WorldWideScience

Sample records for age estimation

  1. Age estimation in the living

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels

    2015-01-01

    A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores...... are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA...... in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation...

  2. Molecular pathology and age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meissner, Christoph; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

    2010-12-15

    Over the course of our lifetime a stochastic process leads to gradual alterations of biomolecules on the molecular level, a process that is called ageing. Important changes are observed on the DNA-level as well as on the protein level and are the cause and/or consequence of our 'molecular clock', influenced by genetic as well as environmental parameters. These alterations on the molecular level may aid in forensic medicine to estimate the age of a living person, a dead body or even skeletal remains for identification purposes. Four such important alterations have become the focus of molecular age estimation in the forensic community over the last two decades. The age-dependent accumulation of the 4977bp deletion of mitochondrial DNA and the attrition of telomeres along with ageing are two important processes at the DNA-level. Among a variety of protein alterations, the racemisation of aspartic acid and advanced glycation endproducs have already been tested for forensic applications. At the moment the racemisation of aspartic acid represents the pinnacle of molecular age estimation for three reasons: an excellent standardization of sampling and methods, an evaluation of different variables in many published studies and highest accuracy of results. The three other mentioned alterations often lack standardized procedures, published data are sparse and often have the character of pilot studies. Nevertheless it is important to evaluate molecular methods for their suitability in forensic age estimation, because supplementary methods will help to extend and refine accuracy and reliability of such estimates. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Age Estimation in Forensic Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A.; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L.

    2010-01-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955–1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 (14C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2 = 0.66, p Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 ± 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification. PMID:19965905

  4. Bayesian estimation of isotopic age differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curl, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    Isotopic dating is subject to uncertainties arising from counting statistics and experimental errors. These uncertainties are additive when an isotopic age difference is calculated. If large, they can lead to no significant age difference by classical statistics. In many cases, relative ages are known because of stratigraphic order or other clues. Such information can be used to establish a Bayes estimate of age difference which will include prior knowledge of age order. Age measurement errors are assumed to be log-normal and a noninformative but constrained bivariate prior for two true ages in known order is adopted. True-age ratio is distributed as a truncated log-normal variate. Its expected value gives an age-ratio estimate, and its variance provides credible intervals. Bayesian estimates of ages are different and in correct order even if measured ages are identical or reversed in order. For example, age measurements on two samples might both yield 100 ka with coefficients of variation of 0.2. Bayesian estimates are 22.7 ka for age difference with a 75% credible interval of [4.4, 43.7] ka

  5. Estimating Gestational Age From Ultrasound Fetal Biometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skupski, Daniel W; Owen, John; Kim, Sungduk; Fuchs, Karin M; Albert, Paul S; Grantz, Katherine L

    2017-08-01

    To compare the accuracy of a new formula with one developed in 1984 (and still in common use) and to develop and compare racial and ethnic-specific and racial and ethnic-neutral formulas. The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Fetal Growth Studies-Singletons was a prospective cohort study that recruited women in four self-reported racial-ethnic groups-non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, and Asian-with singleton gestations from 12 U.S. centers (2009-2013). Women with a certain last menstrual period confirmed by first-trimester ultrasonogram had longitudinal fetal measurements by credentialed study ultrasonographers blinded to the gestational age at their five follow-up visits. Regression analyses were performed with linear mixed models to develop gestational age estimating formulas. Repeated cross-validation was used for validation. The estimation error was defined as the mean squared difference between the estimated and observed gestational age and was used to compare the formulas' accuracy. The new formula estimated the gestational age (±2 SD) within ±7 days from 14 to 20 weeks of gestation, ±10 days from 21 to 27 weeks of gestation, and ±17 days from 28 to 40 weeks of gestation. The new formula performed significantly better than a formula developed in 1984 with an estimation error of 10.4 compared with 11.2 days from 21 to 27 weeks of gestation and 17.0 compared with 19.8 days at 28-40 weeks of gestation, respectively. Racial and ethnic-specific formulas did not outperform the racial and ethnic-neutral formula. The NICHD gestational age estimation formula is associated with smaller errors than a well-established historical formula. Racial and ethnic-specific formulas are not superior to a racial-ethnic-neutral one.

  6. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-07-19

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using

  7. Revised age estimates of the Euphrosyne family

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carruba, Valerio; Masiero, Joseph R.; Cibulková, Helena; Aljbaae, Safwan; Espinoza Huaman, Mariela

    2015-08-01

    The Euphrosyne family, a high inclination asteroid family in the outer main belt, is considered one of the most peculiar groups of asteroids. It is characterized by the steepest size frequency distribution (SFD) among families in the main belt, and it is the only family crossed near its center by the ν6 secular resonance. Previous studies have shown that the steep size frequency distribution may be the result of the dynamical evolution of the family.In this work we further explore the unique dynamical configuration of the Euphrosyne family by refining the previous age values, considering the effects of changes in shapes of the asteroids during YORP cycle (``stochastic YORP''), the long-term effect of close encounters of family members with (31) Euphrosyne itself, and the effect that changing key parameters of the Yarkovsky force (such as density and thermal conductivity) has on the estimate of the family age obtained using Monte Carlo methods. Numerical simulations accounting for the interaction with the local web of secular and mean-motion resonances allow us to refine previous estimates of the family age. The cratering event that formed the Euphrosyne family most likely occurred between 560 and 1160 Myr ago, and no earlier than 1400 Myr ago when we allow for larger uncertainties in the key parameters of the Yarkovsky force.

  8. Estimating population age structure using otolith morphometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doering-Arjes, P.; Cardinale, M.; Mosegaard, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    known-age fish individuals. Here we used known-age Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from the Faroe Bank and Faroe Plateau stocks. Cod populations usually show quite large variation in growth rates and otolith shape. We showed that including otolith morphometrics into ageing processes has the potential...... populations. The intercalibration method was successful but generalization from one stock to another remains problematic. The development of an otolith growth model is needed for generalization if an operational method for different populations is required in the future....... to make ageing objective, accurate, and fast. Calibration analysis indicated that a known-age sample from the same population and environment is needed to obtain robust calibration; using a sample from a different stock more than doubles the error rate, even in the case of genetically highly related...

  9. Evaluation and reliability of bone histological age estimation methods

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Human age estimation at death plays a vital role in forensic anthropology and bioarchaeology. Researchers used morphological and histological methods to estimate human age from their skeletal remains. This paper discussed different histological methods that used human long bones and ribs to determine age ...

  10. Clinical significance of bone age estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinrich, U.E.

    1986-01-01

    Skeletal development is an important maturity indicator during childhood. In clinical practice determination of skeletal age is helpful for the diagnosis of disorders of growth and development. Most hormones have specific effects on skeletal maturation. Thus, different disease states (growth disorders, disorders of pubertal development, chornic disorders of the bowels, kidneys, heart etc.) are characterized by retardation or acceleration of skeletal maturation. Therapeutic effects as well as side effects of hormones can be monitored by skeletal age determination. Typical disharmonic patterns in the appearance of bone centres of hand and wrist have been found in certain disorders of development. (orig.) [de

  11. Combining wrist age and third molars in forensic age estimation: how to calculate the joint age estimate and its error rate in age diagnostics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelbrich, Bianca; Frerking, Carolin; Weiss, Sandra; Schwerdt, Sebastian; Stellzig-Eisenhauer, Angelika; Tausche, Eve; Gelbrich, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Forensic age estimation in living adolescents is based on several methods, e.g. the assessment of skeletal and dental maturation. Combination of several methods is mandatory, since age estimates from a single method are too imprecise due to biological variability. The correlation of the errors of the methods being combined must be known to calculate the precision of combined age estimates. To examine the correlation of the errors of the hand and the third molar method and to demonstrate how to calculate the combined age estimate. Clinical routine radiographs of the hand and dental panoramic images of 383 patients (aged 7.8-19.1 years, 56% female) were assessed. Lack of correlation (r = -0.024, 95% CI = -0.124 to + 0.076, p = 0.64) allows calculating the combined age estimate as the weighted average of the estimates from hand bones and third molars. Combination improved the standard deviations of errors (hand = 0.97, teeth = 1.35 years) to 0.79 years. Uncorrelated errors of the age estimates obtained from both methods allow straightforward determination of the common estimate and its variance. This is also possible when reference data for the hand and the third molar method are established independently from each other, using different samples.

  12. Western Saudi adolescent age estimation utilising third molar development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshihri, Amin M; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to establish reference data on third molar morphology/development for age estimation in Western Saudi adolescents, between ages 14 and 23 years of old. The orthopantomograms of 130 individuals (males and females), were examined, and the stage of third molar development were evaluated. Mean ages, standard deviations, and percentile distributions are presented for each stage of development. The mean estimated age for all participants (n = 130) was 219.7 months, and this differed significantly (P age (226.5 months). Deviations of predicted age from real age showed 28.5% of all participants had their age estimated within 1 year (±12 months) of their chronological age. Most (43%) had their age underestimated by more than 12 months and the remaining 28.5% had their age overestimated by more than 12 months of their chronological age. Differences in left-right symmetry information of third molars were detected and were higher in the maxilla (92%) than in the mandible (82%). For all molars reaching stage "H" most individuals (males and females) were over the age 18 years of old. Males reach the developmental stages earlier than females. Third molar tooth development can be reliably used to generate mean age and the estimated age range for an individual of unknown chronological age. Further studies with large populations are needed for better statistical results.

  13. A method to estimate stellar ages from kinematical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida-Fernandes, F.; Rocha-Pinto, H. J.

    2018-05-01

    We present a method to build a probability density function (PDF) for the age of a star based on its peculiar velocities U, V, and W and its orbital eccentricity. The sample used in this work comes from the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey (GCS) that contains the spatial velocities, orbital eccentricities, and isochronal ages for about 14 000 stars. Using the GCS stars, we fitted the parameters that describe the relations between the distributions of kinematical properties and age. This parametrization allows us to obtain an age probability from the kinematical data. From this age PDF, we estimate an individual average age for the star using the most likely age and the expected age. We have obtained the stellar age PDF for the age of 9102 stars from the GCS and have shown that the distribution of individual ages derived from our method is in good agreement with the distribution of isochronal ages. We also observe a decline in the mean metallicity with our ages for stars younger than 7 Gyr, similar to the one observed for isochronal ages. This method can be useful for the estimation of rough stellar ages for those stars that fall in areas of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram where isochrones are tightly crowded. As an example of this method, we estimate the age of Trappist-1, which is a M8V star, obtaining the age of t(UVW) = 12.50(+0.29 - 6.23) Gyr.

  14. Combining Facial Dynamics With Appearance for Age Estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dibeklioğlu, H.; Alnajar, F.; Salah, A.A.; Gevers, T.

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the age of a human from the captured images of his/her face is a challenging problem. In general, the existing approaches to this problem use appearance features only. In this paper, we show that in addition to appearance information, facial dynamics can be leveraged in age estimation. We

  15. Age estimation by amino acid racemization in human teeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu

    2010-11-01

    When an unidentified body is found, it is essential to establish the personal identity of the body in addition to investigating the cause of death. Identification is one of the most important functions of forensic dentistry. Fingerprint, dental, and DNA analysis can be used to accurately identify a body. However, if no information is available for identification, age estimation can contribute to the resolution of a case. The authors have been using aspartic acid racemization rates in dentin (D-aspartic acid/L-aspartic acid: D/L Asp) as an index for age estimation and have obtained satisfactory results. We report five cases of age estimation using the racemization method. In all five cases, estimated ages were accurate within a range ±3 years. We conclude that the racemization method is a reliable and practical method for estimating age. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  16. Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in human sclera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klumb, Karolin; Matzenauer, Christian; Reckert, Alexandra; Lehmann, Klaus; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation based on racemization of aspartic acid residues (AAR) in permanent proteins has been established in forensic medicine for years. While dentine is the tissue of choice for this molecular method of age estimation, teeth are not always available which leads to the need to identify other suitable tissues. We examined the suitability of total tissue samples of human sclera for the estimation of age at death. Sixty-five samples of scleral tissue were analyzed. The samples were hydrolyzed and after derivatization, the extent of aspartic acid racemization was determined by gas chromatography. The degree of AAR increased with age. In samples from younger individuals, the correlation of age and D-aspartic acid content was closer than in samples from older individuals. The age-dependent racemization in total tissue samples proves that permanent or at least long-living proteins are present in scleral tissue. The correlation of AAR in human sclera and age at death is close enough to serve as basis for age estimation. However, the precision of age estimation by this method is lower than that of age estimation based on the analysis of dentine which is due to molecular inhomogeneities of total tissue samples of sclera. Nevertheless, the approach may serve as a valuable alternative or addition in exceptional cases.

  17. The Estimation of Gestational Age at Birth in Database Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberg, Maria; Platt, Robert W; Filion, Kristian B

    2017-11-01

    Studies on the safety of prenatal medication use require valid estimation of the pregnancy duration. However, gestational age is often incompletely recorded in administrative and clinical databases. Our objective was to compare different approaches to estimating the pregnancy duration. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics, we examined the following four approaches to estimating missing gestational age: (1) generalized estimating equations for longitudinal data; (2) multiple imputation; (3) estimation based on fetal birth weight and sex; and (4) conventional approaches that assigned a fixed value (39 weeks for all or 39 weeks for full term and 35 weeks for preterm). The gestational age recorded in Hospital Episode Statistics was considered the gold standard. We conducted a simulation study comparing the described approaches in terms of estimated bias and mean square error. A total of 25,929 infants from 22,774 mothers were included in our "gold standard" cohort. The smallest average absolute bias was observed for the generalized estimating equation that included birth weight, while the largest absolute bias occurred when assigning 39-week gestation to all those with missing values. The smallest mean square errors were detected with generalized estimating equations while multiple imputation had the highest mean square errors. The use of generalized estimating equations resulted in the most accurate estimation of missing gestational age when birth weight information was available. In the absence of birth weight, assignment of fixed gestational age based on term/preterm status may be the optimal approach.

  18. Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.

    2010-01-01

    We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in

  19. Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eran Bendavid

    Full Text Available Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data.Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5q(x. We then compare our (5q(x estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old.We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased. WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%. However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9% and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%. Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60.Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with

  20. A holistic approach to age estimation in refugee children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sypek, Scott A; Benson, Jill; Spanner, Kate A; Williams, Jan L

    2016-06-01

    Many refugee children arriving in Australia have an inaccurately documented date of birth (DOB). A medical assessment of a child's age is often requested when there is a concern that their documented DOB is incorrect. This study's aim was to assess the accuracy a holistic age assessment tool (AAT) in estimating the age of refugee children newly settled in Australia. A holistic AAT that combines medical and non-medical approaches was used to estimate the ages of 60 refugee children with a known DOB. The tool used four components to assess age: an oral narrative, developmental assessment, anthropometric measures and pubertal assessment. Assessors were blinded to the true age of the child. Correlation coefficients for the actual and estimated age were calculated for the tool overall and individual components. The correlation coefficient between the actual and estimated age from the AAT was very strong at 0.9802 (boys 0.9748, girls 0.9876). The oral narrative component of the tool performed best (R = 0.9603). Overall, 86.7% of age estimates were within 1 year of the true age. The range of differences was -1.43 to 3.92 years with a standard deviation of 0.77 years (9.24 months). The AAT is a holistic, simple and safe instrument that can be used to estimate age in refugee children with results comparable with radiological methods currently used. © 2016 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  1. Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tokola, Ryan A [ORNL; Bolme, David S [ORNL; Ricanek, Karl [ORNL; Barstow, Del R [ORNL; Boehnen, Chris Bensing [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-class SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.

  2. Facial Asymmetry-Based Age Group Estimation: Role in Recognizing Age-Separated Face Images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajid, Muhammad; Taj, Imtiaz Ahmad; Bajwa, Usama Ijaz; Ratyal, Naeem Iqbal

    2018-04-23

    Face recognition aims to establish the identity of a person based on facial characteristics. On the other hand, age group estimation is the automatic calculation of an individual's age range based on facial features. Recognizing age-separated face images is still a challenging research problem due to complex aging processes involving different types of facial tissues, skin, fat, muscles, and bones. Certain holistic and local facial features are used to recognize age-separated face images. However, most of the existing methods recognize face images without incorporating the knowledge learned from age group estimation. In this paper, we propose an age-assisted face recognition approach to handle aging variations. Inspired by the observation that facial asymmetry is an age-dependent intrinsic facial feature, we first use asymmetric facial dimensions to estimate the age group of a given face image. Deeply learned asymmetric facial features are then extracted for face recognition using a deep convolutional neural network (dCNN). Finally, we integrate the knowledge learned from the age group estimation into the face recognition algorithm using the same dCNN. This integration results in a significant improvement in the overall performance compared to using the face recognition algorithm alone. The experimental results on two large facial aging datasets, the MORPH and FERET sets, show that the proposed age group estimation based on the face recognition approach yields superior performance compared to some existing state-of-the-art methods. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  3. Age estimation using exfoliative cytology and radiovisiography: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nallamala, Shilpa; Guttikonda, Venkateswara Rao; Manchikatla, Praveen Kumar; Taneeru, Sravya

    2017-01-01

    Age estimation is one of the essential factors in establishing the identity of an individual. Among various methods, exfoliative cytology (EC) is a unique, noninvasive technique, involving simple, and pain-free collection of intact cells from the oral cavity for microscopic examination. The study was undertaken with an aim to estimate the age of an individual from the average cell size of their buccal smears calculated using image analysis morphometric software and the pulp-tooth area ratio in mandibular canine of the same individual using radiovisiography (RVG). Buccal smears were collected from 100 apparently healthy individuals. After fixation in 95% alcohol, the smears were stained using Papanicolaou stain. The average cell size was measured using image analysis software (Image-Pro Insight 8.0). The RVG images of mandibular canines were obtained, pulp and tooth areas were traced using AutoCAD 2010 software, and area ratio was calculated. The estimated age was then calculated using regression analysis. The paired t -test between chronological age and estimated age by cell size and pulp-tooth area ratio was statistically nonsignificant ( P > 0.05). In the present study, age estimated by pulp-tooth area ratio and EC yielded good results.

  4. Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

    2010-11-01

    Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions.

  5. Coronal pulp biomarker: A lesser known age estimation modality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smrithi D Veera

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The evolving state of art digital technology currently available is opening new avenues in forensic odontology for age estimation methods which are subject to debate in terms of accuracy and precision. A study was carried to analyze efficacy and practical application for age estimation using digital panoramic radiographs on South Indian population. Aims and Objectives: 1. To study reduction of coronal pulp chamber using Tooth Coronal Index (TCI on panoramic radiographs and correlate with chronologic age. 2. To establish accuracy of digital panoramic radiographs as a simple, non-invasive tool. Materials and Methods: The study illustrates the potential value of a little known aging method. The study groups comprised a total of 100 subjects of both sexes in age range of 20 and 60 years each who were subjected to panoramic radiography. A panoramic radiographic examination using digital panoramic machine was conducted on selected individuals. The TCI was calibrated using AGFA computer software for accuracy and precision. The values obtained were subjected to regression analysis, results calculated and correlated with chronologic age. In the present study a population of known age was studied and subjected to digital panoramic radiographic examination. The correlation between reduction of coronal pulp cavity and chronological age was examined. TCI was computed for each tooth and regressed on real age. Statistical Analysis Used: Pearson correlation co-efficient was used to find the significance of relationship between age and TCI. Regression analysis has been used for predicting age using TCI for premolar and molar. Inaccuracy and bias have been determined to assess the precision of prediction equations. Results and Conclusion: Prediction potential of TCI comes down for ages above 50 years and is comfortably good below 50 years without much difference between premolars and molars. This study demonstrates the potential value of TCI for age

  6. Using Supervised Deep Learning for Human Age Estimation Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobnyh, K. A.; Polovinkin, A. N.

    2017-05-01

    Automatic facial age estimation is a challenging task upcoming in recent years. In this paper, we propose using the supervised deep learning features to improve an accuracy of the existing age estimation algorithms. There are many approaches solving the problem, an active appearance model and the bio-inspired features are two of them which showed the best accuracy. For experiments we chose popular publicly available FG-NET database, which contains 1002 images with a broad variety of light, pose, and expression. LOPO (leave-one-person-out) method was used to estimate the accuracy. Experiments demonstrated that adding supervised deep learning features has improved accuracy for some basic models. For example, adding the features to an active appearance model gave the 4% gain (the error decreased from 4.59 to 4.41).

  7. Secondary Forest Age and Tropical Forest Biomass Estimation Using TM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, R. F.; Kimes, D. S.; Salas, W. A.; Routhier, M.

    1999-01-01

    The age of secondary forests in the Amazon will become more critical with respect to the estimation of biomass and carbon budgets as tropical forest conversion continues. Multitemporal Thematic Mapper data were used to develop land cover histories for a 33,000 Square kM area near Ariquemes, Rondonia over a 7 year period from 1989-1995. The age of the secondary forest, a surrogate for the amount of biomass (or carbon) stored above-ground, was found to be unimportant in terms of biomass budget error rates in a forested TM scene which had undergone a 20% conversion to nonforest/agricultural cover types. In such a situation, the 80% of the scene still covered by primary forest accounted for over 98% of the scene biomass. The difference between secondary forest biomass estimates developed with and without age information were inconsequential relative to the estimate of biomass for the entire scene. However, in futuristic scenarios where all of the primary forest has been converted to agriculture and secondary forest (55% and 42% respectively), the ability to age secondary forest becomes critical. Depending on biomass accumulation rate assumptions, scene biomass budget errors on the order of -10% to +30% are likely if the age of the secondary forests are not taken into account. Single-date TM imagery cannot be used to accurately age secondary forests into single-year classes. A neural network utilizing TM band 2 and three TM spectral-texture measures (bands 3 and 5) predicted secondary forest age over a range of 0-7 years with an RMSE of 1.59 years and an R(Squared) (sub actual vs predicted) = 0.37. A proposal is made, based on a literature review, to use satellite imagery to identify general secondary forest age groups which, within group, exhibit relatively constant biomass accumulation rates.

  8. Dental age estimation: the role of probability estimates at the 10 year threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Victoria S; McDonald, Fraser; Neil, Monica; Roberts, Graham

    2014-08-01

    The use of probability at the 18 year threshold has simplified the reporting of dental age estimates for emerging adults. The availability of simple to use widely available software has enabled the development of the probability threshold for individual teeth in growing children. Tooth development stage data from a previous study at the 10 year threshold were reused to estimate the probability of developing teeth being above or below the 10 year thresh-hold using the NORMDIST Function in Microsoft Excel. The probabilities within an individual subject are averaged to give a single probability that a subject is above or below 10 years old. To test the validity of this approach dental panoramic radiographs of 50 female and 50 male children within 2 years of the chronological age were assessed with the chronological age masked. Once the whole validation set of 100 radiographs had been assessed the masking was removed and the chronological age and dental age compared. The dental age was compared with chronological age to determine whether the dental age correctly or incorrectly identified a validation subject as above or below the 10 year threshold. The probability estimates correctly identified children as above or below on 94% of occasions. Only 2% of the validation group with a chronological age of less than 10 years were assigned to the over 10 year group. This study indicates the very high accuracy of assignment at the 10 year threshold. Further work at other legally important age thresholds is needed to explore the value of this approach to the technique of age estimation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Dental age estimation using Willems method: A digital orthopantomographic study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rezwana Begum Mohammed

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, age estimation has become increasingly important in living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as a birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army, and retirement. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of left seven mandibular teeth for estimation of dental age (DA in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA in South Indian population using Willems method. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomogram of 332 subjects (166 males, 166 females who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular teeth (from central incisor to the second molar on left quadrant development was undertaken and DA was assessed using Willems method. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males (r = 0.71 and females (r = 0.88. The overall mean difference between the estimated DA and CA for males was 0.69 ± 2.14 years (P 0.05. Willems method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.69 years and females by 0.08 years and showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. The mean difference between DA and CA according to Willems method was 0.39 years and is statistically significant (P < 0.05. Conclusion: This study showed significant relation between DA and CA. Thus, digital radiographic assessment of mandibular teeth development can be used to generate mean DA using Willems method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA.

  10. Estimation of Aging Effects on LOHS for CANDU-6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Yong Ki; Moon, Bok Ja; Kim, Seoung Rae [Nuclear Engineering Service and Solution Co. Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    To evaluate the Wolsong Unit 1's capacity to respond to large-scale natural disaster exceeding design, the loss of heat sink(LOHS) accident accompanied by loss of all electric power is simulated as a beyond design basis accident. This analysis is considered the aging effects of plant as the consequences of LOHS accident. Various components of primary heat transport system(PHTS) get aged and some of the important aging effects of CANDU reactor are pressure tube(PT) diametral creep, steam generator(SG) U-tube fouling, increased feeder roughness, and feeder orifice degradation. These effects result in higher inlet header temperatures, reduced flows in some fuel channels, and higher void fraction in fuel channel outlets. Fresh and aged models are established for the analysis where fresh model is the circuit model simulating the conditions at retubing and aged model corresponds to the model reflecting the aged condition at 11 EFPY after retubing. CATHENA computer code[1] is used for the analysis of the system behavior under LOHS condition. The LOHS accident is analyzed for fresh and aged models using CATHENA thermal hydraulic computer code. The decay heat removal is one of the most important factors for mitigation of this accident. The major aging effect on decay heat removal is the reduction of heat transfer efficiency by steam generator. Thus, the channel failure time cannot be conservatively estimated if aged model is applied for the analysis of this accident.

  11. Demirjian approach of dental age estimation: Abridged for operator ease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Vanshika; Kapoor, Priyanka; Miglani, Ragini

    2016-01-01

    Present times have seen an alarming increase in incidence of crimes by juveniles and of mass destruction that Highlight the preponderance of individual age estimation. Of the numerous techniques employed for age assessment, dental age estimation (DAE) and its correlation with chronological age (CA) have been of great significance in the recent past. Demirjian system, considered as gold standard in DAE is a simple and convenient method for DAE, though,, although, referring to multiple tables make it cumbersome and less eco friendly due to excessive paper load. The present study was aimed to develop a comprehensive chart (DAEcc) inclusive of all Demirjian tables and developmental stages of teeth and also to as well as to test the operator ease of 50 undergraduate dental students in performing DAE using this chart. The study was performed in two stages, wherein the first stage was aimed at formulation of the comprehensive chart (DAE CC ) which included pictorial representation of calcification stages, the Federation Dentaire Internationale notation of the teeth, and the corresponding scores for each stage with a concluding column at the end to enter the total score. The second stage assessed the applicability of the ease of DAE by DAE CC , whereby fifty 2 nd year BDS students were asked to trace the calcification stages of the seven permanent left mandibular teeth on a panorex, identify the correct stage, assign the corresponding score, and to calculate the total score for subsequent dental age assessment. showed that average time taken by the students for tracing seven mandibular teeth was 5 min and for assessment of dental age was 7 min. The total time taken for DAE was approximately 12 min, thus making the procedure less time consuming. Hence, this study proposes the use of DAEcc for age estimation due to ease in comprehension and execution of Demirjian system.

  12. Relative estimation of the mineral ages using uranium migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danis, A.

    1990-01-01

    Using the uranium fission track micro mapping technique the correlation between the age and uranium migration from inclusions was studied. It is shown that during geological time, as function of the mineral, its age and its uranium migration speed, the pattern of the track, clusters corresponding to the uranium inclusions got a typical feature. Thus for a bulk polished geological sample it is possible to establish an age succession of the constituent minerals as a function of the track cluster patterns. Also, it is shown that knowing the migration speed of the uranium in a mineral it is possible to estimate the age of this mineral by measuring the migration distance on the micro mapping. (Author)

  13. Estimating Twin Pair Concordance for Age of Onset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H; Hjelmborg, Jacob B; Holst, Klaus K

    2015-01-01

    that they will develop the disease. The aim of this contribution is to show that the standard casewise concordance and standard prevalence estimators do not work in general for age-of-onset data. We show how one can in fact do something easy and simple even with censored data. The key is to take age into account when......Twin and family data provide a key source for evaluating inheritance of specific diseases. A standard analysis of such data typically involves the computation of prevalences and different concordance measures such as the casewise concordance, that is the probability that one twin has the disease...

  14. Northern Chinese dental ages estimated from southern Chinese reference datasets closely correlate with chronological age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai Ming Wong

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available While northern and southern Chinese are genetically correlated, there exists notable environmental differences in their living conditions. This study aimed to evaluate validity of the southern Chinese reference dataset for dental age estimation applied to northern Chinese. Dental panoramic tomographs of 437 northern Chinese aged 3 to 21 years were analysed. All the left maxillary and mandibular permanent teeth plus the 2 third molars on the right side were scored based on Demirjian’s classification of tooth development stages. Mean and standard error of dental age were obtained for each tooth development stage, followed by random effect meta-analysis for mean dental age estimation. Validity of the method was examined through measures of agreement (95% limits of agreement, standard error of measurement, and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient and measure of reliability (Intraclass correlation coefficient. On average, the estimated dental age overestimated chronological age by only around 1 month in both females and males. The Intraclass correlation coefficient values were 0.99 for both sexes, suggesting excellent reliability of the method. Reference dataset for dental age estimation developed on the basis of southern Chinese was applicable for use among the northern Chinese.

  15. Lifetime estimation of zirconia ceramics by linear ageing kinetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Fei; Inokoshi, Masanao; Vanmeensel, Kim; Van Meerbeek, Bart; Naert, Ignace; Vleugels, Jef

    2015-01-01

    Up to now, the ageing kinetics of zirconia ceramics were mainly derived from the sigmoidal evolution of the surface phase transformation as a function of time, as quantified by means of X-ray diffraction (XRD). However, the transformation propagation into the material should be better to monitor the ageing kinetics. In this work, μ-Raman spectroscopy was used to quantitatively measure the transformation profiles in depth as a function of ageing time at 160 °C, 140 °C, 134 °C and 110 °C. A linear relationship between the transformed depth and the ageing time was observed for all investigated yttria stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystals (3Y-TZP). Furthermore, the μ-Raman investigation of residual stresses in the subsurface of aged 3Y-TZPs showed that the highest tensile stress was located just ahead of the transformation front, indicating the key responsibility of stress accumulation for transformation front propagating into the material. Moreover, the linear kinetics of the transformation propagation were more accurate to calculate the apparent activation energy of the ageing process and allowed a more straightforward estimation of the lifetime of 3Y-TZP at body temperature, as compared to the conventional ageing kinetic parameters obtained from the surface transformation analysis by XRD

  16. Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2013-09-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  17. Similarity estimators for irregular and age-uncertain time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2014-01-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many data sets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age-uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel-based cross-correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case, coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  18. Estimation of component redundancy in optimal age maintenance

    OpenAIRE

    Siopa, Jorge; Garção, José; Silva, Júlio

    2012-01-01

    The classical Optimal Age-Replacement defines the maintenance strategy based on the equipment failure consequences. For severe consequences an early equipment replacement is recommended. For minor consequences the repair after failure is proposed. One way of reducing the failure consequences is the use of redundancies, especially if the equipment failure rate is decreasing over time, since in this case the preventive replacement does not reduce the risk of failure. The estimation of an ac...

  19. Human age estimation framework using different facial parts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Y. El Dib

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Human age estimation from facial images has a wide range of real-world applications in human computer interaction (HCI. In this paper, we use the bio-inspired features (BIF to analyze different facial parts: (a eye wrinkles, (b whole internal face (without forehead area and (c whole face (with forehead area using different feature shape points. The analysis shows that eye wrinkles which cover 30% of the facial area contain the most important aging features compared to internal face and whole face. Furthermore, more extensive experiments are made on FG-NET database by increasing the number of missing pictures in older age groups using MORPH database to enhance the results.

  20. The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

  1. Estimation of Correlation between Chronological Age, Skeletal Age and Dental Age in Children- A Cross-sectional Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macha, Madhulika; Lamba, Bharti; Avula, Jogendra Sai Sankar; Muthineni, Sridhar; Margana, Pratap Gowd Jai Shankar; Chitoori, Prasad

    2017-09-01

    In the modern era, identification and determination of age is imperative for diversity of reasons that include disputed birth records, premature delivery, legal issues and for validation of birth certificate for school admissions, adoption, marriage, job and immigration. Several growth assessment parameters like bone age, dental age and the combination of both have been applied for different population with variable outcomes. It has been well documented that the chronological age does not necessarily correlate with the maturational status of a child. Hence, efforts were made to determine a child's developmental age by using dental age (calcification of teeth) and skeletal age (skeletal maturation). The present study was aimed to correlate the chronological age, dental age and skeletal age in children from Southeastern region of Andhra Pradesh, India. Out of the total 900 screened children, only 100 subjects between age groups of 6-14 years with a mean age of 11.3±2.63 for males and 10.77±2.24 for females were selected for the study. Dental age was calculated by Demirjian method and skeletal age by modified Middle Phalanx of left hand third finger (MP3) method. Pearson's and Spearman's correlation tests were done to estimate the correlation between chronological, dental and skeletal ages among study population. There was a significant positive correlation between chronological age, dental age and all stages of MP3 among males. Similar results were observed in females, except for a non-significant moderate correlation between chronological age and dental age in the H stage of the MP3 region. The results of the present study revealed correlation with statistical significance (p<0.05) between chronological, dental and skeletal ages among all the subjects (48 males and 52 females) and females attained maturity earlier than males in the present study population.

  2. Age estimates and stick-nest rat middens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearson, S.; Lawson, E.

    1998-01-01

    A total of 112 radiocarbon analyses on stick-nest rat middens gathered from published and grey literature show (see figure) that the middens of stick-nest rats have a positively skewed distribution. The average of all the estimates is ca. 2967 BP with the oldest midden dated at around 10870 BP. Over 75% of the results are younger than -4480 BP. Possible explanations for this pattern include; sample bias, rate of midden and cave decay, a real pattern of midden age distribution and development of techniques. The components of the midden being used for radiocarbon analysis has been remarkably uniform. This reflects the small number of researchers in the field and the experience of the American packrat midden research. Early researchers using conventional methods used charcoal and large mixtures of material whereas AMS now allows individual scats to be analysed. In fact 37% of analyses have been on scats as these provide direct evidence of midden occupation and are plentiful in the midden matrix. 66% of analyses used AINSE's AMS method and 23% used conventional methods - the distribution of results using the two methods are similar. A number of dates have incomplete laboratory or methods information. Similar analysis of packrat midden dates in the United States identified both ecological and systematic bias in the age patterns (Webb 1986). The efficacy of midden analysis in Australia, as in America, is limited by the cost of age estimates

  3. ESTIMATION OF AGING EFFECTS OF PILES IN MALAYSIAN OFFSHORE LOCATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JERIN M. GEORGE

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available An increasing demand for extending life and subsequently higher loading requirements of offshore jacket platforms are among the key problems faced by the offshore industry. The Aging effect has been proved to increase the axial capacity of piles, but proper methods to estimate and quantify these effects have not been developed. Borehole data from ten different Malaysian offshore locations have been analysed and they were employed to estimate the setup factor for different locations using AAU method. The setup factors found were used in the Skov and Denver equation to calculate capacity ratios of the offshore piles. The study showed that there will be an average improvement in the axial capacity of offshore piles by 42.2% and 34.9% for clayey and mixed soils respectively after a time equal to the normal design life (25 years of a jacket platform.

  4. Microelements in fossil bones and the estimation of age

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besliu, C.; Olariu, A.; Popescu, I.; Badica, Th.

    1993-01-01

    Neutron activation analysis was used to determine microelements fossil bones and the correlation was found between some elements and the C-14 estimated age of the bones. Fluorine, uranium and manganese content in the bones structure increases with the time elapsed, during fossilization. This means that measurable concentrations of these elements and known environmental conditions could provide a relative dating tool of bones beyond the 70 ky radiocarbon limit, for paleolithic archaeology. Sodium, scandium, iron, and zinc have been also determined in fossil bones, but a relation with the increasing antiquity of the fossil has been observed. (Author)

  5. Human age estimation combining third molar and skeletal development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Kaur, J; Willems, G

    2012-03-01

    The wide prediction intervals obtained with age estimation methods based on third molar development could be reduced by combining these dental observations with age-related skeletal information. Therefore, on cephalometric radiographs, the most accurate age-estimating skeletal variable and related registration method were searched and added to a regression model, with age as response and third molar stages as explanatory variable. In a pilot set up on a dataset of 496 (283 M; 213 F) cephalometric radiographs, the techniques of Baccetti et al. (2005) (BA), Seedat et al. (2005) (SE), Caldas et al. (2007) and Rai et al. (2008) (RA) were verified. In the main study, data from 460 (208 F, 224 M) individuals in an age range between 3 and 26 years, for which at the same day an orthopantogram and a cephalogram were taken, were collected. On the orthopantomograms, the left third molar development was registered using the scoring system described by Gleiser and Hunt (1955) and modified by Köhler (1994) (GH). On the cephalograms, cervical vertebrae development was registered according to the BA and SE techniques. A regression model, with age as response and the GH scores as explanatory variable, was fitted to the data. Next, information of BA, SE and BA + SE was, respectively, added to this model. From all obtained models, the determination coefficients and the root mean squared errors were calculated. Inclusion of information from cephalograms based on the BA, as well as the SE, technique improved the amount of explained variance in age acquired from panoramic radiographs using the GH technique with 48%. Inclusion of cephalometric BA + SE information marginally improved the previous result (+1%). The RMSE decreased with 1.93, 1.85 and 2.03 years by adding, respectively, BA, SE and BA + SE information to the GH model. The SE technique allows clinically the fastest and easiest registration of the degree of development of the cervical vertebrae. Therefore, the choice of

  6. Age estimates for the late quaternary high sea-stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smart, Peter L.; Richards, David A.

    A database of more than 300 published alpha-counted uranium-series ages has been compiled for coral reef terraces formed by Late Pleistocene high sea-stands. The database was screened to eliminate unreliable age estimates ( {230Th }/{232Th } 5%) and those without quoted without quoted errors, and a distributed error frequency curve was produced. This curve can be considered as a finite mixture model comprising k component normal distributions each with a weighting α. By using an expectation maximising algorithm, the mean and standard deviation of the component distributions, each corresponding to a high sea level event, were estimated. Eight high sea-stands with mean and standard deviations of 129.0 ± 33.0, 123.0 ± 13.0, 102.5 ± 2.0, 81.5 ± 5.0, 61.5 ± 6.0, 50.0 ± 1.0, 40.5 ± 5.0 and 33.0 ± 2.5 ka were resolved. The standard deviations are generally larger than the values quoted for individual age estimates. Whilst this may be due to diagenetic effects, especially for the older corals, it is argued that in many cases geological evidence clearly indicates that the high stands are multiple events, often not resolvable at sites with low rates of uplift. The uranium-series dated coral-reef terrace chronology shows good agreement with independent chronologies derived for Antarctic ice cores, although the resolution for the latter is better. Agreement with orbitally-tuned deep-sea core records is also good, but it is argued that Isotope Stage 5e is not a single event, as recorded in the cores, but a multiple event spanning some 12 ka. The much earlier age for Isotope Stage 5e given by Winograd et al. (1988) is not supported by the coral reef data, but further mass-spectrometric uranium-series dating is needed to permit better chronological resolution.

  7. Optimal dental age estimation practice in United Arab Emirates' children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altalie, Salem; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2014-03-01

    The aim of the study was to detect whether the Willems model, developed on a Belgian reference sample, can be used for age estimations in United Arab Emirates (UAE) children. Furthermore, it was verified that if added third molars development information in children provided more accurate age predictions. On 1900 panoramic radiographs, the development of left mandibular permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) was registered according the Demirjian and the Kohler technique, respectively. The PT data were used to verify the Willems model and to develop a UAE model and to verify it. Multiple regression models with PT, TM, and PT + TM scores as independent and age as dependent factor were developed. Comparing the verified Willems- and the UAE model revealed differences in mean error of -0.01 year, mean absolute error of 0.01 year and root mean squared error of 0.90 year. Neglectable overall decrease in RMSE was detected combining PM and TM developmental information. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  8. Applications of physiological bases of ageing to forensic sciences. Estimation of age-at-death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    C Zapico, Sara; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2013-03-01

    Age-at-death estimation is one of the main challenges in forensic sciences since it contributes to the identification of individuals. There are many anthropological techniques to estimate the age at death in children and adults. However, in adults this methodology is less accurate and requires population specific references. For that reason, new methodologies have been developed. Biochemical methods are based on the natural process of ageing, which induces different biochemical changes that lead to alterations in cells and tissues. In this review, we describe different attempts to estimate the age in adults based on these changes. Chemical approaches imply modifications in molecules or accumulation of some products. Molecular biology approaches analyze the modifications in DNA and chromosomes. Although the most accurate technique appears to be aspartic acid racemization, it is important to take into account the other techniques because the forensic context and the human remains available will determine the possibility to apply one or another methodology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Human dental age estimation combining third molar(s) development and tooth morphological age predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Galiti, D; Willems, G

    2012-11-01

    In the subadult age group, third molar development, as well as age-related morphological tooth information can be observed on panoramic radiographs. The aim of present study was to combine, in subadults, panoramic radiographic data based on developmental stages of third molar(s) and morphological measurements from permanent teeth, in order to evaluate its added age-predicting performances. In the age range between 15 and 23 years, 25 gender-specific radiographs were collected within each age category of 1 year. Third molar development was classified and registered according the 10-point staging and scoring technique proposed by Gleiser and Hunt (1955), modified by Köhler (1994). The Kvaal (1995) measuring technique was applied on the indicated teeth from the individuals' left side. Linear regression models with age as response and third molar-scored stages as explanatory variables were developed, and morphological measurements from permanent teeth were added. From the models, determination coefficients (R (2)) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were calculated. Maximal-added age information was reported as a 6 % R² increase and a 0.10-year decrease of RMSE. Forensic dental age estimations on panoramic radiographic data in the subadult group (15-23 year) should only be based on third molar development.

  10. Age Spreads and the Temperature Dependence of Age Estimates in Upper Sco

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang Qiliang; Herczeg, Gregory J. [Kavli Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Peking University, Yiheyuan Lu 5, Haidian Qu, 100871 Beijing (China); Rizzuto, Aaron [Department of Astronomy, University of Texas, 2515 Speedway, Stop C1400, Austin, TX 78712 (United States)

    2017-06-20

    Past estimates for the age of the Upper Sco Association are typically 11–13 Myr for intermediate-mass stars and 4–5 Myr for low-mass stars. In this study, we simulate populations of young stars to investigate whether this apparent dependence of estimated age on spectral type may be explained by the star formation history of the association. Solar and intermediate mass stars begin their pre-main sequence evolution on the Hayashi track, with fully convective interiors and cool photospheres. Intermediate-mass stars quickly heat up and transition onto the radiative Henyey track. As a consequence, for clusters in which star formation occurs on a timescale similar to that of the transition from a convective to a radiative interior, discrepancies in ages will arise when ages are calculated as a function of temperature instead of mass. Simple simulations of a cluster with constant star formation over several Myr may explain about half of the difference in inferred ages versus photospheric temperature; speculative constructions that consist of a constant star formation followed by a large supernova-driven burst could fully explain the differences, including those between F and G stars where evolutionary tracks may be more accurate. The age spreads of low-mass stars predicted from these prescriptions for star formation are consistent with the observed luminosity spread of Upper Sco. The conclusion that a lengthy star formation history will yield a temperature dependence in ages is expected from the basic physics of pre-main sequence evolution, and is qualitatively robust to the large uncertainties in pre-main sequence evolutionary models.

  11. Age, Sex and Stature Estimation from Footprint Dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paurbhi Singh

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The present study was carried out to evaluate the utility and reliability of footprint dimensions in age, sex and stature determination in the North Indian population. Materials and Methods: This study was carried out using a sample of 400 people (146 female and 254 male aged 10-65 years in Uttar Pradesh, North Western state of India. Footprints of both feet were taken bilaterally, and thus a total of 800 prints were obtained. A cluster of 7 measurements were taken carefully with the help of a scientific scale ruler. Five measurements were length dimensions from the most anterior part of the toe (T1–T5 to the mid rear heel point and two were breadth dimensions from both left and right footprints: breadth at ball (BBAL, breadth at heel (BHEL and 2 indexes: heel-ball Index (HBI and footprint index (FPI. All data were analyzed statistically using Student’s t-test, regression coefficient and Pearson’s correlation for the estimation of sex on the basis of footprint dimensions. Results: The T1 in left footprints was greater than right footprints in males, while T1 and BBAL were both found to be greater in left footprints than right footprints in females. All the seven foot dimensions were higher in males than females. Conclusion: There were statistically significant differences observed in all footprint dimensions between the male and female footprints except LFPI, LHBI, and RHBI.

  12. A method to estimate the ageing of a cooling tower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnel, Nathalie; Courtois, Alexis; Ilie, Petre-Lazar

    2006-09-01

    This paper deals with cooling towers ageing. Our contribution is a method to determine which part of on site measured strain we are able to predict by means of simulations. As a result, we map a gap indicator on the structure. Calculations have been performed in three configurations. Comparing the values obtained in the three cases helps to determine which researches are worth to be done. Indeed, gap indicator reveals that: - THM can not be considered as the main and only ageing mechanism, so long as tower older than 10 years are examined. At least creep has to be taken into account too; - Gap indicator is sensitive to initial hydration conditions. Drying process before bringing into service should be estimated properly, taking into account the different construction steps; - Comparing different thermal conditions reveals that meteorological conditions have a significant influence on results. So, it will be interesting to differentiate the sunny and the shaded part of the tower when the measurements are done; - A large part of the values obtained can be explicated by construction defects. A study on this particular problematic seems to be essential. The four items mentioned must be considered as perspectives to improve the present method of simulations. (authors)

  13. Validity of the Demirjian method for dental age estimation for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-02-04

    Feb 4, 2015 ... Dental age was calculated using the Demirjian's method. Chronologic age was .... in order to avoid the examiner bias at the time of collecting data. ... age using the. Demirjian method for different age groups and total sample.

  14. Estimating the formation age distribution of continental crust by unmixing zircon ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenaga, Jun

    2018-01-01

    Continental crust provides first-order control on Earth's surface environment, enabling the presence of stable dry landmasses surrounded by deep oceans. The evolution of continental crust is important for atmospheric evolution, because continental crust is an essential component of deep carbon cycle and is likely to have played a critical role in the oxygenation of the atmosphere. Geochemical information stored in the mineral zircon, known for its resilience to diagenesis and metamorphism, has been central to ongoing debates on the genesis and evolution of continental crust. However, correction for crustal reworking, which is the most critical step when estimating original formation ages, has been incorrectly formulated, undermining the significance of previous estimates. Here I suggest a simple yet promising approach for reworking correction using the global compilation of zircon data. The present-day distribution of crustal formation age estimated by the new "unmixing" method serves as the lower bound to the true crustal growth, and large deviations from growth models based on mantle depletion imply the important role of crustal recycling through the Earth history.

  15. Statistical Estimation of the Age of the Universe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jørgen Holm

    The Hubble constant enters big bang cosmology by quantifying the expansion rate of the universe. It is shown that the standard technique for estimation of Hubble's constant is statistically inconsistent and results in a systematically too low value. An alternative, consistent estimator of Hubble...

  16. Automatic age and gaze estimation under uncontrolled conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alnajar, F.

    2016-01-01

    Can the computer learn a person’s age just from analyzing facial images obtained by a simple webcam? If so, you can automatically determine if a person has the right age to buy beer (shops), to use a credit card (retail), and can enter bars (entertainment). Can the computer automatically recognize

  17. Estimation of embrittlement during aging of AISI 316 stainless steel ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    rical relation connecting the aging temperature, aging time and nitrogen ... strength, high tensile strength, are easy to fabricate and ... However, the ferrite is a metastable phase which ... 2. Experimental. 2.1 Materials. Nuclear grade AISI 316 stainless steel plates ( .... fore, it is desirable to develop empirical relations con-.

  18. Age estimation by 3D CT-scans of the Borremose Woman, a Danish bog body

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villa, Chiara; Møller Rasmussen, Maria; Lynnerup, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Non-invasive estimation of age at death has been carried out by using 3D CT scanning of a bog body discovered in 1948 in a peat bog in Borremose (Denmark). The bog body has been dated to the 8th century BC, in the last part of the Bronze Age. The skeletal structures useful for age estimation have...

  19. Estimating the age of Heliconius butterflies from calibrated photographs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Dalbosco Dell’Aglio

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mating behaviour and predation avoidance in Heliconius involve visual colour signals; however, there is considerable inter-individual phenotypic variation in the appearance of colours. In particular, the red pigment varies from bright crimson to faded red. It has been thought that this variation is primarily due to pigment fading with age, although this has not been explicitly tested. Previous studies have shown the importance of red patterns in mate choice and that birds and butterflies might perceive these small colour differences. Using digital photography and calibrated colour images, we investigated whether the hue variation in the forewing dorsal red band of Heliconius melpomene rosina corresponds with age. We found that the red hue and age were highly associated, suggesting that red colour can indeed be used as a proxy for age in the study of wild-caught butterflies.

  20. The problem of low thermoluminescence age estimates in geological dating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nambi, K.S.V.

    1983-01-01

    A systematic underestimate of the geological age by the TL technique has been observed in a variety of CaCO 3 samples of Quaternary to Precambrian ages. It is concluded that the TL dating clock in the CaCO 3 lattice stops when the alpha palaeodose =alpha (rad a -1 )x geological age (a) reaches about 100,000 rad. At this dose the natural thermoluminescence reaches perhaps a dynamic equilibrium level determined solely by the alpha activity of the sample. There are indications that the limiting alpha palaeodose beyond which TL dating is invalid is more or less the same for CaSO 4 and silicate samples, and it is convenient to note a limiting value of 3 million for the product of alpha activity (cph from 13.86 cm 2 ) and geological age (a). (author)

  1. Disturbances in Tooth Mineralization and Forensic Dental Age Estimations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels Dyrgaard; Arge, Sára Oladóttir; Larsen, Sara Tangmose

    When performing a forensic dental age assessment, mineralization disturbances of the teeth and the possible consequences these may have upon the reliability of the assessment must be taken into consideration. Furthermore, mineralization disturbances of a general character in the teeth may be seen...... as an indicator of more systemic insults during tooth formation and thus supplement the examination performed by the forensic pathologist. At our department the forensic dental age assessment is based upon a dental panoramic image, intra oral images of the third molars as well as a clinical photograph...

  2. Comparison of the effectiveness of phalanges vs. humeri and femurs to estimate lizard age with skeletochronology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comas, M.; Reguera, S.; Zamora-Camacho, F.J.; Salvado, H.; Moreno-Rueda, G.

    2016-01-01

    Skeletochronology allows estimation of lizard age with a single capture (from a bone), making long–term monitoring unnecessary. Nevertheless, this method often involves the death of the animal to obtain the bone. We tested the reliability of skeletochronology of phalanges (which may be obtained without killing) by comparing the estimated age from femurs and humeri with the age estimated from phalanges. Our results show skeletochronology of phalanges is a reliable method to estimate age in lizards as cross–section readings from all bones studied presented a high correlation and repeatability regardless of the bone chosen. This approach provides an alternative to the killing of lizards for skeletochronology studies. (Author)

  3. Comparison of the effectiveness of phalanges vs. humeri and femurs to estimate lizard age with skeletochronology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Comas, M.; Reguera, S.; Zamora-Camacho, F.J.; Salvado, H.; Moreno-Rueda, G.

    2016-07-01

    Skeletochronology allows estimation of lizard age with a single capture (from a bone), making long–term monitoring unnecessary. Nevertheless, this method often involves the death of the animal to obtain the bone. We tested the reliability of skeletochronology of phalanges (which may be obtained without killing) by comparing the estimated age from femurs and humeri with the age estimated from phalanges. Our results show skeletochronology of phalanges is a reliable method to estimate age in lizards as cross–section readings from all bones studied presented a high correlation and repeatability regardless of the bone chosen. This approach provides an alternative to the killing of lizards for skeletochronology studies. (Author)

  4. Postnatal growth, age estimation and development of foraging ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    growth after the first year (Kunz and Stern 1995). The values of the lengths of forearm and epiphyseal gap dur- ing their linear phases of growth increased during the preflight period and decreased during the postflight period, and were reliable for deriving equations to esti- mate the age of young bats (e.g. Kunz and Robson ...

  5. Can anchovy age structure be estimated from length distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The analysis provides a new time-series of proportions-at-age 1, together with associated standard errors, for input into assessments of the resource. The results also caution against the danger of scientists reading more information into data than is really there. Keywords: anchovy, effective sample size, length distribution, ...

  6. Aspartic acid racemisation in purified elastin from arteries as basis for age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobberstein, R C; Tung, S-M; Ritz-Timme, S

    2010-07-01

    Aspartic acid racemisation (AAR) results in an age-dependent accumulation of D: -aspartic acid in durable human proteins and can be used as a basis for age estimation. Routinely, age estimation based on AAR is performed by analysis of dentine. However, in forensic practise, teeth are not always available. Non-dental tissues for age estimation may be suitable for age estimation based on AAR if they contain durable proteins that can be purified and analysed. Elastin is such a durable protein. To clarify if purified elastin from arteries is a suitable sample for biochemical age estimation, AAR was determined in purified elastin from arteries from individuals of known age (n = 68 individuals, including n = 15 putrefied corpses), considering the influence of different stages of atherosclerosis and putrefaction on the AAR values. AAR was found to increase with age. The relationship between AAR and age was good enough to serve as basis for age estimation, but worse than known from dentinal proteins. Intravital and post-mortem degradation of elastin may have a moderate effect on the AAR values. Age estimation based on AAR in purified elastin from arteries may be a valuable additional tool in the identification of unidentified cadavers, especially in cases where other methods cannot be applied (e.g., no available teeth and body parts).

  7. Size-based estimation of the status of fish stocks: simulation analysis and comparison with age-based estimations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokkalis, Alexandros; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Nielsen, Anders

    , were investigated and our estimations were compared to the ICES advice. Only size-specific catch data were used, in order to emulate data limited situations. The simulation analysis reveals that the status of the stock, i.e. F/Fmsy, is estimated more accurately than the fishing mortality F itself....... Specific knowledge of the natural mortality improves the estimation more than having information about all other life history parameters. Our approach gives, at least qualitatively, an estimated stock status which is similar to the results of an age-based assessment. Since our approach only uses size...

  8. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula A White

    Full Text Available Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR. Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

  9. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

  10. Thermoluminescence and new 14C age estimates for late quaternary loesses in southwestern Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maat, P.B.; Johnson, W.C.

    1996-01-01

    Loess of late Quaternary age mantles most of Nebraska south of the Platte River Valley. At least five late Quaternary loesses are recognized: from oldest to youngest, one or more undifferentiated pre-lllinoian loesses, the Loveland Loess, the Gilman Canyon Loess, which exhibits a well developed soil and rests unconformably on the Sangamon soil, the Peoria Loess capped by the Brady soil, and the Bignell Loess, which is distributed discontinuously. Previous research shows that the Loveland Loess is Illinoian. the Gilman Canyon Loess and Peoria Loess are Wisconsin, and the Bignell Loess is Holocene. We present here the first thermoluminescence (TL) age estimates and new C ages for these late Quaternary loesses at two key sections in southwestern Nebraska, the Eustis ash pit and the Bignell Hill road cut. TL age estimates from all samples collected from Eustis ash pit and Bignell Hill were internally consistent. TL and C age estimates from these two sections generally agree and support previous age determinations. The TL age estimate on Loveland Loess indicates deposition at 163 ka. TL and radiocarbon age estimates indicate that Oilman Canyon Loess, believed to be deposited during the Farmdale interstade, first began to accumulate at about 40 ka: the lower part of the Gilman Canyon Loess is 36 ka at Eustis and the middle of the unit is 30 ka at Bignell Hill. The lower and upper parts of the Peoria Loess give age estimates of 24 ka and 17 ka, respectively. TL age estimates for deposition of the Bignell Loess are 9 ka near the base, in agreement with radiocarbon age estimates, and 6 ka immediately below the modern soil, substantiating its Holocene age. Comparisons of TL age estimates with ??18O and insolation curves which show loess deposition during interglacial and interstadial as well as glacial periods, indicate that loess deposition on the Great Plains can occur under a variety of climatic conditions.

  11. Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moreangels M Mbizah

    Full Text Available African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i counting cementum annuli (ii pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height (iv tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio (v tooth weight and (vi skull measurements (length, width and height. A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6-24 months; 25-60 months and > 60 months, with a McFadden's Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a

  12. Age estimation of burbot using pectoral fin rays, brachiostegal rays, and otoliths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

    2014-01-01

    Throughout much of its native distribution, burbot (Lota lota) is a species of conservation concern. Understanding dynamic rate functions is critical for the effective management of sensitive burbot populations, which necessitates accurate and precise age estimates. Managing sensitive burbot populations requires an accurate and precise non-lethal alternative. In an effort to identify a non-lethal ageing structure, we compared the precision of age estimates obtained from otoliths, pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays from 208 burbot collected from the Green River drainage, Wyoming. Additionally, we compared the accuracy of age estimates from pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays to those of otoliths. Dorsal fin rays were immediately deemed a poor ageing structure and removed from further analysis. Age-bias plots of consensus ages derived from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were appreciably different from those obtained from otoliths. Exact agreement between readers and reader confidence was highest for otoliths and lowest for branchiostegal rays. Age-bias plots indicated that age estimates obtained from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were substantially different from age estimates obtained from otoliths. Our results indicate that otoliths provide the most precise age estimates for burbot.

  13. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy W Grovenburg

    Full Text Available New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i

  14. Precision of four otolith techniques for estimating age of white perch from a thermally altered reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Richard A.; Porta, Michael J.; Long, James M.

    2018-01-01

    The White Perch Morone americana is an invasive species in many Midwestern states and is widely distributed in reservoir systems, yet little is known about the species' age structure and population dynamics. White Perch were first observed in Sooner Reservoir, a thermally altered cooling reservoir in Oklahoma, by the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation in 2006. It is unknown how thermally altered systems like Sooner Reservoir may affect the precision of White Perch age estimates. Previous studies have found that age structures from Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides and Bluegills Lepomis macrochirus from thermally altered reservoirs had false annuli, which increased error when estimating ages. Our objective was to quantify the precision of White Perch age estimates using four sagittal otolith preparation techniques (whole, broken, browned, and stained). Because Sooner Reservoir is thermally altered, we also wanted to identify the best month to collect a White Perch age sample based on aging precision. Ages of 569 White Perch (20–308 mm TL) were estimated using the four techniques. Age estimates from broken, stained, and browned otoliths ranged from 0 to 8 years; whole‐view otolith age estimates ranged from 0 to 7 years. The lowest mean coefficient of variation (CV) was obtained using broken otoliths, whereas the highest CV was observed using browned otoliths. July was the most precise month (lowest mean CV) for estimating age of White Perch, whereas April was the least precise month (highest mean CV). These results underscore the importance of knowing the best method to prepare otoliths for achieving the most precise age estimates and the best time of year to obtain those samples, as these factors may affect other estimates of population dynamics.

  15. Age estimation of living Indian individuals based on aspartic acid racemization from tooth biopsy specimen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastogi, Manu; Logani, Ajay; Shah, Naseem; Kumar, Abhishek; Arora, Saurabh

    2017-01-01

    Background: Age estimation in living individuals is imperative to amicably settle civil and criminal disputes. A biochemical method based on amino acid racemization was evaluated for age estimation of living Indian individuals. Design: Caries-free maxillary/mandibular premolar teeth (n = 90) were collected from participants with age proof documents and divided into predefined nine age groups. Materials and Methods: Dentine biopsy from the labial aspect of the tooth crown was taken with an indigenously developed microtrephine. The samples were processed and subjected to gas chromatography. Dextrorotatory:levorotatory ratios were calculated, and a regression equation was formulated. Results: Across all age groups, an error of 0 ± 4 years between protein racemization age and chronological age was observed. Conclusion: Aspartic acid racemization from dentine biopsy samples could be a viable and accurate technique for age estimation of living individuals who have attained a state of skeletal maturity. PMID:29263613

  16. Paleomagnetism and radiochemical age estimates for Late Brunhes polarity episodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denham, C.R.; Anderson, R.F.; Bacon, M.P.

    1977-01-01

    Several reversed polarity magnetozones occur within deep-sea sediment core CH57-8 from the Greater Antilles Outer Ridge, within sediment of latest Pleistocene/Late Brunhes age. The uppermost reversed interval spanning 31 data points coincides with the X faunal zone of the Last Interglacial Period. Radiochemical dating of cores CH57-8 and KN25-4 has shown that all the reversed polarity magnetozones are significantly younger than the Brunhes/Matuyama boundary at 0.7 m.y.B.P. A variation of the excess 230 Th method was used, in which 210 Po and 238 U were the actual radionuclides measured. In a third core from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the 210 Po results were similar to those which others obtained earlier by direct 230 Th measurements. (Auth.)

  17. Elevated estimated arterial age is associated with metabolic syndrome and low-grade inflammation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Sara V; Blicher, Marie K; Kruger, Ruan

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Arterial age can be estimated from equations relating arterial stiffness to age and blood pressure in large cohorts. We investigated whether estimated arterial age (eAA) was elevated in patients with the metabolic syndrome and/or known cardiovascular disease (CVD), which factors were...... of metabolic syndrome, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation, or Framingham risk score. From age, mean blood pressure, and cfPWV, eAA and estimated cfPWV (ePWV) were calculated. In 2006, the combined cardiovascular endpoint (CEP) of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke...

  18. Improvement of age estimation using amino acid racemization in a case of pink teeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohtani, S; Yamada, Y; Yamamoto, I

    1998-03-01

    Age was estimated from pink teeth using racemization of dentinal aspartic acid. Materials for identification were two lower second premolars. The body was determined to be that of a 40-year-old man; however, the age of the decedent had been estimated to be 29 and 30 years by the conventional method and 30 years from findings in the oral cavity. To clarify the cause of this difference, the powdered teeth were further washed in 0.01 mol/L hydrochloric acid. The racemization ratio (D/L ratio) of ordinary white teeth from persons of known age was slightly lower than that before washing, whereas that of the teeth used for identification was higher than before washing. The calculated age of the decedent using the racemization ratio of his teeth was between 36 and 37 years. These results suggest that age estimated from pink teeth is probably underestimated, but a more accurate age estimate can be obtained after adequate washing.

  19. The ossification pattern in paediatric occipito-cervical spine: is it possible to estimate real age?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, H.J.; Kim, J.T.; Shin, M.H.; Choi, D.Y.; Park, Y.S.; Hong, J.T.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To retrospectively analyse the synchondrosis from the occipital bone to the whole cervical spine and determine the feasibility and validity of age estimation using computed tomography (CT) images. Material and methods: A total of 231 cervical spine or neck CT images of young children (<7 years of age) were examined. Twelve ossification centres were assessed (occiput: n = 2; atlas: n = 2; axis, n = 6; whole sub-axial vertebra: n = 2), and the ossification process was graded as open (O, fully lucent), osseous bridging (B, partially ossified), and fusion (F, totally ossified). After the first analysis was completed, the resulting chronological chart was used to estimate the age of 10 new cases in order to confirm the usefulness of the chart. Results: Infancy was easily estimated using the sub-axial or C2 posterior ossification centres, while the posterior occipital regions provided good estimation of age between 1–2 years. The most difficult period for accurate age estimation was between 2–4 years. However, the C2 anterior (neurocentral ossification) and C1 posterior regions did yield information to help determine the age around 3 years. The anterior occipital region was useful for age estimation between 4–5 years, and the C1-anterior region was potentially useful to help decide among the other parameters. The test for age estimation (TAE) had a very high ICC score (0.973) among the three observers. Conclusion: Segmentalised analysis can enhance the ability to estimate real age, at least by the year. The analysis of the occipital bone made a strong contribution to the usefulness of the chorological chart. An organised chronological chart can provide readily available information for age estimation, and the primary application of the above data (TAE) demonstrated the validity of this approach. -- Highlights: •Subaxial or C2 posterior regions was useful for age estimation between 0–1 year. •Posterior occipital regions provided good estimation of

  20. Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen, Sara Tangmose

    2016-01-01

    When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regres...... the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range.......When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical...... regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple...

  1. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-01-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age

  2. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-03-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

  3. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas [Faculty of Dentistry, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai (Thailand)

    2016-03-15

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

  4. Estimation of age structure of fish populations from length-frequency data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, K.D.; Adams, S.M.

    1977-01-01

    A probability model is presented to determine the age structure of a fish population from length-frequency data. It is shown that when the age-length key is available, maximum-likelihood estimates of the age structure can be obtained. When the key is not available, approximate estimates of the age structure can be obtained. The model is used for determination of the age structure of populations of channel catfish and white crappie. Practical applications of the model to impact assessment are discussed

  5. Application of a novel method for age estimation of a baleen whale and a porpoise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Nynne H.; Garde, Eva; Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter

    2013-01-01

    Eyeballs from 121 fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) and 83 harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) were used for age estimation using the aspartic acid racemization (AAR) technique. The racemization rate (kAsp) for fin whales was established from 15 fetuses (age 0) and 15 adult whales where age...

  6. Evaluation of Cases Admitted for Age Estimation to Forensic Medicine Department Between 2006 and 2010 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Yildirim

    2011-06-01

    Conclusion: In conclusion age determination continues to be one of the important issues of forensic medicine. In cases of age determination, more accurate estimates can be accomplished when radiologically determined age is considered in conjunction with clinical findings such as dental, mental, and psychologic development. [J Contemp Med 2011; 1(2.000: 56-61

  7. Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.; Mech, L.D.

    2000-01-01

    We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ?? 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ???9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.

  8. Gene expression during blow fly development: improving the precision of age estimates in forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

    2011-01-01

    Forensic entomologists use size and developmental stage to estimate blow fly age, and from those, a postmortem interval. Since such estimates are generally accurate but often lack precision, particularly in the older developmental stages, alternative aging methods would be advantageous. Presented here is a means of incorporating developmentally regulated gene expression levels into traditional stage and size data, with a goal of more precisely estimating developmental age of immature Lucilia sericata. Generalized additive models of development showed improved statistical support compared to models that did not include gene expression data, resulting in an increase in estimate precision, especially for postfeeding third instars and pupae. The models were then used to make blind estimates of development for 86 immature L. sericata raised on rat carcasses. Overall, inclusion of gene expression data resulted in increased precision in aging blow flies. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  9. [Forensic age estimation in juveniles and young adults: Reducing the range of scatter in age diagnosis by combining different methods].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Sven; Schramm, Danilo; Ribbecke, Sebastian; Schulz, Ronald; Wittschieber, Daniel; Olze, Andreas; Vieth, Volker; Ramsthaler, H Frank; Pfischel, Klaus; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Geserick, Gunther; Schmeling, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    The dramatic rise in the number of refugees entering Germany means that age estimation for juveniles and young adults whose age is unclear but relevant to legal and official procedures has become more important than ever. Until now, whether and to what extent the combination of methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics has resulted in a reduction of the range of scatter of the summarized age diagnosis has been unclear. Hand skeletal age, third molar mineralization stage and ossification stage of the medial clavicular epiphyses were determined for 307 individuals aged between 10 and 29 at time of death on whom autopsies were performed at the Institutes of Legal Medicine in Berlin, Frankfurt am Main and Hamburg between 2001 and 2011. To measure the range of scatter, linear regression analysis was used to calculate the standard error of estimate for each of the above methods individually and in combination. It was found that combining the above methods led to a reduction in the range of scatter. Due to various limitations of the study, the statistical parameters determined cannot, however, be used for age estimation practice.

  10. Age Estimation Robust to Optical and Motion Blurring by Deep Residual CNN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeon Seong Kang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Recently, real-time human age estimation based on facial images has been applied in various areas. Underneath this phenomenon lies an awareness that age estimation plays an important role in applying big data to target marketing for age groups, product demand surveys, consumer trend analysis, etc. However, in a real-world environment, various optical and motion blurring effects can occur. Such effects usually cause a problem in fully capturing facial features such as wrinkles, which are essential to age estimation, thereby degrading accuracy. Most of the previous studies on age estimation were conducted for input images almost free from blurring effect. To overcome this limitation, we propose the use of a deep ResNet-152 convolutional neural network for age estimation, which is robust to various optical and motion blurring effects of visible light camera sensors. We performed experiments with various optical and motion blurred images created from the park aging mind laboratory (PAL and craniofacial longitudinal morphological face database (MORPH databases, which are publicly available. According to the results, the proposed method exhibited better age estimation performance than the previous methods.

  11. Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

    2015-12-01

    A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years. Copyright © 2015

  12. Is Greulich–Pyle age estimation applicable for determining maturation in male Africans?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan G. Morri

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Skeletal age estimation as a means of assessing development and skeletal maturation in children and adolescents is of great importance for clinical and forensic purposes. The skeletal age of a test population is estimated by comparison with established standards, the most common standards being those in the Radiographic atlas of skeletal development of the hand and wristpublished by Greulich and Pyle in 1959. These standards are based on the assumption that skeletal maturity in male individuals is attained by the chronological age of 19 years. Although they have been widely tested, the applicability of these standards to contemporary populations has yet to be tested on a population of African biological origin living in South Africa. We therefore estimated the skeletal age of 131 male Africans aged between 13 and 21 years, using the Greulich–Pyle method which we applied to pre-existing hand–wrist radiographs. Estimated skeletal age was compared to the known chronological age for each radiograph. Skeletal age was on average approximately 6 months younger than chronological age. The Greulich–Pyle method underestimated skeletal age for approximately 74%of the sample and overestimated skeletal age for 26%of the sample. Skeletal maturity as characterised by complete epiphyseal fusion occurred approximately 2.1 years later than Greulich and Pyle’s estimate of 19 years. Thus skeletal maturation was still in progress in a large proportion of the 20- and 21-year-old individuals in our study. The Greulich–Pyle method showed high precision but low accuracy and was therefore not directly applicable to African male individuals. Formulation of skeletal age estimation standards specific to South African populations is therefore recommended.

  13. Artificial Neural Networks and Gene Expression Programing based age estimation using facial features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baddrud Z. Laskar

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work is about estimating human age automatically through analysis of facial images. It has got a lot of real-world applications. Due to prompt advances in the fields of machine vision, facial image processing, and computer graphics, automatic age estimation via faces in computer is one of the dominant topics these days. This is due to widespread real-world applications, in areas of biometrics, security, surveillance, control, forensic art, entertainment, online customer management and support, along with cosmetology. As it is difficult to estimate the exact age, this system is to estimate a certain range of ages. Four sets of classifications have been used to differentiate a person’s data into one of the different age groups. The uniqueness about this study is the usage of two technologies i.e., Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and Gene Expression Programing (GEP to estimate the age and then compare the results. New methodologies like Gene Expression Programing (GEP have been explored here and significant results were found. The dataset has been developed to provide more efficient results by superior preprocessing methods. This proposed approach has been developed, tested and trained using both the methods. A public data set was used to test the system, FG-NET. The quality of the proposed system for age estimation using facial features is shown by broad experiments on the available database of FG-NET.

  14. Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

    2016-06-28

    Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages.

  15. Precision and accuracy of commonly used dental age estimation charts for the New Zealand population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baylis, Stephanie; Bassed, Richard

    2017-08-01

    Little research has been undertaken for the New Zealand population in the field of dental age estimation. This research to date indicates there are differences in dental developmental rates between the New Zealand population and other global population groups, and within the New Zealand population itself. Dental age estimation methods range from dental development charts to complex biometric analysis. Dental development charts are not the most accurate method of dental age estimation, but are time saving in their use. They are an excellent screening tool, particularly for post-mortem identification purposes, and for assessing variation from population norms in living individuals. The aim of this study was to test the precision and accuracy of three dental development charts (Schour and Massler, Blenkin and Taylor, and the London Atlas), used to estimate dental age of a sample of New Zealand juveniles between the ages of 5 and 18 years old (n=875). Percentage 'best fit' to correct age category and to expected chart stage were calculated to determine which chart was the most precise for the sample. Chronological ages were compared to estimated dental ages using a two-tailed paired t-test (Pcharts tested against the New Zealand population sample, the Blenkin and Taylor Australian charts performed best overall. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Point-of-care estimation of haemoglobin concentration in all age ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Point-of-care estimation of haemoglobin concentration in all age groups in clinical ... and the results were compared using standard scatter and difference plots. ... Hb measurements with a smaller sample volume, improved turnaround time, ...

  17. Is Greulich–Pyle age estimation applicable for determining maturation in male Africans?

    OpenAIRE

    Alan G. Morri; Kundisai A. Dembetembe

    2012-01-01

    Skeletal age estimation as a means of assessing development and skeletal maturation in children and adolescents is of great importance for clinical and forensic purposes. The skeletal age of a test population is estimated by comparison with established standards, the most common standards being those in the Radiographic atlas of skeletal development of the hand and wristpublished by Greulich and Pyle in 1959. These standards are based on the assumption that skeletal maturity in male individua...

  18. Dental age estimation from the developmental stage of the third molars in western Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guo; Ren, Jiayin; Zhao, Shuping; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Na; Wu, Wanhong; Yuan, Shanshan; Wang, Hu

    2012-06-10

    The purpose of this study is to provide reference data about estimating dental age from third molars of the western Chinese population for comparing with other populations and being applied to the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents. A total of 2078 digital panoramic radiographs of 989 male and 1089 female Chinese subjects aged between 5 and 23 years were examined. The mineralization status of the third molars was assessed using the formation stages described by Demirjian et al. with two modifications. The results showed that the development of third molars in the western Chinese population was likely to begin at age 5 in both males and females. The third molars 28 and 48 showed significantly higher frequency in females than in males. The third molars 18 in the stage 1, 38 in the stages 1, A and G, and 48 in the stage H showed significantly older average age in females than in males. The Demirjian's stages C and D could be used as a reference stage to determine dichotomously whether a western Chinese is more likely to be under or above age 14 or 16, respectively. This study provided reference data for the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents by the mineralization stages of the third molar. Apart from forensic age determination in living subjects, the presented reference data can also be used for age estimations of unidentified corpses and skeletons. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Radiological age estimation: based on third molar mineralization and eruption in Turkish children and young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadayi, Beytullah; Kaya, Ahsen; Kolusayın, Melek Ozlem; Karadayi, Sükriye; Afsin, Hüseyin; Ozaslan, Abdi

    2012-11-01

    Radiographic evaluation of mineralization and eruption stages of third molars using dental panoramic radiographies can be an efficient tool for chronological age estimation in both forensic sciences and legal medicine. The third molar tooth is utilized for dental age estimation about the age span of 15-23 years because it represents the only tooth still in development. The aim of this study is to obtain and analyze data regarding third molar development and eruption in Turkish population for dental age estimation. A total of 744 dental panoramic radiographies of 394 female and 350 male subjects aged between 8 and 22 years were examined. Third molar development was determined according to the Nolla classification system, and eruption was assessed relative to the alveolar bone level. Mandibular and maxillary third molars were generally found at similar stages of development on both sides. Nolla stage 6 (completed crown calcification) was reached at around the age of 15 in both maxillary and mandibular third molars in both sexes. Alveolar emergence was at around the age of 16 in males and around age of 17 in females. Although third molars' eruption shows greater variability than development of third molars, data which were obtained from this study about eruption of these teeth can be supportive to development data for age estimation.

  20. An age estimation method using brain local features for T1-weighted images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondo, Chihiro; Ito, Koichi; Kai Wu; Sato, Kazunori; Taki, Yasuyuki; Fukuda, Hiroshi; Aoki, Takafumi

    2015-08-01

    Previous statistical analysis studies using large-scale brain magnetic resonance (MR) image databases have examined that brain tissues have age-related morphological changes. This fact indicates that one can estimate the age of a subject from his/her brain MR image by evaluating morphological changes with healthy aging. This paper proposes an age estimation method using local features extracted from T1-weighted MR images. The brain local features are defined by volumes of brain tissues parcellated into local regions defined by the automated anatomical labeling atlas. The proposed method selects optimal local regions to improve the performance of age estimation. We evaluate performance of the proposed method using 1,146 T1-weighted images from a Japanese MR image database. We also discuss the medical implication of selected optimal local regions.

  1. Economic productivity by age and sex: 2007 estimates for the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosse, Scott D; Krueger, Kurt V; Mvundura, Mercy

    2009-07-01

    Human capital estimates of labor productivity are often used to estimate the economic impact of diseases and injuries that cause incapacitation or death. Estimates of average hourly, annual, and lifetime economic productivity, both market and household, were calculated in 2007 US dollars for 5-year age groups for men, women, and both sexes in the United States. Data from the American Time Use Survey were used to estimate hours of paid work and household services and hourly and annual earnings and household productivity. Present values of discounted lifetime earnings were calculated for each age group using the 2004 US life tables and a discount rate of 3% per year and assuming future productivity growth of 1% per year. The estimates of hours and productivity were calculated using the time diaries of 72,922 persons included in the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003 to 2007. The present value of lifetime productivity is approximately $1.2 million in 2007 dollars for children under 5 years of age. For adults in their 20s and 30s, it is approximately $1.6 million and then it declines with increasing age. Productivity estimates are higher for males than for females, more for market productivity than for total productivity. Changes in hours of paid employment and household services can affect economic productivity by age and sex. This is the first publication to include estimates of household services based on contemporary time use data for the US population.

  2. Applying Deep Learning in Medical Images: The Case of Bone Age Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jang Hyung; Kim, Kwang Gi

    2018-01-01

    A diagnostic need often arises to estimate bone age from X-ray images of the hand of a subject during the growth period. Together with measured physical height, such information may be used as indicators for the height growth prognosis of the subject. We present a way to apply the deep learning technique to medical image analysis using hand bone age estimation as an example. Age estimation was formulated as a regression problem with hand X-ray images as input and estimated age as output. A set of hand X-ray images was used to form a training set with which a regression model was trained. An image preprocessing procedure is described which reduces image variations across data instances that are unrelated to age-wise variation. The use of Caffe, a deep learning tool is demonstrated. A rather simple deep learning network was adopted and trained for tutorial purpose. A test set distinct from the training set was formed to assess the validity of the approach. The measured mean absolute difference value was 18.9 months, and the concordance correlation coefficient was 0.78. It is shown that the proposed deep learning-based neural network can be used to estimate a subject's age from hand X-ray images, which eliminates the need for tedious atlas look-ups in clinical environments and should improve the time and cost efficiency of the estimation process.

  3. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dat Tien Nguyen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method.

  4. A radiographic study estimating age of mandibular third molars by periodontal ligament visibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhary, M A; Liversidge, H M

    2017-12-01

    Visibility of the periodontal ligament of mandibular third molars (M3) has been suggested as a method to estimate age. To assess the accuracy of this method and compare the visibility of the periodontal ligament in the left M3 with the right M3. The sample was archived panoramic dental radiographs of 163 individuals (75 males, 88 females, age 16-53 years) with mature M3's. Reliability was assessed using Kappa. Accuracy was assessed by subtracting chronological age from estimated age for males and females. Stages were cross-tabulated against age stages younger than and at least 18 and 21 years of age. Stages were compared in the left M3 and right M3. Analysis showed excellent intra-observer reliability. Mean difference between estimated and chronological ages was 7.21 years (SD 5.16) for left M3 and 7.69 (SD 6.08) for right M3 in males and 6.87 (SD 5.83) for left M3 and 8.61 (SD 6.58) for right M3 in females. Minimum ages of stages 0 to 2 were younger than previously reported, despite a small sample of individuals younger than 18. The left and right M3 stage differed in 46% of the 85 individuals with readings from both side and estimated age differed from -10.5 to 12.2 years between left and right. Accuracy of this method was between 6 and 8 years with an error of 5 to 6 years. The number of individuals with mature M3 apices younger than 18 years was small. The stage of visibility of the periodontal ligament differed between left and right in almost half of our sample with both teeth present. Our findings question the use of this method to estimate age or to discriminate between age younger and at least 18 years.

  5. Age estimation, growth rate and size at sexual maturity of tigerfish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A total of 206 tigerfish Hydrocynus vittatus, collected by angling in August 2005, 2006 and 2007, was assessed for sexual maturity and relative ages were estimated from 135 of these, using scales and whole and sectioned otoliths. Sectioned otoliths were the most appropriate method for ageing H. vittatus of up to 20 years ...

  6. Specific and unspecific gynecological alarm symptoms -prevalence estimates in different age groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balasubramaniam, Kirubakaran; Ravn, Pernille; Larsen, Pia V

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine prevalence estimates of gynecological alarm symptoms in different age groups and to describe common patterns of gynecological symptoms. DESIGN: Web-based cross-sectional survey study. SETTING: Nationwide in Denmark. POPULATION: A random sample of 51 090 women aged 20 years...

  7. Estimating stock parameters from trawl cpue-at-age series using year-class curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cotter, A.J.R.; Mesnil, B.; Piet, G.J.

    2007-01-01

    A year-class curve is a plot of log cpue (catch per unit effort) over age for a single year class of a species (in contrast to the better known catch curve, fitted to multiple year classes at one time). When linear, the intercept and slope estimate the log cpue at age 0 and the average rate of total

  8. Challenging ICES age estimation protocols: lessons learned from the eastern Baltic cod stock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hüssy, Karin; Radtke, Krzysztof; Plikshs, Maris

    2016-01-01

    Over the recent decades, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has set guidelines for best practise quality control of age estimation procedures. The applicability of these guidelines is assessed by reviewing the ageing issues of eastern Baltic cod (EBC) as a case study....

  9. On the age and metallicity estimation of spiral galaxies using optical and near-infrared photometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Worthey, Guy; Trager, Scott C.; Faber, S. M.

    2007-01-01

    In integrated light, some color-color diagrams that use optical and near-infrared photometry show surprisingly orthogonal grids as age and metallicity are varied, and they are coming into common usage for estimating the average age and metallicity of spiral galaxies. In this paper we reconstruct

  10. ESTIMATION OF INTRINSIC AND EXTRINSIC ENVIRONMENT FACTORS OF AGE-RELATED TOOTH COLOUR CHANGES

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hyšpler, P.; Jezbera, D.; Fürst, T.; Mikšík, Ivan; Waclawek, M.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 4 (2010), s. 515-525 ISSN 1898-6196 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : age-related colour changes of teeth * intrinsic and extrinsic factors * 3D mathematical regression models * estimation of real age Subject RIV: ED - Physiology Impact factor: 0.294, year: 2010

  11. Forensic age estimation based on development of third molars: a staging technique for magnetic resonance imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, J; Phlypo, I; Fieuws, S; Politis, C; Verstraete, K L; Thevissen, P W

    2017-12-01

    The development of third molars can be evaluated with medical imaging to estimate age in subadults. The appearance of third molars on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) differs greatly from that on radiographs. Therefore a specific staging technique is necessary to classify third molar development on MRI and to apply it for age estimation. To develop a specific staging technique to register third molar development on MRI and to evaluate its performance for age estimation in subadults. Using 3T MRI in three planes, all third molars were evaluated in 309 healthy Caucasian participants from 14 to 26 years old. According to the appearance of the developing third molars on MRI, descriptive criteria and schematic representations were established to define a specific staging technique. Two observers, with different levels of experience, staged all third molars independently with the developed technique. Intra- and inter-observer agreement were calculated. The data were imported in a Bayesian model for age estimation as described by Fieuws et al. (2016). This approach adequately handles correlation between age indicators and missing age indicators. It was used to calculate a point estimate and a prediction interval of the estimated age. Observed age minus predicted age was calculated, reflecting the error of the estimate. One-hundred and sixty-six third molars were agenetic. Five percent (51/1096) of upper third molars and 7% (70/1044) of lower third molars were not assessable. Kappa for inter-observer agreement ranged from 0.76 to 0.80. For intra-observer agreement kappa ranged from 0.80 to 0.89. However, two stage differences between observers or between staging sessions occurred in up to 2.2% (20/899) of assessments, probably due to a learning effect. Using the Bayesian model for age estimation, a mean absolute error of 2.0 years in females and 1.7 years in males was obtained. Root mean squared error equalled 2.38 years and 2.06 years respectively. The performance to

  12. Development of a biometric method to estimate age on hand radiographs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, Floriane; Hossu, Gabriela; Cendre, Romain; Micard, Emilien; Mainard-Simard, Laurence; Felblinger, Jacques; Martrille, Laurent; Lalys, Loïc

    2017-02-01

    Age estimation of living individuals aged less than 13, 18 or 21 years, which are some relevant legal ages in most European countries, is currently problematic in the forensic context. Thus, numerous methods are available for legal authorities, although their efficiency can be discussed. For those reasons, we aimed to propose a new method, based on the biometric analysis of hand bones. 451 hand radiographs of French individuals under the age of 21 were retrospectively analyzed. This total sample was divided into three subgroups bounded by the relevant legal ages previously mentioned: 0-13, 13-18 and 18-21 years. On these radiographs, we numerically applied the osteometric board method used in anthropology, by including each metacarpal and proximal phalange of the five hand rays in the smallest rectangle possible. In that we can access their length and width information thanks to a measurement protocol developed precisely for our treatment with the ORS Visual ® software. Then, a statistical analysis was performed from these biometric data: a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) evaluated the probability for an individual to belong to one of the age group (0-13, 13-18 or 18-21); and several multivariate regression models were tested for the establishment of age estimation formulas for each of these age groups. The mean Correlation Coefficient between chronological age and both lengths and widths of hand bones is equal to 0.90 for the total sample. Repeatability and reproducibility were assessed. The LDA could more easily predict the belonging to the 0-13 age group. Age can be estimated with a mean standard error which never exceeds 1 year for the 95% confidence interval. Finally, compared to the literature, we can conclude that estimating an age from the biometric information of metacarpals and proximal phalanges is promising. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated

  14. An overview of age estimation in forensic anthropology: perspectives and practical considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez-Grant, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    Information on methods of age estimation in physical anthropology, in particular with regard to age-at-death from human skeletal remains, is widely available in the literature. However, the practicalities and real challenges faced in forensic casework are not always highlighted. To provide a practitioner's perspective, regarding age estimation in forensic anthropology (both in the living as well as the dead), with an emphasis on the types of cases, the value of such work and its challenges and limitations. The paper reviews the current literature on age estimation with a focus on forensic anthropology, but it also brings the author's personal perspective derived from a number of forensic cases. Although much is known about what methods to use, but not always how to apply them, little attention has been given in the literature to the real practicalities faced by forensic anthropologists, for example: the challenges in different types of scenarios; how to report age estimations; responsibilities; and ethical concerns. This paper gathers some of these aspects into one overview which includes the value of such work and the practical challenges, not necessarily with the methods themselves, but also with regard to how these are applied in the different cases where age estimation is required.

  15. Setting the light conditions for measuring root transparency for age-at-death estimation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Nogué-Navarro, Laia; Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2018-03-01

    Age-at-death estimation is one of the main goals in forensic identification, being an essential parameter to determine the biological profile, narrowing the possibility of identification in cases involving missing persons and unidentified bodies. The study of dental tissues has been long considered as a proper tool for age estimation with several age estimation methods based on them. Dental age estimation methods can be divided into three categories: tooth formation and development, post-formation changes, and histological changes. While tooth formation and growth changes are important for fetal and infant consideration, when the end of dental and skeletal growth is achieved, post-formation or biochemical changes can be applied. Lamendin et al. in J Forensic Sci 37:1373-1379, (1992) developed an adult age estimation method based on root transparency and periodontal recession. The regression formula demonstrated its accuracy of use for 40 to 70-year-old individuals. Later on, Prince and Ubelaker in J Forensic Sci 47(1):107-116, (2002) evaluated the effects of ancestry and sex and incorporated root height into the equation, developing four new regression formulas for males and females of African and European ancestry. Even though root transparency is a key element in the method, the conditions for measuring this element have not been established. The aim of the present study is to set the light conditions measured in lumens that offer greater accuracy when applying the Lamendin et al. method modified by Prince and Ubelaker. The results must be also taken into account in the application of other age estimation methodologies using root transparency to estimate age-at-death.

  16. Defining and Estimating Healthy Aging in Spain: A Cross-sectional Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Laso, Angel; McLaughlin, Sara J; Urdaneta, Elena; Yanguas, Javier

    2018-03-19

    Using an operational continuum of healthy aging developed by U.S. researchers, we sought to estimate the prevalence of healthy aging among older Spaniards, inform the development of a definition of healthy aging in Spain, and foster cross-national research on healthy aging. The ELES pilot study is a nationwide, cross-sectional survey of community-dwelling Spaniards 50 years and older. The prevalence of healthy aging was calculated for the 65 and over population using varying definitions. To evaluate their validity, we examined the association of healthy aging with the 8 foot up & go test, quality of life scores and self-perceived health using multiple linear and logistic regression. The estimated prevalence of healthy aging varied across the operational continuum, from 4.5% to 49.2%. Prevalence figures were greater for men and those aged 65 to 79 years and were higher than in the United States. Predicted mean physical performance scores were similar for 3 of the 4 definitions, suggesting that stringent definitions of healthy aging offer little advantage over a more moderate one. Similar to U.S. researchers, we recommend a definition of healthy aging that incorporates measures of functional health and limiting disease as opposed to definitions requiring the absence of all disease in studies designed to assess the effect of policy initiatives on healthy aging.

  17. Age estimation by canines' pulp/tooth ratio in an Iranian population using digital panoramic radiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehghani, Mahdieh; Shadkam, Elaheh; Ahrari, Farzaneh; Dehghani, Mahboobe

    2018-04-01

    Age estimation in adults is an important issue in forensic science. This study aimed to estimate the chronological age of Iranians by means of pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of canines in digital panoramic radiographs. The sample consisted of panoramic radiographs of 271 male and female subjects aged 16-64 years. The pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of upper and lower canines was calculated by AutoCAD software. Data were subjected to correlation and regression analysis. There was a significant and inverse correlation between age and pulp/tooth area ratio of upper and lower canines (r=-0.794 for upper canine and r=-0.282 for lower canine; p-value<0.001). Linear regression equations were derived separately for upper, lower and both canines. The mean difference between actual and estimated age using upper canine was 6.07±1.7. The results showed that the pulp/tooth area ratios of canines are a reliable method for age estimation in Iranians. The pulp/tooth area ratio of upper canine was better correlated with chronological age than that of lower canine. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Clonal diversity and estimation of relative clone age: application to agrobiodiversity of yam (Dioscorea rotundata).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarcelli, Nora; Couderc, Marie; Baco, Mohamed N; Egah, Janvier; Vigouroux, Yves

    2013-11-13

    Clonal propagation is a particular reproductive system found in both the plant and animal kingdoms, from human parasites to clonally propagated crops. Clonal diversity provides information about plant and animal evolutionary history, i.e. how clones spread, or the age of a particular clone. In plants, this could provide valuable information about agrobiodiversity dynamics and more broadly about the evolutionary history of a particular crop. We studied the evolutionary history of yam, Dioscorea rotundata. In Africa, Yam is cultivated by tuber clonal propagation. We used 12 microsatellite markers to identify intra-clonal diversity in yam varieties. We then used this diversity to assess the relative ages of clones. Using simulations, we assessed how Approximate Bayesian Computation could use clonal diversity to estimate the age of a clone depending on the size of the sample, the number of independent samples and the number of markers. We then applied this approach to our particular dataset and showed that the relative ages of varieties could be estimated, and that each variety could be ranked by age. We give a first estimation of clone age in an approximate Bayesian framework. However the precise estimation of clone age depends on the precision of the mutation rate. We provide useful information on agrobiodiversity dynamics and suggest recurrent creation of varietal diversity in a clonally propagated crop.

  19. An Improved Method for Estimating Water-Mass Ventilation Age from Radiocarbon Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devries, T. J.; Primeau, F. W.

    2009-12-01

    Paleoceanographic data can help to constrain the state of the past ocean circulation. One critical quantity that can be constrained by paleoceanographic data is the ventilation age, which measures the vigor of the ocean circulation. Paleoceanographers often use radiocarbon data to estimate paleo-ventilation ages by calculating either the benthic-planktonic (B-P) age difference, or the so-called “projection” age. However, recent studies have shown that neither of these calculations yield correct estimates of ventilation age, due to fluctuations in atmospheric radiocarbon content and mixing processes in the ocean. Here we propose a new method for more accurately inferring paleo-ventilation ages based on radiocarbon data. Our method makes use of a model that uses parameterized transfer functions to simulate the effects of circulation and mixing in the ocean. We show how this model can be used in a Bayesian framework to infer a ventilation age from a paired radiocarbon- and calendar-age measurement. The Bayesian framework allows us to quantify the uncertainty in the inferred ventilation age due to uncertainty in the data, as well as uncertainty in the assumptions made in the model itself. We applied this framework to previously published radiocarbon data from the deep North Pacific spanning 10 000 to 20 000 years before present. Ventilation ages inferred using our method are significantly different from the B-P ages or projection ages calculated from the same data. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the uncertainty of the ventilation ages is on the order of 400-500 years, and that the main sources of uncertainty are uncertainty in the age of surface source waters and in the true calendar age of the radiocarbon data. Our results do not show a clear change in the ventilation age of deep North Pacific waters during the last deglaciation.

  20. The influence of body size on adult skeletal age estimation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merritt, Catherine E

    2015-01-01

    Accurate age estimations are essential to archaeological and forensic analyses. However, reliability for adult skeletal age estimations is poor, especially for individuals over the age of 40 years. This is the first study to show that body size influences skeletal age estimation. The İşcan et al., Lovejoy et al., Buckberry and Chamberlain, and Suchey-Brooks age methods were tested on 764 adult skeletons from the Hamann-Todd and William Bass Collections. Statures ranged from 1.30 to 1.93 m and body masses ranged from 24.0 to 99.8 kg. Transition analysis was used to evaluate the differences in the age estimations. For all four methods, the smallest individuals have the lowest ages at transition and the largest individuals have the highest ages at transition. Short and light individuals are consistently underaged, while tall and heavy individuals are consistently overaged. When femoral length and femoral head diameter are compared with the log-age model, results show the same trend as the known stature and body mass measurements. The skeletal remains of underweight individuals have fewer age markers while those of obese individuals have increased surface degeneration and osteophytic lipping. Tissue type and mechanical loading have been shown to affect bone turnover rates, and may explain the differing patterns of skeletal aging. From an archaeological perspective, the underaging of light, short individuals suggests the need to revisit the current research consensus on the young mortality rates of past populations. From a forensic perspective, understanding the influence of body size will impact efforts to identify victims of mass disasters, genocides, and homicides. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Age and gender estimation using Region-SIFT and multi-layered SVM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyunduk; Lee, Sang-Heon; Sohn, Myoung-Kyu; Hwang, Byunghun

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we propose an age and gender estimation framework using the region-SIFT feature and multi-layered SVM classifier. The suggested framework entails three processes. The first step is landmark based face alignment. The second step is the feature extraction step. In this step, we introduce the region-SIFT feature extraction method based on facial landmarks. First, we define sub-regions of the face. We then extract SIFT features from each sub-region. In order to reduce the dimensions of features we employ a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). Finally, we classify age and gender using a multi-layered Support Vector Machines (SVM) for efficient classification. Rather than performing gender estimation and age estimation independently, the use of the multi-layered SVM can improve the classification rate by constructing a classifier that estimate the age according to gender. Moreover, we collect a dataset of face images, called by DGIST_C, from the internet. A performance evaluation of proposed method was performed with the FERET database, CACD database, and DGIST_C database. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach classifies age and performs gender estimation very efficiently and accurately.

  2. Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Age Using Synoptic Surveys of Environmental Tracers in Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, W. P.

    2017-12-01

    A model which simulates tracer concentration in surface water as a function the age distribution of groundwater discharge is used to characterize groundwater flow systems at a variety of spatial scales. We develop the theory behind the model and demonstrate its application in several groundwater systems of local to regional scale. A 1-D stream transport model, which includes: advection, dispersion, gas exchange, first-order decay and groundwater inflow is coupled a lumped parameter model that calculates the concentration of environmental tracers in discharging groundwater as a function of the groundwater residence time distribution. The lumped parameters, which describe the residence time distribution, are allowed to vary spatially, and multiple environmental tracers can be simulated. This model allows us to calculate the longitudinal profile of tracer concentration in streams as a function of the spatially variable groundwater age distribution. By fitting model results to observations of stream chemistry and discharge, we can then estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater age. The volume of groundwater discharge to streams can be estimated using a subset of environmental tracers, applied tracers, synoptic stream gauging or other methods, and the age of groundwater then estimated using the previously calculated groundwater discharge and observed environmental tracer concentrations. Synoptic surveys of SF6, CFC's, 3H and 222Rn, along with measured stream discharge are used to estimate the groundwater inflow distribution and mean age for regional scale surveys of the Berland River in west-central Alberta. We find that groundwater entering the Berland has observable age, and that the age estimated using our stream survey is of similar order to limited samples from groundwater wells in the region. Our results show that the stream can be used as an easily accessible location to constrain the regional scale spatial distribution of groundwater age.

  3. Third molar mineralization in relation to chronologic age estimation of the Han in central southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ying; Geng, Kun; Chu, Yanhao; Xu, Mindi; Zha, Lagabaiyila

    2018-03-03

    The purpose of this study is to provide a forensic reference data about estimating chronologic age by evaluating the third molar mineralization of Han in central southern China. The mineralization degree of third molars was assessed by Demirjian's classification with modification for 2519 digital orthopantomograms (1190 males, 1329 females; age 8-23 years). The mean ages of the initial mineralization and the crown completion of third molars were around 9.66 and 13.88 years old in males and 9.52 and 14.09 years old in females. The minimum ages of apical closure were around 16 years in both sexes. Twenty-eight at stage C and stage G and 38 and 48 at stage F occurred earlier in males than in females. There was no significant difference between maxillary and mandibular teeth in males and females except that stage C in males. Two formulas were devised to estimate age based on mineralization stages and sexes. In Hunan Province, the person will probably be over age 14, when a third molar reaches the stage G. The results of the study could provide reference for age estimation in forensic cases and clinical dentistry.

  4. Physiological frailty index (PFI): quantitative in-life estimate of individual biological age in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoch, Marina P; Wrobel, Michelle; Kuropatwinski, Karen K; Gitlin, Ilya; Leonova, Katerina I; Toshkov, Ilia; Gleiberman, Anatoli S; Hutson, Alan D; Chernova, Olga B; Gudkov, Andrei V

    2017-03-19

    The development of healthspan-extending pharmaceuticals requires quantitative estimation of age-related progressive physiological decline. In humans, individual health status can be quantitatively assessed by means of a frailty index (FI), a parameter which reflects the scale of accumulation of age-related deficits. However, adaptation of this methodology to animal models is a challenging task since it includes multiple subjective parameters. Here we report a development of a quantitative non-invasive procedure to estimate biological age of an individual animal by creating physiological frailty index (PFI). We demonstrated the dynamics of PFI increase during chronological aging of male and female NIH Swiss mice. We also demonstrated acceleration of growth of PFI in animals placed on a high fat diet, reflecting aging acceleration by obesity and provide a tool for its quantitative assessment. Additionally, we showed that PFI could reveal anti-aging effect of mTOR inhibitor rapatar (bioavailable formulation of rapamycin) prior to registration of its effects on longevity. PFI revealed substantial sex-related differences in normal chronological aging and in the efficacy of detrimental (high fat diet) or beneficial (rapatar) aging modulatory factors. Together, these data introduce PFI as a reliable, non-invasive, quantitative tool suitable for testing potential anti-aging pharmaceuticals in pre-clinical studies.

  5. Infant bone age estimation based on fibular shaft length: model development and clinical validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsai, Andy; Stamoulis, Catherine; Bixby, Sarah D.; Breen, Micheal A.; Connolly, Susan A.; Kleinman, Paul K.

    2016-01-01

    Bone age in infants (<1 year old) is generally estimated using hand/wrist or knee radiographs, or by counting ossification centers. The accuracy and reproducibility of these techniques are largely unknown. To develop and validate an infant bone age estimation technique using fibular shaft length and compare it to conventional methods. We retrospectively reviewed negative skeletal surveys of 247 term-born low-risk-of-abuse infants (no persistent child protection team concerns) from July 2005 to February 2013, and randomized them into two datasets: (1) model development (n = 123) and (2) model testing (n = 124). Three pediatric radiologists measured all fibular shaft lengths. An ordinary linear regression model was fitted to dataset 1, and the model was evaluated using dataset 2. Readers also estimated infant bone ages in dataset 2 using (1) the hemiskeleton method of Sontag, (2) the hemiskeleton method of Elgenmark, (3) the hand/wrist atlas of Greulich and Pyle, and (4) the knee atlas of Pyle and Hoerr. For validation, we selected lower-extremity radiographs of 114 normal infants with no suspicion of abuse. Readers measured the fibulas and also estimated bone ages using the knee atlas. Bone age estimates from the proposed method were compared to the other methods. The proposed method outperformed all other methods in accuracy and reproducibility. Its accuracy was similar for the testing and validating datasets, with root-mean-square error of 36 days and 37 days; mean absolute error of 28 days and 31 days; and error variability of 22 days and 20 days, respectively. This study provides strong support for an infant bone age estimation technique based on fibular shaft length as a more accurate alternative to conventional methods. (orig.)

  6. Infant bone age estimation based on fibular shaft length: model development and clinical validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsai, Andy; Stamoulis, Catherine; Bixby, Sarah D.; Breen, Micheal A.; Connolly, Susan A.; Kleinman, Paul K. [Boston Children' s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Bone age in infants (<1 year old) is generally estimated using hand/wrist or knee radiographs, or by counting ossification centers. The accuracy and reproducibility of these techniques are largely unknown. To develop and validate an infant bone age estimation technique using fibular shaft length and compare it to conventional methods. We retrospectively reviewed negative skeletal surveys of 247 term-born low-risk-of-abuse infants (no persistent child protection team concerns) from July 2005 to February 2013, and randomized them into two datasets: (1) model development (n = 123) and (2) model testing (n = 124). Three pediatric radiologists measured all fibular shaft lengths. An ordinary linear regression model was fitted to dataset 1, and the model was evaluated using dataset 2. Readers also estimated infant bone ages in dataset 2 using (1) the hemiskeleton method of Sontag, (2) the hemiskeleton method of Elgenmark, (3) the hand/wrist atlas of Greulich and Pyle, and (4) the knee atlas of Pyle and Hoerr. For validation, we selected lower-extremity radiographs of 114 normal infants with no suspicion of abuse. Readers measured the fibulas and also estimated bone ages using the knee atlas. Bone age estimates from the proposed method were compared to the other methods. The proposed method outperformed all other methods in accuracy and reproducibility. Its accuracy was similar for the testing and validating datasets, with root-mean-square error of 36 days and 37 days; mean absolute error of 28 days and 31 days; and error variability of 22 days and 20 days, respectively. This study provides strong support for an infant bone age estimation technique based on fibular shaft length as a more accurate alternative to conventional methods. (orig.)

  7. Estimated inventory of plutonium and uranium radionuclides for vegetation in aged fallout areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romney, E.M.; Wallace, A.; Kinnear, J.; Gilbert, R.O.

    1977-01-01

    Data are presented pertinent to the contamination of vegetation by plutonium and other radionuclides in aged fallout areas on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the Tonopah Test Range (TTR). The standing biomass of vegetation estimated by nondestructive dimensional methods varied from about 200 to 600 g/m 2 for the different fallout areas. Estimated inventories of 238 Pu, 239 Pu, 240 Pu, and 235 U in plants and their biological effects are discussed

  8. An examination of healthy aging across a conceptual continuum: prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Sara J; Jette, Alan M; Connell, Cathleen M

    2012-06-01

    Although the notion of healthy aging has gained wide acceptance in gerontology, measuring the phenomenon is challenging. Guided by a prominent conceptualization of healthy aging, we examined how shifting from a more to less stringent definition of healthy aging influences prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity. Data are from adults aged 65 years and older who participated in the Health and Retirement Study. We examined four operational definitions of healthy aging. For each, we calculated prevalence estimates and examined the odds of healthy aging by age, education, gender, and race-ethnicity in 2006. We also examined the association between healthy aging and both self-rated health and death. Across definitions, the prevalence of healthy aging ranged from 3.3% to 35.5%. For all definitions, those classified as experiencing healthy aging had lower odds of fair or poor self-rated health and death over an 8-year period. The odds of being classified as "healthy" were lower among those of advanced age, those with less education, and women than for their corresponding counterparts across all definitions. Moving across the conceptual continuum--from a more to less rigid definition of healthy aging--markedly increases the measured prevalence of healthy aging. Importantly, results suggest that all examined definitions identified a subgroup of older adults who had substantially lower odds of reporting fair or poor health and dying over an 8-year period, providing evidence of the validity of our definitions. Conceptualizations that emphasize symptomatic disease and functional health may be particularly useful for public health purposes.

  9. Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

    2015-05-01

    The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

  10. Heterogeneous Rates of Molecular Evolution and Diversification Could Explain the Triassic Age Estimate for Angiosperms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C; Crane, Peter; Donoghue, Michael J

    2015-09-01

    Dating analyses based on molecular data imply that crown angiosperms existed in the Triassic, long before their undisputed appearance in the fossil record in the Early Cretaceous. Following a re-analysis of the age of angiosperms using updated sequences and fossil calibrations, we use a series of simulations to explore the possibility that the older age estimates are a consequence of (i) major shifts in the rate of sequence evolution near the base of the angiosperms and/or (ii) the representative taxon sampling strategy employed in such studies. We show that both of these factors do tend to yield substantially older age estimates. These analyses do not prove that younger age estimates based on the fossil record are correct, but they do suggest caution in accepting the older age estimates obtained using current relaxed-clock methods. Although we have focused here on the angiosperms, we suspect that these results will shed light on dating discrepancies in other major clades. ©The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Estimated exposures to perfluorinated compounds in infancy predict attenuated vaccine antibody concentrations at age 5-years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grandjean, Philippe; Heilmann, Carsten; Weihe, Pal

    2017-01-01

    Perfluorinated alkylate substances (PFASs) are highly persistent and may cause immunotoxic effects. PFAS-associated attenuated antibody responses to childhood vaccines may be affected by PFAS exposures during infancy, where breastfeeding adds to PFAS exposures. Of 490 members of a Faroese birth...... cohort, 275 and 349 participated in clinical examinations and provided blood samples at ages 18 months and 5 years. PFAS concentrations were measured at birth and at the clinical examinations. Using information on duration of breastfeeding, serum-PFAS concentration profiles during infancy were estimated......, with decreases by up to about 20% for each two-fold higher exposure, while associations for serum concentrations at ages 18 months and 5 years were weaker. Modeling of serum-PFAS concentration showed levels for age 18 months that were similar to those measured. Concentrations estimated for ages 3 and 6 months...

  12. Raman Microspectrometry: An Alternative Method of Age Estimation from Dentin and Cementum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karuna Kumari

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Raman spectroscopy is simple, quick, sensitive and non destructive form of tissue examination that provides vital data about the structure, molecular composition and interactions within a sample. The human hard tissues like teeth and bone are able to resist decay for long even after other tissues are lost, thus have valuable forensic importance. Aim: To ascertain the known age of the teeth by analysing dentin and cementum using Raman microspectrometry and assess the accuracy of age estimation by comparison of dentin with cementum. Materials and Methods: The sound permanent extracted tooth specimens (40 of age ranging between 12-74 years were collected and sectioned longitudinally and different dentinal and cemental areas were analysed by Raman microspectrometry. The spectra of dentin and cementum were used as predictors of age estimation. For each sample, ratios were obtained for dentin and cementum areas, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient was calculated. Ratios, which had a correlation coefficient greater than 0.40 were used for further statistical analysis. This led to selection of ratios only for dentin areas, and it allowed us to develop a regression formula. Partial Least Square (PLS regression method was used for computing our model. Results: A significant correlation was observed between the actual chronological age and predicted age of the individual using dentinal areas of the tooth. A closest to the estimated result was achieved, with an error of three years between predicted and actual chorological age. Conclusion: Raman microspectrometry may be considered as an alternative to the conventional method of age estimation and contribute to the identification of individuals.

  13. Application of X-rays to dental age estimation in medico-legal practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorota Lorkiewicz-Muszyńska

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study: The paper addresses the use of dental age assessment methods based on radiographs in medico-legal practice. Different cases of practical application of the methods are presented including identification of human remains, dental age assessment in a living person and one archaeological case. Material and methods : The study material consisted of cases involving dental age assessment performed in the Department of Forensic Medicine, Poznan University of Medical Sciences in Poznan. Depending on the preliminary assessment of age, the Liversidge or the Kvaal et al. methods were applied. Dental age was estimated on the basis of available pantomograms. In the case of the living person, it was a radiograph supplied for expert evaluation. In the other cases, dental computed tomography was performed. Results : Dental age was successfully estimated in all of the cases. Various methods based on the analysis of X-ray images were applied. Dental age was shown to be correlated with skeletal age. Conclusions : The methods based on radiographs were demonstrated to be useful, and the results they yield are fully correlated with results of anthropological analyses.

  14. Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

    2015-01-01

    Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

  15. Forensic individual age estimation with DNA: From initial approaches to methylation tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire-Aradas, A; Phillips, C; Lareu, M V

    2017-07-01

    Individual age estimation is a key factor in forensic science analysis that can provide very useful information applicable to criminal, legal, and anthropological investigations. Forensic age inference was initially based on morphological inspection or radiography and only later began to adopt molecular approaches. However, a lack of accuracy or technical problems hampered the introduction of these DNA-based methodologies in casework analysis. A turning point occurred when the epigenetic signature of DNA methylation was observed to gradually change during an individual´s lifespan. In the last four years, the number of publications reporting DNA methylation age-correlated changes has gradually risen and the forensic community now has a range of age methylation tests applicable to forensic casework. Most forensic age predictor models have been developed based on blood DNA samples, but additional tissues are now also being explored. This review assesses the most widely adopted genes harboring methylation sites, detection technologies, statistical age-predictive analyses, and potential causes of variation in age estimates. Despite the need for further work to improve predictive accuracy and establishing a broader range of tissues for which tests can analyze the most appropriate methylation sites, several forensic age predictors have now been reported that provide consistency in their prediction accuracies (predictive error of ±4 years); this makes them compelling tools with the potential to contribute key information to help guide criminal investigations. Copyright © 2017 Central Police University.

  16. A Novel Method for Age Estimation in Solar-Type Stars Through GALEX FUV Magnitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Kelly; Subramonian, Arjun; Smith, Graeme; Shouru Shieh

    2018-01-01

    Utilizing an inverse association known to exist between Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) far ultraviolet (FUV) magnitudes and the chromospheric activity of F, G, and K dwarfs, we explored a method of age estimation in solar-type stars through GALEX FUV magnitudes. Sample solar-type star data were collected from refereed publications and filtered by B-V and absolute visual magnitude to ensure similarities in temperature and luminosity to the Sun. We determined FUV-B and calculated a residual index Q for all the stars, using the temperature-induced upper bound on FUV-B as the fiducial. Plotting current age estimates for the stars against Q, we discovered a strong and significant association between the variables. By applying a log-linear transformation to the data to produce a strong correlation between Q and loge Age, we confirmed the association between Q and age to be exponential. Thus, least-squares regression was used to generate an exponential model relating Q to age in solar-type stars, which can be used by astronomers. The Q-method of stellar age estimation is simple and more efficient than existing spectroscopic methods and has applications to galactic archaeology and stellar chemical composition analysis.

  17. Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Amitha J; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K P; Manaktala, Nidhi

    2015-01-01

    The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R (2) varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development.

  18. Estimating a child's age from an image using whole body proportions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Teghan; Henneberg, Maciej

    2017-09-01

    The use and distribution of child pornography is an increasing problem. Forensic anthropologists are often asked to estimate a child's age from a photograph. Previous studies have attempted to estimate the age of children from photographs using ratios of the face. Here, we propose to include body measurement ratios into age estimates. A total of 1603 boys and 1833 girls aged 5-16 years were measured over a 10-year period. They are 'Cape Coloured' children from South Africa. Their age was regressed on ratios derived from anthropometric measurements of the head as well as the body. Multiple regression equations including four ratios for each sex (head height to shoulder and hip width, knee width, leg length and trunk length) have a standard error of 1.6-1.7 years. The error is of the same order as variation of differences between biological and chronological ages of the children. Thus, the error cannot be minimised any further as it is a direct reflection of a naturally occurring phenomenon.

  19. K-Ar age estimate for the KBS Tuff, East Turkana, Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDougall, I.; Maier, R.; Sutherland-Hawkes, P.; Gleadow, A.J.W.

    1980-01-01

    Stone tools and numerous vertebrate fossils including hominids, have been found in close stratigraphic proximity to the KBS Tuff, whose age has been the subject of much debate. Concordant K-Ar ages, averaging 1.89 +- 0.01 Myr, are reported on anorthoclase phenocrysts from 13 pumice clasts collected from within the KBS Tuff or its correlatives. It is believed that this age is the best estimate currently available for the time of formation of this important marker horizon within the East Turkana Basin. (author)

  20. Estimation of sex and age of 'virtual skeletons'-a feasibility study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grabherr, Silke [University Hospital of Lausanne, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Lausanne (Switzerland)]|[University of Bern, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Bern (Switzerland)]|[University Hospital of Lausanne, Service of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Lausanne (Switzerland); Cooper, Christine; Ulrich-Bochsler, Susi [University of Bern, Institute for the History of Medicine, Historical Anthropology, Bern (Switzerland); Uldin, Tanya [Service of Osteo-Archaeology, Aesch (Switzerland); Ross, Steffen; Oesterhelweg, Lars; Bolliger, Stephan; Thali, Michael J. [University of Bern, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Bern (Switzerland); Christe, Andreas [University of Bern, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Bern (Switzerland)]|[University of Bern, Institute of Diagnostic Radiology, Bern (Switzerland); Schnyder, Pierre [University Hospital of Lausanne, Service of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Lausanne (Switzerland); Mangin, Patrice [University Hospital of Lausanne, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2009-02-15

    This article presents a feasibility study with the objective of investigating the potential of multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) to estimate the bone age and sex of deceased persons. To obtain virtual skeletons, the bodies of 22 deceased persons with known age at death were scanned by MDCT using a special protocol that consisted of high-resolution imaging of the skull, shoulder girdle (including the upper half of the humeri), the symphysis pubis and the upper halves of the femora. Bone and soft-tissue reconstructions were performed in two and three dimensions. The resulting data were investigated by three anthropologists with different professional experience. Sex was determined by investigating three-dimensional models of the skull and pelvis. As a basic orientation for the age estimation, the complex method according to Nemeskeri and co-workers was applied. The final estimation was effected using additional parameters like the state of dentition, degeneration of the spine, etc., which where chosen individually by the three observers according to their experience. The results of the study show that the estimation of sex and age is possible by the use of MDCT. Virtual skeletons present an ideal collection for anthropological studies, because they are obtained in a non-invasive way and can be investigated ad infinitum. (orig.)

  1. Identification and age estimation of blood stains on colored backgrounds by near infrared spectroscopy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelman, Gerda; Manti, Vicky; van Ruth, Saskia M.; van Leeuwen, Ton; Aalders, Maurice

    2012-01-01

    Non-destructive identification and subsequent age estimation of blood stains are significant steps in forensic casework. The latter can provide important information on the temporal aspects of a crime. As previously shown, visible spectroscopy of blood stains on white backgrounds can successfully be

  2. Estimation of sex and age of ''virtual skeletons''-a feasibility study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grabherr, Silke; Cooper, Christine; Ulrich-Bochsler, Susi; Uldin, Tanya; Ross, Steffen; Oesterhelweg, Lars; Bolliger, Stephan; Thali, Michael J.; Christe, Andreas; Schnyder, Pierre; Mangin, Patrice

    2009-01-01

    This article presents a feasibility study with the objective of investigating the potential of multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) to estimate the bone age and sex of deceased persons. To obtain virtual skeletons, the bodies of 22 deceased persons with known age at death were scanned by MDCT using a special protocol that consisted of high-resolution imaging of the skull, shoulder girdle (including the upper half of the humeri), the symphysis pubis and the upper halves of the femora. Bone and soft-tissue reconstructions were performed in two and three dimensions. The resulting data were investigated by three anthropologists with different professional experience. Sex was determined by investigating three-dimensional models of the skull and pelvis. As a basic orientation for the age estimation, the complex method according to Nemeskeri and co-workers was applied. The final estimation was effected using additional parameters like the state of dentition, degeneration of the spine, etc., which where chosen individually by the three observers according to their experience. The results of the study show that the estimation of sex and age is possible by the use of MDCT. Virtual skeletons present an ideal collection for anthropological studies, because they are obtained in a non-invasive way and can be investigated ad infinitum. (orig.)

  3. Forensic age estimation from the clavicle using 1.0 T MRI—Preliminary results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sara Tangmose; Jensen, Karl Erik; Villa, Chiara

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: As forensic age estimations in the living are performed without medical indication, there is a need for the development of non-ionizing methods. This study investigates the use of 1.0T MRI to visualize the ossification status of the medial end of the clavicle. MATERIAL AND METHODS: T2...

  4. Learning-based encoding with soft assignment for age estimation under unconstrained imaging conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alnajar, F.; Shan, C.; Gevers, T.; Geusebroek, J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we propose to adopt a learning-based encoding method for age estimation under unconstrained imaging conditions. A similar approach [Cao et al., 2010] is applied to face recognition in real-life face images. However, the feature vectors are encoded in hard manner i.e. each feature

  5. Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, Natalie A.; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C.; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J.; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E.; Deary, Ian J.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.

    2013-01-01

    Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. PMID:23850342

  6. Estimation of age in the living: in matters civil and criminal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggrawal, Anil

    2009-05-11

    Estimation of age is one of the main tasks of a forensic practitioner, especially in third world countries, where many births take place in rural settings without the benefit of the expert supervision of a trained obstetrician. Such births are poorly recorded or more often not recorded at all in terms of exact dates. In many other cases, records are fraudulently falsified for some gain, e.g. to get government jobs or pensions. Developed countries, where ordinarily the birth records are meticulously maintained, are not immune to this problem either. Estimation of the age of living individuals may be needed here for refugees or other persons who arrive without acceptable identification papers. A wide variety of methods are used by the forensic clinician to assess the age of the individual in such cases. This paper discusses and evaluates the most common methods used in India, although the methods can be effectively utilized by medico-legal professionals anywhere in the world.

  7. Age estimation by an analysis of spheno-occipital synchondrosis using cone-beam computed tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinanoglu, Alper; Kocasarac, Husniye Demirturk; Noujeim, Marcel

    2016-01-01

    The spheno-occipital synchondrosis has a relatively late ossification in comparison with other cranial base synchondroses, which makes it a point of interest for forensic age determination studies. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the reliability of spheno-occipital synchondrosis development in age determination in a Turkish population and to evaluate the reproducibility and reliability of cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) in an evaluation of the fusion stages of spheno-occipital synchondrosis. CBCT mid-sagittal images of 238 (90 males and 148 females) patients between the ages of 7 and 25, with a mean age of 15.45±0.26 and 16.43±0.37, respectively, were examined by three Oral and Maxillofacial Radiologists who evaluated the degree of synchondrosis fusion using a four-stage system. A reevaluation of 50 cases was conducted for intraobserver assessment. Multiple statistical analyses were used to assess the correlation between age and the fusion stage, to compare gender and age according to stages, and to evaluate the inter- and intraobserver agreement. The mean ages for complete fusion (Stage 3) were 18 and 20 for females and males, respectively. The interobserver agreement ranged between substantial and perfect, while the intraobserver agreement was substantial for all three observers. Based on these results, CBCT, when available, might be the method of choice for age estimation using the spheno-occipital synchondrosis fusion stages. Evaluating spheno-occipital synchondrosis has a value for age estimation around the age of 18 years, which affects the legal decisions in Turkey. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

    2014-01-01

    The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information. 

  9. Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Gallidabino, Matteo; Weyermann, Céline; Taroni, Franco

    2016-03-01

    Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

  10. Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. Objectives: The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). Materials and Methods: A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. Conclusion: The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation. PMID:25709325

  11. MAGNETO-CONVECTION AND LITHIUM AGE ESTIMATES OF THE β PICTORIS MOVING GROUP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macdonald, J.; Mullan, D. J.

    2010-01-01

    Although the means of the ages of stars in young groups determined from Li depletion often agree with mean ages determined from Hertzsprung-Russell (H-R) diagram isochrones, there are often statistically significant differences in the ages of individual stars determined by the two methods. We find that inclusion of the effects of inhibition of convection due to the presence of magnetic fields leads to consistent ages for the individual stars. We illustrate how age consistency arises by applying our results to the β Pictoris moving group (BPMG). We find that, although magnetic inhibition of convection leads to increased ages from the H-R diagram isochrones for all stars, Li ages are decreased for fully convective M stars and increased for stars with radiative cores. Our consistent age determination for BPMG of 40 Myr is larger than previous determinations by a factor of about two. We have also considered models in which the mixing length ratio is adjusted to give consistent ages. We find that our magneto-convection models, which give quantitative estimates of magnetic field strength, provide a viable alternative to models in which the effects of magnetic fields (and other processes) are accounted for by reducing the mixing length ratio.

  12. Normative perceptual estimates for 91 healthy subjects age 60-75

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilms, Inge Linda; Nielsen, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Visual perception serves as the basis for much of the higher level cognitive processing as well as human activity in general. Here we present normative estimates for the following components of visual perception: the visual perceptual threshold, the visual short-term memory capacity and the visual...... perceptual encoding/decoding speed (processing speed) of visual short-term memory based on an assessment of 91 healthy subjects aged 60-75. The estimates are presented at total sample level as well as at gender level. The estimates were modelled from input from a whole-report assessment based on A Theory...... speed of Visual Short-term Memory (VTSM) but not the capacity of VSTM nor the visual threshold. The estimates will be useful for future studies into the effects of various types of intervention and training on cognition in general and visual attention in particular....

  13. Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    2013-01-01

    The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

  14. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chopra, O.K.

    1991-06-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting the change in fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water rectors (LWRs) at 280--330 degrees C (535--625 degrees F). The fracture toughness J-R curve and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known mineral in formation. Fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel is estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. The extent of thermal embrittlement is characterized by the room-temperature ''normalized'' Charpy-impact energy. A correlation for the extent of embrittlement at ''saturation,'' i.e., the minimum impact energy that would be achieved for the material after long-term aging, is given in terms of a material parameter, Φ, which is determined from the chemical composition. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained from correlations between room-temperature Charpy-impact energy and fracture toughness parameters. Fracture toughness as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which is determined from chemical composition. A common ''lower-bound'' J-R curve for cast stainless steels with unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given material specification, ferrite content, and temperature. Examples for estimating impact strength and fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are describes. 24 refs., 39 figs., 2 tabs

  15. Weight Estimation Tool for Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Limited-Resource Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralston, Mark E; Myatt, Mark A

    2016-01-01

    A simple, reliable anthropometric tool for rapid estimation of weight in children would be useful in limited-resource settings where current weight estimation tools are not uniformly reliable, nearly all global under-five mortality occurs, severe acute malnutrition is a significant contributor in approximately one-third of under-five mortality, and a weight scale may not be immediately available in emergencies to first-response providers. To determine the accuracy and precision of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and height as weight estimation tools in children under five years of age in low-to-middle income countries. This was a retrospective observational study. Data were collected in 560 nutritional surveys during 1992-2006 using a modified Expanded Program of Immunization two-stage cluster sample design. Locations with high prevalence of acute and chronic malnutrition. A total of 453,990 children met inclusion criteria (age 6-59 months; weight ≤ 25 kg; MUAC 80-200 mm) and exclusion criteria (bilateral pitting edema; biologically implausible weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) values). Weight was estimated using Broselow Tape, Hong Kong formula, and database MUAC alone, height alone, and height and MUAC combined. Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight, proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% and ± 10% of true weight, weighted Kappa statistic, and Bland-Altman bias were reported as measures of tool accuracy. Standard deviation of mean percentage difference and Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement were reported as measures of tool precision. Database height was a more accurate and precise predictor of weight compared to Broselow Tape 2007 [B], Broselow Tape 2011 [A], and MUAC. Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight was +0.49% (SD = 10.33%); proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 97.36% (95% CI 97.40%, 97.46%); and

  16. [Problems associated with age estimation of underage persons who appear in child pornography materials].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Łabecka, Marzena; Lorkiewicz-Muszyńska, Dorota; Jarzabek-Bielecka, Grazyna

    2011-01-01

    Among opinions issued by the Forensic Medicine Department, Medical Science University in Poznan, in the last six years, there are opinions concerning age estimation in child pornography materials. The issue subject to research is indicating persons under the age of 15 years in pornographic materials, since possession of pornographic materials featuring underage persons is considered a crime and is subject to article 202 of the Penal Code. The estimation of the age of teenagers based on secondary and tertiary sexual characteristics is increasingly more difficult and the available data in professional literature regarding the standard time of development differ among various authors of such studies. In the report, an attempt has been made at determining the agreement regarding different characteristics in the data included in the Tanner's scale, which has been modified to accommodate the research done on persons registered by electronic means. The modified scale, which up to now has been used in research of registered subjects in classified public prosecutors' materials, has been employed in children seen in a pediatric outpatient department. The goal has been a comparison of the outcome of the research to prove its usefulness so that in the future, the modified scale could be used as a research tool in estimation of age of persons appearing in pornography materials. medical forms of 205 children seen in a pediatric outpatient department, based on the scale created by the present authors us and later processed using Excel.

  17. Tooth coronal index: Key for age estimation on digital panoramic radiographs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ravleen Nagi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Assessment of age through teeth is one of the most reliable and simple method than skeletal remains, to calculate age of an individual. Objectives: The study was carried out with an aim to evaluate reliability of dental age assessment through tooth coronal index (TCI method. Materials and Methods: The digital panoramic radiographs of 100 subjects of Chhattisgarh aged 20–70 years were selected for the study. The measurements were performed on the JPEG images of selected panoramic radiographs by using Adobe Acrobat 7.0 professional software. The height of the crown, i.e., coronal height, and the height of the coronal pulp cavity, i.e., coronal pulp cavity height, of mandibular second premolars and first molars were measured in millimeter (mm and then TCI was calculated for each tooth. Actual age of a subject was compared with TCI of tooth and the acquired data were subjected to Pearson's correlation and unpaired t-tests. Results: Negative correlation was observed between the real age and TCI of mandibular first molar (r = −0.092, P = 0.365 and second premolar (r = −0.168, P = 0.096. Statistically significant difference was observed between real age and TCI for mandibular second premolar and first molar (P = 0.000 by unpaired t-test. Conclusion: TCI has the potential to estimate age of an individual on dental radiographs. It is simple, cost effective than histological methods and can be applied to both living and unknown dead.

  18. The biochemical estimation of age in Euphausiids: Laboratory calibration and field comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, H. R.; Ju, Se-J.; Son, S.-K.; Feinberg, L. R.; Shaw, C. T.; Peterson, W. T.

    2010-04-01

    Euphausiids play a key role in many marine ecosystems as a link between primary producers and top predators. Understanding their demographic (i.e. age) structure is an essential tool to assess growth and recruitment as well as to determine how changes in environmental conditions might alter their condition and distribution. Age determination of crustaceans cannot be accomplished using traditional approaches, and here we evaluate the potential for biochemical products of tissue metabolism (termed lipofuscins) to determine the demographic structure of euphausiids in field collections . Lipofuscin was extracted from krill neural tissues (eye and eye-stalk), quantified using fluorescent intensity and normalized to tissue protein content to allow comparisons across animal sizes. Multiple fluorescent components from krill were observed, with the major product having a maximum fluorescence at excitation of 355 nm and emission of 510 nm. Needed age calibration of lipofuscin accumulation in Euphausia pacifica was accomplished using known-age individuals hatched and reared in the laboratory for over one year. Lipofuscin content extracted from neural tissues of laboratory-reared animals was highly correlated with the chronological age of animals ( r=0.87). Calibrated with laboratory lipofuscin accumulation rates, field-collected sub-adult and adult E. pacifica in the Northeast Pacific were estimated to be older than 100 days and younger than 1year. Comparative data for the Antarctic krill, E. superba showed much higher lipofuscin values suggesting a much longer lifespan than the more temperate species, E. pacifica. These regional comparisons suggest that biochemical indices allow a practical approach to estimate population age structure of diverse populations, and combined with other measurements can provide estimates of vital rates (i.e. longevity, mortality, growth) for krill populations in dynamic environments.

  19. COMPARISON OF AGE ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS HARD PARTS FOR REDFIN PERCH, Percafluviatilis, IN TASMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irwan Jatmiko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Whole otoliths, sectioned otoliths, scales and vertebrae were used to select the most suitable for age determination of redfin perch, Percafluviatilis. Redfin perch were sampled from Trevallyn Lake and Brushy Lagoon using fyke nets, gillnets, electrofishing and rod and line angling. Age estimates were assessed for comparison between readings and among structures. One-wayANOVA of readability scores highlighted that sectioned otolith was the most obvious compare to other hard parts. Sectioned otoliths also showed the highest (93.9% agreement between readings, followed by vertebrae (68.7, scales (38.8 and whole otoliths (29.9. Furthermore, there were no significantly different (p>0.05 between first and second readings from sectioned otolith and vertebrae but significantly different (p <0.05 to those from scales and whole otoliths. When sectioned otoliths’ ages were compared with other structures, vertebrae showed the highest (47.6% agreement to those followed by scales (25.2% and whole otoliths (20.4%. Age estimates from sectioned otoliths were significantly different (p<0.05 to the values obtained from vertebrae, scales and whole otoliths.This finding demonstrated that sectioned otoliths are the best hard part for age determination for redfin perch in Tasmania.

  20. U.S. Census Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for the United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2010-2015. U.S. Census Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for the United States. The estimates are based on the 2010 Census...

  1. On the possibilities of age estimation of iron ore minerals using the Moessbauer effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mbesherubusa, F.

    1980-01-01

    The age of geological iron are samples from regions with mainly oxidative conditions has been estimated, by the method of Moessbauer spectroscopy. In many cases the relative age of two samples could be determined unambigiously, due to the different Moessbauer data for Fe 2 + and Fe 3 + and the superparamagnetic behaviour of the iron oxide microcrystallites (up to about 200 A). This has been proved by three series of measurements with samples from three different climatic zones - Baja California, West-Australia, and Rhine Valley. (orig./HBR) [de

  2. Estimated inventory of plutonium and uranium radionuclides for vegetation in aged fallout areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romney, E.M.; Gilbert, R.O.; Wallace, A.; Kinnear, J.

    1976-02-01

    Data are presented on the contamination of vegetation by 239 Pu, 240 Pu, and other radionuclides in aged fallout areas on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the Tonopah Test Range (TTR). Comparisons of soil and vegetation inventory estimates indicate that the standing vegetation contributes an insignificant portion of the total amount of 239-240 Pu present in these aged fallout areas. The amounts of Pu available for vegetation-transport to animals grazing on-site would appear to be relatively small in comparison to the total amounts deposited upon soil. Findings indicate that most of the contaminant found on vegetation probably is attributable to resuspendable materials

  3. A combined method to estimate the appropriate age value of closed uraniun-lead system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malakhov, S.S.

    1982-01-01

    A new method is proposed for obtaining the appropriate age values of closed uranium-lead systems taking into account total indeependent information delivered as a result of spectral and isotope-lead analyses. A simple mathematical apparatus which permits to perform a geochronological interpretation of samples using miniature computers is considered and suggested. A simple estimation formula for determining the age of uranium-lead systems under the assumption of model development of isotope ratios of ordinary lead is derived and tested basing on the facts

  4. Accuracy of the estimation of dental age in comparison with chronological age in a Spanish sample of 2641 living subjects using the Demirjian and Nolla methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, María; Ata-Ali, Javier

    2017-01-01

    Age estimation is an important procedure in forensic medicine and is carried out for a number of reasons. For living persons, age estimation is performed in order to assess whether a child has attained the age of criminal responsibility, in scenarios involving rape, kidnapping or marriage, in premature births, adoption procedures, illegal immigration, pediatric endocrine diseases and orthodontic malocclusion, as well as in circumstances in which the birth certificate is not available or the records are suspect. According to data from the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees), the number of people seeking refugee status continued to increase in the last years, driven by the wars in Syria and Iraq, as well as by conflict and instability in Afghanistan, Eritrea and elsewhere. The objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of estimating dental age versus chronological age using the Nolla and Demirjian methods in a Spanish population. A final sample of 2641 panoramic X-rays corresponding to Spanish patients (1322 males and 1319 females) between 7-21 years of age was analyzed. Dental age was assessed using the Nolla and Demirjian methods, establishing comparisons with mean chronological age based on the Student t-test for paired samples, followed by the generation of a linear regression model. Both methods showed slight discrepancy between dental and chronological age. On examining the reproducibility of the Nolla and Demirjian methods, technical errors of 0.84% and 0.62%, respectively, were observed. On average, the Nolla method was found to estimate an age 0.213years younger than the chronological age, while the Demirjian method estimated an age 0.853years older than the chronological age. Linear combination of the mean Nolla and Demirjian estimates increased the predictive capacity to 99.2%. In conclusion the Nolla and Demirjian methods were found to be accurate in estimating chronological age from dental age in a Spanish population. The error

  5. Three-dimensional analysis of third molar development to estimate age of majority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez-Ruiz, Ana Belén; Treviño-Tijerina, María Concepción; González-Herrera, Lucas; Sánchez, Belén; González-Ramírez, Amanda Rocío; Valenzuela, Aurora

    2017-09-01

    Third molars are one of the few biological markers available for age estimation in undocumented juveniles close the legal age of majority, assuming an age of 18years as the most frequent legal demarcation between child and adult status. To obtain more accurate visualization and evaluation of third molar mineralization patterns from computed tomography images, a new software application, DentaVol©, was developed. Third molar mineralization according to qualitative (Demirjian's maturational stage) and quantitative parameters (third molar volume) of dental development was assessed in multi-slice helical computed tomography images of both maxillary arches displayed by DentaVol© from 135 individuals (62 females and 73 males) aged between 14 and 23years. Intra- and inter-observer agreement values were remarkably high for both evaluation procedures and for all third molars. A linear correlation between third molar mineralization and chronological age was found, with third molar maturity occurring earlier in males than in females. Assessment of dental development with both procedures, by using DentaVol© software, can be considered a good indicator of age of majority (18years or older) in all third molars. Our results indicated that virtual computed tomography imaging can be considered a valid alternative to orthopantomography for evaluations of third molar mineralization, and therefore a complementary tool for determining the age of majority. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimating Age-Dependent Extinction: Contrasting Evidence from Fossils and Phylogenies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, Oskar; Andermann, Tobias; Quental, Tiago B; Antonelli, Alexandre; Silvestro, Daniele

    2018-05-01

    The estimation of diversification rates is one of the most vividly debated topics in modern systematics, with considerable controversy surrounding the power of phylogenetic and fossil-based approaches in estimating extinction. Van Valen's seminal work from 1973 proposed the "Law of constant extinction," which states that the probability of extinction of taxa is not dependent on their age. This assumption of age-independent extinction has prevailed for decades with its assessment based on survivorship curves, which, however, do not directly account for the incompleteness of the fossil record, and have rarely been applied at the species level. Here, we present a Bayesian framework to estimate extinction rates from the fossil record accounting for age-dependent extinction (ADE). Our approach, unlike previous implementations, explicitly models unobserved species and accounts for the effects of fossil preservation on the observed longevity of sampled lineages. We assess the performance and robustness of our method through extensive simulations and apply it to a fossil data set of terrestrial Carnivora spanning the past 40 myr. We find strong evidence of ADE, as we detect the extinction rate to be highest in young species and declining with increasing species age. For comparison, we apply a recently developed analogous ADE model to a dated phylogeny of extant Carnivora. Although the phylogeny-based analysis also infers ADE, it indicates that the extinction rate, instead, increases with increasing taxon age. The estimated mean species longevity also differs substantially, with the fossil-based analyses estimating 2.0 myr, in contrast to 9.8 myr derived from the phylogeny-based inference. Scrutinizing these discrepancies, we find that both fossil and phylogeny-based ADE models are prone to high error rates when speciation and extinction rates increase or decrease through time. However, analyses of simulated and empirical data show that fossil-based inferences are more

  7. Stratigraphy, correlation, and age estimates for fossils from Area 123, Koobi Fora.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feibel, Craig S; Lepre, Christopher J; Quinn, Rhonda L

    2009-08-01

    Geological data from the Bura Hasuma region at Koobi Fora provide important constraints for estimating the ages of hominin fossils recovered there, including the cranium KNM-ER 1813. Strata of the upper Burgi, KBS, and Okote members in this part of Koobi Fora reflect three depositional regimes driven by changing paleogeography through time. The upper Burgi and lowermost KBS sequence in the southern Bura Hasuma region accumulated in a lacustrine to delta front setting, with highly localized depositional patterns, limiting the lateral extent of lithostratigraphic markers. Farther north, uppermost upper Burgi through KBS member strata document a fluctuating lake margin, with complex facies patterns. This interval is marked by laterally extensive lithostratigraphic markers, including molluscan packstones, beach sandstones, and stromatolite beds. The uppermost KBS and Okote members show a transition to dominantly fluvial character, with localized and discontinuous accumulation. An age model for the richly fossiliferous Area 123 sequence demonstrates the complexity of terrestrial accumulation patterns. Early lacustrine and delta front accumulation is marked by fairly continuous sedimentation, and high accumulation rates (up to ca. 91 cm/k.yr.). The fluctuating lake margin interval reflects lower sedimentation rates coupled with intervals of exposure, decreasing accumulation significantly (to ca. 13 cm/k.yr.). The capping fluvial interval is marked by significant erosion surfaces, breaks which may drop the overall accumulation rate even lower (ca. 0.3 cm/k.yr.). The data provided here establish a geological framework at odds with a recent proposal of ages considerably younger (by ca. 250 k.yr.) for many of the fossils from Area 123 and elsewhere. Tests of age models demonstrate that the younger ages are not possible. While minor refinements to age estimates for fossils are indicated by improved chronostratigraphic control, in the case of KNM-ER 1813, an age of younger

  8. Estimated exposures to perfluorinated compounds in infancy predict attenuated vaccine antibody concentrations at age 5-years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandjean, Philippe; Heilmann, Carsten; Weihe, Pal; Nielsen, Flemming; Mogensen, Ulla B; Timmermann, Amalie; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2017-12-01

    Perfluorinated alkylate substances (PFASs) are highly persistent and may cause immunotoxic effects. PFAS-associated attenuated antibody responses to childhood vaccines may be affected by PFAS exposures during infancy, where breastfeeding adds to PFAS exposures. Of 490 members of a Faroese birth cohort, 275 and 349 participated in clinical examinations and provided blood samples at ages 18 months and 5 years. PFAS concentrations were measured at birth and at the clinical examinations. Using information on duration of breastfeeding, serum-PFAS concentration profiles during infancy were estimated. As outcomes, serum concentrations of antibodies against tetanus and diphtheria vaccines were determined at age 5. Data from a previous cohort born eight years earlier were available for pooled analyses. Pre-natal exposure showed inverse associations with the antibody concentrations five years later, with decreases by up to about 20% for each two-fold higher exposure, while associations for serum concentrations at ages 18 months and 5 years were weaker. Modeling of serum-PFAS concentration showed levels for age 18 months that were similar to those measured. Concentrations estimated for ages 3 and 6 months showed the strongest inverse associations with antibody concentrations at age 5 years, particularly for tetanus. Joint analyses showed statistically significant decreases in tetanus antibody concentrations by 19-29% at age 5 for each doubling of the PFAS exposure in early infancy. These findings support the notion that the developing adaptive immune system is particularly vulnerable to immunotoxicity during infancy. This vulnerability appears to be the greatest during the first 6 months after birth, where PFAS exposures are affected by breast-feeding.

  9. Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Julia A; Boyd, Clint A

    2015-01-01

    Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used

  10. Estimated incidence of pertussis in people aged <50 years in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chi-Chang; Balderston McGuiness, Catherine; Krishnarajah, Girishanthy; Blanchette, Christopher M.; Wang, Yuanyuan; Sun, Kainan; Buck, Philip O.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The introduction of pertussis vaccination in the United States (US) in the 1940s has greatly reduced its burden. However, the incidence of pertussis is difficult to quantify, as many cases are not laboratory-confirmed or reported, particularly in adults. This study estimated pertussis incidence in a commercially insured US population aged pertussis or cough illness using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes, a commercial outpatient laboratory database for patients with a pertussis laboratory test, and the Centers for Disease Control influenza surveillance database. US national pertussis incidence was projected using 3 methods: (1) diagnosed pertussis, defined as a claim for pertussis (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3) during 2008–2013; (2) based on proxy pertussis predictive logistic regression models; (3) using the fraction of cough illness (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3, 786.2, 466.0, 466.1, 487.1) attributed to laboratory-confirmed pertussis, estimated by time series linear regression models. Method 1 gave a projected annual incidence of diagnosed pertussis of 9/100,000, which was highest in those aged pertussis of 649/100,000, approximately 58–93 times higher than method 1 depending on the year. These estimations, which are consistent with considerable underreporting of pertussis in people aged pertussis burden. PMID:27246119

  11. Differences between Estimation and Real Performance in School-Age Children: Fundamental Movement Skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Almeida

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Observations in studies of estimation compared to actual performance in motor skills revealed that children are not always accurate and have a tendency to overestimate the maximum distance at which an action can be performed. The relationship between estimated and real motor competences was analyzed for several tasks: standing long jump (SLJ, throwing and kicking, and walking backwards (WB on a balance beam. Children were asked to predict their maximum distance prior to performing those tasks. Participants were 303 children (160 boys, which were between 6 and 10 years of age (M=8.63, SD=1.16. Children’s estimations were compared with their real performance to determine their accuracy. Absolute error (|real performance − estimation| and error tendency, that is, the direction of the error (overestimation, accuracy, and underestimation bias, were calculated. Children had a tendency to overestimate their performance and were more conservative in the WB task, a noncommon action. In general, it is possible to conclude that children, in the studied age span, tend to overestimate their performance, particularly in familiar skills. This fact may be determinant to the development of their motor competences, since they are more likely to engage and persist in motor tasks, but it might also be a problem in terms of child safety because it could increase the occurrence of unintended injuries.

  12. Estimation of age-specific rates of reactivation and immune boosting of the varicella zoster virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Marinelli

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Studies into the impact of vaccination against the varicella zoster virus (VZV have increasingly focused on herpes zoster (HZ, which is believed to be increasing in vaccinated populations with decreasing infection pressure. This idea can be traced back to Hope-Simpson's hypothesis, in which a person's immune status determines the likelihood that he/she will develop HZ. Immunity decreases over time, and can be boosted by contact with a person experiencing varicella (exogenous boosting or by a reactivation attempt of the virus (endogenous boosting. Here we use transmission models to estimate age-specific rates of reactivation and immune boosting, exogenous as well as endogenous, using zoster incidence data from the Netherlands (2002–2011, n = 7026. The boosting and reactivation rates are estimated with splines, enabling these quantities to be optimally informed by the data. The analyses show that models with high levels of exogenous boosting and estimated or zero endogenous boosting, constant rate of loss of immunity, and reactivation rate increasing with age (to more than 5% per year in the elderly give the best fit to the data. Estimates of the rates of immune boosting and reactivation are strongly correlated. This has important implications as these parameters determine the fraction of the population with waned immunity. We conclude that independent evidence on rates of immune boosting and reactivation in persons with waned immunity are needed to robustly predict the impact of varicella vaccination on the incidence of HZ.

  13. Maintenance Management Support Systems for component aging estimation at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, Shunichi; Ando, Yasumasa; Morioka, Toshihiko; Okuzumi, Naoaki

    1991-01-01

    Maintenance Management Support Systems (MMSSs) for nuclear power plants have been developed using component aging estimation methods and decision tree analysis for maintenance planning. The former evaluates actual component reliability through statistical analysis on field maintenance data. The latter provides preventive maintenance (PM) planning guidance using heuristic expert knowledge and estimated reliability parameters. The following aspects have been investigated: (1) A systematic and effective method of managing components/parts design information and field maintenance data (2) A method for estimating component aging based on a statistical analysis of field maintenance data (3) A method for providing PM planning guidance using estimated component reliability/performance parameters and decision tree analysis. Based on these investigations, two MMSSs were developed. One deals with 'general maintenance data', which are common to all component types and are amenable to common data handling. The other system deals with 'specific maintenance data', which are specific to an individual component type. Both systems provide PM planning guidance for PM cycles propriety and the PM work priority. The function of these systems were verified using simulated maintenance data. (author)

  14. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  15. Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in lower premolars by orthopantomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameriere, Roberto; De Luca, Stefano; Alemán, Inmaculada; Ferrante, Luigi; Cingolani, Mariano

    2012-01-10

    Accurate age estimation has always been a problem for forensic scientists, and apposition of secondary dentine is often used as an indicator of age. Since 2004, in order to examine patterns of secondary dentine apposition, Cameriere et al. have been extensively studying the pulp/tooth area ratio of the canines by panoramic and peri-apical X-ray images. The main aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between age and age-related changes in the pulp/tooth area ratio in monoradicular teeth, with the exception of canines, by orthopantomography. A total of 606 orthopantomograms of Spanish white Caucasian patients (289 women and 317 men), aged between 18 and 75 years and coming from Bilbao and Granada (Spain), was analysed. Regression analysis of age of monoradicular teeth indicated that the lower premolars were the most closely correlated with age. An ANCOVA did not show significant differences between men and women. Multiple regression analysis, with age as dependent variable and pulp/tooth area ratio as predictor, yielded several formulae. R(2) ranged from 0.69 to 0.75 for a single lower premolar tooth and from 0.79 to 0.86 for multiple lower premolar teeth. Depending on the available number of premolar teeth, the mean of the absolute values of residual standard error, at 95% confidence interval, ranged between 4.34 and 6.02 years, showing that the pulp/tooth area ratio is a useful variable for assessing age with reasonable accuracy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Mineralization of mandibular third molars can estimate chronological age--Brazilian indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Fernando Toledo; Capelozza, Ana Lúcia Álvares; Lauris, José Roberto Pereira; de Bullen, Izabel Regina Fischer Rubira

    2012-06-10

    Forensic age estimation is an important element of anthropological research, as it produces one of the primary sources of data that researchers use to establish the identity of a person living or the identity of unknown bodily remains. The aim of this study was to determine if the chronology of third molar mineralization could be an accurate indicator of estimated age in a sample Brazilian population. If so, mineralization could determine the probability of an individual being 18 years or older. The study evaluated 407 panoramic radiographs of males and females from the past 5 years in order to assess the mineralization status of the mandibular third molars. The evaluation was carried out using an adaptation of Demirjian's system. The results indicated a strong correlation between chronological age and the mineralization of the mandibular third molars. The results indicated that modern Brazilian generation tends to demonstrate an earlier mandibular third molar mineralization than older Brazilian generation and people of other nationalities. Males reached developmental stages slightly earlier than females, but statistically significant differences between the sex were not found. The probability that an individual with third molar mineralization stage H had reached an age of 18 years or older was 96.8-98.6% for males and females, respectively. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimating brain age using high-resolution pattern recognition: Younger brains in long-term meditation practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luders, Eileen; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Gaser, Christian

    2016-07-01

    Normal aging is known to be accompanied by loss of brain substance. The present study was designed to examine whether the practice of meditation is associated with a reduced brain age. Specific focus was directed at age fifty and beyond, as mid-life is a time when aging processes are known to become more prominent. We applied a recently developed machine learning algorithm trained to identify anatomical correlates of age in the brain translating those into one single score: the BrainAGE index (in years). Using this validated approach based on high-dimensional pattern recognition, we re-analyzed a large sample of 50 long-term meditators and 50 control subjects estimating and comparing their brain ages. We observed that, at age fifty, brains of meditators were estimated to be 7.5years younger than those of controls. In addition, we examined if the brain age estimates change with increasing age. While brain age estimates varied only little in controls, significant changes were detected in meditators: for every additional year over fifty, meditators' brains were estimated to be an additional 1month and 22days younger than their chronological age. Altogether, these findings seem to suggest that meditation is beneficial for brain preservation, effectively protecting against age-related atrophy with a consistently slower rate of brain aging throughout life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  19. Third molar development: evaluation of nine tooth development registration techniques for age estimations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, Patrick W; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2013-03-01

    Multiple third molar development registration techniques exist. Therefore the aim of this study was to detect which third molar development registration technique was most promising to use as a tool for subadult age estimation. On a collection of 1199 panoramic radiographs the development of all present third molars was registered following nine different registration techniques [Gleiser, Hunt (GH); Haavikko (HV); Demirjian (DM); Raungpaka (RA); Gustafson, Koch (GK); Harris, Nortje (HN); Kullman (KU); Moorrees (MO); Cameriere (CA)]. Regression models with age as response and the third molar registration as predictor were developed for each registration technique separately. The MO technique disclosed highest R(2) (F 51%, M 45%) and lowest root mean squared error (F 3.42 years; M 3.67 years) values, but differences with other techniques were small in magnitude. The amount of stages utilized in the explored staging techniques slightly influenced the age predictions. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  20. Evaluation of third molar development in the estimation of chronological age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Caio Belém Rodrigues Barros; Figueiroa, José Natal; Dantas, Renata Moura Xavier; Kurita, Lúcio Mitsuo; Pontual, Andréa dos Anjos; Ramos-Perez, Flávia Maria de Moraes; Perez, Danyel Elias da Cruz; Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between chronological age and the degree of third molar mineralization by Demirjian's developmental stages (Demirjian et al., 1973) using panoramic radiography. From a total of 11.396 digital panoramic radiographs of patients from three oral radiology private clinics from the northeast region of Brazil, obtained from January to June 2009, 2097 radiographic images from patients aged between 6 and 22 years were selected. The images were analyzed individually by two obsevers using a 21-inch computer screen and Windows Picture and Fax Viewer. Reliability was achieved by intra- and interobserver evaluation, using the Kappa test. Chronological age, calcification stage, gender and third molar were interrelated using a multiple linear regression model, considering age as a response variable. There was reliability with Demirjian et al.'s developmental stage assesment, displaying a significant relationship between mineralization stages and patients' age (Page and the calcification stage taking gender and localization of the third molar into consideration. It is possible to estimate chronological age based on Demirjian's stage of a third molar, regardless of gender and location. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Estimating dose rates to organs as a function of age following internal exposure to radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Cristy, M.; Crawford-Brown, D.J.; Williams, L.R.

    1984-03-01

    The AGEDOS methodology allows estimates of dose rates, as a function of age, to radiosensitive organs and tissues in the human body at arbitrary times during or after internal exposure to radioactive material. Presently there are few, if any, radionuclides for which sufficient metabolic information is available to allow full use of all features of the methodology. The intention has been to construct the methodology so that optimal information can be gained from a mixture of the limited amount of age-dependent, nuclide-specific data and the generally plentiful age-dependent physiological data now available. Moreover, an effort has been made to design the methodology so that constantly accumulating metabolic information can be incorporated with minimal alterations in the AGEDOS computer code. Some preliminary analyses performed by the authors, using the AGEDOS code in conjunction with age-dependent risk factors developed from the A-bomb survivor data and other studies, has indicated that the doses and subsequent risks of eventually experiencing radiogenic cancers may vary substantially with age for some exposure scenarios and may be relatively invariant with age for other scenarios. We believe that the AGEDOS methodology provides a convenient and efficient means for performing the internal dosimetry

  2. Estimation of natural age of menopause in Iranian women: A meta-analysis study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdolreza Rajaeefard

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The mean age of menopause have been reported at the age of 51 in the world and regarding the increase in life expectancy in many countries more than a third of the life time of women i s in menopause period. The importance of menopause is due to its relationship with various diseases and quality of life. The present study was conducted to estimate the average natural age of menopause in women based on a meta-analysis study. Material and Methods: In a meta-analysis study on all the existing articles in the natural age o f menopause in Iran, 21 articles were selected based on inclusion criteria. Begg and Egger tests fo r publication bias and Cochrane test were used to determine the heterogeneity among samples. ???? estimate of mean calculated based on Random effect model in Stata11 software. Results: The publication bias assumption was rejected by Begg and Egger tests with significant value s equal to 0.174 and 0.446 respectively. There was a heterogeneity among samples (Q=4626.3, df=20 , P<0.001. So based on random effect model the mean age of menopause was calculated as 48.183 with 95 % CI=47.457-48.91. Conclusion: The average age of natural menopause in Iranian women is favorable to some places of Middle East, but is less compared with developed countries and the world mean. Because of the importance of this period in women, educational programs seem to be necessary.

  3. Estimating power capability of aged lithium-ion batteries in presence of communication delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridholm, Björn; Wik, Torsten; Kuusisto, Hannes; Klintberg, Anton

    2018-04-01

    Efficient control of electrified powertrains requires accurate estimation of the power capability of the battery for the next few seconds into the future. When implemented in a vehicle, the power estimation is part of a control loop that may contain several networked controllers which introduces time delays that may jeopardize stability. In this article, we present and evaluate an adaptive power estimation method that robustly can handle uncertain health status and time delays. A theoretical analysis shows that stability of the closed loop system can be lost if the resistance of the model is under-estimated. Stability can, however, be restored by filtering the estimated power at the expense of slightly reduced bandwidth of the signal. The adaptive algorithm is experimentally validated in lab tests using an aged lithium-ion cell subject to a high power load profile in temperatures from -20 to +25 °C. The upper voltage limit was set to 4.15 V and the lower voltage limit to 2.6 V, where significant non-linearities are occurring and the validity of the model is limited. After an initial transient when the model parameters are adapted, the prediction accuracy is within ± 2 % of the actually available power.

  4. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chopra, O.K. (Argonne National Lab., IL (USA))

    1991-06-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting the change in fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water rectors (LWRs) at 280--330{degrees}C (535--625{degrees}F). The fracture toughness J-R curve and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known mineral in formation. Fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel is estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. The extent of thermal embrittlement is characterized by the room-temperature normalized'' Charpy-impact energy. A correlation for the extent of embrittlement at saturation,'' i.e., the minimum impact energy that would be achieved for the material after long-term aging, is given in terms of a material parameter, {Phi}, which is determined from the chemical composition. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained from correlations between room-temperature Charpy-impact energy and fracture toughness parameters. Fracture toughness as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which is determined from chemical composition. A common lower-bound'' J-R curve for cast stainless steels with unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given material specification, ferrite content, and temperature. Examples for estimating impact strength and fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are describes. 24 refs., 39 figs., 2 tabs.

  5. Non-working nurses in Japan: estimated size and its age-cohort characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakata, Yoshifumi; Miyazaki, Satoru

    2008-12-01

    This paper aims to forecast the total number of non-working nursing staff in Japan both overall and in terms of separate age groups for assistant nurses and fully qualified nurses. This also examines policy implications of those forecasts. Although the existence of around 550,000 of non-working nursing staff has been announced, the actual number of non-working nurses is not so clear that we might make errors in making policy to meet nurse workforce demand and supply in Japan. Estimations by integrating various data on the quantitative characteristics of non-working nursing staff were carried out. Considering the length and the type of education or training in referred four nursing positions; registered nurses, assistant nurses, public health nurses and midwives, we first estimated the number of students who completed a full course. And then multiplying by the ratio for gender and age classifications at the time of entry into courses, the number of those who obtained licenses was estimated. The number of non-working nurses was estimated at 100,000 higher than those in 2005 by government. Looking at age group, it is also possible to see a strong reflection of an employment pattern that follows the life cycle of female workers. Further analysis of life cycle effects and cohort effects proved the effect of life cycles even when subtracting the differences between the working behaviours of different generations. Our findings strongly suggest the need to provide an urgent policy that workplace conditions can be created in which a balance between work and family is achievable. Moreover, to empower clinical activity, we also believe there is an urgent need to reexamine the overall career vision for assistant nurses including in terms of compensation. Relevance to clinical practice. Our findings strongly suggests that consideration for work-life balance of nursing staff; particularly, female staff is all the more important to provide a stable quality care.

  6. Errors in 'BED'-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy B Hallett

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay, believed to distinguish recent HIV infections, is being used to estimate HIV incidence, although an important property of the test--how specificity changes with time since infection--has not been not measured.We construct hypothetical scenarios for the performance of BED test, consistent with current knowledge, and explore how this could influence errors in BED estimates of incidence using a mathematical model of six African countries. The model is also used to determine the conditions and the sample sizes required for the BED test to reliably detect trends in HIV incidence.If the chance of misclassification by BED increases with time since infection, the overall proportion of individuals misclassified could vary widely between countries, over time, and across age-groups, in a manner determined by the historic course of the epidemic and the age-pattern of incidence. Under some circumstances, changes in BED estimates over time can approximately track actual changes in incidence, but large sample sizes (50,000+ will be required for recorded changes to be statistically significant.The relationship between BED test specificity and time since infection has not been fully measured, but, if it decreases, errors in estimates of incidence could vary by place, time and age-group. This means that post-assay adjustment procedures using parameters from different populations or at different times may not be valid. Further research is urgently needed into the properties of the BED test, and the rate of misclassification in a wide range of populations.

  7. Magnetic resonance imaging of third molars: developing a protocol suitable for forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, Jannick; Hillewig, Elke; Bogaert, Stephanie; Deblaere, Karel; Verstraete, Koenraad

    2017-03-01

    Established dental age estimation methods in sub-adults study the development of third molar root apices on radiographs. In living individuals, however, avoiding ionising radiation is expedient. Studying dental development with magnetic resonance imaging complies with this requirement, adding the advantage of imaging in three dimensions. To elaborate the development of an MRI protocol to visualise all third molars for forensic age estimation, with particular attention to the development of the root apex. Ex vivo scans of porcine jaws and in vivo scans of 10 volunteers aged 17-25 years were performed to select adequate sequences. Studied parameters were T1 vs T2 weighting, ultrashort echo time (UTE), fat suppression, in plane resolution, slice thickness, 3D imaging, signal-to-noise ratio, and acquisition time. A bilateral four-channel flexible surface coil was used. Two observers evaluated the suitability of the images. T2-weighted images were preferred to T1-weighted images. To clearly distinguish root apices in (almost) fully developed third molars an in plane resolution of 0.33 × 0.33 mm 2 was deemed necessary. Taking acquisition time limits into account, only a T2 FSE sequence with slice thickness of 2 mm generated images with sufficient resolution and contrast. UTE, thinner slice T2 FSE and T2 3D FSE sequences could not generate the desired resolution within 6.5 minutes. Three Tesla MRI of the third molars is a feasible technique for forensic age estimation, in which a T2 FSE sequence can provide the desired in plane resolution within a clinically acceptable acquisition time.

  8. Modeling mangrove biomass using remote sensing based age and growth estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomasino, D.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Feliciano, E. A.; Lee, S. K.; Trettin, C.; Mangora, M.; Rahman, M.

    2016-12-01

    Mangroves are highly regarded coastal forests because of their ecosystem services and high carbon storage potential. In addition, these forests can develop rapidly in locations where congenial environmental conditions and sediment supply are available. Monitoring the growth and age of developing mangrove forests is crucial for sustainable management and estimating carbon stocks. Combining imagery from radar and optical satellites (e.g., TanDEM-X and Landsat), we can estimate young mangrove growth and age at regional and continental scales. We used TanDEM-X radar interferometry for modeling canopy height in 2013 and Landsat to measure land cover change from 1990 to 2013. Annual NDVI composites were determined for each calendar year between 1990 and 2013. New land areas gained from the transition of water to vegetation were determined by the differences in annual NDVI composites and the reference year 2013. The year of the greatest NDVI difference that met the threshold criteria was used as the initial tree height (0 m). Annual canopy height growth rates were estimated by the duration between land generation times and 2013 canopy height models derived from TanDEM-X and very-high resolution optical data. In this presentation, we compare growth rates and biomass accumulation in mangrove forests at four river deltas; the Zambezi (Mozambique), Rufiji (Tanzania), Ganges (Bangladesh), and Mekong (Vietnam). The spatial patterns of growth rates coincided with characteristic successional paradigms and stream morphology, where the maximum growth rates typically occurred along prograding creek banks. Initial comparisons between height-only and growth-age biomass indicate that the latter tend to overestimate biomass for younger forest stands of similar height. Both the vertical (e.g., canopy height) and horizontal (e.g., expansion) growth rates measured from remote sensing can garner important information regarding mangrove succession and primary productivity. Continued research

  9. Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavides, J. A.; Caillaud, D.; Scurlock, B. M.; Maichak, E. J.; Edwards, W.H.; Cross, Paul C.

    2017-01-01

    Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

  10. An evaluation of age estimation using teeth from South Asian River dolphins (Platanistidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina H Lockyer

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The South Asian river dolphins (Platanista gangetica minor and P. g. gangetica are endangered, geographically isolated, freshwater cetaceans. Accurate age estimation of individuals is an important aspect of population biology as it is used for calculating parameters such as age at maturity and reproduction, longevity, and growth and survival rates. However this has never been comprehensively studied for this endangered cetacean family. A sample of 41 teeth from 29 skulls stored in museum collections was available. We compared two different aging methods to select the most appropriate. This involved decalcification and freeze-sectioning of teeth at variable thicknesses (10–25 micron, and staining with 1 Toluidine Blue, or 2 Ehrlichs Acid Haematoxylin. Stains were then compared for readability of Growth Layer Groups (GLG. The optimum section was found at 20 micron using Erhlichs Acid Haematoxylin. Both dentinal and cemental GLG were readable and comparable, but cemental GLG were generally easier to interpret because they were better defined. Ages varied from newborn / young of year (with none or only a neonatal line present to a maximum age of 30 GLG. There is currently no validation available for GLG deposition rate, but it is likely annual because of the extreme seasonal changes in the river habitat.

  11. Tropical dendrochemistry: A novel approach to estimate age and growth from ringless trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poussart, P.; Myneni, S.; Lanzirotti, A.

    2006-01-01

    Although tropical forests play an active role in the global carbon cycle and climate, their growth history remains poorly characterized compared to other ecosystems on the planet. Trees are prime candidates for the extraction of paleoclimate archives as they can be probed sub-annually, are widely distributed and can live for over 1400 years. However, dendrochronological techniques have found limited applications in the tropics because trees often lack visible growth rings. Alternative methods exist (dendrometry, radio- and stable isotopes), but the derived records are either of short-duration, lack seasonal resolution or are prohibitively labor intensive to produce. Here, we show the first X-ray microprobe synchrotron record of calcium (Ca) from a ringless Miliusa velutina tree from Thailand and use it to estimate the tree's age and growth history. The Ca age model agrees within (le)2 years of bomb-radiocarbon age estimates and confirms that the cycles are seasonal. The amplitude of the Ca annual cycle is correlated significantly with growth and annual Ca maxima correlate with the amount of dry season rainfall. Synchrotron measurements are fast and producing sufficient numbers of replicated multi-century tropical dendrochemical climate records now seems analytically feasible

  12. The chronological age estimation of third molar mineralization of Han population in southwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Maofeng; Qiu, Lihua; Gao, Zhi; Bhandari, Kishor

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to estimate the chronology of third molar mineralization in Han population of southwestern China and find its unique characteristics so that it would provide a reference in several legal cases like forensic age estimation. The study used Demirjian's staging method to study 2192 orthopantomograms of 984 male and 1208 female subjects aged between 8 and 25 years. The statistical data was analyzed by Student's t test and ANOVA. The conclusions of the study are: (1) The chronological mineralization age of third molars of Han population in Southwestern China is similar to the Turkish and the Japanese, was earlier than the Austrian and Han of South China, but later than the Spanish. (2) The mineralization timing of the third molars between two sides in maxilla or mandible has no significant differences in the same gender group. (3) There is no significant difference in mineralization of third molars between male and female, except for tooth 48 in Demirjian's stage E. (4) The mineralization of third molar in maxilla is earlier than mandible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  13. Dental age estimation in a Brazilian adult population using Cameriere’s method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana de Cássia Silva AZEVEDO

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to develop a specific formula to estimate age in a Brazilian adult population and to compare the original formula from Cameriere to this Brazilian formula. The sample comprised 1,772 periapical radiographs from 443 subjects (219 men, 224 women that were organized into 12 groups according to sex (men or women and age (20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70 years and older. The films were analyzed using the criteria described by Cameriere et al. (2004 and Adobe Photoshop®. We obtained a mean error of 8.56 (SD = 5.80 years for tooth 13, 7.99 (SD = 5.78 years for tooth 23, 8.38 (SD = 6.26 years for tooth 33, and 8.20 (SD = 6.54 years for tooth 43. When teeth were combined in the analysis, we observed lower mean errors. The Brazilian formula developed from this sample group was more accurate than Cameriere’s formula. However, other factors must be considered to improve age estimates in adults.

  14. Calliphora vicina (Diptera: Calliphoridae) pupae: a timeline of external morphological development and a new age and PMI estimation tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Katherine; Thorne, Alan; Harvey, Michelle

    2015-07-01

    The minimum postmortem interval (PMI(min)) is commonly estimated using calliphorid larvae, for which there are established age estimation methods based on morphological and development data. Despite the increased duration and sedentary nature of the pupal stage of the blowfly, morphological age estimation methods are poorly documented and infrequently used for PMI determination. The aim of this study was to develop a timeline of metamorphosis, focusing on the development of external morphology (within the puparium), to provide a means of age and PMI estimation for Calliphora vicina (Rob-Desvoidy) pupae. Under controlled conditions, 1,494 pupae were reared and sampled at regular time intervals. After puparium removal, observations of 23 external metamorphic developments were correlated to age in accumulated degree hours (ADH). Two age estimation methods were developed based on (1) the combination of possible age ranges observed for each characteristic and (2) regression analyses to generate age estimation equations employing all 23 characteristics observed and a subset of ten characteristics most significantly correlated with age. Blind sample analysis indicated that, using the combination of both methods, pupal age could be estimated to within ±500 ADH with 95% reliability.

  15. Age estimation by dental developmental stages in children and adolescents in Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidisdottir, Sigridur Rosa; Richter, Svend

    2015-12-01

    Studies have shown that it is necessary to create a database for dental maturity for every population and compare it to others. The present study is the first one for dental development in the Icelandic population the age range being 4-24 years. It will help in forensic dental age estimation and will also help dentists, physicians, anthropologists, archaeologists and other professionals who rely on developmental age assessment in children and adolescents. In this present retrospective cross-sectional study, dental maturity was determined in 1100 Icelandic children and adolescents from orthopantomograms (OPGs). The first 100 were used for a pilot study and the remaining 1000 for the main study. A total of 23 subjects were excluded. The sample consisted of 508 girls and 469 boys from the age of 4-24 years and a dental developmental scoring system was used as a standard for determination of dental maturity stages. A total of 200 OPGs were studied both on the left and right side and the remaining on the right side. Dental maturity was established for all teeth and both genders, when the sample permitted, from the beginning of crown formation to the root apex closure. The Cronbach's Alpha reliability test showed high reliability, R=0.982. Girls in Iceland reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 17.81 years of age for the maxillary and at 18.47 years for the mandibular teeth. Boys reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 18.00 years of age in the maxilla and 17.63 in the mandible. There was no significant difference between left and right side (r=0.95-1.00) and there was no gender difference, except in root formation in maxillary and mandibular canines where girls reached root completed earlier than boys. A reliable database has been established in Iceland for tooth development in the age range of 4-24 years, which is compatible with international studies. These results will help forensic odontologists and other professionals to estimate with

  16. Nonparametric estimation of age-specific reference percentile curves with radial smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiaohai; Qu, Yongming; Huang, Yao; Zhang, Xiao; Song, Hanping; Jiang, Honghua

    2012-01-01

    Reference percentile curves represent the covariate-dependent distribution of a quantitative measurement and are often used to summarize and monitor dynamic processes such as human growth. We propose a new nonparametric method based on a radial smoothing (RS) technique to estimate age-specific reference percentile curves assuming the underlying distribution is relatively close to normal. We compared the RS method with both the LMS and the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) methods using simulated data and found that our method has smaller estimation error than the two existing methods. We also applied the new method to analyze height growth data from children being followed in a clinical observational study of growth hormone treatment, and compared the growth curves between those with growth disorders and the general population. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. 40Ar-39Ar method for age estimation: principles, technique and application in orogenic regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalmejer, R.

    1984-01-01

    A variety of the K-Ar method for age estimation by 40 Ar/ 39 Ar recently developed is described. This method doesn't require direct analysis of potassium, its content is calculated as a function of 39 Ar, which is formed from 39 K under neutron activation. Errors resulted from interactions between potassium and calcium nuclei with neutrons are considered. The attention is paid to the technique of gradual heating, used in 40 Ar- 39 Ar method, and of obtaining age spectrum. Aplicabilities of isochronous diagram is discussed for the case of presence of excessive argon in a sample. Examples of 40 Ar- 39 Ar method application for dating events in orogenic regions are presented

  18. Age- and sex-dependent model for estimating radioiodine dose to a normal thyroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to 131 I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. The model was made to conform to these data requirements by the use of age-specific estimates of the biological half-time of iodine in the thyroid and an age- and sex-dependent representation of the mass of the thyroid. Also, it was assumed that the thyroid burden was maximum 24 hours after administration (the 131 I dose is not critically sensitive to this assumption). The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K[exp(-μ 1 t) - exp(-μ 2 t)] (μCi), where μ 1 = lambda/sub r/ + lambda/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), lambda/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and lambda/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal rate coefficients. The values of lambda/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time of maximum uptake and the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). The value of K may then be calculated from knowledge of the uptake at a particular time. The dosimetric S-factor (rad/μCi-day) is based on specific absorbed fractions for photons of energy ranging from 0.01 to 4.0 MeV for thyroid masses from 1.29 to 19.6 g; the functional form of the S-factor also involves the thyroid mass explicitly, through which the dependence on age and sex enters. An analysis of sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the thyroid mass and the biological removal rate for several age groups is reported. The model could prove useful in the dosimetry of very short-lived radioiodines. Tables of age- and sex-dependent coefficients are provided to enable readers to make their own calculations. 12 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  19. Age estimation in forensic sciences: application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L

    2010-05-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ((14)C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R(2) = 0.66, p Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 +/- 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  20. Age estimation in forensic sciences: Application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alkass, K; Buchholz, B A; Ohtani, S; Yamamoto, T; Druid, H; Spalding, S L

    2009-11-02

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster, since the age at death, birth date and year of death, as well as gender, can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this paper we analyze teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that above-ground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ({sup 14}C) which have been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel and ten of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2=0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 0.6 {+-} 04 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 {+-} 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  1. How old are you? Genet age estimates in a clonal animal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devlin-Durante, M K; Miller, M W; Precht, W F; Baums, I B

    2016-11-01

    Foundation species such as redwoods, seagrasses and corals are often long-lived and clonal. Genets may consist of hundreds of members (ramets) and originated hundreds to thousands of years ago. As climate change and other stressors exert selection pressure on species, the demography of populations changes. Yet, because size does not indicate age in clonal organisms, demographic models are missing data necessary to predict the resilience of many foundation species. Here, we correlate somatic mutations with genet age of corals and provide the first, preliminary estimates of genet age in a colonial animal. We observed somatic mutations at five microsatellite loci in rangewide samples of the endangered coral, Acropora palmata (n = 3352). Colonies harboured 342 unique mutations in 147 genets. Genet age ranged from 30 to 838 years assuming a mutation rate of 1.195 -04 per locus per year based on colony growth rates and 236 to 6500 years assuming a mutation rate of 1.542 -05 per locus per year based on sea level changes to habitat availability. Long-lived A. palmata genets imply a large capacity to tolerate past environmental change, and yet recent mass mortality events in A. palmata suggest that capacity is now being frequently exceeded. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Estimation of legal age using calcification stages of third molars in living individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streckbein, Philipp; Reichert, Isabelle; Verhoff, Marcel A; Bödeker, Rolf-Hasso; Kähling, Christopher; Wilbrand, Jan-Falco; Schaaf, Heidrun; Howaldt, Hans-Peter; May, Andreas

    2014-12-01

    The increased number of adolescents and young adults with unknown or inaccurately given date of birth is a current issue in justice and legal medicine. The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which third molar calcification stages assessed on panoramic X-rays could be useful as additional criteria for forensic age estimation in living individuals, focusing on the legally important ages 17 and 18. In a retrospective multi-center study, the developmental stage of each individual's third molar was analyzed using Demirjian's scale in 2360 cases. Additionally, sex, age and ancestry were assessed. Individuals with the lowest calcification stage of all present molars in stage H were ≥18 years with a likelihood of ≥99.05% in the female (n=388), and ≥99.24% in the male (n=482) population. The lowest calcification stage of all present third molars proved to be useful as an additional reliable criterion for the determination of an age ≥18 years. Copyright © 2014 Forensic Science Society. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Bias correction of nutritional status estimates when reported age is used for calculating WHO indicators in children under five years of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quezada, Amado D; García-Guerra, Armando; Escobar, Leticia

    2016-06-01

    To assess the performance of a simple correction method for nutritional status estimates in children under five years of age when exact age is not available from the data. The proposed method was based on the assumption of symmetry of age distributions within a given month of age and validated in a large population-based survey sample of Mexican preschool children. The main distributional assumption was consistent with the data. All prevalence estimates derived from the correction method showed no statistically significant bias. In contrast, failing to correct attained age resulted in an underestimation of stunting in general and an overestimation of overweight or obesity among the youngest. The proposed method performed remarkably well in terms of bias correction of estimates and could be easily applied in situations in which either birth or interview dates are not available from the data.

  4. Bias correction of nutritional status estimates when reported age is used for calculating WHO indicators in children under five years of age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amado D Quezada

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective.To assess the performance of a simple correction method for nutritional status estimates in children under five years of age when exact age is not available from the data. Materials and methods. The proposed method was ba- sed on the assumption of symmetry of age distributions within a given month of age and validated in a large population-based survey sample of Mexican preschool children. Results. The main distributional assumption was consistent with the data. All prevalence estimates derived from the correction method showed no statistically significant bias. In contrast, failing to correct attained age resulted in an underestimation of stunting in general and an overestimation of overweight or obesity among the youngest. Conclusions. The proposed method performed remarkably well in terms of bias correction of estimates and could be easily applied in situations in which either birth or interview dates are not available from the data.

  5. Absolute and estimated values of macular pigment optical density in young and aged Asian participants with or without age-related macular degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozawa, Yoko; Shigeno, Yuta; Nagai, Norihiro; Suzuki, Misa; Kurihara, Toshihide; Minami, Sakiko; Hirano, Eri; Shinoda, Hajime; Kobayashi, Saori; Tsubota, Kazuo

    2017-08-29

    Lutein and zeaxanthin are suggested micronutrient supplements to prevent the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a leading cause of blindness worldwide. To monitor the levels of lutein/zeaxanthin in the macula, macular pigment optical density (MPOD) is measured. A commercially available device (MPSII®, Elektron Technology, Switzerland), using technology based on heterochromatic flicker photometry, can measure both absolute and estimated values of MPOD. However, whether the estimated value is applicable to Asian individuals and/or AMD patients remains to be determined. The absolute and estimated values of MPOD were measured using the MPSII® device in 77 participants with a best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) > 0.099 (logMAR score). The studied eyes included 17 young (20-29 years) healthy, 26 aged (>50 years) healthy, 18 aged and AMD-fellow, and 16 aged AMD eyes. The mean BCVA among the groups were not significantly different. Both absolute and estimated values were measurable in all eyes of young healthy group. However, absolute values were measurable in only 57.7%, 66.7%, and 43.8%, of the aged healthy, AMD-fellow, and AMD groups, respectively, and 56.7% of the eyes included in the 3 aged groups. In contrast, the estimated value was measurable in 84.6%, 88.9% and 93.8% of the groups, respectively, and 88.3% of eyes in the pooled aged group. The estimated value was correlated with absolute value in individuals from all groups by Spearman's correlation coefficient analyses (young healthy: R 2  = 0.885, P = 0.0001; aged healthy: R 2  = 0.765, P = 0.001; AMD-fellow: R 2  = 0.851, P = 0.0001; and AMD: R 2  = 0.860, P = 0.013). Using the estimated value, significantly lower MPOD values were found in aged AMD-related eyes, which included both AMD-fellow and AMD eyes, compared with aged healthy eyes by Student's t-test (P = 0.02). Absolute, in contrast to estimated, value was measurable in a limited number of aged participants

  6. Strategies for estimating the water budget at different scales using the JGrass-NewAGE system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancheri, M.; Rigon, R.; Serafin, F.; Abera, W.; Bottazzi, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recently we presented two papers one dedicated to the estimation of the water budget components in a small, basin, the Posina catchment [Abera et al., 2017], and the other in a large basin, the Blue Nile [Abera et al., 2017b]. At the smallest scale the ground measurements available do not guarantee the closure of the budget without making additional hypothesis. The large scale case, instead, was largely supported by remote sensing data either for calibration and/or validation. This contribution explains how we actually did it, clarifies some aspects of the informatics and openly discusses the issues risen in our work. We also consider varying configuration of the water budget schemes at the subbasin level, and how this affects the estimates.Finally we analyse the problem of travel times [Rigon et al., 2016a, Rigon et al, 2016b] as it comes out from considering the multiple fluxes and storages. All considerations and simulations are based on the JGrass-NewAGE system [Formetta et al., 2014] and its evolution (Bancheri [2017]).ReferencesAbera, W., Formetta, G., Borga, M., & Rigon, R. (2017a). Estimating the water budget components and their variability in a pre-alpine basin with JGrass-NewAGE. Advances in Water Resources, http://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.03.010Abera, W., Formetta, G., Brocca, L., & Rigon, R. (2017b). Modeling the water budget of the Upper Blue Nile basin using the JGrass-NewAge model system and satellite data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. http://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017Bancheri, M., A travel time model for water budget of complex catchments, ph.D Thesis, 2017Formetta, G., Antonello, A., Franceschi, S., David, O., & Rigon, R. (2014). Hydrological modelling with components: A GIS-based open-source framework. Environmental Modelling and Software,. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.019Rigon, R., Bancheri, M., Formetta, G., & de Lavenne, A. (2016). The geomorphological unit hydrograph from a historical-critical perspective

  7. Estimation of methane emission rate changes using age-defined waste in a landfill site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Kazuei; Furuichi, Toru

    2013-09-01

    Long term methane emissions from landfill sites are often predicted by first-order decay (FOD) models, in which the default coefficients of the methane generation potential and the methane generation rate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are usually used. However, previous studies have demonstrated the large uncertainty in these coefficients because they are derived from a calibration procedure under ideal steady-state conditions, not actual landfill site conditions. In this study, the coefficients in the FOD model were estimated by a new approach to predict more precise long term methane generation by considering region-specific conditions. In the new approach, age-defined waste samples, which had been under the actual landfill site conditions, were collected in Hokkaido, Japan (in cold region), and the time series data on the age-defined waste sample's methane generation potential was used to estimate the coefficients in the FOD model. The degradation coefficients were 0.0501/y and 0.0621/y for paper and food waste, and the methane generation potentials were 214.4 mL/g-wet waste and 126.7 mL/g-wet waste for paper and food waste, respectively. These coefficients were compared with the default coefficients given by the IPCC. Although the degradation coefficient for food waste was smaller than the default value, the other coefficients were within the range of the default coefficients. With these new coefficients to calculate methane generation, the long term methane emissions from the landfill site was estimated at 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4), which corresponds to approximately 2.53% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the city (5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Age- and sex-dependent model for estimating radioiodine dose to a normal thyroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to 131 I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In most cases, the available data consisted of the patient's age at the time of administration, the patient's sex, the quantity of activity administered, the clinically-determined uptake of radioiodine by the thyroid, and the time after administration at which the uptake was determined. The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K[exp(-μ 1 t) -exp(-μ 2 t)] (μCi), where μ 1 = λ/sub r/ - λ/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), λ/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and λ/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal rate coefficients. The values of λ/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time or maximum uptake an the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). The value of K may then be calculated from knowledge of the uptakes at a particular time. The dosimetric S-factor (rad/μCi-day) is based on specific absorbed fractions for photons of energy ranging from 0.01 to 4.0 MeV for thyroid masses from 1.29 to 19.6 g; the functional form of the S-factor also involves the thyroid mass explicitly, through which the dependence on age and sex enters. An analysis of sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the thyroid mass and the biological removal rate for several age groups is reported. 12 references, 5 figures, 5 tables

  9. Dental age estimation in Japanese individuals combining permanent teeth and third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanan, Namratha; Thevissen, Patrick; Fleuws, Steffen; Willems, G

    2012-12-01

    The study aim was, firstly, to verify the Willems et al. model on a Japanese reference sample. Secondly to develop a Japanese reference model based on the Willems et al. method and to verify it. Thirdly to analyze the age prediction performance adding tooth development information of third molars to permanent teeth. Retrospectively 1877 panoramic radiographs were selected in the age range between 1 and 23 years (1248 children, 629 sub-adults). Dental development was registered applying Demirjian 's stages of the mandibular left permanent teeth in children and Köhler stages on the third molars. The children's data were, firstly, used to validate the Willems et al. model (developed a Belgian reference sample), secondly, split ino a training and a test sample. On the training sample a Japanese reference model was developed based on the Willems method. The developed model and the Willems et al; model were verified on the test sample. Regression analysis was used to detect the age prediction performance adding third molar scores to permanent tooth scores. The validated Willems et al. model provided a mean absolute error of 0.85 and 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. The mean absolute error in the verified Willems et al. and the developed Japanese reference model was 0.85, 0.77 and 0.79, 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. On average a negligible change in root mean square error values was detected adding third molar scores to permanent teeth scores. The Belgian sample could be used as a reference model to estimate the age of the Japanese individuals. Combining information from the third molars and permanent teeth was not providing clinically significant improvement of age predictions based on permanent teeth information alone.

  10. Age estimation using development of third molars in South Indian population: A radiological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priyadharshini, K Indra; Idiculla, Jose Joy; Sivapathasundaram, B; Mohanbabu, V; Augustine, Dominic; Patil, Shankargouda

    2015-05-01

    To assess the estimation of chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A-H) method of Demirjian et al. in Chennai population of South India. A sample consisting of 848 individuals (471 males and 377 females) aged between 14 and 30 years was randomly selected for the clinical evaluation and 323 orthopantomograms with clinically missing third molars were taken for radiological evaluation using Demirjian's method from a Chennai population of known chronological age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's Chi-square test and mean values were compared between the study groups using t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's highly significant difference (HSD). In the present study, P age of having clinically completely erupted maxillary third molars was 22.41 years in male subjects and 23.81 years in female subjects and that of mandibular third molars was 21.49 years in male subjects and 23.34 years in female subjects. Mandibular third molars were clinically missing more often in females than in males. Eruption of mandibular third molars was generally ahead of the emergence of maxillary third molars into the oral cavity. Third molar development between male and female subjects showed statistically significant differences at calcification stage F and stage G in maxillary third molars and stage F in mandibular third molars (P third molar eruption reached Demirjian's formation stages earlier in males than in females. It is suggested that in future studies, to increase the accuracy of age determination, indications of sexual maturity and ossification should also be evaluated in addition to third molar mineralization.

  11. Improving artificial forest biomass estimates using afforestation age information from time series Landsat stacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Liangyun; Peng, Dailiang; Wang, Zhihui; Hu, Yong

    2014-11-01

    China maintains the largest artificial forest area in the world. Studying the dynamic variation of forest biomass and carbon stock is important to the sustainable use of forest resources and understanding of the artificial forest carbon budget in China. In this study, we investigated the potential of Landsat time series stacks for aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation in Yulin District, a key region of the Three-North Shelter region of China. Firstly, the afforestation age was successfully retrieved from the Landsat time series stacks in the last 40 years (from 1974 to 2013) and shown to be consistent with the surveyed tree ages, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) value of 4.32 years and a determination coefficient (R (2)) of 0.824. Then, the AGB regression models were successfully developed by integrating vegetation indices and tree age. The simple ratio vegetation index (SR) is the best candidate of the commonly used vegetation indices for estimating forest AGB, and the forest AGB model was significantly improved using the combination of SR and tree age, with R (2) values from 0.50 to 0.727. Finally, the forest AGB images were mapped at eight epochs from 1985 to 2013 using SR and afforestation age. The total forest AGB in seven counties of Yulin District increased by 20.8 G kg, from 5.8 G kg in 1986 to 26.6 G kg in 2013, a total increase of 360 %. For the persistent forest area since 1974, the forest AGB density increased from 15.72 t/ha in 1986 to 44.53 t/ha in 2013, with an annual rate of about 0.98 t/ha. For the artificial forest planted after 1974, the AGB density increased about 1.03 t/ha a year from 1974 to 2013. The results present a noticeable carbon increment for the planted artificial forest in Yulin District over the last four decades.

  12. The age estimation practice related to illegal unaccompanied minors immigration in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradella, F; Pinchi, V; Focardi, M; Grifoni, R; Palandri, M; Norelli, G A

    2017-12-01

    The migrants arrived to the Italian coasts in 2016 were 181.436, 18% more than the previous year and 6% more than the highest number ever since. An "unaccompanied minor" (UAM) is a third-country national or a stateless person under eighteen years of age, who arrives on the territory of the Member State unaccompanied by an adult responsible for him/her whether by law or by the practice of the Member State concerned, and for as long as he or she is not effectively taken into the care of such a person; it includes a minor who is left unaccompanied after he/she entered the territory of the Member States. As many as 95.985 UAMs applied for international protection in an EU member country just in 2015, almost four times the number registered in the previous year. The UAMs arrived in Italy were 28.283 in 2016; 94% of them were males, 92% unaccompanied, 8% of them under 15; the 53,6% is 17; the individuals between 16 and 17 are instead the 82%. Many of them (50%), 6561 in 2016, escaped from the sanctuaries, thus avoiding to be formally identified and registered in Italy in the attempt to reach more easily northern Europe countries, since The Dublin Regulations (2003) state that the asylum application should be held in the EU country of entrance or where parents reside. The age assessment procedures can therefore be considered as a relevant task that weighs in on the shoulders of the forensic experts with all the related issues and the coming of age is the important threshold. In the EU laws on asylum, the minors are considered as one of the groups of vulnerable persons towards whom Member States have specific obligations. A proper EU common formal regulation in the matter of age estimation procedures still lacks. According to the Italian legal framework in the matter, a medical examination should have been always performed but a new law completely changed the approach to the procedures of age estimation of the migrant (excluding the criminal cases) with a better adherence

  13. Forensic Age Estimation of Chinese Malaysian Adults by Evaluating Occlusal Tooth Wear Using Modified Kim’s Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chai Kit Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objective. Evaluation of dental attrition is an easy and relatively accurate approach to estimating the age of an adult either ante- or postmortem for some specific population. Dental attrition represents a progressive physiological age change that can be measured using variety of indices to aid as an adjunct in forensic age estimation. Some of the previously proposed indices have their own practical limitations. This paper focuses on using modified Kim’s criteria to score dental attrition to estimate the age of Chinese Malaysian adults and validate it. Methodology. Tooth wear was evaluated on 190 dental models of Chinese Malaysian adults (age range: 20–60 years using modified Kim’s index to custom-derive a population specific linear equation. The same equation was validated further on new 60 dental casts. Results and Conclusion. Regression analysis revealed good correlation between age and teeth wear and lower standard error of estimate. Test of regression on a test sample (n=30 pairs, age range: 20–60 years showed insignificant difference between predicted versus the actual age with statistically acceptable mean absolute difference. These data suggest that modified Kim’s index can be used effectively in forensic age estimation.

  14. Estimation of glandular content rate and statistical analysis of the influence of age group and compressed breast thickness on the estimated value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohmori, Naoki; Ashida, Kenji; Fujita, Osamu

    2003-01-01

    Because the glandular content rate is an important factor in evaluating breast cancer detection and average glandular dose, it is important in mammography research to estimate and analyze this rate. The purpose of this study was to obtain a formula for statistical estimation of the glandular content rate, to clarify statistically the influence of age group and compressed breast thickness (CBT) on estimating the glandular content rate, and to show statistically the general relation between glandular content rate and the factors of age and CBT. The subjects were 740 Japanese women aged 20-91 years (mean±SD: 48.3±12.8 years) who had undergone mammography. In our study, the glandular content rate was statistically estimated from age group, mAs-value, and CBT when subjects underwent mammography, from a phantom simulation, and from MR images of the breast. In addition, multivariate analysis was carried to examine statistically the influence of age group and CBT on glandular content rate. The mean glandular content rate as estimated by age group was as follows: 35.6% for those in their 20s, 33.4% in the 30s, 27.5% in the 40s, 23.8% in the 50s, and 21.8% in those 60 and over. The rate for the subjects as a whole was 27.1%. This study indicated that overestimation occurred if the estimated value of the glandular content rate was not corrected in the 3D-measurement by MRI. In addition, this study showed that the statistical influence on glandular content rate was significantly larger for CBT than age. (author)

  15. Estimating age ratios and size of pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel H Monson

    Full Text Available During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010-2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m(2 (std. err. = 0.02, herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03-0.06 and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0-2 yr-olds tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  16. Dental age estimation in the living after completion of third molar mineralization: new data for Gustafson's criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timme, M; Timme, W H; Olze, A; Ottow, C; Ribbecke, S; Pfeiffer, H; Dettmeyer, R; Schmeling, A

    2017-03-01

    There is a need for dental age estimation methods after completion of the third molar mineralization. Degenerative dental characteristics appear to be suitable for forensic age diagnostics beyond the 18th year of life. In 2012, Olze et al. investigated the criteria studied by Gustafson using orthopantomograms. The objective of this study was to prove the applicability and reliability of this method with a large cohort and a wide age range, including older individuals. For this purpose, 2346 orthopantomograms of 1167 female and 1179 male Germans aged 15 to 70 years were reviewed. The characteristics of secondary dentin formation, cementum apposition, periodontal recession and attrition were evaluated in all the mandibular premolars. The correlation of the individual characteristics with the chronological age was examined by means of a stepwise multiple regression analysis, in which the chronological age formed the dependent variable. Following those results, R 2 values amounted to 0.73 to 0.8; the standard error of estimate was 6.8 to 8.2 years. Fundamentally, the recommendation for conducting age estimations in the living by these methods can be shared. The values for the quality of the regression are, however, not precise enough for a reliable age estimation around regular retirement date ages. More precise regression formulae for the age group of 15 to 40 years of life are separately presented in this study. Further research should investigate the influence of ethnicity, dietary habits and modern health care on the degenerative characteristics in question.

  17. Are the new automated methods for bone age estimation advantageous over the manual approaches?

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sanctis, Vincenzo; Soliman, Ashraf T; Di Maio, Salvatore; Bedair, Said

    2014-12-01

    Bone Age Assessment (BAA) is performed worldwide for the evaluation of endocrine, genetic and chronic diseases, to monitor response to medical therapy and to determine the growth potential of children and adolescents. It is also used for consultation in planning orthopedic procedures, for determination of chronological age for adopted children, youth sports participation and in forensic settings. The main clinical methods for skeletal bone age estimation are the Greulich and Pyle (GP) and the Tanner and Whitehouse (TW) methods. Seventy six per cent (76%) of radiologists or pediatricians usually use the method of GP, 20% that of TW and 4% other methods. The advantages of using the TW method, as opposed to the GP method, are that it overcomes the subjectivity problem and results are more reproducible. However, it is complex and time consuming; for this reason its usage is just about 20% on a world-wide scale. Moreover, there are some evidences that bone age assignments by different physicians can differ significantly. Computerized and Quantitative Ultrasound Technologies (QUS) for assessing skeletal maturity have been developed with the aim of reducing many of the inconsistencies associated with radiographic investigations. In spite of the fact that the volume of automated methods for BAA has increased, the majotity of them are still in an early phase of development. QUS is comparable to the GP based method, but there is not enough established data yet for the healthy population. The Authors wish to stimulate the attention on the accuracy, reliability and consistency of BAA and to initiate a debate on manual versus automated approaches to enhance our assessment for skeletal matutation in children and adolescents.

  18. Does the Early Bird Catch the Worm? Instrumental Variable Estimates of Educational Effects of Age of School Entry in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Puhani, Patrick A.; Weber, Andrea M.

    2006-01-01

    We estimate the effect of age of school entry on educational outcomes using two different data sets for Germany, sampling pupils at the end of primary school and in the middle of secondary school. Results are obtained based on instrumental variable estimation exploiting the exogenous variation in month of birth. We find robust and significant positive effects on educational outcomes for pupils who enter school at seven instead of six years of age: Test scores at the end of primary school incr...

  19. Age group estimation in free-ranging African elephants based on acoustic cues of low-frequency rumbles

    OpenAIRE

    Stoeger, Angela S.; Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Baotic, Anton

    2014-01-01

    Animal vocal signals are increasingly used to monitor wildlife populations and to obtain estimates of species occurrence and abundance. In the future, acoustic monitoring should function not only to detect animals, but also to extract detailed information about populations by discriminating sexes, age groups, social or kin groups, and potentially individuals. Here we show that it is possible to estimate age groups of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on acoustic parameters extracte...

  20. Estimation of age of Dali-Ganis rifting and associated volcanic activity, Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilevsky, A. T.

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of age for the Dali and Ganis Chasma rift zones and their associated volcanism based on photogeologic analysis of stratigraphic relations of rift-associated features with impact craters which have associated features indicative of their age. The features are radar-dark and parabolic, and they are believed to be mantles of debris derived from fallout of the craters' ejecta. They are thought to be among the youngest features on the Venusian surface, so their 'parent' craters must also be very young, evidently among the youngest 10 percent of Venus' crater population. Dali Chasma and Ganis Chasma are a part of a system of rift zones contained within eastern Aphrodite and Atla Regio which is a significant component of Venus tectonics. The rifts of this system are fracture belts which dissect typical Venusian plains with rare islands of tessera terrain. The rift zone system consists of several segments following each other (Diane, Dali, Ganis) and forming the major rift zone line, about 10,000 km long, which has junctions with several other rift zones, including Parga Chasma Rift. The junctions are usually locations of rift-associated volcanism in the form of volcanic edifices (Maat and Ozza Montes) or plain-forming flows flooding some areas within the rift zones and the adjacent plains.

  1. Dental age estimation in living individuals using 3.0 T MRI of lower third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yucheng; Olze, Andreas; Ottow, Christian; Schmidt, Sven; Schulz, Ronald; Heindel, Walter; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Vieth, Volker; Schmeling, Andreas

    2015-11-01

    In order to increase the validity of age estimation in adolescents and young adults when there is no legitimation for X-ray examinations, it seems desirable to be able to assess the mineralization of third molars using X-ray-free imaging procedures. In the present study, the mineralization stages of lower third molars were determined prospectively in 269 male and 248 female individuals aged 12 to 24 years using 3.0 T MRI. The classification system of Demirjian et al. was used to determine the stages. This study presents the minima and maxima, means and standard deviations, median values, and lower and upper quartiles separately for both sexes, for the mineralization stages B-H. Statistically significant sex differences were observed for the mineralization stages C, E, F, and G, and a faster developmental rate was observed for males. It was concluded that magnetic resonance imaging is an X-ray-free alternative to orthopantomography when assessing mineralization of third molars.

  2. Estimations of evapotranspiration in an age sequence of Eucalyptus plantations in subtropical China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenfei Liu

    Full Text Available Eucalyptus species are widely planted for reforestation in subtropical China. However, the effects of Eucalyptus plantations on the regional water use remain poorly understood. In an age sequence of 2-, 4- and 6-year-old Eucalyptus plantations, the tree water use and soil evaporation were examined by linking model estimations and field observations. Results showed that annual evapotranspiration of each age sequence Eucalyptus plantations was 876.7, 944.1 and 1000.7 mm, respectively, accounting for 49.81%, 53.64% and 56.86% of the annual rainfall. In addition, annual soil evaporations of 2-, 4- and 6-year-old were 318.6, 336.1, and 248.7 mm of the respective Eucalyptus plantations. Our results demonstrated that Eucalyptus plantations would potentially reduce water availability due to high evapotranspiration in subtropical regions. Sustainable management strategies should be implemented to reduce water consumption in Eucalyptus plantations in the context of future climate change scenarios such as drought and warming.

  3. Soil characteristics of landslides on Mount Elgon (Uganda): implications for estimating their age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Eynde, Elise; Dondeyne, Stefaan; Isabirye, Moses; Deckers, Jozef; Poesen, Jean

    2017-04-01

    The slopes of Mount Elgon, a complex volcano at the border between Uganda and Kenya, are frequently affected by landslides with disastrous effects on the livelihood of its population. Since local people greatly depend on the land for crop production, we examined if and how fast physico-chemical characteristics in landslide scars recover. A chronosequence of 18 landslides covering a period of 103 years was sampled in order to explore differences between topsoil within and outside landslide scars. For each landslide, two topsoil samples were taken within the landslide and two in nearby undisturbed soils to compare their physico-chemical characteristics. No differences were found for available P, Ca2+, Mg2+ content or for the fine earth texture. Recent landslides had however lower content of soil organic carbon (OC) and K+, and higher content of rock fragments and Na+ than the adjacent soils. Soil OC content increased significantly with age and reached levels of the corresponding undisturbed soils after ca. 60 years. Older landslides had even higher OC contents than soils adjacent to the landslide. Hence landslide scars act as local carbon sink. We suggest that the occurrence of rock fragments in the topsoil is a useful indicator for mapping past landslides. Moreover, the difference in soil OC content between landslide scars and adjacent soil could be used for estimating the age of landslides in data-poor regions.

  4. The Use of CT Scans in Estimating Age at Death by Examining the Extent of Ectocranial Suture Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyd, Kristen Leigh; Villa, Chiara; Lynnerup, Niels

    2015-01-01

    -aged individuals. ANOVA test revealed no difference between two groups of scans and between left and right sides (p > 0.05). Interobserver agreement was good, especially considering the score by sides. The results of this study create the base for developing a robust and simple method to estimate the age at death...

  5. Multivariate methods for the analysis of complex and big data in forensic sciences. Application to age estimation in living persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefèvre, Thomas; Chariot, Patrick; Chauvin, Pierre

    2016-09-01

    Researchers handle increasingly higher dimensional datasets, with many variables to explore. Such datasets pose several problems, since they are difficult to handle and present unexpected features. As dimensionality increases, classical statistical analysis becomes inoperative. Variables can present redundancy, and the reduction of dataset dimensionality to its lowest possible value is often needed. Principal components analysis (PCA) has proven useful to reduce dimensionality but present several shortcomings. As others, forensic sciences will face the issues specific related to an evergrowing quantity of data to be integrated. Age estimation in living persons, an unsolved problem so far, could benefit from the integration of various sources of data, e.g., clinical, dental and radiological data. We present here novel multivariate techniques (nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques, NLDR), applied to a theoretical example. Results were compared to those of PCA. NLDR techniques were then applied to clinical, dental and radiological data (13 variables) used for age estimation. The correlation dimension of these data was estimated. NLDR techniques outperformed PCA results. They showed that two living persons sharing similar characteristics may present rather different estimated ages. Moreover, data presented a very high informational redundancy, i.e., a correlation dimension of 2. NLDR techniques should be used with or preferred to PCA techniques to analyze complex and big data. Data routinely used for age estimation may not be considered suitable for this purpose. How integrating other data or approaches could improve age estimation in living persons is still uncertain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A New Form of Nondestructive Strength-Estimating Statistical Models Accounting for Uncertainty of Model and Aging Effect of Concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Kee Jeung; Kim, Jee Sang

    2009-01-01

    As concrete ages, the surrounding environment is expected to have growing influences on the concrete. As all the impacts of the environment cannot be considered in the strength-estimating model of a nondestructive concrete test, the increase in concrete age leads to growing uncertainty in the strength-estimating model. Therefore, the variation of the model error increases. It is necessary to include those impacts in the probability model of concrete strength attained from the nondestructive tests so as to build a more accurate reliability model for structural performance evaluation. This paper reviews and categorizes the existing strength-estimating statistical models of nondestructive concrete test, and suggests a new form of the strength-estimating statistical models to properly reflect the model uncertainty due to aging of the concrete. This new form of the statistical models will lay foundation for more accurate structural performance evaluation.

  7. Age difference in deposition of plutonium in organs of rats and the estimation of distribution in humans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fukuda, Satoshi; Iida, Haruzo [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    2000-05-01

    Differences in plutonium distribution in various organs, particularly the bones, of rats injected at different ages were examined in order to aid in estimating plutonium distribution in humans. Comparisons were made between rats and humans based on the bone histomorphometric and mineral density data. Male and female rats of three ages (3, 12, and 24 months old), respectively, received an injection of plutonium nitrate by two dose modalities; a fixed amount of plutonium without regard to age, sex, or body weight; per g of body weight. The rats were killed 2 weeks after the injection of plutonium. The amounts of plutonium deposited in the organs varied without regard to the body or organ weight; those in the skeleton increased from 3 to 12 months, reaching a peak at 12 months, but then decreased, along with the age-related changes in the bone surface, volume, and mineral density. Those in the liver, spleen and kidney decreased despite the body weight gain with age in both sexes. Age-related differences in the deposition of plutonium in humans were estimated based on the bone data characteristics obtained from the histomorphometry and bone mineral density for corresponding of ages between rats and humans. The results indicate that age is the most important factor in estimating the distribution of plutonium deposition in the early period after plutonium exposure, and that body or organ weight is not always a useful indicator, particularly in the aged. (author)

  8. A method for estimating age of medieval sub-adults from infancy to adulthood based on long bone length

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Primeau, Charlotte; Friis, Laila Saidane; Sejrsen, Birgitte

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To develop a series of regression equations for estimating age from length of long bones for archaeological sub-adults when aging from dental development cannot be performed. Further, to compare derived ages when using these regression equations, and two other methods. MATERIAL AND ME...... as later than the medieval period, although this would require further testing. The quadratic equations are suggested to yield more accurate ages then using simply linear regression equations. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.......OBJECTIVES: To develop a series of regression equations for estimating age from length of long bones for archaeological sub-adults when aging from dental development cannot be performed. Further, to compare derived ages when using these regression equations, and two other methods. MATERIAL...... AND METHODS: A total of 183 skeletal sub-adults from the Danish medieval period, were aged from radiographic images. Linear regression formulae were then produced for individual bones. Age was then estimated from the femur length using three different methods: equations developed in this study, data based...

  9. Gestational Age Estimation Based on Fetal Pelvimetry on Fetal Ultrasound in Iraqi Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sattar Razzaq Al-Esawi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ultrasound is an integral part of obstetric practice, and assessment of gestational age (GA is a central element of obstetric ultrasonography. Sonographic estimation of GA is derived from calculations based on fetal measurements. Numerous equations for GA calculation from fetal biometry have been adopted in routine practice. This study reports a new method of estimating GA in the second and third trimester using interischial distance (IID, the distance between the two ischial primary ossification centers, on fetal ultrasound. Four hundred women with uncomplicated normal singleton pregnancies from 16 weeks to term were examined. Standard fetal obstetric ultrasound was done measuring biparietal diameter (BPD and femur length (FL for each fetus. The IID, in millimeters, was correlated with the GA in weeks based upon the BPD and FL individually, and the BPD and FL together. Statistical analysis showed strong correlation between the IID and GA calculated from the FL with correlation coefficient (r =0.989, P < 0.001. Strong linear correlation was also found between the IID and GA based upon BPD and BPD+FL. Further statistical analysis using regression equations also showed that the IID was slightly wider in female fetuses, but this difference was not statistically significant. Resulting from this analysis, we have arrived at an easy-to-use equation: GA Weeks = (IID mm + 8 ±1 week. We feel this method can be especially applicable in the developing world, where midwives may not have access to software for fetal biometry in their basic handheld ultrasound machines. Even more sophisticated machines may not come with loaded software for obstetrics analysis. There are several limitations to this study, discussed below. We recommend further studies correlating the IID with other biometric parameters.

  10. Should total landings be used to correct estimated catch in numbers or mean-weight-at-age?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lewy, Peter; Lassen, H.

    1997-01-01

    Many ICES fish stock assessment working groups have practised Sum Of Products, SOP, correction. This correction stems from a comparison of total weights of the known landings and the SOP over age of catch in number and mean weight-at-age, which ideally should be identical. In case of SOP...... discrepancies some countries correct catch in numbers while others correct mean weight-at-age by a common factor, the ratio between landing and SOP. The paper shows that for three sampling schemes the SOP corrections are statistically incorrect and should not be made since the SOP is an unbiased estimate...... of the total landings. Calculation of the bias of estimated catch in numbers and mean weight-at-age shows that SOP corrections of either of these estimates may increase the bias. Furthermore, for five demersal and one pelagic North Sea species it is shown that SOP discrepancies greater than 2% from...

  11. A Unified tool to estimate Distances, Ages, and Masses (UniDAM) from spectrophotometric data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mints, Alexey; Hekker, Saskia

    2017-08-01

    Context. Galactic archaeology, the study of the formation and evolution of the Milky Way by reconstructing its past from its current constituents, requires precise and accurate knowledge of stellar parameters for as many stars as possible. To achieve this, a number of large spectroscopic surveys have been undertaken and are still ongoing. Aims: So far consortia carrying out the different spectroscopic surveys have used different tools to determine stellar parameters of stars from their derived effective temperatures (Teff), surface gravities (log g), and metallicities ([Fe/H]); the parameters can be combined with photometric, astrometric, interferometric, or asteroseismic information. Here we aim to homogenise the stellar characterisation by applying a unified tool to a large set of publicly available spectrophotometric data. Methods: We used spectroscopic data from a variety of large surveys combined with infrared photometry from 2MASS and AllWISE and compared these in a Bayesian manner with PARSEC isochrones to derive probability density functions (PDFs) for stellar masses, ages, and distances. We treated PDFs of pre-helium-core burning, helium-core burning, and post helium-core burning solutions as well as different peaks in multimodal PDFs (I.e. each unimodal sub-PDF) of the different evolutionary phases separately. Results: For over 2.5 million stars we report mass, age, and distance estimates for each evolutionary phase and unimodal sub-PDF. We report Gaussian, skewed, Gaussian, truncated Gaussian, modified truncated exponential distribution or truncated Student's t-distribution functions to represent each sub-PDF, allowing us to reconstruct detailed PDFs. Comparisons with stellar parameter estimates from the literature show good agreement within uncertainties. Conclusions: We present UniDAM, the unified tool applicable to spectrophotometric data of different surveys, to obtain a homogenised set of stellar parameters. The unified tool and the tables with

  12. Forensic age estimation in anti-piracy trials in Seychelles: Experiences and challenges faced.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawardena, S A; Liyanage, U A; Weeratna, J B; Mendis, N D N A; Perera, H J M; Jayasekara, R W; Fernando, R

    2017-01-01

    Forensic age estimation (FAE) was conducted using a multifactorial method on thirteen Somali detainees claiming juvenile status during the anti-piracy trials of the Seychelles Supreme Court in 2014/2015. A multidisciplinary team, comprising of four of the authors covering specialties in forensic medicine, forensic odontology and radiology, conducted the FAE using a five-stage protocol. Each detainee was interviewed with an interpreter and examined for disorders affecting dental/skeletal development and for assessment of genital development through Tanner staging. Dental maturity was assessed clinically and radiologically. Eruption stage was assessed using Olze et al. and mandibular third-molar maturity was assessed using Demirjian's classification. Skeletal maturity was assessed from hand-wrist X-rays according to Greulich & Pyle and from CT-clavicle according to Kellinghaus et al. and Schultz et al. Interpretation of findings was done using reference population data from similar ethnic and social backgrounds wherever possible. Final age-ranges were calculated by combining dental and clavicle maturity stages using the regression formula developed by Bassed et al. followed by a 10% correction factor. The team later testified on their findings under cross-examination. The protocol adopted by the authors increased the scientific validity of the findings and was useful in addressing cross-examination queries on exclusion of developmental disorders, ethnic/socioeconomic variability and maintaining chain of custody. Unforeseen jurisdictional and practical limitations were experienced but did not affect the outcome. Combining dental and clavicle developmental data provided the court with a much clearer picture on the likelihood of the detainees' juvenile status which emphasizes the importance of conducting more population studies using combinations of different developmental sites. The authors note that available reference data is mostly from affluent populations whereas

  13. Revised age estimates of Australopithecus-bearing deposits at Sterkfontein, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Lee R; Lacruz, Rodrigo; De Ruiter, Darryl J

    2002-10-01

    The Sterkfontein fossil site in South Africa has produced the largest concentration of early hominin fossils from a single locality. Recent reports suggest that Australopithecus from this site is found within a broad paleontological age of between 2.5-3.5 Ma (Partridge [2000] The Cenozoic of Southern Africa, Oxford: Oxford Monographs, p. 100-125; Partridge et al. [2000a], The Cenozoic of Southern Africa, Oxford: Oxford Monographs, p. 129-130; Kuman and Clarke [2000] J Hum Evol 38:827-847). Specifically, the hominin fossil commonly referred to as the "Little Foot" skeleton from Member 2, which is arguably the most complete early hominin skeleton yet discovered, has been magnetostratigraphically dated to 3.30-3.33 Ma (Partridge [2000] The Cenozoic of Southern Africa, Oxford: Oxford Monographs, p. 100-125; Partridge et al. [2000a], The Cenozoic of Southern Africa, Oxford: Oxford Monographs, p. 129-130). More recent claims suggest that hominin fossils from the Jacovec Cavern are even older, being dated to approximately 3.5 Ma. Our interpretation of the fauna, the archeometric results, and the magnetostratigraphy of Sterkfontein indicate that it is unlikely that any Members yet described from Sterkfontein are in excess of 3.04 Ma in age. We estimate that Member 2, including the Little Foot skeleton, is younger than 3.0 Ma, and that Member 4, previously dated to between 2.4-2.8 Ma, is more likely to fall between 1.5-2.5 Ma. Our results suggest that Australopithecus africanus should not be considered as a temporal contemporary of Australopithecus afarensis, Australopithecus bahrelghazali, and Kenyanthropus platyops. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  14. Estimating Gestational Age With Sonography: Regression-Derived Formula Versus the Fetal Biometric Average.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawyer, Chase R; Anderson, Sarah B; Szychowski, Jeff M; Neely, Cherry; Owen, John

    2018-03-01

    To compare the accuracy of a new regression-derived formula developed from the National Fetal Growth Studies data to the common alternative method that uses the average of the gestational ages (GAs) calculated for each fetal biometric measurement (biparietal diameter, head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur length). This retrospective cross-sectional study identified nonanomalous singleton pregnancies that had a crown-rump length plus at least 1 additional sonographic examination with complete fetal biometric measurements. With the use of the crown-rump length to establish the referent estimated date of delivery, each method's (National Institute of Child Health and Human Development regression versus Hadlock average [Radiology 1984; 152:497-501]), error at every examination was computed. Error, defined as the difference between the crown-rump length-derived GA and each method's predicted GA (weeks), was compared in 3 GA intervals: 1 (14 weeks-20 weeks 6 days), 2 (21 weeks-28 weeks 6 days), and 3 (≥29 weeks). In addition, the proportion of each method's examinations that had errors outside prespecified (±) day ranges was computed by using odds ratios. A total of 16,904 sonograms were identified. The overall and prespecified GA range subset mean errors were significantly smaller for the regression compared to the average (P < .01), and the regression had significantly lower odds of observing examinations outside the specified range of error in GA intervals 2 (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.31) and 3 (odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.32) than the average method. In a contemporary unselected population of women dated by a crown-rump length-derived GA, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development regression formula produced fewer estimates outside a prespecified margin of error than the commonly used Hadlock average; the differences were most pronounced for GA estimates at 29 weeks and later.

  15. Racemization of aspartic acid in root dentin as a tool for age estimation in a Kuwaiti population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfawal, Mohamed Amin; Alqattan, Sahib Issa; Ghallab, Noha Ayman

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of age is one of the most significant tasks in forensic practice. Amino acid racemization is considered one of the most reliable and accurate methods of age estimation and aspartic acid shows a high racemization reaction rate. The present study has investigated the application of aspartic acid racemization in age estimation in a Kuwaiti population using root dentin from a total of 89 upper first premolar teeth. The D/L ratio of aspartic acid was obtained by HPLC technique in a test group of 50 subjects and a linear regression line was established between aspartic acid racemization and age. The correlation coefficient (r) was 0.97, and the standard error of estimation was ±1.26 years. The racemization age "t" of each subject was calculated by applying the following formula: ln [(1 + D/L)/(1 - D/L)] = 0.003181 t + (-0.01591). When the proposed formula "estimated age t = ln [(1 + D/L)/(1 - D/L)] + 0.01591/0.003181" was applied to a validation group of 39 subjects, the range of error was less than one year in 82.1% of the cases and the standard error of estimation was ±1.12. The current work has established a reasonably significant correlation of the D-/L-aspartic acid ratio with age, and proposed an apparently reliable formula for calculating the age in Kuwaiti populations through aspartic acid racemization. Further research is required to find out whether similar findings are applicable to other ethnic populations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  16. Using Landsat TM and NFI data to estimate wood volume, tree biomass and stand age in Dalarna

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reese, Heather; Nilsson, Mats

    1999-10-01

    As part of the `Monitoring of forest ecosystems` project, within the MISTRA program Remote Sensing for the Environment (RESE), and also with funding from the County Administration Board of Dalarna, a demonstration project was undertaken to estimate forest stand parameters in Dalarna with the use of satellite data. Using two full scenes of Landsat Thematic Mapper data and sample plot data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, estimations of above ground tree biomass, age, total wood volume, and separate tree species volumes were made using the `k Nearest Neighbor` method. Accuracy assessment results at the single pixel level for total wood volume are consistent with results from previous kNN estimations, with an overall relative RMSE of 75% for the western scene, and 58% overall relative RMSE for the eastern scene. Validation data show a bias of the estimate toward the mean value of the estimation data. The pixel level estimates of above ground tree biomass and age had similar validation results to those for total wood volume. Biomass estimates had a 77% relative RMSE for the western scene, and 69% for the eastern scene. Age estimates had a relative RMSE of 60% in the western scene and 57% in the eastern scene. The results may suggest the need to incorporate a geographic limitation on the plots used in the estimation, and to further investigate the co-registration between the satellite and plot data. While pixel lever errors are high, an aggregation of the estimates to larger (compartment-sized) areas could decrease the error significantly. Previous similar studies have shown that an RMSE of 10% for total wood volume can be obtained for as small areas as 100 to 450 hectares. The estimates from this study will be evaluated for use by the County Administration Board of Dalarna to find areas of ecological interest and to assist in planning 14 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  17. Performance estimation of control rod position indicator due to aging of magnet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Je Yong; Kim, Ji Ho; Huh, Hyung; Choi, Myoung Hwan; Sohn, Dong Seong

    2009-01-01

    The Control Element Drive Mechanism (CEDM) for the integral reactor is designed to raise and lower the control rod in steps of 2mm in order to satisfy the design features of the integral reactor which are the soluble boron free operation and the use of a nuclear heating for the reactor start-up. The actual position of the control rod could be achieved to sense the magnet connected to the control rod by the position indicator around the upper pressure housing of CEDM. It is sufficient that the actual position information of control rod at 20mm interval from the position indicator is used for the core safety analysis. As the magnet moves upward along the position indicator assembly from the bottom to the top in the upper pressure housing, the output voltage increases linearly step-wise at 0.2VDC increments. Between every step there are transient areas which occur by a contact closing of three reed switches which is the 2-3-2 contact closing sequence. In this paper the output voltage signal corresponding to the position of control rod was estimated on the 2-1-2 contact closing sequence due to the aging of the magnet.

  18. Age estimation in forensic anthropology: quantification of observer error in phase versus component-based methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, Natalie R; Ramirez Montes, Paula Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess observer error in phase versus component-based scoring systems used to develop age estimation methods in forensic anthropology. A method preferred by forensic anthropologists in the AAFS was selected for this evaluation (the Suchey-Brooks method for the pubic symphysis). The Suchey-Brooks descriptions were used to develop a corresponding component-based scoring system for comparison. Several commonly used reliability statistics (kappa, weighted kappa, and the intraclass correlation coefficient) were calculated to assess observer agreement between two observers and to evaluate the efficacy of each of these statistics for this study. The linear weighted kappa was determined to be the most suitable measure of observer agreement. The results show that a component-based system offers the possibility for more objective scoring than a phase system as long as the coding possibilities for each trait do not exceed three states of expression, each with as little overlap as possible. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  19. Accuracy in the legal age estimation according to the third molars mineralization among Mexicans and Columbians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, José; Montero, Javier; Serrano, Sarai; Albaladejo, Alberto; López-Valverde, Antonio; Bica, Isabel

    2014-11-01

    This study aims to assess the accuracy of age estimation according to two cut-off points of Demirjian's developmental stages (G and H) in the wisdom teeth, using panoramic radiographs from Colombian and Mexican teenagers. The degree of maturation of the third molars was classified according to Demirjian in 8 stages (from A to H) by a blinded trained assessor. The sensitivity, specificity and efficacy of two cut-off points (G and H) were calculated for both samples. The orthopantomographies of 316 subjects, 171 Colombians (54.1%) and 145 Mexicans (45.9%), were analyzed. The stage H was found to be the best threshold for detecting juveniles (because the high specificity) in all the third molars assessed. The specificity was higher for lower third molars than for upper third molars, but no asymmetrical discrepancy was noted. The stage H is the best cut-off point for detecting the adulthood when a high-specificity test is required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  20. Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

    2017-11-14

    The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

  1. Radiologic assessment of third molar tooth and spheno-occipital synchondrosis for age estimation: a multiple regression analysis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirturk Kocasarac, Husniye; Sinanoglu, Alper; Noujeim, Marcel; Helvacioglu Yigit, Dilek; Baydemir, Canan

    2016-05-01

    For forensic age estimation, radiographic assessment of third molar mineralization is important between 14 and 21 years which coincides with the legal age in most countries. The spheno-occipital synchondrosis (SOS) is an important growth site during development, and its use for age estimation is beneficial when combined with other markers. In this study, we aimed to develop a regression model to estimate and narrow the age range based on the radiologic assessment of third molar and SOS in a Turkish subpopulation. Panoramic radiographs and cone beam CT scans of 349 subjects (182 males, 167 females) with age between 8 and 25 were evaluated. Four-stage system was used to evaluate the fusion degree of SOS, and Demirjian's eight stages of development for calcification for third molars. The Pearson correlation indicated a strong positive relationship between age and third molar calcification for both sexes (r = 0.850 for females, r = 0.839 for males, P < 0.001) and also between age and SOS fusion for females (r = 0.814), but a moderate relationship was found for males (r = 0.599), P < 0.001). Based on the results obtained, an age determination formula using these scores was established.

  2. Incremental lines in root cementum of human teeth: An approach to their role in age estimation using polarizing microscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aggarwal Pooja

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Age estimation is an important factor in the identification of an individual in forensic science. The hard tissues of the human dentition are able to resist decay and degradation long after other tissues are lost. This resistance has made teeth useful indicators for age calculation. Recent research indicates that tooth cementum annulations (TCA may be used more reliably than any other morphological or histological traits of the adult skeleton for age estimation. The purpose of this study was to examine the correlation between age and the number of incremental lines in human dental cementum and to ascertain the best method of studying cementum with respect to different forms of microscopy. Thirty nonrestorable teeth were extracted from 20 people, and longitudinal ground section of each tooth was prepared. Photomicrographs of the area at the junction of apical and middle third of the root under light and polarized microscope were taken. The cementum was composed of multiple light and dark bands that were counted on the photomicrograph with the help of image analysis software and added to the average eruption time of individual tooth. The predicted age of the individual was thus obtained. Results showed a significant correlation between the predicted age and actual chronological age of the individual. These data indicate that quantitation of cementum annuli is a moderately reliable means for age estimation in humans and polarizing microscopy is a better means of visualizing incremental lines of cementum compared to light microscopy.

  3. Digitized morphometric analysis of dental pulp of permanent mandibular second molar for age estimation of Davangere population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Nerella Narendra; Panchaksharappa, Mamatha Gowda; Annigeri, Rajeshwari G

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the present study is to estimate the age of Davangere population by evaluating the pulp to tooth area ratio (PTR) by using digitized intraoral periapical radiographs of permanent mandibular second molar. 400 intraoral periapical radiograph (IOPA) of permanent mandibular 2nd molar of both the sexes aged 14-60 years were used. Digital camera was used to image the radiographs. Images were computed and PTR was calculated by AUTOCAD software. Intra and Inter observer variability was also assessed. Regression analysis was used to estimate the age of an individual by taking PTR as dependent variable. The mean PTR of males and females was 0.10 ± 0.02 and 0.09 ± 0.02 respectively. Negative correlation was observed, when age was compared with PTR {r = -0.441, -0.406 & -0.419 among males, females and total subjects (p AUTOCAD software. Also high differences were observed between estimated and chronological age of 12 years which is not in the acceptable range. But it provides a new window for research in the forensic sciences in estimating the adult age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  4. Age estimation by modified Demirjian's method (2004) and its applicability in Tibetan young adults: A digital panoramic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijjaragi, Shobha C; Sangle, Varsha A; Saraswathi, F K; Patil, Veerendra S; Ashwini Rani, S R; Bapure, Sunil K

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of the age is a procedure adopted by anthropologists, archeologists and forensic scientists. Different methods have been undertaken. However none of them meet the standards as Demirjian's method since 1973. Various researchers have applied this method, in both original and modified form (Chaillet and Demirjian in 2004) in different ethnic groups and the results obtained were not satisfactory. To determine the applicability and accuracy of modified Demirjian's method of dental age estimation (AE) in 8-18 year old Tibetan young adults to evaluate the interrelationship between dental and chronological age and the reliability between intra- and inter observer relationship. Clinical setting and computerized design. A total of 300 Tibetan young adults with an age range from 8 to 18 years were recruited in the study. Digital panoramic radiographs (DPRs) were evaluated as per the modified Demirjian's method (2004). Pearson correlation, paired t-test, linear regression analysis. Inter -and intraobserver reliability revealed a strong agreement. A positive and strong association was found between chronological age and estimated dental age (r = 0.839) with P < 0.01. Modified Demirjian method (2004) overestimated the age by 0.04 years (2.04 months)in Tibetan young adults. Results suggest that, the modified Demirjian method of AE is not suitable for Tibetan young adults. Further studies: With larger sample size and comparision with different methods of AE in a given population would be an interesting area for future research.

  5. Age estimation based on pulp chamber volume of first molars from cone-beam computed tomography images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Zhi-pu; Ma, Ruo-han; Li, Gang; Zhang, Ji-zong; Ma, Xu-chen

    2015-08-01

    To establish a method that can be used for human age estimation on the basis of pulp chamber volume of first molars and to identify whether the method is good enough for age estimation in real human cases. CBCT images of 373 maxillary first molars and 372 mandibular first molars were collected to establish the mathematical model from 190 female and 213 male patients whose age between 12 and 69 years old. The inclusion criteria of the first molars were: no caries, no excessive tooth wear, no dental restorations, no artifacts due to metal restorative materials present in adjacent teeth, and no pulpal calcification. All the CBCT images were acquired with a CBCT unit NewTom VG (Quantitative Radiology, Verona, Italy) and reconstructed with a voxel-size of 0.15mm. The images were subsequently exported as DICOM data sets and imported into an open source 3D image semi-automatic segmenting and voxel-counting software ITK-SNAP 2.4 for the calculation of pulp chamber volumes. A logarithmic regression analysis was conducted with age as dependent variable and pulp chamber volume as independent variables to establish a mathematical model for the human age estimation. To identify the precision and accuracy of the model for human age estimation, another 104 maxillary first molars and 103 mandibular first molars from 55 female and 57 male patients whose age between 12 and 67 years old were collected, too. Mean absolute error and root mean square error between the actual age and estimated age were used to determine the precision and accuracy of the mathematical model. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology. A mathematical model was suggested for: AGE=117.691-26.442×ln (pulp chamber volume). The regression was statistically significant (p=0.000volume of first molar is a useful index for the estimation of human age with reasonable precision and accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights

  6. Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

    2017-09-01

    A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify

  7. Do Individual Differences and Aging Effects in the Estimation of Geographical Slant Reflect Cognitive or Perceptual Effects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abigail M. Dean

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Several individual differences including age have been suggested to affect the perception of slant. A cross-sectional study of outdoor hill estimation (N = 106 was analyzed using individual difference measures of age, experiential knowledge, fitness, personality traits, and sex. Of particular note, it was found that for participants who reported any experiential knowledge about slant, estimates decreased (i.e., became more accurate as conscientiousness increased, suggesting that more conscientious individuals were more deliberate about taking their experiential knowledge (rather than perception into account. Effects of fitness were limited to those without experiential knowledge, suggesting that they, too, may be cognitive rather than perceptual. The observed effects of age, which tended to produce lower, more accurate estimates of hill slant, provide more evidence that older adults do not see hills as steeper. The main effect of age was to lower slant estimates; such effects may be due to implicit experiential knowledge acquired over a lifetime. The results indicate the impact of cognitive, rather than perceptual factors on individual differences in slant estimation.

  8. Dental computed tomographic imaging as age estimation: morphological analysis of the third molar of a group of Turkish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantekin, Kenan; Sekerci, Ahmet Ercan; Buyuk, Suleyman Kutalmis

    2013-12-01

    Computed tomography (CT) is capable of providing accurate and measurable 3-dimensional images of the third molar. The aims of this study were to analyze the development of the mandibular third molar and its relation to chronological age and to create new reference data for a group of Turkish participants aged 9 to 25 years on the basis of cone-beam CT images. All data were obtained from the patients' records including medical, social, and dental anamnesis and cone-beam CT images of 752 patients. Linear regression analysis was performed to obtain regression formulas for dental age calculation with chronological age and to determine the coefficient of determination (r) for each sex. Statistical analysis showed a strong correlation between age and third-molar development for the males (r2 = 0.80) and the females (r2 = 0.78). Computed tomographic images are clinically useful for accurate and reliable estimation of dental ages of children and youth.

  9. Age estimation using the radiographic visibility of the periodontal ligament in lower third molars in a Portuguese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sequeira, Catarina-Dourado; Teixeira, Alexandra; Caldas, Inês-Morais; Afonso, Américo; Pérez-Mongiovi, Daniel

    2014-12-01

    The mineralization of third molars has been used repeatedly as a method of forensic age estimation. However, this procedure is of little use beyond age 18, especially to determinate if an individual is older than 21 years of age; thus, the development of new approaches is essential. The visibility of the periodontal ligament has been suggested for this purpose. The aim of this work was to determine the usefulness of this methodology in a Portuguese population. Periodontal ligament visibility was assessed in the lower third molars, using a sample of 487 orthopantomograms, 228 of which belonging to females and 259 to males, from a Portuguese population aged 17 to 31 years. A classification of four stages based on the visual phenomenon of disappearance of the periodontal ligament of fully mineralized third molars was used. For each stage, median, variance, minimal and maximal age were assessed. The relationship between age and stage of periodontal ligament had a statistical significance for both sexes. In this population, stage 3 can be used to state that a male person is over 21 years-old; for females, another marker should be used. This technique can be useful for determining age over 21, particularly in males. Differences between studies are evident, suggesting that specific population standards should be used when applying this technique. Key words:Forensic sciences, forensic odontology, age estimation, third molar, periodontal ligament.

  10. Age- and gender-specific estimates of partnership formation and dissolution rates in the Seattle sex survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Sara J; Hughes, James P; Foxman, Betsy; Aral, Sevgi O; Holmes, King K; White, Peter J; Golden, Matthew R

    2010-04-01

    Partnership formation and dissolution rates are primary determinants of sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission dynamics. The authors used data on persons' lifetime sexual experiences from a 2003-2004 random digit dialing survey of Seattle residents aged 18-39 years (N=1,194) to estimate age- and gender-specific partnership formation and dissolution rates. Partnership start and end dates were used to estimate participants' ages at the start of each partnership and partnership durations, and partnerships not enumerated in the survey were imputed. Partnership formation peaked at age 19 at 0.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76-1.04) partnerships per year and decreased to 0.1 to 0.2 after age 30 for women and peaked at age 20 at 1.4 (95% CI: 1.08-1.64) and declined to 0.5 after age 30 for men. Nearly one fourth (23.7%) of partnerships ended within 1 week and more than one half (51.2%) ended within 12 weeks. Most (63.5%) individuals 30 to 39 years of age had not formed a new sexual partnership in the past 3 years. A large proportion of the heterosexual population is no longer at substantial STI risk by their early 30s, but similar analyses among high-risk populations may give insight into reasons for the profound disparities in STI rates across populations. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. The effect of age on in sacco estimates of rumen dry matter and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was conducted to determine whether rumen dry matter and crude protein degradability in calves aged 8-10 weeks differs from that in mature cows. Five Holstein bull calves were rumen-fistulated at six weeks of age and were used in consecutive weekly 24 h trials from 8-20 weeks of age. Dry matter and crude ...

  12. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems-revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chopra, O.K.

    1994-08-01

    This report presents a revision of the procedure and correlations presented earlier in NUREG/CR-4513, ANL-90/42 (June 1991) for predicting the change in mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water reactors at 280-330 degrees C (535-625 degrees F). The correlations presented in this report are based on an expanded data base and have been optimized with mechanical-property data on cast stainless steels aged up to ∼58,000 h at 290-350 degrees C (554-633 degrees F). The fracture toughness J-R curve, tensile stress, and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known material information. Mechanical properties of a specific cast stainless steel are estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. Embrittlement of cast stainless steels is characterized in terms of room-temperature Charpy-impact energy. Charpy-impact energy as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which are also determined from the chemical composition. The initial impact energy of the unaged steel is required for these estimations. Initial tensile flow stress is needed for estimating the flow stress of the aged material. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained by correlating room-temperature Charpy-impact energy with fracture toughness parameters. The values of J IC are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. A common open-quotes predicted lower-boundclose quotes J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, range of ferrite content, and temperature. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented

  13. Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Real-time Ultrasound Measurements for Hanwoo Cows at Different Ages and Pregnancy Status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Lee

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to estimate genetic parameters of ultrasound measurements for longissimus dorsi muscle area (LMA, backfat thickness (BFT, and marbling score (MS in Hanwoo cows (N = 3,062 at the ages between 18 and 42 months. Data were collected from 100 Hanwoo breeding farms in Gyeongbuk province, Korea, in 2007 and 2008. The cows were classified into four different age groups, i.e. 18 to 22 months (the first pregnancy period, 23 to 27 (the first parturition, 28 to 32 (the second pregnancy, and 33 to 42 (the second parturition, respectively. For each age group, a multi-trait animal model was used to estimate variance components and heritabilities of the three traits. The averages of LMA, BFT, and MS measurements across the cows of all age groups were 50.1 cm2, 4.62 mm, and 3.04, respectively and heritability estimates were 0.09, 0.10, and 0.08 for the respective traits. However, when the data were analyzed in different age groups, heritability estimates of LMA and BFT were 0.24 and 0.47, respectively, for the cows of 18 to 22 months of age, and 0.21 for MS in the 28 to 32 months old cows. When the cows of all age groups were used, the estimates of genetic (phenotypic correlations were 0.43 (0.35, −0.06 (0.34 and 0.21 (0.32 between LMA and BFT, LMA and MS, and BFT and MS, respectively. However, in the cow age group between 28 and 32 (18 and 22 months, the estimates of genetic (phenotypic correlations were 0.05 (0.29, −0.15 (0.24 and 0.38 (0.24, for the respective pairs of traits. These results suggest that genetic, environmental, and phenotypic variations differ depending on cow age, such that care must be taken when ultrasound measurements are applied to selection of cows for meat quality.

  14. Age estimation of large trees: New method based on partial increment core tested on an example of veteran oaks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Altman, Jan; Doležal, Jiří; Čížek, Lukáš

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 380, č. 11 (2016), s. 82-89 ISSN 0378-1127 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-12262S; GA ČR GAP504/12/1952 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : Tree age estimation * Dendrochronology * Partial cores Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.064, year: 2016

  15. Estimated Aortic Stiffness is Independently Associated with Cardiac Baroreflex Sensitivity in Humans: Role of Aging and Habitual Endurance Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Gary L.; Harris, Stephen A.; Seals, Douglas R.; Casey, Darren P.; Barlow, Patrick B.; Stauss, Harald M.

    2016-01-01

    We hypothesized that differences in cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) would be independently associated with aortic stiffness and augmentation index (AI), clinical biomarkers of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, among young sedentary and middle-aged/older sedentary and endurance-trained adults. A total of 36 healthy middle-aged/older (age 55-76 years, n=22 sedentary; n=14 endurance-trained) and 5 young sedentary (age 18-31 years) adults were included in a cross-sectional study. A subset of the middle-aged/older sedentary adults (n=12) completed an 8-week aerobic exercise intervention. Invasive brachial artery blood pressure waveforms were used to compute spontaneous cardiac BRS (via sequence technique) and estimated aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) and AI (AI, via brachial-aortic transfer function and wave separation analysis). In the cross-sectional study, cardiac BRS was 71% lower in older compared with young sedentary adults (Pendurance exercise (P=0.03). In a regression model that included age, sex, resting heart rate, mean arterial pressure (MAP), body mass index and maximal exercise oxygen uptake, estimated aortic PWV (β±SE = −5.76 ± 2.01, P=0.01) was the strongest predictor of BRS (Model R2=0.59, Pendurance exercise-related differences in cardiac BRS are independently associated with corresponding alterations in aortic PWV among healthy adults, consistent with a mechanistic link between variations in the sensitivity of the baroreflex and aortic stiffness with age and exercise. PMID:26911535

  16. Estimated aortic stiffness is independently associated with cardiac baroreflex sensitivity in humans: role of ageing and habitual endurance exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, G L; Harris, S A; Seals, D R; Casey, D P; Barlow, P B; Stauss, H M

    2016-09-01

    We hypothesised that differences in cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) would be independently associated with aortic stiffness and augmentation index (AI), clinical biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk, among young sedentary and middle-aged/older sedentary and endurance-trained adults. A total of 36 healthy middle-aged/older (age 55-76 years, n=22 sedentary and n=14 endurance-trained) and 5 young sedentary (age 18-31 years) adults were included in a cross-sectional study. A subset of the middle-aged/older sedentary adults (n=12) completed an 8-week-aerobic exercise intervention. Invasive brachial artery blood pressure waveforms were used to compute spontaneous cardiac BRS (via sequence technique), estimated aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) and AI (AI, via brachial-aortic transfer function and wave separation analysis). In the cross-sectional study, cardiac BRS was 71% lower in older compared with young sedentary adults (Pendurance exercise (P=0.03). In a regression model that included age, sex, resting heart rate, mean arterial pressure (MAP), body mass index and maximal exercise oxygen uptake, estimated aortic PWV (β±s.e.=-5.76±2.01, P=0.01) was the strongest predictor of BRS (model R(2)=0.59, Pendurance-exercise-related differences in cardiac BRS are independently associated with corresponding alterations in aortic PWV among healthy adults, consistent with a mechanistic link between variations in the sensitivity of the baroreflex and aortic stiffness with age and exercise.

  17. Estimating the brain pathological age of Alzheimer’s disease patients from MR image data based on the separability distance criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yongming; Li, Fan; Wang, Pin; Zhu, Xueru; Liu, Shujun; Qiu, Mingguo; Zhang, Jingna; Zeng, Xiaoping

    2016-10-01

    Traditional age estimation methods are based on the same idea that uses the real age as the training label. However, these methods ignore that there is a deviation between the real age and the brain age due to accelerated brain aging. This paper considers this deviation and searches for it by maximizing the separability distance value rather than by minimizing the difference between the estimated brain age and the real age. Firstly, set the search range of the deviation as the deviation candidates according to prior knowledge. Secondly, use the support vector regression (SVR) as the age estimation model to minimize the difference between the estimated age and the real age plus deviation rather than the real age itself. Thirdly, design the fitness function based on the separability distance criterion. Fourthly, conduct age estimation on the validation dataset using the trained age estimation model, put the estimated age into the fitness function, and obtain the fitness value of the deviation candidate. Fifthly, repeat the iteration until all the deviation candidates are involved and get the optimal deviation with maximum fitness values. The real age plus the optimal deviation is taken as the brain pathological age. The experimental results showed that the separability was apparently improved. For normal control-Alzheimer’s disease (NC-AD), normal control-mild cognition impairment (NC-MCI), and MCI-AD, the average improvements were 0.178 (35.11%), 0.033 (14.47%), and 0.017 (39.53%), respectively. For NC-MCI-AD, the average improvement was 0.2287 (64.22%). The estimated brain pathological age could be not only more helpful to the classification of AD but also more precisely reflect accelerated brain aging. In conclusion, this paper offers a new method for brain age estimation that can distinguish different states of AD and can better reflect the extent of accelerated aging.

  18. Age estimation by pulp-to-tooth area ratio using cone-beam computed tomography: A preliminary analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Sixty subjects aged 20-85 years were included in the study. For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections-cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root-were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation ( r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level.

  19. Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkelstein, Julia L; Schleinitz, Mark D; Carabin, Hélène; McGarvey, Stephen T

    2008-03-05

    Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, or =15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 ( or =15 y). Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control.

  20. Comparison between Greulich-Pyle and Girdany-Golden methods for estimating skeletal age of children in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awais, Muhammad; Nadeem, Naila; Husen, Yousuf; Rehman, Abdul; Beg, Madiha; Khattak, Yasir Jamil

    2014-12-01

    To compare Greulich-Pyle (GP) and Girdany-Golden (GG) methods for estimation of Skeletal Age (SA) in children referred to a tertiary care hospital in Karachi, Pakistan. Cross-sectional study. Department of Radiology, The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan, from July 2010 to June 2012. Children up to the age of 18 years, who had undergone X-ray for the evaluation of trauma were included. Each X-ray was interpreted using both methods by two consultant paediatric radiologists having at least 10 years experience, who were blinded to the actual Chronologic Age (CA) of children. A total of 283 children were included. No significant difference was noted in mean SA estimated by GP method and mean CA for female children (p=0.695). However, a significant difference was noted between mean CA and mean SA by GG method for females (p=0.011). For males, there was a significant difference between mean CA and mean SA estimated by both GP and GG methods. A stronger correlation was found between CA and SA estimated by GP method (r=0.943 for girls, r=0.915 for boys) as compared to GG method (r=0.909 for girls, r=0.865 for boys) respectively. Bland- Altman analysis also revealed that the two methods cannot be used interchangeably. Excellent correlation was seen between the two readers for both GP and GG methods. There was no additional benefit of using GP and GG methods simultaneously over using GP method alone. Moreover, although GP was reliable in estimating SA in girls, it was unable to accurately assess SA in boys. Therefore, it would be ideal to develop indigenous standards of bone age estimation based on a representative sample of healthy native children.

  1. Comparison between greulich-pyle and girdany-golden methods for estimating skeletal age of children in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awais, M.; Nadeem, N.; Rehman, A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To compare Greulich-Pyle (GP) and Girdany-Golden (GG) methods for estimation of Skeletal Age (SA) in children referred to a tertiary care hospital in Karachi, Pakistan. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Radiology, The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan, from July 2010 to June 2012. Methodology: Children up to the age of 18 years, who had undergone X-ray for the evaluation of trauma were included. Each X-ray was interpreted using both methods by two consultant paediatric radiologists having at least 10 years experience, who were blinded to the actual Chronologic Age (CA) of children. Results: A total of 283 children were included. No significant difference was noted in mean SA estimated by GP method and mean CA for female children (p=0.695). However, a significant difference was noted between mean CA and mean SA by GG method for females (p=0.011). For males, there was a significant difference between mean CA and mean SA estimated by both GP and GG methods. A stronger correlation was found between CA and SA estimated by GP method (r=0.943 for girls, r=0.915 for boys) as compared to GG method (r=0.909 for girls, r=0.865 for boys) respectively. Bland- Altman analysis also revealed that the two methods cannot be used interchangeably. Excellent correlation was seen between the two readers for both GP and GG methods. Conclusion: There was no additional benefit of using GP and GG methods simultaneously over using GP method alone. Moreover, although GP was reliable in estimating SA in girls, it was unable to accurately assess SA in boys. Therefore, it would be ideal to develop indigenous standards of bone age estimation based on a representative sample of healthy native children. (author)

  2. Estimation of the aging grade of T91 steel by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy coupled with support vector machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Shengzi; Dong, Meirong; Huang, Jianwei; Li, Wenbing; Lu, Jidong; Li, Jun

    2018-02-01

    T91 steel is a representative martensitic heat-resistant steel widely used in high temperature compression components of industrial equipment. During the service period, the operation safety and the service life of the equipment will be affected by the change of structure and mechanical properties of the steel components, which is called material aging. In order to develop a rapid in-situ aging estimation technology of high temperature compression components surface, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) coupled with support vector machine (SVM) was employed in this paper. The spectral characteristics of 10 T91 steel specimens with different aging grades were analyzed. Line intensities and the line intensity ratios (ionic/atomic and alloying element/matrix element) that indicate the change of metallographic structure were used to establish SVM models, and the results using different variable sets were compared. The model was optimized by comparing different pulse number for practical effectiveness, and the robustness of the model was investigated in dealing with the inhomogeneity of steel composition. The study results show that the estimation model obtained the best performance using line intensities and line intensity ratios averaged from 31st-60th laser pulses as input variables. The estimation accuracy of validation set was greatly improved from 75.8% to 95.3%. In addition, the model showed the outstanding capacity for handling the fluctuations of spectral signals between measuring-points (spots), which indicated that the aging estimation based on a few measuring-points is feasible. The studies presented here demonstrate that the LIBS coupled with SVM is a new useful technique for the aging estimation of steel, and would be well-suited for fast safety assessment in industrial field.

  3. Age- and Tumor Subtype-Specific Breast Cancer Risk Estimates for CHEK2*1100delC Carriers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Marjanka K; Hogervorst, Frans; van Hien, Richard R

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: CHEK2*1100delC is a well-established breast cancer risk variant that is most prevalent in European populations; however, there are limited data on risk of breast cancer by age and tumor subtype, which limits its usefulness in breast cancer risk prediction. We aimed to generate tumor...... subtype- and age-specific risk estimates by using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 44,777 patients with breast cancer and 42,997 controls from 33 studies genotyped for CHEK2*1100delC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: CHEK2*1100delC genotyping was mostly done by a custom Taqman assay....... Breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for CHEK2*1100delC carriers versus noncarriers were estimated by using logistic regression and adjusted for study (categorical) and age. Main analyses included patients with invasive breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies. RESULTS: Proportions...

  4. The juvenile face as a suitable age indicator in child pornography cases: a pilot study on the reliability of automated and visual estimation approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnayake, M; Obertová, Z; Dose, M; Gabriel, P; Bröker, H M; Brauckmann, M; Barkus, A; Rizgeliene, R; Tutkuviene, J; Ritz-Timme, S; Marasciuolo, L; Gibelli, D; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    In cases of suspected child pornography, the age of the victim represents a crucial factor for legal prosecution. The conventional methods for age estimation provide unreliable age estimates, particularly if teenage victims are concerned. In this pilot study, the potential of age estimation for screening purposes is explored for juvenile faces. In addition to a visual approach, an automated procedure is introduced, which has the ability to rapidly scan through large numbers of suspicious image data in order to trace juvenile faces. Age estimations were performed by experts, non-experts and the Demonstrator of a developed software on frontal facial images of 50 females aged 10-19 years from Germany, Italy, and Lithuania. To test the accuracy, the mean absolute error (MAE) between the estimates and the real ages was calculated for each examiner and the Demonstrator. The Demonstrator achieved the lowest MAE (1.47 years) for the 50 test images. Decreased image quality had no significant impact on the performance and classification results. The experts delivered slightly less accurate MAE (1.63 years). Throughout the tested age range, both the manual and the automated approach led to reliable age estimates within the limits of natural biological variability. The visual analysis of the face produces reasonably accurate age estimates up to the age of 18 years, which is the legally relevant age threshold for victims in cases of pedo-pornography. This approach can be applied in conjunction with the conventional methods for a preliminary age estimation of juveniles depicted on images.

  5. Raman spectroscopy of human skin: looking for a quantitative algorithm to reliably estimate human age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzotti, Giuseppe; Boffelli, Marco; Miyamori, Daisuke; Uemura, Takeshi; Marunaka, Yoshinori; Zhu, Wenliang; Ikegaya, Hiroshi

    2015-06-01

    The possibility of examining soft tissues by Raman spectroscopy is challenged in an attempt to probe human age for the changes in biochemical composition of skin that accompany aging. We present a proof-of-concept report for explicating the biophysical links between vibrational characteristics and the specific compositional and chemical changes associated with aging. The actual existence of such links is then phenomenologically proved. In an attempt to foster the basics for a quantitative use of Raman spectroscopy in assessing aging from human skin samples, a precise spectral deconvolution is performed as a function of donors' ages on five cadaveric samples, which emphasizes the physical significance and the morphological modifications of the Raman bands. The outputs suggest the presence of spectral markers for age identification from skin samples. Some of them appeared as authentic "biological clocks" for the apparent exactness with which they are related to age. Our spectroscopic approach yields clear compositional information of protein folding and crystallization of lipid structures, which can lead to a precise identification of age from infants to adults. Once statistically validated, these parameters might be used to link vibrational aspects at the molecular scale for practical forensic purposes.

  6. Adult Age Differences in Frequency Estimations of Happy and Angry Faces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikitin, Jana; Freund, Alexandra M.

    2015-01-01

    With increasing age, the ratio of gains to losses becomes more negative, which is reflected in expectations that positive events occur with a high likelihood in young adulthood, whereas negative events occur with a high likelihood in old age. Little is known about expectations of social events. Given that younger adults are motivated to establish…

  7. Age estimation of blood stains by hemoglobin derivative determination using reflectance spectroscopy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bremmer, Rolf H.; Nadort, Annemarie; van Leeuwen, Ton G.; van Gemert, Martin J. C.; Aalders, Maurice C. G.

    2011-01-01

    Blood stains can be crucial in reconstructing crime events. However, no reliable methods are currently available to establish the age of a blood stain on the crime scene. We show that determining the fractions of three hemoglobin derivatives in a blood stain at various ages enables relating these

  8. Normative perceptual estimates for 91 healthy subjects age 60-75: Impact of age, education, employment, physical exercise, alcohol and video gaming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Linda Wilms

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Visual perception serves as the basis for much of the higher level cognitive processing as well as human activity in general. Here we present normative estimates for the following components of visual perception: the visual perceptual threshold, the visual short-term memory capacity and the visual perceptual encoding/decoding speed (processing speed of Visual Short-Term Memory (VSTM based on an assessment of 91 healthy subjects aged 60-75. The estimates were modelled from input from a whole-report assessment based on A Theory of Visual Attention (TVA. In addition to the estimates themselves, we present correlational data, and multiple regression analyses between the estimates and self-reported demographic data and lifestyle variables. The regression statistics suggest that education level, video gaming activity and employment status may significantly impact the encoding/decoding speed of VTSM but not the capacity of VSTM nor the visual perceptual threshold. The estimates will be useful for future studies into the effects of various types of intervention and training on cognition in general and visual attention in particular.

  9. Aspartic acid racemization in dentin of the third molar for age estimation of the Chaoshan population in South China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shisheng; Lv, Yanyi; Wang, Dian; Yu, Xiaojun

    2016-09-01

    Aspartic acid racemization in teeth has been increasingly used to estimate chronological age with a considerably high accuracy in forensic practice. The Chaoshan population in South China is relatively isolated in geography, and has specific lifestyle and dietary inhibits. It is still unknown whether this method is suitable for this population. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between chronological age and the d/l aspartic acid ratio in dentin in the third molar tooth of the Chaoshan population. Fifty-eight non-carious third molar teeth (31 mandibles and 27 maxillae), from 58 living individuals of known age (24 males and 34 females), were retrieved. Dentin was extracted from these teeth. The d- and l-aspartic acids in dentins were separated and detected by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Linear regression was performed between the d/l aspartic acid ratio of dentins and chronological age. Results showed that the correlation coefficient (r) was 0.969, and the mean absolute error (MAE) was 2.19 years, its standard deviation (SD) was ±1.53 years, indicating excellent correlation. There was no significant difference in racemization rates of dentin between sexes (P=0.113, F=2.6), or between mandibles and maxillae (P=0.964, F=0.000). Results indicate that the ratio of the d and l forms of aspartic acid of dentins, in the third molar, is closely correlated with chronological age, special lifestyle do no obviously affect the accuracy of the age estimations by aspartic acid racemization of the dentin in the third molar and that aspartic acid racemization in the third molar dentin can be used as an accurate method to estimate chronological age in the Chaoshan population in South China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Orthopantomographic evaluation of canine and first premolar using Demirjian's stages in central India: new approach to forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Hrishikesh V; Dixit, Pradeep; Shrigiriwar, Manish; Bardale, Rajesh

    2012-07-01

    Teeth development is widely used for age estimation in forensic science. The aims of this study were as follows: first, to establish Indian data on canine and first premolar development for age estimation and second, to investigate population differences in teeth development. Orthopantomograms of 340 Indian children aged between 5 and 14 years were analyzed. Demirjian's stages were recorded for the developmental evaluation of canine and first premolar and for further descriptive statistical analysis. A two-way ANOVA was performed to test the significance of difference in teeth development by sex and stage. A one-way ANOVA was performed to investigate population differences in teeth development. Results showed statistically significant differences in teeth development by sex and stage. Accordingly, teeth development was earlier in girls. No statistically significant differences were observed in timings of Demirjian's stages among different populations. In conclusion, the findings of this study could be used for age estimation of Indian children. © 2012 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  11. Apophyseal Ossification of the Iliac Crest in Forensic Age Estimation: Computed Tomography Standards for Modern Australian Subadults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lottering, Nicolene; Alston-Knox, Clair L; MacGregor, Donna M; Izatt, Maree T; Grant, Caroline A; Adam, Clayton J; Gregory, Laura S

    2017-03-01

    This study contrasts the ontogeny of the iliac crest apophysis using conventional radiography and multislice computed tomography (MSCT), providing probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian subadults. Retrospective abdominopelvic MSCT data acquired from 524 Australian individuals aged 7-25 and surveillance radiographs of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients included in the Paediatric Spine Research Group Progression Study (n = 531) were assessed. Ossification scoring of pseudo-radiographs and three-dimensional (3D) volume-rendered reconstructions using Risser (1958) quantitative descriptors indicate discrepancies in age estimates, stage allocation, and conflicting morphological progression. To mitigate visualization limitations associated with two-dimensional radiographs, we provide and validate a modified 3D-MSCT scoring tier of ossification, demonstrating complete fusion between 17.3-19.2 and 17.1-20.1 years in males and females. Legal demarcation for doli incapax presumption and age of majority (18 years) can be achieved using probability estimates from a fitted cumulative probit model for apophyseal fusion using the recalibrated standards. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  12. Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia L Finkelstein

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, or =15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 ( or =15 y. Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control.

  13. Impact Analysis of Age on Fallout Fatality Estimations for IND Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-30

    dependent radiation dose response for acute effects was evaluated in detail. The analysis included data from animal studies, radiation oncology, and other...and genetic disposition. 17 Section 5. Future Work Analysis provided by the current study suggests that age-variability in dose response can...Defense Threat Reduction Agency 8725 John J. Kingman Road, MS-6201 Fort Belvoir, VA 22060-6201 Impact Analysis of Age on

  14. Prediction of battery storage ageing and solid electrolyte interphase property estimation using an electrochemical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashwin, T. R.; Barai, A.; Uddin, K.; Somerville, L.; McGordon, A.; Marco, J.

    2018-05-01

    Ageing prediction is often complicated due to the interdependency of ageing mechanisms. Research has highlighted that storage ageing is not linear with time. Capacity loss due to storing the battery at constant temperature can shed more light on parametrising the properties of the Solid Electrolyte Interphase (SEI); the identification of which, using an electrochemical model, is systematically addressed in this work. A new methodology is proposed where any one of the available storage ageing datasets can be used to find the property of the SEI layer. A sensitivity study is performed with different molecular mass and densities which are key parameters in modelling the thickness of the SEI deposit. The conductivity is adjusted to fine tune the rate of capacity fade to match experimental results. A correlation is fitted for the side reaction variation to capture the storage ageing in the 0%-100% SoC range. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to predict the unknown properties of the SEI layer which is difficult to measure experimentally. The simulation and experimental results show that the storage ageing model shows good accuracy for the cases at 50% and 90% and an acceptable agreement at 20% SoC.

  15. Age- and sex-tailored serum phosphate thresholds do not improve cardiovascular risk estimation in CKD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Pietro Manuel; Bonello, Monica; Gambaro, Alessia; Sturniolo, Antonio; Gambaro, Giovanni

    2011-01-01

    Disordered metabolism of phosphorus is one of the hallmarks of chronic kidney disease (CKD), resulting in increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Age and sex may affect the metabolism of phosphorus and subsequently its serum level. We evaluated if age- and sex-specific cutoffs for hyperphosphatemia may define cardiovascular risk better than the current guideline cutoffs. We used data from 16,834 subjects participating in the 1999-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES); the prevalence of self-reported cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality rates were analyzed in CKD patients for both the classic definitions (CH; i.e., NKF-KDOQI and K-DIGO) and a tailored definition (TH) of hyperphosphatemia by means of regression models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking status and body mass index. The cutoffs for TH were represented by the 95th percentile of an age- and sex-matched non-CKD population. Serum phosphorus levels showed an inverse correlation with age (r = -0.12; pdefinition and CVD was marginally better compared with the CH definition (odds ratio [OR] = 1.49, 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.04-2.13; p=0.030 vs. OR=1.55, 95% CI, 0.98-2.44; p = 0.059), the TH model was not superior in predicting CVD or mortality. Our data suggest that a tailored, age- and sex-specific definition of hyperphosphatemia is not superior to conventional definitions in predicting cardiovascular events in patients with CKD.

  16. Geostatistical model-based estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence among individuals aged = 20 years in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou

    2011-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years...... ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis...

  17. THE ESTIMATION OF STAR FORMATION RATES AND STELLAR POPULATION AGES OF HIGH-REDSHIFT GALAXIES FROM BROADBAND PHOTOMETRY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seong-Kook; Ferguson, Henry C.; Somerville, Rachel S.; Wiklind, Tommy; Giavalisco, Mauro

    2010-01-01

    We explore methods to improve the estimates of star formation rates and mean stellar population ages from broadband photometry of high-redshift star-forming galaxies. We use synthetic spectral templates with a variety of simple parametric star formation histories to fit broadband spectral energy distributions. These parametric models are used to infer ages, star formation rates, and stellar masses for a mock data set drawn from a hierarchical semi-analytic model of galaxy evolution. Traditional parametric models generally assume an exponentially declining rate of star formation after an initial instantaneous rise. Our results show that star formation histories with a much more gradual rise in the star formation rate are likely to be better templates, and are likely to give better overall estimates of the age distribution and star formation rate distribution of Lyman break galaxies (LBGs). For B- and V-dropouts, we find the best simple parametric model to be one where the star formation rate increases linearly with time. The exponentially declining model overpredicts the age by 100% and 120% for B- and V-dropouts, on average, while for a linearly increasing model, the age is overpredicted by 9% and 16%, respectively. Similarly, the exponential model underpredicts star formation rates by 56% and 60%, while the linearly increasing model underpredicts by 15% and 22%, respectively. For U-dropouts, the models where the star formation rate has a peak (near z ∼ 3) provide the best match for age-overprediction is reduced from 110% to 26%-and star formation rate-underprediction is reduced from 58% to 22%. We classify different types of star formation histories in the semi-analytic models and show how the biases behave for the different classes. We also provide two-band calibration formulae for stellar mass and star formation rate estimations.

  18. The impact of obesity on US mortality levels: the importance of age and cohort factors in population estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masters, Ryan K; Reither, Eric N; Powers, Daniel A; Yang, Y Claire; Burger, Andrew E; Link, Bruce G

    2013-10-01

    To estimate the percentage of excess death for US Black and White men and women associated with high body mass, we examined the combined effects of age variation in the obesity-mortality relationship and cohort variation in age-specific obesity prevalence. We examined 19 National Health Interview Survey waves linked to individual National Death Index mortality records, 1986-2006, for age and cohort patterns in the population-level association between obesity and US adult mortality. The estimated percentage of adult deaths between 1986 and 2006 associated with overweight and obesity was 5.0% and 15.6% for Black and White men, and 26.8% and 21.7% for Black and White women, respectively. We found a substantially stronger association than previous research between obesity and mortality risk at older ages, and an increasing percentage of mortality attributable to obesity across birth cohorts. Previous research has likely underestimated obesity's impact on US mortality. Methods attentive to cohort variation in obesity prevalence and age variation in obesity's effect on mortality risk suggest that obesity significantly shapes US mortality levels, placing it at the forefront of concern for public health action.

  19. A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Eduardo Palhares Machado

    Full Text Available The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face-specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio-for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month. The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6-22 years old. The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson's Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices. The method described shows promising potential for forensic

  20. INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF MAYFIELD ESTIMATES USING KNOWLEDGE OF NEST AGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation will focus on the error introduced in nest-survival modeling when nest-cycles are assumed to be of constant length. I will present the types of error that may occur, including biases resulting from incorrect estimates of expected values, as well as biases that o...

  1. Estimation of genetic parameters for body weight at different ages in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of the present study is to estimate genetic parameters of birth weight (BW, n = 3005), weaning weight (WW, n = 2800), 6 months weight (6 MW, n = 2600), 9 months weight (9 MW, n = 1990) and yearling weight (YW, n = 1450) of Mehraban sheep, collected during 1995 - 2007 at Mehraban sheep Breeding ...

  2. 77 FR 4000 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-26

    ... AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates... the District of Columbia. We are providing this notice in accordance with the 1976 amendment to the Federal Election Campaign Act, Title 2, United States Code, Section 441a(e). FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...

  3. 76 FR 37314 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-27

    ... AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates... the District of Columbia. We are providing this notice in accordance with the 1976 amendment to the Federal Election Campaign Act, Title 2, United States Code, Section 441a(e). It is important to note that...

  4. 75 FR 4343 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-27

    ... AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates... the District of Columbia. We are providing this notice in accordance with the 1976 amendment to the Federal Election Campaign Act, Title 2, United States Code, Section 441a(e). FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...

  5. A Mathematical Model for Estimation of Kelp Bed Productivity: Age Dependence and Contributions of Subsurface Kelp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, S. K.; Palacios, S. L.; Zimmerman, R. C.; Kudela, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    Macrocystis pyrifera, giant kelp, is a major primary producer of the California coastal ocean that provides habitat for marine species through the formation of massive kelp beds. The estimation of primary productivity of these kelp beds is essential for a complete understanding of their health and of the biogeochemistry of the region. Current methods involve either the application of a proportionality constant to remotely sensed biomass or in situ frond density measurements. The purpose of this research was to improve upon conventional primary productivity estimates by developing a model which takes into account the spectral differences among juvenile, mature, and senescent tissues as well as the photosynthetic contributions of subsurface kelp. A modified version of a seagrass productivity model (Zimmerman 2006) was used to quantify carbon fixation. Inputs included estimates of the underwater light field as computed by solving the radiative transfer equation (with the Hydrolight(TM) software package) and biological parameters obtained from the literature. It was found that mature kelp is the most efficient primary producer, especially in light-limited environments, due to increased light absorptance. It was also found that incoming light attenuates below useful levels for photosynthesis more rapidly than has been previously accounted for in productivity estimates, with productivity dropping below half maximum at approximately 0.75 m. As a case study for comparison with the biomass method, the model was applied to Isla Vista kelp bed in Santa Barbara, using area estimates from the MODIS-ASTER Simulator (MASTER). A graphical user-interface was developed for users to provide inputs to run the kelp productivity model under varying conditions. Accurately quantifying kelp productivity is essential for understanding its interaction with offshore ecosystems as well as its contribution to the coastal carbon cycle.

  6. Mineralogy of the fraction and age estimation rubidium - strontium of the Bambui Group, MG, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonhomme, M.G.

    1976-01-01

    A study of the illite crystallinity of sediments of the Upper Precambrian Bambui Group, MG, has been done to determine the zones without metamorphism, the only ones able to give the age of the sedimentation. Only the region of Januaria escaped from any sensible thermo-tectonic event. The Bambui sediments contain well crystallized vermiculite probably formed during the anchimetamorphism. The rubidium-strontium age obtained in Januaria (619 + - 17 m.y.) corresponds in fact to the main phase of the Brazilian orogenic cycle. The late isotopic homogeneization was caused by a strong late diagenesis. The anchimetamorphic phosphateous sediments in Cedro do Abate show that the ferro-magnesian illite is a more easely open system than aluminous illite, and in this case dates the later event of the Brazilian cycle at 445 + - 25 m.y. The age of 600 m.y. for the metamorphism is a younger limit for the real age of the Bambui, the late Precambrian age of which is confirmed

  7. Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maciosek, Michael V.; Xu, Xin; Butani, Amy L.; Pechacek, Terry F.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. Method We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. Results Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35–54 years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. Conclusion Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers’ excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting. PMID:26051203

  8. Rb-Sr age estimation of granites-gneisses of Belopotokskij type (Soviet Carpathians)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepanyuk, L.M.; Kotlovskaya, F.I.; Dovbush, T.I.

    1987-01-01

    Using rubidium-strontium method the age of granito-gneisses of Belopotokskij type of 470 ± 6 mln. years, which agree with isotopic age (459 ± 6 mln. years) obtained by uranium-lead isochronous method using syngenetic zircon, is established. The latter testifies to the manifestation of magmatic activity 460-470 mln. years ago. The low initial ratio of strontium isotopes 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and results of petrographic study of fel spars are indicative of magmatic nature of initial granites and plutonic (mantle or lower crust) source of magma, crystallization of which was the beginning of the Belopotokskij type granito-gneiss formation

  9. The Solar Twin Planet Search. III. The [Y/Mg] clock: estimating stellar ages of solar-type stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucci Maia, M.; Ramírez, I.; Meléndez, J.; Bedell, M.; Bean, J. L.; Asplund, M.

    2016-05-01

    Context. Solar twins are stars with similar stellar (surface) parameters to the Sun that can have a wide range of ages. This provides an opportunity to analyze the variation of their chemical abundances with age. Nissen (2015, A&A, 579, A52) recently suggested that the abundances of the s-process element Y and the α-element Mg could be used to estimate stellar ages. Aims: This paper aims to determine with high precision the Y, Mg, and Fe abundances for a sample of 88 solar twins that span a broad age range (0.3-10.0 Gyr) and investigate their use for estimating ages. Methods: We obtained high-quality Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle (MIKE) spectra and determined Y and Mg abundances using equivalent widths and a line-by-line differential method within a 1D LTE framework. Stellar parameters and iron abundances were measured in Paper I of this series for all stars, but a few (three) required a small revision. Results: The [Y/Mg] ratio shows a strong correlation with age. It has a slope of -0.041 ± 0.001 dex/Gyr and a significance of 41σ. This is in excellent agreement with the relation first proposed by Nissen (2015). We found some outliers that turned out to be binaries where mass transfer may have enhanced the yttrium abundance. Given a precise measurement of [Y/Mg] with typical error of 0.02 dex in solar twins, our formula can be used to determine a stellar age with ~0.8 Gyr precision in the 0 to 10 Gyr range. Based on observations obtained at the Clay Magellan Telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile and at the 3.6 m Telescope at the La Silla ESO Observatory, Chile (program ID 188.C-0265).

  10. Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Focardi, Martina; Bozza, Silvia; Taroni, Franco

    2018-04-01

    Not only does the Bayesian approach offer a rational and logical environment for evidence evaluation in a forensic framework, but it also allows scientists to coherently deal with uncertainty related to a collection of multiple items of evidence, due to its flexible nature. Such flexibility might come at the expense of elevated computational complexity, which can be handled by using specific probabilistic graphical tools, namely Bayesian networks. In the current work, such probabilistic tools are used for evaluating dental evidence related to the development of third molars. A set of relevant properties characterizing the graphical models are discussed and Bayesian networks are implemented to deal with the inferential process laying beyond the estimation procedure, as well as to provide age estimates. Such properties include operationality, flexibility, coherence, transparence and sensitivity. A data sample composed of Italian subjects was employed for the analysis; results were in agreement with previous studies in terms of point estimate and age classification. The influence of the prior probability elicitation in terms of Bayesian estimate and classifies was also analyzed. Findings also supported the opportunity to take into consideration multiple teeth in the evaluative procedure, since it can be shown this results in an increased robustness towards the prior probability elicitation process, as well as in more favorable outcomes from a forensic perspective. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  11. ESTIMATES OF AGE-SPECIFIC URINARY EXCRETION RATES FOR CREATININE AMONG CHILDREN

    Science.gov (United States)

    The results of this study suggest that naïve adjustment by creatinine concentration, without consideration of the age-dependence of the physiological mechanisms controlling its excretion, may introduce sizeable error and is inappropriate when comparing metabolite concentrations a...

  12. Age-independent anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) standard deviation scores to estimate ovarian function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helden, Josef van; Weiskirchen, Ralf

    2017-06-01

    To determine single year age-specific anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) standard deviation scores (SDS) for women associated to normal ovarian function and different ovarian disorders resulting in sub- or infertility. Determination of particular year median and mean AMH values with standard deviations (SD), calculation of age-independent cut off SDS for the discrimination between normal ovarian function and ovarian disorders. Single-year-specific median, mean, and SD values have been evaluated for the Beckman Access AMH immunoassay. While the decrease of both median and mean AMH values is strongly correlated with increasing age, calculated SDS values have been shown to be age independent with the differentiation between normal ovarian function measured as occurred ovulation with sufficient luteal activity compared with hyperandrogenemic cycle disorders or anovulation associated with high AMH values and reduced ovarian activity or insufficiency associated with low AMH, respectively. These results will be helpful for the treatment of patients and the ventilation of the different reproductive options. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Estimation of age in forensic medicine using multivariate approach to image analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kucheryavskiy, Sergey V.; Belyaev, Ivan; Fominykh, Sergey

    2009-01-01

    approach based on statistical analysis of grey-level co-occurrence matrix, fractal analysis, wavelet transformation and Angle Measure Technique. Projection on latent structures regression was chosen for calibration and prediction. The method has been applied to 70 male and 63 female individuals aged from...... 21 to 93 and results were compared with traditional approach. Some important questions and problems have been raised....

  14. A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Direct measurement of red blood cell (RBC) survival in humans has improved from the original accurate but limited differential agglutination technique to the current reliable, safe, and accurate biotin method. Despite this, all of these methods are time consuming and require blood sampling over several months to determine the RBC lifespan. For situations in which RBC survival information must be obtained quickly, these methods are not suitable. With the exception of adults and infants, RBC survival has not been extensively investigated in other age groups. To address this need, we developed a novel, physiology-based mathematical model that quickly estimates RBC lifespan in healthy individuals at any age. The model is based on the assumption that the total number of RBC recirculations during the lifespan of each RBC (denoted by N max) is relatively constant for all age groups. The model was initially validated using the data from our prior infant and adult biotin-labeled red blood cell studies and then extended to the other age groups. The model generated the following estimated RBC lifespans in 2-year-old, 5-year-old, 8-year-old, and 10-year-old children: 62, 74, 82, and 86 days, respectively. We speculate that this model has useful clinical applications. For example, HbA1c testing is not reliable in identifying children with diabetes because HbA1c is directly affected by RBC lifespan. Because our model can estimate RBC lifespan in children at any age, corrections to HbA1c values based on the model-generated RBC lifespan could improve diabetes diagnosis as well as therapy in children.

  15. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  16. The transverse diameter of the chest on routine radiographs reliably estimates gestational age and weight in premature infants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, Kelly R. [University of Minnesota, Department of Radiology, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Zhang, Lei [University of Minnesota, Biostatistical Design and Analysis Center, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Seidel, Frank G. [Lucile Packard Children' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2015-08-15

    Prior to digital radiography it was possible for a radiologist to easily estimate the size of a patient on an analog film. Because variable magnification may be applied at the time of processing an image, it is now more difficult to visually estimate an infant's size on the monitor. Since gestational age and weight significantly impact the differential diagnosis of neonatal diseases and determine the expected size of kidneys or appearance of the brain by MRI or US, this information is useful to a pediatric radiologist. Although this information may be present in the electronic medical record, it is frequently not readily available to the pediatric radiologist at the time of image interpretation. To determine if there was a correlation between gestational age and weight of a premature infant with their transverse chest diameter (rib to rib) on admission chest radiographs. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, which waived informed consent. The maximum transverse chest diameter outer rib to outer rib was measured on admission portable chest radiographs of 464 patients admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) during the 2010 calendar year. Regression analysis was used to investigate the association between chest diameter and gestational age/birth weight. Quadratic term of chest diameter was used in the regression model. Chest diameter was statistically significantly associated with both gestational age (P < 0.0001) and birth weight (P < 0.0001). An infant's gestational age and birth weight can be reliably estimated by comparing a simple measurement of the transverse chest diameter on digital chest radiograph with the tables and graphs in our study. (orig.)

  17. A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Carlos Eduardo Palhares; Flores, Marta Regina Pinheiro; Lima, Laíse Nascimento Correia; Tinoco, Rachel Lima Ribeiro; Bezerra, Ana Cristina Barreto; Evison, Martin Paul; Guimarães, Marco Aurélio

    2017-01-01

    The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face—specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio)—for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month). The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil) was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6–22 years old). The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices). The method described shows promising potential for forensic applications

  18. Human dental age estimation using third molar developmental stages: does a Bayesian approach outperform regression models to discriminate between juveniles and adults?

    OpenAIRE

    Thevissen, P. W.; FIEUWS, Steffen; Willems, G.

    2010-01-01

    Dental age estimation methods based on the radiologically detected third molar developmental stages are implemented in forensic age assessments to discriminate between juveniles and adults considering the judgment of young unaccompanied asylum seekers. Accurate and unbiased age estimates combined with appropriate quantified uncertainties are the required properties for accurate forensic reporting. In this study, a subset of 910 individuals uniformly distributed in age between 16 and 22 years ...

  19. The transverse diameter of the chest on routine radiographs reliably estimates gestational age and weight in premature infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Kelly R; Zhang, Lei; Seidel, Frank G

    2015-08-01

    Prior to digital radiography it was possible for a radiologist to easily estimate the size of a patient on an analog film. Because variable magnification may be applied at the time of processing an image, it is now more difficult to visually estimate an infant's size on the monitor. Since gestational age and weight significantly impact the differential diagnosis of neonatal diseases and determine the expected size of kidneys or appearance of the brain by MRI or US, this information is useful to a pediatric radiologist. Although this information may be present in the electronic medical record, it is frequently not readily available to the pediatric radiologist at the time of image interpretation. To determine if there was a correlation between gestational age and weight of a premature infant with their transverse chest diameter (rib to rib) on admission chest radiographs. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, which waived informed consent. The maximum transverse chest diameter outer rib to outer rib was measured on admission portable chest radiographs of 464 patients admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) during the 2010 calendar year. Regression analysis was used to investigate the association between chest diameter and gestational age/birth weight. Quadratic term of chest diameter was used in the regression model. Chest diameter was statistically significantly associated with both gestational age (P chest diameter on digital chest radiograph with the tables and graphs in our study.

  20. Estimation of single-year-of-age counts of live births, fetal losses, abortions, and pregnant women for counties of Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Bismark; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-05-08

    We provide a methodology for estimating counts of single-year-of-age live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women from aggregated age-group counts. As a case study, we estimate counts for the 254 counties of Texas for the year 2010. We use interpolation to estimate counts of live-births, fetal-losses, and abortions by women of each single-year-of-age for all Texas counties. We then use these counts to estimate the numbers of pregnant women for each single-year-of-age, which were previously available only in aggregate. To support public health policy and planning, we provide single-year-of-age estimates of live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women for all Texas counties in the year 2010, as well as the estimation method source code.

  1. Are morphometrics sufficient for estimating age of pre-fledging birds in the field? A test using common terns (Sterna hirundo.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christy N Wails

    Full Text Available Age is a key component of fitness, affecting survival and reproductive capacities. Where it is not possible to study known individuals from birth, morphometrics (predominantly patterns of plumage development for birds are most often used to estimate age. Although criteria for age estimations exist for many species, the degree to which these criteria improve the precision of estimates remains to be tested, restricting their widespread acceptance. We develop a photographic tool for estimating ages of Common Tern (Sterna hirundo chicks and test it using 100 human observers of varying prior experience across four breeding colonies (three North American sites and one European site and under controlled laboratory conditions. We followed the design approach of other morphometric tools, expanding it to create a user-friendly guide (divided into six age groupings. The majority (86% of observers improved in chick-aging accuracy when using the tool by an average of 20.1% (±1.4 SE and correctly estimated 60.3% (±1.4 of chick ages. This was similar to the intrinsic aging ability of our best field observer (63.3%. Observers with limited experience showed the greatest increases in chick-aging accuracy over experienced observers who likely had established a method for estimating chick ages prior to using the tool. Even the best observers only correctly estimated ages of chicks 62.9% (±2.8 of the time in the field and 84.0% (±2.9 of the time in the lab when using the tool and typically underestimated ages. This indicates that developmental variation between individual chicks can prevent completely reliable age estimates and corroborates the few existing data that suggest that morphometric criteria fail to achieve robust levels of accuracy and may introduce error into studies that rely on them. We conclude that novel approaches for estimating age, not only morphometric criteria, must be pursued.

  2. Demirjian's stages and Cameriere's third molar maturity index to estimate legal adult age in Peruvian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quispe Lizarbe, Roselhy Juliana; Solís Adrianzén, Christian; Quezada-Márquez, Milushka Miroslava; Galić, Ivan; Cameriere, Roberto

    2017-03-01

    To compare the accuracy of Demirjian's stages (DS) and Cameriere's third molar maturity index cut-off value (I 3M age of majority on panoramic radiographs (OPTs) from the dental clinic of the Scientific University of the South (UCSUR), Lima, Peru. An observational cross-sectional study was conducted on the sample of 208 digital panoramic radiographs of patients aged 14-22years examined during 2015 in UCSUR. The left lower third molars were analyzed using Adobe Photoshop® CS6. An effectiveness of specific DS and I 3M third molar maturity index (I 3M <0.08) showed to be more accurate in discriminating adults and minors in Peruvian sample when a test with high sensitivity and specificity is required. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Age estimation of Calliphora (Diptera: Calliphoridae) larvae using cuticular hydrocarbon analysis and Artificial Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Moore, H E; Butcher, J B; Adam, C D; Day, C R; Falko, P D

    2016-01-01

    Cuticular hydrocarbons were extracted daily from the larvae of two closely related blowflies Calliphora vicina and Calliphora vomitoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae). The hydrocarbons were then analysed using Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry (GC–MS), with the aim of observing changes within their chemical profiles in order to determine the larval age. The hydrocarbons were examined daily for each species from 1 day old larvae until pupariation. The results show significant chemical changes occ...

  4. Raman spectroscopy for highly accurate estimation of the age of refrigerated porcine muscle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timinis, Constantinos; Pitris, Costas

    2016-03-01

    The high water content of meat, combined with all the nutrients it contains, make it vulnerable to spoilage at all stages of production and storage even when refrigerated at 5 °C. A non-destructive and in situ tool for meat sample testing, which could provide an accurate indication of the storage time of meat, would be very useful for the control of meat quality as well as for consumer safety. The proposed solution is based on Raman spectroscopy which is non-invasive and can be applied in situ. For the purposes of this project, 42 meat samples from 14 animals were obtained and three Raman spectra per sample were collected every two days for two weeks. The spectra were subsequently processed and the sample age was calculated using a set of linear differential equations. In addition, the samples were classified in categories corresponding to the age in 2-day steps (i.e., 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 or 14 days old), using linear discriminant analysis and cross-validation. Contrary to other studies, where the samples were simply grouped into two categories (higher or lower quality, suitable or unsuitable for human consumption, etc.), in this study, the age was predicted with a mean error of ~ 1 day (20%) or classified, in 2-day steps, with 100% accuracy. Although Raman spectroscopy has been used in the past for the analysis of meat samples, the proposed methodology has resulted in a prediction of the sample age far more accurately than any report in the literature.

  5. Age- and sex-specific estimation of dose to a normal thyroid from clinical administration of iodine-131

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-09-01

    This report describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to 131 I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In most cases, the data available consisted of the patient's age at the time of administration, the patient's sex, the quantity of activity administered, the clinically determined uptake of radioiodine by the thyroid, and the time after administration at which the uptake was determined. The model was made to conform to these data requirements by the use of age-specific estimates of the biological half-time of iodine in the thyroid and an age- and sex-dependent representation of the mass of the thyroid. Also, it was assumed that the thyroid burden was maximum at 24 hours after administration (the 131 I dose is not critically sensitive to this assumption). The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K x (exp(-μ 1 t) - exp(-μ 2 t)) μCi where μ/sub i/ = λ/sub r/ + λ/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), λ/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and the λ/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal-rate coefficients. The values of λ/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time of maximum uptake and the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). An addendum (Appendix C) extends the method to other radioiodines and gives age- and sex-dependent dose conversion factors for most isotopes

  6. The genus Cecropia: a biological clock to estimate the age of recently disturbed areas in the Neotropics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul-Camilo Zalamea

    Full Text Available Forest successional processes following disturbance take decades to play out, even in tropical forests. Nonetheless, records of vegetation change in this ecosystem are scarce, increasing the importance of the chronosequence approach to study forest recovery. However, this approach requires accurate dating of secondary forests, which until now was a difficult and/or expensive task. Cecropia is a widespread and abundant pioneer tree genus of the Neotropics. Here we propose and validate a rapid and straightforward method to estimate the age of secondary forest patches based on morphological observations of Cecropia trees. We found that Cecropia-inferred ages were highly correlated with known ages of the forest. We also demonstrate that Cecropia can be used to accurately date disturbances and propose twenty-one species distributed all over the geographical range of the genus as potential secondary forest chronometer species. Our method is limited in applicability by the maximal longevity of Cecropia individuals. Although the oldest chronosequence used in this study was 20 years old, we argue that at least for the first four decades after disturbance, the method described in this study provides very accurate estimations of secondary forest ages. The age of pioneer trees provides not only information needed to calculate the recovery of carbon stocks that would help to improve forest management, but also provides information needed to characterize the initial floristic composition and the rates of species remigration into secondary forest. Our contribution shows how successional studies can be reliably and inexpensively extended without the need to obtain forest ages based on expensive or potentially inaccurate data across the Neotropics.

  7. Estimation of physical and mental development of children of the senior pre-school age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasichnyk V.M.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In this work is conducted physical and mental development of children of the senior preschool age. In the experiment, 90 children took part in the fifth year of life, among which 55 boys and 35 girls. It is noted that the children surveyed rate the physical development of the index corresponds to level - above the average. It was determined that the parameters of the functional state of preschool age children meet the age norm. It is revealed that in determining physical performance among boys set a good level, and satisfactory in girls. It is established that the results of physical fitness of boys is slightly higher than in girls. It was found that the diagnosis of the level of mental development in children fifth year of life, the average productivity and stability of attention, visual and auditory memory, visual-imagery and visual-thinking, and perception of speech correspond to the average level, and cognitive processes such as switching and distribution attention, imagination - a low level.

  8. Estimating age composition in Alpine native populations of Austropotamobius pallipes complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Ghia

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the population structure and understanding growth patterns is crucial to manage freshwater resources and to solve fundamental questions concerning endangered species conservation. Austropotamobius pallipes (Lereboullet, 1858 species complex has been declining on a widespread basis in Europe, including Italy, but detailed data on population structure and growth are lacking. In four mountain streams populated by the species, water temperature data were collected by data-loggers. In July 2012, a total of 746 crayfish were collected at night and their length was measured. Females and males size distributions were analysed separately for each stream using Bhattacharya’s Method. Age was assigned to each length class. The mean values of the age classes were used to evaluate the growth rate of Von Bertalanffy, by the seasonalized equation. Up to six age classes were identified in two populations. Results show that three out of four populations are well-structured, and they confirm that A. pallipes complex is a K-selected species. We stress the need for long-term monitoring and the importance of obtained results in development of conservation plans of endangered crayfish.

  9. A new approach to constrain basal helium flux into aquifers for better estimation of groundwater ages by Helium 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Takuya; Sturchio, Neil C.; Chang, Hung K.; Gastmans, Didier; Araguas-Araguas, Luis J.; Jiang, Wei; Lu, Zheng-Tian; Mueller, Peter; Yokochi, Reika; Purtschert, Roland; Zongyu, Chen; Shuiming, Hu; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of groundwater age through the combined use of isotope methods and groundwater flow modelling is the common approach used for developing the required level of knowledge in the case of groundwater pumped from deep aquifers. For more than 50 years radiocarbon and tritium have been the common tools used in isotope hydrology studies to provide first estimates of groundwater age and dynamics. The half-life of carbon-14 (5730 years) and the complex geochemistry of carbon species in most environments have limited the proper characterization of groundwater flow patterns in large sedimentary basins and deep aquifers to ages more recent than about 40 000 years. Over the last years, a number of long-live radionuclides and other isotopes have been tested as more reliable age indicators by specialised laboratories. Among these methods, chlorine-36 (half-life of 300 000 yr) has been used with mixed results, mainly due to problems derived from in-situ production of this radionuclide. Uranium isotopes have also been used in a few instances, but never became a routine tool. Accumulation of helium-4 in deep groundwaters has also been proposed and used in a few instance, but one major obstacle in the 4He dating method is a difficulty in assessing a rate constant of 4He input into aquifers (namely, the entering basal 4He flux). In this context, recent breakthrough developments in analytical methods allow the precise determination of dissolved noble gases in groundwater as well as trace-level noble gas radionuclides present in very old groundwaters. Atom trap trace analysis, or ATTA, has dramatically improved over the last years the processing of very small amount of noble gases, providing now real possibilities for routine measurements of extremely low concentration of exotic radionuclides dissolved in groundwater, such as krypton-81 (half-life 229 000 years). Atom trap trace analysis involves the selective capture of individual atoms of a given isotope using six laser

  10. Forensic age estimation based on magnetic resonance imaging of third molars: converting 2D staging into 3D staging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, Jannick; Hillewig, Elke; Verstraete, Koenraad

    2017-03-01

    Established methods to stage development of third molars for forensic age estimation are based on the evaluation of radiographs, which show a 2D projection. It has not been investigated whether these methods require any adjustments in order to apply them to stage third molars on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which shows 3D information. To prospectively study root stage assessment of third molars in age estimation using 3 Tesla MRI and to compare this with panoramic radiographs, in order to provide considerations for converting 2D staging into 3D staging and to determine the decisive root. All third molars were evaluated in 52 healthy participants aged 14-26 years using MRI in three planes. Three staging methods were investigated by two observers. In sixteen of the participants, MRI findings were compared with findings on panoramic radiographs. Decisive roots were palatal in upper third molars and distal in lower third molars. Fifty-seven per cent of upper third molars were not assessable on the radiograph, while 96.9% were on MRI. Upper third molars were more difficult to evaluate on radiographs than on MRI (p third molars were equally assessable on both imaging techniques (93.8% MRI, 98.4% radiograph), with no difference in level of difficulty (p = .375). Inter- and intra-observer agreement for evaluation was higher in MRI than in radiographs. In both imaging techniques lower third molars showed greater inter- and intra-observer agreement compared to upper third molars. MR images in the sagittal plane proved to be essential for staging. In age estimation, 3T MRI of third molars could be valuable. Some considerations are, however, necessary to transfer known staging methods to this 3D technique.

  11. Inter-lab comparison of precision and recommended methods for age estimation of Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris using growth layer groups in earbones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Brill

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Manatees are routinely aged by counting Growth Layer Groups (GLGs in periotic bones (earbones. Manatee carcasses recovered in Florida between 1974 and 2010 provided age-estimation material for three readers and formed the base for a retrospective analysis of aging precision (repeatability. All readers were in good agreement (high precision with the greatest apparent source of variation being the result of earbone remodelling with increasing manatee age. Over the same period, methods of sample preparation and of determining a final age estimate changed. We examined the effects of altering methods on ease of reading GLGs and found no statistical differences. Accurate age estimates are an important component for effective management of the species and for better models of population trends and we summarize the currently recommended methods for estimating manatee ages using earbones.

  12. New models for age estimation and assessment of their accuracy using developing mandibular third molar teeth in a Thai population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duangto, P; Iamaroon, A; Prasitwattanaseree, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P; Janhom, A

    2017-03-01

    Age estimation using developing third molar teeth is considered an important and accurate technique for both clinical and forensic practices. The aims of this study were to establish population-specific reference data, to develop age prediction models using mandibular third molar development, to test the accuracy of the resulting models, and to find the probability of persons being at the age thresholds of legal relevance in a Thai population. A total of 1867 digital panoramic radiographs of Thai individuals aged between 8 and 23 years was selected to assess dental age. The mandibular third molar development was divided into nine stages. The stages were evaluated and each stage was transformed into a development score. Quadratic regression was employed to develop age prediction models. Our results show that males reached mandibular third molar root formation stages earlier than females. The models revealed a high correlation coefficient for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (R = 0.945 and 0.944 in males, R = 0.922 and 0.923 in females, respectively). Furthermore, the accuracy of the resulting models was tested in randomly selected 374 cases and showed low error values between the predicted dental age and the chronological age for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (-0.13 and -0.17 years in males, 0.01 and 0.03 years in females, respectively). In Thai samples, when the mandibular third molar teeth reached stage H, the probability of the person being over 18 years was 100 % in both sexes.

  13. Estimation of the geological age of oceanic basalts by track method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komarov, A.N.; Krylov, A.Ya.

    1977-01-01

    The method is described of the determination of the thermostability of tracks applied to oceanic basalts and the comparison is carried out of age values obtained for the same samples by the track method and by the potassium-argon method. The obtained results allow to consider that the track method is quite practicable for the dating of oceanic basalts on the condition that natural annealing of a part of tracks of the spontaneous uranium fission is taken into accout. For glasses of the other origin - tektites - such approach results in the agreement of the obtained values with the results of potassium-argon method

  14. The use of otolith microstructure to estimate age in adult Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hüssy, Karin; Hinrichsen, H.H.; Fey, D.P.

    2010-01-01

    a distinct pattern with increasing distance from the primary primordium. A series of zones with clearly distinguishable increments, first with increasing then with decreasing widths in a dome-shaped pattern, were separated by zones where no regular increment structure was visible. Increment width seemed...... to be tightly coupled to the annual cycle in environmental temperature at a depth of 30–60 m, where G. morhua predominantly reside. Between 135 and 200 increments occurred within the different zones, with a non-significant trend towards lower increment numbers and widths with distance from the primary...... primordium of the otolith. Increment formation apparently ceased at temperatures C, but growth during the cold months corresponded closely with estimated growth rates. The increment patterns seemed to reflect annual cycles in environmental temperature, and the count of the increment cycles may thus...

  15. Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2011-01-01

    Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

  16. Validation of accelerated ageing of Thales rotary Stirling cryocoolers for the estimation of MTTF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seguineau, C.,; Cauquil, J.-M.; Martin, J.-Y.; Benschop, T.

    2016-05-01

    The cooled IR detectors are used in a wide range of applications. Most of the time, the cryocoolers are one of the components dimensioning the lifetime of the system. The current market needs tend to reliability figures higher than 15,000hrs in "standard conditions". Field returns are hardly useable mostly because of the uncertain environmental conditions of use, or the differences in user profiles. A previous paper explains how Thales Cryogenics has developed an approach based on accelerated ageing and statistical analysis [1]. The aim of the current paper is to compare results obtained on accelerated ageing on one side, and on the other side, specific field returns where the conditions of use are well known. The comparison between prediction and effective failure rate is discussed. Moreover, a specific focus is done on how some new applications of cryocoolers (continuous operation at a specific temperature) can increase the MTTF. Some assumptions are also exposed on how the failure modes, effects and criticality analysis evolves for continuous operation at a specific temperature and compared to experimental data.

  17. Estimated cases of blindness and visual impairment from neovascular age-related macular degeneration avoided in Australia by ranibizumab treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Paul; Bressler, Neil; Doan, Quan V; Dolan, Chantal; Ferreira, Alberto; Osborne, Aaron; Rochtchina, Elena; Danese, Mark; Colman, Shoshana; Wong, Tien Y

    2014-01-01

    Intravitreal injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents, such as ranibizumab, have significantly improved the management of neovascular age-related macular degeneration. This study used patient-level simulation modelling to estimate the number of individuals in Australia who would have been likely to avoid legal blindness or visual impairment due to neovascular age-related macular degeneration over a 2-year period as a result of intravitreal ranibizumab injections. The modelling approach used existing data for the incidence of neovascular age-related macular degeneration in Australia and outcomes from ranibizumab trials. Blindness and visual impairment were defined as visual acuity in the better-seeing eye of worse than 6/60 or 6/12, respectively. In 2010, 14,634 individuals in Australia were estimated to develop neovascular age-related macular degeneration who would be eligible for ranibizumab therapy. Without treatment, 2246 individuals would become legally blind over 2 years. Monthly 0.5 mg intravitreal ranibizumab would reduce incident blindness by 72% (95% simulation interval, 70-74%). Ranibizumab given as needed would reduce incident blindness by 68% (64-71%). Without treatment, 4846 individuals would become visually impaired over 2 years; this proportion would be reduced by 37% (34-39%) with monthly intravitreal ranibizumab, and by 28% (23-33%) with ranibizumab given as needed. These data suggest that intravitreal injections of ranibizumab, given either monthly or as needed, can substantially lower the number of cases of blindness and visual impairment over 2 years after the diagnosis of neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

  18. Use of multiple age tracers to estimate groundwater residence times and long-term recharge rates in arid southern Oman

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Müller, Th.; Osenbrück, K.; Strauch, G.; Pavetich, S.; Al-Mashaikhi, K.-S.; Herb, C.; Merchel, S.; Rugel, G.; Aeschbach, W.; Sanford, W.

    2016-01-01

    Multiple age tracers were measured to estimate groundwater residence times in the regional aquifer system underlying southwestern Oman. This area, known as the Najd, is one of the most arid areas in the world and is planned to be the main agricultural center of the Sultanate of Oman in the near future. The three isotopic age tracers "4He, "1"4C and "3"6Cl were measured in waters collected from wells along a line that extended roughly from the Dhofar Mountains near the Arabian Sea northward 400 km into the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Peninsula. The wells sampled were mostly open to the Umm Er Radhuma confined aquifer, although, some were completed in the mostly unconfined Rus aquifer. The combined results from the three tracers indicate the age of the confined groundwater is  100 ka in the central section north of the mountains, and up to and > one Ma in the Empty Quarter. The "1"4C data were used to help calibrate the "4He and "3"6Cl data. Mixing models suggest that long open boreholes north of the mountains compromise "1"4C-only interpretations there, in contrast to "4He and "3"6Cl calculations that are less sensitive to borehole mixing. Thus, only the latter two tracers from these more distant wells were considered reliable. In addition to the age tracers, δ"2H and δ"1"8O data suggest that seasonal monsoon and infrequent tropical cyclones are both substantial contributors to the recharge. The study highlights the advantages of using multiple chemical and isotopic data when estimating groundwater travel times and recharge rates, and differentiating recharge mechanisms. - Highlights: • Multiple age tracers are required for the interpretation of the groundwater system. • Different tracers are applicable along different sections of the flowpath. • Groundwater residence times >1 Ma have been determined for the northern Najd area.

  19. The Effects of the Refugee Crisis on Age Estimation Analysis over the Past 10 Years: A 16-Country Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sykes, Leanne; Bhayat, Ahmed; Bernitz, Herman

    2017-06-13

    Dental age estimation (AE) tests are routinely done on living and deceased persons. There is anecdotal evidence suggesting an increase in age estimations due to the refugee crisis. Our aim is to determine the reasons and methods for performing dental AE tests in both living and deceased individuals. Global trends in AE over the past 10 years were also investigated. A database of all forensic laboratories was obtained and an electronic questionnaire was sent to all of them. The questionnaire was self-developed and included questions on the reasons for performing AE tests, the preferred methods used in living and deceased individuals, and the people/organizations who requested these AE tests. The number of tests performed annually varied between 0 and 500 and the majority were on asylum seekers, refugees, and for adoption cases. Most units used multiple techniques to determine the age among the living, but seldom used more than three techniques for the deceased. The majority of tests were requested by coroners and the legal fraternity. There has been an increase in the number of dental AEs carried out and this has been mostly due to asylum seekers and refugees. The most common techniques for the living were variations of Demirjian's technique while country specific techniques were used for the deceased.

  20. The Effects of the Refugee Crisis on Age Estimation Analysis over the Past 10 Years: A 16-Country Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leanne Sykes

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Dental age estimation (AE tests are routinely done on living and deceased persons. There is anecdotal evidence suggesting an increase in age estimations due to the refugee crisis. Our aim is to determine the reasons and methods for performing dental AE tests in both living and deceased individuals. Global trends in AE over the past 10 years were also investigated. A database of all forensic laboratories was obtained and an electronic questionnaire was sent to all of them. The questionnaire was self-developed and included questions on the reasons for performing AE tests, the preferred methods used in living and deceased individuals, and the people/organizations who requested these AE tests. The number of tests performed annually varied between 0 and 500 and the majority were on asylum seekers, refugees, and for adoption cases. Most units used multiple techniques to determine the age among the living, but seldom used more than three techniques for the deceased. The majority of tests were requested by coroners and the legal fraternity. There has been an increase in the number of dental AEs carried out and this has been mostly due to asylum seekers and refugees. The most common techniques for the living were variations of Demirjian’s technique while country specific techniques were used for the deceased.

  1. Long-Term Movement and Estimated Age of a Paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) in the Arkansas River Basin of Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, James M.

    2018-01-01

    We report the age and distance moved for an individual paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) that was tagged March 1998 in the Cimarron River Arm of Keystone Lake, Oklahoma, and snagged by an angler in April 2016 downstream of Eufaula Dam, Oklahoma. The fish was part of a cohort spawned in 1995. At the time of initial capture, the fish measured 795 mm eye–fork length, was estimated to be 3 y old, and 18 y had elapsed before its recapture by an angler in 2016, indicating this fish was 21 y old at recapture. Although paddlefish as old as 27 have been estimated in the Grand River basin of Oklahoma, this is the oldest fish known in the Arkansas River basin of Oklahoma. At the place of its recapture, this fish would have traveled approximately 235 km, passing downstream through three dams before moving upstream to Eufaula Dam.

  2. Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... adults? How can you reduce anesthesia risks in older patients? Age Age may bring wisdom but it also brings ... Ask your physician to conduct a pre-surgery cognitive test — an assessment of your mental function. The physician can use the results as a ...

  3. A study on the improvement of age estimation in common minke whales using the method of gelatinized extraction of earplug

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hikari Maeda

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We attempted to settle the potential problems of bias caused by too soft earplugs and poor formation of the growth layers in age readings of common minke whales. Thus, we examined the feasibility of a new technique of incorporating gelatin in order to collect earplugs for age assessment. Frozen sectioning and histology of the earplug core were also used as methods to improve age estimation. Earplugs were collected by filling the space in the external auditory meatus with gelatin, hardening the gelatin, earplug and its fragments, by spraying with cooling gas, and removing the earplug embedded in gelatin. In 174 trials with common minke whales in the Western North Pacific of coastal waters of Japan in 2007–2009, it was revealed that embedding earplugs with gelatin minimized breakage and protected the neonatal line (NL. This method was particularly effective in younger animals. As a result, the readability was improved. We also examined the histological sections, which were sliced using the Kawamoto specialized frozen sectioning technique, and stained them separately with toluidine blue, haematoxylin and eosin, Sudan III, Sudan VII, and alizarin red S to display a clearer core surface image of the growth layers. The histological sections stained with alizarin red S provided the clearest images, in which we could easily identify both dark and pale laminations. This suggested a close relationship with the seasonal changes in calcium intake from feeding. Earlier age estimation methods focused on fat content in the growth layers; however, we found potential for an improvement in the readability of unclear growth layers when focusing on calcium.

  4. Use of multiple age tracers to estimate groundwater residence times and long-term recharge rates in arid southern Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Th.; Osenbrück, K.; Strauch, G.; Pavetich, S.; Al-Mashaikhi, K.-S.; Herb, C.; Merchel, S.; Rugel, G.; Aeschbach, W.; Sanford, Ward E.

    2016-01-01

    Multiple age tracers were measured to estimate groundwater residence times in the regional aquifer system underlying southwestern Oman. This area, known as the Najd, is one of the most arid areas in the world and is planned to be the main agricultural center of the Sultanate of Oman in the near future. The three isotopic age tracers 4He, 14C and 36Cl were measured in waters collected from wells along a line that extended roughly from the Dhofar Mountains near the Arabian Sea northward 400 km into the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Peninsula. The wells sampled were mostly open to the Umm Er Radhuma confined aquifer, although, some were completed in the mostly unconfined Rus aquifer. The combined results from the three tracers indicate the age of the confined groundwater is  100 ka in the central section north of the mountains, and up to and > one Ma in the Empty Quarter. The 14C data were used to help calibrate the 4He and 36Cl data. Mixing models suggest that long open boreholes north of the mountains compromise 14C-only interpretations there, in contrast to 4He and 36Cl calculations that are less sensitive to borehole mixing. Thus, only the latter two tracers from these more distant wells were considered reliable. In addition to the age tracers, δ2H and δ18O data suggest that seasonal monsoon and infrequent tropical cyclones are both substantial contributors to the recharge. The study highlights the advantages of using multiple chemical and isotopic data when estimating groundwater travel times and recharge rates, and differentiating recharge mechanisms.

  5. Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Background During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On

  6. PREDICTIVE ACCURACY OF TRANSCEREBELLAR DIAMETER IN COMPARISON WITH OTHER FOETAL BIOMETRIC PARAMETERS FOR GESTATIONAL AGE ESTIMATION AMONG PREGNANT NIGERIAN WOMEN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeyekun, A A; Orji, M O

    2014-04-01

    To compare the predictive accuracy of foetal trans-cerebellar diameter (TCD) with those of other biometric parameters in the estimation of gestational age (GA). A cross-sectional study. The University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Nigeria. Four hundred and fifty healthy singleton pregnant women, between 14-42 weeks gestation. Trans-cerebellar diameter (TCD), biparietal diameter (BPD), femur length (FL), abdominal circumference (AC) values across the gestational age range studied. Correlation and predictive values of TCD compared to those of other biometric parameters. The range of values for TCD was 11.9 - 59.7mm (mean = 34.2 ± 14.1mm). TCD correlated more significantly with menstrual age compared with other biometric parameters (r = 0.984, p = 0.000). TCD had a higher predictive accuracy of 96.9% ± 12 days), BPD (93.8% ± 14.1 days). AC (92.7% ± 15.3 days). TCD has a stronger predictive accuracy for gestational age compared to other routinely used foetal biometric parameters among Nigerian Africans.

  7. Relationship between ultrasound estimated fetal gestational age and cerebellar appearance in healthy pregnant Nigerian women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeyekun, Ademola A; Orji, Michael O

    2015-01-01

    Fetal biometry by ultrasound provides reliable and important information about fetal growth and wellbeing. Evaluation of the fetal posterior fossa is useful in the assessment of neural tube-defects. Studies on normal ultrasound fetal cerebellar appearance and diameter across gestational age (GA) are scanty in the Nigerian medical literature. This study was carried out to study normal fetal cerebellar appearance and diameter at various GAs among healthy pregnant Nigerian Africans. This was a prospective study of 450 healthy singleton pregnant women between 13 and 42 weeks gestation. A curvilinear probe with a 3.5 MHz transducer of a SonoAce X6 (Medison Inc., Korea 2010) scanner was used to assess fetal transcerebellar diameter (TCD) and appearance. GA was also determined using fetal biometric parameters such as the biparietal diameter, femur length, and abdominal circumference. Fetal cerebellar appearance was correlated against GA. The cerebellar appearance was graded into: Grade I: 164 fetuses (36.4%), Grade II; 102 fetuses (22.7%) and Grade III: 184 fetuses (40.9%). Mean GA and TCD was 21 weeks and 21.2 mm for Grade I; 28 weeks and 32.6 mm for Grade II; and 35 weeks and 47.1 mm for Grade III. There was significance difference among the cerebellar grades at the GA groups and transverse cerebellar diameter (P < 0.000). There is a gradual and steady change in ultrasonographic appearance of the fetal cerebellar and diameter appearance with advancing gestation. The changes ranged from anechoic, "pair of eye glass" appearance at second trimester to relatively echogenic, "dumb-bell" appearance at early third trimester, and solid, "fan-shape" in late third trimester.

  8. Aging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Hideo; Kodama, Kazunori; Yamada, Michiko

    1991-01-01

    The hypothesis that exposure to ionizing radiation accelerates the aging process has been actively investigated at ABCC-RERF since 1958, when longitudinal cohort studies of the Adult Health Study (AHS) and the Life Span Study (LSS) were initiated. In their 1975 overall review of aging studies related to the atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors, Finch and Beebe concluded that while most studies had shown no correlation between aging and radiation exposure, they had not involved the large numbers of subjects required to provide strong evidence for or against the hypothesis. Extending LSS mortality data up to 1978 did not alter the earlier conclusion that any observed life-shortening was associated primarily with cancer induction rather than with any nonspecific cause. The results of aging studies conducted during the intervening 15 years using data from the same populations are reviewed in the present paper. Using clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory techniques, a broad spectrum of aging parameters have been studied, such as postmortem morphological changes, tests of functional capacity, physical tests and measurements, laboratory tests, tissue changes, and morbidity. With respect to the aging process, the overall results have not been consistent and are generally thought to show no relation to radiation exposure. Although some preliminary results suggest a possible radiation-induced increase in atherosclerotic diseases and acceleration of aging in the T-cell-related immune system, further study is necessary to confirm these findings. In the future, applying the latest gerontological study techniques to data collected from subjects exposed 45 years ago to A-bomb radiation at relatively young ages will present a new body of data relevant to the study of late radiation effects. (author) 103 refs

  9. Aging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finch, S.C.; Beebe, G.W.

    1975-01-01

    The hypothesis that ionizing radiation accelerates natural aging has been under investigation at the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission since 1959. Postmortem observations of morphologic and chemical changes, tests of functional capacity, physical tests and measurements, clinical laboratory tests, tissue changes, morbidity, and mortality have all been examined by ABCC investigators interested in this hypothesis. These studies have been beset with conceptual difficulties centered on the definition and measurement of aging. An empirical approach early led to the calculation of an index of physiologic age as a linear combination of age-related tests of various organ systems. Most studies have been negative but have not involved the large numbers that might be required to provide strong evidence for or against the hypothesis. Mortality, however, has been examined on the basis of a large sample and over the period 1950-1972 had provided no support for the hypothesis of radiation-accelerated aging. Ionizing radiation dose, of course shorten human life, but its life-shortening effect appears to be the result of specific radiation-induced disease, especially neoplasms. The hypothesis is now much less attractive than it was 10-20 years ago but still has some value in stimulating research on aging. The experience of the A-bomb survivors provides an unusual opportunity for a definitive test of the hypothesis. (auth.)

  10. Growth process in an elephant tusk: Age estimations based on temporal variations in bomb-radiocarbon content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Toshio, E-mail: nakamura@nendai.nagoya-u.ac.jp [Center for Chronological Research, Nagoya University, Chikusa, Nagoya, Aichi 464-8602 (Japan); Koike, Hiroko [Kyushu University Museum, Kyushu University, Hakozaki, Fukuoka, Fukuoka 814-0180 (Japan); Aizawa, Jun; Okuno, Mitsuru [Department of Earth System Science, Faculty of Science, Fukuoka University, 8-19-1 Nanakuma, Jonan-ku, Fukuoka, Fukuoka 814-0180 (Japan)

    2015-10-15

    In this study, {sup 14}C analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was applied to age estimation based on temporal variations in bomb-produced-{sup 14}C contents of a full elephant tusk registered at Kyushu University. The tusk measured 175 cm long and 13.8 cm in diameter at the root. Thirty tusk-fragment samples were used for {sup 14}C analysis with AMS to estimate the formation ages of different positions according to catalogued global {sup 14}C contents (F{sup 14}C). The F{sup 14}C value of the tip of the tusk suggested that the elephant was born around 1980, while that of the root suggested death around 1994, a lifespan of at least 14 years, rather shorter period than the average lifetime of an elephant (ca. 80 years). In addition, the F{sup 14}C values of fragments collected along a cross-sectional line suggested that the outer part of the tusk formed first with inner parts being deposited gradually with growth.

  11. Growth process in an elephant tusk: Age estimations based on temporal variations in bomb-radiocarbon content

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Toshio; Koike, Hiroko; Aizawa, Jun; Okuno, Mitsuru

    2015-01-01

    In this study, "1"4C analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was applied to age estimation based on temporal variations in bomb-produced-"1"4C contents of a full elephant tusk registered at Kyushu University. The tusk measured 175 cm long and 13.8 cm in diameter at the root. Thirty tusk-fragment samples were used for "1"4C analysis with AMS to estimate the formation ages of different positions according to catalogued global "1"4C contents (F"1"4C). The F"1"4C value of the tip of the tusk suggested that the elephant was born around 1980, while that of the root suggested death around 1994, a lifespan of at least 14 years, rather shorter period than the average lifetime of an elephant (ca. 80 years). In addition, the F"1"4C values of fragments collected along a cross-sectional line suggested that the outer part of the tusk formed first with inner parts being deposited gradually with growth.

  12. An automated technique to stage lower third molar development on panoramic radiographs for age estimation: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, J; Radesh, P; Vandermeulen, D; Thevissen, P W

    2017-12-01

    Automated methods to evaluate growth of hand and wrist bones on radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging have been developed. They can be applied to estimate age in children and subadults. Automated methods require the software to (1) recognise the region of interest in the image(s), (2) evaluate the degree of development and (3) correlate this to the age of the subject based on a reference population. For age estimation based on third molars an automated method for step (1) has been presented for 3D magnetic resonance imaging and is currently being optimised (Unterpirker et al. 2015). To develop an automated method for step (2) based on lower third molars on panoramic radiographs. A modified Demirjian staging technique including ten developmental stages was developed. Twenty panoramic radiographs per stage per gender were retrospectively selected for FDI element 38. Two observers decided in consensus about the stages. When necessary, a third observer acted as a referee to establish the reference stage for the considered third molar. This set of radiographs was used as training data for machine learning algorithms for automated staging. First, image contrast settings were optimised to evaluate the third molar of interest and a rectangular bounding box was placed around it in a standardised way using Adobe Photoshop CC 2017 software. This bounding box indicated the region of interest for the next step. Second, several machine learning algorithms available in MATLAB R2017a software were applied for automated stage recognition. Third, the classification performance was evaluated in a 5-fold cross-validation scenario, using different validation metrics (accuracy, Rank-N recognition rate, mean absolute difference, linear kappa coefficient). Transfer Learning as a type of Deep Learning Convolutional Neural Network approach outperformed all other tested approaches. Mean accuracy equalled 0.51, mean absolute difference was 0.6 stages and mean linearly weighted kappa was

  13. Functional Time Series Models to Estimate Future Age-Specific Breast Cancer Incidence Rates for Women in Karachi, Pakistan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farah Yasmeen[1; Sidra Zaheer[2

    2014-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighboring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the highest recorded rate in Asia. The carcinoma of breast in Pakistan is an enormous public health concern. In this study, we examined the recent trends of breast cancer incidence rates among the women in Karachi. Methods: We obtained the secondary data of breast cancer incidence from various hospitals. They included Jinnah Hospital, KIRAN (Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine), and Civil hospital, where the data were available for the years 2004-2011. A total of 5331 new cases of female breast cancer were registered during this period. We analyzed the data in 5-year age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75+. Nonparametric smoothing were used to obtained age-specific incidence curves, and then the curves are decomposed using principal components analysis to fit FTS (functional time series) model. We then used exponential smoothing statspace models to estimate the forecasts of incidence curve and construct prediction intervals. Results: The breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi increased with age for all available years. The rates increased monotonically and are relatively sharp with the age from 15 years to 50 years and then they show variability after the age of 50 years. 10-year forecasts for the female breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi show that the future rates are expected to remain stable for the age-groups 15-50 years, but they will increase for the females of 50-years and over. Hence in future, the newly diagnosed breast cancer cases in the older women in Karachi are expected to increase. Conclusion: Prediction of age

  14. New age data and geothermobarometric estimates from the Apuseni Mountains (Romania); evidence for Cretaceous amphibolite-facies metamorphism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiser, Martin; Schuster, Ralf; Spikings, Richard; Tropper, Peter; Fügenschuh, Bernhard

    2014-05-01

    New Ar-Ar ms, Rb-Sr bt and Sm-Nd grt age data in combination with microprobe analyses and structural data from the Apuseni Mountains provide new constraints for the tectonic evolution of the Tisza and Dacia Mega-Units during the Late Jurassic-Late Cretaceous time interval, which is of special importance for the present day arrangement of tectonic units in the Alpine-Carpathian-Dinaridic region. Late Jurassic obduction of Transylvanian Ophiolites (155 Ma) partially reset Ar-Ar ms ages at the top of the Biharia Nappe System in the Dacia Mega-Unit. New Sm-Nd grt ages and P-T estimates yielded amphibolite-facies conditions of 500°C and about 0.8 GPa during the Early Cretaceous (125 Ma Sm-Nd age) for the Dacia Mega-Unit and during late Early Cretaceous times (104 Ma Sm-Nd age) for the Tisza Mega-Unit. This implies that not only the Dacia Mega-Unit, but also the Tisza Mega-Unit experienced a strong regional metamorphic overprint accompanying Alpine deformation. New 95 Ma Ar-Ar ms and 81 Ma Rb-Sr bt ages from the Bihor Nappe (Tisza Mega-Unit), in combination with fission track ages constrain rapid cooling of more than 20°C/Ma after the thermal maximum. The amplitude of cooling corresponds to data from the Dacia Mega-Unit, which started cooling 20 Ma earlier, but at a rate of only about 12°C/Ma. Kinematic indicators and stretching lineations show NE-directed, in-sequence nappe stacking for the Tisza and Dacia Mega-Units during "Austrian Phase" deformation (125-100 Ma). Following the Austrian Phase, the Dacia Mega-Unit was thrust over the Tisza Mega-Unit during the Turonian Phase (93-89 Ma). Constrained through NW-directed kinematic indicators and 94-80 Ma Rb-Sr bt ages, this tectonic phase is responsible for a pervasive retrograde greenschist-facies overprint and the geometry of the present-day nappe stack in the Apuseni Mountains.

  15. Development of a Reference Data Set (RDS) for dental age estimation (DAE) and testing of this with a separate Validation Set (VS) in a southern Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayaraman, Jayakumar; Wong, Hai Ming; King, Nigel M; Roberts, Graham J

    2016-10-01

    Many countries have recently experienced a rapid increase in the demand for forensic age estimates of unaccompanied minors. Hong Kong is a major tourist and business center where there has been an increase in the number of people intercepted with false travel documents. An accurate estimation of age is only possible when a dataset for age estimation that has been derived from the corresponding ethnic population. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop and validate a Reference Data Set (RDS) for dental age estimation for southern Chinese. A total of 2306 subjects were selected from the patient archives of a large dental hospital and the chronological age for each subject was recorded. This age was assigned to each specific stage of dental development for each tooth to create a RDS. To validate this RDS, a further 484 subjects were randomly chosen from the patient archives and their dental age was assessed based on the scores from the RDS. Dental age was estimated using meta-analysis command corresponding to random effects statistical model. Chronological age (CA) and Dental Age (DA) were compared using the paired t-test. The overall difference between the chronological and dental age (CA-DA) was 0.05 years (2.6 weeks) for males and 0.03 years (1.6 weeks) for females. The paired t-test indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the chronological and dental age (p > 0.05). The validated southern Chinese reference dataset based on dental maturation accurately estimated the chronological age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  16. Age estimation of juvenile European hake Merluccius merluccius based on otolith microstructure analysis: a slow or fast growth pattern?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattoura, P; Lefkaditou, E; Megalofonou, P

    2015-03-01

    The main goal of this study was to examine otolith microstructure and to estimate the age and growth of European hake Merluccius merluccius from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. One hundred and twenty-nine specimens ranging from 102 to 438 mm in total length (LT ) were used. Age estimations were based on the study of the otolith microstructure, which was revealed after grinding both frontal sides of otoliths. The enumerations of the daily growth increments (DGI) as well as their width (WDGI ) measurements were made on calibrated digital images. The number of DGI in otoliths ranged between 163 and 717. Four phases in the WDGI evolution were distinguished: (1) larval-juvenile pelagic phase, with an increasing trend in WDGI up to the 60th DGI, (2) settlement phase, with a short-term deceleration in WDGI between the 61st and 150th DGI, (3) juvenile demersal phase, characterized by a stabilization of WDGI from 151st to 400th DGI and (4) adult phase, with a decreasing trend in WDGI after the 400th DGI. Age, sex and month of formation were found to affect the WDGI in all phases, with the exception of age at the juvenile demersal phase. The power curve with intercept model described best the relationship of M. merluccius LT with age (TDGI ), according to Akaike criteria, revealing differences in growth between females [LT = 65 · 36(TDGI )(0 · 40) - 388 · 55] and males [LT = 69 · 32(TDGI )(0 · 37) - 352 · 88] for the sizes examined. The mean daily growth rates were 0·61 mm day(-1) for females and 0·52 mm day(-1) for males, resulting in an LT of 283 and 265 mm at the end of their first year of life. In comparison with previous studies on the Mediterranean Sea, the results of this study showed a greater growth rate, similar to results from tagging experiments and otolith microstructure analyses for M. merluccius in other geographic areas. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  17. Age- and sex-specific reference limits for creatinine, cystatin C and the estimated glomerular filtration rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannemann, Anke; Friedrich, Nele; Dittmann, Kathleen; Spielhagen, Christin; Wallaschofski, Henri; Völzke, Henry; Rettig, Rainer; Endlich, Karlhans; Lendeckel, Uwe; Stracke, Sylvia; Nauck, Matthias

    2011-11-14

    Early detection of patients with chronic kidney disease is of great importance. This study developed reference limits for serum creatinine and serum cystatin C concentrations and for the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in healthy subjects from the general population aged 25-65 years. This study defined a reference population including 985 subjects from the first follow-up of the Study of Health in Pomerania. Serum creatinine was measured with a modified kinetic Jaffé method. Serum cystatin C was measured with a nephelometric assay. The eGFR was calculated from serum creatinine according to the Cockcroft-Gault (eGFR(CG)) and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (eGFR(MDRD)) equation, respectively, as well as from serum cystatin C according to the formula by Larsson (eGFR(Larsson)). Non-parametric quantile regression was used to estimate the reference limits. For serum creatinine and serum cystatin C the 95th percentile and for eGFR(CG), eGFR(MDRD) and eGFR(Larsson) the 5th percentile were selected as reference limits. All data was weighted to reflect the age- and sex-structure of the German population in 2008. The reference limits for serum creatinine (men: 1.11-1.23 mg/dL; women: 0.93-1.00 mg/dL) and serum cystatin C levels (men: 0.92-1.04 mg/L; women: 0.84-1.02 mg/L) increased with advancing age. The reference limits for eGFR decreased with increasing age (eGFR(CG) men: 106.0-64.7 mL/min, women 84.4-57.9 mL/min; eGFR(MDRD) men: 82.5-62.2 mL/min/1.73 m², women 75.0-58.2 mL/min/1.73 m²; eGFR(Larsson) men: 85.5-72.9 mL/min, women 94.5-75.7 mL/min). This study presents age- and sex-specific reference limits for five measures of renal function based on quantile regression models.

  18. Estimating global, regional and national rotavirus deaths in children aged <5 years: Current approaches, new analyses and proposed improvements.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Clark

    Full Text Available Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in children but there is considerable disagreement about how many deaths occur each year.We compared CHERG, GBD and WHO/CDC estimates of age under 5 years (U5 rotavirus deaths at the global, regional and national level using a standard year (2013 and standard list of 186 countries. The global estimates were 157,398 (CHERG, 122,322 (GBD and 215,757 (WHO/CDC. The three groups used different methods: (i to select data points for rotavirus-positive proportions; (ii to extrapolate data points to individual countries; (iii to account for rotavirus vaccine coverage; (iv to convert rotavirus-positive proportions to rotavirus attributable fractions; and (v to calculate uncertainty ranges. We conducted new analyses to inform future estimates. We found that acute watery diarrhoea was associated with 87% (95% CI 83-90% of U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations based on data from 84 hospital sites in 9 countries, and 65% (95% CI 57-74% of U5 diarrhoea deaths based on verbal autopsy reports from 9 country sites. We reanalysed data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS and found 44% (55% in Asia, and 32% in Africa rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea hospitalisations, and 28% rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea deaths. 97% (95% CI 95-98% of the U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations that tested positive for rotavirus were entirely attributable to rotavirus. For all clinical syndromes combined the rotavirus attributable fraction was 34% (95% CI 31-36%. This increased by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI 1.02-1.14 when the GEMS results were reanalysed using a more sensitive molecular test.We developed consensus on seven proposals for improving the quality and transparency of future rotavirus mortality estimates.

  19. Health system costs by sex, age and proximity to death, and implications for estimation of future expenditure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakely, Tony; Atkinson, June; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Nghiem, Nhung; McLeod, Heather; Wilson, Nick

    2014-05-02

    Health expenditure increases with age, but some of this increase is due to costs proximal to death. We used linked health datasets (HealthTracker) to determine health expenditure by proximity to death. We then determined the impact on future health expenditure projections of accounting for proximity to death in costs. 2007 to 2009 national health event data were linked for hospitalisations, inpatient procedures, outpatient events, pharmaceuticals, laboratory tests, and primary care consultations. Each event was assigned a cost. Health expenditure by sex, age and whether in last 6 or 12 months of life or not were calculated. Future health expenditure trends were then estimated for the Statistics New Zealand median projection population counts, with 2010-12 mortality rates reducing by 2% per annum into the future. A total of $8.1, $8.8 and $9.2 billion dollars (inflation-adjusted to 2011 NZ$) was allocated to individual health events in HealthTracker in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Citizen costs for people not within 6 months of death ranged from $498 per person-year (10-14 year old females) to $6900 per person-year (90-94 year old males). Per person-year costs in the last 6 months of life were 10-fold higher on average, being maximal at $30,000 or more among infants and the older elderly (80+ years). Similar patterns were apparent for costs within 12 months of death. For people hypothetically exposed to these 2007-09 health system costs over their full life, the cumulative costs for a person dying at age 70 years was $113,000, and doubled to $223,000 for a person dying at age 90. The proportion of cumulative health expenditure in the last year of life declined with increasing age of death: e.g. 24%, 13% and 10% for someone aged 40, 70 and 90 respectively. Projections of future health system expenditure were overestimated by 2.3% to 3.5% in 2041 when not accounting for proximity to death in costs. New Zealand is fortunate to have access to rich data on health

  20. Inter-lab comparison of precision and recommended methods for age estimation of Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) using growth layer groups in earbones

    OpenAIRE

    Brill, Katherine; Marmontel, Miriam; Bolen-Richardson, Meghan; Stewart, Robert EA

    2016-01-01

    Manatees are routinely aged by counting Growth Layer Groups (GLGs) in periotic bones (earbones). Manatee carcasses recovered in Florida between 1974 and 2010 provided age-estimation material for three readers and formed the base for a retrospective analysis of aging precision (repeatability). All readers were in good agreement (high precision) with the greatest apparent source of variation being the result of earbone remodelling with increasing manatee age. Over the same period, methods of sa...

  1. ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment): a research model to improve the governance of prescribing funds in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favato, Giampiero; Mariani, Paolo; Mills, Roger W; Capone, Alessandro; Pelagatti, Matteo; Pieri, Vasco; Marcobelli, Alberico; Trotta, Maria G; Zucchi, Alberto; Catapano, Alberico L

    2007-07-04

    The primary objective of this study was to make the first step in the modelling of pharmaceutical demand in Italy, by deriving a weighted capitation model to account for demographic differences among general practices. The experimental model was called ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment). Individual prescription costs and demographic data referred to 3,175,691 Italian subjects and were collected directly from three Regional Health Authorities over the 12-month period between October 2004 and September 2005. The mean annual prescription cost per individual was similar for males (196.13 euro) and females (195.12 euro). After 65 years of age, the mean prescribing costs for males were significantly higher than females. On average, costs for a 75-year-old subject would be 12 times the costs for a 25-34 year-old subject if male, 8 times if female. Subjects over 65 years of age (22% of total population) accounted for 56% of total prescribing costs. The weightings explained approximately 90% of the evolution of total prescribing costs, in spite of the pricing and reimbursement turbulences affecting Italy in the 2000-2005 period. The ASSET weightings were able to explain only about 25% of the variation in prescribing costs among individuals. If mainly idiosyncratic prescribing by general practitioners causes the unexplained variations, the introduction of capitation-based budgets would gradually move practices with high prescribing costs towards the national average. It is also possible, though, that the unexplained individual variation in prescribing costs is the result of differences in the clinical characteristics or socio-economic conditions of practice populations. If this is the case, capitation-based budgets may lead to unfair distribution of resources. The ASSET age/sex weightings should be used as a guide, not as the ultimate determinant, for an equitable allocation of prescribing resources to regional authorities and general practices.

  2. Comparison of the accuracy of the London atlas and Smith method in dental age estimation in 5-15.99-year-old Iranians using the panoramic view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghafari, Roshanak; Ghodousi, Arash; Poordavar, Esmaeil

    2018-03-07

    Tooth development is widely used for age estimation and staging physical maturity. It is of great importance in dental age estimation in forensic dentistry, orthodontic treatment planning, and pediatric endocrinology. This study aimed to compare the accuracy of two age estimation methods, i.e., the London Atlas and Smith's method, using the panoramic view of developing teeth. In this descriptive-analytic study, panoramic radiographs of 339 healthy individuals, including 145 boys and 194 girls, were assessed. The participants aged between 5.00 and 15.99 years. Dental age of the subjects was determined by the London Atlas of Human Tooth Development and Eruption and Smith's method. The collected information was entered in the SPSS software (Ver.18). Differences and correlations between chronological and dental age were assessed by paired t tests and Pearson's correlation analysis. In all analyzes, the significance level was considered less than 0.05. The mean chronological age of the subjects was 10.13 ± 2.92 years. The mean ages estimated by the London Atlas and Smith's method were 10.29 ± 2.91 and 9.89 ± 2.84 years, respectively. Paired t test showed that the differences between the mean chronological age and mean estimated ages using the London Atlas and Smith's method were not significant (P = 0.15 and 0.16, respectively). Our findings showed that both methods had high accuracy for age estimation, but the London Atlas is easier to use.

  3. Estimates of hospitalization attributable to influenza and RSV in the US during 1997–2009, by age and risk status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonçalo Matias

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimates of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV burden must be periodically updated to inform public health strategies. We estimated seasonal influenza- and RSV-attributable hospitalizations in the US from 1997 to 2009 according to age and risk status (NCT01599390. Methods Multiple linear regression modelling was used to attribute hospitalizations to influenza or RSV using virological surveillance and hospitalization data. Hospitalization data were obtained from the US Nationwide Inpatient Sample and virology data were obtained from FluView (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Outcomes included any mention of ICD-coded respiratory disease and cardiorespiratory disease diagnoses. We also explored a broader definition of respiratory disease that included mention of relevant respiratory sign/symptoms and viral infection (“respiratory broad”. Results Applying the respiratory broad outcome, our model attributed ~300,000 and ~200,000 hospitalizations to influenza and RSV, respectively. Influenza A/H3N2 was the predominant cause of influenza-related hospitalizations in most seasons, except in three seasons when influenza B was dominant; likewise, A/H3N2 caused most influenza-related hospitalizations in all age segments, except in children <18 years where the relative contribution of A/H3N2 and B was similar. Most influenza A- and B-related hospitalizations occurred in seniors while approximately one half and one third of all RSV-related events occurred in children 0–4 years and seniors 65+ years, respectively. High-risk status was associated with higher risk of both influenza- and RSV-attributable hospitalizations in adults, but not in children. Conclusions Our study assessed the burden of influenza and RSV, information that is important for both cost effectiveness studies and for prioritization of the development of antivirals and vaccines. For seniors, we found that the burdens of influenza and RSV were

  4. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Cardiovascular Events and Mortality Across Age Groups Among Individuals Older Than 60 Years in Southern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvador-González, Betlem; Gil-Terrón, Neus; Cerain-Herrero, M Jesús; Subirana, Isaac; Güell-Miró, Roser; Rodríguez-Latre, Luisa M; Cunillera-Puértolas, Oriol; Elosua, Roberto; Grau, Maria; Vila, Joan; Pascual-Benito, Luisa; Mestre-Ferrer, Jordi; Ramos, Rafel; Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Soler-Vila, Maria; Alonso-Bes, Eva; Ruipérez-Guijarro, Laura; Álvarez-Funes, Virtudes; Freixes-Villaró, Esther; Rodríguez-Pascual, Mercedes; Martínez-Castelao, Alberto

    2018-06-01

    Individuals with a decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are at increased risk of all-cause (ACM) and cardiovascular mortality; there is ongoing debate about whether older individuals with eGFR 45 to 59mL/min/1.73 m 2 are also at increased risk. We evaluated the association between eGFR and ACM and cardiovascular events (CVE) in people aged 60 to 74 and ≥ 75 years in a population with a low coronary disease incidence. We conducted a retrospective cohort study by using primary care and hospital electronic records. We included 130 233 individuals aged ≥ 60 years with creatinine measurement between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2011; eGFR was estimated by using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine equation. The independent association between eGFR and the risk of ACM and hospital admission due to CVE were determined with Cox and Fine-Gray regressions, respectively. The median was age 70 years, and 56.1% were women; 13.5% had eGFR < 60 (69.7% eGFR 45-59). During a median follow-up of 38.2 months, 6474 participants died and 3746 had a CVE. For ACM and CVE, the HR in older individuals became significant at eGFR < 60. Fully adjusted HR for ACM in the eGFR 45 to 59 category were 1.61; 95%CI, 1.37-1.89 and 1.19; 95%CI, 1.10-1.28 in 60- to 74-year-olds and ≥ 75-year-olds, respectively; for CVE HR were 1.28; 95%CI, 1.08-1.51 and 1.12; 95%CI, 0.99-1.26. In a region with low coronary disease incidence, the risk of death and CVE increased with decreasing eGFR. In ≥ 75-year-olds, the eGFR 45 to 59 category, which had borderline risk for CVE, included many individuals without significant additional risk. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Revised stratigraphy of Area 123, Koobi Fora, Kenya, and new age estimates of its fossil mammals, including hominins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathogo, Patrick N; Brown, Francis H

    2006-11-01

    Recent geologic study shows that all hominins and nearly all other published mammalian fossils from Paleontological Collection Area 123, Koobi Fora, Kenya, derive from levels between the KBS Tuff (1.87+/-0.02 Ma) and the Lower Ileret Tuff (1.53+/-0.01 Ma). More specifically, the fossils derive from 53 m of section below the Lower Ileret Tuff, an interval in which beds vary markedly laterally, especially those units containing molluscs and algal stromatolites. The upper Burgi Member (approximately 2.00-1.87 Ma) crops out only in the southwestern part of Area 123. Adjacent Area 110 contains larger exposures of the member, and there the KBS Tuff is preserved as an airfall ash in lacustrine deposits and also as a fluvially redeposited ash. We observed no mammalian fossils in situ in this member in Area 123, but surface specimens have been documented in some monographic treatments. Fossil hominins from Area 123 were attributed to strata above the KBS Tuff in the 1970s, but later they were assigned to strata below the KBS Tuff (now called the upper Burgi Member). This study definitively places the Area 123 hominins in the KBS Member. Most of these hominins are between 1.60 and 1.65 myr in age, but the youngest may date to only 1.53 Ma, and the oldest, to 1.75 Ma. All are 0.15-0.30 myr younger than previously estimated. The new age estimates, in conjunction with published taxonomic attributions of fossils, suggest that at least two species of Homo coexisted in the region along with A. boisei until at least 1.65 Ma. Comparison of crania KNM-ER 1813 and KNM-ER 1470, which were believed to be of comparable age, is at the focus of the debate over whether Homo habilis sensu lato is in fact composed of two species: Homo habilis and Homo rudolfensis. These two crania are separated in time by approximately 0.25 myr, and therefore, arguments for their conspecificity no longer need to confront the issue of unusually high contemporaneous variation within a single species.

  6. A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switzer, P.; Harden, J.W.; Mark, R.K.

    1988-01-01

    A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the

  7. The application of amino acid racemization in the acid-soluble fraction of enamel to the estimation of the age of human teeth.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Griffin, R.C.; Moody, H.; Penkman, K.E.H.; Collins, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    Estimation of age-at-death for skeletonised forensic remains is one of the most significant problems in forensic anthropology. The majority of existing morphological and histological techniques are highly inaccurate, and show a bias towards underestimating the age of older individuals. One technique

  8. Intra- and inter-observer reproducibility study of gestational age estimation using three common foetal biometric parameters: Experienced versus inexperienced sonographer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohagwu, C.C.; Onoduagu, H.I.; Eze, C.U.; Ochie, K.; Ohagwu, C.I.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To assess reproducibility of estimating gestational age (GA) of foetus using femur length (FL), biparietal diameter (BPD) and abdominal circumference (AC) within experienced and inexperienced sonographers and between the two. Patients and methods: Two sets of GA estimates each were obtained for FL, BPD and AC by the two observers in 20 normal singleton foetuses. The first estimates for the three biometric parameters were made by the experienced sonographer. Subsequently, the inexperienced sonographer, blind to the estimates of the first observer obtained his own estimates for the same biometric parameters. After a time interval of ten minutes the process was repeated for the second set of GA estimates. All the gestational age estimates were made following standard protocol. Statistical analysis was performed by Pearson's and intraclass correlations, coefficient of variation and Bland–Altman plots. Statistical inferences were drawn at p < 0.05. Results: The Pearson's and intraclass correlations of between GA estimates within and between both observers from measurement of FL, BPD and AC were very high and statistically significant (p < 0.05). Coefficient of variation for duplicate measurements for GA estimates within observers and between observers were quite negligible. Between observers, the first and second GA estimates from FL measurements showed the least variation. Estimates from BPD and AC measurements showed greater degree of variation between the observers. Conclusion: Reproducibility of GA estimation using FL, BPD and AC within experienced and inexperienced sonographers and between the two was excellent. Therefore, a fresh Nigerian radiography graduate with adequate exposure in obstetric ultrasound can correctly determine the gestational age of foetus in routine obstetric ultrasound without supervision

  9. [Estimated glucose disposal rate in patients under 18 years of age with type 1 diabetes mellitus and overweight or obesity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomo Atance, Enrique; Ballester Herrera, M José; Giralt Muiña, Patricio; Ruiz Cano, Rafael; León Martín, Alberto; Giralt Muiña, Juan

    2013-01-01

    To assess the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), insulin dose, and lipoprotein profile in children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and overweight or obesity as compared to children with T1DM and normal weight. A total of 115 patients (aged 5-16 years) with T1DM on intensive insulin therapy were recruited. The following parameters were measured: weight, height, body mass index, waist and hip circumference, insulin dose, eGDR, glycosylated hemoglobin, blood pressure, and lipoprotein profile. Results were stratified by sex and age. No significant differences were found in eGDR between children with normal weight, overweight, and obesity. However, obese children older than 11 years had lower eGDR values (9.3±1.3 vs 10.1±0.8 mg kg(-1)min(-1); p<0.01). Insulin dose was higher in overweight and obese children, especially in IU/m2/day (37.7 vs 36.1 vs. 29.4 respectively; p<0.01). Obese children had higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels than children with overweight and normal weight (106.5 vs 91.7 vs 91.5mg/dL respectively; p<0.01). No correlation was found between waist circumference and the different markers of insulin resistance. Values of eGDR values were lower in obese children with T1DM older than 11 years, and this may therefore be considered a marker of insulin resistance. Insulin dose was higher in diabetic patients with overweight or obesity, specially in IU/m2/day. Obese children with T1DM had a lipoprotein profile of cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2012 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  10. COMBINING LIDAR ESTIMATES OF BIOMASS AND LANDSAT ESTIMATES OF STAND AGE FOR SPATIALLY EXTENSIVE VALIDATION OF MODELED FOREST PRODUCTIVITY. (R828309)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extensive estimates of forest productivity are required to understand the relationships between shifting land use, changing climate and carbon storage and fluxes. Aboveground net primary production of wood (NPPAw) is a major component of total NPP and...

  11. Age Estimation with DNA: From Forensic DNA Fingerprinting to Forensic (Epi)Genomics: A Mini-Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parson, Walther

    2018-01-23

    , which can be comparable to, or even surpass those from, eyewitness reports. This mini-review puts recent developments in age estimation via (epi)genetic methods in the context of the requirements and goals of forensic genetics and highlights paths to follow in the future of forensic genomics. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  12. A new model for the estimation of time of death from vitreous potassium levels corrected for age and temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zilg, B; Bernard, S; Alkass, K; Berg, S; Druid, H

    2015-09-01

    Analysis of potassium concentration in the vitreous fluid of the eye is frequently used by forensic pathologists to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI), particularly when other methods commonly used in the early phase of an investigation can no longer be applied. The postmortem rise in vitreous potassium has been recognized for several decades and is readily explained by a diffusion of potassium from surrounding cells into the vitreous fluid. However, there is no consensus regarding the mathematical equation that best describes this increase. The existing models assume a linear increase, but different slopes and starting points have been proposed. In this study, vitreous potassium levels, and a number of factors that may influence these levels, were examined in 462 cases with known postmortem intervals that ranged from 2h to 17 days. We found that the postmortem rise in potassium followed a non-linear curve and that decedent age and ambient temperature influenced the variability by 16% and 5%, respectively. A long duration of agony and a high alcohol level at the time of death contributed less than 1% variability, and evaluation of additional possible factors revealed no detectable impact on the rise of vitreous potassium. Two equations were subsequently generated, one that represents the best fit of the potassium concentrations alone, and a second that represents potassium concentrations with correction for decedent age and/or ambient temperature. The former was associated with narrow confidence intervals in the early postmortem phase, but the intervals gradually increased with longer PMIs. For the latter equation, the confidence intervals were reduced at all PMIs. Therefore, the model that best describes the observed postmortem rise in vitreous potassium levels includes potassium concentration, decedent age, and ambient temperature. Furthermore, the precision of these equations, particularly for long PMIs, is expected to gradually improve by adjusting the

  13. National and regional estimates of term and preterm babies born small for gestational age in 138 low-income and middle-income countries in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Anne C C; Katz, Joanne; Blencowe, Hannah

    2013-01-01

    million low-birthweight babies, 59% were term-SGA and 41% were preterm-SGA. Two-thirds of small-for-gestational-age infants were born in Asia (17·4 million in south Asia). Preterm-SGA babies totalled 2·8 million births in low-income and middle-income countries. Most small-for-gestational-age infants were......BACKGROUND: National estimates for the numbers of babies born small for gestational age and the comorbidity with preterm birth are unavailable. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of term and preterm babies born small for gestational age (term-SGA and preterm-SGA), and the relation to low...... birthweight (age was defined as lower than the 10th centile for fetal growth from the 1991 US national reference population. Data from 22 birth cohort studies (14 low-income and middle-income countries) and from...

  14. Aging adult skull remains through radiological density estimates: A comparison of different computed tomography systems and the use of computer simulations to judge the accuracy of results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obert, Martin; Kubelt, Carolin; Schaaf, Thomas; Dassinger, Benjamin; Grams, Astrid; Gizewski, Elke R; Krombach, Gabriele A; Verhoff, Marcel A

    2013-05-10

    The objective of this article was to explore age-at-death estimates in forensic medicine, which were methodically based on age-dependent, radiologically defined bone-density (HC) decay and which were investigated with a standard clinical computed tomography (CT) system. Such density decay was formerly discovered with a high-resolution flat-panel CT in the skulls of adult females. The development of a standard CT methodology for age estimations--with thousands of installations--would have the advantage of being applicable everywhere, whereas only few flat-panel prototype CT systems are in use worldwide. A Multi-Slice CT scanner (MSCT) was used to obtain 22,773 images from 173 European human skulls (89 male, 84 female), taken from a population of patients from the Department of Neuroradiology at the University Hospital Giessen and Marburg during 2010 and 2011. An automated image analysis was carried out to evaluate HC of all images. The age dependence of HC was studied by correlation analysis. The prediction accuracy of age-at-death estimates was calculated. Computer simulations were carried out to explore the influence of noise on the accuracy of age predictions. Human skull HC values strongly scatter as a function of age for both sexes. Adult male skull bone-density remains constant during lifetime. Adult female HC decays during lifetime, as indicated by a correlation coefficient (CC) of -0.53. Prediction errors for age-at-death estimates for both of the used scanners are in the range of ±18 years at a 75% confidence interval (CI). Computer simulations indicate that this is the best that can be expected for such noisy data. Our results indicate that HC-decay is indeed present in adult females and that it can be demonstrated both by standard and by high-resolution CT methods, applied to different subject groups of an identical population. The weak correlation between HC and age found by both CT methods only enables a method to estimate age-at-death with limited

  15. Age-specific effective doses for pediatric MSCT examinations at a large children's hospital using DLP conversion coefficients: a simple estimation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Karen E.; Wang, Bo

    2008-01-01

    There is a need for an easily accessible method for effective dose estimation in pediatric CT. To estimate effective doses for a variety of pediatric neurological and body CT examinations in five age groups using recently published age- and region-specific dose length product (DLP) to effective dose conversion coefficients. A retrospective review was performed of 1,431 consecutive CT scans over a 12-week period using age- and weight-adjusted CT protocols. Age- and region-specific DLP to effective dose conversion coefficients were applied to console-displayed DLP data. Effective dose estimates for single-phase head CT scans in neonatal, and 1-, 5-, 10- and 15-year-old age groups were 4.2, 3.6, 2.4, 2.0 and 1.4 mSv, respectively. For abdomen/pelvis CT scans the corresponding effective doses were 13.1, 11.1, 8.4, 8.9 and 5.9 mSv. The range of pediatric CT effective doses is wide, from ultralow dose protocols (<1 mSv) to extended-coverage body examinations (10-15 mSv). Age- and region-specific pediatric DLP to effective dose conversion coefficients provide an accessible and user-friendly method for estimating pediatric CT effective doses that is available to radiologists working without medical physics support. (orig.)

  16. Criteria of estimation of positive health level in the long-term process of the health training of women of senior age.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prusik Katerina

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article materials of the three-year looking are utillized after the state of positive health of group of women in age 50-80 years. The method of statistical ground of adequate control indexes is shown for the estimation of bodily condition of inspected. The use of high-quality criteria is offered for the estimation of efficiency of physical exercises on the Norwegian method of walking with sticks.

  17. Multilevel model to estimate county-level untreated dental caries among US children aged 6-9years using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Mei; Zhang, Xingyou; Holt, James B; Robison, Valerie; Li, Chien-Hsun; Griffin, Susan O

    2018-06-01

    Because conducting population-based oral health screening is resource intensive, oral health data at small-area levels (e.g., county-level) are not commonly available. We applied the multilevel logistic regression and poststratification method to estimate county-level prevalence of untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years in the United States using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2010 linked with various area-level data at census tract, county and state levels. We validated model-based national estimates against direct estimates from NHANES. We also compared model-based estimates with direct estimates from select State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state and county levels. The model with individual-level covariates only and the model with individual-, census tract- and county-level covariates explained 7.2% and 96.3% respectively of overall county-level variation in untreated caries. Model-based county-level prevalence estimates ranged from 4.9% to 65.2% with median of 22.1%. The model-based national estimate (19.9%) matched the NHANES direct estimate (19.8%). We found significantly positive correlations between model-based estimates for 8-year-olds and direct estimates from the third-grade State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state level for 34 states (Pearson coefficient: 0.54, P=0.001) and SOHS estimates at county level for 53 New York counties (Pearson coefficient: 0.38, P=0.006). This methodology could be a useful tool to characterize county-level disparities in untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years and complement oral health surveillance to inform public health programs especially when local-level data are not available although the lack of external validation due to data unavailability should be acknowledged. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Estimates of burden and consequences of infants born small for gestational age in low and middle income countries with INTERGROWTH-21st standard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Anne Cc; Kozuki, Naoko; Cousens, Simon

    2017-01-01

    Objectives  To estimate small for gestational age birth prevalence and attributable neonatal mortality in low and middle income countries with the INTERGROWTH-21st birth weight standard. Design  Secondary analysis of data from the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG), including 14...... birth cohorts with gestational age, birth weight, and neonatal follow-up. Small for gestational age was defined as infants weighing less than the 10th centile birth weight for gestational age and sex with the multiethnic, INTERGROWTH-21st birth weight standard. Prevalence of small for gestational age......  CHERG birth cohorts from 14 population based sites in low and middle income countries. Main outcome measures In low and middle income countries in the year 2012, the number and proportion of infants born small for gestational age; number and proportion of neonatal deaths attributable to small...

  19. A Bayesian modeling approach for estimation of a shape-free groundwater age distribution using multiple tracers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Massoudieh, A.; Visser, A.; Sharifi, S.; Broers, H.P.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the

  20. The Issue of Age Estimation in a Modern Skeletal Population: Are Even the More Modern Current Aging Methods Satisfactory for the Elderly?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappella, Annalisa; Cummaudo, Marco; Arrigoni, Elena; Collini, Federica; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2017-01-01

    The main idea behind age assessment in adults is related to the analysis of the physiological degeneration of particular skeletal structures with age. The main issues with these procedures are due to the fact that they have not been tested on different modern populations and in different taphonomic contexts and that they tend to underestimate the age of older individuals. The purpose of this study was to test the applicability and the reliability of these methods on a contemporary population of skeletal remains of 145 elderly individuals of known sex and age. The results show that, due to taphonomic influences, some skeletal sites showed a lower survival. Therefore, the methods with the highest percentage of applicability were Lovejoy (89.6%) and Rougé-Maillart (81.3%), followed by Suchey-Brooks (59.3%), and those with the lowest percentage of applicability were Beauthier (26.2%) and Iscan (22.7%). In addition, this research has shown how for older adults the study of both acetabulum and auricular surface may be more reliable for aging. This is also in accordance with the fact that auricular surface and the acetabulum are the areas more frequently surviving taphonomic insult. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  1. Current and projected prevalence of arterial hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa by sex, age and habitat: an estimate from population studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twagirumukiza, Marc; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kips, Jan G; de Backer, Guy; Stichele, Robert Vander; Van Bortel, Luc M

    2011-07-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), data on hypertension prevalence in terms of urban or rural and sex difference are lacking, heterogeneous or contradictory. In addition, there are no accurate estimates of hypertension burden. To estimate the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of arterial hypertension in SSA in urban and rural adult populations. We searched for population studies, conducted from 1998 through 2008 in SSA. We extracted data from selected studies on available prevalences and used a logistic regression model to estimate all age/sex/habitat (urban/rural)/country-specific prevalences for SSA up to 2008 and 2025. On the basis of the United Nations Population Fund data for 2008 and predictions for 2025, we estimated the number of hypertensives in both years. Seventeen studies pertaining to 11 countries were analysed. The overall prevalence rate of hypertension in SSA for 2008 was estimated at 16.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.1-20.3], ranging from 10.6% in Ethiopia to 26.9% in Ghana. The estimated prevalence was 13.7% in rural areas, 20.7% in urban areas, 16.8% in males, and 15.7% in women. The total number of hypertensives in SSA was estimated at 75 million (95% CI 65-93 million) in 2008 and at 125.5 million (95% CI 111.0-162.9 million) by 2025. The estimated number of hypertensives in 2008 is nearly four times higher than the last (2005) estimate of the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Prevalences were significantly higher in urban than in rural populations. Population data are lacking in many countries underlining the need for national surveys.

  2. Childbearing in adolescents aged 12-15 years in low resource countries: a neglected issue. New estimates from demographic and household surveys in 42 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, Sarah; Matthews, Zoë; Frost, Melanie; Fogstad, Helga; Camacho, Alma V; Laski, Laura

    2012-09-01

    There is strong evidence that the health risks associated with adolescent pregnancy are concentrated among the youngest girls (e.g. those under 16 years). Fertility rates in this age group have not previously been comprehensively estimated and published. By drawing data from 42 large, nationally representative household surveys in low resource countries carried out since 2003 this article presents estimates of age-specific birth rates for girls aged 12-15, and the percentage of girls who give birth at age 15 or younger. From these we estimate that approximately 2.5 million births occur to girls aged under 16 in low resource countries each year. The highest rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa, where in Chad, Guinea, Mali, Mozambique, Niger and Sierra Leone more than 10% of girls become mothers before they are 16. Strategies to reduce these high levels are vital if we are to alleviate poor reproductive health. © 2012 The Authors  Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica© 2012 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  3. An enhanced computational method for age-at-death estimation based on the pubic symphysis using 3D laser scans and thin plate splines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoyanova, Detelina; Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B; Slice, Dennis E

    2015-11-01

    The pubic symphysis is frequently used to estimate age-at-death from the adult skeleton. Assessment methods require the visual comparison of the bone morphology against age-informative characteristics that represent a series of phases. Age-at-death is then estimated from the age-range previously associated with the chosen phase. While easily executed, the "morphoscopic" process of feature-scoring and bone-to-phase-matching is known to be subjective. Studies of method and practitioner error demonstrate a need for alternative tools to quantify age-progressive change in the pubic symphysis. This article proposes a more objective, quantitative method that analyzes three-dimensional (3D) surface scans of the pubic symphysis using a thin plate spline algorithm (TPS). This algorithm models the bending of a flat plane to approximately match the surface of the bone and minimizes the bending energy required for this transformation. Known age-at-death and bending energy were used to construct a linear model to predict age from observed bending energy. This approach is tested with scans from 44 documented white male skeletons and 12 casts. The results of the surface analysis show a significant association (regression p-value = 0.0002 and coefficient of determination = 0.2270) between the minimum bending energy and age-at-death, with a root mean square error of ≈19 years. This TPS method yields estimates comparable to established methods but offers a fully integrated, objective and quantitative framework of analysis and has potential for use in archaeological and forensic casework. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Effects of Age and Schooling on Intellectual Performance: Estimates Obtained from Analysis of Continuous Variation in Age and Length of Schooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliffordson, Christina; Gustafsson, Jan-Eric

    2008-01-01

    The effects of age and schooling on different aspects of intellectual performance, taking track of study into account, are investigated. The analyses were based on military enlistment test scores, obtained by 48,269 males, measuring Fluid ability (Gf), Crystallized intelligence (Gc), and General visualization (Gv) ability. A regression method,…

  5. Using 81Kr-age of groundwater in the Guarani Aquifer, Brazil, to constrain estimates of continental degassing flux of 4He

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, P. K.; Matsumoto, T.; Sturchio, N. C.; Chang, H. K.; Gastmans, D.; Lu, Z.; Jiang, W.; Müller, P.; Yokochi, R.; Han, L.; Klaus, P.; Torgersen, T.

    2013-12-01

    Continental degassing flux of helium is the dominant component of dissolved helium in deep groundwater together with that produced in-situ in the aquifer. A reliable estimate of the degassing flux is critical to the use of 4He as a dating tool in groundwater studies. The degassing flux is also important for understanding fluid and heat transport in the mantle and the rust. An independent tracer of groundwater age is required in order to deconvolute the two signals of the external, degassing flux and in situ production. Estimates of degassing flux mostly have relied upon shorter-lived radionuclides such as 14C and tritium and the resulting flux estimates have a significant variability (Torgersen, 2010). In the Guarani Aquifer in Brazil, an effective crustal 4He degassing flux into the aquifer was estimated from 81Kr ages ranging from about 70 Ka to 570 Ka. We then used the model framework of Toregesen and Ivey (1985), modified to include a diffusive reduction of originally uniform crustal helium flux from basement rocks through a thick sedimentary layer beneath the aquifer, to calculate a distribution of radiogenic 4He within the aquifer. With this framework, we obtain 4He ages that are consistent with ages based on 81Kr and 14C, and with a crustal degassing flux equivalent to that estimated from U and Th contents in the crust. The model framework for the Guarani Aquifer is also applied to data from other deep aquifers in Africa and Australia and our results suggest that the continental flux of 4He may be uniform, at least in stable continental areas. Additionally, a reliable estimate of the 4He degassing flux also helps to constrain the surficial discharge of deep groundwater.

  6. Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2016-06-01

    Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

  7. Age- and gender-specific estimates of cumulative CT dose over 5 years using real radiation dose tracking data in children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Eunsol; Goo, Hyun Woo; Lee, Jae-Yeong

    2015-01-01

    It is necessary to develop a mechanism to estimate and analyze cumulative radiation risks from multiple CT exams in various clinical scenarios in children. To identify major contributors to high cumulative CT dose estimates using actual dose-length product values collected for 5 years in children. Between August 2006 and July 2011 we reviewed 26,937 CT exams in 13,803 children. Among them, we included 931 children (median age 3.5 years, age range 0 days-15 years; M:F = 533:398) who had 5,339 CT exams. Each child underwent at least three CT scans and had accessible radiation dose reports. Dose-length product values were automatically extracted from DICOM files and we used recently updated conversion factors for age, gender, anatomical region and tube voltage to estimate CT radiation dose. We tracked the calculated CT dose estimates to obtain a 5-year cumulative value for each child. The study population was divided into three groups according to the cumulative CT dose estimates: high, ≥30 mSv; moderate, 10-30 mSv; and low, <10 mSv. We reviewed clinical data and CT protocols to identify major contributors to high and moderate cumulative CT dose estimates. Median cumulative CT dose estimate was 5.4 mSv (range 0.5-71.1 mSv), and median number of CT scans was 4 (range 3-36). High cumulative CT dose estimates were most common in children with malignant tumors (57.9%, 11/19). High frequency of CT scans was attributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates in children with ventriculoperitoneal shunt (35 in 1 child) and malignant tumors (range 18-49). Moreover, high-dose CT protocols, such as multiphase abdomen CT (median 4.7 mSv) contributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates even in children with a low number of CT scans. Disease group, number of CT scans, and high-dose CT protocols are major contributors to higher cumulative CT dose estimates in children. (orig.)

  8. Combined Influence of Gestational Weight Gain and Estimated Fetal Weight on Risk Assessment for Small- or Large-for-Gestational-Age Birth Weight: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, Sarah J; Hinkle, Stefanie N; Kim, Sungduk; Albert, Paul S; Newman, Roger; Grobman, William A; Wing, Deborah A; Grantz, Katherine L

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate the frequency with which gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight do not track across gestation and to assess the risk of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) birth weight as a function of tracking. This study included a pregnancy cohort (2009-2013) of 2438 women from 4 racial/ethnic groups in the United States. We calculated race- and trimester-specific gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight z scores. The prevalence of how often gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight did not or did directly track was examined by grouping z scores into measure-specific categories (1 SD) and then examining 2-measure combinations. Trimester-specific relative risks for SGA and LGA births were estimated with a gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight z score interaction. We estimated coefficients for selected gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight values (-1 SD, 0 SD, and +1 SD) compared with the referent of 0 SD for both measures. Small and large for gestational age were calculated as birth weight below the 10th and at or above the 90th percentiles, respectively. Gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight were within 1 SD 55.5%, 51.5%, and 48.2% of the time in the first, second, and third trimesters, respectively. There was no significant interaction between gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight on the risk of SGA in the first and second trimesters (interaction term P = .48; P = .79). In the third trimester, there was a significant interaction (P = .002), resulting in a 71% (95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.02) increased risk of SGA when estimated fetal weight was low and gestational weight gain was high. These relationships were similar for the risk of LGA. Deviations in either measure, even in the presence of average gestational weight gain or estimated fetal weight, still suggest an increased risk of SGA and LGA. © 2017 by the American Institute of

  9. The impact of case definition on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder prevalence estimates in community-based samples of school-aged children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKeown, Robert E; Holbrook, Joseph R; Danielson, Melissa L; Cuffe, Steven P; Wolraich, Mark L; Visser, Susanna N

    2015-01-01

    To determine the impact of varying attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnostic criteria, including new DSM-5 criteria, on prevalence estimates. Parent and teacher reports identified high- and low-screen children with ADHD from elementary schools in 2 states that produced a diverse overall sample. The parent interview stage included the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children-IV (DISC-IV), and up to 4 additional follow-up interviews. Weighted prevalence estimates, accounting for complex sampling, quantified the impact of varying ADHD criteria using baseline and the final follow-up interview data. At baseline 1,060 caregivers were interviewed; 656 had at least 1 follow-up interview. Teachers and parents reported 6 or more ADHD symptoms for 20.5% (95% CI = 18.1%-23.2%) and 29.8% (CI = 24.5%-35.6%) of children respectively, with criteria for impairment and onset by age 7 years (DSM-IV) reducing these proportions to 16.3% (CI = 14.7%-18.0%) and 17.5% (CI = 13.3%-22.8%); requiring at least 4 teacher-reported symptoms reduced the parent-reported prevalence to 8.9% (CI = 7.4%-10.6%). Revising age of onset to 12 years per DSM-5 increased the 8.9% estimate to 11.3% (CI = 9.5%-13.3%), with a similar increase seen at follow-up: 8.2% with age 7 onset (CI = 5.9%-11.2%) versus 13.0% (CI = 7.6%-21.4%) with onset by age 12. Reducing the number of symptoms required for those aged 17 and older increased the overall estimate to 13.1% (CI = 7.7%-21.5%). These findings quantify the impact on prevalence estimates of varying case definition criteria for ADHD. Further research of impairment ratings and data from multiple informants is required to better inform clinicians conducting diagnostic assessments. DSM-5 changes in age of onset and number of symptoms required for older adolescents appear to increase prevalence estimates, although the full impact is uncertain due to the age of our sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Human dental age estimation using third molar developmental stages: does a Bayesian approach outperform regression models to discriminate between juveniles and adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Fieuws, S; Willems, G

    2010-01-01

    Dental age estimation methods based on the radiologically detected third molar developmental stages are implemented in forensic age assessments to discriminate between juveniles and adults considering the judgment of young unaccompanied asylum seekers. Accurate and unbiased age estimates combined with appropriate quantified uncertainties are the required properties for accurate forensic reporting. In this study, a subset of 910 individuals uniformly distributed in age between 16 and 22 years was selected from an existing dataset collected by Gunst et al. containing 2,513 panoramic radiographs with known third molar developmental stages of Belgian Caucasian men and women. This subset was randomly split in a training set to develop a classical regression analysis and a Bayesian model for the multivariate distribution of the third molar developmental stages conditional on age and in a test set to assess the performance of both models. The aim of this study was to verify if the Bayesian approach differentiates the age of maturity more precisely and removes the bias, which disadvantages the systematically overestimated young individuals. The Bayesian model offers the discrimination of subjects being older than 18 years more appropriate and produces more meaningful prediction intervals but does not strongly outperform the classical approaches.

  11. Digital radiographic evaluation of mandibular third molar for age estimation in young adults and adolescents of South Indian population using modified Demirjian's method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Koganti, Ravichandra; Kalyan, Siva V; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Singh, Johar Rajvinder; Srinivasulu, Enganti

    2014-09-01

    In recent years, it has become increasingly important to determine the age of living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of mandibular third molar for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population. Digital orthopantomography of 330 subjects (165 males, 165 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular third molar development was performed using Demirjian et al., modified method and DA was assessed using tooth specific stages. The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males and females. Third molar development commenced around 9 years and root completion takes place around 18.9 years in males and in females 9 years and 18.6 years respectively. Demirjian modified method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.8 years and females by 0.5 years and also showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. Digital radiographic assessment of mandibular third molar development can be used to generate mean DA using Demirjian modified method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. Since the Demirjian method is based on French-Canadian population, to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molar development, the use of population-specific standards is recommended.

  12. Estimates of Parainfluenza Virus-Associated Hospitalizations and Cost Among Children Aged Less Than 5 Years in the United States, 1998–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abedi, Glen R.; Prill, Mila M.; Langley, Gayle E.; Wikswo, Mary E.; Weinberg, Geoffrey A.; Curns, Aaron T.; Schneider, Eileen

    2018-01-01

    Background Parainfluenza virus (PIV) is the second leading cause of hospitalization for respiratory illness in young children in the United States. Infection can result in a full range of respiratory illness, including bronchiolitis, croup, and pneumonia. The recognized human subtypes of PIV are numbered 1–4. This study calculates estimates of PIV-associated hospitalizations among US children younger than 5 years using the latest available data. Methods Data from the National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System were used to characterize seasonal PIV trends from July 2004 through June 2010. To estimate the number of PIV-associated hospitalizations that occurred annually among US children aged PIV among young children enrolled in the New Vaccine Surveillance Network. Estimates of hospitalization charges attributable to PIV infection were also calculated. Results Parainfluenza virus seasonality follows type-specific seasonal patterns, with PIV-1 circulating in odd-numbered years and PIV-2 and -3 circulating annually. The average annual estimates of PIV-associated bronchiolitis, croup, and pneumonia hospitalizations among children aged PIV-associated bronchiolitis, croup, and pneumonia hospitalizations were approximately $43 million, $58 million, and $158 million, respectively. Conclusions The majority of PIV-associated hospitalizations in young children occur among those aged 0 to 2 years. When vaccines for PIV become available, immunization would be most effective if realized within the first year of life. PMID:26908486

  13. Estimation of Diverse Porang (Amorphophallus Muelleri Blume Age in Forest Are Based on Brancing Pattern of Leaf Petiolule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nunung Harijati

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Porang is higher plant which has unique morphology. Tuber, petiole and lamina are the main part of its body. Even Porang doesn’t have true stem, only petiole, its lamina not simple leaves but compound leaves with special pattern. Branching patterns of petiolule are not same in different age. Therefore the aim of research was to observe branching pattern of petiolule from Porang age 1-4 that lived in their native habitat i.e. forest. The research was conducted in secondary forest in Sumberbendo village, Madiun. Determination porang age was helped by expert farmer that worked with porang for long time. The result showed that Porang age 1 had petiolule with braching type 1-0. Porang age 2 was 1-3, Porang age 3 was 1-3-2, and Porang age 4 was 1-3-2-2. The petiolule which acted as a base of new branch had one or few single simple leaf. The leave could be both sinus and un-sinus leaves located in between two initial or base branching. The position of the leaves were opposite or alternate along with petiolule. If location single leaf just in point branching, the new petiolule morphology was not be considered as petiolule but midrib.

  14. Preliminary estimates of residence times and apparent ages of ground water in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and water-quality data from a survey of springs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Focazio, Michael J.; Plummer, Niel; Bohlke, John K.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Bachman, L. Joseph; Powars, David S.

    1998-01-01

    Knowledge of the residence times of the ground-water systems in Chesapeake Bay watershed helps resource managers anticipate potential delays between implementation of land-management practices and any improve-ments in river and estuary water quality. This report presents preliminary estimates of ground-water residence times and apparent ages of water in the shallow aquifers of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. A simple reservoir model, published data, and analyses of spring water were used to estimate residence times and apparent ages of ground-water discharge. Ranges of aquifer hydraulic characteristics throughout the Bay watershed were derived from published literature and were used to estimate ground-water residence times on the basis of a simple reservoir model. Simple combinations of rock type and physiographic province were used to delineate hydrogeomorphic regions (HGMR?s) for the study area. The HGMR?s are used to facilitate organization and display of the data and analyses. Illustrations depicting the relation of aquifer characteristics and associated residence times as a continuum for each HGMR were developed. In this way, the natural variation of aquifer characteristics can be seen graphically by use of data from selected representative studies. Water samples collected in September and November 1996, from 46 springs throughout the watershed were analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons (CFC?s) to estimate the apparent age of ground water. For comparison purposes, apparent ages of water from springs were calculated assuming piston flow. Additi-onal data are given to estimate apparent ages assuming an exponential distribution of ages in spring discharge. Additionally, results from previous studies of CFC-dating of ground water from other springs and wells in the watershed were compiled. The CFC data, and the data on major ions, nutrients, and nitrogen isotopes in the water collected from the 46 springs are included in this report. The apparent ages of water

  15. Source of parental reports of child height and weight during phone interviews and influence on obesity prevalence estimates among children aged 3-17 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Asheley Cockrell; Miles, Donna; Perrin, Eliana M; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera; Ford, Carol

    2013-01-01

    We compared parental reports of children's height and weight when the values were estimated vs. parent-measured to determine how these reports influence the estimated prevalence of childhood obesity. In the 2007 and 2008 North Carolina Child Health Assessment and Monitoring Program surveys, parents reported height and weight for children aged 3-17 years. When parents reported the values were not measured (by doctor, school, or home), they were asked to measure their child and were later called back. We categorized body mass index status using standard CDC definitions, and we used Chi-square tests and the Stuart-Maxwell test of marginal homogeneity to examine reporting differences. About 80% (n=509) of the 638 parents who reported an unmeasured height and/or weight participated in a callback and provided updated measures. Children originally classified as obese were subsequently classified as obese (67%), overweight (13%), and healthy weight (19%). An estimated 28% of younger children (children (aged ≥10 years) were reclassified on callback. Having parents who guessed the height and weight of their children and then reported updated values did not significantly change the overall population estimates of obesity. Our findings demonstrate that using parent-reported height and weight values may be sufficient to provide reasonable estimates of obesity prevalence. Systematically asking the source of height and weight information may help improve how it is applied to research of the prevalence of childhood obesity when gold-standard measurements are not available.

  16. Oil Palm Counting and Age Estimation from WorldView-3 Imagery and LiDAR Data Using an Integrated OBIA Height Model and Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Mojaddadi Rizeei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The current study proposes a new method for oil palm age estimation and counting. A support vector machine algorithm (SVM of object-based image analysis (OBIA was implemented for oil palm counting. It was integrated with height model and multiregression methods to accurately estimate the age of trees based on their heights in five different plantation blocks. Multiregression and multi-kernel size models were examined over five different oil palm plantation blocks to achieve the most optimized model for age estimation. The sensitivity analysis was conducted on four SVM kernel types (sigmoid (SIG, linear (LN, radial basis function (RBF, and polynomial (PL with associated parameters (threshold values, gamma γ, and penalty factor (c to obtain the optimal OBIA classification approaches for each plantation block. Very high-resolution imageries of WorldView-3 (WV-3 and light detection and range (LiDAR were used for oil palm detection and age assessment. The results of oil palm detection had an overall accuracy of 98.27%, 99.48%, 99.28%, 99.49%, and 97.49% for blocks A, B, C, D, and E, respectively. Moreover, the accuracy of age estimation analysis showed 90.1% for 3-year-old, 87.9% for 4-year-old, 88.0% for 6-year-old, 87.6% for 8-year-old, 79.1% for 9-year-old, and 76.8% for 22-year-old trees. Overall, the study revealed that remote sensing techniques can be useful to monitor and detect oil palm plantation for sustainable agricultural management.

  17. Comparison of Analytical Methods for Estimation of Early-Age Thermal-Shrinkage Stresses in RC Walls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klemczak B.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The volume changes caused by coupled temperature and moisture variations in early-age concrete elements lead to formation of stresses. If a restraint exists along the contact surface of mature concrete against which a new concrete element has been cast, generated stresses are mostly of a restraint origin. In engineering practice a wide range of externally restrained concrete elements can be distinguished such as tank walls or bridge abutments cast against an old set foundation, in which early-age cracking may endanger their durability or functionality. Therefore, for years methods were being developed to predict early-age stresses and cracking risk of externally restrained concrete elements subjected to early-age thermal-moisture effects. The paper presents the comparative study of the most recognised analytical approaches: the method proposed in EC2, the method proposed by ACI Committee 207 and the method developed at the Luleå University of Technology.

  18. Evaluation of the accuracy of Demirjian method for estimation of dental age among 6-12 years of children in Navi Mumbai: A radiographic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegde, Rahul J; Khare, Sumedh Suhas; Saraf, Tanvi A; Trivedi, Sonal; Naidu, Sonal

    2015-01-01

    Dental formation is superior to eruption as a method of dental age (DA) assessment. Eruption is only a brief occurrence, whereas formation may be related at different chronologic age levels, thereby providing a precise index for determining DA. The study was designed to determine the nature of inter-relationship between chronologic and DA. Age estimation depending upon tooth formation was done by Demirjian method and accuracy of Demirjian method was also evaluated. The sample for the study consisted of 197 children of Navi Mumbai. Significant positive correlation was found between chronologic age and DA that is, (r = 0.995), (P Mumbai (Maharashtra - India) population. Demirjian method showed high accuracy when applied to Navi Mumbai (Maharashtra - India) population.

  19. Using a generalized linear mixed model approach to explore the role of age, motor proficiency, and cognitive styles in children's reach estimation accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caçola, Priscila M; Pant, Mohan D

    2014-10-01

    The purpose was to use a multi-level statistical technique to analyze how children's age, motor proficiency, and cognitive styles interact to affect accuracy on reach estimation tasks via Motor Imagery and Visual Imagery. Results from the Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis (GLMM) indicated that only the 7-year-old age group had significant random intercepts for both tasks. Motor proficiency predicted accuracy in reach tasks, and cognitive styles (object scale) predicted accuracy in the motor imagery task. GLMM analysis is suitable to explore age and other parameters of development. In this case, it allowed an assessment of motor proficiency interacting with age to shape how children represent, plan, and act on the environment.

  20. Age-at-exposure effects on risk estimates for non-cancer mortality in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Wei; Muirhead, Colin R; Hunter, Nezahat

    2005-01-01

    Statistically significant increases in non-cancer disease mortality with radiation dose have been observed among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The increasing trends arise particularly for diseases of the circulatory, digestive, and respiratory systems. Rates for survivors exposed to a dose of 1 Sv are elevated by about 10%, a smaller relative increase than that for cancer. The aetiology of this increased risk is not yet understood. Neither animal nor human studies have found clear evidence for excess non-cancer mortality at the lower range of doses received by A-bomb survivors. In this paper, we examine the age and time patterns of excess risks in the A-bomb survivors. The results suggest that the excess relative risk of non-cancer disease mortality might be highest for exposure at ages 30-49 years, and that those exposed at ages 0-29 years might have a very low excess relative risk compared with those exposed at older ages. The differences in excess relative risk for different age-at-exposure groups imply that the dose response relationships for non-cancer disease mortality need to be modelled with adjustment for age-at-exposure

  1. Age estimates for the buckwheat family Polygonaceae based on sequence data calibrated by fossils and with a focus on the amphi-Pacific Muehlenbeckia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja M Schuster

    Full Text Available The buckwheat family Polygonaceae is a diverse group of plants and is a good model for investigating biogeography, breeding systems, coevolution with symbionts such as ants and fungi, functional trait evolution, hybridization, invasiveness, morphological plasticity, pollen morphology and wood anatomy. The main goal of this study was to obtain age estimates for Polygonaceae by calibrating a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis, using a relaxed molecular clock with fossil data. Based on the age estimates, we also develop hypotheses about the historical biogeography of the Southern Hemisphere group Muehlenbeckia. We are interested in addressing whether vicariance or dispersal could account for the diversification of Muehlenbeckia, which has a "Gondwanan" distribution. Eighty-one species of Polygonaceae were analysed with MrBayes to infer species relationships. One nuclear (nrITS and three chloroplast markers (the trnL-trnF spacer region, matK and ndhF genes were used. The molecular data were also analysed with Beast to estimate divergence times. Seven calibration points including fossil pollen and a leaf fossil of Muehlenbeckia were used to infer node ages. Results of the Beast analyses indicate an age of 110.9 (exponential/lognormal priors/118.7 (uniform priors million years (Myr with an uncertainty interval of (90.7-125.0 Myr for the stem age of Polygonaceae. This age is older than previously thought (Maastrichtian, approximately 65.5-70.6 Myr. The estimated divergence time for Muehlenbeckia is 41.0/41.6 (39.6-47.8 Myr and its crown clade is 20.5/22.3 (14.2-33.5 Myr old. Because the breakup of Gondwana occurred from 95-30 Myr ago, diversification of Muehlenbeckia is best explained by oceanic long-distance and maybe stepping-stone dispersal rather than vicariance. This study is the first to give age estimates for clades of Polygonaceae and functions as a jumping-off point for future studies on the historical biogeography of the family.

  2. Combination of five diagnostic tests to estimate the prevalence of hookworm infection among school-aged children from a rural area of colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreto, Rafael E; Narváez, Javier; Sepúlveda, Natalia A; Velásquez, Fabián C; Díaz, Sandra C; López, Myriam Consuelo; Reyes, Patricia; Moncada, Ligia I

    2017-09-01

    Public health programs for the control of soil-transmitted helminthiases require valid diagnostic tests for surveillance and parasitic control evaluation. However, there is currently no agreement about what test should be used as a gold standard for the diagnosis of hookworm infection. Still, in presence of concurrent data for multiple tests it is possible to use statistical models to estimate measures of test performance and prevalence. The aim of this study was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of five parallel tests (direct microscopic examination, Kato-Katz, Harada-Mori, modified Ritchie-Frick, and culture in agar plate) to detect hookworm infections in a sample of school-aged children from a rural area in Colombia. We used both, a frequentist approach, and Bayesian latent class models to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of five tests for hookworm detection, and to estimate the prevalence of hookworm infection in absence of a Gold Standard. The Kato-Katz and agar plate methods had an overall agreement of 95% and kappa coefficient of 0.76. Different models estimated a sensitivity between 76% and 92% for the agar plate technique, and 52% to 87% for the Kato-Katz technique. The other tests had lower sensitivity. All tests had specificity between 95% and 98%. The prevalence estimated by the Kato-Katz and Agar plate methods for different subpopulations varied between 10% and 14%, and was consistent with the prevalence estimated from the combination of all tests. The Harada-Mori, Ritchie-Frick and direct examination techniques resulted in lower and disparate prevalence estimates. Bayesian approaches assuming imperfect specificity resulted in lower prevalence estimates than the frequentist approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Secondary dentine as a sole parameter for age estimation: Comparison and reliability of qualitative and quantitative methods among North Western adult Indians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasbir Arora

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The indestructible nature of teeth against most of the environmental abuses makes its use in disaster victim identification (DVI. The present study has been undertaken to examine the reliability of Gustafson’s qualitative method and Kedici’s quantitative method of measuring secondary dentine for age estimation among North Western adult Indians. 196 (M = 85; F = 111 single rooted teeth were collected from the Department of Oral Health Sciences, PGIMER, Chandigarh. Ground sections were prepared and the amount of secondary dentine formed was scored qualitatively according to Gustafson’s (0–3 scoring system (method 1 and quantitatively following Kedici’s micrometric measurement method (method 2. Out of 196 teeth 180 samples (M = 80; F = 100 were found to be suitable for measuring secondary dentine following Kedici’s method. Absolute mean error of age was calculated by both methodologies. Results clearly showed that in pooled data, method 1 gave an error of ±10.4 years whereas method 2 exhibited an error of approximately ±13 years. A statistically significant difference was noted in absolute mean error of age between two methods of measuring secondary dentine for age estimation. Further, it was also revealed that teeth extracted for periodontal reasons severely decreased the accuracy of Kedici’s method however, the disease had no effect while estimating age by Gustafson’s method. No significant gender differences were noted in the absolute mean error of age by both methods which suggest that there is no need to separate data on the basis of gender.

  4. Collection and analysis of existing information on applicability of investigation methods for estimation of beginning age of faulting in present faulting pattern

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doke, Ryosuke; Yasue, Ken-ichi; Tanikawa, Shin-ichi; Nakayasu, Akio; Niizato, Tadafumi; Tanaka, Takenobu; Aoki, Michinori; Sekiya, Ayako

    2011-12-01

    In the field of R and D programs of a geological disposal of high level radioactive waste, it is great importance to develop a set of investigation and analysis techniques for the assessment of long-term geosphere stability over a geological time, which means that any changes of geological environment will not significantly impact on the long-term safety of a geological disposal system. In Japanese archipelago, crustal movements are so active that uplift and subsidence are remarkable in recent several hundreds of thousands of years. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the long-term geosphere stability taking into account a topographic change caused by crustal movements. One of the factors for the topographic change is the movement of an active fault, which is a geological process to release a strain accumulated by plate motion. A beginning age of the faulting in the present faulting pattern suggests the beginning age of neotectonic activities around the active fault, and also provides basic information to identifying the stage of a geomorphic development of mountains. Therefore, the age of faulting in the present faulting pattern is important information to estimate a topographic change in the future on the mountain regions of Japan. In this study, existing information related to methods for the estimation of the beginning age of the faulting in the present faulting pattern on the active fault were collected and reviewed. A principle of method, noticing points and technical know-hows in the application of the methods, data uncertainty, and so on were extracted from the existing information. Based on these extracted information, task-flows indicating working process on the estimation of the beginning age for the faulting of the active fault were illustrated on each method. Additionally, the distribution map of the beginning age with accuracy of faulting in the present faulting pattern on the active fault was illustrated. (author)

  5. Is a CT-scan of the medial clavicle epiphysis a good exam to attest to the 18-year threshold in forensic age estimation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houpert, Tyffanie; Rérolle, Camille; Savall, Frédéric; Telmon, Norbert; Saint-Martin, Pauline

    2016-03-01

    Computed tomography (CT) scan of the medial clavicular epiphysis is one of the methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics to estimate the age of living individuals. The aim of our study was to assess the relationship between the skeletal maturation of the sternal end of the clavicle and the chronological age in a sample of French individuals, using a nine-stage classification. We retrospectively reviewed 319 chest CT-scans of individuals aged 15-30 years old (252 males, 67 females). Among males and females, all individuals with a complete fusion, or an ongoing fusion of more than one third of the total surface of the metaphysis were at least 18 years old. Our results were consistent with data in the literature indicating that individuals with a complete fused clavicle were at least 18 years old. Similar studies with the same methods allow for creating a database of samples from different countries to confirm the validity of this method and its excellent results in forensic age estimation of living individuals. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  6. Influence of Estimated Training Status on Anti and Pro-Oxidant Activity, Nitrite Concentration, and Blood Pressure in Middle-Aged and Older Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacomini, André M; Dias, Danielle da Silva; Brito, Janaina de Oliveira; da Silva, Roberta F; Monteiro, Henrique L; Llesuy, Susana; De Angelis, Kátia; Amaral, Sandra L; Zago, Anderson S

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the association between anti and pro-oxidant activity, nitrite concentration, and blood pressure (BP) in middle-aged and older women with different levels of estimated training status (TS). The sample consisted of 155 females (50-84 years) who were submitted to a physical examination to evaluate estimated TS through the "Functional Fitness Battery Test," BP measurements, and plasma blood samples to evaluate pro-oxidant and antioxidant activity and nitrite concentrations. Participants were separated by age into a middle-aged group (<65 years) and an older (≥65 years) group and then subdivided in each group according to TS. Blood biochemistry was similar between groups. On the other hand, protein oxidation was lower in participants with higher TS, independent of age. Older females with higher TS presented higher nitrite concentrations, lower lipoperoxidation, and lower values of BP compared with those with lower TS. Lower GPx activity was observed in participants with higher TS compared with middle-aged with lower TS. Thus, our results suggest that good levels of TS may be associated with lower oxidative stress and higher nitrite concentration and may contribute to maintain normal or reduced blood pressure values.

  7. Influence of Estimated Training Status on Anti and Pro-Oxidant Activity, Nitrite Concentration, and Blood Pressure in Middle-Aged and Older Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacomini, André M.; Dias, Danielle da Silva; Brito, Janaina de Oliveira; da Silva, Roberta F.; Monteiro, Henrique L.; Llesuy, Susana; De Angelis, Kátia; Amaral, Sandra L.; Zago, Anderson S.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the association between anti and pro-oxidant activity, nitrite concentration, and blood pressure (BP) in middle-aged and older women with different levels of estimated training status (TS). The sample consisted of 155 females (50–84 years) who were submitted to a physical examination to evaluate estimated TS through the “Functional Fitness Battery Test,” BP measurements, and plasma blood samples to evaluate pro-oxidant and antioxidant activity and nitrite concentrations. Participants were separated by age into a middle-aged group (<65 years) and an older (≥65 years) group and then subdivided in each group according to TS. Blood biochemistry was similar between groups. On the other hand, protein oxidation was lower in participants with higher TS, independent of age. Older females with higher TS presented higher nitrite concentrations, lower lipoperoxidation, and lower values of BP compared with those with lower TS. Lower GPx activity was observed in participants with higher TS compared with middle-aged with lower TS. Thus, our results suggest that good levels of TS may be associated with lower oxidative stress and higher nitrite concentration and may contribute to maintain normal or reduced blood pressure values. PMID:28326041

  8. Non-destructive estimation of leaf area for different plant ages and accessions of Capsicum annuum L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, de E.A.M.; Groenwold, R.; Kanne, H.J.; Stam, P.; Marcelis, L.F.M.; Voorrips, R.E.

    2004-01-01

    Accurate measurements of leaf area are important for agronomic and physiological studies. To be able to perform repeated measurements of leaf area on single (genetically unique) plants, a method was developed to estimate leaf area from non-destructive measurements in Capsicum annuum L. independent

  9. Dental age estimation by Demirjian′s and Nolla′s method: A comparative study among children attending a dental college in Lucknow (UP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shruti Sinha

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Estimation of age is an important aspect of forensic science. The assessment of age is useful in forensic odontology and in treatments plans of orthodontic and pedodontic patients. Aims and Objectives: The aim of the study was to determine dental age from orthopantomograph using Demirjian′s method and Nolla′s method. It was also to evaluate the interrelationship between chronological and dental age according to both these methods and to evaluate which technique was better. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in the Department of Oral Medicine and Radiology of Babu Banarasi Das College of Dental Sciences (UP, Northern India. A total of 300 subjects (150 girls and 150 boys of age group from 6 years to 15 years were enrolled. These subjects were grouped by a difference of 1 year into 10 groups (each group comprised of 30 subjects: 15 males and 15 females. For every individual included in the study a panoramic radiograph was taken, with standard parameters and adequate protective measures. Results: The results imply that Demirjian′s method is applicable to all age groups and for both genders with better accuracy than Nolla′s method, which had a limited utility in younger age group. Thus Demirjian′s method is a better method when compared to Nolla′s method in Northern Indian population.

  10. Radiocarbon Dating of an Olive Tree Cross-Section: New Insights on Growth Patterns and Implications for Age Estimation of Olive Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yael Ehrlich

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The age of living massive olive trees is often assumed to be between hundreds and even thousands of years. These estimations are usually based on the girth of the trunk and an extrapolation based on a theoretical annual growth rate. It is difficult to objectively verify these claims, as a monumental tree may not be cut down for analysis of its cross-section. In addition, the inner and oldest part of the trunk in olive trees usually rots, precluding the possibility of carting out radiocarbon analysis of material from the first years of life of the tree. In this work we present a cross-section of an olive tree, previously estimated to be hundreds of years old, which was cut down post-mortem in 2013. The cross-section was radiocarbon dated at numerous points following the natural growth pattern, which was made possible to observe by viewing the entire cross-section. Annual growth rate values were calculated and compared between different radii. The cross-section also revealed a nearly independent segment of growth, which would clearly offset any estimations based solely on girth calculations. Multiple piths were identified, indicating the beginning of branching within the trunk. Different radii were found to have comparable growth rates, resulting in similar estimates dating the piths to the 19th century. The estimated age of the piths represent a terminus ante quem for the age of the tree, as these are piths of separate branches. However, the tree is likely not many years older than the dated piths, and certainly not centuries older. The oldest radiocarbon-datable material in this cross-section was less than 200 years old, which is in agreement with most other radiocarbon dates of internal wood from living olive trees, rarely older than 300 years.

  11. A variation of the housing unit method for estimating the age and gender distribution of small, rural areas: A case study of the local expert procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, J.F.; Roe, L.K.; Williams, C.A.; Swanson, D.A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes the methodologies used in the development of a demographic data base established in support of the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project Radiological Monitoring Plan (RadMP). It also examines the suitability of a survey-based procedure for estimating population in small, rural areas. The procedure is a variation of the Housing Unit Method. It employs the use of local experts enlisted to provide information about the demographic characteristics of households randomly selected from residential units sample frames developed from utility records. The procedure is nonintrusive and less costly than traditional survey data collection efforts. Because the procedure is based on random sampling, confidence intervals can be constructed around the population estimated by the technique. The results of a case study are provided in which the total population, and age and gender of the population, is estimated for three unincorporated communities in rural, southern Nevada

  12. Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

    OpenAIRE

    Julia L Finkelstein; Mark D Schleinitz; Hélène Carabin; Stephen T McGarvey

    2008-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden ...

  13. Stratigraphy and age estimate of Neogene shallow marine fossiliferous deposits in Brunei Darussalam (Ambug Hill, Tutong district)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocsis, László; Briguglio, Antonino; Roslim, Amajida; Razak, Hazirah; Ćorić, Stjepan; Frijia, Gianluca

    2018-06-01

    The Ambug Hill in Brunei is an exceptional geological site where a series of siliciclastic rocks crops out with some layers extremely rich in marine fossils. Such fossiliferous outcrops are extremely rare in the northern part of Borneo and their description is of primary importance as their fossil content can be used to correlate the regional depositional sequences with global biostratigraphic zonations. In this work we present for the first time a detailed sedimentary profile completed with Sr-isotopes and biostratigraphic dating. The succession is divided into four sedimentary units. The first unit comprises bioturbated sandstone followed by a second unit of clay-silt rich levels whose first 9.5 m contain rich marine fossil assemblages. Calcareous nannoplankton data indicate a Late Tortonian - Early Messinian (NN11) age, which is confirmed by Sr-isotope dating derived from bivalves giving a numerical age range from 8.3 to 6.2 My. After a major emersion surface, the third sedimentary unit of sand- and siltstone lacks suitable fossils for bio- and isotope stratigraphy. The age of emersion and the related sedimentary gap can be either correlated with the Me1 (7.25 My) or the Me2 (5.73 My) sequence boundary. A fourth, thin sedimentary unit is recognized on the top of the profile with silt- and claystone beds without age diagnostic remains and calcareous fossils.

  14. Sex and age specific prediction formulas for estimating body composition from bioelectrical impedance : a cross-validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deurenberg, P.; van der Kooy, K; Leenen, R; Weststrate, J A; Seidell, J C

    In 827 male and female subjects, with a large variation in body composition and an age range of 7-83 years, body composition was measured by densitometry, anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance. The relationship between densitometrically determined fat free mass (FFM) with body impedance (R),

  15. Estimated Prevalence of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in a Sample of Panamanian School-Aged Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Emelyn Y.; Velarde, Silvia; Britton, Gabrielle B.

    2011-01-01

    The present study investigated the prevalence of ADHD in a school sample of children ages 6-11 years in the city of Panama. The assessment battery included the Conners' Parent and Teacher Rating Scales, the Structured Developmental History of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children (BASC-2), and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children…

  16. Krypton-81, Helium-4 and Carbon-14 based estimation of groundwater ages in the Guarani Aquifer System: implications for the He-4 geochronometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, P. K.; Chang, H. K.; Gastmans, D.; Sturchio, N. C.; Araguas, L.; Matsumoto, T.; Lu, Z.; Jiang, W.; Yokochi, R.; Mueller, P.

    2012-12-01

    Characterization of aquifer systems remains a challenge, particularly for large aquifers with limited hydrogeological information. Groundwater age is an important parameter that integrates aquifer recharge and flow dynamics and provides the ability to reliably constrain groundwater models. We have used multiple isotope tracers (C-14, He-4, and Kr-81) to estimate the age of groundwater along a 400-km transect in the north-eastern part of the Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) in Brazil. Carbon-14 measurements were made with an AMS, He-4 by mass-spectrometry, and Kr-81 by atom trap trace analysis (ATTA). Groundwater samples were collected along a groundwater flow path that runs from the outcrop area in the east to the deep confined section in the west, where the aquifer is up to about 1000 m deep. Present groundwater recharge occurs in the outcrop areas, as indicated by the presence of tritium and modern 14C. Carbon-14 activities reach values below detection limit at relatively short distances (a few km) from the outcrop. Abundance of 81Kr (half-life 229 Ka), in samples free of C-14, decreases from 0.81±0.11 (expressed as (81Kr/Kr)sample/(81Kr/Kr)air) in the east to 0.18±0.03 in the western-most sample (estimated age = 566±60 ka). Measured 4He-excess is far above that expected from in-situ production rates in sandstone aquifers and overestimates the age by several orders of magnitude. We used 81Kr ages to calibrate the 4He geochronometer which indicates a basal flux of about 2.8 x10-11 cm3STP He/cm2/a. This flux is lower than most estimates of basal flux in previous studies and will allow a wider use of 4He for groundwater dating and aquifer characterization.

  17. Estimating volumes of the pituitary gland from T1-weighted magnetic-resonance images: effects of age, puberty, testosterone, and estradiol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Angelita Pui-Yee; Pipitone, Jon; Park, Min Tae M; Dickie, Erin W; Leonard, Gabriel; Perron, Michel; Pike, Bruce G; Richer, Louis; Veillette, Suzanne; Chakravarty, M Mallar; Pausova, Zdenka; Paus, Tomáš

    2014-07-01

    The pituitary gland is a key structure in the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis--it plays an important role in sexual maturation during puberty. Despite its small size, its volume can be quantified using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Here, we study a cohort of 962 typically developing adolescents from the Saguenay Youth Study and estimate pituitary volumes using a newly developed multi-atlas segmentation method known as the MAGeT Brain algorithm. We found that age and puberty stage (controlled for age) each predicts adjusted pituitary volumes (controlled for total brain volume) in both males and females. Controlling for the effects of age and puberty stage, total testosterone and estradiol levels also predict adjusted pituitary volumes in males and pre-menarche females, respectively. These findings demonstrate that the pituitary gland grows during adolescence, and its volume relates to circulating plasma-levels of sex steroids in both males and females. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The effects of healthy aging, amnestic mild cognitive impairment, and Alzheimer's disease on recollection, familiarity and false recognition, estimated by an associative process-dissociation recognition procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitarque, Alfonso; Meléndez, Juan C; Sales, Alicia; Mayordomo, Teresa; Satorres, Encar; Escudero, Joaquín; Algarabel, Salvador

    2016-10-01

    Given the uneven experimental results in the literature regarding whether or not familiarity declines with healthy aging and cognitive impairment, we compare four samples (healthy young people, healthy older people, older people with amnestic mild cognitive impairment - aMCI -, and older people with Alzheimer's disease - AD -) on an associative recognition task, which, following the logic of the process-dissociation procedure, allowed us to obtain corrected estimates of recollection, familiarity and false recognition. The results show that familiarity does not decline with healthy aging, but it does with cognitive impairment, whereas false recognition increases with healthy aging, but declines significantly with cognitive impairment. These results support the idea that the deficits detected in recollection, familiarity, or false recognition in older people could be used as early prodromal markers of cognitive impairment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Evaluation of alternative age-based methods for estimating relative abundance from survey data in relation to assessment models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper Willestofte; Nielsen, Anders; Kristensen, Kasper

    2014-01-01

    Indices of abundance from fishery-independent trawl surveys constitute an important source of information for many fish stock assessments. Indices are often calculated using area stratified sample means on age-disaggregated data, and finally treated in stock assessment models as independent...... observations. We evaluate a series of alternative methods for calculating indices of abundance from trawl survey data (delta-lognormal, delta-gamma, and Tweedie using Generalized Additive Models) as well as different error structures for these indices when used as input in an age-based stock assessment model...... the different indices produced. The stratified mean method is found much more imprecise than the alternatives based on GAMs, which are found to be similar. Having time-varying index variances is found to be of minor importance, whereas the independence assumption is not only violated but has significant impact...

  20. The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey (NGVS). XXVI. The Issues of Photometric Age and Metallicity Estimates for Globular Clusters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powalka, Mathieu; Lançon, Ariane; Duc, Pierre-Alain [Observatoire Astronomique de Strasbourg, Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, UMR 7550, 11 rue de l’Université, F-67000 Strasbourg (France); Puzia, Thomas H.; Muñoz, Roberto P.; Zhang, Hongxin [Institute of Astrophysics, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 7820436 Macul, Santiago (Chile); Peng, Eric W. [Department of Astronomy, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Liu, Chengze [Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); Blakeslee, John P.; Côté, Patrick; Ferrarese, Laura; Roediger, Joel; Gwyn, S. D. J. [National Research Council of Canada, Herzberg Astronomy and Astrophysics Program, Victoria, BC V9E 2E7 (Canada); Sánchez-Janssen, Rúben [UK Astronomy Technology Centre, Royal Observatory Edinburgh, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Durrell, Patrick R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Youngstown State University, Youngstown, OH (United States); Cuillandre, Jean-Charles [AIM Paris Saclay, CNRS/INSU, CEA/Irfu,Université Paris Diderot, Orme des Merisiers, F-91191 Gif sur Yvette cedex (France); Guhathakurta, Puragra [UCO/Lick Observatory, University of California, Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Hudelot, Patrick, E-mail: mathieu.powalka@astro.unistra.fr [Institut d’Astrophysique de Paris, UMR 7095 CNRS and UPMC, 98bis Bd Arago, F-75014 Paris (France); and others

    2017-08-01

    Large samples of globular clusters (GC) with precise multi-wavelength photometry are becoming increasingly available and can be used to constrain the formation history of galaxies. We present the results of an analysis of Milky Way (MW) and Virgo core GCs based on 5 optical-near-infrared colors and 10 synthetic stellar population models. For the MW GCs, the models tend to agree on photometric ages and metallicities, with values similar to those obtained with previous studies. When used with Virgo core GCs, for which photometry is provided by the Next Generation Virgo cluster Survey (NGVS), the same models generically return younger ages. This is a consequence of the systematic differences observed between the locus occupied by Virgo core GCs and models in panchromatic color space. Only extreme fine-tuning of the adjustable parameters available to us can make the majority of the best-fit ages old. Although we cannot exclude that the formation history of the Virgo core may lead to more conspicuous populations of relatively young GCs than in other environments, we emphasize that the intrinsic properties of the Virgo GCs are likely to differ systematically from those assumed in the models. Thus, the large wavelength coverage and photometric quality of modern GC samples, such as those used here, is not by itself sufficient to better constrain the GC formation histories. Models matching the environment-dependent characteristics of GCs in multi-dimensional color space are needed to improve the situation.

  1. International distribution and age estimation of the Portuguese BRCA2 c.156_157insAlu founder mutation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peixoto, Ana; Santos, Catarina; Pinheiro, Manuela

    2011-01-01

    The c.156_157insAlu BRCA2 mutation has so far only been reported in hereditary breast/ovarian cancer (HBOC) families of Portuguese origin. Since this mutation is not detectable using the commonly used screening methodologies and must be specifically sought, we screened for this rearrangement...... individuals requesting predictive testing living in France and in the USA, all being Portuguese immigrants. After performing an extensive haplotype study in carrier families, we estimate that this founder mutation occurred 558 ± 215 years ago. We further demonstrate significant quantitative differences...... HBOC families from Portugal or with Portuguese ancestry are specifically tested for this rearrangement....

  2. International distribution and age estimation of the Portuguese BRCA2 c.156_157insAlu founder mutation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peixoto, Ana; Santos, Catarina; Pinheiro, Manuela

    2011-01-01

    The c.156_157insAlu BRCA2 mutation has so far only been reported in hereditary breast/ovarian cancer (HBOC) families of Portuguese origin. Since this mutation is not detectable using the commonly used screening methodologies and must be specifically sought, we screened for this rearrangement...... individuals requesting predictive testing living in France and in the USA, all being Portuguese immigrants. After performing an extensive haplotype study in carrier families, we estimate that this founder mutation occurred 558 +/- 215 years ago. We further demonstrate significant quantitative differences...... HBOC families from Portugal or with Portuguese ancestry are specifically tested for this rearrangement....

  3. The relationship between self-estimated intravaginal ejaculatory latency time and International Prostate Symptom Score in middle-aged men complaining of ejaculating prematurely in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiansheng; Tang, Dongdong; Xu, Chuan; Gao, Pan; Hao, Zongyao; Zhou, Jun; Liang, Chaozhao

    2015-03-01

    Some factors associated with the four premature ejaculation (PE) syndromes have been studied, but the association between International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and the four PE syndromes has not been investigated. We performed this study to evaluate the association between IPSS and intravaginal ejaculatory latency time (IELT) in men with the four PE syndromes. From June 2012 to January 2014, a total of 690 men aged 40-59 years complaining of ejaculating prematurely and another 452 male healthy subjects of the same age without these complaints were included in this study. Men with the complaints of ejaculating prematurely were classified as one of the four PE syndromes: lifelong PE, acquired PE (APE), variable PE, and subjective PE. Each of them completed a detailed questionnaire including information on demographics, medical and sexual history (e.g., self-estimated IELT), IPSS, and International Index of Erectile Function-5. Associations between IPSS and self-estimated IELT in middle-aged men with the four PE syndromes. Men complaining of ejaculating prematurely reported higher IPSS (11.2 ± 6.0 vs. 5.5 ± 3.3 ) and shorter self-estimated IELT (2.1 ± 1.6 minutes vs. 4.8 ± 3.3) than men without complaints (P men with the four PE syndromes showed significant correlations with IPSS (P men with PE complaints (adjusted r = -0.378, P men with APE (adjusted r = -0.502, P Men complaining of ejaculating prematurely reported worse IPSS than men without these complaints. Self-estimated IELT was negatively associated with IPSS in men complaining of ejaculating prematurely, and the correlation was the strongest in men with APE. © 2015 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  4. Estimating the age of the adult stages of the blow flies Lucilia sericata and Calliphora vicina (Diptera: Calliphoridae) by means of the cuticular hydrocarbon n-pentacosane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Victoria; Pogoda, Werner; Verhoff, Marcel A; Toennes, Stefan W; Amendt, Jens

    2017-09-01

    Age estimation of insects like blow flies plays an important role in forensic entomology and can answer questions in regard to time of death. So far the focus is on the immature stages of these insects, but recently the adult fly became a target of interest. It has been established that the profile of specific cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) changes in a consistent pattern as adult insects age; thus, their analysis could be a promising tool for the age estimation of adult insects. We investigated the CHC n-pentacosane (nC25) on the legs of the adult blow flies Lucilia sericata and Calliphora vicina with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The flies were kept at room temperature (17°C±2°C) and 12:12 L:D from Day 1 to Day 20 post-emergence. For each of five flies per species, the amount of nC25 on all legs was determined daily. The amounts of nC25 on C. vicina increased linearly (R 2 =0.949). No significant difference between sexes could be detected. While L. sericata showed the same linear increase in general, we found significant (page is constructed from these data. Although the influence of various environmental factors, e.g., fluctuating temperatures, still needs to be tested, nC25 seems to be a promising tool for the age estimation of adult flies. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. A random cluster survey and a convenience sample give comparable estimates of immunity to vaccine preventable diseases in children of school age in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Heath; Riddell, Michaela A; Gidding, Heather F; Nolan, Terry; Gilbert, Gwendolyn L

    2002-08-19

    We compared estimates of the age-specific population immunity to measles, mumps, rubella, hepatitis B and varicella zoster viruses in Victorian school children obtained by a national sero-survey, using a convenience sample of residual sera from diagnostic laboratories throughout Australia, with those from a three-stage random cluster survey. When grouped according to school age (primary or secondary school) there was no significant difference in the estimates of immunity to measles, mumps, hepatitis B or varicella. Compared with the convenience sample, the random cluster survey estimated higher immunity to rubella in samples from both primary (98.7% versus 93.6%, P = 0.002) and secondary school students (98.4% versus 93.2%, P = 0.03). Despite some limitations, this study suggests that the collection of a convenience sample of sera from diagnostic laboratories is an appropriate sampling strategy to provide population immunity data that will inform Australia's current and future immunisation policies. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

  6. Fat Mass Is Positively Associated with Estimated Hip Bone Strength among Chinese Men Aged 50 Years and above with Low Levels of Lean Mass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guiyuan Han

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationships of fat mass (FM and lean mass (LM with estimated hip bone strength in Chinese men aged 50–80 years (median value: 62.0 years. A cross-sectional study including 889 men was conducted in Guangzhou, China. Body composition and hip bone parameters were generated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The relationships of the LM index (LMI and the FM index (FMI with bone phenotypes were detected by generalised additive models and multiple linear regression. The associations between the FMI and the bone variables in LMI tertiles were further analysed. The FMI possessed a linear relationship with greater estimated hip bone strength after adjustment for the potential confounders (p < 0.05. Linear relationships were also observed for the LMI with most bone phenotypes, except for the cross-sectional area (p < 0.05. The contribution of the LMI (4.0%–12.8% was greater than that of the FMI (2.0%–5.7%. The associations between the FMI and bone phenotypes became weaker after controlling for LMI. Further analyses showed that estimated bone strength ascended with FMI in the lowest LMI tertile (p < 0.05, but not in the subgroups with a higher LMI. This study suggested that LM played a critical role in bone health in middle-aged and elderly Chinese men, and that the maintenance of adequate FM could help to promote bone acquisition in relatively thin men.

  7. Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Baguelin

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years. The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI: 52%, 68% followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%, rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.

  8. Dental Age Estimation (DAE): Data management for tooth development stages including the third molar. Appropriate censoring of Stage H, the final stage of tooth development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Graham J; McDonald, Fraser; Andiappan, Manoharan; Lucas, Victoria S

    2015-11-01

    The final stage of dental development of third molars is usually helpful to indicate whether or not a subject is aged over 18 years. A complexity is that the final stage of development is unlimited in its upper border. Investigators usually select an inappropriate upper age limit or censor point for this tooth development stage. The literature was searched for appropriate data sets for dental age estimation and those that provided the count (n), the mean (x¯), and the standard deviation (sd) for each of the tooth development stages. The Demirjian G and Demirjian H were used for this study. Upper and lower limits of the Stage G and Stage H data were calculated limiting the data to plus or minus three standard deviations from the mean. The upper border of Stage H was limited by appropriate censoring at the maximum value for Stage G. The maximum age at attainment from published data, for Stage H, ranged from 22.60 years to 34.50 years. These data were explored to demonstrate how censoring provides an estimate for the correct maximum age for the final stage of Stage H as 21.64 years for UK Caucasians. This study shows that confining the data array of individual tooth developments stages to ± 3sd provides a reliable and logical way of censoring the data for tooth development stages with a Normal distribution of data. For Stage H this is inappropriate as it is unbounded in its upper limit. The use of a censored data array for Stage H using Percentile values is appropriate. This increases the reliability of using third molar Stage H alone to determine whether or not an individual is over 18 years old. For Stage H, individual ancestral groups should be censored using the same technique. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  9. Assessment of the effect of population and diary sampling methods on estimation of school-age children exposure to fine particles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, W W; Frey, H Christopher; Lau, Alexis K H

    2014-12-01

    Population and diary sampling methods are employed in exposure models to sample simulated individuals and their daily activity on each simulation day. Different sampling methods may lead to variations in estimated human exposure. In this study, two population sampling methods (stratified-random and random-random) and three diary sampling methods (random resampling, diversity and autocorrelation, and Markov-chain cluster [MCC]) are evaluated. Their impacts on estimated children's exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) are quantified via case studies for children in Wake County, NC for July 2002. The estimated mean daily average exposure is 12.9 μg/m(3) for simulated children using the stratified population sampling method, and 12.2 μg/m(3) using the random sampling method. These minor differences are caused by the random sampling among ages within census tracts. Among the three diary sampling methods, there are differences in the estimated number of individuals with multiple days of exposures exceeding a benchmark of concern of 25 μg/m(3) due to differences in how multiday longitudinal diaries are estimated. The MCC method is relatively more conservative. In case studies evaluated here, the MCC method led to 10% higher estimation of the number of individuals with repeated exposures exceeding the benchmark. The comparisons help to identify and contrast the capabilities of each method and to offer insight regarding implications of method choice. Exposure simulation results are robust to the two population sampling methods evaluated, and are sensitive to the choice of method for simulating longitudinal diaries, particularly when analyzing results for specific microenvironments or for exposures exceeding a benchmark of concern. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Estimating past hepatitis C infection risk from reported risk factor histories: implications for imputing age of infection and modeling fibrosis progression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Busch Michael P

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is prevalent and often causes hepatic fibrosis, which can progress to cirrhosis and cause liver cancer or liver failure. Study of fibrosis progression often relies on imputing the time of infection, often as the reported age of first injection drug use. We sought to examine the accuracy of such imputation and implications for modeling factors that influence progression rates. Methods We analyzed cross-sectional data on hepatitis C antibody status and reported risk factor histories from two large studies, the Women's Interagency HIV Study and the Urban Health Study, using modern survival analysis methods for current status data to model past infection risk year by year. We compared fitted distributions of past infection risk to reported age of first injection drug use. Results Although injection drug use appeared to be a very strong risk factor, models for both studies showed that many subjects had considerable probability of having been infected substantially before or after their reported age of first injection drug use. Persons reporting younger age of first injection drug use were more likely to have been infected after, and persons reporting older age of first injection drug use were more likely to have been infected before. Conclusion In cross-sectional studies of fibrosis progression where date of HCV infection is estimated from risk factor histories, modern methods such as multiple imputation should be used to account for the substantial uncertainty about when infection occurred. The models presented here can provide the inputs needed by such methods. Using reported age of first injection drug use as the time of infection in studies of fibrosis progression is likely to produce a spuriously strong association of younger age of infection with slower rate of progression.

  11. Fat Mass Is Positively Associated with Estimated Hip Bone Strength among Chinese Men Aged 50 Years and above with Low Levels of Lean Mass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guiyuan; Chen, Yu-Ming; Huang, Hua; Chen, Zhanyong; Jing, Lipeng; Xiao, Su-Mei

    2017-04-24

    This study investigated the relationships of fat mass (FM) and lean mass (LM) with estimated hip bone strength in Chinese men aged 50-80 years (median value: 62.0 years). A cross-sectional study including 889 men was conducted in Guangzhou, China. Body composition and hip bone parameters were generated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The relationships of the LM index (LMI) and the FM index (FMI) with bone phenotypes were detected by generalised additive models and multiple linear regression. The associations between the FMI and the bone variables in LMI tertiles were further analysed. The FMI possessed a linear relationship with greater estimated hip bone strength after adjustment for the potential confounders ( p maintenance of adequate FM could help to promote bone acquisition in relatively thin men.

  12. Population parameters for dose calculations: initial estimates of municipal, city and provincial age group population within 20, 50 and 80 kilometers of the PNPP-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramirez, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    The study attempts to determine the total population and population growth rates of four (4) age groups per municipality/city within twenty (20), fifty (50) and eighty (80) kilometers from the Philippine Nuclear Power Plant (PNPP-1). The population estimates were done at five (5) year intervals covering the next fifty years. The latest National Census and Statistics Office (NCSO) population projections at the provincial level under the assumption of moderate fertility and moderate mentality decline (series no. 2) were used to derive the estimates of the total population and population growth rates at the minicipality/city levels. The Bureau of Coastal and Geodetic Survey (BCGS) and the NCSO maps served as the bases for delineating the geographic and political boundaries covered by the study. The results will complement the findings of the PAEC project on agricultural parameters for radiation dose calculations and useful for related environmental studies. (author)

  13. Cerebral Blood Flow and A beta-Amyloid Estimates by WARM Analysis of [C-11]PiB Uptake Distinguish among and between Neurodegenerative Disorders and Aging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodell, Anders B.; O'Keefe, Graeme; Rowe, Christopher C.

    2017-01-01

    groups as a whole, sCBF estimates revealed the greatest discrimination between the patient and HC groups. WARM resolves a major issue of amyloid load quantification with [11C]PiB in human brain by determining absolute sCBF and amyloid load measures from the same images. The two parameter approach......Background: We report results of the novel Washout Allometric Reference Method (WARM) that uses estimates of cerebral blood flow and amyloid load from the same [11C]Pittsburgh Compound B ([11C]PiB) retention maps in brain to distinguish between patients with different forms dementia, including...... with Lewy bodies (DLB), five patients with frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD), five patients with mild cognitive impairment, and 29 age-matched healthy control subjects (HC)], underwent analysis of PiB delivery and retention by means of WARM for quantitation of [11C]PiB's binding potentials (BPND...

  14. Estimation of porosity of Khewra sandstone of cambrian age by using helium porosimeter and its application in reservoir evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, M.S.; Bhatti, A.A.; Gillani, S.T.A.; Raza, A.

    2012-01-01

    Estimation of petrophysical properties of the rock formations played decisive role in all the processes of petroleum exploration. The Cambrian sequence is well established as reservoir rocks in the various parts of the world from where petroleum is being tapped. The Cambrian sequence has been encountered in the Potwar area and limited petroleum is being produced from the Adhi Oil Field. The Khewra Sandstone of the Cambrian sequence is outcropped in the Khewra Gorge, Salt Range Pakistan below an unconformity qf the Tobra Formation. For the assessment of porosity and reservoir characterization Helium Porosimeter has been used, six samples Qf the upper horizon were collected from various locations of the Khewra Gorge and the Khewra Choha Sadden Shah road side section; cores were prepared from these samples according to the instrument standard. The results of this study revealed that the upper horizon Qf the Khewra Sandstone Formation has good porosity ranging from 18.76% to 21.07%, porosity varied in different parts of the formation. These results are in good agreement with the internationally reported values for petroleum reservoir of the Cambrian sandstone. (author)

  15. Evolution on a volcanic conveyor belt: using phylogeographic reconstructions and K-Ar-based ages of the Hawaiian Islands to estimate molecular evolutionary rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischer, R C; McIntosh, C E; Tarr, C L

    1998-04-01

    The Hawaiian Islands form as the Pacific Plate moves over a 'hot spot' in the earth's mantle where magma extrudes through the crust to build huge shield volcanos. The islands subside and erode as the plate carries them to the north-west, eventually to become coral atolls and seamounts. Thus islands are ordered linearly by age, with the oldest islands in the north-west (e.g. Kauai at 5.1 Ma) and the youngest in the south-east (e.g. Hawaii at 0.43 Ma). K-Ar estimates of the date of an island's formation provide a maximum age for the taxa inhabiting the island. These ages can be used to calibrate rates of molecular change under the following assumptions: (i) K-Ar dates are accurate; (ii) tree topologies show that derivation of taxa parallels the timing of island formation; (iii) populations do not colonize long after island emergence; (iv) the coalescent point for sister taxa does not greatly predate the formation of the colonized younger island; (v) saturation effects and (vi) among-lineage rate variation are minimal or correctable; and (vii) unbiased standard errors of distances and regressions can be estimated from multiple pairwise comparisons. We use the approach to obtain overall corrected rate calibrations for: (i) part of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene in Hawaiian drepanidines (0.016 sequence divergence/Myr); (ii) the Yp1 gene in Hawaiian Drosophila (0.019/Myr Kambysellis et al. 1995); and (iii) parts of the mitochondrial 12S and 16S rRNA and tRNAval in Laupala crickets (0.024-0.102/Myr, Shaw 1996). We discuss the reliability of the estimates given the assumptions (i-vii) above and contrast the results with previous calibrations of Adh in Hawaiian Drosophila and chloroplast DNA in lobeliods.

  16. A developmental study of risky decisions on the cake gambling task: age and gender analyses of probability estimation and reward evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Westenberg, P Michiel; Crone, Eveline A

    2008-01-01

    Decision making, or the process of choosing between competing courses of actions, is highly sensitive to age-related change, showing development throughout adolescence. In this study, we tested whether the development of decision making under risk is related to changes in risk-estimation abilities. Participants (N = 93) between ages 8-30 performed a child friendly gambling task, the Cake Gambling task, which was inspired by the Cambridge Gambling Task (Rogers et al., 1999), which has previously been shown to be sensitive to orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) damage. The task allowed comparisons of the contributions to risk perception of (1) the ability to estimate probabilities and (2) evaluate rewards. Adult performance patterns were highly similar to those found in previous reports, showing increased risk taking with increases in the probability of winning and the magnitude of potential reward. Behavioral patterns in children and adolescents did not differ from adult patterns, showing a similar ability for probability estimation and reward evaluation. These data suggest that participants 8 years and older perform like adults in a gambling task, previously shown to depend on the OFC in which all the information needed to make an advantageous decision is given on each trial and no information needs to be inferred from previous behavior. Interestingly, at all ages, females were more risk-averse than males. These results suggest that the increase in real-life risky behavior that is seen in adolescence is not a consequence of changes in risk perception abilities. The findings are discussed in relation to theories about the protracted development of the prefrontal cortex.

  17. In vivo areal modulus of elasticity estimation of the human tympanic membrane system: modelling of middle ear mechanical function in normal young and aged ears

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaihede, Michael Lyhne; Donghua, Liao; Gregersen, H.

    2007-01-01

    The quasi-static elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system can be described by the areal modulus of elasticity determined by a middle ear model. The response of the tympanic membrane to quasi-static pressure changes is determined by its elastic properties. Several clinical problems are r...... finite element analyses. In vivo estimates of Young's modulus in this study were a factor 2-3 smaller than previously found in vitro. No significant age-related differences were found in the elastic properties as expressed by the areal modulus....

  18. THE APPLICATION OF BŰHLMANN-STRAUB MODEL TO THE ESTIMATION OF NET PREMIUM RATES DEPENDING ON THE AGE OF THE INSURED IN THE MOTOR THIRD LIABILITY INSURANCE

    OpenAIRE

    Szymańska, Anna

    2017-01-01

    One of the basic variables used in the process of tariff calculation of premiums in motor liability insurance is the age of the insured. In this type of insurance offered by insurers operating on the Polish market, this variable is taken into account in the ratemaking by discounts and increases in assigned premium, known as the net premiums rates. The aim of this work is to propose a method of rate estimation of net premiums in the groups of the motor third liability insurance portfolio of in...

  19. A collation of recently published Western European formulae for age estimation of subadult skeletal remains: recommendations for forensic anthropology and osteoarchaeology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rissech, Carme; Márquez-Grant, Nicholas; Turbón, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to provide an effective and quick reference guide based on the most useful European formulae recently published for subadult age estimation. All of these formulae derive from studies on postnatal growth of the scapula, innominate, femur, and tibia, based on modern skeletal data (173 ♂, 173 ♀) from five documented collections from Spain, Portugal, and Britain. The formulae were calculated from Inverse Regression. For this reason, these formulae are especially useful for modern samples from Western Europe and in particular on 20th century human remains from the Iberian Peninsula. Eleven formulae were selected as the most useful because they can be applied to individuals from within a wide age range and in individuals of unknown sex. Due to their high reliability and because they derive from documented European skeletal samples, we recommend these formulae be used on individuals of Caucasoid ancestry from Western Europe. © 2012 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  20. Sharp at any Age: Moho boundary thickness estimates along a trans-sect through 2 Ga of tectonic history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servali, A.; Levin, V. L.; VanTongeren, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    In this study we evaluate crustal thickness and Moho sharpness beneath seismic stations in three different tectonic units of the North American continent: the Archean Superior Province, the Proterozoic Grenville Province, and the Paleozoic Appalachian Orogen. Our analysis involves two steps. First, for each site, we produce P-to-S receiver functions (RFs) organized by backazimuth and epicentral distance, and use them to identify the phase most likely representing a conversion from the Moho. Second, we construct averaged RFs for groups of telesismic events located in a similar geographic region, which we employ to examine shapes of Moho P-to-S converted phases in time series with maximum frequencies increasing from 0.25Hz to 2-3 Hz. At some sites we observe a progressive narrowing of a simple Moho converted phase with an increase in frequency, typical of a vertically instantaneous boundary, while at others the converted phase becomes progressively more complex, typical of a diffuse Moho. Thus, we adopt this difference in converted wave shape dependence on increasing frequency as a measure of Moho thickness. Our estimates of Moho thickness range from less than 300 m to over 2 km, with some locations showing evidence for multiple converting boundaries in the 35-50 km depth range. In this study we define "sharp" Moho at those sites where its vertical thickness is less than 1 km. Our results show that sharp Moho is universal in the Archean terranes regardless of surface lithology, likely due to higher Moho temperatures facilitating wide-spread delamination of dense lower crustal rocks. While a sharp Moho is not unique to the Superior Province, all Grenville and Appalachians sites where we find sharp Moho are in regions of granitic plutonism, suggesting a possible general association with reworking and density sorting of the crustal material (e.g. volcanic arc).

  1. On a New Near-Infrared Method to Estimate the Absolute Ages of Star Clusters: NGC 3201 as a First Test Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bono, G.; Stetson, P. B.; VandenBerg, D. A.; Calamida, A.; Dall'Ora, M.; Iannicola, G.; Amico, P.; Di Cecco, A.; Marchetti, E.; Monelli, M.; Sanna, N.; Walker, A. R.; Zoccali, M.; Buonanno, R.; Caputo, F.; Corsi, C. E.; Degl'Innocenti, S.; D'Odorico, S.; Ferraro, I.; Gilmozzi, R.; Melnick, J.; Nonino, M.; Ortolani, S.; Piersimoni, A. M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Pulone, L.; Romaniello, M.; Storm, J.

    2010-01-01

    We present a new method to estimate the absolute ages of stellar systems. This method is based on the difference in magnitude between the main-sequence turnoff (MSTO) and a well-defined knee located along the lower main sequence (MSK). This feature is caused by the collisionally induced absorption of molecular hydrogen, and it can easily be identified in near-infrared (NIR) and in optical-NIR color-magnitude diagrams of stellar systems. We took advantage of deep and accurate NIR images collected with the Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics Demonstrator temporarily available on the Very Large Telescope and of optical images collected with the Advanced Camera for Surveys Wide Field Camera on the Hubble Space Telescope and with ground-based telescopes to estimate the absolute age of the globular NGC 3201 using both the MSTO and the Δ(MSTO-MSK). We have adopted a new set of cluster isochrones, and we found that the absolute ages based on the two methods agree to within 1σ. However, the errors of the ages based on the Δ(MSTO-MSK) method are potentially more than a factor of 2 smaller, since they are not affected by uncertainties in cluster distance or reddening. Current isochrones appear to predict slightly bluer (≈0.05 mag) NIR and optical-NIR colors than observed for magnitudes fainter than the MSK. Based on near infrared observations made with ESO telescopes SOFI at NTT, La Silla; MAD at VLT Paranal, projects: 66.D-0557, 074.D-0655, ID96406, and with the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) telescope ISPI at 4m Blanco, La Serena. Based on optical data collected with ESO telescopes and retrieved from the ESO Science Archive Facility. This research used the facilities of the Canadian Astronomy Data Centre operated by the National Research Council of Canada with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  2. Dating Pupae of the Blow Fly Calliphora vicina Robineau–Desvoidy 1830 (Diptera: Calliphoridae for Post Mortem Interval—Estimation: Validation of Molecular Age Markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara K. Zajac

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Determining the age of juvenile blow flies is one of the key tasks of forensic entomology when providing evidence for the minimum post mortem interval. While the age determination of blow fly larvae is well established using morphological parameters, the current study focuses on molecular methods for estimating the age of blow flies during the metamorphosis in the pupal stage, which lasts about half the total juvenile development. It has already been demonstrated in several studies that the intraspecific variance in expression of so far used genes in blow flies is often too high to assign a certain expression level to a distinct age, leading to an inaccurate prediction. To overcome this problem, we previously identified new markers, which show a very sharp age dependent expression course during pupal development of the forensically-important blow fly Calliphora vicina Robineau–Desvoidy 1830 (Diptera: Calliphoridae by analyzing massive parallel sequencing (MPS generated transcriptome data. We initially designed and validated two quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR assays for each of 15 defined pupal ages representing a daily progress during the total pupal development if grown at 17 °C. We also investigated whether the performance of these assays is affected by the ambient temperature, when rearing pupae of C. vicina at three different constant temperatures—namely 17 °C, 20 °C and 25 °C. A temperature dependency of the performance could not be observed, except for one marker. Hence, for each of the defined development landmarks, we can present gene expression profiles of one to two markers defining the mentioned progress in development.

  3. Plasma creatinine levels, estimated glomerular filtration rate and carotid intima media thickness in middle-aged women: a population based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentile, M; Panico, S; Mattiello, A; de Michele, M; Iannuzzi, A; Jossa, F; Marotta, G; Rubba, P

    2014-06-01

    The relationships between high Creatinine (Cr) levels or low estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) and common carotid Intima Media thickness (IMT) have been evaluated in a population-based cohort study in women, aged 30-69 (Progetto ATENA). Serum Cr and eGFR were measured in 310 women, as a part of 5.062. In this group carotid ultrasound examination (B-Mode imaging) was performed and mean max IMT was calculated. Women were classified by Cr levels >1 mg/dL or eGFR Women with Cr > 1 mg/dL (90th percentile of creatinine distribution) or eGFR less than 56 ml/min (5th percentile of eGFR distribution) had relatively more carotid plaques as compared to the rest of the cohort. Multivariate logistic analysis, after adjustment for age, demonstrated a significant association between Cr (>1 mg/dL) and IMT (≥1.2 mm): OR 4.12 (C.I 1.22-13.86), p = 0.022; or eGFR (women, independently of age, suggest the value of screening for early carotid disease in asymptomatic middle aged-women with mild renal insufficiency, in order to predict those at relatively higher risk for future cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Evolution Of Chemical Conditions And Estimated Plutonium Solubility In The Residual Waste Layer During Post-Closure Aging Of Tank 18

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denham, M.

    2012-01-01

    This document updates the Eh-pH transitions from grout aging simulations and the plutonium waste release model of Denham (2007, Rev. 1) based on new data. New thermodynamic data for cementitious minerals are used for the grout simulations. Newer thermodynamic data, recommended by plutonium experts (Plutonium Solubility Peer Review Report, LA-UR-12-00079), are used to estimate solubilities of plutonium at various pore water compositions expected during grout aging. In addition, a new grout formula is used in the grout aging simulations and apparent solubilities of coprecipitated plutonium are estimated using data from analysis of Tank 18 residual waste. The conceptual model of waste release and the grout aging simulations are done in a manner similar to that of Denham (2007, Rev. 1). It is assumed that the pore fluid composition passing from the tank grout into the residual waste layer controls the solubility, and hence the waste release concentration of plutonium. Pore volumes of infiltrating fluid of an assumed composition are reacted with a hypothetical grout block using The Geochemist's Workbench(reg s ign) and changes in pore fluid chemistry correspond to the number of pore fluid volumes reacted. As in the earlier document, this results in three states of grout pore fluid composition throughout the simulation period that are termed Reduced Region II, Oxidized Region II, and Oxidized Region III. The one major difference from the earlier document is that pyrite is used to account for reducing capacity of the tank grout rather than pyrrhotite. This poises Eh at -0.47 volts during Reduced Region II. The major transitions in pore fluid composition are shown. Plutonium solubilities are estimated for discrete PuO2(am,hyd) particles and for plutonium coprecipitated with iron phases in the residual waste. Thermodynamic data for plutonium from the Nuclear Energy Agency are used to estimate the solubilities of the discrete particles for the three stages of pore fluid

  5. Comparison of administrative and survey data for estimating vitamin A supplementation and deworming coverage of children under five years of age in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janmohamed, Amynah; Doledec, David

    2017-07-01

    To compare administrative coverage data with results from household coverage surveys for vitamin A supplementation (VAS) and deworming campaigns conducted during 2010-2015 in 12 African countries. Paired t-tests examined differences between administrative and survey coverage for 52 VAS and 34 deworming dyads. Independent t-tests measured VAS and deworming coverage differences between data sources for door-to-door and fixed-site delivery strategies and VAS coverage differences between 6- to 11-month and 12- to 59-month age group. For VAS, administrative coverage was higher than survey estimates in 47 of 52 (90%) campaign rounds, with a mean difference of 16.1% (95% CI: 9.5-22.7; P < 0.001). For deworming, administrative coverage exceeded survey estimates in 31 of 34 (91%) comparisons, with a mean difference of 29.8% (95% CI: 16.9-42.6; P < 0.001). Mean ± SD differences in coverage between administrative and survey data were 12.2% ± 22.5% for the door-to-door delivery strategy and 25.9% ± 24.7% for the fixed-site model (P = 0.06). For deworming, mean ± SD differences in coverage between data sources were 28.1% ± 43.5% and 33.1% ± 17.9% for door-to-door and fixed-site distribution, respectively (P = 0.64). VAS administrative coverage was higher than survey estimates in 37 of 49 (76%) comparisons for the 6- to 11-month age group and 45 of 48 (94%) comparisons for the 12- to 59-month age group. Reliance on health facility data alone for calculating VAS and deworming coverage may mask low coverage and prevent measures to improve programmes. Countries should periodically validate administrative coverage estimates with population-based methods. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Application of hydrogeology and groundwater-age estimates to assess the travel time of groundwater at the site of a landfill to the Mahomet Aquifer, near Clinton, Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Robert T.; Buszka, Paul M.

    2016-03-02

    The U.S. Geological Survey used interpretations of hydrogeologic conditions and tritium-based groundwater age estimates to assess the travel time of groundwater at a landfill site near Clinton, Illinois (the “Clinton site”) where a chemical waste unit (CWU) was proposed to be within the Clinton landfill unit #3 (CLU#3). Glacial deposits beneath the CWU consist predominantly of low-permeability silt- and clay-rich till interspersed with thin (typically less than 2 feet in thickness) layers of more permeable deposits, including the Upper and Lower Radnor Till Sands and the Organic Soil unit. These glacial deposits are about 170 feet thick and overlie the Mahomet Sand Member of the Banner Formation. The Mahomet aquifer is composed of the Mahomet Sand Member and is used for water supply in much of east-central Illinois.Eight tritium analyses of water from seven wells were used to evaluate the overall age of recharge to aquifers beneath the Clinton site. Groundwater samples were collected from six monitoring wells on or adjacent to the CLU#3 that were open to glacial deposits above the Mahomet aquifer (the upper and lower parts of the Radnor Till Member and the Organic Soil unit) and one proximal production well (approximately 0.5 miles from the CLU#3) that is screened in the Mahomet aquifer. The tritium-based age estimates were computed with a simplifying, piston-flow assumption: that groundwater moves in discrete packets to the sampled interval by advection, without hydrodynamic dispersion or mixing.Tritium concentrations indicate a recharge age of at least 59 years (pre-1953 recharge) for water sampled from deposits below the upper part of the Radnor Till Member at the CLU#3, with older water expected at progressively greater depth in the tills. The largest tritium concentration from a well sampled by this study (well G53S; 0.32 ± 0.10 tritium units) was in groundwater from a sand deposit in the upper part of the Radnor Till Member; the shallowest permeable unit

  7. Challenges Associated with Estimating Utility in Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Novel Regression Analysis to Capture the Bilateral Nature of the Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Robert; Reason, Timothy; Trueman, David; Wickstead, Rose; Kusel, Jeanette; Jasilek, Adam; Claxton, Lindsay; Taylor, Matthew; Pulikottil-Jacob, Ruth

    2017-10-01

    The estimation of utility values for the economic evaluation of therapies for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a particular challenge. Previous economic models in wet AMD have been criticized for failing to capture the bilateral nature of wet AMD by modelling visual acuity (VA) and utility values associated with the better-seeing eye only. Here we present a de novo regression analysis using generalized estimating equations (GEE) applied to a previous dataset of time trade-off (TTO)-derived utility values from a sample of the UK population that wore contact lenses to simulate visual deterioration in wet AMD. This analysis allows utility values to be estimated as a function of VA in both the better-seeing eye (BSE) and worse-seeing eye (WSE). VAs in both the BSE and WSE were found to be statistically significant (p regression analysis provides a possible source of utility values to allow future economic models to capture the quality of life impact of changes in VA in both eyes. Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Limited.

  8. Winding up the molecular clock in the genus Carabus (Coleoptera: Carabidae: assessment of methodological decisions on rate and node age estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andújar Carmelo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rates of molecular evolution are known to vary across taxa and among genes, and this requires rate calibration for each specific dataset based on external information. Calibration is sensitive to evolutionary model parameters, partitioning schemes and clock model. However, the way in which these and other analytical aspects affect both the rates and the resulting clade ages from calibrated phylogenies are not yet well understood. To investigate these aspects we have conducted calibration analyses for the genus Carabus (Coleoptera, Carabidae on five mitochondrial and four nuclear DNA fragments with 7888 nt total length, testing different clock models and partitioning schemes to select the most suitable using Bayes Factors comparisons. Results We used these data to investigate the effect of ambiguous character and outgroup inclusion on both the rates of molecular evolution and the TMRCA of Carabus. We found considerable variation in rates of molecular evolution depending on the fragment studied (ranging from 5.02% in cob to 0.26% divergence/My in LSU-A, but also on analytical conditions. Alternative choices of clock model, partitioning scheme, treatment of ambiguous characters, and outgroup inclusion resulted in rate increments ranging from 28% (HUWE1 to 1000% (LSU-B and ITS2 and increments in the TMRCA of Carabus ranging from 8.4% (cox1-A to 540% (ITS2. Results support an origin of the genus Carabus during the Oligocene in the Eurasian continent followed by a Miocene differentiation that originated all main extant lineages. Conclusions The combination of several genes is proposed as the best strategy to minimise both the idiosyncratic behaviors of individual markers and the effect of analytical aspects in rate and age estimations. Our results highlight the importance of estimating rates of molecular evolution for each specific dataset, selecting for optimal clock and partitioning models as well as other methodological issues

  9. Bone age estimation and prediction of final height in patients with β-thalassaemia major: a comparison between the two most common methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christoforidis, Athanasios; Katzos, George; Athanassiou-Metaxa, Miranda; Badouraki, Maria

    2007-01-01

    Thalassaemic patients are in need of frequent assessment of bone age because of growth failure and pubertal disorders. To compare the ''rapid'' Greulich and Pyle (G and P) method with the third edition of the Tanner and Whitehouse (TW3) method for determining skeletal maturity and predicting final height in thalassaemic patients. A total of 191 radiographs from 58 patients (28 male, 30 female) were retrospectively evaluated by two investigators, one for each method. In 47 radiographs from 15 patients having attained their adult height, predicted final height was calculated according to each method. The mean bone ages determined by both the G and P and TW3 methods were lower than mean chronological age, although the differences were not statistically significant (10.04 ± 3.69 years and 9.98 ± 3.39 years vs. 10.78 ± 3.96 years, respectively). Both methods had a tendency to over-estimate final height. Overall, the TW3 method seemed to be more accurate than the G and P method (mean absolute error 3.21 ± 2.51 years vs. 3.99 ± 2.99 years, respectively, P=0.048). The same method should be used when serial assessments are performed, as both methods provide similarly reliable, although not equivalent, results. The TW3 height prediction method seemed to be more accurate in patients with β-thalassaemia major than the G and P method, albeit with a large confidence interval. (orig.)

  10. Implications of S1 tephra findings in Dead Sea and Tayma palaeolake sediments for marine reservoir age estimation and palaeoclimate synchronisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neugebauer, Ina; Wulf, Sabine; Schwab, Markus J.; Serb, Johanna; Plessen, Birgit; Appelt, Oona; Brauer, Achim

    2017-08-01

    Here we report on the first findings of a cryptotephra in the Holocene lacustrine sediment records of the Dead Sea and Tayma palaeolake (NW Arabian Peninsula). The major element glass composition of this rhyolitic tephra is identical to the distal 'S1' tephra layer identified in the Yammoûneh palaeolake (Lebanon), in a marine sediment record from the SE Levantine basin and in the Sodmein Cave archaeological site in Egypt. The S1 tephra corresponds to the early Holocene 'Dikkartın' dome eruption of the Erciyes Dağ volcano in central Anatolia (Turkey) and has been dated in the marine record at 8830 ± 140 cal yr BP. We present new age estimates of the S1 tephra based on radiocarbon dating of terrestrial plant remains and pollen concentrates revealing ages of 8939 ± 83 cal yr BP in the Dead Sea sediments and 9041 ± 254 cal yr BP in Tayma. The precise date from the Dead Sea allows refining the early Holocene marine reservoir age in the SE Levantine Sea to ca. 320 ± 50 years. Synchronisation of marine and terrestrial palaeoclimate records in the eastern Mediterranean region using the S1 tephra further suggests a time-transgressive expansion of the early Holocene humid period.

  11. Bone age estimation and prediction of final height in patients with {beta}-thalassaemia major: a comparison between the two most common methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christoforidis, Athanasios; Katzos, George; Athanassiou-Metaxa, Miranda [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 1st Paediatric Department, Thessaloniki (Greece); Badouraki, Maria [Ippokratio Hospital, Paediatric Radiology Department, Thessaloniki (Greece)

    2007-12-15

    Thalassaemic patients are in need of frequent assessment of bone age because of growth failure and pubertal disorders. To compare the ''rapid'' Greulich and Pyle (G and P) method with the third edition of the Tanner and Whitehouse (TW3) method for determining skeletal maturity and predicting final height in thalassaemic patients. A total of 191 radiographs from 58 patients (28 male, 30 female) were retrospectively evaluated by two investigators, one for each method. In 47 radiographs from 15 patients having attained their adult height, predicted final height was calculated according to each method. The mean bone ages determined by both the G and P and TW3 methods were lower than mean chronological age, although the differences were not statistically significant (10.04 {+-} 3.69 years and 9.98 {+-} 3.39 years vs. 10.78 {+-} 3.96 years, respectively). Both methods had a tendency to over-estimate final height. Overall, the TW3 method seemed to be more accurate than the G and P method (mean absolute error 3.21 {+-} 2.51 years vs. 3.99 {+-} 2.99 years, respectively, P=0.048). The same method should be used when serial assessments are performed, as both methods provide similarly reliable, although not equivalent, results. The TW3 height prediction method seemed to be more accurate in patients with {beta}-thalassaemia major than the G and P method, albeit with a large confidence interval. (orig.)

  12. Age-specific interval breast cancers in Japan. Estimation of the proper sensitivity of screening using a population-based cancer registry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Akihiko; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Kawai, Masaaki

    2008-01-01

    The age-specific sensitivity of a screening program was investigated using a population-based cancer registry as a source of false-negative cancer cases. A population-based screening program for breast cancer was run using either clinical breast examinations (CBE) alone or mammography combined with CBE in the Miyagi Prefecture from 1997 to 2002. Interval cancers were newly identified by linking the screening records to the population-based cancer registry to estimate the number of false-negative cases of screening program. Among 112071 women screened by mammography combined with CBE, the number of detected cancers, false-negative cases and the sensitivity were 289, 22 and 92.9%, respectively, based on the reports from participating municipalities. The number of newly found false-negative cases and corrected sensitivity when using the registry were 34 and 83.8%, respectively. In detected cancers, the sensitivity of screening by mammography combined with CBE in women ranging from 40 to 49 years of age based on a population-based cancer registry was much lower than that in women 50-59 and 60-69 years of age (40-49: 18, 71.4%, 50-59: 19, 85.8%, 60-69: 19, 87.2%). These data suggest that the accurate outcome of an evaluation of breast cancer screening must include the use of a population-based cancer registry for detecting false-negative cases. Screening by mammography combined with CBE may therefore not be sufficiently sensitive for women ranging from 40 to 49 years of age. (author)

  13. Using isotopes to constrain water flux and age estimates in snow-influenced catchments using the STARR (Spatially distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall–Runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ala-aho

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Tracer-aided hydrological models are increasingly used to reveal fundamentals of runoff generation processes and water travel times in catchments. Modelling studies integrating stable water isotopes as tracers are mostly based in temperate and warm climates, leaving catchments with strong snow influences underrepresented in the literature. Such catchments are challenging, as the isotopic tracer signals in water entering the catchments as snowmelt are typically distorted from incoming precipitation due to fractionation processes in seasonal snowpack. We used the Spatially distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall–Runoff (STARR model to simulate fluxes, storage, and mixing of water and tracers, as well as estimating water ages in three long-term experimental catchments with varying degrees of snow influence and contrasting landscape characteristics. In the context of northern catchments the sites have exceptionally long and rich data sets of hydrometric data and – most importantly – stable water isotopes for both rain and snow conditions. To adapt the STARR model for sites with strong snow influence, we used a novel parsimonious calculation scheme that takes into account the isotopic fractionation through snow sublimation and snowmelt. The modified STARR setup simulated the streamflows, isotope ratios, and snow pack dynamics quite well in all three catchments. From this, our simulations indicated contrasting median water ages and water age distributions between catchments brought about mainly by differences in topography and soil characteristics. However, the variable degree of snow influence in catchments also had a major influence on the stream hydrograph, storage dynamics, and water age distributions, which was captured by the model. Our study suggested that snow sublimation fractionation processes can be important to include in tracer-aided modelling for catchments with seasonal snowpack, while the influence of fractionation during snowmelt

  14. Otolith reading and multi-model inference for improved estimation of age and growth in the gilthead seabream Sparus aurata (L.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercier, Lény; Panfili, Jacques; Paillon, Christelle; N'diaye, Awa; Mouillot, David; Darnaude, Audrey M.

    2011-05-01

    Accurate knowledge of fish age and growth is crucial for species conservation and management of exploited marine stocks. In exploited species, age estimation based on otolith reading is routinely used for building growth curves that are used to implement fishery management models. However, the universal fit of the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) on data from commercial landings can lead to uncertainty in growth parameter inference, preventing accurate comparison of growth-based history traits between fish populations. In the present paper, we used a comprehensive annual sample of wild gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata L.) in the Gulf of Lions (France, NW Mediterranean) to test a methodology improving growth modelling for exploited fish populations. After validating the timing for otolith annual increment formation for all life stages, a comprehensive set of growth models (including VBGF) were fitted to the obtained age-length data, used as a whole or sub-divided between group 0 individuals and those coming from commercial landings (ages 1-6). Comparisons in growth model accuracy based on Akaike Information Criterion allowed assessment of the best model for each dataset and, when no model correctly fitted the data, a multi-model inference (MMI) based on model averaging was carried out. The results provided evidence that growth parameters inferred with VBGF must be used with high caution. Hence, VBGF turned to be among the less accurate for growth prediction irrespective of the dataset and its fit to the whole population, the juvenile or the adult datasets provided different growth parameters. The best models for growth prediction were the Tanaka model, for group 0 juveniles, and the MMI, for the older fish, confirming that growth differs substantially between juveniles and adults. All asymptotic models failed to correctly describe the growth of adult S. aurata, probably because of the poor representation of old individuals in the dataset. Multi

  15. How Many Words Do We Know? Practical Estimates of Vocabulary Size Dependent on Word Definition, the Degree of Language Input and the Participant’s Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brysbaert, Marc; Stevens, Michaël; Mandera, Paweł; Keuleers, Emmanuel

    2016-01-01

    Based on an analysis of the literature and a large scale crowdsourcing experiment, we estimate that an average 20-year-old native speaker of American English knows 42,000 lemmas and 4,200 non-transparent multiword expressions, derived from 11,100 word families. The numbers range from 27,000 lemmas for the lowest 5% to 52,000 for the highest 5%. Between the ages of 20 and 60, the average person learns 6,000 extra lemmas or about one new lemma every 2 days. The knowledge of the words can be as shallow as knowing that the word exists. In addition, people learn tens of thousands of inflected forms and proper nouns (names), which account for the substantially high numbers of ‘words known’ mentioned in other publications. PMID:27524974

  16. Psychohygienic estimation of features of the formation of properties of character of pupils aged 14-17 years in the dynamics of learning at modern schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serheta I.V.

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of scientific work was psychohygienic estimation of features of the formation of properties of character of pupils aged 14-17 years old in the dynamics of learning at modern schools. The studies were conducted on the basis of secondary schools in the city of Vinnitsya. Evaluation of the formation of properties of character was carried out using a personality questionnaire Mini-mult. It was determined that in the structure of personal profile of properties of character in girls aged 14-17 years during the period of study at school predominance of characterologic features according to schizoid scales (Se and pscychasthenia (Pt (block 1 of characterologic features, hypochondria (Hs and depression (D (block 2 of characterologic features, hypomania (Ma and hysteria (Hy (block 3 of characterologic features is registered. In the structure of personal profile of properties of character of boys of 14-17 years during the period of study at school predominance of characterologic properties according to psychasthenia (Pt and schizoid (Se (block 1 of characterologic features, hypochondria (Hs and depression (D (block 2, paranoid (Pa and hypomania (Ma (block 3 is registered. The results suggest the need to consider the properties of character of schoolchildren in development of health-saving technologies, sanitation measures and psychohygienic effect on the pupils’ organism.

  17. Estimated Daily Average Per Capita Water Ingestion by Child and Adult Age Categories Based on USDA's 1994-96 and 1998 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (Journal Article)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Current water ingestion estimates are important for the assessment of risk to human populations of exposure to water-borne pollutants. This paper reports mean and percentile estimates of the distributions of daily average per capita water ingestion for 12 age range groups. The a...

  18. Estimativas de herdabilidade para idade ao primeiro parto de novilhas da raça Nelore Heritability estimates for age at first calving in Nelore cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laila Talarico Dias

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Estimaram-se parâmetros genéticos para idade ao primeiro parto (IPP de, aproximadamente, 6.000 novilhas, utilizando-se três diferentes definições de grupo contemporâneo (GC. Foram considerados no modelo o efeito aleatório de animal e os efeitos fixos de GC, além dos efeitos linear e quadrático da idade da mãe da novilha ao parto (IDV. A primeira definição de grupo contemporâneo (GC1 considerou as variáveis fazenda, ano, estação de nascimento, grupo de manejo de nascimento, desmama e sobreano e tipo de serviço (monta natural, monta controlada ou inseminação artificial. A segunda definição de grupo contemporâneo (GC2 incluiu as mesmas variáveis de GC1, além de ano e estação do parto. A terceira definição de grupo contemporâneo considerou as variáveis ano e estação de nascimento, fazenda, ano e estação do parto e tipo de cobertura. As estimativas de herdabilidade para IPP foram de 0,16 ± 0,03, 0,09 ± 0,03 e 0,11 ± 0,02, considerando-se GC1, GC2 e GC3, respectivamente.Genetic parameters were estimated for, approximately, 6,000 records of age at first calving (IPP in Nelore cattle using three different definitions for contemporary group. The univariate analysis considered as fixed effect: contemporary group (GC and linear and quadratic effects of dam age (IDV. First contemporary group (GC1 was defined by farm, year and season at birth, management group at birth, weaning and yearling and mating type. Second contemporary group (GC2 included the same variables of GC1 and year and season at calving. Third contemporary group (GC3 was determined by year and season of birth, farm, year and season of calving and mating type. The heritability estimates for IPP were 0.16 ± 0.03, 0.09 ± 0.03 e 0.11 ± 0.02, respectively, to GC1, GC2 and GC3.

  19. Application of statistical shape analysis for the estimation of bone and forensic age using the shapes of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th cervical vertebrae in a young Japanese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhee, Chang-Hoon; Shin, Sang Min; Choi, Yong-Seok; Yamaguchi, Tetsutaro; Maki, Koutaro; Kim, Yong-Il; Kim, Seong-Sik; Park, Soo-Byung; Son, Woo-Sung

    2015-12-01

    From computed tomographic images, the dentocentral synchondrosis can be identified in the second cervical vertebra. This can demarcate the border between the odontoid process and the body of the 2nd cervical vertebra and serve as a good model for the prediction of bone and forensic age. Nevertheless, until now, there has been no application of the 2nd cervical vertebra based on the dentocentral synchondrosis. In this study, statistical shape analysis was used to build bone and forensic age estimation regression models. Following the principles of statistical shape analysis and principal components analysis, we used cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) to evaluate a Japanese population (35 males and 45 females, from 5 to 19 years old). The narrowest prediction intervals among the multivariate regression models were 19.63 for bone age and 2.99 for forensic age. There was no significant difference between form space and shape space in the bone and forensic age estimation models. However, for gender comparison, the bone and forensic age estimation models for males had the higher explanatory power. This study derived an improved objective and quantitative method for bone and forensic age estimation based on only the 2nd, 3rd and 4th cervical vertebral shapes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. In vivo areal modulus of elasticity estimation of the human tympanic membrane system: modelling of middle ear mechanical function in normal young and aged ears

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaihede, Michael; Liao Donghua; Gregersen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    The quasi-static elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system can be described by the areal modulus of elasticity determined by a middle ear model. The response of the tympanic membrane to quasi-static pressure changes is determined by its elastic properties. Several clinical problems are related to these, but studies are few and mostly not comparable. The elastic properties of membranes can be described by the areal modulus, and these may also be susceptible to age-related changes reflected by changes in the areal modulus. The areal modulus is determined by the relationship between membrane tension and change of the surface area relative to the undeformed surface area. A middle ear model determined the tension-strain relationship in vivo based on data from experimental pressure-volume deformations of the human tympanic membrane system. The areal modulus was determined in both a younger (n = 10) and an older (n = 10) group of normal subjects. The areal modulus for lateral and medial displacement of the tympanic membrane system was smaller in the older group (mean = 0.686 and 0.828 kN m -1 , respectively) compared to the younger group (mean = 1.066 and 1.206 kN m -1 , respectively), though not significantly (2p = 0.10 and 0.11, respectively). Based on the model the areal modulus was established describing the summated elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system. Future model improvements include exact determination of the tympanic membrane area accounting for its shape via 3D finite element analyses. In vivo estimates of Young's modulus in this study were a factor 2-3 smaller than previously found in vitro. No significant age-related differences were found in the elastic properties as expressed by the areal modulus

  1. In vivo areal modulus of elasticity estimation of the human tympanic membrane system: modelling of middle ear mechanical function in normal young and aged ears

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaihede, Michael [Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Aalborg Hospital, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg (Denmark); Liao Donghua [Centre of Excellence in Visceral Biomechanics and Pain, Aalborg Hospital, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg (Denmark); Gregersen, Hans [Centre of Excellence in Visceral Biomechanics and Pain, Aalborg Hospital, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg (Denmark)

    2007-02-07

    The quasi-static elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system can be described by the areal modulus of elasticity determined by a middle ear model. The response of the tympanic membrane to quasi-static pressure changes is determined by its elastic properties. Several clinical problems are related to these, but studies are few and mostly not comparable. The elastic properties of membranes can be described by the areal modulus, and these may also be susceptible to age-related changes reflected by changes in the areal modulus. The areal modulus is determined by the relationship between membrane tension and change of the surface area relative to the undeformed surface area. A middle ear model determined the tension-strain relationship in vivo based on data from experimental pressure-volume deformations of the human tympanic membrane system. The areal modulus was determined in both a younger (n = 10) and an older (n = 10) group of normal subjects. The areal modulus for lateral and medial displacement of the tympanic membrane system was smaller in the older group (mean = 0.686 and 0.828 kN m{sup -1}, respectively) compared to the younger group (mean = 1.066 and 1.206 kN m{sup -1}, respectively), though not significantly (2p = 0.10 and 0.11, respectively). Based on the model the areal modulus was established describing the summated elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system. Future model improvements include exact determination of the tympanic membrane area accounting for its shape via 3D finite element analyses. In vivo estimates of Young's modulus in this study were a factor 2-3 smaller than previously found in vitro. No significant age-related differences were found in the elastic properties as expressed by the areal modulus.

  2. The Y-type Brown Dwarfs: Estimates of Mass and Age from New Astrometry, Homogenized Photometry, and Near-infrared Spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leggett, S. K.; Tremblin, P.; Esplin, T. L.; Luhman, K. L.; Morley, Caroline V.

    2017-01-01

    The survey of the mid-infrared sky by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer ( WISE ) led to the discovery of extremely cold, low-mass brown dwarfs, classified as Y dwarfs, which extend the T class to lower temperatures. Twenty-four Y dwarfs are known at the time of writing. Here we present improved parallaxes for four of these, determined using Spitzer images. We give new photometry for four late-type T and three Y dwarfs and new spectra of three Y dwarfs, obtained at Gemini Observatory. We also present previously unpublished photometry taken from HST , ESO, Spitzer , and WISE archives of 11 late-type T and 9 Y dwarfs. The near-infrared data are put onto the same photometric system, forming a homogeneous data set for the coolest brown dwarfs. We compare recent models to our photometric and spectroscopic data set. We confirm that nonequilibrium atmospheric chemistry is important for these objects. Nonequilibrium cloud-free models reproduce well the near-infrared spectra and mid-infrared photometry for the warmer Y dwarfs with 425 ≤ T eff (K) ≤ 450. A small amount of cloud cover may improve the model fits in the near-infrared for the Y dwarfs with 325 ≤ T eff (K) ≤ 375. Neither cloudy nor cloud-free models reproduce the near-infrared photometry for the T eff = 250 K Y dwarf W0855. We use the mid-infrared region, where most of the flux originates, to constrain our models of W0855. We find that W0855 likely has a mass of 1.5–8 Jupiter masses and an age of 0.3–6 Gyr. The Y dwarfs with measured parallaxes are within 20 pc of the Sun and have tangential velocities typical of the thin disk. The metallicities and ages we derive for the sample are generally solar-like. We estimate that the known Y dwarfs are 3 to 20 Jupiter-mass objects with ages of 0.6–8.5 Gyr.

  3. The Y-type Brown Dwarfs: Estimates of Mass and Age from New Astrometry, Homogenized Photometry, and Near-infrared Spectroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, S. K. [Gemini Observatory, Northern Operations Center, 670 N. A’ohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Tremblin, P. [Maison de la Simulation, CEA-CNRS-INRIA-UPS-UVSQ, USR 3441, Centre d’étude de Saclay, F-91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette (France); Esplin, T. L.; Luhman, K. L. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Morley, Caroline V., E-mail: sleggett@gemini.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2017-06-20

    The survey of the mid-infrared sky by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer ( WISE ) led to the discovery of extremely cold, low-mass brown dwarfs, classified as Y dwarfs, which extend the T class to lower temperatures. Twenty-four Y dwarfs are known at the time of writing. Here we present improved parallaxes for four of these, determined using Spitzer images. We give new photometry for four late-type T and three Y dwarfs and new spectra of three Y dwarfs, obtained at Gemini Observatory. We also present previously unpublished photometry taken from HST , ESO, Spitzer , and WISE archives of 11 late-type T and 9 Y dwarfs. The near-infrared data are put onto the same photometric system, forming a homogeneous data set for the coolest brown dwarfs. We compare recent models to our photometric and spectroscopic data set. We confirm that nonequilibrium atmospheric chemistry is important for these objects. Nonequilibrium cloud-free models reproduce well the near-infrared spectra and mid-infrared photometry for the warmer Y dwarfs with 425 ≤ T {sub eff} (K) ≤ 450. A small amount of cloud cover may improve the model fits in the near-infrared for the Y dwarfs with 325 ≤ T {sub eff} (K) ≤ 375. Neither cloudy nor cloud-free models reproduce the near-infrared photometry for the T {sub eff} = 250 K Y dwarf W0855. We use the mid-infrared region, where most of the flux originates, to constrain our models of W0855. We find that W0855 likely has a mass of 1.5–8 Jupiter masses and an age of 0.3–6 Gyr. The Y dwarfs with measured parallaxes are within 20 pc of the Sun and have tangential velocities typical of the thin disk. The metallicities and ages we derive for the sample are generally solar-like. We estimate that the known Y dwarfs are 3 to 20 Jupiter-mass objects with ages of 0.6–8.5 Gyr.

  4. An "up, no change, or down" system: Time-dependent expression of mRNAs in contused skeletal muscle of rats used for wound age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jun-Hong; Zhu, Xi-Yan; Dong, Ta-Na; Zhang, Xiao-Hong; Liu, Qi-Qing; Li, San-Qiang; Du, Qiu-Xiang

    2017-03-01

    The combined use of multiple markers is considered a promising strategy in estimating the age of wounds. We sought to develop an "up, no change, or down" system and to explore how to combine and use various parameters. In total, 78 Sprague Dawley rats were divided randomly into a control group and contusion groups of 4-, 8-, 12-, 16-, 20-, 24-, 28-, 32-, 36-, 40-, 44-, and 48-h post-injury (n=6 per group). A contusion was produced in the right limb of the rats under diethyl ether anesthesia by a drop-ball technique; the animals were sacrificed at certain time points thereafter, using a lethal dose of pentobarbital. Levels of PUM2, TAB2, GJC1, and CHRNA1 mRNAs were detected in contused muscle using real-time PCR. An up, no change, or down system was developed with the relative quantities of the four mRNAs recorded as black, dark gray, or light gray boxes, representing up-, no change, or down-regulation of the gene of interest during wound repair. The four transcripts were combined and used as a marker cluster for color model analysis of each contusion group. Levels of PUM2, TAB2, and GJC1 mRNAs decreased, whereas that of CHRNA1 increased in wound repair (Psystem was adequate to distinguish most time groups with the color model. Thus, the proposed up, no change, or down system provide the means to determine the minimal periods of early wounds. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The effect of a sonographic estimated fetal weight on the risk of cesarean delivery in macrosomic and small for gestational-age infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Kathy C; Williamson, John; Gupta, Simi; Lam-Rachlin, Jennifer; Saltzman, Daniel H; Rebarber, Andrei; Fox, Nathan S

    2017-05-01

    To assess the association of a sonographic estimated fetal weight (sonoEFW) with the risk of cesarean delivery in women with macrosomic or small for gestational age (SGA) infants. Retrospective cohort of singleton deliveries >24 weeks by one MFM practice from 2005 to 2014. We included all patients who delivered an infant with macrosomia (birth weight ≥4000 g) or SGA (birth weight cesarean delivery between patients who did and did not have a sonoEFW within four weeks of delivery. Regression analysis was performed to control for any differences in baseline characteristics. In patients with macrosomic infants (n = 352), the risk of cesarean delivery was significantly higher in the sonoEFW group (45.3% versus 17.6%, aOR 2.144, 95% CI: 1.06-4.34). When we restricted the analysis to the subgroup of 265 patients who attempted vaginal delivery, our results were similar (22.3% versus 9.1%, aOR 2.73, 95% CI: 1.15-6.48). In patients with an SGA infant (n = 614), the risk of cesarean delivery was not higher in the sonoEFW group (37.4% versus 24.1%, aOR 1.23, 95% CI: 0.80-2.07), nor in those who attempted vaginal delivery (19.8% versus 13.7%, aOR 1.17, 95% CI: 0.62-2.21). A sonoEFW prior to delivery is independently associated with cesarean delivery in women with macrosomic infants, but not those with SGA infants. This should be considered when deciding to obtain a sonoEFW at the end of pregnancy, particularly if not for an accepted indication.

  6. Race/ethnic disparities in reproductive age: an examination of ovarian reserve estimates across four race/ethnic groups of healthy, regularly cycling women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleil, Maria E; Gregorich, Steven E; Adler, Nancy E; Sternfeld, Barbara; Rosen, Mitchell P; Cedars, Marcelle I

    2014-01-01

    To determine whether reproductive age, as indexed by a validated marker of ovarian reserve (antimüllerian hormone [AMH]), varies among women of different race/ethnic backgrounds. Cross-sectional study. Community-based sample. Multiethnic sample of 947 (277 white, 237 African American, 220 Latina, and 213 Chinese) healthy and regularly cycling premenopausal women, ages 25-45. None. AMH level. A multivariate model was fit examining race/ethnicity, covariates, nonlinear terms for age (age(2), age(3)), and body mass index (BMI(2), BMI(3)), and two-way interactions between race/ethnicity and each of the other predictor variables in relation to AMH. After backward elimination, significant effects included race/ethnicity (F = 8.45), age (F = 349.94), race/ethnicity-by-linear age interaction (F = 4.67), age(2) (F = 31.61), and BMI (F = 10.69). Inspection of the significant race/ethnicity-by-linear age interaction showed AMH levels were consistently lower among Latina women compared with white women across all ages, whereas AMH levels were lower among African American and Chinese women compared with the white women at younger and middle ages, respectively. The AMH levels were higher among African American compared with Latina and Chinese women at older ages. Although the results must be considered preliminary, the findings are twofold: African American women may have lower AMH levels at younger ages but experience less of a reduction in AMH with advancing age, and Latina and Chinese women compared with white women may have lower AMH levels, marking a lower ovarian reserve and a possibly increased risk for earlier menopause. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Fetal cardiac function in late-onset intrauterine growth restriction vs small-for-gestational age, as defined by estimated fetal weight, cerebroplacental ratio and uterine artery Doppler.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Cruz, M; Cruz-Lemini, M; Fernández, M T; Parra, J A; Bartrons, J; Gómez-Roig, M D; Crispi, F; Gratacós, E

    2015-10-01

    Among late-onset small fetuses, a combination of estimated fetal weight (EFW), cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) and mean uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI) can predict a subgroup of fetuses with poor perinatal outcome; however, the association of these criteria with fetal cardiac structure and function is unknown. Our aim was to determine the presence and severity of signs indicating cardiac dysfunction in small fetuses, classified as intrauterine growth-restricted (IUGR) or small-for-gestational age (SGA), according to EFW, CPR and UtA-PI. A cohort of 209 late-onset small fetuses that were delivered > 34 weeks of gestation was divided in two categories: SGA (n = 59) if EFW was between the 3(rd) and 9(th) centiles with normal CPR and UtA-PI; and IUGR (n = 150) if EFW was  95(th) centile. The small population was compared with 150 appropriately grown fetuses (controls). Fetal cardiac morphometry and function were assessed by echocardiography using two-dimensional M-mode, conventional and tissue Doppler. Compared with controls, both IUGR and SGA fetuses showed larger and more globular hearts (mean left