation, sjTREC, and telomere length markers. Cross-validated multiple regression analysis was applied for estimating and validating the age predictive power of various sets of biomarkers within and across different marker types. We found that DNA methylation markers outperformed mRNA, sjTREC, and telomere length in age predictive power. The best performing model included 8 DNA methylation markers derived from 3 CpG islands reaching a high level of accuracy (cross-validated R(2)=0.88, SE±6.97 years, mean absolute deviation 5.07 years). However, our data also suggest that mRNA markers can provide independent age information: a model using a combined set of 5 DNA methylation markers and one mRNA marker could provide

  16. Reliability of Dental Attrition as a Sole Parameter for Age Estimation among North Western Adult Indians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Arora

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Dental ageing is important in medico legal cases when teeth are the only material available to the investigating agencies for identification of the deceased. Attrition, which is the wear of occlusal surface of tooth (a physiological change; can be used as a determinant parameter for this purpose. The present study has been undertaken to examine the reliability of attrition as a sole parameter for age estimation among North Western adult Indians. 109 (43males, 66 females single rooted freshly extracted teeth ranging in age from 18-75years were studied. Teeth were fixed, cleaned and sectioned labiolingually upto thickness of 1mm. Sections were then mounted and attrition was graded from 0-3 according to Gustafson’s method. Scores were subjected to regression equation to estimate age of an individual. Results of the present study revealed that this parameter is reliable in individuals of ≤ 60 years with an error of ±10years. However, periodontal disease severely affected the accuracy of age estimation from this parameter as is evident from the results. Statistically no significant difference was noted in absolute mean error of age in different age groups. No significant difference was observed in absolute mean error of age in both the sexes.

  17. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stansfield, Fiona J

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These 'Age Reference Lines' were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70-75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428

  18. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiona J Stansfield

    Full Text Available The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323 were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These 'Age Reference Lines' were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70-75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified.

  19. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stansfield, Fiona J

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These 'Age Reference Lines' were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70-75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified.

  20. Precision of hard structures used to estimate age of mountain Whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Hardy, Ryan S.; Quist, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) is a widely distributed salmonid in western North America that has decreased in abundance over portions of its distribution due to anthropogenic disturbances. In this investigation, we examined precision of age estimates derived from scales, pectoral fin rays, and sagittal otoliths from 167 mountain whitefish. Otoliths and pectoral fin rays were mounted in epoxy and cross-sectioned before examination. Scales were pressed onto acetate slides and resulting impressions were examined. Between-reader precision (i.e., between 2 readers), between-reader variability, and reader confidence ratings were compared among hard structures. Coefficient of variation (CV) in age estimates was lowest and percentage of exact agreement (PA-0) was highest for scales (CV = 5.9; PA-0 = 70%) compared to pectoral fin rays (CV =11.0; PA-0 = 58%) and otoliths (CV = 12.3; PA-0 = 55%). Median confidence ratings were significantly different (P ≤ 0.05) among all structures, with scales having the highest median confidence. Reader confidence decreased with fish age for scales and pectoral fin rays, but reader confidence increased with fish age for otoliths. In general, age estimates were more precise and reader confidence was higher for scales compared to pectoral fin rays and otoliths. This research will help fisheries biologists in selecting the most appropriate hard structure to use for future age and growth studies on mountain whitefish. In turn, selection of the most precise hard structure will lead to better estimates of dynamic rate functions.

  1. Preliminary age, growth and maturity estimates of spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) in British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, J. R.; McPhie, R. P.

    2015-05-01

    The spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) is a chimaeroid ranging from southeast Alaska to Baja California and found at depths of up to 1029 m. Despite being widespread and ubiquitous, few biological parameter estimates exist for spotted ratfish due to a lack of suitable ageing structures to estimate age and growth. We present preliminary results of age, growth and maturity estimates based on a new method in which tritor ridges are counted on the vomerine tooth plate. We also provide a method for estimating the number of worn tritor ridges based on tooth plate diameter measurements for the spotted ratfish. The tritor ridges are distinct bumps that are easy to identify and precision estimates between readers suggests that this method is transferable. Tritor ridges are a potential structure for estimating age in H. colliei and we provide recommendations for future research to improve the method. We sampled 269 spotted ratfish captured in trawl surveys off the coast British Columbia ranging in size from 74 to 495 mm in precaudal length (PCL). The estimated ages ranged from 2 to 16 years for males and from 2 to 21 years for females. The von Bertalanffy, von Bertalanffy with known size at birth, Gompertz and logistic growth models were fitted to the data. Based on Akaike information criterion corrected for sample size and number of parameters estimated, the logistic growth curve was selected as most suitable. The logistic growth model yielded the following parameter estimates: Linf=407.22 mm (PCL), k=0.23 year-1, t0=-7.06 years for males; L∞=494.52 mm (PCL), k=0.26 year-1, t0=-8.35 years for females. Estimated ages at 50% maturity were 12 and 14 years for males and females, respectively. Correspondingly, the size at 50% maturity estimates was smaller for males (302 mm, PCL) than females (393 mm, PCL). Both estimates are larger than those made for spotted ratfish off of California indicating regional differences in life history traits for this species. Our preliminary

  2. Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D.; Wancata, Lauren M.; Muenz, Daniel G.; Haymart, Megan R.; Wong, Sandra L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Overall cancer incidence is decreasing while melanoma cases increase. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients as they survive past diagnosis. It is unknown the effect age and stage has on a melanoma patient’s conditional survival estimate. Methods Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) data was utilized, identifying new diagnosis cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95,041), from 1998–2005, with up to 12 year follow up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression and transformed to estimate conditional five-year survival. Results Localized melanoma patients have an excellent five-year survival at diagnosis and subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70–79 years) to younger patients (hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01–4.84) and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93–2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87–1.53). Over time conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease nor is the age gradient. Conclusions Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanoma is initially impacted by older age with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional five-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218

  3. Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D; Wancata, Lauren M; Muenz, Daniel G; Haymart, Megan R; Wong, Sandra L

    2016-02-01

    Overall cancer incidence is decreasing, whereas melanoma cases are increasing. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients the farther they are from time of diagnosis. The effect of age and stage on a melanoma patient's conditional survival estimate is unknown. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were utilized to identify newly diagnosed cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95 041), from 1998 to 2005, with up to 12 years of follow-up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression analysis and transformed to estimated conditional 5-year survival. Localized melanoma patients have an excellent 5-year survival at diagnosis and over subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70-79 years) with younger patients (hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01-4.84] and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93-2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87-1.53). Over time, conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease, neither is the age gradient. Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanomas are initially impacted by older age, with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional 5-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision-making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218

  4. Computed tomography evaluation of the iliac crest apophysis: age estimation in living individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Inci, Ercan; Erdil, Irem; Hocaoglu, Elif; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan; Kazimoglu, Cemal; Reisoglu, Ali; Can, Ismail Ozgur

    2016-07-01

    Determination of the ossification properties of the iliac apophysis is important not only in the clinical evaluation of patients undergoing orthopedic surgery but also in age estimation studies for forensic purposes. The literature includes both anthropological and radiological (conventional radiography, ultrasonography, and magnetic resonance imaging modalities) investigations of the different staging systems used for these purposes. In this study, we assessed the utility of computed tomography (CT) of the iliac crest apophysis in estimating forensic age. CT scans of the iliac crest apophysis of 380 patients (187 females, 193 males, and 10-29 years of age) were evaluated according to the four-stage system. Further subclassification did not give data properly due to the reference length measurement of the iliac wing with CT. Thus, in our series, stage 2 was first seen in 12 years of age and stage 3 in those 14 years of age in both sexes and on both sides of the pelvis. Stage 4 was first seen in 17 years of both sexes but only on the right side; on the left side, it appeared in females 18 years of age and in males 17 years of age. Present data was found consistent with previous pelvic radiographic findings. First seen ages for stage 2 and 3 are 12 and 14 years respectively which presented valuable information for legally important age thresholds. However, disadvantages of CT, including high-dose radiation exposure to gonads, the difficulty of evaluating the iliac crest, and the age boundary of 17 years, could make this method infeasible, as compared with hand wrist and pelvic radiographic methods. CT of the iliac crest has probably a greater utility where preexisting CT scans of the pelvic region are available, and it may be considered as a supportive method for age-estimation purposes. PMID:26914804

  5. Estimation of Heterogeneity in Diagnostic Parameters of Age-related Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blokh, David; Stambler, Ilia

    2014-08-01

    The heterogeneity of parameters is a ubiquitous biological phenomenon, with critical implications for biological systems functioning in normal and diseased states. We developed a method to estimate the level of objects set heterogeneity with reference to particular parameters and applied it to type II diabetes and heart disease, as examples of age-related systemic dysfunctions. The Friedman test was used to establish the existence of heterogeneity. The Newman-Keuls multiple comparison method was used to determine clusters. The normalized Shannon entropy was used to provide the quantitative evaluation of heterogeneity. There was obtained an estimate for the heterogeneity of the diagnostic parameters in healthy subjects, as well as in heart disease and type II diabetes patients, which was strongly related to their age. With aging, as with the diseases, the level of heterogeneity (entropy) was reduced, indicating a formal analogy between these phenomena. The similarity of the patterns in aging and disease suggested a kind of "early aging" of the diseased subjects, or alternatively a "disease-like" aging process, with reference to these particular parameters. The proposed method and its validation on the chronic age-related disease samples may support a way toward a formal mathematical relation between aging and chronic diseases and a formal definition of aging and disease, as determined by particular heterogeneity (entropy) changes. PMID:25110613

  6. A comparison of gyrochronological and isochronal age estimates for transiting exoplanet host stars

    CERN Document Server

    Maxted, P F L; Southworth, J

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies suggest that tidal interactions may be responsible for discrepancies between the ages of exoplanet host stars estimated using stellar models (isochronal ages) and age estimates based on the stars' rotation periods (gyrochronological ages). We have compiled a sample of 28 transiting exoplanet host stars with measured rotation periods. We use a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method to determine the joint posterior distribution for the mass and age of each star in the sample, and extend this method to include a calculation of the posterior distribution of the gyrochronological age. The gyrochronological age ($\\tau_{\\rm gyro}$) is significantly less than the isochronal age for about half of the stars in our sample. Tidal interactions between the star and planet are a reasonable explanation for this discrepancy in some cases, but not all. The distribution of $\\tau_{\\rm gyro}$ values is evenly spread from very young ages up to a maximum value of a few Gyr. There is no clear correlation between $...

  7. Estimation of age based on tooth cementum annulations using three different microscopic methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siddharth Pundir

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The hard tissues of human dentition are able to resist decay and degradation long after other tissues are lost. This resistance to decay has made teeth useful for calculation of age at death of an individual. Recent research indicates that tooth cementum annulations (TCA may be used more reliably than other morphological or histological traits of the adult skeleton for estimation of age. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the correlation between age and the number of incremental lines in human dental cementum and to ascertain which, among three different forms of microscopy (light, polarized, phase-contrast was the most reliable method of studying cementum. Materials and Methods: The study sample consisted of 40 teeth that had been extracted from patients ranging in age from 20−70 years. Longitudinal ground sections of each tooth were prepared and examined under light microscopy, polarized microscopy, and phase-contrast microscopy. The images were magnified on a computer and the cemental lines were counted with the help of Image Analysis Pro 6.0 software. Only the dark lines were counted. Results: There was a strong positive correlation between the estimated age and calculated age when phase-contrast microscopy was used; the correlation was less for light and polarized microscopy. Our results suggest that there is no significant influence of sex, age, periodontal disease, or tooth type on age estimation by the TCA method. This suggests that the accuracy and repeatability of the method is not dependent on tooth type or location and that this method can be applied to the general population regardless of systemic or periodontal health. Conclusion: With this study we conclude that among the methods of counting incremental lines by various types of microscopy phase-contrast microscopy improves the accuracy of age estimation and may serve as a valuable aid in forensic identification.

  8. Age estimation in Indian children and adolescents in the NCR region of Haryana: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Swati; Mehendiratta, Monica; Rehani, Shweta; Kumra, Madhumani; Nagpal, Ruchi; Gupta, Ramakant

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is a preliminary step in the identification of an individual. It is a crucial and often most critical step for forensic experts. The assessment has been standardized utilizing common dental diagnostic x-rays, but most such age-estimating systems are European population-based and their applicability has not been determined in the context of the Indian population. Aims and Objectives: To assess the applicability and to compare the methods of dental age estimation by Demirjian's method and the same method as modified by Willems (i.e. the Willems method) in Indian children of the National Capital Region (NCR). Also, to find a correlation among skeletal maturity using the Cervical vertebrae maturation index (CVMI), dental maturity, and chronological age in the same population. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted using dental radiographs of 70 orthodontic patients (37 males, 33 females) in the age range 9-16 years selected by simple random sampling. pantomogram were used to estimate dental age by Demirjian's method and the Willems method using their scoring tables. Lateral cephalograms were used to estimate skeletal maturity using CVMI. The latter was compared with Demirjian's stage for mandibular left second molar. Results: Overestimation of age among males by 0.856 years and 0.496 years was found by Demirjian's and the Willems methods, respectively. Among females, both the methods underestimated the age by 0.31 years and 0.45 years, respectively. Demirjian's stage G corresponded to CVMI stage 3 in males and stage 2 in females. Conclusion: In our study, the Willems method has proved to be more accurate for age estimation among Indian males, and Demirjian's method for Indian females. A statistically significant association appeared between Demirjian's stages and CVMI among both males and females. Our study recommends the derivation of a regression formula by studying a larger section of the Indian population

  9. Age estimation using pulp/tooth area ratio: A digital image analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasidhar Singaraju

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Age is one of the essential factors in establishing the identity of the person. Estimation of the human age is a procedure adopted by anthropologists, archeologists, and forensic scientists. Inspection of radiographs and subsequent comparison with radiographic images, in charts yield ′maturity scores′ that help us to assess the age of an individual. Alternative approaches based on digitalization of panoramic radiographs and their computerized storage have recently become available that exploit image analysis to obtain nondestructive metric measurements of both pulp chambers and teeth, which can be used to assess the age of an individual. The purpose of the present study was to present a method for assessing the chronological age based on the relationship between age and measurement of the pulp/tooth area ratio on single-rooted teeth, using orthopantomographs and a computer-aided drafting program AutoCAD 2000.

  10. Infant bone age estimation based on fibular shaft length: model development and clinical validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bone age in infants (<1 year old) is generally estimated using hand/wrist or knee radiographs, or by counting ossification centers. The accuracy and reproducibility of these techniques are largely unknown. To develop and validate an infant bone age estimation technique using fibular shaft length and compare it to conventional methods. We retrospectively reviewed negative skeletal surveys of 247 term-born low-risk-of-abuse infants (no persistent child protection team concerns) from July 2005 to February 2013, and randomized them into two datasets: (1) model development (n = 123) and (2) model testing (n = 124). Three pediatric radiologists measured all fibular shaft lengths. An ordinary linear regression model was fitted to dataset 1, and the model was evaluated using dataset 2. Readers also estimated infant bone ages in dataset 2 using (1) the hemiskeleton method of Sontag, (2) the hemiskeleton method of Elgenmark, (3) the hand/wrist atlas of Greulich and Pyle, and (4) the knee atlas of Pyle and Hoerr. For validation, we selected lower-extremity radiographs of 114 normal infants with no suspicion of abuse. Readers measured the fibulas and also estimated bone ages using the knee atlas. Bone age estimates from the proposed method were compared to the other methods. The proposed method outperformed all other methods in accuracy and reproducibility. Its accuracy was similar for the testing and validating datasets, with root-mean-square error of 36 days and 37 days; mean absolute error of 28 days and 31 days; and error variability of 22 days and 20 days, respectively. This study provides strong support for an infant bone age estimation technique based on fibular shaft length as a more accurate alternative to conventional methods. (orig.)

  11. Infant bone age estimation based on fibular shaft length: model development and clinical validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsai, Andy; Stamoulis, Catherine; Bixby, Sarah D.; Breen, Micheal A.; Connolly, Susan A.; Kleinman, Paul K. [Boston Children' s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Bone age in infants (<1 year old) is generally estimated using hand/wrist or knee radiographs, or by counting ossification centers. The accuracy and reproducibility of these techniques are largely unknown. To develop and validate an infant bone age estimation technique using fibular shaft length and compare it to conventional methods. We retrospectively reviewed negative skeletal surveys of 247 term-born low-risk-of-abuse infants (no persistent child protection team concerns) from July 2005 to February 2013, and randomized them into two datasets: (1) model development (n = 123) and (2) model testing (n = 124). Three pediatric radiologists measured all fibular shaft lengths. An ordinary linear regression model was fitted to dataset 1, and the model was evaluated using dataset 2. Readers also estimated infant bone ages in dataset 2 using (1) the hemiskeleton method of Sontag, (2) the hemiskeleton method of Elgenmark, (3) the hand/wrist atlas of Greulich and Pyle, and (4) the knee atlas of Pyle and Hoerr. For validation, we selected lower-extremity radiographs of 114 normal infants with no suspicion of abuse. Readers measured the fibulas and also estimated bone ages using the knee atlas. Bone age estimates from the proposed method were compared to the other methods. The proposed method outperformed all other methods in accuracy and reproducibility. Its accuracy was similar for the testing and validating datasets, with root-mean-square error of 36 days and 37 days; mean absolute error of 28 days and 31 days; and error variability of 22 days and 20 days, respectively. This study provides strong support for an infant bone age estimation technique based on fibular shaft length as a more accurate alternative to conventional methods. (orig.)

  12. An evaluation of Knutson's formula for estimating age-specific DMF teeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korts, D C; Poulsen, S; Kingman, A

    1978-07-01

    The present study evaluated a formula suggested by Knutson for obtaining an age-specific estimate of mean DMFT in a population on the basis of the age-specific percentage of individuals with 1 or more DMFT. A total of 149 previously collected age-specific data sets from low-flouride areas in the U.S.A. were used, and the two parameters K and B were estimated using the method of weighted least squares. The analysis showed that the formula could be used with good accuracy for certain restrictions of age (5--11 years) and percentage of individuals with 1 or more DMFT (less than or equal to 70%).

  13. Using a near-infrared spectrometer to estimate the age of anopheles mosquitoes exposed to pyrethroids.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maggy T Sikulu

    Full Text Available We report on the accuracy of using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS to predict the age of Anopheles mosquitoes reared from wild larvae and a mixed age-wild adult population collected from pit traps after exposure to pyrethroids. The mosquitoes reared from wild larvae were estimated as <7 or ≥7 d old with an overall accuracy of 79%. The age categories of Anopheles mosquitoes that were not exposed to the insecticide papers were predicted with 78% accuracy whereas the age categories of resistant, susceptible and mosquitoes exposed to control papers were predicted with 82%, 78% and 79% accuracy, respectively. The ages of 85% of the wild-collected mixed-age Anopheles were predicted by NIRS as ≤8 d for both susceptible and resistant groups. The age structure of wild-collected mosquitoes was not significantly different for the pyrethroid-susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes (P = 0.210. Based on these findings, NIRS chronological age estimation technique for Anopheles mosquitoes may be independent of insecticide exposure and the environmental conditions to which the mosquitoes are exposed.

  14. Dental age estimation from the developmental stage of the third molars in Iranian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Balwant; Kaur, Jasdeep; Jafarzadeh, Hamid

    2010-08-01

    A sharp increase in forensic age estimation of living persons has been observed in recent years. However, ethnic populations residing in different countries have been insufficiently analyzed. The aim of this study was to achieve a referral database and regression equations for dental age estimation of unaccompanied minors of Iran nationality. A total of 1200 orthopantomograms were collected from original Iran and equally divided in age categories between 10 and 27 years. On the radiographs, the developmental stage of the third molars was scored applying a Demirjian et al. scoring technique. Inter- and intra-observer reliabilities were tested using kappa statistics. Correlation between the scores of all four wisdom maxillary and mandibular third molars teeth and left/right symmetry were evaluated with spearman correlation coefficient. Student's t-test on asymmetry was performed and regression formulas were calculated. The present database was the first to assemble third molar developmental scores on radiographs of Iran individuals and provided more appropriate dental age estimation of unaccompanied Iran minors. To enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molars mineralization, the use of population-specific standards is recommended.

  15. Age estimation based on pelvic ossification using regression models from conventional radiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kui; Dong, Xiao-Ai; Fan, Fei; Deng, Zhen-Hua

    2016-07-01

    To establish regression models for age estimation from the combination of the ossification of iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. One thousand three hundred and seventy-nine conventional pelvic radiographs at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University between January 2010 and June 2012 were evaluated retrospectively. The receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to measure the value of estimation of 18 years of age with the classification scheme for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. Regression analysis was performed, and formulas for calculating approximate chronological age according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity were developed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were above 0.9 (p systems, and the cubic regression model was found to have the highest R-square value (R (2) = 0.744 for female and R (2) = 0.753 for male). The present classification scheme for apophyseal iliac crest ossification and the ischial tuberosity may be used for age estimation. And the present established cubic regression model according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity can be used for age estimation. PMID:27169673

  16. Estimated inventory of plutonium and uranium radionuclides for vegetation in aged fallout areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Data are presented pertinent to the contamination of vegetation by plutonium and other radionuclides in aged fallout areas on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the Tonopah Test Range (TTR). The standing biomass of vegetation estimated by nondestructive dimensional methods varied from about 200 to 600 g/m2 for the different fallout areas. Estimated inventories of 238Pu, 239Pu, 240Pu, and 235U in plants and their biological effects are discussed

  17. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana)

    OpenAIRE

    Stansfield, Fiona J.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to mola...

  18. Estimating age of spotted and spinner dolphins (Stenella attenuata and Stenella longirostris) from teeth

    OpenAIRE

    Myrck, Jr., Albert C.; Hohn, Aleta A.; Sloan, Priscilla A.; Kimura, Makoto; Stanley, Drew D.

    1983-01-01

    This paper is an account of preparation and examination techniques and criteria used to estimate age in decalcified and stained tooth thin sections from spinner and spotted dolphins. A dentinal growth layer group (GLG), composed of two thin light and two thicker dark-stained layers, is deposited annually. The GLG component layers are variably visible, but the "ideal" pattern and successive thinning of dentinal GLGs are used as a guide to determine GLG limits. Age-specific thicknesses of de...

  19. A method for estimating gestational age of fetal remains based on long bone lengths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carneiro, Cristiana; Curate, Francisco; Cunha, Eugénia

    2016-09-01

    The estimation of gestational age (GA) in fetal human remains is important in forensic settings, particularly to assess fetal viability, in addition to often being the only biological profile parameter that can be assessed with some accuracy for non-adults. The length of long bone diaphysis is one of the most frequently used methods for fetal age estimation. The main objective of this study was to present a simple and objective method for estimating GA based on the measurements of the diaphysis of the femur, tibia, fibula, humerus, ulna, and radius. Conventional least squares regression equations (classical and inverse calibration approaches) and quick reference tables were generated. A supplementary objective was to compare the performance of the new formulae against previously published models. The sample comprised 257 fetuses (136 females and 121 males) with known GA (between 12 and 40 weeks) and was selected based on clinical and pathological information. All measurements were performed on radiographic images acquired in anonymous clinical autopsy records from spontaneous and therapeutic abortions in two Portuguese hospitals. The proposed technique is straightforward and reproducible. The models for the GA estimation are exceedingly accurate and unbiased. Comparisons between inverse and classical calibration show that both perform exceptionally well, with high accuracy and low bias. Also, the newly developed equations generally outperform earlier methods of GA estimation in forensic contexts. Quick reference tables for each long bone are now available. The obtained models for the estimation of gestational age are of great applicability in forensic contexts. PMID:27251047

  20. Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

    2014-01-01

    The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information. 

  1. Age estimation in 25-45 yrs. old females by physical and radiological methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vikrant Kasat

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim:The purpose of this study was to estimate the age in living females in the later years (25 to 45 years from general physical features and radiographic changes in the sternum and the mandible. Materials and Methods:A cross-sectional study was conducted on 64 females (32 subjects in each study and control group. All the subjects were physically examined for graying of scalp, body, pubic hair, and for wrinkling of skin of the forehead, temporal region, and below the eyes. A right lateral view of the chest was taken to determine fusion of the components of the sternum. Combined Hair Score, Combined Skin Score, and Combined Bone Fusion Score were calculated. An orthopantomogram of each patient was traced for lower jaw, mandibular canal and teeth, and D 1 , D 2 , A values were calculated. SPSS Software Version 10.1 was used for the execution of the regression command on the 32 cases of the control group, whose ages were known. Results:Combined skin score, mandible right D 2 , mandible right angle, and mandible left angle turned out significant in the prediction of age. Using the regression equation obtained, the age of the 32 subjects in the study group was estimated. In 9.3% of cases, the predicted ages exactly matched the actual ages. A variation of 1−4 years was seen in 75% of the cases. A variation of 6−7 years was seen in 15.6% of the cases. Conclusion:This study succeeded in most instances in predicting the ages of the study group and in arriving at a formula for age estimation between the ages of 25 and 45 years without using any invasive, costly, time - consuming, or troublesome method.

  2. Comparison of Fundal Height Measurement and Ultrasonography for Estimation of Gestational Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Aflatoonian

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Estimation of gestational age is an essential component of prenatal care. Gestational age is estimated by Last Menopausal Period, fundal height and ultrasonography. Serial measurment of fundal height and comparison with LMP predicts the G.A more accurately. Since nowadays, ultrasonography is used more frequently during pregnancy, patients have to bear more expenses. But we can use serial measurement of fundal height for determination of G.A. This method is cheap, reliable and easy for assessment of G.A and fetal growth in pregnancies without serious complications. In this study, we compared the accuracy of Fundal Height Measurement And Ultrasonography for estimation of gestational age. Methods: In this cross sectional study we investigated and compared the accuracy of fundal height measurement and ultrasonography in estimation of G.A. A total of 140 pregnant mothers were selected from patients referring to gynecology and obstetrics clinic of Doctor Mojibian and Shahid Sadughi hospitals in Yazd. Gestational age of these patients were estimated two times; measurement of fundal height and ultrasonography. Collected data was analyzed with SPSS11.5 program and Pearson correllation statistical test. Results: This pregnant mothers were identified by some criteria. In these mothers, the G.A was estimated by ultrasonography (BPD,FL and measurement of fundal height at G.A of 22-25 weeks, 22-25 weeks, and then at G.A of 25 to 28 weeks. Conclusion: The results showed that measurement of fundal height like sonography has a high a high rate of accuracy for estimation of G.A.

  3. Estimated incidence of pertussis in people aged <50 years in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chi-Chang; Balderston McGuiness, Catherine; Krishnarajah, Girishanthy; Blanchette, Christopher M.; Wang, Yuanyuan; Sun, Kainan; Buck, Philip O.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The introduction of pertussis vaccination in the United States (US) in the 1940s has greatly reduced its burden. However, the incidence of pertussis is difficult to quantify, as many cases are not laboratory-confirmed or reported, particularly in adults. This study estimated pertussis incidence in a commercially insured US population aged models; (3) using the fraction of cough illness (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3, 786.2, 466.0, 466.1, 487.1) attributed to laboratory-confirmed pertussis, estimated by time series linear regression models. Method 1 gave a projected annual incidence of diagnosed pertussis of 9/100,000, which was highest in those aged <1 year. Method 2 gave an average annual projected incidence of 21/100,000. Method 3 gave an overall regression-estimated weighted annual incidence of pertussis of 649/100,000, approximately 58–93 times higher than method 1 depending on the year. These estimations, which are consistent with considerable underreporting of pertussis in people aged <50 years and provide further evidence that the majority of cases go undetected, especially with increasing age, may aid in the development of public health programs to reduce pertussis burden. PMID:27246119

  4. Estimation of sex and age of 'virtual skeletons'-a feasibility study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grabherr, Silke [University Hospital of Lausanne, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Lausanne (Switzerland)]|[University of Bern, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Bern (Switzerland)]|[University Hospital of Lausanne, Service of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Lausanne (Switzerland); Cooper, Christine; Ulrich-Bochsler, Susi [University of Bern, Institute for the History of Medicine, Historical Anthropology, Bern (Switzerland); Uldin, Tanya [Service of Osteo-Archaeology, Aesch (Switzerland); Ross, Steffen; Oesterhelweg, Lars; Bolliger, Stephan; Thali, Michael J. [University of Bern, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Bern (Switzerland); Christe, Andreas [University of Bern, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Bern (Switzerland)]|[University of Bern, Institute of Diagnostic Radiology, Bern (Switzerland); Schnyder, Pierre [University Hospital of Lausanne, Service of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Lausanne (Switzerland); Mangin, Patrice [University Hospital of Lausanne, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2009-02-15

    This article presents a feasibility study with the objective of investigating the potential of multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) to estimate the bone age and sex of deceased persons. To obtain virtual skeletons, the bodies of 22 deceased persons with known age at death were scanned by MDCT using a special protocol that consisted of high-resolution imaging of the skull, shoulder girdle (including the upper half of the humeri), the symphysis pubis and the upper halves of the femora. Bone and soft-tissue reconstructions were performed in two and three dimensions. The resulting data were investigated by three anthropologists with different professional experience. Sex was determined by investigating three-dimensional models of the skull and pelvis. As a basic orientation for the age estimation, the complex method according to Nemeskeri and co-workers was applied. The final estimation was effected using additional parameters like the state of dentition, degeneration of the spine, etc., which where chosen individually by the three observers according to their experience. The results of the study show that the estimation of sex and age is possible by the use of MDCT. Virtual skeletons present an ideal collection for anthropological studies, because they are obtained in a non-invasive way and can be investigated ad infinitum. (orig.)

  5. Application of aging methods to estimate long term performance of secondary materials for road construction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akbarnejad, S.; Houben, L.J.M.; Molenaar, A.A.A.

    2012-01-01

    Long term performance of secondary materials is becoming a challenging aspect in road construction since due to their benefits they are being used on a large scale, but on the other hand their future behaviors are difficult to estimate. In this study, aging is proposed as a means of exploring the lo

  6. Human dental age estimation using third molar developmental stages: Accuracy of age predictions not using country specific information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Alqerban, A; Asaumi, J; Kahveci, F; Kaur, J; Kim, Y K; Pittayapat, P; Van Vlierberghe, M; Zhang, Y; Fieuws, S; Willems, G

    2010-09-10

    Unquestionable forensic age investigations are based on statistical models constructed on a sample containing subjects of identical origin as the examined individual. In cases where corresponding models are unavailable, the established report has to describe the possible effects of this unrelated information on the predicted age outcome. The aim of this study is to collect country specific databases of third molar development and to verify how the related dental age estimations are influenced if we were to use dental developmental information only from Belgium or from all collected countries together. Data containing third molar developmental stages scored following Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Köhler) were collected from 9 country specific populations (Belgium, China, Japan, Korea, Poland, Thailand, Turkey, Saudi-Arabia and South-India). Age predictions were obtained from a training dataset and validated on a test dataset. Bayes rule using the repeated third molar scores is applied to get age predictions and prediction intervals. Three age predictions were compared for males and females separately. For the first prediction, the training dataset contains only Belgian subjects. For the second prediction, the training dataset for each country consists only of subjects of the country itself. For the final prediction, subjects from all countries are pooled into one common training dataset. Besides the (absolute) difference between the chronological age and the predicted age, specific interest lies in the juvenile-adult distinction. In the age range from 16 to 22 years 6982 subjects (3189 male and 3793 female) were analyzed. Using information on third molar development from Belgium compared to information from the country specific databases hardly increased the mean absolute differences (MAD) and mean squared errors (MSE): the MAD and MSE increased on average with 0.5 and 2.5 months with maximal increases of, respectively 1.6 and 7.3 months. Using information from all

  7. The biology behind the counts: tooth development related to age estimation in beluga (Delphinapterus leucas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara E Stewart

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The widely accepted method of determining ages of beluga is to count dentine growth layer groups (GLGs in median, longitudinal sections of a tooth. It is essential to understand how these growth layers form and to consider developmental factors that can confound their enumeration to be able to provide meaningful age estimates. Here we provide information on, and illustrate, the developmental biology of beluga teeth as it relates to interpreting GLGs. Key factors are: evaluating the presence and occlusal wear of fetal dentine; interpreting early-formed diagnostic features such as the neonatal line; assessing the last-formed growth layer adjacent to the pulp cavity; identifying the presence of nodes at the dentine-cementum interface to assist in counting GLGs; and recognizing  pulp stones and accessory lines in the dentine which may hinder the age estimate process.

  8. Application of a novel method for age estimation of a baleen whale and a porpoise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Nynne H.; Garde, Eva; Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter;

    2013-01-01

    Eyeballs from 121 fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) and 83 harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) were used for age estimation using the aspartic acid racemization (AAR) technique. The racemization rate (kAsp) for fin whales was established from 15 fetuses (age 0) and 15 adult whales where age...... against D/L ratios. For the fin whales an (kAsp) of 1.15 × 10−3/yr (SE ± 0.00005) and a D/L ratio at birth [(D/L)0] of 0.028 (SE ± 0.0012) were estimated, which is in agreement with rates for other mysticeti. For the harbor porpoises a (kAsp) of 3.10 × 10−3/yr (SE ± 0.0004) and a (D/L)0 value of 0.023 (SE...

  9. Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Gallidabino, Matteo; Weyermann, Céline; Taroni, Franco

    2016-03-01

    Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed. PMID:25794687

  10. Weight Estimation Tool for Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Limited-Resource Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Importance A simple, reliable anthropometric tool for rapid estimation of weight in children would be useful in limited-resource settings where current weight estimation tools are not uniformly reliable, nearly all global under-five mortality occurs, severe acute malnutrition is a significant contributor in approximately one-third of under-five mortality, and a weight scale may not be immediately available in emergencies to first-response providers. Objective To determine the accuracy and precision of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and height as weight estimation tools in children under five years of age in low-to-middle income countries. Design This was a retrospective observational study. Data were collected in 560 nutritional surveys during 1992–2006 using a modified Expanded Program of Immunization two-stage cluster sample design. Setting Locations with high prevalence of acute and chronic malnutrition. Participants A total of 453,990 children met inclusion criteria (age 6–59 months; weight ≤ 25 kg; MUAC 80–200 mm) and exclusion criteria (bilateral pitting edema; biologically implausible weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) values). Exposures Weight was estimated using Broselow Tape, Hong Kong formula, and database MUAC alone, height alone, and height and MUAC combined. Main Outcomes and Measures Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight, proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% and ± 10% of true weight, weighted Kappa statistic, and Bland-Altman bias were reported as measures of tool accuracy. Standard deviation of mean percentage difference and Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement were reported as measures of tool precision. Results Database height was a more accurate and precise predictor of weight compared to Broselow Tape 2007 [B], Broselow Tape 2011 [A], and MUAC. Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight was +0.49% (SD = 10

  11. Age Estimation-Based Soft Biometrics Considering Optical Blurring Based on Symmetrical Sub-Blocks for MLBP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dat Tien Nguyen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Because of its many useful applications, human age estimation has been considered in many previous studies as a soft biometrics. However, most existing methods of age estimation require a clear and focused facial image as input in order to obtain a trustworthy estimation result; otherwise, the methods might produce increased estimation error when an image of poor quality is used as input. Image blurring is one of major factors that affect estimation accuracies because it can cause a face to appear younger (i.e., reduce the age feature in the face region. Therefore, we propose a new human age estimation method that is robust even with an image that has the optical blurring effect by using symmetrical focus mask and sub-blocks for multi-level local binary pattern (MLBP. Experiment results show that the proposed method can enhance age estimation accuracy compared with the conventional system, which does not consider the effects of blurring.

  12. Forensic age estimation from the clavicle using 1.0 T MRI—Preliminary results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sara Tangmose; Jensen, Karl Erik; Villa, Chiara;

    2014-01-01

    : Motion artefacts reduced image resolution in living subjects. However, mean age at stage 4 was significantly different from mean age at stage 2 and 3. The minimum age at stage 4 was 19.8 years. Inter-observer agreement was moderate for autopsy cases and slight for living subjects. By contrasting subjects......OBJECTIVES: As forensic age estimations in the living are performed without medical indication, there is a need for the development of non-ionizing methods. This study investigates the use of 1.0T MRI to visualize the ossification status of the medial end of the clavicle. MATERIAL AND METHODS: T2...... of "incomplete fusion" (≤ stage 3 on both sides) against "fused" (at least one stage 4), agreement rate rose to moderate (K=0.414) for living subjects. Despite the low agreement rate, no subject younger than 18 years was assessed as having "fused" clavicles. CONCLUSION: At lower image resolution, a 2-stage...

  13. Estimates of Age-Specific Mortality Rates from Sequential Cross-Sectional Data in Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry V. Doctor

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a method for estimating age-specific event rates for adults (15–49 years in Malawi between 1977 and 1998. This method, which is based on the development of unstable populations, is similar to the “variable-r” methods. Data from Malawi demonstrate mortality reduction nearly for all age groups between 1977 and 1987 for males whereas for females the reduction was observed for age groups 15–19 and 40–44. Contrary to this finding, the 1987–1998 intercensal period shows that mortality increased at a higher rate in the ages 20 and above for males than females. However, the increase for the females is much higher in the 1987–1998 intercensal period than in the 1977–1987 intercensal period. These findings may be related to the onset and effect of the AIDS epidemic. Implications for future research are discussed.

  14. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  15. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting the change in fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water rectors (LWRs) at 280--330 degrees C (535--625 degrees F). The fracture toughness J-R curve and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known mineral in formation. Fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel is estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. The extent of thermal embrittlement is characterized by the room-temperature ''normalized'' Charpy-impact energy. A correlation for the extent of embrittlement at ''saturation,'' i.e., the minimum impact energy that would be achieved for the material after long-term aging, is given in terms of a material parameter, Φ, which is determined from the chemical composition. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained from correlations between room-temperature Charpy-impact energy and fracture toughness parameters. Fracture toughness as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which is determined from chemical composition. A common ''lower-bound'' J-R curve for cast stainless steels with unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given material specification, ferrite content, and temperature. Examples for estimating impact strength and fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are describes. 24 refs., 39 figs., 2 tabs

  16. The biochemical estimation of age in Euphausiids: Laboratory calibration and field comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, H. R.; Ju, Se-J.; Son, S.-K.; Feinberg, L. R.; Shaw, C. T.; Peterson, W. T.

    2010-04-01

    Euphausiids play a key role in many marine ecosystems as a link between primary producers and top predators. Understanding their demographic (i.e. age) structure is an essential tool to assess growth and recruitment as well as to determine how changes in environmental conditions might alter their condition and distribution. Age determination of crustaceans cannot be accomplished using traditional approaches, and here we evaluate the potential for biochemical products of tissue metabolism (termed lipofuscins) to determine the demographic structure of euphausiids in field collections . Lipofuscin was extracted from krill neural tissues (eye and eye-stalk), quantified using fluorescent intensity and normalized to tissue protein content to allow comparisons across animal sizes. Multiple fluorescent components from krill were observed, with the major product having a maximum fluorescence at excitation of 355 nm and emission of 510 nm. Needed age calibration of lipofuscin accumulation in Euphausia pacifica was accomplished using known-age individuals hatched and reared in the laboratory for over one year. Lipofuscin content extracted from neural tissues of laboratory-reared animals was highly correlated with the chronological age of animals ( r=0.87). Calibrated with laboratory lipofuscin accumulation rates, field-collected sub-adult and adult E. pacifica in the Northeast Pacific were estimated to be older than 100 days and younger than 1year. Comparative data for the Antarctic krill, E. superba showed much higher lipofuscin values suggesting a much longer lifespan than the more temperate species, E. pacifica. These regional comparisons suggest that biochemical indices allow a practical approach to estimate population age structure of diverse populations, and combined with other measurements can provide estimates of vital rates (i.e. longevity, mortality, growth) for krill populations in dynamic environments.

  17. Application of age estimation methods based on teeth eruption: how easy is Olze method to use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Merelli, V; Botto, M; Ventura, F; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    The development of new methods for age estimation has become with time an urgent issue because of the increasing immigration, in order to estimate accurately the age of those subjects who lack valid identity documents. Methods of age estimation are divided in skeletal and dental ones, and among the latter, Olze's method is one of the most recent, since it was introduced in 2010 with the aim to identify the legal age of 18 and 21 years by evaluating the different stages of development of the periodontal ligament of the third molars with closed root apices. The present study aims at verifying the applicability of the method to the daily forensic practice, with special focus on the interobserver repeatability. Olze's method was applied by three different observers (two physicians and one dentist without a specific training in Olze's method) to 61 orthopantomograms from subjects of mixed ethnicity aged between 16 and 51 years. The analysis took into consideration the lower third molars. The results provided by the different observers were then compared in order to verify the interobserver error. Results showed that interobserver error varies between 43 and 57 % for the right lower third molar (M48) and between 23 and 49 % for the left lower third molar (M38). Chi-square test did not show significant differences according to the side of teeth and type of professional figure. The results prove that Olze's method is not easy to apply when used by not adequately trained personnel, because of an intrinsic interobserver error. Since it is however a crucial method in age determination, it should be used only by experienced observers after an intensive and specific training.

  18. Threshold groundwater ages and young water fractions estimated from 3H, 3He, and 14C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchner, James; Jasechko, Scott

    2016-04-01

    It is widely recognized that a water sample taken from a running stream is not described by a single age, but rather by a distribution of ages. It is less widely recognized that the same principle holds true for groundwaters, as indicated by the commonly observed discordances between model ages obtained from different tracers (e.g., 3H vs 14C) in the same sample. Water age distributions are often characterized by their mean residence times (MRT's). However, MRT estimates are highly uncertain because they depend on the shape of the assumed residence time distribution (in particular on the thickness of the long-time tail), which is difficult or impossible to constrain with data. Furthermore, because MRT's are typically nonlinear functions of age tracer concentrations, they are subject to aggregation bias. That is, MRT estimates derived from a mixture of waters with different ages (and thus different tracer concentrations) will systematically underestimate the mixture's true mean age. Here, building on recent work with stable isotope tracers in surface waters [1-3], we present a new framework for using 3H, 3He and 14C to characterize groundwater age distributions. Rather than describing groundwater age distributions by their MRT, we characterize them by the fraction of the distribution that is younger or older than a threshold age. The threshold age that separates "young" from "old" water depends on the characteristics of the specific tracer, including its history of atmospheric inputs. Our approach depends only on whether a given slice of the age distribution is younger or older than the threshold age, but not on how much younger or older it is. Thus our approach is insensitive to the tails of the age distribution, and is therefore relatively unaffected by uncertainty in the distribution's shape. Here we show that concentrations of 3H, 3He, and 14C are almost linearly related to the fractions of water that are younger or older than specified threshold ages. These

  19. Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

    2007-01-01

    age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Estimating brain age using high-resolution pattern recognition: Younger brains in long-term meditation practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luders, Eileen; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Gaser, Christian

    2016-07-01

    Normal aging is known to be accompanied by loss of brain substance. The present study was designed to examine whether the practice of meditation is associated with a reduced brain age. Specific focus was directed at age fifty and beyond, as mid-life is a time when aging processes are known to become more prominent. We applied a recently developed machine learning algorithm trained to identify anatomical correlates of age in the brain translating those into one single score: the BrainAGE index (in years). Using this validated approach based on high-dimensional pattern recognition, we re-analyzed a large sample of 50 long-term meditators and 50 control subjects estimating and comparing their brain ages. We observed that, at age fifty, brains of meditators were estimated to be 7.5years younger than those of controls. In addition, we examined if the brain age estimates change with increasing age. While brain age estimates varied only little in controls, significant changes were detected in meditators: for every additional year over fifty, meditators' brains were estimated to be an additional 1month and 22days younger than their chronological age. Altogether, these findings seem to suggest that meditation is beneficial for brain preservation, effectively protecting against age-related atrophy with a consistently slower rate of brain aging throughout life. PMID:27079530

  1. AGE ESTIMATION BY USING ERUPTION OF PERMANENT TEETH: A COMPARATIVE STUDY IN LOCAL POPULATION TO PROVE/DISPROVE AGES OF ERUPTION USED IN ROUTINE PRACTICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamilmani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of age is one of the important medico legal works where medical knowledge is applied in rendering Justice to the public and to the state. Assessment of age is often required in civil and criminal litigations. Assessment of age of an individual by examination of teeth is one of the universally accepted methods of age estimation. In a developing country like India, a large number of people are illiterate and have no knowledge or records of their date of birth which is required by law enforcing age ncies in matters like, criminal responsibilities, identification, judicial punishment, consent, rape, criminal abortion, employment, attainment of majority, kidnapping and prostitution (Pathak et al, 1999. Age estimation is also required for admission pur poses at the time of schooling, joining services and during retirement. Estimation of age is also required for giving old age benefits. Hence, scientific determination of age is very important. Key words; Eruption of permanent teeth, J udicial punishment , Legal sections , Estimation of age in both sexes.

  2. Age estimation and the developing third molar tooth: an analysis of an Australian population using computed tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassed, Richard B; Briggs, C; Drummer, Olaf H

    2011-09-01

    The third molar tooth is one of the few anatomical sites available for age estimation of unknown age individuals in the late adolescent years. Computed tomography (CT) images were assessed in an Australian population aged from 15 to 25 years for development trends, particularly concerning age estimation at the child/adult transition point of 18 years. The CT images were also compared to conventional radiographs to assess the developmental scoring agreement between the two and it was found that agreement of Demirjian scores between the two imaging modalities was excellent. The relatively wide age ranges (mean ± 2SD) indicate that the third molar is not a precise tool for age estimation (age ranges of 3-8 years) but is, however, a useful tool for discriminating the adult/child transition age of 18 years. In the current study 100% of females and 96% of males with completed roots were over 18 years of age.

  3. Why Was Kelvin's Estimate of the Earth's Age Wrong?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovatt, Ian; Syed, M. Qasim

    2014-01-01

    This is a companion to our previous paper in which we give a published example, based primarily on Perry's work, of a graph of ln "y" versus "t" when "y" is an exponential function of "t". This work led us to the idea that Lord Kelvin's (William Thomson's) estimate of the Earth's age was…

  4. A method for estimating age of medieval sub-adults from infancy to adulthood based on long bone length

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Primeau, Charlotte; Friis, Laila Saidane; Sejrsen, Birgitte;

    2016-01-01

    on a modern population (Maresh: Human growth and development () pp 155-200), and, lastly, based on archeological data with known ages (Rissech et al.: Forensic Sci Int 180 () 1-9). As growth of long bones is known to be non-linear it was tested if the regression model could be improved by applying a quadratic...... model. RESULTS: Comparison between estimated ages revealed that the modern data result in lower estimated ages when compared to the Danish regression equations. The estimated ages using the Danish regression equations and the regression equations developed by Rissech et al. (Forensic Sci Int 180 () 1......OBJECTIVES: To develop a series of regression equations for estimating age from length of long bones for archaeological sub-adults when aging from dental development cannot be performed. Further, to compare derived ages when using these regression equations, and two other methods. MATERIAL...

  5. Reliability of age estimation using Demirjian′s 8 teeth method and India specific formula

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    V Jayanth Kumar

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The estimation of the age of a person has been an archaic exercise, and since decades even dentists have contributed to this science with several methods through radiography. The tooth with its developmental stages provides us with a non-invasive modality to determine the age of the person. Aim: To evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian′s 8 teeth method following the French maturity scores and India specific formula. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted on 121 archived digital orthopantamographs which were predominantly pre-treatment orthodontic radiographs from patients without any obvious developmental anomalies. The radiographs were divided into two gender specific groups and further sub-divided into two smaller groups of 7-16 years and 16.1-23 years. The radiographs were evaluated as per Demirjian′s criteria and age was calculated using the formula developed for the Indian population. Results: The results showed that the mean absolute error for the study sample was 1.18 years; in 57.9% of cases the error rate was within ±1 year. The mean absolute error in males (7-16 years was 1.2 years; in males (16.1-23 years was 1.3 years; in females (7-16 years was 0.95 years and in females (16.1-23 years was 1.16 years. Conclusion: The age estimation using this method narrows down the error rate to just over one year making this method reliable. However the inclusion of third molar increases the error rates in the older individuals within the sample.

  6. Dental maturity curves in Finnish children: Demirjian's method revisited and polynomial functions for age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaillet, Nils; Nyström, Marjatta; Kataja, Matti; Demirjian, Arto

    2004-11-01

    Dental maturity was studied from 2213 dental panoramic radiographs of healthy ethnic Finns from southern Finland, aged between 2 and 19 years. The aim was to provide new Finnish maturity tables and curves and to compare the efficiency of Demirjian's method when differently weighted scores and polynomial regressions are used. The inter-ethnic variations lead us to calculate specific Finnish weighted scores. Demirjian's method gives maturity score as a function of age and seems better adapted for clinicians because, in their case, the maturity score is unknown. Polynomial functions give age as a function of maturity score and are statically adapted for age estimation studies. Finnish dental maturity tables and development curves are given for Demirjian's method and for polynomial functions. Sexual dimorphism is established for the same weighted score for girls and boys, and girls present a greater maturity than boys for all of age groups. Polynomial functions are highly reliable (0.19% of misclassifies) and the percentile method, using Finnish weighted scores, is very accurate (+/- 1.95 years on average, between 2 and 18 years of age). This suggests that polynomial functions are most useful in forensic sciences, while Demirjian's method is most useful for dental health clinicians.

  7. Evaluation of third molar development in the estimation of chronological age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Caio Belém Rodrigues Barros; Figueiroa, José Natal; Dantas, Renata Moura Xavier; Kurita, Lúcio Mitsuo; Pontual, Andréa dos Anjos; Ramos-Perez, Flávia Maria de Moraes; Perez, Danyel Elias da Cruz; Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between chronological age and the degree of third molar mineralization by Demirjian's developmental stages (Demirjian et al., 1973) using panoramic radiography. From a total of 11.396 digital panoramic radiographs of patients from three oral radiology private clinics from the northeast region of Brazil, obtained from January to June 2009, 2097 radiographic images from patients aged between 6 and 22 years were selected. The images were analyzed individually by two obsevers using a 21-inch computer screen and Windows Picture and Fax Viewer. Reliability was achieved by intra- and interobserver evaluation, using the Kappa test. Chronological age, calcification stage, gender and third molar were interrelated using a multiple linear regression model, considering age as a response variable. There was reliability with Demirjian et al.'s developmental stage assesment, displaying a significant relationship between mineralization stages and patients' age (Page and the calcification stage taking gender and localization of the third molar into consideration. It is possible to estimate chronological age based on Demirjian's stage of a third molar, regardless of gender and location.

  8. Estimating dose rates to organs as a function of age following internal exposure to radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The AGEDOS methodology allows estimates of dose rates, as a function of age, to radiosensitive organs and tissues in the human body at arbitrary times during or after internal exposure to radioactive material. Presently there are few, if any, radionuclides for which sufficient metabolic information is available to allow full use of all features of the methodology. The intention has been to construct the methodology so that optimal information can be gained from a mixture of the limited amount of age-dependent, nuclide-specific data and the generally plentiful age-dependent physiological data now available. Moreover, an effort has been made to design the methodology so that constantly accumulating metabolic information can be incorporated with minimal alterations in the AGEDOS computer code. Some preliminary analyses performed by the authors, using the AGEDOS code in conjunction with age-dependent risk factors developed from the A-bomb survivor data and other studies, has indicated that the doses and subsequent risks of eventually experiencing radiogenic cancers may vary substantially with age for some exposure scenarios and may be relatively invariant with age for other scenarios. We believe that the AGEDOS methodology provides a convenient and efficient means for performing the internal dosimetry

  9. ESTIMATION OF AGE BY X-RAY EXAMINATION OF DISTAL END OF HUMERUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anju

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of age of a person, whether living or dead, is vexing problem for medical jurist.1 The duty of Forensic medicine knowledge expert is not only to examine dead bodies but also to give his opinion in living individual for solving various medico-legal problems like determination of age, identification, sexual assault, sterility, impotency, pregnancy, criminal abortion, disputed paternity, alcoholic intoxication etc. Skeletal age, dental age, morphological age, secondary sex character age are other method in use for asserting age of individual. In medico legal practice a combined view is taken and opinion is expressed after considering all methods. However radiological examination is a must and the court of law did not believe any conclusion without it.2 AIM AND OBJECTIVES: An extensive work has been carried out on the theme in different states of India and abroad as well. However, very little work has been reported with reference to Agra (U.P. population so the present study was conducted on Agra region population to study union of lower end of humerus for estimation of age. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This study was carried out in 100 males and 100 females between the age group of 10-20 years of normal healthy individuals whose exact date of birth was known were included in the study and the cases were collected from college and institutions by obtaining the permission from their head of the institution. In all cases right side is X-rayed (AP and Lateral view. RESULTS: It is clear from the observations that fusion of different ossification centers occurs 2-3 year earlier in female subjects as compared to male subject studied. It was found from the study that in females at the of 16 years all the epiphysis of lower end of humerus are fused. Medial epicondyle is the last epiphysis to fuse at lower end of humerus in both male and female. In male all epiphysis of lower end of humerus are fused except medial epicondyle at age of 16 years. The

  10. Differences between Estimation and Real Performance in School-Age Children: Fundamental Movement Skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Almeida

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Observations in studies of estimation compared to actual performance in motor skills revealed that children are not always accurate and have a tendency to overestimate the maximum distance at which an action can be performed. The relationship between estimated and real motor competences was analyzed for several tasks: standing long jump (SLJ, throwing and kicking, and walking backwards (WB on a balance beam. Children were asked to predict their maximum distance prior to performing those tasks. Participants were 303 children (160 boys, which were between 6 and 10 years of age (M=8.63, SD=1.16. Children’s estimations were compared with their real performance to determine their accuracy. Absolute error (|real performance − estimation| and error tendency, that is, the direction of the error (overestimation, accuracy, and underestimation bias, were calculated. Children had a tendency to overestimate their performance and were more conservative in the WB task, a noncommon action. In general, it is possible to conclude that children, in the studied age span, tend to overestimate their performance, particularly in familiar skills. This fact may be determinant to the development of their motor competences, since they are more likely to engage and persist in motor tasks, but it might also be a problem in terms of child safety because it could increase the occurrence of unintended injuries.

  11. Mineralization of mandibular third molars can estimate chronological age--Brazilian indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Fernando Toledo; Capelozza, Ana Lúcia Álvares; Lauris, José Roberto Pereira; de Bullen, Izabel Regina Fischer Rubira

    2012-06-10

    Forensic age estimation is an important element of anthropological research, as it produces one of the primary sources of data that researchers use to establish the identity of a person living or the identity of unknown bodily remains. The aim of this study was to determine if the chronology of third molar mineralization could be an accurate indicator of estimated age in a sample Brazilian population. If so, mineralization could determine the probability of an individual being 18 years or older. The study evaluated 407 panoramic radiographs of males and females from the past 5 years in order to assess the mineralization status of the mandibular third molars. The evaluation was carried out using an adaptation of Demirjian's system. The results indicated a strong correlation between chronological age and the mineralization of the mandibular third molars. The results indicated that modern Brazilian generation tends to demonstrate an earlier mandibular third molar mineralization than older Brazilian generation and people of other nationalities. Males reached developmental stages slightly earlier than females, but statistically significant differences between the sex were not found. The probability that an individual with third molar mineralization stage H had reached an age of 18 years or older was 96.8-98.6% for males and females, respectively.

  12. Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the no-analog problem yields cool ice age tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mix, A.C.; Morey, A.E.; Pisias, N.G.; Hostetler, S.W.

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5??to 6??C in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) [1981] and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAP's inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.

  13. Third molar development: evaluation of nine tooth development registration techniques for age estimations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, Patrick W; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2013-03-01

    Multiple third molar development registration techniques exist. Therefore the aim of this study was to detect which third molar development registration technique was most promising to use as a tool for subadult age estimation. On a collection of 1199 panoramic radiographs the development of all present third molars was registered following nine different registration techniques [Gleiser, Hunt (GH); Haavikko (HV); Demirjian (DM); Raungpaka (RA); Gustafson, Koch (GK); Harris, Nortje (HN); Kullman (KU); Moorrees (MO); Cameriere (CA)]. Regression models with age as response and the third molar registration as predictor were developed for each registration technique separately. The MO technique disclosed highest R(2) (F 51%, M 45%) and lowest root mean squared error (F 3.42 years; M 3.67 years) values, but differences with other techniques were small in magnitude. The amount of stages utilized in the explored staging techniques slightly influenced the age predictions.

  14. Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

    2010-01-01

    Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

  15. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  16. Discriminating the effects of phylogenetic hypothesis, tree resolution and clade age estimates on phylogenetic signal measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seger, G D S; Duarte, L D S; Debastiani, V J; Kindel, A; Jarenkow, J A

    2013-09-01

    Understanding how species traits evolved over time is the central question to comprehend assembly rules that govern the phylogenetic structure of communities. The measurement of phylogenetic signal (PS) in ecologically relevant traits is a first step to understand phylogenetically structured community patterns. The different methods available to estimate PS make it difficult to choose which is most appropriate. Furthermore, alternative phylogenetic tree hypotheses, node resolution and clade age estimates might influence PS measurements. In this study, we evaluated to what extent these parameters affect different methods of PS analysis, and discuss advantages and disadvantages when selecting which method to use. We measured fruit/seed traits and flowering/fruiting phenology of endozoochoric species occurring in Southern Brazilian Araucaria forests and evaluated their PS using Mantel regressions, phylogenetic eigenvector regressions (PVR) and K statistic. Mantel regressions always gave less significant results compared to PVR and K statistic in all combinations of phylogenetic trees constructed. Moreover, a better phylogenetic resolution affected PS, independently of the method used to estimate it. Morphological seed traits tended to show higher PS than diaspores traits, while PS in flowering/fruiting phenology depended mostly on the method used to estimate it. This study demonstrates that different PS estimates are obtained depending on the chosen method and the phylogenetic tree resolution. This finding has implications for inferences on phylogenetic niche conservatism or ecological processes determining phylogenetic community structure. PMID:23368095

  17. An evaluation of age estimation using teeth from South Asian River dolphins (Platanistidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina H Lockyer

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The South Asian river dolphins (Platanista gangetica minor and P. g. gangetica are endangered, geographically isolated, freshwater cetaceans. Accurate age estimation of individuals is an important aspect of population biology as it is used for calculating parameters such as age at maturity and reproduction, longevity, and growth and survival rates. However this has never been comprehensively studied for this endangered cetacean family. A sample of 41 teeth from 29 skulls stored in museum collections was available. We compared two different aging methods to select the most appropriate. This involved decalcification and freeze-sectioning of teeth at variable thicknesses (10–25 micron, and staining with 1 Toluidine Blue, or 2 Ehrlichs Acid Haematoxylin. Stains were then compared for readability of Growth Layer Groups (GLG. The optimum section was found at 20 micron using Erhlichs Acid Haematoxylin. Both dentinal and cemental GLG were readable and comparable, but cemental GLG were generally easier to interpret because they were better defined. Ages varied from newborn / young of year (with none or only a neonatal line present to a maximum age of 30 GLG. There is currently no validation available for GLG deposition rate, but it is likely annual because of the extreme seasonal changes in the river habitat. 

  18. Demirjian's system for estimating the dental age of northeastern Brazilian children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maia, Maria Cristina Germano; Martins, Maria da Gloria Almeida; Germano, Francisco Alcides; Brandão Neto, Jose; da Silva, Carlos Antonio Bruno

    2010-07-15

    Since Demirjian's system of estimating dental maturity was first described, many researchers from different countries have tested its accuracy among diverse populations. Some of these studies have pointed out a need to determine population-specific standards. In Brazil, the Northeast region is the one that most suffers the negative impact of exodus, specially related to the increase of abandoned children in the cities. The aim of this study was to test the accuracy of Demirjian's system for assessing the dental maturity of northeastern Brazilian children, so as to present a scale for maturity score conversion into dental age developed specifically for this population. This could be used for forensic, anthropological and legal matters, and also as a model for other countries attempting to formulate their own conversion scales. Panoramic radiographs of 1,491 children (821 females and 670 males), aged 7 to 13 years, from Ceará state, northeast Brazil, were assessed by a single observer to determine dental age (DA) according to Demirjian's system. The mean percentage of intra-observer agreement was 86.6%, with a mean Cohen's Kappa coefficient of 0.67 (substantial agreement). The DA was compared by paired t-test to subjects' chronological age (CA). The differences between CA and DA in all age groups were statistically significant (psystem in this population, justified the determination of specific scores for dental maturity assessment.

  19. Age estimation by dental developmental stages in children and adolescents in Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidisdottir, Sigridur Rosa; Richter, Svend

    2015-12-01

    Studies have shown that it is necessary to create a database for dental maturity for every population and compare it to others. The present study is the first one for dental development in the Icelandic population the age range being 4-24 years. It will help in forensic dental age estimation and will also help dentists, physicians, anthropologists, archaeologists and other professionals who rely on developmental age assessment in children and adolescents. In this present retrospective cross-sectional study, dental maturity was determined in 1100 Icelandic children and adolescents from orthopantomograms (OPGs). The first 100 were used for a pilot study and the remaining 1000 for the main study. A total of 23 subjects were excluded. The sample consisted of 508 girls and 469 boys from the age of 4-24 years and a dental developmental scoring system was used as a standard for determination of dental maturity stages. A total of 200 OPGs were studied both on the left and right side and the remaining on the right side. Dental maturity was established for all teeth and both genders, when the sample permitted, from the beginning of crown formation to the root apex closure. The Cronbach's Alpha reliability test showed high reliability, R=0.982. Girls in Iceland reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 17.81 years of age for the maxillary and at 18.47 years for the mandibular teeth. Boys reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 18.00 years of age in the maxilla and 17.63 in the mandible. There was no significant difference between left and right side (r=0.95-1.00) and there was no gender difference, except in root formation in maxillary and mandibular canines where girls reached root completed earlier than boys. A reliable database has been established in Iceland for tooth development in the age range of 4-24 years, which is compatible with international studies. These results will help forensic odontologists and other professionals to estimate with

  20. Estimation of gestational age in Egyptian native goats by ultrasonographic fetometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen, Aly M; Fattouh, El-Sayed M; Abu-Zeid, Saber S

    2009-08-01

    The main aim of the present study was to estimate the gestational age of Egyptian goats by B-mode ultrasound measurement of embryonic or fetal parts throughout pregnancy. Trans-rectal (TR) ultrasonography (7 MHz) was carried out on 15 pregnant Egyptian does at Day 10 post mating on alternate days until Day 25 and then once at 3-5-day intervals until Day 50. Trans-abdominal (TA) ultrasonography (3.5-5 MHz) was carried out on the same animals from Days 25 to 130 at 3-5-day intervals. After imaging the embryo or the fetus, the following parameters were measured: length of the embryo or fetus (CRL), heart rate (FHR), biparital diameter (BPD), trunk diameter (TD), placentome size (PS), umbilical cord diameter (UCD) and femur length (FL). The average of days at which the embryonic vesicle was first determined by TR and TA ultrasonography was 16.98+/-1.97 and 27.87+/-3.48, respectively. The embryo proper with a beating heart was first determined by TR and TA ultrasonography at an average of 22.36+/-2.66 and 30.36+/-4.75 days, respectively. All the fetal measures were significantly (P or =90) with the gestational age. In conclusion, the age of embryo or fetus in Egyptian does can be estimated by ultrasound measuring the crown rump length, biparital diameter, trunk diameter, placentome size, umbilical cord diameter and femur length. PMID:18805657

  1. Relative Expression of Indicators for Wound Age Estimation in Forensic Pathology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DU Qiu-xiang; WANG Xiao-wei; ZHANG Lei; LI San-qiang; GAO Cai-rong; WANG Ying-yuan; SUN Jun-hong

    2015-01-01

    Objective In order to understand which kind of function genes play an important role for es-timating wound age, the variation of difference genes’ mRNA expression were compared after injury. Methods T he mRNA expression levels of seven candidate genes (ICAM-1, NF-κB, MX2, MT1, MT2, sTnI, and Cox6c) were analyzed in contused rat skeletal muscle at different time points using real-time fluorescent quantitative PC R (R T-qPC R ). T he rawC t values were normalized relative to that of RPL32 mRNA , and converted to standard C t values. A t each time point after injury, the standard deviations (SD ) of the standard C t values were calculated by SPSS. Results T he expression trends of the seven genes were all found to be related to wound age, but there were lower variation coefficients and greater reliability of sTnI and Cox6c when compared with other genes. Conclusion T he genes encoding struc-tural proteins or proteins that performbasic functions can be suitable for wound age estimation.

  2. Efficiency of wear and decalcification technique for estimating the age of estuarine dolphin Sotalia guianensis

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nicolle V Sydney; Emygdio La Monteiro-Filho

    2011-03-01

    Most techniques used for estimating the age of Sotalia guianensis (van Bénéden, 1864) (Cetacea; Delphinidae) are very expensive, and require sophisticated equipment for preparing histological sections of teeth. The objective of this study was to test a more affordable and much simpler method, involving of the manual wear of teeth followed by decalcification and observation under a stereomicroscope. This technique has been employed successfully with larger species of Odontoceti. Twenty-six specimens were selected, and one tooth of each specimen was worn and demineralized for growth layers reading. Growth layers were evidenced in all specimens; however, in 4 of the 26 teeth, not all the layers could be clearly observed. In these teeth, there was a significant decrease of growth layer group thickness, thus hindering the layers count. The juxtaposition of layers hindered the reading of larger numbers of layers by the wear and decalcification technique. Analysis of more than 17 layers in a single tooth proved inconclusive. The method applied here proved to be efficient in estimating the age of Sotalia guianensis individuals younger than 18 years. This method could simplify the study of the age structure of the overall population, and allows the use of the more expensive methodologies to be confined to more specific studies of older specimens. It also enables the classification of the calf, young and adult classes, which is important for general population studies.

  3. The chronological age estimation of third molar mineralization of Han population in southwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Maofeng; Qiu, Lihua; Gao, Zhi; Bhandari, Kishor

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to estimate the chronology of third molar mineralization in Han population of southwestern China and find its unique characteristics so that it would provide a reference in several legal cases like forensic age estimation. The study used Demirjian's staging method to study 2192 orthopantomograms of 984 male and 1208 female subjects aged between 8 and 25 years. The statistical data was analyzed by Student's t test and ANOVA. The conclusions of the study are: (1) The chronological mineralization age of third molars of Han population in Southwestern China is similar to the Turkish and the Japanese, was earlier than the Austrian and Han of South China, but later than the Spanish. (2) The mineralization timing of the third molars between two sides in maxilla or mandible has no significant differences in the same gender group. (3) There is no significant difference in mineralization of third molars between male and female, except for tooth 48 in Demirjian's stage E. (4) The mineralization of third molar in maxilla is earlier than mandible.

  4. Hierarchical Bayesian approach for estimating physical properties in spiral galaxies: Age Maps for M74

    CERN Document Server

    Gil, M Carmen Sánchez; Alfaro, Emilio J; Pérez, Enrique; Sarro, Luis M

    2015-01-01

    One of the fundamental goals of modern Astronomy is to estimate the physical parameters of galaxies from images in different spectral bands. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model for obtaining age maps from images in the \\Ha\\ line (taken with Taurus Tunable Filter (TTF)), ultraviolet band (far UV or FUV, from GALEX) and infrared bands (24, 70 and 160 microns ($\\mu$m), from Spitzer). As shown in S\\'anchez-Gil et al. (2011), we present the burst ages for young stellar populations in the nearby and nearly face on galaxy M74. As it is shown in the previous work, the \\Ha\\ to FUV flux ratio gives a good relative indicator of very recent star formation history (SFH). As a nascent star-forming region evolves, the \\Ha\\ line emission declines earlier than the UV continuum, leading to a decrease in the \\Ha\\/FUV ratio. Through a specific star-forming galaxy model (Starburst 99, SB99), we can obtain the corresponding theoretical ratio \\Ha\\ / FUV to compare with our observed flux ratios, and thus to estimate the ages of...

  5. Dental age estimation utilizing third molar development: A review of principles, methods, and population studies used in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, James M; Senn, David R

    2010-09-10

    When an individual reaches the age of legal majority, their treatment within the criminal and civil legal systems is changed dramatically in the United States. Forensic odontologists are often asked to assist government agencies in estimating the ages of persons who may or may not have reached that legally important age. The third molars are the only teeth useful as forensic estimators of chronological age in the target age group. This study reviews the principles, methodology, and population data of the most commonly used technique in the United States, the analysis of the third molar development based on modified Demirjian staging. The method analyzes the developing third molar to estimate mean age, age intervals and the empirical probability that an individual has reached the anniversary of her or his eighteenth birthday.

  6. Estimating Modifying Effect of Age on Genetic and Environmental Variance Components in Twin Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Liang; Sillanpää, Mikko J; Silventoinen, Karri; Kaprio, Jaakko; Pitkäniemi, Janne

    2016-04-01

    Twin studies have been adopted for decades to disentangle the relative genetic and environmental contributions for a wide range of traits. However, heritability estimation based on the classical twin models does not take into account dynamic behavior of the variance components over age. Varying variance of the genetic component over age can imply the existence of gene-environment (G×E) interactions that general genome-wide association studies (GWAS) fail to capture, which may lead to the inconsistency of heritability estimates between twin design and GWAS. Existing parametricG×Einteraction models for twin studies are limited by assuming a linear or quadratic form of the variance curves with respect to a moderator that can, however, be overly restricted in reality. Here we propose spline-based approaches to explore the variance curves of the genetic and environmental components. We choose the additive genetic, common, and unique environmental variance components (ACE) model as the starting point. We treat the component variances as variance functions with respect to age modeled by B-splines or P-splines. We develop an empirical Bayes method to estimate the variance curves together with their confidence bands and provide an R package for public use. Our simulations demonstrate that the proposed methods accurately capture dynamic behavior of the component variances in terms of mean square errors with a data set of >10,000 twin pairs. Using the proposed methods as an alternative and major extension to the classical twin models, our analyses with a large-scale Finnish twin data set (19,510 MZ twins and 27,312 DZ same-sex twins) discover that the variances of the A, C, and E components for body mass index (BMI) change substantially across life span in different patterns and the heritability of BMI drops to ∼50% after middle age. The results further indicate that the decline of heritability is due to increasing unique environmental variance, which provides more

  7. Age and Mass Estimates for 41 Star Clusters in M33

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Ma; Xu Zhou; Jian-Sheng Chen

    2004-01-01

    In this second paper of our. series, we estimate the age of 41 star clusters,which were detected by Melnick & D'odorico in the nearby spiral galaxy M33, by comparing the integrated photometric measurements with theoretical stellar population synthesis models of Bruzual & Charlot. Also, we calculate the mass of these star clusters using the theoretical M/Lv ratio. The results show that, these star clusters formed continuously in M33 from ~ 7 × 106 - 1010 years and have masses between ~ 103 and 2 × 106 M . M33 frames were observed as a part of the BATC Multicolor Survey of the sky in 13 intermediate-band filters from 3800 to 10 000A.The relation between age and mass confirms that the sample star cluster masses systematically decrease from the oldest to the youngest.

  8. Helping others use social media: age stereotypes when estimating learner’s success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harvey J. Ginsburg

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Social networking sites (SNS include online products such as Facebook that allow users to build and maintain large interpersonal Internet networks. Older adult users have dramatically increased (Duggan & Smith, 2014. This investigation examined how 212 university undergraduate Facebook users estimated success with helping others use Facebook when learner’s age (20, 40, 60 year olds. and type of acquaintance (friend or kin was manipulated in hypothetical scenarios. In these scenarios, a person is identified as KW, described as being a college student much like the participant. KW has 20, 40 or 60 year-old acquaintances, a friend or a kin at each age, all wanting KW’s help learning about social media. This was the only information provided. Qualities and strengths of these interpersonal relationships were not examined. Results from repeated measures 2x3 ANOVA showed a significant main effect for age, but no effect for acquaintance type. Results showed no significant interaction. Although the age demographic above 50 years is the fastest growing SNS group, results showed possible age stereotyping among youth when they assist older adults learning to use SNS. This age effect may be lessened as older adults become more skillful social media users. These findings are limited because of the sample demographics and a lack of identifying qualities of participants’attributions about the hypothetical friends or relatives. Future research using multiple items per condition might be able to further elucidate how the type of associations between helper and learner, close or distant, positive or negative, would influence outcomes.

  9. Estimation of mechanical properties of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy- impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and JIC of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The ''saturation'' impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The JIC values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common ''lower-bound'' J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature

  10. Estimation of mechanical properties of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy-impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and JIC of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The ''saturation'' impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The JIC values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common predicted lower-bound J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature

  11. Thermal aging of cast stainless steels in LWR systems: Estimation of mechanical properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy-impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and JIC of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The ''saturation'' impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The JIC values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common ''lower-bound'' J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature

  12. The use of otolith microstructure to estimate age in adult Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hüssy, Karin; Hinrichsen, H.H.; Fey, D.P.;

    2010-01-01

    be tightly coupled to the annual cycle in environmental temperature at a depth of 30–60 m, where G. morhua predominantly reside. Between 135 and 200 increments occurred within the different zones, with a non-significant trend towards lower increment numbers and widths with distance from the primary...... primordium of the otolith. Increment formation apparently ceased at temperatures <5–6° C, but growth during the cold months corresponded closely with estimated growth rates. The increment patterns seemed to reflect annual cycles in environmental temperature, and the count of the increment cycles may thus be...... a promising tool for the determination of the true age of Baltic G. morhua....

  13. Estimating the value of volunteer-assisted community-based aging services: a case example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharlach, Andrew E

    2015-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of a social return on investment (SROI) approach in estimating the financial and social value created by volunteer-assisted community-based aging services. An expanded value added statement (EVAS) analysis found that the total value of outputs produced by the Concierge Club of San Diego substantially exceeded the cost of the program, after considering likely secondary and tertiary benefits for a range of affected stakeholders-including elderly service recipients, family members, volunteers, and societal institutions. Additional research is needed regarding the direct and indirect costs and benefits of volunteer support services for vulnerable older adults and their families. PMID:25551169

  14. Estimation of legal age using calcification stages of third molars in living individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streckbein, Philipp; Reichert, Isabelle; Verhoff, Marcel A; Bödeker, Rolf-Hasso; Kähling, Christopher; Wilbrand, Jan-Falco; Schaaf, Heidrun; Howaldt, Hans-Peter; May, Andreas

    2014-12-01

    The increased number of adolescents and young adults with unknown or inaccurately given date of birth is a current issue in justice and legal medicine. The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which third molar calcification stages assessed on panoramic X-rays could be useful as additional criteria for forensic age estimation in living individuals, focusing on the legally important ages 17 and 18. In a retrospective multi-center study, the developmental stage of each individual's third molar was analyzed using Demirjian's scale in 2360 cases. Additionally, sex, age and ancestry were assessed. Individuals with the lowest calcification stage of all present molars in stage H were ≥18 years with a likelihood of ≥99.05% in the female (n=388), and ≥99.24% in the male (n=482) population. The lowest calcification stage of all present third molars proved to be useful as an additional reliable criterion for the determination of an age ≥18 years.

  15. The Ages of A-Stars I: Interferometric Observations and Age Estimates for Stars in the Ursa Major Moving Group

    CERN Document Server

    Jones, Jeremy; Boyajian, T; Schaefer, G; Baines, E; Ireland, M; Patience, J; Brummelaar, T ten; McAlister, H; Ridgway, S T; Sturmann, J; Sturmann, L; Turner, N; Farrington, C; Goldfinger, P J

    2015-01-01

    We have observed and spatially resolved a set of seven A-type stars in the nearby Ursa Major moving group with the Classic, CLIMB, and PAVO beam combiners on the CHARA Array. At least four of these stars have large rotational velocities ($v \\sin i$ $\\gtrsim$ 170 $\\mathrm{km~s^{-1}}$) and are expected to be oblate. These interferometric measurements, the stars' observed photometric energy distributions, and $v \\sin i$ values are used to computationally construct model oblate stars from which stellar properties (inclination, rotational velocity, and the radius and effective temperature as a function of latitude, etc.) are determined. The results are compared with MESA stellar evolution models (Paxton et al. 2011, 2013) to determine masses and ages. The value of this new technique is that it enables the estimation of the fundamental properties of rapidly rotating stars without the need to fully image the star. It can thus be applied to stars with sizes comparable to the interferometric resolution limit as oppose...

  16. Postnatal growth, age estimation and development of foraging behaviour in the fulvous fruit bat Rousettus leschenaulti

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    V Elangovan; H Raghuram; E Yuvana Satya Priya; G Marimuthu

    2002-12-01

    This study documents the postnatal growth, age estimation and development of the foraging behaviour of the fulvous fruit bat Rousettus leschenaulti under captive conditions. At birth, the young were naked and pink with closed eyes and folded pinnae. By day four of age, their eyes had opened and the pups began to move. The mean length of forearm in 5-day-old pups was 24.9 mm and body mass was 10.8 g, equivalent to 32.3% and 14.2% of the values from postpartum females. The length of forearm and body mass increased linearly until 45 and 50 days, respectively, and thereafter maintained an apparent stability. The epiphyseal gap of the fourth metacarpalphalangeal joint increased until 15 days, then decreased linearly until 75 days and thereafter closed. Age was estimated quantitatively, based on linear changes observed in the length of the forearm and epiphyseal gap. Pups began to roost separately, but adjacent to their mothers when 30 days old and flew clumsily when they were about 40 days old. After attaining clumsy flight, the young bats made independent foraging attempts feebly by biting and licking small fruit pieces. Young bats were engaged in suckling as well as ingesting fruits when they were about 50 days old. Between 55 and 65 days, they flew well and fed on fruits. At the age of 75 days, the young bats were completely weaned and at two months, their foraging behaviour was similar to that of their mothers. There was no significant difference in the growth pattern of the young maintained in captivity compared with those under natural conditions.

  17. Age estimation in forensic sciences: Application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alkass, K; Buchholz, B A; Ohtani, S; Yamamoto, T; Druid, H; Spalding, S L

    2009-11-02

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster, since the age at death, birth date and year of death, as well as gender, can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this paper we analyze teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that above-ground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ({sup 14}C) which have been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel and ten of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2=0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 0.6 {+-} 04 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 {+-} 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  18. Radii, masses, and ages of 18 bright stars using interferometry and new estimations of exoplanetary parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ligi, R.; Creevey, O.; Mourard, D.; Crida, A.; Lagrange, A.-M.; Nardetto, N.; Perraut, K.; Schultheis, M.; Tallon-Bosc, I.; ten Brummelaar, T.

    2016-02-01

    Context. Accurate stellar parameters are needed in numerous domains of astrophysics. The position of stars on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram is an important indication of their structure and evolution, and it helps improve stellar models. Furthermore, the age and mass of stars hosting planets are required elements for studying exoplanetary systems. Aims: We aim at determining accurate parameters of a set of 18 bright exoplanet host and potential host stars from interferometric measurements, photometry, and stellar models. Methods: Using the VEGA/CHARA interferometer operating in the visible domain, we measured the angular diameters of 18 stars, ten of which host exoplanets. We combined them with their distances to estimate their radii. We used photometry to derive their bolometric flux and, then, their effective temperature and luminosity to place them on the H-R diagram. We then used the PARSEC models to derive their best fit ages and masses, with error bars derived from Monte Carlo calculations. Results: Our interferometric measurements lead to an average of 1.9% uncertainty on angular diameters and 3% on stellar radii. There is good agreement between measured and indirect estimations of angular diameters (either from SED fitting or from surface brightness relations) for main sequence (MS) stars, but not as good for more evolved stars. For each star, we provide a likelihood map in the mass-age plane; typically, two distinct sets of solutions appear (an old and a young age). The errors on the ages and masses that we provide account for the metallicity uncertainties, which are often neglected by other works. From measurements of its radius and density, we also provide the mass of 55 Cnc independently of models. From the stellar masses, we provide new estimates of semi-major axes and minimum masses of exoplanets with reliable uncertainties. We also derive the radius, density, and mass of 55 Cnc e, a super-Earth that transits its stellar host. Our exoplanetary

  19. PREDICTION OF CARCASS TRAITS OF JAPANESE BLACK BULLS AT SEVERAL AGES USING BODY MEASUREMENTS AND ULTRASONIC ESTIMATE OF CARCASS TRAITS

    OpenAIRE

    Sri Rachma, Aprilita Bugiwati

    2008-01-01

    The present research aims to estimate the mathematical equations for predicting ultrasonic estimates of carcass traits at ten months after performance test (about 20 months of age) using body measurements and ultrasonic estimates of carcass traits at earlier stages of performance test of Japanese Black bulls. This research was done at Kagoshima and Miyazaki prefecture Livestock Experimental Stations Japan to collect the ultrasonic estimates of carcass traits and body measurements data of Jap...

  20. Estimation of dental age by Nolla’s method using orthopantomographs among rural free residential school children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandlal B, Karthikeya Patil, Ravi S

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Teeth and dental restorations are resistant to destruction by fire and the elements are therefore useful in identification. This permits accurate identification of a missing child or remains. The Rural Residential free school at Suttur houses a large number of inmates and hence dental records are kept for their identification. Objective: Estimation of Age of children. Methods: Orthopantomographs were used to study for estimation of age of children, using a Nolla’s method of dental age estimation. Results: In this study Nolla’s method underestimated the chronological age of the individuals and underestimation of age increased as the chronological age of the individuals increased. Conclusion: Studies involving larger sample size and population specific data needs to be developed.

  1. Dental age estimation in Japanese individuals combining permanent teeth and third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanan, Namratha; Thevissen, Patrick; Fleuws, Steffen; Willems, G

    2012-12-01

    The study aim was, firstly, to verify the Willems et al. model on a Japanese reference sample. Secondly to develop a Japanese reference model based on the Willems et al. method and to verify it. Thirdly to analyze the age prediction performance adding tooth development information of third molars to permanent teeth. Retrospectively 1877 panoramic radiographs were selected in the age range between 1 and 23 years (1248 children, 629 sub-adults). Dental development was registered applying Demirjian 's stages of the mandibular left permanent teeth in children and Köhler stages on the third molars. The children's data were, firstly, used to validate the Willems et al. model (developed a Belgian reference sample), secondly, split ino a training and a test sample. On the training sample a Japanese reference model was developed based on the Willems method. The developed model and the Willems et al; model were verified on the test sample. Regression analysis was used to detect the age prediction performance adding third molar scores to permanent tooth scores. The validated Willems et al. model provided a mean absolute error of 0.85 and 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. The mean absolute error in the verified Willems et al. and the developed Japanese reference model was 0.85, 0.77 and 0.79, 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. On average a negligible change in root mean square error values was detected adding third molar scores to permanent teeth scores. The Belgian sample could be used as a reference model to estimate the age of the Japanese individuals. Combining information from the third molars and permanent teeth was not providing clinically significant improvement of age predictions based on permanent teeth information alone.

  2. Age- and sex-dependent model for estimating radioiodine dose to a normal thyroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to 131I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In most cases, the available data consisted of the patient's age at the time of administration, the patient's sex, the quantity of activity administered, the clinically-determined uptake of radioiodine by the thyroid, and the time after administration at which the uptake was determined. The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K[exp(-μ1t) -exp(-μ2t)] (μCi), where μ1 = λ/sub r/ - λ/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), λ/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and λ/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal rate coefficients. The values of λ/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time or maximum uptake an the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). The value of K may then be calculated from knowledge of the uptakes at a particular time. The dosimetric S-factor (rad/μCi-day) is based on specific absorbed fractions for photons of energy ranging from 0.01 to 4.0 MeV for thyroid masses from 1.29 to 19.6 g; the functional form of the S-factor also involves the thyroid mass explicitly, through which the dependence on age and sex enters. An analysis of sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the thyroid mass and the biological removal rate for several age groups is reported. 12 references, 5 figures, 5 tables

  3. Dental age estimation and different predictive ability of various tooth types in the Czech population: data mining methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velemínská, Jana; Pilný, Ales; Cepek, Miroslav; Kot'ová, Magdaléna; Kubelková, Radka

    2013-01-01

    Dental development is frequently used to estimate age in many anthropological specializations. The aim of this study was to extract an accurate predictive age system for the Czech population and to discover any different predictive ability of various tooth types and their ontogenetic stability during infancy and adolescence. A cross-sectional panoramic X-ray study was based on developmental stages assessment of mandibular teeth (Moorrees et al. 1963) using 1393 individuals aged from 3 to 17 years. Data mining methods were used for dental age estimation. These are based on nonlinear relationships between the predicted age and data sets. Compared with other tested predictive models, the GAME method predicted age with the highest accuracy. Age-interval estimations between the 10th and 90th percentiles ranged from -1.06 to +1.01 years in girls and from -1.13 to +1.20 in boys. Accuracy was expressed by RMS error, which is the average deviation between estimated and chronological age. The predictive value of individual teeth changed during the investigated period from 3 to 17 years. When we evaluated the whole period, the second molars exhibited the best predictive ability. When evaluating partial age periods, we found that the accuracy of biological age prediction declines with increasing age (from 0.52 to 1.20 years in girls and from 0.62 to 1.22 years in boys) and that the predictive importance of tooth types changes, depending on variability and the number of developmental stages in the age interval. GAME is a promising tool for age-interval estimation studies as they can provide reliable predictive models. PMID:24466642

  4. Old stellar population synthesis: new age and mass estimates for Mayall Ⅱ = G1

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Ma; Richard de Grijs; Zhou Fan; Soo-Chang Rey; Zhen-Yu Wu; Xu Zhou; Jiang-Hua Wu; Zhao-Ji Jiang; Jian-Sheng Chen; Kyungsook Lee; Sangmo Tony Sohn

    2009-01-01

    Mayall Ⅱ = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters (GCs) in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theo-retical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBV RI, and infrared JHK8 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20000A. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar pop-ulation (SSP) models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ~1.7Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates (of order 107M⊙) indicate that G1 is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster's exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, (1.65±0.63) × 102L⊙ far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depend-ing on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar pho-tometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.

  5. Estimation of age based on tooth cementum annulations: A comparative study using light, polarized, and phase contrast microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, Prabhpreet; Astekar, Madhusudan; Singh, Jappreet; Arora, Karandeep Singh; Bhalla, Gagandeep

    2015-01-01

    Context: The identification of living or deceased persons using unique traits and characteristics of the teeth and jaws is a cornerstone of forensic science. Teeth have been used to estimate age both in the young and old, as well as in the living and dead. Gradual structural changes in teeth throughout life are the basis for age estimation. Tooth cementum annulation (TCA) is a microscopic method for the determination of an individual's age based on the analysis of incremental lines of cementum. Aim: To compare ages estimated using incremental lines of cementum as visualized by bright field microscopy, polarized microscopy, and phase contrast microscopy with the actual age of subject and to determine accuracy and feasibility of the method used. Materials and Methods: Cementum annulations of 60 permanent teeth were analyzed after longitudinal ground sections were made in the mesiodistal plane. The incremental lines were counted manually using a light, polarized and phase contrast microscopy. Ages were estimated and then compared with the actual age of individual. Statistical Analysis: Analysis of variance (ANOVA), Student's t-test, the Pearson product-moment corre (PPMCC) and regression analysis were performed. Results: PPMCC value r = 0.347, 0.542 and 0.989 were obtained using light, polarized and phase contrast microscopy methods respectively. Conclusion: It was concluded that incremental lines of cementum were most clearly visible under a phase contrast microscope, followed by a polarized microscope, and then a light microscope when used for age estimation. PMID:26816462

  6. Estimating age ratios and size of pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel H Monson

    Full Text Available During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010-2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m(2 (std. err. = 0.02, herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03-0.06 and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0-2 yr-olds tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  7. Estimating age ratios and size of Pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ~30,000 animals along ~1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  8. The Use of CT Scans in Estimating Age at Death by Examining the Extent of Ectocranial Suture Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyd, Kristen Leigh; Villa, Chiara; Lynnerup, Niels

    2015-01-01

    -aged individuals. ANOVA test revealed no difference between two groups of scans and between left and right sides (p > 0.05). Interobserver agreement was good, especially considering the score by sides. The results of this study create the base for developing a robust and simple method to estimate the age at death...

  9. Estimating true age-dependence in survival when only adults can be observed: an example with Black-legged Kittiwakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederiksen, M.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available In long-lived birds, pre-breeders are often difficult or impossible to observe, and even though a proportion of marked adults may be of known age, the estimation of age-specific survival is complicated by the absence of observations during the first years of life. New developments in MARK now allow use of an updated individual covariate. We used this powerful approach to model age-dependence in survival of Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla at a North Sea colony. Although only 69 marked breeders were of known age, there was strong evidence for a quadratic relationship between true age and survival. We believe that this simple but powerful approach could be implemented for many species and could provide improved estimates of how survival changes with age, a central theme in life history theory.

  10. Contribution of Quantitative Methods of Estimating Mortality Dynamics to Explaining Mechanisms of Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilovsky, G A; Putyatina, T S; Markov, A V; Skulachev, V P

    2015-12-01

    Accumulation of various types of unrepaired damage of the genome because of increasing production of reactive oxygen species and decreasing efficiency of the antioxidant defense system and repair systems can cause age-related diseases and emergence of phenotypic signs of senescence. This should lead to increasing vulnerability and to mortality monotonously increasing with age independently of the position of the species on the evolutionary tree. In this light, the survival, mortality, and fertility curves for 45 animal and plant species and one alga published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany/Denmark) are of special interest (Jones, O. R., et al. (2014) Nature, 505, 169-173). We divided all species treated in that study into four groups according to the ratio of mortality at the terminal age (which corresponds to 5% survival) and average mortality during the entire studied period. For animals of group IV (long-lived and senescent), including humans, the Jones method makes it possible to trace mortality during the entire life cycle. The same applies to short-lived animals (e.g. nematodes or the tundra vole), whether they display the Gompertz type of senescence or not. However, in long-lived species with a less pronounced increase in mortality with age (e.g. the freshwater crocodile, hermit crab, or Scots pine), as well as in animals of average lifespan that reach the terminal age earlier than they could have enough time to become senescent, the Jones method is capable of characterizing only a small part of the life cycle and does not allow judging how senescence manifests itself at late stages of the life cycle. Thus, it is known that old trees display signs of biological senescence rather clearly; although Jones et al. consider them non-senescent organisms because less than 5% of sexually mature individuals survive to display the first manifestations of these characters. We have concluded that the classification proposed by Jones et al

  11. Method of estimation of technical preparedness level of baseballs aged 12-14 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agapov D.V.

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The method of estimation of level of technical preparedness is developed for young baseballs. The scale of estimation of level of technical preparedness of sportsmen is formed on the method of sigmantion rejections. In an experiment took part 100 boys in age 12-14 years. The test of the program «Aquafina MLB Pitch was utillized, Hit & Run». The maximally attained indexes are certain on separate baseball skills. The level of development of technical preparedness is exposed after an experiment on the program: a test of «pitch» is 450 marks, a test of «hit» is 402 marks, a test of «run» is a 361 mark, indexes of general marks are 1043 marks. The comparative analysis of level of technical preparedness of baseballs of control and experimental groups is conducted. Authenticity of distinctions is proved between control and experimental groups on the followings criteria of technical preparedness: throw, blow at run.

  12. Improved age estimates for key Late Quaternary European tephra horizons in the RESET lattice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Albert, Paul G.; Blockley, Simon P. E.; Hardiman, Mark; Housley, Rupert A.; Lane, Christine S.; Lee, Sharen; Matthews, Ian P.; Smith, Victoria C.; Lowe, John J.

    2015-06-01

    The research project 'Response of Humans to Abrupt Environmental Transitions' (RESET) used tephra layers to tie together and synchronise the chronologies of stratigraphic records at archaeological and environmental sites. With the increasing importance of tephra as chronological markers in sedimentary sequences, both in this project and more generally, comes a requirement to have good estimates for the absolute age of these volcanic horizons. This paper summarises the chronology of the key tephra in the RESET tephra lattice in the time range 10-60 ka BP, from the existing literature, from papers produced as part of the RESET project, and reanalysis conducted for this paper. The paper outlines the chronological approach taken to the dating of tephra within the RESET project, and the basis for further work, as part of the INTIMATE (INTegrating Ice core MArine and TErrestrial records) initiative. For each of the tephra layers in the lattice, the existing literature is discussed and, where relevant date estimates updated using the latest radiocarbon calibration curves (IntCal13 and Marine13) and methods. Maps show the approximate extent of tephra finds, giving a visual indication of the coverage of the lattice in different time-periods.

  13. Estimation of optimal lysine in quail chicks during the second and third weeks of age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehran Mehri

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available An experiment was conducted to assess the optimal levels of dietary lysine (Lys in Japanese quail from 7 to 21 days of age. A dose-response diet was formulated to be adequate in all amino acid concentrations with the exception of Lys. Different levels of supplemental L-Lysine.HCl were added to the dose-response diet at the expense of corn starch, sodium bicarbonate, and NaCl to create 6 levels of Lys ranged from 0.91% to 1.51% in diet. Optimal Lys for feed conversion ratio, breast meat yield, and leg meat yield were estimated at 1.15%, 1.21%, and 1.16% of diet, respectively, based on linear broken-line regression. With quadratic broken-line regression, the Lys requirements for body weight gain, feed conversion ratio, thigh meat yield, and breast meat yield were estimated at 1.27%, 1.21%, 1.32%, and 1.34% of diet, respectively. Overall, Lys requirements of starting Japanese quail may be at least 1.34% of diet for optimizing carcass attributes fed low-CP dose-response diet.

  14. Dental age estimation in living individuals using 3.0 T MRI of lower third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yucheng; Olze, Andreas; Ottow, Christian; Schmidt, Sven; Schulz, Ronald; Heindel, Walter; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Vieth, Volker; Schmeling, Andreas

    2015-11-01

    In order to increase the validity of age estimation in adolescents and young adults when there is no legitimation for X-ray examinations, it seems desirable to be able to assess the mineralization of third molars using X-ray-free imaging procedures. In the present study, the mineralization stages of lower third molars were determined prospectively in 269 male and 248 female individuals aged 12 to 24 years using 3.0 T MRI. The classification system of Demirjian et al. was used to determine the stages. This study presents the minima and maxima, means and standard deviations, median values, and lower and upper quartiles separately for both sexes, for the mineralization stages B-H. Statistically significant sex differences were observed for the mineralization stages C, E, F, and G, and a faster developmental rate was observed for males. It was concluded that magnetic resonance imaging is an X-ray-free alternative to orthopantomography when assessing mineralization of third molars.

  15. Radii, masses, and ages of 18 bright stars using interferometry. And new estimations of exoplanetary parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Ligi, Roxanne; Mourard, Denis; Crida, Aurélien; Lagrange, Anne-Marie; Nardetto, Nicolas; Perraut, Karine; Schultheis, Mathias

    2015-01-01

    Accurate stellar parameters are needed in numerous domains of astrophysics. The position of stars on the H-R diagram is an important indication of their structure and evolution, and it helps improve stellar models. Furthermore, the age and mass of stars hosting planets are required elements for studying exoplanetary systems. We aim at determining accurate parameters of a set of 18 bright exoplanet host and potential host stars from interferometric measurements, photometry, and stellar models. Using the VEGA/CHARA interferometer, we measured the angular diameters of 18 stars, ten of which host exoplanets. We combined them with their distances to estimate their radii. We used photometry to derive their bolometric flux and, then, their effective temperature and luminosity to place them on the H-R diagram. We then used the PARSEC models to derive their best fit ages and masses, with error bars derived from MC calculations. Our interferometric measurements lead to an average of 1.9% uncertainty on angular diameter...

  16. Age difference in deposition of plutonium in organs of rats and the estimation of distribution in humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Differences in plutonium distribution in various organs, particularly the bones, of rats injected at different ages were examined in order to aid in estimating plutonium distribution in humans. Comparisons were made between rats and humans based on the bone histomorphometric and mineral density data. Male and female rats of three ages (3, 12, and 24 months old), respectively, received an injection of plutonium nitrate by two dose modalities; a fixed amount of plutonium without regard to age, sex, or body weight; per g of body weight. The rats were killed 2 weeks after the injection of plutonium. The amounts of plutonium deposited in the organs varied without regard to the body or organ weight; those in the skeleton increased from 3 to 12 months, reaching a peak at 12 months, but then decreased, along with the age-related changes in the bone surface, volume, and mineral density. Those in the liver, spleen and kidney decreased despite the body weight gain with age in both sexes. Age-related differences in the deposition of plutonium in humans were estimated based on the bone data characteristics obtained from the histomorphometry and bone mineral density for corresponding of ages between rats and humans. The results indicate that age is the most important factor in estimating the distribution of plutonium deposition in the early period after plutonium exposure, and that body or organ weight is not always a useful indicator, particularly in the aged. (author)

  17. Estimation of Charpy notch toughness for thermal aging specimens of cast duplex stainless steel using thermalelectric power measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The material properties of cast duplex stainless steel, which is used for main coolant pipes of PWR (pressurized water reactor) type nuclear power plants, change due to thermal aging. Therefore it is advisable to evaluate these changes of material properties non-destructively for maintenance of the plant component. In order to establish a non-destructive evaluation procedure for the degree of thermal aging of cast duplex stainless steel, thermoelectric power (TEP) measurements were carried out with a newly made TEP meter for thermal aging specimens, with different ferrite contents, aging temperatures and aging periods. Then the relationship between TEP and notch toughness obtained by Charpy impact test was investigated. As the results: (1) TEP increases due to thermal aging. The higher ferrite content, the higher TEP. The higher aging temperature, the more rapidly TEP increases. (2) Because of the decrease of Charpy notch toughness and the increase of TEP due to the fluctuation of Cr concentration caused by the phase separation of the ferrite phase, TEP increases by thermal aging as the Charpy notch toughness decreases. (3) Regardless of the aging temperature, the specimens with the same ferrite content have the same relationship between Charpy notch toughness and TEP. (4) It is possible to estimate Charpy notch toughness with an error of 100 J/cm2 by TEP in the beginning of aging. Therefore, it can be concluded that we can estimate Charpy notch toughness for cast duplex stainless steel by TEP depending on the ferrite content regardless of the aging temperature. (author)

  18. Should total landings be used to correct estimated catch in numbers or mean-weight-at-age?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lewy, Peter; Lassen, H.

    1997-01-01

    discrepancies some countries correct catch in numbers while others correct mean weight-at-age by a common factor, the ratio between landing and SOP. The paper shows that for three sampling schemes the SOP corrections are statistically incorrect and should not be made since the SOP is an unbiased estimate...... of the total landings. Calculation of the bias of estimated catch in numbers and mean weight-at-age shows that SOP corrections of either of these estimates may increase the bias. Furthermore, for five demersal and one pelagic North Sea species it is shown that SOP discrepancies greater than 2% from...

  19. Self-estimation of Body Fat is More Accurate in College-age Males Compared to Females

    OpenAIRE

    HANCOCK, HALLEY L.; Jung, Alan P.; Petrella, John K.

    2012-01-01

    The objective was to determine the effect of gender on the ability to accurately estimate one’s own body fat percentage. Fifty-five college-age males and 99 college-age females participated. Participants estimated their own body fat percent before having their body composition measured using a BOD POD. Participants also completed a modified Social Physique Anxiety Scale (SPAS). Estimated body fat was significantly lower compared to measured body fat percent in females (26.8±5.6% vs. 30.2±7.0%...

  20. Multivariate methods for the analysis of complex and big data in forensic sciences. Application to age estimation in living persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefèvre, Thomas; Chariot, Patrick; Chauvin, Pierre

    2016-09-01

    Researchers handle increasingly higher dimensional datasets, with many variables to explore. Such datasets pose several problems, since they are difficult to handle and present unexpected features. As dimensionality increases, classical statistical analysis becomes inoperative. Variables can present redundancy, and the reduction of dataset dimensionality to its lowest possible value is often needed. Principal components analysis (PCA) has proven useful to reduce dimensionality but present several shortcomings. As others, forensic sciences will face the issues specific related to an evergrowing quantity of data to be integrated. Age estimation in living persons, an unsolved problem so far, could benefit from the integration of various sources of data, e.g., clinical, dental and radiological data. We present here novel multivariate techniques (nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques, NLDR), applied to a theoretical example. Results were compared to those of PCA. NLDR techniques were then applied to clinical, dental and radiological data (13 variables) used for age estimation. The correlation dimension of these data was estimated. NLDR techniques outperformed PCA results. They showed that two living persons sharing similar characteristics may present rather different estimated ages. Moreover, data presented a very high informational redundancy, i.e., a correlation dimension of 2. NLDR techniques should be used with or preferred to PCA techniques to analyze complex and big data. Data routinely used for age estimation may not be considered suitable for this purpose. How integrating other data or approaches could improve age estimation in living persons is still uncertain.

  1. Age and growth estimation of bigeye tuna, Thunnus obesus (Teleostei: Scombridae in the southwestern Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Duarte-Neto

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the current study was to supply the first information on age and growth for Thunnus obesus caught in the equatorial south-western Atlantic using dorsal spines, an approach that has been successfully employed for ageing tuna species. The study was conducted using a multi-model inference based on information theory for back-calculated and observed length-at-age data. Uncertainty associated with the parameter estimation was verified and results were compared to other accounts on the species, considering both the statistical and methodological contexts. Samples were collected in Natal city (Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil from February 1999 to January 2000, of tuna vessels and from surveys, aimed at providing information on the Brazilian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ in the area around São Pedro and São Paulo Archipelago. Validation using marginal increment indicated that one ring is deposited per year. Mean length-at-age ranged of 54.3 to 177.5 cm (fork length for ages 1 to 9 years. Von Bertalanffy, Richards, and Gompertz models were considered suitable for the bigeye tuna. Hence, the model-averaged asymptotic length ¯L∞ was estimated. The averaged model generated in the present study by back-calculation was considered appropriate for describing the growth of T. obesus.A proposta do presente estudo foi fornecer a primeira informação sobre idade e crescimento de Thunnus obesus, capturado no Atlântico sudoeste equatorial usando espinhos dorsais, uma abordagem que tem sido utilizada com sucesso na determinação de idade de espécies de atuns. O estudo foi conduzido usando uma inferência de multi-modelos baseada na teoria de informação avaliada para dados de comprimento por idade retrocalculados e observados. Incertezas associadas aos parâmetros foram verificadas e os resultados foram comparados aos de outros estudos realizados para esta espécie, considerando os contextos estatísticos e metodológicos. As amostras foram

  2. Radiologic assessment of third molar tooth and spheno-occipital synchondrosis for age estimation: a multiple regression analysis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirturk Kocasarac, Husniye; Sinanoglu, Alper; Noujeim, Marcel; Helvacioglu Yigit, Dilek; Baydemir, Canan

    2016-05-01

    For forensic age estimation, radiographic assessment of third molar mineralization is important between 14 and 21 years which coincides with the legal age in most countries. The spheno-occipital synchondrosis (SOS) is an important growth site during development, and its use for age estimation is beneficial when combined with other markers. In this study, we aimed to develop a regression model to estimate and narrow the age range based on the radiologic assessment of third molar and SOS in a Turkish subpopulation. Panoramic radiographs and cone beam CT scans of 349 subjects (182 males, 167 females) with age between 8 and 25 were evaluated. Four-stage system was used to evaluate the fusion degree of SOS, and Demirjian's eight stages of development for calcification for third molars. The Pearson correlation indicated a strong positive relationship between age and third molar calcification for both sexes (r = 0.850 for females, r = 0.839 for males, P age and SOS fusion for females (r = 0.814), but a moderate relationship was found for males (r = 0.599), P age determination formula using these scores was established.

  3. Incremental lines in root cementum of human teeth: An approach to their role in age estimation using polarizing microscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aggarwal Pooja

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Age estimation is an important factor in the identification of an individual in forensic science. The hard tissues of the human dentition are able to resist decay and degradation long after other tissues are lost. This resistance has made teeth useful indicators for age calculation. Recent research indicates that tooth cementum annulations (TCA may be used more reliably than any other morphological or histological traits of the adult skeleton for age estimation. The purpose of this study was to examine the correlation between age and the number of incremental lines in human dental cementum and to ascertain the best method of studying cementum with respect to different forms of microscopy. Thirty nonrestorable teeth were extracted from 20 people, and longitudinal ground section of each tooth was prepared. Photomicrographs of the area at the junction of apical and middle third of the root under light and polarized microscope were taken. The cementum was composed of multiple light and dark bands that were counted on the photomicrograph with the help of image analysis software and added to the average eruption time of individual tooth. The predicted age of the individual was thus obtained. Results showed a significant correlation between the predicted age and actual chronological age of the individual. These data indicate that quantitation of cementum annuli is a moderately reliable means for age estimation in humans and polarizing microscopy is a better means of visualizing incremental lines of cementum compared to light microscopy.

  4. Modeling Bone Surface Morphology: A Fully Quantitative Method for Age-at-Death Estimation Using the Pubic Symphysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slice, Dennis E; Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B

    2015-07-01

    The pubic symphysis is widely used in age estimation for the adult skeleton. Standard practice requires the visual comparison of surface morphology against criteria representing predefined phases and the estimation of case-specific age from an age range associated with the chosen phase. Known problems of method and observer error necessitate alternative tools to quantify age-related change in pubic morphology. This paper presents an objective, fully quantitative method for estimating age-at-death from the skeleton, which exploits a variance-based score of surface complexity computed from vertices obtained from a scanner sampling the pubic symphysis. For laser scans from 41 modern American male skeletons, this method produces results that are significantly associated with known age-at-death (RMSE = 17.15 years). Chronological age is predicted, therefore, equally well, if not, better, with this robust, objective, and fully quantitative method than with prevailing phase-aging systems. This method contributes to forensic casework by responding to medico-legal expectations for evidence standards.

  5. the potential of AGE MODE, an age-dependent model, to estimate usual intakes and prevalences of inadequate intakes in a population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waijers, Patricia M C M; Dekkers, Arnold L M; Boer, Jolanda M A; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Rossum, Caroline T M van

    2006-01-01

    Dietary intake data often stem from short-term measurements. However, for dietary assessment, generally the habitual intake distribution is of interest. Currently, habitual intake distributions are often estimated separately for subgroups of gender and age and do not take into account the variation

  6. Estimation of age-at-death for adult males using the acetabulum, applied to four Western European populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rissech, Carme; Estabrook, George F; Cunha, Eugenia; Malgosa, Assumpció

    2007-07-01

    Methods to estimate adult age from observations of skeletal elements are not very accurate and motivate the development of better methods. In this article, we test recently published method based on the acetabulum and Bayesian inference, developed using Coimbra collection (Portugal). In this study, to evaluate its utility in other populations, this methodology was applied to 394 specimens from four different documented Western European collections. Four strategies of analysis to estimate age were outlined: (a) each series separately; (b) on Lisbon collection, taken as a reference Coimbra collection; (c) on Barcelona collection, taken as a reference both Portuguese collections; and (d) on London collection taken as reference the three Iberian collections combined. Results indicate that estimates are accurate (83-100%). As might be expected, the least accurate estimates were obtained when the most distant collection was used as a reference. Observations of the fused acetabulum can be used to make accurate estimates of age for adults of any age, with less accurate estimates when a more distant reference collection is used.

  7. Application of the variability-size relationship to atmospheric aerosol studies: estimating aerosol lifetimes and ages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Williams

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol variability is examined as function of particle size for data collected over the Northern Indian Ocean in February 1999 as part of the INDOEX experiment. It was found that for particles believed to be of terrestrial or oceanic origin, the variability correlated with the average number concentration. For particles that are thought to be formed and grow in the atmosphere through coagulation and condensation an anticorrelation was observed, the minimum in variability coinciding with the maximum in the number concentration. Three altitude ranges were examined (0--1, 4--8 and 8--13 km and the minimum in variability was found to occur at lower particle sizes in the free troposphere (0.065 mm than in the boundary layer (0.165 mm. The observed variability has been compared to that generated by a numerical model in order to determine the relative importance of the physical processes. Modelled variability of 0.02 mm particles caused by nucleation was not observed in the measurements. A previously derived empirical relationship for aerosol residence time was compared with the measured variability as a function of bin size. The aerosol variability / residence time relationship was characterised by a coefficient (b at all altitudes and for both correlating and anticorrelating regimes. By combining the derived coefficient with the model predicted lifetime for 0.020 mm particles we estimated residence times and ages as a function of particle size and altitude. General agreement was found with previous estimates of aerosol residence time. In the upper atmosphere aerosols of 0.065 mm in size have residence times of approximately 1 month and can be transported on a hemispheric scale. The same size aerosol has a lifetime one order of magnitude less in the boundary layer and therefore will not be transported far from the source regions.

  8. Using Landsat TM and NFI data to estimate wood volume, tree biomass and stand age in Dalarna

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reese, Heather; Nilsson, Mats

    1999-10-01

    As part of the `Monitoring of forest ecosystems` project, within the MISTRA program Remote Sensing for the Environment (RESE), and also with funding from the County Administration Board of Dalarna, a demonstration project was undertaken to estimate forest stand parameters in Dalarna with the use of satellite data. Using two full scenes of Landsat Thematic Mapper data and sample plot data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, estimations of above ground tree biomass, age, total wood volume, and separate tree species volumes were made using the `k Nearest Neighbor` method. Accuracy assessment results at the single pixel level for total wood volume are consistent with results from previous kNN estimations, with an overall relative RMSE of 75% for the western scene, and 58% overall relative RMSE for the eastern scene. Validation data show a bias of the estimate toward the mean value of the estimation data. The pixel level estimates of above ground tree biomass and age had similar validation results to those for total wood volume. Biomass estimates had a 77% relative RMSE for the western scene, and 69% for the eastern scene. Age estimates had a relative RMSE of 60% in the western scene and 57% in the eastern scene. The results may suggest the need to incorporate a geographic limitation on the plots used in the estimation, and to further investigate the co-registration between the satellite and plot data. While pixel lever errors are high, an aggregation of the estimates to larger (compartment-sized) areas could decrease the error significantly. Previous similar studies have shown that an RMSE of 10% for total wood volume can be obtained for as small areas as 100 to 450 hectares. The estimates from this study will be evaluated for use by the County Administration Board of Dalarna to find areas of ecological interest and to assist in planning 14 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  9. Grid-based estimates of stellar ages in binary systems. SCEPtER: Stellar CharactEristics Pisa Estimation gRid

    CERN Document Server

    Valle, G; Moroni, P G Prada; Degl'Innocenti, S

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the performance of grid-based techniques in estimating the age of stars in detached eclipsing binary systems. We evaluate the precision of the estimates due to the uncertainty in the observational constraints, and the systematic bias caused by the uncertainty in convective core overshooting, element diffusion, mixing-length value, and initial helium content. We adopted the SCEPtER grid, which includes stars with mass in the range [0.8; 1.6] Msun and evolutionary stages from the ZAMS to the central hydrogen depletion. Age estimates have been obtained by a generalisation of the technique described in our previous work. We showed that the typical 1 sigma random error in age estimates - due to the uncertainty on the observational constraints - is about +- 7%, which is nearly independent of the masses of the two stars. However, such an error strongly depends on the evolutionary phase and becomes larger and asymmetric for stars near the ZAMS where it ranges from about +90% to -25%. The systematic bia...

  10. Challenging ICES age estimation protocols: lessons learned from the eastern Baltic cod stock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hüssy, Karin; Radtke, Krzysztof; Plikshs, Maris;

    2016-01-01

    . Since the implementation of an age-based assessment of EBC in the beginning of the 1970s, the assessment has been hampered by the quality of the age composition data, in recent years to a degree that age-based assessment is no longer used. The reason for the age reading problems is the low visual...

  11. Dental computed tomographic imaging as age estimation: morphological analysis of the third molar of a group of Turkish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantekin, Kenan; Sekerci, Ahmet Ercan; Buyuk, Suleyman Kutalmis

    2013-12-01

    Computed tomography (CT) is capable of providing accurate and measurable 3-dimensional images of the third molar. The aims of this study were to analyze the development of the mandibular third molar and its relation to chronological age and to create new reference data for a group of Turkish participants aged 9 to 25 years on the basis of cone-beam CT images. All data were obtained from the patients' records including medical, social, and dental anamnesis and cone-beam CT images of 752 patients. Linear regression analysis was performed to obtain regression formulas for dental age calculation with chronological age and to determine the coefficient of determination (r) for each sex. Statistical analysis showed a strong correlation between age and third-molar development for the males (r2 = 0.80) and the females (r2 = 0.78). Computed tomographic images are clinically useful for accurate and reliable estimation of dental ages of children and youth.

  12. Estimation of Gestational Age According to Crown-Rump Length in Nepalese Population: A Comparison with Previously Published Nomograms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Raj Joshi

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Background/Objective: This study was performed to construct an institution specific crown-rump length (CRL nomogram and to compare its ability to predict gestational age with previously published nomograms. "nPatients and Methods: A regression model was developed for estimation of gestational age using CRL measurements of 123 singleton fetuses in the Nepalese population. Measurements were obtained by placing the calipers of the ultrasound machine from the crown to the rump. The appropriateness of previously established CRL nomograms for predicting the gestational age was assessed in the Nepalese population to determine comparability between nomograms. "nResults: CRL corresponds to Robinson's nomogram up to 9 weeks of gestational age. There is a deficiency of 2mm at 10 weeks, 5 mm at 11 weeks and 8 mm at 12 weeks. "nConclusion: CRL measurements are used as a reliable method for estimation of the gestational age as well as a baseline for comparing gestational ages later. CRL corresponds to Robinson's nomogram up to 9 weeks gestational age. There is a deficiency of 2-8 mm from 10-12 weeks gestational age. Difference with the established nomograms may be due to ethnic differences of the fetal development. After 12 weeks, CRL measurement is unreliable due to flexion of the fetus.

  13. A test of a recently devised method of estimating skeletal age at death using features of the adult acetabulum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Estimation of age at death from adult skeletal remains is highly problematic, due in great part to interpopulation variability in skeletal age changes. Thorough testing of aging methods is therefore of key importance. A method recently devised by Calce (Am J Phys Anthropol 148 (2012): 11-23) for placing adult skeletons into three broad age at death classes (17-39, 40-64, 65+ years) on the basis of acetabular morphology is tested on a collection of 18-19th century AD skeletons (N = 185) of documented age at death from London. Results showed that 45% were correctly assigned to age class using this method. This compares with 81% reported by Calce on 20th century North American material. This indicates significant interpopulation differences in the relationship between the Calce acetabular variables and age, even between populations of European ancestry. Until the sources of this variation are better understood, caution should be used before applying this method to estimate age in unknown skeletons.

  14. Estimation of Gestational Age According to Crown-Rump Length in Nepalese Population: A Comparison with Previously Published Nomograms

    OpenAIRE

    B. Raj Joshi

    2009-01-01

    Background/Objective: This study was performed to construct an institution specific crown-rump length (CRL) nomogram and to compare its ability to predict gestational age with previously published nomograms. "nPatients and Methods: A regression model was developed for estimation of gestational age using CRL measurements of 123 singleton fetuses in the Nepalese population. Measurements were obtained by placing the calipers of the ultrasound machine from the crown to the rump. The appropri...

  15. Estimating the brain pathological age of Alzheimer’s disease patients from MR image data based on the separability distance criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yongming; Li, Fan; Wang, Pin; Zhu, Xueru; Liu, Shujun; Qiu, Mingguo; Zhang, Jingna; Zeng, Xiaoping

    2016-10-01

    Traditional age estimation methods are based on the same idea that uses the real age as the training label. However, these methods ignore that there is a deviation between the real age and the brain age due to accelerated brain aging. This paper considers this deviation and searches for it by maximizing the separability distance value rather than by minimizing the difference between the estimated brain age and the real age. Firstly, set the search range of the deviation as the deviation candidates according to prior knowledge. Secondly, use the support vector regression (SVR) as the age estimation model to minimize the difference between the estimated age and the real age plus deviation rather than the real age itself. Thirdly, design the fitness function based on the separability distance criterion. Fourthly, conduct age estimation on the validation dataset using the trained age estimation model, put the estimated age into the fitness function, and obtain the fitness value of the deviation candidate. Fifthly, repeat the iteration until all the deviation candidates are involved and get the optimal deviation with maximum fitness values. The real age plus the optimal deviation is taken as the brain pathological age. The experimental results showed that the separability was apparently improved. For normal control-Alzheimer’s disease (NC-AD), normal control-mild cognition impairment (NC-MCI), and MCI-AD, the average improvements were 0.178 (35.11%), 0.033 (14.47%), and 0.017 (39.53%), respectively. For NC-MCI-AD, the average improvement was 0.2287 (64.22%). The estimated brain pathological age could be not only more helpful to the classification of AD but also more precisely reflect accelerated brain aging. In conclusion, this paper offers a new method for brain age estimation that can distinguish different states of AD and can better reflect the extent of accelerated aging.

  16. Pulp/tooth ratio of mandibular first and second molars on panoramic radiographs: An aid for forensic age estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Palak H.; Venkatesh, Rashmi

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To determine and compare the accuracy of pulp/tooth ratio method in mandibular first and second molar teeth in forensic age estimation. Materials and Methods: A total 300 panoramic radiographs of the Gujarati population (187 males and 113 females) were studied. The measurements of Pulp Chamber Height (PCH) and Crown Root Trunk Height (CRTH) were performed on the mandibular first and second molar teeth. The acquired data was subjected to correlation and regression. Results: The pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratios (PCTHR) of both the first (r = −0.609) and second molars (r = −0.422) were significantly correlated with the age of the individual. Individual regression formulae were derived for both the teeth which were then used separately to calculate the age. The standard errors estimate (SEE) for the first and second molars were 8.84 years and 10.11 years, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between chronological and calculated age by both the teeth (P = 1.000). Conclusion: The mandibular first and second molar is a potential tool for age estimation in forensic dentistry. The pulp/tooth ratio of both the teeth is a useful method for forensic age prediction with reasonable accuracy in the Gujarati population.

  17. Comparative study of Greulich and Pyle Atlas and Maturos 4.0 program for age estimation in a Portuguese sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Cláudia; Ferreira, Marta; Alves, Filipe Caseiro; Cunha, Eugénia

    2011-10-10

    Age estimation of living individuals has become one of the big issues of forensic anthropology. The increase of children and adolescents with no valid proof of their chronological age is a legal concern to many countries, especially in situations of illegal immigration, sub adult delinquency and juvenile work. For this purpose, the use of radiological methods for evaluation of skeletal maturation is particularly useful. In this study we compare the two of the most common methods applied in age estimation by hand/wrist radiographs: the Radiographic Atlas of Skeletal Development of the Hand and Wrist made by Greulich and Pyle (GP), 1959,and the Sempé method developed for computer--Maturos 4.0 (MT) program. These methods were applied to a sample of 230 radiographs of the hand and wrist from Portuguese children and adolescents of known sex age and age, aged between 12 and 20 years, who performed medical examination at the University of Coimbra Hospitals during 2005. The methods achieved different performances, depending on the age group. Between 12 and 15 years the bone age with the MT program is closer to the chronological age, whereas in older ages the GP Atlas method is more trustworthy. At the ages with legal consequences in Portugal (16 and 18 years) the GP Atlas method is most accurate, namely to decide whether an individual is younger or older than 18 years. Around 16 years old, although there are doubts in relation to the accuracy of both methods, GP Atlas seems to perform better. PMID:21816552

  18. Using GC × GC-FID profiles to estimate the age of weathered gasoline samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzetti, Brianne M; Harynuk, James J

    2011-11-01

    Predicting the amount of time that a petroleum mixture has been exposed to weathering effects has applications in areas of environmental and other forensic investigations, such as aiding in determining the cause and intent of a fire. Historically, research on the evaporation rates of hydrocarbon mixtures has focused on forensic oil spill identification and predicting if a fresh sample could be weathered to give an observed composition in an aged sample. Relatively little attention has focused on approaching the problem from the other direction: estimating exposure time based on the observed composition of a weathered sample at a given time and assuming a prior composition. Here, we build upon our previous research into the weathering of model mixtures by extending our work to gasoline. Samples of gasoline with varying octane ratings and from several vendors were weathered under controlled conditions and their composition monitored over time by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC × GC). A variety of chemometric models were explored, including partial least squares (PLS), nonlinear PLS (PolyPLS) and locally weighted regression (LWR). A hierarchical application of multivariate techniques was able to predict the time for which a sample had been exposed to evaporative weathering. Partial least squares discriminant analysis could predict whether a sample was relatively fresh (weathered (>20 h exposure time). Subsequent regression models for these classes were evaluated for accuracy using the root mean square error of prediction. LWR was the most successful, whereby fresh and highly weathered samples were predicted to within 30 min and 5 h of exposure, respectively.

  19. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems-revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents a revision of the procedure and correlations presented earlier in NUREG/CR-4513, ANL-90/42 (June 1991) for predicting the change in mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water reactors at 280-330 degrees C (535-625 degrees F). The correlations presented in this report are based on an expanded data base and have been optimized with mechanical-property data on cast stainless steels aged up to ∼58,000 h at 290-350 degrees C (554-633 degrees F). The fracture toughness J-R curve, tensile stress, and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known material information. Mechanical properties of a specific cast stainless steel are estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. Embrittlement of cast stainless steels is characterized in terms of room-temperature Charpy-impact energy. Charpy-impact energy as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which are also determined from the chemical composition. The initial impact energy of the unaged steel is required for these estimations. Initial tensile flow stress is needed for estimating the flow stress of the aged material. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained by correlating room-temperature Charpy-impact energy with fracture toughness parameters. The values of JIC are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. A common open-quotes predicted lower-boundclose quotes J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, range of ferrite content, and temperature. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented

  20. A Meta-analysis of the Association of Estimated GFR, Albuminuria, Age, Race, and Sex With Acute Kidney Injury

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grams, Morgan E.; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Kimm, Heejin; Kovesdy, Csaba P.; Naimark, David; Oien, Cecilia; Smith, David H.; Coresh, Josef; Sarnak, Mark J.; Stengel, Benedicte; Tonelli, Marcello; de Zeeuw, Dick; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; van der Harst, Pim; Heerspink, Hiddo J.; Hillege, Hans L.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious global public health problem. We aimed to quantify the risk of AKI associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), albuminuria (albumin-creatinine ratio [ACR]), age, sex, and race (African American and white). Study Design: Collaborativ

  1. Learning Multiple Band-Pass Filters for Sleep Stage Estimation: Towards Care Support for Aged Persons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takadama, Keiki; Hirose, Kazuyuki; Matsushima, Hiroyasu; Hattori, Kiyohiko; Nakajima, Nobuo

    This paper proposes the sleep stage estimation method that can provide an accurate estimation for each person without connecting any devices to human's body. In particular, our method learns the appropriate multiple band-pass filters to extract the specific wave pattern of heartbeat, which is required to estimate the sleep stage. For an accurate estimation, this paper employs Learning Classifier System (LCS) as the data-mining techniques and extends it to estimate the sleep stage. Extensive experiments on five subjects in mixed health confirm the following implications: (1) the proposed method can provide more accurate sleep stage estimation than the conventional method, and (2) the sleep stage estimation calculated by the proposed method is robust regardless of the physical condition of the subject.

  2. Effects of age, weight, and fat slaughter end points on estimates of breed and retained heterosis effects for carcass traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ríos-Utrera, A; Cundiff, L V; Gregory, K E; Koch, R M; Dikeman, M E; Koohmaraie, M; Van Vleck, L D

    2006-01-01

    The influence of different levels of adjusted fat thickness (AFT) and HCW slaughter end points (covariates) on estimates of breed and retained heterosis effects was studied for 14 carcass traits from serially slaughtered purebred and composite steers from the US Meat Animal Research Center (MARC). Contrasts among breed solutions were estimated at 0.7, 1.1, and 1.5 cm of AFT, and at 295.1, 340.5, and 385.9 kg of HCW. For constant slaughter age, contrasts were adjusted to the overall mean (432.5 d). Breed effects for Red Poll, Hereford, Limousin, Braunvieh, Pinzgauer, Gelbvieh, Simmental, Charolais, MARC I, MARC II, and MARC III were estimated as deviations from Angus. In addition, purebreds were pooled into 3 groups based on lean-to-fat ratio, and then differences were estimated among groups. Retention of combined individual and maternal heterosis was estimated for each composite. Mean retained heterosis for the 3 composites also was estimated. Breed rankings and expression of heterosis varied within and among end points. For example, Charolais had greater (P or = 0.05) at a constant age. The MARC III composite produced 9.7 kg more (P < 0.01) fat than Angus at AFT of 0.7 cm, but 7.9 kg less (P < 0.05) at AFT of 1.5 cm. For MARC III, the estimate of retained heterosis for HCW was significant (P < 0.05) at the lowest level of AFT, but at the intermediate and greatest levels estimates were nil. The pattern was the same for MARC I and MARC III for LM area. Adjustment for age resulted in near zero estimates of retained heterosis for AFT, and similarly, adjustment for HCW resulted in nil estimates of retained heterosis for LM area. For actual retail product as a percentage of HCW, the estimate of retained heterosis for MARC III was negative (-1.27%; P < 0.05) at 0.7 cm but was significantly positive (2.55%; P < 0.05) at 1.5 cm of AFT. Furthermore, for MARC III, estimates of heterosis for some traits (fat as a percentage of HCW as another example) also doubled in magnitude

  3. Effects of age, weight, and fat slaughter end points on estimates of breed and retained heterosis effects for carcass traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ríos-Utrera, A; Cundiff, L V; Gregory, K E; Koch, R M; Dikeman, M E; Koohmaraie, M; Van Vleck, L D

    2006-01-01

    The influence of different levels of adjusted fat thickness (AFT) and HCW slaughter end points (covariates) on estimates of breed and retained heterosis effects was studied for 14 carcass traits from serially slaughtered purebred and composite steers from the US Meat Animal Research Center (MARC). Contrasts among breed solutions were estimated at 0.7, 1.1, and 1.5 cm of AFT, and at 295.1, 340.5, and 385.9 kg of HCW. For constant slaughter age, contrasts were adjusted to the overall mean (432.5 d). Breed effects for Red Poll, Hereford, Limousin, Braunvieh, Pinzgauer, Gelbvieh, Simmental, Charolais, MARC I, MARC II, and MARC III were estimated as deviations from Angus. In addition, purebreds were pooled into 3 groups based on lean-to-fat ratio, and then differences were estimated among groups. Retention of combined individual and maternal heterosis was estimated for each composite. Mean retained heterosis for the 3 composites also was estimated. Breed rankings and expression of heterosis varied within and among end points. For example, Charolais had greater (P or = 0.05) at a constant age. The MARC III composite produced 9.7 kg more (P < 0.01) fat than Angus at AFT of 0.7 cm, but 7.9 kg less (P < 0.05) at AFT of 1.5 cm. For MARC III, the estimate of retained heterosis for HCW was significant (P < 0.05) at the lowest level of AFT, but at the intermediate and greatest levels estimates were nil. The pattern was the same for MARC I and MARC III for LM area. Adjustment for age resulted in near zero estimates of retained heterosis for AFT, and similarly, adjustment for HCW resulted in nil estimates of retained heterosis for LM area. For actual retail product as a percentage of HCW, the estimate of retained heterosis for MARC III was negative (-1.27%; P < 0.05) at 0.7 cm but was significantly positive (2.55%; P < 0.05) at 1.5 cm of AFT. Furthermore, for MARC III, estimates of heterosis for some traits (fat as a percentage of HCW as another example) also doubled in magnitude

  4. The Solar Twin Planet Search III. The [Y/Mg] clock: estimating stellar ages of solar-type stars

    CERN Document Server

    Maia, M Tucci; Meléndez, J; Bedell, M; Bean, J L; Asplund, M

    2016-01-01

    Solar twins are stars with similar stellar (surface) parameters to the Sun that can have a wide range of ages. This provide an opportunity to analyze the variation of their chemical abundances with age. Nissen (2015) recently suggested that the abundances of the s-process element Y and the $\\alpha$-element Mg could be used to estimate stellar ages. This paper aims to determine with high precision the Y, Mg, and Fe abundances for a sample of 88 solar twins that span a broad age range ($0.3-10.0$\\,Gyr) and investigate their use for estimating ages. We obtained high-quality Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle (MIKE) spectra and determined Y and Mg abundances using equivalent widths and a line-by-line differential method within a 1D LTE framework. Stellar parameters and iron abundances were measured in Paper I of this series for all stars, but a few (three) required a small revision. The [Y/Mg] ratio shows a strong correlation with age. It has a slope of -0.041$\\pm$0.001 dex/Gyr and a significance of 41 $\\sigma$. Th...

  5. Evaluation of age estimation in forensic medicine by examination of medial clavicular ossification from thin-slice computed tomography images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurses, Murat Serdar; Inanir, Nursel Turkmen; Gokalp, Gokhan; Fedakar, Recep; Tobcu, Eren; Ocakoglu, Gokhan

    2016-09-01

    Forensic age estimation, a recent topic of research in forensic medicine, is of primary importance to criminal and civil law. Previous studies indicate that the observation of medial clavicular ossification allows for age discrimination along the completed 18th and 21st years of life. Experts recommend that the Schmeling and Kellinghaus methods be used together. In this study, we used these staging methods to retrospectively analyze 725 case studies (385 males, 340 females) of thin-slice computed tomography (CT) images, ranging from 0.6 to 1 mm in thickness, from individuals aged 10 to 35 years. Stage 1 was found at 18 years of age maximum for males, whereas it was found at 17 years of age for females. Stage 2a was found at 18 years of age maximum for both genders. Stage 3c was initially observed at 18 years for both genders. Stage 4 was initially found at 21 years for males and 20 years for females. Stage 5 was initially observed at 25 years for both genders. Of note, stage 3c was found close to 19 years of age for both genders (18.92 years for male, 18.99 years for female), and it may be employed to differentiate along the age majority cutoff. The data obtained from our study were consistent with previous studies. We believe that such a comprehensive database will greatly contribute to future studies focusing on medial clavicular ossification based on thin-slice CT. Moreover, we also recommend that if medial clavicular ossification based on CT is to be examined for forensic age estimation, both methods should be employed together. PMID:27352083

  6. Aspartic acid racemization in dentin of the third molar for age estimation of the Chaoshan population in South China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shisheng; Lv, Yanyi; Wang, Dian; Yu, Xiaojun

    2016-09-01

    Aspartic acid racemization in teeth has been increasingly used to estimate chronological age with a considerably high accuracy in forensic practice. The Chaoshan population in South China is relatively isolated in geography, and has specific lifestyle and dietary inhibits. It is still unknown whether this method is suitable for this population. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between chronological age and the d/l aspartic acid ratio in dentin in the third molar tooth of the Chaoshan population. Fifty-eight non-carious third molar teeth (31 mandibles and 27 maxillae), from 58 living individuals of known age (24 males and 34 females), were retrieved. Dentin was extracted from these teeth. The d- and l-aspartic acids in dentins were separated and detected by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Linear regression was performed between the d/l aspartic acid ratio of dentins and chronological age. Results showed that the correlation coefficient (r) was 0.969, and the mean absolute error (MAE) was 2.19 years, its standard deviation (SD) was ±1.53 years, indicating excellent correlation. There was no significant difference in racemization rates of dentin between sexes (P=0.113, F=2.6), or between mandibles and maxillae (P=0.964, F=0.000). Results indicate that the ratio of the d and l forms of aspartic acid of dentins, in the third molar, is closely correlated with chronological age, special lifestyle do no obviously affect the accuracy of the age estimations by aspartic acid racemization of the dentin in the third molar and that aspartic acid racemization in the third molar dentin can be used as an accurate method to estimate chronological age in the Chaoshan population in South China.

  7. Interferometric processing of C-band SAR data for the improvement of stand age estimation in rubber plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisasongko, Bambang H.; Paull, David J.; Panuju, Dyah R.

    2015-01-01

    Rubber ranks the second largest plantation in Indonesia after oil palm. While oil palm plantations have been exploited mainly by large companies, many rubber plantations are still managed by peasant farmers who maintain its biodiversity. Due to its broad and scattered location, monitoring tropical rubber plantation is a crucial application of active remote sensing. In this paper, the backscatter coefficient of Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) is compared to interferometric coherence to study the relationship between stand age and SAR parameters. It is shown that VV polarized C-band SAR achieves its saturation level in plantations aged about 5-10 years. Extension of saturation level can be achieved by processing an interferometric pair of ASAR data, which results in interferometric coherence. In this paper, coherence can take up to 20 years stand age to achieve prior to saturation. Since stand age is highly related to biomass, this finding argues that the biomass can be best estimated using coherence.

  8. Raman spectroscopy of human skin: looking for a quantitative algorithm to reliably estimate human age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzotti, Giuseppe; Boffelli, Marco; Miyamori, Daisuke; Uemura, Takeshi; Marunaka, Yoshinori; Zhu, Wenliang; Ikegaya, Hiroshi

    2015-06-01

    The possibility of examining soft tissues by Raman spectroscopy is challenged in an attempt to probe human age for the changes in biochemical composition of skin that accompany aging. We present a proof-of-concept report for explicating the biophysical links between vibrational characteristics and the specific compositional and chemical changes associated with aging. The actual existence of such links is then phenomenologically proved. In an attempt to foster the basics for a quantitative use of Raman spectroscopy in assessing aging from human skin samples, a precise spectral deconvolution is performed as a function of donors' ages on five cadaveric samples, which emphasizes the physical significance and the morphological modifications of the Raman bands. The outputs suggest the presence of spectral markers for age identification from skin samples. Some of them appeared as authentic "biological clocks" for the apparent exactness with which they are related to age. Our spectroscopic approach yields clear compositional information of protein folding and crystallization of lipid structures, which can lead to a precise identification of age from infants to adults. Once statistically validated, these parameters might be used to link vibrational aspects at the molecular scale for practical forensic purposes.

  9. Adult Age Differences in Frequency Estimations of Happy and Angry Faces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikitin, Jana; Freund, Alexandra M.

    2015-01-01

    With increasing age, the ratio of gains to losses becomes more negative, which is reflected in expectations that positive events occur with a high likelihood in young adulthood, whereas negative events occur with a high likelihood in old age. Little is known about expectations of social events. Given that younger adults are motivated to establish…

  10. Age estimation of blood stains by hemoglobin derivative determination using reflectance spectroscopy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.H. Bremmer; A. Nadort; T.G. van Leeuwen; M.J.C. van Gemert; M.C.G. Aalders

    2011-01-01

    Blood stains can be crucial in reconstructing crime events. However, no reliable methods are currently available to establish the age of a blood stain on the crime scene. We show that determining the fractions of three hemoglobin derivatives in a blood stain at various ages enables relating these ti

  11. Age-distribution estimation for karst groundwater: Issues of parameterization and complexity in inverse modeling by convolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, A.J.; Putnam, L.D.

    2009-01-01

    Convolution modeling is useful for investigating the temporal distribution of groundwater age based on environmental tracers. The framework of a quasi-transient convolution model that is applicable to two-domain flow in karst aquifers is presented. The model was designed to provide an acceptable level of statistical confidence in parameter estimates when only chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and tritium (3H) data are available. We show how inverse modeling and uncertainty assessment can be used to constrain model parameterization to a level warranted by available data while allowing major aspects of the flow system to be examined. As an example, the model was applied to water from a pumped well open to the Madison aquifer in central USA with input functions of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and 3H, and was calibrated to several samples collected during a 16-year period. A bimodal age distribution was modeled to represent quick and slow flow less than 50 years old. The effects of pumping and hydraulic head on the relative volumetric fractions of these domains were found to be influential factors for transient flow. Quick flow and slow flow were estimated to be distributed mainly within the age ranges of 0-2 and 26-41 years, respectively. The fraction of long-term flow (>50 years) was estimated but was not dateable. The different tracers had different degrees of influence on parameter estimation and uncertainty assessments, where 3H was the most critical, and CFC-113 was least influential.

  12. Estimated aortic stiffness is independently associated with cardiac baroreflex sensitivity in humans: role of ageing and habitual endurance exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, G L; Harris, S A; Seals, D R; Casey, D P; Barlow, P B; Stauss, H M

    2016-09-01

    We hypothesised that differences in cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) would be independently associated with aortic stiffness and augmentation index (AI), clinical biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk, among young sedentary and middle-aged/older sedentary and endurance-trained adults. A total of 36 healthy middle-aged/older (age 55-76 years, n=22 sedentary and n=14 endurance-trained) and 5 young sedentary (age 18-31 years) adults were included in a cross-sectional study. A subset of the middle-aged/older sedentary adults (n=12) completed an 8-week-aerobic exercise intervention. Invasive brachial artery blood pressure waveforms were used to compute spontaneous cardiac BRS (via sequence technique), estimated aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) and AI (AI, via brachial-aortic transfer function and wave separation analysis). In the cross-sectional study, cardiac BRS was 71% lower in older compared with young sedentary adults (P<0.05), but only 40% lower in older adults who performed habitual endurance exercise (P=0.03). In a regression model that included age, sex, resting heart rate, mean arterial pressure (MAP), body mass index and maximal exercise oxygen uptake, estimated aortic PWV (β±s.e.=-5.76±2.01, P=0.01) was the strongest predictor of BRS (model R(2)=0.59, P<0.001). The 8-week-exercise intervention improved BRS by 38% (P=0.04) and this change in BRS was associated with improved aortic PWV (r=-0.65, P=0.044, adjusted for changes in MAP). Age- and endurance-exercise-related differences in cardiac BRS are independently associated with corresponding alterations in aortic PWV among healthy adults, consistent with a mechanistic link between variations in the sensitivity of the baroreflex and aortic stiffness with age and exercise. PMID:26911535

  13. Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia L Finkelstein

    Full Text Available Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, or =15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 ( or =15 y. Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control.

  14. Estimation of stature from arm span, arm length and tibial length among Bengalee children aged 3-11 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Dorjee

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Estimation of human stature has significant bearings on assessment of growth, nutritional status and personal identification. Often the prediction of stature from bone remains or body parts of children is complicated by the ongoing growth. Despite these disadvantages, a situation may arise where estimation of a child’s stature becomes important. In such a situation equations derived for adults cannot be applicable. Materials and Methods: The present cross-sectional study was conducted among 240 children (boys: 116; girls: 124 aged between 3 to 11 years and belonging to the Bengali Hindu Caste Population from Naxalbari, District Darjeeling, West Bengal, India. Standard procedures were followed to record stature, arm span, arm length and tibial length. Intra- and inter- observer technical errors of the measurement (TEM were calculated. One way analysis of variance (ANOVA, correlation, linear regression and stepwise regression were used to analyze the data. Result: The boys had higher mean age, mean stature, mean arm span, mean arm length and tibial length than girls. However, using ANOVA, the sex difference were not significant (p>0.05. Stature was observed to be positively and significantly correlated with all the anthropometric variables among both sexes. When stepwise regression was used, it was observed that the correlation coefficient (R and the coefficient of determination (R2 increased with inclusion of arm length and tibial length with arm span as the predictor. The addition of age as a variable further increased the predictive accuracy of the model. Predictive accuracies of the equations were higher among girls than boys. Conclusion: The present study has observed strong associations of stature with age, arm span, arm length and tibia length. The strength of prediction in general increased with the increasing number of parameters and from using linear to stepwise multiple regressions. Addition of age as a variable influenced

  15. The chronology of second molar development in Brazilians and its application to forensic age estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study investigated the possible correlation between the mineralization of the second molars and the chronological age of a sample population of the state of Paraiba, Brazil. One thousand eight hundred fifty-four digitized panoramic images using a scanner of a private dental radiology service were obtained in six months. Of these, 457 were selected from patients aged 4.6 to 16 years who met certain criteria. The images were assessed twice by a radiologist with 5 years experience. A minimum interval of 30 days between the evaluations of the same patient was established. To analyze the relationship between chronological age, calcification level proposed by Demirjian et al in 1973, gender, and tooth, a multiple linear regression model was adjusted, taking age as the response variable (p<0.05). The gender and calcification level were significantly correlated with the age of the patients (p<0.05). There was a significant difference between the average age of the patients' upper teeth compared to the lower ones in both genders (p<0.05). The dental development occurred earlier in female individuals than in male ones, and there was no significant difference between the right and left second permanent molars. It was observed that ethnic variables are related to certain parameters of age and sex identification in the Brazilian population, providing important information for forensic evaluations.

  16. The chronology of second molar development in Brazilians and its application to forensic age estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Manuella; Santos Carneiro; Beltraeo, Rejane Targino; Beltraeo, Ricardo Villar [School of Dentistry, Federal University of Paraiba, Joaeo Pessoa (Brazil); Pontual, Andrea dos Anjos [Pernambuco Dental School, Pernambuco University-UPE, Camaragibe (Brazil); Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos [Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife (Brazil)

    2013-03-15

    This study investigated the possible correlation between the mineralization of the second molars and the chronological age of a sample population of the state of Paraiba, Brazil. One thousand eight hundred fifty-four digitized panoramic images using a scanner of a private dental radiology service were obtained in six months. Of these, 457 were selected from patients aged 4.6 to 16 years who met certain criteria. The images were assessed twice by a radiologist with 5 years experience. A minimum interval of 30 days between the evaluations of the same patient was established. To analyze the relationship between chronological age, calcification level proposed by Demirjian et al in 1973, gender, and tooth, a multiple linear regression model was adjusted, taking age as the response variable (p<0.05). The gender and calcification level were significantly correlated with the age of the patients (p<0.05). There was a significant difference between the average age of the patients' upper teeth compared to the lower ones in both genders (p<0.05). The dental development occurred earlier in female individuals than in male ones, and there was no significant difference between the right and left second permanent molars. It was observed that ethnic variables are related to certain parameters of age and sex identification in the Brazilian population, providing important information for forensic evaluations.

  17. Validation of an Algorithm to Estimate Gestational Age in Electronic Health Plan Databases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qian; Andrade, Susan E.; Cooper, William O.; Davis, Robert L.; Dublin, Sascha; Hammad, Tarek A.; Pawloski, Pamala A.; Pinheiro, Simone P.; Raebel, Marsha A.; Scott, Pamela E.; Smith, David H.; Dashevsky, Inna; Haffenreffer, Katie; Johnson, Karin E.; Toh, Sengwee

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To validate an algorithm that uses delivery date and diagnosis codes to define gestational age at birth in electronic health plan databases. Methods Using data from 225,384 live born deliveries among women aged 15–45 years in 2001–2007 within 8 of the 11 health plans participating in the Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program, we compared 1) the algorithm-derived gestational age versus the “gold-standard” gestational age obtained from the infant birth certificate files; and 2) the prenatal exposure status of two antidepressants (fluoxetine and sertraline) and two antibiotics (amoxicillin and azithromycin) as determined by the algorithm-derived versus the gold-standard gestational age. Results The mean algorithm-derived gestational age at birth was lower than the mean obtained from the birth certificate files among singleton deliveries (267.9 versus 273.5 days) but not among multiple-gestation deliveries (253.9 versus 252.6 days). The algorithm-derived prenatal exposure to the antidepressants had a sensitivity and a positive predictive value (PPV) of ≥95%, and a specificity and a negative predictive value (NPV) of almost 100%. Sensitivity and PPV were both ≥90%, and specificity and NPV were both >99% for the antibiotics. Conclusions A gestational age algorithm based upon electronic health plan data correctly classified medication exposure status in most live born deliveries, but misclassification may be higher for drugs typically used for short durations. PMID:23335117

  18. Man Versus Machine: Eye Estimates in the Age of Digital Imaging

    CERN Document Server

    Osborn, Wayne

    2013-01-01

    Astronomical observing has been greatly simplified by the development and implementation of digital imaging techniques and remote observing. Aperture photometry of CCD data permits photometric measurements to be made routinely with uncertainties of a few hundredths of a magnitude or better. The question of whether there is still a place in modern observational astronomy for simple eye estimates of brightness is considered. Examples of recent uses of eye estimates are presented. Suggestions for when eye estimates should be avoided and when they are still worthwhile are offered. The reactions to these suggestions by the conference audience are summarized.

  19. Geostatistical model-based estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence among individuals aged = 20 years in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou;

    2011-01-01

    ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis...

  20. Chronological age estimation based on third molar development in a Portuguese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldas, Inês Morais; Júlio, Paula; Simões, Ricardo Jorge; Matos, Eduarda; Afonso, Américo; Magalhães, Teresa

    2011-03-01

    Third molar development was assessed using a sample of 1,131 orthopantomograms from a Portuguese population. The methodology applied was the eight stages (A-H) method described by Demirjian et al. The final sample was made of 739 orthopantomograms, 387 (52.5%) of which belonging to females; age ranged between 6.1 and 22.5 years old (mean age = 14.49, S.D. = 4.37). For each developmental stage, mean age, standard deviation, and minimal and maximal age was assessed; evaluation of the rate formation of each tooth, according to sex, was calculated and data distribution expressed in percentiles for each stage; the probability of an individual being 16 was also evaluated. The relationship between tooth development and chronological age had a statistical significance for all teeth and both sexes (p thesis that each population need specific data.

  1. Exploiting quality and texture features to estimate age and gender from fingerprints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marasco, Emanuela; Lugini, Luca; Cukic, Bojan

    2014-05-01

    Age and gender of an individual, when available, can contribute to identification decisions provided by primary biometrics and help improve matching performance. In this paper, we propose a system which automatically infers age and gender from the fingerprint image. Current approaches for predicting age and gender generally exploit features such as ridge count, and white lines count that are manually extracted. Existing automated approaches have significant limitations in accuracy especially when dealing with data pertaining to elderly females. The model proposed in this paper exploits image quality features synthesized from 40 different frequency bands, and image texture properties captured using the Local Binary Pattern (LBP) and the Local Phase Quantization (LPQ) operators. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach using fingerprint images collected from 500 users with an optical sensor. The approach achieves prediction accuracy of 89.1% for age and 88.7% for gender.

  2. Chronological age estimation of third molar mineralization of Han in southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Dong Lin; Wu, Zhi Ling; Cui, Min Yi

    2010-03-01

    In order to study the chronology of age of third molar mineralization of Han in southern China, Demirjian staging method was used to determine the stage of four third molars (18, 28, 38, 48) mineralization in 3,100 Han in southern China aged 4.1-26.9 years based on radiological evidence from digital orthopantomograms. The mean age of the 3,100 patients was 15.96 +/- 4.73 years, including 1,200 male (mean age, 15.32 +/- 4.62) and 1,900 female (mean age, 16.35 +/- 4.76). Results show that there was no significant difference in mineralization between 18 and 28 and 38 and 48 of male or female. However, significant difference was observed between 28 and 38 of female at stage C; 28 was 0.25 years earlier than 38. In male, at stage G, 38 was 0.61 years earlier than 28, and 48 was 0.62 years earlier than 18. At stages D, E, F, G, and H, male 48 was 0.34, 0.66, 0.72, 1.34, and 0.76 years earlier than that of female, respectively. At stages A, D, E, F, G, and H, male 38 was 0.73, 0.26, 0.56, 0.91, 1.29, and 0.70 years earlier than that of female, respectively. At stages B, E, F, G, and H, the mineralization mean age of male 18 was 0.54, 0.50, 0.76, 0.92, and 0.58 years earlier than that of female, respectively. At stages E, F, G, and H, the mineralization mean age of male 28 was 0.51, 0.76, 0.92, and 0.49 years earlier than that of female, respectively. After reviewing the literature, the chronological mineralization age of 48, at stages D to G, of Han in southern China was 1 to 4.6 years earlier than that of Japanese and 1 to 3 years earlier than that of German. The mean age at stage H of 48 of Han in southern China was similar to Turkish, Black African, Japanese, and German, but was later than Spanish. Finally, the conclusions are: (1) in the same gender group of Han in southern China, the mineralization ages between two sides in upper or lower jaw are very similar, and (2) the chronology mean age and complete time of third molar mineralization of male were earlier than

  3. The variability of lower third molar development in Northeast Malaysian population with application to age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johan, N A; Khamis, M F; Abdul Jamal, N Sk; Ahmad, B; Mahanani, E S

    2012-07-01

    This study aimed to assess the variability of the lower third molar (tooth 38 and 48) development in Northeast Malaysian population with respect to the side of dentition, to generate age prediction models and to compare the outcome with other studies. A total of 1080 orthopantomograms of Northeast Malaysian population aged between 14 and 25 years (540 males and 540 females) from the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia's archive which met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were selected and the maturity stages of tooth 38 and 48 were scored using Demirjian's stages (A-H). The findings showed a wide variation of the development of lower third molars in the Northeast Malaysian population. The roots developed earlier in males than in females. The development of the dentition on opposite sides of the mandible was synchronously in females and males. A multiple regression analysis shows that 71.1% of variance in age was explained by sex and developmental stage of tooth 48. An age prediction model was generated from the regression analysis: [Age = 7.117 + 1.907*(stage of tooth 48) - 0.432*(sex)] with mean prediction errors between -0.17 to 3.14 years. The obtained data in the current study are useful for references and determining age of unidentified human remains for identification investigation.

  4. Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in a Texas Hispanic population: a comparison study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasper, Kathleen A; Austin, Dana; Kvanli, Alan H; Rios, Tara R; Senn, David R

    2009-05-01

    Evaluating third molars from 950 Hispanic individuals aged 12-22 years using Demirjian's schematic for crown and root formation found that Hispanic third molar development was 8-18 months faster than American Caucasians as reported by Mincer, Harris and Berryman in 1993. This represents a statistically significant increase. Earlier development was more apparent in the later stages F through H. Hispanic males reach developmental stages faster than Hispanic females and maxillary third molars reach developmental stages faster than mandibular third molars in both sexes. The earliest age observed for stages B-H (e.g., Stage H first observed at age 13.92 years in females) and the oldest age observed for Stages B-G were developed to facilitate age prediction of unknown individuals. Prediction tables for minimum and maximum age for an observed stage (e.g., if a female maxillary third molar is stage F it means she is older than 13 years) for each sex-jaw group were calculated.

  5. The Solar Twin Planet Search. III. The [Y/Mg] clock: estimating stellar ages of solar-type stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucci Maia, M.; Ramírez, I.; Meléndez, J.; Bedell, M.; Bean, J. L.; Asplund, M.

    2016-05-01

    Context. Solar twins are stars with similar stellar (surface) parameters to the Sun that can have a wide range of ages. This provides an opportunity to analyze the variation of their chemical abundances with age. Nissen (2015, A&A, 579, A52) recently suggested that the abundances of the s-process element Y and the α-element Mg could be used to estimate stellar ages. Aims: This paper aims to determine with high precision the Y, Mg, and Fe abundances for a sample of 88 solar twins that span a broad age range (0.3-10.0 Gyr) and investigate their use for estimating ages. Methods: We obtained high-quality Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle (MIKE) spectra and determined Y and Mg abundances using equivalent widths and a line-by-line differential method within a 1D LTE framework. Stellar parameters and iron abundances were measured in Paper I of this series for all stars, but a few (three) required a small revision. Results: The [Y/Mg] ratio shows a strong correlation with age. It has a slope of -0.041 ± 0.001 dex/Gyr and a significance of 41σ. This is in excellent agreement with the relation first proposed by Nissen (2015). We found some outliers that turned out to be binaries where mass transfer may have enhanced the yttrium abundance. Given a precise measurement of [Y/Mg] with typical error of 0.02 dex in solar twins, our formula can be used to determine a stellar age with ~0.8 Gyr precision in the 0 to 10 Gyr range. Based on observations obtained at the Clay Magellan Telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile and at the 3.6 m Telescope at the La Silla ESO Observatory, Chile (program ID 188.C-0265).

  6. Age estimation by facial image: a survey%人脸图像的年龄估计技术研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王先梅; 梁玲燕; 王志良; 胡四泉

    2012-01-01

    Age information, as an important personal trait, has great potential in safety surveillance, human-computer interaction, multimedia applications, and face recognition. As an emerging biometric information identification technology, face-image based age estimation has gained great attention resently and has become one of the important research topics in machine learning and computer vision. In this paper, we survey most existing commonly used methods in face-image based age estimation, especially focusing on the extraction of age features and classification. Then, we also introduce some face aging databases and evaluation protocols, which are widely used at present. Based on these databases and evaluation methods, a comparison of the performances of several age estimation systems is presented. Finally, the challenges and promising directions of age estimation techniques are discussed.%年龄信息作为人体的一种重要生物特征,在安全监控、人机交互、视频检索等领域有着巨大的应用潜力,并且是人脸识别技术的主要瓶颈问题之一.基于人脸图像的年龄估计技术作为一种新兴的生物特征识别技术,目前已经成为计算机视觉、人机交互等领域的一个重要研究课题.为此对国内外近几年来在年龄估计技术方面的发展情况进行了综述,主要包括年龄特征提取与年龄分类模式两大部分.同时对常用的年龄数据库、性能评价指标进行了总结,并在此基础上对当前的一些年龄估计系统的性能进行了对比.最后,对基于人脸图像的年龄估计技术所面临的挑战以及可能的发展方向进行了讨论.

  7. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models.

  8. Estimating the age of Calliphora vicina eggs (Diptera: Calliphoridae): determination of embryonic morphological landmarks and preservation of egg samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Vega, Daniel; Hall, Martin J R

    2016-05-01

    Blow fly eggs may sometimes be the only entomological evidence recovered in a forensic case, especially in cooler weather when hatching might take several days: hence, a method for estimating their age is greatly needed. However, developmental data on blow fly eggs are mainly limited to records of the time to larval hatching. The current paper describes the morphological changes occurring during embryogenesis of the blow fly Calliphora vicina Robineau-Desvoidy and their timing in relation to temperature, in order to determine those characters which can be used for simple egg age estimation using light microscopy. At 7.3 and 25 °C, 15 easily visualised morphological landmarks were determined in C. vicina living embryos, allowing for their age estimation with a resolution of 10-20% of total egg developmental time. The observed age intervals were compared to the embryonic stages described for the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster Meigen, which are used as reference data in multiple developmental studies. Moreover, current guidelines for preservation of egg samples, which recommend the placement of living eggs directly into 80% ethanol, were tested against the hot water killing (HWK) method prior to preservation in 80% ethanol, recommended for larval and pupal specimens. Direct placement of eggs into 80% ethanol caused marked decomposition of samples, and no morphological landmarks were discernible. On the other hand, HWK fixation prior to preservation in 80% ethanol enabled visualisation of 11 of the 15 age-specific morphological landmarks that were discernible in living embryos. Therefore, HWK fixation prior to preservation in 80% ethanol is recommended for egg samples, thus unifying the protocols for collecting entomological evidence.

  9. The transverse diameter of the chest on routine radiographs reliably estimates gestational age and weight in premature infants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, Kelly R. [University of Minnesota, Department of Radiology, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Zhang, Lei [University of Minnesota, Biostatistical Design and Analysis Center, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Seidel, Frank G. [Lucile Packard Children' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2015-08-15

    Prior to digital radiography it was possible for a radiologist to easily estimate the size of a patient on an analog film. Because variable magnification may be applied at the time of processing an image, it is now more difficult to visually estimate an infant's size on the monitor. Since gestational age and weight significantly impact the differential diagnosis of neonatal diseases and determine the expected size of kidneys or appearance of the brain by MRI or US, this information is useful to a pediatric radiologist. Although this information may be present in the electronic medical record, it is frequently not readily available to the pediatric radiologist at the time of image interpretation. To determine if there was a correlation between gestational age and weight of a premature infant with their transverse chest diameter (rib to rib) on admission chest radiographs. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, which waived informed consent. The maximum transverse chest diameter outer rib to outer rib was measured on admission portable chest radiographs of 464 patients admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) during the 2010 calendar year. Regression analysis was used to investigate the association between chest diameter and gestational age/birth weight. Quadratic term of chest diameter was used in the regression model. Chest diameter was statistically significantly associated with both gestational age (P < 0.0001) and birth weight (P < 0.0001). An infant's gestational age and birth weight can be reliably estimated by comparing a simple measurement of the transverse chest diameter on digital chest radiograph with the tables and graphs in our study. (orig.)

  10. The transverse diameter of the chest on routine radiographs reliably estimates gestational age and weight in premature infants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prior to digital radiography it was possible for a radiologist to easily estimate the size of a patient on an analog film. Because variable magnification may be applied at the time of processing an image, it is now more difficult to visually estimate an infant's size on the monitor. Since gestational age and weight significantly impact the differential diagnosis of neonatal diseases and determine the expected size of kidneys or appearance of the brain by MRI or US, this information is useful to a pediatric radiologist. Although this information may be present in the electronic medical record, it is frequently not readily available to the pediatric radiologist at the time of image interpretation. To determine if there was a correlation between gestational age and weight of a premature infant with their transverse chest diameter (rib to rib) on admission chest radiographs. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, which waived informed consent. The maximum transverse chest diameter outer rib to outer rib was measured on admission portable chest radiographs of 464 patients admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) during the 2010 calendar year. Regression analysis was used to investigate the association between chest diameter and gestational age/birth weight. Quadratic term of chest diameter was used in the regression model. Chest diameter was statistically significantly associated with both gestational age (P < 0.0001) and birth weight (P < 0.0001). An infant's gestational age and birth weight can be reliably estimated by comparing a simple measurement of the transverse chest diameter on digital chest radiograph with the tables and graphs in our study. (orig.)

  11. An HST/WFPC2 survey of bright young clusters in M31. IV. Ages and mass estimates

    CERN Document Server

    Perina, S; Barmby, P; Beasley, M A; Bellazzini, M; Brodie, J P; Federici, L; Pecci, F Fusi; Galleti, S; Hodge, P W; Huchra, J P; Kissler-Patig, M; Puzia, T H; Strader, J

    2009-01-01

    {Aims.} We present the main results of an imaging survey of possible young massive clusters (YMC) in M31 performed with the Wide Field and Planetary Camera2 (WFPC2) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We present the images and color magnitude diagrams (CMDs) of all of our targets. {Methods.} The reddening, age and, metallicity of the clusters were estimated by comparing the observed CMDs and luminosity functions with theoretical models. Stellar masses were estimated by comparison with theoretical models in the log(Age) vs. absolute integrated magnitude plane. {Results.} Nineteen of the twenty surveyed candidates were confirmed to be real star clusters. Three of the clusters were found not to be good YMC candidates from newly available integrated spectroscopy and were in fact found to be old from their CMD. Of the remaining sixteen clusters, fourteen have ages between 25 Myr and 280 Myr, two have older ages than 500 Myr (lower limits). By including ten other YMC with HST photometry from the literature we have...

  12. Using the age-based insurance eligibility criterion to estimate moral hazard in medical care consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Zheng

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses fuzzy regression discontinuity design to estimate the moral hazard effect in health care consumption in the population of young adults. We use invoice data for outpatient hospital services from a regional hospital in Croatia.The estimation is complicated by the fact that the data set consists only of users of medical services, which would tend to underestimate the moral hazard effect. To address this issue we use a modified version of the instrumental variables approach.We find a 92% reduction in the number of hospital visits for individuals who lost insurance coverage when crossing the 18th birthday threshold.

  13. The genus Cecropia: a biological clock to estimate the age of recently disturbed areas in the Neotropics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul-Camilo Zalamea

    Full Text Available Forest successional processes following disturbance take decades to play out, even in tropical forests. Nonetheless, records of vegetation change in this ecosystem are scarce, increasing the importance of the chronosequence approach to study forest recovery. However, this approach requires accurate dating of secondary forests, which until now was a difficult and/or expensive task. Cecropia is a widespread and abundant pioneer tree genus of the Neotropics. Here we propose and validate a rapid and straightforward method to estimate the age of secondary forest patches based on morphological observations of Cecropia trees. We found that Cecropia-inferred ages were highly correlated with known ages of the forest. We also demonstrate that Cecropia can be used to accurately date disturbances and propose twenty-one species distributed all over the geographical range of the genus as potential secondary forest chronometer species. Our method is limited in applicability by the maximal longevity of Cecropia individuals. Although the oldest chronosequence used in this study was 20 years old, we argue that at least for the first four decades after disturbance, the method described in this study provides very accurate estimations of secondary forest ages. The age of pioneer trees provides not only information needed to calculate the recovery of carbon stocks that would help to improve forest management, but also provides information needed to characterize the initial floristic composition and the rates of species remigration into secondary forest. Our contribution shows how successional studies can be reliably and inexpensively extended without the need to obtain forest ages based on expensive or potentially inaccurate data across the Neotropics.

  14. Specific and unspecific gynecological alarm symptoms -prevalence estimates in different age groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balasubramaniam, Kirubakaran; Ravn, Pernille; Larsen, Pia V;

    2015-01-01

    or above from the general population. METHODS: An internet-based questionnaire study regarding the prevalence estimates of symptom experiences. A total of 18 symptoms of cervical, endometrial and ovarian cancer were selected through an extensive literature search, which included national and...

  15. Estimating migratory game-bird productivity by integrating age ratio and banding data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, G.S.; Link, W.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Sauer, J.R.; Richkus, K.D.; Boomer, G. Scott

    2010-01-01

    Context: Reproduction is a critical component of fitness, and understanding factors that influence temporal and spatial dynamics in reproductive output is important for effective management and conservation. Although several indices of reproductive output for wide-ranging species, such as migratory birds, exist, there has been no theoretical justification for their estimators or associated measures of variance.

  16. INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF MAYFIELD ESTIMATES USING KNOWLEDGE OF NEST AGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation will focus on the error introduced in nest-survival modeling when nest-cycles are assumed to be of constant length. I will present the types of error that may occur, including biases resulting from incorrect estimates of expected values, as well as biases that o...

  17. Estimated Participation and Hours in Early Care and Education by Type of Arrangement and Income at Ages 2 to 4 in 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Steve; Nores, Milagros

    2012-01-01

    This working paper estimates participation in early childhood education (ECE) programs by child's age, program setting, family income level, and child's household language. To produce the best possible estimates of participation, the authors combined information from multiple data sets. In 2010, approximately 6.6 million between the ages of 2 and…

  18. A new approach to constrain basal helium flux into aquifers for better estimation of groundwater ages by Helium 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Takuya; Sturchio, Neil C.; Chang, Hung K.; Gastmans, Didier; Araguas-Araguas, Luis J.; Jiang, Wei; Lu, Zheng-Tian; Mueller, Peter; Yokochi, Reika; Purtschert, Roland; Zongyu, Chen; Shuiming, Hu; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of groundwater age through the combined use of isotope methods and groundwater flow modelling is the common approach used for developing the required level of knowledge in the case of groundwater pumped from deep aquifers. For more than 50 years radiocarbon and tritium have been the common tools used in isotope hydrology studies to provide first estimates of groundwater age and dynamics. The half-life of carbon-14 (5730 years) and the complex geochemistry of carbon species in most environments have limited the proper characterization of groundwater flow patterns in large sedimentary basins and deep aquifers to ages more recent than about 40 000 years. Over the last years, a number of long-live radionuclides and other isotopes have been tested as more reliable age indicators by specialised laboratories. Among these methods, chlorine-36 (half-life of 300 000 yr) has been used with mixed results, mainly due to problems derived from in-situ production of this radionuclide. Uranium isotopes have also been used in a few instances, but never became a routine tool. Accumulation of helium-4 in deep groundwaters has also been proposed and used in a few instance, but one major obstacle in the 4He dating method is a difficulty in assessing a rate constant of 4He input into aquifers (namely, the entering basal 4He flux). In this context, recent breakthrough developments in analytical methods allow the precise determination of dissolved noble gases in groundwater as well as trace-level noble gas radionuclides present in very old groundwaters. Atom trap trace analysis, or ATTA, has dramatically improved over the last years the processing of very small amount of noble gases, providing now real possibilities for routine measurements of extremely low concentration of exotic radionuclides dissolved in groundwater, such as krypton-81 (half-life 229 000 years). Atom trap trace analysis involves the selective capture of individual atoms of a given isotope using six laser

  19. Body mass index estimation in a school-entry aged cohort in Malta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grech, Victor; Farrugia Sant'Angelo, Victoria

    2009-01-01

    This study measured body mass index (BMI) in a national cohort of school-entry children in Malta (04/2007, n=3461). By International Obesity Task Force criteria, over a quarter are overweight/obese. CDC criteria classify one-third as overweight/obese. BMIs were higher in the less affluent south of the island, especially in the Grand Harbour area. Analysis by school showed differences in boys only with lowest BMIs in private schools, followed by subsidized church schools and by free State schools. These differences are attributed to a lower level of education with regard to the consequences of obesity in the less affluent southern part of the island, along with lifestyles adopted in this area. We estimate that obesity will eventually cost Malta 70,000,000 euros/annum and therefore hope that this study will serve as a catalyst for further population-based BMI estimations and for an intensive effort to curtail this chronic disease.

  20. Research of estimation method of thermal aging embrittlement on cast austenitic stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thermal aging embrittlement of cast austenitic stainless steel components from the decommissioned Advanced Thermal prototype Reactor (ATR) Fugen power station has been characterized. Cast stainless steel materials were obtained from recirculation pump casing. The actual time at temperature for the materials was 138,000 h at 275°C. The Fugen serviced material show modest decrease in Charpy-impact properties and a small increase in micro-Vickers hardness in ferrite phase because of thermal aging at relatively low service temperatures. The fracture toughness prediction method (H3T model) predicts slightly lower values for Charpy-impact energy obtained from the Fugen material. The results from microstructural analysis suggest that the prediction method have the potential to provide higher accuracy by considering activation energy for embrittlement at low service temperatures. (author)

  1. RADIOLOGICAL STUDY OF FUSION OF LOWER END OF FEMUR FOR ESTIMATION OF AGE IN AGRA REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anju

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Determination of age of an individual whether living or dead, is a vexing problem for a medical expert.1 Extensive work has been carried out on the theme in different states of India and abroad as well. However, very little work has been reported with reference to Agra population. Present work was undertaken in 200 school going children with known chronological age. In this study lower end of femur fuses at 16-17 years range i.e. average 16.5 years in females and 17-18 years range i.e. average 17.5 years in males. The epiphyseal union in females occurs earlier than male by 1 year.

  2. Comparison of New Ballards score and Parkins score for gestational age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekumar, Kavita; d'Lima, Annely; Nesargi, Saudamini; Rao, Suman; Bhat, Swarnarekha

    2013-08-01

    This prospective analytical study was done to compare the accuracy of New Ballards score (NBS) and Parkins score (PS) in assessing the gestational age (GA) in newborns. The GA of 284 babies was assessed by the NBS and PS within 24 hours of birth. The two methods of assessment were compared using the Bland Altmann Plot. The mean difference between the two measurements was 1.530576. 95% of the values lay within the limits of agreement which are -1.82982 and 4.890974. The two methods are found to be in acceptable agreement. Parkins score enables us to easily assess the gestational age of babies within ±12 days, especially in sick and preterm babies.

  3. Estimation of Influenza Incidence by Age in the 2011/12 Seasons in Japan using SASSy

    OpenAIRE

    Ohkusa, Yasushi; Yasui, Yoshinori; Sugawara, Tamie; Okabe, Nobuhiko; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Oishi, Kazunori

    2013-01-01

    Objective So far, it is difficult to show the incidence rate of influenza in the official sentinel surveillance in Japan. Hence we construct the system which record infectious diseases at schools, kindergartens, and nursery schools, and then can show the accurate incidence rate of influenza in children by age/grade. Introduction So as to develop more effective countermeasures against influenza, timely and precise information about influenza activity at schools, kindergartens, and nursery scho...

  4. Raman spectroscopy for highly accurate estimation of the age of refrigerated porcine muscle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timinis, Constantinos; Pitris, Costas

    2016-03-01

    The high water content of meat, combined with all the nutrients it contains, make it vulnerable to spoilage at all stages of production and storage even when refrigerated at 5 °C. A non-destructive and in situ tool for meat sample testing, which could provide an accurate indication of the storage time of meat, would be very useful for the control of meat quality as well as for consumer safety. The proposed solution is based on Raman spectroscopy which is non-invasive and can be applied in situ. For the purposes of this project, 42 meat samples from 14 animals were obtained and three Raman spectra per sample were collected every two days for two weeks. The spectra were subsequently processed and the sample age was calculated using a set of linear differential equations. In addition, the samples were classified in categories corresponding to the age in 2-day steps (i.e., 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 or 14 days old), using linear discriminant analysis and cross-validation. Contrary to other studies, where the samples were simply grouped into two categories (higher or lower quality, suitable or unsuitable for human consumption, etc.), in this study, the age was predicted with a mean error of ~ 1 day (20%) or classified, in 2-day steps, with 100% accuracy. Although Raman spectroscopy has been used in the past for the analysis of meat samples, the proposed methodology has resulted in a prediction of the sample age far more accurately than any report in the literature.

  5. Estimation of natural radiation dose and of the age of ancient pottery by Moessbauer effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The effect of natural radioactive radiation on the Moessbauer Effect (ME) spectra of ancient Egyptian pottery samples of known age has been studied. An empirical relation between the intensity ratio of the non-magnetic peaks and the dose has been established. It is suggested that this relation can be used for dating of ancient potteries as a new application of the ME spectroscopy in archaeology

  6. Estimation of physical and mental development of children of the senior pre-school age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasichnyk V.M.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In this work is conducted physical and mental development of children of the senior preschool age. In the experiment, 90 children took part in the fifth year of life, among which 55 boys and 35 girls. It is noted that the children surveyed rate the physical development of the index corresponds to level - above the average. It was determined that the parameters of the functional state of preschool age children meet the age norm. It is revealed that in determining physical performance among boys set a good level, and satisfactory in girls. It is established that the results of physical fitness of boys is slightly higher than in girls. It was found that the diagnosis of the level of mental development in children fifth year of life, the average productivity and stability of attention, visual and auditory memory, visual-imagery and visual-thinking, and perception of speech correspond to the average level, and cognitive processes such as switching and distribution attention, imagination - a low level.

  7. Estimation of gestational age from measurement of crown-rump length with transvaginal sonography in early pregnancy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Hyun Ju; Lee, Young Ho; Kim, Young Hwa [Cheil General Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1994-12-15

    Estimation of gestational age using crown-rump length (CRL) has been considered to be relatively accurate. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between the gestational age (GA) and the CRL seen ontransvaginal sonography and to improve the gestational dating creteria. One hundred and ninety five patients with known date of conception, who were pregnant between February 1990 and December 1992, were examined with high resolution transvaginal ultrasonography. There was a linear relationship between the CRL and the GA from the 27th to the 56th day of ovulation. It was defined by equation, as GA=0.97xCRL+42.4 (r=0.95, p<0.0001). Regression values with 95% confidence limit for CRL were +3.9-4.0 days. Comparison of regression lines between the data from the natural cycle group (N=53) and those from the hormonally treated group (N=142) was performed. There was no statistically significant difference between the two groups (analysis of convariance, p>0.05) In conclusion, trasvaginal sonography was useful in the determination of the GA in the early pregnancy from the 27th day of ovulation up to the 56th day. A new reference chart is provided for the estimation of gestational age according to the CRL

  8. Systematically optimized coenzyme q10-loaded novel proniosomal formulation for treatment of photo-induced aging in mice: characterization, biocompatibility studies, biochemical estimations and anti-aging evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, N K; Nanda, Sanju; Sharma, Gajanand; Katare, O P

    2016-01-01

    Environmental stress and advancing age is considered as the main cause of skin aging. However, environmental stress (especially UV radiations) accelerates the process of skin aging by manifolds. Coenzyme Q10 (CoQ10), an essential compound of cellular bioenergetics also acts as a strong antioxidant and protects the body against aging. High molecular weight and structure specific lipophilic nature of this molecule is a bottle neck in effective delivery through topical route. Preparation of a novel proniosomal (PN) gel formulation of CoQ10 employing systematic design of experiment (DoE) approach is a step ahead in transcending the constraints of the topical delivery. I-optimal mixture design was employed for systematic optimization of proniosomal formulation and evaluation of experimental data was performed for entrapment efficiency and in vitro release. Hydration of PN gel formulation with phosphate buffer (pH 7.5) results in submicron niosomes vesicles of spherical shape, which appeared dark against bright surroundings in TEM study. Animal skin was treated with UV radiations followed by treatment of PN gel CoQ10 and conventional CoQ10 present in a gel base. The effectiveness of the treatment was evaluated on the basis of biochemical estimation and histopathological studies. By using CoQ10 PN gel formulation, levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CA), glutathione (GSH) and total proteins were restored by 81.3%, 72.1%, 74.8 and 77.1%, respectively to that of control group. Histopathological studies revealed better protection of skin treated with CoQ10 PN gel compared to free CoQ10. Prepared PN gel was found undisturbing with the normal histology hence, tolerated by animal skin compare to conventional gel. PMID:26302815

  9. Geostatistical model-based estimates of Schistosomiasis prevalence among individuals aged ≤ 20 years in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadine Schur

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤ 20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤ 20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia and 37.1% (Liberia for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia and 51.6% (Sierra Leone for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3% than reported before (30.0%. Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. CONCLUSION

  10. ESTIMATING THE AGE OF DEMARCATION OF JUVENILE AND MATURE WOOD IN Luehea divaricata Mart.

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    Darci Alberto Gatto

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at determining the age of demarcation of juvenile and mature wood of Luehea divaricata Mart., using anatomical characteristics. Three adult trees, in good trunk, with diameter at DBH larger than 30 cm, from Encosta Superior do Nordeste do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, were selected. Discs with thickness of 2 cm at 0.1 m of height from the base of the trunk were used. From each disc a radial ribbon 2 cm wide including the pith was removed. The initial wood of each growth ring was separated for maceration (method of Jeffrey. There were measured length and diameter of thirty fibers from each growth ring. Demarcation of the two types of wood was defined by the radial variation (pith-bark of the anatomical characteristics (length, diameter, width of the lumen and wall thickness of fibers, using simple linear regression. Results indicate that fiber length is the best characteristic, while fiber diameter, lumen width and wall thickness were considered inadequate for demarcation. The age of demarcation of juvenile and mature wood of Luehea divaricata was defined as 21 years-old, approximately.

  11. Validation of accelerated ageing of Thales rotary Stirling cryocoolers for the estimation of MTTF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seguineau, C.,; Cauquil, J.-M.; Martin, J.-Y.; Benschop, T.

    2016-05-01

    The cooled IR detectors are used in a wide range of applications. Most of the time, the cryocoolers are one of the components dimensioning the lifetime of the system. The current market needs tend to reliability figures higher than 15,000hrs in "standard conditions". Field returns are hardly useable mostly because of the uncertain environmental conditions of use, or the differences in user profiles. A previous paper explains how Thales Cryogenics has developed an approach based on accelerated ageing and statistical analysis [1]. The aim of the current paper is to compare results obtained on accelerated ageing on one side, and on the other side, specific field returns where the conditions of use are well known. The comparison between prediction and effective failure rate is discussed. Moreover, a specific focus is done on how some new applications of cryocoolers (continuous operation at a specific temperature) can increase the MTTF. Some assumptions are also exposed on how the failure modes, effects and criticality analysis evolves for continuous operation at a specific temperature and compared to experimental data.

  12. OCCLUSION VERIFICATION IN FACE DETECTION AND AGE ESTIMATION USING LOCAL BINARY PATTERN AND DTOD CLASSIFIER USING MORPH DATASET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.Karthigayani

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research work is focused on occlusion conditions in the face like wearing sunglasses and scarf in the eyes and mouth positions of the facial image. The proposed work has three stages.The first stage was based on Decision Tree Induction C5.0 algorithm to classify the occluded part and non occluded part in the facial image. The Second stage was face verification using Local Binary Pattern method. The third stage carried out the estimation of human age using Back Propagation Neural Network. The results of the proposed work having high accuracy of identification of face using decision tree and local binary pattern method using non occluded part of the facial image as the feature. Also the age can be identified using Back Propagation Neural Network algorithm using winkles as a feature and the gender can be classified using the Posteriori and Priori probability values. Compared to the existing work the occluded part was efficiently classified using Decision Tree method and the age can be classified into minimum age intervals like 0-2, 3-5, 6-9 instead of 0-9 in the existing work.

  13. Longevity of Atlantic Sharpnose Sharks Rhizoprionodon terraenovae and Blacknose Sharks Carcharhinus acronotus in the western North Atlantic Ocean based on tag-recapture data and direct age estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Bryan S; Driggers Iii, William B; Ulrich, Glenn F

    2014-01-01

    Longevity of Rhizoprionodon terraenovae and Carcharhinus acronotus in the western North Atlantic Ocean was examined using direct age estimates from vertebral sections and tag-recapture data. Time-at-liberty ranged from 7.7-14.0 years (mean =10.1) for R. terraenovae and 10.9-12.8 years (mean =11.9) for C. acronotus. Maximum estimated longevity was determined to be 19.8 years through tag-recapture data and 18.5 years from direct age estimates for R. terraenovae and 22.8 years through tag-recapture data and 20.5 years through direct age estimates for C. acronotus. These longevity estimates represent a large increase over previous estimates and may have significant effects on analyses that depend on longevity including lifetime fecundity, mortality rates, demographic analyses and stock assessments. PMID:25685321

  14. The Impact of Gender, Age and Tissues in vitro on Estimating Postmortem Interval by FTIR Spectroscopy%The Impact of Gender,Age and Tissues in vitro on Estimating Postmortem Interval by FTIR Spectroscopy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUAN Miao-gen; FU Gao-wen; LIU Feng; MENG Hao-tian; WANG Zhen-yuan

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the influence of such individual factors as gender,age and tissues in vitro to the postmortem interval (PMI) by the Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer in animal experiments.SD rats were classified into male and female groups,different age groups (21-day,42-day and 63-day group),and tissues in vitro and in vivo groups.The rats were sacrificed by cervical dislocation,whose bodies were kept in a controlled environmental chamber set at (20±2)℃ and 50% humidity.The liver,kidney,spleen,myocardium,brain,lung and skeletal muscle tissues were collected for measurement from time zero to 48 h postmortem.With the change of PMI,no obvious changes were found in the main FTIR absorbance peaks and their ratios at different time points.All the experimental groups showed no significant changes when compared with the controls.The gender,age and tissues in vitro were not found to be contributing factors in the estimation of PMI via FTIR spectroscopy.

  15. Functional Time Series Models to Estimate Future Age-Specific Breast Cancer Incidence Rates for Women in Karachi, Pakistan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farah Yasmeen[1; Sidra Zaheer[2

    2014-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighboring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the highest recorded rate in Asia. The carcinoma of breast in Pakistan is an enormous public health concern. In this study, we examined the recent trends of breast cancer incidence rates among the women in Karachi. Methods: We obtained the secondary data of breast cancer incidence from various hospitals. They included Jinnah Hospital, KIRAN (Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine), and Civil hospital, where the data were available for the years 2004-2011. A total of 5331 new cases of female breast cancer were registered during this period. We analyzed the data in 5-year age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75+. Nonparametric smoothing were used to obtained age-specific incidence curves, and then the curves are decomposed using principal components analysis to fit FTS (functional time series) model. We then used exponential smoothing statspace models to estimate the forecasts of incidence curve and construct prediction intervals. Results: The breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi increased with age for all available years. The rates increased monotonically and are relatively sharp with the age from 15 years to 50 years and then they show variability after the age of 50 years. 10-year forecasts for the female breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi show that the future rates are expected to remain stable for the age-groups 15-50 years, but they will increase for the females of 50-years and over. Hence in future, the newly diagnosed breast cancer cases in the older women in Karachi are expected to increase. Conclusion: Prediction of age

  16. Growth process in an elephant tusk: Age estimations based on temporal variations in bomb-radiocarbon content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Toshio; Koike, Hiroko; Aizawa, Jun; Okuno, Mitsuru

    2015-10-01

    In this study, 14C analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was applied to age estimation based on temporal variations in bomb-produced-14C contents of a full elephant tusk registered at Kyushu University. The tusk measured 175 cm long and 13.8 cm in diameter at the root. Thirty tusk-fragment samples were used for 14C analysis with AMS to estimate the formation ages of different positions according to catalogued global 14C contents (F14C). The F14C value of the tip of the tusk suggested that the elephant was born around 1980, while that of the root suggested death around 1994, a lifespan of at least 14 years, rather shorter period than the average lifetime of an elephant (ca. 80 years). In addition, the F14C values of fragments collected along a cross-sectional line suggested that the outer part of the tusk formed first with inner parts being deposited gradually with growth.

  17. Anatomy and age estimation of an early blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) fetus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roston, Rachel A; Lickorish, David; Buchholtz, Emily A

    2013-04-01

    The external anatomy of a 130-mm blue whale fetus (Balaenoptera musculus) is described, and its internal anatomy is reconstructed noninvasively from microCT scans. The specimen lies developmentally at the junction of the embryonic and fetal periods. Similarly to the embryos of many odontocetes, it lacks a caudal fluke and dorsal fin, but it also exhibits an elongated rostrum, resorbed umbilical hernia, partially exposed cornea, and spatial separation of the anus and genitalia seen in early odontocete fetuses. Dermal ossification of the cranial bones has begun, but the endochondral skeleton is completely cartilaginous. The shape and position of the maxilla suggest that the earliest stages of anterior skull telescoping have begun, but there is no indication of occipital overlap posteriorly. The nasopharynx, larynx, and heart already display the distinctive morphology characteristic of Balaenoptera. This study develops a model of body length changes during blue whale development by integrating the large International Whaling Statistics (IWS) database, historical observations of blue whale migration and reproduction, and descriptions of fetal growth trends in other mammals. The model predicts an age of 65 days postconception for the specimen. The early developmental milestones of Balaenoptera mirror those of the odontocete Stenella to a remarkable extent, but the first appearance of the caudal fluke and dorsal fin are delayed relative to other morphological transitions. The accelerated prenatal growth characteristic of Balaenoptera occurs during fetal, not embryonic, development. PMID:23447333

  18. Simultaneous estimation of effects of gender, age and walking speed on kinematic gait data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Røislien, Jo; Skare, Øivind; Gustavsen, Marit; Broch, Nana L; Rennie, Linda; Opheim, Arve

    2009-11-01

    Analysis of variations in normal gait has received considerable attention over the last years. However, most such analyses are carried out on one explanatory variable at a time, and adjustments for other possibly influencing factors are often done using ad hoc methods. As a result, it can be difficult to know whether observed effects are actually a result of the variable under study. We wanted to simultaneously statistically test the effect of gender, age and walking speed on gait in a normal population, while also properly adjusting for the possibly confounding effects of body height and weight. Since point-by-point analysis does not take into account the time dependency in the data, we turned to functional data analysis (FDA). In FDA the whole gait curve is represented not by a set of points, but by a mathematical function spanning the whole gait cycle. We performed several multiple functional regression analyses, and the results indicate that walking speed is the main factor influencing gait in the reference material at our motion analysis laboratory. This effect is also largely unaffected by the presence of other variables in the model. A gender effect was also apparent in several planes and joints, but this effect was often more outspoken in the multiple than in the univariate regression analyses, highlighting the importance of adjusting for confounders like body height and weight. PMID:19665379

  19. Estimating the Burden of Leptospirosis among Febrile Subjects Aged below 20 Years in Kampong Cham Communities, Cambodia, 2007-2009.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sopheak Hem

    Full Text Available Leptospirosis is an emerging but neglected public health challenge in the Asia/Pacific Region with an annual incidence estimated at 10-100 per 100,000 population. No accurate data, however, are available for at-risk rural Cambodian communities.We conducted anonymous, unlinked testing for IgM antibodies to Leptospira spp. on paired sera of Cambodian patients <20 years of age between 2007-2009 collected through active, community-based surveillance for febrile illnesses in a convenience sample of 27 rural and semi-rural villages in four districts of Kampong Cham province, Cambodia. Leptospirosis testing was done on paired serological samples negative for Dengue, Japanese encephalitis and Chikungunya viruses after random selection. Convalescent samples found positive while initial samples were negative were considered as proof of acute infection. We then applied a mathematical model to estimate the risk of fever caused by leptospirosis, dengue or other causes in rural Cambodia.A total of 630 samples are coming from a randomly selected subset of 2358 samples. IgM positive were found on the convalescent serum sample, among which 100 (15.8% samples were IgM negative on an earlier sample. Seventeen of these 100 seroconversions were confirmed using a Microagglutination Test. We estimated the probability of having a fever due to leptospirosis at 1. 03% (95% Credible Interval CI: 0. 95%-1. 22% per semester. In comparison, this probability was 2. 61% (95% CI: 2. 55%, 2. 83% for dengue and 17. 65% (95% CI: 17. 49%, 18. 08% for other causes.Our data from febrile cases aged below 20 years suggest that the burden of leptospirosis is high in rural Cambodian communities. This is especially true during the rainy season, even in the absence of identified epidemics.

  20. Age estimation of juvenile European hake Merluccius merluccius based on otolith microstructure analysis: a slow or fast growth pattern?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattoura, P; Lefkaditou, E; Megalofonou, P

    2015-03-01

    The main goal of this study was to examine otolith microstructure and to estimate the age and growth of European hake Merluccius merluccius from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. One hundred and twenty-nine specimens ranging from 102 to 438 mm in total length (LT ) were used. Age estimations were based on the study of the otolith microstructure, which was revealed after grinding both frontal sides of otoliths. The enumerations of the daily growth increments (DGI) as well as their width (WDGI ) measurements were made on calibrated digital images. The number of DGI in otoliths ranged between 163 and 717. Four phases in the WDGI evolution were distinguished: (1) larval-juvenile pelagic phase, with an increasing trend in WDGI up to the 60th DGI, (2) settlement phase, with a short-term deceleration in WDGI between the 61st and 150th DGI, (3) juvenile demersal phase, characterized by a stabilization of WDGI from 151st to 400th DGI and (4) adult phase, with a decreasing trend in WDGI after the 400th DGI. Age, sex and month of formation were found to affect the WDGI in all phases, with the exception of age at the juvenile demersal phase. The power curve with intercept model described best the relationship of M. merluccius LT with age (TDGI ), according to Akaike criteria, revealing differences in growth between females [LT = 65 · 36(TDGI )(0 · 40) - 388 · 55] and males [LT = 69 · 32(TDGI )(0 · 37) - 352 · 88] for the sizes examined. The mean daily growth rates were 0·61 mm day(-1) for females and 0·52 mm day(-1) for males, resulting in an LT of 283 and 265 mm at the end of their first year of life. In comparison with previous studies on the Mediterranean Sea, the results of this study showed a greater growth rate, similar to results from tagging experiments and otolith microstructure analyses for M. merluccius in other geographic areas. PMID:25545134

  1. Age estimates and uplift rates for late Pleistocene marine terraces: Southern Oregon portion of the Cascadia forearc

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muhs, D.R.; Whelan, J.F. (Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States)); Kelsey, H.M.; McInelly, G.W. (Western Washington Univ., Bellingham (United States)); Miller, G.H. (Univ. of Colorado, Boulder (United States)); Kennedy, G.L. (Los Angeles County Museum of Natural History, CA (United States))

    1990-05-10

    Interest in the Cascadia subduction zone has increased because recent investigations have suggested that slip along plates at certain types of convergent margins is characteristically accompanied by large earthquakes. In addition, other investigations have suggested that convergent margins can be broadly classified by the magnitude of their uplift rates. The authors generated new uranium series, amino acid, and stable isotope data for southern Oregon marine terrace fossils. These data, along with terrace elevations and two alternative estimates of sea level at the time of terrace formation, allow one to determine terrace ages and uplift rates. Uranium series analysis of fossil coral yields an age of 83 {plus minus} 5 ka for the Whisky Run terrace at Coquille Point in Bandon, Oregon. A combination of amino acid and oxygen isotope data suggest ages of about 80 and 105 ka for the lowest two terraces at Cape Blanco. These ages indicate uplift rates of 0.45-1.05 and 0.81-1.49 m/kyr for Coquille Point and Cape Blanco, respectively. In order to assess the utility of the southern Oregon uplift rates for predicting the behavior of the Cascadia subduction zone, the authors compared late Quaternary uplift rates derived from terrace data from subduction zones around the world. On the basis of this comparison the southern Oregon rates of vertical deformation are not usually high or low. Furthermore, late Quaternary uplift rates show little relationship to the type of convergent margin. In the case of the southern Oregon coast, variability in uplift rate probably reflects local structures in the overriding plate, and the rate of uplift cannot be used as a simple index of the potential for great earthquakes along the southern Cascadia subduction zone.

  2. ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment: a research model to improve the governance of prescribing funds in Italy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giampiero Favato

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The primary objective of this study was to make the first step in the modelling of pharmaceutical demand in Italy, by deriving a weighted capitation model to account for demographic differences among general practices. The experimental model was called ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment. METHODS AND MAJOR FINDINGS: Individual prescription costs and demographic data referred to 3,175,691 Italian subjects and were collected directly from three Regional Health Authorities over the 12-month period between October 2004 and September 2005. The mean annual prescription cost per individual was similar for males (196.13 euro and females (195.12 euro. After 65 years of age, the mean prescribing costs for males were significantly higher than females. On average, costs for a 75-year-old subject would be 12 times the costs for a 25-34 year-old subject if male, 8 times if female. Subjects over 65 years of age (22% of total population accounted for 56% of total prescribing costs. The weightings explained approximately 90% of the evolution of total prescribing costs, in spite of the pricing and reimbursement turbulences affecting Italy in the 2000-2005 period. The ASSET weightings were able to explain only about 25% of the variation in prescribing costs among individuals. CONCLUSIONS: If mainly idiosyncratic prescribing by general practitioners causes the unexplained variations, the introduction of capitation-based budgets would gradually move practices with high prescribing costs towards the national average. It is also possible, though, that the unexplained individual variation in prescribing costs is the result of differences in the clinical characteristics or socio-economic conditions of practice populations. If this is the case, capitation-based budgets may lead to unfair distribution of resources. The ASSET age/sex weightings should be used as a guide, not as the ultimate determinant, for an equitable allocation of prescribing

  3. A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switzer, P.; Harden, J.W.; Mark, R.K.

    1988-01-01

    A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the

  4. Implications of rbcL phylogeny for historical biogeography of genus Mercurialis L.: Estimating age and center of origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovanović V.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to address questions concerning the historical biogeography of the genus Mercurialis in the subfamily Acalyphoideae. Applying a molecular clock to obtained rbcL phylogeny, we estimated the minimal age of divergence of genus Mercurialis to ~65-66 Ma, placing it at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. We used ancestral area analysis and dispersal-vicariance analysis to infer the center of origin of the genus. Contrary to previous hypothesis, our results show that Mercurialis originated in Indomalaya and migrated westward, while the Mediterranean area was most probably the center of ecological diversification and further speciation. Evolutionary events of vicariance and dispersals were reconstructed in a proposed scenario of divergence of Mercurialis within Acalyphoideae. .

  5. A new model for the estimation of time of death from vitreous potassium levels corrected for age and temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zilg, B; Bernard, S; Alkass, K; Berg, S; Druid, H

    2015-09-01

    Analysis of potassium concentration in the vitreous fluid of the eye is frequently used by forensic pathologists to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI), particularly when other methods commonly used in the early phase of an investigation can no longer be applied. The postmortem rise in vitreous potassium has been recognized for several decades and is readily explained by a diffusion of potassium from surrounding cells into the vitreous fluid. However, there is no consensus regarding the mathematical equation that best describes this increase. The existing models assume a linear increase, but different slopes and starting points have been proposed. In this study, vitreous potassium levels, and a number of factors that may influence these levels, were examined in 462 cases with known postmortem intervals that ranged from 2h to 17 days. We found that the postmortem rise in potassium followed a non-linear curve and that decedent age and ambient temperature influenced the variability by 16% and 5%, respectively. A long duration of agony and a high alcohol level at the time of death contributed less than 1% variability, and evaluation of additional possible factors revealed no detectable impact on the rise of vitreous potassium. Two equations were subsequently generated, one that represents the best fit of the potassium concentrations alone, and a second that represents potassium concentrations with correction for decedent age and/or ambient temperature. The former was associated with narrow confidence intervals in the early postmortem phase, but the intervals gradually increased with longer PMIs. For the latter equation, the confidence intervals were reduced at all PMIs. Therefore, the model that best describes the observed postmortem rise in vitreous potassium levels includes potassium concentration, decedent age, and ambient temperature. Furthermore, the precision of these equations, particularly for long PMIs, is expected to gradually improve by adjusting the

  6. Preterm or not--an evaluation of estimates of gestational age in a cohort of women from Rural Papua New Guinea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan Karl

    Full Text Available Knowledge of accurate gestational age is required for comprehensive pregnancy care and is an essential component of research evaluating causes of preterm birth. In industrialised countries gestational age is determined with the help of fetal biometry in early pregnancy. Lack of ultrasound and late presentation to antenatal clinic limits this practice in low-resource settings. Instead, clinical estimators of gestational age are used, but their accuracy remains a matter of debate.In a cohort of 688 singleton pregnancies from rural Papua New Guinea, delivery gestational age was calculated from Ballard score, last menstrual period, symphysis-pubis fundal height at first visit and quickening as well as mid- and late pregnancy fetal biometry. Published models using sequential fundal height measurements and corrected last menstrual period to estimate gestational age were also tested. Novel linear models that combined clinical measurements for gestational age estimation were developed. Predictions were compared with the reference early pregnancy ultrasound (<25 gestational weeks using correlation, regression and Bland-Altman analyses and ranked for their capability to predict preterm birth using the harmonic mean of recall and precision (F-measure.Average bias between reference ultrasound and clinical methods ranged from 0-11 days (95% confidence levels: 14-42 days. Preterm birth was best predicted by mid-pregnancy ultrasound (F-measure: 0.72, and neuromuscular Ballard score provided the least reliable preterm birth prediction (F-measure: 0.17. The best clinical methods to predict gestational age and preterm birth were last menstrual period and fundal height (F-measures 0.35. A linear model combining both measures improved prediction of preterm birth (F-measure: 0.58.Estimation of gestational age without ultrasound is prone to significant error. In the absence of ultrasound facilities, last menstrual period and fundal height are among the more reliable

  7. Age estimates and uplift rates for Late Pleistocene marine terraces: Southern Oregon portion of the Cascadia Forearc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhs, Daniel R.; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Miller, Gifford H.; Kennedy, George L.; Whelan, Joseph F.; McInelly, Galan W.

    1990-05-01

    Marine terraces are prominent landforms along the southern Oregon coast, which forms part of the forearc region of the Cascadia subduction zone. Interest in the Cascadia subduction zone has increased because recent investigations have suggested that slip along plates at certain types of convergent margins is characteristically accompanied by large earthquakes. In addition, other investigations have suggested that convergent margins can be broadly classified by the magnitude of their uplift rates. With these hypotheses in mind, we generated new uranium series, amino acid, and stable isotope data for southern Oregon marine terrace fossils. These data, along with terrace elevations and two alternative estimates of sea level at the time of terrace formation, allow us to determine terrace ages and uplift rates. Uranium series analysis of fossil coral yields an age of 83±5 ka for the Whisky Run terrace at Coquille Point in Bandon, Oregon. A combination of amino acid and oxygen isotope data suggest ages of about 80 and 105 ka for the lowest two terraces at Cape Blanco. These ages indicate uplift rates of 0.45-1.05 and 0.81-1.49 m/kyr for Coquille Point and Cape Blanco, respectively. Late Quaternary uplift rates of marine terraces yield information about deformation in the overriding plate, but it is unclear if such data vary systematically with convergent margin type. In order to assess the utility of the southern Oregon uplift rates for predicting the behavior of the Cascadia subduction zone, we compared late Quaternary uplift rates derived from terrace data from subduction zones around the world. On the basis of this comparison the southern Oregon rates of vertical deformation are not unusually high or low. Furthermore, late Quaternary uplift rates show little relationship to the type of convergent margin. These observations suggest that local structures may play a large role in uplift rate variability. In addition, while the type of convergent margin may place an

  8. National and regional estimates of term and preterm babies born small for gestational age in 138 low-income and middle-income countries in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Anne C C; Katz, Joanne; Blencowe, Hannah;

    2013-01-01

    million low-birthweight babies, 59% were term-SGA and 41% were preterm-SGA. Two-thirds of small-for-gestational-age infants were born in Asia (17·4 million in south Asia). Preterm-SGA babies totalled 2·8 million births in low-income and middle-income countries. Most small-for-gestational-age infants were......BACKGROUND: National estimates for the numbers of babies born small for gestational age and the comorbidity with preterm birth are unavailable. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of term and preterm babies born small for gestational age (term-SGA and preterm-SGA), and the relation to low...... birthweight (age was defined as lower than the 10th centile for fetal growth from the 1991 US national reference population. Data from 22 birth cohort studies (14 low-income and middle-income countries) and from...

  9. Age estimation on the stricture of pulp cavity of the mandibular first premolar by 3D micro-focus X-CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To know the effect of aging on pulp cavity volumes, 40 mandibular first premolars obtained from 21-75 years old persons and stored in authors' laboratory were subjected to 3D micro-focus X-CT (SMX-130CT-SV, Shimadzu Works) to determine the volume, and ratios to the root canal pulp volume of the crown (C), cervical 1/3 (R1), central (R2) and apical 1/3 (R3) pulp volumes were calculated. In all ages examined, the ratios were in the order of R1>R2>C>R3, and were decreased by aging with exception for R1. Changes in R1 were significant in thirties to fifties and in R2, in twenties to thirties. Multiple regression analysis for age estimation gave the multiple correlation coefficient of 0.82 and coefficient of determination of 0.67, and the item that the partial correlation coefficient was significantly high was R1 (RPVR1) alone. Regression analysis using RPVR1 as a variable gave the multiple correlation coefficient of 0.81 between actual and estimated ages and estimated error (within ±6 years) by the regression was 42.5%. The method was thus found usefully applied for age estimation in forensic judgment. (S.I.)

  10. Estimating Gestational Age in Late Presenters to Antenatal Care in a Resource-Limited Setting on the Thai-Myanmar Border.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Kerryn A; Simpson, Julie A; Thomas, Kyla H; Rijken, Marcus J; White, Lisa J; Dwell, Saw Lu Moo; Paw, Moo Kho; Wiladphaingern, Jacher; Pukrittayakamee, Sasithon; Nosten, François; Fowkes, Freya J I; McGready, Rose

    2015-01-01

    Estimating gestational age in resource-limited settings is prone to considerable inaccuracy because crown-rump length measured by ultrasound before 14 weeks gestation, the recommended method for estimating gestational age, is often unavailable. Judgements regarding provision of appropriate obstetric and neonatal care are dependent on accurate estimation of gestational age. We determined the accuracy of the Dubowitz Gestational Age Assessment, a population-specific symphysis-fundal height formula, and ultrasound biometry performed between 16 and 40 weeks gestation in estimating gestational age using pre-existing data from antenatal clinics of the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit on the Thai-Myanmar border, where malaria is endemic. Two cohorts of women who gave birth to live singletons were analysed: 1) 250 women who attended antenatal care between July 2001 and May 2006 and had both ultrasound crown-rump length (reference) and a Dubowitz Gestational Age Assessment; 2) 975 women attending antenatal care between April 2007 and October 2010 who had ultrasound crown-rump length, symphysis-fundal measurements, and an additional study ultrasound (biparietal diameter and head circumference) randomly scheduled between 16 and 40 weeks gestation. Mean difference in estimated newborn gestational age between methods and 95% limits of agreement (LOA) were determined from linear mixed-effects models. The Dubowitz method and the symphysis-fundal height formula performed well in term newborns, but overestimated gestational age of preterms by 2.57 weeks (95% LOA: 0.49, 4.65) and 3.94 weeks (95% LOA: 2.50, 5.38), respectively. Biparietal diameter overestimated gestational age by 0.83 weeks (95% LOA: -0.93, 2.58). Head circumference underestimated gestational age by 0.39 weeks (95% LOA: -2.60, 1.82), especially if measured after 24 weeks gestation. The results of this study can be used to quantify biases associated with alternative methods for estimating gestational age in the absence of

  11. Estimating Gestational Age in Late Presenters to Antenatal Care in a Resource-Limited Setting on the Thai-Myanmar Border.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerryn A Moore

    Full Text Available Estimating gestational age in resource-limited settings is prone to considerable inaccuracy because crown-rump length measured by ultrasound before 14 weeks gestation, the recommended method for estimating gestational age, is often unavailable. Judgements regarding provision of appropriate obstetric and neonatal care are dependent on accurate estimation of gestational age. We determined the accuracy of the Dubowitz Gestational Age Assessment, a population-specific symphysis-fundal height formula, and ultrasound biometry performed between 16 and 40 weeks gestation in estimating gestational age using pre-existing data from antenatal clinics of the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit on the Thai-Myanmar border, where malaria is endemic. Two cohorts of women who gave birth to live singletons were analysed: 1 250 women who attended antenatal care between July 2001 and May 2006 and had both ultrasound crown-rump length (reference and a Dubowitz Gestational Age Assessment; 2 975 women attending antenatal care between April 2007 and October 2010 who had ultrasound crown-rump length, symphysis-fundal measurements, and an additional study ultrasound (biparietal diameter and head circumference randomly scheduled between 16 and 40 weeks gestation. Mean difference in estimated newborn gestational age between methods and 95% limits of agreement (LOA were determined from linear mixed-effects models. The Dubowitz method and the symphysis-fundal height formula performed well in term newborns, but overestimated gestational age of preterms by 2.57 weeks (95% LOA: 0.49, 4.65 and 3.94 weeks (95% LOA: 2.50, 5.38, respectively. Biparietal diameter overestimated gestational age by 0.83 weeks (95% LOA: -0.93, 2.58. Head circumference underestimated gestational age by 0.39 weeks (95% LOA: -2.60, 1.82, especially if measured after 24 weeks gestation. The results of this study can be used to quantify biases associated with alternative methods for estimating gestational age in the

  12. Criteria of estimation of positive health level in the long-term process of the health training of women of senior age.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prusik Katerina

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article materials of the three-year looking are utillized after the state of positive health of group of women in age 50-80 years. The method of statistical ground of adequate control indexes is shown for the estimation of bodily condition of inspected. The use of high-quality criteria is offered for the estimation of efficiency of physical exercises on the Norwegian method of walking with sticks.

  13. A Bayesian modeling approach for estimation of a shape-free groundwater age distribution using multiple tracers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Massoudieh, A.; Visser, A.; Sharifi, S.; Broers, H.P.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distributi

  14. Does Net Endogenous Acid Production (NEAP) Estimated from Diet Vary with Age and Body Mass Index (BMI) in Men and Women?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acid-base balance may influence skeletal health in humans. Animal and plant-based foods provide acid and alkaline precursors respectively, which contribute to net acid-base balance. Algorithms for estimating NEAP from dietary protein and potassium levels have been published, but it is unknown if age...

  15. Physical Activity Is not Associated with Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate among Young and Middle-Aged Adults : Results from the Population-Based Longitudinal Doetinchem Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herber-Gast, Gerrie-Cor M.; Hulsegge, Gerben; Hartman, Linda; Verschuren, W. M. Monique; Stehouwer, Coen D. A.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Spijkerman, Annemieke M. W.

    2015-01-01

    There is debate as to whether physical inactivity is associated with reduced kidney function. We studied the prospective association of (changes in) physical activity with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in adult men and women. We included 3,935 participants aged 26 to 65 years from the

  16. Comparison of the frequentist properties of Bayes and the maximum likelihood estimators in an age-structured fish stock assessment model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anders; Lewy, Peter

    2002-01-01

    A simulation study was carried out for a separable fish stock assessment model including commercial and survey catch-at-age and effort data. All catches are considered stochastic variables subject to sampling and process variations. The results showed that the Bayes estimator of spawning biomass ...

  17. Review of Telomere Length for Forensic Age Estimation%测定端粒长度推断法医学年龄的研究进展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨吉庆; 黄兆样; 梁杰; 夏志远; 翟仙敦; 莫耀南

    2016-01-01

    Objective To review the researches on the telomere length in different tissues or cell and its correlation to forensic age estimation. Methods A systematic review was made by referring the latest literatures on the structure of telomere,the methods for measuring telomere length,its correlations to forensic age estimation as well as the influencing factors etc. Results Telomere length in different tissues or cells was significant correlation to forensic age estimation. Conclusion Determination of telomere length is very helpful in forensic age estimation.%目的:对不同组织细胞端粒长度与法医学年龄关系的研究进行综述,为相关研究提供参考。方法参考近年来有关文献,对端粒的结构及功能、端粒长度的测定方法、不同组织细胞端粒长度与法医学年龄的关系,以及端粒长度的影响因素等方面进行系统回顾。结果不同组织细胞端粒长度与法医学年龄关系显著。结论测定端粒长度对于法医学年龄推断具有重要意义。

  18. Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2016-06-01

    Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

  19. Age-at-death estimation by pulp/tooth area ratio in canines: study of a 20th-century Mexican sample of prisoners to test Cameriere's method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Luca, Stefano; Bautista, Josefina; Alemán, Inmaculada; Cameriere, Roberto

    2011-09-01

    Accurate age estimation has always been a problem for forensic scientists, and apposition of secondary dentine is often used as an indicator of age. Cameriere et al. studied the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical X-ray images of the canines, to observe the apposition of secondary dentine. The present study examines the application of this technique in a Mexican identified sample coming from the Department of Physical Anthropology of the INAH, at Mexico City. The main aim of this work is to test the reliability of this method in a skeletal sample of a specific population, different from the samples used for its development. The obtained regression model explained 96.2% of total variance (R(2) = 0.962) with a standard error of estimate of 1.909 and a standard deviation of 1.947. These results demonstrate great reliability and that the age/secondary dentine relationship is not variable in this specific population.

  20. Digital radiographic evaluation of mandibular third molar for age estimation in young adults and adolescents of South Indian population using modified Demirjian′s method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rezwana Begum Mohammed

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, it has become increasingly important to determine the age of living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of mandibular third molar for estimation of dental age (DA in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA in South Indian population. Materials and Methods: Digital orthopantomography of 330 subjects (165 males, 165 females who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular third molar development was performed using Demirjian et al., modified method and DA was assessed using tooth specific stages. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males and females. Third molar development commenced around 9 years and root completion takes place around 18.9 years in males and in females 9 years and 18.6 years respectively. Demirjian modified method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.8 years and females by 0.5 years and also showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. Conclusion: Digital radiographic assessment of mandibular third molar development can be used to generate mean DA using Demirjian modified method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. Since the Demirjian method is based on French-Canadian population, to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molar development, the use of population-specific standards is recommended.

  1. Age- and gender-specific estimates of cumulative CT dose over 5 years using real radiation dose tracking data in children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is necessary to develop a mechanism to estimate and analyze cumulative radiation risks from multiple CT exams in various clinical scenarios in children. To identify major contributors to high cumulative CT dose estimates using actual dose-length product values collected for 5 years in children. Between August 2006 and July 2011 we reviewed 26,937 CT exams in 13,803 children. Among them, we included 931 children (median age 3.5 years, age range 0 days-15 years; M:F = 533:398) who had 5,339 CT exams. Each child underwent at least three CT scans and had accessible radiation dose reports. Dose-length product values were automatically extracted from DICOM files and we used recently updated conversion factors for age, gender, anatomical region and tube voltage to estimate CT radiation dose. We tracked the calculated CT dose estimates to obtain a 5-year cumulative value for each child. The study population was divided into three groups according to the cumulative CT dose estimates: high, ≥30 mSv; moderate, 10-30 mSv; and low, <10 mSv. We reviewed clinical data and CT protocols to identify major contributors to high and moderate cumulative CT dose estimates. Median cumulative CT dose estimate was 5.4 mSv (range 0.5-71.1 mSv), and median number of CT scans was 4 (range 3-36). High cumulative CT dose estimates were most common in children with malignant tumors (57.9%, 11/19). High frequency of CT scans was attributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates in children with ventriculoperitoneal shunt (35 in 1 child) and malignant tumors (range 18-49). Moreover, high-dose CT protocols, such as multiphase abdomen CT (median 4.7 mSv) contributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates even in children with a low number of CT scans. Disease group, number of CT scans, and high-dose CT protocols are major contributors to higher cumulative CT dose estimates in children. (orig.)

  2. Age- and gender-specific estimates of cumulative CT dose over 5 years using real radiation dose tracking data in children

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eunsol; Goo, Hyun Woo; Lee, Jae-Yeong [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-08-15

    It is necessary to develop a mechanism to estimate and analyze cumulative radiation risks from multiple CT exams in various clinical scenarios in children. To identify major contributors to high cumulative CT dose estimates using actual dose-length product values collected for 5 years in children. Between August 2006 and July 2011 we reviewed 26,937 CT exams in 13,803 children. Among them, we included 931 children (median age 3.5 years, age range 0 days-15 years; M:F = 533:398) who had 5,339 CT exams. Each child underwent at least three CT scans and had accessible radiation dose reports. Dose-length product values were automatically extracted from DICOM files and we used recently updated conversion factors for age, gender, anatomical region and tube voltage to estimate CT radiation dose. We tracked the calculated CT dose estimates to obtain a 5-year cumulative value for each child. The study population was divided into three groups according to the cumulative CT dose estimates: high, ≥30 mSv; moderate, 10-30 mSv; and low, <10 mSv. We reviewed clinical data and CT protocols to identify major contributors to high and moderate cumulative CT dose estimates. Median cumulative CT dose estimate was 5.4 mSv (range 0.5-71.1 mSv), and median number of CT scans was 4 (range 3-36). High cumulative CT dose estimates were most common in children with malignant tumors (57.9%, 11/19). High frequency of CT scans was attributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates in children with ventriculoperitoneal shunt (35 in 1 child) and malignant tumors (range 18-49). Moreover, high-dose CT protocols, such as multiphase abdomen CT (median 4.7 mSv) contributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates even in children with a low number of CT scans. Disease group, number of CT scans, and high-dose CT protocols are major contributors to higher cumulative CT dose estimates in children. (orig.)

  3. Preliminary estimates of residence times and apparent ages of ground water in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and water-quality data from a survey of springs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Focazio, Michael J.; Plummer, L. Neil; Bohlke, John K.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Bachman, L. Joseph; Powars, David S.

    1998-01-01

    Knowledge of the residence times of the ground-water systems in Chesapeake Bay watershed helps resource managers anticipate potential delays between implementation of land-management practices and any improve-ments in river and estuary water quality. This report presents preliminary estimates of ground-water residence times and apparent ages of water in the shallow aquifers of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. A simple reservoir model, published data, and analyses of spring water were used to estimate residence times and apparent ages of ground-water discharge. Ranges of aquifer hydraulic characteristics throughout the Bay watershed were derived from published literature and were used to estimate ground-water residence times on the basis of a simple reservoir model. Simple combinations of rock type and physiographic province were used to delineate hydrogeomorphic regions (HGMR?s) for the study area. The HGMR?s are used to facilitate organization and display of the data and analyses. Illustrations depicting the relation of aquifer characteristics and associated residence times as a continuum for each HGMR were developed. In this way, the natural variation of aquifer characteristics can be seen graphically by use of data from selected representative studies. Water samples collected in September and November 1996, from 46 springs throughout the watershed were analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons (CFC?s) to estimate the apparent age of ground water. For comparison purposes, apparent ages of water from springs were calculated assuming piston flow. Additi-onal data are given to estimate apparent ages assuming an exponential distribution of ages in spring discharge. Additionally, results from previous studies of CFC-dating of ground water from other springs and wells in the watershed were compiled. The CFC data, and the data on major ions, nutrients, and nitrogen isotopes in the water collected from the 46 springs are included in this report. The apparent ages of water

  4. Costs and Benefits of Representational Change: Effects of Context on Age and Sex Differences in Symbolic Magnitude Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Clarissa A.; Opfer, John E.

    2008-01-01

    Studies have reported high correlations in accuracy across estimation contexts, robust transfer of estimation training to novel numerical contexts, and adults drawing mistaken analogies between numerical and fractional values. We hypothesized that these disparate findings may reflect the benefits and costs of learning linear representations of…

  5. Estimating age-dependent costs and benefits of roots with contrasting life span: comparing apples and oranges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouma, T.J.; Yanai, R.D.; Elkin, A.D.; Hartmond, U.; Flores-Alva, D.E.; Eissenstat, D.M.

    2001-01-01

    The relation between root age and root function is poorly understood, despite its importance to root longevity. The effect of root age on respiration rates and P-32-uptake kinetics was determined for roots excavated from mature apple and citrus trees (median root life spans of 30 vs 300 d). To evalu

  6. Evaluation of placental thickness as a sonological indicator for estimation of gestational age of foetus in normal singleton pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lovely Kaushal

    2015-05-01

    Conclusion: A linear increase in mean placental thickness with gestational age was observed using correlation analysis in our present study conducted to determine the relationship between placental thickness and gestational age. Placental thickness measured in millimeters increases with gestational age from 11 weeks to 37 weeks. Placental thickness can be used as a predictor of the gestational age, in women in whom the last menstrual period is unreliable or is not known. In instances when femoral length was difficult to measure due to excessive foetal movements, Placental thickness was found to be a reliable alternative biometric measurement in calculating gestational age. [Int J Res Med Sci 2015; 3(5.000: 1213-1218

  7. Age estimates for the buckwheat family Polygonaceae based on sequence data calibrated by fossils and with a focus on the amphi-Pacific Muehlenbeckia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja M Schuster

    Full Text Available The buckwheat family Polygonaceae is a diverse group of plants and is a good model for investigating biogeography, breeding systems, coevolution with symbionts such as ants and fungi, functional trait evolution, hybridization, invasiveness, morphological plasticity, pollen morphology and wood anatomy. The main goal of this study was to obtain age estimates for Polygonaceae by calibrating a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis, using a relaxed molecular clock with fossil data. Based on the age estimates, we also develop hypotheses about the historical biogeography of the Southern Hemisphere group Muehlenbeckia. We are interested in addressing whether vicariance or dispersal could account for the diversification of Muehlenbeckia, which has a "Gondwanan" distribution. Eighty-one species of Polygonaceae were analysed with MrBayes to infer species relationships. One nuclear (nrITS and three chloroplast markers (the trnL-trnF spacer region, matK and ndhF genes were used. The molecular data were also analysed with Beast to estimate divergence times. Seven calibration points including fossil pollen and a leaf fossil of Muehlenbeckia were used to infer node ages. Results of the Beast analyses indicate an age of 110.9 (exponential/lognormal priors/118.7 (uniform priors million years (Myr with an uncertainty interval of (90.7-125.0 Myr for the stem age of Polygonaceae. This age is older than previously thought (Maastrichtian, approximately 65.5-70.6 Myr. The estimated divergence time for Muehlenbeckia is 41.0/41.6 (39.6-47.8 Myr and its crown clade is 20.5/22.3 (14.2-33.5 Myr old. Because the breakup of Gondwana occurred from 95-30 Myr ago, diversification of Muehlenbeckia is best explained by oceanic long-distance and maybe stepping-stone dispersal rather than vicariance. This study is the first to give age estimates for clades of Polygonaceae and functions as a jumping-off point for future studies on the historical biogeography of the family.

  8. Secondary dentine as a sole parameter for age estimation: Comparison and reliability of qualitative and quantitative methods among North Western adult Indians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasbir Arora

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The indestructible nature of teeth against most of the environmental abuses makes its use in disaster victim identification (DVI. The present study has been undertaken to examine the reliability of Gustafson’s qualitative method and Kedici’s quantitative method of measuring secondary dentine for age estimation among North Western adult Indians. 196 (M = 85; F = 111 single rooted teeth were collected from the Department of Oral Health Sciences, PGIMER, Chandigarh. Ground sections were prepared and the amount of secondary dentine formed was scored qualitatively according to Gustafson’s (0–3 scoring system (method 1 and quantitatively following Kedici’s micrometric measurement method (method 2. Out of 196 teeth 180 samples (M = 80; F = 100 were found to be suitable for measuring secondary dentine following Kedici’s method. Absolute mean error of age was calculated by both methodologies. Results clearly showed that in pooled data, method 1 gave an error of ±10.4 years whereas method 2 exhibited an error of approximately ±13 years. A statistically significant difference was noted in absolute mean error of age between two methods of measuring secondary dentine for age estimation. Further, it was also revealed that teeth extracted for periodontal reasons severely decreased the accuracy of Kedici’s method however, the disease had no effect while estimating age by Gustafson’s method. No significant gender differences were noted in the absolute mean error of age by both methods which suggest that there is no need to separate data on the basis of gender.

  9. Age-related and stand-wise estimates of carbon stocks and sequestration in the aboveground coarse wood biomass of wetland forests in the northern Pantanal, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöngart, J.; Arieira, J.; Felfili Fortes, C.; Cezarine de Arruda, E.; Nunes da Cunha, C.

    2011-11-01

    In this study we use allometric models combined with tree ring analysis to estimate carbon stocks and sequestration in the aboveground coarse wood biomass (AGWB) of wetland forests in the Pantanal, located in central South America. In four 1-ha plots in stands characterized by the pioneer tree species Vochysia divergens Pohl (Vochysiaceae) forest inventories (trees ≥10 cm diameter at breast height, D) have been performed and converted to estimates of AGWB by two allometric models using three independent parameters (D, tree height H and wood density ρ). We perform a propagation of measurement errors to estimate uncertainties in the estimates of AGWB. Carbon stocks of AGWB vary from 7.8 ± 1.5 to 97.2 ± 14.4 Mg C ha-1 between the four stands. From models relating tree ages determined by dendrochronological techniques to C-stocks in AGWB we derived estimates for C-sequestration which differs from 0.50 ± 0.03 to 3.34 ± 0.31 Mg C ha-1 yr-1. Maps based on geostatistic techniques indicate the heterogeneous spatial distribution of tree ages and C-stocks of the four studied stands. This distribution is the result of forest dynamics due to the colonizing and retreating of V. divergens and other species associated with pluriannual wet and dry episodes in the Pantanal, respectively. Such information is essential for the management of the cultural landscape of the Pantanal wetlands.

  10. Assessment of the radiographic visibility of the periodontal ligament in the lower third molars for the purpose of forensic age estimation in living individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olze, Andreas; Solheim, Tore; Schulz, Ronald; Kupfer, Michael; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Schmeling, Andreas

    2010-09-01

    The main criterion for dental age estimation in living individuals is the mineralisation of third molars. However, the mineralisation of third molars can be completed before the forensically relevant age of 18 years has been attained. In a material of 1,198 orthopantomograms from 629 females and 569 males aged between 15 and 40 years, the radiographic visibility of the periodontal membrane of fully mineralised third molars was assessed according to stages 0, 1, 2 and 3. Stage 0 first appeared at the age of 17.2 years in females and at the age of 17.6 years in males. Stage 1 was first achieved by females between 18.9 and 20.0 years and by males between 20.1 and 20.2 years. The earliest appearance of stage 2 was between 22.5 and 23.1 years in females and at 22.3 years in males. The occurrence of stage 3 was first found between 24.6 and 25.2 years in females and between 25.4 and 26.2 years in males. If stage 1 is determined, it is, therefore, possible to prove that an individual has already attained the legally relevant age of 18 years. For stages 2 and 3, it can be stated beyond reasonable doubt that a person is over 21 years of age.

  11. Development of a methylation marker set for forensic age estimation using analysis of public methylation data and the Agena Bioscience EpiTYPER system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire-Aradas, A; Phillips, C; Mosquera-Miguel, A; Girón-Santamaría, L; Gómez-Tato, A; Casares de Cal, M; Álvarez-Dios, J; Ansede-Bermejo, J; Torres-Español, M; Schneider, P M; Pośpiech, E; Branicki, W; Carracedo, Á; Lareu, M V

    2016-09-01

    Individual age estimation has the potential to provide key information that could enhance and extend DNA intelligence tools. Following predictive tests for externally visible characteristics developed in recent years, prediction of age could guide police investigations and improve the assessment of age-related phenotype expression patterns such as hair colour changes and early onset of male pattern baldness. DNA methylation at CpG positions has emerged as the most promising DNA tests to ascertain the individual age of the donor of a biological contact trace. Although different methodologies are available to detect DNA methylation, EpiTYPER technology (Agena Bioscience, formerly Sequenom) provides useful characteristics that can be applied as a discovery tool in localized regions of the genome. In our study, a total of twenty-two candidate genomic regions, selected from the assessment of publically available data from the Illumina HumanMethylation 450 BeadChip, had a total of 177 CpG sites with informative methylation patterns that were subsequently investigated in detail. From the methylation analyses made, a novel age prediction model based on a multivariate quantile regression analysis was built using the seven highest age-correlated loci of ELOVL2, ASPA, PDE4C, FHL2, CCDC102B, C1orf132 and chr16:85395429. The detected methylation levels in these loci provide a median absolute age prediction error of ±3.07years and a percentage of prediction error relative to the age of 6.3%. We report the predictive performance of the developed model using cross validation of a carefully age-graded training set of 725 European individuals and a test set of 52 monozygotic twin pairs. The multivariate quantile regression age predictor, using the CpG sites selected in this study, has been placed in the open-access Snipper forensic classification website. PMID:27337627

  12. Accuracy of parent-reported information for estimating prevalence of overweight and obesity in a race-ethnically diverse pediatric clinic population aged 3 to 12

    OpenAIRE

    Gordon, Nancy P.; Mellor, R. Grant

    2015-01-01

    Background There is conflicting evidence about the accuracy of estimates of childhood obesity based on parent-reported data. We assessed accuracy of child height, weight, and overweight/obesity classification in a pediatric clinic population based on parent data to learn whether accuracy differs by child age and race/ethnicity. Methods Parents of patients ages 3–12 (n = 1,119) completed a waiting room questionnaire that asked about their child’s height and weight. Child’s height and weight wa...

  13. Multiple Comorbid Conditions among Middle-Aged and Elderly Hemophilia Patients: Prevalence Estimates and Implications for Future Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aroub A. Khleif

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Advances in hemophilia care and treatment have led to increases in the life expectancy among hemophiliacs. As a result, persons with hemophilia are reaching an older age and experiencing various age-related health conditions never seen before in this population. Aim. To determine the prevalence of comorbidities among middle-aged and elderly hemophilia A and hemophilia B patients. Methods. Retrospective chart review among all hemophilia patients, who attended the Gulf States Hemophilia and Thrombophilia Center. Results. All patients had at least one comorbid condition other than hemophilia, and the majority had between 3 and 6 comorbidities. The most common conditions identified were chronic hepatitis C, hypertension, HIV, chronic arthropathy, and overweight/obesity. Conclusions. Since persons with comorbidities are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and require greater care in managing their health needs, caring for aging hemophiliacs is likely to pose various social and economic challenges for both patients and providers.

  14. Estimating Geriatric Mortality after Injury Using Age, Injury Severity, and Performance of a Transfusion: The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Frank Z.; Wolf, Steven E.; Nakonezny, Paul A.; Minhajuddin, Abu; Rhodes, Ramona L.; Paulk, M. Elizabeth; Phelan, Herb A

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background: A tool to determine the probability of mortality for severely injured geriatric patients is needed. Objective: We sought to create an easily calculated geriatric trauma prognostic score based on parameters available at the bedside to aid in mortality probability determination. Methods: All patients ≥65 years of age were identified from our Level I trauma center's registry between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2013. Measurements included age, Injury Severity score (ISS)...

  15. 一种基于人脸图像的年龄估计方法%An Age Estimation Method Based on Facial Images

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗佳佳; 蔡超

    2012-01-01

    Research on age estimation has a significant impact on Human-Computer Interaction. In this paper, an age estimation method based on facial images is proposed. The new method establishes a face anthropometry template based on craniofacial growth pattern theory to obtain facial geometric proportion features, and extracts texture features of facial local area using fractional differential approach, combines these two kinds of features to form personal age feature vectors. Machine learning methods such as clustering algorithms we used to obtain age-feature knowledge matrix, and in age estimating, such knowledge matrix voting on estimate age of input facial image. Experimental results show that the estimation error is small and the classification accuracy is close to human judgment.%有关年龄估计的研究在人机交互领域有着非常重要的意义.该文提出一种基于人脸图像的年龄估计方法,该方法首先基于颅面成长模式理论建立人脸测量模板,在此模板上计算面部几何比例特征,然后运用分数阶微分提取人脸局部区域的纹理特征,结合这两类特征构成个体年龄特征向量;通过聚类学习的方法训练年龄特征向量获得年龄-特征映射矩阵,最后由此矩阵表决出输人人脸的估计年龄.实验结果表明,基于这两种特征构建的年龄估计模型可以获得较好的年龄估计结果,年龄误差较小,分类准确率接近人的主观判断结果.

  16. Estimation of the stand ages of tropical secondary forests after shifting cultivation based on the combination of WorldView-2 and time-series Landsat images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiki, Shogoro; Okada, Kei-ichi; Nishio, Shogo; Kitayama, Kanehiro

    2016-09-01

    We developed a new method to estimate stand ages of secondary vegetation in the Bornean montane zone, where local people conduct traditional shifting cultivation and protected areas are surrounded by patches of recovering secondary vegetation of various ages. Identifying stand ages at the landscape level is critical to improve conservation policies. We combined a high-resolution satellite image (WorldView-2) with time-series Landsat images. We extracted stand ages (the time elapsed since the most recent slash and burn) from a change-detection analysis with Landsat time-series images and superimposed the derived stand ages on the segments classified by object-based image analysis using WorldView-2. We regarded stand ages as a response variable, and object-based metrics as independent variables, to develop regression models that explain stand ages. Subsequently, we classified the vegetation of the target area into six age units and one rubber plantation unit (1-3 yr, 3-5 yr, 5-7 yr, 7-30 yr, 30-50 yr, >50 yr and 'rubber plantation') using regression models and linear discriminant analyses. Validation demonstrated an accuracy of 84.3%. Our approach is particularly effective in classifying highly dynamic pioneer vegetation younger than 7 years into 2-yr intervals, suggesting that rapid changes in vegetation canopies can be detected with high accuracy. The combination of a spectral time-series analysis and object-based metrics based on high-resolution imagery enabled the classification of dynamic vegetation under intensive shifting cultivation and yielded an informative land cover map based on stand ages.

  17. Estimating the lifetime economic burden of stroke according to the age of onset in South Korea: a cost of illness study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suh Hae Sun

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The recently-observed trend towards younger stroke patients in Korea raises economic concerns, including erosion of the workforce. We compared per-person lifetime costs of stroke according to the age of stroke onset from the Korean societal perspective. Methods A state-transition Markov model consisted of three health states ('post primary stroke event', 'alive post stroke', and 'dead' was developed to simulate the natural history of stroke. The transition probabilities for fatal and non-fatal recurrent stroke by age and gender and for non-stroke causes of death were derived from the national epidemiologic data of the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Services and data from the Danish Monitoring Trends in Cardiovascular Disease study. We used an incidence-based approach to estimate the long-term costs of stroke. The model captured stroke-related costs including costs within the health sector, patients' out-of-pocket costs outside the health sector, and costs resulting from loss of productivity due to morbidity and premature death using a human capital approach. Average insurance-covered costs occurring within the health sector were estimated from the National Health Insurance claims database. Other costs were estimated based on the national epidemiologic data and literature. All costs are presented in 2008 Korean currency values (Korean won = KRW. Results The lifetime costs of stroke were estimated to be: 200.7, 81.9, and 16.4 million Korean won (1,200 KRW is approximately equal to one US dollar for men who suffered a first stroke at age 45, 55 and 65 years, respectively, and 75.7, 39.2, and 19.3 million KRW for women at the same age. While stroke occurring among Koreans aged 45 to 64 years accounted for only 30% of the total disease incidence, this age group incurred 75% of the total national lifetime costs of stroke. Conclusions A higher lifetime burden and increasing incidence of stroke among younger Koreans

  18. Volcanic Event Recurrence Rate Model (VERRM): Incorporating Radiometric Ages, Volcanic Stratigraphy and Paleomagnetic Data into a Monte Carlo Simulation to Estimate Uncertainty in Recurrence Rate through Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J. A.; Richardson, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Traditional methods used to calculate recurrence rate of volcanism, such as linear regression, maximum likelihood and Weibull-Poisson distributions, are effective at estimating recurrence rate and confidence level, but these methods are unable to estimate uncertainty in recurrence rate through time. We propose a new model for estimating recurrence rate and uncertainty, Volcanic Event Recurrence Rate Model. VERRM is an algorithm that incorporates radiometric ages, volcanic stratigraphy and paleomagnetic data into a Monte Carlo simulation, generating acceptable ages for each event. Each model run is used to calculate recurrence rate using a moving average window. These rates are binned into discrete time intervals and plotted using the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles. We present recurrence rates from Cima Volcanic Field (CA), Yucca Mountain (NV) and Arsia Mons (Mars). Results from Cima Volcanic Field illustrate how several K-Ar ages with large uncertainties obscure three well documented volcanic episodes. Yucca Mountain results are similar to published rates and illustrate the use of using the same radiometric age for multiple events in a spatially defined cluster. Arsia Mons results show a clear waxing/waning of volcanism through time. VERRM output may be used for a spatio-temporal model or to plot uncertainty in quantifiable parameters such as eruption volume or geochemistry. Alternatively, the algorithm may be reworked to constrain geomagnetic chrons. VERRM is implemented in Python 2.7 and takes advantage of NumPy, SciPy and matplotlib libraries for optimization and quality plotting presentation. A typical Monte Carlo simulation of 40 volcanic events takes a few minutes to couple hours to complete, depending on the bin size used to assign ages.

  19. Hospital-based surveillance to estimate the burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children below five years of age in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anca, Ioana Alina; Furtunescu, Florentina Ligia; Pleşca, Doina; Streinu-Cercel, Adrian; Rugină, Sorin; Holl, Katsiaryna

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Rotavirus (RV) is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE), affecting 95% of children below five years of age. Methods In this prospective, multi-center study, children below five years of age who were hospitalized or those who visited the emergency room (ER) due to AGE or who developed AGE at least 48 hours after hospitalization (nosocomial infection) and had a RV-positive stool sample were included (n=1,222). RV-positive samples were genotyped by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Results RV test results were available for 1,212 children (hospitalizations [n=677], ER visits [n=398] and nosocomial AGE cases [n=137]). Proportions of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) hospitalizations and ER visits were 51.70% (350/677; 95%CI: 47.86–55.52) and 36.18% (144/398; 95%CI: 31.45–41.12), respectively. Overall, 45.95% (494/1075) of all community-acquired AGE cases were due to RV. High numbers of RVGE cases were recorded between January and March. Most common genotypes were G9P[8] (34.27%) followed by G4P[8] (25.83%) and G1P[8] (23.02%). Of all community-acquired RVGE cases, the highest number of cases was observed in children aged 12–23 months. Median duration of hospitalization among RV-positive subjects was six days (range: 2–31 days). Incidence of nosocomial RVGE was 0.52 (95%CI: 0.45–0.60) cases per 1,000 child-days hospitalization. Median duration for additional hospitalization due to nosocomial RVGE was five days (range: 1–10). The highest burden of nosocomial RVGE was observed in children aged 12–23 months (42.34%, 58/137). Our findings confirm a high burden of acute RVGE disease in Romania and provide useful data to support the implementation of RV vaccination in Romania. Trial registration NCT01253967 PMID:24967217

  20. An improved model to estimate trapping parameters in polymeric materials and its application on normal and aged low-density polyethylenes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trapping parameters can be considered as one of the important attributes to describe polymeric materials. In the present paper, a more accurate charge dynamics model has been developed, which takes account of charge dynamics in both volts-on and off stage into simulation. By fitting with measured charge data with the highest R-square value, trapping parameters together with injection barrier of both normal and aged low-density polyethylene samples were estimated using the improved model. The results show that, after long-term ageing process, the injection barriers of both electrons and holes is lowered, overall trap depth is shallower, and trap density becomes much greater. Additionally, the changes in parameters for electrons are more sensitive than those of holes after ageing

  1. An improved model to estimate trapping parameters in polymeric materials and its application on normal and aged low-density polyethylenes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Ning, E-mail: nl4g12@soton.ac.uk; He, Miao; Alghamdi, Hisham; Chen, George [School of Electronic and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton (United Kingdom); Fu, Mingli; Li, Ruihai; Hou, Shuai [Electric Power Research Institute of China Southern Power Grid, Guangzhou (China)

    2015-08-14

    Trapping parameters can be considered as one of the important attributes to describe polymeric materials. In the present paper, a more accurate charge dynamics model has been developed, which takes account of charge dynamics in both volts-on and off stage into simulation. By fitting with measured charge data with the highest R-square value, trapping parameters together with injection barrier of both normal and aged low-density polyethylene samples were estimated using the improved model. The results show that, after long-term ageing process, the injection barriers of both electrons and holes is lowered, overall trap depth is shallower, and trap density becomes much greater. Additionally, the changes in parameters for electrons are more sensitive than those of holes after ageing.

  2. Age-related differences in time-based prospective memory: The role of time estimation in the clock monitoring strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanneste, Sandrine; Baudouin, Alexia; Bouazzaoui, Badiâa; Taconnat, Laurence

    2016-07-01

    Time-based prospective memory (TBPM) is required when it is necessary to remember to perform an action at a specific future point in time. This type of memory has been found to be particularly sensitive to ageing, probably because it requires a self-initiated response at a specific time. In this study, we sought to examine the involvement of temporal processes in the time monitoring strategy, which has been demonstrated to be a decisive factor in TBPM efficiency. We compared the performance of young and older adults in a TBPM task in which they had to press a response button every minute while categorising words. The design allowed participants to monitor time by checking a clock whenever they decided. Participants also completed a classic time-production task and several executive tasks assessing inhibition, updating and shifting processes. Our results confirm an age-related lack of accuracy in prospective memory performance, which seems to be related to a deficient strategic use of time monitoring. This could in turn be partially explained by age-related temporal deficits, as evidenced in the duration production task. These findings suggest that studies designed to investigate the age effect in TBPM tasks should consider the contribution of temporal mechanisms. PMID:26247302

  3. A multiple-approach radiometric age estimate for the Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruptions, New Zealand, with implications for the MIS 4/3 boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C.J.N.; Rhoades, D.A.; Lanphere, M.A.; Calvert, A.T.; Houghton, B.F.; Weaver, S.D.; Cole, J.W.

    2007-01-01

    Pyroclastic fall deposits of the paired Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruptions from the Taupo Volcanic Zone (New Zealand) combine to form a widespread isochronous horizon over much of northern New Zealand and the southwest Pacific. This horizon is important for correlating climatic and environmental changes during the Last Glacial period, but has been the subject of numerous disparate age estimates between 35.1??2.8 and 71??6 ka (all errors are 1 s.d.), obtained by a variety of techniques. A potassium-argon (K-Ar) age of 64??4 ka was previously determined on bracketing lavas at Mayor Island volcano, offshore from the Taupo Volcanic Zone. We present a new, more-precise 40Ar/39Ar age determination on a lava flow on Mayor Island, that shortly post-dates the Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat fall deposits, of 58.5??1.1 ka. This value, coupled with existing ages from underlying lavas, yield a new estimate for the age of the combined eruptions of 61.0??1.4 ka, which is consistent with U-Th disequilibrium model-age data for zircons from the Rotoiti deposits. Direct 40Ar/39Ar age determinations of plagioclase and biotite from the Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruption products yield variable values between 49.6??2.8 and 125.3??10.0 ka, with the scatter attributed to low radiogenic Ar yields, and/or alteration, and/or inheritance of xenocrystic material with inherited Ar. Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat fall deposits occur in New Zealand in association with palynological indicators of mild climate, attributed to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and thus used to suggest an age that is post-59 ka. The natures of the criteria used to define the MIS 4/3 boundary in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, however, imply that the new 61 ka age for the Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat eruption deposits will provide the inverse, namely, a more accurate isochronous marker for correlating diverse changes across the MIS 4/3 boundary in the southwest Pacific. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Evaluation of alternative age-based methods for estimating relative abundance from survey data in relation to assessment models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper Willestofte; Nielsen, Anders; Kristensen, Kasper

    2014-01-01

    Indices of abundance from fishery-independent trawl surveys constitute an important source of information for many fish stock assessments. Indices are often calculated using area stratified sample means on age-disaggregated data, and finally treated in stock assessment models as independent...... observations. We evaluate a series of alternative methods for calculating indices of abundance from trawl survey data (delta-lognormal, delta-gamma, and Tweedie using Generalized Additive Models) as well as different error structures for these indices when used as input in an age-based stock assessment model...... different indices produced. The stratified mean method is found much more imprecise than the alternatives based on GAMs, which are found to be similar. Having time-varying index variances is found to be of minor importance, whereas the independence assumption is not only violated but has significant impact...

  5. Estimation of the Age and Amount of Brown Rice Plant Hoppers Based on Bionic Electronic Nose Use

    OpenAIRE

    Sai Xu; Zhiyan Zhou; Huazhong Lu; Xiwen Luo; Yubin Lan; Yang Zhang; Yanfang Li

    2014-01-01

    The brown rice plant hopper (BRPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stal), is one of the most important insect pests affecting rice and causes serious damage to the yield and quality of rice plants in Asia. This study used bionic electronic nose technology to sample BRPH volatiles, which vary in age and amount. Principal component analysis (PCA), linear discrimination analysis (LDA), probabilistic neural network (PNN), BP neural network (BPNN) and loading analysis (Loadings) techniques were used to analy...

  6. Cuffless Blood Pressure Estimation with Photoplethysmograph Signal by Classifying on Account of Cardiovascular Characteristics of Old Aged Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Satomi; Oguri, Koji

    Blood Pressure (BP) is a very important factor for monitoring the cardiovascular condition. In general, non-invasive BP measurements need a cuff. However, such measurement techniques can hardly monitor BP continuously. Recently it has gotten easier to measure biological signals daily because sensor technologies have well-developed, and because of availability of many kinds of miniaturized measurement instruments consuming less power. This study suggests a method of estimating Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP) with a wearable sensor instead of a cuff. In particular, our study depends on only one pulse wave signal detected by a Photoplethysmograph (PPG) sensor since the PPG sensor is very small. Moreover, the human subject just wears the sensor on the surface of the body to measure the signal. Cardiovascular peculiarities keep changing as people get older. Additionally, the peculiarities vary among individuals according to the advanced rate of arteriosclerosis. Hence, it is necessary for estimating the SBP to divide the data into several classes, by parameters that relate to individual cardiovascular peculiarities. In this study, the regression equation of SBP was calculated from individual information and from features of the PPG signal in each class. As a result, the estimation accuracy was improved. This technique would make cuffless SBP monitoring become more convenient and helpful as only one device is required for monitoring, which is smaller than traditional measurements.

  7. Age-related and stand-wise estimates of carbon stocks and sequestration in the aboveground coarse wood biomass of wetland forests in the northern Pantanal, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schöngart

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study we use allometric models combined with tree ring analysis to estimate carbon stocks and sequestration in the aboveground coarse wood biomass (AGWB of wetland forests in the Pantanal, located in central South America. In four 1-ha plots in stands characterized by the pioneer tree species Vochysia divergens Pohl (Vochysiaceae forest inventories (trees ≥10 cm diameter at breast height, D have been performed and converted to estimates of AGWB by two allometric models using three independent parameters (D, tree height H and wood density ρ. We perform a propagation of measurement errors to estimate uncertainties in the estimates of AGWB. Carbon stocks of AGWB vary from 7.8 ± 1.5 to 97.2 ± 14.4 Mg C ha−1 between the four stands. From models relating tree ages determined by dendrochronological techniques to C-stocks in AGWB we derived estimates for C-sequestration which differs from 0.50 ± 0.03 to 3.34 ± 0.31 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. Maps based on geostatistic techniques indicate the heterogeneous spatial distribution of tree ages and C-stocks of the four studied stands. This distribution is the result of forest dynamics due to the colonizing and retreating of V. divergens and other species associated with pluriannual wet and dry episodes in the Pantanal, respectively. Such information is essential for the management of the cultural landscape of the Pantanal wetlands.

  8. Estimation of the age and amount of brown rice plant hoppers based on bionic electronic nose use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Sai; Zhou, Zhiyan; Lu, Huazhong; Luo, Xiwen; Lan, Yubin; Zhang, Yang; Li, Yanfang

    2014-09-29

    The brown rice plant hopper (BRPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stal), is one of the most important insect pests affecting rice and causes serious damage to the yield and quality of rice plants in Asia. This study used bionic electronic nose technology to sample BRPH volatiles, which vary in age and amount. Principal component analysis (PCA), linear discrimination analysis (LDA), probabilistic neural network (PNN), BP neural network (BPNN) and loading analysis (Loadings) techniques were used to analyze the sampling data. The results indicate that the PCA and LDA classification ability is poor, but the LDA classification displays superior performance relative to PCA. When a PNN was used to evaluate the BRPH age and amount, the classification rates of the training set were 100% and 96.67%, respectively, and the classification rates of the test set were 90.67% and 64.67%, respectively. When BPNN was used for the evaluation of the BRPH age and amount, the classification accuracies of the training set were 100% and 48.93%, respectively, and the classification accuracies of the test set were 96.67% and 47.33%, respectively. Loadings for BRPH volatiles indicate that the main elements of BRPHs' volatiles are sulfur-containing organics, aromatics, sulfur-and chlorine-containing organics and nitrogen oxides, which provide a reference for sensors chosen when exploited in specialized BRPH identification devices. This research proves the feasibility and broad application prospects of bionic electronic noses for BRPH recognition.

  9. Estimating past hepatitis C infection risk from reported risk factor histories: implications for imputing age of infection and modeling fibrosis progression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Busch Michael P

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is prevalent and often causes hepatic fibrosis, which can progress to cirrhosis and cause liver cancer or liver failure. Study of fibrosis progression often relies on imputing the time of infection, often as the reported age of first injection drug use. We sought to examine the accuracy of such imputation and implications for modeling factors that influence progression rates. Methods We analyzed cross-sectional data on hepatitis C antibody status and reported risk factor histories from two large studies, the Women's Interagency HIV Study and the Urban Health Study, using modern survival analysis methods for current status data to model past infection risk year by year. We compared fitted distributions of past infection risk to reported age of first injection drug use. Results Although injection drug use appeared to be a very strong risk factor, models for both studies showed that many subjects had considerable probability of having been infected substantially before or after their reported age of first injection drug use. Persons reporting younger age of first injection drug use were more likely to have been infected after, and persons reporting older age of first injection drug use were more likely to have been infected before. Conclusion In cross-sectional studies of fibrosis progression where date of HCV infection is estimated from risk factor histories, modern methods such as multiple imputation should be used to account for the substantial uncertainty about when infection occurred. The models presented here can provide the inputs needed by such methods. Using reported age of first injection drug use as the time of infection in studies of fibrosis progression is likely to produce a spuriously strong association of younger age of infection with slower rate of progression.

  10. FETAL GESTATIONAL AGE ESTIMATION BY FETAL FOOT LENGTH MEASUREMENT AND FETAL FEMUR TO FOOT LENGTH RATIO IN INDIAN POPULATION - A PROSPECTIVE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukta

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Multiple parameters are in use for the accurate assessment of the gestational age by ultrasound, but the literature suggests that fetal foot length can be used to estimate gestational age, when other parameters are not available for measurement. Foetal femur/ foot length ratio can help in differentiating the foeti that have dysplastic limb reduction, from those whose limbs are short because of constitutional factors/IUGR. A prospective study was done to measure the fetal foot length for gestational age and to evaluate fetal femur to foot length ratio in pregnant women of 16-37 weeks gestation. MATERIALS & METHOD: One hundred and three normal singleton pregnant women of 16-37 weeks gestation were examined for routine obstetrics ultrasound. In these patients fetal foot length measurements were taken and the gestational age was assessed. In addition, fetal femur length to foot length ratio was calculated in each patient. RESULTS/OBSERVATION: Linear relationship between foot length and gestational age was present with a R2 value of 0.90 (p < than 0.001 and the fetal femur length/foot length ratio was found to be more than or equal to 0.92.The foot length can be a reliable parameter for use in assessment of gestational age and as most skeletal dysplasias spare the feet, the fetal femur length/foot length ratio can be used to detect most skeletal dysplasia. CONCLUSIONS: Foetal foot length is a reliable parameter for assessment of gestational age and femur length/foot length ratio is approximately 1 and a ratio of < 0.92 shall be useful in the detection of most skeletal dysplasia.

  11. AB226. The relationship between self-estimated intravaginal ejaculatory latency time and International Prostate Symptom Score in middle-aged men complaining of ejaculating prematurely in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X; Tang, D

    2016-01-01

    Objective We performed this study to evaluate the association between International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and intravaginal ejaculatory latency time (IELT) in men with the four premature ejaculation (PE) syndromes. Methods From June 2012 to January 2014, a total of 690 men aged 40–59 years complaining of ejaculating prematurely and another 452 male healthy subjects of the same age without these complaints were included in this study. Men with the complaints of ejaculating prematurely were classified as one of the four PE syndromes: lifelong PE, acquired PE (APE), variable PE, and subjective PE. Each of them completed a detailed questionnaire including information on demographics, medical and sexual history (e.g., self-estimated IELT), IPSS, and International Index of Erectile Function-5. Results Men complaining of ejaculating prematurely reported higher IPSS (11.2±6.0 vs. 5.5±3.3) and shorter self-estimated IELT (2.1±1.6 vs. 4.8±3.3 min) than men without complaints (Pejaculating prematurely reported worse IPSS than men without these complaints. Self-estimated IELT was negatively associated with IPSS in men complaining of ejaculating prematurely, and the correlation was the strongest in men with APE.

  12. Epiphyseal union at the innominate and lower limb in a modern Portuguese skeletal sample, and age estimation in adolescent and young adult male and female skeletons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Hugo F V

    2008-02-01

    This study documents the timing of epiphyseal union at the innominate, femur, tibia, and fibula in a sample of modern Portuguese skeletons. The sample was taken from the Lisbon documented skeletal collection and it is comprised of 57 females and 49 males between the ages of 9 and 25. Individuals are mostly representative of the middle-to-low socioeconomic segment of the early 20th century Lisbon population. A total of 18 anatomical locations were examined for epiphyseal union using a three-stage scheme: 1) no union; 2) partial union; and 3) completed union, all traces of fusion having disappeared. Results show that females are ahead of males by 1-2 years and provide similar age ranges for the stages of union than previous studies. Some variations between studies can be explained by methodological differences between dry bone and radiographic observations. However, a review of the literature indicates that socioeconomic status of a given population seems to be of decisive importance to the rate of ossification and most of the differences in skeletal maturation across studies and populations can probably be ascribed to different levels of social and economic development of the societies in which the individuals lived. Although the effects of socioeconomic status in skeletal maturation are greater during childhood than in adolescence, as to make the timing of epiphyseal union a reliable estimate of age at death, they are not negligible and age estimates should take into account the likely socioeconomic status of the individual, whose remains are under examination. PMID:18044694

  13. Estimated age and gender profile of individuals missed by a home-based HIV testing and counselling campaign in a Botswana community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: It would be useful to understand which populations are not reached by home-based HIV-1 testing and counselling (HTC to improve strategies aimed at linking these individuals to care and reducing rates of onward HIV transmission. Methods: We present the results of a baseline home-based HTC (HBHTC campaign aimed at counselling and testing residents aged 16 to 64 for HIV in the north-eastern sector of Mochudi, a community in Botswana with about 44,000 inhabitants. Collected data were compared with population references for Botswana, the United Nations (UN estimates based on the National Census data and the Botswana AIDS Impact Survey IV (BAIS-IV. Analyzed data and references were stratified by age and gender. Results: A total of 6238 age-eligible residents were tested for HIV-1; 1247 (20.0%; 95% CI 19.0 to 21.0% were found to be HIV positive (23.7% of women vs. 13.4% of men. HIV-1 prevalence peaked at 44% in 35- to 39-year-old women and 32% in 40- to 44-year-old men. A lower HIV prevalence rate, 10.9% (95% CI 9.5 to 12.5%, was found among individuals tested for the first time. A significant gender gap was evident in all analyzed subsets. The existing HIV transmission network was analyzed by combining phylogenetic mapping and household structure. Between 62.4 and 71.8% of all HIV-positive individuals had detectable virus. When compared with the UN and BAIS-IV estimates, the proportion of men missed by the testing campaign (48.5%; 95% CI 47.0 to 50.0% was significantly higher than the proportion of missed women (14.2%; 95% CI 13.2 to 15.3%; p<0.0001. The estimated proportion of missed men peaked at about 60% in the age group 30 to 39 years old. The proportions of missed women were substantially smaller, at approximately 28% within the age groups 30 to 34 and 45 to 49 years old. Conclusions: The HBHTC campaign seems to be an efficient tool for reaching individuals who have never been tested previously in southern African communities

  14. Application of hydrogeology and groundwater-age estimates to assess the travel time of groundwater at the site of a landfill to the Mahomet Aquifer, near Clinton, Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Robert T.; Buszka, Paul M.

    2016-03-02

    The U.S. Geological Survey used interpretations of hydrogeologic conditions and tritium-based groundwater age estimates to assess the travel time of groundwater at a landfill site near Clinton, Illinois (the “Clinton site”) where a chemical waste unit (CWU) was proposed to be within the Clinton landfill unit #3 (CLU#3). Glacial deposits beneath the CWU consist predominantly of low-permeability silt- and clay-rich till interspersed with thin (typically less than 2 feet in thickness) layers of more permeable deposits, including the Upper and Lower Radnor Till Sands and the Organic Soil unit. These glacial deposits are about 170 feet thick and overlie the Mahomet Sand Member of the Banner Formation. The Mahomet aquifer is composed of the Mahomet Sand Member and is used for water supply in much of east-central Illinois.Eight tritium analyses of water from seven wells were used to evaluate the overall age of recharge to aquifers beneath the Clinton site. Groundwater samples were collected from six monitoring wells on or adjacent to the CLU#3 that were open to glacial deposits above the Mahomet aquifer (the upper and lower parts of the Radnor Till Member and the Organic Soil unit) and one proximal production well (approximately 0.5 miles from the CLU#3) that is screened in the Mahomet aquifer. The tritium-based age estimates were computed with a simplifying, piston-flow assumption: that groundwater moves in discrete packets to the sampled interval by advection, without hydrodynamic dispersion or mixing.Tritium concentrations indicate a recharge age of at least 59 years (pre-1953 recharge) for water sampled from deposits below the upper part of the Radnor Till Member at the CLU#3, with older water expected at progressively greater depth in the tills. The largest tritium concentration from a well sampled by this study (well G53S; 0.32 ± 0.10 tritium units) was in groundwater from a sand deposit in the upper part of the Radnor Till Member; the shallowest permeable unit

  15. Epidemiological burden estimates for pathologies with a nonconstant risk: an application to HCV in Italy according to age, Metavir score, and genotype

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancusi, Rossella Letizia; Andreoni, Massimo; d’Angela, Daniela; Sarrecchia, Cesare; Spandonaro, Federico

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Between western European countries, the hepatitis C virus (HCV) endemic is highest in Italy. The main objective of this paper is to estimate the endemic diffusion of hepatitis C at the national level and by geographical area, with an extrapolation at the regional level and by uniform cohorts of subjects (by sex and year of birth). The secondary objective is a stratification by gravity of the estimated statistical figures to provide an overview of possible targets of the new anti-HCV treatments. PubMed and the Cochrane Library were searched for relevant Italian populations studies regarding HCV prevalence. Random and fixed effect models were used for pooling data. To develop the epidemiological model, a meta-analysis of studies of Italian populations and the explicit consideration of the changes in the etiology of the disease in different cohorts (by year of birth) of population and the impact of effective treatments that have been introduced since the 1990s. A Markovian transition model, which is based on the distribution of HCV+ and HCV Ribonucleic Acid (RNA)+ subjects, provides a plausible assessment of the Italian situation. The Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology recommendations/statements were followed. In 2014, 1569,215 HCV+ subjects (95% credible interval [CrI]: 1202,630–2021,261) were estimated in Italy, with a 2.58% prevalence (95% CrI: 1.98%–3.33%). A total of 828,884 HCV RNA+ subjects (95% CrI: 615,892–1081,123), which is equal to a 1.36% prevalence (95% CrI: 1.01%–1.78%), is higher in southern Italy and the islands (1.9%) than in central–northern Italy (1.1%). The predominance of adult and elderly subjects, with an old or very old infection, inevitably entails a significant number of HCV RNA+ subjects in the advanced stages of the illness. According to our estimates, approximately 400,000 subjects have cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, and hepatocarcinoma, with a median age of 70 years. The model aims to support

  16. Bone age estimation and prediction of final height in patients with {beta}-thalassaemia major: a comparison between the two most common methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christoforidis, Athanasios; Katzos, George; Athanassiou-Metaxa, Miranda [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 1st Paediatric Department, Thessaloniki (Greece); Badouraki, Maria [Ippokratio Hospital, Paediatric Radiology Department, Thessaloniki (Greece)

    2007-12-15

    Thalassaemic patients are in need of frequent assessment of bone age because of growth failure and pubertal disorders. To compare the ''rapid'' Greulich and Pyle (G and P) method with the third edition of the Tanner and Whitehouse (TW3) method for determining skeletal maturity and predicting final height in thalassaemic patients. A total of 191 radiographs from 58 patients (28 male, 30 female) were retrospectively evaluated by two investigators, one for each method. In 47 radiographs from 15 patients having attained their adult height, predicted final height was calculated according to each method. The mean bone ages determined by both the G and P and TW3 methods were lower than mean chronological age, although the differences were not statistically significant (10.04 {+-} 3.69 years and 9.98 {+-} 3.39 years vs. 10.78 {+-} 3.96 years, respectively). Both methods had a tendency to over-estimate final height. Overall, the TW3 method seemed to be more accurate than the G and P method (mean absolute error 3.21 {+-} 2.51 years vs. 3.99 {+-} 2.99 years, respectively, P=0.048). The same method should be used when serial assessments are performed, as both methods provide similarly reliable, although not equivalent, results. The TW3 height prediction method seemed to be more accurate in patients with {beta}-thalassaemia major than the G and P method, albeit with a large confidence interval. (orig.)

  17. Bone age estimation and prediction of final height in patients with β-thalassaemia major: a comparison between the two most common methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thalassaemic patients are in need of frequent assessment of bone age because of growth failure and pubertal disorders. To compare the ''rapid'' Greulich and Pyle (G and P) method with the third edition of the Tanner and Whitehouse (TW3) method for determining skeletal maturity and predicting final height in thalassaemic patients. A total of 191 radiographs from 58 patients (28 male, 30 female) were retrospectively evaluated by two investigators, one for each method. In 47 radiographs from 15 patients having attained their adult height, predicted final height was calculated according to each method. The mean bone ages determined by both the G and P and TW3 methods were lower than mean chronological age, although the differences were not statistically significant (10.04 ± 3.69 years and 9.98 ± 3.39 years vs. 10.78 ± 3.96 years, respectively). Both methods had a tendency to over-estimate final height. Overall, the TW3 method seemed to be more accurate than the G and P method (mean absolute error 3.21 ± 2.51 years vs. 3.99 ± 2.99 years, respectively, P=0.048). The same method should be used when serial assessments are performed, as both methods provide similarly reliable, although not equivalent, results. The TW3 height prediction method seemed to be more accurate in patients with β-thalassaemia major than the G and P method, albeit with a large confidence interval. (orig.)

  18. Estimating biomass of mixed and uneven-aged forests using spectral data and a hybrid model combining regression trees and linear models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    López-Serrano PM

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Sierra Madre Occidental mountain range (Durango, Mexico is of great ecological interest because of the high degree of environmental heterogeneity in the area. The objective of the present study was to estimate the biomass of mixed and uneven-aged forests in the Sierra Madre Occidental by using Landsat-5 TM spectral data and forest inventory data. We used the ATCOR3® atmospheric and topographic correction module to convert remotely sensed imagery digital signals to surface reflectance values. The usual approach of modeling stand variables by using multiple linear regression was compared with a hybrid model developed in two steps: in the first step a regression tree was used to obtain an initial classification of homogeneous biomass groups, and multiple linear regression models were then fitted to each node of the pruned regression tree. Cross-validation of the hybrid model explained 72.96% of the observed stand biomass variation, with a reduction in the RMSE of 25.47% with respect to the estimates yielded by the linear model fitted to the complete database. The most important variables for the binary classification process in the regression tree were the albedo, the corrected readings of the short-wave infrared band of the satellite (2.08-2.35 µm and the topographic moisture index. We used the model output to construct a map for estimating biomass in the study area, which yielded values of between 51 and 235 Mg ha-1. The use of regression trees in combination with stepwise regression of corrected satellite imagery proved a reliable method for estimating forest biomass.

  19. Age-specific interval breast cancers in Japan. Estimation of the proper sensitivity of screening using a population-based cancer registry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The age-specific sensitivity of a screening program was investigated using a population-based cancer registry as a source of false-negative cancer cases. A population-based screening program for breast cancer was run using either clinical breast examinations (CBE) alone or mammography combined with CBE in the Miyagi Prefecture from 1997 to 2002. Interval cancers were newly identified by linking the screening records to the population-based cancer registry to estimate the number of false-negative cases of screening program. Among 112071 women screened by mammography combined with CBE, the number of detected cancers, false-negative cases and the sensitivity were 289, 22 and 92.9%, respectively, based on the reports from participating municipalities. The number of newly found false-negative cases and corrected sensitivity when using the registry were 34 and 83.8%, respectively. In detected cancers, the sensitivity of screening by mammography combined with CBE in women ranging from 40 to 49 years of age based on a population-based cancer registry was much lower than that in women 50-59 and 60-69 years of age (40-49: 18, 71.4%, 50-59: 19, 85.8%, 60-69: 19, 87.2%). These data suggest that the accurate outcome of an evaluation of breast cancer screening must include the use of a population-based cancer registry for detecting false-negative cases. Screening by mammography combined with CBE may therefore not be sufficiently sensitive for women ranging from 40 to 49 years of age. (author)

  20. ESTIMATED DAILY AVERAGE PER CAPITA WATER INGESTION BY CHILD AND ADULT AGE CATEGORIES BASED ON USDA'S 1994-96 AND 1998 CONTINUING SURVEY OF FOOD INTAKES BY INDIVIDUALS (JOURNAL ARTICLE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Current water ingestion estimates are important for the assessment of risk to human populations of exposure to water-borne pollutants. This paper reports mean and percentile estimates of the distributions of daily average per capita water ingestion for 12 age range groups. The ...

  1. How Many Words Do We Know? Practical Estimates of Vocabulary Size Dependent on Word Definition, the Degree of Language Input and the Participant's Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brysbaert, Marc; Stevens, Michaël; Mandera, Paweł; Keuleers, Emmanuel

    2016-01-01

    Based on an analysis of the literature and a large scale crowdsourcing experiment, we estimate that an average 20-year-old native speaker of American English knows 42,000 lemmas and 4,200 non-transparent multiword expressions, derived from 11,100 word families. The numbers range from 27,000 lemmas for the lowest 5% to 52,000 for the highest 5%. Between the ages of 20 and 60, the average person learns 6,000 extra lemmas or about one new lemma every 2 days. The knowledge of the words can be as shallow as knowing that the word exists. In addition, people learn tens of thousands of inflected forms and proper nouns (names), which account for the substantially high numbers of 'words known' mentioned in other publications. PMID:27524974

  2. Age estimation of the mid-Pleistocene microtektite event in the South China Sea: A case showing the complexity of the sea-land correlation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The present study confirms the stratigraphical position of microtektite layer being clearly located below the Brunhes/Matuyama (B/M) boundary. Based on the sedimentation rate derived from the stable isotopic and magnetic data of ODP Site 772A, cores 17957 and 17959 in the South China Sea, the age of the mid-Pleistocene impact event was estimated at 10-12 ka earlier than the Brunhes-Matuyama polarity reversal. However, the microtektites were found above the measured B/M boundary in the loess profile due to the downward deviation of the measured B/M boundary from its true position[1] . This demonstrates the complexity of paleo-magnetic records in the loess profiles which, in turn, causes the confusion in the sea-land stratigraphic correlation.

  3. In vivo areal modulus of elasticity estimation of the human tympanic membrane system: modelling of middle ear mechanical function in normal young and aged ears

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaihede, Michael Lyhne; Donghua, Liao; Gregersen, H.

    2007-01-01

    The quasi-static elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system can be described by the areal modulus of elasticity determined by a middle ear model. The response of the tympanic membrane to quasi-static pressure changes is determined by its elastic properties. Several clinical problems are r...... finite element analyses. In vivo estimates of Young's modulus in this study were a factor 2-3 smaller than previously found in vitro. No significant age-related differences were found in the elastic properties as expressed by the areal modulus.......The quasi-static elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system can be described by the areal modulus of elasticity determined by a middle ear model. The response of the tympanic membrane to quasi-static pressure changes is determined by its elastic properties. Several clinical problems...... are related to these, but studies are few and mostly not comparable. The elastic properties of membranes can be described by the areal modulus, and these may also be susceptible to age-related changes reflected by changes in the areal modulus. The areal modulus is determined by the relationship between...

  4. Triglyceride levels are closely associated with mild declines in estimated glomerular filtration rates in middle-aged and elderly Chinese with normal serum lipid levels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinguo Hou

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between lipid profiles [including total cholesterol (TC, triglyceride (TG, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C] and a mild decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR in subjects with normal serum lipid levels. DESIGN AND METHODS: In this study, we included 2647 participants who were ≥ 40 years old and had normal serum lipid levels. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI equation was used to estimate the GFR. A mildly reduced eGFR was defined as 60-90 mL/min/1.73 m(2. First, multiple linear regression analysis was used to estimate the association of lipid profiles with the eGFR. Then, the levels of each lipid component were divided into four groups, using the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles as cut-off points. Finally, multiple logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the association of different lipid components with the risk of mildly reduced eGFR. RESULTS: In the group with a mildly reduced eGFR, TG and LDL-C levels were significantly increased, but HDL-C levels were significantly decreased. After adjusting for age, gender, body mass index (BMI, systolic blood pressure (SBP, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c, smoking and drinking, only TC and TG were independently related to the eGFR. Additionally, only TG showed a linear relationship with an increased risk of a mildly reduced eGFR, with the highest quartile group (TG: 108-150 mg/dl [1.22-1.70 mmol/L] having a significantly increased risk after adjusting for the above factors. CONCLUSIONS: Triglyceride levels are closely associated with a mildly reduced eGFR in subjects with normal serum lipid levels. Dyslipidemia with lower TG levels could be used as new diagnostic criteria for subjects with mildly reduced renal function.

  5. Application of hydrogeology and groundwater-age estimates to assess the travel time of groundwater at the site of a landfill to the Mahomet Aquifer, near Clinton, Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Robert T.; Buszka, Paul M.

    2016-03-02

    The U.S. Geological Survey used interpretations of hydrogeologic conditions and tritium-based groundwater age estimates to assess the travel time of groundwater at a landfill site near Clinton, Illinois (the “Clinton site”) where a chemical waste unit (CWU) was proposed to be within the Clinton landfill unit #3 (CLU#3). Glacial deposits beneath the CWU consist predominantly of low-permeability silt- and clay-rich till interspersed with thin (typically less than 2 feet in thickness) layers of more permeable deposits, including the Upper and Lower Radnor Till Sands and the Organic Soil unit. These glacial deposits are about 170 feet thick and overlie the Mahomet Sand Member of the Banner Formation. The Mahomet aquifer is composed of the Mahomet Sand Member and is used for water supply in much of east-central Illinois.Eight tritium analyses of water from seven wells were used to evaluate the overall age of recharge to aquifers beneath the Clinton site. Groundwater samples were collected from six monitoring wells on or adjacent to the CLU#3 that were open to glacial deposits above the Mahomet aquifer (the upper and lower parts of the Radnor Till Member and the Organic Soil unit) and one proximal production well (approximately 0.5 miles from the CLU#3) that is screened in the Mahomet aquifer. The tritium-based age estimates were computed with a simplifying, piston-flow assumption: that groundwater moves in discrete packets to the sampled interval by advection, without hydrodynamic dispersion or mixing.Tritium concentrations indicate a recharge age of at least 59 years (pre-1953 recharge) for water sampled from deposits below the upper part of the Radnor Till Member at the CLU#3, with older water expected at progressively greater depth in the tills. The largest tritium concentration from a well sampled by this study (well G53S; 0.32 ± 0.10 tritium units) was in groundwater from a sand deposit in the upper part of the Radnor Till Member; the shallowest permeable unit

  6. The new age of sudomotor function testing: a sensitive and specific biomarker for diagnosis, estimation of severity, monitoring progression and regression in response to intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron eVinik

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sudorimetry technology has evolved dramatically, as a rapid, non-invasive, robust, and accurate biomarker for small fibers that can easily be integrated into clinical practice. Though skin biopsy with quantitation of intraepidermal nerve fiber density (IENFD is still currently recognized as the gold standard in the evaluation, sudorimetry may yield diagnostic information not only on autonomic dysfunction, but also enhance the assessment of the small somatosensory nerves, disease detection, progression, and response to therapy. Sudoscan is based on different electrochemical principles (reverse iontophoresis and chronoamperometry to measure sudomotor function than prior technologies, affording it a much more practical and precise performance profile for routine clinical use with potential as a research tool. Small nerve fiber dysfunction has been found to occur early in metabolic syndrome and diabetes and may also be the only neurological manifestation in small fiber neuropathies, beneath the detection limits of traditional nerve function tests. Test results are robust, accomplished within minutes, require little technical training, no calculations since established norms have been provided for the effects of age, gender and ethnicity. Sudomotor testing has been greatly under-utilized in the past, restricted to specialist centers capable of handling the technically demanding, invasive biopsies for quantitation of IENF and expensive technology. Yet evaluation of autonomic and somatic nerve function has been shown to be the single best estimate of cardiovascular risk. Evaluation of sweating has the appeal of quantifiable non–invasive determination of the integrity of the peripheral autonomic nervous system, and can now be accomplished with the Sudoscan™ tool rapidly at point of care clinics, allowing intervention for morbid complications prior to permanent structural nerve damage. We review here sudomotor function testing technology; the

  7. Heritability estimates for the constitutional levels of the collectins mannan-binding lectin and lung surfactant protein D. A study of unselected like-sexed mono- and dizygotic twins at the age of 6-9 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Husby, Steffen; Herskind, Anne Maria; Jensenius, Jens Christian;

    2002-01-01

    . Structural variants are also known for SP-D but these have not been linked to disease states. The aim of the present study was to provide heritability estimates for the constitutional levels of MBL and SP-D in children. A population of 26 monozygotic (MZ) and 36 dizygotic (DZ) like-sexed twin pairs aged 6...

  8. Using a biochemical C4 photosynthesis model and combined gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements to estimate bundle-sheath conductance of maize leaves differing in age and nitrogen content

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, X.; Sun, Z.; Struik, P.C.; Putten, van der P.E.L.; Ieperen, van W.; Harbinson, J.

    2011-01-01

    Bundle-sheath conductance (gbs) affects CO2 leakiness, and, therefore, the efficiency of the CO2-concentrating mechanism (CCM) in C4 photosynthesis. Whether and how gbs varies with leaf age and nitrogen status is virtually unknown. We used a C4-photosynthesis model to estimate gbs, based on combined

  9. Age and Farmer Productivity

    OpenAIRE

    Tauer, Loren W.

    1994-01-01

    Farmer productivity by age was estimated, allowing for differences because of efficiency and returns to scale. Using Census of Agriculture data, estimates vary by state, but returns to scale average 1.07. Efficiency increases average 4.5 percent every ten years of age, to the age interval 35 to 44, and then decreases at that same rate.

  10. Age estimations of wild pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus, Forbes & Richardson 1905) based on pectoral fin spines, otoliths and bomb radiocarbon: inferences on recruitment in the dam-fragmented Missouri River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braaten, P. J.; Campana, S. E.; Fuller, D. B.; Lott, R. D.; Bruch, R. M.; Jordan, G. R.

    2015-01-01

    An extant stock of wild pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus persists in the fragmented upper Missouri River basin of Montana and North Dakota. Although successful spawning and hatch of embryos has been verified, long-term catch records suggest that recruitment has not occurred for several decades as the extant stock lacks juvenile size classes and is comprised exclusively of large, presumably old individuals. Ages of 11 deceased (death years 1997–2007) wild S. albus (136–166 cm fork length) were estimated based on pectoral fin spines, sagittal otoliths and bomb radiocarbon (14C) assays of otoliths to test the hypothesis that members of this stock are old and to provide inferences on recruitment years that produced the extant stock. Age estimations based on counts of presumed annuli were about 2 years greater for otoliths (mean = 51 years, range = 43–57 years) than spines (mean = 49 years, range = 37–59 years). Based on 14C assays, confirmed birth years for all individuals occurred prior to 1957, thus establishing known longevity of at least 50 years. Estimated age based on presumed otolith annuli for one S. albus was validated to at least age 49. Although 14C assays confirmed pre-1957 birth years for all S. albus, only 56% of estimated ages from spines and 91% of estimated ages from otoliths depicted pre-1957 birth years. Both ageing structures were subject to under-ageing error (up to 15 years). Lack of or severe curtailment of S. albus recruitment in the upper Missouri River basin since the mid-1950s closely parallels the 1953–1957 timeframe when a mainstem reservoir was constructed and started to fill. This reservoir may function as a system-wide stressor to diminish recruitment success of S. albus in the upper Missouri River basin.

  11. Estimating Stage Specific Vital Rate Responses to Stress Within Mixed Age Populations of the Opossum Shrimp Americamysis bahia Using Digital Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Most observations of stressor effects on marine crustaceans are made on individuals or even-aged cohorts. Results of these studies are difficult to translate into ecological predictions, either because life cycle models are incomplete, or because stressor effects on mixed age po...

  12. Estimating Stage-Specific Vital Rate Responses to Stress within Mixed Age Populations of the Opossum Shrimp Americamysis Bahia Using Digital Imaging (NAC SETAC 2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Most observations of stressor effects on marine crustaceans are made on individuals or even-aged cohorts. Results of these studies are difficult to translate into ecological predictions, either because life cycle models are incomplete, or because stressor effects on mixed age po...

  13. Estimation of aerosol radiative forcing over an aged-background aerosol feature during advection and non-advection events using a ground-based data obtained from a Prede Skyradiometer observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ningombam, Shantikumar S.; Bagare, S. P.; Khatri, P.; Sohn, B. J.; Song, H.-J.

    2015-10-01

    Estimation of aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) was performed using a radiative transfer model (Rstar6b) along with physical and optical parameters of aerosols obtained from sky radiometer observation over Indian Astronomical Observatory (IAO), Hanle, Ladakh, during 2008-2010 from dust, anthropogenic, and aged background observing conditions. ARF was estimated at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), in the atmosphere, and at the surface during the three observing conditions. During dust and anthropogenic events, average aerosol optical depth (AOD at 500 nm) went up to 0.24 from the aged background observing condition 0.04. Such enhancement of AOD is associated by the combination of desert-dust and anthropogenic aerosols transported from distant sources as noticed from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). Such three types of aerosols are also identified from the observed properties of single scattering albedo (SSA), aerosol asymmetry (AS) parameter, and aerosol size distribution. The estimated ARFs at TOA, at the surface, and in atmosphere are - 3.73, - 6.82, and 3.40 Wm- 2, respectively during the dust advection period. On the contrary, the respective ARFs during the aged background observing condition are - 1.50, - 2.22, and 0.70 Wm- 2, respectively. A significant difference of spectral AOD is observed during dust, anthropogenic, and aged background observing conditions. Ångström exponent (AE) decreases from 1.05 in the aged background observing condition to 0.40 in the dust event. A significant difference of coarse-fine mode volume distribution is also observed between the dust and the anthropogenic cases. Further, the study reveals high aerosols induced during the dust and the anthropogenic episodes caused warming at atmosphere and cooling at surface which collectively may affect the local atmospheric circulation.

  14. Using a biochemical C4 photosynthesis model and combined gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements to estimate bundle-sheath conductance of maize leaves differing in age and nitrogen content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Xinyou; Sun, Zhouping; Struik, Paul C; Van der Putten, Peter E L; Van Ieperen, Wim; Harbinson, Jeremy

    2011-12-01

    Bundle-sheath conductance (g(bs) ) affects CO(2) leakiness, and, therefore, the efficiency of the CO(2) -concentrating mechanism (CCM) in C(4) photosynthesis. Whether and how g(bs) varies with leaf age and nitrogen status is virtually unknown. We used a C(4) -photosynthesis model to estimate g(bs) , based on combined measurements of gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence on fully expanded leaves of three different ages of maize (Zea mays L.) plants grown under two contrasting nitrogen levels. Nitrogen was replenished weekly to maintain leaf nitrogen content (LNC) at a similar level across the three leaf ages. The estimated g(bs) values on leaf-area basis ranged from 1.4 to 10.3 mmol m(-2) s(-1) and were affected more by LNC than by leaf age, although g(bs) tended to decrease as leaves became older. When converted to resistance (r(bs) = 1/g(bs)), r(bs) decreased monotonically with LNC. The correlation was presumably associated with nitrogen effects on leaf anatomy such as on wall thickness of bundle-sheath cells. Despite higher g(bs), meaning less efficient CCM, the calculated loss due to photorespiration was still low for high-nitrogen leaves. Under the condition of ambient CO(2) and saturating irradiance, photorespiratory loss accounted for 3-5% of fixed carbon for the high-nitrogen, versus 1-2% for the low-nitrogen, leaves. PMID:21883288

  15. Re-evaluation of Pleistocene and Holocene long bone robusticity trends with regards to age-at-death estimates and size standardization procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedl, Lukáš; Eisová, Stanislava; Holliday, Trenton W

    2016-08-01

    Long-term trends in robusticity of lower limb bones in the genus Homo through the Pleistocene until the present have been proposed, which have been interpreted as a consequence of decreasing levels of mobility and activity patterns, changes in lifestyle, and environmental factors. There has also long been evidence that skeletal strength increases over an individual's lifespan. This increase is caused by continuous bone remodeling that optimizes the structure of a bone to resist mechanical loadings and creates a balance between endosteal resorption and subperiosteal apposition. However, none of the previous studies of temporal trends in robusticity has considered both processes and analyzed how individual age-related robusticity might influence higher-level temporal trends. This paper therefore explores temporal trends in robusticity of lower limb long bones within the genus Homo and considers how individual ages-at-death can confound published evolutionary trends, given the fact that some aspects of relative bone strength tend to increase over individual lifespans. Cross-sectional diaphyseal properties of the midshaft and proximal femur and midshaft tibia of Pleistocene and early Holocene individuals, together with data on age-at-death are used to analyze changes in relative bone strength relative to individuals' ages and evolutionary time. The results show increasing bone strength in adulthood until the fourth decade and then a slight decrease, an observation that conforms to previously published results on recent human populations. However, no significant impact of age-at-death on the trends along an evolutionary trajectory has been detected. The evolutionary trends in femoral and tibial relative strength can be described as fluctuating, probably as a consequence of changing mobility patterns, environmentally and technologically influenced behaviors, and demographic processes. The differences between evolutionary trends published in several studies are explained

  16. Estimation of salivary flow rate, pH, buffer capacity, calcium, total protein content and total antioxidant capacity in relation to dental caries severity, age and gender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pallavi Pandey

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of the study was to evaluate salivary flow rate, pH, buffering capacity, calcium, total protein content and total antioxidant capacity in relation to dental caries, age and gender. Materials and Methods: The study population consisted of 120 healthy children aged 7-15 years that was further divided into two groups: 7-10 years and 11-15 years. In this 60 children with DMFS/dfs = 0 and 60 children with DMFS/dfs ≥5 were included. The subjects were divided into two groups; Group A: Children with DMFS/dfs = 0 (caries-free Group B: Children with DMFS/dfs ≥5 (caries active. Unstimulated saliva samples were collected from all groups. Flow rates were determined, and samples analyzed for pH, buffer capacity, calcium, total protein and total antioxidant status. Salivary antioxidant activity is measured with spectrophotometer by an adaptation of 2,2′-azino-di-(3-ethylbenzthiazoline-6-sulphonate assays. Results: The mean difference of the two groups; caries-free and caries active were proved to be statistically significant (P < 0.05 for salivary calcium, total protein and total antioxidant level for both the sexes in the age group 7-10 years and for the age 11-15 years the mean difference of the two groups were proved to be statistically significant (P < 0.05 for salivary calcium level for both the sexes. Salivary total protein and total antioxidant level were proved to be statistically significant for male children only. Conclusions: In general, total protein and total antioxidants in saliva were increased with caries activity. Calcium content of saliva was found to be more in caries-free group and increased with age.

  17. Estimating the lifetime economic burden of stroke according to the age of onset in South Korea: a cost of illness study

    OpenAIRE

    Suh Hae Sun; Lim Seung-Ji; Kang Hye-Young; Liew Danny

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background The recently-observed trend towards younger stroke patients in Korea raises economic concerns, including erosion of the workforce. We compared per-person lifetime costs of stroke according to the age of stroke onset from the Korean societal perspective. Methods A state-transition Markov model consisted of three health states ('post primary stroke event', 'alive post stroke', and 'dead') was developed to simulate the natural history of stroke. The transition probabilities f...

  18. Methods of estimating the state of the mechanisms of regulation of cardiac activity for girls 9-10 years of age during physical training aimed at developing endurance

    OpenAIRE

    Samokih I.I.

    2012-01-01

    Are considered indicators of regulation of cardiac activity proposed D.N. Davidenko et al. (1984). It is established age-related indicators in girls from 9 to 10 years. It is shown that in the process of double-entry physical training with the implementation of priority endurance exercise significantly improves the efficiency of regulation of cardiac activity for girls. The expediency of the lessons of physical culture directed on the priority of development endurance to improve the physical ...

  19. Benchmark dose estimation for cadmium-induced renal tubular damage among environmental cadmium-exposed women aged 35-54 years in two counties of China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Hu

    Full Text Available A number of factors, including gender, age, smoking habits, and occupational exposure, affect the levels of urinary cadmium. Few studies have considered these influences when calculating the benchmark dose (BMD of cadmium. In the present study, we aimed to calculate BMDs and their 95% lower confidence bounds (BMDLs for cadmium-induced renal tubular effects in an age-specific population in south-central China.In this study, urinary cadmium, β2-microglobulin, and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase levels were measured in morning urine samples from 490 randomly selected non-smoking women aged 35-54 years. Participants were selected using stratified cluster sampling in two counties (counties A and B in China. Multiple regression and logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the dose-response relationship between urinary cadmium levels and tubular effects. BMDs/BMDLs corresponding to an additional risk (benchmark response of 5% and 10% were calculated with assumed cut-off values of the 84th and 90th percentile of urinary β2-microglobulin and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase levels of the controls.Urinary levels of β2-microglobulin and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase increased significantly with increasing levels of urinary cadmium. Age was not associated with urinary cadmium levels, possibly because of the narrow age range included in this study. Based on urinary β2-microglobulin and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase, BMDs and BMDLs of urinary cadmium ranged from 2.08 to 3.80 (1.41-2.18 µg/g cr for subjects in county A and from 0.99 to 3.34 (0.74-1.91 µg/g cr for those in county B. The predetermined benchmark response of 0.05 and the 90th percentiles of urinary β2-microglobulin and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase levels of the subjects not exposed to cadmium (i.e., the control group served as cut-off values.The obtained BMDs of urinary cadmium were similar to the reference point of 1 µg/g cr, as suggested by the European Food Safety Authority

  20. Gestational age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetal age - gestational age; Gestation; Neonatal gestational age; Newborn gestational age ... Gestational age can be determined before or after birth. Before birth, your health care provider will use ...

  1. (UnResolved contradictions in the Late Pleistocene glacial chronology of the Southern Carpathians - new samples and recalculated cosmogenic radionuclide age estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zsófia RUSZKICZAY-RÜDIGER

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Application of cosmogenic nuclides in the study of Quaternary glaciations has increased rapidly during the last decade owing to the previous absence of direct dating methods of glacial landforms and sediments. Although several hundred publications have already been released on exposure age dating of glacial landforms worldwide, very few studies targeted the Carpathians so far (Kuhlemann et al, 2013a; Makos et al., 2014; Reuther et al, 2004, 2007; Rinterknecht et al. 2012.There are many unresolved or contradictory issues regarding the glacial chronology of the Romanian Carpathians. Recently, some attempts have been made to develop an improved temporal framework for the glaciations of the region using cosmogenic 10Be dating (Reuther et al. 2004, 2007, Kuhlemann et al. 2013a. However, these studies made the picture even more confusing because the local last glacial maximum, for instance, apparently occurred in asynchronous timing compared to each other and also to other dated glacial events in Europe (Hughes et al, 2013.This situation is even more interesting if we take into account that the local glacial maximum tends to agree with the global LGM derived from the Eastern Balkans (Kuhlemann et al. 2013b, while the penultimate glaciation seems to significantly overtake the LGM advance over the Western Balkans (Hughes et al. 2011.The primary candidate reasons to resolve these discrepancies are methodological, e.g. insufficient number of samples (one sample/landform ignoring geological scatter of the data and the application of different half-lives, production rates and scaling schemes during the calculation of exposure ages. Systematic methodological uncertainties in computing exposure ages from measured nuclide concentrations have a significant impact on the conclusions concerning correlations of exposure-dated glacier chronologies with millennial scale climate changes (Balco, 2011. The changes in glacial timing generated by only using the most

  2. The estimation of exposure to food packaging materials. 2. Patterns of intakes of packaged foods in Irish Children aged 5-12 years.

    OpenAIRE

    Duffy, Edel; Hearty, Aine; Flynn, Albert; McCarthy, Sinéad; Gibney, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Many assumptions are employed to calculate the intake of a food packaging migrant in the EU. However very little is known about the actual intake of packaged food, the type of this food and also the type of packaging used for this food. The objective of the present study was to examine intakes of packaged food in children aged 5-12 years, to provide information on the types of food that are packaged and the type of packaging used. To do this a food consumption database, wh...

  3. EVOLUTION OF CHEMICAL CONDITIONS AND ESTIMATED SOLUBILITY CONTROLS ON RADIONUCLIDES IN THE RESIDUAL WASTE LAYER DURING POST-CLOSURE AGING OF HIGH-LEVEL WASTE TANKS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denham, M.; Millings, M.

    2012-08-28

    This document provides information specific to H-Area waste tanks that enables a flow and transport model with limited chemical capabilities to account for varying waste release from the tanks through time. The basis for varying waste release is solubilities of radionuclides that change as pore fluids passing through the waste change in composition. Pore fluid compositions in various stages were generated by simulations of tank grout degradation. The first part of the document describes simulations of the degradation of the reducing grout in post-closure tanks. These simulations assume flow is predominantly through a water saturated porous medium. The infiltrating fluid that reacts with the grout is assumed to be fluid that has passed through the closure cap and into the tank. The results are three stages of degradation referred to as Reduced Region II, Oxidized Region II, and Oxidized Region III. A reaction path model was used so that the transitions between each stage are noted by numbers of pore volumes of infiltrating fluid reacted. The number of pore volumes to each transition can then be converted to time within a flow and transport model. The bottoms of some tanks in H-Area are below the water table requiring a different conceptual model for grout degradation. For these simulations the reacting fluid was assumed to be 10% infiltrate through the closure cap and 90% groundwater. These simulations produce an additional four pore fluid compositions referred to as Conditions A through D and were intended to simulate varying degrees of groundwater influence. The most probable degradation path for the submerged tanks is Condition C to Condition D to Oxidized Region III and eventually to Condition A. Solubilities for Condition A are estimated in the text for use in sensitivity analyses if needed. However, the grout degradation simulations did not include sufficient pore volumes of infiltrating fluid for the grout to evolve to Condition A. Solubility controls for use

  4. A weighted polygenic risk score using 14 known susceptibility variants to estimate risk and age onset of psoriasis in Han Chinese.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianyong Yin

    Full Text Available With numbers of common variants identified mainly through genome-wide association studies (GWASs, there is great interest in incorporating the findings into screening individuals at high risk of psoriasis. The purpose of this study is to establish genetic prediction models and evaluate its discriminatory ability in psoriasis in Han Chinese population. We built the genetic prediction models through weighted polygenic risk score (PRS using 14 susceptibility variants in 8,819 samples. We found the risk of psoriasis among individuals in the top quartile of PRS was significantly larger than those in the lowest quartile of PRS (OR = 28.20, P < 2.0×10(-16. We also observed statistically significant associations between the PRS, family history and early age onset of psoriasis. We also built a predictive model with all 14 known susceptibility variants and alcohol consumption, which achieved an area under the curve statistic of ~ 0.88. Our study suggests that 14 psoriasis known susceptibility loci have the discriminating potential, as is also associated with family history and age of onset. This is the genetic predictive model in psoriasis with the largest accuracy to date.

  5. Utilidad de la radiografía panorámica dental digital en la estimación de la edad en adultos Usefulness of dental digital panoramic radiography in the estimation of age in adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.I. Landa

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available La estimación de la edad constituye un campo de creciente interés dentro de la Medicina Forense. La cuantificación de la reducción de las dimensiones de la cavidad pulpar como consecuencia del proceso de depósito de la dentina secundaria a lo largo de la vida podría servir como un posible indicador de edad. Este fenómeno además de mediante técnicas morfológicas, puede ser analizado mediante la utilización de diferentes técnicas radiográficas. El objetivo principal de este estudio consistió en evaluar la reproducibilidad del método original de cálculo de edad dental desarrollado por Kvaal et al. sobre radiografías panorámicas digitales dentales así como analizar la aplicación de las fórmulas de estimación de edad dental propuestas. Fueron seleccionadas al azar 100 ortopantomografías digitales obtenidas de pacientes de una clínica de Bilbao de edades comprendidas entre 14 y 60 años. En cada ortopantomografía fueron estudiados tres dientes mandibulares siguiendo la metodología ya descrita. Los resultados obtenidos no confirmaron la reproducibilidad del método desarrollado por Kvaal et al. sobre radiografía digital directa. Los valores tan extremos obtenidos en la estimación de la edad mediante la aplicación de las fórmulas de regresión analizadas sobre las radiografías digitales de esta serie de estudio desaconsejan su aplicación en poblaciones similares a la serie analizada.Estimation of age in individuals has received considerable attention in the forensic literature. The reduction of size of dental pulp cavity as a result of secondary dentin deposit with increasing age could be used as an indicator of age. This regression change, apart from morphological techniques, can also be analysed by radiological techniques. The aim of this work was to evaluate the reproducibility of the original method of Kvaal et al. on digital panoramic radiographs as well as to analyse the application of age estimation formulae

  6. Karakteristik Morfologi, Perbedaan Jenis Kelamin, dan Pendugaan Umur Burung Weris (Gallirallus philippensis) di Minahasa, Sulawesi Utara (MORPHOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS, SEX DIFFERENCES, AND AGE ESTIMATION OF WERIS (GALLIRALLUS PHILIPPENSIS) FROM MINAHASA

    OpenAIRE

    Lucia Johana Lambey; Ronny Rachman Noor; Wasmen Manalu; Dedy Duryadi

    2013-01-01

    This study aim  to observeb Gallirallus philippensis  similarities between different sites in Minahasa,to detect sexual dimorphism, and to estimate the bird age based on morphological characteristics.  A totalof 35 birds  were collected  from four locations i.e. Tondano, Papontolan, Ranoyapo, and Wusa in MinahasaNorth Sulawesi.   The result showed that there were no differences in the length  of beak, wing, and shankbetween  birds from  the different locations.  Moreover, based on the Princip...

  7. Longevity of Atlantic Sharpnose Sharks Rhizoprionodon terraenovae and Blacknose Sharks Carcharhinus acronotus in the western North Atlantic Ocean based on tag-recapture data and direct age estimates [v2; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/4fj

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan S. Frazier

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Longevity of Rhizoprionodon terraenovae and Carcharhinus acronotus in the western North Atlantic Ocean was examined using direct age estimates from vertebral sections and tag-recapture data. Time-at-liberty ranged from 7.7-14.0 years (mean =10.1 for R. terraenovae and 10.9-12.8 years (mean =11.9 for C. acronotus. Maximum estimated longevity was determined to be 19.8 years through tag-recapture data and 18.5 years from direct age estimates for R. terraenovae and 22.8 years through tag-recapture data and 20.5 years through direct age estimates for C. acronotus. These longevity estimates represent a large increase over previous estimates and may have significant effects on analyses that depend on longevity including lifetime fecundity, mortality rates, demographic analyses and stock assessments.

  8. Estimation of 226Ra concentration in ground water around Narwapahar uranium mine, Jharkhand, India and assessment of age dependent ingestion dose to the members of the public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Because of natural mineralization and for various mining activities, enhanced level of natural radioactivity in various matrices around a uranium mine may be expected. In the present study the distribution of 226Ra concentration was measured in ground water samples, collected within a 10 km radius around the Narwapahar uranium mine in the Singhbhum thrust belt of Jharkhand, India in 2007-2008. The 226Ra content in the ground water samples in this region was found to vary from 5.2-38.1 mBql-1 with mean 13.73 ± 7.34 mBql-1. The total mean annual ingestion dose due to intake of 226Ra through drinking water pathway to male and female adults population was estimated to be 5.19 ± 2.78 μSv y-1 and 3.79 ± 2.03 μSv y-1, respectively, which comprises simply a small fraction of the reference dose level of 100 μSv y-1 as recommended by WHO. (author)

  9. Estimated intake and food sources of vitamin A, folate, vitamin C, vitamin E, calcium, iron, and zinc for Guamanian children aged 9 to 12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pobocik, Rebecca S; Richer, Jennifer J

    2002-09-01

    This study describes the nutrient intake and food sources of select vitamins and minerals for children on Guam. Food records (n = 954) from public school students aged nine to twelve of all regions on Guam were analyzed for nutrient content and compared to Recommended Dietary Allowances (RDA). Individual foods were condensed into 194 food aggregates and food lists representing 84% to 91% of the major vitamins and minerals in the diet of the children were developed by frequency analysis. Median intake of calcium, vitamin E, folate were less than 50% of the Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA) and mean intake of these nutrients was 60% RDA or less. Mean and median vitamin A intake was 107% and 76% RDA, respectively. Both mean and median intake of Vitamin C, iron and zinc were present at levels above 100% RDA. Rice, meat, fruit drink from powder, milk, and fortified cereals are foods that provide substantial contributions to the vitamin and mineral content of the diets. Traditional, nutrient dense foods, such as fish, yams, papaya, and mango had minor contributions because of low frequently of consumption. Information from this study can be used to develop specific diet assessment instruments and culturally appropriate nutrition education.

  10. 9~12岁儿童估算策略选择的发展特点%Developmental Characteristics of Computational Estimation Strategy Choices in Children Aged 9-12

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈丽兰

    2012-01-01

    认知心理学家和数学教育工作者对于估算在人们日常生活中的作用已形成广泛共识.9~12岁儿童估算策略选择的发展特点有:在估算时能选择多种策略,且策略的使用频率不相同,取整使用最频繁,其次是先补偿,转换和分解策略的使用频次最小;随着问题难度的增加,估算策略选择的最佳击中率降低;随着年龄的增长,估算策略选择的个数增加,估算策略选择的最佳击中率上升;估算策略的选择不存在性别差异。%This study focused on exploring the developmental characteristics of 90 grade 46 (aged 9-12)primary students' computational estimation strategy choices through the strategies children choose to solve 24 addition and subtraction computational estimating problems. The results are as follows: (1) Children tend to choose more strategies to solve the problems and the frequency is different: rounding is the strategy that is chosen most frequently and the next is prior-compensation, but the strategies of translation and decompensation are chosen least; (2) with the increasing of difficulty in problems, the best strategy hit rate falls down and with the growing of children's age, the number of strategies and the best strategy hit rate goes up; (3) no gender differences exist in the students' computational estimation strategy choices.

  11. Proposed Testing Procedure for Estimation of Effective Recycling Ratio of Aged Asphalt in Hot Recycling Technical Conditions%老化沥青热再生有效再生率检测方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨毅文; 马涛; 卞国剑; 金晶; 黄晓明

    2011-01-01

    基于对流传质理论分析了沥青路面热再生过程中老化沥青与新沥青、再生剂的混溶机理,认为老化沥青预热温度、再生剂扩散能力以及再生沥青混合料拌和时间是影响老化沥青有效再生率的重要因素.设计提出了能够良好模拟实际热再生工艺条件的老化沥青有效再生率检测方法,试验分析了老化沥青预热温度、再生剂添加与否、再生沥青混合料拌和时间对老化沥青有效再生率的影响.试验结果验证了所设计检测方法的可行性,据此可为老化沥青再生效果的评价以及老化沥青热再生工艺条件的设计提供有利依据.%Based on the convective mass transfer theory, the mechanism of mixing of aged asphalt, new asphalt and recycling agent in asphalt pavement hot recycling projects was studied. It was deemed that the heating temperature of aged asphalt, the diffusing capability of recycling agent and the mixing time of recycling asphalt mixture could have important influence on the effective recycling ratio of aged asphalt. Therefore , a testing procedure well simulating the real technical conditions to estimate the effective recycling ratio of aged asphalt was designed. And the influences of heating temperature of aged asphalt, using recycling agent or not and mixing time of recycling asphalt mixture on the effective recycling ratio of aged asphalt were studied. Based on the test results, the feasibility of the new testing procedure is proved. It will be helpful for the evaluation of recycling effect of aged asphalt and the design of hot recycling technical conditions.

  12. Comparison of age distributions estimated from environmental tracers by using binary-dilution and numerical models of fractured and folded karst: Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yager, Richard M.; Plummer, L. Niel; Kauffman, Leon J.; Doctor, Daniel H.; Nelms, David L.; Schlosser, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Measured concentrations of environmental tracers in spring discharge from a karst aquifer in the Shenandoah Valley, USA, were used to refine a numerical groundwater flow model. The karst aquifer is folded and faulted carbonate bedrock dominated by diffuse flow along fractures. The numerical model represented bedrock structure and discrete features (fault zones and springs). Concentrations of 3H, 3He, 4He, and CFC-113 in spring discharge were interpreted as binary dilutions of young (0–8 years) water and old (tracer-free) water. Simulated mixtures of groundwater are derived from young water flowing along shallow paths, with the addition of old water flowing along deeper paths through the model domain that discharge to springs along fault zones. The simulated median age of young water discharged from springs (5.7 years) is slightly older than the median age estimated from 3H/3He data (4.4 years). The numerical model predicted a fraction of old water in spring discharge (0.07) that was half that determined by the binary-dilution model using the 3H/3He apparent age and 3H and CFC-113 data (0.14). This difference suggests that faults and lineaments are more numerous or extensive than those mapped and included in the numerical model.

  13. Sap flow based transpiration estimates in species-rich secondary forests of different ages in central Panama during a wet-season drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretfeld, M.; Ewers, B. E.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.

    2015-12-01

    Many landscapes that were previously covered by mature tropical forests in central Panama today comprise of a mosaic of mature forest fragments, pastures and agricultural land, and regrowing secondary forests. An increasing demand for water due to urbanization and the expansion of the Panama Canal, along with a predicted transition into a dryer climatic period necessitate a better understanding regarding the effects of land use and land use history on hydrological processes. Such knowledge, including water storage, residence times, and fluxes is essential to develop effective land management strategies and propose incentives to alter land use practices to enhance hydrological services. To quantify transpiration rates at different stages of secondary forest succession, we measured sap flow in forests growing for 8, ~25, and 80+ years since last known land use in the 15 km2 "Agua Salud" study area, located in central Panama. In each forest, we selected a subset of at least 15 individuals, representing the local tree size distribution, and recorded data from heat-ratio sap flow sensors every 30 minutes starting in February 2015. All instrumented trees were identified to species and compared to local species distributions. Basal area in the three forest types was 9.1, 10.8, and 50.2 m2 ha-1 for 8, ~25, and 80+ year old forests, respectively. Average daily transpiration was highly correlated to forest age, with highest rates in the oldest forest (3.0 to 18.2 mm ha-1 day-1), followed by intermediate (1.2 to 6.7 mm ha-1 day-1) and youngest forests (0.2 to 2.7 mm ha-1 day-1), suggesting roughly a doubling in transpiration from 8 to ~25 year old forests, despite similar basal area, and again from ~25 to 80+ year old forests. Flow rates in individual trees generally reflected the dry-to-wet season transition but behaved differently in response to the unprecedentedly dry conditions during the first half of 2015 in central Panama.

  14. Age determination of raccoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grau, G.A.; Sanderson, G.C.; Rogers, J.P.

    1970-01-01

    Age criteria, based on 61 skulls and eye lenses from 103 known-age captives, are described for separating raccoons (Procyon lotor) into eight age-classes as follows: young-of-the-year, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6-7, > 7 years. Criteria studied were eye lens nitrogen, cranial suture closure, tooth wear and incisor cementum layers. Lens nitrogen increased rapidly up to 12 months of age, but at much reduced rate thereafter. Total lens nitrogen was useful only in separating young-of-the-year from adults. The closure sequence for five cranial sutures accurately divided the total known-age sample of males into seven groups, and the adults into five groups. The tooth wear criteria divided the known-age sample into five relative age groups, but aging of individuals by this method was inaccurate. Histological sectioning of known-age teeth was the best method of observing layering in the cementum tissue. The technique of basing estimation of age on cementum ring counts, although subjective, was accurate for aging individuals through their fourth year but tended to underestimate the age of animals over 4 years old. However, suture closure or tooth wear can be used to identify males over 4 years old. In field studies, technical difficulties limit the utility of age estimation by cementum layers. Maximum root thickness of the lower canine was accurate in determining the sex of individuals from 5 months to ,at least 48 months of age.

  15. Is the Age Problem Resolved?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ali Akbar Navabi; Nematollah Riazi

    2003-03-01

    The cosmological, astrophysical, and nucleocosmochronological methods for estimating the age of the universe and the corresponding uncertainties are comparatively studied in the present paper.We are led to the conclusion that the newmeasurements of cosmological parameters, and the recent estimates of the age of globular clusters have led to the gradual disappearance of the age problem from the arena of modern cosmology.

  16. Aging Skin

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... email address Submit Home > Healthy Aging > Wellness Healthy Aging Aging skin More information on aging skin When it ... treated early. Return to top More information on Aging skin Read more from womenshealth.gov Varicose Veins ...

  17. Ages of young stars

    CERN Document Server

    Soderblom, David R; Jeffries, Rob D; Mamajek, Eric E; Naylor, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Determining the sequence of events in the formation of stars and planetary systems and their time-scales is essential for understanding those processes, yet establishing ages is fundamentally difficult because we lack direct indicators. In this review we discuss the age challenge for young stars, specifically those less than ~100 Myr old. Most age determination methods that we discuss are primarily applicable to groups of stars but can be used to estimate the age of individual objects. A reliable age scale is established above 20 Myr from measurement of the Lithium Depletion Boundary (LDB) in young clusters, and consistency is shown between these ages and those from the upper main sequence and the main sequence turn-off -- if modest core convection and rotation is included in the models of higher-mass stars. Other available methods for age estimation include the kinematics of young groups, placing stars in Hertzsprung-Russell diagrams, pulsations and seismology, surface gravity measurement, rotation and activ...

  18. Estimates and determinants of HPV non-vaccination and vaccine refusal in girls 12 to 14 y of age in Canada: Results from the Childhood National Immunization Coverage Survey, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Nicolas L; Gilmour, Heather; Dubé, Ève; Wilson, Sarah E; Laroche, Julie

    2016-06-01

    Since the introduction of HPV vaccination programs in Canada in 2007, coverage has been below public health goals in many provinces and territories. This analysis investigated the determinants of HPV non-vaccination and vaccine refusal. Data from the Childhood National Immunization Coverage Survey (CNICS) 2013 were used to estimate the prevalence of HPV non-vaccination and parental vaccine refusal in girls aged 12-14 years, for Canada and the provinces and territories. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with non-vaccination and vaccine refusal, after adjusting for potential confounders. An estimated 27.7% of 12-14 y old girls had not been vaccinated against HPV, and 14.4% of parents reported refusing the vaccine. The magnitude of non-vaccination and vaccine refusal varied by province or territory and also by responding parent's country of birth. In addition, higher education was associated with a higher risk of refusal of the HPV vaccine. Rates of HPV non-vaccination and of refusal of the HPV vaccine differ and are influenced by different variables. These findings warrant further investigation.

  19. Karakteristik Morfologi, Perbedaan Jenis Kelamin, dan Pendugaan Umur Burung Weris (Gallirallus philippensis di Minahasa, Sulawesi Utara (MORPHOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS, SEX DIFFERENCES, AND AGE ESTIMATION OF WERIS (GALLIRALLUS PHILIPPENSIS FROM MINAHASA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia Johana Lambey

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aim  to observeb Gallirallus philippensis  similarities between different sites in Minahasa,to detect sexual dimorphism, and to estimate the bird age based on morphological characteristics.  A totalof 35 birds  were collected  from four locations i.e. Tondano, Papontolan, Ranoyapo, and Wusa in MinahasaNorth Sulawesi.   The result showed that there were no differences in the length  of beak, wing, and shankbetween  birds from  the different locations.  Moreover, based on the Principle Component Analysis (PCAthe bird’s shank and tail’s length were the main component.  Based on cluster analysis, the birds from fourlocations had a close similarities.  The male bird’s body weight, beak length, and beak width were largercomponent to the female’s.  The bird’s age could be best predicted by their iris colour,  beak colour, feather colourof the neck and the growth of the wing feathers, respectively.

  20. Farmer Productivity at Various Ages

    OpenAIRE

    Tauer, Loren W.

    1993-01-01

    The productivity of farmers at six different age cohorts was computed by estimating production functions using 1987 census data. The results suggest that farmers of different ages operate with slightly different technologies and use various inputs at different efficiencies. Compared with previous 1978 estimates, the productivity of middleaged farmers appears to be even greater than the productivity of younger and older farmers. The average age of U.S. farmers exceeds the age of highest produc...

  1. Osificación del cartílago costal de la primera costilla en relación con la edad: Aplicaciones en la estimación forense de la edad Ossification of first rib cartilage related to age: Applications in the forensic estimation of age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PM. Garamendi

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Se presenta un estudio sobre una muestra de 123 radiografías digitales de tórax de sujetos entre 5 y 75 años de edad en las que se ha analizado el estado de osificación del cartílago costal de la primera costilla. En este estudio el estadio 0 de osificación suele asociarse con edades entre 5 y 19 años. Los estadios de osificación 2 y 3 se han asociado con edades mínimas de 24 años de edad. Autores previos (Michelson, 1934 ya habían indicado que la edad mínima a la que los sujetos estudiados presentaban un estadio 3 de osificación era de 21 años de edad. Se sugiere la posibilidad de integrar el estudio de la osificación de la primera costilla entre los datos diagnósticos manejados para la estimación forense de edad en sujetos vivos basada en las recomendaciones del AGFAD del año 2000.The results of a research on ossification of first rib cartilage in a Spanish population are presented in this paper. Our sample is constituted by 123 digital x-rays studies had made up our sample. Minimum subject age has been 5 years old and maximum age 75 years old. Stage 0 has been usually found out in subjects between 5 and 19 years of age. Stages 2 and 3 had been found out in subjects at a minimum age of 24 years old. Previous researches had pointed out that stage 3 could be observed in subjects at an age of at least 21 years of age. We suggest that the analysis of the ossification degree of the first rib cartilage could be useful as a complementary method for the forensic estimation of age based on radiographic methods.

  2. Aging Blepharoplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inchang Cho

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In performing upper blepharoplasty in the elderly, looking younger and keeping the eyelidsharmonious with the rest of the face have to be achieved at the same time. The most importantgoal in upper blepharoplasty for aging is correcting the drooping upper eyelid skin, and inthis process, the surgeon may or may not create a double eyelid fold. The pros and cons haveto be fully discussed with the patient, but the author personally prefers creating a doublefold unless the patient refuses, because it is efficient in correcting and preventing furtherdrooping of the skin. In most patients, the brow is elevated to compensate for the droopingeyelid, and when the drooping is corrected, brow ptosis may ensue. The surgeon has to preparefor these consequences before performing the procedure, and estimate the exact amountof skin to be excised. In the elderly, the skin and the orbicularis oculi muscle is thin, with adecreased amount of subcutaneous fat and retro-orbicularis oculi fat, and in most cases,excision of the skin alone is enough to correct the deformity. Removing large portions ofsoft tissue may also prolong the recovery period. Unlike younger patients, the lower skinflap should not be stretched too much in the elderly, as it may create an aggressive lookingappearance. A few wrinkles in the lower flap should remain untouched to create a naturallook. In this article, the author’s own methods of performing an aging blepharoplasty aredescribed specifically, with a step-by-step guide and surgical tips.

  3. Variation in erosion/deposition rates over the last 50 years on alluvial fan surfaces of L. Pleistocene- Mid Holocene age, estimations using 137Cs soil profile data, Amargosa Valley, Nevada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, C.; Kelley, R.; Ebert, T.; Delong, S.; Cline, M.; Pelletier, J.; Whitney, J.

    2005-12-01

    Variations in erosion and deposition for the last fifty years (based on estimates from 137Cs profiles) on surfaces (Late Pleistocene to Late Holocene in age) making up the Fortymile Wash alluvial fan south of Yucca Mountain, is a function of surface age and of desert pavement development or absence. For purposes of comparing erosion and deposition, the surfaces can be examined as three groups: (1) Late Pleistocene surfaces possess areas of desert pavement development with thin Av or sandy A horizons, formed by the trapping capabilities of the pavements. These zones of deposition are complemented by coppice dune formation on similar parts of the surface. Areas on the surface where no pavement development has occurred are erosional in nature with 0.0 +/- 0.0 cm to 1.5 +/- 0.5 cm of erosion occurring primarily by winds blowing across the surface. Overall these surfaces may show either a small net depositional gain or small erosional loss. (2) Early Holocene surfaces have no well-developed desert pavements, but may have residual gravel deposits in small areas on the surfaces. These surfaces show the most consistent erosional surface areas on which it ranges from1.0 +/-.01 cm to 2.0+/-.01 cm. Fewer depositional forms are found on this age of surface so there is probably a net loss of 1.5 cm across these surfaces. (3) The Late Holocene surfaces show the greatest variability in erosion and deposition. Overbank deposition during floods cover many edges of these surfaces and coppice dune formation also creates depositional features. Erosion rates are highly variable and range from 0.0 +/- 0.0 to a maximum of 2.0+/-.01. Erosion occurs because of the lack of protection of the surface. However, the common areas of deposition probably result in the surface having a small net depositional gain across these surfaces. Thus, the interchannel surfaces of the Fortymile Wash fan show a variety of erosional styles as well as areas of deposition. The fan, therefore, is a dynamic system

  4. Interpreting spotted dolphin age distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Barlow, Jay; Hohn, Aleta A.

    1984-01-01

    Previous work has determined the age distribution from a sample of spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata) killed in the eastern Pacific tuna purse-seine fishery. In this paper we examine the usefulness of this age distribution for estimating natural mortality rates. The observed age distribution has a deficiency of individuals from 5-15 years and cannot represent a stable age distribution. Sampling bias and errors in age interpretation are examined as possible causes of the "dip" in the obs...

  5. Inconsistency of mesophyll conductance estimate causes the inconsistency for the estimates of maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation among the linear, rectangular and non-rectangular hyperbola biochemical models of leaf photosynthesis--a case study of CO₂ enrichment and leaf aging effects in soybean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jindong; Feng, Zhaozhong; Leakey, Andrew D B; Zhu, Xinguang; Bernacchi, Carl J; Ort, Donald R

    2014-09-01

    The responses of CO2 assimilation to [CO2] (A/Ci) were investigated at two developmental stages (R5 and R6) and in several soybean cultivars grown under two levels of CO2, the ambient level of 370 μbar versus the elevated level of 550 μbar. The A/Ci data were analyzed and compared by either the combined iterations or the separated iterations of the Rubisco-limited photosynthesis (Ac) and/or the RuBP-limited photosynthesis (Aj) using various curve-fitting methods: the linear 2-segment model; the non-rectangular hyperbola model; the rectangular hyperbola model; the constant rate of electron transport (J) method and the variable J method. Inconsistency was found among the various methods for the estimation of the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax), the mitochondrial respiration rate in the light (Rd) and mesophyll conductance (gm). The analysis showed that the inconsistency was due to inconsistent estimates of gm values that decreased with an instantaneous increase in [CO2], and varied with the transition Ci cut-off between Rubisco-limited photosynthesis and RuBP-regeneration-limited photosynthesis, and due to over-parameters for non-linear curve-fitting with gm included. We proposed an alternate solution to A/Ci curve-fitting for estimates of Vcmax, Rd, Jmax and gm with the various A/Ci curve-fitting methods. The study indicated that down-regulation of photosynthetic capacity by elevated [CO2] and leaf aging was due to partially the decrease in the maximum rates of carboxylation and partially the decrease in gm. Mesophyll conductance lowered photosynthetic capacity by 18% on average for the case of soybean plants. PMID:25113450

  6. Inconsistency of mesophyll conductance estimate causes the inconsistency for the estimates of maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation among the linear, rectangular and non-rectangular hyperbola biochemical models of leaf photosynthesis--a case study of CO₂ enrichment and leaf aging effects in soybean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jindong; Feng, Zhaozhong; Leakey, Andrew D B; Zhu, Xinguang; Bernacchi, Carl J; Ort, Donald R

    2014-09-01

    The responses of CO2 assimilation to [CO2] (A/Ci) were investigated at two developmental stages (R5 and R6) and in several soybean cultivars grown under two levels of CO2, the ambient level of 370 μbar versus the elevated level of 550 μbar. The A/Ci data were analyzed and compared by either the combined iterations or the separated iterations of the Rubisco-limited photosynthesis (Ac) and/or the RuBP-limited photosynthesis (Aj) using various curve-fitting methods: the linear 2-segment model; the non-rectangular hyperbola model; the rectangular hyperbola model; the constant rate of electron transport (J) method and the variable J method. Inconsistency was found among the various methods for the estimation of the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax), the mitochondrial respiration rate in the light (Rd) and mesophyll conductance (gm). The analysis showed that the inconsistency was due to inconsistent estimates of gm values that decreased with an instantaneous increase in [CO2], and varied with the transition Ci cut-off between Rubisco-limited photosynthesis and RuBP-regeneration-limited photosynthesis, and due to over-parameters for non-linear curve-fitting with gm included. We proposed an alternate solution to A/Ci curve-fitting for estimates of Vcmax, Rd, Jmax and gm with the various A/Ci curve-fitting methods. The study indicated that down-regulation of photosynthetic capacity by elevated [CO2] and leaf aging was due to partially the decrease in the maximum rates of carboxylation and partially the decrease in gm. Mesophyll conductance lowered photosynthetic capacity by 18% on average for the case of soybean plants.

  7. Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Heitzig, Martina; Cameron, Ian;

    2011-01-01

    In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of optimisation techniques coupled with dynamic solution of the underlying model. Linear and nonlinear approaches to parameter estimation are investigated. There is also the application of maximum likelihood principles in the estimation of parameters, as well as the use of orthogonal collocation to...... generate a set of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....

  8. Rural Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Rural Health > Topics & States > Topics View more Rural Aging The nation's population is aging, and with that change comes increased healthcare needs. ... Disease Control and Prevention report, The State of Aging and Health in America 2013 , the population 65 ...

  9. Age, estimated glomerular filtration rate and ejection fraction score predicts contrast-induced acute kidney injury in patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease: insight from the TRACK-D study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Jing; Li Yi; Wang Xiaozeng; Yang Shuguang; Gao Chuanyu; Zhang Zheng; Yang Chengming

    2014-01-01

    Background The occurrence of contrast induced acute kidney injury (CIAKI) has a pronounced impact on morbidity and mortality.The aim of the present study was to appraise the diagnostic efficacy of age,estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and ejection fraction (AGEF) score (age/EF(%)+1 (if eGFR was <60 ml·min-1·1.73 m2)) as an predictor of CIAKI in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and concomitant chronic kidney disease (CKD).Methods The AGEF score was calculated for 2 998 patients with type 2 DM and concomitant CKD who had undergone coronary/peripheral arterial angiography.CIAKI was defined as an increase in sCr concentration of 0.5 mg/dl (44.2 mmol/L) or 25% above baseline at 72 hours after exposure to the contrast medium.Post hoc analysis was performed by stratifying the rate of CIAKI according to AGEF score tertiles.The diagnostic efficacy of the AGEF score for predicting CIAKI was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.Results The AGEF score ranged from 0.49 to 3.09.The AGEF score tertiles were defined as follows:AGEFlow ≤0.92 (n=1 006); 0.92 <AGEFmid ≤1.16 (n=1 000),and ACEFhigh >1.16 (n=992).The incidence of CIAKI was significantly different in patients with low,middle and high AGEF scores (AGEFlow=1.1%,AGEFmid=2.3% and AGEFhigh=5.8%,P <0.001).By multivariate analysis,AGEF score was an independent predictor of CIAKI (odds ratio=4.96,95% CI:2.32-10.58,P <0.01).ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.70 (95% CI:0.648-0.753,P <0.001).Conclusion The AGEF score is effective for stratifying risk of CIAKI in patients with DM and CKD undergoing coronary/peripheral arterial angiography.

  10. Arterial Ageing

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Seung-Jun; Park, Sung-Ha

    2013-01-01

    Arterial ageing is characterized by age associated degeneration and sclerosis of the media layer of the large arteries. However, besides ageing, clinical conditions, which enhance oxidative stress and inflammation act to accelerate the degree of arterial ageing. In this review, we summarized the pathophysiology and contributing factors that accelerate arterial ageing. Among them, we focused on hypertension, the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system and vascular inflammation which are modifiabl...

  11. GUIDE POUR L'INTERPRÉTATION DES ÉCAILLES ET L'ESTIMATION DE L'ÂGE CHEZ LES ALOSES (ALOSA SPP. DE LA FAÇADE ATLANTIQUE-EST ET DE LA MÉDITERRANÉE-OUEST. A GUIDE TO SCALE INTERPRETATION AND AGE ESTIMATION FOR THE EAST-ATLANTIC AND WEST-MEDITERRANEAN SHADS (ALOSA SPP..

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BAGLINIÈRE J. L.

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available L'objectif général de ce guide est de fournir un manuel d'utilisation et d'interprétation des écailles pour l'estimation de l'âge chez les aloses de l'Atlantique-Est et de Méditerranée-Ouest (Grande Alose, Alose feinte atlantique et méditerranéenne. Après un présentation rapide des espèces, populations et fleuves analysés, les écailles d'aloses et les méthodes de récolte, de préparation et de montage les concernant sont décrites en détail. Des définitions et un système de notation de l'âge standards sont donnés. La grande majorité des difficultés rencontrées pour l'interprétation des écailles sont analysées en proposant des solutions et en donnant certaines recommandations. L'ensemble de ce guide est largement illustré à l'aide d'exemples d'écailles typiques et atypiques choisis chez tous les taxons des différentes populations étudiées. The general objective of this guide is to provide a practical manual for interpreting scales and the estimation of age of Alosa from the East Atlantic and West-Mediterranean (Allis shad, Atlantic and Mediterranean shad. Following a brief presentation of the species, populations and rivers studied, the scales, sampling methods and their preparation for reading are described in detail. Definitions and a standard system of notating age are given. The majority of the difficulties encountered in the interpretation of scales are analysed, solutions proposed and some recommendations given. The whole guide is largely illustrative using examples of typical and atypical scales from the various taxons of the different populations studied.

  12. A Bayesian approach to estimate the prevalence of low height-for-age from the prevalence of low weight-for-age Uma abordagem Bayesiana para obter estimativas de prevalência de déficit de crescimento com base na prevalência de baixo peso para idade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael E. Reichenheim

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Victora et al. (1998 proposed the use of low weight-for-age prevalence to estimate the prevalence of height-for-age deficit in Brazilian children. This procedure was justified by the need to simplify methods used in the context of community health programs. From the same perspective, the present article broadens this proposal by using a Bayesian approach (based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods to deal with the imprecision resulting from Victora et al.'s model. In order to avoid invalid estimated prevalence values which can occur with the original linear model, truncation or a logit transformation of the prevalences are suggested. The Bayesian approach is illustrated using a community study as an example. Imprecision arising from methodological complexities in the community study design, such as multi-stage sampling and clustering, is easily handled within the Bayesian framework by introducing a hierarchical or multilevel model structure. Since growth deficit was also evaluated in the community study, the article may also serve to validate the procedure proposed by Victora et al.Victora et al. (1998 propuseram o uso de estimativas de prevalência de baixo peso para idade para a estimação de déficit de altura para idade em crianças brasileiras, em virtude da necessidade de simplificar métodos usados em programas de saúde comunitária. Este artigo tenta aprofundar o referido estudo ao propor uma abordagem Bayesiana com base no método de Simulação Estocástica via Cadeia de Markov (SEvCM, para lidar com questões de imprecisão ligadas à modelagem de estimação do déficit de estatura. Para evitar valores inválidos de prevalência estimados pelo modelo linear sugerido originalmente, propõem-se duas alternativas: um truncamento dos valores que extrapolem os limites plausíveis de prevalência ou uma transformação logito das prevalências. A abordagem Bayesiana é ilustrada com um exemplo de um estudo comunitário. Imprecis

  13. Happy Aging

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    梁秉中

    2009-01-01

    Aging is a normal physiological process in human life.The decline in the ability to repair and regenerate predisposes the aging person to develop disabling problems in the cardiovascular and skeletal systems.Full awareness of aging problems and advocations on the means to prevent their occurrence are mounting.European and US groups rely on scientific,target-oriented means to treat aging manifestations. Oriental medicine aims at prevention,using nutrition and exercise to maintain internal harmony.

  14. Population Aging

    OpenAIRE

    Weil, David N.

    2006-01-01

    Population aging is primarily the result of past declines in fertility, which produced a decades long period in which the ratio of dependents to working age adults was reduced. Rising old-age dependency in many countries represents the inevitable passing of this %u201Cdemographic dividend.%u201D Societies use three methods to transfer resources to people in dependent age groups: government, family, and personal saving. In developed countries, families are predominant in supporting children, w...

  15. Ageing Polulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Terkel; Lauridsen, Jørgen Trankjær; Bech, Mickael

    2013-01-01

    An ageing society is characterised by an increasing median age of the population. The purpose of this chapter is to document the existing knowledge about the association between population ageing and health care expenditure, and to supplement this overview by a summary of our original research. S...

  16. Creative Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, Charlene Lee; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Explores some divergent attitudes toward aging, negative as well as positive. Presents a neurophysiological framework to support the belief that aging is an active and creative process. Explores physical, psychological, and sociological aspects, and identifies three factors in the creative aging process. (Author/JAC)

  17. Skin Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Your skin changes as you age. You might notice wrinkles, age spots and dryness. Your skin also becomes thinner and loses fat, making it ... heal, too. Sunlight is a major cause of skin aging. You can protect yourself by staying out ...

  18. ESTIMATES OF WATER INGESTION FOR WOMEN IN PREGNANT, LACTATING AND NON-PREGNANT AND NON-LACTATING CHILD BEARING AGE GROUPS BASED ON USDA'S 1994-96, 1998 CONTINUING SURVEY OF FOOD INTAKE BY INDIVIDUALS (Journal Article)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Women in the child bearing age of 15 to 44 years and, in particular, pregnant and lactating women in this age cohort are considered a sensitive subpopulation when assessing risk from ingestion of contaminated water because ingested contaminants may pose a risk not only to the mot...

  19. Attitude Estimation or Quaternion Estimation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markley, F. Landis

    2003-01-01

    The attitude of spacecraft is represented by a 3x3 orthogonal matrix with unity determinant, which belongs to the three-dimensional special orthogonal group SO(3). The fact that all three-parameter representations of SO(3) are singular or discontinuous for certain attitudes has led to the use of higher-dimensional nonsingular parameterizations, especially the four-component quaternion. In attitude estimation, we are faced with the alternatives of using an attitude representation that is either singular or redundant. Estimation procedures fall into three broad classes. The first estimates a three-dimensional representation of attitude deviations from a reference attitude parameterized by a higher-dimensional nonsingular parameterization. The deviations from the reference are assumed to be small enough to avoid any singularity or discontinuity of the three-dimensional parameterization. The second class, which estimates a higher-dimensional representation subject to enough constraints to leave only three degrees of freedom, is difficult to formulate and apply consistently. The third class estimates a representation of SO(3) with more than three dimensions, treating the parameters as independent. We refer to the most common member of this class as quaternion estimation, to contrast it with attitude estimation. We analyze the first and third of these approaches in the context of an extended Kalman filter with simplified kinematics and measurement models.

  20. Skin aging:

    OpenAIRE

    Puizina-Ivić, Neira

    2008-01-01

    There are two main processes that induce skin aging: intrinsic and extrinsic. A stochastic process that implies random cell damage as a result of mutations during metabolic processes due to the production of free radicals is also implicated. Extrinsic aging is caused by environmental factors such as sun exposure, air pollution, smoking, alcohol abuse, and poor nutrition. Intrinsicaging reflects the genetic background and depends on time. Various expressions of intrinsic aging include smooth, ...

  1. Cost function estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, C K; Andersen, K; Kragh-Sørensen, P

    2000-01-01

    a regression model based on the quality of its predictions. In exploring the econometric issues, the objective of this study was to estimate a cost function in order to estimate the annual health care cost of dementia. Using different models, health care costs were regressed on the degree of dementia, sex, age...... on these criteria, a two-part model was chosen. In this model, the probability of incurring any costs was estimated using a logistic regression, while the level of the costs was estimated in the second part of the model. The choice of model had a substantial impact on the predicted health care costs, e.......g. for a mildly demented patient, the estimated annual health care costs varied from DKK 71 273 to DKK 90 940 (US$ 1 = DKK 7) depending on which model was chosen. For the two-part model, the estimated health care costs ranged from DKK 44714, for a very mildly demented patient, to DKK 197 840, for a severely...

  2. EASE-Grid Sea Ice Age

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides weekly estimates of sea ice age for the Arctic Ocean from remotely sensed sea ice motion and sea ice extent. The ice age data are derived...

  3. Population Aging and Inventive Activity

    OpenAIRE

    Irmen, Andreas; Litina, Anastasia

    2016-01-01

    This research empirically establishes and theoretically motivates the hypothesis that population aging has a hump-shaped effect on inventive activity. We estimate this hump-shaped relationship in a panel of 33 OECD countries over the period 1960-2012. The increasing part of the hump captures the awareness that population aging requires inventive activity to guarantee current and future standards of living. The decreasing part reflects the tendency of aging societies to lose dynamism and the w...

  4. Ageing and skills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Desjardins, Richard; Warnke, Arne Jonas

    of countries. Specifically, repeated measures will enable an analysis of whether there is skill gain and skill loss over the lifespan of cohorts and overtime between cohorts. This is especially important because age-skill profiles observed on the basis of a single cross-section are difficult to interpret....... With this as a backdrop, this paper has sought to provide an overview of what is known about age-skill profiles and to conduct an analysis that demonstrates how trend data based on repeated cross-sectional observations of direct measures of skill at the cohort level can be used to estimate skill gain and skill loss over...

  5. Healthy Ageing

    OpenAIRE

    Schans, Cees van der

    2015-01-01

    Presentatie gehouden bij de bijeenkomst voor het Regionaal Genootschap Fysiotherapie Het Noorden op 10 februari te Marum, over het belang van fysieke activiteit voor healthy ageing en de rol van de fysiotherapeut hierin

  6. Modeled ground water age distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

  7. Recognizing age-separated face images: humans and machines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daksha Yadav

    Full Text Available Humans utilize facial appearance, gender, expression, aging pattern, and other ancillary information to recognize individuals. It is interesting to observe how humans perceive facial age. Analyzing these properties can help in understanding the phenomenon of facial aging and incorporating the findings can help in designing effective algorithms. Such a study has two components--facial age estimation and age-separated face recognition. Age estimation involves predicting the age of an individual given his/her facial image. On the other hand, age-separated face recognition consists of recognizing an individual given his/her age-separated images. In this research, we investigate which facial cues are utilized by humans for estimating the age of people belonging to various age groups along with analyzing the effect of one's gender, age, and ethnicity on age estimation skills. We also analyze how various facial regions such as binocular and mouth regions influence age estimation and recognition capabilities. Finally, we propose an age-invariant face recognition algorithm that incorporates the knowledge learned from these observations. Key observations of our research are: (1 the age group of newborns and toddlers is easiest to estimate, (2 gender and ethnicity do not affect the judgment of age group estimation, (3 face as a global feature, is essential to achieve good performance in age-separated face recognition, and (4 the proposed algorithm yields improved recognition performance compared to existing algorithms and also outperforms a commercial system in the young image as probe scenario.

  8. Asteroid family ages

    CERN Document Server

    Spoto, Federica; Knezevic, Zoran

    2015-01-01

    A new family classification, based on a catalog of proper elements with $\\sim 384,000$ numbered asteroids and on new methods is available. For the $45$ dynamical families with $>250$ members identified in this classification, we present an attempt to obtain statistically significant ages: we succeeded in computing ages for $37$ collisional families. We used a rigorous method, including a least squares fit of the two sides of a V-shape plot in the proper semimajor axis, inverse diameter plane to determine the corresponding slopes, an advanced error model for the uncertainties of asteroid diameters, an iterative outlier rejection scheme and quality control. The best available Yarkovsky measurement was used to estimate a calibration of the Yarkovsky effect for each family. The results are presented separately for the families originated in fragmentation or cratering events, for the young, compact families and for the truncated, one-sided families. For all the computed ages the corresponding uncertainties are pro...

  9. Age Rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, G. J.

    2015-10-01

    The ages of rocks from the lunar highlands vary widely, even for a single rock sample. This makes it difficult to quantitatively test ideas for early lunar differentiation and formation of the crust. Lars Borg and Amy Gaffney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), and Charles Shearer (University of New Mexico) have devised a set of guidelines to apply to geochronological data that leads to a relative ranking of the reliability of the age determined for a sample. Applying their guidelines to existing data for lunar highland rocks shows an upper limit on rock ages between 4340 and 4370 million years. This is essentially the same as the so-called model ages of the formation of KREEP (a chemical component enriched in potassium, rare earth elements, and phosphorous) and of the formation of the deep source regions that melted to produce mare basalts. The numerous ages close to 4370 million years suggests a complicated and protracted cooling of the primordial lunar magma ocean or a widespread vigorous period of magmatic activity in the Moon.

  10. Estimating Utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Simler, Kenneth R.

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental premise of absolute poverty lines is that they represent the same level of utility through time and space. Disturbingly, a series of recent studies in middle- and low-income economies show that even carefully derived poverty lines rarely satisfy this premise. This article proposes...... an information-theoretic approach to estimating cost-of-basic-needs (CBN) poverty lines that are utility consistent. Applications to date illustrate that utility-consistent poverty measurements derived from the proposed approach and those derived from current CBN best practices often differ substantially...

  11. Fault Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoustrup, Jakob; Niemann, H.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a range of optimization based approaches to fault diagnosis. A variety of fault diagnosis prob-lems are reformulated in the so-called standard problem setup introduced in the literature on robust control. Once the standard problem formulations are given, the fault diagnosis pr...... problems can be solved by standard optimization tech-niques. The proposed methods include: (1) fault diagnosis (fault estimation, (FE)) for systems with model uncertainties; (2) FE for systems with parametric faults, and (3) FE for a class of nonlinear systems....

  12. Successful ageing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bülow, Morten Hillgaard; Söderqvist, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    prevention strategies; and the importance of individual, societal and scientific conceptualisations and understandings of ageing. By presenting an account of the recent historical uses, interpretations and critiques of the concept, the article unfolds the practical and normative complexities of ‘ successful......Since the late 1980s, the concept of ‘ successful ageing’ has set the frame for discourse about contemporary ageing research. Through an analysis of the reception to John W. Rowe and Robert L. Kahn's launch of the concept of ‘ successful ageing’ in 1987, this article maps out the important themes...

  13. Age management

    OpenAIRE

    Kratochvilová, Markéta

    2014-01-01

    The Bachelor‘s thesis focuses on Age Management and its areas of influence. This term is most often discussed in connection with a problem which is currently common for all European Union countries – the ageing of society. In the near future, the structure of society is very likely to be altered drastically as a consequence of this phenomenon and due to the severity of the effects, it is necessary to begin addressing this problem. The first part of the thesis concerns itself with processing d...

  14. Estimating the Counterfactual

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J. Blumberg PhD

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Time lags in receiving data from long-standing, large federal surveys complicate real-time estimation of the coverage effects of full Affordable Care Act (ACA implementation. Fast-turnaround household surveys fill some of the void in data on recent changes to insurance coverage, but they lack the historical data that allow analysts to account for trends that predate the ACA, economic fluctuations, and earlier public program expansions when predicting how many people would be uninsured without comprehensive health care reform. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS from 2000 to 2012 and the Health Reform Monitoring Survey (HRMS data for 2013 and 2015, this article develops an approach to estimate the number of people who would be uninsured in the absence of the ACA and isolates the change in coverage as of March 2015 that can be attributed to the ACA. We produce counterfactual forecasts of the number of uninsured absent the ACA for 9 age-income groups and compare these estimates with 2015 estimates based on HRMS relative coverage changes applied to CPS-based population estimates. As of March 2015, we find the ACA has reduced the number of uninsured adults by 18.1 million compared with the number who would have been uninsured at that time had the law not been implemented. That decline represents a 46% reduction in the number of nonelderly adults without insurance. The approach developed here can be applied to other federal data and timely surveys to provide a range of estimates of the overall effects of reform.

  15. Aging Secret

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of College Science Teaching, 2005

    2005-01-01

    The canny world of advertising has caught on to the free radical theory of aging, marketing a whole array of antioxidants for preventing anything from wrinkles to dry hair to reducing the risk of heart disease--promising to help slow the hands of time. Working with genetically engineered mice--to produce a natural antioxidant enzyme called…

  16. Age Spots

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... for treating age spots include: Improved appearance. Enhanced self-esteem. Promotion of better skin health. What you need ... 480px View Render 320px View Connect with ASDS: Facebook LinkedIn YouTube Twitter Quick Links About ASDS Advocacy ...

  17. Aging perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cosco, T.D.; Brehme, D.; Grigoruta, N.; Kaufmann, L.K.; Lemsalu, L.; Meex, R.C.R.; Schuurmans, A.T.; Sener, N.

    2014-01-01

    Despite the proliferation of successful ageing (SA) research, the literature is dominated by researcher-driven Anglophone conceptualisations. To date, lay perspectives of SA have not been examined in Europe or Turkey. The current study aims to conduct a mixed-methods examination of conceptualisation

  18. Successful ageing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kusumastuti, Sasmita; Derks, Marloes G M; Tellier, Siri;

    2016-01-01

    . METHODS: We performed a novel, hypothesis-free and quantitative analysis of citation networks exploring the literature on successful ageing that exists in the Web of Science Core Collection Database using the CitNetExplorer software. Outcomes were visualized using timeline-based citation patterns...

  19. 20 CFR 404.811 - The statement of earnings and benefit estimates you requested.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ...) Estimates of the monthly retirement (old-age), disability, dependents' and survivors' insurance benefits... on the age at which you plan to retire. The estimate will include the retirement (old-age) insurance... retirement age (currently age 65 to 67, depending on your year of birth) or at your current age if you...

  20. Estimation of Fractional Ages in Life Insurance from a New Perspective of Machine Learning%基于机器学习的寿险精算生命表函数估计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冯颖; 周晓剑

    2014-01-01

    The traditional form of Fractional Ages Assumptions (FAAs) are simple and easy to calculate,but they have the drawback that the force of mortality has large jumps on the integral age,and there is no guarantee that it can accurately capture the real trend of survival function.An FAA is essentially an effective fitting or regression of the data of integer age.As a classic technology in the field of machine learning,Least Squares Support Vector Regression Machine Technology (LSSVR) is widely used in the regression and analysis of statistical data.This research studies the life table data in the theory of life contingencies from the viewpoint of machine learning,which makes regression on data from survival function,and then build the force of mortality and the life expectancy function by the survival function successfully fitted.The validity of fitting about LSSVR model to survival function is validated by Makeham function,and compared with the three classic FAAs.The regression accuracy of LSSVR model outperforms that of the traditional FAAs.%传统的分数年龄假设(fractional age assumption,FAA)形式简单且计算容易,但它们却存在死力函数在整数年龄处有较大跳跃的缺点,并且无法保证能精确地捕捉到生存函数的真实趋势.最小二束支持向量回归机(least square support vector regression,LSSVR)作为机器学习领域的一项经典技术被广泛应用于对统计数据的回归与分析中.从机器学习的新视角来研究寿险精算理论中的生命表数据,对生存函数数据进行回归,并用成功拟合的生存函数构建死力函数及平均余命函数.LSSVR模型对生存函数拟合的有效性通过Makeham函数来进行验证,并与经典的三个FAA模型进行比较,实验表明,LSSVR模型的回归能力远高于经典的FAA模型.

  1. Golden Age

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2013-01-01

      Sometimes, a moment can announce the end of an age. The gold market is like that. Within two transaction days, the gold slumped by 13%and saw a 25%tumble from the high point in August 2011. According to the classic investment theory, a 20%-above decline means the shift from“a bull”to“a bear”market.   The super bear market of gold has lasted a dozen years. But the bull-to-bear shift was completed within only 20 minutes. Wall Street’s analysts and ordinary Chinese people had different understandings to the golden age.   Expecting a bear market, Wall Street continuously dumped gold, resulting in a diving of gold price. Seeing the benefits, leisure Chinese madams made a gold rush, causing a slight bounce of gold price. On April 23, renowned investment bank Goldman Sachs suspended the short sale. So,“Chinese aunts”beating back Wall Street’s analysts became the hottest topic online for the time being.   What are the decisive factors for the crash of gold price? Will the gold market complete a real bull-to-bear shift? Will the golden age of gold be farther or nearer?

  2. Aging Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore D Cosco

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Despite the proliferation of successful ageing (SA research, the literature is dominated by researcher-driven Anglophone conceptualisations. To date, lay perspectives of SA have not been examined in Europe or Turkey. The current study aims to conduct a mixed-methods examination of conceptualisations of SA in seven underrepresented countries. Using snowball sampling via social media sites, an online survey consisting of established closed-ended and open-ended items – translated into seven languages – was administered. Grounded theory methods and descriptive statistics were used to analyse qualitative and quantitative data, respectively.

  3. Ice ages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Earth's climate undergoes great changes in cycles of 104 to 105 years. Deep sea sediments contain proof of these changes. The critical parameter is the O18/O16 isotope ratio. The astronomical theory is discussed of ice ages based on the changes in the shape of the Earth's orbit around the sun. Forecasts for the future are given - in the coming years the climate is expected to get warmer owing to increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere, and then a long cooler period is expected to follow. (M.D.)

  4. Correlation between self-reported gestational age and ultrasound measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Annette Wind; Westergaard, Jes Grabow; Thomsen, Sten Grove;

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We studied the agreement between different measurements of gestational age, i.e. self-reported gestational age in the Danish National Birth Cohort Study, ultrasound-estimated gestational age from the medical records in one Danish county and gestational age from the Danish National...... Hospital Discharge Register. METHODS: The ultrasound-estimated gestational length was based on the size of the biparietal diameter. The ultrasound-estimated gestational length was related to corrected and uncorrected last menstrual period estimates in the Danish National Cohort Study......, and to the gestational length recorded in the Danish National Discharge Register. Non-parametric statistics were used in the analysis. RESULTS: The gestational ages estimated by ultrasound were 2-3 days shorter than gestational ages estimated by the other methods. The gestational ages recorded by the Discharge Register...

  5. Phylogenetic estimation of timescales using ancient DNA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molak, Martyna; Lorenzen, Eline; Shapiro, Beth;

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, ancient DNA has increasingly been used for estimating molecular timescales, particularly in studies of substitution rates and demographic histories. Molecular clocks can be calibrated using temporal information from ancient DNA sequences. This information comes from the ages...

  6. 11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting...

  7. Aging and intuitive physics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Léoni, Véronique; Mullet, Etienne; Chasseigne, Gerard

    2002-07-01

    The present study was aimed at comparing the judgment capacities manifested by young adults, middle-aged adults, and elderly people in an everyday life setting implying the consideration of direct as well as inverse relationships between the cues and the criterion. The chosen situation was borrowed from elementary physics and concerned the relationships between mass, volume and density. In forming their estimations of mass, all elderly people were able to use volume and density information. In addition, most of them were able to combine these pieces of information in a correct, multiplicative way. In forming their estimations of volume, all elderly people were able to use mass and density information but a majority of them used the density information in a direct way. By contrast, most young and middle-aged adults correctly used the density information in an inverse way. The findings strengthen and extend the case made by Chasseigne et al. [Acta Psychologica 97 (1997) 235] as regards the trouble elderly people face in using inverse relationships in a judgment situation. The difficulty elderly people face is not confined to learning settings. It may also be observed in ecological, non-learning environments, where the relationships considered do not entirely depend on the experimenter's choice.

  8. Introduction to variance estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Wolter, Kirk M

    2007-01-01

    We live in the information age. Statistical surveys are used every day to determine or evaluate public policy and to make important business decisions. Correct methods for computing the precision of the survey data and for making inferences to the target population are absolutely essential to sound decision making. Now in its second edition, Introduction to Variance Estimation has for more than twenty years provided the definitive account of the theory and methods for correct precision calculations and inference, including examples of modern, complex surveys in which the methods have been used successfully. The book provides instruction on the methods that are vital to data-driven decision making in business, government, and academe. It will appeal to survey statisticians and other scientists engaged in the planning and conduct of survey research, and to those analyzing survey data and charged with extracting compelling information from such data. It will appeal to graduate students and university faculty who...

  9. The age of the elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper is devoted to nuclear cosmochronology. The age of the Universe is estimated with the aid of radioactive nuclear-nuclear chronometers (NC). For calculations it is required that the proportion in which the appropriate pair of NC is at present ('relative abundance') and the proportion for the moment of their formation ('relative production') should be known. A short description is given of production of elements in the process of star evolution. The 'relative production' is calculated theoretically. The relative abundance is determined from experiments, mainly from meteorites. Recentl Lunar rocks have been also coming into use. The following elements are chosen as pairs of chronometers: Th-232/U-238; U-235/U-238; Pu-244/Th-232; J-129/J-127. Using this method the authors have determined the age of elements from 7 to 15 billion years, the best estimate being approximately 10 billion years. This age is quite in an agreement with calculations made by other methods

  10. Radiation dose estimates for radiopharmaceuticals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stabin, M.G.; Stubbs, J.B.; Toohey, R.E. [Oak Ridge Inst. of Science and Education, TN (United States). Radiation Internal Dose Information Center

    1996-04-01

    Tables of radiation dose estimates based on the Cristy-Eckerman adult male phantom are provided for a number of radiopharmaceuticals commonly used in nuclear medicine. Radiation dose estimates are listed for all major source organs, and several other organs of interest. The dose estimates were calculated using the MIRD Technique as implemented in the MIRDOSE3 computer code, developed by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Radiation Internal Dose Information Center. In this code, residence times for source organs are used with decay data from the MIRD Radionuclide Data and Decay Schemes to produce estimates of radiation dose to organs of standardized phantoms representing individuals of different ages. The adult male phantom of the Cristy-Eckerman phantom series is different from the MIRD 5, or Reference Man phantom in several aspects, the most important of which is the difference in the masses and absorbed fractions for the active (red) marrow. The absorbed fractions for flow energy photons striking the marrow are also different. Other minor differences exist, but are not likely to significantly affect dose estimates calculated with the two phantoms. Assumptions which support each of the dose estimates appears at the bottom of the table of estimates for a given radiopharmaceutical. In most cases, the model kinetics or organ residence times are explicitly given. The results presented here can easily be extended to include other radiopharmaceuticals or phantoms.

  11. Malaria transmission rates estimated from serological data.

    OpenAIRE

    M.N. Burattini; Massad, E.; Coutinho, F. A.

    1993-01-01

    A mathematical model was used to estimate malaria transmission rates based on serological data. The model is minimally stochastic and assumes an age-dependent force of infection for malaria. The transmission rates estimated were applied to a simple compartmental model in order to mimic the malaria transmission. The model has shown a good retrieving capacity for serological and parasite prevalence data.

  12. Estimations of actual availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adaptation of working environment (social, organizational, physical and physical) should assure higher level of workers availability and consequently higher level of workers performance. A special theoretical model for description of connections between environmental factors, human availability and performance was developed and validated. The central part of the model is evaluations of human actual availability in the real working situation or fitness for duties self-estimation. The model was tested in different working environments. On the numerous of 2000 workers standardized values and critical limits for Availability questionnaire were defined. Standardized method was used in identification of the most important impact of environmental factors. Identified problems were eliminated by investments in the organization in modification of selection and training procedures in humanization of working environment. For workers with behavioural and health problems individual consultancy was offered. Described method is a tool for identification of impacts. In combination with behavioural analyses and mathematical analyses of connections offers possibilities to keep adequate level of human availability and fitness for duty in each real working situation. Model should be a tool for achieving adequate level of nuclear safety by keeping the adequate level of workers availability and fitness for duty. For each individual worker possibility for estimation of level of actual fitness for duty is possible. Effects of prolonged work and additional tasks should be evaluated. Evaluations of health status effects and ageing are possible on the individual level. (author)

  13. Estimations of actual availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adaptation of working environment (social, organizational, physical and physical) should assure higher level of workers' availability and consequently higher level of workers' performance. A special theoretical model for description of connections between environmental factors, human availability and performance was developed and validated. The central part of the model is evaluations of human actual availability in the real working situation or fitness for duties self-estimation. The model was tested in different working environments. On the numerous (2000) workers, standardized values and critical limits for an availability questionnaire were defined. Standardized method was used in identification of the most important impact of environmental factors. Identified problems were eliminated by investments in the organization in modification of selection and training procedures in humanization of working .environment. For workers with behavioural and health problems individual consultancy was offered. The described method is a tool for identification of impacts. In combination with behavioural analyses and mathematical analyses of connections, it offers possibilities to keep adequate level of human availability and fitness for duty in each real working situation. The model should be a tool for achieving adequate level of nuclear safety by keeping the adequate level of workers' availability and fitness for duty. For each individual worker possibility for estimation of level of actual fitness for duty is possible. Effects of prolonged work and additional tasks should be evaluated. Evaluations of health status effects and ageing are possible on the individual level. (author)

  14. Lifetime estimation methods in power transformer insulation

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Ali Taghikhani

    2012-01-01

    Mineral oil in the power transformer has an important role in the cooling, insulation aging and chemical reactions such as oxidation. Oil temperature increases will cause quality loss. The oil should be regularly control in necessary time. Studies have been done on power transformers oils that are used in different age in Iranian power grid to identify the true relationship between age and other characteristics of power transformer oil. In this paper the first method to estimate the life of p...

  15. Population aging and legal retirement age

    OpenAIRE

    Lacomba, Juan Antonio; Lagos, Francisco Miguel

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of population aging on the preferred legal retirement age. What is revealed is the crucial role that the indirect ???macro??? effects resulting from a change in the legal retirement age play in the optimal decision. Two Social Security systems are studied. Under a defined contribution scheme aging lowers the preferred legal retirement age. However, under a defined pension scheme the retirement age is delayed. This result shows the relevance of correctly c...

  16. SURFACE VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR INFILTRATION PARAMETER ESTIMATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volume balance calculations used in surface irrigation engineering analysis require estimates of surface storage. These calculations are often performed by estimating upstream depth with a normal depth formula. That assumption can result in significant volume estimation errors when upstream flow d...

  17. Liu Estimator Based on An M Estimator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hatice ŞAMKAR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: In multiple linear regression analysis, multicollinearity and outliers are two main problems. In the presence of multicollinearity, biased estimation methods like ridge regression, Stein estimator, principal component regression and Liu estimator are used. On the other hand, when outliers exist in the data, the use of robust estimators reducing the effect of outliers is prefered. Material and Methods: In this study, to cope with this combined problem of multicollinearity and outliers, it is studied Liu estimator based on M estimator (Liu M estimator. In addition, mean square error (MSE criterion has been used to compare Liu M estimator with Liu estimator based on ordinary least squares (OLS estimator. Results: OLS, Huber M, Liu and Liu M estimates and MSEs of these estimates have been calculated for a data set which has been taken form a study of determinants of physical fitness. Liu M estimator has given the best performance in the data set. It is found as both MSE (?LM = 0.0078< MSE (?M = 0.0508 and MSE (?LM = 0.0078< MSE (?L= 0.0085. Conclusion: When there is both outliers and multicollinearity in a dataset, while using of robust estimators reduces the effect of outliers, it could not solve problem of multicollinearity. On the other hand, using of biased methods could solve the problem of multicollinearity, but there is still the effect of outliers on the estimates. In the occurence of both multicollinearity and outliers in a dataset, it has been shown that combining of the methods designed to deal with this problems is better than using them individually.

  18. First in the Class? Age and the Education Production Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cascio, Elizabeth U.; Schanzenbach, Diane Whitmore

    2016-01-01

    We estimate the effects of relative age in kindergarten using data from an experiment where children of the same age were randomly assigned to different kindergarten classmates. We exploit the resulting experimental variation in relative age in conjunction with variation in expected kindergarten entry age based on birth date to account for…

  19. Aging and Aged in Organized Crime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amir, Menachem

    1989-01-01

    Examines problems of the aged in organized crime, basing discussion on organized crime bosses over age 60 operating in Italy, the United States, and Israel. Looks at problems stemming from normative system in organized crime, role of the aged, intergenerational problems, fears of the aged, excuses and justifications, standards of life, and…

  20. Trends of Age at Menarche and Association with Body Mass Index in Chinese School-Aged Girls, 1985-2010.

    OpenAIRE

    Song, Yi; Ma, Jun; Wang, Hai-Jun; Wang, Zhiqiang; Hu, Peijin; Zhang, Bing; Agardh, Anette

    2014-01-01

    To estimate the shifts in age at menarche from 1985 to 2010, compare the differences of average age at menarche between urban and rural groups, and determine the association of menarche with body mass index (BMI).

  1. Incisor wear and age in Yellowstone bison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, D.A.; Gogan, P.J.P.; Podruzny, K.M.; Olexa, E.M.

    2005-01-01

    Biologists commonly use tooth eruption and wear patterns or cementum annuli techniques to estimate age of ungulates. However, in some situations the accuracy or sampling procedures of either approach are undesirable. We investigated the progression of several quantitative measures of wear with age, using permanent first incisors from Yellowstone bison (Bison bison), and tested for differences between sexes and herds. We further investigated the relationship of wear and age to explore an age-estimation method. Labial-lingual width (LLW) correlated best with assigned age (r2=0.66, males; r2=0.76 females). Labial-lingual width differed between sexes, with females showing ∼0.2 mm more wear than males. Additionally, differences in rate of wear existed between bison of the northern and central Yellowstone herds (1.2 and 0.9 mm/year, respectively). We developed a regression formula to test the power of LLW as an estimator of Yellowstone bison age. Our method provided estimated ages within 1 year of the assigned age 73% and 82% of the time for female and male bison, respectively.

  2. Oral Health and Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Oral Health and Aging Oral Health and Aging Summer 2016 Table of Contents Jerrold H. Epstein, ... they may need. Read More "Oral Health and Aging" Articles Oral Health and Aging / 4 Myths About ...

  3. Skin Care and Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page please turn Javascript on. Skin Care and Aging How Aging Affects Skin Your skin changes with age. It ... if they bother you. See additional resources on aging skin, including information on treatment options, specific conditions, ...

  4. Facial aging: A clinical classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiffman Melvin

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this classification of facial aging is to have a simple clinical method to determine the severity of the aging process in the face. This allows a quick estimate as to the types of procedures that the patient would need to have the best results. Procedures that are presently used for facial rejuvenation include laser, chemical peels, suture lifts, fillers, modified facelift and full facelift. The physician is already using his best judgment to determine which procedure would be best for any particular patient. This classification may help to refine these decisions.

  5. Effects of radiation on aging in atomic bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Promotion of aging was studied on women over the age of 40 years exposed within 1.4 km from the center of the explosion in Nagasaki in whom exposure doses were proved to be over 100 rad (a exposed group). Women exposed over 2.5 km whose ages were the same as those of the exposed group were selected as controls. The age of the exposed group was estimated from stepwise regression equation based on the measurement of hair, grip strength, systolic blood pressure, an amount of potassium in the whole body, and erythrocyte count, which changed remarkably with time. The estimated age of the exposed group was over one year older than that of controls. Especially, mean estimated age of the exposed group in their forties (the age at the time of exposure, teens) was 1.4 year older than the actual age, which suggests that radiation promote aging. (Tsunoda, M.)

  6. Prenatal and early life influences on epigenetic age in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simpkin, Andrew J; Hemani, Gibran; Suderman, Matthew;

    2016-01-01

    DNA methylation based biomarkers of aging are highly correlated with actual age. Departures of methylation-estimated age from actual age can be used to define epigenetic measures of child development or age acceleration in adults. Very little is known about genetic or environmental determinants...... of these epigenetic measures of aging. We obtained DNA methylation profiles using Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChips across five time points in 1018 mother-child pairs from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Using the Horvath age estimation method, we calculated epigenetic age for these samples....... Age acceleration (AA) was defined as the residuals from regressing epigenetic age on actual age. AA was tested for associations with cross-sectional clinical variables in children. We identified associations between AA and sex, birth weight, birth by caesarean section and several maternal...

  7. A Protocol for Aging Anurans Using Skeletochronology

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCreary, Brome; Pearl, Christopher A.; Adams, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    Age distribution information can be an important part of understanding the biology of any population. Age estimates collected from the annual growth rings found in tooth and bone cross sections, often referred to as Lines of Arrested Growth (LAGs), have been used in the study of various animals. In this manual, we describe in detail all necessary steps required to obtain estimates of age from anuran bone cross sections via skeletochronological assessment. We include comprehensive descriptions of how to fix and decalcify toe specimens (phalanges), process a phalange prior to embedding, embed the phalange in paraffin, section the phalange using a microtome, stain and mount the cross sections of the phalange and read the LAGs to obtain age estimates.

  8. Ensemble estimators for multivariate entropy estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Sricharan, Kumar

    2012-01-01

    The problem of estimation of density functionals like entropy and mutual information has received much attention in the statistics and information theory communities. A large class of estimators of functionals of the probability density suffer from the curse of dimensionality, wherein the exponent in the MSE rate of convergence decays increasingly slowly as the dimension $d$ of the samples increases. In particular, the rate is often glacially slow of order $O(T^{-{\\gamma}/{d}})$, where $T$ is the number of samples, and $\\gamma>0$ is a rate parameter. Examples of such estimators include kernel density estimators, $k$-NN density estimators, $k$-NN entropy estimators, intrinsic dimension estimators and other examples. In this paper, we propose a weighted convex combination of an ensemble of such estimators, where optimal weights can be chosen such that the weighted estimator converges at a much faster dimension invariant rate of $O(T^{-1})$. Furthermore, we show that these optimal weights can be determined by so...

  9. Recent decline in age at breast development: the Copenhagen Puberty Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aksglaede, Lise; Sørensen, Kaspar; Petersen, Jørgen H;

    2009-01-01

    cohorts. RESULTS: Onset of puberty, defined as mean estimated age at attainment of glandular breast tissue (Tanner breast stage 2+), occurred significantly earlier in the 2006 cohort (estimated mean age: 9.86 years) when compared with the 1991 cohort (estimated mean age: 10.88 years). The difference...

  10. Age Prejudice of 'Act Your Age.'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponzo, Zander

    1978-01-01

    Many life-style decisions are often adversely influenced by prejudicial attitudes, norms, and laws about age. The relationship between ways of thinking about developmental tasks and age prejudice is discussed. (Author)

  11. Estimação de componentes de co-variância para pesos corporais do nascimento aos 365 dias de idade de bovinos Guzerá empregando-se modelos de regressão aleatória Estimates of covariance components for body weights from birth to 365 days of age in Guzera cattle, using random regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciele Cristina Pelicioni

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Um total de 19.770 pesos corporais de bovinos Guzerá, do nascimento aos 365 dias de idade, pertencentes ao banco de dados da Associação Brasileira dos Criadores de Zebu (ABCZ foi analisado com os objetivos de comparar diferentes estruturas de variâncias residuais, considerando 1, 18, 28 e 53 classes residuais e funções de variância de ordens quadrática a quíntica; e estimar funções de co-variância de diferentes ordens para os efeitos genético aditivo direto, genético materno, de ambiente permanente de animal e de mãe e parâmetros genéticos para os pesos corporais usando modelos de regressão aleatória. Os efeitos aleatórios foram modelados por regressões polinomiais em escala de Legendre com ordens variando de linear a quártica. Os modelos foram comparados pelo teste de razão de verossimilhança e pelos critérios de Informação de Akaike e de Informação Bayesiano de Schwarz. O modelo com 18 classes heterogêneas foi o que melhor se ajustou às variâncias residuais, de acordo com os testes estatísticos, porém, o modelo com função de variância de quinta ordem também mostrou-se apropriado. Os valores de herdabilidade direta estimados foram maiores que os encontrados na literatura, variando de 0,04 a 0,53, mas seguiram a mesma tendência dos estimados pelas análises unicaracterísticas. A seleção para peso em qualquer idade melhoraria o peso em todas as idades no intervalo estudado.A total of 19,770 body weight records of Guzera cattle, measured from birth to 365 days of age and supplied by the Brazilian Zebu Breeders Association, was analyzed with the following objectives of: 1 to compare different residual variances through step functions with 1, 18, 28 and 53 classes and through variance functions with orders ranging from two to five using ordinary polynomials and 2 to estimate covariance functions considering different orders for direct additive genetic effects, animal permanent environmental and maternal

  12. Avoiding Aging? Social Psychology's Treatment of Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Anne E.; Redmond, Rebecca; von Rohr, Carmen

    2012-01-01

    Population aging, in conjunction with social and cultural transformations of the life course, has profound implications for social systems--from large-scale structures to micro-level processes. However, much of sociology remains fairly quiet on issues of age and aging, including the subfield of social psychology that could illuminate the impact of…

  13. Old age psychiatry in the modern age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, James P

    2015-11-01

    Old age psychiatry services globally are under threat. The discipline enjoyed its heyday in the two decades bridging the millennium. More recently there has been a move to integrate old age services with those of working age adults, to create 'ageless' services. Evidence is beginning to accumulate that this is a bad idea.

  14. Direct Density Derivative Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Hiroaki; Noh, Yung-Kyun; Niu, Gang; Sugiyama, Masashi

    2016-06-01

    Estimating the derivatives of probability density functions is an essential step in statistical data analysis. A naive approach to estimate the derivatives is to first perform density estimation and then compute its derivatives. However, this approach can be unreliable because a good density estimator does not necessarily mean a good density derivative estimator. To cope with this problem, in this letter, we propose a novel method that directly estimates density derivatives without going through density estimation. The proposed method provides computationally efficient estimation for the derivatives of any order on multidimensional data with a hyperparameter tuning method and achieves the optimal parametric convergence rate. We further discuss an extension of the proposed method by applying regularized multitask learning and a general framework for density derivative estimation based on Bregman divergences. Applications of the proposed method to nonparametric Kullback-Leibler divergence approximation and bandwidth matrix selection in kernel density estimation are also explored. PMID:27140943

  15. ON INTERVAL ESTIMATING REGRESSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Michalak

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new look on the well-known nonparametric regression estimator – the Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator. Though it was invented 50 years ago it still being applied in many fields. After these yearsfoundations of uncertainty theory – interval analysis – are joined with this estimator. The paper presents the background of Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator together with the basis of interval analysis and shows the interval Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator.

  16. Estimation of the amount of telomere molecules in different human age groups and the telomere increasing effect of acupuncture and shiatsu on St.36, using synthesized basic units of the human telomere molecules as reference control substances for the bi-digital O-ring test resonance phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omura, Y; Shimotsura, Y; Ooki, M; Noguchi, T

    1998-01-01

    who had exceptionally high telomere levels often had excellent physical conditions or mental acumen). The amounts of measured TTAGGG and CCCTAA molecules before and after acupuncture on St. 36 in adenocarcinomas and small cell carcinoma coexisting in the lung of a 54-yr.-old Asian male were: telomere in adenocarcinoma decreased from 950 ng to 750 ng and telomere in small cell carcinoma decreased from 770 ng to 600 ng. When the cancer treatment is effective, the amount of telomere is reduced towards the value of the normal internal organ. We found that acupuncture on St.36 on apparently normal subjects increased the telomere levels up to a maximum of more than 2 times their telomere levels prior to the treatment, depending on the method of treatment, but frequently increases were between 60% to 100%. Strong Shiatsu performed on St. 36 produced a somewhat lesser effect than acupuncture. We also determined the amounts of TTAGGG and CCCTAA molecules non-invasively in 3 mummified Egyptian sisters from the 8th Century BC on exhibit at the Museo Egizio in Turin, Italy in order to estimate their approximate ages (at the time of death). The amounts of body telomere were 500 ng, 550 ng, and 750 ng. For the prehistoric Iceman (about 3350 B.C. to 3310 B.C) discovered in 1991 in the Italian Otzal Alps at about 3,200 meters altitude, estimated body telomere was about 400 ng and telomere in brain and heart was 1600 ng, similar to that of a contemporary human being. Although these studies are preliminary, the findings may have potential applications not only in anti-aging, cancer treatments, and pathophysiology of brain and heart, but also for the estimation of the difference in the ages of cadavers studied in archeology and forensic medicine.

  17. Maternal age and fetal loss: population based register linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo; Wohlfahrt, J; Christens, P;

    2000-01-01

    To estimate the association between maternal age and fetal death (spontaneous abortion, ectopic pregnancy, stillbirth), taking into account a woman's reproductive history.......To estimate the association between maternal age and fetal death (spontaneous abortion, ectopic pregnancy, stillbirth), taking into account a woman's reproductive history....

  18. Estimation of caries experience by multiple imputation and direct standardization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuller, A.A.; Buuren, S. van

    2014-01-01

    Valid estimates of caries experience are needed to monitor oral population health. Obtaining such estimates in practice is often complicated by nonresponse and missing data. The goal of this study was to estimate caries experiences in a population of children aged 5 and 11 years, in the presence of

  19. Estimation of Caries Experience by Multiple Imputation and Direct Standardization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuller, A. A.; van Buuren, S.

    2014-01-01

    Valid estimates of caries experience are needed to monitor oral population health. Obtaining such estimates in practice is often complicated by nonresponse and missing data. The goal of this study was to estimate caries experiences in a population of children aged 5 and 11 years, in the presence of

  20. Healthy Aging -- Sexual Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... address Submit Home > Healthy Aging > Sexual health Healthy Aging This information in Spanish ( en español ) Sexual health ... to discuss with your doctor. Sexual Health and Aging: Keep the Passion Alive (Copyright © Mayo Foundation) - This ...

  1. National Council on Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Centers Center for Benefits Access Center for Healthy Aging Donate Skip to Content a A Menu Economic ... Seniors Home Equity Older Workers Money Management Healthy Aging Falls Prevention Chronic Disease Management Flu + You Aging ...

  2. Exercise and age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Age and exercise ... It is never too late to start exercising. Exercise has benefits at any age. Don't worry ... as you age. The right kind of regular exercise can also reduce your risk of heart disease, ...

  3. Multifractal age? Multifractal analysis of cardiac interbeat intervals in assessing of healthy aging

    CERN Document Server

    Makowiec, Danuta; Wdowczyk-Szulc, Joanna; Zarczynska-Buchowiecka, Marta; Gruchal, Marcin; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej

    2013-01-01

    24-hour Holter recordings of 124 healthy people at different age are studied. The nocturnal signals of young people reveal the presence of the multiplicative structure. This structure is significantly weaker in diurnal signals and becomes less evident for elderly people. Multifractal analysis allows us to propose qualitative and quantitative methods to estimate the advancement of the aging process for healthy humans.

  4. Estimation of excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model%应用调整Serfling回归模型估计北京市5岁以下儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额病例数

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贾蕾; 王小莉; 吴双胜; 马建新; 李洪军; 高志勇; 王全意

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate the excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing from 1 January 2011 to 23 May 2015.Methods The excess numbers of diarrheal cases among the children aged <5 years were estimated by using weekly outpatient visit data from two children' s hospital in Beijing and adjusted Serfling regression model.Results The incidence peaks of viral diarrhea were during 8th-10th week and 40th-42nd week in 2011,40th-4th week in 2012,43rd-49th week in 2013 and 45th week in 2014 to 11th week in 2015 respectively.The excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in the two children's hospital were 911(95%CI:261-1 561),1 998(95%CI:1 250-2 746),1 645 (95%CI:891-2 397),2 806(95%CI:1 938-3 674) and 1 822(95% CI:614-3 031) respectively,accounting for 40.38% (95% CI:11.57%-69.19%),44.21%(95%CI:27.66%-60.77%),45.08%(95%CI:24.42%-65.69%),60.87% (95%CI:42.04%-79.70%) and 66.62% (95%CI:22.45%-110.82%) of total outpatient visits due to diarrhea during 2011-2015,respectively.Totally,the excess number of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing was estimated to be 18 731(95%CI:10 106-27 354) from 2011 to 23 May 2015.Conclusions Winter is the season of viral diarrhea for children aged <5 years.The adjusted Serfling regression model analysis suggested that close attention should be paid to the etiologic variation of viruses causing acute gastroenteritis,especially the etiologic variation of norovirus.%目的 构建调整Serf ling回归模型,估计北京市2011年至2015年5月23日病毒性腹泻相关<5岁儿童超额腹泻病例数.方法 利用北京市2家儿童专科医院<5岁儿童急性腹泻周就诊病例数,拟合调整Serf ling回归模型,估计其病毒性腹泻相关超额病例数.结果 北京市2011年第8~10周、40~ 42周,2012年第40~46周,2013年第43~49周,2014年第45周直到2015年第11

  5. Spectral ageing a new age perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Rawlings, S; Rawlings, Katherine M Blundell & Steve

    2002-01-01

    We present an up-to-date critique of the physical basis for the spectral ageing method. We find that the number of cases where this method may be meaningfully applied to deduce the ages of classical double radio sources is small indeed. This critique is much more than merely a re-expression of anxieties about the calibration of spectral ageing (which have been articulated by others in the past).

  6. Information Geometric Density Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Ke; Marchand-Maillet, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    We investigate kernel density estimation where the kernel function varies from point to point. Density estimation in the input space means to find a set of coordinates on a statistical manifold. This novel perspective helps to combine efforts from information geometry and machine learning to spawn a family of density estimators. We present example models with simulations. We discuss the principle and theory of such density estimation.

  7. Software Cost Estimation Review

    OpenAIRE

    Ongere, Alphonce

    2013-01-01

    Software cost estimation is the process of predicting the effort, the time and the cost re-quired to complete software project successfully. It involves size measurement of the soft-ware project to be produced, estimating and allocating the effort, drawing the project schedules, and finally, estimating overall cost of the project. Accurate estimation of software project cost is an important factor for business and the welfare of software organization in general. If cost and effort estimat...

  8. New concept of age(ing: Prospective age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devedžić Mirjana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available While the last century was the century of world population growth, according to demographers, the XXI century will be century of population aging. Statistics undoubtedly show that number of elderly will continue it’s growth in the future. If old age is seen as period of life with reduced physical and mental capabilities and increased disability, and demographic aging as increase of dependent population, trends are quite disturbing, at least in certain societal segments. In developed countries, this population category is no longer treated as passive or as a "burden of society" and efforts are made for better social inclusion of older people. In contrast to growing interest in this phenomenon, the concepts that define the aging of the population remained stagnant. The aim of this paper is to introduce into domestic literature the term "prospective age" as a dynamic category which is more affected with socio-historical conditions, not only with biological as traditional definition of aging suggested. Papers written by Sanderson and Scherbov offer new methodological options for study of population aging, because it takes into account the biometric rather than chronological approach. Calculation of prospective years is a simple operation that requires pair of the same number of remained life expectancy from life tables for two different periods (the year of concern is index, and the one we are comparing with is standard year, so that phrase "40s is the new 30s" or "70s the new 60s" gets scientific foundation. Average remaining years of life represent a realistic indicator suggesting increased capacity, activity and vitality of individuals, which is due to accepted demographic parameters still considered old. „Prospective threshold“ is defined as the age when life expectancy falls below 15 years (it is subjective choice made by Sanderson and Scherbov, which is also used in this paper and during the elaboration of these ideas three demographic

  9. On the kinematic age of RZ Psc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potravnov, I. S.; Grinin, V. P.

    2013-11-01

    RZ Psc belongs to the family of young UX Ori stars whose photometric activity is due to strong extinction variations in the circumstellar disks surrounding them. However, in contrast to all the remaining stars of this type, no evidence of youth has been detected for RZ Psc until recently. A rough estimate of the star's kinematic age was made for the first time in our previous paper (Grinin et al. 2010). It shows that RZ Psc is intermediate in its evolutionary status between young stars in Orion and stars with debris disks. In this paper, we provide a refined estimate of the kinematic age for the star confirming this conclusion. According to this estimate, the age of RZ Psc is approximately 25 ± 5 Myr at M * = 1 M ⊙.

  10. Adaptive kernel density estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe Van Kerm

    2003-01-01

    This insert describes the module akdensity. akdensity extends the official kdensity that estimates density functions by the kernel method. The extensions are of two types: akdensity allows the use of an "adaptive kernel" approach with varying, rather than fixed, bandwidths; and akdensity estimates pointwise variability bands around the estimated density functions. Copyright 2003 by Stata Corporation.

  11. Estimation of genome length

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The genome length is a fundamental feature of a species. This note outlined the general concept and estimation method of the physical and genetic length. Some formulae for estimating the genetic length were derived in detail. As examples, the genome genetic length of Pinus pinaster Ait. and the genetic length of chromosome Ⅵ of Oryza sativa L. were estimated from partial linkage data.

  12. ESTIMATING IRRIGATION COSTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Having accurate estimates of the cost of irrigation is important when making irrigation decisions. Estimates of fixed costs are critical for investment decisions. Operating cost estimates can assist in decisions regarding additional irrigations. This fact sheet examines the costs associated with ...

  13. Reliable Re-Os age for molybdenite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Katsuhiko; Qi-Lu; Shimizu, Hiroshi; Masuda, Akimasa

    1993-04-01

    Re-Os ages for four molybdenites were determined by our newly developed method with isotope dilution-mass spectrometry. Special caution was given to achieve osmium isotopic equilibration between sample and "spike" during chemical treatment. Re-Os data for molybdenites from Mt. Mulgine (Australia), Mätäsvaara (Finland), Preissac (Canada), and Climax (USA) define ages of 2790 Ma, 2600 Ma, 2680 Ma, and 26.6 Ma, respectively. The reproducibilities of our Re-Os age determination are shown to be within 2% by the replicate analyses for Mt. Mulgine, Mätäsvaara, and Preissac samples. The ages obtained are in good agreement with reference ages estimated for wall rocks of molybdenite deposits concerned. Thus, with careful experimental procedure, it appears that the Re-Os geochronometer can be used to reliably determine the age of molybdenite.

  14. Reliable Re-Os age for molybdenite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzuki, Katsuhiko (Univ. of Tokyo (Japan)); Lu, Q.; Masuda, Akimasa (Univ. of Electro-Communications, Tokyo (Japan)); Shimizu, Hiroshi (Kumamoto Univ. (Japan))

    1993-04-01

    Re-Os ages for four molybdenites were determined by the authors' newly developed method with isotope dilution-mass spectrometry. Special caution was given to achieve osmium isotopic equilibration between sample and spike during chemical treatment. Re-Os data for molybdenites from Mt. Mulgine (Australia), Maetaesvaara (Finland), Preissac (Canada), and Climax (US) define ages of 2790 Ma, 2600 Ma, 2680 Ma, and 26.6 Ma, respectively. The reproducibilities of their Re-Os age determination are shown to be within 2% by the replicate analyses for Mt. Mulgine, Maetaesvaara, and Preissac samples. The ages obtained are in good agreement with reference ages estimated for wall rocks of molybdenite deposits concerned. Thus, with careful experimental procedure, it appears that the Re-Os geochronometer can be used to reliably determine the age of molybdenite. 32 refs., 1 tab.

  15. The steel scrap age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauliuk, Stefan; Milford, Rachel L; Müller, Daniel B; Allwood, Julian M

    2013-04-01

    Steel production accounts for 25% of industrial carbon emissions. Long-term forecasts of steel demand and scrap supply are needed to develop strategies for how the steel industry could respond to industrialization and urbanization in the developing world while simultaneously reducing its environmental impact, and in particular, its carbon footprint. We developed a dynamic stock model to estimate future final demand for steel and the available scrap for 10 world regions. Based on evidence from developed countries, we assumed that per capita in-use stocks will saturate eventually. We determined the response of the entire steel cycle to stock saturation, in particular the future split between primary and secondary steel production. During the 21st century, steel demand may peak in the developed world, China, the Middle East, Latin America, and India. As China completes its industrialization, global primary steel production may peak between 2020 and 2030 and decline thereafter. We developed a capacity model to show how extensive trade of finished steel could prolong the lifetime of the Chinese steelmaking assets. Secondary steel production will more than double by 2050, and it may surpass primary production between 2050 and 2060: the late 21st century can become the steel scrap age.

  16. Radiographic evaluation of mandibular ramus for gender estimation: Retrospective study

    OpenAIRE

    Damera, Ajit; Mohanalakhsmi, Jonnala; Yellarthi, Pavan Kumar; Rezwana, Begum Mohammed

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims: Gender estimation is a very important part of a study in the field of anthropology and forensic sciences. In the skeleton, gender estimation is the first step of the identification process as subsequent methods for age and stature estimation are sex-dependent. Skeletal components such as the pelvis and skull are investigated for gender estimation and the mandible is a practical element to analyze sexual dimorphism in fragmented bones. The aim of the present study is to me...

  17. Time estimation deficits in childhood mathematics difficulties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurks, Petra P M; van Loosbroek, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Time perception has not been comprehensively examined in mathematics difficulties (MD). Therefore, verbal time estimation, production, and reproduction were tested in 13 individuals with MD and 16 healthy controls, matched for age, sex, and intellectual skills. Individuals with MD performed comparably to controls in time reproduction, but showed a tendency to be less accurate on tasks of verbal time estimation and time production. More specifically, these individuals overestimated the duration of a time interval in the verbal time estimation task and showed underproduction when required to produce a time sample. All previous significant comparisons remained significant after controlling for the effects of interval duration, working memory, attention allocation, and quantity estimation. These findings lead us to suggest that time estimation, and more specifically the "internal clock," is abnormally fast in individuals with MD. Results are discussed in terms of Meck and Church's model of temporal processing and Dehaene's triple code model for number processing.

  18. Hardware Accelerated Power Estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Coburn, Joel; Raghunathan, Anand

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present power emulation, a novel design paradigm that utilizes hardware acceleration for the purpose of fast power estimation. Power emulation is based on the observation that the functions necessary for power estimation (power model evaluation, aggregation, etc.) can be implemented as hardware circuits. Therefore, we can enhance any given design with "power estimation hardware", map it to a prototyping platform, and exercise it with any given test stimuli to obtain power consumption estimates. Our empirical studies with industrial designs reveal that power emulation can achieve significant speedups (10X to 500X) over state-of-the-art commercial register-transfer level (RTL) power estimation tools.

  19. A neural flow estimator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Ivan Harald Holger; Bogason, Gudmundur; Bruun, Erik

    1995-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way to estimate the flow in a micromechanical flow channel. A neural network is used to estimate the delay of random temperature fluctuations induced in a fluid. The design and implementation of a hardware efficient neural flow estimator is described. The system...... is implemented using switched-current technique and is capable of estimating flow in the μl/s range. The neural estimator is built around a multiplierless neural network, containing 96 synaptic weights which are updated using the LMS1-algorithm. An experimental chip has been designed that operates at 5 V...

  20. Assessing age in the desert tortoise Gopherus agassizii: Testing skeletochronology with individuals of known age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtin, A.J.; Zug, G.R.; Medica, P.A.; Spotila, J.R.

    2008-01-01

    Eight desert tortoises Gopherus agassizii from a long-term mark-recapture study in the Mojave Desert, Nevada, USA, afforded an opportunity to examine the accuracy of skeletochronological age estimation on tortoises from a seasonal, yet environmentally erratic environment. These 8 tortoises were marked as hatchlings or within the first 2 yr of life, and their carcasses were salvaged from predator kills. Using d blind protocol, 2 skeletochronological protocols (correction-factor and ranking) provided age estimates for a set of 4 bony elements (humerus, scapula, femur, ilium) from these tortoises of known age. The age at death of the tortoises ranged from 15 to 50 yr. The most accurate protocol - ranking using the growth layers within each of the 4 elements - provided estimates from 21 to 47 yr, with the highest accuracy from the ilia. The results indicate that skeletochronological age estimation provides a reasonably accurate method for assessing the age at death of desert tortoises and, if used with a large sample of individuals, will provide a valuable tool for examining age-related mortality parameters in desert tortoise and likely in other gopher tortoises (Gopherus). ?? Inter-Research 2008.